Gearing up for the playoffs II. — Why the Premium Pack (Drop 2) MGLE moments are a great investment on the road to the NBA Finals?
By: Balazs Pal, Thebarrelzone
Tags: Sports Betting, NBA, Gambling, Nba Top Shot

Gearing up for the playoffs II. — Why the Premium Pack (Drop 2) MGLE moments are a great investment on the road to the NBA Finals? Balazs Pal (@TheBarrelZone) Apr 24·11 min read

Following up on last week’s article I decided to dive into a certain set that I expect to become a profitable investment pretty soon. For full disclosure: I have bought all the moments I’ll be touting below.

IS IT A GOOD TIME TO BUY NOW?

The market cap has been falling every week in the last two months and prices are now back to the level they were at before the February boom. Many analysts expect that we are close to (if not already at) the bottom and I agree. While almost no one expects a 02/22–02/23 type of bull run, things are likely looking up in the next few weeks. Registrations are open, site performance and pack drops are smoother than ever, we are starting to see a few ads here and there (with a big marketing campaign expected in a month or so based on the 04/23 Office Hours). Most importantly though, exactly four weeks from today the first NBA playoffs game is played. And I’d risk saying that that fact is even more important than anything else around Top Shot. The NBA season creates the main and only narrative around our new favorite hobby and while the last few weeks have been pretty terrible in the Association with all the tanking and the injuries, all this will be over soon and all eyes will be on the hardcourt following the best teams battle it out for the title. Even without a big marketing push or a direct playoffs campaign Top Shot will feel the effects of this. So to answer the question I think yes, the time is right to buy now before everyone gets hyped up for the playoffs.

WHY MGLE?

MGLE is the only set that we know the immediate future of. Yes, we can project the performance of any set and make assumptions about future drops or any moments on the platform, but MGLE is the only set where we know the exact list of upcoming challenges and we can roughly time them as well. Since the 03/19 reboot of MGLEs, challenges have been following each other either after 7 or 10 days. With the things speeding up around challenges and Top Shot in general, it is fair to expect the rest of the MGLE challenges to be 7 days long and start right after the previous one ends. We have five total confirmed challenges besides the currently running Luka one that is running out on 04/29. We will very likely see two more challenges for the Holo Icon (Drop 2) MGLE moments followed by three challenges for the Premium Pack (Drop 2) MGLE moments. If we get two 7-day challenges after the Luka challenge ends on 04/29 that would mean that the first Premium Pack (Drop 2) MGLE challenge would start on 05/13 and run through the play-in tournament (that determines the 7th and 8th seed) until 05/20 (two days before the official playoffs tip-off), while the second and third challenges would run through the first round of the playoffs until 06/03.

My beloved Premium Pack (Drop 2)

If we indeed get the very desirable SGA MGLE reward moment as the MGLE challenge reward at the start of the playoffs followed by two great rewards of rookie Cole Anthony and MVP runner-up Joel Embiid then we are in for good things. We are seeing 40–50%+ value boosts for challenge pieces required for desirable rewards and these challenges being held through the height of the NBA playoff hype we could be in for good things holding MGLE (challenge) moments of players on playoff teams, especially if we see the influx of new users by then. We are not going to bother with the Toppin and Demar rewards as they are less desirable players to work for and these challenges run a few weeks ahead of the playoffs. We are only focusing on the new stuff that people are dumping now (Premium Pack (Drop 2).

The recent influx of MGLEs (almost 60 new MGLE moments got dumpled on us within two weeks) could have led to some MGLE-fatigue which shows in the prices of these supposedly premium moments, plus the fact that there are no real superstars in the set also helps to keep the floor low. Both these challenges and the playoffs are 3+ weeks away and not many are willing to think and make moves that far ahead on Top Shot. That is what we should taking advantage of.

OKAY, BUT WHICH MGLE?

In last week’s post, I detailed that you should only buy moments from players on playoff teams and that is the main train of thought that will lead us here. We will go back to our favorite public resource of NBA projections, FiveThirtyEight to see which teams are getting into the playoffs almost surely (using only public resources for this article so you can get fresh data closer to the start of the playoffs if you wish to do so):

As you can see there is an extremely steep playoff probability drop-off after the Trail Blazers so we are going to the top 14 teams here and look at which moment we got for them in the latest MGLE drop. I will rate each of these moments separately based on the quality/role of the player based on my personal opinion. I will also note the likelihood of the player’s team going deep into the playoffs (using data from the ‘chance of making finals’ column). A combination of these will give us the final grade for each player.

