The Express.
London, England, 1861-06-17 00:00:00

NRITA II! I A.

TIM IrrelW. THY. ri lAT TYRANT. Tbr Lillie Wonder
Mos Latin rim...b..- Manisa( by Mr. W. M. rarkinand and
Mr. 0. ntrlney. —1411. Y .0 . %ult Al.vhialos
Tama& and a. LUIS. —Airl VISOR:NILS MY ST RA.+bU l 11.;.

If ion wtlLti AT LHXDON MUDD&

TENT DAT —U..rn.ng. blialovii: Vb. 55 IS.
Vb. •Itairsess. Vb. :air.

LONDON, MONDAY, JUNE 17.

I r we may jutli;e front the report& received
during the last fete months from the various de-
partments of husliii.s througheut the kingdom,
there will he LIU Conlithilee in trade until the
Connie of affairs in nitric% becomes morn clearly
defined. Tie American revolution may be divided
into three dieticrt Thu first is past: it
was that of del ute and secession, with some
prospect of a compromise all the while. We are
now in the second st3gu—that of settled hostility
between the two *adieus of the Union, extensive
preparations fur a deadly struggle, and mutual
njection of every idea of arram,ement. Should
the revolution pass into the third stage, it will of
course he that of actual war. Now, it frequently
happens that the anticipation of a calamity
has a mare pernicious effect upon trade than its
actual omurnintrs. When the storm bursts upon
the hark of tonne next she rides through it with
safety and comparative ease, provided everything
has betas made trim and taut. It is just pos-
sible that, when armies of brothers rush against
each other in America, urged by that deadliest of
all animosities--ea• cial hate—trade, long prepared
for the spectacle, may view it calmly. But at pre-
sent there can be no confidence that such will be the
case. Thu interests at stake are vaster than is
generally acknowledged. When the climax of the
Jrisis is reached, we bliall see our way more clearly.
Trade will I:ri relesised from its attitude of ex-
pectancy, which incaus inaction. It will be some
encouragement evil to know the wont that can
happen. Meanwhile, the depressing effects upon our
home industry are observable at every turn. "It is but
" • small satisfaction to Lancashire manufacturers,"
observes • sensible commercial circular, after re-
counting the decrease in the exports of goods to
America, "if an increase should take place in war
" requirements and cannon-balls." These cer-
tainly are not the means by which an adverse ba-
lance of trade can be sot straight. The burthen of
the accounts from America is comprised in the
expressive remark that "Economy marks every
" one's habits ; and every yard of prints—let
" alone silks"—(note the difference between what
is necessary and what is luxurious) "that can be
" dispensed with is left on the hands of the store-
" keepers." If America is going to pour her
wealth into tho bottomless gulf of war, she has
indeed need to economise in every other direction.
She does well to wear " prints" and leave off
silks, for she will have occasion for all her re-
sources. As regards the complete disorganization
which prevails in every branch of trade in Ame-
rica, interesting testimony may be gathered by the
most cursory glance at the commercial reports.
" Considerable accommodation," says one n-
owt New York account, " has to be granted to
" the jobbing trade" (a branch closely connected
with British manufactures) "both of the city and
" all parts of the country ; and perhaps it would
" not be far wide of the truth to state that nearly
" as much paper has to be extended as is paid at
" maturity. Unweleomo as such a course is
" to all parties, it nowt yet be allowed to be •
" much better way of meeting the state of affairs
" than by compelling absolute failure and liquid*-
" tion ; for the IJ3-ies in realising on a large
" number of bankrupt estates in the present state
" of trade would be enormous." This is why we
bear comparativdy little of commercial failures in
America. Many houses practically make default
on their engagements ; yet, by an agreement for
forbearance, which is of necessity imposed upon
all, are not formally driven into bankruptcy. But
although the American community may agree
&moo.: themselves to waive the observance of the
ordinary mere:iota.) practice, the pressure falls
perhaps all the more heavily for this reason upon
their foreign creditors. Houses in England and
France must coutinuu to meet their engagements
at maturity, no mitt r ii their American debtors
do not pay. This is another illustration of the
consistency with which America sets upon her new
policy of drawing in as much as possible and
partici,. with as little as possible. She receives,
but dues not pay, eaten she is actually obliged.
The manner iu which the American houses in this
country have borne the pressure says much for
their sagacity and stability. The lest circular of
.711,1111011. Du FAT and Go., of Manchester, observes
that the Frmich silk bonen are suffering consider.
ably, and that " the losses at Lyons alone by
" failures in America are estimated at 2,000,0001.
" sterling up to the present moment." Such
being the condition of affairs, our merchants
would be demented were they not to narrow their
Trans-Atlantic dentines to the smallest possible
compass. A trade:mum who wishes to maim •
lie lug does not fore:, his wares and his capital upon
customers who he knows are perfectly unable to
pay him. The didocation of trade being thus ex-
nem°, and the consumption of European commo-
dities in America being paralysed, whilst England
continues to take heavy amounts of American
breadstuffit, can any pence of average intelligence
see anything very " perplexing" in the low level of
the American exchange f There is another matter
affecting the AL:ericaii exchanges which does not
weak to have received due attention. The S,sith
declares Bills of Exchange, Promissory Notes, and
Specie to ho contraband of war. None of these
articles are to pass between it and the North. Thu
two sections being av“wed enevii-s, repudiation of
debts is one of the weapons in the armoury
of the former. Apart from the difficulty which

