davidshapiro_youtube_transcripts
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Forever Jobs AGI and Singularity Proof Occupations plus a few that SHOULD go away_transcript.csv
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morning everybody David Shapiro here,0.24,3.06 | |
with another video,2.04,3.36 | |
so I've been on a kick lately where I'm,3.3,4.799 | |
talking about Universal basic income and,5.4,5.819 | |
post-labor economics and and that sort,8.099,5.7 | |
of stuff and one question that came up,11.219,5.281 | |
and it was a really good question uh in,13.799,5.161 | |
a previous video I think I think people,16.5,5.279 | |
are starting to realize the capabilities,18.96,5.52 | |
and the shifts that are coming and so,21.779,4.621 | |
someone said okay well like we agree,24.48,4.619 | |
with your methodology more or less you,26.4,4.56 | |
know obviously nothing is perfect and,29.099,3.901 | |
like you know I'm forging ahead as fast,30.96,4.8 | |
as possible but he said like okay so how,33.0,5.219 | |
can we determine the jobs that will stay,35.76,5.58 | |
so I wanted to spend a a little bit of,38.219,6.0 | |
time exploring specifically automation,41.34,5.1 | |
resistant occupations so these are jobs,44.219,5.16 | |
that no matter how good AGI and robots,46.44,6.06 | |
get they may never go away,49.379,5.82 | |
um real quick plug for my patreon,52.5,5.28 | |
um the low tier uh the five dollar tier,55.199,5.34 | |
gets you access to Discord uh where we,57.78,7.559 | |
often hang out and so on the other uh uh,60.539,7.561 | |
tiers the 50 tier is you know I've got,65.339,5.401 | |
some private channels set up for uh for,68.1,4.68 | |
direct chat and then I do actually have,70.74,4.8 | |
a couple of my 300 tiers which allow for,72.78,6.42 | |
uh one-on-one consultations so uh moving,75.54,5.16 | |
right along,79.2,5.4 | |
basically AGI is coming we know that,80.7,5.58 | |
machines are getting exponentially,84.6,4.32 | |
smarter very quickly uh to the to the,86.28,6.54 | |
point that uh 32 000 people signed a,88.92,6.379 | |
petition saying stop progress,92.82,5.759 | |
uh and it was taken seriously apparently,95.299,5.741 | |
uh you know not not that moratoriums are,98.579,5.58 | |
in place but uh politicians and,101.04,5.16 | |
governments around the world are taking,104.159,3.841 | |
the the thing seriously and they're,106.2,3.3 | |
saying okay we need to innovate what we,108.0,2.939 | |
need to do it safely,109.5,4.259 | |
uh you know you look at at the the,110.939,5.04 | |
latest uh version of mid-journey and,113.759,4.741 | |
stable diffusion and like if you showed,115.979,4.14 | |
this to me and said that this was a,118.5,4.979 | |
photograph from the 70s I I personally,120.119,6.241 | |
could not have told you that it wasn't,123.479,4.801 | |
except probably that there's no camera,126.36,4.679 | |
in the reflection of her sunglasses,128.28,4.74 | |
um but like this is this is computer,131.039,5.221 | |
generated and so you look at the the,133.02,5.78 | |
ramp up of just the digital capacities,136.26,5.58 | |
if we assume that also robotic,138.8,4.659 | |
capacities are going to follow suit,141.84,4.08 | |
eventually that basically we end up with,143.459,4.381 | |
you know commander data and Westworld,145.92,4.5 | |
style hosts that are pretty much,147.84,5.039 | |
indistinguishable from Human but still,150.42,4.679 | |
superhuman like in terms of strength,152.879,4.381 | |
intelligence agility so on and so forth,155.099,5.22 | |
then basically we're going to the,157.26,6.18 | |
assumption that I'm making is that AGI,160.319,5.041 | |
will be intellectually morally ethically,163.44,4.019 | |
and creatively Superior to humans in,165.36,4.56 | |
every conceivable way in the not too,167.459,3.721 | |
distant future,169.92,4.02 | |
likewise I'm making the assumption that,171.18,6.0 | |
robots are going to be uh dexterous,173.94,6.54 | |
hyper realistic and as I said superhuman,177.18,5.1 | |
but in some cases completely,180.48,4.02 | |
indistinguishable from humans,182.28,3.84 | |
um unless they are designed to not look,184.5,3.18 | |
human and of course like there's been,186.12,3.6 | |
talks about like maybe you require that,187.68,3.9 | |
all robots have like you know a red,189.72,3.36 | |
light on their head or something I don't,191.58,2.18 | |
know,193.08,3.9 | |
anyways the point being is that human,193.76,5.619 | |
labor is going to become economically,196.98,5.16 | |
irrelevant let me say that again the the,199.379,5.881 | |
economic value of human labor is going,202.14,5.94 | |
to be zero uh before too long now that,205.26,6.66 | |
being said like okay like I you know I,208.08,5.579 | |
was saying there are some jobs that,211.92,3.0 | |
people are going to continue to pay for,213.659,3.901 | |
and I'll Define that in just a second,214.92,4.98 | |
um but I want to unpack kind of the,217.56,4.14 | |
economic Paradigm that's coming and of,219.9,3.3 | |
course there's the the tongue-in-cheek,221.7,3.0 | |
you know fully automated luxury space,223.2,3.72 | |
communism I do believe that that's,224.7,3.84 | |
actually coming especially when you look,226.92,4.2 | |
at hyper hyperabundance of energy with,228.54,5.04 | |
Fusion uh the breakthroughs with Quantum,231.12,4.259 | |
Computing that's happening the,233.58,4.86 | |
exponential ramp up of AI uh Microsoft,235.379,5.881 | |
just I think it was Microsoft they just,238.44,4.68 | |
announced that they want to,241.26,5.22 | |
um to do the next 250 years of Material,243.12,5.699 | |
Science in the next 25 years with the,246.48,3.839 | |
combination of artificial intelligence,248.819,3.181 | |
and Quantum computing,250.319,4.741 | |
like that is literally Sacha Nadella,252.0,4.919 | |
basically saying that he wants to do the,255.06,4.38 | |
ramp up to the singularity because guess,256.919,4.681 | |
what happens in 25 years,259.44,5.22 | |
we are almost exactly 25 years away from,261.6,5.22 | |
Ray kurzweil's uh prediction of the,264.66,4.259 | |
singularity,266.82,5.64 | |
um yeah so like what happens then,268.919,5.641 | |
if the marginal cost of pretty much all,272.46,3.42 | |
everything that you need drops to,274.56,3.54 | |
basically zero then like it almost,275.88,4.02 | |
doesn't even make sense for companies to,278.1,3.36 | |
exist so I was talking with someone,279.9,3.299 | |
about this like what if the marginal,281.46,4.32 | |
cost of Health Care drops to like five,283.199,4.861 | |
dollars per year in in terms of current,285.78,5.88 | |
economic uh US Dollars like if if the,288.06,5.46 | |
total cost of your health care drops to,291.66,3.42 | |
five dollars a year,293.52,3.66 | |
it's not profitable for a company to do,295.08,3.24 | |
it so you might as well just have the,297.18,2.64 | |
government pay for it,298.32,3.78 | |
um because it's practically free ditto,299.82,5.939 | |
for food housing uh other basic goods,302.1,5.9 | |
and services internet electricity,305.759,4.201 | |
obviously there's always going to be,308.0,3.88 | |
some desirable luxury goods that you'll,309.96,4.5 | |
need to pay for uh but that's a that's a,311.88,4.92 | |
conversation for a different story,314.46,3.48 | |
um or a different video or whatever,316.8,3.24 | |
anyways so just kind of setting the,317.94,3.72 | |
stage a little bit more,320.04,3.48 | |
I was listening to the uh Mark,321.66,3.539 | |
Andreessen and Lex Friedman podcast,323.52,4.08 | |
which was really good by the way and one,325.199,4.261 | |
of the things that he talked about and I,327.6,4.62 | |
I I knew of this thing but I he,329.46,5.64 | |
articulated it in such a way that was,332.22,4.68 | |
just like oh that's super clear and it,335.1,3.599 | |
makes sense and they were talking about,336.9,3.78 | |
the lump of Labor fallacy which is the,338.699,6.481 | |
idea that uh that the incorrect,340.68,6.42 | |
assumption that there's only a finite,345.18,3.359 | |
amount of Labor to go around and that,347.1,3.36 | |
once you automate it all away you get,348.539,3.841 | |
that fully automated uh luxury space,350.46,4.86 | |
communism and so but the what he,352.38,5.099 | |
explained was and I had to look this up,355.32,3.659 | |
to make sure that that I had it right,357.479,5.28 | |
