The Sun.
London, England, 1867-11-02 00:00:00

POLI7ICA.L PROSPECTS.

(From the Nation.)
The losses which the Republican party has sustained
in every election that has occurred during this year,
amounting to positive defeats in Connecticut, California,
and Pennsylvania, and a loss equivalent to a defeat in
Ohio, make it necessary to survey the whole field, and
consider dispassionately what political course the country
is likely to take, what probability there is of the restora-
tion of the Democrats to power, and what effect such an
event may have upon the country.
The actual losses of the Republicans are a governor in
each of the States of Connecticut and California, seven
members of the House of Representatives, and two United
States Senators. The diminution of the Republican ma-

jority in the States which have thus far voted, as compared
with last year, is in round numbers 107,000, viz.: 16,000
in Maine, 1,500 in New Hampshire, 2,700 in Vermont,
1,000 in Rhode Island, 1,500 in Connecticut, 19,000 in

'ennsylvania, 40,000 in Ohio, 10,000 in lowa, and 15,000

in California. There is every reason to suppose that the
States which hold elections in November will increase this
figure to 200,000, or about one-half of the Republican
majority in the Northern States.
The result of the elections in New York may easily bo

foreseen. The Democratic majorities in New York and
Brooklyn will bo reduced nearly 10,000 by the light vote,
but the Republican majorities in the interior (amounting
last year to 70,000) will be reduced by 30,000 or 40,000. in
each of the counties of Albany, Rensselaer, and St. Law-
rence there will be a Republican loss of some 2,000 votes,
in each of a dozen strong Republican counties, such as
Allegany, Cayuga, Chautauqua, Onondaga, (Ix., there will
be a loss of 1,000 votes or more, and a smaller loss in almost
every other county. This leaves the Democratic ticket a
majority in the State of from 7,000 to 15,000, which, unless
some unexpected change occurs before the election, it is
tolerably certain to have.

These unfavourable results, however, are by no means
conclusive indications of the prospect for 1868. The
Democrats have made no actual gain in votes, except in
Connecticut. Their victories have been won in conse-
quence of the apathy or temporary disgust of Republicans.
Of course it is possible for the Republican party to act so

unwisely as to drive into the opposite ranks those who have
this year simply stayed at home. But unless great follies
are committed, Now York and Indiana are the only large
States which can be doubtful in 1868, and the Republican
candidate is sure to carry 150 of the 247 electoral votes now
recognised. If the South is reconstructed on the Congres-
__

sional plan (and its vote upon any other basis will not be
counted), the Republican majority will be increased. Sup-
posing, however, that by the &Acct.:on of Pennsylvania
and Illinois, as well as New York and Indiana, a Demo-
cratic President should bo elected, with a House of Repro-
sentaves in sympathy with him, the Republicans have 34
of the 54 Senators until 1871 beyond doubt, with a moral
certainty of retaining 30 until 1873, and a certainty that
may fairly be called absolute of retaining 27 Senators until
that time.

Sixteen Republican Senators hold over until 1873,
thirteen until 1871, and of those who retire in 1869
six are from the States of Maine, Massachusetts, Mi-
chigan, Minnesota, Rhode Island, and Vermont, which no
one can pretend to consider doubtful, and one from Ten-
nessee, who will be chosen by the present Legislature
within a few days. Of the Senators retiring in 1871
seven are from lowa, Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts,
Michigan, Minnesota (a Johnson man), and Rhode Island,
which are not doubtful States, besides two from Now
Hampshire and Tennesse. Our figures aro therefore in-
side the bounds of reasonable certainty. If the Southern
States are restored, it will be with at least ten Republican
Senators (from Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi,
and South Carolina) out of the twenty to which they will
be entitled, and probably more.
Thus it appears certain that the policy of Congress
cannot be reversed for six years to come, except by a
change of views within the lines of the Republican party
or by some act of revolutionary violence. Against the
latter danger we are protected for at least another year by
the fortunate circumstance that the governors of all
the great central States, having at their command all the
available militia force of the country, are thoroughly
in sympathy with Congress, and would bring a power-
ful and well-organised body of troops to its aid iu case of
any outbreak. This consideration has made the result in
Ohio, where alone a governor was elected this month, ono
of great importance. If the Democratic candidate had
been elected there, Mr. Johnson might have felt much
more disposed to try issues with Congress than he will
feel now.

The moral effect of defeat this fall is, upon the whole,
likely to be healthy to the Republican party. Its leaders
will surely see the necessity of greater discretion, of using
wiser means to attain the desired end, of abandoning
schemes of local and private advantage, and of concentrat-
ing all the power of the party upon the main issues. The
last point has become plain to thorn, and it is clear that
some minor issues are to be abandoned. Whether Penn-
sylvanians can reconcile themselves to the obvious deter-
mination of the West to resist any further increase
of the tariff, and whether the Wost can refrain
from tampering with the currency to the ruin of
the East, are questions yet undetermined. A wise for-
bearance upon all questions unconnected with reconstruc-
tion, and a vigorous enforcement of the policy of recon-
struction already inaugurated, will yet give the Republi-
cans a victory in 1868.

If, as we hear in the general wish of the party in the
West, and of a largo portion of it in the East, Mr. Pendle-
ton is to be the Demccratic candidate in 1868, the national
credit will be at stake in the contest, oven more than the
question of reconstruction. Mr. Pendleton's financial
theories aro undoubtedly popular within his own party,
and may please some thoughtless Republicans in the West,
whore comparatively little of the national debt is hold.
The managers of the late Democratic Convention in this
State had great difficulty in preventing it from committing
itself to the support of Mr. Pendleton's views, which
they wore shrewd enough to know would be fatal to
the party in this State, where so vast an amount is
invested in national securities. Mr. Huffman deserves
great credit for his emphatic assertion of the duty
of good faith on the part of the nation ; and we should
be glad to hope that tho counsels of such mon would
prevail in the party at large. But the nomination of Mr.
Pendleton would be an act of open war upon the national

The completion of reconstruction will remove one of the
embarrassments of the Republican party, though it may
also deprive it of a popular issue. The work, when accom-
plished, cannot be easily undone, whereas the process
keeps the country in a. disturbed state. The efforts of Mr.
Johnson to hinder its completion do not help his party;
but so long as its success remains doubtful there will be
a good deal of natural vacillation in the minds of well-
meaning men. Success is the final test of all such expe-
riments in government ; and until its success has been
demonstrated many supporters of the Congressional po-
licy will hesitate at each now step that may be required.
It seems probable that the recent elections will make
Southern Republicans at once more prompt and more
moderate than they might otherwise have been. They
will see the necessity of maintaining harmony among
themselves, and of finishing the work of restoration with-
out delay. The coloured voters will not reject the aid
of white Southerners when offered in good faith; and
by 1868 the Republican party may be assured of a real
and lasting majority in several of the Southern States.
Unlimited success in the Northern elections might easily
mislead our Southalu allies into a ruinous inte!erance,
of which there have already been some indications. We
believe that the late seemingly untoward events may thus
be fruitful of good to the whole country.