Hawaii Bowl Betting Preview
Tags: Sportsbetting, Collegefootball

Opt outs and transfers have taken the shine off this game, but it’s Christmas Eve football and that’s awesome.

Hawaii Bowl

Memphis (6–6) vs Hawaii (6–7)

Friday, 8pm, ESPN

Memphis -8.5/Total 55.5

Head to FanDuel Sportsbook to take advantage of your $1,000 risk-free bet

With one more eligible bowl team than bowl slot, Hawaii ended up being the beneficiary as the Warriors were bumped up to bowl eligible at 6–7. They get to stay home and face Memphis who had a disappointing season by their standards. Memphis ended a 3–0 stretch to start the season with a win over Mississippi State, but the season went downhill quickly. The Tigers finished 3–6 and needed a win over Tulane in the season finale to get bowl eligible. Hawaii is bowl eligible by virtue of the rules shifting, a win over an FCS team and two wins over New Mexico State, one of the worst teams in FBS. Hawaii also beat a good Fresno State team and handled a solid Wyoming team so there were some positives for them as well.

Opt outs and transfers have put a damper on this game in some ways, but have also created a really neat storyline as well. Memphis’ best player, wide receiver Calvin Austin III, opted out of the game to get ready for the NFL Draft. Because Hawaii wasn’t expected to make a bowl game both quarterback Chevan Cordeiro and running back Dae Dae Hunter entered the transfer portal after the season. Brayden Schager will get the start for Hawaii and face an old opponent. The true freshman Schrager will face another true freshman quarterback in Seth Henigan. It’s the second time the two have gone head-to-head this calendar year. Henigan’s Denton Ryan beat Schager’s Highland Park 17–7 in the Texas high school football playoffs en route to a state championship.

The quarterback edge goes to Memphis because Henigan has been their starter all year throwing for over 3,300 yards with 25 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Schager started in Hawaii’s win against Fresno State in which he threw two touchdowns but only completed 40 percent of his passes and he struggled two weeks later against Nevada throwing four interceptions. Schrager hasn’t seen any game action since replacing Cordeiro late in a loss to Utah State on October 30th. It’s tough to know what to expect is going to happen offensively as Memphis is the better passing team and will be without its best weapon in the passing game and Hawaii is the better rushing team and will be without its top running back.

These are two teams that are also fairly defense optional. Hawaii is 89th in defensive efficiency and 91st in defensive SP+. Memphis is 91st in efficiency and 79th in defensive SP+. These are also two of the worst defensive teams in the country on third down. Hawaii is 119th in third down conversion percentage defense and Memphis ranks 126th. Hawaii does one thing well on defense, they force a lot of turnovers. They’re fifth in turnovers gained and 21st in defensive turnover rate. Memphis is a middle of the pack team when it comes to turnovers so there’s no big edge one way or another there.

With the opt outs and transfers it’s tough to make a call on a side here. I generally believe a 6–6 AAC team is better than a 6–6 (or 6–7) team from the other Group of Five leagues, but I don’t have a good feel either way. I will say that the over feels like a principle play. While some key offensive guys aren’t playing, these are two bad defensive teams and if you’re watching two mediocre teams play on Christmas Eve and don’t want to see a ton of points you’re a Scrooge and I don’t want to be your friend.