Gearing up for the playoffs — Which Top Shot player is the best buy on the road to the NBA Finals?
By: Balazs Pal, Thebarrelzone
Tags: Gambling, NBA, Analytics, Nba Top Shot, NBA Playoffs

Gearing up for the playoffs — Which Top Shot player is the best buy on the road to the NBA Finals? Balazs Pal (@TheBarrelZone) Apr 17·14 min read

The NBA playoffs will start in a little over a month and as multiple TS analysts project the next boom to happen during the playoffs (with the registrations opening up before the playoffs) I’ve put together a list of players I’d consider good buys before the playoffs begin.

I’ve also compiled a list of popular players that will likely see no to a minimal playoff run. I’d probably stay away from these players if you are looking to be flipping your newly bought moments during the playoffs as we have solid proof that no one will be looking to buy players that aren’t actively playing games (just look at jersey sales data during the playoffs every year, all the highly sought after players are on teams making deep runs).

Jamal Murray won’t be playing in the playoffs this year after his injury on 13 Apr

Remember, two months is an eternity in Top Shot time, most of us haven’t even been on the platform two months ago. Zion is great, but he won’t be on TV screens from 05/22 to 07/22 and moments of the top players in the playoffs will appreciate more if a boom indeed happens.

Here is the list of the top five teams in each conference that are the most likely to make it to the Finals. All of these 10 teams have a 7% or higher implied probability of getting to the finals based on both the current betting odds from Bet365 and FiveThirtyEight’s public NBA projections (wanted to use public resources for this, so you can follow up on the changes of probabilities o your own. To convert odds to % you can use AceOdds). I also added their current seed and the strength of their remaining schedule (courtesy of Tankathon).

Top 10 teams a month away from the playoffs

EAST

Brooklyn Nets | 38–18 record, 2nd seed. Remaining schedule difficulty: 10th.

Milwaukee Bucks | 46–26 record, 3rd seed. Remaining schedule difficulty: 14th.

Philadelphia 76ers | 50–22 record, 1st seed. Remaining schedule difficulty: 26th.

Miami Heat | 37–35 record, 7th seed. Remaining schedule difficulty: 23rd.

Boston Celtics | 41–31 record, 5th seed. Remaining schedule difficulty: 25th.

WEST

LA Lakers | 43–29 record, 5th seed. Remaining schedule difficulty: 7th.

LA Clippers | 49–23 record, 3rd seed. Remaining schedule difficulty: 27th.

Utah Jazz | 54–18 record, 1st seed. Remaining schedule difficulty: 29th.

Phoenix Suns | 50–22 record, 2nd seed. Remaining schedule difficulty: 3rd.

Denver Nuggets | 46–26 record, 4th seed. Remaining schedule difficulty: 12th.

These are the 10 teams we will focus on when determining which players to stack up on. According to the FiveThirtyEight projection, any other team besides these 10 has less than a 2% chance (and besides the Hawks and the Mavs less than 1% chance) of getting to the Finals. I have to add that my own projections also come extremely close to this and I also make these 10 teams the most likely to win their conference. If you want to go with the locks stick to the top 3 teams in each conferences (Nets-Bucks-76ers & Lakers-Clippers-Jazz). I have a hard time seeing any of these facing a first round exit.

Before detailing the players to buy list I’ll list the players I’d personally not buy if you are buying moment now to sell during the playoffs. I’ve listed these players out of the list of the current top 50 Top Shot players (based on their market cap from Flowmarketcap) that are likely not going to be relevant between 05/22 to 07/22.

Zion Williamson

Luka Doncic

Steph Curry

Ja Morant

Damian Lillard

LaMelo Ball

RJ Barrett

Anthony Edwards

Zach LaVine

Trae Young

Jamal Murray

Derrick Rose

Carmelo Anthony

Karl-Anthony Towns

Russel Westbrook

Rui Hachimura

Bradley Beal

Tyrese Haliburton

Julius Randle

John Collins

Pascal Siakam

Kristaps Porzingis

Kevin Porter Jr.

