Talk:Predictions of the collapse of the Soviet Union

message: Don't forget to include Zbigniew Brzezinski on this list.—thames 03:47, 19 April 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: we need a cite. Here are clear statements otherwise: in 1976 he was predicting the Soviet Union would be practically unchanged for several more generations to come: "A central question, however, is whether such social change [modernization] is capable of altering, or has in fact already altered in a significant fashion, the underlying character of Soviet politics. That character, as I have argued, has been shaped largely by political traditions derived from the specifics of Russian / Soviet history, and it is deeply embedded in the operational style and institutions of the existing Soviet system. The ability of that system to resist de-Stalinization seems to indicate a considerable degree of resilience on the part of the dominant mode of politics in the Soviet context. It suggests, at the very least, that political changes are produced very slowly through social change, and that one must wait for at least several generations before social change begins to be significantly reflected in the political sphere." from his essay in The Dynamics of Soviet Politics, ed. Paul Cocks, (1976) pp 337-51 
A few weeks after Reagan's prediction of the fall of Communism Brzezinski responded (June 9, 1983): "The Soviet Union may be beset by massive domestic crises by the late 1980s, but these problems will probably still be contained by the highly regimented and bureaucratically assertive Soviet political system. " In Quest of National Security p 14.  Rjensen 05:07, 19 April 2006 (UTC)

text: Brzezinski wrote The Grand Failure, which was published in 1989 before the collapse of Soviet power throughout Eastern Europe and the fall of the Berlin Wall.  In that book he predicts such a collapse.  See review here: .  Also, the Zbigniew Brzezinski article says that his master's thesis predicted a break-up of the Soviet Union along ethnic nationality lines, which this interview with Brzezinski corroborates.—thames 15:28, 19 April 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Please add it-- i dont have time between classes now, I have learned that asking others to do things on talk pages never works, no one bothers.  MAybe with a similar caveat as Kennan on this page, that he predicted its collapse, then change his mind.  So please, add it.  Thanks for contributions!Travb 17:25, 19 April 2006 (UTC)
replies: text:  At age 20 Brzezinski in 1950 in an unpublished paper predicted the breakup of the USSR. Indeed. The problem is that when he did publish he said the USSR would last for generations. His predictions in 1989 were pretty thin gruel. His basic explanation for the weakness of the USSR is copied from Reagan's 1982 address. [ "failed to take into account the basic human craving for individual freedom ..." (p. 242).]  He said there were 5 possibilities for USSR:  identified five alternatives: 1. Successful pluralization, 2. Protracted crisis, 3. Renewed stagnation, 4. Coup (KGB, Military) and 5. The explicit collapse of the Communist regime. Yes, but which was most likely. He said #5 "at this stage a much more remote possibility" than alternative 2 of renewed stagnation (p. 245) FALSE PREDICTION.  He also predicted chances of some form of communism existing in Soviet in 2017 was a little more than 50% (p. 243). FALSE PREDICTION. Finally when the end does come in a few more decades it will be  "most likely turbulent" (p. 255).  Another FALSE PREDICTION.  So here we have someone after Reagan left office  making predictions that were wrong. Here's a man who will never win the office pool re the playoffs. Rjensen 17:42, 19 April 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: The value of his predictions is certainly debatable.  Still, he warrants inclusion because a significant number of people include him amongst those who made predictions of the USSR's collapse.  We would have an uncomprehensive article otherwise.—thames 18:25, 19 April 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: yes WIKI should include him and explain what he said. It is Brzezinski himself who goes around boasting of his predictions. Rjensen 18:39, 19 April 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: Zbigniew Brzezinski

message: Kennan needs to be cited.  I will leave it on the page for a week or two, then I will delete it if it is not cited. I think it is important to verfiy everything on this page.Travb 17:28, 19 April 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Working on it.—thames 17:34, 19 April 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: Kennan

