postbot/aeslc_kw huggingface dataset:
Subject: Estimation of Bankruptcy Probabilities Using Bayesian Approach


Estimation of Bankruptcy Probabilities Using Bayesian Approach  Yongdai Kim and Gunhee Lee Department of Statistics, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, Yongin, Korea College of Business Administration, Sogang University, Seoul, Korea  Abstract Bankruptcy probabilities of private companies are estimated via Bayesian approach.
The proportional hazard models are used with time to bankruptcy as a dependent variable.
Several financial ratios are included as independent variables.
MCMC algorithm is used to obtain the posterior distribution.
Finally, bankruptcy probabilities of companies are predicted using the predictive probabilities.
Keywords: Proportional Hazard Model, Bayesian analysis, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, bankruptcy prediction model.
Subject: EFCU's Student Loan Workshop


Skip out on Student Loans 101 with EFCU... and you could be skipping out on easy money.
Learn the best way to apply for loans & grants, how to get the most money, and tips on university requirements at our  Student Loan Workshop  Tuesday, February 12 12:00 - 1:00 p.m. Doubletree Post Oak, Forum Room 2001 Post Oak Blvd.
Complimentary parking is available in the garage adjacent to the hotel.
RSVP to joy.wagman@enron.com.
Subject: Restructuring Today Discount


In a recent discussion with Walter Coffer, he stated that there may be an opportunity for a "shared savings" for a subscription to Restructuring Today.
He thought Restructuring Today was better than the standard power industry news offerings because of the investigations beyond just the news.
The URL for the website is:  www.enernetdaily.com/restruc.pdf.
Attached is an Excel spreadsheet which shows the break points for a corporate subscription.
If  3 people subscribe, it is cheaper to get a 5 person subscription.
If  30 subscribe, it is cheaper to get an unlimited corporate subscription.
Please let me know whether or not this service would be of value to you.
If so, send your accounting information and your email address so that all of the subscriptions can be turned in together to take advantage of the discount.
Regards,
Subject: Rice Energy derivatives class book/notes


Vince,  As per our short conversation a while ago, I would like to see if I could get a copy of the material you used for your Energy Derivatives Class at Rice this Spring.
Please let me know if it is still ok to get a copy of these.
Thanks,
Subject: thanks


Dear Mr.Vince Kaminski,  It was very nice to see you in my interview.
Thank you very much for your time and questions.
Through my interview process, I got to know Enron better and saw many excited things.
I think my experience and skill would be a good fit for Enron and be able to make contribution with all my exposures.
Thanks again for
Subject: Liquidity Model


Vince,     IT had informed me that you were interested in our liquidity margin model over the weekend.
Here attached is a brief synopsis of the workings of the model, including methodology, a validation example, and web-page front ends.
It has been in use daily for the past month and a half, after going through a prototyping and implementational phase.
Please let me know if you have any questions,  Naveen
Subject: MSCF Advisory Board Meeting


All,  You are invited to attend the next Advisory Group meeting for Carnegie Mellon's Computational Finance Program.
It will be held on December 12, 2001, at the Club Quarters-Midtown, located at 40, West 45th Street.
The schedule is as follows:  Cocktails: 5:30pm Dinner: 6:00pm
Subject: Launch of Bauer College Energy Committee - November 14, 2001, 5PM -  7PM


We want to personally thank you for agreeing to join the Energy Committee of the C.T.
Bauer College of Business Dean's Advisory Board (Current Committee Members Attached).
The Committee is a terrific group of people with a diverse background that will represent exceedingly well the needs of the Houston energy community.
As a member of the Energy Committee, you also become a member of the Dean's Advisory Board, which is having its next meeting on January 17, 2002.
This Dean's Advisory Board Meeting will include the grand opening ceremonies for the new AIM Center for Investment Management in the Bauer College.
Please mark your calendar for January 17, 2002 for this important event.
We are delighted and excited about the Energy Market Center of Excellence and look forward to your leadership in guiding and shaping its rapid evolution (Draft Business Plan attached).
Our first meeting of the Energy Committee on November 14, 2001 will be held at the Bauer College of Business - Melcher Hall in the AIM Center Board Room, which is on the first floor as you enter the building, from 5:00 PM to 7:00PM (Agenda Attached).
The parking gate will be open for your convenience.
We believe the role you will be playing (Energy Committee Charter attached) in integrating the Energy business community with the University of Houston and Bauer College could well be the model for the next generation metropolitan research university.
We look forward to seeing you on November 14th and thanks again
Subject: Tasks in the second half of this year


