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I want to start off by saying, Houston, we have a problem.
我首先想说的是,休斯顿,我们遇到了问题。
我想从这里开始,休斯顿,我们有个问题。
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We're entering a second generation of no progress in terms of human flight in space. In fact, we've regressed.
我们正在进入人类太空飞行毫无进展的第二代。事实上,我们已经倒退了。
我们已经有二十年没有进展了 在人类太空飞行方面。事实上,我们退步了。
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We stand a very big chance of losing our ability to inspire our youth to go out and continue this very important thing that we as a species have always done.
我们很有可能失去激励年轻人走出去并继续我们作为一个物种一直在做的这一非常重要的事情的能力。
我们非常有可能失去鼓励年轻人的能力, 让他们走出去,继续做这非常重要的事情 做我们人类已经做了的事情。
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And that is, instinctively we've gone out and climbed over difficult places, went to more hostile places, and found out later, maybe to our surprise, that that's the reason we survived.
也就是说,我们本能地走出去,爬过困难的地方,去到更充满敌意的地方,后来发现,也许让我们惊讶的是,这就是我们幸存下来的原因。
那就是,我们已经本能地走出去 翻过困难之地,去往更加困难的地方, 之后发现,也许会令我们吃惊,这些就是我们生存下来的理由。
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And I feel very strongly that it's not good enough for us to have generations of kids that think that it's OK to look forward to a better version of a cell phone with a video in it.
我强烈地感到,对于我们来说,让一代又一代的孩子认为可以期待更好版本的带有视频的手机是不够的。
我强烈的感觉到 这不太好,如果我们世代的后辈 只想着要一个更好 带录像的手机。
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They need to look forward to exploration; they need to look forward to colonization; they need to look forward to breakthroughs.
他们需要期待探索;他们需要期待殖民化;他们需要期待突破。
他们要渴望探索,他们要渴望征服, 他们要渴望突破。他们需要这些。
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We need to inspire them, because they need to lead us and help us survive in the future.
我们需要激励他们,因为他们需要领导我们并帮助我们在未来生存。
我们要鼓励他们,因为他们将来要领导我们 帮助我们生存。
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I'm particularly troubled that what NASA's doing right now with this new Bush doctrine to -- for this next decade and a half -- oh shoot, I screwed up.
我特别担心的是,美国宇航局现在正在按照布什的新学说所做的事情——在接下来的十五年里——哦天哪,我搞砸了。
我特别担心,美国国家宇航局现在根据新的布什政府的原则所做的 --因为在未来十五年--哦 天呢,我错了。
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We have real specific instructions here not to talk about politics.
我们在这里有真正的具体指示,不要谈论政治。
在这里我们有非常明确的规定,不可以谈政治。
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What we're looking forward to is -- what we're looking forward to is not only the inspiration of our children, but the current plan right now is not really even allowing the most creative people in this country -- the Boeing's and Lockheed's space engineers -- to go out and take risks and try new stuff.
我们期待的是——我们期待的不仅是我们孩子们的灵感,而且目前的计划甚至不允许这个国家最有创造力的人——波音公司和洛克希德公司太空工程师——出去冒险并尝试新事物。
我们所期待的是-- 我们所期待的 是不止鼓励我们的孩子 但我们现行的政策甚至不允许 这个国家最有创造力的--波音航空公司和洛克希德导弹与航天公司的 航天工程师走出去,承担风险,尝试新装置。
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We're going to go back to the moon ... 50 years later?
50 年后我们要重返月球?
我们将要回到月球--50年以后--
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And we're going to do it very specifically planned to not learn anything new.
我们将非常具体地计划这样做,而不是学习任何新东西。
我们正准备仔细地计划这件事情,学习任何新知识。
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I'm really troubled by that. But anyway that's -- the basis of the thing that I want to share with you today, though, is that right back to where we inspire people who will be our great leaders later.
我真的为此烦恼。但无论如何,我今天想与大家分享的事情的基础是,回到我们激励那些后来将成为我们伟大领导者的人的地方。
我因此非常担心。但无论如何,那是-- 我今天想和你们分享的事情的基础,尽管如此 就回到了我们要鼓励人们 鼓励日后会成为我们伟大领导的人们。
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That's the theme of my next 15 minutes here.
