Query: that likewise determined that the actual increases in warming post-2000 was ‘generally smaller than trends estimated’ from the models.”

Relevant passages:
Global warming hiatus <=SEP=> A global warming hiatus , also sometimes referred to as a global warming pause or a global warming slowdown , is a period of relatively little change in globally averaged surface temperatures . In the current episode of global warming many such 15-year periods appear in the surface temperature record , along with robust evidence of the long-term warming trend ; climate is classically averaged over 30-year periods .   Publicity has surrounded claims of a global warming hiatus during the period 1998 -- 2013 . The exceptionally warm El Niño year of 1998 was an outlier from the continuing temperature trend , and so subsequent annual temperatures gave the appearance of a hiatus : by January 2006 , it appeared to some that global warming had stopped or paused . A 2009 study showed that decades without warming were not exceptional , and in 2011 a study showed that if allowances were made for known variability , the rising temperature trend continued unabated . There was increased public interest in 2013 in the run-up to publication of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report , and despite concerns that a 15-year period was too short to determine a meaningful trend , the IPCC included a section on a hiatus , which it defined as a much smaller increasing linear trend over the 15 years from 1998 to 2012 , than over the 60 years from 1951 to 2012 . Various studies examined possible causes of the short-term slowdown . Even though the overall climate system has continued to accumulate energy due to Earth 's positive energy budget , the available temperature readings at the Earth 's surface indicate slower rates of increase in surface warming than in the prior decade . Since measurements at the top of the atmosphere show that Earth is receiving more energy than it is radiating back into space , the retained energy should be producing warming in the Earth 's climate system .   Research reported in July 2015 on an updated NOAA dataset casts doubt on the existence of a hiatus , and it finds no indication of a slowdown even in earlier years . Scientists working on other datasets welcomed this study , though they have expressed the view that the recent warming trend was less than in previous periods of the same length . Subsequently , a detailed study supports the conclusion that warming is continuing , but it also find there was less warming between 2001 and 2010 than climate models had predicted , and that this slowdown might be attributed to short-term variations in the Pacific decadal oscillation ( PDO ) , which was negative during that period . Another review finds `` no substantive evidence '' of a pause in global warming . A statistical study of global temperature data since 1970 concludes that the term ` hiatus ' or ` pause ' is not justified .   Independent of these discussions about data and measurements for earlier years , 2015 turned out to be much warmer than any of the earlier years , already before El Niño conditions started . The warmth of 2015 largely ended any remaining scientific credibility of claims that the supposed `` hiatus '' since 1998 had any significance for the long-term warming trend . In January 2017 , a study published in the journal Science Advances cast further doubt on the existence of a recent pause , with more evidence that ocean temperatures have been underestimated . An April 2017 study found the data consistent with a steady warming trend globally since the 1970s , with fluctuations within the expected range of short term variability .

Global warming controversy <=SEP=> The global warming controversy concerns the public debate over whether global warming is occurring , how much has occurred in modern times , what has caused it , what its effects will be , whether any action should be taken to curb it , and if so what that action should be . In the scientific literature , there is a strong consensus that global surface temperatures have increased in recent decades and that the trend is caused by human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases . No scientific body of national or international standing disagrees with this view , though a few organizations with members in extractive industries hold non-committal positions . Disputes over the key scientific facts of global warming are more prevalent in the media than in the scientific literature , where such issues are treated as resolved , and such disputes are more prevalent in the United States than globally .   Political and popular debate concerning the existence and cause of climate change includes the reasons for the increase seen in the instrumental temperature record , whether the warming trend exceeds normal climatic variations , and whether human activities have contributed significantly to it . Scientists have resolved these questions decisively in favour of the view that the current warming trend exists and is ongoing , that human activity is the cause , and that it is without precedent in at least 2000 years . Public disputes that also reflect scientific debate include estimates of how responsive the climate system might be to any given level of greenhouse gases ( climate sensitivity ) , how global climate change will play out at local and regional scales , and what the consequences of global warming will be .   Global warming remains an issue of widespread political debate , often split along party political lines , especially in the United States . Many of the issues that are settled within the scientific community , such as human responsibility for global warming , remain the subject of politically or economically motivated attempts to downplay , dismiss or deny them -- an ideological phenomenon categorised by academics and scientists as climate change denial . The sources of funding for those involved with climate science -- both supporting and opposing mainstream scientific positions -- have been questioned by both sides . There are debates about the best policy responses to the science , their cost-effectiveness and their urgency . Climate scientists , especially in the United States , have reported official and oil-industry pressure to censor or suppress their work and hide scientific data , with directives not to discuss the subject in public communications . Legal cases regarding global warming , its effects , and measures to reduce it have reached American courts . The fossil fuels lobby has been identified as overtly or covertly supporting efforts to undermine or discredit the scientific consensus on global warming .

Global warming <=SEP=> Global warming , also referred to as climate change , is the observed century-scale rise in the average temperature of the Earth 's climate system and its related effects . Multiple lines of scientific evidence show that the climate system is warming . Many of the observed changes since the 1950s are unprecedented in the instrumental temperature record which extends back to the mid 19th century , and in paleoclimate proxy records over thousands of years .   In 2013 , the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC ) Fifth Assessment Report concluded that `` It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century . '' The largest human influence has been emission of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide , methane and nitrous oxide . Climate model projections summarized in the report indicated that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 0.3 to for their lowest emissions scenario and 2.6 to for the highest emissions scenario . These findings have been recognized by the national science academies of the major industrialized nations and are not disputed by any scientific body of national or international standing .   Future climate change and associated impacts will differ from region to region around the globe . Anticipated effects include warming global temperature , rising sea levels , changing precipitation , and expansion of deserts in the subtropics . Warming is expected to be greater over land than over the oceans and greatest in the Arctic , with the continuing retreat of glaciers , permafrost and sea ice . Other likely changes include more frequent extreme weather events including heat waves , droughts , heavy rainfall with floods and heavy snowfall ; ocean acidification ; and species extinctions due to shifting temperature regimes . Effects significant to humans include the threat to food security from decreasing crop yields and the abandonment of populated areas due to rising sea levels . Because the climate system has a large `` inertia '' and greenhouse gases will stay in the atmosphere for a long time , many of these effects will not only exist for decades or centuries , but will persist for tens of thousands of years .   Possible societal responses to global warming include mitigation by emissions reduction , adaptation to its effects , building systems resilient to its effects , and possible future climate engineering . Most countries are parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change ( UNFCCC ) ,  whose ultimate objective is to prevent dangerous anthropogenic climate change . Parties to the UNFCCC have agreed that deep cuts in emissions are required and that global warming should be limited to well below 2.0 C-change relative to pre-industrial levels , with efforts made to limit warming to 1.5 C-change .   Public reactions to global warming and concern about its effects are also increasing . A global 2015 Pew Research Center report showed a median of 54 % consider it `` a very serious problem '' . There are significant regional differences , with Americans and Chinese ( whose economies are responsible for the greatest annual CO2 emissions ) among the least concerned .