Resurgence of Covid-19 Challenge and Role of Citizens as Responsible Actors
By: Seema Joshi
Tags: Covid 19, Covid 19 Crisis, Covid 19 Testing, Covid Diaries, Covid 19 Update

COVID -19 has hit the wealthiest and poorest economies of the world economically. This is said to be the worst recession since World War II and the first one to be triggered solely by a pandemic since 1870. For India’s economy, this has been termed as the fourth and worst recession after its independence in 1947. The downward spiral in growth has been experienced by almost every country of the world except for one country i.e. China. China stands out by reporting a positive growth rate of 2.3 percent in 2020. — indeed an outcome of effective management of the crisis by China among other factors. When the global economy contracted by 3.3% in 2020, India’s economy shrank by 8 percent as per IMF’s projections.

To be more precise, the downward spiral in national income had set in in case of India before the onset of COVID as has been revealed by the provisional estimates of the Central Statistical Organization (CSO). But the lockdown of the economy from March 24 to May 30, 2020 to contain the spread of this contagious disease brought the economy to a halt. Having experienced de-growth in the first two quarters of the fiscal year 2020–21, the economy snapped out of the technical recession in Q3, when the demand for passenger vehicles and non-durables started picking up during and after the festival season (Oct-Dec,2020). In Q4 of FY 2020–21, the record high goods and services tax (GST) collections , higher e-way bill collections, an inflow of foreign institutional investment (FIIs) had set in a wave of positivism for economic recovery. This had been complemented by recent projections of IMF which had raised India’s GDP growth projection for the current fiscal year to 12.5 percent (FY 22) which is the highest not just among the emerging economies but also among the advanced economies. India’s growth projection for FY23 has been raised from 6.8 percent to 6.9 percent by the international body.

But the sudden resurgence of COVID-19 wave and proliferation of COVID cases despite having reached 12 cores vaccination mark as part of the world’s largest vaccination drive undertaken in a lesser no of days (92 days) as compared to the USA (97 days) and China (108 days) reversed the wave of optimism reflected in the projections done by IMF. Rising COVID cases which touched the 1.5 crores mark on April 18, 2021, and caused so far 1,78,793 deaths indicate that the disruptive phase is far from over and recovery signals may not remain consistent due to these challenges. This ‘bouncing back and fading pattern of growth’ has been implicitly indicating that the worst is not yet over. Certainly, we are still not out of the woods. It is feared that restrictions and ‘the lockdown syndrome’ can slow the pace of recovery in the next few months. The revival of the economy is heavily contingent upon the revival of consumption, investment, and external trade. But mini lockdown indicates the possibilities of lesser consumption, lesser investment, lesser exports, and imports in near future. In the light of recent developments, the GDP growth rate is likely to post a modest recovery.

At this juncture, we cannot celebrate surplus in the current account (CA) balance (2 % of GDP in 2020–21) which we have built after a gap of seventeen years during this tough time. It is important to mention that the CA surplus is mainly an outcome of a reduction in import bills and saving of forex due to falling prices of oil (POL). The latter indirectly points towards disruption of economic activity and contraction of demand in the real economy too.

The soaring forex reserves at 580 billion dollars (v/s $ 1 billion in 1991) is a lifetime record. By providing more than one-year import cover (as against 7 days in 1991), these reserves can act as a cushion in times of COVID induced economic crisis, when the economic growth has contracted and the glimmers of hope and economic revival may take some time now with a sharp spike in COVID cases. Shoots of budding optimism for economic revival reflected among other factors in rising forex seem to be abated by the rising debt to GDP ratio at 90 % of GDP. Previous studies done by the World Bank show that if the ratio exceeds 77% for a longer period, it leads to a slowing down of economic growth. We can remember the conclusion of studies done by Reinhart and Rogoff in 2008 which painted a grim growth scenario for countries having a high debt-GDP ratio.

