Monday Night Football Prop Shopping
Tags: Sportsbetting, NFL

Looking at some player prop markets ahead of what should be a pretty good Monday Night Football game.

Monday Night Football doesn’t usually end up with great matchups, so we’re really lucky we end Week 14 with arguably the best game on the slate this week with a big NFC West showdown between the Rams and Cardinals. The Cardinals can almost put the division out of reach and maintain their hold on the number one seed in the NFC with a win. The Rams can close the gap in the division to one game and at the very least stay in the hunt for a home game in the Wild Card round. These are two fun teams with some explosive offensive pieces so here’s a look at some of the prop markets for key guys in tonight’s big game.

Kyler Murray

Pass Yards

Over/Under 265.5 -113 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

There isn’t a lot of variation in the number or the juice on this prop. The total is set a yard lower at DraftKings Sportsbook, but it’s -115. Personally I’d prefer to pay a couple of cents less of juice because the likelihood that this bet comes down to that one yard isn’t very high so either way here I’m going to take the current juice at FanDuel. I don’t have a strong read here. The Rams are a middle of the pack pass defense and Murray has thrown for more than 265 yards just once since October 3rd (he obviously missed some games in that stretch) but even though he ran the ball a season-high ten times last week, I think the Cardinals would prefer he not have to run the ball so much.

Rush Yards

Under 26.5 -110 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

Over 27.5 -113 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

The price on under 27.5 at FanDuel is -113 and once again I’d pay less juice for this one. As I wrote above, I think the Cardinals would like Kyler to run less in his second game back from an ankle injury. I don’t have any idea if he will or not, but this is a team with real Super Bowl aspirations, particularly if they get home field advantage in the playoffs, so they’d rather not jeopardize that. If I’m way wrong, and I very well could be, the over at DK is -120, so pay the -113 instead and sweat out the extra yard.

Matthew Stafford

Pass Yards

Over 280.5 -120 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

Under 283.5–110 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

The under is the same price at FanDuel as it is at DraftKings, so if you want to play the under, FanDuel is definitely the place to go bet it. Over 283.5 is -110 at FanDuel so it’s just a matter of how much insurance you want to buy. Most of the projections I’ve seen have his numbers close to this range so the -120 might be worth paying for a little bit of peace of mind. Stafford threw for 280 yards in the first game against the Cardinals, but the Rams were in a negative game state most of the game and the Cardinals defense has been playing well against quarterbacks the last couple of weeks.

Zach Ertz

Receptions

Over 3.5 -155 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

Under 3.5 +124 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Receiving Yards

Under 40.5 -115, Over 40.5 -105 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

I don’t have a strong feel on which way to bet here, but I’m interested to see how Ertz fits into the Cardinals offense going forward. This is the fourth game he’s played with Kyler Murray as his quarterback and one was against the Texans and one was against Andy Dalton who threw four interceptions, so we don’t have a gauge how much of a security blanket he’ll be in tight game situations just yet. The yards total is 41.5 at DraftKings and the difference in juice isn’t enough for me to suggest it. The under on receptions might be an interesting small sprinkle bet with Deandre Hopkins getting healthier and back in the mix.

Odell Beckham Jr

Receiving Yards

Over 40.5 -105 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

I’d ignore OBJ’s output last week when looking at his props this week. Playing against the Jaguars isn’t going to be a good indicator for any team what to expect from any of their players the following week. The Jaguars are so non-competitive that I wouldn’t glean anything from stats against them. The previous week OBJ was targeted 10 times against Green Bay so it seems like Matthew Stafford found a good rapport with him pretty quickly. Stafford is good at spreading the ball around to his receivers, but with Cooper Kupp and Van Jefferson reliable targets as well, defenses can’t just sell out on OBJ so I think he has a chance to make a few grabs. It’s a lot to ask defenses to cover Kupp, Jefferson and Beckham so I’ll roll with OBJ over Jefferson just because his prop is set a little bit lower.