这就是我接下来 15 分钟的主题。
那是我在这里接下来15分钟的主题。
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And I think that the inspiration begins when you're very young: three-year-olds, up to 12-, 14-year-olds.
我认为灵感在你很小的时候就开始了:三岁,一直到 12 岁、14 岁。
我认为在你们小的时候就开始被鼓励: 从三岁的婴儿直到12,14岁的小孩。
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What they look at is the most important thing.
他们所看到的才是最重要的。
我们--最重要的事情是他们看到了什么。
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Let's take a snapshot at aviation.
让我们来看看航空业的快照。
让我们迅速回览一下航空工业。
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And there was a wonderful little short four-year time period when marvelous things happened.
在短暂的四年时间里,发生了很多奇妙的事情。
曾有四年短暂的美好时期 那时发生了许多奇迹。
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It started in 1908, when the Wright brothers flew in Paris, and everybody said, "Ooh, hey, I can do that." There's only a few people that have flown in early 1908. In four years, 39 countries had hundreds of airplanes, thousand of pilots. Airplanes were invented by natural selection.
一切始于 1908 年,当时莱特兄弟在巴黎飞行,每个人都说:“哦,嘿,我能做到。” 1908 年初,只有少数人飞过。四年内,39 个国家拥有数百架飞机、数千名飞行员。飞机是通过自然选择发明的。
那段时期开始于1908年,当怀特兄弟在巴黎飞行,每个人都说, “哦,嘿!我能做这个。”只有极少的人曾飞过 在1908年初。四年里,39个国家有了上百架飞机, 上千名飞行员。飞机通过自然选择被发明了出来。
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Now you can say that intelligent design designs our airplanes of today, but there was no intelligent design really designing those early airplanes.
现在你可以说智能设计设计了我们今天的飞机,但是没有智能设计真正设计了那些早期的飞机。
现在你可以说聪明的设计设计了我们今天的飞机, 但没有聪明的设计真正设计了那些早期的飞机。
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There were probably at least 30,000 different things tried, and when they crash and kill the pilot, don't try that again.
可能至少尝试过 30,000 种不同的方法,当它们坠毁并杀死飞行员时,请不要再尝试。
可能至少有3000种不同的尝试, 如果飞行器坠毁,飞行员身亡,就不再尝试此种飞行器。
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The ones that flew and landed OK because there were no trained pilots who had good flying qualities by definition.
那些飞行和着陆都很好的飞机,因为没有受过训练的飞行员根据定义具有良好的飞行品质。
能够飞行和着陆的就是好的, 因为没有训练有素的飞行员 没有真正有好的飞行素质之人。
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So we, by making a whole bunch of attempts, thousands of attempts, in that four-year time period, we invented the concepts of the airplanes that we fly today. And that's why they're so safe, as we gave it a lot of chance to find what's good.
因此,我们在四年的时间里进行了大量的尝试,数千次的尝试,发明了我们今天驾驶的飞机的概念​​。这就是为什么它们如此安全,因为我们给了它很多机会去发现好的东西。
所以我们,通过做一大堆尝试,几千次的尝试, 在那四年里,我们发明了 我们今天飞行所用的飞机。这就是为什么我们这么安全, 因为我们给了自己很多机会去发现什么是好的。
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That has not happened at all in space flying.
这在太空飞行中根本没有发生过。
在宇宙飞行领域,我们没有给自己一点儿机会。
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There's only been two concepts tried -- two by the U.S. and one by the Russians.
只尝试了两种概念——两种是美国的,一种是俄罗斯的。
只尝试了两个想法 -- 美国尝试了两个,俄罗斯尝试了一个。
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Well, who was inspired during that time period?
那么,在那段时期谁受到了启发?
那么,在这段时期,谁被鼓舞了?
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Aviation Week asked me to make a list of who I thought were the movers and shakers of the first 100 years of aviation.
《航空周刊》要求我列出一份我认为是航空业第一个 100 年的推动者和撼动者的名单。
《航空周刊》让我列一个表,列出我认为 这一百年的航空事业的推动者。
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And I wrote them down and I found out later that every one of them was a little kid in that wonderful renaissance of aviation.
我把它们写下来,后来我发现,他们每个人都是那场美妙的航空复兴中的小孩子。
我把他们写了出来,之后发现他们每一个人 在航天事业的奇妙复兴之时都是小孩子。
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Well, what happened when I was a little kid was -- some pretty heavy stuff too.
