WEEK 14 NFL Picks and Plays!
By: Zack Nicol
Tags: Fun, Football, Daily Fantasy Sports, NFL, Gambling

See below for my picks, plays, Model Z breakdown and explanation for Week 14’s Sunday NFL Games. Check out my crazy Round Robin to win $134k at the end! Anyone that “claps” at this article, gets $10 if I win the whole thing!

Please note that I am not advising anyone to participate in any gambling. I am simply telling you what I will be doing (legally in New Jersey).

Sunday, December 13th

1:00 PM ET

HOUSTON TEXANS (-1.5) at CHICAGO BEARS ; O/U 45.5

Model Z Projection: 28–21 CHI

Straight Up Pick: Chicago Bears

Spread Pick: CHI +1.5⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

O/U Pick: Over 45.5⭐

Zack’s Plays:

- *3X BET* CHI ML (+110)

- David Montgomery to score / CHI to win (+220)

- David Montgomery Over 65.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

- Cole Kmet to score / CHI to win(+550)

- Allen Robinson to score / CHI to win (+290)

- Cole Kmet to score 2x (+3200)

Top DFS Matchups: David Montgomery ($6,500)!!, Allen Robinson ($6,800)!, Cole Kmet ($2,900), Mitchell Tubisky ($5,600)

Notable Inactives: CHI CB3 Buster Skrine

Notes: Ask my friends Kenny and Matt (this is test to see if they actually read these), this line made my jaw drop. I think the Bears should be favored by a handful of points and somehow they are home underdogs. This is the absolute perfect example of recency bias if you ask me. Deshaun Watson is very very good, I get it. But that’s not a good enough excuse to ignore the Texans flaws. The Bears defense is the 6th best in the Model Z, the Texans are 29th. Even the “bad news Bears” offense (23rd in the Model Z) put up 4 touchdowns last week and 3 the week before led by the dominance of RB David Montgomery. I expect more of the same against one of the worst defenses in the league this week. You guys don’t understand how confident I am with this. I’m going to break my fake rules here, and make this a 10 star spread confidence, bold this sentence, lock this spread the night before (+1.5) before people change their minds, and make it 3x on the plays. For players, I’ll be looking heavily at Montgomery and Robinson, but keep an eye out for rookie TE Cole Kmet who is slowly surpassing Jimmy Graham for the #1 Tight End target.

Congratulations everyone, you just witnessed ZACK’S LOCK OF THE YEAR.

Sunday, December 13th

1:00 PM ET

DALLAS COWBOYS (-3) at CINCINNATI BENGALS ; O/U 43.5

Model Z Projection: 27–23 DAL

Straight Up Pick: Dallas Cowboys

Spread Pick: DAL -3⭐

O/U Pick: Over 43.5⭐⭐⭐⭐

Zack’s Plays:

- Andy Dalton Over 247.5 Passing Yards (-110)

- Over 1.5 Andy Dalton Touchdowns (-110)

Top DFS Matchups: Andy Dalton, Ezekiel Elliott

Notable Inactives: DAL DB Anthony Brown, Chidobe Awuzie

Notes: Wow, I’m all wound up now. This will be a great game to calm me down lol. Well, my “Cowboys division winner” prediction from a few weeks ago isn’t looking so great after a few upsets from Washington and New York, putting the Cowboys two games back and (+2000) to win the division. The model likes the Cowboys on the road here and I agree. They just have way more weapons than Cincinatti does, it’s as simple as that. The real problem for the Cowboys is they will be without some of their starting cornerbacks this week. It sounds like AJ Green will be done for the rest of the season, Mixon still isn’t back so it’s all up to Tyler Boyd when it comes to talent on that team. If Zeke has the motivation, and I do question that he does this year, this will be a great opportunity for him as the Bengals are 29th in the league in Rush Yards allowed. And with the weapons Dalton has, as long as he has some time, I can see a good game out of him as well against the 26th vQB in the Model Z.

