WCC Power Rankings: The Inevitable Triumvirate Persists
By: Will Maupin
Tags: Basketball, Sports, College Basketball, West Coast Conference, College Sports

1. Gonzaga Bulldogs

Record: 4–0

Previous: 1st

AP: 1st (no change)

KenPom: 2nd (-1)

Last week: W 99–88 vs. №3 Iowa

This week: 12/21 vs. Northwestern State, 12/22 vs. Northwestern State, 12/26 vs. №17 Virginia (Fort Worth)

There’s nothing left for Gonzaga to prove.

The Zags opened the season with a 12 point win over then №6 Kansas. The Jayhawks haven’t lost since. They’re ranked №5 now. They blew out Auburn by 23 and it’s barely even worth mentioning. Then they beat a West Virginia team that was ranked 11th. It’s the Mountaineers’ only loss so far, and they’ve climbed to №8 in the polls.

Over the weekend the Zags took on the №3 ranked Iowa Hawkeyes. They led by as many as 20 points. They completely controlled the game for the entire 40 minutes. Even as Iowa made a late push, the Zags had all the answers.

In the span of four games Gonzaga has defeated three top-15 teams. Looking at KenPom, they’ve taken down three top-10 teams.

Gonzaga was the preseason number one team in the country. A month into the season they’ve proven completely and totally deserving of that title.

The Zags hadn’t played in 17 days. They hadn’t practiced more than a few times during that span. Some players and some coaches had COVID. Luka Garza put up 30 points and got Corey Kispert and Drew Timme, the team’s leading scorers, to foul out.

Despite all of that, Gonzaga won easily and convincingly.

Jalen Suggs had 27 points and knocked down seven threes on 10 attempts. Joel Ayayi, a guard, grabbed 18 rebounds (to go along with 11 points and six assists). Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Cook came off the bench to provide a steady hands and knock down big shots. Oumar Ballo scored 6 points on 3–3 shooting in just nine minutes of action, showing for the second game in a row that the big freshman is ready to play a role.

There’s nothing left to prove, but they’re not done. The Zags added another ranked team to their schedule and will play Virginia on Saturday — and a pair of games on back-to-back days against a team that is winless vs. D-I this season.

2. BYU Cougars

Record: 7–2

Previous: 2nd

AP: Receiving Votes (35th)

KenPom: 69th (+10)

Last week: W 72–62 at №18 San Diego State

This week: 12/21 vs. Texas Southern, 12/23 vs. Weber State (Salt Lake City)

The Cougars had a good seven day stretch that saw them beat arch-rival Utah on a Saturday and then former conference rival San Diego State the following Friday. They’re by far the Cougars best wins of the season. Entering the game against Utah, BYU ranked 92nd on KenPom. They’ve climbed 23 spots in the days since.

In last week’s rankings I mentioned how impressive it was that BYU’s supporting cast stepped up as Alex Barcello struggled against Utah. Barcello was back in form against the Aztecs, putting up a 22, 7 and 7 line to lead the Cougars to an upset win. He didn’t have to do it all, though, as the Cougars played a nearly ideal game considering what’s on the roster. Matt Haarms put up 10 points on 5–5 shooting and grabbed eight rebounds in what was his best game as a Cougar so far.

A player to keep an eye on is sophomore Spencer Johnson. The sophomore shooter from Salt Lake Community College had a three-game run against Utah State, USC and St. John’s in which he played no more than 6 minutes per game. He averaged just 0.7 points over those three games. In the Cougars’ nine other games, he’s averaging 19.3 minutes and 8.7 points. His three point shooting has been streaky, but it’s clear that when he plays he produces.

After two games against talented rivals, the Cougars will get a pair of tune up games to close out the non-conference. “That’s the type of schedule that gets you fired. So pray for me. Pray for us,” Mark Pope said when BYU released its non-conference slate. Well, barring disaster the Cougars will enter WCC play with a 9–2 record, a handful of good wins and no bad losses. Cougar fans don’t have to worry about Pope getting fired anytime soon. At this rate, they’ll have to worry about him being lured away by a bigger job soon enough.

