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<title> - THE STATE OF CLIMATE SCIENCE AND WHY IT MATTERS</title> |
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[House Hearing, 116 Congress] |
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[From the U.S. Government Publishing Office] |
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THE STATE OF CLIMATE SCIENCE |
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AND WHY IT MATTERS |
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HEARING |
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BEFORE THE |
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COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE, SPACE, AND TECHNOLOGY |
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HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES |
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ONE HUNDRED SIXTEENTH CONGRESS |
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FIRST SESSION |
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FEBRUARY 13, 2019 |
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Serial No. 116-1 |
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Printed for the use of the Committee on Science, Space, and Technology |
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[GRAPHIC(S) NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT] |
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Available via the World Wide Web: http://science.house.gov |
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U.S. GOVERNMENT PUBLISHING OFFICE |
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35-231 PDF WASHINGTON : 2019 |
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COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE, SPACE, AND TECHNOLOGY |
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HON. EDDIE BERNICE JOHNSON, Texas, Chairwoman |
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ZOE LOFGREN, California FRANK D. LUCAS, Oklahoma, |
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DANIEL LIPINSKI, Illinois Ranking Member |
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SUZANNE BONAMICI, Oregon MO BROOKS, Alabama |
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AMI BERA, California, BILL POSEY, Florida |
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Vice Chair RANDY WEBER, Texas |
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CONOR LAMB, Pennsylvania BRIAN BABIN, Texas |
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LIZZIE FLETCHER, Texas ANDY BIGGS, Arizona |
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HALEY STEVENS, Michigan ROGER MARSHALL, Kansas |
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KENDRA HORN, Oklahoma NEAL DUNN, Florida |
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MIKIE SHERRILL, New Jersey RALPH NORMAN, South Carolina |
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BRAD SHERMAN, California MICHAEL CLOUD, Texas |
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STEVE COHEN, Tennessee TROY BALDERSON, Ohio |
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JERRY McNERNEY, California PETE OLSON, Texas |
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ED PERLMUTTER, Colorado ANTHONY GONZALEZ, Ohio |
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PAUL TONKO, New York MICHAEL WALTZ, Florida |
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BILL FOSTER, Illinois JIM BAIRD, Indiana |
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DON BEYER, Virginia VACANCY |
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CHARLIE CRIST, Florida VACANCY |
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SEAN CASTEN, Illinois |
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KATIE HILL, California |
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BEN McADAMS, Utah |
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JENNIFER WEXTON, Virginia |
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C O N T E N T S |
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February 13, 2019 |
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Page |
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Hearing Charter.................................................. 2 |
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Opening Statements |
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Statement by Representative Eddie Bernice Johnson, Chairwoman, |
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Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, U.S. House of |
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Representatives................................................ 8 |
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Written Statement............................................ 10 |
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Statement by Representative Frank D. Lucas, Ranking Member, |
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Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, U.S. House of |
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Representatives................................................ 12 |
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Written Statement............................................ 14 |
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Witnesses: |
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Dr. Robert Kopp, Director, Rutgers Institute of Earth, Ocean, and |
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Atmospheric Sciences, and Professor, Department of Earth and |
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Planetary Sciences, Rutgers University |
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Oral Statement............................................... 17 |
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Written Statement............................................ 19 |
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Dr. Jennifer Francis, Senior Scientist, Woods Hole Research |
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Center |
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Oral Statement............................................... 33 |
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Written Statement............................................ 35 |
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Dr. Joseph Majkut, Director of Climate Policy, Niskanen Center |
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Oral Statement............................................... 41 |
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Written Statement............................................ 43 |
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Dr. Kristie L. Ebi, Rohm and Haas Endowed Professor in Public |
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Health Sciences, and Director, Center for Health and the Global |
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Environment, University of Washington |
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Oral Statement............................................... 54 |
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Written Statement............................................ 56 |
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Dr. Natalie M. Mahowald, Irving Porter Church Professor of |
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Engineering, Faculty Director for the Environment, Atkinson |
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Center for a Sustainable Future, Cornell University |
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Oral Statement............................................... 76 |
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Written Statement............................................ 78 |
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Discussion....................................................... 115 |
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Appendix I: Answers to Post-Hearing Questions |
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Dr. Robert Kopp, Director, Rutgers Institute of Earth, Ocean, and |
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Atmospheric Sciences, and Professor, Department of Earth and |
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Planetary Sciences, Rutgers University......................... 152 |
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Dr. Jennifer Francis, Senior Scientist, Woods Hole Research |
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Center......................................................... 157 |
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Dr. Joseph Majkut, Director of Climate Policy, Niskanen Center... 162 |
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Dr. Kristie L. Ebi, Rohm and Haas Endowed Professor in Public |
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Health Sciences, and Director, Center for Health and the Global |
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Environment, University of Washington.......................... 168 |
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Appendix II: Additional Material for the Record |
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Letter submitted by Representative Lizzie Fletcher, Committee on |
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Science, Space, and Technology, U.S. House of Representatives.. 246 |
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Report submitted by Representative Bill Foster, Committee on |
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Science, Space, and Technology, U.S. House of Representatives.. 248 |
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Article submitted by Representative Sean Casten, Committee on |
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Science, Space, and Technology, U.S. House of Representatives.. 269 |
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THE STATE OF CLIMATE SCIENCE |
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AND WHY IT MATTERS |
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WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 13, 2019 |
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House of Representatives, |
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Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, |
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Washington, D.C. |
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The Committee met, pursuant to notice, at 10:01 a.m., in |
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room 2318, Rayburn House Office Building, Hon. Eddie Bernice |
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Johnson [Chairwoman of the Committee] presiding. |
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[GRAPHIC(S) NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT] |
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Chairwoman Johnson. This hearing will come to order. |
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Without objection, the Chair is authorized to declare a recess |
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at any time. |
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Good morning, and welcome to today's hearing entitled, |
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``The State of Climate Science and Why it Matters.'' Let me |
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first welcome everyone to the full Committee hearing of the |
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Committee on Science, Space, and Technology for the 116th |
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Congress. I'm looking forward to a productive and collegial |
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meeting today, one in which rigorous scientific discourse can |
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help enable the creation of a sound public policy. |
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Every committee is meeting because we've had to alter |
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committee meetings this week because we've had two funerals. |
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And so we will have Members coming and going, and we hope that |
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you'll understand. |
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I also want to welcome all of our distinguished witnesses |
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and thank them for their flexibility in making themselves |
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available to participate in this rescheduled hearing. |
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Today's hearing is the first in what will be multiple |
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climate-change-related hearings this Congress. Following the |
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release of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) |
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Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 +C, and the National |
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Climate Assessment last year, it is clear that we're |
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responsible for our planet warming at an alarming rate, and we |
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already are feeling the impacts of this warming today. Setting |
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the stage with a discussion of the most relevant and up-to-date |
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scientific evidence from these and other reports will allow us |
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to better understand the climate-related impacts we are |
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experiencing in all of our districts. The evidence of continued |
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unmitigated emissions of greenhouse gases is clear. Our coastal |
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communities are dealing with sea-level rise and ocean |
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acidification, and all communities are dealing with more severe |
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weather incidences and the increased exposure to extreme heat |
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and poor air quality. |
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Today's discussion on climate science is important to |
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deepening our fundamental understanding of why the climate is |
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changing and how this manifests in ways that impact society. It |
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will also help us as we turn our focus to the role of science |
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and innovative technology development to devise adaptation and |
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mitigation strategies, which will have numerous positive |
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benefits for our economy, our safety and security, and our |
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public health. I am glad we have the leading experts in these |
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fields who worked closely on these reports to guide our |
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discussion. |
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I also want to note that the impacts of climate change are |
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not limited to what is described in these climate science |
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reports. Just last week, NOAA's (National Oceanic and |
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Atmospheric Administration) State of the Climate Report for |
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2018 found that it was the wettest year for the contiguous |
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United States in the past 35 years. NASA (National Aeronautics |
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and Space Administration) and NOAA also found that last year |
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had the fourth-highest global surface temperature since 1880. |
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It has almost become a given that we can expect record-breaking |
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temperatures every year, especially since the past 5 years have |
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been the warmest in modern record. |
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Though this Administration has regrettably chosen to ignore |
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the findings of its own scientists in regards to climate |
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change, we as lawmakers have a responsibility to protect the |
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public's interest. I plan to do this by making sure this |
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Committee is informed by the most relevant and up-to-date |
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science as we work to conduct our legislative and oversight |
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responsibilities. The Science Committee oversees much of the |
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Federal climate research, and as well as the development and |
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demonstration of new and innovative technologies, which makes |
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our role as Members of this Committee critical to preparing our |
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country to deal with climate change. |
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I look forward to kicking off a fruitful and informative |
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discussion that will continue throughout this Congress on why |
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we need to act on climate change now. |
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[The prepared statement of Chairwoman Johnson follows:] |
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[GRAPHIC(S) NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT] |
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Chairwoman Johnson. Now I will recognize the Ranking |
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Member's opening statement. |
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Mr. Lucas. Thank you, Chairwoman Johnson, and I would like |
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to again thank you for holding this hearing and providing a |
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platform to hold a constructive dialog on the issue of climate |
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change. |
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I'm proud to be a western Oklahoma farmer and to represent |
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a resilient community of farmers. As any farmer can tell you, |
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we are especially dependent on the weather. Droughts and heat |
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waves come and go naturally, but the changing climate has |
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intensified their impacts. |
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We know the climate is changing and that global industrial |
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activity has played a role in this phenomenon. But our |
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communities, like the farmers and ranchers in my district, need |
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to know more about the extent to which a changing climate |
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affects short- and long-term weather patterns. |
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I believe the Federal Government has a responsibility to |
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prioritize research so that we can better understand the |
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complex relationship between climate and weather and increase |
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preparedness in our communities. I also believe it's critical |
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that America leads the world in developing the next-generation |
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technologies to address the effects of climate change. |
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Fortunately, we have a unique opportunity here on the |
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Science Committee to promote research and technology solutions. |
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American industry, innovators, and researchers at our national |
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labs are pioneering technologies that capture carbon emissions |
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from coal and natural gas, batteries that store energy from |
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intermittent energy sources like wind and solar, and advanced |
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nuclear reactors that can provide cleaner, more affordable |
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power. These technologies have the potential to reduce |
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greenhouse gas emissions around the world and ensure American |
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energy dominance. |
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America has always led the way in technology advances. In |
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1919, my great aunt's prized possession was a phonograph, a |
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mechanical device which was then state-of-the-art technology. A |
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hundred years later, we listen to music on our cell phones, and |
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no one could have predicted the incredible leap forward in |
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technology. Americans are always innovating, finding surprising |
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ways to meet new challenges. Energy is no exception. Hydraulic |
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fracking revolutionized energy production, unlocking a vast |
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American energy resource that was unimaginable just a decade |
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ago. Developed by industry in cooperation with the national |
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labs, fracking reduced the environmental footprint of energy |
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production and has brought cleaner, cheaper natural gas to the |
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market around the world. |
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Through innovation, we can repeat this incredible success. |
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The next technological breakthrough is right around the corner, |
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and if we want to succeed, we must continue to focus on |
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realistic, technology-driven solutions to climate change that |
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can compete in today's economy. We won't succeed in pie-in-the- |
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sky policies that demand 100 percent renewable energy at the |
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expense of reliable power from nuclear and fossil fuels and |
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raise energy prices for businesses and consumers. |
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Today, we'll hear from Dr. Joseph Majkut, the Director of |
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Climate Policy for the Niskanen Center, who will stress that |
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it's essential that we take a realistic, innovative, and |
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competitive approach to addressing climate change. I share his |
