The Sun.
London, England, 1856-08-08 00:00:00

LONDON, FRIDAY EVENING, AUGUST t, 1856.

BRITISH ASSOCIATION .FOR TILE AD-

VANCEME4T OF SCIENCE.

CHELTENHAM, AUG. 7.
The first general assembly of the members was held in
the Great Hall of Studies at Cheltenham College, at eight
(,'clock last evening, when about 8,10 persons were present.
The chair was taken by the Duke of Argyll, and among
those present were Dr. Daubeney, the President elect ;
Earl Ducie, Lord Wrottesley, Lord Stanley, Mr. E. Hol-
land, M.P., Mr. Hadfield, M.P., I►Lr. Tite, M.P., Sir R. J.
Murchison, Col. Sir H. C. Rawlinson, the Master of the
Mint, General Sir George Pollock, Professor Sedgwick,
air W. Snow Harris, Professor Phillips, &c. The Duchess
of Argyll, and a great number of ladies were also present.
The Duke of ARGYLL, on taking the chair, observed that
a very light and simple duty devolved upon him—that of
resigning his seat to one far better entitled to fill it. He
could say with sincerity that he.would cherish with feel-
ings of grateful pride the recollection of the honour which
the British Association had done him by electing him
their President at the Glasgow meeting. It would be pre-
sumptuous in him to say one word about the distinguished
gentleman who was to follow him in the presidential chair.
He would say,• however, that whpn the association was not
so high in the public favour as at present, and wheh its
members were ridiculed as peripatetic philosophers, Dr.
Daubeny was one of the men of name and mark in the
scientific world, who came forward to give it a helping
hand. The noble duke then resigned his seat to the new
president, who delivered his inaugural address.
This morning the business of the sections commenced at
11 o'clock, as follows :
SECTION A.—MATHEMATICAL AND PHYSICAL SCIENCE.
Rev. R. Walker, F.R.S., presided in this section, and
the following papers were read :
. ProfessorPoreell—on .'"--
Pisafeisser Stokes—Report on formation of catalogue of
philosophical memoirs.
Professor Hennessey—On Isothermal lines.
Wildman Whitehouse—On an instrument for determin,
ing the value of intermittent or alternating electric cur
rents for telegraphic purposes. •
J. Nasmyth—On the form of lightning.
Professor Piazzi Smyth—On the constancy of Solar real
ation.
Professor Stevelly—A new method of treating the doe
trine of parallel lines.
SECTION B.—CHEMICAL SCIENCE;

Mr. B. C. Brodie, F.R.S., presided, and the papers read
were as follows :
R. W. Pearson, Manchester—On the Compounds of
Chromium and Bismuth.
John Horsley, Cheltenham—On the Conversion of Tan-
nin into Gallic Acid.
Dr. Augustus Voelcker—On the Corrosive Action of
Smoke on Building Stones.
Dr. Gladstone, F.R.S.—Notes on Nitroglycerine.
SECTION C.—GEOLOGY.

President—Professor A. C. Ramsay, F.R.S. The papers
read were by—
Professor Owen, F.R.S.—On a Fossil Mamma (Stereog-
nathus ooliticus) from the Stoneafield Slate.

Professor Owen, F.R.S.—On the Dichodon cuspidatus
from the Upper Eocene of the Isle of Wight and Hordwell,
Hants.

Professor Owen, F.R.S.—Additional Evidence of the
Fossil Musk•ox (Bubalus ditosdatus) from the Wiltshire
Drift.

T. Wright, M.D., F.R.S.E.—On the Stratigraphical
Distribution of the Oolitic Echinodermata.

Professor Harkness, F.R.S.—On the Lignites of the
Giant's Causeway and the Isle of Mull.

H. C. Sorby, F.G.S.— On the Magnesian Limestone
having been produced by the metamorphism of an ordi•
nary calcareous deposit.
SECTION D. ZOOLOGY AND BOTANY, INCLUDING
PHYSIOLOGY.
Mr. Thomas Bell, F.R.S., presided, and papers were
read by

James Samnelson—Experiments and observations on
he development of infusorial animalcules.

Dr. Williams—Continuation of Report on the British
Annelides.