De’Aron Fox

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

An overwhelming majority of the players on this list won’t make the playoffs at all, but even for the most playoff-relevant names on the list (Doncic, Lillard, Curry), the absolute ceiling is a second-round exit. If we look at how the Mavs / Blazers / Warriors match up with their possible opponents it doesn’t look good (they are going to be huge underdogs in each of the rounds that they make) and two of these three teams will likely have to get to the playoffs through the play-in tournament which also hurts their chances.

Even if they all make the playoffs these guys most likely all face a 0–4 / 1–4 type of first-round exit, which means that they won’t be too relevant through the playoffs.

Again, I have to stress that I’m not saying that players on this list are a bad long term hold (some of the best long term holds are on this list), but the goal of this post is to identify players with upside during the 2-month playoff period if another Top Shoot boom/influx of new users is happening. If you are in it for the long run and you are not looking to sell moments during the playoffs then you should not be worried at all holding any of these top 50 players.

Now we are looking into the previously identified top 10 teams, and I’ll share my thoughts on all of them. We are going to focus on the top handful of players from each of these squads as Top Shot is understandably top-heavy and we can expect that the new users during the playoffs would likely lean towards buying a Tatum moment than a Payton Pritchard. Of course, unforeseen breakout stars are rising up every year during the playoffs (Tyler Herro anyone?), but this post is more about finding the players that are almost a lock to look good in the playoffs rather than gunning for the long shots.

Here is the current Playoff Picture from NBA.com:

EAST

Brooklyn Nets | 38–18 record, 2nd seed. Remaining schedule difficulty: 10th.

The Nets look like the biggest lock on the list, but there is a slight chance that their road to the Finals could be a bit trickier than expected. They are currently overwhelming -115 (53.5% implied probability) favorites to win the East on Bet365, but after losing their last game to the 76ers (and the Sixers facing the easiest remaining schedule out of all teams in the East) they will likely finish the East holding onto the second seed. Currently, they would have to face the Heat in round one, which I’m personally (and other NBA analysts I’m talking to also) projecting to be the most difficult first-round matchup for them in the playoffs. Still, the Nets are easily the top team in the East next to Philly and all of their stars will likely shine during the playoffs, even if their first-round won’t be as smooth as many expect it to be.

Top players:

Kevin Durant — Top option, multiple great & relatively affordable S02 LE moments (including his BKN debut).

— Top option, multiple great & relatively affordable S02 LE moments (including his BKN debut). James Harden — Currently out with a hamstring strain, could be a bit of a ‘buy low’ spot while he is out.

— Currently out with a hamstring strain, could be a bit of a ‘buy low’ spot while he is out. Kyrie Irving — The most healthy, less risky of the trio, but likely with the lowest upside. Two great s01 moments. He doesn’t have an S02 LE, but his SS moment is very cool.

Milwaukee Bucks | 35–20 record, 3rd seed. Remaining schedule difficulty: 14th.

I’m low on the Bucks for multiple reasons. The knee of Giannis isn’t 100% (he missed 6 games in a row now and was visibly hurting before this stretch) and if he is not at 100% they won’t go deep into the playoffs. They are also most likely stuck at the third seed setting up a second-round date with Brooklyn. I simply don’t see them winning that.

Top players:

Giannis Antetokounmpo — Health could be an issue and the upside for a deep playoff run seems limited. Also, tons of moments on the TS marketplace and it isn’t easy to project which one could blow up.

Philadelphia 76ers | 39–17 record, 1st seed. Remaining schedule difficulty: 26th.

My ‘sleeper’ pick to win the East, maybe even to win it all. They are now fully healthy, in the driver seat to finish on the top of the East getting close to a free ticket to the ECF, which equals a strong playoff run.

