I've looked at 14,000,605 scenarios and Max wins every time
Tags: formula1, analytics, python, javascript
Published: 2022-09-07 14:48:50

Before the race, every driver expected Max to win quite comfortably. This isn’t without a reason, dominant performances at Hungary and Spa set this expectation.

Max had car issues during Free practice sessions which didn’t help RBR to maximize their car setup and [Mercedes looked quick taking P1,P2 in FP1.](https://www.reddit.com/r/TracingInsights/comments/x6ixgv/dutchgp_drivers_results_across_sessions_go/)

Let’s take a look at the race and how it transpired:


![Image description](https://dev-to-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/articles/d078wrst4kvyhvtz9gfw.png)
Max vs Lewis on Mediums:

    

> Max put on mediums after his first pit stop on lap 18, meanwhile Lewis started on mediums and switched to mediums for his 3rd stint on lap 48. And the above data include both Lewis’ stints.
>     From the above chart, it looks like Lewis was pushing on his mediums for first 5 laps and then the tires slowly degrade and after around 20 laps they start to impact the lap times.
>     [Join r/TracingInsights community](https://www.reddit.com/r/TracingInsights/)
>     On the other hand, Max was conserving his tyres. Towards the end of the stint he was maintaining almost constant lap times showing essentially with zero tyre degradation.
>     For the sake of simplicity, let’s assume both cars are on equal race pace on mediums.


![Image description](https://dev-to-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/articles/4bceuwf2jcqbufyewmgr.png)

Max vs Lewis on Hards:

    

> After his first stint on mediums Lewis switched to Hards on Lap 29 and was putting in quali laps every lap.
>     The peak on Lewis lap times is when he encountered traffic and had to overtake Checo. Just when he made the move stick, Seb entered from the pitstop on to the track just ahead of Lewis.
>     During the live broadcast, Crofty mentioned Lewis lost about 3 seconds due to this.
>     In short, it looks like Max was about 0.3 s faster than Lewis on hards.
>     Every driver is pushing on the hards either to get them to optimal temperature window or because they don’t need to worry about tyre degradation as much.
>     Strategy also played a key role in drivers having better performance for hards. Other than Lando, Fernando and Goatifi every drivers stint on hard compound lasted less than 25 laps.


![Image description](https://dev-to-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/articles/3ygfeoqie6i0ul1vbgtn.jpg)
TimeLine:

> On Lap 44, the gap between Lewis and Max was at 16.4s favoring Max and he was yet to pit.
> On Lap 46, we witnessed Yuki’s car trouble and upon investigation FIA concluded it was a diff issue
> Both Lewis and Max made their pitstops under vsc conditions on Lap 48. Lewis was on the radio thanking the crew “Let’s go guys! Good pitstop”.
> On Lap 49, the gap was ~19s, with Max on hards and Lewis with mediums.
    Math:

>Firstly, to account for car difference and other factors, everything is converted into Lewis laptimes.
>Fuel corrected average Lap time for Lewis on mediums first stint is 74.447 s
>Fuel corrected average Lap time for Lewis on hards stint is 74.290 s. Take away 3 seconds lost in traffic the average comes down to 74.113 s
>Max is ~0.3s faster and we still have 23 laps to finish the race, so let’s take away 0.3s from Lewis hards stint, which gives us 73.813
>In short, Lewis expected mediums laptime is 74.447 s vs Max expected hards laptime of 73.813.
>The difference is 0.634 s in favor of Max.
>At the end of 23 remaining laps, Max would’ve been 14.582 s ahead, without even accounting for the existing gap of 19s.
>The hards were the best performing compound this race, and also Max has the superior top speed on the straights.
>Feel free to use these calculations for any other simulations.

🤌🤌🤌 Next race is the Italian Grand Prix at Monza 🤌🤌🤌
{% embed https://twitter.com/TracingInsights/status/1567445671309082626 %}

Read the math behind calculating Tyre Degradation here:
{% embed https://tracinginsights.substack.com/p/ferrari-disaster-class-is-hard-compound?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=web %}

Meme of the race:


![Image description](https://dev-to-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/articles/xc8xaxsoaoq6wsup36rg.jpeg)

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