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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FX2qIsGGQnxfb1dC8Rv6
|
will-taylor-swift-release-a-new-alb-96b88624db6a
|
Will Taylor Swift release a new album in the second half of 2024?
| null | 1,706,581,330,206
| 1,735,626,600,000
| 1,735,665,538,077
|
NO
| 0.016857
| 9,633.333893
|
Entertainment
|
Music & Audio
|
6wg3vlrnmu
|
will-jake-paul-win-a-boxing-match-a--cash
|
Will Jake Paul win a boxing match against Mike Tyson by the end of 2025?
| null | 1,729,692,988,832
| 1,731,875,122,830
| 1,731,938,494,765
|
YES
| 0.996404
| 4,280.253782
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
iJxmIrDNMBJBqDDzEMw6
|
will-538-correctly-predict-the-winn
|
Will 538 correctly predict the winner of the 2024 presidential election?
| null | 1,686,002,152,483
| 1,730,947,034,549
| 1,730,947,034,549
|
NO
| 0.025416
| 3,702.172232
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
tn0w9skib1
|
will-there-be-a-major-strike-at-eas-mclujjllm1
|
Will there be a major strike at east coast USA ports lasting at least three weeks in 2024?
| null | 1,727,218,253,463
| 1,728,048,243,037
| 1,728,048,243,037
|
NO
| 0.02
| 10,950.036157
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
V3IS2OrKxwdYQhgm3zf1
|
will-hakeem-jeffries-be-elected-spe
|
Will Hakeem Jeffries be elected Speaker of the House next year (by January 25th, 2025)?
| null | 1,705,883,452,520
| 1,731,527,590,650
| 1,731,527,590,650
|
NO
| 0.129829
| 365
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
1p91gnmil9
|
will-richard-ngo-still-be-working-a
|
Will Richard Ngo still be working at OpenAI in 2025?
| null | 1,722,927,358,572
| 1,731,557,277,938
| 1,731,557,277,938
|
NO
| 0.014837
| 7,927.058633
|
Technology
|
Tech Industry & Business
|
zbbc6ylmhm
|
will-fox-news-call-the-2024-electio
|
Will Fox News call the 2024 election on election night?
| null | 1,723,797,017,744
| 1,730,875,939,925
| 1,730,875,939,925
|
YES
| 0.989244
| 26,482.572168
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
8eQ4u3nIMt9XqcnDNlZL
|
will-i-register-on-manifoldlove-in
|
Will I register on manifold.love in 2024?
| null | 1,704,178,600,217
| 1,735,671,540,000
| 1,735,678,259,137
|
NO
| 0.040262
| 458.095658
|
Technology
|
Internet & Digital Services
|
VIJNOO522N5m7bjHHlyy
|
-2024-ncaaf-will-either-michigan-or
|
🏈 2024 NCAAF: Will either Michigan or Washington appear in the next National Championship game?
| null | 1,704,864,893,039
| 1,733,873,494,843
| 1,733,873,494,843
|
NO
| 0.01
| 2,395.335108
|
Sports
|
College Sports
|
yte4ig6erd
|
will-i-hear-kamala-harris-say-drill
|
Will I hear Kamala Harris say "drill baby drill" unironically at some point before election day?
| null | 1,724,873,194,451
| 1,730,805,550,706
| 1,730,805,550,706
|
NO
| 0.010004
| 898
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
iiialwbrn2
|
will-donald-trump-flip-a-state
|
Will Donald Trump flip a state?
| null | 1,728,249,333,186
| 1,730,782,740,000
| 1,730,898,011,867
|
YES
| 0.85
| 12,321.805832
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
fnupjwbc6n
|
will-hazel-upload-again-on-her-main
|
Will hazel upload again on her main channel before the end of the year?
| null | 1,722,926,198,758
| 1,727,809,608,669
| 1,727,809,608,669
|
YES
| 0.92
| 2,401
|
Entertainment
|
Celebrity & Pop Culture
|
lvz6iOofXKFkA7qGxJmh
|
will-shelley-moore-capito-endorse-m
|
Will Shelley Moore Capito endorse Mike Pence?
