thegoodfellas/blogset-br huggingface dataset:
itself provide a fourth supportive factor. After all, rising business confidence and activity typically boosts demand for financial services. In Europe, by contrast, economic gloom and intractable political splits have undermined confidence.Anything which can move to the US in the coming years will move the US is ultimately going to be a huge beneficiary, Gary Cohn, Goldman Sachs president, said this week. As far as [financial and business] investment in Europe is concerned, that is going to be on hold.Of course, some European observers will dismiss this as a self-interested sales pitch. If Trumpian policies spark US social unrest or geopolitical uncertainty, or if Mr Trump unleashes a debt binge that goes bust, that will not create stability.But, while those risks are real, the crucial point now is this: whatever Europeans think of Mr Trump, they need to recognise that animal spirits are rising in New York, and this is likely to boost finance and the standing of Wall Street. If London wants to fight back, the British authorities need to find a way to unleash some animal spirits of their own. Bickering about Brexit is not a good place to start.Gillian TettFonte: FT
Will Donald Trump benefit the enraged white working class that brought him into the White House? To answer this, one must examine his plans and the desires of congressional Republicans. One must also consider how these plans might affect the world economy. The conclusion is straightforward: some people will indeed benefit but the white working class will not be among them. Republicans have long stoked rage they do not assuage. Mr Trump has taken this approach in new directions.Huge, permanent and regressive tax cuts seem the one certainty. It is something on which Mr Trump and congressional Republicans agree. The revised Trump plan would reduce the top individual income tax rate to 33 per cent and the corporate tax rate to 15 per cent. It would also eliminate the estate tax. The highest-income taxpayers 0.1 per cent of the population, those with incomes over $3.7m in 2016 dollars would receive an average cut of more than 14 per cent of after-tax income. The poorest fifths taxes would fall by an average of 0.8 per cent of taxed income. To those who hath, it shall be given.Mr Trump (much less so the congressional Republicans) plans to increase infrastructure spending. This is desirable, though it would have made even more sense if Republicans had supported such a programme in the midst of the Great Recession. But as noted by Lawrence Summers, former US Treasury secretary, the Trump plan relies mainly on private investment. Experience elsewhere suggests this often leads to exploitation of taxpayers and a failure to put into effect public investments that deliver high social benefits but have limited commercial returns.The net effect of these plans would be a large rise in fiscal deficits. Calculations by the Tax Policy Center at the Brookings think-tank suggest that by 2020 the deficit would increase by 3 per cent of gross domestic product. With current forecasts as the baseline and ignoring any additional spending, this would mean a deficit of around 5.5 per cent of GDP in 2020. Cumulatively, the increase in federal debt by 2026 might be 25 per cent of GDP.Congressional Republicans such as Paul Ryan would surely demand matching cuts in spending. Annual federal outlays are close to 20 per cent of GDP. Spending on health, income support, social security, defence and net interest absorbed 88 per cent of this in 2015. Elimination of spending on all else (a catastrophic mistake) would merely halve the prospective deficit. In sum, the plans logic leads towards either big increases in federal debt relative to GDP or sharp cuts in spending on programmes on which Mr Trumps supporters depend.The envisaged rise in US fiscal deficits would however be expansionary, even though the concentration of the cuts on the wealthiest would limit this effect. Still, a jump in US fiscal deficits would accelerate rises in US short-term interest rates. Mr Trump could hardly complain since he has attacked the Federal Reserves low rates. Yet, as Desmond Lachman of the American Enterprise Institute notes, the world economy is fragile. A swift rise in US interest rates might destabilise
it.Furthermore, the combination of fiscal loosening with monetary tightening would mean a stronger dollar and a rising current account deficit in the medium term. The US would re-emerge as the global buyer of last resort, so helping the worlds structural mercantilists: China, Germany and Japan. A strong dollar and rising external deficits would, as in the early 1980s, increase protectionist pressures Ronald Reagans administration was quite protectionist in its first term. The decision to launch the Uruguay round of multilateral trade negotiations to liberalise world trade was then the response.This time, however, a strong dollar would reinforce the bias towards protectionism of the Trump administration. But protection against imports would raise the currencys value further, shifting the adjustment on to unprotected sectors above all, on to