Of the Irish Elk and Our Schools. How our educational metrics fail us
By: Jesse L.
Tags: Opinion, Thoughts, Ramblings, Education, Economics

Just look at those antlers…

TL;DR:

Grades can lie, our schools are outdated and please teach something other than how to take a test for a change.

Main Points:

Our educational metrics (grades, test scores, college degrees) are not primarily designed to measure educational progress or competency but are part of a system of competition that makes decisions on who gets what limited educational resources in our society (diplomas, college acceptance, employment)

Helping students score well on these false metrics have become the primary goal of our educational institutions and has become more valuable in our society than actual learning.

In an era of rapid technological change, the attributes and decisions that lead to students scoring highly on these metrics are becoming precisely the attributes and decisions that ensure they are ill suited for success in the 21st century economy.

Moving forward, we will develop new processes, systems and metrics to measure achievement, Companies, schools and individuals who do not adapt to this emerging reality will be at a disadvantage and will eventually perish.

The Irish Elk, a species of deer that lived some 8,000 years ago, is most notable for it’s gigantic horns which were about as twice as long as the deer’s height and weighed upwards of 88 pounds. However, for those of us who are not particularly interested in paleontology, the most remarkable aspect of this animal is the tale of it’s extinction. Having huge antlers is a massive investment in terms of nutritional resources because the stag must also develop stronger neck muscles as opposed to something like leg muscles to run faster. While these antlers may have been useful in occasional self defense situations against predators their primary purpose was likely the same of that of stag today: sexual selection. Antler size helps the stag in competitions with other stags for the right to mate with does. Does are attracted to larger antlers because they represent a useful indicator for how suitable a mate the stag is. It follows that the better the stag’s genes are, the more likely it would be healthier, the bigger the horns it will be able to grow, the more likely it will be able to fend off opposing stags in jousting competition, and the more likely it’s offspring will survive and propagate. However, as the climate, vegetation and predators change, such massive nutritional investment into the antlers can turn into a liability. In addition to a huge nutritional cost, massive antlers could hinder the stag’s mobility, preventing it from accessing food in tightly packed forests and preventing it from evading predators. This is further exacerbated by the fact that the does continue to choose the stags with the biggest antlers (which now are less fit to survive than those who grew smaller ones), producing offspring with larger antlers, perpetuates a cycle that results in the extinction of the entire gene pool. Whether this is an accurate interpretation of the cause of extinction of these animal is besides the point. I see this story of maladaptation as a convenient analogy for the issue of using metrics in our education system. Just as the huge antlers were the downfall of the Irish elk, our metrics are turning into a destructive force in our education system and society.

Metrics are vital for human society because they enable us to make decisions that would be impossible to make without them. Just as it is easy for the doe to make a mating decision using the stag’s antler size as an indicator, it is much easier for us look at a Harvard diploma when considering an individual’s educational status. They mask complexity and give the illusion of certainty, fooling us into thinking things are simpler than they actually are and enabling us to take action in the process. The real danger is when they betray truth outright and begin sabotaging the purpose for which they are created. The stock market, a popular indicator for the health of the economy, can be at all time highs in the midst of the small business Armageddon during a devastating global pandemic. The “P-Value” used by scientists to indicate the significance of test results can be “hacked” with statistical chicanery. The number of Instagram followers, likes, views, comments can all be bought. This is one of the more insidious ways for truth to die in our society: being supplanted by a more comforting but malicious impostor. Yet we accept this risk because decisions based on possible lies are still better than not being able to make decisions at all.

