davidshapiro_youtube_transcripts
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Biological Immortality by 2030 Social Economic Implications Some Predictions_transcript.csv
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hey everyone David Shapiro here with a,1.079,5.461 | |
video so quick update I'm going to try,3.6,5.76 | |
and start releasing on every Sunday uh,6.54,5.22 | |
followed by a live stream q a they do,9.36,4.439 | |
that on the Y files and it's super lots,11.76,3.12 | |
of fun,13.799,4.021 | |
um and I did a random uh live stream q a,14.88,5.34 | |
uh just the other night and I had a lot,17.82,5.219 | |
of fun so like why not okay so anyways,20.22,4.979 | |
today's video is infinite life,23.039,5.281 | |
biological immortality by 2030.,25.199,5.4 | |
so for some background,28.32,4.739 | |
um uh Ray Kurzweil uh recently was,30.599,4.441 | |
quoted on Popular Mechanics as having,33.059,4.201 | |
said we are on track to achieve,35.04,6.24 | |
biological immortality by 2030. so,37.26,5.819 | |
there's a few component contributing,41.28,3.779 | |
factors that lead to this uh conclusion,43.079,4.5 | |
so first obviously exponential rise of,45.059,4.561 | |
AI we can solve problems science is,47.579,4.8 | |
happening faster etc etc then you get,49.62,4.5 | |
compounding returns,52.379,4.081 | |
so some of those compounding returns are,54.12,4.86 | |
things like Alpha fold mRNA vaccines and,56.46,5.4 | |
so on combined with AI then the AI is,58.98,4.8 | |
being used to make better dyes for,61.86,4.32 | |
machine learning models so on and so,63.78,5.64 | |
forth then there's nanotech so there was,66.18,7.5 | |
a recent thing on um out of Israel where,69.42,6.96 | |
uh tiny you know nanoparticle size,73.68,5.28 | |
robots were able to track and capture,76.38,5.279 | |
individual cells and then Quantum,78.96,6.18 | |
Computing so those four things are all,81.659,5.701 | |
contributing to say okay we're on an,85.14,5.58 | |
exponential ramp up uh longevity escape,87.36,5.7 | |
velocity probably has been achieved or,90.72,4.8 | |
will be very soon and for those who,93.06,4.32 | |
don't know longevity escape velocity is,95.52,5.099 | |
the idea that life extending therapies,97.38,5.699 | |
are going faster than real time so that,100.619,4.201 | |
means for every year that you age you,103.079,3.54 | |
get more than a year back in terms of,104.82,4.74 | |
medical breakthroughs,106.619,4.981 | |
so all this is to say is that we're,109.56,4.86 | |
heading towards an iPhone moment of,111.6,4.979 | |
longevity medicine or regenerative,114.42,3.12 | |
medicine,116.579,3.9 | |
and so what I mean by that is that uh,117.54,5.039 | |
new technologies tend to combine in,120.479,4.621 | |
unexpected ways which create which,122.579,5.941 | |
unlock entirely new domains and uh and,125.1,5.879 | |
markets and so on so in the case of the,128.52,4.68 | |
iPhone it had to do with miniaturization,130.979,3.721 | |
you know miniaturization of touch,133.2,3.44 | |
screens miniaturizations of compute,134.7,4.14 | |
Advanced Battery Technology and wireless,136.64,4.48 | |
internet so those three things combined,138.84,4.32 | |
to create the possibility for the iPhone,141.12,4.14 | |
and then once it exists it's like well,143.16,4.5 | |
duh of course that's the way to go,145.26,5.16 | |
so when you look at the combination of,147.66,5.64 | |
alpha fold protein science mRNA vaccines,150.42,5.52 | |
DNA printers artificial intelligence,153.3,5.4 | |
Quantum Computing Material Science all,155.94,4.2 | |
of this is almost certainly to to,158.7,4.2 | |
combine in unexpected ways and create,160.14,5.34 | |
entirely new possibilities neurolink,162.9,4.8 | |
might be like Child's Play compared to,165.48,3.92 | |
what's actually possible,167.7,5.34 | |
reality is often Stranger Than Fiction,169.4,5.8 | |
uh before we dive into the rest of the,173.04,3.72 | |
video I just want to take a quick break,175.2,3.36 | |
to say that uh today's video is,176.76,3.72 | |
sponsored by all of you my patreon,178.56,3.36 | |
supporters,180.48,3.6 | |
um and just this morning well by the,181.92,3.24 | |
time you're watching this it'll be like,184.08,2.76 | |
yesterday or whenever,185.16,5.82 | |
um a morning in the past uh I added a,186.84,7.2 | |
Discord server uh exclusive for my,190.98,4.5 | |
patreon supporters and it's already,194.04,3.54 | |
popping there's already like 150 people,195.48,4.02 | |
uh in it,197.58,4.62 | |
um it is uh really sharp people which,199.5,4.739 | |
doesn't surprise me um but great,202.2,4.2 | |
conversations over there already any,204.239,5.161 | |
patreon tier will get you access but I,206.4,6.0 | |
do have some exclusive tiers uh for,209.4,5.64 | |
higher uh higher tier patreon supporters,212.4,4.44 | |
just that way you get a little bit more,215.04,3.839 | |
kind of exclusive access and I know who,216.84,3.899 | |
to prioritize,218.879,3.601 | |
um but yeah so Jump On In if you'd like,220.739,4.981 | |
and with that back to the show so for,222.48,5.22 | |
the sake of argument let I'm not gonna,225.72,3.9 | |
I'm not gonna spend any time unpacking,227.7,4.02 | |
the problems that need to be solved,229.62,3.78 | |
because there's millions of problems,231.72,4.2 | |
that need to be solved for uh biological,233.4,5.399 | |
immortality by 2030 or indefinite,235.92,5.52 | |
lifespan as um people like Aubry degree,238.799,4.921 | |
call it but let's just assume that it,241.44,3.9 | |
happens let's assume that Rey's,243.72,3.239 | |
prediction is correct,245.34,3.959 | |
where do we go from here,246.959,6.301 | |
