Target: Zero-carbon aviation by 2050. Start: today
By: Djordje Samardzija
Tags: Zero Carbon, Climate Change, Aviation, Research And Development, Innovation

Target: Zero-carbon aviation by 2050. Start: today

Dear Ranko, thanks for the feedback and contributing to the discussion.

In order to stay below 2°C the entire world (including aviation) has to be carbon-free in the second part of this century. To stay below 1.5°C the transition to a carbon-free economy must be completed by 2050. Being less dependant is not enough. So, 30 years to go. Enough time if everybody does what is necessary.

“It is no use saying, ‘We are doing our best. ‘ You have got to succeed in doing what is necessary.” Winston Churchill, British Prime Minister during WWII.

Speaking about what is necessary for the aviation sector it is clear that we need zero-carbon aircraft as soon as possible. And that exactly why airlines need to push for R&D in aviation. Manufacturers and designers “just” respond to airlines needs. Sure, they can be proactive as Henry Ford was, but it seems that manufacturers like to play it safe.

“If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.” Henry Ford, American businessman and carmaker.

Applying established free-market principles, manufacturers produce aircraft that are going to be sold. Sometimes they even adopt the aircraft design to meet the specific requirements of a specific airline (e.g. B747 was designed and built for Pan Am). Once airline companies tell manufacturers to produce zero-carbon propulsion, manufacturers will do exactly that. Airlines can inspire manufacturers to do some research and development if they want to.

Existing regulation (EU ETS and ICAO CORSIA) identifies airlines as the parties responsible for aviation emissions meaning that in airline interest is to undertake measures to reduce emissions. The reason why airlines don’t reduce emissions is that it’s cheaper to buy pollution allowances.

How we are going to break this vicious circle? There are two ways. Stick and carrot.

The increase in the price of pollution by implementing a carbon fee. Incentivise innovation.

I am a long time carbon fee advocate. Polluters shall pay for the pollution they made. However, this fee has to be implemented across all sectors of the economy to be effective. That may be a tedious and challenging process as we can see. There are many carbon fee initiatives across the world and the emissions are still rising.

The carbon fee will make flying more expensive which will lead to a decrease in demand. In one moment in time, airlines will react and push the manufacturers for more environmentally friendly design which will reduce their operational costs →reduction in airfares→increase in demand.

Another way is to award proactive airlines and manufacturers through innovation incentives. I agree with you that “large EU countries would create a project”. That’s the reason why I believe those EU countries shall not bail out their airlines. They shall use that money to stimulate research and innovation.

So, basically, both approaches will deliver the same result — low- or zero-carbon flying but the second approach will do that much faster. Also, it will be much funnier to work in an innovative environment making our world better place, than to fight regulation, lobby for exemptions, and eventually end as a loser in the battle against the people, governments, market forces (change of user values) and progress.

I found your “bailout equation” interesting. I do not get it completely. Probably I am missing something, but I’ll try to make a comment on this, too.

It is very important to know who is doing the calculation. We don’t want overpaid CEOs of publicly traded companies focused on the short-term benefits of their shareholders mess with the analysis of long-term costs and benefits, right?

Reading airline press releases I do not get the same impression that transporting people by air is a low-profit business. In 2017 operating margins were 8.1% resulting in total net profit of 34.5 billion USD. Forecast for 2020 (made before coronavirus) was 29.3 billion.

What happened to all that money? Oh yes, CEO bonuses must be paid off. Delta Air Lines CEO compensation is 142 times greater than the median salary in that company.

I agree with you that the airline business is to transport passengers “in the safest and fastest way possible without making too big of financial loss along the way”. I would add — with the lowest environmental footprint, too.

I also agree with you that startups will make the change rather than big oligopolistic manufacturers. It is a sad truth that companies which have resources (highly trained and experienced engineering teams, money and political support) continue with delivering the same outdated products. But that’s true for other sectors, too. Energy giants that rely their business model on the well-known, but inefficient, transformation of chemical energy of coal to electrical energy won’t lead the world in the transition to the low carbon economy. Renewable energy startups will.

This is exactly why taxpayers and governments shall not bail out traditional industries. Alike fossil fuel industry, airlines and aircraft manufacturers shall not get any cent of public money if they are going to continue with their established business models that damage the environment and increase the risk of climate change and public health costs.

Thank you once again for your contribution. The whole idea behind my series of articles was to inspire discussion. I don’t claim I have a silver bullet.

Our sector has never experienced a crisis like this. Yes, there were restrictions in flying operations before, but they were temporal and local (September 11 attacks in 2001 or 2010 Eyjafjallajökull volcano eruptions). For the first time, the crisis is global and unfortunately, long term as the first estimates show. That’s the main reason why I advocate for different and out of the box approach now.

Hope is good, but not enough. Fortunately, there is a lot of good stuff in the pipeline:

As one can see from this list, we will have zero-carbon aviation at one moment. The real challenge is to get there as fast as necessary. 2050 is our target.

Let’s work together and make this and much more happen for the benefit of future generations of passengers, aviators and the entire humanity.