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47f59bf5c3762865a1fa6bfe5b1ce39809ece69523cf01bb9595bcf1eeb64c35 | Russia won’t compromise AND military progress will make Ukraine overconfident, escalating to demands that Russia can’t concede | null | Chris Brown 3/15, foreign correspondent based in the CBC’s London bureau, “Many Ukrainians now believe they can defeat Russia's army, complicating diplomatic negotiations,” CBC, 3/15/2022, https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6384782 | saying peace could be within days are disingenuous and an effort to deflect failure onto Ukraine Putin cannot acknowledge Ukraine being sovereign is obsessed with delusions demand unconditional surrender it's difficult to picture giving back territory it seized yet, for Zelensky , allowing Russia to keep the land would be toxic Ukraine risk overestimating its position and holding out If you see your adversary suffering that encourages you to escalate your own aims Ukrainians talk openly about Crimea I don't think Russia is going to concede | the Russian news agency TASS over the weekend saying peace talks between Ukraine and Russia have made "considerable progress" and that " documents could be signed" within days In response , Ukrainian negotiators said they sensed a shift in the unfounded Russian position also that their own demands were finally being listened to But in interviews with CBC Ukrainian leaders and one former diplomat are putting little faith in talks to stop the war Instead Russian statements that negotiations are progressing are disingenuous — and are more likely an effort to deflect failure to secure a ceasefire onto Ukraine Putin cannot acknowledge any chance for Ukraine being sovereign is obsessed with delusions and hallucinations it's a waste of time trying to figure out what exactly he wants the public position taken by Russian negotiators has been to demand Ukraine's unconditional surrender , along with the removal of Zelensky In any peace negotiation it's difficult to picture Russia giving back the Ukrainian territory it has seized — and yet, for Zelensky , allowing Russia to keep the land would be toxic to a population that's furious with Russia for launching this war the price is so tremendous we are not ready to give up our territory Ukraine runs the risk of overestimating its bargaining position and holding out for a more favourable offer " If you see your adversary suffering and moderating their war aims accordingly, then that in turn encourages you to escalate your own aims and take the fight further Ukrainians now talk openly about having their army not just push Russian troops back to where they were when their invasion began but to recapture Crimea But that anger could obfuscate what could be done reasonably ; I don't think Russia is going to concede Crimea ." | TASS saying peace talks "considerable progress" documents within days response shift unfounded Russian position own demands listened to CBC Ukrainian leaders diplomat little faith in talks to stop the war progressing disingenuous deflect failure Ukraine Putin cannot acknowledge any chance being sovereign obsessed delusions hallucinations waste of time unconditional surrender removal of Zelensky difficult giving back territory it seized Zelensky keep toxic furious with Russia for launching this war price so tremendous not ready give up our territory Ukraine overestimating its bargaining position holding out more favourable offer suffering encourages escalate your own aims further openly just invasion recapture Crimea anger obfuscate reasonably don't think Russia is going to concede Crimea ." | ['The announcement from the Russian news agency TASS over the weekend might have sounded too good to be true for Ukrainians, and for those distraught by the devastation inflicted by Russian bombs and missiles on Ukrainian cities and civilians.', 'It quoted prominent Russian Duma deputy Leonid Slutsky as saying peace talks between Ukraine and Russia have made "considerable progress" and that "documents could be signed" within days.', 'In response, Ukrainian negotiators said they sensed a shift in the utterly unfounded Russian position of its "denazification" and "demilitarization" of Ukraine. They also said they sensed that their own demands were finally being listened to by the Russian officials on the other side of the table.', 'But in interviews with CBC News, Ukrainian leaders and one former Ukrainian diplomat are putting little faith in this current round of talks to stop the war.', 'Instead, they believe Russian statements that negotiations are progressing are, at best, disingenuous — and are more likely an effort to deflect failure to secure a ceasefire onto Ukraine. ', "'Everyone in Ukraine wants peace'", 'They also fear it will take another lengthy period of intense warfare, with a high number of civilian casualties, before the Kremlin is ready to make a deal that Ukraine could accept.', '"Listen, I think Putin was very clear when he explained that he just does not accept the idea of Ukraine," said Andriy Shevchenko, a former Ukrainian MP who served as Ukraine\'s ambassador in Ottawa for six years, until 2021.', "He told CBC News that most Ukrainians see Russian President Vladimir Putin's war of aggression against their nation as an effort to destroy the Ukrainian identity. ", '"I think he cannot acknowledge any chance for Ukraine being a sovereign nation, deciding for itself what kind of future it wants to have," Shevchenko said. "Everyone in Ukraine again badly wants peace, but I think our expectations for these negotiations are very low at the moment." ', 'Shevchenko spoke to CBC News in the western Ukrainian city of Lviv, where he is organizing an international media centre to help share Ukrainian perspectives about the war with the rest of the world. ', "Despite the danger, he continues to travel back and forth to the capital, Kyiv, where his wife is a TV presenter and reports on Ukraine's defence.", '"We are dealing with a man [Putin] who is absolutely obsessed with historical delusions and hallucinations, and I think it\'s just a waste of time trying to figure out what exactly he wants," Shevchenko said. ', "Until now, the public position taken by Russian negotiators has been to demand Ukraine's unconditional surrender, along with the removal of Volodymyr Zelensky as president. ", 'They have also indicated that any future Ukrainian government would have to change its constitution to prohibit it from joining organizations like the European Union or military alliances such as NATO.', 'Russia expected a swift military strike: U.S.', "Few people outside of the Kremlin, however, know exactly what Putin's next steps might be. The country's decision to criminalize publishing information contradictory to the Russian government's position on the war has made it extraordinarily difficult for media to access to it. ", "American intelligence officials, however, believe Russia's original plan was to stage a lightning military strike on the capital Kyiv, capture or kill the Ukrainian president and replace him with a Russian-friendly leader.", "Almost three weeks after the invasion, however, Russia's main military thrust on the capital appears to have stalled. ", 'Beyond Kyiv, its troops have failed to capture most of their key objectives, although the loss of civilian lives and the destruction inflicted on its cities has been horrendous.', 'Much of Kharkiv — a city formerly of 1.3 million people — is in ruins.', 'Mykolaiv and Mariupol to the south have badly damaged by bombing, although Ukrainian soldiers and civilians remaining inside those cities continue to prevent Russian troops from taking over.', 'Ukraine claims it has killed 12,000 Russian soldiers, destroyed almost 400 tanks and shot down 160 aircraft and helicopters, although the Pentagon has estimated its casualties as between 2,000 and 4,000. ', 'While none of those claims have been independently verified, even if the actual Russian losses are a third of what Ukraine says they are they would still represent a humiliating setback for a military that was once touted as one of the strongest in the world.', "Still, for all of the efforts of Ukraine's army, Russian forces have managed to push deep into Ukraine's southern areas, capturing territory around the Sea of Azov and linking up to form what's known as a land bridge with separatist enclaves of Donbas and Luhansk. ", "In any peace negotiation, experts told CBC News that it's difficult to picture Russia giving back the Ukrainian territory it has seized — and yet, for Ukraine's Zelensky, allowing Russia to keep the land would be toxic to a population that's furious with Russia for launching this war.", '"I think the price that we have been paying is so tremendous, is so huge, and we are not ready to give up our territory and our people," Shevchenko said.', "Alexander Lanoszka, an assistant professor of international relations at the University of Waterloo, says Russia's behaviour over the past few days indicates the Kremlin leadership may no longer believe its military can accomplish a takeover of Ukraine, and the Ukrainian side may be correct at sensing some weakness.", 'Why Ukraine might hold out on a deal', 'Russia "is taking battlefield losses; it\'s making unusual requests to China [for military help] as well as asking for Syrian mercenaries and Belarussian military participation, all of which suggests that there\'s a major lack of confidence on the Russian side that they can pull this thing off," Lanoszka said.', 'But he says Ukraine also runs the risk of overestimating its bargaining position and holding out for a more favourable offer — rather than the first that might end the war.', '"If you see your adversary suffering and moderating their war aims accordingly, then that in turn encourages you to escalate your own war aims and to take the fight even further," Lanoszka said.', 'In the aftermath of the 2014 popular revolution in Ukraine that dumped a Russian-leaning government for one that was more pro-European, Russia seized the Ukraine-controlled Crimean Peninsula. The Kremlin also triggered and subsequently fuelled an eight-year war between pro-Russian separatists and the Ukrainian government in the Donetsk region. ', 'Many Ukrainians now talk openly about having their army not just push Russian troops back to where they were when their invasion began on Feb. 24, but to recapture the other Russian-controlled regions too, especially Crimea.', '"They\'re angry and they have every right to be," Lanoszka said. "But that anger could obfuscate what could be done reasonably; I don\'t think Russia is going to concede Crimea."'] | [
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91f255066f7fd02c6f14b38b63f076774691a14460a12abbe5f55ca1144e2f17 | Zero chance regime change ends with pro-Western leadership | null | Csaba Barnabas Horvath 3/13, assistant researcher at the Silk Road Research Group of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, “Was China Betting on Russian Defeat All Along?,” Geopolitical Monitor, 3/13/2022, | if regime change occurs , it is not sure whether it will be elite change as well the second line of leadership simply removes Putin himself however United Russia continue to govern if change is not a inside job Russian opposition parties were not pro-Western but far-right and Communists takeover would end in prolonged civil war | if regime change occurs , it is not at all sure whether it will be an elite change as well . It could easily happen in a way where the second line of Putin’s leadership simply removes Putin himself , putting the blame for their own responsibility in the war on him however , they , and United Russia continue to govern the country if the regime change is not a mere inside r job , but brings down the party and its elite even then , throughout elections during the last decade, the two strongest Russian opposition parties were not pro-Western but Zhirinovsky’s far-right and the Communists . Thus even if the United Russia party falls from power, then most likely it would be either Zhirinovsky , or the Communists , or an alliance that would take over the country, and not some pro-Western government any takeover attempt would likely end up in prolonged turmoil or even civil war | regime change occurs not at all sure elite change well easily second line of Putin’s leadership removes Putin himself own him they United Russia continue to govern the country not mere inside job party elite even then opposition not pro-Western Zhirinovsky’s far-right Communists Zhirinovsky Communists alliance not pro-Western government takeover attempt prolonged turmoil civil war | ['The only major danger for China in case of a Russian defeat is the possibility of a pro-Western regime change. As more time passes with no particular advance of the Russian war effort in Ukraine, more and more discussion raises on the possibility of a possible coup against Vladimir Putin in case the war ends up in an obvious and undeniable fiasco for Russia, as in this case, all the sacrifice Russia had to suffer for the war would be proven to have been in vain. However, there are several factors to be taken into consideration here: First, in case of a Russian fiasco, a regime change is a mere possibility that may or may not happen, while in case of a Russian victory, the virtual reestablishment of the Soviet Empire would be a certainty, therefore, the latter one is a certain evil for China, while in case of a former one, the bad outcome is only a mere possibility for China. Vladimir Putin could very well stay in power, and in that case, a weakened Russia would be the most isolated from the West, thus the most dependent on an alliance with China. Second, even if a regime change occurs, it is not at all sure whether it will be an elite change as well. It could easily happen in a way where the second line of Putin’s leadership simply removes Putin himself, putting the blame for their own responsibility in the war on him as well; however, they, and the United Russia party continue to govern the country. Third, if the regime change is not a mere insider job, but brings down the United Russia party and its elite itself, even then, throughout elections during the last decade, the two strongest Russian opposition parties were not pro-Western parties, but Vladimir Zhirinovsky’s far-right party and the Communists. Thus even if the United Russia party falls from power, then most likely it would be either Zhirinovsky, or the Communists, or an alliance of both that would take over the country, and not some pro-Western government. Fourth, even if somehow some pro-Western group attempts to take control, given the immense support of not only the United Russia party but of the Party of Zhirinovsky and the Communists, public support for anti-Western Russian nationalism seems to be so strong, that any pro-Western takeover attempt would likely end up in prolonged turmoil or even a civil war. This, however, as we will see, would be something that China could take advantage of.'] | [
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6bb4a775c6e96aaf7a5655c4e9f89b3954d93374100fa146e0f8654d2cb2fadf | It'd be a full collapse OR military dictatorship | null | Liana Fix & Michael Kimmage 3/4, Liana Fix is a Resident Fellow at the German Marshall Fund, in Washington, D.C.; Michael Kimmage is Professor of History at the Catholic University of America and a Visiting Fellow at the German Marshall Fund, served on the Policy Planning Staff at the U.S. Department of State, where he held the Russia/Ukraine portfolio, “What If Russia Loses?,” Foreign Affairs, 3/4/2022, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2022-03-04/what-if-russia-loses | a weakened humiliated Russia , harboring revanchist impulses akin to Germany after World War I . If Putin maintains power , Russia will become a pariah with a nuclear arsenal difficult to imagine a liberal Russia emerging Even if Putin loses his grip the country is unlikely to emerge a democracy . It could split Or become a nuclear military dictatorship | The consequences of a Russian loss in Ukraine would present fundamental challenges Assuming Russia will be forced to withdraw a weak Russian control could mean a fractured, destabilized area of continuous fighting The humanitarian catastrophe would be unlike anything in decades No less worrisome is the prospect of a weakened humiliated Russia , harboring revanchist impulses akin to those that festered in Germany after World War I . If Putin maintains his grip on power , Russia will become a pariah a rogue superpower with a chastened conventional military but its nuclear arsenal intact it will be very difficult to imagine a liberal Russia emerging after the horrors of this war. Even if Putin loses his grip on Russia, the country is unlikely to emerge as a pro-Western democracy . It could split apart Or become a nuclear -armed military dictatorship it is immensely difficult to build a stable international order with a revanchist, humiliated power near its center | loss fundamental challenges withdraw weak Russian control fractured, destabilized area continuous fighting humanitarian catastrophe unlike anything decades less weakened humiliated Russia revanchist impulses Germany after World War I maintains power pariah rogue superpower chastened conventional military nuclear arsenal intact very difficult liberal loses grip unlikely to emerge as a pro-Western democracy split apart nuclear -armed military dictatorship immensely difficult stable international order with a revanchist, humiliated power near its center | ['The consequences of a Russian loss in Ukraine would present Europe and the United States with fundamental challenges. Assuming Russia will be forced to withdraw one day, rebuilding Ukraine, with the political goal of welcoming it into the EU and NATO, will be a task of Herculean proportions. And the West must not fail Ukraine again. Alternatively, a weak form of Russian control over Ukraine could mean a fractured, destabilized area of continuous fighting with limited or no governance structures just east of NATO’s border. The humanitarian catastrophe would be unlike anything Europe has seen in decades.', 'No less worrisome is the prospect of a weakened and humiliated Russia, harboring revanchist impulses akin to those that festered in Germany after World War I. If Putin maintains his grip on power, Russia will become a pariah state, a rogue superpower with a chastened conventional military but with its nuclear arsenal intact. The guilt and stain of the Ukraine war will stay with Russian politics for decades; rare is the country that profits from a lost war. The futility of the costs spent on a lost war, the human toll, and the geopolitical decline will define the course of Russia and Russian foreign policy for many years to come, and it will be very difficult to imagine a liberal Russia emerging after the horrors of this war.', 'Even if Putin loses his grip on Russia, the country is unlikely to emerge as a pro-Western democracy. It could split apart, especially in the North Caucasus. Or it could become a nuclear-armed military dictatorship. Policymakers would not be wrong to hope for a better Russia and for the time when a post-Putin Russia could be genuinely integrated into Europe; they should do what they can to enable this eventuality, even as they resist Putin’s war. They would be foolish, however, not to prepare for darker possibilities.', 'History has shown that it is immensely difficult to build a stable international order with a revanchist, humiliated power near its center, especially one of the size and weight of Russia. To do so, the West would have to adopt an approach of continuous isolation and containment. Keeping Russia down and the United States in would become the priority for Europe in such a scenario, as Europe will have to bear the main burden of managing an isolated Russia after a lost war in Ukraine; Washington, for its part, would want to finally focus on China. China, in turn, could try to strengthen its influence over a weakened Russia—leading to exactly the kind of bloc-building and Chinese dominance the West wanted to prevent at the beginning of the 2020s.'] | [
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2ea29fd02dcdb74342c1f8d139a11fdde79be28c9df2a3b46f3a1070a75ed7d4 | If not, it’ll result in a durable military totalitarianism---causes future wars that are worse | null | David Ignatius 3/17, writes a twice-a-week foreign affairs column for The Washington Post, “Watching Russia’s Military Failures Is Exhilarating. But A Cornered Putin Is Dangerous.,” Washington Post, 3/17/2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/03/17/cornered-putin-dangerous-ukraine-david-ignatius/ | Russia will be in disarray after this war But As bad as Putin has been, there are future versions of Russian despotism that could be more destabilizing punitive peace after World War I spawned Nazi Germany Russia is in radical decline the dangers as Russia crumbles may be more ruinous conflict to come | Biden and his allies should begin planning for the endgame Putin doesn’t have a plan but neither does the West Russia will be in disarray after this war , politically and economically. It will be tempting to let that mess fester But beware As bad as Putin has been, there are future versions of Russian despotism that could be even more destabilizing A punitive peace after the horrors of World War I spawned the nightmare of Nazi Germany Russia is in radical decline ; we are watching the second fall of the Soviet Union the dangers as Russia crumbles may be a more ruinous conflict to come | planning for the endgame doesn’t have a plan neither does the West disarray fester beware As bad as Putin has been, there are future versions of Russian despotism that could be even more destabilizing punitive peace World War I spawned the nightmare of Nazi Germany radical decline second fall of the Soviet Union dangers Russia crumbles more ruinous conflict to come | ['— President Biden and his allies should begin planning for the endgame of this war. Putin doesn’t have a plan, but neither does the West. What’s needed is an architecture of security so that neither Russia nor Ukraine feels threatened. Putin kept telling us for 15 years that there was trouble ahead; he meant it. The genius of the leaders of 1945 was that they built a structure for peace: the United Nations; the World Bank; the International Monetary Fund. The world will be rebuilt after this war; this reconstruction needs Russian and Chinese input or it will fail.', '— Russia will be in disarray after this war, politically and economically. It will be tempting to let that mess fester, especially if Russia continues to occupy parts of Ukraine. But beware: As bad as Putin has been, there are future versions of Russian despotism that could be even more destabilizing for Europe. A punitive peace after the horrors of World War I spawned the nightmare of Nazi Germany. Russia is in radical decline; we are watching, in effect, the second fall of the Soviet Union. Beware the dangers as Russia crumbles.', '— The Ukraine war may be just a rehearsal for a more ruinous conflict to come. That was the case with the Russo-Japanese war of 1904-1905; the world assumed that Russia would sweep to a quick victory, but its poor performance prefigured the fall of the czarist monarchy and was in many ways a prelude to World War I. Many of the most hideous features of 1914 had a trial run in 1905.'] | [
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ac64a95be2fa255695035442f00082ed85200c43cd32ccd41cea2c75a69d84c5 | No meltdown risk | null | Stephen Stapczynski & Shoko Oda 3/4, staff writer at Bloomberg, “What We Know About Ukraine’s Shelled Nuclear Plant,” Bloomberg, 3/4/2022, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-04/what-we-know-about-ukraine-s-shelled-nuclear-plant-quicktake | Unlike Chernobyl reactors are pressurized have containment structures Chernobyl did not Unlike Fukushima have separate water circuits also emergency cooling systems and multiple injection systems prevent a core melt shells designed to withstand an aircraft crash not likely will break emergency response should shut the reactors Even if damaged would be contained backup generators won’t spiral | News of attack by Russia on a nuclear power plant sent shudders around the world. But fire was contained and damage was unlikely to result in devastation seen in Chernobyl Unlike Chernobyl , the reactors are pressurized They have containment structures Chernobyl did not Unlike Fukushima VVER reactors have separate water circuits to cool the reactor and to produce steam They also have emergency core cooling systems and multiple injection systems to prevent a core melt The reactors are protected with thick metal and cement shells designed to withstand an aircraft crash it is not likely they will break the buildings emergency response systems should shut the reactors once they sense the vibrations from the attack Even if those were damaged meltdown would be contained as long as there is power -- and backup generators it won’t spiral into a meltdown | fire contained damage unlikely to result in devastation Chernobyl Unlike pressurized containment structures Chernobyl not Fukushima separate water circuits emergency core cooling systems injection systems core melt shells designed aircraft crash not likely break the buildings response systems shut the reactors damaged contained power backup generators won’t spiral | ['News of what Ukrainian officials said was an unprecedented attack by Russia on a nuclear power plant, the largest in Europe, sent shudders around the world. But a fire that broke out at the Zaporizhzhia site in the early hours of March 4 was eventually contained and the damage was unlikely to result in the kind of devastation seen in the last nuclear disaster on Ukrainian soil, the 1986 meltdown at Chernobyl. ', '1. How did the episode start?', 'Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba wrote on Twitter early Friday that a fire had broken out at the plant in southeastern Ukraine after Russian shelling overnight. One shell hit the plant’s first production unit, which was under maintenance, according to the head of Ukraine’s Energoatom nuclear power utility, Petro Kotin. The facility, near the city of Enerhodar, has six reactors and a total capacity of 5.7 gigawatts, enough to power more than 4 million homes.', '2. What was the result?', 'Kuleba had initially warned that an explosion would be 10 times larger than Chernobyl. Emergency services said later they had extinguished the blaze and there were no casualties. No radiation escaped and the integrity of the reactors wasn’t compromised, said Rafael Mariano Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the world’s nuclear watchdog. The plant’s second and third units were put into safe “cold mode” and the fourth remained in operation as it was the most distant from the shelling zone, said Kotin. The reactors are “being protected by robust containment structures,” U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said in a statement. ', '3. What was the response? ', 'Grossi said he was gravely concerned by the situation in Ukraine and had offered to meet Russian and Ukrainian representatives to try to reduce nuclear safety risks. The incident drew condemnation from NATO foreign ministers. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said it was “a crime, nuclear terrorism,” and called for further European Union sanctions against Moscow. Russia’s Defense Ministry said its forces have held the nuclear plant since Feb. 28 and accused Ukraine of a “provocation.”', '4. How does the plant compare to Chernobyl?', 'Unlike Chernobyl, the six reactors at Zaporizhzhia are pressurized water reactors (950 MW VVER-320), built in the early 1980s. They have containment structures around the reactor to stop any release of radiation. “Chernobyl did not have a containment,” said Dale Klein, a former chairman of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and a professor at the University of Texas at Austin. Unlike the damaged Fukushima plant in Japan, these VVER reactors have separate water circuits to cool the reactor and to produce steam, according to Tony Irwin, a nuclear power expert and honorary associate professor at Australian National University. They also have emergency core cooling systems and multiple injection systems to prevent a core melt, he said.', '5. How strong are the containment structures?', 'The reactors are protected with thick metal and cement shells -- the head of Ukraine’s nuclear operator has said they are designed to withstand an aircraft crash. “Depending on what type of artillery shells they are firing, it is not likely they will break out the containment buildings,” Klein said. Nuclear plants are equipped with emergency response systems that should shut the reactors once they sense the vibrations from the attack, according to Mark Nelson, managing director of Radiant Energy Fund, which advises non-profits and industry about nuclear energy. Even if those systems were damaged, the meltdown would likely be contained within the facility.', '6. What about a meltdown?', 'If a nuclear fuel rod isn’t properly cooled and is exposed to air, then it can quickly heat up, begin to melt and release radioactive gases, which is the phenomenon known as a meltdown. But as long as there is power -- and backup diesel generators -- to keep the fuel rods cool, then it won’t spiral into a meltdown like the one that occurred in 2011 at Fukushima, which didn’t have electricity for a prolonged period of time following an earthquake and tsunami. “Multiple backup cooling systems are available and operators have been trained to be able to withstand plausible situations that could occur under any abnormal situation,” said Lake Barrett, a former official at the U.S. NRC who was involved with the cleanup after a partial meltdown at the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant in the U.S. in 1979. “If there is no significant military damage to their multiple redundant safety systems, the reactors should remain in a safe stable state.”'] | [
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5cdcd309635674efe97eea842e81d57c717d9265a5e17b76fbd7b2237e21a5fa | A cornered Putin would use cyber AND chemical weapons | null | Keith Alexander & Donald R. Dixon 3/15, IronNet Co-CEO General (Ret.) Keith Alexander and Forgepoint Capital Co-Founder and Managing Director Donald R. Dixon, “The Russia-Ukraine War: Is cyber the next battleground?,” IronNet, 3/15/22, https://www.ironnet.com/blog/the-russia-ukraine-war-is-cyber-the-next-battleground | if Putin says this isn’t working , where does he go from here? losing would be total humiliation requires a quick win , but stubborn resilience means he must resort to unconventional tactics Acts of desperation give us war beyond the physical which include chemical as well as cyber capabilities are there so far has been minimal Nevertheless could target global entities a new form of warfare can paralyze a country a “ cyber Pearl Harbor | Russia still has overwhelming combat power as Putin’s war continues to go badly for Russia if Putin says this isn’t working , where does he go from here? From Putin’s perspective, losing this war would be total humiliation . He requires a quick win , but stubborn resilience means he must resort to unconventional tactics Putin is scrambling to get anybody he can to help Acts of desperation give us pause about forms of war fare beyond the physical which include chemical as well as cyber capabilities for destructive attacks are there , but will Putin use them? so far has been the cyber impact continues to be minimal and isolated to Ukrainian entities Nevertheless Putin’s cyber to carry out destructive attacks that could target global entities is a new form of warfare Without question can be used to paralyze a nother country ,” a “ cyber Pearl Harbor .” | Russia overwhelming combat power badly for Russia isn’t working where does he go from here? losing total humiliation quick win stubborn resilience unconventional tactics scrambling anybody he can to help desperation pause forms of war fare beyond the physical chemical cyber capabilities are there so far minimal Ukrainian cyber could global new form of warfare question paralyze a country cyber Pearl Harbor | ['As we enter the third week of the Russia-Ukraine war, the resilience of the Ukrainian people and President Zelensky is worthy of the world’s admiration. Unfortunately, Russia still has overwhelming combat power. Many have speculated that Putin’s health may be severely compromised, in turn accelerating “his mission to restore what he considers lost Russian land.”', 'Putin simply doesn’t have the ground force capability to go much further than he already has, especially with his unrehearsed playbook and ill-trained and possibly disengaged troops. Not to mention the impact of swift, global sanctions and the fact that once-supportive Russian oligarchs are doing an about-face. Nevertheless, we suspect this week will continue to be another devastating one for Ukraine as the battle wages on.', "If we were to go back to 22-23 February and take a deep look at Russia’s and Putin’s objectives, it’s fair to say that the world thought Russia had more than sufficient forces to accomplish their early invasion of Ukraine with a fierce eye on overtaking Kyiv. That is, that they were trained and ready. What unfolded, however, was a spectacle on the global stage that demonstrated that Russia clearly was not ready to take over Kyiv (fortunately). They did not train. They didn't have the logistics. The fact that they had made very little progress toward Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Dnipro, moreover, over the last 10 days highlights the fact that lack of preparedness is turning out to be a big problem for Putin. We think the Russians would say it's an embarrassment.", 'Certainly, we are beginning to see signs of fracture within the Russian leadership as Putin’s war continues to go badly for Russia:', 'The battle for Kviv, which many thought would end in three days, could now take more than three weeks with significant cost to Russian forces', 'Limited supply chains and weather are hampering Russian progress', 'Most important, President Zelensky and the Ukrainian people have proven to be willing and more than able to fight for their freedom', 'Two top FSB (Russian internal service) leaders were arrested, allegedly for not providing accurate information on Ukraine prior to the invasion', 'Journalists have been threatened with 15 years in prison for disseminating “false information” as determined by the Russian government', 'When is enough enough in the Russia-Ukraine War? ', "The Ukrainians have proven to be like a buzz-saw to the Russian army, and the Russian military could be taking greater losses presumably than what's in the press. The impact of global sanctions (e.g., a fast-growing list of multi-national companies pulling out of Russia) as well as responsive efforts among the U.S., NATO, and EU to work together have placed increased pressure on Putin, who may also be very sick (physically) as some have asserted. The war is getting to a point where if Putin says this isn’t working, where does he go from here?", "The UK’s Chairman of the Commons Defence Select Committee Tobias Ellwood recently wrote, “From Putin’s perspective, losing this war would be total humiliation. He requires a quick win, but Ukraine’s stubborn resilience means he must resort to unconventional tactics to secure victory.” Right now, Putin is scrambling to get anybody he can to help because he recognizes he doesn't have the force structure he needs to not only take Ukraine but to also hold onto it.", 'The potential for cyberwarfare', 'Acts of desperation give us all pause about forms of warfare beyond the physical domain, which could include chemical as well as cyber. If we go back to recent history, to 2015, we know that Russia, in fact, did cross the cyber-physical barrier. In that case, two electrical distribution companies were shut down, as Russian-backed adversaries did a distributed denial of service attack on the phone system, which prevented people from calling up to find out why their power was out. The capabilities for destructive attacks are there, but will Putin use them?', 'With ongoing attention on possible spillover to the cyber realm, many are asking why the cyber theater so far has been quiet. Overall, the cyber impact continues to be minimal and primarily isolated to Ukrainian entities. Perhaps Putin’s cyber forces are completely engaged in the Ukraine, helping with intelligence and ongoing Russian tactical operations. Nevertheless, all are on guard for Putin’s potential use of cyber to carry out destructive attacks that could target global entities, especially across the financial and energy sectors. Indeed, cyber is a new form of warfare. Former Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta suggests the same, “The reality is that cyber is today a weapon of war. Without question, it can be used to paralyze another country,” who added that we could be facing a “cyber Pearl Harbor.”'] | [
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6f8838cc8fb878096d161b8c51aa33c08d20dc7fc328c80e7ef9a64f1b9ce33d | It fits their broader strategy of escalate-to-deescalate---consensus of experts | null | Anthony Faiola 3/15, foreign affiars columnist at the Washington Post, citing Matthew Kroenig, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, “Why Putin’s nuclear threat could be more than bluster,” Washington Post, 3/15/22, | if boxed in Putin could use one in Ukraine the highest risk if the resistance in Ukraine shifts toward triumph , and Moscow is seen to be losing I find it hard to imagine Putin accepting defeat without nuclear weapons would fit escalate to de-escalate bringing a crisis to climax could nuke a ship a airplane The risk is higher than the West think might see deployment as unimaginable But don’t think it’s unimaginable for Putin there’s a cultural difference Russians finish military exercises with nuclear strikes there is comfort with nuc s as big artillery | The world might reel in horror at nuclear deployment of any size if boxed in some argue Putin could use one in Ukraine without triggering World War III this might not be a question of sanity , but perspective Putin dwells in a “ moral sphere the rest of us would find impossible to conceive he finds the highest risk of Putin deploying a nuclear device if the against-the-odds resistance in Ukraine shifts toward triumph , and Moscow is seen to be decisively losing “ I find it hard to imagine Putin accepting military defeat without trying to use nuclear weapons he sees nuclear use as more attractive than accepting defeat if Putin went nuclear, he would almost certainly deploy a low-yield weapon with a narrow target. That would fit a Russian military strategy of escalate to de-escalate bringing a crisis to dramatic climax to force a settlement “They could nuke a ship nuke a Ukrainian airplane could nuke tanks on the ground But the message would be ‘Oh my God, he’s just used a nuclear weapon Putin would be hoping we’d say, ‘this has gone too far. We’ve got to sue for peace The risk is higher than the West think experts say . In the mind-set of Putin’s government , a nuclear option may not seem taboo The West might see nuclear deployment as unimaginable ; that such weapons exist only for deterrent. But don’t think it’s so unimaginable for Putin and for the Russians there’s a big cultural difference The Russians often finish their military exercises ,” which serve as war simulations , “ with nuclear strikes there is just a comfort with nuc lear weapon s as big artillery shells , whereas we see them as categorically different | reel in horror nuclear deployment of any size boxed in some argue use one in Ukraine without World War III sanity perspective moral sphere rest of us impossible to conceive highest risk nuclear device against-the-odds resistance in Ukraine triumph decisively losing hard to imagine Putin accepting military defeat without trying to use nuclear weapons nuclear use more attractive than accepting defeat fit escalate to de-escalate dramatic climax force a settlement nuke ship Ukrainian airplane tanks on the ground message ‘Oh my God, he’s just used a nuclear weapon hoping peace higher than the West think experts say Putin’s government taboo West unimaginable don’t think Putin Russians cultural difference finish their military exercises simulations with nuclear strikes comfort nuc s big artillery shells we categorically different | ['The Russians are thought to have roughly 2,000 such weapons — some so small as to be attached to torpedoes, depth charges, or even artillery shells and land mines. The world might reel in horror at nuclear deployment of any size. But, if boxed into the right kind of corner, some argue, Putin could use one in Ukraine without necessarily triggering World War III.', 'Putin has already raised the alert level of Moscow’s nuclear forces. Washington has downplayed the prospect of Russian nuclear deployment, suggesting it’s just Kremlin bluster. But on Monday, United Nations Secretary General António Guterres articulated a dangerous truth: “The prospect of nuclear conflict, once unthinkable, is now back within the realm of possibility,” he told reporters.', 'Plenty of observers believe Putin would not risk even a low-grade nuclear attack. Doing so could trigger deeper sanctions than the ones already crippling the Russian economy, increase war opposition at home, negatively impact his all-important alliance with the Chinese and change perceptions in nations still hedging their bets with Russia, including India, Brazil and South Africa.', 'Still, this might not be a question of sanity, but perspective. As Michael Gove, a senior British official, reasoned this week, Putin dwells in a “moral sphere the rest of us would find almost impossible to conceive of.”', 'Talk to Matthew Kroenig, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, and it only adds to the jitters of simulating nuclear strikes on the Nukemap site. He told me this week that he finds the highest risk of Putin deploying a low-yield nuclear device if the against-the-odds resistance in Ukraine shifts toward triumph, and Moscow is seen to be decisively losing the war.', '“I find it hard to imagine Putin accepting a complete military defeat without him trying to use nuclear weapons first,” Kroenig said. “I think he sees limited nuclear use as more attractive than accepting defeat.”', 'He suggested if Putin went nuclear, he would almost certainly deploy a low-yield weapon with a narrow target. That would fit with what some experts view as a Russian military strategy of escalate to de-escalate — or bringing a crisis to dramatic climax to force a settlement with the West that leans toward Russian terms.', '“They could nuke a ship in the Black Sea, they could nuke a Ukrainian airplane, they could nuke tanks on the ground,” he continued. “They could nuke a small city, although that is probably less likely, and it’s less escalatory to go after a military target than a civilian one.”', '“But the message in the West would be, ‘Oh my God, he’s just used a nuclear weapon.’ I mean, at least that’s what Putin would be hoping for. That we’d say, ‘this has gone too far. We’ve got to sue for peace,’ ” he said.', 'The risk is higher than the West might think, some experts say. In the mind-set of Putin’s government, a nuclear option may not seem as taboo as it does to Western observers. During his 2018 state of the nation address, Putin, to loud applause, aired a concept video showing a storm of hypersonic, unlimited range nuclear missiles raining down on Florida.', 'The West might see nuclear deployment as unimaginable; that such weapons exist only for deterrent. But “I don’t think it’s so unimaginable for Putin and for the Russians,” Kroenig said. “I do think that there’s a big cultural difference here. The Russians often finish their major military exercises,” which serve as war simulations, “with nuclear strikes. … I think there is just, you know, a comfort with nuclear weapons as kind of big artillery shells, whereas we see them as categorically different weapons.”'] | [