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belief that by investing in research to develop carbon capture, |
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carbon use, advanced nuclear and renewable energy technologies, |
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we can incentivize innovation and growth in these industries |
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and reduce carbon emissions in the process. Innovation is good |
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for the global environment and the American economy. |
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I take environmental policy very seriously. This dedication |
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comes from being raised by people who lived through the worst |
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prolonged environmental disaster in American history, the great |
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drought and Dust Bowl of the 1930s. We have a responsibility to |
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ensure events like the Dust Bowl never occur again. |
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While this Committee cannot control the weather, we can |
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prioritize investments in basic science and energy research |
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that will revolutionize the global energy market. America led |
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the world in coal, oil, and gas. Now we must lead again, and |
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partner with industry to develop breakthrough energy |
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technologies and make our existing energy sources cleaner and |
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more affordable. |
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I thank our witnesses for being here today, and I yield |
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back the balance of my time, Madam Chairman. |
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[The prepared statement of Mr. Lucas follows:] |
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[GRAPHIC(S) NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT] |
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Chairwoman Johnson. Thank you very much, Mr. Lucas. |
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If there are Members who wish to submit additional opening |
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statements, your statements will be added to the record at this |
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point. |
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At this time I'd like to introduce our witnesses. Our first |
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witness is Dr. Natalie Mahowald, the Irving Porter Church |
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Professor of Engineering, and the Faculty Director for the |
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Environment of the Atkinson Center for a Sustainable Future at |
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Cornell University. Due to the weather-related travel delays, |
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she's joining us through a video link from Ithaca, New York. |
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Her research looks at natural feedbacks in the climate system, |
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and Dr. Mahowald was the lead author on the IPCC Special Report |
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on 1.5 +C Global Warming |
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released last year and the IPCC Fifth Assessment from Working |
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Group 1 on the physical science of climate change in 2013. |
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She received her Ph.D. in meteorology from the |
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Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and we now will |
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recognize--she'll be our first witness. |
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Our second witness is Dr. Robert Kopp, who is Director of |
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Rutgers Institute of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, |
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and Professor in the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences |
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at Rutgers University. He also serves as Co-Director of |
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Rutgers' Coastal Climate Risk and Resilience Initiative. Dr. |
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Kopp's research focuses on past and future sea-level change and |
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the utilization of climate risk information and decisionmaking. |
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He is a lead author of volume 1 of the Fourth National Climate |
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Assessment (NCA 4) released last year and the IPCC's Sixth |
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Assessment Report, which is due out in 2021. |
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Dr. Kopp received his Ph.D. in geobiology from the |
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California Institute of Technology. |
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Our third witness, Dr. Jennifer Francis, who is a Senior |
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Scientist at the Woods Hole Research Center. Dr. Francis' |
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research focuses on climate change impacts in the Arctic and |
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how that affects weather around the world, especially how a |
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warming Arctic may lead to a weakened jet stream. Dr. Francis |
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is regularly quoted in media outlets. |
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Dr. Francis received her Ph.D. in atmospheric sciences from |
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the University of Washington. |
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Our fourth witness is Dr. Joseph Majkut from the Niskanen |
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Center. He is an expert on climate science policy, and risk and |
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uncertainty analysis for decisionmaking, and is frequently |
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cited by media outlets on climate scientific research. |
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He received his Ph.D. in atmospheric and oceanic sciences |
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from Princeton University. |
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Our final witness, Dr. Kristie Ebi, who is the Director of |
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the Center for Health and the Global Environment, or CHanGE |
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program, and the Rohm and Haas Endowed Professor in Public |
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Health Sciences at the University of Washington. Dr. Ebi's |
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research includes estimating current and future health risks of |
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climate change and estimating the health co-benefits of |
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mitigation policies and technologies. Dr. Ebi was the chapter |
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lead on the Human Health Chapter, volume 2, of the Fourth |
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National Climate Assessment released last year. She also co- |
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chairs the National Academies Committee to Advise a U.S. Global |
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Change Research program. |
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Dr. Ebi received her Ph.D. in epidemiology from the |
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University of Michigan. |
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As our witnesses shall know, you will each have 5 minutes |
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for your spoken testimony. Your written testimony will be |
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included in the record of the hearing. When all of you have |
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completed your spoken testimony, we will begin a round of |
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questions. Each Member will have 5 minutes to question the |
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panel. |
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And we will start with a witness that is appearing on the |
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screen, Dr. Mahowald. |
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[Audio malfunction in hearing room.] |
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Chairwoman Johnson [continuing]. We can't--let's go to Dr. |
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Kopp and then return when we get the technology working. |
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TESTIMONY OF DR. ROBERT KOPP, |
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DIRECTOR, RUTGERS INSTITUTE OF EARTH, OCEAN, |
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AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, |
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AND PROFESSOR, DEPARTMENT OF EARTH AND |
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PLANETARY SCIENCES, RUTGERS UNIVERSITY |
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Dr. Kopp. All right. Well, thank you, Chairwoman Johnson, |
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Ranking Member Lucas, and Committee Members for inviting me to |
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speak today. My name is Robert Kopp. I am the Director of the |
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Rutgers Institute of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences and |
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a Professor at Rutgers University. My research focuses on past |
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and future sea-level change and on the interactions between |
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climate change and the economy. |
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I served as one of the 29 lead authors of the fourth |
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volume--of the first volume of the Fourth National Climate |
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Assessment, and I was invited here to speak to the fourth |
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assessment. I should note that I'm doing so in my personal |
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capacity, not to represent the U.S. Global Change Research |
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Program or Rutgers. |
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The Fourth National Climate Assessment provides an up-to- |
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date assessment of the scientific understanding of climate |
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change, its current effects on the United States, and its |
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potential future impacts. It draws out key findings from the |
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massive body of peer-reviewed science to support scientifically |
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informed climate risk management. Its first volume focuses on |
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the physical science; the second on impacts, risks, and |
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adaptation. The report's nearly 2,000 pages are data-driven and |
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extensively referenced. Both volumes underwent detailed |
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transparent review processes, including open reviews by |
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external experts in the general public and thorough reviews by |
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independent experts convened by the National Academies. |
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The process of drafting the National Climate Assessment was |
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painstaking and complex, but its fundamental findings are |
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simple and urgent. First, climate change is real, it is |
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happening now, and humans are responsible for it. The planet is |
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running a fever. Its average temperature has increased by |
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nearly 2 +F since 1900 with humans responsible for essentially |
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all of the warming since 1950. |
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Second, climate change isn't an issue for the distant |
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future. It's already affecting Americans in every region of the |
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country. Across the country, heat waves are becoming more |
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frequent, heavy rainfall more intense, and coastal flooding |
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more common as a result of climate change and sea-level rise. |
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Studies show that climate change intensified the dry hot summer |
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of 2011 in Texas and Oklahoma, the recent drought in |
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California, and the rainfall of Hurricane Harvey in 2017. |
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Third, climate change is not just an environmental |
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challenge. It's an economic challenge, an infrastructure |
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challenge, a public-health challenge, and a national-security |
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challenge. As the report notes, and I quote, ``In the absence |
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of more significant global mitigation efforts, climate change |
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is projected to impose substantial damages on the U.S. economy, |
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human health, and the environment,'' particularly in scenarios |
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with limited adaptation. |
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Fourth, every amount--every additional amount of greenhouse |
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gas emitted makes climate change more severe. In order to |
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stabilize global climate at any level, human--any level of |
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warming, human emissions of carbon dioxide must be brought as |
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close to zero as possible with any continued emission of |
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CO<INF>2</INF> balanced by human removal of carbon dioxide from |
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the atmosphere, whether that's by expanding forests or using |
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new, little-tested technologies. In other words, to stabilize |
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the global climate, net global carbon dioxide emissions must be |
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brought to zero. The faster we reduce our emissions, the less |
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severe the effects and the lower the risk of unwelcome |
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surprises. |
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Fifth, though the pace is not yet adequate to minimize |
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climate risk, Americans are already starting to respond by |
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reducing emissions and beginning to adapt to climate-change |
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impacts. As the report notes, 110 cities, several States, and |
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an increasing number of companies have adopted emissions- |
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reduction targets. The report highlights adaptation planning |
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efforts by cities and transport systems, the use of innovative |
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farming techniques to deal with wet and dry extremes, and |
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efforts to measure--to manage water scarcity in places like the |
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Colorado River basin and Texas' Edwards Aquifer. These |
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mitigation and adaptation efforts need to grow dramatically and |
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rapidly to effectively manage climate risk. |
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In conclusion, the National Climate Assessment shows that |
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climate change is real, it's here, and we humans are |
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responsible for it. To stabilize the global climate, we need to |
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bring net global greenhouse gas emissions to zero. The sooner |
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we do this, the smaller the risks to our economy, health, |
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infrastructure, and security that we will have to manage. But |
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even with strong emissions reductions, there will still be |
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major adaptation challenges ahead. It's therefore essential |
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that climate change become a routine and integrated part of |
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decisionmaking at all levels, public and private, Federal, |
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State, and local. |
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Thank you for holding this important hearing today. It's my |
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hope that, as the Science Committee, you will look closely at |
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how to advance the climate science enterprise in a manner that |
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supports climate risk management. |
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[The prepared statement of Dr. Kopp follows:] |
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[GRAPHIC(S) NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT] |
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Chairwoman Johnson. Thank you very much, Dr. Kopp. Do we |
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have that ready yet? OK. We'll move to Dr. Francis. |
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TESTIMONY OF DR. JENNIFER FRANCIS, |
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SENIOR SCIENTIST, WOODS HOLE RESEARCH CENTER |
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Dr. Francis. Good morning. My name is Jennifer Francis. I'm |
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an atmospheric scientist at the Woods Hole Research Center in |
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Massachusetts, and I study the connections between climate |
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change and extreme weather. Thank you, Chairwoman Johnson and |
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Members of the Committee, for the opportunity to testify here |
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today. |
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It's not your imagination. Extreme weather events have |
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become more frequent in recent decades. If we could have figure |
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1. |
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[Slide.] |
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Dr. Francis. According to this analysis by Munich Re, one |
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of the foremost reinsurance companies in the world, the |
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occurrence of extreme weather events has nearly tripled since |
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the 1980s. They are shown by the green, blue, and orange bars |
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in this figure. |
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Images of recent extreme weather events are etched into our |
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memories: Neighborhoods flooded by feet of rain unleashed by |
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Hurricanes Harvey and Florence, docks sitting high and dry in |
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California's reservoirs, and a sunken New Jersey roller coaster |
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in the wake of Superstorm Sandy to name only a few. Yes, |
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extreme weather has always happened, but there's no question |
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that it's more vicious now, and all the signs point to it |
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getting worse as the globe continues to warm under a thickening |
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blanket of greenhouse gases. |
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Before I go any further, let's clear up a few definitions |
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that sometimes cause confusion. Climate change versus global |
|
warming: Climate change means all the ways that the climate |
|
system is changing, while global warming is just one of those |
|
ways. Climate versus weather: Climate is the average of all the |
|
weather that occurs at a particular location, while weather is |
|
the day-to-day swings in temperature and precipitation. Think |
|
of climate as your personality and weather as your mood on any |
|
given day. |
|
The links between climate change and extreme weather are a |
|
hot topic of scientific research. Some of the connections are |
|
straightforward. For example, global warming is making heat |
|
waves more intense and persistent and therefore more deadly. |
|
And as the air and oceans warm, evaporation also increases, |
|
which fuels an uptick in heavy precipitation events. The warmer |
|
oceans are also fueling rapid intensification of tropical |
|
storms, and because sea level is higher, storm surges are doing |
|
more damage now. On a happier note, though, fewer low- |
|
temperature records are being broken. All of these changes are |
|
clearly tied to a warming planet. |
|
Other less straightforward connections are emerging as |
|
well. The polar vortex has been in the news a lot lately, so |
|
let's start with winter extremes. The polar vortex is a frigid |
|
pool of air encircled by strong winds that sits up high above |
|
the Arctic only during winter. Recent studies suggest it has |
|
been weakening and deforming more often lately, and when that |
|
happens, extreme cold and hot temperatures strike the northern |
|
hemisphere. |
|
If I could at the next figure, please. |
|
[Slide.] |
|
Dr. Francis. This map of temperature departures during the |
|
