Upper 90 Game of The Day — Arsenal v Chelsea
By: Kyle Newbould
Tags: Chelsea, Football, Preview, Premier League, West Ham

After a Christmas day like no other, Boxing day is business as usual. There’s only one thing to do: watch the footy. With other European league’s opting for a winter break, this weekends GOTD series is a Premier League extravaganza, with all 3 picks across Saturday, Sunday and Monday from the PL.

Saturday’s pick of the games comes from the Emirates, and it’s a London Derby, as Arsenal play host to Chelsea. There can’t have been many occasions when the gap between the two has been so large going into a game, but don’t let that fool you, as they say — form goes out the window on derby day… apparently.

The home side go into today’s game in 15th, after their worst start to a Premier League season sees them with just 4 wins from their opening 14 games. The Gunners are without a win in their last 7 Premier League games — losing 5 of those with only 2 draws and 3 goals to show for it.

Chelsea’s position looks a lot more promising, and after a positive recovery result against West Ham, following back-to-back defeats, they sit in 5th with 25 points. Those 2 defeats are the only ones Frank Lampard’s side have suffered since the 2nd week of the season, going 9 games unbeaten inbetween.

Statistical Analysis

As has already been mentioned, Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal have been in dreadful form, and the club is in crisis after their worst ever start to a Premier League season sees them teetering on the edge of a relegation fight.

Arsenal are managing just 0.86 goals per game at the Emirates this season from an xG/90 of just 1.12. Their total goals tally of just 12 is the 4th lowest in the league, level with Fulham and only ahead of Burnley, Sheffield United and West Brom. They have also failed to score at all in 6 of their 14 Premier League games.

If we take a look deeper into creativity metrics, the picture looks even more bleak. Arteta’s side are averaging just 3.14 shots on target per 90 (joint 5th worst with Brighton), 1.36 goal creating actions per 90 (4th worst) and just 7.29 key passes per game (5th worst). Arteta was keen to talk about numbers during his press conference, but the numbers for Arsenal are far from encouraging, despite the number of crosses which he so proudly preaches.

On the opposite side of the spectrum is Chelsea. They are averaging exactly 2.00 goals every 90 minutes, from an xG/90 of 1.71–4th highest behind Liverpool, Leeds and Villa. Lampard’s side have scored in all but 4 of their league games this season, only drawing blanks to fellow European challengers in Everton, Spurs, Man Utd and Liverpool.

Away from home, however, their goals per 90 does drop slighlty to 1.71 — outperforming their xG/90 of just 1.42 — indicating that they are struggling to produce the same level of performance on their travels. They have also lost their last 2 away from home, meaning Lampard will be depserate to improve their luck away from home.

In head-to-head fixtures, both teams have scored in 4 of the last 5 league meetings, with 2 Chelsea wins, 2 draws, and 1 Arsenal win. This season’s match-up will be completely different, however, with Arsenal as bad as they have ever been.

Tips

Medium Risk Tip — Chelsea race to 5 corners @ 4/5: Both sides are averaging over 10 total match corners per game, with the away side averaging 5.36 corners per 90 mins. Expect them to dominate the ball and create plenty of half-chances against a defensively minded Arsenal side, the kind of chances that lead to corners more often than not.

High-Risk Tip — Half-Time/Full-time: Draw/Chelsea @ 4/1: Expect Arsenal to hold firm in a cagey opening to the derby, as both teams looks to sturdy themselves before pushing too many bodies forward. On average Chelsea score their 1st goal in the 31st minute, and Arsenal concede their 1st goal in the 39th — both of which will be increased in a tense derby. Ultimately, Chelsea will come out on top, and will clinch it in the 2nd half.