message: The longish title is quite unwieldy.  Would my fellow editors approve of a page move to Predictions of the collapse of the Soviet Union or something to that effect?  The Manual of Style prefers the most common terms in namespaces, and the USSR's article on Wikipedia uses "Soviet Union", so I think we ought to use it as well here.  Also to consider, is collapse the best word?  Should we consider "fall", "dissolution",or "breakup"?  I don't necessarily have a preference on this point.—thames 18:38, 19 April 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: yes I prefer "Predicting Soviet collapse". Most of the predictors are individuals not groups, and it was not necessarily tied to Cold War. Rjensen 21:41, 19 April 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: I don't think "Predicting" would work, as namespaces are supposed to be nouns rather than verbs.  But "Predictions of Soviet collapse" would still work just fine.  If you and Travb aren't opposed I can go ahead and make that move.—thames 22:26, 19 April 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: yes I'm ok with "Predictions of Soviet collapse" Rjensen 22:35, 19 April 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: moved....Travb 04:11, 20 April 2006 (UTC)
thread_title:  Namespace 

message: Let's not forget him either, despite making his predictions back in the 1920s.  In fact, Brzezinski's master's thesis bears a striking resemblance to Pilsudski's idea of using nationalities to break apart the Soviet Union.—thames 04:54, 20 April 2006 (UTC)
thread_title:  Józef Pilsudski 

message: ::::Got it! Point your browser of choice to http://www.norfacad.pvt.k12.va.us/fac_staff/~rezelman/research.htm , search for "Collier" and check out the cover of the October 27, 1951 issue :) Ahasuerus 04:58, 18 April 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: Moved from: [[User talk:Travb]]

message: ...In a conversation with User:Ahasuerus we agreed to limit the time period to post world war 2, since before WW2 so many people thought that the USSR would collapse that it makes the category unwieldly. Maybe the title: Cold-War groups which predicted the collapse of the USSR? What do you think? "Predicted a Soviet collapse", which KonradWallenrod suggested is a great suggestion, but maybe not precise enough.... Travb 04:31, 18 April 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Why limit to post-World War II?  Why not just be selective in terms of the quality of the individuals or organizations making the predictions?  KonradWallenrod 05:46, 18 April 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: Moved from: [[Wikipedia:Categories_for_deletion#Category:Organizations_and_people_who_predicted_the_collapse_of_the_USSR|Categories_for_deletion]]

message: thanks for your great suggestions,  I agree, that we should be selective in terms of the quality of the individuals. 
Andrei Amalrik and Emmanuel Todd definatly are the best canidates for the list.  Please see this category's talk page for the reason why each person is on the list.  
For example, I hesitated to include Ronald Reagan but included him only because I included Konrad Adenauer, who I am not familar with his writings. 
I have already asked the German wikipedia to please expand on what exactly Klaus Mehnert wrote.  
I created three pages just so that I could add them this category, Klaus Mehnert,  Smenavekhites, and Problems of Communism (journal).  
I wrote the staff of Problems of Communism (journal) to find the article which predicted the fall. 
I will attempt to find all of the articles which "predict" this. 
User:Ahasuerus, (as now mentioned above) said that he found a Collier's Weekly  article which we may want to include
This category is definatly a work in progress.
KonradWallenrod wrote: "Why limit to post-World War II?" See User:Ahasuerus's response, above.
Signed:Travb 07:00, 18 April 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Keep the article. It's an important historiographical debate with numerous articles and books.  It's important for several reasons--as John Gaddis argues, international relations theory is thin gruel if it can't make reasonable predictions. Rjensen 01:38, 19 April 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: I agree with Rjensen.  I also agree with Ahasuerus:  Leave the category to the baying pack, and write a stub today for an article on "Predictions of Soviet collapse."  Anatopism 01:59, 19 April 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Cold-War groups which predicted the collapse of the USSR done.Travb 20:51, 19 April 2006 (UTC)

