More thoughts on the Suns-Mavs game
By: Yann Wong
Tags: NBA, Dallas Mavericks

I listened to a few Mavs podcasts on their reactions to the Mavs opening game (Suns 106 Mavs 102), and I gathered a few more thoughts:

“Every game matters” vs “Small sample size over-reactions”

1:05 left on the clock. Mavs down 3. Luka has shot 0–5 from 3 the whole game. The Suns give Luka some daylight. He takes a step-back 27-footer. It clangs. Mavs Twitter goes wild. Postgame, Luke himself admits it was bad shot selection and that he should have attacked the paint. Here’s the thing, I’m not sure I agree actually. If the Mavs were down 2 instead of 3 perhaps, but I thought it was a good clean look, and I want Luka to consistently take those 3s in that kind of situations. If we want him to drive every time (even when down 3), teams will pack the paint the same way they defend Ben Simmons or Giannis and overall the Mavs offense will get bogged down. If Luka never develops the confidence to shoot those 3s, we would not have the Clippers game winner last playoffs, and more importantly, we would have a worse offense overall, over a larger number of possessions per game, and over a large number of games. It was precisely for this reason why Sixers fans begged Simmons to attempt 3s even if he can’t hit them at a good clip.

Sure, we can argue about in-the-moment pros and cons. Luka hasn’t had a good shooting night. He doesn’t look like he was in peak physical conditioning. Despite so, all-night he has used his size to bully defenders in the paint. For purposes of eking out the win, “being aggressive” and attacking the paint sounds like the better decision. Perhaps. But long-term? I want Luka to be confident to shoot the ball, always believing that the next one will go in. I want Luka to not doubt himself, and know that Carlisle trusts his decision making. I want opponent defenses to be wary of that step-back 3, and open up the paint a bit more. I get that in the crowded west where only a few games can separate the 2nd seed to the 8th seed, every game matters. That’s a truism. But a win was never guaranteed even if he drove into the paint. And there are going to be some things which are important long term even if it comes in a loss.

We all bring cognitive biases into our basketball evaluations. An open Luka (just like an open Steph Curry or James Harden) will occasionally still miss shots. (Case in point: we just saw Devin Booker missed a wide open three.) But if Luka makes this one memorable shot, the narrative is completely totally different (just like how we remembered the game-winning shot against the Clippers). This is similar to how we remember Kobe— for all his heroic game winning shots, while conveniently forgetting his misses. Give Luka time, he will get in better game shape (by all means critique him for his lack of conditioning), and unless he still can’t hit a three after the next 5 games, I won’t be worried about Luka yet.

In the same vein, Brunson’s early 4th quarter surge to keep the Mavs close were a really feel good story, especially since it’s been a long time since we saw him on the court. But he made some really tough shots on iso possessions, but most of the time, when he takes these shots he will miss a good chunk of them. He made them this time and good for him, but that better not be part of the gameplan for the Mavs bench.

Give Carlisle time to figure out rotations and lineups

Talking about Brunson and the bench, one notable Mavs blogger was just laying it on Brunson on how terrible he was in the first 3 quarters. Which was completely fair despite how (proving my point above about narratives) his poor play was easily forgotten because of his 4th quarter heroics. Brunson, like Trey Burke, are scoring-inclined guards and they didn’t look too good playing together. The bench as a unit on the whole was quite disappointing despite their individual talent and collective depth.

To this I respond: guys, give Carlisle time. Remember how slow the Mavs started last year, and how long Carlisle needed to figure out his rotation (eventually settling on Seth Curry and Tim Hardaway in the starting lineup and banishing Delon Wright to the bench)? There’s a much shorter offseason this year, with a much shorter training camp, and some new intriguing pieces to incorporate, and not a lot of time to figure out synergies, fits and match-up options. I’ve been a Mavs fan long enough to trust Carlisle to do this right (even if he takes a while to figure it out).

