Key Takeaways from French Open 2019
By: Indika Jayasinghe
Tags: Sports Analytics, Roger Federer, French Open, Tennis, Rafael Nadal

French Open 2019 concluded on 9th June with the familiar sight of Rafael Nadal holding the “Coupe des Mousquetaires” for the twelfth time at Stade Roland Garros as predicted in my previous article.

Let’s take few minutes to look back at the key talking points of the men’s tournament.

Rafael Nadal with the Coupe des Mousquetaires for the twelfth time (Source — https://www.nationalpost.com)

King of Clay continues rule in Parisian Clay

As usual, Rafa Nadal demoralized his opponents once again en route to his twelfth title only loosing 2 sets in the process.

Was this result ever in doubt at the start of the tournament?

Yes, there were major concerns about his confidence prior to his victory at the Italian Open. Coming back from string of injuries, Nadal struggled at Monte Carlo, Barcelona and Madrid losing at the semifinals of each tournament. His performance against Novak Djokovic at Italian Open can be considered as the moment that everyone realized that he is back to his unbelievable best at clay.

Did he have a favorable draw?

Positioning of Dominic Thiem was the biggest question mark prior to the draw. Avoiding him in a potential semifinal makes Nadal’s draw more favorable compared to Djokovic’s.

Can we anticipate a repeat in 2020?

It will be hard to look beyond the three time defending champion with a 93–2 (win percentage = 97.9%) record at Roland Garros. Eventually someone will end Rafa’s dominance at Roland Garros. However, going by the performances of this year, it would be difficult to assume that it will happen in 2020.

Philippe Chatrier court needs a retractable roof

It is understandable that tournament organizers can’t do much about weather conditions affecting the matches. Even though, weather related delays at the early stages of the tournament does not have a major impact on the final outcome of the tournament, interruptions at quarterfinal and semifinal stages can be detrimental for the affected players.

Dominic Thiem had to play his quarterfinal, semifinal and final matches on four consecutive days due to rain interruptions whereas Nadal had a day to rest before the final. Having a roof over Chatrier court could’ve ensured both players had equal time to rest and regroup before the final.

Same can be told about the windy conditions observed during the semifinal match between Nadal and Federer. Fans would’ve been treated with much more entertaining encounter between the two greats if the conditions were much better.

Windy conditions at Philippe Chatrier affected the blockbuster semifinal between Nadal and Federer (Source — https://www.sportingnews.com)

Thiem proves that he is not far away from winning it all

This is the fourth consecutive time he reached semifinals or better at French Open and all four times he lost to the eventual winner (2016 — Djokovic, 2017–2019 — Nadal). Even though, he hasn’t won any masters tournaments on clay, his consistency in French Open over the past 3 years is only second to Rafael Nadal.

The courage and mental strength he demonstrated against Djokovic in the semifinal despite multiple weather interruptions shows the depth in Thiem’s capabilities. Although the 25 year old Austrian seems to be destined to win French Open in future, whether he can do it by defeating Rafa in a final remains to be the big question.

Dominic Thiem reached his second consecutive French Open final beating Novak Djokovic (Source — https://www.india.com/sports/)

Magnificent Roger exceeds expectations

Most experts didn’t think Roger Federer will go beyond quarterfinals on his return to French Open after three years. However, 37 year old reached the quarterfinal without dropping a set and defeated a resurgent Wawrinka in four sets to set up a semifinal showdown against his arch rival Nadal. Even though, Nadal made short work of Federer in difficult windy conditions, the impressive showing at Roland Garros silenced most of his critics. In addition, his clay court run assured the following;

Federer can become the second seed in the Wimbledon 2019 with a victory at Halle Open

His performances at Madrid, Rome and Paris earned him 1080 points which enables him to overtake Nadal if he manages to win the 2019 Halle Open according to the surface-based seeding system used at Wimbledon.

Federer can become the second seed at Wimbledon 2019 (Rules from https://www.wimbledon.com)

Nine more wins added to his quest to overtake Jimmy Connors as the player with most ATP match wins

Roger won his 1200th victory at Madrid Masters and needed 75 more wins to overtake the Connors. While it is unclear how long Federer will continue to play, I believe he will do his best to take part in 2020 Tokyo Olympics to win the Olympic singles gold which has eluded him since 2000. If he plays a full season in 2020, there is no doubt that he will have a good chance of overtaking Connors. Therefore, the 9 wins at clay this year would become very important addition to his final tally.

Djokovic falls, but he will be back in Wimbledon

Dominic Thiem ended Novak Djokovic’s 26 match winning streak in Grand Slams, stopping him from completing the “Nole slam 2.0”. Djokovic was the favorite to win the title after capturing the Madrid Open and reaching the Italian Open final. However, he was outplayed by Thiem in a match that was interrupted multiple times due to rain.

Would this defeat hurt his chances at Wimbledon?

Not at all. In fact, defect will make him even more determined for success. He will enter the Wimbledon as the no 1 seed and the overwhelming favorite to retain the title.

Tsitsipas shines again, while Zverev and Khachanov finally show up

Tournament was a good advertisement for the Next Gen players as both Sascha Zverev and Karen Khachanov managed to reach quarter finals after struggling in early part of 2019. However, it was Stefanos Tsitsipas that impressed the most in this clay court season with a string of consistent performances which included his first clay court title at the Estoril Open and reaching the finals in Madrid after beating Nadal in semifinals. Even though, he lost a 5 set thriller to Wawrinka at the French Open he seems to be in good shape to make his first ATP finals appearance in November 2019.

That said, Next Gen players are yet to present a notable threat to the “Big Three” in slams, which is a worrying factor going forward.

Zverev, Khachanov and Tsitsipas did well at French Open 2019 (Source — https://www.telegraph.co.uk/tennis)

Did we witness the final “Fedal” on clay?

Thanks to an impressive performance by Federer and Nadal, Tennis fans were treated with the 39th edition of the great rivalry between these two legends. Even though, the match turned out to be a one sided affair in tough windy conditions, millions of fans tuned in to watch what possibly could be their 6th and final meeting in Parisian clay.

Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal met for the 39th time in their illustrious careers (Source — https://www.sportskeeda.com/tennis/)

Given Federer’s age, there is a possibility of him skipping the clay court season again in 2020 to preserve energy for Wimbledon and Olympics. Even if he plays, odds of them playing again are pretty low. Therefore, I feel we witnessed their final meet up in clay.

Do you agree with these points?

I would love to know your thoughts. Leave a comment!