The Northern Daily Times.
Liverpool, Merseyside, England, 1856-07-01 00:00:00

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The comparative supply and consumption of Cotton hail
of late, assumed an interest that renders some conclusicn
desirable, by which these relations can be determined, if
only proximately. The elements which enter into the so-
lution of this question are very complex. The relative
costs of cultivation in different countries; the tenure of
land and the revenue system of those parts of British India
which form, next to the United States, the largest source
of supply ; the state of inter-communication between the
Cotton regions and the seacoast; these, with other consti-
tuents of the problem, render it one of much intricacy.
The subject naturally assumes three divisions : 1. The com-
parative rate of iticreese in the supply and consumption,
at antecedert periods. 2. The comparative rate of future
increase. 3. The causes which facilitate or retard that
increase. It is necessary to this enquiry that we should
embrace a period, or periods, of safliment length to exclude
the influence of disturbing causes of partial or temporary
operation. Decennial periods are most convenient for this
purpose. In an article prepared by us and published in
the Charleston Courier, May 31, 1845, the history of the
Cotton trale is traced back to 1800, divided into periods of
fifteen years, and brought down to 1845.
The results reached in that article were, that the growth
had, down to 1845, outrun the consumption. The annual
average increase in the growth was a fraction over 61, per
per cent., embracTng the period from about 1830 to 1845.
The annual average increase in the consumption was a
fraction under 6 per cent. The growth had, therefore,
xneeded the consumption down to 1845; but from indica-
tions of the gradual diminution of the ratio of supply of the
United States Cotton, and the steady, regular ii=erease in
the consumption generally, the following conclusions were
drawn : 1. That in three years the equilibrium between
supply and consumption would be recovered. 2. That in ,
1845 we had reached the maximum rate of production in
the United States.—Both branches of this prediction were
verified. It is unnecessary therefore to ascend further back
in our comparison than 1845.
From the above table it will be seen that the dispropor-
tion between the supply and consumption between 1845
and 1855, was very great, the annual average increase in
the former being 9-77 per cent., and in the latter 16-64 per
cent. The large aggregate increase in the supply naturally
led to a diminution in the ratio. The consumption has
no other check, supposing prices not to much enhanced,
than inability in the power to purchase and consume.
The productive powers are restrained by a number of
causes—by a bad tenure of land, by heavy taxation, and

and imperfect supply of labour.' We have, in the above
comparison, taken the number of bales, and not allowed for
the increased weight, as we are not comparing periods of
growth, exerpr for the purpose of illustrating the supply as
c unpared with the consumption.
2. FRoBNBLR RATE OF FUTURE SUPPLY AND CONSUMP-
TION.—We have seen that the rate of increase as regards
the growth from 1845 to 1855 has been 9-77 per cent. per
annum, while the rate of consumption has been 16-64 per
cent. annually for the same period, making a difference in
their rates of increase of 6-87 per cent. per annum. Fol-
lowing out the comparison for the next decennial period
between 1855 and 1865, taking the above table as the basis
of the estimates, the following is the result :
Taking the table of eleven years and reducing it to ten
years, omitting the first year (1845), which perhaps is the
better and right plan, would give a total supply of 31,613

or per year

And total consumption

35,354

or per year
Or an increase, compared with 1845, for supply, when it
was 2,855, of 306 when it was 2,878, for consump'n 657

or 10-72 per c. or 18-72 per c.
Such an average for ten years, carried out for the next
ten years, would give, in 1863, the fallowing figures :
Production. Consumption.
1855 3,583 3,909
1865 4,202 7,317
Taking the 11 year table, total production annually 3,133
for ten years, would be . •
Increase, 9.77 per o. ... ....

34,391

Total consumption of 3,357, for ten years, would be 53,570
Increase 16-64 per c.

39,156
Or an increase of consumption over supply of 4,765,000,
or an annual deficit of 476,500 bales.