In the meantime, what we should be looking for in these early games isn’t so much evidence of synergy, but how each player looks with their specific skillset and their confidence, especially the role players. To which I feel quite optimistic about, up and down the entire Mavs roster. Josh Richardson looked really good on defense, and his secondary ball-handling and playmaking will help Luka out a lot. Tim Hardaway hit a beautiful three, and then began to chuck heat checks, so that’s a mixed bag, but the Mavs offense was built last year upon Hardaway being a confident shooter, so its good to see that there still. Kleber being confident to take more 3-pointers is good, although it looked like a few of them were rushed and not in rhythm. That should improve, and his defense continues to look solid. Burke and Brunson, despite their deficiencies, are more than adequate guards off the bench and their scoring punch is sorely needed. Finny-Smith missed his shots, but defensively looks great now that primary assignments are given to Richardson. James Johnson didn’t hit a shot and had a flagrant foul, but I really liked his contributions on defense and a ball-handling big. Other than Dwight, I don’t see a bad player on this roster, and I’m optimistic about Josh Green, Wes Iwundu and Tyrell Terry being ready to contribute. I am quietly optimistic that this is the best roster the Mavs have seen since the 2011 championship run (assuming Kristaps Porzingis is able to stay healthy).

What do we do with the center position before Porzingis comes back?

Maybe Dwight will get a few more chances to redeem himself, but he looked really really bad in this game. Dwight always had weaknesses in rebounding, defending and shooting, but he gave the Mavs just enough with his rim rolling and being a lob threat on the court. If post surgery Dwight can’t do that anymore then he will likely be relegated to the second unit (where he has thrived before) or even out of the rotation altogether. But until Porzingis comes back, who should replace him?

Kleber seems the obvious answer, given his floor spacing and versatile defense. And I believe Kleber will indeed finish most games on the court. But I can see why Carlisle likes to put Kleber in the second unit, and let them have a bit more floor spacing for Brunson or Burke to operate when Luka is not playing, similarly to how Carlisle elected to play Finny-Smith with the second unit to provide them with much needed perimeter defense (hopefully Josh Green’s role soon).

How about Willie Cauley-Stein, and his impressive +14 plus/minus in 6 minutes (small sample size notwithstanding)? WCS is probably already the best rebounder on the Mavs, and he has some potential as a offensive rim-runner, defensive rim protector and (in his mind at least) a stretch big. Sounds great on paper, but Carlisle doesn’t trust WCS as much partially because he hasn’t had much time in the Mavs system (shortly before games were cancelled last season, and WCS didn’t play in the bubble), and partially because he doesn’t appear to be the best decision maker on the court. Time will tell if that improves and if some of us are too skeptical about WCS, but since this is really a stop-gap measure until Porzingis returns, so I don’t see the need to be too anxious.

An experiment I want to see is a small-ball bench unit with James Johnson at the 5, flanked by big physical wings. I also expect Boban to see some minutes the next game against Marc Gasol, and against any team which plays slower centers. We don’t have a great center rotation without Kristaps, but it’s not terrible, and certainly not as problematic as the Suns who play Damion Jones as the first big of the bench.

Be optimistic about our defense

A few podcasters noted that with an offensive showing that bad, the Mavs should have been down 20 points, but the fact that they were in it all the way to the end is something positive to take away from. Although some bad plays and decision making from the Suns were also the reason why, we should all be optimistic about how good the defense looked with Josh Richardson playing alongside Finny-Smith and Hardaway (and some fans were justifiably angry that Carlisle moved away from this wing lineup to keep the hot Brunson late in the fourth quarter). Kleber, WCS and James Johnson make the bench defense look good, and if Josh Green and Wes Iwundu are able to play themselves into the rotation, it will look even better. And let’s not forget the rim protecting force which is Porzingis when he returns. Good defense can cover a multitude of offensive sins, and I can’t remember a time the Mavs defensive pieces look this good since we had Shawn Marion and Tyson Chandler.

An opening night loss is disappointing, and a close loss even more so. But I am so so optimistic about the Mavs depth and defense this year, and if you’re hopeful (like I am) that Kristaps can stay on the court, we have a very special season coming up for us in 2021. Cheer up Mavs fans, this is gonna be a fun ride.