Top players:

Joel Embiid — He has the second-best odds to win the MVP at +200 and while grabbing that award seems unlikely, he has a huge upside as a likable MVP candidate on a big market team likely getting to the ECF. Give me all the Embiid’s.

— He has the second-best odds to win the MVP at +200 and while grabbing that award seems unlikely, he has a huge upside as a likable MVP candidate on a big market team likely getting to the ECF. Give me all the Embiid’s. Ben Simmons — He is not going to light up the scoreboard like Embiid, but is the heart of this team on the defensive end. The Australian connection is a nice adition and he has multiple very cool moments on the marketplace (S01 assist, S02 MGLE behind the back assist, etc.)

— He is not going to light up the scoreboard like Embiid, but is the heart of this team on the defensive end. The Australian connection is a nice adition and he has multiple very cool moments on the marketplace (S01 assist, S02 MGLE behind the back assist, etc.) Tobias Harris — Clearly the third most popular player on the team, but he can go nuclear if needed. I think he has nice upside and could serve as a cheap entry point for anyone looking to buy some Sixers stock.

Miami Heat | 28–28 record, 7th seed. Remaining schedule difficulty: 23rd.

Last year’s finalist got really hurt by a long stretch of Covid-related absences and multiple long-term injuries. They haven’t put it together so far but will have four more weeks to do so while being mostly healthy (- Oladipo). IF any team is capable of playing spoiler in the East it is likely Miami in my opinion. They have ECF-upside and while that is a long shot, I don’t think it is unreachable for them. I have been disappointed by Miami multiple times in the last few weeks and I don’t fault anyone for staying away, but could be a nice buy-low team that can make waves in the playoffs.

Top players:

Jimmy Butler — Jimmy is great, but I’m not sure that he has as much upside/unlocked potential as the much younger Bam (especially if you are also buying moments for a potential longer hold). He is still relatively affordable for the caliber of player he is and you get a proven vet and a borderline superstar for cheap among most sets.

— Jimmy is great, but I’m not sure that he has as much upside/unlocked potential as the much younger Bam (especially if you are also buying moments for a potential longer hold). He is still relatively affordable for the caliber of player he is and you get a proven vet and a borderline superstar for cheap among most sets. Bam Adebayo — Young, priced cheaper than Jimmy with better upside in the long run in my opinion. Likely the player I’d focus on if you give Miami a shot.

— Young, priced cheaper than Jimmy with better upside in the long run in my opinion. Likely the player I’d focus on if you give Miami a shot. Goran Dragic — Getting old, not really in form, no huge fan base. I’m not getting involved with him.

— Getting old, not really in form, no huge fan base. I’m not getting involved with him. Tyler Herro — Generally overpriced on TS as he was a poster child for the platform. Also shooting pretty terribly so far this year. Maybe he comes to life during the playoffs?

— Generally overpriced on TS as he was a poster child for the platform. Also shooting pretty terribly so far this year. Maybe he comes to life during the playoffs? Victor Oladipo — Currently out injured, barely played a few games with the squad. Is extremely cheap compared to others, but with his injury history, he is a risky bet. I’m also not 100% sure he will come back in time for the playoffs. Extremely risky, with some upside.

Boston Celtics | 30–26 record, 5th seed. Remaining schedule difficulty: 25th.

I’m not buying them. The Celtics have a relatively easy remaining schedule, but they further downgraded their frontcourt at the trade deadline which was a terrible move. They also lack true playmaking / a real PG.

Top players:

Jayson Tatum — 1A option on the team.

— 1A option on the team. Jaylen Brown — 1B option on the team, very similar stats to Tatum, also had a few breakout games lately. Priced considerably cheaper compared to Jayson, might be a nice upside move to buy him.

— 1B option on the team, very similar stats to Tatum, also had a few breakout games lately. Priced considerably cheaper compared to Jayson, might be a nice upside move to buy him. Marcus Smart — Not flashy enough, clearly the third-best option on the team, but being the third-best option on a middling playoff team in the east is not good enough in my opinion

WEST

LA Lakers | 34–22 record, 5th seed. Remaining schedule difficulty: 7th.

