The Sun.
London, England, 1871-01-07 00:00:00

OUR COTEMPORARIES---This Morning

THE STATE W PARIS.

The Times says :—Of the'results of the bombardment of
Paris it is too early as yet to speak with any confidence.
The French report that their forts, up to Tuesday, had
suffered no appreciable damage ; none, at least, that
could not be repaired during the respite of the long
winter night. Since that date, however, we know
that the bombardment of the northern and eastern
side has been carried on, " partly by newly-erected
batteries "—probably, as we anticipated, by batte-
ries advanced under favour of the foggy weather.
On the south the German fire has been directed against
three of the forts—lssy, Vanvres, and Montrouge. Two of
the other forts on this side (Bicetre and Ivry) are screened
by the outwork at Villejuif, and this has had to bear the
brunt of the German artillery, which has at the same
time attacked the inner enceinte itself at that south-
western corner which bears the name of Point du Jour. We
hardly know to what extent we may credit the statement
which reaches us from Berlin that the German shells,
besides silencing 'the batteries of the eastern forts, have
broken through and destroyed the casemates. If that
were, indeed, the case, either at Fort Rosny or at
any other of those detached forts, the whole line would
soon become untenable ; especially as we are assured that
Fort Rosny has only been attacked by guns of inferior cali-
bre, and that more powerful pieces willbe employed against
the Southern front. It had already been generally surmised
that M. Thiers' fortifications would have little chance
against the artillery which the Germans could
bring against them. But we had been so confi-
dently assured that the armour of Paris had re-
ceived a new temper at the hand of General Trochu since
the commencement of the siege, and that the place might
be now looked upon as invulnerable, that our worst appre-
hensions gave way, and the belief prevailed that the Ger-
mans, far from expecting any success from an attack,
were actually afraid to venture on the experiment. The
artillery, on which the French placed so much reliance,
seems, however, to be no match for the guns arrayed
against it, and it is possible that the masonry of the
forts is not more solid than that of the other French
fortresses which have been reduced. But before
We can bring ourselves to believe that even the
casemates have become unserviceable at so early a stage
of the bombardment, we must be convinced not only that
their structure was most faulty, but also that the French
have for these last three or four months neglected the
common precautions of covering them with thick layers
of earth to break the fall of the projectiles, and blunt the
effect of their concussion.
The Telegraph, in discussing the question whether Paris
will fall through bombardment or famine, concludes as
follows :—The inexorable laws of arithmetic indicate the
approach of famine in Paris. An army of a hundred
thousand men may, at the expiration of a month, still be
an army one hundred thousand strong, or, at least, its
death rate need not be more than one or two per cent.
But, if on the first of that month the commis-
sariat of that army comprises thirty thousand
sacks of flour, with a proportionate number of
oxen, sheep, casks of salt meat, and hogsheads of wine, it
is obvious, that on the first of the ensuing month a
hundred thousand rations consumed must be deducted
from the store of the provisions. It is equally clear that
in the course of so many months there will be no more
flour, meat, or wine left, and that if the hundred thousand
men are not revictualled, they must starve. There
are well-nigh two millions of men, women, and
children in Paris. But that we are yet ignorant
what were the stores of food originally laid in, we should
be able to calculate week by week and day by day the
probable duration of agony for the Parisians. We should
know when the hour was coming, and when the knell of
submission must be sounded: It is, however, highly
improbable that in September last Paris could
have been provisioned so amply as to enable the
besieged to tide over the end of the first month
in the next yeart We are now at the end of the first
week in January. Scarcity, we know, is not famine.
Massdna's men in Genoa, Fenwick Williams
and the Turks in Kars, were reduced to direr
straits and to devour more repulsive things
than the Parisians have yet tasted. Never-
theless, all that we hear from the invested city,
and even the statements last received from the Prussian
head-quarters as to the apparent progress made by the
besieger's batteries since the guns opened fire, induce the
conviction that hunger is the real rock ahead, and that, in
all probability, famine rather than bombardment will be
the main cause of capitulation.

