Kaggle competition: COVID19 Global Forecasting (Week 4)
def future_mask(seq_length):
future_mask =(np.triu(np.ones([seq_length, seq_length]), k = 1)).astype('bool')
 return torch.from_numpy(future_mask )<choose_model_class>
train_data = pd.read_csv('/kaggle/input/covid19-global-forecasting-week-4/train.csv')
 test_data = pd.read_csv('/kaggle/input/covid19-global-forecasting-week-4/test.csv')
 submission_csv = pd.read_csv('/kaggle/input/covid19-global-forecasting-week-4/submission.csv' )
class TransformerBlock(nn.Module):
def __init__(self, embed_dim, heads = 8, dropout = DROPOUT, forward_expansion = 1):
super(TransformerBlock, self ).__init__()
self.multi_att = nn.MultiheadAttention(embed_dim=embed_dim, num_heads=heads, dropout=dropout)
 self.dropout = nn.Dropout(dropout)
 self.layer_normal = nn.LayerNorm(embed_dim)
 self.ffn = FFN(embed_dim, forward_expansion = forward_expansion, dropout=dropout)
 self.ffn0 = FFN0(embed_dim, forward_expansion = forward_expansion, dropout=dropout)
 self.layer_normal_2 = nn.LayerNorm(embed_dim)
 def forward(self, value, key, query, att_mask):
att_output, att_weight = self.multi_att(value, key, query, attn_mask=att_mask)
 att_output = self.dropout(self.layer_normal(att_output + value))
att_output = att_output.permute(1, 0, 2)
 x = self.ffn(att_output)
 x1 = self.ffn0(att_output)
 x = self.dropout(self.layer_normal_2(x + x1 + att_output))
return x.squeeze(-1), att_weight
class Encoder(nn.Module):
def __init__(self, n_skill, max_seq=100, embed_dim=128, dropout = DROPOUT, forward_expansion = 1, num_layers=1, heads = 8):
super(Encoder, self ).__init__()
self.n_skill, self.embed_dim = n_skill, embed_dim
self.embedding = nn.Embedding(2 * n_skill + 1, embed_dim)
 self.pos_embedding = nn.Embedding(max_seq - 1, embed_dim)
 self.e_embedding = nn.Embedding(n_skill+1, embed_dim)
 self.layers = nn.ModuleList([TransformerBlock(embed_dim, forward_expansion = forward_expansion)for _ in range(num_layers)])
 self.dropout = nn.Dropout(dropout)
 def forward(self, x, question_ids):
device = x.device
x = self.embedding(x)
 pos_id = torch.arange(x.size(1)).unsqueeze(0 ).to(device)
 pos_x = self.pos_embedding(pos_id)
 x = self.dropout(x + pos_x)
 x = x.permute(1, 0, 2)
 e = self.e_embedding(question_ids)
 e = e.permute(1, 0, 2)
 for layer in self.layers:
att_mask = future_mask(e.size(0)).to(device)
 x, att_weight = layer(e, x, x, att_mask=att_mask)
 x = x.permute(1, 0, 2)
 x = x.permute(1, 0, 2)
 return x, att_weight
class SAKTModel(nn.Module):
def __init__(self, n_skill, max_seq = MAX_SEQ, embed_dim=128, dropout = DROPOUT, forward_expansion = 1, enc_layers=1, heads = 8):
super(SAKTModel, self ).__init__()
self.encoder = Encoder(n_skill, max_seq, embed_dim, dropout, forward_expansion, num_layers=enc_layers)
 self.pred = nn.Linear(embed_dim, 1)
 def forward(self, x, question_ids):
x, att_weight = self.encoder(x, question_ids)
 x = self.pred(x)
 return x.squeeze(-1), att_weight<load_pretrained>
convert_dict = {'Province_State': str,'Country_Region':str,'ConfirmedCases':int,'Fatalities':int}
convert_dict_test = {'Province_State': str,'Country_Region':str}
train_data = train_data.astype(convert_dict)
 test_data = test_data.astype(convert_dict_test )
skills = joblib.load("/kaggle/input/riiid-sakt-model-dataset-public/skills.pkl.zip")