so I want to unpack a few ideas this is,249.299,6.601 | |
kind of how I prognosticate so let's,253.26,5.4 | |
take a look at Social reactions so how,255.9,4.559 | |
is society going to react on an,258.66,3.96 | |
individual basis are people going to,260.459,4.321 | |
accept it or reject it and if they do,262.62,4.44 | |
what does that look like number two is,264.78,4.02 | |
let's look at the economic impact is,267.06,4.62 | |
this going to help equality or or move,268.8,5.399 | |
us towards inequality number three is,271.68,5.28 | |
we're going to look at Lifestyles so you,274.199,4.801 | |
know the I I had this slide and someone,276.96,3.84 | |
asked on the live stream are we just,279.0,3.72 | |
going to be hedonists if we live forever,280.8,3.66 | |
and we can abuse our bodies or are we,282.72,3.18 | |
going to do something else so I have,284.46,4.2 | |
some ideas about that number four is,285.9,5.28 | |
innovation or stagnation so this is at a,288.66,4.86 | |
species level so one thing that people,291.18,3.78 | |
are afraid of and they've explored this,293.52,5.76 | |
in fiction is if we if we live forever,294.96,6.179 | |
we might become very risk averse and we,299.28,4.199 | |
just kind of become decadent and and,301.139,4.021 | |
self-indulgent and we kind of don't go,303.479,4.741 | |
anywhere again I got some ideas and I'll,305.16,4.14 | |
let you know,308.22,4.44 | |
uh five and six basically I'm gonna do,309.3,5.22 | |
some forecasting to see what life is,312.66,3.9 | |
going to look like in 200 years in 2000,314.52,4.56 | |
years obviously most of my predictions,316.56,4.199 | |
well I want to say most many of my,319.08,3.6 | |
predictions are hilariously wrong but,320.759,3.301 | |
it's food for thought so let's Dive,322.68,2.34 | |
Right In,324.06,4.02 | |
so on the social reaction part,325.02,4.86 | |
um many people I suspect that many,328.08,3.839 | |
people will reject immortality for,329.88,4.259 | |
Spiritual philosophical and ethical,331.919,4.981 | |
reasons but also many people will,334.139,4.861 | |
embrace it this is assuming that it's a,336.9,4.56 | |
choice I I suspect it will be a choice I,339.0,4.08 | |
don't think anyone's going to be to have,341.46,3.72 | |
immortality inflicted on them or,343.08,3.66 | |
indefinite lifespan inflicted on them,345.18,3.9 | |
that would be deeply unethical,346.74,5.399 | |
uh but one of the key things is there's,349.08,5.04 | |
many cultures and many people have a,352.139,3.601 | |
belief that death is what gives meaning,354.12,3.66 | |
to life,355.74,4.799 | |
um my personal take is maybe this is,357.78,4.68 | |
just some self-soothing nonsense because,360.539,3.781 | |
we are trying to cope with the,362.46,4.2 | |
inevitability of death but if you have a,364.32,3.659 | |
pill that you can take or an injection,366.66,2.7 | |
that you can get that says suddenly you,367.979,2.881 | |
don't have to worry about death,369.36,2.94 | |
I think that a lot of people would take,370.86,4.559 | |
that because we're all a lot I mean,372.3,5.28 | |
pretty much everyone has a an intrinsic,375.419,4.041 | |
biological fear of death,377.58,4.02 | |
but it's inevitable and that's kind of,379.46,3.88 | |
like a that's kind of a sick joke of,381.6,3.439 | |
evolution,383.34,4.74 | |
those biological entities that are most,385.039,4.72 | |
afraid of death and work hardest to,388.08,3.899 | |
avoid it are more likely to pass on,389.759,4.081 | |
their genes but then they inevitably die,391.979,4.44 | |
anyways so that's kind of kind of kind,393.84,4.02 | |
of not cool,396.419,4.381 | |
now uh I think it's gonna split in,397.86,5.64 | |
basically two different directions so I,400.8,4.38 | |
called the first Direction the,403.5,3.6 | |
mortalitasi which I borrowed from uh,405.18,5.28 | |
from Dragon Age actually uh basically,407.1,6.0 | |
people that are that believe in death,410.46,4.14 | |
um people that maybe not obsessed with,413.1,3.12 | |
death but people that believe that,414.6,4.5 | |
mortality is good and then on the other,416.22,4.5 | |
hand are the methuselahs the people that,419.1,3.42 | |
want to live forever and that I borrowed,420.72,3.36 | |
from altered carbon so I can't take any,422.52,2.94 | |
credit for those terms I just said oh,424.08,3.48 | |
hey here's the term,425.46,5.34 | |
um so on the one hand you know when,427.56,5.34 | |
people might have made the argument oh,430.8,3.72 | |
well we were never meant to live this,432.9,3.359 | |
long anyways but nobody's really saying,434.52,3.239 | |
like well let's bring back tuberculosis,436.259,3.84 | |
right so if you can cure aging if you,437.759,3.84 | |
can cure heart disease if you can cure,440.099,3.781 | |
cancer if you if you look at these,441.599,4.32 | |
things as just diseases that are curable,443.88,4.02 | |
then it's not a matter of immortality,445.919,3.661 | |
because you we can't force someone to,447.9,3.06 | |
live rather you can still die from,449.58,4.26 | |
accidents right uh but you're not going,450.96,4.739 | |
to die from aging and age-related,453.84,3.12 | |
diseases,455.699,3.961 | |
so that's kind of the dichotomy so let's,456.96,5.82 | |
take a closer look at the social side so,459.66,6.439 | |
on the reject side on the on the on the,462.78,6.84 | |
mortalitasi side uh basically there's,466.099,5.741 | |
actually some really strong arguments to,469.62,4.74 | |
be made that aging and death are good,471.84,4.56 | |
and this is from an evolutionary,474.36,3.66 | |
perspective and I'm not going to read,476.4,3.12 | |
all of these to you,478.02,4.079 | |
um like one by one but basically whether,479.52,4.98 | |
