Talk:List of storms in the 2006 Pacific hurricane season/October

message: Not officially on NRL, so no official "INVEST" designation, but SSD has started Satellite Fixes on 97C (which has been appearing in TWOCPs recently). – Chacor 15:05, 6 October 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: "97C"

message: TD15E on NRL. -- RattleMan 03:11, 9 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Now TD15-E officially. CrazyC83 03:41, 9 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Maybe I'm just psychic ;). -- §HurricaneERIC§ archive 05:19, 9 October 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: Tropical Depression Fifteen-E

message: NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL STORM FIFTEEN (EP152006) ON 20061009 1200 UTC 
– Chacor 14:02, 9 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: And indeed, we have Norman. At 40 knots, too. – Chacor 14:50, 9 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Hey, what's up Nor! Howya doin'? Long time no see. I'm goin' to Baja this weekend, how about you? Water too cold? Wind shear too high? I'm sorry about that. I guess you can't crash any parties over there. Too bad. See ya! -- §HurricaneERIC§ archive 18:20, 9 October 2006 (UTC)

text: And.... gone. Jamie|C 12:35, 12 October 2006 (UTC)

text: If it regenerates from absorption, how it would be handled? As Norman, or as 17-E? juan andrés 18:15, 14 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: It would be 17-E, same thing that happened from TD 10 in the Atlantic last year when TD 12 abosrbed the remnants of it. 24.85.160.56 18:55, 14 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Don't think so. If they were to give it a new designation they would probably have declared a new INVEST. Even the TCFA was issued under Norman's number (15). – Chacor 02:52, 15 October 2006 (UTC)

text: The key here is that the new system is consolidating around the remnant low-level circulation of Norman. Norman's LLCC = Norman's name and number. – Chacor 07:49, 15 October 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: Tropical Storm Norman

message: =====99E.INVEST=====
99E at 10.5N 121W. -- RattleMan 00:47, 6 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. - グリフオーザー 04:25, 7 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Looking really promising. Lots of very deep convection near the center. -- WmE 14:41, 7 October 2006 (UTC)

text:  SHIPS 12Z does not make it a hurricane, but develops it into quite a strong tropical storm. For some reason LBAR suddenly pushes the centre inland towards Mexico (130.1W at 72hr, 123.8W at 96, and inland Mexico at 120hr) – Chacor 14:46, 7 October 2006 (UTC)

text: This looks close to tropical depression status. bob rulz 18:57, 7 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: If it isn't already there. No signs of 15E.NONAME though... CrazyC83 19:43, 7 October 2006 (UTC)

text: That's an outdated one from August. – Chacor 04:21, 8 October 2006 (UTC)

text: (unofficial) 16E.NONAME appears on the NRL website. - グリフオーザー 20:23, 9 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Yeah just saw it too. Conditions are bad, let's see if it can become Olivia. -- WmE 20:25, 9 October 2006 (UTC)

text: Tracker supports Tropical Storm status throughout the five day outlook. - グリフオーザー 21:05, 9 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Barely though. Olivia (assuming it reaches such) will have a tough time... CrazyC83 01:11, 10 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: 16 is proving to be a bad number in the East Pacific basin. Since 2000, three years (02, 04, and 05) out of five had Tropical Depression 16-Es that never reached storm status. Jake52 My talk 13:12, 10 October 2006 (UTC)

text: It be the first crossover since 1996.HurricaneCraze32 aka Mitchazenia 17:52, 12 October 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: 16E.Olivia

message: 99E at 10.5N 121W. -- RattleMan 00:47, 6 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. - グリフオーザー 04:25, 7 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Looking really promising. Lots of very deep convection near the center. -- WmE 14:41, 7 October 2006 (UTC)

text:  SHIPS 12Z does not make it a hurricane, but develops it into quite a strong tropical storm. For some reason LBAR suddenly pushes the centre inland towards Mexico (130.1W at 72hr, 123.8W at 96, and inland Mexico at 120hr) – Chacor 14:46, 7 October 2006 (UTC)

text: This looks close to tropical depression status. bob rulz 18:57, 7 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: If it isn't already there. No signs of 15E.NONAME though... CrazyC83 19:43, 7 October 2006 (UTC)

text: That's an outdated one from August. – Chacor 04:21, 8 October 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: 99E.INVEST

