Eureka! Europe’s Green Dream
By: Christoph Nedopil
Tags: Covid 19, Green, Recovery, Europe, Future

by Christoph Nedopil [1] and Erik Solheim [2]

COVID-19: making a once-in-a-lifetime crisis into a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for Europe

Europe’s prospects could not be better, but, its challenges have rarely been greater:

First, there is the economic and social stress, unemployment, feeling of lack of progress and identity conflicts, which Covid-19 has only accelerated. This is giving rise to populist and conspiratory forces.

Second, there is the seemingly binary choice between aligning Europe with the fast rising China and the historic ally, the US, now with an erratic government that threatens to undermine the liberal and multilateral order. This order was led and underpinned by the US, but provided the basis for Europe’s wealth and post-war peace.

Finally, the biggest threat to Europe is not limited to Europeans, but threatens the entire world and its populace. The triple environmental crisis of climate change, pollution and loss of biological diversity.

Yet, by having to address such an unprecedented event as the corona pandemic, Europe has been given a once-in-a lifetime opportunity to develop a coherent response to address all three challenges: The economy and social cohesion within the continent, its soft power internationally, and the ecological resilience in each country. A “good” crisis should not be wasted, we should build back better. For this, Europe needs to dream big. Europe must find a convincing answer that will serve its citizens better than the alternatives — today, tomorrow and in the future.

Most of Europe is already dreaming — it is dreaming a Green Dream. Technocrats with their Green Deal and the Green Finance Taxonomy. Voters by electing mayors and local governments with green agendas.

Green is not only a party. Green has become Europe’s dream.

But, as we argue here, dreaming alone won’t suffice: much action is required to fit green into Europe’s social contract that is defined by its diversity. And while many elements of a European technical framework for its green dream are in place, much stronger leadership is required in three dimensions to make the dream reality.

Europe’s Social Contract

Future developments in Europe depend on whether its citizens feel “European”, with a shared narrative and a belief that the European system serves each and every citizen better than the alternatives. This is the essence of the contract between Europe and its citizens.

To understand what defines Europe and its social contract, a lot has been written and said. In her speeches to European parliament in 2007 and 2018 German chancellor Angela Merkel praised “diversity” and the “willingness to compromise” as core European values: The freedom and possibility to develop ideas and explore plural opinions has required Europeans to create a unique political, economic and social framework. The promise of Europe has been to allow all types of European opinions and lifestyles to flourish — from Öland to Sicilia, from the Scottish Highlands to Transylvania — a promise no-one thought possible after World War II.

And most Europeans have found a plurality of political voices in the European arena. In the US, people can choose between the “for” and “against” of two parties representing ever more opposing views. In China, all people should support the one party. Europeans, while often being annoyed by endless political debates, should cherish the necessity to criticize and build coalitions in multi-party systems where more inclusive opinions are necessary. This might make decision-making slower, but ideally more balanced.

This European contract is by design not without friction as interests and technology are in constant motion. But it is exactly this constant development and friction that defines the European social contract. What is necessary to make it successful is a framework and direction that unites the many pieces of the European puzzle.

While Europe’s opinions and cultures provide for diversity, deeper currents also unite Europeans. Europeans are not questioning the state as in the US, nor are they believing in a state as strong as in China. Hardly any Europeans question the idea of the welfare state, where government provide fundamental services like education, health and infrastructure. Europeans with some few exceptions are liberal on social, religious and cultural issues. Europeans want to balance work and life, and believe in working in multilateral frameworks. Above all, Europeans seem intent on protecting what we see as European, even when that definition in itself is in question.

“90% of Europeans want to protect the environment”

When Europeans are asked about the next challenges to tackle, a staggering 90% wants to protect the environment. Climate change has for years been the most or among the most important concerns for Europeans across all countries. Of course, Europeans also fear job losses and economic insecurities. Yet, Europeans believe job losses are likely to be caused by climate change. When the political and business leaders drag their feet on environmental protection, Europeans take to the streets: A “save-the-bees” petition to protect insects and biodiversity in Bavaria, Germany in 2019 saw people lining up for hours in the cold February rains to become the most-voted-for petition. Millions of Europeans joined the Friday’s for Future movement in 2019 calling for governments to urgently address climate change.

Building a green Europe has become the common dream for most Europeans. A dream that can contribute to a credible European identity. Over the years, European institutions have already developed some leading green frameworks to support the green dream. The EU Taxonomy published in April 2020 is to date the most ambitious and clearly defined framework for environmentally aligned investments. The EU agreements on phasing out emissions and protecting biodiversity are among the most forward-looking in the world. Europe’s emission trading scheme is the world’s most advanced, aligning Europe strategically with the Paris agreement to limit climate change. The recently developed strategy for phasing out single use plastics is the most developed of any major power.

