College Football Bowl Game Picks — 12/22
By: Matt Morley
Tags: College Football, Football, Sports Betting, Sports, NCAAF

Introduction

In my CFB Week 16 picks I finished with a less than desirable record of 10–13–1. I picked Iowa State +6 against Oklahoma and they lost by 6, so that gives me the one tie. Now I take a look at the bowl games and try to predict the outcome which may be difficult given the amount of opt-outs we’re seeing across the country. I’m not including the Appalachian State vs. North Texas game as I am writing this while that game is being played. Appalachian State should not lose this game though as North Texas’ best player, wide receiver Jaelon Darden, opted out of this game to prepare for the NFL draft. Let’s see how the other match-ups look.

December 22, 2020

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl — Tulane (-2.5) vs. Nevada — O/U 57

Analysis: Tulane put together a strong season in what I believe to be a heavily disrespected conference that is the AAC. They’re winners of four of their last five games and their only loss came in double overtime to a very good Tulsa team. Nevada has two losses on the year and one of them was to a very average Hawai’i team. I think this game is competitive, but Tulane wins by nearly a touchdown and covers the spread. I’m predicting a final of 34–28.

The pick: Tulane (-2.5), Over 57

Boca Raton Bowl — UCF vs. No. 16 BYU (-6.5) — O/U 75

Analysis: This bowl game should be fun as both offenses are capable of scoring a lot of points. It’s hard to have an over/under higher than 75 but I think the over is pretty safe in this one. The quarterback play is what I’m most excited for as BYU’s Zach Wilson is a potential first round selection in this upcoming draft and Dillon Gabriel has been lighting up the stat sheet since he’s been the starter for the Knights. I think I have a bit of bias in this one as I’m a recent graduate from UCF, but I have the UCF Knights winning this shootout by a score of 52–45. AAC dominance, I guess.

The pick: UCF (+6.5), Over 75

December 23, 2020

New Orleans Bowl — Louisiana Tech vs. Ga Southern (-5.5) — O/U 48.5

Analysis: This game is one I probably won’t watch even if I have free time whenever it’s on. I truly don’t care too much about either of these teams, nor do I know much about these teams. I do know that LA tech is hot as good as they were in years past, but still good enough to make a bowl game. Georgia Southern had a solid year and I think they put up points on LA Tech and LA Tech struggles to keep up. I’m feeling a final score of 31–13 in favor of the Eagles.

The pick: Ga Southern (-5.5), Under 48.5

Montgomery Bowl — Memphis (-8) vs. FAU — O/U 50

Analysis: I know that Memphis lost their head coach this year and a lot of talent on offense, but they still had a fine year finishing 7–3. FAU is in a similar boat losing Lane Kiffin to Ole Miss and talent on the offensive side of the ball. I feel like this game has the potential to be boring due to Memphis running away with it early on. They just seem like the better team in most aspects and I would be very surprised if FAU keeps this close. I’m predicting a final of 38–14.

The pick: Memphis (-8), Over 50

December 24, 2020

New Mexico Bowl — Hawai’i vs. Houston (-13) — O/U 59.5

Analysis: I stated earlier in my Nevada vs Tulane prediction that Hawai’i is very average. Houston is not very average, because they’re not really good. Their best win of the year was against Tulane and have not shown me enough to be convinced they are one of the better teams in the AAC. I think this game comes down to who wants to win more and I think that team is Hawai’i. I’m predicting a final of 28–27 in favor of the Rainbow Warriors.

The pick: Hawai’i (+13), Under 59.5

December 25, 2020

Camellia Bowl — Marshall vs. Buffalo (-3) — O/U 53.5

Analysis: This game features a couple of young stars for two unlikely teams. The quarterback for Marshall, Grant Wells, started getting national attention when he led the Thundering Herd to a 7–0 start. Wells has not looked too good in his last two games, but faces a Buffalo defense that just gave up 38 points to Ball State. The Bulls are led by their breakout running back, Jaret Patterson, who has put up one of the best college football seasons for a running back I’ve ever seen. He had EIGHT rushing touchdowns against Kent State. That’s mind boggling in it’s own. I think this game should be close, and competitive, but I think Grant Wells and Marshall find a way to come out on top in this one by a final score of 28–24 in favor of the Thundering Herd.

