Home Insurance in Florida: 60 Years of Climate Perils(Part-2)
By: Avaneesh Kumar
Tags: Climate, Insurance, Excel, Data Analysis, Florida

In the last article, we analyzed the distribution of different perils and also explored WindStorm analysis in detail i.e. which counties were impacted the most, what’s the total loss, etc. Here we will demystify hails and tornadoes in the state of Florida, US. So let's get going.

Snapshot of HailStorms

Florida suffers from more thunderstorms than any other state in the US due to its geographical location and also it suffers from a lot of hurricanes which in turn gives rise to tornadoes and which favours the formation and movement of hail clouds. The movement of clouds takes place towards the low-pressure areas, areas which are relatively hotter (central part of Florida). — refer link for better understanding

The freezing level in a Florida thunderstorm is very high; a hail often melts before it reaches the ground. Even though hails are not common to the state, there have been about a dozen events of the hails of over 3 inches being reported in Florida. Although hail events have decreased in the last 10–15 years, research (data) shows the hail size has increased causing more damage than before to crops, cars, roofs and in severe cases, fatality.

Action Items

In the high-risk areas, focus more on homes with better roof material, clear outdoors, window material, shingles and other, charge according to the risk profiling.

Similarly, charge a higher premium from high-risk areas.

Increase the deductibles so less number of people file for claims.

Live update to the insurance holders is a safety precaution that can also help the company reduce claims and damage to the property

In the months where hails are higher, pre-check the roofs for fraud claims.

Areas affected by Hailstorms

Losses due to Hail Storms represents a slightly different story, top countries with most of the loss are:

Polk County (74, 13 %) Orange County (48, 8 %) Hillsborough County (27, 5%) Marion County (21, 4%) Lake County (20, 3 %)

According to years and occurrence pattern in Hailstorms (year): 1992, 1991, 1996, 1999 and 2005 were the years with maximum hail loss-rating i.e. loss due to hails. Also, hailstorm events have decreased with an increasing year in last few years i.e.

1999, 2003, 2001, 1998 and 2007 had the highest number of hail storms.

There is a different pattern between 1985 to 2000 (from the data).

Average wind speed has been constant for the last 6–7 years but higher than before.

Lesser number of hail events than wind events.

Maximum wind loss occurs in May, June, July & August.

Hail size showed an upward inclination with an increasing average mean temperature in various parts in the US, whereas the events of hails have reduced with the passing year for the last 10 years. Hail events are dependent on windstorms and thunderstorms. Further References — Hail Size, Hail-case-study & Average Temperature

Action Items (Minimise the Hail Damage)

Install wind shutters designed to defend against high winds and hail.

Purchase & install pressure or high impact windows.

Secure doors with heavy-duty bolts at the top and bottom of the door frame.

Hail can cause damage to many parts of the home, but it most commonly hits the roof the hardest. A damaged shingle, in particular, can allow water to get through to the roof deck and cause harm to the ceiling and support beams. This will eventually lead to more leaks in the roof, stains on the ceiling and walls, and potential flooding. The cost to repair a roof following such damages will be expensive, but holding it off could lead to even more costly repairs down the road thus, it’s best to perform repairs as quickly as possible. The two types of repairs one might be faced will include: Asphalt and Other Singles (Wood, Metal, Tile)

Snapshot of Tornadoes

Truly destructive tornadoes are most frequently reported in Florida during the spring and summer and the most powerful usually strike in spring. Tornadoes develop from severe thunderstorms, they are usually preceded by very heavy rain and/or large hail. A thunderstorm accompanied by a hail storm indicates that the storm has large amounts of energy and may be severe. In general, the larger the hailstones, the more potential there is for damaging winds and/or tornadoes. The most violent tornadoes are capable of tremendous destruction with wind speeds of 250 mph or more.

Damage paths have exceeded the width of one mile and 50 miles long. Tornadoes generally move from southwest to northeast but also have been recorded following a random walk. The forward speed of a tornado varies from 30 mph to 70 mph but what triggers a tornado is still not altogether clear. Tornadoes spawn inside clouds when there are great turbulence and winds of various speeds and velocities coming in contact with one another. Although there is uncertainty about the triggers, meteorologists can identify atmospheric conditions conducive to tornadic activity. tornado florida — better overview

Action Items

Implement a geographic information system(GIS) to more efficiently respond to natural events through risk analysis, real-time events monitoring, and aligned optimized response, better understand and plan for catastrophes and assign claim adjusters and response teams where they will likely be needed most based on historic trends.

As there is no specific reason for tornado’s activation(only hurricane and thunderstorm), prior knowledge provided to customer can help him and the company reduce claims.

Areas affected by Tornados

When considering total loss as a parameter for comparison, top counties suffering most damage are -

Palm Beach County (167, 5%) Polk County (160, 4.8%) Hillsborough County (134, 4%) Miami-Dade County (134, 4%) Pinellas County (134, 4%)

1997, 1998, 2004, 1975 and 1995 are the years with maximum Tornado counts. Similarly, 1997, 1998, 1983, 1979 and 1975 are the years in which maximum tornado loss occurred and also 1998 has maximum injuries and fatalities with mean_loss_rating above 4.5 were assigned an F4 rating but later reduced to F3.

But with time the count and loss due to Tornados and decreased as is evident from the Data.

Action Items (To reduce the Tornado damage)

Tornado damage occurs following high winds from blowing debris. While we can’t do a lot to prepare for a tornado, it helps to trim tree branches back on the roof and windows. We can also reinforce the roof to better handle high winds:

Shake roof : Add more nails.

: Add more nails. Slate roof : Seal down with cement.

: Seal down with cement. Tile roof : Place a steel strap over the tiles.

: Place a steel strap over the tiles. Asphalt roof: Nothing can be done, but inspect after.

Invest in a storm cellar, which is built underground and allows great defence against high winds during a tornado. A storm shelter is built close to the home so it is easy to access during a tornado and doesn’t have to run far for safety. A storm cellar door is built at an angle so that debris blows over the door. This allows for debris to roll over the door rather than trap it, so one can get in and out easily. The confines of a storm cellar for a family is around 8 by 12 feet with an arched roof. It’s made of cement blocks and rebar to ensure maximum defences.

Significant tornado events (evident from the data also)

1966, 04: Tampa_tornado_family

1958, 04: Colfax Wisconsin

2004, 09: Hurricane_Ivan

1997–1998: Kissimmee

“The tornadoes were strong due to an abnormally strong jet stream with warm, humid air out ahead of the cold front. This is common in the El Niño phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during the Florida dry season (November 1 — April 30).[5] During El Niño the jet stream is typically stronger and further south near or over Florida in the winter and spring. This greatly increases the odds that conditions will be favourable for strong tornado development.” ~Wiki

The Phases from March to September are the months with most events occurring, Tornadoes with higher damage capacity happen when there was an event of hurricane or thunderstorms in the area.

Last 20 years in Florida

Wind Snapshot

Hail Snapshot

Tornado Snapshot

This gives us a glimpse of how Florida was impacted since 1955–2016 from Storms: hails, winds and tornadoes. This kind of data-driven granular analysis gives us a better overview of climate impact at the local level, useful in many ways (the user's discretion). You can get a more detailed analysis, models and EDAs in Kaggle kernels section of NOAA data section. Hope to bore you with more similar articles in future.

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Data source: NOAA, Kaggle.