A Look into $BTC and over 2 Years of Charting Analysis
By: Andrew Kamal
Tags: Cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, Charts, Crypto, Cryptocurrency Investment

Bitcoin has long been one of those assets that interested me. I been interested in cryptocurrency and blockchain markets since 2011. I long been somebody in the community who has thought out the technological implications of what Bitcoin can provide. Infact, one of the most interesting things is cryptocurrency as a rise of a new asset class. When I first registered on a site called TradingView, one of the first things I talked about was Bitcoin. My enthusiasm relies primarily on the technology, however I long been interested in the price correlations of Bitcoin. Up until today, it is still quite difficult to predict movements as cryptocurrency support levels have still been quite volatile. In this article, I want to look at slightly over two years of charting analysis I have done, some mistakes, as well as indications of the future through a technical/buy-side perspective.

Now first off, let us look into the past. One of my first analysis was on December 21st, 2017. I had a short position and said that BTC was going to have a small dip. Now my “small dip” prediction was a bit too generous because at the time, BTC lost nearly a third of its value the next day. It was one of the most significant drops in Bitcoin’s history. It also made many institutional investors run to the bearish train. I still ended up being significantly bullish on BTC for my next analysis, where I said it is still investible at the $13.4 to $14.4k price point. However, BTC followed a bearish correlation and dropped to as low as $3,300 a year later. This made my HODL long analysis, and trading hours analysis look really horrid in comparison. The next few month I was overly bullish.

If you look to another analysis I done, my end of the year 2018 prediction was way off. I was hoping the EMA close would be at least past 6k, and thinking a fib retracement of even at least 16000 would be conservative. I even remember myself saying in a tech conference and saying the exact same thing at TradingView, that I am hoping for a $30k by the end of 2018 price point. I, like many other people were way off. The fact that I was so wrong lead me to become less of a fan of over speculative investing. It also made me realize the concept of volatility much harder. Even looking at altcoin investments, I went from high returns to my portfolio plunging.

Now a following analysis I done afterwards, looked at a continued HODL. Obviously, if I held BTC I would still safeguard myself in finding ways I can accumulate more Bitcoin through switching positions or even investing technologically like mining. That being said, I was starting to become the poster child of someone who is HODL’ing all the time.

Now the chart above that I am looking at is still from 2018, and it is when I reached a low point. I believed at the time that the price of Bitcoin bottomed out, but I was very wrong. I also changed my prediction of $BTC hitting $30k by the end of 2018 to $15k in which I was also way off. After a while, I looked at the negative rally, and even price retracement potential. If you were somebody bullish on Bitcoin, 2018 wasn’t a good year for you.

After disappearing for a while, at 2019 I started becoming more reasonable. At $8312.14, I said it could retrace to $9k then hit a downwards spiral. That analysis is here. While I was a bit off on timing, I started being more realistic in knowing shortening patterns and retracement periods. The whole 2018 fiasco was also a hit for many other people being too bullish on Bitcoin. Big names such as the Winklevoss Twins and Tim Draper also seemed overly enthusiastic. Even tech entrepreneur John McAfee was already wrong on his Bitcoin prediction as well.

Fast forwarding to April 26th of this year, I am now comparing $BTC to Gold as an asset class. I stated that $BTC is now seeming to become more bullish and that Gold seems like it may start becoming more bearish. Bitcoin at that time had a $7361 price point. The next few days I looked at $10K shorts, continued rallies, and the pre/post halving price. I also looked at the stock $GBTC.

Fast forward to May 25th of this year, and you can see it at a $8910.46 price point. I stated that BTC needs to hit $9k+ and my believe that it could retrace past $10k+ within weeks. I also called out how some traditional analyst are against Bitcoin. On June 3rd, I was bullish on it after it had a really drastic drop the day prior. The day prior, Bitcoin dropped more than $800 or 8% at the time in under 5 minutes.

June 9th, was one of the more recent charting dates. That chart also came a bit after I made this stream on a BTC price analysis and expectations. For my June 9th analysis, I talked about ways $BTC can still potentially hit $25k by 2021. This is obviously on the basis of being extra bullish and overly speculative. I also talked about how people are holding, XBT data trackers, ETFs launching, and the need for more institutional investors. That being said, at that time as well as the time of the making of this article, I think $BTC should hit around at least $13.5k+ by the end of 2020. However, even that price is also still quite a stretch. Looking at Bitcoin the past few years and price correlations ranging from $3k+ to $10k+, you can tell something is quite obvious. Bitcoin is very volatile. Its safe haven asset status is still to be disputed, however, this doesn’t change the fact that it is worth investing in. It has long potential, but up until now, there is still alot of uncertainty when doing charting, fundamental, buy side or technical analysis in regards to the price of Bitcoin.

If you are interested in my progress regarding BTC analysis check out here, and also make sure to follow up on my streams.

Please keep in mind, everything I say is on an opinion based basis. This is not meant to be taken seriously or as actionable financial advice. Do your own due diligence and any trades you do is at your own risk. We are not responsible, proceed with caution and we are trying to voice an opinion not meant to warrant action. This is solely meant to be viewed as a non actionable opinion not meant to be taken as seriously or as a form of actionable advice.