The Sun.
London, England, 1871-02-10 00:00:00

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M]TROPOLITAN GOSSlP.—ThuropAy.

The inauguration of a most important and anxious ses-
sion has passed off in " Queen's weather," but scarcely in
Queenly style. There was a good deal of cheering, to be sure,
perhaps more than the majority of people expected,
but nothing like the enthusiasm of yore. However, it
might have been worse. The first day of this terrible
session is dealt with by other hands than mine. I need
only say that there is every prospect of a very busy
season. London is getting as full of aristocrats
as the disastrous effects of the Bankruptcy Law will per-
mit. You find a great difference between the leading
West end thoroughfares a week or two ago and their ap-
pearance now. The crush of carriages increases daily.
Paint and polishing goes on.• everywhere. The shops are
putting their hest in the windows. We shall soon be in
flame*, here, and ft will be remarkabe if the first six
months of 1&71 are much less exciting than the last six of
1870.

The Speech from the Throne contains the expected
promise of a reform in the army. Speculation is still as
much baffled as ever in endeavouring to forecast the
nature of this measure—the measure of the session ; and
certainly the Governmenthave kept their secret well. Their
attitude is somewhat puzzling. The best " authorities "
are agreed that the purchase system is doomed, wholly or
in part, and that the short service and reserve system will
come into force. But there are no signs of either Mr.
Cardwell or the Duke of Cambridge withdrawing from
their present posts, and how can their retention be com-
patible with an army reform of the kind most needed ?
The question is perplexing ; nevertheless, I adhere to the
belief that the purchase system will go.
The Government have not failed to profit by the un-
mistakeable temper of public opinion in favour of France.
If the prevailing statement be correct, as I believe it is,
the work of mediation has been carried on very actively
of late. The British Government did much to promote
the armistice; it has through Mr. Odo Russell strongly
supported the proposal for an extension of the time—it
being clear enough that the work will not be got through
by the 19th ; and it also strove to reconcile M. Gam-
betta with the Paris Ministers. The report is very
current that something has been done in the way of urging
moderation upon the victors. Such a task is au extremely
delicate one, though it is necessary enough. Austria and
Italy may have co-operated in this endeavour. Russia
certainly did not.