text: *Limits: Post world war 2.  Emmanuel Todd and Andrei Amalrik should remain in the first paragraph, because they wrote entire books predicting that the Soviet Union will collapse.  Will add sentence from Laqueur, Walter (1996). The Dream that Failed : Reflections on the Soviet Union, USA: Oxford University Press, today. Which will give a caveat: most people didn't seriously think that the USSR would collapse, even those who predicted it (Except for Emmanuel Todd and Andrei Amalrik).Travb 17:49, 20 April 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: Response to [[User:KonradWallenrod|KonradWallenrod]] first posted here

message: p. 187-191
 During the 1930s and 1940s, such predictions about the ultimate fall of the Soviet regime became less popular. But they never disappeared altogether, even not during World War II when Stalinism was riding the crest of the wave.11 (Predictions during World War 2, not included in this article)  
When many Western observers noted the re-emergence under Stalin of Russia as a world power, G. P Fedotov, in his article "The Fall of Soviet Power," astutely noted that revolutionary enthusiasm in the Communist party was already a spent force.12  (Predictions before World War 2, not included in this article)  
Various essays published in samizdat in the early 1970s were on similar lines, some quite specifically predicting the end of the Soviet empire."13 
Predictions ranged from the pessimistic views of veteran foreign correspondents who had lived in the Soviet Union (such as Eugene Lyons, W. H. Chamberlin, and Isaac Don Levine), to that of Boris Souvarine and Bertram Wolfe to less prominent writers such as the Frenchman Michel Garder. 14 
Bernard Levin drew attention in 1992 to his prophetic article originally published in The Times in September 1977, in which an uncannily accurate prediction of the appearance of new faces in the Politburo was made, resulting in radical but peaceful political change.15 
Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan in a series of articles and interviews from 1975 onward discussed the possibility, indeed likelihood, of the breakup of the Soviet Empire. There were dozens of similar statements, now forgotten, made all over the Western world.16 
Footnotes, page 223
 11. See for instance Mark Vishniak, "Pravda Antibolshevizma," Novy Zhurnal 2 (1949), an answer to Milyukov's "Pravda Bolzhevizma." See Chapter 1, n. 23.  
 12. G. P Fedotov, in Novy Grad 6 (1932), reprinted in G. P Fedotov, Imperiya i Svoboda (New York, 1989). This was a review of a book by S. Dimitrievsky, at the time a recent defector. 
13. S. Zorin and N. Alekseev, Vremya ne zhdzt (Frankfurt, 1970); Alexander Petrov-Agatov (manuscript), excerpts in Cornelia Gerstenmaier, Die Stimme der Stummen (Stuttgart, 1971), 156-67.
14. Eugene Lyons and Isaac Don Levine, in Dilemmas of Change in Soviet Politics, ed. Zbigniew Brzezinski (New York, 1969). In the same volume Brzezinski also considered the possibility that the Soviet political system would not be able to withstand a protracted rivalry with the United States (161). See also Michel Garder, L'Agonie du régime en Russie Sovietique (The Death Struggle of the Regime in Soviet Russia) (Paris, 1965). 
The symposium was launched with a review of a significant French book: L'Agonie du Regime en Russie Sovietique (The Death Struggle of the Regime in Soviet Russia) by Michel Garder, a military man who has long specialized in Soviet studies. (394) The death agony, he declares, is evident in "the conflict between a decaying regime that no longer has any justification other than the personal interests of those who profit by it" and "the upper strata of the technological intelligentsia. It is a contest, M. Garder argues, that cannot end in a compromise. 
There is not enough flexibility in the dictatorship. He therefore sees a collapse:probably a non-communist and perhaps anti-communist take-over with the help of the military elites. "Recognition of the harebrained absurdity of a Marxist-Leninist religion," he believes, "has long ago become inevitable for the true elite of the country and is from day to day dawning upon millions of 'average persons." There will come a moment≈he sets the date, imprudently, as 1970≈when the technological masses "will feel impelled to seize power."
15. Bernard Levin, in National Interest, Spring 1993, 64-65. 
16. But Moynihan also expressed the view that liberal democracy, too, faced an uncertain future. Franz Borkenau and Wilhelm Staringer predicted the Sino-Soviet conflict even before Stalin's death.
Signed: Travb 02:50, 21 April 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Fascinating!  Good work.—thames 23:12, 20 April 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Thanks, the above is temporary,just trying to dig up as many people as possible who may have predicted the fall.Travb 23:23, 20 April 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: The Dream that Failed footnotes

