What 2020’s Election Data Says About 2024.
By: Shaurya Pandya
Tags: Data, Politics, 2024 Elections, Technology, Elections

However, as this happens, the GOP won’t actually be able to hold onto the essence of the Trump base, the way Trump did. Trump lost the election he once won, for the same reason. He was Donald Trump- a message that never betrayed his voters. The next candidate will be a lot less vulnerable to ad-hom’s. They’ll have to carry a different type of brand with them.

See, in order for the GOP to maintain itself, it’s going to have to dismantle the Democratic Coalition- which is far stronger than the Democratic Party.

The reason why is because of electoral advantage: The California effect (Californians leaving to other southern states- bringing left-leaning politics with them), the influx of city explosion in the sun-belt, and greater diversification)), mean that the GOP is losing the states that gave it the ability to win the election in the first place. States like Nevada and New Mexico are now becoming that are becoming bluer. 2020 took Arizona plus Georgia, and with the Texas election being as close as it was- with the rapid growth of its cities, it’s becoming more and more of a purple state to go blue.(WSU9, 2020)

But, this brings us to the second GOP win of the night: Minorities.

The GOP, and Trump, took a great increase in minorities over this year, with CNN exit polls showing a 41%-55% split in the vote for Trump, 41% being minorities. Historically, Trump’s showing with minorities gave an indication that the voting patterns have the potential to increasingly blur lines, offsetting the demographical effect that the electoral advantage may one day deliver. (CNN,2020)

This puts up for question the need for the GOP to not only run a candidate that might have to work with the Trump base but one that can bring in moderates as well. What this means is that the party will, in fact, have to change a substantial part of its platform. A likely direction will be that of looking towards the conservative ends of the minorities that go blue due to a more inclusive pitch (but could go red based on the economic standards, which was a huge part of Trump’s minority pitch in 2020).

What could this mean? It means that the party may have to spend more time taking part in the conversation of immigration, culture, religion, and job outlook, looking at where the conservative minorities stand and moving to the left of that direction, and finding more distinctive ways to separate them from the left. A 2024 conservative pitch, for example, greatly loosening asylum restrictions on religious minorities seeking asylum. More fundamentally, this would have to entail those from the east, them having the most conservative turnout compared to all other minorities. This lean, statistically, would be able to further blur the lines of voting demographics.

Speaking of blurring the line, there comes a third part- one that the GOP, with more of a “refined” strategy, per say, will be breaking apart the Democratic Coalition. Once again, as per CNN exit polls, 53% of people who voted for Trump voted-for Trump. Nearly 68% of Democrat voters voted against him, not for Biden. (CNN,2020) The coalition of conservatives, moderates, liberals, and progressives, mean that ideologically, the Democratic Coalition is a defensive one- to keep a more ideologically off-center Republican party, from the government. However, this also means, internally, the coalition will disagree and be far less concentrated- on economics, climate, and social policy.

To break this down, if it can retain both advantages it already has, the GOP needs to win back the center. The coalition can be an anomaly, and the GOP would have to all but seduce the center, in a larger fashion, towards expanding their centrist faction. Concentrated within the “IDW” and right-wing media, placing a priority on the diversity of thought would reform a more diverse conservative platform that isn’t as heavily built on a coalition so much as it is on consistency and moving to a new direction in politics controlled by the diversity of thought over populistic demand, and instead, using that wing as a mechanism to keep the party moving.

Does that mean the GOP moves to the left? Probably. Not as a leftist party- but closer to the center than where it is now. But that’s the GOP, that from its data in 2020, can see that it can head into.

Of course, a “Trump Extention” candidate all but sounds like an antonym to that, but breaking down the Trump outreach, it follows a couple of major patterns.

#1: Extreme Confidence. What Trump built to his followers was an image of security to the fear that they have been forgotten, that their voice is not being heard. That was the center of the campaign, not the policies following it. His Extention candidate would still have to make this a priority.

#2: Flaghshipping big ideas: This does not need to be held to a right-wing standard. UBI, and Andrew Yang, for example, cleared a similar effect.

#3: Vilifying. Trump didn’t just position himself as an anti-democrat. He made them look like a villain, where he would be the weapon to disarm them- and the audience, they are the hero. It’s story branding, done in politics. It’s important to remember that at one point, Trump was a Democrat.

Donald Trump’s character was a powerful one, but it was those 3 components that made him heard and cater to a base that, whether or not the left wants to acknowledge the righteousness of being empathetic towards, was worried about losing their jobs. Living in rural, forgotten areas.

To those who feel forgotten, a flashing light coming forth is a light that breathes the necessity that the moths see come night- and to those, to those, the proclamation of their existence- their world, and their experiences, is what decides their ballot.