Patent UA-78875-U (UA)
Title: method for forecasting the level of risk in the incidence of malaria in endemic countries
Inventor: TRYKHLIB VOLODYMYR IVANOVYCH
IPC: A61B5/00
Filed: 2012-07-05
Abstract: A method for forecasting the level of risk in the incidence of malaria in endemic countries comprises the research and determination of indicators related to risk factors, including those related to water bodies in the area of forecasting and implementation of an opinion on the risk of disease in total value of certain parameters. Additional the height of location is measured; the distance from the location of the receiving waters, wetlands, settlements, irrigation systems, drainage ditches is measure, as well as the distance from the location to the settlements, the amount of rainfall in the area is determined, as well as the incidence of malaria in endemic countries (areas ) and the regularity of an individual prevention methods; chemopreventive use of drugs according to their performance impact on the malaria parasite in the region, the nature of the location is determined as well as the nature of housing; the presence of construction, water, environment for storing water, the presence of sewer networks at the location in endemic countries, their condition, the nature of roads in the location, determine the nature of toilets in the location, the systematic application of insecticides determine systematic application of repellents, the character wearing at night; determine the character wearing during the day; determine the systematic application over-bed networks is determined as well as the nature of the soil, its permeability to water, assistance to create puddles after rain, the nature of agriculture, the nature of the vegetation on the ground, the nature of the work during the day, stay on the ground, the activity of hostilities, then spend assigning each factor specified index on a scale of 0 to 6, the index of risk for malaria morbidity RZ as follows:RZ = A * B * C * D * E * (F + G+ H + I + K + L + M + N + O + P + R + S + T + U + V + W + X + Z), where:A - height location;B - the distance from the location of the receiving waters, wetlands, settlements, irrigation systems, drainage ditches;C - the distance from the location to the settlements;D - rainfall in the area;Ε - the incidence of malaria in endemic countries (areas);F - frequency of use of individual methods of prevention;G - chemopreventive use of drugs according to their performance impact on the malaria parasite in the region;Η - character of location;And - nature of housing;K - availability of construction water conditions for water storage;L - the presence of sewage networks in the location in endemic countries, their condition;Μ - nature of the roads in the location;N - nature toilets at the location;Oh - the systematic use of insecticides;Ρ - systematic use of repellents;R - character wearing at night;S - character wearing during the day;Τ - nadlizhkovyh systematic use of nets;U - pound character, its permeability to water, support for creating puddles after rain;V - the nature of agriculture;W - the nature of the vegetation in the area;X - the nature of work during the day, stay in the area;Ζ - active hostilities,and at RZ 0 predict no risk incidence of malaria,with RZ in the range of 1 to 16500 predict a low risk in the incidence of malaria,with RZ in the range of 16501 - 33000 to predict the average risk in the incidence of malaria,with RZ in the range of 33001 to 49500 predicted high level of risk in the incidence of malaria,with RZ in the range of 49,501 or more predicted very high risk of malaria morbidity.