Kaggle competition: COVID19 Global Forecasting (Week 2)
<SOS> metric: MCRMSLE Kaggle data source: covid19-global-forecasting-(week-2)<merge>
%matplotlib inline
InteractiveShell.ast_node_interactivity = "all"
pd.set_option('display.max_columns', 99)
 pd.set_option('display.max_rows', 99)
for i in ['middle','low_normal','high','low_action']:
tmp = previous[(previous['NAME_CONTRACT_TYPE'] == 'Consumer loans')&(previous['NAME_YIELD_GROUP'] == i)]
for df in [train,test]:
tmp1 = tmp.groupby(['SK_ID_CURR'])['SK_ID_PREV'].count().reset_index()
tmp1.columns = ['SK_ID_CURR','des']
tmp_merge = df[['SK_ID_CURR']]
tmp_merge = tmp_merge.merge(tmp1, on=['SK_ID_CURR'], how='left')
 df['count_' + str(i)+ '_v1'] = tmp_merge['des'].fillna(0 )<feature_engineering>
plt.rcParams['figure.figsize'] = [16, 10]
plt.rcParams['font.size'] = 14
sns.set_palette(sns.color_palette('tab20', 20))
for df in [train,test]:
df['tmp'] = df[['count_middle_v1','count_low_normal_v1','count_high_v1','count_low_action_v1']].sum(axis=1)
 for i in ['middle','low_normal','high','low_action']:
df['ratio_' + i +"_v1"] = df['count_' + i + "_v1"]/df['tmp'] 
<groupby>
COMP = '.. /input/covid19-global-forecasting-week-2'
DATEFORMAT = '%Y-%m-%d'
def get_comp_data(COMP):
train = pd.read_csv(f'{COMP}/train.csv')
 test = pd.read_csv(f'{COMP}/test.csv')
 submission = pd.read_csv(f'{COMP}/submission.csv')
 print(train.shape, test.shape, submission.shape)
 train['Country_Region'] = train['Country_Region'].str.replace(',', '')
 test['Country_Region'] = test['Country_Region'].str.replace(',', '')
 train['Location'] = train['Country_Region'] + '-' + train['Province_State'].fillna('')
 test['Location'] = test['Country_Region'] + '-' + test['Province_State'].fillna('')
 train['LogConfirmed'] = to_log(train.ConfirmedCases)
 train['LogFatalities'] = to_log(train.Fatalities)
 train = train.drop(columns=['Province_State'])
 test = test.drop(columns=['Province_State'])
 country_codes = pd.read_csv('.. /input/covid19-metadata/country_codes.csv', keep_default_na=False)
 train = train.merge(country_codes, on='Country_Region', how='left')
 test = test.merge(country_codes, on='Country_Region', how='left')
 train['DateTime'] = pd.to_datetime(train['Date'])
 test['DateTime'] = pd.to_datetime(test['Date'])
 return train, test, submission
def process_each_location(df):
dfs = []
for loc, df in tqdm(df.groupby('Location')) :
df = df.sort_values(by='Date')
 df['Fatalities'] = df['Fatalities'].cummax()
df['ConfirmedCases'] = df['ConfirmedCases'].cummax()
df['LogFatalities'] = df['LogFatalities'].cummax()
df['LogConfirmed'] = df['LogConfirmed'].cummax()
df['LogConfirmedNextDay'] = df['LogConfirmed'].shift(-1)
 df['ConfirmedNextDay'] = df['ConfirmedCases'].shift(-1)
 df['DateNextDay'] = df['Date'].shift(-1)
 df['LogFatalitiesNextDay'] = df['LogFatalities'].shift(-1)
 df['FatalitiesNextDay'] = df['Fatalities'].shift(-1)
 df['LogConfirmedDelta'] = df['LogConfirmedNextDay'] - df['LogConfirmed']
df['ConfirmedDelta'] = df['ConfirmedNextDay'] - df['ConfirmedCases']
