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DOCUMENTS "COM"
COM (88)656
V ol.1988/0219

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COMISSÃO DASCOMUNIDADES EUROPEIAS
COM(88 )656 final
Bruxelas ,14deDezembro de1988
COMUNICAÇÃO DACOMISSÃO AOCONSELHO
sobre
"OProblema doEfeito deEstufa eaComunidade "
e
Projecto de
RESOLUÇÃO DOCONSELHO
relativa aoefeito deestufa eaComunidade
(Apresentados pela Comissão )
j j

ComunicaçSo daComissSo aoConselho
sobre
"0PROBLEMA DOEFEITO DEESTUFA
EACOMUNIDADE "

-2-
ÍNDICE
Na Paginas
RESUMO DEEXECUÇÃO ECONCLUSÕES A-C 4-11
I. UMAINTRODUÇÃO AOPROBLEMA DOEFEITO DE
ENTUFA
Oque éoefeito deestufa resumidamente 1-2 12-13
Gases com efeito deestufa :fontes de
emissão etendências daconcentração
atmosférica 3-10 13-20
Potenciais consequências climáticas do
aumento dasconcentrações dos gases com
efeito deestufa 11-13 20-2 "
Potenciais impactes das alterações
climáticas 14-LI 27-22
II.0ENQUADRAMENTO E .ASPERSPECTIVAS
INTERNACIQNÁIS
Introdução 22 32-23
Aconferência mundial sobre
emtransformação "(Toronto ,
Junho de1988 )
Evoluções futuras possfvels
III .ANALISE DASACÇOES POSSÍVEIS
Introdução
Actividades deinvestigação
Acção preventiva"AAtmosfera
27-30 de
23 33-38
24-28 38-40
29-31 40-41
32-36 42-44
37-42 44-48

-3-
Na Págir.a
AdaptaçSo planeada 43-45 48-49
CooperaçSo com ospaíses emdesenvolvimento 46 49-50
IV. CONCLUSÕES DACOMISSÃO 47-58 . 51-54
ANEXO
AConferência de "Villach "
(Villach-Xustrla ,9-15 deOutubro de1985 ) A 55
0Simpósio daCEE sobre "CO2 eoutros
gases com efeito deestufa*'
(Bruxelas ,3-5 deNovembro de1986 ) B 5?
Asreuniões detrabalho sobre "Políticas
emdesenvolvimento emresposta àsalterações
climáticas "(Villach-Áustria ,28deSetembro -
-2deOutubro de1987 eBellagio-Itália ,
9 ■-13deNovembro de1987 ) C 58-60
0relatório daComissão Brundtland D 61
Aresolução doParlamento Europeu E 61

-4-
RESUMO BEEXECUÇÃO ECONCLUSÕES
A. RESUMO
A.1. Introdução
Em19deJulho de1988 ,aComissão decidiu criar umgrupo
interserviços destinado aapresentar ,atémeados deNovembro de
1988 ,ideias preliminares relativamente apossíveis acçces
daComunidade respeitantes ao "problema doefeito dees:u
fa".
0 .objectivo deste documento é,combase notrabalho dogrupo acima mencionado ,
neceruna perspectlva geral detalproblema eapresentar conclus3es erecomenda ¬
ções relativas atrabalhos posterior aempreender ímedia -
tamente ,acções atomar urgentemente eacções relativas aopossí ¬
vel papel daComunidade Europeia nodebate internacional
deste assunto complexo ,;
A.2. 0problema doefeito deestufa
A,2.1 .Asactuais condições climáticas naTerra são determinadas ,
emlarga medida ,pela composição daatmosfera .
Vapor deágua ,dio'xido decarbono (C02),metano (CH4),õxi
dodeazoto (NgO),ozono (03)e,desde hipouco tempo,CFC,armazenam
naatmosfeha parte daradiação solar incidente -através -daabsorção
departe daradiação deinfravermelhos que éemitida pela
Terra para equilibrar aradiação solar incidente .
A.2.2 .0homem está amodificar ^aumataxa inaudita ,acomposição
daatmosfera .Asconcentrações detodos osgases que exer
cem umefeito deestufa estão aaumentar devido àinter ¬
ferência das actividades humanas com osciclos biogeequí -
mlcos detais substâncias .Adimensão detais modificações
ésignificativa emtermos depotenciais alterações climátí
cas .
tdoconhecimento actual que osbalanços térmicos terres ¬
tres estão aser modificados eque seseguirão inevitável
mente algumas alterações climáticas ,que dependem dadi¬
mensão detais modificações .

-5-
A.2.3.0mais importante gáscomefeito deestufa êoCOgcujas
emissões resultam ,sobretudo ,daqueima decombustíveis
fo^seeis (5Gtor .decarbono /ano *),queima delenha edeccm
posição debiomassa dasflorestas associada àdesflores -
taçao (0,5-2 Gton decarbono por ano)»
0COgéactualmente responsável porcerca deumpoucc mais
de50 Jédoefeito deestufa .Cerca de25 %deste efeitc é
devido aosCFGutilizados emdiversas aplicações tais como
aerosóis ,latas depulverizaçSo , arcondicionado ,frigo ¬
ríficos ,solventes ,empacotamentos ,etc .0restante éatri
buível aometano (CH4 )proveniente dogado ,dos arrozais ,
daexploração degásnatural ,daqueima ineficiente debio
massa ecarvão ,aoõxido deazoto (NgO )proveniente dacom
bustao decombustíveis fosseis edautilização defertili ¬
zantes azotados eainda doozono troposférico resultante
deprocessos fotoquímicos naatmosfera poluída .Asemis ¬
sões dosgases comefeito deestufa têmaumentado sigr.i -
ficativamer.te nas últimas décadas .
A.2.4,Combase nos resultados dosmodelos climáticos globais ,pode con¬
cluir -sequeaTerra sofrerá umaumento datemperatura su
perficial média entre 1,5°C e4,5°C seaconcentração ccs
gases comefeito deestufa atingir 0dobro daconcentração
destes gases naépoca pré-industrial .Sesemantiverem as
tendências actuals ,prevê -seque isto aconteça antes de2D50 - .
A,2.5 ,Osactuais modelos climáticos náo sãocapazes defornecer
uma avaliação regional segura daspotenciais alterações cli'
mátic&e quecorrespondem àsubida média datemperatura da
superfície terrestre acima mencionada .
Avaliações grosseiras indicam que asubida datemperatura
naEuropa pode sermais elevada que amédia mundial .
A.2.6,Osimpactos indlrectos detais alterações climáticas pedem
ser resumidos doseguinte modo :
-uma subida donível domar (de30cma1,5mpara umacue
cimento daordem dos1,5a 4,5°C );
-umaredução dosgelos marinhos ;
-umaredução dosrecursos hídricos emalgumas regiões ;
-modificações daprodutividade agrícola ;
-impactos sobre asaiíde humana eimpactos ecológicos .
*1GTons =10^toneladas =10_00 ._milhoes _detoneladas

-6-
A,3, Oenauadramentc ea»perspectiva »internacional »
A.3.1 ,Na"Conferência Internacional sobre aavaliação epapel cio
C02edeoutros gases oomefeito deestufa nasvariações
climáticas eimpactos associados "(Villach ,9a 15deOutu
bro de1985 }chegou -se aumconsenso científico relativa -
mente aosfactoras básicos doproblema doefeito deestufa
referido nos pontos anteriores .
A.3.2.AsoonclusÕes daConferência deVillach foram posteriormen
tedesenvolvidas numaimpdelo daCEEemBruxelas (3a5.de
Novembro de1986 )emmatéria de"COg eoutros gases com
efeito daestufa :impactos climáticos eassoolados "er.u-
mareunião detrabalho realizada emBellagio (9a13de
Novembro de1987 )relativa ás"Políticas emdesenvolvimen ¬
toemresposta àaalterações climáticas ".
A,3.3.0problema doefeito deestufa fci igualmente considerai ;;
noâmbito dotrabalho daComissão Brundtland .Seguír.do as
recomendações dessa Comissão ,realizou -seemToronto (27
a30deJunho de1988 )uma Conferência Mundial sobre 1^
atmosfera emtransformação ,implicações para asegurança
global ".Foram nomeadamente recomendadas nessa conferên ¬
cia asseguinte,' .;accões :
-Ratificar oProtocolo deMontreal relativo àsSubstâncias
queReduzem aCamada deOzono .0Protocolo deverá ser re¬
visto em1990 nòsentido cieassegurar um»•“tqua*e ;'-total elimina ¬
çãodasemissões deCFCcompletamente halogenados atéao
ano 2000 .
-Estabelecer políticas energéticas destinadas areduzir asemissões
deCQg eoutros gases vestigiais demodo adiminuir osris
/• ■cos deumfuturo aquecimento global .
Reduzir asemissões deCOgemcerca de20%relativamente
aosníveis de1988 atéaoanode2005 ,como umobjectivo
.■global inicial nasnações industrializadas .
-Estabelecer objectivos para melhoramentos daeficiência
energética queestão dlrectamente relacionados com asre
duçÕes deCCg eoutros gases comefeito deestufa .
-Encetar odesenvolvimento deumaconvenção global .
-Criar umFundo para aAtmosfera Mundial ,
2.3,4 .ija 'possível resultado -acurto prazo dasactívidades
internacionais acima mencionadas é*•â-’ábéftura ,jáem1989 ,
doprocesso depreparação deum acordo relativo -aoprobiema
4b«feito deestufa ,incluindo eventualmente protocolos sobr «alimitaria

-7-
A.3.5.Ospróximos acontecimentos importantes nosentido desse ecoa ¬
do serão provavelmente :
-areunião detrabalho internacional emmatéria delegis ¬
lação epolítica arealizar emOttawa noinício de1553 ;
-umaconferência política aelevado nível aconvocar r.o
Outono de1990 pelo Ministério doAmbiente dosPaíses
Baixos ;
-aSegunda Conferência Mundial sobre Clima ,Genebra ,Jur.ho
de1990;
-aConferência Intergovernamental emmatéria dedesenvol ¬
vimento sustentável em1992 ,quepoderã constituir o
acontecimento culminante .
A.4.Possíveis acçães
A.4.1 .Aspolíticas queabordam oproblema doefeito deestufa
podem incluir aoções preventivas e/oudeadaptação .
A,4.2.Aacção preventiva éaquela que temporobjectivo aredução
dasemissões des gases com efeito deestufa ,demodo are¬
duzir osefeitos previsíveis .
Nocaso doCG-»asáreas deintervenção mais importantes
são osector energético ,deummodo geral ,easilvicul ¬
tura nas regiões tropicais .
Constituem exemplos demedidas nodomínio daenergia quepoderiam
contribuir para reduzir asemissões deCOg :
-oaumento daeficiência energética (tanto noabasteci ¬
mento como noconsumo );
>• -optar por -combustíveis commenor teor decarvão ;
-promover fontes deenergia renováveis eautilização susten ¬
tável debiomassa ;
-promover aenergia nuclear segura .
Apromoção detecnologias energéticas inovadoras para apoiar
estas medidas reveste -se departicular importância .
Alongo prazo ,osnovos sistemas energéticos nãobaseades
nocarbono poderiam prestar uma contribuição *significativa para
aredução dasemissões deCOg *

-8-
i,Eobvio que r.em todas asmedidas acima mencionadas tem a
mesma eficácia .Além disso ,énecessária umacuidadosa ava
liação dasuaviabilidade económica .
Aspolíticas nodomínio dasilvicultura devem procurar in¬
verter asactuais tendências nosentido dadesf lorestaçãc ,
especialmente nasregiões equatoriais .Isto exigiria ,em
especial ,apromoção desubstitutos para aler.ha utilizada
massivamente como combustível nessas regiões eapromoção
depráticas agrícolas sustentáveis demodo aque aexpan ¬
sãoagrícola naoenvolva aqueimarem larga escala ,deflo¬
restas para desbravar terrenos .
A.4.3.Sãomenos fáceis deidentificar asacções possíveis noser.ti _
dodediminuir asemissões degases comefeito deestufa
tais como oCH4 eoNgO ,dadas asincertezas querodeiam
asemissões destas substâncias .
Podem ser explorados osseguintes assuntos :
.-Minimizar asperdas deCH4naextracção ,transporte e
utilização degásnatural .
-Minimizar asperdas deCH4provenientes dosaterros .
-Minimizar asemissões deN2Oresultantes daqueima de
combustíveis fosseis .
-Estudar possíveis melhoramentos dagestáo pecuária ,cul
tivo doarroz egestão delagoas tendo como objectivc a
redução dalibertação deCH4 .
-Estudar possíveis práticas degestSo defertilização aper
feiçoadas para reduzir alibertação deNgOproveniente da
utilização defertilizantes azotados .
^A.4,4 .Nocaso dosCFC ,deverá serviável aeliminação quase total
dasemlssSes deCFG até aoano 2000 pormeio darestrição da
produção erecaptura ,reciclagem oudestruição dosCFCnos
produtos existentes .
A.4.5.Poder&o virasernecessárias medidas deadaptação (como
asnecessárias para evitar oudiminuir osdanos causados
pelas alterações climáticas eimpactos associados )desti ¬
nadas atratar osefeitos que ,apesar dasacçÕes depre
venção ,não épossível evitar .
Napresente fase ,nao épossível pormenorizar medidas deadaptação quepoderão vir asernecessárias naComunidade
devido àausência dçunaavaliação regional segura dos irr.pac

-9-
Deummodo geral ,.aadaptação relativa àsubida donível
domarpoderia incluir diques marítimos /barreiras concra
inundações ,,programas nacionais deseguros contra inunda
çSes ,construção dereservatórios (para combater oaurr.en
todasalinidade ),abandono deregiões desenvolvidas em
zonas deCota baixa ,transferência daspopulações para
fora doslocais vulneráveis ,prntecção dosecossistemas
costeiros .
Sãonecessários mais estudos para identificar aspossíveis
medidas deadaptação emoutros sectores ,tais como aagri ¬
cultura easilvicultura .
B.^ CONCLUSÕES RELATIVAS AOESTADO DOSCONHECIMENTOS SOBRE 0PROBLEMA DOEFEITO DEESTUFA
B.l .Acomposição' daatmosfera terrestre está asermodificada ,
deummodo significativo ,pelas actividades humanas .
Combase nosresultados dosmodelos climáticos globais ,os
cientistas concordam queumaduplicação daconcentração
atmosférica deC02equivalente conduzirá aumaumento da
y
temperatura superficial média daordem dos 1,5 a4,5°C .E
provável queseverifique esta duplicação atémeados dc
próximo século .
Deacordo comosdados climatéricos ,aresultante alteração
dascondições climáticas médias globais situar -se-á"para
além dagama declimas queexistiram durante asépocas his
• tóricas passadas edurante asépocas geólogicas recentes ."
B.2 .Nomomento presente ,osdiversos impactos detais alterações
/ climáticas e-assuas consequências sócio -económicas nacpo­
demseravaliadas pormenorizadamente deummodo seguro .Con
tudo ,ostrabalhos preliminares efectuados nesta matéria
indicam queOBrInros oSo slnrnrinn temente filrvfvion oquenn
consequências directas eindirectas saopotencialmente
disruptivas .
B.3 .Osrecentes acontecimentos internacionais ■'"■tornaram
presente o debate mundial deste problema .Ccns
tatou -seclaramente quechegou aaltura dedesenvolver es¬
tratégias viáveis enquanto seaceleram osesforços dein¬
vestigação .

