Are Robots Ready to Replace Us in Jobs?
By: Aritro Banerjee
Tags: Singularity, Robots, AI, Upskilling, Technology

Authors: The Syndicate (Aniket Biswas Burman | Aritro Banerjee | Debarpan Musib | Isha Gupta | Manav Hirani | Rudrani Bose | Simran Jain)

For years conspiracy theorists have been spreading fear about the singularity, or AI taking over the world by surpassing human beings in intelligence or capability. According to an MIT study in 2017, AI fails to correctly recognise images of cats from images of other animals and objects. Thus the fear of robots replacing humans completely in jobs is unfounded. There are many complex and intricate details to even the most menial jobs, that AI will surely not be able to compute, at least for the foreseeable future.

For jobs that require dynamic decision making and improvisation, the threat of being replaced by technology is non-existent. Automation will replace only repetitive tasks and monotonous aspects of work, making the lives of the employees simpler.

Entrepreneurs, artists, scientists and a lot of other categories of workers cannot be replaced regardless of our technological progress. Even the work of a manufacturing line supervisor cannot be reliably entrusted to a piece of code. This brings us to a more critical question — how should we approach technological progress in the workplace?

In the Rajiv Gandhi era, the Indian parliament witnessed protests from people who claimed that computerisation of the Nation’s working processes would lead to loss of lakhs of jobs! Cut to 2019 and the Indian IT-BPM industry size is roughly $177 Billion and still going strong!

Adoption of AI has multiple advantages. Humans and robots need to work in tandem for enhanced productivity. Robots are better suited to do automated work, and humans are needed to do jobs that require a personalised touch. The majority of workers who have been displaced or at risk of displacement perform process-driven jobs. Robots and AI will do these kinds of jobs more efficiently and effectively than humans.

In the late 20th century, the increasingly common use of AI to perform simple, repetitive tasks helped in increasing output, standardising the quality standards, and keeping the costs under control at the same time. In many industries like the automotive industry, robots became responsible for all the back-breaking tasks initially performed by workers in poor working conditions.

Additionally, the introduction of technology has allowed the workers to do their current jobs more effectively. Construction workers who initially had to use claw hammers now use nail guns, which have reduced the accidents. As Bill Gates said, “displaced jobs might fill holes in the labour market that already exist elsewhere, such as elderly care, teaching and helping children with special needs” it is believed that AI generates a positive impact on society.

AI comes with certain disadvantages as well. The introduction of robots in the manufacturing sector has threatened the jobs and the wages of blue-collar workers. These workers lack the prospects of other employment opportunities; leading to inequality. In recent times, the scope of unskilled labourers like cashiers, store attendants’, waiters have been reduced with the emergence of self-payment kiosks, automatic food dispensers, and ATMs.

With the advent of self-driving cars, the jobs of about 3.5 million truck drivers’, cab drivers, and delivery agents at risk. According to a report by PwC, by the mid-2030s, one-third of all jobs face the risk of being automated. The addition of a single additional robot reduces the national employment to population ratio by about 0.2%.

Certain jobs are more prone to automation. Currently, AI has been adopted in most mega-factories, especially in the automobile sector. For adoption of AI, a sector must be feasible in terms of technology and economic considerations. Those that depend heavily on data collection and processing are the ones most susceptible to automation. For simpler tasks, the software is available at low costs. The sectors safest against the threat of automation are those dealing with Human Resources, decision-making, and creative work. Communication, emotional competence and context are drivers of all human interaction.

The advent of automation would not be able to replace these drivers. Teaching too, is somewhat immune from automation. A personal touch is necessary for effective learning, while individuals can also specialise in specific fields. Having in-depth knowledge of a particular subject and analysing its relevant resources differentiates humans from technology. Ethics too is a human prerogative. Future leaders would have to have strong moral values and be skilled in resolving ethical dilemmas as automation takes up most of the menial work.

Yet AI, while taking away jobs, promises to create new avenues of employment too. The Future of Jobs report (2018) predicted that AI would be one of the main drivers of business growth, adding 58 million new jobs by 2020. Forecasts show an additional labour demand between 21% to 33% of the global workforce (555–890 million jobs) in 2030, which is greater than the predicted number of jobs lost. In these new jobs to be added, most people will be working alongside machines, not being unemployed because of them. This represents the phenomenon of “multiplicity”, or diverse combinations of people and machines working together to innovate.

A large portion of these trends will be seen in emerging economies like India, with a rapidly growing working-age population. Yet internet penetration rate remains only 50% in India in 2020, and equal access to these new jobs will however depend on bridging the existing digital divide.

An ethical and egalitarian adoption of AI in the workplace will require a three-pronged approach to build an ecosystem where humans and intelligent machines can thrive together.

Businesses should focus on upskilling and cross-training the current workforce with new technological methods and tools. Also, organisations should look into possibilities of relocating current employees based on their age, years of experience, and skills. Governments worldwide need to introduce a “Wage Insurance” policy to provide laid-off workers wage subsidy so that their livelihoods do not get impacted severely.

Policymakers have to focus on the unemployed so that the social safety net remains unscathed. Relevant programs under this domain are Universal Basic Income, Subsidised Medical Support, Nutritional Assistance, Temporary assistance for the needy families, etc.

The students’ learning curriculum needs a huge revamp to introduce them to the new technological tools early on. It will make them better equipped for future technological innovations. Introduction to coding, Machine Learning, Robotics etc. must be introduced in the syllabus of the school students. Also, experiential learning should be adopted instead of heavy theory teaching.

Depending upon a number of factors, automation or robot deployment can affect different sectors to a varying degree. Complete automation or replacement, as we have seen, isn’t possible at the moment. However, if history is any indicator, the nature of jobs will undergo a change eventually, with the emergence of new kinds of roles.

The Industrial Revolution created economies of scale. Although it was at the cost of local partisans, it led to massive improvements in the lives of the people, as the economy grew and new opportunities were created. With the advancement of computers, more and more people were able to gain jobs, despite people believing otherwise.

The human race is known for its adaptability, especially after the pandemic. We need to be proactive to embrace the advancements and not fear change, which is inevitable. As long as people remain open to adapting themselves according to the available opportunities and keep upskilling, humans will remain relevant.