Previewing the Wildly Unpredictable 72nd Primetime Emmy Awards
By: Richard Lebeau
Tags: Television, Culture, Awards, Streaming, Entertainment

Promotional Image for the 72nd Emmys (Copyright: ATAS/ABC)

On Sunday, September 20th, the Academy of Television Arts and Sciences (ATAS) will announce their picks for the best that television networks and streaming services had to offer in the 2019–2020 season. Picking the best in television and streaming is increasingly becoming a thankless and impossible task, given the ever-increasing amount of high quality offerings available across a number of ever-diversifying platforms. Nevertheless, prior winners, the nomination announcement in July, other award shows from earlier in the year, and the predictions of various critics and industry insiders give us some big clues about who is likely to prevail in the top categories. But before I get into my predictions in the major categories, here are a few things to expect from the ceremony itself, which is going virtual due to the pandemic devastating our nation.

Surprise Winners. Last year, my predictions were a mixed bag. I only correctly guessed the winners of 13 of the 25 major categories. I underestimated how much the Academy would go for Fleabag over the final season of Veep and Chernobyl over When They See Us. Perhaps I simply wasn’t listening to the buzz or just had an off year. But I think it’s more the fact that when quality and buzz is so widely distributed among an unprecedented number of eligible series, wins that are perceived as “upsets” are going to happen more and more. After decades of people complaining that the Emmys were stodgy, predictable, and repetitive, we would be fools not to embrace this turn of events (even if it means our prediction accuracy falters). Another factor is that it’s virtually impossible to keep up with all of the nominated shows as the number of nominees per category and the number of platforms on which to consume television expand. (Although I am increasingly unsure as to whether having seen the nominated series actually helps improve prediction accuracy…) An Innovative, Unpredictable Ceremony. For me, one of the most exciting aspects of this year’s ceremony is to see how they will adapt to the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike other awards shows (e.g., the Tonys and the Oscars), which substantially postponed their ceremonies, the Emmys are going on as scheduled. And by all accounts, they have a very ambitious evening plan with hundreds of live feeds featuring nominees and presenters in a host of different locations. Although there is the potential for there to be an incredible amount of awkwardness, there is also the potential for the Emmys to shake up the increasingly stale awards show format with an injection of some fresh, innovative elements. Further evidence that this could be a great ceremony includes that buzz from the similarly formatted Creative Arts Emmy ceremonies this week has been strong and that the announced slate of presenters is diverse and inspired (e.g., Morgan Freeman, Lin-Manuel Miranda, Patrick Stewart, Oprah Winfrey, Laverne Cox). Plenty of “Fresh Blood” Among the Winners. Of the 10 drama and comedy winners last year across the Outstanding Series, Lead Acting, and Supporting Acting categories, five are ineligible to repeat. (Game of Thrones and Fleabag wrapped their runs and Barry’s latest season got delayed by COVID-19 shutdowns). That means that we will be getting fresh winners in several major categories, which I suspect will be especially good news for PopTV’s Canadian comedy sensation Schit’s Creek and HBO’s latest prestige drama Succession. Too Much ABC Cross-Promotion. The Emmys rotate between the four broadcast networks each year and without fail the network hosting it finds shameless ways to plug their own programming by inserting their talent into the telecast in often unseemly ways. Continuing this tradition, the producers have tapped ABC late night star Jimmy Kimmel as host. A Lot of Commentary on Current Events. This is probably not going to be a great year for those people out there who think celebrities and creatives should “shut up and [insert skill/profession here].” In the last few months alone, science denial has contributed to the deaths of over 200,000 Americans and set large swaths of our country literally on fire, we have one of the most contentious and high-stakes elections in the history of our country less than two months away, and there has been a massive anti-racist movement both nationally and in Hollywood over the last few months (e.g., the Oscars’ controversial new diversity initiative). I find it hard to believe that winners and presenters won’t use their platforms to weigh in — and they may feel especially emboldened doing so when they are in their living room and not on a stage staring at their peers. Ignoring the Monumental Anniversaries that the Emmys Should Celebrate. The day before the ceremony will mark the 50th anniversary of the premiere of The Mary Tyler Moore Show, which — until Frasier’s final season — was the most Emmy awarded comedy series in history. A few days ago marked the 35th anniversary of the iconic, 11-time Emmy-winning sitcom The Golden Girls. And the first batch of Seinfeld episodes aired 30 years ago this summer. But such milestones will undoubtedly go unmentioned as the Emmys seem determined to be hip and relevant, often at the expense of honoring the very history it is their mission to preserve. A Gloriously Schitt-y Evening. The cultural phenomenon that is Schitt’s Creek ended this past April with a beautiful series finale. But unlike most cultural phenomena, its day at the Emmys has just arrived (usually a show’s Emmy heydays are long over by the time the series finale rolls around). The series got zero nominations for its first four seasons, but broke through in four categories last year. This year it has 15 nominations and is ranked in the first or second positions in all seven major categories by most prognosticators (including me). Even if it only wins a fraction of those, it is going to be a gloriously Schitt-y evening that will undoubtedly make the show’s rabid fanbase delighted.