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2ea9840be628542ad7c44da0f13cab9e615acf57aaa2ed74a645924eb7b14520 | That triggers escalating Western response---war games, former Russian diplomats, AND official posture agree that goes nuclear | null | Harry J. Kazianis 2/27, senior director at the Center for the National Interest, “Yes, Russia could use nuclear weapons,” Spectator World, 2/27/2022, https://spectatorworld.com/topic/russia-use-nuclear-weapons-nato-ukraine/ | a Russian diplomat told Russia believe in escalating to deescalate wargame s for years assume Russia use t n w s But NATO is not itching to attack territory my Russian colleague explained if anything threatens ability to exist we use nuc s Putin is close to his redlines like a caged animal will strike back if we apply too much pressure using nuc s sanctions were the triggers to flex nuclear muscles may decide scorched earth at any cost is better than taking months The carnage akin to World War II The world would be horrified weapons would flow on a grand scale More sanctions follow Russia’s ability to exist , would be threatened Putin would escalate to deescalate horrible for all | RUSSIA COULD USE NUCLEAR WEAPONS Nuclear war is part of our strategic culture . Yes, we would start one if our homeland was threatened a Russian diplomat told me Russia for several years has believe d in the concept of escalating nuclear tensions to deescalate tensions , or what defense scholars call “escalate to deescalate.” The thinking goes that if Moscow’s under threat by overwhelming conventional force Russia reserved the right to respond with t n w s , or more , as Moscow has no way to win a conventional war in wargame simulation s for years we always assume Russia would use t n w s if a war ever did break out. But such thinking leaves a lot of ground uncovered . NATO is not itching for a fight with Moscow or to attack its territory my Russian colleague in what other situations Russia would use nuclear weapons, if any . He explained that “ if anything threatens our ability to exist as a nation and prosper we would use nuc lear weapon s I didn’t believe him then, but I do now. Putin is trying to tell us in no uncertain terms that we are coming close to his geopolitical redlines and , like a caged animal , he will strike back if we apply too much pressure . That could even mean using nuc lear weapon s sanctions that have targeted Russian banks and their access to SWIFT were surely the triggers for Putin to flex his nuclear muscles Putin may decide to truly go all in against Kyiv, determining that a scorched earth policy and winning at any cost is better than taking months to take the country in full . The level of carnage we would see would be akin to World War II The world would be horrified weapons would flow into Ukraine on a grand scale More sanctions follow Russia’s way of life , its ability to exist , would be threatened . The Putin regime would be threatened would escalate to deescalate could mean something horrible for all of us | USE NUCLEAR WEAPONS part of our strategic culture would start one homeland threatened Russian diplomat years believe escalating nuclear deescalate tensions thinking under threat overwhelming conventional force reserved respond t n w s more no way to win a conventional war wargame s years assume would use t n w s lot of ground uncovered not itching for a fight with Moscow attack its territory other any if anything threatens our ability to exist as a nation and prosper would use nuc s I didn’t believe him then, but I do now. close to his geopolitical redlines and caged animal strike back too much pressure using nuc s sanctions Russian banks SWIFT surely the triggers flex his nuclear muscles truly go all in scorched earth policy winning at any cost better months full carnage World War II horrified weapons Ukraine grand scale sanctions way of life ability to exist threatened regime would be threatened escalate to deescalate horrible for all of us | ['YES, RUSSIA COULD USE NUCLEAR WEAPONS', '“Nuclear war is part of our strategic culture. Yes, we would start one if our homeland, our way of life, was threatened, absolutely. Why wouldn’t we?” ', 'That’s what a retired Russian diplomat told me on the sidelines of a track-two dialogue between US, Russian and Chinese experts back in 2012. And to be honest, for several years, I didn’t believe him. I took his comments as bragging, atomic machismo, if you will. ', 'The context of the conversation was a response to a question to my Russian colleague on the subject of Moscow’s nuclear weapons doctrine and thinking. Russia for several years has believed in the concept of escalating nuclear tensions to deescalate tensions, or what defense scholars call “escalate to deescalate.” ', 'The thinking goes that if Moscow’s actual territory was under threat by overwhelming conventional force — think a NATO attack — then Russia reserved the right to respond with tactical nuclear weapons, or more, as Moscow has no way to win a long-term conventional war against NATO forces. ', 'In fact, in wargame simulations I have participated in for several years now, we always assume that Russia would use tactical nuclear weapons against NATO if a war ever did break out. ', 'But such thinking leaves a lot of ground uncovered. NATO is not exactly itching for a fight with Moscow or to attack its territory, even with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine still unfolding. ', 'Back in 2012, I pressed my Russian colleague, asking in what other situations Russia would use nuclear weapons, if any. He explained that “if anything threatens our ability to exist as a nation and prosper, it is my view that we would use nuclear weapons.” ', 'I didn’t believe him then, but I do now. ', 'With Russian President Vladimir Putin now putting his nation’s nuclear forces on alert status, Moscow is signaling to us that recent arms shipments, sanctions, lashings in the media, and pressure placed on the Putin government are rattling nerves.', 'Putin is trying to tell us in no uncertain terms that we are coming close to his geopolitical redlines and, like a caged animal, he will strike back if we apply too much pressure. That could even mean using nuclear weapons. ', 'Recent sanctions that have targeted Russian banks and their access to the SWIFT messaging network were surely the triggers for Putin to flex his nuclear muscles. With ten Russian banks now essentially locked out of global markets and Moscow’s Central Bank limited in how it can use its $600 billion dollars in foreign exchange reserves, Putin is now facing what could be a financial crisis on par with what Boris Yeltsin faced in 1998, when the Russian economy nearly collapsed. ', 'The good news, if there is any, is that peace talks seem to be underway whereby both sides could come to some sort of agreement to end hostilities. Ukraine, for example, could make a formal pledge not to join NATO in name only, but so tightly knit itself to the alliance and the EU that Russia would think twice about a second invasion. Russia may accept that, knowing its forces would need at this point to rely on heavy weapons, large-scale bombing, hundreds more missile strikes, and much more overall force to truly take over Ukraine. ', 'But here is where things could go from bad to worse. If both sides can’t come to a deal, Putin may decide to truly go all in against Kyiv, determining that a scorched earth policy and winning at any cost is better than taking weeks or months to take the country in full. The level of carnage we would see would be something akin to images from World War II: bombed-out cities, bodies on the streets, and total carnage everywhere. 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5efdd83e47252380108cbcfddd8248bdd2e2874c05e2f1350cdb08cdac2d022b | Crisis comms are defunct---there are no checks on escalation | null | Miles A. Pomper 3/10, Senior Fellow, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Middlebury, “Would Putin use nuclear weapons? An arms control expert explains what has and hasn't changed since the invasion of Ukraine,” Conversation, 3/10/2022, https://theconversation.com/would-putin-use-nuclear-weapons-an-arms-control-expert-explains-what-has-and-hasnt-changed-since-the-invasion-of-ukraine-178509 | Arms control has been declining Russia embarked on ambitious modernization some fall outside New START cyber a sat s loom A i and hypersonic tech could shorten warning times Russia deploying missiles that carry both conventional and nuclear sowing confusion worries missile defense prevent nuclear response Strategic Stability Dialogue has been suspended have shaken the rickety strategic security architecture | Arms control has been declining Russia embarked on an ambitious nuclear weapons modernization program, and some of its exotic new strategic weapon systems fall outside of New START ’s restrictions . cyber attacks and a nti- sat ellite weapon s loom A i and hypersonic tech could shorten warning times Russia has been deploying missiles that can carry both conventional and nuclear warheads, sowing confusion . And Russia worries that U.S. missile defense systems prevent an effective Russian nuclear response Before the Ukraine war, Biden and Putin had launched a Strategic Stability Dialogue to tackle these issues But the dialogue has been suspended with the outbreak of hostilities Putin’s recent moves have further shaken the rickety strategic security architecture . With the war underway, Putin announced an “enhanced combat alert” of the country’s nuclear forces | declining Russia modernization outside of New START cyber a sat s loom A i hypersonic tech shorten warning times deploying missiles both and confusion missile defense prevent effective Russian nuclear response Strategic Stability Dialogue tackle these issues suspended hostilities further shaken the rickety strategic security architecture . nuclear forces | ['New challenges for an aging system', 'Inspections under the INF treaty ended in 2001 after the last banned missiles were removed from deployment. Under the Obama and Trump administrations, the U.S. accused Russia of violating the treaty by developing, testing and deploying cruise missiles that exceeded its 500-kilometer limit, an accusation Russia rejected. Backed by NATO allies, the Trump administration withdrew from the treaty in 2019. This left long-range strategic weapons as the only nuclear weapons subject to arms control agreements.', 'Shorter-range non-strategic nuclear weapons – those with a range of less than 500 kilometers, or roughly 310 miles – have never been covered by any agreement, a sore point with Washington and NATO allies because Moscow possesses far more of them than NATO does.', 'Arms control has been declining in other ways as well. Russia has embarked on an ambitious nuclear weapons modernization program, and some of its exotic new strategic weapon systems fall outside of New START’s restrictions. Meanwhile, cyberattacks and anti-satellite weapons loom as new threats to arms control monitoring and nuclear command and control systems.', 'Artificial intelligence and hypersonic missile technology could shorten the warning times for a nuclear attack. Russia has been deploying missiles that can carry both conventional and nuclear warheads, sowing confusion. And Russia worries that U.S. missile defense systems, especially in Europe, threaten strategic stability by permitting the U.S. to carry out a nuclear first strike and then prevent an effective Russian nuclear response.', 'Before the Ukraine war, Biden and Putin had launched a Strategic Stability Dialogue to tackle these issues and lay the groundwork for negotiations on a replacement for New START before it expires in 2026. But the dialogue has been suspended with the outbreak of hostilities, and it is difficult to foresee when it might resume.', 'Putin turns up the heat – but not to a boil', 'Putin’s recent moves have further shaken the rickety strategic security architecture. On the eve of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, he said that “anyone who tries to interfere with us … must know that Russia’s response will be immediate and will lead you to such consequences as you have never before experienced in your history” and that Russia possesses “certain advantages in a number of the latest types of weapons.”', 'With the war underway, Putin announced an “enhanced combat alert” of the country’s nuclear forces, which is not a regular alert level in Russia’s system comparable to the U.S.‘s DEFCON status. In practice, the enhanced combat alert consisted largely of adding staff to shifts at relevant nuclear weapon sites. The announcement was designed to discourage NATO from intervening and to intimidate Ukraine.'] | [
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f1a75c13a8696615c04f63478e633c5b85b69480d5d3761316f98d8a9969a3f8 | Growth is unsustainable and innovation can’t solve---degrowth spurred by crisis is the only chance to avoid extinction | null | Thomas Wiedmann et al. 20, Thomas Wiedmann, Sustainability Assessment Program, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, UNSW Sydney; Manfred Lenzen, ISA, School of Physics, The University of Sydney; Lorenz T. Keyßer, Institute for Environmental Decisions, Department of Environmental Systems Science; Julia K. Steinberger, Sustainability Research Institute (SRI), School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, “Scientists’ Warning on Affluence,” Nature Communications, vol. 11, no. 1, 1, Nature Publishing Group, 06/19/2020, p. 3107 | growth increased resource use and emissions more rapidly than reduced through tech cultures inhibit necessary change scientists’ warn of degradation to life-sustaining functions failed solutions pose existential threats Holistic studies involve life-cycle assessment not only count direct but also indirect impacts along global supply chains because outsourcing undermine abatement on CO2 materials pollution , biod nitrogen water or energy Many studies yield clear ev that consumption is the strongest determinant dwarfing other s Absolute decoupling, let alone Kuznets does not occur growth have outrun tech for the world as well as individual countries The overwhelming ev is tech face an uphill battle To avoid irreversible damage will need global rapid decoupling highly unlikely rapid enough at scale renewable energy carbon-captur and services require metals , concrete and land extraction tech limit s and rebound s aggravate the problem need to be addressed by reducing consumption, not just greening necessary for wider change movements can bring social tipping points through reinforcing feedbacks and create windows of opportunity from crises the digital rev While driving transformation remained coupled sustaining intensive patterns needed are solutions at the systems level A debate in society | worldwide growth in affluence has increased resource use and emissions far more rapidly than reduced through tech affluent citizens are responsible for most environmental impacts Any transition towards sustainability can only be effective if far-reaching lifestyle changes complement technological advancements existing societies, economies and cultures incite expansion and the structural imperative for growth inhibit s necessary societal change scientists’ warn ings confirm alarming trends of environmental degradation leading to profound changes in essential life-sustaining functions humanity has failed to find lasting solutions to these changes that pose existential threats consumption of affluent households worldwide is by far the strongest determinant and strongest accelerator of increases of global environmental and social impacts Holistic studies of the environmental or social consequences of consumption usually involve the use of life-cycle assessment or input-output analysis that do not only ac count for direct on-site, within-territory but importantly also include indirect impacts occurring along global and complete supply chains 8 use of such methods is important, because failing to detect the outsourcing of indirect impacts has the potential to seriously undermine global environmental abatement efforts The implications of consumption on scarce energy resources was confirmed by many consumption -based analyses on indicators as varied as CO2 raw materials pollution , biod iversity, nitrogen scarce water use or energy Many of these studies employed multiple regression yield ing clear ev idence that consumption is by far the strongest determinant of global impacts, dwarfing other socio-economic–demographic factor s such as age, household size, qualification or dwelling structure Whilst the strength of the proportionality between consumption and impact decreases slightly towards higher incomes (measured by so-called elasticities), consumption was found to be a consistently positive driver the impact in tensity of consumption decreases, but absolute impacts increase towards higher consumption . Absolute decoupling, let alone an inverted-U-type Kuznets relationship , does not occur For some social indicators, causal associations between consumption and impact are weak or non-existent. For example, withdrawing consumption from countries with unequal wages, child labour, corruption or severe occupational hazards may not influence those conditions, and might even exacerbate social problems. consumption growth have mostly outrun any beneficial effects of changes in tech nology over the past few decades results hold for the entire world as well as for numerous individual countries The overwhelming ev idence is that globally , burgeoning consumption has diminished or cancelled out gains Furthermore, low-income groups are rapidly occupying middle- and high-income brackets around the world. This can further exacerbate the impacts of mobility-related consumption, which has been shown to disproportionately increase with income the elasticity is larger than one This means that if consumption is not addressed tech nological solutions will face an uphill battle they not only have to bring about reductions of impact but will also need to counteract the effects of growing consumption and affluence To avoid further deterioration and irreversible damage there will need to be a global and rapid decoupling it is highly unlikely that such will occur rapid ly enough at global scale and for other environmental impacts because renewable energy , electrification carbon-captur ing technologies and even services all have resource require ments, mostly in the form of metals , concrete and land 31 Rising energy demand and costs of resource extraction tech nical limit ation s and rebound effect s aggravate the problem 28 policy makers have to acknowledge the fact that addressing environmental breakdown may require a downscaling of production and consumption Since the level of consumption determines total impacts, affluence need s to be addressed by reducing consumption, not just greening it prevailing capitalist, growth-driven economic systems have not only increased affluence but have led to enormous increases in inequality , financial instability , resource consumption and environmental pressures in the affluent countries a persistent, deep and widespread reduction of consumption and production would reduce economic growth as measured by GDP In response drivers of affluence Degrowth defined as “an equitable downscaling of throughput with a concomitant securing of wellbeing aimed at a subsequent downscaled steady-state economic system that is socially just and in balance with ecological limits. does not aim for a reduction of GDP per se, but rather accepts it as a likely outcome of the necessary changes78 transition initiatives prefigur the transformation as well as cultural and value changes a necessary precondition for wider radical change It is important to recognise the pivotal role of movements in this process, which can bring forward social tipping points through complex reinforcing feedbacks and create windows of opportunity from crises Long-term and concurrent human and planetary wellbeing will not be achieved if affluent overconsumption continues, spurred by economic systems that exploit nature international trade mechanisms allow the rich world to displace its impact to the global poor. Not only can a sufficient decoupling of environmental and detrimental social impacts from economic growth not be achieved by technological innovation alone, but also the profit-driven mechanism of prevailing economic systems prevents the necessary reduction of impacts and resource utilisation per se. the digital rev olution —and more broadly the Fourth Industrial Revolution (FIR) with converging, step-change innovations in digital technology, artificial intelligence, Internet of Things, 3D- printing, biotechnology and nanotechnology—has been touted as an enabler of absolute decoupling While digitalisation is already a key driving force in societal transformation , it has so far led to more consumption and inequality and remained coupled with the indirect use of energy and materials, therefore sustaining resource- intensive and greenhouse-gas growth patterns While the digital revolution undoubtedly increases labour productivity it remains to be seen whether the same is true for resource productivity Even if the FIR were to achieve absolute decoupling, this would come at a potentially high risk for privacy, liberty, data sovereignty, civic rights, security, equality and democracy What is needed are convincing and viable solutions at the systems level A wide debate in society is necessary The necessary alternative futures need to be envisioned and shared | affluence increased resource use emissions far more rapidly reduced tech most environmental impacts only be effective far-reaching lifestyle changes expansion imperative for growth inhibit warn degradation life-sustaining functions failed existential threats affluent strongest determinant strongest accelerator Holistic life-cycle only count direct indirect global complete supply chains failing outsourcing undermine global environmental abatement efforts CO2 materials pollution biod nitrogen water energy Many studies yield clear ev strongest determinant dwarfing other s consistently positive driver absolute increase higher consumption Absolute alone inverted-U-type Kuznets relationship not occur exacerbate outrun any beneficial effects tech entire world individual countries overwhelming ev globally diminished cancelled out gains middle- and high-income brackets further exacerbate increase with income larger than one consumption tech face an uphill battle counteract further deterioration irreversible damage global and rapid decoupling highly unlikely rapid enough global scale renewable electrification carbon-captur services require metals concrete land energy demand extraction tech limit s rebound s aggravate downscaling of production and consumption consumption need reducing not just greening it inequality instability resource consumption environmental pressures reduce economic growth GDP drivers Degrowth steady-state economic system socially just balance transition initiatives prefigur transformation cultural value changes precondition movements social tipping points complex reinforcing feedbacks windows of opportunity crises not be achieved exploit nature growth not be achieved prevents necessary reduction of impacts and resource utilisation digital rev touted enabler of absolute decoupling transformation more consumption and inequality remained coupled sustaining resource- intensive and greenhouse-gas growth patterns labour resource needed convincing and viable solutions at the systems level debate in society alternative futures envisioned shared | ['Abstract', 'For over half a century, worldwide growth in affluence has continuously increased resource use and pollutant emissions far more rapidly than these have been reduced through better technology. The affluent citizens of the world are responsible for most environmental impacts and are central to any future prospect of retreating to safer environmental conditions. We summarise the evidence and present possible solution approaches. Any transition towards sustainability can only be effective if far-reaching lifestyle changes complement technological advancements. However, existing societies, economies and cultures incite consumption expansion and the structural imperative for growth in competitive market economies inhibits necessary societal change.', 'Introduction', 'Recent scientists’ warnings confirm alarming trends of environmental degradation from human activity, leading to profound changes in essential life-sustaining functions of planet Earth1,2,3. The warnings surmise that humanity has failed to find lasting solutions to these changes that pose existential threats to natural systems, economies and societies and call for action by governments and individuals.', 'The warnings aptly describe the problems, identify population, economic growth and affluence as drivers of unsustainable trends and acknowledge that humanity needs to reassess the role of growth-oriented economies and the pursuit of affluence1,2. However, they fall short of clearly identifying the underlying forces of overconsumption and of spelling out the measures that are needed to tackle the overwhelming power of consumption and the economic growth paradigm4.', 'This perspective synthesises existing knowledge and recommendations from the scientific community. We provide evidence from the literature that consumption of affluent households worldwide is by far the strongest determinant and the strongest accelerator of increases of global environmental and social impacts. We describe the systemic drivers of affluent overconsumption and synthesise the literature that provides possible solutions by reforming or changing economic systems. These solution approaches range from reformist to radical ideas, including degrowth, eco-socialism and eco-anarchism. Based on these insights, we distil recommendations for further research in the final section.', 'Affluence as a driver of environmental and social impacts', 'The link between consumption and impacts', 'There exists a large body of literature in which the relationship between environmental, resource and social impacts on one hand, and possible explanatory variables on the other, is investigated. We review and summarise those studies that holistically assess the impact of human activities, in the sense that impacts are not restricted to the home, city, or territory of the individuals, but instead are counted irrespective of where they occur. Such an assessment perspective is usually referred to as consumption-based accounting, or footprinting5.', 'Allocating environmental impacts to consumers is consistent with the perspective that consumers are the ultimate drivers of production, with their purchasing decisions setting in motion a series of trade transactions and production activities, rippling along complex international supply-chain networks5. However, allocating impacts to consumers does not necessarily imply a systemic causal understanding of which actor should be held most responsible for these impacts. Responsibility may lie with the consumer or with an external actor, like the state, or in structural relations between actors. Scholars of sustainable consumption have shown that consumers often have little control over environmentally damaging decisions along supply chains6, however they often do have control over making a consumption decision in the first place. Whilst in Keynesian-type economics consumer demand drives production, Marxian political economics as well as environmental sociology views the economy as supply dominated7. In this paper, we highlight the measurement of environmental impacts of consumption, while noting that multiple actors bear responsibility.', 'Holistic studies of the environmental or social consequences of consumption usually involve the use of life-cycle assessment or input-output analysis that do not only account for direct (on-site, within-territory) but importantly also include indirect impacts occurring along global and complete supply chains8,9. The use of such methods is important, because failing to detect the outsourcing of indirect impacts (also called spill overs or leakage) has the potential to seriously undermine global environmental abatement efforts, e.g. on climate change10.', 'A significant proportionality between consumption and impact exists for a large range of environmental, resource and social indicators. The implications of consumption on scarce energy resources emerged already in the 1970s and was confirmed by many consumption-based analyses on indicators as varied as CO2 emissions, raw materials, air pollution, biodiversity, nitrogen emissions, scarce water use or energy5,11. Many of these studies employed multiple regression or similar techniques, yielding clear evidence for our first finding: that consumption is by far the strongest determinant of global impacts, dwarfing other socio-economic–demographic factors such as age, household size, qualification or dwelling structure12,13,14,15. Whilst the strength of the proportionality between consumption and impact decreases slightly towards higher incomes (measured by so-called elasticities), consumption was found to be a consistently positive driver. In other words, the impact intensity of consumption decreases, but absolute impacts increase towards higher consumption. Absolute decoupling, let alone an inverted-U-type Kuznets relationship, does not occur from a consumption-based accounting perspective11,16,17.', 'For some social indicators, causal associations between consumption and impact are weak or non-existent. For example, withdrawing consumption from countries with unequal wages, child labour, corruption or severe occupational hazards may not influence those conditions, and might even exacerbate social problems. Footprint studies on these indicators nevertheless characterise consumers of commodities from socially problematic origins as being implicated with detrimental impacts9,18,19,20.', 'Trends', 'Many indicators of global environmental and social impacts have been monitored over time, and time series data exist5. Numerous global studies decomposing time series of footprints of consumption into drivers of trends have been carried out over the past decades, for example on greenhouse-gas emissions, energy use, water use, materials or mercury emissions. These studies routinely decompose global impact trends into effects due to changes in a number of factors, such as technology, the input structure of production, the product mix in consumer demand, the level of per-capita consumption or population21.', 'The majority of studies agree that by far the major drivers of global impacts are technological change and per-capita consumption11. Whilst the former acts as a more or less strong retardant, the latter is a strong accelerator of global environmental impact. Remarkably, consumption (and to a lesser extent population) growth have mostly outrun any beneficial effects of changes in technology over the past few decades. These results hold for the entire world22,23 as well as for numerous individual countries11,24,25,26. Figure 1 shows the example of changes in global-material footprint and greenhouse-gas emissions compared to GDP over time. The overwhelming evidence from decomposition studies is that globally, burgeoning consumption has diminished or cancelled out any gains brought about by technological change aimed at reducing environmental impact11.', '', '', 'Shown is how the global material footprint (MF, equal to global raw material extraction) and global CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and industrial processes (CO2 FFI) changed compared with global GDP (constant 2010 USD). Indexed to 1 in 1990. Data sources: https://www.resourcepanel.org/global-material-flows-database, http://www.globalcarbonatlas.org and https://data.worldbank.org.', 'Furthermore, low-income groups are rapidly occupying middle- and high-income brackets around the world. This can potentially further exacerbate the impacts of mobility-related consumption, which has been shown to disproportionately increase with income (i.e. the elasticity is larger than one27). This means that if consumption is not addressed in future efforts for mitigating environmental impact, technological solutions will face an uphill battle, in that they not only have to bring about reductions of impact but will also need to counteract the effects of growing consumption and affluence28,29.', 'To avoid further deterioration and irreversible damage to natural and societal systems, there will need to be a global and rapid decoupling of detrimental impacts from economic activity. Whilst a number of countries in the global North have recently managed to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions while still growing their economies30, it is highly unlikely that such decoupling will occur more widely in the near future, rapidly enough at global scale and for other environmental impacts11,17. This is because renewable energy, electrification, carbon-capturing technologies and even services all have resource requirements, mostly in the form of metals, concrete and land31. Rising energy demand and costs of resource extraction, technical limitations and rebound effects aggravate the problem28,32,33. It has therefore been argued that “policy makers have to acknowledge the fact that addressing environmental breakdown may require a direct downscaling of economic production and consumption in the wealthiest countries”17,p.5. We will address this argument in the section on systemic drivers and possible solutions.', 'International disparities', 'In what follows, we will explain why we characterise consumption as affluence. Inequality is commonly described by the Gini index, with 0 characterising total equality (all individuals equal) and 100 representing total inequality (one individual owning everything). World countries’ Gini indices of income inequality range between 25 (Scandinavia) and 63 (Southern Africa)34. The world’s Gini index of income inequality is around 75, higher than the corresponding index of any national population. Simply put, the world as a whole is more unequal than any individual country.', 'Since income is strongly linked with consumption, and consumption is in turn linked with impact (see previous section), we can expect existing income inequalities to translate into equally significant impact inequalities. Indeed, environmental, resource and social impacts are exerted unequally across the world population. Teixido-Figueras et al.35 report that international Gini coefficients for CO2 emissions, material consumption and net primary productivity (both measured from a production and consumption perspective) range between 35 and 60. These values mean that the world’s top 10% of income earners are responsible for between 25 and 43% of environmental impact. In contrast, the world’s bottom 10% income earners exert only around 3–5% of environmental impact35. These findings mean that environmental impact is to a large extent caused and driven by the world’s rich citizens36. Considering that the lifestyles of wealthy citizens are characterised by an abundance of choice, convenience and comfort, we argue that the determinant and driver we have referred to in previous sections as consumption, is more aptly labelled as affluence.', 'Teixido-Figueras et al.35 also find that carbon emissions and material use are globally more unequally distributed when accounted for as footprints. In contrast to territorial allocations, footprints attribute environmental burdens to the final consumer, no matter where the initial environmental pressure has occurred. Here, international trade is responsible for shifting burdens from mostly low-income developing-world producers to high-income developed-world consumers37. This phenomenon of outsourcing appears to exacerbate global disparities, at least in carbon emissions and material use contexts.', 'Systemic drivers and possible solutions', 'As the previous section shows, there is a positive relationship between biophysical resource use and affluence, as defined by income. Adding to this, the most affluent groups have higher incomes than expenditure, and their saving and investing leads to substantial additional environmental impact38. Therefore, and due to significant inter- and intra-national wealth and income inequality36,39, we differentiate between globally affluent groups, such as the European Union, and the most wealthy and affluent groups within countries, e.g. the <1–10% richest income segments36. As quantitative research36,40,41 shows, highly affluent consumers drive biophysical resource use (a) directly through high consumption, (b) as members of powerful factions of the capitalist class and (c) through driving consumption norms across the population. The next sections focus on affluent groups globally and on the intra-nationally most wealthy and affluent segments (hereafter called super-affluent).', 'Reducing overconsumption', 'Since the level of consumption determines total impacts, affluence needs to be addressed by reducing consumption, not just greening it17,28,29. It is clear that prevailing capitalist, growth-driven economic systems have not only increased affluence since World War II, but have led to enormous increases in inequality, financial instability, resource consumption and environmental pressures on vital earth support systems42. A suitable concept to address the ecological dimension is the widely established avoid-shift-improve framework outlined by Creutzig et