LLukas22/scidocs huggingface dataset:
Consumption , Aggregate Wealth , and Expected Stock Returns

This paper studies the role of f luctuations in the aggregate consumption–wealth ratio for predicting stock returns. Using U.S. quarterly stock market data, we find that these f luctuations in the consumption–wealth ratio are strong predictors of both real stock returns and excess returns over a Treasury bill rate. We also find that this variable is a better forecaster of future returns at short and intermediate horizons than is the dividend yield, the dividend payout ratio, and several other popular forecasting variables. Why should the consumption–wealth ratio forecast asset returns? We show that a wide class of optimal models of consumer behavior imply that the log consumption–aggregate wealth ~human capital plus asset holdings! ratio summarizes expected returns on aggregate wealth, or the market portfolio. Although this ratio is not observable, we provide assumptions under which its important predictive components for future asset returns may be expressed in terms of observable variables, namely in terms of consumption, asset holdings and labor income. The framework implies that these variables are cointegrated, and that deviations from this shared trend summarize agents’ expectations of future returns on the market portfolio. UNDERSTANDING THE EMPIRICAL LINKAGES between macroeconomic variables and financial markets has long been a goal of financial economics. One reason for the interest in these linkages is that expected excess returns on common stocks appear to vary with the business cycle. This evidence suggests that stock returns should be forecastable by business cycle variables at cyclical frequencies. Indeed, the forecastability of stock returns is well documented. Financial indicators such as the ratios of price to dividends, price to earnings, or dividends to earnings have predictive power for excess returns over a Treasury-bill rate. These financial variables, however, have been most successful at predicting returns over long horizons. Over horizons spanning the * Lettau and Ludvigson are at the Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The authors are grateful to Gregory Bauer, John Y. Campbell, Steve Cecchetti, Todd Clark, Michael Cooper, Wayne Ferson, Kenneth French, Owen Lamont, James Stock, Kenneth West, an anonymous referee, Rick Green ~the editor!, and to seminar participants at the NBER Asset Pricing Meeting May 1999, the NBER Summer Institute July 2000, the CEPR European Summer Symposium in Finance July 1999, the University of Amsterdam, the University of Bielefeld, Hunter College, Indiana University, Northwestern University, the University of Rochester, and the New York Federal Reserve for helpful comments. Jeffrey Brown and Claire Liou provided excellent research assistance. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily ref lect those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System. Any errors or omissions are the responsibility of the authors. THE JOURNAL OF FINANCE • VOL. LVI, NO. 3 • JUNE 2001
Homeopathy for Depression: A Randomized, Partially Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled, Four-Armed Study (DEP-HOM)

BACKGROUND
The specific clinical benefit of the homeopathic consultation and of homeopathic remedies in patients with depression has not yet been investigated.


AIMS
To investigate the 1) specific effect of individualized homeopathic Q-potencies compared to placebo and 2) the effect of an extensive homeopathic case taking (case history I) compared to a shorter, rather conventional one (case history II) in the treatment of acute major depression (moderate episode) after six weeks.


METHODS
A randomized, partially double-blind, placebo-controlled, four-armed trial using a 2×2 factorial design with a six-week study duration per patient was performed.


RESULTS
A total of 44 from 228 planned patients were randomized (2∶1∶2∶1 randomization: 16 homeopathic Q-potencies/case history I, 7 placebo/case history I, 14 homeopathic Q-potencies/case history II, 7 placebo/case history II). Because of recruitment problems, the study was terminated prior to full recruitment, and was underpowered for the preplanned confirmatory hypothesis testing. Exploratory data analyses showed heterogeneous and inconclusive results with large variance in the sample. The mean difference for the Hamilton-D after 6 weeks was 2.0 (95%CI -1.2;5.2) for Q-potencies vs. placebo and -3.1 (-5.9;-0.2) for case history I vs. case history II. Overall, no consistent or clinically relevant results across all outcomes between homeopathic Q-potencies versus placebo and homeopathic versus conventional case taking were observed. The frequency of adverse events was comparable for all groups.


