Kings XI bowling options in IPL 2020
By: Amol Desai
Tags: Analytics, Sports Analytics, Cricket, Data

Kings XI bowling options in IPL 2020

How KXIP could use their resources effectively

KXIP, in the absence of Ravichandran Ashwin, have a relatively inexperienced spin attack this year. Their pace attack on the other hand, has some experience, but it is overseas heavy. Here, I take a look at their bowling resources and make some recommendations on how they could effectively deploy them. I don’t delve much into overall team composition, chemistry, form and translating non-T20 performances to the IPL in this piece. I also rely almost solely on historical data and refrain from making judgements based on potential, coach-ability, grooming, ROI and other longer term and business considerations.

I’ve used data from most games in the past 3 years of T20s and a methodology that I had developed in previous work here and here to weight evaluations based on evidence such that less evidence projects average outcomes with more and more evidence taking projections away from the average gradually.

Summary of recommendations By Bowler

Mujeeb ur Rahman: One of the stingiest bowling options in all of IPL. Can be bowled in the PP, but bowling in the Middle could be impactful as well given slimmer alternatives in the middle. Try not to leave for the death. There are better options there.

Especially good against Finch, Buttler, Samson. Has taken Pant often without being too expensive. Avoid against KD Karthik. Nabi also takes him for runs.

Mohammed Shami: Local experienced lead, handy under pressure. Good death option. Can be good in the power play, but needs to take more wickets and leave containment to the other end, especially when there is spin on the other end.

Good against Dhoni, KH Pandya. Avoid against ABD, Kohli. Very expensive against Russell. Can be useful to get Lynn, the Pandya brothers, Williamson & even Kohli, not so much Warner.

GC Viljoen: Good in the power play and the death, but not a great option in the middle. Not the first choice for the power play and death either. So, unfortunately, always a backup option. Disproportionately better against right handers.

Good against Stoinis. Stingy against Narine, Rohit Sharma, Dhawan, Pant, Finch, Carey, but these could have come when it mattered less.

SS Cottrell: Great wicket-taking option. Could use as one in the PP and is probably a better option than Shami in the PP based on this. Not a great death option. Has better numbers against left-handers, but this doesn’t show up in match impact.

Good against Pant & Narine. Not the best option against Rohit Sharma & Hetmyer. Has a good chance of getting Steve Smith’s wicket.

CJ Jordan: Good numbers, but beware of the match context for these. Data suggests that these may have come in less impactful situations. Performance is not as great in tough situations. Not a great wicket taking option in the death & against left handers, but he doesn’t leak a ton of runs.

Avoid against RG Sharma, M Marsh, Finch & Moeen Ali. Has a good chance of picking up CA Lynn & SE Rutherford.

M Ashwin: Interestingly, as a leggie, somewhat more successful against left handers. Overall, just about average. Has good economy numbers in the middle overs, but this hasn’t translated to match impact, meaning that these probably came in lower scoring games in general.

Good matchup for Q de Kock. Likely to pick up Rayudu, PA Patel, SA Yadav and Narine, but not overwhelmingly so.

Not sure if Ashwin would trump Bishnoi as a first choice.

K Gowtham: Economy & wicket rate is just at or below average, but these come at the right times and translate to good match impact. Worse against left handers even as an orthodox off spinner. Especially high impact in the middle overs.

Good against Watson, Uthappa & Lynn. Narine seems to take a lot of runs off him.

GJ Maxwell: Great spin option for the power play as well as the death. Can even open if KXIP want to open with spin and Mujeeb isn’t available or doesn’t fit in the team for balance.

Very useful since he does well against good players of spin like MM Ali. Also does well against SA Yadav and IP Kishan. Has a good chance of getting Eoin Morgan.

Jimmy Neesham: Super expensive, but can take wickets at the right times. This has made him especially effective in the middle overs. Probably good to use him in spurts as a partnership breaker.

Not a good option against Stokes. Has a good chance of picking up Russell & Bairstow.

H Brar: Very little signal to say anything meaningful from a data perspective.

Arshdeep Singh: Very little signal to say anything meaningful from a data perspective.

R Bishnoi: Did not have any data for. Personally, I am excited to see how he does though based on whatever I have seen of him.

Nalkande: Did not have any T20 data for. 100% coach’s call.

Ishan Porel: Did not have any T20 data for. 100% coach’s call. He has been coming off a strong domestic season though. So, it might not be a bad call to give him a shot.