Democrats Thought Texas Was In Play In 2020. What Happened?
By: Jonathan Fuentes
Tags: Elections, Latinos, Biden, Trump, Texas

Photo by Adam Thomas on Unsplash

If you look back at the months and weeks leading up to the 2020 presidential election, the feeling was that the outcome would either be an outright drubbing of President Trump by former Vice President Joe Biden, or it would be a hotly contested nail biter.

Somehow, both scenarios came to fruition as now-President Elect Biden won several key states by relatively close margins, but took a 306 to 232 Electoral College win and easily won the popular vote by over 6 million ballots. Members of Trump’s own administration claimed a landslide victory when he won by the same electoral margin in 2016, despite losing the popular vote handily.

Those who thought the election could be sewn up early had their eyes fixated on a few key states that they felt the Biden campaign had put into play, despite being historically red. This proved to be true in some cases, as Georgia and Arizona, states that had not voted for a Democrat as president since 1992 and 1996, respectively, both went for Biden by less than one percent in each race.

Another state many had marked down as a potential flip was Texas, a state that has seen a recent shift in demographics and voter composition. With 38 electoral votes to give out, the second most in the country, making a play in Texas would mean the potential for a crushing victory early on election night.

This was not to be, however.

As the votes continued to roll in, it became apparent that President Trump would once again carry the Lone Star State in convincing fashion, the state not having gone blue since 1976.

What happened? Why did so many pundits believe that Texas was a potential battleground state?

Texas’ Changing Demographics

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Texas is the fastest growing state in terms of population, increasing by over 15% since the year 2000. While nearly half of this population increase was due to births in the state, the other half was thanks to a mix of domestic and international migration.

Looking at the migration trends into the state, it’s easy to see why Democrats believed they had a chance at victory in this presidential election.

In 2018, for every one white person who moved to Texas, nine Latino people relocated there as well, according to Census Bureau population estimates released in 2019. This dramatic unbalance in the migration numbers capped off a dramatic increase in the Latino population in Texas between the years 2000 and 2018, making up nearly 54% of the new migratory population during that time. During the same time period, there was just over a 15% increase in the Black population, a nearly 14% increase in White population, and about a 13% increase in the Asian population.

Thanks to this substantial difference in growth rates, the Latino population has gained considerable ground in the population percentage since the year 2000, when Latinos and Whites accounted for 38% and 45% of Texans respectively. Latino representation now stands at 40% compared to 42% of the White population.

With Latinos traditionally supporting Democratic candidates, it did not seem out of the realm of possibility to Democrats that they could pick up a win in Texas. They were especially confident in running against a president who had made numerous troubling remarks concerning race relations in the country and who had implemented immigration policies that were widely condemned as inhumane.

Election Results Disappoint

Voter turnout during this election set new records across the country, including in Texas, where well over 11 million ballots were cast, eclipsing the 8.5 million in the 2016 contest.

Biden was able to increase support from Black voters in the state, up from 84% in 2016 to 90% in 2020. He was also able to increase the Democrat’s share among White voters, up to 33% from 26% in the previous election. With these large percentage point pickups, Biden was able to narrow the percentage difference in the state results from 9% in 2016, down to 5.6% in 2020.

Latino voters, however, did not show up overwhelmingly in support of Biden, ensuring the race would not be competitive.

Exit polls show that approximately 23% of voters in Texas were Latino, with only 58% of those voters going for Biden, down 3% from 2016, while Trump was able to increase his support from 34% to 41%. This showing was a far cry from the overwhelming national average of 65% Latino support for the Democratic nominee.

In the four states with the largest Latino populations — California, Texas, Florida, New York — Biden secured higher than average support from Latinos in California (77%) and New York (72%), states he won easily. He underperformed in Texas (58%) and Florida (52%), losing both states by decisive margins.

Had Biden matched his national average with Latino voters in Texas, he would have received an additional nearly 207,000 votes based on exit poll percentages and current vote totals. Assuming almost all would have come at the expense of Trump, that would have been a swing of over 400,000 votes, leaving Biden within about 230,000 votes. While this number is quite large by itself, in comparison to the total state vote, it represents only about 2% of the vote, making the race much closer.

The other concern for Democrats in Texas is the fact that they were unable to get Latinos to come out and vote in the first place.

Again, exit polls show that 23% of the Texas electorate were Latinos in the election despite making up 30% of the eligible voters in the state. In contrast, White voters make up 51% of those eligible to vote, but accounted for 60% of those who cast a ballot. Black and Asian voters were within a percentage point of their eligible voter shares, at 12% and 3%, respectively.

It would seem that Democrats have a two-fold problem in Texas with Latino voters: they can’t get them to the polls effectively and when they do show up, they vote for Democrats at lower rates than they do nationally.

These have been ongoing problems in the state for Democrats. In 2016, Latinos only accounted for 24% of the vote despite making up a large portion of the overall population. Clinton received 61% of the Latino vote, as previously mentioned, below the national average for Latino support of 66%.

Turnout numbers were even worse in 2008, with Latinos only representing 20% of the electorate. While support for future-president Barack Obama was better than Biden’s and Clinton’s numbers at 63%, again it was lower than the 67% he received nationally.

So, why are Democrats failing to appeal to Latino voters in Texas while doing better overall nationally?

