Talk:2006 Atlantic hurricane season/Gordon

message: NRL backup site says we have a 93L, right behind Florence at 22.2N 47.2W. It appears that 91L survived Florence and wasn't quite absorbed. --Coredesat talk. o_O 01:15, 9 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: And now it's on the main site. --Coredesat talk. o_O 01:15, 9 September 2006 (UTC)

text: (edit conflict) 91L has survived Florence's wrath and returned to the NRL as 93L, and 07L on SSD. Current position is 22.2N 47.2W. -- RattleMan 01:15, 9 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Must have been a real fighter, very impressive to see a trpical wave survive Florence's wrath. --§ Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody (talk + contribs + userboxes) 01:26, 9 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: I know. It's kinda small, and disorganized, I can't see this becoming TD7 anytime soon, though I would love to be proved wrong. →Cyclone1→ 12:01, 9 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Yeah I agree. It deserves it after fighting off Florence successfully. CrazyC83 16:33, 9 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Looks to me like just some debris Florence left behind. -- §HurricaneERIC§ archive 18:21, 9 September 2006 (UTC)

text: I'm no meterologist or anything, but I think that now its simply a cluster of isolated thunderstorms, but if it manages to develop and form low-level low, then its a tropical depression, but if it alrady has TS-force winds (in case), it will instantly be Tropical Storm Gordon when it also forms a low-level low. In addition, shear produced by Flornce may alter the blob's ability to develop. --§ Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody (talk + contribs + userboxes) 21:15, 9 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Mostly right, but it can have an associated surface low, but if that low pressure does not have a closed center, it's not a tropical cyclone.  I assume, then, that the invest is the more northerly system.  This one definately has a surface circulation (and low according to the TWO), but it might be too broad or elongated to be considered a cyclone.  Im not a mind-reader, so I dont know what the NHC is thinking. -Runningonbrains 21:32, 9 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: It's beggining to look a little better. →Cyclone1→ 21:45, 9 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: But I guess the NHC could be considering for a 30-5 mph depression or tropical low. --§ Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody (talk + contribs + userboxes) 23:08, 9 September 2006 (UTC)

text: I don't get it, it has a closed circulation with better clouds but the NHC seems to be acting like a rebelling adolscent. --§ Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody (talk + contribs + userboxes) 19:31, 10 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Not to even mention a wave coming out of Africa right now. --§ Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody (talk + contribs + userboxes) 19:33, 10 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Looks like TD7 to me. But I'm not the NHC, so... →Cyclone1→ 22:57, 10 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: I think they heard me. Danger area up. →Cyclone1→ 22:59, 10 September 2006 (UTC)

text: Holy crap! It's gone! ... Probably Not for long though, like how it dissapeard breifly before. Ok seriously, I'm not talking anymore unyil someone else does. Lol. →Cyclone1→ 23:22, 10 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Well, It's not phisically gone, just off the NRL right now. Ok! Now I'm shutting up! →Cyclone1→ 23:24, 10 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: I still have 93L on NRL. It has an impressive sat img, too. —BazookaJoe 23:30, 10 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Yeah, It's back on NRL. →Cyclone1→ 23:41, 10 September 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: 93L.INVEST

message: Now TD7 on NRL. -- RattleMan 00:55, 11 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Huh?!? I don't don't see it. Where is it? — § Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody (talk +  userboxes + edits + contribs) 01:04, 11 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Oh, never mind, I see it. Gordon could be at his doorsteps by now. —  01:13, 11 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: If this does become Gordon, based off of the models, it is not likely to be retired unless it causes especially severe damage in Bermuda, since this is going to take a fairly similar path as Florence. —BazookaJoe 01:36, 11 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Things can change in a heartbeat though. CrazyC83 01:44, 11 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: But it could change its course and hit the US coast. —  01:48, 11 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: That's true, but I think dissipation is very possible/ CrazyC83 01:57, 11 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: I was gonna say all these things but my internet connection gave out. I actually am suprised Florence stayed on the path the models said it would. I do think storm won't follow the models or Florence. guitarhero777777 02:18, 11 September 2006 (UTC)

text: Maybe, maybe not... —  02:30, 11 September 2006 (UTC)

text: .... OK, that was extremely vague. Runningonbrainis, interesting point, though all factors so far seem to indicate a fish storm; models and Florence possibly bringing it northward. In response to your question, the models did have a bit of a problem between John and Kristy doing the dance, IIRC. Hurricanehink (talk) 02:37, 11 September 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: 07L.NONAME

