Talk:2006 Atlantic hurricane season/Ernesto

message: Central Atlantic, 10N 47W. -- RattleMan 18:03, 22 August 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: It's about time. If this wave can escape the huge SAL layer nearby I think it has potential. bob rulz 18:12, 22 August 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: The models take it NW, so it should do. Pobbie Rarr 02:52, 23 August 2006 (UTC)

text: Whoa!! I expected a few models to point at TS strength, but all of them? →Cyclone1→ 16:20, 23 August 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Danger area up.  →Cyclone1→ 16:22, 23 August 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Wow, newest SHIPS run brings this to a Cat 2. in 120 hours. Furthermore it looks impressive. -- WmE 18:23, 23 August 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Can you give me a link please? →Cyclone1→ 18:44, 23 August 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Latest SHIPS run. --Coredesat talk. ^_^ 19:00, 23 August 2006 (UTC)

text: Tropical waves sometimes have TS force winds, but they have no closed LLC yet. So this isn't a TD yet. -- WmE 19:36, 23 August 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Conditions seem favorable for development in the carribean, however ...remember Chris?? ;) BTW sorry Randy, I saw it too late, but Coredesat gave you the link. -- WmE 19:34, 23 August 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Lol, no problem. That's the first time anyone's ever used my real name on Wikipedia. →Cyclone1→ 20:02, 23 August 2006 (UTC)

text: Windspeed does not a tropical depression make.  You can have a 30 mph depression since there is not a minimum.  --Holderca1 19:35, 23 August 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Shear is expected to decrease as the blob moves westward, and the SST's are favorable for rapid intensification - at least 4-7°F warmer than the waters beneath Debby. CrazyC83 19:39, 23 August 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Whoa... That's not good. →Cyclone1→ 20:06, 23 August 2006 (UTC)

text: I hate it when they wait till the next day. →Cyclone1→ 20:46, 23 August 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: It's killing us, but we're controling ourselves. →Cyclone1→ 00:26, 24 August 2006 (UTC)

text: models becoming more bullish, taking it to Cat. 2 by 120hrs, at 18Z intensity jj 23:58, 23 August 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Wow! That's insane. →Cyclone1→ 00:26, 24 August 2006 (UTC)

text: Automatic Tropical Cyclone Formation alert (12 am UTC) グリフオーザー 00:44, 24 August 2006 (UTC)

text: It has a reds in infrared images, i think it is developing a low level circulation in decreasing wind shear and warm waters. -Irfanfaiz 12:56, 24 August 2006 (UTC)

text: Departure time 16Z. – Chacor 14:53, 24 August 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Plane just found a closed circulation!! -- WmE 18:38, 24 August 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Didn't see your post, easily seen on the loop.  --Holderca1 18:53, 24 August 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Right, the circulation can be seen easily. However, this could also be an MLC, so one should wait for the recon, to get the confirmation. -- WmE 19:01, 24 August 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: 97L.INVEST

message: STDS:
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE 
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS 
DEVELOPED A CLOSED WIND CIRCULATION...AND ADVISORIES ON EITHER A 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM WILL BE INITIATED AT 5 PM 
AST. MAXIMUM WINDS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE JUST BELOW TROPICAL 
STORM STRENGTH...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT STRONGER WINDS MAY BE 
OBSERVED PRIOR TO ADVISORY TIME. 
so we've TD5 or ernseto!! -- WmE 19:17, 24 August 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Yep, it is TD5 now and is too late for a special advisory. CrazyC83 19:20, 24 August 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: This thing is going to get sheared apart in the next few days. EHoffman 19:45, 24 August 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Shear?  There is hardly any shear in the Caribbean.  --Holderca1 19:54, 24 August 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: The shear is forecast to dissipate, but at the moment there is a good amount in its path.  If it makes it into the Gulf, it should be good to go.--EHoffman 19:59, 24 August 2006 (UTC)

text: Some gray in latest IR satelite  Hello32020 20:33, 24 August 2006 (UTC)