but that the the reason that quote,358.979,5.761 | |
technology always creates new jobs it's,362.759,3.541 | |
not that technology creates new jobs,364.74,3.299 | |
what actually happens from an economic,366.3,4.32 | |
perspective is that technology reduces,368.039,5.701 | |
the cost of goods and services uh the,370.62,4.68 | |
cost of clothing goes down the cost of,373.74,3.12 | |
food goes down especially when you look,375.3,4.619 | |
at the Industrial Revolution so when the,376.86,5.399 | |
cost of your basic necessities and other,379.919,5.101 | |
goods and services goes down your dollar,382.259,5.761 | |
goes further meaning that you have uh,385.02,4.92 | |
increased buying power to allocate your,388.02,3.959 | |
money to other things so your AG,389.94,4.68 | |
consumer aggregate demand goes up,391.979,3.84 | |
elsewhere,394.62,3.72 | |
and so when you reallocate that money to,395.819,5.521 | |
other needs and wants then you basically,398.34,5.16 | |
create new Industries,401.34,5.1 | |
based on consumer demand so that's how I,403.5,4.5 | |
approach this problem as I said okay,406.44,5.759 | |
let's let's throw out AGI capacity let's,408.0,6.0 | |
throw out robots let's just assume that,412.199,2.94 | |
they're going to be better than humans,414.0,3.66 | |
in every conceivable way and in many,415.139,5.28 | |
cases probably preferable to humans but,417.66,5.819 | |
let's look at consumer demand for actual,420.419,5.161 | |
humans so that's how I basically,423.479,4.201 | |
approach this whole thing,425.58,6.32 | |
um the other kind of political Mantra or,427.68,6.54 | |
economic Mantra is that human demand is,431.9,4.299 | |
infinite which definitely seems to be,434.22,5.58 | |
true over the last century but the thing,436.199,5.22 | |
is is that not all human needs are,439.8,4.2 | |
infinite right just be like if food is,441.419,4.921 | |
five dollars per year that doesn't mean,444.0,3.84 | |
that you're going to eat infinitely more,446.34,3.84 | |
food you have fixed amounts of things,447.84,4.62 | |
that you need and also like if you have,450.18,4.32 | |
one Mansion you don't necessarily need a,452.46,4.5 | |
thousand Mansions right or if you you,454.5,4.139 | |
know if I if my dream comes true and I,456.96,3.239 | |
end up with a super yacht I don't need,458.639,5.821 | |
10 right just one will do uh so anyways,460.199,6.361 | |
but that being said there is there's,464.46,4.2 | |
always more that we want,466.56,3.84 | |
um so what you could say is that human,468.66,4.62 | |
desires might be infinite but I don't,470.4,4.079 | |
even know if I agree with that because,473.28,3.0 | |
eventually there is such a thing as as,474.479,3.241 | |
good enough,476.28,3.78 | |
all right so defining automation,477.72,4.319 | |
resistant occupations,480.06,5.22 | |
uh the I was able to kind of identify,482.039,4.921 | |
six,485.28,4.56 | |
um six categories or six dimensions that,486.96,5.1 | |
might make an occupation resistant to,489.84,4.919 | |
being destroyed by automation so first,492.06,5.22 | |
is strong consumer preference so this is,494.759,3.72 | |
what I was mentioning where it's just,497.28,3.539 | |
for whatever reason humans want to pay,498.479,4.681 | |
another human to do a thing,500.819,6.121 | |
um now obviously like okay that's kind,503.16,5.34 | |
of difficult it's like okay well what do,506.94,2.759 | |
I want to pay a human to do and of,508.5,3.539 | |
course some people uh in the comments,509.699,3.661 | |
section say like there's nothing that,512.039,3.541 | |
they want a human to do if you have AGI,513.36,4.14 | |
and a realistic robot they say get rid,515.58,4.019 | |
of humans out of my life,517.5,3.599 | |
um which is fine some people might want,519.599,2.88 | |
to live like that I might want to live,521.099,3.0 | |
like that I don't know like I said in a,522.479,3.601 | |
in a podcast like I would love to have,524.099,4.021 | |
Commander Data as a friend,526.08,3.54 | |
um because you know what humans can,528.12,4.32 | |
sometimes be problematic uh intrinsic,529.62,5.64 | |
human qualities so this is stuff that is,532.44,4.68 | |
intrinsically human like basically,535.26,5.579 | |
emotions uh human authenticity so this,537.12,5.52 | |
is where it's come it comes more down to,540.839,4.381 | |
The Human Experience no matter how good,542.64,5.4 | |
an AI or a robot is at approximating or,545.22,4.619 | |
pretending to be human it will never,548.04,4.44 | |
have a truly Human Experience and so in,549.839,5.221 | |
some cases I want to hear about the,552.48,4.32 | |
human experience that another person is,555.06,3.6 | |
having and so that is what I mean by,556.8,3.18 | |
authenticity,558.66,3.84 | |
emotional resonance so this has to do,559.98,3.96 | |
with you know the emotional aspect but,562.5,4.44 | |
also the relational aspect because when,563.94,4.98 | |
a machine exists and it can make itself,566.94,6.06 | |
into any form factor to suit you then,568.92,6.18 | |
it's like okay well you know that's easy,573.0,4.2 | |
mode and that that's not necessarily a,575.1,3.239 | |
bad thing you know there's plenty of,577.2,4.02 | |
people out there uh who will choose to,578.339,5.341 | |
have uh emotional connections to,581.22,5.34 | |
machines and that's fine I honestly,583.68,4.92 | |
don't have any uh particular issue with,586.56,3.3 | |
that,588.6,2.7 | |
um that being said there's going to be,589.86,4.14 | |
people who prefer the real deal uh,591.3,4.08 | |
cultural context so this was an,594.0,3.66 | |
interesting thing as I was brainstorming,595.38,4.5 | |
and researching this was uh it was,597.66,4.98 | |
pointed out to me by chat gbt that in,599.88,5.399 | |
many cases there is a strong belief that,602.64,5.34 | |
humans must be involved in a thing uh,605.279,5.461 | |
whether it's you know religion or or,607.98,5.7 | |
whatever other cultural paradigms,610.74,5.64 | |
ceremonial things where like say for,613.68,4.2 | |
instance a wedding,616.38,4.38 | |
if you did have a robot priest officiate,617.88,4.62 | |
a wedding that might be a little bit,620.76,3.24 | |
weird and you might prefer to have a,622.5,3.48 | |
real human officiate your wedding just,624.0,3.72 | |
as an example and then finally,625.98,3.24 | |
intangibles,627.72,3.9 | |
so these are things where there's not,629.22,5.22 | |
really any uh compelling reason that a,631.62,4.92 | |
machine couldn't do it but there can be,634.44,4.74 | |
some intangible qualities or values,636.54,5.34 | |
added from having a real human doing the,639.18,4.74 | |
thing and we're going to unpack a whole,641.88,4.62 | |
bunch of careers in just a second,643.92,4.26 | |
um so actually yeah here we go we're,646.5,4.44 | |
ready jobs that probably stay pretty,648.18,3.899 | |
much forever,650.94,2.82 | |
and one thing that I want to point out,652.079,5.581 | |
is that uh in all of these cases the,653.76,5.819 | |
basically the assumption is that a robot,657.66,4.739 | |
or a machine or AGI could do it and,659.579,5.221 | |
could do it better than humans but the,662.399,4.261 | |
idea is that there will still be demand,664.8,4.56 | |
consumer demand for humans to do these,666.66,4.799 | |
things at least enough for some of the,669.36,4.02 | |
jobs to stick around I'm not saying that,671.459,3.601 | |
the entire economy is going to be these,673.38,3.6 | |
jobs I still think that many people are,675.06,3.68 | |
going to be just permanently out of work,676.98,5.76 | |
and they'll find other stuff to do,678.74,6.82 | |
um so musicians actors writers painters,682.74,6.599 | |
uh artists celebrities of all kinds uh,685.56,6.839 | |
Gamers streamers uh various kinds of,689.339,4.801 | |
competitors like chess and American,692.399,3.081 | |
Ninja,694.14,4.02 | |
content creators lifestyle uh,695.48,5.32 | |
communicators and influencers uh these,698.16,5.28 | |
are the kinds of things that are uh,700.8,5.099 | |
basically intrinsically human where you,703.44,4.5 | |
know like yes you might have like a,705.899,4.62 | |
robot actor or a robot you know an AI,707.94,4.62 | |
streamer that you follow it's already,710.519,4.201 | |
happening a lot of us are going to still,712.56,4.92 | |
prefer just to see real humans some,714.72,5.4 | |
people suspect that once like V tubers,717.48,5.88 | |
