thegoodfellas/blogset-br huggingface dataset:
-- whatever is required.When you get right down to it, you can ignore almost everything else.I'm not suggesting that you do ignore everything else -- just that judging from what I've seen in successful startups, you can.Whenever you see a successful startup, you see one that has reached product/market fit -- and usually along the way screwed up all kinds of other things, from channel model to pipeline development strategy to marketing plan to press relations to compensation policies to the CEO sleeping with the venture capitalist. And the startup is still successful.Conversely, you see a surprising number of really well-run startups that have all aspects of operations completely buttoned down, HR policies in place, great sales model, thoroughly thought-through marketing plan, great interview processes, outstanding catered food, 30" monitors for all the programmers, top tier VCs on the board -- heading straight off a cliff due to not ever finding product/market fit.Ironically, once a startup is successful, and you ask the founders what made it successful, they will usually cite all kinds of things that had nothing to do with it. People are terrible at understanding causation. But in almost every case, the cause was actually product/market fit.Because, really, what else could it possibly be?[Editorial note: this post obviously raises way more questions than it answers. How exactly do you go about getting to product/market fit if you don't hit it right out of the gate? How do you evaluate markets for size and quality, especially before they're fully formed? What actually makes a product "fit" a market? What role does timing play? How do you know when to change strategy and go after a different market or build a different product? When do you need to change out some or all of your team? And why can't you count on on a great team to build the right product and find the right market? All these topics will be discussed in future posts in this series.]The Pmarca Guide to Startups, part 5: The Moby Dick theory of big companies "There she blows," was sung out from the mast-head. "Where away?" demanded the captain."Three points off the lee bow, sir.""Raise up your wheel. Steady!" "Steady, sir.""Mast-head ahoy! Do you see that whale now?""Ay ay, sir! A shoal of Sperm Whales! There she blows! There she breaches!""Sing out! sing out every time!""Ay Ay, sir! There she blows! there -- there -- THAR she blows -- bowes -- bo-o-os!""How far off?""Two miles and a half.""Thunder and lightning! so near! Call all hands."-- J. Ross Browne's Etchings of a Whaling Cruize, 1846There are times in the life of a startup when you have to deal with big companies.Maybe you're looking for a partnership or distribution deal. Perhaps you want an investment. Sometimes you want a marketing or sales alliance. From time to time you need a big company's permission to do something. Or maybe a big company has approached you and says it wants to buy your startup.The most important thing you need to know going into any discussion or interaction with a big
company is that you're Captain Ahab, and the big company is Moby Dick."Scarcely had we proceeded two days on the sea, when about sunrise a great many Whales and other monsters of the sea, appeared. Among the former, one was of a most monstrous size. ... This came towards us, open-mouthed, raising the waves on all sides, and beating the sea before him into a foam." -- Tooke's Lucian, "The True History"When Captain Ahab went in search of the great white whale Moby Dick, he had absolutely no idea whether he would find Moby Dick, whether Moby Dick would allow himself to be found, whether Moby Dick would try to immediately capsize the ship or instead play cat and mouse, or whether Moby Dick was off mating with his giant whale girlfriend.What happened was entirely up to Moby Dick.And Captain Ahab would never be able explain to himself or anyone else why Moby Dick would do whatever it was he'd do.You're Captain Ahab, and the big company is Moby Dick."Clap eye on Captain Ahab, young man, and thou wilt find that he has only one leg." "What do you mean, sir? Was the other one lost by a whale?""Lost by a whale! Young man, come nearer to me: it was devoured, chewed up, crunched by the monstrousest parmacetty that ever chipped a boat! -- ah, ah!"