Talk:2005 Atlantic hurricane season/October

message: (Discussion originally included in AoI:001, but this is the NEXT wave, first noted on 26 September).
 ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES
 WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  WHILE THE
 ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY MINIMAL...SOME SLOW
 DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS
 IT DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD.
Looks like if anything, it'll take it's time to develop. -- NSLE | Talk 06:45, 30 September 2005 (UTC)
thread_title: AoI:001-Alt

message: THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
 TROPICAL WAVE AND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES
 WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM
 ALREADY HAS A SURFACE CIRCULATION SO AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN THE
 THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL
 DEPRESSION. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
 OVER OPEN WATERS.
It's now 90L.INVEST--Keith Edkins 12:10, 30 September 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: This looks like it could develop as well...although I can't see a Cape Verde storm being more than a fish-spinner in October (but this is 2005, so rules don't mean a thing!!) BTW later today, when the October thread is added, this should be moved other there. My prediction for October: 6 named storms, 3 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes (one landfalling, the other a fish-spinner). CrazyC83 16:22, 30 September 2005 (UTC)
thread_title: 90L.INVEST

message: ...TROPICAL STORM STAN FORMS JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN
 PENINSULA...
 AT ABOUT 120 AM CDT... DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
 AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN TROPICAL
 DEPRESSION TWENTY HAD INCREASED TO 45 MPH.  THEREFORE THE SYSTEM
 HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM STAN... THE 18TH NAMED STORM OF
 THE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.  STAN IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL
 ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.
Yay! Now all we need is for TD19 to get it together.   -- RattleMan 07:11, 2 October 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: I wouldn't be surprised if it did...he just needs to survive over the Yucatan and he's got a Katrina-like opportunity to enter rapid deepening... CrazyC83 15:28, 2 October 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: The steering seems fairly clear-cut to take it into the Mexican coast, though... unless you're seeing something I'm not (in which case, please correct me!) The Great Zo 16:50, 2 October 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: The NHC seems to be becoming less confident that Stan will continue straight into Mexico, perhaps instead stopping entirely or changing direction. They also said that there's a 49% chance of rapid deepening. Not a good sign. 69.86.16.61 03:58, 4 October 2005 (UTC)

text: A special advisory is being released... the storm is upgraded to 70 MPH and pressure has fallen RAPIDLY in the last few hours. We will see a Hurricane by the time I wake up tomorrow for sure (and a new header in this section, I'm sure). The Great Zo 06:12, 4 October 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: They also saying it's moving faster - This could mean a friendlier environment for 92L to develop into. -- RattleMan 06:20, 4 October 2005 (UTC)
thread_title: Tropical Storm Stan

message: 11:30 AM TWO mentions:
 "A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
 IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT
 700 MILES EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
 UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR."
-- RattleMan 15:41, 1 October 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: They say winds are unfavorable right now... ho-hum, thats what they also said about Hurricane Rita... Scary... ...RoswellAtup 17:30, 1 October 2005 (UTC)

text: OMG DID YOU SEE THAT BLOB OVER TEXAS? THAT COULD BE A CAT 5 LOLOLOLOLOLOLOZORS!!!! OK, seriously though, the NHC has tentatively scheduled recon flights for the area near the Bahamas, and since the Navy site is down... it's possible it's an Invest by now. The Great Zo 14:43, 3 October 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: From what I've heard, if this thing moved into the Gulf of Mexico it wouldn't develop very much, if at all. Upper-level winds and high shear are unfavorable for development across the northern Gulf. I don't think we have to worry about this one too much. bob rulz 03:20, 5 October 2005 (UTC)
thread_title: AoI:10W1-01 - Bahamas

message: 11:30 AM TWO mentions:
 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN
 ASSOCIATION WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY
 BETWEEN THE AZORES AND THE CANARY ISLANDS.  WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS
 OVER RELATIVELY COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE
 MONITORED FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SIGNS OF SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
 DEVELOPMENT. 
And the TWD says:
 AN UPPER LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH NEAR 33N20W AND ODDLY 
 ENOUGH A TIGHT CORE OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN 45 NM OF 
 THE CENTER...GIVING THE SYSTEM AN ALMOST TROPICAL APPEARANCE. A 
 SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S AND SE OF THE LOW FROM THE WESTERN 
 CANARY ISLANDS SW TO 23N30W AND IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A 
 STRATOCUMULUS FIELD. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE CANARY 
 AND MADEIRA ISLANDS...BUT THIS SYSTEM IS MOSTLY COLD-CORE AND IS 
 NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME TROPICAL OVER THE COLDER WATERS OF THE NE 
 ATLC. FARTHER E...THE DEEP TROUGH IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE 
 ALL THE WAY UP TO THE STRAITS OF GIBRALTAR AND SCATTERED 
 MODERATE CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER MOROCCO AND WESTERN SAHARA 
 FROM 23N-32N BETWEEN 8W-15W.
-- RattleMan 18:06, 8 October 2005 (UTC)
thread_title: AoI:10W2A

