Ben’s NJ Congressional Primary Result Rundown
By: Ben Kestenbaum
Tags: New Jersey, Elections, Politics

Picking Favorites | The County Line

One important bit of information that you need to know about primaries in New Jersey, is what does the County Line mean. Each county party, Democrat and Republican, can vote to give a candidate running in that county a slogan on the ballot that matches the party, and they will appear in the same column as the rest of candidates with the line on that ballot, and are given a more favorable position on the ballot in most cases. Far more often than not, the candidate with the line in NJ wins the primary, as it is a sign of organizational support within the state. Only 1 candidate who had a majority of the lines in a district lost their primary this year, Brigid Callahan Harrison in the 2nd district. Some countries choose not to award the line, but most do.

Senate Showdown | Booker Landslide and Close Mehta Win

The Republican Senate Primary, Data from NJ Secretary of State

The only remotely competitive statewide primary was for the Republican Nomination to take on Cory Booker in the fall, a race I currently rate as Safe Democratic. Rik Mehta, a lawyer from Morris County and former Deputy Director for the FDA Division of Medical Policy Programs, won the nomination against Hirsh Singh, an engineer who had four county lines in South Jersey, compared to the vast majority of the State Republican Party which backed Mehta. Mehta won the primary by slightly over 2% against Singh. The race between the two was closer than I expected, with Mehta winning comfortably in most of the state, while Singh did well in South Jersey, winning 5 counties there, including Atlantic and Ocean Counties by over 60% each. Sign also won Warren County, while Patricia Flanagan won Passaic County.

The Democratic Senate Primary, Data from NJ Secretary of State

Meanwhile on the Democratic Side, Senator Cory Booker easily beat back Lawrence Hamm, the Former Chair of Bernie Sander’s New Jersey Campaign, defeating him by a landslide 75% blowout.

Camelot Prevails In South Jersey | Amy Kennedy Wins Large Victory in 2nd District

Democratic Congressional Primary in the 2nd District, Data from NJ Secretary of State

Meanwhile, one of the most watched races in the state, the Democratic Primary to take on party switcher Jeff Van Drew in the 2nd District, was unexpectedly not remotely close. Amy Kennedy, a teacher and wife of Former Congressman Patrick Kennedy, won in a landslide against Professor Brigid Callahan Harrison and House Oversight Committee Official Will Cunningham. Harrison had the county line in nearly every county, except for Atlantic, which gave it to Kennedy, and Ocean and Salem Counties, which did not award the line. Atlantic County made up a sizable amount of the primary vote, accounting for nearly 40% of votes cast in the primary, the most of any individual county in the district. Kennedy won by a decisive 40% margin over Harrison, her main competitor. Kennedy swept every county in the district, none of them being particularly close except for Gloucester which Kennedy won by 7% against Harrison. Kennedy carried Atlantic County by nearly 62%, which helped drive up her margin against the rest of the field. Kennedy had the support of Governor Phil Murphy, compared to Harrison who had the backing of State Senate President Steve Sweeney. Sweeney is generally considered to be aligned with George Norcross, an influential figure in the party.

Jeff Van Drew, meanwhile, won his primary only facing minor opposition from Robert Patterson, a former Trump trump administration official and 2016 Republican Candidate in NJ-01. Van Drew won by 65%. I currently rate this race as a Tossup, as the only polling that has been done of the race has been Internal Polls, most of which are from Democratic firms, and all of them have the race within 5%, with Van Drew leading the 2 from earlier in the summer, and Kennedy leading the 2 from early August.

Riding the Ocean County Wave to Primary Victory | David Richter wins bitter Primary in 3rd District

Republican Congressional Primary in the 3rd District, Data from NJ Secretary of State

Meanwhile, in the most competitive House Primary, Businessman David Richter handily defeated Former Burlington County Freeholder Kate Gibbs, by around 22%, for the Republican Nomination to take on Congressman Andy Kim in the 3rd District, which he flipped narrowly in 2018 against Congressman Tom MacArthur. Richter had the organizational line in Ocean County, while Gibbs had the line in Burlington County. Both counties counted for an approximately even amount of votes in the Republican Primary. Richter won the vote in Ocean County by a decisive almost 57% landslide over Gibbs, while Gibbs won the Burlington County vote by a smaller 13%. This was a pretty bitter primary between the two, and both candidates prior to the primary, lagged in fundraising compared to Congressman Kim who has a sizable cash on hand advantage. I currently rate this race as Likely Democratic, as while the race might be close, all data suggests that Andy Kim is in a strong position as he seeks a second term.

Fundraising Machine Carries On | Gottheimer Wins in 5th District against Kreibich

Democratic Congressional Primary in the 5th District, Data from NJ Secretary of State

Meanwhile, over in North Jersey, 2nd term Congressman Josh Gottheimer won a large victory against Glen Rock Councilwoman Arati Kreibich in the Democratic Primary in the 5th District. Gottheimer won by 33% against Kreibich, who challenged the moderate Congressman from the left. This victory was in large part due to a 34% margin in Bergen County, which accounted for over 79% of the vote in the district, by far the largest among in one county in the primary. Kreibich received some national progressive support, including endorsements from Senator Bernie Sanders and Congresswoman Ayanna Pressley, while Gottheimer received support from high ranking Democrats including Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and New Jersey Senator Cory Booker.