The cast of “Schitt’s Creek” (Copyright: PopTV/CBC)

Note: Winners in a number of categories (mostly technical, but some notable) are being announced in a series of five ceremonies. Four occurred earlier this week and the last is Saturday. The winners of those awards, which can provide clues as to where the Emmys current passions lie, can be found here.

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WINNER PREDICTIONS — DRAMA

Clockwise from top: Images from “Succession” (Copyright: HBO), “Ozark” (Copyright: Netflix), and “The Morning Show” (Copyright: AppleTV)

Outstanding Drama Series: With Game of Thrones finally out of the running, we are looking at a guaranteed fresh winner in this category. Several can be written off right away. Given their numerous snubs across several major categories in which they have previously been nominated, it seems unlikely that AMC’s Better Call Saul, Netflix’s Stranger Things, or Hulu’s The Handmaid’s Tale has the support to win the top award for their latest seasons. Even though it did very well (actually, surprisingly and undeservingly well) in the nominations, the third season of BBCAmerica’s Killing Eve disappointed many and as such seems unlikely to score its first win in the category. Despite the buzz over its upcoming second season and its numerous wins in technical categories, it seems unlikely that Disney+’s The Mandalorian has the gravitas to win this category. That leaves us down to three series — Netflix’s The Crown and Ozark and HBO’s Succession. Although the two Netflix series have enormous buzz and pedigree (not to mention very strong third seasons for which they are nominated), it seems highly likely to me that HBO will win again for the beloved second season of Succession. Predicted Winner: Succession Most Likely to Upset: Ozark

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series: This category is totally and utterly insane. There are so many astounding lead dramatic actresses on television and streaming series that the following women couldn’t even score a nomination this year: previous winners in this category Viola Davis (for ABC’s How to Get Away with Murder), Elisabeth Moss (for Hulu’s The Handmaid’s Tale), and Claire Danes (for Showtime’s Homeland) and Oscar winners Nicole Kidman (reprising an Emmy winning role in HBO’s Big Little Lies) and Reese Witherspoon (who had not one but three major contending series this year). And it’s hard to argue with those they did nominate. Nevertheless, the overall lack of love for her series from the Emmys renders Zendaya unlikely to upset over such staggering competition for HBO’s Euphoria. And unfortunately, the most overdue nominee seems the least likely to win. Sandra Oh looks to wrap up the night a staggering 0-for-12, in large part due to the lack of quality material she got for the third season. Her co-star Jodie Comer (who upset her for the win last year) could repeat given her smartly chosen submission and increasingly high profile. But this year Comer has to face three heavyweight competitors. First there’s recent Best Actress Oscar winner Olivia Colman who took over the role of Queen Elizabeth II from Claire Foy (who won this category the last time Netflix’s The Crown was eligible). Second, there’s three-time Oscar nominee and four-time Emmy winner Laura Linney’s acclaimed work in Netflix’s Ozark. And, finally, there’s the Emmy-winning star of Friends Jennifer Aniston who played wildly against type on AppleTV’s heavily buzzed The Morning Show and already won a Screen Actors Guild Award for the role. It is honestly a complete toss-up between the three. Predicted Winner: Laura Linney, Ozark Most Likely to Upset: Jennifer Aniston, The Morning Show