 group = joblib.load("/kaggle/input/riiid-sakt-model-dataset-public/group.pkl.zip")
 m_path = "/kaggle/input/v4-fork-of-riiid-sakt-model-full/sakt_model.pt"
n_skill = len(skills)
 device = torch.device("cuda" if torch.cuda.is_available() else "cpu")
 nn_model = SAKTModel(n_skill, embed_dim = EMBED_SIZE)
 try:
nn_model.load_state_dict(torch.load(m_path))
except:
nn_model.load_state_dict(torch.load(m_path, map_location='cpu'))
nn_model.to(device)
 nn_model.eval()<prepare_output>
train_data['Date'] = pd.to_datetime(train_data['Date'], infer_datetime_format=True)
 test_data['Date'] = pd.to_datetime(test_data['Date'], infer_datetime_format=True )
class TestDataset(Dataset):
def __init__(self, samples, test_df, n_skill, max_seq = MAX_SEQ):
super(TestDataset, self ).__init__()
self.samples, self.user_ids, self.test_df = samples, [x for x in test_df["user_id"].unique() ], test_df
self.n_skill, self.max_seq = n_skill, max_seq
def __len__(self):
return self.test_df.shape[0]
def __getitem__(self, index):
test_info = self.test_df.iloc[index]
user_id = test_info['user_id']
target_id = test_info['content_id']
content_id_seq = np.zeros(self.max_seq, dtype=int)
 answered_correctly_seq = np.zeros(self.max_seq, dtype=int)
 if user_id in self.samples.index:
content_id, answered_correctly = self.samples[user_id]
seq_len = len(content_id)
 if seq_len >= self.max_seq:
content_id_seq = content_id[-self.max_seq:]
answered_correctly_seq = answered_correctly[-self.max_seq:]
else:
content_id_seq[-seq_len:] = content_id
answered_correctly_seq[-seq_len:] = answered_correctly
x = content_id_seq[1:].copy()
x +=(answered_correctly_seq[1:] == 1)* self.n_skill
questions = np.append(content_id_seq[2:], [target_id])
 return x, questions<categorify>
train_data.loc[:, 'Date'] = train_data.Date.dt.strftime('%m%d')
 train_data.loc[:, 'Date'] = train_data['Date'].astype(int)
 test_data.loc[:, 'Date'] = test_data.Date.dt.strftime('%m%d')
 test_data.loc[:, 'Date'] = test_data['Date'].astype(int )
<data_type_conversions>
train_data['Country_Region'] = np.where(train_data['Province_State'] == 'nan',train_data['Country_Region'],train_data['Province_State']+' '+train_data['Country_Region'])
 test_data['Country_Region'] = np.where(test_data['Province_State'] == 'nan',test_data['Country_Region'],test_data['Province_State']+' '+test_data['Country_Region'])
user_sum_dict = user_agg['sum'].astype('int16' ).to_dict(defaultdict(int))
user_count_dict = user_agg['count'].astype('int16' ).to_dict(defaultdict(int))<data_type_conversions>
train_data = train_data.drop(columns=['Province_State'])
 test_data = test_data.drop(columns=['Province_State'] )
del user_agg
gc.collect()
task_container_sum_dict = task_container_agg['sum'].astype('int32' ).to_dict(defaultdict(int))
task_container_count_dict = task_container_agg['count'].astype('int32' ).to_dict(defaultdict(int))
task_container_std_dict = task_container_agg['var'].astype('float16' ).to_dict(defaultdict(int))
explanation_sum_dict = explanation_agg['sum'].astype('int16' ).to_dict(defaultdict(int))
explanation_count_dict = explanation_agg['count'].astype('int16' ).to_dict(defaultdict(int))
del task_container_agg
del explanation_agg
gc.collect()<data_type_conversions>
s =(train_data.dtypes == 'object')
 object_cols = list(s[s].index )
