Federations of Baseball. My big prediction coming out of Covid…
By: Jonathan Horowitz
Tags: Federalism, Speculative Nonfiction, Sports, Baseball, MLB

My big prediction coming out of Covid is that the US will not exist as one country by the time my children are my age.

This probably matters for a lot of reasons but I only want to focus on baseball. The end of the US probably means the end of MLB, so the bigger question is what will each new country do for its baseball teams and baseball leagues?

I created federations based on current federations created by the pandemic (i.e. the 7 state Northeast Federation and the 3 state West Coast federation) with added stuff based on culture mostly based on interpretations of the book American Nations by Colin Woodard. The other rule is that no state can be split. Each state has to wholly inhabit a federation because I don’t want to think about civil wars. The DH question is based on whether there are more NL or AL teams in a federation. If there is no clear answer then I just went with my gut (I am more than willing to be wrong on the DH question because there should not be a DH).

Going from East to West:

The North Atlantic Federation (ME, NH, VT, NY, CT, MA, RI, DE, PA, NY)

In the Northeast League there are 5 MLB teams (Pirates, Phillies, Mets, Yankees, and Red Sox). There mostly likely would be a 10 team league without promotion and relegation because of geography. No DH. Newark clearly gets one team, then one team in Harrisburg (mostly so that 6 hour drive is less bad for Pittsburgh), one team in upstate NY (either Syracuse or Buffalo). That’s 8. There would be one team in non-MA New England (most likely either Manchester or Portland) and then Providence for 10 teams.

Prediction of strength of league: While there may be a lack of natural talent because of short seasons, the amount of money and power the league will command will make it one of the premier North American leagues. The Yankees and Red Sox might end up with some sort of Barcelona/Real Madrid dynamic (clearly the Red Sox are Barca in this scenario).

Why no pro/rel: Not enough want, MLB teams too strong.

Mid Atlantic Federation (MD, VA, NC, WV):

There are also 2 MLB teams (Orioles, Nationals). There are 8 teams with no promotion or relegation. The three AAA cities get teams in Norfolk, Charlotte and Durham (which is Raleigh’s team). The other spots are in Asheville, Charleston, WV and Richmond. There will be a DH.

Prediction on strength of league: It’s a small confederation and a small league. The play will probably still be pretty good but it will be a feeder league. Think of it like the Netherlands or Austria in European soccer.

Why no pro/rel: Too traditional. Also it’s a small region and a limited number of cities would want to jump up.

Old South Federation: (TN, AR, MS, AL, GA, FL)

There are three MLB teams in this federation (Braves, Rays, Marlins). For the purposes of this exercise the Marlins count as a MLB team. It is a 12 team league with promotion and relegation. No DH. Obviously the big cities in Tennessee; Memphis and Nashville get teams. Jacksonville also gets a team. Orlando does not get a team because it’s too close to Tampa. Charleston gets a team and the capitals of Alabama (Birmingham), Mississippi (Jackson), and Arkansas (Little Rock) all get teams. Mobile and Knoxville are the other two teams.

Prediction of Strength of League: Surprisingly good. While there will be a lot of talent, the lack of money will mean that it won’t be able to use that talent for the long term.

Why pro/rel: It’s pro free market. The Rays and the Marlins basically like being minor league teams anyways. Also, there are so many cities in Florida that are going to want a major league team.

Great Lakes Federation: (OH, IN, IL, WI, MN, MI, KY)

There are 7 MLB teams in this federation (Cubs, White Sox, Tigers, Twins, Brewers, Indians, Reds). This league adds the Indianapolis Indians for 8 teams. Yes DH. One of Cleveland or Indianapolis (ideally both) change their names. There is no promotion or relegation. However, this league has by far the most developed minor league system as they use existing Midwest League and AAA infrastructure (like Columbus and Toledo) to create a larger minor league system.

Prediction of strength of league: Really good. This might be the most competitive league. The developed infrastructure of many of the teams will mean very high competition. Also, many of the AAA cities (Toledo, Columbus, Louisville) will become very important minor league stops. I think it will be like the EPL, the locals might not be predominant but they will dominate because of money.

Why no pro/rel: Too many MLB teams who don’t want to lose power. It will be run like a cartel. This league will be closest to MLB in structure.

The Greater Midwest Federation: (IA, NE, KS, MO)

There are two major league teams in this federation (Cardinals and Royals). It’s an 8 team league using the traditional 154 game schedule. No DH or promotion or relegation. There are three current or future AAA teams in Wichita, Omaha, and Des Moines. Beyond that Iowa City, Lincoln, and Columbia, MO get teams for 8.

