Humanitarian Systems: Showing the Value of Localization through System Dynamics
By: Octavio Vega
Tags: Systems Thinking, Humanitarian Innovation, Refugees, Immigration, Germany

21st century humanitarian innovation needs imaginative approaches to locate, analyze, and solve global problems. In our naïve perception of engineering, we often fail to appreciate the great breadth with which engineering concepts and methodologies serve us in sectors much more macroscopic than mechatronic design. One such advent is the method of systems thinking.

Humanitarian innovation and the problems that precede it depend inherently on a complex network of actors, issues, and dynamic relationships. Finding a framework that empowers us to see causes and effects across the isolation of space and time is what humanitarian innovation needs to achieve the next level of progress.

A Brief Introduction to System Dynamics

Systems thinking concerns the interconnected variables in complex networks, and how they all impact each other dynamically. More specifically, system dynamics is the computational modeling of complex systems to encode the underlying differential equations which govern a system’s time evolution and stability. To give a relevant example, one of the most basic models to which system dynamics is applied is the evolution of a pandemic:

Image Courtesy of Author. Made with LOOPY. Although this is an oversimplified model, it captures the essence of what systems modeling is.

Epidemiologists must consider a wide array of contributing factors in the spread of diseases, all of which are related. The model I created above using LOOPY only comprises a handful of nodes¹: four of them are populations and three of them are rates. The population nodes are known as “stocks” because they are filled and depleted and if the system is frozen at some instant in time, the numerical value for that stock (i.e. the number of people infected, healthy, etc.) represents a tangible quantity. The rates are known as “flows,” because they quantify how quickly they increase or decrease the stock values.

For instance, a high transmission rate means the “infected population” stock will grow quickly. The arrows represent the interconnected linkages between all of the stocks and flows, and the polarities (plus and minus signs) indicate whether each variable increases or decreases the next link.

In the model above, the vaccination rate represents how external factors such as health policies can stabilize the system. Based on the loops, the infected and susceptible populations may oscillate continually, but the vaccination rate has the power to dampen their effects and stabilize the healthy population via immunization.

System dynamics in its more rigorous mathematical form is known as control theory, which electrical and mechanical engineers employ routinely to model the systems underlying airplanes, robots, chemical engineering plants, and more. But rest assured — the applications of and necessity for systems thinking reach far beyond the conventional engineering disciplines. In fact, system dynamics is an increasingly popular tool for business and policy alike.

Beneath the frustrations of failed humanitarian reforms and ailing populations, how can we reconcile our need to innovate with the abundance of interrelated factors in order to make humanitarian action more effective?

The Case of Migrants in Germany

There is almost no better issue to demonstrate the contradictory yet interrelated nature of humanitarian response than that of today’s refugee crises. Perhaps the greatest challenge in motivating reform in humanitarian innovation is generating a high degree of publicity. It seems beyond shadow of a doubt that the public in western nations should care about humanitarian emergencies, especially those causing refugee influxes. But surprisingly, reports of millions of people fleeing their homes still are not enough to generate a social movement large enough to catalyze change.

While it should not require direct impacts on developed societies for them to care to support overhauling the current international humanitarian framework, those direct impacts serve at least as jarring reminders that real crises exist in the world. Germany is a fascinating case in which these shocks highlighted the values of systems thinking — and systemic reforms.

Photo by Montecruz Foto on Flickr. German citizens embrace the influx of migrants to Berlin, as “Flüchtlinge herzlich wilkommen” translates to “Heartfelt welcome to refugees.”

In 2015, the Syrian Civil War sparked a mass exodus unlike ever before that sent shockwaves across the European Union. In Berlin, Chancellor Angela Merkel made the historical move to welcome massive numbers of refugees into Germany, which was lauded as a heroic triumph. That is, mostly until some side effects of this policy on migrants became noticeably unsustainable.