*10
c,
c.o .
C.l .
C.2.
C.3,CONCLUSSES DACOMISSflO
AsprlncipEls conclusões
aquiresumidas .NoCapitulo
umaapresentação completa.desv relatõrio encontram -se
IVdeste documento éfornecida
AComunidade deve aplicar naíntegra aConver.cao deVier.a
para aprotecção dacamada deozono eoProtocolo deMontreal
relativo àssubstâncias que reduzem acamada deczono edeve
participar actlvamente narenegociação desse Protocole .
AComunidade deve acolher favoravelmente oinício das dis
cussÕes sobre aspossibilidades deumacordo internacional
para afuture protecçlo ''daatmosfera .Deve encontrar -sepreparada
para prestar umacontribuição .importante àpreparação enego ¬
ciação desse acordo quepoderia incluir adefinição ce
objectivos específicos para limitar asemissões degases
comefeito deestufa bem como adefinição demedidas e /
programas deredução deemissões . . ..e'y/
Porconseguinte ,aComi3sSo tomaré a ■1nic1at1ve^
de lançar umampio programa deestudo dasopções
políticas para nvallar aexequibilidade ,custos eresulta ¬
dosprováveis dasmedidas possíveis para reduzir asemis ¬
sões degases comefeito deestufa .Osresultados detal
programa forneceriam contribuições uteis para odebate
internacional desta questão .
Asprincipais áreas detalprograma devem ser :
-identificação eavaliação técnica demedidas etecnolo ¬
gias eusceptíveis dereduzir asemissões degases co.r .
efeito deestufa ;
-análise dasrepercussões eimpactos econõmicos ,indus ¬
triais ,energétioos ,sociais einstitucionais dasmedidas etecncla
glas possíveis acima mencionadas ;.
-cenários daspolíticas deestruturação eavaliação re¬
ferentes espcr «!nlmonte non ptu/.r.fvn lr.nlvn ;:cr.l.rni.ógi oos
para olimite dasemissões deCOg .

-definição deumquadrodeanálisededecisões
-identificação eavaliação depolíticas deadaptação .
AComunidafie e03seus Estados-msmbros deverr ,teragcra em
conta nas suas decisões noâmbito daspolíticas (relaciona
das com aenergia oucomoutros sectores relevantes para
este assunto )oproblema dasalterações climáticas poten
ciais associadas aoefeito deestufa .Umestudo antecipado
deste problema poderia evitar riofuturo custos mals eleva
dos .
Alémdisto,aComissãopromoveráacçõesparareforçarealargarosesforços
nodomíniodaseconomias deenergia,melhoramento daeficiênciaenergética ,
desenvolvimento denovasfontesenergéticas ,utilização datecnologia nu¬
clearsegura.Deveseratribuída umaelevadaprioridade aodesenvolvimento
epromoçãoacelerados detecnologias Inovadoras àescalacomercialnestes
domínios.
Nãorestamdúvidasquetaisacçõessejustificarridevidoâ$necessidades em
termosdeenergiaeambiente,independentemente dasincertezas querodeiam
algunsaspectoscientíficos doproblemadoefeitodeestufa.
Seriadeespecialimportância apossibilidade dequantificar oMelhoramento
daeficiânciaenergética emtermosdereduçõesdeCOg.
4
AComunidade deve apoiar programas deinvestigação vigorosos sobre todos
os aspectos doproblema doefeito deestufa edeve proporcionar novas
tecnologias energéticas dotadas deumpotencial para limitar asemissões
»
deGO.,.

12-
I. AWINTRODUCTION TOTHE 6REENH0USE ISSUE
What the"greenhouse effect *isinshort
1.Theclimate conditions weexperience onearth aredue/among other
things ,tothepresence oftheatmosphere around itandtoitspresent
composition .Without theatmosphere /theaverage surface temperature of
theearth /which ispresently ofaround 15°C /would beaslowas-18°C .
Infact /theheat balance oftheearth /which receives radiation from
thesunandreflects orre-emits itinto thespace /islargely governed
bythecomposition oftheatmosphere .
Firstly water vapour /mostly concentrated inthe lower atmosphere /isan
effective absorber ofboth incoming solar andoutgoing infrared earth 's
radiation andcontributes very significantly todetermine theaverage
surface temperature ofthe earth .
Moreover /other substances such ascarbon dioxide (COg)/methane (CH^)/
nitrous oxide (^0)andchlorof luorocarbons (CFCs )have theproperty of
being nearly transparent toincoming radiation from the sunbutto
retain some oftheenergy re-emitted bytheearth aslong wavelenght
infra-red radiation .
Ozone also contributes totheabsorption ofinfra-red radiation emitted
(1)bytheearth .
Theoverall outcome ofthis mechanism isthat part ofthe radiant energy
coming from the sun istrapped inthe lower atmosphere .
2.Thepresent scientific knowledge allows ustoconclude that any
significant change intheatmospheric concentrations oftheabove
mentioned substances would result inachange oftheglobal thermal
balance ofthe earth .
^Stratospheric ozone (the"ozone layer")isastrong absorber of
ultraviolet radiation from the sun .Moreover ozone contributes tothe
absorption ofinfrared radiation from theearth .Tropospheric ozone
contributes therefore totrap heat inthe lower atmosphere .Anychange
inthe vertical distribution ofozone would contribute toaffect the
thermal balance ofthe earth .

-13-
Inparticular anincrease intheatmospheric concentrations ofCO.,,
CFCs,CH^,^0,tropospheric ozone ,which areoften called "greenhouse
gases ",would result inmore heat tobetrapped inthe lower troposphere
andthen insome warming andpossible associated climate changes
depending onthesize ofsuch greenhouse gases concentration increase .
This phenomenon isusually referred toasthe "greenhouse effect "
because itsbasic mechanism issimilar tothat inagreenhouse where
incoming radiation energy from thesun ispartly transformed toinfrared
radiation bytheground ,warms theairandisthen retained bytheglass
from escaping again .
greenhouse gases :emission sources andatmospheric concentration trends
3.Theatmospheric concentrations ofallmost important greenhouse gases
have increased over recent times and are still increasing .
4.Incase ofcarbon dioxide (CO^):
a.Emission sources :
Most ofanthropogenic C0_emissions areduetofossil fuels burning
* . .*
(around 5Gtons ofcarbon peryear ).Moreover asignificant
contribution comes from burning ofwood anddecomposition of
biomass related todeforestation (uncertain quantity ,most likely in
therange 0,5-2Gtons ofcarbon peryear corresponding toarate
ofdeforestation inthetropical regions of10to20millions ha/y).
CO2world yearly emissions fromburning offossil fuels have
increased in25years ,since 1960 ,from around 2,5Gtofcarbon to
more than 5Gtofcarbon in1985 .
Coal andoilgive bynowanalmost equal contribution toemission
with slightly more than 2Gtofcarbon each ,followed bygaswith
less than 1Gtofcarbon peryear .
Itisestimated that since onecentury ,around 170Gtofcarbon have
been emitted ,ofwhich around 100Gtinthe last 25years .
*1Gton *109tons =1000million tons

-14
Theshare ofCC^emissions peryear from fossil fuels fordifferent
parts ofthe world and its recent evolution isshowed inthe
following table :
COgemissions inmillion tons ofcarbon /y
and asXofworld total
1950 1965 I1980
I Region |Mt/y* I X Mt/y* IX IMt/y*IX I
|North America I723 I44,7 I1003 I32,1 |1380|26,7 I
IURSS andEastern Europe I291 I18,0 I750 124,0 |12511 24,2 I
(China I23 I1,4 I178 15,7 1439 |8,5 I
IWestern Europe I379 I23,4 I643 120,6 !853 |16,5 !
|Japan ,Australia I*5 I2,8 I137 14,4 |300 )5,8 I
iDeveloping Countries I92 I5*7 I250 18,0 |631 112,2 I
lOthers (worldwide gas I63 I3*9 I163 15,2 !310 |6,0 I
Iflaring ,bunkers ) I ! ! 1 1 1 I
I
|World total
II I
I1618 I
I !100I
I3126
!1 1
1loo i
1 11
51701100
II
I
I
Source :"Atmosphere carbon dioxide andtheglobal carbon cycle "
USD0E/ER-0239 ,edited byJ.R. Trabalka ,Dec .1985
*absolute figures arerounded tonext million ton .
Thefigures above showthedramatic increase ofCC^emissions inall
regions oftheworld from 1950 to1980 .
The share ofthe total world emissions ofChina anddeveloping
countries hassignificantly increased inthesame period duei.a .to
thedemographic trends inthese regions .

-15-
Thetrends ofCOjworld emission from different fossil fuels forthe
period 1950-1982 areshown innext figure ,(source :USOOE/ER-0239
report referred toabove ):
5000[ ' 1 ..I.
«*• *•–
4000_ ^ ** -
3000 _
|îooo
s800:J? î
1600Н
£Υ ·>X400Γ ..Xo .»»'•/° -°Py
'y200-S
y•y*
100u_ i_ i_ i_
1950 1960 1970 1980
YearS2000
o1000U
800\-
Thesteep increase ofyearly COgemissions from oilandnatural gas
has been slowed down oreven reversed after the first oil crisis ,
thus reflecting theworldwide energy policy efforts torestrict the
use ofoil,byimprovements inenergy efficiency andanincreased
useofnuclear energy and/orsolid fuels .Consequently CO^
emissions from coal have increased after the first oilshock ,from a
yearly rate of1,72% to2,59% upto1982 .
Emission data for 1985 show thefollowing contribution from various
fossil fuels :
IFuel11985CC>2emissions in|
I 1miIlion tons carbon /y|
Igas 1 807 1
Ioil 1 2189 I
Icoal I 2181 I
Igasflaring I 52 I
ITotal I 5229 I
Source :I.Mintzer ,WRI,1988

-16-
Percapita CO^emissions from fossil fuels fordifferent countries
areshown inthefollowing table ,referred to1982 :
I
ICountry |Per
Iofcapita C(>2emissions (tons
:arbon per inhabitant )I
I
I United States | 4,9 I
I German Dem.Rep . | 4,9 I
I Canada | 4,4 I
I Czechoslovakia | 4,1 I
I Australia | 3,9 I
I Soviet Union | 3,3 I
I Poland | 3,0 I
I Belgium | 3,0 I
I Germany ,Fed .Rep .| 2,9 I
I United Kingdom | 2,5 !
I Netherlands ¡ 2,5 I
I France | 2,0 I
I Japan | 1,9 I
I Italy I 1,5 I
I Spain I 1,4 I
I China | 0,5 I
I Brazil | 0,3 I
I India | 0,1 I
I World average | 1,0 I
Calculated from :Smith ,I.M. (1988 ):Ct^andclimate change ;
Draft technical review ,EIA Coal Research ,London ,andUN
statistical data
b.Atmospheric concentrations trends :
Since 1960 to1985 theaverage yearly atmospheric concentration of
COghasincreased from315to345ppm.*
There isevidence that thepre-industrial concentration ofthis gas
wasaround 275-285 ppm.Therate ofconcentration increase forCt^
hasaccelerated inrecent years :itwas anaverage of1ppmper
year inthe70ties and isbynowabout 1,5ppmperyear .
*
1ppm =part permillion =0,0001%

17-
C02concentration increase isdetermined bytheeffect ofmanmade
emissions ,mostly duetofossil fuel burning anddeforestation ,on
theglobal carbon cycle :natural carbon sinks (mainly theoceans *
andvegetation )arenolonger sufficient tobalance such increasing
emissions andthis leads tomore C02stored intheatmosphere .
5.Incase ofchlorof luorocarbons (CFC's):
a.Emissions sources :
CFC'sareman-made chemicals used inavariety ofapplications such
asaerosol spray cans ,airconditioning ,refrigerators ,solvents ,
packaging ,etc .
b.Atmospheric concentration trends
Theatmospheric concentration ofCFC-11 andCFC-12 atfour sites
widely dispersed intheworld ranged from 0,21 to0,23ppb*and0,37
to0,39 ppbrespectively in1985 .
Even ifthepresent atmospheric concentration ofthese substances is
byseveral orders ofmagnitude lower than that ofC02,onehasto
note that the rate ofgrowth ofsuch concentration hasbeen much
higher than that ofC02,around 5-7% peryear ,theefficiency in
trapping heat ofsome ofthem is10,000 higher than C02'ona
molecule bymolecule basis andtheresidence time intheatmosphere
ofsome ofthese substances isextremely long (uptomore than 100
years ).
*
1ppb=part perbillion *0,0000001%

-18-
6.Incase ofmethane (CH,) :
a.Emission sources :
Present man-made emissions ofCH^comemainly from livestock ,rice
paddy fields ,natural gasexploitation ,burning ofbiomass andcoal .
Natural emissions from biota arealso relevant andtheoverall CH,4
cycle isnotwell known .
Rough estimates give thefollowing emission levels forthevarious
sources (expressed inmillion tons ;therange indicated inbrackets
shows thedispersion ofestimates made byvarious authors ):
Natural Sources (million tons peryear ):
Enteric fermentation (wild animals )5(+/- 3)
Wetlands (swamps ,etc.) 110 (+/- 50)
Lakes 4(+/- 2)
Tundra 3(+/- 2)
Oceans 10(+/- 3)
Termites and other insects 25(+/- 20)
Other 40(+/- 40)
Han-Made Sources (million tons peryear ):
Enteric fermentation (cattle ,etc.)75(+/- 35)
Rice paddies 70(+/- 30)
Biomass burning 70(+/- 40)
Natural gasandmining losses 50(+/- 25)
Solid Waste 30(+/- 30)
(Source :USDept ,ofEnergy -"APrimer onGreenhouse Gases "-
D0E/NBB0083 -March 88.)

