thegoodfellas/blogset-br huggingface dataset:
central bank, the ministry of finance, and the diwan, the oversight office or audit office. But overall, their IT systems are way behind what a country should have, so theres a lot of technocratic things once could do in the first instance to try and make the ministries function post-Qadhafi. The systems that were in place before were designed to only be workable with Qadhafi often just saying, Do it. That was the basic structure. When you lost that impulse he had also if things didnt work, he had also told Libyans for 42 years, Im not running the country. Youre running the country. Its the peoples revolution. Its the peoples Libya. And so with him gone, people have said to themselves, Well, Im running the country now. And so you had instead of a single impulse a multitude of impulses, many of which could not be carried out to conclusion.So in each period of time you try to learn from what went before. If you were to try and go back and say what should have been done differently, probably more focus quickly day-to-day when things didnt happen that should have happened, when Libya was not responding to what the UN was trying to do, to what the EU was trying to do, to what the UK, France, Italy, the United States, Spain, Germany were trying to do, perhaps there should have been more of a reckoning of it earlier. That you could have done.QUESTION: But you would be willing this is my last question, but would you be, the international community, provide security assistance in-country?MR WINER: The way in which the political agreement was struck --QUESTION: Not just --MR WINER: Yeah. The way the political --QUESTION: Substantial assistance.MR WINER: Im absolutely going to answer Im answering the question. The political agreement lays out a process in which the Libyans can ask the international community for help on security various types of security assistance, including help on countering terrorism, its expressly there; help on countering criminal groups and illegal migration, expressly there; help in fulfilling the carrying out of all the other terms of the political agreement. So theres a whole section in security relating to what the international community can do. There will be donors conferences and efforts by donors to kick up various types of help to Libya that would increase the capacity to deliver services quickly in such areas as public financial administration, as Ive mentioned. Theres going to need to be a national security structure, so theres going to need to be defense institution building. Therell be a need to train and equip, but focus on training first Libyan national forces who are depoliticized, who are seen as representing the country rather than being responsive to a particular militia leader. The document talks about the reconstitution of militias into a national force. Thats there in the political agreement.So the framework provides for a way in which Libya can ask other countries for help. It has to begin with the Libyans wanting the help. Part of the problem
after 2011 is various successive Libyan governments did not particularly want help and declined it in various ways repeatedly. When they did accept, it was it didnt come out well because of inadequate preparation of the environment, of the Libyan environment, and the way in which it was being carried out by the internationals to have it succeed. I left out the Jordanians. Their efforts to train also didnt go well. Maybe the Libyans themselves have learned from this process that more that they have to work a bit harder and be a bit more flexible too. They were very determined not to have foreigners dominate the country post-Qadhafi and tell them what to do. After the losses of this past period of time the suffering, the misery the suffering, the misery, the unhappiness they are clearly more open to getting help internationally. A number of countries are willing to come back and try and do that both within the region and beyond.QUESTION: Worst case scenario of the political --MODERATOR: Sorry, can you state your name and your --QUESTION: Vasili Sushko, Sputnik News. If a political agreement isnt reached correct me if Im wrong, you said that international support will cease?MR WINER: Well, theres almost no internationals in Libya today. Theres almost no international assistance today very, very little. Its not safe for people right now because there isnt a government one can rely on to provide protection. So you have very few foreigners living in Libya, let alone providing services, and assistance programs have by and large been cut off de facto, already. And the resources of the country have declined from 135 billion at the end, I believe, of 2013, to 88 billion at the end of 2014, and to some number below that today. I dont have up-to-date numbers, but theyve been continuing to bleed. Theyre producing oil at about 30 percent of what their capacities were instead of 1.5 million barrels a day, theyre producing somewhere from 250,000 to 400,000 barrels a day, the first bit of which is used for the domestic market. And oil prices, of course, are 50 cents on the dollar of what they were so their revenues have just been decimated literally reduced 90 percent. And the result is a growing financial crisis which is not sustainable. The day that they cannot buy medicine and food and refined oil gasoline and equipment cars and so on from the rest of the world is a bad day for is a bad day for Libya. And theyre going to come to that day if they dont find a way to come together and regain the legitimacy of their national institutions. Theyre also having growing litigation and litigation risk as the result of the division of national institutions into competing sides. In such a competition, potentially everybody loses because the transaction risk gets to be too great for partners to do business with them. Youre an oil company are you going to enter into a oil contract with anybody in Libya right now? The risks are