CONCLUSIONS
Although our results are inconclusive, given that recruitment into this trial was very difficult and we had to terminate early, we cannot recommend undertaking a further trial addressing this question in a similar setting. Prof. Dr. Claudia Witt had full access to all the data in the study and takes responsibility for the integrity of the data and the accuracy of the data analysis.


TRIAL REGISTRATION
clinicaltrials.gov identifier NCT01178255. Protocol publication: http://www.trialsjournal.com/content/12/1/43.
Effectiveness of school-based occupational therapy intervention on handwriting.

OBJECTIVE
This study investigated the effects of school-based occupational therapy services on students' handwriting.


METHOD
Students 7 to 10 years of age with poor handwriting legibility who received direct occupational therapy services (n = 29) were compared with students who did not receive services (n = 9) on handwriting legibility and speed and associated performance components. Visual-motor, visual-perception, in-hand manipulation, and handwriting legibility and speed were measured at the beginning and end of the academic year. The intervention group received a mean of 16.4 sessions and 528 min of direct occupational therapy services during the school year. According to the therapists, visual-motor skills and handwriting practice were emphasized most in intervention.


RESULTS
Students in the intervention group showed significant increases in in-hand manipulation and position in space scores. They also improved more in handwriting legibility scores than the students in the comparison group. Fifteen students in the intervention group demonstrated greater than 90% legibility at the end of the school year. On average, legibility increased by 14.2% in the students who received services and by 5.8% in the students who did not receive services. Speed increased slightly more in the students who did not receive services.


CONCLUSION
Students who received occupational therapy services demonstrated improved letter legibility, but speed and numeral legibility did not demonstrate positive intervention effects.
The BellKor solution to the Netflix Prize

Our final solution (RMSE=0.8712) consists of blending 107 individual results. Since many of these results are close variants, we first describe the main approaches behind them. Then, we will move to describing each individual result. The core components of the solution are published in our ICDM'2007 paper [1] (or, KDD-Cup'2007 paper [2]), and also in the earlier KDD'2007 paper [3]. We assume that the reader is familiar with these works and our terminology there. A movie-oriented k-NN approach was thoroughly described in our KDD-Cup'2007 paper [kNN]. We apply it as a post-processor for most other models. Interestingly, it was most effective when applied on residuals of RBMs [5], thereby driving the Quiz RMSE from 0.9093 to 0.8888. An earlier k-NN approach was described in the KDD'2007 paper ([3], Sec. 3) [Slow-kNN]. It appears that this earlier approach can achieve slightly more accurate results than the newer one, at the expense of a significant increase in running time. Consequently, we dropped the older approach, though some results involving it survive within the final blend. We also tried more naïve k-NN models, where interpolation weights are based on pairwise similarities between movies (see [2], Sec. 2.2). Specifically, we based weights on corr 2 /(1-corr 2) [Corr-kNN], or on mse-10 [MSE-kNN]. Here, corr is the Pearson correlation coefficient between the two respective movies, and mse is the mean squared distance between two movies (see definition of s ij in Sec. 4.1 of [2]). We also tried taking the interpolation weights as the "support-based similarities", which will be defined shortly [Supp-kNN]. Other variants that we tried for computing the interpolation coefficients are: (1) using our KDD-Cup'2007 [2] method on a binary user-movie matrix, which replaces every rating with " 1 " , and sets non-rated user-movie pairs to " 0 " [Bin-kNN]. (2) Taking results of factorization, and regressing the factors associated with the target movie on the factors associated with its neighbors. Then, the resulting regression coefficients are used as interpolation weights [Fctr-kNN]. As explained in our papers, we also tried user-oriented k-NN approaches. Either in a profound way (see: [1], Sec. 4.3; [3], Sec. 5) [User-kNN], or by just taking weights as pairwise similarities among users [User-MSE-kNN], which is the user-oriented parallel of the aforementioned [MSE-kNN]. Prior to computing interpolation weights, one has to choose the set of neighbors. We find the most similar neighbors based on an appropriate similarity measure. In …
Pilgrimage: The necessary journey

