NFL Week 16 Locks
By: Craig Ebinger
Tags: NFL Week 16, Nfl Week 16 Picks, NFL, Football, NFL Picks

ATS Picks: 67–63–2

O/U Picks: 68–61–3

Falcons @ Chiefs (-11): O/U 52.5

ATS: Falcons: 6–8, Chiefs: 7–7

O/U: Falcons: 6–8, Chiefs: 7–7

The Falcons have lost 3 straight games all by less than one score. The Chiefs have won 9 straight with their last 6 coming by less than a single score. Le’Veon will get an opportunity to shine in this one as he will be the lead back for the Chiefs.

I’m going with the trend of the single score wins/losses by these teams and taking the 11 points with the Falcons. I expect a lot of points to be scored by both teams. Look for a final in the range of 34–26 here.

Picks: Falcons +11 (Padlock), Over 52.5 (Deadbolt)

Giants @ Ravens (-10): O/U 44

ATS: Giants: 8–5, Ravens: 8–5–1

O/U: Giants: 3–9–1, Ravens: 7–7

Daniel Jones is back in this one, but whether or not that actually helps the Giants is still to be determined. When he returned two weeks ago, he was clearly limited. Giants fans hanging onto their division title hopes are eager to see if he’s able to move better. With the Dolphins miraculous win last night (Fitzmagic truly is real), the Ravens need a win here to stay attached to them for the final wild card spot in the AFC. Their hot offense will get a big test against a tough Giants defense.

I’m going with the Ravens laying 10 points. I admire Daniel Jones toughness, but until I see him able to move better, I don’t trust him to make this offense go. And the Ravens offense has been on fire of late. I expect that to continue here in a tough loss for the Giants.

Picks: Ravens -10 (Deadbolt), Over 44 (Deadbolt)

Bears (-8.5) @ Jaguars: O/U 46.5

ATS: Bears: 7–7, Jaguars: 6–8

O/U: Bears: 6–8, Jaguars: 7–7

The Bears and their suddenly powerhouse of an offense head to Jacksonville here to play the current frontrunner for the 1st overall pick in next year’s draft. The Jaguars will be going with Mike Glennon in this one, so it looks like Minshew Mania is once again on pause. The Jags won’t have their best player this season in James Robinson, which doesn’t bode well for this offense.

I’m laying the 8.5 points with the Bears. It seems too obvious which is the only thing making me pause a bit, but I don’t see the Jaguars scoring many (if any) points in this one. And I do see the Bears continuing their streak of 30+ point games. Bears big here.

Picks: Bears -8.5 (Deadbolt), Under 46.5 (Padlock)

Browns (-6.5) @ Jets: O/U 43.5

ATS: Browns: 6–8, Jets: 5–9

O/U: Browns: 8–6, Jets: 5–9

Covid gives this game a level of intrigue it didn’t previously have. The Browns will be without 4 of their top WRs in this one so it’ll be very interesting to see how their passing game looks. Fortunately for them, they are an extremely run-first team which sets up their play action passing game, so I’m not sure if it’ll affect them too much. The Jets come into this one fresh off of their first victory of the year and don’t control their own destiny anymore when it comes to getting the first pick in next year’s draft.

I’m going with the Jets here getting 6.5 points. I think this is going to be a low scoring game controlled by the Browns, but I don’t think it gets out of hand due to the WR situation they’re facing. I think the Jets carry some momentum from last week into this game and stay close enough to make this one semi-interesting.

Picks: Jets +6.5 (Padlock), Under 43.5 (Deadbolt)

Colts @ Steelers (-1.5): O/U 42.5

ATS: Colts: 8–6, Steelers: 8–6

O/U: Colts: 8–6, Steelers: 6–7–1

Important AFC battle here. The Colts are currently in 2nd in the AFC South due to the Titans holding the tiebreaker. A win against the 11–3 Steelers would go a long way to helping them finish the season in 1st place. The Steelers offense has suddenly vanished, contributing largely to their current 3-game losing skid. Not only have they lost 1st place in the AFC, but they now face the very real possibility of losing their division lead. To close out the season they travel to Cleveland to face the Browns, who currently trail them in the division by just a game. They do hold the tiebreaker over the Browns, which means if they win this one, they win the division before next week’s game even happens. If they lose this game, then next week’s game is for the division (assuming the Browns handle their own business against the Jets today).

I’m going with the Colts getting a point and a half here. I simply have no confidence in the Steelers offense right now. They can’t run the ball. They drop passes. Big Ben suddenly looks old. I’ve lost all faith in this team. On top of that, the Colts have pretty quietly been on one of the most consistently good, well-rounded teams in the league all season long. Give me the Colts.