message: :(unofficial) 16E.NONAME appears on the NRL website. - グリフオーザー 20:23, 9 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Yeah just saw it too. Conditions are bad, let's see if it can become Olivia. -- WmE 20:25, 9 October 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: 16E.NONAME

message: NHC confirms that we have TD 16-E. -- WmE 20:45, 9 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Tracker supports Tropical Storm status throughout the five day outlook. - グリフオーザー 21:05, 9 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Barely though. Olivia (assuming it reaches such) will have a tough time... CrazyC83 01:11, 10 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: 16 is proving to be a bad number in the East Pacific basin. Since 2000, three years (02, 04, and 05) out of five had Tropical Depression 16-Es that never reached storm status. Jake52 My talk 13:12, 10 October 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: Tropical Depression Sixteen-E

message: Olivia and 40kts according to the NRL and model runs:
TROPICAL STORM     OLIVIA (EP162006) ON 20061010  1200 UTC
--Ajm81 13:28, 10 October 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: 16E.OLIVIA

message: Confirmed.~ HurricaneCraze32 aka Mitchazenia 19:03, 10 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: It be the first crossover since 1996.HurricaneCraze32 aka Mitchazenia 17:52, 12 October 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: Tropical Storm Olivia

message: ====04C.NONAME====
=====97C.INVEST=====
On NRL now. 11.0N 162.5W. --Ajm81 20:22, 8 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: I'm not sure this is the same system, actually. The last SSD fix was 12.3N 167.3W. --Coredesat (talk) 20:24, 8 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Moved it down since it probably isn't the same one. --Ajm81 20:25, 8 October 2006 (UTC)

text: TCFA 670 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU, HAWAII - グリフオーザー 13:58, 9 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: First time we've hit 4C since 1997 i believe-if it becomes 4C that is.HurricaneCraze32 aka Mitchazenia 14:02, 9 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: It isn't a number yet, but it's pretty close. It looks very impressive on the satellite. -- §HurricaneERIC§ archive 18:22, 9 October 2006 (UTC)

text: More intresting- The East/Central Pacific is bubbling in activity again.HurricaneCraze32 aka Mitchazenia 23:25, 9 October 2006 (UTC)

text: Cyclone Formation Alert was cancelled do to weakening any further development will be slow. - グリフオーザー 17:17, 10 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Deja vu in the Central Pacific. -- §HurricaneERIC§ archive 21:52, 10 October 2006 (UTC)

text: Looks like it won't develop in a tropical storm either. The call for dissipation within 48 hours. -- WmE 21:16, 13 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: It's not easy for CPac systems to form. It has a chance though. CrazyC83 21:53, 13 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Strengthen or not, still the first time since 1997 we've had a 4C.Mitchazenia 2006 22:03, 13 October 2006 (UTC)

text: Can't see it being an Invest much longer; I think we might have 17-E this evening. CrazyC83 21:54, 13 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: If it becomes Paul, it will be the most active season since 2003 with Patricia.Mitchazenia 2006 22:05, 13 October 2006 (UTC)

text: And we have a problem, this may become 5-C instead of 17-E as it is very close to the 140.0W line for the Central Pacific.Mitchazenia 2006 22:14, 13 October 2006 (UTC)

text: It's gone from FNMOC page. But if it was very probable to form, why it dissipated? Take a look. juan andrés 02:43, 14 October 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: Week 2

message: =====97C.INVEST=====
On NRL now. 11.0N 162.5W. --Ajm81 20:22, 8 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: I'm not sure this is the same system, actually. The last SSD fix was 12.3N 167.3W. --Coredesat (talk) 20:24, 8 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Moved it down since it probably isn't the same one. --Ajm81 20:25, 8 October 2006 (UTC)

text: TCFA 670 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU, HAWAII - グリフオーザー 13:58, 9 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: First time we've hit 4C since 1997 i believe-if it becomes 4C that is.HurricaneCraze32 aka Mitchazenia 14:02, 9 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: It isn't a number yet, but it's pretty close. It looks very impressive on the satellite. -- §HurricaneERIC§ archive 18:22, 9 October 2006 (UTC)

text: More intresting- The East/Central Pacific is bubbling in activity again.HurricaneCraze32 aka Mitchazenia 23:25, 9 October 2006 (UTC)

text: Cyclone Formation Alert was cancelled do to weakening any further development will be slow. - グリフオーザー 17:17, 10 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Deja vu in the Central Pacific. -- §HurricaneERIC§ archive 21:52, 10 October 2006 (UTC)

