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KOMMISSION DEREUROPÄISCHEN GEMEINSCHAFTEN
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MITTEILUNG ANDENRATKOM(88 )656endg .
BrCIssel ,den16.November 1988
"Der Treibhauseffekt und die Gemeinschaft "
betreffend das
Arbeitsprogramm derKommission zurBeurteilung der
politischen Optionen zurVerringerung dermitdem
"Treibhauseffekt "verbundenen Risiken
und
Entwurf einer
ENTSCHLIESSUNG DES RATES
über den "Treibhauseffekt und
die Gemeinschaft "
(VonderKommission vorgelegt )

Entwurf einer Mitteilung derKommission anden Rat :
■DER TREIBHAUSEFFEKT
UND DIE6EMEINSCHAFT "

-2-
INHALT
Absatz Seite
ZUSAMMENFASSUNG UNO SCHLUSSFOLGERUNGEN A-C 4-11
I. EINFÜHRUNG INDIEPROBLEMATIK DESTREIBHAUSEFFEKTES
DerTreibhauseffekt kurz gefaßt 1-2 12-13
Treibhausgase :Emissionsquellen undTendenzen der 3-10 13-20
atmosphärischen Konzentration
Potentielle Auswirkungen zunehmender Treibhausgaskon -11-13 20-27
zentrationen auf das Klima
Potentielle Auswirkungen vonKlimaänderung 14-21 27-32
II.DEP INTERNATIONALE RAHMEN UND PERSPEKTIVEN
Einleitung 22 32-33
Dieweltweite Konferenz über "TheChanging 23 33-38
Atmosphère "(Toronto ,27.-30 .Juni 1980
Mögliche künftige Entwicklungen 24-28 38-40
III .ÜBERBLICK ÜBER MÖGLICHE MASSNAHMEN
Einleitung 29-31 4C-41
Forschungstatigkeiten 32-36 42-44
l/orbeuqende Maftnahmen 37-42 44-48 Vorbeugende Maßnahmen

-3-
Absatz Seite
Geplante Anpassungsmaßnahmen 43-45 48-49
Zusammenarbeit mitEntwicklungsländern 46 49-50
IV.SCHLUSSFOLGERUNGEN OER KOMMISSION 47-58 51-54
ANHANG
Die "Villacher "Konferenz A 56
(Villach-Österreich ,9.-15 .Oktober 1985 )
DasEWG-Symposium uber "CO^andother greenhouse gases " B 57
(Brussel ,3.-5 .November 1986 )
DerWorkshop "Developing policies forresponding C 58-60
toclimatic change "(Villach -Österreich ,28.September -
2.Oktober 1987 undBellagio -Italien ,
9.-13 .November 1987 )
Der Bericht der Brundtland Kommission D 61
Entschließung desEuropäischen Parlaments E 61

•4~
ZUSAMMENFASSUNG UND SCHLUSSFOLGERUNGEN
A. ZUSAMMENFASSUNG
A.1 . Einleitung
Am19.Juli 1988 beschloß dieKommission ,eine interdirektionale
Gruppe zubilden ,diebisMitte November 1988 erste Gedanken für
eine mögliche Gemeinschaftsaktion imHinblick aufden
"Treibhausef fekt "entwickeln soll .
Ziel dieses Dokuments istes,einen Überblick über diese Problematik
zuvermitteln undSchlußfolgerungen undEmpfehlungen fürunmittelbar
aufzunehmende Arbeiten ,dringend einzuleitende Maßnahmen unddie
mögliche Rolte derEuropäischen Gemeinschaft inderinternationalen
Diskussion umdieses komplexe Thema zuunterbreiten .
A.2 . Der Treibhausef fekt
A.2.1 .Diederzeitigen klimatischen Bedingungen derErde werden weitgehend
durch dieZusammensetzung derAtmosphäre bestimmt .
Wasserdampf ,Kohlendioxid (CO^),Methan (CH^),Distickstoffoxid
(N^O),Ozon (07)und,neuerdings Fluor -Chlor -Kohlenwasserstof fe
(FCKW )absorbieren einen Teil derInfrarotstrahlung ,diedie Erde
zurKompensation dereintreffenden Sonnenstrahlen erzeugt ,und
speichern diese teilweise inderAtmosphäre .
A.2.2 .DerMensch verändert heute miteiner niedagewesenen Geschwindigkeit
dieZusammensetzung derAtmosphäre .Konzentrationen sämtlicher
sogenannter "Treibhausgase "sind immer mehr durch denEinfluß
menschlicher Aktivitäten aufdiebiogeochemischen Zyklen dieser
Stoffe bedingt .Diese Einflüsse erreichen einsolches Ausmaß ,daß
siemöglicherweise zuwesentlichen Klimaänderungen führen können .
Wirwissen heute ,daßderWärmehaushalt derErde eine Veränderung
durchläuft undsich daraus jenach Umfang derUmstellungen
unweigerlich auch Klimaänderungen ergeben werden .

-5-
A.2.3 .Daswichtigste Treibhausgas istCO^dessen Emissionen hauptsächlich
durch dieVerwendung fossiler Brennstoffe (5G-Tonnen Kohle pro
Jahr *),dieVerbrennung vonHolz unddenAbbau derBiomasse des
Waldes durch Rodung (0/5-2G-Tonnen proJahr )bedingt sind .
COgverursacht gegenwärtig etwas mehr als50%desTreibhauseffekts .
Weitere 25%sind aufFCKW zurückzuführen /diez.B. alsAerosole /für
Sprühdosen /Klimaanlagen /Kühlschränke /Lösemittel /Verpackungen
usw .verwendet werden .Derrestliche Treibhauseffekt entsteht durch
Methan (CH^)(Viehhaltung /Naßreisanbau /Erdgasgewinnung /
ineffiziente Verbrennung vonBiomasse undKohle )/durch
Distickstoffoxid (NgO)(Verwendung fossiler Brennstoffe /
Stickstoffdüngung )unddurch troposphärisches Ozon ,dasbei
photochemischen Vorgängen inderverschmutzten Atmosphäre erzeugt
wird .DieTreibhausgasemissionen haben inden letzten Jahrzehnten
erheblich zugenommen .
A.2.A. Nach denErgebnissen globaler Klimamodelle istdavon auszugehen ,daß
diedurchschnittliche Oberflächentemperatur derErde durch eine
Verdoppelung dervorindustriellen äquivalenten Treibhausgas ¬
konzentrationen umetwa 1/5-A/5°Cansteigen wird .Beiden
gegenwärtigen Tendenzen wird dies voraussichtlich biszumJahr 2050
geschehen .
A.2.5 .Diederzeitigen Klimamodelle können keine zuverlässige
regionsspezifische Einschätzung derpotentiellen Klimaänderungen
bieten /diedemerwähnten mittleren Anstieg der
Oberflächentemperatur entsprechen .
Groben Schätzungen zufolge könnte derTemperaturanstieg inEuropa
größer sein alsimweltweiten Durchschnitt .
A.2.6 .Dieindirekten Folgen solcher Klimaänderungen lassen sich wiefolgt
zusammenfassen :
-Anstieg desMeeresspiegels (von30cmauf 1/5mbeieiner
Erwärmung vonetwa 1/5-A/5°C);
-Abbau desMeereises ;
-Verringerung derWasservorräte ineinigen Gebieten ;
-Veränderungen derlandwirtschaftlichen Produktivität ;
-Auswirkungen aufdiemenschliche Gesundheid unddieÖkologie .
if O
1G-Tonne =10 Tonnen =1.000 Millionen Tonnen

-6-
A.3 . Internationaler Rahaen undPerspektiven
A.3.1 .Einwissenschaftlicher Konsens uber dieoben beschriebenen
Grundlagen desTreibhauseffekts wurde aufder "International
Conference ontheassessment andtherole ofCO^andofother
greenhouse gases inclimate variations andassociated impacts "
(Villach ,9.-15 .Oktober 1985 )erreicht .
A.3.2 .OieSchlußfolgerungen derVillacher Konferenz wurden aufeinem
EWG-Symposium (3.-5 .November 1986 )uber "CO^andother greenhouse
gases :climate andassociated impacts "undaufWorkshops inVillach
(28.September -2.Oktober 1987 )und inBellagio (9.-13 .November
1987 )zumThema "Developing policies forresponding toclimatic
change "weiterentwickelt .
A.3.3 .Mitdem Treibhauseffekt befaßte sich auch die Brundtland-Kommission .
ImAnschluß anihre Empfehlungen fand vom 27.-30.Juni 1988 in
Toronto eine weltweite Konferenz über "Thechanging atmosphere ,
implications forglobal security "statt .Aufdieser Konferenz
wurden u.a .folgende Maßnahmen empfohlen :
-Ratifizierung desProtokolls vonMontreal über Stoffe ,diedie
Czonschicht schädigen .DasProtokoll sollte 1990 revidiert werden ,
umdienahezu vollständige Beseitigung derEmissionen von
halogenierten FCKW biszumJahr 20CC sicherzustellen .
-Festlegung vonEnergiepolitiken zurReduzierung vonCO.,undanderen
Spurengasen ,umdieRisiken einer künftigen globalen Erwärmung zu
verringern .
-BiszumJahr 2005 Verringerung vonCOg-Emissionen umetwa 20%der
Werte von1988 ,alserstes Globalziel derIndustrieländer .
-Zielsetzungen fürVerbesserungen desEnergiewirkungsgrads ,die in
unmittelbarem Zusammenhang mitderVerringerung vonC0^undanderen
Treibhausgasen stehen .
-Einleitung derArbeiten zurEntwicklung einer Globalkonvention .
-Schaffung eines "World Atmosphere Fund".

-7-
A.3.4 .Kurzfristig werden dieobengenannten internationalen Bestrebungen
möglicherweise bereits 1989 zurEinleitung derVorbereitungen einer
Vereinbarung über denTreibhauseffekt führen .Oie
Emissionsbegrenzung fürTreibhausgase würden dann imRahmen dieser
Vereinbarung durch Protokolle festgelegt .
A.3.5 .Oienächstliegenden wichtigen Veranstaltungen zurVorbereitung
dieser Konvention werden voraussichtlich sein :
-derinternationale Workshop über Gesetzgebung undPolitik ,der
Anfang 1989 inOttawa stattfinden soll ;
-eine hochrangige politische Konferenz ,die imHerbst 1989 vom
niederländischen Umweltministerium veranstaltet werden soll ;
-DieSecond World Climate Conference imJuni 1990 inGenf ;
-DieIntergovernmental Conference onsustainable Development ,die
1992 stattfinden soll unddenHöhepunkt dieser Ereignisse bilden
könnte .
A.4 . Hôgliche MaBnahmen
A.4.1 .DiePolitiken zurVerringerung desTreibhauseffekts können
Vorbeugungs -und/oder Anpassungsmaßnahmen umfassen .
A.4.2 .Vorbeugungsmaßnahmen zielen aufdieEindämmung der
Treibhausgasemissionen ab,umdievoraussichtlichen Auswirkungen zu
verringern .
Diewichtigsten Interventionsbereiche inbezug aufCt^sind der
Energiesektor insgesamt unddieForstwirtschaft indentropischen
Regionen .
Beispiele fürenergiepolitische Maßnahmen ,diezurEindämmung der
^-Emissionen beitragen könnten :
-Steigerung desEnergiewirkungsgrads (inbezug aufVersorgung und
Nachfrage );
•Umstellung aufkohlenstoffarme Brennstoffe ;
-verstärkte Nutzung vonerneuerbaren Energiequellen undBiomasse ;
-verstärkte Nutzung sicherer Kernenergie .

-8-
OerFörderung innovativer Energietechnologien zurUnterstützung
derartiger Maßnahmen kommt dabei besondere Bedeutung zu.
Langfristig könnten neue Energiesysteme /dienicht aufKohle
basieren /einen wesentlichen Beitrag zurEindämmung der
CO^Emissionen leisten .
Natürlich sind nicht alle derobengenannten Maßnahmen gleichermaßen
wirksam .Darüber hinaus isteine sorgfältige Einschätzung ihrer
wirtschaftlichen Rentabilität erforderlich .
ZuderForstpolitik sollte eine Umkehrung dergegenwärtigen Tendenz
zurEntwaldung ,insbesondere indenÄquatorregionen ,angestrebt
werden .Dies würde insbesondere dieverstärkte Verwendung von
Ersatzstoffen fürHolz ,das indiesen Gebieten vorzugsweise als
Brennstoff eingesetzt wird ,sowie dieFörderung beständiger
Agrartechniken erfordern ,sodaßdielandwirtschaftliche Expansion
keine weiträumigen Waldrodungen durch Abbrennen beinhaltet .
A.4.3 .Maßnahmen zurVerringerung derEmissionen vonTreibhausgasen wie
CH.undN,0sind angesichts derUnsicherheitsfaktoren hinsichtlichh c
derEmissionen dieser Stoffe schwieriger zubestimmen .
Folgende Möglichkeiten sollten geprüft werden :
-Einschränkung desCH^-Verlusts beiderFörderung ,demTransport
und dem Einsatz von Erdgas .
-Einschränkung derCH^-Emissionen vonMülldeponien .
-Einschränkung derN20-Emissionen beiderVerwendung fossiler
Brennstoffe .
-Verbesserungsmöglichkeiten beiderViehhaltung ,beim Reisanbau und
demBetrieb vonKlärteichen ,umdieFreisetzung vonCH^
einzuschränken .
~Verbesserungsmöglichkeiten beiderKunst stoffdüngung ,umdie
Freisetzung vonNgOausstickstoffhaltigen Düngemitteln
einzuschränken .
A.4.4 .Dievollständige Beseitigung derFCKW-Emissionen sollte biszumJahr
2000 durch Produktionsauflagen ,Rückgewinnung ,Recycling oder
Vernichtung derFCKW invorhandenen Erzeugnissen möglich sein .