just enormous; it doesnt matter who youre dealing with if its a new contract as opposed to an existing one.You play that against an entire economy, it creates a vicious cycle of deterioration. As Libyans come to grapple with this, they get more willing to compromise and to recognize the need for national accord, for coming together to protect the country as a whole. Daesh has also concentrated the minds. Since the Corinthia attack of last January and the takeover of Sirte, in Tripoli and in Misrata weve seen people say, This is a real threat to us; we want to be able to take action against it, to take action against it more effectively. We need international support and we need to be united.Again, the speeches today were all about the need for unity, which is a good thing. Were not seeing people who want to break up the country. There are some Libyans who would benefit from that at a local level if they themselves could control the energy. And so theres been the federalist movements, which at various times has tried to fan separatism. But none of Libyas neighbors want that, and the vast supermajority of Libyans reject that as well, and it has no teeth, it has no energy.QUESTION: Going back to what this gentleman said earlier about what the U.S. couldve done differently at all ever considered possibly not ousting Qadhafi, perhaps working with him? Because since 2011, I mean, its been dismal, and were now in a situation with Syria which Im not sure if you can comment on Syria --MR WINER: I cant comment on Syria. Im not an expert on Syria.QUESTION: So was that ever considered, perhaps working --MR WINER: I wasnt in the Administration at the time the decisions were made about Qadhafi, and I cant address the issue. But I would say generally speaking Im very, very poor at hypothetical situations and trying to imagine alternative futures. Im not a good writer of fiction. Im just not a good writer of fiction. Its just not my metier. And any kind of trying to revisit history and do imagine-ifs and what-ifs for me arent very useful. I dont do it.QUESTION: Well, the President made the comment, so was that perhaps a possibility of what you might have --MR WINER: You could ask him. I dont know.QUESTION: Excuse me, thank you. Fabiola Ortiz. I write for IPS and (inaudible) in the news. So Im coming to understand a little bit more about the (inaudible) Libya. I wonder, are we in your opinion, are we heading towards next generation of Qadhafi, or we cannot, like, talk about the future, but a next future of possible another Qadhafi, or this General Khalifa Hafter yeah. Please, if you could make some comments on this.MR WINER: Yeah. Sure. Yeah. I dont know anyone Ive run in I have met in Libya who thinks it is a good idea to return to one-man rule of Libya. I dont know anyone. I dont know anyone who supports a coup. I
dont know anyone who wants to see democracy and what was fought for in the February 17th revolution replaced by a return to the old regime. People who are very upset by whats happened in 2012, 13, 14, 15, are still not saying, Oh, for the good old days under Qadhafi. Instead, people who long for the good old days say, Well, maybe we should go back to having adopting the constitution of 1951 and having a constitutional monarch and have Libya have some integration through that. Its those are not majority voices, I mean, but within the realm of things you hear, thats one thing. So when people have nostalgia for the good old days, they go back to before Qadhafi to King Idris. They dont go back, No, we need a new Qadhafi.So thats not something the risk for Libya is not so much of a return to a Qadhafi as it is for continued fragmentation and collapse of institutions.QUESTION: And about this new its not a new general, but this General Khalifa Hafter, you could make some comments on him. Because he was close to Qadhafi, right? Or --MR WINER: Hafters background, which you can read online --QUESTION: Yeah, yeah.MR WINER: -- and my knowledge comes from online reading about him and some books about him is --QUESTION: Only?MR WINER: Him?QUESTION: Only? (Laughter.)MR WINER: Yes, essentially. Everything relevant is that he fought he was part of the original revolution against the king, became Qadhafis chief general, was imprisoned in Chad. Qadhafi was didnt treat him well because he lost his battles against Chad. He then moved to northern Virginia; according to press accounts, is said to have worked with the United States Government; according to press accounts, is said then not to have worked for the United States Government; and then came back to Libya for the first time in decades in the course of the revolution; declared a coup in February 2014 and at various times has said that hes free of civilian control currently.Our view is that no individual should be free in security space, whether theyre head of a militia or otherwise free of civilian control. This is has got to be a democracy in which you have elected governments and security is under the elected governments. But beyond that, theres no point in talking about individuals, because these are principles, and the principles here are what will be relevant. I dont know anyone, as I said earlier, who is supporting a coup or would support a coup that is, any foreign government, period, across the board. QUESTION: Can you --QUESTION: No, go ahead.QUESTION: No, you go ahead.QUESTION: No, I dont care. QUESTION: All right. Ill go ahead. Could you expand a little more on what ISIL and Daesh is doing in Libya? You mentioned the central bank operation. How many of them are there? Where are they most active? Its been I guess theyre getting some guidance from the --MR WINER: Yeah, I dont --QUESTION: -- from Syria, from the caliphate? What kind of what
