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Language Technology Research Group at the University of Helsinki 331

{ "en": "Households (and countries) that were most prone to spend cannot borrow any more. To revive growth, others must be encouraged to spend – governments that can still borrow should run larger deficits, and rock-bottom interest rates should discourage thrifty households from saving.", "zh": "芝加哥—世界发达民主国家陷入了危机，关于什么是危机的源头以及如何补救，出现了两种相互对立的声音。第一种为人所熟知的诊断是需求因为危机前积累的高债务而崩溃。最具支出倾向的家庭（以及国家）再也无法借到钱了。为了重振增长，必须鼓励其他家庭和国家来支出——仍然能够借钱的政府应该扩大赤字，同时极低的利率应该阻止节约的家庭继续储蓄。" }

{ "en": "Under these circumstances, budgetary recklessness is a virtue, at least in the short term. In the medium term, once growth revives, debt can be paid down and the financial sector curbed so that it does not inflict another crisis on the world.", "zh": "这种观点认为，粗犷的预算是一种美德，至少在短期看是如此。从中期看，只要增长能够得到提振，债务就能活得偿付，而金融部门得到了抑制，因此不会在世界上掀起另一场危机。" }

{ "en": "This narrative – the standard Keynesian line, modified for a debt crisis – is the one to which most government officials, central bankers, and Wall Street economists have subscribed, and needs little elaboration. Its virtue is that it gives policymakers something clear to do, with promised returns that match the political cycle.", "zh": "这种观点是标准的凯恩斯主义，只是根据债务危机做了些许修正。该观点受到了大部分政府官员、中央银行和华尔街经济学家的支持，已无需再赘述了。其优点在于向决策者明确指出了行动方向，还给出了符合政治周期的预期回报。不幸的是，尽管已经实施了刺激措施，但增长仍然疲软，而且，从短期看，要找到给力的新支出之源越来越困难了。" }

{ "en": "Attention is therefore shifting to the second narrative, which suggests that the advanced economies’ fundamental capacity to grow by making useful things has been declining for decades, a trend that was masked by debt-fueled spending. More such spending will not return these countries to a sustainable growth path.", "zh": "于是，人们的目光开始转移到第二种观点。这种观点认为，发达经济体通过生产有用的东西获得增长的基本能力下滑已经持续了数十年之久了，其特征便是用债务来支撑支出。更多的同类支出无法给这些国家带来可持续的增长。相反，它们必须改善增长环境。" }

{ "en": "Several factors, including post-war reconstruction, the resurgence of trade after the protectionist 1930’s, the introduction of new technologies in power, transport, and communications across countries, and expansion of educational attainment, underpinned the long boom. But, as Tyler Cowen has argued in his book The Great Stagnation, once these “low-hanging fruit” were plucked, it became much harder to propel growth from the 1970’s onward.", "zh": "第二种观点的着眼点始于20世纪五六十年代，当时正是西方和日本的高速增长期。几大因素——包括战后重建、20世纪30年代保护主义风潮过去之后的贸易复兴、电力、运输和跨国通信方面的新技术，以及教育程度的改善——推动了长期繁荣。但是，泰勒·柯万（Tyler Cowen）在其《大停滞》（The Great Stagnation）一书中指出，这些“低处的果实”被摘取殆尽后，进入20世纪70年代以来，提振增长就变得日益困难了。" }

{ "en": "Meanwhile, as Wolfgang Streeck writes persuasively in New Left Review, democratic governments, facing what seemed, in the 1960’s, like an endless vista of innovation and growth, were quick to expand the welfare state. But, when growth faltered, this meant that government spending expanded, even as its resources shrank.", "zh": "与此同时，沃尔夫冈·斯特里克（Wolfgang Streeck）在《新左翼评论》（New Left Review）中雄辩地写道，民主政府在20世纪60年代面临着看似永远光明的创新和增长前景，因此大踏步地进入了福利国家的行列。但是，当增长开始放缓时，这意味着政府支出的膨胀（尽管此时其创收资源出现了萎缩）。在一定的时间里，央行承担起了支出的重任。由此产生的高通胀引起了广泛的不满，特别是在增长不见提振的情况下。人们对凯恩斯主义刺激的信任度下降了，尽管高通胀确实降低了公债水平。" }

{ "en": "Central banks then began to focus on low and stable inflation as their primary objective, and became more independent from their political masters. But deficit spending by governments continued apace, and public debt as a share of GDP in industrial countries climbed steadily from the late 1970’s, this time without inflation to reduce its real value.", "zh": "此后，央行开始将稳定的低通胀作为其首要目标，并越来越独立于行政。但政府的赤字支出并没有放慢脚步，发达国家公债水平占GDP的比例从20世纪70年代末开始稳步攀升，这一次不再有通胀来帮它们拉低债务的真实价值了。" }

{ "en": "Recognizing the need to find new sources of growth, towards the end of Jimmy Carter’s presidency, and then under Ronald Reagan, the United States deregulated industry and the financial sector, as did Margaret Thatcher in the United Kingdom. Productivity growth increased substantially in these countries over time, which persuaded Continental Europe to adopt reforms of its own, often pushed by the European Commission.", "zh": "美国从吉米·卡特任期后半段和罗纳德·里根任期内开始认识到需要寻找新的增长源，并对产业和金融部门实施了去监管化，与此同时，撒切尔夫人在英国也采取了相似的动作。多年来，这些国家的生产率有了显著提高，受此影响，欧洲大陆国家也采取了改革（大多由欧洲委员会推动）。" }

{ "en": "Yet even this growth was not enough, given previous governments’ generous promises of health care and pensions – promises made even less tenable by rising life expectancy and falling birth rates. Public debt continued to grow.", "zh": "但由于此前政府承诺了过于慷慨的医疗和养老承诺，如此增长仍旧显得力不从心，而预期寿命的增加和出生率的下降使得政府愈加不堪重负了。公债水平继续增加。而教育程度适中的中产阶级在去监管化带来的增长中并没有获得好处（尽管作为消费者，他们获益良多）。" }

{ "en": "In some countries, most notably the US, a private-sector credit boom created jobs in low-skilled industries like construction, and precipitated a consumption boom as people borrowed against overvalued houses. In other countries, like Greece, as well as under regional administrations in Italy and Spain, a government-led hiring spree created secure jobs for the moderately educated.", "zh": "发达经济体疯狂寻找增长的最新阶段，各国可谓八仙过海各显神通。在有的国家（以美国为甚），私人部门的信贷繁荣为低技能行业（如建筑业）带来了大量工作岗位，而居民则通过以价值高估的房地产作抵押，借钱来维持消费繁荣。在其他国家（如希腊以及西班牙和意大利的部分地区），政府领导的招工潮为教育程度不高者提供了就业保障。" }

