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Update app.py
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app.py
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@@ -10,7 +10,7 @@ warnings.filterwarnings("ignore")
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import os
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# Financial Modeling Prep API Key
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FMP_API_KEY
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# Function to get data from Finviz
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def get_finviz_data(ticker):
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# Function to calculate beta
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def calculate_beta(ticker, start_date="2018-01-01", end_date=None, market_ticker="^GSPC"):
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stock_data = yf.download(ticker, start=start_date, end=end_date
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market_data = yf.download(market_ticker, start=start_date, end=end_date
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combined_data = pd.concat([stock_returns, market_returns], axis=1).dropna()
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combined_data.columns = ['Stock_Returns', 'Market_Returns']
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# Function to get risk-free rate
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def get_risk_free_rate(risk_free_rate_ticker="^TYX"):
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treasury_data = yf.download(risk_free_rate_ticker, period="1d")
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return risk_free_rate
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# Function to calculate market risk premium
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def calculate_market_risk_premium(market_ticker="^GSPC", start_date="2018-01-01", end_date=None, risk_free_rate_ticker="^TYX"):
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market_data = yf.download(market_ticker, start=start_date, end=end_date
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average_annual_market_return = market_returns.mean() * 252
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risk_free_rate = get_risk_free_rate(risk_free_rate_ticker)
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@@ -220,7 +242,7 @@ def get_dcf_valuation(ticker, api_key):
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def get_levered_dcf_valuation(ticker, api_key):
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url = f"https://financialmodelingprep.com/api/v4/advanced_levered_discounted_cash_flow?symbol={ticker}&apikey={api_key}"
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response = requests.get(url)
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if
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data = response.json()
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if data:
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return data[0]['equityValuePerShare']
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@@ -324,7 +346,13 @@ def perform_dcf_analysis(ticker, start_date="2018-01-01", end_date=None, market_
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required_return = calculate_required_return(risk_free_rate, beta, market_risk_premium)
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cost_of_equity = calculate_cost_of_equity(beta, market_risk_premium, risk_free_rate)
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outstanding_shares = get_outstanding_shares(ticker)
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market_cap = current_price * outstanding_shares
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@@ -367,48 +395,26 @@ st.title("Stock Price Fair Valuation with DCF")
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# Explanation of the analysis
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st.markdown("""
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This app performs a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis to estimate the intrinsic value of a stock.
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It calculates the present value of expected future cash flows, factoring in growth rates, beta, cost of equity, cost of debt, and market conditions.
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""")
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#st.markdown("### DCF Model Overview")
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with st.expander("DCF Analysis Overview", expanded=False):
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st.latex(r"""
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\text{DCF} = \sum_{t=1}^{n} \frac{\text{FCF}_t}{(1 + r)^t} + \frac{\text{TV}}{(1 + r)^n}
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""")
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# st.markdown("""
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# Where:
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# - \( FCF_t \) is the Free Cash Flow in year \( t \)
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# - \( r \) is the discount rate (WACC)
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# - \( n \) is the number of projected years
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# - \( TV \) is the Terminal Value
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# """)
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st.markdown("""
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- **Cost of Equity** is calculated using CAPM, considering the risk-free rate, the stock’s beta, and the market risk premium.
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- **Cost of Debt** is the effective interest rate on debt, adjusted for the tax benefit.
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- **WACC** combines the cost of equity and after-tax cost of debt, weighted by the company’s capital structure. It’s used as the discount rate in the DCF analysis.
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- **Free Cash Flow (FCF)** is the cash available after capital expenditures, used for projecting future cash flows.
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- **Terminal Value (TV)** estimates the company’s value beyond the forecast period using a terminal growth rate, which is a conservative long-term rate.
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- **Growth Rates** are the analysts' forecasts for EPS growth over the next 5 years, which are used to project near-term FCF.
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- **Intrinsic Value per Share** is the total present value of future cash flows divided by shares outstanding.