can you tell us about --MR WINER: Sure.QUESTION: -- the extent of this group in Libya proper?MR WINER: I do not feel comfortable at all talking about numbers, because whatever numbers I would give you would be wrong even if I tried to make them completely accurate. To the absolute best of my ability, I dont feel I have a good enough grasp. What I can say is that there appears to be foreign fighters in Libya of two different kinds. There are Libyans who went into the Iraq-Syria territory and came back to Libya, having absorbed Daesh doctrine, Daesh strategy, and Daesh tactics. In addition, there appear to be people who are from Iraq-Syria who are non-Libyans as well as people from other areas in the Maghreb region, such as Tunisia in particular, who have adopted Daesh branding, Daesh ideology, Daesh tactics, Daesh strategy.There are also people have domestic extremist views Ansar al-Sharia being the label that they had adopted in different towns who merged with Daesh or joined Daesh. And as I mentioned, in Derna, after they did that, basically they said to themselves, as near as I can tell, Were Libyans. We dont want to be told what to do by foreigners. Were going to kick them out. And they kicked them out, and they were almost entirely pushed out of Derna, as near as I can tell.So its a complex dynamic in which there are, again, two types of foreign fighters the Libyans who went and came back, and then people from Iraq-Syria. The effort clearly is to capture territory; that is, it is territorial-based, to find a beachhead and then expand the beachhead outward as they can by terrifying and intimidating anybody who might get in their way to fleeing or joining, fleeing or accepting. Thats their basic technique. There are a variety of Libyans who dont like it, including, as mentioned, forces in Misrata, including militia forces who are pressing against them but have not fully taken them on, in part because of a question about correlation of forces; that is, are we strong enough to take them on? There is probably a smaller presence presences elsewhere in Libya in various cities. Im really not the qualified person to talk about that. But there is probably some others. But theres also as mentioned the word I used earlier anti Libyan antibodies to foreign dominance by any foreigners of any type, whether theyve got that brand or some other flag or brand.So its a very complex picture with shifting alliances and shifting allegiances. Ive had some people allege to me that some components of Daesh in Libya are former Qadhafiites who never liked the revolution. Ive had political people say, Oh, its the other guys who are stoking them up to create more problems for us. Sorting out what is true and what is not true in that is a tricky business. MODERATOR: All right, we have time for one more, if anyone has one more question. No? All right, thank you. MR WINER: Thank you.# #
Briefing with Professor Robert Shapiro on the 2016 U.S. general electionMODERATOR: Okay. Hello, everyone. Welcome to the New York Foreign Press Center. Today we have a really fantastic briefer for you about the 2016 general election. I know that you all are anxious to hear from him. Professor Robert Shapiro is the professor and former chair of the Department of Political Science at Columbia University. His research includes partisan polarization, ideological politics in the U.S., as well as topics concerned with public opinion and policymaking. Hes here to talk about the 2016 general election, the election process, and explanation of ethnic demographics and how that affects American elections, and really any other questions that you might have in the run-up to the 2016 general election.We also have some handouts for you. Id like to also say welcome and hello to those of you joining us from Washington. Well take questions both from New York and from Washington. So be patient if youre there in Washington, and lets go ahead and get started. So let me introduce Professor Robert Shapiro. Thank you.MR SHAPIRO: Oh, delighted. Okay, thank you all for coming. What I want to do is two things. One is just to start just so were on the same page or computer screen or whatever you want to call it before I get to the heart of the conversation, which will be about the handouts that Ive given out, I just want to kind of review for you what the election rules are in the United States. And one question that obviously comes up is why does the United States have this very crazy-looking candidate selection process involving primary elections and caucuses, and then also even though those elections are a little bit far away, why is it all starting early and now?The system is basically set up is that the parties nominate their candidates as separate political parties. And it used to be it would be basically party leaders and bosses, as we used to call them and Im oversimplifying here used to basically select candidates in the what they used to what are often referred to as the smoke-filled backrooms. Nowadays, they might be the smokeless backrooms. But that was a process that wasnt very democratic thats democratic with a little D in nature. It wasnt one that brought in the public into the process.To make a long story short, after a lot of party infighting it got very very, very vicious in a lot of ways in the 1960s and 70s. The parties have kind of stabilized with the current system in which there are a series of state primary elections, which are elections in which that were designed to have party people registered. Voters registered for political parties, vote for candidates in primary elections, or to have caucuses, which are not open primary elections, but these are very large meetings and forums where individuals who were registered for the parties get together and talk and debate about candidates, and then they vote at the caucuses for the candidates.