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series: Although he is long overdue for a win and has a very strong submission, the combination of a sleazy character, a mixed critical reaction to his show, and grumbles about category placement almost ensure that Steve Carell ends up 0-for-11 at the Emmys after Sunday. It also seems unlikely that Sterling K. Brown wins again for NBC’s This is Us when he is on by far the least buzzy of the show’s represented in this category. Billy Porter could repeat for Fx’s Pose, but the fact that the Emmys largely turned a cold shoulder to the show’s second season isn’t particularly promising. This award is going to either Jason Bateman (who has several previous nominations and a win for directing just last year) or one of the Succession men. Conventional wisdom says that the Succession men will split the vote, paving the way for a Bateman win. But I think this category’s lack of a frontrunner and the overwhelming love for Succession is enough to push one of them to the top. I’m not sure which one it will be, but if I had to pick I would go to the more well-known Brian Cox. Predicted Winner: Brian Cox, Succession Most Likely to Upset: Jeremy Strong, Succession

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series: This is another astounding lineup. Laura Dern (HBO’s Big Little Lies), Samira Wiley (Hulu’s The Handmaid’s Tale), Thandie Newton (HBO’s Westworld), and Julia Garner (Netflix’s Ozark) brilliantly reprised roles that have already won them Emmys. Fiona Shaw’s ferocious work was the highlight of Killing Eve’s uneven third season. Meryl Streep’s show may have been scandalously overlooked in several major categories, but her performance was hugely acclaimed and she is after all the most awarded actress in history. And then there’s two first time nominees — Sarah Snook on HBO’s Succession and Helena Bonham Carter on Netflix’s The Crown. Although she only really had two showcases in The Crown’s third season, Carter was a force to be reckoned with and is a three-time prior nominee who has yet to win an Emmy. I think it’s hers to lose with Garner and Snook breathing down her neck. Predicted Winner: Helena Bonham Carter, The Crown Most Likely to Upset: Julia Garner, Ozark

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series: One of the hardest categories of the year to predict, this one has no obvious frontrunner. The relative lack of Emmy love for the third season of HBO’s Westworld and the fifth season of AMC’s Better Call Saul suggest that Jeffrey Wright and Giancarlo Esposito are unlikely to get their first wins for the series this year. It is certainly possible that one of the three Succession men nominated could win, with Matthew Macfayden having the slight edge over Kieran Culkin and Nicholas Braun. AppleTV’s The Morning Show also has two co-stars facing off here, with Mark Duplass and Billy Crudup both nominated. I suspect that this is a race between Crudup (even though I prefer Duplass’s performance over his) and Bradley Whitford (of Hulu’s The Handmaid’s Tale). Crudup won the Critics’ Choice Award for his role, is very well respected in the industry, and gives an admittedly electrifying performance. Whitford won in the guest actor category last year for this role and was chilling in his expanded presence on the show’s third season (not to mention that he’s a previous winner in this category for The West Wing). Predicted Winner: Billy Crudup, The Morning Show Most Likely to Upset: Bradley Whitford, The Handmaid’s Tale

Outstanding Writing in a Drama Series: This seems like a pretty clear win for Succession’s second season finale. Better Call Saul has never scored a major Emmy win and its two nominations here seem likely to cancel each other out. The same is likely to be the case for Ozark, which is represented three times here. Peter Morgan’s script for The Crown was rich in detail and incredibly moving, but many will see the episode as more of a directorial feat. It could upset, but I am pretty confident in betting on Succession. Predicted Winner: “This Is Not for Tears,” Succession Most Likely to Upset: “Aberfan,” The Crown.

