Should Vettel be considered an F1 great and was his time at Ferrari a failure?
By: James Smith
Tags: Sports Journalism, Formula 1, Sports Analytics, Sebastian Vettel, Ferrari

Comparing Vettel’s Red Bull & Ferrari careers

At a high level, Vettel’s performance with Ferrari and Red Bull was very similar.

When we aggregate the data to compare Vettel’s performance at Ferrari and Red Bull, there is very little between them. At the highest level, across all races, Vettel’s average finishing position is just 0.1 places higher at Ferrari than at Red Bull. Taking the median provides a very similar story; Vettel’s median finishing position at Ferrari & Red Bull was 3rd place.

Stepping down a level to assess the results at a seasonal level illustrates a little more variation, but paints a similar picture again. In fact, Vettel’s average finishing position with Ferrari in 2015, 2017 and 2018 was lower than in two of his World Title winning seasons at Red Bull (2010 & 2012). In 2017 and 2018 Vettel’s end of season points totals were also considerably higher than in 2010 and 2012.

It isn’t until you dig deeper into the individual results that differences begin to emerge. In all but the 2014 season, Vettel’s most frequent finishing position was 1st. This only happened once at Ferrari, in 2018. The remainder of his Ferrari results per season were clustered around 2nd, 3rd and 4th positions. These are undoubtedly still an impressive set of results, but the lack of 1st place finishes makes a huge impact on Vettel’s ultimate success with Ferrari.

The shape of Vettel’s results: a histogram per season shows more 1st place finishes at Red Bull and more lower points finishes at Ferrari.

Firstly, in a sport where race wins is a metric by which drivers are compared to one another, anything other than 1st place is a failure. Put eloquently by Senna; ‘being second is to be the first of the ones who lose’. What’s more, F1 stats are limited by the number of races per season. In Football or Rugby there might be 40–50 games in a season, plus international fixtures, whereas F1 drivers have a maximum of 20–22 races per season to secure victories.

Secondly, and more impactful to his Title challenges, is the incentive placed on first place by the FIA’s point allocation system. 25 points is granted for a win, 7 more than for 2nd place. The gap from second to third is 3 points, the same for 3rd to 4th, and the gaps decrease thereafter. If points decreased in a linear manner, multiple 2nd & 3rd finishes wouldn’t have been such bad news for Vettel, but the scale of the diminishing returns from a single place drop gives race wins that extra importance. As a result, Vettel’s clustering of non-winning podium finishes during his Ferrari days seriously inhibited his ability to add to his World Title haul.

To understand why Vettel was unable to convert more of his podium finishes to race wins, we can descend a further level of granularity to race level. Was it Vettel that was responsible for failing to win races, or was the Ferrari package simply not competitive when it needed to be in the battle against Mercedes supremacy?

Ferrari points total vs eventual winners (in this case Mercedes in all 5 years).

Based on the Constructor standings (the summation of the points from all drivers within a team), Ferrari were not close to challenging the eventual winners in 2015, 2016 and 2019 (Mercedes were champions in all 5 years). In 2017 & 2018, however, the gap was considerably smaller, suggesting that Ferrari as a team were closer to Mercedes in terms of performance.

In both these years, Vettel finished as runner up in the Championship and achieved 5 race victories. Both seasons also started strongly, with Vettel leading the championship for much of the first half of the seasons. On both occasions, however, he let the lead slip away through a string of low finishes in the mid to back end of the season.

In Vettel’s defence, some of these low finishes were due to engineering issues. A late puncture at the British GP, followed by a turbo issue in Malaysia and a faulty spark plug in Japan all caused Vettel to lose positions and points. At the same time, driver errors and frustrations crept into his racing, that weren’t as prevalent in his time with Red Bull.

Moving average of finishing position: Vettel’s title challenges with Ferrari in 2017 & 2018 unravelled in the mid part of the season.

In 2017, Vettel’s problems began in Azerbaijan, where he was guilty of shunting Hamilton under safety car conditions, claiming that the Brit was ‘brake testing’ him. Telemetry data from Hamilton’s car showed that this was not the case. In Singapore, Vettel tangled with Raikkonen and Verstappen off the line, leading to Ferrari’s first ever double retirement on the first lap of a race.

2018 was meant to be the season that the Ferrari package was finally a match for Mercedes. Ferrari & Vettel led both championships at the half way stage, but again driver and team conspired to throw the lead away. Vettel was leading the German Grand Prix, closing in on victory at his home race, when he spun off into the barriers and ended his race. In Monza, Vettel made clashed with Hamilton and spun again, dropping to 18th place on the opening lap.

Cumulative points per season for Hamilton (teal) and Vettel (red). In 2017 & 2018 Vettel’s title challenge unravelled after the mid point in the season.

While Ferrari’s reliability and strategy calls have not always been as well executed as at Mercedes, the series of unforced errors in qualifying and on race day became the pattern of Vettel’s races. His truly great performances became few and far between (though did not disappear entirely, Spa 2018 was a victory reminiscent of his Red Bull days).

It’s difficult to say where Vettel would have finished in the 2017 & 2018 seasons had they not been tarnished by the team and driver mistakes. Both parties must take some responsibility in their failure to deliver either a Drivers or Constructors World Championship in their time together, but Vettel’s responsibility as lead driver and a 4-time World Champion was to deliver mistake free performances and to lead the team by example. In this respect his time at Ferrari cannot be considered a success.

By the 2019 season, Vettel’s relationship with Ferrari was beginning to feel strained. The excuses and apologies were running dry and there was an aura of exhaustion surrounding the pair. To add to this, there was a new kid on the block who was starting to make a name for himself and attract the attention of Ferrari’s Tifosi.

One element that may have accelerated Vettel’s departure from Ferrari was the arrival of Charles Leclerc. It becomes apparent when placing Vettel’s careers with Red Bull & Ferrari next to each other that the German prefers a certain team dynamic.