How Dangerous Is The Coronaviras ? With WHO Reports
By: Web Master
Tags: Covid 19, Coronavirus Update, Corona, Coronavirus, Covid 19 Treatment

The coronavirus is extremely dangerous, and I suspect that the danger is currently being underplayed by the world medical community to minimize panic as we prepare for the worst.

Here are the statistics at the time I write this (16 Feb 2020); I take them from

cases: 69,290. deaths: 1,671 recovered: 9883

The site states that the “Fatality Rate” is “2%”. But under that number, click “more details”. That will take you to this page:

Coronavirus Mortality Rate (COVID-19)

On that page it shows why the 2% figure could be a gross underestimate. That figure is the ratio of the deaths to cases: 1671/69290 = 0.024 = 2%. But that compares deaths to the number of present cases; it takes a while to die. Even if the virus spread no more, people would continue to die. So a better estimate might be deaths / (deaths + recovered). If you calculate that, you get 1671 / (1671 + 9883) = 0.1446 = 14%. That is a very high number, higher than the 10% death rate recorded for the SARS virus in 2002–3. (See

Severe acute respiratory syndrome - Wikipedia

Thus, once the termination of the illness is resolved (i.e. recovered or died), the estimate is that 14% have died. This too is uncertain, since recovery might take longer than death.

There is evidence, however, that when the numbers are relatively small, and good health care available, that the death rate can be kept low. The rate in different provinces of China is give at the web page:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.c...

It is possible, based on these numbers, that the high death toll in Hubei (Wuhan) is a result of poor medical treatment available in the midst of the surge of patients. In the other providences, with the lower number of cases, the medical system is not overwhelmed, and the chance of death is much smaller. The death rates (deaths / deaths + recovered) for several provinces are these: Hubei (with Wuhan): 21%. Henan: 3% Heilongjiang: 12%. Anhui: 2.2%. Changing: 2.6%

In the 2002–3 SARS epidemic, with its 10% world-wide death toll, none of the 27 US victims died. (See

Severe acute respiratory syndrome - Wikipedia

Of course, a similar problem could easily arise in any country; we do not normally keep a high surplus of hospital facilities even in the US. With a very large outbreak in the US, our medical facilities could also be overwhelmed.

This is one of the ways in which delay of then epidemic is important. I suspect hospitals around the US are already preparing for the possible US outbreak. And I note there are already startup companies specializing in selling virus surpassing N95 masks.

(Incidentally: the face mask servers two important functions: it filters air that you are breathing, and it also stops you from having your hand touch your mouth. I have long suspected that it is the latter function that is the most important one in preventing spread of disease.)

The other feature that makes this a scary disease is the long period when you can spread the disease without showing symptoms. That’s why it spread so far on the Diamond Princess cruise. Today’s estimate is that about 10% of the passengers have been infected, originally from one person. The quarantine is supposed to end in a few days, but I expect the Japanese to extend it out of concern that just a few people still infected can ignite an epidemic in a city. To read about the deadly effect of “carriers” I recommend the story of “Typhoid Mary”; see the Wikipedia page: