Should the Nationals Trade Juan Soto?
By: Hayden Higgins
Tags: Sports, Baseball, Washington Nationals, Washington DC, MLB

Update 2/22/21: The Nationals broadly followed this formula, adding Kyle Schwarber and Josh Bell to bolster the middle of the lineup, both moves I like. Jon Lester was added to the rotation and Brad Hand is here to close. The team remains broadly excellent in its top half and mediocre in its bottom half.

Didn’t the Nationals win the last legit World Series? Isn’t our team still in the middle of a franchise-altering mini-dynasty that began when Stephen Strasburg first blessed our mound?

Kind-of, to number one. Maybe not, to number two.

Our stars still shine brightly, starting with young Juan Soto. He is a superstar. He is still impossibly young and, at 22, could have another gear. If he repeats this year’s performance he will squarely be regarded as the game’s second-best hitter, and — even though he will never add much in the field or on the base — the likeliest candidate to eclipse its premier batsman as he ages.

We’re talking, of course, about Mike Trout, who like Soto excelled on the field from at an incredibly young age. Soto won a championship in his second full season, but Trout — despite charting a Hall of Fame has still spent scarce time in the postseason as the Angels have struggled to field a competent team around him.

Perhaps the foremost challenge to the Angels’ front office these past few years is the gargantuan contract given to Albert Pujols, a first-ballot Hall of Famer who turned into a pumpkin as soon as he arrived in Anaheim. The overwhelming narrative is that the Angels, who have been to the postseason once in the past ten years, have wasted Mike Trout.

Juan Soto will never have that kind of legacy with the Nationals because of what they’ve already accomplished together. The specter of a championship-less career has already been vanquished.

If you look closely, though, the next few years look much more precarious than they did two years ago, when the team appeared to be rounding into a peak-level dynasty with surprising sustainability.

This starts with the front office’s decision to pay Stephen Strasburg instead of Anthony Rendon last winter. (Assuming you accept their premise that they couldn’t afford both.) Strasburg missed basically the whole season with a mysterious carpal tunnel injury, while Rendon mashed as the new third baseman for Trout’s Angels, ironically. Hindsight is 20/20, but the rule of thumb is that pitchers are riskier than hitters. The Nationals may have been sentimental about Strasburg, or dazzled by his 2019 World Series mastery, or drunk with the possibility of running out an elusive three-ace staff — and the decision may yet pay off. But there is a significant chance — not even a majority chance, just a significant one — Strasburg becomes the Nationals’ Pujols, a $35M deadweight that hampers contention every year.

The Nationals have other championship-caliber players, but each brings concerns:

Max Scherzer is 36 years old, with over 2300 innings on his arm. He was still great but no longer elite last year, and you can assume that trend line will continue. He is a free agent after next year.

is 36 years old, with over 2300 innings on his arm. He was still great but no longer elite last year, and you can assume that trend line will continue. He is a free agent after next year. Patrick Corbin ’s strikeouts took a step back, and overall was good rather than great (4.17 FIP). He gets $23M annually through 2024.

’s strikeouts took a step back, and overall was good rather than great (4.17 FIP). He gets $23M annually through 2024. Trea Turner had an incredible season last year, but it wasn’t nearly enough to drag the team to the playoffs. He hit for greater power than ever, looking like a 30/30 threat for the first time; is that real? He is in his arbitration years and is a free agent in 2023.

Even if they have question marks, these guys are — again — championship-caliber. They’re potential All-Stars year-in and year-out.

The problem is the rest of the team. The rest of the Nationals are either young players who haven’t proven they belong on a championship roster, or veterans whose best days are surely behind them. The veterans are mostly on short-term contracts and are relatively fungible, as is the entire bullpen.

After Strasburg, Scherzer, and Corbin, Erick Fedde and Joe Ross are not scaring anyone. It’s the beginning of the offseason, but RosterResource currently lists Starlin Castro as the team’s cleanup hitter. Even if Starlin is on his way to 3,000 hits, he’s not that good; his on-base percentage was .306 last year. Andrew Stevenson is listed as leading off; despite a great 2020 season, he’s probably a fourth outfielder. Jake Noll (who?) plays first base.

It’s the ex-prospects who present the biggest challenge, mainly Carter Kieboom and Victor Robles.

Kieboom has flopped every time he’s reached the majors, but he was a top-25 prospect who brought high expectations — some thought Turner should be preemptively moved to center to clear the way for him. That hasn’t been necessary, because even Kieboom’s carrying hit/power tool has not proven major-league ready. The Nats have possibly made things worse by trying him out all around the infield, and it’s anyone’s guess now whether he is a long-term second-baseman, shortstop or third-baseman.

Robles, on the other hand, can clearly cut it on a championship roster; he was there in 2019. But he did that as a speed-and-defense center fielder, a bit in the mold of Kevin Kiermaier or Jackie Bradley, Jr. What we were promised (or at least dreamed on when he was a top-5 prospect) was something more like a peak Grady Sizemore — someone who could hit in addition to running and fielding. That has never materialized, and while he is still young — at 23, some of his peers are in single-A — he was 35% worse than league average at the dish last year.

