Talk:2006 Atlantic hurricane season/Helene

message: It seems we aren't doing "areas of interests" anymore on these talk pages. ( So go ahead and delete this if you need to) .... but if there is a "Tropical Cyclone Possible" spot in the Cape Verde Islands on the NHC's Mariner's 1-2-3 Dangers page, and no Invest on the Navy NRL page, What does that make it?  SargeAbernathy 17:18, 11 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: The NHC also mentioned this system in the TWO. It is a tropical wave that is currently emerging the coast of Africa. They say development is possible over the next couple of days. Given the tropical cyclone possible spot, this should probably stay. Hurricanehink (talk) 17:24, 11 September 2006 (UTC)

text: That's actually a good question, because this possibility was never brought up during the big debate over the AoI pages. I'm going to retitle this section, since the NHC considers it an area of interest, and the NHC is the official RSMC for this region. At any rate, it does look impressive, and it wouldn't surprise me if this were declared an invest as soon as it's completely over water. --Coredesat talk. o_O 17:25, 11 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Is it normal for the NHC to say something before the NRL?  I always saw the two going hand-in-hand with information.  I mean, I have no doubt that the NRL will catch up soon.  I just didn't know how the two interacted with each other. SargeAbernathy 17:28, 11 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: This has happened a few times before, so it's just a little uncommon. --Coredesat talk. o_O 17:34, 11 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Since it is NHC that defines the number of the system inside the ATCF software, it is NHC's call.  NRL just follows their lead.  Thegreatdr 18:05, 11 September 2006 (UTC)

text: It needs to be declared 94L. I have a really bad feeling about this one... CrazyC83 18:54, 11 September 2006 (UTC)

text: I am not to worried about that wave. Even if it's going to develop it will probably recurve out to sea. -- WmE 19:26, 11 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Unless it takes a while to develop and develops in the Carribean. →Cyclone1→ 20:19, 11 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: True. If it doesn't develop but maintains its identity then it would have a chance to form just about anywhere along the major "hurricane corridor." bob rulz 21:41, 11 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: I doubt it's going into the Caribbean but without any model forecasts, I can't be sure and anything on that subject is just speculation but this storm has impressed me and NHC. The visible shows an eye-like feature  and the center appears to have moved off the coast. But whether it looks impressive or like a piece of crap, I always get concerned when NHC says "Possible tropical cyclone within 36 hrs" on a wave that hasn't even left the coast of Africa yet. -- §HurricaneERIC§ archive 21:47, 11 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: If it doesn't develop, chances are it would eventually make it to the Caribbean. If it does develop right there next to the African coast, climatology shows that it would recurve. That doesn't mean it would, but it would have a high likelihood to. If it doesn't develop, the problem would be the wave maintaining its identity across the ocean...if it does, likelihood is is that it would reach highly favorable conditions at some point along its path, but if it doesn't form, then there's no way it can recurve. I've never heard of a tropical wave recurving (although they can dissipate). bob rulz 22:09, 11 September 2006 (UTC)

text: It's back on the danger graphic. (My map is indeed valid for 2100 UTC.) —BazookaJoe 22:54, 11 September 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: NHC AoI: E of Cape Verde Islands

message: Finally listed on NRL. --Patteroast 10:06, 12 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: NHC says possible TD within the next day or so. Hurricanehink (talk) 12:59, 12 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: NRL listed it as 08L.NONAME already, it already looks like a depression. --IrfanFaiz 13:08, 12 September 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: 94L.INVEST

message: NHC confirmed.  We now have three active systems (for the next few hours at least). -Runningonbrains 14:34, 12 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: This one I feel could become huge. Stay tuned... CrazyC83 15:05, 12 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Of course it will become huge! We're talking about what will become Hurricane Helene! It would be lovely to watch her blossom into a powerful category 5. But her track shows her possibly becomming another Florence. -24.92.41.95 15:59, 12 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: "Beautiful" ?! A death bringing destruction machine? "Beautiful" "Blossom" ? doktorb wordsdeeds 16:06, 12 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: They're only death-bringing if people get in the way. A fish spinner Cat 5 is a beautiful thing to watch. Plus they do have a natural purpose and importance: heat transfer. —BazookaJoe 19:11, 12 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: I'll admit, that's one of the reasons I liked Ioke so much - not since I've gotten interested in hurricanes have I had a Cat 5 fishspinner (Except for a few evacuated personnel) to gawk at. --Golbez 20:03, 12 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: The last Cat 5 fish-spinner in the Atlantic was 48 years ago. CrazyC83 21:25, 12 September 2006 (UTC)

text: Don't say that. :( --Golbez 20:03, 12 September 2006 (UTC)

text: It's forecast to, but even the Caribbean is not always friendly to tropical visitors. Look at Earl in '04, it hit a wall the minute it reached the Caribbean. That is one of many examples. Crazy, it's WAY too early to be making comparisons to Hugo or anybody else famous (or infamous). This thing could be another fish-spinner. It is about time that '06 had a legitimate beast, but I'd just as soon it be beastly away from land. Bottom line is, I'm not going to be scared until this thing gives me a reason to be scared. -- §HurricaneERIC§ archive 23:44, 12 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: 5 PM. No change to 8.Mitchazenia 20:43, 13 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Marvelous news! If it can stay a TD for the next 48 hours or so we'll have a party in the caribbean by the weekend! GO HELENE!!! GO!!! -24.92.41.95 20:54, 13 September 2006 (UTC)

text: Umm, I hate to be off color, but some of these anon users need to be drug tested a little more often. -- §HurricaneERIC§ archive 00:12, 14 September 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: Tropical Depression Eight

message: TS8 has been called at 35kt by the models, intensity guidance, and NRL. -- RattleMan 02:23, 14 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Since I have felt that it has been a TS for at least 24 hours (Dvorak estimates, satellite and Quikscat), that is what I have been calling it. Better to just use the number than to jump the gun on the name, regardless of my own estimates. CrazyC83 02:48, 14 September 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: Tropical Storm Eight

message: NRL has Helene now at 65 kt, thus a hurricane. However we should wait for the next advisory. -- WmE 13:08, 16 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Confirmed by NHC.  --Holderca1 15:01, 16 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Yep. Now the question is with the ridge: will it rebuild or not? CrazyC83 15:46, 16 September 2006 (UTC)

text: Helene looks fairly impressive now. It's slightly-lopsided shape and half-filled eye kind of remind me of Ophelia...far future track is still very uncertain. bob rulz 11:08, 17 September 2006 (UTC)

text: This is surely allowing the ACE to catch up combined with Gordon's Epsilon-esque tenacity... —The preceding unsigned comment was added by CrazyC83 (talk • contribs) .
Ahh, I see Dr. Avila has not lost the human touch:  -- §HurricaneERIC§ archive 16:51, 17 September 2006 (UTC)

text: SSD now T5.5/5.5 (102kt) - could very well be a major hurricane at 11pm. CrazyC83 00:14, 18 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Satellite presentation is MUCH better than 4 hours ago.  Helene's really getting her stuff together. Would not surprise me in the least. -Runningonbrains 00:55, 18 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Also, models are gettting a little iffy about recurvature.  This will definately be one to watch. -Runningonbrains 00:57, 18 September 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: Hurricane Helene