-9-
A.4.5.Anpassungsmaßnahmen (z.B. zurVermeidung oder Verringerung von
Schäden ,diedurch Klimaänderungen undderen Folgen entstehen )
können inbezug aufAuswirkungen notwendig sein ,diesich trotz
vorbeugender Aktionen alsunvermeidbar erweisen .
Zumgegenwärtigen Zeitpunkt istesnicht möglich ,
Anpassungsmaßnahmen ,die inderGemeinschaft erforderlich sein
könnten ,näher zubeschreiben ,dakeine zuverlässigen
regionsspezifischen Abschätzungen dermöglichen Folgen vorliegen .
Grundsätzlich könnten aufgrund desAnstiegs desMeeresspiegels
folgende Anpassungsmaßnahmen erforderlich sein :Bauvon
Seedeichen /Flutdämmen ,staatliche Flutversicherungen ,Bauvon
Reservoirs (zurBekämpfung deserhöhten Salzgehalts ),Evakuierung
entwickelter Regionen intiefliegenden Gebieten ,sonstige Umsiedlung
vonBevölkerungen ausgefährdeten Gebieten ,Schutz derÖkosysteme in
Küstenlage .
Weitere Untersuchungen sind notwendig ummögliche
Anpassungsmaßnahmen inanderen Gebieten wieder Forst -und
Landwirtschaft zuentwickeln .
B. SCHLUSSFOLGERUNGEN BEZÜGLICH DESWISSENSSTANDS ÜBER DEN
TREIBHAUSEFFEKT
B.1 . DieZusammenseztung derErdatmosphäre wird durch menschliche
Aktivitäten wesentlich verändert .
Aufgrund vonErgebnissen globaler Klimamodelle sind sich
Wissenschaftlicher darüber einig ,daßeine Verdoppelung der
äquivalenten ^-Konzentrationen inderAtmosphäre zueinem Anstieg
derdurchschnittlichen Oberflächentemperatur umetwa 1,5-A,5°C
führen wird .Dies wird voraussichtlich Mitte desnächsten
Jahrhunderts der Fall sein .
Wissenschaftlichen Daten zufolge wird sich diedaraus resultierende
Änderung derdurchschnittlichen globalen Klimabedingungen vonallen
Klimaten unterscheiden ,dieinderhistorischen Vergangenheit undin
denjüngsten geologischen Zeiträumen existieren .

10-
B.2 . Dieverschiedenen Auswirkungen einer solchen Klimaänderung undihre
sozio-ökonomi sehen Folgen lassen sich gegenwärtig imeinzelnen noch
nicht zuverlässig abschätzen .Erste Arbeiten zudiesem Thema zeigen
jedoch ,daßdieRisiken alarmierend sind undsich daraus vermutlich
verheerende direkte undindirekte Folgen ergeben werden .
B.3. Kürzliche internationale Veranstaltungen haben einBewußtsein der
Dringlichkeit inderweltweiten Diskussion umdiese Fragen geweckt .
Eshatsich deutlich gezeigt ,daßbrauchbare Strategien zumjetzigen
Zeitpunkt zuerarbeiten sind unddieForschungsarbeiten beschleunigt
werden müssen .
C. SCHLUSSFOLGERUNGEN DER KOMMISSION
C.O. Diewichtigsten Schlussfolgerungen desBerichts sind nachstehend
zusammengef aßt .Eine vollständige Darstellung istdemKapitel IV
dieses Dokuments zuentnehmen .
C.1 . DieGemeinschaft sollte die Wiener Konvention zum Schutz der
Ozonschicht unddasProtokoll vonMontreal über Stoffe ,diedie
Ozonschicht schädigen ,uneingeschränkt anwenden undsich anden
erneuten Verhandlungen füreinsolches Protokoll beteiligen .
C.2. DieGemeinschaft sollte dieEinleitung vonGesprächen über die
Möglichkeiten einer internationalen Vereinbarung zumSchutz der
Atmosphäre begrüßen .Siesollte bereit sein ,einen wesentlichen
Beitrag zurVorbereitung undAushandlung einer solchen Vereinbarung
zuleisten .Darin könnten unter anderem spezifische Sollwerte für
dieBegrenzung derTreibhausgasemissionen sowie Maßnahmen und
Programme zurEmissionsverringerung festgelegt werden .
C.3 . Daher sollte dieKommission unverzüglich einumfangreiches Programm
zurErarbeitung vonLösungsmöglichkeiten einleiten ,mitdemdie
Durchführbarkeit ,Kosten undvoraussichtlichen Ergebnisse möglicher
Maßnahmen zurBegrenzung derEmissionen vonTreibhausgasen geprüft
werden .

-11-
AlsSchwerpunkte eines solchen Programms wären vorzusehen :
-Bestimmung undtechnische Beurteilung vonMaßnahmen undTechnologien
zurVerringerung derEmissionen vonTreibhausgasen ;
-Untersuchung derwirtschaftlichen ,industriellen ,
energiewirtschaftlichen ,sozialen undinstitutionellen Folgen und
Auswirkungen dieser Maßnahmen undTechnologien ;
-Strukturierung undBewertung politischer Szenarien ,insbesondere im
Hinblick aufetwaige strategische Ziele für^-Grenzwerte ;
-Erstellung eines Rahmens fürdieEntscheidungsanalyse ;
-Bestimmung undBewertung vonAnpassungsmaßnahmen .
C.4 . DieGemeinschaft und ihre Mitgliedstaaten sollten beiihren
politischen Entscheidungen (inbezug aufdenEnergiesektor oder
andere einschlägige Bereiche )absofort dasProblem potentieller
Klimaänderungen imZusammenhang mitdemTreibhauseffekt
berücksichtigen .Damit lassen sich künftig höhere Kosten vermeiden .
C.5 . Darüber hinaus sollten schon jetzt dringende Maßnahmen zur
Verstärkung undAusweitung derBemühungen imBereich der
Energieeinsparung ,derSteigerung desEnergiewirkungsgrads ,der
Entwicklung neuer Energiequellen undderVerwendung sicherer
Kerntechnologien beschlossen werden .Diebeschleunigte Entwicklung
undFörderung innovativer kommerzieller Technologien indiesen
Bereichen sollte dabei hohe Priorität erhalten .
Angesichts derEnergie -undUmweltanf orderungen isteine solche
Aktion ohne Zweifel gerechtfertigt ,unabhängig vonden
Unsicherheitsfaktoren inbezug aufeinige wissenschaftliche Aspekte
des Treibhauseffekts .
Vongroßer Wichtigkeit wäre dieMöglichkeit dieEnergiewirksamkeits ¬
verbesserungen alsCOg-Verringerungen zuquantifizieren .
C.6 . DieGemeinschaft sollte ferner intensive Forschungsprogramme zu
allen einschlägigen Aspekten desTreibhauseffekts unterstützen und
neueEnergiequellen entwickeln diefähig sindCOg-Emissionen zu
verringern .

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I. ANINTRODUCTION TOTHE GREENHOUSE ISSUE
What the "greenhouse effect *IsInshort
1.Theclimate conditions weexperience onearth aredue,among other
things ,tothepresence oftheatmosphere around itandtoitspresent
composition .Without theatmosphere ,theaverage surface temperature of
theearth ,which ispresently ofaround 15°C ,would beaslowas-18°C .
Infact ,theheat balance oftheearth ,which receives radiation from
thesunandreflects orre-emits itinto thespace ,islargely governed
bythecomposition oftheatmosphere .
Firstly water vapour ,mostly concentrated inthe lower atmosphere ,isan
effective absorber ofboth incoming solar andoutgoing infrared earth 's
radiation andcontributes very significantly todetermine theaverage
surface temperature ofthe earth .
Moreover ,other substances such ascarbon dioxide (CC^),methane (CH^),
nitrous oxide (NjO)andchlorof luorocarbons (CFCs )have theproperty of
being nearly transparent toincoming radiation from thesunbutto
retain some oftheenergy re-emitted bytheearth aslong wavelenght
infra-red radiation .
Ozone also contributes totheabsorption ofinfra-red radiation emitted
bytheearth .^
Theoverall outcome ofthis mechanism isthat part oftheradiant energy
coming from thesun istrapped inthe lower atmosphere .
2.Thepresent scientific knowledge allows ustoconclude that any
significant change intheatmospheric concentrations oftheabove
mentioned substances would result inachange oftheglobal thermal
balance ofthe earth .
(1)Stratospheric ozone (the "ozone layer ")isastrong absorber of
ultraviolet radiation from the sun .Moreover ozone contributes tothe
absorption ofinfrared radiation from theearth .Tropospheric ozone
contributes therefore totrap heat inthe lower atmosphere .Anychange
inthe vertical distribution ofozone would contribute toaffect the
thermal balance ofthe earth .

-13
Inparticular anincrease intheatmospheric concentrations ofC02,
CFCs,CH^,N20,tropospheric ozone ,which areoften called "greenhouse
gases ",would result inmore heat tobetrapped inthelower troposphere
andthen insome warming andpossible associated climate changes
depending onthesize ofsuch greenhouse gases concentration increase .
This phenomenon isusually referred toasthe "greenhouse effect "
because itsbasic mechanism issimilar tothat inagreenhouse where
incoming radiation energy from thesunispartly transformed toinfrared
radiation bytheground ,warms theairand isthen retained bytheglass
from escaping again .
Greenhouse gases :emission sources andatmospheric concentration trends
3.Theatmospheric concentrations ofallmost important greenhouse gases
have increased over recent times andare still increasing .
4.Incase ofcarbon dioxide (CO.,) :
a.Emission sources :
Most ofanthropogenic C0_emissions areduetofossil fuels burning
(around 5Gtons ofcarbon peryear ).Moreover asignificant
contribution comes from burning ofwood anddecomposition of
biomass related todeforestation (uncertain quantity ,most likely in
therange 0,5-2Gtons ofcarbon peryear corresponding toarate
ofdeforestation inthetropical regions of10to20millions ha/y).
C02world yearly emissions fromburning offossil fuels have
increased in25years ,since 1960 ,from around 2,5Gtofcarbon to
more than 5Gtofcarbon in1985 .
Coal andoilgive bynowanalmost equal contribution toemission
with slightly more than 2Gtofcarbon each ,followed bygaswith
less than 1Gtofcarbon peryear .
Itisestimated that since onecentury ,around 170Gtofcarbon have
been emitted ,ofwhich around 100Gtinthelast 25years .
* 9
1Gton =10 tons =1000 million tons

14-
Theshare ofCOgemissions peryear from fossil fuels fordifferent
parts oftheworld and itsrecent evolution isshowed inthe
following table :
CO^emissions inmillion tons ofcarbon /y
and asXofworld total
I 1950 I 1965 I1980I
I Region |Mt/y* X IMt/y* IX IMt/y*IX I
INorth America I723 44,7 I1003 I32,1 |1380|26,7 I
|URSS andEastern Europe I291 18,0 I750 124,0 |12511 24,2 I
(China I23 1/4(178 15,7 |4391 8,5 I
IWestern Europe J379 23,4 I643 120,6 |853|16 ,5 I
|japan ,Australia I45 2,8 (137 14,4 |300 I5,8 I
(Developing Countries I92 5/7I250 18,0 1631 112,2 I
lothers (worldwide gas I63 3/9I163 15,2 |310 16,0 I
Iflaring ,bunkers ) ! I 1 1 I I
I
(World total
II
I1618
I100I
I3126
!1 1
1100 I
1 1I
51701100
II
I
I
Source :"Atmosphere carbon dioxide andtheglobal carbon cycle "
USDOE/ER-0239 ,edited byJ.R. Trabalka ,Dec .1985
*absolute figures arerounded tonext million ton .
Thefigures above show thedramatic increase ofCC^emissions inall
regions oftheworld from 1950 to1980 .
Theshare ofthe total world emissions ofChina anddeveloping
countries hassignificantly increased inthesame period duei.a .to
thedemographic trends inthese regions .

-15-
ThetrendsofCO2worldemissionfromdifferentfossilfuelsforthe
period1950-1982 areshowninnextfigure,(source:USD0E/ER-0239
reportreferred toabove):
““F ' '.-_ I ^•4000 I- /
3000-
Or
|1000
Z800:Zr :|600-S' -
“400^ *7
o ..J.-/“-&У*-X
1001-_ I_ I_ I_ I
1950 1960 1970 1980_ Year
Thesteep increase ofyearlyC0^emissions from oilandnatural gas
has been slowed down oreven reversed after the first oil crisis ,
thus reflecting theworldwide energy policy efforts torestrict the
useofoil,byimprovements inenergy efficiency andanincreased
useofnuclear energy and/orsolid fuels .Consequently CO^
emissions from coal have increased after the first oilshock ,from a
yearly rate of1,72% to2,59% upto1982 .
Emission data for1985 show thefollowing contribution from various
fossil fuels :
IFuel
I11985CC>2emissions in|
1miIlion tons carbon /y|
Igas 1 807 1
Ioil 1 2189 I
Icoal I 2181 I
Igasflaring I 52 I
ITotal I 5229 I
Source :I.Mintzer ,WRI,1988

-ΊΟ-
Percapita C02emissions from fossil fuels fordifferent countries
areshown inthefollowing table ,referred to1982 :
I
ICountry |Per
lofcapita C02emissions (tons
carbon per inhabitant )I
I
I United States | 4,9 I
I German Dem.Rep. | 4,9 I
I Canada | 4,4 I
I Czechoslovakia | 4,1 I
I Australia | 3,9 I
I Soviet Union | 3,3 I
I Poland | 3,0 I
I Belgium | 3,0 I
I Germany ,Fed.Rep .| 2,9 I
I United Kingdom | 2,5 I
I Netherlands | 2,5 I
I France | 2,0 I
I Japan | 1/9 I
I Italy I 1/5 I
I Spain I 1/4 I
I China | 0,5 I
I Brazil | 0,3 I
I India | 0,1 I
! World average | 1/0 I
Calculated from :Smith ,I.M. (1988 ):CO^andclimate change ;
Draft technical review ,EIA Coal Research ,London ,and UN
statistical data
b.Atmospheric concentrations trends :
Since 1960 to1985 theaverage yearly atmospheric concentration of
C02hasincreased from315to345ppm.*
There isevidence that thepre-industrial concentration ofthis gas
wasaround 275-285 ppm.Therate ofconcentration increase forC02
hasaccelerated inrecent years :itwas anaverage of1ppmper
year inthe70ties and isbynowabout 1,5ppmperyear .
*
1ppm=partpermillion =0,0001X

-17-
C02concentration increase isdetermined bytheeffect ofmanmade
emissions ^mostly duetofossil fuel burning anddeforestation /on
theglobal carbon cycle :natural carbon sinks (mainly theoceans
andvegetation )arenolonger sufficient tobalance such increasing
emissions andthis leads tomore CO^stored intheatmosphere .
5.Incase ofchlorof luorocarbons (CFC's):
a.Emissions sources :
CFC'sareman-made chemicals used inavariety ofapplications such
asaerosol spray cans ,airconditioning /refrigerators /solvents /
packaging ,etc .
b.Atmospheric concentration trends
Theatmospheric concentration ofCFC-11 and CFC-12 atfour sites
widely dispersed intheworld ranged from 0/21to0/23ppb*and0/37
to0/39ppbrespectively in1985 .
Even ifthepresent atmospheric concentration ofthese substances is
byseveral orders ofmagnitude lower than that ofC02,onehasto
note that therate ofgrowth ofsuch concentration hasbeen much
higher than that ofC02/around 5-7% peryear,theefficiency in
trapping heat ofsome ofthem is10/000higher than C02'ona
molecule bymolecule basis andtheresidence time intheatmosphere
ofsome ofthese substances isextremely long (uptomore than 100
years ).
*
1ppb*part perbillion =0,0000001%

18-
6.Incaseofmethane (CH,):
■" ■■ 'и
a.Emission sources :
Present man-made emissions ofCH^comemainly from livestock ,rice
paddy fields ,natural gasexploitation ,burning ofbiomass andcoal .
Natural emissions from biota arealso relevant and theoverall CH,
*»
cycle isnotwell known .
Rough estimates give thefollowing emission levels forthevarious
sources (expressed inmillion tons ;the range indicated inbrackets
shows thedispersion ofestimates made byvarious authors ):
Natural Sources (million tons peryear ):
Enteric fermentation (wild animals )5(+/- 3)
Wetlands (swamps ,etc.) 110 (+/- 50)
Lakes 4(+/- 2)
Tundra 3(+/- 2)
Oceans 10(+/- 3)
Termites and other insects 25(+/- 20)
Other 40(+/- 40)
Man-Made Sources (million tons peryear ):
Enteric fermentation (cattle ,
Rice paddies
Biomass burning
Natural gasandmining losses
Solid Wasteetc. )75(+/- 35)
70(+/- 30)
70(+/- 40)
50(+/- 25)
30(+/- 30)
(Source :USDept ,ofEnergy -"APrimer onGreenhouse Gases "-
D0E/NBB0083 -March 88.)

