September 2020 CoupCast Briefing
By: Matt Scott Frank
Tags: Machine Learning, Forecasting, Coup Détat, Mali, Politics

Mali, Sudan and Central African Republic are at the greatest risk of coup this month. Mali is at especially high risk as the country was the site of this year’s first coup this past month.

Iglesia de la Tarraja by Joaquín Torres García

CoupCast is a machine learning based early warning forecasting platform for estimating the risk of illegal leadership turnover each month for every country across the globe. These updates provide insight into technical changes/updates, notable events in the previous month, and a more in-depth overview of what to expect in the new month coming forward.

The official web dashboard for CoupCast can be found here and information regarding the underlying data (REIGN) and updates to our monthly data can be found here.

Feel free to reach out to either myself (mfrank@oneearthfuture.org) or Clayton Besaw (cbesaw@oneearthfuture.org) for any questions regarding our CoupCast platform or analyses contained in the updates

September 2020 CoupCast Report

Data and algorithm updates:

Updated precipitation (SPI) estimates using NOAA’s July 2020 PREC/L release (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.prel.html).

Corrected election dates for the following countries: New Zealand

Added previously missing 2020 election events in the following countries: Singapore, Jamaica

Added final outcome information for the following election events: Guyana, North Macedonia

Regime changes: Mali changed from presidential to transitional military following a successful coup event

Risk forecast overview for September 2020:

Following last month’s successful coup, Mali tops our list of countries most at risk of coup and will likely continue to be in our top ten for at least the next several months. However, CoupCast does see it’s risk decreasing substantially next month before gradually increasing through the end of the year.

The status and direction of talks regarding the country’s political future remain unclear. The military’s transitional council met with the country’s main protest movement this past weekend in order to discuss return to civilian rule, although the meeting got off to a rocky start as the protest movement actually began protesting the meeting at one point.

On September 7, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) gave the military until September 15 to name a transitional civilian government, while they have previously pushed for new elections to be held within one year.

However, others have argued that such quick moves could simply perpetuate many of the problems currently facing Mali and not allow time for the necessary consultation with the protest movement and other elements of Malian civil society.

Meanwhile, the transitional government in Sudan achieved a significant first step towards lowering violence in the country by signing a peace agreement with most rebel groups in the country’s south and west. Although there remains much work to be done in order to ensure the agreement is durable, lowering levels of political violence in the country could also lower the country’s risk of coup.

However, this achievement has coincided with historic flooding that has killed over 100 and displaced thousands. Moreover, the economic effects of the flood threaten to exacerbate the country’s already difficult economic situation.

Meanwhile, both the Central African Republic and Guinea are heading into elections later this year. In the CAR, incumbent President Faustin Archange Touadera is facing former president Francois Bozize as well as former interim leader Catherine Samba-Panza in December elections.

In Guinea, incumbent president Alpha Conde is taking the well-worn path of avoiding term limits by pointing to a new constitution that was passed this year in order to argue the limit was reset. Interestingly, CoupCast sees the country’s risk only rising marginally for the country’s October election and then steadily decreasing thereafter.

Outside the top 10, the Ivory Coast remains a case to watch as the incumbent president Alassane Ouattara has also decided to seek a questionable third term in elections next month after the sudden death of his heir apparent, prime minister Amadou Gon Coulibaly, earlier this year.

Ouattara’s decision sparked large protests, during which several protesters were killed. The situation is raising fears that the country may revert to past levels of political instability and violence seen after a failed coup in 2002 and contested election in 2011.

Looking to global trends for coup risk, we can see that September marks the beginning of an overall downturn in risk that is projected to again rise slightly in December.