user_lecture_sum_dict = user_lecture_agg['sum'].astype('int16' ).to_dict(defaultdict(int))
user_lecture_count_dict = user_lecture_agg['count'].astype('int16' ).to_dict(defaultdict(int))
del user_lecture_agg
gc.collect()<categorify>
from sklearn.preprocessing import LabelEncoder
max_timestamp_u_dict=max_timestamp_u.set_index('user_id' ).to_dict()
max_timestamp_u_dict2=max_timestamp_u2.set_index('user_id' ).to_dict()
max_timestamp_u_dict3=max_timestamp_u3.set_index('user_id' ).to_dict()
user_prior_question_elapsed_time_dict=user_prior_question_elapsed_time.set_index('user_id' ).to_dict()
del max_timestamp_u
del max_timestamp_u2
del max_timestamp_u3
del user_prior_question_elapsed_time
gc.collect()<categorify>
label_encoder1 = LabelEncoder()
label_encoder2 = LabelEncoder()
train_data['Country_Region'] = label_encoder2.fit_transform(train_data['Country_Region'])
 test_data['Country_Region'] = label_encoder2.transform(test_data['Country_Region'] )
attempt_no_sum_dict = attempt_no_agg['sum'].to_dict(defaultdict(int))
del attempt_no_agg
gc.collect()<feature_engineering>
Test_id = test_data.ForecastId
def get_max_attempt(user_id,content_id):
k =(user_id,content_id)
 if k in attempt_no_sum_dict.keys() :
attempt_no_sum_dict[k]+=1
return attempt_no_sum_dict[k]
attempt_no_sum_dict[k] = 1
return attempt_no_sum_dict[k]<find_best_params>
train_data.drop(['Id'], axis=1, inplace=True)
 test_data.drop('ForecastId', axis=1, inplace=True )
env = riiideducation.make_env()<define_variables>
missing_val_count_by_column =(train_data.isnull().sum())
 print(missing_val_count_by_column[missing_val_count_by_column>0] )
iter_test = env.iter_test()
prior_test_df = None
prev_test_df = None<define_search_space>
from xgboost.sklearn import XGBRegressor
N=[0.4,0.6]<groupby>
X_train = train_data[['Country_Region','Date']]
y_train = train_data[['ConfirmedCases', 'Fatalities']]
%%time
for(test_df, sample_prediction_df)in iter_test:
test_df1 = test_df.copy()
if(prev_test_df is not None):
prev_test_df['answered_correctly'] = eval(test_df1['prior_group_answers_correct'].iloc[0])
 prev_test_df = prev_test_df[prev_test_df.content_type_id == False]
prev_group = prev_test_df[['user_id', 'content_id', 'answered_correctly']].groupby('user_id' ).apply(lambda r:(
 r['content_id'].values,
r['answered_correctly'].values))
for prev_user_id in prev_group.index:
if prev_user_id in group.index:
group[prev_user_id] =(np.append(group[prev_user_id][0], prev_group[prev_user_id][0])[-MAX_SEQ:],
np.append(group[prev_user_id][1], prev_group[prev_user_id][1])[-MAX_SEQ:] 
)
 else:
group[prev_user_id] =(
 prev_group[prev_user_id][0],
prev_group[prev_user_id][1] 
)
 prev_test_df = test_df1.copy()
test_df1 = test_df1[test_df1.content_type_id == False]
test_dataset = TestDataset(group, test_df1, n_skill, max_seq=MAX_SEQ)
 test_dataloader = DataLoader(test_dataset, batch_size = 51200, shuffle=False)
 outs = []
for item in test_dataloader:
x = item[0].to(device ).long()
target_id = item[1].to(device ).long()
with torch.no_grad() :
output, att_weight = nn_model(x, target_id)
 outs.extend(torch.sigmoid(output)[:, -1].view(-1 ).data.cpu().numpy())
 if prior_test_df is not None:
prior_test_df[target] = eval(test_df['prior_group_answers_correct'].iloc[0])
 prior_test_df = prior_test_df[prior_test_df[target] != -1].reset_index(drop=True)
