data/calibration-map.json

{
  "_meta": {
    "version": "2.0",
    "created": "2026-04-10",
    "generated_at": "2026-04-10T19:35:17.183416+00:00",
    "source": "scripts/calibration_fit.py (Pool Adjacent Violators + empirical blend)",
    "model_version": "ensemble v1 / real_predictions_loader",
    "notes": "Rebuilt from real matched predictions (prospective, no look-ahead). Previous 31-game hand-tuned map over-corrected bin 6 0.65->0.35. This fit uses 70% PAV curve + 30% empirical bin rate to borrow strength from neighbouring bins in low-count regions.",
    "n_games_used": 104,
    "date_range": "2026-03-16 to 2026-04-05",
    "brier_before": 0.24246,
    "brier_after": 0.23057,
    "ece_before": 0.123,
    "ece_after": 0.06217
  },
  "bin_edges": [
    0.0,
    0.2,
    0.4,
    0.6,
    0.8,
    1.0
  ],
  "bin_counts": [
    4,
    20,
    26,
    44,
    10
  ],
  "raw_centers": [
    0.1,
    0.3,
    0.5,
    0.7,
    0.9
  ],
  "calibrated_centers": [
    0.075,
    0.4417,
    0.5365,
    0.5556,
    0.97
  ]
}