Youth Voting in the 2016 & 2017 Elections 🙋🏽‍️🙋🏼‍📈
By: Farhan Mustafa
Tags: Data Science, Elections, Culture, News, Politics

by Hamdan Azhar and Farhan Mustafa @Grafiti

Youth voting up 31% from 2013 Gubernatorial elections in Virginia, reflecting nationwide uptick for youth voting in 2016 Presidential elections.

Last week, in the Virginia gubernatorial election, Democratic candidate Ralph Northam handily defeated Republican Ed Gillespie, 54–45%, in the highest turnout Virginia governor’s race in two decades. Now, the latest analysis by the research group CIRCLE at Tufts University finds that voter turnout among young people aged 18–29 doubled to 34% in 2017 compared to just 17% in 2009. (In contrast, youth voting was stable in the New Jersey governor’s race.)

​The Census Bureau has published estimates of voting rates by age group for presidential elections dating back to 1964. They find systematic and consistent differences in voting rate, with over 60% of people aged 45+ voting in 2012, compared to 49% of 25–44 year olds, and just 38% of 18–24 year olds. Youth voting since the Reagan era peaked under the election of President Obama in 2008 — and despite suffering a sharp drop in 2012, notably increased in 2016.

Youth voters tend to come out strong after 8-year terms, perhaps excited by voting for change. But youth voting during presidential elections shows different patterns. While youth voting suffered its largest drop during President Clinton’s mid-term election, it surged to its highest jump during the President Bush’s mid-term election in 2004, a trend that continued through President Obama’s 2008 election. After a drop in 2012, youth voting jumped slightly again during the 2016 elections.

​Youth voting also differs greatly between states. In the 2012 presidential election, across the United States, 38% of 18–24 year olds cast ballots. However, in Hawaii, Texas, and West Virginia, the voting rate among 18–24 year olds was under 23%. Only five states had a voting rate of at least 50% among 18–24 year olds, with Mississippi leading the nation at 62%. In comparison, in the same election, the average voting rate among 25+ year olds was 59%, a difference of 21 percentage points. Moreover, the voting rate among 25+ year olds was greater than 50% in forty nine out of fifty states. (California came in 50th place at 49.3%).

The 2014 midterm elections were especially poor in terms of youth turnout. In fifty out of fifty states, voting rate among 18–24 year olds was under 30%, with Maine leading the nation at 30% and Hawaii coming in last at 8.3%. (Ed: it also led to a horrible mustard stain of a chart below, but we decided to keep it, to remind us of the stain on our democracy :/)

Turnout among adults aged 25 and older, while lower than it was in presidential election years, was still strong especially in Maine (64%) as well as Colorado, Wisconsin, and a handful of other mostly Midwestern states where there were key Senate races.

Youth voting in the 2016 presidential elections was slightly higher compared to 2012, overall, with noticeable increases in voting rate among 18–24 year olds in Kentucky (from 37% to 51%), Nebraska (from 36% to 50%), and Wyoming (from 32% to 53%).

The adults, however, while showing significantly higher turnout than youth voters, actually declined in total voter turnout compared to the 2012 presidential elections.

Let’s hope the recent trend in Virginia hints at wider youth participation — and actually lead to a bump in mid-term elections in 2018! Chances are that it might not happen, given the history of voting patterns. Voting among all age groups drops during mid-term elections in relation to presidential elections. However, the 2018 elections will be the biggest test of Trump’s populist politics, with even more at stake than in previous elections — a nation’s sanity.

What do the youth voting numbers look like in your state? And what should we do about it? Leave us a comment below with your thoughts!