The Compelling Race for NFL Coach of the Year
By: Alex Brigandi- The Stats Guy
Tags: NFL, Sports Journalists, Sports Betting, NFL Playoffs, Coaching

The Compelling Race for NFL Coach of the Year

There’s at least seven coaches this season that deserve legitimate consideration for the award.

The 2017 NFL season has been a remarkable year for coaching. No other year in recent memory has given us so many viable coach of the year candidates. There are multiple fantastic-turnaround-of-a-moribund-franchise coaching stories, as well as multiple Superbowl winning coaches having one of their best seasons. Let’s review the candidates, and go over the pros and cons of each one to see if we can determine which of these guys deserve to win coach of the year the most.

Sean McVay- Los Angeles Rams

Pros: In his first year as head coach, Sean McVay has exceeded even the most optimistic expectations about what he could accomplish this year with the Rams. Going by what everyone saw from Jared Goff last year, no one could have imagined that McVay could instantly turn the worst offense in the NFL into one of the best. He also has an aesthetic that belies his age, so in comparing him to other young coaches, he’s much more like John Gruden than he is Lane Kiffin. I didn’t think he would pass the test of being an NFL head coach so easily, but he did.

Cons: If the Rams lose to the Seahawks in Seattle this week, then they drop to 2nd in the NFC West. Considering all the outstanding candidates for coach of the year this season, can we really give it to someone who didn’t even win their division? So winning out will really help his cause. Also, if there is a slight blemish on the job McVay has done, it’s that he has basically delegated oversight of the defense to Wade Phillips. If we are talking about NFL Offensive Coordinator of the Year, then yeah, McVay would win hands down. However, one could argue that the Rams basically have a co-head coach, which somewhat diminishes the job he has done. Is that analysis a little harsh? Yeah it is, but in order to differentiate between the bumper crop of great candidates we have, there’s going to be some splitting of hairs here.

Verdict: Considering the dramatic turnaround from a first year head coach, I think McVay is the odds-on favorite to win the award. However, he’s not my first choice if I had a vote. (Good news for Sean McVay fans: I don’t.) But he’s still done a hell of a job, and it looks like Jared Goff is a legitimate NFL quarterback thanks to him.

Doug Pederson- Philadelphia Eagles

Pros: You can basically give the same superlatives to Pederson as we did to McVay, the only difference being that Pederson is doing it in year two vs. year one. In his second year, the Eagles became a juggernaut under Pederson, with Carson Wentz being the virtual shoe-in to be MVP (until he went down) thanks to his head coach. The Eagles lead the league in points per game, with Pederson as the playcaller and offensive architect. Carson Wentz being out for the year could actually strengthen Pederson’s case for winning coach of the year if the offense keeps humming along under Nick Foles.

Cons: The flip side to that coin is that if the offense struggles for the last few games, it could plant a seed in the minds of voters that the offensive success was do more to the extraordinary talents of Wentz rather than the offensive system itself. Also, since we split hairs for McVay, it’s only fair to point out that I don’t love Pederson’s game managing history. (It seems the offensive system wasn’t the only thing he learned from Andy Reid.) Can anyone forget the criticism against him when he was offensive coordinator for the Chiefs? Yes, he’s made some questionable decisions as Eagles coach too. Although he’s not the most egregious game manager on this list, (Keep reading to see who gets that honor) it’s tough to ignore such a crucial aspect to being head coach.

Verdict: Up in the air. I think if Pederson keeps the Eagles rolling with Nick Foles, and he gets the number one seed in the NFC, then the award should be his. If not, then considering the dearth of worthy candidates, I’d look to give the award elsewhere.

Mike Zimmer- Minnesota Vikings

Pros: How can you not be impressed with the job Zimmer has done with the Vikings? Zimmer is a defensive guru that brought his pressure defense to Minnesota with incredible success. The Vikings are the only team in the NFL to be top-5 in passing yards against, rushing yards against, and points against. However, the reason why the Vikings have been so successful this year is because the offense is finally holding their own, and Zimmer deftly handled what could have been a rift-inducing quarterback controversy with ease. Granted, Case Keenum’s play made his decision easy, but lesser coaches could have made a mess of that. Considering the Vikings are 10–3 with someone who is essentially their third choice as QB, you have to give plenty of consideration for Zimmer as coach of the year. Also, overcoming a eye injury as a compelling personal story can’t hurt his cause.

Cons: This is a little subjective, but it feels like the job Zimmer has done has been only very good when other candidates have been great. Perhaps in a year with weaker competition, Zimmer’s season would have been a lock, but in this year it feels like he’s going to end up coming in third. Last week’s game against the Panthers makes me worry that the Case Keenum experience is about to run out of gas. Considering how badly the Vikings faded last year, you can excuse me for thinking that- I hope for the Vikings’ sake that’s just perceptual bias.

