Thursday Night Football Chiefs vs Chargers Prop Shopping
Tags: Sportsbetting, NFL

Thursday night football has a great matchup between the Chiefs and Chargers so here’s a look at some notable player prop markets for the game.

Thursday night football games can be a mixed bag, so we should really appreciate when we get a good one and at least on paper that’s the case tonight. In fact, given the magnitude of the game with the AFC West up for grabs, and the quality of teams and quarterbacks in this game, it’s a pretty easy argument that this is the best TNF game of the season. With that said, let’s do some prop shopping for some notable names in the Chiefs-Chargers game.

Patrick Mahomes

Passing Yards

DraftKings Sportsbook: Under 279.5 -115/Over 279.5 -115

FanDuel Sportsbook: Under 280.5 -113/Over 280.5 -113

Not a ton of difference in the market here. I’d say regardless of which side you’re on here to play it at FanDuel and pay a couple cents less. I’ve said it before, I don’t think passing props are ever going to come down to a one yard difference very often so I’d prefer to pay less juice to take the prop. I’m not one to bet against Patrick Mahomes, but objectively this looks like an under spot. The Chargers give up the fourth fewest pass yards in the league and if you take out the games against the Raiders, who for some reason refuse to play the two high safety defense everyone else has adopted against the Chiefs this year, Mahomes has gone over 279 passing yards just once since week two and that was against Washington who has one of the worst pass defenses in the league. That said, I’m just not one to bet against Mahomes.

Justin Herbert

Passing Yards

DraftKings Sportsbook: Under 288.5 -115/Over 288.5 -115

FanDuel Sportsbook: Under 284.5 -113/Over 284.5 -113

There is a pretty decent difference, as far as NFL markets go, in his props so if you want the over I’d bet it at FanDuel and if you want the under, bet it at DraftKings. Herbert has gone over 300 yards in four of his last six games and probably would’ve against the Giants last week if they needed him to. They were up 37–7 early in the fourth quarter and he finished with 275 yards so he’s been throwing the ball well. On the flip side, the Chiefs defense has become one of the biggest stories in football. They were lampooned for early performances, but have been significantly better lately. They haven’t given up more than 284 yards to an opposing quarterback since week five against Josh Allen. They haven’t played a murderer’s row of quarterbacks exactly, the famously avoided Aaron Rodgers when he had COVID, but they held Dak Prescott under 200 yards passing a couple of weeks ago. Austin Ekeler is expected to play, but not manage a full workload so it’s likely Herbert will have to shoulder more of the offense.

Tyreek Hill

Receptions

FanDuel Sportsbook: Under 6.5 -102/Over 6.5 -130

Travis Kelce

Receptions

BetMGM: Under 5.5 +105/Over 5.5–139

Just checking to see if anyone has a stomach for an under at almost even money on Hill or plus money on Kelce. In the first meeting between these teams Kelce had 11 targets and seven catches. Hill had seven targets and five catches. This kinda feels like the type of game where Kelce is going to be Mahomes’ safety net because the Chargers will want to keep everything in front of them as much as possible.

Keenan Allen

Receptions

FanDuel SportsBook: Under 6.5 -136/Over 6.5 +102

I like overs and plus money props and I think there’s a case to take this one. Allen was removed from the COVID list so he appears good to go tonight and he’s Herbert’s favorite target. He’s been targeted 25 more times than the next closest player in targets, Mike Williams. Ekeler is third in targets on the team and as I mentioned earlier, he’s not expected to carry a full workload tonight. The Chargers haven’t really used any other running backs in either a rushing or receiving capacity this year. Allen, Williams, Ekeler and Jared Cook are pretty far ahead of the other receiving targets so while it’s possible someone else will step up when Ekeler isn’t on the field, this far into the season it makes more sense to me that Herbert will rely on the targets he’s comfortable with.