Armed Forces Bowl
Tags: Sports, Sports Betting

Armed Forces Bowl

The second bowl of the day on Saturday is the Armed Forces bowl. The bowl is held in Fort Worth, Texas and this year it features Army and San Diego State.

The line for this game did not see much movement at all; in fact the least of all bowl games. It opened SDST -7 with a total of 46.5 and has only seen the spread drop a half point, down to -6.5.

These are two pretty similar teams in terms of what the game plan is, which is …. run the ball. Let’s see how the stats stack up.

It looks like both teams are scoring less than they should against their schedule. However, both are allowing less than they should be expected to. SDST in particular seem to be doing a better job of keeping their opponents under wraps. The spread could be expected to be -6. And it looks like a low scoring game, totalling 35 points.

When yards per play are used instead of expected points, there is a similar result.

There haven’t been any instances of a favorite having value based on yards per play other than USF in this morning’s other preview.

While these teams both operate run heavy offenses, it appears Army is a little better at completing 3rd downs (probably because they are usually trying to run on 3rd and really short) and SDST is a little better at stopping teams on 3rd. Considering Army’s lack of passing (about 5 attempts a game) 3rd down and short plays will probably decide this game. SDST’s 65% success rate at stopping the opposition will be under the spotlight this afternoon.

Digging into some deeper defensive stats makes SDST look like they might have a bit of an edge. Better tackle for loss rate, significantly better stop rate (let’s hope that ties in with that great 3rd down success rate), significantly better points allowed per drive.

Neither team really has an explosive offense, both ranking in the 70’s (about mid-point of the league). But, Army has a terrible success rate at stopping explosive plays. They rank 119th in the country, so maybe SDST will break some big plays.

The stats seem to point to a SDST win and possible cover. What about situationally? Well, Army is in a bowl for the second straight year and they won last year in overtime. But, how motivated will they be? Their big game was for Commander in Chiefs trophy (a game where a winner came through on Army). As for SDST, they should be pumped for this game. Rocky Long has had SDST in 6 straight bowls. But, other than one year in Louisiana, all five have been in places where they play during the regular season. Las Vegas, Hawaii and San Diego are nice but, if you play there every year, it can’t feel that special to be in a bowl there. Furthermore, its just going to be nice to not be playing at home in the Poinsettia Bowl, which SDST has done three times in the last six years. A trip to Texas should be welcome. As for the option attack that always has to be discussed when capping Army games, Rocky Long and SDST play an option team every year in Air Force. So, this shouldn’t be a surprise. And they have a month to prepare.

Much like Wyoming last night, take this puppy to the bank. And if you see a guy named Pete there, tell him not to hedge longer and get in big on SDST.

SDST -6.5,

Good luck