The Liverpool Standard and General Commercial Advertiser.
Liverpool, Merseyside, England, 1847-09-21 00:00:00

THE LIVERPOOL STANDARD.

THE ECONOMIST AND THE SUPPLY OF

FOOD.

It is a proper inquiry which the Economist, and other
organs, who have, during the past year, been engaged in
keeping up the high prices of grain, have proposed for
consideration at this crisis :—Are the present prices of
food justified by the circumstances and prospects of the
country ? Entertaining, as we do, different views from
those put forth by these journalists, and deeply im-
pressed, by the deplorable failures which have recently
taken place amongst commercial men, with a sense of the
importance of eliciting the real truth upon the question,
we purpose devoting a column to an examination of some
statistics bearing upon the subject, and the conclusions
derived from them in an article which appeared in the
Economist last week.
It will be remembered, by those who are in the habit of
perusing that able journal, that, in its publication in June
last, when the average price of wheat was above 995. per
quarter, the Economist placed before the public his views
with respect to the probable future supply of food, as
bearing upon the question of the prices which might be
expected to rule. The conclusion drawn was in favour of
continued high prices, and was arrived at from the follow-
ing considerations, as stated by himself:—

" First.—The prospect of the potato crop.
"Second.—The prospects of the grain crops.
"Third:—The stocks existing in farmers' hands.
" Fourth.—The probable extent of foreign supplies.
" Fifth.—The extent of foreign grain held in stock."
With respect. to the potatoe crop, his opinion was that
in England only one-third, in Scotland one-fifth, and in
Ireland one-third the breadth of land usually in potato
cultivation was devoted to the growth of that vegetable,
the remaining two-thirds being either sown with other
descriptions of food or uncultivated. Putting aside the
prospects of rot, end assuming that one acre of potatoes
produces food equal to three acres sown with wheat, he
calculated upon a deficiency to arise from this source.
The prospects of the Grain crops at that time were bad
but the fine weather with which we have since been visited
has overthrown this portion of his calculations. The
wheat crop he considers a full one, not, however, differing
much from that of last year ; whilst oats and barley are
much better than his anticipations.
The third consideration was the limited •quantity of
grain held 'in the farmers' hands ; and his views in this
particular, 'he considered, had then been confirmed by
the decreased quantity delivered in the month immedi-
ately preceding June in the 290 towns from which the
averagesare taken, as compared with the deliveries in the
previous year, and which lie considers have been further
substantiated by the further decrease which has taken
place up to the present period. The correctness of this
mode of proof may well be doubted- Our own experience,
indeed, leads to the conclusion, that growers having once
overstocked their market, the deliveries at receding prices
would depend more than anything else upon their power
to hold ; and farmers, generally, who mustundoubtedly
have procured high prices for a portion of their stocks,
would be in a favourable position to stand their ground in
thehope of a reaction. Our contemporary contends
from those statistics, that "as regards the opinions
formed in June, with respect to all the domestic questions
affecting the future prospect of our supplies of food,
events have so far shown them to be nearly as true as
possible!' In addition to what we have above, as to the
mode in which the stocks in farmers' hands are arrived at,
we must-demur to our contemporary's statement as to the
extent to which potato cultivation has been given up; and
moreover, we must remind him of his omission of all
consideration of the other esculents (turnips, carrots,
wurzels, and other feeding roots,) by 'which the potato
has been superseded. With respect to thefourth element
of continued high prices—the short supplies of grain to
'..be expected from foreign countries—the Economist con-
-t.fesses himself to have been deceived, the stocks left in
'America having proved to be greater '.and having come
forward faster than he anticipated. Other countries too,
tempted by high prices, have contributed largely to our
supply. Our contemporary contends, .however, that our
prospects for the coming year are not materially bright-
ened by these facts, which he attempts to:prove by a com-
parison of the stocks with which.we.bewe to commence
the consumption of the new crops this year with those
which we had on hand at the corresponding period of last
year.

