The Express.
London, England, 1867-04-23 00:00:00

TR& DANGER. 9 OF A WAR.

In all human probability, says the Times, the
next fortnight will terminate the suspense which now
paralyses confidence throughout Europe, for the prelimi-
naries of war are in these days as brief as its operations
are crushing and decisive. The intelligence of a collision
between the French and Prussian troops on the Luxem-
burg frontier may perhaps be the Brat notice we shall re-
ceive of a struggle for supremacy on the Continent, the
most formidable in its probable consequences, as it
is certainly the least just and necessary, which
has been waged since the days of Napoleon the First.
The contingency has been foreseen by both governments
for the last 12 months. From the day that Prussia estab-
lished her military superiority to Austria, it became a fixed
idea in the minds of Frenchmen as well as Germans that
she would next have to contend with France for the cham-
pionship of Europe. There is too much reason to fear
that the spirit of German nationality is possessed with
the lust of military glory. Assuming France to be
satisfied with the demolition or evacuation of Luxemburg,
the TIMES is at a loss to imagine how a plausible nut,. belli
can be framed. On the other hand if France should re-
ject the compromise she will share with Prussia the
guilt of the war. Perhaps there was never • case in
which the good offices of friendly government* could be
invoked with greater propriety, and it is reported that a
imultaneous communication has been made to the
government of Prussia by the Cabinets of Great
Britain and Russia—Prussia having herself invited
an expression of opinion from those who signed the treaties
of 1109. The opinion stated on behalf of England is
understood to have been favourable to the legality of the
contract between Holland and France. But legality is one
thing, international comity is another. If our government
is called upon to act the part of a peacemaker, it will not
overlook those circumstances which would give the occu-
pation of Luxemburg by French troops the appearance of
• demonstration against Germany.

It is remarked by the Daily Ness. that the ugliest
feature of the Luxemburg question is the state of mutual
feeling between the governments of France and Prussia
which it discloses. Were the two countries permanently
at peace—did Prussia feel that her late triumph was for-
given in France, and were France satisfied that it could
accept in amity Prussia's new position, then the decision
respecting Luxemburg could not be an affair of paramount
importance. The first truth which the powers that signed
the final arrangement of 1839 must acknowledge is that
Luxemburg is not safe in the keeping of the King of Hol-
land. Neither Prussia nor France can take or can yield
it, nor yet leave it as it is, without adding to the already
numerous provocations to war. Handed over to Belgium
for a price, Luxemburg neutralised would cease to be a
bone of contention, or an eye-sore to the rival powers.
Unlike most modern wars a war between France and Ger-
many would in all probability lead to no result, or much
alter, the present line of frontier. Germany cannot be
looked upon es naturally pugnacious or ambitious :
its aspirations have been always intellectual, and we
look to the good sense and feeling of the people
to preserve them from the mania of conquest or war for
war's sake. Theirs is now the great initiative of Europe,
and it ought to be worthy of them and of the century.
The apprehensions of war, according to the Peat, arise
from the fact that Germany is completely at one in respect
to the absolute necessity of never parting with Luxemburg,
and it may not be in the power of even Bismarck himself
to stem the violence of the popular torrent. Statesmen
may negotiate, but they do so with a dim notion that the
matter with which they are dealing does not rest in their
hands. One thing is certain—both France and Prussia are
putting themselves in a state of readiness so as to be pre-
pared for the worst in =se the negotiations should end in
failure.

The TeregrapA expresses its opinion that the French
demand for the dismantling of the fortress and the neu-
tralisation of the grand duchy is perfectly reasonable, but
doubts whether the compromise will be accepted. Prussia,
claiming to be the residuary legatee of the old confedera-
tion, desires Luxemburg as German territory. Both with
Germany and France the question is rather one of national
pride than of material interest, and any arrangement
which satisfies the one can hardly fail to dissatisfy the
other. Our own government has not conceded its opinion
that the suggested compromise is admissible as the basis of
a satisfactory settlement.

The danger which the Star sees is in the temper of the
French people. What may be called the uneducated
opinion of France is here at one with the leaders of
political thought in the metropolis. The few opposition
deputies are, in fact, at this moment at the head of the
French people, calling for an energetic policy, and the
Emperor baa scarcely an alternative left to him.
Re might control the impatience of the army if
the people were opposed to war, he might venture
upon • pacifiic course if the people were divided ;
but with the populace, the army, the journalists,
and the statesmen all crying out that France is humili-
ated and that the young giant of Germany must be
grappled with, he can do nothing else than hasten into
the market to buy breech-loaders everywhere. If war is
declared at all, France must necessarily be the aggressor;
and in such a conflict the chance is greatly in favour of
the power which stands upon the defensive.