message: Confirmed by NHC. bob rulz 02:53, 11 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: I don't see it... Jake52 My talk 02:56, 11 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Ctrl-F5 if you are using the same browser I am. The center of the 5-day cone is east of Bermuda. A straight-on path to the U.S. is extremely unlikely. —BazookaJoe 02:59, 11 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: "THIS IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST...AND THE NORTHWARD MOTION LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD CAN BE INTERPRETED TO MEAN WE ARE NOT YET SURE IF THIS CYCLONE WILL RECURVE." bob rulz 03:06, 11 September 2006 (UTC)

text: Indeed. I was just about to add a tag-on to my comment. —BazookaJoe 03:08, 11 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: What does this edit summary mean? The discussion is wrong, the interpretation of it in the article is unclear/incorrect, or Chacor's just requesting a cite? I don't know whether to reword, remove or just add the cite. TransUtopian 04:46, 11 September 2006 (UTC)

text: I'm clueless myself on this one. There are too many variables to name. CrazyC83 04:50, 11 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text:  (edit conflict) Nowhere in the advisory does it say anything like "convection broke off of Florence" to create TD7. It does say it "ESCAPED...FROM THE NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER HURRICANE FLORENCE", but that just means that the storm is no longer under the shear produced by Florence. —AySz88\^-^ 04:53, 11 September 2006 (UTC)

text: New Dvorak estimates are T2.5/2.5 which would warrant an upgrade. -- WmE 12:37, 11 September 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: Tropical Depression Seven

message: NRL page just put it up! SargeAbernathy 18:03, 11 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Will the NHC publish an intermediate advisory at 18h00 UTC?Tropische Storm Sven 18:11, 11 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: I imagine the first advisory will be at 5 PM EDT, since it's not an immediate threat to land. The 2:05 PM TWD (which is late...) may have something. --Coredesat talk. o_O 18:16, 11 September 2006 (UTC)

text: No, nothing too unexpected.  Just a mention of the AOL of the african cost as a "special feature".  They're talking as if TD7 "may" become a TS. SargeAbernathy 18:23, 11 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: OK, thanks, i didn`t realise they only publish intermediate advisories, when it is a threat to land.Tropische Storm Sven 18:35, 11 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: SHIPS brings Gordon to a 75 kt cane in just 72 hours! -- WmE 18:42, 11 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: A watch or warning needs to be out for intermediate advisories to be issued. CrazyC83 18:57, 11 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: The NRL-page even has it up for 40 kts now! Tropische Storm Sven 19:05, 11 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: NRL=NHC.  It all comes from the ATCF software during the production of their regular advisory package issued 2-3 hours later.  Thegreatdr 19:10, 11 September 2006 (UTC)

text: I removed the line in the article that said "It will be upgraded to Tropical Storm Gordon at 5pm."  It sounds like "crystal ball" stuff.  When it's upgraded, then it can be mentioned.  But there's no certainty until it does.    -PK9 20:40, 11 September 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: 07L.GORDON

message: And confirmation by NHC. -- WmE 20:48, 11 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: NHC is expecting a hurricane out of this. Hurricanehink (talk) 21:05, 11 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: And given its size and forecast track relatively far east of Bermuda, the island will probably and hopefully be spared much of this storm. —BazookaJoe 21:10, 11 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Never trust a forecast that far out. →Cyclone1→ 21:16, 11 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: I have to agree with Bazooka Joe. This thing, no matter how strong it gets, is unlikely to affect land. The current forecast track is well east of Bermuda and the past few forecast have been shifting east. -- §HurricaneERIC§ archive 22:06, 11 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: 90% chance of a fish-spinner here. The best chance for land impact IMO is if it survives to Europe. CrazyC83 23:47, 11 September 2006 (UTC)

text: Rapid strengthening a possibility? I do not really see much wind shear in its immediate future and the circulation is rather tight (unliked lopsided Florence). Cannot say I trust any track forecasts at this point in time. Too early to tell. We all saw what Ernesto did, so much for a GoM monster. I can tell you what is not going to happen though, it is not going to turn around and make a beeline for New Orleans. At least I hope not. The great kawa 00:03, 12 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Well Ernesto could have been a hurricane while a few forecasters thought it was actually an error but they were nonetheless, many people were overestimating it for safety precautions like NASA. But Gordon may simply be an offshore fishspinner. — § Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody (T +  U + E + C) - (Remembering 9/11) 02:02, 12 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Gordon is at 45kts according to NRL. That means 55mph. That's impressive, for a tropical storm to intensify like this. bob rulz 02:26, 12 September 2006 (UTC)

