Talk:Affective forecasting

message: Changed class to undefined, so it can be defined by the proper Wikiproject Ethulin (talk) 23:54, 26 March 2012 (UTC)
replies: text: Affective forecasting is an established term used in a wide range of research to refer to a specific thing that people do. "Psychological immune system" is an off-hand term used by one or two researchers (whom I greatly admire!) to refer to a fuzzy collection of different processes. MartinPoulter (talk) 18:20, 2 March 2012 (UTC)
replies: text: I agree, 'affective forecasting' is a more general and better term;  'Psychological immune system' not as much so.   I also agree that the sample questions are detailed and out of context and should probably be removed (or at the very least moved and contextualized much better). --Jayzzee (talk) 01:42, 3 March 2012 (UTC)
replies: text: Okay, I see what you're saying about specificity, but I still don't know what the "psychological immune system" construct is doing here. The talk history indicates that the rationale to merge articles was because both were formerly stubs. I'd like to expand affective forecasting—assuming I beef it up, do you think that the psych immune system section should remain as is? No23139116 (talk) 05:35, 3 March 2012 (UTC)
replies: text: I think an affective forecasting page will probably refer to psychological immune system because some of the prominent researchers on this issue use the term. (Because we do not think about the things that help us cope, we over estimate the influence of emotional events.) So, you could keep what's there, but I could also imagine some editing or cutting. Right now the balance seems quite off --I think that 'immune system' should be a much smaller proportion of the content on a forecasting page. As this page grows I could imagine them becoming separate pages again too.   --Jayzzee (talk) 15:58, 3 March 2012 (UTC)
replies: text: Sounds reasonable; copy that. No23139116 (talk) 20:54, 4 March 2012 (UTC)
thread_title: Change

message: I am currently working with a group of fellow psychology students to enrich the content of the affective forecasting Wiki. We are considering three specific additions to the page content:
1) The region-beta paradox is only briefly mentioned in the immune neglect section. The page currently states that this process "complicates forecasting, leading to errors". It does not, however, discuss how this complication affects ecologically valid behaviors. Our group is interested in filling this gap using recent experimental work from Cameron and Payne (2011). These authors found evidence that the region-beta paradox helps to explain the collapse of compassion phenomenon, where individuals’ compassion decreases as the number of people in need of help increases. In study 2 participants read about either 1 or a group of 8 children from Darfur, and were told that they would be asked to make a donation later in the experiment. Using a dynamic measure of affect, the researchers assessed whether collapse of compassion results from proactive emotional regulation driven by accurate affective forecasts, or reactive regulation in response to currently experienced negative emotions. The results suggest that only skilled emotion regulators experience collapse of compassion, and that they do so by proactively regulating their emotions prior to the onset of any initial negative affect. In order to further establish the causal role of proactive emotional regulation in the collapse of compassion phenomenon, study 3 participants read the same materials and were encouraged to either down-regulate or experience their emotions. Participants instructed to down-regulate their emotions reported feeling less upset for 8 children than for 1, presumably because of the increased emotional burden and regulatory effort required for the former (an example of the region-beta paradox).
2) The wikipedia page is missing information about personality neglect. Personality neglect is a theory that individuals overlook their personalities when making decisions about the future. We think this should be apart of the page as it is a characteristic of affective forecasting. In a study done by Quoidbach & Dunn (2010), they used students feelings about future exam score predictions as a way to measure the effect. They had students rate their dispositional happiness before they received their exam grades. They also rated how they would feel two weeks after receiving their exam grades. They found that individuals failed to to relate their personal dispositional happiness to their future emotional state. This was not enough information to provide enough proof of personality neglect so they performed a second study. Study 2 had participants rate their own happiness and neuroticism. This time, they used participants future feeling predictions about a US presidential election between Obama and McCain. They found that neuroticism was correlated with impact bias, the overestimation in feelings of how long and intense those feelings were. Individuals who had higher rated neurotic traits, showed a stronger tendency to overestimate happiness linked with a positive event. 
3) The positive vs. negative affect section is extremely brief and generalized, and our group feels it is important to elaborate on the differences between positive and negative affects, and the variables that play a role in the differences.  The section currently just states that “accuracy in affective forecasting is greater for positive than negative affect.”  This broad and vague claim as it is now is not entirely correct, as displayed by the findings of Finkenauer, Gallucci, van Dijk, & Pollman (2007).  The researchers studied the diaries of students who were soon to take their driver’s license exam, and made affective forecasts about the outcome of the upcoming exam in their diaries.  Finkenauer et al. (2007)  discovered that people showed greater forecasting accuracy for positive affect than negative affect when the event/trigger is distant and greater forecasting accuracy for negative affect when the event/trigger is closer in time.  This compelling distinction and including the influence of time for accuracy of positive and negative affects is critical in updating this brief section with more extensive and correct information than what is currently present. 
Cameron, C., & Payne, B. (2011). Escaping affect: How motivated emotion regulation creates insensitivity to mass suffering. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 100, 1-15.
Finkenauer, C., Gallucci, M., van Dijk, W., & Pollmann, M. (2007). Investigating the role of time in affective forecasting: Temporal influences on forecasting accuracy. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 33, 1152-1166.
Quoidbach, J., & Dunn, E. W. (2010). Personality neglect: The unforeseen impact of personal dispositions on emotional life. Psychological Science, 21, 1783-1786.
ThePhilosophyof9 (talk) 03:23, 9 March 2015 (UTC)
thread_title:  Page additions 

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