-19-
b.Atmospheric concentration trends :
Atmospheric concentration ofCH^hasincreased since oldtimes (from
0,7ppmbefore 1700 A.D. to1,54 and1,68 ppm inthesouthern and
northern hemisphere respectively ,in1983 ).Average yearly increase
over 30years from 1951 to1981 hasbeen of1,1% .
Incase ofnitrous oxide (N^O):
a.Emission sources :
Man-made emissions of^0aremainly duetocombustion offossil
fuels andbiomass .Agricultural soils (both natural andfertilized )
seem also togive asignificant contribution .
Natural emissions are due toterrestrial and ocean biota .
Again thequantitative evaluation ofemissions from various sources
ismost difficult .Itisestimated that the overall emissions are
asfollows (expressed inmillion tons ;the range indicated in
brackets shows thedispersion ofestimates made byvarious
authors ):
Natural Sources (million tons ofNperyear ):
Oceans and estuaries 2.0 (+/- 1.0 )
Natural soils 6.5 (+/- 3.5 )
Man-Made Sources (million tons ofNperyear ):
Fossil fuel combustion 4.0 (+/- 1.0 )
Biomass burning 0.7 (+/- 0.2)
Fertilized soils
Cultivated naturai soils0.8 (+/- 0.2 )
1.5 (+/- 0.5 )
(Source :USDept ,ofEnergy -"APrimer onGreenhouse Gases "
D0E/NBB0083 -March 88.)

-20-
b.Atmospheric concentration trends :
N^Oatmospheric concentration hasincreased from apre-industrial
290ppbtoabout 300ppb in1985 .Thepresent rate ofincrease is
around 0,25% peryear .
8.Itistobeunderlined that thepresent increase inconcentration of
greenhouse gases isduetotheinterference ofhuman activities with the
natural cycles .Yetthere aresignificant uncertainties concerning the
quantitative relationships between emissions ofgreenhouse gases andthe
observed increase oftheir atmospheric concentrations .
9.Moreover itisnotpossible atthis stage togive reliable forecasts of
future emission trends because ofthewide range offactors influencing
those trends .However scenarios maybedeveloped using different
assumptions .
10.Itisreasonable toexpect further andaccelerating increase inthe
atmospheric concentrations ofsome greenhouse gases over thenext 50
years .
Potential climate consequences ofincreasing greenhouse gases concentrations
11.Theobserved andtheexpected increases inatmospheric concentrations of
greenhouse gases (andthen theincrease intheheat quantity which is
trapped inthelower atmosphere )undoubtedly will result insome warming
andpossible associated climate changes .
However ,very significant uncertainties subsist about theshape andthe
rate ofsuch climate changes andinparticular about thedegree ofthe
warming anditstiming .
From this point ofview ,uncertainties about thepotential role of
climatic feedbacks duetoclouds ,vegetation etc.areparticularly
relevant .
Itisestimated that thedifferent greenhouse gases contribute at
present totheoverall greenhouse forcing roughly inthefollowing
proportion :55%forCC^,25%forCFC's,20%forCH^,^0and0^
together .

-21
Thepossible development oftheoverall greenhouse effect oftheabove
mentioned gases until theyear 2075 hasbeen tentatively evaluated by
theWorld Resources Institute interms offorecasts fortheaverage
warming commitment with reference to4scenarios encompassing hypotheses
about future developments from "donothing "andhigh growth to
voluntaristic emission reduction policies .
Thehypotheses onwhich this exercise hasbeen based arepresented at
page 23.
Itshould beunderlined that ithas not been taken account here ofthe
likely positive consequences oftherecent Montreal protocol onCFC's.
TheWRIstudy gives only avery limited role tonuclear energy inall
scenarios .Innone ofthescenarios mentioned ,theshare ofnuclear in
total primary energy supply exceeds 4.5% by2025 .Inother studies this
share ismuch higher ,forexample ,IIASA =23%,WEC (83)=13%,
Goldenberg =7%,Edmons =19% .TheCommission 'sownenergy 2000 study
sees theshare ofnuclear inworld energy supplies asfollows :1983 =
3.3% ,1990 =5.4% ,2000 =7.1% .Environmental costs fornuclear range
from $7.5 to$10/GJwhereas those forcoal arebetween $0.15 and
$1.20 /GJ.Inthecase ofoil$0.00 to$0.75 /GJ.Noenvironmental cost
isassigned torenewable energies .
This model asanyother onesuffers from both structural andinput data
limitations .However theusefulness ofsuch models istohelp
structuring thepolicy debate onsuch acomplex issue andtoidentify
critical areas forfurther research and study .

-22-
Theresultsaresummarized innextfigure.
Commitment toFuture Warming intheWR1 Scenario *
WUSctauk»
°l-■“––rri–T–I-1-
I960 2000 3025 I 3050 I 2075
□ÀiikkWUSctauio .
nHl(hEmWoni
HBaaeCue
Modest PoUdcs
fc>|Slow Build-Up
r
1 ■Hlr0□AU À ÀCOjwithin theforecast period
Approximate year ofcommitment towarming
equal to13to43dqrm centigrade above pre¬
industrial tempera hire.
Approximate year ofcommitment towarming
equal to13to43degrees centigrade above 1960
temperatures .
Source :KintzerI.M.(1987);"AMatterofDegrees,
WRI,Washington DC,USA

-23-
Energy Policies intheWR1 Scenarios
Каве Сам Зсоадло
'Tlttsmtas -Aft-Uaual/' sheinertial model ofgrowth and
Mirjmal forar-pro’' ^end-use efficiency
Mcdetf sttmuhrtO forsynh.reb aevifopnient
Mintóuì stiùmius fordcvel&pmcnt olsolar energy
gyStKTiS
Nopolicy tolimit tropical deforestation ortoencourage
reforestation
Mim&'ui cnvifcnmental cesia includcd inpricf ofenergychange intheworld csicrfry industry
Nopci«es toslow carbon diced tieemissions
High Emia^kra.0 Sœti&rio
•Accekrateti growth irenergy useIsencouraged
•Nopotjcxni toefowcarton dioxide emissions
°NosUmuius toimprove end-use efficiency
•Modest stimulus forincreased useofcoal
•Streng stimulus forsvnfuels development
•Nostimulus forderelopiaient ofsolårenergy systems
•Rapid deforestation andconversion ofmarginal lands to
agriculture
•Token environmental costs included inprice ofenergy
Modest Polices Scenario
•Strong stimulus forimproved end-use efftdency
•Modest stimulus foisolar energy
•Substantial efforts attropical reforestation andecosystem
protection more intensive rather ihan extensive
agriculture encouraged
•Substantia ]environmental costs imposed onenergy
pnees todiscourage soud fueluseandencourage
fuel-switching
Slow Build-up Scénario
•Strong emphasis placed onimproving energy efficiency
•Rap»d introduction ofsolar energy encouraged
•Major global commitment toreforestation andecosystem
protection
•High environmental costs imposed onenergy prices to
discourage soitd fueluseanoencourage fuel-switchingRelated Energy Model Parameter Value
(Rate ofchange -0.8% peryear )
(Final Pricc-S35-£4.25 perCJin2005 )
(Fina )Pricc »$1550perCJin2)25 )
($0J0 perCJforcoal ;$1.00 perCJfortynfucU )
(Rate ofchange -0.2% peryear )
(Rate ofimprovement -075%peryear )
(Final Price-$2.75-5350 perCJin1995 )
(Final Price-$20perCJin2040 )
($0.15 perC]forcoal ;$0.50 perC)forsynfucls )
(Rate ofchange -1.0% peryear)
(Final price -$15.00 perCjin2025 )
($0.60 perG]forcool ;$1.50perGJforsynfuels )
(Rate ofimprovement -1.5% peryear )
(Final Price •$12.00 perCjm2000 )
($1.20 perGJforcoa);$3.00 perC)foraynfuels )
Total Emissions ofC0 2intheWRI Scenarios (Gigatons ofCarbon perYear )
r–––- 1 . –- 1 '■ ■ 1 1 1,1 1"* 11 i
]
32J ■
WR!Sean*rt « y?
H:gh Emissions y“ ÀbutClX /
^ if-Modes !Policirs y
©Slow Budd-up
w U. J*
i
I*•y
1"■ /
ê 14'
2« ' * --- ,- 1- 1- 1-
1975 2CC0 2025 2050 2073

-24-
Byadifferent approach .Dr. R.A.Warrich oftheClimatic Resarch Unit
oftheUniversity ofEast Anglia inNorwich -UK,hasrecently tried to
link emission forecasts andlikely climatic changes andtoassign
probabilities tothepossible outcome .
Theresults ofthis exercise aresummarized inthefollowing graph :
RESIDUAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE (FROM 1985tN°C )
(B)CLIMATE SENSITIVITY EQUILIBRIUM|(TRAN8IENT ) CUMAT ,CCHANGE- ïï'à<2*Z9J>__
e.0"
.J2.5J5._t)___6.0"" p
-r–rp.,. BESTGUESS 1:.45'r
j- b_*_:T\T
dfc-T+T-r-±n-ir-3KJ--» -
800700 18Ó0J500^2T\169520052015202520352045
EQUIVALENTC02C0NC(ppmv)/Æ\ •yEAR
II\SÿffJ 1
y^•-2026^^1
“2036
ÉÊÊmr/-M4S\
S'* 1YEAR \
(A)GREENHOUSE FORCINGRESIDUALTEMPERATURE CHANGE (FROM1985tN°C)
(C)CLIMATICCHANGE (B)CLIMATESENSITIVITY-
J2.5J5J)
800700 1800J500
‘EQUIVALENT CO.CONC(ppmv)t *I I 11695 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045
\ YEAR
+2016
+2026
+2045
YEAR
(A)GREENHOUSE FORCING
Legend:
-WIGLEY ,SCOPE ,BASE CASE indicate projections ofgreenhouse gases
emissions
-T2X istheclimate sensitivity expressed asequilibrium temperature
increase duetoadoubling oftheequivalent CO2concentration
-“transient temperature "isthetemperature increase atagiven date
duetothegreenhouse forcing
-"equilibrium temperature "isthewarming towhich earth would have
been committed atagiven date due tothegreenhouse effect .

-25-
Thefollowing conclusions i.a.have been drown bytheauthor ofthe
above mentioned evaluation :
■-Given therange ofscientific uncertainties ,thewarming towhich
wewill becommitted in2030 is0.8-6.4°C .Thechance offalling
outside this range isless than 1%.
-The"best-guess "range is1.5-3.1°C warmer than today .The
probability ofwarming within this range is45%.
-The90%confidence interval is1.1-5.1°C .This median value -the
best guess -is2.8°C ."
12.Thepresently available climate models predict (with various degrees of
(1)uncertainties )thefollowing climate andassociated impacts :
-Global-Mean Surface Warming (very probable ).For adoubling of
atmospheric carbon dioxide (oritsradiative equivalent from allof
thegreenhouse gases ),the long-term global-mean surface warming is
expected tobeintherange of1.5to4.5°C .Themost significant
uncertainty arises from theeffects ofclouds .Ofcourse ,theactual
rate ofwarming over thenext century will begoverned bythegrowth
rate ofgreenhouse gases ,natural fluctuations intheclimate system ,
andthedetailed response oftheslowly responding parts ofthe
climate system ,i.e. ,oceans andglacial ice .
-Global-Mean Precipitation Increase (very probable ).Increased heating
ofthesurface will lead toincreased evaporation and,therefore ,to
greater global mean precipitation .Despite this increase inglobal
average precipitation ,some individual regions might well experience
decreases inrainfall .
-Polar Winter Surface Warming (very probable ).Asthesea iceboundary
isshifted poleward ,themodels predict adramatically enhanced
surface warming inwinter polar regions .Thegreater fraction ofopen
water andthinner seaicewill probably lead towarming ofthepolar
surface airbyasmuch as3times theglobal mean warming .
(1)Source :NRC (1987 );Current Issues inClimate Change ,National Research
Council ,Washington DC,USA .

