How to Divide the United States into Two Countries
By: Kyle Chan
Tags: America, Democrats, Republicans, Trump, Politics

Author’s note: I was surprised by the amount of attention this Medium post received, which I originally wrote as a quick thought experiment. Of course, I have my own personal biases, which a number of commenters have pointed out. If you have a different opinion, I invite you to share your own vision of a two-state solution in the comments or to write your own Medium post and include a link. I still maintain my overarching point that both red and blue America would be better off without each other.

The US is more divided than ever. According to Pew, 91% of Americans today say that conflicts between Democrats and Republicans are either strong or very strong, a higher number than in 2016 (85%) and 2012 (81%). The political and cultural divide has become so intense that we must seriously consider whether both sides might not be better off if the US were divided into separate countries.

State coalitions have already begun to form. After Trump withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement on climate change in June 2017, the US Climate Alliance was formed by the governors of Washington, New York, and California to continue progress toward climate-related policy goals. The US Climate Alliance now includes governors from 24 states. In response to the coronavirus pandemic, several state coalitions have formed to coordinate policies for reopening their economies including the Western States Pact, an East Coast coalition, a coalition of southeast states, and a coalition of midwestern states.

Using the results of the 2016 presidential election, I’ve divided the US into two hypothetical new countries: Blue America and Red America. I’ve tried to remain as politically neutral as possible, trying to capture what I believe would be the most likely scenario for each country. The issue of swing states like Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan is a major one that I’ll have to skip over for now. I’ve used Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau data to calculate economic and demographic statistics.

I’ve drawn implicitly on some relevant historical experiences including Brexit and the formation of the EU; the partitions of India, Pakistan, Korea, Germany, and China; the dissolution of the Soviet Union; the independence movements of Scotland, Catalonia, and the Basque Country; and of course the secession of the American South.

The First 5 Years

In the beginning, little would appear to change. Both countries would remain strongly interconnected through policies designed to maintain the status quo, such as free trade agreements and open border policies. A new set of parallel federal institutions would be formed, based in a newly established national capital. Which of the two countries would inherit the old US federal institutions would depend on which party controlled Congress and the White House at the time. Where possible, federal resources would be apportioned by population or economic size, including military assets (including nuclear weapons) and strategic stockpiles. Some matters would need to be negotiated such as overseas military bases and the national debt.

Both countries would begin to enact policies they had long wished for (see extended list below). Blue America would create a universal public healthcare system, raise taxes on the wealthy, and open the country to immigration. Red America would drastically cut personal and corporate taxes, restrict immigration, and shrink government spending. There would be mass protests by people who ended up in the “wrong” country, particularly in swing states.

After 20 Years

Over time, the two countries would diverge significantly. There would be large-scale demographic sorting. People from blue parts of red states and red parts of blue states would eventually move to their country of choice. College-educated Americans, minorities, and immigrants would overwhelmingly shift toward Blue America due to its progressive policies and greater economic opportunities. Foreign researchers and entrepreneurs would flock to Blue America’s universities and cities. Red America’s demographics would increasingly skew white and less educated.

Blue America’s economy would grow to dwarf Red America’s in a milder version of the Civil War-era economic divide between the industrializing American North and the slave-dependent South. Blue America’s economy, which began with an advantage in high-value industries and high-skilled workers, would further benefit from high levels of investment in public goods, such as health care, education, and infrastructure. Red America’s efforts to lure corporations with lower taxes and greater subsidies would not be able to offset the greater appeal of Blue America’s stronger economy, larger market, better infrastructure, and more highly-skilled workforce.

As Blue America became more open to foreign trade and immigration, Red America would eventually close its borders to Blue America, further sealing itself off from the rest of the world in a milder version of the Soviet Union’s Iron Curtain. Facing stagnation and decline, Red America would increasingly resort to military excursions and efforts to destabilize other countries. Blue America and its allies would form a new NATO to contain Red America as it came to present a threat to global security.

Blue America (19 states + DC)

Photo by Aaron Burson on Unsplash

GDP: $10.7 trillion (2nd largest economy after China)

Population: 140 million

GDP per capita: $76,137

White population: 54%

College or more: 40%

Red America (31 states)

Photo by specphotops on Unsplash

GDP: $10.6 trillion (3nd largest economy after China and Blue America)

Population: 188 million

GDP per capita: $56,525

White population: 65%

College or more: 32%

Blue America vs. Red America: Policies

Healthcare

Blue America: universal public healthcare

Red America: private commercial health insurance, repeal of Obamacare, keep Medicare, cut Medicaid to zero

Higher Education

Blue America: free public universities, federal scholarships for private universities

Red America: status quo with combination of private universities and subsidized public universities

Immigration

Blue America: full amnesty and path to citizenship for all undocumented immigrants, large increase in visas, green cards, and new citizenships

Red America: deportation of all undocumented immigrants, border wall with Mexico, country-based immigration restrictions

Gun Control

Blue America: full background checks, national registry, ban on assault weapons

Red America: no permit or background check required for firearms purchase

Abortion

Blue America: abortions are legal and covered by public health insurance

Red America: abortions are illegal with no exceptions

Environment

Blue America: large public investment in renewable energy, stricter environmental protection policies, end of subsidies to fossil fuel industries, ban on fracking

Red America: weakening of environmental protection policies, few restrictions on oil & gas extraction including fracking

Federal Reserve and Currency

Blue America: status quo with Federal Reserve as central bank and dollar as national currency

Red America: central bank abolished, new currency issued tied to gold standard

Trade

Blue America: expanded trade agreements with emphasis on labor and environmental protections including trade deal with EU, NAFTA, Trans-Pacific Partnership

Red America: expansion of tariffs on imports from China, EU, Canada, Mexico

Taxes

Blue America: higher personal income tax rates for high earners, wealth tax, capital gains taxed as ordinary income, higher corporate tax rate, campaign against offshore tax havens

Red America: flat personal income tax, zero corporate tax rate

While the transition could be challenging, the final result would be a dream come true for both sides. Democrats and Republicans need to ask themselves: what’s the point of still holding on?