嗯,当我还是个小孩子的时候,发生过一些非常沉重的事情。
那么,当我小的时候发生了什么-- 也是非常重大的事件。
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The jet age started: the missile age started. Von Braun was on there showing how to go to Mars -- and this was before Sputnik.
喷气式飞机时代开始了:导弹时代开始了。冯·布劳恩在那里展示了如何去火星——这是在人造卫星发射之前。
喷气式飞机时代开始了,导弹时代开始了。冯 布劳恩在那里 展示如何登上火星 -- 这些事早于人造地球卫星的制造。
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And this was at a time when Mars was a hell of a lot more interesting than it is now. We thought there'd be animals there; we knew there were plants there; the colors change, right?
当时火星比现在有趣得多。我们以为那里会有动物;但事实并非如此。我们知道那里有植物;颜色变了,对吗?
那时火星是一个非常令人感兴趣的地方 比现在有趣得多。我们曾以为那里有动物存在, 我们知道那里有植物,有色彩变幻,不是吗?
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But, you know, NASA screwed that up because they've sent these robots and they've landed it only in the deserts.
但是,你知道,美国宇航局搞砸了,因为他们派遣了这些机器人,但只将其降落在沙漠中。
但是,你知道,美国国家宇航局搞砸了这事情,因为他们派遣了这些机器人 而他们只着陆在了沙漠里。
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If you look at what happened -- this little black line is as fast as man ever flew, and the red line is top-of-the-line military fighters and the blue line is commercial air transport.
如果你看看发生了什么——这条小黑线的速度与人类飞行的速度一样快,红线是顶级军事战斗机,蓝线是商业航空运输。
如果你看一看发生了什么 -- 这条小黑线和人们曾经飞行的速度一样快, 这条红线代表军队里速度最快的飞行员 蓝色代表商业飞机运输。
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You notice here's a big jump when I was a little kid -- and I think that had something to do with giving me the courage to go out and try something that other people weren't having the courage to try.
你会注意到,当我还是个小孩子的时候,这是一个很大的跳跃——我认为这与给我勇气出去尝试其他人没有勇气尝试的事情有关。
你注意这里有一个大的跳跃。当我还是一个小孩时-- 我认为曾有些事给予我勇气 走出去,尝试其他人没勇气去做的事。
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Well, what did I do when I was a kid?
嗯,我小时候都做了什么?
那么,我小时候做了什么?
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I didn't do the hotrods and the girls and the dancing and, well, we didn't have drugs in those days. But I did competition model airplanes.
我没有参加改装车、女孩和舞蹈,而且那时候我们也没有毒品。但我做了竞赛模型飞机。
我那时没有玩车,交女朋友,没有跳舞。 并且,那时我也没有吸毒。我做了些比赛用的飞机模型。
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I spent about seven years during the Vietnam War flight-testing airplanes for the Air Force.
在越南战争期间,我花了大约七年的时间为空军测试飞机。
越战时,我花了七年时间 为空军做飞机飞行测试。
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And then I went in and I had a lot of fun building airplanes that people could build in their garages.
然后我进去了,我在建造人们可以在车库里建造的飞机中获得了很多乐趣。
后来,我涉猎飞机制造,并从中的到甚多乐趣 那些飞机是人们可以在自家车库里制造的。
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And some 3,000 of those are flying. Of course, one of them is around the world Voyager. I founded another company in '82, which is my company now.
其中约 3,000 架正在飞行。当然,其中之一就是环球航海者号。我在82年创办了另一家公司,这就是我现在的公司。
这些里面有约有3000架正在飞行。当然,它们中的一架 是可以环游世界的航行者号。我在1982年建立了另一家公司, 就是我现在的公司。
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And we have developed more than one new type of airplane every year since 1982.
自 1982 年以来,我们每年都开发出不止一种新型飞机。
从1982年起,我们公司每年研发不只一种飞机,
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And there's a lot of them that I actually can't show you on this chart.
其中有很多我实际上无法在这张图表上向您展示。
有许多飞机我无法在这张图上介绍给大家。
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The most impressive airplane ever, I believe, was designed only a dozen years after the first operational jet.
