Op-Ed | The Shia Dilemma
By: The Silent Majority
Tags: Politics, Middle East, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Revolution

Op-Ed | The Shia Dilemma

Disclaimer: This essay refers to religious communities for the sake of argumentation and to represent reality as objectively as possible. In no way do these reflect my personal views of how things should be, instead they reflect the status quo. No offense is intended to any religious group. Remember, we are discussing religious group in a strictly demographical sense, not from an individual perspective.

Hundreds of thousands of protesters have taken to the streets of Beirut since mid-October, in what appears to be a spontaneous movement against the government’s inefficiency and the ruling class’ mismanagement, nepotism, corruption and oligarchy. The movement was triggered by a proposed tax on VoIP services like WhatsApp and Viber — the drop that spilled the glass.

The political elite, which has been more or less unchanged since the civil war, is responsible for the exponential public debt, the deteriorating infrastructure, the decline in the quality of life and the mass brain drain. It is not uncommon to hear the war generation anecdotally saying that they used to be “better-off” in times of war. The political elite, aka the upper 1%, keeps getting richer while the middle class slowly disintegrates and the lower class expands. Bearing in mind that is in the ruling class’ interest to maintain the status quo as the public debt is mostly owed to local banks, in which they are major shareholders — a pseudo-legal nationwide Ponzi scheme.

The October revolution managed to break several socio-political barriers that were previously considered unimaginable in the near future. Indeed, in just a few days the Lebanese population proved able to overcome major issues that seemed to be a few generations ahead of us. Some key milestones include:

Decentralization: A previously quasi-inexistant policy; protesters mobilized in every major city, in almost every district and neighborhood across Lebanon. All separated geographically but one at heart, proving to the political establishment that decentralization does not mean separation.

A previously quasi-inexistant policy; protesters mobilized in every major city, in almost every district and neighborhood across Lebanon. All separated geographically but one at heart, proving to the political establishment that decentralization does not mean separation. Civic-Mindedness: Lebanon is notorious for its chaos, yet the protests were arguably the most civilized and peaceful protests of today’s world — regardless of what foreign media outlets often try to portray or frame. School and university classes were being held in the demonstrations, weddings took place amongst the protesters, citizens took it upon themselves to prepare food for each other, and blood drives were set up to donate blood to the Red Cross — A sort of utopian anarchy. A few minor incidents aside, the protests were peaceful in comparison with, for example, the yellow vests movement in France (gilets jaunes). A couple of hundreds of yellow vests protesters in Paris caused billions of dollars in property damages, crippling the French economy for almost 50 weekends. Protesters in Lebanon formed a 170km human chain across the entire country, North to South, anecdotally the first time ever Lebanese people stand in line.

Lebanon is notorious for its chaos, yet the protests were arguably the most civilized and peaceful protests of today’s world — regardless of what foreign media outlets often try to portray or frame. School and university classes were being held in the demonstrations, weddings took place amongst the protesters, citizens took it upon themselves to prepare food for each other, and blood drives were set up to donate blood to the Red Cross — A sort of utopian anarchy. A few minor incidents aside, the protests were peaceful in comparison with, for example, the yellow vests movement in France (gilets jaunes). A couple of hundreds of yellow vests protesters in Paris caused billions of dollars in property damages, crippling the French economy for almost 50 weekends. Protesters in Lebanon formed a 170km human chain across the entire country, North to South, anecdotally the first time ever Lebanese people stand in line. Social and Environmental Responsibility: For a population that is often criticized for lacking social responsibility, protesters immediately set up sorting bins, recycling stations and clean-up campaigns. A glimpse of hope in a nation that’s been struggling with waste disposal management for a few years now.

For a population that is often criticized for lacking social responsibility, protesters immediately set up sorting bins, recycling stations and clean-up campaigns. A glimpse of hope in a nation that’s been struggling with waste disposal management for a few years now. Women Power: Lebanon is considered one of the most progressive Arab countries, with Lebanese women gaining the right to vote in 1952, only approx.10 years after Lebanon’s independence. Yet after the civil war ended in the early 90s and up until the protests, women have been sidelined in the political realm. The October revolution proved once again the adversity and the indispensability of the female presence in political life. The footage of a woman kicking the armed bodyguard of a minister in the groin quickly turned into the symbol of the revolution. Women formed human barrages between protesters and security forces to maintain the peace. Some of the most empowering speeches and chants were delivered by women.

