Query: This requires us to work towards avoiding catastrophic possibilities rather than looking at probabilities, as learning from mistakes is not an option when it comes to existential risks.

Relevant passages:
Risk <=SEP=> Risk is the potential of gaining or losing something of value . Values ( such as physical health , social status , emotional well-being , or financial wealth ) can be gained or lost when taking risk resulting from a given action or inaction , foreseen or unforeseen . Risk can also be defined as the intentional interaction with uncertainty . Uncertainty is a potential , unpredictable , and uncontrollable outcome ; risk is a consequence of action taken in spite of uncertainty .   Risk perception is the subjective judgment people make about the severity and probability of a risk , and may vary person to person . Any human endeavor carries some risk , but some are much riskier than others .

Human extinction <=SEP=> In futures studies , human extinction is the hypothetical end of the human species . This may be caused by natural causes or it may be anthropogenic , i.e. the result of human action .   The likelihood of human extinction in the near future by wholly natural scenarios , such as a meteorite impact or large-scale volcanism , is generally considered to be extremely low .   For anthropogenic extinction , many possible scenarios have been proposed : Human global nuclear annihilation , biological warfare or the release of a pandemic-causing agent , dysgenics , overpopulation , ecological collapse , and global warming ; in addition , emerging technologies could bring about new extinction scenarios , such as advanced artificial intelligence , biotechnology or self-replicating nanobots . The probability of anthropogenic human extinction within the next hundred years is the topic of an active debate .   Human extinction needs to be differentiated from the extinction of all life on Earth ( see also future of Earth ) and from the extinction of major components of human culture ( e.g. , through a global catastrophe leaving only small , scattered human populations , which might evolve in isolation ) .

Nick Bostrom <=SEP=> Nick Bostrom ( -LSB- langˈbɒstrəm -RSB- Niklas Boström , -LSB- ˈbuːˌstrœm -RSB- ; born 10 March 1973 ) is a Swedish philosopher at the University of Oxford known for his work on existential risk , the anthropic principle , human enhancement ethics , superintelligence risks , the reversal test , and consequentialism . In 2011 , he founded the Oxford Martin Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology , and he is currently the founding director of the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford University .   He is the author of over 200 publications , including Superintelligence : Paths , Dangers , Strategies ( 2014 ) , a New York Times bestseller and Anthropic Bias : Observation Selection Effects in Science and Philosophy ( 2002 ) . In 2009 and 2015 , he was included in Foreign Policys Top 100 Global Thinkers list . Bostrom 's work on superintelligence -- and his concern for its existential risk to humanity over the coming century -- has brought both Elon Musk and Bill Gates to similar thinking .

Futures studies <=SEP=> Futures studies ( also called futurology ) is the study of postulating possible , probable , and preferable futures and the worldviews and myths that underlie them . There is a debate as to whether this discipline is an art or science . In general , it can be considered as a branch of the social sciences and parallel to the field of history . History studies the past , futures studies considers the future . Futures studies ( colloquially called `` futures '' by many of the field 's practitioners ) seeks to understand what is likely to continue and what could plausibly change . Part of the discipline thus seeks a systematic and pattern-based understanding of past and present , and to determine the likelihood of future events and trends . Unlike the physical sciences where a narrower , more specified system is studied , futures studies concerns a much bigger and more complex world system . The methodology and knowledge are much less proven as compared to natural science or even social science like sociology , economics , and political science .