Our education system itself is one such institution that cannot exist without them. Just as a doe’s offspring can only have one male DNA contributor, our schools are designed to be able to delegate limited resources to a much larger demand for it’s services. Thus, at ever checkpoint, it purports to calculate one’s likelihood of success in the next level with metrics that are meant to be close approximations of reality. First, we almost entirely decide who can advance to an undergraduate program with three key indicators: the grade point average(GPA), a standardized test score (SAT) and financial weight class. We then decide who can advance to a graduate program (GMAT) with another measurement of GPA, standardized test score and, again, ability to pay tuition. Finally, intelligence/competency/employment prospects are supposedly dependent on the brand and level of diploma obtained. These metrics are the equivalent of the elk’s antlers because they have, at best, a loose correlation with what they are suppose to measure: worthiness of further education in our society. Just as an elk with the largest antlers are not necessarily the ones that possess the best suited genes for the next generation, those with the highest SAT scores, the highest GPA and most advanced degrees from the most prestigious universities may not be the best qualified employees. The GPA primarily measures one’s ability to navigate the classroom environment and memorize information, the SAT primarily measures one’s test taking skills and income level. The prestige of one’s college application is primarily a function of the GPA and SAT metrics and, again, income. While it is true that individuals do not necessarily need to participate in this game in order to be successful in our society, not doing so puts them at a huge disadvantage. This is not because of the accuracy of these metrics but they are the are the spark of a powerful self fulfilling prophecy: if employers think you are competent because you finished your degree at an Ivy League school, they are more likely to give you opportunities. The more opportunities received, the more competent you actually become, the more opportunities you will get, and so on and so forth. Like the doe choosing and mating with the stags with the largest horns and producing offspring with genes that produce large horns, companies, seeing some success in their current recruiting methods, continue placing more and more emphasis on test scores, certifications and grades as competition rises. This further incentivizes schools to optimize their curriculum towards maximizing their student’s test taking abilities. The schools that are most optimized towards maximizing their student’s testing prowess are rewarded when their graduating class appears more successful with getting accepted into companies and are encouraged to optimize further. This continues to reinforce the prophecy and myth that “those with the best grades and highest degrees from the best universities are the most capable and worthy of employment.” And by believing this and making decisions based on that belief, the myth becomes reality. Ultimately, we end up in a state where we have an education system forever reaching, not towards our purported objective which is preparing students for the workforce, but for more tangible replacements such as perfect grades, test scores and college names — growing larger and larger antlers.

Again, this dynamic is not only acceptable but unavoidable. The doe does not have an omniscient calculation of the stag’s fitness for survival and neither do companies have an omniscient overview of the competency of the prospective recruit. In both cases, making a decision using an imperfect metric is infinitely better than making no decision at all. However, the real problem comes when these indicators become the primary objective. Just as Moses found the Israelites worshiping the golden calf idol, we are increasingly finding ourselves in a society that worships educational metrics rather than true learning in whatever form it may take. Heavy handed policy decisions such as No School Left Behind and Common Core has accelerated this trend by pressuring teachers into optimizing further towards maximizing the student’s testing abilities. Parasitic organizations such as SAT prep camps and the College Board profiteer off the parent’s desperation to grow their student’s antlers — even when it comes at the expense of other, less ornamental parts of their educational body.

Even more disconcerting, like the ever changing environment of the Irish Elk, the skills that are necessary to succeed in the 21st century are now starkly different than those required in the previous one. Machines and automation continue to eat away at the tasks that they can and, disturbingly, they have the greatest affinity for the skills that are most measurable and most frequently taught in schools — such as doing computational operations and memorizing rout information. Though, viewed from the perspective of antler analogy, it makes complete sense that our school curriculum remains completely obsolete. In mathematics, for example, completely impractical done-by-hand operations such as long division are memorized and drilled to perfection after they are taught — even when computers can do the same thing effortlessly. These operations are not taught because they are handy in the real world but because they are easy to test and sufficiently difficult that a predictable number of students will falter and winners of the largest antlers contest can be chosen and get acceptance from Ivy League schools. From a pedagogical standpoint, much of our curriculum is focused, not on learning relevant information, but the equivalent of training students in chess and pitting them against each other for the spoils of the highest grades and test scores.

