fabiochiu/medium-articles huggingface dataset:
We Live in Uncertain Times
By: Mark Koenigsberg
Tags: Leadership, Leadership Development, Leadership Coaching, Leadership Skills

We Live in Uncertain Times

We live in uncertain times, perhaps the understatement of the day. The trifecta of the coronavirus, this country’s and the world’s political climate, along with the global economic response, has created an anxiety-inducing smoothie du jour.

Human beings hate uncertainty, literally our brains hate it. Uncertainty generates a hard-wired biological fear response. Neuroscientists have long studied and documented this phenomenon. Cortisol levels rise increasing stress, blood pressure elevates, glucose and other nutrients required for creative and clear cognitive thinking are diverted to “lower” brain functions designed to keep us safe. Such a response is useful for fending off saber toothed tigers or getting ourselves out of burning buildings. It’s poor for anything other than short bursts of energy.

One of the functions of leadership in such times is to create a measure of certainty. In the past we have looked to the government, specifically to our executive branch. In the U.S. today we have an incoherent executive branch spouting lies and ignorance. With our government in denial and disarray the work of creating a measure of certainty falls to others, including leaders in businesses and organizations small and large. Leaders who must show up and be present for others. Showing up means walking into the space of “not knowing.” Showing up as in talking straight and keeping commitments. People respond to and appreciate honesty and directness. Leadership is saying, I don’t know, rather than pretending to have answers for the unknown. Saying and being present for your people.

All of us have our demons, now is not the time to be ruled by them. If you own a business, run or manage a team or work group, have people who look to and depend upon you; be brave, have courage, reach out to others, find your inner strength, and stay optimistic. You will get through this; we will get through this.
“For Your Development…”
By: Kristen Schmitt
Tags: Professional Development, Leadership Skills, Leadership, Promotion, Leadership Coaching

I was recently catching up with a friend, and the topic shifted to work. “How have things been going?” I asked. “I’m getting frustrated. For over a year, they have been piling extra projects on me, telling me it is ‘for my development,’ and that I am getting ready for the next level. It feels to me like they are just giving me extra work because there is no one else to do it. There is no talk of what skills I need to develop, or any communication about when they think I will be ready for that next level.”

I suggested that he ask for a meeting with his boss to understand what skills he needed to build, get feedback on the work he had completed, and start a dialogue about his development strategy.

Providing special assignments, such as leading a cross-functional team or mentoring, is a fantastic talent development strategy. Ambitious employees gain an opportunity to grow and shine while meeting a business need of the organization. Often, the recipient gains increased exposure to leadership, an occasion to expand professionally, and a chance to demonstrate a willingness to go above and beyond.

However, if not managed appropriately, this practice can go south, mainly if it is frequent, and create frustration for the employee. For best results:

Set the foundation with a development conversation. Ask the employee to articulate his/her career goals. In return, provide honest feedback about the development that will best serve the employee to reach said goals. Establish additional assignments as a vehicle for growth and discuss how they benefit both the person and the company.

At the onset, clarify expectations and illustrate how the employee will benefit.

Support the employee through the duration of the project. Provide guidance and feedback. Doing so is especially important if the assignment is a stretch for the employee.

Be appreciative.

Call a spade a spade. If it’s not a development opportunity, but merely extra work that needs to be done, do not misrepresent.

Taking these steps also ensures that everyone is on the same page, and that open two-way communication ensues, creating a win-win situation.
Leaders Make the Culture
By: Zach Hughes
Tags: Culture, Leadership Skills, Leadership Development, Leadership Culture, Leadership

Photo by SwapnIl Dwivedi on Unsplash

What is your company’s culture? If you are honest with yourself, it’s probably a mixed bag. Some aspects are great. Those are probably the reasons that caused you to join the company in the first place and are the reasons why you stay. Some of the other cultural aspects aren’t so great. That’s normal.

The question is, what can you do about it?

Or even more importantly, what will you do about it? For most, the answer is nothing, but that is the wrong answer.

Most people talk about culture using very static, descriptive terms. People see themselves as either benefactors or victims of this static culture.

The truth is that culture isn’t rigid at all. Like soft clay, it is shapeable. Just because it hasn’t changed, doesn’t mean it can’t change. Just because it’s hard to change a culture doesn’t mean it isn’t possible.

Where does culture come from? That’s an easy one: Leaders.

Leaders are the ones that create, perpetuate, or change a culture. Which leaders? Well, that’s entirely up to you.

Most leaders see themselves as actors, working within the confines of the established culture. They make the best of things and navigate accordingly. They don’t see themselves as creators or cultivators of the culture. The main reason for this is the perceived lack of power. Perhaps their title isn’t fancy enough. Perhaps they only run a portion of the business unit or function, but not the entire org. These are excuses and nothing more. I’ll explain.