-- Moby DickHere's why:The behavior of any big company is largely inexplicable when viewed from the outside.I always laugh when someone says, "Microsoft is going to do X", or "Google is going to do Y", or "Yahoo is going to do Z".Odds are, nobody inside Microsoft, Google, or Yahoo knows what Microsoft, Google, or Yahoo is going to do in any given circumstance on any given issue.Sure, maybe the CEO knows, if the issue is really big, but you're probably not dealing at the CEO level, and so that doesn't matter.The inside of any big company is a very, very complex system consisting of many thousands of people, of whom at least hundreds and probably thousands are executives who think they have some level of decision-making authority.On any given issue, many people inside the company are going to get some kind of vote on what happens -- maybe 8 people, maybe 10, 15, 20, sometimes many more.When I was at IBM in the early 90's, they had a formal decision making process called "concurrence" -- on any given issue, a written list of the 50 or so executives from all over the company who would be affected by the decision in any way, no matter how minor, would be assembled, and any one of those executives could "nonconcur" and veto the decision. That's an extreme case, but even a non-extreme version of this process -- and all big companies have one; they have to -- is mind-bendingly complex to try to understand, even from the inside, let alone the outside."... and the breath of the whale is frequently attended with such an insupportable smell, as to bring on a disorder of the brain." -- Ulloa's South AmericaYou
can count on there being a whole host of impinging forces that will affect the dynamic of decision-making on any issue at a big company.The consensus building process, trade-offs, quids pro quo, politics, rivalries, arguments, mentorships, revenge for past wrongs, turf-building, engineering groups, product managers, product marketers, sales, corporate marketing, finance, HR, legal, channels, business development, the strategy team, the international divisions, investors, Wall Street analysts, industry analysts, good press, bad press, press articles being written that you don't know about, customers, prospects, lost sales, prospects on the fence, partners, this quarter's sales numbers, this quarter's margins, the bond rating, the planning meeting that happened last week, the planning meeting that got cancelled this week, bonus programs, people joining the company, people leaving the company, people getting fired by the company, people getting promoted, people getting sidelined, people getting demoted, who's sleeping with whom, which dinner party the CEO went to last night, the guy who prepares the Powerpoint presentation for the staff meeting accidentally putting your startup's name in too small a font to be read from the back of the conference room...You can't possibly even identify all the factors that will come to bear on a big company's decision, much less try to understand them, much less try to influence them very much at all."The larger whales, whalers seldom venture to attack. They stand in so great dread of some of them, that when out at sea they are afraid to mention even their names, and carry dung, lime-stone, juniper-wood, and some other articles of the same nature in their boats, in order to terrify and prevent their too near approach." -- Uno Von Troil's Letters on Banks's and Solander's Voyage to Iceland In 1772Back to Moby Dick.Moby Dick might stalk you for three months, then jump out of the water and raise a huge ruckus, then vanish for six months, then come back and beach your whole boat, or alternately give you the clear shot you need to harpoon his giant butt.And you're never going to know why.A big company might study you for three months, then approach you and tell you they want to invest in you or partner with you or buy you, then vanish for six months, then come out with a directly competitive product that kills you, or alternately acquire you and make you and your whole team rich.And you're never going to know why.The upside of dealing with a big company is that there's potentially a ton of whale meat in it for you.Sorry, mixing my metaphors. The right deal with the right big company can have a huge impact on a startup's success."And what thing soever besides cometh within the chaos of this monster's mouth, be it beast, boat, or stone, down it goes all incontinently that foul great swallow of his, and perisheth in the bottomless gulf of his paunch." -- Holland's Plutarch's MoralsThe downside of dealing with a big company is that he can capsize you -- maybe by stepping on you in one way or another and killing you, but
