Top Teams Likely to Exceed Expectations in 2020
By: Jacob Burns
Tags: Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos, NFL, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Baltimore Ravens

Top Teams Likely to Exceed Expectations in 2020

Five teams that should go over their projected win totals

NFL football is officially back this Thursday. It’s felt like forever since the Kansas City Chiefs defeated the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl 54. While both of those teams figure to be great again this season, it’s really anybody’s guess. 2020 is a new season, and change always occurs. Consider the playoff teams from 2018 and 2019. Of the 12 2018 playoff teams, only seven returned to the postseason last year. Similarly, of the 12 playoff teams in 2017, only five made the playoffs in 2018. It’s fair to say that this trend will likely continue this season. That means the door opens up for teams to exceed expectations for the upcoming season. Below, I will name the five teams most likely to surpass their 2020 projected win totals (via OddsShark).

Denver Broncos

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Projected win total: 7.5

Last year’s 7–9 record for the Denver Broncos isn’t as disappointing as it may appear. This is mainly due to the promise Denver saw in rookie quarterback Drew Lock down the stretch. Once Lock became the starter, Denver had a 4–1 record with their only loss coming against the Chiefs. Lock performed well, completing 64% of his throws for 1,020 yards, seven touchdowns, and three interceptions. Lock also became the first rookie QB to pass for 300 yards and three touchdowns in their first road start. Denver decided to go all in on Lock this upcoming season by adding Jerry Jeudy, K.J. Hamler, and Melvin Gordon to an offense that already has Courtland Sutton, Noah Fant, and Philip Lindsay. While their offense has the chance to be special, Denver’s defense should also cause opponents issues. The team added A.J. Bouye and Jurrell Casey to a unit that still has Von Miller, and is returning Bradley Chubb from injury. Denver has the necessary tools to make the playoffs, and easily eclipse their projected win total this season.

Atlanta Falcons

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Projected win total: 7.5

Much like with Denver, a 7–9 record for the Falcons last year was no call for celebration. If you look deeper however, a lot of positives came out of the second half of Atlanta’s season. After starting 1–7, the Falcons switched defensive coordinators. The move proved to be vital, and led to a 6–2 record over the final eight games. That second half run also included victories over the New Orleans Saints and San Francisco 49ers. Atlanta made efforts to assure their defense would continue their second half of the year play into this upcoming season as well. They drafted cornerback A.J. Terrell in the first round, and signed pass-rusher Dante Fowler Jr. in free agency. The team should also get a defensive boost with players like Deion Jones and Keanu Neal being fully healthy. On offense, the Falcons are still loaded with Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and company. They also added Todd Gurley to help balance out the unit. If the defense holds up their end of the bargain, then Atlanta should return to the playoffs, and surpass their win total.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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Projected win total: 9.5

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are starting to look like a team of destiny. The team took an already good offense and made it special. They swapped Jameis Winston for Tom Brady, added Rob Gronkowski to a solid tight end group, and signed running back Leonard Fournette. All of this while still having the best receiving duo in the NFL (Mike Evans and Chris Godwin). There’s weapons galore for Tom Brady to thrive this season. Along with a powerhouse offense, Tampa Bay’s defense is sneaky underrated. They allowed the fewest rushing yards per game last season. The defensive unit also had the seventh-most sacks, and fifth-most takeaways last year. This is even more impressive considering they were constantly being placed in a bad position due to Jameis Winston’s turnovers. With Winston gone, the defense should be on the field less, which will likely lead to improvements. The talent on Tampa Bay’s roster makes them a serious Super Bowl contender, thus easily passing their projected win total.

Minnesota Vikings

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Projected win total: 9

After being viewed as having one of the most complete rosters in football last season, the Vikings decided to make some changes. They traded disgruntled receiver Stefon Diggs, while cutting cornerback Xavier Rhodes and defensive end Everson Griffen. Minnesota however, did a great job at filling those new holes during the offseason. They drafted LSU receiver Justin Jefferson in the first round of the NFL draft. They also drafted two cornerbacks in the first three rounds (Jeff Gladney and Cameron Dantzler). The Vikings then made a big splash, trading for defensive end Yannick Ngakoue. Minnesota has many key pieces remain that led to them finishing in the top eight of both points per game and points allowed per game as well. Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, Danielle Hunter, and Harrison Smith all are still with Minnesota. Couple that with a division that contains the historically dysfunctional Lions and the Bears who’re dealing with a QB situation, and you have a Minnesota team that has a great chance at winning the division. Nine wins just seems too low, as the Vikings have the makings of a team that can easily win 10 or 11 games this season.

Baltimore Ravens

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Projected win total: 11.5

While it may be difficult to exceed such high expectations, I believe the Baltimore Ravens have a chance at something extremely special this season. There’s a real possibility the Ravens finish this season with a perfect 16–0 record. Yes I know it sounds crazy, but let’s look a little deeper. Last year Baltimore’s offense was historic. They became the first team ever to average at least 200 yards per game passing and rushing. They also averaged the most points per game (33.2) behind MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson. Their defense was also dominant, finishing in the top five in total yards allowed per game, and points allowed per game. But here’s the thing, Baltimore only got better this offseason. On defense they added Calais Campbell, Derek Wolfe, and Patrick Queen. On offense they added Ohio State running back J.K. Dobbins to their already dominant ground game. Baltimore also didn’t lose many key contributors during the offseason. Besides Marshall Yanda, the only notable loss is Earl Thomas, who is proving to not be worth the headaches and distractions. The Ravens still have Lamar Jackson, Mark Ingram, Mark Andrews, Marlon Humphry, and Marcus Peters, along with an offensive line ranked fifth by Pro Football Focus. Baltimore also has the easiest schedule based on opponents win percentage last season. While 16–0 may seem a little far-fetched, it’s not impossible. Either way it’s much more than the projected 11.5 wins.