al.43. Its focus on the end-use service, such as mobility, nutrition or shelter, allows for a multi-dimensional analysis of potential impact reductions beyond sole technological change. This analysis can be directed at human need satisfaction or decent living standards—an alternative perspective put forward for curbing environmental crises44,45. Crucially, this perspective allows us to consider different provisioning systems (e.g. states, markets, communities and households) and to differentiate between superfluous consumption, which is consumption that does not contribute to needs satisfaction, and necessary consumption which can be related to satisfying human needs. It remains important to acknowledge the complexities surrounding this distinction, as touched upon in the sections on growth imperatives below. Still, empirically, human needs satisfaction shows rapidly diminishing returns with overall consumption45,46.', 'As implied by the previous section on affluence as a driver, the strongest pillar of the necessary transformation is to avoid or to reduce consumption until the remaining consumption level falls within planetary boundaries, while fulfilling human needs17,28,46. Avoiding consumption means not consuming certain goods and services, from living space (overly large homes, secondary residences of the wealthy) to oversized vehicles, environmentally damaging and wasteful food, leisure patterns and work patterns involving driving and flying47. This implies reducing expenditure and wealth along ‘sustainable consumption corridors’, i.e. minimum and maximum consumption standards48,49 (Fig. 2). On the technological side, reducing the need for consumption can be facilitated by changes such as increasing lifespans of goods, telecommunication instead of physical travel, sharing and repairing instead of buying new, and house retrofitting43.', '[[FIGURE OMITTED]]', 'Sustainable lifestyles are situated between an upper limit of permissible use (“Environmental ceiling”) and a lower limit of necessary use of environmental resources (“Social foundation”) (figures from ref. 49 and ref. 84 combined and adapted).', 'However, the other two pillars of shift and improve are still vital to achieve the socio-ecological transformation46. Consumption patterns still need to be shifted away from resource and carbon-intensive goods and services, e.g. mobility from cars and airplanes to public buses and trains, biking or walking, heating from oil heating to heat pumps, nutrition—where possible—from animal to seasonal plant-based products43,46. In some cases this includes a shift from high- to low-tech (with many low-tech alternatives being less energy intense than high-tech equivalents, e.g. clothes line vs. dryer) and from global to local47. In parallel, also the resource and carbon intensity of consumption needs to be decreased, e.g. by expanding renewable energy, electrifying cars and public transport and increasing energy and material efficiency43,46.', 'The avoid-shift-improve framework, coherently applied with a dominant avoid and strong shift, implies the adoption of less affluent, simpler and sufficiency-oriented lifestyles to address overconsumption—consuming better but less46,47,49,50. This also includes addressing socially unsustainable underconsumption in impoverished communities in both less affluent and affluent countries, where enough and better is needed to achieve a more equal distribution of wealth and guarantee a minimum level of prosperity to overcome poverty48,49. Thus, establishing a floor-and-ceiling strategy of sustainable consumption corridors is necessary48,49 (Fig. 2).', 'It is well established that at least in the affluent countries a persistent, deep and widespread reduction of consumption and production would reduce economic growth as measured by gross domestic product (GDP)51,52. Estimates of the needed reduction of resource and energy use in affluent countries, resulting in a concomitant decrease in GDP of similar magnitude, range from 40 to 90%53,54. Bottom-up studies, such as from Rao et al.55 show that decent living standards could be maintained in India, Brazil and South Africa with around 90% less per-capita energy use than currently consumed in affluent countries. Trainer56, for Australia, and Lockyer57, for the USA, find similar possible reductions. In current capitalist economies such reduction pathways would imply widespread economic recession with a cascade of currently socially detrimental effects, such as a collapse of the stock market, unemployment, firm bankruptcies and lack of credit50,58. The question then becomes how such a reduction in consumption and production can be made socially sustainable, safeguarding human needs and social function50,59 However, to address this question, we first need to understand the various growth imperatives of capitalist social and economic systems and the role of the super-affluent segments of society60.', 'Super-affluent consumers and growth imperatives', 'Growth imperatives are active at multiple levels, making the pursuit of economic growth (net investment, i.e. investment above depreciation) a necessity for different actors and leading to social and economic instability in the absence of it7,52,60. Following a Marxian perspective as put forward by Pirgmaier and Steinberger61, growth imperatives can be attributed to capitalism as the currently dominant socio-economic system in affluent countries7,51,62, although this is debated by other scholars52. To structure this topic, we will discuss different affected actors separately, namely corporations, states and individuals, following Richters and Siemoneit60. Most importantly, we address the role of the super-affluent consumers within a society, which overlap with powerful fractions of the capitalist class. From a Marxian perspective, this social class is structurally defined by its position in the capitalist production process, as financially tied with the function of capital63. In capitalism, workers are separated from the means of production, implying that they must compete in labour markets to sell their labour power to capitalists in order to earn a living.', 'Even though some small- and medium-sized businesses manage to refrain from pursuing growth, e.g. due to a low competition intensity in niche markets, or lack of financial debt imperatives, this cannot be said for most firms64. In capitalism, firms need to compete in the market, leading to a necessity to reinvest profits into more efficient production processes to minimise costs (e.g. through replacing human labour power with machines and positive returns to scale), innovation of new products and/or advertising to convince consumers to buy more7,61,62. As a result, the average energy intensity of labour is now twice as high as in 195060. As long as a firm has a competitive advantage, there is a strong incentive to sell as much as possible. Financial markets are crucial to enable this constant expansion by providing (interest-bearing) capital and channelling it where it is most profitable58,61,63. If a firm fails to stay competitive, it either goes bankrupt or is taken over by a more successful business. Under normal economic conditions, this capitalist competition is expected to lead to aggregate growth dynamics7,62,63,65.', 'However, two factors exist that further strengthen this growth dynamic60. Firstly, if labour productivity continuously rises, then aggregate economic growth becomes necessary to keep employment constant, otherwise technological unemployment results. This creates one of the imperatives for capitalist states to foster aggregate growth, since with worsening economic conditions and high unemployment, tax revenues shrink, e.g. from labour and value-added taxes, while social security expenditures rise60,62. Adding to this, states compete with other states geopolitically and in providing favourable conditions for capital, while capitalists have the resources to influence political decisions in their favour. If economic conditions are expected to deteriorate, e.g. due to unplanned recession or progressive political change, firms can threaten capital flight, financial markets react and investor as well as consumer confidence shrink51,58,60. Secondly, consumers usually increase their consumption in tune with increasing production60. This process can be at least in part explained by substantial advertising efforts by firms47,52,66. However, further mechanisms are at play as explained further below.', 'Following this analysis, it is not surprising that the growth paradigm is hegemonic, i.e. the perception that economic growth solves all kinds of societal problems, that it equals progress, power and welfare and that it can be made practically endless through some form of supposedly green or sustainable growth59. Taken together, the described dynamics create multiple dependencies of workers, firms and states on a well-functioning capital accumulation and thus wield more material, institutional and discursive power (e.g. for political lobbying) to capitalists who are usually the most affluent consumers61,67. Even if different fractions of the capitalist class have manifold and competing interests which need to be constantly renegotiated, there is a common interest in maintaining the capitalist system and favourable conditions for capital accumulation, e.g. through aggregate growth and high consumption51,62. How this political corruption by the super-affluent plays out in practice is well documented, e.g. for the meat industry in Denmark6.', 'Super-affluent consumers drive consumption norms', 'Growth imperatives and drivers (with the latter describing less coercive mechanisms to increase consumption) can also be active at the individual level. In this case, the level of consumption can serve as a proxy47,60,68. To start with, individual consumption decisions are not made in a vacuum, but are shaped by surrounding (physical and social) structures and provisioning systems47,61,69. Sanne66 and Alexander47 discuss several structural barriers to sufficiency-oriented lifestyles, locking in high consumption. These include lack of suitable housing, insufficient options for socialising, employment, transport and information, as well as high exposure to consumer temptations. Often, these conditions are deliberately fostered by states and also capitalists (the latter overlapping with super-affluent consumers and having disproportionate influence on states) to increase consumption61,66.', 'Further active mechanisms to spur growth include positional and efficiency consumption, which contribute to an increase in consumption overall52,60,68,70. After basic material needs are satisfied, an increasing proportion of consumption is directed at positional goods52,70. The defining feature of these goods is that they are expensive and signify social status. Access to them depends on the income relative to others. Status matters, since empirical studies show that currently relative income is one of the strongest determinants of individual happiness52. In the aggregate however, the pursuit of positional consumption, driven by super-affluent consumers and high inequalities, likely resembles a zero-sum game with respect to societal wellbeing70,71. With every actor striving to increase their position relative to their peers, the average consumption level rises and thus even more expensive positional goods become necessary, while the societal wellbeing level stagnates42,71. This is supported by a large body of empirical research, showing that an individual’s happiness correlates positively with their own income but negatively with the peer group’s income71 and that unequal access to positional goods fosters rising consumption52. This endless process is a core part of capitalism as it keeps social momentum and consumption high with affluent consumers driving aspirations and hopes of social ascent in low-affluence segments70,72. The positional consumption behaviour of the super-affluent thus drives consumption norms across the population, for instance through their excessive air travel, as documented by Gössling73.', 'Lastly, in capitalism, workers must compete against each other in the labour market in order to earn a living from capitalists7,63. Following Siemoneit68, this can lead to a similar imperative to net invest (increase the level of consumption/investment) as is observed with capitalists. In order to stay competitive, individuals are pushed to increase time and cost efficiency by investing in cars, kitchen appliances, computers and smartphones, by using social media and online trade etc. This efficiency consumption—effectively another facet of the rebound effect38,47,68—helps to manage high workloads, thus securing an income, while maintaining private life. This is often accompanied by trends of commodification61, understood as the marketisation of products and services which used to be provisioned through more time-intensive commons or reciprocal social arrangements, e.g. convenience food vs. cooking together. As in the food example74, this replacement of human labour with energy- and material-intensive industrial production typically increases environmental pressures47,75. Through these economic pressures, positive feedback loops and lock-ins are expected to emerge, since other consumers need to keep up with these investments or face disadvantages, e.g. when car or smartphone ownership become presupposed. Taken together with positional consumption, structural barriers to sufficiency and the substantial advertising efforts by capitalists, these mechanisms explain to a large extent why consumers seem so willing to increase their consumption in accordance with increasing production60.', 'Solution approaches', 'In response to the aforementioned drivers of affluence, diverse solution approaches and strategies are being discussed47,52,76. We differentiate these as belonging to a more reformist and a more radical group (Table 1). This is based on the categorisation by Alexander and Rutherford77. All these approaches differ from the established green growth (ecomodernism) approach28,78,79, in that they at least adopt an agnostic, if not negative, position on the question whether or not GDP can be sufficiently decoupled from environmental impacts28,52,78,80. Hence, these approaches also differ from the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), since SDG 8 aims for continued global GDP growth of ~3% p.a., likely contradicting several other SDGs, e.g. SDG 12 and 1381,82,83. Further, the SDGs are not representing a theoretically coherent framework, since they are part of a deliberative process45, and sideline underlying power dynamics as well as interactions between injustices83. Nevertheless, approaches underpinned by multi-dimensional social wellbeing and environmental goals, such as Kate Raworth’s Doughnut Economics84, are strong alternatives to GDP-focused ones and may inspire transformative change in the context of the more reformist solution approaches outlined below. Importantly, the following discussion can only provide a rough overview of the respective approaches.', '[[TABLE OMITTED]]', 'The reformist group consists of heterogeneous approaches such as a-growth80, precautionary/pragmatic post-growth52, prosperity42 and managing85 without growth as well as steady-state economics86. These approaches have in common that they aim to achieve the required socio-ecological transformation through and within today’s dominant institutions, such as centralised democratic states and market economies52,77. From this position it often follows that current, socially vital institutions, such as the welfare state, labour markets, healthcare, pensions and others, need to be reformed to become independent from GDP growth52. Generally, bottom-up movements are seen as crucial, leading to value and cultural changes towards sufficiency42,47. Eventually, however, significant policy changes are proposed to achieve the necessary downshifting of consumption and production42,77,86 and/or the reduction of environmental impacts through decoupling52,80. These include, among others, stringent eco-taxes or cap-and trade systems, directed investments in green industries and public institutions, wealth redistribution through taxation and a maximum income, a guaranteed basic income and/or reduced working hours42,77. Although these policies already seem radical when compared to today’s policies, the proponents of reformist approaches are convinced that the transformation can be achieved in current capitalist economies and democratic states42,77,86.', 'The second, more radical, group disagrees and argues that the needed socio-ecological transformation will necessarily entail a shift beyond capitalism and/or current centralised states. Although comprising considerable heterogeneity77, it can be divided into eco-socialist approaches, viewing the democratic state as an important means to achieve the socio-ecological transformation51,65 and eco-anarchist approaches, aiming instead at participatory democracy without a state, thus minimising hierarchies54,87. Many degrowth approaches combine elements of the two, but often see a stronger role for state action than eco-anarchists50,51,88. Degrowth is defined here as “an equitable downscaling of throughput [that is the energy and resource flows through an economy, strongly coupled to GDP], with a concomitant securing of wellbeing“59,p7, aimed at a subsequent downscaled steady-state economic system that is socially just and in balance with ecological limits. Importantly, degrowth does not aim for a reduction of GDP per se, but rather accepts it as a likely outcome of the necessary changes78. Moreover, eco-feminist approaches highlight the role of patriarchal social relations and the parallels between the oppression of women and exploitation of nature89, while post-development approaches stress the manifold and heterogeneous visions of achieving such a socio-ecological transformation globally, especially in the global South90.', 'Degrowth advocates propose similar policy changes as the reformist group50,80. However, it is stressed that implementing these changes would most likely imply a shift beyond capitalism, e.g. preventing capital accumulation through dis-economies of scale and collective firm ownership, and thus require radical social change59,62,91. Eco-socialists usually focus more on rationing, planning of investments and employment, price controls and public ownership of at least the most central means of production to plan their downscaling in a socially sustainable way65,77.', 'Both groups agree on the crucial role of bottom-up movements to change culture and values, push for the implementation of these top-down changes and establish parts of the new economy within the old47,50. Finally, eco-anarchists do not view the state as a central means to achieve the socio-ecological transformation. Instead, they stress the role of bottom-up grassroots initiatives, such as transition initiatives and eco-villages, in prefiguring the transformation as well as cultural and value changes as a necessary precondition for wider radical change. With these initiatives scaling up, the state might get used to remove barriers and to support establishing a participatory-democratic and localised post-capitalist economy54,77.', 'In summary, there seems to be some strategic overlap between reformist and the more radical eco-anarchist and eco-socialist approaches, at least in the short term77. The question remains how these solution approaches help in overcoming the capitalist dynamics previously outlined, since here bottom-up and governmental action seem to be limited. It is important to recognise the pivotal role of social movements in this process, which can bring forward social tipping points through complex, unpredictable and reinforcing feedbacks92,93 and create windows of opportunity from crises77,94.', 'New research directions', 'The evidence is clear. Long-term and concurrent human and planetary wellbeing will not be achieved in the Anthropocene if affluent overconsumption continues, spurred by economic systems that exploit nature and humans. We find that, to a large extent, the affluent lifestyles of the world’s rich determine and drive global environmental and social impact. Moreover, international trade mechanisms allow the rich world to displace its impact to the global poor. Not only can a sufficient decoupling of environmental and detrimental social impacts from economic growth not be achieved by technological innovation alone, but also the profit-driven mechanism of prevailing economic systems prevents the necessary reduction of impacts and resource utilisation per se.', 'In this context, the digital revolution—and more broadly the Fourth Industrial Revolution (FIR) with converging, step-change innovations in digital technology, artificial intelligence, Internet of Things, 3D-printing, biotechnology and nanotechnology—has been touted as an enabler of absolute decoupling through sheer exponential efficiency gains95. While digitalisation is already a key driving force in societal transformation, it has so far led to more consumption and inequality and remained coupled with the indirect use of energy and materials, therefore sustaining resource-intensive and greenhouse-gas growth patterns at the macro-economic level17,96. While the digital revolution undoubtedly increases labour productivity—demonstrated by individual leading businesses showing a strong productivity paradox—it remains to be seen whether the same is true for resource productivity, and this will depend on governance and regulation. Even if the FIR were to achieve absolute decoupling, this would come at a potentially high risk for privacy, liberty, data sovereignty, civic rights, security, equality and democracy96,97.', 'What is needed are convincing and viable solutions at the systems level that can be followed. We call for the scientific community across all disciplines to identify and support solutions with multidisciplinary research, for the public to engage in broad discussions about solutions and for policy makers to implement and enable solutions in policy processes. Based on the literature reviewed above we identify the following areas in need of further research. This list is not exhaustive or even fully conclusive, but rather meant to be the start of a continuous debate to frame future agendas of research and actions that need to be discussed and criticised.', 'Research to advance basic academic understanding', 'Can inspiring visions for a sustainable life in prosperity, but within planetary limits and with less material affluence be formulated and demonstrated? How can fundamental changes in lifestyles of the affluent part of the human population be motivated and sustained?', 'The interface between materially downshifted lifestyles and the social environment (institutions, values, norms and governance) needs special attention. Which circumstances will allow for and support widespread shifts in lifestyles? What are the institutional, cultural and individual barriers to adopting lifestyle changes and how can they be overcome? What is the role of social groups, organisations and bottom-up movements? Can we learn from societies, e.g. indigenous and pre-industrial societies, which managed to live without economic growth?', 'So far, steady-state, degrowth or a-growth concepts have not practically been implemented on larger scales. Research on the environmental and social sustainability of these propositions is necessary (see e.g. ref. 78). Can a transition to reduced and changed consumption be achieved while at the same time keeping economic and social stability? What are the implications on work, employment and population growth? How can social security be maintained and equality be increased? What are the consequences for trade and for the global South in particular?', 'The scientific community should develop scenarios and possible pathways of strong sustainable consumption and production with upper and lower limits as suggested by the floor-and-ceiling framework, or sustainable consumption corridors48,49,91,98. These need to feature reduced physical throughput (possibly resulting in reduced GDP) and recomposing consumption99 with a simultaneous social reorientation of people, institutions and governments. Suitable indicators and scenarios based on interdisciplinary research need to be implemented to monitor progress100.', 'Research on societal changes for citizens and communities', 'One first and immediate action anyone can take is to talk about overconsumption, i.e. current levels of consumption by most people in the global North, and how it is unsustainable and unethical or unjust. A wide debate in society, research and policy is necessary. Many people do not see themselves being part of either the problem or the solution, but look for governments, technology and/or businesses to solve the problem. The necessary alternative futures need to be discussed, envisioned and shared. It is important to create a sense of collective responsibility and action. Social sciences research and approaches can help by creating, providing and sharing concepts, experiences and platforms where public debates and dialogues take place. People who have already downshifted should be enabled to share their motivations and experiences to break through stigma and isolation, as would activists building a larger popular movement on climate action.'] | [
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d732b4a47347ff8a380567e4efbda3a91da00f6f0100ca729dbdff97ad9ffbdb | Growth’s unsustainable due to warming, biod loss, resource shortages, and bioaccumulation---innovation can’t solve due to bad incentives and rebound effects---only collapse that spurs degrowth can avert extinction | null | Luiz Marques 20, associate professor, Department of History, State University of Campinas (UNICAMP) Campinas/SP - Brasil, editor and consultant for the Historia Viva magazine, worked as an analyst at the National Center for Scientific Research in France, has written or collaborated on hundreds of articles and dozens of books, “Climate Feedbacks and Tipping Points,” through “The Illusion of a Sustainable Capitalism,” Capitalism and Environmental Collapse, Springer International Publishing, 2020, pp. 199–361, DOI.org (Crossref), doi:10.1007/978-3-030-47527-7_8 | increases beyond 1° elicit rapid non-linear damage the further the greater the risk 2 ° take Earth to an exponential rise to states inhospitable to human s 5 ° is likely by 2100 positive feedback s aerosols Ocean temp s and CO2 ice–albedo and melting permafrost act in synergy Methane Hydrates release CH4 leading outside the most pessimistic projections to Venus vertebrates and forests cease to exist change drive us to pockets with the best environments will be extinction through chance sea level rise flooding hundreds of millions exacerbate wars by water food and disasters nuclear power flooding globalization are eroding the foundations of life worldwide collapse of biod risk extinction for Homo sapiens Agribusiness clear the Amazon intoxicates soil , causes eutrophication Drugs kill animals pollinators are threatened food dependence is immense , and catastrophic we will see extinction of fish biomass declined two-thirds reached irreversible levels loss of oxygen nitrogen from fossil fuels, and warming becomes a marine cemetery ocean absorbs CO2 which reduc pH slows embryo growth decrease Corals lethal to life jellyfish proliferate exterminate eggs humans may be unable to survive plastic via bioaccumulation serve as a vector for chemicals or pathogens plankton decline threatening life on the planet pasture occupied the area of Africa each pound consumes 100,000 liters of water The only way agreement can achieve 2° is to shut down the economy a deal has become a socio-physical impossibility efficiency does not decrease absolute products increasing demand always offset innovation by expansion at a greater rate than the gain No expansion evade the second law renewable s are not efficient requires more concrete steel copper and aluminum crises cannot be solved by policy only drastic reconfiguration downturn is inexorable growth are already declining The pandemic will accelerate this difficult to recover from its next crises degrowth would prevent collapse more brutal and deadly the longer it is denied What delays acceptance are the mantra of absence of alt s | mechanisms of climate warming are positively influenced by climate itself . As warming increases, so too will the magnitude of these mechanisms, forming a positive feedback Such positive feedback loops are already at work temperature increases beyond 1° C may elicit rapid , unpredictable, and non-linear responses that lead to extensive damage .” Tipping points at which a small perturbation can qualitatively alter the state or development of a system in many processes, the buildup of tensors in a system leads to its collapse: “One way to look at the tendency of complex systems to collapse is in terms of tipping points. This concept indicates that collapse is not a smooth transition ; it is a drastic change that takes the system from one state to another In complex systems, it is generally impossible to predict the precise moment when accumulation will overstep a limit.” For Nobre we have already crossed line Many other scientists agree Whether or not we have crossed this red line the further one proceeds in a process of small quantitative changes, the greater the risk of crossing a tipping point we are walking out onto a minefield. The farther we walk out onto that minefield, the greater the likelihood that we set off those explosives Tipping points, therefore, involve analyzing processes that present increasing risks of inflection or nonlinear evolution a 2 ° C w arming could take the Earth system to much higher temperatures and an exponential rise well above 2.5 meters irreversible warming dynamics “could prevent stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature rises and cause continued warming on a ‘Hothouse Earth’ pathway even as human emissions are reduced Especially important is the hypothesis that this tipping point can be crossed at a level of average global warming no higher than 2 °C “a 2 °C warming could activate important tipping elements raising the temperature further to activate other tipping elements in a domino-like cascade could lead to conditions that resemble planetary states that were last seen several millions of years ago conditions inhospitable to human societie s temperatures of as much as 4 °C– 5 ° C above the pre-industrial period is the most likely scenario by 2100 the current Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 has reported values between 2.1 °C and 4.7 °C, slightly higher than those of the IPCC but always with an uncomfortable margin of uncertainty with a 10% probability of exceeding 6 °C. In addition to greater climate sensitivity, the Hothouse Earth hypothesis becomes all the more likely given the combined influence of closely interconnected positive climate feedback mechanism s Anthropogenic aerosols and their interactions can both cool and warm the atmosphere these particles remain one of the greatest lingering sources of uncertainty An eventual lower use of fossil fuels, especially coal, will diminish the aerosol masking effect , leading to additional warming this additional warming is already at work therefore, “global warming will happen faster than we think aerosols, including sulfates, nitrates, and organic compounds, reflect sunlight. This shield of aerosols has kept the planet cooler, possibly by as much as 0.7°C globally .” The urgently needed transition toward low-carbon energy sources will, therefore, lead to an immediate additional increase of at least 0.5 °C in global average temperatures, with relevant regional differences. Ocean s sequester the current Earth’s energy imbalance Much of this thermal energy will remain submerged for millennia But the oceans might be starting to release some of that pent-up thermal energy, which could contribute to significant global temp erature inc rease s Given the enormity of the ocean’s thermal load, even a tiny change has a big impact ” (Katz 2015). and The more the oceans heat up, the less their ability to absorb and store CO2 and, hence, the greater the amount of these gases warming the atmosphere approximately 2% of the global terrestrial net primary productivity are already lost each year “due to dryland degradation even tropical forests are no longer carbon sinks. Actually, they have become a net carbon source due to deforestation and reductions in carbon density within standing forests The ice–albedo feedback The potentially explosive magnitude and speed of GHG release into the atmosphere. This is due to forest fires melting ice and collapse of land permafrost thawing much faster than previously thought, often for the first time since the last glaciation These accelerators of global warming cannot be studied separately because they act in synergy Permafrost have remained frozen since the last glaciation and may have depths of over 700 meters total estimated soil organic carbon storage for the permafrost region is around 1300 petagrams of which around 500 Gt is in non-permafrost soils, seasonally thawed, while around 800 Gt is perennially frozen. These soils contain approximately twice the amount of carbon currently present in the atmosphere . Methane Hydrates there is an increasing risk of irreversible destabilization of sediments in the Arctic seafloor , with a disastrous release of methane into the atmosphere abruptly the ESAS has become increasingly exposed to solar radiation, which accelerates its heating. It has warmed by up to 17 °C, and thawing is already releasing methane in annual quantities no smaller than those of terrestrial Arctic ecosystems once water replaces ice, Earth could warm substantially , equivalent to the additional release of a trillion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere An abrupt thaw in permafrost could be initiated by wildfires or through thermokarst processes Fires in the boreal regions reduce the albedo by covering the reflective white snow with black soot that absorbs sunlight, accelerating melting, bacterial activity, and release of CO2 and methane into the atmosphere Frozen soil doesn’t just lock up carbon — it physically holds the landscape together permafrost is collapsing suddenly as pockets of ice within it melt. Instead of a few centimetres thawing each year, several metres can become destabilized within days The land can sink and be inundated by swelling lakes and wetlands ESAS there is “a potential for possible massi ve/ abrupt release of CH4 , whether from destabilizing hydrates or from free gas accumulations beneath permafrost; such a release requires only a trigger.” This trigger can occur at any moment because The ESAS is tectonically and seismically active there will be an escape of 50 Gt of methane in the short-term such a methane pulse will accelerate positive feedback loops that can release even more methane into the atmosphere at an exponential rate of progression, leading to warming that is completely outside even the most pessimistic projections the end result will be runaway global warming lead the Earth to ward conditions that prevail today in Venus . This conjecture is totally useless from the point of view of the fate of vertebrates and forests , because both would cease to exist under conditions that are much less extreme . The scenario of warming above 3 °C over the next few decades and the collapse of biodiversity already underway will be enough to cross the tipping points conducive to a “ Hothouse Earth ” pathway One of the most worrying things is permafrost melting. If it continues to melt as we think it’s already doing in some regions, we may well have a runaway greenhouse effect. We’re very dependent on a few staple crops, such as wheat and rice. If they get hit by climate change, we’re in trouble. We’re medium - to large-size mammals, we take a long time to grow up, we only produce one child at a time and we’re demanding of our environment — this type of mammal is the most vulnerable we’re not immune from extinction The danger is that climate change will drive us in to pockets with the best remaining environments The worst-case scenario could be that everyone disappears except those who survive near the North and South poles — maybe a few hundred million, if the environment still supports them — and those will be the remaining humans. The problem is that once you’ve got humans isolated in small areas , they are much more vulnerable to extinction through chance events. sea level rise capable of flooding thousands of square kilometers hundreds of millions of people who may fall into a new category of so-called “natural” disaster victims, the climate refugees may exacerbate conflict over resources wars and armed conflicts are intensified by climate problems, such as droughts, water depletion, food shortages, floods, and hurricanes disasters 630 million live on land below projected annual flood levels for 2100 The growing vulnerability of nuclear power plants is worrying electrical installations, indispensable for the functioning of the reactor cooling system, are vulnerable to flooding whatever may be its cause: hurricanes, torrential rains, dam failure, or rise in sea level their design calculates safety margins for such phenomena on the basis of historical limits, which are now being exceeded Societies’ very survival depends on their ability to avert impending of bio logical annihilation via the ongoing sixth mass extinction of species, triggered or intensified by globalization We are eroding the very foundations of life worldwide the collapse of biod iversity and the acceleration of global warming, two processes that interact in synergy, entail an increasing risk of extinction for the Homo sapiens a matter of life and death for people on the planet . A sustainable future cannot be achieved without biological diversity not only for nature itself, but also for all 7 billion people who depend on it. The strong focus on species extinctions, a critical aspect of the contemporary pulse of biological extinction, leads to a common misimpression that Earth’s biota is not immediately threatened, just slowly entering an episode of major biodiversity loss. This view overlooks the current trends of population declines and extinctions This process has accelerated despite diplomatic and other efforts if global biodiversity quantification estimates include the domains of bacteria our planet could contain nearly one trillion species The rate of extinction is speeding up 150 to 200 species become extinct every 24 hours. This speed cannot be compared to previous extinctions rates of species extinction are now on the order of 1000 times those before humanity ’s dominance The number species threatened with extinction has grown rapidly global capitalism is systemically the main cause of biodiversity collapse . Agribusiness is one of the most important causes of population decline and the extinction of vertebrates and invertebrates In the Amazon 10 thousand square kilometers are clear ed every year eliminating between 475 to 950 thousand animals per year in the Amazon . In addition to advancing over native vegetation cover, agribusiness intoxicates the soil , causes eutrophication and poisons the environment with systemic pesticides insecticides exert genotoxic and cytotoxic effects, and impaired immune function, to reduced growth and reproductive success Use of imidacloprid and clothianidin as seed treatments on some crops poses risks to small birds, and ingestion of even a few treated seeds could cause mortality neonicotinoid insecticides have adverse effects on non-target invertebrate species The situation of birds has worsened Drugs and pesticides kill animals on a large scale leading to kidney failure over 40% of invertebrate pollinators are threatened with global extinction Our food dependence on pollinators is immense , and the consequences of this crisis can be catastrophic Over three-quarters of wild flowering plant species in temperate regions need pollination This is important for the long-term survival of wild plant populations and provides food for birds and mammals pollinated crops represent around one third of global crop production by volume 90% of the vitamin C comes from insect-pollinated fruits, vegetables, oils, and seeds loss of a single species reduces floral fidelity in the remaining pollinators, with significant implications for ecosystem functioning in terms of reduced plant reproduction, even when potentially effective pollinators remained in the system The threat of extinction that hovers over bees affects both wild and managed bees Insecticides and fungicides alter insect and spider activity Pesticide and toxin exposure increases mortality from diseases we are probably in the century that will see the extinction of marine