Talk:Abrupt climate change

message: * Hi. I put a note on the alteration page for this. It needs some considerable work. More detail on the Younger Dryas and triggers of abrupt climate change such as the Thermohaline circulation and Glacial/Interglacial periods. St91 22:49, 21 February 2007 (UTC)
replies: text: Yeah, it's v. much work in progress.  I'm no expert on the details of THC and Younger Dryas.  Any help you can offer would be coolAndrewjlockley (talk) 02:33, 22 February 2009 (UTC)
thread_title:  Triggers 

message: I'll write this down on talk, since I'll probably get interrupted or distracted before I get around to figuring out how to format it for the article. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises (2002)   Dan Wylie-Sears 2 (talk) 06:24, 8 February 2009 (UTC)
replies: text: It's already referenced, mate!Andrewjlockley (talk) 02:33, 22 February 2009 (UTC)
thread_title: Another reference

message: The best current theory for the cause of abrupt climate change is the slowing of the ocean's thermohaline circulation (THC).  It looks to me, as I start to read the above reference,Alley et al. as though that's only considered the cause of DO events, not of all abrupt climate change.  I'll wait for confirmation before editing the article, though. Dan Wylie-Sears 2 (talk) 06:34, 8 February 2009 (UTC)
replies: text: I think the article already makes clear there are a range of causes, but feel free to edit if you think you can improve.Andrewjlockley (talk) 02:33, 22 February 2009 (UTC)
thread_title:  Cause vs causes 

message: pls explain rmvl of alley and lenton papers Andrewjlockley (talk) 12:44, 7 April 2009 (UTC)
replies: text: I'll put them back in if no reason is given for their removal.Andrewjlockley (talk) 23:49, 7 April 2009 (UTC)
thread_title: papers rmvd

message: WMC - please evidence your statement in lead re 'archetypal'.  I've already asked you for a cite once - please don't strip out my tag as if we should take your word for it.  If you don't evidence the stateemnt, I'll cut it. Andrewjlockley (talk) 23:49, 7 April 2009 (UTC)
replies: text: I've done your referencing for you. You might like to note that the theory does not explain all observations. Andrewjlockley (talk) 07:44, 8 April 2009 (UTC)

text: If you want polite conversation, may I put it to you that using an edit comment of "drivel" is a rather poor way to begin? You might even want to apologise, perchance William M. Connolley (talk) 07:46, 8 April 2009 (UTC)
replies: text: I wouldn't use language like that for anyone else, and was only trying to point out the inappropriateness of your edit and the also the personal abuse you so frequently direct at me.  Please behave by the same standards you ask of others. (As it's been noted, I won't need to do it again.)  As regards the edit: the objection I had was that you took it upon yourself to ascribe that event as the 'archetypal' ACC event without a citation, and to offer a cause - also without a citation.  Further, you had the cheek to remove my tag when I asked you to justify it.  If you look on the Younger Dryas page, you'll see that the cause you ascribed does not fully fit the data.  Other editors have noted bond events (or DO) as the archetypal events, so your WP:POV was neither universal nor supported.  Andrewjlockley (talk) 11:31, 8 April 2009 (UTC)
replies: text: PS please don't revert my edits when they were done to support your WP:POV. Andrewjlockley (talk) 11:32, 8 April 2009 (UTC)
replies: text: If you don't like REGW, pls comment here, rather than smashing links (and causing collateral damage whilst you do). Andrewjlockley (talk) 11:39, 8 April 2009 (UTC)
thread_title: citations

message: http://www.agu.org/meetings/chapman/2009/ccall/ might prove a useful (re)source William M. Connolley (talk) 22:44, 17 June 2009 (UTC)
thread_title:  AGU Chapman Conference on Abrupt Climate Change 

message: i've seen the ice cores from the end of the younger dryas on telly but i've not seen them in a paper.  anyone got a good ref for the sudden change in snow?Andrewjlockley (talk) 01:35, 1 July 2009 (UTC)
thread_title: anyone got a ref for ice cores?