this entails upon the North, and which thence I
reacts upon ourselves, inasmuch as the North
cannot pay what it owes us, there is this addi-
tional consideration, that the channel through which
our balancer with the South have uniformly been
settled is completely choked up. We have both
paid the South and received from the South
' through Now York, the banking centre of the
i Union. Thu whole of tho bill business being at
an end, we must now settle our transactions with
the South for the t part by means of hard
cash. This causes an additional pressure upon
our specie reserves, for it takes. a vast deal of
metal to do what may be done by means of a few
bits of paper.
These are only a few of tho more prominent
points tali:mg out of the American Revolution
which go to paralyse trade and to disturb the
money market. Weighty though they are, we
have not yet referred to the most powerful of all—
namely, the fear respecting the cotton supply.
Happily, we are relieved of immediate alarm
on this score, owing to the fact that the last
season's crop came forward in the usual way just
before the American troubles began to assume a
serious aspect. Whether the South, with charac-
teristic calculation, restrained itself from formally
declaring the rupture until the season's cotton
business had been settled, wo will not stop to in-
quire. Thu fact remains that the estimated stock
in Liverpool is now 1,130,210 bales, against
1,334,600 bales at the corresponding period
of last year. The money value is, per-
haps, about ten millions and three quarters
Isterling, against twelve millions and a half last
' year, when the stock was an unusually large one.
There is, therefore, plenty of cotton for our imme-
diate wants. It is additionally satisfactory to
know that the planting for the next crop has been
performed as usual. It is said that, in connexion
with the long-matured plans of the Secessionists,
one-eighth less of ground has been planted with
cotton than last year, that eighth having been
made available for the production of food, in an-
ticipation of the lugs of supplies of grain from the
North. Should the next season's crop of cotton
be one-eighth less than the last ono it will entail
no inconvenience upon our manufacturers, for the
eighth which may bo wanting from America will
assuredly bo supplied from the other parts of the
world, where the cultivation of cotton is now being
pushed forward with a degree of energy never before
known. Neither is there any reason to antici-
pate that the next great process in the cotton
culture—the picking—will ho interfered with.
Whatever their white masters may be doing,
it will bo politic to keep the negroes at
their work ; for what is • better preservative
against mischief than steady occupation f These
are some of the considerations which help to keep
the cotton market calm, and to relieve
the uneasiness of our manufacturers. Seve-

