Talk:Abortion–breast cancer hypothesis/Archive 2

message: True Discover isn't officially pro-choice, as a progressive science magazine it isn't a stretch to think it is pro-choice. Moreover, when I decided to put it in the pro-choice section, it was because of its author, its content and this other article.
Regarding its content, I find this paragraph particularly troublesome and lacking scientific rigor, or more specifically, lacking fact checking:
Brind dismisses response bias as an unproven hypothesis, but others have found ample evidence for it. In Sweden, epidemiologist Britt-Marie Lindefors-Harris of the Karolinska Institute took advantage of her country's nationwide registry of legal abortions. In a project documented in the American Journal of Epidemiology, Lindefors-Harris conducted a case-control study of abortion and breast cancer, but with a twist: She checked government records to see if the participants were telling the truth about their reproductive histories. Many of them, it turns out, were not. Out of 829 women, 29 appeared to misrepresent their abortion history, with the vast majority of underreporting coming from healthy women in the control group. Based on those numbers, Lindefors-Harris calculated that "an observed increase in risk of up to 50 percent may be caused by response bias."
I strongly feel it should either be put back into the pro-choice section, or removed from the external links section entirely, as it can remain as a footnote reference. Another reason I even linked to the article was to balance the sub-sections out to 5 links each. - RoyBoy 800 16:51, 11 March 2007 (UTC)
replies: text: I see the issue with balancing the number of links. The author does appear to be pro-choice and to write from that perspective. However, there is a difference between Discover (a scientifically focused magazine) and Mother Jones (which has a clear political perspective). The rest of the "pro-life"/"pro-choice" links appeared to be from partisan groups, so Discover did not seem to fit; it seemed to fit best under "Scientific". But I don't feel especially strongly about it, and it sounds like you do, so if you'd like to put it back I won't object. MastCell 20:34, 11 March 2007 (UTC)
replies: text: I agree with your perspective, that's why I think removing the link completely might be the best option. Although I'm confident in my initial categorization of the article, it could successfully be argued it isn't our place to make such nuanced determinations. Even if they are correct; I'll put it back to pro-choice, but something tells me this won't be the last time I address this subtle issue. I'm going to remove the new pro-life Canadian link as non-notable, and balance the links out again. - RoyBoy 800 23:18, 11 March 2007 (UTC)
thread_title:  Discover article 

message: I was thinking of converting all the PubMed references to use the  template format. Any thoughts/objections? MastCell 20:39, 11 March 2007 (UTC)
replies: text: Go for it, it was simply referencing exhaustion on my part that older links weren't converted. I did the vast majority of the refing after a peer review prior to finding out about automated templates; I wasn't pleased to say the least. - RoyBoy 800 23:19, 11 March 2007 (UTC)
replies: text: It won't take long; there's an automated tool that helps you do it (see my user page, at the bottom). I'll take care of it in the next few days. MastCell 00:11, 12 March 2007 (UTC)
thread_title:  Citation format 

message: Good section, tweaked out repetition. I'd also like to see the number of case patients found and emphasized; all these overall large numbers mean squat to me; and can be very misleading to lay readers. Removed following, as I like to avoid the impression these studies dealt with the subjects in a direct way or somehow were carefully ongoing for many many years; rather than the more likely scenario of data crunching an available health database. - RoyBoy 800 23:57, 26 April 2007 (UTC)
thread_title:  Further cohort studies 

message: A diff over five days seems to indicate large content changes, (mostly additions it seems)  and I had intended to review this article, until a bump dislodged my laptop hard drive, and I figured I might as well check the history anyway after it restarted. Homestarmy 19:50, 30 April 2007 (UTC)
replies: text: I've started my review now, I really want to go all out on this one, i'm only partly done, but it may take awhile. Homestarmy 18:54, 1 May 2007 (UTC)

text: Haven't gotten down to the conclusion yet actually, this thing is a big article, and more complicated than I thought it would be.... Homestarmy 23:40, 1 May 2007 (UTC)
thread_title:  Is this article stable enough for a GA review? 