JULES FAVRE'S ABSENCE AT THE CONFERENCE.
The Conference, which was to have held its first sitting
in London on the 3rd of January, remarks the Standard,
has been adjourned for ten days, and the reason assigned
for this postponement is a desire to give time to M. Jules
Favre to reach England from Paris. The intention of the
Foreign Minister of France to leave Paris, in order to discuss
diplomatically the question of the control of the Black Sea,
seemed to us unreasonable, at the moment when M. de
Chandordy announced it to the other Cabinets of Europe,
and still more so now. The only rational explanation of
it was that a hope existed of resuming with the other
great Neutral Powers the task begun by M. Thiers of
rousing them up from their culpable slumber,
and of inviting their mediation between the
belligerents. But now that the Germans have
taken Mont Avron, and that the bombardment of the
forts at the east side of Paris has begun, the departure of
M. Favre would look very like a desertion and an aban-
donment of his post. It would inflict serious damage on
the Government. Paris is greatly excited. The local
suffering, the increasing pressure of the siege, have pro-
duced a general restlessness. The conduct of the military
commanders has been found fault with. The words " igno-
rance and incapacity " have been uttered and applied, The
members of the Government are in their turn insulted
and accused, just as they themselves accused and insulted
their predecessors. A few days more, and the populace of
Paris may be shouting "treason" in the streets. For
a foolish pride is the incurable malady of
the nation. The French never confess that
they have been defeated. They always in such
cases say that they have been betrayed. Sedan
capitulates—treason L Metz surrenders—treason ! The
Army of the Loire receives a check—treason ! If
Paris yields to•morrow to famine and to the feebleness
of its fire, the heroes of to-day—Generals Trochu and
Ducrot—will be branded traitors, and officers
will be found who, wonderfully energetic after
the event, will attack their late commanders, and seek
to justify their conduct by the reckless calumnies
of the crowd. If it be the case, then, as everything
portends, that Paris is on the eve of acrisis,
supreme the
members of the Government are not likely to allow their
colleague, the Minister for Foreign Affairs, to absent
himself, and, probably, he himself has been the first to
refuse the mission attributedto him. It is said that Gene-
ral Trochu meditates a formidable attack on the enemy's
lines. His character as a military man as well as the political
and military interests of the national defence call
upon him for the most desperate efforts. The
duty of M. Jules Favre is to be present at this
grand undertaking, and to share either the triumph
or the defeat. His political colleagues would never for-
give him if he were to betake himself to London at a time
when the independence and integrity of the French nation
are at stake.

THE CONFERENCE AND THE FRENCH REPUBLIC.
In the opinion of the Daily News, the demand for the
formal recognition of the French Republic—whether it
be put forward as a condition of the entrance of France
into the Conference, or urged by a section of too
impulsive persons in London—can only be met
by the simple statement that England has fully
and officially recognised the only Government which
does actually exist in France. If a national vote were to
place an ostensibly Republican Government in 'power in
France, England would no less willingly enter into ordi-
nary diplomatic relations with it. The majority of Eng-
lishmen believe at this moment that a plebiscite would
establish a Republican Government in France ;
that no other Government would have a chance of
stability in the present state of affairs ; and that the
men who now form the Provisional Government
tf National Defence would probably be found at
he head of the Republic. Why should so
great a distinction be drawn between a Republican
Government which does not exist and the Provisional
Government which actually holds power ? Is it feared
that the Orleanists who voluntarily retired from France
three or four months ago will come forward and
seize the throne ? With all due regard for those honour-
able and highly respectable princes, we do not
credit them with that amount of personal and
unscrupulous determination which would enable
them to achieve their private success by a complication
of the present dangers of France. Is it feared that
Napoleon may return to Paris? We should begin to
despair of the political future of France, and of Europe,
if such a monstrous thing were to become possible.
Why, then, should England hurry to recognise a Re-
public which France herself has not yet declared?
We may hope that no diplomatic formality will
prevent Franco sending a representative to the Conference.
Without France the Conference could not well be held.
The fact that the representative of France would meet
on peculiar terms the representative of Prussia has
but little significance. Diplomatic envoys are not
supposed to have any personal quarrel. It is
oce.
ena
idaaFlecycryoa,
ItnNervetuh
gohiailse
thenr to otig,
private
vaa t meetfallente es
no new thing for the representatives of Govern-
ments just emerging from a d
sentimenttf nhel lofnitra elo
fofriend its liness;
a'anfi
individual
nitpatlls
out of the common wealth of great nations ; and she owes
it to herself to show that she is still possessed of plenary
diplomatic powers,