message: (Full book online)
===Dr. Hans J. Morgenthau of the University of Chicago===
Dr. Hans J. Morgenthau of the University of Chicago analyzes several types of inertia that may prolong the regime's life, but he is not optimistic on this score. In the past, when under fire, "the regime could fail back upon its doctrine," but now "the erosion of that doctrine heralds the crisis of the regime."
The Kremlin, he writes, "has only been able to control the challenge because it has the power to set relatively narrow limits to open dissent . . . . When a totalitarian regime reaches a stage when it can afford neither to suppress dissent altogether nor to give it free reign, the tendency of the leadership is to fluctuate narrowly between relative permissiveness and relative oppression."
The question, then, is how long can it maneuver in this tight squeeze? Professor Morgenthau sees a "great chance that the regime will be, forced either to revert to Stalinist methods to maintain itself, or else to destroy itself by submitting to competition for political power."
===Professor Brzezinski of Columbia University===
This reluctance to consider the possibility, if not the likelihood, of revolution in Russia is understandable, in the temper of academic prudence. It is even more striking in the brilliant analysis contributed by Professor Brzezinski of Columbia University, who is--at this writing--serving with the State Department as a foreign-policy adviser.
He paints perhaps the most convincing picture of a regime in decline. The party has lost most of its relevance for the new period; in fact, "Soviet history in the last few years has been dominated by the spectacle of a party in search of a role." But officialdom isn't budging: "The apparatchiki are still part of an extremely centralized and rigidly hierarchical bureaucratic organization, increasingly set in its ways, politically corrupted by years of unchallenged power . . . . Institutional conflict combined with mediocre and unstable power makes for ineffective and precarious power, . . . The youth could become a source of ferment, the consumers could become more restless, the scientists more outspoken, the non-Russian nationalities more demanding."
In short, "decay is bound to set in" and "the stability of the political system may be endangered." Already he ' discerns a "re-opening of the gap that existed in pre- revolutionary Russia between the political system and the society, thereby posing the threat of the degeneration of the Soviet system."(397) He identifies in the USSR today some of the same "indicators" of explosion that marked France, tsarist Russia, Chiang Kai-Shek's China and Rakosi's Hungary just before their respective revolutions.
The logic of this analysis points clearly to potentials of collapse. But Brzezinski stops well short of such an "apocalyptic" conclusion. Should the Kremlin choose increasing dogmatism and unleash violence against dissenters, he says, "the possibility of revolutionary outbreaks could not be discounted entirely." But that is as far as he pursues the thought.
Instead he prescribes a basement-to-garret reorganization of the regime: "The progressive transformation of the bureaucratic communist dictatorship into a more pluralistic and institutionalized political system . . . seems essential if its degeneration is to be averted." He spells out the indispensable changes. He doesn't argue that such far-reaching reform, amounting to the advent of a parliamentary-constitutional government, can be peacefully attained. Given his own picture of a decaying, half-paralyzed master-class confronting a pre-revolutionary threat, hidebound by dogma and vested interests, it would seem more "apocalyptic" to expect his suggested transformation than to' foresee a nervous breakdown, such as Russia experienced several times in this century. 
===Wolfgang Leonhard===
 A German specialist who was brought up in Soviet Russia, Wolfgang Leonhard, like the others, stresses "the contradiction between economic objectives and political power interests." Should the 314,000 local party organizations devote themselves to ideological tasks or to guiding the economy? The question is urgent and the Kremlin hasn't answered it, perhaps cannot answer it without surrendering its power. However senseless the Marxist-Leninist religion-plus-economy becomes in practice, Leonhard says, "it is not likely that the party will ever abandon a doctrine which so conveniently justifies the party's role in Soviet society as well as its position within the international communist movement." (398) In effect he poses the question "evolution or revolution?" without attempting to answer it.  (Note: Leonhard never really delved into predicting revolution)
===Robert Conquest, the British student of Soviet affairs===
Perhaps the most persuasive prognosis is set forth by Robert Conquest, the British student of Soviet affairs. He, too, finds "the conditions of a classical Marxist pre- revolutionary situation," but he is less sure that the regime can muddle through. Random patching will not suffice, he believes: "It therefore appears inevitable that the pressures will continue to build up. The question that remains to be answered is whether the political integument will be destroyed explosively or will erode away gently."
But he does not seem convinced that the present leaders can take adequate measures in sufficient time to forestall explosion and adds that "in the USSR today one would not expect a great deal of time to be still available." On balance he must warn that we "should not fall into the temptation of believing the status quo to be as stable as it may appear to the superficial glance."
===Eugene Lyons===
"This is substantially my own feeling. I dare not predict a revolution in Russia, much less set a date for it like M. Garder. But we should not rule it out. It seems to me more reasonable to expect a violent upheaval than to guarantee the stability and durability of the present regime. There is no conflagration but an abundance of materials so inflammable that a spark might ignite them.
Revolution has always seemed "impossible" until it occurs, after which everyone sagely agrees that it had been "inevitable." In the last months of 1916 and the first of 1917, foreign correspondents in Petrograd, including the most anti-regime among them, were still warning that the talk of revolution was premature. A week before the 1953 uprising in East Germany, not one political specialist would have ventured to forecast such an event. The rash of bloody rebellion in Vorkuta and other Soviet concentration camps certainly had not been foreseen by the Kremlin or anyone else.
In both Poland and Hungary, we were assured by Western journalists and diplomats until the moment of the uprisings, all elements of potential revolt had been liquidated. (399) Their Red Armies had been thoroughly indoctrinated, large percentages of their officers corps were party members. Soviet forces were stationed in both countries. The former bourgeoisie had ceased to exist and youth had been brought up by Marxist-Leninist teachers.
After the event, I made a limited survey of published comment on the satellite area during the preceding year by foreign tourists, reporters, and diplomats. While many of them noted grumbling and other signs of ferment, not one mentioned the possibility of popular rebellion, or mentioned it only to deny it. On the tenth anniversary of the Hungarian revolt, Robert Murphy, who had been Deputy Undersecretary of State at the time, told an interviewer, Bob Considine: "We were caught completely by surprise. Sure, we had CIA people in there. I know: I was on the State Department's CIA board. But there was no hint from them of what was about to break out so spontaneously, so emotionally." </font> 
Signed:Travb 02:55, 21 April 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: Workers' Paradise Lost