text: Looks like it won't develop in a tropical storm either. The call for dissipation within 48 hours. -- WmE 21:16, 13 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: It's not easy for CPac systems to form. It has a chance though. CrazyC83 21:53, 13 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Strengthen or not, still the first time since 1997 we've had a 4C.Mitchazenia 2006 22:03, 13 October 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: 04C.NONAME

message: On NRL now. 11.0N 162.5W. --Ajm81 20:22, 8 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: I'm not sure this is the same system, actually. The last SSD fix was 12.3N 167.3W. --Coredesat (talk) 20:24, 8 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Moved it down since it probably isn't the same one. --Ajm81 20:25, 8 October 2006 (UTC)

text: TCFA 670 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU, HAWAII - グリフオーザー 13:58, 9 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: First time we've hit 4C since 1997 i believe-if it becomes 4C that is.HurricaneCraze32 aka Mitchazenia 14:02, 9 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: It isn't a number yet, but it's pretty close. It looks very impressive on the satellite. -- §HurricaneERIC§ archive 18:22, 9 October 2006 (UTC)

text: More intresting- The East/Central Pacific is bubbling in activity again.HurricaneCraze32 aka Mitchazenia 23:25, 9 October 2006 (UTC)

text: Cyclone Formation Alert was cancelled do to weakening any further development will be slow. - グリフオーザー 17:17, 10 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Deja vu in the Central Pacific. -- §HurricaneERIC§ archive 21:52, 10 October 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: 97C.INVEST

message: NRL has 04C.NONAME. --Ajm81 19:35, 13 October 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: 04C.NONAME

message: Official now. --Ajm81 21:05, 13 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Looks like it won't develop in a tropical storm either. The call for dissipation within 48 hours. -- WmE 21:16, 13 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: It's not easy for CPac systems to form. It has a chance though. CrazyC83 21:53, 13 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Strengthen or not, still the first time since 1997 we've had a 4C.Mitchazenia 2006 22:03, 13 October 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: Tropical Depression Four-C

message: New invest up at about 12.1N 139.5W. --Ajm81 01:48, 13 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Can't see it being an Invest much longer; I think we might have 17-E this evening. CrazyC83 21:54, 13 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: If it becomes Paul, it will be the most active season since 2003 with Patricia.Mitchazenia 2006 22:05, 13 October 2006 (UTC)

text: And we have a problem, this may become 5-C instead of 17-E as it is very close to the 140.0W line for the Central Pacific.Mitchazenia 2006 22:14, 13 October 2006 (UTC)

text: It's gone from FNMOC page. But if it was very probable to form, why it dissipated? Take a look. juan andrés 02:43, 14 October 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: 91E.INVEST

message: ====98C.INVEST====
4N 178W - グリフオーザー 02:45, 17 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: 4N? Seems kinda close to the equator for that area. It doesn't have much time to develop in the CPAC. →Cyclone1→ 15:08, 17 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Au contraire. It's moving ENE. Plenty of time for development in the CPac. – Chacor 15:11, 17 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text:  Models have it heading north and turning west in 48 hours. --Ajm81 15:18, 17 October 2006 (UTC)

text: It's the one with the Special Tropical Disturbance Statement out on it. – Chacor 13:19, 19 October 2006 (UTC)

text: Nice. Be (my dad's name) Paul-that is if it strengthens.Mitchazenia V3.0 22:29, 20 October 2006 (UTC)

text: NHC confirms. They predict it to become a hurricane before hitting northwestern Mexico. Hurricanehink (talk) 15:06, 21 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Yes, but how strong is the question. It's almost in the same position as a certain other storm, at about the same time. But, I don't see it getting nearly that strong. →Cyclone1→ 14:20, 22 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Well, then again, I take that back, no it isn't. But it was the same time. →Cyclone1→ 14:22, 22 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: 65 mph winds at 2:00 PST.Mitchazenia V3.0 20:46, 22 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Looks like it's going to be a long time before it hits Mexico, because it still looks like it isn't getting much closer to land. Although the forecasts steer it towards land, it's still only a tropical storm, but probably will strengthen soon. Some forecasts predict it's going to affect the Baja California Peninsula. Keep in mind that two hurricanes, John and Lane, have already affected that area, and if Paul hits Mexico, that would be 3 hurricanes in a row that affected the same area of land, quite rare especially in the East Pacific. AstroHurricane001 21:16, 22 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Tough call, since it is highly prone to steering currents. A slight change can turn it to sea. CrazyC83 21:47, 22 October 2006 (UTC)

