COVID-19: An Opportunity for Electric Aircrafts to Take-off
Tags: Elon Musk, Aviation, Electric Vehicles, Airlines, Covid 19

Today I decided to write about technology and science. Technology is one of the areas that I really would like to share my ideas. I have more than 15 years of experience in aerospace technologies, advanced manufacturing, and materials science. I think it is an excellent time to talk about these subjects. Mainstream tech concepts shift from information technologies to deep tech, and I believe we need more of them. We need more companies like SpaceX, Tesla, etc. These companies utilize advancements in computer science and electronics while pushing the boundaries of older industries like aerospace and automotive.

Air Taxi — NASA

There are many other old industries like these, such as aviation, energy, and healthcare. As we are passing through the COVID-19 pandemic, we have an opportunity to think about re-shape and make these industries work more efficiently for the advancement of humanity.

COVID-19 disrupted supply chains all over the world. The goods that are once viable for mass production at not anymore since demand reduced massively. This makes some of the parts or products viable for other approaches. Companies can utilize additive manufacturing or deliver goods that can be services instead of products.

Top industries negatively impacted by COVID-19 are Travel & Tourism, Retail, and Airlines. We won’t want to fly on a crowded airplane with hundreds of people. It will take some courage until somebody comes with a vaccine to COVID-19. Even if a vaccine is invented, mass production and injection of billions of people will take time. Airplanes will not fly if we cannot find a solution. Will there be an option to test people before flight? To save the aviation industry. Airlines make money by selling tickets while aircraft manufacturers make money from maintaining aircraft and selling spare parts. No flights mean no maintenance need, and no spare parts sale means no cash flow for aircraft manufacturers. Air travel restrictions drive the impact on the industry. Regardless of potential pandemic precautions that are going to integrate into the current check-in process, there are three scenarios for the aviation industry.

Good

Minor period of air travel restrictions is the fastest possible recovery scenario even it may be possible to back regular till 2020 winter for the aviation industry. Still, we already about to pass that stage. It would be possible to observe a recovery in the industry that enables pre-pandemic period growth. However, this one seems very unlikely as the death toll increase every day.

Bad

In a more severe scenario like air travel restrictions will be for 4–6 months. This still seems like a no big hit, but this is not the case. The need for maintenance, repair visits, and spare parts would be severely impacted in this case. It will take till the end of 2021 to back to a normal-ish state. Even if we go back to the regular, the aviation industry will shrink. Large body aircraft will be impacted heavily. These aircraft are primarily used for travel between countries, and there will be other control checks during immigration like testing, vaccination reports control, etc.

Ugly

The worst scenario will be an air travel restriction somewhere around 6–9months, even if this one seems to be the worst. Unfortunately, this one is the most likely one since a vaccine will take 12months to be developed, and it will not be widely available for another 6months. Recovery to the normal state will probably take till the end of 2022…two and a half years. This is a very long time. The aviation industry will shrink massively.

This may not be all bad. Successful tech start-ups can turn in to unicorns in a year. This crisis period can be an opportunity for new technologies, start-ups to disrupt the aviation industry.

Let’s rethink the aviation industry altogether. Do we really need those large and crowded airplanes?. We are at the dawn of electric aircraft or flying cars. COVID-19 can accelerate the adoption of electric aircraft. There are more than 100 electric aircraft projects under development. In addition to that, even Elon Musk thinks that electric vertical take-off landing aircraft are the optimum solution for aviation.

Why Elon favors electric aircraft over existing jet engine technology: Electric VTOL aircraft are significantly more efficient than combustion-engine aircraft in various fields. Electric motors have a higher power to weight ratio. This helps to build capable aircraft with larger payload capacity. There is no need for tails, rudders, and elevators. They are eliminating these parts of the aircraft structure to help to reduce weight and increase efficiency. Gimble, instead of these structures, can accomplish all maneuvers. Electric motors get better as aircraft fly at higher altitudes. This is not the case for jet engines. The air’s density reduces at higher elevations, and jet engines breathe air to burn the fuel. There is an optimum altitude for jet engines can work efficiently. Let’s see a more scientific and in-depth study on electric aircraft and potential use cases from NASA.

Observations from Exploration of VTOL Urban Air Mobility Designs — NASA W.Johnson, C.Silva

Above chart is taken from a study done by NASA Ames Research Center. It shows a comparison of electric VTOL aircraft types. I also learned that 1nm=1.15miles = 1.8km. There are three types of electric aircraft for different use cases. The first one is air taxi with just 50nm=57.5miles=90km this for urban mobility, especially for high traffic cities. It is like a quadrotor drone, but that can carry one passenger. On the other hand, there is a larger one with a 200nm=230miles=360km range. This one targets regional aircraft with a capacity of 6 passengers. The last one is the largest design point and alternative to narrow-body aircraft:

15 Passengers: This is much better to control during Covid-19 pandemic

400nm Range: This makes around 460miles=720km. This is range is enough to cover one of the busiest flight routes in the world, such as from Los Angeles, California (LAX) — San Francisco, California (SFO).379.14 mi (610.17 km)

Tilting: Enables vertical take-off. There is no need for runways and huge airports to operate this aircraft.

NASA is not the only organization coming up with potential ideas on electric aircraft. A US Based company called Zunum Aero is developing a hybrid-electric aircraft with lower travel times, can operate in smaller airports, and has lower fare rates and is much more environmentally friendly.

Zunum Aero’s hybrid-electric solution has 700 miles of range 340mph max cruise speed and shorter take-off distance with 2200ft. Seating capacity is between 12–6, depending on the social distancing or comfort needs of passengers.

There is another US Based company called Wright Electric that comes up with a distributed propulsion solution. This technology has many advantages, such as noise reduction, lower cost, and drag reduction.

In addition to all of these advancements, governments granting fundings to development projects that reduce CO2 emissions of the aviation industry. These fundings are much more important right now since industry shrinking and cash is a problem. Start-ups and large corporations can accelerate electric aircraft development projects. They both bring us to a cleaner future and rapidly adapt to new modern times.

In conclusion, COVID-19 will be a big trouble aviation industry. Still, on the other hand, it can create opportunities for new ideas and concepts as all other crises.