{ "en": "In this “fundamental” narrative, the advanced countries’ pre-crisis GDP was unsustainable, bolstered by borrowing and unproductive make-work jobs. More borrowed growth – the Keynesian formula – may create the illusion of normalcy, and may be useful in the immediate aftermath of a deep crisis to calm a panic, but it is no solution to a fundamental growth problem.", "zh": "在这一“基本面”观点看来，发达国家的危机前GDP增长是不可持续的，是用借贷和非生产性冗余工作岗位堆出来的。“借”来的繁荣——即凯恩斯模式——可以造成一种常态幻觉，在深度危机袭来后可以起到平息恐慌的作用，但绝非基本增长问题的解决办法。" }

{ "en": "If this diagnosis is correct, advanced countries need to focus on reviving innovation and productivity growth over the medium term, and on realigning welfare promises with revenue capacity, while alleviating the pain of the truly destitute in the short run. For example, Southern Europe’s growth potential may consist in deregulating service sectors and reducing employment protection to spur creation of more private-sector jobs for retrenched government workers and unemployed youth.", "zh": "如果这一诊断正确，那么发达国家就需要将注意力集中于重塑中期创新和生产率增长，同时根据收入能力重新定义福利承诺，在短期则致力于减轻真正赤贫者的痛苦。比如，南欧国家的增长潜力或许在于放松服务部门的监管、减少就业保护以为丢掉工作的政府员工和失业青年创造更多的私人部门工作岗位。" }

{ "en": "Too little government attention has been focused on such issues, partly because payoffs occur beyond electoral horizons, and partly because the effectiveness of government programs has been mixed. Tax reform, however, can provide spur retraining and maintain incentives to work, even while fixing gaping fiscal holes.", "zh": "在美国，当务之急是改善潜在工作岗位和工人技能之间的匹配度。个人要比政府更清楚知道他们需要什么，并据此行动。比如，大量妇女正在脱离低收入岗位，以便获得更好的技能叩开高收入职位之门。政府在这些方面的关注度远远不够，部分是因为其好处要在在任者任期结束后才会显现，也有部分是因为政府计划的效率不够高。税收改革可以刺激人们参与再培训，也可以激励人们继续工作，且不耽误填补财政窟窿。" }

{ "en": "Three powerful forces, one hopes, will help to create more productive jobs in the future: better use of information and communications technology (and new ways to make it pay), lower-cost energy as alternative sources are harnessed, and sharply rising demand in emerging markets for higher-value-added goods.", "zh": "有三大力量有助于在未来创造更多的生产性岗位：对信息和通讯技术的更好的使用（以及新的收费方式）、随着替代资源的开发而实现的低成本能源，以及新兴市场快速增长的对高附加值产品的需求。" }

{ "en": "Or they can treat the crisis as a wake-up call to fix what debt has papered over in the last few decades. For better or worse, the narrative that persuades these countries’ governments and publics will determine their future – and that of the global economy.", "zh": "发达国家有的选择。它们可以若无其事（尽管消费者如同惊弓之鸟，“动物精神”也需要刺激来予以提振）。它们也可以将此次危机视为修正过去数十年来产生债务的问题的契机。无论如何，政府和公众选择相信哪种观点将决定它们的未来——以及全球经济的未来。" }

{ "en": "Financing the Next Development Agenda", "zh": "为下一个发展日程融资" }

{ "en": "WASHINGTON, DC – As the 2015 target date for the Millennium Development Goals approaches, the United Nations is intensifying its efforts to foster debate about what comes next for promotion of development worldwide. The outcome of these discussions will shape policies and investment aimed at spurring GDP growth, strengthening human capital, and promoting more inclusive prosperity.", "zh": "华盛顿—随着千年发展目标2015年到期日的临近，联合国抓紧了关于下一轮促进全球发展措施的争论。这些讨论的结果将决定旨在刺激GDP增长、强化人力资本和促进更具包容性的繁荣的政策和投资。" }

{ "en": "Meanwhile, the prospect of a rise in global temperature of more than 2°C (3.6°F) over pre-industrial levels by the end of this century (which would trigger global warming’s most damaging effects) calls for higher investment in sustainable urbanization, climate-smart agriculture, and social safety nets. Both factors challenge us to define, in the longer term, more sustainable patterns of production and consumption.", "zh": "2050年，世界人口预计将达到90亿——其中很大一部分将居住在发展中或欠发达国家——国际社会必须改善全球教育、卫生和就业机会的普及。与此同时，全球气温预计将在本世纪末较工业化前水平升高2℃以上（这将触发全球变暖最危险的效应）意味着需要增加可持续城市化、气候智能型农业和社会安全网的投资。两大因素对我们构成了挑战，从长期看，我们需要更加可持续的生产和消费模式。" }

{ "en": "Governments, civil society, and the private sector must rise to the challenge, cooperating to find and implement creative solutions. But, first, they must anticipate the associated financing requirements, which will soon surpass the current capacities of governments and international donors, and take action now to activate new, reliable sources of financing.", "zh": "政府、公民社会和私人部门必须应对这一挑战，合作寻找并实施创造性解决方案。但是，首先，我们必须预计相关融资要求——融资要求很快就会超过政府和国际赞助者当前的能力；同时，我们还必须现在就采取行动激活可靠地新融资源。" }

{ "en": "To start, governments should design targeted, evidence-based policies and support the development of sound institutions. This would make government services more effective, while helping to catalyze additional development aid from traditional donors and mobilize private-sector resources.", "zh": "首先，政府应该设计基于证据的定向政策并支持可靠机构的发展。这将让政府服务更加有效，同时有助于刺激传统赞助者提高发展援助以及动员私人部门资金源。" }

{ "en": "In many countries, there is considerable scope for domestic resource mobilization. Broadening the tax base, improving tax administration, and closing gaps in the value-added tax could make a significant difference in lower-income countries, where tax revenues account for only about 10-14% of GDP, compared to 20-30% of GDP in high-income countries.", "zh": "在许多国家，国内资源动员空间相当大。扩大税基、改善税制以及缩小增值税差异能让低收入国家发生翻天覆地的变化，在这类国家，税收收入只占GDP的10—14%，而高收入国家占GDP的20—30%。" }

{ "en": "More equitable taxation would have a positive impact on governance, another important tool for mobilizing domestic resources. With improved corporate and public governance and clear transfer-pricing policies, resource-rich countries could shore up their capacity to negotiate fair contracts with extractive industries, balance revenues and expenditures over time, and manage their natural endowments more transparently.", "zh": "更平等的税收能对治理产生积极效应，而治理是动员国内资源的又一重要工具。改善公司和公共治理、明确移定价政策能让资源富裕国获得与开采业谈判公平合同的能力，逐渐平衡收入和支出，并更透明地管理其自然资源禀赋。" }

{ "en": "For example, only 8% of the $409 billion spent on fossil-fuel subsidies in 2010 reached the poorest 20% of the population. A targeted support program could increase substantially the efficiency of spending, freeing up resources for education, health, and poverty eradication.", "zh": "这些方面的进步有助于政府有效地将钱花在受益最大的人群上。比如，2010年所发放的4090亿美元化石燃料补助中只有8%送到了最贫困的20%人群手中。定向支持项目能极大地增加支出的效率，解放资源用于教育、卫生和减贫。" }