message: Due to confounding factors in real life, I don't have the time to give this article a full review, (Plus, I don't know how helpful it would be when i've already done it once, and therefore might be too familiar with the article) but there seems to be a rather odd oversight in the article nowadays. I look at the organization of it, and I see information on how the issue is politicized, the NCI workshop, a huge amount of space devoted to almost every study on the Abortion-breast cancer hypothesis, that weird court case, laws of the U.S. related to the article's subject, and a section for Carroll. However, there doesn't seem to be any actual material anymore in the body about what the ABC hypothesis actually is. The lead defines it, but the body never goes into what it is more specifically, thusly violating WP:LEAD by introducing unique content into the article, rather than being a summary. For example, some information about ABC that would be important would be when the hypothesis was first proposed, who proposed it, what sort of history was behind it before the 1980's if any, and things like that. Homestarmy 01:58, 30 October 2007 (UTC)
replies: text: You're still immensely helpful, that will indeed need to be put in as History and/or Hypothesis sections. I would note however, every notable study (as far as I can ascertain from coverage) is mentioned here; there are dozens which are not. - RoyBoy 800 02:54, 30 October 2007 (UTC)

text: Done drafts of both. Hope you like! - RoyBoy 800 06:45, 4 November 2007 (UTC)
thread_title: A note

message: Loaded term (partially because it is ambiguous) that implies ABC hypothesis has no science behind. Quite the opposite, studies such as Melbye and Michels indicate high risk sub-groups; and Howe indicates there questions open for consideration; and Daling results speak for themselves regardless of your interpretation(s) of her outlook on the ABC hypothesis. Please do not overreach. I have removed it from the lead; also your championed sentence is accurate, yet very misleading... giving the impression only a pro-life person would consider the ABC hypothesis plausible/real.
Situating a polarized issue with polarized conceptions isn't helpful. Is it NPOV? I'm unsure, as I take great care in leveraging policy when it comes to issues of tone. - RoyBoy 800 01:25, 20 November 2007 (UTC)
replies: text: I'm sorry, I didn't see this note before I reverted. I did leave a note regarding the "rejected"/"unsupported" issue at the bottom of the page - can we move this discussion down there? I don't think it's "polarizing" to describe the scientific community's take on the subject (as sourced to the NCI, American Cancer Society, etc). Certainly, reasonable people ca disagree with the scientific community's view of the topic, but that doesn't change the fact that their view is what it is. It has been rejected, verifiably so. That doesn't mean it has no supporting evidence - it would never have gotten as far as an NCI workshop, nor would this many studies have investigated it, if there were not some basic-science or animal model data to support it. That doesn't change the fact, though, that the hypothesis as applied to humans has been rejected. MastCell Talk 01:37, 20 November 2007 (UTC)
replies: text: Certainly reasonable people can disagree, but how can we truly know a scientific communities view on a politically charged fringe subject; where there is little incentive to dissent? Or in short, we can't know what is a reasonable median. (I think I do, but it involves trying to read between the lines of pro-life sources and pick out the accurate parts, certainly an unscientific endeavor.) But the scientific consensus on the ABC issue is unscientific; by any stretch of the imagination there would be doubt stemming from deviations this article points out. But there isn't, the conservative "there might be exceptions" interpretation goes out the door when it comes to rendering the evidence for public discourse. We can, and I submit, we must do better. - RoyBoy 800 05:32, 20 November 2007 (UTC)
replies: text: In real life, yes, I agree with you. For Wikipedia's purposes, though, you seem to be advocating taking verifiable, well-sourced information and parsing based on our personal level of faith in the scientific consensus. Anyhow, scientific consensus isn't set in stone, it's hardly ever 100% unanimous, and it's subject to change should additional convincing data be presented. But right now, there can be no doubt that there is a scientific consensus that abortion does not cause breast cancer. If that changes tomorrow, then I'll be the first (or second, maybe) to update Wikipedia to reflect the change, but we can't anticipate a change in scientific consensus based on our personal reading of the evidence or valuation of the NCI's expert opinion. Not on Wikipedia, anyway. MastCell Talk 18:59, 20 November 2007 (UTC)
replies: text: LOL, second; nicely played buddy! I think I just want to remind everyone that NPOV isn't just about the public discourse/consensus, but of the scientific nitty gritty; and to not shy away from having both in the article... even if they are, at times, incongruous. There seems to be a notion among some that we are required to tweak the article to present consensus tone at all times. - RoyBoy 800 02:28, 21 November 2007 (UTC)
thread_title: rejected