more likely by wrapping you up in a bad partnership that ends up holding you back, or just making you waste a huge amount of time in meetings and get distracted from your core mission.So what to do?First, don't do startups that require deals with big companies to make them successful.The risk of never getting those deals is way too high, no matter how hard you are willing to work at it.And even if you get the deals, they probably won't work out the way you hoped."'Stern all!' exclaimed the mate, as upon turning his head, he saw the distended jaws of a large Sperm Whale close to the head of the boat, threatening it with instant destruction; -- 'Stern all, for your lives!'" -- Wharton the Whale KillerSecond, never assume that a deal with a big company is closed until the ink hits the paper and/or the cash hits the company bank account.There is always something that can cause a deal that looks like it's closed, to suddenly get blown to smithereens -- or vanish without a trace.At day-break, the three mast-heads were punctually manned afresh. "D'ye see him?" cried Ahab after allowing a little space for the light to spread."See nothing, sir."-- Moby DickThird, be extremely patient.Big companies play "hurry up and wait" all the time. In the last few years I've dealt with one big East Coast technology company in particular that has played "hurry up and wait" with me at least four separate times -- including a mandatory immediate cross-country flight just to have dinner with the #2 executive -- and has never followed through on anything.If you want a deal with a big company, it is probably going to take a lot longer to put together than you think."My God! Mr. Chace, what is the matter?" I answered, "we have been stove by a whale." -- "Narrative of the Shipwreck of the Whale Ship Essex of Nantucket, Which Was Attacked and Finally Destroyed by a Large Sperm Whale in the Pacific Ocean" by Owen Chace of Nantucket, First Mate of Said Vessel, New York, 1821Fourth, beware bad deals.I am thinking of one high-profile Internet startup in San Francisco right now that is extremely promising, has great technology and a unique offering, that did two big deals early with high-profile big company partners, and has become completely hamstrung in its ability to execute on its core business as a result.Fifth, never, ever assume a big company will do the obvious thing.What is obvious to you -- or any outsider -- is probably not obvious on the inside, once all the other factors that are involved are taken into account.Sixth, be aware that big companies care a lot more about what other big companies are doing than what any startup is doing.Hell, big companies often care a lot more about what other big companies are doing than they care about what their customers are doing.Moby Dick cared a lot more about what the other giant white whales were doing than those annoying little people in that flimsy boat."The Whale
is harpooned to be sure; but bethink you, how you would manage a powerful unbroken colt, with the mere appliance of a rope tied to the root of his tail." -- A Chapter on Whaling in Ribs and TrucksSeventh, if doing deals with big companies is going to be a key part of your strategy, be sure to hire a real pro who has done it before.Only the best and most experienced whalers had a chance at taking down Moby Dick.This is why senior sales and business development people get paid a lot of money. They're worth it."Oh! Ahab," cried Starbuck, "not too late is it, even now, the third day, to desist. See! Moby Dick seeks thee not. It is thou, thou, that madly seekest him!" -- Moby DickEighth, don't get obsessed.Don't turn into Captain Ahab.By all means, talk to big companies about all kinds of things, but always be ready to have the conversation just drop and to return to your core business.Rare is the startup where a deal with a big company leads to success, or lack thereof leads to huge failure.(However, see also Microsoft and Digital Research circa 1981. Talk about a huge whale.)Closing thought:Diving beneath the settling ship, the whale ran quivering along its keel; but turning under water, swiftly shot to the surface again, far off the other bow, but within a few yards of Ahab's boat, where, for a time, the whale lay quiescent. "...Towards thee I roll, thou all-destroying but unconquering whale; to the last I grapple with thee; from hell's heart I stab at thee; for hate's sake I spit my last breath at thee. Sink all coffins and all hearses to one common pool! and since neither can be mine, let me then tow to pieces, while still chasing thee, though tied to thee, thou damned whale! THUS, I give up the spear!"The harpoon was darted; the stricken whale flew forward; with igniting velocity the line ran through the grooves; -- ran foul. Ahab stooped to clear it; he did clear it; but the flying turn caught him round the neck, and voicelessly as Turkish mutes bowstring their victim, he was shot out of the boat, ere the crew knew he was gone.-- Moby DickSENTAPUA! E vamos a luta, Filhos da Patria!