| null | 1,685,735,327,202
| 1,731,128,340,000
| 1,731,875,010,485
|
NO
| 0.00767
| 2,643.976083
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
aah2qhc0d2
|
will-israel-launch-an-attack-on-ira
|
Will Israel launch an attack on Iranian soil before the end of October 2024?
| null | 1,729,498,802,025
| 1,729,905,865,245
| 1,729,905,865,245
|
YES
| 0.99
| 12,822.682905
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
wbqg81bf1w
|
trump-vote-share-in-butler-county-p
|
Trump vote share in Butler County, PA >= 70%?
| null | 1,728,517,799,298
| 1,731,092,665,209
| 1,731,092,665,209
|
NO
| 0.100095
| 2,100
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
JSdVEejrLehONfH5kIFp
|
will-openai-fundstartbuy-an-ai-chip
|
Will OpenAI fund/start/buy an AI Chip company (semiconductors) in 2024?
| null | 1,703,616,617,825
| 1,735,681,316,900
| 1,735,681,322,917
|
NO
| 0.039679
| 32,985.836357
|
Technology
|
Tech Industry & Business
|
ARAhd9IpNU
|
florida-will-kamala-harris-win-the
|
Florida | Will Kamala Harris win the state of Florida in the 2024 presidential election?
| null | 1,730,574,747,977
| 1,730,872,740,000
| 1,730,970,905,327
|
NO
| 0.022378
| 840
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
LI9At9nhLl
|
willw-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-dC5EE890L5
|
WillW the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Nov 7 than it closed on Nov 6?
| null | 1,730,927,098,450
| 1,731,013,316,314
| 1,731,013,316,314
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,088.381906
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
JMPvnWCjrMyHyuKVAjq9
|
will-the-highest-grossing-movie-of
|
Will the highest grossing movie (worldwide) of 2024 be rated pg-13 by the MPAA?
| null | 1,686,000,493,729
| 1,735,665,199,596
| 1,735,665,199,596
|
NO
| 0.01
| 606.053707
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
a37wijux9n
|
will-leyline-of-resonance-be-banned
|
Will Leyline of Resonance be banned in any official constructed MTG format by December 31st, 2024?
| null | 1,726,591,933,766
| 1,729,616,287,687
| 1,729,616,287,687
|
YES
| 0.99
| 3,709.908412
|
Entertainment
|
Gaming
|
pFH25WfpIObivtRor29r
|
9-some-of-the-hype-and-herd-mentali
|
9) Some of the hype and herd mentality behavior that shifted from crypto to AI in 2023 will shift back to crypto in 2024
| null | 1,703,511,673,629
| 1,734,453,664,214
| 1,734,453,664,214
|
NO
| 0.01
| 9,772.319962
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
Inu2gyy86R
|
will-trump-post-stop-the-count-in-t
|
Will Trump post “Stop the Count” in the days following the election?
| null | 1,730,746,703,750
| 1,731,225,540,000
| 1,731,277,795,487
|
NO
| 0.01
| 27,531.288538
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
qSu7t1XoQRphy70l4sc0
|
has-eigil-recieved-a-termiation-of
|
Has Eigil recieved a termiation of his assignment by newyears 24
| null | 1,718,231,121,956
| 1,734,443,157,694
| 1,734,443,157,694
|
YES
| 0.47641
| 5
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
DlCVBJZA5OUz0uN40sCc
|
do-lawmakers-still-make-laws
|
Do lawmakers still make laws? 🏛️👩⚖️👨⚖️
| null | 1,703,823,506,623
| 1,734,208,206,539
| 1,734,208,206,539
|
YES
| 0.972526
| 6,102.384183
|
Politics
|
Government Structure
|
XdYULuBu8ygCTPhQIi6c
|
will-trump-choose-marjorie-taylor-g
|
Will Trump choose Marjorie Taylor Green as a running mate in for the 2024 presidential election?
