Talk:2006 Atlantic hurricane season/September

message: New Invest up.  --Ajm81 18:44, 1 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Is this the most southerly of the two waves in the Mid-Atlantic? Pobbie Rarr 18:59, 1 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: I think so. It has about 24-48 hours before it clears the SAL. CrazyC83 01:37, 2 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Dvorak estimates now T1.0/1.0. -- WmE 12:51, 2 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: It's starting to look a little better organizes Hello32020 20:51, 2 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Yeah, convection is increasing though but it is till loosely organized. --IrfanFaiz 00:05, 3 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Gone!! Merged with 90L. -- WmE 13:15, 3 September 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: 98L.INVEST

message: Just appeared. -- WmE 13:30, 2 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: It's in a better location for development than 98L but less organized. I'd watch it closely though. CrazyC83 17:36, 2 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Convection has decreased though, looks like it is undergoing the poof stage. --IrfanFaiz 00:08, 3 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Invests galore! This is obviously the one to watch though. Pobbie Rarr 01:48, 3 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Recon's scheduled for 1545Z. 
I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
 1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN SEA)
  A. 03/2100Z
  B. 01HHA INVEST
  C. 03/1545Z
  D. 16.0N 067.0W
  E. 03/2000Z TO 04/0000Z
  F. SFC TO 10,000 FT – Chacor 15:23, 3 September 2006 (UTC)

text: Recon called off. Not well organized. Still at least 24 hours from becoming a depression IMO, should it get that far. CrazyC83 15:34, 3 September 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: 99L.INVEST

message: Now up on NRL . Pobbie Rarr 11:34, 5 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: I don't see much out of this blob. It needs to get a long way. CrazyC83 14:26, 5 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Looks too ragged to even get it's act together. It will fall victim of wind sheer anyways. -24.92.41.95 14:55, 5 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Agreed, and Florence will keep the environment unstable behind it. Sorry Gordon, you'll probably have to wait. I'd give it a 10% chance of development. CrazyC83 15:16, 5 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: I would give it a little higher, 25% chance of development. Hello32020 19:52, 5 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: The models like its chances.  --Holderca1 19:57, 5 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: It's on the NHC's tropical cyclone danger graphic now.Jamie|C 19:59, 5 September 2006 (UTC)

text: I'll bang my head if this becomes a storm like Gilbert. --IrfanFaiz 23:38, 5 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Ditto. :P íslenskur fellibylur #12 (samtal) 23:39, 5 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: I'll "eat my hat" if it becomes another Gilbert. That seems to be the phrase of the season, lol. →Cyclone1→ 00:21, 6 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: It would have a much better chance if this was 2005. Nonetheless, it is one name I really want to see retired. CrazyC83 00:38, 6 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: AMEN! →Cyclone1→ 01:46, 6 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Absorbed by Florence it looks like...she is eating up everything! CrazyC83 15:07, 6 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: It is expanding because it eats up everything on it's path!. --IrfanFaiz 10:46, 9 September 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: 91L.INVEST

message: ====95L.INVEST====
New Invest just appeared on NRL, just off the Carolina coast. Doesn't look bad, but it doesn't have much time to develop.CrazyC83 18:26, 17 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: New England should fear not though; even if it does develop, there is a wall of 20 knot wind shear guarding the New England coast. . On top of that, NHC doesn't seem at all concerned about it. -- §HurricaneERIC§ archive 21:15, 17 September 2006 (UTC)

text: You know, now that I think of it, this system reminds me of how last year's subtropical depression 22 looked. --Patteroast 14:14, 18 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Almost no deep convection right now, but looks very organized.  This could get itself together in a hurry if some central convection can develop.  Not sure about its future track though, none of the models initialize it. -Runningonbrains 18:10, 18 September 2006 (UTC)

text: A few models do. --Holderca1 20:04, 18 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text:  Those are all either statistical or "track-where-the-leaf-goes-in-the-stream" type models, I think... I'm not sure those are even able to dissipate a cyclone that's put in them. —AySz88\^-^ 21:28, 18 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: You lost me, those aren't predicting whether it will intensify or not. --Holderca1 22:05, 18 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text:  Well, models only predict a track for the system if they think the system will exist, right? :p —AySz88\^-^ 23:06, 18 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: He's got a point, but I think it's a moot one as NHC now says this thing is unlikely to develop and I have to agree. There's next to no convection in this thing. -- §HurricaneERIC§ archive 03:03, 19 September 2006 (UTC)

text: Meh.. shower activity is increasing, looks kinda sub-tropical, but if you ask me, it has about a snowball's chance in a microwave. But, stranger things have happened, and Mother Nature won't let us forget it. →Cyclone1→ 01:03, 20 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Gone from NRL. --Coredesat talk! 08:06, 20 September 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: Week 3

message: New Invest just appeared on NRL, just off the Carolina coast. Doesn't look bad, but it doesn't have much time to develop.CrazyC83 18:26, 17 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: New England should fear not though; even if it does develop, there is a wall of 20 knot wind shear guarding the New England coast. . On top of that, NHC doesn't seem at all concerned about it. -- §HurricaneERIC§ archive 21:15, 17 September 2006 (UTC)

