F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Betting Preview
Tags: Sportsbetting, F1, Formula 1

The wildest F1 season in recent memory comes to a close and here are some ideas for crazy bets if there are fireworks.

I had only a passing interest in Formula 1 for a long time. I’d watch races here and there, but never fully invested in it, but like so many Americans once I watched the Netflix documentary series Drive To Survive I became enamored with the sport. That fascination with the sport reaches its peak on Sunday with the conclusion of the 2021 season at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix. The Netflix show certainly over-dramatizes the drama within the sport, but we’re set for the greatest legitimate drama the sport has seen in decades.

There’s a dead-heat at the top of the standings on 369.5 points between seven-time champion Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen who is looking to win his first driver’s championship and end Hamilton’s four-year reign. It’s the first time there’s been a tie for first entering the final race of the season since 1974. The season has been exceptionally dramatic. Following back-to-back wins in Austin and Mexico City, Verstappen had a 19 point lead on Hamilton with four races to go. Hamilton was disqualified during qualifying at the next race in Sao Paulo moving him from first to fifth, but he overcame that to win in Brazil, thanks largely to a new engine that Mercedes rolled out for that race. He won the following two races in Qatar and Saudi Arabia, and by virtue of the extra point for running the race’s fastest lap, he’s now tied with Verstappen at the top of the standings.

Entering Abu Dhabi, Hamilton is a pretty massive favorite to win the final race and the trophy. There’s two ways you can bet the Hamilton vs Verstappen showdown. You can bet the race itself which includes the two of them and the other 18 drivers in the field or you can just bet on who is going to win the title. As far as the race odds go at FanDuel, Hamilton is the favorite at -180 and Verstappen is the second favorite at +195. As far as the championship odds go, Hamilton was -210 and Verstappen was +160 before the odds came off the board, presumably to see how practice and qualifying go. In a Formula 1 race, the top ten finishers get points in descending intervals. Neither driver needs to win the race to win the title, they just need to finish ahead of their first-place rival. There’s an extremely unlikely scenario where one of them finishes 9th and the other finishes 10th and the 10th place finisher gets the fastest lap point and they end up tied, but I’m not banking on that happening.

There’s a much simpler way they can end up tied and that is what makes this race all the more interesting and fun to think about from a betting perspective. If neither driver finishes in the points then obviously they remain tied and Verstappen wins the championship because he won one more race during the season than Hamilton. There has been some speculation, mostly but not entirely unfounded, that Verstappen may try to wreck Hamilton. If the FIA, the governing body of F1, determines Verstappen intentionally wrecked Hamilton, he’ll be penalized. That said, Verstappen is quite aggressive on the track and he and Hamilton have had multiple run-ins this year. They went wheel-to-wheel three times early in the season. Hamilton crashed Verstappen out of the race at Silverstone, was given a 10-second penalty and still won. They both crashed out of the race at Monza which was the scene of the dramatic video of Verstappen’s car landing on Hamilton’s only for the protective halo to prevent serious injury or death to Hamilton. Verstappen was given a grid penalty for the following race. They’ve had dust ups the last couple of weeks, but no wrecks. There’s serious rivalry here.

There’s also the makeup of the Abu Dhabi track which is vastly different from the way it was set up last year. Formula 1 wanted a more exciting race with more opportunities for passing in the season finale, so they made some major changes to a few of the turns. The changes were made in an attempt to allow for closer racing and more overtaking, but the teams also feel like it will help the flow of the race and make the track faster.

Hamilton is a massive favorite because his car has been better and because of his experience level. The pressure is all on Verstappen here to win his first championship. If his car isn’t quite as fast as Hamilton’s, the track is designed for more passing attempts and he drives ultra-aggressively, there could be some serious fireworks in the race. I see it going one of two ways. The possibility that Hamilton just wins the race because he’s in the best car and he’s the most accomplished driver is very real and why he’s such a favorite. The other scenario, the one I’m rooting for, is for Verstappen to race like a wildman and for something crazy to happen. If the latter is going to happen, I’ve cooked up some REAL galaxy brained scenarios to make small wagers on for big profits over at DraftKings Sportsbook. These were up as of Thursday, but are off the board currently. Check back once all the practice sessions and qualifying sessions are over to see where the odds are. Obviously, if something dramatic happens, odds will shift so stay vigilant, but let’s presume for now it’ll be normal up until the race starts.

The first one is called the “F*** Mercedes Parlay”.

Valtteri Bottas has been Hamilton’s teammate at Mercedes since 2017, but it’s been a weird partnership. In 2018, Mercedes asked Bottas to get out of the way so Hamilton could pass him and win a race in Russia to boost his championship chances. Bottas has felt like a second banana ever since. He was going to be forced out at Mercedes eventually, and even though he technically announced he was leaving Mercedes for Alfa Romeo for next year first, but Mercedes had been planning to replace him with wunderkind George Russell for a while now and Sunday is his last race with the sport’s top team. It would be pretty funny if he ended up winning the race while Hamilton was crashed out of the race by Verstappen. Over at DraftKings Bottas to win the Abu Dhabi GP (+1400) Verstappen to win the Championship (+165) is +3875 so a $10 bet would net you $387.50.

The second one is called the “Red Bull Gives You Wings Parlay”

I just like the name. There’s less of a story here, but this is just parlaying Verstappen to win the title with his Red Bull teammate Sergio Perez to win the race. Perez is the fourth favorite at +2800 so to combine that with Verstappen to win the championship in a parlay is +7585. Mercedes and Red Bull are by far the two best constructors so I wouldn’t bank on anyone else to win the race right now. Keep an eye on qualifying and see who does well and starts near the front of the pack and if you want to get really squirrely, you can parlay the Verstappen championship play with someone else, but it’s always tough predicting anyone outside of the Mercedes and Red Bull teams to have a shot to win. If you want to go crazy I’d suggest Charles LeClerc or Carlos Sainz because those are probably the most consistent drivers in the next tier.