| null | 1,705,321,807,327
| 1,730,576,371,774
| 1,730,576,371,774
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,430.380595
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
4l535of0dj
|
will-trump-win-michigan-in-the-2024--cash
|
Will Trump win Michigan in the 2024 Presidential Election?
| null | 1,727,335,224,801
| 1,731,050,569,318
| 1,731,050,569,318
|
YES
| 0.9901
| 8,180.623811
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
wvt2bwYrWGX1xB8YRGzX
|
will-aapl-launch-its-own-modem-in-t
|
Will AAPL launch its own modem in the 2024 iPhone?
| null | 1,690,910,983,915
| 1,728,368,811,318
| 1,728,368,811,318
|
NO
| 0.11
| 1,036.765962
|
Technology
|
Mobile & Consumer Electronics
|
ZAalhnJj93DDs1ij3TD1
|
will-the-top-chatbot-in-2025-think
|
Will the top chatbot in 2025 "think" before responding to a difficult prompt?
| null | 1,702,155,731,815
| 1,726,719,433,310
| 1,726,719,433,310
|
YES
| 0.9
| 7,112.082996
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
4z6ap6NbFZeJi1Xc3rrP
|
will-jaylen-brown-demand-a-trade-be
|
Will Jaylen Brown demand a trade before the 2023-2024 trade deadline?
| null | 1,698,285,891,179
| 1,707,541,140,000
| 1,734,208,133,527
|
NO
| 0.092471
| 110
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
83qt5j1yyf
|
will-kamala-lead-trump-in-both-538
|
Will Kamala lead Trump in both 538 and Nate Silver's forecasts on any day before Sunday, September 22nd?
| null | 1,726,347,283,422
| 1,726,927,706,788
| 1,726,927,706,788
|
YES
| 0.99
| 14,449.299328
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
kPDxFAh31lEpJELe1cXg
|
in-the-next-6-months-will-it-be-pub
|
In the next 6 months, will it be publicly confirmed that Ilya Sutskever and Jan Leike are working on a project together?
| null | 1,715,755,590,619
| 1,731,657,540,000
| 1,731,670,120,507
|
NO
| 0.01
| 22,064.76619
|
Technology
|
Tech Industry & Business
|
SLtu5NqSuc
|
will-the-dallas-cowboys-even-make-t--cash
|
Will the Dallas Cowboys even make the playoffs in the 2024/25 season?
| null | 1,729,873,119,466
| 1,734,915,647,142
| 1,735,278,175,793
|
NO
| 0.01
| 416.021399
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
RUabTM4FfThaIog7UjJ6
|
will-sota-on-math-in-sep-2024-utili
|
Will SOTA on MATH in Sep 2024 utilize a hard-coded search/amplification procedure?
| null | 1,664,378,957,758
| 1,727,755,140,000
| 1,727,821,057,418
|
NO
| 0.42
| 4,362.784921
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
8pXRC6vbhwRfuPxltKaj
|
will-colorado-have-abortion-as-a-re
|
Will Colorado have abortion as a referendum question in 2024?
| null | 1,701,702,348,507
| 1,730,825,880,000
| 1,731,185,717,484
|
YES
| 0.977482
| 1,087.503991
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
zpy5QR2PuL
|
profitable-bitcoin-coinflip-2-ev
|
Profitable Bitcoin Coinflip 2 [EV+]
| null | 1,731,153,053,129
| 1,731,301,140,000
| 1,731,306,975,288
|
NO
| 0.499805
| 8
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
mGG3372iClP5jzhA5i8y
|
will-an-ai-doctor-replace-the-role-9e864be17634
|
Will an AI doctor replace the role of a human doctor in a first world country before the end of 2024?
| null | 1,690,450,778,958
| 1,735,651,740,000
| 1,735,677,388,367
|
NO
| 0.139441
| 581.097324
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
xl4yrxopfy
|
-2024-ncaaf-will-florida-defeat-mis
|
🏈 2024 NCAAF: Will Florida defeat Mississippi State?
| null | 1,726,919,463,223
| 1,726,947,093,054
| 1,726,947,093,054
|
YES
| 0.99
| 9,135.38554
|
Sports
|
Team Sports
|
UNy6qAOAAh
|
-2024-ncaaf-will-florida-defeat-lsu
|
🏈 2024 NCAAF: Will Florida defeat LSU?
