April 2021 CoupCast Update
By: Matt Scott Frank
Tags: Politics, Machine Learning, Coup Détat, Forecasting, International Relations

Djibouti, Chad and Niger face the highest risk of coup this month. Niger experienced a failed coup attempt on March 31 as the country underwent its first successful democratic transition.

Landscape with sheep and sheepdog by Walter Bertram Potter

CoupCast is a machine learning based early warning forecasting platform for estimating the risk of illegal leadership turnover each month for every country across the globe. These updates provide insight into technical changes/updates, notable events in the previous month, and a more in-depth overview of what to expect in the new month coming forward.

The official web dashboard for CoupCast can be found here and information regarding the underlying data (REIGN) and updates to our monthly data can be found here.

Feel free to reach out to either myself (mfrank@oneearthfuture.org) or Clayton Besaw (cbesaw@oneearthfuture.org) for any questions regarding our CoupCast platform or analyses contained in the updates.

April 2021 CoupCast Updates

Data and algorithm updates:

Fixed previously incorrect dates for elections in the following countries: Uzbekistan, Bulgaria, Haiti, Ethiopia

Added elections that were previously missing for the following countries: Micronesia, Armenia, Libya

Added cancelled/voided status to previously anticipated election events in Nepal. Due to institutional reasons, snap elections were declared null and void.

Changed Libya’s regime type from Warlordism to Civilian Provisional. This was done in conjunction with assumption of Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh to office under the new Government of National Accord. Libya is set to hold elections in December and successful elections will likely result in full democracy status.

Risk forecast for April 2021:

Djibouti tops our list of countries most at risk of coup for this month as the country heads into elections on April 9 that would appear to have a more or less predetermined outcome. Incumbent president Omar Guelleh is seeking a fifth term in order to extend his roughly 22-year rule while his government regularly engages in repressive actions against both his political opposition and journalists.

Guelleh’s long tenure in office may be contributing to the country’s high estimated risk of coup, which may also be exacerbated by the country’s economic contraction brought on by the coronavirus pandemic. Although economic growth is projected to resume in 2022, the 1% economic contraction in 2020 has challenged the country’s ability to respond to the pandemic and service its fairly substantial debts.

Meanwhile, Chad is also heading into elections on April 11 in which incumbent Idriss Deby will be seeking a sixth term. Throughout the campaign period Deby has faced protests against his continued rule, which the government has responded harshly to. Security forces have forcibly broken up demonstrations and arbitrarily detained protesters, citing laws banning public gatherings that are ostensibly aimed at preventing the spread of coronavirus.

Opposition politicians and parties have faced similarly harsh repression. Human Rights Watch found that 112 opposition party members and members of civil society have been arrested, while the home of opposition candidate Yaya Dillo was raided by security forces, resulting in the death of his mother. Subsequently, the main opposition candidate, Saleh Kebzabo, dropped out of the presidential race, citing the climate of insecurity.

Although both Djibouti and Chad are experiencing spikes in risk that are fairly isolated and tied to their elections, Niger experienced a coup attempt on March 31 and is projected to have an elevated level of coup risk that will eventually taper off towards the end of the year.

Two days before president Mohamed Bazoum was sworn into office a military unit attempted to storm the presidential palace but were ultimately fended off by presidential guard forces. Bazoum’s inauguration marks the first successful democratic transition since independence in a country that has experienced successful coups in 1974, 1996, 1999 and 2010.

Although very little has been reported on the coup attempt, we can note that past research has shown that democratizing countries have an especially pronounced risk of coup as incumbents lose capacity to engage in coup-proofing. Meanwhile, other research has suggested that countries tend to maintain their previous political trajectories in the aftermath of failed coups, with liberalizing countries continuing to liberalize and countries that are becoming more autocratic continuing to become more autocratic.

Although this same research on failed coups also suggests that a failed putsch can provide leaders with the opportunity to consolidate their rule by providing a legal basis to remove plotters and opponents, Bazoum still faces myriad challenges. To begin with, his electoral opponent continues to refuse to concede defeat, which has sparked antigovernment demonstrations.

More importantly, however, armed groups have continued to terrorize Niger’s civilian population with no end in sight. Bazoum’s ability to achieve political stability will in large part be a function of his ability to first achieve greater internal security. However, given the scale of this challenge, such stability may still be a distant goal for now.

Turning our attention elsewhere, it is worth briefly noting that last week the former crown prince of Jordan Hamzah bin Hussein was placed under house arrest, while a number of others were also detained, amidst rumors and suggestions that a plot to overthrow King Abdullah was in the works.

Although there is unsurprisingly a large amount of opacity surrounding these events, for our purposes we can note that to the extent such a plot existed (and it is not clear it did exist) the arrest of plotters prior to any action being taken would not meet our definition of a coup attempt. Moreover, it does appear that the country’s political leadership is currently stable, though as regional experts have noted this is perhaps the most serious political crisis the country has experienced in recent memory.

Looking at where this month fits into the rest of the year’s projected coup risk, April is certainly a high point due to the multiple elections being held in high-risk countries and last month’s coup attempt in Niger. However, coup risk is projected to decrease heading into the summer before roughly levelling off.