Elsewhere on the roster, Luis Garcia impressed in a 2020 debut but is probably ticketed back to AAA; he’s still just 20 years old. His permanent arrival could solve one of second/third base, but Kieboom is the more pressing issue. Their only other prospect of note close to the majors, Will Crowe, is a 26-year-old who carried an ERA over 6 in AAA in 2019.

I’ll address my provocative headline now and say no, the Nationals shouldn’t trade Juan Soto. It’s at least a year too early to consider it. But if they aren’t careful, if they wait too long to decide what they have in Kieboom, especially, or to jettison hopes that their three aces return to 2020 peak form, they could find themselves quite stuck, with $50M+ tied up in just two starting pitchers and no hitters of note beyond Soto remaining after Turner becomes a free agent in 2023.

That leaves just two years for the Nationals’ most obvious window. If Strasburg returns to something like full health, it will be open, hellish as the NL East will be. Soto will never stop hitting.

But the Nationals face headwinds. The NL East is not as hospitable as it once was. The Atlanta Braves just made it to the NLCS on the backs of superstar performances from Max Fried, Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna, and Ozzie Albies. The Miami Marlins rode surprisingly good starting pitching to a wild card performance. And the Philadelphia Phillies are fronted by ex-Nat Bryce Harper and Cy Young candidate Aaron Nola; they may at least may lose JT Realmuto, the best catcher in baseball, but that’s little solace to the Nationals if, as expected, he is pursued by the Mets and their new, deep-pocked owner Steve Cohen, who’s reportedly eager to flex his financial muscle by adding one or more of this offseason’s premier free agents to a team already featuring the game’s best pitcher and a ferocious lineup that could receive a boost if, as expected, the NL institutes a permanent DH.

The task, then, is ascertaining how to work this offseason. Here are a few suggestions:

Get a middle-of-the-order bat to protect Juan Soto — looking in the outfield first. George Springer is the best hitter available. However, someone else is going to pay him more to play center field — hello, Mets —whereas the Nats aren’t going to push Robles out of center. Marcell Ozuna finally hit to a level that matched his underlying Statcast numbers last year, and could be a monster addition. But I might actually prefer a more understated option: Michael Brantley is available for much less money, possibly on a two-year pact that matches the Nats’ presumed window. His profile might match Soto’s too closely — definitely a corner outfielder, and left-handed. Other outfield options may include Joc Pederson (lefty platoon masher; probably mismatched for the Nats, who don’t have an obvious righty platoon partner), Shin-Soo Choo (would hurt the outfield defense, but remains a solid bat), and Ryan Braun.

is the best hitter available. However, someone else is going to pay him more to play center field — hello, Mets —whereas the Nats aren’t going to push Robles out of center. finally hit to a level that matched his underlying Statcast numbers last year, and could be a monster addition. But I might actually prefer a more understated option: is available for much less money, possibly on a two-year pact that matches the Nats’ presumed window. His profile might match Soto’s too closely — definitely a corner outfielder, and left-handed. Other outfield options may include (lefty platoon masher; probably mismatched for the Nats, who don’t have an obvious righty platoon partner), (would hurt the outfield defense, but remains a solid bat), and Veteran upgrades on the dirt. In the infield, the Nats have two priorities. First, if they can’t land one of those premier outfield bats, they should make good-faith efforts to pull either DJ LeMahieu or Justin Turner away from the Yankees and Dodgers, respectively. Both of these players are favored to return to their previous teams, but could be plugged in at third base, taking some pressure off Kieboom, while also hitting at the top of the lineup. (LeMahieu could be better at second, but Kieboom/Castro could handle third.) Other 2B/3B types worth a look include Tommy La Stella, Cesar Hernandez, Jonathan Schoop and Brad Miller, all of whom hit well over the last two years, and bounce-back bets like Jake Lamb . If the team is worried about infield defense — and there’s a chance they should be —call Kolten Wong. Second, Jake Noll probably shouldn’t be the team’s only option at first base. Most of the infielders mentioned so far could play first, but you could also see adding Carlos Santana , a decline-phase first baseman who nonetheless figures to get on base at a high clip. CJ Cron (or, in a trade, his brother Kevin Cron ) could also work. I’m not betting on the Jurickson Profar breakout finally arriving, but he can play anywhere — though the Nats already snagged Josh Harrison as a utility player.

In the infield, the Nats have two priorities. First, if they can’t land one of those premier outfield bats, they should make good-faith efforts to pull either or away from the Yankees and Dodgers, respectively. Both of these players are favored to return to their previous teams, but could be plugged in at third base, taking some pressure off Kieboom, while also hitting at the top of the lineup. (LeMahieu could be better at second, but Kieboom/Castro could handle third.) Other 2B/3B types worth a look include and all of whom hit well over the last two years, and bounce-back bets like . If the team is worried about infield defense — and there’s a chance they should be —call Second, Jake Noll probably shouldn’t be the team’s only option at first base. Most of the infielders mentioned so far could play first, but you could also see adding , a decline-phase first baseman who nonetheless figures to get on base at a high clip. (or, in a trade, his brother ) could also work. I’m not betting on the breakout finally arriving, but he can play anywhere — though the Nats already snagged as a utility player. Add one starting pitcher with some middle-of-rotation potential… MLB Trade Rumors recently suggested Charlie Morton could go to the Mets for 1 year/$8M. The Nationals would do well to beat that; Morton could represent a two-win upgrade by pushing Fedde or Ross out of the rotation. I wouldn’t even mind giving him two years if he were interested. Garrett Richards is another. Corey Kluber , who missed 2020 after being hit by a comebacker, is a riskier play with a similar profile — he’ll most likely take a short, expensive deal, with top-of-rotation upside. Rich Hill is another older pitcher who will be available on a one-year deal who brings a recent track record of excellence, but also injury. Masahiro Tanaka probably costs too much, but if the team feels like it has money to spend over a longer period, Jake Odorizzi, Jose Quintana, and Taijuan Walker make sense as possible starters , though I wouldn’t bet my shorts on any of them delivering value over more than two years. Mike Minor and Alex Wood are lefties who could provide value if 2020 was a short-sample aberration and they return to 2019 form. Anthony DeSclafani and Rick Porcello could also be fits.

MLB Trade Rumors recently suggested could go to the Mets for 1 year/$8M. The Nationals would do well to beat that; Morton could represent a two-win upgrade by pushing Fedde or Ross out of the rotation. I wouldn’t even mind giving him two years if he were interested. is another. , who missed 2020 after being hit by a comebacker, is a riskier play with a similar profile — he’ll most likely take a short, expensive deal, with top-of-rotation upside. is another older pitcher who will be available on a one-year deal who brings a recent track record of excellence, but also injury. probably costs too much, but if the team feels like it has money to spend over a longer period, and make sense as possible starters though I wouldn’t bet my shorts on any of them delivering value over more than two years. and are lefties who could provide value if 2020 was a short-sample aberration and they return to 2019 form. and could also be fits. …and a swingman or two for depth and long relief. Let’s think about ex-starters: Drew Smyly added tons of velocity and pitched very well last year. Brad Peacock, Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill continue to be really good for like 60 innings a year. Does anyone know how to fix Tyler Chatwood? Is Collin McHugh on his way back?

The biggest problem with all this dreaming: the Nats may not have all that much to spend. At FanGraphs, Craig Edwards suggested that the Nationals will carry about a $170 million payroll in 2021, leaving the team with about $25 million to spend this offseason.

That’s not a lot; the average annual value for any of the top-tier free agents could come in above $20M. Just as a practice run, consider what the following would do for this team:

Sign Michael Brantley, 2 years/$28M

Sign Garrett Richards, 2 years/$15M

Sign Carlos Santana, 1 year/$6M

Sign Trevor Cahill, 1 year/$1M

Sign Jonathan Schoop, 2 years/$4M

That would cost $24M, and leave the team looking something like this:

Lineup

SS Trea Turner (R)

RF Juan Soto (L)

1B Carlos Santana (S)

LF Michael Brantley (L)

C Yan Gomes (R)

2B Jonathan Schoop/Starlin Castro (R)

3B Carter Kieboom (R)

CF Victor Robles (R)

SP: Strasburg, Scherzer, Corbin, Richards, Ross (Fedde, Voth)

That lineup is still not especially good; it falls off a cliff after the first 4 batters, and that’s betting on a return to form from the aging Santana. Moreover, the bullpen is still fairly bad. This is why some pundits have suggested the Nationals should refrain from bigger-ticket deals and try to plug their holes with vets on short contracts around the diamond.

You can play with this approach any number of ways. You could pencil in Justin Turner instead of Michael Brantley here. Maybe you splurge for Ozuna at something like 4 years/$72M, only $4M higher in 2021 outlay than Brantley, and pull back from Richards to someone like Chris Archer. Or maybe you go the total other direction and try to spread the money around even more, making a nominal OF move like re-signing Adam Eaton and then using that Brantley money towards another SP and RP.

Could they free up payroll to make more additions? The most obvious candidates are in the bullpen — Harris ($8M) and Hudson ($6M) are not especially good, but they probably the Nats first and third-best relievers in a thin, untested bullpen.

What about the trade market? Though the Nats don’t have that many chips to move, it might be the only way to further improve without spending more money. What if we could pry CJ Cron from the Tigers, Joey Gallo from the Rangers, Trey Mancini from the Orioles, Hunter Renfroe, Yandy Diaz, Ji-Man Choi or Nate Lowe from the Rays, Austin Slater, Brandon Belt or Wilmer Flores from the Giants, Eddie Rosario from the Twins, Josh Rojas from the Diamondbacks…

We’ll talk about that again when the Winter Meetings arrive. For now, it’s enough to say that Nats fans shouldn’t rest easy. We’re not just no longer reigning World Series champs; we’re under the gun to keep our dynasty alive.