Kaggle competition: COVID19 Global Forecasting (Week 4)
embed_size = 300
max_features = 95000
maxlen = 70<import_modules>
train_df = pd.read_csv(sorted(paths)[2])
 test_df = pd.read_csv(sorted(paths)[1])
 submission = pd.read_csv(sorted(paths)[0] )
import os
import time
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
from tqdm import tqdm
import math
from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split
from sklearn import metrics
from keras.preprocessing.text import Tokenizer
from keras.preprocessing.sequence import pad_sequences
from keras.layers import Dense, Input, CuDNNLSTM, Embedding, Dropout, Activation, CuDNNGRU, Conv1D
from keras.layers import Bidirectional, GlobalMaxPool1D, GlobalMaxPooling1D, GlobalAveragePooling1D
from keras.layers import Input, Embedding, Dense, Conv2D, MaxPool2D, concatenate
from keras.layers import Reshape, Flatten, Concatenate, Dropout, SpatialDropout1D
from keras.optimizers import Adam
from keras.models import Model
from keras import backend as K
from keras.engine.topology import Layer
from keras import initializers, regularizers, constraints, optimizers, layers 
<load_from_csv>
from statsmodels.tsa.statespace.sarimax import SARIMAX
def load_and_prec() :
train_df = pd.read_csv(".. /input/train.csv")
 test_df = pd.read_csv(".. /input/test.csv")
 print("Train shape : ",train_df.shape)
 print("Test shape : ",test_df.shape)
 train_df, val_df = train_test_split(train_df, test_size=0.08, random_state=2018)
 train_X = train_df["question_text"].fillna("_
val_X = val_df["question_text"].fillna("_
test_X = test_df["question_text"].fillna("_
tokenizer = Tokenizer(num_words=max_features)
 tokenizer.fit_on_texts(list(train_X))
train_X = tokenizer.texts_to_sequences(train_X)
 val_X = tokenizer.texts_to_sequences(val_X)
 test_X = tokenizer.texts_to_sequences(test_X)
 train_X = pad_sequences(train_X, maxlen=maxlen)
 val_X = pad_sequences(val_X, maxlen=maxlen)
 test_X = pad_sequences(test_X, maxlen=maxlen)
 train_y = train_df['target'].values
val_y = val_df['target'].values
np.random.seed(2018)
 trn_idx = np.random.permutation(len(train_X))
val_idx = np.random.permutation(len(val_X))
train_X = train_X[trn_idx]
val_X = val_X[val_idx]
train_y = train_y[trn_idx]
val_y = val_y[val_idx]
return train_X, val_X, test_X, train_y, val_y, tokenizer.word_index<statistical_test>
count_len = len(train_df[train_df['Country_Region'] == 'Russia'])
 train_cc = []
train_f = []
count = 0
for i in range(int(len(train_df)/ count_len)) :
train_cc.append(train_df.ConfirmedCases[count:count+count_len].values.tolist())
 train_f.append(train_df.Fatalities[count:count+count_len].values.tolist())
 count += count_len
def load_glove(word_index):
EMBEDDING_FILE = '.. /input/embeddings/glove.840B.300d/glove.840B.300d.txt'
def get_coefs(word,*arr): return word, np.asarray(arr, dtype='float32')
 embeddings_index = dict(get_coefs(*o.split(" ")) for o in open(EMBEDDING_FILE))
all_embs = np.stack(embeddings_index.values())
 emb_mean,emb_std = all_embs.mean() , all_embs.std()
embed_size = all_embs.shape[1]
nb_words = min(max_features, len(word_index))
embedding_matrix = np.random.normal(emb_mean, emb_std,(nb_words, embed_size))
for word, i in word_index.items() :
if i >= max_features: continue
embedding_vector = embeddings_index.get(word)
