Voter Suppression In the Age of Covid-19
By: Nikhil Mehta
Tags: Politics, Election 2020, Data Science, Voting, Kentucky

A Breakdown of What Happened in Kentucky, and Why the Situation is More Complex Than What the Internet is Saying

3,700 available voting locations cut to 200. One available polling location for a county with over 600,000 registered voters. These were the factual realities of voting day in Kentucky, but they don’t tell the full story. The concerns are valid, but a closer look shows that the situation is more complex than just that. Either way, Kentucky should at the very least, raise red flags for a future that we all need to be prepared for.

1. Who Sets Up Statewide Elections?

As the story of poll closures gained traction, Democrats in particular, made the issue out to be political. Several key figures, including Hillary Clinton, Lebron James, and Stacey Abrams went to social media to publicize their disapproval. Even the Democratic favorite for the Kentucky primary— Amy Mcgrath — was screaming foul play.

To be fair the Republican party has more frequently been associated with voter suppression, but this outrage seem well …misplaced. The chief of elections is a republican, but the governor is a democrat, and the board of elections is bipartisan.

The primary in Kentucky was originally scheduled to occur on the 19th of May, but was rescheduled due to uncertainty over the coronavirus. According to the statehouse, 3,500 polling locations were removed as part of a strategy to promote absentee voting and election staff reduction, amid the pandemic. The state initiated its coronavirus lockdown in March, and the revamped plan for primary voting was finalized in April. Fast forward to June, and most of the state’s industries are now open including horse parks and indoor entertainment.

To streamline the mail-in voting process, Kentucky waived previous qualifications — i.e illness, travel, disability — and made the process available to all voters. The registration deadline to actually apply for an absentee ballot was on June 15th, one week before it needed to be postmarked and mailed back. Additionally, with just 1.5–2% of the state voting absentee historically, the move to mail-in voting was a radical shift from normal.

In terms of structure, each state in the United States has their own method of organizing local elections. In Kentucky, the secretary of state — Michael Adams — is in charge of upholding the integrity of the state’s elections. Adams, a republican, has faced increased criticism from Democrats for his role in slashing polling sites. Although Adams is the chief of elections, he is not the sole organizer. Kentucky has a bipartisan elections board, and the polling layout for the 2020 primary was created through collaboration from the board, the secretary of state, and the governor’s office. The Kentucky board of election officials and their party affiliation is shown below:

Kentucky Board of Elections//Courtesy//Kentucky state government

Initially, the April plan had relatively widespread approval from both Republicans and Democrats. The Democratic primary frontrunner — Amy Mcgrath — originally placed an ad backing the new voting system, before backtracking. Her views were stated below:

Amy McGrath’s Radio Ad Championing the new voting layout//Courtesy//Youtube

As for in-person voting, a lot of scrutiny was drawn to Jefferson County, the county with the highest concentration of black voters, but just one polling location.

Kentucky Population: 4.5 million

Demographics: White — 86.3%, Black — 7.8%, Hispanic — 3.1%, Asian- 1.1%

Jefferson County: 767,000

Demographics: White — 67.9%, Black — 21.2%, Hispanic — 5.2%

Jefferson county has 45% of the states black population, and is also the most populous county in the state. Yet, despite being home to over 17% of the states population, the county did receive just 0.7% of the available polling sites. The counties with the highest number of polling locales include Pike county and Pulaski county, with 6 polling locations, each. The populations of these two counties are around 120,000 — combined. Pike and Pulaski are located in rural Appalachia, for context.

Transportation from outskirts of Jefferson county to the Exposition Center Courtesy//Google Maps

A few additional noteworthy counties:

Fayette County — population 323,000 — where Lexington is located, had one polling location at the UK Football stadium.

Franklin County — population 51,000 — the county housing Frankfort and the state capitol had three polling locations.

Oldham County — population 60,000 — the wealthiest county in Kentucky, located in suburban Louisville, had one polling location.

Per capita, Jefferson county did have the fewest number of polling sites, but counties across the state faced closures. Like Louisville, residents in Lexington — the 2nd largest city — also had just one voting location on election day. Understanding that residents in Fayette and Jefferson county faced longer commutes, the city provided some access to free transportation. Despite these efforts we can infer that residents without transportation would be some of the most directly impacted by poll closures.

It is true that some rural counties had 4–6 polling sites, but these counties also don’t have facilities like the Expo Center and Kroger Field to hold thousands of voting booths. That could explain some of the disparity.

2. What was at Stake?

There were some congressional elections taking place, but for all precincts the ballot consisted of the following:

The Ballot in Kentucky

The Republican senate race was not much of a competition. Mitch McConnell was expected to win big and he did.

The most contentious election on the ballot was the Democratic senate race involving Amy McGrath and Charles Booker. McGrath was supposed to run away with the nomination until a late polling surge from Booker.

Amy Mcgrath

Amy Mcgrath is a former marine, and spent time working at the pentagon before returning to Kentucky. She was the clear favorite for many in Washington, having received endorsements from Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar, Pete Buttigieg, and more.

Courtesy//Forbes

McGrath raised large amounts of money, particularly from out-of-state fundraising groups. Viewed as the Democrat’s best choice to unseat Mitch McConnell, McGrath has had some highly publicized television appearances. Last year, she appeared on “Late Night with Seth Meyers”, and “Full Frontal with Samantha Bee”, while also appearing on CNN and MSNBC.

