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2. Increased focus on enforcing the provisions in the laws governing customs and tax administration to accelerate collection of tax arrears. 3. Strengthening the audit capacity in the Inland Revenue Department and increase the number of tax audits each year. 4. Implementing a strategy to increase compliance generally, and particularly in respect of ABST and PIT. Particular emphasis will be placed on improving compliance among professionals and self-employed individuals. 5.
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5. Broadening the tax base by undertaking a registration initiative to ensure all businesses operating in Antigua and Barbuda are included in the tax net. 6. Introducing technological and process enhancements in the revenue agencies to help improve revenue collection. In particular, ASYCUDA World will be implemented to modernize and improve efficiency in the Customs and Excise Division and significantly reduce leakage of revenue from border taxes. 7.
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7. Increasing property tax compliance, broadening the property tax base through a property registration drive and enhancing the property tax legislation for more efficient administration. 8. Reviewing and rationalizing fees and licenses to ensure more cost effective and improved service delivery. In addition to these revenue measures, the Government will improve arrangements for the payment of surplus funds from the relevant statutory corporations to the consolidated fund.
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This process will ensure that the appropriate amounts are paid to Central Government while safeguarding the viability of the statutory corporations. Further, a formal mechanism for the transfer of certain resources generated through the operation of the CIP will be implemented. It is expected that these revenue measures and reform initiatives will increase the revenue to GDP ratio to about 25 percent.
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E. Debt Management Strategy Antigua and Barbuda has a high debt level that has a heterogeneous creditor base. This has made designing a debt restructuring policy somewhat difficult. However since 2009 the government has focused on reducing arrears and where possible and re-profiling the remaining amounts over longer-term maturities – allowing the Government time to rebuild its revenue base.
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GoAB Medium-Term Development Strategy 2016-2020 Page 81 Total Outstanding Debt Stock in Million of US Dollars 2005-2014 2000.00 1000.00 0.00 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 External Domestic Total External Domestic Notwithstanding the efforts made, Antigua and Barbuda still has a relatively high cost of borrowing as a result of perceived market risks, limited space for counter-cyclical spending, limited financial capacity to respond to natural disasters and a limited ability to leverage public private partnerships.
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Debt service over the historical period has remained high owing mainly to the fact that the domestic obligations (which tend to attract higher interest rates) take up the larger portion of the portfolio. Total Outstanding Public Debt as at December 2014 External Public Debt 43% Domestic Public Debt 57% The proposed debt management initiatives will place the public sector debt on a downward trend, by eliminating arrears and normalising relations with all creditors.
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This is imperative to restore fiscal sustainability, reviving private sector investment and improving the country’s overall GoAB Medium-Term Development Strategy 2016-2020 Page 82 credit profile. Over the long term, the Government’s debt objective is to reach the overall targets set forth by the ECCB for all ECCU members by 2030 – a debt-to-GDP ratio of 60 per cent and a maximum interest burden, which is defined as interest due on debt to Government revenues, of 15 per cent.
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Specific measures to achieve these goals are as follows: 1. Borrow on concessional terms both from bilateral and multilateral sources 2. Ensure loans are at international market rates 3. Pursue debt relief instead of refinancing 4. Match financing to type of projects 5. Prioritize fixed rate loans versus variable rates 6. Minimize non USD denominated external loans and generally manage foreign currency exchange risks 7. Carefully monitor contingent liabilities 8.
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Carefully monitor contingent liabilities 8. Prioritize financially viable projects. Debt Restructuring The government will continue to engage in discussions with bilateral creditors so that where arrears exist they can be normalised. Debt relief will be vigorously pursued. The following are the proposed strategies: 1. Engage in Debt for nature swaps 2. Buyback expensive debt 3. Seek Debt Forgiveness 4. Set-off liabilities with supporting assets or cash 5.
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Development a payment plan for outstanding arrears and convert arrears to long term securities where possible. Managing Contingency risks The main source of contingency risks to the government comes from SOEs. As a part of debt management activities the government will engage actively with SOEs to monitor their risks of default on current liabilities and minimize new borrowing for enterprises that are considered medium to high risk.
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F. New Financing Opportunities A significant amount of resources will be required to carry out the Government’s development agenda over the next four years. Bilateral and Multilateral Financing In order to minimize the cost of borrowing, the main sources will utilize bilateral and multilateral external sources to finance technical assistance with ongoing reform initiatives and to finance GoAB Medium-Term Development Strategy 2016-2020 Page 83 upgrades to critical infrastructure.
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The Regional Government Securities Market will serve as source of financing for minor capital works, cash flow and liability management.