message: I have yet to see a TWO with this much text on it this season.   Talk about active tropics! --tomf688{talk} 22:00, 6 October 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: Pasting for posterity:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE TROPICS ARE ACTIVE TODAY BUT NONE OF THE SYSTEMS POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. 
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA. THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT. DATA FROM THE CUBAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE INDICATE THAT UP TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE BEEN MEASURED IN PORTIONS OF CUBA TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.
A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A LITTLE BIT MORE THAN 1000 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIMITED AT THIS TIME BUT SOME DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA HAVE INCREASED OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. 
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TAMMY CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES WEST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA....UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT31 KWNH.
ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
Wow, amazing TWO. -- RattleMan 22:42, 6 October 2005 (UTC)

text: Makes you wonder at what point they would say there isn't any "elsewhere" left!--Keith Edkins 08:05, 7 October 2005 (UTC)
thread_title: AoI:10W2B - Large Outlook

message: If it weren't for the potentially-devastating Wilma, all would be quite tranquil right now...how long will it last? It might be a little while before we officially go Greek...there isn't even another invest out there! (Of course, it may be hard to spot with all eyes on Wilma) CrazyC83 22:03, 18 October 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: It's October. September and the peak of the season are over; we won't always be monitoring something any more. --69.86.16.61 22:07, 18 October 2005 (UTC)

text: Geeze, there's a huge hurricane getting ready to devastate anything in its way, and you're saying it's "tranquil"... --Revolución (talk) 00:50, 19 October 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: Calm down, Revolución. That's not what he said. —BazookaJoe 01:06, 19 October 2005 (UTC)
thread_title: Nothing else?

message: The NHC is decidedly un-interested in this system (for obvious reasons) but it's been declared an Invest as per the Navy site. It's currently passing through the Lesser Antilles. The Great Zo 13:12, 21 October 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: They have been mentioning it in the TWO the past several days.  --Holderca1 14:46, 21 October 2005 (UTC)

text: That wave is marching closer and closer to Wilma, and the closer it gets, the less likely development will be. If Wilma turns east or stalls, 99L should get sheared out by the outflow as it approaches. If, however, it got its act together today, it might be in business.--Mm35173 15:12, 21 October 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: Could it get sucked into Wilma? What would happen if it did? CrazyC83 16:12, 21 October 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: It would have to get quite a bit closer before it can happen.  A stronger system can absorb a weaker system if they are close enough together.  Hurricane Iris gobbled up tropical storm Karen in 1995 , and this year saw two similar events: hurricane Max absorbing tropical storm Lidia in the Pacific about a month ago, about the same time that a large low pressure system absorbed tropical storm Philippe.  B.Wind 17:50, 21 October 2005 (UTC)

text: Agreed, I can't see this blob developing into much. If it is notable for anything, all it will do is help out the big fish out there, and it will give Wilma an extra arm... CrazyC83 05:06, 22 October 2005 (UTC)
thread_title: 99L.INVEST

message: The Backup Navy site has a 91L invest on their site, and it's very close to where TD25 is, but the image is centered a little further south. What could this mean? -- RattleMan 17:35, 22 October 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: It must be some sort of error. TD25 is TD25 with nothing else really "there", and also, that would mean that they skipped 90L, since TD25 formed out of 99L. The Great Zo 17:42, 22 October 2005 (UTC)

text: I don't know if I would trust it.... It also lists TD25 as 25L.TWENTY-FIVE, which I heard means that they consider it a yet-unnamed-by-NHC tropical storm already. AySz88^-^ 17:44, 22 October 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: No I don't think that is what it means, click on the all storms button and you will see that they have the following storms 10L.TEN, 19L.NINETEEN, and 22L.TWENTY-TWO.  It just looks like the backup site uses the number rather than NONAME as the primary site does. --Holderca1 18:18, 22 October 2005 (UTC)

text: I say it is an error.  The Primary Navy site makes no mention of it. --Holderca1 18:14, 22 October 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: It's off the backup site now as well.  An error, it 'twas. --tomf688{talk} 03:12, 24 October 2005 (UTC)
thread_title: 91L.INVEST (Erroneous)

message: Now listed as Beta. Ajm81 07:07, 27 October 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: I would have never thought we would have gotten this far...Jane, stop this crazy thing! -- RattleMan 07:11, 27 October 2005 (UTC)

text: The GFDL brings it to Cat 2 at landfall and the Canadian model is on crack takes it up towards Florida. Obviously, these are the outliers - a general concensus would be a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane to hit Nicaragua. The conditions are insanely ripe, so if it hangs off the coast a bit longer, who knows how rapid it could ramp itself up. The Great Zo 13:40, 27 October 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: Christ, I thought people were kidding when they guess in Greeks. Good God this can't be happening. The West Pacific seems to have moved to the Atlantic. Let's hope it's not here to stay. I feel like I'm in a car going 150 mph with a murderous psycopath at the wheel. This season has drifted well past insane. -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde 13:43, 27 October 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: Dude, could you not mention "150 mph," please?  Might as well chant "Bloody Mary" into a mirror at midnight.  --DavidK93 14:06, 27 October 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: It's better than "150 knots" though...although I'm sure this sorority wants to get there, they don't have much time (thank God!) CrazyC83 15:32, 27 October 2005 (UTC)

