The Express.
London, England, 1867-06-10 00:00:00

RION WATER AT LONDON BRIDGE.

TZIS 11b. Can.
lb-1101.aow—lloruleg. 911. 96. b3n.

LONDON, MONDAY, JUNE 10.

As the year proceeds we find our experience of
the periods succeeding great commercial crises
repeated in substance, although there may be some
variety of detail. The usual recovery in the stock
markets has been somewhat slow in coming, but,
on the whole, is the more marked, now that it has
once begun. On the other hand, bullion is accu-
mulating far beyond all former precedent. By
the last return, our own Bank held nearly twenty-
one millions, while the Bank of France possesses
the enormous amount of little less than

thirty-four millions and a half. There are
also no present signs that the influx
is likely to cease. Specie arrives from
all parts of the world, and there is an almost
entire absence of any demand for export. Even
India and China have ceased for the time to draw
from us the large amounts of silver which they
have been accustomed to take for many years back.
In 1857 we exported to these countries as much
as 16,732,0001. ; last year we sent but
2,366,0001., and in the first five months of 1867
only 421,000/. An addition, however, of about
30 per cent. will have to be made to the last two
totals for sums despatched direct from Marseilles
on English account. It is evident, therefore,

that our shipments of silver to the East are at the
present rate about one-thirteienth of the amount
ten years ago. Looking, also, to the other great
centres of European commerce, we find that not
only in France, but in Holland and Germany, the
national banks are daily increasing their stocks of
specie, and that their reserves are consequently
rising to a much higher point than they can safely
utilize. There does not, in fact, appear the
slightest probability that for months to come the
demand for money on the Continent will be in
excess of, or even equal to, the actual supply.
Hence, whatever amounts of capital we already

poems, or may hereafter rlceive, are sure not to
be diverted abroad. It therefore follows that,
according to all present indications, the bullion at
the Bank will receive further and considerable
additions from the supplies known to be coming
forward from the United States and Australia.
Apparently before the close of the current year
the total will surpass the largest ever recorded,
that of 22,232,1381. in July, 1852. A neces-
sary consequence will be further ease in the dis-
count market, and that in the course of the pre-
sent summer, whether the Bank make any
alteration or not, the general rate for money is
more likely to be under than over 2 per cent.
The prospect is not encouraging. Whatever
benefit excessive cheapness of money may bring
to certain classes of the community, it is dearly
purchased by the evidence it affords of stagnation
in trade. This time last year 10 per cent. at the
Bank, and 12 per cent or more in the open
. . . _

market, destroyed confidence, and caused thede-
. cline in our commerce the effects of which we
are now experiencing. Two-and-a half or two per
cent. is powerless to produce a revival. Money
was scarce last year, because no one cared to lend;
it is abundant now because no one cares to
borrow. Although discounts can be readily
obtained at little more than nominal rates,
our trade is considerably below the point
attained twelve months back. The reason
is, that in all periods of commercial dis-
turbance the purely material consequences are not
immediate, but prospective. If our exports show
a large decrease in 1867, it is due to the financial
pressure of 1866. In like manner, if the discount
market is overcharged with money, it arises from
diminished orders for foreign goods, traders calling
in outstanding balances from abroad, and selling
merchandise or securities, often at a heavy sacri-
fice. These transactions were the result of the
late crisis, and have caused a large influx of capi-
tal, of which the greater part arrived after the
pressing necessity for its use had passed away.
Precisely as trade has become more and more con-
tracted, the means by which it is carried on have
increased. This time last year a steady influx
of bullion would probably have saved an immense
amount of suffering and loss. Coming as it does
now, it only adds to our embarrassments by over-
burdening us witk additional means for which we
can find no satisfactory employment.
The events of this year and the last give
another opportunity for testing the truth of the
often quoted axiom that cheap money fosters
speculation. No such symptom has been mani-

felted yet, nor has any one ventured upon pre-
dicting a movement of the kind. It would cer-

tainlybe difficult to cite a period when the public
showed less disposition to encourage, not merely
new speculative operations, but also legitimate
enterprises, bage..l upon solid and tangible grounds.
Hence, notwithstanding the discredit that for
obvious reasons has for some time attached to
railway property, these stocks have been lately in
demand, while miscellaneous undertakings of

lblllm..

m ire recent origin have been purchased
to a very moderate extent. It is evident
that the present low rates of discount are the
effect of an absence of speculation, and thus can
hardly be expected to cause its revival. In this
case, again, it is necessary to look forward. A
year or two hence the public will have recovered
from the existing feeling of depression. They
will lie tired of getting but two or three per cent.
fur their money, and will seek seine fresh outlet
for its remunerative employment. It is not at all
impossible that a new mania will arise at that
time. Now it seems out of the question. Ac-
cording to all previous experience, it requires two
or three years from the occurrence of a crisis to
re-establish the confidence that has been rudely
shaken within as many mouths.
While our monetary resources are increasing at
an unexampled rate as far as this country is con-
cerned, we are fairly outstripped by France. To
judge from the returns mentioned above, French
commerce must be far more stagnant than our own.
How is the immense amount of money that
is weekly accumulating at the Bank of France
to be disposed of 1 A war and the consequent
public loans would doubtless suffice to disperse a
very large part of this unused capital, but of that,
fortunately, there is no present fear. Neverthe-
less, chance may bring about calamities which
ordinary calculation would demonstrate to be in-
disputably minute. The attempted assassination
of the CZAR last Thursday appear' to have been
only frustrated by accident ; but although it was
known to have failed, the mere fact that it had
been made exercised material influence, if only
for a time, on the stock and money markets. It
is difficult to overrate the consequences if the in-
tended crime had been successfully or even par-
tially accomplished. The whole course of politics
would have been changed, and a corresponding
derangement must necessarily have occurred in
financial affairs. At this moment Europe might
have been plunged into a war which, what-
ever the ultimate results, would certairly
have destroyed the savings of many years.
Money, now too plentiful, would become
scarce, and instead of the bullion at the Bank
of France receiving further additions, there
would be a steady and periodical drain, and gold
leave as fast as it had prev;ously poured in. Hap-
pily it is needless to diLcuss this contingency.
The danger has posed by, it is to be hoped
never to recur.

