13 Post-Election Reasons I Feel Relieved
By: Nicholas Grossman
Tags: Supreme Court, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Election 2020, Politics

The 2020 election was the inflection point I couldn’t see past. Something big was going to happen that would reshape whatever came next, and while we could game out various scenarios, we couldn’t know what it’d be like until after.

Now that it’s after, I feel relieved.

1 — I’m relieved that Election Day went smoothly. The pandemic didn’t disrupt voting, thanks to lessons learned from disrupted primaries, and many new volunteers working the polls. A record-setting number turned out to answer one of the biggest questions in American history.

2 — I’m relieved that Biden is poised to win. Well, mostly I’m relieved that Trump isn’t. When I wrote that Trump posed a threat to American democracy, I meant it.

Yes, a lot of people voted for him, which indicates deep, lasting divisions of core values. And yes, his myriad lies about the election will do lasting damage to public legitimacy, no matter how it goes. But still, at this stage, states’ official counts giving Biden an Electoral College majority is the most important thing. By far. It takes away the legitimate claim to power Trump won in 2016.

3 — I’m relieved that the election isn’t that close. It appeared close, because pollsters set high expectations, much of pre-election discourse revolved around a Democratic sweep — filibuster? court packing? — and Florida happened to go first. FiveThirtyEight forecast the state as Biden +2.5, it usually counts quickly, and an early call for Biden would indicate a blowout. As Florida trended Trump, the New York Times prediction needle assumed regional correlation, lowering Biden’s odds in North Carolina and Georgia, and the narrative turned negative for Democrats. But if Michigan and Arizona were the states that happened to count quickly, while Florida and North Carolina took a while, the story of Election Night would’ve been different.

4 — It’s not a blowout, but it isn’t that close. And I’m relieved it isn’t that close because it makes electoral shenanigans much harder. As expected, Trump is filing lawsuits and baselessly claiming fraud. But he was going to do that regardless. If no one was leading and it came down to a single state, like Pennsylvania, then efforts to stop the count or throw out mail-in ballots would stand a greater chance of success. Biden won the Hillary states and added Wisconsin and Michigan (already called), and probably Arizona (called by Fox and AP). Nevada looks good, so does Pennsylvania, and either Arizona and Nevada together or Pennsylvania alone would put Biden over the top.

5 — I’m relieved Trump wasn’t winning on Election Night. His long-apparent plan was to disrupt mail-in voting, encourage supporters to vote in person on Election Day — including by dismissing COVID concerns — and declare victory that night, calling any votes counted afterwards illegitimate. The lawyers were ready, and Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh created a legal pretext for stopping vote counts in a heavily- criticized concurring opinion.

We can see the plan playing out in Pennsylvania now. As of Thursday morning, Trump leads with 89 percent counted, but a lot of the uncounted ballots are mail-ins from Philadelphia. If the official count shows Biden in the lead, Trump will say he won and Biden cheated (without evidence, of course). But too many states were still counting Tuesday night, and by midday Wednesday, Biden was leading in enough states for an Electoral College majority. Now Georgia’s coming down to the wire. A Biden victory in the deep south would be a big statement, and no matter who wins it’s likely close enough for a recount. Trump’s hoped-for narrative didn’t happen.

6 — I’m relieved that, with many states in play rather than just one, the Supreme Court is less likely to play a decisive role. The Trump campaign has filed suits to stop vote counting in Michigan and Pennsylvania, but Biden’s already leading in Michigan, and the count in Pennsylvania continues. Overall, it looks like the judiciary wants to stay out of it. And while the Supreme Court could break a tie for Trump — as it did for Bush in 2000 — the Justices are unlikely to intervene to overturn results, especially not in multiple states.

7 — I’m relieved that Fox News is the one that called Arizona before other networks and that they stuck to the call under pressure. Fox’s commentators might spin for Trump, but its decision desk isn’t politicized. The post-voting stage of the election is being fought through the media, as Trump tries to convince people of his preferred narrative, even if the facts aren’t there. When Fox calls a state for Biden, reality intrudes.

8 — That’s relieving because it reduces the chances the institutional Republican party puts its weight behind Trump’s efforts to retain power. And they don’t seem especially interested. For example, the former governor of Wisconsin, Republican Scott Walker, publicly expressed skepticism that a recount in his state would be worth it, given Biden’s solid lead.

9 — I’m relieved there were no apparent cyber attacks, such as alterations to voter rolls. Either the U.S. thwarted them, or adversaries calculated that the election was likely out of shenanigans range and getting caught interfering against Biden would prompt retaliation when he became president.

10 — I’m relieved there were no big incidents of voter intimidation. Militias didn’t “observe” polling places. Pro-Trump demonstrations at vote tabulating locations in Arizona and Michigan created some difficulties for workers entering and exiting the buildings, but have not disrupted the count.

11 — I’m relieved that problems with the U.S. Postal Service didn’t create too many difficulties for mail-in voting. Worried about delays, many remote voters sent their ballots early or dropped them off in person.

12 — I’m relieved these negative scenarios didn’t materialize, but I don’t think I worried for nothing. Far from it. By sounding the alarm early, we prepared for and discouraged them. That doesn’t mean they definitely would’ve happened and we stopped them — we’ll never know — just that the risks were high enough for reasonable concern. In essence, we Y2K-ed the election.

13 — Democrats aren’t feeling relieved about the Senate, and I understand why. They dreamed of major legislation and substantial reform, and now they’re looking at gridlock. But while they didn’t get an overwhelming repudiation of Trumpism, and probably didn’t win the Senate (barring a late surprise in Alaska and success in upcoming Georgia run-offs), Biden voters should feel pretty relieved.

Many of the things Trump critics dislike come from executive power. The family separation policy, travel bans, and trade wars are all executive actions. So is politicizing the Department of Justice, the Director of National Intelligence, and the Center for Disease Control. Foreign policy is almost entirely controlled by the president, including NATO, the Iran nuclear deal, and the Paris Climate Accords. Executive orders can remove or impose substantial environmental regulations.

The media pays so much attention to Trump because he’s president. His lies are consequential because he’s president. A lot of people do what he tells them to do because they’re required to, and others because they want to be closer to power. He is our face to the world and a daily presence in our lives because of his position, and when he isn’t, the change will be dramatic.

It isn’t over until Trump’s out of office. There are serious risks in the transition period, including potential for violence, and then tons of problems to deal with, some of which we won’t solve.

But the chances Trump will still be in power three months from now are a lot lower than they were three days ago. And for that, I feel relieved.