When Machines Outsmart Humans. 20 years ago Nick Bostrom published…
By: Tyreek Gaynor-Fray
Tags: Covid 19, Inequality, Artificial Intelligence, K Shaped Recovery, Machine Intelligence

Preface

One score ago, Nick Bostrom published “When Machines Outsmart Humans,” an ex ante commentary on the future impact of artificial super-intelligence on humanity. I share my thoughts on his essay because it is one of the most renowned in the AI ethics discussion.

To begin, his essay foresees a reality where machines possess significant influence and control over human life. He expands on Moore’s law which states, “the number of components on an integrated circuit would double every year.” Bostrom expects this to translate into the growth of a super-intelligence whose capabilities are limitless and plenary. He writes, “the speed of artificial intelligence will double at least every two years leading to the singularity.” The singularity is the moment an artificial super-intelligence crosses the threshold of human intelligence permanently. In addition, he asserts there are four immediate ramifications caused by a super-AI:

Once one is created, it can be easily copied. Human level artificial intelligence quickly leads to greater-than-human level artificial intelligence. Technological progress in other fields will be accelerated by the arrival of artificial intelligence. Artificial intelligences are potential independent agents.

Therefore, he purports these implications are imminent and the emergence of a super-intelligence would be poised to disrupt large portions of society. The arguments below expand on the most well-founded and pertinent reasons for Bostrom’s concerns.

Opening Statements

Arthur Clarke has said, “any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.” Modern humans are at the cusp of conjuring magic beyond any conceivable force known to date. This force is artificial super-intelligence. Artificial super-intelligence, the zenith of computer science, is a man-made program with intellectual powers beyond those of the smartest, skillful, most inventive humans. Currently, nascent forms of this technology have demonstrated adeptness for human tasks. For instance, artificial intelligences have bested us at chess, reading comprehension, and predicting patient outcomes. Bostrom is concerned this technology can have irreparable effects on society. He warned the creation of an artificial super-intelligence would be the beginning of humankind’s obsolescence. On the other hand, his polemics argue this technology would be a boon milestone in human progress. In my opinion, we should be concerned about an artificial super-intelligence because unlike past technological revolutions, an artificial super-intelligence is capable of disrupting all facets of life and has the power to become an omnipresent force in determining human progress.

Artificial super-intelligence, the zenith of computer science, is a man-made program with intellectual powers beyond those of the smartest, skillful, most inventive humans.

Disrupting the Workforce

To begin, we are already noticing the displacement of humans by simple machines. More than 25% of jobs in the United States are experiencing high levels of disruption due to automation. Likewise, 37% of workers are worried about losing their jobs directly because of automation. There are potentially more losses to come through the development of self-driving automobiles. Jobs related to driving employ over 7 million people in the U.S. Immediately, the creation of autonomous cars and trucks would displace these careers. Additionally, contrary to widespread belief, artificial intelligence is not limited to blue collar workers — it also affects white collar workers. Kai-Fu Lee, one of the most renowned technologists in China said, “artificial intelligence is about to supplant many millions of the country’s office workers.” He continued, “Law firms might need fewer paralegals, for instance, if machines can quickly and efficiently search through thousands of documents in researching a case.” As a result, from law clerks to news anchors and more, the destructiveness of an artificial super-intelligence would leave few survivors.

Artificial intelligence is not limited to blue collar workers — it affects white collar workers as well.

Driving Inequality: A Force of Divergence

Moreover, an artificial super-intelligence could create perpetual class division. When a machine has the ability to optimize tasks more efficiently than human labor, the apropos question becomes, “why do we need people?” To put this in perspective, consider the typical multinational corporation employing thousands of people. In the company, there are the workers who are paid by salary, and the executives who are paid by salary and stock (ownership in the company). When an executive presents the income statement to shareholders, the largest expense is often payroll. The executives want to lessen their expenses and increase profit so the stock price increases and they earn more income. One day, an artificial intelligence is pitched to the executives. The artificial intelligence is more skillful, diligent and cost-friendly than most employees. So the executives fire their employees and integrate the artificial intelligence. All of a sudden, thousands of people are unemployed without career transferability, while the organization and its shareholders continue to thrive from the increased profitability. Referencing Karl Marx, the “proletariat” (those who must be present at their work to earn and not given company ownership) are displaced, while the “bourgeoisie” (those who own the means of production and the company’s properties) continue to prosper from the AI’s productivity increases without needing significant human resources.