Sunday, December 13th

1:00 PM ET

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-7) at MIAMI DOLPHINS ; O/U 50.5

Model Z Projection: 27–22 KC

Straight Up Pick: Kansas City Chiefs

Spread Pick: KC -7⭐

O/U Pick: Under 50.5⭐

Zack’s Plays:

- DeAndre Washington Over 45.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Top DFS Matchups: DeAndre Washington ($4,000)

Notable Inactives: KC LB Damien Wilson, MIA LG Erick Flowers, MIA RB1 Myles Gaskin, MIA RB2 Salvon Ahmed

Notes: The story of the week for this game are the Running Backs for Miami. They’ve already gone through the ringer this year at that position with 9, count em, 9 running backs with snaps this year. This week they will start former Kansas City Chief DeAndre Washington to face his former team. I like him in fantasy this week, but do not expect him to bring home the win for them against the best team in the league. Miami’s defense is great though and it’s not a secret so they should put up a fight. It’s the offense though that is just not built to win this year. No WR2 Preston Williams for the rest of the year, no RB1 2 or 3, rookie QB and the 2nd worst Offensive Line in my model. I’m nervous about the big number, but I’ll take the Chiefs giving the points on the road as I think their offense can score more points than the Dolphins can. That’s how football works right?

Sunday, December 13th

1:00 PM ET

ARIZONA CARDINALS (-3) at NEW YORK GIANTS ; O/U 46.5

Model Z Projection: 27–24 ARI

Straight Up Pick: New York Giants

Spread Pick: NYG +3⭐

O/U Pick: Over 46.5⭐⭐

Zack’s Plays:

- *2X BET* Daniel Jones Over 214.5 Passing Yards (-110)

- Wayne Gallman to score (+105)

Top DFS Matchups: Wayne Gallman ($5,700), Daniel Jones ($5,500)

Notable Inactives: ARI S Jalen Thompson

Notes: This is the one of the toughest games on the slate for me. The Giants hype is the highest it’s been all season and I’ll buy into it as long as Daniel Jones starts. If it’s Colt McCoy, chill out, he had 107 total yards last week. I do like Gallman, the defense and Daniel Jones though so if he plays, and it looks like he is on track, they have a real chance here. The Cardinals however are going the wrong way. They’ve lost 3 straight and they’ve turned this into a a basically must-win game to get to the playoffs. The Model likes the Cardinals and I think I’ve figured out why. The Giants are bad on offense (31st in YPG, 30th in PPG) and have mediocre 2nd and 3rd Cornerbacks. The Cardinals are the opposite as they are great on offense, maybe not so good on defense, but are semi-deep at corner. Gah I’m really torn here. I was down to take the Cardinals, but then you look at that DLine (2nd worst in the model). I’m starting to believe that Daniel Jones is a good qb, and if you give a good QB time, they do well. Fine, I’ll take the Giants. Not happy about it though.

Sunday, December 13th

1:00 PM ET

MINNESOTA VIKINGS at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS(-6.5) ; O/U 52.5

Model Z Projection: 32–22 TB

Straight Up Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Spread Pick: TB -6.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

O/U Pick: Over 52.5⭐⭐

Zack’s Plays: **removed Fournette bets after a healthy scratch announced at 11:30am ET**

- TB -6.5 (-110)

- Rob Gronkowski to score / TB to win DOUBLE (+280)

- Tom Brady Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (+136)

- Kirk Cousins Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+122)

- Mike Evans Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Top DFS Matchups: Tom Brady ($6,900), Mike Evans ($6,600), Chris Godwin ($6,300), Rob Gronkowski ($4,800)

Notable Inactives: MIN RB2 Alexander Mattison, MIN LB Eric Kendricks, MIN TE Kyle Rudolph, TB CB2* Jamel Dean

Notes: This is another one of my favorite plays of the slate. I know that myself and the model have overhyped Tampa this year, but you’re going to have to believe me on this one. Tampa is coming off a BYE week, in a playoff hunt, with a stacked and healthy team. against an awful defense, who is also beat up. I’m telling ya, Tampa is going to win this game. Ah jeez, that’s two super locks in one article, this could come back to bite me. But seriously, Minnesota’s best defensive player, LB Eric Kendricks is out and they were already bad. They also don’t have 2 of their 2nd tier weapons (behind Cook, Thielen and Jefferson) in TE Kyle Rudolph and Alexander Mattison. On the Model Z, Minnesota 32nd vRB, 27th vWR, 26th vTE and 31st vQB. C’mon, let’s party.

Sunday, December 13th

1:00 PM ET

DENVER BRONCOS at CAROLINA PANTHERS (-4) ; O/U 44.5

Model Z Projection: 26–23 DEN

Straight Up Pick: Carolina Panthers

Spread Pick: CAR -4⭐⭐⭐⭐

O/U Pick: Over 44.5⭐⭐

Zack’s Plays:

- CAR -4 (-110)

- Teddy Bridgewater Over 241.5 Passing Yards (-110)

Top DFS Matchups: Curtis Samuel ($5,200), Robby Anderson ($6,200), Melvin Gordon ($5,200)

Notable Inactives: Callahan, DEN CB2* AJ Bouye, CAR RB1 Christian McCaffrey, CAR WR2* DJ Moore

Notes: Hear me out, it would be just complete bonkers to have 3 super locks in one slate right? Well, I think we have another here, less than the others, but still a lock. Here’s why: The Broncos just got bad (if they weren’t already) and I don’t think people even know why. Their defense is the only thing keeping them afloat right? I think we all know that. Well…they will be without their CB1 and CB2 on the defensive side, plus their starting Left Guard. Good luck Broncos.

