The Presidential Transition Could Be a Disaster
By: Historical Insights
Tags: Trump, Election, President, Politics

Do you think this guy will be a good loser? (source)

“It’s almost over,” you’ve been telling yourself, “just a couple more weeks of this.” One more presidential debate, an October surprise or three, and then, in all likelihood, Joe Biden will win the presidency and the Trump era will be finished (let’s not contemplate the other outcome, both because it’s increasingly improbable and it’s too dark to behold quite yet). Except it won’t be over. One of the many not-so-endearing quirks of American democracy is that the American people are empowered to vote out bad leadership, and then forced to wait 10 weeks — two and a half months! — for bad leader to actually leave. This may work somewhat passably in normal conditions, but I shudder to think about those ten weeks this time around, in a time of crisis and confusion that desperately calls out for real leadership.

What could go wrong, you ask? Well, things could go bad in at least three different directions — a lazy transition, a vindictive transition, and a criminal transition. In the first — the Lazy Transition — it’s possible that Trump, devastated by a defeat that his narcissism didn’t let him comprehend, just simply stops doing his job. You might ask how this is different from the last four years, and I suppose you’d have a point! Perhaps Trump sinking even deeper into tweeting and watching cable TV would be fine. It might give the competent bureaucrats who have stuck out the Trump years some time to try to quietly repair their agencies and get them ready for a presidency that will at least attempt to govern responsibly. that But the worry in the Lazy Transition scenario is that the COVID-19 pandemic will likely be peaking between November and January. Critical decisions will need to be made about vaccine manufacturing and distribution, lockdowns, and other anti-pandemic measures. The economy, already foundering now, will only get worse as businesses are forced to close. Unemployment (and the loss of health insurance that comes with it) could skyrocket. Republicans, cynically rediscovering their concern for the deficit after four years of profligate borrowing, may stonewall any attempt at stimulus in an attempt to saddle the Biden administration with a terrible recession.

Without any leadership from the top, America stands a real chance of having the darkest winter in living memory, in which a deadly disease spreads relatively unchecked with no national strategy to combat it. Hundreds of thousands could die needlessly and millions more could lose their jobs if Trump decides to sulk and ignore his job. Furthermore, Trump could set the new Biden administration up for failure. Incoming Trump administration officials famously didn’t show up for transition meetings with the Obama administration — Michael Lewis wrote a whole book about it! If they couldn’t be bothered to attend these meetings when they would have greatly benefited from them, it seems quite possible that Trump’s people would just ignore the Biden team’s requests for information and access (especially if the boss makes it clear that he’s OK with this). If any or all of this happened, the Biden administration would take over in extremely difficult circumstances.

A worse version of this, with even more catastrophic consequences, would be if the nation was saddled with Vindictive Trump. This president, more than any other before him, has made it clear that he is not particularly interested in helping citizens who don’t support him or aren’t part of his coalition. Trump has recently been threatening not to “come back” to states that don’t vote for him this year in his second term. He played around with refusing to give disaster relief for the California wildfires, likely because California is a blue state. In the end, the administration agreed to send the money to California, but under any other president there would not have even been a question about whether the money would be approved. This behavior has been evident throughout his four years in office — remember that parts of the stimulus were rejected as “blue state bailouts” by Republicans. Going back even further, Trump’s refusal to help Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria (instead spending his time criticizing the mayor of San Juan) demonstrates his transactional mindset — he will only help those who have helped him.

One could imagine Trump deciding to wield coronavirus resources like a weapon, lavishing them on states that voted for him and denying much-needed resources to blue states like Illinois, New York, and California. The Trump administration could even work in the courts or through the injudicious administration of aid to work against the common-sense or science-based actions of governors who are trying to keep their citizens safe. Perhaps the most dangerous version of this would involve the distribution of a potential vaccine. Imagine that the vaccine becomes available — in limited quantities — by the middle of December. Now imagine that a wounded, embittered narcissist is in charge of the distribution of that vaccine. One can easily imagine Trump using his powers to try to direct the vaccine to states where governors have said nice things about him, or where the people have voted for him. The nation would have to endure ten more weeks of being held hostage to the vicissitudes of this man and his ego during a terrible crisis. Trump would have caused immense suffering — not only through his incompetence but through active malice.

The final scenario — a Criminal Transition — would feature many of the features of the above two. Trump probably wouldn’t work very hard at his job, and the virus crisis would get worse. But, here, the main focus of Trump and those around him would be to fleece the American taxpayer for all they could get before the saloon closes on January 20. One could imagine dozens of regulatory changes that benefited donors and friends (this is, to some extent, already happening). Perhaps he’ll make a few last trips to Trump properties, with inflated golf-cart-rental fees for the Secret Service. Foreign governments might also throw money at Trump in an attempt to get a last few favors. One might imagine a mass pardoning, as well — Trump could try to help those in his campaign and administration who have violated the law to get away with it. Maybe he would even pardon himself. Trump could effectively dare Biden to come after him and his cronies, knowing that this would use up a lot of the new administration’s political capital. The moral hazard here would be extreme. If Trump is allowed to get away with violating so many of the norms around the transition and his office, he might set a precedent for future, equally unscrupulous, administrations.

Presidential transitions — like many of the norms that Trump has threatened over the years — are fragile things. The incoming and outgoing administrations are supposed to be good sports, elevating the national interest above their hurt feelings or ideology. Letters of congratulations are exchanged, private advice sessions take place, and thousands of people throughout the federal bureaucracy do their best to keep the executive branch humming when the new people take over. I suppose it’s possible that Trump and the people he’s appointed will be good losers, putting their egos aside to do what they can for the American people, rooting for Joe Biden because he roots for America. But I wouldn’t count on it.