message: Section should be reverted. You have misappropriated policy, don't do that. WP:Crystal ball refers to  future events; as in if the section talked about the study happening soon. It does not refer to predictions of sources. Even if policy were tweaked to include this instance (it shouldn't be, since many notable writers make predictions that are used by Wikipedia) you are missing the forrest for the trees. It is crucial this pro-life reference, which is already being used in the public sphere; be mentioned here and given appropriate context.
To not do that makes for an incomplete article. Certainly we could argue the notability of such a non-notable / unscientific source, however, I think its notability was given appropriate weight as a small sub-section in the political section at the basement of the article.
There is more to cover, but I need to be outta here. Much more to come from us both, I'm sure. - RoyBoy 800 01:25, 20 November 2007 (UTC)
replies: text: Agree with RoyBoy here. MastCell Talk 01:39, 20 November 2007 (UTC)
replies: text: I didn't purposely "misappropriate" the policy. After re-reading policy, I see my mistake. Thanks for pointing that out! I have a better understanding now. Objection withdrawn. It seems we all have a lot on our plates. I'm happy to continue this civil and productive pace. Looking forward to your input. Phyesalis (talk) 04:02, 20 November 2007 (UTC)
replies: text: Can anyone say whether the statistical study by Carroll has been challenged by other statisticians? The only attack I saw was from an (unqualified) Horizon editor. rossnixon 01:18, 28 November 2007 (UTC)

text: Rossnixon, I've followed your note here. Unfortunately Carroll is not a scientist, he is an actuary, not an epidemiologist. Even if he were a legitimate scientist - one study in a pro-life journal does not topple the National Cancer Institute, the Netherlands Cancer Institute, the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists, the Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists, New England Journal of Medicine, and the head of Epidemiology for the American Cancer society. Also, his 2001 study was labelled as "mischief-making". And this study hasn't been reported much in the mainstream media (you should read all the pro-life rags bitterly complaining about it), because he isn't a legitmate epidemiologist. Phyesalis (talk) 03:11, 28 November 2007 (UTC)
replies: text: So, his statistics have not been challenged? Thanks. rossnixon 01:19, 29 November 2007 (UTC)
thread_title: Patrick Carroll

message: I was trying to find a link to support the "NCI updated website" as a result of pro-life congressman poking around in 1998 (Tom Coburn) and in 2000 (Tom Bliley), and I found a really bad source.
Anyway, I tried to get better sources and got a differing narrative on the NCI website editing; than what we have in the article. Sciencemag.org and a partisan Washington Monthly specify that specific congressmen were involved in pressuring the NCI to change its website in  2002; rather than the Bush administration.
So even though the source for 1998 to 2000 is REALLY bad, I think it has enough truth... and I'm trying to figure out how to confirm it... and if it turns out to be semi-veriafiable, how that ties into (if at all) with a longer and more protracted NCI timeline; which also Ties into the North Dakota lawsuit and its use of NCI material.
Essentially it might be inaccurate to say the Bush administration was responsible, though maybe it was for specific edits in November 2002. I'm suddenly unsure. - RoyBoy 800 04:32, 27 November 2007 (UTC)
thread_title: NCI website timeline

message: I have posted a request over at CLINMED for other users to come and lend their opinion to the issues:
*The article is on a fringe theory. The fringe theory has been dealt with in numerous reliable sources. What weight should be given to info cited in personal pages, amateur partisan websites, religous newsletters and self-published sources (see examples below)?
*To what extent should an editor intrepret tables, and to what extent should these interpretations be used to present studies contra author's stated conclusions?
*What is the statistical significance of relative risk figures with confidence intervals containing values of 1?
*Given that consensus states abortion is not associated with increased risk of breast cancer, to what exent does Carroll's prediction (Carroll is an actuary and publishes in JPandS) section claiming an increase in breast cancer rates based on abortion constitute an exceptional claim (one that would surprise the reader)? If it is, what kind of exceptional documentation does it require?
Source examples for scientific criticism:
*"etters" http://www.etters.net/cancerTP.htm#3 - this is its homepage: http://www.etters.net/
*"Frezza" http://web.archive.org/web/20041011131501/http://www.iol.ie/~hlii/beforeyouchoose.html - this is its homepage: http://web.archive.org/web/20041009151038/www.iol.ie/~hlii/mainpage.html and the article has not been located elsewhere yet.
*"Catholiccitizens.org"(state-wide) http://www.catholiccitizens.org/platform/platformview.asp?c=9446
*Self-published, Brind from his self-created BCPI: http://bcpinstitute.org/beralpaperanalysis.htm  —Preceding unsigned comment added by Phyesalis (talk • contribs) 05:53, 29 November 2007 (UTC)
thread_title: CLINMED comments

