I’ve had a gutful
By: Mark Too
Tags: Vaccines, Election 2020, Conspiracy Theorists

Of stupid arguments from people who aren’t stupid

Photo by Siavash Ghanbari on Unsplash

If there’s anything that will bring out the stupid it’s a hotly contested election, followed closely by a global pandemic. Welcome to 2020.

This rant is prompted by several interactions with friends and acquaintances both online and IRL. It’s getting harder to have a good old fashioned argument — you know the kind where you both live in the same reality.

Gutful. I’ve had it up to here ツ_/¯

I like to engage with people who have different views, and I love a good debate. While there’s been plenty of the former in the last few months, there’s not a lot of the latter going on, and it’s getting harder to remain civil about it.

Please, can someone mount a coherent argument, backed by evidence that can’t be debunked in 30secs, that doesn’t resort to “you need to get out of your bubble” (oh the irony), or “you can’t trust them they are just captured by Big Pharma/Big Tech/Evil Democrats/MSM”.

The truly frustrating part is that there are interesting points to debate, but we can’t get to them without accepting some basic truths first — and yes there are basic truths to accept. Discussing whether the virus is real or did Biden really win the election is tedious. These are easily verifiable facts, they are not my opinion and I don’t have to claim to be “right”. Are the various lockdown strategies necessary and proportionate responses is far more interesting. Spoiler — I think in many cases they were over the top, even if they worked. Why did 70M+ people vote for a man so devoid of positive character is interesting. Spoiler — I don’t think it’s because they are all racist white supremacist's. These are matters of opinion, and opinions are perfect to debate (preferably backed by logic and data). If you think Trump should have been given another 4yrs, I’m genuinely interested to know and understand why. If you want to spend time arguing that he actually did win, I’m bored already.

You, my friends, are all smarter than that. And if you bothered to ask, you would probably find we have a lot in common.

For example, it’s true big pharma really can’t be trusted, big tech really don’t have your best interests at heart, the Democrats are run by a bunch of elites that have far more in common with billionaires than the working class, and I think SJW’s really are a danger to free speech and debate.

You may be surprised to learn that I’d call myself a libertarian if the term hadn’t been twisted to mean “I have every right to intimidate you with my gun while blowing smoke in your face at a restaurant” — by people that vote for a party that’s claims to fame include restricting women’s rights over their bodies, opposition to gay marriage, and an ongoing war on (other people’s) drugs. My version respects other people’s rights as much as my own. Don’t get me started.

You may be surprised to learn that I have a lot more form as a contrarian than you do. In 30 years I’ve spent less than 4 on other people’s payrolls, and in both cases I did it after they acquired my company. I work for myself, I create, I take risks (that haven’t always worked out), and when I do work for others it’s as a contractor on my terms. To my left leaning friends, don’t jump on me just yet — I’m a firm believer in universal healthcare and access to quality education, and more controversially, that nobody needs or should have a billion dollars — but the reality is I’m an entrepreneur capitalist, and anyone who assumes I’m just another bleeding-heart lefty can fuck right off.

I started down that path though by necessity rather than choice — I was simply unemployable in my 20’s thanks to my conspicuous political activity.

Long before social media virtue signaling was a thing, I was busy old school campaigning for drug law reform. I’m a founding member of the HEMP party in Australia and early board member of the Victorian Drug Law Reform Foundation (where my straight from Seattle grunge look contrasted starkly with QC’s, doctors and advertising execs). No country had legal cannabis at the time, even for medicinal use, and majority public opinion was clearly against reform. For an added level of difficulty we also advocated for heroin injecting rooms, something that saved lives immediately but is still unpopular today. These things have only happened because people like me took real risks. I led rallies, challenged rivals and politicians in the media, and was arrested for it more than once. My mates and I financed operations running underground raves, and took advantage of quirks in liquor licensing rules to throw crazy pop up gigs that drove the local publicans and liquor licensing police to campaign for responsible service laws (sorry about that).

When Australia imprisoned communist leader Albert Langer for daring to challenge the two party system, I ran for federal parliament myself on the same platform using the same “illegal” how to vote cards. Now Albert was an interesting guy to debate, but he was never going to convince me to become a commie. I risked another arrest to support his right to try.

So the keyboard warriors who claim I’m captured by the mainstream media because I can’t see election fraud can fuck right off. What the fuck have you done to challenge the status quo? Reading Breitbart and trolling on FB aint it*.

But I don’t really want you to fuck right off. I like you guys, and I like that not everyone I know is the same as me. I’d be seriously bored if they were.

