Why Republicans Improved Their Leverage this Election
By: Yash Rajpal
Tags: Congress, Trump, Elections, Election 2020, Politics

Despite the political polarization that arose as a result of the Trump administration, not a single incumbent Republican House member lost their election. And if historical trends continue, Democrats are likely to lose a significant number of House seats next election.

What does that mean, exactly? Democrats need to push as much of their agenda through as possible, or their time in power could be shorter than they hoped.

Why Congress Will Probably Switch Parties

Since World War II, there has only been one midterm election through which the party in the White House gained seats in the House of Representatives; in fact, on average, the presidential party has lost twenty-seven seats during each midterm.

But what makes prospects so much better for Republicans is the time at which this election took place: during a census year.

Although Democrats took a supermajority in the New York Legislature, Democrats will only have full control over the mapping of eighty-three seats, whereas Republicans will have sole control over the mapping of one-hundred eighty-eight. If you look back to the last election where Republicans had control of these procedures, Republicans took advantage of demographics data and rigged the redistricting process in their favor; that’s why it’s so hard for Democrats to stay in control.

Even more importantly, Democrats might have a sense of security if this election had gone how they planned. While they were projected to gain a handful of seats, they’re on track to lose approximately ten; because they lacked an overwhelming majority in the first place, even a couple defections could trash a Democratic agenda. For a Biden administration looking to halt a number of Trump-era programs, this could prove difficult for their goals.

In the Senate, where Democrats were favorable in at least five Republican-held seats, Republicans held three and picked up one, minimizing the chance for an outright Democratic majority. Defections from Democratic moderates like Joe Manchin are going to hurt some of the progressive agenda that Biden campaigned on.

It’s Not All Bad News for Democrats, Though

While this election wasn’t the Blue Wave 2.0 it was thought to be, Democrats have found some solace in their victories. They held a large part of the suburban districts they took in 2018. That’s important if they want to be able to compete in important upcoming senatorial elections in key states, including Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio, and Wisconsin.

As well as this, the districts Republicans picked up were those Trump won pretty handily back in 2016; by defending spots where the Democratic base is strong, Democrats can be happy that they haven’t alienated all of their base yet.

Photo by Brad Huchteman on Unsplash

Why Georgia’s Runoff Election is So Important

Although Democrats seem poised to be competitive in a number of Republican-held seats in 2022, polls, however inaccurate they were this year, indicate that they still stand a chance to take David Perdue’s and Kelly Loeffler’s seats in Georgia. If Democrats want to pass legislation that will increase healthcare coverage, impose climate restrictions, and increase worker rights, they’re going to need the Senate. Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff are the ones who’d have to deliver that majority.

But if Democrats do end up taking those seats, they’d be able to either increase their majority or hold a stronger minority position than they hold now; a couple of defections from a Republican front could deliver strong Democratic policies on a number of key issues, helping a hypothetical Biden agenda continue throughout his whole term in office.

It’s for these reasons that Democrats and Republicans across the country are throwing millions and millions of dollars into the campaigns in the Peach state; in fact, high-profile politicians like Bernie Sanders and Marco Rubio have traveled to Georgia to campaign for their respective candidates.

The Trump Effect

Although Biden’s victory in Georgia could signal a party switch Democrats have been working towards for almost a decade, some pundits claim the his victory only took place as a result of split voting. And the evidence is pretty convincing.

Even though Perdue is a Trump hardliner, many Biden voters simply gave their vote to the Democrat out of anger at the Trump administration; however much Democrats wanted to portray the Republican party as a whole under Trump, that message seems to have failed. And if they cannot convince traditional anti-Trump Republicans to switch, their hopes for a Democratic-majority are not likely to come to fruition. It’s why so much ad spending has been put into the typically Republican stronghold.

If Democrats also want to appeal to their increasingly progressive base, they need to set in plans now to prepare for more progressive policies and politicians down the line. That depends on Georgia’s results.

And although Republicans lost the White House, the House of Representatives, and possibly the Senate, many pundits are calling this election a backlash to the far-left progressive image conservatives seem to be giving the Democratic party. Whether or not this is true, it’s important to consider what this election showed Democrats: their election strategy is nowhere near as efficient as it should be. That’s something that, if they want to stay in power, they’re going to have to adapt as demographics and policies change under their Biden administration.