A Presidential Two-For-One Sale
By: John Dean
Tags: White House, Biden, Election 2020, Politics, Kamala Harris

A Presidential Two-For-One Sale

Two Presidents Will be Elected on November 3 if Biden Wins

Photo from https://joebiden.com/

What is at stake in next month’s Presidential election? A lot, including the chance to select two Presidents at once. He has described himself as a “transition candidate.” In May, he did that referring to a promising future for Pete Buttigieg, but the comment could equally apply to his ultimate choice of a running mate.

Without his explicitly saying it, Biden is offering voters a two-for-one deal. Vote for him, and you get two Presidents, Biden and President-in-waiting Kamala Harris.

The Reality of Nominating a 77-Year-Old Nominee

Democrats have nominated a 77-year-old for President. That justifies taking a good look at Kamala Harris. If Biden wins the election, as polls continue to indicate, there is a high probability that Harris will be President, hopefully, later, but possibly sooner.

The most probable route to the White House for Harris is the 2024 election. Assuming Biden serves a full 4-year term, she will be a sitting Vice President. She is also likely to enjoy the endorsement of Senator Biden. Including her on the 2020 ticket gained or firmed up support from African American and other voters who wanted to see her as the Presidential nominee or who were supporting Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ), Stacey Abrams, or another candidate of color. Democrats may face intra-party resistance to considering another nominee if Harris remains free of scandal.

Bookmakers’ Odds:

Joe Biden will be 81 in 2024. Although Biden has hinted he may run for a second term, strong voter resistance to an octogenarian candidate is likely. Common sense says he won’t run again. That makes Kamala Harris the front-runner to win the Presidency in 2024. Casino.com reports:

UK bookmakers, which are permitted to offer legal lines on political outcomes, something not the case in legal sports betting states in the US, have Harris at 6/1 to win in 2024.

Newsweek reported that “bookmakers,” citing Harris’ success in this year’s vice-presidential debate, gives Harris 3–1 odds of winning in 2024. Mike Pence received 33–1 odds. The magazine increased Harris’ odds after the October 7 vice presidential debate.

Oddsmakers are assuming a Biden win. Their long-shot odds for Mike Pence likely reflect the assumption that residual dislike for Donald Trump will “trump” any benefit he may get as a former vice president. There are also questions about whether there will be a competitive Republican party in existence three years from now.

What if Biden Becomes Incapacitated or Dies?

Although American politics have become something of a spectator sport, we are unlikely to see mainstream news organizations developing odds or predictions on whether a President Biden or a re-elected President Trump will die in office. This does not mean that the subject is being ignored. For example, the Atlantic recently published an article outlining what happens if a Presidential candidate dies before election day.

Actuaries, best known for their work in the insurance industry, make predictions of this type all the time, looking at whole populations rather than individuals. Last February, Politico noted that aging researcher Dr. S. Jay Oshansky suggested a 79.2% chance of Biden surviving a four-year term. He gave Trump 84.7%.

Given Reality, the Biden-Harris Ticket is a Two-for-One Deal

The actuarial odds are against Joe Biden (as well as Donald Trump). This justifies viewing the Democratic ticket (and the Republicans’) as a two for one deal. In the case of Biden, it looks like an attractive one.

This view is nothing new. Politico’s Jack Shafer suggested the 2020 Democratic ticket would be a two-for-one deal in February:

If the Democratic Party is paying attention to this actuarial action — and I think it is — their next veep nominee won’t be another no-name ticket balancer picked to satisfy the geographic, gender, and ethnic needs of the ticket. Rather, he or she will be selected with the understanding that he or she stands a higher statistical chance of completing the term of the president than previous vice presidents. Instead of nominating one prospective president, the Democrats, especially, will effectively be nominating two. . ..

Shafer underestimated the priority Democrats placed on the importance of putting a woman of color on the ticket, but the party still managed to pick a healthy, competent, experienced, and relatively young 55-year-old candidate.

Who is Kamala Harris?

A full discussion of Senator Kamala Harris is beyond the scope of this article. Still, a few highlights suggest she would have been a viable, probably successful, candidate for President had she won the nomination instead of Biden.

Harris is viewed as more liberal than Biden but has, as expected, endorsed the Biden platform since being selected as his running mate. If she were to ascend to the Presidency, she likely would be viewed as more progressive than Biden, but more moderate than some other prominent Democrats, including Senators Warren and Sanders, as well as AOC.

On individual issues, Harris is perhaps best known for first endorsing Sanders’ plan for universal health care and then backing away from it, even before being chosen as the VP nominee. She also supported the New Green Deal.

Harris has declined to call for “defunding the police.” In her previous role as Attorney General of California, she supported police and supported policies now criticized as unfair to African Americans. These positions appear not to have hurt her popularity among Democrats to date.

A Presidential Understudy

If elected, Biden is likely to include Harris in aspects of the Presidency to prepare her to assume the office should he become disabled or die. This is likely to make her service as VP somewhat, but not wholly unique. Other Presidents, most recently Barack Obama and George W. Bush, have involved their number twos in significant decisions and policymakers. In both cases, the selection of strong, experienced running mates was a means of compensating for deficiencies in foreign policy or other experience.

Those past vice presidencies are viewed as models for future Presidents. Biden and Harris will create a new model, that of the Presidential understudy. Harris will partner with Biden to prepare to take over the Presidency at a moment’s notice.

This Two-for-One Sale Is a Bargain

One measure of the value of a bargain is its relationship to alternatives. Because the Biden-Harris ticket is running against Trump-Pence, it would be worth voting for Biden if he had made a poor choice of a running mate. He didn’t. Although no candidate is perfect, Harris appears to be a good choice.

Since joining the ticket, Harris has conducted a largely gaffe-free campaign and, but for the attacks from racists and hard-core Trumpers, is viewed as a trustworthy, mainstream nomination. That is quite an accomplishment for the first African American, Asian-American woman nominee on what is likely to be a winning ticket.

Bottom line. Buy the two-for-one deal.