{ "en": "Furthermore, promoting financial deepening and inclusiveness could accelerate private-sector growth, creating more opportunities. Indeed, broader access to financial services would help the estimated 400 million micro, small, and medium-size enterprises in developing countries to prosper, while enabling the 2.5 billion people worldwide who currently lack access to such services to build their assets.", "zh": "此外，促进金融深化和包容能加速私人部门增长，创造更多机会。事实上，金融服务的普及有助于发展中国家约4亿家（估计值）微型、小型和中型企业繁荣，同时让全世界25亿目前无法获得金融服务的人建立自己的资产。" }

{ "en": "A deeper and more efficient financial sector would also reduce transaction costs and facilitate risk management. Local-currency bond markets could help to develop domestic investor bases and mobilize domestic savings to support long-term investments.", "zh": "更深化、更高效的金融部门还能降低交易成本、有利于风险管理。本币债券市场有助于发展国内投资者基础病动员国内储蓄支持长期投资。" }

{ "en": "At the same time, the international community should work to improve the availability and effectiveness of official development assistance. The ODA target of 0.7% of GDP – agreed in 2002 at the International Conference on Financing for Development in Monterrey, Mexico – should motivate countries to increase their contributions.", "zh": "与此同时，国际社会应该致力于改善官方发展援助（ODA）的普及型和效率。2002年墨西哥蒙特雷国际发展融资会议（International Conference on Financing for Development）为ODA设定了GDP的0.7%的目标值，这应该能够刺激各国增加各自的贡献力度。它们还可以采取措施逐年增加ODA的可预测性。" }

{ "en": "Donors should structure aid to ensure that it supports sound national development policies and programs, rather than their own narrow interests. This is particularly relevant as emerging development partners, especially the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), offer new kinds of aid packages that incorporate investment and non-financial assistance.", "zh": "赞助者应该设计好援助结构，以保证支持优质国民发展政策和计划，而不是满足它们自身的狭隘利益。这一点随着新兴发展伙伴——特别是金砖国家（巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非）——提供结合了投资和非金融援助的新形式的援助方案而显得特别重要。" }

{ "en": "Private charities, which have been instrumental in promoting innovation in fields such as health care, the environment, and education, could provide valuable insight into channeling aid more effectively. More generally, improving coordination among donors would help to maximize the impact of aid on the ground.", "zh": "私人慈善机构——它们一直是刺激卫生、环境和教育等领域创新的有力工具——能提供关于如何更高效地使用援助的宝贵洞见。更一般地，改善赞助者间的协调有助于援助项目影响的最大化。" }

{ "en": "Donors should leverage aid to “grow the pie” and to diversify financing sources for the world’s poorest countries by providing risk guarantees, innovative investment vehicles, debt syndication, and co-financing arrangements. Attracting even a fraction of the assets held by institutional investors, sovereign-wealth funds, and public pension funds could boost development finance substantially.", "zh": "ODA仍是脆弱的极低收入国家重要的融资源，但它仅占流向发展中国家的净金融流的7%，外国直接投资、侨汇、长期债务和资产组合投资占比均高于ODA。赞助者应该利用援助“做大馅饼”并通过提供风险担保、创新性投资载体、债务承销团和共同融资安排实现世界最贫困国家融资源的多样化。吸引哪怕一小部分机构投资者、主权财富基金和公共养老基金所持资产也能够极大地提振发展融资。" }

{ "en": "Reducing transfer costs, which average an estimated 9% of the value of transactions, would put more money into the hands of those who need it most. Tailoring financial products for diaspora communities could attract resources for investment, while reinforcing migrants’ ties – economic and otherwise – to their home countries.", "zh": "侨民是另一个发展融资的潜在主要来源。降低汇款成本——据估计平均而言占交易价值的9%——将使更多的钱流向最需要它们的人的手中。为侨民社区量身定做金融产品能吸引投资源，同时加强移民与其祖国的经济和其他联系。" }

{ "en": "Finally, the international community bears a special responsibility for delivering global public goods.", "zh": "最后，国际社会有实现全球公共品多样化的特殊责任。保护环境、阻止传染病传播、强化国际金融结构、促进发展中国家参与全球贸易体系以及增进知识交换的责任是国民发展优先项和全球利益的交汇点。" }

{ "en": "Duty-free, quota-free access to OECD markets, complemented by simpler, more transparent rules of origin, would raise GDP by 1% in the least-developed countries, lifting millions out of poverty. Investment in statistical capacity would help governments and businesses worldwide to make better policy decisions, based on a more accurate accounting of the associated costs and benefits.", "zh": "免责、无限额地进入经合组织市场，并辅之以更简单、更透明的原产地规则能使最不发达国家GDP提高1%，让千百万人摆脱平困。投资于统计能力有助于全球政府和企业更好地做出政策决策，让计量相关成本和收益更加正确。" }

{ "en": "The challenge of the post-2015 development agenda lies in finding creative solutions to support prosperity, equality, and sustainability. Together, governments, civil society, international organizations, and the private sector can improve the availability and quality of finance for development, and shape a better future for all.", "zh": "2015年后的发展日程的挑战在于找出创造性解决方案支持繁荣、平等和可持续性。政府、公民社会、国际组织和私人部门齐心协力就能改善发展融资的普及和质量，为所有人带来更美好的未来。" }

{ "en": "A Czech Moment", "zh": "捷克风光时刻" }

{ "en": "PRAGUE – As I listened to what some Europeans were saying as my country prepared to take over the presidency of the European Union, I heard dim echoes of Neville Chamberlain’s infamous description of Czechoslovakia as “a faraway country of which we know little.” I suppose that Donald Rumsfeld’s misguided bid a few years ago to incite a divide between “new and old” Europe contributed to the re-emergence of that disdainful attitude.", "zh": "布拉格--当捷克准备接手成为欧盟轮值主席国的时候，有些欧洲人议论我国。我听到他们言论好像是张伯伦对捷克斯洛伐克声名狼藉评论的回音，那也就是，我们是“一个很少听说的穷乡僻壤国家”。几年前，拉姆斯菲尔德想要把欧洲分出“新欧洲”和“老欧洲”实为不智，但是他的这一言论确重新体现了这一令人厌恶态度。" }

{ "en": "We Czechs are 100% European, and were even when the Iron Curtain cut us off from democratic Europe. Indeed, our pro-EU sentiments may be all the stronger because our membership in the Union, like our freedom, is so comparatively new.", "zh": "实际上，世上根本就没有什么“新欧洲”和“老欧洲”，历史上从来就没有这回事。欧洲重新统一并且与共产主义决裂目前已经将近二十年时间。我们捷克人是100%的欧洲人，而且在铁幕把我们从民主欧洲分裂的时代更为如此。确实，随着加入欧盟以及刚刚获得自由，我们的亲欧盟情感更为强烈。" }