df['LogFatalitiesDelta'] = df['LogFatalitiesNextDay'] - df['LogFatalities']
df['FatalitiesDelta'] = df['FatalitiesNextDay'] - df['Fatalities']
dfs.append(df)
 return pd.concat(dfs)
 def add_days(d, k):
return dt.datetime.strptime(d, DATEFORMAT)+ dt.timedelta(days=k)
 def to_log(x):
return np.log(x + 1)
 def to_exp(x):
return np.exp(x)- 1
previous['tmp'] =(previous['AMT_ANNUITY'] * previous['CNT_PAYMENT'])/previous['AMT_CREDIT']
tmp = previous[(previous['NAME_CONTRACT_TYPE'] == 'Cash loans')&(previous['NAME_CONTRACT_STATUS'] != 'Approved')].groupby(['SK_ID_CURR'])['tmp']\ 
.agg({"returns": [np.min, np.max,np.mean]})\ 
.reset_index()
tmp.columns = ['SK_ID_CURR','des1','des2','des3']
for df in [train,test]:
tmp_merge = df[['SK_ID_CURR']]
tmp_merge = tmp_merge.merge(tmp, on=['SK_ID_CURR'], how='left')
 df['min_interest'] = tmp_merge['des1']
df['max_interest'] = tmp_merge['des2']
df['mean_interest'] = tmp_merge['des3']
tmp = previous[(previous['NAME_CONTRACT_TYPE'] == 'Consumer loans')&(previous['NAME_CONTRACT_STATUS'] != 'Approved')].groupby(['SK_ID_CURR'])['tmp']\ 
.agg({"returns": [np.min, np.max,np.mean]})\ 
.reset_index()
tmp.columns = ['SK_ID_CURR','des1','des2','des3']
for df in [train,test]:
tmp_merge = df[['SK_ID_CURR']]
tmp_merge = tmp_merge.merge(tmp, on=['SK_ID_CURR'], how='left')
 df['min_interest_v1'] = tmp_merge['des1']
df['max_interest_v1'] = tmp_merge['des2']
df['mean_interest_v1'] = tmp_merge['des3']<merge>
train = train.sort_values(by='Date')
 countries_latest_state = train[train['Date'] == TRAIN_END].groupby([
'Country_Region', 'continent', 'geo_region', 'country_iso_code_3'] ).sum() [[
'ConfirmedCases', 'Fatalities']].reset_index()
countries_latest_state['Log10Confirmed'] = np.log10(countries_latest_state.ConfirmedCases + 1)
 countries_latest_state['Log10Fatalities'] = np.log10(countries_latest_state.Fatalities + 1)
 countries_latest_state = countries_latest_state.sort_values(by='Fatalities', ascending=False)
 countries_latest_state.to_csv('countries_latest_state.csv', index=False)
 countries_latest_state.shape
countries_latest_state.head()
tmp = previous.groupby(['SK_ID_CURR'])['DAYS_FIRST_DRAWING']\ 
.agg({"returns": [np.min, np.max,np.mean]})\ 
.reset_index()
tmp.columns = ['SK_ID_CURR','des1','des2','des3']
for df in [train,test]:
tmp_merge = df[['SK_ID_CURR']]
tmp_merge = tmp_merge.merge(tmp, on=['SK_ID_CURR'], how='left')
 df['min_firstdraw'] = tmp_merge['des1']
df['max_firstdraw'] = tmp_merge['des2']
df['mean_firstdraw'] = tmp_merge['des3']<groupby>
latest_loc = train[train['Date'] == TRAIN_END][['Location', 'ConfirmedCases', 'Fatalities']]
max_loc = train.groupby(['Location'])[['ConfirmedCases', 'Fatalities']].max().reset_index()
check = pd.merge(latest_loc, max_loc, on='Location')
 np.mean(check.ConfirmedCases_x == check.ConfirmedCases_y)
 np.mean(check.Fatalities_x == check.Fatalities_y)
 check[check.Fatalities_x != check.Fatalities_y]
check[check.ConfirmedCases_x != check.ConfirmedCases_y]
