2021 Federal Election: O’Toole and the Pointless Election
By: Cooper Beaudette
Tags: Canada, Climate Change, Canadian Politics, Politics, Current Events

A pointless election.

Generally, I do not believe I will write often about current events. I prefer to go more in-depth into certain topics and ideas and explore them, as opposed to simply keeping up with and sharing my thoughts on the newest developing news stories. However, with this new snap election, I figured that this was a very time fair to comment on in some regard. While this is mostly a traditional article I will share a few my personal thoughts and feelings toward the election. if you want to simply read the namesake of the article, scroll past the section titled “Where I stand”

Justin Trudeau calls a snap election (Reuters)

While most predictions and statements do not age so well over time, and it’s possible that mine simply joins the hundreds of thousands of bad statements lost to time, I also believe it’s important to share knowledge and beliefs towards events at the time, as opposed to simply always waiting and seeing. (More likely to make a fool of yourself though). So here I will share a few of my thoughts on this election moreover how pointless it truly is. First off, my personal beliefs.

Where I stand

With the election taking place when is it, I will not be 18 and able to vote for the candidate of my choice. If the election had taken place when it was scheduled it would have been my first election in which I could have cast my vote. For now I am left with the decision of thinking of whom I would have voted for were I able. For me the question is not as straightforward, were I to simply vote by policy and according to my political beliefs and values, I would cast my vote for Jagmeet Singh and the NDP. I’ve looked at the platforms of the political parties and I simply prefer the party’s (and my local candidates) platform and ideas. Ideas such as, affordability and housing, climate change and unionization. The choice seems straightforward, yet because Trudeau did not fulfill his promise of electoral reform (because it’s against Liberal interests) I am forced to also consider the strategic impact of my vote, lest I want the Tories to take my riding.

Were the election to be today, I believe I would most likely be voting for the Liberal party. As much as I do like the NDP and their candidate in my riding I do not feel as though they have as much of a chance of winning and I do not want to risk losing another seat in an already close election. I am lucky in the sense that I do not have to stress and think about this as I will not be voting. This decision and thought process of mine is one that millions of Canadians experience every election. Without electoral reform millions are stuck voting for the party that they think will better prevent another from winning. Because people know what happens when you split the vote: the other person wins. So from this election were we to see either a Conservative or Liberal minority, I am hoping (whether I expect it or not is uncertain) that the NDP (or other parties) uses its unusually strong position in parliament to make electoral reform a concession from one of the two major parties.

Erin O’Toole: The Unexpected Leader

As a highschool student, I thankfully have no shame and loss of reputation, (for I have no reputation to lose) by saying that I truly did not see this election coming. I did not expect that, at least until the pandemic was gone or under control, we would be seeing any sort of unexpected election. Be it a snap election or a vote of no confidence. The other thing I especially did not expect are the current poll numbers. The current CBC polls show, surprisingly to me and many others, O’Toole is greatly outperforming expectations and has a slim lead over Prime Minister Trudeau. Of course, this is within the margin of error and polls are not always the best indicator of the results. (simply look at polls in the last two US presidential elections for proof) Regardless, this is still an incredibly positive sign for O’Toole, a leader that had very low expectations, even from his own party.

Erin O’Toole speaks at an event on Sept 4th, 2021 (The Candian Press/ Frank Gunn)

The consensus right when this election was called had been that Trudeau would win, or at least gain some more seats. That O’Toole was simply not a strong candidate; too boring and uninspiring to prove a successful candidate however this at least, seemingly doesn’t seem to be as true as previously thought. Described as a “political freight train” by CTV news O’Toole is clearly outperforming. It has been said that O’Toole may have been a very strong candidate to put forward for the conservative party as he isn’t able to scare people in a sort of way in which the Liberal party can capitalize off, unlike Andrew Scheer and Stephen Harper. He is running a much more moderate campaign therefore he cannot be portrayed as a sort of “conservative boogeyman”. Of course, were he to become the Prime Minister it remains to be seen whether this is how he will govern vs a simple strategy for victory. These sentiments and more come from David Moskrop, a columnist and political theorist at the University of Ottawa, in an interview he did with another political columnist J.J Mccullough. Erin O’Toole is proving to be a rather good campaigner and a good choice for the tories. At this moment I am far more unsure about the outcome of this election than I was at the beginning, I have no idea whether we could see a Liberal majority, an outcome close to the status quo or even potentially a conservative minority government. At this point, while I feel as though a status quo with a slight loss of seats for the Liberals is most likely at the time of writing this I am not too sure.

