Upload goat_strategy.py

goat_strategy.py

@@ -0,0 +1,282 @@
+"""AlphaForge GOAT Strategy Guide - How to Be the Greatest of All Time
+
+This is not just code. This is your quant trading BIBLE.
+Follow these rules religiously and you will compound wealth.
+Break them and you will blow up. Guaranteed.
+"""
+
+from typing import Dict, List
+import json
+
+# THE GOAT MINDSET - Read This Every Morning
+
+GOAT_MINDSET = """
+THE GOAT MINDSET
+
+1. SURVIVAL FIRST, PROFIT SECOND
+   Your #1 job is NOT to make money. It's to NOT lose money.
+   If you survive, compounding does the rest.
+
+2. PROCESS OVER OUTCOME
+   A bad process with a good result is LUCK.
+   A good process with a bad result is VARIANCE.
+   Judge yourself by your PROCESS, not your PnL today.
+
+3. EDGE COMPOUNDS, LUCK DOESN'T
+   A 0.05 IC doesn't sound like much.
+   But over 252 trading days, it compounds into massive alpha.
+   This is why Two Sigma and Renaissance are worth $100B+.
+
+4. DIVERSIFICATION IS THE ONLY FREE LUNCH
+   Harry Markowitz won a Nobel Prize proving this.
+   Don't fight Nobel Prize winners.
+
+5. YOU ARE YOUR OWN WORST ENEMY
+   Fear makes you sell the bottom.
+   Greed makes you buy the top.
+   AlphaForge removes emotion. Trust the system.
+"""
+
+# THE GOAT RULES - Violate at Your Own Peril
+
+GOAT_RULES = {
+    "risk_management": {
+        "title": "RISK MANAGEMENT - THE ONLY THING THAT MATTERS",
+        "rules": [
+            {
+                "rule": "NEVER risk more than 2% of capital on a single position",
+                "why": "A 2% risk means you can be wrong 50 times in a row and still have 36% left.",
+                "action": "Set max_weight = 0.20 and stop-loss at 10%. 0.20 * 0.10 = 2% max loss."
+            },
+            {
+                "rule": "NEVER risk more than 6% of capital in a single month",
+                "why": "Three 2% losses in a month = 6%. That's your circuit breaker.",
+                "action": "Track monthly PnL. If down 6%, reduce all positions by 50%."
+            },
+            {
+                "rule": "ALWAYS know your maximum drawdown BEFORE you trade",
+                "why": "If you can't handle a 20% drawdown, don't use a strategy with 25% historical max DD.",
+                "action": "Set personal max DD threshold. AlphaForge default: 15%."
+            },
+            {
+                "rule": "NEVER add to a losing position",
+                "why": "Averaging down is how amateurs turn small losses into catastrophes.",
+                "action": "Use fixed position sizes. Never increase size because you're down."
+            },
+            {
+                "rule": "ALWAYS use the Kelly Criterion (fractionally)",
+                "why": "Kelly tells you optimal bet size given your edge. Use HALF Kelly or QUARTER Kelly.",
+                "action": "Kelly % = (Win Rate * Avg Win - Loss Rate * Avg Loss) / Avg Win. Use 25-50% of that."
+            }
+        ]
+    },
+    
+    "position_sizing": {
+        "title": "POSITION SIZING - SIZE IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN TIMING",
+        "rules": [
+            {
+                "rule": "Size by VOLATILITY, not by conviction",
+                "why": "A 'sure thing' in a volatile stock can hurt you more than a 'maybe' in a calm stock.",
+                "action": "Position Size = (Target Risk %) / (Stock Volatility * Stop Loss %)."
+            },
+            {
+                "rule": "INCREASE size when Sharpe is high, DECREASE when Sharpe is low",
+                "why": "Your edge fluctuates. When metrics are hot, press the bet. When cold, shrink.",
+                "action": "Base position = Base * (Current Sharpe / Target Sharpe). Target Sharpe = 1.5."
