The Liverpool Standard and General Commercial Advertiser.
Liverpool, Merseyside, England, 1840-01-03 00:00:00

LIVERPOOL COTTON BROKERS' CIRCULAR.

Liverpool, 31a1 December, 1830.
Uproot's were wanting of the fallibility of all attempts to
Peeetrate the mysterieSof: the cotton question, they are to
be 'fijund in the history of Mum- last twelve months,•wherein
are developed factaand conclusions so .widely at variance 'with
tlw reeeonings andopposite predictions of men . equally sa-,
eaCiettsiu .Commercial affairs, that the merit of being right. .
even,by-eccident,
.would seem to have been denied to all. . A
brief. notice of tlie position of the market, and of the state-al
public opinion at the commencement of the'year, will serve
to.confirint he justice of this observation. •
conflicting. Aecounts ae to the extent of the coming
erOp had invested the subject ;ofd with amore that% or-
dinary interest. For two 4enees from. the
Ueited Stat 6 had been eteadit); PPIPPOglot?,4lle. Probeihrlity--
,of alargeale*ieuey; antlthe st-Itytteali details by which they,
were ecconaparned, iinpAited to tleein An. air .Of truth, well
calculated to recommend them to.general acceptance ; though •
it must be admitted that the. professed believers at this early
period were comparatively few. The majority entertained
doubts, partly from information derived from sources equally
deserving of credit, and partly from the absence of any as-
certained.cause:sufficient to explain se extensive a failure in
the crop as that alleged. The only one assigned was a drought
in the spring; out, from the silence of the planters at the
time, who are usually not A:4 to complain, it- was reasonably
concluded that the mischief was neither serious nor wide-
spreading. Saying this, there had been nothing unpropitious
in the seasons from wind or rein, or premature frost; and
when it is 'considered that the growth of the United States-
had exhibited,: for a series of years, (with but a solitary ex-
ception,) a constant average increase of 120,000 bales, it did
require a combination of adverse circumstances, far stronger
than any which appeared, to surrender not merely the cus-
tomary annual increase, but to reconcile the falling off, be- -
eides, of 150,000 bales. From the effects, however, which
these reports, whether well or ill founded, had upon prices,
it may be suspected that the numbers who secretly partici-
pated in the fors of a scarcity were by.no means ineoneid.e-e,
rable ; though it may be regarded, perhaps, as a fortunate
circumstance, that the less • sanguine views upon the subject .
oit6isibly prevailed. None of the authorities in the cotton
circles committed themselves to asinaller crop than 1,800,000 •
bales, and the portionapproeriated to this country varied from
900;000 bales to 1,030,000 bales ; adding to this the import
from other places, estimated at 305,000 bales, the same as the
preceding year, and -the -stock -in the ports; 32r,000 bales ;
also the stock held by the trade above their uanal compli-
Ment, stated to be '60,000 bales, and deducting 102,000 bales
Of re,exportation,/q,geve a supulrfor the service of the year,
ranging frntVl ' ,1,100-bales7}o4;o4,lQQ, bales.. From the
Smaller of ifiefe.l'quetititieS.A6 -more ardent believers in a
ishort emote-defined a reduct*:,Of 150,000 bales, leaving as a
ieinimum, for the year's eoesuinption, 1,334,10(} bales. But
\Vhatver diversity of opinion existed es to the supplies, the
roost perfect. uniformity obtained 'on another no -less im
pintalit item of- the calculation,- the consumption, which by
cornmen consent Nem fiXed, at, not less than 24,000 hates,per
T,tl4B',(x)6lYal6.f#th'e 'year; being the moderate in -
preaSeofereoly pittr cent, on fliat of the -year Atetneee
hatAititteratftthe 'probability of any, material diminution
would have, been, *ermae.d a sort of heresy, unlessindeed on the
only grounds ,that; Were admitted, extrava,eantly. hightnicese
owing tethe Seat'cleklbf the raw material ! Under the influence
'of these impressions, prices had gradually advanced !shim:
October (when they were at the lowest) lid. to 2d. per tb ;
portionfairUplands being at sad. per ii;,and other qualities iii pitc
Such were the state and. prospects of the.cottemnamAtatintl
the first week in January. Amongst other topics ofetpanell
lation was the part which the " United-States Bank" intended
to play in the commercial operations of the year. The wove-
ments of this body were therefore watched with somiliiiiktyt
as it was obvious that a crop so much reduced Woutilitier gar
easy prey to its monopolizing grasp, and theit any. large por-
tion of it being held up,- whether on •the:other side of the
water or on this, would tend greatly to aggravate the evils of
a scanty supply. - All doubts, however, were cleared up on
this point before the middle of the month, by the appearance.
of a letter from Mr. Biddle, in which he distinetly declared,
that, having succeeded in the purpose of his interference,
which was to protect the " prostrate planter" from the
" reckless waste" of the British merchants, the means by
which that object had been accomplished " were relin-
quished, but that now they had totally and finally.ceased."
