Week 15 NFL Sunday Picks and Plays! Includes a $416,000 Round Robin too 😲
By: Zack Nicol
Tags: Fun, Football, Daily Fantasy Sports, NFL, Gambling

See below for my picks, plays, Model Z breakdown and explanation for Sunday’s Week 15 NFL Games. Check out the bottom of the article for my no-doubt-about-it $416,000 Round Robin 😈 As always, if the Round Robin somehow hits, anyone who “claps” at this article gets $10!

Please note that I am not advising anyone to participate in any gambling. I am simply telling you what I will be doing (legally in New Jersey).

Sunday, December 20th

1:00 PM ET

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-6.5) at ATLANTA FALCONS ; O/U 49.5

Model Z Projection: 31–20 TB

Straight Up Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Spread Pick: TB -6.5⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

O/U Pick: Under 49.5⭐

Zack’s Plays:

- Tom Brady Touchdowns Over 2.5 Passing TDs (+126)

- Fournette to score / TB to win DOUBLE (+170)

- Gronkowski to score / TB to win DOUBLE (+220)

- [2X BET] TB -6.5 (-110)

Top DFS Matchups: Tom Brady ($6,600), Leonard Fournette ($4,500), Antonio Brown ($5,400)

Notable Inactives: ATL CB1 Darqueze Dennard, ATL WR1 Julio Jones, ATL S Ricardo Allen, TB RB1* Ronald Jones, TB LT Donovan Smith

Notes: Are the Bucs true contenders even at 8–5? I still think so. 4 of those losses were against the Chiefs, Rams and the Saints twice. They get to finish with the Falcons twice and the Lions so I predict an 11–5 record that places them in a great spot going into the playoffs. I don’t think they win the division, but should get to avoid some of the better NFC teams in the Wild Card. The face the Falcons who are looking to play spoiler this week. They’ve lost 3 of their last 4 and will be without WR1 Julio Jones. I think this is one of those games where Brady just carves up a defense with quick passes against a secondary that gives up the 3rd most yards through the air and will be without their (arguably) best safety and CB1. Give me the Bucs giving points on the road with a ton of confidence. The model says this game should be double digits, watch out. Also, it’s a Tampa Bay game, so legally I have to mention Leonard Fournette and predict a good game. I mean c’mon, Ronald Jones is out.

Sunday, December 20th

1:00 PM ET

SAN FRANCISCO 49ers (-3.5) at DALLAS COWBOYS ; O/U 45.5

Model Z Projection: 25–22 SF

Straight Up Pick: San Francisco 49ers

Spread Pick: SF -3.5⭐⭐⭐

O/U Pick: Over 45.5⭐

Zack’s Plays:

- Aiyuk to score (+150)

- Aiyuk over 74.5 (-110)

- Aiyuk Over 6.5 Receptions (+116)

- SF -3.5 (-110)

- Juszczyk to score (+800)

- Dalton under 247.5 (-110)

Top DFS Matchups: Brandon Aiyuk ($6,300)

Notable Inactives: SF C Hroniss Grasu, SF TE1 George Kittle (not ready yet), SF QB Jimmy Garoppolo (not ready yet), SF WR1 Deebo Samuel

Notes: Well, Deebo Samuel is out for the 49ers which is pretty significant, but luckily they have rookie standout Brandon Aiyuk who has a great opportunity this week against the Cowboys who give up the 3rd most passing touchdowns (surprisingly the opposite with the 6th best in pass yards allowed). For the matchup, both teams are essentially eliminated from the playoffs unless mayhem happens. I believe in the Cowboys more than most I think, but I don’t think I can take them here. I think this Niners defense is going to beat up on this 31st ranked Cowboys Offensive Line and make it a long day for Andy Dalton. Offensively, I think they tear it up too, specifically on the ground against one of, if not the worst run defenses in the league. Unfortunately for DFS and Player Props, it’s tough to predict as Mostert and Hasty are an even split and even FB Juszczyk steals some TDs.

