Helping Armenia Recover from Artsakh War Advances U.S. National Interest
By: Armen Kharazian
Tags: Armenia, Iran, Artsakh War, United States, Nato

By Armen Kharazian[1]

The author raises concerns about the recent Russia-brokered truce agreement, and explains why these concerns are relevant to the United States, and detrimental to both Armenia, and the cause of regional security and stability. The author argues that Armenia should modify the agreement’s most problematic terms, to do which, he says, Armenia needs Western support. He then discusses possible forms that support may take, and lays out a case for a U.S. regional strategy that offers Armenia a path to NATO accession, along with Georgia.

Map: Russian Defense Ministry/Twitter

A 45-day war between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Artsakh (also known as Nagorno-Karabakh) ended recently with a truce agreement. Brokered by Russia in coordination with Turkey, the agreement imposed disproportionately harsh concessions on Armenia, resulting in the complete loss of Artsakh. To enforce the truce, Russia and Turkey agreed to establish a joint military mission, in a replay of a similar arrangement they tested earlier in Syria.

One of the most alarming concessions imposed on Armenia as part of this truce was the creation of an access corridor through southern Armenia, connecting Azerbaijan with its Nakhichevan exclave. The plan calls for Russia’s Federal Security Service to exercise control over that corridor, at least in the initial stage. If that plan succeeds, Armenia will likely lose sovereign control over its border with Iran to a conglomerate of Russian, Turkish and Azerbaijani interests, because any road and rail access through the region lays through the Arax River Valley, which traces the Armenian-Iranian border. In addition, Azerbaijan and Turkey will gain land contiguity, in a major boost to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s vision for a neo-Ottoman Empire stretching from the Aegean to Mongolia. This would produce a major geopolitical shift in the power balance of Eurasia, the Middle East, and Central Asia, making Turkey and Russia the key players across that vast expanse, with little room for the United States and Europe to act.

As Armenia heals after its devastating defeat in the Artsakh war, the West should step in and help the Armenian state to prevent its likely collapse. To accomplish this, Armenia should recall its consent, with Western support, to any plans for the establishment of an access corridor through its sovereign territory at this early stage in the process, where ceasefire consolidation and peacekeeping in the Artsakh conflict zone should take priority. International commerce is an important instrument of post-conflict rehabilitation, and lifting obstacles to regional trade must be one of the next steps. However, linking the one-way opening of this particular access road to the implementation of the truce agreement, in addition to placing the corridor under foreign control, imposes an unnecessary burden on Armenia’s sovereignty, the cost of which undermines any benefits it might produce. Instead, the matter should be addressed as part of a broader effort to lift all restrictions on international commerce in the region, in particular the Gyumri-Kars railway between Armenia and Turkey, as well as all other road and rail links connecting Turkey, Armenia, and Azerbaijan.

If Armenia rescinds its original consent to the corridor, obtained under duress, it should expect certain pushback from the other parties to the truce agreement. In that case, the West should be prepared to support Armenia by any means necessary and proper, to prevent any third parties from disrupting Armenia’s exercise of sovereign authority over its territory. This could involve diplomatic and political support, but also support in logistics and other assets that can be deployed promptly to the region, and help Armenia back up its actions with credible force.

Armenia too must actively seek to explore other options to build coalitions and goodwill by reaching out to other regional actors that may bring additional leverage and influence to the table, to help absorb the shock of any such rescission. One of these possible actors can be Israel, which shares historical and socio-political similarities with Armenia, and has an inspiring experience, on which to draw, to build a strong, prosperous, modern, and democratic state. An Armenia-Israel rapprochement can begin with the appointment of a new Armenian Ambassador to Jerusalem, and take many forms as the countries begin to cooperate in science, technology, agriculture, and other areas where Israel has a successful experience to share.

As the ceasefire in Artsakh takes hold, and the parties take their next steps toward a political resolution, the United States and France should actively re-engage in the peace process, with the U.S. represented by a high-level Co-Chair, who could leverage his or her authority to advocate for a more equitable negotiating position for all parties at the table, to achieve a durable political outcome. To assist Armenia in consolidating its investment in peace, increased trade, and modernization, the United States should also consider military aid to Armenia, with particular emphasis on strengthening the nation’s air defense, early warning, communications, space, and other capabilities, to give it an extra protection and resilience against possible encroachment seeking to undermine its progress or choices. Armenia should also have the freedom to choose its broader security arrangements and affiliations, in a way that best advance the multitude of its security and economic concerns, but the United States and the West should be prepared to offer Armenia a path to closer integration within the Euro-Atlantic community, if Armenia demonstrates such willingness and determination.

Viewed in conjunction with Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations which the United States supports, Armenia’s quest for security and modernization may well fit in the larger U.S. regional strategy for the South Caucasus, and deserves the serious attention it merits, to succeed.