-26-
-Summer Continental Dryness /Warming (likely inthelong term ).Several
studies have predicted amarked long-term drying ofthesoil moisture
over some mid-latitude interior continental regions during summer .
This dryness ismainly caused byanearlier termination ofsnowmelt
andrainy periods /and anearlier onset ofthespring -to-summer
reduction ofsoil wetness .Ofcourse /these simulations oflong-term
equilibrium conditions maynotoffer areliable guide totrends over
thenext fewdecades ofchanging atmospheric composition andchanging
climate .
-High-Latitude Precipitation Increase (probable ).Astheclimate
warms /theincreased poleward penetration ofwarm /moist airshould
increase theaverage annual precipitation inhigh latitudes .
Tocomplete thepicture ofexpected direct effects ,itisworth
mentioning also a:
-Large Stratospheric Cooling (virtually certain ).Reduced ozone
concentrations intheupper stratosphere will lead toreduced
absorption ofsolar ultraviolet radiation andtherefore less heating .
Increases inthe stratospheric concentration ofcarbon dioxide and
other radiatively active trace gases will increase theradiation of
heat from the stratosphere .Thecombination ofdecreased heating and
increased cooling will lead toamajor lowering oftemperatures inthe
upper stratosphere .
This last effect seems quite important asapossible efficient andrapid
"finger-print "ofthegreenhouse effect given that "theexpected changes
intheupper stratosphere arenearly ofanorder ofmagnitude greater
than theexpected surface changes andthat they arenotaffected bythe
ocean thermal inertia andbycloud feedback effects (processes which are
asource ofconsiderable uncertainty inassessing tropospheric climate
change )" (WMO,1985 ).
13.Itisworth stressing again that uncertainties ontheshape ,onthe
regional distribution andontherate ofsuch changes should nothide
the fact that observed andexpected increase ingreenhouse gases
atmospheric concentrations will modify thethermal balance oftheearth
andtherefore will bring some warming andpossible associated climate
modification .

-27-
Asitwasputasaconclusion atasymposium on"CO^andother
greenhouse gases :climatic andassociated impact "organized bythe
Commission on3to5November 1986 :
Although quantitative uncertainties inmodels remain ,itisnow
believed that increasing concentrations ofgreenhouse gases will
produce asignificant change during the21st century .
“...This warming of1.5to4.5° isexpected otoccur over thenext
50years .
-Over Europe therange ofmodel results shows that average summer
temperatures could increase by2-6°C,winter average temperatures
by4-10°C .Inwinter precipitation would increase ..."
Potential impacts ofclimate changes
14.Potential impacts oftheabove mentioned climate changes will ofcourse
depend onthe size and rate ofthe latter .Atthesymposium on and
other greenhouse gases "mentioned inparagraph 13,itwasconcluded
that :
"Theexpected climatic change will have profound effects onsea-level ,
global ecosystems ,agriculture ,water resources andsea-ice ."
Inparticular such impacts could involve :
15.Sea level rise
Over thepast 100years ,while global mean temperature hasincreased by
approximately 0.5°C ,sealevel hasrisen by10-15 cm.(Source :US-EPA
(1986);"Effects ofChanges inStratosphere Ozone andGlobal Climate ",
Volume 1).
Theprojected global warming could have thefollowing results :
.heating andtherefore expanding theocean water ;
.melting ofmountain glaciers ;
.melting ofthelarge icesheets inGreenland andAntarctica ;
.apossible (butunlikely )surge ofamajor portion oftheAntarctic
ice sheet into the ocean .

-28-
Awide range ofdifferent estimâtes forfuture sea level rise are
avai labié .
Themost likely range forsuch increase bythemiddle ofnext century
seems tobeintheorder of30cmto1/5meter (Toronto Conference /June
1988 ).
Asignificant rise insea level would :
.permanently inundate many coastal wetlands andlowlands ;
.accelerate coastal erosion ;
.exacerbate coastal flooding andstorm damage ;
.increase thesalinity ofestuaries andcoastal aquifers .
16.Réduction ofSea Ice
Astheclimate warms ,total seaice isexpected tobereduced .This is
avery probable effect .
17.Water Resources Impacts
Greenhouse warming may result insignificant changes inprecipitation
patterns .While itislikely that global mean precipitation will
increase ,some regions mayexperience decreases inrainfall .Several
studies predict substantial increases insummer dryness at
mid-latitudes .Aswell astheimpacts that this will have on
agriculture ,water resource reduction mayaffect thefollowing :
.availability ofwater forhuman consumption ;
.power génération ;
.effluent dilution ;
.navigation .
18.Agriculture
Itshould bementioned that anincrease intheCO^atmospheric
concentration would stimulate vegetable growth byincreasing
photosynthesis rate andtherefore could have perseabeneficial direct
effect oncrops andvegetation .This direct effect isdifficult to
quantify especially since theconcomitant temperature increase would
reduce therate ofnetphotosynthesis .Moreover anyattempt totake it

-29-
into account should trytostrike abalance between such direct effect
andindirect impacts ofincreasing C02concentration through climatic
modifications .
Thegreenhouse warming could affect agriculture andforestry mostly by
altering :
.total water availability andseasonal distribution ofrainfall at
regional level ;
.length ofgrowing season ;
.number ofextreme temperature events .
There aretwoperspectives ontheagricultural impacts ofclimate
change .
-The "Slow change "view :emphasises thesignificance ofgradual
increases inmean surface temperatures expected tolead togradual ,
long-term andcumulative changes inaverage regional climates and
agricultural patterns .
-The "Extreme events "view :emphasises changes inthefrequencies of
unusually disruptive events ;impact ofclimate change comes notonly
from theaverage butmainly from theextreme event ,e.g. droughts ,
flooding .
There isalready concern among some experts that recent regional extreme
events could bemore than just climate fluctuations .
Themain possible effects ofclimate variations onagriculture are
summarised below^ :
"-changes inlength ofthepotential growing season andchanges in
plant growth rates ;
Source :Parry M.L. etal(Eds)(1987 );TheImpact ofClimate
Variations onAgriculture ,Volume 1,Assessments inCool ,Temperate
andCold Regions ,Reidel ,Dordrecht ,TheNetherlands

-30
-changes inmean yield and inthevariability ofyields ;
-changes inthe level ofcrop certainty andinthecrop quality ;
-changes inthesensitivity ofplants toapplication offertilisers ,
pesticides andherbicides ."
Moreover climate changes could indirectly significantly affect
agriculture incertain regions oftheworld through possible effects on
soil characteristics ,water resources ,hydrology ,pests anddiseases
etc .
Atpresent ,there isuncertainty about thenature ,themagnitude and
location ofimpacts .Studies sofarconclude thefollowing :
-Areas particularly sensitive toshifts intemperature andrainfall
levels arehigh latitude ,semi-arid andhigh-altitude regions .
-Warming appears tobedetrimental tocereals inthecore wheat-growing
areas ofEurope and North-America .
-Investigations ofpossible impacts inCanada ,Finland andNorthern
(1)USSR using climate data from themodel byHansen etal,show
reduced yields ofspring-sown crops such aswheat ,barley andoats ,
duetotheincreased moisture stress early inthegrowing period .
Impacts onagriculture would result inimpacts onthe local community ,
regional andnational economies ,inparticular through changes infarm
income andprofitability ,changes inregional production costs ,changes
inregional andnational food production ,changes inregional farm
income disparities ,changes inregional economic activity and
employment .
Hansen J.etal (1983 ):"Efficient Three-Dimensional Global Models for
Climate Studies :Models Iand II",Monthly Weather Review III,pp.
609-662 .

-31
Inconclusion itisnotpossible under thepresent state ofknowledge to
give more than atentative andqualitative description ofpossible
effects ofclimate changes onagriculture given thelarge uncertainties
about theregional shape andsize ofsuch changes andthelack of
detailed research andstudies onthelikely response ofagricultural
systems invarious regions oftheworld .
Urgent efforts arerequired toimprove understanding ofthese aspects
both atglobal level because ofthepotentially disruptive food security
effects andatCommunity level because ofthedirect potential
socio-economic impacts .
19.Forest Ecosystems andTimber Production
Itisworth noticing that the same general comment onthedirect
potential effect ofCC^onvegetation made atthebeginning of
paragraph 18applies here too .
Predicted impacts include thefollowing :
.modification ofbotanical andzoological composition ofnatural
forest ecosystems ;
.increase offorest decline innatural andmanmade forest stands ;
.modifications inforest productivity andforest management ;
.disturbance oftimber -andwoodproducts markets andtrade ;
.danger ofextinction ofcertain forest tree species andlocal
ecotypes with alimited geographical distribution andbythis a
reduction ofglobal genetic variability offorests .
20.Human Health Impacts
Itshould also bementioned that aglobal warming could also have
impacts forhuman health .Itcould inparticular :
.possibly enable some diseases which require warm year-round
temperatures tosurvive athigher latitudes ;
.cause more frequent famines andshortages offood supplies (extreme
events );

-32
Expansion oftropical climates andconcurrent expansion oftherange of
tropical diseases would mostly affect developing countries that already
face health problems .
21.Ecology andFisheries Impacts
Thefollowing potential ecological impacts areworth mentioning :
.impacts onless managed ecosystems ;
.impacts onmarine ecosystems ;
.multiple stresses onsome species which could become extinct /
resulting inasignificant decline inbiodiversity ;
.impact onwildlife reserves (theimpact would depend onwhether the
reserve 'sboundaries encompass areas towhich plants andanimals
could migrate ).
The level ofimpact would depend ontherate ofchange inclimate and
thus thetime allowed foracclimatisation andecological species shifts .
Finally itisworth mentioning that since theocean andatmosphere are
coupled ,both thedistribution andabundance offishery resources are
capable ofbeing modified byclimate .
However /itiscontroversial howmuch observed changes inparticular
fishery stocks areduetoclimate andother natural causes orto
overfishing .
II.THE INTERNATIONAL FRANEWORK AND PERSPECTIVES
Introduction
22.Lerôle joué parcertains gazprésents dans l'atmosphère dans les
équilibres thermiques delaterre était connu dans sesgrandes lignes
déjà vers lamoitié dusiècle dernier (Tyndall /1863 ;ArrheniuS /1896 ;
Chamberlin /1899 ).
Lespremières mesures systématiques delaconcentration duC0£parun
réseau mondial ont toutefois démarré seulement en1958 .

-33-
Depuis lors l'augmentation observée decette concentration apoussé les
milieux scientifiques àentreprendre etàintensifier larecherche sur
tous lesaspects del'effet serre .
Cen'esttoutefois quetrès récemment que cesujet acommencé àfaire
l'objet del'attention desresponsables politiques .
Lesproblèmes bien connus concernant lacouche d'ozone quiontentraîné
desnégociations internationales etdesdécisions politiques onten
effet porté l'attention decesresponsables politiques sur lesrisques
globaux liés auxmodifications denotre atmosphère causées par l'action
del'homme etsur lanécessité depréparer lesréponses concrètes à
donner auxindications scientifiques deplus enplus inquiétantes
concernant l'éventualité demodifications duclimat .
Asaconsequence ,thefollowing recent events have marked animportant
evolution inattitudes towards thegreenhouse issue :
.the "Villach "conference (Villach-Austria ,9-15 October 1985 );
.theEuropean Parliament resolution onmeasures tocounteract CC^
rising concentrations (September 1985 )
.TheEECSymposium on"CO^andother greenhouse gases "(Brussels ,
3-5November 1986 );
.TheWorkshops on"Developing policies forresponding toclimatic
change "(Villach-Aust ria,28September-2 October 1987 and
Bellagio-Ita ly,9-13 November 1987 );
.TheBrundtland Commission' sreport
„TheWorld Conference on"Thechanging atmosphere "(Toronto ,27-30 June
1988 ).
The last event isofparticular importance forfuture development and
itsoutcome ispresented inthenext paragraph .
Details about theother events mentioned above aregiven intheAnnex to
this document .
Theworld conference on"Thechanging atmosphere ,implications forglobal
security "-Toronto ,27-30 june 1988

34-
23.This high level conference hasbeen organized attheinitiative ofthe
Canadian government tofollow-up some oftheconclusions and
recommendations oftheBrundtland commission report .
More than 300scientists andpolicy makers from 48countries ,United
Nations organizations ,other international bodies andnon-governmental
organizations participated inthesessions .
Oftheconference conclusions andrecommendations ,thefollowing seem
most important and aretherefore reproduced infull :
■-Humanity isconducting anenormous ,unintended ,globally pervasive
experiment whose ultimate consequences could besecond only toa
global nuclear war .TheEarth 'satmosphere isbeing changed atan
unprecedented rate bypollutants resulting from human activities ,
inefficient andwasteful fossil fuel use and theeffects ofrapid
population growth inmany regions .These changes represent amajor
threat tointernational security andarealready having harmful
consequences over many parts oftheglobe .
-Far-reaching impacts wilt becaused byglobal warming andsea level
rise ,which arebecoming increasingly evident asaresult of
continued growth inatmospheric concentrations ofcarbon dioxide and
other greenhouse gases .Thebest predictions available indicate
potentially severe economic andsocial dislocation forpresent and
future generations ,which will worsen international tensions and
increase therisk ofconflicts among andwithin nations .Itis
imperative toactnow."
Thefollowing immediate actions arerecommended :
"A.Actions byGovernments andIndustry
-Ratify theMontreal Protocol onSubstances that Deplete theOzone
Layer .TheProtocol should berevised in1990 toensure nearly
complete elimination oftheemissions offully halogenated CFCs by
theyear 2000 .Additional measures tolimit other ozone-destroying
halocarbons should beconsidered .

