Just How Many People Have Died Within the UK Because of Covid-19
By: Matthew Bottomley
Tags: Covid 19, Data, Data Visualization, UK

Covid-19|What the Data Shows

Confused by various sources of information that circulate about Covid 19? Not sure the extent to which people are dying with Covid-19 or because of Covid-19?

You are not alone.

Within a series of articles I aim to get to the bottom of the numbers by taking a detailed look at the official numbers here within the UK. My two sources are:

Daily flash numbers on a website dedicated to coronavirus data: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ . Official data on UK deaths provided by the Office of National Statistics.

This article will focus on a simple question — how many people have died/are dying because of Covid-19?

Subsequent articles will examine:

What impact does age have on Covid19 fatality rates? Do we have to worry about our children as well as our grand-parents?

What is happening across the regions? Are we all in it together?

What does the data tell us about the Second Wave?

So, How Many People Have Died Within the UK?

The official source of death data in the UK is the Office of National Statistics. They have reported that 60,460 people have died within England and Wales up to the week ended 13th November.

There is some controversy over this number as many believe this includes people who have died with Covid-19 not necessarily because of it.

On face value it looks like this argument has some merit. Official statistics provided by the Government show that up to 13th November, a total of 52,453 deaths have occurred within the UK where the death occurred within 28 days of a positive test for Covid-19. This is broken as follows: England: 45,955; Wales: 2,259; Scotland: 3,355; Northern Island: 844.

This suggests that the ONS data may be overstating Covid as the cause of death by some 12,000 cases (60,460 vs 48,214 (England 45,955+ Wales 2,259).

Note: the argument being that for Covid 19 to be the cause/trigger based on the virus’ behaviour death would ordinarily occur within 28 days.

However, this is not the full story.

Expected Annual Deaths

To get closer to the truth, it’s possible to compare the current years monthly death data with that of prior years. [UK death rates have remained stable averaging around 525k deaths a year for many years now]. The chart below shows the current year’s weekly deaths for England and Wales and compares this to both last year and the previous five year average.

The Chart clearly demonstrates:

how this years deaths have differed from the norm.

the impact of the initial outbreak in the Spring.

the return to normal levels of deaths during the Summer months.

signs of a second wave as we enter Autumn.

Overall, to the 13th November some 530 thousand deaths have been recorded for England and Wales against the usual average of between 465–470 thousand. The chart suggests that these excess deaths (totalling some 60–65 thousand) are the result of Covid-19.

The logical follow on from this is that the total deaths reported within 28 days of a positive test is under-reported/fails to accurately report the true level of Covid-19 deaths. It is likely that the most significant under-reporting occurred during the initial outbreak — this will be the subject of a further article.