I’ve already stated that culture isn’t static. It also isn’t monolithic. As in, there isn’t really “one” culture in an organization. Companies that are large enough have lots of subcultures. These subcultures roughly align to the overall dominant culture, but they are individually more malleable than you think. That’s where you come in.

Do you feel like there are aspects of your company or department culture that should improve? Great. Start right at home in your circle of immediate influence. You don’t need permission. Leaders lead. It’s what they are supposed to do. Don’t worry. If you get off course, someone will be around to set you straight. But that shouldn’t stop you from leading and following your convictions.

Who am I writing this to?

Someone. Perhaps, not you. But someone reading this needs a gentle push in the right direction. This was it. Do what you need to do. Your team needs you to. Your culture will improve as a result. Go lead.

Read this article on my blog site or listen to it on my podcast🎙️
Excelling Conflict Resolution
By: Sivanandan Chettiyar
Tags: Collab, Leadership Skills, Conflict Resolution, Successful Entrepreneurs, Conflict Management

Conflict resolution, an art you must excel at.

Conflict presents an opportunity to reconsider, re-evaluate and learn. Organizations that train their employees to deal with conflict management are, in a way, creating a climate of listening, questioning, and creative thinking. Conflict resolution is primarily a trade-off between assertiveness and cooperation. A few suggestions for effective conflict resolution;



The meeting environment should be conducive enough for everyone to express their thoughts and opinions. Maintaining the emotional wellbeing of those involved is very crucial for the successful conclusion of a conflict. Do not try to be assertive in every conflict, and be well aware of the consequences of being assertive whenever you choose to. If the issue is trivial and may not have lasting consequences, it is advisable to accommodate the other party rather than push for your needs.



Be REBEL for a better outcome.



Raise above personal emotions and be focused on the goals.

Empathize with others — will help you to approach without prejudices. Sometimes, deep-rooted perceptions are the ones which prevent you from understanding others’ points of view.

Be focused — focus on specific issues rather than generalizing or escalating the situation.

Express your own needs clearly — evaluate your position well, its benefits along with supporting data points.

Listen effectively — the ability to listen and understand others’ perspectives is very essential to working through a conflict.



Five styles of conflict management, The Thomas-Kilmann Model

Avoiding — ignore it hoping it will resolve on its own.

Accommodating — meeting the expectations of others at the expense of your own.

Compromising — reaching a resolution which partly satisfies all parties involved.

Competing — satisfy your own needs at the expense of others.

Collaborating — find a solution that satisfies all the involved parties.



Each of the conflict resolution tactics listed above requires varying levels of assertiveness and cooperation; choose the one that best fits your needs.
No pain, No Gain: how 2020 took me from surgery hell to startup heaven (review)
By: Ogunbowale Olugbenga
Tags: Leadership Skills, Leadership Development, Entrepreneurship, Grant, Leadership

Health struggles

Fairytales only exist in Disney movies.

Just like you, I had my fair share of struggles. And in 2020, my biggest struggle was my health.

For anyone who has closely worked with me, you’ll know I am almost always blowing my nose. My right nostril has been partially blocked since 2008 (deviated nasal septum). Never mind that I did a surgery (turbinectomy) in 2011 (and honestly, I didn’t see any significant improvement).

Now, a partially blocked nostril might not seem like a big deal on paper, but I want you to imagine the worst catarrh you’ve ever had, multiply its irritation by 5, and you begin to understand what it means to have lived with a partially deviated nasal septum for 12 years straight.

The ear, nose and throat are connected. So, I basically had some form of infection in my ear, nose or throat at some point in 2020. The sore throat that I tried to get rid of (in 2019) came back and at a point, my ears were so swollen, they had to be packed for weeks to combat infection.

This meant that for more than half of 2020, my sleeping pattern was just plain terrible. I sometimes struggled with sleep at my desk at work.

My medical regimen looked like this:

Steam inhalation, pain killers, antibiotics, ear drops, nose drop, Strepsil, CT scan, Xray, GI Endoscopy. Repeat.

I decided I had had enough and opted for surgery to fix my nose.

The first surgery barely made any difference. I started complaining few days after the surgery that there was no improvement. Then I learnt the surgeons missed a key detail in my case note (they did not do their homework). Which meant I needed yet another surgery.

Every surgery comes with real risks. It’s not like surgery is a trip to the market to buy foodstuff so you can imagine how upset I was. But the hospital did a few key things differently this time around: the surgeons thoroughly read my case note (something they should have done the very first time), performed the surgery under the guidance of an endoscope (so they were able to see into the nose in real time) and brought in a very senior surgeon to lead the entire thing. The second surgery has worked out well so far.

I had 2 surgeries barely 1 month apart. Wow.

Ok…back to the story.

I sleep better now. It certainly has significantly improved the quality of my life. Seeing just how much I spent out of pocket to take care of my health, I finally signed up for health insurance. So, don’t be like me: sign up for health insurance before you need health insurance.