DENVER NUGGETS — Facundo Capazzo (floor price: $200)

Faca is a beloved rookie who won the starting job with the Murray injury. The moment has the two rookie badges (rookie year + rookie mint) and is a pretty fun no-look assist. Denver’s projections with Murray out plummeted big time, but they still have a shot at facing a rusty LAL squad in the first round. We are likely looking at a first-round exit, but if the Nuggets somehow make it through the Lakers then Faca will have a huge part in that by stepping up big time as the starting PG.

PLAYER GRADE: D | CHANCE OF MAKING FINALS: 5% | OVERALL MOMENT GRADE: D

MILWAUKEE BUCKS — Khris Middleton (floor price: $172)

Middleton is the 2A/2B player on a surging Bucks team and he isn’t getting any respect by the market. If the Bucks are going on the run in the playoffs he will have to step up and I’d bet you that the value of his moments will go up after a few 30+ pt games. Sadly the Bucks are currently scheduled to face Brooklyn or Philly in the second round and I don’t see them winning those matchups too often.

PLAYER GRADE: B | CHANCE OF MAKING FINALS: 20% | OVERALL MOMENT GRADE: B

PHOENIX SUNS — Deandre Ayton (floor price: $200)

The Suns are getting either the second or the first seed in the west and an automatic W in the first-round matchup based on looking at the possible opponents. FiveThirtyEight really doesn’t think they have a real shot to get to the Finals, especially as a second-round date with the Clippers is all but set in stone, but I’m a bit higher on them. Ayton is the third-best player on the team, but a very useful one and will likely have a good shot at looking decent in the first round of the playoffs against a weak opponent.

PLAYER GRADE: B | CHANCE OF MAKING FINALS: 7% | OVERALL MOMENT GRADE: B

LA CLIPPERS — Patrick Beverley (floor price: $158)

Beverley is out with an injury, wasn’t a key part of the team to start with and the Clippers did upgrade their guard position since Beverley went down with an injury, likely further lowering his expected minutes. The Clippers are most likely facing a very easy first-round matchup, but the FiveThirtyEight projection is a bit too optimistic of their chances in my opinion.

PLAYER GRADE: F | CHANCE OF MAKING FINALS: 43% | OVERALL MOMENT GRADE: F

BROOKLYN NETS — Joe Harris (floor price: $175)

Harris is the fourth-best player on a top 3 team. The Nets can never stay healthy though (Harden is out when I write this) and if any piece of the big three is out then Harris is looking at increased minutes, role, and scoring (EDIT: He just dropped 20 points on Friday with Harden out). A thing that can easily happen in the playoffs.

PLAYER GRADE: C | CHANCE OF MAKING FINALS: 29% | OVERALL MOMENT GRADE: A

UTAH JAZZ — Mike Conley (floor price: $179)

Conley is the key piece of this Jazz team, an All-Star and a generally liked player on TS. The price of this moment doesn’t reflect that he is a top 3 player on the team with the best record in the league. The Jazz are most likely facing a very easy first-round matchup and their potential way to the Finals isn’t the most difficult ever.

PLAYER GRADE: B | CHANCE OF MAKING FINALS: 29% | OVERALL MOMENT GRADE: A

LA LAKERS — Kyle Kuzma (floor price: $245)

Kuzma is a fan favorite and he doesn’t have many moments on Top Shot, yet this MGLE is very affordable. The Lakers are in a very weird spot right now with AD just coming back from injury, being on heavy minute restrictions, looking rusty, while LBJ still being 1–2 weeks away from returning. A strong playoff run is not nearly as guaranteed as it looked early in the season with multiple other contenders rising and injuries hurting the Lakers. Still, you would be foolish to write them off!

PLAYER GRADE: C | CHANCE OF MAKING FINALS: 14% | OVERALL MOMENT GRADE: C

BOSTON CELTICS — Jaylen Brown (floor price: $298)

The best player of the bunch, the only true star in this set. The Celtics are playing well recently but they need to go on a bit of a run to end the season (and overtake the Knicks and/or the Hawks) to not have to face Milwaukee in the first round.

PLAYER GRADE: A | CHANCE OF MAKING FINALS: 6% | OVERALL MOMENT GRADE: B

ATLANTA HAWKS — Clint Capela (floor price: $164)

Capela is on a roll right now and the fans do love him. All his TS moments are cool and he is only 26 years old playing on a very decent (and young) playoff team. The fate of Atlanta will mostly depend on the first-round matchup, the Knicks would provide a relatively easy W, but they would be underdogs to both Boston and Miami. I’d still think Capela is a great player to hold regardless of Atlanta’s first-round matchup.

