Five Landmines Waiting for Biden
By: John Dean
Tags: Biden, Politics, President, Policy, Government

Five Landmines Waiting for Biden

Success Will be a Challenge for the New President

By PFC TRACEY L. HALL-LEAHY —wikimedia

Joe Biden’s electoral win is cause to celebrate. The failed presidency of Trump has been shown the door. But after the partying ends in January, the work must begin. The coronavirus is out of control — there’s even a third wave in California. The economic crisis continues. Racial injustice and climate change are not going away.

Unless President Biden gets off to a strong, smart start, we could be in for four years of disappointment, stalemate, and regression.

Landmines

Except for a covey of QAnon-following nutjobs and congenital Republicans, most of us want Biden to succeed. We are ready to help him. Some of us have even resurrected John F. Kennedy’s quote from his 1961 inaugural: “Ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country.”

Unfortunately, just effort on Biden’s part and help from many others won’t guarantee success. The new president will have to either work with or tame Republicans in Congress, hope the recently announced virus vaccines work as promised and are distributed quickly, and hope against a huge natural disaster or foreign policy crisis.

But those things are not really landmines. Those risks are foreseeable. You step on a landmine because you don’t see it.

Here are the Biden landmines:

Scandal

Until recently, the Hunter Biden scandal appeared to be over. The story had dropped out of the mainstream news with the exceptions of Fox and a few others. On December 1, however, Attorney General Barr appointed a special prosecutor to investigate the Department of Justice’s Trump-Russia probe. Under the terms of his appointment, prosecutor US Attorney John Durham will continue his investigation into the start of the Biden administration. While it appears unlikely, if Durham were to find wrongdoing by Hunter Biden and his father in their dealings with the wife of the former mayor of Moscow, a landmine could exist.

Hunter Biden also has announced that his taxes are subject to audit by the IRS. While the audit could be harassment from the outgoing Trump administration, if tax fraud were to be found in connection with Hunter Biden’s alleged dealings with the Ukrainians and others, a landmine could exist.

In addition to the “investigating the investigation,” other scandals could happen, like those plaguing the Clinton administration’s early years. Remember Travelgate? Whitewater? And there were others. Any similar “scandal” or controversy can derail a presidential initiative and dissipate scarce political capital.

To date, it appears the Biden administration will begin without a scandal. That’s a huge plus. With luck, it will stay that way.

Illness/Disability

Joe Biden appears to be remarkably healthy for his years. However, Biden’s age and the possibility of a disabling illness or decline cannot be ignored. While hoping that landmine never shows up, it must be acknowledged. Enough said.

Inflation

Few economists today are raising concerns about the prospect of inflation despite massive federal spending. That could change if the virus vaccines’ roll-out is successful and the economy lurches forward to make up for lost time. Unlikely? History suggests that strong economic growth, high deficits, and low unemployment make for inflation. That is what we could get if the economy turns around as quickly and as robustly as most of us hope.

Will the trade-off be worth it? Probably yes, assuming the inflation is not “runaway inflation.” If the latter happens, President Biden will be dealing with yet another crisis.

For most of us, the risk of inflation is well worth an effective effort to help those currently suffering from the economic crisis.

Cracks in the Democratic Party

Like it or not, Joe Biden was the first choice of very few Democrats in 2020. Throughout the campaign, especially until the South Carolina primary, he generated limited enthusiasm compared to Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and even lessor candidates like Pete Buttigieg or VP Kamala Harris. Since his election, enthusiasm has grown, but dissatisfaction remains, especially in the party’s progressive wing.

Since election day, Biden, as promised, has been assembling a diverse cabinet but has refrained from endorsing several legislative proposals championed by progressives, including total student loan cancellation, universal health care, and the Green New Deal. While some speculate Biden is waiting until after control of the Senate is determined, others believe that Biden will prove to be the centrist that progressives describe him as. Concerns have also been raised about “corporate influence” reflected in some of Biden’s cabinet picks.

Biden’s policy positions, still posted on his campaign (and now transition) website, reflect many progressive priorities. Only time will tell whether Biden will fully pursue those priorities after January 20. Should Biden materially move away from the progressive agenda, disunity in the party could follow, something that would bode ill for the party’s prospects in 2022 and even 2024.

Will cracks in the party develop that could jeopardize not only its short-term electoral prospects but also its future? Probably not. But if you listen to some of the rhetoric of the party’s progressive left, it’s possible. Representative Ilhan Omar (D-MN), a member of “the Squad,” is selling t-shirts on her campaign website reading, “F**k Around and Find Out.” Some translate this as a warning to the party’s mainstream not to blow off progressives and their agenda. Not a good sign.

Kamala Harris

Vice-President Elect Harris is already the front-runner to succeed President Biden at the end of his first or second term. But what happens if she becomes controversial, setting in motion a mad scramble among at least a dozen prominent Democrats to succeed Biden? That scenario, while not probable, represents a land-mine. If Harris trips up, however you want to define it, the 2024 race for the Democratic nomination will be on. Among the candidates waiting in the wings are Governor Cuomo, Stacey Abrams, Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, and even Elizabeth Warren.

If a new fight “for the soul of the Democratic party” were to emerge, it could operate to marginalize Biden at a time when he needs party unity the most. Candidates seeking to differentiate themselves from the “Biden-Harris administration” will not help get a Biden agenda enacted into law.

How does the potential battle royale that could result from a Harris implosion differ from the ideological battle between progressives and centrists? The latter is about policy and the former personalities. Because Harris is being labeled a pragmatic centrist, it could make a potentially destructive ideological fight more likely if she stumbles.

Too Early for Dire Predictions

No one is predicting any of these landmine explosions will happen. In discussing them, the hope is that they can be avoided. As the old Chinese proverb reads, “Dig a well before the house is on fire.” Democrats need to watch out for danger. And avoid it.