Upper 90 Game of The Day — Everton v Man City
By: Kyle Newbould
Tags: Football, Everton, Preview, Manchester City, Premier League

We’re now deep into the festive football calendar, and the games just keep on coming. Monday’s pick of the fixtures comes from Goodison Park as Everton host Man City in a bank holiday beauty on Merseyside.

Everton are back on a hot streak and currently sit 2nd, on 29 points, behind Mersey rivals Liverpool. Doubts were cast when Carlo Ancelotti’s side won just 1 in 7 throughout November and October, but those doubters have since been silenced as the Toffees won their last 4 in a row — including wins against Chelsea, Leicester and Arsenal.

Their visitors this evening are in a fair hot streak of their own. City are 5th on 26 points, but have a game in hand on Everton and Leicester above them, which could take them as high as second. After an inconsistent start to the 2020/2021 season, they are now 6 unbeaten in the league, and they have kept a clean sheet in 5 of those. Pep Guardiola’s side are far from the scintillating team that have graced the league for the last few seasons, but they are winning, and winning consistently now.

Statistical Analysis

The Toffees recent form has been characterised by their new-found defensive solidity. In their last 5 games, they have conceded just twice, from an average xGA/90 of just 0.98. In their 5 games previous to that, they won just once, lost 4, and conceded 10 goals from an average xGA/90 of 1.8 — almost double their recent efforts.

The recent return to the back 4 — with Ben Godfrey and Mason Holgate filling in at full-back — has seen Ancelotti’s side strengthen immensely at the back, and a few decent performances from Jordan Pickford won’t have done their confidence any harm. Everton last played a back 3 in the 1–1 draw at Burnley, and in their 4 subsequent games with a 4, they conceded just once.

Going forward, Everton rely heavily on the goals of Dominic Calvert-Lewin. The England international has bagged 11 times in 15 starts this season, averaging 0.75 goals per 90 minutes from an xG/90 of 0.56. He will have his work cut out for him against a strong City defence, however.

That City defence is seemingly the only one more impenetrable than Everton’s in recent weeks. Whilst their hosts on Monday have conceded just twice in their last 5, City have conceded just once in their last 6. They have kept clean sheets in 7 of their 14 league games, and have more than once on 2 occasions — 5 against Leicester and 2 against Tottenham.

City’s total of just 12 goals conceded this season is the lowest in the league, and their xGA/90 of just 0.89 is the lowest in the league by some way (Brighton are 2nd at 1.01).

It is well known that Guardiola’s attacking play isn’t as free-flowing and past-paced this year as it was in previous years — likely due to a conscious decision to step the foot off the gas during this congested and demanding fixture list — and City’s attacking numbers are far from numbers of the past. Their xG/90 of 1.66 is 6th in the league, and their shots on target per 90 of 5.21 is 5th.

City’s main source of creativity is undoubtably Kevin De Bruyne, who has 7 assist this season form an xA of 5.3. The Belgian is joint top alongside Bruno Fernandes for xA/90 at 0.43, and for a side that isn’t creating anywhere near as much as their rivals — or themselves in seasons past — is very impressive.

Tips

Medium Risk Tip — Over 9 match corners @ 8/11: Both sides are averaging more than 10 match corners per game, with Everton games averaging 10.93 and City games averaging 11.14. Both sides will create chances, but this is unlikely to be a game full of goals. Two positive attacking sides however, are likely to each get their fair share of corners.

High Risk Tip — Under 2.5 goals @ 13/10: Whilst Everton’s games are averaging 3 goals per game, this number is heavily inflated by early season performances. More recently, only 1 in their last 7 has ended with over 2.5 match goals. Of all of City’s 14 games this season, only 3 have produced more than 2 goals. Expect tonight to be an incredibly risk-averse chess match between two of the leagues most sturdy defences, and two struggling front-lines.