Tossing the Kurds Under the Bus…. and Strategic Thinking?
Tags: Syria, Syrian Refugees, Kurds, ISIS, Turkey

The Kurds have been fighting alongside US troops in many conflicts for a very long time. In Syria, they were part of the front lines against ISIS. Many sacrificed life, livelihood and limbs to fight with us against our common enemies. Their families also paid a high price along the way. The Kurds also fought with the US in Iraq against Saddam and against extremists. Tossing them under the bus by withdrawing our troops and equipment to allow a Turkish invasion of the north of Syria, where some of our former allied Kurds live, work, have families and fought, is a massive betrayal in the long list of betrayals of the Kurds that the US and many others were part of. One wonders how long the Kurds will put up with betrayals before they truly go rogue against us and our allies.

The Turks see the Kurds as a threat, and see the Kurds of Northern Syria, our former allies, as a particularly intense threat. But does that justify our leaving them behind to be slaughtered by the Turkish Army? No. If we considered them a threat to our security in the past then why did we work with them? They were not a threat to us. They may be after this betrayal.

There is an old Kurdish phrase that the only friends of the Kurds are the mountains. And when one looks back at the history of the Kurds, including their moment of potentially having their own nation in the 1920s, one sees lots of betrayals and deceits.

The conflicts between the Kurds and Turkey have been brutal and costly, with the losses of tens of thousands of lives, but one must think that there is a better way to deal with differences than intermittent slaughters and outright war combined with terrorism. Indeed, there must be a better way. However, moving out of the way for the Turkish Army to invade Northern Syria, a place that had a real chance for development and at least some form of democracy, is not in the right direction toward even a short-term peace between these long-term enemies. There must be a better way, but almost nobody is talking about these new ways.

I expect more horrors to occur in Syria because of this. I also expect the this move to move out of the way will make Iran, Russia, China, Assad and ISIS stronger in Syria, in the region — and beyond.

It used to be a deal was a deal, and that a handshake with honor meant something. What happened to that? Many in the region have questioned US resolve, reliability and straightforwardness for some time. This betrayal will not help with our reputation in the region and in the world.

The Turkish Army is known for its power and brutality against the Kurds. I see this likely happening again. When the world sees the film clips and videos of more refugees, freed ISIS fighters running amok after being freed from the prisons the Kurds kept in the north of Syria, and Kurdish and other families weeping in fear, what will they think of us? What will happen with we ask the Kurds for help in the future? And the Kurds have been a great help in the past on many issues.

Whatever happens to the Kurds in Northern Syria will have reverberations in other Kurdish areas in Turkey, Iran, Iraq and elsewhere. Many young Kurds may become radicalized, and those already radicalized may become even more violently so. And who is to say this radicalization will stay in the region?

The threat to “obliterate” the Turkish economy if they are too brutal in the invasion is a weak one when one looks at the data. The US is only about 6 percent of Turkish foreign trade. It is only about 10 percent of its foreign direct investment. It holds only about 10 percent of Turkish debt. Turkey’s strongest economic and financial relations are by far with Europe and Asia. And these countries will unlikely follow along with us to obliterate the economy of a NATO ally, and a big trading partner for them — as well as a source of many guest workers and new and long-term citizens, who still feel for their original land of Turkey.

Where could this leave us? Assad will solidify his power in the country he viciously destroyed to stay in power and rob its people. Russia will retain and strengthen its hold on Syria and, its reputation of power and solidity in Syria and the region. Iran will become stronger in Syria and along its crescent of hegemony. China will find more economic deals in Syria and in the region. ISIS, which will likely metamorphose into something else anyway, could find itself with a stronger base in Syria. It could also build in an increasingly unstable neighbor to Syria, Iraq. The southeast of Turkey could go into Turmoil. Iran’s northeast could become more unstable.

Extremism will increase. Moderation will decline. Chaos will grow. The national security of the US will be worse for all of this. If this is strategic thinking, then it is upside-down strategic thinking that will breed more chaos, more enemies, less allies and a whole lot of trouble for us and our allies in the region.

Please look at the maps of the region that show Syria’s connections to other areas via transport, economics, extremism and more. Halloween in coming on October 31. It came to Northern Syria yesterday — without the candy and children’s joy, and lots of fright and nightmares to come. Indeed, many children, including many young children could die in Northern Syria because of this. In addition, many may have to leave their homes and region to create yet another refugee flow. A refugee flow to where? Turkey? No. Lebanon? Maybe, yet they are under massive refugee pressures already. Iraq? Northern Iraq is a likely place, if they can get there. Europe? Yes. North Africa? Maybe? Why does this sound so horrifyingly similar?

Do we ever learn?

All opinions are Dr. Sullivan’s alone.

Source of photo: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/u-s-troops-begin-pulling-out-of-syria-leaving-kurds-without-support