FYI: a very brief list of works I have done since June (in the second half of this year).
Finished Collateralized Bandwidth Obligation (CBO) default model (with Xelerator group and Amitava) Movie Gross Box office forecasting.
(with Martin, Ken, Erik) EOL trading game (with Bob and Erik) Pipeline options (with Krishna) Ravi's put swaption model for data storage (with Zimin) EBS Meet me room discussion (with Martin) Fronterra plant valuation: (with Alex) Modifying ERCOT's LP price lower-bound model.
(with Martin) Longitude : analyze if we should do deal with them (with Joe, Vasant, Rakesh, Vince) Valuating PedrickTown plants: (with Alex) How to buy/sell power forward when we own generators and load.
(with Vasant, Bob) Presentations at INFORMS conferences  Currently Doing/Pending: Psim:  full requirement dispatch module: improve ramping constraint model.
Brazil CEPEL: analyze why their method is bad and come up with a new simpler & better one.
Improve ERCOT LP price lower-bound model by adding shift factors ERCOT Transmission right (TCR) bidding strategy PGN Gas Storage + unit commitment: Michael Shilmoeller, Brett Sim, Erik Shaw (just started) Collaborate with Universities: CMU, Michigan, Arizona (just started) EOL Bid-ask algorithm.
(pending)  Need to do: Have not started: How to hedge load optimally Extension to Doug's second problem: Finding optimal interruption (or curtailment) policy (When to interrupt customer's loads.)
Subject: Seminars


Vince,   Two recruiting seminars this week for the Finance Department that may be of interest to you.
(1)Thursday, November 29:  Evgenia Portniaguina (University of Utah).
She is completing here Ph.D., and is one of their strongest students ever.
She is originally from Russia with a BS in Exploration Geophysics (4.0 GPA), Oil & Gas Academy, Russia.
She will now speak on a Finanicial Market MicroStructure topic, but she could be of great interest from the Energy Institute point of view.
Her seminar is in Room 256, Melcher Hall, 10:30 -12 noon.
Subject: EPRM


Hi Vince,   Hope you are well?
Les enjoyed his visit with you  very much by the sound of things.
I was wondering if you could have a quick look over  the 2 pages attached.
Robin is looking for something in the next day or so and  this is as far as I've got today.
The article is going to be on spark spread  options.
The material attached is the opening blurb - we'll add some analysis  under different models tomorrow - I just wanted to make sure you are comfortable  with the general comments we had written so far.
If you want to add anything  then that would be great - pls feel free to add a few points that we can expand  on.
Thanks a lot.
Its a shame you can't be here for the  Risk conference in a few weeks, we could have had a reunion dinner!
Best regards.
Subject: PSIM progress


Hi all,  We have updated the PSIM model.
The current version can handle more realistic operational constraints by selecting "Semi Optimal Dispatch" toggle for Dispatch  Mode.
This dispatch mode considers minimum up hours, minimum down hours, ramp-up hours, start up cost, fuel switching cost, forward looking within a  user-specified period of time.
It also allows user to enter their estimate of ISO  curtailment on their generation capacity by month in "Asset" page.
You need to put Frontera.dll in your C:\Winnet directory, and the spreadsheet and help files in one directory of your choice.
Alex
Subject: The 2001 Electric Market Forecasting Conference has been  rescheduled for November 12th & 13th, 2001


We have rescheduled the 2001 Electric Market Forecasting Conference for November 12th & 13th, 2001.
This has been a difficult time for all of us and we are grateful for the overwhelming support offered by our speakers toward the goal of rescheduling this conference.
To assist with travel and hotel planning the following items have been attached:          Conference Agenda          Activities in and around the Columbia Gorge  Accommodations  ole0.bmp We ask that you make your own reservations at Skamania Lodge or the Columbia River Inn in Cascade Locks, OREGON, next to the Bridge of the Gods.
Skamania Lodge.
To reserve a room, call 1-800-221-7117.
Mention "EPIS" to get the block room rate.
Best Western Columbia River Inn at Cascade Locks, OREGON.
This Inn is just five minutes away--across the Bridge of the Gods on the Oregon side of the Columbia River.
To reserve a room, call direct 1-800-595-7108.
Mention "EPIS " to get block room rate.
Subject: Prospective hire


