Kaggle competition: COVID19 Global Forecasting (Week 4)
<SOS> metric: MCRMSLE Kaggle data source: covid19-global-forecasting-(week-4)<set_options>
if not sys.warnoptions:
warnings.simplefilter("ignore")
 warnings.filterwarnings("ignore")
del train_df_clf
del valid_df
gc.collect()<data_type_conversions>
def RMSLE(pred,actual):
return np.sqrt(np.mean(np.power(( np.log(pred+1)-np.log(actual+1)) ,2)) )
for i in range(0,num):
X_train_np = np.ndarray(shape=(len(trains[0]), len(features)) , dtype=np.float32)
 X_valid_np = np.ndarray(shape=(len(valids[0]), len(features)) , dtype=np.float32)
 for idx, feature in enumerate(tqdm(features)) :
X_train_np[:,idx] = trains[i][feature].values.astype(np.float32)
 X_valid_np[:,idx] = valids[i][feature].values.astype(np.float32)
 tr_data = lgb.Dataset(X_train_np, label=trains[i][target], feature_name=list(features))
va_data = lgb.Dataset(X_valid_np, label=valids[i][target], feature_name=list(features))
del trains
del valids
del X_train_np
del X_valid_np
gc.collect()
params = {
'num_leaves': 300,
'max_bin':450,
'min_child_weight': 0.03454472573214212,
'feature_fraction': 0.52,
'bagging_fraction': 0.52,
'min_data_in_leaf': 106,
'max_depth': -1,
'objective': 'binary',
'learning_rate': 0.05,
"boosting_type": "gbdt",
"metric": 'auc',
"bagging_seed": 11,
"verbosity": -1,
'reg_alpha': 0.3899927210061127,
'reg_lambda': 0.6485237330340494,
'random_state': 47
}
print(f'Start training with {len(features)} features: {features}')
 print('Start training')
 model = lgb.train(
 params,
tr_data,
num_boost_round=5000,
valid_sets=[va_data],
early_stopping_rounds=50,
feature_name=features,
categorical_feature=categorical_columns,
verbose_eval=50 
)
 print('Finishing training')
 del tr_data
del va_data
print('Saving the model')
 clfs.append(model)
 model.save_model(f'model.txt')
 print('Computing feature importance...')
 fig,ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(15,15))
lgb.plot_importance(model, ax=ax,importance_type='gain',max_num_features=50)
 plt.show()
gc.collect()<data_type_conversions>
pd.set_option('mode.chained_assignment', None)
 test = pd.read_csv("/kaggle/input/covid19-global-forecasting-week-4/test.csv")
 train = pd.read_csv("/kaggle/input/covid19-global-forecasting-week-4/train.csv")
 train['Province_State'].fillna('', inplace=True)
 test['Province_State'].fillna('', inplace=True)
 train['Date'] = pd.to_datetime(train['Date'])
 test['Date'] = pd.to_datetime(test['Date'])
 train = train.sort_values(['Country_Region','Province_State','Date'])
 test = test.sort_values(['Country_Region','Province_State','Date'] )
user_sum_dict = user_agg['sum'].astype('int16' ).to_dict(defaultdict(int))
user_count_dict = user_agg['count'].astype('int16' ).to_dict(defaultdict(int))
del user_agg
gc.collect()<data_type_conversions>
feature_day = [1,20,50,100,200,500,1000]
def CreateInput(data):
feature = []
for day in feature_day:
data.loc[:,'Number day from ' + str(day)+ ' case'] = 0
if(train[(train['Country_Region'] == country)&(train['Province_State'] == province)&(train['ConfirmedCases'] < day)]['Date'].count() > 0):
fromday = train[(train['Country_Region'] == country)&(train['Province_State'] == province)&(train['ConfirmedCases'] < day)]['Date'].max()
else:
fromday = train[(train['Country_Region'] == country)&(train['Province_State'] == province)]['Date'].min()
for i in range(0, len(data)) :
if(data['Date'].iloc[i] > fromday):
day_denta = data['Date'].iloc[i] - fromday
data['Number day from ' + str(day)+ ' case'].iloc[i] = day_denta.days
feature = feature + ['Number day from ' + str(day)+ ' case']
return data[feature]
pred_data_all = pd.DataFrame()
for country in train['Country_Region'].unique() :
for province in train[(train['Country_Region'] == country)]['Province_State'].unique() :