-ТУ-
b.Atmospheric concentration trends :
v
Atmospheric concentration ofCH^hasincreased since oldtimes (from
0,7ppmbefore 1700 A.D. to1,54 and1,68 ppminthesouthern and
northern hemisphere respectively ,in1983 ).Average yearly increase
over 30years from 1951 to1981 hasbeen of1,1% .
7.Incase ofnitrous oxide (N-,0):
a.Emission sources :
Man-made emissions of^0aremainly duetocombustion offossil
fuels andbiomass .Agricultural soils (both natural andfertilized )
seem also togive asignificant contribution .
Natural emissions are due toterrestrial and ocean biota .
Again thequantitative evaluation ofemissions from various sources
ismost difficult .Itisestimated that the overall emissions are
asfollows (expressed inmillion tons ;the range indicated in
brackets shows thedispersion ofestimates made byvarious
authors ):
Natural Sources (million tons ofNperyear ):
Oceans and estuaries 2.0 (+/- 1.0 )
Natural soils 6.5 (+/- 3.5 )
Man-Made Sources (million tons ofNperyear ):
Fossil fuel combustion 4.0 (♦/- 1.0 )
Biomass burning 0.7 (+/- 0.2)
Fertilized soils 0.8 (+/- 0.2 )
Cultivated natural soils 1.5 (+/- 0.5 )
(Source sUSDept ,ofEnergy -"APrimer onGreenhouse Gases "-
D0E/NBB0083 -March 88.)

-20-
b.Atmospheric concentration trends :
NgOatmospheric concentration hasincreased from apre-industrial
290ppb toabout 300ppb in1985 .Thepresent rate ofincrease is
around 0,25% peryear .
8.Itistobeunderlined that thepresent increase inconcentration of
greenhouse gases isdue totheinterference ofhuman activities with the
natural cycles .Yetthere aresignificant uncertainties concerning the
quantitative relationships between emissions ofgreenhouse gases andthe
observed increase oftheir atmospheric concentrations .
9.Moreover itisnotpossible atthis stage togive reliable forecasts of
future emission trends because ofthewide range offactors influencing
those trends .However scenarios may bedeveloped using different
assumptions .
10.Itisreasonable toexpect further andaccelerating increase inthe
atmospheric concentrations ofsome greenhouse gases over thenext 50
years .
Potential climate consequences ofincreasing greenhouse gases concentrations
11.Theobserved andtheexpected increases inatmospheric concentrations of
greenhouse gases (andthen theincrease intheheat quantity which is
trapped inthe lower atmosphere )undoubtedly will result insome warming
andpossible associated climate changes .
However ,very significant uncertainties subsist about theshape andthe
rate ofsuch climate changes and inparticular about thedegree ofthe
warming and itstiming .
From this point ofview ,uncertainties about thepotential role of
climatic feedbacks duetoclouds ,vegetation etc .areparticularly
relevant .
Itisestimated that thedifferent greenhouse gases contribute at
present totheoverall greenhouse forcing roughly inthefollowing
proportion :55%forCO2*25%forCFC's,20%forCH^,NgOand0^
together .

21
Thepossible development oftheoverall greenhouse effect oftheabove
mentioned gases until theyear 2075 hasbeen tentatively evaluated by
theWorld Resources Institute interms offorecasts fortheaverage
warming commitment with reference to4scenarios encompassing hypotheses
about future developments from "donothing "andhigh growth to
voluntaristic emission reduction policies .
Thehypotheses onwhich this exercise hasbeen based arepresented at
page 23.
Itshould beunderlined that ithas not been taken account here ofthe
likely positive consequences oftherecent Montreal protocol onCFC's.
TheWRIstudy gives only avery limited role tonuclear energy inall
scenarios .Innone ofthescenarios mentioned ,theshare ofnuclear in
total primary energy supply exceeds 4.5% by2025 .Inother studies this
share ismuch higher ,forexample ,IIASA =23%,WEC (83)=13%,
Goldenberg =7%,Edmons =19% .TheCommission 'sownenergy 2000 study
sees theshare ofnuclear inworld energy supplies asfollows :1983 =
3.3% ,1990 =5.4% ,2000 =7.1% .Environmental costs fornuclear range
from $7.5 to$10/GJwhereas those forcoal arebetween $0.15 and
$1.20 /GJ.Inthecase ofoil$0.00 to$0.75 /GJ.Noenvironmental cost
isassigned torenewable energies .
This model asanyother onesuffers from both structural andinput data
limitations .However theusefulness ofsuch models istohelp
structuring thepolicy debate onsuch acomplex issue andtoidentify
critical areas forfurther research andstudy .

Theresultsaresummarized innextfigure.
Commitment toFuture Wanning intheWR1 Scenario !
WHSooutoi
o|- ,– I–m–r–i– 1- 1
MM MM I«MII Ima I«m 1M0 3000 I 3035 I fl I3090 I 3073
□Àiè 1ÀEA&XïltZZL**'WXlScWWri»
flKlÿiEmkrioni
50Mode*Pottdo
HSJow BuOd-Up
Ш !!!
Aniri 9whM4Jpdennetnididouble
CO,friÜUftU»fencMlpràdSModo.
Apprarimat *year ofcommitment towanning
equal to15to45degree *centigrade above pre-
tnduatrial temperature .
Appwndmate year ofcommitment towarming
equal to15to45digriu centigrade above 1980
mperatuna .
Source :MintzerI.M.(1987);"AMatterofDegrees,
URI,Washington DC,USA

-23-
Energy Policies intheWRI Scenarios
EaseCaseScenario
•‘'Businesa -As-Usual" theinertial model ofgrowth and
change intheworld energy industry
•Nopolídes toalow csrbon diowde emissions
•Mmimal sdmuhis loimprove end-use effocncy
•Mndeit ihmuius for»ynfuels development
•Minimal atiinului fordevtlopmcnt oftolar energy
lYVtml
•Nopolicy tottah tropical deforestation ortoencourage
reforestation
•Mmùnal envvorunental costa indudcd inprice ofenergy
High Fmiasiona Scenario
•Accelerated growth inenergy useisencouraged
•Nop*i toslow carbon dioxide emissions
•Nostimulus toimprove end-use efficiency
•Modest stimulus forincreased useofcoal
•Strong stimulus forsynfuels development•Nostimulus fordevelopment o/solar energy systems
•Rapid deforestation andconversion ofmarginal lands to
agriculture
•Token environmental costs included inprice ofenergy
ModcstFoliaesScénario
•Strong stimulus forimproved end-use effiriency
•Modest stimulus forsolar energy
•Substantial efforts attropical reforestation andecosystem
protection ;more intensive rather than extensive
agriculture encouraged
•Substantial environmental costs imposed onenergy
prices todiscourage solid fueluseandencourage
fuel-switching
Slow Build-up Scenario
•Strong emphasis placed onimproving energy efficiency
•Rapid introduction ofsolar energy encouraged
•Major global commitment toreforestation andecosystem
protection
•High environmental costs imposed onenergy prices to
discourage solid fueluseandencourage fuel-switchingRelated Energy Model Parameter Value
(Rate ofchange -0.8% peryear )
(Final Pnce-S3.15-*4.25perC)in2005 )
(Final Price-$16.50 perCJin2025 )
($0.30 perCJforcool;SI.00perCJforaynfucls )
(Rate ofchange -0.2% peryear )
(Rate ofimprovement •0.75% peryear )
(Final Price-S2.75-S3.50 perClin1995 )
(Final Price-$20perCJin2040 )
($0.15 perCJforcoal;$0JOperCJforsynfuels )
(Rate ofchange -1.0% peryear )
(Final price-$15.00 perCJin2025 )
($0.60 perCJforcoal;SI.50perCJforsynfuels )
(Rate ofimprovement •1.5% peryear )
(Final Pnce -S12.00 perGJin2000 )
($1.20 perCJforcoal ;S3.00 perCJforsynfuels )
Total Emissions ofC0 2intheWRI Scenarios (Cigatons ofCarbon perYear )
»Л ш
WRJ SCUIVIM /
fljHigh Emissions /
**-!▲BaseCase /
J4FModestPolicies /•Slow Build-up
l“■
|u' /
2. ~ * -- -
H- 1- 1- 1- '-WRJ Scenario *
BHigh Emissions
ABase Case
2FModest Policies
•Slow Build-up
1975 3000 2025 2050 2075

-24-
Byadifferent approach ,Or.R.A.Warrich oftheClimatic Resarch Unit
oftheUniversity ofEast Anglia inNorwich -UK,hasrecently tried to
link emission forecasts andlikely climatic changes andtoassign
probabilities tothepossible outcome .
Theresults ofthis exercise aresummarized inthefollowing graph :
RESIDUAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE (FROM 1985W°C )
(B)CLIMATE SENSITIVITY EOUILIBRIUM UTRANSIENT )"C)CL|MAT(C CHANGE
7-°"J(3:0-3.7)–- –––0–––––––
I^^0 e.o-
; (2.5-3.1)
1\ 6.o--- p
_U_r.60B30T F I'
BESTGUESS :.45\
s+b(1.0-1.1)_t_ T__(ŒSI_ ZZ'_ :_Y
O.-, (o.e)
I lll V •
r-H- 1- 1-4 1- 1+-hr- 1- 1- 1- 1––I- 1-
800 700 600 500A\1665200520152025 2035 2045
(EQUIVALENT C02C0NC (ppmv)Xgl I\ I YEAR
! !I !
| I / 2006 I
W/V_x_"2!2l_ \*
'// --2035 N.
1/O \/? --2045 \Â \U\
(A)GREENHOUSE FORCINGRESIDUAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE (FROM1985W°C)
(C)CLIMATIC CHANGE (B)CLIMATE SENSITIVITY
6.0+
_(2.5J5J )
4.0+
.60вv7-3.0 “I
BESTGUESS
STh LJ-o-i-D_L1U–/TVUT- L_
800 700 600|600
EQUIVALENT CO.CONC (ppmv)|* I I A1665 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045
\ YEAR
+I86I
+2006
+2016
+2026
2035
YEAR
(A)GREENHOUSE FORCING
Legend :
-WIGLEY ,SCOPE ,BASE CASE indicate projections ofgreenhouse gases
emissions
~T2X istheclimate sensitivity expressed asequilibrium temperature
increase duetoadoubling oftheequivalent CO^concentration
-"transient temperature "isthetemperature increase atagiven date
due tothegreenhouse forcing
-"equilibrium temperature "isthewarming towhich earth would have
been committed atagiven date due tothegreenhouse effect .

25-
Thefollowing conclusions i.a.have been drown bytheauthor ofthe
above mentioned evaluation :
Given therange ofscientific uncertainties ,thewarming towhich
wewill becommitted in2030 is0.8-6.4°C .Thechance offalling
outside this range isless than 1%.
-The"best-guess "range is1.5-3.1°C warmer than today .The
probability ofwarming within this range is45%.
-The90%confidence interval is1.1-5.1°C .This median value -the
best guess -is2.8°C ."
12.Thepresently available climate models predict (with various degrees of
uncertainties )thefollowing climate andassociated impacts^ :
-Global-Nean Surface Warming (very probable ).Foradoubling of
atmospheric carbon dioxide (oritsradiative equivalent from allof
thegreenhouse gases ),the long-term global-mean surface warming is
expected tobeintherange of1.5to4.5°C .Themost significant
uncertainty arises from theeffects ofclouds .Ofcourse ,theactual
rate ofwarming over thenext century will begoverned bythegrowth
rate ofgreenhouse gases ,natural fluctuations intheclimate system ,
andthedetailed response oftheslowly responding parts ofthe
climate system ,i.e. ,oceans andglacial ice .
-Globa l-Hean Precipitation Increase (very probable ).Increased heating
ofthesurface will lead toincreased evaporation and,therefore ,to
greater global mean precipitation .Despite this increase inglobal
average precipitation ,some individual regions might well experience
decreases inrainfall .
-Polar Winter Surface Warming (very probable ).Astheseaiceboundary
isshifted poleward ,themodels predict adramatically enhanced
surface warming inwinter polar regions .Thegreater fraction ofopen
water andthinner seaicewill probably lead towarming ofthepolar
surface airbyasmuch as3times theglobal mean warming .
(1)Source :NRC (1987);Current Issues inClimate Change ,National Research
Council ,Washington DC,USA.

