NFL Week 16 Picks & Previews
By: Maxwell Argento
Tags: Sports Journalists, NFL, Writer, Football, Sports

NFL Week 16 Picks & Previews

By: Maxwell Argento

Aaron Donald (#99) and Co. will have to keep Russell Wilson (#3) in check to keep their hopes of winning the NFC West division intact.

Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks host the Los Angeles Rams at CenturyLink Field with thoughts of clinching the NFC West, while the Pittsburgh Steelers aim to get back on track against the AFC playoff hopeful Indianapolis Colts in the frigid confines of Heinz Field.

Picks are made straight up and against the spread. Odds provided by CBS Sports, as of Tuesday December 22, 2020.

Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans Saints (-7)

Despite losing two from their last two the New Orleans Saints still control their own destiny in the NFC South race, and with a win against the Vikings at home will clinch yet another division title. Saints DC Dennis Allen will feel fortunate that he doesn’t have to spend another week planning for Patrick Mahomes, and will be able to hold Dalvin Cook and the Vikings run game in check with his stout front-seven. Will Drew Brees be a healthier version of himself compared to the one we saw on Sunday afternoon? Regardless, I think the Saints match up well with the Vikings, and get the job done despite not covering the spread.

Pick: Saints 27–23 Vikings

ATS: Vikings (+7)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Detroit Lions (+9.5)

This week for Tom Brady and the Buccaneers is all about taking yet another step forward on offense, especially continuing to find an identity as part of a larger desire for complimentary football. If Bruce Arians expects to take his team deep into the playoffs this is a game that must be won and won convincingly. On paper the Buccaneers are a much better team, and I don’t think Detroit will mount enough of a pass rush to perturb Brady. Add on the fact that the Lions continue to deal with Covid-19 cases that have caused the team to prepare virtually, and I like the Bucs to handle the Lions in a no-nonsense affair, covering in the process.

Pick: Buccaneers 27–13 Lions

ATS: Buccaneers (-9.5)

San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals (-5)

DeAndre Hopkin’s 1,324 receiving yards currently leads the NFL, and has helped second-year star Kyler Murray take a big leap for Arizona.

Although 49ers fans haven’t had much to smile about this year, that tune may change (albeit briefly) at the prospect of welcoming NFL star and team captain George Kittle back into the fold this week. His inclusion would sure help out C.J. Beathard, who has officially been named the starting quarterback in the place of Nick Mullens. Although the reason for Mullens not starting is due to an elbow injury sustained in the Dallas game, Beathard should definitely give the 49ers more ball security on offense compared to Mullens, who threw an interception in all but two starts he made this year. On the other side of the field the Cardinals are still playing for playoff contention, and will feel happy about Kyler Murray looking much healthier in their last game against the Eagles. If he looks as fresh as he did last weekend I like the Cardinals to eek out a close contest in the desert.

Pick: Cardinals 28–24 Niners

ATS: 49ers (+5)

Miami Dolphins vs Las Vegas Raiders (+3)

Secretly one of the more relevant games of the slate in the context of the playoff implications that are at stake for both teams. The Dolphins, with a win, will eliminate their opponent from playoff contention for the second straight week. The task should hopefully be made easier by the lack of Derek Carr’s inclusion to the contest, the hamstring injury he suffered last Thursday night likely to keep him out of this one. I think Miami is able to take advantage of being able to play single coverage with their cornerbacks, and will capitalize on their size up front to befuddle Josh Jacobs in the Raiders run game. Tua has shown more glimpses of athleticism at this level than I would’ve expected, and will continue to be managed the right way by Coach of the Year candidate Brian Flores. I’ll take Miami to win the contest, but I have serious concern about laying a full three points, especially considering where the game is being played.

Pick: Dolphins 21–20 Raiders

ATS: Raiders (+3)

New York Giants vs Baltimore Ravens (-11)

The New York Giants may be well on their way to building a roster that behaves a lot like the current Baltimore Ravens roster under rookie head coach Joe Judge, but that doesn’t mean that’s what they have currently. The Ravens have basically been playing playoff games for weeks now, and this one is no different. Lamar Jackson and the much maligned offense in Baltimore have scored 34, 47 and 40 points in their last three games respectively, and they are quietly getting healthier and sounder on defense. The Ravens might not be quite at the level of the Chiefs and the Bills within the conference, but that doesn’t mean they won’t beat the Giants by a couple scores in this one, regardless of who starts at quarterback in blue.