On the sth of June, this year, we had in bond,
of grain of all sorts, 1,855,439 quarters. We imported
up to sth September 1,249,541 quarters; making a total
supply during the three months, of .30.04,000 quarters.
On the sth of June we had in bond, of flour and meal,
1,299,378 cwt. ; we imported up to September sth,
1,310,534 cwt., making a total supply of 2,609,912 cwt.
Reducing the stock of flour and meal in.qrs. of grain, the
total quantity available for consumption, from June sth
to September sth, was—
Grain of all kinds . . 3,104,000 qrs.
Flour and meal equivalent in grain to 745,689 „

Total 3,849,689 qrs.

In the present year our contemporary says, " the imports
from the sth June to the sth of September may be taken
as a fair indication of the entire, supplies, inasmuch as
up to the end of May, while the imports-were on a limited
scale, they were delivered direct to the consumer from the
ship, and no accumulations .took place in warehouse."
We must demur altogether to this .mode of putting the
question. It is not fair, in the .first plate to assume that
the imports up to the end of May went immediately into
consumption, merely because they did not go into bond,
and, consequently, there was no .:official record kept.
They went " immediately from the ship" it is true; but
whither ? To our free warehouses• in•the ports. Large
quantities also went direct into the country, not necessa-
rily into consumption, butt() be warehoused in the interior
markets until wanted. It is moreover a legitimate con-
clusion, that in June 1841, with. the, immediate prospect
of the release of bonded stocks by, the passing of the
.Reform Bill, little or no foreign duty-paid would be on
.hand; and millers and consumers consequently more
-bare than in June 1847, when the. imports had gone
direct into the market as they arrived. Taking, however,
our contemporary's own position, we .find the imports for
the three months, from sth June,to sth September 1847,
to have been—
Grain 3,772,354 qrs.
Flour equivalent in grain • • P• 558,163

Total grain from sth June to sth Sept. 4,331,517
Same period in 1846 3,849,689

Excess in 1847 • • ~qrs. 481,828
'Our contemporary argues from this as follows :
Thus showing that the supplies available'for the consump-
tion during the last three months have, notwithstanding their
extraordinary extent, been only 01,828 qrs. .more than in the
same period last year. Anal-when we take into account the
much zinaller amount of home-grown grain, which we have
already shown has been brought to market during that period
in the present year than in 1846—(which cannot be;less, accord-
ingto the Gazette returns, than 24000,000 rs),--it would fol-
low that a much larger portion of the supplies of the present
year has.!ready gone into consumption than had done so at
the samedate in 1846."

We submit, however, that fairer data than: the imports
of the, three months only in each year may .be taken ;
the argument as to the consumption of home-grown corn,
deduced . from the Gazette returns, we throw over board
altogether.
In the absence of any official data, from which to ar-
rive at the stock of foreign in hand, in June this,year' the
Economist refers to the imports of the wholnyear, which
were—

First five-months to June sth, Grain
of 211:kinds 3,286,702 Ars.
Last three months, June to Sept. sth
of allkimls 3,772,354 s,

cwts.
FirstEvemonths Flour, &c. 2,627,107
Last three ditto ditto 1,953,571

Total cwts. Flour, &c. 4,580,678
The equivalent in Grain being .. 1,308,765

Total as Grain in qrs. .. 8,367,821
Now, with the •facts before us, first that, during the
agitation for t;:e -Repeal of the Corn Laws, which was
going on in the first five months of 1846, a minimum
quantity of foreign grain was released for consumption ;
and secondly, that on the sth of January, 1817, there
would be a stock of foreign in warehouse, at the ports
and in the country., probably equal to the quantity so re-
leased from bond in the five months of 1846, we are
entitled to set the total imports of 1847 against the stock
in band on the sth June 1846, and the imports to sth
of September.
The account will then stand thus :
Total imports to Sept. sth, 1847 in qrs. 8,367,821
Stock of grain in bond 6th June,
1846, and imported to sth Sept.,
in quarters..
Flour and meal in and imported
same dates, in quarters grain.... 745,689
Total supply to sth Sept. 1846
Excess available for consumption in
Sept. 1847, over supply of pre-
vious year, in quarters 4,518,132
The only further statistical data furnished us by our
contemporary, bearing upon the question at issue—our
prospects in the coming year— consist of a return of the
imports from Sept. 1846 to the end of the year, which
amounted to a total quantity of 1,738,100 qrs. of grain.
He leaves us to form our own conclusion as to the proba-
bility of our receiving an equal quantity this year. This,
however, as depending upon the early setting in of the
winter and other accidental causes, is not a material ques-
tion to decide, and can only affect us temporarily.
We have given with as much fairness as we have been
able, the data from which the Economist arrives at his
conclusion that they do not justify what he terms " the
panic" which has so "reduced prices from their highest
point in June. Tire conceive that they are quite sufficient
to justify an anticipation of much lower prices in the year
which is before us, taking into consideration the changed
position of this country and of Europe generally, to-
gether with other correlative circumstances. In the first
instance, it will be seen that we have received, in the first
eight months of the present year, a supply of foreign
grain—the immense amount of 8,367,829 quarters—not-
withstanding the fact that the principal grain countries of
Europe were equally suffering with ourselves from the re-
sult of a deficient harvest and the partial failure of the
potato crop. We have re-exported largely to France and
other countries, and had Ireland almost entirely on our
hands to support Yet, by tile aid of a timely harvest,
instead of a late one, which was calculated upon, we have
been enabled to steer through our difficulties triumphantly,
and our Stock has been so, far ample for all our wants that
the price of wheat, widen, in the first week in June,
was 995. 10d. per quarter, reached 565. Bd. on the first of
the current month of September: If we could draw from
foreign countries last year the amount of 8,367,821 quar-
ters, what must be their surplus us the year which is before
us? In the first instance, we turn to the United States.
This year that country teems with abundance, and is said
to have nearly doubled her cultivation of bread.,stufr.i.

If, therefore, her means were ample, as they proved, last
year, when she had not only Great Britain, but Europe,
besieging her ports for grain, what must be her ability to
supply us this year, when the countries of Europe shall
have become exporting instead of importing countries.
We ourselves shared our supplies with those countries
last year. Now they are in a position to supply Great
Britain. Our Irish difficulty has, at the least, decreased,
if it has not yet been surmounted. Scotland may not
have more potatos this year than last, but she has a
greater quantity of other crops ; and she will not con-
sume so wastefully as last year, supplied as she then
was with our money, and thrown, as• she now is, more
upon her own resources. At home, in Great Bri-
tain, we have a full, and probably a much more than ave-
rage harvest, got in good condition and of excellent qua-
lity. There is every probability, too, and we lament it,
that our working population in the coming year will be
driven by the insufficiency of employment to limit their
consumption. Our green crops are abundant; and, al-
though we are deficient in our supply of potatoes, and
some of the crops may be failures, the deficiency will be
almost made up by the increased supply of other roots,
available for feeding purposes. Viewing all these circum-
stances, we feel assured that a period, not only of low
prices of food, but of glutted markets, is before us. We
may not experience this state of things immediately. It
takes some little time for prices to adjust themselves.
Probably, too, some of the markets from which we shall
be supplied largely have been swept bare, and will have the
wants of the population depending upon them to supply in
the first in tance. But the impulse to increased produc-
tion has been given throughout the world ; its success has
been blessed by a bountiful Providence ; and decreased
prices throughout the world must follow as the sure
result.
We are told, indeed, that America in particular will
hold back her supplies, and that site can hold them back
from us; that her farmers will not ship at present rates ;
and the fact is triumphantly pointed to that grain was
selling at the time of the sailing of the last Mail at rates
which could not be covered here. Till when, we ask, can
America thus hold back her supplies ? What can she do
with the vast stocks which, before long, will fill her gra-
naries and her shipping ports to overflowing ? She can-
not consume it. Her farmers cannot cease to till their
fields. And what is still more conclusive, her money
market is becoming tight, and the exchanges are rapidly
setting against her. To Europe, then, her supplies must
come; and when they do come, she will find the European
agriculturist not only unable to take a quarter of grain
from her, hut disposed to get before her in the struggle to
realize. We repeat, this may not take place at once—not
in a month, or, possibly, not in three months—but it must
and will take place, nevertheless.