text: Now quickly up to a Category 2. Chance of becoming a major hurricane. Maybe an article should be made soon? CrazyC83 14:24, 23 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: No info, no article. It's simple, really. We can prepare one, but at this stage I haven't seen a single news article on specific preparations for Paul. – Chacor 14:25, 23 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Yea, unless lots of preparations are made, we should probably wait for the damage reports, or unless it gets unexpectedly strong. Someone on another board drew a comparison to Hurricane Kenna, which is certainly possible. Hurricanehink (talk) 14:36, 23 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Well, should we get a sandbox together so it won't take a long time later on? Hurricanehink (talk) 14:48, 23 October 2006 (UTC)

text: That would surpass NOAA's May 22 forecast with 6 E.Pacific MH (Bud,Daniel, Ileana, John & Lane and probably Paul).Mitchazenia V3.0 16:03, 23 October 2006 (UTC)

text: Or maybe its simply a major eyewall replacement cycle for Paul or simply due to absorbing some cool water. — Alastor Moody (T + C + U) 23:41, 23 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Shear according to the disco. Hurricanehink (talk) 23:42, 23 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Really? cuz I thought it was an ERC (eyewall replacement cycle) since Paul's once tiny eye had dissapeared. — Alastor Moody (T + C + U) 23:47, 23 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Yea, the eye disappeared because of the shear. The discussions provide good information, and should be read before making any conclusions about the storm. Hurricanehink (talk) 23:55, 23 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Oh. Well Mexico could then be spared from Paul's worst, I was kind-a afriad if Paul would be a re-run on Mexico but since the NHC forecasters still sees Paul hitting Mexico in 2 days, it might be a TS at the time, according to the 3-day forecast. And also, thanx for the answer. — Alastor Moody (T + C + U) 00:09, 24 October 2006 (UTC)

text: Is that a forecast from a weather bureau? If not, it shouldn't be here. --Coredesat 23:58, 25 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: I doubt that but it could still be a possibility, just as an opinion. Also, I think Paul must have already made landfall in Mexico already. — Alastor Moody (T + C + U) 01:32, 26 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Could Paul have made landfall and retreated back over water? Those are usually the worst type of storms in the Pacific due to the mountainous terrain. CrazyC83 02:47, 26 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Who knows but the NRL infared and water vapor images show all of its circulation over Mexico. — Alastor Moody (T + C + U) 05:32, 26 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: And also, I don't know if Paul deserved an article because it acted like the "big onne" in the first two days of its life until out of a clear blue sky, it fell down to shreads shreaded by wing shreaders. But if Hink manages to make a decent, or standard aricle, that would be good to by expanding the wiki. — Alastor Moody (T + C + U) 06:10, 26 October 2006 (UTC)

text: I don't see any Paul. Maybe it's been absorbed into the low over the north. It actually looks like a cold front. Meanwhile, there still seems to be many areas of possible cyclone development on that map. AstroHurricane001 12:56, 27 October 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: Week 3

message: 4N 178W - グリフオーザー 02:45, 17 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: 4N? Seems kinda close to the equator for that area. It doesn't have much time to develop in the CPAC. →Cyclone1→ 15:08, 17 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Au contraire. It's moving ENE. Plenty of time for development in the CPac. – Chacor 15:11, 17 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text:  Models have it heading north and turning west in 48 hours. --Ajm81 15:18, 17 October 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: 98C.INVEST

message: =====92E.INVEST=====
14.9N 96.6W. --Ajm81 13:14, 19 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: It's the one with the Special Tropical Disturbance Statement out on it. – Chacor 13:19, 19 October 2006 (UTC)

text: Nice. Be (my dad's name) Paul-that is if it strengthens.Mitchazenia V3.0 22:29, 20 October 2006 (UTC)

