The Liverpool Standard and General Commercial Advertiser.
Liverpool, Merseyside, England, 1847-09-21 00:00:00

THE LIVERPOOL STANDARD.

THE ECONOMIST AND THE SUPPLY OF
FOOD.

It is a proper inquiry which the Economist, and other
organs, who have, during the past year, been engaged in
keeping up the high prices of grain, have proposed for
consideration at this crisis :—Are the present prices of
food justified by the circumstances and prospects of the
country ? Entertaining, as we do, different views from,
those put forth by these journalists, and deeply im-
pressed, by the deplorable failures which have recently
taken place amongst commercial men, with a sense of the
importance of eliciting the real truth upon the question,
we purpose devoting a column to an examination of some
statistics bearing upon the subject, and the conclusions
derived from them in an article which appeared in the
Economist last week.

It will be remembered, by those who are in the habit of
perusing that able journal, that, in its pnblication in June
last, when the average price of wheat was above 995. per
quarter, the Economist placed before the public his views
with respect to the probable future supply of food, as
bearing upon the question of the prices which might be
expected to rule. The conclusion drawn was in favour of
continued high prices, and was arrived at from the follow-
ing considerations, as stated by himself :

" First.—The prospect of the potato crop.
"Second.—The prospects of the grain crops.
" Third.—The stocks existing in farmers' hands.
" Fourth.—The probable extent of foreign supplies.
" Fifth.—The extent of foreign grain held in stock."

With respect to the potatoe crop, his opinion was that
in England only one-third, in Scotland one-fifth, and in
Ireland one-third the breadth of land usually in potato
cultivation was devoted to the growth of that vegetable,
the remaining two-thirds being either sown with other
descriptions of food or uncultivated. Putting aside the
prospects of rot, and assuming that one acre of potatoes
produces food equal to three acres sown with wheat, he
calculated upon a deficiency to arise from this source.
The prospects of the Grain crops at that time were bad ;
hut the fine weather with which we have since been visited
has overthrown this portion of his calculations_ The
wheat crop he considers a full one, not, however, differing
much from that of last year ; whilst oats and barley are
much better than his anticipations.
The third consideration was the limited quantity, of
grain held in the farmers' hands; and his views in this
particular, he considered, had then been confirmed by
the decreased quantity delivered in the month immedi-
ately preceding June in the 290 towns from which the
averages are taken, as compared with the deliveries in the
previous year, and which he considers have been fu'rther
substantiated by the further decrease which has taken
place up to the present period. The correctness of this
mode of proof may well be doubted. Our own experience,
indeed, leads to the conclusion, that growers having once
overstocked their market, the deliveries at receding prices
would depend more than anything else upon their power
to hold ; and farmers, generally, who must undoubtedly
have procured high prices for a portion of their stocks,
would be in a favourable position to stand their ground in
the hope of a reaction. Our contemporary contends
from these statistics, that "as regards the opinions
formed in June, with respect to all the domestic questions
affecting the uture prospect of our supplies of food,
events have so far shown them to be nearly as true as
possible." In addition to what we have above, as to the
mode in which the stocks in farmers' hands are arrived at,
we must demur to our contemporary's statement as to the
extent to which potato cultivation has been given up ; and
moreover, we must remind him of his omission of all
consideration of the other esculents (turnips, carrots,
wurzels, and other feeding roots,) by which the potato
has been superseded. With respect to the fourth element
of continued high prices—the short supplies of grain to
be expected from foreign countries—the Economist con-
fesses himself to have been deceived, the stocks left in
America having proved to bu greater and having come
forward faster than he anticipated. Other countries too,
tempted by high prices, have contributed largely to our
supply. Our contemporary contends, however, that our
prospects for the coming year are not materially bright-
ened by these facts, which he attempts to prove by a com-
parison of the stocks with which we have to commence
the consumption of the new crops this year with those
which we had on hand at the corresponding period of last
year. _ - _ _ _ _

On the sth of June, this year, we had in bond,
of grain of all sorts, 1,855,439 quarters. We imported
up to sth September 1,249,541 quarters ; making a total
supply during the three months, of 3,104,000 quarters.
On the sth of June we had in bond, of flour and meal,
1,299,378 cwt. ; we imported up to September sth,
1,310,534 cwt., making a total supply of 2,609,912 cwt.
Reducing the stock of flour and meal in qrs. of grain, the
total quantity available for consumption, from June sth
to September sth, was—
Grain of all kinds .. 3,104,000 qrs.
Flour and meal equivalent in grain to 745,689 „

Total 3,849,689 qrs.