df_train = train[(train['Country_Region'] == country)&(train['Province_State'] == province)]
df_test = test[(test['Country_Region'] == country)&(test['Province_State'] == province)]
X_train = CreateInput(df_train)
 y_train_confirmed = df_train['ConfirmedCases'].ravel()
y_train_fatalities = df_train['Fatalities'].ravel()
X_pred = CreateInput(df_test)
 for day in sorted(feature_day,reverse = True):
feature_use = 'Number day from ' + str(day)+ ' case'
idx = X_train[X_train[feature_use] == 0].shape[0]
if(X_train[X_train[feature_use] > 0].shape[0] >= 20):
break
adjusted_X_train = X_train[idx:][feature_use].values.reshape(-1, 1)
 adjusted_y_train_confirmed = y_train_confirmed[idx:]
adjusted_y_train_fatalities = y_train_fatalities[idx:]
idx = X_pred[X_pred[feature_use] == 0].shape[0]
adjusted_X_pred = X_pred[idx:][feature_use].values.reshape(-1, 1)
 pred_data = test[(test['Country_Region'] == country)&(test['Province_State'] == province)]
max_train_date = train[(train['Country_Region'] == country)&(train['Province_State'] == province)]['Date'].max()
min_test_date = pred_data['Date'].min()
model = ExponentialSmoothing(adjusted_y_train_confirmed, trend = 'additive' ).fit()
y_hat_confirmed = model.forecast(pred_data[pred_data['Date'] > max_train_date].shape[0])
 y_train_confirmed = train[(train['Country_Region'] == country)&(train['Province_State'] == province)&(train['Date'] >= min_test_date)]['ConfirmedCases'].values
y_hat_confirmed = np.concatenate(( y_train_confirmed,y_hat_confirmed), axis = 0)
 model = ExponentialSmoothing(adjusted_y_train_fatalities, trend = 'additive' ).fit()
y_hat_fatalities = model.forecast(pred_data[pred_data['Date'] > max_train_date].shape[0])
 y_train_fatalities = train[(train['Country_Region'] == country)&(train['Province_State'] == province)&(train['Date'] >= min_test_date)]['Fatalities'].values
y_hat_fatalities = np.concatenate(( y_train_fatalities,y_hat_fatalities), axis = 0)
 pred_data['ConfirmedCases_hat'] = y_hat_confirmed
pred_data['Fatalities_hat'] = y_hat_fatalities
pred_data_all = pred_data_all.append(pred_data)
 df_val = pd.merge(pred_data_all,train[['Date','Country_Region','Province_State','ConfirmedCases','Fatalities']],on=['Date','Country_Region','Province_State'], how='left')
 df_val.loc[df_val['Fatalities_hat'] < 0,'Fatalities_hat'] = 0
df_val.loc[df_val['ConfirmedCases_hat'] < 0,'ConfirmedCases_hat'] = 0
df_val_1 = df_val.copy()
task_container_sum_dict = task_container_agg['sum'].astype('int32' ).to_dict(defaultdict(int))
task_container_count_dict = task_container_agg['count'].astype('int32' ).to_dict(defaultdict(int))
explanation_sum_dict = explanation_agg['sum'].astype('int16' ).to_dict(defaultdict(int))
explanation_count_dict = explanation_agg['count'].astype('int16' ).to_dict(defaultdict(int))
del task_container_agg
del explanation_agg
gc.collect()<data_type_conversions>
feature_day = [1,20,50,100,200,500,1000]
def CreateInput(data):
feature = []
for day in feature_day:
data.loc[:,'Number day from ' + str(day)+ ' case'] = 0
if(train[(train['Country_Region'] == country)&(train['Province_State'] == province)&(train['ConfirmedCases'] < day)]['Date'].count() > 0):
fromday = train[(train['Country_Region'] == country)&(train['Province_State'] == province)&(train['ConfirmedCases'] < day)]['Date'].max()
else:
fromday = train[(train['Country_Region'] == country)&(train['Province_State'] == province)]['Date'].min()
for i in range(0, len(data)) :
if(data['Date'].iloc[i] > fromday):
day_denta = data['Date'].iloc[i] - fromday
data['Number day from ' + str(day)+ ' case'].iloc[i] = day_denta.days
feature = feature + ['Number day from ' + str(day)+ ' case']
return data[feature]
pred_data_all = pd.DataFrame()
for country in train['Country_Region'].unique() :
for province in train[(train['Country_Region'] == country)]['Province_State'].unique() :
