Shake Milton Can Unlock the 76ers’ Offense
By: Andrew Lawlor
Tags: Sports, Basketball, Sports Analytics, Data Visualization, NBA

The Philadelphia 76ers have not lived up to expectations this season. They were a popular pick to contend for the Eastern Conference title, but they currently languish in sixth place. The reason for their lack of success is a poor offense. Currently, Philadelphia ranks 17th in the NBA in offensive efficiency, averaging 110.4 points per 100 possessions, according to Basketball Reference. This is not going to cut it for a contender, and is a severely disappointing number given the talent on the roster. The main culprit is a lack of three-point shooting, which has cramped their spacing.

Philadelphia ranks 21st in the NBA in 3-point field goals per 100 possessions, with a figure of 31.8. They have been average at making three-pointers, with a team field goal percentage of 36.2%. But since the team does not take three-pointers at a high rate, opposing defenses pack the paint. This makes it hard for their interior threats to score.

The situation is even worse when Philadelphia plays Al Horford, Joel Embiid, and Ben Simmons together. This is a huge problem since they are the team’s three biggest stars and are all included in the usual starting lineup.

All three players thrive on the inside. Embiid and Simmons are poor outside shooters, and Simmons does not even take threes at all. These lineups feature strangled spacing, and have struggled. According to stats.nba.com, these lineups have scored a putrid 98.8 points per 100 possessions in 429 minutes.

Philadelphia has turned Horford into a three-point shooting specialist. This season, Horford’s three-point rate (the percentage of his field goal attempts that are from three-point range) is 40.4%, a career high. But this means that he is not getting the ball inside, where he is most effective. Horford is not getting fouled, demonstrated by his 11.2% free throw rate, a career low. Just 18.0% of his shots have come from within three feet, another career low. Horford has had a poor season by his standards. He is scoring, rebounding, and assisting less than usual. It is largely because of his transformed role.

The solution to the 76ers’ problems could already be present on their roster in Shake Milton. Milton is a second-year pro who the was drafted in the second round out of SMU in 2018. He has spent much of his career bouncing between the G-League and NBA. But he has played more this season, and Philadelphia has been experimenting with starting him at point guard in exhibition games prior to the restart.

Milton brings a real outside threat to the 76ers. 48.8% of Milton’s shots have come from behind the arc this season. Defenders have to stick to him outside. If they duck under screens, he will shoot and usually make it. This season, Milton has a three-point field-goal percentage of 45.3%. He has always hit a high rate of threes, having shot 42.3% from three-point range in three college seasons. Milton is one of the best and most prolific shooters on the 76ers’ roster.

On top of his shooting, Milton also contributes ball-handling and playmaking. He can run pick and rolls and make things happen with the ball. This separates him from Furkan Korkmaz and Matisse Thybulle, two of the other options to move into the starting lineup.

In Milton’s 611 minutes, the 76ers have scored 112.7 points per 100 possessions, a rate that would be tied for 6th in the NBA. This is a small sample size, and on/off court numbers for individual numbers can get funky, but it is very promising.

Moving Milton into the starting lineup in place of Al Horford can make both the bench lineup and starting lineup better. Defenses will have to stay attached to him outside, opening up spacing for the rest of the offense. He can handle the ball some of the time, taking pressure off Ben Simmons. When he does handle the ball, he can run pick and rolls with Embiid and Simmons, where defenders can not duck under picks. Simmons should excel as a roll man, which is not something he has had a lot of opportunities to do. Secondary options like Tobias Harris and Josh Richardson will have more room to operate.

Milton is not going to be a player who dominates the ball, but he will make good decisions with it. Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer compared him to George Hill in a video that was the inspiration for this post. He should take some of the ball-handling slack, but Simmons should still be the primary ball-handler. Simmons is an excellent playmaker, and is better at playmaking than Milton. Milton can take some of the stress off Simmons.

Meanwhile, Horford can get back to what he is best at, playing inside, without Embiid and Simmons clogging the paint. He will not have to hang out at the three-point arc so much. He can have long stretches where he is the offensive focal point from the elbow. He should still play a lot of minutes, as he is a very valuable player. But the 76ers will be better served by splitting up Embiid, Horford, and Simmons so only two of them play at once.

On March 1, Shake Milton gave the NBA a taste of what he could provide for the Sixers. He scored 39 points against the Clippers, going seven of nine from three-point range and contributing five assists. The team scored 130 points without Joel Embiid or Ben Simmons in the lineup. Milton will not always be that hot, but the threat of his shooting should open up their offense. Moving him into the starting lineup can help Philadelphia reach their potential.