Do You Think Like a Futurist?
By: The Unlikely Techie
Tags: Future, Thinking, History, Science, Mindset

Do You Think Like a Futurist?

Most people practice it and don’t even realize it

Photo by Octavian Rosca on Unsplash

While researching an article about AI ethics, I noticed that I almost overlooked a word because it kept showing up in my research: futurist. What and who is a futurist? What makes a futurist? And, am I perhaps also one without suspecting it?

According to Melanie Radzicki McManus, a futurist is “an educated individual who, after much research and analysis, makes projections about the future.” Futurists predict everything from new technologies to potential disease outbreaks, social conditions, and shifting demographic patterns. Therefore, a futurist can make specific predictions based on future trends they identify. There are no unique training opportunities to practice this profession. Still, according to Radzicki McManus, “it’s imperative that anyone considering a career as a futurist is inquisitive, creative and a critical thinker who doesn’t mind uncertainty. You also need to have the ability to imagine all sorts of unusual occurrences and situations, all within the context of solid research.”

To figure out whether we have what it takes to become a futurist, Marina Gorbis has developed five core principles for futurist thinkers.

1. Forget about predictions

Being a futurist has nothing to do with being a fortune-teller. Nobody can predict the future. However, if we look closely, we can see trends pointing towards a particular direction. There are possibilities to become more accurate when focusing all efforts on a specific point or event in the future. It has a lot to do with how and which data can be found, processed, and put into an analytical structure that makes sense (e.g., taking cultural aspects into account). Therefore, futurists look closely into the interconnection between technologies and society and economics and organizations.

Gorbis explains it as follows: “look at the difference between waves and tides. Waves are what we see on the surface. They are fleeting events, they come and go, appear and disappear. But there is something bigger underneath that is causing these waves. Underneath the waves is the tide, causing all kinds of disturbances of which waves are just one sign. Our work involves trying to understand those tides, the deeper forces underneath the waves.”

Therefore, a futurist is ready to see new trends and understand new possibilities that come from them. In a nutshell, it’s what Iman Hariri-Kia describes as the ability to “identify trends, being able to explain why they’re important, as well as what the underlying drivers are and what the implications will be to the world at large.”

2. Focus on signals

Signals futurists look for could be an emerging technology, an application, a product, service or experience, a personal observation even. It can also be a piece of data that shows something entirely different. The most important thing is to be able to classify such signals correctly. This is only possible if you read a lot and know how to do research properly. Sheryl Connelly, Manager, Global Consumer Trends and Futuring, Ford Motor Company, says that she spends a lot of time reading. “You have to do the research to come up with your point of view, and then once you have that, the rest of your time is spent cascading and communicating it throughout the organization.”

A signal is a situation, a notion, or a sudden understanding that prompts us to figure out why something is happening. Or as Gorbis puts it: A signal is anything that makes you want to dig in and say: “Why? What is causing this situation?”

3. Look back to see forward

This point speaks loudly to me. I have a degree in communications and contemporary history. Lately, I have too many reminders of how history is repeating itself. But maybe the way a historian looks at the past is not comparable to how a futurist looks at it?

In my formal training, we were trained to understand sources, how to find the relevant information from a vast sea of different sources, and lastly, how to put them into context. Context is key to any type of historical understanding of the past (also, it prevents us from citing unnecessary sources). Much to my surprise, futurists view history as a key to unlock the future. Why is that?

History uncovers larger patterns in the past that we tend to repeat over and over again.

The past provides something the future cannot: data. While historians believe that lessons can be learned from the past, they see a mathematical approach to history as problematic.

When looking at the past, we know how events played out, indicating how future trends might play out.

4. Uncover patterns

Understanding signals and putting them into a broader historical context is how patterns can be uncovered. How does the process of doing this look like? To Gorbis, this process of putting things together, filling out the blanks, is understanding the tide that expresses itself in a wave. To be aware of what the future might look like, you need to be mindful of where the past ends and the present begins. The world is continuously changing — futurists need to keep this in mind at all times.

Let’s stay with the wave example: After observing some waves, we see them retreat and then advance again. Therefore, to know whether the next wave will advance or retreat, futurists need to know which possible events (ergo signals) can influence this.

5. Create a community

To futurists, their job is not a solitary affair. To shape ideas, trends, and future implications thereof is fueled by many different people who like to think about the future together. To have more precise notions of the future, Gordis highlights that it requires a diversity of views. While we can’t predict the future, experts in various fields can potentially give insights into how trends can potentially influence their field. There are many different views on artificial intelligence, emerging technologies, demographics, economics, and organizations.

Conclusion

To Connelly, thinking like a futurist impacts decisions, we make in our daily lives. To her, we are all futurists to some extent, since we ask ourselves from time to time how life decisions turn out if we could have decided differently. There are many trains of thought that fall into this category.

Being a futurist is not about predicting the future. It is about understanding how events shaped our past and present, to conceptualize and debate trends with other interested individuals and experts and link the past to the future. In thinking deeply about complex issues, futurists can guide us into making better choices today for a brighter tomorrow.