recent Eastern cold snap demonstrates this clearly, so even |
|
though cold records are being broken less often, severe cold |
|
spells and heat waves will still happen. |
|
Turning southward, global warming appears to be widening |
|
the tropics. This may sound like a good thing, but it's causing |
|
abnormal heat and drought in temperate regions such as |
|
Australia, southern California, and South Africa. We're also |
|
learning that earlier spring snow melt is causing high latitude |
|
land areas to dry out and warm up faster. This creates land |
|
temperature patterns that can trap summer weather systems and |
|
make them stagnant. Studies have linked deadly summer heat |
|
waves and floods to this change in the climate. |
|
Finally, rapid Arctic warming may be favoring weather |
|
regimes that exacerbate drought, heat, and wildfires in our |
|
Western States while stacking the deck toward cool and stormy |
|
conditions in the East. Remember the parade of bomb cyclones |
|
that struck the eastern seaboard last winter? This pattern was |
|
responsible. |
|
In a nutshell, we know that our atmosphere is warmer and |
|
wetter, which alters every weather event that happens now. It's |
|
relatively easy to determine that climate change made Harvey's |
|
rainfall more intense, but it's much harder to say whether |
|
Harvey would have stalled over Houston in the absence of |
|
climate change. There's no doubt that the Arctic has warmed |
|
much faster than elsewhere, but whether Arctic air is surging |
|
southward more frequently now because of climate change is a |
|
cutting-edge research question. |
|
This is just a sampling of the many topics being studied in |
|
our universities and research laboratories, the results of |
|
which are crucial to understanding climate change impacts, |
|
knowledge that will help decisionmakers and each of us prepare |
|
for a future with even more destructive weather extremes. |
|
Clearly more work is needed to confirm or reject these complex |
|
relationships, though many are already coming into sharp focus. |
|
Thank you again for inviting me to be here. |
|
[The prepared statement of Dr. Francis follows:] |
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[GRAPHIC(S) NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT] |
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Chairwoman Johnson. Thank you, Dr. Francis. |
|
Dr. Majkut? |
|
|
|
TESTIMONY OF DR. JOSEPH MAJKUT, |
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|
DIRECTOR OF CLIMATE POLICY, NISKANEN CENTER |
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|
Dr. Majkut. Good morning, and thank you for having me, |
|
Chairwoman Johnson, Ranking Member Lucas, Members of the |
|
Committee. |
|
My name is Joseph Majkut, and I am the Director of Climate |
|
Policy at the Niskanen Center, which is a 501(c)(3) located |
|
here in Washington. We work to promote public policy to advance |
|
an open society and particularly in climate we promote a |
|
mainstream understanding of climate science. It's nothing to be |
|
afraid of. And we aim to better characterize the risks of |
|
climate change. And on the policy side we support market-based |
|
policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. |
|
The Committee asked that we comment on the recent United |
|
Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special |
|
Report on Global Warming of 1.5 +C, as well as the Fourth |
|
National Climate Assessment prepared by the USGRCP (U.S. Global |
|
Change Research Program), and I'd like to offer a brief summary |
|
of those reports. |
|
Climate change is real, and global emissions of greenhouse |
|
gases are driving latter-day global warming. Manifestations of |
|
that warming are increasingly observed, as Dr. Francis just |
|
told us in great detail, and attributed to global emissions as |
|
well. But these are early days, so many of the changes |
|
scientists expect to see are either subtle or undetectable at |
|
high confidence. |
|
Yet as climate change continues, more severe and perverse |
|
effects will manifest themselves causing economic harms and |
|
damages to individuals, ecosystems, and other things that we |
|
tend to be concerned about. The science tells us also that |
|
limiting climate change means ceasing global emissions, and |
|
that's a challenging thing to do. |
|
The goals articulated in international agreements, that is |
|
limiting warming to 1.5 or 2 +C globally are probably unlikely |
|
given that they would require global emissions to fall by 45-- |
|
or 25 percent by 2030 and further from there. That doesn't mean |
|
that the impulse to do that is unjustified given the risks we |
|
face. Those emissions reductions, however, sit in stark |
|
contrast to what we've seen over the last few decades. To even |
|
get close, we'll need significant innovation in low-carbon |
|
technology, finance, and market design in order to be able to |
|
provide reliable, affordable, and globally accessible low- |
|
carbon energy. |
|
Given the present circumstance, how should this Committee |
|
respond this Congress? I've got three areas that I think the |
|
Committee should point its attention to. First, the time to |
|
talk about solving climate change has really passed us. We're |
|
managing a chronic condition, and we cannot place the burden on |
|
reducing global emissions alone. Rather, we must prioritize |
|
reducing social--societal vulnerability and adapting to climate |
|
change where we can. While this will largely be an effort for |
|
the private sector and local government, those efforts will be |
|
bolstered by continued Federal support for research into |
|
climate change's effects and the risks that our communities |
|
face. This research can be disseminated through social and |
|
professional networks, and devices like the National Climate |
|
Assessment provide a very good venue for that work. |
|
Second, a world aiming for 2 +C will require a portfolio of |
|
low-carbon energy sources, including carbon capture and storage |
|
for fossil fuels. In a world aiming for 1.5 +C, processes that |
|
remove carbon from the atmosphere will need to be deployed at a |
|
scale capturing up to 1/4 of today's emissions, and that is a |
|
mind-boggling number for an infant technology. Both of these |
|
will be large industries, but the technologies are so infant |
|
that they need your support. Faster progress is possible |
|
through smart investments in advanced research, which deserve |
|
the Committee's continued attention and support. |
|
Third, we have to research alternatives. Last Congress I |
|
testified before your Subcommittees on Environment and Energy |
|
on a research and governance agenda for so-called geo- |
|
engineering technologies, which could sever the link between |
|
global emissions and warming. While we had a productive |
|
hearing, there's still much that this Committee could do to |
|
support early research into these technologies and help |
|
establish a set of norms under which that research could be |
|
done. |
|
Thank you for inviting me to testify, and I look forward to |
|
a robust discussion. |
|
[The prepared statement of Dr. Majkut follows:] |
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[GRAPHIC(S) NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT] |
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Chairwoman Johnson. Thank you very much, Dr. Majkut. |
|
Dr. Ebi? |
|
|
|
TESTIMONY OF DR. KRISTIE L. EBI, |
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|
|
ROHM AND HAAS ENDOWED PROFESSOR |
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|
|
IN PUBLIC HEALTH SCIENCES, AND |
|
|
|
DIRECTOR, CENTER FOR HEALTH AND |
|
|
|
THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT (CHanGE), |
|
|
|
UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON |
|
|
|
Dr. Ebi. Thank you, Chairman Johnson, Ranking Member Lucas, |
|
distinguished Members of the Committee, for the opportunity to |
|
speak with you today. As you know, my name is Kristie Ebi. I've |
|
got more than 20 years' experience---- |
|
[Audio malfunction in hearing room.] |
|
Dr. Ebi. Do you want me to start over? Sorry about that. |
|
The evidence is clear. Climate change is adversely affecting |
|
the health of Americans. Climate change is heating the land and |
|
oceans, melting snow and ice, increasing the frequency and |
|
severity of extreme weather events, and raising sea levels. All |
|
of these have significant implications for our health and well- |
|
being, as well as for our public health and healthcare |
|
infrastructure. It is timely and appropriate for Congress to |
|
understand this issue of critical national importance so that |
|
effective actions can be taken to protect and promote the |
|
health of all Americans now and in the future. |
|
Climate change affects human health by altering exposures |
|
to heat waves, floods, droughts, and other extreme events by |
|
increasing the prevalence of some vector, food, and water-borne |
|
infectious diseases; by reducing the quality and safety of our |
|
air, food, and water; and by worsening our mental health and |
|
well-being. Climate change also can affect health by, for |
|
example, undermining economic productivity and reducing labor |
|
productivity. |
|
As the Fourth U.S. National Climate Assessment highlights, |
|
Americans are already suffering and dying from our changing |
|
climate with primarily negative risks projected to increase |
|
with each additional unit of warming. The IPCC's Special Report |
|
on Global Warming of 1.5 +C, which assessed research in the |
|
U.S. and globally, concluded that lower risks are projected at |
|
1.5, than at 2 +C for heat-related morbidity and mortality, for |
|
ozone mortality if the precursor emissions remain high. Risks |
|
from vector-borne diseases such as malaria, dengue fever, and |
|
Lyme disease are projected to increase with warming from 1.5 to |
|
2 +C, including potential shifts in their geographic range to |
|
areas previously unexposed to these diseases. |
|
Individuals and communities are differentially exposed to |
|
climate-related hazards and disproportionately affected by |
|
climate-related health risks. Populations experiencing greater |
|
risk include children, older adults, low-income communities, |
|
and some communities of color. |
|
The adverse health impacts of climate change have many |
|
potential economic and social costs, including medical expenses |
|
and caregiving services, as well as costs that are harder to |
|
quantify such as those associated with pain, suffering, |
|
inconvenience, or reduced enjoyment of leisure activities. |
|
Further, our healthcare infrastructure is vulnerable to extreme |
|
events with, for example, many hospitals and healthcare clinics |
|
located in coastal regions subject to flooding. |
|
The magnitude and pattern of future health risks depend on |
|
the rapidity and extent of greenhouse gas emission reductions |
|
and on the level of ambition and investment in adaptation. Many |
|
projected risks and costs which, in some cases, may be |
|
extremely unaffordable, can be reduced by taking immediate |
|
action to increase preparedness for effectively managing health |
|
and healthcare infrastructure risks. Examples include |
|
developing early notification and response plans such as for |
|
extreme heat, implementing integrated surveillance of climate- |
|
sensitive infectious diseases, and incorporating climate |
|
projections into emergency preparedness and disaster risk- |
|
management initiatives. These steps can protect health now and |
|
provide a basis for more effective adaptation to our future |
|
climate. |
|
Nearly all mitigation policies to reduce greenhouse gas |
|
emissions have benefits for health for Americans in the near- |
|
and in the long-term by reducing premature mortality and by |
|
avoiding hospitalizations. By the end of this century, |
|
thousands of premature deaths could be avoided and hundreds of |
|
millions of dollars in health-related economic benefits gained |
|
each year under a pathway of lower greenhouse gas emissions. |
|
Finally, on a personal note, I grew up in Senator Dingell's |
|
district. He was a very dedicated public servant who helped |
|
write most of our major environmental and energy laws that were |
|
passed by Congress. My condolences to his family, his friends, |
|
and his colleagues. Thank you. |
|
[The prepared statement of Dr. Ebi follows:] |
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|
[GRAPHIC(S) NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT] |
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Chairwoman Johnson. Thank you very much. |
|
We're going to return now to our first witness. No? She's |
|
not quite ready. |
|
Let me thank all of the witnesses. We now will go to our |
|
first round of questions. I will go through a few questions I |
|
have at the beginning. |
|
Last month's government shutdown lasted for 35 days. During |
|
that time, many Federal science activities were put on hold. |
|
While some essential activities continued like the National |
|
Weather Service forecast, many other activities stopped |
|
entirely like updates to NOAA's climate and hurricane models. |
|
There were also staffing issues like the National Center for |
|
Environmental Protection, which had just one person out of 200 |
|
on staff during the shutdown. |
|
These questions are for any or all of you that would like |
|
to respond. First question, what are the short- and long-term |
|
impacts of a government shutdown on Federal climate science? |
|
And with the United States currently a global leader in climate |
|
science, how do government shutdowns risk the U.S. leadership |
|
in producing top climate science? And what impact does it have |
|
on the rest of the world? We are heading to another potential |
|
shutdown, but hopefully it won't occur. But what are the top |
|
risks of our climate science enterprise when or if another |
|
shutdown is a reality? |
|
You can start, Dr. Kopp. |
|
Dr. Kopp. Sure. I'll just give a couple quick examples. So |
|
during the last shutdown, I was at an IPCC lead author meeting |
|
in Vancouver, and there were several of our co-authors who |
|
couldn't make it there because of the shutdown. And then of |
|
course, if you're looking at a large collaboration, having |
|
people who not only can't be there but also can't even be there |
|
remotely sort of makes you an unreliable partner, right? And so |
|
if you ask, how does this affect U.S. leadership, well, if we |
|
are an unreliable partner in international collaborations, that |
|
does make it harder for us to be a leader. |
|
Another example, one of my co-authors at NOAA, we're |
|
working on a paper together, he didn't have access to his |
|
computer or data during the shutdown, and so all of the |
|
analyses that might've happened during that time were stalled. |
|
It's one thing if this is a couple of weeks, but if it's a |
|
chronic condition, this really accumulates. |
|
Dr. Francis. I would just add to what Dr. Kopp has |
|
mentioned. There were several major scientific conferences that |
|
occurred during the shutdown, and a large number of government |
|
employees were just unable to attend and present the research |
|
that they'd been working on for literally years, which is a |
|
huge detriment to their careers. Also, several field programs |
|
that were supposed to occur could not, so in some cases those |
|
field programs maybe won't happen ever or at least they'll be |
|
delayed for a year or more because there's a lot of planning |
|
and logistics that have to be lined up to make those field |
|
programs work. There was also a big delay in processing |
|
proposals for more research or processing reports on that |
|
research, and all of that just delays the progress of science. |
|
Chairwoman Johnson. Thank you. |
|
Dr. Ebi. To add to the other comments, everything you heard |
|
so far this morning about climate change is driven by data, and |
|
those data need to be collected. Equipment is not perfect, as |
|
we saw so far this morning, and someone needs to go out and fix |
|
equipment. There are various things that need to take place to |
|
make sure that you continue those data series. You can't make |
|
up data that you can't go back and regenerate what you didn't |
|
collect, and so having these gaps where we don't have our |
|
critical Federal employees taking care of collecting the data |
|
that we need so critically to provide the science you need to |
|
make informed decisions. |
|
Chairwoman Johnson. Thank you very much. Now, according to |
|
the IPCC's special report, limiting global warming to 1.5 |
|
centigrade over the long-term would, compared to 2, provide |
|
clear benefits to people and natural ecosystems. However, it |
|
would also require rapid far-reaching and unprecedented changes |
|
in all aspects of society to achieve decarbonization of our |
|
economy. |
|
So for each panelist, if you would just comment, what are |
|
the potential costs of failing to limit warming to 1.5 |
|
centigrade? The witnesses can speak to their own areas of |
|
expertise in societal, economic, and environmental impacts. |
|
Dr. Kopp. Well, I mean, there are a number of risks that |
|
accumulate the more carbon dioxide we put in. More heat waves |
|
lead to more mortality, as we've heard from our other speakers. |
|
Sea-level rise will be somewhat higher under 2 degrees versus |
|
1.5 degrees, and so that leads to more coastal flooding. |
|
Both of those goals are heavy lifts, and so, the most |
|
important thing to keep in mind, I would argue, is that to |
|
stabilize climate at any level we need to get net global |
|
greenhouse gas emissions to zero. And I think it's important we |
|
recognize the more warming we let happen, the more the risks |
|
accumulate, but we've got to keep that goal as our centerpiece, |
|
net global--net-zero global greenhouse gas emissions. |
|
Dr. Francis. And I would just reiterate the fact that we |
|
are already seeing a large increase in the occurrence of |
|
extreme weather events and the intensity of many of those types |
|
of events, and that's only going to get worse as the globe |
|
continues to warm. |
|
And I just wanted to add also that it may seem arbitrary to |
|
pick 1.5 or 2.0-degree warming of the earth, but that's |
|
actually a very useful thing to do because we can use these |
|
very sophisticated climate models that have been developed by |
|
many groups over many years to simulate the kinds of extreme |
|
events and the kinds of changes in the physical climate system |
|
that would occur under both of those scenarios. They're very |
|
useful for helping us visualize what the world would look like |
|
under those two different kinds of conditions, and by doing |
|
that, we can see we really don't want a world with a 2-degree |
|
warming, and we certainly don't want to go past that, so it's a |
|
very useful exercise to go through visualizing these endpoints. |
|
Dr. Majkut. Yes, I would echo my colleagues that the way I |
|
think about climate risk as we progress through these various |
|
temperature levels is the planet doesn't really care about it |
|
being |
|
1.5 +C or 2 +C, but the risks accumulate as we go higher and |
|
higher up through warming levels. |
|
The thing that jumped out to me as I was preparing for the |
|
hearing was the effect on coral reefs, funny enough. At 1.5 +C |
|
scientists are projecting that up to 90 percent of coral reefs |
|
globally will be substantially diminished by warming events, |
|
and at 2 +C that number goes to over 99 percent, which would be |
|
utterly devastating. So when we think about these global |
|
targets, we could really interpret it--interpret those low- |
|
temperature targets as being hedges, right, looking to avoid |
|
catastrophic impacts on particular systems. |
|
Chairwoman Johnson. Dr. Ebi? |
|
Dr. Ebi. Another critical conclusion of the Special Report |
|
on Global Warming of 1.5 is that it is possible to stay below |
|
1.5 +C, and we can do that with current technologies. We have |
|
to increase our level of ambition. We have to be more |
|
proactive, but it's not impossible. So there is both the |
|
message that it's critical that we do so and that it's possible |
|
to make that commitment to stay below 1.5. |
|
And as the other speakers mentioned, as we increase from |
|
today, which is 1 +C above preindustrial to 1.5 to 2 degrees, |
|
that each unit of warming is associated with adverse |
|
consequences for our health, our livelihoods, our ecosystems, |
|
and for our economies. |
|
Chairwoman Johnson. Thank you very much. Before we proceed, |
|
I think we might have Dr. Mahowald ready for testimony. You may |
|
proceed. |
|
|
|
TESTIMONY OF DR. NATALIE M. MAHOWALD, |
|
|
|
IRVING PORTER CHURCH PROFESSOR OF ENGINEERING, |
|
|
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FACULTY DIRECTOR FOR THE ENVIRONMENT, |
|
|
|
ATKINSON CENTER FOR A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE, |
|
|
|
CORNELL UNIVERSITY |
|
|
|
Dr. Mahowald. Chairwoman Johnson, Ranking Member Lucas, and |
|
distinguished Members of the Committee, thank you for the |
|
opportunity to testify at today's hearing on the state of |
|
climate science and why it matters. I'd also like to thank the |
|
technical staff in the House and here at Cornell for making |
|
this happen. |
|
My name is Natalie Mahowald. I'm a Professor of Atmospheric |
|
Sciences at Cornell University with over 20 years' research |
|
expertise in climate science. I'm here today because--to |
|
explain why climate science matters and to put simply, it |
|
matters because the health and well-being of Americans matter, |
|
the U.S. economy matters, national security matters, and |
|
ensuring that the next generation of citizens can enjoy a |
|
better lifestyle than we do matters. |
|
Over the past year, we've witnessed record-breaking storms, |
|
precipitation, heat waves, fires, and flooding, all of which |
|
show the power of weather and the potential for changes in |
|
climate to harm human lives and livelihoods. At the same time, |
|
we're witnessing a global revolution in the development of |
|
innovative new technologies that hold the promise of delivering |
|
a low-carbon-emitting future. China and Europe in particular |
|
are investing heavily in these new technologies. The United |
|
States can take a leadership role in business, science, and |
|
technology to bring both clean energy and new jobs to thousands |
|
of Americans. |
|
These topics--climate change, its impacts, and the |
|
technologies to mitigate and adapt its effects--were the |
|
subject of the IPCC's special report on limiting warming to 1.5 |
|
+C, on which I was a lead author. This report comes at a |
|
critical time when we are rejecting the old-fashioned view that |
|
either we protect the environment or we promote business. The |
|
goal of the report is to identify solutions to reach low- |
|
climate targets while promoting economic growth and eradicating |
|
poverty. |
|
Scientific evidence is clear that human activities have |
|
caused warming of 1.0 +C since the late 1800s. If we keep |
|
warming at the same rate, we will pass 1.5 +C around 2040. Past |
|
emissions alone, however, are unlikely to cause 1.5 degrees |
|
warming. In other words, if we can cut emissions quickly |
|
enough, we can arrest the Earth's warming trends, keep |
|
temperatures below 1.5 degrees. This would require extremely |
|
ambitious emission cuts, 45 percent reduction in global |
|
emissions by 2030, which is much more ambitious than agreed to |
|
by the Paris Agreement and the voluntary reduction. In fact, |
|
the voluntary reductions agreed to through the Paris Agreement |
|
are likely to result in a warming of perhaps 3 +C. While this |
|
falls short of the stated goals of the Paris Agreement where |
|
governments agreed to keep warming below 2 degrees, it is much |
|
lower than the business-as-usual scenarios of up to a 5-degree |
|
increase in warming by 2100. |
|
The climate impacts will be lower at lower temperatures. |
|
Adaptation to climate change is easier at lower temperatures, |
|
but it's still going to be required. Whatever temperature |
|
target policymakers set as a goal, the 1.5 report provides a |
|
menu of policy options from which they can choose. This report |
|
also suggests an array of technologies and techniques across |
|
many sectors that may be deployed to strengthen the response to |
|
climate change. Combined, these policies, technologies, and |
|
techniques can help reduce climate change impacts either |
|
through mitigation or adaptation and are appropriate for any |
|
climate target. For example, reducing subsidies for fossil |
|
fuels or removing regulatory barriers for new energy-producing |
|
technology and promoting a stable business environment to low- |
|
carbon technologies and techniques can create jobs, save money, |
|
improve health, and mitigate climate change. |