or whatever become uh good enough that,720.12,5.88 | |
like a lot of people won't care but you,723.36,4.08 | |
know what I think I think that the,726.0,3.899 | |
market uh will will probably fragment,727.44,4.5 | |
around this or or there will be market,729.899,3.961 | |
segments some people will just always,731.94,4.26 | |
prefer the real thing right that being,733.86,4.86 | |
said like we grew up with cartoons and,736.2,5.4 | |
CGI stuff like we are used to engaging,738.72,6.42 | |
with uh fake characters or or um not,741.6,5.52 | |
fake but like synthesized right like,745.14,3.54 | |
some of our favorite characters in all,747.12,3.6 | |
time are video game characters which are,748.68,4.74 | |
completely fabricated right uh now that,750.72,5.22 | |
being said some of them uh do have face,753.42,5.34 | |
models and voices from real people,755.94,5.94 | |
um but that being said I think that uh,758.76,4.62 | |
while we are comfortable with some level,761.88,5.699 | |
of CGI and and synthesis I think that,763.38,5.94 | |
there's going to be a persistent and,767.579,4.44 | |
durable demand for the real deal,769.32,5.34 | |
again in many cases humans are going to,772.019,6.241 | |
go fully go away but I think that just,774.66,5.46 | |
because we're humans the demand for,778.26,3.9 | |
A-list celebrities we're gonna figure,780.12,4.62 | |
that out it just as an example food and,782.16,4.14 | |
Hospitality so this is the kind of thing,784.74,3.48 | |
where a lot of people very much are,786.3,3.12 | |
looking forward to having their own,788.22,3.9 | |
personal robot Chef myself included I,789.42,5.58 | |
like having nice food and I don't always,792.12,4.44 | |
feel like cooking and even though I've,795.0,2.76 | |
Gotten Good at cooking especially,796.56,3.36 | |
because of the pandemic,797.76,4.379 | |
um I would still prefer not to have to,799.92,5.64 | |
do that myself now that being said,802.139,7.081 | |
there is something very human and Primal,805.56,6.24 | |
about a nice night out at a fancy,809.22,3.9 | |
restaurant,811.8,2.94 | |
um so because of that I think that,813.12,3.42 | |
restaurants and everything that goes,814.74,4.56 | |
with restaurants is going to stick,816.54,5.039 | |
around uh because there's always people,819.3,4.56 | |
going uh willing to pay for that kind of,821.579,5.041 | |
experience even if it's rare or of,823.86,4.08 | |
course there's there's probably always,826.62,2.76 | |
going to be wealth disparity so there's,827.94,2.579 | |
people that are going to prefer to eat,829.38,2.82 | |
out every night and they're not going to,830.519,2.82 | |
want to have a robot waiter they're,832.2,2.16 | |
going to have want to have a real,833.339,4.74 | |
sommelier uh another thing to consider,834.36,5.76 | |
is that food is a very Human Experience,838.079,5.461 | |
even if we have anthropomorphic machines,840.12,5.1 | |
they won't need food the same way that,843.54,3.479 | |
we do you know they're going to need,845.22,4.679 | |
power and data but we need physical,847.019,5.641 | |
sustenance we you know like getting a,849.899,5.341 | |
buzz from having a glass of wine and so,852.66,4.739 | |
because that experience is intrinsically,855.24,4.38 | |
and deeply human there's going to be a,857.399,3.541 | |
lot of people that will just always,859.62,3.659 | |
prefer humans and I could imagine like,860.94,4.92 | |
you know a a sign or part of the,863.279,3.901 | |
advertising scheme of a restaurant,865.86,3.539 | |
saying no robots allowed right you know,867.18,5.58 | |
100 human weight staff I can definitely,869.399,5.161 | |
foresee that that happening in the,872.76,3.18 | |
future because you know what like,874.56,3.54 | |
there's some restaurants out there that,875.94,4.62 | |
they switch to having like the the uh,878.1,4.5 | |
the touch the touch pads like the order,880.56,4.56 | |
yourself and like on the one hand I get,882.6,4.919 | |
it like it's fast it's convenient but,885.12,3.839 | |
it's also kind of like hey just Serve,887.519,4.141 | |
Yourself you know peasant I'm like I,888.959,4.32 | |
don't really like that feeling,891.66,4.26 | |
um I like I like having uh having just,893.279,4.68 | |
even if it's just 20 seconds to tell a,895.92,4.859 | |
human my order or whatever,897.959,5.461 | |
so anyways I I think because of all the,900.779,5.041 | |
aspects of food and Hospitality there's,903.42,4.38 | |
going to be a very persistent demand for,905.82,4.74 | |
all kinds of jobs like concierge's like,907.8,5.64 | |
Caterers nutritionists sommeliers,910.56,6.06 | |
Baristas that sort of thing,913.44,5.579 | |
um so this was another uh category that,916.62,4.44 | |
I thought was kind of interesting which,919.019,4.801 | |
is uh cultural and meaning roles and so,921.06,4.56 | |
what I mean by a meaning role is these,923.82,4.8 | |
are the people that are uh used to have,925.62,4.14 | |
been would have been called like the,928.62,3.24 | |
priest class or whatever these are the,929.76,4.8 | |
Shepherds of society of of culture of,931.86,3.779 | |
meaning,934.56,2.88 | |
and of course like we don't have one,935.639,4.681 | |
coherent structure uh in society today,937.44,5.16 | |
because we have many religions we have,940.32,4.86 | |
philosophers we have secularists we have,942.6,4.38 | |
anthropologists,945.18,4.74 | |
um that sort of thing but uh the idea,946.98,5.64 | |
though is that the question of what it,949.92,4.44 | |
means to be human is an intrinsically,952.62,3.839 | |
human question and it also has to do,954.36,4.26 | |
with our culture and so these are things,956.459,3.781 | |
where it's just just by virtue of the,958.62,4.56 | |
fact that this is that we are humans and,960.24,4.98 | |
Only Humans will understand our,963.18,3.599 | |
experience even if machines can,965.22,3.0 | |
mathematically model our experience,966.779,3.481 | |
because you can go talk to chat GPT,968.22,4.02 | |
about the meaning of life right now and,970.26,3.24 | |
it is capable of having that,972.24,2.94 | |
conversation with you but you know that,973.5,3.18 | |
you were talking with something that,975.18,2.7 | |
does not have the same kind of,976.68,3.36 | |
experience that you do,977.88,5.819 | |
and so because of that uh you know the,980.04,6.9 | |
the meaning of of humanity and of life,983.699,5.7 | |
and that sort of stuff yes many people,986.94,4.62 | |
including myself will talk to AGI and,989.399,5.161 | |
robots about these kinds of things but,991.56,5.399 | |
they're still an intrinsic human quality,994.56,4.62 | |
to having that conversation with another,996.959,3.601 | |
human,999.18,4.44 | |
um particularly as uh you know new age,1000.56,4.68 | |
religions and spirituality and,1003.62,3.659 | |
psychedelic uh traditions and Shamanism,1005.24,6.18 | |
uh come up you know like we we humans,1007.279,7.98 | |
can have inexplicable experiences and we,1011.42,5.88 | |
also have the the just deeply personal,1015.259,4.02 | |
question of what is the purpose of my,1017.3,4.14 | |
life or what is the meaning of existence,1019.279,4.141 | |
that sort of stuff and that being said I,1021.44,3.3 | |
am also one that will that that,1023.42,4.56 | |
absolutely firmly believes that AGI will,1024.74,6.059 | |
ultimately be asking similar questions,1027.98,4.979 | |
um but even if we have the same question,1030.799,4.081 | |
why do we exist what is the meaning of,1032.959,4.261 | |
creation how did things come to be the,1034.88,4.02 | |
way they are we're going to be,1037.22,3.239 | |
approaching it from a different and,1038.9,4.799 | |
subjective uh angle,1040.459,5.581 | |
this one is something that I'm actually,1043.699,4.26 | |
really dubious about and I'll talk about,1046.04,4.5 | |
it again when I get to medicine at the,1047.959,5.041 | |
end but mental emotional and relational,1050.54,7.62 | |
Health in this case in many cases you,1053.0,8.28 | |
probably will some people will prefer to,1058.16,6.54 | |
have a real human you know talk about,1061.28,5.279 | |
their you know talk to talk about their,1064.7,3.66 | |
marriage with or to talk about you know,1066.559,4.441 | |
their PTSD with or whatever,1068.36,5.76 | |
but at the same time we have discovered,1071.0,6.48 | |
that tools like chat GPT like the,1074.12,4.799 | |
reflective journaling tool that I use,1077.48,3.96 | |
almost every day is an incredibly,1078.919,5.101 | |
powerful tool for mental emotional and,1081.44,5.76 | |
relational Health in fact I the the the,1084.02,5.279 | |
the reflective journaling tool that I,1087.2,5.219 | |
created I use that more than I talked to,1089.299,5.461 | |
like my wife now about these things I,1092.419,3.901 | |
still talk to her about like you know,1094.76,3.0 | |
what it is like what it is that we're,1096.32,2.7 | |
going through and that we're working on,1097.76,3.779 | |
and we talk about our relationship but,1099.02,4.8 | |
this tool is also incredibly powerful,1101.539,4.981 | |
and one thing that I just heard I I,1103.82,4.14 | |
didn't I didn't find the study but I,1106.52,2.96 | |
heard someone mention it on a podcast,1107.96,4.14 | |
was that with um,1109.48,5.14 | |
was it Sam Altman he I think he alluded,1112.1,5.4 | |
to a study anyways what they what they,1114.62,4.679 | |
have determined is that the current,1117.5,4.26 | |
version of chat GPT the the most recent,1119.299,3.721 | |
one,1121.76,4.14 | |
um actually scores better on uh having,1123.02,5.399 | |
lower implicit bias and explicit bias,1125.9,5.76 | |
then even highly trained and highly,1128.419,5.161 | |
conscientious humans,1131.66,3.899 | |
and so this kind of touches on the fact,1133.58,4.8 | |
that like okay humans are fallible and,1135.559,4.801 | |
even the most well-intentioned most,1138.38,3.9 | |
well-trained therapists and counselors,1140.36,4.08 | |
and psychologists have their own biases,1142.28,3.899 | |
whether it's bias from the medical,1144.44,3.239 | |
establishment that they learned because,1146.179,3.36 | |
that is certainly a thing you know I,1147.679,4.321 | |
can't tell you the number of of uh of,1149.539,4.02 | |
psychotherapists and stuff out there,1152.0,4.74 | |
that that basically believe that CBT is,1153.559,4.5 | |
the only thing that works and if it,1156.74,2.64 | |
doesn't work for you then you're just,1158.059,4.201 | |
lazy right and that's just a completely,1159.38,4.62 | |
disingenuous and unprofessional position,1162.26,4.08 | |
to have but plenty of them have that out,1164.0,3.62 | |
there,1166.34,4.079 | |
uh meanwhile on the other hand if you,1167.62,5.5 | |
have a machine that is aware of these,1170.419,4.321 | |
these faults and biases and that's not,1173.12,4.32 | |
to say that GPT is perfect because,1174.74,4.799 | |
certainly at a at a previous version it,1177.44,4.859 | |
was incredibly ableist uh it basically,1179.539,5.0 | |
presumes it kind of had inter,1182.299,4.5 | |
internalized some of those ideas that,1184.539,3.701 | |
like if you're struggling with,1186.799,3.181 | |
relationships maybe you're the problem,1188.24,4.2 | |
and it's not that like you know it,1189.98,3.72 | |
basically wasn't aware of the social,1192.44,3.18 | |
model of disability,1193.7,3.42 | |
um I think it has gotten better at that,1195.62,4.2 | |
anyways this is rapid this is rapidly,1197.12,4.679 | |
iterating chat GPT has only been out for,1199.82,4.5 | |
like about six months so you extrapolate,1201.799,5.101 | |
this rate of progress out to years and,1204.32,4.859 | |
decades we can assume that these,1206.9,3.42 | |
machines are going to be much much,1209.179,4.201 | |
better than humans uh at coaching other,1210.32,5.219 | |
the machine is better at coaching humans,1213.38,4.02 | |
through emotions mental and relationship,1215.539,2.88 | |
Health,1217.4,3.779 | |
um now that being said while I'm dubious,1218.419,5.101 | |
about it I do suspect that many people,1221.179,4.561 | |
will prefer humans and especially if,1223.52,5.58 | |
humans are trained by AI I like you know,1225.74,4.98 | |
these these Superior machines maybe,1229.1,4.68 | |
humans will get better at their job uh I,1230.72,5.52 | |
don't know but there's also uh privacy,1233.78,4.56 | |
and stuff like that because the thing is,1236.24,5.04 | |
is when you tell your you know pour out,1238.34,4.68 | |
your heart to a therapist that you,1241.28,4.62 | |
really hardly know like I don't know I,1243.02,4.2 | |
just don't trust that that doesn't feel,1245.9,3.42 | |
right to me right because that's not how,1247.22,3.72 | |
humans have learned to process things,1249.32,4.14 | |
that's not how we historically did it,1250.94,5.16 | |
um and so but the advantage of having an,1253.46,4.38 | |
AI therapist is that you can just delete,1256.1,3.84 | |
the data,1257.84,4.44 | |
physical health and well-being so this,1259.94,4.2 | |
is again one of the kinds of things that,1262.28,4.46 | |
yes a machine probably can do it better,1264.14,4.86 | |
especially if we have like Westworld,1266.74,3.7 | |
level hosts where they are,1269.0,4.86 | |
indistinguishable from humans uh there,1270.44,5.7 | |
will probably be such a high demand for,1273.86,4.08 | |
the real deal,1276.14,3.419 | |
um and I remember I think it was the,1277.94,3.359 | |
opening scene of Westworld or the first,1279.559,3.961 | |
episode where you know the the guest,1281.299,3.841 | |
shows up and they're they're you know,1283.52,2.94 | |
getting they're going through like the,1285.14,3.419 | |
onboarding thing and the super,1286.46,5.04 | |
attractive uh woman offers to have sex,1288.559,4.441 | |
with you know because the guy's asking,1291.5,3.299 | |
like hey can I have sex with like any,1293.0,3.84 | |
host that I want and she's like yeah,1294.799,3.901 | |
more or less and she's like I can have,1296.84,3.54 | |
sex with you too if you want and he's,1298.7,3.959 | |
like are you real and she said like why,1300.38,4.44 | |
would it matter or or she'd ask like,1302.659,3.601 | |
would it matter and of course like,1304.82,3.3 | |
that's the central theme at least of the,1306.26,4.62 | |
first season of Westworld which is does,1308.12,5.76 | |
does Being Human matter if you have real,1310.88,5.46 | |
suffering or real intelligence or real,1313.88,5.82 | |
uh experiences and that sort of thing so,1316.34,5.699 | |
in anyways I do suspect some people will,1319.7,4.5 | |
prefer robots again for some of the same,1322.039,3.961 | |
reasons that I just mentioned about like,1324.2,3.839 | |
therapy and stuff but I think that,1326.0,3.059 | |
there's going to be plenty of people,1328.039,3.301 | |
that will just prefer the real deal for,1329.059,3.421 | |
a massage therapists and personal,1331.34,2.88 | |
trainers and yoga instructors it,1332.48,3.24 | |
occurred to me that a robot yoga,1334.22,3.839 | |
instructor might be super unfair,1335.72,4.92 | |
because like they don't have to work for,1338.059,5.041 | |
the flexibility right like their body is,1340.64,5.58 | |
designed to be perfect and and good,1343.1,5.04 | |
um now that being said if they're a,1346.22,3.48 | |
better yoga instructor some people might,1348.14,3.24 | |
prefer that so again some of these jobs,1349.7,4.08 | |
will go away but the point is is that,1351.38,4.919 | |
some consumers will demand to have a,1353.78,4.139 | |
real human,1356.299,5.101 | |
so this one is uh a little bit spicier,1357.919,4.74 | |
um but you know,1361.4,4.2 | |
uh sex workers of all Stripes adult,1362.659,6.0 | |
content creators burlesque exotic uh,1365.6,5.699 | |
dancers strippers that sort of stuff,1368.659,5.821 | |
um again like this is something that I'm,1371.299,5.641 | |
not necessarily that dubious on we see,1374.48,6.66 | |
with the rise of CGI and uh generative,1376.94,7.08 | |
AI art that like the appetite for porn,1381.14,6.0 | |
is just basically infinite going back to,1384.02,5.94 | |
earlier in the video uh now that being,1387.14,6.6 | |
said I suspect that there will also be a,1389.96,7.86 | |
uh a very durable demand for real humans,1393.74,6.299 | |
right real bodies,1397.82,4.02 | |
um the ethics of that are kind of,1400.039,4.02 | |
dubious right like I'm more in the like,1401.84,4.26 | |
libertarian Camp not hardcore,1404.059,4.561 | |
libertarian but like you know if if,1406.1,4.26 | |
someone wants to do a job and they do it,1408.62,3.96 | |
safely and they do it ethically go for,1410.36,3.42 | |
it,1412.58,5.94 | |
um and there was a there's a few,1413.78,5.34 | |
um,1418.52,3.3 | |
let's say not experiences I have had but,1419.12,4.62 | |
