The Express.
London, England, 1861-08-22 00:00:00

THE SUPPLY OF COTTON.

The following important circular, dated yester-
day, hug been forwarded by Mesons. Neill Brothers,
of Manchester to their correspondent' :

11, Cross-street, Manchester, August 21.
Dear Sir,—Since the date of our circular of 22nd ult., the
stock of cotton at Liverpool bag shown a steady declitie.
The quantity of American then held in warehouse and afloat
was 860,000 bales. It is now 639,000 bales. For one week
the spinners increased their stock by about 30,000 bales.
This was about used tip in the succeeding three weeks.
They are again therefore buying more freely. During the
past four weeks and four days the takings from Liver-
pool for consumption have been 180,000 bales, or
about .t 9,000 per week. Adding 2,000 per week for
Glasgow, X:c., would make the total consumption of Ameri-
can cotton for the kingdom 41,000 per week, which was
precisely our estimate. Taking consumption and export
together, the figures have been 210,000 bales, against
216,000 last year—a very slight discrepancy. In the
remaining months of last year (24th August till tsth
December) consumption absorbed 775,000 bales, and export
68,000 bales, in K 11843,000 bales. It is impossible that the
same rate of absorption should be maintained this year;
for the whole available supply is only 639,000
bales, without any prospect of its being replenished
before the close of the year. Yet the supply of American
cotton will, no doubt, be sufficiently economised to enable
it to last till that date, or longer, by the gradual advance in
price throwing a larger proportion of the consumption on
Surat, of which the supply is happily unusually large ; and
by a limitation of the hours of labour, there being, we on.
derstand, a pretty general resolve on the part of the trade
not to "light up" at all this winter—or, at least, so long
as the deficiency in the supply of cotton continues.
With regard to the probable continuance of the
war, we have merely to confirm what we said in
our last. Many thought then that the North was
not in earnest in the war, and others that their immense
preparations would ensure them an easy victory.
The opinion which we ventured to give, that "the
government and people of the North vastly underrate the
difficulties before them, and equally over-rate their own
strength and endurance," has had a very emphatic con-
firmation in the result of the first great battle. The be-
lievers in an early conclusion of the war, however, AU/
cling to the same ides, but upon the very opposite
grounds. The general idea now is that the North will be
forced to yield by the demoralisation of her army, the
impossibility of raising mosey, and the evident futility of
the attempt to conquer the South. We beg to caution our
friends against being led away by this kind of argument into
any hope of an early peace. Money never was so abundant
in the States as it is at present. The deposits held by the
New York bankers at last accounts amounted to 93,687,000
doll., against an average of 77,721,000 at the corresponding
dates for the past five years ; and the specie or bullion to
46,900,000 dole., against an average of 21,249,000. The diffi-
culty is to employ the money in s►fe securities, and, as this
difficulty is increasing, it is probable that the high terms
which the government will be ready to pay, will tempt ca.
pitelista to take the earlier loans. We have no doubt that
the reasons now urged for an immediate peace will ulti.
nudely bring it about. The North will have to
learn the limited extent of her powers as compared with
the gigantic task she has undertaken. One and perhaps
two defeats will be insufficient to reverse the false education
of a life time. Many lessons will probably be necessary,
and, meantime, and• success the Northern troops may obtain
will again inflame the national vanity, and the lessons of
adversity will need to be learned over again. More effect
will probably be produced by sufferings at home—by the
ruin of the higher classes, and pauperisation of the lower,
and by the general absorption of the floating capital of the
country. But this will take time to show itself, and to
work its effect in the creation of a pease party strong enough
to have weight with the government. In the meantime the
war must go on, as there is not the smallest chance of the
South submitting.
That the latter is preparing for a protracted war is
evidenced by the following documents :