India Should Readapt to Power Shifts
Tags: Diplomacy, International Relations, Indian Security

Unipolar. Bipolar, Tripolar or a multipolar world: Diplomacy and Power are tools to achieve national strategic ends.

A unipolar world would simplify dealings in certain areas. Time and efforts at balancing between powers would be reduced to a great extent. However, transition between a multipolar to unipolar and changing power equations throw up issues that need to be addressed continuously.

Break up of USSR allowed USA to be single dominant power for 3 decades.

“ the collapse of the Soviet Union made old foreign policy certainties invalid. Politically, India had to come to terms with the foreign policy certainties invalid. Politically, India had to come to terms with the new U.S.” ( Choices ………Shiv Shankar Menon)

Collapse of USSR, and the separation of Warsaw Pact countries on whom India was mainly dependent for military systems required a great deal of resetting. Indian dealings with Russia today have also undergone changes at various levels.

A unipolar world did not mean the absence of having to deal with neighbouring countries, or those with whom there are trade and commerce. Other countries also reset their relationship accordingly.

Expansionist China. Rising Power

Along with the current major power and a rising one, and India will need to take into account the new international ambience that is likely to prevail in the future.

China ‘s Aggressive Power Projection

Communist China under XI Jinping is working hard to become a dominant power, challenging the unipolar status held by USA over the last three decades.

China’s efforts to extend its hegemony, backed by its economic clout and military power have to be addressed. The aggressive nature of China’s moves on the Indian borders, attempts to dominate the maritime sea lanes in in the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean have to be taken into account. They need to be faced squarely.

China will have ten aircraft carriers by 2030 and a hundred submarines. It has the largest army in the world. It has deployed more than three army divisions on the Tibetan borders against India.

It is encircling India under the guise of OBOR and leading countries into debt traps in the name of projects.

It refuses to abide by international norms on sea lanes and Maritime Zones.

China is prodding North Korea, and encouraging its aggressive posturing agaist Japan.

China Pakistan Military Cooperation

China is backing Pakistani army in its attempt to destabilise J&K.

India’s South East Asian neighbours are all under stress, with having to cope up with a China that wishes to dominate them through trade and military power.

Indian Options

Indian diplomats will need to work overtime with South East Asian countries, littoral states in the Indian Ocean and assure them of Indian support and assuage their fears on security.

Alliances, understandings, treaties as with Quad, Middle East nations, ASEAN will need to be worked out fresh. There is an urgent need to ensure mutual understanding and cooperation among the major ministries of Defence, Finance Home and Foreign affairs.

Diplomacy works only when assurances are backed by power. Economic clout, capacity for military power projection and consistency in foreign policy are absolutely necessary for success in the diplomatic arena.

India has made bold forein policy choices earlier and benefited greatly, as with Indira Gandhi on Bangladesh in 1971, or Manmohan Singh in the 2013 nuclear deal.

India’s strategic outlook under Prime Minister Modi has changed the way India reacts to world events. Under Modi India will be proactive where its security interests are concerned.

Indian diplomatic corps and the Services are coming together, reworking the strategic options. India’s future is on the ascendent, and with additional intensive efforts in the coming months, it will be sooner than later.