 prior_test_df['prior_question_had_explanation'].fillna(False, inplace=True)
 prior_test_df.prior_question_had_explanation=prior_test_df.prior_question_had_explanation.astype('int8')
 user_ids = prior_test_df['user_id'].values
targets = prior_test_df[target].values
for user_id, answered_correctly in zip(user_ids,targets):
user_sum_dict[user_id] += answered_correctly
user_count_dict[user_id] += 1
prior_test_df = test_df.copy()
question_len=len(test_df[test_df['content_type_id'] == 0])
 test_df['prior_question_had_explanation'].fillna(False, inplace=True)
 test_df.prior_question_had_explanation=test_df.prior_question_had_explanation.astype('int8')
 test_df['prior_question_elapsed_time'].fillna(prior_question_elapsed_time_mean, inplace=True)
 user_lecture_sum = np.zeros(question_len, dtype=np.int16)
 user_lecture_count = np.zeros(question_len, dtype=np.int16)
 user_sum = np.zeros(question_len, dtype=np.int16)
 user_count = np.zeros(question_len, dtype=np.int16)
 task_container_sum = np.zeros(question_len, dtype=np.int32)
 task_container_count = np.zeros(question_len, dtype=np.int32)
 task_container_std = np.zeros(question_len, dtype=np.float16)
 explanation_sum = np.zeros(question_len, dtype=np.int32)
 explanation_count = np.zeros(question_len, dtype=np.int32)
 delta_prior_question_elapsed_time = np.zeros(question_len, dtype=np.int32)
 attempt_no_count = np.zeros(question_len, dtype=np.int16)
 lagtime = np.zeros(question_len, dtype=np.float32)
 lagtime2 = np.zeros(question_len, dtype=np.float32)
 lagtime3 = np.zeros(question_len, dtype=np.float32)
 i=0
for j,(user_id,prior_question_had_explanation,content_type_id,prior_question_elapsed_time,timestamp, content_id,task_container_id)in enumerate(zip(test_df['user_id'].values,test_df['prior_question_had_explanation'].values,test_df['content_type_id'].values,test_df['prior_question_elapsed_time'].values,test_df['timestamp'].values, test_df['content_id'].values, test_df['task_container_id'].values)) :
user_lecture_sum_dict[user_id] += content_type_id
user_lecture_count_dict[user_id] += 1
if(content_type_id==1):
x=1
if(content_type_id==0):
user_lecture_sum[i] = user_lecture_sum_dict[user_id]
user_lecture_count[i] = user_lecture_count_dict[user_id]
user_sum[i] = user_sum_dict[user_id]
user_count[i] = user_count_dict[user_id]
task_container_sum[i] = task_container_sum_dict[task_container_id]
task_container_count[i] = task_container_count_dict[task_container_id]
task_container_std[i]=task_container_std_dict[task_container_id]
explanation_sum_dict[user_id] += prior_question_had_explanation
explanation_count_dict[user_id] += 1
explanation_sum[i] = explanation_sum_dict[user_id]
explanation_count[i] = explanation_count_dict[user_id]
if user_id in max_timestamp_u_dict['max_time_stamp'].keys() :
lagtime[i]=timestamp-max_timestamp_u_dict['max_time_stamp'][user_id]
if(max_timestamp_u_dict2['max_time_stamp2'][user_id]==lagtime_mean2):
lagtime2[i]=lagtime_mean2
lagtime3[i]=lagtime_mean3
else:
lagtime2[i]=timestamp-max_timestamp_u_dict2['max_time_stamp2'][user_id]
if(max_timestamp_u_dict3['max_time_stamp3'][user_id]==lagtime_mean3):
lagtime3[i]=lagtime_mean3
else:
lagtime3[i]=timestamp-max_timestamp_u_dict3['max_time_stamp3'][user_id]
max_timestamp_u_dict3['max_time_stamp3'][user_id]=max_timestamp_u_dict2['max_time_stamp2'][user_id]
max_timestamp_u_dict2['max_time_stamp2'][user_id]=max_timestamp_u_dict['max_time_stamp'][user_id]
max_timestamp_u_dict['max_time_stamp'][user_id]=timestamp
else:
lagtime[i]=lagtime_mean
max_timestamp_u_dict['max_time_stamp'].update({user_id:timestamp})
 lagtime2[i]=lagtime_mean2
max_timestamp_u_dict2['max_time_stamp2'].update({user_id:lagtime_mean2})
 lagtime3[i]=lagtime_mean3
max_timestamp_u_dict3['max_time_stamp3'].update({user_id:lagtime_mean3})
 if user_id in user_prior_question_elapsed_time_dict['prior_question_elapsed_time'].keys() :
delta_prior_question_elapsed_time[i]=prior_question_elapsed_time-user_prior_question_elapsed_time_dict['prior_question_elapsed_time'][user_id]
user_prior_question_elapsed_time_dict['prior_question_elapsed_time'][user_id]=prior_question_elapsed_time
else:
delta_prior_question_elapsed_time[i]=delta_prior_question_elapsed_time_mean
user_prior_question_elapsed_time_dict['prior_question_elapsed_time'].update({user_id:prior_question_elapsed_time})
 i=i+1
test_df = test_df[test_df['content_type_id'] == 0].reset_index(drop=True)
 test_df = test_df.merge(questions_df.loc[questions_df.index.isin(test_df['content_id'])],
how='left', on='content_id', right_index=True)
 test_df['user_lecture_lv'] = user_lecture_sum / user_lecture_count
test_df['user_lecture_sum'] = user_lecture_sum
test_df['user_interaction_count'] = user_lecture_count
test_df['user_interaction_timestamp_mean'] = test_df['timestamp']/user_lecture_count
test_df['user_correctness'] = user_sum / user_count
test_df['user_uncorrect_count'] =user_count-user_sum
test_df['user_correct_count'] =user_sum
test_df['task_container_correctness'] = task_container_sum / task_container_count
test_df['task_container_cor_count'] = task_container_sum
test_df['task_container_uncor_count'] =task_container_count-task_container_sum
test_df['task_container_std'] = task_container_std
test_df['explanation_mean'] = explanation_sum / explanation_count
test_df['explanation_true_count'] = explanation_sum
test_df['explanation_false_count'] = explanation_count-explanation_sum
test_df['delta_prior_question_elapsed_time'] = delta_prior_question_elapsed_time
test_df["attempt_no"] = test_df[["user_id", "content_id"]].apply(lambda row: get_max_attempt(row["user_id"], row["content_id"]), axis=1)
 test_df["lagtime"]=lagtime
test_df["lagtime2"]=lagtime2
test_df["lagtime3"]=lagtime3
test_df['timestamp']=test_df['timestamp']/(1000*3600)
 test_df.timestamp=test_df.timestamp.astype('float16')
 test_df['lagtime']=test_df['lagtime']/(1000*3600)
 test_df.lagtime=test_df.lagtime.astype('float32')
 test_df['lagtime2']=test_df['lagtime2']/(1000*3600)
 test_df.lagtime2=test_df.lagtime2.astype('float32')
 test_df['lagtime3']=test_df['lagtime3']/(1000*3600)
 test_df.lagtime3=test_df.lagtime3.astype('float32')
 test_df['user_interaction_timestamp_mean']=test_df['user_interaction_timestamp_mean']/(1000*3600)
 test_df.user_interaction_timestamp_mean=test_df.user_interaction_timestamp_mean.astype('float32')
 test_df['user_correctness'].fillna(0.67, inplace=True)
 sub_preds = np.zeros(test_df.shape[0])
 for i, model in enumerate(clfs, 1):
test_preds = model.predict(test_df[features])
 sub_preds += test_preds
o2=sub_preds / len(clfs)
 test_df[target] = 0.5 *np.array(outs)+ 0.5 *np.array(o2)
