Query: ‘Next year or the year after, the Arctic will be free of ice’

Relevant passages:
Arctic Ocean <=SEP=> The Arctic Ocean is the smallest and shallowest of the world 's five major oceans . The International Hydrographic Organization ( IHO ) recognizes it as an ocean , although some oceanographers call it the Arctic Mediterranean Sea or simply the Arctic Sea , classifying it a mediterranean sea or an estuary of the Atlantic Ocean . Alternatively , the Arctic Ocean can be seen as the northernmost part of the all-encompassing World Ocean .   Located mostly in the Arctic north polar region in the middle of the Northern Hemisphere , the Arctic Ocean is almost completely surrounded by Eurasia and North America . It is partly covered by sea ice throughout the year and almost completely in winter . The Arctic Ocean 's surface temperature and salinity vary seasonally as the ice cover melts and freezes ; its salinity is the lowest on average of the five major oceans , due to low evaporation , heavy fresh water inflow from rivers and streams , and limited connection and outflow to surrounding oceanic waters with higher salinities . The summer shrinking of the ice has been quoted at 50 % . The US National Snow and Ice Data Center ( NSIDC ) uses satellite data to provide a daily record of Arctic sea ice cover and the rate of melting compared to an average period and specific past years .

Ice age <=SEP=> An ice age is a period of long-term reduction in the temperature of Earth 's surface and atmosphere , resulting in the presence or expansion of continental and polar ice sheets and alpine glaciers . Within a long-term ice age , individual pulses of cold climate are termed `` glacial periods '' ( or alternatively `` glacials '' or `` glaciations '' or colloquially as `` ice age '' ) , and intermittent warm periods are called `` interglacials '' . In the terminology of glaciology , ice age implies the presence of extensive ice sheets in both northern and southern hemispheres . By this definition , we are in an interglacial period -- the Holocene -- of the ice age . The ice age began 2.6 million years ago at the start of the Pleistocene epoch , because the Greenland , Arctic , and Antarctic ice sheets still exist .

North Pole <=SEP=> The North Pole , also known as the Geographic North Pole or Terrestrial North Pole , is ( subject to the caveats explained below ) defined as the point in the Northern Hemisphere where the Earth 's axis of rotation meets its surface .   The North Pole is the northernmost point on the Earth , lying diametrically opposite the South Pole . It defines geodetic latitude 90 ° North , as well as the direction of true north . At the North Pole all directions point south ; all lines of longitude converge there , so its longitude can be defined as any degree value . Along tight latitude circles , counterclockwise is east and clockwise is west . The North Pole is at the center of the Northern Hemisphere .   While the South Pole lies on a continental land mass , the North Pole is located in the middle of the Arctic Ocean amid waters that are almost permanently covered with constantly shifting sea ice . This makes it impractical to construct a permanent station at the North Pole ( unlike the South Pole ) . However , the Soviet Union , and later Russia , constructed a number of manned drifting stations on a generally annual basis since 1937 , some of which have passed over or very close to the Pole . Since 2002 , the Russians have also annually established a base , Barneo , close to the Pole . This operates for a few weeks during early spring . Studies in the 2000s predicted that the North Pole may become seasonally ice-free because of Arctic ice shrinkage , with timescales varying from 2016 to the late 21st century or later .   The sea depth at the North Pole has been measured at 4261 m by the Russian Mir submersible in 2007 and at 4,087 m ( 13,410 ft ) by USS Nautilus in 1958 . The nearest land is usually said to be Kaffeklubben Island , off the northern coast of Greenland about 700 km away , though some perhaps non-permanent gravel banks lie slightly closer . The nearest permanently inhabited place is Alert in the Qikiqtaaluk Region , Nunavut , Canada , which is located 817 km from the Pole .

Arctic sea ice decline <=SEP=> Arctic sea ice decline is the sea ice loss observed in recent decades in the Arctic Ocean . The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC ) Fourth Assessment Report states that greenhouse gas forcing is largely , but not wholly , responsible for the decline in Arctic sea ice extent . A study from 2011 suggested that internal variability enhanced the greenhouse gas forced sea ice decline over the last decades . A study from 2007 found the decline to be `` faster than forecasted '' by model simulations . The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report concluded with high confidence that sea ice continues to decrease in extent , and that there is robust evidence for the downward trend in Arctic summer sea ice extent since 1979 . It has been established that the region is at its warmest for at least 40,000 years and the Arctic-wide melt season has lengthened at a rate of 5 days per decade ( from 1979 to 2013 ) , dominated by a later autumn freezeup . Sea ice changes have been identified as a mechanism for polar amplification .