|
Promoting policies at the local, State, and Federal levels |
|
that move existing financing into new areas of research |
|
development and deployment for the energy industry, |
|
transportation, agriculture, and building sectors can create |
|
new business opportunities and technologies while mitigating |
|
for climate. |
|
Finally, an important new area of research will be carbon |
|
dioxide removal and utilization technology. The world is very |
|
different today than it was 50 years ago in terms of how we |
|
live, how we interact with each other, virtually and in person, |
|
and globally. The world in 50 years will again be different, |
|
and the challenge of climate change will be one of the key ways |
|
that define our future in terms of mitigation and adaptation to |
|
climate change. Keeping America in a business and technological |
|
leadership role requires thoughtful investment in research |
|
development and deployment and innovative technologies and |
|
techniques that our international competitors are already |
|
investing in and will result in a more prosperous, healthier, |
|
safer America and world. |
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Thank you for the opportunity to testify. I look forward to |
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your questions. |
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[The prepared statement of Dr. Mahowald follows:] |
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[GRAPHIC(S) NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT] |
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Chairwoman Johnson. Thank you very much. |
|
Now, the Chair recognizes Mr. Lucas. |
|
Mr. Lucas. Thank you, Chairwoman. I appreciate that. |
|
As I said in my opening statement, I represent a rural |
|
district where weather trends and predictions are extremely |
|
important to the agricultural community. Dr. Majkut, what are |
|
some of the things that we're doing well, and what are some of |
|
the things we could do better to increase preparedness for |
|
weather events and other effects associated with climate |
|
change? |
|
Dr. Majkut. Thank you for the question. I actually think |
|
we're doing fairly well. You look at the National Climate |
|
Assessment, and it shows a real effort on the part of the |
|
scientific community to start understanding what the medium- |
|
and long-term effects of climate change are going to be for |
|
communities like your own. And just one of the things--and that |
|
activity should definitely continue. |
|
One of the things we might think about doing better in the |
|
Science Committee and the Science Committee generally can think |
|
about doing is getting decisionmakers information that's |
|
relevant on the timescales over which they make decisions, |
|
right? So you mentioned you represent a farming community and |
|
you're a farmer yourself. You understand that what you think |
|
about the weather is a question for the next few days and the |
|
stuff you're going to do over the next few days. It's not |
|
necessarily clear that a 30-year projection is a helpful thing |
|
for what you're deciding to do this year or next year. But if |
|
you're designing a water system or a stormwater system or |
|
something like that, something you want to have around for a |
|
long time, then you really do want to have information around |
|
what the next 30 or 50 or 100 years are possibly going to look |
|
like. |
|
So where I think the scientific community can fairly say is |
|
learning how to do that, how to transfer that information and |
|
how to make the--kind of that whole range of timeframes from |
|
decade to decades to centuries available to people who need to |
|
think in that regard. |
|
Mr. Lucas. My fear from this increased demand for immediate |
|
action is pushed down from the top, perhaps unrealistic |
|
proposals that aren't practical. The last thing we want to do |
|
is dramatically raise energy prices for America. Dr. Majkut, |
|
with the growing demand for fossil fuels worldwide, what can we |
|
do to ensure that we are leading the way with low-carbon energy |
|
solutions? |
|
Dr. Majkut. Well, in particular, I think the Committee |
|
should continue to focus on and continue to be supportive of |
|
advanced research efforts for the things we think we're going |
|
to need in the future, and that means reliable, affordable low- |
|
carbon energy. And in particular low carbon is the key thing |
|
that the climate is worried about, so it doesn't particularly |
|
matter whether that's energy that's going to come from a |
|
windmill or a fancy kind of battery or is going to come from |
|
fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage, or advanced |
|
nuclear. Instead, the target should be having a broad array of |
|
energy sources that can be used here and abroad at affordable |
|
levels and putting in place a research enterprise that is |
|
pursuing them with real vigor. |
|
Mr. Lucas. We make lots of investment in research in the |
|
Federal Government, and that's an important thing. How does the |
|
private sector advance what the government has started? |
|
Dr. Majkut. Well, the private sector is going to be the |
|
thing that actually scales those early run projects that |
|
received justifiable governmental support into use, right? |
|
That's the thing that's going to matter in sub-Saharan Africa, |
|
is going to matter in Southeast Asia, is going to matter in |
|
Oklahoma, how do those things compete in the marketplace. And |
|
so making sure that those innovations diffuse out is a matter |
|
of transitional policies and market design. |
|
Mr. Lucas. From the back door of my house on the farm in |
|
western Oklahoma I can see windmills, electric windmills from |
|
one horizon to the other. Dr. Majkut, you have referred to the |
|
goals set by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as |
|
ambitious. Is there a scenario in which those ambitious goals |
|
can be reached by transitioning to 100 percent renewable? By |
|
the way, those windmills don't always turn. They turn most of |
|
the time. We're a great source, but not all the time. Is there |
|
a scenario of how we could get to 100 percent renewable? |
|
Dr. Majkut. You could probably write one out on paper where |
|
it's physically possible, but I don't know that that's a |
|
necessary thing to do. And in particular if, like me and a lot |
|
of my colleagues and a lot of folks out in the--and your |
|
constituents are concerned about climate and you want to reduce |
|
greenhouse gas emissions, having a broad portfolio of options |
|
seems like the best choice, and there is a raft of literature |
|
showing you that if you want a reliable, low-cost energy system |
|
that has a lot less carbon emissions than we have today, you |
|
want a wide variety of technologies available. |
|
Mr. Lucas. Thank you, Doc. I yield back the balance of my |
|
time, Madam Chairman. |
|
Chairwoman Johnson. Thank you very much, Mr. Lucas. Ms. |
|
Stevens? |
|
Ms. Stevens. Thank you all so much for bringing your |
|
expertise and time to today's hearing. We're privileged to be |
|
able to engage with you. |
|
Certainly on this topic we have two choices. We can either |
|
embrace the need for climate change action and the embracing of |
|
climate science through fear or we can embrace it through |
|
opportunity. And I am so grateful that Dr. Mahowald was able to |
|
bring her testimony to us through video. And my questions are |
|
for you if we're able to ask questions of her. Are we able to |
|
do that? OK. Fabulous. So how are we as a country measuring up |
|
globally in terms of the actions that we are taking around |
|
Federal investments to develop innovative technologies and |
|
solutions to address the impacts of climate change? |
|
Dr. Mahowald. Thank you very much for the question. You're |
|
hearing me? Good. |
|
Ms. Stevens. Yes. |
|
Dr. Mahowald. The United States is starting to get the |
|
momentum to deal with climate change mitigation and adaptation. |
|
Much of the adaptation efforts of course have started at the |
|
local level, but they need to be moving across local, State, |
|
and Federal levels. We need to be dealing more with the |
|
adaptation efforts for climate change, as well as mitigation |
|
across the board. At this point the Federal efforts have not |
|
been consistent with what needs to happen for the ambitious |
|
targets for climate change. And some of the States have been |
|
reacting much more ambitiously than others, and there's several |
|
studies suggesting that Federal-level coordination of the |
|
States' efforts is much more efficient for the whole system in |
|
terms of transitioning to lower-carbon mitigation targets. |
|
Thank you. |
|
Ms. Stevens. Thank you. Well, I happen to represent |
|
suburban metro Detroit, the home of the Nation's automotive |
|
sector, and our automotive industry is in the race for the |
|
future, particularly around energy efficiency. And they see |
|
where China and Europe is moving, and they're sort of waiting |
|
on the United States. And so I was wondering if you could shed |
|
a little bit more light in terms of any projections that you |
|
might have that our country could capture in terms of return on |
|
investment. Should we be making the right strategic investments |
|
to lay the foundation for our industrial sector to be making |
|
the investments in carbon neutrality? |
|
Dr. Mahowald. Well, the transportation sector is an |
|
important sector, and of course Detroit is the home of that in |
|
the United States. Our competitors are investing heavily in |
|
low-carbon options. China is trying to get rid of internal |
|
combustion engines. India also has efforts in this area. The |
|
United States has the technological and the business innovation |
|
advantage. If we can use this, we can maintain our advantage in |
|
the automobile industry and other industries as well. But more |
|
coordination across the--at the Federal level, across the |
|
Federal, State, and local levels will really help in this |
|
effort. Thank you. |
|
Ms. Stevens. Thank you. I think it's fair to say that |
|
there's the ``if not but for'' role the government can play. |
|
Certainly industry is making their investments, but they're |
|
waiting on the Federal Government to lay the foundation, set |
|
the table, as we have in many ways where we created the |
|
highways and we plowed fields, but we need to set the table. |
|
And I want to get Dr. Kopp in just quickly with my |
|
remaining time available because you also mentioned this in |
|
your testimony saying that climate change is not just an |
|
environmental challenge, it's an economic challenge. It's an |
|
infrastructure challenge, a public health challenge, and a |
|
national security challenge. And while we have your great |
|
expertise in the room, I was wondering if you could maybe give |
|
us a few points around how the United States can continue to be |
|
a leader in addressing the impacts of climate change while also |
|
maintaining our global economic power. |
|
Dr. Kopp. Well, I want to come back to the thing I said at |
|
the very end of my remarks, which is that we need to make |
|
climate change a routine and integrated part of decisionmaking, |
|
public and private sector, Federal, State, and local, right? We |
|
make lots of decisions, particularly when we think about, say, |
|
infrastructure investments or particularly when we think about |
|
national security that play out over decades. And any time |
|
we're thinking about changes over decades, we're thinking about |
|
a world where the climate is changing in ways that we can |
|
project. And so we have to move beyond using the past as a |
|
guide to what we do and, when we're building a new rail tunnel |
|
under the Hudson, say, or we're building new water |
|
infrastructure, right, those need to be planned with all the |
|
range of possible futures that we might project in mind. |
|
Ms. Stevens. Yes, thank you. I yield back the remainder of |
|
my time. |
|
Chairwoman Johnson. Thank you very much. Mr. Brooks? |
|
Mr. Brooks. Thank you, Madam Chairman. |
|
Dr. Kopp, I'm looking at your written testimony as opposed |
|
to your oral testimony. On page three you state, quote, |
|
``Climate change is real, it is here now, and humans are |
|
responsible for it,'' end quote. Is that an accurate statement |
|
of your quote? |
|
Dr. Kopp. Yes, it is. |
|
Mr. Brooks. And on page five of your written testimony you |
|
state, quote, ``Global average sea level has risen by about 8 |
|
inches since 1900,'' end quote, citing the Climate Science |
|
Special Report, Earth National Climate Assessment. Is that an |
|
accurate reading of that quote? |
|
Dr. Kopp. Yes, it is. |
|
Mr. Brooks. Are you familiar with the Earth's last glacial |
|
maximum roughly 21,000 years ago? |
|
Dr. Kopp. Yes, I am. |
|
Mr. Brooks. And is it fair to say that sea levels during |
|
the last glacial maximum were roughly 400 feet lower than they |
|
are today? |
|
Dr. Kopp. Yes, it is. |
|
Mr. Brooks. And would it also be fair to say, then, the sea |
|
levels over the last 21,000 years, 400 divided by 21,000 or 210 |
|
centuries, sea levels have risen on average over that 21,000- |
|
year period of time at roughly 2 feet per century? |
|
Dr. Kopp. Well, it was concentrated in the first half of |
|
that time, but yes. |
|
Mr. Brooks. From the 21,000- to the 7,000-year-ago period |
|
is the concentration, then it still increased--sea levels did-- |
|
but at a much lower rate during the last 7,000 years? |
|
Dr. Kopp. When they stopped rising is a scientific |
|
uncertainty, but certainly that by 7,000 years ago the giant |
|
ice sheet that was sitting on North America was gone, and so |
|
the contribution to sea level that came from that ice sheet |
|
ended. |
|
Mr. Brooks. So apparently, somewhere between 21,000 and |
|
7,000 years ago we had a very significant rise in sea levels, |
|
much more than the 2-feet-per-century average of the overall |
|
21,000-year period. Did humans cause that? |
|
Dr. Kopp. No, they did not. |
|
Mr. Brooks. They did not. So there are other causes to sea- |
|
level rises other than humans, and at least in this instance |
|
over the last 21,000 years we're looking at an average sea- |
|
level rise of 2 feet per century on average, 210 centuries, a |
|
little over 400 feet total. What was the cause of that? |
|
Dr. Kopp. Well, if you go back 21,000 years ago, my home |
|
State was sitting in its northern edge is under about a mile of |
|
ice, and that ice sheet, which we call the Lorne Tide, had a |
|
whole lot of water locked up in it. And so as that ice melted, |
|
sea level rose. We're now in a very different world where |
|
there's--the ice on the planet is largely in--almost |
|
exclusively in Antarctica and Greenland, and so what we're |
|
concerned about now---- |
|
Mr. Brooks. OK. I'm not asking what we're concerned about |
|
now. I'm asking what caused the 400 feet in sea-level rise over |
|
the last 21,000 years? Would it be fair to say that it was |
|
global warming? |
|
Dr. Kopp. Yes, it would be. |
|
Mr. Brooks. And what is it that caused that global warming |
|
that began roughly 18 to 21,000 years ago? |
|
Dr. Kopp. So that--we were in an Ice Age roughly 18,000 |
|
years ago, and the differences between the Ice Ages and the |
|
periods like we're in now, which are called interglacials |
|
because we're not in a glacial period, are paced by changes in |
|
Earth's orbit, amplified by changes in carbon dioxide. |
|
Mr. Brooks. OK. So there have been fluctuations in orbit, |
|
perhaps changes in carbon dioxide, and perhaps also some change |
|
in the actual tilt? |
|
Dr. Kopp. Yes, well, when I talk about changes in orbit on |
|
that frequency you're talking about where Earth is pointing, |
|
what we call a precession. |
|
Mr. Brooks. OK. And during the last glacial maximum, is it |
|
fair to say that almost all of Canada was uninhabitable, along |
|
with New England, New York, everything north of the Ohio River |
|
was in effect uninhabitable? |
|
Dr. Kopp. Certainly on the east side of the country, yes. |
|
Mr. Brooks. And would it also be fair to say that certainly |
|
at least in that instance, global warming was a desirable thing |
|
if you're a Canadian? |
|
Dr. Kopp. Well, there weren't many Canadians, but yes. |
|
Mr. Brooks. Well, there weren't any back then. |
|
Dr. Kopp. Over in the West there were, but yes. |
|
Mr. Brooks. OK. Now, let's talk about the remedy for a |
|
second. You may recall that in 2008 Dr. Steven Chu, who later |
|
became President Obama's Secretary of Energy, stated that, to |
|
combat climate change, quote, ``Somehow, we have to figure out |
|
how to boost the price of gasoline to the levels in Europe,'' |
|
end quote, which was about $8.70 per gallon. Do you agree with |
|
Steven Chu that that is a remedy that the United States should |
|
implement? |
|
Dr. Kopp. Well, there's lots of policy solutions. My job |
|
is---- |
|
Mr. Brooks. I'm just asking about this one. Yes or no? |
|
Dr. Kopp. We are dumping CO<INF>2</INF> into the |
|
atmosphere. One way of dealing with the problem would be to put |
|
a price on carbon that reflected the cost of that carbon |
|
dioxide is imposing on the world. |
|
Mr. Brooks. Is that a yes or a no? |
|
Dr. Kopp. I'm going to give you the scientific answer and |
|
say it depends. It's one of the solutions that would work. |
|
Mr. Brooks. All right. Thank you, Madam Chairman. I |
|
appreciate the time. |
|
Mrs. Fletcher [presiding]. Thank you. I'll now recognize |
|
Mr. Tonko. |
|
Mr. Tonko. Thank you, Madam Chairman. And I thank |
|
Chairwoman Johnson for holding what I think is a very important |
|
hearing today and for our witnesses for joining us. |
|
I am beyond excited that, as a Committee, we are committing |
|
to seriously examining and addressing the urgent threat of |
|
climate change. I'm glad that this majority is focused on |
|
climate change and that we have stepped up to face the task at |
|
hand. And in particular, as a Member of the Science Committee, |
|
I am proud that after so many years of inaction, we are moving |
|
forward and giving this critical issue the time and focus it |
|
deserves and requires. Inaction is expensive. |
|
As we address climate change, our planning must be science- |
|
based and evidence-based. The overwhelming majority of the |
|
scientific community knows that climate change is happening and |
|
that we are already feeling the impacts. The scientific |
|
evidence on climate change clearly tells us that we need to |
|
take action. Taking action means there will be challenges but |
|
also opportunities. We have a real opportunity to transform our |
|
economy to one that is cleaner, safer, and more just. We have |
|
the chance to advance clean-energy technologies, design the |
|
infrastructure of the future that will help communities endure |
|
and rethink every industry we have ever known. Investing in |
|
solutions and resilience today will help manage and limit those |
|
risks and serve as a foundation for job creation, healthier |
|
communities, and economic opportunity. |
|
It has been a decade since the House last seriously |
|
attempted to address climate change, and with that, Dr. |
|
Mahowald--and I will address you as a fellow upstate New |
|
Yorker. And I know what weather can mean at this time of year, |
|
so we're sorry that you're not with us, but thank you for |
|
joining us via technology. So, Doctor, how has our |
|
understanding of climate science and its impacts developed over |
|
the past 10 years? |
|
Dr. Mahowald. Thank you very much for the question and for |
|
your understanding of upstate New York's weather. |
|
Our understanding of climate science over the last 10 years |
|
has really benefited from the leaps in technology in terms of |
|
computer simulation, high--some of the big data analysis |
|
methods that we now have. And some of what that has allowed us |
|
to do is to really see the impacts of small changes in |
|
temperature on humans and ecosystems. And this was highlighted |
|
in the 1.5 report. |
|
Often what scientists do is we simply look at the big |
|
changes, but for this particular report we were asked to look |
|
at the difference between 1.5 and 2 degrees, and we focused on |
|
that. Almost 6,000 new studies were assessed in that report and |
|
really focused on what small changes in temperature can do in |
|
terms of impacts on humans. And that report highlights that |
|
small temperature changes, for example, can have a big impact. |
|
Thank you. |
|
Mr. Tonko. Thank you very much. And when many talk about |
|
climate change, they associate the tone of urgency. Do you |
|
think there's more or less urgency than we faced a decade ago? |
|
Dr. Mahowald. Thank you for the question. I think there's |
|
more urgency. Every day there's more people on this planet |
|
asking for more energy, and we're building more facilities. And |
|
right now, the technologies that people use, just by default, |
|
are technologies that emit a lot of carbon dioxide. The faster |
|
we can start using research, developing and deploying |
|
technologies that don't emit as much CO<INF>2</INF>, this can |
|
snowball into making it more and more economically feasible and |
|
politically feasible. All the infrastructure will be there to |
|
have lower-carbon technologies deployed. So the urgency is |
|
twofold. It's both because we're accumulating this CO<INF>2</INF> |
|
in the atmosphere, and in addition, we're accumulating |
|
infrastructure and technology that emits a lot of |
|
CO<INF>2</INF>. So there's a lot of urgency on the technology |
|
side, and then of course we're seeing more and more impacts on |
|
people. Thank you. |
|
Mr. Tonko. Thank you very much for your input and that of |
|
Cornell routinely on these issues. |
|
Dr. Ebi, according to both the IPCC's special report and |
|
the NCA 4, climate change takes a toll on mental health. Those |
|
who survive extreme weather events and see their communities |
|
damaged can suffer from depression, anxiety, suicidal thoughts, |
|
and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). A report notes that |
|
droughts have led to an increase in alcohol and drug use and |
|
higher temperatures are associated with more aggressive |
|
behaviors. How does climate change affect mental health, and |
|
what steps can the medical community take to ease the |
|
psychological burden? |
|
Dr. Ebi. Thank you. That's an excellent summary of how |
|
climate change can affect mental health through exposure to |
|
extreme events. There needs to be increased awareness about |
|
this across the health professions so that there are greater |
|
actions when we have these extreme events, that we do have |
|
mental healthcare professionals available to help people after |
|
an event. And we need a lot greater preparedness for these |
|
events. If the United States was as prepared as it should be, |
|
we wouldn't have seen the impacts we've seen over the last |
|
couple of years. So investing in adaptation, investing in |
|
making sure we understand what future risks could look like, |
|
we're better able then to handle all of the challenges, |
|
including the mental health ones. Thank you. |
|
Mr. Tonko. Thank you very much. |
|
With that, I yield back, Madam Chair. |
|
Mrs. Fletcher. Thank you. I will now recognize Mr. Weber |
|
for 5 minutes. |
|
Mr. Weber. I thank the gentlelady from Texas. Dr. Majkut, |
|
you mentioned that there is, quote, ``No better incentive for |
|
us than the private sector, but if you really want energy |
|
innovation, you need to show the innovators there's a market |
|
waiting for them,'' end quote. Dr. Majkut, I ran an air- |
|
conditioning company for 35 years, built it from the ground up, |
|
and I know that when the weather got hot, my business on the |
|
Gulf Coast of Texas was in great demand. I will tell you this: |
|
The more the Department of Energy raised energy ratings and |
|
required that manufacturers build higher-efficient equipment, |
|
the more that those units cost. And the more they cost--air |
|
conditioning went up--the more the demand for that high- |
|
efficient equipment went down because people were already hard- |
|
pressed in living their lives and they couldn't afford higher |
|
prices. And on the Gulf Coast of Texas you don't want to be |
|
without air conditioning. Now, I don't know how many of you all |
|
live in the southern part of the country, but it's extremely |
|
important to us. |
|
Applying this same developing concept to clean-energy |
|
technologies, Dr. Majkut, how do we show innovators that there |
|
is a demand and a market waiting for them? |
|
Dr. Majkut. Well, it depends on the area in which you're |
|
working, right? |
|
Mr. Weber. Did I mention I live on the Gulf Coast of Texas? |
|
Dr. Majkut. Sure did, sir. |
|
Mr. Weber. Yes. |
|