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- **Margin of Safety** is the difference between the intrinsic value and the market price, providing a buffer for investment decisions.
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For more details on the methodology, [click here](https://entreprenerdly.com/calculate-fair-value-of-stocks-using-dcf-with-public-data/).
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""")
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with st.sidebar:
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with st.expander("How to Use the App", expanded=False):
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st.markdown("""
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risk_free_rate_ticker = st.text_input("Risk-Free Rate Ticker", "^TYX", help="Enter the ticker for the risk-free rate, e.g., '^TYX' for the 30-year Treasury yield.")
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if st.sidebar.button("Run DCF Analysis"):
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hide_streamlit_style = """
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<style>
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footer {visibility: hidden;}
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</style>
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"""
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st.markdown(hide_streamlit_style, unsafe_allow_html=True)
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import os
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# Financial Modeling Prep API Key
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FMP_API_KEY = os.getenv("FMP_API_KEY")
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# Function to get data from Finviz
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def get_finviz_data(ticker):
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# Function to calculate beta
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def calculate_beta(ticker, start_date="2018-01-01", end_date=None, market_ticker="^GSPC"):
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stock_data = yf.download(ticker, start=start_date, end=end_date, auto_adjust=False)
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market_data = yf.download(market_ticker, start=start_date, end=end_date, auto_adjust=False)
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if isinstance(stock_data.columns, pd.MultiIndex):
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stock_data.columns = stock_data.columns.get_level_values(0)
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if isinstance(market_data.columns, pd.MultiIndex):
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market_data.columns = market_data.columns.get_level_values(0)
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if stock_data.empty or market_data.empty:
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raise ValueError(f"No data retrieved for {ticker} or {market_ticker}")
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if len(stock_data) < 2 or len(market_data) < 2:
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raise ValueError("Insufficient data points for beta calculation")
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stock_returns = stock_data['Adj Close'].pct_change().dropna()
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market_returns = market_data['Adj Close'].pct_change().dropna()
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combined_data = pd.concat([stock_returns, market_returns], axis=1).dropna()
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combined_data.columns = ['Stock_Returns', 'Market_Returns']
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# Function to get risk-free rate
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def get_risk_free_rate(risk_free_rate_ticker="^TYX"):
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treasury_data = yf.download(risk_free_rate_ticker, period="1d", auto_adjust=False)
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if isinstance(treasury_data.columns, pd.MultiIndex):
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treasury_data.columns = treasury_data.columns.get_level_values(0)
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if treasury_data.empty:
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raise ValueError(f"No data retrieved for {risk_free_rate_ticker}")
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risk_free_rate = treasury_data['Close'].iloc[-1] / 100
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return risk_free_rate
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# Function to calculate market risk premium
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def calculate_market_risk_premium(market_ticker="^GSPC", start_date="2018-01-01", end_date=None, risk_free_rate_ticker="^TYX"):
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market_data = yf.download(market_ticker, start=start_date, end=end_date, auto_adjust=False)
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if isinstance(market_data.columns, pd.MultiIndex):
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market_data.columns = market_data.columns.get_level_values(0)
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if market_data.empty:
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raise ValueError(f"No data retrieved for {market_ticker}")
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if len(market_data) < 2:
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raise ValueError("Insufficient data points for market risk premium calculation")
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market_returns = market_data['Adj Close'].pct_change().dropna()
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average_annual_market_return = market_returns.mean() * 252
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risk_free_rate = get_risk_free_rate(risk_free_rate_ticker)
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def get_levered_dcf_valuation(ticker, api_key):
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url = f"https://financialmodelingprep.com/api/v4/advanced_levered_discounted_cash_flow?symbol={ticker}&apikey={api_key}"
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response = requests.get(url)
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if response.status_code == 200:
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data = response.json()
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if data:
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return data[0]['equityValuePerShare']
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required_return = calculate_required_return(risk_free_rate, beta, market_risk_premium)
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cost_of_equity = calculate_cost_of_equity(beta, market_risk_premium, risk_free_rate)
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current_price_data = yf.download(ticker, period="1d", auto_adjust=False)
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if isinstance(current_price_data.columns, pd.MultiIndex):
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current_price_data.columns = current_price_data.columns.get_level_values(0)
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if current_price_data.empty:
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raise ValueError(f"No current price data retrieved for {ticker}")
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current_price = current_price_data['Adj Close'].iloc[-1]
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outstanding_shares = get_outstanding_shares(ticker)
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market_cap = current_price * outstanding_shares
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# Explanation of the analysis
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st.markdown("""
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This app performs a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis to estimate the intrinsic value of a stock.
