Gasparilla Bowl Betting Preview
Tags: Sportsbetting, Collegefootball

Emotions should run high as UCF gets to take their swing at one of their big in-state rivals

Gasparilla Bowl

UCF (8–4) vs Florida (6–6)

Wednesday, 7pm, ESPN

Florida -7/Total 55.5

Head to FanDuel Sportsbook to take advantage of your $1,000 risk-free bet

When you talk about bowl game motivation, there is arguably no team that has ever been as motivated for a December 22nd bowl game than UCF is for this one. The Golden Knights have only played the three big Florida schools (Florida, FSU, Miami) five times in their existence and are 0–5. They haven’t played any of them since 2009 and haven’t played Florida since 2006. They want this game. How much that matters is hard to say. These are two teams who went in opposite directions this year. UCF started 3–3 before winning five of their last six. Florida was 3–1 with a close loss to Alabama and ranked in the top ten before the bottom fell out. They ended the season on a high note beating arch rival Florida State to get bowl eligible.

The quarterback situation at Florida is bowl season in a nutshell. Emory Jones is going to transfer after the game, but with Anthony Richardson injured, Jones is sticking around to play for a team he is leaving after the game. Jones’ inconsistency was frustrating for the Gators, mostly when it came to turnovers. Jones threw 13 interceptions to go with his 19 touchdown passes. He’s also the Gators leading rusher with 697 yards on the ground. The Gators spread the ball around in the passing game. Six players had at least 20 catches this season. Florida is vulnerable against the run which may be a problem in this game. The Gators allow 153.6 yards per game and 4.31 yards per carry on the ground. They gave up 321 yards on the ground to LSU, 284 to South Carolina and 146 yards to Missouri’s Tyler Badie.

For a variety of reasons UCF went from a prolific passing team to a rushing team. It starts with the shift from Josh Heupel’s vertical passing attack to Gus Malzhan’s run-based offense. It also was facilitated by the injury to quarterback Dillon Gabriel who only played in three games. UCF also dealt with injuries at receiver as well. UCF runs for 188.7 yards per game and their 5.31 yards per carry is 11th in the country (Florida is tied for eighth in that stat for what it’s worth). Mikey Keene isn’t a prolific passer, but after a blowout loss to Cincinnati he limited his mistakes throwing just two interceptions in the final six games of the year and none in the final four. In their final five wins, UCF’s defense didn’t allow more than 17 points, but did take it on the chin against a good SMU offense in their lone loss in that stretch. Like Florida, UCF was pretty solid against the pass for the most part, but struggled to stop the run.

The folks who put the bowls together may have given us a blessing by putting Florida in a game against a team who REALLY wants to kick their ass. With an interim coach and a quarterback with one foot out the door, Florida could really have mailed this game in, but there’s probably enough juice to this game for them to care. I’d expect this game to be a slugfest. Neither team is great at throwing the ball and both defenses are vulnerable against the run so I see some value in an under, but the money line is higher than +200 so maybe a small swing on UCF is worth a play.