from: @TheEconomistA long-awaited recovery still fails to materialiseFOR many months Guido Mantega, Brazils finance minister, has been forecasting that the economy is on the verge of vigorous growth that never seems to come. Even so, the third-quarter figures published on November 30th were a shock. The government had convinced independent economists that a weaker currency, lower interest rates, and a cut in sales tax on cars and white goods would prompt a healthy expansion of 1.2% compared with the previous quarter. In the event, the figure was just 0.6%. The national statistics institute also slashed its estimate of second-quarter growth, from 0.4% to 0.2%. The numbers were disappointing, admitted Mr Mantega. But recovery, he insisted, is on the way: 4% growth will come next year, with 5% in 2014. Few now believe him. Analysts are slashing their predictions (see chart). Add last years anaemic 2.7% and Brazil is seeing its worst growth performance in over a decade.The nastiest surprise was the fall in investment, despite the governments efforts to lower business costs. The Central Bank has reduced the policy interest rate from 12.5% in mid-2011 to a record low of 7.25%; it has also pushed state banks to cut spreads and to lend more. A tax on foreign-currency inflows and the Central Banks interventions have engineered a fall in the painfully strong real of around 20% since February. The government has cut payroll taxes for manufacturers, promises a big cut in electricity tariffs, and has turned to the private sector to ease transport congestion.All this reads like a Brazilian businessmans dream come true. So why has the hoped-for investment boom not materialised? The governments high-handed approach and hostile attitude towards the private sector seem to have put off the very investors it hoped to attract. Brazils electricity prices, for example, are the worlds third-highest and a long-standing business bugbear. But the governments plan to cut tariffs by 20% risks misfiring because it overestimated utility firms margins and underestimated the rate of return they would require to renew contracts early.Some firms have decided not to sign up, even though that means they will probably lose their concessions when they expire. Eletrobras, a state-controlled giant, bowed to the governments wishes over those of minority shareholdersand saw its share price plummet. I fail to see how destroying shareholder value helps to attract investment, says Tony Volpon of Nomura Securities, a broker.Services, long the main source of new jobs, have stalled too. Financial services were hit by higher defaults, fewer loans and tighter profit margins. But the slowdown goes wider, says Silvia Matos of the Fundacao Getulio Vargas, a university. Past sources of productivity gains, such as easier registration for small companies and greater access to credit, have run their course, she says.The only good news for the government was that consumption by households is still growing, albeit at a slower pace than in the recent past. That, and keeping inflation under control, are the recipe for political popularity in Brazil. Dilma Rousseff, the president, is indeed popular. More than three-quarters of respondents in opinion polls