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It calculates the present value of expected future cash flows, factoring in growth rates, beta, cost of equity, cost of debt, and market conditions.
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""")
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with st.expander("DCF Analysis Overview", expanded=False):
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st.latex(r"""
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\text{DCF} = \sum_{t=1}^{n} \frac{\text{FCF}_t}{(1 + r)^t} + \frac{\text{TV}}{(1 + r)^n}
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""")
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st.markdown("""
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- **Cost of Equity** is calculated using CAPM, considering the risk-free rate, the stock’s beta, and the market risk premium.
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- **Cost of Debt** is the effective interest rate on debt, adjusted for the tax benefit.
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- **WACC** combines the cost of equity and after-tax cost of debt, weighted by the company’s capital structure. It’s used as the discount rate in the DCF analysis.
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- **Free Cash Flow (FCF)** is the cash available after capital expenditures, used for projecting future cash flows.
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- **Terminal Value (TV)** estimates the company’s value beyond the forecast period using a terminal growth rate, which is a conservative long-term rate.
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- **Growth Rates** are the analysts' forecasts for EPS growth over the next 5 years, which are used to project near-term FCF.
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- **Intrinsic Value per Share** is the total present value of future cash flows divided by shares outstanding.
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- **Margin of Safety** is the difference between the intrinsic value and the market price, providing a buffer for investment decisions.
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For more details on the methodology, [click here](https://entreprenerdly.com/calculate-fair-value-of-stocks-using-dcf-with-public-data/).
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""")
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with st.sidebar:
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with st.expander("How to Use the App", expanded=False):
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st.markdown("""
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risk_free_rate_ticker = st.text_input("Risk-Free Rate Ticker", "^TYX", help="Enter the ticker for the risk-free rate, e.g., '^TYX' for the 30-year Treasury yield.")
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if st.sidebar.button("Run DCF Analysis"):
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try:
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with st.spinner("Performing DCF analysis..."):
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analysis_results = perform_dcf_analysis(
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ticker_symbol,
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start_date=start_date_for_beta.strftime('%Y-%m-%d'),
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market_ticker=market_ticker_for_beta,
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terminal_growth_rate=terminal_growth_rate,
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risk_free_rate_ticker=risk_free_rate_ticker
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)
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if analysis_results:
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# Retrieve DCF and Levered DCF valuations
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automatic_dcf_valuation = get_dcf_valuation(ticker_symbol, FMP_API_KEY)
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levered_dcf_valuation = get_levered_dcf_valuation(ticker_symbol, FMP_API_KEY)
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# Add DCF valuations to the analysis results
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analysis_results['Automatic_DCF_Valuation'] = automatic_dcf_valuation
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analysis_results['Levered_DCF_Valuation'] = levered_dcf_valuation
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# Plot the results
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plot_intrinsic_value_vs_stock_price(analysis_results)
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# Print key metrics
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print_key_metrics(analysis_results)
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# Display financial dataframes
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display_financial_dataframes(analysis_results)
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else:
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st.error("DCF analysis failed. Check ticker or API key.")
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except Exception as e:
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st.error(f"An error occurred while running the analysis: {e}")
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hide_streamlit_style = """
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<style>
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footer {visibility: hidden;}
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</style>
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"""
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st.markdown(hide_streamlit_style, unsafe_allow_html=True)
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