text: NHC confirms. They predict it to become a hurricane before hitting northwestern Mexico. Hurricanehink (talk) 15:06, 21 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Yes, but how strong is the question. It's almost in the same position as a certain other storm, at about the same time. But, I don't see it getting nearly that strong. →Cyclone1→ 14:20, 22 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Well, then again, I take that back, no it isn't. But it was the same time. →Cyclone1→ 14:22, 22 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: 65 mph winds at 2:00 PST.Mitchazenia V3.0 20:46, 22 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Looks like it's going to be a long time before it hits Mexico, because it still looks like it isn't getting much closer to land. Although the forecasts steer it towards land, it's still only a tropical storm, but probably will strengthen soon. Some forecasts predict it's going to affect the Baja California Peninsula. Keep in mind that two hurricanes, John and Lane, have already affected that area, and if Paul hits Mexico, that would be 3 hurricanes in a row that affected the same area of land, quite rare especially in the East Pacific. AstroHurricane001 21:16, 22 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Tough call, since it is highly prone to steering currents. A slight change can turn it to sea. CrazyC83 21:47, 22 October 2006 (UTC)

text: Now quickly up to a Category 2. Chance of becoming a major hurricane. Maybe an article should be made soon? CrazyC83 14:24, 23 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: No info, no article. It's simple, really. We can prepare one, but at this stage I haven't seen a single news article on specific preparations for Paul. – Chacor 14:25, 23 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Yea, unless lots of preparations are made, we should probably wait for the damage reports, or unless it gets unexpectedly strong. Someone on another board drew a comparison to Hurricane Kenna, which is certainly possible. Hurricanehink (talk) 14:36, 23 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Well, should we get a sandbox together so it won't take a long time later on? Hurricanehink (talk) 14:48, 23 October 2006 (UTC)

text: That would surpass NOAA's May 22 forecast with 6 E.Pacific MH (Bud,Daniel, Ileana, John & Lane and probably Paul).Mitchazenia V3.0 16:03, 23 October 2006 (UTC)

text: Or maybe its simply a major eyewall replacement cycle for Paul or simply due to absorbing some cool water. — Alastor Moody (T + C + U) 23:41, 23 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Shear according to the disco. Hurricanehink (talk) 23:42, 23 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Really? cuz I thought it was an ERC (eyewall replacement cycle) since Paul's once tiny eye had dissapeared. — Alastor Moody (T + C + U) 23:47, 23 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Yea, the eye disappeared because of the shear. The discussions provide good information, and should be read before making any conclusions about the storm. Hurricanehink (talk) 23:55, 23 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Oh. Well Mexico could then be spared from Paul's worst, I was kind-a afriad if Paul would be a re-run on Mexico but since the NHC forecasters still sees Paul hitting Mexico in 2 days, it might be a TS at the time, according to the 3-day forecast. And also, thanx for the answer. — Alastor Moody (T + C + U) 00:09, 24 October 2006 (UTC)

text: Is that a forecast from a weather bureau? If not, it shouldn't be here. --Coredesat 23:58, 25 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: I doubt that but it could still be a possibility, just as an opinion. Also, I think Paul must have already made landfall in Mexico already. — Alastor Moody (T + C + U) 01:32, 26 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Could Paul have made landfall and retreated back over water? Those are usually the worst type of storms in the Pacific due to the mountainous terrain. CrazyC83 02:47, 26 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Who knows but the NRL infared and water vapor images show all of its circulation over Mexico. — Alastor Moody (T + C + U) 05:32, 26 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: And also, I don't know if Paul deserved an article because it acted like the "big onne" in the first two days of its life until out of a clear blue sky, it fell down to shreads shreaded by wing shreaders. But if Hink manages to make a decent, or standard aricle, that would be good to by expanding the wiki. — Alastor Moody (T + C + U) 06:10, 26 October 2006 (UTC)

text: I don't see any Paul. Maybe it's been absorbed into the low over the north. It actually looks like a cold front. Meanwhile, there still seems to be many areas of possible cyclone development on that map. AstroHurricane001 12:56, 27 October 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: 17E.Paul

message: 14.9N 96.6W. --Ajm81 13:14, 19 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: It's the one with the Special Tropical Disturbance Statement out on it. – Chacor 13:19, 19 October 2006 (UTC)

text: Nice. Be (my dad's name) Paul-that is if it strengthens.Mitchazenia V3.0 22:29, 20 October 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: 92E.INVEST

message: On NRL and models. --Ajm81 07:43, 21 October 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: 17E.NONAME

message: NHC confirms. --Ajm81 08:28, 21 October 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: Tropical Depression Seventeen-E

message: Models initialise at 35 kt. NRL agrees. – Chacor 13:36, 21 October 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: 17E.PAUL

