Talk:Economic analysis of climate change

message: I am proposing to move the section "Adaptation and vulnerability" to climate change adaptation, and then to update it and condense it there. The section is mainly about climate change adaptation, not so much about economic aspects or tools. Perhaps it was added many years ago (going by the age of the refs used) before we had a good article on climate change adaptation. Pinging User:Chidgk1 and User:Richarit for comment. EMsmile (talk) 23:18, 23 November 2022 (UTC)
replies: text: I agree this would be a good idea; apart from this "Adaptation and vulnerability" section there is not much on economics of adaptation in the rest of the article, so I would say there is a need to expand it rather than condense it here (not sure if that is what you are suggesting). It seems there is no standalone article on economics of adaptation like there is for mitigation, so this might be the main reference to it in wikipedia (?)  Richarit (talk) 18:28, 24 November 2022 (UTC)
replies: text:  OK, so I'll move the section "Adaptation and vulnerability" to climate change adaptation. Secondly, we have to decide where content about "economics of adaptation" should mainly be placed. I actually think it should be in the climate change adaptation article rather than in an article on Economics of climate change nor in a potentially new article on Economics of climate change adaptation. I'm currently struggling with this for the mitigation topic as well and I am unconvinced that separating out the economics part into a stand-alone article works. Unless perhaps it's about detailed "economic tools" that would be used, which could be quite complex and thus too detailed for the  climate change adaptation article. Are those economic/financial tools used for "economics of climate change adaptation" very complex? If not, let's just include it all in climate change adaptation. EMsmile (talk) 08:58, 25 November 2022 (UTC)
replies: text:  I've moved that textblock to climate change adaptation now. EMsmile (talk) 10:07, 25 November 2022 (UTC)
thread_title:  Proposal to move the section "Adaptation and vulnerability" to [[climate change adaptation]] 

message: I've removed this section based on the advice by reviewing expert Elisabeth Gilmore. This is digressing from the main topic and better covered in other Wikipedia articles. EMsmile (talk) 07:57, 23 May 2023 (UTC)
thread_title:  Removed section "Factors affecting emissions growth" 

message: I've removed this section based on advice by Elisabeth Gilmore who said: "This content is old and not really relevant to economic analysis."EMsmile (talk) 08:07, 23 May 2023 (UTC)
thread_title: Removed section on equity and GHG emissions

message: I've removed this section based on advice by Elisabeth Gilmore: "Update to SSPs and other GDP and GHG scenarios.  This content is old and not the mainstream scenarios used by the IPCC and those who really do climate economics." EMsmile (talk) 08:38, 23 May 2023 (UTC)
thread_title:  Removed section on Global futures scenarios and emissions scenarios 

message: I am proposing to change the name of this article to economic analysis of climate change. I think it would make it clearer to our readers what to expect to see in the article. The word "economics" is too vague. Note the article economic impacts of climate change would be regarded as a sub-article for this article. EMsmile (talk) 08:46, 23 May 2023 (UTC)
replies: text: I've made this name change (move) now. I had also posted about it at WikiProject Climate Change and there was no objection in a 3-week time period: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia_talk:WikiProject_Climate_change#Proposed_name_change_to_economic_analysis_of_climate_change EMsmile (talk) 08:56, 16 June 2023 (UTC)
thread_title:  Proposed name change 

message: I've removed the "further reading" list, I think it wasn't adding value here:
* "Central Banks and Climate Risks: Some researchers look at climate change and see economic uncertainty. Central banks are beginning to take notice", Econ Focus, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Second/Third Quarter 2019.
* Maximilian Auffhammer. 2018. "Quantifying Economic Damages from Climate Change." Journal of Economic Perspectives—Volume 32, Number 4—Fall 2018—Pages 33–52.
* Solomon Hsiang and Robert E. Kopp. 2018. "An Economist's Guide to Climate Change Science." Journal of Economic Perspectives—Volume 32, Number 4—Fall 2018—Pages 3–32 EMsmile (talk) 14:03, 4 September 2023 (UTC)
thread_title:  Removed further reading list 

message: I've removed this paragraph as I felt it didn't fit with this high level article. Perhaps move to renewable energy? Pinging User:Chidgk1.
=== Technological change too slow ===
Since 2021 the cost of new wind and solar power has generally been less than existing gas and coal-fired power: both because of the rise in price of natural gas that year and the long-term trend of falling renewables prices.  However it is estimated that the steady growth part of the S-shaped growth curve of renewable power will not be enough on its own to meet the goal of the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees. According to the World Resources İnstitute both non-economic and economic policies are needed to increase the rate of growth of renewables: for example they say some countries should invest more in upgrading power grids. EMsmile (talk) 10:56, 12 September 2023 (UTC)
replies: text: Oh yes I wrote that if I remember right - I think it is still true - do whatever you like with it anyone - I am just glad when people work on economics articles as I find them very hard to understand and edit Chidgk1 (talk) 14:42, 12 September 2023 (UTC)
thread_title:  Removed content about renewables 