ral months have to elapse before the
commencement of the next shipping season, and
there is a disposition to grasp at the hope that
some arrangement will be arrived at in the in-
terval. But the stock of cotton in this conntry is
now at about its maximum, and will soon begin
to run down, as manufacturers mako the usual
draughts upon it. The nearer we get to the next
shipping season the keener will become the alarm,
unless a happy change should intervene. The
point to which discussion is now principally turn-
ing is not as to whether there will be a cotton
crop in America, for a considerable yield of the
staple is already, humanly speaking, provided for,
but—will next season's crop be permitted to come
forward ? Should the war go on, this question
will assume vast dimensions. It seems very
difficult iudeed to realise the ides of a cotton
famine in this country, and of starvation in our
cotton districts, the result solely of political
complications. Yet both the contending par-
ties are now unquestionably doing all in their
power to prevent the transit of cotton ; and,
though their efforts are of comparatively little im-
portance now, in the season between the crops,
they may have the gravest possible bearing upon
our industry when it holds out its bands for the
next season's supply. The North has established
a blockade of most of the Southern ports, and
declares its intention to make the blockade general,
permanent, and efficient. If the latter condition
be complied with, the law of nations requires that
it shall bo respected by every other maritime power.
The Confederate Congress on its part, pursuing
its policy of cutting off all connexion with
the North, and especially desirous of depriving
the Northern cotton manufacturers and operatives
of the raw material, has just passed an Act pro-
hibiting the shipment of cotton from the Confede-
rate States except through the non-blockaded sea-
porta. The dilemma is thus fairly established.
We have profound faith in the energy and in-
genuity of trade. We believe that, if a cry arises
for cotton in this country, both these qualities will
be marvollowily stimulated to satisfy it. A por-
tion of the requisite supply will come forward
from perfectly unexpected quarters, and through
perfectly unexpected, and possibly irregular chan-
nels. Should the price of cotton rise, too, the
consumption will be checked, and lees will be
wanted, partly because substitutes will to a
certain extent bo brought into play. But, al-
-1 lowing in the largest possible degree for every
compensating and remedial influence, we can yet
look forward to a time by no means diAant when
the pressure will be very severe. In these cit.-
cumstances many people are asking what are the
calculations of the men of Manchester? Upon
what expedient are they relying, seeing that their
activity in evoking the resources of cotton-growing
countries other than America is anything but
answerable to their interest in the supply of the
staple 1 Surely with a knowledge of the sympathies
of their countrymen, and especially of the aide cer-
tain to be taken, if necessary, by that reserve of
moral opinion which rarely intervenes iu
politica, but never intervenes in vain, they
cannot be thinking that when the stress
comes they can make use of the Foreign-
office and persuade the Government of the day to
violate the rules of international law at the cost
of our neutrality, making the great free American
peoplo our enemies for ever, and covering our-
eel% es with disgrace throughout the civilized world.
The good sense with which Manchester conducts its
affairs forbids such a supposition. But still the
apathy of its principal manufacturers with regard to
tie supply of cotton is most mysterious.

('ITT ATI VI. Ft2ITIVAL—WO Rte re-
quimial to iumwaineu that a banquet has boss arranged to I
t..ho plow% st the Loialori Tiorrni. Ilishaputatinstreet, on
Fraley, Joao is a, with the City of London
',.nsurvative I:,aiaration Aria:W.6a: John U. Nubian],
Pm., M.P., aril: niku U. chair. The lilt of stewards
includes Om 11.0004 of Mir ittaßoril Noethrote, M.P.,
Via"""l higroten, M.l'., Air F. Kelly. M.P., Mir F. Slat*
Mr. Seymour FitatornilJ. M.P., Sir K. (Alnico, &a We
have SO 11,411. t tholle will bee a atroieg Muster of 001:10WV111.
the 0ven...,", brtb tins. .00nerted with the City
awl otherwi.• old.
Tun BALAAR AT k rt4.41N4 Molt. —Tier Royal
111., Koval
Ilprhnes (1.
] I,lana, and her Rola! 'lngham, OM Primus Luise,
thu hasaar hold iu behalf of the huildnul fool „f
the of Art, the now rumour Alljuiniux the
Kesplan:tmt Muansum. at an rorly loon on itatuntiy
inotwing, awl solo esteaslirwourrhaiira at ovary Tho
bassos will baps to-day sad to-inutrow frooaday.)