you take it from a spiritual perspective,482.099,5.521 | |
or a scientific perspective there are,484.5,5.22 | |
some some compelling arguments to be,487.62,5.04 | |
made that maybe we are supposed to age,489.72,4.62 | |
and die,492.66,3.599 | |
uh to give way to the younger,494.34,4.259 | |
generations and so on and you know,496.259,4.261 | |
there's been bombings and riots over,498.599,4.261 | |
pro-life and and pro-choice abortion,500.52,4.38 | |
rights here in America uh you can,502.86,4.679 | |
imagine that there will probably be some,504.9,6.84 | |
uh some grumpiness over uh the rise of,507.539,6.481 | |
of biological immortality,511.74,5.219 | |
now on the accept side we also have some,514.02,4.68 | |
models from fiction,516.959,3.721 | |
um namely like the Baku from Star Trek,518.7,4.56 | |
insurrection which is a a village of,520.68,4.5 | |
people that they settled on a planet,523.26,3.12 | |
that made them Immortal and they,525.18,2.88 | |
basically formed an Eco Village before,526.38,4.139 | |
Eco Villages were cool and then the,528.06,4.32 | |
asari for Mass Effect now the asari for,530.519,3.361 | |
Mass Effect are not Immortal but they,532.38,3.84 | |
live a long time and so that's still a,533.88,4.5 | |
good exploration of okay well if you,536.22,4.08 | |
start thinking in terms of centuries in,538.38,4.74 | |
Millennia how does your life change,540.3,5.039 | |
so for those who accept biological,543.12,4.56 | |
immortality I suspect that some people,545.339,3.721 | |
are going to slow down and some people,547.68,3.24 | |
are going to speed up so on the slow,549.06,4.2 | |
downside you might say that like you're,550.92,3.539 | |
going to spend more time mastering the,553.26,4.139 | |
Arts and Sciences you might settle into,554.459,6.181 | |
comfortable routines for centuries on,557.399,6.06 | |
the speeding up side you might live Hard,560.64,4.8 | |
Play Hard right if you if you have,563.459,3.961 | |
regenerative medicine that allows you to,565.44,3.72 | |
do whatever you want you might just,567.42,3.78 | |
wander the globe,569.16,4.08 | |
um one of the biggest social changes I,571.2,3.9 | |
think though will be reproduction and,573.24,4.02 | |
family structure because think of it,575.1,3.12 | |
this way,577.26,3.36 | |
most people once they get to a certain,578.22,4.38 | |
age and they're empty nesters they kind,580.62,3.48 | |
of get lonely and bored right you know,582.6,4.08 | |
you you get a a single family home a,584.1,4.44 | |
nuclear family home and then your,586.68,3.24 | |
children grow up and they leave and then,588.54,3.84 | |
you have an empty house some couples are,589.92,4.08 | |
perfectly fine they're like oh finally,592.38,3.3 | |
the house is empty,594.0,3.959 | |
um and peace and quiet uh and some that,595.68,4.02 | |
some people will absolutely continue to,597.959,3.301 | |
live like that probably for centuries,599.7,5.34 | |
now on the other hand uh many people,601.26,5.699 | |
once they're empty nesters once they,605.04,3.96 | |
realize hey you know I've I've had my,606.959,3.121 | |
children and I don't want to have any,609.0,3.24 | |
more some people if if you're,610.08,4.14 | |
biologically 20 years old forever you,612.24,3.539 | |
might have more children I certainly,614.22,3.0 | |
expect some people are just going to be,615.779,3.421 | |
churning them out because that just,617.22,4.619 | |
seems to be what they want to do but I,619.2,4.44 | |
think other people will basically just,621.839,3.841 | |
kind of all gravitate towards,623.64,3.96 | |
um like retirement communities but since,625.68,3.36 | |
we're all going to live forever it's,627.6,4.38 | |
like retirement community okay sure so,629.04,4.739 | |
that's kind of the dichotomy there for,631.98,3.72 | |
the initial social reaction you know,633.779,4.261 | |
except versus reject,635.7,4.62 | |
now on the economic side,638.04,5.4 | |
you know the possibility of living,640.32,6.9 | |
forever uh is who this is super loaded,643.44,6.12 | |
because Here's the the big question is,647.22,5.4 | |
whether or not uh longevity medicine is,649.56,5.519 | |
cheap and accessible if longevity,652.62,4.74 | |
medicine is not cheap and accessible if,655.079,3.841 | |
it's reserved for the wealthy and the,657.36,3.24 | |
elite then we're going to end up with,658.92,3.72 | |
like God emperor of all mankind level,660.6,4.14 | |
and stuff,662.64,3.48 | |
um I don't believe that's the direction,664.74,2.76 | |
that it's going to go but I needed to,666.12,3.06 | |
address this because it is a very real,667.5,3.72 | |
possibility this was explored in the,669.18,3.839 | |
show alter of show and books altered,671.22,3.359 | |
carbon and that's where they got the,673.019,3.721 | |
term methuselahs so the meths or the,674.579,3.901 | |
methuselahs are the wealthy Elite who,676.74,3.9 | |
can afford all of the safeguards to,678.48,3.96 | |
ensure that they are Immortal now in,680.64,3.54 | |
Altered carbon not only are they,682.44,3.18 | |
biologically Immortal but they have,684.18,3.54 | |
backups and clones that they can you,685.62,4.98 | |
know transfer their Consciousness into,687.72,5.58 | |
um you know I'm not I'm not above saying,690.6,4.14 | |
maybe that's possible because when I,693.3,3.719 | |
talk about those compounding returns I,694.74,3.42 | |
don't know what's possible and I don't,697.019,2.701 | |
know what's impossible,698.16,5.58 | |
so if we have the capacity to live,699.72,6.299 | |
forever oh and so really important side,703.74,6.0 | |
note even if uh life-extending medicine,706.019,5.88 | |
is cheap and accessible for all that,709.74,4.2 | |
