Best, Worst, and Most Realistic Expectations for the Phillies
By: Max Gamarra
Tags: Sports, Writing, Baseball, Phillies, MLB

Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins celebrating (Photo Credit: Drew Hallowell/Getty Images)

Baseball season is on the horizon, which means so are the Phillies. Under new manager Joe Girardi, the Phillies look to improve upon their disappointing 4th place finish last season. The team made some improvements this offseason, adding some big names like Zack Wheeler and Didi Gregorius to the roster, but will it be enough to vault them into the conversation for the NL East crown? Probably not, but let’s take a look at the best, worst, and most realistic expectations for some key players on the Phillies.

Bryce Harper

Harper performed well in his first season with the Phillies, accumulating 4.6 WAR*, which was good for 25th among position players. If he can return to MVP form this season, it could bring the Phillies one step closer to contention. A season in between his 2015 MVP campaign and his first season with the Phillies would certainly go a long way in helping Philadelphia become real contenders. A 9+ WAR season is a bit too unrealistic of an expectation for anyone not named Mike Trout, but Harper has shown he is certainly capable of it and could return to being a top 10 player this season.

Best case scenario: 6.7 WAR

Fangraphs projections: 4.3 WAR

Worst case scenario: 3.5 WAR

JT Realmuto

Realmuto had a stellar first season with the Phillies, which ended with him winning the Gold Glove and Silver Slugger awards at catcher and being named to the inaugural All-MLB team as the first team catcher. He was worth 5.7 WAR, which ranked 15th among position players and was the highest by a catcher since 2016. He had an amazing season both with the bat and behind the plate. If he comes close to replicating that again this season or even what he was in his last season with the Marlins, the Phillies should be in good shape. (Extend him please)

Best case scenario: 5.0 WAR

Fangraphs projections: 4.2 WAR

Worst case scenario: 3.0 WAR

Rhys Hoskins

Rhys had a hot start to 2019 and things were looking well for him, but after an abysmal second half, he finished with a line of .226/.364/.454 and 2.2 WAR. There were some bright spots for Hoskins including leading the National League in walks and showing his power with 29 home runs. The biggest thing he can do to improve is to perform consistently well throughout the entire season. If Hoskins is able to hit his projections for the season, without going through extended cold streaks, it would be a successful year for him and a good sign for the future.

Best case scenario: 3.0 WAR

Fangraphs projections: 3.0 WAR

Worst case scenario: 1.0 WAR

Scott Kingery

Kingery’s career got off to a good start in 2019. He was above average with the bat and was able to play multiple positions well, which was important for a team that was riddled with injuries throughout the season. Girardi said that it was likely he would find one position and stay there throughout the season but we will see.

Best case scenario: 2.0 WAR

Fangraphs projections: 1.1 WAR

Worst case scenario: 0.9 WAR

Andrew McCutchen

Cutch was one of the most valuable players on the team through the first 59 games before an ACL injury ended his season. He finished the season with 1.5 WAR but was on pace for almost 4 when he went down. He excelled as the everyday leadoff hitter for a team that struggled to find anyone to fill that role in his absence. The best thing he can do is bring consistency back to the leadoff spot and hopefully return to the player he was before his injury.

Best case scenario: 3.0 WAR

Fangraphs projections: 2.2 WAR

Worst case scenario: 1.2 WAR

Jean Segura

Segura contributed well last season with 2.2 WAR over 144 games. He has consistently ranked as one of the league’s best when it comes to BABIP and has shown the ability to be an above average defender at shortstop or second base. Hopefully for the Phillies, he can continue to do so this season after a slightly disappointing 2019.

Best case scenario: 3.0 WAR

Fangraphs projections: 2.4 WAR

Worst case scenario: 1.2 WAR

Didi Gregorius

Gregorius missed a lot of time in 2019 while recovering from Tommy John surgery on his throwing arm but is hoping to bounce back with the Phillies. In the two seasons before his injury, he was worth 4.1 and 4.7 WAR. Gregorius could provide a major boost for the Phillies offense if he’s back to full strength and gets his timing worked out. An entire off-season in which he can focus on his game instead of recovering from injury should help him in that quest.