 env.predict(test_df[['row_id', target]] )<import_modules>
from sklearn.tree import DecisionTreeRegressor
import gc
import random
from tqdm import tqdm
from sklearn.metrics import roc_auc_score
from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split
import seaborn as sns
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import torch
import torch.nn as nn
import torch.nn.utils.rnn as rnn_utils
from torch.autograd import Variable
from torch.utils.data import Dataset, DataLoader<define_variables>
tree_regressor1 = DecisionTreeRegressor(ccp_alpha=0.0, criterion='mse', max_depth=None,
max_features=None, max_leaf_nodes=None,
min_impurity_decrease=0.0, min_impurity_split=None,
min_samples_leaf=1, min_samples_split=2,
min_weight_fraction_leaf=0.0, presort='deprecated',
random_state=6967, splitter='best' )
MAX_SEQ = 100 
<load_from_csv>
tree_regressor2 = DecisionTreeRegressor(ccp_alpha=0.0, criterion='mse', max_depth=None,
max_features=None, max_leaf_nodes=None,
min_impurity_decrease=0.0, min_impurity_split=None,
min_samples_leaf=1, min_samples_split=2,
min_weight_fraction_leaf=0.0, presort='deprecated',
random_state=6967, splitter='best' )
%%time
dtype = {'timestamp': 'int64', 'user_id': 'int32' ,'content_id': 'int16','content_type_id': 'int8','answered_correctly':'int8'}
train_df = pd.read_csv('/kaggle/input/riiid-test-answer-prediction/train.csv', usecols=[1, 2, 3,4,7], dtype=dtype)
 train_df.head()<sort_values>
tree_regressor1.fit(X_train, y_train.ConfirmedCases )
train_df = train_df[train_df.content_type_id == False]
train_df = train_df.sort_values(['timestamp'], ascending=True ).reset_index(drop = True )<count_unique_values>
tree_regressor2.fit(X_train, y_train.Fatalities )
skills = train_df["content_id"].unique()
n_skill = len(skills)
 print("number skills", len(skills))<groupby>
best_best_estimate_1 = tree_regressor1.predict(test_data )
group = train_df[['user_id', 'content_id', 'answered_correctly']].groupby('user_id' ).apply(lambda r:(
 r['content_id'].values,
r['answered_correctly'].values))
del train_df
gc.collect()<define_variables>
best_best_estimate_2 = tree_regressor2.predict(test_data )
class SAKTDataset(Dataset):
def __init__(self, group, n_skill, max_seq=MAX_SEQ):
super(SAKTDataset, self ).__init__()
self.max_seq = max_seq
self.n_skill = n_skill
self.samples = group
self.user_ids = []
for user_id in group.index:
q, qa = group[user_id]
if len(q)< 5:
continue
self.user_ids.append(user_id)
 if len(q)>self.max_seq:
group[user_id] =(q[-self.max_seq:],qa[-self.max_seq:])
 def __len__(self):
return len(self.user_ids)
 def __getitem__(self, index):
user_id = self.user_ids[index]
q_, qa_ = self.samples[user_id]
seq_len = len(q_)
 q = np.zeros(self.max_seq, dtype=int)
 qa = np.zeros(self.max_seq, dtype=int)
 if seq_len >= self.max_seq:
q[:] = q_[-self.max_seq:]
qa[:] = qa_[-self.max_seq:]
else:
q[-seq_len:] = q_
qa[-seq_len:] = qa_
target_id = q[1:]
label = qa[1:]
x = np.zeros(self.max_seq-1, dtype=int)
 x = q[:-1].copy()
x +=(qa[:-1] == 1)* self.n_skill
return x, target_id, label<create_dataframe>
df_sub = pd.DataFrame()
<define_search_model><EOS> 
df_sub['ForecastId'] = Test_id
df_sub['ConfirmedCases'] = np.round(best_best_estimate_1,0)
 df_sub['Fatalities'] = np.round(best_best_estimate_2,0)
 df_sub.to_csv('submission.csv', index=False )