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+ {"source_url": "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com", "url": "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/expert-view/auto-no-longer-best-play-on-indias-consumption-story-sameer-narayan/articleshow/73055012.cms", "title": "Auto no longer best play on India's consumption story: Sameer Narayan", "top_image": "https://img.etimg.com/thumb/msid-73055034,width-1070,height-580,imgsize-141905,overlay-etmarkets/photo.jpg", "meta_img": "https://img.etimg.com/thumb/msid-73055034,width-1070,height-580,imgsize-141905,overlay-etmarkets/photo.jpg", "images": ["https://img.etimg.com/photo/80785542.cms", "https://img.etimg.com/photo/80463194.cms", "https://img.etimg.com/photo/81164552.cms", "https://img.etimg.com/photo/17981456.cms", "https://img.etimg.com/photo/79132683.cms", "https://img.etimg.com/thumb/msid-73055034,width-1070,height-580,imgsize-141905,overlay-etmarkets/photo.jpg", "https://img.etimg.com/photo/msid-74462387,quality-100/et-logo.jpg", "https://img.etimg.com/photo/42031747.cms", "https://img.etimg.com/photo/80979629.cms", "https://img.etimg.com/photo/77847333.cms", "https://img.etimg.com/photo/msid-76920540,quality-100/et-markets-logo.jpg", "https://img.etimg.com/photo/msid-76920425,quality-100/et-logo.jpg", "https://img.etimg.com/photo/msid-71736973,quality-100/logo-stock-screener.jpg", "https://img.etimg.com/photo/80600940.cms", "https://img.etimg.com/photo/64781824.cms", "https://img.etimg.com/photo/47865640.cms", "https://img.etimg.com/photo/79689573.cms", "https://img.etimg.com/photo/80231909.cms", "https://img.etimg.com/thumb/msid-73057758,width-300,imgsize-30527,,resizemode-4,quality-100/.jpg", "https://img.etimg.com/photo/79132681.cms"], "movies": [], "text": "Independent market expert Sameer Narayan says if he has to go back and reconstruct the same Nifty, which it was five years back, it might not yield a 12-13 per cent returns for Calendar 2019. \"But if you look at the new index entrants, that's where money has definitely been made and that trend would probably continue,\u201d he said. Excerpts from an interview with ETNOWPeople are quite optimistic about 2020 and the fact that global growth seems to be showing signs of returning. This should really enthuse us because over the last three-four years, unfortunately, our export growth has plateaued. In case the global demand picks up, there is a large implication that you will probably see the earnings recovery that we have been waiting for and if that comes through, then I think the market does not look that expensive. And there is definitely money to be made because there are a lot of pockets of value that have now emerged.Everyone is eyeing how global growth moves because now with China and US coming to some sort of an agreement and hopefully a trade deal being signed, these are good tidings and people would take cognizance of that once they get back to their desks after the festivities are done.That 2019 has been canned and it is part of history now.Today, correlations among asset classes have just got disbanded. Therefore, you see debt and equity, bond markets or gold doing well. In fact, surprisingly gold and crude have been among the top return generators for 2019. This is completely going against the fact that gold should do well when the markets do not; unfortunately, that has not borne out in 2019.In India for a large amount of money the top 50 stocks are basically what matters because those are the companies that are worth more than $10 billion and that is where large participation comes in, returns have been made and that is where most of the passive ETF money has found its way. And that's why retail investors have not probably benefited from the double-digit positive market returns for 2019. The midcaps have not done well, the broader market has not done well but these largecaps have delivered fantastic returns.One has to bear in mind that if I go back and reconstruct the same Nifty which it was five years back, that may not yield a 12-13 per cent return for Calendar 2019. But if you look at the new index entrants, those are where the money has definitely been made and that trend would probably continue because a lot of insurance plays, a lot of asset management plays have still to become part of the indices.Auto was a largely owned sector which had generated a substantial amount of returns in the previous couple of years.Once it had seen a correction of at least 25-30% from the highs, people thought that this is a good sector for a comeback. Now, whether a customer going out and taking up Rs 5-10 lakh car is something that one has to still see because today the household debt is clearly on a deleveraging path. We have seen two phases: First, corporate India was deleveraging from 2015 till about 2018 and post the NBFC crisis, the Indian consumer is also on the deleveraging mode. People feel that once liquidity comes back into the system, and RBI has clearly made its surplus, hopefully there should be some more lending and then the demand pick up should follow.The valuation case does not exist for most of the auto names because a cyclical industry quoting at such high multiples is definitely not a very good risk-reward. But having said that, people feel that after seeing such a large amount of correction, hopefully some ownership change shakes out, and there could be some sort of an incremental data flow that may prove to be positive, maybe in the form of some GST changes, some sort of emission norm rollover, some base effect.People are probably trying to make a case for a pullback but I do not think it will probably be anything more than that because I do not think somebody thinks of auto as a great sector to play the Indian consumption story any more.I would like to hear something about what is happening