Query: More than 100 climate models over the past 30 years did not predict what actually happened because it was assumed carbon dioxide had the pivotal role in driving climate change and that the effects of clouds, back-radiation and the sun were trivial.

Relevant passages:
Attribution of recent climate change <=SEP=> Attribution of recent climate change is the effort to scientifically ascertain mechanisms responsible for recent climate changes on Earth , commonly known as ` global warming ' . The effort has focused on changes observed during the period of instrumental temperature record , when records are most reliable ; particularly in the last 50 years , when human activity has grown fastest and observations of the troposphere have become available . The dominant mechanisms are anthropogenic , i.e. , the result of human activity . They are :  increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases  global changes to land surface , such as deforestation  increasing atmospheric concentrations of aerosols .   There are also natural mechanisms for variation including climate oscillations , changes in solar activity , and volcanic activity .   According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC ) , it is `` extremely likely '' that human influence was the dominant cause of global warming between 1951 and 2010 . The IPCC defines `` extremely likely '' as indicating a probability of 95 to 100 % , based on an expert assessment of all the available evidence .   Multiple lines of evidence support attribution of recent climate change to human activities :  A basic physical understanding of the climate system : greenhouse gas concentrations have increased and their warming properties are well-established .  Historical estimates of past climate changes suggest that the recent changes in global surface temperature are unusual .  Computer-based climate models are unable to replicate the observed warming unless human greenhouse gas emissions are included .  Natural forces alone ( such as solar and volcanic activity ) can not explain the observed warming .   The IPCC 's attribution of recent global warming to human activities is a view shared by the scientific community , and is also supported by 196 other scientific organizations worldwide ( see also : scientific opinion on climate change ) .

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change <=SEP=> The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC ) is a scientific and intergovernmental body under the auspices of the United Nations , set up at the request of member governments , dedicated to the task of providing the world with an objective , scientific view of climate change and its political and economic impacts . It was first established in 1988 by two United Nations organizations , the World Meteorological Organization ( WMO ) and the United Nations Environment Programme ( UNEP ) , and later endorsed by the United Nations General Assembly through Resolution 43/53 . Membership of the IPCC is open to all members of the WMO and UNEP .  The IPCC produces reports that support the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change ( UNFCCC ) , which is the main international treaty on climate change . The ultimate objective of the UNFCCC is to `` stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic -LSB- i.e. , human-induced -RSB- interference with the climate system '' . IPCC reports cover `` the scientific , technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change , its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation . ''   The IPCC does not carry out its own original research , nor does it do the work of monitoring climate or related phenomena itself . The IPCC bases its assessment on the published literature , which includes peer-reviewed and non-peer-reviewed sources .   Thousands of scientists and other experts contribute ( on a voluntary basis , without payment from the IPCC ) to writing and reviewing reports , which are then reviewed by governments . IPCC reports contain a `` Summary for Policymakers '' , which is subject to line-by-line approval by delegates from all participating governments . Typically this involves the governments of more than 120 countries .   The IPCC provides an internationally accepted authority on climate change , producing reports which have the agreement of leading climate scientists and the consensus of participating governments . The 2007 Nobel Peace Prize was shared , in equal parts , between the IPCC and Al Gore .

Global warming <=SEP=> Global warming , also referred to as climate change , is the observed century-scale rise in the average temperature of the Earth 's climate system and its related effects . Multiple lines of scientific evidence show that the climate system is warming . Many of the observed changes since the 1950s are unprecedented in the instrumental temperature record which extends back to the mid 19th century , and in paleoclimate proxy records over thousands of years .   In 2013 , the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC ) Fifth Assessment Report concluded that `` It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century . '' The largest human influence has been emission of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide , methane and nitrous oxide . Climate model projections summarized in the report indicated that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 0.3 to for their lowest emissions scenario and 2.6 to for the highest emissions scenario . These findings have been recognized by the national science academies of the major industrialized nations and are not disputed by any scientific body of national or international standing .   Future climate change and associated impacts will differ from region to region around the globe . Anticipated effects include warming global temperature , rising sea levels , changing precipitation , and expansion of deserts in the subtropics . Warming is expected to be greater over land than over the oceans and greatest in the Arctic , with the continuing retreat of glaciers , permafrost and sea ice . Other likely changes include more frequent extreme weather events including heat waves , droughts , heavy rainfall with floods and heavy snowfall ; ocean acidification ; and species extinctions due to shifting temperature regimes . Effects significant to humans include the threat to food security from decreasing crop yields and the abandonment of populated areas due to rising sea levels . Because the climate system has a large `` inertia '' and greenhouse gases will stay in the atmosphere for a long time , many of these effects will not only exist for decades or centuries , but will persist for tens of thousands of years .   Possible societal responses to global warming include mitigation by emissions reduction , adaptation to its effects , building systems resilient to its effects , and possible future climate engineering . Most countries are parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change ( UNFCCC ) ,  whose ultimate objective is to prevent dangerous anthropogenic climate change . Parties to the UNFCCC have agreed that deep cuts in emissions are required and that global warming should be limited to well below 2.0 C-change relative to pre-industrial levels , with efforts made to limit warming to 1.5 C-change .   Public reactions to global warming and concern about its effects are also increasing . A global 2015 Pew Research Center report showed a median of 54 % consider it `` a very serious problem '' . There are significant regional differences , with Americans and Chinese ( whose economies are responsible for the greatest annual CO2 emissions ) among the least concerned .