In the preceding figures we have not taken into view the
distribution of the pi e:ont large crop, which forms a proper
supplement to this branch of the enquiry. The growth of
this is in excess of any previous year nearly 300,000 bales.
There is every probability of its being entirely consumed,
leaving, at the end of the year 1855, as reduced a stock
every where, as was ever known in the history of the Cotton
trade.

3. THE CAUSES IVHICII FACILITATE OR RETARD CON-
SUMPTION AND SUPPLY,—The interior of Europe is daily
enlarging the sphere of Cotton consumption. Russia and
Germany are requiring larger supplies. The war has
widened the market for British Co:ton fabrics in the Levant.
The people living on the shores of the Danube and Black
Sea, having, since the freedom of those seas has been
secured, a vent for their raw products, will bnome exten-
sive consumers of Cotton goods. These circumstances must
give a yearly increased stimulus to the consumption of
Cotton. The causes which temporarily derange the relations
of demand and supply, neutralise each other in decennial
and sometimes shorter periods. Short crops and high
prices, which limit, and excessive supplies, with low prices,
which stimulate consumption, cannot countervail in their
operation the influence of that general law which regulates
and controls the value of an article of such general con-
sumption as Cotton. The circle of increase cannot be
contracted except in the failure of purchasing power by
those who consume textile iatrics, while the producine,

ability of those who grow this staple finds a boundary in
the diminution of labour adap,e.l to its cultivation.
The question of future supply is more complex. Its two
great sources aro the United States and British India. In
the former as regards land, one of the elements of productive
power, there is an absence of monopoly. The land is easy
of acquisition and transfer ; settlement is rapid. It has
to sust.i.in few burdens. In the latter it is subject to a fixed
tenure, one-half of the produce is engrossed for rent. It is
cultivated in a slovenly manner. With the aid of British
capital and skill its capabilities will be as fully developed as
consists with the artificial and obstructive arrangements of
an eld country inhabited by a semi barbarous people. Still

that region has increased its portion of the general supply'
40 per cent. within five years. It is thought that the whole
of British India will be intersected by railr ads in five
years, bringing its most remote inland districts in com—
munication with its ports of exportation.
In the other element of productive power, labour
India has greatly the advantage of the United Stat
its density of population. The low price of labour affords a
compensation for She heavy burdens borne bc- the 1,-;m1,
im
the form of an exorbitant rent or tax. In the United Sates
we will soon have reached the limit to a re ids- command of
labour for the Cotton culture. A more expensive outlay"
gradually encroaches on capital devoted to that cult ure.
The price of field hands has risen nearly 100 per cent. in
five years. The ratio of increase in the slave pa;-mle.tion is
lessening. In the decennial periods ending 1830, 1840 and
1850, the annual average of increase was 41 and 3a
per cent, for these periods respectively. We thus see that
the causes which limit production have been pr: dually
operating for the last ten years, while consumption has been
as progressively enlarging its boundaries, and that while the
maximum rate of production has been long since attained,
the consumption has no assignable point of limitation, but
extends with the expansion of general commerce and the
spread of civilisation.
Charleston, June 1, 1856.

IMPERIAL PARLIAMENT

HOUSE OF LORDS.-MONDAY,

The LORD CHANCELLOR took his sea; on the Wool

NEAPOLITAN AFFAIRS.
In reply to a question from Lord Lvtgon URET
e Earl of CLARENDON declined to
res;,ecting the affairs of Nanle*, as the correspode,
vet closed. fie believed that thr: I,renc
-- desirous to withdraw th-ir tro•

at five

Ice ary

.nd that the Empero

c,untry was not yet t.
trian governments were (au_
sible, from the Pap it territory,
disposed to withdraw his troops from Rome when
division was organised.
rho Bankruptcy (Scotland) Bill was read a third time.]
TIIFI OATS! OF ABJURATION (NO. 2) BILL.
The;Farl of DERBY w.thdrew the Oath of Al•jur Ain't Amendment
13.11, and on his Lordship's motion, the order of the day for the
third reading WAS read and discharged.