On Climate Volatility and Contrarian “Science”
By: Mike Co
Tags: Climate Change, World, Science, Environment, Politics

2020 has brought fires, floods and hurricanes across the world alongside novel forms of climate change denialism. Consider Patrick Moore, a so-called scientist with a significant Twitter following who claims:

“Any effect of CO2 on temperature could easily be overridden by other factors. The long historical record does not support CO2 as some kind of control knob as NASA claims. They’re not in sync.”

To support his contrarian claim, Moore posts a compelling visual of CO2 levels vs. global temperature, albeit without citation. The chart seems to indicate a dubious correlation between CO2 and temperature (although it also seems that in the past 65 million years CO2 levels and temperature have declined in parallel).

Moore’s source-less chart

As is often the problem with social media, it is difficult to verify the claims of influential contrarians who invoke “logic” while obscuring methodology. As logical observers, we have a couple reasonable options:

Trust, but verify Don’t trust, verify

With some determined Googling, on Skeptics’ Stack Exchange it appears the time series does indeed have a source: a 2001 paper by Yale geophysicists. However it’s also potentially misleading, so let’s cross-check a more recent timeframe and study. By analyzing the past 800,000 years of history according to the NOAA, there is a powerful synchronization of atmospheric CO2 with global temperature and sea levels.

Temperature, sea level, and atmospheric CO2 indicate a powerful synchronization over the past 800k years:

As CO2 concentration rises, the sun’s radiance is trapped more effectively by the atmosphere. As temperature rises, ice caps melt and sea levels rise. By zooming in on more recent datasets by the NOAA, atmospheric CO2, global temperatures, and sea levels have been on sharp upward trends since 1959.

Rasmus Tonboe, a scientist at the Danish Meteorological Institute has posited that “The October Arctic sea ice extent is going to be the lowest on record and the sea ice growth rate is slower than normal.” Reported by the Guardian, “A new Nature Climate Change study predicts that summer sea ice floating on the surface of the Arctic Ocean could disappear entirely by 2035.”

Millions of people will be displaced by sea level rise and the effects of climate change. In 2020, record temperatures in places like Australia and the Western U.S. are exacerbating unprecedented fires. But on the other hand, sensational “scientists” like Patrick Moore imply that CO2 emission is not something we should worry too much about.

Indeed, other control knobs certainly affect the Earth’s temperature other than CO2 concentration. Other greenhouse gases harness heat from the sun such as methane. Over the past few decades, atmospheric methane levels have been rising primarily due to industrial beef production.

Another key control knob of Earth’s temperature is also the degree of the sun’s radiance in itself. The unprecedented growth of CO2 emissions is overwhelming natural solar cycles that influence warming and cooling. According to NASA:

“The amount of solar energy received by the Earth has followed the Sun’s natural 11-year cycle of small ups and downs with no net increase since the 1950s. Over the same period, global temperature has risen markedly. It is therefore extremely unlikely that the Sun has caused the observed global temperature warming trend over the past half-century.”

The divergence is almost certainly due to the rise of global greenhouse gas emissions. Which countries account for the majority of global CO2 emissions?

Since 1945, the rate of global CO2 emissions have risen by almost seven times. Accounting by relative share of global CO2 emissions, Asia, primarily led by China, currently accounts for over 50%.

Short of a radical shift, it is unlikely the world will be able to reduce global CO2 emissions and reverse the trend. In the name of climate change, government interference in energy markets often leads to negative effects for hard-working citizens. Take France for example, where carbon taxes triggered the Yellow Vest protests that disrupted the country for months.

One of the most macroprudential measures a nation can pursue is mass tree planting, an ideal form of carbon capture. Knowing the existential threat of apocalyptic smog and flooding, China has also led the world in planting billions of trees. As reported by NASA:

“The world is literally a greener place than it was twenty years ago, and data from NASA satellites has revealed a counterintuitive source for much of this new foliage. A new study shows that China and India — the world’s most populous countries — are leading the increase in greening on land. The effect comes mostly from ambitious tree-planting programs in China and intensive agriculture in both countries.”

Trees are a natural and effective solution for capturing CO2 from the atmosphere, along with other harmful particulates. Trees help absorb and guard against flooding and soil erosion. Trees help regulate temperature. Trees help promote biodiversity. Billions of trees have already been planted, but it is not nearly enough.

World leaders need to pursue an accord to plant trillions of trees. It is likely our only hope to stabilize our climate.