The ISW: W16 NFL Odds & Projections
By: John Culver
Tags: NFL, Hedge Funds, Sports Betting, Handicapping, Lean Startup

APPENDIX & GLOSSARY

How to interpret the ISW’s New Look Tables

p (w) % = Implied win probability per team based on the results stemming from 10,000 monte carlo simulated games (e.g. NYJ won 5,156 / 10,000 simulated games → NYJ’s p(W) % = 51.6%).

Avg. Score = The average (projected) score per team derived from 10,000 simulated games.

Spread = The average point differential between the two average scores.

Avg. Total vs. Market = The average total is equal to the the sum of each team’s average projected scores. The market is what ESPN’s quoted total (‘over /under’) is.

Market Spread = The current line or spread per ESPN’s NFL Daily Lines.

p (cover) % = Estimated likelihood that each team covers the spread given the market spread based on the results of our 10k monte carlo simulations.

p (cover total) % = The likelihood that the total (i.e. the sum of each team’s final scores) goes over ‘O:’ or under ‘U:’ the market total based on 10k monte carlo simulations.

The ISW’s Power Ratings

The ISW employs its proprietary power rating system each NFL season beginning with preseason power ratings that are adjusted weekly according to team performance against the spread (ATS) as well as margin of victory throughout the season.

The ISW’s Power Rating Spread = The difference between each team’s power rating along with a COVID-19 modified home field edge of 1.00 points.

Market Moneyline: The quoted moneyline per ESPN’s NFL Daily Lines.

Est. Fair Value Moneyline: Our estimated fair value price based on the net average ‘Avg p(win) %’ of our estimated win probability along with FiveThirtyEight’s traditional ELO win probability and ESPN’s FPI.*Comparative Efficiency Metrics & Rankings

In addition to The ISW’s intrinsic value Power Ratings system, we research and develop new models utilizing different sets of variables for NFL forecasting and valuation.

Our vanilla cost of points model (CPM) incorporates five data points per team and is employed to produce match-up based projected scores. CPM’s input variables are as follows (per team):

OYPG: average offensive yards per game [unit: yds]

DYPGA: average defensive yards per game allowed [unit: yds]

YPP: yards per point → total offensive yards gained / points for → [yds/pts]

DYPP: yards per points allowed →total defensive yards allowed / points against →[yds/pts]

YPPM: yards per point margin → DYPP-YPP or the net average cost of points in terms of net yards

Points & Plays

PLYS/G: number of offensive plays run per game

DPLYS/G: number of plays run by opponent (or number of plays defense plays per game)

PTSPP: points per play → total points for (offense) / total plays run (offense)

OTSPA: opponent’s points per play allowed → total points allowed / total plays run by opponent

Yardage Efficiencies

RYDS/G: average rush yards gained per game

YPRA: average rush yards per attempt

PYPA: average pass yards per attempt

RYPGA: average rush yards allowed (by defense) per game

PYPGA: average total pass yards (by defense) per game

ORYPA: average rush yards per attempt allowed (be defense) per game

OYPPA: average pass yards allowed per attempt (defense)

Scoring

PPG: average points per game

PPGA: average points per game allowed

TPG: average total points pre game

ASM: average scoring margin → PPG-PPGA

Performance

aATS: average performance against the spread (in points)

ATS w%: record against the spread (ATS)

Win %: current actual win/loss record

Wins: number of actual wins

Pyth W: Pythagorean expected win % → the hypothesized win % based on the following formula:

p(W): estimated win probability based on a each team’s Pythagorean win % derived from the following SABR formula.