Who Can Beat Trump?
By: Jp Kobel
Tags: 2020 Presidential Race, Trump, Democratic Party, Republican Party, Politics

The Republicans can’t win the 2020 election, but the Democrats can lose it. Any of the major Democratic candidates can win against Trump.

Photo by Pau Casals on Unsplash

To determine who is most likely to beat Trump, it’s important to look to history and what has happened recently within our peer nations’ elections.

The 1972 Presidential Election

In 1972, there were nine Democrats that had more than 1% of the popular vote in the primaries. Hubert Humphrey had the most votes in the primaries/caucuses with 25.77% of the vote. George McGovern was in second place with 25.34% of the popular vote. Still, McGovern had the most delegates and was the eventual nominee.

McGovern was considered to be from the ultra-liberal wing of the party. He was somewhere to the left of Bernie Sanders and Andrew Yang. McGovern supported “guaranteed minimum income” and a single-payer healthcare system. In other words, “Universal Basic Income” and “Medicare for All.” He supported guaranteed jobs for everyone, similar to AOC’s Green New Deal.

Nixon was already considered a shifty person. The Watergate Break-In was on June 17, 1972. The news broke immediately. “Deep Throat” started talking to Bob Woodward only three days later on June 20, 1972. This stuff was out there in the news, but few people listened.

Nixon defeated McGovern by the largest margin in American history until that date. Reagan would later hand Mondale a worse loss in 1984. Undoubtedly, McGovern would fare far better today. But, would he win? There is a much larger progressive base today than there was in 1972, but there is also a much larger extreme right-wing base. Even Nixon supported a “guaranteed minimum income” in the 1970s. In 1972, Republicans weren’t the extremists they are today. Today’s Republicans would have kicked Reagan and George H. W. Bush out of their party.

In America today, I would be considered an ultra-liberal. However, if I were placed in one of the world’s other advanced economies I would be considered a moderate at best and more likely, a conservative. The same could be said for such “liberals” as Elizabeth Warren. America is an outlier on the political and economic spectrum. Our system is no longer working for the American people and it hasn’t worked well in over thirty years. Sure, you can cherry-pick a few outdated economic indicators and say we have the greatest economy in the world. On closer look, your argument in favor of our economy will fail every time.

The lesson of 1972 is, that we are taking a risk by nominating the most liberal/progressive candidate for President. Bernie Sanders fits this description in 2020, however, he was no further to the left than McGovern. Yes, I am concerned. I am more concerned because I don’t know if Bernie has the patience to hand Trump a whipping. We may get to find out. I would be happy with a President Sanders — if he can get elected. He is one of my top three choices. I will deal more with “how to beat Trump” in my next story. It’s surprisingly easy.

Recent Elections in Other Countries

The lesson of recent elections in other nations comes out of the U.K. Boris Johnson and the Tories couldn’t get anything through Parliament. Yet, in the face of the Socialist Jeremy Corbyn, Johnson won in a landslide. Now, there is more to the story here. Corbyn and the Labor Party suffered due to allegations of anti-Semitism. Corbyn wasn’t a very charismatic candidate either. It’s also worth noting that “Socialists” in the U.K. are far to the left of Bernie. For that matter, they are to the left of Denmark! Lucky for us, we don’t have to worry about anti-semitism with Mr. Sanders. He is Jewish. He is also very charismatic. But can he win? Yes.

Any of These Candidates Can Whip Trump

Bernie, Biden, Buttigieg, Warren, Klobuchar, Bloomberg, or Steyer are all far more intelligent than Trump. They all have the capability of beating him. They all have baggage. Except for Elizabeth Warren, there is a weakness for each. Sure there are some silly scandals that the far-right tries to exploit about Warren, but the American people see through such foolishness now. My ranking of the candidates that are most likely to beat Trump is in the following order:

1. Bloomberg

2. Biden

3. Steyer

4. Klobuchar

5. Warren, Bernie, and Buttigieg

Now, as the reader jumps up and says “he’s crazy,” let me explain. I have thought the matter through. To see where each of these candidates stands on the issues, this tool from Politico is the best I have found.

Mike Bloomberg

Bloomberg has the best chance of winning for a few reasons. He has crossover appeal. He can easily grab the majority of the independents and all the “never-Trump” Republicans from Trump. Bloomberg would win in a landslide. On top of that, Bloomberg could buy every second of air time on every network from now until the election and it would barely dent his bank account. Even if he were to spend 90% of his fortune, he would still be far wealthier than the most charitable estimates of Trump’s net worth. See my story, The Truth About Trump’s Financial Success for more on Trump’s net worth. He is currently spending $37.00 per second on advertising. He could increase this amount to over $600.00 per second from now until election day and he wouldn’t notice the impact on his wealth. He won’t even have to spend that much to get himself elected and provide the financial push for the Democrats to win the Senate.