Great occasion as the opening of this Parliament is, far
more interesting still is the convocation of the Parlia-
ment across the Channel. The meeting of the French
National Assembly is an unparalleled event. But momen-
tous as it is we are able to get very littleinformation bear-
ing upon it. The silence of the wires is remarkable.
It seems, however, that the Monarchists are allowing the
Republicans to win simply through default. From the
few particulars I can gather from letters and French
papers, it would appear that only the Republicans were
carrying on a regular plan of campaign in many of the
departments. Even those districts most averse to a
Republic can find scarcely anybody to represent them.
There appears to be a general impression that the present
Assembly will be discredited by the conclusion of a disas-
trous peace, and that power and influence will be best
secured by waiting for the next election. lam far from
sure that this policy will prove a wise one.
The representatives of the people are not discredited, like
a Government, by making peace. Moreover, what reason
is there to believe that the body now being elected will be
content to dissolve after merely performing this hateful
task ? It will more probably proceed to nominate a form
of Government, will draw up a Constitution, parties will
form themselves, and—then ?
The game, I am convinced, is in Gambetta's hands—at
all events for the present. He has but to play his cards
well in order to wiu. His chances of governing France
for some time to come are far better than the chances of
either Napoleon, or the Due d'Aumale. Consider the situ-
ation for a moment. There can be little doubt that the
great majority of the active politicians of the country,
those men who make its political life, are on the side of
the Republic. In the great towns, this is notoriously
the case. In the country the prevailing political
belief is of the negative kind : the peasantry
have no particular attachment to any dynasty,
but they dread the Republic, simply because for
twenty years their priests, schoolmasters, and prefects
have systematically preached to them, justifiably or not,
that the Republic is a bad thing, subversive of all notions
of property, and to be avoided at any cost, no matter
what kind of despeftisna may gain the upper hand. But
though the peasantry live in this state of ignorant fright,
they have no leaders,l2o other party possessing anything like
an organisation is in the field, and there is no time to
remedy the deficiency. The Republicans will 1)e ,united,
and have official countenance (even if they do not discre-
ditably copy the Imperialist vice of " putting on the
screw"). The monarchical opposition will be scattered and
disorganised. There can be little doubt er difficulty in
determining how Gambetta can, if he chooses, utilize this
position to his own benefit. If he is prudent he will wait
until peace is made by the Assembly. He will then pre-
sent himself as the ablest and most energetic of the Re-
publican leaders. He was the only one " who did not
despair of the Republic." He pronounces for the policy
of winning back the two lost provinces. The Imperialist
armies will return from Germany ; the Republicans from
Switzerland; and these, with the scattered forces in
different parts of France, will make over a million troops,
all of whom have seen service, and who, with a proper
amount of drill and organisation, may readily rival the
formidable hosts of Germany. It may be said that it will
be impossible to withdraw such a force from civil life.
But what myriads were withdrawn from civil life in the
wars of the First Napoleon, when the population was
much smaller than it is now ! In 1848 it was found neces-
sary to establish national workshops for the men out of
employment. The army might as well be the great
national workshop as any other. As to the finances, it is
needless to repeat the plea that no nation was ever pre-
vented from going to war through deficiency of money.
This is the programme which it lies within M. Gambetta's
power to carry out. How long it would be before the
plan was broken up by one of those catastrophes so com-
mon inTrench politics, I do not profess to say. Pro-
bably not very long. But he has the best chance o f
gaining present supremacy, and this prospect bodes no
good to the peace of Europe.

So excellent are Gambetta's chances of leading the
French people, smarting with injury and burning for
revenge, into this injurious, possibly ruinous, but certainly
seductive course, that I am quite inclined to believe what
was told me byl an old Republican who came into xile
during the Empire, and who is too advanced in years to
go on the rampage amongst the Reds again. He says
that Gambetta purposely contrived the rupture with
the Paris Government, in order to get himself free, and
afterwards refused all compromise and reconciliation, so
that his design of breaking away might not be frustrated.
It is needless to insist upon the political advantages of
such a move.

I have excellent private testimony to the effect that the
summoning of the National Assembly is considered a
grievous blow by the Imperialists. If the old Chamber
had been re-convened, or if no Assembly whatever had
existed, Napoleon might have come back. But he knows
full well what a general election is in France. He is
aware that he must learn to labour and to wait before his
next opportunity arrives. The Empress, too, knows what
a general election in France is. She was, I am informed,
overwhelmed with grief when the full terms of the armis-
tice between Favre and Bismarck became known.
Art students who take an interest in the South
Kensington School of Painting, will be glad to hear
that Mr. Collinson, the artist who is connected with
the school, and who has of late years been very successful
in gaining places on the academy walls for his pictures,
is engaged on a large work of art, which he intends to
"send in" for the forthcoming exhibition at an early
date.

Much agitation has arisen, as my readers are no doubt
aware, in the metropolis, in consequence of the alarming
spread of small-pox. I however have found that the deaths,
though taking place in large numbers in the west end, are
confined to the poorer classes, in whose familiei some, if
not all, of the members have not undergone vaccination.
The malady, moreover, has made its most serious ravages
among children under ten. One of the most significant
facts confirmatory of the prevalence of the smallpox is
that the new hospital at Brixton, opened only on Satur-
day, was quite filled with patients by Monday evening.
A friend has informed me that every one anywhere near
the hospital has taken the precaution of undergoing a
precautionary process, and one medical man made £95 in a
morning this week by vaccinations. A curious story is
going round London about a Surrey Regiment of
Volunteers who all got vaccinated in their drill-shed at
the liaMe time. The Men who tell the story say the