Now, they are facing the Panthers who aren’t exactly electric on offense, especially because McCaffrey is probably out again this week, but I believe they have enough firepower to get it done against backups. Here’s the problem… the Model Z says otherwise. WR2* DJ Moore for the Panthers is out as well, and their WR3 and WR4 are basically minimum scores on the model so I think that is why it is so low. Okay, so maybe it isn’t a lock, but it’s definitely a 4⭐. For matchups, give me Curtis Samuel who gets a little less time and targets than Robby Anderson, but gets more work in the redzone (and is a cheaper price). Both are good options though. I also like how DEN RB Melvin Gordon has been running as of late and gets to face the Carolina who is 23rd vRB.

Sunday, December 13th

1:00 PM ET

TENNESSEE TITANS (-7.5) at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS ; O/U 52.5

Model Z Projection: 32–21 TEN

Straight Up Pick: Tennessee Titans

Spread Pick: TEN -7.5 ⭐⭐⭐

O/U Pick: Over 52.5⭐

Zack’s Plays:

- TEN -7.5 (-110)

- Ryan Tannehill Over 245.5 Passing Yards (-110)

- Corey Davis Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

- AJ Brown Over 65.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

- Jonnu Smith Over 26.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Top DFS Matchups: Derrick Henry ($8,700), James Robinson ($7,500), Corey Davis ($5,700), AJ Brown ($7,300), Jonnu Smith ($3,900), Ryan Tannehill ($6,700)

Notable Inactives: None

Notes: Is this Titans team a true Super Bowl contender? I think we all know they can be good, but can they be great? I say yes. They have struggled recently on defense, but they are certainly great on offense. Speaking of, I’d like to introduce to all of you a top-3 most underrated players in the game: TEN WR2 Corey Davis. If he wasn’t on your radar already, it’s time to lock in. The dude has hit 100 yards receiving four times now this season on a limited amount of targets, he’s #2 only behind Davante Adams on Pro Football Focus, he was drafted 5th overall just a few years ago and has a sexy matchup against the last place team vWR in the Model Z. The Jags as we know are young and like to fight even in matchups that they are clearly unfavorable, but the spread isn’t thaaaaat high so I feel good about taking the Titans here. Great matchups for DFS though in what could be a high scoring game if the Titans defense can’t figure it out, but the prices are pretty high.

Sunday, December 13th

4:05 PM ET

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-3) at LAS VEGAS RAIDERS ; O/U 52.5

Model Z Projection: 28–22 IND

Straight Up Pick: Indianapolis Colts

Spread Pick: IND -3⭐⭐⭐

O/U Pick: Under 52.5⭐

Zack’s Plays:

- Trey Burton to score / IND to win (+390)

- IND -3 (-110)

Top DFS Matchups: TY Hilton ($5,100), Trey Burton ($3,100), Phillip Rivers ($5,900)

Notable Inactives: LV S Jeff Heath, LV S Jonathan Abram

Notes: In what looks like an intriguing matchup, I see an easy cover. Indy has been very good not only on defense but on offense as well, while the Raiders are one of the most inconsistent teams but have somehow found themselves at 7–5. Does this look like a 7–5 team to anyone? Maybe Rob McGillick (another shout out to see if he reads my stuff). They do get Josh Jacobs back which is key, but will be without S Jeff Heath and possibly S Jonathan Abram as well. The Colts OLine looks to be fully healthy though, and land at #1 on the Model Z OLine rankings. They face a defensive line who is not great (19th) so I forsee Rivers having plenty of time to decipher the sub-par Raiders secondary. The Raiders defense as a whole just hasn’t performed statistically as they are 24th in Pass Yards Allowed, 15th in Pass TDs allowed, 20th in Rush Yards Allowed, 31st in Rushing TDs allowdd, then 25th in both total Yards and total Touchdowns allowed. That’s a lot of stats, but I needed to prove to myself why I think they are just average. I’ll take the Colts giving points on the road as I think the Colts are a tough matchup for RB Josh Jacobs which I think is the motor to that offense. I also think TY Hilton will continue his comeback to receiver relevance against this secondary (28th vWR in Model Z). Also keep an eye on Trey Burton who is becoming (if he isn’t already) the TE1 in Indy as he is leading in targets and redzone-looks in a crowded Tight End group.

