The Electoral College For The Win
By: Edward Anderson
Tags: Strategy, Culture, Election 2016, Election 2020, Politics

The Electoral College For The Win

Image from Business Insider

In 2016, everyone thought come January 21, 2017, Hillary Clinton would be sworn in as President of the United States. The election seemed like a slam dunk for a polished politician like Clinton, especially given the opponent was a former reality star who bankrupted four casinos. Since it seemed like the outcome was a given, magazines were printed with Madame President as the headline.

The nation was shocked on November 8, 2016, when Donald J. Trump was projected as the winner. Monday morning quarterbacking started almost immediately. Everyone had an opinion on what Clinton did wrong. Almost no one looked at what Trump did right.

Looking at Trump’s 2016 strategy is what former Vice President and presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden needs to do. By playing the game Trump’s way, Biden stands a chance of winning.

Polls Discounted

In the lead up to election night, every poll showed Clinton enjoying a solid lead over Trump. Indeed, 65 million people voted for her as opposed to the 62 million that voted for him. Democrats and Never Trump Republicans were floored by the results. It was unexpected.

Many people began questioning the legitimacy of the polls. A few of those people accused pollsters of having an anti-Trump stance and that is why their results showed him losing the election. This belief is something that Trump’s supporters have doubled down on the last 4 years.

What seems to escape those that prescribe to this theory is that the sampling size is relatively small. In a country of 330 million, maybe 1,000 are asked their opinion. And those that are asked are usually within one area.

Most polls don’t take the electoral college into consideration.

Electoral Election

Clinton counted on winning states like Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania. Those states made up what the Democrats considered a firewall. What they hadn’t counted on was those states being won by less than 10,000 votes and going to Trump.

But he did.

Going into the election, Trump had a strategy. His brash, racist style was never going to win over the majority of the U.S. population. However, he knew that he could appeal to certain demographics and those people would help him grab the electoral college votes he needed to win. And he played it up, including downplaying the “Grab them by the pussy” tape as guy talk.

Certain hetero guys cheered for him. They envied Trump’s alleged ability to get women. They wanted to be like him. He was their hero. He would be their president.

Except he isn’t.

How Biden Wins

Instead of being the “everyday guy” president, his base had hoped he would be, Trump has been the billionaire’s president. Proving time and again if you aren’t part of the one percent then he wants nothing to do with you. That coupled with his handling of the coronavirus and a crashing economy, have the experts believing he is as vulnerable as any incumbent in recent memory.

Once again people are waving the Democrat flag and pronouncing the election over before it begins. That is a fallacy that will ensure Trump stays in office for another term. Biden needs to keep his eyes on the prize.

What he needs to do is focus on the electoral college maps. During the primaries, people wrote him off as a has been. They believed either Senator Bernie Sanders or former Mayor Pete Buttigieg would end up with the nomination. Yet, Biden stayed in the race week after week, loss after loss, until South Carolina turned everything around for him.

The former vice president knows a little something about the long game. He also knows what it’s like to have opponents ganging up on him. Brushing off Trump’s inevitable insults will give him a head start but convincing former Trumpers that he is the guy for them will be a challenge. One he is hopefully up for.

Running Mate Blues

Many people are speculating who Biden will choose as his running mate. He has already announced that it will be a woman. Some people, like The View co-host Sunny Hostin, believe he needs to choose a woman of color. Their rationale is that black women brought his campaign back from the dead and therefore his choosing a woman of color would be a way of saying thank you. It would also encourage people of color to get out and vote.

There’s a fallacy in that argument. While people coming out to vote is important, there needs to be some consideration for the electoral college aspect. Stacey Abrams is a great choice and represents everything the Democrats claim to stand for. She also hails from a state that carries 16 electoral college votes.

Another contender who comes from a state with 16 electoral college votes is Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer. The difference between the two women, besides race, is Michigan has gone blue more recently than Georgia has. Something that needs to be considered. Whitmer has also seen her star rise over the last few months, with many heaping praise on her for how she has handled the coronavirus pandemic.

The pandemic has led people to wonder if he would choose former opponent, Senator Kamala Harris, as his running mate. The two had a viral moment during a debate and Harris did endorse him enthusiastically. However, she hails from California which is reliably a state Democrats carry. Further, she is a senator and with the Dems looking to strengthen their standing in the upper chamber of Congress, Harris is an unlikely candidate currently.

History has already repeated itself in 2020 with the covid-19 crisis, many hope come November it will not repeat again. If Biden plays the game right, he could evict Trump from the White House and restore sanity.