War Within the House Democratic Caucus
By: Josh Lasday
Tags: Blue Wave, Democratic Party, Election 2020

If anyone was curious about how long it would take for the many wings of the Democratic party to turn on one another, the answer is not very long. This week, there has been an escalating blame-game among congressional Democrats. Despite Georgia’s two Senate races going to a runoff election, it is highly likely that the Republicans will maintain the majority in the U.S. Senate. After expecting to add to the majority in the House of Representatives, we have seen multiple first-term Democrats, that were part of the 2018 midterm blue-wave, lose their seats and diminish Nancy Pelosi’s majority. By no means was this another “blue wave” that the polls predicted or that the Democratic leadership was expecting. The questions that now need to be asked are, where did the party fail in this election, and how can we turn this failure into success in the 2022 midterms?

The first shot in this proverbial battle over the soul of the Democratic party came from Representative Abigail Spanberger of Virginia’s 7thCongressional District. As the House Democratic caucus met over the phone, it was reported that Rep. Spanberger said, “Defund Police almost cost me my race.” It was also reported that she pleaded the House Democratic Caucus to “never say socialism ever again” and blamed this language within the Democratic party for having “lost races we shouldn’t have lost.” Rep. Jim Clyburn, whose endorsement is credited with saving President-elect Biden’s primary campaign, was next to pile on. On the same call, he cautioned the Democratic Party that if “we are going to run on Medicare for All, defund the police, socialized medicine, we’re not going to win.”

In response to the accusations by moderate Democrats, the more progressive wing of the party pushed back with a very different argument. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez from New York’s 14th Congressional District, tweeted that “every single swing-seat House Democrat who endorsed #MedicareForAll won reelection or is on track to win reelection.” The Democratic Socialists of America, a political organization supporting progressive Democratic candidates, tweeted a chart showing all the seats that they considered to be swing seats. This chart simply displayed whether candidates supported Medicare-for-All and whether they had won their election. This chart (shown below) was the visual representation of Rep. Ocasio-Cortez’s claims.

Looking closely at this chart, the foundation of the progressive’s argument becomes questionable. For starters, to say that Rep. Ocasio-Cortez (NY-04), Rep. Ilhan Omar (MN-05), or newly elected Rep. Cori Bush’s (MO-01) congressional seats were swing races in the general election for Democrats is a fairly big reach. As examples, Rep. Ocasio- Cortez’s, Rep. Omar, and Rep. Elect Bush come from three of the most Democratic Leaning Congressional Districts in the country. The Cook Political report compiles a study that determines how a Republican or Democratic congressional district performs compared to the national average (which they define as PVI). When you look at all three of these congressional districts, they all lean heavily Democrat. Rep. Ocasio Cortez’s has a PVI of D+29, Rep. Omar’s has a PV of D+26, and Rep.-Elect Bush’s district has a PVI of D+29. Including them on this list of swing seats is misleading as all three of their districts lean so heavily democratic. In the general election, the Democrat is likely to win in each of those districts by at least 20 points. It is also important to mention that all three of these districts have a rural-urban breakdown of at least 99% urban, meaning that their congressional districts are essentially completely city populations.

Diving into the races in which candidates lost and did not support Medicare-for-All, it becomes even more clear how Rep. Ocasio-Cortez’s statement and the Democratic Socialist’s chart oversimplify what really happened. Rep. Collin Peterson (MN-07), Rep. Joe Cunningham (SC-01), Rep. Kendra Horn (OK-05), Rep. Max Rose (NY-11), and Rep. Xochitl Torres Small (NM-02) all represent districts that historically and currently are more likely to vote Republican (some heavily so). Rep. Peterson, Rep. Cunningham, and Rep. Horn all ran in districts that have a PVI of at least R+10. Medicare-for-All (the banning of the private health care industry), is a policy that is contentious among moderate Democrats, independents, labor unions, and Republicans. To suggest that any of these candidates would have won if they had simply endorsed Medicare-for-All, is a reductive argument that comes from a Congresswoman who represents one of the most heavily democratic and urban districts in the country and safely won her reelection by 38 points. During the “blue-wave” midterm elections of 2018, the Democratic party had no problem holding onto safe urban and heavily Democratic districts like Rep. Ocasio-Cortez’s. By no means were these the contests that turned 2018 into such a big year for Democrats. The “blue wave” was a direct result of the many suburban and rural seats that we picked up in “Trump districts” and other districts that perform more traditionally Republican. It was in these very same districts where Democrats lost ground during this election cycle with many first-term “blue-wave” members losing their reelection bids.

Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger represents Virginia’s 7th Congressional District. The Cook Political report gives Virginia’s 7th Congressional District a PVI of R+6, and Rep. Spanberger narrowly won reelection this year by a 2-point margin. She was one of multiple 2018 “blue wave” Democrats who barely won reelection in a republican leaning district in 2020. Rep. Spanberger knows just as well as anyone the difficulties that a Democrat running in a conservative district face. Doesn’t she have the right to be frustrated with the progressive wing for using language that is detrimental to her reelection bid and for trying to dictate to her how Democrats can win and pick up seats in 2022, when many of the progressives represent the safest of blue congressional districts? If the democrats want to gain ground in the House of Representatives and Flip the Senate in 2022, we are going to need to listen to and support Democrats who are having success in more conservative parts of the country. As Democrats, moderate or progressive, the collective goal will be to pick up seats in 2022. There is a lot that moderate Democrats can, and should be, learning from progressive Democrats like Rep. Ocasio-Cortez. For example, the Democratic party should be listening to her strategy when it comes to digital organizing, an area that she has advanced and expanded greatly in her two successful elections. However, as a whole, if the Democrats are serious about growing the majority in 2022, we should be elevating the voices of Representatives like Abigail Spanberger (VA-07), Colin Allred (TX-32), Matt Cartwright (PA-08) (who endorsed Medicare-for-All), Cindy Axne (IA-03), Angie Craig (MN-02), and Lauren Underwood (IL-14) whom all were integral parts of the 2018 “blue wave”, all represent districts that lean republican (have an R+ PVI), and all won their reelections in 2020.