Query: The report, published in the journal Nature Geoscience on September 18, acknowledges that most of the models of warming trends failed to predict the ‘slowdown’ in warming post-2000, resulting in less pronounced warming than predicted and thus more room in the CO2 ‘emissions budget’ for the coming decades.

Relevant passages:
Global warming hiatus <=SEP=> A global warming hiatus , also sometimes referred to as a global warming pause or a global warming slowdown , is a period of relatively little change in globally averaged surface temperatures . In the current episode of global warming many such 15-year periods appear in the surface temperature record , along with robust evidence of the long-term warming trend ; climate is classically averaged over 30-year periods .   Publicity has surrounded claims of a global warming hiatus during the period 1998 -- 2013 . The exceptionally warm El Niño year of 1998 was an outlier from the continuing temperature trend , and so subsequent annual temperatures gave the appearance of a hiatus : by January 2006 , it appeared to some that global warming had stopped or paused . A 2009 study showed that decades without warming were not exceptional , and in 2011 a study showed that if allowances were made for known variability , the rising temperature trend continued unabated . There was increased public interest in 2013 in the run-up to publication of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report , and despite concerns that a 15-year period was too short to determine a meaningful trend , the IPCC included a section on a hiatus , which it defined as a much smaller increasing linear trend over the 15 years from 1998 to 2012 , than over the 60 years from 1951 to 2012 . Various studies examined possible causes of the short-term slowdown . Even though the overall climate system has continued to accumulate energy due to Earth 's positive energy budget , the available temperature readings at the Earth 's surface indicate slower rates of increase in surface warming than in the prior decade . Since measurements at the top of the atmosphere show that Earth is receiving more energy than it is radiating back into space , the retained energy should be producing warming in the Earth 's climate system .   Research reported in July 2015 on an updated NOAA dataset casts doubt on the existence of a hiatus , and it finds no indication of a slowdown even in earlier years . Scientists working on other datasets welcomed this study , though they have expressed the view that the recent warming trend was less than in previous periods of the same length . Subsequently , a detailed study supports the conclusion that warming is continuing , but it also find there was less warming between 2001 and 2010 than climate models had predicted , and that this slowdown might be attributed to short-term variations in the Pacific decadal oscillation ( PDO ) , which was negative during that period . Another review finds `` no substantive evidence '' of a pause in global warming . A statistical study of global temperature data since 1970 concludes that the term ` hiatus ' or ` pause ' is not justified .   Independent of these discussions about data and measurements for earlier years , 2015 turned out to be much warmer than any of the earlier years , already before El Niño conditions started . The warmth of 2015 largely ended any remaining scientific credibility of claims that the supposed `` hiatus '' since 1998 had any significance for the long-term warming trend . In January 2017 , a study published in the journal Science Advances cast further doubt on the existence of a recent pause , with more evidence that ocean temperatures have been underestimated . An April 2017 study found the data consistent with a steady warming trend globally since the 1970s , with fluctuations within the expected range of short term variability .

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change <=SEP=> The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC ) is a scientific and intergovernmental body under the auspices of the United Nations , set up at the request of member governments , dedicated to the task of providing the world with an objective , scientific view of climate change and its political and economic impacts . It was first established in 1988 by two United Nations organizations , the World Meteorological Organization ( WMO ) and the United Nations Environment Programme ( UNEP ) , and later endorsed by the United Nations General Assembly through Resolution 43/53 . Membership of the IPCC is open to all members of the WMO and UNEP .  The IPCC produces reports that support the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change ( UNFCCC ) , which is the main international treaty on climate change . The ultimate objective of the UNFCCC is to `` stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic -LSB- i.e. , human-induced -RSB- interference with the climate system '' . IPCC reports cover `` the scientific , technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change , its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation . ''   The IPCC does not carry out its own original research , nor does it do the work of monitoring climate or related phenomena itself . The IPCC bases its assessment on the published literature , which includes peer-reviewed and non-peer-reviewed sources .   Thousands of scientists and other experts contribute ( on a voluntary basis , without payment from the IPCC ) to writing and reviewing reports , which are then reviewed by governments . IPCC reports contain a `` Summary for Policymakers '' , which is subject to line-by-line approval by delegates from all participating governments . Typically this involves the governments of more than 120 countries .   The IPCC provides an internationally accepted authority on climate change , producing reports which have the agreement of leading climate scientists and the consensus of participating governments . The 2007 Nobel Peace Prize was shared , in equal parts , between the IPCC and Al Gore .

Global warming <=SEP=> Global warming , also referred to as climate change , is the observed century-scale rise in the average temperature of the Earth 's climate system and its related effects . Multiple lines of scientific evidence show that the climate system is warming . Many of the observed changes since the 1950s are unprecedented in the instrumental temperature record which extends back to the mid 19th century , and in paleoclimate proxy records over thousands of years .   In 2013 , the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC ) Fifth Assessment Report concluded that `` It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century . '' The largest human influence has been emission of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide , methane and nitrous oxide . Climate model projections summarized in the report indicated that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 0.3 to for their lowest emissions scenario and 2.6 to for the highest emissions scenario . These findings have been recognized by the national science academies of the major industrialized nations and are not disputed by any scientific body of national or international standing .   Future climate change and associated impacts will differ from region to region around the globe . Anticipated effects include warming global temperature , rising sea levels , changing precipitation , and expansion of deserts in the subtropics . Warming is expected to be greater over land than over the oceans and greatest in the Arctic , with the continuing retreat of glaciers , permafrost and sea ice . Other likely changes include more frequent extreme weather events including heat waves , droughts , heavy rainfall with floods and heavy snowfall ; ocean acidification ; and species extinctions due to shifting temperature regimes . Effects significant to humans include the threat to food security from decreasing crop yields and the abandonment of populated areas due to rising sea levels . Because the climate system has a large `` inertia '' and greenhouse gases will stay in the atmosphere for a long time , many of these effects will not only exist for decades or centuries , but will persist for tens of thousands of years .   Possible societal responses to global warming include mitigation by emissions reduction , adaptation to its effects , building systems resilient to its effects , and possible future climate engineering . Most countries are parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change ( UNFCCC ) ,  whose ultimate objective is to prevent dangerous anthropogenic climate change . Parties to the UNFCCC have agreed that deep cuts in emissions are required and that global warming should be limited to well below 2.0 C-change relative to pre-industrial levels , with efforts made to limit warming to 1.5 C-change .   Public reactions to global warming and concern about its effects are also increasing . A global 2015 Pew Research Center report showed a median of 54 % consider it `` a very serious problem '' . There are significant regional differences , with Americans and Chinese ( whose economies are responsible for the greatest annual CO2 emissions ) among the least concerned .