An Honest Analysis on why Donald Trump Lost
By: Sergio Padilla
Tags: Politics, Trump, 2020, Washington DC, 2020 Presidential Race

Trump losing re-election was never out of the realm of possibilities, but it is a bit more nuanced than most outlets would lead you to believe.

Photo of Trump screaming on a truck from The Guardian

The election is over. Joe Biden won fair and square. While it is within the President’s legal rights to attempt to uncover irregularities, or request recounts/audits, none have been particularly successful in showing significant evidence that widespread voter fraud happened.

Even William Barr, a rare adult in government, has confirmed to the Associated Press that the Department of Justice has not found evidence of widespread voter fraud. At the time of writing this article, Giuliani and Powell can continue their dog and pony show if they’d like, but it will remain just that.

This article is to provide an honest perspective as to why the 45th President of the United States fell short of reaching 270 electoral votes, and why it’s more complicated than liberal, and conservative media alike would care to admit.

Donald Trump losing re-election was never out of the realm of possibility, seeing as the Queens native lost the popular vote by over two million votes, or two percent of the overall vote to Hillary Clinton in 2016. Trump entered office with one of the lowest approval ratings in history. The man was crude, carried a narcissist aura, had a speckled past at best, and was accused of being some type of bigot.

Character, in my opinion, is more important than many conservatives in the Trump era and beyond will let on. Take President Obama for example. Obama’s approval rating as president was often shaky, and his style of governance very divisive. But people generally liked him as a person. 2012 Republican candidate Mitt Romney wisely stayed away from attacking Obama’s character, going as far to say “I think he’s a nice person. I just don’t think we can afford him any longer.” If you needed good news, it’s that many people are still attracted to the idea of their president being a generally nice man. Joe Biden tapped into this with his soft tone, and being an inoffensive person in general. Contrast that with Hillary Clinton who was widely disliked as far back as 2008. Trump’s rough personality did him no favors against a guy who reminds most people of an older male relative.

But if he had one thing, it was smarts (in some ways). Trump had the political landscape figured out as far back as the 1980s. Seeing as he existed in the very liberal entertainment industry, Trump spent much time as a registered Democrat, and although he had an admiration for Ronald Reagan, he admits to assisting in the funding of Democrat candidates, and even having the Democrat royalty of the Clinton clan attending his wedding as recently as 2005.

Trump also found much inspiration in the candidacy of 1992 and 1996 Reform party nominee, and Texas billionaire Ross Perot. Perot offered a policy agenda that included liberal and conservative ideas of protectionist economics, non-interventionism, all the while securing America’s borders, strengthening the war on drugs and standing up to the growing Chinese threat. Trump was inspired, and even considered a presidential run as far back as 2000 under the reform party banner. This is evident due to his first political memoir “The America We Deserve”. Reading, or even skimming through the book is strange. Comparing Trump at the 2020 debates to Trump writing this book is like night and day. Which, ironically, gives us our first big hint as to why Trump lost.

First off, it’s evident that Trump still carried on his Democrat ideals when he called for the ban of assault rifle style weapons, and (get this), stumping for socialized medicine, or universal healthcare as it’s called now-a-days. The first of which being a highly debated topic in the country, and another policy proposal that, while still debated, is gaining traction, and we’ll discuss that along with other policy proposals.

Trump’s 2016 campaign rhetoric sounded much like how he did in 2000 writing his book minus the unconstitutional proposal and the socialism. Bring back jobs from across the globe, reverse our disastrous trade deals, support law enforcement, protect social security and Medicare/Medicaid, secure our borders via a physical barrier, and stop endless wars such as the war in Iraq. While Trump lacked a real healthcare solution, he correctly tapped into the mood of many conservatives, but also many people who had never voted in their lives due to them being sick of the two party duopoly in the country. Trump dominated his GOP opponents with ease. While candidates like Jeb Bush and future HUD secretary Ben Carson brought little but tax plans and banal 1980s policy prescriptions, Trump played into the conservative base’s culture wars while speaking of populist policy prescriptions.

To this day, Trump scuffles with the media, and is not so sympathetic to the culture war talking points on the other side with liberal/Democrat movements and organizations like Black Lives Matter, and progressives like Bernie Sanders. Although contrary with his antiwar rhetoric, Trump would also relentlessly speak out against Isis, with the infamous “bomb the sh*t out of them” quote. The left had still a bit of a ways to go on developing their culture war tactics, but suffice to say, the right was firmly entrenched within the conservative cultural counter-offensive that Trump launched on “political correctness”.

He also mastered the art of sloganeering. He tapped into the nation’s disapproval of congress, and the vast sea of unelected bureaucrats with “Drain the swamp”. He appeased hardcore conservatives upset with the Benghazi situation with his “Lock her up” chants. He even tapped into Clinton’s massive unlikability and general distrust with his “Crooked Hillary” smear. Trump was no more popular than Clinton, with some polls showing them at 38% likability each, but he managed to skew her image more than she did his, due to her background in politics.