Outstanding Directing in a Drama Series: This category contains two episodes of The Crown, two episodes of Ozark, two episodes of Succession, the series finale of Showtime’s Homeland, and the season finale of The Morning Show. Although I would love to see Lesli Linka Glatter get a long overdue directing win for Homeland or Mimi Leder return for the first time in 25 years (she won for directing a classic ER episode in 1995), I strongly suspect that this award is going to either go to The Crown’s “Aberfan” (a stunning hour that chronicles a Welsh mining tragedy that is a PR nightmare for the royal family) and Succession’s jaw-dropping season two finale “This is Not for Tears.” I suspect that Succession will get the edge in writing and the striking scope of The Crown will be rewarded here. Predicted Winner: “Aberfan,” The Crown Most Likely to Upset: “This Is Not for Tears,” Succession

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WINNER PREDICTIONS — COMEDY SERIES

Clockwise from top: “The Good Place” (Copyright: NBC), “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (Copyright: Amazon Prime), and “Dead to Me” (Copyright: Netflix)

Outstanding Comedy Series: One of the few certainties on Emmy night is that HBO’s Curb Your Enthusiasm will extend its run as the series with the most nominations in this category to never win. This its ninth nomination over ten seasons that have aired over the course of twenty years. Perhaps someday it will get its due, but with no other major nominations this year, it is definitely an also-ran. Equally unlikely is FX’s What We Do in the Shadows. The Fx horror/comedy mockumentary was a shocking inclusion on nomination day and is unlikely to have the widespread support for a win. That leaves six shows. There’s two second-year shows that under-performed during their first year only to make it into the top category this year — Netflix’s The Kominsky Method and Dead to Me. Both have undeniable pedigree (and a lot of marketing muscle from Netflix) but their relatively small nomination tallies suggest they are unlikely to claim victory. There’s also two shows nominated for their fourth seasons that have had spotty histories with the Emmys in the past —NBC’s The Good Place (which wrapped its run this year and scored its second consecutive nomination in the category) and HBO’s Insecure (which received its first nomination in this category despite some attention in other categories for its first three seasons). Both are critically adored hits with passionate fan bases and could upset. That leaves Amazon’s The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel vs. PopTV’s Schitt’s Creek. Maisel has won Outstanding Comedy Series before (two years ago), scored six acting wins over its first two seasons, and leads the nominations this year with a whopping 20. However, it was also its weakest season yet and there is plenty of time to continue rewarding it in the future. The opposite is true of Schitt’s Creek, which has never won an Emmy, had one of its best-reviewed seasons, and wrapped its run this year. It is a passionately adored pop culture phenomenon that has never won an Emmy. With a whopping 15 nominations this year (in comparison, it received four nominations for its first five seasons combined), Schitt’s Creek looks like it’s going to join the very small list of shows that won this category for their final season (The Mary Tyler Moore Show and Everybody Loves Raymond are the only other ones that have done this). Predicted Winner: Schitt’s Creek Most Likely to Upset: The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series: Any of these six brilliant women has a legitimate shot at the win. Tracee Ellis Ross’s show may be the least buzzy of the five represented here, but she has never won despite multiple nominations and recently signed a very high profile development deal (showing how respected she is in the industry). Christina Applegate and Linda Cardellini are two hugely respected actresses who are both brilliant on Netflix’s Dead to Me, a show that got much better in its second season. Rachel Brosnahan is a prior winner in the category for her role on Amazon’s The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, and she had some meaty material in the show’s ambitious third season. Issa Rae is a prior nominee for this role, is experiencing a great deal of buzz right now, and stars on a show that broke into the Outstanding Comedy Series race this year. But all five of them will likely be runners-up to the brilliant Catherine O’Hara whose instantly iconic performance as Moira Rose is universally beloved. It will not be lost on Emmy voters that this is their last chance to reward her for the role and that the comic genius only has a single Emmy (38 years ago for writing the Canadian sketch comedy SCTV). Predicted Winner: Catherine O’Hara, Schitt’s Creek Most Likely to Upset: Issa Rae, Insecure