35
Setenergy policies toreduce theemissions ofC02andother trace
gases inorder toreduce therisks offuture global warming .
Stabilizing theatmospheric concentrations ofC02isanimperative
goal .Itiscurrently estimated torequire reductions ofmore than
50percent from present emissions levels .Energy research and
developmental budgets must bemassively directed toenergy options
which would eliminate orgreatly reduce C02emissions andtostudies
undertaken tofurther refine thetarget reductions .
Reduce C02emissions byapproximately 20percent of1988 levels by
theyear 2005 asaninitial global goal .Clearly ,the
industrialized nations have aresponsibility tolead theway,both
through their national energy policies andtheir bilateral and
multilateral assistance arrangements .About one-half ofthis
reduction would besought from energy efficiency andother
conservation measures .Theother half should beeffected by
modifications insupplies .
Settargets forenergy efficiency improvements that aredirectly
related toreductions inC02andother greenhouse gases .A
challenging target would betoachieve the 10percent energy
efficiency improvements by2005 .Improving energy efficiency isnot
precisely thesame asreducing total carbon emissions andthe
detailed policies will notallbefamiliar ones .Adetailed study
ofthesystems implications ofthis target should bemade .Equally ,
targets forenergy supply should also bedirectly related to
reductions inC02andother greenhouse gases .Aswithefficiency ,a
challenging target would again betoachieve the10percent energy
supply improvements by2005 .Adetailed study ofthesystems
implications ofthis target should also bemade .Thecontributions
toachieving this goal will vary from region toregion ;some
countries have already demonstrated acapability forincreasing
efficiency bymore than 2percent ayear forover adecade .
Apart from efficiency measures ,thedesired reduction will require
(i)switching tolower C02emittaing fuels ,(ii)reviewing
strategies fortheimplementation ofrenewable energy especially
advanced biomass conversion technologies ;(iii)revisiting the
nuclear power option ,which lost credibility because ofproblems
related tonuclear safety ,radioactive wastes ,andnuclear weapons

36
proliferation .Ifthese problems canbesolved /through improved
engineering designs andinstitutional arrangements ,nuclear power
could have aroletoplay inlowering COgemissions .
-Negotiate now onways toachieve theabove-mentioned reductions .
î
-Initiate management systems inorder toencourage ,review and
approve major newprojects forenergy efficiency .
-Vigorously apply existing technologies ,inaddition togains made
through reduction offossil fuel combustion ,toreduce (i>emissions
ofacidifying substances toreach thecritical load that the
environment canbear ;(ii)substances which areprecursors of
tropospheric ozone ;(iii)other non-Cl^greenhouse gases .
-Label products toallow consumers tojudge theextent andnature of
theatmospheric contamination that arises from themanufacture and
use ofthe product .
B.Action byMember Governments oftheUnited Nations ,
Non-Governmental Organizations andRelevant International Bodies .
-Initiate thedevelopment ofacomprehensive global convention asa
framework forprotocols ontheprotection oftheatmosphere .The
convention should emphasize such keyelements asthefree
international exchange ofinformation andsupport ofresearch and
monitoring ,andshould provide aframework forspecific protocols
foraddressing particular issues ,taking into account existing
international law .This should bevigorously pursued atthe
International Workshop onLawandPolicy tobeheld inOttawa early
in1989 ,thehigh-level political conference onClimate Change in
theNetherlands inthe Fall ,1989 ,theWorld Energy Conference in
Canada in1989 andtheSecond World Climate Conference ,Geneva ,June
1990 ,with aview tohaving theprinciples andcomponents ofsuch a
convention ready forconsideration attheinter-governmental
Conference onSustainable Development in1992 .These activities
should innowayimpede simultaneous national ,bilateral and
regional actions andagreements todeal with specific problems such
asacidification andgreenhouse gasemissions .

-37-
Establish aWorld Atmosphere Fund ,financed inpart byalevy on
fossil fuel consumption ofindustrialised countries ,tomobilize a
substantial part oftheresources needed forimplementation ofthe
Action Plan fortheProtection oftheAtmosphere .
Support thework oftheInter-governmental Panel onClimate Change
toconduct continuing assessments ofscientific results andinitiate
government -to-government discussion ofresponses andstrategies .
Devote increasing resources toresearch andmonitoring efforts
within theWorld Climate Programme ,theInternational Geosphere
Biosphere Programme andHuman Response toGlobal Change Programme .
Itisparticularly important tounderstand howclimate changes ona
regional scale arerelated toanoverall global change ofclimate .
Emphasis shouls also beplaced onbetter determining therole of
oceans andglobal heat transport andtheflux ofgreenhouse gases .
Increase significantly thefunding forresearch ,development and
transfer ofinformation onrenewable energy ,ifnecessary bythe
establishment ofadditional andbridging programmes ;extend
technology transfer with particular emphasis ontheneeds ofthe
developing countries ;andupgrade efforts tomeet obligations for
thedevelopment andtransfer oftechnology embodied inexisting
agreements .
Expand funding formore extensive technology transfer andtechnical
cooperation projects incoastal zone protection andmanagement .
Reduce deforestation andincrease afforestation making use of
proposals such asthat intheWorld Commission onEnvironment and
Developments (WCED )report ,"OurCommon Future ",including the
establishment ofatrust fund toprovide adequate incentives to
enable developing nations tomanage their tropical forest resources
sustainably .
Develop andsupport technical cooperation projects toallow
developing nations toparticipate ininternational mitigation
efforts ,monitoring ,research andanalysis related tothechanging
atmosphere .

-38-
-Ensure that this Conference Statement ,theWorking Groupe reports
andthefull Proceedings oftheWorld Conference ,"TheChanging
Atmosphere :Implications forGlobal Security "(tobepublished in
the Fall ,1988 )aremade available toallnations ,tothe
conferences mentioned under paragraph 26,andother future meetings
dealing with related issues .
-Increase funding tonon-governmental organizations toallow the
establishment ofenvironmental education programmes andpublic
awareness campaigns related tothechanging atmosphere .Such
programmes would aim atsharpening perception oftheissues ,and
changing public values andbehaviour with respect tothe
environment .
-Allocate financial support forenvironmental education inprimary
andsecondary schools anduniversities .Consideration should be
given toestablishing special groups inuniversity departments for
addressing thecrucial issues ofglobal climate change .
Future possible developments
24.Apossible short-term outcome oftheabove mentioned international
activites isinitiation ,already in1989 ,oftheprocess forpreparing a
comprehensive global convention ontheprotection oftheatmosphere .
Limitations totheemissions ofgreenhouse gases would then beagreed by
specific protocols intheframe ofsuch convention .
25.Next essential events onthewaytothat convention might probably be :
-theinternational workshop onlawandpolicy tobeheld inOttawa
early in1989 ;
-ahigh level political conference tobeconvened intheautumn 1989 by
theNetherlands Ministry oftheEnvironment ;

-39-
~theSecond World Climate Conference /Geneva /June 1990 ;
-theIntergovernmental Conference onsustainable Development in1992
which could betheculminating event .
26.Thesubstance oftheconvention mentioned under 24above (andof
associated protocols )asfarasthegreenhouse issue isconcerned could
probably consist in :
a)greenhouse gases emission reduction targets fordeveloped countries ;
b)newdevelopment aidschemes tohelp developing countries tolimit the
increase oftheir greenhouse gases emissions byuseofappropriate
technologies and toreverse deforestation trends ;
c)anewimpetus toscientific andtechnical international cooperation
onalltheaspects relevant forthegreenhouse issue .
27.Renegotiation oftheMontreal Protocol onCFC'sisavery likely short
term development .
28.Policy discussions onthewayhowtodeal with thegreenhouse effect
might bevery complex because ofthemany farreaching andinterrelated
aspects ofthe issue .
Inthis respect /itisworth stressing theglobal /complex and
differentiated nature ofthechallenge putbythegreenhouse issue .
This waswell presented inthefollowing statement attheBellagio
(1987 )workshop (seeAnnex );
"... theparticipants emphasized therelationship between theissue of
climatic change /including policy responses toit/andanumber of
other issues /above allinthefield ofenvironment anddevelopment .
This relationship underlines theimportance ofthedifferences in
impact byregion /andhence bycountry /ofclimatic change andthe
extent towhich these differences affect theeffort ofthe
international community inpromoting sustainable development .

-40-
Thereport oftheBrundtland Commission hasexplained the
ramifications ofthese numerous interconnections .Thesignificance
ofthedifference inregional impact should not/however /beallowed
todetract from theemphasis onthecomunity asawhole infacing it.
Still less should itencourage anyattempts todivide countries or
regions into "winners "or"losers ".This isnot a"zero-sum "game .
Unless action istaken ,itcould beanegative sumgame ofhighly
uncertain proportions ."
III .REVIEW OFPOSSIBLE ACTIONS
Introduction
29.Preliminary indications from research results andthestate ofthe
international debate call forurgent consideration offurther action on
thegreenhouse issue .
Such action ,ofwhich thefollowing paragraphs give anoverview ,could
include :
-research ;
-preventive measures (i.e. measures tocurb greenhouse gases
emissions );
-adaptive measures (i.e. measures toadapt toclimatic changes and
totheir impacts ifthose seem likely tobeunavoidable despite
preventive measures ).
30.Policy measures may beclassed into three groups :
(a)those which have tobetaken ataninternational level and require
international agreement (e.g. reduction ofCOgemissions );
(b)those which maybetaken ataEuropean level (e.g. planning for
water resources ,agricultural andforest planning )orinspecific
countries e.g. through development aidprogrammes (conservation of
tropical forests ,wetlands ,coastal ecosystems ,appropriate energy
policies ,etc.);

-41
(c)those ofanintermediate character (e.g. decisions ontheenergy mix
tobeadopted ,taking account of(a)andofparticular European
conditions ).
Thegroup towhich anyparticular measure belongs maydetermine thetime
necessary toitsadoption andrequire aproper approach .
Heasures ofaninternational character mayignore specific local
conditions ;local measures cannot doso.
31.The above mentioned factors have tobetaken into account inorder to
correctly coordinate thepolicy decision timing andtheresearch timing .
Infact this coordination isessential for two reasons :
(a)theuncertainties asregards theclimate change and itsimpacts
increase with increasing spatial andtemporal definition :the
ultimate answer one isexpecting from scientific research iswhat
will happen ,when ,where .Nowthe "what "becomes increasingly
uncertain astherange ofthe "when "and "where "becomes smaller .
Yetsuch knowledge isvital foranyplanning which decision makers
could consider .
(b)inorder totake policy decisions itiscrucial toknow
-which danger ,when andwhere ,onehastoface andwhat
consequences upon theenvironment ,theeconomy ,thesociety at
large aretobeexpected ;
-howtoimplement atbest themeasures decided ;
Therefore ,thestudy ofpolicy options andscientific research have to
goinparallel ,andthere must beacontinuous feedback between thetwo.
Only inthis waycanoneavoid that decisions areunduly delayed orthat
they aretaken without taking fully into account research results .
Research itself should benefit from that interaction process ,bybeing
continuously reoriented towards specific objectives andactual problems
\and needs .

-42-
Research activities
32.Already since 1980 ,theCommission oftheEuropean Communities is
carrying out aresearch programme inClimatology ,whose main research
areas areconcerned with thestudy oftheevolution ofclimate inthe
past ,with climate modelling ,with theman-induced climate change and
with the impacts that such change could have onEuropean land andwater
resources .Thesymposium held inBrussels inNovember 1986 (Annex B)
wasorganised intheframe ofthis programme andwasmeant toprovide
the scientific consensus available atthat date .
Research isbeing focussed especially ontheclimatic effects of
greenhouse gases ,andclimatologically significant processes imperfectly
understood asyet,such asatmosphere-ocean interactions ,thewater
vapour-greenhouse feedback ,the cloud feedback ,aerosol andcloud
climatology ,biospheric sources andsinks oftrace gases ,climatic
aspects ofozone changes andtroposphere-stratosphere interactions ,the
effects ofglabal warming onthemelting rate oficeshelves .
33.Inthenear future theClimatology research programme oftheCommission
will put agreater stress ontheimpacts which climate change could have
onimportant sectors oftheEuropean environment .
Such intensified research should concern inparticular :
(1)The rise insea level and its impacts onthe European coasts
(prediction offuture sea-level changes ,thechange instorm surge
risks forEuropean coastal installations ,theimpacts oncoastal
ecosystems andcoastal land use).
(2)Theimpacts ofachanging climate onEuropean crops ,forests ,water
resources (bioclimatic shifts ofcrops andforests ,changes in
productivity ,thesensitivity ofEuropean crops toincreased CO^and
climate change ,theimpacts onsurface andground water supplies ).
(3)Theeffects oftheclimate change asregards theprogressive
aridif ication oftheMediterranean Europe (effects ofclimatic and
meteorological factors onsoil degradation ,theimpact of
progressive drought onvegetation ).

-A3-
(A)Theoccurrence andfrequency ofextreme events andtheir impacts
upon agriculture andindustry (theimpacts ofthealternance of
droughts andheavy rainfall onEuropean land resources ,theimpacts
ofmeteorological extremes such ashail andfrost onEuropean
agriculture andindustry ).
(5)Themilting ofAlpine glaciers .
(6)Thestudy ofthesocial ,economic andpolitical factors conditioning
probable future emission rates ofgreenhouse gases ,andlikely tobe
affected byanypolicy option that could beadopted .
(7)Thestudy ofsocio-economic impacts ,inparticular intheCommunity ,
due toclimatic changes ,forthevarious relevant aspects ,such as
consequences foragriculture ,consequences forcostline regions of
the sea level rise ,etc .
Such research should besupplemented byasound monitoring of
atmospheric andoceanic conditions .International agreements should
allow toplace instrumentation where itisneeded and tohave access to
space based monitoring systems .Avital component ofamonitoring
programme istheutilisation ofspace technology tounderstand the
processes which control theearth 'sclimate system and itssensitivity
tonatural andman-induced changes .
3A.Environmental constraints ,especially thereduction ofairpollution ,
call for abalanced pursuit ofenvironmental andenergy objectives .
AsfarasCC^isconcerned ,theobjective canalso beachieved through
progress inthedevelopment andavailability oftechniques ,processes
andproducts allowing rational useofenergy andtheefficient and
economic use ofrenewable energy sources andbysafe nuclear energy .
These considerations provide ample justification foraspecific energy
R&Oprogramme inthefields ofrenewable energies ,rational useof
energy andsafe nuclear technology which will ensure continuity ofthe
progress made since 1975 andguarantee that optimum benefits begained
from thenewenergy technologies developed sofar .