Lebanon is considered one of the most progressive Arab countries, with Lebanese women gaining the right to vote in 1952, only approx.10 years after Lebanon’s independence. Yet after the civil war ended in the early 90s and up until the protests, women have been sidelined in the political realm. The October revolution proved once again the adversity and the indispensability of the female presence in political life. The footage of a woman kicking the armed bodyguard of a minister in the groin quickly turned into the symbol of the revolution. Women formed human barrages between protesters and security forces to maintain the peace. Some of the most empowering speeches and chants were delivered by women. The Return of Public Spaces: You can find almost anything in the tiny Lebanon, a miniature replica of the world. Though it lacks one essential thing: public spaces where people from different backgrounds come together. The October revolution witnessed the rebirth of public spaces, even if it occurred on a makeshift basis, highways, bridges and monuments were now being repurposed to accommodate the crowds.

You can find almost anything in the tiny Lebanon, a miniature replica of the world. Though it lacks one essential thing: public spaces where people from different backgrounds come together. The October revolution witnessed the rebirth of public spaces, even if it occurred on a makeshift basis, highways, bridges and monuments were now being repurposed to accommodate the crowds. Youth Mobilisation: The youth, particularly student movements, used to be the playmaker of Lebanese politics during the pre-civil war and civil war eras, one notable example is the 1968 student revolution that emerged from the American University of Beirut. Any senior Lebanese citizen can attest to that, “students used to move the country” they would say. The post-civil war era witnessed an oppression of the student body by the Syrian regime, up until the Cedar Revolution in 2005, which drove the Syrian occupation out of Lebanon, with of course the pivotal role of the student body. After that, economical burdens and mundane distractions seemed to sedate the youth, too busy repaying student loans, looking for jobs or wondering where is the best party on a Saturday night. Today, schools and universities are striking in solidarity with the movement, as patriotism and the fight for justice are lessons you do not learn in a classroom.

The youth, particularly student movements, used to be the playmaker of Lebanese politics during the pre-civil war and civil war eras, one notable example is the 1968 student revolution that emerged from the American University of Beirut. Any senior Lebanese citizen can attest to that, “students used to move the country” they would say. The post-civil war era witnessed an oppression of the student body by the Syrian regime, up until the Cedar Revolution in 2005, which drove the Syrian occupation out of Lebanon, with of course the pivotal role of the student body. After that, economical burdens and mundane distractions seemed to sedate the youth, too busy repaying student loans, looking for jobs or wondering where is the best party on a Saturday night. Today, schools and universities are striking in solidarity with the movement, as patriotism and the fight for justice are lessons you do not learn in a classroom. Unity and Inclusivity: The demonstrations brought together people from all religions, creeds and social classes. We witnessed Christian priests and Muslim cheikhs walking hand in hand. Muslims and Christians praying together. Sunni towns chanting for Shia towns and vice versa. Individuals with a higher income where rubbing shoulders with unemployed people. Prestigious university students were sharing the streets, their meals and their anger with people with no or little education, and vice versa.

The demonstrations brought together people from all religions, creeds and social classes. We witnessed Christian priests and Muslim cheikhs walking hand in hand. Muslims and Christians praying together. Sunni towns chanting for Shia towns and vice versa. Individuals with a higher income where rubbing shoulders with unemployed people. Prestigious university students were sharing the streets, their meals and their anger with people with no or little education, and vice versa. Sectarian/Political Emancipation: Perhaps the most important milestone, the one that interests us, is the fact that for a moment people let go of their sectarian-based political affiliation. They seemed to forget their ruthless “leaders,” the warlords that have been playing them like pawns since the civil war in 1975. In this post-modern feudal system, where political inheritance is the norm, people no longer cared for their leaders — at least for a brief moment. These sectarian-based rulers thrive on fear. Their very raison d’être is protecting their respective local communities from “the other”, and supposedly guarantying the political rights of their various constituents. To simplify things, every political leader makes sure the other leader doesn’t get a bigger piece of the pie, under the pretext that it’s in the interests of their voters, a particular religious community. The October revolution stripped the ruling class of this pretext, the fear of the other, by proving that the norm was, is and will always be solidarity.* In just a few days and weeks, the revolution achieved more than the government did in the last 30 years.

* Side note: There has always been a sort of contradiction in Lebanon, a country that economically relies on the tertiary sector: Foreigners tend to find Lebanese people warm, hospitable, generous, welcoming and accepting….yet the very same Lebanese people seem to hate and fight each other for make-believe reasons.

