The Frontdoor Cover: Week 16
By: Unculture Staff
Tags: NFL, Football, Sports Betting, Sports, Gambling

Derrick Henry and Aaron Rodgers square off in Week 16’s primetime matchup.

By: August Bottorf and Hershy Kulkarni

Hershy and I both predicted the Jets to cover against LA last week, but neither expected the Jets to pull out a victory! Last week was a better one than Week 14 for Hershy and I, hitting on games like Bears/Vikings and Chargers/Raiders. It wasn’t perfect, but it’s a good sign for the upcoming week and a solid rebound from the abysmal week that came before.

Atlanta Falcons at Kansas City Chiefs (1:00PM)

Spread: Chiefs -10.5

O/U: 54.5

AB: The Falcons are right up there with the Chargers as one of the best bad teams in football — they have the talent and coaching to keep up with and lose in the clutch to just about everyone, as evidenced by their hilarious choke against the Bucs last week. The Chiefs are still the best team in football and are still annihilating every team they come across, but they haven’t covered the spread in a while. Maybe if the point spread were a bit closer I would say put money on the Chiefs, but based on Kansas City’s recent games and their struggles in the red zone I think Atlanta keeps it within a score. Falcons +10.5.

HK: The Falcons may have lost each of the last three games, but for a 4–10 team, they’ve kept games remarkably close against three high flying teams — the Buccaneers, Chargers, and Saints. This matchup against the Chiefs falls right in line, and similar results should be expected. The Chiefs, time and time again, have let teams backdoor cover. The Falcons bring back Pro Bowl snub Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage looks strong in replacement of Julio Jones. With two below-average pass defenses, this will likely be a shootout. Matt Ryan may be the most “sackable” quarterback in the league, but this Chiefs defense has done an awful job of getting to the quarterback this year. Take the points confidently. Falcons +10.5.

Chicago Bears at Jacksonville Jaguars (1:00PM)

Spread: Bears -7.5

O/U: 47

AB: Is the Bears offense… good? I’m worried that I’m jinxing it by speaking it out loud but Chicago’s offense has rolled out 30 point efforts in 3 straight games now, and the Jags defense does not inspire much confidence. Furthermore, Jacksonville will be playing without their best offensive weapon James Robinson, leaving Mike Glennon to try and fend off the likes of Khalil Mack and Roquan Smith alone. I’ve been burned by betting against Glennon before, but this hapless Jags team should be gored by a Chicago squad now in control of its own destiny. Bears -7.5. (LOCK)

HK: The Bears have scored 30+ points in the last three games. The last time that happened was in 2013, under Marc Trestman. Many point to the poor defenses they have played during this stretch (Lions, Texans, Vikings), but nonetheless, beating down on bad defenses is a novel development for the otherwise hapless tradition of anemic Bears offenses. Thankfully for Chicago, Jacksonville might have the worst defense of them all — 30th in opponent rushing and 27th in opponent passing. Clearly in tank mode and a beneficiary of the New York Jets’ embarrassing win last week, Jacksonville has no reason to keep this game competitive. Meanwhile, Chicago looks to keep their playoff hopes alive and maintain this stretch of competent offensive football. Bears -7.5.

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (1:00PM)

Spread: Texans -7

O/U: 46.5

AB: I’m tempted to just write “who cares,” for this game, because seriously, who cares about this matchup at all. But for those keeping score, Deshaun Watson is competing without his primary offensive weapon Will Fuller and the Bengals just pulled off a massive upset against the Steelers. I don’t think Cincinnati wins, necessarily, but based on the recent performances from these two teams I think the Bengals are keeping it close. God, what a stinker of a game. Bengals -7.

HK: The Bengals are coming off a huge upset victory against the Steelers, forcing multiple turnovers and throttling a once-undefeated Pittsburgh team. Despite starting Ryan Finley, who threw for less than 100 yards, the Bengals played with strong defensive physicality and a competent run game. While it poses serious questions about the Steelers (below), the Bengals’ shocking victory seems more fluke than competence. Finley looked barely pro-caliber again, and they benefited from multiple Steelers’ turnovers. I don’t expect this to carry over to their matchup with Houston. Houston sports enough talent to have kept games very competitive against a high-quality Colts team. The Bengals should revert to their usual, awful mean. Texans -7.

Cleveland Browns at New York Jets (1:00PM)

Spread: Browns -9.5

O/U: 47.5

AB: Fun fact — I’m writing this a few days after Hershy is, which means his column is blissfully unaware of the fact that numerous Browns players have been removed from the game due to being COVID close contacts. Time magic is on my side! Anyway, I think the subtraction of Cleveland’s entire receiving corps and the fact that the Browns’ defense is quietly pretty bad will allow Darnold and the Jets to keep it close. How funny would it be if Adam Gase managed to win out the season and miss out on TWO quarterback prospects? Jets -9.5.

HK: The Jets are no longer winless (popping their cherry in impressive fashion against a well-coached Los Angeles Rams team), concluding one of the most unlikely storylines of the entire season. However, there’s absolutely no reason to believe they can (or want to) repeat this week. Already having lost the first overall spot, the Jets have little incentive to prove themselves in these last two weeks and will likely shut down for the season. The Browns are playing excellent football with a division title suddenly in play, fresh off an easy win against the New York Giants. The Browns should cover easily and will look to make a statement as they look towards the top of the playoff picture. Browns -9.5.

Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers (1:00PM)

Spread: Colts -1.5

O/U: 44.5

AB: After a stellar opening stretch, it seems like the NFL has figured out the Pittsburgh Steelers. Playing down to weak competition is nothing new for Mike Tomlin, and so I wouldn’t read anything too deep into the Bengals loss, but there’s also no way around the fact that the Colts are one of the most complete teams in football this season. The Colts excellent defense and an underrated season from Phil Rivers have helped propel Indianapolis to a 10–4 record, and I can’t really endorse betting on the Steelers until they prove they have gotten their ducks in a row. Colts -1.5.

HK: Something is wrong in The Steel City. Pittsburgh enters this matchup in the midst of a three game slide that features bottom-barrel opponents like the Bengals. In fact, Pittsburgh has lost against the spread in each of their last four matchups. As pundits always say, “who you are in December is who you are”. The Pittsburgh Steelers look like a genuinely fraudulent team. It starts at the quarterback position, where Big Ben has seemingly lost the battle to Father Time. He’s thrown an interception and compiled a passing rating below 100 in every game since Week 10. This is especially concerning in looking at his performance in last week’s matchup against the Bengals, who field a bottom-five defense. I have very little faith in his ability to turn it around against a strong Colts defense. The Steelers will need to rely on the rushing game to cover up his deficiencies, but the Colts currently field the 5th-best rushing defense in the league. On the flip side, the Colts have won three straight, including a sweep of frisky divisional rival Houston Texans. Expect the momentum to continue. Colts -1.5.

New York Giants at Baltimore Ravens (1:00PM)

Spread: Ravens -10

O/U: 43.5

AB: The Ravens suffered a major weak stretch during the middle of the season but their heart-stopping win against the Browns assured fans that they were not out of postseason contention yet. The Giants, on the other hand, very briefly made noise for division contention in November before a few losses made major threats to their playoff hopes. Daniel Jones has returned, but with a QB this turnover-prone against a defense as aggressive as Baltimore I’m not sure I’d consider it much of an upgrade. I think costly turnovers push the Ravens to a dominant victory. Ravens -10.

HK: The Ravens have covered in their last four games and have outright won in their last three. It’s a marked departure from an otherwise shaky year. This is a team built on rushing the ball (1st in the league by FAR) that mightily struggles at passing the ball (31st in the league). That is evident just from watching them. Against poor defenses, the Ravens have taken care of business easily. Against strong teams, they struggle to put up points and play from behind. Unfortunately for them, the Giants enter this game with the 6th best rushing defense. I expect the Giants to do enough on defense to cover a large 10 point spread. New York will have Daniel Jones back which will help their cause. Still, this will be a low scoring affair. Giants +10.

Carolina Panthers at Washington Football Team (4:05PM)

Spread: Football Team -1

O/U: 41.5

AB: Washington is still in the driver’s seat of the NFL’s worst division at 6–8, but the fact that the football team is still missing Alex Smith throws their hopes into jeopardy. Carolina is a scrappy team that hasn’t won a lot of games but has stayed close against the best teams, and this matchup could easily go either way. However, if there is one major weakness to Carolina it’s their secondary, and I don’t see how the Panthers are able to limit both Logan Thomas (a target who thrived with Haskins last week) and the Washington pass rush. Football Team -1.

HK: Washington hosts this matchup after covering the last five games in a row, including strong teams like Pittsburgh and Seattle. The Football Team has proven itself to be very real and is very much in the NFC East divisional championship race. The Panthers, meanwhile, continue to overachieve with little to no talent on either side of the roster. Having just fired their general manager two days ago and Teddy Bridgewater underwhelming, Matt Rhule has done an admirable job of navigating this ship and maintaining competency on both sides. Unfortunately, talent still matters and the Panthers offense has a poor matchup against a strong Washington defense. The combination of Sweat and Chase Young has done wonders for this defense, combining for 12.5 sacks and many many nightmares for opposing quarterbacks. On the back-end, they field a top-three passing defense led by CB Kendall Fuller. The Panthers simply do not have the firepower to match-up well against this defense. It is tough to bet on a replacement-level Dwayne Haskins, but with just a one point spread, Washington should comfortably cover in a low-scoring effort. Football Team -1.

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (4:05PM)

Spread: Chargers -3

O/U: 48.5

AB: Two teams who both feel like they should be better than their record, the Chargers and the Broncos both have plenty of talent and questionable coaches. These teams are very evenly matched, with a fantastic young quarterback in Los Angeles facing off against a defensive mastermind in Denver. This is going to be a game where I listen to my gut more than I listen to my brain, and my gut says a divisional game like this will end up being incredibly close and come down to a last second score. With that in mind — bet the underdog to cover. Broncos +3.

HK: The Broncos are similar to the Panthers, in that despite a dearth of talent on either side of the roster, they remain competitive against weaker teams. It’s a testament to relatively strong coaching from HC Vic Fangio (who is allegedly on the hot seat, firing him would be a mistake). However, they’ve given up 48, 31, 37, 34, 30, and 43 points to strong offenses. In short, their defense gets blown out against talent, and they play talent quite a bit in a capable AFC West division. This matchup against the Chargers should fall right in line with those statistics. Justin Herbert looks like the best quarterback in this draft and the complement of Ekeler and Keenan Allen makes this offense a threat for 30+ points every time they touch the field. The absence of Hunter Henry will hurt them and provide downward pressure on the eventual point total, but covering 3 should not be difficult for Los Angeles. Chargers -3. (LOCK)

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (4:25PM)

Spread: Seahawks -1.5

O/U: 47.5

AB: Once again, a game that could go either way. The Rams boast arguably the NFL’s best defense under Brandon Staley, and are looking to prove themselves after a humiliating loss to Adam Gase a week ago. Seahawks QB Russell Wilson has cooled off somewhat after his MVP campaign earlier in the season, but Seattle’s originally porous defense has shored up in the same amount of time. This is another game that could go either way, and one I’m definitely going to tune in to come Sunday, but I think the Rams dominating defense shuts down Wilson just like it did earlier in the year. Rams +1.5.

HK: Coming off an excruciatingly ugly loss to the Jets, the Rams suddenly find themselves on the outside looking in of this playoff race. Meanwhile, Seattle has clinched a playoff berth and are in prime position for an eventual division title. This game presents an opportunity for a much-needed moral and strategic victory for Sean McVay as he attempts to reestablish them as a potential contender. I expect the Rams to come out hot and play aggressive. From a statistics perspective, the Seahawks have the advantage, with a top-10 passing and rushing attack over the past three weeks. Still, weeks like these are less about talent and more about who wants the victory more. Rams +1.5.

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (4:25PM)

Spread: Eagles -2.5

O/U: 50

AB: The cowboys are one of the most talented teams in football coached by a group of careerist oafs who the NFL has long since passed by. The Eagles, on the other hand, are a team ravaged by injury strung together by a young quarterback and Super Bowl-winning coach. Jalen Hurts has lit a real fire in the bellies of Philadelphia, and while Dallas is talented they don’t strike me as a team with a real will to fight, even given some of their recent victories. I’m sure the Cowboys’ passing attack will cause some damage to a weak Eagles’ secondary, but I think the dynamic Hurts propels Philly to a divisional victory. Eagles -2.5.

HK: The Jalen Hurts Experience has revived the Philly fan base like no other time than…Nick Foles. Oof. It’s been a tough couple years since the Super Bowl run, but finally, they’ve stumbled upon a potential answer. In two starts, Hurts has thrown for 500 yards and 4 touchdowns, including one victory. He looks very real and, while the Eagles remain banged up on defense, this kind of momentum has a way of concealing holes elsewhere on the roster. The Cowboys’ victory last week against the Niners looks impressive at its face, but their 4 turnovers were against backup quarterback Nick Mullens. This Cowboys defense likely won’t be able to replicate that success against Hurts, who has shown good ball discipline and athleticism so far in his NFL career. Eagles -2.5.

Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers (8:20PM) (SNF)

Spread: Packers -3

O/U: 55.5

AB: This game has all the makings of an all time classic, with two of the most dangerous offenses in the NFL going head to head. Rodgers is looking to solidify an MVP campaign and a first round bye with a victory, and the Titans want to hold the division away from their rival Colts. Like Seahawks/Rams, this is a game that could easily go either way, but I just have a feeling about the Titans this game. Mike Pettine’s run defense has often left much to be desired, and Derrick Henry should rampage through the Green Bay defense like a crazed bull. Titans +3.

HK: The Titans/Packers game is the best matchup of the week, with two hot teams facing off and looking to make a strong statement ahead of the playoffs. The Titans are in a red-hot race in the AFC South, tied for the division lead with the slipping Pittsburgh Steelers. Meanwhile, the Packers look to maintain their lead for the 1st seed & bye heading into Week 17. A Packers win could result in them packing it in next week against the Bears, affecting playoff scenarios abound. Both have significant stakes on the line here. However, while the Packers have eventual-MVP Aaron Rodgers leading the charge and looking as strong as he’s ever looked, the Titans have suddenly looked like juggernauts. Their defense leaves a significant amount to be desired, but the Titans have the firepower to win shoot-outs. Over the past three games, the Titans are 2nd in points, 2nd in rushing yards, 2nd in passing yards, 1st in passing touchdowns, and 3rd in rushing touchdowns. Simply put, they have proven they can move the ball at will. On the other side, the Packers defense has been heavily penalized and susceptible to relatively simple offense concepts. Take the points in what should be a very close, very high scoring affair. Titans +3.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (Monday, 8:15PM)

Spread: Bills -7

O/U: 46.5

HK: Although Cam Newton looks to be healthy enough to start this game, it won’t help save face for the struggling Patriots. Stephon Gilmore will be absent and the Bills will likely profit generously from that, strengthening an already premier connection between Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs. Even with Gilmore, this is a bottom shelf defense that bears no resemblance to the usually stingy Belichick defenses of the past. Simply put, they don’t have the talent they once did (mostly for COVID opt-out reasons). Meanwhile, Newton’s presence may even hinder the Patriots, honestly. He’s playing genuinely bad football this year and Belichick needs to be rethinking the quarterback position in this upcoming offseason. Bills should easily cover here. Bills -7.

Our Card:

AB: Parlay: Bears -7.5, Titans +3.

HK: Falcons +10.5, Giants +10, WFT -1

Cumulative Record:

AB: 24–30–1 (.436)

HK: 28–34–1 (.444)