Dr. Majkut. There's a lot of things government can do to |
|
create markets for innovation. A lot of them fall into other |
|
committees' jurisdiction, right? You can use tax policy, you |
|
could use incentive policies. I can't speak to the air- |
|
conditioning example largely because it's not my area of |
|
expertise, but I do know that we can look at cost-cutting |
|
measures, we can look at technological innovation to make more |
|
efficient air conditioners as an example, less costly at the |
|
front. We can look at financing mechanisms that amortize a more |
|
efficient air conditioner costs less to use over time, so how |
|
do you find ways to help people make an upfront capital |
|
investment, et cetera. |
|
Mr. Weber. OK. I'm going to move along a little bit. That's |
|
a great thought. As Ranking Member Lucas said, the push down |
|
from the top was the last thing we want to do because it would |
|
dramatically raise energy prices. And then there was some |
|
discussion between the witnesses with one of the Members about |
|
raising those energy prices. Do we raise those energy prices to |
|
whatever it takes? I know, Dr. Kopp, you didn't have an exact |
|
price, but do we just commit to raising them to whatever it |
|
takes? Dr. Kopp? |
|
Dr. Kopp. I would say a number of the policy solutions |
|
you're talking about would raise the per-unit energy price, but |
|
the idea behind trying to get the markets to work is that you |
|
wouldn't necessarily be raising the amount that people are |
|
spending on energy because, to take the air-conditioning |
|
example that Dr. Majkut was talking about, right, it costs a |
|
little bit more up front just like solar costs a little bit |
|
more than a coal-powered plant upfront---- |
|
Mr. Weber. But the---- |
|
Dr. Kopp. But you spend less over time---- |
|
Mr. Weber. OK. I---- |
|
Dr. Kopp [continuing]. And so not--a lot of these policies |
|
wouldn't necessarily---- |
|
Mr. Weber. So---- |
|
Dr. Kopp [continuing]. Increase---- |
|
Mr. Weber. Let me move down. So, Dr. Francis, whatever |
|
price it takes to get to that point, is that kind of the |
|
philosophy here? Does it matter if we raise energy prices? |
|
Dr. Francis. I don't think it's fair to say that whatever |
|
cost it takes, but I think we need to have a strategic plan |
|
for---- |
|
Mr. Weber. Would you put a percentage on that? Raise them |
|
10 percent, 20 percent, 15 percent? |
|
Dr. Francis. Energy policy is not my area of expertise---- |
|
Mr. Weber. OK. |
|
Dr. Francis [continuing]. And economics is not in my field |
|
of expertise---- |
|
Mr. Weber. Fair enough. |
|
Dr. Francis [continuing]. But I feel that putting a higher |
|
price on energy---- |
|
Mr. Weber. Let me jump---- |
|
Dr. Francis [continuing]. Would do what we want it to do. |
|
Mr. Weber. Let me jump over to Dr. Ebi here. Any price, 10 |
|
percent more, 15 percent more? |
|
Dr. Ebi. The question is partially what's the price but |
|
also how do you manage that. And is some of that price turned |
|
back---- |
|
Mr. Weber. Well, that's a growing technology, and we want |
|
America to be in the lead, American business and enterprise, |
|
right, to be in the lead for this, but I think there is a price |
|
where you make it so untenable for Americans that all of a |
|
sudden they kind of get turned off to the idea, and we don't |
|
want to do that. That's my point. |
|
Let me move on. Mr. Lucas said that in his State, he's got |
|
lots of windmills. And I think you said you could see them from |
|
one horizon to the next. Have you ever noticed that on the |
|
hottest day of the year the windmills aren't turning, and |
|
that's why it's the hottest day of the year? I mean, it's |
|
unbelievable that--we can't rely on those. |
|
When it comes to national security--and you mentioned this, |
|
Dr. Kopp, actually in your comments--we're going to need a |
|
backup that our country can depend on, and it's going to have |
|
to be fossil fuel. I can tell you about requirements for |
|
energy. I'm working on nuclear energy capability. It needs to |
|
be at the table. It needs to be a major part of our portfolio. |
|
So we've got to take these things into account. And I |
|
appreciate you all being here today. And I'm out of time, Ms. |
|
Fletcher. |
|
Mrs. Fletcher. Thank you. I'll now recognize Mr. Foster for |
|
5 minutes. |
|
Mr. Foster. Thank you, Madam Chair. And first, I'd like to |
|
thank Chairwoman Johnson for convening this important hearing. |
|
The climate challenges facing humanity are large, and |
|
unfortunately, serious debate on the best paths forward has |
|
often been stifled by the politization of this issue, at least |
|
in this Committee. |
|
For years, too often we found ourselves wasting time |
|
arguing with non-technical witnesses about, for example, |
|
whether or not it's a matter of scientific debate, whether or |
|
not it would be a good thing if the Greenland ice sheet melted. |
|
But--and so I was really thrilled to see some of the changes |
|
that appear to be occurring in this Committee. |
|
Over the last several years I have to say on a personal |
|
note I have grown truly tired of introducing myself as the only |
|
Ph.D. natural scientist in the U.S. Congress. And to that end, |
|
I am thrilled to welcome onto the Committee and into Congress |
|
Dr. Jim Baird as the second Ph.D. national--natural scientist |
|
in the U.S. Congress. And I would also like to congratulate my |
|
Republican colleagues on their wisdom in appointing him as the |
|
Ranking Member of the Research Subcommittee. |
|
More to that point, I'd also like to thank Ranking Member |
|
Lucas and my Republican colleagues for selecting Dr. Majkut as |
|
their witness for this hearing. He's someone with a Ph.D. in |
|
relevant science and someone with views who are--which are |
|
inside the scientific mainstream, and that's refreshing. He is |
|
also someone obviously who understands that the question here |
|
is not whether or not this problem is real but rather what is |
|
the most cost-effective way of solving it, and that is a |
|
refreshing change because on this Committee, we have to look |
|
deeply at the balance of research and policy spending to solve |
|
this problem. |
|
In terms of that, the best way forward, particularly the |
|
newer Members on the Committee will be faced with just a |
|
mountain of things that have been written on this, and what I |
|
consider the best synthesis that I've seen was actually |
|
presented by former Energy Secretary Moniz in his testimony to |
|
the Senate last week. In a report that he highlighted by the |
|
Energy Futures Initiative, which he's one of the leaders on, |
|
entitled, ``Advancing the Landscape of Clean Energy |
|
Innovation'' really to my mind touches the main points of what |
|
knobs we should be operating in our government both in terms of |
|
technological research, private-sector efforts, and public- |
|
private partnerships to solve this problem. |
|
And so with that, I would at this point like to ask |
|
unanimous consent to enter into the record the report of the |
|
Energy Futures Initiative entitled, ``Advancing the Landscape |
|
of the Clean Energy Innovation.'' |
|
Mrs. Fletcher. Without objection. |
|
Mr. Foster. And so now I actually have one technical |
|
question for the entire panel. It seems to me that one of the |
|
changes in the last several years in the thinking on climate, |
|
is the rising of the profile of methane as a significant |
|
greenhouse gas, that if you look at the impressive progress, |
|
apparent progress in the decarbonization of the United States, |
|
a big part of that is by converting coal to natural gas use. |
|
And it now appears true that a significant--a large single- |
|
digit percentage of the methane that we burn actually gets |
|
vented, wasted, vented directly to the atmosphere without-- |
|
before combustion. And so if that is true, the fact that it's |
|
such a potent greenhouse gas really negates a lot of the |
|
progress in converting coal to natural gas. And apparently the |
|
technology to detect the thousands of small methane leaks is |
|
tough, and it's not going to be cheap. So I wonder if you had |
|
any thinking on what we do about the methane problem and where |
|
the research that could really make a difference there would |
|
be. We can just go down the line if you want. |
|
Dr. Kopp. Yes, I mean, I think we're sort of throwing money |
|
away and hurting the environment when you have natural gas |
|
leaks and there has been a lot of discussion about how much-- |
|
how large those leaks are. All the incentives are there to try |
|
to solve those problems, and if it's not happening, that might |
|
be a good area for this Committee to figure out how to push it |
|
along. |
|
Mr. Foster. Yes, I think one of the difficulties I've heard |
|
pronounced is that it's simply finding a very large number of |
|
small leaks is not cost-effective in terms of the savings in |
|
natural gas, and that's one of the things that makes it tough |
|
at least with current technology. |
|
Dr. Francis. So I would just like to bring up another issue |
|
related to methane, and that is the fact that the permafrost |
|
areas in the high Arctic are warming dramatically. We expect to |
|
see a lot more thawing happen. And when permafrost thaws, the |
|
biological material that's frozen in those soils can decompose |
|
then and become either methane or carbon dioxide. And we're |
|
seeing the warming happening much faster up there in general |
|
and in the Arctic overall. And the loss of sea ice, which is a |
|
clear symptom of global warming, is contributing to the |
|
acceleration of that thawing of the permafrost. So this is |
|
another issue that I think we need to take very seriously, |
|
especially in the methane discussion. |
|
Mr. Foster. Thank you. And it appears my---- |
|
Mrs. Fletcher. Mr. Foster, your time has expired. |
|
I'd now like to recognize Mr. Babin. |
|
Mr. Babin. Thank you, Madam Chair. I appreciate it. Thank |
|
you all for being here as expert witnesses. |
|
And we heard a little history a while ago. I had to leave |
|
the room for a minute, but I did catch the end of it, very |
|
interesting because I love history. Are you familiar, Dr. Kopp, |
|
with the Norse settlements in Iceland and Greenland but--in and |
|
around the year 1000 and that there was farming and animal |
|
husbandry in Greenland for nearly 300 years, which lasted up |
|
until about 1300 and then we had what we call the Little Ice |
|
Age, which lasted up until about 1700, and then the Greenland |
|
colony disappeared. But it's archaeologically sound evidence |
|
that told us that it did last that long. What could have |
|
possibly caused the climate to change so much that we would |
|
have farming and animal husbandry in Greenland for a period of |
|
2-1/2, 3 centuries? Could you have blamed that on human |
|
emissions or can you give me an answer to that question? |
|
Dr. Kopp. So there are fluctuations that we see in |
|
circulation in the North Atlantic. There's something called the |
|
North Atlantic oscillation. That might have had a role to play |
|
there. The Little Ice Age, which was then triggered, may have |
|
had something to do with volcanic emissions. The details of |
|
that are still an area of research. A lot of that is more of a |
|
localized phenomenon in the North Atlantic. There's some global |
|
temperature change, but that global temperature cooling |
|
actually starts around 1000 just so you---- |
|
Mr. Babin. What you're saying is we don't really know, but |
|
in the opinion of everybody sitting at the table up there, was |
|
it more advantageous to have a little warming going on around |
|
the globe or was it more advantageous to have a little cooling |
|
going around the globe? Because during the Little Ice Age we |
|
lost lots and lots of humans to various causes that are in |
|
response and as a direct result of dropping temperatures. How |
|
would you answer it? |
|
Dr. Kopp. Well, it's a---- |
|
Mr. Babin. I would say that it would be more advantageous |
|
to have lived in a climate that was a little bit warmer. |
|
Dr. Kopp. Yes, so I would say that over that period we're |
|
talking about a very small change in global temperature, |
|
roughly .3 +F, so it's worth keeping that in context when we're |
|
talking about the |
|
2 +F, so almost 10 times as much than we've seen over the last |
|
century. |
|
Mr. Babin. Anybody else want to answer that? |
|
Dr. Majkut. Yes, Mr. Babin, I think the way I think about |
|
it is not that there is an ideal temperature that we know for |
|
certain that human flourishing will be maximal. Science can't |
|
really tell us that in a meaningful way. What we do know is |
|
we've built our society around the temperatures that we've |
|
encountered over the last 200, 300 years. And as Dr. Kopp says, |
|
we're fixing to change those temperatures quite a bit. And that |
|
rapid transition is the cause for concern. |
|
Mr. Babin. But we do know that when Canada and the eastern |
|
part--upper part of the United States was uninhabitable during |
|
the Ice Age, that it certainly wouldn't have been conducive to |
|
economic development. I just feel like, you know, there's no |
|
question that our climate is changing, no question whatsoever, |
|
but to blame everything on human activity and expect the United |
|
States of America, the taxpayers in our country, to pick up the |
|
tab to pay carbon taxes and for carbon footprints and lower |
|
their quality of life and standard of living and increase the |
|
cost of living while our biggest polluters around the world |
|
absolutely go scot-free and continue. So it's hard for me to |
|
justify how we could be expected to pay that kind of a price. |
|
And I want to ask one more question, too. Do you support a |
|
transparent and full accounting of cost, benefits, and |
|
projected impacts to the global climate of individual climate |
|
policy proposals? I'm going to ask Dr. Ebi. Is it the way you |
|
pronounce your name? I'm sorry. |
|
Dr. Ebi. That's fine. It's a difficult name. But thank you |
|
for the question. |
|
Mr. Babin. OK. |
|
Dr. Ebi. We do need a full accounting, and that does happen |
|
under the United Nations' Framework Convention on Climate |
|
Change at least in terms of emissions. And we know the United |
|
States alone is responsible for 25 percent of all emissions. |
|
There are efforts to try and understand better how much the |
|
cost of those emissions are in terms of impacts on our health, |
|
impacts on our ecosystems, our livelihoods, on our economies. |
|
And there's a growing amount of work looking at what the |
|
benefits of action would be. |
|
Just from the health sector we know that the health |
|
benefits of many mitigation policies are of the same order of |
|
magnitude as the cost of mitigation, that if we get more people |
|
to ride their bicycles, to walk to work, to change their diets, |
|
to have less exposure to particulates, the avoided premature |
|
deaths, the avoided hospitalizations are a very large amount of |
|
money that would offset the cost of emission reductions. So we |
|
do need to look much more broadly at the cost and the benefits, |
|
taking into account who bears the cost and who reaps the |
|
benefits and how to make sure that this is done in a way that's |
|
as fair as possible. |
|
Mr. Babin. But if we are responsible for 25 percent of the |
|
emissions, as you say, then why should we pay nearly 100 |
|
percent of the cost? Because it sounds like that's the |
|
direction that you folks would have us go. And I think my time |
|
is over and expired, so---- |
|
Mrs. Fletcher. Yes, sir, I believe your time is expired. |
|
Mr. Babin. Thank you. |
|
Mrs. Fletcher. Now, I actually am going to recognize myself |
|
for 5 minutes for questions. |
|
And I represent the western side of Houston and the greater |
|
Houston area along the Texas Gulf Coast along with some of my |
|
colleagues on the panel. It is also the heart of the energy |
|
industry. And Dr. Francis mentioned hurricane Harvey in her |
|
remarks this morning. Harvey, as we all know, was one of the |
|
most devastating disasters in our history. It was also our |
|
third 500-year storm in a span of less than 3 years, so we are |
|
seeing increased frequency and intensity of weather events. We |
|
are also seeing the risks of sea-level rise and concern about |
|
storm surge in our community. |
|
And in our district, we understand that climate change is |
|
real, and we believe working together in a collaborative way is |
|
the best approach for us to tackle this challenge. That means |
|
collaboration between research institutions, industry, and |
|
governments at the Federal, State, and local levels. So we |
|
believe that everyone has to be a part of the solution and a |
|
part of addressing this challenge. |
|
And with that in mind, I have a few questions relating to |
|
these topics, first for Dr. Francis. Can you tell us briefly |
|
what the science tells us now about the intensity of the |
|
extreme weather events that we've experienced and how that |
|
might or will change in the future? |
|
Dr. Francis. Yes, thank you for the question. As I |
|
mentioned in my oral testimony, there are certain things that |
|
we know for sure are happening in the climate system. And |
|
Houston is probably in the crosshairs of a lot of those. You |
|
have seen, as you said, increased flooding. We know that heavy |
|
precipitation events are increasing dramatically. You've seen |
|
heat waves increasing. You've even seen drought increasing. And |
|
we also expect to see tropical storms intensifying more |
|
rapidly, and potentially we expect to see more of the very |
|
strongest tropical storms. A lot of those things are very |
|
clear, and what is a little less clear relates back to Harvey |
|
and some of the extreme events that you all have witnessed and |
|
experienced, and that is we're also seeing an increase in the |
|
persistence of weather regimes. So it could be dry, it could be |
|
hot, it could be cold, it could be wet, but we're seeing an |
|
increased persistence, and we believe that that is also related |
|
to climate change. |
|
Mrs. Fletcher. Thank you very much. And, more broadly for |
|
the panel, we do believe it's important to include everyone in |
|
working together on these solutions, so, in particular, do any |
|
of you have experience with or suggestions on how the energy |
|
industry can work together with your institutions and with |
|
those of us who are making policy to be part of the solution |
|
toward climate mitigation? And I should also add I believe that |
|
they already are, and certainly in my district most of the |
|
industries have acknowledged and are working to combat climate |
|
change, but any specific ideas you have of policies or programs |
|
you think would be helpful for this Committee to know? |
|
Dr. Kopp. Well, so there's sort of a style of doing science |
|
that I think very much gets at this, and that's science that is |
|
sort of stakeholder-engaging and the jargon is |
|
transdisciplinary, but basically the idea is start with a |
|
problem, right? The problem is the resilience of the energy |
|
system off of Houston. And then you're going to get together |
|
the different disciplines that you need to address it, you're |
|
going to get together stakeholders, and you're going to do the |
|
research together in a partnership. And that's a very different |
|
style of doing research than what's traditionally happened in |
|
universities. And I think we need to be rethinking a little bit |
|
of that part of the climate science enterprise to sort of make |
|
this more of a problem-focused thing. |
|
Mrs. Fletcher. Thank you. Dr. Ebi? |
|
Dr. Ebi. Thank you. It's a very good question, and I want |
|
to echo that working with stakeholders is critically important |
|
in this process. And to step back more broadly and say that |
|
companies want to have healthy workers and healthy communities. |
|
They don't want to see their workers flooded, they don't want |
|
to see the impacts on their workers and on their families. And |
|
so there are ways that one can work together to try and ensure |
|
the resilience of the community while the companies work to |
|
ensure their own resilience to make sure that, as these extreme |
|
events occur, they are not affected, that their facilities are |
|
not affected, so facilitating those partnerships at the |
|
Federal, State, and local levels is critically important. |
|
Mrs. Fletcher. Thank you very much. My time has expired, so |
|
I will yield back the remainder and now recognize Mr. Baird for |
|
5 minutes. |
|
Mr. Baird. Thank you, Madam Chair. And this is my first |
|
congressional Committee hearing, so I hope you'll excuse me if |
|
I make any procedural errors. And I'd prefer you not express |
|
those to me. I'll just take that. I'm honored to be here in |
|
that capacity and to be able to have the discussion that we're |
|
having today about climate change. I do appreciate my colleague |
|
Dr. Foster for those kind words. |
|
But as a farmer and an animal scientist, I know the |
|
importance of leaving the land healthier than how we found it |
|
for our next generation. I've got grandchildren, but I think |
|
it's important to those children and grandchildren. And so the |
|
health of the land has always been a concern for agriculture |
|
people, and that is important to our ability to feed ourselves. |
|
But in that vein, I also recognize that the natural |
|
evolution process over time, the tremendous ability of |
|
mammalian tissue or mammals and plant tissue to adapt to their |
|
environment, I don't see much discussion about that in some of |
|
the presentations. But I do find your presentations extremely |
|
interesting and very insightful. |
|
I would like to just point out a couple things. Dr. Ebi, |
|
not picking on you in any particular reason, but, for example, |
|
we mention 729 children died from heatstroke from 1990 to 2014, |
|
so I guess my question there is, is that because the |
|
automobiles were better, or the children are less exposed to |
|
their environment than we have in previous centuries and so on? |
|
So I think we need to take those kind of factors in when we |
|
make those predictions about the impact of the climate on some |
|
of the issues we're concerned about. |
|
For example, the elderly, are we older as a generation, so |
|
we're becoming more susceptible as we age and so compared to 50 |
|
years ago we're living a lot longer. And so those are just |
|
things that if you want to respond to that, you're welcome to. |
|
It was really more of a comment than anything, but I'll give |
|
you that option. |
|
Dr. Ebi. Well, thank you. And thank you for those comments, |
|
and I do have a couple of short responses. On the evolution, |
|
the climate now is changing faster than it's been in 10,000 |
|
years, and so it is a challenge for many of our plants and |
|
other species to try and evolve fast enough in the face of this |
|
rapid rate of change. |
|
In terms of the children dying in cars, the data were only |
|
collected over a certain period, so we don't have data from |
|
before then. But the point is as temperatures are going up and |
|
we're seeing more heat waves, we're seeing higher temperatures |
|
in summer, people don't realize how quickly cars heat up. And |
|
so it's terribly unfortunate how many infants are dying in cars |
|
because people don't realize, as they say I'm only going to be |
|
gone for a minute, that that minute may be too much for an |
|
infant in the higher temperatures we're experiencing now. |
|
Mr. Baird. I really understand that and can appreciate |
|
that, and I think that's a tremendous mistake that parents |
|
make. But my question comes back to, is that because the cars |
|
are tighter, the windshields are better, the glass heats up |
|
more, and so on? No excuse for leaving those children, and I |
|
don't want to comment about that. That's OK. We're OK there. |
|
But I do have some questions for Dr. Majkut. In the |
|
developing field of technology, the United States, I think we |
|
ought to be a leader in that because we have the ability and |
|
the talent to do it. We have the research capability. So my |
|
question to you is, are we behind other countries in our |
|
developing a cleaner environment, cleaner energy sources? |
|
Dr. Majkut. It's a tough question to answer. I think the |
|
answer probably varies on exactly where you answer. I think in |
|
bulk, no. The U.S. research enterprise is really strong. We |
|
provide a lot of resources to that enterprise. And if you look |
|
at environmental performance not just on climate but on other |
|
issues over the last decades, we're doing pretty well. |
|
Mr. Baird. So would it be fair to say that our country |
|
makes a lot more investments in cleaner energy sources than |
|
another country around the world in terms of reducing our |
