What Quarterback Will Lead the NFL in Interceptions or Win Comeback Player of the Year?
By: Brandon Anderson
Tags: NFL, Sports, Culture, Television, Football

MOST INTERCEPTIONS THROWN

Of course any quarterback can rack up interceptions, but some turn it over more than others. At SportsBook Review, I did a full review of the recent interception leaders. I found that interception leaders need to play a lot and throw a lot, they’re likely to be age 28 or older, and they probably need to throw at least 18 interceptions to lead the league.

Here are five quarterbacks with intriguing Bovada odds that could end up leading the league in interceptions.

Mitchell Trubisky CHI +3300

Trubisky threw 12 interceptions in 14 starts last year and actually saw his interception rate rise from his rookie to sophomore year (2.5 to 2.8%). Most of the time that number drops starkly in a player’s second season, so that’s a bad sign for Trubisky’s future, especially since some metrics have Trubisky throwing as many as five more dropped interceptions a year ago. Chicago will have to pass and gamble more this year as their defense inevitably regresses to the mean, and Trubisky continues to make a lot of mistakes. This is a big year for his future, and this thing has a chance of going very south.

Patrick Mahomes KC +2000

Yes, the MVP. Mahomes is a bet on volume as much as anything. The Chiefs defense is still pretty bad, so Mahomes will be throwing plenty — and remember, Kansas City scored so much last year Mahomes often didn’t even have to go all out in the second half as he was protecting a lead. This is also a guy that likes to try things and can sometimes force a play a la Brett Favre, things like throwing with his off hand or behind the back. Mahomes got lucky to avoid a number of interceptions last year. If he has a little less luck and more volume than ever, he could put up a surprising interceptions total.

Philip Rivers LAC +1400

Rivers has gone through up and down swings in his NFL career. He’s been pretty accurate of late but averaged 17 interceptions from 2014 to 2016, and he’s had two seasons with over 20 interceptions in his career. The Chargers were 12–4 a year ago but Rivers is 38 years old and might be missing his left tackle and his star running back for a big chunk of the season. Rivers is a Hall of Fame quarterback and this would be a pretty quick and steep drop-off, but when an older QB goes, he goes fast.

Kyler Murray ARI +1000

This one is probably not much of a surprise. Murray is a rookie who should start from day one, and he’s likely to have a pretty high volume in an up-tempo Kliff Kingsbury system. Lots of passes means lots of chances for a mistake, and rookies tend to make a lot of mistakes. Murray was an historically accurate QB at Oklahoma, completing 69.8% of his passes with a fantastic 1.7% interception rate, and those numbers typically translate to the NFL… once a player settles in. Murray will have a learning curve.

Jameis Winston TB +750

When I wrote about this for SportsBook Review, Winston was a worthy favorite but wouldn’t win the award because he was likely to lose his job once the inevitable turnovers started racking up. The turnovers part is still true — Jameis has thrown 58 interceptions in 54 starts, a horrid 3.0% interception rate. What changed is that Winston’s backup, Blaine Gabbert, got hurt, and now there’s no obvious backup for Tampa to pivot to. They might be stuck playing Jameis, and if he plays all 16 games, Winston will have a huge chance of leading the league in interceptions. Don’t be surprised if this number starts falling soon, and hard.