text: 60 mph now. It shouldn't be long before we have another Hurricane Gordon that will not get its name retired. The great kawa 02:42, 12 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: At least this time it will actually have a good reason for not being retired (no landfall and no damage). Jake52 My talk 15:04, 12 September 2006 (UTC)

text: Can you link it up at the top? It gets crazy when people are keeping articles in their sandboxes, with different versions and such. Good kitty 21:31, 12 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: What do you mean? Anyway take a look...he has to be a hurricane now. He has an open eye! CrazyC83 23:25, 12 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Wow! That's a good one. The convection around it also looks tight and strong. I will be quite surprised if it's not upgraded in the next advisory. -- §HurricaneERIC§ archive 23:34, 12 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text:  *Touches the steaming Atlantic Ocean* Yow!!! hot, hot, hot, hot! The Atlantic is roasting! I think I already got my hands all burnt up alright, water temperatures seem excellent for hurricanes but look at all of the dry air and shear which forced the NOAA to reduce their numbers. Thankfully no "Katrina" formed again this year so far; we could be watching a tame season. — § Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody (T +  U + E + C) - (Remembering 9/11) 01:10, 13 September 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: Tropical Storm Gordon 

message: 65 kt and 987 mb from NRL. Jake52 My talk 02:09, 13 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Wha-hoo!!! Here we go!... — § Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody (T +  U + E + C) - (Remembering 9/11) 02:57, 13 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Gordon's beginning to look very annular.  Could be the first major hurricane of the year if it pans out. -Runningonbrains 14:28, 13 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: I don't know about annular but he is looking quite impressive. CrazyC83 17:21, 13 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: He's looking the way a hurricane is supposed to look, and is not quite annular. He is not perfectly axisymmetric; rainbands are hard to find; and don't forget that fewer than 1% of Atlantic tropical cyclones encounter all of the environmental conditions associated with annular hurricanes. But hey, that would be cool if he is/will be. —BazookaJoe 19:38, 13 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: 5 PM. 110 mph Category 2 (now 2006 AHS's strongest & strongest storm named Gordon).Mitchazenia 20:44, 13 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: And still strengthening. Likely to be a major soon. Amazing that the only storm without any need for an article is the strongest! (Since no land is in the way, no article is needed) CrazyC83 20:47, 13 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Forecast to become the first major hurricane of the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season!! -- WmE 20:56, 13 September 2006 (UTC)

text: Lets not go through this again, what about Debby, she did nothing.Mitchazenia 20:48, 13 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: We had a Debby? The great kawa 21:00, 13 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Wait...what are we going through? I'm confused...what are you talking about Mitchazenia? bob rulz 21:34, 13 September 2006 (UTC)

text: The argument over the Debby (2006) article.Mitchazenia 21:44, 13 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Ah, okay, you're talking about creating articles. bob rulz 21:47, 13 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: That's what i wanna avoid-its up to the big guys (hink, Chacor).Mitchazenia 21:47, 13 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Why does it have to be up to them? Everybody's opinion gets considered, it's not like we're ignored. bob rulz 21:56, 13 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: I agree with both of you. We do have a say bob, but mitchazenia has a point in that what the "big guys" say has much more impact than what I will ever say (unless I become a world leader.). Now can we please get back to the Gordon topic. I don't want a storm article argument to start again.guitarhero777777 22:16, 13 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Whoa, I'm a big guy? ;) I'll just say it. Please, no one make an article for Gordon while it's active, at least not now. If it becomes like Ioke, and starts setting records, then maybe, but based on what it's doing and what it has done, there's no need for an article. If you want to talk about the article, Gordon will get an article. It might not wait for the TCR, but it will have to wait. Hurricanehink (talk) 22:34, 13 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: The Canadian model shows it recurving back towards the Azores in about a week. No telling what will be left of Gordon, but still... Good kitty 04:38, 14 September 2006 (UTC)

text: It looks quite round right now... 24.85.160.56 22:14, 13 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Very true, the hurricane is looking nice, but what's most impressive about the system is its eye. Per the latest NRL imagery, the eye is very clear and well-formed. Hurricanehink (talk) 22:34, 13 September 2006 (UTC)

text: Itsby-bitsy Gordon is a marvelous-looking storm. T4.5 Dvorak numbers, moist environment, little wind shear, SAL analysis low; everything looks good for Gordon. A lot of convection has been wrapping around the eyewall and Gordon's eye is really well defined. That tight circulation sure helped in intensification. Even more interesting was that Gordon was exhibiting the awesome stadium effect today.The great kawa 22:39, 13 September 2006 (UTC)