Robert McAndrew—Report on the Physical Conditions
affecting the distribution of the Molusca in the North-East
Atlantic and neighbouring Seas.
Professor James Buckman—Notes on experiments in the
Botanical Garden of the Royal Agricultural College.
Professor Henfrey—On the Development of the Embryo
of Flowering Plants.
SECTION E.—GEOGRAPHY AND ETHNOLOGY.
Colonel Sir •H. C. Rawlinson, F.R.S., presided, and
papers were re-ad by

E. Vivian, F.G.S.—The first traces of human art in
Kent's Cavern, Torquay, especially flint knives and arrow
heads beneath the stalagmitic floor.

James Nasmyth, C.E.—On the plastic origin of the
cuneform character and its relation to our own alphabet.
SECTION F.—ECONOMIO SCIENCE AND STATISTICS.
Lord STANLEY presided in this section, and, upon taking
the chair at 11 o'clock, addressed the members as follows :
--I believe it will be my duty to open the proceedings of
this section by a few words relative to the purpose of our
meeting, and I must begin by observing that the remarks
which follow were prepared before the passing of that re-
solution yesterday, which has enlarged the scope of our
duties, so as to include, in addition to statistics, properly
so called, economic science in general. It is needless in
this presence to define at any length the nature or the
objectof statistical science. The axiom on which that science
is based may be stated thus—that the laws by which
nature is governed, and more especially those laws which
operate on the moral and physical condition of the human
race, are constant, and are in all cases best discover.
able ; in some cases only discernable by the investiga-
tion and comparison of phenomena extending over a very
large number of individual influences. In dealing with the
individual human being everything is uncertainty ; in deal-
ing with man in the aggregate results may be calculated
with the precision and accuracy of a mathematical pro-
blem. To take a familiar instance—the length of a sin-
gle life can never be known beforehand, but by the accu-
rate keeping of returns the aggregate length of 10,000 o
100,000 lives 'is easily ascertained ; this aggregate length,
the conditions of life being generally the same, approxi-
mates to a constant quantity, however often the experiment
be repeated, and from that quantity thus obtained we de-
duce an average, which, as the experience of every insur-
ance office shows, is near enough to the truth for ordinary
purposes of calculation. Accidental diversities, whether of
internal constitution or of external circumstances, tend to
neutralise one another ; their influence diminishes as the
area of investigation increases, until, if that area be suffi-
ciently extended, we are justified in disregarding them al- I
together, and admitting as approximately, if not as abso-
lutely true, the general inference to which our successive
trials point. I will not lead you into those strange and
startling conclusions to which Quetelch has come when
comparing some of the averages obtained with one another,
and representing them in mathemtical form, he finds in the
laws thus discovered a close resemblance to, perhaps, an
actual identity, with those which operate in physics—as,
for instance, when he lays it down that the obstacles
which oppose the increase of population act in a manner
exactly the same as does the resistance of a medium in
which a body moves to the motion of that body. Wide as
is the field of thought which such a suggestion opens, it
must probably be for many years premature to enter it ;
the laws as yet made known to us by statistical research
are too few to allow of generalisation relative to their mu-
tual interconnezion. Enough to cite the dictum of Quete-
let confirmatory of what has been said above. " All ob-
servation tends to confirm the truth of this proposition,
that that which concerns the human race collectively
is of the order of physical facts; the greater the
number of individuals, the more completely does the will
of individuals disappear ; and, allow the series of general
facts which depend upon the causes by which society
exists and is preserved to predominate, we must admit
that, on submitting to careful experiment organised bodies
and the social system, we are unable to say on which side
causes act in their effects with the greatest regularity.'
This, then, is the first characteristic of statistics as a
science—that it proceeds wholly by the accumulation and
comparison of registered. facts; that from these facts alone,
properly classified, it seeks to deduce general principles,
and that it rejects all a priori reasoning, employing hy-
pothesis if at all only in a tentative manner, and subject
to future verification. It starts from the assure-`l,x veri-
fi
many trials, that human action, fluctuating as re-
gards the human unit, is approximately invariable as re-
gards the masses which make up society. Bat there is
another aspect in which it may be considered. As a rule,
the degree of certainty which attends any science is ex-
actly proportioned to the extent to which such science ad-
mits of the application of numbers. We know what has
been done in chemistry by the discovery of a single nume- '
rical law—the theory of definite proportions—turning by
one stroke into a science what was before little more than
a collection of important but detailed observations. And
what we aim at in statistics is to substitute for vague
phrases, intended to express certain qualities, arithmetical
formulae, by which the same idea may be conveyed with a
precision to which language alone can attain. For instance,
the uneducated man, speaking of a climateor a season of
the year, will say only that it is warm, hot, or very hot.
The statistician registers the temperature of each day,
strikes an average, and gives his result in numerical
figures, extending it may be over a period of several years,
and calculated accordingly with the most absolute accu-
racy of which human investigation is capable. Again, the
traveller, in describing a nation which he has visited,
writes that offences of violence are exceedingly common,
probably more so than in any other country. The statisti-
cian crbtaillll returns of couicti9wl, diatDgviphing the

