Why Donald Trump Could Win Even Though He’s Losing
By: Yash Rajpal
Tags: Politics, Trump, Election 2020, Biden, Coronavirus

Since he was diagnosed with COVID-19, the president’s poll numbers definitely haven’t shifted for the better. According to recent polls, Trump is down double-digits and in every single battleground state except Georgia. Because there will likely be no other debates and the debacle that was the first one, it raises the question: can Donald Trump win this election?

To be honest, chances are that he will lose the popular vote by a wide margin. But just like last election, it’s still possible to have an electoral college/popular vote split.

To shift the election, Trump will likely have to gain voters in states like Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Iowa, and Pennsylvania to have a shot at winning the White House again. That’s going to take some more work by him and his campaign, and he’s going to have to change the rhetoric of his campaign.

But it’s still possible. As we well know by now, polls don’t give us the true picture of how the election is going to turn out, and things can change fast in the weeks preceding election day. This election is different, so here’s a couple of scenarios.

Donald Trump wins the Electoral College

Although the most unlikely of these three scenarios, this result is still quite possible. Although pundits put his chances at about one-in-seven, Trump still has a chance to pull this election. Here’s the most recent polling data for some battleground states:

Michigan: Biden 54, Trump 43

Ohio: Biden 44, Trump 43

Arizona: Biden 48, Trump 43

Wisconsin: Biden 47, Trump 42

Florida: Biden 53, Trump 43

If Trump managed to win all of those states, he’d still have to win through various combinations of North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Iowa. Long story short, this won’t be the easiest run for his campaign.

But assuming that the polls underrepresent Trump’s supporters in statewide polls, which they certainly did last election, Trump is within striking distance in Ohio, Arizona, and Wisconsin; if he carries those states, it wouldn’t be hard to conceive a Trump win on November 3rd (or later).

The Electoral College Comes Out As a Tie

Assuming that Nevada, New Hampshire, and Michigan go blue, both of which are solid leads for Biden, and Texas and Georgia go red, there are two likely, in my view, scenarios that could end up in a tie:

Biden wins Arizona and Wisconsin; Trump wins Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Maine’s Second District, and Nebraska’s Second District.

Biden wins Pennsylvania and Maine’s Second District; Trump wins Florida, Arizona, Wisconsin, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, and Nebraska’s Second District.

In this case, the election would go the the House of Representatives, where each state delegation would receive one vote; the candidate with the majority of the delegation votes would become president.

If the current congress voted, it would likely be a Trump victory: a majority of state delegations are Republican. But here’s another weird situation: if the Democrats take back the Senate and Republicans retain a majority of the state delegations in the House, we could end up with a President Trump and a Vice-President Harris.

Needless to say, this probably isn’t going to happen.

Trump Challenges the Legitimacy of the Election

Finally, there’s the situation that many fear: Trump refuses to back the results of the election. He won’t guarantee the peaceful transition of power that’s taken place in our country for centuries.

The problem with this election, however, is that there could be an illusory appearance of voter fraud. As results come in on election day, it’s likely that in-person voting could indicate a landslide victory for Trump: Republican voters are much more likely to vote in-person.

Here’s an interesting cartoon by David Horsey in the Seattle Times

However, as mail-in ballots are counted, more and more Democratic votes will be counted, causing a massive shift in the electoral college almost a week after election day.

Because Trump has been building a case of voter fraud since the onset of this pandemic, I don’t think any of us would be surprised if this did end up happening.

However, it’s likely that nothing would come out of a legal challenge by the president. As seen in 2000, the Constitution ensures that the presidential election goes through in the most efficient, if not fair, process possible, allowing for a continual transition of power: that’s probably not going to change just because one man decides to delegitimize a system that he once beat.

I know that each of the situations that I’ve listed are unlikely, but that’s just the nature of the race for our president. There’s no denying it: Donald Trump is losing this election. However angry it might make him or his supporters, electoral shift is a real thing.

But I have to emphasize one thing: this election is like no other. For the first time in American history, mail-in voting could make up an even larger percentage of the voting population, and election results may not be known even a week after the election. That just means that faith in our electoral system will undoubtedly be low.

Realistically, my point is this: Donald Trump isn’t out of this election. When some pundits thought that it was an almost guaranteed Clinton win last election, Trump beat the odds. Although from my perspective, that’s not likely to happen again, it still could. For the Democrats reading this, it’s okay to think that Biden will win; if the election were tomorrow, I think he would. But there’s a reason that the “October surprise” is a thing. Don’t be surprised if it doesn’t turn out the way you might hope it will.