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series: In sharp contrast to the Lead Actress category, this one appears to have three potential winners and three also-rans. Don Cheadle is a brilliant actor, but Showtime’s Black Monday has never generated significant buzz. Anthony Anderson has been nominated for ABC’s Black-ish multiple times without winning but his show’s best days are behind it. And if Oscar winner Michael Douglas couldn’t win for the buzzy first season of Netflix’s The Kominsky Method, it seems unlikely to me that he will take home the trophy for the more quietly received second season. That leaves three possibilities — recent breakout Ramy Youssef (for Hulu’s Ramy); television legend and previous Emmy winner Ted Danson (for NBC’s The Good Place); and Eugene Levy (for PopTV’s Schitt’s Creek), who like his on-screen wife only has a single Emmy for writing. I am in the minority that think the Emmys might spread the love and give it to Ted or Ramy, but I am not convinced enough to bet against the universally beloved Levy. Predicted Winner: Eugene Levy, Schitt’s Creek Most Likely to Upset: Ted Danson, The Good Place

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series: This category is stacked with talent. Betty Gilpin (Netflix’s GLOW) and Yvonne Orji (HBO’s Insecure) would have to pull off something akin to what Merritt Wever did the year she triumphed in this category for Nurse Jackie to overcome their higher-profile competitors. After a somewhat lackluster season, it seems unlikely that Kate McKinnon or Cecily Strong will win for NBC’s Saturday Night Live (although the show has done maddeningly well in the comedy acting categories in recent years, so it’s not wise to write them off too quickly). D’Arcy Carden is an industry favorite and her work on NBC’s The Good Place is astounding, but rewarding someone for a philosophical comedy in which she plays a robot slowly gaining sentient abilities seems like a stretch for the Emmys. Also unlikely is that Maisel’s Marin Hinkle will be able to compete with her brilliant steamroller of a co-star Alex Borstein, who has won this category the past two years. Despite her two prior wins, this Emmy is Borstein’s to lose as she continues to do brilliant work on the series. But she has to face off against Annie Murphy whose performance on Schitt’s Creek’s final season was a thing of absolute beauty. She would be a tremendously worthy winner. Predicted Winner: Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel Most Likely to Upset: Annie Murphy, Schitt’s Creek

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series: This is another talent-stacked category. Kenan Thompson scores his second nomination for Saturday Night Live. William Jackson Harper scores his first for his role on The Good Place. Then there’s two immensely well-respected dramatic actors who made history for being the only black men to win the Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series category — Sterling K. Brown (nominated for his glorified guest role on Maisel) and Andre Braugher (nominated for his role on Brooklyn Nine-Nine). Then there’s two Oscar winners for Best Supporting Actor — Mahershala Ali (who plays a sheikh on Ramy) and Alan Arkin (who plays Michael Douglas’s foil on The Kominsky Method). I suspect, however, that it will come down to Tony Shalhoub potentially scoring his fifth Emmy (and second consecutive in this category) for his work on Maisel or Dan Levy for his iconic, hilarious, and heartfelt work on Schitt’s Creek. The only reason I reluctantly give the slight edge to Shalhoub is because Levy is also the front runner to win in the writing, directing, and Outstanding Comedy Series categories and the Academy may wish to spread the wealth. Predicted Winner: Tony Shalhoub, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel Most Likely to Upset: Dan Levy, Schitt’s Creek

Outstanding Writing in a Comedy Series: The three episodes of What We Do in the Shadows seem likely to cancel each other out. The fact that The Great scored no major nominations outside of writing and directing is a major knock against its chances here. And if Schitt’s Creek wins this category it will be for the beautiful series finale, not the relatively uneventful other episode nominated from mid-season. It truly is down to the brilliant series finales of Schitt’s Creek and The Good Place. Call me crazy, but I think the sheer ambition (not to mention dramatic power) of The Good Place’s mind-blowing finale will give it the slight edge over Schitt’s, but either would be truly inspired and deserving winners. Predicted Winner: “Whenever You’re Ready,” The Good Place Most Likely to Upset: “Happy Ending,” Schitt’s Creek