Pick: Ravens 31–9 Giants

ATS: Ravens (-11)

Atlanta Falcons vs Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5)

A large part of successfully picking against the Chiefs is being able to identify when they may not be completely focused with their opponent or particulary motivated by the challenge presented that week. That dynamic is not the case this week. Prospects of claiming the #1 overall seed in the AFC, home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, and a first round bye should be more than enough to get Andy Reid’s men up for their contest with Raheem Morris and the Atlanta Falcons. The bad news for the Falcons is that Patrick Mahomes just so happens to be a football player for the Chiefs, and when he throws the football he gets to throw it to guys named Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill. There were members of the media on Monday morning claiming that the Saints did a really good job holding the Chiefs to 32 points on Sunday afternoon in New Orleans. Think about that.

Pick: Chiefs 42–27 Falcons

ATS: Chiefs (-10.5)

Carolina Panthers vs Washington (-2.5)

Members of the Football Team in Washington will be keenly aware of the fact that their head coach gets the chance to exact revenge on the team that had forsaken him this week when they invite the Panthers to town. Rivera will hope that his ace Alex Smith is ready to roll come Sunday, as the veteran gives the team the best chance to win because of his accuracy in the short/intermediate pass game and his ability to not turn the ball over. The Washington front four have success against anyone in the league, and that will be no different against the Panthers, who despite being generally well coached haven’t found a consistent way to put teams away with Teddy Bridgewater under center. Coaching experience, motivation, and a talent-edge on defense all go the way of Washington, so you know where my straight up pick leans. As for against the spread, I like the Panthers getting two points plus a half.

Pick: Washington 23–21 Panthers

ATS: Panthers (+2.5)

Cleveland Browns vs New York Jets (+9.5)

The New York Jets will surely lose this week in an attempt to compensate for their mistake of beating the Rams last weekend, which is good for the Browns. All jokes aside, I obviously like Cleveland in this spot despite understanding that they will be in some small way looking ahead a bit to their week 17 matchup with the Steelers, which will potentially be for all of the AFC North marbles. At the end of the day, Kevin Stefanski will tell his men that going undefeated in their last two games is their best chance of winning the division, and will get a representative effort. Baker Mayfield has looked a whole new player over the last handful of games, and should be able to lead his team to their 11th win of the campaign. Nine-and-a-half points is too many to feel comfortable laying for me considering the potential for an emotional letdown by the Browns, but straight up it’s an easy call.

Pick: Browns 27–20 Jets

ATS: Jets (+9.5)

Chicago Bears vs Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5)

This matchup features teams on opposite ends of the motivational spectrum, as is sometimes the case with games down the stretch of the season. Public conjecture will state that Jacksonville will avoid trying to win the game now that they have claimed the first pick in next year’s draft from the Jets. Now while I think that it is a much more complex issue than that (which may require a separate post), I don’t necessarily disagree with the point, especially considering the potential impact of who is assumed to be taken with that pick. Regardless of what you think about Jacksonville’s motivation edge, I like the Bears to go on the road and win a nail-biter to keep their playoff push alive. Mitch Trubisky has had a slight resurgence since resuming the roleof starter, and if you’ve ever read anything of mine you know what I think of the Bears defense. The number going past seven means I like the Jaguars to cover, but only because I refuse to think that they would actually pack it in in order to secure drafting the long-haired kid from Clemson. Bears straight up, Jags taking points.

Pick: Bears 24–21 Jaguars

ATS: Jaguars (+7.5)

Cincinnati Bengals vs Houston Texans (-8.5)

For those of you that didn’t catch it, the Bengals beat the Steelers Monday night in their own personal Super Bowl, and will unfortunately experience the emotional letdown that generally follows. Although it may sound square, I tend to just pick the team in these contests who boast the actual quarterback, which in this case is the Texans. Some questions to consider: Does news of Jim Caldwell interviewing for the Texans job distract players from what’s happening in the building already? How much stock should we take in the fact that four of the Texans’ last six games are against potential playoff teams? Can the Bengals be competitive and have their quarterback Ryan Findley only drop back 13 times again?

Pick: Texans 30–23 Bengals

ATS: Bengals (+8.5)

Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5)

Ben Roethlisberger delivered his worst performance of the season on Monday Night Football, only throwing for 170 yards on 20 of 38 attempts with a touchdown and an interception.

Even if the once-vaunted Pittsburgh Steelers were still undefeated I would be saying that the Indianapolis Colts are a poor matchup for them. The Colts have commodities on both sides of the line to create serious problems for the Steelers, and are stout enough of a defense to deal with the Steelers tame offensive schemes. If Frank Reich’s men can protect Philip Rivers enough and mitigate the pass rush of the somewhat depleted Steelers front seven then the Colts will win by a touchdown. In addition, the poor scheduling spot for the Steelers must be addressed. Mike Tomlin’s squad are coming off a short week because of their Monday night contest with the Bengals, have the Browns to look forward to next week to serve as a distraction, and are still dealing with the physical ramifications of not having a bye due to schedule re-shuffling earlier in the season. To make matters even worse, Ben Roethlisberger doesn’t seem to be all that healthy, and JuJu Smith-Schuster has a Tik-Tok problem. Not only do I like the Colts to cover, but I like them to win straight up, causing all sorts of drama come week 17.

