The Liverpool Standard and General Commercial Advertiser.
Liverpool, Merseyside, England, 1841-01-01 00:00:00

THE COTTON TRADE.

We have great pleasure in laying before our readers
the following copy of the Cotton Brokers' General
Circular for the close of the year 1840 :
There has seldom been a period during which the move-
ments of the cotton-trade have been so much iu unison with
general expectation as the year just terminated. A state of
depression so intense and wide-spreading as to be mistaken
by some for the first symptoms of the decline and fall of this
branch of national industry, had been succeeded by a slow,
but progressive amendment, and for several weeks before the
commencement of the new year, almost every department of
the ootton manufacture had resumed its wonted activity. The
stocks in the ports and the interior, if not very heavy, were
still ample in the face a coming crop, which, according to all
reports from the United States, gave promise of being most
abundant; prices were moderate, compared with what they
had been, and money, though not wanting for all the legiti-
mate purposes of business, was neither then, nor likely to be,
so cheap as to invite extravagant speculation, or to provoke
excessive production.
Such being the posture of affairs in the month of December,
1839, it required no gift of prophecy to predict that the ap-
proaching year would be one of great plenty, low prices,
large consumption, and small profits. If these results were
pretty accurately foreseen, so have the incidents of the year
been few and uninteresting. The commercial operations in
cotton have in fact been permitted to flow in their natural
channel. The functions of the private trader have ceased to
be invaded and usurped by the American banks, and the in-
tercourse between the two countries being freed from this
pernicious interference, prices on both sides of the water have
found their proper level, to the manifest advantage and secu-
rity of planter, shipper, importer, and consumer.

But the great event of the year is the marvellous increase
in the growth of cotton in the United States. In order to
exhibit this important fact in',lts true magnitude and propor-
tions, it is necessary to take a retrospective glance at the
question of crops for several years past. Beginning, then,
with the year 1830, it will be seen that the crop of
1830-31 was 1,038,848 bales. Increase 64 per cent
1831-32 „ 987,477 ~ Decrease • 5
1832-33 „ 1,070,438 „ Increase 8}
1833-34 „ 1,205,394 „
1834-35 „ 1,254,328 „
1835-36 „ 1,360,725 „
1836-37 „ 1,422,930 „
1837-38 „ 1,801,497 „ 26}
1838-39 „ 1,360,532 „ Decrease 241
1839-40 „ 2,177,835 ~ Increase 60
In examining this st dement, the eye will at once rest upon
the sudden and extraordinary increase in the crop of 1837-38,
and again, with an interval of an year only, in that of 1839-40,
which contrasts strongly with the easy and pretty equal stages
by which the production had been advancing for the seven
preceding years. Various causes, or a combination of them,
may be -assigned for these remarkable results :-:—an improved
mode of culture, an extension of the cultivation, not only in
the old districts, but into latitudes less exposed to frosts and
to variable seasons, and chiefly (especially with reference to
the last crop) the coincidence of a most favourable summer,
with an unprecedentedly open winter. But the fact itself,
however brought about, is full of interest to the cotton trade,
as it.is destined probably to work important changes, and at
no very distant period

ii," If f f

The new ear had scarcely commenced before the appre-
hensions of an overwhelming import were manifested in a
desire to realize existing prices, and by the last week in
January fair qualities of American had fallen id per lb. No
change beyond an occasional fluctuation of kd per lb occurred
until the beginning of June, when prices experienced a fur-
ther reduction of id per ib, making the decline Id per lb
since the first week of the year. This was the lowest point
of the market ; and it is a circumstance worthy of notice,
that with an import almost unexampled in amount, with an
average stock of 470,000 bales and with money never cheap,
and at times exorbitantly dear, fair Uplands should not have
varied more than kd to id per lb for the six months between
June and November. Steady rather than extensive buying
was the characteristic of the market during this period. The
trade as a body—some from not seeing any adequate induce.
ment to hold stock, and not a few from a necessity imposed
upon them by the state of commercial credit—took little more
than they required for their immediate wants. The business
on speculation, though crippled from the latter cause, was by
no means inconsiderable ; but though spread pretty equally
throughout the year, it did not assume a very decided cha-
racter till towards the middle of August, when the fate of the
harvest was supposed to be no longer doubtful. The market,
however, after a week or two relapsed into its former apathy,
and what with the stringent measures of the Bank for cur-
tailing discounts, and the threatening aspect of political af-
fairs, it was as low perhaps in point of feeling in the latter
end of October and the, beginning of November as at any
period of that year.
From that time there has been a growing impression that
prices had seen their lowest, and the improvement which had
been gradually taking place in the manufacturing business
seemed to point to the probability and reasonableness of some
advance. Coming upon a market thus predisposed, it was to
be expected that any accounts in the slightest degree unfa-
vourable to the prospect of the crop would be eagerly pressed
into the service. The reports accordingly received a fort-
night ago of the frosts in some districts, and unpropitious
weather in others, by which the picking had been prema-
turely suspended, have not been without their effect ; and
though the injury is not pretended to be to an extent to awa-
ken any serious apprehensions for the safety of the crop, yet
coupled with other advices of a similar tendency, they go
far to negative the possibility of what the holders had the
most reason to dread—the recurrence of another crop such
as that of last year. Be this as it may, the market has since
worn a more cheerful aspect, and both speculators and the
trade have purchased with more avidity than for months past,
at a gradual advance of about id per lb since the movement
began in the second week in December, thus placing the
vices of American cotton on the last day of the year within
id per lb for the middling, and Id per lb for the better qual-
ities, of what they were on the first. Surats, which from the
large quantity imported have played a more important 'part
than ususal, have partaken of the same fluctuations as Ame-
rican, and bear the same relative price at the close as at the
commencement of the year.

