Yet another AMA!
By: Kyle Kishimoto
Tags: MLB, Angels, Baseball

Hello again! I’m doing another AMA, where I take your questions on Twitter and answer them here. I haven’t done much writing in the last month or so, but I’m trying to do more. With that, here we go!

@nightdrive82 asks: Deepdish or thin crust?

Thin crust. I actually like deep dish quite a bit (ducks) but thin crust is better in my opinion. However, neither is as good as a doughy calzone.

@Jackmagic00 asks: Who would you want to see as the Angels’ starting SS if they don’t sign any big names?

Let’s explore internal options first. I’ll go through a few different players.

Luis Rengifo: He looked pretty lost at the plate in 2021, especially from an approach standpoint. His chase rate jumped dramatically, causing his 10.6% walk rate in his first 2 seasons to fall to just 4.7% last year. His swinging strike rates also climbed, and there wasn’t an increase in power to compensate. I would feel really, really uncomfortable starting a guy who just had a .556 OPS and hasn’t shown any measurable improvement at the big league level.

David Fletcher: I’m not convinced Fletcher can fully handle the shortstop position defensively as an everyday starter. The plus instincts and range that made him a Gold Glove finalist at second base won’t translate to shortstop with his well below average arm strength, and although he’s handled the positioat a reasonable level as a late-season fill in, being the starter all year is a different story. I think any scenario in which he’s moved away from second base is a significant defensive downgrade.

Tyler Wade: He’s a well below average hitter and has been a below average shortstop during his time there. He’s a valuable player for his potential on-base skills and defensive versatility, but he’s not a starter.

Brendon Davis: If Davis gets a starting spot next year, it’ll likely be at second base with David Fletcher moving to shortstop. In addition to all the downsides of Fletcher moving over, I just don’t see Davis as a big league hitter right now. He ran swinging strike rates around 15% in the minors last year, which are likely to increase in the majors with the increased quality of pitchers. For what it’s worth, FanGraphs’ scouting report gives him a 30 hit tool, basically projecting him as a .220 hitter with below average power output.

In the free agent market, the pickings are pretty slim beyond Trevor Story and Carlos Correa, but two interesting guys are Jonathan Villar and Andrelton Simmons. Villar’s defense is probably slightly below average, but has been a really solid hitter over the past few years (99 OPS+ since 2019). Simmons is no longer the 2017–2018 guy that we had as an above average hitter, and his bat has fallen off hard since his 2019 injury. But he’s still the best defensive shortstop in the game, and someone like that could be a huge boost to the pitching staff.

@wrenchplant asks: What’s the best reasonable trade you can see the Angels making without moving Marsh/Adell?

(I clarified with this person and they said I can trade Detmers)

Without moving Marsh and Adell, and without trading any big major league pieces, the best offer the Angels could put together is probably Reid Detmers, Sam Bachman, Jordyn Adams, and Arol Vera (there are other prospects in the system, but they’d probably be substitutes for one of the above names rather than additions). I don’t think teams value the non-Detmers pieces all that much (Bachman is generally considered to be a future reliever, Adams hasn’t hit as a pro yet, and Vera is good but very far from the majors). Luis Castillo is a name that the Reds have been rumored to be shopping, and I don’t think this offer is enough to land him. I’m not sure what other names have been rumored to be on the block, but I’m sure that package could fetch a good piece, but you do have to consider whether it’s worth sacrificing 6 years of a mid-rotation starter and high-leverage reliever for it.

@pseudowes asks: Do you have any physical theories as to why VAA for fastballs is related to whiff%?

For those unfamiliar, VAA refers to vertical approach angle, or the steepness/flatness of a pitch as it crosses the plate. The primary pitch that we use VAA to analyze is the four-seam fastball, and there is a correlation between flatter fastballs and more whiffs. There are two main reasons why — first, flatter fastballs are outliers and hitters aren’t used to seeing them the way they’re used to seeing fastballs with average VAAs, and second (and more importantly), flatter fastballs appear to be “rising” more, aka dropping less on their way to the plate.