The End of Ishin no Kai’s Dream
By: Javier Delgado Chacon
Tags: Osakapolitics, Japanpolitics, Japan, Osaka

NO CAMP

The lower turnout in 2020 also produced a decrease in the votes receievd by the NO camp, supported by the local LDP, and the Opposition parties the JCP & the CDPJ.

They received over 692.996 votes, 12.589 votes less than 2015 when the NO side that included Komieot won 705.585 votes that were enough to make them victorious.

2015 Referendum: 705,585 2020 Referendum: 692,996 Change: -12.589

A first look at the map lets us know about the wide disparity os swings through the city. It jumps to the eye, especially, how large was both the increases and decreases of NO votes. These changes were in reverse to what we found in the YES camp but of different proportions.

Change of total raw votes for the NO camp

In an environment of low(er) turnout, the advantage the NO side managed to achieve is that in total they were able to offset their huge loss of vote in their former strongholds with a raw increase in districts that had not been, at all, favorable to them in 2015 (the same ones where the total vote cast increased, over a larger population).

Their increase in raw votes was particularly strong in districts where the YES campaign had been strong back in 2015:

Kita-Ku +4688

Nishi-Ku +3866

Chuo-Ku +3157

Fukushima-Ku +1740

However, their decrease in votes in some of the best districts they had in 2015 was a point that confounded me on election night. In those places, the total turnout plummeted too:

Hirano-Ku -4652

Suminoe-Ku -4042

Ikuno-Ku: -3105

In the end, these losses, however, were not big enough to allow the YES to overcome them.

For weeks poll had shown a tight race in which the YES campaign led, but always by narrow margins, and within the margin of error. As I said on my Twitter @nihonpolitics, it was likely that the 10%-15% of undecided leaned towards the NO, as their nature did not predispose them towards supporting such a radical idea that would have abolished the City of Osaka itself. In the end, Osaka Ishin no Kai failed once again in trying to pass the plan, even with the help of Komeito.

Consequences of the rejection of the Osaka Metropolis Plan Referendum

Although a local matter in Osaka, it is no mistake that the event of the referendum could have big national repercussions for all the different parties in Japan. I ould like to summarize some ideas:

Ishin no Kai [維新の会」: Ishin no Kai, the main proponent of the Osaka Metropolis Plan, and the party that governs both the city of Osaka and Osaka Prefecture was the main loser of the referendum. The citizens of Osaka rejected last month for a second time, after 2015, their idea of abolishing the city of Osaka and turning it into four or five special districts at the image of Tokyo.

Five years later after the first, also failed, referendum, they repeated the same mistakes:

Ishin no Kai polarized to the extreme the question of the “Osaka Metropolis Plan”. It was their plan, their foundational dream (as I explained in a previous post) and for better, or worse, they made people identify support for their party with support for the plan, which limited from the beginning the electoral ceiling of the plan.

It was their plan, their foundational dream (as I explained in a previous post) and for better, or worse, they made people identify support for their party with support for the plan, which The leaders of Ishin no Kai (Mayor Matsui Ichiro and Governor Yoshimura Hirofumi) failed once again to adequately explain the benefits of the Osaka Metropolis Plan . As polls showed, a large majority of the citizens of Osaka (above 70%) acknowledged that they did not fully understand what the plan was about or the benefits it would supposedly bring them. It was an inexcusable mistake that doomed the plan from the start. If the benefits existed, any, concerns about a possible decrease in financing for schools and social services overrode the idea of the possible long-term savings for public finance, after eliminating duplicities that the proponents argued.

. As polls showed, a large majority of the citizens of Osaka (above 70%) acknowledged that they did not fully understand what the plan was about or the benefits it would supposedly bring them. It was an inexcusable mistake that doomed the plan from the start. If the benefits existed, any, concerns about a possible decrease in financing for schools and social services overrode the idea of the possible long-term savings for public finance, after eliminating duplicities that the proponents argued. The overwhelming control of Osaka politics by Ishin no Kai was countered by a polarized environment: For over a decade, Ishin no Kai has fully controlled the government of Osaka city and Prefecture. Although they have needed allies to govern (I will come back to them later), their electoral wins have been so commanding at the local, prefectural and national level that it is likely that felt invincible, immune to criticism. However, the people of Osaka had other plans. In a face-to-face match, where political parties disappeared, it failed for the second time in five years to convince +50% of the citizens of Osaka City about their plan. It showed that Ishin no Kai has a ceiling that does not reach 50% and includes supporters from other parties.

