Six Wrong Predictions Reported By the New York Times
By: Massùod Hemmat
Tags: The New York Times, Predictions, Journalism, Technology, Politics

The New York Times is one of the prominent American daily newspapers with millions of readers in the US and across the globe.

During his tenure as the President of the United States, Donald Trump attacked the New York Times and other media outlets, consistently labeling them “fake news.” In contrast to his remarks, the New York Times has won 130 Pulitzer Prizes — more than any other newspaper. Established in 1851, it has been an influential newspaper in the US and around the world for decades. It’s known as a national “newspaper of record,” based on the Encyclopedia Britannica.

While acknowledging the New York Times’ reputation and credibility, I shed light upon six predictions reported by this newspaper that are untrue now. These predictions were made about Airplanes & Flying, Laptops, Apple & iPhone, Twitter, Television, and Automobiles.

1. On Flying: We won’t be able to fly in millions of years

On October 09, 1903, the New York Times published a piece about the future of flying titled “THE FLYING MACHINES THAT DO NOT FLY,” which stated:

“… it might be assumed that the flying machine which will really fly might be evolved by the combined and continuous efforts of mathematicians and mechanicians in from one million to ten million years — provided, of course, we can meanwhile eliminate such little drawbacks and embarrassments as the existing relation between weight and strength in inorganic materials.”

On December 17, 1903, the Wright brothers flew their first airplane.

A decade ago, how many of us thought that producing flying cars might be a myth? Now, we not only have flying cars but also flying Gravity Jets, or let’s say flying humans.

What’s next?

Photo by Natali Quijano on Unsplash

2. On Laptop computers: No one would be interested in a Laptop

A New York Times article from 1985 discussed that few people would be interested in carrying a personal computer and laptop. The article titled “THE EXECUTIVE COMPUTER” states:

“On the whole, people don’t want to lug a computer with them to the beach or on a train to while away hours they would rather spend reading the sports or business section of the newspaper… the real future of the laptop computer will remain in the specialized niche markets. Because no matter how inexpensive the machines become, and no matter how sophisticated their software, I still can’t imagine the average user taking one along when going fishing.”

As of February 2019, over 70% of the US households had either a laptop or a desktop computer at home. Laptop computers continue to shrink in size but become more powerful in terms of capacity. “The first floppy disk, introduced in 1971, had a capacity of 79.7 kB” Now, even a Notepad file is larger than 80 kilobytes. Are kilobytes still relevant?

Don’t you take your laptop along when going fishing? Forget about notebooks; our mobile phones, tablets, and other similar devices are more accessible now — they’re more portable, personal, and closer to our hearts and EYES.

Photo by Campaign Creators on Unsplash

3. On Apple and iPhones: They will never succeed | They will never have a phone either

Apple was established in 1976. Two decades later, the New York Times wrote that Apple would fail, quoting a Forrester Research analyst:

“Whether they stand alone or are acquired, Apple as we know it is cooked. It’s so classic. It’s so sad.”

A decade later, in 2006, another article reported that Apple might never produce a cell phone:

“Everyone’s always asking me when Apple will come out with a cell phone. My answer is, ‘Probably never.’” David Pogue, The New York Times.

Apple released its iPhone in 2007. Since then, 2.2 billion iPhones have been sold. And Apple? It’s the most valuable brand in the world as of 2020.

Photo by Neil Soni on Unsplash

4. On Twitter: Only the illiterate might use it

A New York Times article discussed the emergence of Twitter in which a reference to Bruce Sterling’s earlier remarks on Twitter was also made. He is The New York Times’ best-selling science-fiction writer and journalist. In 2006, he was with the idea that Twitter would not be prominent amongst the intellectuals, but only the illiterate might use it:

“Using Twitter for literate communication is about as likely as firing up a CB radio and hearing some guy recite ‘The Iliad.’” — Bruce Sterling, The New York Times.

President Donald Trump has tweeted over 17000 tweets only through the first two-and-a-half years of his presidency — and the most literate people have retweeted it. As of 2018, Twitter has had over “321 million monthly active users.” Many politicians, celebrities, intellectuals, and other highbrows use it too.

Unlike the prediction made in 2007, it’s only the illiterate that cannot use Twitter, as it’s hard to say so many things in a few characters.

Photo by MORAN on Unsplash

5. On Television: It will not be a competitor of broadcasting, and people will not have time to watch it

In 1939, a New York Times article suggested that people won’t have time to watch television. For this reason, it cannot compete with other forms of media such as newspapers and radio.

The article narrates:

“The problem with television is that the people must sit and keep their eyes glued on a screen; the average American family hasn’t time for it.”

Based on a 2019 estimate, “307.3 million people ages 2 and older live in US TV households.” Now, you can watch the TV even in the toilet. You don’t need to carry your TV, but your phone or tablet.

But there is one thing: Newspapers are not gone. Over 69% of the US population still read newspapers. Based on Forbes, print remains the most common medium, with 81 percent reading this format.

According to studies, 2.5 billion people read print newspapers daily.

What happened to the TV industry? As of 2015, “An estimated 1.57 billion households around the world owned at least one TV set.” Since more people typically live in a household, billions of people watch TV every day — more than those who read newspapers.

Photo by Dave Weatherall on Unsplash

6. On High-Speed Automobiles: We won’t be able to drive over 80 miles per hour

Reporting on the dangers of high-speed driving, a New York Times article suggested that our brains cannot guide a car with any speed over 80 miles per hour. It reported a debate between two experts that took place in Paris in 1904.

The article says:

“It remains to be proved how fast the brain is capable of traveling […] If it cannot acquire an eight-mile per hour speed, then an auto running at the rate of 80 miles per hour is running without the guidance of the brain, and the many disastrous results are not to be marveled at.”

In 1894, Benz Velo had 12 mph (20 km/h). In 1904, it was claimed that no speed over 80 mph is plausible. In 2017, Koenigsegg Agera RS was produced with a production speed of 277.87 mph (447.19 km/h).

In Germany, there are no speed limits on most highways.