competitive exporters. In all, a strong dollar must weaken the manufacturing Mr Trump seeks to help.A likely response would be to cajole the Fed into slowing monetary tightening. Janet Yellens term as Fed chair expires in 2018. Her successor could be told that the 4 per cent growth mentioned by Mr Trump has to be attained. The last time such growth was achieved over a five-year period was before the crash of 2000 an ominous warning. If the Fed tried to achieve this goal, it might trigger inflation, financial instability or, more likely, both. In all this there seem to be few, if any, gains for Mr Trumps working-class supporters.The president-elect has also promised to eliminate Obamacare and most environmental and financial regulations. It is hard to believe any of this would succour the prospects of the working class. They are more likely to suffer from even worse health cover, a dirtier environment, more predatory behaviour by financial institutions and, at worst, even another financial crisis. Protectionism, too, will fail to help most of his supporters. Many depend on cheap imported goods. Many would be badly hurt by the dire results of a tit-for-tat global trade war. Meanwhile, rapidly rising productivity would still ensure a steady fall in the share of manufacturing in US employment, despite protection.Mr Trump promises a burst of infrastructure spending, regressive tax cuts, protectionism, cuts in federal spending and radical deregulation. A big rise in infrastructure spending would indeed help construction workers. But little else in these plans would help the working class. Overall, his plans might indeed generate a brief economic surge. But the longer-term consequences are likely to be grim, not least for his angry, but fooled, supporters. Next time, they might be even angrier. Where that might lead is terrifying.Martin WolfFonte: FT
for Osram, which was spun off from Siemens in 2013. Go Scale has also held talks with Osram in the past few weeks, according to people close to the discussions.Fonte: FT
erros implicam em reducao no valor dobeneficio, ja que para receber aposentadoria integral seria necessariotrabalhar 49 anos. O financiamento daaposentadoria rural ainda nao esta definido, mas e de fundamental importanciaque ela seja mantida.Felizmente, ha boas noticias em relacao a inflacao, quecontinua caindo, e o Banco Central parece ter finalmente reconhecido que estaqueda permite uma reducao da taxa de juros, que devera contribuir com o esforcode evitar que a nossa longa recessao se transforme em depressao, o que noslevaria a sentir saudades do annushorribilis. Fonte: Jornal "O Sao Paulo", edicao 3134, 18 a 24 de janeirode 2017.
seminar and editor-in-chief of the new journal also stepped back from the CSI. Mr Kent, a linguist and expert in Russian culture, said it was inconceivable that the Russian government was in any way involved.Cambridge is a wonderful place of conspiracy theories but the idea that there is a Machiavellian plot here is ridiculous, he said. The idea any of us would be involved in anything that smacks of Russian influence . . . its real Reds under the bed stuff the whole thing is ludicrous.Mr Kent is responsible for building the links between the seminar and the organisation at the centre of the controversy, Veruscript. It was established by a friend of Mr Kents from Cambridge, Gleb Cheglakov, a Russian physicist.According to Mr Kent, the new journal will cost roughly 50,000 a year to run and, although start-up funding is being supplied by Veruscript, ultimately it will draw on other sources of finance, to ensure its independence.Mr Kent said he did not know where Veruscripts money came from.Corporate records show Veruscript is run by a company called AGC Partners, based in London.Mr Cheglakov told the FT that the company was set up by himself and his wife using their own money. The company, which boasts a slick website and employs about a dozen people, claims it will shake up the academic publishing business by paying for peer reviews of its articles by approved academics.AGC Partners corporate records show it was established in 2012. Mr Cheglakov said he was its cofounder although it is legally fully owned by Nazik Ibraimova, his Kygryz wife. Ms Ibraimova could not be reached for comment. The FT attempted to reach the company a number of times by phone and email.Corporate records show Ms Ibraimova initially funded the company with a series of 50,000 loans made in six-monthly increments. In the past year, the company has significantly expanded. Its accounts show a loss of 410,000 in 2015, the last year for which figures have been filed.As we are in start-up mode, all journals are currently operating at a loss with Veruscript picking up the costs, Mr Cheglakov said in a statement. The business is looking to significantly expand, he added. [We] will publish journals from across the research spectrum: sciences, humanities and social sciences . . . We are a truly community-based publisher. [The] Journal of Intelligence and Terrorism Studies is our first journal to launch but we are also in the process of launching journals in areas as diverse as Functional Nanomaterials, Quantum Matter and Energy Storage.Mr Cheglakov did not specifically address the question of any connection between the company and the Russian government.He stressed that all of the journals backed by Veruscript would be completely editorially independent of the organisation. We aim to be a force of good within the publishing industry, he said.Fonte: FT
