Make the Deal Real First
By: Terry Schwadron
Tags: Congress, Democrats, Deals, Biden, Senate

Terry H. Schwadron

July 15, 2021

Much hoopla was being made yesterday over an announcement about a deal among Senate Democrats on a package that Joe Biden wants for social welfare and family aid.

The idea is that a one-vote majority, including the vote of Vice President Kamala Harris, can pass a “budget reconciliation” measure without having to collect the usual 60 votes required in the Senate.

But reading in just a bit, there’s no deal.

Just as there were recent premature bipartisan smiles over agreement on a main infrastructure bill that at least several Republicans are agreeing to back, it turned out that there was no real deal then either. The sticking point then was that Biden still wanted the “human infrastructure” contained in this Democrats-only bill.

Once again, even all Democrats are not absolutely for it.

Here was our now familiar Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., repeating that he wants both a bipartisan infrastructure bill and a separate Democratic-only bill to be fully paid for. “I think everything should be paid for. We’ve put enough free money out,” he said.

At $3.5 trillion over several years, that’s a complicated promise.

Put all this together, and it is unclear why Democrats were patting themselves on the back.

Infrastructure, Again

Just to reset. Both parties want infrastructure projects, but Republicans want to limit “infrastructure” to roads, bridges, airports and internet access. According to their deal with the White House, that will cost about a trillion dollars by itself.

But to make life’s burdens fairer for more people and to head us in the right direction, Biden and Democrats want an approach to include child-care, improvements to health care, free community college, climate investment and a host of other spending priorities. Generally, their argument is that this needs upfront money to recoup the economic improvements that can result from making it easier for people to work with child care or investing in solar or alternative energies.

Thus, two bills, with separate approaches.

But:

· Republicans are balking at a “compromise” infrastructure bill that will still allow Democrats to use reconciliation to pass a second bill — all while taking credit for the money they expect to flow back home.

· Democrats face an uphill battle still with Manchin and perhaps others.

· Any “reconciliation” bill still needs to be passed with whatever else goes into it. Rulings are needed from the Senate’s parliamentarian about just what is allowable.

So, a deal is a deal only if it all can be choreographed through a cranky and split Senate.

Even Majority Leader Chuck Schumer acknowledged that “We know we have a long road to go. . . If we pass this, this is the most profound change to help American families in generations.” Schumer said he hopes to adopt the budget resolution on the floor in the next few weeks.

Dim Prospects

Slate.com said the prospects of running the table here are “extremely difficult, running right up to the edge of impossibility.”

As senators and their staff work to draft the various deals here into legislative language, there are some fairly predictable issues arising that threaten to blow up the whole thing — including how exactly to pay for it. Republicans and Manchin insist on full payment up front, which is impossible without tax increases of one type or another. Democrats want the super-wealthy to pay more taxes or, increasingly, any taxes, and insist that better IRS enforcement will churn up hundreds of millions of dollars.

Conservatives, of course, believe only in cutting taxes, mostly for corporations and the wealthy, without gauging the consequences for average families. Indeed, they see more IRS enforcement as focusing on their biggest backers.

“In short, there isn’t really a bipartisan deal yet, the votes for the deal aren’t there yet,” concludes Slate. “A lot of these deals die a thousand deaths before they actually get through,” Virginia Sen. Mark Warner, a Democratic moderate, told reporters.

If the deal holds, both the House and Senate need to pass annual budget resolutions that allow for the reconciliation to occur. It is unclear how that process will stack up this time around.

Next time you hear that senators have reached a “framework” for a deal, check again in a day or two. You don’t even have to get to the fine print to notice that it may not be as advertised.

##

www.terryschwadron.wordpress.com