Sunday, December 20th

1:00 PM ET

DETROIT LIONS at TENNESSEE TITANS (-9.5) ; O/U 53.5

Model Z Projection: 33–23 TEN

Straight Up Pick: Tennessee Titans

Spread Pick: TEN -9.5⭐⭐⭐

O/U Pick: Over 53.5⭐

Zack’s Plays:

- TEN -9.5 (-110)

- TEN -13.5 Alternate Spread (+130)

- TEN Over 31.5 Total Points (-110)

- Corey Davis over 64.5 rec. yards (-110)

- Corey Davis to score / TEN to win DOUBLE (+155)

- Jonnu Smith to score / TEN to win DOUBLE (+230)

- Corey Davis to score 2x (+800)

- Jonnu Smith to score 2x (+1400)

- Jonnu Smith Over 2.5 Receptions (-110)

- Ryan Tannehill Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-152)

Top DFS Matchups: Derrick Henry ($9,500), Jonnu Smith ($3,700), Corey Davis ($5,800), AJ Brown ($7,600), Ryan Tannehill ($6,700)

Notable Inactives: Last time I’ll list DET WR Kenny Golladay on this list becuase I’m tired of writing his name. DET C Frank Ragnow, DET RT Tyrell Crosby, DET CB3 Daryl Roberts, DET DE Da’Shawn Hand

Notes: It’s just way too many injuries on an already bad team in my opinion to even think about the Lions in this spot. The Titans are tied with the Colts at 9–4 for the division lead so they need this game. I don’t think they’ll mess around here in a great spot. Lions are 2nd worst on the Model vRB, 7th worst vWR and 8th worst vTE. The Titans have great players at all of those positions so I expect them to score 30 points at minimum at home. Their defense has been below average, especially against the pass, but I think they’ll be able to get through this weak Lions offensive line. I’ll take the Titans giving the points, and don’t be shocked if they end up losing by double digits. PS it’s scary when a player’s 2x Touchdown odds (Derrick Henry at +185) are about to same as the best player on the other team to score once.

Sunday, December 20th

1:00 PM ET

HOUSTON TEXANS at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-7) ; O/U 51.5

Model Z Projection: 32–18 IND

Straight Up Pick: Indianapolis Colts

Spread Pick: IND -7⭐⭐⭐⭐

O/U Pick: Under 51.5⭐⭐

Zack’s Plays:

- IND -7 (-110)

- IND -13.5 Alternate Spread (+175)

- Taylor to score / IND to win DOUBLE (+110)

- Pittman to score 2x (+900)

- Pittman to score / IND to win DOUBLE (+210)

Top DFS Matchups: Jonathan Taylor ($7,200), Michael Pittman ($4,800), Trey Burton ($2,900), TY Hilton ($5,500)

Notable Inactives: HOU S Justin Reid, HOU DT Brandon Dunn

Notes: If the Texans weren’t underdogs enough at first glance, they will be without their 2nd best defensive player in S Justin Reed. They’re 2nd worst in the model on defense by a slim margin (behind Jacksonville) and Indianapolis has been excellent on offense as of late scoring 34+ points in 4 of their last 5 games. I don’t expect them to ease up at all here as the Texans love to give up yards on the ground and RB Jonathan Taylor is starting to breakout into a really good RB. I’ll keep the 7+ point favorites trend going here and take the Colts giving points in this one with high confidence. Great matchups for every position so I like RB Jonathan Taylor, WR Michael Pittman (more redzone looks and snaps than Hilton), and TE Trey Burton (the redzone TE).

Sunday, December 20th

1:00 PM ET

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS at MIAMI DOLPHINS (-1.5) ; O/U 41.5

Model Z Projection: 23–22 NE

Straight Up Pick: New England Patriots

Spread Pick: NE +1.5⭐

O/U Pick: Under 41.5⭐

Zack’s Plays:

- NE ML (+106)

- Sony Michel to score (+195)

- Sony Michel to score / NE to win DOUBLE (+380)

- Under 41.5 (-110)

Top DFS Matchups: Sony Michel ($4,300)

Notable Inactives: NE RB1 Damien Harris, NE WR1 Julian Edelman (still)

Notes: The Patriots are favored in the model here, I predicted them to be favored in the initial line (and got laughed at by Matt Fontana, Kenny Bunch and Kevin Morgan), and I think I’m still leaning towards the pats. Bias? No. Let me back up why the Dolphins aren’t that good. The Dolphins last 3 wins were against the Bengals, Jets and Chargers. Whoop-de-doo. Pre-StatRanks, they are the 22nd best team on my model overall and are 2nd to last on offense because of their awful offensive line. The Patriots are the opposite with an elite offensive line (3rd in the model). The Patriots defense is also statistically just as good as the Dolphins are and behind them in talent by just a little bit. I don’t love the pick, it’s a 1 ⭐ confidence, but I’m doing it. It’s the Dolphins Offensive Line for me to go along with the poor run defense that faces a team that runs it the 2nd most in the league.