fish .” In freshwater the collapse has begun hundreds have disappeared because of human activities The ongoing death toll in freshwater is overwhelming because of the smaller scale of ecosystems and their greater exposure and vulnerability The world’s ocean is at high risk of entering a phase of extinction of marine species unprecedented in human history the combined effects of overfishing, pollution, ocean warming, acidification, and deoxygenation is creating the conditions associated with every previous major extinction of species The speed and rate of degeneration in the ocean is far faster than anyone has predicted. Many of the negative impacts previously identified are greater than the worst predictions marine defaunation has been developing with increasing brutality and speed sea turtles might become extinct within the timespan of a generation or so warming causes high mortality rates in their offspring Extermination of aquatic life is caused by a wide range of anthropogenic impacts, including overfishing, pollution, river damming, warming of the aquatic environment, aquaculture, decline in phytoplankton, eutrophication, deoxygenation, acidification, death, and destruction of corals existential threats also loom over many marine mammals One of the biggest stressors of marine life is noise military pulses and mass strandings damag More than five million suffer ruptured eardrums and hearing loss most major declines in stock biomass and in corresponding yields are due to unsustainable levels of fishing a large fraction of the world’s fished biodiversity is overexploited or depleted total fish biomass has declined two-thirds from historical baselines billions of animals have been lost from the world’s oceans The decline in marine life has reached irreversible levels as natural resources become scarce, capitalism generates new technologies and more radical means of exploration and increasing devastation Only a few decades ago it was virtually impossible to fish deeper than 500 meters: now, with technological improvements bottom trawling is occurring at depths of up to 2,000 meters Most deep-sea fisheries considered unsustainable have started to target fish populations that are low in productivity This leads to rapid declines in population and slower recovery As coastal fisheries have collapsed fishing has spread seaward and deeper There is no environmental variable of such ecological importance to marine ecosystems that has changed so drastically in such a short period of time as a result of human activities as dissolved oxygen The loss of oxygen from the world’s ocean is a growing threat The primary causes are eutrophication nitrogen deposition from the burning of fossil fuels, and ocean warming In seawater, oxygen exists in different concentrations hypoxia or anoxia naturally are rare, small-scale, and seasonal anthropogenic factors turn them into frequent growing phenomena that are large scale and sometimes permanent An anoxic zone, becomes a marine cemetery where there is no place for vertebrates The surface ocean currently absorbs approximately one-third of the excess CO2 which leads to a reduc tion in pH and wholesale shifts in seawater chemistry oceanic acidification decreases concentrations of calcium carbonate which makes it more difficult for a vast group of marine organisms to use these minerals to turn them into their shells or exoskeletal structures. The deficit slows embryo growth , prevents them fully forming or makes their protections less adherent and more vulnerable Calcification will decrease 60% Corals are anchors of marine systems and their disappearance may be lethal to underwater life . Warming waters are the most important causa mortis of corals causes corals to expel the microscopic algae (zooxanthellae) living in endosymbiosis with them from their tissues. This occasions coral bleaching, from which they do not recover Sixty mass bleaching events occurred 90% have been killed by warming While corals die, jellyfish thrive Once kept in balance jellyfish now proliferate wildly benefiting from (1) warming waters transportation in ballasts of ships multiplication of hard surfaces decline of predatory species extinction of competing species and lower concentrations of diluted oxygen jellyfish complete the work of man. they exterminate eggs creating a world where humans may be soon unable to survive 100 million are killed each year by plastic Each of these particles in this plastic soup retains chemical characteristics and toxicity fish which ingest block the digestive tract Microplastic harm via bioaccumulation and can serve as a vector for toxic chemicals or pathogens can carry bacteria to other regions causing invasions of species plastic components are now in human stool plastic pollution is poisoning phyto plankton a decline that is now occurring at alarming rates We observe declines in eight out of ten ocean regions, and estimate a global rate of decline of approximately 1% per year threatening life on the planet marine phytoplankton biomass declines constitute a major component of global change in the oceans changes in phytoplankton biomass and productivity are related to ocean warming Mining operations extract 2 billion tons of iron and 15 million tons of copper globally per year The USA alone extracts 3 billion tons of ore a year from its territory the removal of sand and gravel for construction on a global scale can exceed 15 billion tons a year In relation to rocks and earth alone, humans remove, per year, the equivalent of two Mount Fujis mining operations dig up the Earth’s crust to depths that reach several thousand meters in its extraction processes alone, the oil industry drilled 5 million kilometers underground equivalent to the total length of man-made highways on the planet Each year, more than 60 billion land animals are used in meat , egg , and dairy production around the world. this meant about ten animals for each human Adding these numbers to 50 billion chickens estimates are of nearly 53 billion animals killed for food We never produced and consumed as much meat as we do today Some 70 billion farm animals are produced worldwide every year, two-thirds of them now factory-farmed in Brazilian territory Most herds are concentrated in the North and Midwest with pastures expanding rapidly over the Cerrado and the Amazon among the richest areas of planetary biodiversity the largest laboratory of the planetary hypobiosphere 7,516 M per year of CO2 equivalents or 18% of emissions, are attributable to cattle, buffalo, sheep, goats, camels, horses, pigs, and poultry pasture land occupied 34 million km2 or 26% of dry land more than the total area of Africa 20% of these are degraded The production of 1 kg of meat requires the use of 20,000 liters of water each pound of beef consumes 100,000 liters of water . Due to the multiplicity of these impacts, the process of extreme “carnivoration” of the human diet drives biod iversity collapse capitalism is incapable of reversing the tendency toward global environmental collapse Climate change is a result of the greatest market failure the world has seen Yvo de Boer former Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC A diplomat well versed in the intricacies of international climate negotiations and professionally attached to the weight of words clarified his position in an interview with Bloomberg Business: “ The only way that a 2015 agreement can achieve a 2° [C] goal is to shut down the global economy Today , meeting the 2 °C target no longer depends on a deal . It has become a socio-physical impossibility What is now on the agenda is to divert ourselves from our current trajectory which is leading us to an average global warming of over 2 °C in the second quarter of the century and over 3 °C probably in the third quarter any average global warming above 3 °C is considered “catastrophic” it will lead to low latitudes becoming uninhabitable the frequent flooding of urban infrastructure and drastic decreases in agricultural productivity . It will also trigger even greater warming which will have unfathomable impacts . evoking historical evidence would not be enough to demonstrate the structural unsustainability of capitalism, since such a system could change It turns out, though, that globalized cap italism cannot change . it is the logic of accumulation that can demonstrate the unfeasibility of recommendations regulatory frameworks authors dream of are not within the aims of global capitalism and will never occupy a central position in its agenda to maintain a reasonable chance of not exceeding a global average warming of 2 °C we have a carbon budget of approximately 600 Gt CO2 Decoupling is the hope that eco-efficient technologies in industrialized countries with mature economies will enable the miracle of increased production and consumption with less pressure on ecosystems It is true that a greater efficiency in the production process may allow for relative decoupling But it does not decrease this pressure in absolute terms products The mechanism known as the “Jevons paradox” or rebound effect describes how increasing demand for energy or natural resources always tends to offset the eco- efficiency gain of technological innovation although energy efficiency per product has doubled or even tripled this gain is offset by the expansion of production at a greater rate than the eco-efficiency gain . The actions of institutions and business foundations that advocate for an eco-efficient and circular economy are certainly positive however there is no circular economy No economy trapped in the paradigm of expansion , can evade the second law of thermodynamics even though the surplus energy supplied by oil and other fossil fuels in relation to the energy invested to obtain them is declining low-carbon renewable energie s are not yet, and may never be, as efficient as oil the energy transition, while urgent and imperative, will further distance us from a circular economy to provide one Kw/h of electricity through land-based wind energy requires about 10 times more reinforced concrete and steel and 20 times more copper and aluminum than a coal- fired plant The only way to lessen the environmental impact of capitalism is to reduce, in absolute terms, the consumption of energy and goods This is incompatible with expansive functioning The increasing scarcity of certain inputs and the need to secure large-scale and low-cost supply nullify the benefits of green initiatives The capstone [of the pyramid] represents the easily and cheaply extracted portion of the resource; the next layer is the portion of the resource base that can be extracted with more difficulty and expense, and with worse environmental impacts; while the remaining bulk of the pyramid represents resources unlikely to be extracted in capitalism, the logic of capital accumulation and surplus, together with the growing scarcity of finite natural resources, necessarily exacerbates the negative environmental impact of economic activity. What makes it specifically impossible to submit to the environmental imperative is the impossibility of “internalizing” the costs of increasing environmental damage Methodologies to “ price ” nature are now multiplying it is impossible for corporations to internalize their environmental cost because the total value generated by their activity is less than the monetary expression of the value of the natural heritage that was destroyed capitalist accumulation is disrupting the climate system, depleting the planet’s mineral , water , and biological resources, and provoking multiple disruptions in ecosystems and a collapse of biodiversity Global crises cannot be solved by policy reforms – but only by drastic reconfiguration of the system itself economic downturn , far from being an option, is an inexorable trend Precisely because we are depleting the planet’s biodiversity and destabilizing the environmental coordinates global economic growth rates are already declining compared to the 1945–1973 average in the 2013–2017 period, the average growth of the global economy was 2.5%; this is a 0.9% decrease from the average a decade ago This tendency toward declining growth is inescapable The current pandemic will only accelerate this as the economy will find it difficult to recover from its next crises degrowth would be the only way to prevent economic and socio-environmental collapse that will be more brutal and deadly the longer it is denied it is impossible for the world economy to grow its way out of poverty and environmental degradation sustainable growth is impossible . What delays broader acceptance of this are not arguments but the mantra of absence of alt ernative s Such is the hypnotic power of this mantra that even the scholars most aware of the links between environmental crisis and economic activity cling to the absurd idea of a “sustainable capitalism,” “a bad oxymoron—self-contradictory as prose , and unevocative as poetry.” it is possible, and more than ever necessary, to overcome the idea that failure has left no alt ernative Human thinking is not binary , and the unfeasibility of the socialist experience in the twentieth century does not ipso facto imply the viability of capitalism | positively climate itself positive feedback already at work rapid , unpredictable, and non-linear responses extensive damage Tipping points small qualitatively alter buildup of tensors collapse not a smooth transition drastic system one state to another precise moment already this further one proceeds greater the risk set off those explosives inflection nonlinear evolution 2 ° much higher temperatures exponential rise above 2.5 meters intermediate as human emissions reduced no higher than 2 °C tipping elements further other domino-like cascade millions of years ago inhospitable human s 5 ° most likely scenario 2100 higher IPCC uncomfortable margin of uncertainty exceeding 6 °C. combined influence closely interconnected positive feedback s aerosols diminish aerosol masking effect additional already faster than we think shield 0.7°C globally needed low-carbon energy sources immediate additional increase of at least 0.5 °C Ocean significant global temp s tiny big impact absorb and store CO2 warming the atmosphere dryland degradation tropical forests source deforestation carbon density ice–albedo magnitude speed forest fires ice land permafrost act in synergy twice the amount of carbon currently in the atmosphere destabilization of sediments Arctic seafloor disastrous abruptly warm substantially equivalent additional trillion tons abrupt wildfires albedo covering snow soot holds together collapsing suddenly centimetres metres destabilized days ESAS massi ve/ abrupt release of CH4 any moment tectonically and seismically active 50 Gt of methane in the short-term accelerate positive feedback loops more outside even the most pessimistic projections runaway global warming to Venus vertebrates forests cease to exist less extreme already Hothouse Earth most vulnerable drive to pockets best remaining environments isolated in small areas more vulnerable to extinction through chance events. sea level rise thousands of square kilometers millions exacerbate resources wars water food 630 million nuclear power flooding historical exceeded very survival avert impending of bio annihilation globalization foundations life worldwide biod increasing risk of extinction for Homo sapiens life and death people cannot be achieved biological diversity entering current trends bacteria trillion species rate speeding up cannot be compared 1000 times humanity threatened grown rapidly systemically main cause of biodiversity collapse Agribusiness Amazon thousand square kilometers clear year Amazon intoxicates soil eutrophication environment insecticides birds pollinators global extinction food immense consequences catastrophic third global crop production vitamin C single species wild managed Insecticides fungicides extinction of marine fish ocean unprecedented every previous major extinction of species far faster greater worst predictions defaunation sea turtles generation offspring mammals noise military mass strandings five million ruptured eardrums hearing loss fishing fished overexploited depleted declined two-thirds billions irreversible levels radical means exploration devastation bottom trawling 2,000 meters unsustainable low in productivity rapid declines in population slower recovery coastal spread seaward and deeper changed so drastically dissolved oxygen loss of oxygen growing threat eutrophication nitrogen fossil warming different concentrations hypoxia anoxia frequent growing phenomena large scale permanent cemetery no place for vertebrates one-third reduc pH wholesale shifts vast group of marine organisms embryo fully forming adherent vulnerable 60% anchors lethal to life Warming Sixty mass bleaching events 90% corals jellyfish proliferate complete exterminate eggs humans may be soon unable to survive plastic toxicity digestive tract bioaccumulation vector chemicals pathogens bacteria other regions invasions of species human stool plankton alarming rates 1% per year life on the planet major component warming Mining 2 billion tons of iron and 15 million tons of copper globally per year 15 billion tons a year two Mount Fujis thousand meters oil 5 million kilometers underground highways 60 billion land animals meat egg dairy ten animals for each human 50 billion chickens killed for food 70 billion farm animals two-thirds factory-farmed expanding rapidly Cerrado Amazon 18% 34 million km2 or 26% of dry land area of Africa 20% of these degraded meat 20,000 liters of water pound 100,000 liters of water drives biod collapse incapable reversing greatest market failure the world has seen international climate negotiations only way that a 2015 agreement can achieve a 2° [C] goal is to shut down the global economy socio-physical impossibility now current trajectory over over 3 °C third quarter considered “catastrophic” low latitudes uninhabitable flooding of urban infrastructure drastic decreases in agricultural productivity even greater unfathomable impacts historical could change cap cannot change logic of accumulation unfeasibility not within the aims of global capitalism never occupy carbon budget 600 Gt Decoupling eco-efficient technologies miracle increased production consumption less pressure on ecosystems relative not absolute rebound effect demand for energy offset efficiency gain offset greater rate there is no circular economy second law of thermodynamics low-carbon renewable s distance Kw/h 10 times more reinforced concrete and steel and 20 times more copper and aluminum than a coal- fired plant lessen the environmental impact of capitalism is to reduce, in absolute terms, the consumption of energy and goods incompatible expansive functioning scarcity of certain inputs nullify exacerbates specifically impossible impossibility of “internalizing” the costs of increasing environmental damage price multiplying impossible total value less monetary expression of the value of the natural heritage that was destroyed climate mineral water biological disruptions in ecosystems biodiversity cannot be solved policy reforms drastic reconfiguration of the system itself inexorable trend because economic growth rates already declining 0.9% decrease decade ago inescapable pandemic accelerate next more brutal and deadly the longer it is denied impossible grow its way out of poverty and environmental degradation impossible delays broader acceptance arguments mantra absence of alt s hypnotic power of this mantra aware cling possible, and more than ever necessary, to overcome the idea that failure has left no alt not binary socialist not ipso facto imply the viability of capitalism | ['Let us first define these two points. Positive climate feedbacks are defined as mechanisms of climate warming that are positively influenced by climate itself. As warming increases, so too will the magnitude of these mechanisms, forming a positive feedback loop (Dean et al. 2018). Such positive feedback loops are already at work in the climate system (which includes the oceans, land surface, cryosphere, biosphere, and atmosphere). As Rijsberman and Swart (1990) state, “temperature increases beyond 1°C may elicit rapid, unpredictable, and non-linear responses that could lead to extensive ecosystem damage.” Tipping points have been defined as critical thresholds in [climate] forcing1 or some feature of a system, at which a small perturbation can qualitatively alter the state or development of a system (Lenton and Schellnhuber 2007; Duarte et al. 2012; Lenton et al. 2015, 2019). In The Seneca Effect: Why Growth is Slow but Collapse is Rapid (2017), Ugo Bardi describes how, in many processes, the buildup of tensors in a system leads to its collapse: “One way to look at the tendency of complex systems to collapse is in terms of tipping points. This concept indicates that collapse is not a smooth transition; it is a drastic change that takes the system from one state to another, going briefly through an unstable state.” The notion of tipping point revives not only Seneca’s fascinating dictum that gave Bardi’s book its title2 but also the famous Hegelian question of the transition from quantity to quality, a relatively neglected mechanism in accounting for change, either in evolution (Eldredge and Gould 1972/1980) or in large-scale components of the Earth’s system, such as climate change, biomass loss, ocean circulation change, ice melting, etc. In his Encyclopedia of the Philosophical Sciences (1817), Hegel writes3:', 'On the one hand, the quantitative determinations of existence can be altered without its quality being thereby affected (…). [O]n the other hand, this process of indiscriminately increasing and decreasing has its limits and the quality is altered by overstepping those limits. (…) When a quantitative change occurs, it appears at first as something quite innocuous, and yet there is still something else hidden behind it and this seemingly innocuous alteration of the quantitative is so to speak a ruse (List) through which the qualitative is captured.', 'In complex systems, it is generally impossible to predict the precise moment when an accumulation of successive quantitative changes will, in Hegel’s terms, “overstep a limit.” For Antônio Donato Nobre (Rawnsley 2020), we have already crossed the climate red line: “in terms of the Earth’s climate, we have gone beyond the point of no return. There’s no doubt about this.” Many other scientists agree, more or less explicitly, with this perception. Whether or not we have crossed this red line, it can be said that the further one proceeds in a process of small quantitative changes, the greater the risk of crossing a tipping point. Michael Mann uses a suggestive image to speak of this situation: “we are walking out onto a minefield. The farther we walk out onto that minefield, the greater the likelihood that we set off those explosives.”4 Tipping points, therefore, involve analyzing processes that present increasing risks of inflection or nonlinear evolution. Regarding climate change specifically, two hypotheses primarily occupy the debate between experts: the risk that a 2 °C warming could take the Earth system to much higher temperatures (recently dubbed “Hothouse Earth”) and the hypothesis contended by James Hansen and colleagues (2016) of an exponential rise in sea level, well above 2.5 meters by 2100 (discussed in the Sect. 8.3 “Higher Rises in Sea Level”).', '8.1 The “Hothouse Earth” Hypothesis', 'In a high-impact article, Will Steffen and 14 colleagues (2018) examine the possibility of combined positive feedback loops leading the Earth system to cross tipping points, beyond which irreversible warming dynamics “could prevent stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature rises and cause continued warming on a ‘Hothouse Earth’ pathway even as human emissions are reduced.” Especially important in this paper is the hypothesis that this tipping point can be crossed at a level of average global warming no higher than 2 °C above the pre-industrial period: “a 2 °C warming could activate important tipping elements,5 raising the temperature further to activate other tipping elements in a domino-like cascade that could take the Earth System to even higher temperatures.” The current trajectory “could lead to conditions that resemble planetary states that were last seen several millions of years ago, conditions that would be inhospitable to current human societies and to many other contemporary species.” The Hothouse Earth hypothesis suggests an increasing warming along the following pathways:', '(A) Current warming of 1.1 °C–1.5 °C (2015–2025/2030) above the pre-industrial period, here defined as ~200 years BP. The average global temperature is already significantly warmer than the Mid-Holocene Warm Period (~7000 years BP, 0.6 °C–0.9 °C above the pre-industrial period) and is nearly as warm as the Eemian, the last interglacial period (129–116 thousand years ago). “The Earth System has likely departed from the glacial-interglacial limit cycle of the late Quaternary” (Steffen et al. 2018).', '(B) Current atmospheric CO2 concentrations (410–415 ppm) have already reached the lower bound of Mid-Pliocene levels (400–450 ppm). During the Mid-Pliocene (4–3 million years ago), global average temperature was 2 °C–3 °C higher than the pre-industrial period. Although already catastrophic, stabilizing global warming at this level would still be theoretically possible if, and only if, the Paris Agreement were fully complied with, including successive revisions of the GHG emission reduction goals. This best-case scenario is becoming more unrealistic as each day goes by.', '(C) Mid-Miocene Climate Optimum (16–11.6 million years ago), with temperatures of as much as 4 °C–5 °C above the pre-industrial period. This is, according to the authors, the most likely scenario by 2100, under current GHG emission levels.', 'Note that the projections of heating by 2100 proposed by Will Steffen and colleagues are analogous to those of the IPCC’s RCP8.5 W/m2 scenario. The Hothouse Earth hypothesis distances itself from the IPCC analysis precisely because it proposes that this level of warming can become irreversible as soon as a 2 °C warming threshold is crossed.', '8.1.1 Heightened Climate Sensitivity', 'It is possible that the next IPCC Assessment Report (AR6 2021) will incorporate the Hothouse Earth hypothesis because new climate models point to heightened climate sensitivity. One must remember that the various projections of magnitude and speed of global warming depend, in part, on estimates of how the global climate system will respond to a given change in atmospheric concentrations of GHG (expressed in CO2-eq). The debate revolves around specifying the magnitude of global warming once these concentrations double from 280 ppm in 1880 to 560 ppm. (As seen in the previous chapter, these concentrations exceeded 410 ppm in 2019 and are increasing rapidly.) The climate system immediate response (or transient climate response, TCR) is defined as “the global mean surface warming at the time of doubling of CO2 in an idealized 1% per year CO2 increase experiment” (Knutti et al. 2017). The climate system long-term response to the doubling of atmospheric concentrations of GHG is referred to in climate models as Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS). ECS “has reached almost iconic status as the single number that describes how severe climate change will be” (Knutti et al. 2017). The timescale difference between these two parameters (TCR and ECS) is mainly explained by the fact that the ocean takes centuries or millennia to reach a new thermal equilibrium. In any case, both parameters define the carbon budget, that is, the amount of GHG that can be emitted if we maintain a certain probability that a given level of global surface warming will not be exceeded. Of course, the higher the climate sensitivity, the lower the carbon budget. In turn, the carbon budget is strongly conditioned by the ability of positive climate feedbacks to increase the climate response to a given level of atmospheric GHG concentrations.', 'Although the problem of specifying the magnitude of these climate responses to higher atmospheric concentrations of GHG and to positive climate feedbacks dates back to Svante Arrhenius (1896), climate scientists have not been able to decisively narrow the margins of uncertainty on this (Rahmstorf 2008). In its Fourth Assessment Report (AR4, 2007), the IPCC estimated climate sensitivity “likely [> 66% probability] to be in the range 2°C–4.5°C with a best estimate of about 3°C, and is very unlikely to be less than 1.5°C. Values substantially higher than 4.5°C cannot be excluded.” This estimate of 3 °C (best estimate) was the consensus some years ago (Knutti and Hegerl 2008). But the current Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) has reported values that are between 2.1 °C and 4.7 °C, slightly higher, therefore, than those of the IPCC (2007), but always with an uncomfortable margin of uncertainty. In its latest report (AR5 2013), for example, the IPCC defined the upper range, with a 10% probability of exceeding 6 °C. That said, the CMIP5 is now giving way to the next generation of climate models, finalized since March 2019, which will make up the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). In at least eight of these new models, the ECS has come in at 5 °C or warmer (2.8 °C–5.8 °C) (Belcher et al. 2019). The IPCC scientists who should draw on these new models in their Sixth Assessment Report (AR6 2021) do not yet know how to explain this heightened sensitivity. But, according to Reto Knutti, the trend “is definitely real. There’s no question” (Voosen 2019).', 'In addition to greater climate sensitivity, the Hothouse Earth hypothesis becomes all the more likely given the combined influence of several closely interconnected positive climate feedback mechanisms on the magnitude and speed of warming. We shall take a quick look at five of them:', '(1) Anthropogenic aerosols (sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, ammonia, hydrocarbons, black soot, etc.) and their interactions can both cool and warm the atmosphere. As Joyce Penner (2019) said, “these particles remain one of the greatest lingering sources of uncertainty” in climate change predictions. An eventual lower use of fossil fuels, especially coal, will diminish the so-called aerosol masking effect, leading to additional global warming estimated between 0.5 °C and 1.1 °C (Samset et al. 2018). Yangyang Xu et al. (2018) assert that this additional warming is already at work in the climate system, and, therefore, “global warming will happen faster than we think.” This is because the recent decline in coal use in China and other countries, however modest, has led to a faster decrease in air pollution than the IPCC, and most climate models have assumed: “lower pollution is better for crops and public health. But aerosols, including sulfates, nitrates, and organic compounds, reflect sunlight. This shield of aerosols has kept the planet cooler, possibly by as much as 0.7°C globally.” The urgently needed transition toward low-carbon energy sources will, therefore, lead to an immediate additional increase of at least 0.5 °C in global average temperatures, with relevant regional differences.', '(2) Oceans sequester 93% of the current Earth’s energy imbalance (EEI). Much of this thermal energy will remain submerged for millennia (with already catastrophic consequences for marine life). But there are recent signals that “the oceans might be starting to release some of that pent-up thermal energy, which could contribute to significant global temperature increases in the coming years. (…) Given the enormity of the ocean’s thermal load, even a tiny change has a big impact” (Katz 2015).', '(3) Change in oceanic and terrestrial carbon cycles. The more the oceans heat up, the less their ability to absorb and store CO2 and, hence, the greater the amount of these gases warming the atmosphere. With regard to changes in the carbon cycle specifically on land, the Global Carbon Project (Global Carbon Budget 2016) has warned that:', 'Climate change will affect carbon cycle processes in a way that will exacerbate the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere. Atmospheric CO2 growth rate was a record high in 2015 in spite of no growth in fossil fuel and industry emissions because of a weaker CO2 sink on land from hot and dry El Niño conditions.', 'According to Michael Zika and Karl-Heinz Erb (2009), approximately 2% of the global terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP)—the net amount of carbon captured by vegetation through photosynthesis—are already lost each year “due to dryland degradation, or between 4% and 10% of the potential NPP in drylands. NPP losses amount to 20–40% of the potential NPP on degraded agricultural areas in the global average and above 55% in some world regions.”6 But according to Alessandro Baccini and colleagues (2017), even tropical forests are no longer carbon sinks. Actually, they have become a net carbon source due to deforestation and reductions in carbon density within standing forests (degradation or disturbance), with the latter accounting for 68.9% of overall losses. Based on a 12-year study of MODIS pantropical satellite data, the authors provide evidence that “the world’s tropical forests are a net carbon source of 425.2 ± 92.0 teragrams of carbon per year [425 Mt year−1]. This net release of carbon consists of losses of 861.7 ± 80.2 Tg C year−1 and gains of 436.5 ± 31.0 Tg C year−1.”', '(4) The ice–albedo feedback. Albedo is the fraction of solar energy that is reflected from the Earth into space. Because ice and snow are white, they have a high albedo. Ice surface has an albedo of 90%, and, inversely, dark water has an albedo of less than 10%. Peter Wadhams (2015) estimates that “the effect of sea ice retreat in the Arctic alone has been to reduce the average albedo of the Earth from 52% to 48% and this is the same as adding a quarter to the amount of the heating of the planet due to the GHG.”', '(5) The potentially explosive magnitude and speed of GHG (CO2, CH4, and N2O) release into the atmosphere. This is due to forest fires, the melting of ice in shallow seabeds surrounding the Arctic Ocean (Wadhams 2016), and collapse of land permafrost that is thawing much faster than previously thought, often for the first time since the last glaciation (Turetsky et al. 2019).', '8.2 The Arctic Methane Conundrum', 'These accelerators of global warming cannot be studied separately because they act in synergy. We will discuss, however, only one aspect of these climate feedbacks: the ongoing processes that release carbon, especially methane (a gas that has been gaining visibility in research over the past two decades), into the atmosphere, at high latitudes. Until the early 1970s, methane was considered to have no direct effect on the climate. Since then, many studies evidenced by Gavin Schmidt (2004) have shown the growing importance of methane as a powerful factor in global warming.', 'Unlike the multi-secular permanence of CO2 (with a multi-millennial “long tail”; see Archer 2009), methane remains in the atmosphere for only about 9–12 years. However, its global warming potential (GWP) is much higher than that of CO2. The IPCC Fifth Assessment (2013) updated methane’s GWP upward by 20%, making it up to 100 times higher than that of CO2 over a 5-year horizon, 72–86 times higher over a 20-year horizon, and 34 times higher over a 100-year horizon. Furthermore, according to Maryam Etminan and colleagues (2016), the radiative forcing of methane between 1750 and 2011 is about 25% higher (increasing from 0.48 W/ m2–0.61 W/m2) than the value found in the IPCC (2013) assessment.7 In the short term—as the next 20 years are the most important in the threshold situation we find ourselves in—the global warming potential of methane is, therefore, 72–100 times greater than that of CO2.', 'It is important to remember, moreover, that the greenhouse effect of methane does not cease completely after 12 years, since it is then oxidized and destroyed by hydroxyl radicals (OH*), being transformed (through various mechanisms in the troposphere and the stratosphere) into CO2 and water vapor (H2O), two other greenhouse gases.8 Finally, and perhaps more importantly, methane and the warming of the atmosphere reinforce each other. As Schmidt (2004) summarizes well, “methane rapidly increases in a warming climate with a small lag behind temperature. Therefore, not only does methane affect climate through greenhouse effects, but it in turn can evidently be affected by climate itself.” The importance of this interaction was underlined by Joshua Dean and colleagues (2018), notably in ecosystems characterized by high carbon concentration, such as wetlands, marine and freshwater systems, permafrost, and methane hydrates: “increased CH4 emissions from these systems would in turn induce further climate change, resulting in a positive climate feedback.” In this paper, Joshua Dean and colleagues quantify the direct relationship between heating and the production of methane:', 'Experimental temperature rises of 10 °C have caused CH4 production to increase by 2 orders of magnitude, with 30 °C causing CH4 production to increase by as much as 6 orders of magnitude; short-term temperature rises of this magnitude above zero are possible during the Arctic growing season and could become more common as regional air temperatures increase.', 'Methane atmospheric concentrations increased from about 720 ppb in the eighteenth century to 1870 ppb in September 2019, according to NOAA measurements. Figure 8.1 shows continued acceleration since 2007, after a 7-year period of very slow growth.', 'Since 2014, methane concentrations have been rising faster than at any time in the past two decades, leading us to approach the most greenhouse gas-intensive scenarios (Saunois et al. 2016; Ed Dlugokencky, NOAA/ESRL 2019).9 An average annual growth in atmospheric methane concentrations of around 5 ppb would be sufficient for the warming produced solely by methane to squash any hope of maintaining a global warming average of 2 °C above the pre-industrial period, the Paris [[FIGURE 8.1 OMITTED]] Agreement’s least ambitious target (Nisbet et al. 2019). According to NOAA data, between 2014 and 2019, methane atmospheric concentrations had an annual average increase of over 9 ppb, against 5.1 ppb in the previous 5 years (2009–2013). This methane escalation was not expected at all in any of the IPCC future greenhouse gas scenarios and clearly raises extreme concern, as anthropogenic methane emissions already caused a warming effect that is about one-third that of CO2 emissions (Myhre 2017). The current acceleration is probably a result of three complementary causes, identified by Euan Nisbet and colleagues (2019) and then by Sara E. Mikaloff Fletcher and Hinrich Schaefer (2019):', '(1) A surge in biogenic methane emissions, whether from wetlands, ruminants, waste, or all of these. The increase in ruminants is certainly an important factor, as “livestock inventories show that ruminant emissions began to rise steeply around 2002 and can account for about half of the CH4 increase since 2007” (Fletcher and Schaefer 2019). The growth of livestock in Brazil, which accounts for almost 80% of the original vegetation cover removal in the Amazon and the Cerrado (Meirelles 2005, 2014; De Sy 2015; Barbosa et al. 2015; Marques 2019; Azevedo 201910), plays a relevant role in this global increase in methane emissions. In 2018, Brazil was the world’s largest exporter of beef, providing close to 20% of total global beef exports, and was the second largest commercial cattle herd in the world (232 million head in 2019). Currently, Brazilian livestock occupies approximately 2.2 million km2, of which 700 thousand km2 are in the Brazilian Amazon (Barbosa et al. 2015). Methane emissions in Brazil, mainly from enteric fermentation of cattle and from manure deposition in pastures, have grown 163% since 1970 (Azevedo et al. 2018). As is well-known, a slowdown in global warming implies a drastic reduction or abandonment of the carnivorous diet, especially of cattle and sheep (see Chap. 12, Sect. 12.4 “Hypobiosphere: Functional and Nonfunctional Species to Man”).', '(2) A decline, likely caused by anthropogenic pollution, in the amount of CH4 destroyed in the atmosphere through CH4 oxidation.', '(3) A strong rise in methane emissions from fossil fuels. This third factor is not only due to the global increase in natural gas, oil, and coal consumption but also, and perhaps most importantly, to methane leaks in all stages of the fossil fuel industry, notably during gas extraction through hydraulic fracturing, as well as methane leaks from active and abandoned coal mines, as discussed in Chap. 5 (Sect. 5.4 “Unconventional Oil and Gas: Maximized Devastation”) (Alvarez et