Thursday December 30th Bowl Betting Preview
Tags: Sportsbetting, Collegefootball

A mayo bath, a home game, two partying fanbases let loose in the desert and the first New Year’s Six game with notable opt outs

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Duke’s Mayo Bowl

North Carolina (6–6) vs South Carolina (6–6)

Thursday, 11:30am, ESPN

UNC -9/Total 58.5

This is an interesting game because North Carolina on paper is much better, hence the spread, but South Carolina likely comes in way more motivated. The Gamecocks making a bowl game was fairly surprising and Shane Beamer has done a tremendous job getting the rebuild ahead of schedule. They got bowl eligible with surprising wins against Auburn and Florida. It’s a team that overachieved. North Carolina on the other hand were one of the bigger underachievers this year. It took a while for the skill position players to mesh and the offensive line stunk out loud most of the year. The Tar Heels are 126th in FBS in sack rate and allowed the fourth most sacks in FBS. South Carolina was middle of the pack in sack rate and pretty good against the pass…because teams largely ran at will on them. The Gamecocks allow 178.9 yards per game and 4.71 yards per carry, although UNC isn’t much better themselves against the run allowing 169.9 yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry. UNC has the edge on the ground as South Carolina’s leading rusher ZaQuandre White opted out and the Tar Heels are 11th in rushing offense and ninth in rush EPA. If North Carolina can keep Sam Howell upright it’s going to be a long day for South Carolina, but North Carolina falls into the category of a team I don’t trust at all. They’re the better team here, perhaps much better, but their inconsistency and the randomness of bowl games makes me uneager to back them. Maybe put a small sprinkle on South Carolina and hope to see Shane Beamer get a mayo bath after the game.

Music City Bowl

Tennessee (7–5) vs Purdue (8–4)

Thursday, 3pm, ESPN

Tennessee -5.5/Total 63.5

I reckon Tennessee is going to be one of the most popular bets in all of the bowl season and it’s easy to put the pieces together as to why. It’s a de facto home game for the Vols getting to play in Nashville and Purdue’s best player on both sides of the ball opted. On offense that’s receiver David Bell who had 93 catches and 1,275 yards receiving. On defense it’s likely top-15 pick George Karlaftis who had 54 pressures and five sacks. Tennessee will be without its second best running back Tiyon Evans, but are otherwise full strength so expect the usual up tempo, down field passing attack that is the hallmark of Josh Heupel’s offense. The question remains to be seen if Purdue will be able to keep up on offense. Purdue doesn’t run the ball well. Even if you take out sack yards they run at just 3.4 yards per clip. Purdue still has some firepower at receiver with Milton Wright catching 57 passes for 732 yards and a team-leading seven touchdowns. They’ll need Kydran Jenkins and DaMarcus Mitchell, who combined for 8.5 sacks, to carry the pass rush against a Tennessee offensive line that has been vulnerable in pass protection this year. It’s a next man up scenario for Purdue and maybe they band together and play well here, but with Hendon Hooker, Cedric Tillman and Velus Jones powering the Tennessee offense, it’s hard to see Purdue keeping up.

Peach Bowl

12 Pittsburgh (11–2) vs 10 Michigan State (10–2)

Thursday, 7pm, ESPN

Michigan State -2.5/Total 56

This is a game that could’ve been a lot of fun, but had the air completely taken out of it when the two marquee players, Pitt QB Kenny Pickett and Michigan State running back Kenneth Walker III, opted out. Furthermore, the Panthers lost offensive coordinator Mark Whipple to Nebraska and big play receiver Taysir Mack who averaged 17.1 yards per catch on 27 catches. Pittsburgh will turn to junior Nick Patti who threw just 14 passes this year to try and light up a Michigan State secondary that was torched pretty constantly in 2021. The Spartans are dead last in pass yards allowed per game, although they rank 84th in pass efficiency defense which is merely bad. Jordon Simmons is a sizable step down from Walker in the run game rushing for just 255 yards this year, but the passing game is intact and that should pay dividends against a boom-or-bust Panther defense. Pittsburgh is fourth in defensive busted drive rate allowing zero or negative yards on 20.5 percent of drives, but they’re just 58th in pass efficiency defense. Michigan State should be able to hit some big plays in the passing game and it remains to be seen if Pittsburgh can keep up. This is an ulta-contrarian take and I get it, but even with a lot of uncertainty on offense, Pittsburgh still has the potential to score some points and now that the total has dropped 6.5 points from where it opened, I would honestly take a good, hard look at the over.

Las Vegas Bowl

Wisconsin (8–4) vs Arizona State (8–4)

Thursday, 10:30pm, ESPN

Wisconsin -6/Total 42

This has nothing to do with betting, but I’d like to attend this bowl game more than any other non-playoff game this year. You can expect magic when you have Arizona State and Wisconsin fans mingling in Sin City. As far as the game goes, it seems less likely Arizona State will be as up for it as Wisconsin will be. Wisconsin wants to end the season on a high note after crashing back to earth in a rivalry loss against Minnesota. Minnesota was the only team able to stop Braelon Allen over the final two months of the season and the Gophers have a much better run defense than Arizona State does. ASU will also be without three starters on defense, although two of them are in the secondary and you have to live under a rock not to know how much the Badgers struggle throwing the ball. Arizona State is second in the country in rush EPA offense and 15th in yards per carry, but they’re without their top two running backs. Rachaad White opted out and DeaMonte Trayanum entered the transfer portal leaving Daniyel Ngata as the only running back on the ASU roster with double-digit carries this season. Jayden Daniels ran the ball for 670 yards to go along with his more than 2,000 passing yards, but being short-handed and possibly one dimensional against the Wisconsin defense doesn’t seem like it’s going to end well for the Sun Devils. Unless they can turn Graham Mertz over a couple of times, which is always a possibility, it doesn’t seem like this is a good spot for ASU.