message: :NHC confirms. They predict it to become a hurricane before hitting northwestern Mexico. Hurricanehink (talk) 15:06, 21 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Yes, but how strong is the question. It's almost in the same position as a certain other storm, at about the same time. But, I don't see it getting nearly that strong. →Cyclone1→ 14:20, 22 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Well, then again, I take that back, no it isn't. But it was the same time. →Cyclone1→ 14:22, 22 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: 65 mph winds at 2:00 PST.Mitchazenia V3.0 20:46, 22 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Looks like it's going to be a long time before it hits Mexico, because it still looks like it isn't getting much closer to land. Although the forecasts steer it towards land, it's still only a tropical storm, but probably will strengthen soon. Some forecasts predict it's going to affect the Baja California Peninsula. Keep in mind that two hurricanes, John and Lane, have already affected that area, and if Paul hits Mexico, that would be 3 hurricanes in a row that affected the same area of land, quite rare especially in the East Pacific. AstroHurricane001 21:16, 22 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Tough call, since it is highly prone to steering currents. A slight change can turn it to sea. CrazyC83 21:47, 22 October 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: Tropical Storm Paul

message: Models initialized at 75 70 kts. --Ajm81 00:39, 23 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Now quickly up to a Category 2. Chance of becoming a major hurricane. Maybe an article should be made soon? CrazyC83 14:24, 23 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: No info, no article. It's simple, really. We can prepare one, but at this stage I haven't seen a single news article on specific preparations for Paul. – Chacor 14:25, 23 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Yea, unless lots of preparations are made, we should probably wait for the damage reports, or unless it gets unexpectedly strong. Someone on another board drew a comparison to Hurricane Kenna, which is certainly possible. Hurricanehink (talk) 14:36, 23 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Well, should we get a sandbox together so it won't take a long time later on? Hurricanehink (talk) 14:48, 23 October 2006 (UTC)

text: That would surpass NOAA's May 22 forecast with 6 E.Pacific MH (Bud,Daniel, Ileana, John & Lane and probably Paul).Mitchazenia V3.0 16:03, 23 October 2006 (UTC)

text: Or maybe its simply a major eyewall replacement cycle for Paul or simply due to absorbing some cool water. — Alastor Moody (T + C + U) 23:41, 23 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Shear according to the disco. Hurricanehink (talk) 23:42, 23 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Really? cuz I thought it was an ERC (eyewall replacement cycle) since Paul's once tiny eye had dissapeared. — Alastor Moody (T + C + U) 23:47, 23 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Yea, the eye disappeared because of the shear. The discussions provide good information, and should be read before making any conclusions about the storm. Hurricanehink (talk) 23:55, 23 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Oh. Well Mexico could then be spared from Paul's worst, I was kind-a afriad if Paul would be a re-run on Mexico but since the NHC forecasters still sees Paul hitting Mexico in 2 days, it might be a TS at the time, according to the 3-day forecast. And also, thanx for the answer. — Alastor Moody (T + C + U) 00:09, 24 October 2006 (UTC)

text: Is that a forecast from a weather bureau? If not, it shouldn't be here. --Coredesat 23:58, 25 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: I doubt that but it could still be a possibility, just as an opinion. Also, I think Paul must have already made landfall in Mexico already. — Alastor Moody (T + C + U) 01:32, 26 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Could Paul have made landfall and retreated back over water? Those are usually the worst type of storms in the Pacific due to the mountainous terrain. CrazyC83 02:47, 26 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Who knows but the NRL infared and water vapor images show all of its circulation over Mexico. — Alastor Moody (T + C + U) 05:32, 26 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: And also, I don't know if Paul deserved an article because it acted like the "big onne" in the first two days of its life until out of a clear blue sky, it fell down to shreads shreaded by wing shreaders. But if Hink manages to make a decent, or standard aricle, that would be good to by expanding the wiki. — Alastor Moody (T + C + U) 06:10, 26 October 2006 (UTC)

text: I don't see any Paul. Maybe it's been absorbed into the low over the north. It actually looks like a cold front. Meanwhile, there still seems to be many areas of possible cyclone development on that map. AstroHurricane001 12:56, 27 October 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: Hurricane Paul

message: ====18E.NONAME====
=====93E.INVEST=====
Navy site now has a 93E located near 15.9N 102.3W. --Coredesat 19:38, 25 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Nice. Could be a 18E unless that shear kills 93E like what happened to Paul. — Alastor Moody (T + C + U) 02:03, 26 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Looking like 18E soon...the NHC has put out a note on the marine graphic. CrazyC83 02:48, 26 October 2006 (UTC)

