Despite the Democrats’ fear over a 2016 repeat, data suggests the race is not as close as we may believe.
By: Anders L. Barretta
Tags: Election 2020, 2016 Election, Joe Biden, Democrats, Donald Trump

Despite the Democrats’ fear over a 2016 repeat, data suggests the race is not as close as we may believe. Anders L. Barretta Oct 30, 2020·9 min read

President Trump left, and former Vice President Joe Biden. (Associated Press)

Ever since Vice President Biden announced his candidacy in April 2019, I was under the impression that his campaign would dominate the democratic playing field and proceed to spearhead a referendum on Donald Trump with a decisive victory over the incumbent president. I also predicted that he would choose senator Kamala Harris as his running mate. My prediction since 2019 has always forecasted a victory for Biden, but as the Coronavirus and economic inflict considerable damage to the atmosphere of our nation, an array of new possibilities continue to brew. There will undoubtedly be more October surprises, dirt, lies, and baseless claims fueled by Donald Trump. The president is becoming more unpopular and failing to gain traction with the same white voters that awarded him with the presidency. He is almost self-destructing, and all Biden has to do is let that happen. It would require something so foreign to the nature of presidential elections to ruin the mass of voters rushing to the polls in favor of Biden.

2019 Forecast Pre Debates (May-June 2019)

Prediction of Electoral Map, Circa June 2019

Biden was always the frontrunner due to his popularity and high approval among Americans as the 47th vice president. Due to his affiliation with President Obama, Biden had the overwhelming majority of support from African Americans which is an integral voting block of the democratic party. He was always the candidate Trump feared. Trump feared the prospect of Biden as his opponent so much that he risked his entire presidency and faced impeachment. There was nothing much about Biden that really struck out to people, but there was a randomness to

Democratic presidential candidate former Vice President Joe Biden gestures while speaking during the first presidential debate Tuesday, Sept. 29, 2020, at Case Western University and Cleveland Clinic, in Cleveland, Ohio. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)

2020 Forecast, Biden Presumptive Nominee (Early March)

Prediction of Electoral Map, Circa March 2019

The most convincing aspect of the former vice president’s campaign has been the consistency. National polls have become increasingly more accurate when compared to 2016 and show a disparity in Clinton’s run vs. Biden’s. The former vice president has maintained a lead between seven-ten points for well over a year. Hillary Clinton never really got more than four. National polls are typically immaterial due to how they are often skewed by predominantly liberal states with large populations like California. However, they are indicative of what is to come and are subject to a comparison of previous elections. After a year of convincing polls in favor of democrats, it showed this lead in national polls that were reminiscent of the way Ronald Reagan defeated Jimmy Carter in 1980. A convincing lead for a challenger of an incumbent is quite rare and only occurs when the election is a clear referendum on the incumbent. Obviously, the likelihood of a 45 state tidal wave, last seen in 1984 is infeasible. In spite of the fact that landslide elections typically do not happen in the United State’s current political dynamic, the win conditions for Biden could not be better.

2020 Forecast Post Coronavirus spike (July 2020)

Prediction of Electoral Map, July 2020

The coronavirus is a devastating topic that will certainly alter the outcome of this election. As of June 1st, it killed over 100,000 Americans and it is irrefutable that the severity of it was fueled by the unwillingness of Donald Trump to act. Just as we thought things were cooling down in June, massive spikes occurred across the Sun Belt. People were dying at inconceivable rates and horrors we witnessed in New York during April became a reality in the southern half of our nation. However, one thing remained constant. The negligence and indifference of the Trump administration to protect and meet the needs of struggling American people. Republicans in Florida, Arizona, Texas were outraged at the man they had elected. This presented the Biden campaign with an unforeseen political advantage. The ineptitude to respond saw polls skyrocket in favor of Joe Biden as they saw him as the only choice. Trump quickly became aware of his dwindling chances and loss of support in areas he previously thought was his territory. He wreaked havoc. Suggested delaying the election, tried to downplay things, evade responsibility.

And then there was the issue of race. The brutal police assassination of George Floyd along with the unwarranted killing of Breonna Taylor ignited protests across the nation that brought violence, but mostly peace. This continued for days and weeks. It did not help Donald Trump in the slightest. The Lafayette Square incident in particular was outrageous. These are the factors that gave Joe Biden a commanding lead as of July.