ferent classes of crime, ascertains the percentage of mur-
lers or assaults per head on the total population, allows of
the probable amount of undetected criminality, and finally
compares those results with others similarly obtained in
ether parts of the world. When, therefore, in discussing
social questions we apply the statistical test, we are really
doing nothing more than appealing from imagination to
fact, from a conjecture to certainty, from an imperfect to
a perfect method of observation. In the principle, strictly
peaking, there is no novelty. Every sensible and observ-
ing man who has lived in a civilised state of society has
been to some extent a statistician. The novelty consists,
drat, in the greater accuracy with which and the enlarged
scale on which facts can be collected in modern Europe ;
land, secondly, in the practical application of that theory
' which to philosophers must, from the analogy of inanimate
nature, have always appeared probable; the theory, viz,,
that organised beings, taken in the aggregate, are governed
in their acts by determinate and discoverable laws. It is
obvious that in a science of this kind, unlike many which
have occupied the attention of mankind, little room is left
fir imagination, and as little for error. On the first ground
this study is unattractive, even to many who appreciate
its value on the eminently and necessarily progressive.
" Hyptolleses non fingo," those memorable words of New,
ton's, should be written over the door of every statistical
society in Europe; nor is there any branch of mental exer-
tion so calculated to promote a cosmopolitan habit of
thought and feeling. Aran is the object studied, and man
io studied is seen to many in different countries only in
consequence of discoverable influencing causes—such as
race, climate, food, laws, modes of life, &c. However
great, therefore, the external differences between branches
of the haman family, the tendency of sociology is to elimi-
nate these differences one by one, to refer each of them to
its specific origin,and thus finally to bring to light theessential
unity of type stbidiuriclesaG.thessisail. I would also obseive
that, as an experimental science, the progress of statistics
is not liable to those delays which impede the advance of
many other branches of knowledge, whereas in maths•
matics the work to be done is transacted necessarily and
exclusively in the mind of the discoverer. Where the
quantity and not the quality of ;the intellect brought to
bear is all-important great advances are rare, for the plain
reason that they can only be made by men of extraordis
nary capacities. No number of ordinary proficients in
mathematics working jointly can make up for the absence
or supply tho place of one Newton. But, though not one
man in 10,000 can be distinguished as an analyst or a geo-
meter, the number is far larger of those who possess the
mental requisites for statistical investigation, at ,least in
its simple forms ; and, without disparaging the remark-
able talent for arrangement and generalisation evinced by
such men as Quetelet and by some of our own countrymen
whom I will not here mention, it may be safely affirmed
that the extension of statistical inquiry depends less on
the appearance among us of any one mind more than coins
mon power than on the sustained and co-operative indus-
try encouraged by the state of many minds turned to this
pursuit, and each taking a separate and distinct apartment
in which to labour. It is almost superfluous to point out
the sources of those errors which most beset statisticians ;
they may, I think, be reduced under two heads—first, cal-
culation of near results from an insufficient number of data
—a fault from the effects of which, in finances, many pro-
vident societies are suffering grievously ; and secondly,
calculation of near results without sufficient care being
taken to eliminate disturbing causes, whether this omis-
sion arises out of the classing together of phenomena essen-
tially distinct and referable to separate laws, or from
omitting to make allowance for imperfections in the data
g., as though one engaged on criminal statis-
tics were to assume that all offences committed were actu-
ally brought to light, overlooking those in which no detec-
tion follows, and consequently iu which no trial takes
place. Neither of the sources of error which I have mon-