text: 2000 had 19 storms total, which is the most recent example of 18+ (excluding CPAC). The season will probably end some time in November, mainly due to increasing upper level winds. IMHO Paul is probably the last storm to threaten northwestern Mexico. It can't be ruled out for a southern Mexico strike, as seen with Rosa (00) or Rick (97). El Nino is probably forming, and as of now no one knows how strong it is going to get. You never know, the El Nino could suddenly abate once December starts, or it could continue to intensify. Hurricanehink (talk) 03:33, 26 October 2006 (UTC)

text: It's a really tiny storm. Good kitty 04:50, 26 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Actually the El Nino conditions have made it much more favoritable for EPac storms, but the problem is wind shear which killed Paul and several previous INVESTs within the last month. But without the El Nino, this uear could have been possibly one of the 10 top most inactive EPac hurricane season in the records. — Alastor Moody (T + C + U) 05:38, 26 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Please avoid "what-if" speculation. – Chacor 13:30, 26 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Oops... my apologizies. Its just that in science class I was studying about predictions and hypothesis that got me nuts. — Alastor Moody (T + C + U) 19:48, 26 October 2006 (UTC)

text: The NHC says no Hurricane Rosa is in sight.Mitchazenia V4.0 17:52, 26 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: But with a possibility of a tropical storm Rosa with 50 kt winds. — Alastor Moody (T + C + U) 19:49, 26 October 2006 (UTC)

text: 60 knots (70 mph) not 50 knots (60 mph).Mitchazenia V4.0 19:58, 26 October 2006 (UTC)

text: Then this should help. The NHC isn't expecting Rosa anymore.Mitchazenia V4.0 18:42, 27 October 2006 (UTC)

text: No it ain't-Ivan did better than that.Mitchazenia V4.0 17:54, 26 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Ekeka did even better. All positions below 11°N, Category 3, and in January and February. Based on that precedent, it is possible that this could become a system even at that latitude. Late season seems to be a popular time for systems to form in the Central Pacific. Miss Madeline | Talk to Madeline 18:42, 26 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Depending on wheter its going to strength all depends on the amount of wind shear cuz three depressions with one hat was forecasted to be a re-run of Ioke all died due to wind shearing. — Alastor Moody (T + C + U) 19:51, 26 October 2006 (UTC)

text: CPHC: An area of disturbed weather is located about 775 miles south of Hilo, Hawaii. An elongated, low pressure area has formed within this area. This system appears to be nearly stationary. There is a slight chance for some slow development within this area during the next couple of days. Mitchazenia V4.0 22:12, 26 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: There's still a lot of convection left, although I'm not sure whether it's strengthening or weakening. AstroHurricane001 13:08, 27 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Quite a low latitude to develop at... CrazyC83 03:34, 28 October 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: Week 4

message: =====93E.INVEST=====
Navy site now has a 93E located near 15.9N 102.3W. --Coredesat 19:38, 25 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Nice. Could be a 18E unless that shear kills 93E like what happened to Paul. — Alastor Moody (T + C + U) 02:03, 26 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Looking like 18E soon...the NHC has put out a note on the marine graphic. CrazyC83 02:48, 26 October 2006 (UTC)

text: 2000 had 19 storms total, which is the most recent example of 18+ (excluding CPAC). The season will probably end some time in November, mainly due to increasing upper level winds. IMHO Paul is probably the last storm to threaten northwestern Mexico. It can't be ruled out for a southern Mexico strike, as seen with Rosa (00) or Rick (97). El Nino is probably forming, and as of now no one knows how strong it is going to get. You never know, the El Nino could suddenly abate once December starts, or it could continue to intensify. Hurricanehink (talk) 03:33, 26 October 2006 (UTC)

text: It's a really tiny storm. Good kitty 04:50, 26 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Actually the El Nino conditions have made it much more favoritable for EPac storms, but the problem is wind shear which killed Paul and several previous INVESTs within the last month. But without the El Nino, this uear could have been possibly one of the 10 top most inactive EPac hurricane season in the records. — Alastor Moody (T + C + U) 05:38, 26 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Please avoid "what-if" speculation. – Chacor 13:30, 26 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Oops... my apologizies. Its just that in science class I was studying about predictions and hypothesis that got me nuts. — Alastor Moody (T + C + U) 19:48, 26 October 2006 (UTC)