Hi Folks,Mais um imperdivel, de macro economia. JEAN PISANI-FERRY O preco da prevencao de crises O valor das futuras perdas produtivas causadas pelas crises pode equivaler ao PIB mundial, ou US$ 60 tri PASSARAM-SE dois anos desde a erupcao das crises financeiras, e so agora estamos comecando a compreender o quanto foi dispendioso combate-las. Andrew Haldane, do Banco da Inglaterra, estima que o valor corrente das futuras perdas de producao causadas pelas crises pode bem equivaler a 100% do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) mundial. A estimativa pode parecer espantosamente alta, mas, na verdade, e relativamente conservadora, porque presume que apenas um quarto do choque inicial resultara em producao mais baixa em carater permanente. Segundo os verdadeiros pessimistas -aqueles que acreditam que a maioria do choque, ou todo ele, exercera impacto permanente sobre a producao-, a perda total pode ser duas ou tres vezes maior. Um ano do PIB mundial equivale a cerca de US$ 60 trilhoes, ou cinco seculos de assistencia oficial ao desenvolvimento, ou, para ser ainda mais concreto, a 10 bilhoes de salas de aula em aldeias africanas. E claro que esse nao e um custo direto para os orcamentos publicos (o custo total dos pacotes de resgates a bancos e muito menor), mas a perda de producao e o custo que importa mais ao considerarmos de que maneira reduzir a frequencia de crises. Presuma que, na ausencia de medidas preventivas adequadas, uma crise com custo equivalente a um ano do PIB mundial ocorra a cada 50 anos (uma suposicao bruta mas nao insensata). Seria racional, nesse caso, que os cidadaos do planeta pagassem por uma apolice de seguro, desde que seu custo ficasse abaixo de 2% do PIB (100%:50). Uma maneira simples de reduzir a frequencia de crises e requerer que os bancos dependam mais de capital do que de captacao, de modo a que possam incorrer em maiores prejuizos sem quebrar -uma medida que, no momento, esta em consideracao em todo o mundo. Gracas a relatorios divulgados recentemente pelo Conselho de Estabilidade Financeira e pelo Comite da Basileia, estamos mais informados agora sobre o impacto provavel de medidas regulatorias como essa. O primeiro relatorio constata que, partindo do atual nivel baixo de capitalizacao bancaria, o aumento de um ponto percentual nos requisitos de capitalizacao reduziria a frequencia de crises em um terco, de forma permanente, e geraria elevacao de taxas de juros de cerca de 13 pontos basicos (os bancos teriam de cobrar mais porque o custo de levantar capital e maior do que o de emitir titulos de divida). Em outras palavras, o preco de perder um ano de producao mundial a cada 75 anos (em vez de 50), levaria os bancos a elevar os custos de seus emprestimos de 4% para 4,13%. O segundo relatorio constatou que a alta de um ponto percentual nos requisitos de capitalizacao bancaria, se introduzido gradualmente ao longo de quatro anos, reduziria o PIB em cerca de 0,2%. Se considerarmos que altas em tres pontos percentuais sao mencionadas frequentemente, o efeito total seria de 0,6%. Mas ha muitas incertezas. O relatorio
aponta, estranhamente, que elevar a meta de capitalizacao poderia ter efeito muito mais adverso nos EUA do que na zona do euro, a despeito de a segunda depender mais de financiamentos bancarios. Alem disso, o relatorio presume que a politica monetaria seja capaz de compensar parte do choque, o que pode nao ser verdade nos paises em que juros proximos de zero estao em vigor ou na zona do euro, em que o esforco pode variar entre os paises mesmo que a politica monetaria seja uniforme. Assim, o impacto dos novos regulamentos sobre os paises nos quais os bancos estejam significativamente subcapitalizados poderia facilmente ser quatro a cinco vezes superior ao numero de referencia, ou seja, proximo de 1% no prazo de quatro anos. Pode parecer pouco, mas nao se trata de um montante trivial, tendo em vista as perspectivas de crescimento dos paises desenvolvidos, em curto prazo. Em um periodo de crescimento lento demais para reduzir o imenso desemprego, cada fracao de ponto percentual conta. Nao resta duvida de que vale a pena pagar em longo prazo o custo do seguro contra crises. Mas isso nao significa que nao devamos procurar a reforma com o melhor custo-beneficio. JEAN PISANI-FERRY e diretor do instituto de pesquisa europeu Bruegel. Este artigo foi distribuido pelo Project Syndicate. Traducao de PAULO MIGLIACCI AMANHA EM MERCADO: Gustavo CerbasiSENTAPUA! E vamos a luta, Filhos da Patria!