3. Saint Mary’s Gaels

Record: 8–1

Previous: 3rd

KenPom: 60th (+6)

Last week: W 80–75 vs. Eastern Washington, W 53–33 vs. Colorado State

This week: 12/22 vs. San Diego State (San Luis Obispo)

The Gaels are on an eight-game winning streak that has seen them climb a full 20 spots on KenPom.

Last week they played a pair of quality mid-majors and got the job done in completely opposite ways. Against a game Eastern Washington team loaded with talented veterans, the Gaels let their offense do the talking by scoring 80 points and 1.16 points per possession. Colorado State, on the other hand, saw Saint Mary’s play lock-down defense. The Rams, expected to be a quality offensive team this season, were held to 33 points.

To be fair, Saint Mary’s offense wasn’t pretty either. The Gaels scored 0.83 points per possession, their lowest in a win this season and just third time under a point per trip.

As was the case last week, we need to talk about Tommy Kuhse. The fifth-year senior and four-year walk-on in his first scholarship season is turning into a legit star for Saint Mary’s. He’s averaging 15.4 points and 6.3 assists per game. After setting a career high two weeks ago with 24 against UTEP, Kuhse dropped 34 last week against Eastern Washington. He’s got 57 assists to just 16 turnovers so far this season. Nine games in he’s nearly half way to his total of 124 from a season ago, and the Gaels don’t have the level of shot makers they had a year ago. It’s astounding and if you say you saw this coming, you’re lying. Kuhse is playing at a first team all-WCC level this year.

A potential concern for the Gaels is an injury suffered by Alex Ducas in the first half against Colorado State. The sophomore has been having a strong season averaging 10.9 points and 5.3 rebounds per game, both of which are second on the team. Ducas was helped off the court and taken to the locker room before being ruled out with a left leg injury. That’s all we know for now.

4. San Francisco Dons

Record: 6–4

Previous: 4th

KenPom: 72nd (no change)

Last week: L 74–64 at Oregon, W 68–65 vs. Grand Canyon (Las Vegas)

This week: CANCELED vs. Cal State Fullerton

There’s no shame in losing to Oregon in Eugene, but the Dons probably want to have that game back. They couldn’t hit the broadside of a barn but managed to lose by only 10 points. San Francisco went just 2–14 from deep in the first half even though most of those shots were open looks.

The Dons have shot under 30% from three in three games this season, and they’ve lost all three.

They bounced back with a close win over a decent, but not great, Grand Canyon team. That match-up pitted Damari Milstead against his former team. Grand Canyon largely squandered Milstead’s talent in his two seasons in Phoenix, or so I thought. Against the ‘Lopes, Milstead recorded 0 points in just eight minutes. He’s averaging just 6.7 per game this season. I had him on my preseason all-WCC second team. My expectation was the guy who scored more than 2,300 points as a prep star would shine in his return to the Bay Area. That hasn’t happened.

As the schedule looks now, the Dons will have 25 regular season games. They have nothing scheduled until the start of conference play. Teams are allowed to play no more than 27 regular season games this season, which means the Dons can add a game or two should they choose.

5. LMU Lions

Record: 5–3

Previous: 7th

KenPom: 130th (+4)

Last week: W 51–48 vs. UC Irvine, W 76–52 vs. Cal Poly

This week: Nothing scheduled

For now, that’s it for the Lions until WCC play. Looking back at their non-conference performance it’s hard not to be impressed. This was a program treading water in the WCC cellar under Mike Dunlap, but so far under Stan Johnson there’s a palpable energy around the Lions.

Sophomore Keli Leaupepe blew up early in the season to become one of the dudes of college basketball this season. While he’s returned to Earth since moving into the starting lineup three games ago — if we’re being honest, he’s played his three worst games of the season since becoming a starter — he still gives the Lions something they haven’t had since Anthony Ireland almost a decade ago: a player to latch on to. No disrespect to James Batemon or Eli Scott, who have been without question great players for the Lions in the years since Ireland, but just look at Leaupepe and you’ll understand.