Also, both surgeries reminded me of just how important family is: my parents, sister, brothers and close friends came through with food and love and support.
Loving this season.
By: Brandon Anderson
Tags: Survivor, Culture, Reality TV, Television, TV

Loving this season. And while I expected the legends to be gone first, I’m pleasantly shocked to see irrelevant names like Danni and Amber gone instead. Danni is one of my least favorite least deserving winners ever, and last night showed the huge gap between her and most everyone else in this game. She played herself.

I thought it was a pretty bad night for Ben, Denise, and Adam too. No one trusts Ben. He’s basically chaos Kass, which is somewhat entertaining to watch but he’s screwing himself. Denise strategy was really rough. And so was Adam the way he pushed back on her so hard about Parvati but then didn’t bother to slam the door shut and get her out given the chance, and how he stupidly confronted Rob and looked guilty with the bag emptying. I have no doubt Rob saw what I saw, whether or not he saw the actual idol.

By contrast, Jeremy had a much stronger episode. He knew he was on the outs after Natalie, he quietly blended in with both sides, and he avoided being any target at all when he should easily have been the non-threat middle-ground target over Danni.

Other than Jeremy, the gulf in strategy between Rob and Parvati and the rest of their tribe seems enormous. I think your fandom of Ethan is giving him too much credit too. He’s hanging way too close to his buddies and being too forthright with information.

Very worried about Kim. Can’t do much if you can’t find an in. She needs a tribe sweep soon, though I really hope we aren’t getting one yet.
Mi, Redmi TVs See Price Hike in India Starting Today Due to Supply Chain Shortages
By: Sagar Pandit
Tags: Smart Tv, Mi, Smart Tv Top Box, TV, Mi Tv

Mi, Redmi TVs See Price Hike in India Starting Today Due to Supply Chain Shortages Sagar Pandit Jul 6·3 min read

However, Xiaomi has not yet provided which of its smart TV models would exactly receive the increased pricing.

HIGHLIGHTS

Xiaomi is increasing its Mi TV and Redmi TV prices by 3–6 percent

Global supply chain shortages are claimed to be the reason for the change

Some Mi TV and Redmi TV models are already available with hiked prices

Mi and Redmi TV models in India are receiving an increase in their prices starting today (July 1), Xiaomi has announced. Redmi TVs See Price, Citing global supply chain shortages, the Chinese company stated that the price hike would be between 3–6 percent.

The latest move does not bring any changes to the pricing of Xiaomi smartphones.

However, the company recently hiked some of its popular smartphone prices in the country.

Xiaomi rivals including Realme and Vivo also increased the pricing of some of their smartphones in the recent past.

Redmi TVs See Price

A Xiaomi spokesperson told Gadgets 360 that the company witnessed shortages across the supply chain in the last one year that resulted in a “constant upward movement” in the pricing of the components used in smartphones, smart TV, and other electronics (including chipsets, display panels, display driver, back panels, and battery). Redmi TVs See Price

“This, coupled with an unprecedented increase in shipping charges has had an effect on almost all the technology players including us,” the spokesperson said in a prepared statement .

“While we have tried to absorb the increasing costs, some of our products have witnessed a price hike.

We also foresee an inevitable increase of 3–6 percent in prices of our smart TVs from July 1 onwards.”

The Best TVs You Can Buy

It is currently unclear which Mi and Redmi TV models are receiving an increased pricing.

The company has also not provided any details on the exact amount of price hike the customers would get due to the change.

Having said that, 91Mobiles reports that there are at least 10 models in the Mi TV and Redmi TV series that have already received increased prices in the country.

The price hike is between Rs. 500–2,000, depending on the model.

Redmi TVs See Price

The Mi TV 4A Horizon Edition 32-inch has received the Rs. 500 price hike, while the pricing of the Mi TV 4A Horizon Edition 43-inch , Mi TV 4A Horizon , Edition 40-inch, Mi TV 4X 43-inch and the Redmi TV 65-inch has been increased by Rs. 1,000.

In contrast, th Mi TV 4A Horizon Edition 43-inch, Mi TV 4X 55-inche, Redmi TV 50-inch, Redmi TV 55-inch , and the Mi TV QLED 55-inch have received a hike of Rs. 2,000.

The change in the prices is currently reflecting on the Mi.com site.

https://techyadviser.com/mi-redmi-tvs-see-price-hike-in-india-starting-today-due-to-supply-chain-shortages/
Why is my Child so Thin? · Dr Dad
Tags: Parenting, Children, Kids, Baby, Pregnancy

If you are one such parent who constantly overthinks about their child’s weight, then you must be feeling very stressed if your child appears to be thin. Your child could be skinny just because you were skinny yourself as a young child. Often, low weight in kids shouldn’t be a very serious cause of concern and you may cut them some slack. This may not satisfy your worries and for this reason, we’re here with some answers that you might need to know.

