Complexities Of Cyclone Forecasting In India
By: Vishnu Aravindhan
Tags: Forecasting, Environment, Climate Change, Hurricane, Science

There are four tools and options that India currently looks at,

1. Doppler Weather Radar, 2. Collaboration with other countries, 3. Satellites 4. Ocean Buoys

1. Doppler Weather Radar

These are the radars which help in identification of a cyclone in a particular region, let’s say, for example, we have the Conventional Radar, these radars were also able to identify and predict the cyclone as well. But when it comes to the Doppler Weather Radar, they give detailed information about the storm’s internal wind flow. And they also give us the structure as well. That was not present under the conventional system.

So the advantage with the Doppler Weather Radar, it gives a clear picture and structure about the cyclone, which is originating in the sea ocean. Currently, India has about 27 Doppler Weather Radars, that which is present throughout the country. So the first important factor is that the Doppler Weather Radar is much beyond and much better when it comes to the Conventional Radar.

When it comes to the Doppler Weather Radar, they are also in an advantageous position as well. They also give us all the data, at least five to six days before. So if they are giving us data much prior to actual formation, we would be in a better position to save lives and property as well. How?

Let me give you an example. In the present scenario where there was Cyclone Nivar, what exactly happened? The Indian Meteorological Department gave advanced warnings to the state government. So the state government of Tamil Nadu, state government of Andhra Pradesh, and to a limited extent, states like Karnataka were able to take some of the measures. They were able to push people from the low-Lying areas into an area where they were safer places.

So this particular idea of giving the information five days prior are in fact, much earlier will help the state government operating in that particular state to take all precautions to save the people as well as property. So the severity of the weather systems can be quantitatively estimated more accurately, that ever before when it comes to the Doppler Weather Radars. So the Doppler Weather Radars provides all the advance information, provides the lead time, helps in saving lives as well as property.

2. Collaboration

India might have Satellites. India might also have advanced technological tools as well. But sometimes all this would not be required. Why? Because something else might be originating in let’s say Pacific Ocean or something else is brewing in the Atlantic Ocean.

There are countries in and around them, so they also gather information. They also have their own satellites as well. They might also have their own space stations as well. So these countries will have a close cooperation and nexus with India. So what exactly happens here? We have the United States of America and Japan, which has entered into some collaborative rules and regulations and agreements with India. We have the Indian Space Research Organization or let’s say for example, their own space research organization, or we have the Indian Meteorological Department. Likewise, they have the Japan Metallurgical Agency. So they exchanged the data so that they are able to tabulate and get the right information about the origination and formation of cyclone like conditions.

So what does this collaboration exactly mean?

This is where one country will start exchanging data with another country so that they can prevent any disastrous consequences that might result from that cyclone. So India, in the present scenario, has entered into a collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency, the U.S. National Hurricane Center and the U.S. Central Pacific Hurricane Center. So that all the data can be exchanged and we would be able to protect our people as well as our property.

3. Satellites

There are a number of meteorological satellites which help in improving identification and detection as well. Let’s take the example of SCATSAT.

So what does this SCATSAT mean?

This is one of the satellites which provides all the weather forecasting, cyclone prediction and also tracking different services in India when it comes to the weather related issues.

4. Ocean Buoys

This particular Ocean Buoy will have sensors. This might be with respect to air or it might be with respect to the water. So what will it do? It’ll calculate all the relevant information with respect to the weather related parameters. It will identify the wave height, the wind speed and the direction, air and water temperature and also barometric pressure as well. So once all these sensors are able to identify it. They’re able to capture the data. They would be able to forecast the same and cyclone warnings should be taken up and similar precautionary measures will be taken up by the government. So they send out all the real time data that is required for the calculation. And ultimately, this will help in detection of the loss of lives as well as property.

So these are a number of tools that India uses to identify whether there is an origin of a cyclone and how and where it will make a landfall and we would be in a position to cut down on the lives as well as property.

Conclusion

Why does India Need This?

When it comes to India, we have this as a coastal belt. There is Arabian Sea here. We also have Bay of Bengal here. What is more trickier? Is it the Bay of Bengal or the Arabian Sea? It is Arabian Sea which is trickier. Why? Because sometimes when you realize that cyclones in Arabian Sea can get trickier because they may recur and hit India as well. That might not happen in the Bay of Bengal and at the same time, when you look at the radars that are present, most of the radars are present on the eastern coast that is along the Bay of Bengal. So we are in a much better position to identify where these cyclones originate, where they might make a landfall, and we would be in a better position to identify and make sure that we take all types of precautionary measures. Why? One is because they do not recurve and the second is we have more radars on the eastern coast and as a result, we would be in a much better position when it comes to cyclones originating in Bay of Bengal.