Army-Navy Betting Preview
Tags: Sportsbetting, College Football

America’s game gets is usual, standalone spot on Saturday. Expect a low scoring, slugfest.

Army vs Navy

Saturday, 3:30pm, CBS

Army -7.5/Total 34.5

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Saturday features one of the most special environments in all of College Football when Army and Navy meet for the 122nd time. The pageantry of the game is unlike anything else you’ll see in College Football and it’s a game every fan of the sport should have on their bucket list even if the teams aren’t playing at a high level. Fortunately for the better part of the last two decades, one or both of the teams has been pretty decent. For the first time since 2002, the game comes to East Rutherford, NJ and for the first time it’s at MetLife Stadium which opened in 2010. Paul Johnson brought his option offense to Navy in 2002 which sparked a dominant run in the rivalry for Midshipmen. Navy won 14 straight in the rivalry under Johnson and then his successor Ken Niumatalolo, but Army hired Johnson disciple Jeff Monken in 2014 and that turned the tide of the rivalry. Army has won four of the last five meetings in the series and have been the better team in 2021.

It’s been a season of streaks for Army who sandwiched a three-game losing streak with two four-game winning streaks. Losing to Ball State was a bit disappointing, but there’s no shame in losing to Wisconsin or this year’s Wake Forest team. They got wins over decent Western Kentucky and Georgia State teams early in the year and the four-game win streak their on now includes wins over Air Force and Liberty. Army is second in the country in rush yards per game, but “only” 32nd in yards per carry. The fun thing about Army is that they’re second in the country in passing efficiency and eighth in EPA per pass play and first in the country in yards per completion! They’ve only thrown the ball 85 times and completed just 47 passes but ten of those have gone for touchdowns.

The havoc COVID wreaked on practice schedules messed up Navy’s 2020 season and 2021 hasn’t been much better. After a 3–7 year last year, Navy is just 3–8 this year, but at least they’ve played a little bit better of late. Excluding the Notre Dame game, which isn’t a fair measure because the Irish are a lot better than Navy at the moment, they were able to control the clock in a win against Temple, beat Tulsa without throwing a pass, and ran for 345 against East Carolina before losing on a last second field goal. The rushing performances against Tulsa and East Carolina were encouraging, but this is still a team that has struggled to run like we’re accustomed to seeing from them. They’re seventh in yards per game, but that’s just based on the volume of carries. They rank in the bottom half of FBS at 3.9 yards per carry and are 82nd in EPA per rush and 82nd in offensive efficiency because they aren’t effective throwing the ball.

The total is going to be the most analyzed part of this game from a betting perspective. It opened at 36.5 and got down to 34 in some places before coming back to 34.5. If it ends up going back down to 34 and closing there it will match the lowest total in a College Football game in the last 20 seasons per ESPN matching the 2004 Ohio State-Penn State game which ended 21–10. Unders in head-to-head games between service academies have been crazy reliable. The under is 38–9 in the last 47 games between service academies and the under has hit in FIFTEEN straight Army-Navy games. The teams rank 74th and 75th in the country in plays per game at about 69.5 and 69.4 plays per game. They grind out drives, chew up clock and don’t throw the ball very often. Even if Army is much more efficient on offense, both defenses know the offenses well because they run the same system.

As for the side, Army feels like they should be the right side because they’re just so much more efficient on both sides of the ball than Navy is, but given the lack of possessions and lack of plays that are likely to be run, I don’t feel comfortable laying 7.5 because everything else being equal, a backdoor cover feels more likely if Navy is trailing late than if Army is up by seven points or fewer. Andy had an idea that I loved which is to put Army in a teaser. I’d tease them with either 7.5 point FCS home favorites (James Madison or Sam Houston) or pick an NFL side you like (Titans or Seahawks for me, but I’m less plugged in on NFL stuff). As for the total, I would strongly consider the under even if it matches or goes under a 20 year low for all of College Football. It just seems like this is going to play out like most service academy games do and I’m not one to bank on a 15-year streak ending.