For all descriptions of long-stapled cotton this has been a
year of much disappointment. Fair Sea Islands, which
opened at 22d per lb, before the end of January fell to 16d
per lb, and by the middle of the following month to 134 d per
lb ; in a few weeks they rallied again to 144 d per lb, and vi-
brated between that price and 151 d per lb for the remainder
of the year. Egyptians in the first two months experienced
a reduction of 2d peribcof-which they recorbredld in the
course of the two next ; and during the last three months
they have gained another id per lb. Brazils continued at a
decline of Id per lb for several months, and finally settled
down in October at the lowest point, from which they have
never moved, Pernatns and Bahias being ld per lb and Ma-
ranhams 1-id per lb below what they were at the beginning of
the year. From first to last, the demand for these descrip-
tions has been extremely languid, owing to the limited wants
of the spinners of the finer numbers of yarn. The stocks on
hand are consequently disproportioned to the consumption,
though the supply has been rather less than more than it was
the previous year.

Fi)r the details of Stocks and Imports, reference is re-
quested to the annexed Tables. The import from the United
States into the kingdom exceeds that of last year by
420,723 bales ; that of Surats is also larger by 83,819 bales,
owing partly to an abundant crop, and partly to the inter-
ruption of the intercourse between India and China, which
has been the means of diverting a portion of the Cotton des-
tined for the latter to this country. The growth of the Bra-
zils appears to be on the decline. the supplies thence having
been diminishing for some years. From Egypt the import
has been the same within three or four thousand bales in ex-
cess of last year's. The stock of all kinds in the ports
amounts to 464,100 bales, being an increase upon the stocks
held at the corresponding period of last year of 198,610
bales. The deliveries to the trade, according to the usual
mode of ascertaining them, have been from Liverpool, Lon-
don and Glasgow 1,285,598 bales, or at the rate of 24,721
bales per week, which quantity may be taken to represent
also the consumption, supposing the stocks in the interior to
be the same as at this time last year. This latter is a point
always difficult of proof; but from the known inability of
many of the spinners to hold stock, and from general in-
quiries, this may be assumed in the affirmative ; but ad-
mitting that it is some 30,000 bales more, according to the
opinion of many, the difference, in dealing with such large
quantities, cannot materially affect the result. This increase
in the consumption of 3015 bales per. week, or 14 per cent.
upon last year's, is the more remarkable as having been ac-
complished without the addition, in any corresponding de-
gree, of new mills or new machinery. The narrow margin
left for profit has led to the introduction of more expeditious
processes, whilst the cheapness of the raw material has
offered every encouragement for the production of a more
substantial fabric. The demand indeed has been chiefly for
low numbers of yarn and for heavy goods, which for the last
few months at least have found a ready market at home and
abroad. The stocks of goods arc believed to be more consi-
derable than those of yarn, the export of the latter having
been, according to " Burn's Commercial Glance," greater
by about 33 per cent. during the first nine months this year
than for the corresponding period last. In goods the ex-
port, as given by the same publication, has been less, but
owing to the variety in the denominations the comparison in
point of weight cannot so readily be made.
With respect to the future, upon which some opinion on
this annual occasion is expected, the issue of the last crop
has involved the subject in greater difficulty than usual. So
long as the growth of cotton in America proceeded with the
steady march which characterised it for several years prior to
1837, a period during which the rate of increase was seldom
less than 4 per cent. or more than 8 per, cent. per annum,
the supply might be regarded, if not as a fixed quantity, at
least as vibrating between such narrow limits as rendered it
not likely, singly considered, to effect any great or perma-
nent revolution in the standard of prices. That what has
been the experience of the last three years? The first gave
a crop exceeding by no less than 26i per cent. that of the
year before, which, be it observed, was larger by 5 per cent.
than any former one ; the second, though visited by a long
drought, which materially injured the plant, produced a full
average of the four previous years, omitting the large crop
of the preceding year ; and the third yielded an increase of
21 per cent. not upon the failing crop which it followed, but
upon that of the, year but one before, which, it must be re-
membered, was larger by 261 per cent. than any upon record
up to that time, thus showing an increase in the last crop
of 53 per cent. upon that of the year 1836-37. From
whatever cause arising, (and some, at least, of those men-
tioned in a former part as the most probable ones will
not be considered to be purely accidental), these results

