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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
p3aXpkCPch0szBfO8erz
|
will-california-ai-bill-sb1047-be-p
|
Will California AI bill (SB-1047) be signed into law with the "kill switch" requirement?
| null | 1,718,232,371,480
| 1,727,704,317,414
| 1,727,704,317,414
|
NO
| 0.01
| 17,774.492087
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
i354pkrhg5
|
will-a-fourth-film-receive-a-cinema
|
Will a fourth film receive a CinemaScore of D+ or worse in 2024?
| null | 1,728,152,803,258
| 1,735,576,664,765
| 1,735,576,664,765
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,370.399528
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
ygQuuRUzSQ
|
will-bitcoin-hit-100000-before-dec-ZhL2s222Pc
|
Will Bitcoin hit $100,000 before Dec 21?
| null | 1,732,752,897,207
| 1,733,376,049,507
| 1,733,376,049,507
|
YES
| 0.99
| 901.647961
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
amupippqva
|
will-bitcoin-hit-75k-in-2024
|
Bitcoin $75K in 2024?
| null | 1,723,268,904,446
| 1,730,874,175,893
| 1,730,874,175,893
|
YES
| 0.90996
| 40,570.063994
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
8086SGL1J3FXrHNxalkk
|
will-robert-f-kennedy-jr-win-more-t-d0c180c16e22
|
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?
| null | 1,696,034,612,394
| 1,730,899,740,000
| 1,731,437,542,730
|
NO
| 0.012872
| 75,694.625441
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
18HRXo2LWzDqizrj8FEY
|
will-destiny-get-unbanned-from-twit-df967649e5f8
|
Will Destiny get unbanned from Twitch before October 2024?
| null | 1,696,266,955,235
| 1,727,819,940,000
| 1,727,840,219,661
|
NO
| 0
| 115,382.566545
|
Entertainment
|
Celebrity & Pop Culture
|
XnTv9c6pA9bS0mvnxe0N
|
will-a-democrat-win-maines-second-d
|
Will a Democrat win Maine's second district in the 2024 POTUS election?
| null | 1,686,275,078,245
| 1,730,902,668,956
| 1,730,902,668,956
|
NO
| 0.055346
| 5,547.471776
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
2hyZscQldg
|
will-a-game-in-the-world-chess-cham
|
Will a game in the World Chess Championship 2024 have 3 or more blunders?
| null | 1,732,095,941,272
| 1,734,115,655,913
| 1,734,115,655,913
|
NO
| 0.025293
| 638.873498
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
5rofilynsu
|
will-joker-folie-a-deux-gross-more-0ohhdhm2n6
|
Will "Joker: Folie à Deux" gross more during its second weekend than "Morbius"? (>$10,201,332)
| null | 1,728,491,717,584
| 1,729,092,889,986
| 1,729,092,889,986
|
NO
| 0.01
| 3,168.237025
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
8oI6cYgHBN3LmMuVaxoo
|
will-donald-trump-get-222-or-more-e
|
Will Donald Trump get 222 or more electoral votes in the 2024 election?
| null | 1,714,773,260,842
| 1,731,098,929,225
| 1,731,098,929,225
|
YES
| 0.989604
| 7,907.786166
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
euOql9DRdf7UZGj61igC
|
nfl-week-14-dec-8-2024-will-the-mia
|
NFL Week 14 (Dec 8 2024): Will the Miami Dolphins (home) beat the New York Jets (away)?
| null | 1,715,834,507,995
| 1,733,853,600,000
| 1,735,276,258,383
|
YES
| 0.99
| 990.052011
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
pcajphx7wz
|
will-tucker-carlson-interview-donal
|
Will Tucker Carlson interview Donald Trump or JD Vance before November 2024?
| null | 1,723,025,979,311
| 1,729,129,663,132
| 1,729,129,663,132
|
YES
| 0.99
| 10,138.701793
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
38fnzviqe3
|
will-kamala-harris-lose-nc-but-win
|
Will Kamala Harris lose NC but win a different Trump 2020 state?
