Talk:Ludic fallacy

message: Hi
I've had a go at improving this page taking some information from the book to help.
I relise that the idea of using the Red Black question is not ideal as the idea of the ludic fallacy is that casio logic doesn't effect real life, but though that it would help explain the idea of the coin being loaded  —Preceding unsigned comment added by Horrisgoesskiing (talk • contribs) 11:50, 14 March 2008 (UTC)
thread_title:  Update 

message: For example, in two: "The young job seeker here forgets that real life is more complex than the theory of statistics.". The theory of statistics has nothing to say about the complexity of life. It would be more accurate to say "The young job seeker here forgets that real life has more variables than the small set he has chosen to estimate." Statistics is perfectly able to produce accurate results if given an accurate model.  —Preceding unsigned comment added by 72.201.248.165 (talk) 22:03, 14 January 2010 (UTC)
replies: text:  problem is to get to an accurate model. That is the whole ludic fallacy, that people assume errornously simplified models. Yechezkel Zilber (talk) 23:03, 14 January 2010 (UTC)
replies: text:  yes, well, as there was no move to remove the blame from statistics itself, i have made the suggested modification. 72.201.248.165 (talk) 19:42, 16 January 2010 (UTC)
thread_title:  Bad examples (1 and 2) 

message: How were the extreme moves of black Thursday different, for the purposes of the model, from the market breakdown after the tsunami, except the tsunami caused even more extreme moves? It is a model of prices! Did the markets close? 
Taleb often criticizes the CAPM for being unable to deal with extreme events. Such events are possible in the model, but should be much more rare than is actually observed. This is due to the assumption that the price movements are normally distributed. Mandelbrot thinks he can patch things up (see his "Misbehavior of Markets"), in which case it would not be an instance of the ludic fallacy but just a bad model.   — Preceding unsigned comment added by 98.150.235.107 (talk) 08:51, 5 March 2012 (UTC)
thread_title: example 3 confusing

message: It is ludicrous to give fictional stories as evidence for a theory, even if you call doing so a "thought experiment". Allowing this would prove all sorts of crackpot ideas. It is even worse than proving things by anecdote. Even though they are copied out of a book, some warning or critique should be given. 92.3.60.236 (talk) 22:17, 21 October 2018 (UTC)
replies: text: These are not evidence, they are examples. I agree that even examples must come from real life. Otherwise who known whether this fallacy is real. Staszek Lem (talk) 18:23, 23 October 2018 (UTC)
thread_title:  Fiction presented as evidence 

message: I removed the 'alleged' inserted here as I could find no support for that characterization. (That edit by  was otherwise reasonable, imo.) I've collected the below descriptions of the fallacy as fodder from which to construct a replacement for the lede sentence of the Description §, starting with Taleb's glossary entry in Antifragile, then rewording by a few others:
*"Mistaking the well-posed problems of mathematics and laboratory experiments for the ecologically complex real world. Includes mistaking the randomness in casinos for that in real life." (Antifragile, 2014, p. 429)
*"[T]he 'ludic fallacy' provides that there are inevitable imperfections in modeling the real world by particular models, and that unquestioning reliance on models like this theory, blinds one to their limits …" (Ohairwe, G., Basheka, B. C., & Zikusooka, C. M. (2015). Decision making practices in the pharmaceutical sector: Implications for Uganda. African Journal of Business Management, 9(7), 323-345.)
*"[T]he confusion of games or math models with real life. Only probabilities in games can be known a priori" (Torras, M. (2016). Uncertainty about uncertainty: the futility of benefit-cost analysis for climate change policy. real-world economics review, 11)
*"[T]he making of a false parallel between real-world risks with unknown outcomes and games of chance which are constructed to have known outcomes." (Kapardis, A., & Farrington, D. P. (Eds.). (2016). The psychology of crime, policing and courts. Routledge.)
Humanengr (talk) 04:49, 6 November 2018 (UTC)
thread_title:  Lede sentence of description §