Credit Suisse 25/10/2013 Foreign investment in fixed-income securities still very strong in September Overview: The current-account deficit was $2.6bn in September, much lower than the deficit of the previous months and similar to that of September 2012. Septembers lower current-account deficit was mainly due to a higher trade surplus and a net inflow of remittances of profits and dividends, the first net inflow since January 2000. The current-account deficit in rolling 12-month terms remained stable at 3.6% of GDP ($80.5bn) in September 2013. Foreign direct investments (FDI) totaled $4.8bn in September, in line with our forecast and very similar to the monthly average so far this year. In cumulative 12-month terms, FDI increased to $61.5bn, reducing the gap to the current-account deficit. Foreign investment in fixed-income securities totaled $7.2bn in September and $25bn from the date the Tax on Financial Transactions (IOF) on these investments was removed (June 4) through October 23 (latest data available). We expect the current-account deficit to stabilize at around 3.6% of GDP until the end of the year. We forecast that the rolling 12-month FDI will increase to $65bn by the end of the year, owing mainly to the payment for oil exploration concessions. The figures already available for October suggest that FDI will be significant for the month and that there will be a deceleration in portfolio investments. Foreign direct investments (FDI) totaled$4.8bn in September, higher than the inflows of $3.8bn in August and $4.4bn inSeptember 2012. The result was in line with our forecast and the median marketconsensus. In cumulative 12-month terms, FDI rose from $61.1bn in August to$61.5bn in September (Exhibit 3). The FDI breakdown for September shows thatintercompany loans posted a deficit of $0.3bn. Thus, FDI in equity capital($5.1bn) accounts for all FDI inflows into the country in September. Eachtransaction for FDI in equity capital amounted to $0.5bn or less in September.The Central Bank of Brazil expects FDI of $5.2bn in October, given that theresult through October 23 totaled $4.2bn. Foreignportfolio investments (in equities and fixed-income securities traded inBrazil) posted a net inflow of $9.5bn in September, versus an inflow of $6.2bnin August and an outflow of $0.5bn in September 2012. Investments in equitiesaccounted for an inflow of $2.2bn last month. Net inflows into fixed-incomesecurities traded in Brazil posted a surplus of $7.2bn in September and $24.9bnfrom the withdrawal of the IOF levy on June 4 through 23 October.In 12-month terms, foreign portfolio investments rose from $31.2bn in August to$41.1bn in September. According to the Central Bank of Brazil,foreign investment into fixed income securities totaled $0.9bn in Octoberthrough 23, and there was an outflow of $0.3bn in equities in the same period.Deficit em conta corrente em setembro e o dobro do previsto pelo BC Por Alex Ribeiro e Eduardo Campos | Valor 25/10 BRASILIA - O Brasil registrou, em setembro, deficit de US$ 2,629 bilhoes em suas transacoes correntes com outros paises, conta que ja acumula saldo negativo de US$ 60,416 bilhoes desde o inicio do ano, informou nesta sexta-feira o Banco Central (BC).O deficit previsto pelo proprio BC era de US$ 1,3