Query: Theory, models and direct measurement confirm CO2 is currently the main driver of climate change.

Relevant passages:
Climate change feedback <=SEP=> Climate change feedback is important in the understanding of global warming because feedback processes may amplify or diminish the effect of each climate forcing , and so play an important part in determining the climate sensitivity and future climate state . Feedback in general is the process in which changing one quantity changes a second quantity , and the change in the second quantity in turn changes the first . Positive feedback amplifies the change in the first quantity while negative feedback reduces it .   The term `` forcing '' means a change which may `` push '' the climate system in the direction of warming or cooling . An example of a climate forcing is increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases . By definition , forcings are external to the climate system while feedbacks are internal ; in essence , feedbacks represent the internal processes of the system . Some feedbacks may act in relative isolation to the rest of the climate system ; others may be tightly coupled ; hence it may be difficult to tell just how much a particular process contributes . Forcings , feedbacks and the dynamics of the climate system determine how much and how fast the climate changes . The main positive feedback in global warming is the tendency of warming to increase the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere , which in turn leads to further warming . The main negative feedback comes from the Stefan -- Boltzmann law , the amount of heat radiated from the Earth into space changes with the fourth power of the temperature of Earth 's surface and atmosphere .   Some observed and potential effects of global warming are positive feedbacks , which contribute directly to further global warming . The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 's ( IPCC ) Fourth Assessment Report states that `` Anthropogenic warming could lead to some effects that are abrupt or irreversible , depending upon the rate and magnitude of the climate change . ''

Scientific modelling <=SEP=> Scientific modelling is a scientific activity , the aim of which is to make a particular part or feature of the world easier to understand , define , quantify , visualize , or simulate by referencing it to existing and usually commonly accepted knowledge . It requires selecting and identifying relevant aspects of a situation in the real world and then using different types of models for different aims , such as conceptual models to better understand , operational models to operationalize , mathematical models to quantify , and graphical models to visualize the subject . Modelling is an essential and inseparable part of many scientific disciplines , each of which have their own ideas about specific types of modelling .   There is also an increasing attention to scientific modelling in fields such as science education , philosophy of science , systems theory , and knowledge visualization . There is growing collection of methods , techniques and meta-theory about all kinds of specialized scientific modelling .

Global warming <=SEP=> Global warming , also referred to as climate change , is the observed century-scale rise in the average temperature of the Earth 's climate system and its related effects . Multiple lines of scientific evidence show that the climate system is warming . Many of the observed changes since the 1950s are unprecedented in the instrumental temperature record which extends back to the mid 19th century , and in paleoclimate proxy records over thousands of years .   In 2013 , the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC ) Fifth Assessment Report concluded that `` It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century . '' The largest human influence has been emission of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide , methane and nitrous oxide . Climate model projections summarized in the report indicated that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 0.3 to for their lowest emissions scenario and 2.6 to for the highest emissions scenario . These findings have been recognized by the national science academies of the major industrialized nations and are not disputed by any scientific body of national or international standing .   Future climate change and associated impacts will differ from region to region around the globe . Anticipated effects include warming global temperature , rising sea levels , changing precipitation , and expansion of deserts in the subtropics . Warming is expected to be greater over land than over the oceans and greatest in the Arctic , with the continuing retreat of glaciers , permafrost and sea ice . Other likely changes include more frequent extreme weather events including heat waves , droughts , heavy rainfall with floods and heavy snowfall ; ocean acidification ; and species extinctions due to shifting temperature regimes . Effects significant to humans include the threat to food security from decreasing crop yields and the abandonment of populated areas due to rising sea levels . Because the climate system has a large `` inertia '' and greenhouse gases will stay in the atmosphere for a long time , many of these effects will not only exist for decades or centuries , but will persist for tens of thousands of years .   Possible societal responses to global warming include mitigation by emissions reduction , adaptation to its effects , building systems resilient to its effects , and possible future climate engineering . Most countries are parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change ( UNFCCC ) ,  whose ultimate objective is to prevent dangerous anthropogenic climate change . Parties to the UNFCCC have agreed that deep cuts in emissions are required and that global warming should be limited to well below 2.0 C-change relative to pre-industrial levels , with efforts made to limit warming to 1.5 C-change .   Public reactions to global warming and concern about its effects are also increasing . A global 2015 Pew Research Center report showed a median of 54 % consider it `` a very serious problem '' . There are significant regional differences , with Americans and Chinese ( whose economies are responsible for the greatest annual CO2 emissions ) among the least concerned .