May 2020 CoupCast Update
By: Matt Scott Frank
Tags: Forecasting, International Relations, Data Science, Coup, Machine Learning

Burundi, Sudan and the Algeria have the highest risk of coup attempt this month. Meanwhile, a number of less-commonly-seen countries have come into the top ten, including Kenya, Suriname and Dominican Republic.

Carnation by John Singer Sargent. Source: Wikimedia Commons

CoupCast is a machine learning based early warning forecasting platform for estimating the risk of illegal leadership turnover each month for every country across the globe. These updates provide insight into technical changes/updates, notable events in the previous month, and a more in-depth overview of what to expect in the new month coming forward.

The official web dashboard for CoupCast can be found here and information regarding the underlying data (REIGN) and updates to our monthly data can be found here.

Feel free to reach out to either myself (mfrank@oneearthfuture.org) or Clayton Besaw (cbesaw@oneearthfuture.org) for any questions regarding our CoupCast platform or analyses contained in the updates.

May 2020 CoupCast Report:

Data and algorithm updates:

Updated precipitation (SPI) estimates using NOAA’s March 2020 PREC/L release (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.prel.html).

Made changes to the inputs for GDP measures related to CoupCast/ELVIS forecasting pipeline. Usually we would update GDP figures using the IMF’s World Economic Outlook release for April. However, COVID-19 has substantially disrupted IMF’s normal process. As a result we have replaced the original IMF GDP input with GDP PPP in international dollars.

Updated armed conflict data to reflect new peace-deals for 2020 and added previously uncoded conflicts for the following countries: Libya, Egypt, Ukraine, Cameroon, Iraq, Iran, United States, United Kingdom, Mali, Philippines, Central African Republic, Somalia, Afghanistan

Corrected leadership coding for Austria. Austria was coded as still having intermin Chancellor Bierlein as the chief executive. This has been changed to reflect Kurz’s return to the position.

Added previously missed information about elections or election delays for the following countries: Guinea, Bolivia, Ethiopia, Dominican Republic

Risk forecast overview for April 2020:

While all of three countries at greatest risk of coup have been regularly featured among the top 10 list this year (Burundi was second last month), this month does feature a number of less common countries in our top 10. Kenya, Suriname, Papua New Guinea, Dominican Republic and Fiji are all making their first appearance in the top 10 for 2020.

There are a number of reasons that we might begin to see different countries come into the top 10 this month.

Newly updated economic indicators from the IMF reflect a fairly drastic economic contraction globally that may be increasing coup risk in individual countries either through country-specific or regional indicators.

That being said, the end to the oil price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia, reached in the middle of last month, could be providing some limited relief to more oil-dependent economies, namely Algeria.

In addition, Covid-19 is causing many countries to delay elections, which can also lead to increased estimates of coup risk. Of the countries in the top 10 this month, the Dominican Republic has delayed their election which was originally scheduled for May 17 but has been pushed back to early July.

However, the elections which are still happening may be more problematic than those that have been delayed. Two countries in our top 10 currently have elections scheduled this month; Burundi and Suriname will hold elections on May 20 and May 25 respectively.

While Burundi will be discussed in more detail below, we will briefly discuss Suriname’s upcoming election as the country’s political and economic situations have been worsening over the past few months.

The country’s economy has been devastated by drops in the prices of oil and gold, while the pandemic has also halted tourism, all three of which are vital sources of income for the country.

In response, the government imposed strict controls on the transfer of foreign currency, outraging Surinamese business owners who have essentially shut down commerce in response.

This move came on top of a revelation in February that the government had withdrawn roughly $100 million dollars in individuals’ personal savings from the country’s central bank, after private banks had been asked last year to deposit half of the foreign currency they held as savings into the central bank.

This scandal led to firings and indictments of a couple officials, but it is still not clear what the money was used for. On top of that, the banking community was understandably not happy with the government’s actions.

That being said, major oil discoveries, made in January of this year, could potentially transform the small country’s economy over the medium term, in a manner similar to its neighbor, Guyana. This could serve to raise the stakes of the election, as the winner may oversee huge investment in the country’s economy.

It is also worth noting several aspects of the incumbent president Desi Bouterse. Bouterse first came to power in 1980 in a military coup, while he was also convicted last year of ordering the execution of 15 of his political opponents in 1982. He was also convicted in absentia in the Netherlands of drug trafficking, while his son is in prison in the United States also due to drug trafficking.

All in all, the situation has the potential to escalate in a number of negative ways as a highly autocratic president seeks to retain office in a high-takes election in which he has alienated the majority of stakeholders in the private sector.