The Sun.
London, England, 1868-10-05 00:00:00

-7-71 E COMING ELECTIONS.

( From the Anglo-American Times.)

The effect of the Republican victory in Maine
has been to concentrate the efforts of both parties
on Pennsylvania, 0:do, and Indiana, where the
elections will take place on the 13th instant. On
that day the campaign may be decided, for, if
unanimous, neither party could recover the defeat.
Pennsylvania gives 26 electoral votes, Ohio 21, In-
diana 13, making a total of 60 ; and as these States
vote on the 13th, so, in all probability, they will vote
for President in November. Considering, then, the
tremendous issues tc be decided, it is worth while
very carefully and impartially to examine the posi-
tion. In 1866 the entire vote cast by Pennsylvania
for Governor was 597,370,whenJ011N W. GEARY, the
Republican candidate, was elected by a majority of
17,178. Last year the Democrats carried GEORGE
SHARS WOOD, as Judge of the Supreme Court, by a
majority of 922 votes, in a total of 534,570. Of
the 61,800 votes less than in the preceding year, the
Republicans lost 40,450, and the Democrats 22,350.
At the time there was a strong reaction, but results
have since proved that the feeling was directed more
against the " War Horse " section than in favour of
the Conservatives. Many of the moderate Republi-
cans refrained from voting, and the consequence wa
a general decrease in the total throughout thi
Union. Upwards of 160,000 Republicans absented
themselves from the polls, and it was calculated that
the Democrats were only strengthened by Repub-
lican desertions to the extent of 50,000. In no
State, except, perhaps, in New York, did the feel-
ing inimical to the ruling party run more strongly
than in Pennsylvania ; and we may remark that
the office upon which this test was tried was not of
sufficient importance to produce of itself an excit-
ing contest. HENRY WILLIAMS, the Republican
candidate, was everywhere acknowledged to be
less fitted as a lawyer for the promotion
than Judge SII&RSWOOD ; and it was said at
the time that the Republicans considered they
could secure the election of any one they might
poujnate without further reference to his qualifica-
tions than
his value as a party man. They profess
great confidences
in the result in Pennsylvania on
the 13th, and the figLfr
their defeat in Maine,
has been intensified by:De-
mocratic efforts to neutrat.t.:l
knowing that if the Keystone Sti;.fe decides against
them, unless they can carry Ohio, tu.:7 need not
continue the contest. Not only is Penns.,il
• -

the most important State, not only is the Couservt'
tive chance there better than in Ohio or Indiana,
but it has become a proveib to say that as Penn-
sylvania decides, so decides the Union. We
do not attempt to predi-lt, bat we believe
that a careful examination would incline au un-
biassed person to the opinion that the Republi-
cans will be successful, though perhaps but by a
small majority. It is not, however, with them as
with the Democrats in Pennsylvania--a death
struggle—for they can lose that State and still
carry their candidate for the Presidency.
The result of the Ohio election in 1866 was to
give WILLIAM 11. SMITH, the Republican candidate,
for Secretary of State 256,302 votes, against 213,606
for the Democratic candidate BENJAMIN F.LEFEVIIE,
in a total of 469,908. Last year General
ALLEN G. THURMAN, the Democratic candidate for
Governor, was defeated by the, Republican candi-
date, General RUTHERFORD B. HAYES, in a very
close contest, the majority being but little- over
2,500. General HAYES probably owed his election
to his high record and personal popularity, for the
State showed a clear Democratic tendency, electing
a majority of Democrats to the Legislature, and
defeating the Negro Suffrage Amendment by 38,353
votes, the side issue that told so forcibly against
the Republicans. Mr. PENDLETON, who is strong
in Ohio, earnestly devotes himself to the Democratic
interest. It is at best a doubtful State, as shown
last year when the Democrats carried nine Con-
gress districts, four of them by majorities under
500, five under 1,000,- and the others by majorities
ranging from 2,000 to 6,000. The nomination of
VALLANDIGIIAM for Congress is thought by many
to have been a very ill-advised step on the part of
the Conservatives, indicating an intention of rais-
ing issues which their best friends earnestly hoped
had been settled for ever and consigned to oblivion.
Freed from the side issue, and with the simple
question before the electors whether the Democrats
or the Republicans are to rule, the best opinions
favour the success of the latter.

