Joe Biden’s Top 5 VP Choices — An Extended Discussion
By: William Walter Harris Iii
Tags: Elections, Amy Klobuchar, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Politics

Joe Biden — having secured ‘presumptive nominee’ status far earlier than anyone expected — is off to a swift start in a search for his number two. In the coming days, Biden is poised to announce members of his VP selection committee (May 1st), which will provide more insight into one of the biggest decisions a nominee can make.

Biden’s age is what makes this VP decision all the more intriguing. Biden would be, by far, the oldest president ever elected. To quell worries, Biden has moved to select a VP before the nominating convention in August. Furthermore, Biden committed to selecting a woman in a noteworthy exchange during a March 15th debate with Bernie Sanders. But with so many talented women in the Democratic Party, who will he choose? Let’s identify some key criteria.

Biden’s benchmarks for VP:

Competence (ability to assume the presidency on day one)

Age and diversity (balancing the ticket)

Ideological congruence (agreement on policy)

Electoral advantage (helpfulness in an Electoral College strategy)

Clues into Biden’s Geographical Electoral Strategy

(Graphic generated though 270 to Win)

Midwestern Strategy (Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa)

(Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa) Sun Belt Strategy (Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona)

(Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona) Rust Belt Strategy (Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Ohio)

Top 2 Likely VP Choices

1. U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar, Minnesota

Photo Credit: Portrait in Washington, Courtesy of CNN

Klobuchar, a rising star in the Democratic Party, exceeded expectations early on in the 2020 nominating contests. Beginning the campaign as a relatively unknown senator, Klobuchar gained momentum — Klomentum — in Iowa (cementing a solid double-digit finish) and coming in a surprise third in New Hampshire with close to 20% of the vote (just 6% shy of the winner, Bernie Sanders).

I rate Klobuchar as Biden’s most likely VP pick because of her ability to run a low-budget campaign that outlasted other more well-known contenders, such as Kamala Harris, Beto O’Rourke, and Cory Booker. In addition, Klobuchar is an experienced senator of 12 years, easily passing the presidential readiness test. Klobuchar’s ability to deliver an impeccable debate performance under great pressure paid off in droves, a much-coveted skill in politics.

Klobuchar has a very direct style of politicking; it can come off as cold or dry to some political observers, often causing her to be underestimated. Klobuchar’s endorsement of Biden before Super Tuesday was pivotal to his victory in Minnesota — a state Hillary Clinton narrowly edged Trump by less than 2% in 2016. Klobuchar’s political advantage in her home state outrivals that of Elizabeth Warren and Harris. The endorsement was also an acknowledgment that timing is everything in politics, sometimes worth more than money.

Klobuchar’s selection would be a strong nod to a Midwestern strategy, focusing on winning back Wisconsin, Iowa, and holding Minnesota in the Electoral College. Klobuchar’s charm and Midwestern style would certainly be an advantage in key senate races such as Montana and Iowa, where a flip in either would significantly increase the chances of returning the Senate to Democratic control.

Other advantages: Discipline; Klobuchar was unflappable in media interviews. In direct contrast to Warren, Klobuchar rarely engaged in changing policy details throughout the race. Perhaps her style of campaigning would nicely compliment a more tactile politician like Biden.

Klobuchar’s family campaigned for her during the impeachment trial. Most effective was her daughter’s ability to connect with voters and showcase the importance of family values — a missing component in many of the 2020 campaigns. It’s also worth pointing out that Klobuchar’s husband was admitted to the hospital with coronavirus symptoms, a personal first-hand account of the pandemic could be a powerful tool on the campaign trail.

Cons: There’s no certainty of an advantage in Wisconsin by choosing Klobuchar -arguably the most important state this year in the Electoral College. Could Klobuchar’s policies be seen as too conservative by other facets of the party? Biden’s promise to the party is that he wants to be the “bridge to the next generation of leadership.” Does Klobuchar fit on that bridge? These are just some of many questions that will be addressed on the VP selection committee. Dare I bring up the alleged staff mistreatment? In light of recent events, that’s relatively small potatoes in the grand scheme of things.

2. U.S. Senator Kamala Harris, California

Photo Credit: Celeste Sloman/Redux

Although Harris dropped out of the 2020 presidential primary before the early contests, she was considered a formidable frontrunner at the start and a fundraising juggernaut. Again, timing in politics is everything. By dropping out months early, Harris was able to wind down her campaign without either going into debt or losing a contest. In hindsight, this was a smart decision.

