Query: Until last June, most scientists acknowledged that warming reached a peak in the late 1990s

Relevant passages:
Hockey stick controversy <=SEP=> In the hockey stick controversy , the data and methods used in reconstructions of the temperature record of the past 1000 years have been disputed . Reconstructions have consistently shown that the rise in the instrumental temperature record of the past 150 years is not matched in earlier centuries , and the name `` hockey stick graph '' was coined for figures showing a long-term decline followed by an abrupt rise in temperatures . These graphs were publicised to explain the scientific findings of climatology , and in addition to scientific debate over the reconstructions , they have been the topic of political dispute . The issue is part of the global warming controversy and has been one focus of political responses to reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC ) . Arguments over the reconstructions have been taken up by fossil fuel industry funded lobbying groups attempting to cast doubt on climate science .   The use of proxy indicators to get quantitative estimates of the temperature record of past centuries was developed from the 1990s onwards , and found indications that recent warming was exceptional . The reconstruction introduced the `` Composite Plus Scaling '' ( CPS ) method used by most later large-scale reconstructions , and its findings were disputed by Patrick Michaels at the United States House Committee on Science .   In 1998 , Michael E. Mann , Raymond S. Bradley and Malcolm K. Hughes developed new statistical techniques to produce ( MBH98 ) , the first eigenvector-based climate field reconstruction ( CFR ) . This showed global patterns of annual surface temperature , and included a graph of average hemispheric temperatures back to 1400 . In ( MBH99 ) the methodology was extended back to 1000 . The term hockey stick was coined by the climatologist Jerry D. Mahlman , to describe the pattern this showed , envisaging a graph that is relatively flat to 1900 as forming an ice hockey stick 's `` shaft '' , followed by a sharp increase corresponding to the `` blade '' .  A version of this graph was featured prominently in the 2001 IPCC Third Assessment Report ( TAR ) , along with four other reconstructions supporting the same conclusion . The graph was publicised , and became a focus of dispute for those opposed to the strengthening scientific consensus that late 20th-century warmth was exceptional .   Those disputing the graph included Pat Michaels , the George C. Marshall Institute and Fred Singer . A paper by Willie Soon and Sallie Baliunas claiming greater medieval warmth was used by the Bush administration chief of staff Philip Cooney to justify altering the first Environmental Protection Agency Report on the Environment . The paper was quickly dismissed by scientists in the Soon and Baliunas controversy , but on July 28 , Republican Jim Inhofe spoke in the Senate citing it to claim `` that man-made global warming is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people '' .   Later in 2003 , a paper by Steve McIntyre and Ross McKitrick disputing the data used in MBH98 paper was publicised by the George C. Marshall Institute and the Competitive Enterprise Institute . In 2004 , Hans von Storch published criticism of the statistical techniques as tending to underplay variations in earlier parts of the graph , though this was disputed and he later accepted that the effect was very small . In 2005 , McIntyre and McKitrick published criticisms of the principal component analysis methodology as used in MBH98 and MBH99 . The analysis therein was subsequently disputed by published papers , including and , which pointed to errors in the McIntyre and McKitrick methodology . In June 2005 , Rep. Joe Barton launched what Sherwood Boehlert , chairman of the House Science Committee , called a `` misguided and illegitimate investigation '' into the data , methods and personal information of Mann , Bradley and Hughes . At Boehlert 's request , a panel of scientists convened by the National Research Council was set up , which reported in 2006 , supporting Mann 's findings with some qualifications , including agreeing that there were some statistical failings but these had little effect on the result . Barton and U.S. Rep. Ed Whitfield requested Edward Wegman to set up a team of statisticians to investigate , and they supported McIntyre and McKitrick 's view that there were statistical failings , although they did not quantify whether there was any significant effect . They also produced an extensive network analysis which has been discredited by expert opinion and found to have issues of plagiarism . Arguments against the MBH studies were reintroduced as part of the Climatic Research Unit email controversy , but dismissed by eight independent investigations .   More than two dozen reconstructions , using various statistical methods and combinations of proxy records , have supported the broad consensus shown in the original 1998 hockey-stick graph , with variations in how flat the pre-20th century `` shaft '' appears . The 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report cited 14 reconstructions , 10 of which covered 1,000 years or longer , to support its strengthened conclusion that it was likely that Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the 20th century were the highest in at least the past 1,300 years . Over a dozen subsequent reconstructions , including Mann et al. 2008 and , have supported these general conclusions .

Hockey stick graph <=SEP=> Hockey stick graphs present the global or hemispherical mean temperature record of the past 500 to 2000 years as shown by quantitative climate reconstructions based on climate proxy records . These reconstructions have consistently shown a slow long term cooling trend changing into relatively rapid warming in the 20th century , with the instrumental temperature record by 2000 exceeding earlier temperatures .   The term `` hockey stick graph '' was coined by the climatologist Jerry Mahlman , to describe the pattern shown by the ( MBH99 ) reconstruction , envisaging a graph that is relatively flat with a downward trend to 1900 as forming an ice hockey stick 's `` shaft '' followed by a sharp , steady increase corresponding to the `` blade '' portion . The reconstructions have featured in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC ) reports as evidence of global warming . Arguments over the reconstructions have been taken up by fossil fuel industry funded lobbying groups attempting to cast doubt on climate science .   Paleoclimatology dates back to the 19th century , and the concept of examining varves in lake beds and tree rings to track local climatic changes was suggested in the 1930s . In the 1960s , Hubert Lamb generalised from historical documents and temperature records of central England to propose a Medieval Warm Period from around 900 to 1300 , followed by Little Ice Age . This was the basis of a `` schematic diagram '' featured in the IPCC First Assessment Report of 1990 beside cautions that the medieval warming might not have been global . The use of indicators to get quantitative estimates of the temperature record of past centuries was developed , and by the late 1990s a number of competing teams of climatologists found indications that recent warming was exceptional . introduced the `` Composite Plus Scaling '' ( CPS ) method used by most later large scale reconstructions . Their study was featured in the IPCC Second Assessment Report of 1995 .   In 1998 Michael E. Mann , Raymond S. Bradley and Malcolm K. Hughes developed new statistical techniques to produce ( MBH98 ) , the first eigenvector-based climate field reconstruction ( CFR ) . This showed global patterns of annual surface temperature , and included a graph of average hemispheric temperatures back to 1400 with shading emphasising that uncertainties ( to two standard error limits ) were much greater in earlier centuries . independently produced a CPS reconstruction extending back for a thousand years , and ( MBH99 ) used the MBH98 methodology to extend their study back to 1000 .   A version of the MBH99 graph was featured prominently in the 2001 IPCC Third Assessment Report ( TAR ) , which also drew on Jones et al. 1998 and three other reconstructions to support the conclusion that , in the Northern Hemisphere , the 1990s was likely to have been the warmest decade and 1998 the warmest year during the past 1,000 years . The graph became a focus of dispute for those opposed to the strengthening scientific consensus that late 20th century warmth was exceptional . In 2003 , as lobbying over the 1997 Kyoto Protocol intensified , a paper claiming greater medieval warmth was quickly dismissed by scientists in the Soon and Baliunas controversy . Later in 2003 , Stephen McIntyre and Ross McKitrick published disputing the data used in MBH98 paper . In 2004 Hans von Storch published criticism of the statistical techniques as tending to underplay variations in earlier parts of the graph , though this was disputed and he later accepted that the effect was very small . In 2005 McIntyre and McKitrick published criticisms of the principal components analysis methodology as used in MBH98 and MBH99 . Their analysis was subsequently disputed by published papers including and which pointed to errors in the McIntyre and McKitrick methodology . Political disputes led to the formation of a panel of scientists convened by the National Research Council , their North Report in 2006 supported Mann 's findings with some qualifications , including agreeing that there were some statistical failings but these had little effect on the result .   More than two dozen reconstructions , using various statistical methods and combinations of proxy records , support the broad consensus shown in the original 1998 hockey-stick graph , with variations in how flat the pre-20th century `` shaft '' appears . The 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report cited 14 reconstructions , 10 of which covered 1,000 years or longer , to support its strengthened conclusion that it was likely that Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the 20th century were the highest in at least the past 1,300 years . Further reconstructions , including Mann et al. 2008 and , have supported these general conclusions .