thegoodfellas/blogset-br huggingface dataset:
The death of Kim Il Sung in 1994 was quickly followed by the completion of an agreed framework, negotiated with the Clinton administration, that had seemed to sideline North Koreas nuclear programme. Last week, immediately prior to Kim Jong Ils death, there were whispers of a possible thaw in relations. North Korea is in desperate need of food aid, and the United States had reportedly offered to ship nearly a quarter of a million tonnes of "nutritional aid" on a month-to-month basison the condition that it would be allowed to verify that none of it ended up "on some leader's banquet table". There were even murmurs to the effect that Pyongyang might suspend its uranium-enrichment programme. There is something on which to build. Facing an election year of his own however, Barack Obama may find it difficult to pursue a new, softer line on North Korea, even with a new Kim.Another approach could come from South Korea, but perhaps not until after its parliamentary and presidential elections in 2012. The sitting president, Lee Myung-bak, has defined his term in office with a hawkish stance towards the North. The Souths public reaction to Kims death was relatively muted: The KOSPI index of leading Korean stocks fell at first but then stabilised. Ordinary South Koreans have been debating whether or not condolences should be sent (as Pyongyang did when Kim Dae-jung, a former president of South Korea, died in 2009). Some have taken to criticising the countrys intelligence capabilities. The timing of Mr Lees visit to Japan on Saturday, December 17th, makes it seem plain that none of South Koreas spooks were aware of Kim Jong Ils fate until the official announcement was broadcast. That happened to fall on the presidents birthday; his party was cancelled at the last minute.A spokesman for Mr Lee, Cho Hyun-jin, says that he is cautiously optimistic about North-South relations, and notes that he is in close contact with leaders in Japan, America, and Russia. Mr Lees term in office has been marked by severe tensions with North Korea. In November 2010, the North shelled a South Korean island, killing two civilians. Earlier in the same year it was accused of sinking a South Korean naval vessel with a torpedo, killing 46 sailors. Those may prove to have been the last two attacks to have been carried out at the order of Kim Jong Il. But some observers have attributed them to the Great Successor as rites of initiation.Kim Jong Ils funeral, which may provide the first opportunity for assessing the regimes new pecking order, is to take place on December 28th. (Intriguingly, Mr Chang, the Great Successors chief regent, is ranked a lowly 19th on the official list of attendants.) The late Kims record, according to Mr Cumings, will be one of failure at almost every level, except the critical one of maintaining maximum power for his family and the regime. We will soon see whether or not Kim Jong Unthe youngest leader in the world to command a nuclear arsenalhas such staying power, or such unfortunate consequences
for his people. The months ahead will be most telling. Mr Zhang, of the Central Party School in Beijing, makes a wry nod to his own countrys experience. Uttering the ritual platitudes of succession and actually carrying it out are two very different things. Socialist countries are like this, he says. There's a certain distance between legal procedure and actual practice.(Picture credit: AFP PHOTO / KCNA VIA KNS)Source: The Economist.
Quizzes with Solutions?NoVideo Lectures?NoPodcast of Course?NoAudio for Course?NoDownloadable Materials?YesDiplomaGuide.com Course Grade (1 worst - 10 best)Quality of ContentUsability for Home UserOverall Grade676.512. Democratization in Asia, Africa and Latin America - MITUndergraduate level study of the democratization of countries in developing areas.Course FeatureResult for Home UserDegree LevelUndergraduateLectures, Notes or Reading Lists?YesLabs and Assignments?YesTests or Quizzes with Solutions?NoVideo Lectures?NoPodcast of Course?NoAudio for Course?NoDownloadable Materials?YesDiplomaGuide.com Course Grade (1 worst - 10 best)Quality of ContentUsability for Home UserOverall Grade676.5Thanks to George Sturaro.Source: DiplomaGuide.