Protests in Jal El Dib, North of Beirut

The Elephant in the Room

At the epitome of the protests, 2 to 2.5 Million people took to the streets, that is approximately half the population of Lebanon (To put things into perspective it is as if 150M American or 30M French citizens protested all at once). Lebanon witnessed a sort of political emancipation (mentioned above) that was not expected anytime in the near future. Though this political renaissance is only natural given the culmination of the following facts within each community:

The Christian Public: With a decreasing demographical presence in Lebanon, and as the sore losers of the civil war, Christians in Lebanon have been left to choose between the lesser of evils who all claim they are the guarantor of Christian interests. The Christian leadership’s rhetoric is the same across all political parties: Guarantying the rights of Christians. It is a purely emotional rhetoric, bearing in mind that the rights of all religious groups are guaranteed by the constitution itself — but demagogues will be demagogues. Those who harmed the Christians of Lebanon the most are no other but the Christians themselves through inter-Christian fighting. More Christians were killed by Christians than by Muslims during the civil war. Prior to the civil war, Christians had a quasi-absolute political power via the President, who maintained all the executive powers and is de facto Christian according to the National Pact of power sharing. The civil war resulted in stripping the president of his powers through the Taef accord, which created a sort of frustration within the Christian community. That frustration grew larger, disappointment after disappointment, as the same political leaders responsible for inter-Christian fighting and the loss of Christian “authority” continue to fight, politically if not military, in the post-war era. Perhaps the saddest part of this conflict is that it is not based on doctrine, nor a socio-economic stance, nor an intellectual point of view — it is based on the individual that is the political leader himself.

Therefore, it is not difficult for Christians in Lebanon to let go of their warlords because the potential gains outweigh the status quo and/or the potential loss. This could explain why the October revolution witnessed a mass political emancipation among the majority of Christians, they were simply fed up. In addition, it is worth mentioning that Christianity is the predecessor of political liberalism, which means that Christians are arguably more prone to be liberal — in theory.

The Sunni Public: Muslim Sunnis emerged as the winners of the civil war with the Taef accord transferring the executive powers to the Prime Minister, a Muslim Sunni by default according to the National pact of power sharing. The Sunni golden age ended with the assassination of Prime Minister Rafic Hariri in 2005, which resulted in the ousting of Syrian occupation forces in Lebanon. Following the assassination of PM Hariri, the competition for the Sunni leadership got fiercer. Several multi-billionaires emerged as the next Rafic Hariri, most of them had more experience than Hariri’s son, current ousted Prime Minister Saad Hariri. The Sunni public expected their multi-billionaire leaders to contribute to the social, economical, cultural…well-being of the Sunni voters — The same way late PM Rafic Hariri supposedly did. But quite the opposite happened. The Sunni leaders capitalized on impoverishing Sunni populations to gain leverage and maintain control. Tripoli, the capital of the North, once a Mediterranean hub of culture, coexistence, industry, design and craft…was transformed into an impoverished radical islamist “ghetto” for political gain. Hungry voters are easier to control.

Thus, it is is easy to discern the Sunni frustration towards their political rulers who have manipulated, deceived and impoverished them. This could be one of the explanations behind the mass political emancipation among the majority of Sunnis.

The Shia Public: In the early years of the Lebanese nation, Muslim Shias considered themselves as “deprived.” In fact, the political movement Amal, the precursor of Hezbollah, was founded in reaction to the government’s constant neglect towards Shia communities, aka the “deprived” community of Lebanon. The Shias emerged as winners of the civil war, and the Syrian presence in Lebanon helped strengthen their position throughout the years. In 2000, Hezbollah’s ousting of the Israeli occupational forces in the South helped them gain more momentum, leading to a “pseudo-victory” in the 2006 South Lebanon war against Israel. Hezbollah has since established itself as the MVP of Lebanese politics, slowly shifting from a guerrilla “resistance” movement to a political one extending its reach within the government. Hezbollah’s recent victory fighting alongside Assad’s forces in Syria asserted the movement’s dominance as the behemoth of the region. For a long time, Shia meant Hezbollah and Hezbollah meant Shia. Unlike the Christians, Sunnis and Druze community to some extent, there was no contestation within the Shia community and any opposition was often silenced. Hezbollah and Amal, two sides of the same coin, held a duopoly over Shia voters. It was understandable given the fact that the Shia community received financial and social aid from Hezbollah via Iranian funding. Shias have the upper hand, they are united, they have an arsenal of weapons, they have funding, military training…etc. They were the first class citizens in a nation of second class others. Everyone is beneath the law, except for Hezbollah. They control the drug trade, the contraband and other clandestine activities with no accountability whatsoever. They are popularly known as “the nation within the nation.” To the surprise of many, the October revolution witnessed a considerable participation within the Shia community. In fact the first martyr of the revolution was Shia, and the southern town of Nabatieh, once a Hezbollah/Amal stronghold, held the most intense and fiery demonstrations. That also came as a culmination of several factors, including the lack of funding brought about by US financial sanctions on Iran and Hezbollah, in addition to a frustration within the Shia community due to rising death tolls on the Syrian front — Why are they paying the price for someone else’s war?

That being said, arguably the biggest surprise of the revolution was the massive participation of Shias. Hezbollah thrives on projecting an image of strength, but things that are too evident are often untrue. The taboo was broken by the participation of Shia voters alongside their Sunni, Christian and Druze compatriots.