al. 2012; Tollefson et al. 2013; Pandey 2019). A crucial point in these processes must be highlighted: the possibility that at least part of the recent increase in atmospheric methane concentrations is already due to feedback loops independent of human action. As noted above, methane rapidly increases in a warming climate (Schmidt 2004; Dean et al. 2018). From this finding, Nisbet and colleagues (2019) advance the hypothesis that the acceleration of global warming since 2014 could be at the root of an increase in wetland CH4 production. In the words of Fletcher and Schaefer (2019): “If natural wetlands, or changes in atmospheric chemistry, indeed accelerated the CH4 rise, it may be a climate feedback that humans have little hope of slowing.”', '8.2.1 The Permafrost Carbon Feedback', 'In addition to the three sources of anthropogenic methane emission noted above, a fourth factor is the carbon release of rapidly melting permafrost. The process is well detected, but its current magnitude and, above all, its short-term acceleration have been the subject of intense debate in the scientific community. Given the high global warming potential of methane, this uncertainty represents an important hindrance to the development of more reliable climate projections. Permafrost is defined as ground exposed to temperatures equal or less than zero for more than 2 consecutive years; “it is composed of soil, rock or sediment, often with large chunks of ice mixed in” (Turetsky et al. 2019). Permafrost covers 24% of the Northern Hemisphere’s land (23 million km2). Most of these soils have remained frozen since the last glaciation and may have depths of over 700 meters in some regions of northern Siberia and Canada (Schaefer et al. 2012). The estimate of Gustaf Hugelius and colleagues (2014) on the amount of carbon stored globally in permafrost is slightly lower than previous estimates. In their study, soil organic carbon stocks were estimated separately for different depth ranges (0–0.3 m, 0–1 m, 1–2 m, and 2–3 m). According to the authors, total estimated soil organic carbon storage for the permafrost region is around 1300 petagrams (uncertainty range of 1100–1500 Pg or Gt), of which around 500 Gt is in non-permafrost soils, seasonally thawed, while around 800 Gt is perennially frozen. These soils contain approximately twice the amount of carbon currently present in the atmosphere.', 'Permafrost status is monitored by two networks—Thermal State of Permafrost (TSP) and Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM)—coordinated by the International Permafrost Association (IPA). About 7 years ago, a UNEP report, titled Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost (Schaefer et al. 2012), warned:', 'Overall, these observations [from TSP and CALM] indicate that large-scale thawing of permafrost may have already started. [...] A global temperature increase of 3 °C means a 6 °C increase in the Arctic, resulting in anywhere between 30 to 85% loss of near-surface permafrost. […] Carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane emissions from thawing permafrost could amplify warming due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. This amplification is called the permafrost carbon feedback.', 'Since 2012, the permafrost carbon feedback has become more and more clear. Given the amplification of Arctic surface air temperature increase, average temperatures in some of its areas have already reached about 3 °C above the 1961–1990 period. As we have seen in the previous chapter, other measurements show a 2.7 °C rise in the whole region’s average air temperature since 1971 (3.1 °C during the winter) (Box et al. 2019). This faster Arctic warming (more than double the global average) is causing greater thawing of these soils, activating bacterial decomposition of the organic matter contained in them so that most of their carbon will be released into the atmosphere, either in the form of CO2 (aerobic decomposition) or CH4 (anaerobic decomposition), exacerbating climate change. Christian Knoblauch and colleagues (2018) emphasize the importance of methane released in bacterial decomposition in anoxic soils, which may contribute more substantially to global warming than previously assumed. Elizabeth M. Herndon (2018) accepts the results of research done by Knoblauch and colleagues and reiterates that “CH4 production from anoxic (oxygen-free) systems may account for a higher proportion of global warming potential (GWP) than previously appreciated, surpassing contributions of CO2.” Guillaume Lamarche-Gagnon and colleagues (2019) have provided “evidence from the Greenland ice sheet for the existence of large subglacial methane reserves, where production is not offset by local sinks and there is net export of methane to the atmosphere during the summer melt season.”', '8.2.2 Methane Hydrates or Clathrates: The Thawing of Subsea Permafrost', 'Joshua Dean and colleagues (2018) assert that “methane hydrates11 are not expected to contribute significantly to global CH4 emissions in the near or long-term future.” Although shared by the IPCC (AR4 2007)12 and by many other scientists,13 this assumption has been challenged by Natalia Shakhova, Igor Semiletov, Evgeny Chuvilin, Paul Beckwith, John Nissen, Peter Wadhams, Gail Whiteman, and Chris Hope, among many other climate scientists and Arctic specialists, in several articles and public interventions.14 According to these authors, there is an increasing risk of irreversible destabilization of sediments in the Arctic Ocean’s seafloor, with a potentially disastrous release of methane into the atmosphere in the horizon of a few decades or even abruptly. There is also consensus among them that the greatest and most imminent danger comes from the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS), the most extensive continental shelf in the world’s oceans, encompassing the Laptev Sea, the East Siberian Sea, and the Russian part of the Chukchi Sea. Its mean depth is 50 meters, and more than 75% of its area of 2.1 million km2 is less than 40 meters deep. In the past, sea ice protected the ESAS seabed from solar radiation. But that was the past. The Arctic sea ice is currently 40% smaller than it was only 40 years ago (Urban 2020). Figure 8.2 shows the extent of the Arctic sea ice retreat in October 2019, since 1979.', 'As can be seen from this chart, monthly sea ice extent reached a record low in October 2019. According to the NSIDC, “the linear rate of sea ice decline for October is 81,400 square kilometers (31,400 square miles) per year, or 9.8% per decade relative to the 1981–2010 average.” The 13 lowest sea ice extents all occurred in the last 13 years. Arctic sea ice extent averaged for October 2019 was 5.66 million km2 (2.19 million square miles), the lowest in the 41-year continuous satellite record. This was 230,000 km2 (88,800 square miles) below that observed in 2012— the previous record low for the month—and 2.69 million square kilometers (1.04 million square miles) below the 1981–2010 average.', '[FIGURE 8.2 OMITTED]', 'During this period, there were sharp declines in the summers of 1989, 1997–1999, 2007, 2012, and 2019.', 'The date of the first so-called Blue Ocean Event (BOE), that is, the moment when the extent of the Arctic sea ice in September will fall below one million square kilometers, is uncertain. According to Mark Urban (2020), “Arctic summers could become mostly ice-free in 30 years, and possibly sooner if current trends continue.” How much sooner is still open to debate. What is certain is that the first BOE looks more and more imminent and that the ESAS has become increasingly exposed, for several months, to solar radiation, which obviously accelerates its heating. It has warmed by up to 17 °C, and the thawing of the subsea permafrost is already releasing methane in annual quantities no smaller than those of terrestrial Arctic ecosystems. The current atmospheric CH4 emissions from the ESAS are estimated to be between 8 and 17 teragrams (or million tons) annually (Shakhova et al. 2017, 2019). Peter Wadhams never ceases to warn us of the particular importance of this fact, as we can see, for example, in his book from 2016: “We must remember—many scientists, alas, forget— that it is only since 2005 that substantial summer open water has existed on Arctic shelves, so we are in an entirely new situation with a new melt phenomenon taking place.”', 'Already in 2008, a scientific expedition aboard the Russian ship Jacob Smirnitskyi recorded, for the first time, large amounts of methane release from the ESAS seafloor. Orjan Gustafsson wrote about this (Connor 2008):', 'An extensive area of intense methane release was found. At earlier sites we had found elevated levels of dissolved methane. Yesterday, for the first time, we documented a field where the release was so intense that the methane did not have time to dissolve into the seawater but was rising as methane bubbles to the sea surface. These ‘methane chimneys’ were documented on echo sounder and with seismic instruments.', 'Flying over the Arctic at latitudes as far as 82° north, Eric Kort and colleagues (2012) found significant amounts of methane being released from the ocean into the atmosphere over open leads and regions with fractional sea ice cover:', 'We estimate that sea–air fluxes amount to around 2 mg d−1 m−2, comparable to emissions seen on the Siberian shelf. We suggest that the surface waters of the Arctic Ocean represent a potentially important source of methane, which could prove sensitive to changes in sea-ice cover.', 'The estimate of Eric Kort and his colleagues, reported by Steve Connor (2012), is that the quantities of methane observed could be large enough to affect the global climate: “We were surprised to see these enhanced methane levels at these high latitudes. Our observations really point to the ocean surface as the source, which was not what we had expected.” This ebullition of methane is now observed through the Arctic Ocean’s water column15 even in winter, through flaw polynyas (areas of open water surrounded by sea ice) which increased by up to five times during the last decades (Shakhova et al. 2019).', 'In addition to Eric Kort and his team, many other scientists warn that current amounts of methane incorporated into the atmosphere from the Arctic seabed are already sufficient to strongly interfere with the pace of global warming. According to Peter Wadhams (2016), the global feedback arising from the Arctic snow and ice retreats is already adding 50% to the warming which results from the addition of CO2:', 'We have reached the point at which we should no longer simply say that adding CO2 to the atmosphere is warming our planet. Instead we have to say that the CO2 which we have added to the atmosphere has already warmed our planet to the point where ice/snow feedback processes are themselves increasing the effect by a further 50%. We are not far from the moment when the feedbacks will themselves be driving the change – that is, we will not need to add more CO2 to the atmosphere at all, but will get the warming anyway. This is a stage called runaway warming, which is possibly what led to the transformation of Venus into a hot, dry, dead world.', 'Mark Urban (2020) estimates that “once dark water replaces brilliant ice, Earth could warm substantially, equivalent to the warming triggered by the additional release of a trillion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.” There seem to be strong arguments estimating that the current level of interference from Arctic methane release, and in particular from ESAS, is still, however, very small compared to its immense potential for accelerating global warming. The ESAS became subsea permafrost 12 or 13 millennia ago at the end of the last glaciation, but during the Last Glacial Maximum (from 26.5 to 19 ka), sea level was more than 100 meters lower than it is today (Englander 2014), and the entire shelf area was exposed above sea level, allowing for the accumulation of sediments of high organic content. It is estimated that shallow methane hydrate deposits currently occupy about 57% (1.25 million km2) of the ESAS’ seabed and that they could preserve more than 1400 Gt of methane, which makes this region the largest and most vulnerable store of subsea CH4 in the world (Wadhams 2016; Shakhova et al. 2019).', '8.2.3 A Slow-Motion Time Bomb or a Methane and CO2 Burst?', 'If all these observations suggest that the release of CO2 and methane will continue to increase in the Arctic, exacerbating warming, the rate of increase is still uncertain, especially on the horizon of this century. Ted Schuur created the metaphor “slow-motion time bomb,” exploding initially in a way that is imperceptible (Borenstein 2006). The expression was reused in the film Death Spiral and the Methane Time Bomb (2012). Slow motion because, according to Schuur and colleagues (2015):', 'At the proposed rates, the observed and projected emissions of CH4 and CO2 from thawing permafrost are unlikely to cause abrupt climate change over a period of a few years to a decade. Instead, permafrost carbon emissions are likely to be felt over decades to centuries as northern regions warm, making climate change happen faster than we would expect on the basis of projected emissions from human activities alone.', 'But, some studies in recent years project a melting of the permafrost (land and subsea) that is faster or much faster than previously supposed. Kevin Schaefer and colleagues (2011), for instance:', 'predict that the permafrost carbon feedback will change the Arctic from a carbon sink to a source after the mid-2020s and is strong enough to cancel 42–88% of the total global land sink. The thaw and decay of permafrost carbon is irreversible and accounting for the permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) will require larger reductions in fossil fuel emissions to reach a target atmospheric CO2 concentration.', 'An abrupt thaw in terrestrial permafrost could be initiated or exacerbated, for example, by wildfires or through thermokarst processes.16 Fires in the boreal regions (above 50oN) reduce the albedo by covering the reflective white snow with black soot that absorbs sunlight, accelerating permafrost melting, bacterial activity, and the subsequent release of CO2 and methane into the atmosphere. James L. Partain Jr. and colleagues (2015) estimate that climate change in Alaska has increased the risk of a fire year as severe as 2015 by 34%–60%. Alaska wildfires have increased dramatically since 1990 (Sanford et al. 2015), and fires in this state have spread for more than five thousand square kilometers only in June and July 2019, the hottest 2 months on record. In these 2 months, satellites detected more than 100 wildfires raging above the Arctic Circle. Clare Nullis from the WMO declared that in June 2019 alone, Arctic fires emitted 50 Mt of CO2 into the atmosphere: “this is more than was released by Arctic fires in the same month between 2010 and 2018 combined” (WMO 2019). The magnitude of these wildfires is unprecedented, and, more importantly, they have ignited peat soils, which burn deeper in the ground and release huge quantities of methane and CO2.', 'Regarding thermokarst processes and the formation of thaw lakes in which seeps and ebullition (bubbling) of methane are created, more than 150,000 seeps have already been identified (2019). Already in the beginning of the century, measurements of methane emissions from thaw lakes in northern Siberia, especially through ebullition, were much higher than those recorded previously. Katey Walter and colleagues (2006) showed that “ebullition accounts for 95% of methane emissions from these lakes, and that methane flux from thaw lakes in our study region may be five times higher than previously estimated.” Walter warned that the effects of those emissions “can be huge. It’s coming out a lot and there’s a lot more to come out” (Borenstein 2006). Merritt Turetsky and colleagues (2019) claim that current models of GHG release are mistaken in assuming that the permafrost thaws gradually from the surface downward:', 'Frozen soil doesn’t just lock up carbon — it physically holds the landscape together. Across the Arctic and Boreal regions, permafrost is collapsing suddenly as pockets of ice within it melt. Instead of a few centimetres of soil thawing each year, several metres of soil can become destabilized within days or weeks. The land can sink and be inundated by swelling lakes and wetlands. (…) Permafrost is thawing much more quickly than models have predicted, with unknown consequences for greenhouse-gas release.', 'The authors estimate that abrupt permafrost thawing will occur in less than 20% of frozen land and could release between 60 and 100 Gt of carbon by 2300. They also project that another 200 Gt of carbon will be released in other regions that will thaw gradually. However, given that abrupt processes release more carbon per square meter—and particularly more methane—than does gradual thaw, “the climate impacts of the two processes will be similar. So, together, the impacts of thawing permafrost on Earth’s climate could be twice that expected from current models.”', 'Let us come back to the ESAS subsea permafrost. Shakhova et al. (2019) observe that there is “a potential for possible massive/abrupt release of CH4, whether from destabilizing hydrates or from free gas accumulations beneath permafrost; such a release requires only a trigger.” This trigger can occur at any moment because, as the authors remind us:', 'The ESAS is a tectonically and seismically active area of the world ocean. During seismic events, a large amount of over-pressurized gas can be delivered to the water column, not only via existing gas migration pathways, but also through permafrost breaks.', 'Although ESAS is possibly the biggest problem, acceleration in the speed of methane release has also been observed from other Arctic continental shelves, such as the Kara Sea shelf. Irina Streletskaya and colleagues (2018) studied the methane content in ground ice and sediments of the Kara seacoast. The study states that “ permafrost degradation due to climate change will be exacerbated along the coasts where declining sea ice is likely to result in accelerated rates of coastal erosion (…), further releasing the methane which is not yet accounted for in the models.” Likewise, Alexey Portnov and colleagues (2013, 2014) measured methane release in the South Kara Sea shelf and in the West Yamal shelf, in northeast Siberia. In their 2013 report, they show that “this Arctic shelf region where seafloor gas release is widespread suggests that permafrost has degraded more significantly than previously thought.” Their studies provide an example of another Arctic marine shelf where seafloor gas release is widespread and where permafrost degradation is an ongoing process. Commenting on both of these studies, Brian Stallard cites the following projection proposed by Portnov: “If the temperature of the oceans increases by two degrees as suggested by some reports, it will accelerate the thawing to the extreme. A warming climate could lead to an explosive gas release from the shallow areas.”17', 'Natalia Shakhova and Igor Semiletov fear there will be an escape of 50 Gt of methane into the atmosphere in the short-term only from ESAS. For both of them, a vast methane belch is “highly possible at any time” (Pearce 2013; Mascarelli 2009). Whiteman et al. (2013) reinforce this perception: “a 50-gigatonne (Gt) reservoir of methane, stored in the form of hydrates, exists on the East Siberian Arctic Shelf. It is likely to be emitted as the seabed warms, either steadily over 50 years or suddenly.” Peter Wadhams calculates that in case of a decade-long pulse of 50 GtCH4, “the extra temperature due to the methane by 2040 is 0.6°C, a substantial extra contribution.” And he adds: “although the peak of 0.6 °C is reached 25 years after emissions begin, a rise of 0.3–0.4°C occurs within a very few years.” The likelihood that such a methane pulse will occur is considerable, according to Wadhams. If it does, it will accelerate positive feedback loops that can release even more methane into the atmosphere at an exponential rate of progression, leading to warming that is completely outside even the most pessimistic projections. This is, in any case, the reason for the various interventions of the Arctic Methane Emergency Group (AMEG), a UK-based group of scientists, who affirm (2012) that18:', 'The tendency among scientists and the media has been to ignore or understate the seriousness of the situation in the Arctic. AMEG is using best available evidence and best available explanations for the processes at work. These processes include a number of vicious cycles which are growing in power exponentially, involving ocean, atmosphere, sea ice, snow, permafrost and methane. If these cycles are allowed to continue, the end result will be runaway global warming.', 'The “runaway global warming” conjecture, feared by the AMEG scientists, but rejected by the IPCC,19 would be able to lead the Earth toward conditions that prevail today in Venus. This conjecture may be interesting from a strictly scientific point of view, but it is totally useless from the point of view of the fate of vertebrates and forests, because both would cease to exist under conditions that are much less extreme. The scenario of warming above 3 °C over the next few decades, defined as “catastrophic” (Xu and Ramanathan 2017), and the collapse of biodiversity already underway, addressed in Chaps. 10 and 11, will possibly be enough to cross the tipping points conducive to a “Hothouse Earth” pathway, as described above by Will Steffen and colleagues (2018). When Gaia Vince (2011) asked what the chances of survival of our young species would be in such circumstances, Chris Stringer, a paleoanthropologist at London’s Natural History Museum, affirmed:', 'One of the most worrying things is permafrost melting. If it continues to melt as we think it’s already doing in some regions, we may well have a runaway greenhouse effect. We’re also very dependent on a few staple crops, such as wheat and rice. If they get hit by climate change, we’re in trouble. We’re medium- to large-size mammals, we take a long time to grow up, we only produce one child at a time and we’re demanding of our environment — this type of mammal is the most vulnerable. So, no, we’re not immune from extinction. (...) The danger is that climate change will drive us into pockets with the best remaining environments. The worst-case scenario could be that everyone disappears except those who survive near the North and South poles — maybe a few hundred million, if the environment still supports them — and those will be the remaining humans. The problem is that once you’ve got humans isolated in small areas, they are much more vulnerable to extinction through chance events.', 'Perhaps the most privileged part of the human species will be able to adapt to the consequences of a drastic shrinking of the cryosphere, with global average warming above 5 °C and widespread degradation of the biosphere. At bay, in high latitudes, however, they will live in a terribly hostile world, one that is tragically depleted of animal and plant life and certainly unrelated to the organized societies of our times.', '8.3 Higher Rises in Sea Level', '“I don’t think 10 years ago scientists realized just how quickly the potential for rapid sea level rise was,” affirmed Maureen Raymo, Director of the Lamont–Doherty Core Repository at the Lamont–Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University (Lieberman 2016). The rise in sea level is another central factor in the destabilization of contemporary societies. It threatens coastal ecosystems, urban and transportation infrastructure, and many nuclear power plants, in addition to flooding and salinizing aquifers and deltas that are suitable for agriculture. As we shall see, the IPCC AR5 (2013) projections have not captured the increasing speed of this process because their predictions of sea level rise do not include the contribution of melting ice sheets, which has emerged as the main driver of this. Sea level rise is linked to two major factors driven by climate change; both are in acceleration: (1) thermal expansion and (2) melting glaciers and the loss of Greenland’s and Antarctica’s ice sheets. According to GISS/NASA, measurements derived from coastal tide gauge data and, since 1993, from satellite altimeter data indicate that between 1880 and 2013, global mean sea level (GMSL) rose by 22.6 cm, or an average of 1.6 mm per year over 134 years. Between 1993 and 2017 alone, GMSL rose by more than 7 centimeters. “This rate of sea-level rise is expected to accelerate as the melting of the ice sheets and ocean heat content increases as GHG concentrations rise” (Nerem et al. 2018). And indeed, according to Habib-Boubacar Dieng and colleagues (2017), GMSL rise since the mid-2000s shows significant increase compared to the 1993–2004 time span. Since at least 2007 (Livina and Lenton 2013), the thawing of the cryosphere reached a tipping point, entering into a phase of acceleration and irreversibility.', '8.3.1 An Average Rise of 5 mm per Year That Is Accelerating', 'The rise in sea level doubled or tripled in the years following 1993, when compared to the rise observed during most of the twentieth century. Whether it doubled or tripled depends on the somewhat uncertain estimates of the pace of sea level rise in the last century. For Sönke Dangendorf and colleagues (2017), GMSL rise before 1990 was 1.1 (+/−0.3) mm per year, while from 1993 to 2012, it was 3.1 (+/−1.4) mm per year. In this case, the speed of sea level rise almost tripled when compared to that of the twentieth century. According to NOAA, “the pace of global sea level rise doubled from 1.7 mm/year throughout most of the twentieth century to 3.4 mm/ year since 1993” (Lindsey 2017). Steven Nerem and colleagues (2018) estimate the climate change-driven acceleration of GMSL rise over the last 25 years to be 0.084 ± 0.025 mm/y2. Finally, Fig. 8.3 shows an increase by a factor of more than seven in the pace of mean sea level rise between 1900–1930 (0.6 mm/year) and 2010–2015 (4.4 mm/year).', 'And John Englander (2019) finally shows a mean rise of 5 mm per year between 2012 and 2017.', '8.3.2 Greenland', '“Since the early 1990s, mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet has contributed approximately 10% of the observed global mean sea level rise” (McMillan et al. 2016). The second-largest ice sheet in the world is melting at a breakneck speed. At its highest point, this ice sheet still stands more than 3000 meters above sea level. GMSL would rise to 7.4 meters, according to the IMBIE team (2019), should it all melt and run off into the ocean. This could occur within a millennium in the absence of drastic reductions in GHG emissions (Aschwanden et al. 2019). Greenland lost about 3.8 trillion tons of ice (1 trillion ton = 400,000,000 Olympic Pools) between [FIGURE 8.3 OMITTED] 1992 and 2018, causing GMSL to rise by 10–11 mm (it takes about 360 Gt of ice loss to raise GMSL 1 mm). This loss has raised GMSL by 13.7 mm since 1972, half during the last 8 years (Mouginot et al. 2019), and will likely raise GMSL between 2.5 cm and 10 cm by 2050 (Merzdorf 2019).The pace of ice loss is much higher than predicted by the models, and the observed acceleration is stunning. It has risen from 33 Gt a year in the 1990s to 254 Gt a year in the 2010s, according to the IMBIE team (2019). There are two other slightly larger estimates of ice loss (Bevis et al. 2019; Mouginot et al. 2019). In any case, Greenland lost almost 200 Gt of ice in July 2019 alone in the wake of one of the largest heat waves in recorded climate history. Isabella Velicogna and colleagues (2020) recorded “a mass loss of 600 Gt by the end of August 2019, which is comparable to the mass loss in the warm summer of 2012.” The island crossed one or more tipping points around 2002 or 2003. Rain is becoming more frequent, and it is melting Greenland’s ice even in the dead of winter (Fox 2019). Mostly important, Andy Aschwanden and colleagues (2019) have shown that warmer waters along the west coast of Greenland “led to a disintegration of buttressing floating ice tongues, which triggered a positive feedback between retreat, thinning, and outlet glacier acceleration,” a process they call outlet glacier-acceleration feedback.', '8.3.3 Antarctica', 'As is well-known, the Antarctic thaw has a potential, in the long run, to cause a rise in sea level of about 58 meters. The continent lost 2720 (+/− 1390) Gt of ice between 1992 and 2017, leading to a rise in sea level of 7.6 (+/− 3.9) millimeters, with a marked increase in ice loss in recent years. In fact, the pace of glacial loss in Antarctica almost tripled since 2012, jumping from 76 Gt in 2012 to 219 Gt in 2017. In that period alone (2012–2017), Antarctic thaw increased global sea levels by 3 millimeters (Shepherd and the IMBIE team 2018). According to the World Meteorological Organization, about 87% of the glaciers along Antarctica’s west coast have retreated over the past 50 years. Almost a quarter of its glaciers, among them the huge Thwaites and Pine Island Glaciers, can now be considered unstable. More recently, the glaciers spanning an eighth of the East Antarctica coastline are also being melted by warming seas. In February 2020, Antarctica logged its hottest temperatures on record, 18.3 °C and 20.75 °C (at Seymour Island), beating the previous record (2015) by more than 1 °C. If confirmed by the World Meteorological Organization, this temperature anomaly will be the first 20 °C-plus temperature measurement for the entire region south of 60° latitude (on July 2019, the Arctic region also hit its own record temperature of 21 °C). As pointed out by James Renwick, “it’s a sign of the warming that has been happening there that’s much faster than the global average (Readfern 2020). Thawing in parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has already put it in a stage of collapse and the retreat is unstoppable (Joughin et al. 2014; Paolo et al. 2015; DeConto and Pollard 2016). Pietro Milillo and colleagues (2019) measured the evolution of ice velocity, ice thinning, and grounding line retreat of the huge Thwaites Glacier (around 170 thousand km2) from 1992 to 2017. The Thwaites Glacier is melting very fast and is currently responsible for approximately 4% of global sea level rise. It contains enough ice to raise sea levels by about 60 cm. When it breaks off into the Amundsen Sea Embayment, it will probably trigger the collapse of five other nearby glaciers that are also melting (Pine Island, Haynes, Pope, Smith and Kohler). Together, they “have three meters of sea level locked up in them” (Englander 2019).', '8.3.4 Projections of 2 Meters or More by 2100', 'According to Qin Dahe, Co-Chair of the IPCC-AR5 (2013), “as the ocean warms, and glaciers and ice sheets reduce, global mean sea level will continue to rise, but at a faster rate than we have experienced over the past 40 years.” How much faster this rise will be is still uncertain. As stated above, the IPCC (2013) predictions about sea level rise until 2100 (26–98 cm) have long been considered too conservative (Rahmstorf et al. 2012). Anders Levermann, from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (2013), calculates an impact of 2.3 meters for every 1 °C rise in [FIGURE 8.4 OMITTED] average global temperatures.20 For its part, NOAA stated in 2012 that GMSL should increase by at least 20 centimeters and not more than 2 meters by 2100, considering the 1992 average level as a starting point.21 Figure 8.4 shows these two extreme possibilities and their two intermediary variables.', 'In 2013, a GMSL of more than 1 meter throughout the century was no longer considered unlikely, given the acceleration of the thawing of Greenland and West Antarctica. But in 2017, NOAA redid its estimates and raised the upper limit of estimated mean sea level rise to 2.5 meters and the lower limit to 30 centimeters by 2100. Table 8.1 discriminates the median values of GMSL in each decade up to 2100 and successively in 2120, 2150, and 2200, according to six scenarios.', 'Five Observations:', '(1) The Low and Intermediate-Low scenarios are no longer plausible because they assume no acceleration in GMSL rise (constant rise at rates of 3 and 5 millimeters per year by 2010, respectively, as per Table 8.2).', '(2) The High scenario is the most likely, maintaining the current pace of RCP8.5 W/ m2, as defined by the IPCC.', '(3) “New evidence regarding the Antarctic ice sheet, if sustained, may significantly increase the probability of the Intermediate-High, High, and Extreme scenarios, particularly for RCP8.5 projections” (Sweet et al. 2017, p. 21).', '(4) By 2030, there should be a GMSL rise between 16 cm and 24 cm above 2000 levels. This is an average of 20 cm, almost equivalent to the 22.6 cm rise observed between 1880 and 2013, as seen above. In the 2020s alone, GMSL is [TABLE 8.1 OMITTED] [TABLE 8.2 OMITTED] expected to rise between 6 and 13 cm, which is enough to cause recurrent and potentially catastrophic flooding in various cities around the world.', '(5) As shown in the table below, the speed of GMSL rise is multiplied by factors between 3 (intermediate) and 7.3 (extreme) by 2100.', 'In certain regions, these rises are much higher than the global average and are already equivalent to the IPCC projections for the 2081–2100 period. In New York, the US Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) predicts elevations of 25 centimeters by 2020, 76 centimeters in the 2050s, 147 centimeters in the 2080s, and 191 cm in the first decade of the twenty-second century.22 According to Andrew Shepherd, “around Brooklyn you get flooding once a year or so, but if you raise sea level by 15 cm then that’s going to happen 20 times a year” (Pierre-Louis 2018).', '8.3.5 A New Projection: “Several Meters Over a Timescale of 50–150 Years”', 'Scary as they may be, the above reported NOAA projections (Sweet et al. 2017) were largely surpassed by a new analysis (Hansen et al. 2016), based primarily on two arguments:', '(1) Information provided by paleoclimatology: “Earth is now as warm as it was during the prior interglacial period (Eemian), when sea level reached 6–9 m higher than today” (Hansen et al. 2016).', '(2) The amplifying feedbacks caused by the ongoing thawing in Antarctica and Greenland, which should increase subsurface ocean warming and mass loss of ice sheets. According to the authors, because of these feedbacks, the ice sheets that come into contact with the ocean are vulnerable to accelerating disintegration, causing much bigger GMSL increases on a much smaller timescale:', 'We hypothesize that ice mass loss from the most vulnerable ice, sufficient to raise sea level several meters, is better approximated as exponential than by a more linear response. Doubling times of 10, 20 or 40 years yield multi-meter sea level rise in about 50, 100 or 200 years. (…) These climate feedbacks aid interpretation of events late in the prior interglacial [Eemian], when sea level rose to +6–9 m with evidence of extreme storms while Earth was less than 1 °C warmer than today.', 'This projection, put forth by 18 scientists and coordinated by James Hansen, is very similar to and is reinforced by the Hothouse Earth hypothesis (Steffen et al. 2018) discussed above. Both studies consider an average global warming of “only” 2 °C above the pre-industrial period as a planetary threshold that, if crossed, can trigger climate feedback loops and nonlinear climate responses. In fact, James Hansen and colleagues warn that “the modeling, paleoclimate evidence, and ongoing observations together imply that 2°C global warming above the pre-industrial level could be dangerous.” They predict that this level of warming will cause:', '(1) Cooling of the Southern Ocean, especially in the Western Hemisphere', '(2) Slowing of the Southern Ocean overturning circulation, warming of ice shelves, and growing mass loss of ice sheets', '(3) Slowdown and eventual shutdown of the Atlantic overturning circulation with cooling of the North Atlantic region', '(4) Increasingly powerful storms', '(5) Nonlinearly growing sea level rise, reaching several meters over a timescale of 50–150 years', '8.3.6 Climate Refugees', 'In a video about this study, James Hansen discusses some implications of climate change and rising sea levels. He underlines the interactions between ocean warming and the melting of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, in addition to analyzing the positive feedback loops at play in global warming, sea level rise, and extreme weather events, such as “superstorms stronger than any in modern times” and “powerful enough for giant waves to toss 1000 ton megaboulders onto the shore in the Bahamas.” These feedbacks, he states:', 'raise questions about how soon we will pass points of no return in which we lock in consequences that cannot be reversed on any timescale that people care about. Consequences include sea level rise of several meters, which we estimate could occur this century, or at latest next century, if fossil fuel emissions continue at a high level. (…) The IPCC does not report these effects for two reasons. First, most models used by IPCC exclude ice melt. Second, we conclude that most models, ours included, are less sensitive than the real world to the added fresh water.', 'There is no need to stress the obvious impacts of these combined processes of sea level rise, larger and more extreme hurricanes, and superstorms capable of flooding thousands of square kilometers in the most densely populated coastal regions. The first of these impacts is the emergence of hundreds of millions of people who may fall into a new category of so-called “natural” disaster victims, the climate refugees, a term that does not exist yet in international law. According to a Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) report, between 2008 and 2013, “natural” disasters caused, on average, the forced displacement of 27.5 million people per year. In 2013 alone, about 22 million people in at least 119 countries were displaced from their homes because of these disasters; this is triple the number of displaced people due to armed conflict in the same period (Yonetani et al. 2014). In the past two decades, the global population of displaced people jumped from 33.9 million in 1997 to 65.6 million in 2016, the third consecutive year in which the number of refugees has broken the all-time high, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). We present further data from the UNHCR report, Global Trends: Forced Displacements in 2016. In 2016, 20 people were forced to leave their homes every minute. These forced displacements resulted in 22.5 million refugees (50% of them under the age of 18), the highest number in historical records, with 40.3 million moving involuntarily within the borders of their own countries. Just a decade ago, 1 in 160 people was a refugee. In 2016, 1 in 113 people was sentenced to this condition. In 2016, asylum seekers totaled 2.8 million people in 164 countries.23 The UNHCR’s report Climate Change and Disaster Displacement in 2017 states that “between 2008 and 2015, 203.4 million people were displaced by disasters, and the likelihood of being displaced by disasters has doubled since the 1970s.”', 'Not all these more than 203 million displaced people can be considered climate refugees, of course, but, as stated in the same document, “climate change is also a threat multiplier, and may exacerbate conflict over depleted resources.” Indeed, given that many wars and armed conflicts are fueled and/or intensified by climate problems, such as droughts, water depletion, food shortages, floods, and hurricanes, one must consider the “hidden” weight of environmental crises in intensifying conflicts that are predominantly political, ethnic, and religious in nature. In any case, the 2017 “Lancet Countdown” states that “annual weather-related disasters have increased by 46% from 2000 to 2013.” Referring to the next three decades, a press release titled “Sustainability, Stability, Security,” published in 2016 by the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) for an African inter-ministerial meeting at COP22, reminds us that more than 90% of Africa’s economy depends on a climate-sensitive natural resource, like rain-fed, subsistence agriculture, and issues a very clear warning: “unless we change the way we manage our land, in the next 30 years we may leave a billion or more vulnerable poor people with little choice but to fight or flee.”', '8.3.7 Consequences of a Rise in Sea Level of Up to 1 Meter', '(1) A GMSL rise of only about 50 cm by 2050 (Sweet et al. 2017: Intermediate-High = 44 cm; High = 54 cm) relative to 2000 will cause the forced migration of over 40 million people, according to simulations proposed by the NGO GlobalFloodMap.org. Several