Outstanding Directing in a Comedy Series: It seems unlikely that Modern Family or Will & Grace will win for their final seasons despite how beloved the shows and their nominated directors are. The Great simply doesn’t seem to have the support to take this one home. Ramy could certainly upset given the growing buzz for the show and the fact that the Emmys love when actors also write and direct. But I suspect this is between Amy Sherman-Palladino for Maisel or Andrew Cividino and Dan Levy for the beautiful Schitt’s finale. Predicted Winner: “Happy Ending,” Schitt’s Creek Most Likely to Upset: “It’s Comedy or Cabbage,” The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

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WINNER PREDICTIONS — LIMITED SERIES

Clockwise from top: Images from “Watchmen” (Copyright: HBO), “Mrs. America” (Copyright: Fx/Hulu), and “Bad Education” (Copyright: HBO)

Outstanding Limited Series: This remarkably strong lineup features five worthy nominees. The obvious choice here is HBO’s Watchmen, due to its extraordinary critical acclaim and its near-record haul of 26 Emmy nominations. But as good as the show was (and as likely as it is to win), I don’t think it’s the slam dunk that many are expecting. It is a remarkably weird series that is extremely difficult to understand for those not familiar with the source material. And Emmy voters aren’t particularly known for liking to work too hard or to go for very strange series. But what could possibly upset it? The best bets are Netflix’s massively acclaimed but curiously under-nominated Unbelievable and Fx on Hulu’s highly pedigreed period piece Mrs. America. Hulu’s Little Fires Everywhere and Netflix’s Unorthodox have their fare share of passionate supporters, but not enough to fight off their competitors. Predicted Winner: Watchmen Most Likely to Upset: Mrs. America

Outstanding Television Movie: With the made-for-television movie on the wane as an art form, this category tends to be among the weakest each year. This year is no exception, but the nominees are genuinely inspired. There’s the Netflix adaptation of the stage drama American Son, their interactive special that reunited the Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt game, an installment of their acclaimed anthology series based on the songs of Dolly Parton (Dolly Parton’s Heartstrings: These Old Bones), and their Breaking Bad sequel El Camino. The latter seems like a real contender — and it is — but I give the edge to HBO’s Bad Education. The Hugh Jackman-Allison Janney vehicle got strong reviews and feels like the type of film that used to win this category all the time. Predicted Winner: Bad Education Most Likely to Upset: El Camino [Note: This award is being presented off the main telecast on the final night of the Creative Arts Emmys on Saturday.]

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series: Only a fool would bet against Regina King. Watchmen scored a near-record number of nominations and King is a recent Oscar winner who has won three previous Emmys for projects far less esteemed. It’s hers to lose. However, if a majority of voters are confused by or have trouble warming up to Watchmen (as I suspect may be the case) that could be a window of opportunity for a Cate Blanchett upset. In any other year, the two-time Oscar winning actress would be a clear frontrunner for her portrayal of the controversial Phyllis Schlafly in Mrs. America. The other three have little shot, which means that Kerry Washington (Little Fires Everywhere), Octavia Spencer (Self Made), and Shira Haas (Unorhtodox) won’t be taking home their first acting Emmys on Sunday. Predicted Winner: Regina King, Watchmen Most Likely to Upset: Cate Blanchett, Mrs. America

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series: This one is a real head scratcher. My logical mind tells me to go with Jeremy Irons, as the previous Oscar and Emmy winner is nominated for the widely adored Watchmen. But his plot line on the show was by far the hardest to understand and connect with and — in my opinion — didn’t give him nearly the meaty material that his competitors in this category got. But who has the power to overcome him? Perhaps Mark Ruffalo for playing twins in HBO’s I Know This Much is True. It is certainly awards-baity but the show’s lack of nominations in other categories is concerning. Ditto for hot upstart Paul Mescal, whose work in Hulu’s Normal People was universally acclaimed. Then there’s Jeremy Pope, who was regarded as the best thing about Ryan Murphy’s revisionist history Netflix misfire Hollywood. And finally there’s big screen and Broadway star Hugh Jackman’s blistering turn as a corrupt superintendent in the sole television movie represented in this category (HBO’s Bad Education). It’s anyone’s guess, but I am expecting Ruffalo to lead with Jackman close behind. Predicted Winner: Mark Ruffalo, I Know This Much Is True Most Likely to Upset: Hugh Jackman, Bad Education

