What Is the Planning Fallacy and How to Beat It Down (9 Useful Tips)
By: Dan Silvestre
Tags: Planning, Procrastination, Productivity, Time Management, Self Improvement

The planning fallacy is a prediction phenomenon. It occurs that people underestimate the time it will take them to complete a task.

It’s all too familiar to many of us.

…and it continues despite knowing that previous tasks have taken longer than planned.

The planning fallacy was first proposed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. They presented their theory in an influential 1979 paper.

Let me explain.

The study “Exploring the “Planning Fallacy”: Why People Underestimate Their Task Completion Times”:

“37 psychology students were asked to estimate how long it would take to finish their senior theses. The average estimate was 33.9 days. They also estimated how long it would take “if everything went as well as it possibly could” (averaging 27.4 days) and “if everything went as poorly as it possibly could” (averaging 48.6 days). The average actual completion time was 55.5 days, with only about 30% of the students completing their thesis in the amount of time they predicted”.

Turns out students’ actual completion time was a remarkable 21.6 days longer than their best estimate (55.5 days to 33.9 days).

Other scientists, in “ An Economic Model of The Planning Fallacy” (2008), say:

“Faced with an unpleasant task, people tend both to underestimate the time necessary to complete the task and to postpone working on the task. Thus projects often take inordinately long to complete and people struggle to meet, or even miss, deadlines”.

Why Does it Happen and How to Beat it?

Let’s see why we assume we have more time than we actually do.

Then we will fix it in an instant.

The planning fallacy can make it difficult for us to complete tasks. Things like:

being on time for a meeting

meeting the application deadlines for college scholarships

getting ready for your plane departure

filing taxes

doing referee reports

planning for retirement

making investments in your health

…and many others (also referred to as “life”).

The planning fallacy can influence your health and work satisfaction.

Assuming you have more time than you do is the quickest route to:

stress

overwork

a lack of productivity

burnout

Consider that Mr. Average and the Sydney Opera House are in the same boat when it comes to the planning fallacy. The Australian government first commissioned the project in 1958. They set the expected completion date for 1963. Yet, it didn’t open until 1973–10 years late.

Happens to the best of us.

Planning Fallacy — 9 Ways to Overcome it

What if you could fix the cognitive bias that causes the planning fallacy to happen?

Let’s break it down.

Below, you’ll find 9 ways to overcome this cognitive bias.

1. Take an Outside View

Kahneman and Tversky believe that people lean towards an “inside view”.

They focus on the specifics of the task at hand, paying special attention to its unique features.

For example:

People imagine and plan out the specific steps they will take to carry out the target project.

Do you know what’s the problem here?

Events usually don’t unfold exactly as we imagine (not to mention — never).

We love to create a thoughtful mental scenario in advance, but we will likely encounter:

unexpected obstacles

delays

interruptions

Try to make more realistic predictions. Take an “outside view”. Be smarter than your cognitive bias.

Overcome your own (incorrect) subjectivity.

Do not base your estimates on your own frame of reference.

Base your predictions on your prior experiences so you don’t fall into the trap of thinking that your previous experiences aren’t relevant to the new task.

Here’s what happens:

People recognize that their past predictions have been over-optimistic.

Yet, they insist that their current predictions are realistic.

We are complicated creatures, aren’t we?

2. Be a Pessimist

What can go wrong, will go wrong — states Murphy’s Law.

Sad as it seems, it’s pretty useful when you have work to do.

Your projects won’t run perfectly, even with your best intentions at heart.

Approaching planning from a “negative”, i.e. risk management standpoint will help curb enthusiasm.

Here is some handy advice to follow:

Set a realistic deadline. Add a little buffer time (for example 20 percent to your estimated time) to that. Recalculate as needed

Focus on your lists. Only spend time and energy on what needs to get done

Consider what could go wrong. Think of how you can respond

3. Resist the Autocracy of the Urgent

Kat Boogaard of Trello explains:

“Our brains have the not-so-helpful tendency to conflate real, productive work with those other small, menial, and mindless tasks. By totally pushing those out of your mind (and off your to-do list) for now, you won’t be tempted to color-code your inbox when you should actually be completing that presentation that’s due in two hours.”

We tend to put important tasks aside and deal with urgent tasks.

Why?

Because they provide us a rapid sense of accomplishment and this is what tigers like.

Urgent tasks need your immediate attention. Phone calls, meetings, tasks with tight deadlines — they want you to take quick action.

These tasks don’t help advance long-term goals. Important tasks do.

To solve this vicious cycle, understand the difference between urgent and important tasks.

How good you are at distinguishing urgent and important tasks influences your future success.

4. Make Use of the Pomodoro Technique

Let’s jump right in:

For many people, time is an enemy — says Francesco Cirillo.

He’s an Italian entrepreneur, creator of the time management know-how called Pomodoro technique.

When Cirillo was a student, he created his own simple study habit. He used it to maximize his productivity and reduce a feeling of burnout.

It’s all about tracking your time to get a more realistic handle on your projects. Especially on how long specific projects and tasks take you.

The Pomodoro technique teaches us to work with time, not against it.

How to put it into practice?

This technique focuses on working in short, focused bursts of 20/30/40 minutes. Then you give yourself a brief break to recover and start over.

The technique requires a timer. It allows you to break down your large complex task into manageable intervals.

Once you start a task, you aim to finish it before attending to urgent but unimportant tasks.

5. Declutter of “Time Bullies”

Your working time is special. It’s important. Care about it.

When you work, your time is for your work. Stick to it.

Say “no” to unwanted cigarette breaks and gossiping with office co-workers.

Let’s say it again: When you work, you work.

Learn to say “no” to those who don’t respect it.

Saying “no” gives you time to focus on your creative efforts.

Don’t get suckered into tasks or leisure you don’t have time for.

It may be hard sometimes but use your assertive skills. Know how important is the working time for the development of your idea.

Say “yes” or “no” when you mean it.

6. Break Big Tasks Into Smaller Ones