Alberta’s concerning approach to COVID-19 and its potential impact
Tags: Alberta, Canada, Healthcare, Covid 19, Musings

I have called Alberta home for the past 18 years. During these years, I worked hard, paid taxes, and trusted the government to have reasonable (not perfect) public health measures to protect Albertans. The recent changes announced by the Chief Medical Officer of Health, Deena Hinshaw, are far from reasonable! They are unduly risky and fail to protect many Albertans. Hinshaw’s announcements of 13 August 2021 do nothing to mitigate the increasing number of COVID-19 cases or protect schoolchildren who resume school in 2 weeks. It simply deferred the Alberta government’s more reckless changes in public health measures (removal of isolation and restriction of tests for symptomatic individuals) until 27 September 2021. These changes do not have the support of many medical professionals, parents, and Albertans. Organizations such as the Alberta College of Family Physicians, the Alberta Medical Association, and the Canadian Pediatric Association have raised concerns about the changes.

The government of Alberta should not deny Albertans easy access to COVID-19 tests. It is also not acceptable to remove the mandatory isolation and quarantine requirements for people who are COVID-positive and close contacts. COVID-19 is not the flu. Testing allows us to know whether the COVID-19 situation is getting better or not. Testing is the early warning mechanism for letting us know whether public health measures are adequate. Significantly limiting the public’s access to COVID-19 tests hides reality until lagging indicators (e.g., hospitalizations and deaths) start to tell the story. Some may argue that testing wastewater will be sufficient. Where’s the data to show that wastewater testing is a more appropriate form of testing individuals for COVID-19? Reliance on just lagging indicators means that we cannot react to the problem in time.

There’s the issue of children under 12 years who cannot be vaccinated because there are no approved vaccines for them in Canada. What are we doing to protect them? As a dad, I am worried about my daughter being in school without reasonable COVID-19 prevention health measures. Failure to mandate in-class masks at schools poses a significant risk to schoolchildren under 12 years who are 100% unvaccinated. The Alberta government’s decision to leave decisions on masking to schools and school districts is a dereliction of the province’s duties to protect the health of all Albertans.

Removing legal mandates for isolation and quarantine on 27 September 2021 encourages people who test positive for COVID-19 and close contacts to roam around the streets freely. It increases the community spread of COVID-19 across both adults and children. It means there is a higher chance of children contracting COVID-19 at school. While the data from Alberta Health shows that no child in Alberta has died from COVID-19, they still get sick, may require hospitalization, can spread COVID-19, and can suffer from long COVID effects. Alberta reported 21,672 cases for children aged 1 to 9 years, and it reported 32,435 cases for individuals aged 10 to 19 years. Data from the United States show that the wild-spreading dominant delta variant of COVID-19 affects children at a more alarming rate compared to prior variants. As a society, we can reduce this risk by mandating masks in schools and reducing community spread by requiring isolation and quarantine. Ignoring the risks is knowingly putting our unvaccinated children at risk. It is not acceptable to knowingly put children in harm’s way!

Some may argue that children are not adversely affected by COVID-19. The fact is children are “relatively less” affected by COVID-19 compared to other demographics. The keyword is “relative less” affected. The now dominant delta variant of COVID-19 affects children at a higher rate. On 7 August 2021, CNN described why the “idea that kids don’t get hit hard by COVID-19 is losing steam”. The US hospitalization rate is growing (192 children per day as of 3 August 2021 and a 45.7% increase from the week before). The US is 75 times the population of Alberta. Scaling the US numbers down for Alberta, it’s 2.6 children per day. If we adopt the measures announced by Hinshaw, the number will be higher. What if one of those children was your own? Let’s not forget that children can spread COVID-19. 32.5% of Alberta’s population who are 12+ years of age are not fully vaccinated, and 100% of the population under 12 years are not vaccinated. Protecting children helps everyone.

The reality in Alberta is our vaccination number is 57.7% for fully vaccinated people. Our COVID-19 indicators show that the situation is worsening. Hospitalizations increased from 81 (on 25 July 2021) to 161 (15 August 2021) — an increase of 98.8% in three weeks. If this increase continues at the same rate, expect over 200 hospitalizations in two weeks. Daily confirmed cases increased by over 1,906% from 29 (10 July 2021) to 582 (13 August 2021). Alberta’s daily positivity rate increased from 0.5% (10 July 2021) to 7.47% (15 August 2021). Active cases increased from 559 (13 July 2021) to 5,354 (15 August 2021), an increase of 858% in a month. Vaccine effectiveness for delta variant is 57% (partial vaccinated) and 85% (fully vaccinated). It means vaccines fail to protect 3 in 20 people who are full-vaccinated against the delta variant. These are stats from Alberta Health. These metrics will worsen over the next few weeks — and even more so when the 27 September 2021 measures announced by Hinshaw take effect. Unfortunately, we will not know the metrics if the government goes ahead with its plan to limit testing. No tests, no numbers!

My viewpoints and asks in this essay have nothing to do with political ideology. I am seeking what is good for Alberta. Jason Kenney, please don’t make this political. I voted for you and UCP in the 2019 elections because you promised pragmatism and a reasonable balance between fiscal policy and social good. Jason, listen to all views, including those that do not align with yours, and address the real issues.

Transparency for COVID-19 is needed to ensure we make the right decisions and to hold the government accountable. The “data and science” referenced by the Premier and Health Minister should become public information so that we can evaluate it, openly discuss it, and determine whether the government’s approach is right or wrong. Thanks to Hinshaw, we now know that the government’s COVID-19 modeling data failed to predict the latest hospitalization trends by over 62%. The dataset, model, and synthesis should be released immediately for Albertans to review.

Alberta needs common-sense measures for COVID-19. Vaccinations are effective, but this is not sufficient based on our current vaccination rates. The province’s “open for summer” experiment has proven this point. Unvaccinated children need protection from COVID-19 at school, and parents are worried. They need to go to school to get an education. Masking protects children — and we know it worked during the last school year. Testing should also be easily accessible to Albertans who suspect they have COVID-19 symptoms irrespective of severity. It is how we know on time whether public health measures are effective. If people do not know that they are COVID-19 positive, how can they isolate? The province should also cancel its planned removal of public health measures on 27 September 2021. Lastly, Alberta should immediately re-instate legally mandated quarantine for close contacts and bring back contact tracing and notification of close contacts. The data says it is premature to act like the COVID-19 pandemic is over. We cannot yet treat COVID-19 like the flu. If Alberta fails to implement strong public health measures, the COVID-19 situation will rise so much that it overwhelms the health care system and significantly impacts businesses and the economy.

Opinions are my own.