26-
-Summer Continental Dryness /Uaralng (likely inthe long term ).Several
studies have predicted amarked long-term drying ofthesoil moisture
over some mid-latitude interior continental regions during summer .
This dryness ismainly caused byanearlier termination ofsnowmelt
andrainy periods ,andanearlier onset ofthespring -to-summer
reduction ofsoil wetness .Ofcourse ,these simulations oflong-term
equilibrium conditions maynotoffer areliable guide totrends over
thenext fewdecades ofchanging atmospheric composition andchanging
climate .
-High-Latitude Precipitation Increase (probable ).Astheclimate
warms ,theincreased poleward penetration ofwarm ,moist airshould
increase theaverage annual precipitation inhigh latitudes .
Tocomplete thepicture ofexpected direct effects ,itisworth
mentioning also a:
-Large Stratospheric Cooling (virtually certain ).Reduced ozone
concentrations inthe upper stratosphere will lead toreduced
absorption ofsolar ultraviolet radiation andtherefore less heating .
Increases inthe stratospheric concentration ofcarbon dioxide and
other radiatively active trace gases will increase theradiation of
heat from thestratosphere .Thecombination ofdecreased heating and
increased cooling will lead toamajor lowering oftemperatures inthe
upper stratosphere .
This last effect seems quite important asapossible efficient andrapid
"finger-print "ofthegreenhouse effect given that "theexpected changes
intheupper stratosphere arenearly ofanorder ofmagnitude greater
than theexpected surface changes andthat they arenotaffected bythe
ocean thermal inertia andbycloud feedback effects (processes which are
asource ofconsiderable uncertainty inassessing tropospheric climate
change )" (WMO,1985 ).
13.Itisworth stressing again that uncertainties ontheshape ,onthe
regional distribution andontherate ofsuch changes should nothide
the fact that observed andexpected increase ingreenhouse gases
atmospheric concentrations will modify thethermal balance oftheearth
andtherefore will bring some warming andpossible associated climate
modification .

27
Asitwasputasaconclusion atasymposium on"COgandother
greenhouse gases :climatic andassociated impact "organized bythe
Commission on3to5November 1986 :
Although quantitative uncertainties inmodels remain ,itisnow
believed that increasing concentrations ofgreenhouse gases will
produce asignificant change during the21st century .
-...This warming of1.5to4.5° isexpected otoccur over thenext
50years .
“Over Europe therange ofmodel results shows that average summer
temperatures could increase by2-6°C,winter average temperatures
by4-10°C .Inwinter precipitation would increase ..."
Potential impacts ofclimate changes
14.Potential impacts oftheabove mentioned climate changes will ofcourse
depend onthesize andrateofthelatter .Atthesymposium on"CO^and
other greenhouse gases "mentioned inparagraph 13,itwasconcluded
that :
"Theexpected climatic change will have profound effects onsea-level ,
global ecosystems ,agriculture ,water resources andsea-ice ."
Inparticular such impacts could involve :
15.Sea level rise
Over thepast 100years ,while global mean temperature hasincreased by
approximately 0.5°C ,sealevel hasrisen by10-15 cm.(Source :US-EPA
(1986);"Effects ofChanges inStratosphere Ozone andGlobal Climate ",
Volume 1).
Theprojected global warming could have thefollowing results :
.heating andtherefore expanding theocean water ;
.melting ofmountain glaciers ;
.melting ofthelarge icesheets inGreenland andAntarctica ;
.apossible (butunlikely )surge ofamajor portion oftheAntarctic
ice sheet into the ocean .

-28
Awide range ofdifferent estimâtes forfuture sea level riseare
avai labié .
Themost likely range forsuch increase bythemiddle ofnext century
seems tobeintheorder of30cmto1,5meter (Toronto Conference ,June
1988 ).
Asignificant rise insea level would :
.permanently inundate many coastal wetlands andlowlands ;
.accelerate coastal erosion ;
.exacerbate coastal flooding andstorm damage ;
.increase thesalinity ofestuaries andcoastal aquifers .
16.Réduction ofSea Ice
Asthe climate warms ,total sea ice isexpected tobereduced .This is
avery probable effect .
17.Uater Resources Impacts
Greenhouse warming may result insignificant changes inprecipitation
patterns .While itislikely that global mean precipitation will
increase ,some regions mayexperience decreases inrainfall .Several
studies predict substantial increases insummer dryness at
mid-latitudes .Aswell asthe impacts that this will have on
agriculture ,water resource reduction mayaffect thefollowing :
.availability ofwater forhuman consumption ;
.power génération ;
.effluent dilution ;
.navigation .
18.Agriculture
Itshould bementioned that anincrease intheCO^atmospheric
concentration would stimulate vegetable growth byincreasing
photosynthesis rate andtherefore could have per seabeneficial direct
effect oncrops andvegetation .This direct effect isdifficult to
quantify especially since theconcomitant temperature increase would
reduce therate ofnetphotosynthesis .Moreover anyattempt totake it

-29
Into account should trytostrike abalance between such direct effect
andindirect impacts ofincreasing C02concentration through climatic
modifications .
Thegreenhouse warming could affect agriculture andforestry mostly by
altering :
.total water availability andseasonal distribution ofrainfall at
regional level ;
.length ofgrowing season ;
.number ofextreme temperature events .
There aretwoperspectives ontheagricultural impacts ofclimate
change .
-The "Slow change "view :emphasises thesignificance ofgradual
increases inmean surface temperatures expected tolead togradual ,
long-term andcumulative changes inaverage regional climates and
agricultural patterns .
-The "Extreme events "view :emphasises changes inthefrequencies of
unusually disruptive events ;impact ofclimate change comes notonly
from theaverage butmainly from theextreme event ,e.g. droughts ,
flooding .
There isalready concern among some experts that recent regional extreme
events could bemore than just climate fluctuations .
Themain possible effects ofclimate variations onagriculture are
(2)summarised below :
■-changes inlength ofthepotential growing season andchanges in
plant growth rates ;
Source :Parry M.L. etal(Eds)(1987 );TheImpact ofClimate
Variations onAgriculture ,Volume 1,Assessments inCool ,Temperate
andCold Regions ,Reidel ,Dordrecht ,TheNetherlands

30-
-changes inmean yield and inthevariability ofyields ;
-changes inthe level ofcrop certainty and inthe crop quality ;
-changes inthesensitivity ofplants toapplication offertilisers ,
pesticides andherbicides ."
Moreover climate changes could indirectly significantly affect
agriculture incertain regions oftheworld through possible effects on
soil characteristics ,water resources ,hydrology ,pests anddiseases
etc .
Atpresent ,there isuncertainty about thenature ,themagnitude and
location ofimpacts .Studies sofarconclude thefollowing :
-Areas particularly sensitive toshifts intemperature andrainfall
levels arehigh latitude ,semi-arid andhigh-altitude regions .
-Warming appears tobedetrimental tocereals inthecore wheat-growing
areas ofEurope andNorth-America .
-Investigations ofpossible impacts inCanada ,Finland andNorthern
(1)USSR using climate data from themodel byHansen etal,show
reduced yields ofspring-sown crops such aswheat ,barley andoats ,
duetotheincreased moisture stress early inthegrowing period .
Impacts onagriculture would result inimpacts onthelocal community ,
regional andnational economies ,inparticular through changes infarm
income andprofitability ,changes inregional production costs ,changes
inregional andnational food production ,changes inregional farm
income disparities ,changes inregional economic activity and
employment .
Hansen J.etal (1983 ):"Efficient Three-Dimensional Global Models for
Climate Studies :Models IandII",Monthly Weather Review III,pp.
609-662 .

-31-
Inconclusion itisnotpossible under thepresent state ofknowledge to
give more than atentative andqualitative description ofpossible
effects ofclinate changes onagriculture given thelarge uncertainties
about theregional shape andsize ofsuch changes andthelack of
detailed research andstudies onthelikely response ofagricultural
systems invarious regions oftheworld .
Urgent efforts arerequired toimprove understanding ofthese aspects
both atglobal level because ofthepotentially disruptive food security
effects andatCommunity level because ofthedirect potential
socio-economic impacts .
19.Forest Ecosystems andTimber Production
Itisworth noticing that thesame general comment onthedirect
potential effect ofCOgonvegetation made atthebeginning of
paragraph 18applies here too .
Predicted impacts include thefollowing :
.modification ofbotanical andzoological composition ofnatural
forest ecosystems ;
.increase offorest decline innatural andmanmade forest stands ;
.modifications inforest productivity andforest management ;
.disturbance o/timber -andwoodproducts markets andtrade ;
.danger ofextinction ofcertain forest tree species and local
ecotypes with alimited geographical distribution andbythis a
reduction ofglobal genetic variability offorests .
20.Human Health Impacts
Itshould also bementioned that aglobal warming could also have
impacts forhuman health .Itcould inparticular :
.possibly enable some diseases which require warm year-round
temperatures tosurvive athigher latitudes ;
.cause more frequent famines andshortages offood supplies (extreme
events );

-32-
Expansion oftropical climates andconcurrent expansion oftherange of
tropical diseases would mostly affect developing countries that already
face health problems .
21.Ecology andFisheries Impacts
Thefollowing potential ecological impacts areworth mentioning :
.impacts onless managed ecosystems ;
.impacts onmarine ecosystems ;
.multiple stresses onsome species which could become extinct ,
resulting inasignificant decline inbiodiversity ;
.impact onwildlife reserves (the impact would depend onwhether the
reserve 'sboundaries encompass areas towhich plants andanimals
could migrate ).
The level ofimpact would depend onthe rate ofchange inclimate and
thus thetime allowed foracclimatisation andecological species shifts .
Finally itisworth mentioning that since theocean andatmosphere are
coupled ,both thedistribution andabundance offishery resources are
capable ofbeing modified byclimate .
However ,itiscontroversial howmuch observed changes inparticular
fishery stocks aredue toclimate andother natural causes orto
overfishing .
II.THE INTERNATIONAL FRAMEWORK AND PERSPECTIVES
Introduction
22.Lerôle joué parcertains gazprésents dans l'atmosphère dans les
équilibres thermiques delaterre était connu dans sesgrandes lignes
déjà vers lamoitié dusiècle dernier (Tyndall ,1863 ;Arrhenius ,1896 ;
Chamberlin ,1899 ).
Lespremières mesures systématiques delaconcentration duCOgparun
réseau mondial ont toutefois démarré seulement en1958 .

33-
Depuis lors l'augmentation observée decette concentration apoussé les
milieux scientifiques âentreprendre etàintensifier larecherche sur
tous lesaspects del'effet serre .
Cen'esttoutefois quetrès récemment quecesujet acommencé àfaire
l'objet del'attention desresponsables politiques .
Lesproblèmes bien connus concernant lacouche d'ozone quiontentraîné
desnégociations internationales etdesdécisions politiques onten
effet porté l'attention decesresponsables politiques surlesrisques
globaux liés auxmodifications denotre atmosphère causées par l'action
del'homme etsur lanécessité depréparer lesréponses concrètes à
donner auxindications scientifiques deplus enplus inquiétantes
concernant l'éventualité demodifications duclimat .
Asaconsequence ,thefollowing recent events have marked animportant
evolution inattitudes towards thegreenhouse issue :
.the "Villach "conference (Villach-Austria ,9-15 October 1985 );
.the European Parliament resolution onmeasures tocounteract
rising concentrations (September 1985 )
.TheEECSymposium on"COgandother greenhouse gases "(Brussels ,
3-5November 1986 );
.TheWorkshops on"Developing policies forresponding toclimatic
change "(Villach-Austria ,28September-2 October 1987 and
Bellagio-Italy ,9-13 November 1987 );
.TheBrundtland Commission 'sreport
.TheWorld Conference on"Thechanging atmosphere "(Toronto ,27-30 June
1988 ).
The last event isofparticular importance forfuture development and
itsoutcome ispresented inthenext paragraph .
Details about theother events mentioned above aregiven intheAnnex to
this document .
Theworld conference on"Thechanging atmosphere ,implications forglobal
security *-Toronto ,27-30 june 1988

34
23.This high level conference hasbeen organized attheinitiative ofthe
Canadian government tofollow-up some oftheconclusions and
recommendations oftheBrundtland commission report .
More than 300scientists andpolicy makers from 48countries ,United
Nations organizations ,other international bodies andnon-governmental
organizations participated inthesessions .
Oftheconference conclusions andrecommendations ,thefollowing seem
most important andaretherefore reproduced infull :
"-Humanity isconducting anenormous ,unintended ,globally pervasive
experiment whose ultimate consequences could besecond only toa
global nuclear war .TheEarth 'satmosphere isbeing changed atan
unprecedented rate bypollutants resulting from human activities ,
inefficient andwasteful fossil fuel useandtheeffects ofrapid
population growth inmany regions .These changes represent amajor
threat tointernational security andarealready having harmful
consequences over many parts oftheglobe .
-Far-reaching impacts will becaused byglobal warming and sea level
rise ,which arebecoming increasingly evident asaresult of
continued growth inatmospheric concentrations ofcarbon dioxide and
other greenhouse gases .Thebest predictions available indicate
potentially severe economic andsocial dislocation forpresent and
future generations ,which will worsen international tensions and
increase the risk ofconflicts among andwithin nations .Itis
imperative toactnow."
Thefollowing immediate actions arerecommended :
"A.Actions byGovernments and Industry
-Ratify theMontreal Protocol onSubstances that Deplete theOzone
Layer .TheProtocol should berevised in1990 toensure nearly
complete elimination oftheemissions offully halogenated CFCs by
theyear 2000 .Additional measures tolimit other ozone-destroying
halocarbons should beconsidered .