message: "This is substantially my own feeling. I dare not predict a revolution in Russia, much less set a date for it like M. Garder. But we should not rule it out. It seems to me more reasonable to expect a violent upheaval than to guarantee the stability and durability of the present regime. There is no conflagration but an abundance of materials so inflammable that a spark might ignite them.
Revolution has always seemed "impossible" until it occurs, after which everyone sagely agrees that it had been "inevitable." In the last months of 1916 and the first of 1917, foreign correspondents in Petrograd, including the most anti-regime among them, were still warning that the talk of revolution was premature. A week before the 1953 uprising in East Germany, not one political specialist would have ventured to forecast such an event. The rash of bloody rebellion in Vorkuta and other Soviet concentration camps certainly had not been foreseen by the Kremlin or anyone else.
In both Poland and Hungary, we were assured by Western journalists and diplomats until the moment of the uprisings, all elements of potential revolt had been liquidated. (399) Their Red Armies had been thoroughly indoctrinated, large percentages of their officers corps were party members. Soviet forces were stationed in both countries. The former bourgeoisie had ceased to exist and youth had been brought up by Marxist-Leninist teachers.
After the event, I made a limited survey of published comment on the satellite area during the preceding year by foreign tourists, reporters, and diplomats. While many of them noted grumbling and other signs of ferment, not one mentioned the possibility of popular rebellion, or mentioned it only to deny it. On the tenth anniversary of the Hungarian revolt, Robert Murphy, who had been Deputy Undersecretary of State at the time, told an interviewer, Bob Considine: "We were caught completely by surprise. Sure, we had CIA people in there. I know: I was on the State Department's CIA board. But there was no hint from them of what was about to break out so spontaneously, so emotionally." </font> 
Signed:Travb 02:55, 21 April 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: Eugene Lyons