| null | 1,727,471,363,015
| 1,730,938,353,493
| 1,730,938,353,493
|
NO
| 0.010521
| 12,569.77395
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
xP4sZs0bvQ7YqBwV4rQp
|
will-there-be-more-than-two-differe
|
Will there be more than two different leaders of the WTA rankings (single) in 2024?
| null | 1,710,694,658,132
| 1,734,388,202,110
| 1,734,388,202,110
|
NO
| 0.051065
| 405
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
aNn0cNOVFyqh5yPRyBWI
|
will-a-major-event-occur-that-trigg
|
Will major event occur that triggers the implementation of covid-like US lockdown before US Presidential Election 2024?
| null | 1,704,866,435,212
| 1,730,879,940,000
| 1,730,880,130,043
|
NO
| 0.030517
| 1,914.450125
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
ZvemP4hzI9O3qAU8YVAS
|
nfl-week-16-dec-22-2024-will-the-bu
|
NFL Week 16 (Dec 22 2024): Will the Buffalo Bills (home) beat the New England Patriots (away)?
| null | 1,715,834,607,383
| 1,735,063,200,000
| 1,735,164,143,325
|
YES
| 0.99
| 962.961932
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
Y3WjVnkO1hZupZRQVzOx
|
will-democrats-win-a-majority-in-th-a7def3d60d9c
|
Will Democrats win a majority in the Wisconsin State Assembly in 2024?
| null | 1,691,250,643,601
| 1,733,032,740,000
| 1,733,382,550,703
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,981.157367
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
vE9J4RgGsmEYEJMuD8Fm
|
will-a-republican-win-arizona-in-th
|
Will a Republican win Arizona in the 2024 POTUS election?
| null | 1,686,273,149,326
| 1,731,431,324,098
| 1,731,431,324,098
|
YES
| 0.99
| 3,181.726565
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
iHa5VT8GdZGbFsrAwpit
|
will-democrats-win-more-house-seats
|
Will Democrats win more House seats in Pennsylvania than Republicans in 2024?
| null | 1,713,033,049,431
| 1,731,139,140,000
| 1,731,199,402,865
|
NO
| 0.015859
| 1,377
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
dct0uR5cpP
|
will-the-nikkei-225-close-today-hig
|
Will the Nikkei 225 close today higher than its previous day close?
| null | 1,730,345,558,928
| 1,730,370,148,040
| 1,730,370,148,040
|
NO
| 0.010305
| 8,800
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
f3nfyviz6t
|
metaculus-will-a-israelhamas-confli
|
[Metaculus] Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024?
| null | 1,721,781,558,797
| 1,731,082,691,048
| 1,731,082,691,048
|
NO
| 0.022655
| 16,312.202181
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
ww8ud9fhbr
|
will-elon-musk-donate-at-least-100
|
Will Elon Musk donate at least $100 million to a Republican-aligned PAC or campaign in 2024?
| null | 1,721,106,952,930
| 1,734,397,084,650
| 1,734,397,084,650
|
YES
| 0.853286
| 3,295.456787
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
exgax1xyq2
|
twitter-x-brings-back-public-likes
|
Twitter / X brings public likes back as an option or by default by the end of 2024?
| null | 1,718,349,156,133
| 1,735,688,234,357
| 1,735,688,234,357
|
NO
| 0.020975
| 586.43036
|
Technology
|
Internet & Digital Services
|
PpAOhRNQ2l
|
will-congressional-hearings-on-uaps
|
Will congressional hearings on UAPs and disclosure occur in November 2024?
| null | 1,730,201,804,604
| 1,732,143,313,804
| 1,732,143,313,804
|
YES
| 0.908626
| 2,552.096084
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
PaZ8087ZprL8N6XuQtKX
|
if-the-republican-nominee-wins-mich
|
If the Republican nominee wins Michigan, will they win the presidency (2024)?
