Week 16 Picks
Tags: Football Betting, Football Picks, Football, NFL

Total: 8–7–1

Cumulative total: 38–36–5

With an absurd 3 ties, last week was full up surprises, and I ended up eeking out a winning record and making good on my promise. Hopefully we can keep it up or even improve on Christmas weekend, which features sixteen unusually timed games, with play happening on Friday and Saturday — an exciting way to spend some of this much needed Winter break! I feel really good about the picks this week: let’s see how it goes.

Vikings @ Saints 4:30 Est. Fri.

Despite being only two games underneath .500, the Vikings just haven’t looked right this year. Compared to the Saints, who are coming off a motivating loss to Kansas City and should have Drew Brees one week closer to looking like his normal self, the Vikings don’t seem like they can keep it close in New Orleans.

Pick: Saints -7 ✅

Buccaneers @ Lions 1:00 Est. Sat.

Say what you want about Tom Brady and Tampa Bay, they’ve been able to handle business quite effectively against inferior teams this year. With the exception of last week’s divisional matchup against Atlanta, Tampa has pretty much blown out every bad team that they hit this year. So, I feel pretty confident they can play at least as well as the Titans against Detroit did in Week 15. By the way, that game ended with a 20+ point blowout.

Pick: Buccaneers -10 ✅

49ers @ Cardinals 4:30 Est. Sat.

Five points seems like too little of a spread in a game in Arizona between a playoff contender and a team with only five wins. Even though this is a divisional matchup, an injured San Francisco team on their second or third string quarterback doesn’t look like it can hang with Kyler Murray and Deandre Hopkins.

Pick: Cardinals -5 🅇

Dolphins @ Raiders 8:15 Est. Sat.

After starting the season looking like a real sleeper team in the AFC, the Raiders have lost a number of games and look awful. Meanwhile, the Dolphins just bested Bill Belichick, Tua looks amazing, and they have a real shot at a playoff spot this year. I think that Miami goes into Vegas and comes out with a big win.

Pick: Dolphins -3 🅇

Falcons @ Chiefs 1:00 Est. Sun.

The Chiefs will not lose to the 4–10 Falcons, especially at Arrowhead with a first round bye there for the taking with the W. But, I don’t think that they can cover 10.5 points, simply because I expect a shootout rather than a blowout. The Falcons clearly can’t stop Patrick Mahomes and the prolific KC offense, but the Chiefs defense hasn’t looked great this year and Calvin Ridley and Matt Ryan have scored a lot of points this year. I think Atlanta can keep it close enough to stay within a touchdown plus a field goal.

Pick: Falcons +10.5 ✅

Browns @ Jets 1:00 Est. Sun.

Ironically, New York simply cannot afford to win this game and all but sign away the rights to Trevor Lawrence. On the other side, the red hot Browns would love to have this one so they can potentially compete for the division in week 17. I think that the game against the Rams represents a massive fluke, and Baker Mayfield tears up the Jets

Pick: Browns -9 🅇

Colts @ Steelers 1:00 Est. Sun.

Yes, Pittsburgh is on a three game losing streak. Still, having an eleven win team as an underdog at home just doesn’t feel right. I have faith in Mike Tomlin to make things right, and a four game skid just seems untenable for a team that started out so hot, especially when the AFC North title is very much on the line.

Pick: Steelers +1.5 ✅

Bears @ Jaguars 1:00 Est. Sun.

Chicago really burned me last week when I placed a lot of faith in the Vikings. I think that I really need to reevaluate my understanding of a team that has seven wins, including an one against Tampa Bay. In a game that has any Jacksonville fan pulling for a loss, I think the Bears win by a TD or more.

Pick: Bears -7.5 ✅

Giants @ Ravens 1:00 Est. Sun.

The Ravens turned it around this season after looking like they were going to miss the postseason. The Giants have exactly one win against a team with a winning record, and though beating the Seahawks seemed like an auspicious sign, New York promptly lost its next two games and revealed that they are in fact among the worst teams in the league. Especially in an away game where the Giants don’t have a fully healthy Daniel Jones, I think the Ravens put together a statement win.

Pick: Ravens -10 ✅

Bengals @ Texans 1:00 Est. Sun.

I keep thinking the Texans are much better than their record, and unfortunately, they keep proving me wrong. I think that ultimately, the Texans are basically a four win team, but guess what? The Bengals without Joe Burrow are a one win team. It might not be a perfect comparison, but ultimately, this Cincinnati team doesn’t seem like it can keep it close with Deshaun Watson in Houston.

Pick: Texans -7 🅇

Broncos @ Chargers 4:05 Est. Sun.

Two teams with identical records could not be more different. The Chargers routinely have close games where Justin Herbert shines, while the Broncos continually get blown out and sometimes show up to games without a quarterback. Cold weather teams generally don’t do great in places like LA in December, and I think the Chargers win by a field goal.

Pick: Chargers -3 =

Panthers @ Football Team 4:05 Est. Sun.

As shocking as it is that an NFC East team is favored in any game, Washington has a scary front four and looks like it could get Alex Smith back this week. Compared to the Panthers, who have two less wins than the Football Team, I think Washington can pull out the win in this game, and 2.5 points should be easy to cover.

Pick: Football Team -2.5 🅇

Eagles @ Cowboys 4:25 Est. Sun.

Who would have thought that this matchup would feature the two teams in the NFC East that didn’t have a shot at the division crown. Ultimately, even in Dallas, I think that a surging Jalen Hurts can get it done against the awful Cowboys so far removed from starting an NFL caliber quarterback.

Pick: Eagles -2.5 🅇

Rams @ Seahawks 4:25 Est. Sun.

This matchup is basically a pick’em game, with a one point spread, and it’s basically a playoff game with massive ramifications for the NFC West title. With those conditions and the game being in Seattle, I just trust Russell Wilson and the battle-tested Seahawks a little bit more that Jared Goff and LA.

Pick: Seahawks -1 ✅

Titans @ Packers 8:20 Est. Sun.

This game should be super exciting to watch, with Derrick Henry and the smashmouth-Titans facing off against an incredible passing attack spearheaded by Aaron Rodgers. Even though the Titans do rely on the run, I don’t think that they will be as good on the frozen tundra as Green Bay. The Packers should pull out a win, and probably by a little bit more than a field goal.

Pick: Packers -3.5 ✅

Bills @ Patriots 8:15 Est. Mon.

Buffalo will probably win on Monday night, but honestly I’m not too confident in their ability to do that against Bill Belichick, much less by a touchdown. Outside of an unlucky fumble by Cam Newton, New England consistently has had Buffalo’s number, and I think that in a home game they keep it close by grinding it out on the ground and on defense.

Pick: Patriots +7 🅇