message: Last night I switched more info around to put it in chronological order (as previously discussed). I re-classified Beral - author doesn't call it a "Meta-analysis" so we shouldn't either. No reason for Brind's opinion to change it around. I'm going back in to smooth out transitions and things, but please take a look at it and post what you think.
I am officially challenging the following sources (see examples in "CLINMED comments"):
*"Frezza" - this is a general repository of info with no reputation of fact-checking. It is not reliable. If someone can find the article on a reliable and verifiable site, like AIM's website, I will have fewer issues with it as a source of scientific critcism.
*"etters" - amateur partisan website with pro-life and religious bias, associated with conservative group known for hatemongering. No reputation for fact-checking. This one needs to go, period.
*"AnnieAppleseed.org" - this cites like one piece of info. If the info is legit and relevant, we can find it from a better source.
I am going to remove this material and post it here for possible resourcing.
The more debatable sources are Brind's self-publication sources and Malec's religious newsletter sources. The subject is covered in numerous reliable and verifiable sources. We have Brind's study. Given that the subject has been covered and well-documented in academia, and the page is not a soapbox for all of Brind's pro-life activism, why should we resort to unreliable sources? I think we need some discussion on this.
 
Consider these points from WP:Fringe theories:
*An appearance on Wikipedia should not make something more notable than it actually is. Since Wikipedia describes in its articles significant opinions, it is important that Wikipedia itself not become the notability-validating source for non-significant theories...Furthermore, one may not be able to write about a subject in a neutral manner if the subject completely lacks secondary sources that are reliable.
*Primary sources about research and investigations should only be used to verify the text and should not be relied upon exclusively as doing so would violate Wikipedia's ban on original research. In the case of obscure fringe theories, secondary sources that describe the theories should be carefully vetted for reliability. This includes references, citations, and external links.
*Inclusion and exclusion of content related to fringe theories and criticism of fringe theories may be done by means of a rough parity of sources. If an article is written about a well-known topic, fringe theories that may seem relevant but are only sourced by obscure texts that lack peer review should not be included in the article. 
*Parity of sources may mean that certain obscure fringe theories are only reliably and verifiably reported or criticized in alternative venues from those that are typically used in publishing about these topics. For example, the lack of peer-reviewed criticism of creation science should not be used as a justification for marginalizing or removing scientific criticism of creation science since peer-reviewed journals routinely reject submissions relating to the subject.
Peer-review journals regular accept submissions relating to both abortion and breast cancer. The level of secondary reliable sources proves this. This theory has been thoroughly peer-reviewed. Sources of an unreliable nature should be discounted. This isn't creation science so religious sources aren't valid. It's not the Apollo hoax, so random amateur websites aren't valid. Let's just stick to WP standards. Thoughts? Phyesalis 17:55, 30 November 2007 (UTC)
replies: text: I'm taking the lack of response as a lack of defense. I don't think there is an argument for keeping these sources. I'm going to remove the material and post it here so that if reliable and verifiable sources can be found, the info can be worked in. Phyesalis 05:05, 3 December 2007 (UTC)
replies: text: Sounds fair. - RoyBoy 800 04:21, 4 December 2007 (UTC)
thread_title: Recent edits and sources

message: While I have yet to find a direct source for stipulating LH study with 65 cases is small, I did find this stipulating a 1981 study as an "extremely small cohort size" for 163 breast cancer cases. This same website refers to the 1989 study (and 49,000), but fails to mention what the cohort actually consisted of. Am I missing something, or is this an obvious double standard? - RoyBoy 800 03:57, 6 December 2007 (UTC)
replies: text: Sorry, can you give me a quick link to the LH study? Having trouble keeping up. MastCell Talk 21:32, 12 December 2007 (UTC)
replies: text: It is Lindefors-Harris et al. (1989). Link. - RoyBoy 800 00:22, 13 December 2007 (UTC)
replies: text: Aha. I was thinking luteinizing hormone. That makes more sense. MastCell Talk 05:21, 13 December 2007 (UTC)
thread_title: LH small cohort

message: Not sure if this has already been discussed here, but I found this old piece from the Columbia Journalism Review topical and interesting - not sure exactly how/whether to work it in, though. MastCell Talk 00:13, 21 December 2007 (UTC)
replies: text: I read the Columbia Review Journal often because they go beyond "he said/she said" journalism, and the editors do not put "balance" ahead of accuracy.  The CRJ is neutral and well researched. The article you linked to above is certainly pertinent. It goes to the heart of the problems with the ABC hypothesis - and sheds light on things like "Post-Abortion Syndrome" as well.--IronAngelAlice (talk) 00:30, 21 December 2007 (UTC)

