The New Road to Kabul
Tags: Afghanistan, India, United Nations, Central Asia, USA

Hello friends, as we were discussing Afghanistan last time, let’s take a look at the dynamics of Indo- Afghan ties and India’s role as a regional player in the Afghan jigsaw puzzle. As May 2021 is about to end, US withdrawal apparently seems to be on the door by September. It becomes crucial to understand for Indians as a new set of concerns are waiting for us with this monstrous pandemic at the helm.

The major standout of the relationship is the huge development assistance to Afghanistan. India is the largest regional donor to Afghanistan with 3 billion $ assistance. It has built over 200 schools, hospitals, Afghan Parliament building. The top cherry is the Salama dam giving the hydroelectric capacity to Afghanistan. Recently announced Shahtut dam is expected to be completed in few years.

Afghan leaders give the status of Brother to India publicly. In this brotherly relationship, India’s stand on the Afghan peace process was Afghan-led, Afghan-owned, Afghan-controlled peace process. India refused to engage in talks with the Taliban. Let’s keep in mind that the Taliban in power means more concerns about internal security especially on the Kashmir border. History says so.

However, India changed the stance with the US- Taliban peace deal last year. India is willing to engage in talks. It may seem that India was pushed out of the process by USA itself to keep Pakistan in good books and not to antagonize it. Let’s recall that Pakistan is the major player in US strategy to control the Taliban. India has realized that it’s not going to work for it if it stays outside of the process and delivers well wishes through its assistance.

US troops were supposed to withdraw by May 1 according to the deal in February 2020. It is argued that Trump Administration has given leverage to the Taliban by declaring a definite date of withdrawal. Biden Administration has created certain vagueness in withdrawal to control Taliban’s double-winning dice. Taliban is following the approach of opposing ceasefire and unleash its violence to gain more power.

One has to see India’s entry in Afghan talks against this backdrop. It has decided to actively engage in the process. The rush of Afghan leaders in New Delhi symbolizes that. National Security Adviser of India, Ajit Doval also visited Afghanistan in January this year. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar recently talked of “Double Peace” in Afghanistan. Peace within Afghanistan and Peace on its borders.

This brings us to the big picture of India’s entry. Double peace was a signal towards Pakistan and China. They both are seeking every opportunity to get leverage in Afghanistan and keep India out of it. China’s interest is a new development because of its One Belt, One Road Initiative. (OBOR) Also, India’s growing stakes in Central Asia, concerns regarding Chabahar port in Iran, changing dynamics in the Gulf- all these factors have implications to India’s Foreign Policy- political connectivity to Central Asia through land route, oil prices, internal security, etc.

USA has laid down two conditions of withdrawal now. First- Unity within Afghan government and Second- UN-led regional dialogue of envoys from India, Pakistan, Russia, US, and China. India’s entry also gives potential clout to the Afghan government in negotiations. These talks are going to continue at least in near future. India’s morally resolute stand with the Afghan government can positively impact the talks and possible outcomes for a stable, secure, and economically dynamic Afghanistan.