The Spurs are differently efficient
By: Vibhor Agarwal
Tags: Basketball, San Antonio Spurs, NBA, Sports, Sports Analytics

In the previous article, I explored the evolution of the NBA in the last few years. Today, I’ll analyze one of the greatest teams of the modern NBA, the San Antonio Spurs. This season, the Spurs rank 5th in offensive efficiency. Let us see their mantra behind achieving that efficiency.

Pop hates the 3

Prior to their game against the Chicago Bulls towards the end of November, their boss Gregg Popovich commented that he hated the 3-point shot. The numbers back that up as well. In the ongoing 2018–19 season, only 27.4% of the Spurs shot attempts have been three-point attempts. This puts them rock bottom in 30th place in the NBA. For context, the league average has been 35%. This is not a new trend either. Last season, the league average was 33.5% and the Spurs attempted only 28% 3-pointers.

Few restricted area shots

The single most efficient shot in the NBA currently is one taken from inside the restricted area. With 24.4% of their shots coming from the restricted area, the Spurs rank 30th in the frequency of these shot attempts as well. The Spurs have managed to be the fifth most efficient offense in the league even though they rank dead last in the frequency with which they take the two most efficient shots in the NBA.

Not many free throws either

In my previous article, we saw that free throws could compensate a portion of the decrease in the points expectation created because of teams taking fewer three pointers. The Spurs have gotten to the line 21.5 times on every 100 possessions. That puts them in 23rd position for the season. They were 17th with 22 free throws free throws last season.

Great shooting

Clearly, the Spurs are not focusing on taking efficient shots. They aren’t getting to the line either. Surely, they have to be great at shooting the shots that they take. Image 1 agrees.

Image 1: Spurs Field Goal Conversion Percentages against League average

The Spurs are an above average shooting team from each location on the court. They have been the best in the league from the paint (excluding restricted area shots) and from above the break three point attempts. On converting corner threes, they are second behind the Warriors. From the restricted area and from mid-range shot attempts, they are 8th and 6th respectively. That is too good. Even when it comes to converting from the free throw line, the Spurs are the best in the NBA at 82.3%. Surely, the Spurs must be doing something different which makes these theoretically bad shots really good.

Players playing to their strengths

In sports, we often say that teams should play to their strengths. Gregg Popovich has set his team up such that each of their players are playing to their strengths. Players are shooting almost exclusively from parts of the court where they are their own best selves. DeMar DeRozan and Le Marcus Aldridge have a 28% career success rate from 3 point ranges. Therefore, they have barely attempted 3-point shots. Only 5.6% and 2.3% of their respective shots have been three point range. Similarly, more than half of the shot attempts from Bryn Forbes, Patty Mills, Marco Belinelli and Davis Bertans have been three-pointers. From any range, the bulk of the shooting is being carried out by the best shooters. You can view this in my Tableau visualization here.

The teams right above and below the Spurs in terms of offensive efficiency are the Pelicans and the Clippers. Looking at the strengths of their players and where they take their shots from shows how unique this strategy from the Spurs is. On those teams, players who are below average shooters from any given range take a significant proportion of their shots from those ranges. Gregg Popovich has somehow managed to take the adage of ‘players playing to their strength’ to the extreme. Soon, the league may figure out what the Spurs are doing and follow suit. Alternatively, they may start to realize this and re-organize their defenses to block this strategy from the Spurs. Either way, the next few months will be pretty exciting.

Data used is from stats.nba.com as of 12/31/2018

Penned by Vibhor Agarwal — Graduate Student, Sports Management at Columbia University