End of stability in Russia’s backyard
By: Antonio E. Holanda
Tags: Belarus, War, Putin, Russia, Kyrgyzstan

Russia is facing a much-troubled backyard. A complex set of conflicts and political conundrums (Ukraine, Lybia, Syria) is followed by new outbreaks. Belarus is in revolt, Kyrgyzstan just ousted its government in a popular uprising, Armenia and Azerbaijan fight each other. All this adds to Moscow’s triple internal political pressures: an organized opposition getting stronger, a fall in popular support, as the Siberia demands have shown, and the general unease due to COVID-19.

The Armenia-Arzebaijan war

Despite the efforts towards a cease-fire by Russia and the European Union (EU), the conflict in the region of Nagorno-Karabakh is an open war. The region is under fierce attack; and the violence of the conflict has already dislodged half of the population of Karabakh, which might produce a humanitarian catastrophe like the Syrian refugee crisis.

Aside from the humanitarian tragedy, Russia faces hard choices. First, it is allied to both contenders, although it has a defense agreement with Armenia, which might pull its army into the conflict. And yet, the conflict between the two allies is only a piece of the puzzle facing the Russian leader.

The reason for the war is the Azerbaijan government over an Armenian population, which is to say: it is a war over sovereignty’s legitimacy, and its rulers, over a population that doesn’t accept them. Being Russia a large diverse country, revolts like that may trigger national and separatists movements inside its borders.

Nationality and religion are important to the conflict. Turkey is covertly helping Azerbaijan. Their ties are political and cultural. Both are Muslim-majority countries. The Turkey role makes the conflict more dangerous since the war between states could become a face-off between greater powers, like Turkey and Russia.

Kyrgyzstan popular uprising

The first thing one needs to remember about Kyrgyzstan is that is a former Soviet republic. The second thing is that it shares the border with China.

Kyrgyzstan’s history with China, or better say their history between Russia and China, goes way back. The area and the people of Kyrgyzstan held relations to the Mongols and the Chinese. It would only be around the 1840s that Kyrgyzstan would migrate to the Russian sphere of influence. And even so, they would rebel against Russian colonial power.

All this reveals a long relationship between the three parties, but also that China and Russia are entangled in a soft-power strategy dispute over the region.

“(…)while Russia’s role in the region has been seen primarily in political terms and China’s role chiefly in economic terms, these perceptions are changing, and that a growing percentage of articles are devoted to economics in the case of Russia and politics in the case of China. Another finding from this research is that China receives a greater percentage of positive coverage than Russia. It is suggested that as two important roles in the emerging multi-polar world, China and Russia should ensure their respective projects complement, rather than conflict, with one another in the region (Making Friends with Neighbors?: Local Perceptions of Russia and China in Kyrgyzstan. China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies — 2018)”.

2020 hasn’t been good for any of them. China saw one project of its Belt and Road initiative sour because of local protesters.

If China saw its business deal go bust, Russia, despite holding strong influence in the country, has to deal with a population fighting the results of an election that should have kept a Russian ally in power.

The convulsions in Kyrgyzstan are yet another fracture of Russia’s sphere of influence, says the New York Times.

And the convulsions are fierce. UN Chief, Antonio Guterres urged the protesters to stop the violence, as did China and Russia.

Despite the appeals, protesters remain on the streets. The prime minister has resigned, the elections have been all but nullified and the president faces chants of impeachment.

The election has gone South in Belarus

Election results also triggered the revolt in Belarus. In August, the country’s president, Alexander Lukashenko, celebrated an electoral victory. He claimed having being preferred by 80% of the voters. The people thought it different and went to the streets to say so much so.

After that, it has been a sequel to popular unrest and police violence against protesters. The situation grows in violence and tumult by the day, with the government forces trying to both control the manifests and arrest the opposition leaders.

As a countermeasure to put pressure on the government to solve the up reveal peacefully, the EU imposes sanctions on Belarus officials, Poland and Lithuania have called their diplomats back. The government doesn’t seem to budge. It has persecuted opposition leaders, like Maria Kolesnikova.

Belarus’ ruler, Lukashenko, count on Russian economic and political support. Putin has pledged money to easy the political situation of his ally. Besides that, Russia has openly chosen sides.

The opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya has been put on the wanted list by Belarus and the Russian authorities. This move sets a political agenda: Putin will try to hold together stability and central power in its sphere of influence. He doesn’t want to let ideas of democracy leaking from his fringes to the Russian state.

Putin is, to put it mildly, an authoritarian leader, and an authoritarian leader can’t let examples of popular distress be successful, or they may face the same revolts.

It is likely tension will grow in the region, and more violence will be used against civil opposition. And one can only wonder if it’s not spring-time in Russia.