The mother of all biases
By: Vivek Shanmugasundaram
Tags: Cognitive Bias, Bias, Confirmation Bias, Cognitive Dissonance, Psychology

Confirmation bias. The mother of all misconceptions. It’s the tendency to interpret new information so that it becomes comparable with our existing beliefs and convictions. In other words, we filter out any new information that contradicts our existing views.

“What the human being is best at doing, is interpreting all new information so that their prior conclusions remain intact” — Warren Buffet.

You would have come across this bias commonly in your corporate life. For example, senior leadership decides on a new strategy. Then the team enthusiastically celebrates any sign that is a success. Everywhere they look, they see plenty of confirming evidence, while indications to the contrary remain unseen or quickly dismissed as ‘exceptions’.

What can you do? If the word exception crops up, prick up your ears. Often it hides the presence of disconfirming evidence. There is a famous story about how Charles Darwin tackled this bias. Whenever observations contradicted his theory, he took them seriously and noted them down immediately. He knew the brain actively forgets disconfirming evidence after a short time. The more correct he judged his theory to be, the more actively he looked for contradictions.

Nowadays, social media is a breeding ground for confirmation bias. Information we are presented on media is not only reflective of what the users want to see but also of the designers’ beliefs and values. Today, people are exposed to an overwhelming number of news sources, each varying in their credibility. To form conclusions, people tend to read the news that aligns with their perspectives. For instance, new channels provide information (even the same news) differently from each other on complex issues (i.e. religious issues, political parties, etc.), with some using sensational headlines/pictures and one-sided information.

Due to the biased coverage of topics, people only utilize certain channels/sites/tweets to obtain their information to make biased conclusions.

People are susceptible to confirmation bias to protect their self-esteem (to know that their beliefs are accurate). To make themselves feel confident, they tend to look for information that supports their existing beliefs

Cognitive dissonance also explains why confirmation bias is adaptive. Cognitive dissonance is a mental conflict that occurs when a person holds two contradictory beliefs and causes psychological stress/unease in a person.

To minimize this dissonance, people adapt to confirmation bias by avoiding information that is contradictory to their views and seeking evidence confirming their beliefs.

To avoid being susceptible to confirmation bias, start questioning your research methods and sources used to obtain their information.

Confirmation bias occurs when people tend to look for information that is confirming their beliefs/hypothesis, but this bias can be reduced by taking into alternative hypotheses and their consequences. Considering the possibility of beliefs/hypotheses other than one’s own could help you gather information in a more dynamic manner (rather than one-sided way).

To fight against confirmation bias, try writing down your beliefs — whether in terms of worldview, investments, marriage, healthcare, diet, career strategies — and set out to find disconfirming evidence(easier said than done :) ). Axing beliefs that feel like old friends is hard work, but imperative.