Confirmation Bias
By: Eugene Vyborov
Tags: Bias, Decision Making, Confirmation Bias

Confirmation bias is a superstar of cognitive biases. This fellow receives arguably the most attention of business media, social scientists, and success coaches. And yet not enough, as it seems to continue corrupting the judgment of even the most competent decision-makers. The strange part is that we are all conscious about the confirmation bias, but somehow we keep walking into that same lamppost.

Confirmation bias is an innate tendency of human beings to unconsciously favor information that confirms their beliefs over the evidence that challenges them. Simply put, a convenient fallacy is more attractive for us than an inconvenient fact. While being an evolutionary tool that has been helping us keep up with the world, confirmation bias distorts our capacity for rational thinking, sometimes completely preventing it from happening. Such propensity affects the functioning of society by twisting evidence-based decision-making.

PROBLEM

Confirmation bias is in the modern way of how we learn. Whatever non-fiction book is on your shelf, whether it is about “insightful” leadership tactic, time management recipe, magical diet or, yep, dealing with cognitive biases — I bet most of them follow the same structure:

Problem statement . An author talks about an issue that dramatically affects your life.

. An author talks about an issue that dramatically affects your life. Solution introduction . A new diet, a new approach, new tactics, you name it — it will save your life!

. A new diet, a new approach, new tactics, you name it — it will save your life! Confirmation examples . Pages and pages worth of historical examples that prove the solution reliability, occasionally mixed with confronting arguments for other approaches.

. Pages and pages worth of historical examples that prove the solution reliability, occasionally mixed with confronting arguments for other approaches. Conclusion — solution works like a charm. You just put it on the wound and see the magic happening.

Take any article — they are nothing but the same — problem statement, solution, confirmation. If you do see an issue with that — bless you, because most people consider it an OK approach to make a point.

Such a form is indeed a convenient way to make informational food more digestible for our brains. The problem is that those who prepare the dish tend to season it only with evidence that proves their point. It makes the intellectual meal look deliciously convincing and undoubtedly credible, even if it is not. In such handpicked garnish, any position, any idea, any approach can be justified and widely accepted.

SOLUTION

Preferring believes over facts can be a comfortable way of living. For decision-makers, however, it holds an unacceptable level of risk of making dangerous mistakes.

So what do we do about it? Before declaring war on confirmation bias, let’s strengthen ourselves with some obvious yet forgettable logic:

The fact that anything can be proved does not mean that anything is right.

The fact that something can be confirmed does not mean that there are no other, more appropriate, or efficient solutions.

The fact that something has supportive evidence does not mean that there is no evidence that challenges it.

Being armed with such simple but surprisingly powerful protective charms makes combating confirmation bias much easier. Now we can make our firm moves against the monster of fallacy:

Detect it. Cognitive biases are a fundamental part of how our brain works. As a result, it is hardly possible to detect intellectual mistakes by trying to find something “out of place” in our judgment. Instead, we can pay attention to ideas that look suspiciously satisfactory to us. If something in our mind feels like “it is as right as it should be”, — this is our prime candidate for rigorous interrogation.

Break it down. Believes are not primitives, but complex connections between ideas, experiences, and many other pieces of knowledge. To flesh out a misconception, it often takes to chop the concept into the smallest units. Exploring them one at a time, we will eventually uncover the true nature of the belief in question.

Use critical thinking. Verifying belief that already seems valid is pointless. Searching for flaws, on the other hand, can save the day. It does not matter how compelling the idea is — the first thing we should look for is the way to discredit it. Even the slightest fallibility can be a sign that the concept is invalid.

Find a “red team.” We do not have to win this fight honorably. If it is too challenging to defeat our own biases or when stakes are too high, why don’t we employ an ally? A sharp devil’s advocate may be a game-changer. They do not have to share beliefs with the role they entrusted with, but they should be an efficient opposition. For me, the best “red team” is the one who is way smarter than me.

Confirmation

The confirmation bias has many ways to our minds. It affects our political views and makes us believe pseudoscientific notions; it is behind our business decisions and even scientific researches.

One textbook case is Andrew’s Wakefield’s study in The Lancet in 1998 that linked the MMR vaccine to child autism. Twelve years after the medical journal retracted Wakefield’s publication, debunking all the ex-physician statements. Wakefield is an anti-vaccination activist, and his desire to link autism and vaccines flawed his judgment.

The dangerous consequence of his actions is yet to be managed, however. Years after, millions still believe that vaccination leads to autism and brain damage. Parents are so afraid of hurting their children; they ignore any evidence that supports the vaccination and focus on ridiculous myths. As a result, measles outbreaks around the globe still take hundreds of thousands of lives.

Conclusion

Every decision-maker knows about cognitive biases. We all have them, and we can not “cure” them, but we still can manage our way through. Acknowledging biases is not enough, though. It is like seeing your nose — it is here with you all the time, but you never bother to pay attention (well, until someone points you to it).

Unlike seeing our damn noses, biases affect too many areas of our lives to be ignored. To overcome the perils of cognitive errors, we need to act proactively, revealing them, and then slashing our way through.