output/event_timeline.json

[
  {
    "date": "2024-11-05",
    "title": "美国大选结果落地",
    "type": "geopolitical",
    "icon": "🗳️",
    "impact": "bearish",
    "factors_affected": ["vix_lag1", "usd_index", "news_oil_sentiment"],
    "factor_changes": {"vix_lag1": -3.2, "usd_index": 1.5, "news_oil_sentiment": -0.3},
    "risk_signal": "VIX回落3.2点 → 波动率预测下降 → 风险等级从 High 降至 Medium",
    "hedging_action": "美元走强压制油价，建议航空/物流行业降低对冲比例至50%",
    "narrative": "特朗普当选后美元走强，VIX回落。传统能源政策预期利好供给端，但强美元压制以美元计价的大宗商品。"
  },
  {
    "date": "2024-10-07",
    "title": "巴以冲突一周年，中东局势升级",
    "type": "geopolitical",
    "icon": "⚔️",
    "impact": "bullish",
    "factors_affected": ["vix_lag1", "supply_saudi", "news_geo_tone"],
    "factor_changes": {"vix_lag1": 5.8, "supply_saudi": -0.3, "news_geo_tone": 1.2},
    "risk_signal": "VIX飙升5.8点 → 地缘风险激增 → Regime切换至「地缘冲击」",
    "hedging_action": "建议全行业对冲比例提升至75-95%，优先使用看跌期权保护下行",
    "narrative": "中东地区武装冲突升级，市场恐慌情绪飙升。沙特产量微降，供给不确定性增大，油价短期受到支撑。"
  },
  {
    "date": "2024-06-02",
    "title": "OPEC+宣布2025年逐步增产计划",
    "type": "supply",
    "icon": "🛢️",
    "impact": "bearish",
    "factors_affected": ["supply_saudi", "Brent_spot", "mom1m_lag1"],
    "factor_changes": {"supply_saudi": 0.5, "Brent_spot": -3.2, "mom1m_lag1": -0.04},
    "risk_signal": "供给增加预期 → Brent下跌3.2% → 动量转负 → 方向偏置「Downward」",
    "hedging_action": "上游油气行业建议增加期货锁价至80%，锁定当前价位",
    "narrative": "OPEC+计划从Q4开始逐步恢复减产量，月均增产约40万桶/日。市场提前定价增产预期，短期利空。"
  },
  {
    "date": "2025-03-10",
    "title": "OPEC+延续减产政策至Q2",
    "type": "supply",
    "icon": "🛢️",
    "impact": "bullish",
    "factors_affected": ["supply_saudi", "Brent_spot", "rig_count_us_new"],
    "factor_changes": {"supply_saudi": -0.2, "Brent_spot": 2.1, "rig_count_us_new": -5},
    "risk_signal": "减产延续 → 供给偏紧 → 风险偏置转为「Upward」",
    "hedging_action": "航空/化工行业建议提高对冲至80%以上，锁定燃料成本",
    "narrative": "沙特主导OPEC+继续执行减产策略，美国活跃钻井数同步下降，全球供给端进一步收紧。"
  },
  {
    "date": "2024-08-05",
    "title": "日元套利交易平仓引发全球金融动荡",
    "type": "macro",
    "icon": "📉",
    "impact": "bearish",
    "factors_affected": ["vix_lag1", "usd_index", "pmi_us_mfg"],
    "factor_changes": {"vix_lag1": 12.5, "usd_index": -2.3, "pmi_us_mfg": -1.8},
    "risk_signal": "VIX暴涨12.5点 → 系统性风险预警 → Regime: 「金融动荡」",
    "hedging_action": "全行业紧急提升对冲至90%+，推荐看跌期权保护极端下行",
    "narrative": "日本央行加息触发日元套利交易大规模平仓，全球股市暴跌，VIX飙升至2020年来新高。"
  },
  {
    "date": "2023-10-07",
    "title": "巴以冲突爆发",
    "type": "geopolitical",
    "icon": "💥",
    "impact": "bullish",
    "factors_affected": ["vix_lag1", "Brent_spot", "news_geo_tone"],
    "factor_changes": {"vix_lag1": 4.2, "Brent_spot": 5.8, "news_geo_tone": 1.8},
    "risk_signal": "中东事件触发 → Brent+5.8% → 地缘风险因子激增 → 风险等级: High",
    "hedging_action": "航空/物流紧急对冲至85%，化工行业关注石脑油价差",
    "narrative": "哈马斯突袭以色列，中东局势骤然紧张。市场担忧冲突扩大至伊朗，油价跳涨近6%。"
  },
  {
    "date": "2022-02-24",
    "title": "俄乌战争爆发",