Risky with nice upside? Despite the Lakers still being the favorite on most public betting sites, they are not nearly the favorites to win the west according to my numbers and also according to other projection systems. AD is now cleared for full contact and is likely coming back within 7–10 days, but LBJ is 10–14 days behind him and that means he is likely coming back just before the playoffs. Both guys would need to be at 100% and back in game shape for the start of the playoffs for them to make a big run. Is it possible? Absolutely. Is it likely? Yes. Is it a lock? No.

Top players:

LeBron James — The king of TS with an 18% market cap of the platform’s total. This might be a hot take, but I don’t think there is any upside in buying LBJ moments now. It could be seen as an injury buy low, but it really isn’t. He won’t win MVP this year and his team should be around the 5th — 6th most likely to win a championship if you are projecting this realistically factoring in the injury risks. Also, all of his past and future achievements are already priced into his moments. If anything I’m expecting his market share to drop, especially if he is still on minutes restrictions by the time the playoffs come around (which could lead to a first-round exit). I still think LA will be okay and they will get to the second or third round, but I see no upside here.

— The king of TS with an 18% market cap of the platform’s total. This might be a hot take, but I don’t think there is any upside in buying LBJ moments now. It could be seen as an injury buy low, but it really isn’t. He won’t win MVP this year and his team should be around the 5th — 6th most likely to win a championship if you are projecting this realistically factoring in the injury risks. Also, all of his past and future achievements are already priced into his moments. If anything I’m expecting his market share to drop, especially if he is still on minutes restrictions by the time the playoffs come around (which could lead to a first-round exit). I still think LA will be okay and they will get to the second or third round, but I see no upside here. Anthony Davis — Also out with an injury, AD hasn’t been amazing this year, but he will be back within 7–10 days and will likely carry the team in the last few weeks of the regular season once his minutes’ restrictions are lifted (expected to play only around 15 minutes a night once he comes back). If I’d buy any Lakers stock now I’d look at AD as he is more likely to peak by playoff time than LBJ and you can get a nice discount on his moments right now.

LA Clippers | 39–19 record, 3rd seed. Remaining schedule difficulty: 27th.

I have the Clippers winning the west and getting to the finals. They still have longer-term health issues (Beverley, Ibaka), but both guys should be cleared by the time the playoffs come around. Could be a sleeper team similarly to Philly. Not many are talking about them, but they are quietly performing pretty consistently despite both PG and Kawhi missing games / sitting out back-to-back sets, etc.

Top players:

Kawhi Leonard — He is probably the cheapest superstar on TS right now and I’d consider him the top buy next to Embiid going into the playoffs. He is not a ‘regular-season player’ and might not be extremely popular, but his stock should rise considerably during the playoffs.

— He is probably the cheapest superstar on TS right now and I’d consider him the top buy next to Embiid going into the playoffs. He is not a ‘regular-season player’ and might not be extremely popular, but his stock should rise considerably during the playoffs. Paul George — 1B option, although he is clearly the second-best player on the team. PG is priced very low across all sets (even in the new Holo legendary one) and can be considered as a nice, relatively cheap entry point to buy some LAC stock without having to buy the 4th or 5th best player of a top team. I like him as well.

Utah Jazz | 42–14 record, 1st seed. Remaining schedule difficulty: 29th.

They will have the best record in the west and will have a ‘free pass’ in the first round facing a team like Memphis for example (who really shouldn’t be in the playoffs). Many are doubting their ability to perform well in the playoffs and this isn’t a popular team, therefore their players are very cheap on TS.

Top players:

Donovan Mitchell — Clearly the player to own from Utah. He is relatively cheap across all sets despite him being the best player on the 1st seeded team in the west. Mitchell is also on a heater lately. Side note: he rolled his ankle last night, no info on the MRI results yet, but him being okay is something you want to confirm before betting on Utah making a run in the playoffs.