In-state and out of state donations — Courtesy//Open Secrets

McGrath has branded herself as a moderate Dem. She is fiscally conservative and an advocate of the 2nd amendment. She believes in climate change, and has supported Obamacare. McGrath was rumored to be somewhat pro-Trump, but she did endorse Joe Biden for president. Policy wise, McGrath appears to fall squarely among other establishment Democrats in Washington.

Charles Booker

Booker did not even enter the race until January. He is a member of the Kentucky House of Representatives, and is the state’s youngest black lawmaker at age 35. He raised a fraction of what McGrath and McConnell were able to raise, but ran a high profile, social media centric campaign that drew a lot of attention from progressives. He received endorsements from figures like Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.

Courtesy//Charles Booker

In terms of policy, Booker is a pretty standard progressive. His platforms include Medicare for All, comprehensive criminal justice reform, a green new deal, tackling climate change, and universal basic income. Criticism has come for Booker’s lack of experience, and his lack of moderate electability in an election involving Mitch McConnell.

3. How was the actual election?

There were flaws, but Kentucky is expecting its highest voter turn out ever in a primary. Credit is due to Kentucky’s government and this turnout has been a sort of vindication for election organizers. That being said, this was also probably the most highly publicized Kentucky primary in a long time, if not ever.

Mail-in voting has been touted as a huge success, and the state is expecting a total of around 800,000 absentee ballots . Many residents appreciated the ease of the system, but there were complaints as well. I recently spoke to Louisville resident, Shantel Stubbs, who told me the following:

“My husband and I both applied for absentee ballots. The online process was pretty easy, but I could see how how for some elderly voters without internet experience, it could be difficult. I received my absentee ballot and voted last week, with no issue. My husband never received his, and he had to go down to the Expo Center to vote in person.”-Shantel Stubbs, Jefferson County Resident

We don’t know the impact of poll closures on residents holistically, but things ran mostly smoothly for those who made it to the polls. However, there were two moments that grabbed media attention. Scenes from Lexington showed voters standing in long queues, that zig zagged outside the stadium. Reports indicate that some voters waited upwards of an hour to get into the building.

Meanwhile in Jefferson County, voters arriving after work experienced long delays in rush hour traffic. Due to poll closures at 6 PM, a lot of voters were left banging on the doors of the Exposition Center after closing hours. Charles Booker would go on to file an injunction, followed by Amy McGrath, and polling times were extended until 6:30 PM. A request to extend voting hours until 9 PM was denied.

“The request that polls remain open until 9 p.m. due to traffic congestion is based on speculation, rather than any evidence that specific individual voters cannot reach the Expo Center,”-Annie O’Connell, Jefferson County Circuit Judge

Voters in Jefferson County stand outside the Expo Center after 6 PM//Courtesy//WHAM11

4. What can we conclude?

Voter suppression is real, and the means of suppressing the vote are becoming more overt and even more tactical. With that being said, screaming voter suppression without taking a look at the situation holistically, hurts more than it helps. Like anything in this era, fawning outrage in the incorrect places only dilutes the necessary arguments needed to make change in the long run.

Let’s look at some baseline level conclusions from the 2020 Primary in Kentucky:

Did Kentucky strip 3,500 polling stations for this primary? Yes What was the reasoning? Covid-19. Per capita, did Jefferson county have the lowest number of polling locations? Yes, but they did have have enough physical polling stations for lines to move smoothly once inside. Is there a clear disparity in how polling locations were distributed throughout the state? Nothing clearly. The majority of counties had just one polling site, but some rural counties did have up to six. Lexington and Louisville were noteworthy examples of urban areas with minimal polling locales per capita, but they do have large arenas to facilitate a lot of people. Were polls allowed to stay open late for voters getting out of work? Yes and No. An injunction from Booker’s team to extend voting until 9 PM was denied, but an extension until 6:30 was approved Were the Republicans behind the poll closures? No, not really. They didn’t have a lot at stake. Was mail-in voting easier than before? Yes, for the first time, Kentuckians were able to participate in mass to vote by mail. There have been testimonials from voters who applied for a ballot and never received it, but we will not know the pervasiveness of that problem until a conclusive study occurs.

Were there issues, absolutely. Could it have been done better, 100%. But was it an egregious example of voter suppression by McConnell’s cronies? No.

Courtesy//Emma Lee / WHYY

With all that being said, the biggest takeaway from Kentucky should be what it foreshadows. In the midst of a massive election year, state and local governments will be allowed, and in some cases encouraged, to close vast numbers of polling sites across their states, due to the ongoing pandemic. Couple that with Donald Trump’s total abhorrence towards mail-in voting, and it’s very reasonable to expect widespread vote suppression in 2020.

Mail-in voting is not perfect. It has been shown to impact both Republican and Democrat voting blocs, but it may be the only way forward. Additionally, it is guaranteed that we will have widespread poll closures across the country, and without transparency, entire communities could be left unheard.

In 2020, we have been told relentlessly, that voting is absolutely paramount. Yet, our government has to ensure that we at least have a chance to do that.