Poucos paises tiveram ganhos tao expressivos em 2011 como o Qatar.O pais foi escolhido como sede da Copa do Mundo de 2022 -- nao sem polemicas em torno da compra de votos no seio da FIFA --, e sua economia cresceu expressivamente em meio a crise financeira internacional.Mais importante, o pequeno emirado estendeu sua influencia politica pelo Oriente Medio, por meio de dinheiro, de intervencoes militares, de soft power -- leia-se Al Jazeera -- e de conexoes com politicos (governistas e dissidentes) de toda a regiao. Isso so foi possivel pela janela de oportunidade aberta pela Primavera Arabe e pela transicao vivenciada nos tres grandes Estados lideres do Mundo Arabe (Egito, Arabia Saudita e Iraque).Nao por coincidencia, sairam duas interessantissimas materias sobre o assunto nessa semana, publicadas pela BBC e pelo La Vanguardia.Qatar flexing muscle in changing worldBy Michael BuchananBBC News, DohaQatar's military joined the Nato-led intervention in Libya, training the rebelsOn a recent Sunday afternoon, the normally sober, orderly centre of Doha was transformed into a triumphant melee of noise and colour as thousands of people took to the streets to celebrate Qatar's National Day.This year has been something of a coming of age for this small Gulf nation.It strongly backed the rebels in Libya and has led regional criticism of the crackdowns on protesters by Syria's President Bashar al-Assad and Yemen's President Ali Abdullah Saleh."We have to contribute with whatever we have - politics, money or by supporting military action, whatever it takes to support other nations," said one Qatari reveller.At the state-of-the-art studios of Libya TV in Doha, they know all about support from Qatar.The station was set up in the early days of the Libyan conflict to counter the propaganda being broadcast on Libyan state TV by Col Muammar Gaddafi's supporters; it is still being completely funded by the Qatari government.Qatar also joined the Nato-led military action in Libya, helped train the rebels, flew the injured to Doha for medical treatment and provided humanitarian aid.It is estimated to have spent hundreds of millions of dollars so far on Libya.Huda al-Srari, the general manager at Libya TV, denies the Qataris have any say in the channel's editorial output, and takes their support at face value."I have no proof that they are looking for something from Libya," she says. "They are looking for money? They are very rich. Maybe they are not looking for anything, just to help their sisters and brothers in Libya."Region in transitionUnburdened by any threats or major concerns at home, Emir Sheikh Hamad Bin Khalifa Al Thani has been willing to step into the role usually occupied by other Arab leaders, and to use his time and money to reshape the region.Qatar is one of the world's richest nations and its economy, heavily dependent on oil and gas, is expected to grow by about 18% in 2011."Some of the key big powers in this region - Egypt, Saudi Arabia - are in transition, so Qatar has found itself with the ability, the leadership and the money to play a role," says Salman Shaikh, an analyst at
the Brookings Institute in Doha."I've often heard the lament in Qatar that the Arab world has fallen behind in terms of human development, in terms of technological advancement. So the hope is that we'll be moving towards a more stable and more development orientated region than it currently is."In one of Doha's most distinctive districts, Souk Waqif, about 20 women were selling delicious homemade food one recent evening - stews, curries, spicy crepes and Arabian coffee.All the women wore abayas - a traditional, long black Islamic garment - and most wore shaylas - a long scarf that is wrapped around the head - as well, a reminder that despite Doha's image as a glitzy centre of Western-style skyscrapers, Qatar is still a conservative Muslim society.Like neighbouring Saudi Arabia, the royal family of Qatar and most indigenous Qataris follow the ultra-conservative Wahhabi school of Islam, but society in Qatar is more accepting of the role of women, says newspaper columnist Reem al-Hamri."I can drive; I can hold any position I want. Everyone is equal, women can be leaders," she says."For me wearing this - the abaya and the shayla - if it's going to cover my body and my hair, it's