Tuesday Bowl Betting Preview
Tags: Sportsbetting, Collegefootball

A quick look at all five Tuesday bowl games with quite a few looks worth considering.

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Birmingham Bowl

20 Houston (11–2) vs Auburn (6–6)

Tuesday, Noon, ESPN

Auburn -2.5/Total 51.5

Tuesday’s bowl opener looks like an under spot on paper. Houston’s offense was good this year, but they’re playing against a defense more talented than any they faced this year other than Cincinnati. They had some early success against the Bearcats, but were held to just ten points after their first two drives. They don’t run the ball extremely well and Auburn is capable of getting after the quarterback. They’ll also be without cornerback Marcus Jones who is one of the best kick returners in college football. Auburn got a boost when star running back Tank Bigsby opted not to enter the transfer portal, but quarterback TJ Finley is wildly inconsistent. Finley failed to eclipse 200 passing yards in either of the final two games of the year against Alabama and South Carolina. The Houston defense has mostly been excellent this year and are the best team in FBS at getting off the field on third down giving up conversions just 25.6 percent of the time. The SEC is 0–2 against Group of Five teams in bowl games so far, but the Tigers should be up for this one playing so close to home. This has the makings of a really good game, albeit a low-scoring, slugfest kind of game.

First Responder Bowl

Air Force (9–3) vs Louisville (6–6)

Tuesday, 3:15pm, ESPN

Louisville -1.5/Total 55.5

It’s perhaps contrarian to think a 55.5 point total in a service academy game is a little bit low, but there could be some points scored in this game. Air Force leads the country in rushing yards by more than 60 yards per game than the second best team. They average 5.25 yards per carry and the Louisville defense can be run on giving up 4.5 yards per carry. Air Force has faced dual threat quarterbacks this year, but Malik Cunningham may be the best. The question is always which version of Cunningham are you going to get? If it’s the Cunningham who had 12 touchdowns against Syracuse and Duke, there are going to be a bunch of points scored. If it’s the Cunningham who struggled against Kentucky, Air Force will probably win the game. With a service academy team against a defense that gives up yards in chunks on the ground, Air Force may be able to play keep away, but Louisville is talented enough with Cunningham and a talented skill position group that they should be able to move the ball even if their possession is limited.

Liberty Bowl

Mississippi State (7–5) vs Texas Tech (6–6)

Tuesday, 6:45pm, ESPN

Miss State -9.5/Total 59.5

You will probably hear about a thousand times how this is Mike Leach against the program that unceremoniously fired him following the 2009 regular season for alleged mistreatment of one of his players. Will that matter here? Probably not, but it’s fun to think about. As far as the game is concerned, it’s hard to imagine Tech being able to stop the Mississippi State passing attack, even if the Bulldogs will be missing potential first round offensive tackle Charles Cross. The Mississippi State offense is third in the country in pass yards per game and tied for last in yards per completion. They short pass you to death and Texas Tech hasn’t been able to stop the pass this year. Texas Tech is 117th in pass efficiency defense, 122nd in pass EPA defense and can’t get off the field on third down giving up conversions on 44.4 percent of attempts which is tied for 115th in FBS. Texas Tech was 5–2 at one point, although the losses were ugly, and the Red Raiders lost four of their last five games to end the season. Donovan Smith is the third quarterback to play for Tech, but he’s shown some real flashes. He threw for 322 yards and three touchdowns in an upset win against Iowa State and played well in a loss to Baylor. He’ll be without his top receiving option Erik Ezunkanma who opted out. On paper, this looks like a mismatch, but I’m not a huge fan of laying this many points in a bowl game. The Mississippi State team total over is my favorite look, but if you take Texas Tech, you should bet the over. Mississippi State likes to play keep away on offense, but Tech shouldn’t be able to keep them out of the endzone.

Holiday Bowl

UCLA (8–4) vs NC State (9–3)

Tuesday, 8pm, FOX

NC State -1/Total 59.5

This has potential to be one of the most fun non New Year’s Six bowl games. UCLA had a few disappointing losses, but started and ended the season well. They have a really fun collection of skill position players led by Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Zach Charbonnet. The Bruins averaged 262 yards on the ground in their final three games, albeit against bad competition. They’ll get a much stiffer challenge from an NC State team that should be fired up to play in a marquee bowl game. NC State is fifth in the country in defensive stuff rate and give up a respectable 3.8 yards per carry. Devin Leary had one of the more underrated years for a quarterback in all of FBS this year completing 65.7 percent of his passes for 3,433 yards, 35 TD and just five interceptions. UCLA’s pass defense is bend, but don’t break. They allow the most passing yards per game in the Pac-12, but have allowed just 15 touchdown passes. If UCLA is motivated this game could be really fun, but it’s also easy to envision them not being super jazzed about a short trip to San Diego. I have a slight lean towards NC State here, but don’t feel strongly about it.

Guaranteed Rate Bowl

West Virginia (6–6) vs Minnesota (8–4)

Tuesday, 10:15pm, ESPN

Minnesota -4.5/Total 44.5

This number has come a point and a half from where it opened and it’s a little bit surprising. Minnesota is a confusing team to try and figure out. They had respectable losses to Ohio State and at Iowa. They also outlasted arch rival Wisconsin in the season finale. They also had a close win over Miami (OH), a bad loss to Illinois and maybe the most confusing loss of the year in all of college football to Bowling Green. West Virginia had a strange season. They hung around with Oklahoma and beat Iowa State. They were blown out by Baylor and Oklahoma State and had a bad loss to Texas Tech. They beat Texas and Kansas to get bowl eligible. West Virginia is middle of the road in all the EPA categories and they’re playing without arguably their best offensive player, running back Leddie Brown who opted out to get ready for the draft. WVU next leading rusher had just 59 carries this year so it seems like Jarret Doege is going to have shoulder most of the offensive load. Minnesota doesn’t do a lot well offensively, but they’ve been pretty good defensively most of the year and if WVU is one dimensional, that helps Minnesota even more. As long as Tanner Morgan doesn’t give the ball away, which was a problem at times, it’s hard to imagine West Virginia sustaining drives.