The Effects of Polarization on Voter Turnout in United States Presidential Elections
By: Camille Johnson
Tags: 2016 Election, Politics And Elections, Polarization, Politics, Democratic Party

The Effects of Polarization on Voter Turnout in United States Presidential Elections

One of the most compelling ways American citizens can exercise their democratic rights is to vote in elections. Through elections, the people hold the right to influence the direction of the political agenda through a punishment and reward system where the people are accurately represented. If a legislator upholds the people's will, they can be rewarded by winning an election, but if they deny the people’s will, they may be punished by losing. Many countries utilize this idea of representation through elections, but participation varies from country to country (Dahl and Shapiro, 2015; Bumgardner, 2016).

In the United States, there are a variety of factors that affect voter turnout in any election. For instance, high levels of access to political resources, partisan and ideological identification, socioeconomic status, class, and social associations persuade and increase the likelihood of citizens to vote in an election. On the other hand, factors such as residential location, economic hardships, voter ID laws, and registration requirements discourage electoral participation. Moreover, electoral competitiveness, election type, and demographics, such as age, gender, and race, affect electoral participation and voter turnout (FairVote, 2012; Bumgardner, 2016).

Political parties and their polarizing tendencies have historically had a considerable impact on the American electorate. However, in the 1990s, the Democratic and Republican parties’ stances began to diverge. Over the past 25 years, the Democratic Party has shifted to the “left,” which is synonymous with socially liberal policies and economic policies that develop a stronger social safety net. On the other hand, the Republican Party has shifted to the “right” and is synonymous with socially conservative policies and fewer economic regulations. Following this transformation, many Americans began to identify strongly with their party’s primary policy views. As a result, people frequently modified their political preferences to align with the positions of their political party, reinforcing partisan divisions (Political Polarization in the United States). Since party polarization has a strong presence in the average electorate’s political views, is it still a substantial factor in voter turnout in presidential elections?

According to Bumgardner (2016), two primary theories detail the influence polarization has on voter turnout. One theory holds that party polarization is restricted to those who are politically engaged. This theory contends that the electorate, consisting of political elites and the general public, has placed themselves in groups of like-minded people with overlapping policy or ideological stances. As a result, the American electorate consists primarily of moderates. The alternative argument contends that the partisan divide between Democrats and Republicans is not an elite-level phenomenon but extends to the general public. According to this theory, political engagement is a crucial intervening element that impacts public opinion and electoral action. Americans with a high level of political sophistication are prone to adopting elite-level polarization regarding their ideological and policy preferences. This portion of the population nearly always votes for their party’s candidates, and they remain firm about their party’s policy stances. Therefore, if the electorate’s more intelligent members share the same degrees of polarization as elected officials, some electorate benefits from policy consistency and representation.

With both of these hypotheses in mind, data from the 2016 American National Election Studies (ANES) prove that polarization still exists within the electorate and affects voter turnout. By analyzing the difference of how the survey respondents rated the Democrat and Republican parties on a 0–100 scale, it shows that the average electorate in 2016 tended to lean more Democratic than Republican (see figure 1).

Figure 1: 2016 Polarization Based on The Individual Electorate’s Feeling Thermometer (feelings towards the Republican and Democratic Party).

Still, most people (31%) feel relatively neutral about both parties, thus confirming Bumgardner’s (2016) theories (see figure 2).

Figure 2: 2016 Electoral Polarization Breakdown Based on the 2016 ANES Survey Responses.

Although party polarization is still an active part of civic engagement, it only slightly affected the electorate for the 2016 presidential elections. As seen in the 2016 ANES study, out of the 4,270 respondents, 2,887 (76%) stated they voted in the 2016 presidential election (see figure 3).

Figure 3: Voter Turnout in the 2016 November Election Based on the 2016 ANES Survey Responses.

Among those who voted, respondents who identified with a political party were .01% less likely to vote in the 2016 presidential election. The data proved that party polarization was not a significant factor that drove the electorate to vote in the election.

There is a multitude of other factors, such as gender and race, that affect voter turnout rates. However, according to the ANES findings, when analyzed separately, race and gender, similarly to polarization, were not significant factors that affected voter turnout among the average electorate in the 2016 presidential election. Only Hispanics took race into account when considering whether or not to vote. Moreover, when combined with polarization, one might assume that such factors have an increased likelihood of affecting voter turnout rates. However, data shows that the average voter considering polarization, race, and gender combined did not have any significance to voting in the 2016 presidential election.

Understanding the various factors that influence voter turnout help to distinguish attributes that substantially affect elections, especially in political races like the 2020 election. Despite 2020’s unique obstacles to voter registration and voting, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2020 presidential election had the largest voter turnout of the twenty-first century (Fabina, 2021). According to the Cook Political Report, over 158 million American citizens voted in the 2020 presidential election. In previous years, around half of American citizens eligible to vote voted in presidential elections (Force, 2004). What factors generated this surge in voter turnout rates in the 2020 presidential election? Once data from the 2020 American Election Studies questionnaire is released, further analyses should be done to determine the significance of party polarization among the electorate and whether or not it spiked voter turnout rates in the 2020 presidential election.

Focusing on components like partisan polarization and their effects on voter turnout is essential for anyone interested in election outcomes, especially political candidates and the general public. Voter turnout is a complex concept with various moving parts, where polarization is just one factor that coincides with it. Partisan polarization is not simply a phenomenon of the elite, but it extends to the general public. Politically knowledgeable people already pay close attention to their elected leaders, so polarization is likely to strengthen these voters’ partisan tendencies. Therefore, polarization should have an impact on the voting behavior of moderately informed people. For those less active in the political sphere, partisan polarization alleviates the political divide. These citizens will begin to see the same level of policy alignment as those who align with elites. If elected officials and engaged individuals in the electorate have similar viewpoints, skepticism about the government should be reduced since voters’ policy desires come to fruition.

Furthermore, polarization should stimulate the electorate by allowing individuals to elect representatives who share similar views, increasing the participation of citizens in the electoral process. Understanding this notion enables candidates to determine how much time and effort they need to focus on their party to obtain the maximum votes. As a result, elected officials will be in tune with the interests of the typical voter, which prevents the opportunity for distrust and cynicism in the political system, ultimately increasing individual’s willingness to vote.