The Express.
London, England, 1861-09-09 00:00:00

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LUNDIPY, 310NIP:IY, SEPT. ft.

TO OUR READERS.

SPORTING LXTELLIGENCE.

A Lite edition of thu Express is 'published every
eveniag during the racing 1113310111, containing the
results of Um lLty's moor.

I r trade is to receive any stimulus during the
closing months of the year, it will arise from two
causer—Lilo nil:dimming of a harvest which,
though probably below an average, is ex-
tremely satisfactory, and the important fall iu
the value of money. It is gratifying to ob-
serve, as a partial compensation for the gene-
rally dull coneition of the export trade, that Ulu
internal business of the country has begun to pre-
sent indica:io-is of revival. On this point the re-
ports from t.iu hardware, woollen, hosiery, lace,
and linen districts concur. The prospects of what
is termed the home trade, as distinguished from
the foreign, are beginning to be regarded more
hopefully. This is very natural, fur thedepression
which has prevailed in the home trade originated
mainly in thu straitened circumstances of the agri-
cultural interest, and will be relieved to sonic
extent now that that interest is once more
placed in funds. The country shopkeeper
arms • bettor chance of getting his shelves
cleared, and of being able to discharge his obliga-
tions to the wholesale dealer, and to get in •
fresh stock. There is, we tsar, • large accumula-
tion of arming of this nature, testifying both to
the embarrassments of the retailer and to the
pressure upon the wholesale trader. The increase
in the number of small insolvencies, and of small
bills which are nut met at maturity, proves how
seriously the adversity of the agricultural interest
has ailectcd the community at large. The ne-
cesaity for economy, which has given the check to
consumption, has not yet passed away, so that
the home trade is not likely to experience a sudden
rebound, but it is very encouraging to believe that
the corner has been turned, and that • moderate
revival will probably take place in this important
department of business. We fear, however, that,
both as regards the home and the foreign demand,
the great cotton interest of the kingdom is likely
to remain in an exceptionally anxious position,
owing to the uncertainty respecting the supply of
the raw material.

With regard to the prospects of the money
market, the hopes lately entertained have become
stronger. The Bank rate of discount, which in
February last reached 8 per cent., and which
was still as high as 6up to the beginning of last
month, has now fallen to 4 per cent., to the sur-
prise of many observers, who thought so rapid a
movement too much to eapect so soon after a bad
harvest. They have accordingly been looking
apprehensively to the action upon the foreign ex-
changes, in the expectation that an unfavourable
c►ange would occur, that gold would begin to
flow out as soon as the pressure involved in a
high rate of discount was removed, and that the
Lank of England would soon be in a position to
advance their rate again. Nothing of the kind,
however, has taken place. Although the value
of money in the general market remains'
at the lowest point to which it has
yet fallen, the exchanges are firm, and at a
generally satisfactory level, so that gold is still
accumulating here. There are two broad features
which stand out pretty boldly at the present
moment. The first concerns the import trade. It
was very generally apprehended that the great in-
crease which has taken place in the imports this
year would caner the balance of trade to remain
largely against us foe • considerable time to come,
leading to a sustained ran: of gold. The fact
that, directly the imports have slackened (we need
not recapitulate the figures given in former
articles), nearly all the gold imported has been re-
tained here, indicates satisfactorily enough that the
large ►mport& of the first six months of the year
were paid for as fast as they came in, and that we
are free from liability on that score. The second
point to which we wish to call attention relates to
the export trade. Were we to affirm boldly that
the decline which is now taking place in the ex-
ports, and which amounted to nearly 20 per
cent. in the month of July, is calculated to have
a favourable effect on the exchanges, we should
probably be suspected of unsoundness, for it is
very natural to object that, as the foreign trade of
a nation is adjusted upon the principle of payment I
being made or received in specie according as the
general balance lies upon the aide of imports or
exports, any heavy decrease in the latter must
throw the balance wrong, make the exchanges
adverse, and carry gold out. Nevertheless, we '
commit ourselves to that position, and maintain
that the decrease now witnessed in the export
trade means not only relief to the discount
market, from the decrease in the amount of bills'
admit, but also a favourable effect, that is, for the
time, upon the foreign exchanges. The improve-
ment in the latter arises from the fact that, directly I
we begin to send out fewer exports, for which we
give credit, we import less of the raw material of
theme exports, for which, as a rule, we pay cash.l
The result is that the exchanges, particularly wi.h
near countries, such as the Continent, are moved
in our favour by the diminution in our imports of
raw material from them, whilst we continue at
the same time to receive the returns for the large
exports previously made. For example, in 1856
and 1857 we sent enormous consignments of goods
to every quarter of the world, in great part, as
usual, on credit. At the end of 1857 there was •
commercial crisis, and all through 1858 the exports
fell off greatly. It might be argued that
this would put the balance of trade against us, yet
the fact was that during 1858 gold accumulated
in this country to an extent scarcely ever before
known. Why was this t Simply because in 1858,
this country, partially suspending fresh transactions
with its fore "n customers, was content to receive
the returns for the large consignments made in