Political Déjà Vu
By: Leslie Loftis
Tags: Campaign Strategy, Political Commentary, Judiciary, Election 2020

Photo by Sebastiaan Hols on Unsplash

The inconceivable Trump victory is coming around again

In 2016 I got it wrong. I thought that Hillary would beat Trump. I wasn’t seeing indicators that had gotten camouflaged. That I wasn’t alone in this mistake brought me little comfort. I adjusted. This time I am watching for those difficult-to-see patterns.

It’s coming around again, the inconceivable Trump victory. It’s not certain, of course. What is? But if the election is about domestic stability, which those camouflaged indicators strongly suggest it may be, then Trump wins. And here’s the kicker, even if Team Biden sees this, I don’t see much they could do to change it.

The violent protests have Americans troubled. They aren’t happening in urban areas we associate with past unrest. They are happening in small town, middle-America communities. And the general perception is Democrats are ignoring, downplaying, encouraging, supporting, or at the very least, allowing the protests to carry on. There’s no fix for that, certainly not in the eight weeks prior to a presidential election when politicians’ credibility is at its ebb.

Piling on, Biden’s recently announced tax plan likely doesn’t help. Americans have been known to vote with their wallets, and sure, that 17% income loss is only for the top 1.5% of earners, but that’s a chunk to take from a demographic that consistently votes. Then, for the few who pay attention to foreign policy, the agreements in the Middle East are a candidate for event of the century and it’s only 2020. (Which is saying something.)

Oh, I know well the appalled, anti-Trump cohort. It is certainly large enough to win, but it has been set for a while. Trump’s flaws were known by 2016. Rehashing or adding details about his character isn’t going to make that cohort grow.

It could shrink, though, and we wouldn’t necessarily know it. To the violence, tax threat, and foreign policy events mentioned above, I add on the instant contempt that comes to anyone who expresses even reluctant support for Trump. Mind-changers aren’t likely to tell friends or pollsters. In short, shy-Trump voter potential is high. Nothing but “Events, dear boy, events” has the potential to change that.

And now, as I finalize this edition, news comes that Justice Ginsburg has passed. This momentous event does not cut the way the conventional wisdom expects. Yes, many voters are now more resolved to vote against Trump — emphasis on “more”. They were already resolved. A Court vacancy does not move their number needle. Even staunch Never Trump types, however, may cast a quiet vote for Trump when a Supreme Court pick is on the line. That’s what happened last time. Trump won many reluctant voters because of judges. This pull is so strong there is discussion among the right about whether it would be better for Trump to delay a nomination until after the election, to motivate any reluctant Trump voters. It won’t happen that way; there will be a nomination if only because Trump’s base expects him to be the guy who fights, but the existence of the discussion is telling.

Months ago, someone in right circles said that the election would be decided by events yet to come. In January of an election year, that isn’t insight so much as common sense, but it sticks with me now because who would have guessed that those events would break so consistently to the President? The potential for movement belongs to Trump.

The above is the introduction to the September edition of The Collection from Iron Ladies. It is a monthly, curated collection of political and cultural commentary by right-of-center women. I started it after the shock of the 2016 election. I believed, (naively, it turns out) mainstream journalists and commentators when they said they wanted to read more broadly, that they didn’t want to be surprised like that again. I tried to make reading right a little easier, convenient even. However, much of that interest to broadly read was for show. And so here we are again. Another shock looms.

The collection of publishings for this month has pieces that support my hunch and others that undercut it. It may be found here. I occasionally post the intro on Medium and did this time because most of my subscribers aren’t the ones who might spend November in a state of shock.