Five games well worth a watch in Week 16
By: Thomas Valentine
Tags: NFL, Los Angeles Rams, Miami Dolphins, Seattle Seahawks, Green Bay Packers

I won’t bore you with a big introduction. It’s Week 16 in the NFL. It’s Christmas Day. Football is good. These are the games you should pay close attention to:

1. Minnesota Vikings (6–8) @ New Orleans Saints (10–4)

Ah, the Christmas Day matchup. An easy place to start. Both teams are coming off the back of two losses. The Saints have every reason to feel pleased with last week, even if they did fall to the hand of the Kansas City Chiefs, a.k.a, the best team in the NFL. They’re depleted.

Drew Brees is coming back from multiple rib fractures on both sides of his chest and a bloody collapsed lung. Even with the arm of a six-year-old, Brees and the Saints were right in this game. He threw a bad interception early on trying to throw to a corner route across the field (dumb) but bounced back with three touchdowns.

If Brees can find a rhythm in time for the postseason, the Saints are to be feared. But, finding that rhythm isn’t a foregone conclusion.

For now, they need to get past a Minnesota Vikings team who are still clinging to hope that they can make the postseason. If they lose to the Saints, it’s done. Lights out. See you later for another year.

It’s one of the best running backs in the NFL against the second-best rush defense in the NFL, per Football Outsiders DVOA metric. The Vikings' offense is more than just Cook, though. The run game and passing game are one of the most symbiotic in the NFL, but they have to cut down on the turnovers if they’re to stand a chance in this game.

Four of the Vikings losses this season have been one-score games. They’ll keep it close against the Saints, but ultimately, their search for postseason football likely ends without a Christmas miracle.

Minnesota Vikings 21–27 New Orleans Saints

2. Miami Dolphins (9–5) @ Las Vegas Raiders (7–7)

Remember when Jon Gruden was considered a legitimate Coach of the Year candidate back in Week 7? Yeah, I remember too. That shit was funny. The Raiders do deserve a modicum of credit, though. They’ve knocked off two of the best teams in the NFL this season: the Kansas City Chiefs and the New Orleans Saints.

BUT, they were also spanked by the Atlanta Falcons and have the 29th ranked defense in DVOA. The Raiders haven’t had a top-half ranked defense since 2006. That is embarrassing. It’s the defense that has been their downfall once again. They might have a little respite awarded to them this week.

The Miami Dolphins offense, with Tua Tagovailoa under center, hasn’t set the world on fire, but they have been good. They don’t turn the ball over and Tua is an accurate passer. Luckily for them, their inability to run the ball probably won’t cost them because, well again, the Raiders defense is booty.

As per the norm this season, Miami will create turnovers. They’ll make it hard for a Vegas team in freefall to breathe. If you like watching a good defense, this is the one for you. Unless you’re a Raiders fan (one more, sorry.)

Miami Dolphins 24–17 Las Vegas Raiders

3. Indianapolis Colts (10–4) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (11–3)

The Pittsburgh Steelers are, as a lot of us thought, frauds. In the last three weeks, they’ve come unstuck against a variety of opponents. One had a very good defense (Washington), one had a passable defense and a very good offense (Buffalo), while one had Ryan fucking Finley (Cincinnati).

The offense just hasn’t enough going on to be a real threat. Ben Roethlisberger’s inability to move the ball downfield has hampered the offense, and to make matters worse, they can’t run the ball. The defense, which is fantastic, is the saving grace of the team. But, if the Steelers can’t manufacture long drives, the defense isn’t going to catch a break.

The bad news for the Steelers is that they take on yet another good defense this week in the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts are top-10 in defense DVOA, takeaways, yards allowed per game, and 11th in points allowed per game. Simply put, the Steelers offense is going to struggle.

On the flip side, do you really trust Philip Rivers this late in the season? By now, his arm just isn’t all that durable. The Colts have got a strong offensive line in front of him to keep him safe and are trying to limit how much he throws the ball (35.1 attempts per game, the 18th most in the league). I’m just not sure, though.

I should give Rivers more credit. He’s 8th in DVOA and completing 68.7 percent of his passes — the second-highest completion percentage of his career. This offense is functioning to an acceptable level, but against a good Steelers defense, I’m not sure if acceptable is good enough. Then again…Ryan Finley?