Sunday, December 20th

1:00 PM ET

CHICAGO BEARS at MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-3) ; O/U 46.5

Model Z Projection: 27–24 CHI

Straight Up Pick: Chicago Bears

Spread Pick: CHI +3⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

O/U Pick: Over 46.5⭐⭐⭐

Zack’s Plays:

- [2X BET] CHI ML (+128)

- CHI +3 (-110)

- Montgomery to score (+110)

- Montgomery to score 2x (+700)

- Montgomery to score / CHI to win DOUBLE (+270)

- Allen Robinson to score (+125)

- Allen Robinson to score 2x (+800)

- Allen Robinson to score / CHI to win DOUBLE (+300)

- Cole Kmet to score (+320)

- Trubisky over 247.5 Passing Yards (-110)

Top DFS Matchups: David Montgomery ($7,000), Allen Robinson ($7,400), Mitch Trubisky ($5,500), Cole Kmet ($3,000)

Notable Inactives: MIN LB Eric Kendricks, MIN TE1 Kyle Rudolph, MIN CB3* Kris Boyd, CHI CB3 Buster Skrine

Notes: I’d like to welcome you to another LOCK OF THE WEEK! Maybe not lock of the year like last week, but I feel super confident again in the underrated Bears. It lines up perfectly too as the Vikings (as a team) are overrated especially with star LB Eric Kendricks out again. David Montgomery is seriously breaking out into the top10 RB conversation as he is in a 3-way tie for 7th on my list. It sounds crazy, but you have to watch him run the ball. Pro Football Focus agrees as he is now 7th overall for Running Backs. Keep an eye on him if you weren’t already, that’s all I’m saying. Let me break down this upset lock. It’s pretty simple. The Bears are the 7th best defense in the model and the Vikings are 29th. The Vikings have the worst defensive line in the model, have bad linebackers (now that Kendricks is out again) and like the Broncos, only have good safeties. We saw how that turned out for them yesterday giving up 48 points (41 technically as one TD was defensive). If I could advice you to bet, I would tell you take Bears +3, Bears ML, stack it with Montgomery (MIN 32nd vRB) or Allen Robinson (MIN 25th vRB)…whatever you want, and feel good about it. But since I can’t tell you to do it, I’ll do it myself. Craig Ebinger and I have another one on one bet for this one, so we’ll see if I can make it two in a row!

Sunday, December 20th

1:00 PM ET

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-6.5) at WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM ; O/U 44

Model Z Projection: 29–20 SEA

Straight Up Pick: Seattle Seahawks

Spread Pick: SEA -6.5⭐⭐⭐

O/U Pick: Under 44⭐

Zack’s Plays:

- DK Metcalf over 73.5 Rec. Yards (-110)

- SEA -6.5 (-110)

Top DFS Matchups: SEA D/ST ($3,100)

Notable Inactives: WAS QB Alex Smith, WAS RB1 Antonio Gibson, WAS LB Kevin Pierre-Louis, WAS LB Cole Holcomb, WAS S Dashazor Everett

Notes: Washington is beat up. Look at the players above, they may not be super well-known names, but they’re all starters that now will be replaced by even lesser-known and proven starters. Seattle on the other hand is healthy, and as I say every week, a healthy Seattle defense is a good Seattle defense. Over their last 3 games, they are #1 in Points Allowed. I know the Jets last week make that number look good, but still, nothing over 23 pts since they’ve been healthy over the last 5 games. I don’t have any reason to take Washington here and I’d love to hear a reason other than “their defense is good” because that’s not enough for me when you’re without your RB1, you’re starting Dwayne Haskins and backups at all of the linebacker positions. Seattle -6.5 it is.

