Talk:2006 Atlantic hurricane season/April

message: Springtime is upon us! However, the tropics are still recovering and have a little ways to go before they become favorable for tropical development. While a pre-season storm is definitely realistic, it is a bit too soon right now. Eyes move inland to Tornado Alley for the most part. Stranger things have happened though! CrazyC83 03:42, 1 April 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Pretty big cooling of the SSTs in the Caribbean and the GoM over the past few days:  . -- RattleMan 15:23, 1 April 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: That is quite drastic! The first shots are very out of line with this time of year...capable of tropical development (although the shear is too great) - but not now! CrazyC83 00:04, 2 April 2006 (UTC)
replies: text:  I told you all that the cold water upwelling off of the Cape Verde Islands would have an effect, and it is.  The upwelling is continuing, and there is more erosion is the SSTs off towards Africa.  So over time the SSTs for the Atlantic basin, including the Carribean and the Gulf, will fall even more.  Even so, this does not look like a very big or a very cold upwelling, and I am looking for it to subside after a few months.  However, I no longer expect more that 20 storms this year.  My sense of things is the Atlantic will still be quite warm this year, but very high SSTs that I anticipated earlier will not occur.  --EMS | Talk 02:08, 2 April 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: Weeks 1 and 2

message: Im detecting an two areas of rotation at the end of a cold front in the central Atlantic. see here I will give it a 15% chance of becoming anything. Storm05 15:31, 21 April 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Cutoff lows. One will probably absorb the other, but I seriously doubt anything will develop from this. Shear is just too high and there isn't even any convection associated with the circulations. --Coredesat 18:14, 21 April 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Agreed, although of the three areas detected, this is the most likely to develop. It does have some similarities to 2003's Ana before it formed. I'd give it a 20% chance of development. CrazyC83 23:01, 21 April 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: I don't see anything coming form this one at all...I barely noticed the circulation. - Bladeswin | Talk to me | 23:11, 21 April 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: AoI:04W4A: Central Atlantic

message: Once again I spotted another storm, a powerful cyclonic storm near Atlantic Canada and its moving to the northeast. It appears to me to have an eye like structure but due to the quality of the satallite loop I cant exacatly justify it to be a potential storm. Youll be the judge. Storm05 15:38, 21 April 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Waaaay too far north, and too much shear anyway. This shouldn't even be an AoI. --Coredesat 18:08, 21 April 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: It's a good looking storm, but the water temperatures there are only about 10-12°C (in the 50s°F)!!! That's like a September tropical cyclone forming off the coast of southern Greenland!!! CrazyC83 23:03, 21 April 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: It looks similar to the one cycling over the central US/Canada.  Wishful thinking, or not-so-wishful thinking depending on your POV. - Bladeswin | Talk to me | 23:07, 21 April 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: That one over Minnesota has been giving me funny weather for the last two days. Rain, sun, rain, sun, rain, sun, hail. Fun. :P --Patteroast 23:28, 21 April 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: AoI:04W4C: Northwestern Atlantic

message: Any chance of this developing? Last Frame as of 16:18, 22 April 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: I doubt it. Icelandic Hurricane #12 20:10, 22 April 2006 (UTC)
replies: text:  On its way out.  Barely could have been warm-core and subtropical for a while if that analysis is to be believed.  --AySz88^-^ 21:13, 22 April 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Those images are for what's off Spain... The one I was referring to has since become a mess off the African Coast. - Bladeswin | Talk to me | 22:07, 22 April 2006 (UTC)

text: As far as I know, it's just a cute Wikipedia thing. --AySz88^-^ 23:43, 25 April 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: AySz is right, it's just a Wikipedia thing. Storm05 created/declared AoIs A, B and C, and Bladeswin did D. As it gets closer to June 1st, we'll probably see more of these, and they may just develop. Incase one doesn't know what an AoI is, it's an "Area of Interest", caught by our own eyes as something that may develop. Storm05's are a bit over the top but Bladeswin's is understandable. -- RattleMan 01:39, 26 April 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Thanks RattleMan.  And no, there's no set method for AoI's.  As the season gets closer to it's start and beyond, more and more AoI's will become Invests, then TD's, then TS's, then 'Canes. Yay for hurricanes... - Bladeswin | Talk to me | 02:33, 26 April 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Thanks for clearing that up. Between the official-looking designations and Storm05 being overly keen (those "subtropical storms" on 2005 reinforce that), its small wonder I got a little confused.--Nilfanion 10:36, 26 April 2006 (UTC)

text: Rather than make a new AoI, the shear is negligable where a large quantity of thunderstorms are coming off the coast.  One huge bunch in particular is looking large and pretty...but I don't think it'll stay that way.  Any comments on this? - Bladeswin | Talk to me | 22:33, 26 April 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: AoI:04W4D: African Coast

message: I have spotted this off the East coast of the United States. Any chance of this becoming anything? Storm05 12:23, 28 April 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: More like an offshore Nor'Easter with heavy rain... CrazyC83 16:31, 28 April 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Heres a better view of the storm. Storm05 16:49, 28 April 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: AoI:04W4E: Offshore Eastern U.S