NFL Week 16 Sunday Slate Picks & Plays!
By: Zack Nicol
Tags: NFL, Football, Gambling, Fun, Daily Fantasy Sports

1:00 PM ET

ATLANTA FALCONS vs KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-10.5) ; O/U 52.5

Model Z Projection: 30–21 KC

Straight Up Pick: Kansas City Chiefs

Spread Pick: KC -10.5⭐⭐⭐⭐

O/U Pick: Over 52.5⭐

Zack’s Plays:

- Sammy Watkins over 42.5 Rec. Yards (-110)

- Sammy Watkins to score / KC to win DOUBLE (+260)

- Kelce to score 2x (+410)

- Hurst to score (+370)

- KC -10.5 (-110)

- Calvin Ridley over 82.5 Rec. Yards (-110)

- Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 TDs (-110)

Top DFS Matchups: Patrick Mahomes ($8,500), Sammy Watkins ($5,000), Hayden Hurst ($3,400), Travis Kelce ($8,500)

Notable Inactives: ATL CB1 Darqueze Dennard, ATL WR1 Julio Jones, ATL C Alex Mack, KC LB Damien Wilson, KC RB1 Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC LB Anthony Hitchens

Notes: Let’s see if the Chiefs can beat this big spread. They’ve won 9 in a row and the Falcons are coming off a deflating loss to Brady and the Bucs at home. Atlanta not having CB1 Darqueze Dennard is really all I needed to see to know that Mahomes is going to have a day. Plus C Alex Mack (ATL’s #1 OL) and WR1 Julio Jones will be out too. I’ll take Kansas City giving points with confidence as they try and lock up the #1 seed.

1:00 PM ET

CLEVELAND BROWNS (-6.5) vs NEW YORK JETS ; O/U 43.5

Model Z Projection: 31–20 CLE

Straight Up Pick: Cleveland Browns

Spread Pick: CLE -6.5⭐⭐⭐⭐

O/U Pick: Over 43.5⭐

Zack’s Plays: (Player props are unavailable because of the inactives 😭)

- [2X BET] CLE -6.5 (-110)

Top DFS Matchups: Nick Chubb ($7,800), Kareem Hunt ($5,900), Austin Hooper ($3,500), Harrison Bryant ($2,900), David Njoku ($2,500)

Notable Inactives: CLE RG Wyatt Teller, CLE LT Jedrick Wills, CLE RG2 Chris Hubbard, CLE WR1 Jarvis Landry, CLE WR2 Rashard Higgins, CLE WR3 Khadarel Hodge, CLE WR4 Donovan Peoples-Jones, NYJ CB3 Javelin Guidry, NYJ TE2 Ryan Griffin, NYJ DT Quinnen Williams, NJY LB Harvey Langi

Notes: Well, I know it’s easy to get mad at the Jets for winning, but listen to that statement. None of these guys want to lose, none of these want to be a part of an 0–16 team including the coaches and the QB that will be replaced. As I’ve said throughout this year, that Jets team has some solid young pieces such as Becton, Williams, Mims and Maye so keep your head up Jets fans. The Browns, are suddenly now looking to take the division with the Steelers struggling. Should be an easy win here, but it’s going to be tougher than normal with this inactive list. 3 inactives on their offensive line to go along with their top 4 receivers. That’s crazy. Luckily for the Browns, NYJ DT Quinnen Williams will be inactive so the pass rush will be manageable even with backups blocking, then for the receiver problem, they have 3 great receiving Tight Ends to pick up the slack. I’ll take the Browns giving points with more confidence than you’d think with that list of inactives, but the number is low.

1:00 PM ET

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS vs PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-1.5) ; O/U 43

Model Z Projection: 24–22 PIT

Straight Up Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers

Spread Pick: PIT -1.5⭐⭐⭐⭐

O/U Pick: Under 44.5⭐⭐

Zack’s Plays:

- PIT ML (-132)

- PIT -6.5 Alternate Spread (+175)

- Rivers Under 253.5 Passing Yards (-110)

- PIT D/ST to score / PIT to win DOUBLE (+850)

- PIT D/ST to score 2x (+6000)

Top DFS Matchups: PIT D/ST ($3,500)

Notable Inactives: IND LT Anthony Castonzo, IND RT Braden Smith

Notes: In a toss up game at first glance, I just needed to see one inactive and that was IND LT Anthony Castonzo. Why has Rivers been better than expected? It’s because they have one of if not the best offensive lines in the game. They’ll now be without their starting Left and Right Tackles against one of the scariest pass rush in the game. Give me the Steelers outright with a ton of confidence.

