A Light at the End of the Covid Tunnel
By: Chris Calvey
Tags: Society, Politics, News, Coronavirus, Pandemic

Hang in there, Covid-19 vaccines are coming soon. (Image credit: Tama66 via pixabay)

We’ve learned a lot since I last wrote about Covid-19 in May.

Wear a mask. They work. There is no excuse, there is no debate. Dozens of studies on the subject all support the same conclusion: higher rates of mask wearing leads to lower rates of new infections, and less deaths. It’s quite simple: the virus is primarily spread by respiratory droplets in the air. Wearing a mask protects other people by blocking your aerosol particles, and protects yourself by filtering out other people’s. While any mask is far better than nothing, the data shows multi-layer cloth masks are more effective filters than thin single-layer ones (like bandanas or neck gaiters).

Lots of new research suggests that vitamin D may be helpful in protecting you against Covid-19. Comparisons between mild and severe cases show that vitamin D deficiency is a common underlying factor in critically ill hospitalized patients. Correlation doesn’t necessarily imply causation, but vitamin D is also known to be important four our immune system. Your body can make its own by getting some sun, but not so much during winter quarantines. Given the likely upside in reducing Covid severity, and lack of any downsides, I think everyone should start taking vitamin D supplements as a precaution. Don’t go crazy, 1000–2000 IUs per day is fine, taken with meals to help absorption.

We now have at least two extremely promising vaccine candidates, and more still coming down the pipeline! The Pfizer/BioNTech study enrolled 43,000 participants, half of which got a real vaccine and half of which received a placebo. After a first-stage analysis, there were 170 confirmed cases of Covid-19. Of all the people who got sick, 95% of them (162/170) were in the placebo group. It’s a similar story for the Moderna trial: 30,000 participants, 95 confirmed cases, and 90 out of the 95 people who contracted Covid were in the unvaccinated group. These are amazingly good results. The data shows that getting these vaccines will significantly reduce your chances of contracting COVID-19, and if you do get it, will significantly reduce your odds of dying from it.

I know that some people will be understandably cautious about getting such a new vaccine. The politicization of everything in our lives has unfortunately undermined the public’s confidence in this vaccine development process. But let me make this as clear as possible — you can trust the scientific method. These clinical studies have strictly designed trial protocols, approved by the FDA/NIH, with predefined rules about how the statistical analysis will be conducted. The results are in, and the math doesn’t lie.

Within the next few weeks, you’ll be hearing about these vaccines getting “FDA emergency use authorization.” In short, this means that after rigorous safety and efficacy testing in the clinical trials, the data demonstrates such a compelling potential benefit to public health that it outweighs any potential unknown risks. I know that some people will be understandably concerned about the possibility of these vaccines having dangerous side effects. We have good news on that front as well: from the tens of thousands of volunteers who have received vaccines since July, there have been no adverse reactions beyond the standard fatigue and aches you might get from a flu shot. (By the way, get your flu shot too.)

Some will argue that we have no way of knowing whether rare, unintended, side effects might emerge over time. While it’s true that these sorts of long-term studies are still ongoing, we have to weigh this uncertainty against the data we already do have, which is how dangerous and deadly Covid-19 is. Even if you are fortunate to have a mild case, an alarming number of “Covid long-haulers” report suffering long-term health complications even after recovering from the viral infection. These lingering symptoms include chronic fatigue, lung damage, heart inflammation, and mental fog. The bottom line is that vaccination will give you the opportunity to prepare your body to defend itself against these worst outcomes. If I could get either of these vaccines tomorrow, I would do so without any hesitation.

As a scientist, I can assure you that the light at the end of the tunnel is now visible! Millions of doses of these vaccines have already been manufactured, in anticipation of achieving the promising clinical data we now have. The speed at which we have achieved these vaccines should be viewed not with suspicion or with fear, but with pride at witnessing one of the greatest scientific achievements of our lives. The most at-risk groups, like frontline health care workers, will start getting vaccinated by the end of this year. For the rest of us, vaccines should be available to the general public through the Spring of 2021. I would bet on a return to near-normal by next summer!

In the weeks following Thanksgiving in the US, more than 2,000 Americans are dying every single day. Case numbers, hospitalizations, and deaths are on the rise almost everywhere. It’s never been more important for everyone to remain vigilant. I know we’re all tired of this pandemic. It has caused incalculable societal disruption, economic devastation, isolation, suffering, and loss. Many of us have endured the sadness of missing our friends and families, and putting our lives on hold for almost an entire year. But if you’ve been careful enough to avoid getting coronavirus so far — don’t let all of these sacrifices be for nothing. Hang on just a little longer. Wear a mask, take your vitamins, avoid indoor gatherings, and get a vaccine as soon as you can.