doesn't guarantee that we don't end up,711.899,3.601 | |
in a dystopian hell because you might,713.94,3.78 | |
still end up with concentrations of,715.5,4.98 | |
wealth and power and nobody really wants,717.72,4.559 | |
to live in a dystopian hell forever,720.48,4.38 | |
that's like the worst of Both Worlds so,722.279,4.021 | |
let's not do that,724.86,4.02 | |
okay so if we want to avoid that outcome,726.3,6.96 | |
and we want to move towards equality uh,728.88,6.6 | |
we have basically you have to assume,733.26,3.96 | |
that some people are going to want to,735.48,3.599 | |
accumulate wealth and power that's just,737.22,4.32 | |
human nature right that there there are,739.079,5.281 | |
there's a you there's absolutely always,741.54,4.919 | |
utility and having more money having,744.36,3.84 | |
more power even above and beyond what,746.459,4.081 | |
you actually need but the more money,748.2,3.84 | |
that you have the more options you have,750.54,3.96 | |
right and humans need autonomy and,752.04,4.38 | |
self-determination,754.5,3.3 | |
um so that's just you know Maslow's,756.42,2.76 | |
hierarchy of needs the more money you,757.8,3.0 | |
have the higher up on that you can get,759.18,3.06 | |
quicker,760.8,5.099 | |
so with that assumption the question,762.24,5.159 | |
then becomes how do the rest of us,765.899,3.361 | |
create and build and maintain a system,767.399,4.201 | |
that ensures that it's not too lopsided,769.26,4.079 | |
or that even if there are wealthy and,771.6,3.299 | |
powerful people they can't harm the rest,773.339,3.18 | |
of us,774.899,2.701 | |
so,776.519,3.0 | |
I'm not gonna say like you know seize,777.6,4.919 | |
the means of production however when I,779.519,5.461 | |
was having the the Q a uh the other,782.519,3.361 | |
night,784.98,2.7 | |
um people were talking about like using,785.88,4.38 | |
AI to manage resources to manage,787.68,4.56 | |
companies and so on and that's when a,790.26,4.199 | |
little like bell went off in my head and,792.24,4.14 | |
I was like wait that's what Dows are for,794.459,3.12 | |
so if you're not familiar with what a,796.38,4.199 | |
dow is it's a decentralized autonomous,797.579,6.301 | |
organization so a dow is uses blockchain,800.579,4.56 | |
technology and they're pretty much,803.88,5.34 | |
perfect for AI to run things now in the,805.139,5.88 | |
short term I don't think that Dows are,809.22,4.32 | |
going to run the whole world but I think,811.019,3.601 | |
that we're going to start seeing,813.54,3.18 | |
experiments where dowels run things like,814.62,4.44 | |
maybe homeowners associations and small,816.72,4.38 | |
companies and that sort of thing and if,819.06,5.219 | |
the technology is proven out it could be,821.1,5.64 | |
that Dows are the way that we transition,824.279,5.461 | |
to a more algorithmic kind of,826.74,5.64 | |
technocracy a good technocracy where the,829.74,4.44 | |
AI is all debate and integrate our,832.38,3.66 | |
information and our needs and then,834.18,3.42 | |
figure out the best way to manage things,836.04,4.739 | |
so that's one possibility there's plenty,837.6,5.58 | |
of other possibilities so if you and I,840.779,4.381 | |
didn't come up with this idea by the way,843.18,3.719 | |
um the first place I saw that book was a,845.16,4.859 | |
a that idea was a book called liquid,846.899,4.581 | |
rain uh,850.019,5.401 | |
r-e-i-g-n good well-researched book,851.48,6.22 | |
um the author is in English though or it,855.42,4.44 | |
doesn't speak English natively so it,857.7,3.54 | |
needed a little bit more editing but,859.86,3.96 | |
still a good good book,861.24,5.159 | |
now on the other hand,863.82,4.92 | |
if everyone is going to live forever and,866.399,5.341 | |
it's cheap then we might very well slip,868.74,4.2 | |
towards,871.74,3.719 | |
Eternal Injustice which you know we keep,872.94,5.339 | |
making grimdark movies and TV and books,875.459,4.201 | |
and video games about that so that's,878.279,3.601 | |
something that we're all afraid of so,879.66,4.38 | |
between corporate greed I said Corporal,881.88,5.519 | |
greed oops typo corporate greed and,884.04,5.88 | |
political cronyism we it could end up,887.399,4.081 | |
with technocrats that control everything,889.92,3.599 | |
and then we get stuck in a dystopian,891.48,3.479 | |
death spiral that we can never get out,893.519,3.06 | |
of and it's just and it's a cyberpunk,894.959,3.961 | |
hell but nobody really wants that except,896.579,4.62 | |
for there's a few like really cynical,898.92,4.32 | |
people who probably genuinely want that,901.199,4.561 | |
but most of us don't want that,903.24,5.58 | |
um so even even so if you saw my video,905.76,5.759 | |
about the Malik or watch Liv bori and um,908.82,5.04 | |
and Daniel schmachtenberger talking,911.519,5.041 | |
about these really mysterious forces at,913.86,4.8 | |
play that are going to push us towards,916.56,4.68 | |
that that attractor State anyways no,918.66,4.56 | |
matter what we do so we need to change,921.24,3.539 | |
the game,923.22,3.119 | |
um I have a whole other video about that,924.779,4.141 | |
so check out my Malik video my in-game,926.339,5.101 | |
video if you want to know more about how,928.92,4.8 | |
to avoid that situation but I do need to,931.44,5.28 | |
point out that longevity Medicine by no,933.72,5.58 | |
means will automatically prevent that,936.72,4.799 | |
and in fact it could push us towards,939.3,3.3 | |
that,941.519,2.94 | |
um so we need to be very careful,942.6,4.799 | |
now on the topic of Hedonism versus,944.459,4.861 | |
asceticism,947.399,4.62 | |
