NFL Week 15 Picks Against the Spread Welcome to Caesar’s ATS Picks!
By: Caesar Wilson
Tags: NFL, Football Analytics, Football, Sports Betting, NFL Picks

NFL Week 15 Picks Against the Spread

Welcome to Caesar’s ATS Picks! This will be a weekly project where I pick every game from the NFL schedule. I will offer my quick thoughts, some stats, and predictions for each game. I will give a final score for each game as well as a confidence scale. My confidence scale is based not on the game’s winner but also on ESPN’s spread. The scale ranges from low to medium to high confidence. Now, it is time to dive into this week’s slate of games.

Overall: 101–75–5

Last week: 8–7

High Confidence: 22–21–3

Medium Confidence: 49–34–2

Low Confidence: 29–21



Game of the Week: Kansas City Chiefs 12–1 vs. New Orleans Saints 10–3 (+3) 4:25 EST



This game is being hyped up as a super bowl preview between these two top tier teams in their respective conferences. The Saints are expected to get QB Drew Brees back after missing the last four games. While he was gone, the Saints defense turned a corner and became one of the better football units. The Saints have the 2nd ranked defense in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) thanks to the pass rush led by DE Cameron Jordan. DB’s Malcolm Jenkins and Marshon Lattimore have played a crucial part as well. Can this defense slow down the Chiefs, however? That won’t be answered right now, but the odds may not be in their favor. The Dolphins defense that has been vaunted all season long gave up 30 by the early 3rd quarter last week. The Saints gave up over 100 rushing yards to Miles Sanders, and Jalen Hurts last week after going 56 consecutive games without a 100-yard rusher. The Chiefs are a pass-first unit, while the Saints were the number one run defense before last week, so that should be an outlier. Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill is third in receiving yards among receivers, while TE Travis Kelce is first in yards among Tight Ends by a wide margin. He’s 128 yards away from breaking the record for tight end receiving yards set by George Kittle.



Everyone feels that this is the week the Chiefs lose to a contender. I don’t believe that is the case. The Saints don’t have the vertical passing attack that’s needed to exploit the Chiefs’ weaknesses. The Saints struggled earlier in the year against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, who have a similar gameplan. I’m taking the Chiefs in this one.



Chiefs –3/ Medium Confidence



Saturday Night Football PT.1: Buffalo Bills 10–3 vs. Denver Broncos 5–8 (+5.5) 4:30 EST



The Bills are coming off their biggest win of the season against the Steelers but will now look to avoid a trap game against a Broncos team coming off a couple of solid performances. QB Drew Lock threw for four touchdowns last week in his best performance this season but will face a Bills defense with Tre’Davious White, Levi Wallace, and Micah Hyde in the secondary. They did a solid job on the deep Steelers receiving core last week. Will the Broncos be able to contain WR Stefon Diggs, however? As Diggs was the first bill receiver to catch 100 passes in a season in team history, I wouldn’t count on it. His connection with Josh Allen has made the Bills’ offense one of the best in the AFC.



The Bills defense has only gotten better over the season. I trust them to get five and a half points against the Broncos here.



Bills –5.5/ Medium Confidence



Saturday Night Football PT. 2: Carolina Panthers 4–9 vs. Green Bay Packers 10–3 (-8) 8:15 EST



The Packers were in first place in the NFC, thanks to helping from the Eagles last week. The number one ranked offense in DVOA has Aaron Rodgers with 39 touchdowns passes, most in the league. Devante Adams is the top option but targets Robert Tonyan, Allen Lazard, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling have been solid at their roles. The Pathers have some weapons of their own, with DJ Moore returning this week with Curtis Samuel and Robby Anderson in the fold. RB Mike Davis ran for two touchdowns last week and will be a part of the offense again versus a weak Packers run defense.



The Panthers’ offense has been average throughout the season, but I think they can pull something out and cover here against the Packers.



Panthers +8/ Low Confidence



Other Notable Games



Seattle Seahawks 9–4 vs. Washington 6–7 (+6.5) 1:00 EST



QB Alex Smith and RB Antonio Gibson are out for Washington this week. Dwayne Haskins will fill in at QB after getting benched early in the season. He will need to go through progressions if he wants to improve his standing. WR Terry McLaurin has slowed down over the last few weeks and could return to form with Haskins back. The key will be the pass rush in this game. The Seahawks have 24 team sacks since week nine, the most in the NFL. Washington is 4th in adjusted sack rate in DVOA, thanks in part to Edge Rusher Chase Young, who has turned the pressure up over the last month. Both teams are in the bottom third in sacks allowed, which could get ugly for both parties.



The Seahawks cruised in a win last week, but the Jets aren’t like the rest of the league. Washington plays a tough game, and Haskins has a week to prepare for the Hawks defense. I’ll take Washington to cover.



Washington +6.5/ High Confidence



New England Patriots 6–7 vs. Miami Dolphins 8–5 (-3) 1:00 EST



The Patriots are on the verge of missing the playoffs for the first time since 2008. The poor play of QB Cam Newton killed any momentum the offense could’ve had.10 interceptions to only 5 passing touchdowns won’t help this team win out. They have eight days to prepare for a rookie QB, which is in Bill Belichick’s wheelhouse. Dolphins HC Brian Flores has worked with Belichick for seven years before getting the Dolphins job. He can help Tua understand the Belichick gameplan. However, the injuries are piling up in Miami, as TE Mike Gesicki, WR Devante Parker, and WR Jakeem Grant are banged up. The defense will have to help them out, as they have garnered at least one turnover in 19 consecutive games dating back to last season.



Everyone will like the Patriots here because of the rookie QB, but I think the Dolphins are a team that knows how to gameplan for any opponent, and they will seek revenge from the week 1 loss to show that they are a different team this time around.



