Claim: The North Sea Flood of 2007, which occurred as a result of Hurricane Noel, caused minor damage when the storm surge came in far under forecast.
Evidence: Cyclone Tilo (also known as Cyclone Andrea in Norway) was a European windstorm which affected northern and western Europe in early November 2007. Combining with the remnants of Hurricane Noel, Tilo's storm surge led to the North Sea flood of 2007, affecting the coastlines of the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Germany, Denmark, Norway and Belgium, starting on the night of 8–9 November 2007. The flood and waves were expected to overwhelm sea defences and cause extensive flooding; in particular, the coasts of Norfolk and Kent. However, in the event, the storm surge was 20 centimetres (7.9 in) less than forecast, and damage was relatively minor.