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Over the Medium-Term the government will capitalize on financing from the following external sources: The Peoples Republic of China The Government of Mexico The Government of Turkey The European Union The Government of Canada The CARICOM Development Fund The World Bank The Caribbean Development Bank The European Investment Bank OPEC Fund for International Development Disaster Risk Financing Plan To improve the predictability of the budget, the Ministry of Finance will collaborate with NODS to prepare a disaster risk financing plan.
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Options will be considered for the selection of risk financing instruments on the basis of frequency and severity of disasters. The plan will distinguish between those risks that will be retained; opportunities for risk pooling such as that which occurs under CCRIF; and those risks that are best transferred. With respect to risk retention, some risks may be financed out of budgetary savings and appropriate proposals for doing so will be made.
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These could include specific budgetary allocations and the establishment of reserve funds. In other instances, it may be best to finance retained risks and in those cases access to multilateral resources will remain important. Alternative risk financing instruments from multilateral development banks will also be considered, including the use of contingent loans which may require the country to pursue and sustain agreed macro-economic targets.
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Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) PPP’s will be one of the major approaches to financing development along with heightened direct private investments. PPP projects will be utilised in all sectors and will be designed in a manner where risks are aligned with benefits. The following sectors: energy; health care; education; housing and tourism will all benefit from the PPP approach.
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Other new financing instruments The feasibility of establishing new instruments for financing public sector activity will be studied. This could include the floating of development bonds or the establishment of trust funds GoAB Medium-Term Development Strategy 2016-2020 Page 84 for specific purposes. Such purposes could include the development of specific infrastructure, capitalizing venture capital funds, equity participation in ABDB, and the development of tourism.
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Features to make such instruments attractive to the Antiguan and Barbudan diaspora will be considered. GoAB Medium-Term Development Strategy 2016-2020 Page 85 Chapter VI Human Resource Development Strategy The optimal achievement of development results requires us to make our best efforts to put in place adequate human resource capacities.
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This includes the right mix of skills for pursing the various outcomes (necessary conditions or ministerial mandates), as well as appropriate quantities subject to budgetary constraints. It is also important to arrive at an appropriate allocation of capabilities across ministerial portfolios in line with set priorities.
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Moreover, given that wages and salaries account for a large share of government spending, the efficient use of human resources is an important area to be scrutinized with respect to potential contribution to sustainable fiscal operations.
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While public sector reform has long been on the cards – with support from a number of regional and international institutions including the Caribbean Development Bank and the World Bank – the time has come for resolute action to improve the efficiency of the public sector in ways that preserve social cohesion. We desire a public sector that is focused on performance, and that represents an attractive carrier path compared to the private sector route.
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Achieving these goals necessitate putting in place an effective HR management function that is strongly linked to, or complements effective programme budgeting. Towards attaining the objective of achieving an efficient, goal-oriented and attractive civil service, efforts will be undertaken to address the inter- related challenges discussed below.
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These efforts will contribute towards the achievement of better development results as well as the sustainability of fiscal operations, while preserving industrial peace. These efforts will largely be led by the ministry responsible for the public service. A. Strategy to improve flexibility of the public service Adequate flexibility is the foundation requirement to improve the efficiency of the civil service with regard to the allocation and the management of human resources.
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Thus actions will be taken in the following areas. 1. Modernization of legislation: The Ministry responsible for the public service will prepare a paper on the adjustments to legislation or/and regulations that are desired for the effective conduct of human resource management within the civil service, and will lead efforts for the subsequent enactment/amendment of legislation and related regulations.
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This action is intended to remove the limitation for effective human resource management posed by the existing legal architecture. Such adjustments to the legislation and regulation should, where necessary, facilitate the implementation of the other HR strategies that are discussed below. 2. Staffing to implement HR Strategy: The staffing requirement of the HR department will be reviewed with respect to its capacity to carry out the HR strategies discussed below.
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Any increase in staffing requirement will be met through transfers from other department of government (even if temporarily) unless there is strong justification to do otherwise. 3.
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3. Close co-ordination between HR management function and programme budgeting: In concert with efforts to strengthen programme budgeting, the ministry GoAB Medium-Term Development Strategy 2016-2020 Page 86 responsible for the civil service, will coordinate with the Ministry of Finance to provide clear guidance to line ministries with respect to the alignment of human resources to programmes during the budget formulation process. 4.
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4. Realignment strategies and protocols: In line with #3 above, the ministry responsible for the public service will prepare strategies and protocols (including associated time lines where necessary) for realigning displaced persons, evaluating new job requirement, and setting appropriate remuneration with respect budget submissions. B.