 if embedding_vector is not None: embedding_matrix[i] = embedding_vector
print("loaded glove")
 return embedding_matrix
def load_fasttext(word_index):
EMBEDDING_FILE = '.. /input/embeddings/wiki-news-300d-1M/wiki-news-300d-1M.vec'
def get_coefs(word,*arr): return word, np.asarray(arr, dtype='float32')
 embeddings_index = dict(get_coefs(*o.split(" ")) for o in open(EMBEDDING_FILE)if len(o)>100)
 all_embs = np.stack(embeddings_index.values())
 emb_mean,emb_std = all_embs.mean() , all_embs.std()
embed_size = all_embs.shape[1]
nb_words = min(max_features, len(word_index))
embedding_matrix = np.random.normal(emb_mean, emb_std,(nb_words, embed_size))
for word, i in word_index.items() :
if i >= max_features: continue
embedding_vector = embeddings_index.get(word)
 if embedding_vector is not None: embedding_matrix[i] = embedding_vector
print("loaded fasttext")
 return embedding_matrix
def load_para(word_index):
EMBEDDING_FILE = '.. /input/embeddings/paragram_300_sl999/paragram_300_sl999.txt'
def get_coefs(word,*arr): return word, np.asarray(arr, dtype='float32')
 embeddings_index = dict(get_coefs(*o.split(" ")) for o in open(EMBEDDING_FILE, encoding="utf8", errors='ignore')if len(o)>100)
 all_embs = np.stack(embeddings_index.values())
 emb_mean,emb_std = all_embs.mean() , all_embs.std()
embed_size = all_embs.shape[1]
nb_words = min(max_features, len(word_index))
embedding_matrix = np.random.normal(emb_mean, emb_std,(nb_words, embed_size))
for word, i in word_index.items() :
if i >= max_features: continue
embedding_vector = embeddings_index.get(word)
 if embedding_vector is not None: embedding_matrix[i] = embedding_vector
print("loaded params")
 return embedding_matrix
def load_google(word_index):
model = gensim.models.KeyedVectors.load_word2vec_format('.. /input/embeddings/GoogleNews-vectors-negative300/GoogleNews-vectors-negative300.bin',binary=True)
 words = model.index2word
print(words[0])
 EMBEDDING_FILE = '.. /input/embeddings/GoogleNews-vectors-negative300/GoogleNews-vectors-negative300.bin'
def get_coefs(word,*arr): return word, np.asarray(arr, dtype='float32')
 embeddings_index = dict(get_coefs(*o.split(" ")) for o in open(EMBEDDING_FILE, encoding="utf8", errors='ignore')if len(o)>100)
 all_embs = np.stack(embeddings_index.values())
 emb_mean,emb_std = all_embs.mean() , all_embs.std()
embed_size = all_embs.shape[1]
nb_words = min(max_features, len(word_index))
embedding_matrix = np.random.normal(emb_mean, emb_std,(nb_words, embed_size))
for word, i in word_index.items() :
if i >= max_features: continue
embedding_vector = embeddings_index.get(word)
 if embedding_vector is not None: embedding_matrix[i] = embedding_vector
print("loaded google")
 return embedding_matrix<set_options>
delta =(date(2020, 4, 15)- date(2020, 4, 2)).days
class Attention(Layer):
def __init__(self, step_dim,
W_regularizer=None, b_regularizer=None,
W_constraint=None, b_constraint=None,
bias=True, **kwargs):
self.supports_masking = True
self.init = initializers.get('glorot_uniform')
 self.W_regularizer = regularizers.get(W_regularizer)
 self.b_regularizer = regularizers.get(b_regularizer)
 self.W_constraint = constraints.get(W_constraint)
 self.b_constraint = constraints.get(b_constraint)
 self.bias = bias
self.step_dim = step_dim
self.features_dim = 0
super(Attention, self ).__init__(**kwargs)
