Conversion Metrics are Magical Thinking
By: Jeremy M
Tags: Content Marketing, Blogging, Digital Marketing, Business, Business Strategy

You never count the customers you piss off, and that’s a mistake.

A lot of online businesses seem to focus on conversion-based metrics: readers who become subscribers who become buyers, and the A/B tests that validate those figures. They count the people who pass through each gate and optimize in order to increase the number each time.

But nobody counts the people who not only don’t pass through the gates but never will, or who actively prevent others from passing through. Conversion metrics don’t count the people you piss off, turn off, or turn against you.

This is the only conceivable reason pop-up windows and lightboxes are still a thing. Smart people have argued, reasonably, that pop-ups increase the number of people who progress through different gates (opt in to an email list, sign up for a newsletter, get a bonus, etc.). Of course they do, because something always works better than nothing, and something aggressive usually works better than something passive (like a little sign-up box in the corner).

What these metrics fail to count is that people hate pop-ups. They really do. And the people who advocate for using these metrics have never done the research to quantify how many hate them — and that’s irresponsible. How can you advocate for a tactic, only extol the benefits, and not do any research into the disadvantage?

(N.B.: This pairs well with Paul Jarvis’s article about why he doesn’t want to be a growth-hacker. Spoiler: “We should just call growth-hacking what it really is: being a self-centred, self-serving and fake-ass person on the internet.”)

Conversion metrics are based on only a fraction of the data: you only find out who likes you. You never quantify how many people think you’re an asshole and will never do business with you again. They get lumped in with the unwashed apathetic who just don’t care about you.

“But that’s so hard to find out! You couldn’t quantify that because there’s no data.”

I bet you there is. For every 10 people who leave your site because of something dumb like a pop-up, at least 1 will send a note. You might think they’re a “hater.”

There’s a significant chance that many people who like pop-ups think they work because they want them to work (for them). Consider the role of self-interest and, anecdotally, how you treat pop-ups: Do you ever make use of pop-ups? How frequently do you just try to find a way to get rid of them? Do you have an ad-blocker on your browser or mobile? If you hate the pop-ups you come across but but magically think they’re okay on your site, then your self-interest is leading you into a double standard. Once self-interest is taken out of the equation, it’s fairly obvious pop-ups are a sure loser.

“But I’m fine with appealing just to people who like me. I don’t need everyone to like me.”

Fair. But consider that you’re also making the Internet a worse place. When you insist on doing something nobody likes, it makes you an asshole, not a savant.

“But people appreciate being given an opportunity to enjoy my stunning content!”

Then let them read it. Don’t cover it up.

Also, they really probably don’t: the whole point of the pop-up is that you haven’t proven your content to be of value yet. If you had, then the passive sign-up box in the corner would work just fine. You have to interrupt the reader in order to get them to sign up without having fully read your content. That isn’t persuasion, it’s trickery. You aren’t giving the reader anything of value yet in return for their email address — and in your heart of hearts you know that.

Why does it matter whether you count — or at least attempt to minimize — the number of people you piss off?

If you have to ask a question like that in sincerity, then you shouldn’t think of yourself as an ethical business person adding value to the world. You can’t claim to be “making the world a better place” when you’re actively putting your head in the sand about how you’re making it worse. (And no, your content doesn’t outweigh that.) The point of “adding value” is that you recognize and minimize the ways you subtract value.