我相信,有史以来最令人印象深刻的飞机是在第一架投入运营的喷气式飞机问世仅十几年后就设计出来的。
最令人印象深刻的飞机,我相信,是那架 在第一架喷气式飞机制造出后,仅过了十二年就设计出的飞机。
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Stayed in service till it was too rusty to fly, taken out of service.
继续服役,直到生锈而无法飞行,然后退役。
它一直在飞行,直到锈迹斑斑才不再服役。
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We retreated in '98 back to something that was developed in '56. What?
我们在 98 年退回到 56 年开发的东西。什么?
我们1998年的研发水平倒退至1956年。什么?
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The most impressive spaceship ever, I believe, was a Grumman Lunar Lander. It was a -- you know, it landed on the moon, take off of the moon, didn't need any maintenance guys -- that's kind of cool.
我相信,有史以来最令人印象深刻的宇宙飞船是格鲁曼月球着陆器。这是一个——你知道,它登陆月球,从月球起飞,不需要任何维护人员——这有点酷。
史上最震撼人心的宇宙飞船,我相信, 是格鲁曼公司所做的登月艇。它是一艘--你知道,它在月球着陆, 从月球起飞,无需人员维护-- 那有点儿酷。
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We've lost that capability. We abandoned it in '72.
我们已经失去了这种能力。我们在 72 年放弃了它。
我们已经丧失了能力。我们在1972年放弃了它。
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This thing was designed three years after Gagarin first flew in space in 1961.
这个东西是在 1961 年加加林首次太空飞行三年后设计的。
这架飞船在前苏联宇航员加加林1961年首次宇宙飞行的三年后被设计出来。
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Three years, and we can't do that now. Crazy.
三年了,我们现在不能这样做。疯狂的。
三年,而我们现在做不到了。
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Talk very briefly about innovation cycles, things that grow, have a lot of activity; they die out when they're replaced by something else.
非常简短地谈论创新周期,成长的事物,有很多活动;当它们被其他东西取代时,它们就会消失。
疯狂。简短地谈一下发明创造的周期,周期发展时 会衍生许多活动,当这些活动被其他活动取代,此周期就灭亡了。
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These things tend to happen every 25 years.
这些事情往往每 25 年就会发生一次。
这样的周期每25年出现一次。
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40 years long, with an overlap. You can put that statement on all kinds of different technologies. The interesting thing -- by the way, the speed here, excuse me, higher-speed travel is the title of these innovation cycles. There is none here.
40年之久,有重叠。您可以将该声明应用于各种不同的技术。有趣的是——顺便说一下,这里的速度,对不起,高速旅行是这些创新周期的标题。这里没有。
持续40年的时间,有些周期相互交叠。你可以将此观点 放至不同的科技。这有趣的事情-- 顺便一提,这里的速度,不好意思,高速旅行 是这些发明创造周期的标题。这里没有一个。
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These two new airplanes are the same speed as the DC8 that was done in 1958.
这两架新飞机的速度与 1958 年生产的 DC8 相同。
这两架飞机与1958年制造的DC8速度相同。
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Here's the biggie, and that is, you don't have innovation cycles if the government develops and the government uses it.
这是一个大问题,那就是,如果政府开发并使用它,那么就没有创新周期。
这是件大事,那就是,你没有发明创造周期 如果政府研发并应用其研发成果。
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You know, a good example, of course, is the DARPA net.
当然,DARPA 网络就是一个很好的例子。
你知道,一个好的例子,当然就是DARPA网。
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Computers were used for artillery first, then IRS.
计算机首先用于炮兵,然后用于国税局。
电脑首先应用于炮兵部队,然后是美国国税局。
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But when we got it, now you have all the level of activity, all the benefit from it. Private sector has to do it.
但当我们得到它时,现在你就拥有了所有的活动水平,并从中受益。私营部门必须这样做。
但当我们得到它时,现在你拥有所有活动的级别, 所有由它而来的利益。私营部门不得不这么做。
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Keep that in mind. I put down innovation -- I've looked for innovation cycles in space; I found none.
记住这一点。我放下了创新——我在太空中寻找创新周期;我没有找到。
记住它。我提出发明创新-- 我期待看到宇宙空间的发明创新周期,但我什么也没发现。
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The very first year, starting when Gagarin went in space, and a few weeks later Alan Shepherd, there were five manned space flights in the world -- the very first year.