There is no denying the fact that fiscal stimulus (constituting 10% of GDP) in the form of The Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan’ (Self -reliant India) is a step in the right direction by the government for boosting consumption, investment, and external trade. The main focus will be on the five “pillars”, namely economy, infrastructure, technology-driven systems, vibrant demography and demand. We have come a long way in just one year; from no vaccines at our disposal to the export of vaccines to 80 countries is a commendable achievement for India (in a year). From an importer of Personal Protection Equipment (PPEs) kits in March 2020 to a manufacturer of 4.5 lakh PPEs per day are indeed showing the potential of innovations and start-up culture that India can harness in near future. The role of selected citizens who happen to be innovators in this ‘Pharmacy of the world’ is worthy of praise. However, the sudden spiral of Corona cases attributed among other things to lack of respect for standard operating procedures(SOPs) issued by the government last year or in other words to not following ‘COVID-appropriate behaviors ‘and staying away or hesitating from getting vaccinated . This lack of respect for SOPs/directives issued by the government to be followed on day-today basis or during any ceremonies or even during the world’s largest religious gathering in the form of ‘Kumbh Mela’ and lack of participation in vaccination drive i.e. ‘vaccine hesitancy’ show the bigger role that could have been played by the remaining majority of citizens in the country in checking flaring up of cases so sharply, understanding their responsibility towards the community at large.

.Undeniably, the governments by implementing disease control and various other proactive and pre-emptive measures for revival of the economy by themselves cannot tackle alone the problems unless the citizens who are also an important stakeholder in nation’s growth and prosperity play their complementary role. We well understand the financial, infrastructural, and attitudinal constraints faced by developing economies like India in using containment strategies of ‘testing, tracking and treatment’ of COVID-19, which have played a notable role in South Korea in the containment of this disease. But following the COVID precautions like maintaining social distancing and sanitation, wearing masks, getting vaccinated, and avoiding congregations and gatherings for weddings or other social or religious ceremonies can play an important role in the prevention of the disease till the infrastructural constraints are managed to some extent or done away with in medium and long term. However, this requires changed behaviors and mindsets of citizens/individuals. The citizens of countries including India have to be responsible actors in this disease prevention rather than becoming carriers or spreaders of this disease. This brings out the need for educating people through the organization of awareness and sensitization campaigns immediately and through reorientation of education in the medium and long term. The course curricula changes must highlight that the ‘everything is connected to everything else’ which was emphasized by an American Cellular biologist and a leading ecologist, late Barry Commoner in 1971. Even the other dangers exposed by virus-like ‘connectedness without cooperation’ too should be highlighted so that we as global citizens can prepare ourselves for future exigencies well in advance and help in creating a sustainable world through global solutions.

If Norway’s first female Prime Minister Gro Harlem Brundtland had put sustainable development on the international agenda by using this term in World Commission on Environment and Development report titled “Our Common Future”, UNESCO- the lead UN agency for Education for Sustainable Development (ESD) has been promoting education for sustainable development through the Global Action Programme (GAP) on ESD. ESD aims at transforming societies by reorienting education. It recognizes that having knowledge and skills are important but the role of values and behaviors of individuals in countering various problems including that of COVID-19 cannot be ignored or underestimated. It is widely recognized now that the Citizens are indeed responsible actors who can play an important role in creating a more sustainable world. Going forward, massive transformation in education for making citizens of countries ‘responsible actors’ is a must now for tackling the current humanitarian crisis posed by COVID-19 and also for dealing with any future challenge posed by deadly new viruses in this ‘Age of pandemics’ or any other natural or man-made disaster in this world. It is also important to mention here that present and future of citizens of each country rich or poor, developed or underdeveloped seems to be common after COVID as the pandemic has emerged as a great leveller. But we cannot ignore the fact that more than 200 countries which have been hit hard by this pandemic do not have ‘common past’. Therefore, the pandemic has brought to the fore the realization and need for more collaborations and partnerships not only among citizens but also among communities, governments, the private sector, civil society and other parties at all levels local, national, regional as well as international to offer solutions for various challenges encountered/confronted at different levels. Looking ahead, ‘collaborative future’ by engaging global citizens, governments and other parties for resolving global problems appears to be absolutely necessary .This will also help in achieving United Nation’s, 17 sustainable development goals under Agenda 2030 laid down for ‘people , planet and prosperity’. Since people are at the center of the SDGs, therefore, engaging them and educating them about their responsibility towards the planet is a must.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely of the author.

(Dr. Seema Joshi)

(Associate Professor of Economics, Department of Commerce, Kirori Mal College, University of Delhi, Delhi-110007) e-mail :seemajoshi143@gmail.com.