UFC Lewis v Daukaus Picks and Predictions
By: Andrew Dougherty
Tags: Sports, Betting, Gambling, UFC, Sports Betting

Well, we’re here. We’ve arrived at the final UFC card of the year. Brace for the next month where we’re going to be without a single event to tide the hunger pains of starvation. This sport can be a cruel mistress sometimes. But hey, Rizin has a banger of a New Year’s Eve card this year, that should be fun. As for this card, it’s got some fun fights. Here’s what I’m thinking.

Matt Sayles (8–3 MMA, 1–2 UFC) v Jordan Leavitt (8–1 MMA, 1–1 UFC)

It’s been nearly two years since we last saw Matt Sayles getting submitted via twister at the hands of Bryce Mitchell. He’s underperformed since getting signed to the UFC and I have to imagine if he can’t pull out this win he’s getting released. On paper, he’s shown a decently well-rounded game, but the guy is mostly a grappler.

Leavitt was handed his first loss in the octagon by Claudio Puelles after gassing out five minutes into the fight. He had a dominant first round and the grappler showed some impressive skills against another guy known for his ground acumen. But after seeing how poor that gas tank was I’m not sure his ceiling is particularly high. He’ll have a chance to prove that his last fight was just a learning experience and he has potential. But for that reason, I think if he’s going to win this fight, it’s a quick submission. This is the first pick ’em of the night. No idea how this will go.

My pick: Jordan Leavitt via Submission in Round 1

Don’Tale Mayes (8–4 MMA, 1–2 UFC) v Josh Parisian (14–4 MMA, 1–1 UFC)

Two of the worst heavyweights on the UFC roster are set to lock up in this one. Mayes has shown next to nothing worth noting. His ground game was exposed by Gane and Nascimento before he managed to get a decision win against Roque Martinez. This guy has been thoroughly unimpressive thus far.

Josh Parisian somehow has repeatedly looked even less impressive. He got beat on by Parker Porter before winning a controversial decision to Roque Martinez. Neither of these guys has shown any real finishing power and both seem to have pretty decent durabilities. I imagine they’ll both be gassed after the first round, but I think Mayes will be able to hold on just a bit longer to edge out the scorecards. This could be bad.

My pick: Don’Tale Mayes via decision

Raquel Pennington (12–8 MMA, 9–5 UFC) v Macy Chiasson (7–1 MMA, 5–1 UFC)

Macy Chiasson gets a second fight this year after all. She steps in on short notice on a two-fight win streak looking to notch her best win to date. She has shown crisp and powerful striking and she has some pretty solid size on her as well. Her strength has played a big factor in a few of her fights.

Pennington is a veteran. At this point, we know that she’s going in there, looking to clinch up and gain top control and ride out the rounds. And her resume, while not super impressive at a glance, is packed full of the best the division has to offer. I’m siding with the vet on this one purely based on experience, but especially with it moved up to featherweight Chiasson is a live dog. This will be interesting.

My pick: Raquel Pennington via decision

Charles Jourdain (11–4–1 MMA, 2–3–1 UFC) v Andre Ewell (17–8 MMA, 4–4 UFC)

Another fighter moving up in weight, Andre Ewell makes his UFC featherweight debut after getting violently stopped by Julio Acre in his last fight. Ewell has shown some solid skills in the octagon, even getting a win over Jonathan Martinez who I think is a good prospect, but had hit his ceiling at bantamweight.

Charles Jourdain is an incredibly fun fighter to watch. Win or lose, almost all of his fights wind up ending with a finish. But I also don’t think any of his wins are particularly impressive. He’s young and there is plenty of room for improvement, but I have yet to see enough to go as far as to say he’s a legit prospect. But his losses do come against pretty solid competition as well. It’s another hard pick but I’m going to side with the Canadian off the fact that he has been at featherweight for a while now. Ewell has the skills to pull out the win though.

My pick: Charles Jourdain via Knockout in Round 2

Sijara Eubanks (7–6 MMA, 5–4 UFC) v Melissa Gatto (7–0–2 MMA, 1–0 UFC)

When Sijara Eubanks can get takedowns, she wins. When she can’t she loses. It’s that simple. Sure a 7–6 record isn’t all that impressive, but when you look at who those losses come to, they’re all exclusively top 15 bantamweights. At flyweight, Eubanks has not lost since 2015, against Chookagian, in her second pro fight.