 def build(self, input_shape):
assert len(input_shape)== 3
self.W = self.add_weight(( input_shape[-1],),
initializer=self.init,
name='{}_W'.format(self.name),
regularizer=self.W_regularizer,
constraint=self.W_constraint)
 self.features_dim = input_shape[-1]
if self.bias:
self.b = self.add_weight(( input_shape[1],),
initializer='zero',
name='{}_b'.format(self.name),
regularizer=self.b_regularizer,
constraint=self.b_constraint)
 else:
self.b = None
self.built = True
def compute_mask(self, input, input_mask=None):
return None
def call(self, x, mask=None):
features_dim = self.features_dim
step_dim = self.step_dim
eij = K.reshape(K.dot(K.reshape(x,(-1, features_dim)) ,
K.reshape(self.W,(features_dim, 1))),(-1, step_dim))
if self.bias:
eij += self.b
eij = K.tanh(eij)
 a = K.exp(eij)
 if mask is not None:
a *= K.cast(mask, K.floatx())
 a /= K.cast(K.sum(a, axis=1, keepdims=True)+ K.epsilon() , K.floatx())
 a = K.expand_dims(a)
 weighted_input = x * a
return K.sum(weighted_input, axis=1)
 def compute_output_shape(self, input_shape):
return input_shape[0], self.features_dim<choose_model_class>
test_count = len(test_df[test_df['Country_Region'] == 'Russia'])- delta - 1
predicted_cc = []
for i in range(len(train_cc)) :
try:
data1 = train_cc[i]
model1 = SARIMAX(data1, order=(1,1,0), seasonal_order=(1,1,0,12), measurement_error=True)
 model1_fit = model1.fit(disp=False)
 predicted1 = model1_fit.predict(len(data1), len(data1)+test_count)
 predicted_cc.append(predicted1.tolist())
 except:
data1 = train_cc[i]
model1 = SARIMAX(data1,order=(1,1,0),seasonal_order=(1,1,0,12),measurement_error=True,enforce_stationarity=False)
 model1_fit = model1.fit(disp=False)
 predicted1 = model1_fit.predict(len(data1), len(data1)+test_count)
 predicted_cc.append(predicted1.tolist() )
def model_cnn(embedding_matrix):
filter_sizes = [1,2,3,5]
num_filters = 36
inp = Input(shape=(maxlen,))
x = Embedding(max_features, embed_size, weights=[embedding_matrix] )(inp)
 x = Reshape(( maxlen, embed_size, 1))(x)
 maxpool_pool = []
for i in range(len(filter_sizes)) :
conv = Conv2D(num_filters, kernel_size=(filter_sizes[i], embed_size),
kernel_initializer='he_normal', activation='elu' )(x)
 maxpool_pool.append(MaxPool2D(pool_size=(maxlen - filter_sizes[i] + 1, 1))(conv))
z = Concatenate(axis=1 )(maxpool_pool)
 z = Flatten()(z)
 z = Dropout(0.1 )(z)
 outp = Dense(1, activation="sigmoid" )(z)
 model = Model(inputs=inp, outputs=outp)
 model.compile(loss='binary_crossentropy', optimizer='adam', metrics=['accuracy'])
 return model<choose_model_class>
predicted_f = []
for i in range(len(train_f)) :
try:
data2 = train_f[i]
model2 = SARIMAX(data2,order=(1,1,0), seasonal_order=(1,1,0,12), measurement_error=True)
 model2_fit = model2.fit(disp=False)
 predicted2 = model2_fit.predict(len(data2), len(data2)+test_count)
 predicted_f.append(predicted2.tolist())
 except:
data2 = train_f[i]
model2 = SARIMAX(data2,order=(1,1,0),seasonal_order=(1,1,0,12),measurement_error=True,enforce_stationarity=False)
 model2_fit = model2.fit(disp=False)
 predicted2 = model2_fit.predict(len(data2), len(data2)+test_count)
 predicted_f.append(predicted2.tolist() )
def model_lstm_atten(embedding_matrix):
inp = Input(shape=(maxlen,))
x = Embedding(max_features, embed_size, weights=[embedding_matrix], trainable=False )(inp)