points on the coast of Africa (almost five million people), Europe (almost six million people), and Asia (14 million people) will be particularly affected. The case of Bangladesh, with a population of 153 million concentrated in just 144,000 km2, is one of the most serious, since two- thirds of its land is less than 5 meters above the current sea level. According to UN projections, by 2050 Bangladesh could lose 40% of its arable land. Hasan Mahmud, the country’s Minister for Environment, Forest and Climate Change, told Le Monde that “the sea level in the Gulf of Bengal has already risen and if scientists’ predictions are confirmed, 30 million people are expected to flee their lands by the end of the century.” (Bouissou 2013).', '(2) The next scenario entails a rise in sea level between 60 cm and 1.3 m between 2060 and 2080 (Sweet et al. 2017: 2060 Intermediate-High = 60 cm; High = 77 cm; 2080 Intermediate-High = 1 m; High = 1.3 m). This rise in sea level will be enough to cause flooding of deltas; changes in shorelines; complete submergence of islands, lowlands, and arable lands; as well as destruction of coastal ecosystems and displacement of populations that today live near the coast. This, in turn, will produce waves of new refugees with social traumas and colossal losses of urban infrastructure, as well as an overload of territories, some of which are already saturated due to human occupation. In this second scenario, a rise in sea level will directly reach almost 150 million people (Anthoff et al. 2006). Among the 20 most populous cities in the world, 13 are sea or river ports in coastal areas. A study coordinated by Susan Hanson (2011) identified 136 port cities over one million people most exposed to the impacts of rising sea levels and climate extremes by the 2070s. Of these 136 cities, 52 are in Asia, 17 in the USA, and 14 in South America.', '“The Ocean Conference” promoted by the United Nations (2017) estimates that people currently living in coastal communities represent 37% of the global population. Immense human contingents and entire populations of countless other species will be increasingly affected by more and more aggressive and frequent flooding, gradually being condemned to the condition of climate refugees. According to CoastalDEM, a new digital elevation model produced by Climate Central (2019), land currently home to 300 million people will fall below the elevation of an average annual coastal flood by 2050. Scott Kulp and Benjamin Strauss (2019) estimate that “one billion people now occupy land less than 10 meters above current high tide lines, including 230 million below 1 meter.” Under high emissions, the authors add, “CoastalDEM indicates up to 630 million people live on land below projected annual flood levels for 2100.”', 'But let us focus on the catastrophic current situation. The future is now in South Florida, for instance, where some 2.4 million people are at risk of flooding from even a moderate hurricane-driven storm surge. The odds of a catastrophic 100-year flood by 2030 are now 2.6 times higher than they would have been without global warming (Lemonick 2012). The same can be said of the 52 nations called SIDS (Small Island Developing States), where environmental collapse is already an ongoing reality, as the oceans are about to wipe out these small paradises which are home to a huge amount of diverse cultures, to biodiversity, and to almost 1% of humanity. For terrestrial species, including humans, living in the Pacific Islands made up of coral atolls, this collapse has a scheduled date, if the projections of Curt D. Storlazzi and colleagues (2018) are confirmed:', 'We show that, on the basis of current greenhouse gas emission rates, the nonlinear interactions between sea-level rise and wave dynamics over reefs will lead to the annual wave-driven overwash of most atoll islands by the mid-twenty-first century. This annual flooding will result in the islands becoming uninhabitable because of frequent damage to infrastructure and the inability of their freshwater aquifers to recover between overwash events.', '8.3.8 Cyclones, Hurricanes, Typhoons, Tornadoes… and Nuclear Power Plants', 'Extreme weather events are thermodynamic phenomena that are classified in five categories on the Saffir-Simpson scale, based on the increasing speed of their winds, starting with the weakest of them, which can reach a speed of over 117 km/h. One of the conditions that induce these events is when surface layers of the ocean, up to 50 meters deep, reach temperatures above 26 °C. There is evidence that the number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes on the Saffir-Simpson scale has been rising. According to Jeffrey St. Clair (2019), in the last 169 years, only 35 Atlantic hurricanes have attained Category 5 status, and 5 of them occurred in the last 4 years: Matthew (2016), Irma and Maria (2017), Michael (2018), and Dorian (2019). Humans are increasingly exposed to extreme flooding by tropical cyclones, and “there is also growing evidence for a future shift in the average global intensity of tropical cyclones towards stronger storms” (Woodruff et al. 2013). NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) assessment, titled Global Warming and Hurricanes: An Overview of Current Research Results (2019), summarizes its main conclusions for a 2 °C global warming scenario in three points:', '(1) Tropical cyclone rainfall rates will likely increase “on the order of 10–15% for rainfall rates averaged within about 100 km of the storm.”', '(2) Tropical cyclone intensities globally will likely increase on average by 1% to 10%. “This change would imply an even larger percentage increase in the destructive potential per storm, assuming no reduction in storm size.”', '(3) The global proportion of tropical cyclones that reach very intense levels (Categories 4 and 5) will likely increase over the twenty-first century.', 'The growing vulnerability of nuclear power plants is perhaps the most worrying consequence of these processes. Since they are cooled by water, their reactors are always next to rivers and estuaries, or by the sea. Although caused by a tsunami, the 2011 Daiichi disaster in Fukushima showed that electrical installations, indispensable for the functioning of the reactor cooling system, are vulnerable to flooding, whatever may be its cause: hurricanes, torrential rains, dam failure, or rise in sea level (Kopytko 2011). The vulnerability of nuclear plants tends to increase because their design, in most cases dating from the 1970s to 1990s, calculates safety margins for such phenomena on the basis of historical limits, which are now being exceeded due to climate change, in particular the intensification of hurricanes and rising sea levels.', 'Examples of increased risks abound. In 1999, the Blayais Nuclear Power Plant in the Gironde estuary in France was flooded by a tide and unprecedented winds, damaging two of its reactors. In June 2011, a flood in the Missouri River endangered the Fort Calhoun Nuclear Generating Station in Nebraska, and in October 2012 Hurricane Sandy seriously threatened the safety of the Salem and Oyster Creek Nuclear Plants in New Jersey.24 In England, “12 of Britain’s 19 civil nuclear sites are at risk of flooding and coastal erosion because of climate change,” 9 of which “have been assessed […] as being vulnerable now” (Edwards 2012). In Brazil, there are growing risks of this phenomenon for the reactors in the Angra dos Reis power plants (Pereira 2012).', '8.3.9 A Call to Arms', 'This is the title of the last chapter of Peter Wadhams book, A Farewell to Ice: A Report from the Arctic (2016). Its conclusion is one of brutal simplicity:', 'We have destroyed our planet’s life support system by mindless development and misuse of technology. A mindful development of technology, first for geoengineering, then for carbon removal, is now necessary to save us. It is the most serious and important activity in which the human race can now be involved, and it must begin immediately.', 'Wadhams does not ignore the costs, risks, and limitations of his proposal at the present stage of human technology, hence his appeal for an agenda to improve science, so as to make viable, technically and financially, a geoengineering with risks that are less imponderable. Yes, it is now necessary to contemplate all technological alternatives that can alleviate the present and future impacts of the climate emergency. None of them, however, will be able to prevent a global collapse, at the same time environmental and social. Technology, the economy, and universal carbon taxation (proposed since the Toronto Conference on Climate Change in 1988!) are all important and necessary. But only politics can significantly mitigate this ongoing global collapse. This perception that politics is at the center of our survival possibilities as organized societies does not yet seem clear enough among economists and scientists. The paradigm that has enabled the immense development of our societies is based on an energy system built on burning fossil fuels and on an intoxicating, animal protein-based, globalized food system that destroys forests and the foundations of life on the planet. This paradigm has exhausted itself. A paradigm exhausts itself when its harms far outweigh its benefits. This is precisely what is happening with increasing clarity, especially since the last quarter of the twentieth century. There are still those who think—especially among economists—that the benefits continue to outweigh the harms. But they ignore science, for science never ceases to warn us that the worst evils are yet to come and that they are already inevitable, even if the worst-case scenarios do not materialize.', 'The human species has, therefore, come to the most important crossroad in its history. If the decision on strategic investments in energy, food, and transportation systems is left in the hands of state–corporations, there will be no technology to save us. In this case, we will be condemned, within the horizon of current generations, to a warming of 2 °C, with increasing probabilities of warming equal or above 5 °C by 2100, due to the action of positive climate feedbacks. A warming of 3 °C or 4 °C is already considered beyond adaptation and implies unspeakable suffering to all, even the tiny minority who consider themselves invulnerable. An average global warming of 5 °C above the pre-industrial period implies extreme precariousness and, ultimately, the extinction of our species and of countless others.', 'This realization should not and cannot feed useless despair because another way is still possible. The way forward is one of full political mobilization to keep warming as low as is still possible. Maintaining global warming at the levels set by the IPCC and pursued by the Paris Agreement already is, in all likelihood, a socio-physical impossibility, as seen in the preceding chapter. But politics is not the art of the possible, as those who resign themselves to the status quo like to claim. To long for the impossible in order to broaden the horizon of the possible is the fundamental teaching of political reason. Is maintaining global warming “well below” 2 °C—to remember the aim of the Paris Agreement—impossible? “Of course, it is impossible, but we have to try,” exhorts Piers Forster (Lawton 2018). And Graham Lawton adds, wisely: “Even if we go over 1.5°C, every bit of extra warming we shave off makes the world more liveable.” The whole political program of our society can now be summed up by this attempt.', '[[REFERENCES OMITTED]]', '[[CHAPTER 9 BEGINS]]', '“The long-lasting debate involving population, development and environment appears to have become an insoluble equation.” Such is the conclusion of George Martine and José Eustáquio Diniz Alves (2019) about the apparently insurmountable difficulties in harmonizing the three terms of the demographic equation. That said, one can at least safely assert that the number of people currently inhabiting the planet is not, in and of itself, a fundamental stressor of ecosystems as an isolated factor. It is not possible to subscribe to the opinion of Sir David King, former science adviser to the UK government, for whom “the massive growth in the human population through the twentieth century has had more impact on biodiversity than any other single factor” (Campbell et al. 2007). In reality, the cumulative model of contemporary societies—not population growth itself—“has had more impact on biodiversity than any other single factor.” The expansive, environmentally destructive, and socially exploitative dynamics of global capitalism, its energy system based on the burning of fossil fuels, and the new globalized food system centered on consumption of animal protein would continue to drive humanity and biodiversity to collapse, even if the human population were reduced to less than half, that is, to its 1970 levels. Population increase is, undoubtedly, an aggravating factor, but it is not the engine of this dynamic of collapse. As George Martine states (2016):', 'Obviously the more people who are consuming, the faster the rate of degradation under the present system. Reducing population size is part of any long-term solution. Yet, it is disingenuous to cite population size and growth as the main culprit of environmental degradation or to suggest that family planning programs could provide a quick fix. (…) What really matters is who has access to “development”, such as we know it. Of the 7.3 billion people currently on Earth, only a third can be minimally construed as “middle class” consumers and the remainder contribute marginally to insoluble global environmental threats.', 'There is a clear correspondence, for example, between environmental degradation and anthropogenic CO2 emissions. These emissions do not increase simply as a result of population growth, but as a result of a per capita increase in emissions. Per capita anthropogenic CO2 emissions did not cease to increase year after year in the period from 1950 to 2010. On average, each individual on the planet emitted more [[FIGURE 9.1 OMITTED]] than twice as much CO2 as an individual in 1950, according to the following progression in million tons per capita: 1950, 0.64; 2001, 1.12; and 2010, 1.33 (Boden & Andres 2013). Moreover, the increase in per capita consumption should not obscure who is largely responsible for GHG emissions, the richest 10% of humanity, since these GHGs are emitted as a function of their consumption levels. Figure 9.1 shows how these emissions are distributed in the global income pyramid.', 'The richest 10% of humanity produce nearly half of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, and the richest 30%, which George Martine classifies as “middle class” in the aforementioned quote, produce almost 80% of them, while the poorest half of the planet’s population produce only 10%. Yangyang Xu and Veerabhadran Ramanathan (2017) bring more data to Oxfam’s analysis. Focusing on the poorest three billion people, they find that:', 'Their contribution to CO2 pollution is roughly 5% compared with the 50% contribution by the wealthiest 1 billion. This bottom 3 billion population comprises mostly subsistent farmers, whose livelihood will be severely impacted, if not destroyed, with a one- to five-year megadrought, heat waves, or heavy floods.', 'Hannah Ritchie and Max Rosen (2017, revised in 2019) also highlight this extreme inequality1:', 'The world’s poorest have contribute less than 1% of emissions. (…) When aggregated in terms of income, (…) the richest half (high and upper-middle income countries) emit 86% of global CO2 emissions. The bottom half (low and lower-middle income) only 14%. The very poorest countries (home to 9% of the global population) are responsible for just 0.5%. This provides a strong indication of the relative sensitivity of global emissions to income versus population. Even several billion additional people in low-income countries — where fertility rates and population growth is already highest — would leave global emissions almost unchanged. 3 or 4 billion low income individuals would only account for a few percent of global CO2. At the other end of the distribution however, adding only one billion high income individuals would increase global emissions by almost one-third.', 'Furthermore, it is not overpopulation that is causing migratory waves from Central America toward the United States. Climate change, drought, an unsustainable agricultural model, and other environmental degradation factors are the real culprits for the growing agricultural crisis in these countries. All in all, the demographic factor plays only a secondary role in the causal link between globalized capitalism and the ongoing socio-environmental collapse. That said, population size is not an irrelevant factor, far from it. According to the 2019 UN World Population Prospects (WPP 2019):', 'The global population is expected to reach 8.5 billion in 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050 and 10.9 billion in 2100, according to the medium-variant projection, which assumes a decline of fertility for countries where large families are still prevalent, a slight increase of fertility in several countries where women have fewer than two live births on average over a lifetime, and continued reductions in mortality at all ages.', 'We know, however, that there is inherent uncertainty in demographic projections. Thereby, it would suffice for the decline in current high-fertility countries to be a little slower than expected for demography to return to the forefront of the socio-environmental crises. Moreover, even if population growth remains within the bounds of the medium-variant projection, the WPP 2019 concludes that “with a certainty of 95%, the size of the global population will stand between 8.5 and 8.6 billion in 2030, between 9.4 and 10.1 billion in 2050, and between 9.4 and 12.7 billion in 2100.” The difference between the two ends of the projection for 2030 (100 million people) is not very relevant, since it only represents a difference of about 1.2% (between the highest and lowest predictions). However, by 2050, this uncertainty range jumps to 700 million people, a difference of about 7.5% relative to the lower value of 9.4 billion, and by 2100 there is a potential difference of 3.3 billion, that is, of about 35% between the lowest and highest projection. This is a wide gap. Just to measure its extent, imagine that by mid-2020 the planet was home to 11 billion humans and not the current 7.8 billion. In spite of these uncertainties, what is proposed here can be summarized in two points:', '(1) 2019 data from the WPP confirms trends that have been well-detected for over a decade:', 'The rate of population growth remains especially high in the group of 47 countries designated by the United Nations as least developed, including 32 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. With an average growth of 2.3% annually from 2015 to 2020, the total population of the least developed countries (LDCs) as a group is growing 2.5 times faster than the total population of the rest of the world.', 'According to 2019 data from the WPP, there is a population of 1.066 billion in sub-Saharan African countries, 1.37 billion in India, 271 million in Indonesia, and 204 million in Pakistan. Together, these countries are home to 2.911 billion people, or 39% of the planet’s current human population, and their demographic growth rate is still very high. By 2050, the population of these countries is expected to reach 2.118 billion, 1.643 billion, 327 million, and 403 million, respectively. By 2050, therefore, these countries will have nearly 4.5 billion people or about 47% of the total estimated mid-century global population of 9.7 billion. Moreover, in keeping with their current trajectory, India, Indonesia, and a number of African countries will tend to lead the global capitalist accumulation (if there is no global environmental collapse by 2030, which is increasingly likely) and provide commodities for that accumulation, with increasing impacts on global ecosystems and on biodiversity. Economic globalization, coupled with a four-decade decline food self-sufficiency at the country level in a growing number of countries (Schramski et al. 20192), as well as a diet increasingly based on meat, will lead many commodity-supplying countries, including Brazil and other Latin American and African countries, to destroy their forests— large carbon stockpiles and also rich in biodiversity—and to replace them with agriculture. It is not the population and local economy of tropical countries that drive the destruction of wildlife habitats, but the globalization of the food and energy system. Only a radical change in the animal-based protein diet and a dismantling of economic globalization have the power today to reduce or even reverse environmental degradation.', '(2) Furthermore, waste and overconsumption of humanity’s richest 30% must radically decrease so that the rising socioeconomic inequality can be reversed, safeguarding the ability of planetary ecosystems to support human population at current levels. Even if the most optimistic projections of rapid deceleration in population growth are confirmed, the planet’s richest 30% will always have the greatest environmental impact—in absolute terms and per capita (measured by indicators such as the ecological footprint)—should we persist with the capitalist model of higher energy production and expansion of surplus and consumption. The capitalist supermarket cannot be universalized, even in an imaginary scenario of zero or negative demographic growth. As George Martine (2016) states, “under the current paradigm, it is simply absurd to imagine that the current living standards of the richer minority can be adopted by the entire world population — whether of 8 or 15 billion — without drastically overstepping planetary boundaries.”', 'The crux of the demographic problem is not just knowing how much the human population will increase by 2050 and 2100, but, above all, what the economic system’s impact on the biosphere and the climate system will be. And, not unlike the other socio-environmental crises, the magnitude of this impact will depend on societies’ capacity for democratic governance, whence the title of this chapter.', 'The Ehrlich Formula I = PAT', 'Paul and Anne Ehrlich (1974/1990, p. 58) conceptualized—correctly, according to our understanding—the demographic impact on the biosphere:', 'The impact of any human group on the environment can be usefully viewed as the product of three different factors. The first is the number of people. The second is some measure of the average person’s consumption of resources (which is also an index of affluence). Finally, the product of those two factors–the population and its per-capita consumption–is multiplied by an index of the environmental disruptiveness of the technologies that provide the goods consumed. (…) In short, Impact = Population x Affluence x Technology, or I = PAT.', 'Paul Ehrlich and John Holdren (1971) wrote, always correctly in my view, that “the total negative impact” (I) of a given society on the environment “can be expressed, in the simplest terms, by the relation I = P × F, where P is the population, and F is a function which measures the per capita impact.” However, the authors overestimate the population factor. So, in the same article, they add: “The per capita consumption of energy and resources, and the associated per capita impact on the environment, are themselves functions of the population size. Our previous equation is more accurately written I = P × F(P), displaying the fact that impact can increase faster than linearly with population.” This perception was understandable during the years of the publication of The Population Bomb (1968) and The Population Explosion (1974). In fact, during 1965–1970, the growth rate of the world’s population was increasing by 2.1%. In 2015–2020, it is growing by less than 1.1% per year. It is, of course, still too much, but it is estimated that this growth rate will slow down by the end of the century.', 'The concerns brought forth by these classics by Paul and Anne Ehrlich began to prove themselves outdated in the last two decades of the twentieth century. Today, more than ever, it is the energy and food systems inseparable from economic globalization that are the true drivers of deforestation, loss of wildlife habitats, ongoing collapse of biodiversity, and pollution of soil, air, and water by emissions of particulate matter, pesticides, fertilizers, plastic waste, and other pollutants, as discussed in Chap. 4.', 'If we return to the equation I = PAT (Impact = Population × Affluence × Technology), it is true that the stricto sensu demographic pressure on ecosystems is getting worse because in many populous countries, the increase in population (P Index) is decelerating too slowly. But, of extreme importance is the fact that the two other factors are definitely not diminishing but growing rapidly.', 'The second environmental impact factor (Affluence)—measured by GHG emissions, consumption of energy and natural resources, production of commodities, and generation of waste—is increasing at a rapid pace. In many cases, technology, the third factor, is becoming even more destructive, such as in the production of unconventional oil and the even more destructive regression to coal (Chaps. 5 and 6). Although there is scientific and technological knowledge to significantly lower the T index, the choices made by the corporate–state network, which retains control of global investment flows, have not helped diminish this destructiveness. On the contrary, the observed trend, illustrated a thousand times in this book, is always the same: the less abundant natural resources become (fish schools, forests, soils, freshwater resources, liquid oil, and the potential for hydropower generation), the more invasive and destructive become the technologies used to obtain them.', '9.1 Demographic Choices and Democracy: Reciprocal Conditioning', 'It is absolutely necessary to accelerate the demographic transition. But demographic transition is, above all, a function of democracy, without which societies will not be endowed with the five pillars of demographic rationality:', '(1) A socioeconomic system that is environmentally friendly, understanding the economy as a subsystem of the biosphere', '(2) Lower consumption, less waste, and less waste generation by the richest 30%, in order to reduce inequality in wealth and income', '(3) Education for all, but especially for girls/women', '(4) Female sexual freedom', '(5) Secularism', 'Democracy is obviously the conditio sine qua non for the existence of these five pillars of demographic rationality. As is well known, items three to five are “spontaneous” promoters of a successful demographic transition. With regard to secularism, in particular, it must be stressed that, without democracy, societies will continue to suffer a blockade from the three great monotheistic religions on family planning, various contraceptive practices, and clinically assisted and state-guaranteed abortion. The belief in the existence of an immaterial entity, ontologically independent of the body, which would a priori constitute the individual—nefesh or neshamah in Judaism, anima in Christianity, and nafs in Islam—leads monotheistic religions to postulate that the fetus is already endowed with a supposed “essence” in the intrauterine phase before the formation of its central nervous system, anatomical structures, and physiology. Abortion, therefore, would be prohibited according to these faiths. Religious beliefs became constant in human imagination, possibly from the moment when awareness of one’s own mortality became a central fact of our ancestors’ awareness. The problem is not, of course, religiosity. The problem is the ability of religions to become a power system capable of obstructing protective legislation for women.', 'According to the Guttmacher Institute, pregnancy is often unwanted by women (Engelman 2013). Therefore, as long as women do not conquer, as they have done in some countries, the first and most elementary of democratic rights—the right over themselves, their bodies, their sexuality, and their procreation—and, in addition to this, as long as they do not have access to legal, medical, and financial means for family planning and abortion in the event of an unwanted pregnancy, all the UN’s calculations on probabilities will be simple statistical exercises on the evolution of fertility rates, disregarding, at their own risk, a factor whose absence may distort all others: reproductive democracy. It should be feared, therefore, that Asia and Africa, continents that house 76% of the world’s population, and in which religious extremism, theocracies, and state religions are spreading, may not be able to evolve into secularism. As a result, they will suffer from calamitous demographic increases for themselves and for the whole world.', 'That said, not only Asia and Africa but also the Americas, and notably Brazil and the United States, are victims of a strong offensive against secularism. In the pulpits and in the Brazilian National Congress, the Catholic, Protestant, and neo-Pentecostal churches are united when it comes to barring the right to state-assisted abortion. The same is true in the United States where the freedom to have an abortion in the first 3 months of pregnancy, stemming from a landmark 1973 Supreme Court ruling (Roe v. Wade), is eroding, with brutal setbacks leading to the criminalization of abortion in several states.', 'This is not to say that demography is a simple function of democracy, because the opposite is also true. The capacity for democratic governance also depends, to a large extent, on the pace and scale of population growth, since fertility rates above the replacement level hinder a minimum of political stability in the medium and long term, nullify government efforts for better education and sanitation, and leave the population at the mercy of religious obscurantism.', '9.2 Beyond the Arithmetic Addition: Urbanization, Tourism, and Automobiles', 'Returning to the Ehrlich formula (I = PAT), the environmental impact of population growth is strongly conditioned by Affluence (A), that is, the average per capita consumption multiplied by the environmental destruction index of technologies (T) that provide energy, production assets, and consumer goods. Thus, for various reasons (GHGs, waste production, use or consumption of energy, water, soils, meat, minerals, wood, etc.), the environmental impact of an American or an European is, on average, obviously much greater than that of an African, Asian, or Latin American who does not belong to the economic elite.', 'The association of the affluence index with the phenomenon of intense urbanization is a supplementary factor of anthropic pressure, since the urban footprint is larger than that of the population as a whole. According to the UN’s World Urbanization Prospects (The 2003 Revision), the urban population reached one billion in 1960, two billion in 1985, and three billion in 2002, and it should reach five billion in 2030. According to a 2014 review of the World Urbanization Prospects from the United Nations Population Division, the world’s urban population is expected to exceed six billion by 2045. In many cases, the urbanization process is extreme, with the formation of gigantic urban and suburban patches that further enhance the environmental impact, especially in the new megacities in poor and infrastructure-deficient countries. In 1950, New York and Tokyo were the only cities with more than ten million inhabitants. In 1990, there were ten megacities with more than ten million inhabitants. In 2012, there were 23 megacities of this caliber, four of which were in China. In 2014, there were 28 megacities in the world, 16 of which were in Asia, 4 in Latin America, 3 in Africa, 3 in Europe, and 2 in North America. By 2025, there will be 37 megacities with more than ten million inhabitants in the world, seven of them in China. By 2030, there will probably be 41 megacities with ten million inhabitants or more, with the 9 largest located in Asia and Africa (in descending order, Tokyo, Delhi, Shanghai, Mumbai, Beijing, Dhaka, Karachi, Cairo, and Lagos). ', 'This process of mega-urbanization is spontaneous and seemingly inexorable within today’s state–corporations, committed to the dynamics of the global market and unable to carry out an agenda of urban planning and decentralization. This urbanization is sometimes even encouraged by governments. In China, for example, between 1982 and 2012, the urban population went from 200 million to over 700 million. In the next 15 years, another 300 million Chinese, equivalent to the US population, will migrate to the cities.', 'Far from pondering the negative effects of this process, the Chinese government plans to accelerate it by merging nine major cities in the Pearl River Delta in the South of the country into a single urban sprawl of 50 million. This urbanization was considered by the Chinese leaders and their 5-year plan (2011–2015) as the “essential engine” of economic growth. Thus, in 2010, there were 94 cities in China with over one million inhabitants. And according to Beijing’s plans, by 2025, there will be 143 cities of this scale. According to Peiyue Li, Hui Qian, and Jianhua Wu (2014), in Lanzhou:', '700 mountains are being levelled to create more than 250 km2 of flat land. (…) Land-creation projects are already causing air and water pollution, soil erosion and geological hazards such as subsidence. They destroy forests and farmlands and endanger wild animals and plants.', 'Now, simply because they will be concentrated predominantly in these consumer hotspots—cities of more than one million inhabitants or megacities of more than ten million—the additional two billion people who will be added around 2043, or even earlier, will tend to produce more heat radiation, more air pollution, more municipal solid waste, more industrial waste, more CO2, more methane, and more tropospheric ozone and will consume more energy and natural resources per capita than the two billion people that were added to humanity between 1987 and 2012.', '9.2.1 Tourism', 'The tourism industry, among the largest in the world, promotes increasing pressure on the environment, as highlighted by UNEP: deforestation and degradation of forests and soils, loss of natural habitats, increased pressure on native species and increase in invasive species, increased forest vulnerability to fire, water scarcity, more land and sea pollution, and increased greenhouse gas emissions from more travel. The aviation sector accounts for more than 1 GtCO2, or about 2% of global emissions per year, and tourism now accounts for 60% of air transport (UNEP). Emissions from this sector are expected to triple by 2050 or more than double if planes become more fuel-efficient. According to the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), in 1995, 540 million tourists traveled outside their countries. In 2010, that number reached 940 million. In 2018, international tourist arrivals worldwide reach 1.4 billion, a mark which was reached 2 years ahead of UNWTO’s long-term forecast issued in 2010.3 In 2000, the number of Chinese tourists traveling the world was ten million, and in 2013, it rose to 98.19 million. In the first 11 months of 2014 alone, this number reached 100 million. The China National Tourism Administration informed that “Chinese tourists traveled overseas on 131 million occasions in 2017, an increase of 7% from the previous year,”4 and the China Daily (5/VIII/2019) reported that Chinese tourists made 149 million overseas trips in 2018.', '9.2.2 Automotive Vehicles', 'A third classic example of how the factors “Affluence” and “Technological Destructiveness” enhance demographic impact is the amount and the per capita increase of oil-powered vehicles in the world. Table 9.1 gives a picture of this evolution:', 'In 40 years (1970–2010), the number of vehicles in operation (cars and light and heavy commercial vehicles) more than quadrupled, while the population did not double. In the next 10 years (2021–2030), it is estimated that this fleet will reach two billion vehicles, for a population that is about 20% greater than in 2010. The auto industry resumed its expansion globally since 2009 and, in Europe, since 2014. Global sales of the automotive industry have maintained a rate of between 77 and 79 million vehicles per year since 2016, as shown in Fig. 9.2:', '[TABLE 9.1 OMITTED]', '[FIGURE 9.2 OMITTED]', '[TABLE 9.2 OMITTED]', 'Table 9.2 shows the number of motor vehicles by country between 2015 and 2019.', 'Furthermore, the increase in consumption of oil for transport should continue to increase in the foreseeable future. According to the EIA’s International Energy Outlook 2017:', 'Because of the increase in electric vehicle penetration, the share of petroleum-based fuel for light-duty vehicle use decreases from 98% in 2015, to 90% by 2040. But, liquid fuels consumption is still expected to increase by almost 20% between 2015 and 2040 as more petroleum-based cars are still being added to the stock and other uses of liquid fuels continue to grow.', 'The projected increase in this fleet obviously depends on the supply elasticity of oil, gas, ethanol, and batteries for electric vehicles. According to Daniel Sperling (2010), maintaining current fuel consumption conditions per kilometer driven, a fleet of two billion vehicles—which should be reached by 2030—would consume 120 million barrels of oil per day, almost 20% more than today’s total daily oil consumption.', '9.3 The Destructiveness of Technology (the T Index)', 'The transport sector, in general, includes products that are derived from very destructive technology, whether it be the materials used, the energy consumed, or its direct contribution to global CO2 emissions. According to the Transport and Climate Change Global Status Report (2018), produced by the Partnership on Sustainable, Low Carbon Transport (SLoCaT), “transport sector CO2 direct emissions increased 29% (from 5.8 Gt to 7.5 Gt) between 2000 and 2016, at which point transport produced about 23% of global energy-related CO2 emissions, and (as of 2014) 14% of global GHG emissions.” These numbers will increase not only because of the expected increase in fossil fuel-powered vehicles over the next decade but also because of the higher proportion of fuel (particularly in the United States) coming from unconventional oil, whose extraction emits more CO2. According to data from SLoCaT 2018, GHG emissions from rail transport accounted for only 3% of the total emissions in 2015, while emissions from individual automobiles and long-distance transport for tourism and trade accounted for 88% of global CO2 emissions in the transport sector, as shown in Table 9.3.', 'The decarbonization of technologies in the transportation, cement, and steel industries is extremely difficult if we maintain the paradigms of economic growth and of today’s globalized economy. As Steven Davis et al. (2018) affirm, “these difficult-to-decarbonize energy services include aviation, long-distance transport, and shipping; production of carbon-intensive structural materials such as steel and [TABLE 9.3 OMITTED] cement; and provision of a reliable electricity supply that meets varying demand.” According to estimates from the OECD International Transport Forum, by 2050, CO2 emissions from oil-powered vehicles can multiply 2.5–3 times relative to 2000 (with likely improvements in efficiency during that period already included in this estimate).', 'This set of findings and projections brings us back to the same juncture that at once motivates and runs through this book: either societies advance rapidly to overcome capitalism—and by overcoming capitalism we mean, and repeat exhaustively, to radically redefine man’s position in the biosphere and deepen democracy (starting with reproductive democracy)—or the factors that make up the demographic impact on natural resources and ecosystems (I = PAT) will, together, overcome capitalism in their own way, that is, through social and environmental collapse.', '9.3.1 A Fragile Premise', 'The realization of any of the demographic impact scenarios discussed above depends, of course, on an implicit assumption that “the other variables” remain relatively unchanged. The cumulative apparatus of global capitalism is already leading to a collapse of water resources, soils, biodiversity, and ecosystems in general, as well as ever more severe changes in climate coordinates. Occurring in synergy, such phenomena will imply more or less brutal demographic contractions, squarely contradicting UN Population Division projections which are based mainly on variations in fertility rates. This methodological condition of a ceteris paribus—that is, the condition that ecosystems remain