Decentralized Betting And Predictions Markets Predict Trump’s Fate
Tags: Predictions, Cryptocurrency, Trump, Bitcoin, Covid 19

The US elections may have been significantly affected by the Covid19 crisis, but it hasn’t stopped betting platforms and voters from casting their votes where it matters. While centralized betting sites are available, a more interesting play is how decentralized offerings are taking gambling on the US elections to the next level. Which has led decentralized betting and predictions markets to predict Trump’s fate, and it isn’t looking good.

How Do You Bet On The US Elections With Cryptocurrencies?

It’s illegal to bet on political elections in all 50 states in the US — it’s enforced and regulated heavily by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The one centralized option available, PredictIt, is an academic-focused, non-profit setup that is meant to help generate data, with extremely low limits of $850 worth of shares on each contract.

But the ban hasn’t stopped many from finding creative ways to put a price to the elections, and cryptocurrencies along with blockchain technology are one of the easiest ways. Whether you enjoy gambling or not, you might be interested to know that there are many more ways that you can put your money on the elections. Check out this compiled list of the most common ways to do so.

1. Betting Using Crypto-based Derivatives

Crypto Derivatives are a type of security that is powered by a contractual relationship between the issuer of the security and the buyer. The Trump 2020 futures contract traded on FTX is a great example: the contract will payout 1 USD if Donald Trump wins the 2020 US presidential elections, and 0 USD if it does not.

As of 30th October, the price of the contract is hovering between 0.375 and 0.400 USD, indicating that the markets believe Trump to be less likely to win.

You can also purchase the opposite type of futures contract on FTX, “Biden 2020”, although the liquidity for Trump futures is certainly much higher.

Interestingly enough, after the first presidential debate, the price of Trump Futures dropped by over 8.11% in value — a sentiment that means bettors could be dismayed by Trump’s performance. A telling sign as decentralized betting and predictions markets predict Trump’s fate.

2. Betting On Blockchain-based Predictions Marketplaces (AUGUR)

Augur (REP) is an old but well-known decentralized predictions market that operates directly on the blockchain. They offer a global, no-limit opportunity for users to bet on the outcome of real-world events, such as sports, economics, and of course the US presidential election. Any user can create a prediction market on Augur, with smart contracts and incentivized, crowd-sourced reporters that enforce the payouts — a huge improvement compared to centralized alternatives such as shady betting websites.

Augur themselves issued the “YTRUMP”, or “YES Trump” tokens, which stand to receive payouts should Trump win. Conversely, NTRUMP or “NO Trump” tokens would payout if Biden wins. YTRUMP tokens are worth around $0.4 at present, placing them in a similar range to the FTX tokens.

The interesting part about Augur is that because it’s a peer-to-peer protocol with issuance created by users, accessing it to bet on the US elections is surprisingly easy — you simply need a blockchain wallet to hold the tokens, and their price will match the payouts through arbitrage after results are confirmed by incentivized reporters.

In fact, Augur users bet over $111,000 across all available election-related markets on the platform after the first Presidential election debate. The downside of betting through Augur is that its global nature means that the results are significantly skewered by non-american participants.

3. Betting Using Blockchain-based Information Markets (POLYMARKET)

Similarly to Augur, Polymarket is a blockchain-based predictions market that is run entirely on the blockchain. It received strong VC funding in lieu of the ICO that funded the AUGUR project, and has attracted over $1 million in trading volume. The platform correctly predicted events such as Microsoft’s failed acquisition of TikTok, the VP nomination of Kamala Harris, and declining unemployment rates in the U.S. Its hottest markets right now are unsurprisingly related to the future of COVID-19 and the US elections.

Compared to Augur and FTX, it has a more familiar betting interface for non-cryptocurrency users, and plans to offer accessibility through wallets that can be funded with fiat and other user-centric options.

4. Other Decentralized Betting And Prediction Markets

In addition to the above options, plenty more decentralized gambling and predictions dApps exist on various blockchains, such as PredIQt (for the EOS blockchain) and Omen.eth, which is uniquely operated by a DAO (decentralized autonomous organization, a term used to describe an organization that runs on the blockchain through votes).

Why Decentralized Betting And Predictions Markets Over Centralized Ones?

With the ban on political betting in the US, decentralized alternatives are certainly a viable opportunity to circumvent the ban. However, even legal centralized predictions markets can be much worse off than the decentralized options; they are heavily regulated in a similar way to traditional gambling, charge high fees, and are largely inaccessible to the average consumer. That being said, centralized platforms do have more liquidity and activity, allowing them to have more accurate or fairer odds for betting.

As decentralized betting and predictions markets predict Trump’s fate (that he will not win the election) only time will tell when the final outcome is announced. Find out more about decentralized applications and protocols at Oobit.com. Oobit is a financial service that makes buying and selling digital currency easy, simple and lets you use crypto with the same ease as traditional money. We connect and introduce what would be an endless maze of information surrounding blockchains, and build tools that enhance the crypto user experience.