 x = Bidirectional(CuDNNLSTM(128, return_sequences=True))(x)
 x = Bidirectional(CuDNNLSTM(64, return_sequences=True))(x)
 x = Attention(maxlen )(x)
 x = Dense(64, activation="relu" )(x)
 x = Dense(1, activation="sigmoid" )(x)
 model = Model(inputs=inp, outputs=x)
 model.compile(loss='binary_crossentropy', optimizer='adam', metrics=['accuracy'])
 return model 
<choose_model_class>
check_lenght = len(train_cc[0][-delta:])+ len(predicted_cc[0])
 if check_lenght == 43:
print('Check OK')
 else:
print('Check failed' )
def model_gru_srk_atten(embedding_matrix):
inp = Input(shape=(maxlen,))
x = Embedding(max_features, embed_size, weights=[embedding_matrix] )(inp)
 x = Bidirectional(CuDNNGRU(64, return_sequences=True))(x)
 x = Attention(maxlen )(x)
 x = Dense(16, activation="relu" )(x)
 x = Dropout(0.1 )(x)
 x = Dense(1, activation="sigmoid" )(x)
 model = Model(inputs=inp, outputs=x)
 model.compile(loss='binary_crossentropy', optimizer='adam', metrics=['accuracy'])
 return model<choose_model_class>
predicted_ConfirmedCases = []
predicted_Fatalities = []
for i in range(int(len(train_df)/ count_len)) :
predicted_ConfirmedCases.append(train_cc[i][-delta:])
 predicted_ConfirmedCases.append(predicted_cc[i])
 predicted_Fatalities.append(train_f[i][-delta:])
 predicted_Fatalities.append(predicted_f[i])
 predicted_ConfirmedCases = list(itertools.chain.from_iterable(predicted_ConfirmedCases))
predicted_Fatalities = list(itertools.chain.from_iterable(predicted_Fatalities))
def model_lstm_du(embedding_matrix):
inp = Input(shape=(maxlen,))
x = Embedding(max_features, embed_size, weights=[embedding_matrix] )(inp)
 x = Bidirectional(CuDNNGRU(64, return_sequences=True))(x)
 avg_pool = GlobalAveragePooling1D()(x)
 max_pool = GlobalMaxPooling1D()(x)
 conc = concatenate([avg_pool, max_pool])
 conc = Dense(128, activation="relu" )(conc)
 conc = Dropout(0.1 )(conc)
 outp = Dense(1, activation="sigmoid" )(conc)
 model = Model(inputs=inp, outputs=outp)
 model.compile(loss='binary_crossentropy', optimizer='adam', metrics=['accuracy'])
 return model<find_best_params>
submission['ConfirmedCases'] = predicted_ConfirmedCases
submission['Fatalities'] = predicted_Fatalities
submission.to_csv('submission.csv', index=False )
def train_pred(model, epochs=2):
for e in range(epochs):
model.fit(train_X, train_y, batch_size=512, epochs=1, validation_data=(val_X, val_y))
pred_val_y = model.predict([val_X], batch_size=1024, verbose=1)
 best_thresh = 0.5
best_score = 0.0
for thresh in np.arange(0.1, 0.501, 0.01):
thresh = np.round(thresh, 2)
 score = metrics.f1_score(val_y,(pred_val_y > thresh ).astype(int))
if score > best_score:
best_thresh = thresh
best_score = score
print("Val F1 Score: {:.4f}".format(best_score))
pred_test_y = model.predict([test_X], batch_size=1024, verbose=1)
 return pred_val_y, pred_test_y, best_score<split>
concl_df = pd.read_csv(sorted(paths)[1])
 concl_feats = ['ForecastId', 'Country_Region', 'Date']
conclusion = pd.concat([concl_df[concl_feats], submission[['ConfirmedCases', 'Fatalities']]], axis=1 )
train_X, val_X, test_X, train_y, val_y, word_index = load_and_prec()
embedding_matrix_1 = load_glove(word_index)
 embedding_matrix_2 = load_fasttext(word_index)
 embedding_matrix_3 = load_para(word_index )<compute_test_metric>
region = 'Russia'
conclusion[conclusion['Country_Region'] == region]