| null | 1,731,690,108,657
| 1,731,803,145,012
| 1,731,803,145,012
|
YES
| 0.99
| 9,230.309154
|
Sports
|
Team Sports
|
x6y4waUpukvn1pqHtISN
|
will-tammy-baldwin-win-reelection-i
|
Will Tammy Baldwin win re-election in the 2024 US senate race in Wisconsin?
| null | 1,680,634,364,278
| 1,731,037,067,552
| 1,731,037,067,552
|
YES
| 0.97855
| 964
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
lgy7wtu9sz
|
will-llama-32-be-released-by-octobe
|
Will Meta release any same-size LLaMa that performs better at MMLU before October 14th 2024?
| null | 1,722,750,607,947
| 1,728,953,914,577
| 1,728,953,914,577
|
NO
| 0.02
| 68,011.047496
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
ybyp1sxjkl
|
will-nebraska-become-a-winnertakesa
|
Will Nebraska become a winner-takes-all state before the 2024 US election?
| null | 1,727,100,016,639
| 1,730,811,540,000
| 1,730,837,204,246
|
NO
| 0.01079
| 1,090
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
b1gcemzj04
|
will-jake-paul-win-a-boxing-match-a
|
Will Jake Paul win a boxing match against Mike Tyson by the end of 2025?
| null | 1,729,692,824,361
| 1,731,875,122,830
| 1,731,875,122,830
|
YES
| 0.99625
| 57,977.385763
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
ybxdpmd9hr
|
will-a-mana-market-resolve-differen
|
Will a Mana market resolve differently from its Sweep market in 2024?
| null | 1,729,649,719,080
| 1,735,590,860,386
| 1,735,590,860,386
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,251.524894
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
YEm7vYpaOXiNNxq3OUvk
|
will-any-new-legislation-be-introdu
|
Will any new legislation be introduced as a result of the Key Bridge collapse?
| null | 1,711,444,201,763
| 1,734,505,609,907
| 1,734,505,609,907
|
YES
| 0.99
| 12,625.946322
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
6Ku2DK6ExlaRk5NHgUen
|
will-china-russia-andor-the-us-deto
|
Will China, Russia, and/or the US detonate a nuclear device in their respective territories before 1 October 2024?
| null | 1,701,309,581,756
| 1,727,841,540,000
| 1,727,865,856,013
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,602.04581
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
aPAhAKhpPClTzOE03h7E
|
will-irisigb-stop-posting-on-x-for
|
Will iris_igb stop posting on x for a span of at least 3 months by end of 2024
| null | 1,694,498,251,442
| 1,733,502,491,933
| 1,733,502,491,933
|
YES
| 0.744443
| 70
|
Entertainment
|
Celebrity & Pop Culture
|
iv2zu8pen2
|
will-there-be-any-break-between-one-8txrq9t9by
|
Will there be any break between One Piece chapters 1129 and 1130?
| null | 1,727,813,857,030
| 1,728,413,340,678
| 1,728,413,344,705
|
NO
| 0.02
| 6,750
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
hew43xf6gu
|
will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-3eaj4xv0u9
|
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Sept 30 than it closed on Sept 13---5625.94?
| null | 1,726,258,265,116
| 1,726,862,650,227
| 1,726,862,650,227
|
YES
| 0.61
| 25
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
3tsOfcaXVSoQt0iweyJ7
|
will-incremental-compilation-make-i
|
Will incremental compilation make it into Zig before July 2024?
| null | 1,702,745,190,173
| 1,719,784,740,000
| 1,735,385,477,159
|
NO
| 0.1
| 1,916.210612
|
Technology
|
Computing & Software
|
Z9Vhc0L7hohKYRtugnYU
|
will-joker-2-have-a-twist-revealing
|
Will Joker 2 have a twist revealing Lady Gaga's character was just in Joker's head?