text: The NHC says no Hurricane Rosa is in sight.Mitchazenia V4.0 17:52, 26 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: But with a possibility of a tropical storm Rosa with 50 kt winds. — Alastor Moody (T + C + U) 19:49, 26 October 2006 (UTC)

text: 60 knots (70 mph) not 50 knots (60 mph).Mitchazenia V4.0 19:58, 26 October 2006 (UTC)

text: Then this should help. The NHC isn't expecting Rosa anymore.Mitchazenia V4.0 18:42, 27 October 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: 18E.NONAME

message: Navy site now has a 93E located near 15.9N 102.3W. --Coredesat 19:38, 25 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Nice. Could be a 18E unless that shear kills 93E like what happened to Paul. — Alastor Moody (T + C + U) 02:03, 26 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Looking like 18E soon...the NHC has put out a note on the marine graphic. CrazyC83 02:48, 26 October 2006 (UTC)

text: 2000 had 19 storms total, which is the most recent example of 18+ (excluding CPAC). The season will probably end some time in November, mainly due to increasing upper level winds. IMHO Paul is probably the last storm to threaten northwestern Mexico. It can't be ruled out for a southern Mexico strike, as seen with Rosa (00) or Rick (97). El Nino is probably forming, and as of now no one knows how strong it is going to get. You never know, the El Nino could suddenly abate once December starts, or it could continue to intensify. Hurricanehink (talk) 03:33, 26 October 2006 (UTC)

text: It's a really tiny storm. Good kitty 04:50, 26 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Actually the El Nino conditions have made it much more favoritable for EPac storms, but the problem is wind shear which killed Paul and several previous INVESTs within the last month. But without the El Nino, this uear could have been possibly one of the 10 top most inactive EPac hurricane season in the records. — Alastor Moody (T + C + U) 05:38, 26 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Please avoid "what-if" speculation. – Chacor 13:30, 26 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Oops... my apologizies. Its just that in science class I was studying about predictions and hypothesis that got me nuts. — Alastor Moody (T + C + U) 19:48, 26 October 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: 93E.INVEST

message: TD18-E on NRL! -- RattleMan 13:49, 26 October 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: 18E.NONAME

message: Le confirmed.Mitchazenia V4.0 15:27, 26 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: The NHC says no Hurricane Rosa is in sight.Mitchazenia V4.0 17:52, 26 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: But with a possibility of a tropical storm Rosa with 50 kt winds. — Alastor Moody (T + C + U) 19:49, 26 October 2006 (UTC)

text: 60 knots (70 mph) not 50 knots (60 mph).Mitchazenia V4.0 19:58, 26 October 2006 (UTC)

text: Then this should help. The NHC isn't expecting Rosa anymore.Mitchazenia V4.0 18:42, 27 October 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: Tropical Depression Eighteen-E

message: First time I've seen white on the CPac satellite. Near 8.6N 154W. – Chacor 13:30, 26 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: No it ain't-Ivan did better than that.Mitchazenia V4.0 17:54, 26 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Ekeka did even better. All positions below 11°N, Category 3, and in January and February. Based on that precedent, it is possible that this could become a system even at that latitude. Late season seems to be a popular time for systems to form in the Central Pacific. Miss Madeline | Talk to Madeline 18:42, 26 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Depending on wheter its going to strength all depends on the amount of wind shear cuz three depressions with one hat was forecasted to be a re-run of Ioke all died due to wind shearing. — Alastor Moody (T + C + U) 19:51, 26 October 2006 (UTC)

text: CPHC: An area of disturbed weather is located about 775 miles south of Hilo, Hawaii. An elongated, low pressure area has formed within this area. This system appears to be nearly stationary. There is a slight chance for some slow development within this area during the next couple of days. Mitchazenia V4.0 22:12, 26 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: There's still a lot of convection left, although I'm not sure whether it's strengthening or weakening. AstroHurricane001 13:08, 27 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Quite a low latitude to develop at... CrazyC83 03:34, 28 October 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: 99C.INVEST

message: ====90C.INVEST====
7.0N 175.0W --Ajm81 18:30, 29 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Gone from NRL. --Ajm81 00:24, 31 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: It crossed the dateline and is now 90W. —Cuiviénen 20:47, 31 October 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: Week 5

message: 7.0N 175.0W --Ajm81 18:30, 29 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Gone from NRL. --Ajm81 00:24, 31 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: It crossed the dateline and is now 90W. —Cuiviénen 20:47, 31 October 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: 90C.INVEST