tioned aro difficult to avoid. The one danger against all
physical science, but in no science more than this of
which we treat, is suspension of judgment necessary. I
mean by the phrase that temper of mind which says "I
never believe or disbelieve evidence is wanting to do either.
I only wait, and hold myself free from bias until further
facts are adduced." How easy this is in theory, how hard
and painful in practice, need not be told to any one who
has given time and thought and toil to the proof or dis-
proof of a scientific hypothesis. Time would not allow me
even to attempt the most rapid and hasty survey of what
has been done, and what yet needs doing in the way of sta-
tistical research. Generally I think we may say this of the
progress of science in England, that what defects remain
arise principally from causes beyond the controul of indi-
viduals. Statistics are the function of a State in a sense
iu which no other science is so. The details of population,
of employment, of instruction, of religious worship, of
commerce, and of health, are already recorded in official
publications. Those of agricultural production we may
hope will shortly follow. (Hear, hear.) The branch which
I principally note as deficient is that which relates to
civil and criminal judicature. (Hear, hear.) Lord Broug-
ham has brought this subject before the House of Lords,
and even embodied in a bill the data on which informa-

tion is needed. We require a regular and uniform record
to be kept of every fact connected with the administration
of the law. (Hear.) Wo require to know, in civil pro-
ceedings especially, the number and nature of suits that go
to each court, the length of time occupied in their decision,
the nature of that decision, and the cost to the parties.
Our criminal returns might be fuller than they are. They
gave us at present absolutely no information respecting that
vast class of offences (of late much increased) which are
dealt with under summary jurisdiction. It is not wise in
any country to copy servilely the practices of another; local
differences may create and necessitate diversity of proce-
dure ; but I may refer to tho annual reports (two yearly vo-
lumes) of the Minister of Justice in France, as a sample of
an almost perfect arrangement of complicated statistical de-
tails. Ono result of that publication is to show a vast local
difference between department and department in the na-
ture and amount of crime. It is that when such a differ-
ence is shown by the lapse of a sufficient period to be chro-
nic, and not merely casual, the Government whose atten-
tion is thus invited must feel itself bound to investigate
the source of the evil, and, if possible, provide a cure.
(Hear.) In fact, an Executive regularly supplied with
such knowledge may be said to have its finger on the pulse
of every province, ready at the first symptom of disease to
intervene with a requisite remedy. (Hear.) There is another
suggestion which I may make, and which indeed connects
itself with this last. I allude to the advantage—l might
almost say the necessity—of establishing a statistical de-
partment of Government charged with the annual publi-
cation of such facts relative to the management of national
affairs as are reducible to numerical expression. We have
statistics enough presented to Parliament every session,
but they are, in the great majority of cases, called for by
individuals. They are drawn out to suit the particular
purpose of those who move for them ; they aro accordingly
deficient in unity, and often of no use beyond the moment.
Now I speak from some personal observation when I say,
that at a cost hardly greater than that of these desultory
fragmentary isolated returns (which have in addition the
inconvenience, coming as they do at unexpected times,
add without any regularity, of throwing a sudden increase
of work on particular officers) it would be possible to pre-
sent to the nation such a yearly resume of administrative
statistics as should to a very great degree supersede the
present system (if system it can be called) of moving for
returns as and when they are wanted. I have said that I
think a statistical department desirable instead of a statis-
tical branch in every d epartm en t, because the former method
gives better security for unity of plan, and because the work
will be bestidone by those whose sole and undivided business
it is. I have not referred to the meetings of the Interna-
tional Congress of Brussels and Paris, bcause, on such a
subject, I could offer no remark that would not naturally
occur to those whom I address. Such meetings have a two-
fold value ; first, they extend the field of statistical re-
search, and we have seen that accuracy of result varies di-
rectly as the magnitude of the area of investigation ; 2dly,
they form a new link between nation and nation, because,
though speech differs, arithmetical notation is the same
everywhere. In proportion, therefore, as numerical is
substituted for descriptive statement we approach nearer
to that otherwise impracticable dream of philosophers—an
universal language. There is, I believe I may state, a
probability of the congress of 1857 being held in London,
an expectation which seems both natural and reasonable,
inasmuch, as has been averred in public and not denied,
that the first design of holding such international meets
ings was suggested by the analogy of the Hyde Park Exhi-
bition of 1851. Should the event I allude to take place it
will become the duty of all concerned in statistical science
to see that such an opportunity does not pass unimproved ;
so that 1858 may find us with a thorough organised system
for the annual collection and publication of national facts,
assimilated, if possible, to the system of France and Bel-
gium. For it must be borne in mind that the objects to be
arrived at are two—one, the adoption of a method as perfect
in itself as possible ; the other, an assimilation of that
method to those which prevail elsewhere, so that nations
may mutually profit by each other's experience. As a
proof how much such comparing of notes is required, I
may remind you that the census of Ireland and Scotland
was taken in a manner different from that of England,
while no attempt has ever been made to bring the entire
British empire, including India and the colonies, under a
single statistical organisation. (Hear.) The consitution
of such a statistical department as we require is matter of
fair discussion at the approaching congress. Probably
the most effective combination of working talent would
he that obtained by the appointment of a commission or
board to preside over the issuing of official publications,
partly composed of scientific men, partly of members of the
permanent or Parliamentary Administration (the former
preferable as having more leisure), who would bring in the
necessary elements of a knowledge of official customs. This
is, I believe, the system actually existing in Belgium. In
Prussia there is a Minister at the head of the statistical de-
partment, but those who wish to find the question more
fully discussed will find information in a valuable report
by Dr. Farr to the Register-General, dated Oct., 1855. I
wish also to point out to the association the advantage of
such a communication between the Home Government and
the leading British colonies in reference to the approaching
congress as may enable such of them as desire it to repre-
sent themselves by means of delegates. Before I conclude
let me read a letter from the secretary to the London Sta-
tistical Society, giving an account of an important work
in which its members are engaged, the only work of the
kind which the society has just now in hand. The letter
is as follows:
_ _

