Query: While there are uncertainties with climate models, they successfully reproduce the past and have made predictions that have been subsequently confirmed by observations.

Relevant passages:
Hockey stick controversy <=SEP=> In the hockey stick controversy , the data and methods used in reconstructions of the temperature record of the past 1000 years have been disputed . Reconstructions have consistently shown that the rise in the instrumental temperature record of the past 150 years is not matched in earlier centuries , and the name `` hockey stick graph '' was coined for figures showing a long-term decline followed by an abrupt rise in temperatures . These graphs were publicised to explain the scientific findings of climatology , and in addition to scientific debate over the reconstructions , they have been the topic of political dispute . The issue is part of the global warming controversy and has been one focus of political responses to reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC ) . Arguments over the reconstructions have been taken up by fossil fuel industry funded lobbying groups attempting to cast doubt on climate science .   The use of proxy indicators to get quantitative estimates of the temperature record of past centuries was developed from the 1990s onwards , and found indications that recent warming was exceptional . The reconstruction introduced the `` Composite Plus Scaling '' ( CPS ) method used by most later large-scale reconstructions , and its findings were disputed by Patrick Michaels at the United States House Committee on Science .   In 1998 , Michael E. Mann , Raymond S. Bradley and Malcolm K. Hughes developed new statistical techniques to produce ( MBH98 ) , the first eigenvector-based climate field reconstruction ( CFR ) . This showed global patterns of annual surface temperature , and included a graph of average hemispheric temperatures back to 1400 . In ( MBH99 ) the methodology was extended back to 1000 . The term hockey stick was coined by the climatologist Jerry D. Mahlman , to describe the pattern this showed , envisaging a graph that is relatively flat to 1900 as forming an ice hockey stick 's `` shaft '' , followed by a sharp increase corresponding to the `` blade '' .  A version of this graph was featured prominently in the 2001 IPCC Third Assessment Report ( TAR ) , along with four other reconstructions supporting the same conclusion . The graph was publicised , and became a focus of dispute for those opposed to the strengthening scientific consensus that late 20th-century warmth was exceptional .   Those disputing the graph included Pat Michaels , the George C. Marshall Institute and Fred Singer . A paper by Willie Soon and Sallie Baliunas claiming greater medieval warmth was used by the Bush administration chief of staff Philip Cooney to justify altering the first Environmental Protection Agency Report on the Environment . The paper was quickly dismissed by scientists in the Soon and Baliunas controversy , but on July 28 , Republican Jim Inhofe spoke in the Senate citing it to claim `` that man-made global warming is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people '' .   Later in 2003 , a paper by Steve McIntyre and Ross McKitrick disputing the data used in MBH98 paper was publicised by the George C. Marshall Institute and the Competitive Enterprise Institute . In 2004 , Hans von Storch published criticism of the statistical techniques as tending to underplay variations in earlier parts of the graph , though this was disputed and he later accepted that the effect was very small . In 2005 , McIntyre and McKitrick published criticisms of the principal component analysis methodology as used in MBH98 and MBH99 . The analysis therein was subsequently disputed by published papers , including and , which pointed to errors in the McIntyre and McKitrick methodology . In June 2005 , Rep. Joe Barton launched what Sherwood Boehlert , chairman of the House Science Committee , called a `` misguided and illegitimate investigation '' into the data , methods and personal information of Mann , Bradley and Hughes . At Boehlert 's request , a panel of scientists convened by the National Research Council was set up , which reported in 2006 , supporting Mann 's findings with some qualifications , including agreeing that there were some statistical failings but these had little effect on the result . Barton and U.S. Rep. Ed Whitfield requested Edward Wegman to set up a team of statisticians to investigate , and they supported McIntyre and McKitrick 's view that there were statistical failings , although they did not quantify whether there was any significant effect . They also produced an extensive network analysis which has been discredited by expert opinion and found to have issues of plagiarism . Arguments against the MBH studies were reintroduced as part of the Climatic Research Unit email controversy , but dismissed by eight independent investigations .   More than two dozen reconstructions , using various statistical methods and combinations of proxy records , have supported the broad consensus shown in the original 1998 hockey-stick graph , with variations in how flat the pre-20th century `` shaft '' appears . The 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report cited 14 reconstructions , 10 of which covered 1,000 years or longer , to support its strengthened conclusion that it was likely that Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the 20th century were the highest in at least the past 1,300 years . Over a dozen subsequent reconstructions , including Mann et al. 2008 and , have supported these general conclusions .

