Talk:Exit poll

message: And there's the fresh Venezuela case. A win-win for the US, of course. Either their "polls" succeed in swaying the vote or provide "evidence" the vote was rigged. 142.177.127.106 03:42, 20 Aug 2004 (UTC)
replies: text: Funded by the NED - thought so. 142.177.125.172 16:14, 20 Aug 2004 (UTC)
thread_title: Untitled

message: I would like to request a citation alert for the sentence in this article that suggests that UK opinion polls are banned. Harry Hayfield 17:25, 21 October 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: UK polls banned

message: "A famous example of exit poll error occurred in the 1992 UK General Election, when two exit polls predicted a hung parliament."
I've read a good deal about exit polls, and never heard of this, so it's certainly not famous. My question though is did this even happen? What is your source?  —Preceding unsigned comment added by Buon professore (talk • contribs) 06:14, 23 September 2008 (UTC)
thread_title:  What's the source? 

message: There is not a citation in this section. I had asked about a citation a month ago, but no one replied. I was, and still am particularly curious about this purported 1992 error.
"A famous example of exit poll error occurred in the 1992 UK General Election, when two exit polls predicted a hung parliament. The actual vote revealed that Conservative Party Government under John Major held their position, though with a significantly reduced majority."
--Buon professore (talk) 03:18, 21 October 2008 (UTC)
thread_title:  Removed section (Problems) 

message: "Like all opinion polls, exit polls by nature do include a margin of error. A famous example of exit poll error occurred in the 1992 UK General Election, when two exit polls predicted a hung parliament. The actual vote revealed that Conservative Party Government under John Major held their position, though with a significantly reduced majority.
A more fundamental statistical problem with exit polls is selection bias. The polls, though typically much larger than regular opinion polls, still sample only a small fraction of voters. In a heterogeneous population, sloppy selection of the sample can tilt results to any direction. This pitfall can be avoided if the polling organization is competent enough. However, there are problems more inherent to the nature of exit polls. Since the clients (the media) want to publicize results as soon as the real polls close, exit polls must close a few hours earlier. Therefore, late-hour voters are not sampled at all. Some constituents tend to vote early, for example the elderly and stay-at-home mothers, and are oversampled in the exit polls. Other constituents tend to vote late and are under-sampled. This may be the explanation for the 2004 US presidential election discrepancy between early exit polls indicating a Kerry victory, and the final outcome. Additionally, voters may be more or less willing to participate in the exit polls, or more or less willing to sabotage the poll by providing a false vote, depending on their political tendency. This is known as nonresponse and response bias, respectively."
Please explain why you removed this, User:Buon professore ImperatorExercitus (talk) 03:27, 21 October 2008 (UTC)
replies: text: I've restored the mention of the 1992 UK election exit polls -- it is well known in polling circles as the canonical example of the failure of exit polls. It was a result of numerous small factors that combined to produce a significant bias in one direction that was magnified by the sensitivity of the electoral system to small changes in voting behaviour in a close election. Unfortunately much of the research into those exit polls is not available online. Duncan Keith (talk) 05:55, 23 October 2008 (UTC)
thread_title: Explanation, please

message: There's mention of the inventor.  There's no mention of when he invented it (not even on his page, which does mention him doing it since 1963).
So, when was the first exit poll?  What's the freakin' history?!
--jae (talk) 16:17, 28 January 2013 (UTC)
replies: text: I added some info about different views on this subject. Apdency (talk) 10:57, 9 October 2016 (UTC)
thread_title:  History 

message: The lead say not opinion polls (without a source to support it) and then further down they are referred to as opinion polls.  I had a reference which said they were opinion polls.  Could we discuss this to reach consensus? - Shiftchange (talk) 07:00, 29 November 2016 (UTC)
thread_title:  Opinion polls or not 

message: Hello fellow Wikipedians,
I have just modified one external link on Exit poll. Please take a moment to review my edit. If you have any questions, or need the bot to ignore the links, or the page altogether, please visit this simple FaQ for additional information. I made the following changes:
*Added archive https://web.archive.org/web/20130607000655/http://news.bgnes.com/view/1085673 to http://news.bgnes.com/view/1085673
When you have finished reviewing my changes, you may follow the instructions on the template below to fix any issues with the URLs.
Cheers.—InternetArchiveBot (Report bug) 00:20, 15 December 2017 (UTC)
thread_title:  External links modified 

message: In addition to "exit poll", I also come across "late poll" as an indicator of actual election results from randomly selected polling stations. But I see this term mostly on Polish websites regarding Polish elections. "Late poll" is misleading because it suggests some kind of "poll", but after all, the actual results, though  partial, are not a poll at all. Probably the term "late poll" was created by someone who does not know the English word "poll".
PS. I found the following definition on a Polish website:
Late poll is the results of an exit poll taking into account 50 percent of the official results from the polling stations.
Could you please enlighten me? 37.26.194.132 (talk) 15:48, 17 October 2023 (UTC)
thread_title:  Misleading "late poll"?