Kike Hernández has just been unlucky
By: Kyle Kizu
Tags: Dodgers, Los Angeles Dodgers, Baseball, MLB, Kike Hernandez

Dodgers announcers Joe Davis and Orel Hershiser caught on a few weeks ago. While his standard numbers don’t look great, Kike Hernández has just been unlucky this year.

A utility man for years, Hernández earned the starting second base job for the Dodgers in 2019. He was quickly slotted into the leadoff spot against lefties. And for his first 17 games, he slashed .316/.403/.596. But since then, it’s been all downhill. At 66 games, his slash line stands at .213/.280/.382.

At face value, that line is not good, especially for a starter. Against lefties, his slash is at a very respectable .261/.347/.455, but that means it’s abysmal against righties, which has led some to call for him to be benched against same-handed pitchers. Essentially, Hernández is at risk of falling back into his old role.

Rick Scuteri/USA TODAY Sports

But the conclusion that Davis and Hershiser came to a few weeks ago? That Hernández has just been unlucky? That he’s hit the ball hard, but just right at players or to the wrong spots of the field? Well, it tracks.

According to FanGraphs, Kike’s hard-hit percentage is not only up this year, but it’s up significantly. In 2017, his first year with over 250 at-bats, it was at 39.4%. Last year, arguably his breakout season, it was at 35.4%. This year, it’s at 47.9%, which places him at 17th in the league, ahead of big time players like Trevor Story, Rhys Hoskins, J.D. Martinez, Pete Alonso, Bryce Harper, Ronald Acuña Jr., Mike Trout and Javier Baez. It’s the third highest on the Dodgers, behind only Cody Bellinger (53.6%) and Justin Turner (50.5%). And midway through June in 2019, the league average sits at 37.8%, putting Hernández at just over 10% higher.

It’s not just against lefties, either. Kike does have a superb hard-hit rate of 54.9% against lefties, which ranks 4th amongst players with more than 75 plate appearances against southpaws, behind only Justin Turner, Christian Yelich and Cody Bellinger. But his rate of 42.9% against righties is above the 37.7% league average.

And in turn, his soft contact is down. Overall, it currently sits at 14.2%, more than 5% lower than last year. Against lefties, it’s dropped from 17.4% to 14.1%. Against righties? 21.7% to 14.3%.

Dennis Wierzbicki/USA TODAY

This all seems like a recipe for good results, if not better than last year. But luck hasn’t been on Kike’s side. Among the league’s top 25 in hard-hit percentage, Hernández has the lowest slugging percentage at .382, just below Miguel Cabrera’s .394. The next lowest is Wil Myers’ .419, and percentages quickly skyrocket after that. He also has the third lowest home run-to-fly ball ratio at 14.1%, behind only Justin Turner’s 9.5% and Miguel Cabrera’s 7.3%.

As far as other rates go, there’s not much that’s significantly alarming. Kike’s line drive percentage is about the same as last year. His ground ball rate is only slightly up and his fly ball rate is only slightly down. His popup rate is significantly down. And he’s using the middle and opposite side of the field more than he ever has as a semi-regular/regular player — up to 57.4% from last year’s 56.7%.

In fact, for the first time as a Dodger, he’s not pulling the ball against lefties more than he’s driving it up the middle or hitting it to the opposite field. As a Dodger, the lowest his pull rate against southpaws had previously gotten to was 42.5% in 2018 — with it reaching 49.4% in 2016. This year, it’s at 32.4%, with most of his hits going up the middle at 36.6% (and 31.0% going to the opposite field).

However, there is one place where Hernández is performing worse. His walk rate is down 2.8% from last year, while his strikeout rate is up 6.7%. That’s caused his strikeout-to-walk ratio to go from about 3:2 in 2018 to about 3:1 in 2019. And in concert with that, his chase rate is up just over 5% from 2018.

AP Photo/Chris O’Meara

But there’s another story within that. As compared to last year, Kike is seeing nearly 5% more first pitch strikes (64.4%, up from 59.7%). That’s 17th most in the majors, and the most on the Dodgers. But he’s also seeing, overall, 0.3% fewer pitches in the strike zone than he did last year. In essence, pitchers have devised a plan against him.

The league average of first pitch swinging is 29.6%, and the Dodgers’ average is 27.7% (Corey Seager leads the team at 42.6%). Hernández only swings at first pitches 25.6% of the time, barely up from last year’s 24.6%. So, in very general terms, why not start him out with a strike and then try to get him to chase? This year, he’s getting to far fewer 3–0, 2–0 and 3–1 counts, meaning that the pitchers’ plan to bully him and to get him down in the count early has been working.

But there are subtle signs, here and there, that Kike is adjusting in the face of such changes. His strikeout-looking percentage is down 4.1% from last year. His contact rate against pitches inside of the zone is almost exactly the same as it was last year, at 87.2% versus 87.3% in 2018. That ranks 61st in the majors and 2nd on the Dodgers, behind only Justin Turner (88.6%). And while he’s performing worse against fastballs and sliders, he’s improved significantly against curveballs, from a -0.5 rating to a 2.9 rating, according to FanGraphs.

Rob Tringali/Sportschrome

Hernández has also maintained his stellar fielding. According to FanGraphs, he has a positive 2.6 defensive rating. He has a total of 6 defensive runs saved, 5 at second base and 2 in center field, with one lost in right field (over a meager 4 innings played there). And his range ratings at both second base and center field have improved since last year, with his rating at second base currently at his best ever.

With the help of his defense, he’s accumulated an fWAR of 0.4. So, he’s better than your average replacement. And with some patience from both him and his organization, continued adjustment at the plate and a little bit of luck going his way, Kike Hernández could still make 2019 a special year.

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*All stats were pulled from FanGraphs.com and Baseball-Reference.com, and are dated at the end of the baseball day on 06/16/2019.