Prediction for strength of league: Not great! There just aren’t that many people in this region. I think it will be a relatively self-contained league with few imports or exports. However, the local and regional rivalries will be awesome!

Why no pro/rel: No cities.

TOL Federation: (TX, LA, OK)

There are 2 MLB teams in this federation (Astros, Rangers) there would be a 12 team league with promotion and relegation. Yes DH. There a bunch of places and cities that would immediately get teams like Austin, San Antonio, New Orleans, Oklahoma City, and El Paso. The other 4 teams are in Tulsa, Baton Rouge, Amarillo, and Midland or Corpus Christi.

Prediction on strength of league: This will be a very good league. Texas has basically been able to support its own minor league since the early 20th century. However, since this country will be a football powerhouse that will stop it from fulfilling its full baseball potential.

Why pro/rel: Every small Texas town will want a MLB team. They will at least get a crack at it. Also, a lot of talent.

The Plain Federation: (ND, SD, MT, ID, WY)

There are no MLB teams in this federation. It is an 8 team league because there are no cities. Yes DH and no promotion or relegation. Only two of these states have affiliated baseball teams right now (ID and MT). It’s a dead zone. Anyway, the teams are in Bismarck, Fargo, Sioux Falls, Cheyenne, Boise, Missoula, Billings, and Idaho Falls. This league will be terrible.

Prediction of strength of league: See above. This league might not make the High A classification of the modern minor leagues. For reference there are currently 6 major leaguers born in these 5 states. 5 of them are relievers.

Why no pro/rel: Not enough interest to have more than 8 teams. Probably not enough talent either.

The Four Corners Plus Federation: (AZ, NV, UT, NM, CO)

There are two MLB teams in this federation (Diamondbacks and Rockies). This will be a 10 team league. No DH and no promotion and relegation. Las Vegas, Salt Lake, Albuquerque, Tucson and Reno all get teams because they all have or recently had AAA teams. Colorado Springs also falls into this category for 8 teams. One of the Salt Lake City suburbs gets a team (more likely Ogden or Orem because of they already have a team but it could be Provo) and I think Santa Fe though it could be Grand Junction.

Prediction on strength of league: Middling. It will be like one of those Eastern European soccer leagues like Ukraine or Russia which has some really good teams but the general quality of play is not as good as in the more established leagues. The baseball infrastructure in Arizona will help.

Why no pro/rel: Bigger clubs and cities will resist double ups (i.e. there won’t be two Denver teams). If they lose that battle then pro/rel will happen.

West Coast Federation: (CA, OR, WA)

It’s the Pacific Coast League redux! I wish the West Coast league is just the ’50s PCL back when it was an “Open” league with 8 teams an 180 game schedule but there are too many people now. There are 6 MLB teams (Angels, Dodgers, Padres, Giants, A’s, Mariners). Yes DH and definitely pro/rel. Each of these teams either directly or indirectly corresponds with a PCL team. The other two teams to add would be in Portland and in Sacramento to re-create the old PCL. Now they would add a team in Tacoma, something in central CA (probably Fresno), Spokane and Eugene. Hopefully they play a 180 game schedule like the original PCL! There will be extensive promotion and relegation.

Prediction of strength of league: This will be the best league. California currently has more MLB players than any other state. The PCL, which is basically just this league, with the same regional outreach, almost became a major league in the ’50s before the Dodgers/Giants moved west. The warm weather combined with the money will make it the premier league in the former US.

Why pro/rel: Because clearly the West Coast is going to do promotion and relegation. They’re all way too into soccer anyway and have wanted this system forever.

Assuming an open border there would also be a 16 team Baseball Champions League. Obviously, at first, the CL would have two teams from each league but after two years that would change and some leagues would get more than others.

Predicted total from each league once it stabilizes:

North East: 2

Mid Atlantic League: 1

Great Lakes: 3

Texas League: 2

Greater Midwest: 1

Plains: 0.5

Four Corners: 2

West Coast: 3

Deep South: 2

The extra .5 will bounce around between the Mid Atlantic League, Deep South, and Northeast Leagues.

Own countries that combine with others or don’t have professional baseball leagues/I don’t want to figure it out:

Alaska and Hawaii.

Misc politics issue:

Assuming that Canada does not split up it will probably create its own league. Mexico will most likely continue to have its own league. I’m not including them in potential teams but obviously Montreal would be in the Northeast, Toronto in the Midwest (they would expand to 10 or kick out Indy), and Vancouver in the PCL are all possibilities. Puerto Rico might also end up with its own league and the DR. Though I bet those continue to just be winter leagues (but they’ll be better because they’ll be less control on the players). This could expand the CL to 24 or 32 teams but I’m not figuring it out either.