-44-
35.Elimination ofCf^atthesource could eventually become anewdomain of
resarch .Noeconomically ortechnically feasible technologies areyet
avai lable .
Newdirections for research inthis field should beexplored .
36.Moreover ,themanagement oftheCOgproblem implies both thedefinition
ofglobal reduction objectives andtheimplementation ofthese
objectives .Thefirst aspect oftheproblem requires todetermine by
howmuch theemissions will need tobereduced andthepace ofthat
reduction .The implementation action will have todetermine the
economic activities that will bear themajor part ofthis reduction ,the
allocation ofthis reduction among thedifferent actors andthe
institutional approaches toarrive atthese objectives .
System Analysis can,inprinciple ,provide theadequate basis for
looking atthese questions .Energy-Environment models give the
possibility offinding efficient ways ofachieving emission goals ;
Climate models are there toassess the impact ofemissions onthe
environment and tohelp construct scenarios ofadaptive measures ;
Energy-economy models allow tocompute theimpact ontheeconomic
systems ofthecosts incurred bythereduction ofemissions .
Themodels developed intheSystem Analysis Community research programme
should beadapted andused inthedirection defined above foranalysing
energy related CCgemissions reduction measures andprogrammes .
Theaimofsuch research would betoevaluate thefeasibility andthe
costs ofvarious reduction objectives aswell astoassess their impact
ontheenergy andeconomy sectors .
Préventive action (greenhouse gases émission réduction )
37.Preventive action isanyaction aiming atcurbing theexpected increase
ingreenhouse gases atmospheric concentrations .
This could mean aiming first atreducing the rate ofincrease ofthose
concentrations andinthelonger term atstabilizing them .Reduction of
greenhouse gases concentrations does notseem atthis stage arealistic
objective butcould beavery long term goal .

-45-
38.Theonly wayathand tocontrol future trends ofgreenhouse gases
concentrations islimiting man-made emissions including ,incase ofCO^,
reversing thepresent trend ofdeforestation intropical regions .
Preventative action isfurther discussed with reference tothemost
relevant greenhouse gases here below .
39*Carbon dioxide CCO^>emissions
Asshown inparagraph 4ofchapter I,CO^emissions aremostly dueto
fossil fuels burning andforest wood burning orforest biomass
decomposition .
Preventive action could therefore include measures tobetaken inthe
energy sector (including energy forindustry andtransportation )and in
theforestry andagricultural sectors asfar asaction inthese sectors
could help topreserve forests .
Atentative list ofactions aiming atCO^emissions reduction which
could bestudied might include :
A.Energy related measures for CO.,
There areseveral types oftechnical energy related measures that
could curb CO^emissions ,aslisted below .
Ofcourse not allthose measures areequally efficient or
cost-effective and one should make aclear distinction between the
physical potential ofCC^emission reduction ofagiven measure and
itseconomic viability .
Thefollowing technical measures ,which are listed without any
ranking orpriority ,mayprovide ways toreduce CO^emissions from
carbon-based fuels :
a.Energy Efficiency
-improving theefficiency ofenergy demand (e.g. more efficient
light bulbs ,better insulation ,more efficient cars ,electronic
regulations ,etc.);

-46-
-improving theefficiency ofenergy supply (e.g. cogeneration ,
introduction ofcombined cycle possibly integrated with
high-temperature nuclear reactors ,develoment ofMHD,etc.);
b.Energy Supply
-fuel switching toless CO^emitting fuels (therelation of
emitted quantities with regard toaunit ofenergy produce for
thecombustion oflignite ,hard coal ,oilandnatural gas isas
follows :121,100,88,58);
-increased use ofnon carbon based renewable energies (pe.solar ,
windpower ,hydro ,geothermal ,photovoltaics );^
-increased use ofnuclear power .
c.Biotic sources
-Usebiomass forenergy purposes (such aswood forheating or
cooking indeveloping countries )inasustainable way sothat
theCO^atmospheric balance isnotaffected significantly ;
d.CO^technology abatement
-Although atpresent noeconomically ortechnically feasible
technologies seem tobeavailable ,this possibility should not
beexcluded for the future .
e.Long-term development
-Introduction ofnon-carbon based energy systems intheir various
forms combined with electricity andhydrogen assecondary energy
carriers .
Anypolicy decision aiming atreducing COgemissions intheenergy
sector should becarefully examined taking fully into account the
specific objectives andconstraints existing atinternational ,
community andnational level inthis sector .Ontheother hand ,any
future decision inthefield ofenergy policy should take into
account theproblem ofpotential climate changes linked tothe
greenhouse effect .

-47-
System analysis models have been extensively used inthepast for
exploring consequences ofeconomic -energy -environmental related
measures andtheuse ofsuch analytical models mayprovide
information onthefeasibility ofmeasures toachieve COgreduction
goals .Scenarios analysis cancomplete such information andidentify
technologies which have agood chance ofcontributing tothat
objective andhence should deserve more attention .
B.Measures related toforestry andnatural ecosystems
a.Conserve forest resources
-promote appropriate agricultural practices andorganization in
developing countries toavoid that agricultural land demand
cause further deforestation ;
-assist developing countries toimprove their ability tomanage
forests inamanner that ensures that they areexploited ona
sustainable basis ;
-reinforce prevention andfighting offorest fires ;
-promote actions tomonitor andrestore declining forests ;
-provide alternatives toandimprove theefficiency ofthe
utilisation offuel-wood forcooking indeveloping countries .
b.Promote afforestation
-increase reafforestation efforts notably insubtropical and
tropical regions ;
-promote agroforestry ,especially indeveloping countries ,
c.Natural ecosystem protection
-promote theconservation ofecosystems directly orindirectly
relevant fortheglobal carbon cycle .

-48-
40.CFCs «lissions
Possible preventative actions are :
a.Constrain use
b.Constrain production
c.Recapture andrecycle ordestroy
41.CH^,N^Oemissions
Actions which could beconsidered are :
a.Minimize CH^losses inextraction ,transport anduseofnatural gas.
b.Minimize CH^losses from landfills .
c.Minimize ^0emission from fossil fuels burning .
d.Study possible improvements inlivestocks management ,rice
cultivation andlagoons management ,aiming atreducing CH^release .
e.Study possible improved fertilizing management practices toreduce
N^Orelease from nitrogen fertilizers use.
42.Thepossible use ofmechanisms such astaxation ofproducts that cause
greenhouse gasemissions orofemissions themselves where this is
feasible ,could beconsidered tostimulate orcomplement technology
measures .
Planned adaptation
43.Planned adaptation involves taking account ofpotential greenhouse
impacts inlong-term planning ,most likely attheregional andnational
levels .
Consideration ofsuch measures inlong term planning becomes necessary
ifitisbelieved that :
-impacts arelikely tooccur which society will notbeable toadjust
tointhe short term ;
-implementation ofpreventative measures isunlikely tobesufficiently
effective intime (e.g. even ifemission controls were implemented
now,itispossible that significant impacts will occur duetothe
atmospheric warming towhich wearealready committed ).

-49-
Atthis stage itisnotpossible tocover *even inqualitative and
simple way*alltheadaptive measures which could beworth considering
inrelation tothevarious potential impacts ofthegreenhouse effect .
However *itisworth giving some indications concerning potential
measures forpossible sea-level rise andforimpacts onagriculture .
44.Possible adaptation measures concerning sealevel rise could include :
-Sea walls /flood barriers .
-National flood insurance programmes .
-Construction ofreservoirs (tocombat increased salinity ).
-Abandonment ofdeveloped regions inlowlying areas .
-Other relocation ofpopulations away from vulnerable sites .
-Protection ofcoastal ecosystems .
45.Examples ofmeasures which could beconsidered inorder toadapt to
impacts onagriculture are :
-More efficient use offertilisers .
-Changes ofland usetooptimise andtostabilize production ;
-Changes ofpolicy tomaintain national food security ;
-Changes topolicies supporting land management *such assoil erosion
control *water management *etc .
Cooperation with developing countries
46.Alltheabove measures *both asregards preventive action andasregards
planned adaptation *should also bedeveloped totake into account the
needs ofthedeveloping countries *andhowtheCommunity 'sdevelopment
aidpolicy cancontribute towards theprevention andtheadaptation of
thegreenhouse effect .Inparticular :
a)byenhancing thetype ofprojects that canactively contribute to
prevention such asthose which aredirected atreducing
deforestation *conserving wetlands *coastal ecosystems andthe
genetic diversity orarid ecosystems ;

-50-
b)bytaking into account theconsequences ofthegreenhouse effect in
medium-term project planning (e.g. agricultural programmes ,livestock
programmes ,fisheries andanyprojects related tolong-term
investments onlowlands which maybeaffected bytheforecasted
increase ofocean level );
c)byensuring that base line data being gathered forthepurpose of
implementing development projects bemade accessible totheCommunity
research programme onthegreenhouse effect .

-51
IV.CONCLUSIONS OFTHE COMMISSION
47.TheCommunity should implement fully theVienna Convention forthe
protection oftheozone layer andtheMontreal Protocol onsubstances
that deplete theozone layer .This will involve theadoption and
application byallMember states oftheproposed Council Decision ,
Regulation andResolution agreed tobytheCouncil on16June 1988 .
48.TheCommunity should participate actively intheefforts toward
renegotiation by1990 oftheMontreal Protocol onsubstances that
deplete theozone layer .TheProtocol should berevised sothat the
CFC'semissions could bealmost totally eliminated bytheyear 2000 as
recommended bythe Toronto conference .
49.TheCommmunity should welcome initiation ofdiscussions onthe
possibilities ofaninternational agreement forthefuture protection of
theatmosphere .Itshould beprepared togive animportant contribution
tothepreparation andnegotiation ofsuch anagreement which might
include theestablishment ofspecific targets forlimiting emissions of
greenhose gases aswell asdefinition ofemission reduction measures and
programmes .
50.Therefore ,theCommission will take theinitiative tolaunch a
substantial policy-options study programme toevaluate thefeasibility ,
costs andlikely results ofpossible measures tolimit greenhouse gases
emissions .Results ofsuch programme would give useful inputs tothe
international debate onthe issue .
Themain areas ofsuch programme should be :
-identification andtechnical assessment ofmeasures andtechnologies
invarious relevant fields capable toreduce greenhouse gases
emissions ;
-analysis ofeconomic ,industrial ,energy ,social andinstitutional
implications andimpacts oftheabove mentioned possible measures
andtechnologies ;
t
-structuring andevaluating policy scenarios referred inparticular
topossible strategic targets forCOgemission ceilings .

-52-
Areliable greenhouse gases emission inventory would beneeded in
this frame .
Thefocus oftheexercise should beonEurope inafirst instance .
-establishing adecision analysis framework inorder tolink
probabilistically policy options andtheir likely results an
benefits .
-identifying andevaluating adaptive policies tocope with
unavoidable effects under thedifferent scenarios resulting from the
decision analysis exercise .
TheCommission hasdeveloped several energy-economy and
energy-environment models andthose models andtheexperience gained in
policy analyses ofenergy-environment interactions should befully
exploited when starting newwork onthegreenhouse issue .
Theabove mentioned work programme should beclosely linked tothe
research anddevelopment activities onrelevant subjects such as
climatology andenergy .
Moreover aframework should becreated toallow systematic exchange of
views andrapid feedbacks among scientists andpolicy makers .
51.Thegreenhouse effect isaglobal problem /theCommunity should
therefore play animportant part inthedefinition ofaglobal policy /
involving inparticular developing countries /towards asustainable
development .
Community work onthegreenhouse issue should bestructured and
scheduled sotoallow synergism andcollaboration with international
organizations andthird countries .Inparticular theCommission work
programme should fully take account ofparallel activities intheframe
ofthepanel onclimate change ofWMO/UNEP andofOECD andIEA.
52.TheCommunity anditsMember States should bynowtake into account in
their policy decisions (related toenergy orother sectors relevant to
theissue )theproblem ofpotential climate changes linked tothe
greenhouse effect .
Early consideration ofsuch issue could avoid higher costs infuture .

