Talk:Weather forecasting

message: Hello :) Is there any page containing areal statistics of temperature and weather from past years and months?
I'd like to compare the usual weathers around the world --Gxojo 17:43, 5 Mar 2005 (UTC)
thread_title:  Statistics/history 

message: Hello. Good stuff. I think a subject as important as this merits further expansion of this article. For example, sections could be added under the following headings:
* Nowcasting and very short range forecasting (0-6hrs)
The dominance of human interpretation of observational data, or extrapolation of observations into the future. How NWP has relatively low skill in this time range due to lack of resolution in model and data assimilation system. Future improvements possible due to mesoscale data assimilation. The idea that at short range you can expect to predict smaller scale features with skill whereas at long range you don't expect to be able to do so.
* Short range forecasts (up to 3 days)
The increasing dominance of NWP in forecasts. The concept that at increasing range you can only expect to predict larger scale features with skill and must give statistical forecasts of smaller features (e.g. forecasting "scattered showers" rather than giving forecasts of individual shower clouds). 
* Medium range forecating (3 to 10 days)
The benefit of using ensemble forecasts in this timeframe.  
* Long range forecasting (beyond 10 days)
* Seasonal forecasting
* Forecasting system
 
Also, a more rigorous description of the forecasting system might be useful.
*Observations + Data assimilation -> Analysis
*Forecast made from analysis using principle of determinism whereby the future state of the system can be predicted by knowledge of the current state of said system.
ALTERNATIVE WEATHER FORECASTING
It would be instructive for someone to add a discussion of Irving P. Krick and Harry Geise and their attemtps at long-range weather forecasting using non-standard techniques.  I believe that Krick was Dwight Eisenhower's lead forecaster for the Normandy invasion, and Giese was a popular and legendary forecaster in the San Francisco Bay Area and KCRA TV in Sacramento for many years.  The weather bureau hated him but he was much more accurate than they.
 
When discussing alternative forecasting it might be smart to decrease the size of the section discussing the process that pilots go through to get a diagram for the weather. It goes off on a tangent a little too much with respect to the other topics. Although an interesting topic, it diverges from the main idea that is discussed with the different types of weather forecasting. 
108.41.137.18 (talk) 16:01, 9 June 2020 (UTC)
thread_title: Expansion

message: OK, I've done a bit of restructuring. I hope nobody minds that I have changed it quite a bit. I tried to keep most of the original content in there, but added lots and re-arranged things. I think it is more up to date now about what actually goes on to produce a weather forecast these days. There's still plenty more that can be added. The history section in particular is a bit sketchy.geodynamo 20:19, 24 Jun 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: Yeah, that's better. I was just trying to structure it a little better. Nice job! :) Dysprosia 08:43, 30 Jul 2003 (UTC)
thread_title:  Restructuring 

message: I'm having a hard time understanding what the difference is between this article and Meteorology, which appears to be about the same subject.  Is there some reason these are two separate articles with a fair amount of duplicated content?  If so, what is it?  If not, should these articles be merged? -- Foogod 21:22, 30 December 2005 (UTC)
replies: text: I disagree that there is more than a superficial amount of duplicated content between the two articles, there is no more that is need to briefly explain forecasting in the meteorology entry. Forecasting is a subtopic of meteorology. Forecasting is only concerned with what will happen in the future; Meteorology is concerned with any measurable aspect of the weather, past, present or future. However, I do agree that the whole weather topic leaves something to be desired. I have monkeyed around with it in the past, but it still doesn't work right. It needs a proper review I think. nick 20:32, 6 January 2006 (UTC)

text: Weather forecasting is a method to understand the state of the earth’s atmosphere, mainly concerning its effects upon life and human activities. It consists of short-term (minutes to days) variations in the atmosphere. Weather forecasting can mainly be done with the help of parameters such as temperature, humidity, precipitation, cloudiness, visibility, and wind.
Meteorology is the scientific study of the earth’s atmosphere, including both land and oceans. It comprises of fundamental topics such as the composition, structure, and motion of the atmosphere. This study helps to understand and predict atmospheric activities. The significant difference between the two is that weather forecasting predicts the state of the earth’s atmosphere, and meteorology is the scientific and in-depth study of that state.  — Preceding unsigned comment added by Williamliamjones (talk • contribs) 11:27, 12 January 2022 (UTC)
thread_title:  [[Weather forecasting]] vs. [[Meteorology]]? 