functional and societies relatively organized—is increasingly questionable.', '[REFERENCES OMITTED]', '[CHAPTER 10 BEGINS]', 'Numerous scholars from various fields of science today are concerned with the ongoing collapse of biodiversity. The first Global Assessment of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES),1 published in 2019, estimates that:', 'The rate of global change in nature during the past 50 years is unprecedented in human history (…) Human actions threaten more species with global extinction now than ever before. (…) An average of around 25% of species in assessed animal and plant groups are threatened, suggesting that around 1 million species already face extinction, many within decades, unless action is taken to reduce the intensity of drivers of biodiversity loss.', 'Societies’ very survival depends on their ability to avert the impending threat of biological annihilation via the ongoing sixth mass extinction of species, triggered or intensified by the globalization of capitalism over the last 50 years. Sir Robert Watson, Chair of IPBES (2016), doesn’t mince his words to say what is at stake: “We are eroding the very foundations of our economies, livelihoods, food security, health and quality of life worldwide.” There is no hyperbole in the claim that the collapse of biodiversity and the acceleration of global warming, two processes that interact in synergy, entail an increasing risk of extinction for the Homo sapiens. As pointed out by Cristiana Paşca Palmer, Executive Secretary of the Convention on Biodiversity (2018), “I hope we aren’t the first species to document our own extinction.” Julia Marton-Lefèvre, former Director General of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), reiterates this warning for the umpteenth time in a statement to delegations meeting at Rio+20 in 2012:', 'Sustainability is a matter of life and death for people on the planet. A sustainable future cannot be achieved without conserving biological diversity—animal and plant species, their habitats and their genes—not only for nature itself, but also for all 7 billion people who depend on it.', '10.1 Defaunation and Biological Annihilation', 'Rodolfo Dirzo, Mauro Galetti, Ben Collen, and other co-authors of a review titled “Defaunation in the Anthropocene” (2014) conceptualize one of the central aspects of the current sixth mass extinction of species: the term defaunation is used to denote the loss of both species and populations of wildlife, as well as local declines in abundance of individuals. The defaunation process is in full swing:', 'In the past 500 years, humans have triggered a wave of extinction, threat, and local population declines that may be comparable in both rate and magnitude with the five previous mass extinctions of Earth’s history. Similar to other mass extinction events, the effects of this “sixth extinction wave” extend across taxonomic groups, but they are also selective, with some taxonomic groups and regions being particularly affected. (…) So profound is this problem that we have applied the term “defaunation” to describe it.', 'In a 2017 article, Gerardo Ceballos, Paul Ehrlich, and, again, Rodolfo Dirzo warn about the false impression that the threat of biological annihilation is not imminent:', 'The strong focus on species extinctions, a critical aspect of the contemporary pulse of biological extinction, leads to a common misimpression that Earth’s biota is not immediately threatened, just slowly entering an episode of major biodiversity loss. This view overlooks the current trends of population declines and extinctions. Using a sample of 27,600 terrestrial vertebrate species, and a more detailed analysis of 177 mammal species, we show the extremely high degree of population decay in vertebrates, even in common “species of low concern.” Dwindling population sizes and range shrinkages amount to a massive anthropogenic erosion of biodiversity and of the ecosystem services essential to civilization. This “biological annihilation” underlines the seriousness for humanity of Earth’s ongoing sixth mass extinction event.', '10.2 The 1992 Convention on Biological Biodiversity', 'This process of mass extinction of plant and animal species has accelerated despite diplomatic and other efforts. In 1992, 1 day after the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was signed, 194 states2 signed the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). In this robust 30-page document, the signatories solemnly affirm “that the conservation of biological diversity is a common concern of humankind,” declare to be “concerned that biological diversity is being significantly reduced by certain human activities,” and claim they are “determined to conserve and sustainably use biological diversity for the benefit of present and future generations.” In contrast to these moving intentions, this is the reality: while opening the third edition of the UN Global Biodiversity Outlook (GBO-3) in 2010, Ban Ki-moon, then UN Secretary-General, highlighted the accelerating decline in biodiversity in the first decade of the twenty-first century—“the principal pressures leading to biodiversity loss are not just constant but are, in some cases, intensifying.” This third report was presented at the Nagoya meeting (COP10) of the Convention on Biological Diversity. In this meeting, nearly 200 parties subscribed to the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity (the so-called Aichi Biodiversity Targets), establishing 20 Targets (subdivided into 56 goals, grouped under 5 strategic goals) for the conservation of biodiversity between 2011 and 2020, with successive stages until 2050. After the first 4 years of this first decade, the fourth edition of the UN Global Biodiversity Outlook (GBO-4), presented in October 2014 at CBD COP 12 in South Korea, admits that “pressures on biodiversity will continue to increase at least until 2020, and that the status of biodiversity will continue to decline.”3 With regard to Target 12 (Reducing risk of extinction), the report concludes that:', 'Multiple lines of evidence give high confidence that based on our current trajectory, this target would not be met by 2020, as the trend towards greater extinction risk for several taxonomic groups has not decelerated since 2010. Despite individual success stories, the average risk of extinction for birds, mammals, amphibians and corals shows no sign of decreasing.', 'Using 55 indicator datasets, Derek Tittensor and 50 colleagues (2014) reiterate this same assessment of progress on the Aichi Targets: “On current trajectories, results suggest that despite accelerating policy and management responses to the biodiversity crisis, the impacts of these efforts are unlikely to be reflected in improved trends in the state of biodiversity by 2020.” For Richard Gregory, one of the authors of this report, “world leaders are currently grappling with many crises affecting our future. But this study shows there is a collective failure to address the loss of biodiversity, which is arguably one of the greatest crises facing humanity” (Vaughan 2014). In December 2016, the 13th meeting of the CBD in Cancun, Mexico, revealed the miserable failure of the plans established by signatory countries to achieve the Aichi Targets by 2020. No less than 90% of these targets, including halting habitat loss, saving endangered species, reducing pollution, and making fishing and agriculture more sustainable, was then expected to be unmet by 2020 (Coghlan 2018).', 'Having failed to honor their Aichi commitments, countries will meet in October 2020, in Kunming, China, for the 15th Conference of the Parties (CBD COP15). A new landmark global pact, titled 2050 CBD Vision “Living in harmony with nature”, is the expected outcome of this meeting. Unfortunately, according to Friends of the Earth, the draft that will be discussed in China is not ambitious enough. It fails to recognize the negative impacts of monoculture agribusiness and pesticides, nor does it call for divestment from other destructive projects:4', 'Corporations have a vested interest in avoiding strict regulation and any attempts to scale down their profit-driven activities. As long as they have a seat at the negotiation table, no measures will be taken to live within planetary boundaries. Yet instead of seeking to reduce corporate conflicts of interest—a controversial issue in the CBD—the Draft repeatedly promotes closer collaboration with the private sector, and states that increased production will be necessary.', '10.3 The Biodiversity of the Holocene', 'There is no unanimity on the number of species that make up today’s biodiversity. In 1988, Robert M. May suggested—on the assumption that the number of species increased inversely to the proportion of their size—that there were an estimated 10 million to 50 million terrestrial species. He stressed, however, the uncertainties about this, especially from a theoretical point of view. In 1996, Richard Leakey and Roger Lewin considered that the planet hosted perhaps 50 million species. For James P. Collins and Martha L. Crump (2009), the number of species of organisms living on Earth today would range from 10 million to 100 million, and Richard Monastersky (2014) accepts estimates—that include animal, plant, and fungal species— oscillating between 2 million and over 50 million.', 'When it comes to the domain of microorganisms, which control major nutrient cycles and directly influence plant, animal, and human health, we enter further into terra incognita. As Diana R. Nemergut and co-authors (2010) stated in a paper on bacterial biogeography, “we know relatively little about the forces shaping their large-scale ecological ranges.” Thus, if global biodiversity quantification estimates include the domains of bacteria and archaea, our planet could contain nearly one trillion species (Kenneth and Lennona 2016). That said, at least for eukaryotic species (organisms whose cells have a nucleus enclosed within membranes), most estimates have shrunk to less than 10 million species. According to Nigel E. Stork et al. (2015), there are about 1.5 million beetle species (estimates ranging from 0.9 to 2.1 million), 5.5 million insect species (2.6–7.8 million), and 6.8 million species of terrestrial arthropods (range 5.9–7.8 million), “which suggest that estimates for the world’s insects and their relatives are narrowing considerably.” Camilo Mora and his team (2011) have proposed a new way of estimating the number of species. According to them:', 'the higher taxonomic classification of species (i.e., the assignment of species to phylum, class, order, family, and genus) follows a consistent and predictable pattern from which the total number of species in a taxonomic group can be estimated. This approach was validated against well-known taxa, and when applied to all domains of life, it predicts ∼8.7 million (±1.3 million Standard Error) eukaryotic species globally, of which ∼2.2 million (±0.18 million SE) are marine.', 'This study elicited diverse reactions, including criticism of the methodology used, which would be unable to account for a global biodiversity. But Sina Adl, one of the co-authors of this work, is the first to admit that “the estimate in the manuscript is a gross under-estimate” (as cited in Mathiesen 2013). In any case, a consensus seems to be outlined regarding the magnitude of global biodiversity, at least in regard to eukaryotic species. Thus, Rodolfo Dirzo, Mauro Galetti, and Ben Collen (2014) implicitly consolidate this proposal by stating: “of a conservatively estimated 5 million to 9 million animal species on the planet, we are likely losing ~11,000 to 58,000 species annually.” IPBES also works with this scale. As stated by Andy Purvis (2019), “in the [Global] Assessment, we have used a recent mid-low estimate of 8.1 million animal and plant species, of which an estimated 5.5 million are insects (i.e., 75%) and 2.6 million are not.”', '10.4 The Sixth Extinction', 'Species extinction is an inherent fact of evolution; “some thirty billion species are estimated to have lived since multicellular creatures first evolved, in the Cambrian explosion” (Leakey and Lewin 1996), which gives us an idea of their transience, since the number of multicellular species existing today does not go beyond the millions, as we have seen. Therefore, at least 99% of all species that have ever existed are extinct. This is mainly due to the large mass extinctions of species that abruptly disrupted the increasing trend of biodiversity. One can speak of mass extinctions when the Earth loses more than three-quarters of its species in a geologically short interval (Barnosky et al. 2011). Five major extinctions fall into this category: (1) in the end of the Ordovician period (440 million years ago), (2) in the Late Devonian Period (365 million years ago), (3) in the Permian–Triassic Period (251 million years ago), (4) in the end of the Triassic Period (210 million years ago), and (5) in the end of the Cretaceous Period (65 million years ago). Jun-xuan Fan and colleagues (2010) showed no evidence of a discrete mass extinction near the end of the Devonian period, the so-called the Late Devonian Frasnian–Famennian extinction. There was instead “a protracted diversity decline that began in the Eifelian (392.72 Ma) and continued to ~368.24 Ma with no subsequent major recovery.” The fifth extinction (or the fourth one, according to this study) opened the Cenozoic Era, generally called the Age of Mammals, but one that might more appropriately be called the Age of Arthropods, according to Richard Leakey and Roger Lewin (1996), since they are the largest phylum in existence, encompassing over 80% of known animal species.', 'In the late 1970s, a team of researchers led by Luis Alvarez of the University of California advanced the now widely accepted hypothesis that the impact of a large asteroid on Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula (or of an asteroid rain) unleashed or dealt the final blow to the chain of events known as the fifth extinction. The hypothesis that external factors also caused other extinctions has gained traction since 1984, when David Raup and Joseph John Sepkoski from the University of Chicago propounded the occurrence of about 12 extinction events (including the five largest), with a mean interval between events of 26 million years. The statistical analysis advanced by these scholars leads to the conclusion that 60% of all extinctions throughout the Phanerozoic Eon were at least triggered (if not caused) by the impact of asteroids or comets, which would act as first strikes, making the biotas vulnerable to other debilitating and destructive processes (Leakey and Lewin 1996). Whatever may be the current number of existing eukaryotic species—around eight million now being the most accepted number—since the 1980s, many scientists have been warning that the Earth is in the midst of a massive biodiversity extinction crisis caused by human activities, a process called the sixth extinction. This threatens to be as or even more annihilating than the previous five, given three characteristics that are peculiar to it:', '(1) It is not triggered by an exceptional, external event, but by a process internal to the biosphere—the increasing destructiveness of our globalized economic activity—a conscious, announced, increasingly well-known, and hitherto unstoppable process. The dynamics of the sixth extinction is not like the irradiation of waves caused by the impact of a stone on the surface of water, which tends to wane as its range extends into space and time; it is a process that is intensified in direct relation to the expansion of the commodity market, especially after 1950 and in the ensuing wave of capitalism’s extreme globalization, causing pollution, degradation, and destruction of non-anthropized habitats. Figure 10.1 clearly shows the brutal acceleration of species extinctions from the 1980s onward, closely related to increase in human population, following the degradation of natural habitats by the expansion of global agribusiness and other economic activities.', '(2) The second characteristic is that, far from implying the dominance of one taxonomic group over the others, the sixth extinction endangers the allegedly “dominant” species by destroying the web of biological sustenance that allows it to exist (Jones 2011). We will return to this point in the last chapter as we analyze [FIGURE 10.1 OMITTED] the illusions of anthropocentrism, but it is clear that the web of life that sustains our global society and, ultimately, our species is becoming weaker and weaker, as a multitude of scientists and diplomats never cease to repeat. In 2011, prefacing the Global Biodiversity Outlook 3 report, Achim Steiner, former Executive Director of the UNEP (2006–2016), warned of this compelling fact: “The arrogance of humanity is that somehow we imagine we can get by without biodiversity or that it is somehow peripheral: the truth is we need it more than ever on a planet of six billion heading to over nine billion people by 2050.”', '(3) The third characteristic of the sixth extinction is its overwhelming speed. The current rate of extinction is speeding up. As pointed out by Andy Purvis (2019), “while it is true that the very highest rate of confirmed extinctions was in the late 19th century, as flightless island birds fell prey to cats and rats introduced by Europeans, the rate was as high again by the end of the 20th century.” And over the past two decades, it has accelerated even further. Speed is perhaps the most important feature of the sixth extinction because this almost sudden characteristic suppresses a crucial evolutionary variable: the time it takes for species to adapt to and survive environmental changes. Based on extrapolations from a sample of 200 snail species, Claire Régnier and colleagues (2015) showed that we may have already lost 7% of the previously described nonmarine animal species. In other words, 130,000 of these nonmarine species may have been lost forever since their taxonomic record (see also Pearce 2015). Unlike the previous ones, the sixth extinction is not measurable on a geological scale, but on a historical scale, and the unit of time by which this scale is measured is shortening. In 1900, it occurred on the scale of centuries. Fifty years ago, the most appropriate observation scale would be the decade. Today, the unit of measurement for the advancement of the sixth extinction is the year or even the day. In June 2010, UNEP’s The State of the Planet’s Biodiversity document estimated that 150 to 200 species become extinct every 24 hours. This speed of the sixth extinction—I must repeat—cannot be compared to the previous five mass extinctions. More than 20 years ago, Peter M. Vitousek et al. (1997), reporting on then-recent calculations, stated that “rates of species extinction are now on the order of 100 to 1000 times those before humanity’s dominance of Earth.” According to a global survey of plant extinctions, “since 1900, nearly 3 species of seed-bearing plants have disappeared per year, which is up to 500 times faster than they would naturally” (Ledford 2019). In 2005, the Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Synthesis (2005), a report established by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, stated:', 'The rate of known extinctions of species in the past century is roughly 50–500 times greater than the extinction rate calculated from the fossil record of 0.1–1 extinctions per 1,000 species per 1,000 years. The rate is up to 1,000 times higher than the background extinction rates if possibly extinct species are included.', 'And the same document estimates that “projected future extinction rate is more than ten times higher than current rate.” In line with this projection, Chris Thomas et al. (2004) “predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15–37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be committed to extinction.”', '10.5 The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species', 'The number species threatened with extinction has grown rapidly over the past 50 years, as the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) records show. Today, this assessment divides species into nine categories: Not Evaluated, Data Deficient, Least Concern, Near Threatened, Vulnerable, Endangered, Critically Endangered, Extinct in the Wild, and Extinct. In 1964, the first IUCN’s Red List of Threatened Species was published, which periodically lists the species evaluated as Critically Endangered, Endangered, or Vulnerable.5 Table 10.1 gives us an idea of the speed of the process of species extinction that is underway.', 'To date, more than 105,700 species have been assessed for the IUCN Red List, and more than 28,000 species are threatened with extinction (27%). Between 2000 and 2013, with the increase in the number of species evaluated having quadrupled, the number of threatened species nearly doubled, from just over 10,000 in 2000 to 21,286 in 2013, as shown in Fig. 10.2.', 'Table 10.2 gives a picture of the evolution of the relationship between the evaluated species and those threatened with extinction over the last 10 years.', 'In the 2015 assessment, 14 species were shifted from the “Endangered” category to the “Critically Endangered (Possibly Extinct)” category.', '[TABLE 10.1 OMITTED]', '[FIGURE 10.2 OMITTED]', '[TABLE 10.2 OMITTED]', '10.6 The Living Planet Index (LPI) and the Decline in Terrestrial Vertebrate Populations', 'In the important 2017 study, quoted at the beginning of this chapter, Gerardo Ceballos, Paul Ehrlich, and Rodolfo Dirzo emphasize the global extent and speed of the recent decline in vertebrates:', 'Considering all land vertebrates, our spatially explicit analyses indicate a massive pulse of population losses, with a global epidemic of species declines. Those analyses support the view that the decay of vertebrate animal life is widespread geographically, crosses phylogenetic lineages, and involves species ranging in abundance from common to rare. (…) In the last few decades, habitat loss, overexploitation, invasive organisms, pollution, toxification, and more recently climate disruption, as well as the interactions among these factors, have led to the catastrophic declines in both the numbers and sizes of populations of both common and rare vertebrate species. For example, several species of mammals that were relatively safe one or two decades ago are now endangered.', 'In this paper, the authors’ objective differs from that of the IUCN, which is mainly concerned with risks of extinction and, therefore, with species whose populations are already scarce or rare and that have less territorial distribution. Unlike the IUCN, the three authors cited here also take into account the decline in “common” or abundant species. Thus, they propose a picture of the present process of “biological annihilation” of terrestrial vertebrates, perhaps even more dramatic than the one proposed by the IUCN’s Red List. Starting from the IUCN assessments, they divide this picture into two large groups. On one side, there are the species placed by the IUCN under the category “Low Concern” or “Data Deficient.” On the other side, there are the “Threatened Species,” according to their various threat levels (“Critically Endangered,” “Endangered,” “Vulnerable,” and “Near Threatened”). The result is captured in Fig. 10.3.', '[FIGURE 10.3 OMITTED]', 'The first column (Land vertebrates), which summarizes the four successive ones (mammals, birds, reptiles, and amphibians), shows that populations of about two thirds of terrestrial vertebrates are in decline; “this figure emphasizes,” the authors conclude, “that even species that have not yet been classified as endangered (roughly 30% in the case of all vertebrates) are declining. This situation is exacerbated in the case of birds, for which close to 55% of the decreasing species are still classified as ‘low concern.’”', 'This evaluation converges with the Living Planet Report 2018 (twelfth edition) of the Living Planet Index (WWF/ZSL), which measured the state of 16,704 populations of 4005 species. The results are frightening; on average, vertebrate animal populations in 2014 were well under half their 1970 levels. Between 1970 and 2014, 60% of worldwide vertebrate animal populations had been wiped out. In freshwater habitats, populations have collapsed by 83%, and in South and Central America, the worst affected region, there has been an 89% total drop in vertebrate animal populations. The key drivers of biodiversity decline, and the primary threats to these populations remain overexploitation (37%), habitat degradation (31.4%), and habitat loss (13.4%). As stressed by the authors of the Living Planet Report 2018, “of all the plant, amphibian, reptile, bird and mammal species that have gone extinct since AD 1500, 75% were harmed by overexploitation or agricultural activity or both.”', '10.7 The Two Extinction Pathways', 'Global capitalism tears the web of life in two complementary ways: as a direct and immediate consequence of its activities—legal or illegal—and as a reflexive and systemic mode of impact on habitats. In deforestation, timber trade, hunting, fishing, and trafficking of wild species, especially in the tropical world and in particular in Brazil, legal activity which is profoundly destructive conceals illegality and is inextricably intertwined with it. In June 2014, a joint report from UNEP and Interpol looked at illegal wildlife trafficking, assessing the magnitude of the monetary values involved (Nellemann 2009):', 'In the international community, there is now growing recognition that the issue of the illegal wildlife trade has reached significant global proportions. Illegal wildlife trade and environmental crime involve a wide range of flora and fauna across all continents, estimated to be worth USD 70–213 billion annually.', 'In Colombia, wildlife trafficking financed the FARC until the so-called pacification; in Uganda, it financed the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA); in Somalia, Al-Shabaab; and in Darfur, the Janjaweed. The same symbiosis between trafficking and militias is established in the Congo, the Central African Republic, Mali, and Niger. The Russian mafia has long profited from the trafficking of sturgeons and caviar. According to Interpol’s David Higgins, environmental crimes of this nature have increased by a factor of five in the past 20 years (Barroux 2014; Baudet and Michel 2015). According to the Brazilian I Relatório Nacional Sobre o Tráfico de Animais Silvestres [1st National Report on the Trafficking of Wild Animals] (2001), there are three types of illegal wildlife trade:', '(a) Animals for zoos and private collectors. This type of wildlife trafficking prioritizes the most endangered species, also because the rarer the animal, the greater its demand and, thus, the higher its market value.', '(b) Biopiracy for scientific, pharmaceutical, and industrial use. This type of trafficking focuses on species used in animal experiments and those that supply chemicals. It involves high monetary values, mostly coming from the pharmaceutical industry. In 2001, the value of one gram of poison from a brown spider (Loxosceles sp.) and from a coral snake (Micrurus frontalis), for example, could be as high as US$ 24,000 and US$ 30,000, respectively.', '(c) Animals for pet shops. According to the report, this is the process that most encourages wildlife trafficking, at least in Brazil.', 'This report also notes that countries which are among the major wildlife exporters include Brazil, Peru, Argentina, Guyana, Venezuela, Paraguay, Bolivia, Colombia, South Africa, Zaire, Tanzania, Kenya, Senegal, Cameroon, Madagascar, India, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, China, and Russia. And among the countries that import them, the most are: the USA, Germany, Holland, Belgium, France, England, Switzerland, Greece, Bulgaria, Saudi Arabia, and Japan. According to the Animal Rights News Agency (ANDA), Brazil accounts for 15% of wildlife trafficking worldwide.6 According to the I Relatório Nacional Sobre Gestão e Uso Sustentável da Fauna Silvestre [1st National Report on Use and Management of Wildlife in Brazil] (2016) by Renctas, defaunation rates in Brazil are colossal:', 'At least 60 million vertebrates (mainly birds, mammals, and some reptiles) are hunted illegally each year in the Brazilian Amazon. There are no data for other regions of Brazil but poaching still occurs in all ecosystems. (…) It is estimated that Brazil illegally exports 1.5 billion wild animals per year, an amount that globally reaches 10 billion reais [US$ 2 billion], losing in revenue only to drug and arms trafficking.', 'Like all other types of trafficking—of drugs, timber, electronic waste, weapons, and people (prostitution, organs, and tissues)—this one is also exceptionally profitable. The governments of exporting and importing countries are complicit in this ecocide by not equipping their inspecting agencies with budgets that are consistent with their surveillance and repression duties. These agencies remain vulnerable to corruption and have been unable to thwart gangs and deter criminals.', '10.8 The International Financial System', 'The international financial system is a key element in trafficking. Banks not only profit from crime, but—through a tangle of mechanisms that prevent the tracking of wealth from trafficking and that legalize this wealth—they make the line between legal and illegal economies invisible. The gains from wildlife trafficking end up sustaining the financial system through a complex network of resource transfusions among the various mafias, whether they are involved in environmental crimes or other types of crimes. Debbie Banks et al. (2008) are authors of a study by the London-based Environmental Investigation Agency (EIA) on money laundering in illegal timber trafficking in Papua. The study reports that:', 'An expert in forging shipping documents working from Singapore boasted to EIA investigators that he was “timber mafia” and that the trade was “better than drug smuggling.” The vast profits from this illegal trade accrued in bank accounts in Singapore and Hong Kong.', 'In one of the cases investigated, a corrupt police officer received $120,000, paid through 16 bank transfers from individuals linked to companies accused of illegal logging. These were the very companies this police officer was supposed to be investigating. Similar mechanisms occur in deforestation, a major factor in the decline of tropical biodiversity, as well as in animal trafficking. In the case of deforestation, we must remember, for example, that over 90% of deforestation in Brazil is illegal (Wilkinson 2019; MapBiomas http://mapbiomas.org/). Gains from environmental crimes (deforestation, hunting, illegal animal trafficking, etc.) navigate the network of international financial corporations and are in symbiosis with them: crime brings in wealth and banks legalize it and profit from it. This was evidenced by the collusion between organized crime and HSBC, which, according to Charles Ferguson, is not unique to that bank (Ferguson 2012). As Neil Barofsky (2012) emphasizes, for the “Judicial system”: “HSBC is not only too big to fail, but is also too big to jail.” In fact, when reported, their directors paid a fine corresponding to a few weeks’ earnings but were never defendants in a criminal lawsuit. The high-profit– low-risk mechanism reinforces the tacit symbiosis between the financial system and organized environmental crime.', '10.9 Systemic Destruction: 70% of Biodiversity Loss Comes from Agriculture and Livestock', 'Even when the destruction of plant and animal species is not illegal or is not an immediate business focus, global capitalism or, more precisely, the globalized production of soft commodities is systemically the main cause of biodiversity collapse. Agribusiness is certainly one of the most important causes of population decline and, ultimately, of the extinction of vertebrates and invertebrates. As the 2016 I Relatório Nacional Sobre Gestão e Uso Sustentável da Fauna Silvestre [1st National Report on Use and Management of Wildlife in Brazil] produced by Renctas states:', 'The destruction of natural environments eliminates thousands of animals locally. In the Amazon, between 5 and 10 thousand square kilometers of forest are cleared every year. In forests where there is no hunting, each square kilometer can house up to 95 medium and large mammals, depending on the forest. Therefore, deforestation may be eliminating between 475 to 950 thousand animals per year in the Amazon.', 'In addition to advancing over native vegetation cover, agribusiness intoxicates the soil, causes eutrophication of the aquatic environment through the use of chemical fertilizers, and poisons the environment with systemic pesticides. David Gibbons, Christy Morrissey, and Pierre Mineau (2014) present the results of a review of 150 studies on the direct (toxic) and indirect (food chain) action of three insecticides— fipronil and two neonicotinoid-class insecticides (imidacloprid and clothianidin)— on mammals, birds, fish, amphibians, and reptiles:', 'All three insecticides exert sub-lethal effects, ranging from genotoxic and cytotoxic effects, and impaired immune function, to reduced growth and reproductive success, often at concentrations well below those associated with mortality. Use of imidacloprid and clothianidin as seed treatments on some crops poses risks to small birds, and ingestion of even a few treated seeds could cause mortality or reproductive impairment to sensitive bird species.', 'Caspar Hallmann et al. (2014) also showed that regions with concentrations of more than 20 nanograms of imidacloprid per liter of water present a rapid decline in insectivorous bird population:', 'Recent studies have shown that neonicotinoid insecticides have adverse effects on non-target invertebrate species. Invertebrates constitute a substantial part of the diet of many bird species during the breeding season and are indispensable for raising offspring. We investigated the hypothesis that the most widely used neonicotinoid insecticide, imidacloprid, has a negative impact on insectivorous bird populations. Here we show that, in the Netherlands, local population trends were significantly more negative in areas with higher surface-water concentrations of imidacloprid. At imidacloprid concentrations of more than 20 nanograms per litre, bird populations tended to decline by 3.5 per cent on average annually.', 'According to the fourth edition of the UN Global Biodiversity Outlook (GBO-4, 2014), “drivers [of biodiversity loss] linked to agriculture account for 70% of the projected loss of terrestrial biodiversity.” Indeed, Manfred Lenzen et al. (2012) show that about one third of species threatened with extinction in “developing nations” are in this condition as a result of the extreme globalization of commodities trade. The study is the first to detect and quantify the cause and effect relationship between the 15,000 commodities produced for international trade in 187 countries and the threat to 25,000 animal species listed in the 2012 IUCN Red List. Orangutans, elephants, and tigers in Sumatra are on this list, for example, as victims of habitat degradation due to palm oil and pulpwood plantations. Within the past 25 years, agribusiness has destroyed 69% of the habitat of the Sumatran elephants (Elephas maximus sumatranus). Its population had declined by at least 80% during the past three generations, estimated to be about 75 years, and is now reduced to between 2400 and 2800 individuals. The IUCN has just reclassified the situation of these animals, no longer placing them in the “Endangered” species category, but in the “Critically Endangered” category. Also, in Brazil or, perhaps, especially in Brazil, agribusiness (mostly livestock) is the main culprit of biodiversity loss. The Red Book of Endangered Brazilian Fauna (ICMBio, Vol., 2018) clearly points to the major role that agribusiness plays in the destruction of Brazil’s immense natural heritage:', 'Throughout the country, the main pressure factors on continental species relate to the consequences of agriculture and livestock activities, either by fragmentation and decrease in habitat quality in areas where the activity is consolidated or by the ongoing process of habitat loss in areas where the activity is expanding. These activities affect 58% of the 1014 endangered continental species.', 'Figure 10.4 quantifies these pressure factors on Brazilian biodiversity.', '[FIGURE 10.4 OMITTED]', 'Of the 1014 continental species considered threatened, 592 are in this condition as a direct result of agriculture and livestock activities. Furthermore, 162 species are threatened by pollution, in particular by the use of pesticides, which affect “mainly invertebrates (river crabs, limnic mollusks, butterflies and springboards), but also fish, birds, amphibians, reptiles, and mammals.” Finally, 135 species are threatened by forest fires, the vast majority of which are caused by the agribusiness sector. This means that of the 1014 species evaluated in Brazil, close to 880, or about 87% of them, are directly threatened by agribusiness.', '10.10 Mammals', 'Regarding mammal species that are threatened (i.e., Critically Endangered, Endangered, and Vulnerable), the exacerbation of the phenomenon can be established with a high degree of reliability, since the 5506 species evaluated by IUCN coincide with the number of species described (a number that is certainly close to that of existing mammal species) and were calculated as follows, 21% in 2009 against 25% in 2019, a huge difference in the span of just 10 years. Population decline in non-synanthropic mammals is widespread, yet it varies according to their trophic level and is most acute among species at the top of the food pyramid: 77% of 31 large (over 15 pounds) carnivore species are declining, and more than half of these 31 species have already declined by 50% from their historical records (Ripple et al. 2014). In another paper, William Ripple et al. (2015) warn that large terrestrial herbivorous mammals, a group of about 4000 species, are also experiencing alarming rates of population decline:', 'Large herbivores are generally facing dramatic population declines and range contractions, such that ~60% are threatened with extinction. Nearly all threatened species are in developing countries, where major threats include hunting, land-use change, and resource depression by livestock. Loss of large herbivores can have cascading effects on other species including large carnivores, scavengers, mesoherbivores, small mammals, and ecological processes involving vegetation, hydrology, nutrient cycling, and fire regimes. The rate of large herbivore decline suggests that ever-larger swaths of the world will soon lack many of the vital ecological services these animals provide, resulting in enormous ecological and social costs.', 'An example of the decline of large terrestrial herbivores (those with a body mass of ≥100 kg) also in developed countries: according to the 2018 Arctic Report Card (NOAA), since the mid-1990s, the size of reindeer and caribou herds has declined by 56%. That’s a drop from an estimated 4.7 million animals to 2.1 million, a loss of 2.6 million (Sullivan 2018). Boreal caribou are disappearing across Canada as their original habitat has been cut in half. Only 14 of 51 herds are considered self-sustaining, and another third of the remaining boreal caribou could disappear in the next 15 years (Berman 2019).', 'Within the mammalian class, the primate order is declining particularly rapidly. The 2013 IUCN Red List reported that of the 420 species evaluated, 49% were threatened globally. The 2018 Red List shows that of the 450 species evaluated, 59.8% are now threatened. This race toward extinction was brought to light by a comprehensive study in 2017 involving 31 scientists and coordinated by Alejandro Estrada (UNAM):', 'Current information shows the existence of 504 species in 79 genera distributed in the Neotropics, mainland Africa, Madagascar, and Asia. Alarmingly, ~60% of primate species are now threatened with extinction and ~ 75% have declining populations. This situation is the result of escalating anthropogenic pressures on primates and their habitats—mainly global and local market demands, leading to extensive habitat loss through the expansion of industrial agriculture, large-scale cattle ranching, logging, oil and gas drilling, mining, dam building, and the construction of new road networks in primate range regions.', '10.11 Birds', 'The situation of birds has worsened at least since 1988, the date of the first full IUCN assessment. In the 2012 BirdLife International assessment (accredited by the IUCN), there were 1313 bird species threatened with extinction (Vulnerable, Endangered, and Critically Endangered), representing 13% of the 10,064 bird species