35-
-Setenergy policies toreduce theemissions ofC02andother trace
gases inorder toreduce therisks offuture global warming .
Stabilizing theatmospheric concentrations ofC02isanimperative
goal .Itiscurrently estimated torequire reductions ofmore than
50percent from present emissions levels .Energy research and
developmental budgets must bemassively directed toenergy options
which would eliminate orgreatly reduce C02emissions andtostudies
undertaken tofurther refine thetarget reductions .
“Reduce C02emissions byapproximately 20percent of1988 levels by
theyear 2005 asaninitial global goal .Clearly ,the
industrialized nations have aresponsibility tolead theway,both
through their national energy policies andtheir bilateral and
multilateral assistance arrangements .About one-half ofthis
reduction would besought from energy efficiency andother
conservation measures .Theother half should beeffected by
modifications insupplies .
-Settargets forenergy efficiency improvements that aredirectly
related toreductions inC02andother greenhouse gases .A
challenging target would betoachieve the 10percent energy
efficiency improvements by2005 .Improving energy efficiency isnot
precisely thesame asreducing total carbon emissions andthe
detailed policies will not allbefamiliar ones .Adetailed study
ofthesystems implications ofthis target should bemade .Equally ,
targets forenergy supply should also bedirectly related to
reductions inC02andother greenhouse gases .Aswithefficiency ,a
challenging target would again betoachieve the10percent energy
supply improvements by2005 .Adetailed study ofthesystems
implications ofthis target should also bemade .Thecontributions
toachieving this goal will vary from region toregion ;some
countries have already demonstrated acapability forincreasing
efficiency bymore than 2percent ayear forover adecade .
-Apart from efficiency measures ,thedesired reduction will require
Ci)switching tolower C02emittaing fuels ,<ii)reviewing
strategies fortheimplementation ofrenewable energy especially
advanced biomass conversion technologies ;Ciii )revisiting the
nuclear power option ,which lost credibility because ofproblems
related tonuclear safety ,radioactive wastes ,andnuclear weapons

36-
proliferation .Ifthese problems canbesolved /through improved
engineering designs andinstitutional arrangements /nuclear power
could have aroletoplay inlowering CO^emissions .
-Negotiate nowonways toachieve theabove-mentioned reductions .
-Initiate management systems inorder toencourage /review and
approve major newprojects forenergy efficiency .
-Vigorously apply existing technologies /inaddition togains made
through reduction offossil fuel combustion /toreduce (i)emissions
ofacidifying substances toreach thecritical load that the
environment canbear ;(ii)substances which areprecursors of
tropospheric ozone ;(iii)other non-C02 greenhouse gases .
-Label products toallow consumers tojudge theextent andnature of
theatmospheric contamination that arises from themanufacture and
useofthe product .
B.Action byMember Governments oftheUnited Nations /
Non-Governmental Organizations andRelevant International Bodies .
-Initiate thedevelopment ofacomprehensive global convention asa
framework forprotocols ontheprotection oftheatmosphere .The
convention should emphasize such keyelements asthefree
international exchange ofinformation andsupport ofresearch and
monitoring /andshould provide aframework forspecific protocols
foraddressing particular issues ,taking into account existing
international law.This should bevigorously pursued atthe
International Workshop onLawandPolicy tobeheld inOttawa early
in1989 /thehigh-level political conference onClimate Change in
theNetherlands intheFall ,1989 ,theWorld Energy Conference in
Canada in1989 andtheSecond World Climate Conference ,Geneva ,June
1990 ,with aview tohaving theprinciples andcomponents ofsuch a
convention ready forconsideration attheinter-governmental
Conference onSustainable Development in1992 .These activities
should innowayimpede simultaneous national ,bilateral and
regional actions andagreements todeal with specific problems such
asacidification andgreenhouse gasemissions .

-37-
Establish aWorld Atmosphere Fund /financed inpart byalevy on
fossil fuel consumption ofindustrialized countries /tomobilize a
substantial part oftheresources needed forimplementation ofthe
Action Plan fortheProtection oftheAtmosphere .
Support thework oftheInter-governmental Panel onClimate Change
toconduct continuing assessments ofscientific results andinitiate
government -to-government discussion ofresponses andstrategies .
Devote increasing resources toresearch andmonitoring efforts
within theWorld Climate Programme /theInternational Geosphere
Biosphere Programme andHuman Response toGlobal Change Programme .
Itisparticularly important tounderstand howclimate changes ona
regional scale arerelated toanoverall global change ofclimate .
Emphasis shouls also beplaced onbetter determining therole of
oceans andglobal heat transport andthe flux ofgreenhouse gases .
Increase significantly thefunding forresearch /development and
transfer ofinformation onrenewable energy /ifnecessary bythe
establishment ofadditional andbridging programmes ;extend
technology transfer with particular emphasis ontheneeds ofthe
developing countries ;andupgrade efforts tomeet obligations for
thedevelopment andtransfer oftechnology embodied inexisting
agreements .
Expand funding formore extensive technology transfer andtechnical
cooperation projects incoastal zone protection andmanagement .
Reduce deforestation andincrease afforestation making useof
proposals such asthat intheWorld Commission onEnvironment and
Developments (WCED )report /"OurCommon Future "/including the
establishment ofatrust fund toprovide adequate incentives to
enable developing nations tomanage their tropical forest resources
sustainably .
Develop andsupport technical cooperation projects toallow
developing nations toparticipate ininternational mitigation
efforts /monitoring /research andanalysis related tothechanging
atmosphere .

38-
-Ensure that this Conference Statement ,theWorking Groupe reports
andthefull Proceedings oftheWorld Conference ,"TheChanging
Atmosphere :Implications forGlobal Security "(tobepublished in
the Fall ,1988 )aremade available toallnations ,tothe
conferences mentioned under paragraph 26,andother future meetings
dealing with related issues .
-Increase funding tonon-governmental organizations toallow the
establishment ofenvironmental education programmes andpublic
awareness campaigns related tothechanging atmosphere .Such
programmes would aim atsharpening perception oftheissues ,and
changing public values andbehaviour with respect tothe
envi ronment .
-Allocate financial support forenvironmental education inprimary
andsecondary schools anduniversities .Consideration should be
given toestablishing special groups inuniversity departments for
addressing thecrucial issues ofglobal climate change .
Future possible developments
24.Apossible short-term outcome oftheabove mentioned international
activites isinitiation ,already in1989 ,oftheprocess forpreparing a
comprehensive global convention ontheprotection oftheatmosphere .
Limitations totheemissions ofgreenhouse gases would then beagreed by
specific protocols intheframe ofsuch convention .
25.Next essential events onthewaytothat convention might probably be :
-theinternational workshop onlawandpolicy tobeheld inOttawa
early in1989 ;
-ahigh level political conference tobeconvened intheautumn 1989 by
theNetherlands Ministry oftheEnvironment ;

-39
-theSecond World Climate Conference ,Geneva ,June 1990 ;
-theIntergovernmental Conference onsustainable Development In1992
which could betheculminating event .
26.Thesubstance oftheconvention mentioned under 24above (andof
‘associated protocols )asfarasthegreenhouse Issue isconcerned could
probably consist in :
a)greenhouse gases emission reduction targets fordeveloped countries ;
b)newdevelopment aidschemes tohelp developing countries tolimit the
increase oftheir greenhouse gases emissions byuseofappropriate
technologies andtoreverse deforestation trends ;
c)anewimpetus toscientific andtechnical international cooperation
onalltheaspects relevant forthegreenhouse issue .
27.Renegotiation oftheMontreal Protocol onCFC'sisavery likely short
term development .
28.Policy discussions onthewayhowtodeal with thegreenhouse effect
might bevery complex because ofthemany farreaching andinterrelated
aspects ofthe issue .
Inthis respect ,itisworth stressing theglobal ,complex and
differentiated nature ofthechallenge putbythegreenhouse issue .
This waswell presented inthefollowing statement attheBellagio
(1987 )workshop (seeAnnex ):
"... theparticipants emphasized therelationship between theissue of
climatic change ,including policy responses toit,andanumber of
other issues ,above allinthefield ofenvironment anddevelopment .
This relationship underlines theimportance ofthedifferences in
impact byregion ,andhence bycountry ,ofclimatic change andthe
extent towhich these differences affect theeffort ofthe
international community inpromoting sustainable development .

40
Thereport oftheBrundtland Commission hasexplained the
ramifications ofthese numerous interconnections .Thesignificance
ofthedifference inregional impact should not/however /beallowed
todetract from theemphasis onthecomunity asawhole infacing it.
Still less should itencourage anyattempts todivide countries or
regions into ■winners "or"losers ".This isnot a"zero-sum "game .
Unless action istaken ,itcould beanegative sumgame ofhighly
uncertain proportions ."
III .REVIEW OFPOSSIBLE ACTIONS
Introduction
29.Preliminary indications from research results andthestate ofthe
international debate call forurgent consideration offurther action on
thegreenhouse issue .
Such action ,ofwhich thefollowing paragraphs give anoverview ,could
include :
-research ;
-preventive measures Ci.e .measures tocurb greenhouse gases
emissions );
-adaptive measures (i.e. measures toadapt toclimatic changes and
totheir impacts ifthose seem likely tobeunavoidable despite
preventive measures ).
30.Policy measures maybeclassed into three groups :
(a)those which have tobetaken ataninternational level andrequire
international agreement (e.g. reduction ofCOgemissions );
(b)those which maybetaken ataEuropean level (e.g. planning for
water resources ,agricultural andforest planning )orinspecific
countries e.g. through development aidprogrammes (conservation of
tropical forests ,wetlands ,coastal ecosystems ,appropriate energy
policies ,etc.);

41
<c)those ofanintermediate character (e.g. decisions ontheenergy mix
tobeadopted ,taking account of<a)andofparticular European
conditions ).
Thegroup towhich anyparticular Measure belongs maydetermine thetime
necessary toitsadoption andrequire aproper approach .
Measures ofaninternational character mayignore specific local
conditions ;local measures cannot doso.
31.The above mentioned factors have tobetaken into account inorder to
correctly coordinate thepolicy decision timing andtheresearch timing .
Infact this coordination isessential for two reasons :
(a)theuncertainties asregards theclimate change anditsimpacts
increase with increasing spatial andtemporal definition :the
ultimate answer one isexpecting from scientific research iswhat
will happen ,when ,where .Nowthe "what "becomes increasingly
uncertain astherange ofthe "when "and "where "becomes smaller .
Yetsuch knowledge isvital foranyplanning which decision makers
could consider .
(b)inorder totake policy decisions itiscrucial toknow
-which danger ,when andwhere ,onehastoface andwhat
consequences upon theenvironment ,theeconomy ,thesociety at
large aretobeexpected ;
-howtoimplement atbest themeasures decided ;
Therefore ,thestudy ofpolicy options andscientific research have to
goinparallel ,andthere must beacontinuous feedback between thetwo.
Only inthis waycanoneavoid that decisions areunduly delayed orthat
they aretaken without taking fully into account research results .
Research itself should benefit from that interaction process ,bybeing
continuously reoriented towards specific objectives andactual problems
and needs .

42-
Research activities
32.Already since 1980 ,theCommission oftheEuropean Communities is
carrying out aresearch programme inClimatology ,whose main research
areas areconcerned with thestudy oftheevolution ofclimate inthe
past ,with climate modelling ,with theman-induced climate change and
with theimpacts that such change could have onEuropean land andwater
resources .Thesymposium held inBrussels inNovember 1986 (Annex B)
wasorganised intheframe ofthis programme andwasmeant toprovide
the scientific consensus available atthat date .
Research isbeing focussed especially ontheclimatic effects of
greenhouse gases ,andclimatologically significant processes imperfectly
understood asyet,such asatmosphere-ocean interactions ,thewater
vapour-greenhouse feedback ,thecloud feedback ,aerosol andcloud
climatology ,biospheric sources andsinks oftrace gases ,climatic
aspects ofozone changes andtroposphere-stratosphere interactions ,the
effects ofglabal warming onthemelting rate oficeshelves .
33.Inthenear future theClimatology research programme oftheCommission
will put agreater stress ontheimpacts which climate change could have
onimportant sectors oftheEuropean environment .
Such intensified research should concern inparticular :
(1)The rise insea level and itsimpacts ontheEuropean coasts
(prediction offuture sea-level changes ,thechange instorm surge
risks forEuropean coastal installations ,theimpacts oncoastal
ecosystems andcoastal land use).
(2)Theimpacts ofachanging climate onEuropean crops ,forests ,water
resources (bioclimatic shifts ofcrops andforests ,changes in
productivity ,thesensitivity ofEuropean crops toincreased CC^and
climate change ,theimpacts onsurface andground water supplies ).
(3)Theeffects oftheclimate change asregards theprogressive
aridification oftheMediterranean Europe (effects ofclimatic and
meteorological factors onsoil degradation ,theimpact of
progressive drought onvegetation ).

-43-
(4)Theoccurrence andfrequency ofextreme events andtheir impacts
upon agriculture andindustry (theimpacts ofthealternance of
droughts andheavy rainfall onEuropean land resources ,theimpacts
ofmeteorological extremes such ashail andfrost onEuropean
agriculture andindustry ).
(5)Themelting ofAlpine glaciers .
(6)Thestudy ofthesocial ,economic andpolitical factors conditioning
probable future emission rates ofgreenhouse gases ,andlikely tobe
affected byanypolicy option that could beadopted .
(7)Thestudy ofsocio-economic impacts ,inparticular intheCommunity ,
duetoclimatic changes ,forthevarious relevant aspects ,such as
consequences foragriculture ,consequences forcostline regions of
thesea level rise ,etc .
Such research should besupplemented byasound monitoring of
atmospheric andoceanic conditions .International agreements should
allow toplace instrumentation where itisneeded and tohave access to
space based monitoring systems .Avital component ofamonitoring
programme istheutilisation ofspace technology tounderstand the
processes which control theearth 'sclimate system and itssensitivity
tonatural andman-induced changes .
34.Environmental constraints ,especially thereduction ofairpollution ,
call for abalanced pursuit ofenvironmental andenergy objectives .
AsfarasCOjisconcerned ,theobjective canalso beachieved through
progress inthedevelopment andavailability oftechniques ,processes
andproducts allowing rational useofenergy andtheefficient and
economic useofrenewable energy sources andbysafe nuclear energy .
These considerations provide ample justification foraspecific energy
R&Dprogramme inthefields ofrenewable energies ,rational useof
energy andsafe nuclear technology which will ensure continuity ofthe
progress made since 1975 andguarantee that optimum benefits begained
from thenewenergy technologies developed sofar.

