Upper 90 Game of The Day — Liverpool v West Brom
By: Kyle Newbould
Tags: West Brom, Football, Preview, Premier League, Liverpool

As the festive fixture list continues to fill our weekend, Sunday’s GOTD pick comes from the home of the champions, as Liverpool play host to a struggling West Brom side.

Liverpool are currently top of the table with 9 wins, 4 draws and 31 points from their opening 14 games. Jurgen Klopp’s side have been plagued by injuries, but their strength in depth and commitment to the system have paid dividends, and they are unbeaten in their last 10 league games — scoring in every game so far this season. The Reds are unbeaten at Anfield for over 3 years and are hoping to continue that incredible run into 2021. Their last defeat at home? a 2–1 loss to a Crystal Palace side managed by — you guessed it — Sam Allardyce.

West Brom’s season couldn’t be further away in comparison, with the newly promoted side currently sitting in 19th, with just 1 win, 4 draws and 7 points to their name — already 5 points away from safety. The recent sacking of Slaven Bilic, and subsequent introduction of Allardyce, is yet to improve the Baggies, who are without an away win all season, and recorded an xG of just 0.02 in last week’s 3–0 defeat at home to Aston Villa.

Statistical Analysis

Despite the injuries, Liverpool have been scintillating at times this season, most notably in last weeks 7–0 demolition of Roy Hodgson’s Crystal Palace. The Reds are averaging a league high of 2.43 goals per game, from an xG/90 of 2.09 — also the highest in the league.

They have scored in every single game this season, with total match goals in their games at 4.00, from an xG/90 of 3.52. Of their 14 league games, 10 have produced over 2.5 goals, 6 have produced over 3.5 goals and 3 have gifted us with 7+ goals (against Leeds, Villa and Palace).

Klopp’s star-man is undoubtedly Mohamed Salah, who has hit 13 goals in his 13 appearances, from an xG of 8.1. The Egyptian is 2 ahead of Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Jamie Vardy and Heung-Min Son in the Golden Boot race, after bagging in each of his last 4 league games, including 2 in 3 minutes at Palace.

At the opposite end of the table sit West Brom. With just 1 win all season — at home to Sheffield United — and 7 games without a win on their travels, the outlook is bleak for Allardyce’s side.

They have scored just 10 goals all season, only ahead of Sheffield and Burnley, and have the lowest xG with just 8.4. On their travels, the numbers only get worse. They are conceding an average of 2.00 goals per away game, from an xGA/90 of 1.96, whilst recording just 0.71 goals per game from an xG/90 of 0.51.

The Baggies are yet to record an xG above 1.00 in a single away game this season, with their highest total of just 0.6 coming against Newcastle, Manchester United and Brighton — with those 3 games producing just 2 goals. They have only managed to score more than once on 2 occasions all season against Everton and Chelsea, and have blanked completely in 7 of their 14 games. Last weeks defeat to Villa saw them record a woeful xG of just 0.02 from one shot on target.

Tips

Medium Risk Tip — Liverpool to win to nil @ 4/6: The home side are, once again, in incredible form and seem entirely unstoppable at Anfield. The competition between the front 3 is producing some unbelievable performances, not least at Selhurst Park. Allardyce was the last to win at Anfield, but to get anything with this Albion side is asking a lot of the no-nonsense boss, with West Brom scoring just 5 goals in 7 away games.

High Risk Tip — Over 5 first-half corners @ 13/10: As usual, expect Liverpool to come flying out of the blocks, and create chances from the first minute. Albion will be looking to absorb pressure and sit deep early-doors, reducing Liverpool to minimal clear-cut chances, but plenty of half-chances and space on the edge of the box. The goals might not fly in as easily for Salah and co. but the chances most deifnitely will. Sam Johnstone will be a busy man.