message: in the first paragraph it isn said that humans have been predicting weathr informally for ob - a rather strange expression
Electrolaser89 (talk) 12:29, 17 January 2010 (UTC)
thread_title:  strange expression 

message: Surely there have been methodologically valid studies assessing the accuracy of weather forecasts promulgated by government agencies. If weather forecasting is a science, what are the accepted standards for judging whether a prediction model is successful, and do practitioners today achieve that standard? For any given timeframe (e.g. a three-day forecast), how much more accurate is the science of weather forecasting in 2006 than it was in 1956, for example? A Google search turned up this article, but surely there are other sources available that assess the predictions of weather forecasters on a scientific basis? --Mathew5000 22:16, 4 June 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: Weather forecasts are up to a week, perhaps 2 at a pinch. Seasonal forecasts are different. Text-based forecasts are near impossible to validate meaningfully. Model forecasts fields can be objectively shown to have improved William M. Connolley 21:34, 22 August 2007 (UTC)
replies: text: Okay, so forecasts are up to a week, but that doesn't say anything about their accuracy. In the opening part of the article, it says that the farther the predicted time is in the future, the less accurate they get. So does the accuracy for a forecast for 2 weeks from today go towards zero? JohnnieDanger (talk) 19:58, 11 December 2009 (UTC)
thread_title:  How accurate is weather forecasting? 

message: All you need to do is add a reference section with relevent references, and this article would be B.  Thegreatdr 11:52, 24 October 2006 (UTC)
replies: text: That fell on deaf ears.  I've started adding references.  Thegreatdr 19:57, 16 February 2007 (UTC)
replies: text: This article has become quite good over the last few months, but inline sourcing needs to be added per wikipedia's guide of style.  Once this occurs thoroughly within the article, it can be submitted for consideration as a good article.  Thegreatdr 20:24, 16 February 2007 (UTC)
replies: text: Still needs more inline references, preferrably one per paragraph, if we're going to submit this article for GA.  Thegreatdr 01:12, 16 April 2007 (UTC)

text: We're nearly there.  A couple links and some slight expansion of the marine portion and reworking of the lead, and the article will be submitted for GAC.  Thegreatdr (talk) 15:56, 26 May 2008 (UTC)
thread_title:  Closing in on GA class/inline references still needed 

message: look at the first line of the article Arttic00 17:42, 7 November 2007 (UTC)
thread_title: someone has insert a incorrect remark

message: I really feel that it is not necessary to have such a list of commercial organisation which provide weather forecasts. Wikipedia is not an internet directory. Plus wikipedia is not the place for advertising. Also all the external links should be in the external links section so the article is consistent with other articles.--Benjaminevans82 (talk) 00:33, 8 December 2007 (UTC)
replies: text: We have far too many external links.  They will need to be trimmed back in such a way as to not violate NPOV.  This article will not make GA if all these links remain.  Thegreatdr (talk) 13:28, 18 January 2008 (UTC)
replies: text: I removed another batch of external links, this time including extraneous NOAA links.  Thegreatdr (talk) 15:55, 26 May 2008 (UTC)
thread_title: Removal of excessive links

message: The Template:Cquote in the middle of the history section seems out of place. I would suggest removing it. Thoughts? Farside6 (talk) 04:55, 25 June 2008 (UTC)
replies: text: I removed it.  At some point, it must have made sense for that quote to be there.  After all the edits, it no longer does.  Thegreatdr (talk) 12:09, 25 June 2008 (UTC)
thread_title:  Pull-quite in "History" 

message: A new article Weather forecasting (marine) should be made that describes stand-alone weather forecast devices for use at sea (eg using radiofax, rtty, navtex). Also mention the Elector SDR Marine weather receiver which is a low-cost, open-source receiver (might be useful for houseboats of people in developing world)
Also, does maritime weather forecasts (thus forecast for eg certain areas in the middle of the ocean) exist trough the new internet-based media (RSS, podcasts, weather.com, ...). Could be used if satellite dish/access is present on boat  —Preceding unsigned comment added by 81.246.148.68 (talk) 14:23, 22 March 2009 (UTC)
thread_title: Weather forecasting (marine)

message: "Radio weather forecasts date to 1923, when E. B. Rideout began broadcasting in Boston. Televised weathercasts were first aired on the Weather Bureau Dumont Network in 1947 by James M. 'Jimmie' Fidler."
Worth a mention? Better at Radio broadcasting/History of television? Mapsax (talk) 20:01, 3 March 2010 (UTC)
thread_title:  Earliest weather forecasts over media 

message: What level of accuracy at any given time horizon can currently be achieved, using what techniques? -- Beland (talk) 02:51, 24 October 2010 (UTC)
replies: text: To some degree, this has been addressed in the overhaul of the numerical weather prediction section.  Thegreatdr (talk) 18:21, 2 January 2011 (UTC)
thread_title:  Accuracy 