| null | 1,712,724,559,331
| 1,728,100,740,000
| 1,728,838,318,819
|
NO
| 0.02
| 13,769.435113
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
fS5Y0XZiYQZY8OGDW6lk
|
will-javier-milei-still-be-presiden
|
Will Javier Milei still be president of Argentina one year after assuming the country's presidency on 10/12/2024?
| null | 1,703,620,782,513
| 1,729,035,245,364
| 1,729,035,245,364
|
YES
| 0.99
| 11,670.945377
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
tbpBkariGnsF14JmFpit
|
will-mistral-ai-be-acquired-by-sept
|
Will Mistral AI be acquired by September 1st 2024?
| null | 1,709,077,769,494
| 1,725,260,340,000
| 1,726,999,803,353
|
NO
| 0.01
| 2,642.202151
|
Technology
|
Tech Industry & Business
|
tYRzxaxhDLPIiQzrYdmo
|
will-a-democrat-win-the-2024-presid-9f6672cd9c02
|
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Utah?
| null | 1,670,815,614,072
| 1,731,293,241,937
| 1,731,293,241,937
|
NO
| 0.01
| 4,688.28736
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
lqnhf61h4g
|
will-donald-trump-not-not-not-not-n
|
Will Donald Trump not not not not not not not not not not lose the election?
| null | 1,728,271,925,300
| 1,733,676,031,621
| 1,733,676,031,621
|
NO
| 0.554954
| 34.093475
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
N1vTst7aLqcWPJBg2Onk
|
will-trump-pay-any-money-for-defami
|
Will Trump pay any money for defaming columnist E. Jean Carroll before the US Presidential Elections 2024?
| null | 1,706,344,887,029
| 1,730,879,940,000
| 1,730,881,784,896
|
NO
| 0.072657
| 3,275.270958
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
LKPTt18Jyxo9uvDkyfQn
|
will-the-2024-republican-nominee-fo
|
Will the 2024 Republican nominee for President remain the nominee through Election Day?
| null | 1,698,509,705,186
| 1,730,851,055,312
| 1,730,851,055,312
|
YES
| 0.99
| 5,040.830062
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
BtWotE7iHzpPCYOY9JOL
|
nfl-week-7-oct-21-will-the-tampa-ba
|
NFL Week 7 (Oct 21): Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Baltimore Ravens?
| null | 1,715,834,074,900
| 1,729,728,900,000
| 1,729,816,036,614
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,013.065791
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
388y75oklr
|
will-manifold-enable-realmoney-bett
|
Will Manifold enable real-money betting on Congressional races?
| null | 1,725,741,070,467
| 1,727,957,467,920
| 1,727,957,467,920
|
YES
| 0.99
| 33,279.475185
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
ge5bdpwggx
|
will-jd-vance-or-tim-walz-say-the-w-bt0bl46d01
|
Will JD Vance or Tim Walz say the word "racist" during the debate?
| null | 1,727,814,232,848
| 1,727,852,340,000
| 1,728,349,674,343
|
NO
| 0.01
| 14,353.785313
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
t88k5y9plm
|
will-a-vote-to-establish-a-directly
|
Will a vote to establish a directly elected Los Angeles County executive pass in 2024?
| null | 1,720,804,489,875
| 1,731,527,339,466
| 1,731,527,339,466
|
YES
| 0.76899
| 943.357581
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
UYl4ZuaEITKOHTQZgm8O
|
when-the-current-500k-grant-for-man-9aa6ef92353a
|
When the current $500k grant for Manifold For Charity runs out, will the charity program continue?
| null | 1,682,110,594,150
| 1,726,962,316,360
| 1,727,959,085,722
|
YES
| 0.84
| 1,324.701173
|
Finance
|
Corporate Finance
|
ItQRtPhuch
|
will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-s8IUgzCSSC
|
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Dec. 26 than it closed on Dec 24?
| null | 1,735,060,436,678
| 1,735,246,930,470
| 1,735,246,930,470
|
NO
| 0.197731
| 612.885154
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
lUh6s5uP62
|
will-tsla-reach-475-before-8pm-est-UUEPEsu95L
|
Will TSLA reach $475 before 8pm EST on 8/8/2025?