previous['tmp'] = previous['DAYS_FIRST_DRAWING'] - previous['DAYS_DECISION']
tmp = previous.groupby(['SK_ID_CURR'])['tmp']\ 
.agg({"returns": [np.min, np.max,np.mean]})\ 
.reset_index()
tmp.columns = ['SK_ID_CURR','des1','des2','des3']
for df in [train,test]:
tmp_merge = df[['SK_ID_CURR']]
tmp_merge = tmp_merge.merge(tmp, on=['SK_ID_CURR'], how='left')
 df['min_firstdraw_decision'] = tmp_merge['des1']
df['max_firstdraw_decision'] = tmp_merge['des2']
df['mean_firstdraw_decision'] = tmp_merge['des3']<groupby>
regional_progress = train_clean.groupby(['DateTime', 'continent'] ).sum() [['ConfirmedCases', 'Fatalities']].reset_index()
regional_progress['Log10Confirmed'] = np.log10(regional_progress.ConfirmedCases + 1)
 regional_progress['Log10Fatalities'] = np.log10(regional_progress.Fatalities + 1)
 regional_progress = regional_progress[regional_progress.continent != '
previous['tmp'] = previous['DAYS_FIRST_DUE'] - previous['DAYS_FIRST_DRAWING']
tmp = previous.groupby(['SK_ID_CURR'])['tmp']\ 
.agg({"returns": [np.min, np.max,np.mean]})\ 
.reset_index()
tmp.columns = ['SK_ID_CURR','des1','des2','des3']
for df in [train,test]:
tmp_merge = df[['SK_ID_CURR']]
tmp_merge = tmp_merge.merge(tmp, on=['SK_ID_CURR'], how='left')
 df['min_firstdraw_firstdue'] = tmp_merge['des1']
df['max_firstdraw_firstdue'] = tmp_merge['des2']
df['mean_firstdraw_firstdue'] = tmp_merge['des3']<groupby>
countries_0301 = country_progress[country_progress.Date == '2020-03-01'][[
'Country_Region', 'ConfirmedCases', 'Fatalities']]
countries_0331 = country_progress[country_progress.Date == '2020-03-31'][[
'Country_Region', 'ConfirmedCases', 'Fatalities']]
countries_in_march = pd.merge(countries_0301, countries_0331, on='Country_Region', suffixes=['_0301', '_0331'])
 countries_in_march['IncreaseInMarch'] = countries_in_march.ConfirmedCases_0331 /(countries_in_march.ConfirmedCases_0301 + 1)
 countries_in_march = countries_in_march[countries_in_march.ConfirmedCases_0331 > 200].sort_values(
 by='IncreaseInMarch', ascending=False)
 countries_in_march.tail(15 )
previous['tmp'] = previous['DAYS_LAST_DUE'] - previous['DAYS_FIRST_DRAWING']
tmp = previous.groupby(['SK_ID_CURR'])['tmp']\ 
.agg({"returns": [np.min, np.max,np.mean]})\ 
.reset_index()
tmp.columns = ['SK_ID_CURR','des1','des2','des3']
for df in [train,test]:
tmp_merge = df[['SK_ID_CURR']]
tmp_merge = tmp_merge.merge(tmp, on=['SK_ID_CURR'], how='left')
 df['min_firstdraw_lastdue'] = tmp_merge['des1']
df['max_firstdraw_lastdue'] = tmp_merge['des2']
df['mean_firstdraw_lastdue'] = tmp_merge['des3']<merge>
train_clean['Geo
latest = train_clean[train_clean.Date == '2020-03-31'][[
'Geo
daily_confirmed_deltas = train_clean[train_clean.Date >= '2020-03-17'].pivot(
 'Geo
daily_confirmed_deltas = latest.merge(daily_confirmed_deltas, on='Geo
daily_confirmed_deltas.shape
daily_confirmed_deltas.head()
daily_confirmed_deltas.to_csv('daily_confirmed_deltas.csv', index=False )
tmp = bureau[(bureau['CREDIT_ACTIVE'] == "Active")].groupby(['SK_ID_CURR'])['SK_ID_BUREAU'].count().reset_index()
tmp.columns = ['SK_ID_CURR','des']