+            },
+            {
+                "rule": "NEVER go all-in on a single signal",
+                "why": "Even the best signals have drawdowns. Combine multiple uncorrelated signals.",
+                "action": "Minimum 3 uncorrelated alpha sources: Price + Sentiment + Options Flow."
+            },
+            {
+                "rule": "USE volatility targeting for the TOTAL portfolio",
+                "why": "If target vol is 10% but current vol is 20%, you are 2x too risky. Scale down 50%.",
+                "action": "Portfolio Leverage = Target Vol / Current Portfolio Vol. Adjust daily."
+            }
+        ]
+    },
+    
+    "execution": {
+        "title": "EXECUTION - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THEORY AND REALITY",
+        "rules": [
+            {
+                "rule": "ALWAYS account for transaction costs",
+                "why": "At 150% annual turnover and 3bps cost, you lose 0.09% to friction. At 10bps, 0.30%.",
+                "action": "Use low-cost brokers. Avoid frequent rebalancing. Batch orders."
+            },
+            {
+                "rule": "NEVER trade during first/last 15 minutes unless you have to",
+                "why": "Open and close have highest volatility and widest spreads.",
+                "action": "Place orders between 10:30 AM - 3:30 PM EST. Use VWAP for large orders."
+            },
+            {
+                "rule": "ALWAYS use limit orders, NEVER market orders",
+                "why": "Market orders guarantee execution at unknown prices. Limit orders control price. Saves 5-10bps.",
+                "action": "Set limit at mid-price for liquid stocks. 5bps inside spread for illiquid."
+            },
+            {
+                "rule": "NEVER chase a move",
+                "why": "If a stock already moved 2% in 5 minutes, you missed it. Chasing = buying high.",
+                "action": "Set alerts at your entry price. If it never hits, move on. 10,000+ stocks exist."
+            }
+        ]
+    },
+    
+    "psychology": {
+        "title": "PSYCHOLOGY - THE INVISIBLE KILLER",
+        "rules": [
+            {
+                "rule": "NEVER check PnL more than once per day",
+                "why": "Intraday volatility is noise. Checking every minute creates anxiety and impulsive decisions.",
+                "action": "Set a daily alarm for 4 PM. Check then. Close the app. Live your life."
+            },
+            {
+                "rule": "NEVER trade when emotional",
+                "why": "Fear, greed, anger, euphoria - all destroy edge. Your brain can't make rational decisions under strong emotion.",
+                "action": "After a big loss: mandatory 24-hour cooling period. No exceptions."
+            },
+            {
+                "rule": "ALWAYS keep a trading journal",
+                "why": "You think you know why you made each trade. You don't. Writing forces clarity.",
+                "action": "Log: Date, Signal, Size, Rationale, Outcome, Emotion Level (1-10). Review monthly."
+            },
+            {
+                "rule": "NEVER compare yourself to others",
+                "why": "Social media shows winners, not losers. Everyone has drawdowns.",
+                "action": "Your only benchmark is your own track record. Beat your previous self."
+            },
+            {
+                "rule": "ALWAYS sleep well at night",
+                "why": "If you can't sleep because of positions, your risk is too high. Your body is telling you.",
+                "action": "If you lose sleep, close 50% of the position tomorrow. Health > money."
+            }
+        ]
+    },
+    
+    "strategy": {
+        "title": "STRATEGY - THE SCIENCE OF EDGE",
+        "rules": [
+            {
+                "rule": "ALWAYS have at least 3 uncorrelated alpha sources",
+                "why": "Price momentum and mean reversion can be negatively correlated. When one fails, the other works.",
+                "action": "AlphaForge uses: Price Technicals + Sentiment + Options Flow."
+            },
+            {
+                "rule": "NEVER overfit to historical data",
+                "why": "A strategy that perfectly fits the past will fail in the future. Markets change.",
+                "action": "Use walk-forward testing. Never optimize on the test set."
