Labour’s popularity is all too fragile
By: Arshia S. Tabatabaee
Tags: Boris Johnson, UK Politics, Politics, Conservatives, Labour Party

Photo: Jonathan Brady/PA

Since they occurred, I’ve spent a great deal of time thinking about the two by-elections in North Shropshire and Old Bexley & Sidcup, both with their own implications on UK Electorate. However the impact these two elections made on the Labour party felt majorly null — the results showed nothing unexpected and proved that the parties campaigning and messaging was still as rough as it was in the Local Elections earlier in 2021 when they lost over 300 councillors. It also highlighted that Labour have been unsuccessful yet again in their ability to create new coalitions of voters.

For nearly one month now, Labour have been steadily riding ahead in the polls, currently representing around a 6 point lead (as of 20/12/21) ahead of the Conservatives. The change happened after the sleaze row regarding Owen Paterson then followed up by the Party Scandal which put Boris Johnson’s name in tatters (link to relating article here.) To many, this reveals a major shakeup in the country as voters find it easier to support the Labour party, yet analysts have warned that this does not represent popularity in the Labour party as much as it does a short term silence in the conservative voters— as Ben Walker says in this article about current polls “It’s often easier for parties to win back voters from the wilderness than it is from their opponents.” After all, Labour have done very little to be more appealing.

All the polling questions for Labour goes hand-in-hand with the confused nature of the current Labour electorate. Every party will appeal to certain demographics and groups and one can make stereotypes of a voter based on this — UKIP voters racists, Conservative voters old and Green voters young. Here Labour finds itself in a conundrum as a result of the lopsided partisan structure of the UK electorate, where the left is fractured into more parties than the political right, and while other ‘left-wing’ (or better described as anti-tory parties) have found their groups of the population, one could argue the Labour party has lost their appeal on any major group of people since Tony Blair. Gordon Brown showed the public what they disliked about Labour, Ed Miliband was deeply unpopular throughout and Jeremy Corbyn managed to isolate the majority of his party and country in favour of a small and deeply ideological group.

Keir Starmer’s pragmatic approach hasn’t been nearly as successful as he wished. Since becoming Leader of the Labour party, he’s alienated many of the people Corbyn added to his party, the Corbynites, and hasn’t managed to create a loyal base within his own party nor find a demographic to chase. North Shropshire showed the Labour Party that they can’t capture the vote of the rural, homeowners and Old Bexley & Sidcup showed them that firm Conservatives wouldn’t change their votes for Labour, even if the Liberal Democrats do. On top of all that, recent polling by Redfield & Wilton shows that a majority of Labour voters could see themselves voting for another of the so-called left wing parties in the future, revealing a real fragility to the current Labour party.

On an oddly bright note, this polling does also suggest that tactical voting is much more likely among the Labour party, which is what it might take to remove the Conservatives. Another positive for Keir Starmer is change in public attitude towards the Economy, where the public cares significantly less about Government debt signalling a change from the 2010 austerity demands, towards an economy more about prices and salaries — an area of the economy that the Labour party can answer for.

Without a doubt, the future of the Labour party is uncertain and we stand at a crossroad where the party can create a momentum and ride with it to 10 Downing Street, or watch as the next YouGov poll goes against them once more. Labour’s popularity is all too fragile, but with a few good punches, the next election could be theirs to win.