In the present year our contemporary says, " the imports
from the sth June to the sth of September may be taken
as a fair indication of the entire supplies, inasmuch as
up to the end of May, while the imports were on a limited
scale, they were delivered direct to the consumer from the
ship, and no accumulations took place in warehouse."
We must demur altogether to this mode of putting the
question. It is not fair, in the first plate to assume that
the imports up to the end of May went immediately into
consumption, merely because they did not go into bond,
and, consequently, there was no official record kept.
They went " immediately from the ship " it is true ; but
whither ? To our free warehouses in the ports. Large
quantities also went direct into the country, not necessa-
rily into consumption, but to be warehoused in the interior
markets until wanted. It is moreover a legitimate con-
clusion, that in June 1846, with the immediate prospect
of the release of bonded stocks by the passing of the
Reform Bill, little or no foreign duty-paid would be on
hand ; and millers and consumers consequently more
bare than in June 1847, when the imports had gone
direct into the market as they arrived. Taking, however,
our contemporary's own position, we find the imports for
the three months, from sth June to sth September 1847,
to have been—
Grain 3,772,354 qrs.

If, therefore, her means were ample, as they proved, last
year, when she had not only Great Britain, but Europe,
besieging her ports for grain, what must be her ability to
supply us this year, when the countries of Europe shall
have become exporting instead of importing countries.
We ourselves shared our supplies with those countries
last year. Now they are in a position to supply Great
Britain. Our Irish difficulty has, at the least, decreased,
if it has not yet been surmounted. Scotland may not
have more potatos this year than last, but she has a
greater quantity of other crops ; and she will not con-
sume so wastefully as last year, supplied as she then
was with our money, and thrown, as she now is, more
upon her own resources. At home, in Great Bri-
tain, we have a full, and probably a much more than ave-
rage harvest, got in good condition and of excellent qua-
lity. There is every probability, too, and we lament it,
that our working population in the coming year will be
driven by the insufficiency of employment to limit their
consumption. Our green crops are abundant; and, al-
though we are deficient in our supply of potatoes, and
some of the crops may be failures, the deficiency will be
almost made up by the increased supply of other roots,
available for feeding purposes. Viewing all these circum-
stances, we feel assured that a period, not only of low
prices of food, but of glutted markets, is before us. We
may not experience this state of things immediately. It
takes some little time for prices to adjust themselves.
Probably, too, some of the markets from which we shall
be supplied largely have been swept bare, and will have the
wants of the population depending upon them to supply in
the first in tance. But the impulse to increased produc-
tion has been given throughout the world ; its success has
been blessed by a bountiful Providence ' • and decreased
prices throughout the world must follow as the sure
result.
We are told, indeed, that America in particular will
hold back her supplies, and that she can hold them back
from us; that her farmers will not ship at present rates ;
and the fact is triumphantly pointed to that grain was
selling at the time of the sailing of the last Mail at rates
which could not be covered here. Till when, we ask, can
America thus hold back her supplies ? What can she do
with the vast stocks which, before long, will 411 her gra-
naries and her shipping ports to overflowing ? She can-
not consume it. Her farmers cannot cease to till their
fields. And what is still more conclusive, her money
market is becoming tight, and the exchanges are rapidly
setting against her. To Europe, then, her supplies must
come; and when they do come, she will find the European
agriculturist not only unable to take a quarter of grain
from her, hut disposed to get before her in the struggle to
realize. We repeat, this may not take place at once—not
in a month, or, possibly, not in three months—but it must
and will take place, nevertheless.