Curbing the power of Airbnb in Dublin Housing: the Covid Effect
By: N.A. Mcnally
Tags: Homepage, Airbnb, Data Journalism

Since 2016, Airbnb has been under pressure in Dublin, with authorities increasingly seeking to curb the effects the short-term lettings platform has had on housing availability and pricing in the capital. Examination of recent data reveal that legislation enacted last year to limit short-term lettings had begun to have an effect, which has accelerated in the Covid pandemic. Landlords are shifting their properties from short-term to long-term rental, but still significant concentration among commercial entities remains on Airbnb, and compliance to the new regulation is in question.

2019: Planning Regulations start to affect Airbnb listings

Analysis of data on Airbnb listings since 2018, obtained from the Inside Airbnb project shows the beginning of a slight decline in short-term lets for entire homes or apartments available in Dublin from August 2019. This follows the enactment of the Residential Tenancies (Amendment) (№2) Bill 2018, which came into force on 1st July 2019. Under this legislation, home owners may let their entire home for up to 14 days at a time with a cumulative cap of 90 days per year. If the property is a second home, and it is within a rent pressure zone (RPZ), planning permission for a change of use to short-term letting is now required.

In August 2019, the first signs of an effect became apparent, with listings dropping for the first time — by just 1.55%. This incremental trend continued with falls of 3% and 2% in September and October respectively. But from December the number of lettings available began to fall in larger numbers, with year-on-year drops averaging 7.5% between December and March.

2020: A Dramatic Crash in Tourism moves the Airbnb Market

The Covid-19 pandemic resulted in a dramatic fall-off in the number of overseas travellers into Ireland. The latest data from the CSO show visitor numbers down 94% year-on-year in the period April to August. The slowdown began in March when visits fell 57%, with the cancellation of the St. Patrick’s Day festival, the traditional start to the Irish tourist season.

Following the announcement of lockdown restrictions and severe limitations on inbound overseas travel, a severe contraction in Airbnb listings began, leading to a 22% drop in available properties between October 2019 and October 2020. This represents an overall 26% drop since the change in legislation in June 2019.

Landlords move Properties from Short-term to Long-term Letting

Comparing the Airbnb data with data on listings of homes to let on leading Irish property website Daft.ie, it becomes clear that landlords have been shifting their properties out of short-term letting into long-term tenancies. Daft.ie has seen a marked increase in properties available to rent since the beginning of the pandemic and as seen from the graph below, the changes in stock mirror each other.

Overall, it appears the stock of property available on the market has remained stable over the past two years with the number of properties available hovering around 6,500. But reviewing the breakdown, a growing trend becomes apparent: the proportion of long term lets (available on Daft.ie) as a proportion of the whole market has grown from 21% to 46%.

Concentration Effects on Airbnb: Commercial Landlords in Dublin City

Reviewing the properties that have been removed from Airbnb between the months of March and October reveals that the bulk of these listings were held by hosts who managed multiple properties. The map above shows the properties which had been operating over the long term as high occupancy holiday lets by hosts with multiple listings, but which had ceased operating as Airbnbs by October 2020. As can be seen these 900 properties are concentrated in the Dublin city centre area.

In Feb 2020, 27% of Airbnb listings for full homes in Dublin were controlled by 115 hosts — either landlords with multiple properties or commercial entities letting out multiple properties (more than 5 properties each). This represented 1083 of the 3937 properties then available. Of these, the top 25 companies managed 500 properties. Those numbers have changed dramatically during the Covid pandemic, falling by more than 50%.

However, even with the reduction in properties available to rent, Airbnbs in Dublin are still overwhelmingly dominated by commercial lettings as the treemap above shows. In October, 536 properties were managed by hosts with more than 3 properties. The top 10 landlords are renting out 226 properties between them, mostly within the Dublin city centre area. 21% of full home or apartments available for short term let in Dublin currently on Airbnb are offered by hosts who have more than three properties available. Hovering on any of the above names shows how many properties they were each offering in October 2020.

Are the Planning Regulations of 2019 being enforced effectively?

The question then arises: how many of these properties are in direct contravention of the planning regulations introduced in June 2019? Figures released by the Minister for Housing, Local Government and Heritage on foot of a parliamentary question by Aodhán Ó Ríordáin in September, found that only 32 applications for change of use planning permission had been sought since July 2019. Of those applications, none have been granted.

Dublin City Council has put a special task-force in place to tackle the issue of non-compliance with the new regulations and warning letters have been issued to 570 landlords. Anyone found offering short-term letting of such properties without authorisation is liable for a maximum fine of €5,000 and/or six months imprisonment if convicted in the district court. Dublin City Council believes 60–70% of those who have received a warning letter are now in compliance, and has issued proceedings against just 4 landlords thus far according to reporting from the Irish Times in November.

How those court proceedings progress, and how further investigations develop will be a major factor in the continuing reshaping of the rental market in Dublin in 2021 and beyond.