Query: When we do the calculations and include all radiative forcings and the amount of heat being absorbed by the oceans, it shows that the Earth has warmed almost exactly as much as we would expect.

Relevant passages:
Earth <=SEP=> Earth ( from Eorðe -LSB- Γαῖα , Gaia -RSB- Terra ) , otherwise known as the World or the Globe , is the third planet from the Sun and the only object in the Universe known to harbor life . It is the densest planet in the Solar System and the largest of the four terrestrial planets .   According to radiometric dating and other sources of evidence , Earth formed about 4.54 billion years ago . Earth 's gravity interacts with other objects in space , especially the Sun and the Moon , Earth 's only natural satellite . During one orbit around the Sun , Earth rotates about its axis over 365 times ; thus , an Earth year is about 365.26 days long . Earth 's axis of rotation is tilted , producing seasonal variations on the planet 's surface . The gravitational interaction between the Earth and Moon causes ocean tides , stabilizes the Earth 's orientation on its axis , and gradually slows its rotation .   Earth 's lithosphere is divided into several rigid tectonic plates that migrate across the surface over periods of many millions of years . About 71 % of Earth 's surface is covered with water , mostly by its oceans . The remaining 29 % is land consisting of continents and islands that together have many lakes , rivers and other sources of water that contribute to the hydrosphere . The majority of Earth 's polar regions are covered in ice , including the Antarctic ice sheet and the sea ice of the Arctic ice pack . Earth 's interior remains active with a solid iron inner core , a liquid outer core that generates the Earth 's magnetic field , and a convecting mantle that drives plate tectonics .   Within the first billion years of Earth 's history , life appeared in the oceans and began to affect the Earth 's atmosphere and surface , leading to the proliferation of aerobic and anaerobic organisms . Some geological evidence indicates that life may have arisen as much as 4.1 billion years ago . Since then , the combination of Earth 's distance from the Sun , physical properties , and geological history have allowed life to evolve and thrive . In the history of the Earth , biodiversity has gone through long periods of expansion , occasionally punctuated by mass extinction events . Over 99 % of all species that ever lived on Earth are extinct . Estimates of the number of species on Earth today vary widely ; most species have not been described . Over 7.4 billion humans live on Earth and depend on its biosphere and minerals for their survival . Humans have developed diverse societies and cultures ; politically , the world has about 200 sovereign states .

Earth's energy budget <=SEP=> Earth 's energy budget accounts for the energy Earth receives from the Sun . Much of this energy is lost when the earth re-radiates it back into outer space , and the rest of the energy is distributed throughout the five components of Earth 's climate system . This system is made up of earth 's water , ice , atmosphere , rocky crust , and all living things .   Quantifying changes in these amounts is required to accurately model the Earth 's climate .   Received radiation is unevenly distributed over the planet , because the Sun heats equatorial regions more than polar regions . Energy is absorbed by the atmosphere , hydrosphere , and lithosphere , and , in a process informally described as Earth 's heat engine , the solar heating is redistributed through evaporation of surface water , convection , rainfall , winds , and ocean circulation . When the incoming solar energy is balanced by an equal flow of heat to space , the Earth is said to be in radiative equilibrium and under that condition , global temperatures will be stable .   Disturbances of Earth 's radiative equilibrium , such as an increase of greenhouse gases , will change global temperatures in response . However , Earth 's energy balance and heat fluxes depend on many factors , such as atmospheric composition ( mainly aerosols and greenhouse gases ) , the albedo ( reflectivity ) of surface properties , cloud cover and vegetation and land use patterns . Changes in surface temperature due to Earth 's energy budget do not occur instantaneously , due to the inertia of the oceans and the cryosphere . The net heat flux is buffered primarily by becoming part of the ocean 's heat content , until a new equilibrium state is established between radiative forcings and the climate response .

Greenhouse effect <=SEP=> The greenhouse effect is the process by which radiation from a planet 's atmosphere warms the planet 's surface to a temperature above what it would be without its atmosphere .   If a planet 's atmosphere contains radiatively active gases ( i.e. , greenhouse gases ) the atmosphere will radiate energy in all directions . Part of this radiation is directed towards the surface , warming it . The downward component of this radiation -- that is , the strength of the greenhouse effect -- will depend on the atmosphere 's temperature and on the amount of greenhouse gases that the atmosphere contains .   On Earth , the atmosphere is warmed by absorption of infrared thermal radiation from the underlying surface ( heated by the sun ) , absorption of shorter wavelength radiant energy from the sun , and convective heat fluxes from the surface . Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere radiate energy , some of which is directed to the surface and lower atmosphere . The mechanism that produces this difference between the actual surface temperature and the effective temperature is due to the atmosphere and is known as the greenhouse effect .   Earth 's natural greenhouse effect is critical to supporting life . Human activities , primarily the burning of fossil fuels and clearing of forests , have intensified the natural greenhouse effect , causing global warming .   The mechanism is named after a faulty analogy with the effect of solar radiation passing through glass and warming a greenhouse . The way a greenhouse retains heat is fundamentally different , as a greenhouse works by reducing airflow and retaining warm air inside the structure .

Global warming <=SEP=> Global warming , also referred to as climate change , is the observed century-scale rise in the average temperature of the Earth 's climate system and its related effects . Multiple lines of scientific evidence show that the climate system is warming . Many of the observed changes since the 1950s are unprecedented in the instrumental temperature record which extends back to the mid 19th century , and in paleoclimate proxy records over thousands of years .   In 2013 , the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC ) Fifth Assessment Report concluded that `` It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century . '' The largest human influence has been emission of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide , methane and nitrous oxide . Climate model projections summarized in the report indicated that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 0.3 to for their lowest emissions scenario and 2.6 to for the highest emissions scenario . These findings have been recognized by the national science academies of the major industrialized nations and are not disputed by any scientific body of national or international standing .   Future climate change and associated impacts will differ from region to region around the globe . Anticipated effects include warming global temperature , rising sea levels , changing precipitation , and expansion of deserts in the subtropics . Warming is expected to be greater over land than over the oceans and greatest in the Arctic , with the continuing retreat of glaciers , permafrost and sea ice . Other likely changes include more frequent extreme weather events including heat waves , droughts , heavy rainfall with floods and heavy snowfall ; ocean acidification ; and species extinctions due to shifting temperature regimes . Effects significant to humans include the threat to food security from decreasing crop yields and the abandonment of populated areas due to rising sea levels . Because the climate system has a large `` inertia '' and greenhouse gases will stay in the atmosphere for a long time , many of these effects will not only exist for decades or centuries , but will persist for tens of thousands of years .   Possible societal responses to global warming include mitigation by emissions reduction , adaptation to its effects , building systems resilient to its effects , and possible future climate engineering . Most countries are parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change ( UNFCCC ) ,  whose ultimate objective is to prevent dangerous anthropogenic climate change . Parties to the UNFCCC have agreed that deep cuts in emissions are required and that global warming should be limited to well below 2.0 C-change relative to pre-industrial levels , with efforts made to limit warming to 1.5 C-change .   Public reactions to global warming and concern about its effects are also increasing . A global 2015 Pew Research Center report showed a median of 54 % consider it `` a very serious problem '' . There are significant regional differences , with Americans and Chinese ( whose economies are responsible for the greatest annual CO2 emissions ) among the least concerned .