NFL Week 16 Betting Preview
By: Blakey Locks
Tags: Football Betting, NFL, Football, Sports, Gambling

NFL Week 16 Betting Preview

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays, ladies and degents! This is Blakey Locks coming to you live on Christmas Day to deliver you some good gifts (hopefully). There are only two weeks left in the NFL season so you can’t let a holiday weekend stop you from getting involved in the degeneracy this weekend. I actually love the board on this fine Christmas weekend so without further ado, let’s get into the picks.

NFL YTD: 78–60–4 (56.62%) +23.8u

Christmas Special- 1.5u Vikings (+7) @ Saints

I think the Saints offense has a lot of issues. As crazy as it sounds, from a market perspective Drew Brees is a downgrade from Taysom Hill. We saw it with Teddy last year when the Saints were perfect ATS without Brees. The market values him highly and the Saints team as a whole plays to their potential more knowing their QB is out. Their defense is good but they are going against an elite Vikings offense. The Vikings are in desperation mode to somehow sneak into the playoffs so they will be giving everything. The Saints are relatively locked into the 2-seed so their motivation won’t be as high. The Chiefs dominated on the ground last week and Dalvin should be able to do a lot of the same and then Kirk can beat them in the play-action. The Saints at home are also always overvalued because of the Superdome effect and have a negative ROI in the Brees era there. Back the boys in purple on Christmas.

Saturday Specials- 1.5u Bucs (-9) @ Lions, 1.5u 49ers (+6) @ Cardinals

The Lions are missing their play-callers are offense, defense, and special teams and random assistants down the totem pole will be filling in. The interim head coach will be the WR coach. Matt Stafford hasn’t been the same since he messed up his thumb and we have seen him sit multiple drives the last few weeks, don’t be surprised if that happens again. With Stafford banged up and no Golladay, this offense is not the same. After slipping up early against the Falcons last week I think the Bucs lock-in and dominate here to secure a playoff spot.

The 49ers are being sold by everyone after a couple of bad games and the news CJ Beathard will start. I actually kind of like Beathard and think he can have some success against this Cardinals defense because of Shanahan and the strong run game the Niners will bring. I think the Cardinals are slightly overvalued here with “the motivation” because they are still in the playoff hunt. Well, Shanahan is not going to quit and there are a lot of guys proving their worth on this roster. San Fran keeps it close and could win outright.

Sunday Slate

1.5u Browns (-9) @ Jets: I’m selling the Jets after their big outright win. This line would be over 10 if the Jets didn’t win. I think the Jets win will actually make the Browns take this game more seriously. Quinnen Williams, who is the heart of their run D and their best pass rusher, is out for the Jets. The Jets defense is already thin and that could break them. The Chubb/Hunt duo should wear them down and dominate ToP and Baker will get his on deep shots against this vulnerable secondary. Browns roll.

1.5u Jaguars (+7.5) vs. Bears: We saw the Bengals and Jets win outright last week and now we have the Jags here who have lost 13 games in a row. They couldn’t hang with a Ravens team that is playing next level right now, but the Bears are not the Ravens. I’m selling high on the Bears who have been playing way above their means offensively. Mitch Trubisky is still Mitch Trubisky and the Jags have the dudes on defense who could make the plays for the Jags to pull this win off outright. Minshew is capable of playing an insane game like he did week one against the Colts (where they pulled off the upset). Jags keep it close at home here and might just win the game.

1u Giants (+10.5) @ Ravens: The Ravens have been rolling bad teams but I’m selling them here. Fading Lamar Jackson at home has been very profitable and backing the Giants on the road has also been a cash cow. Those two coming together in a spot where the Giants' defense will be much improved with Bradberry back is a spot I love. The Giants' defense should limit the Ravens' offense and keep this one close.

1u Falcons (+10.5) @ Chiefs: The Chiefs haven’t been able to cover a number in weeks and it’s mostly due to the fact that their defense hasn’t been able to close games and Mahomes isn’t playing on a God-level like usual. The Falcons defense continues to play really well in the post-Quinn era and could limit the Chiefs as much as any team can. The Chiefs cover guys could really struggle against this Falcons receiving corps. They keep it close and worst case I love them to backdoor late.

1.5u Teaser Cowboys +8/Rams +7.5: Both of these games I consider coin-flips so I love getting over a TD. Jalen Hurts has definitely given this Eagles team a spark but they just flat out aren’t a very good team. No Zeke Elliot is actually preferable for me because he is washed and Tony Pollard is playing much better. Andy Dalton and those receivers are also playing well on offense and I expect this to come down to the wire in a shootout.

The Rams and Seahawks are playing for the division and I expect this to be an awesome game that comes down to the wire. If the line was the other way I would tease the Seahawks up as well. The Hawks are playing better defensively but that’s been against Carson Wentz, Colt McCoy, Sam Darnold, and Dwayne Haskins. I think facing a real offense could make us see more of early-season Seahawks defense and the Rams defense could give Russ some problems as they did in the first matchup (two picks and zero TDs). Rams keep it within one score.

2u Teaser Steelers +7.5/Raiders +9: We’re giving the Steelers one more shot. Something’s gotta give and with Juju not TikToking pre-game anymore this is the perfect chance. I like what they can do defensively against Phil Rivers and the Colts and the Steelers have to find some offensive spark at some point. If the Steelers won against Bengals they would be short favorites and when a line flips from the opener being a favorite to a short dog and you can tease them to 7.5/8.5, that’s one of my favorite spots. Oddsmakers think PIT is the better team and we get them over a TD.

Motivation should be equal in the Raiders/Dolphins game as both teams need to win to potentially make the playoffs. Derek Carr is back at full participation in practice and despite Mariota playing well last week, Carr still gives them the best chance to win. Miami has an elite pass defense but their rush defense ranks 24th in DVOA. Josh Jacobs should dominate them and the Raiders can win the ToP battle. I am not a believer in Tua and the Dolphins' offense so I wouldn’t be surprised if Vegas wins outright and they can definitely keep it close.

That’s it for me folks! Best of luck and I hope I make you an extra Christmas present! Cheers!