Making the European Green Dream come true

Addressing short-term challenges post-Covid19

To protect the European social contract on which the dream is built in the short-term after the pandemic, leaders must prioritize stabilizing the economy and create jobs (apart, of course, from ensuring its citizens’ health). According to recent studies by the likes of Oxford University, McKinsey and the International Energy Agency (IEA), Europe should spend its — surprisingly aggressive — EUR 750 billion stimulus as well as their national stimulus for “green” investments to generate employment and economic returns. For example, 10 million USD investments in green energy creates 75 jobs, three times more than the same investment in fossil fuel energy. This requires strong leadership to not bail out yesterday’s industries against the existing lobbies, but use the momentum to build back better and set the stage for long-term green growth.

Green Stimulus is more job-creating than fossil-fuel stimulus (Source: McKinsey)

Three foundations for long-term Green Dreaming

In the medium- to longer-term, European needs to build three foundations for a solid green European dream.

First, Europe needs green leadership that inspires and that allows the many puzzle pieces of Europe to be put in their place — in all regions of Europe, poorer and richer. Leadership will in particular mean working with business and communities to develop green policies and green business frameworks, while avoiding a prescriptive industrial policy. The diversity of Europe should be harnessed — with failures being an inevitable part of the green journey.

To invigorate this can-do spirit and be a cheerleader along this journey, Europeans leaders at all levels need to become better at telling the story of the European green dream. As an example: renaming climate change to “climate emergency” in November 2019 may galvanize some people through fear. But it does not provide an inspiring direction forward.

The need of the hour is a positive narrative, the optimistic can-do attitude of winners.

The European Green Deal provides a possible framework, but risks getting stuck in technocratic sloganeering. Europe’s green dream must inspire many more layers of society — from its cities to the start-ups, from its art to its architecture. It is not a short-term goal, but a goal that requires the enthusiasm of many generations across all spheres of society.

Both carrot and stick are needed. Europe most of all needs incentives to move forward, but also sanctioning mechanisms to punish laggards. The failure to sanction environmental destruction or continuing to support environmentally harmful activities (e.g. in financing fossil fuels, in subsidizing harmful agricultural practices) undermines trust in leadership and trust in the seriousness of the green dream.

Second, it is critical to avoid culture or identity wars based on negative presumptions regarding “green”. While the vast majority of Europeans support a green direction for the continent, there is always a danger that green issues turn into polarized societies, based on fake news or real conflicts of interest. In most of Europe young, highly educated women in cities are in the green driving seat while less educated male workers in rural areas make up for the opposite pole. Even If most green policies can be carried through anyhow, it’s critical to create broad consensus. The green transformation must be seen as just, it must create better jobs, it must be framed in a language appealing to everyone, it must avoid being an urban movement and it should stop all finger pointing.

Finally, Europe needs a clear strategy for its international partnerships to build a green Europe. Most of the environmental problems that Europe is facing are not confined to Europe, but matter to the whole world. Conversely, the actions of the rest of the world matter immensely to Europe. To truly benefit from a green Europe, leaders in the European capitals need to better reign in their reflexes of letting their short-term national interest trump more promising European goals. This only accelerates the centrifugal forces in Europe with all the negative consequences. Rather, Europe should work as much in multilateral institutions as possible to find solutions that are relevant to the global community. At the same time, in those cases where multilateral institutions are being undermined, Europe should support them by building alliances with partners who are willing to tackle environmental problems in the shorter term. European leaders should actively support emerging economies and work with those international partners who are in line with Europe’s green strategy. It should provide these countries with better investment conditions and more aid, while being clear that it does not support activities that undermine green development. Partnerships on green development with China and India are particularly important. And the US after a Biden victory will soon bounce back as a major partner for green development. American government, states and business will again be aligned in the fight against climate change and destruction of nature.

By being a reliable partner with clear domestic and international strategic policy, the expected result is an increase in Europe’s soft power, which in turn should lead to positive reinforcements: more economic opportunities in green economic sectors, attraction of international top-talents, and more convening power to set a green global agenda. Ideally, a green Europe will not have to choose between partners, but will be the partner of choice.

Eureka! A once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for a Green European Dream

Few doubt that the world is changing and that Covid-19 will be an accelerator for change. Yet, the big question is what the change will be and who will lead it. For Europeans, a change to a Green Europe is still a dream. But it is the dream that most Europeans dare to dream.

If there was ever a time to make the dream come true, the money to do it and the urgency to act, it is now. Eureka! Europeans, we can realize the Green Dream!

About the authors:

[1] Dr. Christoph NEDOPIL WANG is a German, who for the past 3 years has been working in China on green development, first with the German government and now as Director for the International Institute of Green Finance. Previously, he lived in the US for 3 years, where he studied and worked at Harvard University.

[2] Erik SOLHEIM is a Norwegian politician and diplomat. He is the former Minister of Environment and International Development of Norway and the former Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Programme. He is currently a senior advisor to the World Resources Institute