um you know like what do we do right if,949.32,4.379 | |
you know that you can just take a pill,952.019,3.961 | |
you can abuse your body and if you party,953.699,3.841 | |
too hard you just sleep it off for a,955.98,3.419 | |
week and then you're back to normal like,957.54,4.919 | |
are people gonna do that you know like I,959.399,4.74 | |
don't know about you but in my early 20s,962.459,4.021 | |
I was like yeah let's party,964.139,5.521 | |
um and if I had a 20 year old body again,966.48,4.74 | |
I'd probably do that again for a little,969.66,3.66 | |
while so,971.22,4.44 | |
this is this is an oversimplification,973.32,5.699 | |
but one one uh Spectrum to think about,975.66,5.4 | |
it is you can live hedonically or,979.019,4.26 | |
hedonistically or ascetically,981.06,4.62 | |
and so let's talk about the hedonic life,983.279,4.68 | |
this is the obvious kind of like you,985.68,4.2 | |
know just engage in wanting Hedonism for,987.959,3.901 | |
however long you want because you know,989.88,3.6 | |
that you'll be fine,991.86,4.32 | |
one thing that I worry about here is,993.48,5.34 | |
that if you are able to be saturated in,996.18,4.68 | |
joy and pleasure you're going to become,998.82,3.84 | |
numb to dopamine and you're going to be,1000.86,4.14 | |
like constantly seeking the next biggest,1002.66,4.38 | |
thing and so you know we have like,1005.0,4.019 | |
digital minimalism and dopamine fasting,1007.04,3.84 | |
and stuff so I think that that could be,1009.019,4.26 | |
like an antidote to the hedonic life we,1010.88,4.259 | |
might also come up with medicines that,1013.279,3.3 | |
desensitize you or I guess maybe,1015.139,4.44 | |
re-sensitize you to dopamine,1016.579,6.12 | |
um but if we have like entire swaths of,1019.579,4.5 | |
the population who do nothing but,1022.699,4.26 | |
mindlessly pursue joy and pleasure like,1024.079,5.581 | |
what's like what's the point does that,1026.959,5.1 | |
maybe make life meaningless,1029.66,3.84 | |
um and that'll be up to the individuals,1032.059,3.181 | |
to discover I'm not going to make any,1033.5,3.54 | |
judgments one way or another because,1035.24,4.559 | |
even just pursuing experiences you can,1037.04,4.379 | |
make a philosophical argument that that,1039.799,4.26 | |
is a good thing and that longevity,1041.419,5.52 | |
medicine can Empower us to have entirely,1044.059,6.261 | |
new kinds of experiences so,1046.939,6.001 | |
one way or another those experiences,1050.32,4.96 | |
will probably be had now on the other,1052.94,4.5 | |
hand there's the acidic life so acetic,1055.28,4.62 | |
life is about basically living more like,1057.44,5.46 | |
a monk or uh monastically where you,1059.9,4.8 | |
deliberately deprive yourself of those,1062.9,3.54 | |
Joys and Pleasures,1064.7,3.839 | |
um and focus on developing a sense of,1066.44,4.859 | |
satisfaction from uh and contentment,1068.539,6.321 | |
through uh connection service reflection,1071.299,6.481 | |
spiritual growth and so on,1074.86,5.62 | |
and so what I want to say is that these,1077.78,4.38 | |
are like extreme opposites I don't think,1080.48,3.72 | |
most people are going to go to either,1082.16,3.899 | |
opposite I think that most people are,1084.2,3.3 | |
going to be balanced in there somewhere,1086.059,5.701 | |
and so for myself in particular I,1087.5,6.179 | |
usually like you know I try and have one,1091.76,4.26 | |
or two like big social fun outings per,1093.679,4.141 | |
week and then the rest of the time I,1096.02,4.26 | |
focus on Research uh making YouTube,1097.82,4.08 | |
videos,1100.28,4.32 | |
um you know supporting my patreon uh,1101.9,6.18 | |
supporters and so on and so you know I,1104.6,5.04 | |
think it'll be just a matter of balance,1108.08,4.44 | |
uh so this is not nearly as big of a,1109.64,5.039 | |
deal I think as the econ the economic,1112.52,4.8 | |
you know equality versus inequality,1114.679,6.24 | |
now taking a step back though,1117.32,5.7 | |
forget the economics for a second let's,1120.919,4.921 | |
look at ourselves as a species will we,1123.02,4.86 | |
stagnate or will we innovate if we,1125.84,6.24 | |
achieve uh biological immortality so a,1127.88,5.76 | |
quotation comes to mind and this is just,1132.08,3.719 | |
a truism that is said in in the,1133.64,4.26 | |
establishment which is science advances,1135.799,3.781 | |
one funeral at a time,1137.9,5.76 | |
so basically the idea is that uh if you,1139.58,6.0 | |
know if if the status quo is maintained,1143.66,3.18 | |
and the people that believe in the,1145.58,2.64 | |
status quo live forever they continue,1146.84,3.48 | |
maintaining the status quo forever and,1148.22,4.56 | |
nothing ever changes so do people get,1150.32,3.96 | |
stuck in their way,1152.78,3.3 | |
um if people continue to get stuck in,1154.28,4.38 | |
their way with biological immortality,1156.08,4.74 | |
yeah we could end up being a very,1158.66,4.68 | |
stagnant species now on the other hand,1160.82,5.16 | |
maybe biological immortality helps,1163.34,4.74 | |
people stay more open-minded maybe we,1165.98,3.78 | |
even develop therapies that keep you,1168.08,3.54 | |
open-minded and prevent your mind from,1169.76,5.52 | |
calcifying and then hopefully we can get,1171.62,5.28 | |
the best of both worlds and so what I,1175.28,3.3 | |
mean by that is you're young you're,1176.9,3.659 | |
Dynamic you're you you're open-minded,1178.58,4.08 | |
but then you also get to accumulate,1180.559,4.441 | |
centuries worth of wisdom so let's take,1182.66,4.68 | |
a deeper dive into that so on the one,1185.0,4.98 | |
hand we could end up with mass paralysis,1187.34,5.339 | |
