Why presidential debates don’t matter in the general election?
By: Xiaodong Fang
Tags: President, Elections, Campaigns And Elections, Debate

In one of the worst presidential debates in history, Donald J. Trump and Joseph R. Biden Jr. appeared onstage together for the first time on Tuesday, September 30, 2020. The 90 minutes show was “plagued by interruptions and cross-talk.”

Are presidential debates still valuable in terms of campaigning and voting in the general election? The general answer is No. I would like to elaborate on the argument by exploring the three dynamics: viewer perception, candidate popularity, and voting behavior.

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Preferences are pre-determined

Do you still remember the crowded stage of Democratic presidential debates in late 2019? If Yes, then you might be disappointed about the interruptions and personal attacks between Trump and Biden without meaningful in-depth discussions on issues and policies.

What distinguishes general election debates from those in nominating is partisanship. The longstanding partisan views dominate the viewers’ attitudes towards the two contenders behind the podiums. As the viewers are more likely to hold a strong partisan bias when watching the debate, there is little chance for Donald Trump to change Democrats’ negative attitudes towards him, and vice versa for Joe Biden.

Limited boost for overtime

It’s difficult to win a debate as long as most of the audience have already stuck with one of the candidiates. Though campaign media and other post-debate polls put “A won the debate” in their headlines, research by political scientist James Stimson found little evidence of a substantial effect of the debates in the presidential campaigns between 1960 and 2000. According to Stimson, “At best, debates provide a “nudge” in very close elections like 1960, 1980, or 2000.”

Moreover, post-debate effects are found to be short-term, and mostly from audience members with different political predispositions. Candidates’ popularities are determined by many long-standing and short-term factors. A presidential debate, as an event, exert little influence in shifting polls.

Related: Biden won the election. But there were caveats of his campaign management

Negligible effect on poll

Even though the 90 minutes show boost or hurt one’s poll in rare cases, debates do not sway voters on the Election Day. A 2019 research from Harvard Business School found that 72% of voters make up their minds more than two months before the election, often before candidates square off. And those who shift to a different candidate closer to the election don’t do it following TV debates. The finding is echoed by a Pew study showing only 10% of the voters make up their minds based on debates in recent presidential elections.

Conclusion

Debate matters, but does not determine. Today’s campaign management in general elections lays more emphasis on strengthening the existing partisan support than converting undecided voters. And thus, presidential candidates can hardly tip the balance by betting on presidential debates.

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