| null | 1,733,504,368,432
| 1,734,464,063,109
| 1,734,464,063,109
|
YES
| 0.982421
| 1,054.049248
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
ibuh5ei4z1
|
will-north-korea-have-an-open-milit
|
Will North Korea have an open military conflict with South Korea that results in at least 1 death before Dec 1st?
| null | 1,725,141,170,668
| 1,733,093,520,000
| 1,733,337,743,029
|
NO
| 0.013587
| 755
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
qUBnbLnMIuElyJPAYaUT
|
will-the-margin-of-victory-in-the-2-51af5a4e6350
|
Will the margin of victory in the 2024 POTUS election in Florida be greater than in 2020 (3.3%)?
| null | 1,707,051,346,669
| 1,730,913,692,135
| 1,730,913,692,135
|
YES
| 0.99
| 2,635.500911
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
lGRdNA9fpvRvl2p9XBG2
|
will-a-democrat-win-the-2024-presid-98486909d387
|
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Iowa?
| null | 1,670,814,669,053
| 1,731,293,757,981
| 1,731,293,757,981
|
NO
| 0.01
| 14,184.682146
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
qdcu14hqb5
|
will-israel-attack-iran-again-withi-bqux4kbxzl
|
Will Israel attack Iran AGAIN within 2 month of being attacked by them?
| null | 1,727,834,784,955
| 1,728,382,752,250
| 1,728,382,752,250
|
YES
| 0.86
| 190
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
4QkctcRT7M52V80LQKuk
|
nfl-week-15-dec-15-2024-will-the-ho
|
NFL Week 15 (Dec 15 2024): Will the Houston Texans (home) beat the Miami Dolphins (away)?
| null | 1,715,834,554,368
| 1,734,458,400,000
| 1,735,276,172,153
|
YES
| 0.989823
| 1,141.613893
|
Sports
|
Team Sports
|
pmnawcgrny
|
will-the-indictment-against-eric-ad
|
Will the indictment against Eric Adams be unsealed before the end of Friday the 27th?
| null | 1,727,313,318,429
| 1,727,455,276,184
| 1,727,455,276,184
|
YES
| 0.99
| 899.928905
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
C3E221NfI4k7FAaAAlrE
|
tp1-average-airfare-wont-rise-or-fa
|
TP1: Average airfare won’t rise or fall more than 5% (70% conf.)
| null | 1,706,381,749,271
| 1,735,051,320,000
| 1,735,133,134,689
|
YES
| 0.41
| 52.585399
|
Finance
|
Economic Indicators
|
91iyjrhs6z
|
short-fuze-will-openai-release-stra-gal8881uzv
|
[short fuze] Will OpenAI release strawberry on ChatGPT today (Sep. 12)?
| null | 1,726,151,150,597
| 1,726,264,740,000
| 1,727,182,673,039
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,473.96035
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
4zh5yCqmvX3bLk9mklcw
|
will-youtuber-anyaustin-have-at-lea
|
Will YouTuber any_austin have at least 370k subscribers before 2025?
| null | 1,695,530,253,047
| 1,728,063,502,680
| 1,728,063,502,680
|
YES
| 0.9
| 434.915988
|
Entertainment
|
Celebrity & Pop Culture
|
5W5RXxESNo3D0PBDEEIY
|
will-a-convicted-felon-be-elected-p
|
Will a convicted felon be elected president before 2073?
| null | 1,704,460,193,318
| 1,731,204,195,682
| 1,731,204,195,682
|
YES
| 0.99
| 716.794988
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
0JmTjTqNvp9aFiUoUzGk
|
will-the-winner-of-florida-in-the-2
|
Will the winner of Florida in the 2024 POTUS election win with a majority in the state?
| null | 1,690,181,530,118
| 1,730,857,412,865
| 1,730,857,412,865
|
YES
| 0.950994
| 836.929041
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
biaKFKeHsUs7qzBy1O3R
|
will-the-cryptocurrency-markets-tot
|
Will the cryptocurrency market's total market capitalization set a new all-time high within the next 10 years?
