Paper:
Reinforcement Learning (RL) can model complex behavior policies for goaldirected sequential decision making tasks. A hallmark of RL algorithms is Temporal Difference (TD) learning: value function for the current state is moved towards a bootstrapped target that is estimated using the next state's value function. λ-returns define the target of the RL agent as a weighted combination of rewards estimated by using multiple many-step look-aheads. Although mathematically tractable, the use of exponentially decaying weighting of n-step returns based targets in λ-returns is a rather ad-hoc design choice. Our major contribution is that we propose a generalization of λ-returns called Confidence-based Autodidactic Returns (CAR), wherein the RL agent learns the weighting of the n-step returns in an end-to-end manner. In contrast to λ-returns wherein the RL agent is restricted to use an exponentially decaying weighting scheme, CAR allows the agent to learn to decide how much it wants to weigh the n-step returns based targets. Our experiments, in addition to showing the efficacy of CAR, also empirically demonstrate that using sophisticated weighted mixtures of multi-step returns (like CAR and λ-returns) considerably outperforms the use of n-step returns. We perform our experiments on the Asynchronous Advantage Actor Critic (A3C) algorithm in the Atari 2600 domain.

Review:
This paper revisits the idea of exponentially weighted lambda-returns at the heart of TD algorithms. The basic idea is that instead of geometrically weighting the n-step returns we should instead weight them according to the agent's own estimate of its confidence in it's learned value function. The paper empirically evaluates this idea on Atari games with deep non-linear state representations, compared to state-of-the-art baselines.
This paper is below the threshold because there are issues with the : 1) motivation, 2) the technical details, and (3) the empirical results.
The paper begins by stating that the exponential weighting of lambda returns is ad-hoc and unjustified. I would say the idea is well justified in several ways. First the lambda return definition lends itself to online approximations that achieve a fully incremental online form with linear computation and nearly as good performance of the off-line version. Second, decades of empirical results illustrating good performance of TD compared with MC methods. And an extensive literature of theoretical results. The paper claims that the exponential has been noted to be ad-hoc, please provide a reference for this.
There have been several works that have noted that lambda can and perhaps should be changed as a function of state (Sutton and Barto, White and White [1], TD-Gammon). In fact, such works even not that lambda should be related to confidence. The paper should work harder to motivate why adapting lambda as a function of state---which has been studied---is not sufficient.
I don't completely understand the objective. Returns with higher confidence should be weighted higher, according to the confidence estimate around the value function estimate as a function of state? With longer returns, n>>1, the role of the value function in the target is down-weighted by gamma^n---meaning its accuracy is of little relevance to the target. How does your formalism take this into account? The basic idea of the lambda return assumes TD targets are better than MC targets due to variance, which place more weight on shorter returns.
I addition I don't understand how learning confidence of the value function has a realizable target. We do not get supervised targets of the confidence of our value estimates. What is your network updating toward?
The work of Konidaris et al [1] is a more appropriate reference for this work (rather than the Thomas reference provided). Your paper does not very clearly different itself from Konidaris's work here. Please expand on this.
The experiments have some issues. One issue is that basic baselines could more clearly illustrate what is going on. There are two such baselines: random fixed weightings of the n-step returns, and persisting with the usual weighting but changing lambda on each time step (either randomly or according to some decay schedule). The first baseline is a sanity check to ensure that you are not observing some random effect. The second checks to see if your alternative weighting is simply approximating the benefits of changing lambda with time or state.
I would say the current results indicate the conventional approach to TD is working well if not better than the new one. Looking at fig 3, its clear the kangaroo is skewing the results, and that overall the new method is performing worse. This is further conflated by fig7 which attempts to illustrate the quality of the learned value functions. In Kangaroo, the domain where your method does best, the l2 error is worse. On the other hand in sea quest and space invaders, where your method does worse, the l2 error is better. These results seem conflicting, or at least raise more questions than they answer.
[1] A Greedy Approach to Adapting the Trace Parameter for Temporal Difference Learning . Adam White and Martha White. Autonomous Agents and Multi-agent Systems (AAMAS), 2016
[2] G. D. Konidaris, S. Niekum, and P. S. Thomas. TDγ: Re-evaluating complex backups in temporal difference learning. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 24, pages 2402–2410. 2011.