But. other parties had taken the field, " both willing •and
able, as Mr. Biddle expresses it, to do justice to " American
interests." The principal importers manifested the sin-
cerity of their own belief, by withholding their cotton
as it arrived from the market, in which they were encou-
raged- by each succeeding account being more confirma-
tory than the last, as to the deficiency of the crop. The
trade, on the other hand, fairly stocked with cotton, and
without any corresponding demand for goods and yarns, de-
clined entering into competition with the speculator ; and,
with their habitual scepticism, kept aloof, their purchases
being considerably within what was required for their then
weekly consumption. About the first week in March, how-
ever, when the advices from the States assumed a still more
decisive character, their fears appear to have been thoroughly
awakened, and joining with the speculators in a simultaneous
rush upon the market, hi that and the two following weeks
they secured 96,000 bales, at an advance, first and last, of ld,
to lid. per lb. This seemed to be the expiring effort of-the
market ; for afterwards it sank into a state of the most ex-
treme depression, in which it continued with scarcely agleam
of sunshine for sixteen weeks. Between the 23d of March
and the 18th of July, prices fell 21-d per lb., the sales to the
trade, from the same period, averaging. only 12,000 per week.
The spring demand had tailed in hringieg the anticipated re-
lief, and the stockS in the manufacturers' hands bad accumu-
lated to an extent that rendered the working " short time,"
with many a measure rather of necessity than of choice.
Though this curtailment in the hours of spinning was suffi-
ciently extensive to produce a sensible effect on the amount
of business, it was considered scarcely adequate' to explain so
protracted a cessation of the demand, and hence it was rather
hastily concluded by some, that the quantity held by the
trade at the end of the year- had been underrated by some
20,000 or 30,000 bales. Could the existence of so large an
error have been proved, the discovery at this critical juncture
would, indeed, have. been a fatal 1)low to the hopes of the
holders ; for the excess could -not be looked upon merely in
the light of a simple addition to the stock, but from its hav-
ing contributed-to swell the apparent consumption of last
year, and by consequence of this also, it would have led to a
constantly increasing error in. the-stock in-the kingdont front
the commencement of the
_year " But the foremost of all the
diffietiftlei:With whitioh-gimarket was beset, was the pressure
for. money, which, taking the rate of oonuncreial discountias
test, Was. always severe, end Sometimecintensely so; •The
fairness of this critedeb,•-however,. as aemedium of cow-
Parison with former years, may perhaps7he.euestioned;
by the relaxation of the usury laws, an increased facility,er
raisingemoneyarpon • billeeleW'fferlAiffiaea;"-th- the gscou-
ragement of other financial expetlietltmesterted to in cases of
embarrassnitftit; \Odd), in gee' Shape 'tir other, are in reality
inure costly to the parties eccommodated- To _this cause
also-maybe referred the escape from those extremes in the
depression of prices, (for fair 14ikanste-4giVe. never fallen be-
low Old; per lb:) Which on previous occasions of mercantile
distress have been the necessarTreitirtOf a general tereingrof
stales as the. only legal means:mot meeting- pressing.etigage-
meats.
Towards the Jtily',lthe stocks of cotton n the
hands of the trade mere evidently exhausted, and the, 'market
began to show signs of returning animatiun.... But:the _game
was up ; the contest- bet Ween " short crop" and " short time"
had terminated in favour of the latter, and the year was too
far advanced to recover the lost ground, time quantity-on hand
being more than enough toenSiver any calls that.in the scope
of possibility could be made upon it. Although-Abu import
by the third week in July, from the United Senesehad fallen
short by- 280,000 bales, and from other quarters by 20,000
hales, the stock in this port alone tonaunteittOs33,ooo bales,
which, being composed nine-tenths of American cotton, con-
verted the small numerical difference between the present and
the stock at the corresponding period of the year preeeeding,
into an increase of no trifling -magnitude. Prices had now
reached their lowest point ; in the last week in July they ad-
vanced id. to id. per Ib, but in the next they declined id.
per lb, which, however, was regained in the following week.
