The Sun.
London, England, 1856-08-08 00:00:00

AUGUST r, 1856.

ferent classes of crime, a.s,Nartains the percentage of mur-
ders or assaults per head on the total population, allows of
the probable amount of undetected criminality, and finally
compares these results 'with others similarly obtained in
other parts of the world. When, therefore, in discussing
social questions we apply the statistical test, we are really
doing nothing more than appealing from imagination to
fact, from a conjecture to certAinty, from an imperfect to
a perfect method of observation. In the principle, strictly
speaking, there is no novelty. Every sensible and observ7
ing man who Las lived in a civilisal state of society has
been to some extent a statistician. The novelty consists,
first, in 'the greater accuracy with which and the enlarged
scale on which facts can be collected in modern Europe ;
and, secondly, in the practical application of that' theory
which to philosophers must; from the analogy of inanimate
nature, have always appeared probable; the theory, viz.,
that organised beings, taken in the aggregate, are governed
in their acts by determinate and discoverable laws. It is

obvious that in a science of this kind, unlike many which
have occupied the attention of mankind, little room is left
fer imagination, and as little fur error. On the first ground
this study is unattractive, ever to many who approciai•
its value on the eminently and necessarily progressive.
" Hyptoheses non fingo," those memorable words of New-

ton's, should be written over the door of every statistical
society in Europe; nor is there any branch of mental exer-
tion so calculate•.! to promote a: ccistnopolitan habit of
thought and feeling. Man is the object-studied, and man
so studied is seen to many in different countries only in
consequence of discoverable influencing
.cruses—such as
race, climate, food, laws, modes of life, &c. However
groat, therefore, the external differences between branches
of the human family, the tendency of sociology is to elimi-
nate these differences one by one, to refer:each of them to
its specific origin, and thua.finally to bring to light theesseutial
unity of type which underlies them all. I would also observe

lit, as an experimental science, the progress of statistics

is not liable to those delays which impede the advance of
many other branches of knowledge, whereas in mathe-
matics the work to be done is transacted necessarily and

exclusively in the min .1 of the discoverer. Where the
quantity and not the quality of the intellect brought to
boar is all-important great advances are rare, for the plain
reason that they can only be made by men of extraordi-
nary capacities. No number of ordinary proficients in
mathematics working jointly can make up for the absence
or supply the place of one Newton. But, though not one
man in 10,000 can be distinguished as an analyst or a geo-
meter, the number is far larger of those who possess the
mental requisites for statistical investigation, at least in
its simple forms; and, without disparaging the remark-

able talent for arrangetneut ant generalisation evinced by
each men as Quotelet and by some of our own countrymen
whom I will not here mention, it may be safely affirmed
that the extension of statistical inquiry depends less on
the appearance among us of any one mind more than core-
mon power than on the sustained and co-operative indus-
try encouraged by the state of many minds turned to this
pursuit, and each taking a separate and distinct apartment

in which to labour. It is almost supalluous to point out
the sources of those errors which most beset statisticians;
they may, I think, be reduced under two heads—first, cal-
culation of near results from an insufficient number of data

—a fault from the effects of which, in finances, many pro-
vilent societies are sufficing grievon:ly ; eat sec.m,lly,

calculation of near results without sufficient care being,
taken to eliminate disturbing causes, whether this oinis-

sion arises out of the classing together of phenomena essen-
tially distinct and referable to separate laws, or from

omitting to make allowance for imperfections in the data
supplied,--c. g., as though one engaged ou criminal statis-

tics were to assume that all offeuceseoretnitteu were ;Acta-

ally brought to light, overlooking those in which no detec-
tion follows, and consreptently iu which no trial takes
place. Neither of the sources of error which I have men-
tioned are difficult to avoid. The one danger against all

physical science, but in no science more than this of
which we treat, is suspension of judgment necessary. I

mean by the phrase that temper of mind which says "I

never b,llieve or disbelieve evidence is wanting to do either.

