Conflict rages in Nagorno-Karabakh as regional powers offer strategic support
By: Sonikka Loganathan
Tags: History, Civilian Casualties, Nagorno Karabakh, War, International Relations

One war, several players

Shortly after the Sept. 27 strikes, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced Turkey would support Azerbaijan in its “battle against invasion and cruelty.” Turkey’s goal is to expand influence by defeating Armenia and allowing Azerbaijan to compete with Russia and Iran by dominating the Southern Caucasus. Azeris and Turks share ethnic Turkic bonds and declare themselves to be “two states, one nation.” To some, Turkey’s support of the Azeri campaign invokes memories of the Armenian Genocide, which Turkey officially denies. Ankara denies direct involvement but reports show Turkey supplying “weapons and training to Azerbaijan,” including armed drones. Most notably is the deployment of about 1,500 Syrian mercenaries to the region, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a UK-based monitoring group. This strategy is also seen in Libya’s civil war, where Turkey sent Syrian fighters and military capabilities to the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord, which opposes Russian backed rebel forces.

Deploying Syrians in a developing proxy war has drawn concern from the Caucasus southern neighbor, Iran. When a stray missile hit a village along the border, Tehran warned both Azeri and Armenian governments to control the situation or face retaliatory measures. But Iran’s stakes are greater than conflict spillover. Iran has a minority Armenian population but is home to more ethnic Azeris than Azerbaijan itself. Shared ethnic and religious bonds have Iran’s Azeris outspokenly supporting Azerbaijan, worrying Tehran about Baku’s influence over its people. Matters are further complicated by Tehran’s stance in Syria: Iran and Russia support Assad whereas Turkey supports rebel militias. The influx of Syrian rebels turned Turkish soldiers along the border augment Iran’s concerns. President Hassan Rouhani warned, “Iran will not allow anyone, on some pretext, to bring terrorists that Iran has fought for years to our border.” It’s unclear where Tehran’s support lies. Iran supports Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity but reports, which Iran denies, claim Iran is supplying Armenia with military assistance as videos of trucks transporting equipment between the two countries appeared online.

We heard explosions and arrived 20 minutes after the Azeri artillery struck this site, a hardware store. Attacking of civilian infrastructure continues in Stepanakert. Image and caption courtesy: @avarathewanderer

Russia maintains a largely neutral role in the conflict. It was able to hold ceasefire talks, a task the Minsk Group (made up of Russia, France, and the U.S.) was tasked with and unsuccessful in. Despite having a protective military alliance with Armenia, Russia continues supplying arms to both states. Russia plans to uphold the alliance, but Moscow emphasized those protections don’t trickle into Azerbaijani territory. Notably, Russia condemned Turkey’s use of foreign fighters, warning that terrorists from the Middle East could infiltrate Nagorno-Karabakh. Escalation or de-escalation efforts largely depend on the Kremlin.

Nelson, a war veteran who served in the first war in the early 90s for the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh.

He told me the first war was a game and they walked through it easy. He now says the game is tougher.

4 homes were destroyed by a ball bearing missile but luckily no casualties as they already fled but the damage is extensive. Image and caption courtesy: @avarathewanderer

Then there’s Israel and the United States. Israel fosters an increasingly strong bond with Azerbaijan, maintained by reliance on security and energy supply. “60% of Azerbaijan’s arms procurement comes from Israel,” reports Axios, “while a large portion of Israel’s oil supply comes from Azerbaijan.” Israel could instigate Iran to thwart Israeli influence by seizing this opportunity to supply weapons. The U.S., which is often seen mediating such conflict, is taking a light-handed approach. “We’re discouraging internationalization of this,” said Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. “We think outsiders ought to stay out. We’re urging a ceasefire.” Furthermore, the U.S. and Azerbaijan maintain bilateral economic relations, particularly with energy production. According to the State Department, crude oil is the largest import from Azerbaijan to the U.S.; American companies are involved in Azeri offshore oil development projects; the U.S. exports aircraft and heavy machinery to Azerbaijan. This expanded “flow of energy,” from Azerbaijan to Europe via the Caspian Sea is “vital to America’s geopolitical interests,” writes Samuel Ramani, “because a stable Caspian Sea energy trade dilutes Europe’s dependence on Russian gas and restricts Iranian influence, thereby strengthening U.S. allies relative to its long-standing adversaries.”