the PMDB. The party currently holds nine statehouses and has the second-highest number of federal deputies (after the PT), along with a great many mayoralties and city council and state legislative seats. Polls show that voters are tired of both the PT and the main opposition party, the Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB). For example, a recent poll showed former governor (and PMDB state chairman) Orestes Quercia leading in the race for Sao Paulo state governor. ----------------------- Divisions Dog the Party ----------------------- 5. (SBU) Asked why the PMDB remains so divided, Temer said the reasons were both historical and related to the nature of Brazilian political parties. The PMDB grew out of the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB) under the military dictatorship, which operated as an umbrella group for legitimate opposition to the military dictatorship. After the restoration of democracy, some members left the PMDB to form new parties (such as the PT and PSDB), but many of those who remained now act as power brokers at the local and regional level. Thus the PMDB has no real unifying national identity but rather an umbrella organization for regional "caciques" or bosses. Temer noted that the PMDB is not the only divided party. Although there are 28 political parties in Brazil, most of them do not represent an ideology or a particular line of political thinking that would support a national vision. ---------------------------- SAO PAULO 00000030 002 OF 003 PMDB Primaries Set for March ---------------------------- 6. (SBU) Temer confirmed press reports that he is seeking to move the March 5 primary date to a date later in the month. (Note: March 31 is the deadline for executives and Ministers to resign their offices if they plan to run for public office. End Note.) There will be some 20,000 electors, he said, including all PMDB members who hold electoral office (federal and state deputies, governors, mayors, vice-governors and -mayors, and other elected municipal officials) as well as delegates chosen at state conventions. --------------------------------------- Lula's Numbers Will Drive PMDB Strategy --------------------------------------- 7. (SBU) If, between now and the primary, the Lula government's standing in the polls improves, it is still possible the PMDB will seek an electoral alliance with Lula and the PT, Temer said. If not, the PMDB will run its own candidate. So far, Rio de Janeiro ex-governor Anthony Garotinho has been working the hardest, reaching out to the whole country in search of support. But there is resistance to him from within the PMDB, in part due to his populist image, in part because there appears to be a ceiling to his support. Germano Rigotto, governor of Rio Grande do Sul (reftels) is a possible candidate, though he is still not well known outside the south. Nelson Jobim, a judge on the Supreme Federal Tribunal (STF) who has announced his intention to step down, is another possibility; however, he can't campaign until he leaves the Tribunal, and he may not have time to attract the support necessary to win the primary. -------------------------------------------- PMDB's Fallback - PT or PSDB in Second Round -------------------------------------------- 8.