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B. Strategy related to established and non- established staffing A multifaceted approach will be used to, right-fit and right-size the public sector, and to improve consistency within the civil service structure. To preserve a good industrial climate, “win win” solutions are needed. No one facet of the strategy is expected to be sufficient to completely attain the desired ends.
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GoAB will aim to create and enabling environment for private sector job creation that will facilitate the right sizing of the public sector. The elements of the strategy, which are to be led by ministry with responsibility for the civil service, are as follows. 1. Change in hiring practices: A clear policy will be developed regarding the appointment of government workers outside of the Civil Service.
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This will address the terms and conditions of employment, the number of posts that may be filled and the remuneration and benefits to be provided for such engagements, among other areas. The terms and conditions of such appointments must contribute to high morale and productivity within the public service. This strategy will lead incrementally over a number of years to consistent conditions under which persons are employed in the public service. 2.
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2. Retraining and Reassignment: Guided by the ministry responsible for the civil service, each line ministry will assess the composition of staffing it would need to fulfil its mandate or to effectively contribute to attaining goals set out in the MTDS.
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Based on the staff positions that may be required within line ministries, an assessment will be made of the extent to which staff can be retrained through in-house programmes to perform other duties for which additional staffing is required within and across line ministries. A programme will therefore be developed to retrain staff and reassign them within or across ministerial lines.
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There may be practical limits associated with this strategy, but details for the approach will be developed including, eligibility for training and transfer, selection criteria should opportunities for training and transfer be limited compared with positions that can be discarded, phasing and sequencing over a period of time. Through such training and transfers, opportunities will be sought to address inconsistencies associated with remuneration between established and non-established staff.
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For instance, a non-established clerical staff who receives a higher remuneration than his counterpart in the established service may be transferred to a technical position that matches his current salary should he qualify to be retrained and transferred. 3. Private Sector Employment Programme.
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3. Private Sector Employment Programme. To complement the retraining and reassignment programmes, the ministry responsible for the public service in collaboration with the ministry responsible for labour, will design and implement a GoAB Medium-Term Development Strategy 2016-2020 Page 87 programme to find employment within the private sector for persons whose positions within the civil service are not essential.
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This programme could serve to place those who cannot be retrained and transferred within the civil service, and could be presented as an alternative. The private sector employment programme could take into consideration significant new investments in the tourism industry that are currently being contemplated. 4.
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4. Entrepreneurship Programme: Similarly, the ministry responsible for the civil service will collaborate with the ministry responsible for industry to design and implement an entrepreneurship programme to facilitate the transition out of the civil service, of persons whose positions are not essential. This programme will complement the other transitioning programme and/or serve as an alternative to them.
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The above strategies will be actively pursued and appropriate actions will be taken to manage change, including through public relations campaigns. C. Strategy related to staff productivity A number of steps will be taken to improve productivity within the civil service. These will include the following. 1.
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These will include the following. 1. The mounting of in-house training and sensitization programmes: These efforts will aim at assisting to change undesirable public sector norms and practices, and to raise awareness of the role of each ministry, each department, as well as their shared, interrelated and inter-dependent responsibility. This approach will be combined with appropriate public relations campaigns aimed at changing mindsets.
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Towards this the ministry responsible for the public service will collaborate with the ministry responsible for information. Training will also address key areas of public sector wide weaknesses, including leadership and change management. 2. Manuals and Job descriptions: Line ministries will prepare procedural manuals and written job descriptions, where necessary, to guide the operations of existing and new staff.
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This activity will be actively encouraged by the ministry responsible for the public service. 3. Job function reviews and Job audits: Job function reviews and Job audits will be conducted by the ministry responsible for the public services in collaboration with line-ministries. These reviews and audits will help indicate the extent to which there is under-utilization of staff, and will be used to inform adjustments to the staffing requirement of ministries. 4.
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4. Motivation and rewards: The potential for a rewards programme to promote productivity will be studied. More-over the feasibility of an appraisal system tied to pay increases and other rewards will be explored. 5. Empowering middle managers: The tools available to middle managers to encourage performance will be reviewed and based on finding of the factors that may reduce the effectiveness of managers, appropriate recommendations to address these will be implemented. 6.
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6. Accountability framework for senior managers: An accountability framework for senior managers will be developed and linked with programme budgeting, as well as GoAB Medium-Term Development Strategy 2016-2020 Page 88 with the monitoring and evaluation results framework and the development planning and implementation framework set out in this document.
