Bahamas Bowl Betting Preview
Tags: Sportsbetting, Collegefootball

Toledo and Middle Tennessee head to Nassau to kick off the bowl season.

Bahamas Bowl

Middle Tennessee (6–6) vs Toledo (7–5)

Friday, Noon, ESPN

Toledo -10/Total 51.5

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Bowl season kicks off with the only bowl game to not take place on American soil as Toledo and Middle Tennessee get the enviable spot of a trip to Nassau. Toledo had ambitions of a MAC Championship, but it never came close to materializing, but the Rockets beat up on three MAC bottom feeders at the end of the season to end on a three-game win streak. Middle Tennessee rallied to finish the season 4–2 getting bowl eligible in the season finale with a come from behind win over Florida Atlantic.

Toledo wants to run the ball, run the ball and then run the ball some more. The Rockets average 192.9 yards per game on the ground, rank 13th in the country in yards per carry at 5.29 yards per rush and are third in the country in EPA per rush. Bryant Koback is the nation’s 11th leading rusher running for 1,274 yards this season and quarterback Dequan Finn is a capable runner putting up 418 yards on the ground. Finn isn’t quite accurate throwing the ball, but he keeps his turnovers down. His completion percentage is a shade under 60 percent on the season, but he only threw one interception and sixteen touchdowns so at least when he does complete passes they go to his receivers. Aside from an outlier against Eastern Michigan, the Toledo defense was reliably good this year. The Rockets defense was 20th in defensive SP+ and 31st in Football Outsider’s defensive efficiency and they’re 11th in EPA allowed per play on defense. It’s a remarkably solid unit.

Middle Tennessee only does one thing extremely well and that’s take the ball away on defense. The Blue Raiders forced two more turnovers than Iowa and Cincinnati in one fewer game played. They were second in the country in defensive turnover percentage. 19.2 percent of opposing offensive drives ended in turnovers. Their statistics are inflated a little bit because of that. They’re 27th in pass efficiency defense because of the 16 interceptions they forced, but they’re also 84th in yards allowed and gave up 21 touchdown passes which is a middle of the road number. They’re decent enough against the run, ranking in the top 40 in yards allowed, yards per rush, but they’re roughly in the middle of FBS at 66th in EPA per rush allowed. Middle Tennessee is on its third and fourth quarterbacks of the season. Bailey Hockman started the season, but decided to leave the sport altogether after three games. He was replaced by Chase Cunningham who suffered a season-ending injury in late October. Nick Vattiato was the third MTSU quarterback to start a game, but he was replaced by Nick DiLiello in the season finale against FAU. Somehow, they’re a better passing team than running team despite all the issues at quarterback. Middle Tennessee is 106th in the country in rushing and 121st in EPA per rush this season.

Situationally this game favors Toledo which is why the spread is where it is. Overall, they’re a better team on defense and Middle Tennessee’s biggest strength on defense, forcing turnovers, should be negated by the fact that nobody is better in all of FBS at protecting the football. The Rockets are first in the country in offensive turnover rate, turning the ball over on just 3.8 percent of their drives this year. The location favors Toledo as well. The Bahamas Bowl has seen some windy games in the past and Friday should be no different with wind gusts up to 28 miles per hour expected which should make throwing the ball challenging. If Toledo limits their mistakes, they rank last in FBS in penalties per game, and doesn’t have any disasters in the kicking game, they’re 101st in the country in special teams SP+, this is a game that should favor Toledo who can get their first bowl win since 2015.