The consequences of widespread automation are already conspicuous; in America, the world’s petri dish, we are experiencing a more stark decoupling of productivity from employment than ever before. As seen in the diagram below, the rate of employment has begun to divert from the increase in yearly Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Such a phenomenon continues to increase the gap between the rich and the poor, between the powerful and the powerless, and accelerates injustice and inequality.

Selective Pressures

Furthermore, the emergence of inequality, as a consequence of artificial super-intelligence, would be a fundamental threat to our species. In biology, there is a form of natural selection known as disruptive selection. In a species experiencing disruptive selection, the extremes are favored over the average in the population. For example, in an oyster population, light-colored oysters would blend into the rocks in the shallows, and the darkest would blend better into the shadows. The ones in the intermediate range would show up against either backdrop, offering those oysters no advantage and make them easier prey. Thus, with fewer of the medium individuals surviving to reproduce, the population eventually has more oysters colored to either extreme of the spectrum. I am confident this is occurring in homo sapiens, with artificial intelligence acting amongst the selective forces. Eventually, two groups will remain in society — people who own the machines (and the productivity increases of the machines) through capital, and people who the machines replace. In the diagram below, the right panel is where I believe we are heading today. An aspect of this divergence is elucidated through the ‘K’ shaped recovery during the COVID-19 pandemic. The rate of return on income from capital is outpacing the rate of return on income from labor. The prosperous (“bourgeoisie”), who primarily derive their wealth from capital income (ex. rights to owning the AI, equities and other instruments) continue to outpace most of society (“proletariat”) who must compete against more efficient and productive intellectual machines.

This does not mean humans will cease to exist, but the way we survive will need to adapt. In the ideal society, we see a stabilizing socio-economic selection.

Humans will not cease to exist, but the way we survive will need to adapt.

We would prefer to see this in a stable society.

Balancing It Out

There are unwarranted concerns in the discussion on AI. For instance, some argue artificial intelligence cannot merely be a tool — this is not true. We are the creators of these intellects; therefore, we have the ultimate power to decide the extent of its reach. Should humans be prudent and collectively decide to halt progress below the threshold of “human intelligence,” then this worry is negated. Second, defining intelligence is conceptually tedious. For example, one person might have more spatial intelligence, but less social intelligence, and so we are unable to line up all humans in strict order of intelligence. The same logic can be applied when measuring the machines — the intelligence of a “super-intelligence” is difficult to objectively define. Moreover, others portend a future where the human spirit is vitiated. Although I agree artificial intelligence will assert a strong presence in society, I do not agree our worth becomes inane. Rather, it is likely many of us will be displaced in the short-term, consequently triggering acute economic maladies; but in the long-term, the nature of our lives will tailor to the novel demands of the new social order. For instance, during the Industrial Revolution many tasks in the weaving process were automated; this prompted workers to focus on the things a machines could not do, such as operations. Therefore, it is possible a similar occurrence can occur through the integration of artificial super-intelligence.

The concept of intelligence is very nuanced. The intelligence of a “super-intelligence” would be difficult to objectively define.

Closing

All in all, we must approach the development of super-AI haphazardly. For one, it can disrupt the workforce. Nascent forms of artificial intelligence have already weakened the labor market. Continued development of this technology can displace many people from work without a near-term alternative. Next, such a phenomenon can drive inequality. The artificial super-intelligence would be capable of optimizing productivity in organizations without the requirement for employees. Concurrently, the entity’s few owners would experience significant wealth growth, whereas the common person would struggle to command employment. Finally, if it is able to drive the economic outcome for billions of people, then an unprecedented bifurcation would form between the haves and the have-nots and the machine would become a potent selective pressure on homo sapiens. To be sure, it is unlikely humans will cease to exist, but the way we survive will need to adapt. Therefore as you move forward with the knowledge from this piece, I hope you understand why an artificial super-intelligence is an ensuing force which cannot be ignored. We must be prepared to change how we define human functionality.