Frisco Bowl Betting Preview
Tags: Sportsbetting, Collegefootball

A game between two good teams hampered by massive uncertainty with one roster

Frisco Bowl

UTSA (12–1) vs 24 San Diego State (11–2)

Tuesday, 7:30pm, ESPN

San Diego State -2.5/Total 49

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When the bowl games were announced, this one looked to be one of the better of the non-major bowl games, but opt outs and other things have taken some of the shine off it. UTSA is in the middle of a dream season. The Road Runners won their first conference championship since taking up football in 2011. Coach Jeff Traylor is building something nice there and signed a big extension this offseason. Brady Hoke is in his second year at San Diego State and guided the Aztecs to an 11–1 regular season. SDSU was seriously shorthanded in the Mountain West title game because of COVID and caught a beatdown from Utah State as a result, but it was a nice season nonetheless and it looks like the COVID luck may be flipping the other way here.

UTSA is going to need Frank Harris to play at a high level if they’re going to move the ball on a stout Aztec defense. Harris is 33rd in the country in pass efficiency this season. He threw for over 2,900 yards with 25 touchdowns and just five picks while completing two thirds of his passes. Zakhari Franklin, Joshua Cephus and De’Corian Clark get the lion’s share of the passes in the offense. All three have more than 45 catches, 650 yards and at least six touchdowns. UTSA is going to need to throw the ball well because their all-everything running back Sincere McCormick opted out of the bowl game. The only other running backs with more than seven carries this year are Brenden Brady and BJ Daniels who have combined for 83 carries and 393 yards.

To say San Diego State is offensively challenged at times is an understatement. The Aztecs are 118th in FBS in EPA per play on offense. They win games with the punt GAWD Matt Araiza and defense. Aztecs opponents have the fourth worst average starting field position in the country and the Aztecs are sixth in rush EPA per play defense and 11th in pass EPA per play on defense. San Diego State has used two quarterbacks this year and Lucas Johnson gets the start in Frisco. Johnson only threw the ball 187 times during the season and completed 61 percent of them for a shade over 1,091 yards, nine touchdowns and four interceptions. SDSU is going to want to run the ball. Greg Bell has been the bellcow with 220 carries and 999 yards, but the Aztecs have had five different players with at least 40 carries so they’ll mix things up in the run game.

Motivation matters a lot in bowl games and it’s hard to see San Diego State being pumped to play on a cold Tuesday night in Frisco after the season they had. On the flip side, UTSA was expecting a more exotic location than a five-and-a-half hour drive up I-35. That said, it’s been a really special year for the Road Runners and I’d be all over them in this game, but it was reported on Sunday that nine significant contributors missed the final bowl practice and because this isn’t the NFL where teams are required to release detailed injury reports, the status of those players, and who exactly it even is, doesn’t have to be revealed to the public. I still think I’d ride with the Road Runners if I had to make a pick, but I’m significantly less confident than I would be otherwise.