Verdict: While I doubt Mike Zimmer actually wins the award, if it ends up happening I would be totally fine with it. The Vikings accomplishing what they have this year deserves accolades, and Zimmer has proven himself to be an excellent head coach than can handle and adjust to adversity.

Bill Belichick- New England Patriots

Pros: Let’s face it: If “Coach of the Year” were simply given to the best coach in a given season, then I would be hard pressed to think of a season since 2001 where Bill Belichick wouldn’t have won the award. It’s analogous to the NBA back in the 90's: Michael Jordan should’ve won MVP every year for about ten years, but didn’t because that would’ve been boring. So let’s not overthink this. Bill Belichick is the best coach in NFL today, probably of all time, and deserves to win coach of the year accordingly.

Cons: This year hasn’t been the greatest year for the Patriots, as they have had a handful of poor performances that have been uncharacteristic. Unfair or not, I think the standard for Belichick is higher than every other coach to win this award. Going 12–4 with a first round bye is routine, pedestrian stuff. For Belichick to be realistically be in the running for this award, the Pats need to have some sort of record-setting year, and its not really happening this year.

Verdict: The best coach in the NFL is not going to win coach of the year this season.

Mike Tomlin- Pittsburgh Steelers

Pros: Is this the year Mike Tomlin finally gets his due? If the Steelers can slay their dragon this week, beating the Patriots and securing home field advantage in the AFC, you certainly have to throw Tomlin’s hat into the ring. At first thought, I’m surprised that Tomlin hasn’t won this award already, but then again it seems like Tomlin is always being criticized more than praised, even while reaching the pinnacle of success and never having a losing season in 11 years as a head coach. When he won the Superbowl, critics said that it was still Bill Cowher’s team. Then critics said he is a “cheerleader” more than a coach. Honestly, this is BS. You don’t think Mike Tomlin could’ve run the defense for the Steelers if he wanted to? When he took over for Bill Cowher in 2007, Tomlin was highly regarded for the cover-2 system he helped develop in Tampa, which achieved incredible success by requiring pressure from a front four with minimal blitzing. However, he was jumping into a Steelers team that had an established and successful 3–4 defense with complex blitzing and pressure from all over the place- the virtual antithesis of the Tampa-2. So what did Tomlin do? He recognized that Dick Lebeau’s system wasn’t broke, so it shouldn’t be tampered with. Many other coaches would’ve forced his square-peg players to play in his round-hole system- we have seen that scenario many times with typically poor results. Tomlin never received the credit for this, and because of his astute leadership, the not-broke Steelers won a Superbowl in his third season.

The idea that a head coach should be involved in every x and o otherwise they aren’t an important part of the team is an ignorant point of view. Head coaches are like CEOs- and sometimes micromanaging overburdens the team more than anything. Think about coaches that struggle with juggling multiple roles. Usually in order to save their job they reluctantly delegate. (Just look at what Andy Reid had to do recently.) Doesn’t that make the case that they should’ve delegated that role in the first place? One of the secrets to Tomlin’s success is that he lets his coaches coach and his players play. He treats everyone like men, which has earned the respect of everyone around him. Add the fact that he’s passionate and inspiring, and I can’t think of another coach I’d rather play for or another organization I’d rather be in- and Mike Tomlin is a big part of that. If the Steelers go 14–2, Mike Tomlin deserves heavy consideration for a well-deserved coach of the year award.

Cons: Remember when I alluded to a coach that was worse at game management than Doug Pederson? Tomlin is it. Frankly, some of the game management decisions he makes are maddening. The end of last week’s game with the Ravens was a perfect example. Let me set the scenario for you:

1:02 to go in the 4th, 1st and 10 at the Ravens 30, the Steelers down two points. Baltimore has two timeouts left. The Steelers are in field goal range.

On first down, the Steelers ran up the middle for 2 yards, forcing Baltimore to take it’s second timeout. 56 seconds are left now. Considering that the average play runs about 5–6 seconds off the clock, if the Steelers just run again up the middle on second down, they force Baltimore into calling it’s last time out at probably around 50 seconds. Then they can run again on third down and Baltimore can’t stop the clock, so the clock would wind down to about 5 seconds left, just enough for Boswell to kick a field goal to end the game. This playcalling also gives the Steelers minimal risk of falling out of field goal range, and obviously the Ravens never get a chance to get the ball back to win.

So what did the Steelers actually do? Incomplete on second down, then incomplete again on third, with Ben pulling a miracle out of his butt not to take a sack and be knocked out of field goal range. Now I don’t know if Tomlin was involved in this playcalling, but the onus is on the head coach to be aware of game situations. This worked out for the Steelers in the end, but the fact of the matter is that they left more than enough time for the Ravens (who just happen to have the best kicker in the NFL) to kick a field goal, so you better believe Tomlin would have been excoriated if this blew up in his face.