for df in [train,test]:
tmp_merge = df[['SK_ID_CURR']]
tmp_merge = tmp_merge.merge(tmp, on=['SK_ID_CURR'], how='left')
 df['count_active_bureau'] = tmp_merge['des'].fillna(0)
 tmp = bureau[bureau['CREDIT_ACTIVE'] != "Active"].groupby(['SK_ID_CURR'])['SK_ID_BUREAU'].count().reset_index()
tmp.columns = ['SK_ID_CURR','des']
for df in [train,test]:
tmp_merge = df[['SK_ID_CURR']]
tmp_merge = tmp_merge.merge(tmp, on=['SK_ID_CURR'], how='left')
 df['count_closed_bureau'] = tmp_merge['des'].fillna(0 )<merge>
deltas = train_clean[np.logical_and(
 train_clean.LogConfirmed > 2,
~train_clean.Location.str.startswith('China')
)].dropna().sort_values(by='LogConfirmedDelta', ascending=False)
 deltas['start'] = deltas['LogConfirmed'].round(0)
 confirmed_deltas = pd.concat([
deltas.groupby('start')[['LogConfirmedDelta']].mean() ,
deltas.groupby('start')[['LogConfirmedDelta']].std() ,
deltas.groupby('start')[['LogConfirmedDelta']].count()
], axis=1)
 deltas.mean()
confirmed_deltas.columns = ['avg', 'std', 'cnt']
confirmed_deltas
confirmed_deltas.to_csv('confirmed_deltas.csv' )
tmp = bureau[(bureau['CREDIT_TYPE'] == "Consumer credit")].groupby(['SK_ID_CURR'])['SK_ID_BUREAU'].count().reset_index()
tmp.columns = ['SK_ID_CURR','des']
for df in [train,test]:
tmp_merge = df[['SK_ID_CURR']]
tmp_merge = tmp_merge.merge(tmp, on=['SK_ID_CURR'], how='left')
 df['count_active_bureau_v2'] = tmp_merge['des'].fillna(0)
 tmp = bureau[(bureau['CREDIT_ACTIVE'] != "Active")&(bureau['CREDIT_TYPE'] == "Credit card")].groupby(['SK_ID_CURR'])['SK_ID_BUREAU'].count().reset_index()
tmp.columns = ['SK_ID_CURR','des']
for df in [train,test]:
tmp_merge = df[['SK_ID_CURR']]
tmp_merge = tmp_merge.merge(tmp, on=['SK_ID_CURR'], how='left')
 df['count_closed_bureau_v2'] = tmp_merge['des'].fillna(0 )<merge>
DECAY = 0.93
DECAY ** 7, DECAY ** 14, DECAY ** 21, DECAY ** 28
confirmed_deltas = train.groupby(['Location', 'Country_Region', 'continent'])[[
'Id']].count().reset_index()
GLOBAL_DELTA = 0.11
confirmed_deltas['DELTA'] = GLOBAL_DELTA
confirmed_deltas.loc[confirmed_deltas.continent=='Africa', 'DELTA'] = 0.14
confirmed_deltas.loc[confirmed_deltas.continent=='Oceania', 'DELTA'] = 0.06
confirmed_deltas.loc[confirmed_deltas.Country_Region=='Korea South', 'DELTA'] = 0.011
confirmed_deltas.loc[confirmed_deltas.Country_Region=='US', 'DELTA'] = 0.15
confirmed_deltas.loc[confirmed_deltas.Country_Region=='China', 'DELTA'] = 0.01
confirmed_deltas.loc[confirmed_deltas.Country_Region=='Japan', 'DELTA'] = 0.05
confirmed_deltas.loc[confirmed_deltas.Country_Region=='Singapore', 'DELTA'] = 0.05
confirmed_deltas.loc[confirmed_deltas.Country_Region=='Taiwan*', 'DELTA'] = 0.05
confirmed_deltas.loc[confirmed_deltas.Country_Region=='Switzerland', 'DELTA'] = 0.05
confirmed_deltas.loc[confirmed_deltas.Country_Region=='Norway', 'DELTA'] = 0.05
confirmed_deltas.loc[confirmed_deltas.Country_Region=='Iceland', 'DELTA'] = 0.05
confirmed_deltas.loc[confirmed_deltas.Country_Region=='Austria', 'DELTA'] = 0.06
