NFL Week 15 Betting Preview
By: Blakey Locks
Tags: NFL, Gambling, Sports Betting, Sports

NFL Week 15 Betting Preview

*extremely Jim Nantz voice* Hello, friends. I am Blakey Locks and I will be your guide this Fall. Every weekend, I am going to lead you as we traverse through the trials and tribulations of betting your mortgage on a weekend of football. From the New England Patriots to the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks, I will give you the knowledge necessary to conquer your bookie and feed your children. We will win together, lose together, and laugh together. Let’s ride.

This week I wrote up all my CFB bets on Twitter so there’s no need to do an article as well. If you want my CFB bets they are in the thread below:

This week I am going to write up my NFL bets instead, so without further ado, let’s get into the games.

NFL YTD Record: 73–56–4 (56.59%) +23.99u

Bills @ Broncos (+6) o/u 49

This is a major let down spot for the Bills. They have won back-to-back big primetime games and are on a short week for the second week in a row. They have to travel out to Denver and play in the elevation against a really tough defense in a game where they don’t have a ton of motivation and will be emotionally let down. Yes, they can lock up the division but the division is all but locked up and in terms of seeding they don’t have a ton to play for. I’m by no means a Drew Lock believer but he is playing pretty decent right now and so is the rest of his offense. In Lock’s last three starts, they beat Miami outright, covered against the Chiefs in KC, and beat the Panthers outright on the road. Jeudy, Patrick, and Hamler have been playing really well and the Broncos should be able to run the ball effectively. On the other hand, the Bills have been struggling to run the ball recently and that’s the Broncos' weakness on defense. They are great against the pass and should limit the hot Josh Allen.

Panthers +8.5 @ Packers o/u 51.5

Teddy as a road dog! We are back! Rodgers has historically been great as a home favorite but if you take away his last two games against inept offenses (Bears and Wentz-led Eagles), the Packers lost to the Vikings outright, almost lost to the Jags and did not cover the two home games before that so they are by no means invincible at home. Meanwhile, the Teddy trends remain strong:

Overall ATS: 33–13 (71.1%)

As a Dog: 23–6 (79.3%)

When an underdog over 3 points: 13–3 ATS (81.3%)

The Teddy trends have stayed true to form in Carolina. They are 0–3 ATS as a favorite this year but 6–3 ATS as an underdog. Despite CMC being out, Mike Davis should be able to run the ball effectively and the Panthers front-7 has some dudes who could make the big play needed to stay inside the number. I also like the motivation spot for Carolina despite being a team out of playoff contention.

They have a first-year head coach looking to prove himself and a first-year OC who is auditioning for NFL and CFB head coaching jobs. Plus, they have a ton of young guys looking to prove themselves for next year so they should keep playing hard and trying to win. Meanwhile, the Packers have to feel really good about securing the 1-seed so they could be a little slow.

49ers (-3) @ Cowboys o/u 45

I’m buying low on the Niners here and most definitely selling Andy Dalton high. Two weeks ago I told everyone and their mother that the 49ers would beat the Rams outright and they did just that. Then the next week everyone said “wow the 49ers are good let’s bet them this week” and I said “no, bet the Bills now” and the Bills dominated. Then the 49ers lost again last week to the WFT which honestly wasn’t a shocking upset to me and the Cowboys blew out the Bengals who I consider Jets-level at this point. The Cowboys don’t have enough on offense against this 49ers defense and the Cowboys are the dead last worst team in the NFL against the run which is exactly what San Fran wants to do. Mostert (if healthy) and Jeff Wilson should run all over them, control the game, and set up Mullens to succeed.

