What is the likelihood of the Cascadia Earthquake ocurring in the next 50 years and how bad will it be?

The geological record reveals that "great earthquakes" (those with moment magnitude 8 or higher) occur in the Cascadia subduction zone about every 500 years on average, often accompanied by tsunamis. There is evidence of at least 13 events at intervals from about 300 to 900 years with an average of 570–590 years.[15] Previous earthquakes are estimated to have been in AD 1310, AD 810, AD 400, 170 BC and 600 BC.[citation needed]

Cascadia earthquake sources

As seen in the 1700 quake, the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake, and the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami, subduction zone earthquakes can cause large tsunamis, and many coastal areas in the region have prepared tsunami evacuation plans in anticipation of a possible future Cascadia earthquake. However, the major nearby cities, notably Seattle, Portland, Vancouver, Victoria, and Tacoma, which are located on inland waterways rather than on the coast, would be sheltered from the full brunt of a tsunami. These cities do have many vulnerable structures, especially bridges and unreinforced brick buildings; consequently, most of the damage to the cities would probably be from the earthquake itself. One expert asserts that buildings in Seattle are vastly inadequate even to withstand an event of the size of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, let alone any more powerful one.[16]

Kenneth Murphy, who directs FEMA's Region X, the division responsible for Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and Alaska, put it quite dramatically: "Our operating assumption is that everything west of Interstate 5 will be toast."[17]

Recent findings conclude that the Cascadia subduction zone is more complex and volatile than previously believed.[18] In 2010, geologists predicted a 37% chance of an M8.2+ event within 50 years, and a 10 to 15% chance that the entire Cascadia subduction zone will rupture with an M9+ event within the same time frame.[19][20] Geologists have also determined the Pacific Northwest is not prepared for such a colossal quake. The tsunami produced could reach heights of 80 to 100 feet (24 to 30 m).[21]

A 2004 study revealed the potential for relative mean sea level rise (caused by subsidence) along the Cascadia subduction zone. It postulated that cities on the west coast of Vancouver Island, such as Tofino and Ucluelet, are at risk for a 1–2 m subsidence, relative to mean sea level.[22]

Geologists predict a 37% chance of a magnitude 8.2+ earthquake caused by subduction of the Cascadia plate in the next 38 years, and a 10% - 15% of a magnitude 9+ earthquake in the same time frame. This data is from a 2010 study. Source: https://web.archive.org/web/20100527090117/http://oregonstate.edu/ua/ncs/node/13426