Talk:2006 Atlantic hurricane season/February

message: Peace and quiet. Gotta love the peak of the off-season...can this be the first month free of tropical activity since last May? (It also helps that it has the fewest number of days) CrazyC83 04:43, 1 February 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: I'm glad that "First Atlantic season to have a storm form in January" will not go to 2006.  11 months  of possibilities to go. :p --AySz88^-^ 05:03, 1 February 2006 (UTC)
replies: text:  Fortunately, this month is the shortest, and the conditions are about as unfavorable as it gets for tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic. Enjoy it while it lasts though - spring is coming faster than you think! CrazyC83 19:49, 2 February 2006 (UTC)
replies: text:  More importantly, the SSTs are finally getting too low to support cyclogenesis.  We still could get a tropical storm this month in the Carribean, though. --EMS | Talk 02:54, 4 February 2006 (UTC)
replies: text:  Please don't tempt fate, CrazyC83 kept speculating last season and a lot of outrageous stuff ended up coming true... -- Sarsaparilla39 05:55, 6 February 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: CrazyC83 doesn't make the weather, seriously. Mike H. That's hot 07:00, 6 February 2006 (UTC)

text: What could that mean? Stronger storms sooner? CrazyC83 03:48, 3 February 2006 (UTC)
replies: text:  It means more and longer lasting storms due to lower shear in the Atlantic.  Storm stength will be governed by the Atlantic SSTs, not the Pacific ones however. --EMS | Talk 02:54, 4 February 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Wow, this can be serious. Approximately how many storms can form before June? Memicho 03:01, 4 February 2006 (UTC)
replies: text:  I think that there have only been a handful of May storms.  It really is not until June that the seasonal wind shear relaxes and the SSTs rise into the range that supports cyclogenesis.  However, do watcth the current SSTs as the year goes on.  Note that even now the water off of Cape Verde and the Congo is hot!  That is an ongoing upwelling of warmer waters.  That upwelling water is cooling quickly now as it heads to the west, but come summer I expect that it will make the areas of the north Atlantic which are now yellow through orange will become a bright, angry red.  If that should happen, there will be times that the north Atlantic will literally be full of storms.  All that could hold the number of storms down would be strong wind shear, and that brings us back to there being a La Niña this year. --EMS | Talk 18:43, 6 February 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: Week 1

message: Report issued by NOAA today says La Niña is most definitely here. -- RattleMan 22:47, 2 February 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: What could that mean? Stronger storms sooner? CrazyC83 03:48, 3 February 2006 (UTC)
replies: text:  It means more and longer lasting storms due to lower shear in the Atlantic.  Storm stength will be governed by the Atlantic SSTs, not the Pacific ones however. --EMS | Talk 02:54, 4 February 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Wow, this can be serious. Approximately how many storms can form before June? Memicho 03:01, 4 February 2006 (UTC)
replies: text:  I think that there have only been a handful of May storms.  It really is not until June that the seasonal wind shear relaxes and the SSTs rise into the range that supports cyclogenesis.  However, do watcth the current SSTs as the year goes on.  Note that even now the water off of Cape Verde and the Congo is hot!  That is an ongoing upwelling of warmer waters.  That upwelling water is cooling quickly now as it heads to the west, but come summer I expect that it will make the areas of the north Atlantic which are now yellow through orange will become a bright, angry red.  If that should happen, there will be times that the north Atlantic will literally be full of storms.  All that could hold the number of storms down would be strong wind shear, and that brings us back to there being a La Niña this year. --EMS | Talk 18:43, 6 February 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: La Niña Is Here

message: Looks like there is something in the NW Carribean again.  I have not seen any models so I have no idea what (official) chance there is of a storm forming out of this.  What I can say is that it seems to be under shear and that the SSTs are relatively low there now.  So cyclogenensis seems to be unlikely there at this time IMO. --EMS | Talk 15:50, 7 February 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: The Central Caribbean still has SST's capable of tropical development...and this is almost as cold as the waters are going to get... CrazyC83 17:52, 7 February 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: It looks like cutoff convection from a front in the west central Atlantic. There's a great deal of shear and dry air in the area, which should inhibit any development. --Coredesat 19:28, 7 February 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: We've got some time left in the complete off-season. March 10 is the anti-peak of the hurricane season. —Cuiviénen (Cuivië) 03:39, 8 February 2006 (UTC)
replies: text:  I don't know that the waters in the Carribean are truly "as low as they will get".  They usually are a bit cooler this time of year, and I have the feeling there of winter slowly making itself felt in the SSTs, which are lower now than even a couple of weeks ago.  I do agree that the current SSTs there can support cyclogenesis.  (Note that I said that the SSTs are relatively low.)  However, the overall situation is far from condusive to it.  In fact, it seems that a cold front has just gotten to this little system and is already breaking it up. --EMS | Talk 04:28, 8 February 2006 (UTC)
thread_title:  AoI:02W2A - NW Carribean 

message: Quote:
:Alberto watch
:A large cold-cored non-tropical low pressure system spinning off the coast of Africa near the Canary Islands has gained a bit of deep convection over the past 24 hours, and has about a 10% chance of becoming Subtropical Storm Alberto in the next few days. Waters temperatures are a cool 20 - 22 C over the region, and the low is forecast to drift towards the coast of Africa and gradually dissipate by the end of the week.
:Jeff Masters
Whee! Hopquick 02:51, 9 February 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: There will be no Alberto from that system - it has lost its deep convection, and the water temperatures are around 18°C (about equal to off the coast of Maine at the peak of hurricane season). Way too cold for a tropical cyclone to develop. CrazyC83 16:56, 9 February 2006 (UTC)

text: Where do you get all this info? -65.94.196.5 02:48, 10 February 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: The wunderground.com tropics blogs, and other places. Hopquick 04:07, 10 February 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: Alberto watch