confirmed_deltas.loc[confirmed_deltas.Country_Region=='Italy', 'DELTA'] = 0.04
confirmed_deltas.loc[confirmed_deltas.Country_Region=='Spain', 'DELTA'] = 0.08
confirmed_deltas.loc[confirmed_deltas.Country_Region=='Portugal', 'DELTA'] = 0.12
confirmed_deltas.loc[confirmed_deltas.Country_Region=='Israel', 'DELTA'] = 0.12
confirmed_deltas.loc[confirmed_deltas.Country_Region=='Iran', 'DELTA'] = 0.08
confirmed_deltas.loc[confirmed_deltas.Country_Region=='Germany', 'DELTA'] = 0.07
confirmed_deltas.loc[confirmed_deltas.Country_Region=='Malaysia', 'DELTA'] = 0.06
confirmed_deltas.loc[confirmed_deltas.Country_Region=='Russia', 'DELTA'] = 0.18
confirmed_deltas.loc[confirmed_deltas.Country_Region=='Ukraine', 'DELTA'] = 0.18
confirmed_deltas.loc[confirmed_deltas.Country_Region=='Brazil', 'DELTA'] = 0.12
confirmed_deltas.loc[confirmed_deltas.Country_Region=='Turkey', 'DELTA'] = 0.18
confirmed_deltas.loc[confirmed_deltas.Country_Region=='Philippines', 'DELTA'] = 0.18
confirmed_deltas.loc[confirmed_deltas.Location=='France-', 'DELTA'] = 0.1
confirmed_deltas.loc[confirmed_deltas.Location=='United Kingdom-', 'DELTA'] = 0.12
confirmed_deltas.loc[confirmed_deltas.Location=='Diamond Princess-', 'DELTA'] = 0.00
confirmed_deltas.loc[confirmed_deltas.Location=='China-Hong Kong', 'DELTA'] = 0.08
confirmed_deltas.loc[confirmed_deltas.Location=='San Marino-', 'DELTA'] = 0.03
confirmed_deltas.shape, confirmed_deltas.DELTA.mean()
confirmed_deltas[confirmed_deltas.DELTA != GLOBAL_DELTA].shape, confirmed_deltas[confirmed_deltas.DELTA != GLOBAL_DELTA].DELTA.mean()
confirmed_deltas[confirmed_deltas.DELTA != GLOBAL_DELTA]
confirmed_deltas.describe()
tmp = bureau[(~bureau['CREDIT_TYPE'].isin(["Credit card","Consumer credit"])) ].groupby(['SK_ID_CURR'])['SK_ID_BUREAU'].count().reset_index()
tmp.columns = ['SK_ID_CURR','des']
for df in [train,test]:
tmp_merge = df[['SK_ID_CURR']]
tmp_merge = tmp_merge.merge(tmp, on=['SK_ID_CURR'], how='left')
 df['count_active_bureau_v3'] = tmp_merge['des'].fillna(0)
 tmp = bureau[(bureau['CREDIT_ACTIVE'] != "Active")&(~bureau['CREDIT_TYPE'].isin(["Credit card","Consumer credit"])) ].groupby(['SK_ID_CURR'])['SK_ID_BUREAU'].count().reset_index()
tmp.columns = ['SK_ID_CURR','des']
for df in [train,test]:
tmp_merge = df[['SK_ID_CURR']]
tmp_merge = tmp_merge.merge(tmp, on=['SK_ID_CURR'], how='left')
 df['count_closed_bureau_v3'] = tmp_merge['des'].fillna(0 )<merge>
daily_log_confirmed = train_clean.pivot('Location', 'Date', 'LogConfirmed' ).reset_index()
daily_log_confirmed = daily_log_confirmed.sort_values(TRAIN_END, ascending=False)
 daily_log_confirmed.to_csv('daily_log_confirmed.csv', index=False)
 for i, d in tqdm(enumerate(pd.date_range(add_days(TRAIN_END, 1), add_days(TEST_END, 1)))) :
new_day = str(d ).split(' ')[0]
last_day = dt.datetime.strptime(new_day, DATEFORMAT)- dt.timedelta(days=1)
 last_day = last_day.strftime(DATEFORMAT)
 for loc in confirmed_deltas.Location.values:
confirmed_delta = confirmed_deltas.loc[confirmed_deltas.Location == loc, 'DELTA'].values[0]
daily_log_confirmed.loc[daily_log_confirmed.Location == loc, new_day] = daily_log_confirmed.loc[daily_log_confirmed.Location == loc, last_day] + \
confirmed_delta * DECAY ** i
bureau['AMT_CREDIT_SUM'].replace(0, np.nan, inplace = True)
 tmp = bureau[(bureau['CREDIT_ACTIVE'] == "Active")&(bureau['CREDIT_TYPE'] == "Consumer credit")].groupby(['SK_ID_CURR'])['AMT_CREDIT_SUM'].agg({"returns": [np.min, np.max,np.mean, np.sum]})\ 
.reset_index()
tmp.columns = ['SK_ID_CURR','des1','des2','des3', 'des4']
for df in [train,test]:
tmp_merge = df[['SK_ID_CURR']]
tmp_merge = tmp_merge.merge(tmp, on=['SK_ID_CURR'], how='left')
 df['min_active_credit_bureau'] = tmp_merge['des1']
df['max_active_credit_bureau'] = tmp_merge['des2']
df['mean_active_credit_bureau'] = tmp_merge['des3']
df['sum_active_credit_bureau'] = tmp_merge['des4']
tmp = bureau[(bureau['CREDIT_ACTIVE'] != "Active")&(bureau['CREDIT_TYPE'] == "Consumer credit")].groupby(['SK_ID_CURR'])['AMT_CREDIT_SUM'].agg({"returns": [np.min, np.max,np.mean, np.sum]})\ 
.reset_index()
tmp.columns = ['SK_ID_CURR','des1','des2','des3', 'des4']
for df in [train,test]:
tmp_merge = df[['SK_ID_CURR']]
tmp_merge = tmp_merge.merge(tmp, on=['SK_ID_CURR'], how='left')
 df['min_closed_credit_bureau'] = tmp_merge['des1']
df['max_closed_credit_bureau'] = tmp_merge['des2']
df['mean_closed_credit_bureau'] = tmp_merge['des3']
df['sum_closed_credit_bureau'] = tmp_merge['des4']<merge>
train_clean['Geo
latest = train_clean[train_clean.Date == TRAIN_END][[
'Geo
daily_death_deltas = train_clean[train_clean.Date >= '2020-03-17'].pivot(
 'Geo
daily_death_deltas = latest.merge(daily_death_deltas, on='Geo
daily_death_deltas.shape
daily_death_deltas.head()
daily_death_deltas.to_csv('daily_death_deltas.csv', index=False )
bureau['AMT_CREDIT_SUM'].replace(0, np.nan, inplace = True)
 tmp = bureau[(bureau['CREDIT_TYPE'] == "Credit card")].groupby(['SK_ID_CURR'])['AMT_CREDIT_SUM'].agg({"returns": [np.min, np.max,np.mean, np.sum]})\ 
.reset_index()
tmp.columns = ['SK_ID_CURR','des1','des2','des3', 'des4']
for df in [train,test]:
tmp_merge = df[['SK_ID_CURR']]
tmp_merge = tmp_merge.merge(tmp, on=['SK_ID_CURR'], how='left')
 df['min_active_credit_bureau_v1'] = tmp_merge['des1']
df['max_active_credit_bureau_v1'] = tmp_merge['des2']
df['mean_active_credit_bureau_v1'] = tmp_merge['des3']
df['sum_active_credit_bureau_v1'] = tmp_merge['des4'] 
<merge>
death_deltas = train.groupby(['Location', 'Country_Region', 'continent'])[[
'Id']].count().reset_index()
GLOBAL_DELTA = 0.11
death_deltas['DELTA'] = GLOBAL_DELTA
death_deltas.loc[death_deltas.Country_Region=='China', 'DELTA'] = 0.005
death_deltas.loc[death_deltas.continent=='Oceania', 'DELTA'] = 0.08
death_deltas.loc[death_deltas.Country_Region=='Korea South', 'DELTA'] = 0.04
death_deltas.loc[death_deltas.Country_Region=='Japan', 'DELTA'] = 0.04
death_deltas.loc[death_deltas.Country_Region=='Singapore', 'DELTA'] = 0.05
death_deltas.loc[death_deltas.Country_Region=='Taiwan*', 'DELTA'] = 0.06
death_deltas.loc[death_deltas.Country_Region=='US', 'DELTA'] = 0.17