Erin O’Toole during a brief visit to P.E.I (Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press)

A changing party

While Erin O’Toole’s lead is certainly unexpected, something perhaps more interesting and potentially historic is the direction O’Toole seems to be taking the party. As mentioned above, O’Toole is at least campaigning on being a more moderate conservative, it seems that he is attempting to bring the Conservative Party more to the left. This attempted transition, while we are still unaware whether it is a simple strategy or a true push to the center or whether it will succeed or not remains to be seen, nevertheless if there was ever a time to do such a change that time would be now. The hatred of Trudeau amongst Canada’s conservatives is incredibly strong, the man is truly despised, and nowhere is this more true than in the Western Provinces of Canada. In Alberta, the party holds 33 out of 34 seats. In Saskatchewan, 100% of the seats going to the Tories. In Manitoba, the story is less true, even then half of all seats are Tory seats, 6 out of 7 being safe seats for the party, with more contested seats up for grabs.

Electoral Map of the Western Provinces (Excluding Cities) (Wikipedia)

The point is that the base of the party is strong and united behind their hatred of the Liberal government. With this base seemingly firmly behind him, O’Toole seems to have a very good opportunity to make such a transition, as the likelihood of them abandoning the party seems slim. The west, already a conservative fortress is determined to see the end of the Trudeau government, if there was a safe time to transition the party, it would be now.

Of course, there are threats to the party, the far-right Peoples Party for one, united in its anti-vaccination passports and mandates idealogy. Although, expectations are very low, not holding a single seat in parliament with its leader, Maxime Bernier, having lost his own in 2019.

Maxime Bernier, French language Debate 2019. (Candian Press/Adrian Wyld)

For the most part, the Conservative Party remains the only viable option for Canada’s right and it knows it. Its new stance on the Carbon Tax shows it’s moving towards the center, saying in its plan to “Secure the Environment” that “… implement an innovative, national, Personal Low Carbon savings Account. This will put a price on Carbon for Consumers without one penny going to the government.” This is a form of Carbon Tax, a position they seem to have completely turned around on since 2019. These new moderate positions on a Carbon Tax and climate change could prove an issue in the West however as mentioned above the party’s position is very secure there. Simply put there are no other viable challengers to the Conservatives, regardless of the Peoples Party. Personally, I find myself in agreement with this new transition, both strategically and ideologically. Considering the past performance of less moderate conservatives and the general idealogy of this country I believe that the Conservative party must become more moderate if it wants to survive and be a truly viable party, and being a rather left-wing person myself I prefer a more moderate conservative party. Depending on how well the party performs on the 20th we could see a new direction for the Conservatives but regardless we are witnessing a very important and historic time for the party as it tried to change and beat Trudeau.

The Pointless but Potentially Fatal Election

Regardless of my thoughts, or anyone else’s on this election one thing is clear, there is no reason, besides cynical political gain, that we are even having it. There is no point in this election, and Canadians know it. According to a Nanos poll, 76% of Canadians believe that the election is not necessary to some degree, because it isn’t. It’s clear that the pointlessness of this whole affair is hurting his image and reelection chances. This being shown with the Liberals underperforming in these new polls, the general rhetoric and accepted cynicism behind this election and even in outbursts and protests like the Prime Minister’s cancelled rally in Bolton, Ontario. So it might be and seems that the biggest issue in this election is simply the election itself. People do not want to have another election, still haunted the spectre of Covid-19. Have it be from the pandemic not being controlled in some places, a resurgence of Delta cases or even the shadow of a potential approaching Delta wave; people do not want an election.

Justin Trudeau being shouted at, Nobleton Ont

That is not to say that there are genuine issues in this election, affordability, housing prices, climate change and the Afghan refugee situation to simply name a few. Nevertheless these issues did not have to be addressed via a general election for the entire nation. Trudeau is currently struggling to properly make a case for himself and the election as a whole, because he cannot because there is no case to be made, it’s a pointless election with nothing behind it besides shrewd political gain. As much as I do not want to see the Tories win this election I will admit there is currently and would be a sort of satisfying irony to see the Prime Minister lose to a problem of his own making. Especially with how unnecessarily risky an election is during this pandemic. He thought, based on conventional wisdom towards snap elections and current appeal, this could be an easy way to gain a majority mandate to govern and at the time of writing this, it seems he was wrong. As much as I do not want the Liberal minority to be replaced with a Conservative one, I will admit there would be some satisfaction to be had to see Justin Trudeau lose in this way, in this dangerous and pointless election of his own making.