Joe Quintana, who missed all of last season, is having a breakout junior year and averaging 10.8 points per game. Eli Scott had a slow start, and his scoring is down a tick from a season ago (13.9 ppg, compared to 15.5), but he’s found his footing and is back to stuffing the stat sheet. Sophomore Dameane Douglas, like Quintana, is coming off a redshirt year and it appears he made the most of it. The all-freshman performer is now the Lions leading scorer at 14 points per game. There are some real pieces on this roster, and they’re playing well together.

The resume might not jump off the page, but it’s nothing to scoff at (like the next team up). KenPom rates the Lions’ schedule as the 155th toughest in the country so far. Saint Mary’s, with it’s 8–1 record and handful of good but not great wins, rates as the 189th toughest. And yeah, the Lions lost back-to-back games against Minnesota, but they were competitive in both and nearly stole the second.

If this is truly the end of the non-conference for LMU, as a fan I think you have to take a 5–3 record against this schedule. In a pandemic, with a new coach, it’s hard to ask for anything more considering where the program has been for so long. I can’t see the Lions finishing in the top-half of the standings, but they’re clearly better than they were a season ago. A reasonable expectation, for now, is to follow the path that Damon Stoudamire has taken Pacific on in his first four-plus years in Stockton.

6. Santa Clara Broncos

Record: 6–0

Previous: 5th

KenPom: 117th (-2)

Last week: W 88–65 vs. Fresno Pacific, CANCELED vs. San Jose State

This week: 12/22 vs. Colorado State (Santa Cruz), CANCELED at Oregon State, 12/23 vs. Bethesda (Santa Cruz) [D-III]

Santa Clara spent much of the season to date in Santa Cruz, getting in games at a Gatorade League arena because they weren’t allowed to play in the Leavey Center. That worked, for the most part, and allowed the Broncos to put six games on their resume and six games in the win column. The coronavirus restrictions are starting to catch up to them, though.

This month the Broncos have lost scheduled games against New Mexico State, Sacramento State, San Jose State and Oregon State. Of those, New Mexico State and then Oregon State would’ve been the biggest tests of the young season for the Broncos. Since they didn’t happen, Santa Clara’s toughest test came against the team ranked 191st in KenPom. Which is to say, more of an open note quiz than a test.

So, how good is Santa Clara? Who knows. I’ve said basically the same thing in this spot for three weeks now. I’m tired of repeating myself and there’s nothing else to say. They’re beating bad teams. Go back and read the past two power rankings for actual analysis. It’s week or two old now but it still applies.

7. Pacific Tigers

Record: 3–1

Previous: 6th

KenPom: 134th (-1)

Last week: W 92–64 at Westmont (NAIA)

This week: CANCELED vs. St. Katherine (NAIA), CANCELED at Cal State Northridge

UPDATE: Within minutes of this story being published the Tigers announced that they are going onto their second coronavirus pause of the season. All remaining non-conference games are canceled and their conference opener against Portland, January 2nd, is postponed until a later date. Tigers will be shut down for at least 14 days.

It hasn’t been easy for the Tigers this season. A coronavirus pause shut the team down after their Dec. 2 win over Montana State. They didn’t play again for 18 days and had to cancel five games during that span. Their first game back was on the road against an NAIA team.

Yep, the Tigers played a true road game against a non-Division I opponent. In the same sport where power conference teams refuse to schedule home-and-homes with mid-major programs. Yeah yeah yeah, it’s the pandemic year. The Tigers, like everyone else, will go to extremes to fill a schedule this season. Still, kudos to Pacific for being willing to put themselves in that position.

That said, their only game in 20 days has been against an NAIA school. Which means there’s not much to say about the Tigers right now. Based on what they have upcoming we won’t know too much about this squad until they’re a few games into WCC play. It’s safe to say they’re not what they were a year ago, but how much they’ll slip is anyone’s guess.

