21 Predictions about the Software Development Trends in 2021
By: Md Kamaruzzaman
Tags: Software, Programming, AI, Data, Cloud

1. Centralized Infrastructure: Cloud, cloud everywhere

During COVID-19, most of the industry suffered heavily, albeit a handful of industries. Cloud is the forerunner industry, which actually becomes stronger than ever during the pandemic. If there were any doubt and uncertainty in terms of Cloud adoptions, COVID-19 has wiped that away.

A global-scale catastrophe like Corona showed that we not only need Cloud for upscale, we also need it for down-scaling, i.e., when demand for our services drops significantly. Think about the tourism and transportation industry that has to maintain their expensive data centers, although their market drops 90%.

Forrester predicted Global Public Cloud IT infrastructure market would grow to a whopping 120 Billion USD with 35% growth in 2021:

No matter which industry you are in (Government, Startups, Agriculture, Healthcare, Banking), plan Cloud migration as the entire world moves to Cloud sooner than later. There will be a huge shortage and high demand for Cloud-Native Engineers in 2021 and onwards.

If you are an IT engineer, jump into any MOOC (Massive Online Open Course) to earn your Cloud certificate. The good news is that many of them are offering free months during Covid. Also, the major public cloud providers are offering free courses. Recently the biggest public Cloud provider Amazon has declared that they will give free Cloud Computing training to 29 million people between 2021–2025:

2. Decentralised Infrastructure: Edge Computing will see exponential growth

In contrast to the Public Cloud where we want to have a centralized Data Center for Data and Compute power, there are many scenarios where we want to have the opposite, i.e. the Data and Compute power near the end-user. Some are very low latency (5 to 20 ms), high bandwidth, regulatory reasons, Real-Time use cases, smart and powerful end-user devices, etc.

Although Edge computing is an old concept and we are using Edge Computing in Content Delivery Network (CDN), it is gaining popularity in recent years. With the rise of connected vehicles (autonomous Cars, drones), online gaming, IoT, smart devices, and edge AI/ML, Edge Computing will be a gigantic market in 2021 and beyond. Another key reason Edge computing will be key in 2021 is the rise of the 5G mobile devices.

In 2021, two groups of industries will fight for the market share in Edge computing. One group will be the public Cloud providers like Amazon, Microsoft, Google, as reported here:

Here again, Amazon is the leader with many services like AWS Snow family, AWS IoT Greengrass. Microsoft is also providing edge services with Azure Stack Edge, Azure Edge Zone. Google is also moving its Data Center services to the end-user with Google Anthos.

The other group is the industry that already has the Edge Infrastructure like Telecom Companies, Data Center Providers, Network Providers. If they can move fast and leverage their advantages (i.e., existing Infrastructure), they have the opportunity to lead here. The Hybrid cloud provider RedHat (IBM) will be a key player here with its Hybrid Cloud Platform OpenShift, and engagement in OpenStack. Recently Samsung has joined with IBM to develop Edge Computing solutions:

State of the Edge is the initiative to make Open Standard for Edge Computing to make the Edge computing vendor-neutral. Recently State of the Edge became part of the Linux Foundation. Like CNCF, the State of the Edge will also gain more moment in 2021 and onwards.

Prepare for many innovations, mergers, neck-to-neck fight, and standardization in Edge Computing in 2021 and beyond.

3. Cloud: AWS is leading, but Multi-Cloud will be the future

Among the public Cloud vendors, there is no question about who is the leader. In Q3 2020, Amazon is leading the public Cloud market with a 32% market share, as shown below:

Microsoft had another strong year with its cloud offering and enjoyed 48% annual growth in 2020. In Q3 2020, Microsoft has a 19% market share compared to a 17% market share in Q3 2019.

As it is now, Google is the third-largest public Cloud provider with its 7% market share in Q3 2020.

