Fernández and Washington: they sweet talked but the relationship is still a mystery
By: Camila Arostegui
Tags: Argentina, Alberto Fernandez, Imf, 2016 Election, Trump

Alberto Fernández and Donald Trump

When the inauguration of the new president of Argentina, Alberto Fernández is just 4 days away, it is inevitable to wonder how the incoming president will be shaping his international relations. Even though there are already some notions and ideas, the big question is still a mystery: what will be the relationship between the economic team of the future president and the White House? Considering that the debt with the International Monetary Fund is still one of the greatest problems that has to be solved by Alberto’s government and that in the United States is heading to a general election in 2020. On the other hand: who will be the great figure to handle the negotiations between the two countries?

While in the United States President Donald Trump is on his way to face a process of political trial, but still focus on his economic triumphs, which is still the main objective and the field to preserve the most in order to go for re-election in the presidential polls of 2020, Argentina is in suspense before the next inauguration of the future president of the country, Alberto Fernández. He will have many difficult tasks, among which the development of a strong relationship with the White House is, whoever is in charge for the next few years.

That is why Alberto’s team already has an eye on what is happening in Argentina while the other is in Washington, since any changes could directly affect the relationship between the Argentine government and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the organism with which the Fernández administration will have to renegotiate the country’s debt. Unless they go directly to a default situation. Although Alberto’s plans for the IMF are unknown yet, he said he will not ask for the US $ 11,000 million remaining from the Mauricio Macri´s agreement.

“The first rule to comply is to say ‘do not lend me more money and let me develop my economy in order to be able to pay “, explained the future Argentine president on 11/26 when he was asked about his next and firsts moves. Martín Guzmán, a specialist in External debt restructuring, who will be the new Minister of Economy, agreed with this line of thinking.

In consequence, the position taken by the United States towards Argentina will be vital, taking into account that Fernández and Trump’s ideologies are not the most congruent. Both counterparts had a telephone conversation at the end of November where the Republican president apparently congratulated the Argentine for the victory and assured a supportive approach on the negotiation with the IMF: “I have instructed the Fund to work with you. Do not hesitate to call me”, Trump would have said. Although later came a wave of harmful tariffs from Trump´s White House to the Argentine economy.

Last Monday 12/02, without prior notice to the government of Mauricio Macri and while he closes the China one, Trump decided to reset a trade war with Argentina and Brazil. Accordingly, he announced through his Twitter account that he will restore “All Steel and Aluminum that is shipped into the US from those countries”, Trump explained with the excuse that both Latin American countries had devalued their currency in porpoise.

On the other hand, the relationship of both countries is influenced by the next elections in the United States. Firstly by the Democratic Presidential Nomination, which will determine who will oppose Trump’s in the November 2020 generals. Who will Alberto Fernández support? For the moment he needs to hold Donald Trump close, because at least until next year he will continue to be president. But what will happen after renegotiating the debt with the Fund is a mystery. Also considering that at the moment there is no Democratic candidate who has come up with a government proposition strong enough to defeat Donald Trump.

Remember that when it was Mauricio Macri´s election in 2015, he was embraced by former President Barack Obama, who was also present at his inauguration ceremony. Instead, for Alberto´s ceremony, Trump’s White House will send a simple representative. Returning to Macri, he went all for Hillary Clinton in the 2016 elections and he failed, but not even the polls could predict Trump´s victory. Nonetheless, while the republican had the chance of being tough on the Macri´s government, they create a great relationship between each other.

Among all the questions facing the new administration that will arrive soon at the Casa Rosada, many also wonder who will be the person that will work as a link between the United States and Argentina. Even though there was a reunion between the ambassador of America, Edward C. Prado, and Alberto, it does not mean that he will be a vital figure in bilateral relations, especially considering that he had no previous experience in diplomatic or commercial relations, since he served as judge of the Court of Appeals in the United States.

Felipe Solá, whom Alberto Fernández appointed as Minister of Forgein Affairs, is the other representative that could shape the relationship. He have never had diplomatic experience, thus he does not know languages, and because of that he already received and will continue to receive critics and teasing. But that does not mean he can´t be the person in charge of the bilateral conversations, since there are interlocutors, a system that works perfectly. He already joined Alberto in his tour by Europe and Latin America, he was also present at meetings with diplomats and foreign politicians.

This article was already published in spanish in Urgente 24