Picks: Colts +1.5 (Deadbolt), Over 42.5 (Padlock)

Bengals @ Texans (-7.5): O/U 44.5

ATS: Bengals: 8–6, Texans: 5–9

O/U: Bengals: 7–7, Texans: 7–6–1

The Bengals had their Super Bowl last week by beating up on the Steelers on national TV. They played with a level of energy that was inspiring. The Texans have now lost 3 straight and have looked really bad. This game stinks.

I’m going with the Texans laying 7.5 points. The Bengals can’t possibly replicate the energy they brought last week, so I’m expecting a bit of a hangover for them following that win. And I still think Deshaun Watson is just that good.

Picks: Texans -7.5 (Padlock), Over 44.5 (Deadbolt)

Panthers @ Football Team (-1): O/U 42

ATS: Panthers: 8–6, Football Team: 8–4–2

O/U: Panthers: 6–8, Football Team: 4–9–1

The Panthers travel to Washington to face their old coach Ron Rivera. This game is meaningless for the Panthers, but extremely meaningful for The Football Team. With a win and Giants loss to the Ravens, Washington will have turned a 1–5 start into a division title.

I’m going with Washington laying a point here. It doesn’t look like Alex Smith will be playing today, and this pick certainly isn’t me putting my faith in Dwayne Haskins. This is a pick putting my faith in Ron Rivera and in this team playing extremely motivated football against his former team with a chance to win the division title. I think this defense causes the Panthers offense headaches all game, and they win a low-scoring battle.

Picks: Football Team -1 (Padlock), Under 42 (Deadbolt)

Broncos @ Chargers (-2.5): O/U 48

ATS: Broncos: 8–6, Chargers: 7–7

O/U: Broncos: 7–7, Chargers: 8–6

The Broncos looked atrocious last week against the Bills. The Chargers played with a lot of fight against a team with a lot on the line and pulled out a tough overtime victory.

Give me the Chargers laying 2.5 points. I expect Justin Herbert to ball out as he looks to lock up the Offensive Rookie of the Year award. The Broncos won’t have much of an answer for their passing attack.

Picks: Chargers -2.5 (Fort Knox), Over 48 (Deadbolt)

Rams @ Seahawks (-1): O/U 47

ATS: Rams: 8–6, Seahawks: 7–7

O/U: Rams: 4–10, Seahawks: 7–7

Huge NFC West showdown. The Rams clearly were looking ahead to this game for two weeks now based off of their awful performance last week in a loss to the Jets where they lost control of the division. The Seahawks can clinch the division title with a win here. If their defense continues to play at the level they have over the past month, this team will be scary in January once again.

I’m going Seahawks laying a point here. This defense has been balling out lately and the Rams left me very uninspired last week. I think this is a classic low scoring division showdown where Russell Wilson pulls out a scoring drive late to win it.

Picks: Seahawks -1 (Deadbolt), Under 47 (Padlock)

Eagles (-3) @ Cowboys: O/U 49.5

ATS: Eagles: 5–9, Cowboys: 4–10

O/U: Eagles: 6–8, Cowboys: 8–6

Jalen Hurts will look to continue his impressive start to his career in his first NFC East battle. Fortunately for him, the Cowboys have not been able to stop many offenses all season long.

I’m going with the Eagles laying a field goal here. I like what I’ve seen from Hurts. I expect this offense to run all over the Cowboys and for him to be efficient enough through the air to win this one. NFC East battle are always tight, but I simply don’t have confidence in the Cowboys defense.

Picks: Eagles -3 (Padlock), Over 49.5 (Padlock)

Titans @ Packers (-3): O/U 54

ATS: Titans: 7–7, Packers: 8–6

O/U: Titans: 10–3–1, Packers: 8–5–1

30. 45. 41. 31. 46. Those are the point totals for the Titans in their last 5 games. And it all starts with Derrick Henry making a legitimate MVP push as the season winds down. Speaking of MVP candidates, the Packers have one of their own in Aaron Rodgers. He’s been playing incredible football all season long, and I expect this game to be no different for him against a Titans defense that can’t pressure the QB.

I’m going Titans getting 3 points here. I expect an absolute shootout. The Packers consistently have shown that they are incapable of stopping physical offenses. The Titans can’t really stop anyone through the air. It seems to match up so perfectly to both of these offenses’ strengths. In a battle of two of the league’s best, I feel better having the points.

Picks: Titans +3 (Deadbolt), Over 54 (Fort Knox)