cannot but tend to throw an uncertainty around all calcula-

tions founded on supply, and to unsettle the received notions
as to what are high or low prices ; for, although it be true
that the consumption has been' able to cope with an import
greater, into the kin4dom, than last year's by 484,000 bales,
without either an extraordinary depression of price or an
inconvenient accumulation of stock, it must not be forgotten
that the crop now under discussion came upon the heels of
one as deficient as the other was superabundant. To put a
case more nearly parallel with the circumstances of the cur-
rent year, it should be, asked—what would have been the
state of things at the present moment but for the casualty
which befel the crop of 1837-8? It is difficult to resist the
belief that the stocks on hand would have been larger, and
the prices lower; and if the forthcoming crop is not to fall
short of 1,800,000 bales, (which is admitted, in spite of all
untoward events), the conclusion would seem to be as inevi-

table, that prices cannot on the average much exceed, if at
all, those of this year. Some allowance must, no doubt,
be made for a reasonable increase in the wants of all the

cotton-consuming countries ; but on the other hand, let it be
kept steadily in view, that the first condition of that
increase is a low price. Attempts to reduce to figures quan-
tities so liable to disturbing causes are usually attended with
but little success ; the following statement however is sub-
mitted as a =ere approximation, to be taken for what it is
worth. On the last occasion of a crop of 1,800,000 bales in
1838, this country received 1,123,000 bales, The Continent,

as well as America herself, will require a lager supply than
at the period alluded to, but both have considerably antici-
pated these additional wants by the larger portion they have
either retained or imported of the late crop. The imports,
indeed, of American cotton into the different ports of the
Continent have been more than double what they were last
year, viz. 629,000 bales against 370,000 bales.

_
Great Britain may then fairly claim 1,050,000 bales
To this add the import from all Other
quarters, estimated to be the same
as this year; say
And the stock now on hand in' Liver-
pool, London and Glasgow

364,000

464,100

1,878,100
Deducting what may be taken for ex-
portation 120,000
Gives a total for the service of the year 1,758,100

Now, allowing a weekly delivery of 25,500 bales, which is
surely ample, the stock, on these data, this time next yearwill
be 432,100 bales ; a quantity large enough to allay all fears of
any thing bordering on a deficiency, and to ensure moderate
prices. The precise limits of the latter will be determined
by public opinion, acted upon as it will be, not always ac-
cording to sound reason, by the passing events of the day,—
by the prospects of peace or war,—by the price of food,—by
the scarcity or abundance of money real or artificial,—and by
many other considerations, often swelled on the impulse of
the moment into undue importance.
Taking an enlarged or as it may be termed a national view
of the subject, the greatest calamity that could befal the
cotton trade would be a return to high prices. If it is to
maintain its supremacy, if it is to continue not only to extend
the occupation of territory exclusively its own, but to en-
croach upon that of the kindred staples of silk, flax, and
wool, it must rest on the broad and secure base of large
stocks and low prices of the raw material ; else the skill, the
enterprise and the industry of our manufacturers will be de-
frauded of their just reward, and their labour will be in vain.

IMPORTS, EXPORTS, AND STOCKS OF COTTON

The annual statement of the imports, exports, and
stock of cotton wool for the port of Liverpool, has just
been published. From this document we deduce the
following particulars :

IMPORT OF COTTON WOOL INTO LIVERPOOL IN THE
YEAR 1840, AS COMPARED WITH THE YEARS 1838 AND
1839.

Descriptions

Atlantic States

455484

342442

483254

New Orleans and Mobile 615818 440533 681859
Pernambuco and Ceara
Bahia and Maceio .
Maranham 34468 30420 19106
Egyptian

Demerara and Berbice
Barbadoes
West India

1320 1221 409
294 306 205
11908 2634 1382

Laguira, Peru, and Carthagena 14793 21511 18283
Surat
Bengal 3321 1638
I Smyrna
ft

Totals

1328604 1016510 1414726

The following is a statement of the total amount of im-
ports into the port of Liverpool during each month in
the years 1838, 1839, and 1840 respectively :

January
February
March
April
May
June - 177353 239318 185724
July
August
September
October 48171 29126 62814
November 14109 27717 54625
December 37418 41918 46420

Totals