Learning Speed: What Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk, And Bill Gates Know That Most People Don’t
By: Michael Simmons
Tags: Productivity, Learning, Success, Careers, Life Lessons

Learning Speed: What Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk, And Bill Gates Know That Most People Don’t Michael Simmons Follow Feb 22 · 18 min read

Over the last five years, I’ve spent over a thousand hours uncovering the most surprising and important learning habits of the world’s top innovators, like Elon Musk, Bill Gates, Warren Buffett and Jeff Bezos.

More recently, I’ve realized there is a deeper pattern that connects all these innovators together. That pattern is what I call hidden games.

Most people play popular games — games with predefined boundaries that are played in crowded sandboxes. Popular games are often those with the most short-term, concrete rewards. For example, a popular career game is getting good grades, going to a top university, and then graduating into a prestigious job.

Hidden games are played in sandboxes that people don’t even realize exist. Hidden games have a higher return, but they are more long-term and abstract. For example, a hidden game is starting a business in an unsexy industry (i.e., building tunnels with Elon Musk).

Alone, popular games with immediate and obvious benefits often end up being quick fixes that plateau or fail. Hidden games that are harder and unsexy at first often end up having exponential benefits over time.

The innovators I’ve studied play both the following hidden and popular games…

It is a sad irony that this also seems to apply across other domains of life. Many of the things that feel the best in the short-term feel the worst in the long-term.

Playing hidden games allows these innovators to walk to their own tune, to make incredible innovations, and to be camouflaged even when they are well known. Hidden games have also changed my life. As a result of applying the hidden games I mentioned above to my life, I now spend 3–4 hours per day on deliberate learning focused on durable mental models that span disciplinary boundaries. Because of this long-term bet, my life has radically changed much faster than I expected. I went from forcing myself through the day with willpower to feeling like a kid in a candy store. I’ve gone from feeling like I don’t have any distinct perspectives to my writing making a small dent in millions of people’s lives. Finally, I’ve gone from struggling financially to not having to worry about money.

In this article, I add another crucially important but hidden game…

Inside The Hidden Game Of Speed

Frankly, I avoided speed. I avoided it until I noticed that top innovators weren’t just talking about it; they were swearing by it.

I came to this hidden game of speed as I read all the books on, and listened to over 100 interviews of Elon Musk, Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, and other innovators. Then, I went deeper by reading Blitzscaling by legendary Entrepreneur Reid Hoffman, Certain To Win about the greatest fighter pilot in history, Business @ The Speed Of Thought by Bill Gates, Lean Startup by thinker and entrepreneur Eric Ries, Competing Against Time: How Time-Based Competition is Reshaping Global Markets by management consultant George Stalk, Clockspeed: Winning Industry Control In The Age Of Temporary Advantage by MIT researcher Charles Fine and Speed As A Habit by public company CEO, Dave Girouard.

Here’s what I missed at first that most other people also miss…

How The Game Of Speed Is Underappreciated

I associated speed with being hurried, working long hours, low quality work, and feeling overwhelmed. I was wrong. There was a lot of nuance I didn’t appreciate — nuance like the quote below offers…

“Be quick, but don’t hurry.”

— John Wooden (most successful college basketball coach of all time)

As I dug deeper, I realized that speed isn’t fundamentally about “doing more” or “running faster.” Rather, it is more a way of thinking. For example, I noticed the innovators were actually talking about two things: execution speed and learning speed. Both are important, but they’re not the same. More on this later.

In this in-depth article, I will show you how speed can be the game changer you’re looking for to get ahead in your career and business whether or not you’re an entrepreneur.

To start, I want to show you some of the breadcrumbs I came across as I did my research that made me feel like I was missing something by not digging deeper on speed.

These Quotes Show How The World’s Top Innovators Swear By Speed

“Speed is the ultimate weapon in business. All else being equal, the fastest company in any market will win. Speed is a defining characteristic — if not the defining characteristic — of the leader in virtually every industry you look at.”

Dave Girouard, founder CEO of Upstart (public company), and former president of Google Enterprise Apps

“For pretty much any technology whatsoever, the progress is a function of how many iterations do you have, and how much progress do you make between each iteration.”

Elon Musk

“Everybody must realize that if you don’t meet customer demand quickly enough, without sacrificing quality, a competitor will.”

Bill Gates

“When people ask me that question, ‘What keeps you up at night?’ I always say speed.”

Mary Barra, CEO of General Motors

“The only way to win is to learn faster than everybody else.”

Eric Ries, creator of Lean Startup Movement

“Before product-market fit… just care about speed of iteration according to your customer feedback. So in terms of hiring, get people that can help you build the product faster… anything that minimizes the time between observing a need or a problem, and the execution or the fix for it.”

