thegoodfellas/blogset-br huggingface dataset:
elements in the states might just get organized and makes sure everybody has their IDs, and that issue will be used as an issue in the election to work against the Republicans. But thats definitely been politicized. It does come into play gerrymandering I mean redistricting could come into play in terms of how states create their own state legislative districts and how that plays out at the state level. Im less familiar with that. But thats I think thats a very important separate issue from the general issue of redistricting. QUESTION: Syed Zareen, an Afghan journalist from Afghanistan. I have heard from many Americans who say that in general election day, the participation of voter is not very high. I mean, it may be different from time to time. Could you please throw some light about from like historically the least number and many numbers who participated? Thank you.MR SHAPIRO: Well, by international standards, voter turnout in national elections in the United States is low. Were talking, at best, participation in presidential elections being on the order of 60 percent or a little bit more among the voting eligible population. Among registered voters its high, its much higher than that, but in terms of everyone who could vote its lower. Historically in the United States, during the early days of the American republic into the 19th century, the voter turnout was higher but the electorate was much was much more limited; that is, early on the only people eligible to vote were men, and in the early days you had to be property owners and so forth. So among a narrower electorate the voter turnout was very high.Voter turnout increased in the 20th century, peaking at around 1960, 1964. It peaked at around 65 percent or so and then dropped after that dropping to close to 50 percent or even a hair below 50 percent in presidential elections. And then in more recent years, its actually gone up so that the trajectory is up.The big question is, is that what are the implications of that for democracy, and we can talk about this very philosophically. What does it mean to have a country where you have that you have such a low level of participation? On the other hand, one could argue maybe its a good thing that people who dont vote dont choose to vote and we dont we need not worry about them.In terms of what to do to increase voter turnout, the I would say that the increase in voter turnout in recent years has been due to the fact that that that rules with regard to voter registration have become more liberalized. To vote in the United States in most places, you have to be registered to vote, you have to register a certain number of months before the general election. The election is held on a Tuesday. Thats a day that people work, its not a day off, its not a weekend. Whats led to increases in voter turnout is they some states have allowed early
voting; people can vote a few days before the election, or its more convenient for them to vote. What I think has also contributed to increasing voter turnout is the fact that the elections have become much more exciting and competitive and theres a lot more voter mobilization going on by the parties. Thats increased that kind of thing as well. So its kind of a complicated picture. Its sort of a might be viewed as a dismal picture compared to other countries that have higher turnout rates, and the fact that America talks about the vibrancy of its democracy but its a democracy that not 100 percent of the citizenry participates in on election day.QUESTION: Thank you. Im Morten Bertelsen with Norways Business Daily. The House appears to be in chaos today after Kevin McCarthy dropped out of the race for speaker. What are the implications for the election, the presidential election? How can that could it have an impact at all? And my second question is this idea of a ground game. How important is that going forward, especially for candidates like Donald Trump and Carly Fiorina and so forth?MR SHAPIRO: Yeah. Well, in terms of the implication of who the speaker is, I think basically, partisan conflict is sufficiently great at the moment that it probably didnt matter who the speaker was. Although it was the case I think McCarthy became sufficiently controversial at this point that he became a liability for the Republicans. And so there well have to see how it shakes out and