Science <=SEP=> Science is a systematic enterprise that builds and organizes knowledge in the form of testable explanations and predictions about the universe .   Contemporary science is typically subdivided into the natural sciences , which study the material universe ; the social sciences , which study people and societies ; and the formal sciences , which study logic and mathematics . The formal sciences are often excluded as they do not depend on empirical observations . Disciplines which use science , like engineering and medicine , may also be considered to be applied sciences .   From classical antiquity through the 19th century , science as a type of knowledge was more closely linked to philosophy than it is now , and in the Western world the term `` natural philosophy '' once encompassed fields of study that are today associated with science , such as astronomy , medicine , and physics . However , during the Islamic Golden Age foundations for the scientific method were laid by Ibn al-Haytham in his Book of Optics . While the classification of the material world by the ancient Indians and Greeks into air , earth , fire and water was more philosophical , medieval Middle Easterns used practical and experimental observation to classify materials .   In the 17th and 18th centuries , scientists increasingly sought to formulate knowledge in terms of physical laws . Over the course of the 19th century , the word `` science '' became increasingly associated with the scientific method itself as a disciplined way to study the natural world . It was during this time that scientific disciplines such as biology , chemistry , and physics reached their modern shapes . That same time period also included the origin of the terms `` scientist '' and `` scientific community '' , the founding of scientific institutions , and the increasing significance of their interactions with society and other aspects of culture .

General circulation model <=SEP=> A general circulation model ( GCM ) is a type of climate model . It employs a mathematical model of the general circulation of a planetary atmosphere or ocean . It uses the Navier -- Stokes equations on a rotating sphere with thermodynamic terms for various energy sources ( radiation , latent heat ) . These equations are the basis for computer programs used to simulate the Earth 's atmosphere or oceans . Atmospheric and oceanic GCMs ( AGCM and OGCM ) are key components along with sea ice and land-surface components .   GCMs and global climate models are used for weather forecasting , understanding the climate and forecasting climate change .   Versions designed for decade to century time scale climate applications were originally created by Syukuro Manabe and Kirk Bryan at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton , New Jersey . These models are based on the integration of a variety of fluid dynamical , chemical and sometimes biological equations .

Ozone depletion <=SEP=> Ozone depletion describes two distinct but related phenomena observed since the late 1970s : a steady decline of about four percent in the total amount of ozone in Earth 's stratosphere ( the ozone layer ) , and a much larger springtime decrease in stratospheric ozone around Earth 's polar regions . The latter phenomenon is referred to as the ozone hole . In addition to these well-known stratospheric phenomena , there are also springtime polar tropospheric ozone depletion events .   The details of polar ozone hole formation differ from that of mid-latitude thinning but the most important process in both is catalytic destruction of ozone by atomic halogens . The main source of these halogen atoms in the stratosphere is photodissociation of man-made halocarbon refrigerants , solvents , propellants , and foam-blowing agents ( chlorofluorocarbon ( CFCs ) , HCFCs , freons , halons ) . These compounds are transported into the stratosphere by winds after being emitted at the surface . Both types of ozone depletion were observed to increase as emissions of halocarbons increased .   CFCs and other contributory substances are referred to as ozone-depleting substances ( ODS ) . Since the ozone layer prevents most harmful UVB wavelengths ( 280 -- 315 nm ) of ultraviolet light ( UV light ) from passing through the Earth 's atmosphere , observed and projected decreases in ozone generated worldwide concern , leading to adoption of the Montreal Protocol that bans the production of CFCs , halons , and other ozone-depleting chemicals such as carbon tetrachloride and trichloroethane . It is suspected that a variety of biological consequences such as increases in sunburn , skin cancer , cataracts , damage to plants , and reduction of plankton populations in the ocean 's photic zone may result from the increased UV exposure due to ozone depletion .