text: And here comes the next one. Just like Beryl, Ernesto has never become a hurricane, but most models seem confident that this thing will make it. Jake52 My talk 20:39, 24 August 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: This does seem like the curse of 06. Every storm (pending Debby) was forecast to be a hurricane but never made it. guitarhero777777 22:25, 24 August 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Beryl was never expected to be a hurricane; it actually beat expectations. CrazyC83 22:34, 24 August 2006 (UTC)

text: Ehh, I'd recommend a little later. I think whichever of the following comes first is good; first hurricane warning, first info on preparations/evacs, first damage report. A tropical storm watch might go up soon for Jamaica, but there'd still be no need for an article. Hurricanehink (talk) 21:05, 24 August 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Unless there is a fairly large amount of damage in Jamaica (unlikely though) Hello32020 21:47, 24 August 2006 (UTC)

text: The TD.  The current trajectory predicts that it will become a TS within a day.  Fabricationary 22:42, 24 August 2006 (UTC)

text: TS in a day huh? The season becomes suddenly active near September, like 2002. --Irfanfaiz 00:33, 25 August 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: The Atlantic now seems to be speeding up in production. Alastor Moody (talk) 02:49, 25 August 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Well September is the heart of the hurricane season.Reub2000 06:03, 25 August 2006 (UTC)

text: Debby is only a 2.0.  --Holderca1 14:36, 25 August 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: Tropical Depression Five

message: Ernesto now up!! -- WmE 18:42, 25 August 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: This is going to be unfortunate. It in a spot where it is going to hit something.  Only hope is it fizzles out, but models don't seem to think so.  --Holderca1 19:00, 25 August 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Only the name's up at the moment. NRL hasn't issued a new image yet. Pobbie Rarr 19:02, 25 August 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: What do you mean by a new image?  --Holderca1 19:07, 25 August 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: If you look on NRL, the image still says 05:NONAME with 30kt, though that should change very soon. Pobbie Rarr 19:11, 25 August 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Are you talking about the forecast track?  That won't update until the NHC comes out with their forecast.  The satellite image says Ernesto on it.  --Holderca1 19:14, 25 August 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Oh it does now, they've just changed it. No problem. :) Pobbie Rarr 19:20, 25 August 2006 (UTC)

text: We simply don't know. It might not even develop that well if it catches up with the trough currently ahead of its path. Pobbie Rarr 19:38, 25 August 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: True. Ernesto (If it intensifies) actually seems to have more of a proximity to strike Florida from the above track models. Wouldn't be as bad, espeacially if it's disrupted by our little saving grace. But, uh... that doesn't always save us... But, you're right, we're still waiting for formation.  →Cyclone1→ 19:47, 25 August 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Unfortunatly, it looks to me like it's heading towards New Orleans. Looks like it may be a strong one too. Hello32020 20:27, 25 August 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: 05L.ERNESTO

message: Gone from NRL after becoming an impressive extratropical gale, though the latest HPC advisory still has it with some tropical characteristics for now. --Coredesat talk. ^_^ 00:07, 2 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: It's now a tropical depression or just a tropical low? (I don't think it is extratropical) CrazyC83 01:36, 2 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: It's almost fully extratropical now. Most of the models show Ernesto losing its warm core (the only tropical characteristic it still has), and it's developed a front. Unfortunately, it's also stalled out over eastern Virginia, and that's causing extremely heavy rainfall over the eastern Mid-Atlantic. 10.43 inches in Virginia Beach, and 10.07 inches in Upper Sherando, on the other side of the state. --Coredesat talk. ^_^ 08:59, 2 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: It also has TS winds once again - last update had 50mph winds... CrazyC83 17:35, 2 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Ex-Ernesto is now maybe a large supercell over New England. --§ Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody (talk + contribs + userboxes) 23:05, 2 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: We are just starting to get some rain from the remnants of Ernesto in Toronto.WotGoPlunk 03:51, 3 September 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Winds now down to 35 mph. --§ Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody (talk + contribs + userboxes) 07:16, 3 September 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: Extratropical