who that turns out to be. But I think the consequences of that for the general election probably, at least at this moment, are not sufficiently great.But what was your second question? Im sorry.QUESTION: The ground game --MR SHAPIRO: Oh, yeah.QUESTION: -- or the lack thereof for candidates like Trump and Carson and Fiorina.MR SHAPIRO: Yeah. Thats a very good point. At this point, they really havent had to worry very much about this idea of a ground game. The ground game has to do with what the campaigns do literally on the ground with their campaign workers during the election to get out the vote, to try to persuade people to vote for them, and so forth.The thing about these primary elections and this primary election period and caucus period its such a long period that the candidates can basically make do with a lot in terms of just based on media coverage, and theyre basically getting some attention when they visit the states themselves. The ground game becomes very important at the time as the election nears where youre really concerned about getting the vote counting. Theres a question about how sophisticated the campaigns will get in this era of big data in the national in the presidential elections. I mean, the parties really have enormous databases, they have statisticians working for them, they try to target voters and so forth. All that becomes just crucial as the election nears.I think in the case of Trump, I think hell eventually have
to get around to this. I dont think I think theres no way around that. But for now, its basically the press and the debates and so forth.QUESTION: My name is Adesina Anidugbe. I report for Ogun State Television in Nigeria. I want to ask you if there is the possibility of the foreign policy direction of any of these candidates vis-a-vis promotion and encouragement of best governance and political practices in third-world countries, particularly the African continent, of any advantage in the election?MR SHAPIRO: Thats a very good question. I dont think any at the moment, I dont think anything can be said specifically about that. In terms of how to think about that in the context of the campaign, it really comes down to the to what extent the candidates and the winner of the election has a vision for U.S. foreign policy that includes some variation on promoting certain kinds of democratic nation building abroad. And at this moment, the candidates havent really focused on that thing, but what theyve really focused on are those areas of weakness of the Obama Administration, and that particular issue isnt one thats come up. Itll be interesting to see if anything like that comes up in the context of the debates. But from the standpoint of national politics, thats at the moment thats not one of the central issues, but it could be. QUESTION: Yes, hello. My name is Melanie. Im a French TV reporter and my questions concern the coverage for us, like foreign media. So far its been like kind of difficult to get access to the candidate, like interviews and also credentials for the meetings sometimes. So I understand that we are not the first priority for these candidates, but how far can we expect like get interviews or and how important is international media for the candidate, whats happening on that?MR SHAPIRO: Yeah. Well, Im certainly not knowledgeable or expert on that, but what I can imagine just thinking about that from the standpoint of campaign operations and making rational decisions, how to basically budget the time of the candidates. Their audience at this moment in time is an American audience. And in terms of the extent to which theyre concerned about appealing to the citizens in other nations, I think, I mean, that could come up in the context of discussions and debates about foreign policy and if theyre looking for basically approval and recognition abroad. But at this stage, the issues at stake here are predominantly domestic. Theyre a lot of them are going to become theyre going to go from strategic to tactical in individual states, and I think foreign journalists may have a rough time there. QUESTION: Thank you, Professor. Hasan Ferdous from Bangla Daily Prothom Alo. Two quick questions, one on Koch brothers. What role do you see them playing in the Republican nominating process, given that they havent really weighed in yet on any particular candidate? Thats one. Another one is on demography. You did mention about the role of demography in