Sunday, December 20th

1:00 PM ET

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS at BALTIMORE RAVENS (-12.5) ; O/U 48

Model Z Projection: 31–18 BAL

Straight Up Pick: Baltimore Ravens

Spread Pick: BAL -12.5⭐⭐⭐

O/U Pick: Over 48⭐

Zack’s Plays:

- Lamar Jackson to score / BAL to win (+155)

- Lamar Jackson Over 196.5 Passing Yards (-110)

- Mark Andrews to score 2x (+750)

- Mark Andrews to score / BAL to win (+155)

- Willie Snead Over 26.5 Rec. Yards (-110)

Top DFS Matchups: Lamar Jackson ($7,500), Mark Andrews ($5,500), Willie Snead ($4,300)

Notable Inactives: JAX CB1* Sidney Jones, JAX CB2* Tre Herndon, JAX C Brandon Linder, BAL CB3 Jimmy Smith

Notes: Just like the Broncos game on Saturday, if your CB1 and CB2 are out like Jags are dealing with, I won’t pick your team. Now, there was no chance I was going to take the Jags anyways, but now I feel very confident in the Ravens giving double digit points. They do get LG Andrew Norwell (83 on the model) back which helps, but not enough to move the needle for me. Like the beginning of the year with the Jags, I’m slightly nervous with the talented young guys on the Jags offense trying to show out in a pointless game, but it’s not enough to pick their side. Give me the Ravens giving points with light confidence through a big Lamar Jackson game through the air and on the ground against the last few games of Minshew Mania.

Sunday, December 20th

4:05 PM ET

NEW YORK JETS at LOS ANGELES RAMS (-17) ; O/U 44.5

Model Z Projection: 32–17 LAR

Straight Up Pick: Los Angeles Rams

Spread Pick: LAR -17⭐

O/U Pick: Over 44.5⭐⭐

Zack’s Plays:

- Cam Akers Over 73.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

- Cam Akers to score / LAR to win DOUBLE (-110)

- Darnold Under .5 Pass TDs (+165)

Top DFS Matchups: Cam Akers ($6,600), Robert Woods ($6,800), Cooper Kupp ($7,000), Jared Goff ($6,300)

Notable Inactives: NYJ LB Jordan Jenkins

Notes: Hey look, the Jets aren’t last on offense and defense on the Model Z this week! …just the offense. The Jags and Texans got worse because of their injuries so they have them beat for this week. Won’t matter much in what is the biggest spread of the week and I think is the 2nd biggest of the year. I’m leaning towards giving the points here as the Rams do have blowout potential. A little surprising to me, I looked up how many times they have won by 17 or more and they’ve done it 3 times, including last week by 21. They also seem to like playing at SoFi Stadium as they’ve only lost once there this year. It’s a big number, but I think I’ll lay it with super low confidence. Watch out for Cam Akers who has now hit 20+ carries in two straight games, making him the clear #1 in what used to be a crowded backfield.

Sunday, December 20th

4:05 PM ET

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at ARIZONA CARDINALS (-6.5) ; O/U 49.5

Model Z Projection: 29–23 ARI

Straight Up Pick: Arizona Cardinals

Spread Pick: ARI -6.5⭐⭐⭐⭐

O/U Pick: Over 49.5⭐⭐⭐

Zack’s Plays:

- [2X BET] ARI -6.5 (-110)

- ARI -9.5 Alternate Spread (+130)

- Deandre Hopkins to score / ARI to win DOUBLE (+155)

- Deandre Hopkins to score 2x (+600)

- Deandre Hopkins to score 3x (+3100)

- Kyler Murray over 258.5 Passing Yards (-108)

- Jalen Hurts to score (+190)

- Miles Sanders to score (+135)

Top DFS Matchups: Miles Sanders ($6,900), Kyler Murray ($7,000), Deandre Hopkins ($7,900), Jalen Hurts ($5,900)

Notable Inactives: PHI CB1 Darius Slay, PHI CB2 Avante Maddox, ARI S Jalen Thompson

Notes: Yet another game where the CB1 and CB2 are out (Eagles) so you know what I’m doing…Go Cards. If the Eagles were at full strength, I would still go Cardinals straight up I think, but it would be tough. The Cardinals are fresh off a blowout win after losing three straight and will need this game if they want a shot at the playoffs because they have two tough division matchups to finish the season. Normally the Eagles are good against the pass, but without their two top guys, they’re going to have a tough time against the 4th best team in Yards Per Game. The Jalen Hurts experiment is intriguing and should do well against that bad Cardinals D-Line, but the Eagles O-Line isn’t much better. Cardinals -6.5 here, with very high confidence. We haven’t seen one of those huge Deandre Hopkins games in a while right? I think he wakes up this game.