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series: This line-up features an incredible array of gifted actresses. Conventional wisdom says that with no clear standout among them, the three nominated stars of Mrs. America will cancel each other out. (However, Margo Martindale, Uzo Aduba, and Tracey Ullman combined have 11 Emmy wins so ruling any of them out completely is foolish.) Holland Taylor could add a second Emmy to her mantle for Hollywood, but it seems unlikely that she will be able to overcome this fierce competition with a tepidly received show. That leaves Jean Smart, a three-time Emmy winner who is up for Watchmen, and Toni Collette, an Emmy winner and Oscar nominee who is up for Unbelievable. My gut tells me that Collette will upset, but it’s not a strong enough feeling for me to bet against the formidable Watchmen/Jean Smart combo. Predicted Winner: Jean Smart, Watchmen Most Likely to Upset: Toni Collette, Unbelievable

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series: With the possible exception of a Schitt’s Creek sweep, nothing would bring me greater joy than Tituss Burgess finally getting his overdue Emmy for the role of Titus Andromedon and getting it for the deliriously amusing and clever “choose your own adventure” style epilogue to Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt. But, sadly, I think it will go to one of the more traditional contenders. I wasn’t particularly blown away by any of the Watchmen nominees although all have their merits — Louis Gossett Jr. is an Oscar-winning icon, Jovan Adepo had a particularly strong showcase episode, and Yahya Abdul-Mateen II played the series most important role and is a star on the rise. Then there’s Dylan McDermott and Jim Parsons for Hollywood. The latter was particularly critically acclaimed and is the only one I think can upset Yahya. Predicted Winner: Jim Parsons, Hollywood Most Likely to Upset: Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Watchmen

Outstanding Writing in a Limited Series: It would be hard to argue with the validity of a writing win for any of the nominated series, as Mrs. America, Normal People, Unbelievable, Unorthodox, and Watchmen were all terrifically well-written. However, I think this one easily goes to Watchmen for their ambitious adaptation/socially conscious update of an iconic graphic novel. As deserving as their win would be, it will be a bit of a shame to see a man add to his Emmy collection over four female writers/writer teams (a first for Emmy). Predicted Winner: “This Extraordinary Being,” Watchmen Most Likely to Upset: “Episode 1,” Unbelievable

Outstanding Directing in a Limited Series: Unlike the writing category where Watchmen has a sole nomination, here they have three episodes competing against each other. I still think it will win (probably with Nicole Kassell taking it), but if they split the vote Normal People, Little Fires Everywhere, or Unorthodox could triumph. If there is an upset, my vote is on the latter, which rose above several higher-profile limited series to score major nominations this year and seems unlikely to win elsewhere. Predicted Winner: “It’s Summer and We’re Running Out of Ice,” Watchmen Most Likely to Upset: Unorthodox

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WINNER PREDICTIONS — REALITY AND VARIETY SERIES

Image of Emmys Host Jimmy Kimmel (Copyright: ABC)

Outstanding Competition Program: If The Masked Singer wins, it will be perfectly in fitting with this dumpster fire of a year. However, I suspect that instead it will go to one of two previous winners — RuPaul’s Drag Race or Top Chef. My money is on RuPaul. Predicted Winner: RuPaul’s Drag Race Most Likely to Upset: Top Chef

Outstanding Variety Talk Series: Jimmy Kimmel, James Corden, Trevor Noah, Samantha Bee, and Stephen Colbert face off again just as they did last year. There has been some momentum building around Trevor Noah, James Corden is an Emmy fave, Samantha Bee is overdue, and Jimmy Kimmel is the host of the Emmys, but despite all this I expect John Oliver to win his fifth consecutive trophy. Predicted Winner: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver Most Likely to Upset: The Daily Show with Trevor Noah

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