Query: Doubling the concentration of atmospheric CO2 from its pre-industrial level, in the absence of other forcings and feedbacks, would likely cause a warming of ~0.3°C to 1.1°C.

Relevant passages:
Permian–Triassic extinction event <=SEP=> The Permian -- Triassic ( P -- Tr or P -- T ) extinction event , colloquially known as the Great Dying , the End-Permian Extinction or the Great Permian Extinction , occurred about 252 Ma ( million years ) ago , forming the boundary between the Permian and Triassic geologic periods , as well as the Paleozoic and Mesozoic eras . It is the Earth 's most severe known extinction event , with up to 96 % of all marine species and 70 % of terrestrial vertebrate species becoming extinct . It is the only known mass extinction of insects . Some 57 % of all families and 83 % of all genera became extinct . Because so much biodiversity was lost , the recovery of life on Earth took significantly longer than after any other extinction event , possibly up to 10 million years . Studies in Bear Lake County near the Idaho city of Paris showed a quick and dynamic rebound in a marine ecosystem , illustrating the remarkable resiliency of life .   There is evidence for one to three distinct pulses , or phases , of extinction . Suggested mechanisms for the latter include one or more large meteor impact events , massive volcanism such as that of the Siberian Traps , and the ensuing coal or gas fires and explosions , and a runaway greenhouse effect triggered by sudden release of methane from the sea floor due to methane clathrate dissociation or methane-producing microbes known as methanogens ; possible contributing gradual changes include sea-level change , increasing anoxia , increasing aridity , and a shift in ocean circulation driven by climate change .

Climate change feedback <=SEP=> Climate change feedback is important in the understanding of global warming because feedback processes may amplify or diminish the effect of each climate forcing , and so play an important part in determining the climate sensitivity and future climate state . Feedback in general is the process in which changing one quantity changes a second quantity , and the change in the second quantity in turn changes the first . Positive feedback amplifies the change in the first quantity while negative feedback reduces it .   The term `` forcing '' means a change which may `` push '' the climate system in the direction of warming or cooling . An example of a climate forcing is increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases . By definition , forcings are external to the climate system while feedbacks are internal ; in essence , feedbacks represent the internal processes of the system . Some feedbacks may act in relative isolation to the rest of the climate system ; others may be tightly coupled ; hence it may be difficult to tell just how much a particular process contributes . Forcings , feedbacks and the dynamics of the climate system determine how much and how fast the climate changes . The main positive feedback in global warming is the tendency of warming to increase the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere , which in turn leads to further warming . The main negative feedback comes from the Stefan -- Boltzmann law , the amount of heat radiated from the Earth into space changes with the fourth power of the temperature of Earth 's surface and atmosphere .   Some observed and potential effects of global warming are positive feedbacks , which contribute directly to further global warming . The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 's ( IPCC ) Fourth Assessment Report states that `` Anthropogenic warming could lead to some effects that are abrupt or irreversible , depending upon the rate and magnitude of the climate change . ''

Climate sensitivity <=SEP=> Climate sensitivity is the equilibrium temperature change in response to changes of the radiative forcing . Therefore , climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state , but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise palaeoclimate data . Slow climate feedbacks , especially changes of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2 , amplify the total Earth system sensitivity by an amount that depends on the time scale considered .   Although climate sensitivity is usually used in the context of radiative forcing by carbon dioxide ( CO2 ) , it is thought of as a general property of the climate system : the change in surface air temperature ( ΔTs ) following a unit change in radiative forcing ( RF ) , and thus is expressed in units of ° C / ( W/m2 ) . For this to be useful , the measure must be independent of the nature of the forcing ( e.g. from greenhouse gases or solar variation ) ; to first order this is indeed found to be so .   The climate sensitivity specifically due to is often expressed as the temperature change in ° C associated with a doubling of the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth 's atmosphere .   For coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models ( e.g. CMIP5 ) the climate sensitivity is an emergent property : it is not a model parameter , but rather a result of a combination of model physics and parameters . By contrast , simpler energy-balance models may have climate sensitivity as an explicit parameter .   The terms represented in the equation relate radiative forcing ( RF ) to linear changes in global surface temperature change ( ΔTs ) via the climate sensitivity λ .   It is also possible to estimate climate sensitivity from observations ; however , this is difficult due to uncertainties in the forcing and temperature histories .

Global warming <=SEP=> Global warming , also referred to as climate change , is the observed century-scale rise in the average temperature of the Earth 's climate system and its related effects . Multiple lines of scientific evidence show that the climate system is warming . Many of the observed changes since the 1950s are unprecedented in the instrumental temperature record which extends back to the mid 19th century , and in paleoclimate proxy records over thousands of years .   In 2013 , the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC ) Fifth Assessment Report concluded that `` It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century . '' The largest human influence has been emission of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide , methane and nitrous oxide . Climate model projections summarized in the report indicated that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 0.3 to for their lowest emissions scenario and 2.6 to for the highest emissions scenario . These findings have been recognized by the national science academies of the major industrialized nations and are not disputed by any scientific body of national or international standing .   Future climate change and associated impacts will differ from region to region around the globe . Anticipated effects include warming global temperature , rising sea levels , changing precipitation , and expansion of deserts in the subtropics . Warming is expected to be greater over land than over the oceans and greatest in the Arctic , with the continuing retreat of glaciers , permafrost and sea ice . Other likely changes include more frequent extreme weather events including heat waves , droughts , heavy rainfall with floods and heavy snowfall ; ocean acidification ; and species extinctions due to shifting temperature regimes . Effects significant to humans include the threat to food security from decreasing crop yields and the abandonment of populated areas due to rising sea levels . Because the climate system has a large `` inertia '' and greenhouse gases will stay in the atmosphere for a long time , many of these effects will not only exist for decades or centuries , but will persist for tens of thousands of years .   Possible societal responses to global warming include mitigation by emissions reduction , adaptation to its effects , building systems resilient to its effects , and possible future climate engineering . Most countries are parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change ( UNFCCC ) ,  whose ultimate objective is to prevent dangerous anthropogenic climate change . Parties to the UNFCCC have agreed that deep cuts in emissions are required and that global warming should be limited to well below 2.0 C-change relative to pre-industrial levels , with efforts made to limit warming to 1.5 C-change .   Public reactions to global warming and concern about its effects are also increasing . A global 2015 Pew Research Center report showed a median of 54 % consider it `` a very serious problem '' . There are significant regional differences , with Americans and Chinese ( whose economies are responsible for the greatest annual CO2 emissions ) among the least concerned .