The Steelers were the underdog when this spread opened so I was ready to “3X BET” the Steelers but it’s switched now :(.

1:00 PM ET

CHICAGO BEARS (-7.5) vs JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS ; O/U 46.5

Model Z Projection: 29–20 CHI

Straight Up Pick: Chicago Bears

Spread Pick: CHI -7.5⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

O/U Pick: Over 46.5⭐

Zack’s Plays:

- [2X BET] CHI -7.5 (-110)

- CHI -13.5 Alternate Spread (+140)

- Montgomery to score / CHI to win DOUBLE (+100)

- Montgomery over 83.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

- Allen Robinson to score / CHI to win DOUBLE (+150)

- Chark over 48.5 Rec. Yards (-110)

- Chark to score (+270)

- Trubisky over 233.5 Passing Yards (-110)

- Trubisky to score / CHI to win DOUBLE (+450)

- Kmet to score / CHI to win DOUBLE (+330)

- Kmet to score 2x (+2300)

- Top DFS Matchups: David Montgomery ($7,700), Allen Robinson ($7,700), Darnell Mooney ($4,000), Cole Kmet ($3,000), Michell Trubisky ($5,700)

Notable Inactives: JAX RB1 James Robinson, JAX CB1 Sidney Jones, CHI CB2 Jaylon Johnson, CHI CB3 Buster Skrine

Notes: Don’t blink, you might miss the Bears making the playoffs! That’s a crazy thing to say, but according to a few articles I’ve seen, they have a 24% chance to make it even if they lose to the Packers next week, assuming they win this one. And I do assume they win this one. The Jags will start Mike Glennon in this one and it sounds like the city of Jacksonville won’t even allow the Jags to think about winning this game which would lose Trevor Lawrence. Like I said with the Jets earlier, these young guys don’t want to lose so anything can happen, but I don’t see it. I’m also offended at the low spread here. Spread makers obviously have not been reading my articles about the Bears. Bears -7.5 easy.

1:00 PM ET

NEW YORK GIANTS vs BALTIMORE RAVENS (-9.5) ; O/U 44.5

Model Z Projection: 27–19 BAL

Straight Up Pick: Baltimore Ravens

Spread Pick: NYG +9.5⭐

O/U Pick: Under 44.5⭐

Zack’s Plays:

- Mark Andrews to score / BAL to win (+200)

Top DFS Matchups: Mark Andrews ($5,700)

Notable Inactives: NYG WR3* Golden Tate, BAL CB3 Jimmy Smith

Notes: This looks like a huge number if you haven’t watched the NFL in the last 3 or 4 weeks, but if you have, you know that the Giants have gotten blown out the last two weeks and the Ravens have put up 30+ in the last 3 games. Both teams are relatively healthy so I can’t use an injury to pick a side here, so I went to what I think will be the most important matchup which is BAL DL vs NYG OL. The Giants OL is actually pretty good and I think they can keep Daniel Jones upright this game even against a superior BAL DL. Definitely taking the Ravens straight up, but I’ll lean to the Giants with the big number because NYG CB Bradberry is back (6th CB on PFF) and I believe in Daniel Jones. Super low confidence though.