Sunday, December 20th

4:25 PM ET

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-3) at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS ; O/U 53.5

Model Z Projection: 27–25 NO

Straight Up Pick: Kansas City Chiefs

Spread Pick: KC -3⭐

O/U Pick: Over 53.5⭐

Zack’s Plays:

- Alvin Kamara to score (-165)

- Travis Kelce to score 2x (+500)

- Travis Kelce to score / KC to win (+170)

Top DFS Matchups: Alvin Kamara ($7,400), Travis Kelce ($8,000)

Notable Inactives: KC RT Mike Remmers, KC LB Damien Wilson, NO WR1 Michael Thomas, NO DT Malcom Brown, NO RG/C Nick Easton

Notes: Game of the week alert! In comes Drew Brees, out goes Michael Thomas to IR. This will be a great test for both teams are fighting to get that 1 seed in their conferences and both land in the top 5 in the Model Z. What’s the equation for beating the Chiefs though? It’s stopping them in the redzone. Sure, Mahomes and Hill will go up and down the field all day long, but the key is to limit those drives to field goals instead of Touchdowns. Unfortunately, the one statistical weakness for them are passing touchdowns allowed (19th in the league). When I first saw this game on the schedule, I thought that I would take the Saints to take down the beasts. But I don’t know, I think the Chiefs offense can put up some points on the Saints and I think the Saints will be a little careful with Brees on his first game back. It’s hard for me not to compare this game to the high scoring Packers v Saints game wayyyy back in Week 3. Sorry Saints fans, but I think the same end result happens (with low confidence) with the other team coming into the dome and winning. Chiefs -3 in a great game. Homecoming comeback game for Clyde? I hope so, but the matchup is not favorable. Kelce though, not great on paper, but Demario Davis (star NO LB) is more of a run defender and pass rusher than a coverage guy and the same goes for S Marcus Williams and S Malcolm Jenkins who are both great Safeties, but not the best in coverage.

Sunday, December 20th

8:20 PM ET

CLEVELAND BROWNS (-6.5) at NEW YORK GIANTS ; O/U 44.5

Model Z Projection: 30–21 CLE

Straight Up Pick: Cleveland Browns

Spread Pick: CLE -6.5⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

O/U Pick: Over 44.5⭐

Zack’s Plays:

- [2X BET] CLE -6.5 (-110)

- Chubb to score / CLE to win DOUBLE (+130)

- Chubb under 75.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

- Landry to score (+145)

- Higgins to score (+260)

- Engram to score (+310)

- NYG Under 19.5 Points (-110)

Top DFS Matchups: Nick Chubb ($8,300), Jarvis Landry ($7,000), Rashard Higgins ($4,900), Evan Engram ($4,300)

Notable Inactives: NYG QB Daniel Jones, NYG CB1 James Bradberry, CLE S Andrew Sendejo, CLE RG Wyatt Teller

Notes: The two NYG names listed above may be the most important players to this Giants team outside of Saquan Barkley so it’s very unfortunate they won’t get to play in this important NFC game. On the other side, the Browns get back star CB1 Denzel Ward who has missed the last 3 games. That reminds me…the Browns vs Ravens game last week! How could I forget the game of the year! Now the public can join me in actually wanting to watch the Browns play, because that offense is really fun to watch. They pound it on the ground, and Baker is phenomenal at play action which is one of the best combos you can have. For the Giants, with Daniel Jones out, I give them zero shot. They won with McCoy in the Seahawks upset a few weeks ago, but that was all on the defense as McCoy had an awful 105 yard, 1TD, 1INT statline. Ew. I’ll take the Browns giving points with high confidence in a low scoring game with a Browns defensive performance holding the Giants to under 20 points.