TERRA VIVA: GENERAL LEONIDAS PIRES REVELA DETALHES DA DITADURA...: FONTE; GLOBO NEWS- PROGRAMA DOSSIE GLOBO NEWS JORNALISTA-GENETON MORAES NETO InfoMoney :: Especialistas apontam 10 dicas de como escolher um fundo de renda fixa 2010-04-06No Time for a Trade War NEW YORK The battle with the United States over Chinas exchange rate continues. When the Great Recession began, many worried that protectionism would rear its ugly head. True, G-20 leaders promised that they had learned the lessons of the Great Depression. But 17 of the G-20s members introduced protectionist measures just months after the first summit in November 2008. The Buy American provision in the United States stimulus bill got the most attention. Still, protectionism was contained, partly due to the World Trade Organization.Continuing economic weakness in the advanced economies risks a new round of protectionism. In America, for example, more than one in six workers who would like a full-time job cant find one. These were among the risks associated with Americas insufficient stimulus, which was designed to placate members of Congress as much as it was to revive the economy. With soaring deficits, a second stimulus appears unlikely, and, with monetary policy at its limits and inflation hawks being barely kept at bay, there is little hope of help from that department, either. So protectionism is taking pride of place.The US Treasury has been charged by Congress to assess whether China is a currency manipulator. Although President Obama has now delayed for some months when Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner must issue his report, the very concept of currency manipulation itself is flawed: all governments take actions that directly or indirectly affect the exchange rate. Reckless budget deficits can lead to a weak currency; so can low interest rates. Until the recent crisis in Greece, the US benefited from a weak dollar/euro exchange rate. Should Europeans have accused the US of manipulating the exchange rate to expand exports at its expense?Although US politicians focus on the bilateral trade deficit with China which is persistently large what matters is the multilateral balance. When demands for China to adjust its exchange rate began during George W. Bushs administration, its multilateral trade surplus was small. More recently, however, China has been running a large multilateral surplus as well.Saudi Arabia also has a bilateral and multilateral surplus: Americans want its oil, and Saudis want fewer US products. Even in absolute value, Saudi Arabias multilateral merchandise surplus of $212 billion in 2008 dwarfs Chinas $175 billion surplus; as a percentage of GDP, Saudi Arabias current-account surplus, at 11.5% of GDP, is more than twice that of China. Saudi Arabias surplus would be far higher were it not for US armaments exports.In a global economy with deficient aggregate demand, current-account surpluses are a problem. But Chinas current-account surplus is actually less than the combined figure for Japan and Germany; as a percentage of GDP, it is 5%, compared to Germanys 5.2%.Many factors other than exchange rates affect a countrys trade balance. A key determinant is national savings. Americas multilateral trade deficit will not be significantly narrowed until America