NFL WEEK 15 — Sunday Picks & Plays
By: Zack Nicol
Tags: Fun, Sports Betting, Football, NFL

1:00 PM ET

CAROLINA PANTHERS at BUFFALO BILLS (-14) ; O/U 44

Model Z Projection: CAR -5, 49.79 Total

Straight Up Pick: Buffalo Bills

Spread Pick: CAR +14⭐

O/U Pick: Under 44⭐

Zack’s Plays:

- Diggs under 75.5 Receiving yards (-110)

Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: Woah too many points. Carolina has too much talent outside of the QB and RB position to be doubt digit dogs. I get it, but I’ll take Carolina with that many.

1:00 PM ET

NEW YORK JETS at MIAMI DOLPHINS (-9.5) ; O/U 41

Model Z Projection: MIA -11, 47.69 Total

Straight Up Pick: Miami Dolphins

Spread Pick: MIA -9.5⭐⭐⭐

O/U Pick: Over 41⭐

Zack’s Plays:

- Berrios over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

- Ryan Griffin over 2.5 receptions (+150)

- Wilson over 32.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

- Gaskin over 70.5 rushing & receiving yards (-110)

- Parker 60+ receiving yards (-106)

- Parker 125+ receiving yards (+880)

- Tagovailoa over 252.5 Passing Yards (-110)

- MIA -9.5 Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: No Waddle, but I like the Tua, Gaskin and Parker trio in this matchup at home in a very important game for them. I’ll go Miami Double Digits.

1:00 PM ET

ARIZONA CARDINALS (-12.5) at DETROIT LIONS ; O/U 46.5

Model Z Projection: ARI -18.5, 51.88 Total

Straight Up Pick: Arizona Cardinals

Spread Pick: ARI -12.5⭐

O/U Pick: Under 46.5⭐

Zack’s Plays:

- Murray over 298.5 Passing & Rushing Yards (-110)

- Kirk over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

- Moore over 33.5 Receiving yards (-110)

- ARI over 3.5 total touchdowns (-115)

Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: Detroit is as depleted as ever. Good luck.

1:00 PM ET

DALLAS COWBOYS (-11.5) at NEW YORK GIANTS ; O/U 44.5

Model Z Projection: DAL -13.5, 55.85 Total

Straight Up Pick: Dallas Cowboys

Spread Pick: DAL -11.5⭐

O/U Pick: Over 44.5⭐

Zack’s Plays:

- DAL over 28.5 points (-110)

- Golladay over 36.5 Receiving Yards(-110)

- Golladay 80+ Receiving Yards (+630)

- Schultz over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

- Prescott over 275.5 Passing Yards (-110)

Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: Hmm what to do here. It sounds like it will be Mike Glennon under center but I’d like to see Jake Fromm Back there. I guess I’ll go with the Cowboys but I have no idea to be honest, it’s a lot of points.

1:00 PM ET

TENNESSEE TITANS at PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-1) ; O/U 42.5

Model Z Projection: TEN -3, 48.85 Total

Straight Up Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers

Spread Pick: PIT -1⭐⭐⭐

O/U Pick: Under 42.5⭐

Zack’s Plays:

- Harris to score (-120)

- Harris to score 2x (+480)

- Harris to score 3x (+2300)

- Harris over 95.5 Rushing + Receiving yards (-110)

- Foreman to score (+130)

- Foreman over 55.5 Rushing yards (-110)

- Tannehill to throw INT (+102)

- PIT -1 (-110)

Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: I haven’t done this much this year, but I think I’m going with the Steelers. The only thing I like about this Titans team is RB D’Onta Foreman. I think the Steelers get it done with a big Najee Harris game.

1:00 PM ET

HOUSTON TEXANS at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (-4.5) ; O/U 39.5

Model Z Projection: JAX -2, 50.05 Total

Straight Up Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars

Spread Pick: JAX -4.5⭐

O/U Pick: Over 39.5⭐

Zack’s Plays:

- Robinson to score (-105)

- Robinson over 102.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards (-110)

- Lawrence 250+ Passing Yards (+265)

Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: Yuck. The game and the Jags season drama. Urban is gone, and it sounds like that is a good thing. I could see a season high in Robinson carries and maybe a nice Lawrence breakout game. 4.5 is tough, but I can’t find a reason to pick the Texans.

4:05 PM ET

CINCINNATI BENGALS at DENVER BRONCOS (-3) ; O/U 44

Model Z Projection: CIN -2, 51.84 Total

Straight Up Pick: Denver Broncos

Spread Pick: CIN +3⭐

O/U Pick: Under 44⭐

Zack’s Plays:

- Fant to score (+270)

- Mixon over 67.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

- Mixon to score (+105)

- Mixon to score 2x (+650)

- Uzomah to score (+340)

Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: Another popular underdog pick here I bet. Both of these teams are in the middle-tier category, but I feel like the Bengals are the only ones that people (myself included) would give a shot in a playoff game. This Broncos defense is good again though, 7th in yards allowed and 2nd in points allowed. I don’t really like it, but I think I’m going Broncos here at home on the moneyline, but I’ll take the field goal on the Bengals side. Not confident whatsoever though.

4:05 PM ET

ATLANTA FALCONS at SAN FRANCISCO 49ers (-9.5) ; O/U 47.5

Model Z Projection: SF -10, 53.02 Total

Straight Up Pick: San Francisco 49ers

Spread Pick: ATL +9.5⭐⭐

O/U Pick: Under 47.5⭐

Zack’s Plays:

- Kittle 80+ Receiving Yards (+130)

- Patterson over 83.5 Rushing & Receiving yards (-110)

- Pitts 80+ Receiving Yards (+370)

Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: Tough to feel comfortable picking this Niners team without a true RB1 back there, but this George Kittle and Deebo combo in this offense makes up for it. The problem for me is that Atlanta is basically fully healthy, and the Niners are not. You know what, I think I’ll take the 9.5 Atlanta is getting. Their offense is decent, they’re healthy and fun fact, they have the #1 Cornerback on PFF, and I bet you don’t even know his name. I don’t feel good about it, but that’s my bet. Ps, it’s AJ Terrell.

4:25 PM ET

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-7) at BALTIMORE RAVENS ; O/U 43.5

Model Z Projection: GB -3.5, 51.40 Total

Straight Up Pick: Baltimore Ravens

Spread Pick: BAL +7⭐⭐⭐

O/U Pick: Under 43.5⭐

Zack’s Plays:

- Rodgers under 265.5 Passing Yards (-110)

- BAL ML (+260)

- BAL +7 (-110)

- Bateman over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: I’ve been on the Ravens upset side all week long, and I think I’ll stick to it. I don’t think the Ravens are a bad team, and when you look at the Packers Oline who are 32nd in my model this week with their inactives, I’m willing to go with the home team with slight confidence. Lamar would be nice to help my confidence, but Huntley isn’t bad either. I’m going crazy and picking Ravens moneyline!

8:20 PM ET

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-11.5) ; O/U 45.5

Model Z Projection: TB -3, 46.42 Total

Straight Up Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Spread Pick: TB -11.5⭐

O/U Pick: Under 45.5⭐⭐

Zack’s Plays:

- NO under 16.5 points (-110)

- Kamara over 87.5 rushing & receiving yards (-110)

Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: This one is surprisingly tough for me. We all know that my model loves the Bucs, but it loves this Saints defense too. I do think Tampa shuts down the Saints offense, but I can’t decide if the Saints can shut down the Bucs. The Lattimore v Evans rivalry is well known, so what do we see from that today? I guess I’ll go Tampa because I don’t think the Saints will score much.