| null | 1,668,755,555,594
| 1,734,071,832,601
| 1,734,071,832,601
|
YES
| 0.989041
| 14,720.093184
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
4bzljje9qd
|
will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-5kv5aq4vo0
|
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Sept 26 than it closed on sept 25?
| null | 1,727,294,660,478
| 1,727,380,923,193
| 1,727,380,923,193
|
YES
| 0.99
| 910.945754
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
2qf99iti0c
|
will-bloomberg-launch-a-page-contai
|
Will Bloomberg launch a page containing Manifold data?
| null | 1,724,483,386,368
| 1,730,752,823,358
| 1,730,752,823,358
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,056.285259
|
Technology
|
Internet & Digital Services
|
YGJEhT9VVDdnI6PVW5HT
|
will-the-california-prohibit-state
|
Will the "California Prohibit State Limitations on Local Rent Control" Ballot Initiative be Approved on November 5 2024
| null | 1,707,060,921,003
| 1,730,869,140,000
| 1,730,896,263,803
|
NO
| 0.172981
| 439.814269
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
V2zdLhHaMOxM2PLN34ge
|
nfl-week-17-dec-29-2024-will-the-bu
|
NFL Week 17 (Dec 29 2024): Will the Buffalo Bills (home) beat the New York Jets (away)?
| null | 1,715,834,669,850
| 1,735,668,000,000
| 1,735,669,076,100
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,000.333479
|
Sports
|
Team Sports
|
lrk91kn65h
|
will-trump-win-arizona-and-michigan
|
Will Trump win Arizona AND Michigan?
| null | 1,728,932,987,371
| 1,731,560,340,000
| 1,731,560,450,575
|
YES
| 0.989921
| 1,541.287017
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
nLwiScRZuhKKijnQc4cU
|
will-rfk-influence-the-presidential
|
Will RFK get at least 10 million popular votes in the 2024 Presidential Election?
| null | 1,710,602,641,093
| 1,730,748,900,000
| 1,735,407,479,830
|
NO
| 0.033861
| 5,091.60751
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
i0tqp0dabd
|
will-spacex-land-a-super-heavy-boos--cash
|
Will SpaceX land/catch a Super Heavy booster, as part of a space-bound Starship flight, in 2024?
| null | 1,728,151,938,042
| 1,728,823,077,830
| 1,729,455,525,653
|
YES
| 0.85
| 274.471112
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
kFcfuvuNuxpOfGT8io43
|
will-the-phaseout-of-coal-from-the
|
Will the phaseout of Coal from the UK power grid be completed as planned in September 2024?
| null | 1,710,011,419,097
| 1,727,767,013,873
| 1,727,767,013,873
|
YES
| 0.97
| 6,803.439107
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
t5UHNC3750wBROpoQYEp
|
will-shanks-and-luffy-meet-again-in
|
Will Shanks and Luffy meet again in person before the end of 2024?
| null | 1,709,668,631,706
| 1,735,671,591,393
| 1,735,671,591,393
|
NO
| 0.023503
| 1,260.999974
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
wd6jpcu0om
|
san-francisco-proposition-a-passes
|
San Francisco Proposition A Passes: School Facilities Bond 2024-11
| null | 1,728,435,459,758
| 1,731,571,140,000
| 1,731,575,119,842
|
YES
| 0.986505
| 755
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
846vucfw5s
|
will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-izvg4vcjv9
|
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Oct 9 than it closed on Oct 8?
| null | 1,728,417,896,359
| 1,728,504,130,981
| 1,728,504,130,981
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,146.322482
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
g61fsj6a8k
|
will-trump-win-arizona-and-north-ca
|
Will Trump win Arizona AND North Carolina?
| null | 1,729,091,757,344
| 1,731,560,340,000
| 1,731,560,458,782
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,001.141522
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
6ztqgmgwxv
|
will-i-have-a-draft-of-the-next-man
|
Will I have a draft of the next Manifold newsletter by noon?