-44-
35.Elimination ofCOgatthesource could eventually become anewdomain of
resarch .Noeconomically ortechnically feasible technologies areyet
available .
Newdirections forresearch inthis field should beexplored .
36.Moreover ,themanagement oftheCO^problem implies both thedefinition
ofglobal reduction objectives andtheimplementation ofthese
objectives .Thefirst aspect oftheproblem requires todetermine by
howmuch theemissions will need tobereduced andthepace ofthat
reduction .The implementation action will have todetermine the
economic activities that will bear themajor part ofthis reduction ,the
allocation ofthis reduction among thedifferent actors andthe
institutional approaches toarrive atthese objectives .
System Analysis can,inprinciple ,provide theadequate basis for
looking atthese questions .Energy-Environment models give the
possibility offinding efficient ways ofachieving emission goals ;
Climate models arethere toassess the impact ofemissions onthe
environment and tohelp construct scenarios ofadaptive measures ;
Energy-economy models allow tocompute the impact ontheeconomic
systems ofthecosts incurred bythereduction ofemissions .
Themodels developed intheSystem Analysis Community research programme
should beadapted andused inthedirection defined above foranalysing
energy related CC^emissions reduction measures andprogrammes .
Theaimofsuch research would betoevaluate thefeasibility andthe
costs ofvarious reduction objectives aswell astoassess their impact
ontheenergy andeconomy sectors .
Préventive action (greenhouse gases émission réduction )
37.Preventive action isanyaction aiming atcurbing theexpected increase
ingreenhouse gases atmospheric concentrations .
This could mean aiming first atreducing the rate ofincrease ofthose
concentrations and inthe longer term atstabilizing them .Reduction of
greenhouse gases concentrations does notseem atthis stage arealistic
objective butcould beavery long term goal .

45
38.Theonly wayathand tocontrol future trends ofgreenhouse gases
concentrations islimiting man-made emissions including ,incase of
reversing thepresent trend ofdeforestation intropical regions .
Preventative action isfurther discussed with reference tothemost
relevant greenhouse gases here below .
39.Carbon dioxide (CO^)emissions
Asshown inparagraph 4ofchapter I,COgemissions aremostly dueto
fossil fuels burning andforest wood burning orforest biomass
decomposition .
Preventive action could therefore include measures tobetaken inthe
energy sector (including energy forindustry andtransportation )and in
theforestry andagricultural sectors asfar asaction inthese sectors
could help topreserve forests .
Atentative list ofactions aiming atCO^emissions reduction which
could bestudied might include :
A.Energy related measures for CO,
There areseveral types oftechnical energy related measures that
could curb CC^emissions ,aslisted below .
Ofcourse not allthose measures areequally efficient or
cost-effective andone should make aclear distinction between the
physical potential ofCOgemission reduction ofagiven measure and
itseconomic viability .
Thefollowing technical measures ,which arelisted without any
ranking orpriority ,mayprovide ways toreduce COgemissions from
carbon-based fuels :
a.Energy Efficiency
-improving theefficiency ofenergy demand (e.g. more efficient
light bulbs ,better insulation ,more efficient cars ,electronic
regulations ,etc.);

-46-
-improving theefficiency ofenergy supply (e.g. cogeneration ,
introduction ofcombined cycle possibly integrated with
high-temperature nuclear reactors ,develoment ofMHD,etc.);
b.Energy Supply
-fuel switching toless COgemitting fuels (therelation ofCO2
•emitted quantities with regard toaunit ofenergy produce for
thecombustion oflignite ,hard coal ,oil andnatural gas isas
follows :121,100,88,58);
-increased use ofnoncarbon based renewable energies (pe.solar ,
windpower ,hydro ,geothermal ,photovoltaics );
-increased use ofnuclear power .
c.Biotic sources
-Usebiomass forenergy purposes (such aswood forheating or
cooking indeveloping countries )inasustainable way sothat
theCOgatmospheric balance isnotaffected significantly ;
d.CO^technology abatement
-Although atpresent noeconomically ortechnically feasible
technologies seem tobeavailable ,this possibility should not
beexcluded for the future .
e.Long-term development
-Introduction ofnon-carbon based energy systems intheir various
forms combined with electricity andhydrogen assecondary energy
carriers .
Anypolicy decision aiming atreducing CC^emissions intheenergy
sector should becarefully examined taking fully into account the
specific objectives andconstraints existing atinternational ,
community andnational level inthis sector .Ontheother hand ,any
future decision inthefield ofenergy policy should take into
account theproblem ofpotential climate changes linked tothe
greenhouse effect .

-47-
System analysis models have been extensively used inthepast for
exploring consequences ofeconomic -energy -environmental related
measures andtheuseofsuch analytical models mayprovide
information onthefeasibility ofmeasures toachieve COgreduction
goals .Scenarios analysis cancomplete such information andidentify
technologies which have agood chance ofcontributing tothat
objective andhence should deserve more attention .
8.Measures related toforestry andnatural ecosystems
a.Conserve forest resources
-promote appropriate agricultural practices andorganization in
developing countries toavoid that agricultural land demand
cause further deforestation ;
-assist developing countries toimprove their ability tomanage
forests inamanner that ensures that they areexploited ona
sustainable basis ;
-reinforce prevention andfighting offorest fires ;
-promote actions tomonitor andrestore declining forests ;
-provide alternatives toandimprove theefficiency ofthe
utilisation offuel-wood forcooking indeveloping countries .
b.Promote afforestation
-increase reafforestation efforts notably insubtropical and
tropical regions ;
-promote agroforestry ,especially indeveloping countries ,
c.Natural ecosystem protection
-promote theconservation ofecosystems directly orindirectly
relevant fortheglobal carbon cycle .

-48-
40.CFCs «lissions
Possible preventative actions are :
a.Constrain use
b.Constrain production
c.Recapture andrecycle ordestroy
41.CH^,N^OMissions
Actions which could beconsidered are :
a.Minimize CH^losses inextraction ,transport anduseofnatural gas.
b.Minimize CH^losses from landfills .
c.Minimize ^0emission from fossil fuels burning .
d.Study possible improvements inlivestocks management ,rice
cultivation andlagoons management ,aiming atreducing CH^release .
e.Study possible improved fertilizing management practices toreduce
^0release from nitrogen fertilizers use.
42.Thepossible use ofmechanisms such astaxation ofproducts that cause
greenhouse gasemissions orofemissions themselves where this is
feasible ,could beconsidered tostimulate orcomplement technology
measures .
Planned adaptation
43.Planned adaptation involves taking account ofpotential greenhouse
impacts inlong-term planning ,most likely attheregional andnational
levels .
Consideration ofsuch measures inlong term planning becomes necessary
ifitisbelieved that :
-impacts arelikely tooccur which society will notbeable toadjust
tointhe short term ;
-implementation ofpreventative measures isunlikely tobesufficiently
effective intime (e.g. even ifemission controls were implemented
now,itispossible that significant impacts will occur duetothe
atmospheric warming towhich wearealready committed ).

-49
Atthis stage itisnotpossible tocover ,even inqualitative and
simple way,alltheadaptive measures which could beworth considering
inrelation tothevarious potential impacts ofthegreenhouse effect .
However ,itisworth giving some indications concerning potential
measures forpossible sea-level rise andforimpacts onagriculture .
44.Possible adaptation measures concerning sealevel rise could include :
-Sea walls /flood barriers .
-National flood insurance programmes .
-Construction ofreservoirs (tocombat increased salinity ).
-Abandonment ofdeveloped regions inlowlying areas .
-Other relocation ofpopulations away from vulnerable sites .
-Protection ofcoastal ecosystems .
45.Examples ofmeasures which could beconsidered inorder toadapt to
impacts onagriculture are :
-More efficient use offertilisers .
-Changes ofland use tooptimise and tostabilize production ;
-Changes ofpolicy tomaintain national food security ;
-Changes topolicies supporting land management ,such assoil erosion
control ,water management ,etc .
Cooperation with developing countries
46.Alltheabove measures ,both asregards preventive action andasregards
planned adaptation ,should also bedeveloped totake into account the
needs ofthedeveloping countries ,andhowtheCommunity 'sdevelopment
aidpolicy cancontribute towards theprevention andtheadaptation of
thegreenhouse effect .Inparticular :
a)byenhancing thetype ofprojects that canactively contribute to
prevention such asthose which aredirected atreducing
deforestation ,conserving wetlands ,coastal ecosystems andthe
genetic diversity orarid ecosystems ;

-50-
b)bytaking Into account theconsequences ofthegreenhouse effect in
medium-term project planning (e.g. agricultural programmes ,livestock
programmes ,fisheries andanyprojects related tolong-term
investments onlowlands which maybeaffected bytheforecasted
increase ofocean level );
c)byensuring that base tine data being gathered forthepurpose of
implementing development projects bemade accessible totheCommunity
research programme onthegreenhouse effect .

IV.CONCLUSIONS OFTHE COMMISSION
47.TheCommunity should implement fully theVienna Convention forthe
protection oftheozone layer andtheMontreal Protocol onsubstances
that deplete theozone layer .This will involve theadoption and
application byallMember states oftheproposed Council Decision /
Regulation andResolution agreed tobytheCouncil on16June 1988 .
48.TheCommunity should participate actively intheefforts toward
renegotiation by1990 oftheMontreal Protocol onsubstances that
deplete theozone layer .TheProtocol should berevised sothat the
CFC'semissions could bealmost totally eliminated bytheyear 2000 as
recommended bytheToronto conference .
49.TheCommmunity should welcome initiation ofdiscussions onthe
possibilities ofaninternational agreement forthefuture protection of
theatmosphere .Itshould beprepared togive animportant contribution
tothepreparation andnegotiation ofsuch anagreement which might
include theestablishment ofspecific targets forlimiting emissions of
greenhose gases aswell asdefinition ofemission reduction measures and
programmes .
5C.Therefore /theCommission will take theinitiative tolaunch a
substantial policy-options study programme toevaluate thefeasibility ,
costs andlikely results ofpossible measures tolimit greenhouse gases
emissions .Results ofsuch programme would give useful inputs tothe
international debate onthe issue .
Themain areas ofsuch programme should be :
-identification andtechnical assessment ofmeasures andtechnologies
invarious relevant fields capable toreduce greenhouse gases
emissions ;
-analysis ofeconomic ,industrial ,energy ,social andinstitutional
implications andimpacts oftheabove mentioned possible measures
andtechnologies ;
-structuring andevaluating policy scenarios referred inparticular
topossible strategic targets forCOgemission ceilings .

-52-
Areliable greenhouse gases emission inventory would beneeded in
this frame .
Thefocus oftheexercise should beonEurope 1nafirst instance .
-establishing adecision analysis framework inorder tolink
probabilistically policy options andtheir likely results an
benefits .
-identifying andevaluating adaptive policies tocope with
unavoidable effects under thedifferent scenarios resulting from the
decision analysis exercise .
TheCommission hasdeveloped several energy-economy and
energy-environment models andthose models andtheexperience gained in
policy analyses ofenergy-environment interactions should befully
exploited when starting newwork onthegreenhouse issue .
Theabove mentioned work programme should beclosely linked tothe
research anddevelopment activities onrelevant subjects such as
climatology andenergy .
Moreover aframework should becreated toallow systematic exchange of
views and rapid feedbacks among scientists andpolicy makers .
51.Thegreenhouse effect isaglobal problem ,theCommunity should
therefore play animportant part inthedefinition ofaglobal policy ,
involving inparticular developing countries ,towards asustainable
development .
Community work onthegreenhouse issue should bestructured and
scheduled sotoallow synergism andcollaboration with international
organizations andthird countries .Inparticular theCommission work
programme should fully take account ofparallel activities intheframe
ofthepanel onclimate change ofWMO/UNEP andofOECD and IEA.
52.TheCommunity and itsMember States should bynowtake into account in
their policy decisions (related toenergy orother sectors relevant to
the issue )theproblem ofpotential climate changes linked tothe
greenhouse effect .
Early consideration ofsuch issue could avoid higher costs infuture .

-53-
53.Moreover theCommission will take urgent action toreinforce andexpand
efforts inthefield ofenergy savings /energy efficiency improvement /
development ofnewenergy sources /useofsafe nuclear technology .The
accelerated development andpromotion ofinnovative commercial-scale
technologies inthese fields should begiven high priority .
There isnodoubt that such action isjustified because ofboth energy
andenvironmental requirements /independent ofuncertainties onsome
scientific aspects ofthegreenhouse issue .
Ofspecial importance would bethepossibility toquantify energy
efficiency improvements interms ofCO^reductions .
54.TheCommunity should sustain vigorous research programmes onallthe
retevant aspects ofthegreenhouse issue andshould promote newenergy
technologies having thepotential tolimit COgemissions .
55.Activities should bereinforced andexpanded intheframe ofexisting
cooperation agreements ofthe ECwith mediterranean countries with the
aimboth ofpromoting sustainable development inthose countries and of
helping them toprevent likely impacts ofthegreenhouse issue ontheir
environment .
56.TheCommission will also prepare urgent action inthefield ofaidto
developing countries both asregards preventive andasregards
adaptation measures .
Inparticular :
-Anattempt should bemade toclassify andmapgeographical areas
which areparticularly vulnerable tothegreenhouse effect (such as,
forinstance ,islands whose mean altitude above sealevel is
precariously low,coastal states ,etc.Such maping would form a
reference basis against which policies could beevaluated .Itwould
certainly beafirst step towards adapting policy asregards aidto
developing countries .
-Thegreenhouse effect should asmuch aspossible betaken into
account inconsidering thefeasibility ofmajor projects such as,
forinstance ,dams ,agricultural projects which involve major
modifications totheenvironment and inbeing particularly cautious
inevaluating anyproject which mayhave anegative input on

-54-
tropical -forests ,wetlands ,coastal ecosystems ormountain
ecosystems .Instruments should bedeveloped toassess the long-term
sensitivity ofdevelopment projects tothegreenhouse effect .
Preparedness against natural disaster also atsome stage have tobe
increased ,inrespect ofthetype ofcalamities which thegreenhouse
effect maymake more likely .(Forexample thestrength oftropical
storms which isexpected toincrease .)Inpreparing national
regional conservation strategies oneshould ensure that adequate
account istaken ofthegreenhouse effect .
57.Inparallel tothework needed toevaluate possible policy options ,
existing research programmes should bestrenghten tobetter understand
thepotential impacts ofthegreenhouse effect onEuropean regions .
These programmes should consider both thephysical andthe
socio-economic direct and indirect impacts .
Inthis frame the risks forthecoastline regions oftheCommunity
related topossible sea level rise should beassessed sothat
information useful for land useplanning isavailable todevelopers and
competent authorities .
58.Finally ,theCommission will setupaCommittee toexchange information
onalltheaspects ofthegreenhouse issue .Member States andthe
Commission should berepresented inthis Committee .