Indiana is not in the same category as the two

other great States, its Republican tendencies being
outspoken and strong ; nor does it carry the same
weight. In 1866 a Secretary of State, Treasurer,,
pAaubdliicn
toriAsttrtaocrtnioeyn-. Attorney-General,
ile with a full , awl Superintendent of
delega-
tion of Congressmen and members of the Legisla-
ture. '1 he Republicans were successful in electing
N. TRUSLER Secretary of State by 169,601 over
M. D. RIANSON, the Democratic candidate, who
polled 155,390, giving a majority of 14,211 in a
total vote of 325,000. This was the largest ever

cast, being 41,715 more than that given for Gover-
nor in 1864, and only 15,240 less than the enume-
meration of white male voters. All the Republi-
can candidates were elected, and the Legislature,
which, by the way, meets biennially in the odd
years, stood in the Senate—Republicans, 30, De-
mocrats, 20 ; in the Representatives—Republicans,
This heavy vote resulted from
t raised on the issues of the
policy by President JOHNSON, who
t6hle;
great
eat Democrats,
excitement
xct
e m39e .n
Reconstruction
had himself but a month before traversed the State
on his celebrated tour. It was at Indianapolis, on
the night of September 10, 1866, that he made
the speech most generally condemned, which
was followed by a riot. These were the elections
that really tested the political feeling in Indiana, for
in the next year, when other States were falling
away from the Republican party, Indiana increased
its majority to 20,000, carrying 9 out of the 11
Congressional Districts, being a Republican gain of
1 even on their great victory of the •previous year.
This State is conceded to the Republicans even by
the Democrats, and, as COLFAX is one of its citizens,
it is not likely to turn round now against the party
it has hitherto supported.

lowa in 1866 polled 147,124 votes, of which
Wright, the Republican candidate for Secretary of
State, got 91,227 against 55,815 for the Democrat,
Van Anauda. This was the heaviest vote ever
cast in the State, exceeding by 22,257 that for
Governor in the previous year, and by 10,533 that
for President in 1864. On the whole ticket the
majority was maintained by the Republicans in
1867, and it-is not thought that there has been any
change whatever in the feeling of the State since.
The electoral vote of lowa being only 8, it is of
considerably leas importance than that of Indiana,
and as the State is considered by the Republicans
to be seettre, it does not excite much interest.
Even the Round Table in its estimate, made some
time ago, gave lowa to the Republicans, while
claiming Indiana and Pennsylvania for the Demo-
crats. Strange to say it classed Ohio as Repub-
lican, a State we believe to be far more doubtful
than Indiana.

To listen to Republican and Democratic orators
and writers, people would imagine there was no
doubt as to the side on which these States would
vote. But on the 14th instant there will probably
be extravagant demonstrations of joy on the one side
or the other, showing that they had gained some-
thing till then uncertain. At the same time there
,is a feeling abroad in the North which appears
daily to gather force, that Democratic success would
neutralize the Union victory, and the Republican
papers and stump speakers eagerly foster this notion
by speaking of themselves as the "Unionists," and
their enemies as "rebels." That word, now again
so generally used, thrills on the Northern heart
and stirs up the fire left smouldering by the war.
It reeals the days of loss and sacrifice when men
had to throw aside their employments to shoulder
their muskets and to face death by bullet, disease
and fatigue, or, see their country shivered into
fragments. This is a cunning device—for nothing
could more effectually secure the party purpose,
and they have been effectually aided in it by the
Southern leaders. It is just possible that through
it an enthuSiastic Republican vote may be polled,
giving a majority, no one thought, a month ago, was
by any chance on the cards..