Ishin no Kai is the dominant party of Osaka, with less than 40% of the vote (at least in national elections).

Press conference after the defeat: Gov. Hirofumi (left) and Mayor Ichiro (right). Source: https://www.jiji.com/jc/article?k=2020110200029&g=pol

The first victim of the defeat was Osaka Mayor Matsui Ichiro, the leader 「代表」of the party, who decided shortly after the defeat that he will serve the remainder of his term as Mayor and then resign.

Matsui Ichiro had become the leader of the party in 2015 after the exit of the founder Hashimoto Toru, who resigned after the first referendum defeat. It certainly looks like Matsui Icho is following his path. He will retire once his term as Mayor ends in 2022.

On the 21st of November, in a special party meeting, the young Governor of Osaka Yoshimura Hirofumi was elected the new leader of the party by 232 votes against 11 won by Katayama Toranosuke「片山虎之助」, a veteran party member of the House of Councillors.

Komeito「公明党」: The second big loser of the referendum, very closely behind Ishin no Kai, was Komeito, the Buddhist-based party.

Komeito, which had opposed the Metropolis Plan in 2015, this time around caved to the threats of Ishin no Kai and changed his position. To understand Komeito’s surprising about-face, we have to understand their politically vulnerable situation in Osaka (I will succinctly sum it up. You can see a larger explanation in my preview article).

Komeito currently holds four single-member districts from Osaka Prefecture in the House of Representatives (Diet), but they fear a lot a possible challenge by Ishin no Kai candidates in those SMDs (single-member districts) which would possibly threaten a party stronghold like Osaka for Komeito. Although the party has avoided these challenges before, it has always been there hovering over their faces like the sword of Damocles and it will continue there once the referendum has contributed to a certain breakdown of the bilateral Komeito-Ishin ties.

Komeito astonishingly failed to convince its own supporters to vote YES on the referendum: Polls before the referendum and exit polls continuously showed that not more than a third (or 40%) of the supporters of the party favored the Metropolis Plan despite the enthusiastic support of its leadership. Yamaguchi Natsuo, the leader of Komeito and member of the Houe of Councillors from Tokyo, even visited Osaka in the last weeks to campaign alongside the leaders of Ishin no Kai. It was not enough.

Press conference after the defeat: Satou Shigeki (right) & Toki Yasuo (far right) . Source: https://webronza.asahi.com/politics/articles/2020110200008.html

It remains to be seen the effects of the defeat in the local Komeito Chapter: Although the Komeito supporters were split, its local leadership embodied in Sato Shigeki, who represents Osaka’s 3rd district in the Diet and Toki Yasuo, Komeito’s Secretary-General in Osaka Prefecture, were personally invested in the campaign and they were defeated. Soka Gakkai, the Buddhist sect behind the party, was torn as well and its indecisiveness likely contributed to the final defeat.

LDP [自民党」: In order to do an assessment of the results of the referendum for the LDP we should distinguish in the analysis between the local LDP chapter in Osaka and the national LDP led by newly elected Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga. After withstanding a lot of pressure, and internal division, the LDP chapter in Osaka, in the end, decided to come out against the Osaka Metropolis Plan, as it had happened in 2015. When the exit polls came out, over half of the LDP supporters went along with its local leadership and opposed the plan.

After several head-to-head matches losses against Ishin no Kai in local elections like Governor and Mayor race, it was a unique opportunity for the local LDP to regain a foothold in the city, showing a contrast with Ishin no Kai, the party that has become dominant for more than a decade in the city of Osaka and beyond.

After a string of defeats, the LDP finally had a victory over its direct competitor for the control of the city (and prefectural) politics: In the defeat of the plan, it was instrumental the strength of the LDP chapter of the city of Osaka, which was overwhelmingly against the plan form the beginning. In internal deliberation, they managed to turn the whole Osaka LDP group against the plan even though the LDP members at the prefectural level were much more divided and supportive of the Osaka Metropolis Plan.

Kitano Takeo, Secretary-General of the LDP in the City of Osaka. Source: https://www.sankei.com/politics/photos/201102/plt2011020001-p1.html

Kitana Taeko「北野 妙子」, the leader fo the LDP in Osaka City, embodies the core demographic opposed to the Osaka Metropolis Plan: A women in her 60s was according to the polls the worst demographic for Ishin no Kai’s plan: women and of older age.