The pick: Marshall (+3), Under 53.5

December 26, 2020

Cure Bowl — Liberty vs. No. 12 Coastal Carolina (-6.5) — O/U 59.5

Analysis: This is another bowl game featuring two small school teams that has the potential to be one hell of a football game. Coastal Carolina has been proving all of the critics wrong all year and finished the regular season undefeated for the beat single season in school history. Liberty is no easy opponent, however, as they’re coached by Huge Freeze and bolstered a record of 9–1 this year. Liberty has not played a game in about a month by the time this one kicks off, so they may be a little rusty, but I think they find a way to pull off the upset and win this game in a shootout, 42–38. The experience of Coach Freeze will come in handy in this one.

The pick: Liberty (+6.5), Over 59.5

Gasparilla Bowl — South Carolina vs. UAB (-6.5) — O/U 47

Analysis: They’re letting just about anyone into a bowl game this year because South Carolina has no business playing in this game. UAB is fresh off a great win against a good Marshall team and this program has come a long way in the last couple of years. These kids from UAB always have a lot to play for and they are going to want to win this game a lot more than the Gamecocks. I think South Carolina comes out flat and never makes this game competitive as UAB finds themselves victorious against an SEC opponent. My final score prediction is 24–10, UAB.

The pick: UAB (-6.5), Under 47

First Responder Bowl — No. 19 Louisiana (-13) vs. UTSA — O/U 57.5

Analysis: The Ragin’ Cajuns are back in the top 25 again this year and that’s thanks in large part to their balanced offensive attack and potent defense. They face off against a UTSA team that had an impressive year finishing at 7–4. I think the Ragin’ Cajuns stop the rushing attack of UTSA and win this one easily by a final score of 34–10.

The pick: Louisiana (-13), Under 57.5

LendingTree Bowl — W Kentucky vs. GA State (-4.5) — O/U 52.5

Analysis: This is another bowl game I probably won’t watch even if I have nothing else going on while they’re playing. I don’t really care for either of these teams and know close to nothing about them. Hopefully both schools are able to profit from this game and get some money to help their programs, but I don’t expect this to be a great football game to watch. I’m just going to guess this one finishes with a final score of 24–13 in favor of Georgia State, but who knows.

The pick: GA State (-4.5), Under 52.5

December 29, 2020

Cheez-It Bowl — No. 21 Oklahoma St (-2) vs. No. 18 Miami — O/U 58.5

Analysis: This is an interesting game to me as both teams are frustrating to watch because they can be so much better than they actually are. Oklahoma State is one good quarterback and a whole defense away from being a pretty good football team, and Miami just needs to find a way to play defense this year and let D’Eriq King do the work on offense. I think Miami is the better football team and I’m a bit surprised Oklahoma State is favored in this one. I’ll be betting Miami with the points and I have them ultimately winning by a final score of 34–24.

The pick: Miami +2, Under 58.5

Alamo Bowl — No. 20 Texas (-13) vs. Colorado — O/U 63.5

Analysis: Texas can’t seem to find a way to get back to their glory days as they just keep finding a way to lose games every year. They have a lot of problems to address going forward and I don’t think they’re going to be really good for a while. They really could use the help of Urban Meyer to turn this program around. For the meantime, they play a much lesser opponent in Colorado for their bowl game as I don’t think Colorado is very good at all. This game will probably be pretty boring, but I have Texas winning 28–20. Colorado probably scores late to cover and piss off every Texas fan that stupidly continues to bet on their team.

The pick: Colorado (+13), Under 63.5

December 30, 2020

Duke’s Mayo Bowl — Wake Forest vs. Wisconsin (-6.5) — O/U 53

Analysis: Wisconsin had America believing they were the next big thing when they destroyed Michigan over a month ago. They would then lose three straight and barely escape Minnesota in an overtime win last week. I think Graham Mertz finds a way to get going against a vulnerable Wake Forest defense and Wisconsin’s defense finds a way to stop Wake Forest’s offense. I predict a final of 27–13 in favor of the Badgers.