The only reliable guide to the dollars value in the wake of Donald Trumps electoral victory is the wisdom of legendary investor Bernard Baruch about the stock market: it will fluctuate. If the prospects for the US economy have never been so uncertain, then the prospects for the dollar similarly have never been so uncertain.Still, we can attempt to make sense of this scenario from three angles. A first is from the vantage point of US fiscal and monetary policies. One thing we know is that a more expansionary fiscal policy is coming. It may take the form of tax cuts for the wealthy and tax credits for investors; or it may be a more balanced programme, including a significant rise in infrastructure spending.Either way, growth and inflation are likely to accelerate, and the US Federal Reserve will respond by raising interest rates sooner and faster. We know from the Reagan era that a mix of loose fiscal and tight monetary policies makes for a strong dollar. No surprise, then, that investors are bidding up the greenback.But we also know that doubts about debt sustainability can lead those investors to think twice. Large, unfunded tax cuts will heighten their doubts. Questions about fiscal sustainability will be particularly troubling to investors in US Treasury bonds, given Mr Trumps offhand comments about renegotiating the debt.Thus the macroeconomic policy mix should be dollar supportive in the short run but dollar subversive in the longer term. If markets are myopic, then the dollar will continue to strengthen for the moment. But if investors look forward, that moment will be relatively brief. Anyone care to bet on its duration?A second perspective flows from the likelihood that the new administration will adopt protectionist policies. Taxing and otherwise discouraging imports will strengthen the US trade accounts, and a smaller trade deficit will be dollar positive. The increased price of imports will translate into modestly higher inflation, again encouraging the Fed to raise interest rates sooner and enhancing the appeal of dollar-denominated assets.But those same trade policies run the risk of provoking foreign retaliation, with precisely the opposite effect. New tariffs will also reduce the efficiency of US production by disrupting global supply chains. If the result is slower growth, investing in the US and the dollar will be less attractive. Hence the new administrations trade policies are likely to be dollar positive in the short run and dollar negative in the longer term. A third perspective is the dollars haven status. The greenback benefits from uncertainty. Even when the US is the source of the problem, its currency benefits. The US Treasury market is the most liquid financial market in the world, and there is nothing investors value more in a crisis than liquidity. Thus some will argue that heightened uncertainty from Mr Trumps accession to power will benefit the dollar.This view fails to appreciate the deeper roots of haven status. These go beyond deep and liquid markets. The policies of the central bank issuing the currency and the government standing behind it must also be sound and stable.
A currency is regarded as a haven only if the country issuing it is geopolitically secure. It must have a strong military but it also must have strong alliances. The pound was the haven currency before the dollar because Britannia ruled the waves and because Britain successfully constructed a web of geopolitical alliances.So whether Mr Trump adopts policies that heighten trade tension with China, scales back US foreign commitments and turns his back on Nato will tell the tale. The fate of the dollar, and potentially much more, will turn on the answer. Barry Eichengreen is professor at the University of California, Berkeley, and the author of Exorbitant Privilege Fonte: FT
from liberalising trade, he said. If the TPP does not come into effect it will mean there will be higher barriers to trade, which of course means you have a more subdued trading environment. Fonte: FT
Candidatura unica pra diretor, chefe de depto e coordenador de curso e um desservico a democracia puquiana. A democracia precisa do embate de ideias e propostas, seguida do acatamento do resultado e trabalho conjunto entre os candidatos depois das eleicoes. Nada disto e possivel com candidatura unica tao ao gosto de regimes politicos inimigos da liberdade... Se beber,☞ nao dirija.