THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL Picks and Plays! Chargers vs Raiders
By: Zack Nicol
Tags: Fun, Football, DFS, NFL, Gambling

Thursday, December 17

8:20 PM ET

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS vs LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (-3.5); O/U 52.5

Model Z Projection: 27–24 LAC

Straight Up Pick: Las Vegas Raiders

Spread Pick: LV -3.5⭐

O/U Pick: Over 52.5⭐⭐

Zack’s Plays:

- Tyron Johnson to score (+135)

- Tyron Johnson over 3.5 Receptions (-110)

- Tyron Johnson over 19.5 Longest Reception (-110)

- Darren Waller to score 2x (+500)

- Derek Carr to throw an INT (+122)

- Justin Herbert to NOT throw an INT (+100)

Top DFS Matchups: Austin Ekeler ($7,500), Tyron Johnson ($3,300)!, Hunter Henry ($4,300), Josh Jacobs ($6,500), Darren Waller ($6,900)

Notable Injuries: LAC RT Brian Bulaga, LAC S Nadir Adderley, LAC LB Denzel Perryman, LAC WR Mike Williams, LV DL Clelin Ferrell, LV S Jonathan Abram, LV S Jeff Heath, LV WR Henry Ruggs

Notes: Not the flashiest of Thursday Night Football games but it’s not the worst! The inactive list is pretty full for both teams for this one, so I wouldn’t be surprised at anything. I think the most important inactive is RT Brian Bulaga for the Chargers. He has been pretty underwhelming according to Pro Football Focus at 58th overall among Offensive Tackles this season but he has been one of if not the best lineman on that team over the years. Just the concept of losing your best lineman on a already below-average line for a rookie QB is scary to me.

The more I think about this game, the more unsure I get because here are some takes that go against the other team. The stats say the Raiders have a bad defense. Straight up. They’re 30th in Points Allowed and 25th in Yards allowed, and are specifically bad against the run at 31st in Rush TDs allowed and 25th in Rush Yards allowed. Austin Ekeler game is what that says.

The Model says go with the road underdog here mainly because of their significant advantage in the secondary, but the uncertainty on WR2 Mike Williams status make me super nervous along with all of the other inactives. But after all of this flip flopping for this toss up game, I think I’ve decided that I’ll go with the Raiders (with extremely low confidence) because:

1. They need this game more

2. They’re at home in the roomba

3. The Raiders Oline is significantly better and had a good advantage over the opposing defensive line

For matchups, this goes against my game pick, but most of my DFS and Player Prop matchups favor the Chargers. I like the following:

1. LAC RB Austin Ekeler — He is listed on the injury report but should play. Has a good matchup though as the Raiders are 23rd vRB. Without their WR2 target in play, he could be used in the passing game as well.

2. LAC WRs Keenan Allen and Tyron Johnson— Same as Ekeler, Allen is on the injury report but should play. Even better matchup though as the Raiders are 4th worst against the WR in the model. Unknown WR Tyron Johnson caught my eye last week though with 7 targets and a touchdown. I see more of the same if not more in this matchup with Williams most likely out.

3. LAC TE Hunter Henry — Not as involved as I would think he would have been this year with only 3 TDs on the year, but he is consistently targeted. In a favorable matchup, I could see a good game by the guy with two first names.

4. LV RB Josh Jacobs — The model doesn’t like the matchup, but the stats say go for it. Jacobs (17th on PFF) faces the 21st best team when it comes to rush yards allowed.

5. LV TE Darren Waller — Same as above, a little bit of a reach in the Model Z, but the stats show that the Chargers are 28th in Pass TDs allowed (7th in Pass Yards allowed). Maybe I’m forcing a play here, but Waller should be the #1 target and that stat says touchdowns will be thrown.