Not Dealing With Wealth Inequality Could Collapse Civilization
By: Glen Hendrix
Tags: Future, Inequality, Society, Environment, World

It’s very easy to point at billionaires and say, “There! There is the cause of our pain, suffering, and poverty; our lack of a sweet ride, a swank crib, and steak instead of beans for supper.” It’s also hard to really prove that’s the case, and so it comes off as kind of whiny and sour grapes-ish because of that. Maybe that’s why Occupy Wall Street sort of petered out.

But in the back of your mind is that feeling, that gut-induced intuition telling you it makes sense. If that gut feeling comes from having missed a meal or two, you may be cheered to know there are some studies that show a correlation between inequality and the fall of civilizations. Sorry it’s only mental nourishment, not vindication for going out and starting to loot just yet.

Funded by NASA, “Human and nature dynamics (HANDY): Modeling inequality and use of resources in the collapse or sustainability of societies” came out in the May 2014 issue of Ecological Economics. The authors took a well known biological/ecological model known as the “predator-prey model” and applied it to human civilizations setting the humans as predator and planetary resources as prey and introduced a couple of new variables necessary for its practical application for this particular subject because they were so prevalent in the collapse of past civilizations. One of these variables was ecological strain on resources, and the other was the economic stratification of wealth in society.

Rather than a tool for forecasting collapse, the authors of the study wanted something to juggle variables and come up with a balanced, sustainable society with a manageable carrying capacity for out planet. There were some things that became quite evident, however, and all you billionaires out there should take note. With the advent of unequal wealth distribution and disregard for abuse of resources in a society the authors admit, “… the system eventually collapses.”

It may seem fantastical to some people that our modern civilization could possibly collapse. They imagine, somehow, that only happens to other civilizations. Technology will save us. God will intervene. The fact that it has happened to every single civilization in the past does not daunt them as they suck on their venti caramel frappe while accelerating their Hellcat from the Starbucks drive thru on the way to pick up a pound of Wagyu beef for supper.

At this point we should discuss what is meant by “collapse” of a civilization. It is generally agreed the socioeconomic complexity becomes quite a bit less complex. Markets and distribution systems begin to fail. Government currencies will fluctuate wildly or be supplanted by barter or other tokens of wealth. Populations greatly and permanently diminish. The enforcement of laws breaks down. The state’s monopoly on violence is broken by self-proclaimed licenses to kill and/or maim over a large swathe of the population.

In other words the venti caramel frappe becomes a few coffee beans tied up in a paper towel and paid for with two eighths of a cut up silver quarter and a .22 rifle cartridge. The Hellcat becomes an old nag “borrowed” from a children’s riding stable with a rifle prominently jutting from the saddle. The drive thru is a small window crisscrossed with steel bars in the side of a squat, fortified, building covered with graffiti. The Wagyu beef has turned into a quarter pound of dried pinto beans and a can of Spaghettios; but the supper seeker is ambushed and killed on the way to it, his rifle and coffee beans stolen, and him and his horse eaten.

Now that we have a feel for what civilization collapse could look like, let’s talk more about the study. The study goes into the mathematical formulas involving Wealth accumulation, Nature, Commoners, and Elites and the factors that increase and reduce each of these and the sustainability of systems involving these entities. I’m not going to go into the math. If you are interested, it is here.

The major thrust of the study is maintaining a sustainable society by regulating two things — wealth inequality and depletion of resources. According to the study it can be done. With an equitable society that recycles everything and causes no spikes in environmental degradation a sustainable status can be reached and maintained.

It’s a good thing the authors point out this is not for predicting the future collapse of any existing civilization because, according to this modeling tool, our society would be doomed.

Currently, wealth inequality in America is an intractable problem. Worse than in the 1920s. The promulgation of the idea that anyone that works hard enough and smart enough can make it in America is, in effect, dealing from the bottom of the deck. The cards the average American is getting are not winning hands. Of the $98 trillion dollars in household wealth, 90% or $88.2 trillion went to the top 20% of wealthy Americans. Upper middle and middle class would get $9.8 trillion. Less than one third of a trillion dollars goes to the lower middle class. The bottom 20%, the poorest Americans, are an average$6,000 in debt. That’s nearly 70 million people edging towards thinking they have nothing to lose if civilization collapsed. It might even represent opportunities for them to get ahead.

We currently produce about 1.5 billion smart phones per year. Seventy-eight million cars. Four point four billion tons of concrete. For how long is that sustainable?

We are running out of potable water, draining aquifers that can take many years to recharge. We are dumping ever increasing amounts of carbon into our atmosphere. Our planet’s atmosphere and oceans are warming up, and we’re doing next to nothing about it.

There is hope. The HANDY modeling tool tells us that if we begin to moderate wealth inequality and start to manage planetary resources we can avoid the fate of every civilization that has gone before us.

Unfortunately, instead of lobbying his or her members of Congress to increase taxes on the wealthy and throw their support behind the Green New Deal, any billionaire that happens to read this is, instead, now thinking they should add some rolls of silver quarters and boxes of .22 ammo to the vault in the safe room.

So it is up to us Commoners, not the Elites, to vote for politicians that want to increase the wealth and well-being of the small guy instead of already mega-wealthy corporations. It is up to us to vote for politicians that want to save the planet instead of giving it and its resources to companies that want to make a buck at the expense of every man, woman, and child on this world by wrecking the biosphere. It is up to us, and let us hope we’re not too late.