message: Keyword: "Death of the Soviet regime A study in American sovietology by a historian"
*Western Scholarship on the Rise and Fall of the Soviet Regime: The View from 1993
*Richard Pipes's Foreign Strategy: Anti-Soviet or Anti-Russian?  
*Was the Soviet System Reformable?  
*Writing the History of the Russian Revolution after the Fall of Communism  
*The Crisis in Soviet Ethnography  
*Review: Review Article: The Cold War Revisited  
*From the Russian Soul to Post-Communist Nostalgia    
Signed:Travb 03:18, 21 April 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: Future

message: I deleted:
Klaus Mehnert referred to the advanced ideological exhaustion of the Soviet Union. 
His works are not referenced in the book, and it is rather vague whether he actually predicted the collapse.  I messaged the German wikipedia about this, for more information but got no response.Travb 18:26, 21 April 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: I deleted Klaus Mehnert

message: I changed the headings to phases of the Cold War, rather than by decade.  I think that's slightly more illustrative for the reader, as it places the predictions in the political/intellectual context of the time.  It also reduces the number of headings, which is easier on the reader and casual browser.  
*Early Cold War is anything from post-WWII through 1969
*Detente lasts from 1969 to 1979 or thereabouts
*Late Cold War is from 1979 through 1989/1991 depending on when you date the exact end.
Hope this is cool with everyone.—thames 20:32, 21 April 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: very good idea! Rjensen 20:37, 21 April 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: I would say that maybe the Early Cold War should only go to about 1963, and then 1963-1979 should be the next phase.  The late 60s were more like the 70s, in terms of the acceptance of the permanence of the Cold War, and the lessening fear of nuclear war, than they were like the early cold war. john k 20:41, 21 April 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Initially I thought "that idea sucks" but looking at it, it looks wonderful, good job.Travb 20:50, 21 April 2006 (UTC)
thread_title:  Headings by Phase rather than decade 

message: The big question I asked myself in creating this wikipage was if it could happen in the USSR, can it happen here?  What can we learn from the collapse of the USSR and other empires, to foretell or avoid the collapse of our empire? What can history teach us?
Let me share my own (non-scholarly) prediction: that the 20th century was the American century, and the 21st century is the Chinese.  That within 20 years America will collapse too, much in the same way that the USSR did, with different ethnicites in the US tearing the US apart. 
Emmanuel Todd , who predicted the fall of the USSR recently came out with a book stating that the collapse of the US is on the horizon, "After the Empire — The Breakdown of the American Order."  If I get up enough courage to fight the mindless and unimaginative "baying pack" (who voted to  delete this category--and to borrow the term used by User:Anatopism), I eventually want to write a corresponding Predictions of US collapse, using current specialist's and achedemics predictions.  Just like before the collapse of the USSR a small minority of specialist and acedemics have joined Todd in predicting the collapse of the US. 
I know apocolypse books on the collapse of society in general and the collapse of the US in particular are a dime a dozen.  So maybe this is too broad to write a wikiarticle on...In addition I don't know if I want to deal with the "baying pack". 
I have already collected some articles on the subject of the predicted collapse of the US.Travb 04:48, 23 April 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: Collapse of US?