I only wait, and hold myself free froth bias until further
facts are adduced." How easy this is in theory, how lrird

and painful in practice, need not be told to any one who
has given time and thought and toil to the proof or dis-
proof of a scientific hypothe4s. Time would not allow me
even to attempt the most rapid and hasty survey of what
has been done, and what yet needs doing in the way of sta-
tistical research. Generally I think we may say this of the
progress of science in England, that what defects remain
arise principally from causes beyond the controul of indi-
viduals. Statistics are the function of a State iu a sense
in which no other science is so. The details of population,
of employment, of instruction, of religious worship, of
commerce, and of health, are- already recorclad in seninisl
publications. Those of agricultural production we may
hope will shortly follow. (-Hear, hear.) The branch which
I principally note as deficient is that which relates to
civil and criminal judicature. (Hear, hear.) Lord Broug-
ham has brought this subjsct'before the House of Lords,
and even embodied in a bill the data on which informa-
tion is needed. We require a regular and uniform record
to be kept of every fact connected with the administration
of the law, (Hear.) We require to know, in civil pro-
ceedings especially, the number and nature of suits thatgo
to each court, the length of time occupied in their decision,
the nature of that decision, and the cost to the parties.
Our criminal returns might be fiiller than they are. They
gave us at presentabsolutely no information respecting that
vast class of offences (of late much increased) which are
dealt with under summary jurisdittion. It is not wise in
any country to copy servilely the practices of another; local
differences may create and necessitate diversity of proce-
dure ; but I way refer to the annual reports (two yearly vo-
lumes) of the Minister of Justice in France, es a sample of
an almost perfect arrangement of complicated statistical de-
tails. One result of that publication is to show a vast local
difference between department ant department in the na-
ture and amount of crime. It is that when such a differ-
ence is shown by the lapse of is sufficient period to be ,chro-
nic, and not, merely casual, the .Government whose atten-
tion is thus invited must feel itself bound to investigate
the source of the evil, and, if possible, provide a cure.
(Hear) In fact, an Executive regularly supplied with
such knowledge way be said to have its finger on the pulse
of every province, ready at the first symptom of disease to
intervene with a requisite remedy. (Hear.) There is another
suggestion which I may make, and which indeed connects
itself with this last. I allude to the advantage—l might
almost say the necessity—of establishing a statistical de-
partment of Government charged with the annual publi-
cation of such facts relative to the management of national
affairs as are reducible to numerical expression. We have
statistics enough presented to Parliament every session,
but they are, in the great majority of cases, called for by
individuals. They are drawn out to suit the particular
purpose of those who move for them ; they are accordingly
deficient in unity, and often of no use beyond the moment.
Now I speak from some personal observation when I say,
that at a cost hardly greater than that of these desultory
fragmentary isolated returns (which have in addition the
ineouveuience, coining as they do at unexpected times,
add without any regularity, of throwing a sudden increase
of work on particular officers) it would be possible to pre-
sent to the nation such a yearly resume of administrative
statistics as should to a very great d gree supersede the
present system (if system it can be calied) of moving for
returns as anti when they are wanted. I have said that I
think a statistical department desirable instead of a statis-
tical branch iu everytlepartment,because the former method
gives better security for unity of plan, and because the work
will be hestidone by those whose sole and undivided business
it is. I have not referred to the m cringe of the Interna-
tional Congress f Brussels and Paris, because, on such a
subject, I could offer no remark that would not naturally
occur to those whom I address. Such meetings have a two-
fold value ; first, they extend the field of statistical re-
search, and we have seen that accuracy of result varies di-
rectly as the magnitude of the area of investigation ; 2dly,
they form a new link between nation and nation, because,
though speech differs, arishmetical notation -is the same
everywhere, In proportion, therefore, as numerical is
substituted tor descriptive statement we approach nearer
to that otherwise impractical le drew. of philesopherre—an
universal language. There is, I believe I may state, a
probability of the congress of 1857 beteg held in London,
an expectation which seems both natural and reasonable,
inasmuch, as has been averred in public and not denied,:
that the first desiin of holding such international meet•
iogs was suggested by the analogy of the Hyde Park Exhi-
bition of 1851. -Should the event I allude to take place
will become the duty of all concerned in statistical science
cyllection and 'publicatien of national facts,
assimilated, find us with a thorough organised system
for
i ur n ha.
etFo Bnrs n 8
it o
to see that such an opportunity' does not pa's unimproved ;
fualf
possible, to the system of France and Bel-
gmind that the objects to be
arrived at are two—one, the adoption of a method as perfect
the
ia
must be borne in
in itself as possible ; the other, an assimilation of that
method to those which prevail elsewhere, so that nations
may mutually profit by each other's experience. As a
proof how much such comparing' of notes is required, I
may remind you that the census of Irolafid and Scotland
was taken in a manner different from that of England,
while no attempt has ever been made to bring the entire
British empire, including India and the colonies, under a
single statistical organisation. (Hear.) -The consitution
of such a statistical department ae we require is matter of
fair discussion at the approaching congrees. Probably
the most effective combination of working talent would
be that obtained by the' appointment of a commission or
board to preside over the issuing of official publications,
pertly composed of scientific men, partly of members of the
permanent or Parliamentary ekimitiistration (the former
preferable as having more leisure), who would bring iu the
neceisai y elements of a knowledge of official customs. This
is, Ie believe, the system actually existing in Belgium. In
Privisia there is a Minister at the head of statistical de-
partment, but those who wish to find the question more
fully discussed will find inforination in a valuable report
by Dr. Farr to the Register-Geperal, dated Oct., 1855. I
wish also to point out to the association the advantage of
inch a communication between the Home'Goveinmeut and
Ale leading British colonies in reference to the approaching
emigreas as may enable such of them as desire it to repre-
sent themselves by means of delegates. Before I conclude
:tt me read a letter from the secretary to the London St»;
jetted Society, giving an account of an important work
a which its members are engaged, the only work of the
'rind which the society has just now in hand. The letter
Is as follows:
" Statistical Society, 12, St. James'-square, Aug. 6.
" Sire-I have received from Mr. Lumley this morning
• he re:urns relatiug to the expenses of the Poor Law Board
in the metropolis. ; Hence I have deducted the following