not going to cover my mind, my ideas."Long-standing relationshipsStill, there are concerns in Libya, Tunisia and Egypt that Qatar is using the unrest to support and finance Islamist parties.Following elections in Tunisia, won by the moderate Islamist party, Ennahda, a demonstration was held outside the Qatari embassy in Tunis bemoaning Doha's influence.Some members of Libya's National Transitional Council have criticised Qatar's influence in the country, while in Egypt, Qatar has been accused of helping fund the Muslim Brotherhood.Mr Shaikh, however, warns against reading too much into the connections, saying Qatar is not embarking on some ideological push."Qatar for the last 20, 30 years has been providing a home for a lot of the individuals who had to run away from places like Libya and Tunisia. These invariably have come from Islamist backgrounds. As these people get elected, Qatar has long-standing relationships with them."Qatar ended its recent National Day celebrations with a spectacular fireworks display, a further sign of the confidence and optimism that permeates the entire nation.With its neighbours in turmoil and the West distracted by economic woes, this tiny emirate has the money, the connections and willingness to play a much greater role on the world stage in the coming years.El ano de QatarGas y television para dominar los hilos de Oriente MedioInternacional | 28/12/2011 - 00:36hHENRIQUE CYMERMAN | DOHAEnviado especialQatar, un pequeno emirato tres veces mas pequeno que Catalunya, termina el ano de su eclosion: obtuvo la organizacion del Mundial de futbol 2022, su cadena de television Al Yazira ha marcado el paso de las revoluciones arabes y ha puesto las bases del triunfo islamista en Tunez y Egipto.Tiene la renta per capita mas alta del mundo (67.300 euros), y la economia que crece mas rapidamente (un 19,4% en el 2010). Gracias a las enormes cantidades de gas natural, la monarquia absoluta de los Al Thani, con una Constitucion que
aspira a asentar un sistema semidemocratico, es definida como "un pigmeo con un punetazo de gigante".Qatar ha ganado un sorprendente protagonismo en Oriente Medio y en el panorama internacional patrocinando, entre otros grandes y mediaticos equipos de futbol, al Barca. El emir jeque Hamed bin Jalifa al Thani provoco un efecto en cadena en todo el mundo arabe, entre el golfo Persico y el Atlantico, con la fuerza de las imagenes libres de censura (excepto en Bahrein) emitidas en la principal television arabe via satelite, Al Yazira.La semana pasada la esposa del emir, la jequesa Mozah, fue la anfitriona del cuarto Foro Global de la Alianza de Civilizaciones de la ONU: 2.500 representantes de 104 gobiernos y de organizaciones pertenecientes a la sociedad civil. Entre ellos, por primera vez, un grupo de intelectuales y periodistas israelies y palestinos se dio cita en Doha. Para ello, el alto representante de la ONU Jorge Sampaio exigio a Qatar que emitiese visados especiales para que los israelies pudiesen participar en los debates. Sampaio manifesto que lo que mas orgullo le produce es "haber logrado convertir el tema de la diversidad cultural en una de las principales prioridades de la agenda politica internacional".Muchos de los visitantes en Qatar comparten el sentimiento expresado por el ex presidente de Egipto Hosni Mubarak cuando visito los estudios centrales de Al Yazira en Doha. "Tanto ruido para tan poca cosa?", se pregunto el antiguo dictador, que, igual que Gadafi en Libia y Ben Ali en Tunez, fue derribado por la pasion popular reflejada en las televisiones de toda la region."Hasta los anos sesenta eramos pobres", afirma el comerciante qatari Mohamed Saban. "Aunque con la independencia, que fue declarada en 1971, Dios estuvo con nosotros y nos obsequio con cantidades infinitas de gas y petroleo que nos permitiran invertir en el futuro, al menos, durante los proximos 40 anos".Con ocasion del dia nacional de Qatar, que tuvo lugar el domingo 18 de diciembre, decenas de padres vestidos con impecables chilabas blancas acompanaban a sus hijos adolescentes a comprar dagas de larga empunadura, "mas adecuadas para su edad". Mientras recordaban las tradiciones de las tribus del desierto, fuera del mercado Suk Wakef los esperaban vehiculos Porsche y Ferrari, asi como choferes de India, Nepal y Sri