In 2021, Amazon and Microsoft will keep their position as the first and second spots, respectively. However, Alibaba will take over third place in 2021 as it is just behind Google with a 6% market share in Q3 2020.

Also, the Multi-Cloud initiative will get more momentum in 2021. Many companies also moving to a Multi-Cloud strategy. CIA has recently awarded its Cloud contract to multiple vendors instead of one single vendor:

Until now, Amazon was reluctant to join the multi-cloud initiative to protect its market share. But as we had already seen with Microsoft 10 years ago, the whole industry and community are bigger than the biggest individual company. Recently, Amazon has silently joined the Multi-Cloud initiative:

The Cloud Native Computing Foundation (CNCF) plays a key role in the Multi-Cloud movement and has arguably surpassed the Linux Foundation. In 2021, we can see more growth in the CNCF. Also, Multi-Cloud service providers like HashiCorp will become more important in 2021.

Some outstanding projects also provide API compatibility with popular vendor-specific Cloud Services like MinIO (providing AWS S3 compatible Object Storage). In 2021, there will be more initiatives like MinIO so that we can easily lift-and-shift popular Vendor lock services.

This is good news for the whole industry as I dream of a world where companies can deploy their application in Multiple Cloud seamlessly.

4. Containerization: Kubernetes is the Emperor, and Docker will slip away

Containerization is the Core Technology of the Cloud Native IT, whether Public Cloud, Private Cloud, or even Edge Computing. For several years now, Kubernetes has established itself as the leading Container Orchestration and Management Technology. Like Linux ruled the Data Centers previously, Kubernetes is ruling the Public Cloud and Private Cloud landscape. Initially, Google was the leading force behind Kubernetes, but now almost all Giant Tech companies put their weight behind Kubernetes.

All the major public Cloud providers are now offering managed Kubernetes Service (Amazon EKS, Azure AKS, Google GKE) along with their managed Containerization Services. On the other side, RedHat is offering managed Kubernetes Service in private Cloud with OpenShift.

In 2021, we will see more adoption of Kubernetes as it is the core component in the Hybrid-Cloud or Multi-Cloud strategy. Non-traditional Enterprise applications like AI/ML, Databases, Data Platforms, Serverless, and Edge Computing applications will also move to Kubernetes.

On the flip side, Docker is slowly losing its charm as a Conternization Technology. There are already initiatives to standardize the container format and runtime, and two of them are getting huge traction in recent years. One is the Kubernetes led Container Runtime Interface (CRI). The other one is the Linux Foundation lead Open Container Initiative (OCI).

Recently Kubernetes has deprecated Docker in favor of CRI and planning to remove Docker completely in late 2021 in its upcoming Kubernetes release (1.22):

As Kubernetes is the 800-pound Gorilla in the containerization ecosystem, 2021 will be the beginning of an end for Docker. On the upside, the CRI and OCI will get more momentum in 2021, and especially the CRI based containers will get a huge boost in 2021.

5. Computing: Quantum Computing will get momentum

Quantum Computing is the most revolutionary technology on this list. Like the digital computer, it has the potential to impact every sector. I have created a list of hottest Technology for the 2030s, and Quantum Computing was in the number one spot:

To put into perspective: if we think about today's most advanced Supercomputers as a normal human being, for example, a Chess Player or an 8th-grade math student, then Quantum computing is the Supergenius like Magnus Carles, who can play with 50 average Chess players at a time or genius Mathematician like Euler.

There were some significant breakthroughs and advancements in Quantum computing in 2020. In June 2020, Honeywell claimed that it had created the most powerful Quantum Computer, beating the previous record set by Google:

Only a few days ago, a group of scientists from the University of Science and Technology of China (USTC) showed that Quantum Computer could beat the most advanced classical Supercomputer comfortably for a particular task (Gaussian boson sampling):

Many governments and Tech Giants are exploring and investing in Quantum Computing. Google and IBM are two of the biggest players in this field. Google even launched an open-source library TensorFlow Quantum (TFQ), for prototyping the Quantum Machine learning models:

Amazon is also offering managed quantum computing service via its Amazon Braket Cloud Service.