2 Internal Polls were released during the primary, both of which showed Gottheimer with a very sizable lead, while a Data for Progress poll showed that with pushing, Gottheimers lead would narrow but this never panned out and Kreibich received about 33% of the vote which was about 10–15% more than Gottheimer’s internal poll, and the unadjusted Data for Progress poll showed, and she did receive the most votes out of any congressional primary challenger in NJ in at least the past decade that did not feature more than one incumbent, as far as I could tell. Gottheimer also out raised Kreibich by a massive amount, which hindered her ability to run ads and maintain a large campaign, something that Gottheimer had more than enough resources to do. Kreibich carried one municipality in the district, Glen Rock, where she is a councilwoman. She won the town by around 13%. I currently rate this race as Safe Democratic, and while the stronger of the two Republican primary candidates won, it is unlikely that Congressman Gottheimer is in serious danger in November barring something unforeseen occurring.

McCann Denied Repeat of 2018 | Pallotta wins big in 5th District against McCann, Castillo, and Big Jim

Republican Congressional Primary in the 5th District, Data from NJ Secretary of State

Meanwhile, on the Republican Side, Frank Pallotta, a former investment banker, won the Republican Primary, defeating his main competitor, John McCann, who won the nomination in 2018 and lost by nearly 14% to Congressman Gottheimer. Pallotta defeated McCann by nearly 19%, carrying the Passaic, Sussex, and Warren county portions of the district by 34%, 50%, and 38% respectively, which combined account for about 48% of the primary vote. Meanwhile McCann won the Bergen County portion of the district, which still accounts for the most votes count in the primary, nearly 52% to be exact. McCann carried it by around 5% , which was not enough to overcome Pallotta’s advantage in the rest of the district.

Results largely followed the County Line here, with McCann winning Bergen where he had the line, Pallotta carrying the two counties he had the line in, plus Sussex, which did not give either the County Line. Meanwhile, two other candidates ran in the primary, James “Big Jim” Baldini, a teacher, who as i have noted in the past, has a section on his campaign website dedicated to Pizza and Ice Cream Reviews, and Hector Castillo, a perennial candidate. Meanwhile, Montvale Mayor Mike Ghassali, and State Assemblyman Bob Auth both ran for the nomination at one point but withdrew their names and did not appear on the Ballot. However, as noted above, I rate this district as Safe Democrat, and the current national environment, as well as trends in the district, and Congressman Gottheimer’s massive $8,000,000 plus cash on hand, should help him easily win re-election.

No Upsets on the Hudson | Sires beats Oseguera in 8th District, held under 70% in Hudson County

Democratic Congressional Primary in the 8th District, Data from NJ Secretary of State

In Hudson County, Congressman Albio Sires fended off a primary challenge by Hector Oseguera, who was endorsed by former Presidential Candidate Marianne Williamson as well as numerous progressive groups. Will Sheehan, a former Navy Seal Intelligence Official also ran. Sires won the 8th district primary by 43% over Oseguera, due to party support as well as a history in the district having represented parts of it as Mayor of West New York as well as in the State Assembly. However Oseguera kept Sires vote share in Hudson County under 70%, something that no other primary challenger has done as far as I can recall.

Watson-Coleman Landslide | Incumbent beats Lisa McCormick by over 80%

Democratic Congressional Primary in the 12th District, Data from NJ Secretary of State

Congresswoman Bonnie Watson Coleman easily defeated Lisa McCormick with an absolute blowout 80% margin of victory, in the Democratic Primary for the 12th district, which includes Trenton and Princeton. McCormick challenged Senator Bob Menendez in 2018, winning 37.7% of the vote.

Pallone, Pascrell, Payne easily beat Primary Challengers | Incumbent’s win big in 6th, 9th, and 10th Districts.

Congressman Frank Pallone easily won his primary for re-election in the 6th district, defeating Andrew Yang backed Candidate Russ Cirincione by a nearly 60% margin. Amani al-Khatahtbeh also ran but did not gain a significant amount of votes.

Congressman Bill Pascrell, who has represented the 9th district since redistricting, easily won the Democratic Primary against Zinovia Spezakis, an environmental activist and tech investor. Pascrell won by a decisive 60% margin.

Congressman Donald Payne Jr, who has held the Newark based 10th district since he won a special election to succeed his father who represented the district from 1989 until 2012, easily won re-nomination last night with almost 90% of the vote, over Rutgers Law School professor Eugene Mazo and John Flora, a teacher.

Blue Wave Unlikely to Recede| Democrats favored in 10 of 12 Districts, Van Drew in danger.

The Democrats are favored to retain 10 of the State’s 12 congressional districts including 3 of the ones they flipped in 2018. I currently rate the 3rd as Likely Democratic, the 7th district as Leans Democratic, while I have the 11th as Safe Democratic. The Democrat in the most danger is arguably Tom Malinowski who is facing a challenge from State Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr, the son of popular former governor Tom Kean. Meanwhile, Jeff Van Drew, who defected to the Republican Party in 2020, after flipping the 2nd district in 2018, is hoping to defeat Amy Kennedy in a race I currently rate as a Tossup.