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D. Attracting appropriate skills 1. Review of remuneration: The functional review and job audits, as well as the subsequent proposals on the adjustment to job requirements that may be necessary, will provide the basis for evaluation and review of the appropriateness of remuneration, subject to considerations of cost of acquiring specific skill requirement for various jobs as well as market demand and supply considerations. 2. Developing capacities for achieving sustainable development goals.
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The ministry responsible for the public service will establish clear protocols for interaction with line ministries concerning areas of skills shortages particularly as it relates to the implementation of the MTDS and other broad national planning documents. The ministry, in collaboration with line ministries, will develop a strategy for addressing skill shortages.
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These strategies could include the provision of local training, in- service training, oversees training, as well as strategies for attracting new staff with appropriate skills. With respect to oversees training and attracting new staff with appropriate skill sets, the ministry responsible for the public service will collaborate with the Ministry of Education regarding the priority areas for the provision of study incentives – scholarships and concessional loans.
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This will be reflected within the study incentive strategy of the Ministry of Education, which is expected to offer differential incentives to reflect varying priority levels for various skill sets. Given role of MoFCG for implementation oversight of the MTDS, priority will be given to establishing an appropriate structure and increasing human resource and technical capacity within the ministry.
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Government will work with development partners to address this area as an immediate priority follow-up activity. GoAB Medium-Term Development Strategy 2016-2020 Page 89 Chapter VII Monitoring and Evaluation Monitoring and evaluation is an important tool for sound economic management, to which we have not, hitherto, paid sufficient attention. Monitoring and evaluation is essential for effective programme budgeting and for managing for development results in general.
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It is not sufficient to prepare good plans and budgets using a programme format. We also need to continually assess: whether we are doing what we said we would do; whether these are leading to improvements in the quality of life that we seek for ourselves, and for future generations; and the reasons why we may not be reaching the targets we set with respect to various outcomes. This is the essence of monitoring and evaluation.
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This is the essence of monitoring and evaluation. We do not desire monitoring and evaluation information simply for information sake, but rather to use it to improve our performance, design more efficacious plans and prepare better budgets. This completes the planning cycle. Thus, as previously indicated, Antigua and Barbuda will strengthen programme budgeting as an important step towards more effective planning. An appropriate monitoring and evaluation framework is central to this.
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The M&E framework will focus on three interacting levels: 1. Monitoring the achievement of the Ultimate Goal, the Sustainable Development Dimensions, and the Necessary Conditions that lead to these, as reflected in the sustainable development framework (Chapter I). Long-term and medium-term targets in relation to these will be set for 2030 and 2019 respectively. These will incorporate targets for the SDGs, where applicable.
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Additionally, applicable targets in relation to the SDGs will be reported on in parallel with the MTDS indicators for purposes of global accountability. 2. Monitoring actions towards addressing key system-wide constraints or the enabling systems. These constraints relate to the effectiveness of development planning, strategy implementation, budgeting, the adequacy of fiscal resources, and human resource capacity limitations. These interacting areas are largely reflected in Chapter IV to Chapter VII.
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They significantly impact the achievement of the result that will be monitored at Level 1 above. 3. Monitoring core strategic actions (not including the key system-wide constraints) that will be taken towards optimizing the achievement of the Necessary Conditions required to attain the various sustainable development dimensions. These actions are reflected in Chapter III. Monitoring at Level 1 and at Level 2 will be led by the MoFCG in the context of the monitoring framework discussed in this chapter.
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Monitoring at Level 3 will be the responsibility of line ministries, other public sector bodies and SOEs. Each line ministry, public sector body and SOE, is expected to build an appropriate monitoring and evaluation framework to reflect its contribution to achieving the goals embedded in the sustainable development framework. The requirement for line ministries to submit performance information as an element of their programme budget submissions will be continued.
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Ministries will reflect in their business plans the strategies that they will undertake towards contributing to the achievement of the Necessary Conditions for attaining the Sustainable Development Dimensions. Monitoring and evaluation at Level 3 will overlap with monitoring and evaluation at Levels 1 and 2. GoAB Medium-Term Development Strategy 2016-2020 Page 90 A.
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The Institutional Framework for monitoring the Achievement of the Ultimate Goal, the SDDs and the associated NCs The institutional framework for Monitoring and Evaluating (M&E) will involve a set of four working committees to be chaired by the Statistics Division or the Ministry of Finance, with close collaboration between them. Participation in the M&E working committees will be by the same ministries, other public sector bodies and SOEs that participate in the SDD meeting discussed in Chapter IV.
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Representation of line ministries, other public sector bodies and SOEs, where possible, will be by those individuals with responsibility for data collection and monitoring and evaluation. The MoFCG in consultation with the Statistics Department will determine the frequency with which M and E Working Committee meetings will be held. Table 5 depicts the institutional structure of the M&E framework.
