thegoodfellas/blogset-br huggingface dataset:
dos funcionarios publicos ativos e inativos.Ou ainda por meio da elevacao dos recursos que o BNDES tem disponivel para emprestar a taxas de juros subsidiadas. Independente de mais ou menos meritorias, todas essas acoes elevam a demanda.A maior demanda por servicos enseja um processo de alta dos precos para que, em seguida, a oferta se eleve. Esse processo tem sido observado nos ultimos anos. O mesmo nao ocorre, porem, com os bens manufaturados. Neste caso, a expansao da demanda e atendida principalmente pela importacao dos bens manufaturados. A solucao, no entanto, certamente nao e a de fechar ainda mais a economia. O cerceamento ainda maior as importacoes teria como resultado mais inflacao: alem de os precos dos servicos subirem, haveria alta tambem dos precos dos bens manufaturados. O Banco Central teria de subir ainda mais os juros para esfriar o crescimento da economia.A tragedia para a industria e a assimetria entre os servicos e os bens manufaturados. Estes ultimos sao transacionaveis internacionalmente, ao contrario dos servicos. O problema e que e possivel colocar um carro em um navio e transporta-lo. O mesmo, em geral, nao ocorre com os servicos. (se ocorresse, o Brasil exportaria carros para a Coreia e esta exportaria, provavelmente, servicos educacionais para o Brasil, nos quais eles sao muito superiores a nos.). Portanto, e dificil imaginar que uma economia de baixa poupanca e que tenha fortes vantagens comparativas na producao de bens primarios - em um momento em que boa parte da humanidade demanda esses produtos basicos - crescera com expansao da participacao da industria manufatureira no produto. Ocorrera provavelmente o oposto: uma lenta, mas continua, queda da participacao das manufaturas no produto.Uma questao adicional e se ha espaco para o Brasil elevar a poupanca. A poupanca das familias brasileiras corresponde a 5% do PIB. Na China, atinge 22%. A diferenca deve-se ao fato de o Brasil ter um estado de bem-estar social muito mais generoso do que o chines. A menos que ocorra forte mudanca no equilibrio politico que vigora desde a redemocratizacao - que levou a construcao desse estado de bem estar social muito abrangente -, nao ha espaco para a elevacao da poupanca das familias.A poupanca das empresas, por sua vez, que no Brasil se encontra na casa dos 15% do PIB (na China e de 22%), somente eleva-se se houver reducao dos salarios ou elevacao dos precos dos bens finais produzidos pelas empresas. Ambos, precos e salarios, sao definidos no mercado. A menos que haja profunda alteracao da regulacao dos mercados - incluindo alteracao nos direitos de organizacao sindical, entre inumeros outros - nao parece haver espaco para crescimento muito acentuado dos lucros das empresas.Finalmente, a ampliacao da poupanca do setor publico, que no Brasil e negativa em 3% do PIB (na China e positiva em 5%), requer reducao do gasto publico - quer seja na forma de salarios de servidores (ativos e inativos), dos programas sociais ou dos juros. Com a recente queda da taxa Selic, ha espaco para alguma elevacao da poupanca publica.Nos outros itens do Orcamento, nao parece haver muito espaco. Mesmo
o aumento do investimento inicial. Se a oferta de credito fosse totalmente inelastica, o aumento do investimento deveria ser financiado sempre pela poupanca previa, dexando o investimento de ser uma variavel autonoma. Porem, como se bem sabe, no mundo real, ha capacidade ociosa e ha credito disponivel nas instituicoes financieras (ainda que nao pra todo mundo, mas ha...).[Isso pra nao dizer das consequencias imediatas da falta de capacidade ociosa, que, ao contrario do que suporia o autor, acabariam por incentivar ainda mais as inversoes...]Nao considerar algumas hipoteses no modelo e algo natural na economia, afinal, como se diz por ai: pra que serve uma maquete tamanho real? Mas e essencial que as hipoteses ignoradas sejam constantemente revisadas a fim de que nao se chegue a um modelo esdruxulo capaz de nos oferece conclusoes equivocadas sobre a economia e propostas incabiveis. Hipoteses sao necessarias, mas calma ai, ja temos elemento suficientes na economia (e na computacao) para fazermos modelos de analise dinamicos que inserem no estudo de longo prazo fatores como os mensionados acima. Nao da pra continuar errando como antes.