message: Since 2021 the cost of new wind and solar power has generally been less than existing gas and coal-fired power: both because of the rise in price of natural gas that year and the long-term trend of falling renewables prices.  However it is estimated that the steady growth part of the S-shaped growth curve of renewable power will not be enough on its own to meet the goal of the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees. According to the World Resources İnstitute both non-economic and economic policies are needed to increase the rate of growth of renewables: for example they say some countries should invest more in upgrading power grids. EMsmile (talk) 10:56, 12 September 2023 (UTC)
replies: text: Oh yes I wrote that if I remember right - I think it is still true - do whatever you like with it anyone - I am just glad when people work on economics articles as I find them very hard to understand and edit Chidgk1 (talk) 14:42, 12 September 2023 (UTC)
thread_title:  Technological change too slow 

message: I regard this as outdated and better covered now in our other Wikipedia articles. Moved this to the talk page in case someone wants to argue against deletion.
=== Trade offs ===
It is often argued in the literature that there is a trade-off between adaptation and mitigation, in that the resources committed to one are not available for the other. This is debatable in practice because the people who bear emission reduction costs or benefits are often different from those who pay or benefit from adaptation measures.
There is also a trade off in how much damage from climate change should be avoided. The assumption that it is always possible to trade off different outcomes is viewed as problematic by many people.
Some of the literature has pointed to difficulties in these kinds of assumptions. For instance, there may be aversion at any price towards losing particular species. This is related to climate change, since the possibility of future abrupt changes in the climate or the Earth system cannot be ruled out. For example, if the West Antarctic ice sheet was to disintegrate, it could result in a sea level rise of 4–6 meters over several centuries. EMsmile (talk) 11:14, 12 September 2023 (UTC)
replies: text: For info: there is a recent Economist article https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/06/27/the-choice-between-a-poorer-today-and-a-hotter-tomorrow and leader https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/06/29/how-misfiring-environmentalism-risks-harming-the-worlds-poor about a different kind of trade off - between helping the poor and helping the environment Chidgk1 (talk) 11:10, 13 September 2023 (UTC)
thread_title:  Section on trade offs deleted (outdated) 

message: It is often argued in the literature that there is a trade-off between adaptation and mitigation, in that the resources committed to one are not available for the other. This is debatable in practice because the people who bear emission reduction costs or benefits are often different from those who pay or benefit from adaptation measures.
There is also a trade off in how much damage from climate change should be avoided. The assumption that it is always possible to trade off different outcomes is viewed as problematic by many people.
Some of the literature has pointed to difficulties in these kinds of assumptions. For instance, there may be aversion at any price towards losing particular species. This is related to climate change, since the possibility of future abrupt changes in the climate or the Earth system cannot be ruled out. For example, if the West Antarctic ice sheet was to disintegrate, it could result in a sea level rise of 4–6 meters over several centuries. EMsmile (talk) 11:14, 12 September 2023 (UTC)
replies: text: For info: there is a recent Economist article https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/06/27/the-choice-between-a-poorer-today-and-a-hotter-tomorrow and leader https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/06/29/how-misfiring-environmentalism-risks-harming-the-worlds-poor about a different kind of trade off - between helping the poor and helping the environment Chidgk1 (talk) 11:10, 13 September 2023 (UTC)
thread_title:  Trade offs 

message: I've removed this section for being (in my opinion) not encyclopedic, too much like a literature review, outdated:
==== Comments on relative impacts ====
Bostrom (2009)Bostrom, N. The Future of Humanity, in: New Waves in Philosophy of Technology, eds. Jan-Kyrre Berg Olsen, Evan Selinger & Soren Riis (Palgrave Macmillan, 2009) (PDF) comments that:Even the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, a report prepared for the British Government which has been criticized by some as overly pessimistic, estimates that under the assumption of business-as-usual with regard to emissions, global warming will reduce welfare by an amount equivalent to a permanent reduction in per capita consumption of between 5 and 20%. In absolute terms, this would be a huge harm.  Yet over the course of the twentieth century, world GDP grew by some 3,700%, and per capita world GDP rose by some 860%. It seems safe to say that (absent a radical overhaul of our best current scientific models of the Earth's climate system) whatever negative economic effects global warming will have, they will be completely swamped by other factors that will influence economic growth rates in this century.Other analysts have commented on the risks of climate change damages. The German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU, 2007)Sec. 5.2.4.2: Climate change impacts on the global economy, in: Ch. 5: Impacts of climate change on the biosphere and human society, in  comments that:Although [the Stern Review's] figures tend to be at the upper end of the scale compared to other estimates currently circulating, even [its] quantitative estimates fail to include the economic upheavals that would arise as a consequence of climate-induced conflicts or might be triggered by climate-induced migration.Several analysts have emphasized the importance of "catastrophic" risks due to climate change. WBGU (2007)Sec. 8.3.2: Risks for global economic development, in: Ch. 8: Climate change as a driver of social destabilization and threat to international security, in  states that due to climate change, "significant impairment" of the global economy is a "distinct possibility". Weitzman (2012)Conclusion, in  has commented:
Climate change potentially affects the whole worldwide portfolio of utility by threatening to drive all of planetary welfare to disastrously low levels in the most extreme scenarios. With global climate change, diversification [of risk] is limited because all eggs are inherently in one basket. EMsmile (talk) 12:55, 12 September 2023 (UTC)
thread_title:  Removed section on comments on relative impacts 

