do jogo antes de decidirsobre possiveis aliancas, uma vez que a maioria dos observadores acredita que uma SAO PAULO 00000030 003 OF 003 candidato presidencial PMDB nao se sairia bem abaixo doactual sistema de "verticalizacao." Temer apareceu aberta aa possibilidade de uma alianca ou com o PT ou oPSDB, ou para um stand-alone PMDB candidato. dada a suaorientacao centrista, o PMDB pode manter o equilibrio de votosentre a PT de Lula eo PSDB oposicao, e, portanto, ursosacompanhando de perto nos proximos meses. End Comment. 11. (U) Nota biografica: Michel Miguel Elias Temer Luliatem servido como deputado federal de Sao Paulo desde 1987,exceto por um periodo de dois anos (1993-1994), quando ele foi secretariode Seguranca Publica do governo do Estado de Sao Paulo. EleEstudou na Universidade de Sao Paulo e ganhou umDoutorado em Direito pela Universidade Catolica de Sao Paulo.De 1984 a 1986 ele foi Procurador do EstadoGeral. Serviu como o lider do PMDB na Camara deDeputados 1995-1997 e como Presidente da Camara de 1997-2000.Foi presidente nacional do PMDB 2001-03 e 2004-presente. 12. (U) Este cabo foi cancelado / coordenada com EmbassyBrasilia.1. (U) Sensitive but Unclassified - protect accordingly. 2. (SBU) Summary: Federal Deputy Michel Temer, national president of the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB), believes that public disillusion with President Lula and the Workers' Party (PT) provides an opportunity for the PMDB to field its own candidate in the 2006 presidential election. However, party divisions and the lack of a compelling choice as a candidate could force the PMDB into an alliance with Lula's PT or the opposition PSDB. If Lula's polling numbers do not improve before the PMDB primaries in March, Temer said his party might nominate its own candidate. This would still allow the party to forge an alliance with the PT or PSDB in a runoff, assuming that the PMDB candidate fails to make the second round. Given its centrist orientation, the PMDB may hold the balance of votes between the two opposing forces. It is also likely to remain a force at the local and state level. Temer believes it has a chance to win as many as 14 gubernatorial races. End Summary. --------------------------- With Allies Like This . . . --------------------------- 3. (SBU) Michel Temer, a Federal deputy from Sao Paulo who served as president of the Chamber of Deputies from 1997 through 2000, met January 9 with CG and poloffs to discuss the current political situation. Lula's election, he said, had raised great hope among the Brazilian people, but his performance in office has been disappointing. Temer criticized Lula's narrow vision and his excessive focus on social safety net programs that don't promote growth or economic development. The PT had campaigned on one program and, once in office, had done the opposite of what it promised, which Temer characterized as electoral fraud. Worse, some PT leaders had stolen state money, not for personal gain, but to expand the party's power, and had thus fomented a great deal of popular disillusion. ------------------------- PMDB Perceives an Opening ------------------------- 4. (SBU) This reality, Temer continued, opens an opportunity for