Despite Twitter and media straw manning, few were blind to the obvious character defects that Trump exhibited. Many of his supporters knew they were voting for a guy who spent much of his life surrounded by vice, and narcissism. They saw the Hollywood Access tapes, the tweets about Megyn Kelly and Rosie O’Donnell and more. But when the choice was the wife of the former President that sent your factory job to China or Mexico, or a toxic stick of dynamite to bring down the establishment, many made their choice because they felt desperate. Donald Trump would never be elected, if millions of Americans were not desperate. Establishment Democrats refuse to understand that, which is partly why our country is divided as it is today.

Trump’s populist rhetoric put him over the top in the “Blue Wall” of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Though Trump could win the states of Ohio, Iowa, and Florida while still losing (which he would later do), correctly tapping into the rage and frustration with establishment politicians (including Republicans, and even a fair amount of two-time Obama voters) of mostly white, blue collar men, would be the Democrats undoing. So it was done. Early November 9th, 2016, Donald Trump carried the rust belt by the slimmest of margins to beat Hillary Clinton.

But what happened after that?

Was Trump successful in bringing back all these jobs that he had promised would return? Would Trump follow through with his promise to revitalize American infrastructure across the country? Would the southern border be secured?

Not really. And that’s why Trump is where he is today.

But why? Why would Trump do a 180 on a country that just elected him? If Donald Trump had truly tapped into this political climate, why was his re-election bid not a triumphant success?

It’s simple. Trump allowed nepotism, pettiness and his habit of being persuaded by anyone who was just in the room, or any one who would coddle his ego. He’s really not this 4-D Chess genius that 4Chan made him to be.

Let’s start with the most dastardly of criminals within the Trump White House. He hired his moronic step-son Jared Kushner to be one of his closest advisors. While Kushner can be given some credit for his peace deals with the middle-east and Israel, he has been a disaster for United States domestic policy. For starters, Kushner despises the desperate blue collar men and women who gave Trump the White House in the first place. Kushner is not a populist. At best, he can be described as a neo-liberal hyper capitalist, seeking to sink the country deeper into the swamp while enriching himself. Instead of Trump picking another populist running mate, it’s widely believed Kushner picked then Indiana Governor and Tobacco industry plant Mike Pence to become Vice President.

Most damningly, Kushner was also a leading voice in the “First Step Act”, an act that allowed numerous violent criminals to be released from prison, as Kushner publicly believed that making society more unsafe would lead to more black support for Trump. Privately, who knows what Jared thinks. It’s even rumored Trump regrets letting Kushner lead this charge. This is important because Trump really did wish to pass some form of infrastructure legislation.

Infrastructure, while more complex than most would lead on to, would have created a plethora of new jobs, and revitalized crumbling infrastructure in states that voted for Trump like West Virginia, and states that didn’t, such as Rhode island. Put into this position, many smart men would obviously take this opportunity to revitalize infrastructure. Due to Trump’s habit of being wooed by whoever has his attention at the moment, and Kushner’s desire to ride the profitability of 1980s Republican policy until the GOP gets vaporized by demographic shifts or general disinterest, this bill never saw the light of day. Have fun walking alone at night.

But how could I forget, Israel is still getting billions a year thanks to Kushner! Thank goodness our #1 ally is well funded while we have thousands of people dying a day of opioids thanks to our wonderful FDA.

Trump’s infamous tax cut bill (Tax Cuts and Jobs Act) can also be cited as a failure, if not a partial reason for why he lost. The bill itself is huge, and is some of the most sweeping tax legislation to go through the American congress since the 1980s. It would need an article of it’s own to nitpick every detail, but essentially, the bill cemented lower tax rates on corporate profits, investment income ,and estate tax amongst others according to Investopedia. Some research has suggested that this corporate giveaway even encouraged companies to outsource more jobs overseas, essentially killing Trump’s chances at a great return of American jobs to the Midwest and elsewhere.

The interesting thing about Trump is, despite these mishaps throughout the last 3 years, his chances at re-election never plummeted to zero. Trump threw his supporters under the bus in favor of his family, and the GOP continued doing what they’ve done since the 80s. In my opinion, what kept Trump alive in the race for so long was his constant pressure on the culture war, and the ire he attracted from increasingly less popular liberal cultural elites, which fired up the conservative base.

By 2020 Trump had a different tone. He had fully embraced the Heritage foundation talking points of slashing regulations, how awesome the stock market was doing, along with divisive culture issues of gun rights. While there’s certainly nothing wrong with advocating for the second amendment, Trump was convinced by the likes of Larry Kudlow, and Art Laffer that the health of the stock market and corporate profits was a sign of a soon-to-rebound economy, and a return to normal.

But there never was normal. Trump’s austerity plan put more money in the pockets of the elites he would speak out about, and little wealth trickled down. The opiate crisis was still raging. Republicans and Democrats stumped for mass immigration in order for businesses to pay serf wages, and displace millions of American workers. Tech censorship ran rampant.