1:00 PM ET

CINCINATTI BENGALS vs HOUSTON TEXANS (-7) ; O/U 44.5

Model Z Projection: 25–24 CIN

Straight Up Pick: Houston Texans

Spread Pick: CIN +7⭐⭐⭐

O/U Pick: Over 44.5⭐⭐

Zack’s Plays:

- CIN +7 (-110)

- CIN ML (+270)

- Higgins to score (+240)

- Green to score (+220)

- Green to score / CIN to win (+650)

Top DFS Matchups: David Johnson ($6,100), Gio Bernard ($4,800), Tee Higgins ($4,800), AJ Green ($3,400)!, Drew Sample ($2,900), Deshaun Watson ($7,600)

Notable Inactives: HOU RT Tytus Howard, HOU RB2 Duke Johnson, HOU LB Whitney Mercilus, CIN LB Logan Wilson, CIN WR1 Tyler Boyd

Notes: This was the most shocking spread to our friend group this week (Matt, Kenny, Shane) as we thought this would be more like HOU -1.5 if not Cincy favored. We can say Deshaun Watson is better than the other quarterback most weeks and think they can compete, but that is just not enough. Just look at their 4–10 record. The Bengals however are in that bottom tier where the Texans could pull off a win here. Cincy comes off one of the double-digit upsets from the previous week with a win over the Steelers. People were shocked, and I was for the most part, but you have to realize that this Bengals team actually has a really good base and should be in good shape in the future when Burrow and Mixon come back. They obviously have Burrow and Mixon that come back, plus Boyd and Higgins at the receiver position which is solid, along with a solid defense powered by a very good secondary. They need a better offensive line obviously which is super important, but I think this team can compete in the near future with some good drafts. For this matchup though, it’s not going to be a fun one to watch, although a tough one to predict. Both teams have bad offensive lines and are pretty even so anything can happen, but since I see it as a toss up I’ll take the Bengals getting points, but take the Texans to win with super low confidence. Sorry, that write up was longer than intended!

4:05 PM ET

DENVER BRONCOS vs LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-3) ; O/U 48

Model Z Projection: 25–24 LAC

Straight Up Pick: Los Angeles Chargers

Spread Pick: LAC -3⭐

O/U Pick: Over 48⭐

Zack’s Plays:

- Noah Fant to score (+170)

- Justin Herbert over 258.5 Passing Yards (-110)

- LAC -3 (-110)

- Mike Williams to score (+155)

- Austin Ekeler over 97.5 Rush + Pass Yards (-110)

Top DFS Matchups: Melvin Gordon ($5,600), Austin Ekeler ($7,900), Justin Herbert ($7,400), Mike Williams ($4,500), Noah Fant ($4,800)

Notable Inactives: LAC TE Hunter Henry, LAC DE Joey Bosa, LAC LB Kyzir White, LAC LB Uchenna Nwosu, LAC WR1 Keenan Allen, DEN RB2 Phillip Lindsay

Notes: This is a tough one. At first glance, if you know me, I want to bet against the cornerback-less Broncos. But the Chargers inactives are significant as they will be without two of their starting linebackers, their defensive star Joey Bosa, WR1 Keenan Allen and their TE1 Hunter Henry. Sounds like they might be calling it in. I thought about it, but I can’t do it lol. I’m still going against the Broncos because they don’t have anyone to cover these receivers and the Chargers are kind of deep at the position. Tear ‘em up Herbert.

4:05 PM ET

CAROLINA PANTHERS vs WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM (-1) ; O/U 41.5

Model Z Projection: 24–24 TIE

Straight Up Pick: Washington Football Team

Spread Pick: WAS -1⭐

O/U Pick: Over 41.5⭐⭐

Zack’s Plays:

- Antonio Gibson to score (+100)

Top DFS Matchups: Antonio Gibson ($6,600)

Notable Inactives: CAR CB Troy Pride, CAR LT Russell Okung, CAR RB Christian McCaffrey, WAS WR1 Terry McLaurin

Notes: Another tough one here, and normally significant players like CAR LT Russell Okung and WAS WR1 Terry McLaurin will make you go the other way, but both teams have them out this game. Carolina is eliminated and Washington has the slim division lead so there is one strike against the Panthers. Strike two against the Panthers is that WAS RB Antonio Gibson looks like he will be back. Strike three is that they have no one to block Chase Young off the left side. Give me Washington in this one. I want to pick a CAR WR to go against this average vWR rating by Washington, but which do I pick? Anderson, Moore and Samuel are all about the same for snaps, Samuel is the Redzone guy (with McCaff out), then Anderson and Moore are about the same for targets. Might have to avoid it :(