{ "en": "So no one in Europe needs to fear that the Czech Republic has some nostalgic or idiosyncratic agenda that it wants to impose on the Union. On the contrary, events have imposed an agenda on Europe that we cannot escape and for which solidarity – true union – will be needed.", "zh": "所以，欧洲没有必要担心捷克共和国有什么怀旧或者怪异的议程来施加在欧盟头上。相反，国际大事确给欧洲施加了我们所无法逃避的议程。对此，我们需要真正的欧洲团结。" }

{ "en": "Unfortunately, conditions across the Union will likely worsen before they begin to improve. The type of social unrest recently witnessed in Greece may spread, because the downturn is likely to take a disproportionate toll on Europe’s young people, who are seeking jobs at a time when hard-pressed European businesses will be able to offer them very few.", "zh": "我们面临的主要、也是最为迫切的问题是正在席卷欧盟的金融和经济危机。不幸的是，整个欧盟的形势在转好之前还要继续变坏。最近在希腊发生的社会动乱可能蔓延，这是因为经济衰退对欧洲年轻人的影响可能更加严重。这些找工作的年轻人正好赶上不景气的欧洲企业无法提供多少就业机会。" }

{ "en": "It will fall to the Union, once again, to help transform despair into hope. We Czechs know something about this, as the wrenching economic transition that we underwent in the 1990’s taught us much about how the right policies can break the grip of hopelessness.", "zh": "这样，欧盟就要再次帮助把绝望转化为希望。我们捷克人对此有所了解，因为我们在九十年代经历了艰苦的经济转型，告诉了我们许多道理，也就是正确的政策可以打破绝望钳制。" }

{ "en": "To contain today’s financial and economic crisis, Europe will also need to continue the cooperation that it has shown up to this point. The very existence of our Union, and particularly of the euro, has already helped to prevent the competitive devaluations and beggar-thy-neighbor policies that ravaged Europe during the 1930’s – the last time the continent faced so brutal an economic downturn.", "zh": "欧洲为了遏制当今的金融和经济危机就必须继续进行迄今为止的合作。二十世纪三十年代，欧洲大陆面临同样残酷的经济衰退。如今，欧盟、特别是欧元的存在本身就已经防止了当时破坏欧洲的各国货币竞相贬值以及让邻国贫困的政策。" }

{ "en": "For now, EU governments’ coordinated fiscal stimulus has deprived populists of their usual charge that the EU is indifferent to the fate of individuals. Even more policy coordination will be needed both to confront the crisis and to re-establish EU norms once the storm clouds begin to dissipate.", "zh": "但是我们并不能自满，认为各国民族自我观念会受到限制。目前，欧盟各国政府协调财政刺激政策，民粹主义者通常指责欧盟对单个个人的命运无动于衷也就不攻自破。为了应对危机以及在暴风开始消失的时候重新建立欧盟规则，人们就需要更多的政策协调。" }

{ "en": "Although it is right that the Stability and Growth Pact has become more flexible in these extraordinary times, its rules did secure a successful first decade for the euro. These rules must eventually be restored intact if Europe is to return to the path of sustainable growth, and a consensus will need to be forged now to make that happen.", "zh": "欧洲稳定和增长公约在这一特殊时期变得更为灵活，这是不假。但是这一公约规则确保了欧元取得第一个十年的成功。欧洲要想回到可持续增长的道路上来，这些规则就必须最终得以恢复，而且人们必须就如何促成这一局面达成一致意见。" }

{ "en": "A new Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA) between the EU and the Russian Federation must be negotiated. Those negotiations should have begun seriously last year, but the war in Georgia intervened to put them on hold.", "zh": "我们担任欧盟轮值主席国期间将要面临的第二个关键挑战就是俄国。我们必须谈判制定一项欧盟与俄罗斯联邦之间新的伙伴关系和合作协议。谈判原本应该在去年就认真开始，但是格鲁吉亚战事却把这一工作陷于停顿。" }

{ "en": "Russia’s economy is now in far worse shape than that of EU members. The collapse of world oil and gas prices has wounded Russia’s budget, and lack of investment in the country’s energy sector over the years is now causing the declining production that economists have long predicted.", "zh": "现在这些谈判已经恢复，但是谈判的背景发生了剧烈的变化。俄国经济现在比欧盟国家的要糟糕许多。国际石油和天然气价格大跌损害了俄国的预算，而且俄国能源部门多年来投资不足正在造成经济学家们长久以来就预言的产量下降。" }

{ "en": "Until now, Russia has cared less about a new PCA than the EU, because two-thirds of Russia’s exports to the Union comprise natural resources, which bring in cash even without the strong rules that a PCA provides. Given the stark changes in economic conditions, however, it is now in Russia’s national interest to reassure international markets that it is a reliable place to do business, for which a new PCA would serve as an ideal signal.", "zh": "目前为止，俄国对协议的关心并不像欧盟那样强烈，因为俄国向欧盟出口的三分之二是自然资源。因此，即使没有协议规定的硬性条款也能够带来现金收入。但是，由于经济形势发生了剧烈变化，现在俄国向国际市场重新保证其是个经商的可靠地方符合自身的利益，而新的协议就是一个理想的信号。" }

{ "en": "Moreover, without a new PCA, individual European countries may feel it necessary to seek even more bilateral agreements with Russia. Indeed, many EU members have been in a race with each other to see who will be Russia’s closest friend in the Union.", "zh": "而且，没有新的协议，欧洲各国就会感到有必要与俄国签订更多的双边协议。确实，许多欧盟成员国已经开展竞赛，看看谁成为欧盟中与俄国最为亲近的朋友。但是这一竞赛带来的双边协议有时候会损害其他欧盟成员国，而且可能破坏整个欧盟的内部平衡。只有建立在规则基础上的欧盟框架才能够为对各国和整个欧盟对俄关系提供坚实的基础。" }

{ "en": "When the Georgia crisis erupted, Europe united around a single position on Russia’s withdrawal. It is the Czech Republic’s task, and that of the Swedish EU presidency that will follow our own, to maintain this unity as the PCA negotiations move forward.", "zh": "尽管多边主义毫无疑问非常重要，但是欧洲外交的主要力量并不是其专心致志建立规则基础之上的多边主义，而是团结。格鲁吉亚危机爆发之时，欧洲团结一致，要求俄国撤军。捷克共和国的任务，以及随后担任主席国的瑞典的任务就是在协议谈判的时候维持团结。" }

{ "en": "During the 1990’s, the US and Europe erred in treating Russia with benign neglect. It would be a mistake for Russia to respond in kind today by seeking to prolong the PCA negotiations in the hope that a possibly more amenable EU president may one day offer softer terms. We, like all EU presidencies, will be representing the wider Union interests when we negotiate.", "zh": "在九十年代，美国和欧洲善意忽略俄国犯下错误。如今，如果俄国寻求拖延协议谈判，从而希望更为屈从的欧盟主席国会有一天提出更为软弱的条款，那就是错误。我们和其他欧盟轮值主席一样，将会在谈判的时候推动广泛的欧盟利益。" }