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Each M&E Working Committee will be responsible for analyzing the degree of achievement of the SDD concerned and the associated NCs, including providing likely explanations of changes in the Key Performance Indicators (KPIs). This information will be submitted to the MoFCG.
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This information will be submitted to the MoFCG. On the basis of this information, the MOFCG in consultation with the ministry responsible for the substantive area, will deliberate on actions needed to improve the achievement of results, and will in turn make recommendations for action by Cabinet, Ministries, other public sector bodies or SOE. The MoFCG will submit selected KPIs to Cabinet with analysis in order to give an indication of progress towards achievement of SDDs.
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Table 5 Institutional Structure for the M and E framework CABINET Reviews overall progress on the MTDS based on the M&E reports submitted by the MOFCG. MOFCG Oversee the process of the Working Committees, review the data, report to the CABINET, with recommendations. M and E Working Committees Assemble the data for each SDD, interpret the data, submit reports to the MOFCG.
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Working Committee SDD 1 Working Committee- SDD Working Committee SDD 3 Working Committee SDD 4 - Optimal Generation of National Wealth Chair: MOF or SD Co -chair: Ministry responsible for tourism or investment 2 - Enhanced Social Cohesion Chair: MOF or SD Co-chair - Ministry responsible for social transformation - Improved Health Of Natural Environmental, And Sustained Historical, and Cultural Assets Chair: MOF or SD Co-chair – Ministry responsible for the environment - Enhanced Citizen Security Chair: MOF or SD Co- Chair – Ministry responsible for the national security.
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The Indicator Framework The M&E working committees will be tasked with the development of the KPIs necessary for monitoring the implementation of the MTDS, the development of the M&E framework in general and will make recommendations for putting in place the relevant capacity for the GoAB Medium-Term Development Strategy 2016-2020 Page 91 effective monitoring and evaluation of development results.
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Appendix 1 provides a Preliminary Indicator framework which will be further developed by the MOF in collaboration the Statistics Division, working through the M&E Working Committees with respect to the appropriate SDD. More specifically, the M&E Working Committees will undertake the following and, as necessary, will make recommendations in this regard to the MOFCP. 1. Refine the KPIs and related targets– in relation to the SDDs and the associated NCs.
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These are to be realistic in the context of cost and HR capacity. Some KPIs may not be currently available, but proposals will be made by the SDD Working Committees for the development or collection of such information in future periods. 2. Assess M&E capacity including data availability as well as human resource capacity to collect, process, analyze and disseminate. 3.
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3. Deliberate on issues to do with what to measure, responsibility for measuring, collecting, processing, analyzing and disseminating data, and who to disseminate to, among other necessary considerations for arriving at an appropriate M and E Framework, 4. Determine issues to do with frequency of collection of data/KPI, the cost of data collection, the use of substitute measures and the need for training and IT capacity. 5.
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5. Propose adjustments along the way to improve practicality and usefulness of the M&E framework considering resource limitation – human and financial. 6. Make recommendations on any of the above for consideration by the Ministry of Finance or the Statistics Division.
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Sustainable Development Goals Actions under the MTDS will simultaneously contribute to the attainment of the Sustainable Development Goals, which will be formally adopted by Heads of Government under the United Nations framework in September 2015. These goals and their associated indicators are reflected in Appendix 2. Appendix 1, where possible, directly integrates the SDGs.
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Line Ministries The Working Committees will also provide advice to line-ministries and public sector agencies regarding critical gaps in data collection and M&E capacity with respect to lower level goals and actions that are expected to contribute to the achievement of the SDDs and the NCs. The MoFCG in collaboration with the Establishment Department will have lead responsibility for sensitizing, assisting and guiding line ministries, public sector bodies and SOEs to develop appropriate M&E frameworks.
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Moreover, the MoFCG, working closely with the Statistics Division and in consultation with the four SDD Working Committees will prepare a development path in relation to developing adequate monitoring and evaluation capacity across the public sector. The Division will build on the recent progress it has made and will give consideration to developing a comprehensive National Statistical System.
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GoAB Medium-Term Development Strategy 2016-2020 Page 92 Enabling Systems In addition to monitoring and evaluation performance with respect to the degree of attainment of the Ultimate goal, the SDD and the associated NCs, the MoFCG will closely monitor the extent to which enabling systems are put in place towards optimizing the achievement of the development outcomes.