text: You know, now that I think of it, this system reminds me of how last year's subtropical depression 22 looked. --Patteroast 14:14, 18 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Almost no deep convection right now, but looks very organized.  This could get itself together in a hurry if some central convection can develop.  Not sure about its future track though, none of the models initialize it. -Runningonbrains 18:10, 18 September 2006 (UTC)

text: A few models do. --Holderca1 20:04, 18 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text:  Those are all either statistical or "track-where-the-leaf-goes-in-the-stream" type models, I think... I'm not sure those are even able to dissipate a cyclone that's put in them. —AySz88\^-^ 21:28, 18 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: You lost me, those aren't predicting whether it will intensify or not. --Holderca1 22:05, 18 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text:  Well, models only predict a track for the system if they think the system will exist, right? :p —AySz88\^-^ 23:06, 18 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: He's got a point, but I think it's a moot one as NHC now says this thing is unlikely to develop and I have to agree. There's next to no convection in this thing. -- §HurricaneERIC§ archive 03:03, 19 September 2006 (UTC)

text: Meh.. shower activity is increasing, looks kinda sub-tropical, but if you ask me, it has about a snowball's chance in a microwave. But, stranger things have happened, and Mother Nature won't let us forget it. →Cyclone1→ 01:03, 20 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Gone from NRL. --Coredesat talk! 08:06, 20 September 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: 95L.INVEST

message: ====97L.INVEST (error)====
Appeared on the Navy site with no clue where it is (a sort of meteorological nomen nudum). Has somebody pressed the button too soon? The only activity apart from 96L looks too far south to develop. Update - it's now showing a photo of the same area as 96L. Possibly finger trouble?--Keith Edkins ( Talk ) 11:55, 26 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Perhaps that system has two LLCCs? Good looking system though and NHC again thinks 96/7 could become a TD soon. – Chacor 11:57, 26 September 2006 (UTC)

text: It's probably actually the same storm - FNMOC has removed 96L. – Chacor 12:12, 26 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: A reasonable explanation would be that 96L looked like it was splitting into two systems late last week, and that 97L is for the other system...but it's not likely as the positions are almost identical, and NRL's wind estimate for 97L is 10 kt. Unless they change it to something else, it's an error. --Coredesat talk! 16:52, 26 September 2006 (UTC)

text: Marked as error. bob rulz 01:43, 27 September 2006 (UTC)

text: Looks impressive on the NRL site, but NHC doesnt seem terribly interested in it. Jamie|C 14:10, 28 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: SHIPS peaks at 60 kt before weakening. – Chacor 14:13, 28 September 2006 (UTC)

text: I laughed out loud when I read this section title, because that's what I was going to put up...does look very impressive....and regardless, something to watch, as it is very close to land right now.  Also, only a few models have picked up on it, but the ones that have are split between recurving and pushing west.  Again, definately one to watch. -Runningonbrains 15:22, 28 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: It looks quite dead now... Jamie|C 16:36, 29 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Yeah, it's just a bunch of scattered clouds now. bob rulz 19:28, 29 September 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: Week 4

message: Appeared on the Navy site with no clue where it is (a sort of meteorological nomen nudum). Has somebody pressed the button too soon? The only activity apart from 96L looks too far south to develop. Update - it's now showing a photo of the same area as 96L. Possibly finger trouble?--Keith Edkins ( Talk ) 11:55, 26 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Perhaps that system has two LLCCs? Good looking system though and NHC again thinks 96/7 could become a TD soon. – Chacor 11:57, 26 September 2006 (UTC)

text: It's probably actually the same storm - FNMOC has removed 96L. – Chacor 12:12, 26 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: A reasonable explanation would be that 96L looked like it was splitting into two systems late last week, and that 97L is for the other system...but it's not likely as the positions are almost identical, and NRL's wind estimate for 97L is 10 kt. Unless they change it to something else, it's an error. --Coredesat talk! 16:52, 26 September 2006 (UTC)

text: Marked as error. bob rulz 01:43, 27 September 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: 97L.INVEST (error)

message: Appears to relate to this:
 THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE
 NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
 SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT IT
 COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING
 THE NEXT DAY OR SO. 
--Keith Edkins ( Talk ) 12:32, 28 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Looks impressive on the NRL site, but NHC doesnt seem terribly interested in it. Jamie|C 14:10, 28 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: SHIPS peaks at 60 kt before weakening. – Chacor 14:13, 28 September 2006 (UTC)

text: I laughed out loud when I read this section title, because that's what I was going to put up...does look very impressive....and regardless, something to watch, as it is very close to land right now.  Also, only a few models have picked up on it, but the ones that have are split between recurving and pushing west.  Again, definately one to watch. -Runningonbrains 15:22, 28 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: It looks quite dead now... Jamie|C 16:36, 29 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Yeah, it's just a bunch of scattered clouds now. bob rulz 19:28, 29 September 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: 97L.INVEST (for real)