message: Bostrom (2009)Bostrom, N. The Future of Humanity, in: New Waves in Philosophy of Technology, eds. Jan-Kyrre Berg Olsen, Evan Selinger & Soren Riis (Palgrave Macmillan, 2009) (PDF) comments that:Even the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, a report prepared for the British Government which has been criticized by some as overly pessimistic, estimates that under the assumption of business-as-usual with regard to emissions, global warming will reduce welfare by an amount equivalent to a permanent reduction in per capita consumption of between 5 and 20%. In absolute terms, this would be a huge harm.  Yet over the course of the twentieth century, world GDP grew by some 3,700%, and per capita world GDP rose by some 860%. It seems safe to say that (absent a radical overhaul of our best current scientific models of the Earth's climate system) whatever negative economic effects global warming will have, they will be completely swamped by other factors that will influence economic growth rates in this century.Other analysts have commented on the risks of climate change damages. The German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU, 2007)Sec. 5.2.4.2: Climate change impacts on the global economy, in: Ch. 5: Impacts of climate change on the biosphere and human society, in  comments that:Although [the Stern Review's] figures tend to be at the upper end of the scale compared to other estimates currently circulating, even [its] quantitative estimates fail to include the economic upheavals that would arise as a consequence of climate-induced conflicts or might be triggered by climate-induced migration.Several analysts have emphasized the importance of "catastrophic" risks due to climate change. WBGU (2007)Sec. 8.3.2: Risks for global economic development, in: Ch. 8: Climate change as a driver of social destabilization and threat to international security, in  states that due to climate change, "significant impairment" of the global economy is a "distinct possibility". Weitzman (2012)Conclusion, in  has commented:
Climate change potentially affects the whole worldwide portfolio of utility by threatening to drive all of planetary welfare to disastrously low levels in the most extreme scenarios. With global climate change, diversification [of risk] is limited because all eggs are inherently in one basket. EMsmile (talk) 12:55, 12 September 2023 (UTC)
thread_title:  Comments on relative impacts 

message: I've removed this content from "‎Non-market impacts" section. My justification is: doesn't really fit here in this high level article; too much detail about survey results by EIB..
Removed content:
Green companies in Europe outperform those in the United States in terms of green investment and digital uptake. In comparison to the United States, European businesses are less likely to have adopted digital technology, but they are more likely to invest in climate change mitigation or adaptation strategies. In Europe, the proportion of businesses that make green investments and are also digital adopters is slightly greater, at 32%. The same businesses are at 28% in the United States.
81% of the European Investment Bank's Investment Survey respondents cited uncertainty as the most severe obstacle to investment.
A European survey conducted in 2021 found that 45% of young Chinese people, 32% of young Americans, 31% of British, and 25% of Europeans fear they could lose their jobs because of the fight against climate change. Specifically, Europeans aged 20 – 29 (44%) fear they could lose their job if it is incompatible with the need to combat climate change. However, 55% of Europeans believe that initiatives to combat climate change will have a net positive impact on employment, generating more jobs.
The survey also found that 69% of EU, 71% of UK, 62% of US and 89% of Chinese respondents would support a tax on the items and services that contribute the most to climate change.
During the green transition, workers in carbon-intensive industries are more likely to lose their jobs. In the years to come, the transition to a low-carbon economy will put more jobs at danger in regions with higher percentages of employment in carbon-intensive industries.
The proportion of enterprises in Central, Southeastern and Eastern Europe who regard the transition to stronger climate regulations as a risk outnumbers the proportion that see it as an opportunity. This is 36% as a risk vs. 18% as an opportunity. In comparison, companies in the EU see it as 32% risk, 29% opportunity. Almost 90% of enterprises in CESEE have already taken steps to cut GHG emissions, which is comparable to the EU average.
Businesses in this region stated in a survey that climate change is having an impact on their business (a "significant impact" for one out of every 10 enterprises), which is lower than the EU (57%). EMsmile (talk) 12:59, 12 September 2023 (UTC)
thread_title:  Removed content from "‎Non-market impacts" section 