The pick: Wisconsin (-6.5), under 53

Music City Bowl — No. 15 Iowa (-15) vs. Missouri — O/U 50.5

Analysis: This matchup feels a bit disrespectful to Iowa as they are playing a Missouri team that was average this year, at best. Iowa put together a fine season and relies heavily on their “bend, don’t break” defense to keep them close in every game. Though their offense is less than stellar, Missouri isn’t exactly great on defense and I think Iowa’s defense holds Missouri to 10 points. Iowa wins this one, 24–10. The spread on this one favors Missouri, though, because this game should be pretty low scoring and 15 points is a lot, so keep that in mind.

The pick: Missouri (+15), Under 50.5

Cotton Bowl — No. 7 Florida (-3) vs. No. 6 Oklahoma — O/U 72

Analysis: Florida played Alabama tough in the SEC Championship game, but fell short and missed out on their chances at sneaking into the CFP. Oklahoma handled business against Iowa State and looked phenomenal in the first half, but nearly choked the game away in the second half. Florida is favored by three points in this contest but I think they are a much better team. Oklahoma’s defense is nothing spectacular and Florida’s offense should have no problem putting up points on them. I don’t think Oklahoma can keep up and the Gators run away with this one, 52–38.

The pick: Florida (-3), Over 72

December 31, 2020

Armed Forces Bowl — No. 24 Tulsa (-2.5) vs. Mississippi St — O/U 50

Analysis: Tulsa nearly pulled off the upset against Cincinnati in the AAC championship game, but fell short at the end. They now get to play an SEC team in Mississippi State that struggled to find their groove this season. They looked stellar in their first game and haven’t done much to impress since. However, they’re coming off a dominant win against Missouri that surprised me, so this game might be close. I think Tulsa finds a way to keep up with Mississippi State’s offense and comes out on top in a close one, winning 34–31.

The pick: Tulsa (-2.5), Over 50

Arizona Bowl — Ball State vs. No. 22 San Jose State (-7.5) — O/U 62.5

Analysis: Ball State surprised me against Buffalo. I didn’t think their defense could contain the rushing attack of the Bulls, but they did, and won that game comfortably. They now play a red hot San Jose State team that is putting together their best game in program history. I think San Jose State is motivated to solidify this year as the best in school history and they win this game comfortably, 31–17.

The pick: San Jose State (-7.5), Under 62.5

Liberty Bowl — West Virginia vs. Army — O/U

Analysis: This game was scheduled late as Tennessee had a COVID-19 outbreak, so Army slid into their spot to play West Virginia. At the time of this article being written, there is no spread or over/under to bet on. I think West Virginia wins this game by a score of 31–12

The pick: West Virginia

Texas Bowl — Arkansas vs. TCU (-5.5) — O/U 58

Analysis: Arkansas and Felipe Franks take on Max Duggan and TCU in the Texas bowl this year in what is an intriguing matchup. TCU is inconsistent and has a couple of big wins including a win over Oklahoma State, but a bad loss in a poor showing against West Virginia. I think this game is close and I like taking Arkansas with the points. I’m predicting a TCU win, 34–30, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Arkansas pulls off the upset.

The pick: Arkansas (+5.5), Over 58

January 1, 2021

Peach Bowl — No. 9 Georgia (-7) vs. No. 8 Cincinnati — O/U 50.5

Analysis: Kicking off the new year is a great showdown between undefeated Cincinnati and the Georgia Bulldogs. Cincinnati wanted a chance to compete in the CFP this year, but barely scraped by Tulsa in the AAC championship game and I think that hurt their chances. Georgia put together a solid year despite some injuries holding them back, but didn’t do much to stand out in the SEC. This game should be close and competitive, but I think Cincinnati comes into this game with a chip on their shoulder and pulls off the “upset,” winning 24–20.

The pick: Cincinnati (+7), under 50.5

Citrus Bowl — Auburn vs. No. 14 Northwestern (-3.5) — O/U 43.5

Analysis: Bo Nix still hasn’t shown me why he is hyped up so much by the media. He’s a good football player, I can see that, but he is not what I believe to be a future NFL quarterback. They’re matched up against a Northwestern team that almost pulled off the upset of Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game. I think Northwestern’s defense is legit and limits Auburn to just six total points. My prediction for the final is 17–6 in favor of Northwestern.