| null | 1,690,426,307,398
| 1,730,927,740,842
| 1,730,927,740,842
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,264.281541
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
Snqxq5nnqiM9BhlTCCmc
|
will-i-take-first-place-in-a-poker
|
Will I take first place in a poker tournament for at least 1000 USD in 2024?
| null | 1,706,853,602,920
| 1,735,642,740,000
| 1,735,654,931,516
|
NO
| 0.180199
| 128.095658
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
RWELhVPPBuOKrX8nHzJX
|
nfl-week-14-dec-8-2024-will-the-kan
|
NFL Week 14 (Dec 8 2024): Will the Kansas City Chiefs (home) beat the Los Angeles Chargers (away)?
| null | 1,715,834,538,834
| 1,733,880,000,000
| 1,733,931,559,970
|
YES
| 0.996117
| 2,378.179058
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
4JNXJvUWOk33ZDAkhEkY
|
by-the-end-of-2024-will-any-new-202
|
By the end of 2024, will any new 2024 seasonal TV anime have hit 1 million people who have listed it on MAL?
| null | 1,709,329,603,286
| 1,735,661,765,111
| 1,735,661,765,111
|
NO
| 0.010003
| 1,325.064086
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
jkROOhDIvVBIwXyBvmBb
|
will-rfk-jr-get-above-5-in-the-2024
|
Will RFK Jr. get above 5% in the 2024 Presidential election?
| null | 1,697,491,827,146
| 1,735,016,340,000
| 1,735,403,888,690
|
NO
| 0.010193
| 28,396.481564
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
4MoiPGdzTODzgmokBwS1
|
will-the-google-trend-border-reach
|
Will the google trend "Border" reach a new peak before the 2024 election?
| null | 1,713,386,872,153
| 1,731,200,680,586
| 1,731,200,680,586
|
NO
| 0.019648
| 1,216.336162
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
w3mruwdih7
|
will-there-be-a-day-of-bad-air-in-s
|
Will there be a day of bad air in SF due to wildfire smoke in 2024?
| null | 1,725,415,542,141
| 1,730,444,340,000
| 1,730,470,041,870
|
NO
| 0.046062
| 446.001647
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
AM1axfn3jAan7o8XYSfW
|
will-zubear-abdi-face-legal-trouble
|
Will Zubear Abdi face legal trouble for sharing explicit photos of Taylor Swift generated by AI?
| null | 1,706,325,404,031
| 1,735,616,743,943
| 1,735,616,743,943
|
NO
| 0.01
| 5,599.039612
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
43c5jhxmkt
|
will-the-nyt-run-a-frontpage-headli
|
Will the NYT run a front-page headline questioning Trump's mental fitness before the election?
| null | 1,723,757,533,832
| 1,730,872,740,000
| 1,730,876,125,327
|
NO
| 0.033406
| 15,434.141493
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
18rpxi4q7o
|
will-apple-remain-the-largest-compa
|
Will Apple remain the largest company through October?
| null | 1,728,750,191,472
| 1,729,876,694,469
| 1,729,876,694,469
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,918.477989
|
Technology
|
Tech Industry & Business
|
xyZDGlri9K6lnn28wmqP
|
will-any-of-the-videos-uploaded-to-e90ed9e70107
|
Will any of the videos uploaded to Joe Rogan's YouTube channel in Nov 2024 surpass 4M views?
| null | 1,707,191,827,138
| 1,733,029,196,395
| 1,733,860,060,384
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,386.453113
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
3W4F3g859vc1CzbQR8wj
|
will-trump-quote-another-confederat
|
Will Trump quote another Confederate before the election?
| null | 1,713,710,422,760
| 1,730,872,740,000
| 1,730,942,937,242
|
NO
| 0.232843
| 985.816933
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
6E96cNuU8C
|
will-kamala-harris-receive-a-greate
|
Will Kamala Harris receive a greater number of mail-in ballot votes than Donald Trump?
| null | 1,730,379,682,115
| 1,732,867,140,000
| 1,735,685,512,933
|
YES
| 0.972275
| 517
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
smJzQxrkKXbLC9fTPtYQ
|
will-xi-jinping-visit-any-country-i
|
Will Xi Jinping visit any country in Africa by the end of 2024?