Sunday, December 13th

4:05 PM ET

NEW YORK JETS at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-14.5) ; O/U 47.5

Model Z Projection: 34–17 SEA

Straight Up Pick: Seattle Seahawks

Spread Pick: SEA -14.5⭐⭐

O/U Pick: Under 47.5⭐

Zack’s Plays:

- Chris Carson to score 2x (+450)

Top DFS Matchups: Chris Carson ($6,900)

Notable Inactives: NYJ Denzel Mims

Notes: Ah the only double-digit spread on the slate (although I think there should be a few more). The model usually doesn’t show big blowouts, but this one is one of the largest I’ve seen on the year projecting a 14 point difference in favor of the Seahawks. In the Model, the Seahawks are 6th overall, the Jets are 32nd. The Seahawks are 3rd on offense, and the Jets are 32nd. The Seahawks are 11th on defense, and the Jets are…you guessed it, 32nd. It’s a wrap. Now, we have a new defensive coordinator so anything can happen, but I don’t see it. Give the Jets the points and the Seahawks get back on track here after a letdown to the other New York team. Great matchups all around for the Seahawks as you can imagine, it’s all about how you think the gameflow will be and prices you might have to pay for those guys in DFS and for Player Props. I like the run game for the Seahawks, it’s just about if they want to keep Carson healthy or not by limiting his touches.

Sunday, December 13th

4:25 PM ET

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-8.5) at DETROIT LIONS ; O/U 55.5

Model Z Projection: 32–21 GB

Straight Up Pick: Green Bay Packers

Spread Pick: GB -8.5⭐⭐⭐

O/U Pick: Over 55.5⭐

Zack’s Plays:

- GB -8.5 (-110)

- Aaron Jones to score / GB to win (-130)

- Davonte Adams to score / GB to win (-125)

Top DFS Matchups: Aaron Jones ($7,600), Devante Adams ($9,300), Robert Tonyan ($4,200)

Notable Inactives: DET CB3* Jeff Okudah (IR), DET RT Tyrell Crosby

Notes: The Lions are another team that have outperformed their team in my opinion with a 5–7 record. Not that crazy, but with their injuries they’ve had to deal with, I’m surprised. They’ll be without their 1st round pick CB Jeff Okudah again, and apparently for the rest of the season. They’ll be without WR1 Kenny Golladay yet again which means I just can’t pick them to win, I just can’t. They’re 27th on the Model and face who is the clear #2 in the MVP race, Aaron Rodgers. I usually don’t do this in my research, but I went straight to vQB for this matchup to see how it looks for Aaron Rodgers, and the Lions land at 22nd which is about expected. Defensively, the Lions are actually bad against the run and the pass, more-so against the run landing at 32nd in Rush TDs allowed. Ouch. So maybe it’s another Aaron Jones game? Either way, the Packers get the win and I think they cover as well. And can we also take a moment to recognize the greatness of Davante Adams? The dude has 13 touchdowns in 10 games, and 11 over his last 7. I doubted him last week, and I won’t do it again. Juicy matchup for GB TE Robert Tonyan too. Why not, put the whole roster on the watch list against this Detroit defense. Sorry Craig.

Sunday, December 13th

4:25 PM ET

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-7.5) at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES ; O/U 42.5

Model Z Projection: 28–19 NO

Straight Up Pick: New Orleans Saints

Spread Pick: NO -7.5⭐⭐⭐

O/U Pick: Under 42.5⭐

Zack’s Plays:

- Taysom Hill to score / NO to win (+115)

- Taysom Hill to score 2x (+470)

- Taysom Hill to score 1st TD / NO to win (+550)

- Alvin Kamara Over 75.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-110)

- Alvin Kamara to score / NO to win (+120)

- NO -7.5 (-110)

Top DFS Matchups: Taysom Hill ($6,600). Alvin Kamara ($7,100)

Notable Inactives: NO DT Malcolm Brown, NO DL Sheldon Rankins?, PHI LT Jason Peters

Notes: An easy one for the moneyline, a tough one for the spread here. I like Jalen Hurts and I think he’ll do well in the NFL, but he has to face the #3 defense in the model. A tough task for the young rookie, especially with an awful active offensive line to support him (25th in the model). Okay maybe the spread isn’t as hard as I thought, give me the Saints giving seven with “medium rare” level confidence. The Eagles are great against the pass statistically, but awful against the run (30th in Rush TDs allowed). I expect Taysom Hill and Alvin Kamara to stay on the ground and give it to the Eagles. The Eagles are 24th vTE in the model too which I would like to exploit, but Kamara and hill steal too many redzone touches from them.