The pick: Northwestern (-3.5), Under 43.5

Rose Bowl (CFP Semi Final) — No. 4 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Alabama (-19.5) — O/U 65.5

Analysis: Now we get to the fun games. The CFP this year has sparked a plethora of debate, and for good reason. Notre Dame and Ohio State were selected as the final two teams to get into the CFP and a lot of people felt that Texas A&M should’ve been in instead of one of these two teams. I’m “a lot of people” because Notre Dame looked like they didn’t belong in their matchup against Clemson this past week. Nevertheless, they get to play undefeated Alabama and opened as 17.5 point underdogs. The line has now shifted to 19.5 points, which seems a bit much given the significance of this game. I think Notre Dame fights to keep this one close and covers the spread, but ultimately loses a high scoring affair, 49–38.

The pick: Notre Dame (+19.5), Over 65.5

Sugar Bowl (CFP Semi Final) — No. 2 Clemson (-7.5) vs. No. 3 Ohio State — O/U 65.5

Analysis: In the other matchup for the CFP semifinals, Clemson faces off against Ohio State in a New Year’s Day showdown. Ohio State caught a lot of criticism for being in the CFP despite only six games played this year. Many believe that they shouldn’t be in, but I think they are one of the best four teams in college football this year and they deserve a chance against one of the other best teams. Unfortunately for them, they play Trevor Lawrence and the Clemson Tigers. This game is fun because both quarterbacks have a real chance at being the first two picks in the NFL draft this upcoming year. I think Trevor Lawrence is the undisputed best player in college football and they take care of business against Justin Fields and Ohio State, winning comfortably 45–24.

The Pick: Clemson (-7.5), Over 65.5

January 2, 2020

Gator Bowl — No. 23 NC State vs. Kentucky (-2.5) — O/U 53

Analysis: The Gator Bowl features NC state and Kentucky in what looks to be a pretty mediocre game. Both teams put together average seasons and there’s not a lot of buzz about either team. Kentucky is favored by 2.5 points, but I think they’re better than what their record shows and they win this game easily, 24–13.

The pick: Kentucky (-2.5), Under 53

Outback Bowl — Ole Miss vs. No. 11 Indiana (-6.5) — O/U 66.5

Analysis: Ole Miss had a great offensive output this year which is likely thanks to their newest head coach, Lane Kiffin. Kiffin and the Ole Miss offense looked great this year, but the same can’t be said about their defense. Ole Miss has one of the worst defenses in the SEC this year and Indiana can score enough points to keep up with the Ole Miss offense. I like Ole Miss to keep it close, but I think Indiana is the better team and they find a way to cap off their phenomenal season with an Outback Bowl victory, winning 31–28 over Lane Kiffin’s club.

The pick: Ole Miss (+6.5), Under 66.5

Fiesta Bowl — No. 25 Oregon vs. No. 10 Iowa State (-4.5) — O/U 57

Analysis: Oregon has been inconsistent this year, but they won the PAC 12 championship over USC and landed themselves in the Fiesta Bowl against Iowa State. Led by Brock Purdy, Iowa State was one win away from having a shot at the CFP but they fell short against Oklahoma in the Big 12 championship. This matchup is intriguing as both teams matchup well against each other. I think Iowa State is the better team, but Oregon plays them tough and covers the spread. My final score prediction is 27–23, Iowa State.

The pick: Oregon (+4.5), Under 57

Orange Bowl — No. 5 Texas A&M (-7) vs. No. 13 North Carolina — O/U 68.5

Analysis: The Aggies face off against a great offense in North Carolina in what is sure to be a fun game to watch if you’re a fan of offense like me. Kellen Mond looks great under Jimbo Fisher for the Aggies and I think A&M deserved the opportunity to play Alabama in the CFP instead of Notre Dame. I don’t make the rules, though, so the Aggies are stuck playing in the Orange Bowl. North Carolina is no easy opponent, though, as quarterback Sam Howell and running back Michael Carter continue to impress and lead this offense to be one of the best in the nation. I think the Aggies find a way to win this game in a fantastic game by a score of 55–49. The over in this game feels like a pretty safe bet.

The pick: North Carolina (+7), Over 68.5