China apresenta um dinamismo tao grande.A analise dos multiplicadores pode ser complementada pela avaliacao dos indices de ligacao para tras e para frente. Esses indices mostram, respectivamente, quais sao os setores com maior potencial de impulsionar a economia, e quais sao os principais fornecedores para as cadeias produtivas. Em todos os paises, o que se verifica e que os setores manufatureiros sao os que apresentam maiores indices de ligacao para tras, o que significa que esses setores sao os mais dinamicos no sentido de estimular a producao da economia como um todo. Por outro lado, os setores de utilidades (agua, energia e etc.), petroleo, quimico e commodities minerais sao os que apresentam maiores indices de ligacao para frente, indicando a importancia de se ter esses setores estruturados para que a economia nao enfrente gargalos na producao.Por fim, a analise dos indices de ligacao puros normalizados permite avaliar a importancia dos setores para a economia, tanto em termos do encadeamento, quanto em relacao ao tamanho do setor. Com relacao as commodities agricolas e quimicas, verificam-se valores elevados em todos os Brics, exceto na Russia, demonstrando a importancia desses setores para o desenvolvimento da industria de alimentos, que apresenta elevados indices de ligacao para tras. Porem, o setor de commodities minerais nao apresenta o mesmo dinamismo. Esse indicador e superior a unidade apenas na China, o que demonstra que Brasil, Russia e India exportam tais produtos com baixo grau de processamento, nao se aproveitando da producao desse setor para desenvolver uma industria metal-mecanica diversificada, tal como tem feito a China.Assim, o que se verifica a partir dessa analise e que, apesar do termo "Brics" unir Brasil, Russia, India e China, as bases produtivas e as estrategias desses paises no comercio internacional se diferem bastante. Enquanto os elevados multiplicadores e indices de ligacao chineses, principalmente no setor manufatureiro, demonstram que a estrutura produtiva desse pais e bastante articulada, por outro lado, no Brasil, na India e, principalmente, na Russia, ha uma forte dependencia da producao e exportacao de commodities com baixo grau de processamento. Ademais, vale ressaltar que, independentemente do pais analisado, os indices calculados revelam que o setor manufatureiro e o que apresenta maior inter-relacao com o resto da economia. Assim, uma estrategia que tenha por finalidade galgar patamares expressivos de crescimento no longo prazo deve levar em consideracao as vantagens de uma estrutura produtiva orientada para o setor manufatureiro, podendo ser ainda dinamizada quando associada a setores primarios, como se verificou no caso da industria petrolifera.Guilherme Magacho e Igor Rocha sao economistas, doutorandos pela University of Cambridge, Inglaterra.Nelson Marconi e economista e professor da EESP-FGV.http://www.valor.com.br/opiniao/3637636/dinamica-economica-nos-brics#ixzz3Aqk9zrYQ
There is no guarantee that the strong export performance of Indias services can be indefinitely sustained, and generate sufficient foreign exchange earnings to finance rising deficits. The major destinations of Indias IT-enabled services exports, and the main sources of remittances (since the mid-1990s) have been the US and Europe. The slow economic recovery in the US, economic recession in Europe in the backdrop of the Euro crisis and the possibility of tighter immigration laws in Europe have the potential to significantly affect Indias exports of services and remittances. Even the potential to significantly increase receipts from the Middle East, another major source of Indias remittances, has narrowed with the slowing down of the oil boom in these countries in the late 1990s and early 2000s, and the plateauing out of the Indian diaspora in this region with respect to size and economic scope. Moreover, short-term inflows such as portfolio investment appreciate the real effective exchange rate, and further widen trade and current account deficits. The persistence of large trade deficits, can, over time, reduce investor confidence, ultimately resulting in a reversal of inflows and speculative attacks on the domestic currency.What the Indian economy strongly needs are proactive policy efforts to be directed towards accelerating the growth and expansion of agriculture and industry. This calls for more research and development (R&D) programs through public-private partnerships; credit policies that will make it easier for industrial entrepreneurs to replace outdated or inefficient capital equipment; the establishment of more development financial institutions and subsidies to firms for investing in R&D. Public investment, education policies, vocational training programmes and government procurement policies need to be directed to the increase of labor skills and well paid, high- productivity jobs that reduce the needs for imports, and the dependence on services exports, remittances, and volatile capital flows. There is also a need for more comprehensive employment generation initiatives through infrastructural development and rural development programs. Indias development strategy needs to be one that promotes the growth of the domestic market in order to raise the living standards of its population without hitting the external demand constraint. It should not merely seek to integrate into global markets through a reliance on low-wage services exports, implying the exploitation of its workers, for the benefit of global consumers.(Originally published in Spanish in Pagina/12 with information on the author here)