| null | 1,729,584,898,687
| 1,729,623,600,000
| 1,729,623,610,619
|
NO
| 0.68
| 491.588527
|
Technology
|
Internet & Digital Services
|
Sty9sslCEI
|
will-olaf-scholz-win-the-vote-of-co
|
Will Olaf Scholz win the vote of confidence?
| null | 1,733,716,497,956
| 1,734,710,797,505
| 1,734,710,797,505
|
NO
| 0.01334
| 760
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
aS8U3TrXjd7fW2KXOfnq
|
will-the-next-australian-federal-el-54cefcaca36b
|
Will the next Australian federal election happen in 2024?
| null | 1,685,950,005,508
| 1,735,636,865,289
| 1,735,636,865,289
|
NO
| 0.010003
| 2,005.510488
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
klfqigamgd
|
will-joe-biden-still-be-alive-on-no
|
Will Joe Biden still be alive on November 1st, 2024?
| null | 1,727,534,434,092
| 1,730,440,740,000
| 1,730,474,689,465
|
YES
| 0.99
| 938.243911
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
sUqd8AIgEc
|
will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-SgLPQyLLzL
|
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Oct 30 than it closed on Oct 29?
| null | 1,730,232,337,090
| 1,730,318,553,091
| 1,730,318,553,091
|
NO
| 0.053806
| 530.817505
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
JDyjFmIQr1yRqndo5ogL
|
will-nvidia-have-more-than-75-of-th
|
Will NVIDIA have more than 75% of the Data center market share by revenue in 2024?
| null | 1,702,915,877,742
| 1,734,271,661,436
| 1,734,271,661,436
|
YES
| 0.874133
| 2,794.162403
|
Technology
|
Tech Industry & Business
|
mpbr1o2h02
|
-shortfuse-1-in-3-odds-7p9jno7a18
|
🧨 Short-fuse 1 in 3 odds
| null | 1,726,855,330,233
| 1,726,869,729,738
| 1,726,869,815,789
|
YES
| null | 1,919.116114
|
Sports
|
Sports Culture & Recreation
|
PeHlYXP12QTTFpWjn235
|
if-donald-trump-is-the-2024-nominee
|
If Donald Trump is the 2024 nominee, will he win the presidential election?
| null | 1,674,459,940,037
| 1,730,926,518,402
| 1,730,926,518,402
|
YES
| 0.9866
| 12,964.341374
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
DJOSvpDykIfb2AUnFBeB
|
2024-formula-1-season-will-any-race
|
[2024 Formula 1 Season] Will any race be canceled or switched before the start of its respective race weekend?
| null | 1,691,770,731,648
| 1,733,685,853,938
| 1,733,685,853,938
|
NO
| 0.012154
| 11,106.486026
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
WA8sqABMSw4H3mhFRZr2
|
will-cruises-driverless-robotaxi-se
|
Will Cruise's driverless robotaxi service/technology be sold or abandoned by the end of 2024
| null | 1,698,649,516,418
| 1,733,867,146,588
| 1,733,867,146,588
|
YES
| 0.859541
| 4,743.872361
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
1vm0yc679d
|
will-harris-win-the-popular-vote-in
|
Will Harris win the popular vote in the 2024 Election?
| null | 1,728,991,235,106
| 1,732,753,237,767
| 1,732,753,237,767
|
NO
| 0.01
| 44,138.067157
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
K19YMoUiaJ7FpSXX7Pd3
|
will-ron-desantis-appear-on-the-joe
|
Will Ron DeSantis appear on The Joe Rogan Experience podcast before the 2024 US elections?
| null | 1,669,115,984,040
| 1,731,328,909,015
| 1,731,328,909,015
|
NO
| 0.01
| 12,641.743024
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
mA90DR34Y0lwFgBrw4L2
|
will-mitch-mcconnell-stop-being-sen-d1c5e8a93cb4
|
Will Mitch McConnell stop being Senate Republican Leader before the end of 2027?
| null | 1,704,243,463,487
| 1,731,528,753,594
| 1,731,528,753,594
|
YES
| 0.981557
| 4,895.342032
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
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