Dolphins –3/ Medium Confidence



Chicago Bears 6–7 vs. Minnesota Vikings 6–7 (-3) 1:00 EST



This, in theory, is the biggest game of the week. The loser of this one will be all but eliminated from Playoff Contention. It’s a tale of two halves for these teams, as the Bears started 5–1 while the Vikings started 1–5. Both teams are here at 6–7 after the Vikings gained a rhythm offensively, while the Bears offense stagnated. However, the offense has been good for the last two weeks as RB David Montgomery had over 70 rushing yards in each of his last two contests. IDL Akeem Hicks was missing from the last contest against the Vikings and will make it much tougher for Viking RB Dalvin Cook this time.



I can’t pick the Bears at all. I’m going to pick them here, but I expect to be wrong at this point.



Bears +3/ Low Confidence



Sunday Night Football: Cleveland Browns 9–4 vs. New York Giants 5–8 (+6.5) 8:20 EST



The Browns lost in a shootout to the Ravens on Monday Night. That game showed how QB Baker Mayfield has returned to future star status after the last year and a half of turmoil. The back seven of Cleveland’s defense sees CB Denzel Ward returning this week. The opposite effect for the Giants as CB James Bradburry is out this week on the reserve list. QB Daniel Jones is out as well, putting Colt McCoy back out there for the G-Men. His one start saw the Giants play clean football as they beat the Seahawks. The Browns offensive line is an improvement from Seattle, and the rushing attack should also result in a less aggressive Giants front seven.



The Giants are a well-prepared team and should stay competitive against the Browns coming off an emotional game. The Giants are my pick to cover.



Giants +6.5/ Medium Confidence



Trap Games



Detroit Lions 5–8 vs. Tennesee Titans 9–4 (-11) 1:00 EST



RB Derrick Henry is at his strongest in December. He just came off a 215-yard performance and is eight yards away from exceeding his 1,540 rushing yards from 2019. The Lions have the 26th run defense in DVOA and will struggle again this week. QB Matt Stafford is a late addition to the active roster after seeing if he would be out again with a rib injury. Chase Daniel filled in nicely, but we know that Stafford is the guy that makes this Lion’s offense competent long-term. He will miss WR Kenny Golliday again as Golliday has been out for quite some time now. Lions center Frank Ragnow fractured his throat last week (still finished the game) and will be out this week. The depletion of this offense is alarming.



Eleven points is always a lot to ask for, but the Titans are focused right now on winning the AFC South, and the new coach smell of Detroit should wear off now as the season winds down for them. Please give me the Titans.



Titans –11/ Low Confidence



Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8–5 vs. Atlanta Falcons 4–9 (+6.5) 1:00 EST



The Falcons won the choke bowl with the Chargers last week and increased their draft position. The constant injuries of Julio Jones and regression of Matt Ryan has this team tied up in no man’s land with three weeks left. The Bucs didn’t look great last week as Kicker Dan Bailey helped them out, but they should revise some things on offense. RB Leonard Fournette will have an increased role in the offense with RB Ronald Jones out this week. Despite some of the hiccups on offense, Tampa is still 5th in offense from DVOA, and they have the talent with the offensive line to hold Tom Brady up.



This should be easy for the Bucs. The defense should constantly get after Matt Ryan, and no, Julio Jones will make the offense stall out more often than not. Bucs cover.



Buccaneers –6.5/ High Confidence



Houston Texans 4–9 vs. Indianapolis Colts 9–4 (-7) 1:00 EST



The Texans were manhandled last week against the Bears as the whole team was flat. QB Deshaun Watson has gone down 39 times, third-most in the NFL. The Colts got back there five times in the first matchup, with veteran Justin Houston getting three of them. The Texans will have WR Brandin COoks back after sitting out last week but will lose both David and Duke Johnson this week. Speaking of running backs, the Colts have RB Jonathan Taylor turning it up over the last month, including a 150-yard performance last week against the Raiders. The Texans allow 152 rushing yards a game so that Taylor can have a monster game this week.



The Colts should win this, but Houston was very close in the first meeting, and seven points aren’t out of the realm for a Deshaun Watson led team. I’ll take Houston reluctantly.



Texans +7/ Low Confidence



Philadelphia Eagles 4–8–1 vs. Arizona Cardinals 7–6 (-6.5) 4:05 EST



The Eagles got the upset win over the Saints thanks to the new-found read option with QB Jalen Hurts. RB Miles Sanders was finally set free with the new offense and could impact many expected from him as we advance. The Cardinals beat the Giants after losing three in a row prior. QB Kyler Murray ran 13 times last week after a conservative gameplan from Kliff Kingsbury the three weeks prior. RB Kenyan Drake has improved as well over the last month. The Cardinals’ defense hasn’t been lights out, but Haason Riddick has been a bright spot this season. His five sacks last week bumped his total up to 10. If he can get some momentum and finish the season out strong, the Cardinals’ defense can help them push for the final playoff spot.



The Eagles were rejuvenated from last weeks showing and should play hard this week. I’ll take them to cover.



Eagles +6.5/ Medium Confidence



The Rest



San Fransisco 49ers 5–8 vs. Dallas Cowboys 4–9 (+3) (49ers -3/ High)

Jacksonville Jaguars 1–12 vs. Baltimore Ravens 8–5 (-13) (Jaguars +13/Low)

New York Jets 0–13 vs. Los Angeles Rams 9–4 (-17) (Rams –17/Low COnfidence)

Monday Night: Pittsburgh Steelers 11–2 vs. Cincinnati Bengals 2–10–1 (+13) (Steelers –13/ Low Confidence)