NBA Predictions, Tiers, and 2020-21 Season Preview
By: Brandon Anderson
Tags: Basketball, Sports, Future, NBA, Culture

2020-21 NBA CHAMPIONSHIP TIERS

This is not necessarily how the regular season rankings will come out — we’ll get back to that. But at the end of the day, each team has different hopes and expectations. Here’s how I see each team’s playoffs and title hopes heading into the new season, and the tier title should fill in the blanks…

TIER VIII — THE SHAMELESS TANKERS

30. Cleveland Cavaliers

29. Oklahoma City Thunder

28. New York Knicks

27. Charlotte Hornets

Expect the tanking to get very bad in the second half of the year. This is a really strong draft class, and there are no fans in the stands to discourage the tanking. These teams are going to be really bad, and with no incentive to try otherwise, they could be REALLY bad down the stretch.

Cade Cunningham awaits.

TIER VII — NO PLAYOFFS THIS YEAR

26. Sacramento Kings

25. Minnesota Timberwolves

24. Atlanta Hawks

23. Detroit Pistons

22. Memphis Grizzlies

There’s a lot of youth movement in the right direction on these squads, but the playoffs ain’t happening this year. Best case scenario might be a one-and-done play-in game loss, and I don’t even see that in these teams’ futures.

Youth means bumps along the way, and growth is not linear. Sometimes it means a step forward is followed by a step or two back before another leap. The Kings learned that the hard way last year, and the Grizz are next in line.

The Hawks are the team everyone is overrating. They can improve a long way and still be very mediocre, and the defense will be bad. These teams should be fun to watch, and there are brighter days ahead, but not in 2021.

TIER VI — PLAY-IN CONTENDERS

21. Chicago Bulls

20. San Antonio Spurs

19. Washington Wizards

18. Orlando Magic

17. New Orleans Pelicans

I know, I’m more excited about most of the teams in the previous tier too, but these are the ones I’m expecting in the play-in games. Pop will do his thing with the Spurs, and the Magic will be the definition of vanilla and mediocre again. The Bulls should be vastly improved with competent coaching, and Russ and Brad are too good for Washington to not be decent.

The Pelicans feel somewhere stuck in the middle of everything, and I fear a lot more downside than upside with this strange team construct. Bledsoe, Lonzo, Zion, and Adams is a whole lot of non shooting, and I expect an Ingram shooting regression too. The NBA is giving us a whole lot of Zion this regular season, but if we get the Pels in the playoffs too, he will have to be the reason.

TIER V — EXTREMELY DISAPPOINTING SEASONS

16. Houston Rockets

15. Utah Jazz

14. Miami Heat

13. Golden State Warriors

I have no idea what to do with the Rockets right now, so let’s just stick them in the middle.

The Jazz smell like disappointment. Every key player on that team is on the wrong side of the aging curve except Donovan Mitchell, and he hasn’t really shown significant improvement since a great rookie year. The Heat feel like a step back too with a worn down Jimmy Butler coming off a long run. Miami was the right team at the right time in the bubble, but unless they have a big trade coming, this is a lower tier East playoff team. The Heat and Jazz are 7-seeds for me, and I think either one of them could get knocked out in the play-in games.

The Warriors get the benefit of the doubt here at the top of this tier, but I really see them a tier down and even that feels somewhat optimistic. This just isn’t the same team. Durant, Klay, Iggy, and Livingston are gone from the core, and Draymond and Steph are two years older and past their primes. Oubre is fine, but I don’t trust Wiseman, Wiggins, or anyone else. This team lacks shooting and severely lacks basketball IQ and feel. I see a one-man offense and a one-man defense. This just isn’t a top team anymore.

TIER IV — SECOND ROUND EXPECTATIONS

12. Phoenix Suns

11. Indiana Pacers

10. Portland Trail Blazers

9. Boston Celtics

I love Portland and Indiana as surprise regular season teams but don’t like their playoff upside quite as much. A top-4 seed and a playoff series win would be a really nice outcome for both, and I think either or both of them could contend for as high as the 2-seed. The Pacers have a really strong five-man lineup and some obvious potential for improvement if Nate Bjorkgren unlocks a few things, and Portland vastly improves their forward and big man rotation. Those are two of my favorite overs.

I like but don’t love Phoenix. I think they’re now something like Portland was the last few years, a solid clear playoff team but one that probably isn’t super threatening there unless they catch a few breaks. That’s still a huge step forward, but the future is still years away for this team. Chris Paul’s job is not to get the Suns to the Finals. It’s to establish a winning mentality.

Boston is the Golden State of this group. I have all the respect in the world for Brad Stevens and expect a big step forward for Jaylen Brown and another smaller step for Jayson Tatum. But Kemba Walker is increasingly worrying, and I don’t trust the Celtics depth at all. Feels like this year’s 76ers to me, a team that we can never really count out but never really comes together.

TIER III — CONFERENCE FINALS UPSIDE

8. Toronto Raptors

7. Dallas Mavericks

6. Denver Nuggets

5. Philadelphia 76ers

Now we’re talking. Any one of these teams could finish as the 1-seed and I wouldn’t be too surprised. Why is everyone overlooking the Raptors again? Gasol and Ibaka weren’t even healthy last year, Siakam and Anunoby will be better, and the Raptors have Nurse, Ujiri, depth, and culture. I’m not sure there’s deep playoff potential there, but you do not want to be the team that has to give them the knockout punch.

Dallas and Denver got next, but I think they may have to wait out one or two more LA windows. That Jamal Murray leap in the bubble looks real, and if he contends for All-NBA, Denver has to be taken very seriously. Dallas will go as far as Luka takes them — but going from no playoff series wins to the Conference Finals is a big ask.

Philly gets the top ranking in the tier based on potential, though I’m the least confident in them. This roster makes sense now. Love Ben Simmons with more spacing, love Seth Curry as a movement shooter under Doc, love Tyrese Maxey as a rookie super sub off the bench. I’m intrigued, like every year. Will they finally pay it off? I’m skeptical.

TIER II — THEY COULD WIN THIS THING…?

4. Milwaukee Bucks

3. Brooklyn Nets

These are the clear top teams in the East come playoff time for me, but both have serious question marks. The Bucks have done little to answer my questions from the last two years. I love Jrue Holiday, and he’s better at a lot of the things Eric Bledsoe was already good at. Milwaukee’s defense will be even better. But this team still lacks a bit of creativity and playmaking and a lot of shooting, and I still only see three guys I want in my crunch time lineup. The Bucks will have all the metrics again like usual, but has Bud learned anything and is Giannis enough? I might have to see to believe at this point.

The Nets are my East favorite, and by a decent margin if they stay healthy. Kevin Durant is first pick for players you want in the East playoffs if he’s 90% of what he was before, and Kyrie Irving is probably still third. And personally, I hope they don’t trade for Harden. I love the versatility and depth with LeVert, Dinwiddie, Harris, Allen, and the others there. The offense will be great with KD, Kryie, and Nash’s coaching crew. The question is how much defense this team can play, and we may not really find out until the playoffs. This team reeks of 2019–20 LA Clippers, where we have to sort of imagine them all year until the playoffs. Let’s hope we get an answer eventually.

TIER II — THE FAVORITES

2. Los Angeles Lakers

1. Los Angeles Clippers

It’s just LA and LA at the top, and yes, I have them in that order.

Somehow, everyone has decided that a relatively easy Lakers title run retroactively made them far better than the rest of the league last year. Those same pundits think Dennis Schroder and Montrezl Harrell are great improvements that won the offseason for the Lakers, even though neither may even fit a crunch time lineup.

Look, LeBron and Brow are brilliant, and as long as LA has those two, they’re a favorite. But I never liked the rest of the roster last year and still don’t care for it. Marc Gasol is a great addition if they need to play Jokic or Embiid but otherwise shouldn’t play big minutes. Harrell shouldn’t be out there when things matter. Schroder is a downgrade from the version or Rondo we got in the playoffs, and by a wide margin. Wes Matthews is more washed than Danny Green. The Lakers are obvious title contenders, but there are exactly two reasons why. The rest of the roster remains full of question marks.

The Clippers are the much more rounded team on paper, but paper doesn’t win games, as they learned the hard way. I’m not ready to count them out after a bubble where nearly everything possible went wrong. Kawhi had terrible games at the wrong time and didn’t look healthy. PG clearly wasn’t healthy, physically or otherwise. Patrick Beverley was hurt and limited. Harrell never found himself in the bubble. Lou Will was a distraction. The chemistry was all wrong. And still they came one win away from the WCF, even despite all that. That’s a pretty strong worst case scenario, if you ask me.

This year’s Clippers are better. PG should be far healthier and isn’t coming off offseason shoulder surgery. Ibaka over Harrell is a big improvement in crunch time. Kennard is a shooting weapon the team didn’t have. Morris is there all season now and gives the team a set of versatile wings no one else can match and a deep set of defensive options to throw at LeBron, Giannis, and Durant in the biggest games. And there’s still another move to be made when they trade Lou Williams for a point guard and grab another center on the buyout market.

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, and you’re the Clippers.

Clippers-Nets Finals. Kawhi and KD. Let’s do this… ■