Patent RU-94012697-A (RU)
Inventor: TEREKHOVA M N
IPC: A61B5/103
Filed: 1994-04-12
Abstract: FIELD: medicine. SUBSTANCE: method involves detecting pregnant women in prenatal consultation clinics, which belong to the high risk level groups (having toxicosis in the history, presence of extragenital pathology and aggravated pregnancy related to complicated obstetric and gynecological history) and face series danger of fetal and neonatal gonads pathology development. The value of every unfavorable factor is to be calculated by using Menthel-Hansel method to determine their contribution into the pathology development risk. The method involves considering four possible states of each factor: ill patients having the factor (P1), ill patients with the factor not available (P2), healthy patients having the factor (P3), healthy patients with the factor not available (P4). Relative risk for the pathologic state to take place for patients having the factor is to be calculated from a ratio P1(P2+P4)/(P2(P1+P3)). Risk factors analysis, their role in violating gonad genesis is carried out by applying methods of mathematical statistics to maintain reliable prediction (95%) for progeny gonad developmental disorders to appear. According to the coefficients sum value calculated from table 1, patient under examination is to be related to the corresponding risk group. Influence of factors determining the development mode of early period of pregnancy is known to be investigated not completely enough in the works cited. Namely, early toxicosis influence is not taken into account. Beside that, it is of importance to give the forecasting calculation method in more precise terms to enhance female gonads development pathology prediction reliability based on the risk factors. The female gonads development pathology prediction method involves comparing anamnestic data and results of histologic analysis of the state of female gonads in progeny in intrauterine development state. (Pathology is to be detected from data received in morphometric and histochemical examination). Method for predicting progeny gonads development pathology by using risk factors is based on statistical decision theory using factors maximum likelihood method in various time cross-sections. The data cited show the risk factors turn to be the same as those in the early stage pregnancy. It means. that in observing gonad genesis disorders in the periods corresponding to those in post-natal ontogenesis, we observe disorders arisen already in the 5-20 weeks of pregnancy development. So, the result obtained proves once more the conclusion made in the previous chapters concerning deviations from the normal process of gonad development in the early period of pregnancy in % : marked early pregnancy toxicosis - 14.9, combined early and late toxicosis - 23.2, pregnancy course pathology: threatened pregnancy interruption - 5.4, infection - 7.2, I-III level fetus hypoxia - 7.7, extragenital diseases - 4, hereditary diseases of parents - 12, late menarche - 3.7, aggravated obstetric gynecologic history: complicated abortions borne - 4.6, harmful habits of parents (smoking, alcohol consumption) - 9.4, unfavorable working condition factors - 3.4, spontaneous abortions in the history - 2.3, mother age greater than 30 years - 1.7, complications of the true pregnancy termination: a) birth injury - 6.3, b) postnatal asphyxia - 6. As a result of probabilistic forecasting analysis of female gonads development pathology in the yearly state pregnancy period carried out, true result pathology forecasting probability is found to be equal to 90%, when 22 basic factors under research being taken into consideration, whereas the false result pathology forecasting probability being found to be less than 30%. Risk group dependance on total estimate is determined and boundary values determined for low, moderate and high level risk groups are shown in Table 1. Table 1 Risk Group Low Risk Moderate Risk High Risk _________________________________________________ __ Coefficient 2.5 2.5 - 6.5 6.5 Sum Value _________________________________ _ _ ________________ Forecasting method involves adding risk factor significance frequencies in carrying out dispensary observation for factors available in the history of pregnant woman under observation and next to it determining a risk group. If the score sum does not exceed 2.3, the pregnant woman under observation is considered to belong to the low risk group. The moderate risk group is composed of pregnant women under observation, which score sum value is between 2.3 and 6.9. The score sum value being greater than 6.9, the pregnant women under observation belong to the high risk group. EFFECT: enhanced effectiveness of prophylaxis; enhanced reliability of forecasting method; preserved health of descendants.