If your child was born a premature baby, then the chances of him or her growing up to be a skinny child increases by several folds.

The most common reason for your child being visibly skinny is the inadequate intake of nutritious and well-balanced food.

You may not pin this to your child’s picky eating habits because there can be several internal reasons that are preventing proper absorption of nutrients in his body resulting in him losing all his body weight.

Sometimes, if your child suffers from ADHD, he may not have a good appetite for food. Health conditions such as food allergies from certain kinds of foods may also trigger a suppressed appetite in your child.

If your child suffers from an upset stomach very often, then it might signify that your kid has a gastrointestinal tract infection. This might stop your child from eating any food items and gaining the right weight.

If your child takes active participation in sports or energy exertion activities, then it is only normal that he won’t gain any extra weight than normal for his/her age. Still, if you observe that your child is constantly losing weight and is appearing to be fatigued or unhealthy, then you must take him to a pediatrician immediately.

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Note: The information contained in these topics is not intended nor implied to be a substitute for professional medical advice, it is provided for educational purposes only. You assume full responsibility for how you choose to use this information. Always seek the advice of your physician or another qualified healthcare provider before starting any new treatment or discontinuing an existing treatment. Talk with your healthcare provider about any questions you may have regarding a medical condition. Nothing contained in these topics is intended to be used for medical diagnosis or treatment.
My Child Is An Early Bird – Can I Do Something About It?
Tags: Baby Boomers, New Mom, Baby Sleep Tips, Baby, Sleepless Mom

My Child Is An Early Bird – Can I Do Something About It?

Early morning wakings are one of the toughest sleep problems to fix, if not the toughest. If you’re wondering why, it’s because after a decent night’s rest your child has got more energy to fight sleep in the morning. And the truth is, all of us come up into lighter sleep phases in the last hour of our sleep, preparing to take up for the day.

Remember, however, your child is waking early only if he is not getting the right amount of night rest for his age and his body. In other words, if your child sleeps from 7 PM to 6 AM, it’s a perfectly reasonable schedule for him, even though it might feel early to you.

https://youtu.be/2oAD8xySI9c

We can’t ask our children to sleep more than 11 hours at night. Their bodies are usually rested after this much sleep, and they won’t be able to do more.

Also keep in mind the following fact: if your child is waking even at 10/½ hours, if he is rested and energetic in the morning and makes it easily till his naptime, then he’s getting enough rest for his body.

Problems arise if your child sleeps from, say, 7 PM to 5:30 AM. In this case, you’ll need to push the bedtime later by 15-minute increments, then watching to see if your child can sleep later in the morning,

A word of caution, though: Making the bedtime later can often have the opposite effect of causing your child to wake up earlier. This is the reason why things need to be done in small steps.

Here are some other ideas to try if your child is an early bird:

Make sure that your child’s room is very, very dark.

If there are any sounds that could be waking him – such as garbage trucks, barking dogs, sprinklers – put white noise in the room and make the volume loud enough to protect him from these sounds

Remove all stimulating toys from your child’s crib or bed, which can be distracting once the sun enters his room.

If you are checking in on your child within the last hour before his wake time, your interaction may prevent him from returning to sleep. Don’t check on him if it’s less than one hour till his wake time.

Make sure the bedtime is not too late for your child’s age. Adjust the bedtime earlier by 15-minute increments, and watch what happens in the morning. In doing so, you will allow your child to sleep later, as he is less overtired at bedtime. If he does wake earlier, return to your previous bedtime. If moving the bedtime earlier has no effect on the wake time, you may want to consider using the earlier bedtime anyway to help your child get the right amount of night sleep for his age.

Make sure your child is not hungry. If you have a child under 12 months and have newly begun to wean feedings, you may want to slow the process down to give him more time to adjust. Moreover, be careful to ensure that you are offering the breast or bottle more often during the day to help him transition his previous nighttime feeds to the daytime, so he won’t be hungry going down for sleep at night.
How To Celebrate Independence Day For Kids
By: William Anderson
Tags: Gift Ideas, Parenting, Parents, Parenting Advice, Baby

Photo Credit: m_a_y_a via Getty Images

Independence Day is a time of celebration for both kids and adults. It’s important to figure out what activities are engaging, fun, and interesting for the entire family. All you need to do is to make the right pick and you will be very happy with the process and results. With that being said, it’s always a challenge to try and celebrate this day appropriately. This is why we created a list with some of the most important activities to check out during this great holiday, especially if you have kids.

Flag hoisting

Photo Credit: Yulkapopkova via Getty Images

This is a cool Independence Day activity because it imbues a sense of pride and happiness into your child’s mind. It shows that yes, this is a time for celebration, happiness, and excitement. It always has its fair share of challenges, but in the end, it’s always something cool and one of those things that you need to celebrate and enjoy all the time.

Dress up competition

Photo Credit: Budingstar via Pinterest

Kids love to dress up, and the Independence Day festivities are a great time to do something like that. It’s a great way for kids to control their own emotional response, plus it imbues their creativity and it pushes those ideas to the next level. It’s a cool concept and one that you will cherish more than you might imagine.

See full blog here.
Pregnant And Black In A White Healthcare System
By: Rebecca Stevens A.
Tags: BlackLivesMatter, Black Women, Racism, Baby, Pregnancy

If you have basic insurance coverage in Switzerland, a midwife will assist you in the birthing process. A doctor will only be called in if you have complications in labor. A couple of years earlier, I had subscribed to semi-private health insurance because I wanted to have a medical professional in the labor room at all times, birthing complications or not. It made me feel more secure, especially since my younger cousin had died in childbirth in my native Sierra Leone a few months earlier.

During antenatal classes, the midwives asked what was so special about me that I needed to have a doctor in the room while I gave birth.

“Do you think that you are better than other women?” was the message that came across loud and clear.

One of the reasons I chose a doctor is because I didn’t trust the midwives. They already had a bias in that they thought women should suffer to bring life into the world. My view was that if humankind had found ways to make the birthing process less painful, who was I to want to go the natural and painful route. Secondarily, given the false premise in the medical profession that Black women can take more pain, I was afraid that they wouldn’t give me the epidural when I asked for it because they assumed that I was exaggerating.
Forecasting Wars: Classical Forecasting Methods vs Machine Learning
By: Dimitris Effrosynidis
Tags: Time Series Forecasting, Programming, Python, Data Science, Machine Learning

We will use data from the kaggle competition M5 Forecasting — Accuracy.

The task is to forecast, as precisely as possible, the unit sales (demand) of various products sold in the USA by Walmart.

More precisely, we have to forecast daily sales for the next 28 days. The data covers stores in three US states (California, Texas, and Wisconsin) and includes item level, department, product categories, and store details.

The data is enormous, and for this demonstration, I will use a subset of them, a product from the dataset with a lot of sales.

Our goal is to compare classical time series analysis techniques with machine learning algorithms.

All the code is available on GitHub.

Who will predict better the future?

Competitors:

Simple Exponential Smoothing Double Exponential Smoothing Triple Exponential Smoothing ARIMA SARIMA SARIMAX Light Gradient Boosting Random Forest Linear Regression

Make your bet!

Load packages to work with.

Read data.

First 5 rows of the dataset.

The target variable to predict is the demand (how many items of this product will be sold on that date).

Dates are from 2011–01–29 to 2016–05–22, totaling 1941 days. The last 28 days are the competition_test set, as instructed by the competition, so we don’t know the demand (it is equal to 0).

In order to train and validate the models, I will split the data into two parts: train and test. The test set shall not be confused with the competition_test set.

The test set will have the same length as the test competition_test to simulate the same conditions. So it will consist of the dates between 2016–03–27 and 2016–04–24 (28 days). The train set will be all the other previous values.

Train-Test split from initial data.

Time series (train-test) line plot.

We have a lot of training data and the last 28 days are the test set. Our goal is to predict them using the previous values.

Next, I will create a predictions dataframe to store the predictions of all models. Each model will be a column in this dataframe. Also, a stats dataframe to store the performance and execution time of each model.

Train and Evaluate Models

We will begin with the simple traditional forecasting models. Don’t underestimate them.

Simple Exponential Smoothing

This is a variation of the Simple Moving Average called Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) or Simple Holt-Winters method. The package that is used to load it to Python is called SimpleExpSmoothing. We have to define a parameter called span, which will be equal to the seasonal periods of the dataset.

Autocorrelation.

Each value compared with up to 60 previous lags.

From the autocorrelation plot, we can clearly see that every 7 lags there is a peak in correlation. This means that the value of the present day and the value of 7 days earlier have a high correlation. I will set span equal to 7. After training, using .forecast(x), with x=28 days, the model predicts the next 28 days. The evaluation will be made with Root Mean Square Error.
Interpreting Results of Dicky Fuller Test for Time Series Analysis.
By: Raoof Naushad
Tags: Time Series Forecasting, Time Series Analysis, Time Series Model, Machine Learning, Arima

This short story explain about, how we can interpret the results of dicky fuller test to understand about the stationarity of a time-series data.

Google Named for American statisticians David Dickey and Wayne Fuller, who developed the test in 1979, the Dickey-Fuller test is used to determine whether a unit root (a feature that can cause issues in statistical inference) is present in an autoregressive model.

Consider a time series data, which only changes according to the time. So inorder to forecast a time series data, there are different models which are popular for time series analys.

Auto Regressive Moving Average ARIMA

In which ARIMA model is the combination of Auto Regressive, Integration and Moving Average.

Here is an example of a time series data which I used to use ARIMA model to forecast.

Time Series Data

Now I have to verify the stationarity inorder to forecast the data.

I wrote a function to find the stationary which uses both

Rolling mean and standard deviation graphs Also, Dicky Fuller Test

Now lets see the results of the verification of dicky fuller test.

Result of Dicky Fuller Test

From the plots of rolling mean and standard deviation itself you can understand that the standard deviation and mean variation is pretty high.

And also some interpretations from dicky fuller test results can be observed as

Null hypothesis in ADF test is that Data is not stationary

It’s better to have the p-value to be smaller than 0.05 inorder to reject the null hypothesis and consider data as stationary.

Wikipedia In statistical hypothesis testing, the p-value or probability value is the probability of obtaining test results at least as extreme as the results actually observed during the test, assuming that the null hypothesis is correct.

if Test Statistic < Critical Values => Rejects the null hypothesis. if Test Statistic >Critical Values => failed to reject the null hypothesis.

In our example we can understand that my test statistics value = -2.105294 is greated than critical value(5%) = -2.876479, Thus the data is not stationary.

Now we have to tranform the data to make the data more stationary.

one example results after transformation is hown below.

Here you can evaluate the test statistic which is smaller than the critical value(5%) and also the p-value is very much less than the significant value 0.05%. Thus rejecting the null hypothesis and considering the data as stationary.

The whole code of time series forecasting using ARIMA model is available in the GITHUB.
Time Series Analysis For Beginners
By: Perez Ogayo
Tags: Time Series Forecasting, Statistics, Data Science, Time Series Analysis, Machine Learning

If you are venturing into the world of data analysis and machine learning, you might have released just how important Time Series Analysis is. Regardless, I will try to provide a gentle introduction.

By the end of this article, you should be able to:

Define what a time series is Identify time series data from non time series data Identify and describe components of time series. Mention some of the models used for Time Series forecasting

Definition

Time series is a sequence of data points recorded in time order, often taken at successive equally paced points in time.

Time series data can be taken yearly, monthly, weekly, hourly or even by the minute.

Time Series Analysis comprised methods for analyzing time series data in order to extract meaningful statistics and other characteristics of the data. It is different from Time Series forecasting which is the use of a model to predict future values based on previously observed values. While time series analysis is mostly statistics, with time series forecasting enters Machine Learning. Time series analysis is a preparatory step to time series forecasting.

Examples of time series data

Stock prices, Sales demand, website traffic, daily temperatures, quarterly sales

Time series is different from regression analysis because of its time-dependent nature.

Auto-correlation: Regression analysis requires that there is little or no autocorrelation in the data. It occurs when the observations are not independent of each other. For example, in stock prices, the current price is not independent of the previous price. Seasonality, a characteristic which we will discuss below.

Time series analysis and forecasting are based on the assumption that past patterns in the variable to be forecast will continue unchanged into the future.

Why is Time series analysis important?

Because time series forecasting is important! Business forecasting, understanding past behaviour and planning for the future especially for policymakers heavily rely on time series analysis.

Time series data Vs Non-Time series data

If time is what uniquely identifies one observation from another, then it is highly likely that it is a time series dataset. Not every data collected with respect to time represents a time series. The observations have to be dependent on time.
Time Series Forecasting Models
By: Michael Pallante
Tags: Time Series Forecasting, Data Engineering, Data Science, Time Series Analysis, Data Analytics

What is time series forecasting?

Time series forecasting is a technique for predicting future aspects of data, in which we translate past data into estimates of future data. This technique is commonly used in business, as companies need to account for the uncertainty of the future, and being able to forecast data over time offers them a way to prepare for this.

Through the analysis of historical data, we can observe patterns of the data over time and generate forecasts of future data points. These forecasts can be crucial for companies, as they impact both short-term and long-term decision-making and strategic outlook.

In time series forecasting, the measurement of time is used as the independent variable in our model. These measurements of time will appear in successive periods and in many different intervals, including hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly intervals. Our model will be trying to produce demand, in which if we can observe a consistent pattern in demand, we can get adequate predictions from our time series models.
Why Time Series has to be STATIONARY ???
By: Mehul Gupta
Tags: Time Series Forecasting, Stationary, Timeseries, Time Series Analysis, Stationary Time Series

This question choked me up for a long time when I had my first introduction to Time Series. I searched it all over, even took help from fellow kagglers but in vain. Recently, I got a great explanation.

Dependent & Independent data

First of all let’s clear this. Independent data can be any collection of samples independent of each other. Like Titanic, Household regression & so on.

Dependent data, as you would have guessed, samples dependent on each other. Like in Time Series. Here each sample is dependent on other samples present in the data

We must understand a thing, Independence cannot give us an idea of any sort of magnitude or pattern to follow up for prediction

Example-If two numbers are equal, we know their magnitudes are equal but if they are unequal, we don’t have any relation between their magnitudes. Like one can be double of other,1/2th of the other or even imaginary number. But the catch is WE DON’T KNOW the reason behind the inequality!

but for dependency, we can have some idea if we know at least one value. But we have got a problem, dependency can still take many forms. For Example-

Y=a+bX

Y=a+bX²

Y=a+bX³

here Y is dependent on X but each time the dependency takes a different form. But if we say Y is independent of X it can take any form.

Stationarity is just that form/model out of all the dependency models we use to find the relation between the samples in a time series & hence we try to bring our time series in stationary form.

Stationarity & Non-Stationary data

Like in the case of dependence & independence, the same goes for stationarity & non-stationarity. Like for stationarity we know we need constant mean, std & autocorrelation but for non-stationarity, we don’t know anything!! Non-stationarity, as discussed for independent data, can take any form. No fixed norms are present which can model non-stationary data like there exists ARIMA, AR, MA or any other model for stationary data.

The mean can be double, triple of the previous observations can be 0. The same goes for std & autocorrelation, hence it cannot be modeled & that’s why we convert non-stationary data to stationary first so as we know something about the features of this time series & hence can & apply our different models that I will be explaining in my next article!!!
The Time Series Playground
Tags: Time Series Forecasting, Programming, Data Science, Technology, Machine Learning

The Time Series Playground

A new web-based tool to get insights from time series forecasting Daitan Follow Jun 8 · 2 min read

Time Series forecasting comprises a set of algorithms that are designed to predict future behavior based on historical data. Here at Daitan, time series forecasting has been one of the most important applications of machine learning and today, we are pleased to announce the first (to our knowledge) time series forecasting playground. Inspired by the Neural Network Playground and the GAN Lab, the The Time Series Playground is an interactive open-source tool designed to provide intuition on how to train AutoRegressive Feed Forward Neural Networks for time series forecasting.

In the tool, one can define, configure, and train Neural Networks using four different time-series “toy” datasets. For each dataset, users can experiment with different kinds of input formats, and play with up to 5 different training hyperparameters, including the learning rate, the choice of activation function, the batch size and many more.

Also, one can start, pause, or resume training at any given moment; or even choose to train a model for a single epoch at a time. When a given training process is finished or paused, the tool automatically displays one-step-ahead forecasting for the test set in the main graph, along with the 95% confidence intervals. Besides the hyperparameters, users can define their own choices of train and test splits, or even customize the input data format to be used for training.

The time series playground is designed to be an educational tool. We hope that the tool can provide valuable insights and spark curiosity so that more people feel interested in dive deep in this interesting subarea of machine learning.

If you want to learn more about time series forecasting, we highly recommend our series of articles on the topic.

Thanks for reading.

The Innovation team at Daitan.
ARIMA for dummies
By: Haneul Kim
Tags: Arima, Time Series Forecasting, Python

Model building in python

We will be using python 3.8 to build ARIMA model and predict Nvidia’s closing stock prices.

Nvidia stocks closing price from 2010–01–01 to 2020–10–10.

nvda_df

First thing we must do, check if data is stationary. From the line graph we’ve seen earlier of Nvidia’s closing stock prices it is quite clear that it is not stationary however to make sure it is always a good practice to test it.

We will test it using Augmented Dickey Fuller Test. To test if data is stationary, we use hypothesis testing where our null hypothesis would be “time series data is non-stationary”. We will reject null hypothesis when p-value is less than 0.05(p-value) which makes us take alternative hypothesis “time series data is stationary”.

Notice that our null hypothesis is rejected because p-value ≥ 0.05. So now we know our data is not stationary however it doesn’t end here because we can make it stationary by using technique called “differencing”.

Just by using 1st order differencing we can see that our data became stationary.

1st, 2nd order differencing applied plot

Below is auto-correlation plot of 1st order differencing. You can see that even with one lag it lead to negative auto-correlation right away which indicates over-differencing. When auto-correlation decrease too fast it may indicate over-difference and if auto-correlation decrease too slow(stays positive for more than 10 lags) it indicates under-differencing.

autocorrelation plot

Also when time series is slightly under differenced, differencing once more lead to slight over differencing and vice versa. In such case instead of differencing add AR terms when slightly under-differenced and add MA terms when slightly over-differenced.
Generating Synthetic Time-Series Data with Random Walks
By: Zachary Warnes
Tags: Time Series Forecasting, Stochastic Process, Synthetic Data, Data Science, Machine Learning

Modifying Random Walks

These random walks are adjusted to show the desired behavior. For example, adding restrictions on the minimum and maximum values for the random walk simulates capacity utilization.

