Query: current climate predictions may underestimate long-term warming by as much as a factor of two

Relevant passages:
Sea level rise <=SEP=> A sea level rise is an increase in the volume of water in the world 's oceans , resulting in an increase in global mean sea level . Sea level rise is usually attributed to global climate change by thermal expansion of the water in the oceans and by melting of Ice sheets and glaciers on land . Melting of floating ice shelves or icebergs at sea raises sea levels only slightly .   Sea level rise at specific locations may be more or less than the global average . Local factors might include tectonic effects , subsidence of the land , tides , currents , storms , etc. .  Sea level rise is expected to continue for centuries . Because of the slow inertia , long response time for parts of the climate system , it has been estimated that we are already committed to a sea-level rise of approximately 2.3 m for each degree Celsius of temperature rise within the next 2,000 years . IPCC Summary for Policymakers , AR5 , 2014 , indicated that the global mean sea level rise will continue during the 21st century , very likely at a faster rate than observed from 1971 to 2010 . Projected rates and amounts vary . A January 2017 NOAA report suggests a range of GMSL rise of 0.3 -- 2.5 m possible during the 21st century .   Sea level rises can considerably influence human populations in coastal and island regions and natural environments like marine ecosystems .

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change <=SEP=> The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC ) is a scientific and intergovernmental body under the auspices of the United Nations , set up at the request of member governments , dedicated to the task of providing the world with an objective , scientific view of climate change and its political and economic impacts . It was first established in 1988 by two United Nations organizations , the World Meteorological Organization ( WMO ) and the United Nations Environment Programme ( UNEP ) , and later endorsed by the United Nations General Assembly through Resolution 43/53 . Membership of the IPCC is open to all members of the WMO and UNEP .  The IPCC produces reports that support the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change ( UNFCCC ) , which is the main international treaty on climate change . The ultimate objective of the UNFCCC is to `` stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic -LSB- i.e. , human-induced -RSB- interference with the climate system '' . IPCC reports cover `` the scientific , technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change , its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation . ''   The IPCC does not carry out its own original research , nor does it do the work of monitoring climate or related phenomena itself . The IPCC bases its assessment on the published literature , which includes peer-reviewed and non-peer-reviewed sources .   Thousands of scientists and other experts contribute ( on a voluntary basis , without payment from the IPCC ) to writing and reviewing reports , which are then reviewed by governments . IPCC reports contain a `` Summary for Policymakers '' , which is subject to line-by-line approval by delegates from all participating governments . Typically this involves the governments of more than 120 countries .   The IPCC provides an internationally accepted authority on climate change , producing reports which have the agreement of leading climate scientists and the consensus of participating governments . The 2007 Nobel Peace Prize was shared , in equal parts , between the IPCC and Al Gore .

Global warming <=SEP=> Global warming , also referred to as climate change , is the observed century-scale rise in the average temperature of the Earth 's climate system and its related effects . Multiple lines of scientific evidence show that the climate system is warming . Many of the observed changes since the 1950s are unprecedented in the instrumental temperature record which extends back to the mid 19th century , and in paleoclimate proxy records over thousands of years .   In 2013 , the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC ) Fifth Assessment Report concluded that `` It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century . '' The largest human influence has been emission of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide , methane and nitrous oxide . Climate model projections summarized in the report indicated that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 0.3 to for their lowest emissions scenario and 2.6 to for the highest emissions scenario . These findings have been recognized by the national science academies of the major industrialized nations and are not disputed by any scientific body of national or international standing .   Future climate change and associated impacts will differ from region to region around the globe . Anticipated effects include warming global temperature , rising sea levels , changing precipitation , and expansion of deserts in the subtropics . Warming is expected to be greater over land than over the oceans and greatest in the Arctic , with the continuing retreat of glaciers , permafrost and sea ice . Other likely changes include more frequent extreme weather events including heat waves , droughts , heavy rainfall with floods and heavy snowfall ; ocean acidification ; and species extinctions due to shifting temperature regimes . Effects significant to humans include the threat to food security from decreasing crop yields and the abandonment of populated areas due to rising sea levels . Because the climate system has a large `` inertia '' and greenhouse gases will stay in the atmosphere for a long time , many of these effects will not only exist for decades or centuries , but will persist for tens of thousands of years .   Possible societal responses to global warming include mitigation by emissions reduction , adaptation to its effects , building systems resilient to its effects , and possible future climate engineering . Most countries are parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change ( UNFCCC ) ,  whose ultimate objective is to prevent dangerous anthropogenic climate change . Parties to the UNFCCC have agreed that deep cuts in emissions are required and that global warming should be limited to well below 2.0 C-change relative to pre-industrial levels , with efforts made to limit warming to 1.5 C-change .   Public reactions to global warming and concern about its effects are also increasing . A global 2015 Pew Research Center report showed a median of 54 % consider it `` a very serious problem '' . There are significant regional differences , with Americans and Chinese ( whose economies are responsible for the greatest annual CO2 emissions ) among the least concerned .