PLAYER GRADE: B | CHANCE OF MAKING FINALS: 3% | OVERALL MOMENT GRADE: C

MIAMI HEAT — Kendrick Nunn (floor price: $170)

Nunn has been stepping up lately with multiple injuries to the Miami stars and he looks like to be in great shape going into the playoffs. The Heat are kind of a dark horse for the post-season in my opinion and they really could play spoiler to any big team if they can finally get healthy.

PLAYER GRADE: C | CHANCE OF MAKING FINALS: 4% | OVERALL MOMENT GRADE: D

DALLAS MAVERICKS — Jalen Brunson (floor price: $164)

Brunson is likely the third-best player on the Mavs, a fringe playoff team in the West. Luckily for them, they have a good shot at facing a flawed PHX team. I think they will be able to win at least a game or two in that matchup and Brunson might have a shot at showcasing some of his talents. Very cheap moment and relatively cool. Brunson is also super young (24) and could have a bright future in this league.

PLAYER GRADE: C | CHANCE OF MAKING FINALS: <1% | OVERALL MOMENT GRADE: E

NEW YORK KNICKS — RJ Barrett (floor price: $348)

Barrett is just 20 years old, plays in one of the biggest markets, and has made leaps and bounds this year and he is a very beloved player on Top Shot. While we cannot have unrealistic expectations for the Knicks in the playoffs, it looks like they will win at least 1 or 2 games in their potential opening-round matchup. One of the better long-term HODL potentials on the list, but that is reflected in the price of the moment. You are not getting a bargain here.

PLAYER GRADE: B | CHANCE OF MAKING FINALS: <1% | OVERALL MOMENT GRADE: C

PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS — Norman Powell (floor price: $162)

The Blazers are never an easy out if Dame is on, but their defense is extremely sub-par. Still, Powell is a great scorer and has been a nice addition. Realistically Portland is very likely facing a first-round exit against the Clippers in the playoffs.

PLAYER GRADE: C | CHANCE OF MAKING FINALS: 1% | OVERALL MOMENT GRADE: E

FULL LIST WITH GRADES:

Mike Conley — A

Joe Harris — A

Jaylen Brown — B

Khris Middleton — B

Deandre Ayton — B

Kyle Kuzma — C

RJ Barrett — C

Clint Capela — C

Kendrick Nunn — D

Facundo Campazzo — D

Jalen Brunson — E

Norman Powell — E

Pat Beverley — F

If you want the best of this crew you are sticking to A+B. Those are all great players on top teams that are looking strong going into the playoffs. The C+D tier should also has some nice upside. E+F is optional.

WHAT TO DO WITH THESE MOMENTS?

The nice thing about this investment is that you will have options in four weeks and through the early part of the playoffs.

Flip after the challenge announcements. I’m expecting the prices of these all to rise organically around the playoffs and the challenge announcements should also result in 40–50% appreciation.

I’m expecting the prices of these all to rise organically around the playoffs and the challenge announcements should also result in 40–50% appreciation. Complete the challenges and then sell. You will have a nice head start owning almost the half of this MGLE set resulting in +EV MGLE challenges. Post-challenge prices should be very similar to the current ones offered, especially as many of these players will be playing on winning playoff teams.

You will have a nice head start owning almost the half of this MGLE set resulting in +EV MGLE challenges. Post-challenge prices should be very similar to the current ones offered, especially as many of these players will be playing on winning playoff teams. HODL through the playoffs (after completing challenges). This is risky, but depreciation after the challenges shouldn’t be huge for the best moments from this set for players that have an okay shot at making deep playoff runs (A+B tier). If Phoenix makes a deep run, your Ayton would look awfully good.

This is risky, but depreciation after the challenges shouldn’t be huge for the best moments from this set for players that have an okay shot at making deep playoff runs (A+B tier). If Phoenix makes a deep run, your Ayton would look awfully good. HODL long term. Getting stuck with a #499 LE rare of a player from a good team that you bought very cheap isn’t the worst thing in the world. Moments that I’d personally be okay holding through the off-season: Brown, Ayton, Barrett, Capela, Brunson (this is just a personal list based on age / expected long-term upside / current floor price of the moments). Add Conley to the list in hope that he retires after the season (and they go deep into the playoffs or even win it all).

I’ll likely be doing some of all four activities, but having multiple good options is probably the best thing you could ask for and not many moments besides these will give you this kind of flexibility.

To the moon!