death_deltas.loc[death_deltas.Country_Region=='Switzerland', 'DELTA'] = 0.15
death_deltas.loc[death_deltas.Country_Region=='Norway', 'DELTA'] = 0.15
death_deltas.loc[death_deltas.Country_Region=='Iceland', 'DELTA'] = 0.01
death_deltas.loc[death_deltas.Country_Region=='Austria', 'DELTA'] = 0.14
death_deltas.loc[death_deltas.Country_Region=='Italy', 'DELTA'] = 0.07
death_deltas.loc[death_deltas.Country_Region=='Spain', 'DELTA'] = 0.1
death_deltas.loc[death_deltas.Country_Region=='Portugal', 'DELTA'] = 0.13
death_deltas.loc[death_deltas.Country_Region=='Israel', 'DELTA'] = 0.16
death_deltas.loc[death_deltas.Country_Region=='Iran', 'DELTA'] = 0.06
death_deltas.loc[death_deltas.Country_Region=='Germany', 'DELTA'] = 0.14
death_deltas.loc[death_deltas.Country_Region=='Malaysia', 'DELTA'] = 0.14
death_deltas.loc[death_deltas.Country_Region=='Russia', 'DELTA'] = 0.2
death_deltas.loc[death_deltas.Country_Region=='Ukraine', 'DELTA'] = 0.2
death_deltas.loc[death_deltas.Country_Region=='Brazil', 'DELTA'] = 0.2
death_deltas.loc[death_deltas.Country_Region=='Turkey', 'DELTA'] = 0.22
death_deltas.loc[death_deltas.Country_Region=='Philippines', 'DELTA'] = 0.12
death_deltas.loc[death_deltas.Location=='France-', 'DELTA'] = 0.14
death_deltas.loc[death_deltas.Location=='United Kingdom-', 'DELTA'] = 0.14
death_deltas.loc[death_deltas.Location=='Diamond Princess-', 'DELTA'] = 0.00
death_deltas.loc[death_deltas.Location=='China-Hong Kong', 'DELTA'] = 0.01
death_deltas.loc[death_deltas.Location=='San Marino-', 'DELTA'] = 0.05
death_deltas.shape
death_deltas.DELTA.mean()
death_deltas[death_deltas.DELTA != GLOBAL_DELTA].shape
death_deltas[death_deltas.DELTA != GLOBAL_DELTA].DELTA.mean()
death_deltas[death_deltas.DELTA != GLOBAL_DELTA]
death_deltas.describe()
bureau['AMT_CREDIT_SUM'].replace(0, np.nan, inplace = True)
 tmp = bureau[(bureau['CREDIT_TYPE'] == "Car loan")].groupby(['SK_ID_CURR'])['AMT_CREDIT_SUM'].agg({"returns": [np.min, np.max,np.mean, np.sum]})\ 
.reset_index()
tmp.columns = ['SK_ID_CURR','des1','des2','des3', 'des4']
for df in [train,test]:
tmp_merge = df[['SK_ID_CURR']]
tmp_merge = tmp_merge.merge(tmp, on=['SK_ID_CURR'], how='left')
 df['min_active_credit_bureau_v2'] = tmp_merge['des1']
df['max_active_credit_bureau_v2'] = tmp_merge['des2']
df['mean_active_credit_bureau_v2'] = tmp_merge['des3']
df['sum_active_credit_bureau_v2'] = tmp_merge['des4'] 
<merge>
daily_log_deaths = train_clean.pivot('Location', 'Date', 'LogFatalities' ).reset_index()
daily_log_deaths = daily_log_deaths.sort_values(TRAIN_END, ascending=False)
 daily_log_deaths.to_csv('daily_log_deaths.csv', index=False)
 for i, d in tqdm(enumerate(pd.date_range(add_days(TRAIN_END, 1), add_days(TEST_END, 1)))) :
new_day = str(d ).split(' ')[0]
last_day = dt.datetime.strptime(new_day, DATEFORMAT)- dt.timedelta(days=1)
 last_day = last_day.strftime(DATEFORMAT)
 for loc in death_deltas.Location:
death_delta = death_deltas.loc[death_deltas.Location == loc, 'DELTA'].values[0]