message: The definitions, examples, and feedbacks described seem the same on these two articles. If they describe the same phenomenon, they should be merged. -Atmoz (talk) 05:33, 31 October 2009 (UTC)
replies: text: Yes, the two articles describe the same thing and use a lot of the same material.  They should be merged.  Interestingly enough, a Google search for runaway climate change brings up 1,200,000 articles, but only 241,000 for abrupt climate change.  This contrasts with a search of Google Scholar which reveals only 40,800 articles for runaway, but 126,000 for abrupt.  Apparently, runaway is more of a pop media term, whereas abrupt is more commonly used by actual scientists.--CurtisSwain (talk) 21:16, 31 October 2009 (UTC)
replies: text: Oppose - Runaway climate change can be slow, not abrupt.  Abrupt climate change need involve no runaway effects.  It would be like merging articles women and musician - they may overlap, but often don't. Andrewjlockley (talk) 02:45, 1 November 2009 (UTC)

text: CommentConcur There is so much overlap as it stands these articles are nearly repeating each other so my general preference would be for some sort of merge. However Andrew is right they are not the same thing so how a merge would happen is clearly something to discuss. Polargeo (talk) 12:33, 3 November 2009 (UTC)
replies: text: Better to merge into runaway greenhouse effect or something similar.  Abrupt just isn't the right place for it. Andrewjlockley (talk) 20:23, 4 November 2009 (UTC)

text: Concur per Atmoz and Curtis. "runaway" is a pop-culture wording in the way it is used here, the Earth doesn't have such a thing. Either turn runaway fully into a description of Venus (ie. how it happened) and other likely runaway scenarios and merge the rest. Or drop runaway completely. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 12:56, 3 November 2009 (UTC)
replies: text: There are sci papers referencing the term Andrewjlockley (talk) 20:23, 4 November 2009 (UTC)

text: concur per Atmoz and Curtis and Kim William M. Connolley (talk) 09:58, 5 November 2009 (UTC)

text: Oppose - fundamentally different topics.  I agree the duplication should be removed, but I'd suggest that we do it by rewriting Runaway climate change to mainly describe scenarios where positive feedbacks overwhelm negative feedbacks over the long term (a la Venus, or indeed as per James Hansen's recent warnings).  "Abrupt" describes speed: a rapid change from one state to another, but both may be relatively stable; this is not the case with "runaway" climate change, i.e. linear instability. Wantok (toktok) 04:31, 6 January 2010 (UTC)
thread_title:  Merge discussion 

message: After reading and working with two distinguished professors of paleoclimate change and geology, we edited the page to make it more relevant with current ideas and information on abrupt climate change.  —Preceding unsigned comment added by 129.15.131.149 (talk) 19:13, 27 February 2011 (UTC)
thread_title: Major Changes

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thread_title:  External links modified 

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thread_title:  External links modified 

message: It is possible that this graph is also part of his book The Vanishing Face of Gaia. Can someone with book access check? There is also this figure (S14) from Hansen et al. 2016 (Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.), showing experimental multi-meter freshwater forcing, might also be appropriate for the article. prokaryotes (talk) 16:17, 12 October 2017 (UTC)
replies: text: Looking over the parts you've been workiing on, it doesn't really look like an encyclopedia article.  More like a series of condensed abstracts for a bibliography.  I'm not saying you added all that, by the way.  Just saying doing more of the same doesn't really strike me as an improvement.  Just a list of somewhat related factoids.  Are you sure we shouldn't rename this to List of sources that talk about abrupt climate change?  NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 20:01, 12 October 2017 (UTC)
replies: text: While I did several edits in past years those were minor when considering the entirety of the page. Maybe identify more accurately some of the issues, but moving the article seems to be too much. ACC is a well established terminology. I've removed several items today, primarily form the section previously named ACC since 1976 (which I did not contributed to). prokaryotes (talk) 20:15, 12 October 2017 (UTC)
thread_title: Abrupt graphs