8. Pepperdine Waves

Record: 4–4

Previous: 8th

KenPom: 114th (-13)

Last week: W 91–68 vs. Concordia (D-II), L 75–63 vs. UC Santa Barbara

This week: CANCELED vs. Tarleton State, 12/23 vs. Cal State Bakersfield

“Is it reasonable to expect a massive jump from this team because/in spite of the fact that it is basically the same team that it has been for the past two years?”

That’s from my preseason power rankings in which I had the Waves fourth in the league. The answer is, no, it was not reasonable. To the extent that there has been a jump, and even that is debatable depending on what you’re looking at, that has been completely offset by a pair of head-scratching losses.

Just like a season ago the Waves show up in the big games. They took UCLA to triple overtime. They led by as many as 16 against San Diego State. They lost both. Just like they did in every big game last season. In those moments you see how talented the roster is, and it truly is talented. Then they drop home games to Northridge and Santa Barbara.

Sure, Santa Barbara is looking like the early favorite to win the Big West. But if you’re trying to crack the top-three in the WCC. If you truly belong there, and in the NCAA at-large conversation that comes with climbing that high, you don’t lose to the Big West favorite at home. You shouldn’t on the road either. You certainly don’t lose to a middle-of-the-pack at best team from the Big West at home, either.

So, if the record is no better, is the team actually better than a year ago? Eh…

Last season the Waves averaged 104.3 points per 100 possessions and gave up 105.4 against D-I competition. This year they’re averaging 103.6 and giving up 104. The offense is worse, the defense is better, but it’s not by much. Their efficiency margin, the difference between the number of points they average per 100 possessions and the number of points they give up, is -0.4 compared to -1.1 a year ago.

So, sure, they’re better, but barely. And they’re still getting outscored by their opposition on a per-possession basis. Their -0.4 raw efficiency margin against D-I ranks seventh in the WCC this season.

9. Portland Pilots

Record: 5–2

Previous: 9th

KenPom: 270th (-7)

Last week: W 88–74 vs. College of Idaho (NAIA), L 80–41 at Oregon

This week: 12/22 vs. Montana State

The Pilots got an overtime win against a dismal Oregon State team week before last and people, myself included, started getting a bit excited about Portland. Well, it’s back to reality after being nearly doubled up by the Ducks down in Eugene last week.

When the Pilots picked up that win over the Beavers there was talk about how this program had won just one WCC game over the previous two seasons combined, and now they’re 4–1 (then became 5–1) with a road win over a Pac 12 team. Great story, right?

Well, that same Pilots team that went 1–16 against the WCC last season also owned a 5–1 record to start the season. They bumped it to 6–1, and then to 8–3, and then went 1–20 to close the year. The season prior, when the Pilots went 0–17 against against the WCC, they didn’t start 5–1, but they did start 5–2 before going 2–23 the rest of the way. Worth mentioning, both of those seasons involved two wins over non-D1 competition. This year, the Pilots already have three.

Don’t get your hopes up.

10. San Diego Toreros

Record: 1–3

Previous: 10th

KenPom: 190th (-25)

Last week: W 70–61 at Cal Poly, L 85–53 at UC Irvine

This week: CANCELED at Arizona, CANCELED vs. Long Beach State, CANCELED vs. Cal State Fullerton

San Diego was late to the party, not able to play their first game until Dec. 9 as a result of starting the season on a coronavirus pause. They’re leaving the party early, too, with another coronavirus issue in the program forcing the team back on pause. Their remaining non-conference schedule has been canceled.

On one hand, the Toreros have played the fourth toughest slate among WCC teams so far. On the other, they’re dead last in raw efficiency margin at -20.2 points per 100 possessions.

If you were wondering why the NCAA isn’t counting this year against student-athletes’ eligibility, look at what has happened to San Diego. The Toreros had some promise, and a ton of transfers who would help Sam Scholl fully take hold of the program, maybe not in year three, but certainly in year four. Thankfully, year three can now officially be a mulligan. I hope the athletic department understands that.