Talk:2006–07 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season/July-October

message: ===97P.INVEST===
An early start to the season. NSLE 01:24, 1 July 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Gone. NSLE 15:32, 1 July 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: July

message: An early start to the season. NSLE 01:24, 1 July 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Gone. NSLE 15:32, 1 July 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: 97P.INVEST

message: ===98P.INVEST===
98P is up. —The preceding unsigned comment was added by 24.83.98.3 (talk • contribs).
:Shear is actually somewhat low in this area. If anything develops this early in their season, this might be it. Definitely looks like something's trying to get going down there. --Coredesat talk. ^_^ 23:23, 2 August 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Yes it does. bob rulz 04:25, 3 August 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Guess not, there's nothing there anymore. --Coredesat talk. ^_^ 19:24, 3 August 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Gone. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 02:44, 4 August 2006 (UTC)

text: This disturbance looks pretty good already. bob rulz 08:58, 10 August 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Not good enough, apparently. Gone. —Cuiviénen 06:08, 11 August 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: August

message: 98P is up. —The preceding unsigned comment was added by 24.83.98.3 (talk • contribs).
:Shear is actually somewhat low in this area. If anything develops this early in their season, this might be it. Definitely looks like something's trying to get going down there. --Coredesat talk. ^_^ 23:23, 2 August 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Yes it does. bob rulz 04:25, 3 August 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Guess not, there's nothing there anymore. --Coredesat talk. ^_^ 19:24, 3 August 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Gone. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 02:44, 4 August 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: 98P.INVEST

message: 99P is up. bob rulz 18:12, 9 August 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: This disturbance looks pretty good already. bob rulz 08:58, 10 August 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Not good enough, apparently. Gone. —Cuiviénen 06:08, 11 August 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: 99P.INVEST

message: ====90P.INVEST====
9.8S 167.7E. Can it be? Is the SHEM season beginning? -- RattleMan 07:34, 7 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Interesting blob. – Chacor 07:34, 7 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Quite early for such! It's the equivalent to early April in the Northern Hemisphere... CrazyC83 19:44, 7 October 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: Week 1

message: 9.8S 167.7E. Can it be? Is the SHEM season beginning? -- RattleMan 07:34, 7 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Interesting blob. – Chacor 07:34, 7 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Quite early for such! It's the equivalent to early April in the Northern Hemisphere... CrazyC83 19:44, 7 October 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: 90P.INVEST

message: La Réunion now monitoring it. POSITION LE 19 OCTOBRE A 10 HEURES LOCALES:  2.9 SUD / 59.1 EST, PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 1004 HPA. 153.20.95.69 08:31, 19 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: No longer monitored. – Chacor 01:21, 20 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Correction: 24-hourly advisories still being released, just not 6-hourly ones. TCFA cancelled. – Chacor 14:00, 20 October 2006 (UTC)

text: JTWC 6pm UTC - Downgraded to poor, sustained winds estimated at 25 to 30 knots with 1006 mn pressure. -- グリフオーザー 00:30, 21 October 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: Tropical Disturbance 01R

message: 2S 156.6E - グリフオーザー 03:19, 18 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: This one is interesting - it's within TCWC Port Moresby's AOR. – Chacor 05:47, 18 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Unfortunately, we won't get to know what would happen if TCWC Port Moresby named it, at least not right now. Gone. --Coredesat 03:49, 19 October 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: 92P.INVEST

message: TD1F by RSMC Nadi: 
 Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
 issued from RSMC NADI Oct 21/2214 UTC 2006 UTC.
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01F [1004HPA]  NEAR 10.9S 168.9E AT 222100 UTC
 MOVING SLOW MOVING. POSITON FAIR BASED ON MTSAT/GMS-5 IR/VIS
 ANIMATION AND SURFACE OBSERVATION. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED OVER THE
 LAST 24 HOURS WITH A GOOD OUTFLOW IN THE NORTH AND EAST QUADRANTS
 WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR. A GOOD TRADE WIND FLOW PERSISTS
 ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE, WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO 25 KNOTS. SST IS
 AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS [AVN/ECMWF/UKGC/GASPS]
 MAINTAIN THE 01F IN THE AREA. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP
 INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS IS FAIR TO MODERATE. 
-- RattleMan 22:39, 21 October 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: Tropical Depression 01F

message: First named storm of the season. – Chacor 01:47, 22 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: It is now explosively intensifying. --IrfanFaiz 03:37, 22 October 2006 (UTC)

text: Shouldn't we start using hurricane infoboxes for Xavier? Also, the current track map shows it is moving towards Vanuatu. Maybe there should info included in the article about the latest Watches/Warnings. RaNdOm26 10:26, 23 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: The current infobox doesn't accomodate Shem storms. I'll try to work on one in a sandbox. As far as I know, there are no warnings yet. – Chacor 10:28, 23 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Wow! I think the S. Hemisphere is off to a good start with a Category 4 as the first system. — Alastor Moody (T + C + U) 01:55, 26 October 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: Tropical Cyclone Xavier