Dear Vince I know that you are always looking for good  prospective hires so I am brin= ging this to your attention.
Armando Ugarte who is  a former Ph.D. student = of mine is currently working for i2 in Texas but told me  recently that he = is considering a career move.
Armando has a very interesting  background co= mbining excellent training in economics and operations research  with exten= sive practical experience in IT working as software architect and  applicat= ion developer for HP, Oracle and i2.
I know Armando for over 14 years  sinc= e his undergraduate studies in our department and was always fascinated by =  his broad spectrum of talents and experience.
I am enclosing his resume.
I=  do  not exactly know what his immediate plans are and if he has already an= other job  lined up.
He told me ,however , that he would like to make bette= r use of his  education.
He took the job at i2 after deciding, for personal=  reasons, to  repatriate from Colombia where he held a faculty position.
I = highly recommend  him as a hard worker, solid and mature researcher and a v= ery likable person.
If  you are interested you should contact him directly.=  His contact info is on his  resume.
Regards, Shmuel.
Subject: Presentation for the Paris Rick Conference - 11/5


Vince:  Agelica from Risk is calling regarding your presentation for the Nov 5 Risk Conference in Paris.
She needs your presentation today in order to get it to the printers to be included in the distribution package.
Do you have it yet?
Subject: Vince Kaminski's presentation for Paris


Angelica:  I apologize, but I spoke with Vince and he is unable to get his presentation to you as requested.
We will have to make copies and mail them.
Please let me know where to  mail them.
He will email you a copy as soon as he can.
Regards,
Subject: SEC depostion


Bob,  I am writing to you to confirm my voice-mail message regarding the SEC deposition.
I decided that I don't really  need a counsel to assist me at my deposition before the Commission.
I may retain a lawyer of my own choice to give me general  advice about the procedures and I shall send you the bill for reimbursement of expenses.
My decision should not be interpreted as a statement about Mr. Levy's qualifications.
I found him to be an exceptionally competent lawyer.
My only regret is that I shall not be given an opportunity to spend more time with him and learn from his experience.
You may recall that  I have indicated to you a few weeks ago that my intention was to waive my right to a counsel.
This was before I had the pleasure to meet Mr. Levy in person.
I am sending you the copy of my fax to the SEC as an attachment to a separate message.
Vince
Subject: REVISED REMINDER: Feb 1 Industry Collaborative on Developing      Energy Standards Organization in NYC


Attached are the registration form and  agenda for Friday's February 1 industry meeting in New  York City.
This meeting is a  continuation of Monday's Jan   28 industry collaborative at DOE to develop a "single" consensus standards  setting organization by March 15, as directed by FERC.
Provided below is the  matrix developed by industry at Monday's meeting identifying  the areas of similarities and differences between the various models and  proposals.
We look for you to review the matrix internally and be prepared to  advance the discussion and start making the hard decisions in New  York.
We strongly encourage all companies to participate in New York  and the subsequent industry meetings.
FERC staff will present  in the morning and industry will begin discussions and negotiations thereafter.
FERC is holding its Northeast Energy Infrastructure Adequacy Conference on  Thursday, January 31 at the same Helmsley Park Lane Hotel.
It was a  concerted decision to hold this meeting in New York City to allow for  companies to maximize their trip North and participate in both meetings, if  desired.
Please fax or e-mail the registration forms to jmastin @eei.org  or the fax number provided on the registration form.
We have registered  close to 75 persons for this meeting and need an approximate count of attendees  to ensure adequate meeting space for all participants.
If you do not forward the  form by COB Thursday, please contact us by phone and bring a completed  registration form to the meeting.
Subject: JPM


Tod,  I have no interest in the JPM product.
I like to manage my own investments as  a hobby (expensive as it may be).
Vince
Subject: Job posting


I am teaching a class at Rice and one of my very bright students sent her  resume in response to this posting.
Do you know who posted this job?
Vince Kaminski
Subject: Enron in India


