A New, Highly-Infectious Mutation of COVID Could Spread Widely, and Britain Leads the Way
By: Bonny Brooks
Tags: Covid, Coronavirus, Brexit, UK, World

Being a “Brexit government” was always going to mean aggressively championing brand Britannia on the world stage. Since Boris Johnson took the premiership in 2019, efforts to boast of a global Britain have been a key priority. Doubtless, being the first nation in the world to roll out an approved vaccine was truly a moment of great soft power PR, not to mention a bit euphoric for so many Brits cooped up and cash-strapped for much of 2020.

What a sobering moment it was at 4 p.m. (GMT) today, then, when Johnson announced what we had only heard and read in whispers: A new, highly-infectious “second strain” of COVID is spreading in Southeast England.

In fact, according to Britain’s New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (NERVTAG), the mutation could be up to 70 percent more infectious than the previous COVID strain.

There are lots of mutations of COVID around the world. But it was announced today that this strain was a “constellation” of mutations that was particularly infectious. Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, said: “We think it may be in other countries as well. … It may have started [in the UK]. We can’t be sure.”

The prime minister and his advisers were keen to stress that, thus far, there is no evidence to suggest that the new strain results in more severe symptoms or greater chance of fatality. They also say there is currently no indication that it will be resistant to the vaccine, or that existing antibodies will be ineffective against it. But, “urgent work is underway to confirm this.”

Upon this writing, a nation crosses its fingers. After all, millions of Brits have already contracted the first strain, with an untold number suffering ongoing health issues. And throughout the COVID crisis, there have been no guarantees that a first infection rules out a second in the future.

The new mutation is spreading alarmingly quickly, and only a small fraction of the populace has yet been vaccinated. A densely populated country, Britain is already suffering one of the highest COVID death rates in Europe.

Flanked by his chief scientific adviser and chief medical adviser, the PM appeared in a press conference today to announce new measures to try to stop the spread. Under the new Tier 4 category, affected areas — which include large swathes of Southern England — residents need to stay at home except for essential trips or outdoor exercise. Gyms, non-essential retail, and personal care services must close. Residents are allowed to meet one other person in an outdoor public place.

The government is concerned about the new strain migrating to other parts of the country. People must not leave or enter Tier 4 areas. Scotland has closed its border.

Realistically, Britain will experience continuing restrictions until large swathes of the country are vaccinated. Under the 4 tier system, everywhere in the country is affected in some way, from limited indoor mixing in Tier 1, to the “stay at home” measures of Tier 4. It remains to be seen how many more areas will move into Tier 4, though it would seem to be only a matter of time before this new mutation gains a foothold in other areas.

The World Health Organisation has been informed of these developments. The U.K. government advice is not to travel overseas. So far, no other countries have announced a ban on travellers incoming from Britain, but it’s early hours yet.

It is one heck of a comedown for a country that was recently told the cavalry had arrived.

And then there’s Christmas.

Christmas has, for many people, effectively been cancelled, because inter-household mixing in Tiers 1, 2, and 3 is now only permitted on Christmas Day. Many of those not living in nuclear families (and especially those without cars) will be spending the holiday alone.

As with every step of the Johnson government’s management of the crisis, it’ll-all-be-fine assurances on Christmas gave way to rumours, pressure from opposition for more restrictions, leaks to the press of possible further measures to come, more assurances, followed by a heavy heart announcement. Just days ago, the prime minister insisted that Brits should have a “merry little Christmas.”

Johnson was desperate to save the festivities. No doubt his press team advised that he’d face a Scrooge portrayal otherwise. Although thanks to this week’s UNICEF donation to help feed hungry London school children, that ship has already sailed.

In truth, though, polling indicated a majority of Brits favoured a restricted Christmas over a January lockdown. People want to see their loved ones, but are desperate to get back to normal as soon as possible. Most everyone knew that multi-household mixing at Christmas would come with a cost. Anyone who follows the news will not be that shocked that Christmas has been called off.

Many of us are simply waiting for the continuing vaccine roll-out, although around a third of Brits say they are unlikely to take it. With no legal injunction to roll up their sleeves, and conspiracy theories abounding, increased lockdown weariness and social fallout may see the vaccine question grow as a culture war button.

Thankfully, with universal health care and government-backed furlough and business support schemes, most Brits don’t face the desperation plaguing millions of Americans.

“This is a race,” said Boris Johnson today, insisting that the government was trying to protect the public while we wait for the vaccine roll-out. Meanwhile, we learn this new strain has been spreading for months. Tonight, a weary nation wonders if the finish line just got further away.