text: 60 mph as of 2 pm so most of the strengthening forecast for twelve hours has happened in three.I tend to think of Alpha,Beta,etc. as one co-ed fraternity/sorority of which the storms are members...here's hoping pledge week is a dud!--Louis E./le@put.com/12.144.5.2 18:47, 27 October 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: I alternate it as if the gender run continued...like Vince (M) - Wilma (F) - Alpha (M) - Beta (F) - Gamma (M) - Delta (F) - etc. CrazyC83 19:12, 27 October 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: Yes,but Beta is not a sorority all by herself,she's a sister of the Greek Letter Society.--Louis E./le@put.com/12.144.5.2 19:50, 27 October 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: What's with the Beta sorority jokes? Sororities either have two or three Greek letters. Is there some "joke" I missed? Mike H (Talking is hot) 20:44, 27 October 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: It could be a short-form being used for something like Beta Beta Beta... CrazyC83 22:11, 27 October 2005 (UTC)

text: See above.  Basically, during the initial discussion about the Greek letters, someone started calling them fraternities.  However, that would be sexist so CrazyC decided to continue the alternation of genders, hence the Alpha fraternity and the Beta sorority. PK9 23:13, 27 October 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: But my point is that the hurricanes are (like the ones with people's names) best considered as individuals who are members of a co-ed fraternity/sorority.Not each of them being a collective group.--Louis E./le@put.com/12.144.5.2 23:50, 27 October 2005 (UTC)

text: At this point, anything's possible. Category 5, anyone? (Please, no...) CrazyC83 22:10, 27 October 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: Ahhh! No! Crazy C, don't take this the wrong way, but everytime you mentioned Category 5 in a storm discussion, something bad happened. It's like in the old Western movies where the good guys walk into town and say, "It's quiet...too quiet." I'm still hoping that it won't get any worse than a low end Category 3. Or, better yet, upwell some cold water and weaken. -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde 22:23, 27 October 2005 (UTC)

text: Wilma, Rita, and Katrina all stalled out at a certain level for a while. As a caveat, so did Lee... but you see what I'm saying is possible. The Great Zo 16:24, 28 October 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: Almost a hurricane now, up to 70 mph (and they say it is a conservative estimate). Special advisory at 1 am, anyone? CrazyC83 03:13, 29 October 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: Ouch, this could be really bad. Look at the latest forecast track. It moves it excruciatingly slowly over Nicaragua, Honduras, and Guatemala! That's not good at all. bob rulz 04:05, 29 October 2005 (UTC)
thread_title: Tropical Storm Beta

message: Beta was just upgraded to Category 3.  Ajm81 08:59, 30 October 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: Yes they did...since no other storm even came relatively close to Category 3 (Irene was the only Cat 2 and that was a struggle to reach it)... CrazyC83 15:25, 30 October 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: And two separate sections below have formed to ask and answer that same question.Meanwhile Beta is now a bare Category 1 at Advisory 15A and will probably be a TS for Advisory 16.--Louis E./le@put.com/12.144.5.2 18:32, 30 October 2005 (UTC)

text: Can you say T-Y-P-O? -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde - archive 04:15, 31 October 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: roffle Mike H (Talking is hot) 04:26, 31 October 2005 (UTC)
thread_title: Major Hurricane Beta

message: I have updated the info on Beta and the ACE for 2100UTC.  I would not mind someone double-checking the ACE.  Based on the advisory figure of 50kt winds, I added 0.25 * 104 kt2 to the previous ACE of 0.325.  --EMS | Talk 22:17, 27 October 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: Intensity as of the 11 PM EDT advisory was 55 knots...time to update ACE again.--L.E./12.144.5.2 02:53, 28 October 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: Maximum sustained winds as of the 10 AM EST Oct 30 2005 advisory were 90 Mph... 80 knots? But the landfall intensity was 90 knots according to the Discussion of the same time. I used the advisory numbers for the ACE calcs, double check me please. Is this the right number to use? Siebren 15:37, 30 October 2005 (UTC)

text: Please note that the Advisory links won't work until the next advisory is issued. Tompw 08:53, 28 October 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: With the Discussion 15 numbers (not yet reflected in the article) Beta has passed Franklin to enter the season's Top Ten.--Louis E./le@put.com/12.144.5.2 15:45, 30 October 2005 (UTC)
thread_title: ACE calcs

message: The area east of the islands is now an invest. Floater 2 is now on it. We'll see if it pulls an Alpha. Looks like there is a race for the next storm, but I think development will be slower than 90L. Hurricanehink 14:24, 26 October 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: I'd have to say that this thing won't do much...but I could be wrong. CrazyC83 15:55, 26 October 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: The NHC says it's entering a more favorable environment, but it appears to have lost a lot of convection. -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde 13:47, 27 October 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: In other words, it is coming into that area dying, so it has to start from scratch...can't see this blob even coming close to becoming Gamma... CrazyC83 15:33, 27 October 2005 (UTC)
thread_title: 91L.INVEST