Mark,  Two points.
1.
You probably know about it already.
ABHAY MEHTA, the author of "Power  Play", is on a tour of the United States.
Please, take a look at the information about a  meeting last Sunday  at Stanford University.
The web site address is  given below.
My wife went to the presentation and told me it was quite critical about Enron.
About 40  people attended.
2.
I was approached by John Martin, a professor of finance at Baylor, to  write jointly an academic paper on Enron for a financial journal.
He wanted to work on an  article on EBS.
I have suggested a different topic: Enron - Case Study of a Company  Reinventing Itself.
I made a few points to John:  a. Enron's evolution did not just happen  by accident.
It was a result of implementation of a far-reaching strategy developed by the management.
b.
In the process of its evolution Enron changed its environment.
I came up  with a term "proactive evolution", as opposed to "reactive evolution."
c. The strategy included many elements, including emphasis on the quality of human resources, changing corporate attitudes to risk taking and employee empowerment.
d. There are very few companies that match Enron's experience and  accomplishemnts.
The paper could become a standard reading at the MBA courses on corporate  strategy and would help greatly our recruiting efforts.
Writing the paper would require interviews with Ken, Jeff and a few other key  players.
Let me know what you thing about it.
John is really excited about this paper.
Vince
Subject: Budget


Becky,  I am sending you two spreadsheets.
Headcount gives  the allocations by major business units.
Please, see the sheet Allocations.
Line 83 gives you the  percentages you can use.
Budget  spreadsheet gives the budget projections.
The sheet Allocations has  been modified to  include charges to RAC and GRM.
I had to modify extensively  the sheet Detail to account for the size of the group (as compared with 25 rows available to  list the employees in the original spreadsheet).
Please, check the logic of my  modifications (I hope I copied all the formulas correctly).
I had to assume a bonus number.
I shall work on allocations by different business units within ENA and GRM  but it's chasing a moving target.
It changes from month to month.
I shall be gone for the next 4 business days.
Please, call me and leave a  message on my voice mail if there is any question.
I shall be listening to my voice  messages.
Sorry if there are any problems.
I have to rush to catch my plane.
Vince  P.S.
Thanks for all the help.
I owe you lunch.
Subject: Spring 2001 Conference Participation by Jeffrey K. Skilling


Sherri,  Our friends at the University of Texas are planning a conference on energy economics and finance in February of next year.
They would like very much to  have  Jeff Skilling as a keynote speaker.
Given our good, long-term  relationship with UT,  I would recommend that Jeff speaks at this conference I talked to Prof. Ehud Ronn a few times about this conference and  I think that this will be  an excellent forum to present Enron's accomplishments and agenda for the future.
I shall send a separate message to Jeff about this request.
Vince
Subject: Dinner with Kirstee


Shirley,  We want to take Kirstee to dinner on Wed next week to Brennan's at 6:00.
4 persons, reservation in my name, TT, GM, VK, KH.
Vince
Subject: A chapter to be published in a book by Clewlow/Strickland


Darrell,  Grant Masson, Ronnie Chahal and myself made a contribution to the book on energy derivatives to be published soon in Australia (a book by Clewlow and Strickland).
Given our growing workload and responsibilities, the quality of the paper is  less than satisfactory.
I would like to make sure that there are no obvious and embarrassing  errors in what we submit.
I would appreciate if you could  take a quick look at the chapter and give us the feedback (under the same arrangement as in the previous cases).
Thanks for looking at our storage model.
I shall give you a call within the next few days to update you on our work and developments at Enron.
Vince will start his senior year in 6 weeks.
He wants to graduate and look for work: he thinks getting an advanced degree in his field makes no economic sense.
He spent the summer building his own computer (1000 MHz clock speed).
I was the unskilled immigrant worker toiling under his management.
I hope everything is well at home and that your wife's company is doing great.
Regards.
Subject: Confidential: valuation of collateralized mortgages


I am forwarding to you a paper by some UT professors.
They approached us about the possibility of licensing this technology to us.
Under the nondisclosure agreement, we have to give them an answer in 90 days and tell them why we don't want to use it (if we decline the offer).
Please, don't circulate the paper to other members of the group without  letting them know that it's confidential and should not leave Enron.
In any case, please, let me know who else saw the paper.
We should make sure that the circulation is limited so that it does not leak out.
Vince
Subject: Names