Furthermore, the opportunity cost of growing such massive antlers grows steeper and steeper as new career paths open up in competition with the traditional one of getting a degree and applying to jobs at corporations. The Internet has made small scale entrepreneurship and artistry as realistic career paths for millions. Emerging professions such as programming are much more suited towards self education and alternate models such as coding boot camps. In 1960, these options did not exist and for many, the most reasonable path to get good grades, get in a good college and start applying for jobs. Now, students must make agonizing choices between these paths knowing that every second spent moving towards a degree is a second moving away from something more fulfilling — even as the value of the degree erodes incrementally. Additionally, it is tragic that the students who worked so hard to develop the skills to succeed in the school environment (obedience, computer-like precision, tolerance for repetition, short term memorization) are the ones that are putting themselves at the greatest risk of being replaced by computers when they could have been developing skills that are more suited for the 21st century (creativity, critical thinking, self awareness, emotional intelligence etc.).

These antlers remain a threat to our society because their requirement is a form of economic deadweight loss: a cost imposed on society due to inefficiency. Every SAT prep book sold, interest on college debt accrued and teacher who is forced to “teach to the test” carries the opportunity cost of resources spent on more fulfilling or practical educational experiences. As the delta between the utility of these metrics and the perception of their importance grows, the stagnation of our education, labor force, economy and society grows with it.

However, as these ornamental antlers become heavier and heavier and increasingly less practical, our fate may not be quite as dismal as that of the Irish Elk. The doe supposedly continued to choose the stags with the biggest horns until the species perished. As the myth in the value of these antlers begins to crumble under the weight of reality, nimbler companies may realize that these metrics are not only wrong but harmful to their bottom line and they will adopt new metrics and hiring practices. Assuming our economy remains dynamic, companies who refuse to change will be at a disadvantage and be more likely to perish — setting the stage for evolution in hiring practices and less emphasis on outdated metrics. What will these new metrics and hiring practices look like? Like a curve forever reaching towards an asymptote, companies will never find a perfect system of determining the likelihood of success of job candidates so the best they can do is replace harmful faulty metrics with more helpful but faulty ones. Candidates will likely still have to get certifications for skills, study for tests and be measured quantitatively. The hope is that these metrics would be closer aligned with the reality of the 21 century work force, resulting in greater productivity and more efficient schooling towards that end. Perhaps for procedural positions such as machine operation, futuristic virtual reality simulations could be used to test the skills directly instead of certificates from organizations that may or may not have provided the adequate training. Perhaps, the new hiring practices will be radically different because the very concept of employment is fundamentally turned on it’s head and we see the rise of new systems like the gig economy that have little resemblance to the 9–5, hourly waged archetype of the previous century. This is already idle speculation, since a healthy economy is like evolution in a natural environment: generating unimaginable and unpredictable forms to fit their environments to replace old and obsolete.

Schools and curriculum will hopefully shift with the demand of employers and the antiquated hiring practices of the past few centuries will gradually perish and give way as well. However, much of the danger in this shift falls on our public school system, which is backed less by the free-market-driven survival-of-the-fittest dynamics but by taxpayer dollars and tradition. They will likely be more resistant to change and if they fall further and further into obsolesce and more and more of the wealthier families flock to alternative education services that are more responsive to the changes in the labor market, the two tiered society between the rich, mostly white, elite and the impoverished majority will become solidified by an equally stratified education system: a completely obsolete one bent growing huge antlers that is provided to the public and a distillate one that must be paid for and is only afforded to those with means. This, of course, is already happening and the trend can either start to slow down or speed up.

The implications for individuals are much clearer than those for our society. My entirely unsolicited and unqualified advice for students is this: accept the antler-growing competition as a cruel but important and currently unavoidable part of life in our society. However, never mistake your educational antlers for your educational muscles. Having high grades and degrees does not mean you are necessarily entitled to anything in our economy and having low grades and no degrees does not mean you are incompetent or a failure. In fact, I believe the inverse may be becoming truer and truer as time passes. However, physical and mental well being aside, there is nothing more important than your actual education and personal development. Try to learn as much as you can from the fossilized schools and colleges without being sucked into the antler measuring contest. Be sure to also take advantage of new sources that were not available to our professors and parents when they were students: go on YouTube, participate in online forums, listen to podcasts, create your own educational experiences outside of school. Also, look for less brittle ways to grow your antlers to show potential employers you are worthy (networking, building a portfolio of your work, producing content). The 20th century education system may be failing us, but we, as 21st century students, have the tools to ensure that we don’t have to fail ourselves.