4:25 PM ET

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-3) vs DALLAS COWBOYS ; O/U 50

Model Z Projection: 26–25 PHI

Straight Up Pick: Philadelphia Eagles

Spread Pick: PHI -3⭐⭐

O/U Pick: Over 50⭐

Zack’s Plays:

- Reagor over 33.5 Rec. Yards (-110)

- Reagor to score (+310)

- Reagor to score / PHI to WIN (+490)

- Schultz to score (+260)

- Hurts over 292.5 Passing + Rushing Yards (-110)

Top DFS Matchups: Jalen Reagor ($4,600), Zach Ertz ($3,100), Jalen Hurts ($7,000), Dalton Schultz ($3,200)

Notable Inactives: DAL DL Antwaun Woods, DAL LB Leighton Vander Esch, AL S Xavier Woods, PHI DE Derek Barnett, LB Duke Riley

Notes: I’m pretty excited about the Jalen Hurts experiment, so automatically I’m already leaning towards the Eagles in what is probably a toss up division game, but let’s look into it. There are a handful of inactives for this one, Dallas will hurt more from them though. The loss of Woods, Vander Esch and Woods on a defense that already struggles means it could be a long day for Dallas. I’m leaning hard towards Philly in this one now and should end all playoff hopes for what was a high-expectation season for the Cowboys. For Philly, I expect them to attack the Cowboys secondary who are the 5th worst vWR matchup in the Model Z. Who is the new guy in Philly though? Well, the Ertz and Goedert Tight End combo is the main focus of this offense, but for WR’s, it seems to be rookie Jalen Reagor out of TCU. I’m predicting a good game for him coming back to Texas.

4:25 PM ET

LOS ANGELES RAMS vs SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-1) ; O/U 47

Model Z Projection: 26–24 SEA

Straight Up Pick: Seattle Seahawks

Spread Pick: SEA -1⭐

O/U Pick: Under 47⭐

Zack’s Plays: A rare stay away for me

Top DFS Matchups: Jared Goff ($5,900)

Notable Inactives: SEA CB2 Tre Flowers, SEA LG Mike Iupati, LAR Cam Akers,

Notes: Probably the game of the week outside of the night game, as it’s tough to say who the top dog is in the tough NFC West. In their previous matchup in November in LA, the Rams took home the win. In this matchup, with the division on the line, I’m leaning the other way with the Seahawks. Cam Akers is out for the Rams which is significant but the Rams have Henderson and Brown who can handle the work load just fine, but I actually like this Seahawks defense more than the Rams. Hot take to most, not surprising for me to say it if you’ve been reading my articles. Both offenses are equally really good in my opinion, so I’ll give the Seahawks the slight edge with the defense and home field. Low confidence though in what should be a good game. Wilson needs to get out of this funk he’s in, and this isn’t the best game to get-right, but it’s Russell Wilson man.

8:20 PM ET

TENNESSEE TITANS vs GREEN BAY PACKERS (-3) ; O/U 53.5

Model Z Projection: 28–26 GB

Straight Up Pick: Green Bay Packers

Spread Pick: GB -3⭐

O/U Pick: Over 53.5⭐

Zack’s Plays:

- Aaron Rodgers over 7.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

- Robert Tonyan over 39.5 Rec. Yards (-110)

Top DFS Matchups: Aaron Rodgers , Aaron Jones, Davante Adams, Robert Tonyan

Notable Inactives: GB RB2 Jamaal Williams

Notes: Game of the Week alert! We have two playoff teams here: Titans fresh off winning two in a row, Packers have won four straight. Rodgers is still going for that MVP bid (+380, behind Mahomes) and a primetime game against a playoff team would be a great time to showcase your pitch. I’m leaning towards the Packers as the Model Z has the Packers at 5, Titans at 12 to go along with the Titans Defense not being as good as I thought they would be this year. So I was about to do the PFF comparison then saw this: The Packers have 4 players on offense ranked 1st in their positions (C Linsley, WR Adams, T Bakhtiari, QB Rodgers) plus CB1 Alexander is 2nd on the defensive side. That is elite. The Titans do have a bunch of top 20 guys on offense (9), but only two on defense. Give me the Packers in a good game.