Paper:
Bayesian Dyadic Trees and Histograms for Regression
Many machine learning tools for regression are based on recursive partitioning of the covariate space into smaller regions, where the regression function can be estimated locally. Among these, regression trees and their ensembles have demonstrated impressive empirical performance. In this work, we shed light on the machinery behind Bayesian variants of these methods. In particular, we study Bayesian regression histograms, such as Bayesian dyadic trees, in the simple regression case with just one predictor. We focus on the reconstruction of regression surfaces that are piecewise constant, where the number of jumps is unknown. We show that with suitably designed priors, posterior distributions concentrate around the true step regression function at a near-minimax rate. These results do not require the knowledge of the true number of steps, nor the width of the true partitioning cells. Thus, Bayesian dyadic regression trees are fully adaptive and can recover the true piecewise regression function nearly as well as if we knew the exact number and location of jumps. Our results constitute the first step towards understanding why Bayesian trees and their ensembles have worked so well in practice. As an aside, we discuss prior distributions on balanced interval partitions and how they relate to an old problem in geometric probability. Namely, we relate the probability of covering the circumference of a circle with random arcs whose endpoints are confined to a grid, a new variant of the original problem.

Review:
This paper analyses concentration rates (speed of posterior concentration) for Bayesian regression histograms and demonstrates that under certain conditions and priors, the posterior distribution concentrates around the true step regression function at the minimax rate.
The notation is clear. Different approximating functions are considered, starting from the set of step functions supported on equally sized intervals, up to more flexible functions supported on balanced partitions. The most important part of the paper is building the prior on the space of approximating functions.
The paper is relatively clear and brings up an interesting first theoretical result regarding speed of posterior concentration for Bayesian regression histograms. The authors assume very simple conditions (one predictor, piecewise-constant functions), but this is necessary in order to get a first analysis.
Proof seems correct, although it is out of this reviewer's expertise. This reviewer wonders why the authors did not considered sending this work to the Annals of Statistics instead of NIPS, given the type of analysis and provided results.
Minor:
- You might want to check the reference of Bayesian Hierarchical Clustering (Heller et.al, 2005) and the literature of infinite mixture of experts.
- l. 116: You mention recommendations for the choice of c_K in Section 3.3, but this Section does not exist.
- Assumption 1 is referred to multiple times in page 4, but it is not defined until page 5.
Writing (typos):
- l. 83: we will
- l. 231: mass near zero
- l. 296: (b) not clear (extend to multi-dimensional?)