message: The talk page survived, the category did not:
:Category_talk:Organizations_and_people_who_predicted_the_collapse_of_the_USSR
signed:Travb 01:20, 30 April 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: The talk page survived

message: :Category:Astrology? funny.  Someone just added this.Travb 04:00, 16 May 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Did any actual astrologers make a correct prediction? 05:06, 16 May 2006 (UTC)
thread_title: Astrology

message: Maybe we can make this a series of articles, with a template?
*Predictions of the collapse of the United States 
*Predictions of the collapse of Nazi Germany 
etc...Odessaukrain 13:15, 9 March 2007 (UTC)
replies: text: I'm not sure there was much speculation about Nazi Germany in that same manner that there was long-term speculation about the Soviet Union.  There is certainly a school of declinism that emerged in the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s regarding the sustainability of the United States as a superpower (Kissinger's Spenglerian pessimism, and Paul Kennedy's overstretch thesis).  However, declinism wasn't discussed in the language of "collapse", so such a namespace would be inappropriate since it wouldn't reflect the most common usage.  I would focus on getting sources.—Perceval 19:11, 9 March 2007 (UTC)
replies: text: Sure thing :) Thanks for your excellent information, there is a lot of information out there. Odessaukrain 09:49, 10 March 2007 (UTC)
replies: text: Perceval thanks for your comments, I will let Predictions of the collapse of the United States stay removed from the article for now, until I write it, or someone else does, are you interested in the subject? Odessaukrain 12:00, 10 March 2007 (UTC)
replies: text: I am interested to a certain degree, but I have way too much on my plate in terms of real-life research and writing that needs to be done.  I'm about 25 pages into a 30-40 page paper right now, and once I finish that I've got another 20-pager to finish.  So basically, I can't really be of any help for a while.—Perceval 07:42, 11 March 2007 (UTC)
thread_title:  Maybe a series of articles? 

message: Just discovered this article. In mid-1980s I predicted in a couple of "Zines" it would fall in/starting in the height of the next sunspot cycle, which ended up being Nov. of 1989 when the Berlin Wall fell. Will have to put up scans of pages on my related page. One day some WP:RS will report it. (That claim did not make it to this minor story about my other predictions.) and then we can stick in the article :-) Carol Moore CarolMooreDC (talk) 19:04, 26 August 2009 (UTC)
thread_title: My prediction to the month

message: Reading over this article, I feel that some of the text gives the false impression that the cited authors predicted the collapse that actually happened, when in fact many of them predicted a very different kind of collapse. Naturally, it would be POV to state the reasons for the Soviet collapse as if they were established fact (historians are still debating why it happened). So it would be POV to state that author X or Y was wrong about the reasons for the Soviet collapse. But the article should at least mention the possibility that some of the authors who predicted some sort of collapse may have predicted something very different from the actual events that unfolded in 1989-1991.
As it stands, the article strongly implies that, since the USSR collapsed, all the predictions of its collapse must have been true. This is misleading. If I predict that a person will die of cancer in 10 years, and that person dies in a car crash after 10 years, my prediction was, in fact, wrong.  —Preceding unsigned comment added by 24.2.147.201 (talk) 06:03, 17 October 2009 (UTC)
thread_title: "Predicted THE collapse" versus "predicted that the USSR would eventually collapse in some way or other"

message: These sources would interest the editors of this page, and potentially could be included as sources in the article:
* 
*
*
Thanks!  Kiefer.Wolfowitz 21:52, 9 June 2011 (UTC)
thread_title:  Discussion of collapse, associated with the AFL-CIO 

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thread_title: File:Freedom Square Baku 1990.jpg Nominated for speedy Deletion

