Mexico’s 2021 Mid-Term Elections: Explained.
By: Evaristo Derby
Tags: Mexico Election, Morena, Mexico, Amlo, Democracy

Evelyn Salgado, MORENA’s candidate in Guerrero.

On Sunday, June 6th, Mexicans headed to the polls. This was a critical mid-term election in Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s (hereinafter as AMLO) term, which defined whether or not MORENA (the leading alt-left party) could possibly make drastic changes to Mexico. AMLO and top Mexican officials have repeatedly mentioned the idea of eradicating the INE (National Electoral Institute) and modifying the constitution to enable AMLO a second term. Those dreams crashed on Sunday.

Mexicans across a number of states defended democracy. For Mexico’s Lower Chamber, the House of Representatives, MORENA lost its 50% majority, falling to 47%. Nevertheless, Morena regains that full majority by the means of alliances with other political parties who believe in the Fourth Transformation (known as the“4T”). The 4T has socialist ideas which they wish to impose on all Mexican states. Previous to Sunday’s election, MORENA and its allies (4T) had 332 seats, and the opposition had 168. After the mid-term, MORENA and its allies are poised to only have 281, compared to the opposition’s 219. For a constitutional reform, 70% of the members of Congress would need to approve; with the mid-term results, that dream is long gone. MORENA and AMLO lost ground in the mid-terms. As a whole, Sunday’s mid-term saw amongst the largest turn-outs in Mexican mid-term history. Although MORENA lost ground when it came to the Congress, political analysts believe they did not have a negative election nor a positive election.

When it came to gubernatorial races, MORENA had a landslide. As a whole, 15 states were up for grabs, from which pro-4T parties won 12, and MORENA won 11 (San Luis Potosí was won by a pro-4T candidate, not in an alliance with MORENA). MORENA won in critical states such as Michoacán, Guerrero, Zacatecas, Sonora, amongst others. Of all states, only Nuevo León, Querétaro, and Chihuahua elected a non-4T governor. Andrés Manuel López Obrador stated he was “happy, happy, and very happy” with the election results, although the reality depicts otherwise.

The map to the left displays the governorships before the election, whilst the right displays the future governorships. Pro-4T are the darker shades. At the moment, the gray shades were too close to call, but MORENA has also won in those two states.

In addition, Mexico’s mid-term election did come at a cost of life. Since campaigning begun, a number of political candidates were assassinated. Since September, the electoral process has seen the murder of at least 91 political — 36 of them being aspiring candidates. Karina Aguilar, columnist for the daily newspaper 24 Horas, “the polarization that exists in the country is tremendous. It is the side for López Obrador and the side against López Obrador — and neither accepts half measures.” Mexico is amidst a political crisis. In other words, MORENA won in gubernatorial states, but its true power in Mexico City decreased. Mexico’s next major election will be seen in 2023 when certain governorships such as Estado De México will be up for grabs. Follow ’23, Mexico’s federal elections will take place in 2024.

Both sides have called this election success, and in its ways, it was a success for both. MORENA, on one hand, extended its influence in a number of states, whilst the opposition decreased MORENA’s power in congress. Nevertheless, MORENA still holds the majority in congress, MORENA is still the largest Mexican party, and MORENA will now control over half of the governorships in Mexico. It is a large leap for saving Mexico’s democracy against the incompetent and idiotic 4T president Andrés Manuel, but there is still work to be done, primarily in not enabling a change in the constitution, limiting AMLO’s influence, and winning back the presidency in 2024.

For now, Mexico can rest easy knowing that democracy won, at a federal level.