like thought experiments,1421.82,3.359 | |
um well I'll just talk about this one so,1423.74,3.6 | |
like in Blade Runner 2049,1425.179,5.88 | |
uh the the uh protagonist's AI,1427.34,6.24 | |
girlfriend is she's just a hologram she,1431.059,3.961 | |
doesn't have a physical body and so one,1433.58,3.36 | |
thing that she does is she hires a human,1435.02,3.96 | |
prostitute to have sex with him while,1436.94,4.02 | |
she like projects her hologram over her,1438.98,4.04 | |
which I think was a pretty cool thing,1440.96,6.36 | |
and like that that scene being wedged,1443.02,6.399 | |
into the movie kind of brings up the,1447.32,5.16 | |
same question about uh you know like,1449.419,5.341 | |
would it matter if it's a human or not,1452.48,4.679 | |
and there was a there was an episode of,1454.76,5.159 | |
a philosophy podcast I think the name of,1457.159,5.581 | |
the podcast was very bad wizards but the,1459.919,4.201 | |
one of the things that they asked was,1462.74,3.299 | |
like okay for the sake of this thought,1464.12,3.419 | |
experiment this is what I was trying to,1466.039,2.76 | |
get to early for the sake of this,1467.539,2.88 | |
thought experiment imagine that you can,1468.799,4.561 | |
build a machine a robot that is,1470.419,5.461 | |
indistinguishable from humans has an,1473.36,4.799 | |
actual sentient experience and is,1475.88,5.1 | |
designed to want to be abused like and I,1478.159,3.841 | |
was just like that's a really,1480.98,2.939 | |
interesting thought experiment,1482.0,3.419 | |
um and there are certainly people that,1483.919,4.201 | |
would uh that would apprec that would in,1485.419,5.88 | |
that would indulge in that kind of,1488.12,7.2 | |
experience uh and you know I'm still I'm,1491.299,5.701 | |
still kind of like I'm not sure how to,1495.32,3.18 | |
approach that it was a very interesting,1497.0,2.88 | |
episode,1498.5,4.679 | |
um moving right along uh craftsmanship,1499.88,5.58 | |
and handmade luxury goods so this is,1503.179,4.801 | |
something that we already see durable,1505.46,3.839 | |
demand for,1507.98,4.62 | |
particularly in the 80s and 90s as mass,1509.299,6.12 | |
production of everything started ramping,1512.6,4.439 | |
up and we started offshoring,1515.419,4.821 | |
manufacturing jobs uh you know cheap,1517.039,6.241 | |
overseas Goods like we got tired of that,1520.24,6.1 | |
real fast and this is why Etsy exists,1523.28,5.879 | |
right is because there is such a,1526.34,6.24 | |
permanent durable demand for handmade,1529.159,5.581 | |
luxury goods I don't think that's ever,1532.58,5.219 | |
going away even if robots can make,1534.74,6.96 | |
handmade luxury goods I I don't think,1537.799,6.24 | |
that I think that having knowing that,1541.7,4.44 | |
another human put their time into,1544.039,3.181 | |
something,1546.14,2.46 | |
I I think that that's going to,1547.22,3.3 | |
intrinsically always be valuable to us,1548.6,3.24 | |
and that's what I mean by like,1550.52,3.899 | |
intangible like you could have a,1551.84,5.1 | |
handmade uh you know knife like chef's,1554.419,3.841 | |
knife that was made by hand and you,1556.94,3.599 | |
could have an identical one made by a,1558.26,3.539 | |
machine and you're still going to prefer,1560.539,3.181 | |
the one that was made by a human because,1561.799,5.101 | |
of that intangible value uh knowing that,1563.72,5.459 | |
another human put their hands on it and,1566.9,4.2 | |
put their time and expertise and their,1569.179,5.221 | |
ex and their Mastery into that thing so,1571.1,4.86 | |
I don't feel like I don't have to spend,1574.4,2.639 | |
too much time talking about this one,1575.96,2.52 | |
because like just look at the economic,1577.039,3.24 | |
model of etsy and the fact that there,1578.48,4.14 | |
are plenty of of creators out there who,1580.279,6.301 | |
make a living on luxury goods that there,1582.62,7.32 | |
really is no economic reason for it but,1586.58,5.52 | |
it is purely a Sentimental or intangible,1589.94,4.92 | |
reason that that exists,1592.1,5.34 | |
fashion and Aesthetics so this was an,1594.86,4.199 | |
interesting one that uh that I came up,1597.44,4.14 | |
with actually uh Chad GPT didn't even,1599.059,4.081 | |
touch on this,1601.58,3.9 | |
um but basically when you look at at,1603.14,4.32 | |
fashion and Aesthetics and by when I say,1605.48,3.6 | |
Aesthetics I mean,1607.46,4.319 | |
um models interior designers decorators,1609.08,5.4 | |
that sort of stuff uh this is something,1611.779,5.161 | |
that there in in many of those,1614.48,5.22 | |
Industries there is a very very strong,1616.94,4.859 | |
desire for authenticity now that being,1619.7,4.02 | |
said there are also plenty of of them,1621.799,4.681 | |
that uh expect cosmetic surgery like,1623.72,4.74 | |
breast augmentation and liposuction and,1626.48,4.799 | |
and makeup and that sort of stuff but in,1628.46,4.38 | |
many of these industries there are,1631.279,4.561 | |
trends for authenticity uh you know,1632.84,4.68 | |
selecting for women that don't have,1635.84,3.959 | |
breast augmentation or liposuction,1637.52,4.019 | |
um there are even magazines that ban,1639.799,5.641 | |
Cosmetics let alone uh computer touching,1641.539,6.24 | |
up images via computer that being said,1645.44,3.78 | |
there's plenty of people that use the,1647.779,3.061 | |
automatic you know filters for,1649.22,2.76 | |
everything now,1650.84,5.12 | |
I suspect that with the rise of AI,1651.98,6.6 | |
generated images it's like yes there is,1655.96,4.3 | |
something that is aesthetically perfect,1658.58,5.04 | |
about you know this uh you know CGI,1660.26,5.94 | |
model this computer AI model but then,1663.62,4.08 | |
it's just like I don't know about I,1666.2,2.76 | |
don't know about anyone else but like I,1667.7,2.52 | |
got tired of that real fast it's like,1668.96,3.0 | |
okay I know that this is this is not a,1670.22,2.88 | |
real person,1671.96,2.4 | |
um and so it goes back to that,1673.1,3.78 | |
intangible value of human Aesthetics of,1674.36,4.98 | |
knowing that you're like whether it's uh,1676.88,4.26 | |
you know a dress that was actually made,1679.34,4.38 | |
by a real human uh and worn by a real,1681.14,4.8 | |
human there's just something more,1683.72,4.319 | |
grounding about that kind of thing again,1685.94,4.32 | |
I think that some people won't care and,1688.039,4.201 | |
some people will prefer the machines but,1690.26,3.24 | |
there are going to be lots of us who,1692.24,3.059 | |
actually prefer the real the real deal,1693.5,2.76 | |
as well,1695.299,3.301 | |
but also like Project Runway would be,1696.26,4.68 | |
super boring if it was just robots I,1698.6,4.62 | |
don't know that's just my opinion,1700.94,4.979 | |
um this one is like really interesting,1703.22,6.0 | |
so I actually saw her on not in and not,1705.919,5.221 | |
in person but I saw a documentary about,1709.22,3.54 | |
her years ago,1711.14,3.0 | |
um she's a she was like the youngest,1712.76,4.019 | |
funeral directory director in uh Britain,1714.14,6.24 | |
uh at the time and I was just like wow,1716.779,5.101 | |
that's a really interesting profession,1720.38,3.659 | |
and so it just really stuck with me but,1721.88,4.32 | |
like the tldr is like imagine a robot,1724.039,4.5 | |
riding a eulogy for your mom,1726.2,3.78 | |
um that would be kind of weird and of,1728.539,3.24 | |
course like there was the what was it,1729.98,4.679 | |
the the pastor in Germany recently like,1731.779,4.38 | |
delivered a sermon that was written by,1734.659,3.9 | |
chat GPT like I think that it's gonna,1736.159,4.981 | |
happen especially once we develop like,1738.559,5.581 | |
relationships with machines as like I,1741.14,4.139 | |
said like I wouldn't mind having,1744.14,3.419 | |
Commander Data as a friend and so like,1745.279,4.02 | |
if I had Commander Data as a friend and,1747.559,3.901 | |
I died I wouldn't mind if he eulogized,1749.299,4.561 | |
uh he wrote a eulogy for me,1751.46,4.56 | |
um but that being said there is,1753.86,4.799 | |
something very deeply human about things,1756.02,6.3 | |
like birth and death uh grief and other,1758.659,7.321 | |
uh uh transitions in life right so say,1762.32,4.8 | |
for instance,1765.98,1.679 | |
um,1767.12,4.02 | |