Melissa Gatto came in like a bat out of hell debuting in the UFC after a nearly three-year layoff with an impressive doctor’s stoppage against Victoria Leonardo. And before that, the 25-year-old did beat Karol Rosa at bantamweight in Brazil. She is talented, but I’m not buying into the hype just yet. This is her true test to see if she’s ready to advance up the rankings. And I think I’ll take the vet again, just due to experience. I think Eubanks should be able to pull this out.

My pick: Sijara Eubanks via decision

Justin Tafa (4–3 MMA, 1–3 UFC) v Harry Hunsucker (7–4 MMA, 0–1 UFC)

Yet another fight that I’m not entirely sure what to make of it. On some level, I feel like the UFC designed this fight to get Tafa a win. And on paper, a Tafa round one knockout seems to be in the cards. Tafa is purely a brawler, he comes to throw fists and put on fun fights. He got outclassed on the feet by Vanderaa in his last fight but has looked pretty decent in his other UFC wins.

Hunsucker got a very short notice debut against Tai Tuivasa, one that resulted in a wild brawl that ended swiftly once Tai landed. The guy is a BJJ base, and I’m very interested to see him test Tafa’s takedown defense. I think this comes down to that element. If Hunsucker gets Tafa down we haven’t seen Tafa’s game there yet. But if Tafa stays standing, Harry is sleeping by the end of the first round. I’m going with the more experienced UFC fighter.

My pick: Justin Tafa via Knockout in Round 1

Raoni Barcelos (16–2 MMA, 5–1 UFC) v Victor Henry (21–5 MMA, 0–0 UFC)

It’s always great to see Raoni Barcelos fight. The dude was on such a hot streak before losing his last fight to Timur Valiev. He’s looking to rebound and start a climb to the rankings in a very stacked division, and at 34 times is running low. His game is very well-rounded and he has proven to be one of the best-unranked fighters at bantamweight.

Victor Henry is stepping in on around a week’s notice. I’m not entirely sure he’s been training much this year. He has notched one fight about a month and a half ago, but he’s been unable to get to Japan where most of his career has taken place. And he assembled a solid resume over there, winning the Deep bantamweight championship. I think he’ll be more than capable there but Barcelos on such short notice feels like too big an ask. But he might be something down the line.

My pick: Raoni Barcelos via decision

Gerald Meerschaert (33–14 MMA, 8–6 UFC) v Dustin Stoltzfus (13–3 MMA, 0–2 UFC)

Pieced together because both guys lost opponents, this is a fight that will either be very lopsided or surprisingly competitive. GM3, hot off the big upset of Makhmud Muradov, was booked to fight Abusupiyan Magomedov. Stoltzfus was booked to fight Anthony Hernandez and then Caio Borralho seeing both fights fall through.

Both of these guys are grapplers. Both of them want to take you down and hunt for a submission. GM3 has done it to several high-profile UFC fighters and has a good bit of momentum on his side as well. Even if this turns into a kickboxing fight, I don’t think Dustin has the power to crack GM3’s notably shaky chin. Quite frankly I’d be very surprised to see Meerschaert lose.

My pick: Gerald Meerschaert via Submission in Round 2

Darren Elkins (26–9 MMA, 16–8 UFC) v Cub Swanson (27–12 MMA, 12–8 UFC)

Out of all the old guy fights that the UFC can make, this is poised to be among the most fun. Both of these guys are going to come into the fight looking to deal serious damage. Neither of them is going to shoot for takedowns. This is pure violence of some pretty solid fighters who may be a bit over the hill in age but still somewhat competitive.

Neither guy has lost to anyone who is not a serious contender when the fight happened. But Swanson had had better competition more recently. This fight seems like a test to see if Cub is completely washed or if he’s still got it. If Cub loses this it might be time to hang it up. Just putting it out there, I am very ride or die with Cub so I am siding with him. But this could go either way. Regardless, it’s a fun fight.

