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{"source_url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com", "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/01/01/expect-tumultuous-middle-east/", "title": "What\u2019s ahead in the Middle East?", "top_image": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/resizer/656ajwzwC_I_an1C3SMEdiiMLIM=/1484x0/arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/7HIMELRL4EI6VP76AIGIRM7REA.jpg", "meta_img": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/resizer/656ajwzwC_I_an1C3SMEdiiMLIM=/1484x0/arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/7HIMELRL4EI6VP76AIGIRM7REA.jpg", "images": ["https://me.effectivemeasure.net/em_image", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/resizer/656ajwzwC_I_an1C3SMEdiiMLIM=/1484x0/arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/7HIMELRL4EI6VP76AIGIRM7REA.jpg", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/resizer/yAFxThroW-CI5t-yu8Q6FsF7kHI=/1x1/www.washingtonpost.com/pb/resources/img/spacer.gif", "https://sb.scorecardresearch.com/p?c1=2&c2=3005617&cv=2.0&cj=1"], "movies": [], "text": "\n\nProtesters burn property Tuesday in front of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad. (Khalid Mohammed/AP)\n\nIt doesn\u2019t take a crystal ball to see that the Middle East\u2019s 2020 will be tumultuous. Libya\u2019s civil war has taken a dangerous turn, with Russian mercenaries and Turkish forces joining the fray as Gen. Khalifa Hifter\u2019s forces push into the capital. Yemen\u2019s still ravaged by economic blockade and war, despite recent efforts on all sides to de-escalate the conflict. Syria\u2019s civil war continues to metastasize, with a massive new wave of refugees fleeing violence in Idlib. Large-scale popular protests are challenging Iraq\u2019s government, which is bracing for fallout from the growing confrontation between the United States and Iran. Israel and the Palestinian territories could dramatically change their relationship, as the prospects of a two-state solution dissolve. And protest movements throughout the region could shake up half a dozen regimes.\n\nHere are three trends to watch in the Middle East over the coming year.\n\n1. Every government is on edge about the U.S. 2020 election\n\nUsually, when the U.S. government changes hands, U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East remains steady and consistent. No more. If a Democrat replaces Donald Trump in the Oval Office, Middle Eastern regimes expect sharply reversed policies on such front-line issues as the nuclear agreement with Iran, the Israeli-Palestinian relationship, relations with Turkey, and alliances in the Gulf. If Trump remains in office, he will be unleashed, convinced by his electoral success that even his most controversial policies were right.\n\nFacing such different possible futures, Middle Eastern governments could choose one of two approaches. They have good reason to be cautious, reaching out to both sides of the American partisan divide to ensure continuity in their relations. But some may see a closing window of opportunity for cherished goals \u2014 including potentially destabilizing moves that the Trump administration may wish to encourage, seeing possible political advantages. That means there\u2019s an unusually high risk that Israel will annex the West Bank or launch a major military strike against Iran or Hezbollah over the next 11 months.\n\nKey regional players such as Saudi Arabia\u2019s crown prince, the United Arab Emirates and Israel\u2019s Benjamin Netanyahu placed all their bets on Trump\u2019s presidency. Their enthusiastic embrace of Trump brought near-complete impunity for their regional adventurism, atrocities such as the murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi, and controversial domestic policies. That close relationship came at a cost, though: Both Congress and the U.S. public increasingly identified them as Republican allies. Should a Democrat take the White House, Saudi Arabia in particular can expect serious repercussions. Their assessment of the likelihood of a new American administration in 2020 will likely guide their decision-making in the coming months.\n\n[Looking back at the Middle East's 2019: surprises from Trump, Saudi power moves, mass protests, and more.]\n\n2. Conflicts in the gulf region are getting harder to control\n\nThe Trump administration\u2019s \u201cmaximum pressure\u201d campaign against Iran has inflicted economic pain \u2014 while accomplishing few or none of its strategic objectives. For all its internal problems, the regime is unlikely to collapse. Seeing no diplomatic openings ahead, Iran and its proxies have launched a series of escalating attacks on U.S. interests. After avoiding responding to such earlier incidents as suspected Iranian attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman, the U.S. bombed Katai\u2019b Hezbollah targets in Iraq. While all players have thus far managed the conflict to avoid escalation, this will become increasingly difficult. Expect continued escalation between Iran and the United States across the Persian Gulf region, Iraq, Syria and even Lebanon as these dynamics continue. While neither the U.S., its allies, nor Iran wants war, the complexity of the situation, the number of potential spoilers, and the uncertainty generated by Washington\u2019s turmoil raise the risk of unintended escalation.\n\nEven without war, Iraq will suffer the collateral damage of this confrontation, as it is torn between its close relations with both Iran and the United States. Remarkably, the Trump administration has abandoned the U.S. strategic consensus that it\u2019s essential to support the Iraqi government that the United States largely created \u2014 and has instead single-mindedly focused on confronting Iran and its allies, even when that endangers the coalition\u2019s campaign against the Islamic State. The U.S. strike against an Iranian-backed militia has been predictably destabilizing. Protesters stormed the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, as popular opinion which had been focused on Iran\u2019s presence in recent weeks has turned sharply against the United States. Don\u2019t be surprised if Iraqi politicians begin demanding that U.S. forces leave the country.\n\n[Could the Gulf crisis with Qatar be winding down?]\n\n3. Protests and more protests\n\n2019\u2019s wave of protests across the Middle East rivaled those of the Arab Spring in 2011 \u2014 and in some ways were more impressive. Protests challenged regimes in Iran, Iraq and Lebanon; forced political change in Algeria; and overthrew the Sudanese regime. More will come. Lebanon\u2019s economic crisis is intersecting with the protests in unprecedented ways, while the sudden death of Algeria\u2019s military strongman and the election of a new president has opened the door to the possibility for real change. Sudan\u2019s remarkable democratic transition will be sorely tested. Popular dissatisfaction had been building in these countries \u2014 and others \u2014 for years, with widespread discontent over worsening unemployment, food shortages, crippled or nonexistent public services, and corrupt or repressive governments were amplified by a new generation\u2019s impatience. New protest waves were only a matter of time.\n\nSudan\u2019s remarkable success offers a glimmer of hope that protest movements may break with recent patterns of failure in 2020. Protesters have learned from past failures, showing remarkable resilience, creativity and political discipline. However, keep an eye on whether these sustained peaceful protests will tip over into violence, as loosely organized opposition coalitions fray and impatient regimes use harsher policing tactics. In Iran, brutal repression seems to have quashed its 2019 protests but the underlying grievances simmer. In Iraq and Lebanon, the governments\u2019 violent attacks on protesters haven\u2019t yet slowed those demonstrations \u2014 and could escalate from arrests and beatings to slaughter.\n\nDon\u2019t be surprised if protests erupt in other countries this year. Egypt\u2019s government has been intensifying its repression, arresting journalists and shuttering civil society while its economy has struggled. Jordan\u2019s economic struggles have become more pressing under the weight of Syrian refugees and reduced aid from the Gulf, and Israel\u2019s annexation of the West Bank could spill over onto Jordan\u2019s territory. Oman\u2019s long-ruling Sultan is reportedly critically ill, and his succession is of great interest to its bickering gulf neighbors. While renewed protests in Syria against Assad\u2019s brutal regime are difficult to imagine, the dramatic spillover of Lebanon\u2019s economic crisis into Syria poses a challenge that the regime cannot kill its way out of, and few if any other nations are likely to send assistance.\n\nExpect these three trends to bring numerous crises during this U.S. election year, shaping the challenges that will await the next administration.\n\nDon\u2019t miss anything! Sign up to get TMC\u2019s smart analysis in your inbox, three days a week.", "keywords": [], "meta_keywords": ["Iraq", "Middle East", "Iran", "Israel", "Palestine", "Palestinian territories", "Foreign policy", "American strategic interests", "Netanyahu", "West Bank", "Golan Heights", "Saudi Arabia", "UAE", "Hezbollah", "Khashoggi", "Gulf of Oman", "Syria", "Lebanon", "Yemen", "Donald Trump", "Democrats", "Republicans", "Protest", "Protests", "Arab Spring", "What's happening in Baghdad", "What's happening in the Middle East", "Sudan", "Algeria", "Oman", "Gulf states"], "tags": [], "authors": ["Marc Lynch", "January At Am"], "publish_date": "Wed Jan 1 00:00:00 2020", "summary": "", "article_html": "", "meta_description": "The Baghdad embassy assault is just the beginning. 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