"o inedito", que o vem salvar. Igreja, cinema, botequim: todos os tres tambem nutrem expectativas de salvacao; a maquina audiovisual e tambem viciante CHRISTOPH TURCKE filosofoRAIO-X CHRISTOPH TURCKE VIDA Nasceu em Hamelin (Alemanha), em 1948. Professor de filosofia na Universidade de Estudos Graficos e Artes Livreiras de Leipzig, e autor de mais de 15 livros FORMACAO Estudou teologia evangelica e filosofia em Gottingen, Tubingen, Zurique e Frankfurt OUTRA OBRA"O Louco - Nietzsche e a Mania da Razao" (Vozes) SENTAPUA! E vamos a luta, Filhos da Patria!
Hi Folks, Antes que deem sumico, a entrevista de Eric Smith, no WSJ.Google and the Search for the FutureThe Web icon's CEO on the mobile computing revolution, the future of newspapers, and privacy in the digital age.By HOLMAN W. JENKINS, JR.To some, Google has been looking a bit sallow lately. The stock is down. Where once everything seemed to go the company's way, along came Apple's iPhone, launching a new wave of Web growth on a platform that largely bypassed the browser and Google's search box. The "app" revolution was going to spell an end to Google's dominance of Web advertising.But that's all so six-months-ago. When a group of Journal editors sat down with Eric Schmidt on a recent Friday, Google's CEO sounded nothing like a man whose company was facing a midlife crisis, let alone intimations of mortality.For one thing, just a couple days earlier, Google had publicly estimated that 200,000 Android smartphones were being activated daily by cell carriers on behalf of customers. That's a doubling in just three months. Since the beginning of the year, Android phones have been outselling iPhones by an increasing clip and seem destined soon to outstrip Apple in global market share.True, Apple sells its phones for luscious margins, while Google gives away Android to handset makers for free. But not to worry, says Mr. Schmidt: "You get a billion people doing something, there's lots of ways to make money. Absolutely, trust me. We'll get lots of money for it.""In general in technology," he says, "if you own a platform that's valuable, you can monetize it." Example: Google is obliged to share with Apple search revenue generated by iPhone users. On Android, Google gets to keep 100%. That difference alone, says Mr. Schmidt, is more than enough to foot the bill for Android's continued development.And coming soon is Chrome OS, which Google hopes will do in tablets and netbooks what Android is doing in smartphones, i.e., give Google a commanding share of the future and leave, in this case, Microsoft in the dust.Can it all be so easy? Google's stock price has fallen nearly $250 since the beginning of the year. Financial pundits have started to ask skeptical questions, wondering why it doesn't give more of its ample cash back to shareholders in the form of buybacks and dividends. Some suspect that all that temptation merely encourages Mr. Schmidt, along with founders Sergey Brin and Larry Pagethe triumvirate running the companyto splurge on gimmicky ideas that never pay off. Fortune magazine recently called Google a "cash cow" and suggested more attention be paid to milking it rather than running off in search of the next big thing.But to hear Mr. Schmidt tell it, the real challenge is one not yet on most investors' minds: how to preserve Google's franchise in Web advertising, the source of almost all its profits, when "search" is outmoded.The day is coming when the Google search boxand the activity known as Googlingno longer will be at the center of our online lives. Then what? "We're trying to figure out what the