FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022, who will win depending on previous matches ⚽️
Tags: qatar, datascience, python, soccer
Published: 2022-12-03 14:25:02

FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 is about to start so let's play a game.
I worked on historical data for all previous matches for each team in the world cup to predict passing teams from group stages to the final and also third place winner.
Rules that we'll follow:

- Looking at previous matches between the two teams and adding points or winner team depending on the win, loss, or draw percentage.
- If both teams haven't played before we will look at each team's matches against the country teams of the other team for example Senegal vs Qatar, we'll look at Qatar matches against African teams and Senegal matches against Asian teams.
- If you don't find any matches like USA, we will look at [FIFA Rank] (https://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/men?dateId=id13792)

Let's get started
![] (https://library.sportingnews.com/styles/twitter_card_120x120/s3/2022-03/world-cup-trophy-03312022-ftr-getty.jpg?itok=rChV17SB)

First, we will look at Countries how played together before Qatar 2022
To see the analysis results in the detail you can open [this notebook](https://www.kaggle.com/code/ahmedtarek26/qatar2022-football-world-cup/notebook)

[Countries who haven't played before](https://www.kaggle.com/code/ahmedtarek26/qatar2022-football-world-cup/notebook#Group-A-:)
To predict who will win these matches we can predict the win percentage for the national team against other national teams in the same continent for the rival, for example, Qatar vs Netherlands, we will calculate the win percentage for Qatar against European teams and Netherlands Win percentages against Asian teams

- Group A :
Qatar vs Netherlands
Qatar vs Senegal
Netherland vs Senegal
- Group B :
Wales vs USA
Iran vs USA
England vs USA
Iran vs England
- Group F :
Croatia vs Canada
- Group G :
Switzerland vs Cameroon

### Group Stages Rank
After analysis and collecting, points here is the [group stage rank](https://www.kaggle.com/code/ahmedtarek26/qatar2022-football-world-cup/notebook#Group-Stages-Rank)
### Round 16
Round 16 teams' previous matches are in the notebook
Netherlands vs USA and England vs Senegal haven't played together before

Netherlands vs USA 
Look at [FIFA ranking](https://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/men?dateId=id13792)

- Netherlands ranking is 8
- USA ranking is 16

So Netherlands have more chance to win

England vs Senegal

Senegal's win avg against European teams is 50.0
England's win avg against African teams is 47.916675

So Senegal has a better win percentage

### Quarter-final
Quarter-final predicted teams and their percentages [here](https://www.kaggle.com/code/ahmedtarek26/qatar2022-football-world-cup#Quarter-final)
### Semi final
Semi-final predicted teams and their percentages [here](https://www.kaggle.com/code/ahmedtarek26/qatar2022-football-world-cup#Quarter-final)

Senegal and Germany haven't played before
Germany played against these African teams:

- Tunisia
- Morocco
- Cameroon
- Ghana

Germany wins avg against African teams is 68.75
Senegal wins avg against European teams is 50.0

### Third place
Third-place predicted teams and their percentages [here](https://www.kaggle.com/code/ahmedtarek26/qatar2022-football-world-cup?scriptVersionId=111496894&cellId=128)

Brazil played just one match against Senegal and the result was drawing

Brazil's history against African teams

Brazil played against these African teams:

- Tunisia
- Morocco
- Cameroon
- Ghana

Brazil's wins percentage against African teams: 95.833325

Senegal's history against south American teams

Senegal played against these south American teams:

- Ecuador
- Mexico
- Uruguay

Senegal's wins percentage against African teams: 33.33333333333333

**World cup Third place is Brazil 🥉**

### Winner

Final predicted teams and their percentages [here](https://www.kaggle.com/code/ahmedtarek26/qatar2022-football-world-cup#Final)

**World cup Second place is Netherlands 🥈**
**World cup winner is Germany 🎉🏆**