Kaggle competition: COVID19 Global Forecasting (Week 2)
class SmoothBCEwLogits(_WeightedLoss):
def __init__(self, weight=None, reduction='mean', smoothing=0.0):
super().__init__(weight=weight, reduction=reduction)
 self.smoothing = smoothing
self.weight = weight
self.reduction = reduction
@staticmethod
def _smooth(targets:torch.Tensor, n_labels:int, smoothing=0.0):
assert 0 <= smoothing < 1
with torch.no_grad() :
targets = targets *(1.0 - smoothing)+ 0.5 * smoothing
return targets
def forward(self, inputs, targets):
targets = SmoothBCEwLogits._smooth(targets, inputs.size(-1),
self.smoothing)
 loss = F.binary_cross_entropy_with_logits(inputs, targets,self.weight)
 if self.reduction == 'sum':
loss = loss.sum()
elif self.reduction == 'mean':
loss = loss.mean()
return loss<choose_model_class>
%matplotlib inline
class Model(nn.Module):
def __init__(self, num_features, num_targets, hidden_size):
super(Model, self ).__init__()
self.batch_norm1 = nn.BatchNorm1d(num_features)
 self.dropout1 = nn.Dropout(0.2)
 self.dense1 = nn.utils.weight_norm(nn.Linear(num_features, hidden_size))
self.activation1 = torch.nn.PReLU(num_parameters = hidden_size, init = 1.0)
 self.batch_norm2 = nn.BatchNorm1d(hidden_size)
 self.dropout2 = nn.Dropout(0.3)
 self.dense2 = nn.utils.weight_norm(nn.Linear(hidden_size, hidden_size))
self.activation2 = torch.nn.PReLU(num_parameters = hidden_size, init = 0.25)
 self.batch_norm3 = nn.BatchNorm1d(hidden_size)
 self.dropout3 = nn.Dropout(0.25)
 self.dense3 = nn.utils.weight_norm(nn.Linear(hidden_size, num_targets))
def recalibrate_layer(self, layer):
if(torch.isnan(layer.weight_v ).sum() > 0):
print('recalibrate layer.weight_v')
 layer.weight_v = torch.nn.Parameter(torch.where(torch.isnan(layer.weight_v), torch.zeros_like(layer.weight_v), layer.weight_v))
layer.weight_v = torch.nn.Parameter(layer.weight_v + 1e-7)
 if(torch.isnan(layer.weight ).sum() > 0):
print('recalibrate layer.weight')
 layer.weight = torch.where(torch.isnan(layer.weight), torch.zeros_like(layer.weight), layer.weight)
 layer.weight += 1e-7
def forward(self, x):
x = self.batch_norm1(x)
 x = self.dropout1(x)
 self.recalibrate_layer(self.dense1)
 x = self.activation1(self.dense1(x))
x = self.batch_norm2(x)
 x = self.dropout2(x)
 self.recalibrate_layer(self.dense2)
 x = self.activation2(self.dense2(x))
x = self.batch_norm3(x)
 x = self.dropout3(x)
 self.recalibrate_layer(self.dense3)
 x = self.dense3(x)
 return x<feature_engineering>
filename = ".. /input/covid19-global-forecasting-week-2/train.csv"
dt = pd.read_csv(filename)
def process_data(data):
data = pd.get_dummies(data, columns=['cp_time','cp_dose'])
 return data<define_variables>
series = read_csv('.. /input/covid19-global-forecasting-week-2/train.csv', header=0, index_col=0, parse_dates=True, squeeze=True)
 series.plot()
pyplot.show()
feature_cols = [c for c in process_data(folds ).columns if c not in target_cols]
feature_cols = [c for c in feature_cols if c not in ['kfold','sig_id']]
len(feature_cols )<define_variables>
filename = ".. /input/submission/submission.csv"
df = pd.read_csv(filename)
DEVICE =('cuda' if torch.cuda.is_available() else 'cpu')
 EPOCHS = 25
BATCH_SIZE = 512
