The New Silk Road
By: Theodore Wong
Tags: China, Economics, Belt And Road Initiative, Politics, International Relations

“China is a sleeping giant”, famously pronounced Napoleon Bonaparte, “for when she wakes, she will move the world”. Although this prediction is a testament to Napoleon’s understanding of politics and world affairs, those well versed in history will have seen China’s monumental rise to the top coming. One of the oldest civilizations, China has long had a rich history of academia, innovation, and culture. China’s sheer manpower and resources, coupled with its legacy of being one of Asia’s power players has fueled a thirst for expansion and a return to the glory days of old. The power elite of China have launched a vast campaign to reshuffle the world order, and perhaps the most critical piece in this puzzle is the Belt and Road Initiative. An infrastructure project that will connect over sixty countries, the Belt and Road Initiative will undoubtedly disrupt the world economy and cement China’s place at the top of the geopolitical food chain if successful.

While the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative, or BRI for short, may seem far-fetched, these effects seem very plausible once one understands the details of this ambitious plan. The project can be first categorized into two legs: the overland Silk Road Economic Belt, and a Maritime Silk Road. The Belt is a series of infrastructure projects ranging from railroads to oil pipelines that seeks to modernize the trade capabilities of many of China’s poorer neighbors and connect these countries to China and each other. The belt stretches through Central Asia, the Middle East, and Europe. The sheer magnitude of this Road can be aptly summarized in the railway stretching from the Chinese city of Yiwu to Madrid in Spain. The Maritime Silk Road is an extensive route that connects the Eastern Coastal cities of China with the Middle East, East Africa, Southeast Asia, and the Indian Peninsula. These infrastructure developments are funded by Chinese government-backed loans to the respective countries, a large reason many countries have been eager to join the project. The effects of this development are broad, and promise economic, cultural, and political benefits for all involved.

The Overland Belt and Road and the Maritime Silk Road, pictured

Without a doubt, one of the greatest impacts of the Belt and Road Initiative would be the furthering of globalization. Today, we think of globalization as largely digital — the connection of human society through social media, digital movement of currency, the ability to converse with someone across the globe in real-time. However, the Belt and Road Initiative seeks to reshape the way we define globalization by literally connecting the world through tangible, physical means. Developing countries that previously lacked a robust transportation infrastructure now have the potential to allow an efficient flow of goods, services, and people in and out of their countries, which may give rise to a new generation of migration and further mingling of the human race. The World Bank estimates that the Silk Road Economic Belt would improve “the capacity and network of rail infrastructure”, which would “radically change average travel times”. Furthermore, many peoples across borders have shared historical and cultural connections, only to be split by somewhat arbitrary lines as a result of politics — but the Belt and Road Initiative seeks to remedy this by the connection of people across multiple borders. Perhaps the European Union would serve as a comparison: people that have shared a deep and rich history freely moving about and rediscovering the similarities in their cultural identities. In fact, should the Belt and Road Initiative succeed, the impact of this human connection would be more powerful than the European Union comparison, as Europe had previously enjoyed enough prosperity to modernize and secure a certain degree of freedom of movement. To summarize, the Belt and Road Initiative challenges the way we see globalization and promises an increasingly connected future for people long divided by political bickering.