Lanka.De los 1,7 millones de habitantes de Qatar, solo una cuarta parte son qataries de origen. El resto son inmigrantes casi todos hombres con permisos de estancia temporales, salarios bajos, malas condiciones laborales y pocos derechos civiles.Qatar combina Monaco con Las Vegas, pero sin casinos ni alcohol. El velo negro es comun entre las mujeres.La crisis economica mundial y las oportunidades que brinda Qatar sobre todo de cara a la organizacion del Mundial de futbol del 2022 esta atrayendo a muchos jovenes empresarios europeos. Uno de ellos, el portugues Nuno Reis, con una empresa de jardineria, explica que "los negocios se hacen entre hombres", lo que deja a la mujer en una posicion secundaria. "Los debates anade, el trabajo y los equipos profesionales son solo de hombres. Las mujeres son realmente un mundo aparte".Normalmente, cuando hay
mujeres en puestos profesionales, estas son extranjeras. En general, los inmigrantes, que suponen un 90% de la mano de obra, no disfrutan de los servicios sociales y de la proteccion de las leyes laborales que benefician a los qataries."El emir de Qatar tiene buenas relaciones con todo el mundo", explica Abdul-Aziz Teyab, que dirige la constructora HR, una de las mas grandes del pais.Estas buenas relaciones han permitido a Qatar tener muchos aliados en Estados Unidos, pero tambien acoger a jovenes revolucionarios arabes, asi como a los familiares de Osama bin Laden, fundador de Al Qaeda. Por Qatar pasan los Hermanos Musulmanes, hombres de negocios y militares israelies, periodistas britanicos (ex BBC y Sky) que trabajan para Al Yazira y hasta el presidente de Sudan, Omar al Bashir, acusado por el Tribunal Penal Internacional de La Haya de criminal de guerra y genocida.El emir Al Thani, gracias a Al Yazira y la fuerza de sus finanzas basadas en los hidrocarburos, promueve las primaveras arabes al tiempo que procura no verse barrido por ellas. Su intencion es seguir haciendo todo lo posible para que las conservadoras monarquias arabes se mantengan intactas y no se vean afectadas por los vientos del cambio. Es esencial, por tanto, mantener contentos a sus subditos con todo tipo de privilegios. El litro de gasolina, por ejemplo, se vende a 18 centimos de euro el litro.Y es que si la revolucion afectara a su emirato, Al Thani no la veria primaveral, sino como una peligrosa tempestad de arena.Fontes: BBC e La Vanguardia.
The Man Who Got Russia RightWashington has a long tradition of misreading Moscow. As Putin teeters, its worth recalling George Kennan, the best Kremlinologist America ever had.BY SUSAN B. GLASSER | DECEMBER 23, 2011When mass protests broke out in Russia a few weeks ago, the breathtaking speed with which the country's generally complacent middle class turned on Vladimir Putin seemed most remarkable of all. For a dozen years, the KGB-trained tough guy in the Kremlin had been boosted by a stage-managed image of macho realism and the backstage machinations of a corrupt and heavyhanded state, fueling his wildly misleading popularity. When his approval ratings cratered after claims of vote-rigging in the Dec. 4 parliamentary elections, it was as if a giant souffle had fallen: Overnight, seemingly, Putin's poll numbers went from nearly 70 percent approval to a bare 51 percent.It was so serious that even Dmitry Medvedev, the puppet president whose office Putin has said he plans to retake in 2012, was warning this week that the political system has "exhausted itself" and that without real change, Russia's rulers could find their rule "delegitimized." And that, Medvedev said, "would only mean one thing for our country: the collapse of the state."The timing of Russia's latest political spasms couldn't be more fitting. It was exactly 20 years ago this week that the Soviet Union itself collapsed, a 70-year-old empire that evaporated in the weeks between Dec. 8, 1991 -- when Russia, Ukraine and Belarus declared their independence -- and Christmas Day, when Mikhail Gorbachev resigned from the Soviet presidency, declared the office extinct and signed the government's death warrant. The events were so traumatic for many Russians of the old regime that, years later, Putin was moved to call the Soviet breakup "the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century."If you're bewildered by the new twists