Patrick Collison, self-made billionaire founder of Stripe

“I still underestimate the compounding power of the rapid execution and iterated learning feedback loop. A commitment to this, over the course of a career, is the closest thing you can get to guaranteed success.” (Nov 24, 2020)

Sam Altman, former president of Y Combinator (world’s largest accelerator) and co-founder of OpenAI (with Elon Musk)

“Instead of launching a finely polished gem, companies now release a ‘minimum viable product,’ then get immediate feedback from customers, incorporate that feedback into the next iteration, release a slightly upgraded version, and repeat. Instead of design cycles that last years, the agile process takes weeks and produces results directly in line with consumer expectations.”

Peter Diamandis, creator of X-Prize

In addition, for the first seven years of Amazon’s existence, the core motto internally was “get big fast.” So central was this idea that at one company picnic, every one of the hundreds of employees was given a T-shirt that read, “Get Big Fast . . . Have Another Hot Dog!” For the first ten years of Facebook’s existence, the core motto was “move fast and break things.” When Google launched, Yahoo was the #1 search engine. Google’s core differentiating feature was load speed. Finally, the first book by Bill Gates is about speed.

Bottom line: Almost all of the world’s largest modern companies and top innovators had speed as their №1 value at one point or still do.

But, if you look closely, there is also a deeper lesson to be had from these quotes. The innovators aren’t just talking about one type of speed…

Execution Speed ≠ Learning Speed

Both learning speed and execution speed are important, but they’re often conflated with each other. This is a big deal.

Execution speed is about getting more done by either putting in more resources or by operating more efficiently. Examples of execution speed include:

Working a longer day

Making decisions faster

Finding a tool that helps you work faster

Making sure people aren’t waiting on one another to move forward

Removing a bottleneck in an assembly line

When most people think about speed, they’re really thinking about execution speed. This is why the idea of speed is associated with long hours and hurry.

Learning speed is special in two ways:

Higher leverage. You can 10x your learning speed through compounding and better learning techniques. At most, you can 2x how many hours you work.

You can 10x your learning speed through compounding and better learning techniques. At most, you can 2x how many hours you work. Fewer sacrifices. When you work too long, you sacrifice your health and relationships with friends and family.

You can increase your learning speed in several ways:

Spending more time learning

Learning knowledge that doesn’t become outdated so your knowledge compounds

Finding breakthrough knowledge in a sea of info overwhelm

Remembering what you learn so you can use it for the rest of your life

Creating an experimentation engine so you can rapidly try new ideas without procrastinating and without taking on huge risk

Systematically identifying and removing your blindspots

Execution speed is a popular game. Learning speed is a hidden game. On a broader cultural level, most people understand execution speed. Few understand learning speed and have anything more than a basic model of it.

By systematically increasing our execution speed and learning speed, five surprisingly powerful things happen in our careers and businesses…

#1. The pace of life is increasing, and our pace needs to increase with it or we will be left behind

“My models show that we are doubling the paradigm-shift rate every decade.” — Ray Kurzweil, Director of Engineering at Google

As I share in-depth in 5-Hour Rule: The Antidote To The Exploding Pace Of Modern Life, the rate of paradigm shift in the world is doubling every 10 years. This means that by 2040, the pace will be 4x what it is now. And in 100 years, it will be 1,024x what it is now.

These predictions were created by Google’s Director of Engineering, Ray Kurzweil, who is also arguably the #1 futurist in the world. Kurzweil created his prediction by plotting the largest milestones of biological and technological development on a single graph…

Kurzweil’s key events roughly mirror reference books that have compiled the most important historical events (Encyclopedia Britannica, the American Museum of Natural History, Carl Sagan’s “cosmic calendar,” and others).

A big implication of this prediction is that we shouldn’t expect things to return to normal. In fact, the opposite is more likely. Simultaneous destabilizing events are the new normal. The following chart shows how the quantity and magnitude of the “technological” tsunamis heading for us is unprecedented.

This increasing rate of change is important because the amount of effort we need to stay up-to-date increases with that rate of change. For example, if your profession (lawyer, doctor, accountant) suggests you spend 50 hours per year to stay up-to-date, that number will likely double in the next 10 years.

If we fall behind the rate of change in any given field, over time, we get outcompeted and fall further and further behind. In the worst-case scenario, we fall so far behind that it is virtually impossible to catch up. When we operate above the rate of change, we get further and further ahead.

When we are ahead of others, we are in demand, get promoted sooner, and can charge a premium. When we are behind others, we are the first to be let go.

I first realized the risk of falling behind while playing tennis growing up.

Things started off great. I played my first tournament when I was 12 years old and got to the finals. Emboldened by early success, I started playing more tournaments. In a few years, I got good enough where I was playing the best tennis players in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Delaware.