53-
53.Moreover theCommission will take urgent action toreinforce andexpand
efforts inthefield ofenergy savings ,energy efficiency improvement ,
development ofnewenergy sources ,useofsafe nuclear technology .The
accelerated development andpromotion ofinnovative commercial-scale
technologies inthese fields should begiven high priority .
There isnodoubt that such action isjustified because ofboth energy
andenvironmental requirements ,independent ofuncertainties onsome
scientific aspects ofthegreenhouse issue .
Ofspecial importance would bethepossibility toquantify energy
efficiency improvements interms ofC0£reductions .
54.TheCommunity should sustain vigorous research programmes onallthe
relevant aspects ofthegreenhouse issue andshould promote newenergy
technologies having thepotential tolimit emissions .
55.Activities should bereinforced andexpanded inthe frame ofexisting
cooperation agreements ofthe ECwith mediterranean countries with the
aimboth ofpromoting sustainable development inthose countries andof
helping them toprevent likely impacts ofthegreenhouse issue ontheir
envi ronment .
56.TheCommission will also prepare urgent action inthefield ofaid to
developing countries both asregards preventive andasregards
adaptation measures .
Inparticular :
-Anattempt should bemade toclassify andmapgeographical areas
which areparticularly vulnerable tothegreenhouse effect (such as,
forinstance ,islands whose mean altitude above sealevel is
precariously low,coastal states ,etc .Such maping would form a
reference basis against which policies could beevaluated .Itwould
certainly beafirst step towards adapting policy asregards aidto
developing countries .
-xhegreenhouse effect should asmuch aspossible betaken into
account inconsidering thefeasibility ofmajor projects such as,
forinstance ,dams ,agricultural projects which involve major
modifications totheenvironment andinbeing particularly cautious
inevaluating anyproject which mayhave anegative input on

54τ
tropical forests ,wetlands ,coastal ecosystems ormountain
ecosystems .Instruments should bedeveloped toassess thelong-term
sensitivity ofdevelopment projects tothegreenhouse effect .
Preparedness against natural disaster also atsome stage have tobe
increased ,inrespect ofthetype ofcalamities which thegreenhouse
effect maymake more likely .(Forexample thestrength oftropical
storms which isexpected toincrease .)Inpreparing national
regional conservation strategies oneshould ensure that adequate
account istaken ofthegreenhouse effect .
57.Inparallel tothework needed toevaluate possible policy options ,
existing research programmes should bestrenghten tobetter understand
thepotential impacts ofthegreenhouse effect onEuropean regions .
These programmes should consider both thephysical andthe
socio-economic direct and indirect impacts .
Inthis frame the risks forthecoastline regions oftheCommunity
related topossible sea level rise should beassessed sothat
information useful for land useplanning isavailable todevelopers and
competent authorities .
58.Finally ,theCommission will setupaCommittee toexchange information
onalltheaspects ofthegreenhouse issue .Member States andthe
Commission should berepresented inthis Committee .

-55
ANNEX
Recent aajor events onthegreenhouse issue
f

-56-
A.The "VILLACH "Conference (International conference onthe assessment and
the rate ofC0-,andofother greenhouse gases Inclimate variations and
associated impacts (Villach -Austria ,9-15 October 1985 ))
This conference wasjointly convened byUNEP ,WMOandICSU with
participation ofscientists from twenty nine developed anddeveloping
countries .
Thefollowing sentences appear inthestatement adopted bythis
conference :
"Many important economic andsocial decisions arebeing made today on
long-term projects -major water resource management activities such
asirrigation andhydro-power ;drought relief ;agricultural land use;
structural designs andcoastal engineering projects ;andenergy
planning -allbased ontheassumption that past climatic data ,
without modification ,are areliable guide tothefuture .This isno
longer agood assumption since theincreasing concentrations of
greenhouse gases areexpected tocause asignificant warming ofthe
global climate inthenext century ."
"While some warming ofclimate nowappears inevitable duetopast
actions ,the rate anddegree offuture warming could beprofoundly
affected bygovernmental policies onenergy conservation ,useof
fossil fuels ,andtheemission ofsome greenhouse gases ."
"Based onevidence ofeffects ofpast climatic changes ,there is
little doubt that afuture change inclimate oftheorder of
magnitude obtained from climate models for adoubling ofthe
atmospheric CO^concentration could haveprofound effects onglobal
ecosystems ,agriculture ,water resources andseaice."

-57
"Governments andregional inter-governmental organizations should take
into account the results ofthis assessment (Villach 1985 )intheir
policies onsocial andeconomic development ,environmental
programmes ,andcontrol ofemissions ofradiatively active gases ."
■Public information efforts should beincreased byinternational
agencies andgovernments ontheissues ofgreenhouse gases ,climate
change andsea level ,including wide distribution ofthedocuments of
this Conference (Villach 1985 )."
"Major uncertainties remain inpredictions ofchanges inglobal and
regional precipitation andtemperature patterns .Ecosystem responses
arealso imperfectly known .Nevertheless ,theunderstanding ofthe
greenhouse question issufficiently developed that scientists and
policy-makers should begin anactive collaboration toexplore the
effectiveness ofalternative policies andadjustments .Efforts
should bemade todesign methods necessary forsuch collaboration ."
B.TheEECSymposium on"C02andother greenhouse gases :climatic and
associated impacts (Brussels ,3-5November 1986 )
Upon theinitiative ofDr.K.H. Narjes ,Vice-President oftheCommission
ofEuropean Communities ,aSymposium organised bytheCEC,DGXII,was
held inBrussels from3-5 November 1986 .Itwasattended byabout 60
leading European andUSscientists ,whoreviewed thewhole issue ofthe
climate change that will take place asaconsequence oftheaccummulation
oftheatmospheric COjandother greenhouse gases .
Further totheconclusions onthescientific aspects ofthegreenhouse
issue ,mentioned intherelevant sections ofthis document ,thefollowing
recommendations were presented asaconclusion ofthis Symposium :
"-Thetime hascome fortaking adecisive step toward converting the
dialogue between scientists anddecision makers from aremote ,
intermittent and casual reading ofreports oftheother party toa
closer andmore interactive exchange ofviews .

58
-Itisrecommended that ameans beestablished forobtaining the
necessary exchange ofinformation between policy analysts /decision
makers andthescientific community involved intheissue ."
C.Theworkshops on"Developing policies forresponding toclimatic change "
CVillach ~Austria /28September-2 October 1987 andBellagio -Italy /
9-13 November 1987 )
These meetings were called following thescientific consensus reached at
theVillach conference inorder to"start policy analysis toidentify the
widest possible range ofsocial responses for limiting oradapting to
climatic changes ".
Apart from thestatement mentioned inparagraph 28ofthis document /the
following conclusions /recommendations were presented :
■Immediate steps tolimit greenhouse gasemissions
(1)Ozone Protocol Immediate approval andimplementation ofthe
Protocol onSubstances that Deplete theOzone Layer (thereby reducing
CFCemissions ).Recommend that itberatified urgently andthat
after expedited scientific review theparties consider acceleration
oftheschedule for reductions inCFCs andeventual elimination of
emissions notonly forozone layer protection butparticularly for
greenhouse gaslimitation .
(2)Energy Policies
Governments should immediately begin toreexamine their long-term
energy strategies with thegoals ofachieving high end-use
efficiency /reducing multiple forms ofairpollution andreducing COg
emissions .Research anddevelopment onalternative (non-fossil )
energy systems must begreatly intensified .
(3)Déforestation Policies
Recommend support forincreased measures toreduce deforestation /
e.g. locally appropriate actions along thelines oftheTropical
Forest Action Plan /1987 .Such measures arecurrently necessary
because oftheeffects oftropical deforestation onagriculture /

-59-
energy ,soil erosion ,flooding anddrought ,etc.Thecontribution of
deforestation togreenhouse gasinduced climatic change isapowerful
additional reason formeasures toreduce deforestation .
(4)Other Trace Gases
Measures should betaken toavoid industrial andsocietal actions in
thefuture which unduly contribute toemissions ofgreenhouse gases
totheatmosphere .Examples include landfills thatemitmethane ;N20
reduction strategies ;agricultural practices ,etc .
Immediate steps tolimit the impact ofsea-level rise
(5)River and Coastal Zone Policies
International unions ofgeographic ,coastal andgeodetic and soil
sciences and/orgovernment agencies should develop maps toidentify
coastal areas vulnerable tosea-level rise ,river regulation and
intensifying land-use .Planning for large newindustrial ,tourist
and urban installations near the sea should allow for the risks of
possible sea-level rise .
Immediate steps toimprove understanding ofthegreenhouse effect and
options fordealing with it
(6)Management tools
Policy andscientific research should investigate further theutility
ofparticular goals asmanagement tools .Anenvironmental goal
expressed interms ofarate ofchange oftemperature orsea-level is
easy torelate toobserved historic rates ofchange .Such an
environmental goal isrelated totheambient concentration of
greenhouse gases (expressed interms ofCC^equivalence )andthus to
theemissions and foreach ofthese ,regulatory targets canbeset in
line with thelong-term environmental goal .

-60-
(7)Monitoring
Theproblem ofsignificant climate warming maycall fora
considerable increase inexisting available monitoring activities ,
both with regard toglobal climate anditsvariability andsea-level
changes ,atmospheric chemistry andrainfall chemistry ,aswell asthe
consequences fortheenvironment ofanysignificant warming .
Itistherefore recommended that WMO/WCP (World Meteorological
Organization /World Climate Programme )andUNEP /GEMS (Unite Nations
Environment Programme /Global Environmental Monitoring System )carry
out ajoint study of :
-what newclimate observing system activites arerequired for
monitoring thechanging climate ;
-what activities arerequired formonitoring theconsequences ofthe
changing climate .
The IOCthrough theGlobal SeaLevel Observing System should give
urgent attention tostrengthening themonitoring ofsea-level changes
worldwide .
(8)Research
ICSU ,UNEP andWMOjointly support theWorld Climate Programme (WCP),
which isthefocus forthefurther study ofboth basic research
issues concerning global climatic change andquestions about climatic
impact .TheWorld Climate Research Programme (WCRP )isanimportant
component oftheWCP,astheassessment ofpossible orlikely future
climatic changes rests onacomprehensive understanding oftheglobal
climate system .
Similarly ,thenewresearch programme IGBP (International Geosphere
Biosphere Programme ),initiated byICSU ,addresses thescientific
problems that wearenowconfronting when trying tounderstand the
biological andgeochemical interactions that contribute tofuture
climatic change andareofimportance forunderstanding climatic
impacts .
Increased support forscientific research forboth theWCRP andIGBP
should begiven high priority ."

61-
D.TheBrundtland Commission 'sreport
TheWorld Commission onenvironment andDevelopment hasbeen created on
thebasis ofanUNGeneral Assembly resolution in1983 asanindependent
body toformulate andpresent proposals andrecommandations concerning
thecritical environment anddevelopment problems with theaimof
promoting asustainable development .
Itsreport waspresented totheGeneral Assembly ofUNduring its42nd
Session inthe fall of1987 .
This report asks for aurgent start ofnegotiating procedures todevelop
international agreement onstrategies tocope with thegreenhouse issue .
Itissuggested toconsider :
"-improved monitoring andassessment oftheevolving phenomena ;
-increased research toimprove knowledge about theorigins ,
mechanisms ,andeffects ofthephenomena ;
-thedevelopment ofinternationally agreed policies forthereduction
ofthecausative gases ;and
-adoption ofstrategies needed tominimize damage andcope with the
climate changes andrising sea level ."
Thereport also suggests that such negotiations should aim atan
international convention on"management policies forall
environmentally reactive chemicals released into theatmosphere ".
E.TheEuropean Parliament resolution
TheEuropean Parliament hasadopted on12th September 1986 thefollowing
resolution onmeasures tocounteract therising concentration ofCOgin
the atmosphere :
"TheEuropean Parliament
-having regard tothemotion foraresolution tabled byMr.Linkohr on
research andpolicy measures tocounteract therising concentration
ofcarbon dioxide intheatmosphere ('greenhouse effect' )(Doc.
B2-1430 /84).

-62-
-having regard tothereport oftheCommittee onEnergy /Research and
Technology andtotheopinion oftheCommittee ontheEnvironment /
Public Health and Consumer Protection (Doc .A2-68 /86).
A.noting thegrowing scientific certainty that theearth’s average
temperature srising asaresult ofnon-natural releases into the
atmosphere ofcarbon-dioxide andpropellants from fossil-fuel
burning /intensive farming andindustrial activities and
deforestation respectively .
B.noting that anincreasing temperature build-up /which isgreater at
thepoles than attheequator /will bring about ashift inthe
earth 'sclimatic zones ,resulting inradical and,insome cases ,
disastrous changes ineconomic-activity patterns .
C.pointing outthat theonly scientifically established facts about
global temperature build-up arethescale thereof andthus the
number ofyears remaining until itseffects become apparent ,
assuming nochange inhuman-activity patterns .
D.pointing outtheneed toobtain essential scientific data onthe
slow butperceptible changes intheenvironment oftheworld in
order toestablish theextent ofthechanges taking place ,andthe
measures tobetaken toavoid orreduce their unfavourable effects
andtoexploit beneficial consequences .
1.Stresses that itisimperative tomake more-reaching countermeasures
than those currently implemented tocombat pollution ,provided such
measures are directed atreleases ofboth carbon dioxide and
propellants ,since ,contrary toearlier assumption ,thelatter are
just assignificant acause oftemperature build-up astheformer ;
2.Calls upon theCommission ,infuture activities inthefield of
agricultural ,industrial andenergy policy and innegotiations with
both national andinternational authorities ,toputforward measures
with aview toasubstantial reduction ofharmful discharges ,thus
benefiting theenvironment too;

-63
3.Emphasizes inthis connection theautomatic benefit tobegained
from large-scale energy-saving andrational useofenergy ,possibly
intandem with exploitation ofcleaner energy sources andflue-gas
purification respectively ;
4.Calls for aworldwide policy ofreafforestation ,forwhich the
Community should provide anexample with itsownforestry policy ;
.5.Calls forfinancial Community development policy measures tohelp
put anend tothedeforestation ofrain forests inThird World
countries ;
.6.Calls ontheCouncil when drawing upthenewframework programme for
research toallocate more resources tothearea ofclimatology ,
especially relating tochanging temperature gradients including
ocean-atmosphere interaction ;
7.Stresses that preventing pollution oftheworld 'sseas isan
essential requirement forclimatic stability ;
8.Recalls that itisincumbent upon the industrialized countries of
theNorthern hemisphere ,which are largely responsible for
jeopardizing climate ,toensure that thedeveloping nations are
given access tothe latest technological know-how ;
9.Instructs itsMembers ,incollaboration with therelevant scientific
quarters ,toinform thepublic -andparticularly theoperators
directly responsible -about theimplications ofthehuman
activities inquestion ,while explaining theneed foreffective
measures ;
10.Instructs itscommittee responsible toinclude intheir opinions a
climatic-impact assessment offuture Community-level activities with
aview toreducing thecurrent temperature build-up ;
11.Instructs itsPresident toforward this resolution andthe report of
itscommittee totheCouncil andtheCommission ."

