Technology Adoption Lifecycle: The Chasm
Tags: web3, blockchain
Published: 2023-02-07 05:36:57

The Technology Adoption Lifecycle is a widely recognized concept that sheds light on the journey of a new technology from its introduction to widespread adoption. From early adopters to laggards, the model describes the stages of acceptance and usage of technology by individuals and organizations. Understanding the lifecycle is crucial for businesses and organizations looking to adopt new technologies, as it provides valuable insights into the behavior of potential customers and the market as a whole. In this article, let's explore the stages of this lifecycle and then lets talk about a few projects currently trying to breach "The Chasm" that I find interesting.

## First, Let's Discuss the Model

![Image of Tech Adoption life cycle](https://dev-to-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/articles/1ybsw549j4dfz1g2rnci.jpg)

As probably noticed above, the adoption lifecycle has a bell curve. The divisions are approximately equivalent to where standard deviations would fall. Based on demographic and psychological characteristics, customers fall into one of the five adopter groups:

- Innovators (2.5% of the total population)
- Early Adopters (13.5% of the total population)
- Early Majority (34% of the total population)
- Late Majority (34% of the total population)
- Laggards (16% of the total population)

Statistically speaking, I can say most of us land somewhere between Pragmatists and Conservatives for most tech that comes mainstream. We all have the occasional "I was early" (Visionaries) story in our lives. For example, maybe you joined a social media site like Facebook or Myspace during the very early stages or you had an electric car before Tesla became well known. All examples like these turn out to be fun stories to share because you were there before "The chasm" happened which I will explain later in the article. 

## Let's Dive deeper Into the Adopter Groups

#### Innovators - _The Tech Enthusiasts_
The Innovators are the first adopter group in the technology adoption lifecycle. They are individuals or organizations who are the first to adopt new technology. They are willing to take risks and embrace new and untested technology. They are often early adopters of new products and services, and are motivated by factors such as prestige, being on the cutting edge, or solving a specific problem. They are willing to pay a premium price for new technology and can tolerate early versions of products with bugs or shortcomings. They are also willing to provide feedback to the manufacturer, which can help to improve the technology for the benefit of later adopters.

#### Early Adopters - _The Visionaries_
Early Adopters are the second adopter group in the technology adoption lifecycle. Unlike the Innovators, they are not the first to adopt new technology and are more cautious in their adoption decisions. Early Adopters are opinion leaders and are respected within their social and professional circles. They are often early adopters of new products and services, and are motivated by factors such as the desire to be on the cutting edge, to improve their personal or professional life, or to solve a specific problem. They are often willing to pay a premium price for new technology, but are less tolerant of bugs and shortcomings compared to Innovators.

#### Early Majority - _Pragmatists_
The Early Majority is the third adopter group in the technology adoption lifecycle. Unlike the Innovators and Early Adopters, the Early Majority is more cautious in their adoption decisions and waits for the technology to mature and for others to validate it before adopting. The Early Majority are often influenced by the experiences and opinions of the Early Adopters, and they play a key role in the diffusion of new technology by providing validation and credibility to the technology. They also tend to be more cost-conscious than the Early Adopters, and they are likely to adopt a technology only after its price has come down and its functionality and reliability have improved. Their adoption helps to establish the technology as a mainstream solution and encourages the Late Majority to adopt. They help to build critical mass and drive the widespread adoption of new technology.

#### Late Majority - _Conservatives_
The Late Majority is the fourth adopter group in the technology adoption lifecycle. Unlike the Innovators, Early Adopters, and Early Majority, the Late Majority is typically more skeptical and cautious in their adoption decisions, and they tend to wait until a technology has become established and proven before they adopt. The Late Majority are often influenced by the experiences and opinions of the Early Majority, and they adopt new technology only after it has been widely adopted and its benefits and drawbacks are well understood. They are motivated by the desire to avoid being left behind but also to minimize risk and uncertainty. The Late Majority help to solidify the position of a technology in the market and provide the stability necessary for the technology to continue to grow and evolve.

#### Laggards - _Skeptics_
The Laggards are the final adopter group in the technology adoption lifecycle. Unlike the other adopter groups, the Laggards are typically the last to adopt new technology and are often skeptical of change. They are motivated by the desire to maintain the status quo and to avoid the risk and uncertainty associated with new technology. The Laggards tend to be resistant to change and may not see the need to adopt new technology. They are often influenced by their past experiences and may have a strong attachment to traditional ways of doing things. They are also more likely to be older and may not have the skills or resources necessary to adopt new technology. The Laggards play a limited role in the technology adoption lifecycle as they tend to adopt new technology only after it has become established and its benefits are widely understood. However, their adoption can provide a sense of validation and help to further establish the technology in the market.

Now that each of the adoption groups have been evaluated. Lets talk about the most fascinating part, _the Chasm_.

## The "Chasm"
The "chasm" is a term used to describe a gap in the technology adoption lifecycle that occurs between the Early Adopters and the Early Majority. It mostly refers to the difficult challenge of getting new technology to cross over from the early adopting, tech-savvy market segment to the more mainstream, conservative market segment.

Studies have shown that only a small fraction of new technology products and services are able to successfully cross the chasm and achieve widespread adoption. This can be due to a number of factors such as insufficient market demand, inadequate marketing and distribution, poor product quality, and intense competition from established players.

In order to successfully cross the chasm, technology projects must be able to effectively address the needs and expectations of both the Early Adopters and the Early Majority. This often requires making changes to the technology, its marketing and positioning, and its sales and distribution channels to better appeal to the Early Majority.

Overall, while there is no set number of technology projects that successfully cross the chasm, it is believed that less than a fraction of a single percent are able to achieve widespread adoption. 


## Here Are Some Popular Examples Currently Testing The Chasm

- **Virtual and Augmented Reality:** Virtual and Augmented Reality (VR/AR) technologies have been around for several years, but they are still in the process of trying to cross the chasm and achieve widespread adoption.
- **Blockchain Technology:** Blockchain technology has the potential to disrupt many industries, but it is still in the early stages of adoption and is facing challenges in trying to cross the chasm and reach widespread adoption.
- **Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML):** AI and ML are being adopted in a number of industries, including finance, healthcare, and retail, but their widespread adoption across many industries is still in the early stages.

## My Personal Favorite Project that Will Test the Chasm in the Near Future

Let's talk about [Protocol: Gemini](https://www.protocolgemini.com/#), probably the most ambitious Web3/AR/MR/XR project to date. If you haven't heard of it yet, take a few minutes and go down the rabbit hole by clicking the link above. From their website here is the description of the project:

> Protocol: Gemini is a utility-based app that utilizes current GPS data, allowing a dynamic and unique user curated 3-Dimensional experience.

> With our unique rewards based contribution model, users of the app will not only be able to create something awesome, but get paid to do so using our minted ERC-20 utility token called:

> GEMz = Geo-Encrypted-Mappoints - (on the Z axis)

> We are re-defining the term "Pay-to-Play"; by paying YOU to help build the network/community. By creating a usable platform for people to get info that is USEFUL and EFFECTIVE as well as voted on by a true democratic model (our users tell us what’s real or cool) we will be providing a unique system for interacting. That’s not where the utility of the app is going to end though...

Basically, at a high level, you can tie NFTs to GPS coordinates. Others have given uses like PokémonGo or NFT treasure hunts or even possibly leaving a passkey to a door as an NFT instead of hiding a spare key. 

I'll end the article with this, a screen cap from a recent Q/A session they hosted:
![The future](https://dev-to-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/articles/eq4yz33dvkp5bunnilti.jpg)