2020 Forecast, 35 Days Remain (Post First Debate)

As previously stated in the 2019 forecast, the prospect of a Donald Trump victory is and has been dwindling. There are no win conditions or data to suggest that he can win this election. It is simply infeasible. The time limit has been reached. Now, the final stretch of October has been reached and Trump’s remarks of our fallen soldiers were confirmed to the American people, Bob Woodward confirmed that he knew of the Coronavirus’ severity yet downplayed it, and now we know of his $750 dollars paid in tax returns. The president created a new precedent for debates as he was profoundly crude and dishonorable to the moderator and his opposition. The lack of decency and respect presented by Donald Trump disputes the already dwindling number of undecided voters as they flock to Biden. Polls now suggest that states not won by democrats since Lyndon Johnson may be in play. States such as Ohio and Georgia have now seen Biden leads for over a week. South Carolina, Alaska, Arkansas, Missouri, and Texas are now in play. This election is now a matter of how big will the margin be? How badly will Trump lose? Will he lose Texas, will be the death of the GOP. Keep in mind, the chances of Trump winning the popular vote are 1 in 100. If the democrats obtain all chambers of congress and the white house, there stands a high chance that the electoral college could be abolished. This would forever destroy any chances of future GOP victories. As Donald Trump once said, “Elections have consequences.”

Prediction of Electoral Map, October 2020

2020 Election with Regard to History

It may be difficult to compare this election with those of the past because 2020 is unalike any year in history. There is a global pandemic, rapidly changing demographics, astronomically high early voting numbers, and large numbers of mail-in ballots. Data suggests that this election may not be resolved for a few days following November 3, but it totally depends on how states like Pennsylvania and Florida vote as those 2 can alone decide the outcome of the election. Allan Lichtman, a famed historian, and political analyst have correctly predicted every presidential election since 1984. He predicts Trump will lose to Biden as his “13 Keys to the White House” suggest so.

Trump

III II

Biden

III III II

Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. Third-party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by a major scandal. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. Incumbent (party) charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. Challenger (party) charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

How each state has voted since FDR

Predictions

As we all know, anything is on the cards, however, the chances of a Trump presidency have completely dwindled. There is almost certainly in the minds of all political analysts that he will lose. It is now a matter of how badly, how convincing? Texas is the big question, Biden has always had great support there as exhibited in the primaries and current polling. Biden could win Georgia either or Alaska and totally thwart any chance of a Trump re-election. However, the electoral map will probably see something of a 350–188 margin. We must now wait and sit back for the mayhem that is to come in the remaining days. The best-case scenario for Democrats would be to take all swing states including Texas, which is a very possible situation due to the country’s current political dynamic. A new question arises: will it be like 1964 or like 2012?

President Johnson’s 1964 victory, walking over Republican opponent Barry Goldwater by 22.6%, receiving 61.1% of the popular vote, the most monumentally lopsided victory in presidential history.

It would take virtually everything to play in favor of the Democrats for a landslide to take place in a further polarizing political environment where landslides no longer exist. However, winning the states of Texas, Georgia, and Ohio may not be as far fetched as originally perceived.

BY ERIN SCHAFF/NEW YORK TIMES/BLOOMBERG/GETTY IMAGES.

However, it would be unreasonable to suggest that a Biden victory would include the states of Alaska and Texas. While totally possible, the polarized political dynamic is not strong enough to deter such voters. However, there is an overwhelming abundance of factors and data to suggest the possibility of a decisive Biden victory. Here is my map that predicts the election 14 days prior

Prediction of Electoral Map, Mid October 2020

Here are my 14 reasons as to why I believe a Democratic victory will take place in the order of consequence.

Donald Trump is the incumbent Joe Biden is NOT Hillary Clinton For Biden to be victorious all he must do is regain the smallest margin below 1% of rust belt voters that Donald Trump stole in the blue wall states (WI, MI, and PA) Demographic changes Biden’s extensive paths to victor and continuously growing coalition vs Trump’s limited options and diminishing base Decisive 2018 midterm election results Senior voters and women overwhelming express support for Biden An unprecedented coalition of Republican and Independents in favor of Biden Most civically and socially youth with a determination to vote blue More active and mobilized Black Community that votes almost entirely Democrat

With just a few days remaining, we know that well over 75 million votes have been cast in person. This is a record-shattering number that is a catastrophic blow to many Republicans’ plan to see unmotivated and unenthusiastic voters like 2016. However, that is simply not the case. Record voter registration numbers and turnout are yet another unforeseen advantage. The closing case for each campaign has been made and there is simply nothing to suggest that things will in favor of the Trump campaign. There has not been one sign that shows potential. Poll after poll has been far outside the margin of error in favor of Biden with young voters spearheading the movement. States like Texas and Arizona that haven’t gone for a democrat since Presidents Jimmy Carter and Franklin Roosevelt respectively are showing promise. Nobody was confident about Trump’s chances in 2016, pundits understood where they went wrong, as did voters as their turnout numbers suggested in 2018. However, now there is little standing in the way of a Biden victory and it is only a matter of days until the American people know the future of our country.

Here is my final prediction. In terms of the popular vote, I believe this election will tip in favor of Biden between 7–9 million votes with a popular vote share near 53%-43%