Harris has a significant national profile and polls well as a potential VP candidate, especially in key battleground states such as Ohio (Harris polls second highest among Ohio voters for VP, first is Warren). Harris relies heavily on imagery for her advocacy. You can see this in Harris’ debate performances, i.e. “Americans don’t want to see a food fight, they want to see food on their table,” school bussing row, Wizard of Oz reference, etc. As a prolific fundraiser, Harris’ campaign rarely let any opportunity to monetize a moment go to waste, even selling t-shirts online with quotes the candidate delivered barely moments earlier.

I rate Harris as the second most likely to be Biden’s VP simply because of her fundraising abilities and considerable national profile. Yes, she brings historic diversity to the ticket, but one of Biden’s biggest challenges is raising enough money to run a successful campaign. Biden was noticeably out-fundraised by other candidates throughout the race. Considering how difficult fundraising will be in the shadow of a pandemic, a well-connected senator from California could be just the antidote.

Other advantages: Harris is a good storyteller; her ability to weave together experiences from her past to fit a policy challenge is why she has broad appeal. Harris gets along with Biden, despite their debate confrontation. Over the past few days, Harris has periodically appeared in Biden’s virtual townhalls. Although not widely seen as competitive, Harris could help nationalize South Carolina and Kentucky’s hotly contested senate races. In addition, selecting Harris could help relax some African American angst by ensuring Biden’s commitment to assemble a diverse cabinet.

Cons: There’s no clear geographical advantage gained with choosing Harris, California is a state Democrats take for granted. Also, Harris’ segregationist attack on Biden during the debates may prove to be too distracting in the campaign. There remain questions about Harris’ Medicare For All plan and whether she would fully support Biden’s healthcare initiatives. Would Harris be too high profile to be Biden’s number two? Perhaps that would need to be the tradeoff Biden needs to make.

Less Likely VP Choices

3. Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham, New Mexico

Photo Credit: Anthony Jackson/NMID

Lujan Grisham, the first Democratic Latina governor, is relatively unknown nationally, but her deep political roots in the Southwest could make for an interesting choice. Lujan Grisham was appointed as Secretary of Health of New Mexico by Bill Richardson, elected as a county commissioner, served three terms in Congress starting in 2012, and was elected governor in 2018. The Lujan family is a political dynasty in New Mexico, Lujan Grisham’s grandfather and uncle both served in higher office.

Last year, Lujan Grisham championed a plan to make public universities tuition free for state residents. What could make Lujan Grisham an attractive choice to Biden is her ability to make Democratic principals palatable to newer Democratic voters, especially in the Southwest. After all, Clinton won New Mexico in 2016 by a meager 8% over Trump, just short of a majority. In comparison, Lujan Grisham won her gubernatorial race by double-digits, well over a majority.

Lujan Grisham is a relatable and charming politician. Her positive and uplifting speaking style would be of much benefit to the Biden campaign. Her experience in healthcare and immigration policy as a border state governor would put her near the top of any Democrat’s VP list.

Other advantages: Lujan Grisham could be an effective champion in outreach to Hispanic voters, which would be paramount in flipping Arizona and Florida, also in Colorado’s senate race. Lujan Grisham could make inroads with suburban women voters in key midwestern swing states as well.

Cons: It’s risky choosing a relatively unknown governor from a small state, i.e. Sarah Palin. Families in political dynasties are notorious for having dirty laundry. Also, Lujan Grisham has only been governor for a little over a year. VP’s such as Gore, Biden and Pence were reelected statewide. But then again, Biden has more latitude when it comes to balancing his ticket with experience.

4. U.S. Senator Tammy Duckworth, Illinois

Photo Credit: Brian Cassella/Chicago Tribune

There’s little doubt Duckworth would be an “outside the box” type choice, signaling a more aggressive Biden. Duckworth is a tough fighter, who is politically savvy. Duckworth has what so many Democrats lacked in the 2020 presidential field: Grit. A double amputee combat veteran from the Iraq War, Duckworth’s service to country is nothing short of high praise and respect.

Duckworth was born in Thailand to a U.S. Army veteran and a Thai/Chinese mother. She is fluent in Thai and Indonesian. Duckworth could provide Biden with an advantage in a state like Arizona, where veterans are highly regarded in politics. Also, putting Duckworth at the top of the ticket would be celebrated as an achievement among disability activists.

Other advantages: Duckwork could help defend some important House races such as in Kansas, Colorado, and Ohio. Duckworth’s knowledge in Asian foreign policy could be a big help in discussing international pandemic politics.

Cons: Duckwork has made some mildly disparaging comments toward a few figures on the left, including AOC. Also, there have been some investigations into her treatment of a staff member and tenure at the Department of Veteran Affairs.