|
pollution even though we use a lot of the fossil fuels? |
|
Dr. Majkut. I don't know. I don't know the relative |
|
spending, sorry. |
|
Mr. Baird. OK. Agriculture is extremely important, as I |
|
expressed. It's extremely important to my district, and so we |
|
have Purdue University in the area, and Dr. Dukes has also |
|
provided some assessment of what the climate change has on |
|
agriculture, but it can impact growing season, plant growth, |
|
animals, and some of the things that's already been discussed. |
|
So what do you think we ought to be doing right now to correct |
|
these areas? What are some of the things you think you might be |
|
able to do relatively rapidly? |
|
Dr. Majkut. On farming specifically? |
|
Mrs. Fletcher. The gentleman's time has expired. |
|
Mr. Baird. All these procedures, I tell you. Thank you very |
|
much. |
|
Mrs. Fletcher. I now recognize Mr. Bera--Dr. Bera. |
|
Mr. Bera. Thank you, Chairwoman Fletcher. You look good in |
|
that chair, by the way. |
|
First off, it is glad that we're kicking off this Congress |
|
and this Committee with a hearing on climate science, on |
|
climate change and really taking a look at what we can do to |
|
try to mitigate this. And you will hear aspirational goals. You |
|
can call them whatever you want, if it's a Green New Deal or |
|
something, but aspirational goals are not things that we should |
|
shy away from as the United States. |
|
If we look at our own legacy and our own history going back |
|
to the--throughout our history but, recent history in the 1960s |
|
when President Kennedy challenged us to go to the moon, we had |
|
no idea how we were going to do it. It was an aspirational |
|
goal, but we put all of our intellect, industry into that, and |
|
we accomplished it. And we accomplished it faster than the |
|
President challenged us, so let's not be afraid of setting |
|
these aspirational goals. And we know from going to the moon |
|
and the whole Apollo program, it was economically sound as well |
|
because we can think about all the industries and innovation |
|
and discovery that came from that. |
|
I'm proud to be a Californian. I'm a lifelong Californian. |
|
And in our State we did pass legislation recently that moves us |
|
to the goal of 100 percent clean energy by 2045. That is an |
|
aspirational goal. But we also know we're the fifth-largest |
|
economy in the world. It hasn't stifled our economy. In fact, |
|
there's over 500,000 clean and renewable energy jobs in |
|
California, and that's growing. So, again, we don't have to be |
|
afraid of setting those goals. |
|
Dr. Kopp, I think you mentioned getting to that goal of |
|
net-zero global greenhouse gas emissions. I think that's an |
|
aspirational goal, but let's set that goal out there and then |
|
let's work toward it and use our innovation and intellect to |
|
get there. |
|
I've got from a science perspective and a question--and |
|
I'll let all the witnesses comment on this--there's also the |
|
issue of the carbon that is already sequestered in our |
|
atmosphere. And from the scientific perspective, what are the |
|
things we're not talking about mitigating future emissions, but |
|
are there ideas out there for us to degrade the carbon that |
|
already is up there that is trapped? |
|
Dr. Kopp. I don't know if Dr. Mahowald wants to take first |
|
crack at that. |
|
Mr. Bera. Sure, whoever wants--go ahead. |
|
Dr. Mahowald. I'm happy to speak if I'm able. |
|
Mr. Bera. Yes, please. |
|
Dr. Mahowald. The removal of carbon dioxide from the |
|
atmosphere is--innovative new technologies are moving in this |
|
direction, and we do need more investment in this type of |
|
research development and deployment of these technologies. |
|
There are some sectors that are going to be very difficult to |
|
cut the CO<INF>2</INF> emissions from, and removing carbon |
|
dioxide from the atmosphere is a very good method of reducing |
|
climate risk at the same time as we are working to mitigate as |
|
well as adapt in other areas. So, for example, if you want to |
|
sequester more carbon in agricultural soil, this not only |
|
reduces the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, it also makes the |
|
agricultural soil more resilient to climate change as an |
|
example. But there's two recent National Academies reports on |
|
how to look at carbon dioxide removal, and I think it's an area |
|
that the United States should invest more research and set up |
|
the business environment to allow companies to invest more in. |
|
Thank you. |
|
Mr. Bera. Great, thank you. Dr. Kopp? |
|
Dr. Kopp. Yes, just to add onto that, there's a wide range |
|
of approaches you can take from expanding forests, which is |
|
slow but we know works, to a variety of technological |
|
approaches. As I said in my opening remarks, they're sort of |
|
new and untested. I think one thing to keep in mind is that the |
|
amount of warming we have is roughly proportional to the--all |
|
the CO<INF>2</INF> we've emitted, so if we want to reverse |
|
warming by removing CO<INF>2</INF> from the atmosphere, we're |
|
going to have to talk about building infrastructure that's of a |
|
scale comparable to that that we're currently using to put |
|
CO<INF>2</INF> into the atmosphere, right? So the first use of |
|
these technologies is going to be, as Dr. Mahowald mentioned, |
|
for areas where it's hard to get the CO<INF>2</INF> out. But if |
|
we want to talk about reversing climate change, you're talking |
|
about a huge growth of this area using technologies that are |
|
still really to be developed. |
|
Mr. Bera. Right. Any last comments, please? |
|
Dr. Ebi. One last comment to go to what you said at the |
|
beginning, I'm at a very large State university, and students |
|
are so excited about the possibilities of working in this area. |
|
Students want to contribute to the solutions. They want the |
|
training so that they can be part of this transition that we're |
|
going to undergo. |
|
Mr. Bera. So it's a lot like those of us who were growing |
|
up in the 1960s during the space race. It's inspiring. And |
|
let's not be afraid of setting those aspirational goals. |
|
I'll yield back. |
|
Mrs. Fletcher. Thank you. And before we move on to our next |
|
questions, I would like to enter into the record without |
|
objection a consensus letter to Congress from 31 nonpartisan |
|
scientific societies that acknowledge and affirm human |
|
contributions to climate change and notes the severity of |
|
climate change impacts is increasing and is expected to |
|
increase substantially in the coming decades. |
|
And with that, I recognize Mr. Waltz for 5 minutes. |
|
Mr. Waltz. Thank you, Madam Chairman. |
|
So my district's in northeast Florida. I grew up on Florida |
|
beaches. The seas are rising. Anyone who's grown up there knows |
|
that the beach is smaller than when I was a child. I just don't |
|
see how that's disputable. But I do want America to lead this |
|
effort. We've led the world in coal, oil, and gas development. |
|
Now we need to do it with rapidly growing clean-energy markets. |
|
I think to succeed we need a very broad portfolio of--emphasis |
|
here--low-cost technologies to speed the transition to |
|
renewable cleaner energy. I think that includes nuclear |
|
undeniably. |
|
I would caution my colleagues, we have seen a lot of |
|
aspirational goals lately. I think we need to be very careful |
|
about crossing the line from aspirational to outlandish goals |
|
that could harm our economy and frankly give the edge to our |
|
global competitors in doing so and frankly take us backward in |
|
this effort. |
|
So I'm very concerned as a veteran as well about the |
|
national security implications of global warming. I have first- |
|
hand seen and unfortunately could not count the amount of |
|
soldiers that have died carrying diesel fuel back and forth to |
|
outposts that we could have sustained through clean |
|
technologies. I've seen--not to mention our global supply |
|
chains and not to mention I've spent a lot of time in Africa, |
|
Lake Chad basin where we're dealing with the destabilizing |
|
effects in Nigeria, Niger, what have you. |
|
So my question for each of the panelists is what R&D--I |
|
mean, Dr.--did I say this right--Majkut? |
|
Dr. Majkut. Majkut. |
|
Mr. Waltz. Majkut, excuse me. You said we're doing pretty |
|
well in our investments, particularly relative to the rest of |
|
the world, and my question for each of you is, where are we |
|
not--across the menu of clean-energy technologies, where do we |
|
need to do more? And again, keeping this in the context of our |
|
broader economic base that I think we need to sustain all of |
|
these efforts. So where could we do more? Geothermal--and I'd |
|
ask you to choose. The answer can't be yes, all of the above. |
|
Dr. Majkut. Let me say first we could be doing more, right? |
|
Like the scale of the challenge and a lot of the concerns that |
|
your colleagues point out about increasing costs with present- |
|
day technologies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, those are |
|
real and valid concerns. And in particular, you can't expect |
|
these things to scale unless the prices at which they're |
|
trading are competitive. So on the whole, doing more is not |
|
necessarily a bad thing, and then doing more smartly is |
|
probably the thing that the Committee should really pay |
|
attention to. |
|
When I read these IPCC reports or the National Climate |
|
Assessment or these other documents, the places where it seems |
|
like the technology hasn't caught up with the need, carbon |
|
capture and storage is one, right? This allows us to use fossil |
|
fuels without--for power generation and take advantage of all |
|
of their desirable characteristics without emitting---- |
|
Mr. Waltz. To make it more cost-effective or just to do it? |
|
Dr. Majkut. In large part simply to do it. There are very |
|
few facilities---- |
|
Mr. Waltz. OK. |
|
Dr. Majkut [continuing]. At which this is happening. |
|
Mr. Waltz. But just in the interest of time, my |
|
understanding is the majority of our dams in the United States |
|
do not generate electricity. Nuclear accounts for about 1/5 of |
|
the United States' electrical generation right now. And then of |
|
course, we're seeing just a boom in natural gas and where we |
|
can go with it. Would you agree that those are all areas where |
|
we can make greater investments that would make a difference on |
|
this issue? |
|
Dr. Majkut. Yes. |
|
Mr. Waltz. Would any of the other panelists want to weigh |
|
in on either of those questions? |
|
Dr. Francis. Thank you. So I'm from Massachusetts, and in |
|
Massachusetts we've had incentives for solar energy for about a |
|
decade now, and many roofs have solar panels on them. To put a |
|
solar array on your roof now, the payback period is about 6 |
|
years before you start basically making money on your |
|
investment. It saddens me to fly over your State frankly |
|
because I look down and I see almost no roofs with solar panels |
|
on them, and you're just missing a huge opportunity. And yes, |
|
it took some incentives to get the ball rolling down the hill, |
|
but now, the incentives in Massachusetts are disappearing and |
|
still people are putting solar on their roofs. |
|
Mr. Waltz. I would point out to that in Samsula, Florida, |
|
Florida Power & Light has a 1,200 solar facility, and it's |
|
estimated to provide electricity to 14,000 homes, 30 million |
|
solar panels by 2030, but I'm sure we could all collectively do |
|
more. Those are State incentives to be clear---- |
|
Dr. Francis. That's--yes. |
|
Mr. Waltz [continuing]. At the State level or local level. |
|
Dr. Francis. Yes. |
|
Mr. Waltz. Thank you so much. I yield my time. |
|
Mrs. Fletcher. Thank you. I now recognize Ms. Bonamici for |
|
5 minutes. |
|
Ms. Bonamici. Thank you very much, Madam Chairwoman. |
|
I want to thank Chairwoman Johnson and Ranking Member Lucas |
|
for holding this hearing, and I also wanted to take just a |
|
moment to say congratulations to the environmental--Environment |
|
Subcommittee Chair Representative Fletcher and wish her a very |
|
happy birthday. Thank you. |
|
Mrs. Fletcher. Thank you. |
|
Ms. Bonamici. So thank you to the witnesses for being here |
|
today. The science is clear. I've been on this Committee the |
|
entire time I've been in Congress. We've had this conversation |
|
many times. This--consequences of inaction on climate change |
|
will be serious and swift. The findings of the recent report |
|
from the International Panel on Climate Change, the IPCC, and |
|
the Fourth National Climate Assessment are not just a wake-up |
|
call; they are an alarm. At the time when the world is facing |
|
record heat waves, droughts, more acidic oceans, rising sea |
|
levels, and a surge of--in extreme weather patterns, we must |
|
fight for comprehensive policies to protect the health of our |
|
oceans and our planet. |
|
I was concerned when the Trump Administration appeared to |
|
be burying the Fourth National Climate Assessment. They |
|
released it late on a--like late on a holiday weekend, so I |
|
shared findings from the assessment on Twitter every day for 6 |
|
weeks to call attention to the assessment when the President |
|
dismissed the findings in a Washington Post interview last |
|
year. I worked with my colleague on this Committee, Mr. Beyer. |
|
We led 96 of our colleagues in urging the President to heed the |
|
dire warning of the assessment and work with us to protect the |
|
health of our planet. |
|
The assessment is the most comprehensive science-based |
|
evaluation of the consequences of climate change, the risks of |
|
inaction and potential adaptation strategies for the United |
|
States to date. We cannot and should not dismiss its findings. |
|
Dr. Ebi, according to the air quality chapter, volume 2, of |
|
the assessment, more than 100 million people in the United |
|
States live in communities where air pollution exceeds health- |
|
based air quality standards. Climate change will increase the |
|
risk of unhealthy air quality. How are children, older adults, |
|
low-income individuals, communities of color, and those |
|
experiencing discrimination disproportionately affected by |
|
climate change, and what could we do to mitigate the health |
|
consequences of climate change for these vulnerable |
|
populations? |
|
Dr. Ebi. Thank you for the question. And this is a very |
|
serious concern that there are people who are differentially |
|
exposed to poor air quality. It's from particulate matter, it's |
|
from ozone, and it's also from things like pollen. And so |
|
people in the groups that you mentioned often live in |
|
communities that have much higher exposure, and it's an |
|
opportunity, going back to the question we had a few minutes |
|
ago, of looking at issues like energy efficiency to make sure |
|
that we reduce how much comes out of our tailpipes so that |
|
people don't have so much exposure. |
|
I will note that the United States cannot sell cars in |
|
China because we cannot meet their emissions standards. So |
|
there's lots of opportunities to reduce emissions. Reduced |
|
emissions also from coal-fired power plants is incredibly |
|
important to protect people's health. |
|
Ms. Bonamici. Thank you. We also save healthcare costs, and |
|
we want to do that obviously. |
|
Dr. Kopp, I noticed in your written testimony there's a |
|
sentence that you have in there about in 1990 President George |
|
H.W. Bush signed the Global Warming Response Act of 1990. I |
|
just want to note that that was a long time ago, and we still |
|
need to respond. |
|
The coastal effects chapter of volume 2 of the Fourth |
|
National Climate Assessment states that 13.1 million people are |
|
potentially at risk of needing to migrate because of sea-level |
|
rise by the year 2100, creating drastic consequences for |
|
socially and economically marginalized and low-income groups. |
|
In your testimony, you discuss how climate change is an |
|
infrastructure challenge. We're having a lot of infrastructure |
|
conversations here on the Hill. What infrastructure investments |
|
and strategies should Congress address now to prepare for |
|
rising sea levels and avoid catastrophic damage? |
|
Dr. Kopp. Well, of course, that's a complicated question |
|
because infrastructure is fundamentally local, and so the |
|
answer is going to differ depending on where you are. The |
|
fundamental thing is if you're building infrastructure that's |
|
going to be around for 80 years like--it is foolish not to take |
|
into account changing climate conditions and changing sea-level |
|
rise for that period and know when you build that what you're |
|
going to do if it turns out we're on a relatively, say, low |
|
sea-level rise course and what we're going to do if it turns |
|
out we're on a relatively high sea-level rise course. We |
|
aren't--we don't know yet because it depends both on ice sheet |
|
physics that are still being studied and on greenhouse gas |
|
emissions that we haven't admitted yet whether we're going to |
|
see 2 feet of sea-level rise over the course of this century or |
|
more than 6 feet. And those have very different implications, |
|
and so we need to be thinking about we can build flexibility |
|
into our designs and coupling the infrastructure designs and |
|
deployment to the science that will tell us that information as |
|
soon as it can. |
|
Ms. Bonamici. Thank you very much, Madam Chairwoman, and I |
|
am just about out of time, so I yield back. |
|
Mrs. Fletcher. Thank you. I'll now recognize Mr. Norman for |
|
5 minutes. |
|
Mr. Norman. I want to thank the panel for taking the time. |
|
Mr. Majkut, I think what's been said here--and I'll ask all |
|
the panel--this country's--and I'm from South Carolina. I'm a |
|
real estate developer. Is the figure right? We contribute 20 |
|
percent to emissions as opposed to other countries? |
|
Dr. Majkut. If I'm correct, it's slightly less than like, |
|
maybe 15, 16, but ballpark it's right. |
|
Mr. Norman. OK. And I've heard the other comments that |
|
everybody needs to pay. How do we--if we're 16 percent--pick |
|
your figure--how will we make the other 82 percent pay their |
|
fair share? |
|
Dr. Majkut. So like, first of all, we can generate a lot of |
|
innovative technologies here in the United States using our |
|
research enterprises that are exportable. We can share that |
|
knowledge through formal arrangements or informal ones or |
|
simply through exports. We can also demonstrate using a variety |
|
of policy instruments that it is possible to have a thriving |
|
economy and a healthy society with lower greenhouse gas |
|
emissions, and we can export those models as well. |
|
Mr. Norman. OK. Anybody--any of the other panelists have |
|
any comments on that? |
|
Dr. Mahowald. I'd be happy to comment. |
|
Mr. Norman. Yes, ma'am. |
|
Dr. Mahowald. The other thing to recognize with this very |
|
good question is that under the Paris Agreement, countries have |
|
voluntarily agreed to cut emissions, and people have evaluated |
|
the cost of these and the relative cost to gross domestic |
|
product (GDP). And actually the United States' voluntary |
|
contribution is actually quite low compared to its GDP. So |
|
other countries are volunteering to do more than their fair |
|
share. Thank you. |
|
Mr. Norman. If that's the case, then it's really apparent |
|
now we need to put a price tag on--prioritize or put a price |
|
tag, is that right, on what this is going to cost like the |
|
green energy deal that--we're probably going to vote on. It's a |
|
nonbinding resolution. But before we go doing away with |
|
flatulent cows, airplanes, we need to put a price on it, don't |
|
we? |
|
Dr. Majkut. Yes, from a public policy perspective we should |
|
always be cognizant of the costs and benefits of the choices |
|
we're making and try to be judicious in moving forward, seeking |
|
low-cost options. |
|
Mr. Norman. Yes. And in my world, you find your goal, put a |
|
price tag on it, and then move from there. And I think everyone |
|
would agree this is going to cost dollars. It's going to cost |
|
and I think Mr. Kopp--Dr. Kopp, you wouldn't put a figure on |
|
how much we're going to have to pay for gas, but it's going to |
|
be more expensive than what we've been paying, is that right? |
|
Dr. Kopp. Yes, so I think certainly the upfront cost of |
|
energy will go up, but average costs may go down. And I think |
|
it's really important that when we look at the costs, we're |
|
looking at the costs of climate change in comparison; there's a |
|
lot of economic work going on to try to evaluate those two, and |
|
these have to be balanced against one another. |
|
Mr. Norman. They have to be balanced. And would it not be |
|
fair with increased costs, whatever figure we end up with, |
|
you're going to rule out some of our most vulnerable |
|
communities that are not going to have access to energy, as an |
|
example. What kind of cost would that be to them and their |
|
health through PTSD, through their mental health? How would we |
|
put a number on that? |
|
Dr. Majkut. Well, I mean, I think the intent is not to like |
|
overly punish any particular class of people or any particular |
|
technology. It's to put in place a system that we all are going |
|
to benefit from in the long-term. And that means that for day- |
|
to-day activities that people are going about, that they're |
|
able to do that in a low-carbon way. Great. What we need to do |
|
as a society is find ways that that doesn't end up being too |
|
costly. And frankly, I don't know that it is going to be too |
|
costly. It's just a matter of making smart investments, leading |
|
the way to innovation, and then scaling those up through the |
|
private sector. |
|
Mr. Norman. Dr. Majkut, if, as an example, this Green New |
|
Deal were implemented immediately, wouldn't you agree it's |
|
going to devastate our economy, and other countries are going |
|
to take up the practices that we are eliminating as in the cows |
|
that they grow, the other areas that we are going to have to-- |
|
they will make the difference up in this even though we don't? |
|
Dr. Majkut. Yes, in fact, the Green New Deal is a moving |
|
target, not sure what it is, but based on my understanding from |
|
the resolution that's been introduced, as well as the things |
|
that have been said by its primary backers, the |
|
decarbonization, that is reducing the CO<INF>2</INF> associated |
|
with economic activity, is one of the cheapest elements of the |
|
Green New Deal. |
|
Mr. Norman. Thank you so much. I'm out of time. I yield |
|
back. |
|
Mrs. Fletcher. Thank you. The Chair will now recognize Mr. |
|
McNerney for 5 minutes. |
|
Mr. McNerney. I thank the Chair and I thank the witnesses |
|
this morning. |
|
Natural gas sounds great compared to coal, but the more |
|
effectiveness of natural gas and reflecting infrared radiation |
|
compared to carbon dioxide means that if just 2 percent of the |
|
produced gas escapes into the atmosphere, the efficiency |
|
benefit over coal is lost. Does anyone on the panel disagree |
|
with that? No? Does anyone want to make a remark about that? |
|
OK. Thank you. |
|
Dr. Mahowald. If I could say something? |
|
Mr. McNerney. Sure, go ahead. |
|
Dr. Mahowald. Well, thank you for the question. One of the |
|
differences between methane and carbon dioxide is how long they |
|
reside in the atmosphere, so in the short-term methane can be |
|
very bad for the climate, as well as for air quality, but most |
|
of the impacts of methane are actually on air quality. But |
|
methane only lasts about 10 years in the atmosphere whereas |
|
carbon dioxide, 20 to 30 percent of it is going to last |
|
centuries to thousands of years. |
|
So in terms of trying to solve the really big climate |
|
problem, we should focus on CO<INF>2</INF>. Methane is a big |
|
problem for air quality, especially and a little bit for |
|
climate, but we should try to mitigate the methane as much as |
|
possible. But it is actually lucrative to capture, so it's a |
|
much easier target. |
|
Mr. McNerney. That's a good point. We need to capture it-- |
|
-- |
|
Dr. Mahowald. Studies show that it's economic--that it's |
|
actually economically feasible---- |
|
Mr. McNerney. OK. |
|
Dr. Mahowald [continuing]. To capture much more methane if |
|
people were careful about it. |
|
Mr. McNerney. Thank you. Dr. Kopp, how can positive |
|
feedback loops accelerate climate change? |
|
Dr. Kopp. Well, there--positive feedback loops are sort of |
|
a core part of how the climate system works, so to take one |
|
example, if we put more CO<INF>2</INF> into the atmosphere, |
|
that causes some amount of the warming. It causes melting of |
|
ice in the Arctic. It makes the Arctic less reflective, so that |
|
