Talk:2005 Atlantic hurricane season/November

message: =====AoI:10W4A: Lesser Ant.=====
8 AM Discussion:
 CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 47W S OF 19N MOVING
 W 10-15 KT. A WELL-DEFINED AND ALMOST CIRCULAR LOW-LEVEL
 CIRCULATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. CONVECTION REMAINS
 LIMITED AND DISPLACED WEST WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
 STRONG CONVECTION IN A SMALL AREA W OF THE WAVE FROM 12N-16N
 BETWEEN 45W-51W. 
11:30 AM TWO:
 AN AREA OF POORLY ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY ABOUT 650 MILES EAST OF
 THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL
 WAVE. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM COULD OCCUR OVER THE
 NEXT DAY OR SO. 
And the recon plan for tomorrow:
 OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL LOW LEVEL INVEST NEAR
 15N AND 61W FOR 31/1800Z. 
Could we see an invest at NRL soon?  -- RattleMan 14:49, 29 October 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: Brother Gamma may be preparing to pledge the Greek Letter Society.--Louis E./le@put.com/12.144.5.2 00:13, 30 October 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: I don't think I can take another tropical Frat boy here :D. They're causing too much heartburn. -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde - archive 04:27, 30 October 2005 (UTC)

text: East of the Lesser Antilles? Could become Gamma, but the November preferred tracks say storms move northward - so he'd be gone fishin' if he forms (whatever fish he can find up there)... CrazyC83 15:29, 30 October 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: 11:30 AM Tropical Weather Outlook makes it sound like this one won't be joining the Greek Letter Society after all.(Let's hope they've switched to "Spin the Fishie" as their hazing ritual...the previous ones have been dangerous).--Louis E./le@put.com/12.144.5.2 17:02, 30 October 2005 (UTC)
replies: text:  I notice that the eastern Carribean remains warm , and that this tropical wave is now beyond that over the warmest waters and but is heading towards the now cooler waters of the western Carribean and the Gulf of Mexico.  However, I don't see us as "out of the woods" yet:  This invest could still develop if the upper level winds shear dies down, and I expect at least one November storm in any case.  As for going fishing:  By that logic Beta should not have headed into Nicaragua.  As a practical matter, each storm and even each season has its own personality, and so the next storm will go where it chooses to go. --EMS | Talk 16:58, 31 October 2005 (UTC)
thread_title: 92L.INVEST

message: 8 AM Discussion:
 CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 47W S OF 19N MOVING
 W 10-15 KT. A WELL-DEFINED AND ALMOST CIRCULAR LOW-LEVEL
 CIRCULATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. CONVECTION REMAINS
 LIMITED AND DISPLACED WEST WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
 STRONG CONVECTION IN A SMALL AREA W OF THE WAVE FROM 12N-16N
 BETWEEN 45W-51W. 
11:30 AM TWO:
 AN AREA OF POORLY ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY ABOUT 650 MILES EAST OF
 THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL
 WAVE. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM COULD OCCUR OVER THE
 NEXT DAY OR SO. 
And the recon plan for tomorrow:
 OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL LOW LEVEL INVEST NEAR
 15N AND 61W FOR 31/1800Z. 
Could we see an invest at NRL soon?  -- RattleMan 14:49, 29 October 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: Brother Gamma may be preparing to pledge the Greek Letter Society.--Louis E./le@put.com/12.144.5.2 00:13, 30 October 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: I don't think I can take another tropical Frat boy here :D. They're causing too much heartburn. -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde - archive 04:27, 30 October 2005 (UTC)
thread_title: AoI:10W4A: Lesser Ant.

message: And it's now an invest. -- RattleMan 00:59, 30 October 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: East of the Lesser Antilles? Could become Gamma, but the November preferred tracks say storms move northward - so he'd be gone fishin' if he forms (whatever fish he can find up there)... CrazyC83 15:29, 30 October 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: 11:30 AM Tropical Weather Outlook makes it sound like this one won't be joining the Greek Letter Society after all.(Let's hope they've switched to "Spin the Fishie" as their hazing ritual...the previous ones have been dangerous).--Louis E./le@put.com/12.144.5.2 17:02, 30 October 2005 (UTC)
replies: text:  I notice that the eastern Carribean remains warm , and that this tropical wave is now beyond that over the warmest waters and but is heading towards the now cooler waters of the western Carribean and the Gulf of Mexico.  However, I don't see us as "out of the woods" yet:  This invest could still develop if the upper level winds shear dies down, and I expect at least one November storm in any case.  As for going fishing:  By that logic Beta should not have headed into Nicaragua.  As a practical matter, each storm and even each season has its own personality, and so the next storm will go where it chooses to go. --EMS | Talk 16:58, 31 October 2005 (UTC)
thread_title: 92L.INVEST

message: The models have been very consistent in keeping relatively low pressures, and favorable conditions, over the Caribbean for a number of days. A few hint towards the area where Beta formed, but with nothing conclusive. Certainly this is the area to watch for the next week... but for now, check the models once or twice a day, and lets try to remember that we all had hobbies before the hurricane season of 2005 did away with 'em. --The Great Zo 15:10, 2 November 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: Right now, it's all clear. A rare break indeed - a sign that the season is winding down. CrazyC83 21:17, 2 November 2005 (UTC)

text: It has been awhile since I have a TWO like that, nice to finally see it.  --Holderca1 23:25, 2 November 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: There's an interesting spot of convection down near Beta territory. Not much circulation to it though and no sign pressures are falling. The whole world seems to be quieting down. Typhoon Kai-tak, the most recent tropical cyclone anywhere in the world just moved into Vietnam this morning and is dissipating. Otherwise, all is quiet on the Western Front (and the eastern, and southern fronts too :D). The world's largest bank of dry air has lodged itself over the Gulf of Mexico. It's been there since not long after Wilma formed. Season appears over for the obliterated Gulf coast. The eastern Atlantic, largely inactive for most of the season, appears done (Saharan Air appears there to stay). Waters have gotten cold north of Bermuda, they're done. If we get a Gamma, it will most likely be in the Caribean or somewhere between 10N to 25N and 55W to 85W. -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde - archive 00:42, 3 November 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: Anywhere in the tropical Atlantic and it is likely a fish-spinner. The Gulf of Mexico is generally too unstable in November for development. CrazyC83 07:02, 3 November 2005 (UTC)

text: Mitch was active in the Caribbean seven years ago this week. It's not too late for another major hurricane. Good kitty 18:06, 3 November 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: But the latest major hurricane ever was Lenny in 1999 just 10 days after today. We're reaching the tail end of the potential for dangerous hurricanes. On an unrelated note, the northwestern Caribbean was mentioned by the NHC in the most recent outlook. -- 69.86.16.61 23:50, 3 November 2005 (UTC)
thread_title:  Anything else? 

message: Some convection has fired and persisted for most of the day today (Sunday) in the Gulf of Mexico. NHC calls it the "STRONGEST OF ALL THE WAVES IN THE ATLC BASIN TONIGHT". There's lots of shear in the area...but since nothing major in the Atlantic basin has been happening for a while now, I thought I'd note this. -- RattleMan 06:12, 7 November 2005 (UTC)
thread_title: AoI:11W1B: GoM

message: There's this interesting spot of convection north of Puerto Rico, but the NHC doesn't seem too concerned about it. -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde - archive 14:24, 10 November 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: What direction is that blob moving? CrazyC83 16:30, 10 November 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: There's also some other interesting convection in the southwestern Caribbean, down by where Beta formed.  -- John, 21:13, 10 November 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: This disturbance appears to be dissipating, and no wonder: it just went through a bank of 60 knot wind shear! -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde - archive 04:16, 11 November 2005 (UTC)
thread_title: AoI:11W2A: Tropical Atlantic

message: It's now an Invest [] tdwuhs
:Hmmm...Could this develop? In November? But then again, it's the 2005 season... -- RattleMan 20:20, 12 November 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: Every season since 1997 except 2000 and 2002 had November activity. It's more likely than not that we'll see another storm or two.  -- 69.86.16.61 20:54, 12 November 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: 2003 didn't have November activity either. Perhaps you were looking at Nicholas, who just managed to crawl into November 1 as an extratropical depression. That doesn't count! Anyway, historical records mean little. This season above all others has proved that. Remember, 1995, with all its activity, was quiet all November. This invest, by the way, seems to have lost most of its shower activity. Their's no rain in this thing! Also, 20 and 30 knot shear looms just north of it. November is not only the newest, but least active month of the season. I believe the most storms to form in November is 2 or 3. --  Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde - archive 02:51, 13 November 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: Can't see this developing. All eyes should be on 94L...then again it is the 2005 season, and storms have fooled us on every move... CrazyC83 04:27, 13 November 2005 (UTC)

text: Well, okay, 2003 didn't have November activity, but I think December activity can count as November activity. -- 69.86.16.61 14:57, 13 November 2005 (UTC)
thread_title: 93L.INVEST

message: Meanwhile, now that 93L is out, there's another area to the East of the Windward Islands that looks good.  TWD says "TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 300 NM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IN SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WESTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT." -- RattleMan 20:10, 12 November 2005 (UTC)
thread_title: AoI:11W2C: Windward Islands