df_train = train[(train['Country_Region'] == country)&(train['Province_State'] == province)]
df_test = test[(test['Country_Region'] == country)&(test['Province_State'] == province)]
X_train = CreateInput(df_train)
 y_train_confirmed = df_train['ConfirmedCases'].ravel()
y_train_fatalities = df_train['Fatalities'].ravel()
X_pred = CreateInput(df_test)
 for day in sorted(feature_day,reverse = True):
feature_use = 'Number day from ' + str(day)+ ' case'
idx = X_train[X_train[feature_use] == 0].shape[0]
if(X_train[X_train[feature_use] > 0].shape[0] >= 20):
break
adjusted_X_train = X_train[idx:][feature_use].values.reshape(-1, 1)
 adjusted_y_train_confirmed = y_train_confirmed[idx:]
adjusted_y_train_fatalities = y_train_fatalities[idx:]
idx = X_pred[X_pred[feature_use] == 0].shape[0]
adjusted_X_pred = X_pred[idx:][feature_use].values.reshape(-1, 1)
 pred_data = test[(test['Country_Region'] == country)&(test['Province_State'] == province)]
max_train_date = train[(train['Country_Region'] == country)&(train['Province_State'] == province)]['Date'].max()
min_test_date = pred_data['Date'].min()
model = SARIMAX(adjusted_y_train_confirmed, order=(1,1,0),
measurement_error=True ).fit(disp=False)
 y_hat_confirmed = model.forecast(pred_data[pred_data['Date'] > max_train_date].shape[0])
 y_train_confirmed = train[(train['Country_Region'] == country)&(train['Province_State'] == province)&(train['Date'] >= min_test_date)]['ConfirmedCases'].values
y_hat_confirmed = np.concatenate(( y_train_confirmed,y_hat_confirmed), axis = 0)
 model = SARIMAX(adjusted_y_train_fatalities, order=(1,1,0),
measurement_error=True ).fit(disp=False)
 y_hat_fatalities = model.forecast(pred_data[pred_data['Date'] > max_train_date].shape[0])
 y_train_fatalities = train[(train['Country_Region'] == country)&(train['Province_State'] == province)&(train['Date'] >= min_test_date)]['Fatalities'].values
y_hat_fatalities = np.concatenate(( y_train_fatalities,y_hat_fatalities), axis = 0)
 pred_data['ConfirmedCases_hat'] = y_hat_confirmed
pred_data['Fatalities_hat'] = y_hat_fatalities
pred_data_all = pred_data_all.append(pred_data)
 df_val = pd.merge(pred_data_all,train[['Date','Country_Region','Province_State','ConfirmedCases','Fatalities']],on=['Date','Country_Region','Province_State'], how='left')
 df_val.loc[df_val['Fatalities_hat'] < 0,'Fatalities_hat'] = 0
df_val.loc[df_val['ConfirmedCases_hat'] < 0,'ConfirmedCases_hat'] = 0
df_val_2 = df_val.copy()
user_lecture_sum_dict = user_lecture_agg['sum'].astype('int16' ).to_dict(defaultdict(int))
user_lecture_count_dict = user_lecture_agg['count'].astype('int16' ).to_dict(defaultdict(int))
del user_lecture_agg
gc.collect()<categorify>
method_list = ['Exponential Smoothing','SARIMA']
method_val = [df_val_1,df_val_2]
for i in range(0,2):
df_val = method_val[i]
method_score = [method_list[i]] + [RMSLE(df_val[(df_val['ConfirmedCases'].isnull() == False)]['ConfirmedCases'].values,df_val[(df_val['ConfirmedCases'].isnull() == False)]['ConfirmedCases_hat'].values)] + [RMSLE(df_val[(df_val['Fatalities'].isnull() == False)]['Fatalities'].values,df_val[(df_val['Fatalities'].isnull() == False)]['Fatalities_hat'].values)]
print(method_score )
max_timestamp_u_dict=max_timestamp_u.set_index('user_id' ).to_dict()
max_timestamp_u_dict2=max_timestamp_u2.set_index('user_id' ).to_dict()
max_timestamp_u_dict3=max_timestamp_u3.set_index('user_id' ).to_dict()
user_prior_question_elapsed_time_dict=user_prior_question_elapsed_time.set_index('user_id' ).to_dict()
del max_timestamp_u
del max_timestamp_u2
del max_timestamp_u3
del user_prior_question_elapsed_time
gc.collect()<categorify>
df_val = df_val_2
submission = df_val[['ForecastId','ConfirmedCases_hat','Fatalities_hat']]
submission.columns = ['ForecastId','ConfirmedCases','Fatalities']
submission.to_csv('submission.csv', index=False)
 submission