His vast wealth isn’t Bloomberg’s greatest strength. It’s his data operation. The Russians, Chinese, Saudis and others could all try to help Trump through social media misinformation campaigns. They would be severely beaten by Bloomberg. Bloomberg made his fortune in the data business. The price for a special Bloomberg terminal is $24,000 per year as of 2018. People pay this much because Bloomberg has the best data and he has the best data because he has the best people. A lot of these people are now helping his campaign’s data operations.

Now, am I a Bloomberg supporter? No, he is near the bottom of my list, but I would certainly do everything I can for him if he is the party’s nominee. The threat Trump poses to our nation is greater than the threats we fought in World War II. He must not only be defeated, but he must also be destroyed.

There is one very good thing about Trump: he isn’t intelligent. If Bloomberg were to ignore the norms of our nation like Trump, we would be in much greater danger. Bloomberg has the brain to pull off a government takeover in a way that Trump could only do in Trump’s own dreams. For this reason, if Bloomberg is elected, it’s imperative that the Democrats show that they are not cowards like the Republicans. The Democrats in the House and Senate will have to stand up to Bloomberg and hold him accountable. Bloomberg’s best running mate would be Deval Patrick.

Joe Biden

Biden doesn’t have the Bloomberg operation, but he is a very likable person. Bloomberg would support him should he be the nominee. Since he is a moderate, Biden would have crossover appeal. Since Biden is the candidate the Republicans have most prepared for and due to Biden’s history of gaffes, Biden is the candidate that is most likely to make a fatal mistake. The Hunter Biden / Burisma scandal will have no effect on Biden. It might actually help him. Biden’s best running mate would be Kamala Harris or Stacey Abrams.

Tom Steyer

Steyer has been unfairly overlooked. He has been a grassroots organizer for a long time. He was the first to confront Trump and paid for air time for years to try to get Trump impeached. He seems like a good guy. It sickens me to hear candidates criticized just because they became a billionaire. I have no problem with a billionaire that earned their money in an honest way and is giving their wealth back to the people of our nation. Steyer meets this qualification. The litmus test for Steyer is the same as it should be for any other Democrat: the nominee must support meaningful campaign finance reform — including a constitutional amendment to overturn Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission, 558 U.S. 310 (2010). Steyer’s best running mate would be Kamala Harris.

Amy Klobuchar

Klobuchar is a likable candidate. She was one of my favorites at the beginning. Then the scandal involving the treatment of her staffers came out. I am concerned about her management capabilities. We already have a President that has no idea how to manage people. We don’t need another. This is the worst scandal for any Democratic candidate as far as I am concerned. Yes, Bloomberg and the others have some racial issues. These issues will work themselves out. No Democrat can be elected without the African-American vote. Whoever is elected will owe their election to the African-American population. They will change their ways and strongly support what matters to most African-Americans. The reason Klobuchar’s scandal is worse is that she may not be able to change. She just may not have the “management skills” necessary for the job. The aforementioned considered I would support Klobuchar in a heartbeat in a race against Trump. Since she is somewhat moderate and has a history of working with Republicans, she is an easy winner. Klobuchar’s best running mate would be Cory Booker.

Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders

Warren and Sanders (my favorites) aren’t as likely to win as the candidates above. The reason is that the extreme right-wing will do everything they can to scare the American people into believing that America will turn into Venezuela if either of these people is the Democratic nominee. Unfortunately, too many Americans will fall for this foolishness. Warren’s best running mate would be Cory Booker or Julian Castro. Bernie’s best running mate would be Andrew Gillum or Stacy Abrams, though I hesitate to even make a guess about who Bernie will pick.

Pete Buttigieg

Buttigieg is a moderate candidate. He doesn’t have the “ultra-liberal” label of Warren and Sanders. Still, as a married gay man, he has an uphill climb. Can he beat Trump? Hell yeah! But I fear we will see a Tom Bradley Effect in the polling. People will say they support Mayor Pete but will vote the other way when they cast their votes. Call me terrible for pointing this fact out, but it’s real. Pundits have been talking about if a woman can beat Trump for months, yet, I haven’t heard anyone on television mention this issue. In another year, it wouldn’t be worth mentioning. However, the fear of four more years of Trump has me asking this question. Buttigieg’s best running mate would be Kamala Harris.

Conclusion

Any of these people can easily beat Trump, but they can also easily make a huge mistake and lose. The Democratic candidate needs to run an unconventional campaign because they are running against an idiot. To preview my next story, I will just say, they need to “laugh at him.” They need to fight Trump like Sugar Ray Leonard fought Roberto Duran in the 1980 “No Mas” fight. Do this, and the Democrats will have the election won long before election day.