“Absolutely Not” and “Geo-Economics”
By: Syed Arslan Haider
Tags: Afghanistan, Pakistan, Geopolitics, Us China Trade, America

At a time when COVID-19 has posed a serious threat to the lives and livelihoods of humanity, leaders of G-7 countries- the US, the UK, France, Germany, France, Japan and Canada- held parleys in Cornwall, the southwestern city of England from 11–13 June. Although global issues- such as environment change and equitable supply of COVID-19 vaccines through the COVAX- got much attention from G-7 leaders, it seemed the “economic challenge” posed by China overwhelmed the whole summit. In the joint communique, all participating leaders pledged to combat China’s “ non-market economic practices’’. It is conspicuous that ‘geo-political’ war is being fought at the ‘geo-economics’ front.

It is a widely held belief that the US and its allies are at loggerheads with China mainly due to economic reasons, though ideological ones can’t be undermined. Sino-US relations are marked with “Thucydides Trap”, with China as an emerging power and the US as an established one. In such a tumultuous situation where ‘economic blocks’ are being formed, where does Pakistan stand? Historically, Pakistan remained in the US- block- from joining SEATO, CENTO to fighting ‘Jihad’ against the USSR on behalf of the US to fighting ‘war on terror’. It was due to the ‘security dilemma’ posed by India coupled with ‘economic fragility’ that Pakistan had tilted toward the US. However, this relation is marred with ‘convergences’ and ‘divergences’, with Pakistan remaining at a losing side. Even at the cost of men, more than 70,000 people died due to war-on- terror, and material, over $120 billion-dollars lost to Pakistan’s economy, the US rhetoric of ‘do more’ never receded. Now since Pakistan and China have not only established strong economic ties as well as convergence of ‘geo-strategic’ goals, it is evident that Pakistan has retracted back from the US and tilted toward China.

In response to the “Indo-Pacific” policy of the US, which aims at countering China’s economic-rise using regional countries- with India as a vanguard-, Pakistan is helping China advance its cross-continental project of economic integration- OBOR. Being a part of the OBOR- through the CPEC- Pakistan has joined hands with China to provide leverage to the latter country over the US in face of “Malacca Dilemma’. Pakistan would help China access the oil-rich Middle East- bypassing Malacca ‘choke point’. In this way, it seems Pakistan has foiled the effort to contain China by posing a threat to its pathway in the South China Sea. In response, China is investing in infrastructure projects in Pakistan. From power-generation projects to roads infrastructure, China is transforming Pakistan’s infrastructure. Moreover, China was one of the countries which lent its financial support to the Imran-led PTI government to replenish its foreign exchange reserves in the face of ‘Economic Hitman Ship’ of Ishaq Dar-led PMLN. Recalling Bill Clinton’s election slogan against G. bush that : “It’s the economy! Stupid”, it is conspicuous that interests of both China and Pakistan are inter-twinned.

At the time when Pakistan is bringing a paradigm shift in its policy from ‘geo-political’ to ‘geo-economics’, China’s role is pivotal in this regard.

Apart from economic interests, security and strategic interests are also vital. While the US is strengthening India militarily, thanks to BECA and COMCASA-, China is providing military assistance to Pakistan. It has provided nuclear submarines to Pakistan, not to mention assistance it provided in manufacturing the JF-17 which was used to down the plane of Abhinnandhan, an Indian pilot, in a dogfight on 26 February, 2019. Moreover, strategically, China’s support to Pakistan in the UN- on Kashmir and ‘terrorist’ outfits- has helped Pakistan a great deal. In contrast with growing US demand of ‘do more’, China commended Pakistan’s efforts to combat the menace of terrorism.

Whereas Pakistan facilitated the US sign ‘Doha Accord’ with the Taliban to exit Afghanistan and get rid of the costliest, deadliest and yet unsuccessful war, it was not because of pressure from the US. It was actually in Pakistan’s own interest to see a durable peace in Afghanistan in order to pursue its’ ‘geo-economics’’ agenda. It is ironic that on the one hand the US wants to run away from war-torn Afghanistan, on the other, it wants to keep its presence in the region. Why is the US demanding air-bases from Pakistan? Though, officially, it is concerned at the presence of ISIS in Afghanistan, a concern that Pakistan shares with it, and that it wants to attack it using Pakistan’s soil, the devil is in the details. Under the garb on surveillance on ISIS, the US wants to have an eye on China. If Afghanistan gains durable peace, though it remains a utopian idea keeping in view the ‘hasty’ withdrawal of the US and in absence of any tangible power-sharing formula among different Afghan factions, China is an ultimate beneficiary of it. Sharing its border with Afghanistan, it can extend its OBOR project further to Central Asian Republics using Afghanistan, posing a serious challenge to the C5+1. It would make the idea of containment of China ‘absurd’. Despite facing the ‘Malacca Dilemma’, China could advance its geo-strategic and geo-economic goals with fear of getting ‘choked’.

“Absolutely NO” to the US is definitely “Absolutely Yes” to China in a great ‘geo-ecomic’ game”.

Keeping in mind the above discussion, Imran Khan’s “absolutely not” demands serious attention. In response to a question by Axios that whether Pakistan would allow its airbases to the US to conduct its operations across the border in Afghanistan, PM Khan vociferously rejected the idea and said “absolutely not”. Though it is termed as a brave step of Khan, and rightly so, one can’ decouple his words with the strategic and economic interests of China. While it has long remained Khan’s stance that there is no military solution to Afghan problem and that Pakistan must decouple itself from the US-led ‘war on terror’, things are not as simple. Providing air bases to China is not only detrimental to Pakistan’s sovereignty, but also a notion that Pakistan has compromised its relations with China. Hence, his statement has clarified that in a game of economic hegemony between China and the US, Pakistan stands shoulder to shoulder with China.