causes more warming. When we talk about, say, tipping points in |
|
the climate system, which is language I don't love but is used, |
|
there--all of those tipping points are driven by positive |
|
feedbacks having to do with things like, for instance, ice |
|
sheet ocean interactions leading to rapid loss of the Antarctic |
|
ice sheet. |
|
Mr. McNerney. OK. Dr. Ebi, briefly, would you identify some |
|
research that the Federal Government should be engaged in on |
|
climate change it's not doing right now? |
|
Dr. Ebi. Thank you for the question. There are so many |
|
opportunities to increase the research enterprise in this area. |
|
I'll speak specifically for health. There is almost no Federal |
|
research dollars going into research on the health impacts of a |
|
changing climate and how we can adapt more effectively to that, |
|
so any kind of investment would be very beneficial for the |
|
health of Americans and for our healthcare infrastructure. |
|
Mr. McNerney. Thank you. Dr. Kopp, I understand that most |
|
or all climate models underestimate or even grossly |
|
underestimate the rate of climate change. Do you agree with |
|
that? |
|
Dr. Kopp. So I think what you're referring to is the |
|
statement in the climate assessment looking at the ability of |
|
climate models to reproduce past warm periods, and there's |
|
definitely a systematic tendency of climate models if we |
|
compared them to the geological record, not to produce as much |
|
warming as we see evidenced in the geological record. |
|
Mr. McNerney. Well, given the state that we're in that the |
|
climate effects we're seeing now are due to carbon dioxide that |
|
was introduced into the atmosphere decades ago, do you think we |
|
can avoid a 1.5 +C increase by just reducing carbon emissions |
|
alone? |
|
Dr. Kopp. As I think the 1.5 +C report tells us it is |
|
possible physically but it may be challenging. If we--we have |
|
to get greenhouse gas emissions to net zero very quickly if we |
|
want to do that. |
|
Mr. McNerney. Well, I think because of that, we need to |
|
expand our research into climate intervention, and not that I |
|
want to go there, but given that 1.5-degree change is almost |
|
inevitable and 2-degree change is likely in my opinion, we need |
|
to understand the tools that would be available to avoid |
|
catastrophic change if it comes to that. Would you comment on |
|
that? |
|
Dr. Kopp. Yes, so I think it's very clear it would be very |
|
helpful to have more effective technologies for removing carbon |
|
dioxide from the atmosphere, so that's one category of climate |
|
intervention. There's another category that has to do with |
|
putting--sorry, pollution in the stratosphere to make the |
|
planet more reflective, and I think that needs a lot of careful |
|
analysis to see what the risks are and whether that would be |
|
feasible from both a technological and policy perspective. |
|
Mr. McNerney. Right. So we need to do research in order to |
|
understand what the risks and what the potential benefits of |
|
that would be? |
|
Dr. Kopp. Yes. |
|
Mr. McNerney. Thank you. I yield back. |
|
Mrs. Fletcher. Thank you. The Chair will now recognize Mr. |
|
Gonzalez for 5 minutes. |
|
Mr. Gonzalez. Thank you, Madam Chair. Thank you to |
|
everybody for being here. |
|
As a newly elected Member of Congress, I just want to |
|
mention first how excited I am to serve with everyone on this |
|
Committee and look forward to working on bipartisan solutions |
|
that will make the American people proud. |
|
So I believe that climate change is real, and global |
|
industrial development is a contributing factor. I also believe |
|
that my first responsibility and my unyielding loyalty is to |
|
the hardworking men and women of Ohio's 16th District and the |
|
economy that allows us to heat our homes, fuel our vehicles, |
|
and build our businesses. As I look at the most recent |
|
proposal, the Green New Deal, I cannot help but believe that |
|
this would put a tremendous burden on my community. |
|
My community is proud of our blue-collar roots. We are |
|
proud of the products we make, the crops we farm, and the jobs |
|
that we hold. Simply put, the Green New Deal would threaten all |
|
of that. |
|
And we only really need to look to Germany and their what |
|
I'll call ``Green New Deal Lite,'' for an example. Since 2000, |
|
Germany has spent an estimated =189 billion or about $220 |
|
billion in renewable energy projects while emissions have been |
|
stuck at roughly 2009 levels and even rose recently. According |
|
to the Wall Street Journal, taxes and rising power generation |
|
costs have made Germany's electric rates the highest in Europe. |
|
In sum, they've spent a lot of money, raised taxes and energy |
|
prices, and nothing really happened. |
|
The proponents of the Green New Deal are proud to admit |
|
that their plan represents a fundamental remaking of America's |
|
economy. They believe in a system that relies on a near full |
|
government takeover of some of our most important industries to |
|
solve our most pressing problems. With Germany's example and |
|
common sense as our guide, we simply know that this will not |
|
work. |
|
But it's not enough to point fingers. As I said, this is |
|
real. We do have a problem, and the government can play a role |
|
in helping solve it. What I believe is the most reasonable path |
|
forward is a path that does not focus on a Federal takeover of |
|
our economy but rather a path that fosters a diverse set of |
|
energy sources and seeks to make alternative energy as |
|
affordable and reliable as the traditional sources we use |
|
today. And for that I do not wish to rely on government |
|
takeovers of our biggest industries but rather I want to focus |
|
on empowering the American people and unleashing the most |
|
powerful economic force in human history. If we do this, then |
|
we will be able to reduce carbon emissions at home but also |
|
abroad as we are able to commercialize these to-be-developed |
|
technologies and sell them around the world. And best of all, |
|
we will do that without having to ask my communities to pay a |
|
very steep price. |
|
With that, Dr. Majkut, could you comment briefly on the |
|
extent to which this is a global issue versus one we can solve |
|
on our own? And based on your understanding of global |
|
development patterns specifically in China, India, and Africa, |
|
how feasible and realistic is it to exclude fossil fuels from |
|
all sources of energy globally? |
|
Dr. Majkut. Thank you for the question. I think you've |
|
really hit the nail on the head, right? The science tells you |
|
this is a global issue. Atmosphere doesn't care where carbon |
|
dioxide molecules come from. They have the same warming affect |
|
no matter where their source was combusted if it's a fossil |
|
fuel source. |
|
What the United States can do is work to innovate the |
|
technologies we believe we'll need to have not just an economy |
|
similar to today's but one that is much larger globally and |
|
finding smart ways to make sure those technologies make it to |
|
market. And that's an advanced research agenda, that's |
|
industrial policies, and it's market and finance design |
|
questions. |
|
Mr. Gonzalez. OK. And then cost is obviously very |
|
important, and I think we focus a lot on that, which is right. |
|
But when I speak to our manufacturers, one of the issues that |
|
they talk about a lot is reliability of the grid. So if we were |
|
to switch to these technologies, the renewable technologies |
|
today exclusively, we turned the Green New Deal on today, would |
|
we even be able to manufacture? Would our manufacturers be able |
|
to rely on the grid as it's currently constructed? |
|
Dr. Majkut. I don't think so, no. It seems like the lights |
|
would go off. But that doesn't mean that you couldn't change |
|
over the course of a few decades, which is what we're trying to |
|
do. |
|
Mr. Gonzalez. Right. And then my last question and I hate |
|
these up or down ones, so I apologize, but when you think about |
|
the Green New Deal as you've seen it--and I know the details |
|
need to be fleshed out--do you believe that is a realistic path |
|
forward? |
|
Dr. Majkut. No, sir. I think---- |
|
Mr. Gonzalez. Thank you. |
|
Dr. Majkut [continuing]. It's a broad progressive agenda |
|
greenwashed by some climate details. |
|
Mr. Gonzalez. Thank you. And I yield back the balance of my |
|
time. |
|
Mrs. Fletcher. Thank you. The Chair will now recognize Mr. |
|
Cohen for 5 minutes. |
|
Mr. Cohen. Thank you, Madam Chair. First, I believe the New |
|
Green Deal is aspirational, and I think it's important that it |
|
puts attention on the dangers to our planet at this time and |
|
the urgency of our actions. Some of the specifics certainly |
|
aren't going to happen any time soon. Some of them will |
|
probably never happen at all. But the concept of putting |
|
people's minds and attentions to climate change is very |
|
important. Does anybody disagree that it's not an important |
|
matter to inform the public of the urgency of the changes that |
|
will occur to our planet? Thank you. |
|
That's why I'm a sponsor of the bill because it brings |
|
attention to the issue. It's getting warmer and warmer, hotter |
|
and hotter, more violent weather, hurricanes because of the |
|
warming oceans and currents, and rising levels--the sea level, |
|
endangering what we've known. I've read that Miami Beach could |
|
very easily be underwater and it oftentimes has water on |
|
Collins Avenue that they have to pump. I think where we ought |
|
to concentrate on is Mar-a-Lago and what are the climate |
|
consequences to Mar-a-Lago if we don't act? Can anybody give me |
|
an idea about how long it might be before the oceans rise to a |
|
level to where Mar-a-Lago might be underwater? |
|
Dr. Kopp. So I don't recall exactly how high Mar-a-Lago is. |
|
Mr. Cohen. It depends on the night and who's sponsoring the |
|
party I understand. |
|
Dr. Kopp. But we could be looking at sea-level rise |
|
anywhere between 2 and 6 feet, and I think under--in this |
|
century, depending partially, as I said, on ice sheet physics |
|
and partially on how much CO<INF>2</INF> we put into the |
|
atmosphere. And my suspicion--because I have actually looked at |
|
this before; I just don't recall the details--is that certainly |
|
under those higher scenarios you might be looking at permanent |
|
flooding to some of that property. \1\ |
|
--------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
\1\ Based on Climate Central's Surging Seas Risk Zone Map |
|
(sealevel.climatecentral.org), much of the golf course at Mar-a-Lago |
|
floods at a water level about 3 feet above the current high-tide line, |
|
and the swimming pool floods at a water level of about 5 feet above the |
|
current high-tide line. Currently, the water level reaches about 1 foot |
|
above the high-tide line about once a year. Thus, the Mar-a-Lago golf |
|
course would be expected to flood annually with about 2 feet of sea- |
|
level rise, a level that will most likely be exceeded in south Florida |
|
in the 2060s or 2070s under a high-emissions scenario and around the |
|
end of the century in a low-emissions scenario. The swimming pool would |
|
be expected to flood annually with about 4 feet of sea-level rise. |
|
Under a high-emissions scenario, we would estimate that the 4-foot |
|
threshold has between a 15 and 83 percent chance of being exceeded by |
|
the end of the century, depending on the approach used to estimate how |
|
fast Antarctica will melt. |
|
--------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
Mr. Cohen. What if the--if this happened, your 2 to 6 |
|
feet--and I know it's decades and whatever, but they're going |
|
to be---- |
|
Dr. Kopp. Oh, yes. |
|
Mr. Cohen [continuing]. Generations of people to be Mar-a- |
|
Lagites. Do they--what if they built a big seawall, a big |
|
beautiful seawall at Mar-a-Lago? Would that do any good against |
|
the ocean? |
|
Dr. Kopp. So the challenge in south Florida is that a lot |
|
of it is limestone that has--is porous, and so that means that |
|
the ocean water isn't just coming from the side, it's coming |
|
from underneath. So it's sort of hard to protect south Florida |
|
only with seawalls. |
|
Mr. Cohen. That's kind of like El Chapo. He came from |
|
underneath, he came from over, so the walls wouldn't do any |
|
good there either. |
|
People have talked--the gentleman from South Carolina |
|
talked about the cost of all this and there are costs to doing |
|
things with industry, but there are tremendous costs if we |
|
don't do anything. The air-conditioning bill at Mar-a-Lago |
|
would have to go up as it gets hotter and hotter and hotter. |
|
Has anybody done a study on the dollar cost, the fiscal cost to |
|
business if we don't take action? |
|
Dr. Kopp. So we're part of a collaboration called the |
|
Climate Impact Lab together with the University of Chicago, |
|
Berkeley, and Rhodium Group, and those are exactly the sort of |
|
questions we are working on. We're still working toward some of |
|
that, but the approach we use is sort of to look at things |
|
like, for instance, how different years in the past have led to |
|
different air-conditioning expenditures, take the energy sector |
|
as an example, and how that varies based on how hot it is |
|
usually and how wealthy people are and use that to project |
|
forward. So this is a really cutting-edge area in climate |
|
research we're sort of working toward using big data approaches |
|
to do--answer those sorts of questions. |
|
Mr. Cohen. So a lot of the issues that will arise like the |
|
use of more air conditioning really militates against poor |
|
people because they won't have air conditioning at all often or |
|
can't afford the utilities, and so they bear the brunt of |
|
climate change in a larger, greater way than wealthy people in |
|
a climate change burden. |
|
Dr. Kopp. Yes, and so generally what you find is that the |
|
poor suffer and the rich can spend to adapt, so they both bear |
|
costs, but in some cases it's more personal costs, suffering, |
|
and the other is more monetary. |
|
Mr. Cohen. And somebody mentioned--which I pretty much |
|
understand, if we correct certain issues here and improve our-- |
|
reduce our reduction--production of CO<INF>2</INF>, that you-- |
|
if it doesn't happen in the rest of the world, we've still got |
|
problems, but isn't the best way to do that the Paris climate |
|
accords or some climate accords? Does anybody disagree with the |
|
fact that we ought to a climate treaty where we come together |
|
and have an accord? We're all in agreement on that? Kumbaya. |
|
Thank you, and I yield back. |
|
Mrs. Fletcher. Thank you. The Chair will now recognize Mr. |
|
Cloud for 5 minutes. |
|
Mr. Cloud. Thank you, Madam Chair. And may I again wish you |
|
happy birthday. Thank you all for being here. Mr. Majkut, at |
|
the beginning of your written testimony, you say that ``There's |
|
no better innovative force than the private sector, but if you |
|
really want energy innovation, you need to show innovators that |
|
there's a market waiting for them.'' Can you speak to what |
|
recommendations you would encourage for energy innovation in |
|
the market? |
|
Dr. Majkut. Sure. I think a lot of things are already in |
|
place showing energy innovators that there is market access for |
|
them. The Paris climate agreement is a great example, right? A |
|
lot of countries are saying they want to reduce greenhouse gas |
|
emissions, and that incentivizes people to innovate ways of |
|
doing it. |
|
Speaking of more at a U.S. national level, I think there's |
|
a lot of things that could be done on the fiscal side, whether |
|
that's a carbon price or smarter regulations than we have today |
|
to create a competitive marketplace. There are intermediate |
|
steps that can be taken when things aren't quite ready to scale |
|
into the market. A good example of that would be the 45Q tax |
|
credits that are presently offered for producers--or people who |
|
capture carbon and sequester it or use it in some manner at new |
|
facilities. That gets you your first few. And then on the |
|
backend there is the scientific and engineering enterprise, |
|
which reduces the cost of doing all of this. |
|
Mr. Cloud. Thank you. I hail from Texas, specifically the |
|
27th District of Texas. It's Gulf Coast. My district includes |
|
nuclear power. We had the number-one energy-exporting port in |
|
the Nation. We have wind energy. We have LNG, crude exports, |
|
very diverse as far as an energy portfolio is concerned. Texas |
|
is a leader in that, also a leader in wind energy and just |
|
having generally speaking a diverse portfolio. The Green New |
|
Deal, however, seeks to limit that to specifically noncarbon- |
|
produced energy in the next 10 years. Is that feasible without |
|
crippling innovation and economy, or do you think that with new |
|
technologies, fossil fuels could play a part going forward? |
|
Dr. Majkut. Two things. One, I'm not a big fan of |
|
timetables generally. I think we know enough that we should be |
|
trying to bring low-carbon technology to market. Setting super |
|
ambitious goals--I understand the impulse. I totally agree, but |
|
I think you can get in your own way. And where we find |
|
ourselves today, that's a very ambitious goal for where we've |
|
been. |
|
I think the climate doesn't particularly care where energy |
|
comes from so long as it's not emitting CO<INF>2</INF>, and |
|
that means that there are a lot of reasons why you'd want to |
|
pursue a diverse innovation portfolio. |
|
Mr. Cloud. You say that climate doesn't necessarily care |
|
where emissions come from. In a sense, too, the market doesn't |
|
care where the energy source comes from, and the appetite |
|
globally for energy is growing. And it seems like one can make |
|
the case in a sense that we've now become the leading exporter |
|
of energy to the world, which is in essence creating stability |
|
in the world. People are able to buy energy from us instead of |
|
countries that hate us. U.S. companies generally also are more |
|
likely to care about being good stewards of creation so to |
|
speak than other energy-producing nations. Could the case be |
|
made that this continued progress in this sort of realm would |
|
actually have more of a beneficial environmental effect going |
|
down the line? |
|
Dr. Majkut. Yes, if I interpret you correctly, I think so. |
|
Generally, U.S. practices are at the higher end on lots of |
|
environmental compliance issues. It also means freely available |
|
low-carbon energy is the thing that's going to power the 21st |
|
century and make everybody better off. |
|
Mr. Cloud. And could you also speak to how important a |
|
thriving economy is to creating innovative solutions? |
|
Dr. Majkut. It's totally essential. What we seek in the |
|
Niskanen Center, what I think is best for this issue is an |
|
economy that's flexible to new information, that provides |
|
routes for people to finance new projects and find profits |
|
where they can make them and then generally we want those--as |
|
long as those are low-carbon options, everybody is better off. |
|
That's exactly what we're looking to achieve. |
|
Mr. Cloud. Thank you. I yield my 4 seconds back. |
|
Mrs. Fletcher. Thank you. The Chair will now recognize Mr. |
|
Casten for 5 minutes. |
|
Mr. Casten. Thank you. Look, there is--there is no greater |
|
threat to our economic well-being, our national security, and |
|
even our survival as a species than climate change, and I want |
|
to thank Chair Bernice Johnson for taking it seriously, making |
|
it a priority of this Committee meeting, and I want to thank |
|
all of our guests today for your implicit acknowledgment that |
|
while we have the authority in this room to debate and |
|
ultimately change the laws of the United States, we have no |
|
such authority when it comes to the laws of thermodynamics, so |
|
thank you. |
|
I'd like to address my first question to Dr. Francis. We--I |
|
represent the 6th District of Illinois. We recently experienced |
|
a rather extreme cold snap. And as I think you know and we |
|
appreciate, these extreme low temperatures have in fact been |
|
attributed counterintuitively to warming in the Arctic that |
|
disrupts the jet stream. And yet we have a President who seems |
|
to think that a cold snap in one location disproves global |
|
warming. Could you please educate us on how global warming in |
|
aggregate can lead to periodic polar vortex events in the |
|
United States? |
|
Dr. Francis. Yes, thank you very much. It's not a simple |
|
story, and it's an emerging science research question, although |
|
the science has been progressing very rapidly in this |
|
particular connection between what's happening in the far north |
|
with weather patterns more generally and particularly with |
|
these extreme cold events in the winter. And what we're |
|
learning is that there's a region in the Arctic just north of |
|
western Russia where sea ice has been disappearing probably |
|
faster than anywhere else. And that particular location is |
|
special in the sense that when we lose ice in that area, it |
|
absorbs a lot of extra heat from the sun, which then gets |
|
returned to the atmosphere, and tends to create a pattern in |
|
the jet stream that can then influence the true polar vortex, |
|
which is much higher up in the atmosphere. |
|
When these conditions all align, it can topple if you will |
|
the polar vortex, which is a spinning river of air around this |
|
pool of cold air that sits over the Arctic in the wintertime. |
|
And when it's a powerful enough punch to that polar vortex, it |
|
can cause it to deform or even split into different |
|
circulations, and that's exactly what happened this past winter |
|
that brought you a new record cold temperature for Illinois. |
|
One of these pools of cold air from the Arctic drifted down |
|
over North America and reinforced the cold air that's already |
|
there during the wintertime. So this connection back to sea ice |
|
loss is the climate-change connection because that sea ice is |
|
disappearing because of global warming. |
|
Mr. Casten. Thank you. While Illinois has seen an increase |
|
in extremely cold weather, we're also seeing an increase in |
|
extreme heat events. We saw it back in 1995 with the great heat |
|
wave in Chicago. A lot of the focus has been on urban impacts. |
|
There was a recent 2017 study in Environmental Health that |
|
analyzed heat waves in Illinois and found that there were |
|
actually significantly higher increases in hospitalizations per |
|
capita in rural areas. |
|
And with the consent of the Chair, I'd like to ask |
|
unanimous consent to enter this study into the record. |
|
Mrs. Fletcher. Without objection. |
|
Mr. Casten. Thank you. The--my next question is for Dr. |
|
Mahowald. The cost of climate--of inaction on climate change is |
|
high, but over the last two decades we've seen cost of |
|
renewable technologies fall, lots more opportunities for energy |
|
efficiency, and at least some initial decoupling of economic |
|
growth from CO<INF>2</INF> emissions. This is frankly not that |
|
surprising to me. I don't think--nor to the business community |
|
because I think we all recognize that when we buy less fossil |
|
fuel, we actually save money and we have a little bit more |
|
money in our pocket, notwithstanding some earlier conversations |
|
about air-conditioner economics. If you invest a little bit |
|
more capital today to save a lot of money later, that's a good |
|
thing. |
|
Dr. Mahowald, you had mentioned in your testimony that |
|
limiting warming can in fact go hand-in-hand with increasing |
|
economic prosperity, which I hope means that you agree with the |
|
points that I just made. I would welcome your thoughts on some |
|
of the policy changes you would encourage us to take up that |
|
would both lower CO<INF>2</INF> emissions and incentivize more |
|
investment in the United States and economic growth. |
|
Dr. Mahowald. Well, thank you for the question. I want to |
|
be honest here. I'm actually a physical science expert, but I |
|
will talk a little bit about what the special report 1.5 has to |
|
say on the issue. The important thing that we looked at in this |
|
report is where one can cut emissions in the most economic way |
|
that also has benefits locally, for example, on air quality or |
|
ways that you can change people's behavior that makes them |
|
healthier, as well as address this climate change. For example, |
|
if Americans and Europeans actually ate the amount of meat and |
|
dairy that their doctors recommended they do, they would be |
|
healthier. In addition, this would cut emissions of greenhouse |
|
gases. So there are a lot of ways that you would save money |
|