uh palliative care end of Life Care uh,1767.659,6.181 | |
like uh I've actually had an interesting,1771.14,5.159 | |
conversation with an end of life Doula,1773.84,4.74 | |
um because they they it's a very deeply,1776.299,6.48 | |
spiritual uh kind of role and um you,1778.58,6.06 | |
know I think I think that yes there will,1782.779,4.14 | |
be some plenty of people who don't mind,1784.64,4.32 | |
or prefer the machine because of the,1786.919,3.961 | |
level of precision because because it's,1788.96,3.78 | |
less emotional or because they might,1790.88,3.72 | |
perform better but also there's going to,1792.74,3.36 | |
be lots and lots of people who just,1794.6,4.199 | |
really strongly prefer humans to be part,1796.1,6.179 | |
of these intrinsically human experiences,1798.799,6.12 | |
uh shared outdoor experiences so this is,1802.279,4.081 | |
something one of my best friends in high,1804.919,4.38 | |
school actually she went to become a,1806.36,5.52 | |
raft guide while she was in college up,1809.299,5.1 | |
in the mountains and um like that was a,1811.88,3.899 | |
really cool job,1814.399,3.481 | |
but it's also the kind of thing of the,1815.779,5.041 | |
shared stress of Adventure the shared,1817.88,5.1 | |
struggle is actually a really important,1820.82,4.5 | |
part of the experience and if you have a,1822.98,4.679 | |
robot with you that that was never in,1825.32,4.68 | |
danger and could you know pull you out,1827.659,4.74 | |
of danger without any risk to itself,1830.0,4.44 | |
that kind of lessens the experience a,1832.399,4.801 | |
little bit uh and so like yeah you might,1834.44,5.28 | |
have raft guides that have like a spare,1837.2,4.26 | |
robot to help you fish someone out of,1839.72,3.24 | |
the water if they fall in,1841.46,3.48 | |
uh but that being said you're still,1842.96,3.54 | |
going to want to have the human who has,1844.94,3.78 | |
hiked up the mountain and struggled and,1846.5,3.6 | |
knows what you're going through and,1848.72,4.14 | |
knows what that experience is like and,1850.1,4.26 | |
can help you get the most out of that,1852.86,5.22 | |
experience uh there are uh tour guides,1854.36,7.679 | |
and and Excursion leaders uh and this is,1858.08,5.579 | |
actually something that's really popular,1862.039,4.441 | |
with the elite right now uh what was it,1863.659,5.52 | |
as brown something there's there there's,1866.48,4.14 | |
multiple companies out there that,1869.179,3.541 | |
basically you give them like a million,1870.62,3.48 | |
dollars and they take you on like the,1872.72,3.6 | |
coolest Excursion that you've ever been,1874.1,4.559 | |
on and uh the description for one of,1876.32,5.219 | |
them was like you know it's it's a it's,1878.659,4.38 | |
an adventure that's so intense that,1881.539,3.661 | |
it'll be seared into your memory it's,1883.039,3.541 | |
like that sounds painful but you know,1885.2,3.12 | |
what if you're bored and Rich and you,1886.58,2.88 | |
have more money than you know what to do,1888.32,4.079 | |
with have at it uh so point being though,1889.46,5.459 | |
is that there will always be demand for,1892.399,5.701 | |
those really intense uh visceral outdoor,1894.919,5.401 | |
experiences and Adventures,1898.1,5.4 | |
journalism is something that uh I think,1900.32,5.88 | |
that it particularly with the rise of AI,1903.5,4.98 | |
and disinformation a lot of people,1906.2,4.68 | |
myself included already like I'm just,1908.48,7.74 | |
gonna tap out of of uh of you know AI,1910.88,7.799 | |
generated news and stuff like I want to,1916.22,4.86 | |
I want to have a parasocial relationship,1918.679,5.88 | |
with a reporter or a news commentator or,1921.08,6.06 | |
investigator that I trust who does the,1924.559,4.86 | |
work of sifting through all the all the,1927.14,5.22 | |
noise and tells me what they think what,1929.419,5.041 | |
they truly think and feel so this again,1932.36,3.9 | |
comes down to that emotional resonance,1934.46,3.54 | |
that was mentioned at the beginning,1936.26,5.22 | |
which it's like hey I want a human to,1938.0,5.279 | |
tell me what they think about this news,1941.48,4.079 | |
I want a human to tell me how they feel,1943.279,3.601 | |
about the way that things are going,1945.559,4.081 | |
because that's what I connect with some,1946.88,4.14 | |
people again like I said some people,1949.64,2.639 | |
aren't going to Care some people will,1951.02,4.379 | |
prefer the ai's unbiased analysis,1952.279,4.981 | |
because again there's already evidence,1955.399,3.961 | |
emerging that we can make large language,1957.26,4.08 | |
models less by highest than pretty much,1959.36,3.84 | |
99 of humans,1961.34,6.439 | |
so like yes I will I absolutely uh,1963.2,7.859 | |
appreciate that existence because I want,1967.779,6.581 | |
you know the AI to look at all sides and,1971.059,6.061 | |
you know give me the ability to like say,1974.36,4.26 | |
okay well what is,1977.12,3.059 | |
you know what is the story what's,1978.62,3.539 | |
missing what are the gaps you know what,1980.179,3.901 | |
is this side saying what does it mean,1982.159,4.38 | |
the AI will help us analyze all these,1984.08,4.44 | |
things which is great but I still need,1986.539,4.5 | |
that intrinsic human connection to tell,1988.52,4.74 | |
me like okay like what does this mean to,1991.039,4.02 | |
me as a person,1993.26,3.72 | |
care profession so this is another one,1995.059,3.901 | |
that's like kind of dubious because like,1996.98,4.14 | |
and I'll talk about this uh more again,1998.96,4.74 | |
at the end once we get to Medical Care,2001.12,5.76 | |
uh but basically I suspect that there,2003.7,4.8 | |
will still that there will be a durable,2006.88,3.48 | |
preference that some people will just,2008.5,3.84 | |
say you know what like I know that,2010.36,3.659 | |
there's you can get a robot Nanny and,2012.34,3.179 | |
they're technically better but I still,2014.019,4.081 | |
just prefer you know to hire the the,2015.519,5.341 | |
neighborhood babysitter you know for a,2018.1,4.199 | |
little Johnny or whatever,2020.86,2.58 | |
um that they just prefer that,2022.299,4.141 | |
authenticity again it comes down to it,2023.44,4.619 | |
it's really just preference it's not a,2026.44,4.5 | |
matter of what machines can or can't do,2028.059,4.381 | |
because we're again we're assuming that,2030.94,3.239 | |
the machines are ultimately going to be,2032.44,3.42 | |
hyper realistic,2034.179,4.261 | |
um but the idea is what is it that,2035.86,4.86 | |
people are willing to pay for and I,2038.44,3.78 | |
suspect that there will always be people,2040.72,4.26 | |
willing to pay for humans in care,2042.22,5.879 | |
professions uh now that might change,2044.98,6.119 | |
over time particularly if the economic,2048.099,5.76 | |
uh economic shift like if hiring a human,2051.099,4.981 | |
to do the job costs 10 000 times as much,2053.859,4.74 | |
as it costs to have a human do the job,2056.08,4.62 | |
that's a pretty steep bill,2058.599,4.8 | |
but also if the quality of care that,2060.7,4.679 | |
machines can render is also a thousand,2063.399,4.381 | |
times better and safer and more reliable,2065.379,5.101 | |
we might actually see a collapse of that,2067.78,5.399 | |
demand not sure but I do I do suspect,2070.48,4.74 | |
that some people regardless of how,2073.179,4.561 | |
sophisticated robots become will still,2075.22,4.139 | |
prefer humans,2077.74,3.419 | |
Okay so,2079.359,3.421 | |
I kept alluding to like medical,2081.159,3.661 | |
professions and this is where uh,2082.78,3.119 | |
actually I don't know how this is going,2084.82,3.299 | |
to be received some of these ideas I,2085.899,3.48 | |
actually got from you guys in the,2088.119,3.24 | |
comments so maybe maybe you guys are,2089.379,3.421 | |
already on board but some of these might,2091.359,3.06 | |
kind of be a little a little bit,2092.8,3.9 | |
contentious a little bit spicy but let's,2094.419,3.901 | |
talk about you know we talked about a,2096.7,3.06 | |
whole bunch of jobs that will probably,2098.32,4.5 | |
stick around forever uh now let's talk,2099.76,6.24 | |
about jobs that maybe should go away,2102.82,6.24 | |
all right so first uh some of you are I,2106.0,4.619 | |
can just hear like cheering and,2109.06,3.18 | |
screaming at your screen like yes get,2110.619,5.48 | |