statement, which I believe to be as correct as it is possible
to make it from the information in my hands
Annual
.inco-iiii- onFECipitals ;.c.:3"3,370
58 dispensaries
• 25,192
. 11 Samaritan and other funds dependent - 1
on hospitals and dispensaries 1,656
Annual cost of medical relief under Poor
Law 2 ,776
Vaccination - ,393
.-6-...
41 ,387
Poor Law relief not mediell.. .

£l,l
" The returns of the 49 bo3pitals inclurle a sum of
72,402 t. rpti,l from parish rates to lunatic Lo4pitals.
" In Pails in 1853

Francs.

•
Expenses of Hospitaux, including Maisons do
Sante and Maisons de Convalescence , 5,091,6' 4
Hospices 3,943,32:3
General management 631,1;8
General Establishment for the use of both
Hospitaux and Hospices

9,999,266

"The receipts of the Central Board (l'Adminiit ration
Generale de l'Assistance Publique) are of various sorts, and
are not all applicable to medical charities
In 1853 their amount was
Annual municipal grant

I 4 021,329
" I am, Sir, your obedient servant,
"Dr. Farr, F.R.S. " F. T. SCARGILL.

" P.S. As;uming that the population of Paris is half that
of Loudon, the suin expended at Paris rate for a population
equal to that of London would be 1,121,,'061., the total ex •
penditure for London being, as just stated, 1 15?,194."
The noble lord, in conclusion, said, 1-have,now only to
anaounce to you the papeis about to be read, and to request
attention to the following rule laid, down for the sake of
brevity and clearness in our proceedings i—" To avoid
reading long consecutive lilts of figures, and as fa: as pos-
sible to give only results. Where money is iu question ro
omit shillings and pence, stating only the number of
pounds. Where large sums are concerned, to give round
numbers, avoiding units." Of course there is a medium
in observing these directions, and if the &micelles between
the two, better be obscure than inaccurate. All I mean to
convey is, that over minuteness in these matters is apt to
defeat its own end. •

The noble lord resumed his seat mail much applause.
Papers were then read by Mr. James W. Gilbert, on the
Family Principle in London Banking ; by Hr. John T.
Denson, on the Connexion between Slavery in the United
States of America and the Cotton Manufacture in the
United Kingdom ; by Dr. Strang, on the Progress, Extent,
and value of the Earthenware, Porcelain, an:l Glass Mann-
f actories of Glasgow; and by fr. W. Newmarch, on the
Former and Present Planof Disposing of the Waste Lands
in the Australian Colonies."
SECTION G.—MECHANICAL SCIENCE.

Mr. G. Rennie, F.R.S., presided, and a piper was read
by Mr. C. Atherton on " Mercantile Steam Transport
Economy.'
•

The business of sections conclnde4 about 4 o'clock.

T .is evening there is to be a soiree an I promenade at
Pittville Spa, towards the expenses of which the local com-
mittee have contlibuted 100/.