Afterthoughts and further ramblings:

– Not a scientist.

In all likelihood, it may be apparent to any biologist that I have completely butchered the evolutionary theory behind deer antlers or the extinction of the Irish Elk. I do not claim to have any expertise or domain knowledge whatsoever on this subject but I contend that the analogy I presented is still useful, even if it turns out to be fictional.

- No, I am not going to try and convince you, Professor.

Most tenured professors, college administrators and other people who work in education will be opposed to this sentiment and fight it as it as if their livelihood depends on it. That’s because, to them, it does. Students who already sank into tens of thousands of dollars of college debt will also fight these sentiments as if the value of their GPA depends on it. That’s because, to them, it does (see sunk cost fallacy). People will not change their opinion if it does not serve their vested interests to do so. I was a very angry undergrad when I was trying to argue with my professors and classmates on this matter because I didn’t understand this fact but now I feel that I do. Denial is a strong part of human nature and that will never change. Please have some empathy for them.

- Naïve Technological Panacea

I once believed that the powers of the Internet to make information freely available would soon free society from the clutches of the educational gatekeepers and their antler metrics. After all, if education can be freely obtained with a laptop and half decent Wi-Fi, education as a service would not be a scarce good. If education is no longer a scarce good, what use is are antlers as a mechanism for distributing it as a scarce good? People would finally be judged not by their antlers but their true competency! We would be on the brink of a purely meritocratic society!

I was not the first and will definitely not be the last to fall for this trap. It’s this utopian thought that fueled the MOOC craze a decade ago and the ill-fated One-Laptop-Per-Child project a decade before that. After witnessing the plight of schools in 2020 and some personal reflection, I can see now that this is a privileged sentiment designed to quell cognitive dissonance around the unfairness of our society with placid complacency. Information may be freely accessible but students don’t learn from just information. Students learn from the experience of consuming and interacting with new information. Education is the service of guiding students through their new found information, making sure it is properly imparted and has a lasting impression on their psyche so that it enhances their abilities and their perspective. Simply putting students in front of a hundred video lectures, PDFs of textbooks, Zoom calls and making them take crude online quizzes isn’t going to educate the vast majority of them. We are still at least decades away from anything remotely resembling Nell’s Primer in Neal Stevenson’s The Diamond Age. In the meantime, I contend, begrudgingly, that we still need teachers. We still need schools. We still need to focus on improving on the shortcomings of our current system rather than be able to abandon it for something fantastical.

-Speculations are speculations

I made a speculation that the competitive labor market will eventually correct this inefficiency and the importance of GPAs, college diplomas and test scores will slowly dwindle. It can, however, just as easily go the other way. Our education can become further perverted and gamified by the importance of these metrics to the point that they are truly worshiped. The new metrics that spring up and replace the old ones may become even more important but even more false and harmful than the old ones. Who knows? We might end up in a dystopian, cyberpunk, Black Mirror-esque, Psycho-Pass-like society where everything in society is determined by crude metrics like ratings and scores. The imagined future is and always will be fraught with risk and peril.

Where is your empirical evidence?

How empirical can you be when the rulers you are using are directly changing what they are measuring? It’s ironic some in our society will argue for the veracity of false metrics in education with the help of more false metrics from social science. Unlike physics, in social science, the perception of evidence is relative to one’s position in society. While, many students and teachers need nothing more than their own lived experiences to see that the test scoring system is worthless, College Board executives might demand case studies, surveys and longitudinal studies to see the same thing. Even when they get their results and “evidence”, they will not draw the same conclusions if it costs them their bonuses.