Then came the coronavirus, and mass unrest from riots over the summer. Admittedly, Trump took some action early on with shutting down borders and urging Americans to avoid large social gatherings, and remain vigilant. His approval ratings, even with liberal pollsters, went just slightly north of 50%. But this would only be for the beginning of a year long epidemic that continues at the time of writing. The stimulus deal that Trump signed on to bailed out financial institutions, and large corporations. Normal Americans got a wee $1200, and tens of millions struggled due to the costs of rent, utilities and food. Small business owners went to the wayside as larger chains of retail and restaurants profited. Their own government had completely abandoned them on all levels, all the while losing family members and friends to a deadly virus. Naturally, they wanted a change.

When it came to the mass unrest stemming from the police killing of George Floyd, Trump sat by idly. Rioters burned the streets of Minneapolis, destroying many businesses, a police precinct, and similar situations began to unfold in cities and towns across the country. The Black Lives Matter movement’s favorability plummeted from 60% to 48% from May to August respectively. It got to the point where, in an absolutely blood boiling scene, the downtown area of Washington D.C was completely ablaze. Smoke covered the Washington monument in what looked like a scene from a third world nation in civil war.

But Trump did nothing. He sat by idly, so as to “own” the liberal Democrat mayors whose cities were already impoverished by their own misuse of power, now amplified by the worst pandemic in a century, and criminals with support from activists and city politicians alike to burn them to the ground. Jared Kushner had the bright idea of inviting Chinese mistress Lebron James to the White House to “have a conversation” about the racial polarization the riots produced.

While examples of ransacked Target and Walmart are always shown, and disgusting in their own right, many small business owners saw their livelihoods destroyed within a matter of days and cities that were once centers of American culture were reduced to nothing more than violent warzones.

The irony comes from the fact that the same corporations that Trump gave stimulus to, on top of the massive tax cuts would be the same ones bankrolling BLM, and showing fawning support so as to advance a broader, divisive narrative that America’s heritage and culture is inherently racist. These same big businesses that Republicans love to simp over endlessly gave platform for the riot-apologist race hustlers that inevitably ran with the money donated to BLM. We love the free market, don’t we folks? I discussed this in my second article on Medium if you’d like to hear more about this topic in particular.

Trump refused to do what any other president in history would have done. Even President Obama, for his flaws, did not allow Ferguson, Missouri to be an embarrassment to the rest of the world. He used necessary force to sort out the riots, and addressed the nation to condemn the thug-like behavior that had overtaken the town, and attempt to unify the nation. Obama was not perfect, but he understood that leaders must undertake drastic action to keep the social climate at bay. When you hold the office of the presidency, you become the leader of all of America. Not just the states and counties that voted for you. That’s how you make a broad coalition, which Trump refused to do.

Exit polling shows that Trump lost support amongst older Americans, especially older whites aged 65 and above, who normally make the backbone for Republican support. Almost like failing to contain a virus that kills mostly older people would lose you votes amongst older people.

Whites in general would lose Trump several key states such as the rustbelt, as well as republican strongholds such as Arizona and Georgia. Ana Navarro, and Stacey Abrams will tell you it was the black and Latino votes (blxck and latinx to them)that lost Trump key states, but they’re not entirely correct. Trump net gained among Latino voters especially, flipping key majority-Hispanic counties in Texas along the Mexican border such as Val Verde and Zapata, and won a majority of Hispanic men in the key battleground state of North Carolina. Cubans showed out for Trump in Miami, building on the support he had in Florida from 2016. Cities such as New York, Los Angeles, El Paso, and San Francisco, which are deeply multicultural, increased their support for the president. Blacks also made up their lowest percentage of the vote in Georgia since the 2006 election, as well as increasing support from 8% in 2016 to 12%.

However, Trump would struggle with white suburban voters, as previously mentioned. Going back to Texas, Trump struggled in the suburbs of Dallas and Austin, and received less of a percentage of the vote in cities like San Antonio and Houston. In Staten Island, despite being the city’s only Republican borough, Trump lost support amongst the mostly white voter base while gaining in deep blue boroughs like the Bronx and Queens. Do you see the pattern? Trump lost support amongst whites as a whole, especially those living in suburbs, and made some marginal gains amongst minority groups.

As is the era of insanity we entered into, which seems to have started in around 2015, we’ve barely scratched the surface. While writing this, the electoral college has confirmed Biden’s win, the Supreme Court unanimously refused to hear Trump’s attempts to overturn the election, essentially killing any longshot attempt Trump would have at staying in power. However, we won’t be seeing the last of Donald for at least another four years.

According to speculation, and even a leaked video, Trump plans on running for president again in 2024 as the President’s two potential terms need not be served consecutively (see Grover Cleveland), with rumors of the announcement coming while Joe Biden is being inaugurated. There’s that pettiness in action.

Has Trump learned anything? Will he decide to ditch Kushner and crew to return to his 2016 self? Fat chance. As long as his insane clown posse stays within earshot, and they massage his ego, we can expect to see the same culture war style of rhetoric mixed with some 1988 Republican jargon on taxes and regulation for another four years, even though Trump will be out of office. Who knows what will happen. If this year has taught us anything, it’s to not rule out the impossible. God help us all.