so imagine just do a thought experiment,1189.98,5.52 | |
with me for a second imagine that during,1192.679,5.761 | |
the um during uh the the height of the,1195.5,5.1 | |
Spanish Empire the,1198.44,4.32 | |
um the Conquistadors found the Fountain,1200.6,5.22 | |
of of Youth and they were able to convey,1202.76,5.82 | |
uh the magic of immortality to the king,1205.82,4.739 | |
and queen of Spain who were deeply,1208.58,4.26 | |
Catholic and then they were able to take,1210.559,4.74 | |
that and then basically spread Spanish,1212.84,4.5 | |
style Catholicism around the entire,1215.299,4.441 | |
world 500 years ago,1217.34,4.86 | |
and then the entire world was Frozen,1219.74,5.1 | |
with that value system so things like,1222.2,4.68 | |
slavery theocracy patriarchy and,1224.84,3.719 | |
colonialism become the status quo,1226.88,3.12 | |
forever,1228.559,3.12 | |
or at least until something major,1230.0,3.36 | |
happens because that doesn't preclude,1231.679,4.141 | |
the possibility of Civil War Uprising,1233.36,4.74 | |
that sort of thing but from a social,1235.82,4.14 | |
perspective many of those people that,1238.1,3.6 | |
think that hey you know colonialism and,1239.96,3.959 | |
slavery was a good idea might still be,1241.7,5.28 | |
alive today so what kind of values,1243.919,6.301 | |
like need to be sunsetted with funerals,1246.98,5.4 | |
so that's something that's that's the,1250.22,4.44 | |
downside now I did think of an upside to,1252.38,3.6 | |
this though,1254.66,4.92 | |
with the rate of change of society it,1255.98,5.52 | |
might actually be good to have some Old,1259.58,3.66 | |
Guard people pushing the brakes more,1261.5,4.2 | |
because I mean the world is changing,1263.24,4.98 | |
really fast right now and maybe it's,1265.7,5.4 | |
even too fast so if there's a few people,1268.22,4.44 | |
that are a little bit more resistant,1271.1,3.42 | |
that could be a good thing especially,1272.66,5.04 | |
with AI ramping up and and who knows how,1274.52,4.98 | |
fast life is going to change I'm not,1277.7,3.78 | |
saying that it totally counterbalances,1279.5,3.84 | |
it I'm just giving you some food for,1281.48,2.699 | |
thought,1283.34,3.9 | |
now on the other hand if all of our best,1284.179,5.101 | |
Minds live forever whether they're,1287.24,4.64 | |
social thinkers or scientists or or,1289.28,5.279 | |
spiritual leaders or whatever if they,1291.88,5.02 | |
all live forever like that could,1294.559,3.721 | |
actually be really good and that could,1296.9,3.3 | |
actually support life and the world,1298.28,4.74 | |
changing for the better faster because,1300.2,6.0 | |
what if Nikola Tesla and Albert Einstein,1303.02,5.58 | |
and Stephen Hawking were all still alive,1306.2,4.92 | |
and all collaborating to make nuclear,1308.6,4.62 | |
fusion and warp drive right like that,1311.12,3.84 | |
would be pretty cool,1313.22,3.6 | |
um and then you know I'm not going to,1314.96,3.66 | |
pick any particular spiritual leaders,1316.82,3.479 | |
because all of them have their own,1318.62,3.96 | |
issues imagine that humans are,1320.299,3.601 | |
complicated and the closer you look at,1322.58,3.959 | |
them they're all problematic but the,1323.9,6.3 | |
point being is that having many leaders,1326.539,5.161 | |
in the world that have centuries of,1330.2,3.719 | |
wisdom accumulated could actually be a,1331.7,3.38 | |
really good thing for us could help,1333.919,4.74 | |
stabilize the entire planet and the,1335.08,5.68 | |
entire species which I think is on,1338.659,4.321 | |
balance probably a good thing,1340.76,4.2 | |
so whether it's positive disruption or,1342.98,4.88 | |
positive stabilization I do think that,1344.96,5.94 | |
overall there are so while there are,1347.86,4.9 | |
some pros and cons it's a double-edged,1350.9,4.56 | |
sword I think that longevity would be a,1352.76,5.039 | |
net positive for the species,1355.46,4.56 | |
okay so those are all the issues that,1357.799,4.021 | |
I've unpacked now let's dive into the,1360.02,3.3 | |
last part of the video which is my,1361.82,3.18 | |
specific predictions,1363.32,3.66 | |
so in the near term as I mentioned,1365.0,4.559 | |
earlier in the video I do believe that,1366.98,4.439 | |
longevity medicine is going to be dirt,1369.559,4.321 | |
cheap and broadly accessible I think,1371.419,5.221 | |
it's going to be cheap because at the at,1373.88,6.0 | |
the fundamental level mRNA vaccines not,1376.64,5.64 | |
that expensive nanoparticles not that,1379.88,4.26 | |
expensive especially once you figure out,1382.28,4.5 | |
how to scale them and then finally for,1384.14,4.44 | |
accessibility I think that government,1386.78,3.96 | |
regulation will ensure that everything,1388.58,4.92 | |
is accessible just because that'll be,1390.74,4.5 | |
the will of the people but also it makes,1393.5,3.48 | |
economic sense to ensure that everyone,1395.24,3.6 | |
has access to it,1396.98,4.26 | |
and the reason is because well death is,1398.84,3.42 | |
expensive,1401.24,3.78 | |
uh the economic loss of expertise but,1402.26,5.039 | |
also end-of-life care is ludicrously,1405.02,4.8 | |
expensive and so just from a purely,1407.299,5.221 | |
economic standpoint it makes sense to,1409.82,4.5 | |
push for longevity medicine to be cheap,1412.52,4.019 | |
and accessible another thing is that,1414.32,3.66 | |
it's going to be an array of therapies,1416.539,3.421 | |
because there's tens of thousands of,1417.98,5.059 | |
diseases and metabolic disorders and,1419.96,5.16 | |
genetic flaws and every you know,1423.039,3.64 | |
hundreds of thousands millions of things,1425.12,4.32 | |
