DraftKings Week 12 High Stakes Ownership Report
Tags: Sports Betting, Fantasy Sports, Fantasy Football, Sports Analytics, NFL

DraftKings Week 12 High Stakes Ownership Report Jaketribbey Follow Dec 2 · 4 min read

Looking at the sharpest plays to learn from week 12

In daily fantasy sports, ownership is a key consideration in tournament lineup building. Reviewing lineup construction and player ownership at the highest stakes reveals valuable information regarding trends that we can take advantage of in the future.

Typically, high stakes players focus on the optimal lineup, or, simply put, the team they believe projects for the most points. With this in mind, we can infer that the popular players in high-stakes contests likely had the strongest overall value when measuring cost against projected fantasy points.

This article series will analyze ownership numbers from a low stakes, large field DFS contest (the $10 Fantasy Millionaire) and compare them to the ownership in a high stakes contest (the $4,500 MEGA Millionaire). As many would expect, a contest with a $4,500 entry fee tends to have significantly sharper players, so it’s important to review high stakes ownership to see where the pros invested in a given week.

$4,500 MEGA Millionaire Ownership Leverage Leaders

With Colts RB Jonathan Taylor ruled out a few hours before kickoff, both Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins were set up nicely with a larger workload than normal, but only Hines saw significant ownership. Hines has shown that he was an efficient and reliable runner throughout the season, and even with Taylor in the lineup, Hines was rarely ever out-touched or out-snapped by Jordan Wilkins. With Taylor out of the lineup that left Hines as the logical lead back, but he struggled in a blowout loss to Tennessee.

Dalvin Cook was 40% owned or more in nearly every contest in Week 12 but had everything go against him on his way to a disappointing 11.2-point performance. Carolina’s two defensive TDs put the Vikings in a significant hole, forcing Kirk Cousins to throw the ball a season-high 45 times. Cook also suffered an ankle injury in the 3rd-quarter but managed to return. While 22 total touches are typically enough for a player like Cook to go off, it wasn’t nearly enough in Week 12.

Todd Gurley’s absence led to a starting opportunity for Atlanta RB Brian Hill, who saw 13 carries in a game Atlanta controlled throughout — an ideal situation for any starting rusher. Unfortunately for believers in Hill, Ito Smith saw 12 carries and the Falcons' lone rushing score, leading to a poor performance for Hill despite his solid projections and outstanding game script.

High volume, high average depth of target (ADoT) players like Tyreek Hill can break a slate in any given week. Simply put, if you didn’t have Hill in Week 12, you couldn’t win as the KC WR went off for 269 yards and 2 TDs. Players similar to Hill like D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Will Fuller, Chase Claypool, A.J. Brown, Mike Williams, Kenny Golladay, Darius Slayton, Stefon Diggs, etc. need to be at least considered in every slate they participate in because of the high volume of targets they see deep down the field. 80-yard TDs win DFS tournaments, and players like Hill can score them with ease.

$10 Fantasy Millionaire Ownership Leverage Leaders

Both Browns RBs: Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, saw minimal high stakes ownership as there was plenty of reason to be wary of a nearly identical 50/50 backfield split. Despite Hunt’s recent increase in goal-line touches, the Browns coaching staff gave Chubb all the work he could handle, out-carrying Hunt 19–10 and seeing 2 goal-line carries to Hunt’s 1. Both players have limited ceilings given each other's presence, but with the Browns running the ball at the highest rate in the league, this split is crucial to monitor for fantasy purposes.

Both star WRs from the Bills v Chargers matchup find their way onto the low stakes leverage list, despite the fact both Stefon Diggs and Keenan Allen had been peppered with targets all year. Since both WRs were priced nearly identical to Tyreek Hill, sharper players made the correct decision to prefer the Chiefs star WR.

Wayne Gallman saw significant ownership in a cushy matchup vs. the Cincinnati Bengals, as he was expected to see double-digit carries with the Giants as 6.5-point favorites. Gallman saw an impressive 24 carries and scored once but missed the 100-yard bonus, logging just 94 rushing yards. Even in favorable matchups, an inefficient rushing offense like the Giants continued to underproduce, leading to a sub-par fantasy outing for Gallman despite the massive workload.