| null | 1,697,944,894,099
| 1,732,536,331,121
| 1,732,536,331,121
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,311.781974
|
Geopolitics
|
International Relations
|
13ok7f5qqx
|
will-i-have-500-substack-followerss
|
Will I have 500 Substack followers/subscribers (counting both free and paid) by Halloween, 2024?
| null | 1,718,679,681,297
| 1,730,430,000,000
| 1,730,430,490,959
|
NO
| 0.158688
| 159
|
Technology
|
Internet & Digital Services
|
jDqZVlZV8Ac4jTspgV3q
|
will-georgia-stay-blue-in-2024
|
Will Georgia stay blue in 2024
| null | 1,693,666,977,286
| 1,730,869,140,000
| 1,730,879,795,847
|
NO
| 0.09772
| 7,630.21356
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
sQtPI6lQy5
|
set-and-get-my-burpee-goal-at-least-Cc8uOty8gq
|
Set and get my burpee goal at least 3 weeks this month?
| null | 1,733,043,742,049
| 1,735,617,660,000
| 1,735,687,310,420
|
NO
| 0.401865
| 220
|
Sports
|
Sports Culture & Recreation
|
Wg2krR99SDftqNMscrgu
|
will-there-be-concrete-evidence-of-cf22ba08a694
|
Will there be concrete evidence of a Chess GM cheating over the board before then end of 2026?
| null | 1,705,034,981,355
| 1,729,340,793,060
| 1,729,340,793,060
|
YES
| 0.8
| 297.005586
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
u1dmx1xs51
|
will-acro-trip-tv-rate-700-or-highe
|
Will Acro Trip (TV) rate 7.00 or higher on MyAnimeList?
| null | 1,728,050,050,107
| 1,734,526,740,000
| 1,734,527,197,776
|
NO
| 0.0601
| 3,504.555728
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
uit0MGNWsOZQ9IJOYnBY
|
will-gary-gensler-resign-from-his-p
|
Will Gary Gensler resign from his position before 2024 ends?
| null | 1,693,429,485,750
| 1,732,459,189,820
| 1,732,459,189,820
|
YES
| 0.163205
| 4,366.190758
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
QlnXvf6bGyltlzMdZJrg
|
nfl-week-9-nov-3-2024-will-the-new
|
NFL Week 9 (Nov 3 2024): Will the New York Giants (home) beat the Washington Commanders (away)?
| null | 1,715,834,183,502
| 1,730,670,340,915
| 1,730,670,340,915
|
NO
| 0.01
| 894.987437
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
1nz71mcbvo
|
will-musk-and-maduro-schedule-a-fig
|
Will Elon Musk and Nicolás Maduro schedule a fight before the end of 2024?
| null | 1,722,445,909,225
| 1,735,581,427,178
| 1,735,581,427,178
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,745.189332
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
s1nsiqrj1m
|
will-texas-become-a-blue-state-this
|
Will Texas become a blue state this election
| null | 1,721,936,495,572
| 1,730,868,737,893
| 1,730,868,737,893
|
NO
| 0.068258
| 426.405948
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
2TPvfvT9lgl25LpQ1Xhs
|
will-taylor-swift-attend-a-campaign
|
Will Taylor Swift attend a campaign event for Joe Biden in 2024?
| null | 1,709,238,082,773
| 1,730,603,119,872
| 1,730,603,119,872
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,843.428106
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
cc2sLZ6StZ
|
daily-coinflip-UzIIR6qutQ
|
Daily coinflip
| null | 1,734,234,494,482
| 1,734,325,140,000
| 1,734,329,005,276
|
NO
| 0.490494
| 2,564.147941
|
Sports
|
Sports Culture & Recreation
|
dyEkep7YjEOK8FkkJfiP
|
will-i-dump-my-coinbase-shares-in-2
|
Will I dump my Coinbase shares in 2024?
