Boca Raton Bowl
Tags: Sports, Sports Betting

Boca Raton Bowl

One of the best parts of Bowl season is that the spotlight gets shone on college football with stand-alone games on random Tuesday and Wednesday and Friday nights. This Tuesday night is one of the those nights, when the spot light will be shining on two college football teams that otherwise wouldn’t be noticed by the majority of football fans.

This years Boca Raton Bowl features the Akron Zips versus the Florida Atlantic Owls. The line for this game opened FAU -22 with a total of 61.5. The total has floated up to 64 as of Sunday night and the spread has tickled 22.5 before dropping back to 22. The natural instinct for most people, to be sure,is to have action on this game (because its a stand-alone) and the natural instinct is probably to hammer the Owls because they’ve been rolling and the spread is more than three touchdowns. This article is going to spend 1,000 words trying to temper that instinct.

The Boca Raton Bowl has been held three times. And none of them have been particularly close; all three were in fact blow outs. But, only the first one in 2014 would have seen a favorite cover three touchdowns. Furthermore, one of the participants this year is a MAC team. And everyone knows how bad MAC teams have been in bowls lately; they haven’t had a wining record in bowl games since 2011 and before 2011 you’d have to go back to 2003 to find another winning year. To put a finer point on it, MAC teams went 0–6 straight up last year in bowl games. But, no one’s here to bet moneyline’s with a 22 point favorite. We’re here to talk spreads and despite that gross 0–6 record last year, MAC teams went 4–2 against the spread. MAC teams went 4–4 against the spread in 2015 bowl games and 3–2 in 2015 bowl games. So, while the Boca Raton Bowl does have blowouts, they aren’t by 22 points and while MAC teams generally suck at winning bowl games they’re 11–8 ATS the last three years.

There are some stats to back up the idea of Akron being competitive in this game. In past previews this year, like this one about Army and Navy, or this one about WKU and Georgia State, the best way to start the breakdown has been to look at expected points scored and expected points allowed to try and generate a potential spread. It looks like this:

This explains that FAU is going to generally score 11 points more than their opponents generally give up and Akron generally scores 6 points less than their opponents generally give up. Defensively, both teams generally perform about how they are expected to, giving up slightly less than their opponents are expected to score. According to this, FAU is going to blow them out… but, by 18 or 19, not 22. Would it surprise anyone to see FAU win by 21; allowing Akron to cover but, still win going away?

A further way to check on the size of the disparity between these two teams is to look at their yards per play differential.

These numbers are even more in favour of Akron. This is the biggest yards per play advantage yet in the six bowl games that have been played. Army had a 3.5 advantage, they won outright as a dog. Georgia State had a 6 point advantage, they won outright as a dog. Boise had an 8 point advantage, they won outright as a dog. Marshall had a 6 point advantage, they won outright as a dog. Middle Tennessee had a 3.5 advantage, they won outright as a dog. Akron has a 9!! point advantage.

One place FAU does seem to have a distinct advantage is in the red zone.

These teams seem pretty similar when it comes to stopping teams and in moving the chains. However, once in the red zone, it looks like Akron can get turned away while FAU pounds it home like the best teams in college football — they are #11 in the nation at 92.31%.

Another place FAU may be able to enforce its will is in the field position battle. It appears that the Owls might be able to enjoy some good field position, their defense setting up their offense, if they can continue getting into the back field.

FAU has a big advantage in sacking the quarterback and a big advantage in getting to the ball carrier in the backfield. If that holds true here Akron could be punting from their own territory on the regular.

One last big advantage for FAU, and the one most Owls backers will point to, is their ability to score quick.

This is a big disparity. FAU is one of the most explosive teams in the country while Akron is one of the least explosive. If the Owls get out to a big lead early it could get ugly. Really ugly.

