Pity for Bernie Sanders - How Joe Biden overtook in the 2020 Democratic nomination
By: Xiaodong Fang
Tags: Democratic Party, Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Presidential Campaign, Election 2020

Photo by Gayatri Malhotra on Unsplash

As Joe Biden captured easy victories (more preciously, leads) in all three states that voted on Super Tuesday III (March 17, 2020), critics enhanced their claims for Sanders to quit. However, it might be too hasty to discuss a drop for Sanders at this point. There are reasons to believe that the Vermont “Democratic Socialist” should remain in the nominating race.

Photo obtained from CNN

Fast Rebound

Biden’s easy sweeping came with a favorable electoral and social environment for the former Vice President. Election-wise, the first look of Biden’s leading Florida with near 62% of the share might be significant. But considering the fact that moderate Hillary Clinton in 2016 beaten Sanders in the Florida Primary with 64% of the share, Biden’s “victory” in Florida shouldn’t be surprising at all.

In Arizona, Biden only took 43.6% of the share, less than Clinton’s 56% in 2016. Illinois, the home state of Barack Obama, was the only State on Tuesday where Biden outperformed Clinton in 2016. No doubt that their personal relationship helped Biden take the advantage of the former President’s electoral base.

What coincident with the mid-March primaries was the outbreak of Coronavirus in the U.S. One thing that hurt Sanders was that the nationwide closure amid coronavirus prevented many younger Democrats, the base of Sanders supporters, from turning out to vote.

Related: Iowa Meltdown — Shall we replace the outdated caucuses with primaries?

Mail-in voting change the game

Another factor disfavored Sanders was that the early and mail-in voting had recorded a historical high in the three States, and Biden had already banked up significant support before the primary. In Arizona, half of the likely primary voters already cast their ballots before the Super Tuesday and a large chunk of them prefer Biden, by 50% to Sanders’s 27%, according to a Monmouth University’s survey. In-person early voting doubled from 2016 to 2020 in Ohio and Chicago broke World War II-era record for vote-by-mail applications.

So, is the nominating race coming to an end? Not yet. Supposed the 2020 nominating process from Mid-March to early-April follows the similar patterns in 2016 below, Sanders will fire back in late March and early-April.

Source: Wikipedia

However, the problem of Sanders this year is that several States in this period have canceled or postponed their primaries because of the virus, which makes it hard for Sanders to catch up on the mid-March losses in a short time. That is to say, Biden will keep enjoying a favorable media environment in terms of horse-racing.

Related: Three reasons Bernie Sanders shouldn’t quit so early in the nominating race

What to do next?

We can expect massive media reports and opinion pieces arguing that Sander should drop out of the race in the coming days. But Sanders’ campaign will definitely assess the costs and benefits for his candidacy, the Democratic Party, and the whole country before any move. And remember, there are other considerations beyond the nomination.