Links between systems thinking and complex decision making

There is a widely held belief that systems thinking is an answer to the increasing complexity of the world as well as the workplace. Despite strong interest and assertions, however, the relationship between systems thinking and complex decision making has received scant attention in the literature. Using Richmond’s (1997) classification scheme as the theoretical base, this paper investigates the link between systems thinking and complex decision making using Verbal Protocol Analysis (VPA) methodology. The findings of the study indicate that while the degree of systems thinking does matter, certain types of systemic thinking would be more relevant to performance. Further, evidence shows that the subject’s approach to the problem is also a highly pertinent factor in task performance, in that better performers displayed a distinctive pattern of thought that differed from that of the poor performers. Better performing subjects attempted to gain an understanding of the system structure before they proceeded to develop strategies and take action. The findings revealed a cyclical thought pattern that was consistently followed by better performing participants. This pattern, termed the CPA cycle, consists of three distinct phases of conception, planning, and action. This research contributes to the fields of systems thinking and complex decision making by integrating knowledge and methodology from several disciplines including psychology, management and IT. Specific contributions include a novel research methodology and, in particular, operationalization of the systems thinking paradigm, as well as identification of disaggregated factors affecting complex decision making. The managerial and organizational implications of the research are compelling and invite further research in this nascent field. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Syst. Dyn. Rev. 20, 21–48, (2004) There is a widely held belief that systems thinking is an answer to the increasing complexity of the environments in which we live and work. However, there is little empirical evidence to support the notion that systems thinking is indeed effectual in dealing with complexity. Despite some notable research work (see, for example, Booth Sweeney and Sterman 2000; Doyle 1997; Buchner 1995; Pennington et al. 1995; Brehmer 1992; Funke 1991; Sterman 1989a, b), there is a curious gap in the literature on the relationship between systems thinking and complex decision making. According to Doyle (1997): Many claims have been made concerning the ability of systems thinking interventions to change the nature and quality of thought about complex systems, . . . [yet] important questions about the relationship between systems thinking and basic cognitive processes such as learning, memory, problem solving, decision making, and updating mental models remain unanswered. System Dynamics Review Vol. 20, No. 1, (Spring 2004): 21–48 Received September 2002 Published online in Wiley InterScience Accepted November 2003 (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI: 10.1002/sdr.281 Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 21 ∗ Correspondence to: K. E. Maani, Department of Management Science and Information Systems, School of Business and Economics, The University of Auckland, Private Bag 92019 Auckland, New Zealand. E-mail: k.maani@auckland.ac.nz This paper is dedicated to the memory of Barry Richmond whose work has inspired this research Kambiz Maani is an