because you're healthier, humans would be better off, Americans |
|
and Europeans would be better off and always, less hospital |
|
visits, feel healthier, and at the same time we're trying to |
|
address climate change. So there's quite a bit in the report |
|
where there's benefits from climate mitigation that we can feel |
|
right now. |
|
In addition, the--just the switch in some policies would |
|
make it easier for businesses in these innovative new sectors |
|
to have a stable business environment. And what's happening in |
|
the United States now is the fragmentation a little bit. Some |
|
States are more aggressive than others. And so at the Federal |
|
level it would help trade within the United States if there was |
|
a little more leveling of the terrain. |
|
But overall, there are a multitude of policies and |
|
techniques and technologies that are proposed in this special |
|
report 1.5 that each individual State and local government, as |
|
well as the Federal Government, should evaluate that can make |
|
it so that it's economically beneficial to address climate |
|
change. Thank you. |
|
Mr. Casten. Thank you. And I yield back my negative 1 |
|
minute, 30 seconds of time. |
|
Mrs. Fletcher. Thank you. The Chair will now recognize Mr. |
|
McAdams for 5 minutes. Oh, I'm sorry. |
|
Mr. McAdams. Thank you. |
|
Mrs. Fletcher. I'm sorry, Mr. McAdams. |
|
Mr. McAdams. Yes. |
|
Mrs. Fletcher. I didn't see you, Mr. Marshall. |
|
Mr. McAdams. OK. |
|
Mrs. Fletcher. I didn't see that you were sitting--hadn't |
|
gone. I'm sorry. The Chair will now recognize Mr. Marshall for |
|
5 minutes and then Mr. McAdams. |
|
Mr. Marshall. OK. Thank you, Madam Chairwoman. Let me make |
|
my first official words as Ranking Member to wish you a happy |
|
birthday as well. And I'm looking beside me here--I was going |
|
to ask all the Members to join me in singing happy birthday so |
|
the people in the audience are going to have to help me here, |
|
Lizzie, OK? Happy birthday to you, happy birthday to you, happy |
|
birthday, dear Lizzie, happy birthday to you. |
|
Mrs. Fletcher. Thank you very much. |
|
Mr. Marshall. You're welcome. |
|
Mrs. Fletcher. Your 5 minutes can begin now. |
|
Mr. Marshall. OK. All right. Well, I want to just take a |
|
second and focus on innovation. I'm a physician. I think |
|
innovation has done more to improve healthcare probably than |
|
anything I can think of. It has the potential to drive the cost |
|
of healthcare down more than any legislation that we can write |
|
up here. And I think of some of the great learning |
|
institutions, research institutions in Kansas, Kansas State |
|
University, Kansas University, Wichita State University. |
|
So, Dr. Majkut, let me ask you. If I'm going to go back, |
|
I'm going to be visiting with my leaders in those universities, |
|
what would you be telling them to think about for innovation, |
|
for research, and where do you see us going? Just give you some |
|
free rope here and chat a little bit. |
|
Dr. Majkut. I'm sure I would have a lot of ideas to share |
|
with them. I think we have a good grapple on the nature of this |
|
issue, and we have a good sense of what it is that we still |
|
need, right? Renewable energy is--we talked a little bit about |
|
today. It's doing well. It's market-competitive in a lot of |
|
cases, but it's intermittent, right, not just because like the |
|
sun doesn't shine at night, but sometimes, over the space of |
|
months or years, you're going to get different weather |
|
patterns, and that's going to affect things. |
|
So really what we need to think about are what are the |
|
characteristics in energy sources that we want going forward |
|
that we don't already have? So that might be easily |
|
dispatchable, very resilient, low-carbon energy sources, for |
|
example. Identify those, understand where you can find the most |
|
scale, both here in the United States and internationally, and |
|
pursue them with speed and vigor. |
|
Mr. Marshall. OK. I think about innovation across the |
|
country, fracking, some of those types of things are |
|
opportunities, carbon capture. Would you suggest us developing |
|
innovation here to help other countries? Do you think we should |
|
just send money to other countries to help them do things? |
|
Dr. Majkut. I think we should focus on innovation. All of |
|
our policies should be--at least as a side benefit, incentivize |
|
people to innovate new ways of doing things because what we |
|
really want is for people to do a lot more globally while |
|
emitting a lot less, and that's an innovation challenge |
|
primarily. |
|
Mr. Marshall. OK. What's the coolest innovation thing out |
|
there that we haven't talked about today? |
|
Dr. Majkut. Oh, that's interesting. Energy storage, the |
|
idea that we can find lots of interesting ways either through |
|
mechanical or chemical means to store a lot of energy is a |
|
very, I think, an interesting thing. My favorite example is |
|
very large flywheels like you have in the clutch of your car. |
|
You can, when you have excess energy, spin them up and when you |
|
need to take energy out of the storage system, you generate it |
|
from this massive spinning wheel. |
|
Mr. Marshall. OK. |
|
Dr. Majkut. I don't know that that's being deployed, but |
|
it's a great idea. |
|
Mr. Marshall. OK. Thank you so much. I yield back. |
|
Mrs. Fletcher. Thank you. I'll now recognize Mr. McAdams |
|
for 5 minutes. |
|
Mr. McAdams. I was going to sing happy birthday to you. You |
|
beat me to it. |
|
Mr. Marshall. Oh. |
|
Mr. McAdams. Thank you, Madam Chair, and I'm happy to be |
|
here for this hearing and for putting climate science at the |
|
top of our Committee's priorities for this Congress. I think |
|
it's an important issue for the entire Congress and happy to |
|
see us taking it up here on the Science Committee as well. |
|
Thank you to our witnesses for your--providing your expert |
|
testimony and really enlightening this conversation. |
|
I'm excited to join this Committee and to have an |
|
opportunity to understand the latest in climate research and |
|
highlight its importance in shaping our policies that will |
|
result in clean air, better environmental health, and a clean- |
|
energy economy. |
|
As the former Mayor of Salt Lake County, a county in Utah |
|
that often sees schoolkids kept inside for recess because the |
|
air's not safe to breathe. I have four kids myself and was |
|
shocked to learn that part of their common vocabulary is ``it's |
|
an air day,'' meaning they have--they don't play outside at |
|
recess. They come home bouncing off the walls because they've |
|
been kept inside all day. |
|
I know how important it is that we address our winter |
|
inversions in Utah, our summer ozone pollution, but while |
|
climate change is certainly real and important to us as a--to |
|
our global--to us as a planet, it's also very important locally |
|
and the impacts that we feel locally vary from place to place, |
|
but we see it locally even in Utah. I know how important and |
|
imperative it is for Utah families to apply sound science to |
|
the solutions that we seek. |
|
Utah remains the youngest State in the country, and |
|
numerous studies document the risk to pregnant mothers, to |
|
their newborns, and to those with respiratory problems such as |
|
asthma when they're exposed to dirty air. We've long been aware |
|
of the harm to older adults with heart and lung ailments as |
|
well, even the likelihood of premature death. |
|
Utah is keenly aware of the economic costs of climate |
|
change as well. When the Wasatch Mountains are not visible due |
|
to smog, our ability to sell our region to--we're a region |
|
where tourism is an important part of our economy. The ability |
|
to sell our region to a new lifestyle-oriented businesses, it's |
|
greatly diminished. |
|
Utah has had its share of environmental issues as well, |
|
devastating environmental issues from last summer's |
|
catastrophic wildfires to extended drought to the shortening of |
|
a ski season, first-world problems I recognize, but it does |
|
have an impact on us when snow melt comes late and melts early. |
|
We also--in a desert area, much of our watershed is captured |
|
and stored in the form of snowfall, and then as snow melts, we |
|
have reservoirs, but as we have less snowfall and more |
|
rainfall, the ways in which over the last couple of centuries |
|
we've adapted to living in a desert, will not be adequate as |
|
climate patterns change and will be expensive for us. We can |
|
adapt fortunately. Unlike some places, we can adapt, but it |
|
will be expensive to us locally. |
|
So I think Utahns support efforts to protect our air, to |
|
protect our water, to protect our quality of life that we |
|
experience in our Rocky Mountains, and in fact our early |
|
pioneer settlers in Utah understood that in an arid landscape |
|
water is life itself, and anything that threatens the climate |
|
threatens our ability to sustain life over the long-term. |
|
As elected leaders, we have the capacity and the |
|
responsibility to have fact-based discussions about the issues |
|
of climate and environmental protection, and it is critical to |
|
our Nation's goals for environmental sustainability, for |
|
economic prosperity, and our national security. |
|
So I believe that hearings such as the one today shows that |
|
we are serious about protecting health and spurring innovation |
|
to address the challenges that we face to transition to a |
|
clean-energy economy, and I'm proud to be here and to be part |
|
of the solution. |
|
I'm looking forward to working with this Committee to |
|
advance solutions to our climate crisis and to jumpstart, as |
|
I've said, a clean-energy economy. |
|
So my questions--I guess I'm almost out of time, so my |
|
first question and it may be my only question is to Dr. Ebi. |
|
The Fourth National Climate Assessment explains how the health |
|
of vulnerable populations such as older adults and children |
|
will be disproportionately affected by climate change. What are |
|
investments in research, not only technology research but also |
|
research to the health and other areas of research should we |
|
make to further identify, to mitigate, and maybe even remedy |
|
these risks? |
|
Dr. Ebi. Thank you for the question. It is such an |
|
important issue. As I mentioned before, the total Federal |
|
investment in this area is really incredibly small. A review by |
|
the Office of Management and Budget several years ago said that |
|
the NIH (National Institutes of Health) budget in this area is |
|
less than 0.02 percent of the budget, and it's likely fallen |
|
since then. CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) |
|
gets a little bit of money to work with communities. So what |
|
we're seeing are communities who are disadvantaged and don't |
|
have access to those who can help them. They don't have access |
|
to the research. Very few Departments of Health have access to |
|
the kinds of tools that they need. And we've got enormous |
|
opportunities to build on the research enterprise to improve |
|
the health of Americans right now. And it would be excellent if |
|
that investment would take place so that that could start soon. |
|
Mr. McAdams. Thank you. Thank you, Madam Chair. |
|
Mrs. Fletcher. Thank you. Next, we'll hear from Ms. Hill |
|
for 5 minutes. |
|
Ms. Hill. Thank you, Madam Chair. So to our guests I want |
|
to thank you so much for your testimony, and I apologize for |
|
jumping between hearings this morning. But I--based on what |
|
I've heard so far, my impression is that in this Congress we |
|
should focus on setting the stage and laying the groundwork for |
|
the next 20 to 30 years of addressing this issue. I'm hearing |
|
that we should focus on research, on infrastructure, on |
|
regulation, on public and private partnerships, and on global |
|
partnerships and leadership. And I'm wondering from you if you |
|
can talk--this question is to all of you--about in each of |
|
those areas, what are just the biggest gaps in research where |
|
we need to prioritize, the highest priority when it comes to |
|
infrastructure as we're working on an infrastructure package, |
|
the biggest concern or need when it comes to regulation, the |
|
most significant impact we can have in terms of corporate |
|
incentives related to the public-private partnerships, and when |
|
it comes to the role of foreign policy on global partnerships |
|
and leadership. I realize those are a lot of questions, but |
|
pick the area you want to focus on and then just give it to me. |
|
Dr. Kopp. So quickly to give everyone--everybody have some |
|
time, I agree with all of the things you raised. One thing I |
|
think we need to think about is that this is a |
|
multigenerational challenge, so as we make the investments |
|
today--and I'm going to talk about the research enterprise--we |
|
need to think about, well, how are we building the research |
|
enterprise to help us deal with the fact that this is a problem |
|
that's not going away; it's a chronic problem? And so I would |
|
argue we need to be investing in something comparable to the |
|
agricultural extension program in our country where we have |
|
networks of researchers deployed throughout the country who |
|
serve as bridges from the research community to the people on |
|
the ground and help build those partnerships and sustain them |
|
so that they're not dependent upon a grant here or there or |
|
personality here or there but we're really building the |
|
sustainable research infrastructure to build a link between |
|
science and people making adaptation and mitigation decisions |
|
on the ground. |
|
Dr. Francis. And maybe just a little more specifically more |
|
related to my field would be some research priorities perhaps |
|
that this country has fallen behind in my opinion in terms of |
|
model development for climate modeling, and I think this is one |
|
of our primary tools for understanding what our future holds |
|
based on different scenarios for the future. And also seasonal |
|
forecast models, so understanding how the climate change is |
|
going to affect weather patterns, so not so much what the |
|
weather's going to be tomorrow but getting a bigger lead time |
|
in weather patterns that will affect agriculture, which we |
|
talked about earlier, and other aspects to infrastructure, that |
|
sort of thing. |
|
Dr. Majkut. I think on the advanced research side focusing |
|
on having a portfolio of options available. This problem looks |
|
a lot different today than it did 10 years ago. I think we can |
|
reasonably expect it'll look pretty different 10 years from |
|
now. And we want to leave our future policymakers or when |
|
you're all much senior--more senior, a lot of options on the |
|
table. I think that's a really important thing because the |
|
scale of the change that will be needed to meet the goals in |
|
these reports is substantial, not impossible, but it's |
|
substantial. |
|
Ms. Hill. Well, and I think for you in particular, Doctor, |
|
I was curious about your thoughts on the public-private |
|
partnerships and the corporate incentives that we might be able |
|
to put into place. |
|
Dr. Majkut. I personally--and as an institution we see a |
|
fairly limited role for public-private partnerships. Largely, I |
|
think we should be focusing more on market design and |
|
particularly we support carbon tax in lieu of regulatory |
|
approaches---- |
|
Ms. Hill. OK. |
|
Dr. Majkut [continuing]. Which we presently have. |
|
Ms. Hill. OK. |
|
Dr. Ebi. I'll add an issue that hasn't been raised is |
|
multidisciplinary. We've talked about a whole range of risks of |
|
a changing climate. Those all interact. They don't happen at |
|
once. They happen together. We're seeing heat waves and |
|
wildfires. And so making sure that we have the partnerships not |
|
only with our stakeholders but across the scientific community, |
|
which requires different thinking about how we conduct our |
|
research and frankly then how universities are organized to do |
|
that research. And so there does need to be significant |
|
incentives to move from a disciplinary-based focus to a much |
|
broader focus of how we can collectively put together our |
|
wisdom, working with the knowledge from our stakeholders, to |
|
come up with the innovative solutions that we need. |
|
Ms. Hill. Thank you. |
|
Dr. Mahowald. If I can speak? |
|
Ms. Hill. OK. I can't quite hear. Yes. I'm looking at the |
|
TV. I have no idea if you know that I'm talking to you. |
|
Dr. Mahowald. So I did see you, but thank you for the |
|
question. I just want to mention also the area of carbon |
|
dioxide removal, we not only need to be working on mitigation |
|
and adaptation but a new area of carbon dioxide removal, |
|
there's a lot of potential in this area, and there's very |
|
little research money being put into this so far from the |
|
Federal Government, for example, or from companies. So this is |
|
a new area that could also be very beneficial for reducing |
|
climate risk in the future. Thank you. |
|
Ms. Hill. Thank you so much. Do any of you have anything to |
|
add in the last 30 seconds? Great. Thank you so much. I yield |
|
back. |
|
Mrs. Fletcher. Thank you. The Chair will now recognize Mr. |
|
Lipinski for 5 minutes. |
|
Mr. Lipinski. Thank you, Madam Chair. I was just speaking |
|
at an Introduce a Girl to Engineering Day event, and I was |
|
saying we need everyone that we can get on board to work on the |
|
solutions to the big problems that we face. And I mentioned |
|
specifically climate change being one of these major problems |
|
that--where we're going to need all of the work that--all the |
|
best minds and brightest to figure out how we move to a clean- |
|
energy economy. One thing I think that we can do a good job at |
|
is from the government side is putting more funding into ARPA-E |
|
(Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy) to help move some |
|
of these--get some of these innovations developed, moved |
|
forward. |
|
But another thing that I have been supportive of--and 10 |
|
years ago I actually introduced the first bipartisan carbon fee |
|
bill that was introduced where all the money would go back to |
|
the public, a fully refunded carbon fee. So I want to ask Dr. |
|
Majkut, you just briefly mentioned it. Why do you think that |
|
that would be an especially good way to approach this issue? |
|
Dr. Majkut. Three reasons. The first is when you take a |
|
direct run at the problem, which is greenhouse gas emissions, |
|
you are hopefully finding the lowest-cost option. That way |
|
you're not playing favorites, renewables versus carbon capture |
|
versus nuclear, and you're not pre-committing to things. |
|
Rather, decisionmakers throughout the country, whether they are |
|
engineers at Exxon Mobil or utility executives, are making |
|
decisions to favor low-carbon options. And all their efforts |
|
add up relatively quickly. So there's a strong cost- |
|
effectiveness and a strong efficacy argument there. |
|
The other reason is--or the second reason is that insofar |
|
as this is a question of how do we get affordable, reliable, |
|
low-carbon energy out at scale, mechanisms like carbon pricing |
|
are the easiest way to achieve scale incentives for all those |
|
decisionmakers I just mentioned. |
|
And the third is I think importantly the signal that comes |
|
from there being congressional intent on climate change for |
|
problems of these timescales, decades, is very important. It |
|
provides a lot of certainty for economic firms out in the world |
|
both here and abroad that the United States is moving in a |
|
particular direction. In the environment we have now, we don't |
|
have that. |
|
Mr. Lipinski. Thank you. Some of the questions have focused |
|
on, well, what are going to be the negative economic |
|
consequences from doing something on climate change. I want to |
|
focus from a scientific standpoint on what are the consequences |
|
to the U.S. economy that--if we fail to address this and slow |
|
the rise of greenhouse gases. What do you think--what would you |
|
worry about the most? So who wants to start? Mr. Kopp? |
|
Dr. Kopp. Sure. Thank you. So we actually had a paper out |
|
on that a couple years ago, and we looked at several different |
|
types of impacts. The two that floated to the top were both |
|
public health impacts, so the effects on mortality and the |
|
effects on the ability of people to work outdoors. Both have |
|
quite large economic impacts. We also see economic impacts |
|
associated with the stresses that warmer temperatures put on |
|
the energy system. We see economic impacts from the damages |
|
that storms cause to the coast. We see economic impacts from |
|
the effects of warmer temperatures on agriculture. And those |
|
are just the sort of sectors where we can sort of look at past |
|
behavior and say something about the future. We also have a |
|
fair bit of concern about the things that we haven't observed |
|
yet in the past that might cause risk. So when we start having |
|
more extreme events happening simultaneously, that's a |
|
potentially large impact that's harder to assess. |
|
Mr. Lipinski. Thank you. Who--anyone else want to add |
|
anything? Dr. Francis? |
|
Dr. Francis. So just to follow up with--on that a little |
|
bit, we know that in 2018 the losses due to extreme weather |
|
were roughly $160 billion just to the United States, and the |
|
year before, 2017, they were up around $300 billion, so we're |
|
not talking about small numbers here. |
|
But I think what keeps me up at night is thinking about my |
|
own daughter and the world that she's going to face if we do |
|
nothing, and it--for me the scariest thing is thinking about |
|
the security issues overseas and how people are going to be |
|
more miserable and therefore more unhappy, and we're going to |
|
be dealing with a lot more migration and wars that are the |
|
result of people just being very unhappy in their situation. |
|
Mr. Lipinski. That's very sobering, but I think it's a good |
|
way to end on that concern as we work on moving forward to |
|
solve this. And I yield back. Thank you. |
|
Mrs. Fletcher. Thank you. |
|
Before we bring the hearing to a close, I want to thank our |
|
witnesses for being here today and testifying before the |
|
Committee. |
|
The record will remain open for 2 weeks for additional |
|
statements for the Members and for any additional questions the |
|
Committee may want to ask of the witnesses. |
|
The witnesses are excused, and the hearing is now |
|
adjourned. |
|
[Whereupon, at 12:48 p.m., the Committee was adjourned.] |
|
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Appendix I |
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Answers to Post-Hearing Questions |
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Answers to Post-Hearing Questions |
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Responses by Dr. Robert Kopp |
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[GRAPHIC(S) NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT] |
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Responses by Dr. Jennifer Francis |
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[GRAPHIC(S) NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT] |
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Responses by Dr. Joseph Majkut |
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[GRAPHIC(S) NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT] |
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Responses by Dr. Kristie L. Ebi |
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[GRAPHIC(S) NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT] |
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Appendix II |
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---------- |
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Additional Material for the Record |
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Letter submitted by Representative Lizzie Fletcher |
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[GRAPHIC(S) NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT] |
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Report submitted by Representative Bill Foster |
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[GRAPHIC(S) NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT] |
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Full report can be found at: http://www.b-t.energy/reports/ |
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advancing-the-landscape/ |
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Article submitted by Representative Sean Casten |
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[GRAPHIC(S) NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT] |
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