55
ANNEX
Recent Major events onthegreenhouse issue

-56-
A.The "VILLACH "Conference (International conference ontheassessment and
therateofCO^andofother greenhouse gases Inclimate variations end
associated Impacts (Villach -Austria ,9-15 October 1985 ))
This conference wasjointly convened byUNEP ,WHOandICSU with
participation ofscientists from twenty nine developed anddeveloping
countries .
Thefollowing sentences appear inthestatement adopted bythis
conference :
"Many important economic andsocial decisions arebeing made today on
long-term projects -major water resource management activities such
asirrigation andhydro-power ;drought relief ;agricultural land use;
structural designs andcoastal engineering projects ;andenergy
planning -allbased ontheassumption that past climatic data ,
without modification ,are areliable guide tothe future .This isno
longer agood assumption since theincreasing concentrations of
greenhouse gases areexpected tocause asignificant warming ofthe
global climate inthenext century ."
"While some warming ofclimate nowappears inevitable duetopast
actions ,therate anddegree offuture warming could beprofoundly
affected bygovernmental policies onenergy conservation ,useof
fossil fuels ,andtheemission ofsome greenhouse gases ."
"Based onevidence ofeffects ofpast climatic changes ,there is
little doubt that afuture change inclimate oftheorder of
magnitude obtained from climate models foradoubling ofthe
atmospheric CC^concentration could haveprofound effects onglobal
ecosystems ,agriculture ,water resources andseaice."

-57-
"Governments andregional inter-governmental organizations should take
into account theresults ofthis assessment (Villach 1985 )intheir
policies onsocial andeconomic development ,environmental
programmes ,andcontrol ofemissions ofradiatively active gases ."
"Public information efforts should beincreased byinternational
agencies andgovernments ontheissues ofgreenhouse gases ,climate
change andsea level ,including wide distribution ofthedocuments of
this Conference (Villach 1985 )."
"Major uncertainties remain inpredictions ofchanges inglobal and
regional precipitation andtemperature patterns .Ecosystem responses
arealso imperfectly known .Nevertheless ,theunderstanding ofthe
greenhouse question issufficiently developed that scientists and
policy-makers should begin anactive collaboration toexplore the
effectiveness ofalternative policies andadjustments .Efforts
should bemade todesign methods necessary forsuch collaboration ."
B.The EECSymposium on"C02andother greenhouse gases :climatic and
associated impacts (Brussels ,3-5November 1986 )
Upon theinitiative ofOr.K.H. Narjes ,Vice-President oftheCommission
ofEuropean Communities ,aSymposium organised bytheCEC,OGXII,was
held inBrussels from3-5 November 1986 .Itwasattended byabout 60
leading European andUSscientists ,whoreviewed thewhole issue ofthe
climate change that will take place asaconsequence oftheaccummulation
oftheatmospheric CO^andother greenhouse gases .
Further totheconclusions onthescientific aspects ofthegreenhouse
issue ,mentioned intherelevant sections ofthis document ,thefollowing
recommendations were presented asaconclusion ofthis Symposium :
"-Thetime hascome fortaking adecisive step toward converting the
dialogue between scientists anddecision makers from aremote ,
intermittent andcasual reading ofreports oftheother party toa
closer andmore interactive exchange ofviews .

58-
-Itisrecommended that ameans beestablished forobtaining the
necessary exchange ofinformation between policy analysts ,decision
makers andthescientific community involved intheissue ."
C.Theworkshops on"Developing policies forresponding toclimatic change "
(Villach ~Austria ,28September -2October 1987 andBellagio -Italy ,
9-13 November 1987 )
These meetings were called following thescientific consensus reached at
theVillach conference inorder to"start policy analysis toidentify the
widest possible range ofsocial responses for limiting oradapting to
climatic changes ".
Apart from thestatement mentioned inparagraph 28ofthis document ,the
following conclusions /recommendations were presented :
"Immediate steps tolimit greenhouse gasemissions
(1)Ozone Protocol Immediate approval andimplementation ofthe
Protocol onSubstances that Deplete theOzone Layer (thereby reducing
CFCemissions ).Recommend that itberatified urgently andthat
after expedited scientific review theparties consider acceleration
oftheschedule for reductions inCFCs andeventual elimination of
emissions notonly forozone layer protection butparticularly for
greenhouse gaslimitation .
(2)Energy Policies
Governments should immediately begin toreexamine their long-term
energy strategies with thegoals ofachieving high end-use
efficiency ,reducing multiple forms ofairpollution andreducing CO2
emissions .Research anddevelopment onalternative (non-fossil )
energy systems must begreatly intensified .
(3)Déforestation Policies
Recommend support forincreased measures toreduce deforestation ,
e.g. locally appropriate actions along thelines oftheTropical
Forest Action Plan ,1987 .Such measures arecurrently necessary
because oftheeffects oftropical deforestation onagriculture ,

59-
energy ,soil erosion ,flooding anddrought ,etc.Thecontribution of
deforestation togreenhouse gasinduced climatic change isapowerful
additional reason formeasures toreduce deforestation .
(4)Other Trace Gases
Measures should betaken toavoid industrial andsocietal actions in
thefuture which unduly contribute toemissions ofgreenhouse gases
totheatmosphere .Examples include landfills thatemitmethane ;^0
reduction strategies ;agricultural practices ,etc.
Immediate steps tolimit theimpact ofsea-level rise
(5)River and Coastal lone Policies
International unions ofgeographic ,coastal andgeodetic andsoil
sciences and/orgovernment agencies should develop maps toidentify
coastal areas vulnerable tosea-level rise ,river regulation and
intensifying land-use .Planning for large newindustrial ,tourist
and urban installations near the sea should allow for the risks of
possible sea-level rise .
Immediate steps toimprove understanding ofthegreenhouse effect and
options fordealing with it
(6)Management tools
Policy andscientific research should investigate further theutility
ofparticular goals asmanagement tools .Anenvironmental goal
expressed interms ofarate ofchange oftemperature orsea-level is
easy torelate toobserved historic rates ofchange .Such an
environmental goal isrelated totheambient concentration of
greenhouse gases (expressed interms ofCO^equivalence )andthus to
theemissions and foreach ofthese ,regulatory targets canbeset in
line with thelong-term environmental goal .

-60
(7)Monitoring
Theproblem ofsignificant climate warming maycall for a
considerable increase inexisting available monitoring activities ,
both with regard toglobal climate anditsvariability andsea-level
changes ,atmospheric chemistry andrainfall chemistry ,aswell asthe
consequences fortheenvironment ofanysignificant warming .
Itistherefore recommended that WMO/WCP (World Meteorological
Organization /World Climate Programme )andUNEP /6EMS (Unite Nations
Environment Programme /Global Environmental Monitoring System )carry
out ajoint study of :
-what newclimate observing system activites arerequired for
monitoring thechanging climate ;
-what activities arerequired formonitoring theconsequences ofthe
changing climate .
TheIOCthrough theGlobal SeaLevel Observing System should give
urgent attention tostrengthening themonitoring ofsea-level changes
worldwide .
(8)Research
ICSU ,UNEP andWMOjointly support theWorld Climate Programme (WCP),
which isthe focus forthefurther study ofboth basic research
issues concerning global climatic change andquestions about climatic
impact .TheWorld Climate Research Programme (WCRP )isanimportant
component oftheWCP,astheassessment ofpossible orlikely future
climatic changes rests onacomprehensive understanding oftheglobal
climate system .
Similarly ,thenewresearch programme IGBP (International Geosphere
Biosphere Programme ),initiated byICSU ,addresses thescientific
problems that wearenowconfronting when trying tounderstand the
biological andgeochemical interactions that contribute tofuture
climatic change andareofimportance forunderstanding climatic
impacts .
Increased support forscientific research forboth theWCRP andIGBP
should begiven high priority ."

61
D.TheBrundtland Commission' sreport
TheWorld Commission onenvironment endDevelopment hasbeen created on
thebasis ofanUNGeneral Assembly resolution in1983 asanindependent
body toformulate andpresent proposals andrecommandations concerning
thecritical environment anddevelopment problems with theaimof
promoting asustainable development .
Itsreport waspresented totheGeneral Assembly ofUNduring its42nd
Session inthe fall of1987 .
This report asks for aurgent start ofnegotiating procedures todevelop
international agreement onstrategies tocope with thegreenhouse issue .
Itissuggested toconsider :
"-improved monitoring andassessment oftheevolving phenomena ;
-increased research toimprove knowledge about theorigins ,
mechanisms ,andeffects ofthephenomena ;
-thedevelopment ofinternationally agreed policies forthereduction
ofthecausative gases ;and
-adoption ofstrategies needed tominimize damage andcope with the
climate changes andrising sealevel ."
Thereport also suggests that such negotiations should aim atan
international convention on"management policies forall
environmentally reactive chemicals released into theatmosphere ".
E.TheEuropean Parliament resolution
TheEuropean Parliament hasadopted on12th September 1986 thefollowing
resolution onmeasures tocounteract therising concentration ofCOgin
theatmosphere :
*TheEuropean Parliament
-having regard tothemotion foraresolution tabled byMr.Linkohr on
research andpolicy measures tocounteract therising concentration
ofcarbon dioxide intheatmosphere ('greenhouse effect' )(Doc .
B2-1430 /84).

62-
-having regard tothereport oftheCommittee onEnergy ,Research and
Technology andtotheopinion oftheCommittee ontheEnvironment ,
Public Health and Consumer Protection (Doc .A2-68 /86).
A.noting thegrowing scientific certainty that theearth 'saverage
temperature srising asaresult ofnon-natural releases into the
atmosphere ofcarbon-dioxide andpropellants from fossil-fuel
burning ,intensive farming andindustrial activities and
deforestation respectively .
B.noting that anincreasing temperature build-up ,which isgreater at
thepoles than attheequator ,will bring about ashift inthe
earth 'sclimatic zones ,resulting inradical and,insome cases ,
disastrous changes ineconomic-activity patterns .
C.pointing out that theonly scientifically established facts about
global temperature build-up arethe scale thereof andthus the
number ofyears remaining until itseffects become apparent ,
assuming nochange inhuman-activity patterns .
D.pointing outtheneed toobtain essential scientific data onthe
slow butperceptible changes intheenvironment oftheworld in
order toestablish theextent ofthe changes taking place ,and the
measures tobetaken toavoid orreduce their unfavourable effects
andtoexploit beneficial consequences .
1.Stresses that itisimperative tomake more-reaching countermeasures
than those currently implemented tocombat pollution ,provided such
measures are directed atreleases ofboth carbon dioxide and
propellants ,since ,contrary toearlier assumption ,thelatter are
just assignificant acause oftemperature build-up astheformer ;
2.Calls upon theCommission ,infuture activities inthefield of
agricultural ,industrial andenergy policy andinnegotiations with
both national and international authorities ,toputforward measures
with aview toasubstantial reduction ofharmful discharges ,thus
benefiting theenvironment too;

63-
3.Emphasizes inthis connection theautomatic benefit tobegained
from large-scale energy-saving andrational useofenergy ,possibly
intandem with exploitation ofcleaner energy sources andflue-gas
purification respectively ;
4.Calls foraworldwide policy ofreafforestation ,forwhich the
Community should provide anexample with itsownforestry policy ;
5.Calls forfinancial Community development policy measures tohelp
put anendtothedeforestation ofrain forests inThird World
countries ;
6.Calls ontheCouncil when drawing upthenewframework programme for
research toallocate more resources tothearea ofclimatology ,
especially relating tochanging temperature gradients including
ocean-atmosphere interaction ;
7.Stresses that preventing pollution oftheworld 'sseas isan
essential requirement forclimatic stability ;
8.Recalls that itisincumbent upon the industrialized countries of
theNorthern hemisphere ,which arelargely responsible for
jeopardizing climate ,toensure that thedeveloping nations are
given access tothe latest technological know-how ;
9.Instructs itsMembers ,incollaboration with therelevant scientific
quarters ,toinform thepublic -andparticularly theoperators
directly responsible -about theimplications ofthehuman
activities inquestion ,while explaining theneed foreffective
measures ;
10.Instructs itscommittee responsible toinclude intheir opinions a
climatic-impact assessment offuture Community-level activities with
aview toreducing thecurrent temperature build-up ;
11.Instructs itsPresident toforward this resolution andthe report of
itscommittee totheCouncil andtheCommission ."

Arbeitsprogramm der Kommission zur Beurteilung der
Möglichkeiten zurVerringerung der mit dem
“Trelbhauseffekt "verbundenen Risiken
I. PROGRAMM INHALT
Das Programm soll die Grundlagen für die Bestimmung der Rolle schaffen ,
die die Gemeinschaft und die Mitgi iedstaaten bei der Festlegung und
Befürwortung dernotwendigen Massnahmen zurVerringerung derRisiken des
Treibhauseffekts indenentsprechenden internationalen Gremien übernehmen
könnten .
Hierzu sieht dasArbeitsprogramm folgende Themenkreise vor :
A.Bestimmung derMöglichkeiten zurVermeidung bzw .Reduzierung
der Emissionen von Treibhausgasen
Ermittlung der notwendigen Massnahmen zur Erreichung strategischer
Sollwerte für die Verringerung der Emissionen verschiedener
Treibhausgase .
Hierzu bedarf esjeweils einer genauen Einschätzung der bestehenden
Möglichkeiten zurEmissionsverringerung ,desentsprechenden Grads der
Emissionsverringerung und des Massnahmenpakets ,das zur Erreichung
strategischer Sollwerte erforderlich ist .DasMassnahmenpotential zur
Vermeidung bzw .Reduzierung derEmissionen soll infolgenden Bereichen
geprüft werden :
-Energieerzeugung ;
-Energieverbrauch (einschliesslich Verkehr );
-Industriproduktion ;
-Verwendung derProdukte ;

-2-
-landwirtschaftliche Erwerbstät Igke Iten .
Esbedarf eines geeigneten Konzepts ,umderspezifischen Situation der
Länder oder Ländergruppen Rechnung zutragen .Insbesondere sind
folgende Aspekte zuberücksichtigen :
-Stand derwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung ;
-derzeltlge Energlepol itiken ;
-Géographie .
B.Auswirkungen möglicher Massnahmen zurEmissionsverringerung
Die Möglichkeiten der Emissionsverringerung sind unter folgenden
Aspekten zuprüfen
-technische und industrielle Auswirkungen ;
-finanzielle undwirtschaftliche Auswirkungen ;
-politische ,institutionelle und soziale Auswirkungen .
C.Entwicklung eines Rahmens für die Entscheidungsanalyse
Entwicklung eines Rahmens zur Strukturierung der vorliegenden
Informationen über alle Aspekte des Treibhauseffekts ,um den
voraussichtlichen Nutzen (d.h .die Verringerung des Risikos einer
Klimaänderung u.a.)bestimmter Lösungsmöglichkeiten zuermitteln .
Dabei sind folgende Gesichtspunkte zuberücksichtigen :
-Emissionen und Emissionsverringerung ;
-Auswirkungen derEmissionsverringerung ;
-verfügbare wissenschaftliche Daten über denpotentiellen
Nutzen alternativer Emissionskontrollen .
BeiderFestlegung desRahmens sind dieUnsicherheitsfaktoren inbezug
auf Emissionen ,Wirksamkeit der Kontrollen ,Klimaänderung und
Klimaeffekte zuberücksichtigen und diewahrscheinlichsten Ergebnisse
verschiedener Massnahmen zuermitteln .