Another titanic effect of the Belt and Road Initiative would be the disruption of the modern world order. Many of China’s partners in its endeavor are developing countries, part of the “Bottom Billion”. The success of the Belt and Road Initiative would rapidly modernize the trade infrastructure of many of these countries, allowing them to conduct trade at a previously unachievable level. Furthermore, Chinese investments are broad in nature. China is building municipal facilities, schools, and hospitals as well as economic developments in many of these countries. This holistic approach ensures that quality of life and societal stability will come with economic benefits. The “Bottom Billion” countries would be introduced by new players to the game, and the ripple effects of this would be felt all over the world. Wealthy, developed nations can afford to live exorbitant lifestyles because economic and environmental external costs are essentially outsourced to developing countries, and should these developing countries prosper, the lifestyle of developed societies would be challenged. China, as the overseer of this project, would benefit greatly from the prosperity of its trade partners, as they would serve as ripe new markets for China to enter. The Belt and Road Initiative touches 62% of the world’s population, mostly situated in underdeveloped countries, a testament to the fact that a huge portion of the world’s potential consumers remains untapped. The development of these countries, and therefore increased consumerism, would present new sources of revenues for the exporting giant that is China. Amongst all this talk of the winners of the Belt and Road Initiative, discussion of possible losers has been largely ignored. The United States of America, the de facto superpower of the last century, may be left behind due to the isolationist policy adopted by the current Trump administration. Many of the US’s close allies (UK, France, Germany) have been harshly rebuked by President Trump, and their relationships are frosty. China has stepped into the fray, and UK, France, Germany have all joined in one way or another this partnership. While the US continues to shelter itself like a turtle in a shell, spouting “America First”, China has slowly seduced the US’s closest allies, as well as made a play at exerting further influence over the Eurasian continent. Essentially, China is slowly crawling towards global hegemony, while the US looks inward. The University of Nottingham’s Institute of Asia and Pacific Studies projects that the Belt and Road Initiative would help China “further integrate herself into the world economy and strengthen her influence across the three continents”.

The Belt and Road Initiative represents a turning point in China’s chapter. While China has long been a powerful exporter of goods, this monumental injection of capital into many foreign countries marks China’s rise as an exporter of capital. The Belt and Road Initiative also seeks to enhance China’s security and strengthen China geopolitically. To the west of China lies the unstable region of the Middle East, and seeing that the military subjugation of this region has failed time and time again, China is trying a new approach. By building roads, schools, and hospitals, China seeks to solve the structural issues in the region that lead to instability in their respective societies. China hopes that stability will follow as a result of economic prosperity, therefore shielding China from the threat of the militarism of Radical Islam that lies to its West. In addition, the Maritime Silk Road creates a “String of Pearls”, a chain of Chinese naval bases that would secure the coastal regions of China. This serves to counter the strategy of its rival, the United States. During the 20th Century, the United States strategically allied itself with countries in the Pacific, creating a bulwark of sort against China. These countries included the Philippines, Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea, forming a chain around China. The Maritime Silk Road would also protect China’s trade interests in the high seas, particularly the transportation of oil. Oil, a crucial resource to Chinese civil society as well as its military, is largely sourced from the Middle East. Traditionally, oil has been shipped to China’s East Coast, through a long route following the Asian coast. Should the Belt and Road Initiative succeed however, oil would be able to be shipped to various ports, then rapidly transported through pipelines to reach China much quicker than before. Now, the “String of Pearls” challenges the United States for hegemony in the Pacific.

Chinese President Xi Jinping at the opening ceremony of the Second Belt and Road Forum

While the Belt and Road Initiative sounds enticing thus far, there are many concerns about its negative externalities. Many of China’s partners are receiving loans that are equivalent to large portions of their own GDP, despite the fact that many of these countries are incredibly impoverished and unstable. Should these countries be unable to pay back China and default on their loans, economic recession, instability, and chaos would ensue, further setting back many countries that are already very far back. In addition, there are many environmental concerns. An improvement in transportation infrastructure would undoubtedly lead to an increase in carbon emissions, and a study from Boston University’s Global Development Policy Center reports that most of China’s financial investments “in energy and transportation are heavily tied to carbon-intensive sectors”, a worrying fact for a world already locked in a struggle for preservation.

Throughout time, there have been grand projects of colossal scale that have changed the course of history. Decades ago was the Marshall Plan, cementing the United States place at the top of the global ladder, and today, the Belt and Road Initiative seeks to challenge the United States position. Reaching over sixty countries and 62% of the world’s population, the Belt and Road Initiative looks to connect previously disjointed peoples, ushering a new era of globalization. The success of this project would bring about great economic prosperity to developing countries, previously having lacked the resources to invest so heavily in trade infrastructure. A new world order would arise, with billions of people seeing wealth and opportunity previously unattainable, threatening the lifestyle of those in developed countries. However, none would benefit more than China — with new markets and consumers, enhanced security, and influence of nearly two-thirds of the world, it is not ludicrous to see why many are beginning to brace for a new world led forth by China.