Update May 5 for Europe — Eastern holidays
By: Falk Langhammer
Tags: Data Science, Flatten The Curve, Coronavirus, Germany, Charts

Update May 5 for Europe — Eastern holidays

I have updated the figures for a few European countries. With a special look into the effect of Eastern holidays.

Austria R0 (green), log-new-cases (orange), Alert Value +3 (blue), Eastern holidays (red bar)

Austria

New Cases 04.05.2020: 24

Weekly average: 50

R0: 0,77 (0,61–0,97)

Forecast 01.06: 14 (2–87)

Alert Value A: -0,10

Austria is among the first European countries to have managed to bring its Alert Value A below 0. It is on a good track.

However, as you can see, the alert value had a bump a few days ago. It matches with the date of Eastern holidays, shifted 19 days forward due to the lag in sensitivity for both R0 and A. Eastern holidays in Middle Europe had especially good weather and people were allowed to go outside. Personally and this is a speculation, the rise in A/R0 isn’t purely accidental, nor is it because of infections in the parks. I actually assume a lot of family get-togethers have been taking place, despite having not been allowed. Again, pure speculation from my side. Maybe, tracing reports for cases could actually deliver this information.

Germany

Germany

New Cases 04.05.2020: 488

Weekly average: 1056

R0: 0,75 (0,66–0,85)

Forecast 01.06: 121 (46–320)

Alert Value A: -0,02

Germany managed to just reach a negative Alert value too. The progress looks more steady than in other countries and it could hit two-digit new cases by early June. That may be slowed down by opening up the country though.

Italy

Italy

New Cases 04.05.2020: 1221

Weekly average: 1789

R0: 0,81 (0,76–0,85)

Forecast 01.06: 344 (224–530)

Alert Value A: 0,60

Italy more recently is making good progress too. It struggled for a few weeks to really get its R0 below 1, despite the tough measures. This showcases how hard it is to bring the outbreak under control after it went for too long undetected.

Spain

My model is running havoc because of Spain altering its way to count cases. But cases are declining (orange line). R0 exploded for one day because of the weekly (orange) curve to dip.

Spain

New Cases 04.05.2020: 545

Weekly average: 1221

France

France

New Cases 04.05.2020: 614

Weekly average: 471

R0: 0,38 (0,20–0,71)

Forecast 01.06: 9 (0–1174)

Alert Value A: -0,49

France is another example of inconsistent counting. More recently though, my model computes very low values for R0 and a negative Alert value. France certainly is on a good track now, but there is a large statistical uncertainty.

UK

Of all large countries in Europe, the UK does now the biggest problem.

United Kingdom

New Cases 04.05.2020: 3985

Weekly average: 4776

R0: 1,01 (0,90–1,13)

Forecast 01.06: 5793 (2316–14489)

Alert Value A: 1,45

The alert level remains “very high risk”. And it refuses to drop the last 2–3 weeks. I assume that by June, the UK will have more daily new cases than the rest of Europe combined, excluding Russia.

Sweden

Sweden

New Cases 04.05.2020: 404

Weekly average: 542

R0: 0,88 (0,77–1,00)

Forecast 01.06: 269 (96–759)

Alert Value A: 1,13

Sweden is a much observed country; because of its less strict handling of the epidemic. The situation is improving for a week now, with still a “very high risk” level. Note that Sweden more recently applies a more rigouros strategy as faith in Anders Tegnell deteriorates. It is a bit sad as of March 23, the Alert value was only “high” with a trend towards “moderate”. It would have been cheap to act then.

Russia

Russia

New Cases 04.05.2020: 10581

Weekly average: 8303

R0: 1,33 (1,14–1,55)

Forecast 01.06: 40942 (12712–131857)

Alert Value A: 1,28

Russia unfortunately, is another “very high risk” level country, with a trend within the last week for the worse. The alert value has increased overall for the past 6 weeks, another lost opportunity to act when it is cheap.