And then these votes that occurred dont automatically lead are not counted up with the candidate with the most votes getting the being nominated, but basically each state party nominates its own delegates to the national election. So what these primary and caucuses ultimately do are select the delegates to the elections. And each state has its own separate rules for selecting delegates. And so theres no way for me to talk about how its done; it just depends on what state, and Ill come back to that later on.The candidate at the national convention who gets the has the most delegates who and the delegates vote at the election the delegates vote and the majority of delegates they go to one candidate, that candidate becomes the nominee. If there is no majority then theres a lot of political wheeling and dealing that used to go on at the conventions. It hasnt gone on in a long time because usually the primaries decide on who the candidates are, but its an open question whether well ever have a fight at the convention in terms of determining who the delegates are.Assuming that both parties delegates select their candidate then that leads to the general election. The general election in the United States is a campaign period that goes on during a campaign period from August through November. And the way the voting rules work in the United States is the votes are counted by states; each state has a certain number of what are called electoral votes; and the candidate who gets the majority of the electoral votes not the majority of the popular vote is the winner. So now weve got when we stop and take questions in discussion I can we can go into more of the details. But thats those are the basic rules. Where are we now? Were in the middle of the long campaign in the primary season.You should all have the handouts in front of you. Now, these handouts are very useful and theyre designed here some of you may know all this already and I apologize for that, but in terms of getting information, I for one think a free press is very important. The more information the press has, the more they can report about, the better for everyone in well, better for everyone in the United States and I hope in your home countries as well. But in terms of getting information about the primaries now, the primary system is complicated because the states have their primaries and caucuses on different days and theres a schedule for it. And you all probably know that everybodys focusing on the Iowa caucuses, which is the first, and then the New Hampshire primary, which is the second, but thats only the beginning in the context of a very long process.Okay. So the first page of this handout is the start of the the document that I want to talk about. Im not going to go over it in detail. Im just going to go over things on
a couple pages of it. But the crucial thing is that this source its an online source called its at thegreenpapers.com. This is the source that is the most in my view well, for me its been the best source to get information about not only the schedule of the primaries but the but information about what the rules are in each state in terms of whos eligible to vote and participate in the caucuses and primary elections. In some states they have whats called a closed primary, in which only voters registered in advance affiliated with a party can vote in their partys primary or caucus. Other states have whats called an open primary or caucus where the where anyone can participate, not just people whove registered in advance. This is and it varies by state. This is not a uniform thing. As each primary and caucus comes up, we need to ask that question.In terms of rules with regard to how the delegates are allocated, the key piece of information you should know about for the moment is that in the Republican primary, every primary through March and caucus through March 14th is required to allocate its delegates in some proportional way. That is, the delegates correspond in some fashion to or is related to the proportion of votes that a candidate gets. Beginning March 15th, the party the states are allowed to have primaries and caucuses in which the rules are winner take all. Okay. This is very important because it has a way of in a proportional system it has a way of keeping more candidates in the race rather than letting one candidate kind of sweep the field and get all the delegates for individual states. And its designed to kind of slow down the process to enable the ostensibly better candidates who have more who have in the end more support to stay in the race. Okay, so on the second page of the handout, the key part of the schedule that you need to know about is whats going on first. And the if you look on page 2, its Iowa and New Hampshire, and then jump ahead a little bit, theres the Nevada nonbinding caucuses. And then the other big election is South Carolina, both for the Democrats and for the Republicans. And its important in the sense that a lot of talk has been about how some of the, for lack of a better word, fringe-type candidates seem to be doing better in Iowa and New Hampshire. And some people argue that the fair comparison of in terms of candidates strength is what happens in South Carolina. Also if you go if you just flip to page 3, everybodys looking ahead to March 15th in Florida. The important date is March 1st, on page 2, which is a day on which many states have their primaries. Thats often been referred to as a Super Tuesday kind of date. And so those are the basics here.Whats nice about this greenpapers.com website is that you