Can California Begin To See The Light At The End Of The Tunnel?
By: Peter Cioth
Tags: Covid 19, San Francisco

For the past several weeks, California has joined much of the rest of the world in a state of quarantine due to the COVID-19 virus, also described as “shelter in place.” These measures were first passed by the six counties that comprise the San Francisco Bay Area, and then were imposed throughout the state by order of Governor Gavin Newsom. As all know by now, these measures have ended public events, shuttered all non-essential businesses, and in general ground life as people are accustomed to to a full halt.

This has required major adjustments to how people conduct what is left of their daily lives, trying to keep up some semblance of an organization and routine to their days. People used to the benefits of the mental and physical compartmentalization that comes with commuting every day from their home to their office now no longer have the ability to do so, forced to work from home and only keep in touch with their co-workers over videoconferencing platforms such as Zoom.

This has also been the only means by which families have had to stick together, especially during a time of the year that is normally full of family gatherings and gatherings of people in general. Some families have resorted to holding Passover and Easter gatherings over videoconference, recreating the feelings of togetherness and holiday spirit as best they can. But as good of a substitute for real gathering as that can sometimes be, they remain a substitute for the real thing nonetheless. Shelter in place and social distancing take their mental toll, not to mention an economic one as businesses close and workers are laid off. A hunger for any sign of hope or a light end of the tunnel is an overriding desire at a time like this.

Scanning the news every day, one looks for any sign that the trend in the spread of the virus is going in the right direction, the oft-discussed “flattening of the curve.” The most positive global news to date has come from places such as South Korea, whose response to the pandemic has been a model for success worldwide. This has been due to its well-established and thorough system of nationwide testing, one developed during previous experience dealing with outbreaks such as the MERS epidemic of 2012.

Other positive global news has come from Wuhan, China, the very place where the pandemic began. In response to the outbreak, the Chinese government imposed a total lockdown on the city, and that approach seems to have finally paid off. In early April of 2020, the lockdown on the city and province has been finally lifted, at least in some respect. People began to go back outside, and factories are beginning to resume production.

Although the United States is far behind other countries in how it has handled the response to the pandemic, the first positive signs are beginning to emerge in parts of the country that were more proactive in taking measures against the outbreak. One of the foremost examples of this has been the San Francisco Bay Area. The Bay Area counties’ early imposition of a “shelter in place” order has begun to pay dividends as the local curve begins to flatten.

San Francisco local government, led by Mayor London Breed, seems to have become been a model example for response to the pandemic. Initially, the Bay Area was on track to become the epicenter of the pandemic, but that has turned out not to be the case thanks to the well organized response measures put in place by local government.

The early shelter in place imposed by the six Bay Area counties has, by all available evidence, had the desired effect, or at least it is on track to do so. From potentially being the center of the epidemic, San Francisco now compares favorably to other American cities such as Boston, New Orleans, and especially New York City, which has now become the global epicenter of the pandemic.

The hope is that, with these positive signs in the viral curve taking place in the Bay Area, that some kind of relaxation of the shelter in place might be feasible at some point in the relatively near future. But there is still much uncertainty that would prevent that from being the case. San Francisco has still not been able to put as comprehensive a testing system in place as exists in New York, for example.

This lack of testing raises the possibility that the extent of actual cases in San Francisco is higher than the currently reported numbers, although epidemiologists have said that other factors make that unlikely (San Francisco’s hospitals have not been overwhelmed, for example). However, any kind of relaxation of the shelter in place would carry with it the same risks that face anywhere that has been relatively fortunate enough to do so thus far. When Singapore relaxed its travel ban and allowed citizens to return from abroad, for example, it caused a new wave of cases to hit the island city that had previously been a global model for handling coronavirus.

If any relaxation is to come for the Bay Area, it will certainly have to be slow and measured. It also likely will not come for several weeks, if not longer. However, recent comments from California governor Gavin Newsom suggest that a path to “some semblance of normalcy” is possible in the relatively near future thanks to the success of the state’s response to the pandemic.

The shelter in place has been a financial, mental and even physical hardship for the millions of people who have been living under it in this state, country and world for the past several years. But the Bay Area’s measures for dealing with the outbreak seem to be doing what they are supposed to. The return to normal is still a ways off, but the fact that it can even be discussed at this point is a sign of encouragement for us all.