| null | 1,703,040,449,605
| 1,735,625,873,468
| 1,735,625,873,468
|
NO
| 0.188188
| 123.095658
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
44yOeiEbld5hDz0TtE9z
|
nfl-week-8-oct-27-2024-will-the-was
|
NFL Week 8 (Oct 27 2024): Will the Washington Commanders (home) beat the Chicago Bears (away)?
| null | 1,715,834,146,099
| 1,730,078,805,728
| 1,730,078,805,728
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,325.843272
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
b4q0LODuk8gox7ETFj03
|
metaculus-will-the-current-european
|
[Metaculus] Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regul... before October 31, 2024?
| null | 1,699,489,001,175
| 1,730,530,740,000
| 1,730,666,644,541
|
NO
| 0.011318
| 1,386.999624
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
8rro6jyqeu
|
will-starship-or-its-super-heavy-bo
|
Will Starship or its Super Heavy booster explode at its 5th test flight?
| null | 1,728,422,370,871
| 1,728,829,537,892
| 1,728,829,537,892
|
YES
| 0.37
| 413.608985
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
wzz8e4gi5r
|
will-israeli-troops-enter-the-count-2zi8xd9mif
|
Will Israeli troops enter the country of Lebanon before the end of Halloween?
| null | 1,720,311,345,750
| 1,727,758,286,897
| 1,727,758,286,897
|
YES
| 0.99
| 17,851.468268
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
Fu65ybnYsf2dtY8dlTLp
|
will-the-panama-canal-be-closed-for
|
Will the Panama Canal be closed for at least 24 hours in 2024 due to a man-made disaster?
| null | 1,712,762,919,633
| 1,735,680,015,763
| 1,735,680,015,763
|
NO
| 0.040534
| 2,727
|
Geopolitics
|
Regional Affairs
|
N96XISoQnmK8nCAeqmki
|
will-jimmy-carter-die-in-2024
|
Will Jimmy Carter die in 2024?
| null | 1,703,624,953,482
| 1,735,508,499,551
| 1,735,587,474,631
|
YES
| 0.996016
| 95,193.448615
|
Politics
|
Celebrity & Pop Culture
|
e2q1xpu3tt
|
will-kamala-harris-win-the-popular
|
Will Kamala Harris win the popular vote but lose the Electoral College?
| null | 1,726,309,875,625
| 1,730,953,295,957
| 1,730,953,295,957
|
NO
| 0.01
| 19,959.667901
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
6kyC0zqK8ozUdBJlBBWT
|
will-the-twins-win-87-or-more-games
|
Will the Twins win 87 or more games in the 2024 MLB regular season?
| null | 1,705,732,988,812
| 1,727,458,118,852
| 1,727,458,118,852
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,288.316623
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
7pp1ac35es
|
will-any-sweepstakes-market-cross-1
|
Will any sweepstakes market cross $10,000 in total volume in 2024?
| null | 1,726,594,806,794
| 1,727,200,143,374
| 1,727,200,143,374
|
YES
| 0.99
| 9,833.126833
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
JesXpCG8NfxlBxMqUlMu
|
will-the-margin-of-victory-in-the-2-19d0d7c91571
|
Will the margin of victory in the 2024 POTUS election in Georgia be greater than in 2020 (0.3%)?
| null | 1,707,672,690,921
| 1,731,044,798,110
| 1,731,044,798,110
|
YES
| 0.99
| 2,255.823607
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
9Ut8ZS6O6U
|
will-kamala-harris-appear-on-the-jo
|
Will Kamala Harris appear on the Joe Rogan podcast before the November 2024 election?
| null | 1,729,869,772,243
| 1,730,822,340,000
| 1,730,831,387,540
|
NO
| 0.008361
| 1,631.533269
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
mkbiu1216h
|
will-manifold-think-that-kamala-wou-spuzqvuu1j
|
Will Manifold think that Kamala would beat Trump in a game of chess if both have one month to prepare?
| null | 1,724,493,056,620
| 1,727,150,340,000
| 1,727,455,177,210
|
YES
| 0.98
| 1,074.182349
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
MU5sBBKf4wXhu36jvh9d
|
will-world-chess-championship-2024
|
Will World Chess Championship 2024 be a close match?
