Commercializing human spaceflight?
By: Nathan P. Hoffman
Tags: Apollo, Mars, Moon, Spacex, Spaceflight

SpaceX recently conducted another test of their Starship vehicle dubbed SN8. I am extremely happy for SpaceX, as they continue improving their technology and get closer to a flight to Mars, but it got me to thinking, how long have I been waiting for someone to step on Mars or even go back to the Moon? I also have found myself lost in thought, what does human spaceflight even mean today, more than 50 years after we already set foot on the moon?

When I was a kid, I always thought about what it would be like to be in my parents shoes: watching the television to see Neil and Buzz take their first steps on live TV. Inspired by their stories and my childhood experiences with astronomy, I bought my first telescope 12 years ago. I looked at Mars wondering when will we go there? When will I get my chance to see history?

Several years ago I kept up-to-date on every launch and achievement towards the objective of a “return to human spaceflight.” I marveled at SpaceX’s landing system and grasshopper tests, and when they finally landed their first stage, I was cheering as hard as anyone and getting excited that commercial spaceflight could be possible. Launching wealthy people into orbit might seem trivial, but with those funds SpaceX might continue to grow and someday accomplish their mission of sending someone to Mars.

Things got even better when it was announced that there were multiple companies competing to make a human-worthy craft (enter SpaceX’s Crewed Dragon & Boeing’s Starliner). A wealthy business person even stepped forward to claim a seat for a journey to The Moon, perhaps Apollo 8 style. It seemed anything was possible!

And yet, hasn’t this excitement happened before? Human spaceflight has frequently been scaled down, objectives narrowed, and it seems like we have been perpetually stuck in orbit for decades as politicians argue over what state should build which components of the SLS and how important commercial spaceflight actually is. We seem to be much better at dreaming than doing.

So where are we today? Well, I admit we are still moving forward, despite multiple delays in the human program, such as Yusaku Maezawa having to wait an additional 5 years. (his trip was moved from 2018 to 2023, and then again when it was announced he would only be going on a Starship once complete) A trip that would simply do what Apollo 8 did nearly 52 years ago. And while I may sound like I am disappointed in the state of human spaceflight, I suppose it is bittersweet for me. I feel like we are moving faster than the shuttle era, and I have to credit Elon, SpaceX, Space Lab, and other commercial companies, but I also feel like we all under-estimated how hard it would be to return to The Moon or send someone to Mars.

I remember about 5 years ago, when I was caught up in the hype of SpaceX, I figured out with a conservative estimate that there was a 50% chance we would send someone back to the moon in the 2020s, and here I am sitting at the dawn of the 2020s and wondering if there is even a 50% chance to be had for the 2030s.

I don’t think anyone can say that after years of delays, disappointments (certainly not just with SpaceX) but with the ULA, NASA, and other companies / governments, that even they know when they will achieve their goals. This is to say nothing of the risks involved or the delays if we ever lose a person to space in the modern age, which is more likely to happen than we may want to believe.

But that also got me thinking, when we do finally land that person on Mars (or going back to the Moon), and I still think it is when (not if). What will the landing look like with all of our modern camera equipment?

As a kid, I pictured it would be a brave astronaut like Neil Armstrong or Buzz Aldrin stepping on the surface of the Moon or Mars with cool dispositions and enough inspiration for a generation of scientists. Five years ago I would have told you that SpaceX would launch someone without any investors or marketing materials and still be very cautious about the landing with a very respectful approach. Today, I am more cynical, while I don’t picture it to be a Nascar-hyped advertising event with patches covering their uniforms, I do expect there to be quite a bit of marketing and commercialism involved. I also don’t expect us to send the right people, but rather the people who can pay the most.

Rather than the first words being “That’s one small step for man, one giant leap for mankind.” and a mission logo that was careful not to even mention the United States or the astronauts names, those stepping off will jump into a Tesla rover and talk about how great SpaceX is rather than the Moon itself. Rather than planting a nation’s flag, they will plant the foundation for the SpaceX company moon factory or worse, a commercial advertisement for large companies here on Earth.

Many years ago people like Gene Cernan and other ex-Nasa astronauts spoke out against commercial spaceflight listing problems they had with the program. At the time I was quite angry at them, and honestly I still think they missed the point. This also affected Elon Musk so much that he nearly cried when asked about this on 60 minutes, he barely got out his response “I was very sad to see that — those guys are heroes of mine — it is really tough”

I still feel for Elon and I respect SpaceX, but after seeing them launch a Tesla into space, it really got me thinking, could Gene have been at least partially right? Maybe going to space and landing on Mars is less important than how or even when we get there but why we go there.

I suppose an argument could be made that going to the Moon or Mars for commercialism isn’t as bad as going their over the Cold War, but I don’t think that is the right way of looking at it. NASA had funding because of The Cold War and we chose to use that funding to explore space despite it (the Saturn V was never going to be a missile, it was too large and impractical). We went there as a shared national dream — a human one.

So when we go to Mars, will we go as a statement of the accomplishments of humanity? Will we take the best people, common ‘Joes’ and scientists and a variety of different skill-sets with us? Will we take people of varied economic, political, sociological, and national backgrounds? Or will we take only the people who can pay the most? Ultimately, the decision is up to the next generation of commercial companies and people. I can only hope that they make the right choice.

While people like Elon may have the interests of their companies in mind when they land on the Moon (or Mars) I also know that there is hope: those same people may remember the importance of space flight. And perhaps of all people, Elon may remember this best given how much he cares about history: