College Football 2017 Bowl Picks Against The Spread
By: Tyler Duffy
Tags: Sports, College Football, Gambling, Sports Betting

College Football 2017 Bowl Picks Against The Spread

Bowl season is here. Here are my picks against the spread, excluding playoff games. Here is a post on bowl betting trends for The All-American.

Bowl games, semi-random exhibitions a month-plus after the season, can be hard to predict. General advice: Fade consensus. Fade bigger name G5 teams where the performance adds up. Pay attention to which team wants to be there. Take the points.

My best bets have an *.

New Orleans: North Texas (-6.5) vs. Troy

Cure: Georgia State (-6.5) vs. Western Kentucky

Las Vegas: Oregon (-7.5) vs. Boise State

Oregon is a much, much better team with Justin Herbert healthy at quarterback. The 2018 Heisman buzz starts here.

New Mexico: Marshall (+5.5) vs. Colorado State

Camellia: Middle Tennessee (+3.5) vs. Arkansas State

Boca Raton: Florida Atlantic (-22.5) vs. Akron

This is not a de facto home game for FAU. It’s a true home game. FAU ranks 12th in S&P+. Akron ranks 110th.

Frisco: Louisiana Tech (+5) vs. SMU

SMU lost Chad Morris. Louisiana Tech had four one-score losses. Too many points.

Gaspirilla: Temple (-7) vs. Florida International

Bahamas: Ohio (-7.5) vs. UAB

Potato: Central Michigan (+1) vs. Wyoming

Birmingham: Texas Tech (+2.5) vs. South Florida

The best team USF beat was Temple, 86th in S&P+.

Armed Forces: Army (+7) vs. San Diego State

Dollar General: Toledo (-7.5) vs. Appalachian State

Hawaii: Houston (+2.5) vs. Fresno State

Fresno State has lost its last six bowl games outright and ATS. The last four weren’t even close.

Heart of Dallas: Utah (-7)* vs. West Virginia

Trust Kyle Whittingham in bowl games. He’s 10–1 straight up and 8–3 ATS at Utah. Holgo is 0–4 ATS since dropping 70 on Dabo after 2011.

Quick Lane: Northern Illinois (+5.5) vs. Duke

Nothing inspires a P5 team like spending Christmas in Detroit to play a MAC team. One of the nation’s top efficiency defenses against a Duke team head to 17 points or fewer five times in ACC play.

Cactus: UCLA (+2) vs. Kansas State

Snyder is the anti-Willingham when it comes to bowl play. The Wildcats are 3–7 overall in his last 10 bowl games, 2–8 ATS.

Independence: Southern Miss (+15.5) vs. Florida State

High efficiency Southern Miss defense vs. low efficiency Florida State offense. FSU in a crappy bowl after a disappointing season and having their coach fired. Statistically, it’s not clear why Southern Miss isn’t favored.

Pinstripe: Boston College (+2.5) vs. Iowa

Iowa in bowl games is the opposite of Iowa at home in late autumn. The Hawkeyes have lost their last five, going 1–4 ATS. Roll with the dudes.

Foster Farms: Purdue (+4)* vs. Arizona

Arizona lost by two touchdowns or more to every team not Oregon State in November. Purdue has a top 10 run efficiency defense. Rich Rodriguez is 3–7 ATS in 10 bowl games at West Virginia, Michigan, and Arizona.

Texas: Missouri (-3) vs. Texas

Missouri won six-straight to close the season, scoring 45-plus points in each game. Not sure Texas has the offense to stay in this one. Don’t trust the Longhorns to keep the lid on Mizzou’s explosive passing game.

Military: Navy (-1) vs. Virginia

The best unit is Navy’s offense.

Camping World: Virginia Tech (+4.5)* vs. Oklahoma State

VT has far and away the best defense Oklahoma State has faced in 2017.

Alamo: Stanford (+2.5) vs. TCU

Stanford tends to be quite solid ATS in bowl games.

Holiday: Washington State (-2.5) vs. Michigan State

Michigan State is great at stopping the run and limiting explosive plays. Washington State throws it all the time and relies on efficiency.

Belk: Wake Forest (-3) vs. Texas A&M

The Aggies’ last convincing performance against a P5 team came in September.

Sun: Arizona State (+6.5) vs. N.C. State

ASU beat three top 40 S&P+ teams. This feels like too many points.

Music City: Kentucky (+7) vs. Northwestern

Trust one of the nation’s least explosive offenses to build up or hang onto a multiple score lead? Nope.

Cotton: Ohio State (-7.5)* vs. USC

USC played one Top 25 SRS team, Notre Dame, and lost by 35. Ohio State is better than the Trojans at pretty much everything, except passing their way out of long downs (which they won’t be in because USC can’t stop their run game).

Arizona: New Mexico State (-4) vs. Utah State

Taxslayer: Mississippi State (+6.5) vs. Louisville

Mississippi State can give Louisville problems in the trenches and make them one-dimensional. Too many points.

Liberty: Memphis (-3.5) vs. Iowa State

Memphis’ passing game should overwhelm the Cyclones.

Fiesta: Washington (+2)* vs. Penn State

Penn State lost Joe Moorhead. Washington has Chris Petersen with time to prepare and is the nation’s best defense at stopping explosive plays.

Orange: Miami (+6.5) vs. Wisconsin

Wisconsin is playing a consolation game. Miami is playing a home game and its first major bowl game since 2004.

Outback Bowl: Michigan (-7.5)* vs. South Carolina

Michigan has a point to prove and a healthy quarterback. South Carolina fired its offensive coordinator ahead of facing Michigan’s defense.

Peach Bowl: UCF (+9.5) vs. Auburn

Scott Frost is staying to send UCF off with an undefeated season. Auburn has nothing to play for.

Citrus: LSU (-3) vs. Notre Dame

LSU trended upward toward the season’s end. Notre Dame trended downward on both sides of the ball and got smoked by two comparable teams in Miami and Stanford.