Peru: What do the data from the last 4 elections tell us?
By: Javier Lazarte
Tags: Dataviz, Elections, Peru

The earth does not vote; people, yes.

For the territorial analysis, the location of the populated communities was used and the percentage of votes at the district level was assigned to them. In addition, its variation with respect to its location by altitudinal tiers was analyzed.

Considering the difference in the number of votes, in approximately 90% of the country’s surface the votes for one or the other candidate have had a maximum difference of 5000 votes per district. This is indicative of the small population that exists in various regions and populated communities, it also indicates that the areas with polarizing votes are the minority. There is a correlation in the difference in votes in the 2006, 2011 and 2021 elections in coastal and highland areas.

Most of the districts of Metropolitan Lima and Callao have voted towards the same political direction in 2006, 2011 and 2021, however, in 2016 there was a highly divided vote.

Altitudinal tiers and watersheds in Peru.

The higher the altitude, the greater the support for Humala and Castillo.

There is a correlation between the electoral behavior of the populated communities with respect to their location on the altitudinal tiers in the 2006, 2011 and 2021 elections. This correlation did not exist in the 2006 elections on the altitudinal floor of Costa or Chala. In addition, in 2016 the number of populated communities with a percentage of votes close to a tie is higher than in other years.

Normally most of the populated communities of the Coast have voted towards the losing candidate, only in 2006 this did not happen.

In 2021, the number of populated communities where Peru Libre won begins with 17.4% of those located on the Coast, increases to 96.8% of the populated communities of Janca or Cordillera, and then decreases to 55.2% of the populated communities of the low jungle. A similar curve occurs towards the “left” candidates in 2006 and 2011.

The highest concentration of populated communities is located in Jalca, Quechua and Suni, in that order. In 2006 in these altitudinal tiers the intention to vote was oriented towards Union for Peru, in 2011 it was towards Gana Peru; in 2016 towards PPK and in 2021 they were concentrated for Peru Libre.

Percentage of votes in the second round at the district level in populated communities in 2006, 2011, 2016, 2021. Source: INEI, ONPE.

Number of populated communities by altitude tier according to vote in 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021. Source: ONPE

Percentage of populated communities by altitude tier according to vote in 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021. Source: ONPE

Number of populated communities by altitude tier according to percentage of vote in 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021. Source: ONPE

The southern vote is not homogeneous

When analyzing the frequency of votes by district that tend to be tied, in other words, those in which the difference in votes towards one or the other candidate is less than 500 votes, it is noted that a large part of the highland, jungle and the central-south from the coast have these features. This may be a result of the low population in many populated communities. It should be noted that the regions of Cusco, Puno, the provinces of Metropolitan Lima and Callao, as well as the capitals of the regions, do not have this feature due to their larger population.

In addition, when performing the analysis at the level of percentage of votes by district, that is, those districts in which the percentage of votes in favor of a candidate is around 50%, it is observed that some districts in the south, Madre de Dios and Huánuco maintain a behavior outside the tie.

Analyzing the frequency of tie votes in quantity and percentage helps to understand that the south cannot be grouped as a geographical area with uniform behavior.

Frequency of tied votes in quantity (left) and percentage (right) in 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021. Source: INEI, ONPE.

Lima and its unique trend.