the world general election. Im interested to know about the South Asians. What how do you explain the outside role of the Indians in the American politics, and what role do you see them playing in the general elections?MR SHAPIRO: Yeah, what makes that question a little bit difficult, it has to do with knowing about not only the size of these populations from Southern Asia. But the other but the key thing is knowing where they live. And so and oftentimes they may, for example, have an increasing presence in the politics of certain states. Like my home state of New Jersey, for example, I know this to be the case. The difficulty there is that it may be in a state where the state may be taken for granted as a Republican or a Democratic states, and the role of swing voters may be less important there.I think what was striking in the last election is that the Asian American vote broke this very highly and now its Asian American. Unfortunately, we dont have the data to distinguish Eastern Asian from Southern Asians. This is really terrible, but it has to do with the how much time and effort the pollsters want to make in terms of distinguishing between these different individuals in the surveys. And they dont do that in the exit polls, which is the best source of data.But the places to there are identifiable states where there are large proportions of people from South Asia and East Asia, but what makes it difficult is they tend to live in states that are like they might live in California and New York, and were talking about states that are Democratic probably. Where they can have a big effect though and this is the place to watch and where I would look closely is their role in congressional elections. And also where you see it and you see it here in New York very visibly in terms of elections is to state office and also to city office. And there they and the way the groups establish themselves is kind of working from the bottom up.QUESTION: Koch brothers?MR SHAPIRO: Oh, Koch brothers. Well, this is an interesting question. Okay, they all right, the Koch brothers have a lot of money. I suspect is that what they may be doing is at this stage maybe holding off a little bit to figure out how to best spend their money. My prediction is that theyre going to try to weigh in very heavily on the Republican side and theyll pick their candidate based on the positions of the candidates and how likely they are to win. They may have a lot of money, but they dont want to I would say they dont want to throw the money away. But they can be a huge factor. They can provide unlimited well, essentially unlimited money for campaigning on behalf of a candidate, but its got to be a candidate whos strong enough who has his own campaign organization to make his or
her prospects of winning credible. And its nice to be able to have to say his or her because we have women in this race on both sides. QUESTION: Hi, Hajime Matsuura of Japans Sankei. Two questions on Trump. Do you mind profiling a typical supporter of the Trumps camp and those people those candidates they were supporting in the previous campaign? And the second question would be if Trump should maintain this momentum, could you predict his running mate? And by any chance if he should become the president, what kind of political figure he would nominate as like a chief of State Department or your boss or Secretary of Treasury Department?MR SHAPIRO: Okay, I may take your questions from the end to the beginning. In terms of who hed appoint, I have no idea. I dont have a good idea of who the who hes actually talking to at this point, who are the people he respects, and so forth. He may be talking to a wide range of people, because all the candidates are talking to the same people.Jumping to the first question in terms of his base of support, obviously, predominantly white, I think a bit disproportionately male. The support his support the thing thats striking about his support is his support has come from just a wide range of demographic groups who could go either way in terms of support for particular candidates. The big question is how much of his support is coming from Tea Party supporters. Id say more than other candidates, but only a bit more than other candidates. And hes getting a lot of support from well-educated people and rich people and less well-off