How bad is it? The climate crisis told through 3 new reports
By: Brandon Pytel
Tags: Climate Change, Paris Agreement, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Global Warming, Environment

It’s the holiday season, and this year, the climate community is gifting us a bunch of dire reports.

This week, the United Nations released yet another report, the Emissions Gap Report, which found that the Planet is on pace to exceed 3 degrees Celsius of temperature rise this century — over one degree higher than the limit set by the Paris Agreement to avoid a climate catastrophe.

Unfortunately for humankind, the Emissions Gap Report is just the latest in a string of sprawling studies that warn us of the climate crisis set to unravel in the coming decades. It’s getting so bad that in last week’s “State of the Planet” speech, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres called our current path suicide.

So, how bad is it? For this post, we’re diving into three recent reports to see if we can reverse our suicidal course.

West coast wildfires turn the sky orange over the San Francisco Bay Bridge. Photo credit: Thom Milkovic/Unsplash

The good

Let’s start with some good news. Though we’re on pace for a 3-degree Celsius increase, we’re not guaranteed to hit it. In fact, a new report by the Climate Action Tracker found that the Planet is “within striking distance” of the 1.5-degree limit set by the Paris Agreement.

That’s largely because of recent long-term, net-zero pledges by 127 countries, including China, Japan, and an anticipated one from the United States. If all these pledges are met (granted, a big “if”), global warming could be as low as 2.1 degrees by the end of the century.

To turn the dial even lower, countries can strengthen their 2030 targets. But as the report states rather bluntly, “there remains little positive movement by governments to improve their 2030 [nationally determined contributions] targets since Paris in 2015.”

The bad

If we had a dollar for every bad-news climate report, we’d be richer than the oil companies that got us into this mess. But for brevity’s sake, we’ll limit this section to the recent report, by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

The analysis found that 2020 is set to be one of the three hottest years on record and that last decade was the hottest 10-year span on record. In 2019, we also saw record levels of CO2, methane, and nitrous oxide in the atmosphere — this despite lockdowns associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.

And it gets worse: We have at least a one in five chance of global warming exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius in the next five years, said WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas, in a statement. If that happens, we’ll usher in an era of planetary devastation much sooner than previously expected. Like we said, it’s bad.

The ugly

Of course, the fight against climate change would be more hopeful if we weren’t determined to shoot ourselves in the foot at every turn. That’s essentially what the Production Gap Report, released last week by the U.N Environment Programme, shows.

That report suggests the world must decrease fossil fuel production by 6% each of the next 10 years to meet Paris Agreement targets. In reality, however, countries are currently planning to expand fossil fuel production by 2% annually, “which by 2030 would result in more than double the production consistent with the 1.5°C limit.”

Put another way, these reports aren’t worth the paper they’re printed on if world and industry leaders ignore them and continue increasing emissions.

We have the tools. Let’s use them

We should note that all these reports set out pathways for action. Both the WMO and UNEP reports point to the opportunity for green recovery plans to shape a long-term, just, and equitable transition from fossil fuels. Additionally, the Climate Action Tracker report shows that the Paris Agreement is “driving climate action,” with 2100 warming estimates falling in recent years.

As Secretary-General Guterres said last week, “The door is open; the solutions are there. Now is the time to transform humankind’s relationship with the natural world — and with each other.”

These reports show that there’s no other option.