The Syrian and Nagorno-Karabakh negotiations are part of a bigger process
By: Ruslan Trad
Tags: Syria, Nagorno Karabakh, Russia, Putin, Turkey

October 20, without much media hype, Turkish forces stationed in the Syrian city of Morek began withdrawing from the base. Morek is the most important Turkish post north of the Syrian government-held city of Hama and borders the rebel-controlled northwestern part of the country. The base is surrounded by Russian-backed military units and militias that are officially part of the Syrian army. They serve as a kind of buffer to avoid new clashes like at the beginning of the year. According to the latest figures, Turkey has reached an agreement with Russia to withdraw its units from several posts and two military bases that are currently surrounded by Bashar al-Assad’s forces. As Turkish forces withdrew from Morek, Ankara sent new troops to other posts in Idlib province to reinforce them. What this redeployment means and whether a new escalation is coming to Syria are among the questions asked not only by Syrians but also by international observers. Some of the answers should be sought not in Syria but the Caucasus.

The events have their logic, as the current situation began to develop in early 2020. The withdrawal of Turkish forces comes amid speculation about the launch of a new offensive by Russia and the Syrian government to seize the southern parts of Idlib province. Talks between Turkish and Russian officials in Ankara in September ended without an agreement. The main reason for the lack of a deal is believed to be Moscow’s proposal to Turkey to abandon some of the military posts it holds around Idlib province as part of agreements between the two countries after 2018 to establish the so-called buffer zone in Northwestern Syria.

On September 17, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said Turkey “failed to fulfill the March 5 agreement” on time, citing the continued presence of radical groups such as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and Hurras ad-Din. The comments were followed by some of the heaviest airstrikes by Russian aircraft this spring, with the Syrian army using rocket and artillery fire on several villages in southern Idlib. The latest agreement came after an attack by Assad’s forces in Idlib in late February. About 60 Turkish soldiers were killed in the airstrikes, and the entire offensive forced more than 2 million Syrians to flee their homes. In response, the Turkish army struck at Syrian army positions. The then-popular Bayraktar TB2 drones were then used, causing severe damage to Assad’s forces. As a result, the offensive was halted, and on March 5, a ceasefire agreement was reached with the mediation of Russia. As a result of the offensive by government forces, the rebels lost a lot of territory near the M5 strategic highway but regained it with the support of Ankara.

The current situation in Idlib is unsustainable for all sides. Damascus` regime remains determined to take over all the lost territory, while Ankara has made it clear it cannot accept more refugees. Turkey is already hosting 3,5 million Syrian refugees and is not interested in taking in more while experiencing serious economic problems. An offensive in Idlib by Assad’s forces and a takeover of northwestern Syria would certainly lead to a large influx of refugees to Turkey and will create pressure on the EU`s southern border.

Morek’s withdrawal also stands against Turkey’s current policy of not abandoning bases and observation posts in Idlib. Ankara’s refusal to withdraw from the besieged bases was an obstacle during the September talks with Russia. Although the sudden policy change may be the result of Ankara’s recognition of the reality that the bypassed bases will be an undue risk to Turkish troops there, when and if the conflict erupts again, it could also be the result of geopolitical clashes in other areas.

Let us move 1,300 km. northwest. […]

Read the full article in The New Arab — here.