Abstract Pilgrimage , by Dorothy M. Richardson, is the portrayal of Miriam Henderson's struggle for independence and freedom in a society hostile to female self-reliance. The novel explores the external barriers to her liberation and analyses what it actually means to be a woman. Whilst accepting many of the masculine definitions of feminity Richardson asserts that the traditionally foolish and endearing characteristics of women — their illogicality or lack of abstract reasoning — are actually virtues that make women the deeper and wiser sex. More important, however, is the internalised conflict of Miriam, who as the surrogate son, the woman who contains ‘masculine’ qualities, becomes a symbol of the confusions and tensions of the transitional age in which she lives. And today as much as yesterday Richardson speaks for thousands of women who also feel they fight alone.
Methadone Induction in Primary Care for Opioid Dependence: A Pragmatic Randomized Trial (ANRS Methaville)

OBJECTIVE
Methadone coverage is poor in many countries due in part to methadone induction being possible only in specialized care (SC). This multicenter pragmatic trial compared the effectiveness of methadone treatment between two induction models: primary care (PC) and SC.


METHODS
In this study, registered at ClinicalTrials.Gov (NCT00657397), opioid-dependent individuals not on methadone treatment for at least one month or receiving buprenorphine but needing to switch were randomly assigned to start methadone in PC (N = 155) or in SC (N = 66) in 10 sites in France. Visits were scheduled at months M0, M3, M6 and M12. The primary outcome was self-reported abstinence from street-opioids at 12 months (M12) (with an underlying 15% non-inferiority hypothesis for PC). Secondary outcomes were abstinence during follow-up, engagement in treatment (i.e. completing the induction period), retention and satisfaction with the explanations provided by the physician. Primary analysis used intention to treat (ITT). Mixed models and the log-rank test were used to assess the arm effect (PC vs. SC) on the course of abstinence and retention, respectively.


RESULTS
In the ITT analysis (n = 155 in PC, 66 in SC), which compared the proportions of street-opioid abstinent participants, 85/155 (55%) and 22/66 (33%) of the participants were classified as street-opioid abstinent at M12 in PC and SC, respectively. This ITT analysis showed the non-inferiority of PC (21.5 [7.7; 35.3]). Engagement in treatment and satisfaction with the explanations provided by the physician were significantly higher in PC than SC. Retention in methadone and abstinence during follow-up were comparable in both arms (p = 0.47, p = 0.39, respectively).


CONCLUSIONS
Under appropriate conditions, methadone induction in primary care is feasible and acceptable to both physicians and patients. It is as effective as induction in specialized care in reducing street-opioid use and ensuring engagement and retention in treatment for opioid dependence.


TRIAL REGISTRATION
Number Eudract 2008-001338-28; ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00657397; International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number Register ISRCTN31125511.
Triptolide and its expanding multiple pharmacological functions.

Triptolide, a diterpene triepoxide, is a major active component of extracts derived from the medicinal plant Tripterygium wilfordii Hook F (TWHF). Triptolide has multiple pharmacological activities including anti-inflammatory, immune modulation, antiproliferative and proapoptotic activity. So, triptolide has been widely used to treat inflammatory diseases, autoimmune diseases, organ transplantation and even tumors. Triptolide cannot only induce tumor cell apoptosis directly, but can also enhance apoptosis induced by cytotoxic agents such as TNF-α, TRAIL and chemotherapeutic agents regardless of p53 phenotype by inhibiting NFκB activation. Recently, the cellular targets of triptolide, such as MKP-1, HSP, 5-Lox, RNA polymerase and histone methyl-transferases had been demonstrated. However, the clinical use of triptolide is often limited by its severe toxicity and water-insolubility. New water-soluble triptolide derivatives have been designed and synthesized, such as PG490-88 or F60008, which have been shown to be safe and potent antitumor agent. Importantly, PG490-88 has been approved entry into Phase I clinical trial for treatment of prostate cancer in USA. This review will focus on these breakthrough findings of triptolide and its implications.
OSNR improvement of coherent uncompensated optical transmission systems for various commercial optical fiber types

