Five Ways to Build a Superintelligence
By: Gunnar De Winter
Tags: Artificial Intelligence, Science, Future, Neuroscience, Brain

Five Ways to Build a Superintelligence

Artificial intelligence is only one of the ways to develop an agent with ‘superintelligence’. There are other paths.

(Pixabay, geralt)

Superintelligence?

Several people, including Stephen Hawking, Martin Rees, and Elon Musk, have voiced concerns about artificial intelligence and its potential dominance over humans.

However, even leaving aside the practical challenges in developing artificial general intelligence, what these claims/warnings actually refer to is superintelligence, or:

…a hypothetical agent that possesses intelligence far surpassing that of the brightest and most gifted human minds.

Of course, artificial general intelligence fits the bill. But are there other ways to — hypothetically — develop such an agent?

Well, yes.

Let’s briefly consider five.

AI

As mentioned above, artificial general intelligence is what we mostly think of when we are considering superintelligence.

At the moment, artificial intelligence can do some pretty amazing things, but displaying a domain-crossing general intelligence is not one of them. AI/machine learning systems are currently fairly constrained in the breadth of their capacities. Data processing and pattern recognition? Sure. Inferring causation and learning from limited examples/samples? Hmm, work in progress…

So, artificial intelligence? Yep. Artificial general intelligence? Not yet. (Then when? Depends on who you’d ask.)

However, for AI to lead to superintelligence, we don’t necessarily need to develop superintelligent AI ourselves. No, we only need to develop an AI that is marginally better at developing AI’s than we are.

When that happens, we have an AI that makes better AI’s that make better AI’s — all in the blink of a human eye.

This is known as recursive self-improvement, and when AI’s master this, superintelligence might be just around the proverbial corner.

Whole brain emulation

Another road to superintelligence is whole brain emulation (aka mind uploading). Put simply: scan a brain, upload it to a computer of some sort, and press play.

Of course, it’s not as simple as that. However, in contrast to AGI (for which we don’t really have a good idea of how to achieve it), whole brain emulation faces mostly technological challenges rather than theoretical ones.

First, we need to figure out the scan resolution we require, both in terms of space (to the detail of neurons? neurotransmitters? molecules?) and time (a snapshot? a prolonged scanning session? many sessions?).

Next, we’ll have to have interpretation software that is able to assemble and interpret all the scan data.

Then, we’ll need to ensure that we have a computational substrate that can house the upload as well as run it.

All these three points still need work. Emulating human brains is not in the cards yet. A virtual roundworm is being put together in the OpenWorm, though.

(Note that we’re talking specifically about intelligence, not necessarily consciousness, that is a whole other discussion.)

But, if we manage to emulate a human-equivalent brain, superintelligence could be the result. After all, such an upload would be able to speed up its processing power, run a massive amount of parallel processes,… It could perhaps think deeper, faster, and longer than a regular ‘unuploaded’ brain.

Brain Implants

A third way to achieve superintelligence is through ‘updating’ existing brains. We get to keep our mushy seats of intelligence, we just make them better, more efficient, and so on, by giving them some technological additions.

(Pixabay, geralt)

Sure, we have our smartphones for immediate internet access, but image an implant that gives you the same capability.

Instant recall, instant encyclopedic knowledge,…

Sounds great, but implants have a bit of a problem: the risk of infection/rejection after installation.

What good is an intelligence-improving implant if the operation results in a brain infection?

And let’s not forget the propensity for our bodies to develop scar tissue after injury. A scarred brain doesn’t exactly sound pleasant.

Also, linking the implant with the white and/or grey matter in our skulls is not yet a flawless process. There is great work being done with prosthetic control through brain computer interfaces, but fiddling with large swathes of our cortex is still very risky.

That doesn’t mean, however, that the option is not being pursued (Neuralink, anyone?). Maybe someday we’ll update our brain operating system like we’re now updating those of our laptops.

Biological enhancements

Healthy and adequate childhood nutrition, access to quality education, physical activity, and mental stimulation by peers and family all have a positive effect on IQ. (Even though there is still discussion about what IQ tests actually measure, let’s assume for now that they are at least a partial/crude measure of what we’re talking about in this post.)

A systemic improvement in all these things for everyone is a goal that should be pursued, regardless of the effects on IQ measurement.

However, are there other biological ways we can boost our intelligence?

Drugs called nootropics claim to improve mental functions such as memory, focus, and creativity. The evidence for both their positive effects and potential side-effects is not very robust right now, and their influence on intelligence is relatively minor. But that doesn’t mean that that can’t change. As we learn more about intelligence and its correlates in brain structure/function, it’s possible that we’ll be able to refine existing nootropics and develop new ones (remember the movie Limitless?).

Another biological path to superintelligence involves genetics. Arranged marriages with the aim of increased intelligence for the children is not exactly a pleasant or ethically sound idea, but there might be other ways to leverage our genes for intelligence.

One idea is embryo selection with IVF. The genetic basis of intelligence is very complex and likely comprises a lot of genes with small effects that only act beneficially in supportive socioeconomic conditions. Still, as we learn more about it, it might become possible to make a more accurate assessment of the effects of specific genes. In time, we might even be able to ‘tweak’ some of those genes.

Networks aka the hive mind

A final way to create a superintelligence is to link together existing intelligences. Two brains are better than one, and so on. An obvious way to achieve this is through brain implants such as the Neuralink mentioned earlier.

(Pixabay, geralt)

A less invasive method involves the wisdom of the crowd. Examples such as prediction markets tend to show that the aggregate response of a large group of people can be quite good in assessing and addressing vague and difficult problems.

The internet, of course, is a good place for this. Just think of Wikipedia as an example. The most extensive encyclopedia ever, thanks to the work of the crowd. Improvements in education and digital connectivity will only increase the efficiency and potential success of such endeavors.

A little bit of this, a little bit of that

These five ways to create a superintelligence — AI, whole brain emulation, brain implants, biological enhancement, and networks — are not mutually exclusive. Quite the opposite, if anything, it’s likely to be a confluence of several of them that might lead to a superintelligence.

Maybe brain implants help us develop AGI, which in turn figures out the genetic roots of intelligence and how to manipulate them. Maybe a networked open source effort will lead to the design of functional brain implants, which segues into scanning and recording techniques for whole brain emulations. Or pick any combination of pathways you like, there’s probably a scenario to accommodate them.

Whatever complicated multi-pronged path leads to a superintelligence, let’s try to make sure that it comes with supermorality as well.

Must read:

Nick Bostrom (2014). Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies. Oxford University Press.