第一年,从加加林进入太空开始,几周后艾伦·谢泼德开始,世界上有五次载人航天飞行——这是第一年。
在最初的那一年,从加加林和 和几周后阿兰 谢巴德进入太空开始,世界上有五次人造 飞船航行;在最初的那一年。
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In 2003, everyone that the United States sent to space was killed.
2003年,美国送入太空的所有人都被杀害。
2003年,美国的送入太空的每个人都牺牲了。
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There were only three or four flights in 2003.
2003年只有三、四次航班。
2003年只有三或四次飞行。
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In 2004, there were only two flights: two Russian Soyuz flights to the international manned station. And I had to fly three in Mojave with my little group of a couple dozen people in order to get to a total of five, which was the number the same year back in 1961.
2004年,只有两趟航班:两趟俄罗斯联盟号飞往国际有人站的航班。我和我的几十人小团队必须在莫哈韦飞行三架飞机,才能达到 1961 年同年的五架飞机总数。
2004年,只有两次飞行:两次俄罗斯联盟号飞船飞行 至国际空间站。而我不得不在莫哈维沙漠起飞三次 和我的两队人马一起 为了达到5次飞行的总数, 这是1961年的数字。
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There is no growth. There's no activity. There's no nothing.
没有增长。没有活动啊就什么都没有了
没有进步。没有活动。什么也没有。
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This is a picture here taken from SpaceShipOne.
这是从 SpaceShipOne 拍摄的照片。
这张照片取自一号太空飞船。
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This is a picture here taken from orbit.
这是从轨道上拍摄的照片。
这张照片取自轨道。
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Our goal is to make it so that you can see this picture and really enjoy that.
我们的目标是让您能够看到这张照片并真正享受它。
我们的目标是拍下这些照片,这样大家就能看到它,真正地喜欢它。
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We know how to do it for sub-orbital flying now, do it safe enough -- at least as safe as the early airlines -- so that can be done.
我们现在知道如何进行亚轨道飞行,并且足够安全——至少像早期的航空公司一样安全——这样就可以做到。
我们知道如何为亚轨道飞行拍照片,非常安全地做这件事-- 至少像早期的航线一样安全--所以可以做。
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And I think I want to talk a little bit about why we had the courage to go out and try that as a small company.
我想我想谈谈为什么我们作为一家小公司有勇气出去尝试。
我认为我想了点儿为什么我们有勇气 尝试飞到太空,我们是个小公司。
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Well, first of all, what's going to happen next?
好吧,首先,接下来会发生什么?
那么,首先,接下来会发生什么?
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The first industry will be a high volume, a lot of players.
第一个行业将是一个高容量、大量参与者的行业。
第一产业将会数量巨大,参与者众多。
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There's another one announced just last week.
上周还宣布了另一项计划。
上周有另一个公司宣布它们可以。
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And it will be sub-orbital. And the reason it has to be sub-orbital is, there is not solutions for adequate safety to fly the public to orbit. The governments have been doing this -- three governments have been doing this for 45 years, and still four percent of the people that have left the atmosphere have died.
它将是亚轨道的。它必须在亚轨道上运行的原因是,没有足够的安全方案将公众送入轨道。各国政府一直在这样做——三个政府已经这样做了 45 年,但仍有 4% 的离开大气层的人死亡。
这次飞行将会是亚轨道。亚轨道的原因 是,没有保证充分安全的方法 可以带领大众飞至轨道。一些国家的政府正在这样做-- 有三个政府已经这么做了45年, 仍然有百分之四十的人命丧太空。
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That's -- You don't want to run a business with that kind of a safety record.
那就是——你不想经营一家有这种安全记录的企业。
那是--你不想经营一项有这种安全记录的事业。
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It'll be very high volume; we think 100,000 people will fly by 2020.
数量会非常大;我们预计到 2020 年将有 10 万人乘坐飞机。
它的量会变得很大;我们认为到2020年将会有100000人进行太空飞行。
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I can't tell you when this will start, because I don't want my competition to know my schedule.
我不能告诉你什么时候开始,因为我不想让我的竞争对手知道我的日程安排。
我不能告诉你太空旅行何时开始, 因为我不想我的竞争者知道我的计划。
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But I think once it does, we will find solutions, and very quickly, you'll see those resort hotels in orbit.