Considering the massive interest and its infinite possibilities, there will be some breakthroughs and jaw-dropping discoveries in Computer Quantum in 2021.

If you want to explore Quantum Computing, then you can use the Open Source SDK qiskit, which is also offering the free course:

6. Blockchain: The roller coaster ride will continue

Blockchain (Distributed Ledger) is also one of the major disruptive technologies developed in recent times. Technology-wise, it has the potential to change the whole industry. Although Cryptocurrency played a major role in popularizing the technology. It also played a major role in moving the Technology in the “Peak of Inflated Expectations” in Gartner’s Hype Cycle curve.

Many rogue entities capitalized on the popularity of Bitcoin and created scam projects to cheat common people who wanted to be rich in a short time. Now Blockchain is going through the “Trough of Disillusionment” of the Hype Cycle curve. Also, Governments are interfering in Cryptocurrencies to prevent scams. Recently the Chinese government has seized a Cryptocurrency scam “Plus Token Ponzi”:

Facebook released its Cryptocurrency Libra in 2019 but got intense regulatory pressure in 2020:

Other open-source Blockchains like Ethereum are putting a Code in the Block, making it possible to use it as a smart contract, which is the future of Blockchain.

In 2021, Blockchain will be used more as a Smart contract mechanism, and hopefully, it will enter the “Slope of Enlightenment” phase. Blockchain will get a major boost in 2021, as China has put it in its ambitious 500 Trillion “New Infrastructure” plan:

7. Artificial Intelligence: AI will be for all

As one of the hottest Technology in recent times, AI has also seen many breakthroughs in 2020. Another interesting trend is that AI slowly started to enter all sectors with the slogan “AI for all.”

In the natural language processing domain, GPT-3 was the biggest breakthrough that came in May 2020. The US company OpenAI created GPT-3, which has made it possible to create human-like text using Deep Learning. Only after four months, the entire world was simultaneously amazed and shocked when the following Guardian Article was written using GPT-3:

In 2021, there will be a breakthrough in Natural Language Processing, where AI will write articles or write small software programs.

The other interesting development was the AutoML 2.0, which enables Automated feature engineering. In 2021, there will be a major advancement in Full Cycle AI Automation and more democratization in AI.

AI is not unbiased, and ethical AI is getting more traction. Another major trend in AI is explainable AI, which will need an explanation for why AI has taken a certain decision. In 2021, there will be major progress in these fields as the EU has set regulations to explain AI’s decision.

AI will also see major adoption in the Aviation industry in 2021 and beyond. Only a few days ago, the US Air Force used AI as Co-Pilot to fly an Aircraft:

AI will also be the centerpiece in Chinese digital-based infrastructure for the future:

Expects lots of mind-blowing innovations and democratization in AI in 2021.

8. Deep Learning Library: It will be TensorFlow 2.0 and PyTorch

Google and Facebook are the two dominant players in Deep Learning and Neural Network. Google’s key business is searching capability, and it is the leading innovator in Natural Language Processing. Facebook’s key business is a social network, and it has to handle Images, Videos, and Text. In Image processing, Facebook is the tech leader with many innovations.

TensorFlow from Google was the leading library in Deep Learning, but everything changed in 2016 when Facebook released PyTorch. PyTorch used Dynamic Graph instead of Static Graph (used by TensorFlow) and more Python friendly. Google reacted by creating TensorFlow 2.0 in 2019, which copied many PyTorch features (Dynamic Graph, Python friendliness). It also works perfectly with Google’s Collab, a very modern and powerful Notebook. Since then, Google enjoyed the upturn of TensorFlow 2.0’s popularity. Currently, TensorFlow is the most popular Deep Learning framework, according to the Stack Overflow Developer Survey, 2020: