An outlook on the future of Electric Transport Alternatives
By: Anshuman Komirishetty
Tags: Electric Vehicles, Sustainability, Ecology, Transportation, Mining

Is 100% EV adoption for traditional transport for the future nearer than we think it is?

Are people willing to move away from conventional ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicles which have been in use for nearly a century now?

If so, what will be the ripple effects of the EV revolution across various industries and governments around the world?

ANALYZING THE GLOBAL EV MARKET

Electric cars’ sales reached 2.1 million globally in 2019, China remained the worlds largest EV market, with 2.3 million electric vehicles in active use. To put that into perspective, that’s nearly half of the global stock of EV’s. Europe and the US are far behind with 1.2 and 1.1 million EV’s respectively. But when it comes to relative terms, the situation in Europe is looking a lot more positive. While only 5.2% of China’s vehicles are electric, Norway has 56% of its vehicles running on Electricity. Iceland and the Netherlands have reached 26% and 15% penetration respectively.

COMMITTING TO EVs FOR THE FUTURE

Many traditional automakers and startups are hungry for a bite of what they hope will be a lucrative market. Industry mainstays like Volvo(Polestar) and Mercedes(EQ) are competing with market leaders like Tesla in both the personal vehicle space and the EVs of tomorrows freight market. Some of these companies have announced that these battery-electric trucks like the Tesla Semi and the Tesla Roadster are expected to be available and incorporated into transportation supply chains and logistic services in the coming years between 2022 to 2025.

Several countries have taken actions to curb emissions standards by proposing deadlines for the outlaw of vehicles’ sales with internal combustion engines. Norway has outlined the most aggressive targets, banning ICE sales (internal combustion engine) vehicles by 2025. Others, such as India, The Netherlands, and Germany, have proposed a 2030 target, while China is actively considering and studying a ban.

But with more EV’s, you’re going to need the infrastructure to charge them. Countries like the USA, China and India are all laying out milestone targets for the electric-car industry, by claiming to provide a significant surplus in charging points in the next two decades. However, It would be impractical to build charging infrastructure in nations with mountainous terrains and incompatible electrical grids like Nepal and Pakistan.

PROSPECTS OF ELECTRICAL ALTERNATIVES IN INDIA

India is a country with a high population density and an overarching commitment towards the environment. Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities across the country are more than willing to provide the necessary charging infrastructure to catalyze this transition towards electrical alternatives in traditional transport. Electrical Auto rickshaws and Mini-cabs are slowly becoming the new norm. Cities like Pune, Mumbai and Nagpur are gradually replacing ICE (internal combustion engine) buses with e-buses.

The government favours EVs as well. The future of EVs looks brighter than ever with the implementation of the FAME 2 scheme. EVs in India are free from permits, and as for expenses, Cars running on Diesel and Petrol have a 48% GST. In contrast, EVs only have 12% GST. EVs offer cheap energy storage, no capital cost and relatively low operating cost due to the decrease in moving parts. The policies are designed keeping multiple objectives in mind like job creation via product manufacturing, reducing the import of fossil fuels, and decreasing India’s carbon footprint as a whole.

ARE EV’s TRULY CLEAN?

The main reason for switching to electrical transport alternatives is to reduce our carbon footprint, But the switch to these zero-emission vehicles is not a zero-sum game. Electricity still needs to be drawn from somewhere.

About 38% of the worlds electricity production still comes from thermal power plants primarily fueled by coal, natural gas and biomass; this is the source of energy that causes the most pollution. The USA depends on thermal power plants to generate more than 25% of its power, and they make up 60% of China energy production and a whopping 72% of India’s Electricity.

According to future projections, electric vehicles will increase global electricity consumption by 7% by 2040.

As the demand for EVs rise, so will the demand for cleaner energy alternatives, which creates a need for materials like Lithium used in batteries to store Electricity, silver and copper used in solar production and charging infrastructure and other rare earth metals used in electric motors.

Approximately 14% of lithium demand comes from the EV sector; that share is projected to reach 40% by 2040. But Lithium is not alone, markets for cobalt and other rare earth metals will increase as well, which is where the real environmental and geopolitical effects must be watched closely.

Lithium and other mining activities cause groundwater depletion, soil contamination and other forms of ecological degradation. As for supply and efficiency, Lithium is relatively plentiful. The biggest challenge currently surrounding Lithium isn’t raw supply, but scaling the extraction process, which is presently more technically challenging than many other metals. Cobalt is not difficult to mine but presents a tricky set of supply chain challenges.

This year, EVs emitted 38 million tonnes of carbon dioxide. Compare that to 78 million tonnes an equivalent ICE vehicles fleet would have emitted. All emissions from EVs are born due to the manufacturing process, which cannot be applied for ICE vehicles. Therefore it seems safe to conclude that the debate about ecological impact is turning in favour of EVs.

In conclusion, Electricity shows a lot of promise for both customers and, commercial buyers in transport supply chains seeking sustainable options economically and ecologically. But measuring the actual sustainability benefits of EVs gets complicated. The full lifecycle emissions, and more specifically, the power source to create the Electricity, must be considered. Electricity generated from Thermal power plants still emits significant amounts of carbon emissions into the atmosphere. Charging infrastructure is yet to be as widely accessible as the conventional fossil fuel alternatives.

But, all issues pertaining to EVs right now are undoubtedly solvable considering future technological advancements. We are certainly in for an exciting drive towards a sustainable future.