In this paper, we analyse the theoretical performance of uncompensated optical transmission system using Gaussian Noise (GN) model considering the effect of amplified spontaneous emission (ASE) noise summation and the generation of nonlinear interference (NLI) noise due to the erbium doped fibre amplifier (EDFA) and the number of channels. We optimize the optical SNR (OSNR) for computed NLI and ASE noise on coherent uncompensated optical transmission systems (CUOTS) considering four different commercial optical fibre types (SSMF, PSCF150, LEAF, and SMFULL). The bit error rate (BER) is computed for obtained OSNR considering PM-BPSK, PM-QPSK, and PM-16QAM modulation formats where each format runs at 32 GBaud symbol rate.
European Stroke Organization guidelines for the management of intracranial aneurysms and subarachnoid haemorrhage.

BACKGROUND
Intracranial aneurysm with and without subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH) is a relevant health problem: The overall incidence is about 9 per 100,000 with a wide range, in some countries up to 20 per 100,000. Mortality rate with conservative treatment within the first months is 50-60%. About one third of patients left with an untreated aneurysm will die from recurrent bleeding within 6 months after recovering from the first bleeding. The prognosis is further influenced by vasospasm, hydrocephalus, delayed ischaemic deficit and other complications. The aim of these guidelines is to provide comprehensive recommendations on the management of SAH with and without aneurysm as well as on unruptured intracranial aneurysm.


METHODS
We performed an extensive literature search from 1960 to 2011 using Medline and Embase. Members of the writing group met in person and by teleconferences to discuss recommendations. Search results were graded according to the criteria of the European Federation of Neurological Societies. Members of the Guidelines Committee of the European Stroke Organization reviewed the guidelines.


RESULTS
These guidelines provide evidence-based information on epidemiology, risk factors and prognosis of SAH and recommendations on diagnostic and therapeutic methods of both ruptured and unruptured intracranial aneurysms. Several risk factors of aneurysm growth and rupture have been identified. We provide recommendations on diagnostic work up, monitoring and general management (blood pressure, blood glucose, temperature, thromboprophylaxis, antiepileptic treatment, use of steroids). Specific therapeutic interventions consider timing of procedures, clipping and coiling. Complications such as hydrocephalus, vasospasm and delayed ischaemic deficit were covered. We also thought to add recommendations on SAH without aneurysm and on unruptured aneurysms.


CONCLUSION
Ruptured intracranial aneurysm with a high rate of subsequent complications is a serious disease needing prompt treatment in centres having high quality of experience of treatment for these patients. These guidelines provide practical, evidence-based advice for the management of patients with intracranial aneurysm with or without rupture. Applying these measures can improve the prognosis of SAH.
PERFORMANCE MODELING OF A COMPOSITE CYCLE ENGINE WITH ROTARY ENGINE

Efficiency improvements of Joule-Brayton-cycle based aircraft propulsion systems became ambitious in the last decades due to technological limitations. In the present paper, the promising cycle design of Composite Cycle Engines is combined with Rotary Engine core concept and a method for rotary engine performance simulation and its integration in aircraft propulsion system synthesis is introduced. Therefore, a detailed, crank angle resolved 1D-parametric model of a rotary internal combustion engine is presented The model covers the complex geometry of rotary combustion chamber, heat losses, leakage, valve opening characteristics for rotary engine inand outlet and crevice volumes. For the showcase of an advanced shortto-medium range aircraft application, rotary engine integration at the engine centerline is investigated. Initial results of an optimization study of rotary engine geometry and the Composite Cycle Engine performance are discussed and benchmarked against advanced Joule-Brayton cycle geared turbofan engine performance. A thrust specific fuel consumption reduction potential of 4.5% is found for the introduced concept, assuming same technology level. Due to estimated 31.2% higher power plant system weight of the Composite Cycle Engine concept compared to the geared turbofan, savings in fuel burn are supposed to be slightly smaller.
CBT for depression: a pilot RCT comparing mobile phone vs. computer

BACKGROUND
This paper reports the results of a pilot randomized controlled trial comparing the delivery modality (mobile phone/tablet or fixed computer) of a cognitive behavioural therapy intervention for the treatment of depression. The aim was to establish whether a previously validated computerized program (The Sadness Program) remained efficacious when delivered via a mobile application.


