Date: 201701
Local time of day: 0601-1200
Location: SFO.Airport, CA
Light: Daylight
Aircraft: Medium Large Transport
Operator: Air Carrier
Operating under: Part 121
Flight plan: IFR
Mission: Passenger
Flight phase: Cruise
Airspace: Class A ZOA
ATC / advisory: Center ZOA
Reporter organization: Air Carrier
Reporter function: Captain; Pilot Not Flying
Reporter qualification: Flight Crew Air Transport Pilot (ATP)
Human factors: Other / Unknown
Anomaly: Deviation / Discrepancy - Procedural Published Material / Policy; Inflight Event / Encounter Fuel Issue
Detector: Person Flight Crew
When detected: In-flight
Result: Air Traffic Control Issued New Clearance; Flight Crew Diverted
Contributing factors: Airport; Company Policy
Primary problem: Airport

Narrative: Flight was dispatched to SFO with required amount of fuel on board. An alternate was not listed on the release because weather conditions met the '1-2-3' rule and was not required. Approximately 30 miles prior to intercepting the SERFR waypoint on the SERFR2 arrival into SFO ATC gave us direct to NRRLI; shortly after we received this and complied with the clearance ATC advised us that they had holding instructions and asked if we were ready to copy. They instructed us to hold at SERFR as published at FL300 with leg and speed lengths at our discretion and gave us an Expect Further Clearance (EFC) time of XB15Z with current time of XA30Z. After programming the hold we started to calculate our Burn Alternate Reserve (BAR) fuel. We had 800 LBS required from SERFR to runway; 500 LBS for the missed; and 2450 LBS for our reserve. We determined that our minimum fuel for before needing to leave the hold was 3750 LBS. I text dispatch with our hold location; Fuel On Board (FOB); and EFC time and didn't hear anything back in what I thought was a timely manner; so I decided to call on ARINC to find out what BAR number they had determined. FOB at this point was 4700 LBS and we were burning about 2400 LBS per hour at QRH hold speed of 207 KTS and determined that we could only hold until XB00z and not the EFC of XB15Z. We relayed this to ATC and they asked what our alternate was. I told them we didn't have one but that I would talk to company and determine one.When communication was established; the dispatcher sent only the top part of the computer flight plan to our ACARS which was difficult to read. He then sent it to our printer but it was difficult for me to determine what BAR number that they had determined because they had not used the BAR method that we had been taught in training. I saw that they had added in OAK as the alternate and that it would take 850 LBS to get there. I subbed the 850 into the BAR equation in place of the missed and came up with new number of 4100 LBS; I amended the release and asked ATC if we were going to get a relief on the EFC time to which they replied that it probably wouldn't happen. At this point we were at 4200 LBS FOB and I told them that our alternate was OAK and that we needed to go there now and I declared to them that we were at Minimum Fuel. They cleared us direct to OAK and then direct EMZOH and the EMZOH3 arrival. As we approached EMZOH ATC started to descend us for the arrival when dispatch sent a message to change the alternate to SJC. I responded and told them unable due to our fuel. I put SJC into the fix info page and it showed a bearing of 104 degrees and 42 miles. We were currently on a north easterly heading and I made the decision that I did not to turn around to go to SJC if they were landing north when I could go straight to OAK landing north. We touched down at OAK with 2700 LBS on the fuel quantity gauge. We had several passengers wanting to deplane in OAK and I conferred with an on duty chief pilot about what to do. Most of the passengers that had carry-on luggage decided to deplane and I spoke with the chief pilot and gate agent. We added fuel and re-dispatched to SFO without further complications.The only suggestion that [I] could say is that SFO is an airport that experiences large delays because the airport does not have the capacity to support the amount of aircraft arriving and departing when they experience anything other than VFR conditions and that skews our new historical fuel reference numbers used in fuel planning and could cause further potential diversions downline because of unrealistic holds placed on us by ATC because we simply do not have to extra fuel to meet ATC's requirements.




Synopsis: Air Carrier Captain was put into holding unexpectedly and determined the aircraft didn't have sufficient reserve fuel for the Expect Further Clearance time given. No alternate airport was included on the flight plan so Dispatch amended the flight plan and they diverted to an alternate.