但我认为一旦实现,我们就会找到解决方案,很快,你就会在轨道上看到那些度假酒店。
但我认为一旦开始,我们将会找到解决方案。 并且很快,你将在轨道上看到旅游旅店。
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And that real easy thing to do, which is a swing around the moon so you have this cool view. And that will be really cool.
这是一件非常容易做的事情,那就是围绕月球旋转,这样你就可以看到很酷的景色。那真的很酷。
去月球上绕一圈是非常容易做到的事情, 因为你能看到非常酷的景象。那确实会很酷。
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Because the moon doesn't have an atmosphere -- you can do an elliptical orbit and miss it by 10 feet if you want.
因为月球没有大气层——如果你愿意的话,你可以绕椭圆轨道运行,但会偏离它 10 英尺。
因为月球没有大气层环绕-- 如果你愿意,你可以绕误差在10英尺的椭圆形轨道飞行。
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Oh, it's going to be so much fun.
噢,这将会非常有趣。
噢,那会非常有趣。
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OK. My critics say, "Hey, Rutan's just spending a lot of these billionaires' money for joyrides for billionaires.
好的。我的批评者说:“嘿,鲁坦只是花了很多亿万富翁的钱来为亿万富翁们兜风。
好。批评我的人说,“嘿,鲁坦,只是花着” 这些亿万富翁的钱,为其创造游览飞行。
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What's this? This is not a transportation system; it's just for fun."
这是什么?这不是一个交通系统;而是一个交通系统。这只是为了好玩。”
这是什么?这不是运输系统,它只是用于消遣。“
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And I used to be bothered by that, and then I got to thinking, well, wait a minute. I bought my first Apple computer in 1978 and I bought it because I could say, "I got a computer at my house and you don't.
我曾经为此烦恼,然后我开始想,好吧,等一下。我在 1978 年买了第一台苹果电脑,我买它是因为我可以说:“我家里有一台电脑,而你没有。
我过去常常因此而困扰,后来我开始思考。 那么,等一下。我带来了我的第一台1978年的苹果电脑 我把它带来因为我可以说,“我在家里有一台电脑,而你没有。
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'What do you use it for?' Come over. It does Frogger." OK.
'你用它来做什么?'过来。青蛙过河了。”好吧。
‘用它做什么?’过来。它能玩青蛙过街。”好吧。
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Not the bank's computer or Lockheed's computer, but the home computer was for games.
不是银行的电脑,也不是洛克希德的电脑,而是家用电脑,是用来玩游戏的。
不是银行的电脑或洛克希德导弹与航天公司的电脑, 家用电脑是用于游戏的。
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For a whole decade it was for fun -- we didn't even know what it was for.
整整十年,它都是为了好玩——我们甚至不知道它是用来做什么的。
对于整整一代来说,它是用于消遣--我们甚至不知道它是用于做什么的。
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But what happened, the fact that we had this big industry, big development, big improvement and capability and so on, and they get out there in enough homes -- we were ripe for a new invention.
但发生了什么,事实是我们拥有这个大产业、大发展、大改进和能力等等,而且它们出现在足够多的家庭中——我们已经准备好进行一项新发明了。
但是发生了什么,我们有了这个巨大的产业, 巨大的发展,巨大的进步和能力等等, 他们被许多的家庭所知,我们的新发明变得成熟。
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And the inventor is in this audience.
而发明者就在这群观众中。
而发明者就坐在观众席里。
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Al Gore invented the Internet and because of that, something that we used for a whole year -- excuse me -- a whole decade for fun, became everything -- our commerce, our research, our communication and, if we let the Google guys think for another couple weekends, we can add a dozen more things to the list. And it won't be very long before you won't be able to convince kids
阿尔·戈尔发明了互联网,正因为如此,我们用了一整年——对不起——整整十年来娱乐的东西,变成了一切——我们的商业、我们的研究、我们的交流,如果我们让谷歌的人这么做的话再过几个周末,我们可以在清单上添加更多的东西。用不了多久你就无法说服孩子们
阿尔 戈尔发明了互联网,因此, 互联网--我们用了一整年--不好意思, 整整一代用其消遣,变成了每一件事情--我们的商业,我们的研究, 我们的交流而且,如果我们让谷歌的人 再想连个周末,我们能在此表上再加上许多条。 要不了多久,孩子们就不会相信
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that we didn't always have computers in our homes.