METHOD
35 participants were recruited with Major Depression (80% female) and randomly allocated to access the program using a mobile app (on either a mobile phone or iPad) or a computer. Participants completed 6 lessons, weekly homework assignments, and received weekly email contact from a clinical psychologist or psychiatrist until completion of lesson 2. After lesson 2 email contact was only provided in response to participant request, or in response to a deterioration in psychological distress scores. The primary outcome measure was the Patient Health Questionnaire 9 (PHQ-9). Of the 35 participants recruited, 68.6% completed 6 lessons and 65.7% completed the 3-months follow up. Attrition was handled using mixed-model repeated-measures ANOVA.


RESULTS
Both the Mobile and Computer Groups were associated with statistically significantly benefits in the PHQ-9 at post-test. At 3 months follow up, the reduction seen for both groups remained significant.


CONCLUSIONS
These results provide evidence to indicate that delivering a CBT program using a mobile application, can result in clinically significant improvements in outcomes for patients with depression.


TRIAL REGISTRATION
Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN 12611001257954.
A Review of Avner Greif's Institutions and the Path to the Modern Economy: Lessons from Medieval Trade

Avner Greif's Institutions and the Path to the Modern Economy: Lessons from Medieval Trade (Cambridge University Press, 2006) is a major work in the ongoing project of many economists and economic historians to show that institutions are the fundamental driver of all economic history and of all contemporary differences in economic performance. This review outlines the contribution of this book to the project and the general status of this long standing ambition.
Bhutta-Not by the Book : Facebook as a Sampling Frame 1 Not by the Book : Facebook as Sampling Frame

Social networking sites and online questionnaires make it possible to do survey research faster, cheaper, and with less assistance than ever before. The methods are especially well-suited for snowball sampling of elusive subpopulations. This note describes my experience surveying thousands of Catholics via Facebook in less than a month, at little expense, and without hired help. Although the respondents were disproportionately female, young, educated, and religiously active, their responses preserved key correlations found in standard surveys conducted by Gallup and the GSS. I relate my methods to existing Web-based methods and offer concrete suggestions for future work. Online social networking sites (SNSs) offer new ways for researchers to conduct studies quickly, cheaply, and single-handedly – especially when seeking to construct " snowball " samples for exploratory work. Facebook is currently the SNS best suited for this type of research, thanks to size (currently exceeding 500 million users worldwide), features, intensive use, and continuing growth. Each Facebook user is directly linked to his or her personal " friends, " while also having access to membership in one or more of the millions of Facebook groups that connect other users throughout the world. Facebook groups are virtual communities linking people with some shared interest, attribute, or cause. Researchers can readily sample populations of interest by working through existing groups or creating new ones. Although researchers and journalists devote much attention to social networking, I have yet to locate any work that exploits SNSs as a tool of research. Existing SNS research focuses on questions related specifically to the phenomenon of online social networking: what functions do SNSs serve for those who use them, and what benefits do users derive (Joinson 2008)? Is the
Effects of weighted vests on attention, impulse control, and on-task behavior in children with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder.

OBJECTIVE. In this study, we examined the effectiveness of using weighted vests for improving attention, impulse control, and on-task behavior in children with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). METHOD. In a randomized, two-period crossover design, 110 children with ADHD were measured using the Conners' Continuous Performance Test-II (CPT-II) task. RESULTS. In the weighted vest condition, the participants did show significant improvement in all three attentional variables of the CPT-II task, including inattention; speed of processing and responding; consistency of executive management; and three of four on-task behaviors, including off task, out of seat, and fidgets. No significant improvements in impulse control and automatic vocalizations were found. CONCLUSION. Although wearing a weighted vest is not a cure-all strategy, our findings support the use of the weighted vest to remedy attentional and on-task behavioral problems of children with ADHD.