| null | 1,713,900,580,415
| 1,732,712,014,320
| 1,732,712,014,320
|
YES
| 0.950681
| 4,668.66124
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
2PR83ndJofIB5yE5eNdW
|
soai-23-310-will-selfimproving-al-a
|
SoAI 23 3/10: Will Self-improving Al agents crush SOTA in a complex environment (e.g. AAA game, tool use, science)?
| null | 1,697,652,393,670
| 1,728,661,552,303
| 1,728,661,552,303
|
NO
| 0.06
| 8,977.769598
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
yvmRguMUXETuQEk8a8Nl
|
20241029-will-amzn-close-above-150
|
2024-10-29: Will AMZN close above $150?
| null | 1,718,121,922,865
| 1,730,260,740,000
| 1,730,316,531,900
|
YES
| 0.99
| 899.51305
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
nw8yxskRMyhJB0MQzKNw
|
will-the-democrats-win-a-majority-i
|
Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2024 elections?
| null | 1,679,174,782,879
| 1,731,711,300,842
| 1,731,711,300,842
|
NO
| 0.009742
| 1,089,412.789441
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
LHEpQWaAMDx5KEviOsMK
|
will-a-democrat-win-the-2024-presid-7f924e6ea17f
|
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Washington?
| null | 1,670,815,678,255
| 1,730,912,529,362
| 1,730,912,529,362
|
YES
| 0.978199
| 929.913255
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
O8sNnC9lhE
|
will-mikheil-kavelashvili-be-electe
|
Will Mikheil Kavelashvili be elected as President of Georgia
| null | 1,733,810,432,650
| 1,734,232,948,959
| 1,734,232,948,959
|
YES
| 0.959286
| 4,643
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
OwSPcspntKHKdalqx0wL
|
will-the-german-ampel-coalition-bre
|
Will the German Ampel coalition break apart before the end of its term?
| null | 1,712,873,158,258
| 1,731,047,430,870
| 1,731,047,430,870
|
YES
| 0.989275
| 10,919.33138
|
Politics
|
Government Structure
|
iEIWmBeurHpdwEguYkAH
|
will-elon-musk-run-for-a-political
|
Will Elon Musk run for a political office in 2024?
| null | 1,703,875,896,518
| 1,733,416,484,485
| 1,733,416,484,485
|
NO
| 0.017295
| 5,517.109721
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
dlyoxo896f
|
will-harris-win-a-state-in-the-2024
|
Will Harris win a state in the 2024 election that Biden lost in 2020?
| null | 1,721,649,404,837
| 1,731,594,099,838
| 1,731,594,099,838
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,130.732218
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
WJuYWNgq5VCSyFwwTD7h
|
will-a-prominent-african-leader-be
|
Will a prominent African leader be indicted for corruption or war crimes by an international court within the next year?
| null | 1,691,002,533,982
| 1,722,754,740,000
| 1,727,879,039,358
|
NO
| 0.02
| 540
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
8ylZuRghEg
|
will-iran-hit-israel-within-7-days
|
Will Iran hit Israel within 7 days of being attacked by them?
| null | 1,730,143,556,330
| 1,730,679,870,117
| 1,730,679,870,117
|
NO
| 0.01142
| 1,533.339487
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
p1LmanPujKlxkzDpRIIf
|
will-austin-lesswrongs-winter-solst
|
Will Austin LessWrong's Winter Solstice event be held at Silas's place in 2024?
| null | 1,703,365,207,379
| 1,734,801,737,696
| 1,734,801,737,696
|
YES
| 0.584635
| 25
|
Entertainment
|
Celebrity & Pop Culture
|
pElt68lcZu
|
will-pennsylvania-da-stop-elon-musk
|
Will Pennsylvania DA stop Elon Musk PAC from $1M daily voter giveaways before Election Day?
