Black Swan
By: Rhizom Foundation
Tags: Smart Contracts, Bitcoin, Blockchain, Nassim Taleb, Black Swan

Out of sight, out of might

Amidst our brief stay in the surface of this spheric stone that spins around an energy agglomerate of relatively dismal mass, many phenomena are revealed to our perception.

Some things are more frequent than others and, as our mind loves regularities, those more rarified immediately receive more attention and become objects of obsession, fear or both.

That is why we coat such events with a layer of mythology that seeks to cover the apparent irrationality their inherent unpredictability brings to our lives. We usually call it superstition and it involves several habits — of thought or action — organised around rituals.

Hence our will to address a phenomenon so rare that it was named Black Swan, an occurrence so outlandish within the normality of our daily affairs that it becomes an anomaly worthy of special consideration.

This term was updated by bully-statistician and makeshift historian of philosophy Nassim Nichoals Taleb to designate:

“The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.

The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).

The psychological biases that blind people, both individually and collectively, to uncertainty and to a rare event’s massive role in historical affairs.”

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory

The Black Swan metaphor refers to an unexpected, remarkable event that is rationalised in a hamfisted manner a posteriori. It takes inspiration from an old say in which one assumes that such animals did not exist and, after discovering them in reality, is reinterpreted to illustrate something completely alien to its original meaning.

In nuce, an accident made up of so many improbabilities that it far surpasses both our cognitive and technological capacities to predict it. And, as we all know, predict (or foresee) is one of mankind’s dearest activities in society, especially when the means to its survival and greed are at stake.

Say “triskaidekaphobia” 13 times

The number 13 itself has a very curious — and recurring, mind you — place in that repertoire that aims to handle symbolically our brief misadventure in this spinning rock covered in water, especially if we focus on that great mishap we like to call “Western History”.

It reappears with impressive consistency in innumerable moments, from the Last Supper to Tupac’s murder all the way through the Original Sin, but it is its very persistence as superstiosion that fascinates us.

We even arrive at the mindless idea of removing the thirteenth floors that carry the stigma of being numbered with such a nefarious compound of algarisms or ignore their existence in the configuration of airplane seats in commercial flights, all of that in the hopes of avoiding the probable evils — some of them quite lethal — its presence might bring about.

https://skeptics.stackexchange.com/questions/2973/do-hotels-omit-the-13th-floor

However, far from being a number that would “mark” the Black Swans that dwell in the tragedy of humans’ trajectory in the world, it betokens our obsession with regularities and our vain hopes in trying to control variables, as disparate as they can be and, as cuah, avoid the unavoidable or even to be prepared to deal with it.

There are people who believe Bitcoin is one of such rare and enthralling creatures, fulfilling all prerequisites that allow it to be deemed as a phenomenon that fits that theory:

“The event is a surprise: The release of Bitcoin in the global market, to the observer, was a complete surprise. Because until Bitcoin came about, nobody thought that such a currency could exist, let alone flourish. So, yes, it was a surprise.

The event has a major effect: Bitcoin, in ten years has become the largest and first cryptocurrency in the market. The cryptocurrency has also amassed quite a following and a huge tight-knit community worldwide. Bitcoin, alone, has been the subject of many a debate in parliaments and governments across the world. With that being said, Bitcoin has also spawned a market with over 2000 individual cryptocurrencies and also has a side startup industry based on the blockchain. So, yes, it did and does have a major effect.

After the first recorded instance of the event, it is rationalized by hindsight, as if it could have been expected: If we were to take under consideration the timing of Bitcoin’s introduction into the world and how it has become almost a threat to the financial structures of the world, it can be rationalised by hindsight.

Because people were extremely disgusted by the financial structure failing them and leading the world into a financial crisis, Bitcoin (a government free, trustless currency) managed to do so well. So with that in mind, it seems as though the invention of a currency that is free of the government and required no middleman was bound to happen.”

Source: https://hackernoon.com/is-bitcoin-a-black-swan-event-ea0e05f0c52a

This inference can be deemed plausible to a certain extent, even if greatly imbued with that amount of wishful thinking that is the quintessence of the kind of magical thinking informing any form of rationalisation that ends up being superstitious. And maybe this is what made us use this space to talk about such a peculiar phenomenon in such a picturesque day… maybe not. After all, Bitcoin itself is very close to us for what it is, but also quite distante for what it does.

Anyhow, it is only natural that many hopes are placed upon blockchain and the virtualities it brings forth at each new application made possible within its innovative architecture or even the daily tasks of our lives advanced through it. But what is worth saying here is: if Bitcoin can be understood as a manifestation of that phenomenon, of its singular and revolutionary nature, it is also where we start towards more consistent and constant improvements.

Rhizom lies at this very stage.