1
Programa detrabalho daComissão sobre
aanálise dasopções deacção para fazer face
aos riscos associados ao "efeito deestufa "
I. CONTEÚDO DOPROGRAMA
0presente programa deverá fornecer oselementos necessários para
determinar opossível papel daComunidade edos Estados-membros
na definição epromoção dasmedidas necessárias para fazer
face aos riscos associados aoefeito deestufa ,noâmbito das
instâncias internacionais adequadas .
Tendo emconta este objectivo ,opresente programa detrabalho
abordará osseguintes temas :
A.Identificação dasopções deacção para prevenir /reduzir as
emissões dos gases responsáveis pelo efeito deestufa
Serão definidas asmedidas necessárias para atingir reduções estra ¬
tégicas dasemissões dosdiferentes gases responsáveis pelo efeito
deestufa ,oqueimplica ,para cada gás,adeterminação exacta
dasopções disponíveis para redução dasemissões ,donível de
redução dasemissões associado acada opção ,edoconjunto de
medidas necessárias para atingir reduções estratégicas .0potencial
para aprevenção /redução dasemissões será considerado para os
seguintes sectores :

?:
-2-
-produção deenergia ;
-consumo deenergia (incluindo transportes );
-produções industriais ;
-utilização deprodutos ;
-actividades agrícolas .
Será necessária umaabordagem apropriada quetome emconsideração
asdiferentes situações especificas decada pais ougrupo depaises ,
nomeadamente noquediz respeito a:
-nível dedesenvolvimento económico ;
-políticas deenergia emvigor ;
-geografia .
B. Implicações dasopções Dara redução das emissões
Aopção deredução dasemissões será analisada quanto aosseguintes
pontos :
-implicações técnicas eindustriais ;
-implicações económicas efinanceiras ;
-implicações políticas ,institucionais esociais .
C.Desenvolvimento deumquadro deanálise para tomada dedecisões
Proceder -se-áaodesenvolvimento deumquadro para estruturação
dasinformações disponíveis sobre todos osaspectos relativos
aoproblema doefeito deestufa ,deforma apermitir aidenti ¬
ficação daseventuais vantagens (emtermos deredução derisco
demudanças climáticas ,etc.),correspondentes àsdiferentes
opções deacção .0quadro tomará emconsideração osseguintes
pontos :
-emissões ereduções deemissões ;
-implicações detais reduções ;
-dados científicos disponíveis sobre asvantagens potenciais
decontrolos deemissões alternativas .

-3-
0quadro será concebido deforma ateremconta asincertezas
sobre asemissões ,aeficácia doscontrolos easmudanças cli¬
máticas eseus efeitos ,eirápermitir aidentificação dos
resultados mais prováveis dasdiferentes acções .
0quadro permitirá ainda examinar asimplicações deumadiamento
dasacções .Através daestruturação doproblema edaidentificação
dasáreas-chave deincerteza emrelação àsquais osefeitos são
mais sensiveis ,oquadro fornecerá umimportante instrumento
paraavaliar asacções epermitirá concentrar asfuturas investi -^
gações emquestões-chave dedecisão . /y
/
D.Avaliação daspossíveis vantagens dasdiferentes opções deacção
através deumquadro deanálise dedecisões edoestabelecimento
dos cenários climáticos edeimpacto resultantes daaplicação
dasopções decontrolo dasemissões
0quadro será utilizado para determinar ospossíveis resultados
dasopções deredução dasemissões alternativas edoseucalendário
(cenários ),indicando igualmente aprobabilidade relativa das
vantagens conseguidas .
E.Identificação eavaliação demedidas deadaptação necessárias
para osdiferentes cenários referidos noponto D.
Apesar daaplicação deacções decontrolo dasemissões ,continuam
aexistir riscos residuais associados aemissões passadas oufuturas
para aatmosfera .Será ,porconseguinte ,necessário identificar
medidas deadaptação (isto é,acções deprotecção daspessoas ,
bens eagricultura )deforma acombater tais riscos .Proceder -
-se-á àidentificação daamplitude elocalização dosriscos-chave
residuais eserão avaliadas ,emtermos dedespesas etempo ,as
implicações dasdiferentes medidas deadaptação ,que deverão
ser prioritárias deforma aassegurar umaredução máxima
dosriscos residuais comosrecursos disponíveis ,dando especial
atenção àsprincipais áreas derisco .

-4-
II.LISTA PORMENORIZADA DAS ACTIVIDADES
A.execução deste programa requer ,entre outras ,asseguintes acti-
vidades :
A.Opções deprevisão eredução dasemissões
i Preparação daprevisão deemissões para cada gásrespon ¬
sável pelo efeito deestufa .Tais emissões devem ser
analisadas por (a)região epor Cb)agrupamentos políticos
estratégicos eeconómicos .
•',/l>
fe'ÿ■y;%v ?.v;>
Ь:;
p/■
i.
I.
jt?*
'..ï
ife5ü
Kl11.
Ili
KatPfe'4ii Determinação dosfactores (para além daaplicação do
controlo )susceptiveis deinfluenciar emissões futuras .
Cálculo dasuaprobabilidade edesenvolvimento decenários
deemissões alternativas .
iii Identificação dasopções disponíveis decontrolo das
emissões para cada gás responsável pelo efeito deestufa .
Avaliação daamplitude das reduções potenciais para cada
cenário deemissão .
B.Avaliação das implicações dasopções decontrolo dasemissões
i Determinação deviabilidade ,custo ecalendário deaplicação
decada medida deredução dasemissões .
ii Avaliação dosefeitos económicos esociais .
iii Avaliação dosefeitos dedistribuição (a)emcada pais ,
(b)entre países e(c)entre agrupamentos políticos e
estratégi eos .
C.Estabelecimento deumquadro para integração dasinformações
adquiridas aolongo doprograma detrabalho

-5-
0quadro deverá serelaborado demodo a:
-apresentar asimplicações deacções alternativas ,incluindo
oscustos ebenefícios potenciais ;
-indicar asimplicações datomada deacção emmomentos diferentes ;
-indicar aforça depossiveis decisões (sobre estratégias
decontrolo oudeadaptação ),tendo emconta asincertezas
dasprevisões edosdados científicos disponíveis ;
-reservar umespaço para acontinuação dainvestigação ,indis ¬
pensável para apoiar asdecisões queterão desertomadas .
D.Avaliação dasestratégias decontrolo deemissões
i Determinação daspossiveis vantagens alcançadas através
dasestratégias decontrolo dasemissões .Este trabalho
exige uma revisão critica dosmecanismos deligação entre
asconcentrações dosgases responsáveis pelo efeito de
estufa easubida datemperatura doglobo ,incidindo
especialmente nossistemas de"feed back ",momentos de
aplicação eimplicações para osclimas regionais .
ii Preparação deumaavaliação daprobabi lidade deprevisões
alternativas esuas implicações combase numa revisão
critica .Este trabalho deverá integrar ospareceres dos
principais peritos eadeterminação dasprobabilidades
práticas quetraduzam aincerteza dosdiferentes resultados .
iii Combase nessas informações enasinformações obtidas
sobre asreduções dasemissões (A.)eassuas implicações
(B.),oquadro dedecisões desenvolvido emC.será utilizado
para avaliar oscustos ,benefícios eoutras implicações
dasopções alternativas decontrolo dasemissões .

-6-
E.Avaliação dasmedidas deadaptação
i Revisão dasimplicações dosdiferentes niveis deaquecimento
nas infra-est ruturas efornecimento dealimentos naEuropa ;
identificação deoutras implicações-chave .Avaliação
dosefeitos sobre outros agrupamentos politicos eeconómicos .
ii Revisão dasopções quepodem seraplicadàs para responder
àspotenciais alterações (i)naEuropa (por ex.novas
variedades decolheitas ,diferentes práticas deplanea ¬
mento ,etc.).
iii Avaliação dos custos ebeneficios demedidas deadaptação
alternativas ,combase naavaliação discutida emD.e
utilizando oquadro desenvolvido emC.;avaliação da
probabilidade detais medidas semostrarem eficazes ,
tendo emconta osefeitos previstos .
III .ORIENTAÇÕES PARA APLICAÇÃO DOPROGRAMA
A.Naexecução deste programa aComissão terá inteiramente em
conta asoutras actividades relevantes dentro daComunidade
eanivel mundial ,tais como :
-oprograma deinvestigação daCEsobre climatologia eperigos
naturais ;
-osresultados derecentes conferências internacionais (tais
como aConferência sobre Alterações Atmosféricas ,Toronto ,
Junho 88);
-ogrupo detrabalho UNEP /WMOsobre alterações climáticas ;
etc .
Para esse fim,aComissão estabelecerá uma cooperação
adequada comasprincipais organizações quesededicam a
estas actividades .

-7-
B.Com aassistência doComité referido noartigo 1QdaDecisão ,
aComissão definirá osprocessos eetapas concretas para este
programa ,bemcomo asinformações aserem fornecidas pelos Estados -
-membros .
Asorganizações edepartamentos governamentais competentes
nos Estados-membros serão associados aeste trabalho através
doComité acima referido .
IV.FINANCIAMENTO DOPROGRAMA
Osfundos necessários para aexecução doprograma foram calculados
em6milhões deECUs .

Projecto
de
Resolução doConselhorelativaao"efeitodeestufa
saComunidade "
0Conselho dasComunidades Europeias ,
Tendo emconta oTratado queinstitui aComunidade Económica Europeia ,
Tendo emconta oprojecto deresolução daComissão ,
Considerando queoTratado queinstitui aComunidade Económica Europeia ,com a
redacçlo quelhefoidada pelo Acto Único Europeu ,prevê odesenvolvimento ea
aplicação deumapolítica comunitária emmatéria deambiente equeesse mesmo
Tratado prevê que aComunidade tenha emconta ,naelaboração dasuaacção neste
domínio ,nomeadamente osdados científicos etécnicos disponíveis easvantagens
ecustos quepodem decorrer daacção oudaausência deacç&o ;
Considerando que apresente resolução seinspira nasconsiderações contidas na
Resolução relativa aumprograma deacção dasComunidades Europeias emmatéria
deambiente (2),de19deOutubro de1987 ,nomeadamente aoportunidade deactuar
aonível adequado,' bemcomo anecessidade decoordenar asact1vidades aonível
Internacional ,avaliar asvantagens eoscustos dasacções previstas epreparar
aacção ,soboponto devista técnico epolítico ,deforma apropriada ;
Considerando que osdados cientificos disponiveis indicam ,nomeadamente os
resultados dosprogramas depesquisa emmatéria deambiente daComunidade ,
que acomposição daatmosfera está aserobjecto dealterações signifi ¬
cativas provocadas pelas actividades humanas equecombase nosmodelos
climatolôgicos disponiveis ,talfacto poderia implicar ,dentro deum
determinado prazo ,alterações climáticas devido aochamado efeito de
estufa econsequentemente ,umimpacte importante noambiente ,noindividuo
enasactividades respectivas ;
(1)JOn°C328 de7.12.1987 ,P.1 .

-2-
Consi derando que ,tendo emconta anatureza eadimensão dos riscos provocados
pelo efeito deestufa ,urge proceder aumaanálise daspossibilidades deacção
destinadas èprevenção ouredução desses riscos ;
Considerando que,porocasião deconferências internacionais recentes ,beregi *
touumamplo consenso rslati vamente ènecessidade urgente deprever medidas
destinadas areduzir asemissões dosgases responsáveis pelo efeito deestufa ;
Considerando que ,tendo emconta acomplexidade doproblema "efeito deestufa "
easimplicações consideráveis ediversas quer desse efeito quer dasmedidas
previsíveis para evitar ouminimizar asconsequências respectivas ,énecessária
umaprodunda análise prévia dasopções políticas possíveis ,adoptadas mediante
metodologias apropriadas que tenham nomeadamente emconta ,deforma adequada ,
asincertezas quesemantêm relati vamente adiversos aspectos docssunto emca^
sa;
Considerando que édamaior importância que aComunidade eosEstado-membros rei
pectlvos seencontrem emcondições deprestar umcontributo fundamental para a
análise eelaboração daseventuais decisões políticas aadoptar noscontextos
internacionais adequados ,afimdeactuarem ,daforma mais eficaz ,contra osris
COBdealterações climáticas ,
Acolhe favoravelmente acomunicação daComissão relativa ao"efeito deestuda e
aComunidade "eaprova asprincipais concLusões erecomendações nela contidas ;
Declara qua aComunidade deveria prestar atenção crescente aosriscos das poss_1 _
veis alterações climáticas ,associados aoefeito deestufa ,equedevéria contrj
buir ,deforma substancial ,para fomentar aanálise eodebate relativament às
medidas possíveis destinadas aobstara esses riscos ;
Acolhe favoravelmente ainiciativa daComissão delançamento deumprograma de
trabalho relativo àavaliação dasopções políticas destinadas afazer face aos
riscos associados aoefeito deestufa eaprova osobjectivos desse programa ;

•-? -3-
Insta osEstado8-membro8 acooperarem actívamente com aComissão naexecução
doprograma detrabalho acima referido eacoordenarem asactividades respecti .
vasnodomínio doefeito deestufa noâmbito desse programa ;
Insta aComissão aapresentar aoCOnselho eaoParlamento Europeu umrelatório
sobre aevolução registada /emmeados de1990 /eumrelatório final sobre os
resultados obtidos através desse programa esobre asconclusóes retiradas no
final de1991 .