message: A new invest has JUST popped up associated with this AoI. Wow, two invests in one night. -- RattleMan 02:01, 13 November 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: A little late in the season for tropical waves ain't it? NHC says the upper atmosphere isn't very kind right now over this system. It is indeed currently over an area with 30 knot shear. That said, data from CIMSS says that wind shear has been decreasing by as much as 20 knots in the waters ahead of the wave. . And it also looks pretty impressive: . Looks can be decieving though... -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde - archive 02:41, 13 November 2005 (UTC)

text: Here's one that should develop. Not likely into a monster, but at least into TD27 and possibly Tropical Storm Gamma. Now don't rush into making articles... CrazyC83 04:26, 13 November 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: Ah, Grasshopper, the tropics are fickle. Nothing is anywhere close to certain. I've seen waves spoken more highly of than this one and end up amounting to nothing. -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde - archive 21:28, 13 November 2005 (UTC)

text: Good catch, TD27 might be up by 10 Eastern. NSLE (讨论) \<extra> 01:43, 14 November 2005 (UTC)

text: The West Pacific has a TD active right now that would tie things up again, but, if this becomes Gamma, the Atlantic will stay in front. It really will be a huge event if the Atlantic outstrips the West Pacific this year. -- 69.86.16.61 02:53, 14 November 2005 (UTC)
thread_title: 94L.INVEST

message: TD27 has regenerated, and become Gamma. --EMS | Talk 21:30, 18 November 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: No, the 40 and 45 in the advisories are in MPH.  ACE uses KT (knots). Ajm81 06:15, 19 November 2005 (UTC)

text: I'm pretty sure TD time doesn't count, but it seems the 35-kt TS advisory wasn't in the table. --AySz88^-^ 16:21, 20 November 2005 (UTC)
replies: text:  Additions to the ACE are only made for TS status and above (35+ knots).  That is why the table starts with advisory 12, BTW:  Before then this had only been a TD. --EMS | Talk 04:57, 21 November 2005 (UTC)
thread_title: ACE calcs

message: We have a tropical miscreant in Beta territory again. -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde - archive 23:27, 15 November 2005 (UTC)
thread_title: AoI: Southwestern Caribbean

message: A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 900 MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.  ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
Did anyone see this? After two weeks of nothing, numerous activity is bubbling!!tdwuhs
:Yup, I've noticed it for a while but haven't said anything. Could be interesting. I fixed the title, it used to say "Northwest Leeward Islands" ;). You also put Aol (AO-el) instead of AoI (AO-eye), so I fixed that too. (on a sidenote, I don't think I'm going to be numbering these AoI anymore, they look a bit odd like that...for anyone who didn't know the AoI format, it was "AoI:(month #)W(week #)(AoI # by letter): (description)". If this AoI was numbered, it would have been "AoI:11W3B: Leeward Islands", but I'm getting off topic now.) -- RattleMan 02:18, 18 November 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: This thing just looks like your every-day extratropical low. This thing doesn't impress me much. -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde - archive 15:57, 18 November 2005 (UTC)

text: Southward? You mean northward into the open Atlantic. CrazyC83 23:05, 18 November 2005 (UTC)
thread_title: AoI: NE Leeward Islands

message: I think an area more north-east than the system mentioned in the TWO a few days ago (and in the above AoI) was has now been designated as 95L. -- RattleMan 14:16, 20 November 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: Interesting models... . It could become Tropical if it follows that path. Winds are already at 35 mph. Hurricanehink 14:52, 20 November 2005 (UTC)
replies: text:  winds of 35 mph is enough to make it a depression, right? --Revolución (talk) 19:17, 20 November 2005 (UTC)

text:  Strangely, it seems to be already warm-core (or at least will become warm-core): http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/compare/05112000/M14.html , http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/consensus/fcst/archive/05112000/14.html#diag1 . --AySz88^-^ 15:37, 20 November 2005 (UTC)

text: Wow, this season really wants to drag on...Tropical Storm Delta is probably not far away...although I can't see it becoming much more than that... CrazyC83 06:38, 21 November 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: It needs a warm core first. That's what Vince needed. The winds aren't a problem. It's still non tropical. Look at the color enhanced infrared from CIMSS: . The brighter the red, the warmer and stronger the convection is. Compare that dim system to the blinding image of Wilma at peak intensity. . Look actually like a subtropical storm but I can't be sure because I don't know where the center is. Well organized though, just not tropical. -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde - archive 22:42, 21 November 2005 (UTC)
replies: text:  FSU already says it's already warm-core.  I can't think of any reason why it's not at least subtropical.  --AySz88^-^ 22:59, 21 November 2005 (UTC)