LEARNING_RATE = 1e-3
WEIGHT_DECAY = 1e-5
NFOLDS = 10
EARLY_STOPPING_STEPS = 25
EARLY_STOP = True
num_features=len(feature_cols)
 num_targets=len(target_cols)
 hidden_size=2048<prepare_x_and_y>
series = read_csv('.. /input/submission/submission.csv', header=0, index_col=0, parse_dates=True, squeeze=True)
 series.plot()
pyplot.show()
def run_training(fold, seed):
seed_everything(seed)
 train = process_data(folds)
 test_ = process_data(test)
 trn_idx = train[train['kfold'] != fold].index
val_idx = train[train['kfold'] == fold].index
train_df = train[train['kfold'] != fold].reset_index(drop=True)
 valid_df = train[train['kfold'] == fold].reset_index(drop=True)
 x_train, y_train = train_df[feature_cols].values, train_df[target_cols].values
x_valid, y_valid = valid_df[feature_cols].values, valid_df[target_cols].values
train_dataset = MoADataset(x_train, y_train)
 valid_dataset = MoADataset(x_valid, y_valid)
 trainloader = torch.utils.data.DataLoader(train_dataset, batch_size=BATCH_SIZE, shuffle=True)
 validloader = torch.utils.data.DataLoader(valid_dataset, batch_size=BATCH_SIZE, shuffle=False)
 model = Model(
 num_features=num_features,
num_targets=num_targets,
hidden_size=hidden_size, 
)
 model.to(DEVICE)
 optimizer = torch.optim.Adam(model.parameters() , lr=LEARNING_RATE, weight_decay=WEIGHT_DECAY)
 scheduler = optim.lr_scheduler.OneCycleLR(optimizer=optimizer, pct_start=0.1, div_factor=1e3,
max_lr=1e-2, epochs=EPOCHS, steps_per_epoch=len(trainloader))
loss_fn = nn.BCEWithLogitsLoss()
loss_tr = SmoothBCEwLogits(smoothing =0.0005)
 early_stopping_steps = EARLY_STOPPING_STEPS
early_step = 0
oof = np.zeros(( len(train), target.iloc[:, 1:].shape[1]))
best_loss = np.inf
for epoch in range(EPOCHS):
train_loss = train_fn(model, optimizer,scheduler, loss_tr, trainloader, DEVICE)
 print(f"FOLD: {fold}, EPOCH: {epoch}, train_loss: {train_loss}")
 valid_loss, valid_preds = valid_fn(model, loss_fn, validloader, DEVICE)
 print(f"FOLD: {fold}, EPOCH: {epoch}, valid_loss: {valid_loss}")
 if valid_loss < best_loss:
best_loss = valid_loss
oof[val_idx] = valid_preds
torch.save(model.state_dict() , f"FOLD{fold}_.pth")
 elif(EARLY_STOP == True):
early_step += 1
if(early_step >= early_stopping_steps):
break
x_test = test_[feature_cols].values
testdataset = TestDataset(x_test)
 testloader = torch.utils.data.DataLoader(testdataset, batch_size=BATCH_SIZE, shuffle=False)
 model = Model(
 num_features=num_features,
num_targets=num_targets,
hidden_size=hidden_size, 
)
 model.load_state_dict(torch.load(f"FOLD{fold}_.pth"))
model.to(DEVICE)
 predictions = np.zeros(( len(test_), target.iloc[:, 1:].shape[1]))
predictions = inference_fn(model, testloader, DEVICE)
 return oof, predictions<categorify>
series = read_csv('.. /input/submission/submission.csv', header=0, index_col=0, parse_dates=True, squeeze=True)
 lag_plot(series )
def run_k_fold(NFOLDS, seed):
oof = np.zeros(( len(train), len(target_cols)))
 predictions = np.zeros(( len(test), len(target_cols)))
 for fold in range(NFOLDS):
oof_, pred_ = run_training(fold, seed)
 predictions += pred_ / NFOLDS
oof += oof_
return oof, predictions<feature_engineering>
Submission.to_csv('submission.csv',index=False )