Talk:Scientific prediction

message: I am quite interested in collaborating as well. I am trying to understand better how we as scientists use and abuse the terms "prediction" and "forecast". There is an interesting book by Robert Goodell Brown, called Smoothing, Forecasting and Prediction of Discrete Time Series (2004, ISBN 0486495922). I haven't gotten a hold of it yet but it may provide some interesting insights. 
For example, in synoptic meteorology, a weather forecast differs from the preciction of a weather event. In volcanology, forecasting volcanic eruption based on monitoring data, differs from a prediction of possible future eruptions based on stochastic probability. In medicine, there are similar problems but the distinction is often even more fuzzy. 
All of these disciplines work with both approaches: 
* time series data to catch an oncoming event before it hits (volcanic eruption, hurricane, and a common cold) based on changing observational time series data and "epidemiological" knowledge of how such events typically develop; 
* probabilities of re-occurrence independent (e.g., "every August", "every 200 to 250 years", "everytime air masses invert, which is twice a month in summer", ...). 
Any thoughts?
--Carboxen 01:02, 23 July 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Indeed, within our peer group we scientists become comfortable with "prediction" and "forecast" as well as "model" as colloquial expressions for extra- and interpolation.  Outside of the scientific community however, this is and can be the source of much confusion.  Also, there is a push within the natural sciences for the incorporation (revival?) of the old discipline of Bayesian statistics as an augmentation of the more common frequency statistics.  This article should accurately reflect these items, however a great deal of care should be taken if such a section is written by a non-scientist because colloquialisms within a peer group can often be seen by those outside of that group as intentionally misleading.  However, this is not the case with interpolation and extrapolation.  This section should be even handed and NPOV. Cheers, Astrobayes 19:31, 22 August 2006 (UTC)
thread_title:  "prediction" vs "forecast" 

message: Tho unfortunately not planning to join in, i suggest that 
*subsidiary topics be placed elsewhere.
*explaining the connection between statistic prediction and true vs false is where non-scientists have the most difficulty (at least, I don't think I have every manged to teach it properly in a class=article or two)
*perhaps instead of or in addition to true/false one can think of 2 or more alternative predictions, one & only one of which must be true --eg not whether global warming will occur but what the earth temperature will be.
*what is needed most is non-controversal examples, both actual and thought-experiments. 
* and remember the logical problem of "other things being equal".
* &, as a biologist, don't forget about the need to predict the past, i.e, to predict what future discoveries about the past will show, e.g. we shall find no dragon fossils as approximately equal to there have never been dragons. 
good luck.
 DGG 05:05, 12 October 2006 (UTC)
thread_title:  ==statistics, etc.==