An experienced politician, Kitana Taeko became the main face of the LDP’s opposition to the plan. She is a current 4-term representative in the city council from the second most-supportive district of the plan, Yodogawa-Ku (55.1% YES). Keep an eye on her for future office.

Prime Minister Suga was not a winner in the referendum: Prime Minister Suga is a close ally of Ishin no Kai and its former leader Matsui Ichor, as I explained in my previous post. That explains why he was never open and transparent about his position or the party’s at the national level regarding the referendum. He was moot the whole time calling for respecting the peoples’ will and a 議論 around the issue, the same position held by the LDP Secretary-General Nikai Toshihiro. The final rejection of the plan was a defeat for his local Ishin no Kai allies, which might become essential in the future for the constitutional reform.

Japanese Opposition: Japanese Communist Party 「共産党」and Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan「立憲民主党」: Arguably, the Japanese opposition formed by the JCP and the CDPJ, could be considered a winner after the defeat of the Osaka Metropolis Plan in the referendum.

In recent years, even more than the LDP, both parties have become antagonists to Ishin no Kai and its former leader Osaka Mayor Matsui Ichiro, who does not lose time to quickly troll them on Twitter every chance he gets. This was their revenge and it worked out fine.

The Opposition has a problem in Osaka Prefecture though: Osaka is one of their weakest places in the whole country. The disintegration of the old Democratic Party has not been repaired yet, and the division with the old Japanese CommunistParty has precluded further cooperation for some time, politicians and voters still hold old grudges from bygone times. However, this referendum provided a fantastic opportunity for the Japanese Opposition to jump-start its cooperation for future elections:

The referendum coincided with the reorganization of the CDPJ in its new form, devoid of the most conservative elements that decided to continue with Tamaki Yuichi in a much smaller DPFP a new political party of two dozen members: The CDPJ was deeply involved in the campaign against the plan. Its leader Edano Yukio went down to Osaka to campaign and rallied his supporters towards an overwhelmingly (according to exit polls) rejection by the CDPJ supporters of the Osaka Metropolis Plan. Exercises like this work well to build local organizations, which the party needs right now to grow beyond the single digits in Osaka.

The CDPJ was deeply involved in the campaign against the plan. Its leader Edano Yukio went down to Osaka to campaign and rallied his supporters towards an overwhelmingly (according to exit polls) rejection by the CDPJ supporters of the Osaka Metropolis Plan. Exercises like this work well to build local organizations, which the party needs right now to grow beyond the single digits in Osaka. Women, the backbone of the CDPJ and the JCP were at the forefront of the opposition: Out of the seven members the CDPJ has from Osaka prefecture (two in Single-member districts and five in proportional representation list) two of them are women and they were at the front of the campaign crisscrossing Osaka (see photo below).

1) The leader of the CDPJ Osaka Prefecture chapter is Tsujimoto Kiyomi (right in the picture) who has been representing Osaka’s 10th district in the Lower House since 1996.

2) Otsuji Kanako (left) became part of the Lower House in 2017 representing Osaka’s 2nd district through proportional representation and has already become a recognizable face within the party, as a cadre in a growing cohort of young progressive women where Tsujimoto Kiyomi also belongs.

Members of the CDPJ (Otsuji Kanako, left & Tsujimoto Kiyomi, right) campaign against the plan in Osaka. Source: https://mainichi.jp/graphs/20201012/hpj/00m/040/002000g/6

The Japanese Communist Party, for its part, is the strongest Opposition party in Osaka above the CDPJ. It enjoys a strong implementation in the city and the prefecture with experienced grassroots that are essential, along with citizen movements, to rally supporters to the polls. They were probably key in moving apathetic or undecided voters towards voting NO in last month’s referendum.

Yamanaka Tomoko, member of the Osaka City Council from the Japanese Communist Party. Source: http://yamanaka-tomoko.wajcp.net/category/%E3%83%96%E3%83%AD%E3%82%B0/page/2

The JCP’s campaign was also led by a woman: Yamanaka Tomoko「山中智子」a six-term member of the Osaka City Council from Joto-Ku.

Women are a central part of the Japanese Communist Party, in its leadership and among its supporters, and they showed up to reject the Osaka Metropolis Plan.