Sunday, December 13th

4:25 PM ET

ATLANTA FALCONS (-1) at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS ; O/U 48.5

Model Z Projection: 27–24 LAC

Straight Up Pick: Los Angeles Chargers

Spread Pick: LC +1⭐⭐⭐

O/U Pick: Over 48.5⭐

Zack’s Plays:

- LAC ML (+100)

- LAC Over 24 Points (-110)

- Austin Ekeler to score (+120)

- Mike Williams to score 2x (+1700)

- Keenan Allen to score / LAC to win (+270)

Top DFS Matchups: Austin Ekeler ($7,000), Mike Williams ($4,700), Keenan Allen ($7,700), Justin Herbert ($6,800)

Notable Inactives: ATL WR1 Julio Jones, ATL S Ricardo Allen, ATL LG James Carpenter, LAC LB Denzel Perryman

Notes: One of those great matchup that means nothing. The Chargers have already been eliminated from the playoffs with a 3–9 record, while the Falcons aren’t too far behind that feat with a 4–8 record. The Chargers, as I’ve mentioned before, are either unlucky or poorly coached as they are always losing close games. They also are great in YPG (7th) and Yards allowed (9th), but when it comes to touchdowns, they don’t get very many (22nd) and they give up a bunch (27th). The model projects a close win by the Chargers, and I agree. Give me the offensive threat of Herbert, Ekeler, Allen and Williams against this struggling Atlanta defense against the pass (30th in Pass Yards allowed, 26th in Pass TDs allowed), especially with Julio Jones out on the other side. Bolt Up (I think that’s what they say).

Sunday, December 13th

4:25 PM ET

WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM at SAN FRANCISCO 49ers (-2.5); O/U 43.5

Model Z Projection: 25–21 SF

Straight Up Pick: San Francisco 49ers

Spread Pick: SF -2.5⭐⭐⭐

O/U Pick: Over 43.5⭐

Zack’s Plays:

- Deebo Samuel to score (+170)

- Brandon Aiyuk to score (+220)

- SF -2.5 (-110)

Top DFS Matchups: Deebo Samuel ($6,400), Brandon Aiyuk ($5,400)

Notable Inactives: SF CB3 Emmanuel Moseley, WAS RB1 Antonio Gibson

Notes: Washington breakout star Antonio Gibson is out, and I should end the notes right now, but I’ll look into it. San Fran is finally getting healthy, and now face a very similar team now that I look at it. Both are primarily defensive teams, and are average on offense. The 49ers are 20th on Offense in the Model Z, Washington is a good bit worse at 28th with Gibson out. The 49ers are 8th on defense and the Football Team lands at 14. I think the key is that the 6th ranked 49ers Offensive Line will be able to neutralize the 4th ranked Washington Defensive Line. I think the Niners have more firepower than Washington, so give me -3.5 at home. For matchups, Washington is surprisingly average vWR so I’ll be looking at the underrated combo of Aiyuk and Samuel to do well today.

Sunday, December 13th

8:20 PM ET

PITTSBURGH STEELERS at BUFFALO BILLS (-1.5); O/U 48.5

Model Z Projection: 27–22 PIT

Straight Up Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers

Spread Pick: PIT +2.5⭐⭐

O/U Pick: Over 48.5⭐

Zack’s Plays:

- James Conner to score (+130)

- PIT +2.5 (-110)

Top DFS Matchups: James Conner ($6,300)

Notable Inactives: PIT CB1 Joe Haden, PIT LB Robert Spillane

Notes: A “game of the week” Sunday Night game to finish the day! I think I was ready to go with the Bills here, but the Model says no way! The Steelers have taken over the top spot overall while the Bills land at 11th. Now, Pittsburgh will be without their top corner Joe Haden, but they have enough corner depth to make up for his absence. But with James Conner back on the field this week for the Steelers, I think they rely on him in the run game against a Bills team who is 24th in Rush Yards allowed and 26th Rush TDs allowed. It’s a tougher game than I’m making it sound, but I don’t have much hesitation here. The Over Under is tough though, as both offenses are good and so are their defenses. I’ll lean to the over because Haden is out, but not much confidence behind that.