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In that regard KPIs will be developed to monitor progress with respect to the prioritization framework, the development planning and MTDS implementation framework and the related M&E framework, the resource mobilization strategy, and the human resource strategy. GoAB Medium-Term Development Strategy 2016-2020 Page 93 Appendix 1: Monitoring and Evaluation Indicator Framework Goals Overall Goal: To improve the quality of life for all Antiguans and Barbudans and their posterity.
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Key Performance Indicator (KPI) Human Development Index (score) Human Development Index (rank) Baseline Data (Year) Target Source Notes 0.774 (2013) An increase UNDP Scale is 0 to 1, highest in 2013 was .944 (Norway). Updated annually. 61 (2013) Top 50 by 2030 UNDP Out of 187 countries ranked.
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Level of Poverty 18.3% (2005/6) 2020 TBD based on 2016 CPA assessment By 2030, reduce at least by half the proportion of men, women and children of all ages living in poverty in all its dimensions (SDG) Ministry with responsibility for social transformation. The next round of CPAs that will be facilitated by CDB will include a multi-dimensional poverty index.
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Antigua and Barbuda assessment will be conducted in 2016 As reflected under each KPI As reflected under each KPI As reflected under each KPI The analysis needs to consider the inter-relatedness of the SDDs.
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A basket of major KPIs under each SDD, to include GDP/cap; poverty and indigence levels; incidence of crime; life expectancy; access to health care; access to basic education; water quality; forest cover; food security; and agricultural production SDD 1 Optimal national income and investment Real GDP Growth (%) 1.82% (2013 Actual) 2.86%(2014 Projected) Achieve 5% growth by 20209 Statistics Division and ECCB Consistently maintain growth of at least 5%over a prolonged period thereafter.
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GoAB Medium-Term Development Strategy 2016-2020 Page 94 Goals Key Performance Indicator (KPI) Baseline Data (Year) Target Source Notes Unemployment rate 10.2% (2011 Census) Per capita income GDP (Nominal) EC$38,333 (2014) GDP (Nominal) Annual reduction in unemployment; Under 5% by 2030 Growth of 3% annually over medium to long term Statistics Division Labour market survey is expected to be conducted in 2015.
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Statistics Division Extent to which economic growth is decoupled from environmental degradation TBD TBD TBD This is an element of target 8.4 under SDG 8 NC 1.1Macro-Economic Stability Debt Sustainability Assessment Results of 2014 DSA assessment. Debt to GDP of 98.7% in 2014.
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Debt to GDP of 98.7% in 2014. Inflation Trends 3.38 (2012) Financial Stability Assessment Level of Foreign Reserves NC1.2 Penetrate export markets Growth in export of goods 1.06 (2013) 1.09 (2014) Result of the most recent ECCU FSAP assessment … Average, end of year Imputed reserves for the last three years – months of imports of good and services.
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-16.7% (2011) 13.4% (2012) 12.9% (2013) -37.9% (2014) Reduce Debt GDP to 80% by 2019 Debt Unit Reduce Debt to 60% by 2030 Inflation kept between 2 to 3% Statistics Division Improved Financial Stability IMF/ECCB Imputed Reserves maintained above three months of imports of goods and services ECCB Growth of 2% annually over Medium-Term and at least 5% over a prolonged period thereafter.
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Statistics Division and ECCB (BOP compilation) GoAB Medium-Term Development Strategy 2016-2020 Page 95 Baseline Data (Year) Target Source Notes Goals Key Performance Indicator (KPI) Growth in export of non-tourism services O.7% (2011) 0.6% (2012) -0.5% (2013 3.2% (2014) Growth in visitor Expenditure Average annual growth over 2011 to 2014 – 0.8% Global tourism market share or growth comparison with major competitors TBD NC1.3 Attract foreign investments Direct Foreign Investment as a ratio to GDP NC1.4 Effective industrial policy Gross fixed capital formation as % of GDP 7% (2009) 12.1% (2010) 6% (2011) 11.4% (2012) 8.4% (2013) 38.4% (2009) 28.4% (2010) 20.9% (2011) 22% (2012) 23.2% (2013) Growth of 3% annually over medium and at least 5% over a prolonged period thereafter.
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Statistics Division and ECCB (BOP compilation) At least 5% annually by 2019 Consistently maintain 5% growth for a prolonged period thereafter Sustained market share or growth in Market Share Statistics Division and ECCB (BOP compilation) Statistics Division CTO At least 15% of GDP annually over the Medium-Term.
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Statistics Division; ECCB (BOP compilation) At least 28% of GDP Annually Statistics Division Level of unemployment 10.2% (2011 Census) Sectoral growth Sector growth in 2015 Annual reduction in unemployment; Under 5% by 2030 Optimal growth within each sector. Statistics Division Statistics Division It would be necessary to assess the responsiveness of each sector to industrial policy.