daily_log_deaths.loc[daily_log_deaths.Location == loc, new_day] = daily_log_deaths.loc[daily_log_deaths.Location == loc, last_day] + \
death_delta * DECAY ** i
bureau['AMT_CREDIT_SUM'].replace(0, np.nan, inplace = True)
 tmp = bureau[(~bureau['CREDIT_TYPE'].isin(["Credit card","Consumer credit","Car loan"])) ].groupby(['SK_ID_CURR'])['AMT_CREDIT_SUM'].agg({"returns": [np.min, np.max,np.mean, np.sum]})\ 
.reset_index()
tmp.columns = ['SK_ID_CURR','des1','des2','des3', 'des4']
for df in [train,test]:
tmp_merge = df[['SK_ID_CURR']]
tmp_merge = tmp_merge.merge(tmp, on=['SK_ID_CURR'], how='left')
 df['min_active_credit_bureau_v3'] = tmp_merge['des1']
df['max_active_credit_bureau_v3'] = tmp_merge['des2']
df['mean_active_credit_bureau_v3'] = tmp_merge['des3']
df['sum_active_credit_bureau_v3'] = tmp_merge['des4'] 
<merge>
confirmed = []
fatalities = []
for id, d, loc in tqdm(test[['ForecastId', 'Date', 'Location']].values):
c = to_exp(daily_log_confirmed.loc[daily_log_confirmed.Location == loc, d].values[0])
 f = to_exp(daily_log_deaths.loc[daily_log_deaths.Location == loc, d].values[0])
 confirmed.append(c)
 fatalities.append(f )
tmp = bureau.groupby(['SK_ID_CURR'])['AMT_CREDIT_SUM'].agg({"returns": [np.min, np.max,np.mean, np.sum]})\ 
.reset_index()
tmp.columns = ['SK_ID_CURR','des1','des2','des3', 'des4']
for df in [train,test]:
tmp_merge = df[['SK_ID_CURR']]
tmp_merge = tmp_merge.merge(tmp, on=['SK_ID_CURR'], how='left')
 df['min_credit_bureau'] = tmp_merge['des1']
df['max_credit_bureau'] = tmp_merge['des2']
df['mean_credit_bureau'] = tmp_merge['des3']
df['sum_credit_bureau'] = tmp_merge['des4']<merge>
my_submission = test.copy()
my_submission['ConfirmedCases'] = confirmed
my_submission['Fatalities'] = fatalities
my_submission.shape
my_submission.head()
tmp = bureau[(bureau['CREDIT_TYPE'] == "Consumer credit")].groupby(['SK_ID_CURR'])['DAYS_CREDIT_ENDDATE'].agg({"returns": [np.min, np.max,np.mean, np.sum]})\ 
.reset_index()
tmp.columns = ['SK_ID_CURR','des1','des2','des3', 'des4']
for df in [train,test]:
tmp_merge = df[['SK_ID_CURR']]
tmp_merge = tmp_merge.merge(tmp, on=['SK_ID_CURR'], how='left')
 df['min_endate_bureau'] = tmp_merge['des1']
df['max_endate_bureau'] = tmp_merge['des2']
df['mean_endate_bureau'] = tmp_merge['des3']
df['sum_endate_bureau'] = tmp_merge['des4']
tmp = bureau[(~bureau['DAYS_CREDIT_ENDDATE'].isnull())&(( bureau['CREDIT_TYPE'] == "Consumer credit")) ].sort_values(by=['SK_ID_CURR','DAYS_CREDIT_ENDDATE'])
 tmp = tmp.groupby(['SK_ID_CURR'] ).nth(-2 ).reset_index()
tmp = tmp[['SK_ID_CURR','DAYS_CREDIT_ENDDATE']]
tmp.columns = ['SK_ID_CURR','des']
for df in [train,test]:
tmp_merge = df[['SK_ID_CURR']]
tmp_merge = tmp_merge.merge(tmp, on=['SK_ID_CURR'], how='left')
 df['1st_endate_bureau'] = tmp_merge['des']<merge>
my_submission[[
'ForecastId', 'ConfirmedCases', 'Fatalities'
]].to_csv('submission.csv', index=False)
 print(DECAY)
 my_submission.head()
my_submission.tail()
my_submission.shape
<merge><EOS> 
end = dt.datetime.now()
print('Finished', end,(end - start ).seconds, 's' )