What do this year’s Congressional special elections mean for 2020?
By: Daniel Mcglone
Tags: Dataviz, Elections, Election 2020

So far 2019 has featured three special U.S. Congressional elections. It’s tempting to read the tea leaves of special elections to predict how political parties will fare in the next election. Especially considering all three special elections in 2019 are in highly-contested swing states; North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Many speculate that special election results can be a predictor of future election outcomes. The Cicero team tracks all special elections at the national, state and local level (for 350+ cities and counties) in the U.S. We keep track of election results and monitor future elections, but we don’t make predictions on election outcomes.

Credit: REUTERS/Jonathan Drake

Last Tuesday, North Carolina hosted two special Congressional elections. North Carolina’s 3rd District was an open seat due to the death of longtime Congressman Walter Jones, who passed away on February 10th. North Carolina’s 9th District was open for a much more complicated reason. Allegations of voter fraud caused the state board of elections to invalidate the 2018 election results and put into motion a special election this year. The allegations accused the Republican candidate, Mark Harris, of using campaign finances to fund an effort to fill out and submit ballots fraudulently. Unofficial election results in 2018 show he narrowly won the election. Harris claimed health reasons for not running in the special election.

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Above, we plot the special election results so far this year, compared to their results in the 2018 election. We also have each district’s Cook Partisan Voter Index and change in Democratic result. Republicans won all three special elections, although North Carolina’s 9th district was close. These results, compiled on September 11th, are likely to get just a bit closer as more ballots are counted. Democrats might not find a lot to feel good about: the districts we can compare against 2018 (PA-12 and NC-9) show an actual small decline in Democratic vote. Note that North Carolina’s 3rd District did not have a Democratic candidate in 2018.

While the election results don’t show great promise for Democrats, it is important to note that the Republican margin in North Carolina’s 9th District was less than it’s Cook Partisan Voter Index. If anything, these results may show the further urban-rural polarization between Republicans and Democrats. Pennsylvania’s 12th and North Carolina’s 3rd District are both mostly rural districts while North Carolina’s 9th District contains a portion of rapidly-growing Charlotte’s southern and southeastern suburbs. Perhaps this shows the continued polarization of urban areas voting more Democratic and rural areas voting more Republican.

North Carolina’s 9th District stretches across the southern part of the state, encompassing much of the southern part of the Charlotte metro

As always, the Cicero team updates the results of special elections in our database as soon as they are known. If you would like to share the special election results, you can do so with the table below.