Is it possible that the plethora of money in
France will lead there to a speculative mania ?
Looking at her financial history for many years
back, every one will be inclined to say no. There
bas been no lack of enterprise ; railways and other
public works, both in France and the greater part
of Europe, have been completed mainly by French
capital, and public loans, home and foreign, have
been liberally subscribed. Of course in all these ope-
rations there has been a dash of speculation—
the usual desire of gaining a premium, however
small. Yet no general and apparently irresistible
infatuation has occurred, such as infected the
English public in 1845, and in a smaller degree
in 1852 and 1864-5. It would nevertheless be
rash to conclude that, because France has not ex-
perienced a mania within existing memory, the
event is not likely to happen again. We are dis-
posed to take the contrary view. The fact that a
long interval has occurred since the last example
rather strengthens the belief that a repetition is
not far distant. Commercial ninnies, at least on a
grand scale, take place but once in a lifetime.
They require fur their development peace, pros-
perity, political quietude, an abundant supply of
money, and not too much activity in commerce.
Eve-y one of these elements exists now, without
counting a natural reaction from the exaggerated
distrust caused by the English crisis of 1866.

THE attention of the House of Commons was
called on Thursday to the orders by which Irish-
men are discouraged from entering Her MAJESTY'S
regiments of Foot Guards. The order of the
Coldstreams is in these terms :—" Owing to the
" impossibility of obtaining the requisite informs-
" tion respecting age and character, natives of
" England and Scotland only are to be admitted."
The best precautions, however, cannot secure per-
fection. Wo learn from the Irish Times that a
noble lord and another, both offioers in the Cold-
stream Guards, were fined 51. each on Thursday,
at the Dublin police court, for having on the pre-
vious evening wrenched several knockers from hall
doors in the neighbourhood of Stephen's-green,
Hume-street, and Pembroke-street. When ar-
rested six knockers were found in their possession.
Without desiring to by undue stress upon conduct
on which the Irish newspapers are saying all that
is called for, we should like to know whether any
special guarantees are required of the officers of
the regiment, as they are of the men. At Dublin,
we observe, an opinion is finding expression that
there is as much reason for exacting them in the
one case as in the other.

IT was remarked a week ago, when the
enormous losses of eminent supporters of the Turf,
andthe manner in which their beta had been settled,
were recounted with so much detail by the sport-
ing press, that further elucidations could not be
delayed. The Imperial Review furr'shes them,
stating that Mr. NAYLOII, of Rooton, has become
the purchaser of the residence of the Duke of
HAMILTON, in Arlington-street ; and the Marquis
of BUTE has purchased Loudouu Castle, in Ayr-
shire, the seat of the Marquis of flasTimos, for
350,0001.

A deputation from Liverpool, consisting of Mr. J.
Yates, Mr. Hugh Cullen, Mr. John Gibbons, Mr. Richard
Hall, and the town clerk, had an interview with the Lord
President of the Council, at the Privy Council-office, on
Saturday, with reference to the order in council relating
to the Stanley Cattle Market. and the order regulating
the importation of foreign cattle into Liverpool.
REPRERENTATIoN or niz Wpm. RiDi x4:.— An effort
is intended to be made to urge upon the government, and,
if necessary, the House of Common', the strong claim, of
the West Riding to have two additional members allotted
to each division of the riding. At a meeting held in Lon-
don last week of liberal members of parliament connected
with the \Vest Riding the government scheme for the re-
distribution of seats was regarded as unsatisfactory, and
eo far as it affects the West Riding was pronounced un-
just. A mode of ➢artition was suggested for the removal
of grounds of objection, and steps are being taken to ac-
quire such additional information on the question as it is
hoped will render the movement effective for the end de-
sired.

—ELECTION PETITION COMMITTEES.—The select
committee on Corrupt Practices at Elections have come to
' • decision of considerable importance. They have agreed
to the delegation of the right to determine the validity of
all charges impeaching • return, on the ground of corrup-
tion or intimidation, to • common law court, presided
over by one of the supreme judges, and to be decided by
the verdict of a sperbil jury. We have frequently urged
the adoption of this course. A parliamentary colonlittro
is one of the most inefficient tribunals for such • purpose
which could possibly be constituted. It acknowledges no
rules of procedure for the reception of evidence and so on,
and acts, as • general rule, according to the light which
the chairman may happen to possess.—Law
THE RECENT ATTACK ON THE CZAIL—A Te
Drum was sung on Friday last, at 4 o'clock, in the chapel
of the Russian embassy, Welbeck-etreet, for the escape of
the Emperor of Russia. After the ceremony the Russians
residing or now sojourning in London forwarded to his
imperial majesty • telegram conveying their most heart-
felt congratulations and feelings of loyalty. We under-
stand that her Majesty the Queen, on being informed of
the dastardly attempt, at once sent from Helmond to the
Emperor Alexander • telegram warmly congratulating him
upon his escape.

OUR OONTEMPORARIIO3.
(THIS DAY.)