The Sun.
London, England, 1847-05-06 00:00:00

MONTHLY TRADE CIRCULAR.

Messrs. Ferguson and Taylor, of Manchester. have
issued the following Monthly Trade Circular, of Prices
Current, which deserves careful attention:—
" When it had been ascertained that the failure in
the potato crop, and the deficiency of yield of certain
cereals last harvest, amounted in money value to a loss
by the nation of more than twenty millions sterling in
one year, it became evident to all who reasoned on the
matter, that such a calamity must inevitably derange
our monetary affairs, and lead to a temporary pros-
tration, at least, of our manufacturing industry, and
some embarrassment to our ordinary commercial enter-
prise. It was clear that this deficiency in the native
supply of the food of the people, would have, to a
large extent, to be met by importations from foreign
sources, and whether such supplies were paid for by
commodities or money, the nation would be impover-
ished in its resources to the extent of the deficiency in the
returns of her own fields ; since those importations
would not be, as in the case of an abundant harvest, an
increment to previously existent wealth, but, on the con-
trary, would have to be balanced by a draft on past
savings. and the future proflucts of our industry. With
this fact helot., us. we anticipated a depression in the
home demand fur manufae.tires, as a cons,quet,ce of the
advanced cost of food, and f?tesaw that a stringency
could be experienced in monetary affairs as soon as the
exchanges turned in favour of those countries whence
supplies of bread-stuffs were being imported. '1 he
crisis foretold by some of the ablest I, ad, rs of public
opini ,n has at length arrived, and, we api•rehend, too
suddenly to many parties who are largely engaged in
the regulation of banking facilities, to be calmly con-
si 'ered. The evils against which provision is to be made
we conceive has been too much magnified, and ward of
confidence has grown out of excitment, and added
to the embarrassments of the time. The extent
of demand fur specie for foreign remittance and
the duration of unfavourat.le exchanges have, we think,
been over-estimated ; whilst, on the other band, the re-
sources of the country, and the healthful and legitimate
basis on which its trade has been conducted for some
time past, have not been allowed their due weight.
Although a high rate of interest appears to be inevitable,
as well as desirable, in order to correct the adverse
balance of trade, still we believe there exists no reason,
in the present condition of affairs, or in the probabilities
of the future, for that extraordinary stringency in dis-
counts, and almost (as we have heard) capricious rejec-
tion of first class securities, which have taken place
during the past week in London. The effect of the
ightness in the Money-market has completely paralyzed
.he trade of this district during the_ past week.

..... _
Buyers are unwilling to extend their liabilities,
and, therefore contract their operations within
the most limited compass, confining their investments
principally to mere parcels for assorting stocks. Spin-
ners and manufacturers, on the other hand, viewing no
probability of an immediate revival of demand, are re-
ducing production as much as possible, by working
short time, or closing their mills. It is a benevolent
feeling which induces many to continue their work-
people in employment, during three or four days per
week, at a loss, rather than add to the privations
these poor people already unavoidably endure, by
closing their factories altogether. In the meantime
stocks are kept from accumulating, and so far a wiser
policy prevails now than obtained during the depression
of the years of 1838 and 1841. No heavy stocks
hang o‘er the market to depress prices much below
their natural level, nor are foreign markets being
glutted by shipments made by needy manufacturers
under advances. We hear of no manufacturers
endeavouring to force sales in an overdone market
by cheapening production at the cost of the
operative;—the rate of wages for labour is maintained,
hut the market is not over supplied by its products. We
believe no former period of depression has found the
business transactions of both markets and manufacturers
placed on a sounder foundation; there is no undue specu-
:ation,lor:extension of trading to be corrected ; and as
stocks are comparatively moderate both abroad and at
home, the inference is fairly deducible, that as soon as
the present straitness in money matters is withdrawn, a
lucrative trade will follow. With respect to the future
rule of prices, we are inclined to believe they must be
considerably higher than at present as soon as the pre-
sent monetary pressure shall have passed away. At the
present rates of cotton, it is an undoubted fact, spinners
and manufacturers cannot continue production, and it
does not appear likely that the prices of that staple will
speedily decline. Although we doubt the accuracy of
the conclusion drawn from the falling off in the arrivals
of cotton at the ports of the United States, (which may
he occasioned by the accumulation of stock at the sea-
board, scarcity of storage, high rents and rates of insur-
ance, advanced freights, scarcity of shipping, &c.,—_-silwien
and
favour of retaining supplies m
cannot doubt that so long as suppliest aleel
opt.
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the in tereiotrdaser
year's
uncertainty exists as to the ultimate
a improvementeariaelyheld here will be
of demand.
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To correct the aedmvaard'
edwreatehsesoef cinottomna,
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demand,
of to .
of 177 mills, employing 41,000 hands, 52 mills, employ-
ing 12,500 hands, working short time, and 24
mills, eniploying 7,500 hands, entirely stopped ; in
Ashton-under-Lyne, Stalybridge, Dukinfield, Mossley,
Fairfield, &c., out of 211 mills, of 6,479 horse power,
employing 27,500 hands, there are 4,301 horse power,
with 18,032 hands, only working four days per week ;
in Stockport, out of 55 pains of 3,648 horse power, and
employing 14,592 hands, there are 40 mills, of 3,165
horse power, employing 12,660 hands, that are only
working three days a week, and 15 mills of 423 horse
power, and 1,692 hands, are entirely stopped ; in Bol-
ton, out of 53 mills, of 1,425 horse power, employing
7,070 hands, there are 33 mills, of 842 horse power, and
employing 4,250 hands, working, on an average, 4i days
per week ; in Oldham, Crompton, R,,yton, Chaddertun,
Lees, and neighbourhood, out of 182 mills, above
100 employing about 17,000 hands, arc working only six
and eight hours per day, and about 12 mills, employing
about 2,000 hands, are stopped altogether; in Rochdale,
Royton, Todmorden, Whitworth, and neighbourhood.
out of 205 mills,
13,0
mills, with ll hand, employing
wtoor,
koi6n4g h a n
shortd s , there
time,
mills, with 3,141 hands, entirely stopped. In Blackburn,
Preston, and Wigan, "short time" and stoppages are ex-
tending. It is contemplated by many who are now run-
ning full time to stop entirely, for a short term at Whit-
suntide. This course cannot fail to influence prices
eventually, as production must now be greatly below con-
sumption; and as stocks arebeing cleared off, both abroad
and at home, as soon as ever a revival of demand sets in,
the value of manufactures must advance. Good harvest
prospects, as the season progresses, would speedily give
allinaatioll t 9 business, and au impulse to prices.