text: Yea, for some reason, when I click to enlarge the image, it shows Gordon as a TS. To see a large version of the current image, click on the image, view previous, then select the most recent image on the top left of the archive. Hurricanehink (talk) 23:58, 13 September 2006 (UTC)

text: The convection doesn't look terribly deep, though. I don't think Cat. 4 yet, though possibly tomorrow. Hurricanehink (talk) 00:24, 14 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: 100kt now on NRL, which would make Gordon the first major hurricane of the season. I know I shouldn't, but it's just too tempting... Gordon is looking increasingly annular *runs away*. Pobbie Rarr 01:31, 14 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Don't be too scared to say it...if this isn't almost totally annular I dont know what is.  And Hink, annular hurricanes typically have shallower convection within the annulus than non-annular storms of similar strength.  I would't be surprised to see UNSCIENTIFIC PREDICTION DELETED!. :-P  -Runningonbrains 02:24, 14 September 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: Hurricane Gordon

message: 100 kt on NRL, as already stated, and the NHC's intensity model package initialized at 100 kt. --Coredesat talk! 02:18, 14 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Officially 105 kt now. CrazyC83 02:49, 14 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: I suspect that the intensity is higher than what the NHC states. The NHC even admitted an intensity consensus between a Dvorak 5.5 and 6.0. Personally, I believe that it is probably closer to 130-135 mph based on its extremely impressive structure and because it has organized a lot more since the 5:00 PM advisory when the were only 10 mph less (its structure is more impressive than almost all Cat 3's I can remember). But because there is no plane in the hurricane to give us estimated winds and actual pressure readings, we will have to settle for satellite estimates. The great kawa 03:02, 14 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Whoa! I never thought a major hurricane would form in an El Nino season, especially in the Atlantic. Looks like the giant fish-spinner, hopes it dosen't become a disater, but look at the cute eye. Looks annular like Epilson. — § Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody (T +  U + E + C) - (Remembering 9/11) 03:33, 14 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Cute eye? You are aware that WP:NOT a chat room to just air out thoughts about this storm, right? The talk page is here to help people compile information to write a better article. You can come to #wiki-hurricanes on freenode if you wish to just talk about the storm. The talk page really is not for that. Mike H. I did "That's hot" first! 03:37, 14 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Alastor, even 1997 had a major hurricane. And you do realize that El Nino effects haven't actually made their way into the Atlantic, right? bob rulz 03:40, 14 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: He is a strong Category 3 right now. If, but really unlikely it will manage to strengthen to a weak or moderate Category 4 hurricane. --IrfanFaiz 07:23, 14 September 2006 (UTC)

text: It was almost there though. I think this could raise debate over what qualifies as an annular hurricane: after all, it's not simply black and white but rather shades of grey. Gordon hasn't quite made it to Daniel-like proportions, but his appearance did raise a few eyebrows (the symmetry, the large eye, etc.). Now Gordon looks unusually elliptical... Pobbie Rarr 14:58, 14 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Elliptical? That is a strange structure for a hurricane/typhoon. --IrfanFaiz 22:32, 14 September 2006 (UTC)

text: Oh my god. --IrfanFaiz 23:15, 15 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Oh my god what? 40mph winds? Pfff. bob rulz 03:25, 16 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Actually, the remnants of Florence aren't going to hit us at all now. We'll just have to wait and see with Gordon. For the record, 40mph might not be much but these mid-tropical cyclones can gust to over 100mph in Britain. In fact, there's usually a few deaths thrown in too. Pobbie Rarr 03:35, 16 September 2006 (UTC)

text: This is one tenacious bastard. It refuses to let go of hurricane intensity. bob rulz 11:09, 17 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Strengthened to 70 knots. – Chacor 14:46, 17 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: A recent satellite photo I saw showed it taking on an annular type of appearance. Those types of hurricanes are traditionally hard to kill. Although I'm still surprised that it strengthened and didn't just maintain intensity. Gordon is probably venting frustration over his non-retirement all those years ago ;). -- §HurricaneERIC§ archive 16:57, 17 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: If it did look annular, it doesn't anymore. I think it's finally about to wind down. It looks a bit more elongated and convection is very thin. It still has a very well-formed eye, though. bob rulz 05:37, 18 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Gordon certainly looks like he will be all puffed out on hitting Portugal/Spain. Southern England will barely feel him, despite the best efforts of the tabloid "predictions" doktorb wordsdeeds 19:57, 19 September 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: Major Hurricane Gordon