Announcing AltSignals.AI [Beta]
Tags: Investment, Sentiment Analysis, Web Traffic, Alternative Data, Google Trends

Market Consensus vs Altsignals Prediction

Overview

The Altsingals.AI alternative data platform provides investment signals in the following key categories:

Web traffic — signal based on number of visitors to company web site to estimate company sales for a given period (eg quarter)

— signal based on number of visitors to company web site to estimate company sales for a given period (eg quarter) Twitter — this signal displays a heat map of social sentiment trends on the entire market showing which companies are trending up or down. You can drill down here on the particular tickers and associated tweets in a single dashboard aggregated view

— this signal displays a heat map of social sentiment trends on the entire market showing which companies are trending up or down. You can drill down here on the particular tickers and associated tweets in a single dashboard aggregated view Google trends — similar to Web traffic, this screen helps investors to predict expected company sales (and subsequently price performance)

— similar to Web traffic, this screen helps investors to predict expected company sales (and subsequently price performance) News sentiment — similar to Twitter sentiment, this view provides an overview of the best and worst performers news sentiment performers past week, as well as an associated heat map

Web Traffic

After logging, you will arrive on the Web Traffic dashboard tab. The tab will default to a list of popular companies and there are a number of charts on the dashboard which we cover below in detail.

Correlation of Web Traffic vs Actual Sales

The key hypothesis of our methodology is that signals based on alternative data such as Web Traffic or Google Trends are correlated with the actual realised company sales for certain companies that sell online such as e-commerce companies.

In the graph below, for Tripadvisor Inc (NASDAQ:TRIP), this is clearly the case — for each quarter where we have higher web traffic (x-axis), we also have higher realised sales (y-axis).

Web Traffic vs Actual Historical Sales

The first action is to search for your favourite companies their name or ticker, and add them to your watch list as show

Web Traffic — Actual Company Sales vs Market Consensus vs Altsignals Prediction

You can view how accurate the analyst estimates perform vs Altsignals prediction relative to the actual sales. In the chart below, actual quarterly sales are shown in light blue, analyst estimates in violet and Altsignals predictions in orange.

Actuals vs Predictions — Absolute Levels

The same information can be viewed in relative terms. For instance, the figure below in the last quarter, the violet bar indicates that analysts underestimates the sales by 5% while Altsignals estimate differed. In this case, if the price moved up on earnings announcement day, the investors would benefit from following the Altsignals estimate.

Actuals vs Predictions — Relative Levels

Finally, we also provide our users with a standard historical price action chart.

Historical Price Action

Google Trends

Google trends is similar to Web Traffic but provides and alternative view and more historical data for most company. Savvy investors will also try to combine both

Google Trends — Actual Company Sales vs Market Consensus vs Altsignals Prediction — Absolute Levels

Google Trends — Actual Company Sales vs Market Consensus vs Altsignals Prediction — Relative Levels

News

News Top Movers

News — Best Movers

News — Worst Movers

News — Worst Movers

News — Market Sentiment Map

News — Market Sentiment Map

Additional Features

There are a number of other useful features such as upcoming earnings announcements for a given week.

Upcoming Earnings Announcements for the Week