Query: Natural cycles superimposed on a linear warming trend can be mistaken for step changes, but the underlying warming is caused by the external radiative forcing.

Relevant passages:
Natural environment <=SEP=> The natural environment encompasses all living and non-living things occurring naturally , meaning in this case not artificial . The term is most often applied to the Earth or some parts of Earth . This environment encompasses the interaction of all living species , climate , weather , and natural resources that affect human survival and economic activity .   The concept of the natural environment can be distinguished by components :  Complete ecological units that function as natural systems without massive civilized human intervention , including all vegetation , microorganisms , soil , rocks , atmosphere , and natural phenomena that occur within their boundaries and their nature  Universal natural resources and physical phenomena that lack clear-cut boundaries , such as air , water , and climate , as well as energy , radiation , electric charge , and magnetism , not originating from civilized human activity   In contrast to the natural environment is the built environment . In such areas where man has fundamentally transformed landscapes such as urban settings and agricultural land conversion , the natural environment is greatly modified into a simplified human environment . Even acts which seem less extreme , such as building a mud hut or a photovoltaic system in the desert , modify the natural environment into an artificial one . Though many animals build things to provide a better environment for themselves , they are not human , hence beaver dams and the works of Mound-building termites are thought of as natural .   People seldom find absolutely natural environments on Earth , and naturalness usually varies in a continuum , from 100 % natural in one extreme to 0 % natural in the other . More precisely , we can consider the different aspects or components of an environment , and see that their degree of naturalness is not uniform . If , for instance , in an agricultural field , the mineralogic composition and the structure of its soil are similar to those of an undisturbed forest soil , but the structure is quite different .   Natural environment is often used as a synonym for habitat . For instance , when we say that the natural environment of giraffes is the savanna .

Greenhouse gas <=SEP=> A greenhouse gas ( abbrev . GHG ) is a gas in an atmosphere that absorbs and emits radiation within the thermal infrared range . This process is the fundamental cause of the greenhouse effect . The primary greenhouse gases in Earth 's atmosphere are water vapor , carbon dioxide , methane , nitrous oxide , and ozone . Without greenhouse gases , the average temperature of Earth 's surface would be about -18 ° C , rather than the present average of 15 ° C . In the Solar System , the atmospheres of Venus , Mars and Titan also contain gases that cause a greenhouse effect .   Human activities since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution ( taken as the year 1750 ) have produced a 40 % increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide , from 280 ppm in 1750 to 406 ppm in early 2017 . This increase has occurred despite the uptake of a large portion of the emissions by various natural `` sinks '' involved in the carbon cycle . Anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions ( i.e. , emissions produced by human activities ) come from combustion of fossil fuels , principally coal , oil , and natural gas , along with deforestation , soil erosion and animal agriculture .   It has been estimated that if greenhouse gas emissions continue at the present rate , Earth 's surface temperature could exceed historical values as early as 2047 , with potentially harmful effects on ecosystems , biodiversity and the livelihoods of people worldwide . Recent estimates suggest that on the current emissions trajectory the Earth could pass a threshold of 2 ° C global warming , which the United Nations ' IPCC designated as the upper limit to avoid `` dangerous '' global warming , by 2036 .

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report <=SEP=> Climate Change 2007 , the Fourth Assessment Report ( AR4 ) of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC ) , is the fourth in a series of reports intended to assess scientific , technical and socio-economic information concerning climate change , its potential effects , and options for adaptation and mitigation . The report is the largest and most detailed summary of the climate change situation ever undertaken , produced by thousands of authors , editors , and reviewers from dozens of countries , citing over 6,000 peer-reviewed scientific studies .   It supersedes the Third Assessment Report ( 2001 ) , and is superseded by the Fifth Assessment Report .   The headline findings of the report were : `` warming of the climate system is unequivocal '' , and `` most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations . ''

Paleoclimatology <=SEP=> Paleoclimatology ( in British spelling , palaeoclimatology ) is the study of changes in climate taken on the scale of the entire history of Earth . It uses a variety of proxy methods from the Earth and life sciences to obtain data previously preserved within things such as rocks , sediments , ice sheets , tree rings , corals , shells and microfossils . It then uses the records to determine the past states of the Earth 's various climate regions and its atmospheric system . Studies of past changes in the environment and biodiversity often reflect on the current situation , specifically the impact of climate on mass extinctions and biotic recovery .

Planetary boundaries <=SEP=> Planetary boundaries is the central concept in an Earth system framework proposed by a group of Earth system and environmental scientists led by Johan Rockström from the Stockholm Resilience Centre and Will Steffen from the Australian National University . In 2009 , the group proposed a framework of `` planetary boundaries '' designed to define a `` safe operating space for humanity '' for the international community , including governments at all levels , international organizations , civil society , the scientific community and the private sector , as a precondition for sustainable development . This framework is based on scientific research that indicates that since the Industrial Revolution , human actions have gradually become the main driver of global environmental change . The scientists assert that once human activity has passed certain thresholds or tipping points , defined as `` planetary boundaries '' , there is a risk of `` irreversible and abrupt environmental change '' . The group identified nine Earth system processes which have boundaries that , to the extent that they are not crossed , mark the safe zone for the planet . However , because of human activities some of these dangerous boundaries have already been crossed , while others are in imminent danger of being crossed .   Rockström and Steffen collaborated with 26 leading academics , including Nobel laureate Paul Crutzen , Goddard Institute for Space Studies climate scientist James Hansen and the German Chancellor 's chief climate adviser Hans Joachim Schellnhuber . The group identified nine `` planetary life support systems '' essential for human survival , and attempted to quantify just how far seven of these systems have been pushed already . They then estimated how much further we can go before our own survival is threatened ; beyond these boundaries there is a risk of `` irreversible and abrupt environmental change '' which could make Earth less habitable . Estimates indicate that three of these boundaries -- climate change , biodiversity loss , and the biogeochemical flow boundary -- appear to have been crossed . The boundaries are `` rough , first estimates only , surrounded by large uncertainties and knowledge gaps '' that interact in ways that are complex and not well understood . Boundaries can help identify where there is room and define a `` safe space for human development '' , which is an improvement on approaches which aim at just minimizing human impacts on the planet . The 2009 report was presented to the General Assembly of the Club of Rome in Amsterdam . An edited summary of the report was subsequently published as the featured article in a special edition of Nature . Nature also published critical commentary from leading academics they invited to comment on each of the seven planetary boundaries which had been quantified , including comments from Nobel laureate Mario J. Molina and biologist Cristián Samper . In 2015 , a second paper was published in Science updating the Planetary Boundaries concept . The findings were presented at the World Economic Forum in Davos , January 2015 .