Corona Second Wave— A detailed Analysis
Tags: Corona

Corona Epidemiological models, usually project absurd numbers. However I have always relied on IHME models which are considered to be most accurate by the US,CDC. These models form the basis for forecasting and surveillance by US Policy makers.

So, when nobody is talking of the magnitude of the second wave, I have tried to analyze a key model from IHME, USA which has projected the following numbers for Indian cities. These projections have to be taken with caution. However, I would advise that if the current trends continue, then the peak and the dates of medical system failure as indicated by the models may well be true. In this article I have considered only Maharashtra.

Maharashtra — The numbers have been rising right from March 21 and the estimated peak appears to be around 3 lakh infections per day and guess what it projects the peak at 15th April, that is today. So question to be asked is when the curve was going up from March 21 to April 21, why did not the government ramp up the medical infra or why did not the government procure adequate medical supplies like Remdesivir

https://www.indiatoday.in/coronavirus-outbreak/story/remdesivir-covid-injection-india-export-demand-1789882-2021-04-12

Indian companies exported 11 lakh units of Remdesivir abroad in the last six months.

“Seven Indian companies are producing Remdesivir under voluntary licensing agreement with M/s. Gilead Sciences, USA. They have an installed capacity of about 38.80 lakh units per month,” a government statement said. ( Source: India Today )

I went to Gilead Sciences and was completely surprised. Almost all the voluntary licensing agreements for manufacture of Remdesivir is from Indian Companies.

The agreements allow the companies — Cipla Ltd.; Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories Ltd.; Eva Pharma; Ferozsons Laboratories; Hetero Labs Ltd.; Jubilant Lifesciences; Mylan; Syngene, a Biocon company; and Zydus Cadila Healthcare Ltd. — to manufacture remdesivir for distribution in 127 countries.

India is a leader in Manufacture of Remdesivir for the World. Surely we are Atmanirbar in these medicines. So how come the drug controller messed up with this… Did they assume that corona was all over and India has achieved Herd Immunity without vaccines? Now you cant blame the center for this …. Drug controllers are under state governments and they were clearly under the state government control.

Now what is the result, we have reached the peak on April 15th 2021 without sufficient stock of Remdesivir in the country. These stock would have played a crucial role. What are the expected number of deaths in coming days?

Maharashtra will have a peak death rate of around 1500 deaths per day as per the IHME Model. Even if we assume 1000 deaths per day, this is huge and this is complete collapse of the system.

So the Mayhem has just started in Maharashtra and the model projects approximately 50000 deaths in the next 6 to 8 weeks. Now these numbers can be less, but significant number of deaths will happen.

Now based on these models, there is a requirement of 10000 beds as on May 2nd and this is only a requirement of ICU. Atleast 100000 beds are required for regular patients. This appears to be completely crazy numbers.

So now the hospitals will only overflow in the next 6 to 8 weeks and people will rush their dear ones from one hospital to another. Many will be at the mercy of the black marketers who will extract the maximum out of the middle class.

How was this allowed to happen when we had successfully fought the first wave and now we are well passed the peak and waiting for the dearest ones to die without proper medical care and facilities?

Why is Remdesivir so important?

It’s because its the only available cure approved globally. This probably works and that’s the only reason why so many countries are stocking Remdesivir. For this we need to understand how corona works

Remdesivir works well in Moderate and Severe Stages and has helped many from the clutches of death. This is a life saving drugs. See the UK report on this Final report confirms remdesivir benefits for COVID-19 | National Institutes of Health (NIH)

So the only option in Moderate and Severe cases is Remdesivir and Dexamethasone. Only this works in these cases and this is also the prescribed medicines in many hospitals (Source: NIH)

Again if you see Dexamethasone, India is again a leader in the world. Here too we have exported a ton. Hopefully we should not have a shortage in this too.

What about the Vaccination rate ?

So you can see India is at just 10% vaccination, while many countries like US and UK are reaching a vaccination rate of more than 40 to 50%.

India has just vaccinated 7.3% which is very less.

The present growth in corona number is driven by the UK variant and research shows its more deadlier than the earlier one. That is once infection is there, the chances of a person dying is higher. However surprisingly they are noticing that the chances are lesser with a vaccinated person. So the evidence is now clear that you can get infected after vaccination, but surely the chances of getting a severe disease post vaccination is very less. So vaccination should be opened up for all. There is increasing number of young people dying from corona. With work and public transport, risk for younger groups in the age group 30 yrs to 45 yrs is the highest. So time to open up vaccination for all.

Unlike what is stated about Vaccine Hesitancy, a recent McKinsey Survey clearly showed 87% of the Indians want to get vaccinated.

87% of Indians want to get vaccinated. ( When will the COVID-19 pandemic end? | McKinsey )

Now the problem in India, is that we have placed a huge responsibility of providing the vaccines on one company.

Report from the Scientific Journal Nature which clearly showed that vaccination shortages because of no supply by Serum Institute. India’s COVID-vaccine woes — by the numbers (nature.com)

Now if you see the above picture, other global drug manufacturers like Moderna and Pfizer are not approved in India, while they are the leading suppliers of vaccines in US and the other countries. The reliance on one company may have costed Indian’s their crucial vaccine. And now these companies are not keen in Supplying to India and Serum Institute is asking Rs 3000 cr for ramping up production. So clearly there is no production possible atleast in the next 15 to 20 days. See the article below, which tells that big companies are not interested in entering India, but these same companies have huge manufacturing facilities in India.

Modi govt wants more Covid vaccines, but Moderna is ‘not keen’ & Pfizer has this ‘condition’ (theprint.in)

More irritating is the vaccine supply to neighboring countries in the name of vaccine diplomacy. Look at the number of doses exported under vaccine diplomacy below

Vaccine Supply (mea.gov.in)

Almost 6 crores vaccines exported under the name of Vaccine Diplomacy. When people are not getting vaccines at Home…I don't know what kind of a diplomacy is this…When countries like US and UK are gobbling up the entire vaccine supply chain…We are doling out vaccines at the cost of Indian citizens. Think what could have happened if 6 crores vaccines could have been administered by now in cities like Mumbai and Bangalore. Half the corona battle would have been won!!!

Majority of the young Indians who work really want to take vaccine and continue with work. They have the burden of too much responsibility on their head. Now these population has no access to vaccines and also has the highest risk of infections because of work related and travel related infections.

How much more time do we have to wait for a vaccination?

Let’s see what is the time by which every Indian would be vaccinated. Data from a major study carried out by Newyork Times states that India will take atleast 116 months to vaccinate its entire population.

India will take 116 months for vaccination

So the above numbers are true, India will take atleast eternity to vaccinate every one. Atleast one thing is sure, we will be the last to be vaccinated. Now by that time, how many more waves should we face.

So friends, please take care in the next 4 to 8 weeks. Since there will extreme stress of Medical Infra, I advice you to take extreme care and please dont get infected.

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