Saturday NFL Triple Header Picks & Plays!
By: Zack Nicol
Tags: NFL, Football, Gambling, Fun, Daily Fantasy Sports

1:00 PM ET

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-9.5) vs DETROIT LIONS ; O/U 54.5

Model Z Projection: 32–19 TB

Straight Up Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Spread Pick: TB -9.5⭐

O/U Pick: Under 54.5⭐

Zack’s Plays:

- Leonard Fournette to score / TB to win DOUBLE (-105)

- Mike Evans over 58.5 Rec. Yards (-110)

- Mike Evans to score / TB to win DOUBLE (+130)

- Mike Evans to score 2x (+500)

- Antonio Brown to score / TB to win DOUBLE (+170)

- Tom Brady NO INT’s (+100)

Top DFS Matchups: Leonard Fournette ($5,500), Mike Evans ($6,100)

Notable Inactives: TB CB1 Carlton Davis, TB RB1 Ronald Jones

Notes: Alright, it’s time that I finally admit that this Tampa team is not as good as I thought. Yes, they had a nice comeback win over Atlanta last week, but they got down big early and there is definitely some concern. I like Fournette most weeks because of opportunity (again this week), but you can just tell that he doesn’t have that explosiveness that he once had. Now, Detroit is starting to freefall losing two in a row and now officially eliminated from the playoffs. Tampa on the other hand have won two in a row and have this [what should be] easy game then another [what should be] easy game against the Falcons to head into the playoffs. This is a large spread so let’s check on how Detroit matches up against the Buc’s strength, the passing game. Detroit lands at 25th vQB in the model, they’re 27th in pass yards allowed and 29th in pass TDs allowed. Ouch. And they’re even worse against the run. It’s a big number, but I can’t back the Lions here. I am a little concerned about TB CB1 Carlton Davis being out, but not enough to sway my pick. Very low confidence though.

I quickly want to go over the receiver situation in Tampa because I was curious myself.

Targets: Evans then Brown then Godwin. All very close

Red Zone: Used to be all Evans, but recently it’s Brown

Snaps: Godwin then Evans then a big drop to AB

Air Yards: Evans then a big drop to Godwin then AB

Actual Production: All about the same really, but no consistency. It’s unpredictable like it was in New England.

4:30 PM ET

SAN FRANCISCO 49ers vs ARIZONA CARDINALS (-5.5) ; O/U 48.5

Model Z Projection: 25–24 ARI

Straight Up Pick: Arizona Cardinals

Spread Pick: SF +5.5⭐

O/U Pick: Over 48.5⭐

Zack’s Plays:

- Juszczyk to score (+800)

- Kittle Over 4.5 Receptions (-110)

- Murray over 37.5 Longest Pass (-110)

- Hopkins over 25.5 Longest Reception (-110)

- Kyler Murray to throw INT (+102)

Top DFS Matchups: SF RB Jeff Wilson ($5,000), SF FB Kyle Juszczyk ($4,000), Kyler Murray ($7,500)

Notable Inactives: SF QB1 Nick Mullens, SF S Jimmy Ward, SF DL Dion Jordan, SF WR1 Deebo Samuel, SF RB1 Raheem Mostert

Notes: Maaaan I had this whole write up all set for the upset here, but the injury to SF S Jimmy Ward completely shifts my confidence and shifted the Model Z pick. I’ll still take the Niners getting points, but have to think about the outright winner. I’ll show you what I said anyways because most is still accurate…

“These next two games are much tougher. This NFC West game actually projects a different favorite in the Model Z, so I’m already leaning towards taking the points. Similar to yesterday’s game with the Texans, I think the public looks at this game and only sees CJ Beathard vs Kyler Murray. I get it, it’s the most important position on the field but there is so much more to the game of football than just the quarterback. If you have a bad QB that throws a ton of picks, yes, it’s detrimental. But most of these backup qb’s that step into the role are more game managers that play it safe which is what you want. The Niners are the better overall team believe it or not. Better offensive line, defensive line, linebackers and secondary. The QB obviously goes to Kyler and so does the receiving core. But guess who is back this week. SF TE George Kittle. Dude is a beast and apparently “looks 100% healthy”. Here is the problem: The Niners are eliminated and the Cardinals are fighting for their playoff lives. When it’s a division matchup and the playoffs are on the line though, that doesn’t matter. The Niners would love to spoil the Cards hopes, so I’ll take the Niners here because they’re the better overall team. Get a better defensive and offensive line Arizona, then we can talk.

Fun fact: the Niners have 13 players that are in the top 20 of their position on PFF…the Cardinals have 4. Not a huge deal, but that’s saying something.”

8:15 PM ET

MIAMI DOLPHINS (-3) vs LAS VEGAS RAIDERS ; O/U 47.5

Model Z Projection: 25–25 TIE

Straight Up Pick: Miami Dolphins

Spread Pick: MIA -3⭐⭐

O/U Pick: Under 47.5⭐

Zack’s Plays:

- Gesicki over 36.5 Rec. Yards (-110)

- Gesicki to score (+200)

- Parker over 46.5 Rec. Yards (-110)

- Parker to score (+230)

- Josh Jacobs over 67.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

- Josh Jacobs to score (-105)

Top DFS Matchups: Mike Gesicki ($4,400), Devante Parker ($5,500), Josh Jacobs ($6,600)

Notable Inactives: MIA DL Shaq Lawson, MIA RG Solomon Kindley, LV DL Clelin Ferrell, LV LB Nicholas Morrow, LV LB Nick Kwiatkoski, LV S Erik Harris

Notes: Just for fun, let’s start with how I ended the game above with a PFF top 20 comparison. Miami has 7 players in the top 20 (X Howard 1st at CB) and Vegas has 6. Pretty even there, no surprise. For the matchup, both teams are still playoff hopeful but are on the outside or the edge looking in currently. I’d be curious (too lazy to actually go look) to see how many times I’ve picked against these two teams because I bet it’s a bunch. As you frequent readers know, I don’t like the Raiders defense and I don’t think Tua is ready and doesn’t have a good shot to get ready because of their bad offensive line. There are elements of both teams that are nice like the Dolphins defense and the Raiders’ offense, but their weaknesses steer me away from them usually. Unfortunately, I have to pick one of them this week. Let’s think of it this way, if one of these teams were in the playoffs against let’s say the Browns or the Colts, which team would you have more confidence in? It’s close but I’m going with the Dolphins. The defense is good, Tua can manage a game (9:2 TD to INT Ratio). The real problem is the offensive line.

Back to this matchup though, I’ll take the Dolphins on the road with light confidence because of the Raiders injuries on defense. If I’m counting right, I think that’s 4 starters out this week and two of them are at the LB position. The offensive line problems for the Dolphins aren’t much of a problem if the defensive line and Linebackers can’t take advantage, and I the Raiders haven’t stopped anything even when healthy (25th in Yards allowed, 29th in Points allowed). Good thing the Dolphins receivers are back this week, because they have a good matchup against the 4th team worst vWR and 5th worst vTE. They also get Gaskin back so I’m excited to see him and Ahmed share the rock on the ground against backup linebackers.