Indianapolis Colts 23–20 Pittsburgh Steelers

4. Tennessee Titans (10–4) @ Green Bay Packers (11–3)

Okay, now we’re talking. The NFC has been pretty inconsistent this season, but the Green Bay Packers have sat atop of the pile for most of the season. It’s fair to call them the team to beat in the NFC. And, if anyone can go toe-to-toe on offense with the Kansas City Chiefs, it’s Aaron Rodgers and Co.

It isn’t tough to evaluate how good Rodgers has been in 2020. Alongside Patrick Mahomes, he leads the MVP race. Rodgers has thrown 40 touchdowns to just 4 interceptions, completing 69.9 percent of his passes for 3,828 yards in the process. Also, his 9.3 adjusted yards per pass attempt is the highest of his career since 2014 — the last team he made First-Team All-Pro.

The Packers are aggressive. They run the ball well, they’re efficient and they have the best wide receiver in the NFL right now in Davante Adams. They also have the second-best offensive line in the league. That’s why they will win this game.

Tennessee has fewer sacks than anyone this season. They have the lowest pressure percentage in the NFL and the worst third-down defense. They force turnovers, but that’s the only way they can get off the field. Aaron Rodgers is going to have all of the time in the world to dissect this Titans defense.

But, hey, let’s not forget that the Titans are a tremendously talented offense. Derrick Henry is the best running back in the NFL right now and he’s going up against a pretty mediocre Packers run defense. The Titans will like to get on the board early to stay on course with their gameplan, and they likely will. It’ll be a high-scoring game, but I refuse to look past Aaron Rodgers — no matter how good Ryan Tannehill has been this season.

Tennessee Titans 33–38 Green Bay Packers

5. Los Angeles Rams (9–5) @ Seattle Seahawks (10–4)

I don’t care what happened to the Rams last week. Read it: I D-O N-O-T C-A-R-E! It was an anomaly, right? The New York Jets were bound to win a game at some point. It just happened to be against the Rams, a team that I have been hyping up as the best team in the NFC for about a month now. Maybe I just don’t want to admit I’m wrong.

Either way, this is the game of the week for me, even if the Titans/Packers game is on Primetime. The reason for me is simple: the Los Angeles Rams defense is must-see TV. They have the 1B player of the NFL in Aaron Donald on the defensive line and a top-3 corner in Jalen Ramsey locking up receivers.

They defend the run well, they’re even better against the pass, and they’re the second-best third-down defense in the NFL. Oh, and AARON DONALD. The man has 12.5 sacks as an interior defender — that’ll never get old.

Whether you trust the Rams offense or not is up to you. They’re the most efficient team at running the ball this season, but questions linger over Jared Goff. He’s thrown the 5th most interceptions (12) this season, but his completion percentage is at a career-high (68 percent). The mistakes are evident, and even if Goff isn’t throwing touchdowns at an incredible rate, he’s quietly doing his job in an offense that doesn’t ask for much else.

And…honestly, that’s probably enough to get the Rams past the Seahawks. Their defense has been a lot better in recent weeks but can still struggle against the pass. The fact that Jamal Adams is their sack-leader is a little concerning, but they still pressure the quarterback enough to cause damage.

The Seahawks are 4th in offense DVOA. For a while, they seemed untouchable. Until they weren’t. Russell Wilson seemed like he was heading for a unanimous MVP selection. Until he wasn’t. Wilson hasn’t dropped off the face of the Earth, but his decision-making for a number of weeks definitely caused him to fall out of the MVP race rather dramatically.

One of the key games in that stretch was against the Rams. Wilson completed just 59.4 percent of his passes for 248 yards and two interceptions as the Rams held the free-scoring ‘Hawks offense to just 16 points. Ramsey proved too much for D.K. Metcalf, who needs to add a real level of aggression to his game.

I can’t see this game being all too different from their first meeting. Unfortunately, the Rams will be without Cam Akers, but they have bodies to step in and fill the void. Their run game is just so efficient and it opens up everything else.

Sean McVay is still a genius. He’ll have Pete Carroll’s number again.

Los Angeles Rams 27–18 Seattle Seahawks