message: I've deleted this section because this is all covered better in other articles by now, e.g. effects of climate change, climate change vulnerability.
=== Relative impacts ===
The effects of climate change can be compared to other effects on human society and the environment. Future socio-economic development may strongly affect climate change impacts. For example, projections of the number of people at risk of hunger vary significantly according to assumptions over future socio-economic development.
Some ecosystems are likely to be especially affected by climate change (e.g., coral reefs). In the long-term (beyond 2050), climate change may become the major driver for biodiversity loss globally.
The socio-economic impacts of climate change are likely to be greatest in communities that face other stresses., in For example, poor communities are vulnerable to extreme weather events, and are likely to be especially affected by climate change. In general, however, other changes (e.g., demographic and technological) are likely to have a greater effect on human society than climate change. On the other hand, major ("non-marginal") impacts could occur with abrupt changes in natural and social systems. Scientific understanding of abrupt changes is limited.* Sec 3.1, in: Ch 3: Understanding the social cost of carbon, in  (pp.20-21 of PDF).
* "More research, more uncertainty?", in 
Another consideration is how vulnerability to climate change varies with scale. At local scales, extreme weather events can have a significant impact, especially in vulnerable locations. Another potentially significant impact is the long-term effect of sea-level rise on low-lying coastal areas. EMsmile (talk) 07:56, 13 September 2023 (UTC)
thread_title:  Deleted section on relative impacts 

message: The effects of climate change can be compared to other effects on human society and the environment. Future socio-economic development may strongly affect climate change impacts. For example, projections of the number of people at risk of hunger vary significantly according to assumptions over future socio-economic development.
Some ecosystems are likely to be especially affected by climate change (e.g., coral reefs). In the long-term (beyond 2050), climate change may become the major driver for biodiversity loss globally.
The socio-economic impacts of climate change are likely to be greatest in communities that face other stresses., in For example, poor communities are vulnerable to extreme weather events, and are likely to be especially affected by climate change. In general, however, other changes (e.g., demographic and technological) are likely to have a greater effect on human society than climate change. On the other hand, major ("non-marginal") impacts could occur with abrupt changes in natural and social systems. Scientific understanding of abrupt changes is limited.* Sec 3.1, in: Ch 3: Understanding the social cost of carbon, in  (pp.20-21 of PDF).
* "More research, more uncertainty?", in 
Another consideration is how vulnerability to climate change varies with scale. At local scales, extreme weather events can have a significant impact, especially in vulnerable locations. Another potentially significant impact is the long-term effect of sea-level rise on low-lying coastal areas. EMsmile (talk) 07:56, 13 September 2023 (UTC)
thread_title:  Relative impacts 

message: It says "A coal-fired power plant in Luchegorsk, Russia. A carbon tax would tax the  emitted from the power station". Can we have the citation to support that Russia is to charge the power station with carbon tax? Thanks.--ThomasYehYeh (talk) 13:15, 15 October 2023 (UTC)
replies: text: the caption didn't say that Russia is indeed charging a carbon tax, so no citation is needed. But to make it clearer, I have now changed the second sentence of the caption to: . Is that better? EMsmile (talk) 16:36, 15 October 2023 (UTC)
thread_title:  Caption for File:Prim GRES.jpg（excerpt from [[Carbon tax]]） 

message: There was quite a lot of new text, updating to IPCC AR6 and restructuring of the article following its merger  with economic impacts article
# improved the lead to better reflect and balance content
# improved, more comprehensive purposes section
# types of economic models following IPCC + new section on statistical models
# analytical frameworks is more balanced in describing methods other than CBA
# Costs of impacts of climate change is better structured into global estimates, regional and sectoral. 
# the global section was improved with information on the 'what' and the 'how' of these estimates and updated with AR6 findings
# new separate sections detailing the costs of adaptation and mitigation measures excerpting from those sub- articles
# reorgansing text in section on challenges and debates, and updating some which go back quite a long way
Possible further improvements are :
# regional and sectoral estimates of economic impacts - main sectors and affected regions, including links to relevant articles still needs work and updating from old sources
# Risk management method - I think this should be more focussed on the - iterative risk management concept that is embedded in IPCC work
# additional analytical frameworks/methods to be added could be Real options analysis, multi-criteria analysis
# there is quite a big reliance on excerpts from other articles which is not ideal
# very few studies of climate change are integrated into main articles covering the economic frameworks here eg CBA, CEA
Richarit (talk) 16:40, 6 June 2024 (UTC)
thread_title:  Summary of edits made Jan-April 2024 and possible further improvements