When I got to this higher level, I realized that many of the best players had started playing competitively when they were 7 years old. Not only that, some of them were going to school only half a day so they could play tennis for the other half. At that point, I became demoralized. Not only did they have a huge lead, they were still getting better faster than me. There wasn’t enough hours in the day for me to match their practice schedule and experience.

Even more demoralizing, I wasn’t even seeing the best players in the country or world; they were at a whole other level. That’s when I ultimately gave up on being a great tennis player. I was too far behind. That experience taught me an important lesson about compounding gains and what it takes to be world-class. I never wanted to fall that far behind again in any area that was important to me.

Bottom line: As the world becomes more global and digital, tens of millions of people will realize that they are further behind than they realized and that catching up feels impossible. The solution is to increase your learning speed now and not wait until you are forced to.

#2. Being a little bit faster can be the difference between winning and losing

“You can either set the pace of the market or be the one to react. Whoever is fastest out of the gate is the one everyone else has to react to.”

— Dave Girouard, Founder CEO of Upstart, and former President of Google Enterprise Apps

Little differences make all the difference.

In sports, winning a basketball game by one point is the difference between winning and losing. The outcome is binary.

In business, the same is true in winner-take-most markets. And, because of digitization, more and more industries are becoming winner-take-most. Once a company like Amazon or Facebook or Apple becomes the best, it’s extremely hard to unseat them.

In other words, what matters is relative speed, not absolute speed. If two people or companies are competing against the other, the one who is slightly faster has a huge edge, because the one going slower is constantly reactive and disoriented.

The greatest fighter pilot in US history, John Boyd, explains this disorientation phenomenon in one of his briefings:

“The ability to operate at a faster tempo or rhythm than an adversary enables one to fold the adversary back inside himself so that he can neither appreciate nor keep up with what is going on. He will become disoriented and confused…” — John Boyd

One of the greatest entrepreneurs of all-time Reid Hoffman echoes a similar phenomenon in business:

“Blitzscaling [acting fast] lets you set a pace that keeps your competitors gasping simply to keep up, affording them little time and space to counterattack. Because they’re focused on responding to your moves, which can often take them by surprise and force them to play catch-up, they don’t have as much time available to develop and execute differentiated strategies that might threaten your position.” —Reid Hoffman, Founder of LinkedIn

Jeff Bezos may be the best example of the application of this idea in business history. He built his company based on the idea of rapidly pioneering on behalf of customers rather than focusing on competitors…

“If you’re competitor-focused, you have to wait until there is a competitor doing something. Being customer-focused allows you to be more pioneering.” —Jeff Bezos

And, you’ve probably heard the following joke more than once…

“Two strangers were out backpacking in the woods. They came upon each other and decided to walk together. Around a bend in the trail they came face to face with a bear. One stranger drops to his knee, fetches his running shoes from his backpack and begins removing his hiking boots. The other stranger just stares and says, “There is no way you can run faster than that bear.” The kneeling stranger stands up and replies, “I don’t have to be faster than the bear. I only have to be faster than you.”

Bottom line: Being a little bit ahead vs being a little bit behind is the difference between winning and losing. Therefore, be proactive rather than reactive.

#3. Little gains compound into huge gains

Speed matters because small gains often compound into large gains over time. For example, let’s say you have two restaurants that launch on the same day, and each gets one review. One is just slightly better than the other. The better restaurant gets a 5-star review while the other gets a 4-star review.

Now, let’s assume that every potential customer visits the review site before deciding on a restaurant. They visit the more highly rated restaurant rather than the lower rated one, and then leave a review afterwards.

Let’s play out this scenario over a few rounds:

As each round passes, the slightly better restaurant gets more and more momentum. On day five, Restaurant 1 has five 5-star reviews while Restaurant 2 has only one 4-star review. For new customers, it becomes more and more of a no-brainer to visit Restaurant 1.

Bottom line: Speed can be the little advantage that makes all the difference over time. You can think of speed as being the first to release a minimum viable product to a market or to have a new skill that is really valuable to your employer. This is the first-mover advantage. You can also think of it as how quickly you iterate based on feedback from the market. This is the fastest-iterator advantage.

#4. Speed is the underdog’s #1 weapon

The fact that a startup can disrupt a huge company is startling when you think about it. The big company has tens of thousands of the world’s smartest employees, billions of dollars in profit, and a global reputation. The idea that a bunch of college dropouts eating ramen noodles while working out of their garage can outcompete and even surpass a huge company in 10 years is beyond belief. Yet, it has happened so often that it is now expected.

What’s going on here?

A few things…

Changing markets create new customer needs. In other words, customers are always open to a better mousetrap.

In other words, customers are always open to a better mousetrap. New technologies create new ways of meeting those needs. Because those technologies are new, individuals who go all-in early can rapidly become world experts.

