The Analysis of Forex Market(23rd April 2020)
By: Cpt Markets
Tags: Investing, Trading, Forex, Economics, Cpt Markets

This article is daily technical analysis from Ray Shen.

USD Index

The dollar index is in anxiety at the 100.00 mark. Too strong a dollar index will attract joint oral and even practical action from the Federal Reserve and the US government. This situation has become a consensus in the market. Therefore, whenever the US index rises above the 100 mark, the bulls will consciously close the position and leave the market, which has become a tacit understanding of the market. However, on the other hand, the continued uncertainty of the global epidemic has made the tight supply of the US dollar persist, which means that it is difficult for the US dollar index to fall below the support of the 200-day moving average of 98.30 in the short term.

The dollar index fluctuated sideways at a high level between 98.00–101.00. Today’s upper pressure is at 101.00, and the lower support is near 99.50.

GBP/USD

A British Labour Party spokesman said the government needs to provide more information on how to lift the blockade. Britain may issue 270 billion pounds (333.3 billion US dollars) of national debt in the new fiscal year beginning this month to fund the economic recovery spending plan. This will exceed the record of 228 billion pounds set in 2009–2010. The first round of three-week trade negotiations between the EU and the UK is in progress, and the EU is striving to achieve significant progress by June. The two sides must agree on the extension of the post-Brexit transition period until the end of this year before June 30, but the British Prime Minister Johnson has repeatedly ruled out this possibility.

Sterling rebounded more than 100 points against the US dollar, with the lower support at 1.2200 and the upper pressure at around 1.2400.

USD/JPY

After the new coronavirus continued to wreak havoc, the safe-haven currency attribute of the US dollar has been recognized by the market, and its investment function has overlapped and competed with the Japanese yen. Therefore, in the recent past, the two have basically maintained the same progress and retreat in the foreign exchange market. Therefore, exchange rate fluctuations between each other continue to be limited; investors are paying attention to the further progress of new coronaviruses in the world. If the pace of resumption of work in Europe and the United States is faster than expected, the willingness of investors to hold US dollar cash hedging will decline, and traditional hedging currencies Yuan may therefore strengthen.

The USD / JPY is supported at the 107.00 mark below and above the 200-day moving average at 108.30.

XAU/USD

Spot gold rose above the $ 1700 mark, and the US dollar index fell from a high level during the day. The fluctuations in the crude oil market brought more risk aversion to the market and boosted the price of gold. After the plunge in the crude oil market, there was a lot of uncertainty in the entire commodity market. For gold, hedging sentiment vigorously promoted the rise in the price of gold, and even the stable performance of the dollar did not affect it. In the next few trading days, gold will perform well, the entire commodity market will have huge fluctuations, and the uncertainty brought by the epidemic to the economy will be good for gold.

The pressure above the gold price was at the line of the previous high of 1747, and the support below was around 1680.

USO/USD

Russian Energy Minister Novak said that OPEC + and other oil-producing countries may reduce oil production by 15 million barrels / day to 20 million barrels / day in May, which will improve the situation in the oil market. And South Carolina, Georgia and Tennessee of the United States have announced that they will restart the economy and relax the control measures of the epidemic. Previously, US President Trump also said that resuming work is the strongest tool in the Lido oil market, but the oil market is still full of uncertainty. Sex.

New York crude oil 06 main contract may remain in the range of 10.00–20.00 US dollars.

PS: Today focus

14:00 Germany May Gfk Consumer Confidence Index

15:30 Germany Markit manufacturing PMI initial value in April

16:00 Eurozone April Markit manufacturing PMI initial value

16:30 UK Markit manufacturing PMI initial value in April

16:30 UK Markit service industry PMI initial value in April

20:30 United States as of April 18 at the beginning of the week for unemployment benefits (ten thousand)

21:45 U.S. April Markit manufacturing PMI initial value

22:00 US annualized total of new home sales after the March seasonal adjustment (10,000 households)

The above views are for reference only, not for ordering basis. Investment is risky, so proceed with caution.