Twenty-Five Years Later, the American Mission in Bosnia is not Done
By: Alex Bliss
Tags: Biden, Foreign Policy, Politics, Europe, Bosnia

Twenty-Five Years Later, the American Mission in Bosnia is not Done

December 14th marked the twenty-fifth anniversary of the signing of the Dayton Peace Agreement, which marked the end of the Bosnian War, and the dawn of another post-Yugoslavia sovereign state in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

The war in Bosnia, as part of the greater breakup of Yugoslavia, was a gruesome display of the hatred humanity can show towards one another over nearly four years. The violence in areas like Prijedor, the Drina Valley, and Srebrenica approached the ferocity of World War II and shattered any idea of a peaceful end to the Cold War. The human cost was unthinkable: over 100,000 dead, up to 50,000 victims of war rape, and roughly 2–2.5 million people were forcibly displaced.

A quarter-century later, Bosnia has come a long way from many of the scars of war: millions of tourists visit each year, socioeconomic factors like infrastructure development and the standard of living continue to slowly improve, and governance remains stable — albeit dysfunctional. Most importantly, Bosnian people, although not universally, see themselves as neighbors and compatriots again, echoing the Tito-era “brotherhood and unity” message, and seeking to move past the ethnic ultranationalism that brought the region to conflict.

Unfortunately, the political class presiding over the Federation and Republika Srpska — the two separate entities within Bosnia created at Dayton — fails to share the same aspirations. This dichotomy not only showcases a human rights failure, with Bosnian citizens the victim, but it also continues to threaten integration with Europe and the West.

The most recent squabble was when Bosnia’s Muslim and Croat members of the Presidency boycotted a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov amid NATO membership differences and a ‘disrespect’ for the greater state by meeting in Republika Srpska, instead of Sarajevo. Milorad Dodik, the Serb member of the Presidency and sole representative to meet with Lavrov, represents a continuation of the same Serbian nationalism ideals held by Milošević and Karadžić — notably, a denial of genocide at Srebrenica and multiple calls for Republika Srpska to secede from Bosnia.

Dodik is against Bosnian ascension into NATO, and his desires for secession are undeniably the opposite of the pan-Europeanism ideals held by figures such as Merkel and Macron. He is yet another example of the strongman identity that Trump favors, similar to Vučić in Serbia or Orbán in Hungary. It is no coincidence that the Trump administration has fractured and disincentivized relationships with traditional allies and attempted to replace them with nationalists like himself in search of a conservative, inward-looking world order, and doing so has reversed years of democratic progress in vulnerable regions like the Balkans.

Secession and the subsequent creation of a unified Serb state is not only anti-European, but also a human rights threat requiring a strong, collective response. Milošević’s “Greater Serbia” ideal was the overarching reason behind massacres of thousands of innocent Bosniaks, Croats, and Albanians (in Kosovo) in an effort to cleanse areas of non-Serbs, and Dodik’s continued support of this is reprehensible.

Unfortunately, the Trump administration has effectively disengaged in Bosnia, and a lack of punishment or collective rebuke from Washington only enables further nationalistic vitriol and actions going forward. Previous presidential administrations were key believers in transitional justice through the ICTY and supporters of policy goals like capacity building, support for institutions, and greater integration throughout Southeast Europe. While civil servants, NGO’s, and think tanks continue to actively seek cooperation and development in Bosnia, the indifference held by the White House blocks meaningful growth. People throughout local communities are united in wanting to move on from the war and secure a better future, but they are jointly let down by national politicians who stoke the flames of ethnic tension, and by other governments who turn away when they are needed most.

The incoming Biden administration has work to do on the global stage; and it should begin with rebuilding relationships with our long-term allies in NATO. Although Bosnia and Herzegovina is not an alliance member yet, both local communities and all levels of government would benefit from enlargement. Integration into NATO — and eventually, the EU — brings benefits of infrastructure dollars, collective security, greater economic opportunities, and reduced barriers to trade and tourism, amongst many others, and it was a path to transatlantic success for decades following World War II. Geopolitically, it remains an opportunity to strengthen an alliance structure against ever-present adversaries in Russia and China, who continue to make inroads into the region through projects like the BRI or arms sales.

Beyond supporting integration, President-Elect Biden needs to deliver forceful rebukes against the authoritarianism and burgeoning radical nationalism that continues to spread in Bosnia and throughout the Balkans in an effort to show support for local communities and restore a human rights-focused message that disappeared under the Trump administration. Doing so will communicate a return to the institutional norms of prior decades while also reminding citizens throughout Europe that transatlantic cooperation, the guarantee of universal human rights, and the reinforcement of rule of law is critical towards self-determination and expanding democratic governance.