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thread_title:  External links modified (January 2018) 

message: Has anyone considered incorporating the Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) data that indicates one cause of Climate Change we see today is our Solar Systems passage through Interstellar gas?
It was launched in 2008 and we've known about this cause/effect since at least 2012.
https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/missions/interstellar-boundary-explorer-ibex/in-depth/
http://www.igpp.ucla.edu/public/mkivelso/refs/PUBLICATIONS/McComas%20IBEX%20sc.pdf
https://phys.org/news/2012-05-interstellar-boundary-explorer-heliosphere-long-theorized.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HtpR8TmZGW4  - Audio is broken
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mTnwjd8CF1c﻿
And for those not scientifically oriented, this video does a pretty good job of describing whats happening and its affects on Earth, the Moon, the Sun, and all other planets in our solar system. Including increased temperatures. (p.s. Video includes supporting data links in the header.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_p1BZYTK-rM
Mars recorded ground temperature 2 1/2 "Martian years" (The change is not "substantial" but does show an upward trend.)
http://cab.inta-csic.es/rems/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/PLT_GT_mean_evol_LS_10_1631_ing.png
(Chart Source)
http://cab.inta-csic.es/rems/en/weather-report-mars-year-33-month-11/
Just curious.
(Philbert) 2605:A000:BFC0:1C:47F:6102:94A6:C043 (talk) 16:57, 21 April 2018 (UTC)
replies: text: You'll need an RS, not a youtube video. See-also Climate_of_Mars#Solar_irradiance, and Q15 of the Talk:Global warming/FAQ William M. Connolley (talk) 17:30, 21 April 2018 (UTC)
thread_title:  IBEX 

message: At the end of 2009, there was a merge discussion in this talk page.  At issue was combining with Runaway climate change or Runaway greenhouse effect.  There was no consensus.  Reading that thread today I noticed something interesting... not a single one of the commenters based their reasoning on reliable sources.  They simply opined.   No problem, I can't do anything more than opine right now myself.  But I thought I'd leave this note for others, or reminder to myself, to study to the RSs to see if a real argument can be made one way or the other based on sources instead of opinion or wikipedians supposed expertise.NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 11:30, 7 August 2018 (UTC)
replies: text: Abrupt is a distinct development manifesting itself in the ice-core records (or other proxies), runaway -while sometimes confused with abrupt development, usually hints at something far more far reaching, leading to something like Snowball Earth or Venus Syndrome. I suggest to keep this page here, and maybe make the distinctions more clear in both articles. prokaryotes (talk) 23:07, 17 August 2018 (UTC)
replies: text: A great example of going full circle. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 23:15, 17 August 2018 (UTC)
thread_title:  MERGE  

message: This edit seems just right at this place (looking at the rest of the page), it is a general conclusion that this feedback, possibly abrupt (as NASA article points out), is not yet captured by the models. If you  feel it belongs elsewhere please move it there, instead of just erasing it. prokaryotes (talk) 23:10, 17 August 2018 (UTC)
replies: text: There are a bunch of potentially abrupt feedbacks, and you should know this if you actually read the Steffen houthouse paper you added in various places.  Why should this one be featured in the section titled "general" and not the others? NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 23:17, 17 August 2018 (UTC)
replies: text:  Okay, you are correct it could be more comprehensive, but since there are a few examples in the precursor section already, would you agree to add it there? I think the main take away from the new NASA study is that the models do not account for it. Yet, climate modelling is usually what guides current policy decisions, and public discourse. Thus, it seems significant enough to point this out, if it is connected to abrupt changes. prokaryotes (talk) 23:24, 17 August 2018 (UTC)

text:  And I am fine with pointing this out at the CCF article too. prokaryotes (talk) 23:25, 17 August 2018 (UTC)
replies: text:  Added a new sub-section on models, after thinking some more, this appears to be the better spot to elaborate on this situation. prokaryotes (talk) 23:56, 17 August 2018 (UTC)
thread_title: Thermokarst