我们家里并不总是有电脑。
我们的家里电脑曾经并不普及。
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So fun is defendable.
所以乐趣是有道理的。
所以乐趣是应该被保护的。
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OK, I want to show you kind of a busy chart, but in it is my prediction with what's going to happen.
好的,我想向您展示一张繁忙的图表,但其中包含我对将要发生的事情的预测。
好,我想展示给大家一张复杂的表, 里面是我对未来会发生什么的预言。
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And in it also brings up another point, right here.
其中还提出了另一点,就在这里。
里面也提出了另一个观点,就在这。
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There's a group of people that have come forward -- and you don't know all of them -- but the ones that have come forward were inspired as young children, this little three- to 15-year-old age, by us going to orbit and going to the moon here, right in this time period.
有一群人挺身而出——你并不认识他们所有人——但挺身而出的人在孩提时代,也就是三到十五岁的年纪,就受到了我们的启发。就在这个时间段,在这里绕轨道飞行并前往月球。
有一群人已经前进-- 你不认识他们所有人--但那些已经前进的人 像3至15岁的年轻孩子一样被我们鼓励 他们将飞向轨道,飞向月亮, 就在这个时期。
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Paul Allen, Elan Musk, Richard Branson, Jeff Bezos, the Ansari family, which is now funding the Russians' sub-orbital thing, Bob Bigelow, a private space station, and Carmack.
保罗·艾伦、埃兰·马斯克、理查德·布兰森、杰夫·贝索斯、安萨里家族(目前正在为俄罗斯的亚轨道项目提供资金)、鲍勃·毕格罗(一个私人空间站)和卡马克。
保罗 艾伦,艾伦 莫斯克,理查德 布兰森,杰夫 贝佐斯,安萨里家族, 他们现在资助俄罗斯的亚轨道航行, 鲍勃 比洛奇,一个私人空间站,和卡马克。
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These people are taking money and putting it in an interesting area, and I think it's a lot better than they put it in an area of a better cell phone or something -- but they're putting it in very -- areas and this will lead us into this kind of capability, and it will lead us into the next really big thing and it will allow us to explore. And I think eventually
这些人把钱放在一个有趣的领域,我认为这比他们把钱放在更好的手机或其他东西的领域要好得多——但他们把钱放在非常——的领域,这将引导我们进入这种能力,它将引导我们进入下一个真正的大事物,它将使我们能够探索。我想最终
这些人把钱投入一个有趣的领域, 而我认为这笔把钱 花在买一个更好的手机或其他事情上要好得多--但他们把钱投入到非常[模糊的] 区域,而这将会引导我们获得这种能力, 这将会引导我们进入下一个真正大的事件 这会让我们探索。而我认为最终
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it will allow us to colonize and to keep us from going extinct.
它将使我们能够殖民并防止我们灭绝。
这会让我们能够得到地盘,使我们远离灭亡。
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They were inspired by big progress. But look at the progress that's going on after that.
他们受到巨大进步的启发。但看看之后发生的进展。
他们被巨大的进程所鼓舞。但看看那之后的进程。
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There were a couple of examples here.
这里有几个例子。
这里有两个例子。
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The military fighters had a -- highest-performance military airplane was the SR71. It went a whole life cycle, got too rusty to fly, and was taken out of service. The Concorde doubled the speed for airline travel.
军用战斗机拥有一款性能最高的军用飞机是 SR71。它经历了整个生命周期,生锈得无法飞行,然后退役。协和式飞机使航空旅行的速度提高了一倍。
军事战斗机有一架最高性能的空军飞机 是SR71.它走过了整个生命周期,直到锈迹斑斑才停滞飞行, 退出服役。协和式飞机使空军旅行速度翻倍。
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It went a whole life cycle without competition, took out of service. And we're stuck back here with the same kind of capability for military fighters and commercial airline travel that we had back in the late '50s.
它在没有竞争的情况下度过了整个生命周期,退出了服务。我们现在仍然拥有与 50 年代末相同的军用战斗机和商业航空旅行能力。
它飞过了整个生命周期,没有遇到任何竞争; 然后停飞。而我们就此卡住 拥有这样的军事战斗机 和商业航空旅行,我们回到了50年代末期。
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But something is out there to inspire our kids now.
但现在有一些东西可以激励我们的孩子。
但现在出现了一些事情去鼓舞我们的孩子。
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