Flying taxis: When will we see airborne Teslas?
By: Alexander Hufnagl
Tags: Drones, Aviation, Technology, Business

Urban area or countryside?

Urban areas with particularly high traffic volumes and poor infrastructure are the most likely candidates — Mexico City or Asian megacities are mentioned again and again. Also in Guangzhou, China, where the air taxi manufacturer Ehang has its roots, five hubs are soon to be built that will allow passengerless tests along these hubs. Around 30,000 logistics flights already take place there annually with drones. A hotel chain from Singapore has also ordered 25 of them for sightseeing flights at a test site.

Once again, also the Olympic Games could be the driver of innovation. There have already been many sustainable infrastructure projects around major sporting events. In the run-up to the 2024 Paris Summer Games, the Volocity — as the 18-rotor city plane of the self-proclaimed world market leader is called — could make its grand entrance. They are in talks with the mayor of Paris about test routes. According to Volocopter, a transfer from Charles de Gaulle airport to the city centre would be reduced from 90 minutes to just 20.

Just a toy for millionaires?

A pre-sale campaign by Volocopter shows that the world is not only ready for a flight in mini helicopters in 2025 or 2030: the first 1,000 tickets for test flights at 300 euros were sold in no time at all. Of course, these sums are still a long way from the industry’s almost mantra-like goal of offering a flight as cheaply as a taxi ride. So will air taxis be just a gadget for rich multi-millionaires anyway? Experts believe it certainly won’t be quite as cheap as a taxi ride. But it won’t be more expensive by the power of ten either. Somewhere in between, in the region of a very expensive taxi, the cost of a flight is likely to settle.

But the industry is trying to push this price down. It is assumed that production, but also operation and maintenance will be significantly cheaper than a helicopter, simply because of the low number of components and the high number of units produced. In this respect, the company is less oriented towards the aviation industry with its 80 to 100 aircraft per year.

Another way to lower the price would be to increase the number of passengers. Nevertheless, there will probably be no air buses. It will generally be demand-oriented transport; the aim is to fly around as little empty air as possible and not to let the air taxis get too big. The manufacturer Volocopter also takes the conventional load factor of a taxi as a model. This is somewhere between 1.2 and 1.4 people. As soon as the pilot is eliminated, the 2-passenger drone fits exactly into this range. Whether larger air taxis will be needed in the future remains to be seen.

Other uses

The human dream of flying is unbroken. It is therefore only logical that passenger transport dominates the news and investor demand. However, many air taxi manufacturers have long since diversified their portfolios and want to use drones increasingly for search-and-rescue operations after natural disasters, for the delivery of donor organs or the supply of mountain huts.

Autonomous drones can also be used in zero visibility without endangering the pilot. Experts even see logistics as “the first big market”; passenger transport will only develop downstream. There is more demand — and the safety standards are also more manageable. There is no doubt that synergies can be used to the benefit of the air-taxi market.