— Clearly the player to own from Utah. He is relatively cheap across all sets despite him being the best player on the 1st seeded team in the west. Mitchell is also on a heater lately. Side note: he rolled his ankle last night, no info on the MRI results yet, but him being okay is something you want to confirm before betting on Utah making a run in the playoffs. Rudy Gobert / Mike Conley — I’d rate them as 2A and 2C, both guys are key to the success of Utah. Gobert has been playing relatively mediocre in the playoffs and I’d probably go with Conley for the upside. He can still blow up and deliver high-scoring games or moment-worthy assists despite being 50 years old. I’d stuck with Mitchell when buying into the Jazz though personally.

Phoenix Suns | 40–15 record, 2nd seed. Remaining schedule difficulty: 3rd.

Another dark horse similar to Utah. Great regular-season record, but not much playoff experience and a few questions heading into the playoffs. Ayton will be styled on in multiple possible second-round matchups and I think they aren’t even a lock to come out of the first round.

Top players:

Devin Booker — A bit similar to Mitchell in pricing and him being the young star on a team that is doubted by most analysts. I’m not a huge fan of PHX, so I won’t be getting involved with him, but I’d say he is def the guy to buy if you think they will be fine in the playoffs.

— A bit similar to Mitchell in pricing and him being the young star on a team that is doubted by most analysts. I’m not a huge fan of PHX, so I won’t be getting involved with him, but I’d say he is def the guy to buy if you think they will be fine in the playoffs. Chris Paul — He elevated this mediocre squad to one of the top teams in the west, but CP3 is a very well-established player on TS and his moments are priced where they should be. Really not much career upside left for him unless they go all the way and he can add a championship ring to his accomplishments.

Denver Nuggets | 36–20 record, 4th seed. Remaining schedule difficulty: 12th.

Losing Murray was a huge hit to this team. Denver was the hottest team after the trade deadline and everything was looking pretty amazing for them up until losing their second-best player. Sadly they are very thin at guard and they lack the talent that could really run this team with Murray on the sidelines. Jokic is the MVP and MPJ plus Gordon are great, but without Murray I expect them to lose in the first round, especially if they run into the Lakers which seems the most likely matchup based on the current standings.

Top players:

Nikola Jokic — If you are buying Jokic stock now you are buying him winning the MVP and TS possibly giving out MVP badges to all S02 Jokic moments. Although if Dapper decides to release an MVP set (like they did last year) after Jokic wins the MVP then the value of all S02 Jokic’s could tank. Denver not being a lock anymore to go deep into the playoffs makes this bit of a risky buy, although the price is right and there seems to be some value out there in multiple sets.

— If you are buying Jokic stock now you are buying him winning the MVP and TS possibly giving out MVP badges to all S02 Jokic moments. Although if Dapper decides to release an MVP set (like they did last year) after Jokic wins the MVP then the value of all S02 Jokic’s could tank. Denver not being a lock anymore to go deep into the playoffs makes this bit of a risky buy, although the price is right and there seems to be some value out there in multiple sets. Michael Porter Jr. — He has been lights out for months. Extremely young, huge upside. I think he is more a player to buy long-term if you believe in the Nuggets than to buy him for these playoffs. You also have to note that with Murray’s injury happening so late this season even their next season could be screwed.

My targets are below. These are my personal favorite top options out of the previously listed players. I’m actively looking to purchase moments of these players right now and expecting appreciation by the time the playoffs end due to their deep playoff runs / good playoff performances:

Kevin Durant

James Harden

Kyrie Irving

Joel Embiid

Ben Simmons

Kawhi Leonard

Paul George

Donovan Mitchell

Some wild cards below. More risky, but possibly high-upside plays, if you are into those:

Bam Adebayo

Anthony Davis

Devin Booker