that can go wrong with the body so when,1426.679,4.141 | |
we say like you know biological,1429.44,2.82 | |
immortality it's not going to be one,1430.82,3.56 | |
pill that you take it's going to be,1432.26,4.68 | |
bespoke personalized medicine it's going,1434.38,5.2 | |
to be injections it might be implants it,1436.94,4.739 | |
might be nanites it's going to be a lot,1439.58,5.099 | |
of stuff number three is that detection,1441.679,5.101 | |
detection and imaging of biological,1444.679,3.36 | |
problems needs a little bit more of,1446.78,3.3 | |
advancement now that being said I'm not,1448.039,3.421 | |
worried about it because I think AI is,1450.08,2.82 | |
going to figure that out quick fast and,1451.46,3.68 | |
in a hurry so the combination of AI,1452.9,4.86 | |
Quantum Computing and Material Science,1455.14,4.659 | |
means that you'll probably end up with a,1457.76,3.899 | |
implant like in your arm or whatever,1459.799,4.62 | |
this just constantly reporting on the,1461.659,4.64 | |
content of your blood,1464.419,5.581 | |
there was a some like speculative sci-fi,1466.299,5.141 | |
kind of documentaries that I watched,1470.0,4.26 | |
years ago that um that there the sensors,1471.44,4.08 | |
were actually in the toilets so every,1474.26,3.779 | |
time you go to the bathroom it it reads,1475.52,3.72 | |
you know what's coming out of your body,1478.039,3.481 | |
and can use that to infer you know your,1479.24,3.96 | |
your health,1481.52,3.12 | |
um I don't know that's a little bit,1483.2,5.099 | |
weird but hey it's one possible modality,1484.64,5.279 | |
um yeah so the fourth one is just kind,1488.299,3.541 | |
of a rehash of the different delivery,1489.919,4.681 | |
mechanisms okay so here's where it gets,1491.84,6.78 | |
fun life in 200 years I predict that due,1494.6,6.84 | |
in part to uh the technologies that lead,1498.62,4.38 | |
to life extension but also some of the,1501.44,4.02 | |
knock-on effects of Life Extension mean,1503.0,4.14 | |
that war poverty and disease will all,1505.46,2.94 | |
have been solved,1507.14,3.779 | |
and so what I mean by that is that our,1508.4,3.779 | |
best and brightest whether they're,1510.919,2.821 | |
Engineers spiritual leaders political,1512.179,4.081 | |
leaders scientists will all be living,1513.74,4.799 | |
longer and will be able to help provide,1516.26,5.34 | |
a steadying hand not just for you know,1518.539,5.281 | |
Global Harmony but also to help solve,1521.6,3.9 | |
the problems,1523.82,3.42 | |
um so that's going to be I think a,1525.5,3.419 | |
really big thing,1527.24,3.96 | |
um and 200 years is is going to be close,1528.919,4.86 | |
there's probably going to be some big,1531.2,5.4 | |
like Global conflicts between now and,1533.779,3.78 | |
then,1536.6,2.579 | |
um hopefully just one more well,1537.559,3.72 | |
hopefully zero more but in all,1539.179,4.701 | |
likelihood at least one more,1541.279,4.5 | |
unfortunately,1543.88,4.48 | |
um number two is because of that,1545.779,4.321 | |
aforementioned thing where like most,1548.36,3.78 | |
people are going to be empty nesters and,1550.1,3.3 | |
so we already have a model for that,1552.14,3.18 | |
right like you go to a retirement,1553.4,3.3 | |
community some of those people are the,1555.32,2.76 | |
happiest people you've ever met so I,1556.7,3.12 | |
think everyone is going to move towards,1558.08,3.9 | |
that sort of communal living,1559.82,3.66 | |
and I don't mean shared ownership I,1561.98,3.36 | |
don't mean like communism communal I,1563.48,3.6 | |
just mean like Village living and group,1565.34,3.06 | |
living,1567.08,3.42 | |
um in rural places it'll be more like,1568.4,4.74 | |
Villages uh like Eco Villages or that,1570.5,4.559 | |
sort of thing and in urban places it'll,1573.14,3.3 | |
be like high density co-living,1575.059,3.12 | |
situations and of course there will,1576.44,3.66 | |
still be a plenty of people who prefer,1578.179,3.661 | |
to live alone or just with their partner,1580.1,5.16 | |
or Partners if they're non-monogamous,1581.84,6.0 | |
overall in 200 years I think that the,1585.26,4.799 | |
global population will have stabilized,1587.84,4.02 | |
and I know that some people believe that,1590.059,3.6 | |
the carrying capacity is like 50 billion,1591.86,3.66 | |
or 50 trillion or whatever,1593.659,3.181 | |
um you don't want to live on a planet,1595.52,3.18 | |
with 50 billion humans I promise you,1596.84,4.02 | |
like look into it,1598.7,3.599 | |
um so I think that the population will,1600.86,3.0 | |
stabilize it could we could still end up,1602.299,3.601 | |
with a lot more than we have today maybe,1603.86,3.84 | |
15 billion or 20 billion that would,1605.9,3.779 | |
still be pretty crowded,1607.7,3.66 | |
um and then Supply chains are going to,1609.679,4.5 | |
be really really blah anyways point,1611.36,5.34 | |
being I think that uh population will,1614.179,5.281 | |
have stabilized within 200 years and,1616.7,4.38 | |
because of that there will be very few,1619.46,3.599 | |
children there will be economic,1621.08,4.199 | |
incentives against having children so,1623.059,3.961 | |
this was explored in an episode of Love,1625.279,4.681 | |
death and robots where you in order to,1627.02,4.32 | |
keep getting your life extending,1629.96,4.26 | |
medicine you have to be sterilized,1631.34,6.0 | |
um that's a pretty Draconian measure so,1634.22,5.22 | |
but depending on the depending on what,1637.34,4.26 | |
happens that could become a thing I kind,1639.44,3.54 | |
of doubt it I think that people will,1641.6,2.939 | |
voluntarily just kind of get over,1642.98,3.66 | |
