Query: ‘We don’t expect record years every year, but the ongoing long-term warming trend is clear.’”

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Global warming controversy <=SEP=> The global warming controversy concerns the public debate over whether global warming is occurring , how much has occurred in modern times , what has caused it , what its effects will be , whether any action should be taken to curb it , and if so what that action should be . In the scientific literature , there is a strong consensus that global surface temperatures have increased in recent decades and that the trend is caused by human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases . No scientific body of national or international standing disagrees with this view , though a few organizations with members in extractive industries hold non-committal positions . Disputes over the key scientific facts of global warming are more prevalent in the media than in the scientific literature , where such issues are treated as resolved , and such disputes are more prevalent in the United States than globally .   Political and popular debate concerning the existence and cause of climate change includes the reasons for the increase seen in the instrumental temperature record , whether the warming trend exceeds normal climatic variations , and whether human activities have contributed significantly to it . Scientists have resolved these questions decisively in favour of the view that the current warming trend exists and is ongoing , that human activity is the cause , and that it is without precedent in at least 2000 years . Public disputes that also reflect scientific debate include estimates of how responsive the climate system might be to any given level of greenhouse gases ( climate sensitivity ) , how global climate change will play out at local and regional scales , and what the consequences of global warming will be .   Global warming remains an issue of widespread political debate , often split along party political lines , especially in the United States . Many of the issues that are settled within the scientific community , such as human responsibility for global warming , remain the subject of politically or economically motivated attempts to downplay , dismiss or deny them -- an ideological phenomenon categorised by academics and scientists as climate change denial . The sources of funding for those involved with climate science -- both supporting and opposing mainstream scientific positions -- have been questioned by both sides . There are debates about the best policy responses to the science , their cost-effectiveness and their urgency . Climate scientists , especially in the United States , have reported official and oil-industry pressure to censor or suppress their work and hide scientific data , with directives not to discuss the subject in public communications . Legal cases regarding global warming , its effects , and measures to reduce it have reached American courts . The fossil fuels lobby has been identified as overtly or covertly supporting efforts to undermine or discredit the scientific consensus on global warming .

Climate change (general concept) <=SEP=> Climate variability includes all the variations in the climate that last longer than individual weather events, whereas the term climate change only refers to those variations that persist for a longer period of time, typically decades or more. In the time since the industrial revolution the climate has increasingly been affected by human activities that are causing global warming and climate change.The climate system receives nearly all of its energy from the sun. The climate system also radiates energy to outer space. The balance of incoming and outgoing energy, and the passage of the energy through the climate system, determines Earth\'s energy budget. When the incoming energy is greater than the outgoing energy, earth\'s energy budget is positive and the climate system is warming. If more energy goes out, the energy budget is negative and earth experiences cooling.\nThe energy moving through Earth\'s climate system finds expression in weather, varying on geographic scales and time. Long-term averages and variability of weather in a region constitute the region\'s climate. Such changes can be the result of "internal variability", when natural processes inherent to the various parts of the climate system alter the distribution of energy. Examples include variability in ocean basins such as the Pacific decadal oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Climate variability can also result from external forcing, when events outside of the climate system\'s components nonetheless produce changes within the system. Examples include changes in solar output and volcanism.\nClimate variability has consequences for sea level changes, plant life, and mass extinctions; it also affects human societies.

Phenology <=SEP=> Phenology is the study of periodic plant and animal life cycle events and how these are influenced by seasonal and interannual variations in climate , as well as habitat factors ( such as elevation ) . The word , coined by the Belgian botanist Charles Morren around 1849 , is derived from the Greek φαίνω ( phainō ) , `` to show , to bring to light , make to appear '' + λόγος ( logos ) , amongst others `` study , discourse , reasoning '' and indicates that phenology has been principally concerned with the dates of first occurrence of biological events in their annual cycle . Examples include the date of emergence of leaves and flowers , the first flight of butterflies and the first appearance of migratory birds , the date of leaf colouring and fall in deciduous trees , the dates of egg-laying of birds and amphibia , or the timing of the developmental cycles of temperate-zone honey bee colonies . In the scientific literature on ecology , the term is used more generally to indicate the time frame for any seasonal biological phenomena , including the dates of last appearance ( e.g. , the seasonal phenology of a species may be from April through September ) .   Because many such phenomena are very sensitive to small variations in climate , especially to temperature , phenological records can be a useful proxy for temperature in historical climatology , especially in the study of climate change and global warming . For example , viticultural records of grape harvests in Europe have been used to reconstruct a record of summer growing season temperatures going back more than 500 years .  In addition to providing a longer historical baseline than instrumental measurements , phenological observations provide high temporal resolution of ongoing changes related to global warming .

Global warming <=SEP=> Global warming , also referred to as climate change , is the observed century-scale rise in the average temperature of the Earth 's climate system and its related effects . Multiple lines of scientific evidence show that the climate system is warming . Many of the observed changes since the 1950s are unprecedented in the instrumental temperature record which extends back to the mid 19th century , and in paleoclimate proxy records over thousands of years .   In 2013 , the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC ) Fifth Assessment Report concluded that `` It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century . '' The largest human influence has been emission of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide , methane and nitrous oxide . Climate model projections summarized in the report indicated that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 0.3 to for their lowest emissions scenario and 2.6 to for the highest emissions scenario . These findings have been recognized by the national science academies of the major industrialized nations and are not disputed by any scientific body of national or international standing .   Future climate change and associated impacts will differ from region to region around the globe . Anticipated effects include warming global temperature , rising sea levels , changing precipitation , and expansion of deserts in the subtropics . Warming is expected to be greater over land than over the oceans and greatest in the Arctic , with the continuing retreat of glaciers , permafrost and sea ice . Other likely changes include more frequent extreme weather events including heat waves , droughts , heavy rainfall with floods and heavy snowfall ; ocean acidification ; and species extinctions due to shifting temperature regimes . Effects significant to humans include the threat to food security from decreasing crop yields and the abandonment of populated areas due to rising sea levels . Because the climate system has a large `` inertia '' and greenhouse gases will stay in the atmosphere for a long time , many of these effects will not only exist for decades or centuries , but will persist for tens of thousands of years .   Possible societal responses to global warming include mitigation by emissions reduction , adaptation to its effects , building systems resilient to its effects , and possible future climate engineering . Most countries are parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change ( UNFCCC ) ,  whose ultimate objective is to prevent dangerous anthropogenic climate change . Parties to the UNFCCC have agreed that deep cuts in emissions are required and that global warming should be limited to well below 2.0 C-change relative to pre-industrial levels , with efforts made to limit warming to 1.5 C-change .   Public reactions to global warming and concern about its effects are also increasing . A global 2015 Pew Research Center report showed a median of 54 % consider it `` a very serious problem '' . There are significant regional differences , with Americans and Chinese ( whose economies are responsible for the greatest annual CO2 emissions ) among the least concerned .

Instrumental temperature record <=SEP=> The instrumental temperature record provides the temperature of Earth 's climate system from the historical network of in situ measurements of surface air temperatures and ocean surface temperatures . Data are collected at thousands of meteorological stations , buoys and ships around the globe . The longest-running temperature record is the Central England temperature data series , that starts in 1659 . The longest-running quasi-global record starts in 1850 . In recent decades more extensive sampling of ocean temperatures at various depths have begun allowing estimates of ocean heat content but these do not form part of the global surface temperature datasets .