    "type": "geopolitical",
    "icon": "🔥",
    "impact": "bullish",
    "factors_affected": ["vix_lag1", "Brent_spot", "natgas_spot_henry", "supply_saudi"],
    "factor_changes": {"vix_lag1": 8.5, "Brent_spot": 25.3, "natgas_spot_henry": 4.2},
    "risk_signal": "极端地缘冲击 → Brent飙升25% → Regime: 「供给冲击」→ 风险: Critical",
    "hedging_action": "全行业100%对冲，优先使用期货锁价，考虑远期合约延伸至12个月",
    "narrative": "俄罗斯入侵乌克兰，全球能源供应链面临二战以来最大冲击。欧盟对俄制裁导致油气价格暴涨。"
  },
  {
    "date": "2020-04-20",
    "title": "WTI原油期货跌至负值 (-$37)",
    "type": "demand",
    "icon": "📉",
    "impact": "bearish",
    "factors_affected": ["vix_lag1", "pmi_us_mfg", "ipi_us", "mom1m_lag1"],
    "factor_changes": {"vix_lag1": 30.0, "pmi_us_mfg": -12.5, "ipi_us": -15.0},
    "risk_signal": "需求崩盘 → VIX至极端 → Regime: 「需求崩塌」→ 所有模型发出极端预警",
    "hedging_action": "上游油气: 100%期货锁价保护收入; 航空: 暂停新增对冲，等待底部确认",
    "narrative": "COVID-19全球封锁导致需求暴减2000万桶/日。库存空间耗尽，WTI期货史上首次跌至负值。"
  },
  {
    "date": "2025-01-20",
    "title": "特朗普就任: 能源政策转向",
    "type": "policy",
    "icon": "🏛️",
    "impact": "bearish",
    "factors_affected": ["rig_count_us_new", "usd_index", "news_oil_sentiment"],
    "factor_changes": {"rig_count_us_new": 8, "usd_index": 0.8, "news_oil_sentiment": -0.2},
    "risk_signal": "钻井增加预期 → 美国供给增长 → 中期利空 → 风险偏置: Downward",
    "hedging_action": "航空业利好(油价预期偏弱)，可适当降低对冲比例; 上游需锁定利润",
    "narrative": "新政府推动\"Drill Baby Drill\"政策，放松环保限制。预期美国页岩油产量将进一步增长。"
  },
  {
    "date": "2022-10-05",
    "title": "OPEC+减产200万桶/日",
    "type": "supply",
    "icon": "🛢️",
    "impact": "bullish",
    "factors_affected": ["supply_saudi", "Brent_spot", "mom1m_lag1"],
    "factor_changes": {"supply_saudi": -1.2, "Brent_spot": 7.5, "mom1m_lag1": 0.06},
    "risk_signal": "大幅减产 → 供给收紧 → Brent+7.5% → 风险等级: High(上行)",
    "hedging_action": "航空/化工: 紧急追加对冲至90%; 物流: 考虑燃油附加费传导",
    "narrative": "OPEC+出人意料地宣布减产200万桶/日(实际约100万桶)。美国强烈谴责，地缘博弈加剧。"
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-03-15",
    "title": "美联储维持利率不变，关注关税影响",
    "type": "macro",
    "icon": "🏦",
    "impact": "neutral",
    "factors_affected": ["usd_index", "vix_lag1", "pmi_us_mfg"],
    "factor_changes": {"usd_index": -0.3, "vix_lag1": -1.2, "pmi_us_mfg": 0.5},
    "risk_signal": "利率稳定 → 不确定性小幅下降 → VIX回落 → 风险等级维持 High",
    "hedging_action": "当前不建议调整对冲策略，等待4月关税政策落地",
    "narrative": "美联储3月会议维持利率5.25-5.50%不变，鲍威尔强调关税对通胀的潜在影响需进一步观察。"
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-02-10",
    "title": "美国对中国商品加征关税至145%",
    "type": "macro",
    "icon": "💹",
    "impact": "bearish",
    "factors_affected": ["pmi_us_mfg", "usd_index", "ipi_us", "news_oil_sentiment"],
    "factor_changes": {"pmi_us_mfg": -2.3, "usd_index": 1.8, "ipi_us": -1.5},
    "risk_signal": "制造业PMI下降 → 需求预期转弱 → Regime: 「需求崩塌」→ 风险: High",
    "hedging_action": "化工/制造: 维持高对冲(85%+); 航空: 关注需求下行传导风险",
    "narrative": "中美贸易摩擦升级，追加关税引发全球供应链重组担忧。制造业PMI大幅下滑，需求前景黯淡。"
  }
]