A Biden Victory Without the Senate?
By: James Holley
Tags: Democrats, Politics, Government, Election 2020, Elections

Joe Biden has undoubtedly won a decisive victory in the race for the White House, and there is a justified sense of relief in this country as a result. Regaining the blue wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania while flipping Arizona and Georgia has shown that these states were less convinced this time around that President Trump was the right person for the job.

A decisive victory for Biden, but not the absolute sweep that was projected by even some of the most prestigious pollsters. The good news for the Biden campaign was that a nationwide lead of 8 points has room for a historical polling error of around 3–4 points, and that seems to be exactly what happened this year.

I do not mean to pour cold water on this victory, but it is going to be incredibly important for the Democratic Party in government to take a hard look in the mirror as they decide what kind of party they will be going forward.

Why? Because the Republican turnout was outstanding, too. Not enough to clinch the presidency — largely due to the grassroots organizing and urban turnout by people of color in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Minnesota — but enough to provide rather disappointing election results for Congress.

Although Democrats retained the House (they had a 97–99% chance of doing so), the GOP successfully defended every single incumbency and have gained several new seats with a current net gain of +5.

Partially attributable to widespread gerrymandering? Perhaps, but Democrats underperformed on both the generic congressional ballot and in comparison to the presidential vote. Notable GOP flips came from all across the country from southern Florida to the coast of South Carolina and even New Mexico.

The gains Democrats saw as far as the presidential vote goes in the Sun Belt were impressive, but this area is fragile when it comes to holding any kind of consistency. This is evident with the House GOP gains in the states that went for the President-Elect.

As for the Senate, there were not any huge surprises, which comes to the detriment of the Democrats. Solid blue flips came from states where polling had basically guaranteed it: Mark Kelly in Arizona and John Hickenlooper in Colorado. With the red flip in Alabama unseating Senator Doug Jones, the Democrats were only able to net one additional seat and lost in all of the toss-ups that would have secured them a majority.

The silver-lining, of course, is that there are now two Georgia run-offs in January that will determine control of the Senate. Due to the massive organizing in Georgia, like Fair Fight headed by Stacey Abrams, the once solid red state has now turned more competitive than ever with Joe Biden very likely winning the 16 electoral votes this year. Winning both run-offs would shift power to the Democrats by the thinnest of margins: 50–50 with Vice President-Elect Kamala Harris being the tie-breaking vote.

An important take-away from this election is that while there was a massive movement responsible for defeating Donald Trump, this repudiation did not cleanly translate to down-ballot races in the same way. This simply means that, like most people are well-aware already, there is so much work left to be done.

No amount of pandering to the center will make up the 8 point margin the Biden campaign lost by in Ohio.

Progressives and moderates in the party have already started pointing their fingers for these less than ideal congressional results, but there are already signs of misdirected blame toward the left of the party.

Understanding that Biden owes much of his victory to the progressive activism in Detroit, Philadelphia, and Atlanta, there are already prominent public figures blaming progressives for poor performance in a way that is incompatible with reality. John Kasich, the former Republican governor of Ohio, stated on CNN that progressives almost cost Biden the election when it is immensely clear that it’s because of their work he came out on top. My mind instantly goes to Rep. Ilhan Omar in Minnesota.

No amount of pandering to the center will make up the 8 point margin the Biden campaign lost by in Ohio. No matter the kind of campaign Democrats choose to run, the opposition will always use the same vernacular to describe them. So, they might as well run on substantive reform that actually makes people’s lives considerably better such as universal, non-employer tied healthcare, student loan relief, a higher minimum wage.

Recall that Florida, a state Trump won by 3 points, just passed a $15 minimum wage! It’s not nuanced enough to blame progressive policies for defeat when the same policies are democratically voted for in red states.

These policy positions, backed up by a stronger digital advertising machine, can inspire turn-out, combat political apathy among the base, and effectively withstand the inevitable Republican attacks that come each cycle.

One more note on Kasich and others like him: It’s not the anti-union, anti-choice, anti-public education elected officials that Democrats should be taking their campaign advice from anyway.

Democrats should lean into progressive resources to create a more inspiring party that challenges the status quo and establishes greater influence and power in the next election. The last thing anyone wants to think about right now is the 2022 midterms, but it really needs to be the first.