themselves like everyone has one or two,1644.539,3.481 | |
children and then they're happy or,1646.64,3.12 | |
whatever but you never know because you,1648.02,3.12 | |
know grandparents get to the point where,1649.76,2.76 | |
they haven't had children in a long time,1651.14,2.34 | |
and they're like hey I want,1652.52,4.32 | |
grandchildren and you know we are we are,1653.48,5.1 | |
biologically wired too like having,1656.84,3.42 | |
children around,1658.58,4.5 | |
uh some of us some people are like no,1660.26,4.74 | |
get children away from me,1663.08,5.099 | |
um but yeah oops come back sorry,1665.0,5.4 | |
um yes so I think that within 200 years,1668.179,3.6 | |
we're gonna still have some some,1670.4,3.899 | |
holdouts of the mortalitasi,1671.779,4.5 | |
um some probably some small communities,1674.299,3.721 | |
and shrinking communities that that,1676.279,4.14 | |
prefer the natural uh flow of things,1678.02,4.62 | |
hopefully they don't cause any trouble I,1680.419,3.181 | |
don't think that they're going to be,1682.64,1.98 | |
like,1683.6,2.52 | |
um terrorists or anything because that,1684.62,3.659 | |
kind of runs contrary but you never know,1686.12,3.84 | |
what's going to happen,1688.279,4.081 | |
um and also lastly within 200 years I,1689.96,3.66 | |
think the governments and corporations,1692.36,3.179 | |
will still exist as we know them today,1693.62,4.86 | |
nation states and that sort of thing in,1695.539,4.201 | |
the long run though I think that that,1698.48,3.0 | |
idea that I that I was talking about,1699.74,3.24 | |
with the you know decentralized,1701.48,3.24 | |
autonomous organizations where,1702.98,4.079 | |
everything is run by by hierarchies of,1704.72,5.16 | |
AI with human input I think that that's,1707.059,4.921 | |
probably going to be like the long-term,1709.88,4.32 | |
end game I hope,1711.98,4.559 | |
if it's done right and then finally in,1714.2,4.92 | |
2000 years because we're approaching the,1716.539,4.26 | |
singularity,1719.12,3.9 | |
um you know heck we might figure out,1720.799,4.26 | |
faster than light travel before that 200,1723.02,4.8 | |
years is up so let's be honest but what,1725.059,4.62 | |
I'm going to say is that within 2000,1727.82,4.32 | |
years we will have figured it out,1729.679,4.201 | |
um if faster than light travel is,1732.14,3.72 | |
possible we will have figured that out,1733.88,4.08 | |
basically in our lifetime because we're,1735.86,4.08 | |
probably going to live a long time and,1737.96,3.839 | |
if not then Interstellar flight is going,1739.94,4.32 | |
to be a thing now what's going to happen,1741.799,5.88 | |
as humans spread across the universe is,1744.26,6.18 | |
that it takes an astronomical amount of,1747.679,5.281 | |
energy to change the habitat of an,1750.44,4.26 | |
entire planet which if we solve fusion,1752.96,3.66 | |
and have anti-matter reactors and that,1754.7,3.78 | |
sort of stuff we will have enough energy,1756.62,5.22 | |
to do that but that being said,1758.48,5.699 | |
we might not right we might not have,1761.84,4.02 | |
enough energy and material because if,1764.179,3.661 | |
you run the numbers it would take a,1765.86,3.96 | |
tremendous amount of water and and,1767.84,4.319 | |
matter to make Mars habitable habitable,1769.82,5.76 | |
for instance and Earth-like worlds might,1772.159,5.64 | |
be really really far apart,1775.58,5.52 | |
um so like too far to get to so it's,1777.799,5.401 | |
easier to change ourselves so this is,1781.1,3.66 | |
this is what I'm building up to it's,1783.2,3.3 | |
easier to change ourselves than an,1784.76,3.779 | |
entire planet especially if we have,1786.5,3.779 | |
genetic medicine and cybernetic stuff,1788.539,4.14 | |
and nanotech and blah blah all that fun,1790.279,5.041 | |
stuff so we might adapt ourselves to,1792.679,4.1 | |
live on planets that we couldn't,1795.32,4.5 | |
currently habitate which means that we,1796.779,5.201 | |
we that we as humans might deliberately,1799.82,5.28 | |
speciate in order to,1801.98,5.1 | |
um in order to spread across the stars,1805.1,4.26 | |
and this is kind of in Canon from the,1807.08,4.319 | |
Star Trek universe where like they kind,1809.36,3.6 | |
of have a really wimpy explanation in,1811.399,3.061 | |
one episode in generation Next,1812.96,4.02 | |
Generation where like the reason that,1814.46,4.74 | |
all aliens have roughly the same body,1816.98,4.5 | |
plan is because we all had a you know,1819.2,5.04 | |
the same progenitor species billions of,1821.48,4.26 | |
years ago or whatever,1824.24,2.7 | |
so I don't know if that's going to,1825.74,3.0 | |
happen but this is just one possibility,1826.94,4.38 | |
if you think of like okay we really want,1828.74,4.38 | |
to get onto other planets so what are,1831.32,3.18 | |
the implications of that we can either,1833.12,2.88 | |
make the planets more Earth-like or we,1834.5,3.419 | |
can adapt ourselves or maybe a little,1836.0,4.62 | |
bit of of both but over a long enough,1837.919,5.161 | |
period of time we might consider like,1840.62,4.26 | |
the people on Mars a different species,1843.08,4.52 | |
or in Alpha Centauri a different species,1844.88,5.22 | |
which could result in like maybe they,1847.6,4.12 | |
will actually look like Klingons one day,1850.1,4.199 | |
who knows alright so I hope you had a,1851.72,4.26 | |
lot of fun thanks for watching don't,1854.299,4.321 | |
forget like And subscribe and hop on,1855.98,5.4 | |
patreon and also if I got it working,1858.62,4.679 | |
we're actually about to jump right over,1861.38,4.019 | |
to the live stream q a so I will see you,1863.299,4.281 | |
there,1865.399,2.181 | |