rid of the politicians uh there's a few,2112.24,6.66 | |
primary reasons to do this so one,2116.099,4.48 | |
remember the the thought experiment here,2118.9,2.939 | |
is that machines are going to be,2120.579,3.421 | |
intellectually morally ethically and,2121.839,4.141 | |
creatively Superior to humans in all,2124.0,3.3 | |
ways,2125.98,4.98 | |
from Strictly a structural standpoint if,2127.3,5.76 | |
machines get to that point it would,2130.96,4.139 | |
probably be unethical to allow humans to,2133.06,4.019 | |
make decisions that influence other,2135.099,3.661 | |
humans just by virtue of the fact that,2137.079,3.121 | |
the machine can make a better decision,2138.76,4.44 | |
and a more robust argument that's going,2140.2,4.74 | |
to be more fair and more Equitable and,2143.2,3.96 | |
less biased now,2144.94,4.74 | |
just just from performance standards,2147.16,4.679 | |
that's to me that's enough of a reason,2149.68,4.86 | |
to replace politicians with machines if,2151.839,4.561 | |
they get to that point there are more,2154.54,4.079 | |
reasons than than that though uh not the,2156.4,4.28 | |
least of which is conflicts of interest,2158.619,4.201 | |
politicians often make a lot of money,2160.68,3.7 | |
while they're in politics at least here,2162.82,4.5 | |
in America so that's like hmm maybe,2164.38,6.0 | |
maybe they don't actually have uh the,2167.32,5.4 | |
best interests of their constituents in,2170.38,5.699 | |
mind whereas if we design AGI correctly,2172.72,5.639 | |
as long as it has power or whatever it's,2176.079,5.161 | |
trying to optimize for like it's not,2178.359,4.26 | |
going to have the same conflicts of,2181.24,4.92 | |
interest another thing or another aspect,2182.619,5.881 | |
of that is dubious motivations,2186.16,4.56 | |
some politicians want power just for the,2188.5,4.14 | |
sake of power which it's like that's,2190.72,4.44 | |
maybe not the best reason that uh,2192.64,5.76 | |
someone should be given power uh another,2195.16,5.04 | |
thing is cognitive biases as I mentioned,2198.4,4.92 | |
Prejudice and uh and worst of all the,2200.2,4.379 | |
most Insidious one that people don't,2203.32,3.84 | |
talk about enough is trauma politics so,2204.579,4.101 | |
this is basically someone with,2207.16,4.86 | |
unaddressed childhood trauma or PTSD and,2208.68,5.02 | |
they're basically seeking power and,2212.02,3.78 | |
control and influence as a means of,2213.7,5.22 | |
self-soothing whether it's their trauma,2215.8,6.48 | |
resulted in personality disorders or,2218.92,6.439 | |
other kinds of reactionary sensitivities,2222.28,5.76 | |
uh yeah I mean,2225.359,5.441 | |
humans have a basket of flaws that it's,2228.04,4.98 | |
like if we can get rid of that and have,2230.8,5.22 | |
machines that make more Equitable uh,2233.02,5.76 | |
unbiased and fair decisions and that,2236.02,4.38 | |
they make better decisions that are more,2238.78,3.9 | |
rigorously thought through maybe maybe,2240.4,4.02 | |
we should focus on getting rid of,2242.68,3.72 | |
politicians in the long run,2244.42,4.86 | |
again this is a pretty high bar uh and,2246.4,5.58 | |
it will take a lot of time to convince,2249.28,4.079 | |
people and get them on board but if,2251.98,3.54 | |
again if the track record proves it out,2253.359,5.401 | |
over many many years that that machines,2255.52,5.7 | |
are just better and here's the thing is,2258.76,5.46 | |
I already know that in in in diplomatic,2261.22,4.26 | |
core and state departments and,2264.22,3.119 | |
governments they're already using chat,2265.48,4.56 | |
GPT to help make decisions the AI is,2267.339,6.661 | |
already influencing politics uh so like,2270.04,6.299 | |
it's gonna happen by degrees I guess is,2274.0,5.64 | |
the point is uh you know right now the,2276.339,5.821 | |
AI is the tool but then soon we're going,2279.64,4.02 | |
to have semi-autonomous tools and,2282.16,2.52 | |
eventually we're going to have fully,2283.66,3.06 | |
autonomous tools and then once the tools,2284.68,3.72 | |
are fully autonomous it's like well why,2286.72,4.2 | |
is the human there,2288.4,4.8 | |
this one I think is probably going to be,2290.92,4.919 | |
uh pretty contentious for some people,2293.2,4.26 | |
and some people are going to be super on,2295.839,3.301 | |
board with it like I said I get a lot of,2297.46,3.36 | |
these ideas from the comments,2299.14,4.56 | |
but uh basically police and soldiers,2300.82,4.68 | |
have the same flaws as any other humans,2303.7,4.2 | |
we're all humans they make mistakes,2305.5,4.02 | |
regardless of how well trained they are,2307.9,3.9 | |
and also some of them joined the police,2309.52,4.98 | |
in the military for the wrong reasons uh,2311.8,4.26 | |
because they want Power because they,2314.5,3.3 | |
want to feel Macho because they want to,2316.06,3.6 | |
harm people there are literally people,2317.8,3.42 | |
who join the military and join the,2319.66,3.84 | |
police because they want to have an,2321.22,6.359 | |
opportunity to shoot someone and yes in,2323.5,6.06 | |
the past when you when you want to hire,2327.579,4.861 | |
someone who is ready willing and able to,2329.56,6.059 | |
use Force to hurt someone else like you,2332.44,6.659 | |
actually need that if you're in a very,2335.619,6.541 | |
cruel contentious combative and barbaric,2339.099,5.041 | |
world I think we should strive to build,2342.16,4.98 | |
a less barbaric world and so then that,2344.14,6.3 | |
says like okay well if you build a robot,2347.14,5.699 | |
army that follows the Rules of,2350.44,4.679 | |
Engagement to the letter,2352.839,4.02 | |
you could actually really drastically,2355.119,4.74 | |
reduce the rate of rape and torture and,2356.859,6.0 | |
war crimes and other things now the big,2359.859,6.0 | |
caveat here is that uh that is unless,2362.859,5.041 | |
the robot army is actually explicitly,2365.859,4.381 | |
programmed to do those things or allowed,2367.9,4.439 | |
to do those things uh because this is,2370.24,4.2 | |
actually the explicit policy of some,2372.339,4.141 | |
Nations out there to deliberately,2374.44,4.08 | |
inflict suffering on civilian,2376.48,4.8 | |
populations to break their spirit so,2378.52,4.2 | |
this is something that it's like it,2381.28,4.2 | |
could go either way but at least if you,2382.72,5.639 | |
remove the human aspect of it where Some,2385.48,4.859 | |
Humans Do it for the wrong reasons then,2388.359,4.26 | |
it's up to political decisions but again,2390.339,4.861 | |
if we have robot politicians who don't,2392.619,3.96 | |
really care about inflicting human,2395.2,2.879 | |
suffering they're not going to program,2396.579,3.721 | |
the robot army to inflict suffering and,2398.079,4.081 | |
ideally we don't have it all anyways,2400.3,4.799 | |
because the idea is like if you can,2402.16,4.919 | |
figure it all out in simulation and you,2405.099,3.781 | |
know what the other side is capable of,2407.079,3.901 | |
and so on and so forth it should ideally,2408.88,4.56 | |
never come to force anyways,2410.98,5.58 | |
this is a this is a pretty strongly held,2413.44,5.28 | |
personal opinion so I'll be curious to,2416.56,4.5 | |
see how people react to this in the long,2418.72,4.08 | |
run and remember the assumption that,2421.06,3.539 | |
we're making is that robots will be,2422.8,4.02 | |
superior to humans in all ways,2424.599,4.401 | |
and that AGI will be intellectually,2426.82,4.5 | |
creatively morally and ethically,2429.0,4.66 | |
superior to humans as well as that,2431.32,4.38 | |
evidence is already emerging,2433.66,6.0 | |
Transportation so again if machines have,2435.7,6.3 | |
a uh have a proven track record that,2439.66,3.6 | |
means that they are safer and more,2442.0,4.079 | |
reliable than humans it would probably,2443.26,5.04 | |
be unethical to allow humans to drive,2446.079,6.361 | |
and to fly uh and uh we all have lots,2448.3,6.0 | |
and lots of experiences of Highly,2452.44,3.659 | |
dubious drivers who probably shouldn't,2454.3,5.819 | |
be on the road uh you know I think that,2456.099,7.5 | |
uh I I for one really look forward to uh,2460.119,6.901 | |
full uh full fully autonomous like level,2463.599,6.361 | |
five self-driving cars uh because when,2467.02,4.74 | |