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GoAB Medium-Term Development Strategy 2016-2020 Page 96 Goals Key Performance Indicator (KPI) Global competitiveness Index (GCI) rank and Score when available No GCI rank at the moment NC 1.4.1 – Strong tourism industry as an economic anchor Growth in visitor expenditure Average annual growth over 2011 to 2014 – 0.8% Baseline Data (Year) Target Source Notes World Bank Global Competitiveness report Antigua and Barbuda will work towards making sufficient data available to facilitate GCI assessment.
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Statistical Division - BOP data. Attainment of the GCI a score that places Antigua in transition to stage 3 development by 2030 (Innovation driven) At least 5% annually by 2019 Consistently maintain 5% growth for a prolonged period thereafter New investment in tourism Low levels of tourism investment between 2009 and 2014.
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Investments deemed necessary to reposition the tourism industry Ministry with responsibility for tourism Assessment of the sustainability of the tourism industry and uniqueness of the tourism product. First assessment period TBD A sustainable and unique tourism product. Ministry with responsibility for tourism NC1.4.2 Optimal economic transition Industry composition of GDP and composition of each Industry Optimal growth of sectors and impact on sector composition.
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Statistics Division 2014 (current prices) Agriculture – 0.91% Hotel and Restaurant - 15.03% Wholesale and Retail – 14.6% Real Estate Renting and Business Activities – 13.52% Financial Intermediation – 9.23% There will be an annual assessment of the investments needed to reposition the tourism industry In addition to social and environment aspects, this assessment will also reflect the degree to which our culture and unique Antiguan and Barbudan products contribute to the competitiveness of the tourism product.
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This is consistent with target 8.9 of SDG 8. It would be necessary to assess the change in composition and contributing factors GoAB Medium-Term Development Strategy 2016-2020 Page 97 Goals Key Performance Indicator (KPI) Baseline Data (Year) Target Source Notes Degree to which Barbuda is transitioning to a green, low-density and high-end tourism destination. Sector growth NC 1.4.3 Improved competitiveness Construction – 9.49% Education – 6.
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Low level of tourism activity in 2015 2014 Hotel and Restaurant - 2.96% Wholesale and Retail – 6.73% Real Estate Renting and Business Activities 4.80 Financial Intermediation 0.25% Construction 7.08% Increase in green low- density, high-end tourism activity Ministry with responsibility for tourism and ministry with responsibility for Barbuda affairs Optimal growth in each sector Statistics Division Annual assessments will be undertaken.
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It would be necessary to assess the responsiveness of each sector to industrial policy, especially with regard to the impact on micro, small and medium enterprises. Global tourism market share or growth comparison with major competitors TBD Sustained market share or growth in Market Share Statistics Division CTO NC1.4.4 Access to development finance The effectiveness of ABDB as a development finance institution Declining ABDB loan portfolio up to 2015 Annual growth in loan portfolio within major sub-areas.
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ABDB The effectiveness of the ADBD will be assess with respect to ability to attract capital and managing credit risks The establishment of a venture capital eco- system and a export financing facility Non existent A venture capital ecosystem initiated and an export financing facility established Ministry responsible for industry GoAB Medium-Term Development Strategy 2016-2020 Page 98 Goals Key Performance Indicator (KPI) Baseline Data (Year) Target Source Notes # of enterprises accessing venture capital and export financing.
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Nil TBD At least 2 firms access venture capital financing annually; At least 4 firms access the export financing facility annually over the medium to long term NC1.4.5 Technological adaptation and innovation (including green technology) Output per worker in selected industries Growth in total factor productivity (TFP) TBD TBD % of renewables in energy mix Less than 5% in 2015 Growth in output per worker Achieve greater contribution of technological progress to GDP growth 10% by 2020; 20% by 2030 TBD TBD CO2 emissions, total, per capita and per $1 GDP (PPP) Decoupling ratio Analysis to be undertaken Statistics Division Ministry with responsibility for finance Ministry with responsibility for energy Ministry with responsibility to the environment NC 1.4.6 Improving Incentive regime Appropriateness of Incentives Regime TBD Improved investment incentive regime This appropriateness of the regime will be assessed every three years NC1.4.7 Inclusive growth Level of unemployment 10.2% (2011 Census) Annual reduction in unemployment; Under 5% by 2030 Statistics Division Unemployment levels by gender, age and locality will also be monitored and analysed GoAB Medium-Term Development Strategy 2016-2020 Page 99 Goals Key Performance Indicator (KPI) Baseline Data (Year) Target Source Notes Gini Coefficient 0.48 in 2006 Progress towards O.40 by 2030 Poverty Level and percentage of the working poor Poverty of 18.3% (2005/6); Information on working poor TBD.