The behavior of the random walk is further changed by altering other initial conditions, for example, imposing an overall positive trend. The positive trend is accomplished by adjusting the probability threshold. By increasing the probability of a positive step, a positive trend is imposed on the random walk. For this code, it is accomplished by lower the threshold to make a positive step.

Setting up a random walk in this manner can more closely resemble a stock trend. If the overall trend is positive or negative, details can be incorporated into the synthetic data.

Random Walks with a Positive Trend and Value Restrictions (Photo by Author)

There are several options to adjust the random walks further. For example, including Gaussian noise at each step or increasing the step size to a larger value causes the different walks to span larger spaces. However, there are a few other adjustments that result in much different behavior.

Adding volatility over time is achieved by increasing the step size by a small amount after each step. Thus, the steps slowly become larger over time.

Smoothing the walk is also achieved by modifying the step size but by alternatively increasing the size after positive steps and decreasing the size after negative steps by a small value.

Random Walks with increasing Volatility and Smooth Steps (Photo by Author)

Conclusion

Random walks are an interesting random process. With few starting conditions, many different patterns are generated. Because of this, random walks can be used as synthetic time-series data and tuned to your specific problem instance.

This post showcases some of the possible tuning options for random walks.
Top 4 Architecture Forums
By: Sharon Winifred
Tags: Architecture, Architecture Design, Interior Design, Public Forums

Architecture is one of the few careers out there that lets you use the full potential of your creativity. Nothing can be more rewarding than seeing your sketches come to life and people living in and using your designs in their lives. At times we all need a helping hand and what better place to turn to other than internet forums. Check out these 4 forums when you seek expert’s advice

1. Houzz

Houzz is one of the largest architectural databases. Apart from home designs and interior design ideas, it hosts a large forum with millions of active users who are ready to answer your architectural questions.

2. Plan N Design

Plan N Design has an online creative community with more than 100,000 active users. You can post your work and get the recognition your talent deserves. You can also get advice from experts

3. Archinect

Archinect is a must visit forum for Architecture students. You can even post your portfolio and get advice from professionals

4. Interior Design Community

The Interior Design Community lets you connect with the Interior Design Industry. This online space helps you discover useful tips and receive guidance from peers.

The next time you need to have a question answered or require the guidance of an expert don’t hesitate to post your queries on these forums!
This retail flagship is driven by the architecture and culture of Sindh
By: Savitha Hira
Tags: Shopping, Retail, Architecture, Lifestyle, Interior Design

Photography: Suryan & Dang

Designers at Bora Da’ Designs perpetuate a shift in modern, conventional retail design as the Torani garments store in Delhi follows the architectural language of Sindh…

Led by a unique client brief that did not seek the luxe and gloss of modern store design; instead, aspired for Sindhi Architecture in resonance with their products, designers Udaai Batra and Navneet Kaur weave old-world minimalism into a chic ambience that spells homely warmth for its customers.

Torani is one of the first stores located near the entrance of the posh Khan Market in Central Delhi. Surprisingly unhampered by neighbouring storefronts, a footpath leads one to the main entrance of the store, while a secondary entrance at the far end of its rectilinear layout draws customers from the internal walkway.

Starting out with a thematic that spells the strong doctrine of Sufism and borrowing from Persian architecture — both considerably rampant influences seen in Sindhi architecture of yore — the design language draws from 16th century medieval times in the province of Sindh, Pakistan to celebrate raw minimalism.

The whole store resonates the idea of simple clean design with earthy colours and raw materiality, the drama called upon by the clothes. With the walls playing an expansive canvas for the earthy and grainy textured grey paint that covers every inch — up and down over the beams and ceiling to bind the store in a monochrome envelope, the rugged feel, bare metal display stands, clothes pegs monogrammed with the Torani logo, looking mirrors set inside arch-shaped frames, hints of brushed brass accessories typical of Sindhi culture…

The flooring, however, ceases to match and flow with the walls, its grey micro topping enhancing the aura of antiquity and minimalism — further augmented by the 14ft. high ceiling that adds verticality to the 400 sq. ft. space, making it appear roomy and open.

The showstopper comes guised as a centrally placed bare tree trunk from which are hung brass bells of various styles. Each bell is suspended using saffron threads (compelling cultural element) that also spiral around the tree to remind one of the rituals that are deeply rooted in the Indian culture. This central attraction is the first thing one sees when one approaches the face of the store.

The design combats the inherent challenges of an engaging display in a narrow spatial distribution; approx. six-inch thick shared walls with neighbouring stores that could not be perforated; and the ultimate challenge, which was to execute the project within a fortnight, given the economics involved.

Design Firm: Bora Da’ Designs

Principal Designers: Udaai Batra & Navneet Kaur

Design Team: Udaai Batra, Navneet Kaur, Mohommad Faisal, Ritu Kumar

Built-up Area: 400 sq. ft.

Carpet Area: 400 sq. ft.

Location: Khan Market, New Delhi