Unfortunately, this utopian dream of political emancipation from the traditional sectarian-based ruling class came to an end prematurely. Swarms of motorcycles raising Hezbollah flags paraded in Beirut. Another group of Hezbollah/Amal thugs attacked peaceful demonstrators, destroyed tents, and set fire to protest areas.

Destruction by Amal/Hezbollah supporters

It’s true, other ruling parties also demonstrated in support of the current system. But none of them did it at the scale of Hezbollah’s. None of them was as intimidating as Hezbollah and Amal. None of them has the military capabilities of Hezbollah. All of them are subject to the accountability of the law, except for Hezbollah. A handful of supporters branded the Progressive Socialist Party’s (PSP) flag in the Shouf area, a PSP stronghold. Hundreds of Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) supporters rallied to back the current President, founder of the FPM and Hezbollah’s main Christian ally. The attendance of the FPM rally was relatively insignificant, considering that the FPM holds 24 parliamentary seats (largest bloc) and 8 ministers (almost 1/3 of the cabinet). Friends, family and immediate relatives apart, the attendance was benign. In another isolated incident, an FPM fanatic opened fire on protesters but was swiftly halted, beaten up by angry crowds, and handed to law enforcement — a scenario that would never have happened if a Hezbollah/Amal supporter had done the same.

Again, first class and second class citizens.

Hence, we find ourselves in a very delicate situation, a majority of Christians, Sunnis and Druzes are revolting against a ruling class supported by a minority of Christians, Sunnis and Druzes. But where do the Shia stand?

Will they choose Hezbollah’s hegemony over their own basic human rights?

Will they choose their allegiance to Iran over their Lebanese identity?

Will they choose their power in a failed state over equality in a legitimate nation?

They were in the front ranks of the October revolution when it started, as they are amongst the first to pay the price of the dire economic situation. But the great divide came as a result of whether Hezbollah’s leadership belonged to the corrupt ruling class or not. Slowly, a significant number of Shia supporters began retreating from the protests. The “argument” was, and still is, that Hezbollah’s leadership are religious figures and therefore are not subject to criticism nor accountability. If they are religious figures then why are they politically active? Matters of war and peace should not be in the hands of religious figures. Budgets should not be decided by religious figures. Economic sanctions should not be caused by religious figures. Drug trafficking, tax evasion, and assassination plots should not be committed by religious figures (Unless you’re in the Middle Ages). This is however not the main focus of our topic. The issue at hand is the elephant in the room, Hezbollah’s arsenal and military capabilities beyond the revolution. The issue everyone has been burying under the rug for years, until we’ve reached the point of no return.

Protesters in Martyrs’ Square, Downtown Beirut, Lebanon

The Best Case Scenario

Let us consider the following best case scenario: The current ruling class is ousted, the revolutionaries are victorious and the political system is changed — a modern day utopia. In the best case scenario, sectarianism is abolished, infrastructure is optimal, healthcare is free for all, pollution is nonexistent and Lebanese people are all living in paradise — the Switzerland of the Levant. In the best case scenario, Lebanese citizens are suddenly woke, they don’t litter, they drive properly, they stand in line, they pay their taxes, they recycle…etc. The best case scenario is a reflection of how we act as individuals within the collective.

But how does Hezbollah’s arsenal fit in that scenario? You might argue that these are not related, though the issue with Hezbollah’s weaponry is not simply a geopolitical face-off beyond our control. It is first and foremost a socio-cultural one. Given that the raison d’être of Hezbollah’s weaponry is the presence of constant Israeli threats and transgressions, solving all internal issues in the best case scenario is still irrelevant. In the best case scenario, Hezbollah might still have its weapons outside government control. That means that some people remain above the law and some areas remain inaccessible to the government, a government that is supposedly efficient and effective in the best case scenario. The problem with Hezbollah’s arsenal is not the arsenal in itself. It’s the irresponsibility, the inequality, the upper hand, the leverage and the entitlement that come with it. Again, first class and second class citizens. Even more, the problem with Hezbollah’s weapons is not strictly tied to Hezbollah. It’s tied to all the mirroring of behavior that comes with it. People justifying their wrongdoings by the wrongdoings of others.

“Why should I pay taxes if Hezbollah supporters don’t pay taxes?”

“Why should I respect the law when Hezbollah supporters don’t?”

“Why would I pay customs when Hezbollah smuggles?”

Current political parties simply use Hezbollah as an excuse to justify their own wrongdoings. But two wrongs don’t make a right. And so we will find ourselves back to square one and far from the best case scenario. In fact there will never be another scenario to begin with, only a negative feedback loop if the elephant in the room is not tended to.