Texans Are More Concerned With The Economy

One area where Texas Latinos seemed to differ from others Latino voters nationally in 2020 was the importance they placed on the economy.

In exit polls, 39% of Latinos nationally stated that racial inequality was the most important issue in the country, with 28% choosing the economy. These proportions were basically reversed in Texas. There, 37% of Latino voters said the economy was their most important issue, opposed to the 25% who picked racial inequality.

Looking at the income levels of respondents in the same exit polls, there was also a significant difference to be found. Only 21% of Latinos made above $100,000 annually on a national level, whereas 32% hit the same financial mark in Texas. While those in Texas voted at a lower rate for President Trump than those nationally, 53% to 61% respectively, they also voted at almost exactly the same rate as voters of all races in the same financial group in Texas, 52%.

The difference in support was even more drastic in the $50,000 to $99,999 range. Nationally Biden received 74% of Latino votes in the category, but received only 53% of the same voting group among Texas Latinos.

Adding the two financial groups together, Latino voters making above $50,000 in Texas split evenly at 49% support for each candidate, where nationally the same group went for Biden at a rate of 63%.

Given the importance of the economic state of the country to Texas voters, President Trump’s campaign efforts in associating Biden with more progressive economic ideals and equating them to socialist and communist policies seem to have been effective in preventing more support from Latinos in the state.

Ethnicity Is Not Necessarily Identity

With the number of potential Latino voters now equaling, and surpassing, the number of potential Black voters in the country, understanding the Latino community has become more important than ever for political operatives.

There is the risk, however, of seeing Latino voters as a single group with universal ideals. While categorized as a single group, there is a significant amount of division within the Latino community concerning their identity.

According to data from the Pew Research Center 2015 National Survey of Latinos, self-identified Latinos as a whole were more likely to describe themselves as their country of origin/heritage (50%) as opposed to Latino/Hispanic (23%) or American (23%). This is especially true of foreign-born respondents who would describe themselves by their birth nationality at a rate of 65%.

So, while they are viewed as a singular ethnic group, Latinos tend to divide themselves up internally, choosing to identify as Mexican, Puerto Rican, Cuban, or any one of many other countries represented in the Latino community, more often than not.

There is a considerable shift in these proportions when asking the same of only second or third generations and beyond.

Second-generation Latinos in the study were just as likely to describe themselves as American as their nationality (each 36%) instead of Latino/Hispanic (24%). Third or higher generations would call themselves American well over half of the time (56%), while only 26% said they would go by their nation of heritage.

These statistics are especially important in a state like Texas, which has a long history of having a well-established Latino population.

Many Latinos in the state can trace their American citizenship to the mid-1800s, when Texas was ceded by Mexico and received statehood, their ancestors in the state becoming Americans by extension. According to the 2018 American Community Survey from the Census Bureau, it was estimated that almost 34% of Texans at the time were Latinos with Mexican heritage, making up approximately 85% of the Latino population in the state.

Democrats Have Themselves To Blame

Unfortunately for Democrats who are trying to gain a foothold in the state, trying to court the Latino in vote in Texas seems to be paradoxical.

How do you appeal to voters who see themselves as Latinos, but more specifically what country or heritage their family is from originally, and tend to identify themselves more as American over time?

This struggle can be clearly seen in exit poll responses concerning ideology. On a national level, 28% of Latino voters said they considered themselves to hold conservative views, while that number was 37% in Texas. Conservative Latinos in Texas also voted at a much higher rate for President Trump than their national counterparts, 80% to 68%, respectively.

While Latinos have steadily increased their share of the population, both nationally and in Texas, Democrats have been criticized for their lack of Latino leaders representing the party.

One such criticism came during the Democratic National Convention earlier this year. While a handful of Latinos took part in the event, they were limited in their exposure to audiences.

Julian Castro, the former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development under President Obama and the only Latino to run for president in this election cycle, spoke only at a smaller part of the convention and did not feature in primetime coverage.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a Latina New York Congresswoman who has become one of the most recognizable members of Democratic Party thanks to her outspoken nature and presence on social media, was given only 60 seconds to speak at the convention. Her speaking time also served as an introduction of Senator Bernie Sanders, a significantly older, White member of the party.

In contrast, the Republican Party has prominently featured Senators Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz from Florida and Texas, respectively. Both of Cuban descent, Rubio and Cruz each ran for president in the 2016 election cycle, with Cruz finishing as runner-up. Cruz spoke at that year’s Republican National Convention for over 20 minutes during primetime.

It would appear that the Republican Party has been more effective in their representation of Latinos in the party, reflecting in the Latino voter demographics in Texas.

All Hope Is Not Lost

While the GOP was able to keep the state red in this election, Democrats continue to see Texas as a potential battleground state going forward.

One of the key factors in this thinking is the age of the Latino population in Texas. According to a 2019 report by the Texas Demographic Center, it’s estimated that nearly 42% of Latino Texans are 24 years old or younger. This is significant for Democrats, as exit polls showed that eligible Latino voters aged 18 to 24 voted for President-elect Biden at a rate of 84%.

Democrats believe that they have the opportunity to wrestle away a major Republican stronghold and gain a significant advantage in the Electoral College for future elections.

Whether they are able to accomplish this feat will be almost entirely based on their ability to continue appealing to younger Latino voters and expanding the party and its influence within the state.