☠Se for dirigir ☞, nao beba ☠ O Natal esta chegando...Ouvi dizer que o Natal perdeu seu significado...Que deu lugar ao consumismo,Arvores de Natale Papai NoelMas eu prefiro lembrar que neste Natal,Por conta dos empregos temporarios,Muitas pessoas puderam resgatar um pouco de sua dignidade.E que por conta do dinheirinho extra que receberaoMuitos pais e maes de familia poderaoOferecer uma mesa mais farta aos seus filhosPrefiro lembrar quepor conta das Campanhas de Solidariedade feitas nesta epocaalgumas criancas ganharao, sim, algum brinquedo.E que voce...Voce podera dar Aquele Abraco nas pessoas que voce gostaMas que por falta de motivo pra abracarFicou contido ate agora...E, talvez, neste momento voce perceba que,Bem ou mal,No Natal, o Amor esta em toda parte!Mas, se ainda assim, voce nao quiser celebrar nesta dataNao tem problema:Quero te convidar a viver com o Espirito do NatalTodos os teus dias!Augusto BrancoEspirito de NatalDeixa eu ver se o espirito do Natal ja esta na sua casa.Nao, nao quero ver a arvore iluminada na sala nemquero saber quanto voce ja gastou em presentes,quero sim, sentir no ambiente a mensagem viva do aniversariante desse Dezembro magico.Toda a familia esta unida?O perdao ja eliminou aquelas desavencas que ocorrem no calor das nossas vidas? Nao quero ver a sua despensa cheia, quero saber se voce conseguiu doar alguma coisa do que lhe sobra, para quem tem tao pouco, as vezes nada.Nao exiba os presentes que voce ja comprou, mesmo com sacrificio. Quero ver ai dentro de voce a preocupacao com aqueles que esperam tao pouco, uma visita, um telefonema, uma carta, um email...Quero ver o espirito do Natal entre pais que descobrem tempo para os filhos,em amigos que se reencontram e podem parar para conversar, no respeito do celular desligado no teatro,na gentileza de quem oferece o banco para o mais idoso, na paciencia com os doentes,na mao que apoia o deficiente visual na travessia das ruas, no ombro amigo que se oferece para quem anda meio triste, perdido. Quero ver o espirito de Natal invadindo as ruas, respeitando os animais, a natureza que implora por cuidados tao simples, como nao jogar o papel no chao, nem o lixo nos rios. Nao quero ver o Natal nas vitrines enfeitadas, no convite ao consumo, mas no enfeite que a bondade faz no rosto das pessoas generosas. Por fim, mostre-me que o espirito do Natal entrou definitivamente na sua vida, atraves do abraco fraterno, da oracao sentida, do prazer de andar sem drogas e sem bebidas, do riso franco, do desejo sincero de ser felize de tao feliz, nao resistir ao desejo de fazer outras pessoas, tambem felizes.Deixe o Natal invadir a sua alma, entre os perfumes da cozinha que vai se encher de comidas deliciosas, no cheiro da roupa nova
que todos vao exibir, abrace-se a sua familia e facam alguns minutos de silencio, que sera como uma oracao do coracao, que vai subir aos ceus, e retornar com um presente eterno, duradouro:o suave perfume do Senhor, perfume de paz,amor, harmonia e a eterna esperanca de que um dia, todos os dias serao como os dias de Natal ! Paulo Roberto GaefkeO Rei da HistoriaConta a historia que o Rei da gloria nao tinha onde nascer.E nao foi em berco de ouro, Cercado de tesouros.Que ele veio ao mundo.Foi com humildade, com toda simplicidade.A nos se deu essa grande verdade:Nao importa onde voce nasce, ou que voce possui.O mais importante e o que voce e.Guarda seu coracao, tudo o que provem dele vai determinar sua vida.Natal nao e tradicao, nem troca de presentes.E Deus vindo em forma de homem para resgatar o proprio homem.E o amor transformando-se em gente, para que o mundo seja diferente.Ama-te a ti mesmo, ao que esta ao teu lado e ao que esta distante,o pobre, o necessitado, os sem esperanca e voce vai ter entendido averdadeira mensagem do Natal.Leticia ThompsonMinha arvore de NatalQui-sera,Senhor,neste Natal,armar umaarvore no meucoracao e nelapendurar, em vezde presentes, osnomes de todos osamigos. Os amigos delonge e de perto. Osantigos e os recentes, osque vejo todos os dias e osque raramente encontro. Os semprelembrados e os que, as vezes, ficamesquecidos. Os constantes e os intermitentes,os das horas dificeis e os das horas alegres.Os que, sem querer, eu magoei ou, sem quererme magoaram. Aqueles a quem conhecoprofundamente e aqueles que me sao conhecidasso as aparencias. Os que pouco me devem eaqueles a quem devo muito. Meus amigos jovens, meusamigos velhinhos. Meus amigos homens feitos e ascriancas, minhas amiguinhas. Meus amigos humildes emeus amigos importantes. Os nomes de todos que japassaram por minha vida. Os que me estimam e admiramsem eu saber e, os que amo e estimo sem lhes dar a entender.Quisera, Senhor, neste Natal armar uma arvore de raizesmuito profundas para que seus nomes nunca mais sejamarrancados de minha vida. Uma arvore de ramos muito extensospara que os novos nomes,vindos de todas as partes,venham juntar-se aos jaexistentes. Uma arvore desombra muito agradavelpara que nossaamizade seja um momento de repouso no meio das lutas da vida.A Estrela CadenteLeticia ThompsonSenhor, Permita que eu veja sempre A Estrela Cadente, Me mostrando o caminho a seguir.Sei que nao trago comigo, Nem ouro, nem incenso e nem mirra, Nada tenho, senao o meu ser,Mas sei tambem, Que nada pedes alem disso.Sou eu o ouro, O incenso e a mirra, Seguindo a Estrela diferente E especial,Buscando tocar, Nem que seja por um segundo, O Rei do Natal.Nada te dou, que ja nao tenhas, Mas recebo de Ti, Tudo o que preciso!...Es Tu o Menino que procuro E a propria Estrela que me guia, Com luz e brilho;Eu vim para Te adorar E viestes para me iluminar.
