Cincinnati-Alabama Betting Preview
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Cincinnati broke through the glass ceiling to make the playoff, can they topple mighty Alabama?

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Cotton Bowl Classic — College Football Playoff Semifinal

4 Cincinnati vs 1 Alabama

Friday, 3:30pm, ESPN

Alabama -13.5/Total 58

The College Football Playoff kicks off with a true David vs Goliath game. Despite what star linebacker Will Anderson says, Alabama is a huge favorite. The Crimson Tide look to become the first team to repeat as national champions in the Playoff era and to claim their 19th title overall and seventh under Nick Saban. Cincinnati broke through the glass ceiling becoming the first team from the Group of Five to make it to the Playoff.

The marquee matchup in this game is the high-powered Alabama offense led by Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young going up against the Cincinnati defense led by a pair of outstanding cornerbacks, Thorpe Award winner Coby Bryant and projected first round pick Sauce Gardner. Thanks in large part to that duo, the Bearcats are first in the country in pass efficiency defense and seventh in pass EPA defense. Cincinnati’s excellent secondary still has its hands full with big play receiver Jameson Williams, but Alabama is going to have to find someone to step up next to him with John Metchie out with a knee injury suffered in the SEC Championship Game. Metchie was the possession receiver in the Alabama offense with 96 catches this season. After Metchie and Williams Alabama’s next leading receiver is Slade Bolden who had 32 catches for 333 yards. Tight End Cameron Latu is a scoring threat, six of his 20 catches were for touchdowns, but Alabama doesn’t have another established receiving threat between the 20s.

While replacing Metchie is certainly a big question, the biggest question pertaining to the Alabama offense is about the offensive line. Was the SEC Championship Game a turning point for the unit or was it the high end of the spectrum for an inconsistent unit? Alabama entered the SEC Championship Game 86th in the country in sack rate and allowed 36 sacks in 12 regular season games and they were perfect in pass protection against the then-historically good Georgia defense. Cincinnati is pretty good at getting after the quarterback, ranking 23rd in sack rate in FBS and averaging 2.85 sacks per game. Alabama has been pretty underwhelming running the ball this year, particularly compared to their own lofty standards, so I wouldn’t expect them to run with a ton of success against a defense that gives up just 3.3 yards per carry.

The matchup of Cincinnati offense against the Alabama defense isn’t nearly as ballyhooed but comes with its own level of intrigue. The Alabama defense wasn’t the wrecking ball unit most people thought they could be coming into the season, but the only real knock on Cincinnati’s offense is that they haven’t been great against Power 5 defenses. Over the past two seasons they’ve played three Power 5 teams: Georgia in the Peach Bowl, Indiana and Notre Dame this regular season (Notre Dame counts as a Power 5 team for all intents and purposes). In all three of those games Cincinnati had a negative EPA. Against Indiana, the Bearcats had just 20 yards through their first six drives until Indiana’s best defensive player got ejected for targeting. At least talent wise, Alabama is a pretty significant step up from every defense Cincinnati has played this year except for Notre Dame. Desmond Ridder has been efficient this year ranking 11th in the country in pass efficiency and Jerome Ford will have a little extra motivation going against his old team, but will they have enough firepower to move the ball on Alabama consistently?

This is a game that SCREAMS bet the under. Cincinnati has been an underdog ten times in the last four years and every single one of those games has gone under. Make of that what you will, but also know that most of those were before last year. Even so, this is a team that just hasn’t been as efficient against teams with Power 5 level talent so scoring should be hard to come by. I also think the Cincinnati defense has earned a great deal of respect and while it’s hard to imagine anyone shutting down the Alabama offense, even if it did struggle in a few games this year, the Cincinnati defense is still worth all the accolades it has gotten. The spread is a stay away. I think Cincinnati is a little bit undervalued here, but being against Alabama in a Semifinal game isn’t something I’m extremely interested in.