My pick: Cub Swanson via decision

Diego Ferreira (17–4 MMA, 8–4 UFC) v Mateusz Gamrot (19–1 MMA, 2–1 UFC)

CDF is getting up there in age. Not that 37 is necessarily old by normal person standards, but in one of the most stacked divisions in MMA, being only a month away from that age is not beneficial. It also doesn’t help that he is on a two-fight skid against the elite of the division. Gillespie completely broke the man.

Gamrot stumbled in his debut, but since training camps has seemingly learned to strike and then showed that his submission skills are top-notch. He is deserving of this high-ranking shot. And I’d go as far as to say this is his fight to lose. Yes, I am extremely high on Gamrot and yes, CDF is a great fighter who has only lost to elite fighters. We’re going to find out where Gamrot stands.

My pick: Mateusz Gamrot via decision

Raphael Assunção (27–8 UFC, 11–5 MMA) v Ricky Simón (18–3 MMA, 6–2 UFC)

We’re wheeling out a nearly 40-year old against someone turning 30 next year to send him out to pasture. Assunção has had a great career. He’s probably one of the best fighters to never even get a title shot in the UFC. The UFC never gave him much of a fair shake and it’s not like he’s been losing to anyone outside of great fighters. But age is going to catch up to you eventually.

Simón was given the shot to break out when the UFC matched him up with Faber, only to get knocked out brutally. On paper, Simón is the type of fighter that Assunção would be able to steamroll in his prime. But we’re no longer in that prime. This is a fight that Simón should win. He has to win this. If he can’t beat a nearly forty-year-old Assunção I’m not sure what future he has in this division.

My pick: Ricky Simón via decision

Amanda Lemos (10–1–1 MMA, 4–1 UFC) v Angela Hill (13–10 MMA, 7–8 UFC)

As seems to be the theme with this card we have another fun scrap, this time at strawweight. Lemos has been on fire since returning to the UFC after a long layoff. She’s racked up four straight wins, a streak that includes a submission, and two violent knockouts. She definitely likes to keep the fight standing but can handle herself if it hits the mat.

Angela Hill has had mini surges in her career only to not be able to break through a certain level of fighter. Lemos hasn’t yet cemented herself on that level, and it’s not that Lemos hasn’t been finished before. But Hill doesn’t have notable power and her wins aren’t that great. Lemos will do more damage on the feet, potentially even getting a finish, and beat Hill. But it will be plenty of fun while it lasts.

My pick: Amanda Lemos via decision

Stephen Thompson (16–5–1 MMA, 11–5–1 UFC) v Belal Muhammad (19–3 MMA, 10–3 UFC)

Another solid established but aging fighter against a rising prospect. Belal is on a bit of a roll, but his best win is a 43-year-old Demian Maia. He has yet to fight anyone with the striking efficiency of Wonderboy and has yet to beat anyone near as great as Wonderboy. The Maia win is good and all, and it’s not like the man wasn’t competitive even past 40, but this is a real step up.

My concern with Wonderboy lies mostly in his reflexes. I’m not sure we’d have seen what Burns did to him a few years ago. Now Belal is no Gilbert Burns, but Belal does like to clinch, grapple and hold on in his fights. I think Wonderboy should be able to move around a lot and avoid Belal with ease. We’ll see how he looks.

My pick: Stephen Thompson via decision

Derrick Lewis (25–8 MMA, 16–6 UFC) v Chris Daukaus (12–3 MMA, 4–0 UFC)

There are two ways this fight is going to go. Daukaus peppers Lewis with an insane striking differential, landing a bunch of solid shots. Lewis is never able to get any sort of rhythm going and around the third or fourth round, Daukaus begins to pour it on, even more, finishing Lewis. The second way is Daukaus is outpointing Lewis and manages to land a few good shots and then all of the sudden is asleep on the mat.

Lewis has fought much higher competition than this. Daukaus has been knocked out by much lesser fighters. This is a fight that I expect Lewis to be losing until he winds up winning it. Honestly, just trust your gut on this one. If you think Daukaus is quick enough to keep Lewis from timing him, go for it. But I think Lewis will eventually find a counter and it’s going to be violent.

My pick: Derrick Lewis via Knockout in Round 3