equilibrium state is governed by exogenous forces such as unchanging production patternsover time (Kaldor 1972: 1244).But once increasing returns to scale are assumed, the dynamic system has endogenous forces that drive it in ways away from equilibrium.(3) Kaldor moves on to another issue by the end of his paper, which is the nature of buffer stocks in modern economies.In primary product markets, which tend to be a rough equivalent of competitive flexprice markets, stocks are carried by merchants who are independent of producers and consumers. These dealers carry stocks that act as buffers.But in other markets where increasing returns to scale exist often producers carry their own stocks and adjust their output in response to demand (Kaldor 1972: 1250).The ability to increase production in response to demand is achieved in modern capitalism by an endogenous money supply: a banking and monetary system where capital investment can be financed by new money.Kaldor notes thatThis is the real significance of the invention of paper money and of credit creation through the banking system. It provided the pre-condition of self-sustained growth. With a purely metallic currency, where the supply of money is given irrespective of the demand for credit, the ability of the system to expand in response to profit opportunities is far more narrowly confined. (Kaldor 1972: 1250).BIBLIOGRAPHYDebreu, Gerard. 1959. Theory of Value: An Axiomatic Analysis of Economic Equilibrium. Wiley, New York and London.Kaldor, N. 1972. The Irrelevance of Equilibrium Economics,Economic Journal 82: 12371252.from: http://socialdemocracy21stcentury.blogspot.com.br/2013/05/kaldor-on-irrelevance-of-equilibrium.html
of high finance, must be recognized as the imperative for the political viability of the Euro project. We must have the intellectual honesty and courage to act accordingly.Signed by----Amit BhaduriJawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, IndiaThomas Boylan National University of Ireland, Galway, IrelandSergio Cesaratto Universita degli studi, Siena, ItalyNadia Garbellini Universita degli Studi di Pavia, ItalyTorsten Niechoj Rhine-Waal University of Applied Sciences, Kamp-Lintfort, GermanyGabriel Palma University of Cambridge, UKSrinivas Raghavendra National University of Ireland, Galway, IrelandRune Skarstein Norwegian University of Science and Technology, NorwayHerbert Walther Vienna University of Economics and Business, AustriaAriel L. Wirkierman Universita Cattolica di Milano, ItalyKazimierz Laski University of Linz, Austria Corresponding author: Srinivas Raghavendra (s.raghav@nuigalway.ie)Posted by Matias Vernengo at 6:10 AM on 15th November; From: NAKED KEYNESIANISM
Labor Theory of BeerThe graph above shows the number of minutes that workers have to work to buy 500ml of beer (h/t to Renata Lins of chopinhofemenino, great blog if you read Portuguese). By the way, a pint in the US is slightly less than that (around 473ml). Note that the amount of time a worker needs to work depends on the price in dollars. So, for example, China is at the bottom of the list, with workers getting to bliss (yep a General Equilibrium concept bitches) in less than ten minutes, because beer is cheap in dollars, not as a result of high wages. Japanese workers, on the other hand, with higher wages, need to work more like 15 minutes because beer is really expensive.From: NAKED KEYNESIANISM Entrevista do Paul Krugman a Playboyhttp://www.playboy.com/magazine/playboy-interview-paul-krugmanHow can winning a Nobel Prize in economics seem like its no big deal?Well, if youve already won the John Bates Clark Medalan honor bestowed biennially on the American economist under 40 who has made major contributions to his profession youve already taken home a piece of hardware considered by many economists to be slightly harder to win than a Nobel. Only 12 people have won both, including Paul Krugman, who collected the 1991 Clark and then snagged the Nobel (and its $1.4 million check) in 2008.While Krugmans elite status within the economics profession rests on his groundbreaking theory of international trade and his expertise on a host of international financial crises, his broader national influence comes from the media real estate he occupies on the op-ed page of The New York Times, a column he began writing in 1999.Pointing to his relentless attacks on the Bush administrationwhich usually included creative ways to say liarconservatives fume that Krugman is a partisan Democrat. The current occupant of the White House may politely disagree with that accusation, as Krugman has also directed withering criticism at Barack Obama. Krugman is not hitting a man when hes down: While many of his peers in intellectual circles were swooning, Krugman was blistering candidate Obama during the 2008 Democratic primaries.But there is a difference between the Bush years and now: This administration frets about what Krugman says, partly because of his ideas but mainly because his voice is listened to by legions of liberals disappointed with what they perceive to be the presidents failures. The administration courts himhe has dined on roast beef with the president at the White House, along with such other critics as fellow Nobel Prize winner Joseph Stiglitz. Krugmans tone of I knew it first and If you had listened to me... can be annoying to some politicos. But the problem is that he has more often than not been right.PLAYBOY sent noted economics writer Jonathan Tasini to find out Krugmans thinking about the current economic crisis, the Obama administrations handling of the financial meltdown, the politics rippling through the country as the 2012 presidential election looms and whether anything can be done to drag us back from the abyss. After many hours of conversation in New York and in Krugmans
Princeton University office, Tasini says, Krugman is a man who made his reputation, in part, on his fascination with and intellectual work on financial panics and collapses. So he is in his element now because he loves a good crisis. As he admitted candidly, he is not a bright-eyed, slap-you-on-the-back, optimistic cheerleader. Quite the opposite. The global economy is giving him a great canvas to draw adepressing picture, but hes also agitating for action that he says can get us out of the mess were in.PLAYBOY: It seems every month various people debate whether were in a depression or a recession. Where are werecession, depression? Or is it something else?KRUGMAN: The recession officially ended in June 2009 because that was the point when some things industrial production, GDP, but not employmentstarted to go up again. But I say were still in a depression. Ive taken to calling what were in the Lesser Depression. Its not as bad as the Great Depression, but its like the Great Depression. Its a prolonged period. Were now four years into high unemployment and lousy economic prospects for most people. If youve lost your job, your chance of getting another is small. The number of people whove been unemployed for long periods is at a level we certainly havent seen since the 1930s. What were experiencing is an economy that probably feels in a lot of ways like the U.S. economy in 1937, when, almost everyone now agrees, policy makers were way too complacent and should have kept on pushing for more employment. Its lousy.PLAYBOY: In 2002 you wrote that you were worried about the unemployment rateand it was only 5.7 percent. You also made the point that people had been out of work for longer periods than before, that people had given up looking. Now were almost double that rate.KRUGMAN: It really is catastrophic. If you include people who arent actively searching for a job and people who are working part-time even though they want full-time work, were up to about one in seven. That means the unemployment rate is 16 percent. I live in a fairly rarefied social class now and so probably hear a lot fewer personal horror stories. But I do hear them: people my age, 58-year-old guys whove lost jobs and see no chance of ever getting another one; young people out of college with good qualifications who cant find anything, who cant get their lives started. The human damage is enormous.PLAYBOY: Some of that debate is irrelevant to the average person. All they know is they dont have a job or they dont have a job that pays enough.KRUGMAN: The point is theres a tremendous amount of suffering. A lot of America is much worse off than it was four years ago. I think the main reason you should be angry about it is that its gratuitous. This doesnt have to be happening. We actually have the tools to make most of this go away. If we could throw aside the political prejudices and bad ideas that are crippling us, in
18 months we could be back to something that feels like a much better economy.PLAYBOY: So people in America today are suffering when they dont have to be because of policy makers who wont do the right thing?KRUGMAN: Thats right. Ive gotten some grief for my remark that if it were announced that we faced a threat from space aliens and needed to build up to defend ourselves, wed have full employment in a year and a half. But thats true. Why couldnt we do that to repair our sewer systems and put an extra tunnel under the Hudson instead of to fight imaginary space aliens? Everybody in the world except us is doing a lot of investment in infrastructure and education. This is the country of the Erie Canal and the Interstate Highway System. The Erie Canal was a huge public infrastructure project financed with no private or public-private partnership. Can you imagine doing that in 21st century America? We really have slid backward for the past 200 years from the kinds of things we used to understand needed to be done now and then. And all of that because we are shackled to the wrong ideas.PLAYBOY: Many people still believe efficient financial markets exist. Did that blind many economists to the biggest financial bubble in history?KRUGMAN: Environmental regulations could actually be creating jobs right now, but people say, Oh, thats crazy. How could that be true? Regulations add to costs. My answer is this: Doesthe story about the world that underlies what you guys are saying allow for what we see all around us? Do your theories explain nine percent unemployment and this monstrous economic collapse?PLAYBOY: Is the United States becoming a banana republic?KRUGMAN: In some important ways, yes. We used to talk about the classic problems of typically Latin American countries where the inability to achieve political consensus made it impossible to have effective economic policies. Well, thats us. And, of course, there are the levels of inequality. In a lot of ways, America now looks like the classic Latin American problem.PLAYBOY: During the financial crisis and particularly in the aftermath, many pundits blamed regular Americans for buying houses that were too expensive. Is that the cause of the financial crisis, people buying big houses?KRUGMAN: No, its not. They did that because they believed the prices would continue to rise, and the lenders believed the prices would continue to rise. Its not an evil thing to buy a house in the belief that if things go well, you will be able to afford it or sell it and pay off the mortgage. Of course, as always, people are trying to make it into those people being irresponsible and doing in the financial system. But its not that story. Its just a classic bubble, but its an enormous one.PLAYBOY: What about Wall Streets role?KRUGMAN: If youre asking why people were buying those houses, its because the money was being made available. Why was the money being made available? You had a whole machine making it seem as if dicey loans