⚡️ What to expect soon in the market — CBOE Bitcoin ETF approval in September ?
By: Yann Quelenn
Tags: Trading, Cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, Tether, Chainfund Report

⚡️ What to expect soon in the market — CBOE Bitcoin ETF approval in September ?

Chainfund weekly report 18/08/2018

Dear Investors,

As of the 18th of July, the share prices of our portfolios are the following: $68 for the Dynamic and $74 for the Extreme.

According to the BITMEX platform, we can see that around 80% of the traders are positioning themselves on the short side. Such a discrepancy between bulls and bears does not happen much but when it does, we rarely see a correction validating the majority’s view.

I recall that most of the traders of trading platforms are retail traders and they trade with leverage (sometimes crazy leverage up to 100x their balance). For exchanges, witnessing such a retail trader positioning is also a great way to make money. How? By liquidating the shorts by pushing the BTC price higher. Exchanges have a clear incentive to do that such as Bitfinex and Bitmex. I recall that we are in an unregulated market and this is not illegal just not moral. I do not state that this is the exact scenario. I just make an hypothesis on why we see the BTC price going up while everyone seems to be bearish.

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On top of that, we have also seen an increase of the Tether supply (linked to Bitfinex) of $50 million. This may be only people buying Tether but Tether has also been accused to have propped the Bitcoin price to 20k. I do not own evidence of any of it. I am just mentioning that the short-term timeframe of crypto-currencies is very uncertain as this market is highly manipulated.

In the grand scheme of things, I am bullish on both BTC and Alts. While the market is purely emotional and tend to overlook many fundamentals, I believe that the news regarding the crypto market have been really good. In particular institutionals are getting ready to tackle this market (custody solution, trading desk etc… ). The recent pump of the altcoins is seen as a fake rally meaning underlining the overall bearish sentiment. We witnessed some despair phase on forums & Twitter from bagholders.

CBOE President Still Optimistic On Bitcoin ETF Prospects Despite SEC Action (https://xbt.net/blog/bitcoin-blog/cboe-president-still-optimistic-on-bitcoin-etf-prospects-despite-sec-action/)

What to expect soon in the market: I do not see a decline of Bitcoin below 5.5k 6k which represents a strong support especially knowing the awesome recent development of the blockchain and cryptos industry. I also expect the CBOE ETF to be accepted in September. By the way let me tackle the fact that many says that Wall Street Bankers will push the SEC to postpone the ETF approval in order to push down the cryptos prices and enter at lower price. In my opinion, the first ETF will largely benefit from a first mover status and the competition with other countries to provide those types of product is also very important. I would say that we will see the CBOE Bitcoin ETF approval in September.

The latest report from Bloomberg suggests that CBOE Global Markets Inc.still wants to be the first to get its Bitcoin ETF approved by the SEC. In a recent interview to the news publication, CBOE president and COO, Chris Concannon said:

“As we chip away at their issues to make them less concerned, at some point they’ll be comfortable with an ETF.” (https://www.coinspeaker.com/2018/08/15/cboe-wants-to-be-the-first-in-the-race-of-bitcoin-etf-approval/)

Talk to you next week,

Yann Quelenn