Query: "the temperature increase in the second half of the 20th century could have taken place in steps driven by major ENSO events" (Jens Raunsø Jensen)

Relevant passages:
20th century <=SEP=> The 20th century was a century that began on   January 1 , 1901 and ended on December 31 , 2000 . It was the tenth and final century of the 2nd millennium . It is distinct from the century known as the 1900s which began on January 1 , 1900 , and ended on December 31 , 1999 .   The 20th century was dominated by a chain of events that heralded significant changes in world history as to redefine the era : World War I and World War II , nuclear power and space exploration , nationalism and decolonization , the Cold War and post-Cold War conflicts ; intergovernmental organizations and cultural homogenization through developments in emerging transportation and communications technology ; poverty reduction and world population growth , awareness of environmental degradation , ecological extinction ; and the birth of the Digital Revolution . It saw great advances in communication and medical technology that by the late 1980s allowed for near-instantaneous worldwide computer communication and genetic modification of life . The term `` short twentieth century '' was coined to represent the events from 1914 to 1991 .   Global total fertility rates , sea level rise and ecological collapses increased ; the resulting competition for land and dwindling resources accelerated deforestation , water depletion . and the mass extinction of half the world 's estimated nine million unique species and wildlife population ; consequences which are now being dealt with . It took all of human history up to 1804 for the world 's population to reach 1 billion ; world population reached an estimated 2 billion in 1927 ; by late 1999 , the global population reached 6 billion . Global literacy averaged 80 % ; global lifespan-averages exceeded 40 + years for the first time in history , with over half achieving 70 + years ( three decades longer than it was a century ago ) .

El Niño–Southern Oscillation <=SEP=> El Niño -- Southern Oscillation ( ENSO ) is an irregularly periodical variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean , affecting much of the tropics and subtropics . The warming phase is known as El Niño and the cooling phase as La Niña . Southern Oscillation is the accompanying atmospheric component , coupled with the sea temperature change : El Niño is accompanied with high , and La Niña with low air surface pressure in the tropical western Pacific . The two periods last several months each ( typically occur every few years ) and their effects vary in intensity .   The two phases relate to the Walker circulation , discovered by Gilbert Walker during the early twentieth century . The Walker circulation is caused by the pressure gradient force that results from a high pressure system over the eastern Pacific Ocean , and a low pressure system over Indonesia . When the Walker circulation weakens or reverses , an El Niño results , causing the ocean surface to be warmer than average , as upwelling of cold water occurs less or not at all . An especially strong Walker circulation causes a La Niña , resulting in cooler ocean temperatures due to increased upwelling .   Mechanisms that cause the oscillation remain under study . The extremes of this climate pattern 's oscillations cause extreme weather ( such as floods and droughts ) in many regions of the world . Developing countries dependent upon agriculture and fishing , particularly those bordering the Pacific Ocean , are the most affected .

Global warming <=SEP=> Global warming , also referred to as climate change , is the observed century-scale rise in the average temperature of the Earth 's climate system and its related effects . Multiple lines of scientific evidence show that the climate system is warming . Many of the observed changes since the 1950s are unprecedented in the instrumental temperature record which extends back to the mid 19th century , and in paleoclimate proxy records over thousands of years .   In 2013 , the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC ) Fifth Assessment Report concluded that `` It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century . '' The largest human influence has been emission of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide , methane and nitrous oxide . Climate model projections summarized in the report indicated that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 0.3 to for their lowest emissions scenario and 2.6 to for the highest emissions scenario . These findings have been recognized by the national science academies of the major industrialized nations and are not disputed by any scientific body of national or international standing .   Future climate change and associated impacts will differ from region to region around the globe . Anticipated effects include warming global temperature , rising sea levels , changing precipitation , and expansion of deserts in the subtropics . Warming is expected to be greater over land than over the oceans and greatest in the Arctic , with the continuing retreat of glaciers , permafrost and sea ice . Other likely changes include more frequent extreme weather events including heat waves , droughts , heavy rainfall with floods and heavy snowfall ; ocean acidification ; and species extinctions due to shifting temperature regimes . Effects significant to humans include the threat to food security from decreasing crop yields and the abandonment of populated areas due to rising sea levels . Because the climate system has a large `` inertia '' and greenhouse gases will stay in the atmosphere for a long time , many of these effects will not only exist for decades or centuries , but will persist for tens of thousands of years .   Possible societal responses to global warming include mitigation by emissions reduction , adaptation to its effects , building systems resilient to its effects , and possible future climate engineering . Most countries are parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change ( UNFCCC ) ,  whose ultimate objective is to prevent dangerous anthropogenic climate change . Parties to the UNFCCC have agreed that deep cuts in emissions are required and that global warming should be limited to well below 2.0 C-change relative to pre-industrial levels , with efforts made to limit warming to 1.5 C-change .   Public reactions to global warming and concern about its effects are also increasing . A global 2015 Pew Research Center report showed a median of 54 % consider it `` a very serious problem '' . There are significant regional differences , with Americans and Chinese ( whose economies are responsible for the greatest annual CO2 emissions ) among the least concerned .