text: I recall something about this being mentioned a long time ago, indeed it is an excellent article. Though the section could be expanded to include political snipping by both sides; however, I do not have a source which analyzes... if I remember correctly Jasen touches on it. I need to get to bed, 1am isn't good. - RoyBoy 800 05:54, 21 December 2007 (UTC)
replies: text: I see this piece was removed from the lead as "partisan". While I don't have a strong feeling on whether it belongs in the lead, it seems a bit ironic to label it partisan. Mooney's point was that journalists often create a debate where none exists in an attempt to appear "neutral" or non-partisan. Reporting which states clearly that the ABC hypothesis has been rejected by the scientific community and is currently a pro-life political tool is not partisan, but accurate and neutral. Reporting which quotes the WHO/NCI/ACOG/etc on one hand and Joel Brind on the other, as if they were on nearly equal footing, is the truly skewed or partisan reporting. At least that's what I take his point to be. MastCell Talk 07:00, 25 December 2007 (UTC)
replies: text: A strong conclusion does not make for a balanced article. I only had the read the first paragraph to reject the article as suitable for the lead: "only anti-abortion activists do", while mostly true it is also flat wrong, and in a good faith attempt to analyze skewed journalistic balance, he seems to have forgotten his. Ironic indeed, and I'm a little frustrated you guys didn't notice that after all our back and forth here. - RoyBoy 800 22:31, 25 December 2007 (UTC)
replies: text: A bit off topic, but curious: is there notable current support for ABC outside of pro-life activist circles? The remaining proponents of the idea seem to all move in such circles. MastCell Talk 07:19, 26 December 2007 (UTC)
replies: text: It is the height of hubris for Mooney to think he knows the minds of Howe, Daling (even Michaels and Melbye) and other neutral scientists who have raised questions about the ABC issue from their research. While they may not believe the ABC "link" exists as pro-life advocates do; Mooney's statement goes beyond that to say no scientist takes ABC seriously, and/or it has been entirely "rejected". Which is very foolish and irresponsible, epidemiologists are examining this issue in depth not because of some phantom mechanism or merely facing down pro-life propaganda. There is a real question of biology they are examining, and they come up with mixed results; every... single... time, even with improved methodologies. As such, Mooney's surety has its place on the politics but not on the science nor the nuanced determinations of scientists. I only got the backbone to change the lead back (to unsupported) when I saw the WHO interpretation, and I came up with a way to keep "rejected" in the lead; but in a more accurate context. (it still may not be entirely accurate, as again it is difficult to know the actual opinions of individual scientists on the ABC issue in its entirety) - RoyBoy 800 22:13, 26 December 2007 (UTC)
replies: text: MastCell, please correct me if I am wrong, but you have supported "rejected" on numerous occasions, as have I. Royboy, you've come up with a way to keep it out of the lead because you don't want it in the lead, because (it seems) you think ABC is legit. Yet, even though they are still researching it,  with every single round of improved methodology reliable science finds less and less of a correlation. No reliable study supports a causal relationship. I'm having a hard time seeing this as anything other than POV pushing. We've managed to keep this whole dispute rather civil. I'd hate to see that go to waste. If we can't resolve this quickly, I say we move to an RfC. Phyesalis (talk) 18:26, 29 December 2007 (UTC)
replies: text: I concur with less and less correlation from overall findings, but high risk sub-groups continue to exist and cannot be ignored. (a case of throwing out the baby with the bath water) More to the point, no study has ever stipulated Russo's hypothesis as incorrect and hence "rejected"; regardless of correlative or causal determinations. The closest is the NCI "well established" conclusion, but as previously discussed they did not create any new evidence; rather they rendered a verdict on the evidence they considered valid. As WHO has shown, there are more precise scientific verdicts on the evidence. I currently see WHO and the NCI as being in agreement, however WHO is simply more precise in their wording (alternatively WHO is merely more conservative in its interpretation of the evidence); which clarifies to us the state of current scientific knowledge. We should prioritize that over editorial assertions by journalists. - RoyBoy 800 19:58, 29 December 2007 (UTC)
thread_title:  Interesting piece from Columbia Journalism Review