message: In this edit I removed "rapid ocean acidification" form the list of effects.   Sure there's correlation in the RS between PETM and acidification.  Sure its a hugely important biogeochemical issue.   Sure it has a direct impacts on three components of the climate system(hyrdo-, litho-, and bio- spheres).  But this source does not say that abrupt climate change caused the acidification.    Interestingly, other text and sources in this article suggest a feedback between deglaciation and volcanism.   I suppose writ large such a dynamic could pump enough stuff into the air to acidify the oceans, but they're still trying to constraing deglaciation and volcanism in the first place.   I suppose too that a large ocean acidification event could have sufficiently large impacts on the climate systems components that if we only knew enough we might be able to include ocean acidification as an element in the feedback loops that drive still more climate change.   But as it stands, I'm unaware of RSs that say acidification is either a contributing element in climate forcing or a result of climate change.  If you do know of such sources, educate me please! NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 14:24, 9 March 2019 (UTC)
thread_title:  ocean acidification 

message: From IPCC
* 2000 IPCC TAR WG1 Glossary - There is no entry for "abrupt climate change".  Instead, there is an entry for Rapid Climate change
:::Rapid climate change - The non-linearity of the climate system may lead to rapid climate change, sometimes called abrupt events or even surprises. Some such abrupt events may be imaginable, such as a dramatic reorganisation of the thermohaline circulation, rapid deglaciation, or massive melting of permafrost leading to fast changes in the carbon cycle. Others may be truly unexpected, as a consequence of a strong, rapidly changing, forcing of a non-linear system.
* 2007 IPCC AR4 WG1 Glossary
:::Abrupt climate change - The nonlinearity of the climate system may lead to abrupt climate change, sometimes called rapid climate change, abrupt events or even surprises. The term abrupt often refers to time scales faster than the typical time scale of the responsible forcing. However, not all abrupt climate changes need be externally forced. Some possible abrupt events that have been proposed include a dramatic reorganisation of the thermohaline circulation, rapid deglaciation and massive melting of permafrost or increases in soil respiration leading to fast changes in the carbon cycle. Others may be truly unexpected, resulting from a strong, rapidly changing forcing of a nonlinear system. 
* 2014 IPCC WG1 AR5 Glossary
:::Abrupt climate change - A large-scale change in the climate system that takes place over a few decades or less, persists (or is anticipated to persist) for at least a few decades and causes substantial disruptions in human and natural systems.
NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 12:44, 10 March 2019 (UTC
* 2008 NCA SSCP Scientific Assessment
::: An abrupt climate change occurs when the climate system crosses a threshold, which triggers a transition  into  a  new  state  that  may  have  large  and  widespread  consequences
* 2017 NCA Glossary
::: Abrupt climate change - Change in the climate system on a timescale shorter than the timescale of the responsible forcing. In the case of anthropogenic forcing over the past century, abrupt change occurs over decades or less. Abrupt change need not be externally forced. (CSSR, Ch. 15)
: I've added the two NCA definitions. I think that the 2017 NCA definition might be the most useful, in the sense that they make a distinction between abrupt climate change in general and the anthropogenic case. All of our sources are primarily focussed on global warming, and not 'general' Earth science sources. If we choose one of those definitions for our article, we should choose one as it is more broadly used in climate science I think. Femke Nijsse (talk) 14:45, 10 March 2019 (UTC)
thread_title:  Definitions 

message: In the General section is this sentence: "It has been postulated that teleconnections, oceanic and atmospheric processes, on different timescales, connect both hemispheres during abrupt climate change."
This seems a tad bit clumsy. I'm not even sure what that means. Might I suggest "It has been postulated that teleconnections -- oceanic and atmospheric processes on different timescales -- connect both hemispheres during abrupt climate change"?
Frunobulax (talk) 00:48, 1 March 2021 (UTC)
thread_title:  Grammar cleansing 

message: I've removed the further reading list as I don't think that this long list is adding value here:
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* (historical survey) EMsmile (talk) 08:28, 14 September 2023 (UTC)
thread_title:  Removed further reading list