Best case scenario: 3.4 WAR

Fangraphs projections: 2.2 WAR

Worst case scenario: 1.3 WAR

Alec Bohm

Alec Bohm is the Phillies #1 prospect and is slated to make his major league debut this season. It’s unclear when he will make his debut and how much time he will spend in the majors but it is clear that he will be ready soon after he slashed .305/.378/.518 with 21 home runs in 165 games last year. The best thing he can do would be to play defense well enough to stick at third base for the foreseeable future after he gets called up. If he can’t, it may create a bit of a logjam with Rhys Hoskins already occupying first base.

Best case scenario: 1.2 WAR

Fangraphs projections: 0.5 WAR

Worst case scenario: 0.2 WAR

Aaron Nola

Nola struggled at times during the 2019 season but overall, he had a great season. He had a 14 game stretch last year where he looked like his 2018 self, going 9–5 with a 2.21 ERA and allowing opposing players to hit just .183. He needs to look more like that than the pitcher that lost each of his last 7 appearances. Hopefully, he can return to being a Cy Young contender this season and be one of the bright spots for an uninspiring pitching staff.

Best case scenario: 5.0 WAR

Fangraphs projections: 3.8 WAR

Worst case scenario: 3.3 WAR

Zack Wheeler

Wheeler was the Phillies biggest acquisition this offseason, especially since they took him away from a division rival. He was worth 4+ WAR in each of his last two seasons with the Mets and has improved every season he has been in the majors. If he is able to bring that level of production to the Phillies, their rotation may not resemble that of a 60 win team anymore.

Best case scenario: 4.5 WAR

Fangraphs projections: 3.3 WAR

Worst case scenario: 2.6 WAR

Spencer Howard

Spencer Howard is the #1 arm in the Phillies farm system and will likely make his major league debut this season along with Bohm. Any above average pitching will be an upgrade for the back end of the Phillies rotation so seeing him on the mound at CBP would be a welcome sight. There have been reports that he will have a 150 inning limit for his first season in the majors but those 150 innings could prove to be very valuable for a team that basically had to pull starting pitchers off the street at the end of the season.

Best case scenario: 1.2 WAR

Fangraphs projections: 0.0 WAR

Worst case scenario: 0.0 WAR

Calculations

To figure out the total WAR for each scenario, I used the Fangraphs projected WAR for each player that wasn’t mentioned in the article. The players not mentioned in the article combined for a total of 8.2 WAR (yikes).

Best Case Scenario: 38 WAR + 8.2 WAR

Fangraphs Projection: 26.9 WAR + 8.2 WAR

Worst Case Scenario: 18.2 WAR + 8.2 WAR

Best case scenario: 46.2 WAR

Fangraphs projections: 35.1 WAR

Worst case scenario: 26.4 WAR

To calculate a projected win total from WAR, you multiply .294 by the number of games played (162) and then you add it to the teams total WAR.

Ex. ( .294 x 162 ) + ( 33.4 WAR ) = 81 Wins

Best case win total: 93.8 Wins

Fangraphs win total: 82.7 Wins

Worst case win total: 72.0 Wins

Final Thoughts

The best case scenario, while unlikely, would be a welcome surprise. It involves a combination of a few things. First, it would require players like Harper, Realmuto, Nola, and Wheeler to have some of the best seasons of their careers. Other players, like Gregorius and McCutchen, would need to return to being the players they were before they suffered major injuries. The Phillies would also need their top prospects to make an impact as soon as they arrive in the majors. It’s an unlikely scenario, but it’s not impossible.

The worst case scenario is hopefully much less likely to happen. It would involve almost everything going wrong this season. Harper and Realmuto don’t have all star caliber seasons while Nola and Wheeler are unable to pitch to their full potential. Cutch and Didi aren’t the same players after their injuries and are just slightly above replacement level. Finally, none of the young players (Kingery, Bohm, Howard) are able to take that leap and they all have disappointing seasons. While this scenario is very unlikely, it just goes to show how much unwillingness to go into the tax affects this team’s floor and ceiling.

The most realistic scenario is that they are close to the same team as last year. The top level players play well but the bottom half of the roster isn’t good enough to put them over the top and they stay around .500 for most of the season. Unless ownership is willing to go into the luxury tax to improve the roster, it’s very likely that the Phillies will end up with another 4th place finish in the NL East.

*all WAR numbers are from Fangraphs