How Probability Thinking Can Change Your Life
By: Vera Nova
Tags: Writing, Self Improvement, Getting Started, Awareness, Life Lessons

“Doubt kills more dreams than failure” Suzy Kassem

One morning I’ve opened my eyes and the world was different. Or rather, I was different.

At night something amazing happened — I have decided that today I am starting a blog. I was elated. And as I imagined my future, I loved the new me that I envisioned.

Being recognized for my writing has been on my bucket list since I learned how to read. The idea that I can touch the lives of others through writing makes the introvert in me tingle.

But as soon as I typed the first word on the screen, the excitement has started to evaporate and the feeling of dread crept in.

“What am I going to write about?” “What if I suck?” “I don’t think I have anything important to say” “I will never be good enough” “There are tons of amazing writers, and I will be average at best.”

And that was the end of it.

This has been a recurring theme in my life. So far the fear of failure has cost me among other things:

An e-commerce business

A novel

A blog

Becoming an entrepreneur

Sounds familiar?

For the next two years, I kept entertaining the idea of starting a blog, but I took no action upon it. Until today. Here is what changed:

Why “Just do it” approach doesn’t work

When you first get an idea, it’s like a spark has been lit and you feel the tingling of excitement all over your body. Everything feels possible. The world is amazing and you are powerful.

But the moment you start thinking about going for it — you start to see every difficulty and obstacle that stands in your way. And the doubt starts to chip away at your dreams. Until you’ve convinced yourself to give up.

In the last two years, I’ve read every possible resource about starting a blog. And the advice I often saw was — stop thinking, just go for it.

While good advice that works for some people, it didn’t work for me for years. The dread of finding out that I am not good enough was too strong. I was simply too scared.

It was only after I stopped seeing the future as a binary “yes or no” value and instead started thinking in terms of probabilities that I was able to get over the action paralysis that was ruling over my life.

How seeing the future as a collection of probability streams makes fear of failure irrelevant

According to Elon Musk, our lives can take many different paths, each with their own probability.

I look at the future from the standpoint of probabilities. It’s like a branching stream of probabilities, and there are actions that we can take that affect those probabilities or that accelerate one thing or slow down another thing. I may introduce something new to the probability stream.

Our future is not made of “yes or no” flowcharts— it is made up of endless possible futures. Every action or inaction changes probabilities of certain futures becoming a reality.

For example, if you never buy a lottery ticket — the probability of you winning a jackpot is zero. If you do — the probability is 1 in 14 million. While in practical terms, these chances are not much different, this principle holds true for anything you do or don’t do in your life.

If I don't’ write — the probability of me becoming a successful writer is zero. The moment I started writing my chances improved. I have a long way to go, but one thing is certain — the more I will practice my craft, the probability of success will grow. With every word the future of “I am a writer” becomes more probable.

And here is the advantage of probability thinking — it makes the fear of failure completely irrelevant.

We are all scared of uncertainty. But if you look at your actions from the standpoint of probable futures, there is no uncertainty. Every action or inaction will affect the probability of certain outcomes without fail.

So if you are still holding off from starting something new for the fear of failure — start looking at your actions through the lens of probability thinking.

What action do you need to do today to increase the probability of the future you want becoming a reality?