in Russia's famously contorted history, give thanks for George F. Kennan, who has been resurrected in a timely and authoritative biography by Yale historian John Lewis Gaddis. George F. Kennan: An American Life is out just in time to guide us through a Russia once again in the throes of political transformation.Kennan almost singlehandedly invented the serious study of Russia by America's diplomats, and through his three stints in the U.S. Embassy in Moscow, he sent reporting home that was prescient and insightful even for today's audience. Consider this observation he made to his boss, the U.S. ambassador to Latvia, in 1932. At the time, the United States hadn't even recognized the Soviet Union, Kennan was several years short of 30 and he hadn't yet traveled inside Russia. But he was already immersed in its history, language and literature, and he foresaw the Soviet Union's internal decay -- at a time when others perceived a new superpower emerging to become one of the new strong men of Europe."From the most morally unified country in the world," Kennan wrote, "Russia can become over-night the worst moral chaos."Based in Moscow a few years later, Kennan saw the historical contradictions that undermined the foundation of the Soviet regime -- while at
the same time giving it a veneer of power. Russians were "used to extreme cold and extreme heat, prolonged sloth and sudden feats of energy, exaggerated cruelty and exaggerated kindness, ostentatious wealth and dismal squalor, violent xenophobia and uncontrollable yearning for contact with the foreign world, vast power and the most abject slavery, simultaneous love and hate for the same objects." Looking for an insight into the forces competing for political supremacy in Russia today, you could do far worse than Kennan's observations.The quote comes from the draft of a 12,000-word essay Gaddis unearthed and which Kennan wrote for Ambassador Averell Harriman in the summer of 1944. Much of Kennan's genius about Russia is contained in it, from the notion that the Soviet Union, despite its enormous losses in World War II of some 20 million of its people, would rise as "a single force greater than any other that will be left on the European continent when this war is over" to the cultural factors that would eventually prove the communist state's undoing. "The strength of the Kremlin lies largely in the fact that it knows how to wait," Kennan wrote. "But the strength of the Russian people lies in the fact that they know how to wait longer."Gaddis captures why Kennan's dispatches deserved to be immortalized. "Contrary to what almost everyone else assumed at the time Kennan portrayed the Soviet Union as a transitory phenomenon: It was floating along on the surface of Russian history, and currents deeper than anything Marx, Lenin, or Stalin had imagined would ultimately determine its fate." Or here is Gaddis on Kennan again: "He saw what others saw but in different colors.... He had a historian's consciousness of the past, which gave him a visionary's perspective on the future."In short, Kennan was a great reporter.But Kennan's place in American history, and in Gaddis's biography, is assured not for what he saw in Russia but for what he told the United States to do about it. He was, as a million Google hits will tell you, "the architect of containment," the postwar strategy for countering the Soviet Union that was at the heart of the Cold War.The notion of "containment" as a new form of Western grand strategy -- a third way to block the Soviets that involved neither capitulation nor another devastating world war -- built on Kennan's views about the internal weaknesses of Soviet power. It was a brilliant insight, and Gaddis spends much of his biography on Kennan's decades-long struggle (he died in 2005 at age 101) against the many ways in which his idea was used to justify a long, highly militarized contest with the Soviet Union, a contest whose particulars he often violently disagreed with.Kennan's containment was rooted in his fight to get Washington to pay attention to Stalin's shift at the end of World War II, from allying with the United States and Britain to competing with them for mastery over postwar Europe. But the term itself has lost that meaning; it has long since become shorthand for all that