Year in Review: Atlas 2020
By: Susan Paykin
Tags: Data Visualization, Year In Review, Public Health, Covid 19, Spatial Analysis

By Kenna Camper, Laura Chen, Dylan Halpern, & Susan Paykin

As we approach 2021, we are all reflecting on one of the most significant challenges of 2020: the onset and spread of COVID-19. Here at the Center for Spatial Data Science at University of Chicago, we are proud to have led a coalition of researchers, data scientists, and public health experts in creating the US COVID Atlas, a real-time data visualization tool that helped monitor COVID rates and geographies since March.

The Atlas facilitate access to current and historical COVID data at the local level. Here, a 3D map showing the 7-day average rate of confirmed COVID cases per 100K people, from March through December, across U.S. counties. Created by Dylan Halpern.

From launching the Atlas in late March, to identifying regional- and county-level COVID hotspots, to expanding our focus on vulnerable communities, we have had a busy and impactful year.

Read on for our top highlights of 2020, followed by a preview of what’s next for the Atlas in 2021.

Top 5 Highlights of 2020

1. Identified regional hotspots for mitigation

The maps on the Atlas are not static — they are interactive and quickly provide access to multiple sources of COVID data over time for historical exploration. We include statistical hotspots using spatial statistics of both the total number of cases and adjusting for population to support decision-making.

Hotspots representing clusters of counties are updated daily. Users can select total count or rate-adjusted confirmed cases (or death counts) to track the most recent changes in COVID.

We’ve highlighted communities who have and continue to be disproportionately impacted, such as the persistent regional supercluster in the Navajo Nation and those across the southern Black Belt in Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia.

2. Tracked patterns over time

The Atlas tracked patterns and visualized changes over time to better understand the distribution and spread of COVID in different regions. In November, our Principal Software Engineer Dylan Halpern visualized the spread of COVID in a striking 3D animated graphic. (An updated version through December is featured above.) Tracing the rise of pandemic over time and across U.S. geographies through October, the visualization resonated with the broader public and helped forecast the high rates of infection in the Midwest and Upper Plains states that the county’s saw in November and into December.

We also investigated the policies and practices that play a role in mitigating or containing viral spread. Over the summer, Research Fellow Ryan Wang investigated the status of contact tracing across the country, highlighting correlations between state-wide contract tracing and current COVID rates. He also provided updates on the newest nation-wide testing data which was integrated and is now available in the Atlas.

3. Helped forecast viral spread at state and county levels

The Atlas served as a power tool to help identify COVID spillovers across state borders, emerging from one county to another and those nearby. In addition to these spatial trends, we also added forecasting statistics to help support healthcare supply distribution efforts through short-term prediction of county-level case rates.

The Hospitality Severity Index, compiled by the Yu Group at UC Berkeley Statistics and EECS, helps to forecast the severity of the pandemic for counties, as well as hospitals across the U.S. This includes health resource availability, COVID health risk factors, and other social mobility information. Combined with the additional spatial and temporal features of the Atlas, the 5-Day Severity Index helps forecast trends and identify where hospitals and healthcare providers will need more support and resources.

4. Highlighted vulnerable communities

We added additional data and area overlay options to allow users to explore community health and social determinant of health (SDOH) indicators at state and county levels. Data variables sourced from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation’s County Health Rankings include average life expectancy, percentage of elderly population (65+), and percentage of population without health insurance — all of which are indicators of some of the most vulnerable demographics impacted by the pandemic.

Available overlays in the Atlas highlight areas where there are significant racial and ethnic minority populations (Native American Reservation, Black Belt Counties) or cities where there are significantly high rates of segregation (Hyper-Segregated Cities). An enormous body of research has shown that COVID has impacted Black, Latinx and Native American communities at disproportionate rates due to social determinants of health, including racism and discrimination and income and education gaps. Promoting research to inform policy and planning in these regions is one important way we can help mitigate COVID’s disproportionate impact.

We plan to integrate additional SDOH variables and data sources in the Atlas to deepen our understanding of these trends.

5. Identified emerging risks

The Atlas allowed users to watch hotspots progress or diminish over time, indicating areas of emerging risk early on. There may be several factors leading to the emergence of high-risk clusters or areas. When data showed COVID infections spreading in states like NY, CA and FL early on in the pandemic spread, we pulled American Community Survey data on household structure and identified correlations between states with high rates and high rates of multigenerational households. Using the Atlas, we observed in real-time how this normally beneficial living arrangement instead became a health liability during the pandemic.

What’s Next in 2021

We are excited to be working on new features and upgrades to the Atlas coming in 2021, including custom date range selections, new data sets, more powerful figures, and improved interface design. The updates are well underway, but we need your help to make sure that the changes we’ve made work with how you use or might use the new Atlas. Give it a spin here and let us know your thoughts on the feedback form.

We are also planning to expand our focus on vulnerable communities and the impacts of social determinants of health (SDOH) on the reach and spread of COVID. This will include more data variables and resources added to the Atlas and visualization features that make it easier to view and interact with the data. We also plan to work with community partners in deepening their understanding of why, where, and how these trends emerge, particularly in communities of color and marginalized populations.

Finally, as the first two COVID vaccines are administered, we’ll be closely monitoring data on vaccine access and implementation. While data on national vaccination rates has started to become available as of late December, we know that domestic state- and county-level reports will be invaluable in pandemic planning and ensuring vaccinations are equitably distributed.

Staying safe

While the COVID-19 vaccines are starting to be distributed throughout the U.S., the most recent data shows that the virus continues to spread. COVID is still infecting people at high rates across the Midwest, Rust Belt, Northern Plains, Southwest, and other regions. There remains an urgent need for data-informed pandemic response and planning.

As per CDC guidelines, it is important to practice certain measures to help us all remain safe into the new year. Maintain social distancing, wear a mask, wash your hands regularly, and stay home when possible.

We look forward to bringing you new updates and research insights from the Atlas in 2021!

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Graphics by Laura Chen.