Query: Volcanoes, solar variations, clouds, methane, aerosols - these all change the way energy enters and/or leaves our climate.

Relevant passages:
Greenhouse gas <=SEP=> A greenhouse gas ( abbrev . GHG ) is a gas in an atmosphere that absorbs and emits radiation within the thermal infrared range . This process is the fundamental cause of the greenhouse effect . The primary greenhouse gases in Earth 's atmosphere are water vapor , carbon dioxide , methane , nitrous oxide , and ozone . Without greenhouse gases , the average temperature of Earth 's surface would be about -18 ° C , rather than the present average of 15 ° C . In the Solar System , the atmospheres of Venus , Mars and Titan also contain gases that cause a greenhouse effect .   Human activities since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution ( taken as the year 1750 ) have produced a 40 % increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide , from 280 ppm in 1750 to 406 ppm in early 2017 . This increase has occurred despite the uptake of a large portion of the emissions by various natural `` sinks '' involved in the carbon cycle . Anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions ( i.e. , emissions produced by human activities ) come from combustion of fossil fuels , principally coal , oil , and natural gas , along with deforestation , soil erosion and animal agriculture .   It has been estimated that if greenhouse gas emissions continue at the present rate , Earth 's surface temperature could exceed historical values as early as 2047 , with potentially harmful effects on ecosystems , biodiversity and the livelihoods of people worldwide . Recent estimates suggest that on the current emissions trajectory the Earth could pass a threshold of 2 ° C global warming , which the United Nations ' IPCC designated as the upper limit to avoid `` dangerous '' global warming , by 2036 .

Climate system <=SEP=> Earth's climate arises from the interaction of five major climate system components: the atmosphere (air), the hydrosphere (water), the cryosphere (ice and permafrost), the lithosphere (earth's upper rocky layer) and the biosphere (living things). Climate is the average weather, typically over a period of 30 years, and is determined by a combination of processes in the climate system, such as ocean currents and wind patterns. Circulation in the atmosphere and oceans is primarily driven by solar radiation and transports heat from the tropical regions to regions that receive less energy from the Sun. The water cycle also moves energy throughout the climate system. In addition, different chemical elements, necessary for life, are constantly recycled between the different components. The climate system can change due to internal variability and external forcings. These external forcings can be natural, such as variations in solar intensity and volcanic eruptions, or caused by humans. Accumulation of heat-trapping greenhouse gases, mainly being emitted by people burning fossil fuels, is causing global warming. Human activity also releases cooling aerosols, but their net effect is far less than that of greenhouse gases. Changes can be amplified by feedback processes in the different climate system components.

Climate change (general concept) <=SEP=> Climate variability includes all the variations in the climate that last longer than individual weather events, whereas the term climate change only refers to those variations that persist for a longer period of time, typically decades or more. In the time since the industrial revolution the climate has increasingly been affected by human activities that are causing global warming and climate change.The climate system receives nearly all of its energy from the sun. The climate system also radiates energy to outer space. The balance of incoming and outgoing energy, and the passage of the energy through the climate system, determines Earth\'s energy budget. When the incoming energy is greater than the outgoing energy, earth\'s energy budget is positive and the climate system is warming. If more energy goes out, the energy budget is negative and earth experiences cooling.\nThe energy moving through Earth\'s climate system finds expression in weather, varying on geographic scales and time. Long-term averages and variability of weather in a region constitute the region\'s climate. Such changes can be the result of "internal variability", when natural processes inherent to the various parts of the climate system alter the distribution of energy. Examples include variability in ocean basins such as the Pacific decadal oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Climate variability can also result from external forcing, when events outside of the climate system\'s components nonetheless produce changes within the system. Examples include changes in solar output and volcanism.\nClimate variability has consequences for sea level changes, plant life, and mass extinctions; it also affects human societies.

Global cooling <=SEP=> Global cooling was a conjecture during the 1970s of imminent cooling of the Earth 's surface and atmosphere culminating in a period of extensive glaciation . This hypothesis had little support in the scientific community , but gained temporary popular attention due to a combination of a slight downward trend of temperatures from the 1940s to the early 1970s and press reports that did not accurately reflect the full scope of the scientific climate literature , which showed a larger and faster-growing body of literature projecting future warming due to greenhouse gas emissions . The current scientific opinion on climate change is that the Earth has not durably cooled , but underwent global warming throughout the 20th century .

Global warming <=SEP=> Global warming , also referred to as climate change , is the observed century-scale rise in the average temperature of the Earth 's climate system and its related effects . Multiple lines of scientific evidence show that the climate system is warming . Many of the observed changes since the 1950s are unprecedented in the instrumental temperature record which extends back to the mid 19th century , and in paleoclimate proxy records over thousands of years .   In 2013 , the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC ) Fifth Assessment Report concluded that `` It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century . '' The largest human influence has been emission of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide , methane and nitrous oxide . Climate model projections summarized in the report indicated that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 0.3 to for their lowest emissions scenario and 2.6 to for the highest emissions scenario . These findings have been recognized by the national science academies of the major industrialized nations and are not disputed by any scientific body of national or international standing .   Future climate change and associated impacts will differ from region to region around the globe . Anticipated effects include warming global temperature , rising sea levels , changing precipitation , and expansion of deserts in the subtropics . Warming is expected to be greater over land than over the oceans and greatest in the Arctic , with the continuing retreat of glaciers , permafrost and sea ice . Other likely changes include more frequent extreme weather events including heat waves , droughts , heavy rainfall with floods and heavy snowfall ; ocean acidification ; and species extinctions due to shifting temperature regimes . Effects significant to humans include the threat to food security from decreasing crop yields and the abandonment of populated areas due to rising sea levels . Because the climate system has a large `` inertia '' and greenhouse gases will stay in the atmosphere for a long time , many of these effects will not only exist for decades or centuries , but will persist for tens of thousands of years .   Possible societal responses to global warming include mitigation by emissions reduction , adaptation to its effects , building systems resilient to its effects , and possible future climate engineering . Most countries are parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change ( UNFCCC ) ,  whose ultimate objective is to prevent dangerous anthropogenic climate change . Parties to the UNFCCC have agreed that deep cuts in emissions are required and that global warming should be limited to well below 2.0 C-change relative to pre-industrial levels , with efforts made to limit warming to 1.5 C-change .   Public reactions to global warming and concern about its effects are also increasing . A global 2015 Pew Research Center report showed a median of 54 % consider it `` a very serious problem '' . There are significant regional differences , with Americans and Chinese ( whose economies are responsible for the greatest annual CO2 emissions ) among the least concerned .