Now that the stats are out of the way, it’s time to circle back to the “intangible”. While Akron carries some MAC baggage into this match-up, they also carry some Conference Championship loser baggage as well. What’s worse than fighting tooth and nail, with a bunch of back-up quarterbacks, to get to a conference championship game (their third ever) and then get blown out? The final score of 45–28 in the loss to Toledo was even flattering — it was 38–7 heading into the 4th quarter when Toledo took their foot off the gas. Will Akron be up for this game? The counter to being flat from losing a Conference Championship game is that this is only Akron’s third ever bowl game appearance. And its in Florida. In December. That’s a hell of a lot better than being in Ohio. A final thing to throw a wrench into the outlook on Akron, is their qb situation. After having Kato Nelson come in and save their season, winning the last two games of the year, Akron fielded four different people throwing passes vs Toledo. Who starts the bowl game? If its Nelson, that could help in the explosiveness department, if its not, you can expect a slow start to the offense.

On the other side of the field is…. Lane Kiffin. Despite all the stats that may point to Akron, everyone knows this dude wants to light it up. That explosiveness advantage, matched with Kiffin’s desire to make a splash has to be helping keep this line above three touchdowns. Further to the Kiffin factor is that these players and this program as a whole should be pumped; this was FAU’s first winning season since 2007 (they went 6–6 in 2008 and needed a bowl win to get to seven), this was also FAU’s first C-USA Championship. This really was a good first season for Lane. Now the bad. Despite many trips to the post-season in a variety of roles, Kiffin is 0–2 as a head coach in bowl games. And while the players should be pumped to be in a bowl game for the first time… they don’t actually get to go anywhere. The Boca Raton Bowl is being held in FAU’s home stadium. Direct quote from Kiffin, “Competitively speaking, it’s a home-field advantage. The only downside is for the players, that they don’t get to go somewhere else.”

This is a lot of words to say… wait for an in-play option. There’s too much contrasting stuff going on here. This method worked in the Las Vegas Bowl, where there was concerns about how motivated Oregon would be and sure enough Oregon never showed up and staying way turned into the best option. There really wasn’t a great explanation in the Las Vegas Bowl write-up of what an in-play option would look like but, the overview is there just wasn’t a time to get in on Oregon. Oregon started with the ball and immediately went 3 and out. Boise responded with a 14 play touchdown scoring drive. Oregon came right back with 4 plays and a punt. There was just nothing in the first two drives to inspire any confidence in betting Oregon. Boise’s second drive ended with an interception in the Oregon endzone and maybe it looks like a live bet option for Oregon… but, three plays later they fumbled the ball and suddenly its 14–0 Boise. Nothing there makes someone want to bet Oregon. This time let’s try laying out some scenarios. For the Boca Raton Bowl, a live bettor would be looking for three scenarios if FAU is the pick. The first would be Akron starts with the ball; they have a sustained drive but, FAU doesn’t look like swiss cheese. As Akron is driving the live line should drop to -21 as they cross mid-field. If Akron scores the live line should drop through the key number and sit somewhere around another dead number like -18.5 or -19. As FAU responds the live line should start to climb back up as the Owls cross mid-field. If they’re moving the ball and look engaged (meaning no incomplete passes, the qb is not getting rushed in the pocket, the running back isn’t get hit in the backfield) then try and hit FAU under -21 because maybe they can run it up. The second scenario would be if FAU starts with the ball. If they punt or turn the ball over, Akron is probably going to start with the ball at about -21. And then its following the previous outline; as Akron drives the line should dip and settle at -18 if they take the lead, as more time is off the clock in this scenario. The third scenario would be if FAU starts with the ball and Kiffin has them rolling. The live line will climb as they drive and reach -24 as they dig into Akron territory If FAU is the side, hit them before they score first because the line will be -27 and maybe a hook afterwards. Conversely, if the stats and exposition above shine a light on Akron, then wait for the inevitable FAU score. As just mentioned, if Akron is available at 27.5 or higher and what they’ve shown early makes them look more motivated than FAU then hit that.

No play pre-game,

Good luck.