-3-
Anhand dieses Rahmens soll ausserdem festgestellt werden ,welche
Auswirkungen eine Verzögerung der Aktion haben wird .Durch
Strukturierung des Problems und Ermittlung wesentlicher
Unsicherheitsbereiche ,indenen konkrete Ergebnisse vonentscheidender
Bedeutung sein können ,wird mit diesem Rahmen ein wichtiges Werkzeug
zur Beurteilung von Massnahmen und zur Ausrichtung der künftigen
Forschung aufSchiüsse Ifragen derEntscheidungsanalyse geschaffen .
D.Einschätzung des voraussichtlichen Nutzens verschiedener Möglichkeiten
anhand eines Rahmens zur Entscheidungsanalyse ;Erstellung von Klima-
und Impaktszenarien aufgrund derMöglichkeiten zur Emissionskontrolle
Anhand des Rahmens werden die potentiellen Ergebnisse der
Möglichkeiten zur Emissionsverringerung und die entsprechenden
Zeitpläne (Szenarios ) ermittelt .Ferner soll die relative
Wahrscheinlichkeit des damit erreichten Nutzens angegeben werden .
E.Bestimmung und Bewertung der notwendigen Anpassungsmassnahmen für die
gemäss Punkt Derarbeiteten Szenarios
Selbst bei Einführung von Massnahmen zur Emissionskontrolle wird es
noch immer Restrisiken durch ehemalige und weiterhin erzeugte
Emissionen indie Atmosphäre geben .Daher sind Anpassungsmassnahmen
(z.B. zum Schutz der Menschen ,des Eigentums ,der Landwirtschaft ,
sowie der wirtschaftlichen und natürlichen Mittel )erforderlich ,um
diese Risiken Inden Griff zubekommen .ImRahmen des Programms
werden die wichtigsten Restrisiken ihrem Umfang nach bestimmt und
lokalisiert und die kostenmässigen und zeitlichen Auswirkungen
verschiedener Anpassungsmassnahmen geschätzt .Dabei sind Prioritäten
fürdiese Massnahmen zusetzen ,umdiegrösstmögl iche Reduzierung der
Restrisiken mit den verfügbaren Mitteln zuerreichen und den
Schwerpunkt aufSchlüsselbereiche zulegen .

-4-
II.DETAILLIERTE AUFSTELLUNG DERTÄTIGKEITEN
Die Durchführung des Programms erfordert unter anderem folgende
Arbeiten :
A.Emissionsanalyse und Bestimmung der Möglichkeiten _ zur
Emiss lonsverr Ingerung
I. Erstellung von Emissionsvor hersagen für die einzelnen
Treibhausgase .DieEmissionen sind (a)nach Regionen und (b)
nach politischen , strategischen und wirtschaftlichen
Gruppierungen aufzuschlüsseln .
ii. Bestimmung derFaktoren (abgesehen vonKontroi Imassnahmen ),die
voraussichtliche künftige Emissionen beeinflussen werden .
Einschätzung der Wahrscheinlichkeit dieser Faktoren und
Entwicklung alternativer Emissionsszenarios .
iii .Ermittlung dervorhandenen Möglichkeiten zurEmiss ionskontroi le
der einzelnen Treibhausgase .Einschätzung des Grads der
potentiellen Reduktion nach den jeweiligen Emissionsszenarios .
B.Einschätzung derAuswirkungen möglicher Emissionskontrollen
I. Bestimmung der Durchführbarkeit ,derKosten und des Zeitplans
der verschiedenen Massnahmen zurEmissionsverringerung .
II. Einschätzung dersozialen undwirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen .
iii .Bestimmung der Ausbreitungseffekte (a)innerhalb einzelner
Länder ,(b)Länderübergreifend ,(c)inbezug aufpolitische und
strategische Gruppierungen .

C.Festlegung eines Rahmens zur Integration der ImLaufe des Programms
erarbeiteten Informationen
Anhand dieses Rahmens sollt(en ):
die Auswirkungen alternativer Massnahmen einschliesslich der
Kosten unddespotentiellen Nutzens aufgezeigt werden ;
- die Auswirkungen von Massnahmen zuverschiedenen Zeitpunkten
erläutert werden ;
-die Fundiertheit etwaiger Entscheidungen (über Kontroll -und
Anpassungsstrategien ) unter Berücksichtigung der
Unsicherheitsfaktoren inBezug auf Vorhersagen und verfügbare
wissenschaftliche Daten nachgewiesen werden ;
ein Schwerpunkt auf die künftigen Forschungsarbeiten gelegt
werden ,die zur Unterstützung der erforderlichen Entscheidungen
notwendig sind .
D.Einschätzung von Strategien zur Emissionskontrolle
i. Bestimmung des voraussichtlichen Nutzens der
Emissionskontrol (Strategien .Diese Aufgabe erfordert eine
kritische Überprüfung der Zusammenhänge zwischen den
Treibhausgaskonzentrationen und der globalen Erwärmung unter
besonderer Berücksichtigung der Rückkopplungssysteme ,des
zeitlichen Verlaufs und derAuswirkungen aufregionale Klimate .
II. Aufgrund dieser kritischen Überprüfung ist die
Wahrscheinlichkeit der alternativen Vorhersagen und ihrer
Implikationen einzuschätzen .

-6-
Dabei sollen dieMeinungen derbedeutendsten Sachverständigen
berücksichtigt undnach Möglichkeit Wahrscheinlichkeitsfaktoren
zugeordnet werden ,umdieUnsicherheit verschiedener Ergebnisse
zuverdeutlichen .
lii .Anhand dieser Daten und der erarbeiteten Informationen über
Emissionsverringerungen (A)und deren Folgen (B)werden mit
Hilfe desEntscheidungsrahmens (C)Kosten ,Nutzen undsonstige
Auswirkungen alternativer Massnahmen zur Emissionskontrolle
eingeschätzt .
E.Beurteilung von Anpassungsmassnahmen
i. Prüfung der Auswirkungen versch iedener Erwärmungsstufen
insbesondere auf die europäische Infrastruktur und die
Nahrungsmittel Versorgung ;Bestimmung weiterer wesentlicher
Folgen .Einschätzung der Auswirkungen auf andere politische
undwirtschaftliche Ländergruppierungen .
ii. Überprüfung der Massnahmen ,die sich angesichts der
potentiellen Veränderungen (i) anbieten (z.B. neue
Getreidesorten ,Umstellung derPlanung ,u.a.).
iii .Aufgrund dergemäss (D)durchgeführten Beurteilung unddesnach
Punkt (C)entwickelten Rahmens :Einschätzung der Kosten und
des Nutzens alternativer Anpassungsmassnahmen ;Beurteilung der
Wahrscheinlichkeit ,dass sich solche Massnahmen angesichts der
vorhergesagten Folgen alswirksam erweisen .
III .LEITLINIEN FÜRDIEDURCHFÜHRUNG DESPROGRAMMS
A.Bei der Durchführung des Programms wird die Kommission andere
einschlägige Initiativen berücksichtigen , die sowohl auf
Gemeinschaftsebene alsauch weltweit durchgeführt werden ,z.B. :

-7-
dieEG-Forschungsprogramme iiber Kllmatologie undNaturr Isiken -,
die EG-Forschungsprogramme derGemeinsamen Forschungsstellen über
Energieerhaltung ,Sonnenenergie und thermische Umwandlung ,
nukleare Sicherheit ,usw .;
die Ergebnisse der Jüngsten Internationalen Konferenzen (z.B. der
Konferenz über dieVeränderung derAtmosphäre ,die imJuni 1988 in
Toronto stattfand );
dieTätigkeiten derUNEP /WHO-Arbe itsgruppe fürKlimaänderungen ;
usw .
Hierzu wird die Kommission eine sachgerechte Zusammenarbeit mit den
jeweiligen Organisationen entwickeln .
B.Mit Unterstützung des inArtikel 1des Beschlusses genannten
Ausschusses wird die Kommission die Verfahren und konkreten Schritte
für dieses Arbeitsprogramm definieren und fest legen ,welche
Informationen von denMitgliedstaaten zuliefern sind .
Die zuständigen Organisationen und Ministerien der Mitgliedstaaten
werden andiesen Arbeiten über denobengenannten Ausschuss beteiligt .
IV .FINANZIERUNG DES PROGRAMMS
Dieerforderlichen Mittel fürdieDurchführung desProgramms werden auf 6
Millionen ECUveranschlagt .

Vorschlag einer
Entsch Iiessung desRates über den "Treibhauseffekt und
die Gemeinschaft "
DER RAT DER EUROPÄISCHEN GEMEINSCHAFTEN
gestützt auf den Vertrag zur Gründung der Europäischen
Wirtschaftsgemeinschaft ,
aufVorschlag derKommission ,
inErwägung nachstehender Gründe :
Der durch die Einheitliche Europäische Akte geänderte Vertrag zur
Gründung der Europäischen Wirtschaftsgemeinschaft sieht die
Entwicklung und die Durchführung einer gemeinschaftlichen
Umweltpolitik vor ;ersieht ebenfalls vor ,dass dieGemeinschaft bei
der Ausarbeitung ihrer Tätigkeiten auf diesem Gebiet insbesondere
den wissenschaftlichen und technischen Daten sowie den Vorteilen und
Belastungen ,die sich aus einer Massnahme oder aus ihrer
Unterlassung ergeben können ,Rechnung trägt .
Die vorliegende Entsch Iiessung geht von denErläuterungen aus ,die
inder Entsch Iiessung vom 19.Oktober 1987 bezüglich eines
Aktionsprogrammes der Europäischen Gemeinschaften für den
Umweltschutz ^)enthalten sind ,d.h .der Zweckmässigkeit ,auf der
geeigneten Ebene tätig zu werden ,sowie der Notwendigkeit ,
(1) ABI . Nr. C328 vom 7.12.1987 , S. 1

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dieArbeiten auf internationaler Ebene zukoordinieren ,dieVorteile
und Belastungen aufgrund der geplanten Massnahmen abzuschätzen
sowie dieselben inangemessener Weise technisch und politisch
vorzubereiten .
Die vorliegenden wissenschaftlichen Daten ,insbesondere die
Ergebnisse der gemeinschaftlichen Umweltprogramme ,weisen darauf
hin ,dass die Zusammensetzung der Atmosphäre merklich durch die
Aktivitäten des Menschen verändert wird ;inAnbetracht der
vorhandenen klimatologischen Modelle könnte dies mit der Zeit durch
den sogenannten "Treibhauseffekt "Veränderungen des Klimas
hervor rufen und somit wichtige Auswirkungen auf die Umwelt ,den
Menschen und seine Aktivitäten haben .
InAnbetracht der Art und der Dimensionen der Risiken ,die durch den
Treibhauseffekt hervorgerufen werden ,istesdringend notwendig ,die
möglichen Massnahmen zuuntersuchen ,die diese Risiken verhindern
Λoder reduzieren konnten .
Ein sehr weiter Konsensus wurde während der kürzlichen
internationalen Konferenz erreicht hinsichtlich der Notwendigkeit ,
dringend Massnahmen inBetracht zuziehen ,umdieEmissionen der für
den Treibhauseffekt verantwortlichen Gase zureduzieren .
Aufgrund der Komplexität des "Treibhauseffektes ",der vielfältigen
und weitreichenden Auswirkungen dieses Effektes und der inBetracht
zuziehenden Massnahmen zurVerhinderung oder Linderung der Folgen
isteine vorhergehende gründliche Prüfung dermöglichen politischen
Optionen notwendig .Diese muss mit geeigneten Methodologien
verwirklicht werden ,die inangemessener Weise den Unsicherheiten
Rechnung tragen ,die auf verschiedenen Gebieten dieses Themas noch
bestehen .

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Es ist von grösster Wichtigkeit ,dass die Gemeinschaft und ihre
Mitgliedstaaten inderLage sind ,einen grundlegenden Beitrag zuden
Überlegungen und zur Erarbeitung eventueller politischer
Entscheidungen imgeeigneten internationalen Rahmen zuliefern ,um
inwirksamster Weise gegen dieRisiken einer Klimaänderung Vorgehen
zukönnen .
Begrüsst dieMitteilung derKommission über den "Treibhauseffekt und
die Gemeinschaft "und ist mit deren Schlussfolgerungen und
Empfehlungen einverstanden .
Erklärt dass die Gemeinschaft den Risiken der durch den
Treibhauseffekt herbeigeführten potentiellen Klimaänderungen mehr
Beachtung widmen sollte und weitgehend dazu beitragen sollte
Überlegungen und Diskussion über mögliche Gegenmassnahmen zu
unterstützen .
Begrüsst die Initiative derKommission einArbeitsprogramm über die
Beurteilung der politischen Optionen zur Verringerung der mit dem
Treibhauseffekt verbundenen Risiken zustarten und ist mit den
Zielen eines solchen Programmes einverstanden .
Ersucht die Mitgliedstaaten aktiv mit der Gemeinschaft inder
Ausführung des oben genannten Arbeitsprogrammes zusammenzuarbeiten
und ihre relevanten Tätigkeit über den Treibhauseffekt indiesem
Rahmen zukoordinieren .
Ersucht die Kommission dem Rat und dem Europäischen Parlament bis
Mitte 1990 einen Zwischenbericht und bis Ende 1991 einen Endbericht
über dieErgebnisse undSchlussfolgerungen dieses Arbeitsprogrammes
zuunterbreiten .