From the second week in Aueust the movement was uni-
formly downwards,-by gradations of id. per lb nearly each
successive week, with a slight check about time end of Octo-
ber, till the middle of November, when prices realised id.
per lb, on - some very vague reports of the crop having sus-
tained injury from another drought. The accounts by the
next packet, however, dissipated these apprehensions, and
the market relapsed again into its former state of inactivity,
prices at the same time drooping, being lid. per lb lower for
American descriptions on the last day of the year than on the
first ; whilst the prices of Brazils' which had not been sub-
ject to the same fluctuations, closed as nearly as possible time
same.
Since the revival of the deniand in July, the market may
he said to have been, on the whole, rather animated titan
otherwise, the sales having averaged 27,667 bales- per week.
Of this quantity 65,000 bales have been taken by speculators,
and 64,800 bales bona' fide for export; leaebig for home con-
sumption 22,260 bales per week. It has already been ob-
served, that the state of cotton in the interior was reduced to
the lowest ebb at the end of June,' which, for the purpose of
estimating the rate of consumption for the latter half of the
year, may be regarded as a sort of starting point. Limited
as, no doubt, the stock in the hands of the trade is at time
present time, it must he greater than at the period alluded to
by some 25,000 to 30,000 bales, as the quantity. .in lralmsilu
must always preserve a certain proportion with' the quantity
in use. On these data, therefore, the average. consumption
of the last six months, out of this market, will. appear to be
about 21,050 bales per week; hat some mills for 'particular
qualities of yarn are still working short time, and others, not
a few, are wholly standupg for want of the means or the credit
to carry them on. In the face of prospects so discouraging,
it is surprising that prices should have-been so well sustained ;
but many of the principal importers stood pledged to parties
on time other side to wait the issue of the crop ; and specula-
tors were always on the alert to take advantage of monetary
depressions. To speculation account must be placed, also a
portion of the business reported for shipment, which, it is
understood, was retained for re-sale, "on the spot.
For full particulars, relating to stocks and: imports, refer-
ence is requested to the annexed tables, which have been
much enlarged and improved, and will be found to contain a
variety of details, useful and interesting to those who are
minutely investigating the subject. The first object which
will attract notice is a defalcation of no less than 308,540
bales in the import from the United States-e-a result con-
firming time accuracy of the advices early in the year, and
furnishing an ample justification of those who tteted'upon
them, whose hard fate it has been to pin their faith upon a
single fact, which, could it have been foreseen in its reality,
would have been pronounced, with one voice, to be alL.sufli-
cient to the anticipated end. Nor has the deficiency been
supplied from other places, but rather the reverse; a small
increase from India is more than counterbalanced by a fall-
ing off from Brazil, the import from which quarter has been
nearly stationary cur some years. The imports of-Egyptian,
and of miscellaneous kinds, are, as nearly as possible, the
same. But the utmost important item is, the- decrease in the
consumption. The stock, as ascertained by the annual
returns, which there- is every reason to' believe have been
made in the strictest good faith, amounts to 250,490 bales, of
which there are in Liverpool 206,050 bales, London 31,640
bales, and Glasgow 27,800 bales. Deducting this quantity,
and what has been re exported, from the total import into
the kingdom, and the stock on hand on the Ist January, the
deliveries to the trade have been 1,058,676 bales ; hut in order
to arrive at the eonsumptiou, to this quantity must be added
what is held in the interior less than at time same period last
year, generally estimated at 70,000 bales, the trade being
supposed to hold at the present time not more than 80,000
bales ; thus the quantity actually consumed has been on the
average 21,706 bales per week, or a decrease of 1335 bales
per week'from the consmeption of last year.
In comparing the stocks as returned, with the weekly
statements prepared by this.association, sonic important dis-
crepaneies will be observed: Of American cotton the quan-
tity appears to be less than was supposed by 27,830 bales,
and •of Beazils by 5,100 bales, whilst the stock of Egyptian
is 2,800.ba1e5,, and of East India 5,580 bales'mere. Assum-
ing that the stock bee. been correctly returned, of. which
there is no'titnee to doubt, the differences can only be ac-
counted fore-lis follows; viz.: in' American and BraAls, by
, supposing that a quantity of bothaney have been forwarded,
unsold, up the country, the returns of which have been
furnished bra different manlier to fernier years ; time excess
in Egyptian_ and. Surat heslirobably.heen occasioned by con-
signments from London and Glasgow,, which, are krwwn to
have been considerahlOiliiVisihich arill'fiut included in the
import. nwf •••
It has been usual to conclude the summarFrof the ;year's
transactions by some opinions of the future tliongli reeeet
experience tendetila,llilreigaueretiiritk4ilthege:gt4atui-
ious predictions.. The mrit. begiAT singWaryAtianfitrous
one -to' .the Maiitifattut6t, 'f ,4spinner, audit tre urerchant.
•The former began the year encumbered with heavy stocks,
entering into competition with the produce of the