The Liverpool Standard and General Commercial Advertiser.
Liverpool, Merseyside, England, 1849-10-30 00:00:00

THE COTTON TRADE.

We think such of our readers as have perused the
different articles on the cotton trade which have appeared
in the STANDARD from time to time during the last six
months, will give us credit for having evinced a little fore-
sight. and that they will admit that our remarks have
been fully borne out by what has transpired the last few
weeks. We advanced that the consumption of cotton wss
overtaking the supply ; that from a variety of causes the
trade of this country was sound and healthy; that prices,
as a natural consequence, must advance materially, and that
the prospects of the coming crop in America are that it will
be both a short and a late one. With regard to the consump-
tion, what is the fact ? The enormous crop of 1848-9
in America, the largest ever grown, estimated at 2,700,000
bales, has not only been consumed, but the stock of cotton
in this port is 100,000 bales less than it was this time last
year, and considerably reduced in the States. Strange to
say—but it is nevertheless a startling fact, well worthy
the calm consideration of spinners and others—the stock
of American cotton in this port is reduced to 280,000
bales, half of which is held by half-a-dozen firms. Were
we not justified in stating that the position of our manu-
facturers was healthy, and that in having to pay higher
prices for cotton they would be able to obtain a relative
advance for their yarns and manufactures ? Have not the
accounts from Germany and the Continent generally,
from India, South America, and the United States, been
everything which could be desired ? And have not ex-
porters shewn a willingness to operate, even on the terms
demanded by spinners? Have not prices of raw cotton
advanced considerably during the last few months, on an
average of descriptions three-halfpence per lb., and have
not spinners, from their tardiness in purchasing to the
extent of their wants, been forced to pay the whole of this
advance in the last three or four weeks, while by pursuing
a more " liberal" or "free-trade" mode of action, void
of combination, they might have saved themselves much ?
It must now be evident to all reasonable persons that the
crop in America is late, and that the out-turn will be
below an average, certainly not over 24 million bales, but
' more probably 2 million. For our argument we will take
the large estimate, and then analyse what our supply is
likely to be :
America, in all probability, willrequire 700,000 bales.
France and the continent.. 750.000
Leaving for this country BOO,OOO
Now we ask this question, will 800,000 bales be ample far
our wants ? Last year (that is for the season just closed)
we received in this country, of the American crop,
1,520,000 bales ; so that there is every prospect we shall
not receive more than half of our former supply. But
further, the stock of American cotton in this port on the
31st December next will, in all probability, not exceed
1 150,000 bales against 374,000 bales, the average of the last

six years. The disastrous news, relative to the cotton
crop in China, is confirmed by the last advices, and prices
had risen considerably. This circumstance, as we have
before stated, will direct a portion of the cotton at Bom-
bay to that quarter, which otherwise would have found its
way to this country. The steamer which left this on the
4th of this month, will already have informed our Ame-
rican friends of the advance of the first halfpenny per lb.
in the week, and when they hear of the further rise in
price and excitement in this market, doubtless it must
have a corresponding influence there ; and what, let us
ask, may be the effect upon this market when we receive
the advices by the steamer which will leave America on
the Ist of the coming month ? We should be sorry to see
prices advance either too high or too rapidly ; but, with
the small stock of cotton in this country, the precarious-
ness of either an early or an ample supply, our trade con-
tinuing good, an easy money market, and cheap food, the
man would be bold indeed who should prophecy that cot-
ton will not be dearer. Supply and demand, however,
will adjust the question.

P.S.—The American steamer, Canada, arrived on
Sunday evening. The weather continued fine, but in the
north they had experienced a sharp frost. Prices had
further advanced, and the estimete of the crop remained
the same, from 1,800 to 2,200,000 bales. The receipts
were only one-half of the previous year, and the ship-
ments 5,000 bales for the month, and 1,450 for the week.