Unfortunately, this example is more of the rule rather than the exception with Tomlin. Whether it’s inexplicable challenge decisions, incomprehensible 4th down decision making, or poor clock management, after eleven NFL seasons Tomlin is who he is, and game management is not his strength.

It also has hurt Tomlin that it seems like the Steelers have been outcoached in big games, specifically with the Patriots. It’s hard to argue that Tomlin deserves coach of the year when Belichick typically coaches circles around the Steelers. (To be fair though, Belichick usually coaches circles around everyone.)

Finally, Tomlin coached Steelers teams have had a long-term habit of playing down to worse teams. This season is no exception. One of the Steelers’ losses is to the Bears. Yes, the Bears. This leads people to believe that Tomlin is not doing a good enough job of getting his team ready to play every game, and it’s hard to argue that there isn’t some truth to that.

Verdict: If the Steelers put the Patriots in their rear view mirror and win 14 games, then you have to think Tomlin is going to get serious consideration. I would look for not only if they win but how they win against the Patriots. If Tomlin can be the coaching equal (or better) to Belichick in this game and the Steelers win, then give the man coach of the year. He deserves to finally be recognized.

Sean Payton- New Orleans Saints

Pros: As I stated earlier, the candidates for coach of the year are a mix of a Superbowl winning coaches having one of their best seasons and coaches pulling a cellar-dwelling team out of the gutter and into relevancy. With Sean Payton, you have both. Considering how difficult their division is, the Saints’ emergence this year is that much more impressive. I love the way Payton has transitioned the Saints into a running team- being able to adjust to accentuate your strengths is the sign of a great coach. He managed to get out of what was looking to be a toxic situation with Adrian Peterson with ease- you could make the case that trading Peterson was the NFL transaction of the year, considering that it led to the emergence of Alvin Kamara. Not only winning the toughest division in the NFL, but the way he did it, means Sean Payton deserves to be in the running for coach of the year.

Cons: I think Payton suffers from some of the same perception problems that Belichick suffers from, in that when he wins he should win because he has a great quarterback. He also has a little bit of a cantankerous personality, also like Bill. This could be the tiebreaker in the minds of the people who vote- fair or not, we all know there is human element to winning awards, and his infamous choke sign to the Falcons last week isn’t going to win him any goodwill. Lastly, he’s been around for so long that choosing him over more sexy choices like McVay seems unlikely.

Verdict: Despite a strong resume, showing coaching adaptability that led directly to his team’s success, and sporting quite possibly the most complete team of his tenure, I seriously doubt Sean Payton will be in the top three in voting. Even though it’s been his year, it’s just not his year.

Doug Marrone- Jacksonville Jaguars

Pros: The biggest out of nowhere candidate for coach of the year is Doug Marrone, simply because unlike Sean McVay, we’ve seen Marrone coach before this year and it wasn’t much to write home about. However, it turns out that Marrone was just what the Jaguars needed, and I love that he realized right away the strength and weaknesses of his team. Early in the year when Bortles was struggling immensely, Marrone answered the question as to how many times he’d like the Jags to throw the ball as zero. And in looking at the way he used Fornette early in the season, it seems that he was serious.

This is an example of a coach trying to change the culture of a losing team, and it worked. The Jaguars are the proverbial “team that nobody wants to play” going into the playoffs, due to their bruising style of offense and smothering defense. That strategy is a winning formula- there is a reason why “defense wins championships” is a thing. So a lot of credit should be given to Marrone for changing the ways of the losingest team in the NFL this decade. He was the right man for the job, and his philosophy was embraced by the team. He also had the most daunting challenge of any coach in the running, and the Jaguars seem to be getting better as the season concludes. In all, if the award were to be given right now, I would give the award to Marrone.

Cons: They don’t give out the coach of the year award now, and the reality is that by the end of the season, there are going to be coaches that will end up padding their resume a bit better than Marrone likely will.

There is also the perception that Marrone is just the extension of Tom Coughlin’s involvement with the team. While there is a little bit of truth to that, the whole truth is that Coughlin isn’t a coach. He isn’t involved in the day-to-day coaching of the team. It is not fair to consider Coughlin the de facto coach of the Jaguars, but I would not be surprised if that perception held weight. Finally, Jacksonville’s small market and still-mostly anonymous team will lead to Marrone to be overlooked. Fair or not, that’s the reality.

Verdict: Marrone deserves to win the award right now, but other coaches will likely clinch achievements that should outstrip Marrone of his accomplishments. However, if he can sneak the Jags into the top seed in the AFC, then there’s no way he can be ignored. Marrone would fully deserve the award.

So who is really going to win? I still say it’s McVay right now- but I’ve laid out a lot of different scenarios, so don’t be surprised if a coach you didn’t consider until now ends up winning instead. The one thing I am sure of is, whoever does end up winning will have earned it. This year’s race for coach of the year is perhaps the most competitive in the history of the NFL.