people. So Id say demographically its a pretty diverse group.And what was what were the questions in between? I think there --QUESTION: Running mate?MR SHAPIRO: Oh, running mate. Thats a very good question. I dont well, the answer obviously I dont know. But pardon?QUESTION: Ivanka. MR SHAPIRO: Ivanka. Well, given well, given his past behavior, I mean, the first person who came to mind for me was Hillary Clinton, but given the fact hes crossed over. But it wouldnt be the case because theyre both from New York, and that would mean theyd have to give up the New York electoral votes in the general.QUESTION: (Off-mike.)MR SHAPIRO: Pardon?QUESTION: (Off-mike.)MR SHAPIRO: I dont think so. I think hed probably have to hed probably I would say pick would probably pick a mainstream person, probably not one of the current candidates. If I were he, I would be looking possibly for somebody to add some diversity to the ticket and maybe somebody whos had experience as a governor. I mean, the kind of person whos been talked about as vice president more generally are the basically the young, up-and-coming Republicans such as Nikki Haley. I mean, Marco Rubio would be an obvious choice in a lot of respects as well, but whether he would go there is not clear. I would suspect hed probably go for someone who might not who
would probably be someone he wouldnt he would not want to take the limelight away from him. MODERATOR: So Professor Shapiro, thank you so much. The professor will be available if you want to continue this conjecture about whos running with whom, but were going to end the formal briefing here. Thank you all so much for coming. Thank you, Professor Shapiro. (Applause.)MR SHAPIRO: Thank you.# # #NEW YORK FOREIGN PRESS CENTER BRIEFING WITH ROBERT Y. SHAPIRO, PROFESSOR AND FORMER CHAIR OF THE DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AT COLUMBIA UNIVERSITYTHURSDAY, OCTOBER 8, 2015, 2:00 P.M. EDTNEW YORK FOREIGN PRESS CENTER, 799 UNITED NATIONS PLAZA, 10TH FLOOR
Este bolo fiz para uma cliente anos 70.Coberto com Chopasta recheio de leite condensado e nozes. BATERISTA COM A SUA BATERIAUma cliente muito especial, me ligou encomendando um bolo. So que ela queria uma bolo diferente, seria para o seu filho , ja um homem , baterista e apaixonado por musica. Entao comecei a desenvolver a ideia daquilo que foi encomendado.Saiu deste jeito. Eu particulamente amei. Logico que perguntei a minha cliente ela me disse que amou e todos que estavam no aniversario tb. Gracas a Deus. Este bolo eu fiz para o meu sobrinho, um rapaz apaixonado por carro.Bolo de massa branca com recheio de leite condensado e coco e o outro recheio de leite condensado com nozes. Coberto de Chopasta. Este Bolo eu fiz em homenagem as minhas amigas, foi dia de confraternizacao. Ficou muito legal. Personagem Moranguinho , toda em Pastilhagem de Acucar.Bolo MoranguinhoBolo de GuloseimasEste bolo foi encomendado para uma crianca que fez 5 anos.A cliente iria festejar na escolinha dele. Olha a cliente me falou que as professoras e os coleguinhas adoraram este bolo. Ja que crianca ama guloseimas Este Bolo eu fiz em homenagem as minhas amigas, foi dia de confraternizacao. Ficou muito legal. Bolo Anos 70Bolo Gatinha MarieBolo para 15 anosBolo bolsa Bolo Bolsa fiz para uma grande amigaBolo Livro de HistoriaBolo fiz para uma jovem,ela queria um bolo diferente.Bolo de guloseimas este eu fiz para uma crianca. Para festejar na Escolinha, junto com seus amiguinhos.Bolo Moranguinho Eu seria alguem melhor se nao tivesse tanto medo de doencas. Ou melhor, de uma especifica. Serio. Fico o dia todo com medo de que aconteca, e isso ja dura muito tempo. Preciso esquecer isso e tocar minha vida. Esse medo me impede de fazer muita coisa, sem contar que ocupa um espaco significativo na minha cabeca. Eu tinha conseguido superar isso, ou achava que tinha, mas nao. Mas sabem, acho que as vezes precisamos tomar aquela decisao definitiva. E sinto que e hoje o meu dia. Eu vou superar essa droga que me atrapalha! Eu nao vou mais ter medo. Eu vou viver essa semana maravilhosamente bem e tranquila e so vou me estressar se realmente sintomas se tornarem insuportaveis, porque os que tenho, todos os medicos ja me comprovaram que nao e nada, apenas sou sensivel.Entao e isso. Boa noite pra voces e bom fim de tarde nessa geladeira chamada Carlos Barbosa. (Quando eu chegar na faculdade, geladeira sera um elogio).:* Esse livro e otimo! Sabem, ja sentiram aquela sensacao 'aconchegante' quando se le um livro? E ate uma empolgacao quando chega perto da hora em que posso ler. Eu demorei pra descobrir que esse e o tipo de leitura que me da prazer. E reconfortante. Me vejo na historia desse casal. Alimenta minhas ideias e ate uns sopros daquela juventudezinha que eu acho que ja perdi. De qualquer forma, mesmo sendo fascinada por contos de terror e Andre Vianco com seus vampiros, romances sao os que me fazem flutuar enquanto leio. Nao tenho palavras, e so, como estar de ferias numa praia deserta, e como