text:  Why are we comparing a suspected Tropical Storm with the 882 mb image of the most intense hurricane in Atlantic basin history?  Obviously Wilma's going to win that comparison.  I'd rather see a comparison with a relatively weak TS to see the difference. PK9 00:35, 22 November 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: Here you go then. Vince is barely at hurricane strength on the right, 95L is at 40 knots (!) on the left.  NSLE (讨论+extra) 00:47, 22 November 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: Those images only compare organization, which is difficult to compare as far as strength is concerned - this Invest looks more organized than Arlene at peak intensity, yet Arlene was tropical and this, apparently, is not. Only the warmth of the core can give an accurate demonstration of why this storm system is not yet considered tropical or at least subtropical. -- Cuivienen 02:28, 22 November 2005 (UTC)

text: Agreed, I'd expect to see Tropical Storm Delta at the next advisory, if it isn't already such...although, unlike with Vince, there shouldn't be a whole lot of hesitation. CrazyC83 17:27, 22 November 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: Note the term 'gradually'. That means it's a gradual process. I don't know where the 5:30 TWO is. It's late, they're usually early! -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde - archive 22:39, 22 November 2005 (UTC)

text: It looks just like Vince now. It even has an eye. Good kitty 23:47, 22 November 2005 (UTC)

text: Because they're the experts, were not. They have access to more data than we do. They know what it all means, we don't. To be honest, the infrared image doesn't look all that impressive. . See that little spot of convection on the far right? That's 95. Notice the lack of orange or red. Compare 95  to weak storm Lee . See how Lee has more green and some red? That tells me that Lee was more tropical and better organized. -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde - archive 05:27, 23 November 2005 (UTC)

text: They've fixed it to say 'non-tropical' now. -- Cuivienen 15:28, 23 November 2005 (UTC)
thread_title: 95L.INVEST

message: Adv. 	Date  	Time     	Maximum Sustained Winds (kt)	ACE (104 kt2)
1    	23 Nov	4 pm EST 	50                          	0.250
2    	 	10 pm EST	50                          	0.250
3    	24 Nov	4 am EST 	55                          	0.3025
4    	 	10 am EST	60                          	0.360
5    	 	4 pm EST 	60                          	0.360
6    	 	10 pm EST	60                          	0.360
7    	25 Nov	4 am EST 	55                          	0.3025
8    	 	10 am EST	55                          	0.3025
9    	 	4 pm EST 	50                          	0.2500
10   	 	10 pm EST	50                          	0.2500
11   	26 Nov	4 am EST 	45                          	0.2025
12   	 	10 am EST	35                          	0.1225
13   	 	4 pm EST 	35                          	0.1225
14   	 	10 pm EST	35                          	0.1225
15   	27 Nov	4 am EST 	35                          	0.1225
16   	 	10 am EST	45                          	0.2025
17   	 	4 pm EST 	60                          	0.360
18   	 	10 pm EST	55                          	0.3025
19   	28 Nov	4 am EST 	55                          	0.3025
20   	 	10 am EST	55                          	0.3025
Total	 	    	                       	5.15
Note that the advisory links will not work until the advisory is issued.  Please update the ACE section of the article after updating these calculations. --EMS 20:??, 23 November 2005 (UTC)
:Delta is in the GMT/UTC timezone now, isn't it? Shouldn't all times then be given solely in UTC? - Cuivienen 16:24, 27 November 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: Times are based on the NHC public advisories.  If they are still using AST then we should too. Ajm81 03:08, 28 November 2005 (UTC)

text: Delta shouldn't be added until it has dissipated. That way, it won't be necessary to keep updating the total ACE value. - Cuivienen 00:58, 28 November 2005 (UTC)

text: (reply to Freiberg) Read the sentence again: "The total for the season up to and including Tropical Storm Gamma is 219.394".  Saying, "...Tropical Storm Delta" would give you a false statement, since 219.394 doesn't include Delta. --AySz88^-^ 00:59, 28 November 2005 (UTC)

text: I'm one of them who keeps reverting it to Gamma, as as stated above, it's Gamma at 219.394, with Delta it would be over 223. NSLE (讨论+extra) 01:02, 28 November 2005 (UTC)

text: Yes.  The advisory says the Delta is "becoming extratropical", not that it outright is.  However, this is the end of Delta as a tropical cyclone, and the article can now be updated to include the final ACE for Delta in the season aggregate. --EMS | Talk 15:51, 28 November 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: I see it saying "BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL" where does it say "becoming"? crandles 16:52, 28 November 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: Sorry I see that on the discussion now, I was looking at the 11AM advisory. crandles 16:54, 28 November 2005 (UTC)
thread_title:  Delta's ACE Calcs 

message: ...should receive a litle more coverage. Links:
*http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L28289044.htm
*http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L29766050.htm
*http://www.mg.co.za/articlePage.aspx?articleid=258014&area=/breaking_news/breaking_news__africa/
Kosebamse 13:12, 29 November 2005 (UTC)
thread_title: Delta's effects in the Canaries