Because those technologies are new, individuals who go all-in early can rapidly become world experts. Startups don’t have sunk costs, and they can rethink how to solve a new customer need from scratch. Then, they can go all-in on the solution and “burn their boats.” For startups, getting the new idea to work is existential, whereas it isn’t for the large company.

Then, they can go all-in on the solution and “burn their boats.” For startups, getting the new idea to work is existential, whereas it isn’t for the large company. Finally, startups can iterate faster than larger companies. Large companies have multiple layers of approvals and have a brand to protect.

For example, when Amazon entered the market for selling online books in 1994, Barnes & Noble was the behemoth. Not surprisingly, Amazon’s fear was that it would be wiped out when Barnes & Noble started selling books online.

Therefore, Bezos determined that the only way to win was to get big fast — to move so fast that by the time that Barnes & Noble launched an online effort, Amazon would be so far ahead that Barnes & Noble couldn’t catch up. His strategy worked.

Amazingly, Barnes & Noble didn’t even launch their online store until 1997. By that point, Amazon was already on the verge of going public and had hundreds of employees.

Bottom line: If you’re a startup or early in your career, being fast in quickly changing markets can be how you set yourself apart.

#5. The best career opportunities are often time-bound

In 1994, a 30-year-old Jeff Bezos was a vice president at a prestigious hedge fund in New York City. He had recently married his work colleague, McKenzie Scott.

One day, as he was researching markets, he came across a fascinating fact. This fringe thing that people called the Internet was growing at an incredible 2,300% per year.

Immediately, the opportunity alarm bells went off in his head. “Things just don’t grow that fast!” The Internet might be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.

Now, put yourself in Bezos’ shoes for a minute. After years of hard work, you’ve finally made it. You’re highly paid, doing stimulating work you like, and on the fast track. You’re married and likely planning to have kids in the next few years.

While the Internet is growing, many experts believe that it will always be at the fringes.

What would you do?

Your answer to this question says a lot about how you think about speed.

People who operate at a faster speed more quickly notice important changes in their environment. They understand them and invest in the best ones.

This is a big deal because most opportunities are time-bound. The best opportunities attract lots of people and become less compelling over time as they become crowded. If you can notice them sooner, you have an advantage.

We can see time-bound opportunities on a few levels…

Tool adoption. If you’re the first to adopt a game-changing technology in your industry or position, you can use that to stand apart. Investment opportunities. The earlier you get in on a great investment opportunity, the larger the return. Cultural shifts. The sooner you realize an important cultural trend, the more you are seen as a pioneer rather than as out-of-touch. Startup opportunities. Bill Gross runs both the longest running technology incubator and also one of the most successful. Of the 150 companies they’ve started, an amazing 45 have gone public. In 2015, Gross did an in-depth analysis to try and understand what separated the winners from the losers. He looked at teams, markets, ideas, funding, business models, and timing. Amazingly, he found that timing was the #1 key. Social media. When a new social media platform gains traction, new users tend to be looking for people to follow. Furthermore, it is easier to get engagement. As time passes, users start to unfollow more than they follow, because they feel info overwhelm. Also, as the platform monetizes, it reduces organic engagement and offers more and more traffic on a paid basis. Skills. When a new skill suddenly becomes in demand, there is a shortage of workers to fill that demand. As a result, employees can earn a premium for having that skill. For example, at one point, programmers with experience with autonomous vehicles were worth over $1 million dollars per year to their companies.

Speed is great in theory, but it’s difficult in practice.

On the one hand, if we keep on top of all the latest tools, skills, social media platforms, and investment opportunities, we can quickly become overwhelmed with no time to do our core work. Furthermore, many of the changes we track won’t end up panning out.

If we are too late, we will miss out on the best opportunities. We also risk being considered out of touch.

There is one rule that has helped me find the balance between the two poles in my own life. I call it the Hockey Stick Rule.

When I see something grow exponentially in the shape of a hockey stick, like Bezos did with the Internet, at the very least I immediately devote 10 hours to truly understanding it before passing judgement on it. This approach helps me understand what’s happening without getting overwhelmed.

This rule was inspired by being late to several opportunities and wishing I could go back in time and front load my research. For example, I first heard about Bitcoin in 2013. I started hearing about it from many of the smartest people in my network in 2017. I didn’t invest until 2020. In retrospect, I wish I hadn’t written it off without taking the time to understand it.

I was also inspired by Gary Vaynerchuk’s approach to exploring social media platforms. Even though he is the CEO of a company with hundreds of employees and works more than 70 hours per week, he still makes sure that he is conversant in every platform. In an interview, he shared his strategy: when a new platform emerges, he immediately spends several hours on it, even if it means staying up late to do so.