" Ah, o Amor" da autoria de Mario QuintanaPara meus amigos que estao... SOLTEIROS:O amor e como uma borboleta. Por mais que tente pega-la, ela fugira. Mas quando menos esperar, ela esta ali do seu lado. O amor pode te fazer feliz, mas as vezes tambem pode te ferir. Mas o amor sera especial apenas quando voce tiver o objetivo de se dar somente a um alguem que seja realmente valioso. Por isso, aproveite o tempo livre para escolher.Para meus amigos... NAO SOLTEIROS:Amor nao e se envolver com a pessoa perfeita", aquela dos nossos sonhos. Nao existem principes nem princesas. Encare a outra pessoa de forma sincera e real, exaltando suas qualidades, mas sabendo tambem de seus defeitos. O amor so e lindo, quando encontramos alguem que nos transforme no melhor que podemos ser.Para meus amigos que gostam de... PAQUERAR:Nunca diga "te amo" senao te interessa. Nunca fale sobre sentimentos se estes nao existem. Nunca toque numa vida, se nao pretende romper um coracao. Nunca olhe nos olhos de alguem, se nao quiser ve-lo derramar em lagrimas por causa de ti. A coisa mais cruel que alguem pode fazer e permitir que alguem se apaixone por voce, quando voce nao pretende fazer o mesmo...Para meus amigos... CASADOS:O amor nao te faz dizer "a culpa e", mas te faz dizer "me perdoe". Compreender o outro, tentar sentir a diferenca, se colocar no seu lugar. Diz o ditado que um casal feliz e aquele feito de dois bons perdoadores. A verdadeira medida de compatibilidade nao sao os anos que passaram juntos, mas sim o quanto nesses anos, voces foram bons um para o outro.Para meus amigos que tem um... CORACAO PARTIDO: Um coracao assim dura o tempo que voce deseje que ele dure, e ele lastimara o tempo que voce permitir. Um coracao partido sente saudades, imagina como seria bom, mas nao permita que ele chore para sempre. Permita-se rir e conhecer outros coracoes. Aprenda a viver, aprenda a amar as pessoas com solidariedade, aprenda a fazer coisas boas, aprenda a ajudar a propria vida. A dor de um coracao partido e inevitavel, mas o sofrimento e opcional. E lembre-se: E melhor ver alguem que voce ama feliz com outra pessoa, do que ve-la infeliz ao seu lado.Para meus amigos que sao... INOCENTES: Ela (e) se apaixonou por ti, e voce nao teve culpa, e verdade. Mas pense que poderia ter acontecido com voce. Seja sincero, mas nao seja duro; nao alimente esperancas, mas nao seja critico; voce nao precisa ser namorado (a), mas pode descobrir que ela (e) e uma otima pessoa, e pode vir a se tornar uma (um) grande amiga (o).Para meus amigos que tem... MEDO DE TERMINAR: As vezes e duro terminar com alguem, e isso doi em voce. Mas doi muito mais quando alguem rompe contigo, nao e verdade?Mas o amor tambem doi muito quando ele nao sabe o que voce sente. Nao engane tal pessoa, nao seja grosso (a) e rude esperando que ela (e) adivinhe o que voce quer. Nao a (o) force terminar contigo, pois a
melhor forma de ser respeitado e respeitar. E a melhor forma de respeita-la (o) e sendo verdadeiro (a) e sincero (a). Lembre-se...O tempo passa e nao volta atras; nao adianta dar murro em ponta de faca...E para terminar..."Eterno, e tudo aquilo que dura uma fracao de segundo, mas com tamanha intensidade, que se petrifica, e nenhuma forca jamais o resgatara...