" Statistical Society, 1?, St. James'-square, Aug. G.
" Sir,—.l have received from Mr. Lumley this morning
the returns relating to the expenses of the Poor Law Board
iu the 111Qtropilig. 110110) I have deducted the followialg

istatement, which I believe to be as correct as it is possible
to make it from the information in my hands :
Annual income of 49 hospitals £352,370
58 dispensaries
11 Samaritan and other funds dependent
on hospitals and dispensaries
Annual cost of medical relief under Poor
Law...........
Vaccination ..

1,65 G

Poor Law relief not medical

28,776
4,393

415,387
736,809

.f. 1,152,196
" The returns of the 49 hospitals include a sum o:
72,402/. paid from parish rates to lunatic hospitals.
In Paris in 1853

Francs.

Expenses of Hospitaux, including Maisons do
Sante and Maisons de Convalescence
Hospices
•• ~,
General management
General Establishment for the use of both
Hospitaux and Hospices

... 5,391,614
3,943,323
631,168

28,1G1

9,999,2G6
"The receipts of the Central Board (l'Administration
Generale de l'Assistauca Publique) are of various sorts, and
are not all applicable to medical charities.
In 1853 their amount was
Annual municipal grant

14,021,329
" I am, Sir, your obedient servant,
"Dr. Farr, F.R.S. " E. T. SCARGILL.
" P.S. Assuming that the population of Paris is half that
of Loudon, the sum expended at Paris rate for a population
equal to that of London would be 1,121,7061., the total ex-
penditure for London being, as just stated, 1,152,1961."
The noble lord, in conclusion, said, I have now only to
announce to you the papers about to be read, and to request
attention to the following rule laid down for the sake of
brevity and clearness in our proceedings :—" To avoid
reading long consecutive lists of figures, and as far as pos-
sible to give only results. Where money is in question ro
omit shillings and pence, stating only the number of
pounds. Where large sums are concerned, to give round
numbers, avoiding units." Of course there is a medium
in observing these directions, and if the choice lies between
the two, better be obscure than inaccurate. All I mean to I
convey is, that over minuteness in these matters is apt to
defeat its own end.
_ _

The noble lord resumed his seat amid much applause.
Papers were then read by Mr. James W. Gilbert, on the
Family Principle in London Banking ; by Mr. John T.
Denson, on the Connexion between Slavery in the United
States of America and the Cotton Manufacture in the
United Kingdom ; by Dr. Strang, on the Progress, Extent,
and value of the Earthenware, Porcelain, and Glass Manu-
factories of Glasgow ; and by Ur. W. No wmarch, on the
Former and Present Plan of Disposing of the Waste Lands
in the Australian Colonies."
SECTION G.—MECHANICAL SCIENCE.
Mr. G. Ronnie, F.R.S., presided, and a paper was read
by Mr. C. Atherton on " Mercantile Steam Transport
Economy.'
The business of sections concluded about 4 o'clock.
This evening there is to be a soiree and promenade at
Pittville Spa, towards the expenses of which the local com-
mittee have contributed 1001.