| null | 1,730,128,207,241
| 1,730,955,540,000
| 1,730,961,831,835
|
NO
| 0.058504
| 3,763.222565
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
5azc3vhrjljwPwxQLtg2
|
will-a-llm-beat-human-experts-on-gp
|
Will a LLM beat human experts on GPQA by Jan 1, 2025?
| null | 1,700,594,124,333
| 1,734,723,530,620
| 1,734,723,530,620
|
YES
| 0.926415
| 41,863.851275
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
HBU2tCo53ImhNBQldfZN
|
nfl-week-3-sep-22-will-the-clevelan
|
NFL Week 3 (Sep 22): Will the Cleveland Browns beat the New York Giants?
| null | 1,715,833,606,460
| 1,727,068,268,798
| 1,727,068,268,798
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,168.247731
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
Oy6ys8ZqZn
|
will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-Acgp2PE8S0
|
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Dec 11 than it closed on Dec 10?
| null | 1,733,856,362,607
| 1,733,950,985,143
| 1,733,950,985,143
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,012.84458
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
2ynf6dao68
|
will-bitcoin-be-higher-in-a-week
|
Will Bitcoin be higher in a week?
| null | 1,728,580,718,746
| 1,729,230,507,463
| 1,729,230,507,463
|
YES
| 0.99
| 905.321697
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
A9dh8nglp8
|
will-democrats-win-both-houses-of-c
|
Will Democrats win both houses of Congress?
| null | 1,730,716,360,936
| 1,731,387,540,000
| 1,731,413,815,185
|
NO
| 0.01
| 894.987437
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
m03zr1nxok
|
will-kamala-harriss-brat-summer-car
|
Will Kamala Harris’s "Brat Summer" carry through till November?
| null | 1,722,345,570,217
| 1,730,851,140,000
| 1,731,824,574,718
|
NO
| 0.204109
| 1,116.354436
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
8ZO545W9vF98wQYYviN6
|
will-dan-osborn-independent-be-with
|
Will Dan Osborn (Independent) be within 10 points of Deb Fischer (Republican incumbent) in the Nebraska Senate election?
| null | 1,713,069,610,043
| 1,730,934,723,643
| 1,730,934,729,244
|
YES
| 0.986017
| 8,340.543162
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
tPTVg4UozPQSvj5iItDc
|
will-bitcoin-hit-80000-before-40000
|
Will Bitcoin hit $80,000 before $40,000?
| null | 1,709,217,073,459
| 1,731,246,097,325
| 1,731,246,097,325
|
YES
| 0.99
| 47,846.751319
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
sFLi7CTIN4zrZaH8nPB2
|
will-doug-burgum-win-the-2024-unite
|
Will Doug Burgum win the 2024 United States presidential election?
| null | 1,686,151,917,849
| 1,731,149,586,066
| 1,731,149,586,066
|
NO
| 0.007653
| 2,005
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
fconw8iu68
|
daily-coinflip-ik7e8vxmds
|
Daily coinflip
| null | 1,727,244,755,796
| 1,727,402,400,000
| 1,727,403,519,368
|
NO
| 0.51
| 59,165.718906
|
Sports
|
Sports Culture & Recreation
|
3LshbzTunxtF3qcdalCD
|
will-godzilla-x-kong-have-a-higher
|
Will GODZILLA X KONG have a higher Rotten Tomatoes audience score than the next Palme d'Or winner at Cannes?
| null | 1,710,618,404,996
| 1,730,682,616,242
| 1,730,682,616,242
|
YES
| 0.925301
| 2,827.964364
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
x607d0fuir
|
will-anthropic-release-an-api-relat
|
Will Anthropic release an API related to agent use on October 22, 2024?
| null | 1,729,348,927,483
| 1,729,611,423,184
| 1,729,611,423,184
|
YES
| 0.91
| 7,051.183637
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
1Z06UQWZZPnq8lJo33se
|
will-kurdistan-hold-elections-befor
|
Will Kurdistan hold elections before the end of 2024?
