Delta Variants — More Science, Less Fiction
By: Jordan L. Shlain Md
Tags: Covid, Vaccine, Variants, Pandemic

I was really hoping that my last Dispatch #18, Response Ability, was my final one. After all, vaccines were on the rise and the big third wave was on the downslope and science seemed to be moving a bit faster than nature’s retort. Wishful thinking. As the Delta variant (Variant B.1.617.2) storms through nations, cities, counties, weddings and households, it’s worth noting a few critical elements here. First of all, pandemics are not video games — we cannot will them away with technology, media or magic. They are nature’s responses to something; what, we may never know, however I imagine that it’s as simple as being out of balance.

To put this in perspective: if your car tire is low on air and you don’t tend to it, the entire car drives differently (and you may not really know it). Yet, when the low tire slowly gets too low, the car doesn’t turn well. If you make a hard right turn, you may lose traction and get into an accident. Was it an accident? Or was it something that could have been imputed given you were aware of the low tire, cared about the low tire and understood the probable consequences of inaction to filling that tire.

All this to say, here we are. This pandemic is not going away and more to the Delta point, we are all likely going to get this virus. All the data shows that those that are vaccinated fare much, much better than those that are not vaccinated. The unvaccinated are gambling with their lives, even the younger ones.

Despite the recent rise in cases, the death rate has remained low and while there is always a lag in cases and deaths, we may not (hopefully) see a rise in deaths due to the vaccine penetration.

Should we wear a mask? Should we cancel schools, weddings, events? Should we impose lockdowns? I will attempt to give you a framework for how to answer these very personal questions — and the key question for you is this: what is your risk tolerance?

My goal is to distill the latest science, as we know it, and create a framework so that you can make informed decisions about your life. I fully acknowledge the fast pace of new data and science and with these dispatches hope to unpack with intellectual honesty and intellectual humility.

Science is the method for attempting to find truth through systematic experimentation and empirical probability — and science is always changing. This is why it is critical to distinguish between quality science and pseudoscience. My goal in this dispatch is to animate the best and most accurate science.

The cold hard reality is that we are likely at the one third mark of this entire public health meets post-truthers rodeo. For those vaccinated, you are in a much safer place and despite variant setbacks, progress is being made. The biggest news will be when we have a treatment; until then there is a social and moral imperative to get the whole world vaccinated. We are not isolated; in fact, we’re the opposite, interconnected, dependent and social.

For those of you who desire to see my daily posts, please follow me on LinkedIN as this is where I share my daily readings and musings on Covid.

Lastly, there are models I trust that indicate that Delta, as contagious as it is, will have a difficult time finding new hosts by early Oct and could quickly disappear as it did in the U.K. More info on all of that and more below.

If you’re going to wear masks, get KN95 or N95 — they are much more effective.

Let’s get to it.