O que acho fantastico, e o modo como eles colocam os pensamentos dos personagens em dialogos, sobre a analise que eles fazem do que estao dizendo. Eu sempre faco isso. Como quando tu diz uma frase e pensa 'porque eu disse isso?' ou 'porque fui tao dramatica?'. Ainda, pensam em como irao agir nos proximos minutos: 'banque o culpado agora'. E ja estou chegando na parte da critica dele que diz Insuportavelmente Triste. E triste demais. Retrata minha vida esse livro e tudo o que ira acontecer nela nos proximos anos. E sabem o que mais? Nao da pra mudar o que vai acontecer. As coisas sao o que sao. Confuso isso? Leiam, vale a pena. E se foi mais um dia! Agora estou aqui embaixo das cobertas so esperando o Douglas chegar. Estou meio ansiosa agora, nao sei porque..acho que estou com bastante expectativas boas pra esse fim de semana. Entao era isso, passei so pra dar boa noite e passar mais um tempinho.Bom fim de semana pra voces!Beijos. Porque e tao dificil fazer com que o blog pareca mais aconchegante. Gosto de vir aqui, e odeio os designs, ate porque as opcoes sao limitadas, ja que nao sei mexer em nenhum programa que faca ao menos, um banner. Gostei dele assim, mas sei que ja eu vou enjoar, porque no meio desse espaco branco eu queria um titulo legal e personalizado, mas fazer o que ne.Bom, daqui a 15 minutos estarei no onibus pra ultima aula da semana, aleluia. E tambem vou comer meu sanduiche natural, o qual pensei a tarde inteira.Eu quero ferias! E quero o fim de semana mais tranquilo do mundo, so eu e o Douglas.:** Eu ja sabia! Todas sao. Mas tem gente que me surpreende. Sabem eu detesto o jeito 'humilde' de certas pessoas viverem suas vidas. Eu jamais terei esse tipo de humildade. Sabem porque? Porque eu sou competitiva, e eu sei que dessa forma eu vou chegar onde eu quero. A minha humildade se limita a nao ultrapassar tudo e todos pra chegar onde quero, a nao maltratar ninguem que nao mereca, afins. Agora, nao consigo acordar e imaginar meu dia como algo sagrado. Nao, isso nao. E odeio quando uma pessoa tem uma determinada filosofia de vida e tenta persuadir todo mundo pra que eles se convencam de que aquilo e o certo, de que aquilo e o que todos deveriam seguir. NAO NAO NAO. Eu nao espalho aos 4 ventos as palavras da Biblia, so porque eu sou catolica. Entao PAREM de falar sobre qualquer coisa que envolva a parte espiritual das pessoas, parem de tentar mudar o mundo achando que existe uma filosofia iluminada que fara isso. Gente, as pessoas estao ficando cada dia mais malucas. E serio. Agora, voltando a falsidade, preciso exercita-la periodicamente, fingindo que acho lindo quando alguem fala sobre essas coisas, porque sao pessoas proximas a mim. E vamos para mais um dia.:* Gente, fui me inventar de pintar meu cabelo em casa com tonalizante. Usei o Soft Color, da Wella e digo: Nunca mais.Meu cabelo
ficou tipo assim, um bombril. Se minha mae me pagasse poderia pegar um pedaco dele e limpar o fogao, que ia ficar brilhando. Uo.Entao se fosse a tinta, eu ia ficar tipo, rastafari hahaha. Imagina.Enfim, agora vou ter que hidratar o triplo. Eis que ligo no mercado e tinha a mascara que eu tanto queria, com oleo de argan. Vamos ver. Amanha vou fazer uma mega hidratacao nele. Chega a me pinicar o pescoco, e serio. Como isso ja tinha acontecido uma vez porque usei um shampoo horrivel, eu ja sei como cuidar. Mas vai demorar umas 2 semanas pra ele ficar realmente bom. Que odio, ao menos ele ficou preto como eu queria, pra apresentacao de domingo.Sem contar que alem de pintar o cabelo, consegui a proeza de pintar meu pescoco, cotovelos, barriga e sola do pe, porque deixei tinta cair no chao e pisei em cina, hahaha. Toalhas da minha mae. Acredito que ela ainda nao viu, porque nao ouvi nada ainda. Gente.E isso, bom fim de semana pra voces. Nao comprem essa merda de tonalizante.:*