| null | 1,707,672,936,485
| 1,730,599,026,552
| 1,730,599,026,552
|
YES
| 0.393742
| 56.839041
|
Geopolitics
|
Regional Affairs
|
uIZlnmFE8Pun4Y3XunFa
|
will-cornell-west-appear-on-the-bal-e7927b68a557
|
Will Cornell West appear on the ballot in Georgia in Nov 2024?
| null | 1,709,156,778,748
| 1,729,769,055,873
| 1,729,769,055,873
|
YES
| 0.85
| 565.768482
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
YOwdRMK9jiO8LSYPWBaK
|
will-spencer-have-plans-for-hallowe
|
Will Spencer have plans for Halloween 2024?
| null | 1,708,829,192,727
| 1,730,511,960,000
| 1,730,529,005,658
|
YES
| 0.521227
| 211.39576
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
9mxcrrv1ax
|
will-i-cynthia-get-a-full-time-job
|
Will I (Cynthia) get a full time job by the end of 2024?
| null | 1,724,467,861,915
| 1,729,717,935,540
| 1,729,717,935,540
|
YES
| 0.95
| 2,069.286442
|
Finance
|
Personal Finance
|
4luk7nibrx
|
will-ma-get-laid-by-winter-solstice
|
Will Ma get laid by winter solstice 2024?
| null | 1,727,035,196,596
| 1,734,750,969,115
| 1,734,750,969,115
|
YES
| 0.919548
| 240
|
Entertainment
|
Celebrity & Pop Culture
|
aulPr98FjLbWqRB7VKrz
|
will-soon-to-be-former-dutch-pm-mar
|
Will (soon to be former) Dutch PM Mark Rutte be the next secretary general of NATO?
| null | 1,698,872,283,428
| 1,727,790,729,805
| 1,727,790,729,805
|
YES
| 0.99
| 26,814.466704
|
Politics
|
International Relations
|
1yijb82cab
|
will-the-certified-electoral-votes
|
Will the certified electoral votes differ from the final votes in the 2024 US election?
| null | 1,724,614,506,145
| 1,735,665,821,519
| 1,735,665,821,519
|
NO
| 0.010557
| 12,926.504298
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
c64srxu576
|
is-jack-burkman-actually-mark-robin
|
Is Jack Burkman actually Mark Robinson's new campaign manager?
| null | 1,727,065,707,726
| 1,727,121,481,738
| 1,727,121,481,738
|
NO
| 0.25
| 750
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
tghj848kzk
|
will-new-hezbollah-leader-hashim-sa
|
Will presumptive Hezbollah leader Hashem Safieddine survive 2024?
| null | 1,727,648,917,178
| 1,729,672,513,147
| 1,729,672,513,147
|
NO
| 0.01
| 69,769.074263
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
QaUtFAI23DerCCshdbyu
|
will-any-of-the-videos-uploaded-to-33a44c108f7d
|
Will any of the videos uploaded to Rational Animation's YouTube channel in Sep 2024 surpass 200k views?
| null | 1,707,014,153,630
| 1,727,464,991,086
| 1,727,464,991,086
|
YES
| 1
| 2,077.203789
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
h9cCGh6LUGimrBkTFSN0
|
will-guilherme-boulos-be-elected-ma
|
Will Guilherme Boulos be elected mayor of São Paulo in 2024?
| null | 1,684,624,551,258
| 1,731,190,877,497
| 1,731,190,877,497
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,055.870197
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
6EKcapcDXgaC5EzSItXE
|
will-caroline-ellison-be-sentenced
|
Will Caroline Ellison be sentenced to any prison time?
| null | 1,696,949,846,661
| 1,727,247,644,809
| 1,727,247,644,809
|
YES
| 0.99
| 17,345.918035
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
jQZYnRSVHRqYdjQDnRFb
|
will-the-democrats-control-the-penn
|
Will the Democrats control the Pennsylvania House of Representatives after the 2024 election?
| null | 1,704,222,729,307
| 1,731,604,904,936
| 1,731,604,904,936
|
YES
| 0.99
| 5,436.741603
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
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