+            },
+            {
+                "rule": "ALWAYS monitor for regime changes",
+                "why": "Strategies that work in bull markets often fail in bear markets.",
+                "action": "Reduce beta in bear markets, increase in bull. AlphaForge detects regimes automatically."
+            },
+            {
+                "rule": "NEVER ignore the base rate",
+                "why": "If SPY goes up 55% of days, any 'long every day' strategy wins 55%. Report ALPHA, not return.",
+                "action": "If alpha < 2%, you are a closet indexer. Just buy SPY."
+            },
+            {
+                "rule": "ALWAYS diversify across time horizons",
+                "why": "Short-term (1-5 days) and long-term (1-3 months) signals have different drawdown periods.",
+                "action": "Run AlphaForge on 5-day, 21-day, and 63-day horizons. Blend 40/30/30."
+            }
+        ]
+    }
+}
+
+# GOAT TIER DEFINITIONS
+GOAT_TIERS = {
+    "NEEDS_WORK": {
+        "range": (0, 40),
+        "emoji": "🔧",
+        "description": "You're learning. Don't trade real money yet.",
+        "advice": [
+            "Paper trade for 6 months minimum",
+            "Focus on risk management above all else",
+            "Read 'A Random Walk Down Wall Street' by Malkiel",
+            "Study the backtest metrics until you dream about Sharpe ratios"
+        ]
+    },
+    "DEVELOPING": {
+        "range": (40, 55),
+        "emoji": "📈",
+        "description": "You have potential. Keep grinding.",
+        "advice": [
+            "Trade with 10% of your intended capital",
+            "Focus on one alpha source until you master it",
+            "Journal every trade religiously",
+            "Review your metrics weekly, not daily"
+        ]
+    },
+    "SOLID_PRO": {
+        "range": (55, 70),
+        "emoji": "💪",
+        "description": "You're making real money. Stay disciplined.",
+        "advice": [
+            "Scale to 50% of intended capital",
+            "Add a second uncorrelated alpha source",
+            "Implement dynamic position sizing based on Sharpe",
+            "Start tracking tax efficiency"
+        ]
+    },
+    "ELITE_QUANT": {
+        "range": (70, 85),
+        "emoji": "⭐",
+        "description": "You're in the top 5% of active managers.",
+        "advice": [
+            "Scale to full capital allocation",
+            "Consider managing money for friends/family",
+            "Add options hedging for tail risk protection",
+            "Document your process for institutional capital"
+        ]
+    },
+    "LEGENDARY_GOAT": {
+        "range": (85, 100),
+        "emoji": "🐐",
+        "description": "You're competing with Renaissance and Two Sigma.",
+        "advice": [
+            "Consider launching a hedge fund",
+            "Hire a risk manager",
+            "Diversify into alternative data sources",
+            "Protect your IP aggressively - this edge won't last forever"
+        ]
+    }
+}
+
+
+def print_goat_mindset():
+    print(GOAT_MINDSET)
+
+
+def print_goat_rules():
+    for section, content in GOAT_RULES.items():
+        print(f"\n{'='*80}")
+        print(f"  {content['title']}")
+        print(f"{'='*80}\n")
+        for i, rule in enumerate(content['rules'], 1):
+            print(f"  {i}. {rule['rule']}")
+            print(f"     WHY: {rule['why']}")
+            print(f"     ACTION: {rule['action']}")
+            print()
+
+
+def get_tier_advice(score: float) -> dict:
+    for tier_name, tier_info in GOAT_TIERS.items():
+        low, high = tier_info['range']
+        if low <= score < high:
+            return {
+                'tier': tier_name,
+                'emoji': tier_info['emoji'],
+                'description': tier_info['description'],
+                'advice': tier_info['advice']
+            }
+    return GOAT_TIERS['LEGENDARY_GOAT']
+
+
+if __name__ == '__main__':
+    print_goat_mindset()
+    print_goat_rules()
+    for tier_name, tier_info in GOAT_TIERS.items():
+        print(f"{tier_info['emoji']} {tier_name}: {tier_info['description']}")