International Elections and Leaders: June 2020 Briefing
By: Clayton Besaw
Tags: Government, Politics, International Relations, Elections, Data

The REIGN Dataset (Rulers, Elections, and Irregular Governance) covers political conditions in every country each and every month. We update the data set monthly to reflect the most recent political events, such as coups, world elections, and changes in political leadership. We also provide monthly election coverage and track leadership changes in a series of updates called International Elections and Leaders.

Catalan Atlas Mansa Musa: Bibliothèque nationale de France / Public domain

This regular briefing provides a quick overview of electoral and leadership changes for the previous month and previews important election events for this month.

NOTE: We will be providing paired down version of our REIGN briefings over the next 6–12 months as we free up time/resources for a series of new projects on an interim basis. Given this, we will also be condensing any COVID-19 related governance/election changes into our own REIGN brief.

International Elections

Two key elections for the chief executive took place in the month of May.

Burundi — Presidential (May 20)

Burundi held a contentious presidential election in which Evariste Ndayishimiye won with 71 percent of the vote.

Ndayishimiye is the chosen successor of incumbent president Pierre Nkurunziza and his CNDD-FDD party. Nkurunziza has been in power since 2005 and decided to not contest this election following popular backlash.

However, the election was likely marred by serious fraud and election related violence.

The CNDD-FDD’s electoral record as the ruling party has been historically problematic, with many practices continuing to this day. Discriminate violence and detention against journalists and opposition politicians has raised concerns about how much the government sought to depress potential opposition turn-out.

As a result, the opposition has vowed to challenge the results in court.

In the meantime, keep an eye on Burundi. This most recent election is unlikely to quell opposition discontent and could potentially leave a new cycle of political violence and repression in its wake.

Suriname — Legislative (May 25)

Suriname held a legislative election in which the opposition Progressive Reform Party gained the most seats, beating the incumbent president’s National Democracy Party.

Incumbent president Desi Bouterse is now likely to lose re-election to his post and will potentially face prison time after being convicted on murder charges related to the killing of 15 people during his time as leader of Suriname’s post-coup dictatorship in 1982.

Unsurprisingly, Bouterse has called for a recount and has implicitly suggested that the results are fraudulent.

Bouterse has few incentives to abide by the election, given that his life and liberty will likely be suspended once he is out of office.

Given this, Suriname could become a potential hot-spot for political violence or a coup event if Bouterse seeks to overturn the democratic framework of the country while stoking supporters to come to his aid.

However, one should be cautiously optimistic and a peaceful transition of power would further strengthen Suriname’s democratic institutions following their slow resurrection after decades of instability.

New Leaders

Two new leaders took power during the month of May

Mustafa Al-Kadhimi — Iraq (Prime Minister)

Iraq has finally approved a successor to out-going prime minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi following sustained popular protests, escalating factional violence and a serious economic crisis related to the COVID-19 pandemic and the collapse of oil prices.

Al-Kadhimi, an independent politician and reformer, will likely face serious challenges during his tenure. He will need to balance relations between regional rivals and potential non-state challengers to his government (Islamic State, Shia militias).

He will also be tasked with fixing sustained popular discontent while trying to chart a course for an independent Iraq that can make decisions while attempting to moderate the overwhelming influence of regional power players such as the United States and Iran.

Moeketsi Majoro — Lesotho (Prime Minister)

Following the resignation of incumbent PM Tom Thabane after being accused of playing a role in his ex-wife’s murder, finance minister Moeketsi Majoro was chosen to assume leadership by his All Basotho Convention (ABC).

Majoro was formally made PM on May 20 after succeeding in getting the support of the Democratic Congress and other parties who pledged to form a government under the new ABC leader.

Majoro, a PhD in economics, will be tasked with unifying Lesotho’s fractured political environment that has shaken up even his own party.

He will also need to navigate the current COVID-19 pandemic and the economic consequences that come with it.

If Majoro can keep the pandemic from overwhelming the tiny nation while also addressing poverty and unemployment, he will likely stand a good chance to retain his position during the next round of elections in 2022.

COVID-19 Related Governance/Election Issues

Poland (Election Delay): Poland delayed its controversial presidential election days before the voting day after political parties agreed to a delay to better address problems related to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The new election date is expected to be sometime on or after June 28. (original date: May 10, delayed: May 6, new date: Anytime on or after June 28)

Elections in June

One election is expected to take place in June with another potentially taking place in June.

St. Kitts and Nevis will hold a general election on June 5 to elect its next National Assembly. Poland will potentially hold a presidential election June 28, but this date has not yet been confirmed.