on the divestment front because the Budget is one month down the line and there are worries that the government will definitely not be able to meet its fiscal deficit target.But the infrastructure announcement definitely gives you some sort of an indication that is the only way you are going to get private capex going. Hopefully, if the government has said it will spend A, B, C, D over the next four-five years, that is clearly a signal that now corporates can be more confident of government orders coming through because there is actually a conflicting signal that the March quarter expenditure budget has actually been curtailed back.People are looking for more data because the government was the only spending force so to say in the economy hitherto. And now if it will cut back on the March quarter expenditure and at the same time give a five-year view, it is good because then that at least there is visibility over the medium term. In the short term, the uncertainties are only getting more and more highlighted.Well, JSPL you had seen a lot of drawdown happening because there were some concerns that emanated in terms of the mine allocation. But once those were addressed and following the ferrous cycle, the steel prices have actually held on. After around Diwali when the global HR prices moved up, thankfully earlier the trend didn\u2019t repeat itself. Because earlier, the moment there used to be a price increase the demand would go off, the dealers were forced to cut prices and then the realisation would drop again. This is what is giving people confidence that now the HR prices will move up than their input costs because input costs had earlier squeezed a lot of non-integrated players. With HR move prices moving higher than the raw material, meaning there will be more margin for them to retain that is what people are betting on.Insurance is good play. FMCG maybe not so much but telecom may be a good proxy consumption play.Whatever index stocks you have in telecom -- which is Reliance, Bharti.That is quite possible because the financial rally and the private bank space has been moving up on the back of the Indian consumption boom which was financed by a lot of NBFC credit.Now, if inflation goes up, then people start curbing consumption and then obviously you are not going to see 25-30% loan growth book that you have been seeing over the last half a decade. That brings us to the fact that if you look at this metric in 2010 none of the financials were there. Today, if you look at the weightages you do not find any asset companies, no metals, no utilities, no OMCs, nothing. In case if inflation was to come back, then most of these asset plays which we are not pricing in at all today in the weightages should actually come back in flavour. If you are making a case for the next 10 years, you would probably go back to private capex, asset creation, capital goods. All asset owned businesses which are today quoting at 1-1.5 times book just because there is no element of growth could be good bets for the next decade as well.", "keywords": [], "meta_keywords": ["Sameer Narayan", "Auto sector", "et now", "consumption", "Market Strategy"], "tags": ["Auto sector", "Rupee vs Dollar", "consumption", "SEBI", "Sameer Narayan", "et now", "Market Strategy"], "authors": [], "publish_date": null, "summary": "", "article_html": "", "meta_description": "Global growth seems to be showing signs of returning, says Sameer Narayan.", "meta_lang": "", "meta_favicon": "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/icons/etfavicon.ico", "meta_data": {"description": "Global growth seems to be showing signs of returning, says Sameer Narayan.", "news_keywords": "Sameer Narayan,Auto sector,et now,consumption,Market Strategy", "keywords": "Sameer Narayan,Auto sector,et now,consumption,Market Strategy", "article": {"tag": "Market Strategy"}, "fb": {"pages": 400601983320296, "app_id": 117787264903013, "admins": 556964827}, "og": {"title": "Auto no longer best play on India's consumption story: Sameer Narayan", "description": "Global growth seems to be showing signs of returning, says Sameer Narayan.", "site_name": "The Economic Times", "type": "website", "url": "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/expert-view/auto-no-longer-best-play-on-indias-consumption-story-sameer-narayan/articleshow/73055012.cms", "image": "https://img.etimg.com/thumb/msid-73055034,width-1070,height-580,imgsize-141905,overlay-etmarkets/photo.jpg"}, "website": "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/", "object_type": "website", "twitter": {"card": "summary_large_image", "site": "@EconomicTimes", "url": "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/expert-view/auto-no-longer-best-play-on-indias-consumption-story-sameer-narayan/articleshow/73055012.cms", "title": "Auto no longer best play on India's consumption story: Sameer Narayan", "description": "Global growth seems to be showing signs of returning, says Sameer Narayan.", "image": "https://img.etimg.com/thumb/msid-73055034,width-1070,height-580,imgsize-141905,overlay-etmarkets/photo.jpg", "app": {"country": "IN", "name": {"iphone": "The Economic Times App", "googleplay": "The Economic Times App"}, "id": {"iphone": 474766725, "googleplay": "com.et.reader.activities"}, "url": {"iphone": "etapp://articleshow/73055012", "googleplay": "etandroidapp://articleshow/73055012"}}}, "robots": "max-image-preview:large", "al": {"ios": {"url": "etapp://articleshow/73055012", "app_store_id": 474766725, "app_name": "The Economic Times App"}, "android": {"url": "etandroidapp://articleshow/73055012", "com": "com.et.reader.activities", "app_name": "The Economic Times"}}}, "canonical_link": "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/expert-view/auto-no-longer-best-play-on-indias-consumption-story-sameer-narayan/articleshow/73055012.cms"}