Gender Based violence- Violence Against Women
Child marriage
Antigua and Barbuda
https://docs-lawep.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1694500114623.pdf
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20120 TBD based on 2016 CPA assessment By 2030, reduce at least by half, the working poor, and the proportion of men, women and children of all ages living in poverty in all its dimensions (SDG) Ministry with responsibility for social transformation / CPA Ministry with responsibility for social transformation. An assessment will be made of the extent to which poverty affects those who are employed.
Gender Based violence- Violence Against Women
Child marriage
Antigua and Barbuda
https://docs-lawep.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1694500114623.pdf
https://www.environment.gov.ag/assets/uploads/attachments/c8a8e-goab-medium-term-development-strategy-sept-2015.pdf
TBD The extent to which Antiguans and Barbudans participate in the ownership of large scale transformational enterprises Greater participation of Antiguans and Barbudans in large-scale transformational enterprises. Ministry with responsibility for industry The ministry with responsibility for Industry is expected to devise strategies to encourage the greater participation of Antiguans and Barbudans in ownership of large-scale enterprises.
Gender Based violence- Violence Against Women
Child marriage
Antigua and Barbuda
https://docs-lawep.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1694500114623.pdf
https://www.environment.gov.ag/assets/uploads/attachments/c8a8e-goab-medium-term-development-strategy-sept-2015.pdf
NC1.5 Efficient markets including labour and financial markets Average weighted commercial bank lending rate March 2015 – 9.4% Reduction towards 8.0% by 2030 ECCB Availability of non- financial intermediaries Commercial Banks, Credit Unions, and Insurance Companies dominated financial intermediation up to 2015; Limited participation of Antigua and Barbuda companies in Eastern Caribbean Security ECSE Establishment of Venture Capital Ecosystem and Export Credit Facility by 20209.
Gender Based violence- Violence Against Women
Child marriage
Antigua and Barbuda
https://docs-lawep.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1694500114623.pdf
https://www.environment.gov.ag/assets/uploads/attachments/c8a8e-goab-medium-term-development-strategy-sept-2015.pdf
Improved participation in regional Stock market by 2030. GoAB Medium-Term Development Strategy 2016-2020 Page 100 Goals Key Performance Indicator (KPI) Baseline Data (Year) Target Source Notes Exchange (ECSE) Availability of credit information None in 2015 Operation of a credit bureau by 2020 TBD The establishment of a credit bureau is expected to be spear- headed by the ECCB.
Gender Based violence- Violence Against Women
Child marriage
Antigua and Barbuda
https://docs-lawep.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1694500114623.pdf
https://www.environment.gov.ag/assets/uploads/attachments/c8a8e-goab-medium-term-development-strategy-sept-2015.pdf
Use of labour market information system System not operational prior to 2016 Availability and use of a labour market information system from 2017. Ministry with responsibility for labour Assessment of Labour Market Conditions TBD Increased labour flexibility TBD Competitiveness Conditions in Utility Sector TBD Level of Informality TBD Efficient pricing of utilities.
Gender Based violence- Violence Against Women
Child marriage
Antigua and Barbuda
https://docs-lawep.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1694500114623.pdf
https://www.environment.gov.ag/assets/uploads/attachments/c8a8e-goab-medium-term-development-strategy-sept-2015.pdf
TBD Lower proportion of firm operation informally TBD This will involve qualitative assessment of various aspects of the labour market, including ease of hiring and firing, minimum wage rates and other regulations Assessment to be undertaken that may include comparisons to other countries NC1.6 Adequate infrastructure (roads, ports, energy, water, telecom.
Gender Based violence- Violence Against Women
Child marriage
Antigua and Barbuda
https://docs-lawep.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1694500114623.pdf
https://www.environment.gov.ag/assets/uploads/attachments/c8a8e-goab-medium-term-development-strategy-sept-2015.pdf
and transport) State of road repair and road safety TBD Highways, Secondary roads; Feeder roads Highway 100% in good state by 20209; Secondary roads …% in good state and feeder road …% in good state by 2019. 100% good by 2030 Ministry with responsible for public works An annual assessment will be undertaken and will include considerations with respect to road safety and the adequacy of road furniture.
Gender Based violence- Violence Against Women
Child marriage
Antigua and Barbuda
https://docs-lawep.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1694500114623.pdf
https://www.environment.gov.ag/assets/uploads/attachments/c8a8e-goab-medium-term-development-strategy-sept-2015.pdf