The Art of “Exit” around Super Tuesday
By: Xiaodong Fang
Tags: Democratic Party, Super Tuesday, 2020 Presidential Race

The Art of “Exit” around Super Tuesday

U.S. Presidential Election | Photo: https://www.irasutoya.com/2016/02/blog-post_49.html

After one of the most “remarkable” Super Tuesdays (March 3, 2020) in recent party nominating history, two front runners were standing out. Former Vice President Joe Biden, winning most of the Southern States as a pull off, was leading the moderate faction of the Democratic Party, whereas Senator Bernie Sander, winning California — the State with the most delegates, was leading the left-wing faction.

Photo by Vidar Nordli-Mathisen on Unsplash

The Duel

As the factional front runners determined after the Super Tuesday, the 2020 Democratic nominating process was then entering the phrase of between-faction competition with Biden vs. Sanders, just as the Sanders vs. Clinton in 2016, and the Obama vs. Clinton in 2008. The proportional rules of Democratic Party delegate allocation will make it hard for either one of the contenders to generate a quick momentum towards the majority of pledged voters, which makes the nominating race a prolonged process. Not until June had Obama in 2008 and Clinton in 2016 clinched the nomination.

In 2020, the head-to-head duel between Sanders and Biden would be a tough situation for the Democratic Party, as the incumbent President Trump faces no serious challenger in the Republican Party. The more time it takes to become the presumptive Democratic nominee, the less time the primary winner has to heal the wound for the general election campaign.

Related: Why the missing of “Spring Interregnum” didn’t hurt Biden in the 2020 presidential election?

Brokered convention?

Another potential situation this year would be a brokered convention if none of the candidates clinches the majority pledged votes before the 2020 Democratic National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. This would rather increase the difficulty for the Democratic Party as the “Spring Interregnum” — the period between presumption nomination and the national convention, will be missing for Democrats.

Either way, it would take tremendous efforts for the final 2020 Democratic nominee to challenge the incumbent President Trump in the general election.

The Exit

Right before Super Tuesday, two moderate Democratic candidates, Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar, dropped out of the 2020 race and both endorsed Biden for the nomination. Their exits combined the moderate coalition at the very point and made Biden enjoy a comfortable run without in-faction rivals, while Sanders still faced a head-to-head competition with Warren on the left side.

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Though Warren’s remaining on the race would probably hurt the left-wing faction and critics argued that she should depart in a graceful way, however, I think it is too hasty to presume that the co-existence of Warren and Sanders will hurt the left-wing ticket. In terms of delegate allocation, the Democratic proportional rule ensures that those finished second, third or even left behind still receive their proportional delegates, as long as they have passed the 15% threshold.

Perhaps a later exit of Warren would contribute more pledged votes for her future endorsement to either of the remaining candidate. And in return, it would give her more leverage to affect the party platform and pursue her advocates.

*On March 5, Warren suspended her campaign and she declined to endorse either Bernie Sanders or Joe Biden.