Why the Sixers Need Joel Embiid to Keep Shooting Threes
By: Spencer Young
Tags: Sports, Basketball, Philadelphia 76ers, NBA, Future

JOEL EMBIID SWUNG his arm into the air, yelling in triumph towards the TD Garden crowd.

Moments earlier, he had hit a decisive three-pointer to put the Sixers up 100–92 with just over 4 minutes to play in the fourth quarter. After setting a screen for Tobias Harris, he stepped into his shot confidently, despite the audible yell of a fan exclaiming, “Rebound, rebound, rebound!” as soon as he caught the ball. Embiid held his follow-through high, the ball softly splashed through the net, and he celebrated, knowing he had silenced his critics.

This game was a response to the intense criticism Embiid had faced earlier. With a line of 38/13/6 (and 2 three-pointers too), he fully looked like the dominant interior force that O’Neal had been urging him to be.

But watch this game again (Celtics vs. Sixers, December 12th), and it will quickly become apparent that Embiid is not the same player as O’Neal, Barkley, and other forces of nature who dominated at times with sheer size.

No, Embiid is playing in a different era, where his unique combination of footwork, grace, and technique paired with his size makes him unstoppable — and not just one of those factors exclusively.

For as many times as Embiid ran straight to the block for a post-up or dominated on the offensive glass, he hit face-up jump-shots, set strong screens, ran the floor in transition, or even hit threes.

He is a unique offensive specimen, one who shouldn’t be exclusively deployed in the post. This isn’t the NBA of old, and there are so many defenses, rules, and reasons why the isolation post-up isn’t the best offensive system — it should only be an offensive option.

He’s [Joel Embiid] the toughest player in the league to match up with, but we don’t talk about him the way we talk about Luka, Giannis, Anthony Davis, James — we don’t ever say that about him. -Charles Barkley

And with every game that passes, Embiid continues to show why he is a unique offensive force and the NBA’s best center.

On a nationally-televised Christmas Day game vs. the Bucks, matched up against Giannis Antetokounmpo, whom O’Neal previously compared himself to due to Antetokounmpo’s relentless attacking of the paint, Embiid dominated. Though the Bucks had the best record in the NBA coming into the game, the Sixers fully looked like the more dominant team — spearheaded by Embiid.

Being guarded by the stout Brook Lopez, and with Antetokounmpo and a variety of long-limbed defenders nearby, Embiid didn’t attack through straight isolation post-ups, however.

Instead, he ran the floor in transition, took defenders off the dribble, hit face-up jump-shots, set screens, and took 6 threes, making 3 of his attempts. He did all of this damage on offense while also guarding Antetokounmpo, teaming up with Al Horford to hold him to 18 points on a putrid 29.6% field goal percentage.

Said color commentator Doris Burke of ESPN, who was at the game, “You can deploy him [Embiid] all over the floor,” adding, “this guy is a monster talent.”

And indeed, at the end of the game, Embiid finished with an O’Neal-Esque 31 points and 11 rebounds, while barely playing in the fourth quarter because the Sixers led by as much as 29.

Antetokounmpo, meanwhile, took 7 threes while being dared to shoot by the 76ers, and he missed all of his attempts.

Embiid responded to O’Neal and Barkley’s criticism in person, saying, “I like being criticized. For them to say I have the potential to be the best player in the world and I haven’t shown that. They’ve been there, they’ve done it, they’re Hall of Famers so it just shows me that I’ve got to play harder and I’ve got to be dominant like I can.”

He concluded, “I think it was great for me.”

Will the growth of Embiid as a shooter outpace that of Giannis Antetokounmpo? (Link)

FOR AS INEFFECTIVE as he has seemed when shooting threes, Embiid is a very effective shooter with a broader perspective.

As a rookie, he was an above-average three-point shooter at 36.7%, though this was on the lowest volume of his career (3.2 attempts per game). His shooting would influence how teams guarded him, as many centers defended him on the perimeter as his shooting was on the level of Karl Anthony-Towns — though, with hindsight, his shooting ability isn’t even close to Towns.

But what is the value, the reason behind the shooting craze in the NBA? Sure, some players are terrific shooters, but the reason teams encourage average shooters to station themselves behind the arc is simple: it unlocks creativity and space on offense.

For Embiid, three-point shooting has unlocked his most effective, yet simple move: the pump fake and the drive.

Almost every center seems to fall for Embiid’s pump fake — a slow, over-extended raising of the ball that exaggerates his shooting motion. And after faking out his defender, Embiid can show off his terrific speed as he forays to the rim. With a full head of steam, defenders can only foul him, hoping he doesn’t convert his shot. This phenomenon has lead to him being the most prolific foul-drawing player outside of James Harden since entering the NBA.

Even if defenders don’t bite for Embiid’s fake (teams are adopting a “no-jumping policy” on his pump fakes), he can still waltz into mid-range jump-shots, where he shoots an above-average 40% for his career.

Still, the Sixers see even more value in Embiid shooting threes besides adding to his offensive arsenal. The Sixers have invested in Ben Simmons, who essentially refuses to shoot threes, and Al Horford, a lower-volume three-point shooter. All of this clogs the lane for Embiid, who has to find ways to exist on offense when Simmons, Horford, or even Tobias Harris need room in the paint.

The simplest solution? Have Embiid spot-up behind the three-point line.

Also, in the era of load management, three-point shooting is a way for Embiid to alleviate the stress on his body — while still playing in games. It is so important that Embiid, who is fragile at worst and injury-prone at best, develops a three-point shot because doing so will mean he doesn’t have to put his body on the line until the NBA Playoffs, when every game matters.

This season, his shooting numbers are up: 33.0% from three and 83.8% from the free-throw line, all of which are up from last year on a slightly decreased volume.

Even if the Sixers wanted to post-up Embiid 20–25 times a game like O’Neal suggests (he is still by far the leader in post-ups this season), they couldn’t do so for 2 reasons that feed into each other.

First, doing so would alienate the other 3 stars on the team, whom the Sixers have invested over $447 million in over the next 5 years. The Sixers have built a core of athletic, two-way stars, but they sacrificed three-point shooting as a result.

Second, teams run a zone defense against the Sixers more than against any other team in the league. And with the Sixers’ iffy outside shooting, they are justified in using this strategy. Zone defense has seen a revival in today’s NBA — and it is something that O’Neal and Barkley didn’t have to deal with.

Without the ability to shoot threes, Embiid will never be able to fully take advantage of zone defenses, as zone defenses eliminate post-up chances.

Back in O’Neal and Barkley’s heyday, there was an “illegal defense” rule that banned zone, and the three-second violation on offense wasn’t initiated until O’Neal became too overwhelming. Compare that to today, where rules favor playing a perimeter-oriented style.

If one of Embiid’s former teammates, like J.J Redick or Marco Bellinelli get the slightest amount of contact behind the arc, they are going to the line for three free-throws. If Embiid is grabbed, mangled, and pushed in the lane, there is only a 50/50 chance he will get the call.

How is Embiid supposed to post-up when surrounded by three long-armed, athletic defenders in a zone? That is a question that Barkley and O’Neal, even when at the peak of their abilities, would not be able to answer.