Which NBA Centers Will Suddenly Start Hitting Threes This Season?
By: Brandon Anderson
Tags: Sports, Basketball, Data, NBA, Data Science

Deandre Ayton, Phoenix

Ayton scored 1159 points last season and shot 75% from the line. Guess how many three pointers he made as a rookie. Did you guess zero? Because that is somehow the answer, in a crime against coaching and development.

Ayton attempted only four threes, all of them at the buzzer, and Phoenix coaches reportedly wanted him to avoid threes and focus on building his game from the inside out. What year is this? Ayton is never going to be a great defending big man, so his path to #1 pick value is by becoming unstoppable on offense, and in 2019, that absolutely must include shooting.

And the thing is, Ayton can shoot! Look at this shot chart. Ayton is comfortable shooting the ball, and 75% at the line is outstanding for a big man. Let the man take two steps out and hit the jumper, for the love of all unicorns!

Alas, Ayton has yet to attempt a three-point shot this preseason. Sigh.

LaMarcus Aldridge, San Antonio

Aldridge has to be the most obvious can-he-shoot big man in the entire NBA.

Dude has literally made a living hitting shots from a couple feet inside the arc. LMA is a seven-time All-Star and five-time All-NBA player with a solid chance at the Hall of Fame. How has no one ever done him the favor of telling him to take a step back and add the three to his game? Is there any better way to extend his career?

Aldridge shot a career best 44% last year between 16 feet and the arc. He’s literally shooting better as he ages. All it would take is one summer shooting threes and he’d start hitting 2.5 a game. Especially in San Antonio, of all places, king of the shot doctors.

Why do the Spurs hate three pointers so much? Don’t tell me this dude can’t shoot:

Marvin Bagley, Sacramento

Bagley developed quickly as a rookie. He averaged 13/7 before the All-Star break but leapt to 18.5/9 after the break, using his athleticism to amp up the Sacramento attack. Bagley has immense raw talent and is at his best anywhere around the rim where he has always had terrific touch.

Perhaps it’s no surprise that Bagley has already started shooting threes too. It happened so subtly, you might not have even noticed. Through Bagley’s first 50 games, he hit 16 threes, only once making more than one in a game. But he made 13 in his final 12 games, including 2+ makes in five games down the stretch. He’s made 3-of-9 this preseason, so he clearly plans to keep shooting.

Bagley was billed as a modern Amare’ Stoudemire coming out of the draft. How good would Amare’ have been if he could hit threes too?

Domantas Sabonis, Indiana

Expecting a different Pacers big man? Sabonis has made only 22 threes in two years with Indiana, though he’s shot 41% behind the arc doing it. You’ve seen Sabonis play. He’s comfortable handling the ball and spends plenty of his time away from the basket, and he hit 39% of his long twos last season and 72% of his free throws. He’s clearly comfortable shooting.

And his future in Indiana might depend on it. The Pacers have already had some trouble playing Sabonis together with Myles Turner, and now they spent another draft pick on European center Goga Bitadze. Sabonis is in the last year of his rookie deal. Indiana has Turner on a cheap extension and Bitadze on a rookie deal. Which one of the three big men is most expendable? The easiest way for Sabonis to show is value for Indiana is by adding a stretch component to his game.

Arvydas Sabonis hit 40 threes a year his first few seasons in the NBA, so like father, like son? Domantas made 51 threes his rookie season in Oklahoma City, so the shot is there, and he’s taken eight already this preseason. It’s coming.

Gorgui Dieng, Minnesota

It’s hard to remember now, but a few years ago, Dieng was a pretty similar player to Sabonis, at least in playing style. Never a great rim protector, Dieng is a true four and made his living further from the basket with a nifty jumper and a lethal mid-range game. Dieng shoots 50% for his career on shots between 10 and 16 feet, and he’s made just under 45% of his long twos the last four seasons. Add in 79% from the line, and Dieng has all the makings of an obvious three-point shooter.

So why has Dieng never been pushed to shoot behind the arc? Blame Tom Thibodeau and a prehistoric Minnesota offense that failed to learn 3>2… until now. Gersson Rosas and the new Wolves world order has the team jacking threes like never before. Dieng has barely even managed to find playing time the last few years, turning into one of the worst, deadest contracts in the league. Could Minnesota resurrect his value by turning him into a stretch four?

Dieng 2017

Larry Nance, Cleveland

You’re starting to see the pattern by now, so let’s not belabor the point. Nance is a career 70% free throw shooter and has made 40% of his long twos. He’s also on a slightly bloated contract that needs added value to redeem it… added value like a three.

In the first 225 games of Nance’s NBA career, he made 26 threes. Then he hit 20 in Cleveland’s final 24 games, and he’s already taken 11 threes this preseason. Add in a semi-reliable three and Nance might just transform from bad contract into useful trade chip.

Pau Gasol, Portland

Fun fact: Pau Gasol leads the NBA in three-point percentage over the past three seasons (minimum 100 attempts). He’s 105-of-237 in that stretch, an incredible 44.3%, atop a leaderboard loaded with the league’s best shooters. Real shame the Spurs have yet to learn that 3>2, or the Bulls before them, for that matter.

Fun fact #2: Pau isn’t retired and could actually be a difference maker for a Blazers team in need of big man production with Jusuf Nurkic out til February. Maybe they’ll let him shoot.

Cody Zeller, Charlotte

If a t(h)ree falls in the forest and no one hears it, does it still make a sound?

Contrary to popular belief, Charlotte actually has some quality basketball players. They just don’t have any great ones. Cody Zeller is one of the quality ones, at least when he’s healthy enough to stay on the court.

Zeller is a 74% free throw shooter but has been mercurial at best from the mid-range for his career, and he’s made only 10-of-38 threes in his six-year career. But preseason basketball can actually tell us something, and Zeller has already attempted 11 preseason threes. That’s enough volume to tell us he’s trying, even if he only made two of them.

Grant Williams, Boston

It’s probably cheating to include a rookie on this list, but it’s my list, so sue me.

Grant Williams was a two-time SEC Player of the Year and consensus All-American at Tennessee. He has an incredible basketball IQ, is a pitbull on defense, and makes approximately 93% of his jumpers from the elbow. And yet, no one wanted to draft him because he’s too small and can’t shoot threes, with only 30 makes in three college seasons.

Oops. Williams has always had outstanding touch around the rim and made 76% of his college free throws, and sure enough, he immediately started taking and making threes at NBA Summer League. This preseason he’s 5-of-12 behind the arc, a robust 42%. Pretty good for a guy who can’t shoot.

Honorable mention to fellow rookie Bruno Fernando, whose Maryland coaches never allowed him to shoot when he clearly has a great touch. Atlanta turns every center they touch into a shooter, so it’s only a matter of time.