The Express.
London, England, 1868-06-11 00:00:00

TEE RECENT PANIC IN THE CORN TRADE.

There is no sunshine without shadow. The
gloriously fine weather with which we have been
favoured during the last few weeks, hastening the
growth of the crops, and enabling myriads of our
artisan population to more completely enjoy their
great summer holiday, has been reductive of con-
sternation and dismay in Mark-lane, and has filled
many minds with gloom and apprehension. During
the past three weeks the British corn trade has ex-
perienced severalmiolcat changes, almost partaking
of the character of a revolution, occasioned by the
irresistible fear of s corning extensive fall in prior*.
In the import trade there has also been a heavy
panic, the like of which has not been experienced
for yews in that important branch of commerce.

The first day of the present month proved a
kind of Black Monday to those whose business
it is to buy and sell *ere on • large scale.
Prices were merely nominal, and business Game to
a complete standstill. On that ominous day the
actual price of several kinds of wheat suddenly
declined from 14s, to 16s. per quarter. The effect
was astounding. The corn markets throughout the
country instantaneously became seriously agitated,
and everywhere dealers were anxious to sell out at
almost any price, but the buyers remained dis-
trustfully aloof. Abroad the startling news was
quickly telegraphed to every wheat-exporting port,
to every leading city and town, thereby producing
corresponding excitement and depression of prizes,
besides checking the further export of grain to this
country. For a time, enterprise became com-
pletely paralyzed, and neither buyers nor sellers
to know what to do. As the true state of
appearaii became known, the panic gradually abated,
and prime began to resume their old position.
The panic, which was as unexpected as it was sud-
den, originated wholly in exaggerated anticipa-
tions of a full and early harvest, which led to a
hastily adopted idea that a heavy andabnost ruinous
decline in prizes would speedily take place. But,
although cheap bread is one of the greatest con-
ceivable national blessings, there exists too much
reason for fearing that, even were the coming bar-
east to be one of the most productive ever known
to us, the high rate of prices which hes ruled
during the last two years will not, for some
months at least, be materially altered. The real
effect of an abundant harvest will probably
be to prevent further rises in price rather
than to bring about any marked decline.
It must be remembered that a succession
of deficient harvests in Europe has tended to
empty the greet continental granaries, to &rai-
ned' the stocks held by dealers, end to raise
everywhere the price of wheat to a point which
reminds us of the old monopolist times, be-
fore the doctrines of free trade had achieved their
majestic triumphs. Daring the week ending May
30, 1864, the average price of wheat in this coun-
try was 395. 6d. In 1866 it bad limn to 418.11 d.;
in 1866 it was 475. ed. ; in 1867 it rose yet fur-
ther to 665. 6d. ; and during the corresponding
week this year it was 72a. 3d. Had the old corn-
laws remained unrepealed, bread would have
been absolutely at a famine price, and the ooun-
tsy filled with suffering and discontent. As it is,
the supplies from abroad have hitherto prevented
wheat being so dear as it must otherwise have be-
come. Still there is little reason for hoping that
theprice of wheat will exhibit much of a downward
tendency this year. Such an assertion may be
unpalatable to many, bet it is better to oompre-
heid the reel nature of oar positiose—however
discouraging and uncomfortable it may appear—
as we shall then be enabled to decide with far
more certainty what course we ought really to
pursue. Granted that the harvest of 1868 proves
unusually good, that it is heavy in the ear, and is
safely stacked ; still, a very considerable propor-
tion of it will be required to replenish our now
almostexhausted granaries, andtomake secure pro-
vision against the possibility of a bad harvest in
1889. It is the same abroad. On the continent
the wheat accumulations of the last two or three
years have well nigh disappeared, and will have
to be replaced by decks procured during the Rre-
sent year. Consequently, should the coming
harvest prove ever so abundant, it is not
likely to produce any material or continued de-
cline in price. But are our harvest prospecti so
very good? Are they so very encouraging ?
Seldom has the wheat-plant been In ear so early as
during the present season. It is thirty-four years
since we have had a corresponding forward de-
velopment of our wheat crops, and should no un-
favourable circumstances, intervene we may look

for the commencement of harvest operation ln our
southern districts about the second week in July,
an unusually early period. So far matters are
promising, but from abroad we have less hopeful
accounts. In Prance complaints are being made
that the growing crops are being damaged by
drought and excessive heat. In the south of
Italy a contrary cause has been at work, the
development of harvest operations having been re-
tarded by excessive rain ; while in Hungary, the
Danubian Principalities, and the south of Russia,
complaints, similar to those uttered by the French
wheat-growers, are continually being heard. In
Germany, the rye crop, which furnishes the staple
food of the people, has been unfavourably reported
of in several placce—frost, rain, drought, hail, and
thunderstorms having in succession tended to
render it doubtful whether the actual yield will
reach the level of previous years. In the presenoe
'though during the last four or five weeks symp-
toms of a slight fall in prices have been pe
tible, the quantity of grain sent to marketharerr-
minished week by week. Now, it is contrary to
all precedent, to all rule, for the farmer to sell his
stock when prices rise, or to hold Aback when they
are falling. Well, here: neither an excessive rise,
nor the probabilities of a fall, have in any degree
influenced the action of the farmers, and for the
best possible reason, that they have no consi-
derable stocks to dispose of. It is the
same with the continental and American
grain producers. In fact, the same causes
appear to be at work all over the world. A
competent and reliable authority in such matters
has very sensibly pointed out that the limited de-
liveries of the farmers during the last few weeks
have afforded conclusive evidence that the stooks
pout used by them are lighter than they have been
for many years past. It certainly is most unrea-
sonable, if not utterly absurd, to imagine that our
wheat-growers would prove so shortsighted, so
foofieh, so blind to their own interesta, as to hold
bat. k indefinitely large stocks which they could
readily convert into money at a considerable
ply fit, when by so holding back they incurred
the almost certainty of heavy loss. There cannot
be the least doubt that the quantity of grain ac-
tually existing in this country and on the conti-
nent is extremely limited. The harvest of 1868
will be required to repair the deficiencies of .the
harvest' of 1868 and 1867. This alone ought
to show that low prices are not yet to be
thought of. Last year we imported 9,031,364
quarters of wheat and flour, the whole of which
was consumed as fast as it arrived. At least an
equal quantity will be required also this year, but
it will be procurable only on condition of paying
ain ice higher than that given on the continent.
The quantity of wheat and flour imported by us
during the first five months of the present year
war 3,442,000 quarters, leaving a Wane() duo
fur the remaining seven months of 5,393,000
quarters. The chock of imports ooeaai.iasd
by the late panic will
.probably delay for some
weeks any marked diminution of the quan-
tity due to us, but the coming rise in price