So here’s some tips, from someone who learnt early on that to challenge a mainstream opinion or accepted wisdom you need to make a bit of an effort. You have to back up your claims with actual and verifiable facts, not cherry picked data, hearsay and the ravings of the world’s biggest narcissist. You need to make a case based on solid logic. If you are going to claim that nothing the FDA, the various election boards, or the scientific community in general can be trusted, then you have to back that up with specific examples relating to your case.

You are going to have to do that because you are fighting an uphill battle, at least when you pop your head up into the mainstream. If you can’t do that, I’m sorry, but people who don’t know you so well are going to think you are an idiot.

Be skeptical, challenge the norms, follow the money, and bring on the debate, I sure as hell do. But back it up.

Covid-19 is real, obviously, and it was not man-made, is not part of a global conspiracy to advance vaccines, big pharma, and Bill Gate’s implants. Actually if there is a conspiracy (there’s not), then it could be how it’s been used as an opportunity to advance a range of right-wing causes.

If you think otherwise, prove it. It’s not up to me to prove it to you, I’m on the side of a clear scientific consensus, the majority, the mainstream. If you want to be a contrarian, learn to walk the walk. If your “evidence” is discredited, discard it and start again. Don’t be so fucking intellectually lazy — trust me, anyone worth arguing with has seen most of it before and knows where and how to debunk it quickly. Anyone worth debating does not live in a bubble, and contrary to what you’ve heard, we don’t get all our news from CNN (does anyone actually watch CNN?).

One friend claimed that Covid is overblown because 1.7M people die of HIV every year, when the very first Google result proves he just has comprehension problems. If you are going to do that, it would also help if you knew that people don’t die of HIV, they die of AIDs, and that it’s completely fucking irrelevant anyway because you can’t catch HIV from being near someone who sneezes in a restaurant! Unfortunately it wasn’t the first time I’ve heard the comparison.

I’ve also heard a few opine that nobody had been able to explain why if it’s so deadly do we need to stick a swab halfway inside our heads to find it —and follow up with the testing isn’t 100% reliable, can’t be trusted, and is designed to produce false positives. If it were me designing a test that would come up with millions of false positives to pump up the numbers I would have made it a lot easier to administer, but let’s leave that alone. I haven’t looked into the biochemistry behind the tests and I don’t need to. Multiple private and government labs, all independent from each other, have come up with tests for the virus that have similar limitations. It’s just the limits of the technology we have right now. It’s all published in any case, and “I don’t understand it” isn’t a valid reason to dismiss the work of thousands of actual experts. I do have some experience with the statistics used in evaluating tests, but it’s not necessary, there are thousands of people much better at it than me that have done the work for us. TLDR: the tests are of course not 100% reliable, but they are good enough.

Others claim the death rates are exaggerated, based on what they don’t realise is cherry picked US CDC data shared widely on Facebook. The CDC itself has explained why it’s false, and that the real number is an excess death rate of 300K people in the first 10 months of the year, and on track for 400K. One tried to claim when that was pointed out that it could be a coincidence. FFS have a genuine crack at it if you want to play the game! Btw the death rate is actually the only statistic I have a lot of faith in — it’s tracked carefully and transparently in all developed nations, and the tests for death are definitely 100% accurate. Causes of death may slightly less accurate, but you can safely assume that when the rate is up significantly in the months corresponding to a pandemic that the two are somewhat linked. And remember, even in the “freedom or death” US there have been lockdowns, mask wearing and social distancing. It could have been much worse. For comparison, seasonal flu kills 40–60K per year in the US, a number that’s actually inflated because unlike most other countries, the US counts anyone who died with flu as dying from flu. Claims that Covid is no more deadly than the flu are complete and easily demonstrated bullshit.

If you are going to claim that your Google foo has led you to know more than all of the actual experts, at least demonstrate some advanced use of the search engine. The truth is out there (more often than not on the first page).

Yeah yeah I know, I’m just a sucker that believes everything the man publishes, stuck in the filter big search wants me to see. Actually if it’s anything I think is controversial I will read as much as I can, and dig down to the original sources where possible, but that’s not the point. Can you actually prove any of it wrong? Remember, the onus is on you fellow contrarian.

So, yes we are in the middle of a pandemic, with a virus that is quite a bit more deadly than the flu, and a lot easier to catch than HIV. Most of us are looking forward to the release of vaccines. Most, but not everyone of course.

Vaccines have been around a long time, billions of people have been vaccinated, and the absolute majority of experts (and just about everyone else) agrees they are important enough to justify the low risks (which is different to claiming they are 100% safe, which no one does — the risks are not hidden). If you are the 1% who thinks otherwise, then you are going to need more than some anecdotes about autism and pseudo-science from a chiropractor to back it up. People have been trying to discredit vaccines for a long time, the arguments are well-known, and they have fallen flat for a reason — they just don’t stack up.

Again, if you have something new to add to it, go for your life. I’m listening. Again, it’s up to you to prove you know better than scientific consensus. Be the next Galileo, make yourself famous.

If you just don’t like the idea; hate being coerced into taking medicine you don’t want; or just think it’s not necessary — then just say so. I know a few people that just won’t use microwave ovens, and I personally don’t trust that anything as complex as a 100 story building can be built safely despite plenty of evidence to the contrary. I’m not going up there and you can’t make me. Of course, nobody anywhere is actually advocating for forced vaccinations except perhaps your straw man.

Note, this doesn’t mean I support big pharma, or have blind trust in the regulators. Far from it. I’ve looked into it, and I’m not comfortable at all taking the first generation of Covid vaccines. But that’s not just me, experts in the field and even the “lefty” media you so despise will tell you the same thing. I will reassess when they have been properly peer reviewed, and millions of early adopters have done the testing for me. Mind you, if I have to take one to get on a plane and visit my parents, I’ll do it — I understand that society is bigger than me, and sometimes sacrifices have to be made to be a part of it. Maybe you are just a lot more important and can mount a case on that. Failing that just borrow a private jet — you can bypass just about every rule for the proletariat in your own plane. Don’t get me started.

Moving away from science, we have everyone’s other pet topic of the year, the US election, clearly and decisively won by Joe Biden.

Controversial statement I know. But all of the election officials, the courts, and the legislators in the relevant states have confirmed the election counts were valid. And then it’s been backed up by recounts, and more recounts. And then it’s been backed up by the courts. And of course many of the aforementioned officials, legislators, and judges are Republican or Republican appointed — including quite a few judges right up to the Supreme Court appointed by Trump himself.

“Stop the steal” stories rely on a conspiracy to substitute thousands of votes (tens of thousands in some cases) in multiple states in both Democrat and Republican control. That’s a tough sell, and you really are going to have to try harder to convince anyone outside the cheer squad that the election was stolen. Seriously, stop the steal is nothing more than a Trump campaign fundraiser. The list of lawsuits, with links to primary sources, and to the backgrounds of the judges is all right here. You will notice the majority have been dismissed rather than ruled on — because they don’t have the legal basis to even be heard. If you have found “evidence” that didn’t make it to any of these frivolous lawsuits it must be very flimsy indeed.

Or perhaps it’s not the actual evidence but some statistical analysis or margins you didn’t expect indicate fraud must be involved. Sorry, but that’s been debunked too. I’m actually pretty familiar with Benford’s Law myself, and knew already that vote counts are one of the few areas where it doesn’t directly apply — but don’t take it from me, there are far nerdier people who live and breath it.

We are witnessing a very deliberate PR campaign, not a legal battle. And you know what, if the Democrats really are sophisticated enough to pull all that off, in front of teams of Republican appointed officials and observers, without creating a shred of evidence that stands up in court, maybe they deserve the win. They snuck it past the feds, and even Trump’s own Attorney General. That’s pretty fucking impressive in my book. Maybe even tougher to pull off than a fake moon landing. If you do find real evidence you may not have long to live, so please do share it quickly.

You want an America First approach, or as a non-American, just want them to stay the fuck out of your patch — I get it. You don’t like the Democrats and/or Biden, I get it. You really don’t like SJW’s and just want to stick it to them — I get it, they annoy me too. Actually supporting Trump himself I don’t get, but obviously people do. Yeah I know he annoys the crap out of all those radical lefties you haven’t met** but really don’t like — but so does Mitch McConnel, and Jorden Peterson, and even the very bland Scott Morrison —it’s not that difficult, and there will be another right-wing blowhard you can get behind before you know it.

What I really don’t get is how so many people can‘t just recognise that he lost, as almost universally predicted he would. If it was an upset or a tight contest, I might get it, but it was expected and comprehensive. Trump did win an upset in 2016, with the same electoral college votes but tighter margins and a loss in the popular vote. Democrats cried themselves to sleep for months, and you had your time to enjoy it. Hopefully you noticed that they quickly accepted defeat and moved on, just like they did in 2000 when the election actually was stolen.

The 2020 election is done, the show’s over, Biden won, BY A LOT. Nobody is telling you that you have to like it. Trump will never grow up, but carrying on like a spoilt 5yr old actually works for him so he doesn’t have to. The rest of us can and should move on to more interesting discussions.

Please.

*With apologies to my friends the gonzo journalist and the fisherman physics guru — you are true revolutionaries and I have much respect. I think maybe your need to explain everything is leading to some short cuts.

**Because there’s just not that many of them, and they are all too busy Tweeting about pronouns to come and lecture you about Marxism down at the pub. Don’t get me started.