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Cheers.—cyberbot IITalk to my owner:Online 12:03, 5 May 2016 (UTC)
thread_title:  External links modified 

message: Actually the quote by Sun Myung Moon is misinterpreted. According the quote he predicted the fall of Communism 70 years after 1978 (as he thought 1978 was the middle and height of Communism). That is, in 2048, not in "late 80s".--2A02:2168:83F:88A6:0:0:0:1 (talk) 12:34, 30 September 2016 (UTC)
thread_title:  Sun Myung Moon 

message: Hello fellow Wikipedians,
I have just modified 5 external links on Predictions of the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Please take a moment to review my edit. If you have any questions, or need the bot to ignore the links, or the page altogether, please visit this simple FaQ for additional information. I made the following changes:
*Added archive https://web.archive.org/web/20061018210213/http://www.ca-politicaltransitions.com/Classes/PoliticalIdeas/Socialism/WorkersParadiseIndex.html to http://www.ca-politicaltransitions.com/Classes/PoliticalIdeas/Socialism/WorkersParadiseIndex.html
*Added archive https://web.archive.org/web/20061018210213/http://www.ca-politicaltransitions.com/Classes/PoliticalIdeas/Socialism/WorkersParadiseIndex.html to http://www.ca-politicaltransitions.com/Classes/PoliticalIdeas/Socialism/WorkersParadiseIndex.html
*Added archive https://web.archive.org/web/20060502123923/http://bailey83221.livejournal.com/80804.html to http://bailey83221.livejournal.com/80804.html
*Added archive https://web.archive.org/web/20060531100949/http://bailey83221.livejournal.com/78948.html to http://bailey83221.livejournal.com/78948.html
*Added archive https://web.archive.org/web/20060502123923/http://bailey83221.livejournal.com/80804.html to http://bailey83221.livejournal.com/80804.html
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Cheers.—InternetArchiveBot (Report bug) 21:27, 5 April 2017 (UTC)
thread_title:  External links modified 

message: Hello fellow Wikipedians,
I have just modified one external link on Predictions of the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Please take a moment to review my edit. If you have any questions, or need the bot to ignore the links, or the page altogether, please visit this simple FaQ for additional information. I made the following changes:
*Added archive https://web.archive.org/web/20061018210213/http://www.ca-politicaltransitions.com/Classes/PoliticalIdeas/Socialism/WorkersParadiseIndex.html to http://www.ca-politicaltransitions.com/Classes/PoliticalIdeas/Socialism/WorkersParadiseIndex.html
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Cheers.—InternetArchiveBot (Report bug) 06:57, 25 May 2017 (UTC)
thread_title:  External links modified 

message: Hello fellow Wikipedians,
I have just modified 2 external links on Predictions of the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Please take a moment to review my edit. If you have any questions, or need the bot to ignore the links, or the page altogether, please visit this simple FaQ for additional information. I made the following changes:
*Added archive https://web.archive.org/web/20060522001018/http://www.charles-de-gaulle.org/article.php3?id_article=375 to http://www.charles-de-gaulle.org/article.php3?id_article=375
*Added archive https://web.archive.org/web/20060522001018/http://www.charles-de-gaulle.org/article.php3?id_article=375 to http://www.charles-de-gaulle.org/article.php3?id_article=375
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Cheers.—InternetArchiveBot (Report bug) 20:29, 21 January 2018 (UTC)
thread_title:  External links modified (January 2018) 

message: http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russia-fsu/2020-06-30/how-great-power-falls-apart How great powers fall apart
Moscowdreams (talk) 02:14, 6 July 2020 (UTC)
thread_title: added link to indepth article about almarick

message: :The following is a closed discussion of a requested move. Please do not modify it. Subsequent comments should be made in a new section on the talk page. Editors desiring to contest the closing decision should consider a move review after discussing it on the closer's talk page. No further edits should be made to this discussion. 
The result of the move request was: Not moved/withdrawn   -- Calidum 20:04, 1 October 2021 (UTC)
replies: text: Predictions of the collapse of the Soviet Union →  – Consistency with Dissolution of the Soviet Union. Charles Essie (talk) 22:51, 2 September 2021 (UTC)
replies: text: That's a good point. Request withdrawn. Charles Essie (talk) 17:44, 22 September 2021 (UTC)
thread_title: Requested move 2 September 2021