Paper:
Certain biological neurons demonstrate a remarkable capability to optimally compress the history of sensory inputs while being maximally informative about the future. In this work, we investigate if the same can be said of artificial neurons in recurrent neural networks (RNNs) trained with maximum likelihood. In experiments on two datasets, restorative Brownian motion and a hand-drawn sketch dataset, we find that RNNs are sub-optimal in the information plane. Instead of optimally compressing past information, they extract additional information that is not relevant for predicting the future. We show how constraining past information by injecting noise into the hidden state can improve the ability of RNNs to extract predictive information for both maximum likelihood and contrastive loss training.

Review:
This paper certainly poses an interesting question: How well do RNNs compress the past while retaining relevant information about the future. In order to quantitatively answer this question, the authors suggest to look at (the optimal solutions of) the Information Bottleneck Lagrangian (IBL). The investigated RNNs need to solve the task of next-step prediction, which can be used to evaluate the IBL. In the paper, the (deterministic) hidden state h is transformed through simple additive Gaussian noise into a stochastic representation which then is utilized to compute the IBL. In general the IBL is not tractable and hence the paper uses approximate computations.
I definitely like the underlying question of the paper. Yet, to me it seems not ready for publication. For one, the presented experimental results look interesting but the suggested method for improvement through adding noise to the latents (during training) is too much of handwaving for such a fundamental problem. Second, shouldn't the results on the BHC be quite surprising in terms of LSTMs performance? Why is that, usually LSTM (or GRU) deliver excellent performance in typical (supervised) sequential tasks. Third, the task itself seems not well described, it seems to be next-step prediction, but how are more future predictions generated -- these seem to be not considered in the equation, but probably should when talking about 'retaining relevant information for the future'? Fourth, recently some researchers started to question whether 'reconstruction' is a good idea in order to learn generative-like models, for example you cite van den Oord 2018. How would such models perform in your metric.
A final remark with respect to your citation for eq. 4, I think you meant Barber, Agakov, "The IM algorithm...", 2003?