A simple framework for making better decisions
By: Sean Hanrahan
Tags: Leadership, Decision Making, Personal Development, Communication, Management

“Everything should be made as simple as possible, but no simpler” Albert Einstein

In a world of ever-increasing connections between people, places and things, one small action can have an infinite number of outcomes. These connections create nearly limitless volumes of information. To make informed decisions in this complex environment requires simplicity.

However, creating simplicity must be the result of hard work, not a short-cut. Too often, in our rush to decide or to justify a decision we skip the process of building an understanding. This is a trap that often compromises the decision making of managers.

Alternatively, technical experts often get lost in all the possible outcomes. Overwhelmed by the complexity they become paralysed by indecision and unable to communicate effectively to the people they want to influence.

In my roles as a strategist and manager of an infrastructure planning team, I have relied on the following framework to navigate complexity and make informed decisions:

A framework for making good decisions

Step 1: Simple

When we see or hear something for the first time, we combine our observation with our past experiences, knowledge and biases to draw an initial conclusion.

Step 1: The thought process for making simple conclusions

This primarily unconscious process is based on our limited knowledge and inherent biases. These conclusions often align with the views of the people and media with which we surround ourselves.

As long as we don’t make a decision based on this conclusion, this isn’t a problem. No-one has the time or energy to explore the details of every piece of new information.

Making an informed decision on new information requires us to dig a little deeper.

Step 2: Complex

Making an informed decision means going beyond our own experiences and knowledge. It requires creating scenarios, seeking out additional information and refining our conclusions.

Step 2: The thought process for navigating complexity

Building a deep understanding requires several additional steps and feedback loops. Unlike Step 1, we seek out new information and run mental simulations to project what will happen under different scenarios.

Working through these additional steps takes conscious effort (as opposed to Step 1) and will challenge our initial conclusions. The best sign of progress as we navigate complexity is that we have lost all faith in our initial findings.

After becoming truly confused, we have two choices- put in the work or decide that ‘ignorance is bliss’ and return to the safety of Step 1. Most people choose the latter.

What happens when we choose ‘ignorance is bliss.’

If we choose to try and cross the chasm between complexity and understanding, we will need to:

Dive into the details

Explore dead ends

Seek out the opinions of others

However, it is also possible to become lost in the details, forever pursuing dead ends. Or worse, remaining at a dead end and pretending like we aren’t because our egos can’t handle being wrong.

A lot of people in technical disciplines lose themselves in the complexity. They are capable of having great technical discussions but are unable to explain what they know to people with less knowledge. When pressed to make a recommendation, their suggestion is nearly always more analysis.

The best sign of progression is to be able to ask intelligent questions of an expert in the field.

As our knowledge expands, we begin to comprehend the long list of variables that we need to consider. These factors have second and third-order consequences and feedback loops with impacts that are difficult to quantity.

After identifying all of the variables, it’s time to separate the noise from the signal. This requires us to understand:

Critical factors: The few variables with the biggest impact on the desired outcome.

Leverage points: The few variables that are the easiest to influence and have a significant impact on the desired outcome.

Critical factors and leverage points form the foundations of our understanding which then determines our decision. Critical factors are used to frame the problem and the leverage points become the source of potential solutions.

After identifying the critical factors and leverage points we can create a simple explanation that follows the following formula:

The problem is …

The desired outcomes …

The factors that drive this outcome are…

The best opportunities to influence this outcome are…

This simple description can be used to form the basis of an explanation that can be understood by someone without an appreciation of the complexities.

Step 3: Simple

The final step is communicating our understanding to decision-makers or those whose support we need to implement our decision. To do this, we need to build a narrative:

Step 3: Building the narrative

Influencing the opinions of decision-makers or explaining the importance to people who will execute is all about simplicity. A good story weaves in the problem, the critical factors, leverage points and solution through an analogy.

Whether it’s drawing comparisons between a greenhouse to explain climate change or a frog in boiling water to explain the consequences of small changes, analogies are a powerful communication tool.

Combining our understanding with a compelling story makes us not only informed but influential.

It is essential to keep the narrative tied to the facts that it was initially built on. Often in trying to communicate, we can oversimplify or seek to overstate the evidence in support of our decision. This is one of the traps that managers often fall into.

Where managers go wrong

Managers are often great at sharing and promoting the narratives of decisions. However, they rely on technical experts to advise them on the critical factors, leverage points and potential solutions.

Often without the time to understand the details, they usually skip the process of understanding the complexity their technical advisers are trying to navigate. This creates a knowledge gap.

How managers often navigate the framework

The knowledge gap created by a lack of understanding of complexity has a range of consequences for managers:

They allow the narrative to move further and further away from the facts on which it was initially built.

They fail to identify the right experts to listen to.

They’re unable to recognise and develop the experts they manage.

They’re unable to challenge the assumptions and analysis of experts.

They can create centralised knowledge in the hands of a few experts who become critical points of failure if they leave the organisation.

There some key questions that managers can ask themselves to identify if their knowledge gap is becoming a problem:

Do I understand what my people do and how they do it?

Do I understand the critical factors and leverage points for my area of responsibility?

Am I developing and empowering my technical experts?

Is critical knowledge shared across the team?

If the answer to any of these questions is no, it’s time to shift focus to understand the complexity your team is trying to navigate.

Summary