{ "en": "The Trade Delusion", "zh": "贸易的迷思" }

{ "en": "Transatlantic and transpacific trade negotiations are progressing slowly, held back by the resistance of special interests. But, though many experts fear that protectionism is undermining globalization, threatening to impede global economic growth, slower growth in global trade may be inevitable, and trade liberalization is decreasingly important.", "zh": "发自伦敦——自2008年以来，全球贸易的增长幅度稍微落后于全球GDP的增长。世界贸易组织多哈回合谈判以失败告终。在各特殊利益集团的阻挠之下，跨大西洋和跨太平洋的贸易谈判也步履维艰。尽管许多专家担心保护主义会破坏全球化并威胁到全球经济增长，但全球贸易增长放缓很可能是无法避免的，而贸易自由化的重要性也在不断降低。" }

{ "en": "To be sure, for 65 years, rapid trade growth has played a vital role in economic development, with average advanced-economy industrial tariffs plummeting from more than 30% to below 5%. The creation of Europe’s single market facilitated increased intra-European trade.", "zh": "可以肯定的是，过去65年以来，贸易的快速增长在经济发展中扮演了至关重要的作用，使得发达经济体的各行业平均关税从超过30%暴跌到5%以下。欧洲单一市场的建立促进了欧盟内部贸易的增长。日本、韩国以及台湾以出口主导型增长实现了经济的快速赶超。中国在过去30年中遵循了同样的路径。从1990年到2008年，贸易增速相当于全球产出增速的两倍。" }

{ "en": "But there is no reason why trade should grow faster than GDP forever. Indeed, even if there were no trade barriers at all, trade might grow significantly more slowly than GDP in some periods.", "zh": "但是贸易不可能永远比GDP增长得更快。事实上，即使没有贸易壁垒，贸易增长也可能会在某些时期明显慢于GDP增长。有几方面因素使得我们正在进入这样一个时期。" }

{ "en": "Richer people spend an increasing share of their income on services that are either impossible to trade (for example, restaurant meals) or difficult to trade (such as health services). Non-tradable sectors tend to account for a growing share of employment and economic activity.", "zh": "首先，发达经济体的消费模式发生了变化。富人越来越多的把收入份额花费在服务上，这些服务要么是不可能进行贸易（例如，外出用餐），要么是难以贸易（如卫生服务）。非贸易部门在就业和经济活动中占据的份额越来越大。" }

{ "en": "For several decades, that tendency has been offset by ever more intensive trading of tradable goods, often passing through many countries in complex supply chains. In the future, however, the shift to non-tradable consumption may dominate.", "zh": "几十年来，这一趋势一直被越发频密的可贸易商品交易所抵消，这些交易往往通过复杂的供应链在许多国家之间流通。然而在未来，非贸易消费可能转而占据主导地位。" }

{ "en": "China’s dramatic manufacturing growth reflected low wages up to now. But as real wages in China and other emerging economies grow, incentives for trade will decline.", "zh": "事实上，甚至制造业商品的贸易频密度也可能会下降。贸易在一定程度上是由劳动力成本差异所驱动的。目前为止，中国制造业的急剧增长反映了其低工资水平。但随着中国和其它新兴经济体实际工资的提高，贸易的激励因素将下降。全球收入越是趋同，贸易的次数就越少。" }

{ "en": "In addition, as the economists Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee of MIT have argued in their book The Second Machine Age, rapid advances in information technology may enable increasingly extensive automation. Some manufacturing activities, though few jobs, may well return to developed countries, as the advantages of proximity to customers and lower transport costs outweigh decreasingly important differences in labor costs.", "zh": "另外，正如麻省理工学院经济学家埃里克·布伦乔尔森（Erik Brynjolfsson）和安德鲁·麦卡菲（Andrew McAfee）在《第二次机器时代》（The Second Machine Age）一书中所说，飞速发展的信息技术可以使自动化技术的应用日益广泛。一些生产活动，尽管只能很少的就业，很可能会回到发达国家开展，因为接近客户的优势和更低的运输成本更胜于重要性逐渐降低的劳动力成本差异。" }

{ "en": "Global trade as a share of GDP may therefore decline, but without adverse consequences for global economic growth. Rising productivity does not require relentlessly increasing trade intensity.", "zh": "全球贸易作为全球GDP的组成部分，其比例可能因此下降，但不会对全球经济增长产生不利影响。生产率的提高无需不断增加贸易频密度。" }

{ "en": "Optimal trade intensity depends on many factors – such as relative labor costs, transport costs, productivity levels, and economy-of-scale effects. Trends in these factors might make reduced trade intensity not only inevitable but desirable.", "zh": "毕竟，虽然地球没有跟其他星球进行贸易，其经济却仍然保持增长。最优贸易频密度取决于许多因素——如相对劳动力成本，运输成本，生产力水平，经济规模效应。这些因素的变化趋势会令贸易频密度的降低变得不可避免，但却是有利的。" }

{ "en": "Even if that is true, international trade will still play a vital role, and preventing any reversal of past trade liberalization is essential. But further trade liberalization is bound to be of declining importance to economic growth.", "zh": "即使这是真的,国际贸易仍将发挥至关重要的作用，防止对过去贸易自由化进程的逆转是至关重要的。但进一步的贸易自由化对经济增长的重要性必然会下降。" }

{ "en": "With industrial tariffs already dramatically reduced most potential benefits of trade liberalization have already been grasped. Estimates of the benefits of further trade liberalization are often surprisingly low – no more than a few percentage points of global GDP.", "zh": "由于各行业关税都已大大减少，大多数贸易自由化的潜在好处已经被开发。估计进一步的贸易自由化的好处往往出奇地低——不超过全球GDP的几个百分点。" }

{ "en": "That is small compared to the cost of the 2008 financial crisis, which has left output in several advanced economies 10-15% below pre-crisis trend levels. It is small, too, compared to the difference in economic performance between successful catch-up countries – such as China – and other countries that have enjoyed the same access to global markets but have performed less well for other reasons.", "zh": "这相比2008年金融危机的影响来说极为微小，后者导致多个发达经济体的经济产出比危机前下跌了10~15%。而这相对于那些成功实现经济追赶的国家——比如中国——与那些同样拥有通往全球市场渠道但因为其他原因未能充分发力的国家之间的经济表现差异来说也相对较少。" }

{ "en": "And some liberalization – say, of advanced economies’ cotton imports – would undoubtedly benefit some low-income economies. But full trade liberalization would have a complex impact on the least developed economies, some of which would benefit only if compensated for the loss of the preferential access to advanced-economy markets that they currently enjoy.", "zh": "贸易谈判进展缓慢的主要原因并不是贸易保护主义的日渐增加；而是因为进一步自由化导致的复杂权衡取舍无法再被非常庞大的潜在利益所抵消。多哈回合的失败被认为是发展中国家所遭遇的挫折。同时一些自由化行动——比如发达国家的棉花进口——无疑会令一些低收入国家受益。但全面的贸易自由化会对那些最不发达的国家产生复杂的影响，其中一些国家可能会失去现在享有的通往发达经济体市场的优惠渠道，只有对此进行补偿才能让它们受益。" }