It is nearly impossible to analyze the repercussions and values of Berlin’s migrant policy without discussion of the German economy. Germany’s booming economy requires that migrants be integrated appropriately into the workforce. Fortunately, Berlin’s response largely benefitted the majority of immigrants and studies project net positive impact on the nation’s economy resulting from migrants. In this manner, Germany’s system offers lessons to economic integration.

Angela Merkel’s migrant policy and its impacts on Germany modeled as a system might look something like this:

Image Courtesy of Author. Made with LOOPY.

Examining the above system, we can see that a key component to the economic stability altogether involving the refugees is capacity building approaches. The system only models a few specific factors aiding in the integration of the refugees, namely higher education, vocational training, and housing. The key concern for the German workforce regarding asylees is the ability to secure a workforce. The refugees must be encouraged to work, otherwise those who do not will accumulate as contributors to the nation’s economic stagnation, in turn fueling greater resentment from political opposition groups and depleting economic resources. This is why localization is crucial — it starts to answer the question of how best to motivate and provide opportunities for refugees.

Despite the relative success in maintaining a stable society and economy, the question now is: where may have Germany gone wrong? The answer once again lies in localization.

Refugees in a northwestern German State highlight a particular need to localize attention and focus on preventative measures as well. Criminologists conducted a study in 2018 in response to increased petty crime rates in Lower Saxony, attributed to young migrants. They offer insight into the causations and policies surrounding these statistics, which ultimately lend themselves right back to a need for local approaches.

Many refugee youth of diverse origins in Germany have been placed into cramped living spaces. According to researchers at the Zurich University of Applied Sciences in their report, the living arrangements combined with an undifferentiated approach to service provision based on cultural backgrounds are conducive tension and occasionally fighting.

Image courtesy of the Author. Made with LOOPY.

The first important point is that the above loop is NOT a complete system! This is just an isolated component, demonstrating one effect. If we “pressed play” on this loop, it would spiral out of control since the connections are circular and have the same polarity (this is known as a positive reinforcing loop). This feedback loop is clearly unstable; the policy of keeping migrant youth in small, undifferentiated spaces increases their hostility toward one another, limiting their opportunities for community engagement. Getting themselves into trouble earlier on, the refugee youth reduce their prospects for leaving refugee centers and remain in crowded living spaces which continues the reinforcing spiral of aggression.

But this is not all; the criminologists point toward a lack of resources that would actually serve to greatly benefit the attitudes of the refugee youth. Greater access to female leaders and community members as well as parental guidance are lacking for the younger boys. Without this kind of social attention, their experience is manifestly different than those of others in their new society.

As opposed to funneling funds into robust aid programs, the state governments of Lower Saxony and other German states should recognize the specific needs of their migrants. Vocational training and university courses may not be what these boys need yet; they represent a unique locale, and the shocking wave of migrants drowns out their uniqueness when the government supplies its deliverance in the form of best practices.

Refugees of all ages and origins face numerous challenges after arriving in Germany. Language, housing, work, and discrimination are some of the major hurdles they encounter. In essence, these may all be modeled with system dynamics tools to provide insight into how the various factors are affecting communities, but this is besides the point for now. The point, having worked through a systems analysis of some of Germany’s policies, is that even via the same logic of engineering which powers technology can lead us to the value of localized policies. Additionally, a crucial conclusion is that humanitarian action is not singular; these refugees represent how their struggles do not simply end when they leave their homes and escape danger.

As humanitarian innovators, we can think like engineers who must recognize that the “workbench” of aid policy is broader than the site of emergencies. The job of aiding communities, especially refugee communities, does not fall to the hands of a single entity, but rather is an interconnected system of policies which must be local. Further down the line, refugee resettlement barriers must be addressed with the same mentality that should be brought to the site of a crisis. With system dynamics, we see the amazing generality of the theory underlying localization. With these tools in mind, we are not just aid workers, government officials, teachers, or community supporters. Together, we are engineers building a newer and better world.