message: ====94P.INVEST====
3.5S 157E. -- RattleMan 19:27, 22 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Gone. -- RattleMan 17:10, 25 October 2006 (UTC)

text: Tropical Depression 02F [1004HPA] near 11S 176W moving west 10 knots.
Position poor and based on MTSAT IR/VIS animation. SST in the area is
about 28C. 02F is embedded in an easterly trough and is currently
being propagated westwards. Deep convection persists around the
centre and at this stage there is a strong likelihood of multiple low
level centres. 02F is located under the 250 hPa subtropical ridge in
an area of strong diffluence. Environmental shear is minimal. Global
models have picked up the system and steer it westwards but show
reluctance in developing it. The potential for 02F to develop in a
tropical cyclone is low to moderate in the next 24 to 48 hours.
-- グリフオーザー 00:24, 25 October 2006 (UTC)

text: Looks fairly good right now. JTWC upgraded it to fair. --Coredesat 01:46, 25 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: And it's gone from RSMC Nadi's website. --Coredesat 22:21, 26 October 2006 (UTC)

text: Gone. --Coredesat 01:38, 30 October 2006 (UTC)

text: 97P is dropped from the NRL but tropical disturbance advisories continue for TD 03F. -- グリフオーザー 05:35, 3 November 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Gone from RSMC Nadi's website. --Coredesat 12:30, 3 November 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: Week 4

message: 3.5S 157E. -- RattleMan 19:27, 22 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Gone. -- RattleMan 17:10, 25 October 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: 94P.INVEST

message: =====95P.INVEST=====
Just appeared on NRL, it's near 10.0S 176.0W. --Coredesat 22:32, 24 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Tropical Depression 02F [1004HPA] near 11S 176W moving west 10 knots.
Position poor and based on MTSAT IR/VIS animation. SST in the area is
about 28C. 02F is embedded in an easterly trough and is currently
being propagated westwards. Deep convection persists around the
centre and at this stage there is a strong likelihood of multiple low
level centres. 02F is located under the 250 hPa subtropical ridge in
an area of strong diffluence. Environmental shear is minimal. Global
models have picked up the system and steer it westwards but show
reluctance in developing it. The potential for 02F to develop in a
tropical cyclone is low to moderate in the next 24 to 48 hours.
-- グリフオーザー 00:24, 25 October 2006 (UTC)

text: Looks fairly good right now. JTWC upgraded it to fair. --Coredesat 01:46, 25 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: And it's gone from RSMC Nadi's website. --Coredesat 22:21, 26 October 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: 02F.INVEST

message: Just appeared on NRL, it's near 10.0S 176.0W. --Coredesat 22:32, 24 October 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: 95P.INVEST

message: :Tropical Depression 02F [1004HPA] near 11S 176W moving west 10 knots.
Position poor and based on MTSAT IR/VIS animation. SST in the area is
about 28C. 02F is embedded in an easterly trough and is currently
being propagated westwards. Deep convection persists around the
centre and at this stage there is a strong likelihood of multiple low
level centres. 02F is located under the 250 hPa subtropical ridge in
an area of strong diffluence. Environmental shear is minimal. Global
models have picked up the system and steer it westwards but show
reluctance in developing it. The potential for 02F to develop in a
tropical cyclone is low to moderate in the next 24 to 48 hours.
-- グリフオーザー 00:24, 25 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Looks fairly good right now. JTWC upgraded it to fair. --Coredesat 01:46, 25 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: And it's gone from RSMC Nadi's website. --Coredesat 22:21, 26 October 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: Tropical Depression 02F

message: 12.3S 178.2E. -- RattleMan 05:12, 29 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Gone. --Coredesat 01:38, 30 October 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: 96P.INVEST

message: =====97P.INVEST=====
8S 173E. -- RattleMan 07:24, 31 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: 97P is dropped from the NRL but tropical disturbance advisories continue for TD 03F. -- グリフオーザー 05:35, 3 November 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Gone from RSMC Nadi's website. --Coredesat 12:30, 3 November 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: 03F.INVEST

message: 8S 173E. -- RattleMan 07:24, 31 October 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: 97P.INVEST

message: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 03F CENTRE [1006HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 12.6S 179.6W
AT 010000 UTC MOVING SOUTHWEST 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. POSSIBILITY
OF MORE THAN ONE CENTRE IN THIS AREA [ALONG 180]. ORGANISATION IN THE
LAST 24 HOURS IMPROVED. CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO LLCC.
SST IS AROUND 28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NOT
CAPTURED THIS SYSTEM. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW. -- グリフオーザー 02:10, 1 November 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: Tropical Disturbance 03F

message: Nadi now naming this system a depression -- グリフオーザー 20:47, 1 November 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: 97P is dropped from the NRL but tropical disturbance advisories continue for TD 03F. -- グリフオーザー 05:35, 3 November 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Gone from RSMC Nadi's website. --Coredesat 12:30, 3 November 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: Tropical Depression 03F