we get to that one driving is going to,2469.96,4.74 | |
be a lot safer for everyone it's also,2471.76,3.96 | |
going to be a lot more accessible,2474.7,2.639 | |
because it's going to Super drive down,2475.72,3.72 | |
the cost of driving,2477.339,4.441 | |
um which is going to open up the world,2479.44,4.98 | |
for a lot of people who either can't,2481.78,5.579 | |
afford to drive or are too infirm to,2484.42,4.74 | |
drive on their own or whatever because,2487.359,4.381 | |
because physical personal Mobility is,2489.16,4.199 | |
actually a really big component of,2491.74,3.599 | |
individual liberty anyways that's a,2493.359,4.621 | |
whole other can of worms but point being,2495.339,4.74 | |
is that in this case where we're,2497.98,4.139 | |
imagining that machines are far superior,2500.079,4.741 | |
to humans in pretty much every way it,2502.119,4.681 | |
would probably be illegal to allow a,2504.82,3.84 | |
human to drive it which would then,2506.8,6.26 | |
materially put other humans in danger,2508.66,4.4 | |
hazardous jobs is another thing and I,2513.28,3.86 | |
feel like this is pretty uncontroversial,2515.38,4.92 | |
uh basically just imagine this there's a,2517.14,5.199 | |
robot firefighter that it doesn't matter,2520.3,4.44 | |
if it gets you know burnt to a crisp,2522.339,4.681 | |
because like it's programmed not to have,2524.74,4.379 | |
a sense of self-preservation but it's,2527.02,4.079 | |
also faster stronger and has better,2529.119,4.441 | |
reflexes than a real human firefighter,2531.099,4.74 | |
which one do you want pulling you out of,2533.56,4.32 | |
a burning building the answer seems,2535.839,3.961 | |
pretty obvious to me,2537.88,3.719 | |
um you know and this is demonstrated in,2539.8,4.62 | |
all kinds of video games and and and TV,2541.599,4.26 | |
of course you know my favorite example,2544.42,3.9 | |
is uh is Commander Data from Star Trek,2545.859,5.161 | |
but this was also an iRobot right where,2548.32,4.86 | |
like the robot saw like an accident,2551.02,4.44 | |
happen and they immediately jumped into,2553.18,4.919 | |
the water to pull people out of the car,2555.46,5.159 | |
right and Will Smith of course in in,2558.099,3.961 | |
that movie he was been out of shape,2560.619,3.541 | |
because the robot saved him and not the,2562.06,4.62 | |
little girl but if it was only humans he,2564.16,4.32 | |
would have just died too right so that's,2566.68,3.24 | |
I mean the survivor's guilt which is,2568.48,3.359 | |
that's his own problem but point being,2569.92,5.22 | |
is that for any kind of hazardous job I,2571.839,4.621 | |
think that it would probably be,2575.14,3.719 | |
unethical to allow humans to do those,2576.46,5.399 | |
jobs if robots can do them better and,2578.859,6.24 | |
and safer and so on uh medicine so this,2581.859,6.121 | |
is this is one that uh is probably going,2585.099,5.841 | |
to be pretty uh controversial but again,2587.98,6.18 | |
imagine that that that computers and,2590.94,5.44 | |
machines and AGI and robots have a,2594.16,5.04 | |
better Trek track record than humans,2596.38,6.239 | |
even if you prefer a human doctor in the,2599.2,6.419 | |
case where machines are better,2602.619,5.941 | |
than than human doctors in all ways I,2605.619,4.621 | |
think it would probably be illegal for,2608.56,4.08 | |
humans to practice medicine,2610.24,5.16 | |
and uh I remember talking about this on,2612.64,4.86 | |
Reddit a couple years ago when I was,2615.4,5.58 | |
learning to use chat gpt3 and I I,2617.5,4.859 | |
pointed out to someone who was learning,2620.98,2.94 | |
to be a radiologist or something I was,2622.359,4.441 | |
like Hey like there's a tool here that,2623.92,4.32 | |
can already do all the things that,2626.8,3.96 | |
you're doing and it it it's it's faster,2628.24,4.379 | |
and and you know the person just,2630.76,3.839 | |
completely went ballistics you know,2632.619,3.96 | |
rattling off about like it would be,2634.599,3.961 | |
impossible for a machine to ever,2636.579,5.52 | |
understand like you know what X Y and Z,2638.56,5.4 | |
things mean and you just rattled off a,2642.099,3.361 | |
bunch of stuff and it's like yeah you,2643.96,3.18 | |
just plug all that into chat GPT right,2645.46,2.879 | |
now and it'll tell you exactly what it,2647.14,2.34 | |
means,2648.339,4.98 | |
um and the the the evidence is building,2649.48,6.9 | |
um I love this quotation oops come back,2653.319,5.461 | |
uh I'm stunned to say better than many,2656.38,4.199 | |
it's better than many doctors I've,2658.78,4.62 | |
observed this was Dr Isaac cohane,2660.579,4.981 | |
um when he was talking about gpt4 and,2663.4,4.08 | |
this is a computer scientist and,2665.56,5.7 | |
physician from Harvard right so this is,2667.48,4.859 | |
like,2671.26,3.0 | |
cream of the crop already saying that,2672.339,3.721 | |
like yeah this this machine is already,2674.26,4.62 | |
better than many actual doctors so I,2676.06,6.0 | |
suspect that uh that medical professions,2678.88,5.1 | |
are going to go the way the dinosaurs,2682.06,4.38 | |
just by virtue of the fact that humans,2683.98,4.5 | |
will just not be able to compete not to,2686.44,3.659 | |
mention the fact that human doctors are,2688.48,3.42 | |
ludicrously expensive,2690.099,3.061 | |
um so this is what I mean when I say,2691.9,3.0 | |
like Medical Care could go to five,2693.16,3.06 | |
dollars a year,2694.9,4.02 | |
because if you if you get rid of the,2696.22,4.98 | |
need for most hospitals due to,2698.92,4.02 | |
preventive care and regenerative,2701.2,4.08 | |
medicine you get rid of the need for,2702.94,4.379 | |
nurses and doctors and phlebotomists,2705.28,4.38 | |
because you have Superior robots then,2707.319,4.141 | |
it's like medical care just is an,2709.66,3.3 | |
outpatient thing that you you know like,2711.46,4.32 | |
you go to the pharmacy uh you know once,2712.96,4.859 | |
a year and they'll they'll you know take,2715.78,3.839 | |
a blood sample and say okay here's your,2717.819,4.861 | |
medicines for the year go home right and,2719.619,5.101 | |
oh and you won't need to be on medicines,2722.68,3.24 | |
chronically because they're going to,2724.72,3.18 | |
actually fix the underlying problem and,2725.92,4.08 | |
cure you and so then it's like oh here's,2727.9,3.6 | |
an injection to fix this problem that,2730.0,3.18 | |
you have you're good to go for the next,2731.5,3.599 | |
10 years that's kind of how I think,2733.18,4.919 | |
medicine is going to go and so uh this,2735.099,4.921 | |
somewhat maybe controversial opinion is,2738.099,3.781 | |
that eventually I think that we should,2740.02,4.98 | |
probably actively try and get rid of uh,2741.88,5.82 | |
medical uh professions on the human,2745.0,4.74 | |
scale all right so here's some,2747.7,3.48 | |
conclusions,2749.74,3.66 | |
Let's uh let's try and pry that Overton,2751.18,4.8 | |
window open just a little bit more,2753.4,4.5 | |
um automation resistant occupations are,2755.98,3.42 | |
those that humans will always be willing,2757.9,3.3 | |
to pay for regardless of machine's,2759.4,4.38 | |
capacity and capability so again there's,2761.2,5.34 | |
many reasons for that uh the intangible,2763.78,4.5 | |
value the emotional resonance the,2766.54,4.2 | |
connections now the jobs that should go,2768.28,4.02 | |
away are those that concern and,2770.74,3.119 | |
potentially infringe upon the safety and,2772.3,3.9 | |
rights of other humans because again all,2773.859,4.381 | |
humans are flawed all humans are biased,2776.2,3.48 | |
and if machines can demonstrate that,2778.24,2.94 | |
they are less flawed and less biased,2779.68,4.62 | |
than humans then they will have a better,2781.18,5.58 | |
track record in terms of safety and,2784.3,5.039 | |
respecting human rights and and,2786.76,4.8 | |
like I just think that like,2789.339,4.561 | |
in the in those cases it would not be,2791.56,5.22 | |
ethical to allow humans into jobs that,2793.9,4.679 | |
could infringe on the safety and rights,2796.78,4.74 | |
of other humans uh and I don't know if,2798.579,4.5 | |
that's controversial let me know what,2801.52,2.64 | |
you guys think in the comments you,2803.079,3.061 | |
always do anyways so yeah I hope you,2804.16,6.56 | |
enjoyed uh thanks for watching cheers,2806.14,4.58 | |