{ "en": "This implies that further progress in trade liberalization will be slow. But slow progress is a far less important challenge to growth prospects than the debt overhang in developed economies, or infrastructure and educational deficiencies in many developing economies.", "zh": "这意味着贸易自由化的进一步进展将会放缓。但相对于发达国家所面对的债务，或者许多发展中经济体的基础设施和教育缺口来说，这一缓慢进展只能算是一个次要的发展障碍。事实的真相往往会被忽视。过去的贸易自由化导致全球政策体制出现了一种偏见，以为进一步的自由化就能产生同样的结果。" }

{ "en": "But while the potential global benefits of trade liberalization have declined, reduced trade intensity might still impede economic development in some countries. Only a handful of economies over the last 60 years have fully caught up to advanced-economy living standards, and all relied on export-led growth to drive productivity and job creation in manufacturing.", "zh": "但虽然贸易自由化所带来的潜在全球利益在缩小，但贸易频密度的降低将依然阻碍某些国家的经济发展。在过去60年中只有少数几个国家完全赶上的发达国家的生活水平，而这些国家都是依靠出口导向型增长并通过制造业提高生产力和创造就业。在未来，单纯依靠这一模式将变得更为艰难。中国幅员辽阔，所以它必须比日本，台湾和韩国提早一个阶段去开发发展的国内驱动力；因此其出口将无可避免地（相对于GDP）下跌。" }

{ "en": "Meanwhile, for some low-income countries, increased manufacturing and service-sector automation of the sort described by Brynjolfsson and McAfee, whether within advanced economies or within China’s established industrial clusters, will make the path to middle- and high-income status more difficult to achieve. That poses important challenges for development policy, which further trade liberalization can alleviate only marginally.", "zh": "与此同时，对某些低收入国家来说，布伦乔尔森和麦卡菲所提出的那种制造业和服务业自动化，无论是在发达经济体还是中国已经成型的产业集群之中，都将令它们迈向中等/高收入国家的路径更加坎坷。这对发展政策的制定提出了严峻的挑战，而进一步的贸易自由化只是杯水车薪而已。" }

{ "en": "Rethinking the Monetization Taboo", "zh": "反思货币化戒条" }

{ "en": "LONDON – Now that the pace of the US Federal Reserve’s “tapering” of its asset-purchase program has been debated to death, attention will increasingly turn to prospects for interest-rate increases. But another question looms: How will central banks achieve a final “exit” from unconventional monetary policy and return balance sheets swollen by unconventional monetary policy to “normal” levels?", "zh": "发自伦敦——如今人们已经对美联储“缩减”资产收购计划的步骤进行了充分的讨论，而注意力也将逐渐转向对利率上升的预期方面。但同时又出现了另一个问题：央行们将如何达到一个退出非常规货币政策的最终“出口”，并把在非常规货币政策下过度膨胀的资产负债表恢复到“正常”的水平？" }

{ "en": "The Fed’s tapering merely slows the growth of its balance sheet. The authorities would still have to sell $3 trillion of bonds to return to the pre-crisis status quo.", "zh": "对许多人来说，一个更大的问题必须得到处理。美联储的缩减仅仅是减缓了其资产负债表的增速。如果想回到危机前水平的话，当局还要发行价值3万亿美元的债券。" }

{ "en": "The rarely admitted truth, however, is that there is no need for central banks’ balance sheets to shrink. They could stay permanently larger; and, for some countries, permanently bigger central-bank balance sheets will help reduce public-debt burdens.", "zh": "但一个很少被承认的真相就是各大央行其实无需去缩减自己的资产负债表规模。它们可以长期保持更大的规模；而对一些国家来说，这种长期大规模状况将有助于减轻公共债务负担。" }

{ "en": "The government owns the central bank, so the debt is to itself, and the interest expense comes back to the government as the central bank’s profit. If central bank holdings of government debt were converted into non-interest-bearing perpetual obligations, nothing substantive would change, but it would become obvious that some previously issued public debt did not need to be repaid.", "zh": "正如卡门·莱因哈特与肯尼思·罗格夫最近发表的一篇国际货币基金组织论文所指出的那样，那些发达经济都面临着一些无法仅仅借助一系列紧缩，拖延和增长就能消除的债务负担。但如果一家央行也持有本国债券的话，那就再也不存在什么纯粹的公共债务责任了。央行为政府所有，因此等于政府自己向自己借债， 而利息支出又以央行利息收入的形式返还给了政府。即便央行持有的政府债券被转化成无息长期债券，也不会有任何实质性的改变，但很显然一些从前发行的公共债权都不再需要偿还了。" }

{ "en": "In 2003, then-Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke argued that Japan, facing deflation, should increase public expenditure or cut taxes, funding the operation by printing money rather than issuing bonds. This, he argued, was bound to increase national income, because the direct stimulative effect would not be offset by concern about future debt burdens.", "zh": "这等同于债务出现之后投放的“直升飞机货币”。在2003年，时任美联储主席的本·伯南克认为面临通缩的日本应当增加公共支出或者减税，并通过印钞而非发行债券的方式来为这些措施注入资金。他认为这最终会增加国家收入，因为这种直接刺激的效应不会被对未来债务负担的担忧所抵消。" }

{ "en": "But the debts held by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could still be written off. In Japan’s case, this would reduce government debt by an amount equal to more than 40% of GDP today, and around 60% if implemented after the bond purchases planned for 2014.", "zh": "但他的建议却没有被采纳；大量的日本财政赤字其实是通过发债支撑的。但日本银行所持有的债务却依然是可以被注销的。对日本来说，这将可以削减相当于当前GDP总额40%的政府债务，如果在2014年计划的债权购买计划后实施的话甚至可以达到60%。" }

{ "en": "Objections focus on two risks: central-bank losses and excessive inflation. But both of these outcomes can be avoided.", "zh": "反对的焦点集中在两大风险之上：央行的损失以及过度通胀。但这两点后果其实都是可以避免的。" }

{ "en": "But central banks can choose to pay zero interest on a portion of the reserves that commercial banks hold with them, even when they increase the policy interest rate. And they can require commercial banks to hold zero-interest reserves at the central bank equal to a defined proportion of their loans, thus preventing inflationary growth of private credit and money.", "zh": "央行们用自身以零利率或者超低利率融来的钱去购买政府债券。因此随着利率上升，央行可能会面临支出超过收入的状况。但即便央行提升了政策利率，它们依然可以选择去向那一部分由商业银行持有的储蓄支付零利息。它们也可以要求商业银行在央行持有相当于其贷款特定比例的零利率储蓄，并因此防止私人信贷和货币的通胀性增长。" }

{ "en": "Where inflation is returning to target levels, debt monetization could be unnecessarily and dangerously stimulative. Central-bank bond sales, while certainly not inevitable, may be appropriate.", "zh": "长期的政府债务货币化无疑是技术上可行的。而这是否可取则取决于对通胀的预期。当通胀恢复到目标水平时，债务货币化就可能变成一种不必要且危险的刺激手段。央行债务出售，虽然注定无法避免，但也可以是恰当的。但如果通缩是真正威胁的话，长期的货币化可能是最佳的政策。" }

{ "en": "After two decades of low growth and deflation, Japanese gross public debt is now above 240% of GDP (and above 140% of GDP on a net basis); and, with the fiscal deficit at 9.5% of GDP, the debt burden continues to increase. According to the IMF, to reduce its net public debt to 80% of GDP by 2030, Japan would have to turn today’s 8.6% primary budget deficit (the balance excluding interest payments) into a 6.7% primary surplus by 2020 and maintain such surpluses continuously until 2030.", "zh": "我预测日本会在事实上将一些政府债务实施长期货币化。在经历了20年的低增长和通缩之后，日本的总公共债务已经超过了GDP的240%（如果以净债务计算的话则超过GDP的140%）；同时在相当于GDP9.5%的财政赤字之下，债务负担依然在不断增长。据国际货币基金组织统计，如果要在2030年将净公共债务总额降低到相当于GDP80%的话，日本必须在2020年将当前8.6%的基本预算赤字转变为6.7%的基本盈余，并维持这一状况到2030年。" }

{ "en": "That will not happen, and any attempt to reach that target would drive Japan into a severe depression. But the government does not need to repay the ¥140 trillion ($1.4 trillion) of its debt that the BoJ already owns.", "zh": "这种情况不会发生，而且任何试图实现这一目标的举措都将把日本带入一场严重衰退之中。但日本政府不需要偿还日本银行已经持有的140万亿日元（折合1.4万亿美元）债务。" }

{ "en": "Thereafter, its balance sheet may stabilize in absolute yen terms and fall slowly as a percentage of GDP, but its absolute size will probably never decrease – a likelihood that should cause no concern. It is precisely what happened to the Fed’s balance sheet after its wartime and postwar buying of US government bonds came to an end in 1951.", "zh": "日本银行将继续扩大其资产负债表直到达到2%的通胀目标。此后其资产负债表的日元净值将趋向稳定并以GDP的一定比例稳步下降，但其绝对规模或许永远不会减少——这是一种不会引发任何忧虑的可能性。而这也正是美联储的资产负债表在1951年结束购买美国政府战时和战后债券后所发生的情况。" }

{ "en": "Even as permanent monetization occurs, however, the truth may be obfuscated. If government bond repayments to the BoJ continued, but were always offset by new BoJ bond purchases, and if the BoJ kept the interest rate on reserves at zero, the net effect would be the same as a debt write-off, but the fiction of “normal” central-bank operations could be maintained.", "zh": "即便长期货币化的情况出现，但真相或许会被掩饰掉。如果日本政府债券对日本银行的偿付持续存在，但却往往会被新的央行债券购买所抵消，同时倘若日本银行将储蓄利率保持为零，那产生的净效应就等于注销了这些债务，但一个“正常”央行运作的虚构表象将得到维持。" }

{ "en": "That pretense may reflect a useful taboo: if we overtly recognize that debt write-off/monetization is possible, politicians might want to do it all the time and in excess, not just in circumstances that make it appropriate. The historical experience of Weimar Germany, or that of Zimbabwe today, illustrates the danger.", "zh": "央行可以在假装没有的情况下把债务货币化。这种假装可能反映出一个有用的戒条：如果我们公开承认债务注销/货币化是可能的，政治家们就可能时刻想着怎样去滥用它，而不是选择适当的时机去实施。过去德国魏玛政府，当今津巴布韦的遭遇都反映了这种风险。" }

{ "en": "As a result, even when permanent monetization occurs – as it almost certainly will in Japan and possibly elsewhere – it may remain forever the policy that dare not speak its name. Such reticence may serve a useful purpose.", "zh": "因此，即便发生了长期货币化——几乎可以确定日本会实施而其他国家也有可能——但可能政策永远不会提到这一词汇。这种沉默或许将有利于实现一个有益的目的。但这也不应令央行和政府们忘记还有这类政策工具是可以用来应对当前的债务暴增问题的。" }

{ "en": "The Great Credit Mistake", "zh": "信用之谬大矣" }

{ "en": "Whether that fall reflected low demand for credit or constrained supply may seem like a technical issue. But the answer holds important implications for policymaking and prospects for economic growth.", "zh": "伦敦—2008年前，大部分发达经济体的私人信用增长都快于GDP。接着，私人信用增长崩了盘。私人信用增长的崩盘反映了需求低迷还是供给受限或许是个技术性问题。但答案对决策和经济增长前景具有重要影响。而官方答案可能是错的。" }

{ "en": "An impaired banking system, it is argued, starves businesses, particularly small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs), of the funds they need to expand. In September 2008, US President George W. Bush wanted to “free up banks to resume the flow of credit to American families and businesses.”", "zh": "流行的观点通常强调供给受限以及纠正这一问题的政策。该观点认为，受损的银行系统让企业困于缺乏扩张所需要的资金，特别是中小企业。2008年9月，美国总统小布什希望“解放银行以使信用重新流向美国家庭和企业。”" }

{ "en": "The stress tests and recapitalizations of US banks in 2009 were subsequently hailed as crucial to the recovery of both the banking system and the economy. By contrast, the European Central Bank’s inadequately tough stress tests in 2010 were widely panned for leaving eurozone banks too weak to provide adequate credit.", "zh": "2009年美国银行的压力测试和资本重组随后被称为是银行系统和经济复苏的关键。相反，2010年欧洲央行压力测试不够严厉被广泛指为导致欧元区银行太疲软而无法提供重组信用的原因。" }

{ "en": "In the United Kingdom, banks have been criticized for not lending the reserves created by quantitative easing to the real economy, leading the Bank of England to introduce its “funding for lending” scheme in 2012. In the eurozone, it is hoped that this year’s asset quality review (AQR) and stress tests will finally dispel concerns about bank solvency and free up credit supply.", "zh": "在英国，人们批评银行没有将量化宽松所创造出来的准备金贷给实体经济，导致英格兰银行在2012年引入“贷款专用资金”（funding for lending）机制。在欧元区，人们希望今年的资产质量检查（asset quality review）和压力测试最终能够打消关于银行偿债能力的疑虑，解放信用供给。" }

{ "en": "Taxpayer-funded bank rescues, higher bank capital requirements, and ultra-easy monetary policy have all been vital to overcome credit supply constraints. But there is strong evidence that once the immediate crisis was over, lack of demand for credit played a far larger role than restricted supply in impeding economic growth.", "zh": "“信用动荡”——特别是贸易融资信用——毫无疑问是金融危机导致实体经济衰退的一个关键因素。纳税人出资的银行援助政策、更高的银行资本要求以及极端宽松的货币政策都是克服信用供给受限的关键。但充分的证据表明，一旦迫在眉睫的危机过去，信用需求不足对阻碍经济增长的作用就会远远超过供给受限。" }

{ "en": "That argument is persuasively made by Atif Mian and Amir Sufi in House of Debt, an important new book that analyzes US data on a county-by-county basis. Mian and Sufi show that the recession was caused by a collapse of household consumption, and that consumption fell most in those counties where pre-crisis borrowing and post-crisis real-estate prices left households facing the largest relative losses in net wealth.", "zh": "这一令人信服的观点由阿提夫·米安（Atif Mian）和埃米尔·苏菲（Amir Sufi）在《债务屋》（House of Debt）中提出。这部重要的新书逐县地分析了美国的数据。米安和苏菲向我们表明，衰退由家庭消费崩溃引起，而家庭消费下降大部分发生在危机前的借债和危机后的房地产价格导致家庭面临的净财富相对损失最大的县。" }

{ "en": "For SMEs, a shortage of customers, not a shortage of credit, constrained borrowing, employment, and output. And the customers were absent because the pre-crisis credit boom had left them over-leveraged.", "zh": "地方企业削减人工最猛的也是这些县。对中小企业来说，缺少客户，而不是缺少信用，制约了它的借贷、雇用和产出状况。而之所以缺少客户，是因为危机前信用繁荣导致他们过度借贷。" }

{ "en": "In the UK, many business surveys from 2009-2012 told the same story. Poor customer demand was ranked well ahead of credit availability as a constraint on growth.", "zh": "在英国，2009—2012年的多项商业调查也给出了同样的结论。客户需求萎靡在制约增长方面的作用远甚于信用易得性。" }

{ "en": "Economic growth can indeed continue to be severely depressed by a debt overhang even when credit supply is unrestricted and cheap. Many Japanese companies were left overleveraged by the boom and bust in credit and real estate in the 1980s and early 1990s.", "zh": "即使在信用供给不再受限并且十分低廉的情况下，经济增长也确实有可能继续陷于深度萧条。20世纪80年代和90年代初，许多日本公司因为信用和房地产业的繁荣和萧条而陷于举债过度的境况。到20世纪90年代末，日本银行系统以几乎为零的利率向公司提供贷款。但是，企业并未借钱投资，反而削减投资来偿债，因而助长了二十年的停滞和通缩。" }

{ "en": "Since 2011, the ECB’s analysis of weak eurozone growth has stressed the negative impact of an impaired and fragmented financial system, with high sovereign-bond yields and funding costs for banks resulting in prohibitive lending terms in the peripheral countries. Major progress in fixing these problems has already been achieved.", "zh": "2011年以来，欧洲央行对欧元区增长萎靡的分析强调受损且分散的金融系统的消极影响，以及主权债务收益率高企和银行资金成本导致外围国贷款条件过于苛刻。纠正这些问题的主要进展已经实现了。" }

{ "en": "Nonetheless, the rate of decline in private-sector loans has accelerated over the last year – from -0.6% to -2% – and low demand is acknowledged to be the main driver of depressed credit growth. Simultaneous private deleveraging and fiscal consolidation are restricting eurozone growth far more than remaining restrictions on credit supply.", "zh": "欧洲央行的最新《月报》（Monthly Bulletin）肯定了这一点，指出多重指标表明信用易得性和价格都在改善。尽管如此，私人部门贷款收缩速度在去年仍出现了加快——从-0.6%变为-2%——并且寻求低迷已被认定为信用增长受阻的主要原因。私人去杠杆化和财政整合的同时进行对欧元区增长的限制远过于信用供给持续受限。" }

{ "en": "Despite the ECB’s own evidence, however, the policy focus remains on fixing the credit-supply problem, through the AQR and stress tests, and through the ECB’s own version of a funding for lending scheme, announced on June 5. That reflects a recurring tendency in official policy debates, particularly in the eurozone, to concentrate on fixable problems to the exclusion of more difficult issues.", "zh": "但是，尽管欧洲央行提出了证据，但政策焦点仍集中在通过资产质量检查和压力测试以及通过欧洲央行自身的贷款专用资金机制（6月5日宣布）来纠正信用供给问题上。这表明官方政策争论（特别是欧元区内）再度集中于可解决的问题而不去顾及更加困难的问题。" }

{ "en": "Moreover, even when public rescue costs are inevitable, they are typically small change compared to the economic harm wrought by the financial crisis and post-crisis recession. By contrast, a large debt overhang may be intractable unless policy orthodoxies are challenged.", "zh": "在危机后修补受损银行系统至关重要并且可以实现。此外，虽然公共援助成本难以避免，但与金融危机和危机后衰退所带来的经济伤害相比，它们往往只是次要变化。相反，大量债务积压非常棘手，除非挑战政策正统。" }

{ "en": "Japan offset private deleveraging in the 1990s by running massive public deficits. The US has pulled out of recession faster than the eurozone, not only – or even primarily – because it fixed its banking system faster, but because it pursued more stimulative fiscal policies.", "zh": "20世纪90年代，日本用大规模公共赤字抵消私人去杠杆化。美国之所以比欧元区更快地摆脱衰退，不仅是因为——甚至并非主要因为——它更快地修补了银行系统，也是因为它采取了更具刺激性的财政政策。" }

{ "en": "But fiscal stimulus is constrained within the eurozone, where member countries no longer issue their own currency and “sovereign” debt therefore carries a default risk. Aggressive monetary expansion through quantitative easing is also far more complicated and politically contentious in a currency area with no federal debt for the central bank to buy.", "zh": "但财政刺激却在欧元区受到了限制，欧元区成员国不再发行本国货币，因此“主权”债务有了违约风险。通过量化宽松实现的激进的货币扩张在欧元区也更加复杂、更具政治正义性，因为作为货币区的欧元区不存在可供中央银行购买的联邦债务。要摆脱困境，实现复苏，欧元区就需要更加集中化，拥有一些共同财政收入、支出和债务。" }

{ "en": "But the starting point for debate must be realism about the nature and severity of the problems facing the eurozone. If eurozone policy assumes that fixing the banks will fix the economy, the next ten years in Europe could look like the 1990s in Japan.", "zh": "当然，这一情景意味着非常艰难的政治抉择。但争论起点必须是现实地认清欧元区所面临的问题的性质和严重程度。如果欧元区政策认为解决了银行问题就能解决经济问题，那么欧洲的未来十年将和日本的20世纪90年代一样。" }

{ "en": "A Daughter of Dictatorship and Democracy", "zh": "独裁与民主的女儿" }

{ "en": "SEOUL – It is something of a cliché question in South Korea nowadays: Who would be the country’s next president if the election were held tomorrow, rather than in December 2012?", "zh": "首尔——如果选举提前到明天，而不是2012年12月进行，谁将成为下一任国家总统已经成为韩国老生常谈的话题。" }