Sheila,  I  am attaching the list of people who are top retention priority.
The list is in the spreadsheet and the names are in the highlighted cell (red background).
I am also attaching the resume you asked for.
Vince
Subject: EOL


Dan,  I am forwarding you the summary of the information for EOL that we can  provide.
I shall talk to RISK magazine to settle the copyright issues.
Vince
Subject: Brad Romine


Celeste,  I was under the impression I sent you a message regarding Brad Romine but I cannot find a copy in my msg folder.
There might have been a glitch in the  CC-mail and the message did not go through and wasn't  stored.
I wanted to make the following points:  1.
Brad will not show up on March 15.
He is still working on his dot-com  business and wants to pursue this opportunity.
2.
My recommendation is that we should draw a line in the sand.
Either Brad  or a stipend refund check should show up on March 15.
3.
I told Brad that  a failure to show up on March 15 will not imperil his  future employment opportunities with Enron.
We just need clarity and ability to plan our human resource  needs.
If he decides to re-apply at some point in the future, we shall not hold his  decision  to pursue him  entrepreneurial plans against him.
Please, let me  know what you think.
Vince
Subject: Sevile


Norma,  I would like to proceed on two fronts with Sevile (both H1 visa and the Green Card.
I shall rather work hard to keep my employees happy here than try to attach them to the job through immigration arrangements.
They can see through such arrangements and it de-motivates them.
Vince
Subject: Wednesday


Giuseppe  The dinner is scheduled, as I have mentioned, to you at 7:00 p.m. Wednesday at Il Fornaio, Canaletto Room.
Both you and Eric are welcome to join us.
Vince
Subject: Summer internship


Hello,  Sorry for a delay in getting back to you.
We would like very much to offer you a summer internship.
Please, let me know if you are interested.
Vince Kaminski
Subject: Slides for Wed presentation


I am sending you the slides from our presentation for Dave Delainey.
Please, update the slides, to account for the reorg and growth of the group.
I shall represent Maureen.
Please, make decisions about involving additional people in this project.
Vince
Subject: ALP presentation


Christie,  Shirley reserved room 49C1 for Monday 4:00 p.m.  presentation.
Can you  issue the formal invitation to our guests with the game/dinner details?
I don't have all the details regarding the Enron Field box and time.
I am out most of the day on Wednesday but we can discuss the details on Thursday.
Hope to see you on Saturday at  the concert.
Vince
Subject: picks and publishers


John.
I want to ask you for a favor.
Can you help this fellow (who is negotiating a contract with John Wiley by giving him some advice?
Vince
Subject: A quant


Bryan,  Did you have a chance to take a look at the resume I sent you?
He looked like a great guy for your group.
Vince
Subject: FERC meeting: SE RTO


Judge McCartney presented her report on the SE RTO mediation to FERC last Wed.
Her recommendation was for the Grid model: Transco on top/Independent Market Admin.
(IMA) in the RTO (model presented by GridSouth, Grid Florida and Entergy) rather than Southern's model (Gridco on top, transmission owners and ind.
transcos under).
The Commissioners did not make a decision, but stated that they planned to address the SE RTO at the next Commission meeting on Nov 7 (after they have received comments on RTO week).
The judge discussed the biggest obstacles to public power agreeing to the Grid model:  Southern gave them 100% transmission recovery on Day 1 and the Grids had a phase-in (pursuant to the Commission's previous orders in GridFlorida).
I think that many of the publics also liked the fact that Southern gave them full grandfathering of current contracts.
Chair Wood had questions about the split of responsibilities between the transmission-owning transco on top and the IMA and about the fiduciary duties of the transco board.
The judge stated that most publics wanted a non-profit ISO on top.
When Massey stated that most states wanted the traditional non-profit ISO, Wood said: "that would put the cabosh on this model," then asked why the publics don't like the operating agreements with the RTO.
There was discussion about concerns that the transco would favor transmission solutions over gen.  Massey pointed out that the NE ISOs simply don't want their models changed, so that should not keep the Commission from approving the transco-type model.
Breathitt stated that cost/benefit analyses were important, especially for this region of low cost power.
Brownell stated that the Commission needed to act quickly because the market was already putting capital into transcos.