False headlines and hyped forecasts are very dangerous. Having trusted sources is critical.
By: Craig Ceecee
Tags: Meteorology, Social Media, Accuracy, Weather, Forecasting

False headlines and hyped forecasts are very dangerous. Having trusted sources is critical. Craig Ceecee Sep 9·7 min read

Large parts of the country are still picking up the pieces, drying out or dealing with loss after Hurricane Ida left a long trail of destruction from Louisiana to the Northeast. It is not surprising that there is a lot of anxiety right now in case there are future storm threats. PTSD after storms is very difficult and needs to be taken seriously. As meteorologists, it is imperative to ensure that the right words are said to explain the situation properly, while not bringing in unnecessary hype and fear. Unfortunately, both in parts of the news media and especially on social media, hyped forecasts with false information or false headlines can spread like wildfire — including on sites with thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, of followers.

False forecasts on social media

With the Internet and social media, some amateur weather forecasts have entered the fray and tried to write their own forecasts. (Disclaimer: at one time, many years ago, I was like that too. I have had to learn a lot personally.) That can result in so many different forecasts from unofficial sources, which can be very different from the official forecasts. I will admit that many of them are good sources and are helpful to provide an additional voice in the weather world — often those covering a certain local area of their expertise. However, there are also some that go significantly overboard on things like winter weather and tropical weather. It is important to know who the forecasters are.

Picture of a fake “forecast” on a weather website showing a major hurricane in the Gulf on September 16, about 12 days out. Photo posted on a tweet from Jack Sillin.

Recently, one site — with over 150,000 followers — posted a forecast of a major hurricane hitting the northwestern Gulf coast around September 16 and said it like it was actually going to happen. It was then shared and ridiculed on a tweet by Jack Sillin and other meteorologists also joined in the discussion. It was based on a single model run about 12 days out, one that immediately corrected itself (in fact, forecasts at this time only show a weak low that might form with a 30% chance of development). That message got out to a very large audience and likely was seen as truth in the minds of many, even though it was so far out that such a forecast would be unrealistic. Those are extremely dangerous statements that result in unnecessary fear and concern.

Fake forecast for Hurricane Irma from August 31, 2017 with a 14-day cone into Texas. This was misrepresentation. Image annotated by WNCT in Greenville, NC.

The topic of false headlines on social media is nothing new. One famous example that became viral occurred in September 2017, after Hurricane Harvey had just devastated the Texas coast. It showed a 14-day forecast and cone with Hurricane Irma moving straight for the same coast (in reality, it turned into Florida). In the winter, strongly worded posts are often made on social media as well of things like “deadly blizzards” which can be a week or more away and based on highly uncertain or single model runs. It’s clickbait to get attention, plain and simple.

Pattern recognition for hurricanes by number of days out in a general scenario. Image from KATC in Lafayette, LA.

There is no reliable way to predict the track of storms 14 days out and any models at that range are purely speculative. At that range, they might as well be throwing darts at a dartboard from 100 feet away and hoping they land in the triple-20. It isn’t until about a week or so out where the general synoptic scenario can be established, where the overall patterns can identify general threats. It isn’t until about three days out where the convective patterns can be identified and the exact locations honed in for the most part. Those timelines can be even more condensed if the models don’t agree with each other at all (case in point: Hurricane Joaquin in 2015, where one model correctly sent it out to sea while others curved it into the east coast). As a result, models should be treated as simply guidance and not gospel, and ensembles should be used as a range of possibilities. However, nothing is more important than the official forecast provided by the National Weather Service (and conveyed, with minor adjustments, by local meteorologists).

Image of tweet submitted by the New York Post on September 8, 2021, falsely suggesting that Hurricane Larry was hitting the Northeast.

False news headlines

Another problem that occasionally results is false news headlines, especially on their social media pages. One example was a tweet posted on September 8, 2021 by the New York Post (left) which mentioned that Hurricane Larry was bringing threats of flash flooding and tornadoes to the Northeast. That occurred while the public in the region was very anxious and was also recovering from the destructive impacts a week earlier from the remnants of Hurricane Ida. That storm resulted in catastrophic flooding and numerous tornadoes, resulting in at least 52 deaths in the region and tens of billions of dollars in damage.

In reality, Hurricane Larry (clearly visible on the image) was to the southeast of Bermuda, more than 1,000 miles away from the US east coast. It was (and continues to be) forecast to pass east of Bermuda and then approach the island of Newfoundland with a combination of wind, rainfall and high surf threats. Regardless, it will stay far away from the US. As far as the rain and tornado threats (which largely under-performed), those were due to an approaching cold front from the west that was moving through the Northeast on that day. In fact, the front was the one which turned Larry northward and kept it well off the coast. The only impacts to the US are high surf and rip currents on the Atlantic coastal beaches.

It’s not the first time that a news organization has misrepresented the weather forecast. In January 2021, a retracted article in a magazine mentioned that the Fultondale, AL tornado (which killed one person) was a “rare January tornado” that hit “without warning”, both of which were incorrect. We also often hear those latter terms in events, except that significant tornadoes almost never hit without at least some warning these days. Even weak tornadoes are usually preceded by at least a severe thunderstorm warning. It is true that many news outlets (particularly in print) do not have meteorologists on their staff, but it doesn’t make it any better. Headlines should always have to be correct, especially in an era where the news media is not well liked by a large proportion of the population.

It’s actually a crime to impersonate the NWS

Most of us are probably unaware of this, but it came to my attention — thanks to Katie Nickolaou, who is the morning meteorologist at Siouxland News in Sioux City, IA — that it is actually a federal crime to impersonate the National Weather Service. According to Statute 2074 of Title 18 of the United States Code:

Whoever knowingly issues or publishes any counterfeit weather forecast or warning of weather conditions falsely representing such forecast or warning to have been issued or published by the Weather Bureau, United States Signal Service, or other branch of the Government service, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than ninety days, or both.

That law is rarely enforced, but it is worth mentioning for those who publish counterfeit forecasts, which some amateur forecasts clearly are, and at the same time claim that they are coming from the NWS and not their own thoughts.

Local meteorologists (and trusted websites and weather companies) do have variances from local forecasts in terms of temperature, precipitation chances and other local factors, however, those typically are modest and they are often using the official NWS forecasts as a baseline. In addition, hurricane track forecasts, weather warnings and other such models are almost always coincident with the official forecasts, albeit with different terminology to represent the same thing in order to make things clearer to the public. They also specifically mention that they are coming from their own thoughts and at the same time. They are generally also trained and trusted meteorologists and scientists themselves, so they know what they are doing and also understand their local area too.

Conclusion

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought the discussion of misinformation to the forefront. There is plenty of misinformation going around in the weather world too and social media is a common place for it to spread rapidly. Once it is spreading, it is too late to turn back as screenshots will likely be taken. It is imperative that trusted sources be the ones you go to. Meteorologists across the country are not afraid to speak out loud and clear when there is misinformation going on — whether from a news site, a politician, an institution or amateur forecasters. Unlike with medical news, there is no mechanism yet for social media giants to have false forecasts reported, but that doesn’t make it any more right to post fake forecasts.

Being a Weather-Ready Nation means having the trusted sources providing the information for the largest number of people possible. Wasting time having to correct viral sources takes a lot away from the real forecasts and that can also create major confusion. Speaking with one voice is critical. I’ve learned that lesson and recent conferences have focused on that. Inter-agency cooperation is critical.

— Meteorologist Craig Ceecee —