Pick: Colts 20–16 Steelers

ATS: Colts (-1.5)

Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers (-3)

I can imagine how disappointing it must be for both fan bases to have to sit down and watch this game after having such buzz surrounding them before the year. I wonder if Chargers head coach Anthony Lynn is coaching for his job, and if he is I wonder if his players care. The Chargers will avenge their defeat at the hands of the Broncos in their first meeting, where Lynn’s team blew a 24–3 lead. If rookie Justin Herbert is trusted to throw the ball on Vic Fangio’s defense like Josh Allen was on Saturday night the Chargers should win by a touchdown. Another pro in the Charger column is the fact that they are coming off additional rest and preparation, having beat the Raiders last week on Thursday night. If I were picking one, Chargers laying three would be on my shortlist for potential best bets.

Pick: Chargers 38–28 Broncos

ATS: Chargers (-3)

Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys (+2.5)

The Jalen Hurts Show takes its bells and whistles to Dallas, to face a Cowboys team fresh off a handling of the San Francisco 49ers in Jerry World. While the general public will more than likely ride with the Eagles and their fresh-faced offense, I am going to side with experience, and place my faith in the combination of Andy Dalton and Mike McCarthy. Beyond having mutual understanding with the Eagles already, I like the Cowboys to take the two weeks of film on Jalen Hurts and put together a good game plan on defense to counter his strengths and bother Doug Pederson. Look for Cowboy tailback Tony Pollard, who had 69 yards and two touchdowns on 12 carries, to continue his hard running in a game that will require a balanced attack from the hosts.

Pick: Cowboys 23–21 Eagles

ATS: Cowboys (+2.5)

Los Angeles Rams vs Seattle Seahawks (-1.5)

The Rams during the Sean McVay have shown two things: an ability to bounce back from bad defeats with a passionate, well-prepared performance the next week, and an ability to consistently give Russell Wilson and the Seahawks fits. The two biggest reasons for this (at least on the defensive side of the ball) are Aaron Donald’s pressure directed straight to the front of Wilson and Jalen Ramsey’s ability to guard D.K. Metcalf without the help of an additional defender. Couple this with Sean McVay being able to crack the code on Pete Carroll defenses and the route to a victory for the Rams can clearly be seen. The biggest flaw in the Ram’s case this week is that they won’t have starting running back Cam Akers due to injury, his performances in recent weeks having been the difference in several games. Ultimately, the combination of the Seattle defense quietly having fortified itself in certain areas plus Jared Goff playing flawed football are converging upon one another, and because of it I like the Hawks to get it done narrowly at home.

Pick: Seahawks 27–24 Rams

ATS: Seahawks (-1.5)

Tennessee Titans vs Green Bay Packers (-3.5)

Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers have enjoyed a 24–6 regular season record during the Matt LaFleur era.

This is one of those tasty matchups at the end of the year where it’s clear that neither team will be able to stop the other’s best offensive asset. In this case, it means that both Derrick Henry and Aaron Rodgers are set to have really effective evenings. The Titans don’t generate enough pressure to hurry or bother Aaron Rodgers, and the Packers penchant for getting beaten up front is never a good match when #22 gets off the bus. A huge factor in this game that I think eventually provides the edge to the Packers is Matt LaFleur’s familiarity with former assistant and Titans offensive play-caller Arthur Smith. I expect LaFleur to be able to game plan well enough against him and Mike Vrabel to be victorious on Sunday Night Football. Give me the Packers at home in the tundra straight up but the Titans to cover the spread…anything that crosses over three points is just too much for me not to take.

Pick: Packers 34–31 Titans

ATS: Titans (+3.5)

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots (+7)

The analysis of this game starts and ends with the question “which (if either) team shows up”? It could be very easy to envision the Bills, after having won their first division title in 25 years, suffering a pretty gnarly hangover. It also wouldn’t be hard to envision the Patriots, after having been eliminated from playoff contention last week, mailing it in in their last two games after a grueling campaign. Of the two, I am more likely to predict a Bills letdown than a Patriots collapse, and because of it will choose the Patriots in an upset. Many of these Patriots players will be playing for new contracts, their jobs, etc. and will not go quietly into the night. The Bills, looking into the future at the prospect of bigger, more important games, stub their toe. Patriots getting seven on national television all day long please.

Pick: Patriots 17–16 Bills

ATS: Patriots (+7)