message: This is illuminating but stops short of explaining when and how each piece of information was developed. For example, in the Three Men in a Boat, the Englishman related reading the paper with "fronts" moving across Europe. This is fairly sophisticated IMO. And no, no history there either. Student7 (talk) 01:48, 6 October 2011 (UTC)
thread_title: History

message: The  weather  forecasting  is  the  application of  science  and  technolgy  — Preceding unsigned comment added by 216.109.12.254 (talk) 15:15, 18 November 2011 (UTC)
thread_title:  Weather   Forecasting 

message: I apologize if I'm not doing this correctly (I'm not a regular contributor and I'm not acquainted with coding and etiquette) but the first section of the weather forecasting page is jacked up. Looks like someone cut and pasted indiscriminately in a few places. Nonsense words, a sentence starting in the middle, etc. If someone who works this page regularly could take a look at it and see what happened, that would be great.
Mattvsmith (talk) 09:05, 27 March 2013 (UTC)
thread_title:  Messed up intro section 

message: but not too bold I hope. I have hacked out of the article completely a list of types of models. These are very generic and not specific to weather forecasting and were presented without any context. I'm happy to talk about this though. I'd also like to cut the section How models create forecasts out almost completely. It is covered much better in the Numerical weather prediction article. I think that this article should have a short explanation in the section Use of forecast models. This would probably be a little too bold to do without asking for input so please tell me what you think.--NHSavage (talk) 21:56, 9 February 2014 (UTC)
thread_title:  Being bold... 

message: /there are some semantic issues though/
The probability of the occurrence of a weather phenomenon (e.g. precipitation)
is the expected value (of that phenomenon occurring) 
of a large number of virtual outcomes,
for certain periods of time (quanta of time)
and the amount of a specific measurable effect of that weather phenomenon (over a threshold)  — Preceding unsigned comment added by 2.84.222.127 (talk) 19:34, 16 August 2015 (UTC)
thread_title:  Older definition of weather prediction 

message: I wanted to add a link to forecast skill (which I just cleaned up) and there was no appropriate section (what discussion exists seems to be subordinated to specific techniques, which doesn't rub me right) so I added a thin top-level section.  My vote would be to expand this section, poaching existing discussion, but others might prefer to fold this into the existing subordinated presentation. — MaxEnt 02:03, 11 December 2016 (UTC)
replies: text: @MaxEnt, has it already been expanded? 2600:6C5E:3800:187E:8896:A14A:6863:7143 (talk) 20:30, 25 July 2023 (UTC)
thread_title:  Forecast skill 

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thread_title:  External links modified 

message: The article currently says:
* "The low temperature forecast for the current day is calculated using the lowest temperature found between 7pm that evening through 7am the following morning.*ref*Weather Channel - *feedback.weather.com/knowledgebase/articles/32098-weather-com-is-the-low-before-or-after-the-high Calculation of Low Temperature Forecast]*/ref* So, in short, today's forecasted low is most likely tomorrow's low temperature."
This confusing and important subject needs more attention. Most sources of overnight low temp predictions are frustratingly vague about the hours covered by the prediction. The article text WC link re 7pm-7am is dead. (We need a good link to a better source about this.) How true is it? How general is it? In different countries? What happens when the low temp is not actually within this 12 hour period? Can we assume that all historical records use strictly midnight to midnight "days"? Which creates a confusing inconsistency between overnight low predictions and past records -- this is important enough to warrant a clear statement in this and/or other relevant WP articles... (Aside comment: many WP talk pages are over-aggressively archived by robots. Good to see this talk page stretching back over a decade still intact whole, have this feeling of community group work over time.)-73.61.15.24 (talk) 21:46, 15 January 2018 (UTC)
thread_title:  24-hour daily weather period definition/shift 

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thread_title:  External links modified (January 2018) 

message: Surely the people we see and hear presenting the weather forecast deserve at least a section in this page, if not their own page?  There is huge public interest in this role (its history and societal significance) and these people, who may be professional forecasters, or have career paths that intersect with acting and celebrity - or notoriety: George Cowling, Michael Fish, Punxsutawney Phil, naked weather forecasters. See this Guardian article. 112.119.77.63 (talk) 17:45, 17 October 2019 (UTC)
thread_title:  Weathermen, weather girls, weather presenters 

message: Could this be worked into the article? Mapsax (talk) 01:34, 2 February 2021 (UTC)
thread_title:  "Trends in the skill of weather prediction at lead times of 1–14 days" 

message: * https://physicstoday.scitation.org/doi/10.1063/PT.3.4724 for possible use in article. 2601:648:8200:970:0:0:0:1A5F (talk) 01:15, 10 April 2021 (UTC)
thread_title:  medieval weather prediction