SEA/PIT/TEN ML Parlay (-108)

This is basically me just wanting to get the Seattle ML down to a good price. I’m selling high on Washington especially if Dwayne Haskins is playing QB. Alex Smith has made this WFT offense top-10 in the league the past few weeks doing what we saw him do in KC, which is being an elite game manager. Haskins has been one of the worst-rated QBs in the league by every metric when he has played and Antonio Gibson is looking like he’ll also miss the game Sunday. Even if Smith and Gibson play I love how the Seahawks defense is playing right now so I still like this spot. But without them, it should be a breeze. The WFT defense is really good but the Seahawks OL is playing well and Russell Wilson is still Russell Wilson. He should be able to get the ball to his playmakers and score enough points that WFT can’t keep up.

Derrick Henry is in beast mode right now and should run all over this Lions defense. Matt Stafford might not go and even if he does, he will be banged up and has played poorly this year when not 100% healthy. Lions are one of my dead teams as of this week. Meanwhile, the Steelers have lost two in a row so they should take advantage of this get-right spot against Cincy. I usually hate these large road favorite spots for Tomlin teams which is why I wouldn’t lay the points, but the Bengals are such an awful team, they have no life. The Steelers will win the game.

DISCLAIMER: I bet the Browns -4 earlier in the week but because of the Jones and Bradberry news the line has shifted to -6.5 and I would hold off betting it at that number. I also bet a Chargers/Bears teaser and if you missed that with the Chargers Thursday night then I would recommend a Browns -0.5/Bears +9 teaser to get in on those two teams.

Teasers

IND -1/NE +8.5- The Texans are dead. Deshaun Watson has publicly expressed his frustration and their offensive weapons have dwindled down to nothing. The Colts are playing really well on both sides of the ball and Jon Taylor just had a breakout game with the horrific Texans run defense on the horizon. Indy should control this game from the start.

Rookie QBs are 0–11 SU against Belichick in his last 11 times facing them. Belichick off a double-digit loss is 19–5 ATS. The Pats also have extra rest and if you see any New England ATS in Miami trends… throw those away. Brady famously hated playing in the humid Miami weather. It had nothing to do with the actual matchup. Cam Newton has spent most of his life in warm weather climates so it doesn’t bother him. The Patriots will be able to run the ball and their improving secondary with Belichick’s extra time could easily lead to an outright win. This is also a revenge spot after Miami beat the Pats in Week 17 last year to knock them out of a bye in the playoffs, so now the Pats could really hurt Miami’s playoff chances.

TB PK/ARI PK- The Bucs are playing pretty good football right now and they go to a Falcons team that is playing bad football. The Falcons have been pretty good defensively but without Julio Jones, this offense looks awful. Matt Ryan has played really poorly without Julio the last couple of weeks and has been significantly worse all season without him. That makes Ridley the top target for Ryan and he could have a tough week against Carlton Davis. Davis has been elite all season (except against Tyreek Hill) and even balled out last week against Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. Davis was only targeted four times and allowed five (5) total yards between the two receivers. The Bucs win this game.

The cap here is a sell-high on the Eagles, as well as the fact that the Eagles have no secondary right now. Everyone is high on Hurts after last week but I think that Eagles’ performance was similar to a post-HC getting fired game (a spot we’ve seen go 3–0 ATS this season) with Carson Wentz getting benched. The team was so happy to see him gone that everyone played better but as we’ve seen since with the Texans, Lions, and Falcons, those teams regress back to their norm.

I am still not a Hurts believer and now with tape, I think a really good DC like Vance Joseph will be able to game-plan for Hurts. As I said, the Eagles’ entire secondary is hurt and even if Darius Slay clears concussion protocol and plays, DeAndre Hopkins has been the outlier against elite shadow corners (and I don’t even consider Slay elite) so he should still dominate either way. Cards win a big one for them at home.

So to refresh, my card is:

CAR +8.5, SF -3, Browns -4, LAC +9/CHI +9, IND -1/NE +8.5, TB PK/ARI PK, and SEA/PIT/TEN ML parlay. And again, if you missed LAC and the Browns, make it a CLE/CHI teaser instead. If you have any other questions about any of the other games, or the games I did bet, you can always ask me on Twitter @BlakeyLocks! Let’s have a big weekend!