5. U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin, Wisconsin

Photo Credit: Bill Clark/Getty Images

Baldwin is an incredible senator and would be my first recommendation for Biden if it weren’t for one glaring problem: She’s holding a senate seat that Democrats would not likely be able win in a special election. Ouch! It’s an unfortunate situation for a senator that so clearly matches the Biden campaign’s needs. She also holds many progressive policy positions that would satisfy some unease on the left. For example, Baldwin voted to oppose the Iraq War in 2003, rebuked Bill Clinton for supporting the military’s “don’t ask, don’t tell” policy, a member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, and a supporter of single-payer healthcare.

Most importantly, Baldwin would be the most likely of candidates to deliver a swing state in November. Baldwin’s appeal in Wisconsin is to be reckoned with; defeating her 2018 Republican opponent by double-digits in a state Clinton lost by less than one percentage point.

Baldwin is among the most experienced candidates being considered; having served 25 years in government at all levels: city, county, state, House of Representatives, and a senior senator.

A real moment for gay rights: Baldwin is openly gay, the first to be elected to both the House and the Senate. She was one of the only gay politicians in the country in the 90s and proposed marriage equality for Wisconsin in 1994.

Personal note: Tammy is a really nice person, one of the nicest I’ve met in politics. I met her at a small gathering in downtown Miami a few years ago, along with Sen. Debbie Stabenow, and I was particularly impressed. Most politicians don’t engage much with the attendees during events (that was my experience with Hillary at a bookstore event), but Tammy was very nice to me. She shook my hand and I got to take a picture with her. She talked to me for awhile in a crowded room, where just about any other politician would’ve moved on in two seconds. She’s an adept speaker and has the ability to say just he right thing.

Cons: Not well known nationally and holds a senate seat that cannot be easily replaced. Because control of the Senate is essential to Biden’s first term if elected, I doubt Baldwin would make the top of his list. But if concerns emerge early on that suggest Wisconsin may be too far out of reach, I suspect the idea of a lock on the state’s 10 electoral votes with Baldwin may be too hard for Biden to pass up.

Wild Card VP Choices

Mayor Lori Lightfoot, Chicago

Photo Credit: AP Photo/Nuccio DiNuzzo

Has a mayor ever been selected for VP? The answer is no, but that doesn’t mean it’s out of the realm of possibility. Lightfoot is the first openly gay African American women ever elected mayor in a major US city, rising to power from a leadership vacuum left by former Mayor Rahm Emanuel’s departure. Lightfoot began her career investigating corruption in Chicago and headed the Chicago Police Board, where she helped usher in greater police accountability. Lightfoot has been more effective than many observers anticipated, cutting more deals with a factitious counsel than her more recent predecessors. While she may not be best suited to be Biden’s VP, Lightfoot’s blossoming career is certainly one to watch. Hint: Chicago isn’t THAT far away from Iowa.

Governor Laura Kelly, Kansas

Photo Credit: Nomin Yjiyedin/Kansas News Source

A Democrat elected in Kansas? If you haven’t heard of Kansas’ political woes over the past few years, you’ve missed out on some great theater. Last cycle, Kelly defeated controversial Republican Kris Kobach, who is currently running for the state’s open senate seat. Kelly received a flood of unique endorsements, impressive for a candidate of relatively low profile. In just a little over a year, Kelly has become remarkably successful; earning praise for navigating coronavirus relief efforts in a red state and for pushing the passage of Medicaid expansion, once considered a nearly impossible feat for Kansas. Certainly, a Kelly pick could put a safely held Republican senate seat in play.

Former State Representative Stacey Abrams, Georgia

Photo Credit: Courtesy of Stacey Abrams to Vox

What Abrams lacks in experience, she makes up with in personality. Abrams comes with a powerful campaign toolbox that would surely help boost Biden’s campaign in southern states. With Abrams on the ticket, flipping North Carolina could be within reach and once dismissed senate races in Alabama and South Carolina may get a second look. I would say it’s not out of the question considering that the South was pivotal in delivering Biden the nomination early. Abrams is very much a wild card in this polarizing environment because it’s not clear if her star power would be able to attract as many voters as it would repel (a similar scenerio with Warren). But that might be a risk Biden needs to take.

Notably Not On The List

U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren, Massachusetts

U.S. Senator Catherine Cortez Masto, Nevada

Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Michigan

Representative Val Demings, Florida

Secretary Susan Rice, Washington, D.C.

References:

WilliamWalterHarris@gmail.com