described in the world. In BirdLife International’s State of the World’s Birds 2018, this percentage rises to 13.3%. In absolute terms, this means a huge increase in just 5 years, since now an additional 156 bird species are threatened with extinction, or 1469 species out of a universe of 11,000 species which have been described. The biggest cause of this decline, according to the document, continues to be agribusiness.', 'Europe lost 400 million birds from 1980 to 2009, and around 90% of this decline can be attributed to the 36 most common species, such as sparrows, starlings, and skylarks (Inger et al. 2014). Kenneth Rosenberg et al. (2019) reported population losses across much of the North American avifauna over 48 years, including once-common species and from most biomes: “Integration of range-wide population trajectories and size estimates indicates a net loss approaching 3 billion birds, or 29% of 1970 abundance.” The State of India’s Birds 2020 assessed the status of 867 species. Of the 261 species for which long-term trends could be determined, 52% have declined since the year 2000, with 22% declining strongly. Current annual trends could be estimated for 146 species. Of these, 79% have declined over the last 5 years, with almost 50% declining strongly. Just over 6% are stable and 14% increasing. According to a study by the Brazilian government conducted in 2016, of the 1924 bird species described, 233 species and subspecies were threatened with extinction. Of these, 42 were critically endangered. In the Amazon, BirdLife International’s 2012 IUCN Red List shows that almost 100 bird species are now closer to extinction.7 According to Leon Bennun, Director of science, policy, and information at BirdLife: “We have previously underestimated the risk of extinction that many of Amazonia’s bird species are facing. However, given the recent weakening of Brazilian forest law, the situation may be even worse than recent studies have predicted” (Harvey 2012).', 'Despite the international Convention on Migratory Species (1979), migratory birds continue to suffer from massive hunting. In Northeast India, 120,000 to 140,000 Amur falcons, or Eastern red-footed falcons (Falco amurensis), are hunted each year, mainly with nets as they pass through the Nagaland region on their annual migration from Siberia and northern China to Africa (Dalvi and Sreenivasan 2012). In Africa, the practice of catching migratory birds from northern latitudes dates back to the time of the pharaohs. But it is now performed on an infinitely larger scale, with equipment imported from China, such as huge plastic nets and recordings that attract the birds. Such techniques allow as many as 140 million birds to be killed each migratory season. According to Brian Finch, author of a migratory bird census in Kenya, “there’s a massive die-off of birds. We should be aware of the implications of taking all these insectivores out of the ecosystem” (Mangat 2013).', 'This awareness is critical. The abominable extermination of birds deprives the biosphere of fantastically beautiful, sensitive, and intelligent creatures. Birds are pollinators. According to WWF, the seeds of over 90% of all woody tree species are moved around by birds. Moreover, they are indispensable for the ecological balance and, therefore, for humanity. They control the numbers of pests that would otherwise plague our natural environments and our crops. We must remember the terrible consequences of the loss of these and other insectivores. By causing a terrible proliferation of insects, the near-extermination in China of the Eurasian tree sparrow (Passer montanus) under the Great Sparrow Campaign in 1958 was one of the causes of the so-called Great Chinese Famine (1958–1961), in which more than 20 million people starved to death. Today, climate change and the destruction of forest habitats, particularly by agriculture and livestock activities, are often cited as factors that explain the spread and sudden increase in populations of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, especially in the tropical and subtropical regions of the planet. But, as a supplementary factor, one might point out the drastic worldwide decline in bird populations and in other natural insect predators, such as reptiles and amphibians which are even more threatened. The Great Sparrow Campaign of 1958, ordered by Mao Zedong, was an act of ecological dementia. But the current decimation of birds through loss of wildlife, deforestation, increased use of pesticides, hunting, and trafficking is no less insane. This equation was suggested by Philip Lymbery and Isabel Oakeshott (2014):', 'The effect of agricultural policy in Europe and the Americas in the past few decades has been almost exactly the same as Mao’s purge. Tree sparrows—the same species that Mao targeted—have declined in Britain by 97% over the last forty years, largely due to the intensification of agriculture. The figures for other well-loved birds like turtle doves and corn buntings are no less alarming. Modern farming has become so “efficient” that the countryside is now too sterile to support native farmland birds.', 'Drugs and pesticides also kill animals on a large scale. Diclofenac injected into cattle is leading to kidney failure in five out of eight vulture species and in one eagle species (Aquila nipalensis) from India, which feed on their carcasses. This is an evil that now also affects 13 other eagle species in Asia, Africa, and Europe.8 Similarly, the US EPA has published a paper assessing the lethality of nine rodenticides on birds (especially owls, hawks, eagles, and crows) that feed on poisoned rats and mice.9', '10.12 Terrestrial Arthropods and the Decline in Pollinators', 'According to Nico Eisenhauer, Aletta Bonn, and Carlos Guerra (2019), the Red List of Threatened Species of the IUCN “is still heavily biased towards vertebrates, with invertebrates being particularly underrepresented.” Invertebrates include arthropods (insects, arachnids, myriapods, crustaceans), which, as seen above (Leakey and Lewin 1996), account for over 80% of all known living animal species. They are crucial to the functioning of ecosystems. Insects, for instance, pollinate 80% of wild plants and provide a food source for 60% of birds (Hallmann et al. 2017). Yet, a comprehensive review of 73 historical reports of insect declines from across the globe (Sanchez-Bayo and Wyckhuys 2019) reveals that the current proportion of insect species in decline is twice as high as that of vertebrates. Every year about 1% of all insect species are added to the list of threatened species, “with such biodiversity declines resulting in an annual 2.5% loss of biomass worldwide.” These dramatic rates of decline “may lead to the extinction of 40% of the world’s insect species over the next few decades.” According to the authors:', 'Habitat change and pollution are the main drivers of such declines. In particular, the intensification of agriculture over the past six decades stands as the root cause of the problem, and within it the widespread, relentless use of synthetic pesticides is a major driver of insect losses in recent times.', 'Mikhail Beketov et al. (2013) examined 23 streams in Germany, 16 in France, and 24 in Australia. They classified streams according to different levels of pesticide contamination: uncontaminated, slightly contaminated, and highly contaminated. Highly contaminated streams in Australia showed a decrease of up to 27% in the number of invertebrate families when compared to uncontaminated streams (Oosthoek 2013):', 'Pesticides caused statistically significant effects on both the species and family richness in both regions [Europe and Australia], with losses in taxa up to 42% of the recorded taxonomic pools. Furthermore, the effects in Europe were detected at concentrations that current legislation considers environmentally protective.', 'In 2014, the Task Force on Systemic Pesticides (TFSP), bringing together 29 researchers, stated in its findings that systemic pesticides pose an unmistakable and growing threat to both agriculture and ecosystems. Jean-Marc Bonmatin, a CNRS researcher in this working group, summarized these results (as cited by Carrington 2014):', 'The evidence is very clear. We are witnessing a threat to the productivity of our natural and farmed environment equivalent to that posed by organophosphates or DDT. Far from protecting food production, the use of neonicotinoid insecticides is threatening the very infrastructure which enables it.', '10.13 The Ongoing Collapse of Flying Insect Biomass', 'Caspar A. Hallmann et al. (2017) shed new light on the current scale of the decrease in flying insects in Europe; no longer using indicators of population abundance for specific species or taxonomic groups, they look at changes in insect biomass. From observations conducted during 27 years in 63 nature reserves in Germany, the authors estimate that the average flying insect biomass declined 76% (up to 82% in midsummer) in just 27 years in these locations. Tyson Wepprich et al. (2019) estimated the rate of change in total butterfly abundance and the population trends for 81 species using 21 years of systematic monitoring in Ohio, USA. They showed that “total abundance is declining at 2% per year, resulting in a cumulative 33% reduction in butterfly abundance.”', 'The ongoing collapse of flying insects in Europe and in the USA is the most visible part of a much broader phenomenon which entomologists are characterizing as “an accelerated decline in all insect species since the 1990s” (Foucart 2014). Insecticides are the main reason for this decline in insects, as pointed out by hundreds of scientific papers on insecticides that are called systemic. The order Lepidoptera, which represents about 10% of the known insect species and is one of the most studied, is not among the most severely affected. Nevertheless, several species of butterflies and moths are declining because of the destruction of their habitats and the elimination, by herbicides, of the plants that caterpillars feed on. According to Rodolfo Dirzo et al. (2014):', 'Globally, long-term monitoring data on a sample of 452 invertebrate species indicate that there has been an overall decline in abundance of individuals since 1970. Focusing on just the Lepidoptera (butterflies and moths), for which the best data are available, there is strong evidence of declines in abundance globally (35% over 40 years) Non-Lepidopteran invertebrates declined considerably more, indicating that estimates of decline of invertebrates based on Lepidoptera data alone are conservative.', 'Bill Freese and Martha Crouch (2015) showed that spraying Monsanto’s glyphosate herbicide on Roundup Ready corn and soybean seeds (genetically engineered to tolerate this herbicide) eradicated milkweeds, the only food source for the monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus). As a result, its existence is threatened. In the state of Florida, five species of butterflies were considered extinct in May 2013 by entomologist Marc Minno, and two more (Epargyreus zestos oberon and Hesperia meskei pinocayo) became extinct in July 2013 in the same region. Another species which is among the most beautiful, the so-called Madeiran large white (Pieris brassicae wollastoni), in Madeira, a Portuguese island, was declared extinct in 2006, falling victim to what IUCN’s Red List calls “natural system modification.”', 'The European Grassland Butterfly Indicator (EEA) estimates that in just over 20 years (1990–2011), half of the field butterflies disappeared from the landscape of 19 European countries. In Brazil, about 50 species of butterflies are threatened with extinction and listed in the IBAMA Red List.10 This decline is all the more worrying because butterflies are important bioindicators: they are considered indicators that represent trends observed in most terrestrial insects. Moreover, they are key to the preservation of these ecosystems, being a source of food for birds and, above all, because of their role as pollinators. This terrible decline in invertebrate biodiversity is not restricted to insects. The Earth’s Endangered Creatures lists 30 endangered arachnid species, stressing that the list is not exhaustive.', '10.14 Pollinators and the Crisis in Pollination', 'As pointed out by the IPBES (2016), over 40% of invertebrate pollinators and 16.5% of vertebrate pollinators are threatened with global extinction (increasing to 30% for island species). Since at least the end of the twentieth century, the decline in invertebrate pollinators has attracted public attention (Allen-Wardell et al. 2008). Pollination is a vital service for plant reproduction and biodiversity maintenance. Around 100,000 invertebrate species, especially insects, are involved in pollination, and “in extreme cases, their decline may lead to the extinction of plants and animals,” since “of the estimated 250,000 species of modern angiosperms, approximately 90% are pollinated by animals, especially insects” (Rocha 2012). Our food dependence on pollinators is, therefore, immense, and the consequences of this crisis can be catastrophic. According to a UNEP report (2010), based on FAO’s estimates, “out of some 100 crop species which provide 90% of food worldwide, 71 of these are bee-pollinated.” In the UK, the Living with Environmental Change Network (LWEC 2014) warned that:', 'Over three-quarters of wild flowering plant species in temperate regions need pollination by animals like insects to develop their fruits and seeds fully. This is important for the long-term survival of wild plant populations and provides food for birds and mammals. Pollinators improve or stabilize the yield of three-quarters of all crop types globally; these pollinated crops represent around one third of global crop production by volume.', 'In addition, 90% of the vitamin C we need comes from insect-pollinated fruits, vegetables, oils, and seeds. This support network for plant reproduction and biodiversity is weakening. The 2016 IPBES assessment on pollinators reaffirmed and updated these estimates: “75% of our food crops and nearly 90% of wild flowering plants depend at least to some extent on animal pollination.” Furthermore, the assessment concluded that “a high diversity of wild pollinators is critical to pollination even when managed bees are present in high numbers.” A study by Berry Brosi and Heather M. Briggs (2013) revealed the importance of this diversity:', 'We show that loss of a single pollinator species reduces floral fidelity (short-term specialization) in the remaining pollinators, with significant implications for ecosystem functioning in terms of reduced plant reproduction, even when potentially effective pollinators remained in the system. Our results suggest that ongoing pollinator declines may have more serious negative implications for plant communities than is currently assumed.', '10.15 Colony Collapse Disorder (CCD) and the Pesticides', 'The threat of extinction that hovers over bees (Apis mellifera) affects both wild and managed bees. David Hackenberg, an American commercial beekeeper, coined the term colony collapse disorder (CCD) in 2006: healthy hives have been deserted by the vast majority of worker bees who abandon the queen bee, a few nurse bees, the larvae, and the food reserves. This phenomenon currently strikes apiaries in the USA, Europe, Africa, China, Taiwan, Japan, the Middle East, and Brazil. It has manifested itself since the 1990s, but most markedly since 2006 in the USA, with losses reaching 30–90% of the hive population in Europe and in the USA. The winter 2018–2019 saw the highest honeybee colony losses on record in the USA (Reiley 2019).', 'Three groups of scientists—the French NGO Pollinis (Réseau des Conservatoires Abeilles et Pollinisateurs); the working group on systemic pesticides (TFSP, or Task Force on Systemic Pesticides), already mentioned in Chap. 4 (Sect. 4.10 “Industrial Pesticides”); and the IPBES—have accumulated evidence showing that the decline in bees is caused by habitat loss and systemic neurotoxic pesticides made from substances such as fipronil or neonicotinoids (clothianidin, imidacloprid, and thiamethoxam). The IPBES (2016) assessment concludes that “recent evidence shows impacts of neonicotinoids on wild pollinator survival and reproduction at actual field exposure.” These molecules, commercialized under the names of Gaucho, Cruiser, Poncho, Nuprid, Argento, etc., comprise about 40% of the world’s agricultural insecticide market, representing a value of over 2.6 billion dollars. They are distinguished from previous generations of insecticides by their toxicity, which is 5000–10,000 times greater than the famous DDT, for example (Foucart 2014). In addition to disrupting the neurological orientation system of bees, these pesticides weaken them and make them more vulnerable to viruses, mites (Varroa destructor), and other pathogens. In a study published by Jeffery Pettis et al. (2013), in which healthy bees were fed beehive pollen collected from 7 pesticide-contaminated agricultural crops, 35 pesticides (with high doses of fungicides) were detected in those samples, and contact with the samples made bees more susceptible to intestinal parasites. Ten categories of pesticides (carbamates, cyclodienes, formamidines, neonicotinoids, organophosphates, oxadiazines, pyrethroids, etc.) were considered:', 'Insecticides and fungicides can alter insect and spider enzyme activity, development, oviposition behavior, offspring sex ratios, mobility, navigation and orientation, feeding behavior, learning and immune function. Reduced immune functioning is of particular interest because of recent disease-related declines of bees including honey bees. Pesticide and toxin exposure increases susceptibility to and mortality from diseases including the gut parasite Nosema spp.. These increases may be linked to insecticide-induced alterations to immune system pathways, which have been found for several insects, including honey bees.', 'Tomasz Kiljaneck et al. (2016) published a new method for detecting the presence of 200 insecticides in bees at concentrations of 10 ng/g or less. They conclude, with regard to European bees, that “in total, 57 pesticides and metabolites were determined in poisoned honeybee samples.” Furthermore, these pesticides “even at very low levels at environmental doses and by interaction could weaken bees defense systems allowing parasites or viruses to kill the colony.” The lethality of pesticides is sufficiently demonstrated for the subgroup of species that includes bumblebees and Apis mellifera, which accounts for 80% of insect pollination. Juliet Osborne (2012) stressed the importance of a study conducted by Richard Gill, Oscar Ramos-Rodriguez, and Nigel Raine (2012) on bumblebees. The authors examined bumblebee responses to two pesticides:', 'We show that chronic exposure of bumblebees to two pesticides (neonicotinoid and pyrethroid) at concentrations that could approximate field-level exposure impairs natural foraging behaviour and increases worker mortality leading to significant reductions in brood development and colony success. We found that worker foraging performance, particularly pollen collecting efficiency, was significantly reduced with observed knock-on effects for forager recruitment, worker losses and overall worker productivity. Moreover, we provide evidence that combinatorial exposure to pesticides increases the propensity of colonies to fail.', 'The EPILOBEE study in 17 European countries found a widespread incidence of CCD, albeit more severe in northern European countries, with beehive losses ranging from 27.7% in France to 42.5% in Belgium (Foucart 2014). According to the USDA and the Apiary Inspectors of America, hives have been decimated in this country at rates between 21% and 34% per year since the winter of 2006/2007.11 In Brazil, the world champion in pesticide use, bee mortality has already reached 14 states. In the state of Sao Paulo, 55% of bees have disappeared, according to Lionel Segui Gonçalves (2017). According to Oscar Malaspina, there is a clear link between these occurrences and the use of pesticides, especially when launched by airplanes, since the wind carries the sprayed product to areas adjacent to those of the target plantation.12', '10.16 Three Certainties Among So Many Uncertainties', 'During the Pleistocene, our planet was inhabited by gigantic and spectacular animals. By the end of this geological age, between 2.5 million and 11,700 years BP, many of these species, such as mammoths, ground sloths, and giant tortoises, in addition to the various species belonging to the sabertooth genera, had been extinct, many of them probably by our species. According to William Ripple and Blaire Van Valkenburgh (2010), “humans may have contributed to the Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions. The arrival of the first humans, as hunters and scavengers, through top-down forcing, could have triggered a population collapse of large herbivores and their predators.” Since then, the still rich animal diversity of the Holocene has continued to become impoverished, with hundreds of species officially becoming extinct in the last 500 years and, especially, in the last half century (1970–2020). We are now suffering more and more from the so-called empty forest syndrome, a term coined by Kent Redford in 1992 to refer to a forest already depleted of its fauna by humans, even before it would be completely destroyed by them. Defaunation, in fact, precedes the final devastation of tropical forests by globalized capitalism. The final triumph of globalization in recent decades has greatly accelerated and continues to accelerate the ongoing collapse of biodiversity.', 'Chinachem, Bayer-Monsanto, DowDuPont and BASF are the largest suppliers of pesticides in the world. They are definitely the main culprits for the collapse of biodiversity, especially among invertebrates. But climate change, habitat degradation, and landscape homogeneity combined can aggravate effects of pesticides in nature. Climate change has accelerated range losses among many species. Peter Soroye, Tim Newbold, and Jeremy Kerr (2020) evaluated how climate change affects bumblebee species in Europe and North America. Their measurements provided evidence of rapid and widespread declines of bumblebees across Europe and North America: “bumble bees richness declined in areas where increasing frequencies of climatic conditions exceed species’ historically observed tolerances in both Europe and North America.” Thus, the current approach to regulatory environmental risk assessment of pesticides must be updated. “The overall picture is of a need to move to a more holistic view” (Topping et al. 2020). In fact, we are only beginning to understand the scale, dynamics, and consequences of the ongoing sixth mass extinction. In 1992, in his classic The Diversity of Life, Edward O. Wilson stated: “extinction is the most obscure and local of all biological processes.” As the IUCN warns, extinction risk has been assessed for only a small percentage of the total number of species described, which are, in turn, a small fraction of the biodiversity universe, recently estimated, as seen above, at 8 million eukaryotic species. Among so many uncertainties, three certainties, however, stand out:', '1. Defaunation and species extinctions in all taxonomic groups are undoubtedly accelerating, as evidenced by successive assessments from the IUCN, the Living Planet Index, and many other scientific assessments.', '2. Every species is precious not only for its own sake but also for its multiple interactions with other species in the web of life. As Sacha Vignieri (2014) rightfully reminds us:', 'Though for emotional or aesthetic reasons we may lament the loss of large charismatic species, such as tigers, rhinos, and pandas, we now know that loss of animals, from the largest elephant to the smallest beetle, will also fundamentally alter the form and function of the ecosystems upon which we all depend.', '3. With this increasing fragmentation of the web of life, we are approaching critical points. This is the fundamental message both of the IPBES Global Assessment Report (2019) and of the study by Rodolfo Dirzo et al. (2014), so often cited in this chapter: “Cumulatively, systematic defaunation clearly threatens to fundamentally alter basic ecological functions and is contributing to push us toward global-scale ‘tipping points’ from which we may not be able to return.” And Sacha Vignieri (2014) completes: if we are unable to reverse this ongoing collapse, “it will mean more for our own future than a broken heart or an empty forest.”', '[REFERENCES OMITTED]', '[CHAPTER 11 BEGINS]', 'For Samuel Iglésias (Santi 2015), “we are probably in the century that will see the extinction of marine fish.” In freshwater, where about 35,000 species of fish are known, the collapse of biodiversity has definitely begun, as hundreds of these species have already disappeared because of human activities. Ten years ago, Charles J. Vörösmarty et al. (2010) reported estimates, based on the IUCN, that “at least 10,000–20,000 freshwater species are extinct or at risk.” The ongoing death toll in freshwater ecosystems is obviously more overwhelming because of the smaller scale of these ecosystems and their greater exposure and vulnerability to fishing, to large dams which interfere with fish spawning, and to human pollution. Oceans cover 71% of the Earth’s surface, and in these huge ecosystems the impacts of humans are more diffuse and delayed. But already in 2011 (almost simultaneously, therefore, with the work coordinated by Vörösmarty on the extinction of freshwater species), a press release signed by the International Programme on the State of the Ocean (IPSO), the IUCN, and the World Commission on Protected Areas (WCPA) summarized the conclusions of an interdisciplinary and international workshop on the state of marine biodiversity in one sentence: “The world’s ocean is at high risk of entering a phase of extinction of marine species unprecedented in human history” (IPSO, IUCN, WCPA 2011). This scientific panel examined the combined effects of overfishing, pollution, ocean warming, acidification, and deoxygenation and concluded that:', 'The combination of stressors on the ocean is creating the conditions associated with every previous major extinction of species in Earth history. The speed and rate of degeneration in the ocean is far faster than anyone has predicted. Many of the negative impacts previously identified are greater than the worst predictions. Although difficult to assess because of the unprecedented speed of change, the first steps to globally significant extinction may have begun with a rise in the extinction threat to marine species such as reef forming corals.', 'In fact, over the past three decades, marine defaunation has been developing with increasing brutality and speed, as Douglas McCauley et al. (2015) warn: Although defaunation has been less severe in the oceans than on land, our effects on marine animals are increasing in pace and impact. Humans have caused few complete extinctions in the sea, but we are responsible for many ecological, commercial, and local extinctions. Despite our late start, humans have already powerfully changed virtually all major marine ecosystems.', 'Green sea turtles (Chelonia mydas), for example, might become extinct within the timespan of a generation or so. This is because their sex determination depends on the incubation temperature during embryonic development. The higher the temperature of the sand where the eggs are incubated, the higher the incidence of females. This warming also causes high mortality rates in their offspring. Michael Jensen et al. (2018) state that:', 'Turtles originating from warmer northern Great Barrier Reef nesting beaches were extremely female-biased (99.1% of juvenile, 99.8% of subadult, and 86.8% of adult-sized turtles). (…) The complete feminization of this population is possible in the near future.', 'Extermination of aquatic life is caused by a wide range of anthropogenic impacts, including overfishing, pollution, river damming, warming of the aquatic environment, aquaculture, decline in phytoplankton, eutrophication, deoxygenation, acidification, death, and destruction of corals. Each endangered species in the aquatic environment is vulnerable to at least one of these factors. Just to name two examples:', '1. Sturgeon (the common name for the 27 species of fish belonging to the family Acipenseridae): this magnificent water giant that has been able to evolve and adapt to so many transformations of the Earth’s system since the Triassic period, over 200 million years ago, is now succumbing to overfishing and to anthropic interference in its habitats. No less than 24 of its 27 species are endangered, and, according to IUCN, sturgeons are “more critically endangered than any other group of species.”', '2. In the 1950s, thousands of baiji (Lipotes vexillifer), a species that had evolved over 20 million years, lived in the waters of the Yangtze; by 1994, fewer than 100 individuals remained, and by 2006, the dolphin had become extinct by pollution, dam building, and reckless navigation (Bosshard 2015).', '11.1 Mammals', 'After the Baiji extinction, there are, according to WWF, only six remaining species of freshwater dolphins in the world, three in South America, and three in Asia, five of them vulnerable, endangered, or critically endangered: (1) the Amazon river dolphin (Inia geoffrensis), also known as boto or pink river dolphin; (2) the Bolivian river dolphin (Inia boliviensis); (3) the tucuxi (Sotalia fluviatilis), found throughout the Amazon and Orinoco river basins; (4) the Ganges river dolphin (Platanista gangetica), also known as the Ganga or the soons; (5) the Indus river dolphin (Platanista gangetica minor); and (6) the Irrawaddy dolphin (Orcaella brevirostris). The population of the Irrawaddy dolphin in Laos has been decimated by the fishing industry, and the fate of this species is definitely sealed by the construction of the Don Sahong Dam on the Mekong River in southern Laos (Russo 2015). Two Amazonian freshwater dolphin species, the pink river dolphin and the tucuxi, are critically endangered if the reduction rate of their populations in the observed area (the Mamirauá Sustainable Development Reserve) is the same in all of their habitats. Both species are now in steep decline, with their populations halving every 10 years (botos) and 9 years (tucuxis) at current rates, according to a study conducted between 1994 and 2017 (Silva et al. 2018). The extinction of the soons, the river dolphins of India, is imminent, despite their status as the National Aquatic Animal since 2009. Between the end of the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, its population was estimated at 50,000 in the Ganges alone. It had fallen to 5000 in 1982 and to 1200–1800 in 2012 on the Brahmaputra and Ganges rivers and their tributaries. The proposed Tipaimukh dam on the Barak River in northeast India may sound the death knell for the Ganges river dolphin in Assam’s Barak River system (Ghosh 2019).', 'Similar existential threats also loom over many marine mammals, and species extinctions have started to occur in recent years. The Japanese sea lion (Nihon ashika, Zalophus japonicus) was last observed in 1974 and is considered extinct. The Caribbean monk seal (Monachus tropicalis), a mammal over 2 m long, was officially declared extinct by the IUCN in 2008. The vaquita (Phocoena sinus), a small cetacean endemic to the northern part of the Gulf of California, is on the brink of extinction. According to IUCN, “the vaquita is the most endangered marine mammal species in the world. (…) Its status has continued to deteriorate [since 1958] because of unrelenting pressure from incidental mortality in fisheries.” In fact, the vaquita usually dies entangled in nets used to catch totoaba (Totoaba macdonaldi), a species that is also “critically endangered” (IUCN), as its swim bladders are in high demand, especially in China. In the 1990s, there were already only 600 to 800 vaquitas and in 2014 only 100. Its extinction is imminent because in 2018 its population was reduced to no more than 15. The South Island Hector’s and Māui dolphins are subspecies of the Hector’s dolphin Cephalorhynchus hectori, whose only habitat is New Zealand’s coastal waters, which is critically endangered. Both subspecies are threatened with extinction. The Māui dolphin (Cephalorhynchus hectori maui) or popoto is on the edge of extinction. Its population is estimated at 55 individuals, and this species, the smallest of the world’s 32 dolphin species, may be extinct in a near future (Rotman 2019).', 'According to the Marine Mammal Commission of the USA, the population of the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) is listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act and designated as depleted (8810 individuals in 2016) under the Marine Mammal Protection Act. An estimated 824 Florida manatees died in 2018, “a nearly 50% increase over the number of deaths in 2017 and the second-highest death count ever” (Platt and Kadaba 2019). According to Jacqueline Miller (2016):', '[t]he historical population of the blue whale [Balaenoptera musculus] has been estimated at somewhere between 300,000 and 350,000. Between 1909 and 1965, the reported kill of the blue whales in the Antarctic alone (…) was 328,177. By 1966 this number had increased to an estimated 346,000 blue whales killed. When commercial whaling of the blue whale was finally banned, it was estimated they had suffered up to a 99% population loss. Present estimates are between 5,000 and 10,000 in the Southern Hemisphere, and between 3,000 and 4,000 in the Northern Hemisphere.', 'Currently, the IUCN considers the blue whale the largest animal ever known to have existed (24–30 m), and other 20 marine mammals to be endangered, and the following whale species to be critically endangered (Findlay and Child 2016): southern blue whale (Balaenoptera musculus intermedia), western gray whale (Eschrichtius robustus), Svalbard-Barents sea bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus), North Pacific right whale (Eubalaena japonica), Chile-Peru southern right whale (Eubalaena australis), and Cook Inlet beluga whale (Delphinapterus leucas).', 'Just like the Japanese sea lion (Nihon ashika, Zalophus japonicus) which was wiped out by hunting, whales can also suffer the same fate, given the fact that Japan, Iceland, and Norway, which are currently considered pirate whaling nations, continue to hunt and kill fin, minke, and sei whales every year. Japan alone has killed more than 8000 whales under the guise of scientific research since the 1986 Moratorium on Commercial Whaling established by the International Whaling Commission (IWC). On the other hand, since 2002, over 6000 whales have been saved from the Japanese whalers by the Sea Shepherd Conservation Society (SSCS), the heroic and combative NGO, created by Paul Watson and severely repressed by the governments of the USA, Australia, and New Zealand, in addition to being deemed an eco-terrorist organization by the Japanese government. Due to such pressures, Paul Watson declared in 2017 that the SSCS was abandoning the pursuit of Japanese whalers.', '11.2 Noise Pollution', 'One of the biggest stressors of marine life is man-made noise pollution. “Hydrophones anchored to the continental slope off California, for instance, have recorded a doubling of background noise in the ocean every two decades since the 1960s” (Brannen 2014). Alison Stimpert et al. (2014) documented the susceptibility of Baird’s beaked whales (Berardius bairdii) to mid-frequency active military sonar. There is a well-documented link between the military sound pulses and mass strandings in which dozens of the mammals have died (Batchelor 2019). The Apache Alaska Corporation deafened Beluga whales by detonating—every 10 or 12 seconds for 3–5 years—air guns for underwater oil and gas prospecting in the only habitat in which they still survive (Broad 2012). A 2012 New York Times editorial underlines that:1', 'Sound travels much faster through water than it does through air, magnifying its impact, and many of the sounds the Navy plans to generate fall in the frequencies most damaging to marine mammals. More than five million of them may suffer ruptured eardrums and temporary hearing loss, in turn disrupting normal behavioral patterns. As many as 1800 may be killed outright, either by testing or by ship strikes.', 'Between 2014 and 2019, the US Navy conducted firing exercises in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and in the Gulf of Mexico.', '11.3 Overfishing and Aquaculture', 'Dirk Zeller and Daniel Pauly (2019) highlighted the two factors that contributed to the Great Acceleration after 1950, referring specifically to industrial scale fishing: “(1) the reliance on and availability of cheap fossil fuels; and (2) the gradual incorporation of technologies developed for warfare (e.g., radar, echo sounders, satellite positioning, etc.).” Due to these two factors, worldwide per capita fish consumption more than doubled in the last 60 years. According to FAO (2018), between 1961 and 2016, the average annual increase in global food fish consumption (3.2%) outpaced population growth (1.6%). In per capita terms, this consumption grew from 9 kg in 1961 to 20.2 kg in 2015, at an average rate of about 1.5% per year. Already in 2013, industrialized countries consumed 26.8 kg of fish per capita. Consumption of fish in the European Union increased for nearly all of the main commercial species. It reached 24.33 kg per capita in 2016, 3% more than in 2015. The top five species eaten in the EU—tuna, cod, salmon, Alaska pollock, and shrimp—amounted to 43% of the market in 2016. These species were mostly imported from non-EU countries (EUMOFA 2018).', 'Global seafood production by fisheries and aquaculture was estimated at 167 million tons in 2014 and at 171 million tons in 2016, of which 88% was utilized for direct human consumption (FAO 2018). In 2012, 15 countries accounted for 92.7% of all aquaculture production, with 88% of global production coming from Asia. Twenty years ago, Rosamond Naylor et al. (2000) had already announced the unsustainable character of aquaculture:', 'Many people believe that such growth [of aquaculture] relieves pressure on ocean fisheries, but the opposite is true for some types of aquaculture. Farming carnivorous species requires large inputs of wild fish for feed. Some aquaculture systems also reduce wild fish supplies through habitat modification, wild seedstock collection and other ecological impacts. On balance, global aquaculture production still adds to world fish supplies; however, if the growing aquaculture industry is to sustain its contribution to world fish supplies, it must reduce wild fish inputs in feed and adopt more ecologically sound management practices.', 'China’s aquatic farms provide more fish than the country’s fishing activities, and the interaction between sewage, industrial and agricultural waste, and pollution caused by aquaculture itself has devastated Chinese marine habitats (Barboza 2007).', 'In 2016, lakes, rivers, and oceans were scoured by 4.6 million boats and fishing vessels, 3.5 million of which were Asian (75%), searching for declining shoals of fish (FAO 2018). In fact, the decline in shoals explains why fishery output (excluding discarded fish) reached 93.8 million tons in 1996 and stabilized thereafter to around 90–92 million tons. Since then, the growth in seafood consumption has been increasingly supplied by aquaculture, which more than doubled during the 1990s with a 10% annual growth rate, although its average annual growth fell to 6% between 2000 and 2014 and to 5.8% between 2010 and 2016 (FAO 2018). According to a Rabobank report (2017), “aquaculture is expected to continue its growth in 2018, albeit at a gradually declining rate. Growth in both 2017 and 2018 is estimated to be in the 3% to 4% in volume terms.” This growth rate decline could be irreversible as aquaculture is susceptible to climate change and environmental extremes (Plagányi 2019; FAO 2018). Figure 11.1 differentiates between wild capture and aquaculture.', 'With regard to fishing, Daniel Pauly and Dirk Zeller (2016) show that this graph does not reflect the actual world fishing curve because 30% of global fish catch go unreported every year. According to these two experts on seafood depletion, this curve has peaked at a much higher number (130 million tons) and has since been declining three times faster than the FAO curve suggests, with a loss of one million tons a year due to overfishing (see also Carrington 2016). Figure 11.2 provides a clearer picture of both overfishing and the decline in marine fish stocks beginning in the 1990s:', 'The graph above shows that this decline is undoubtable and fishing corporations, a sector that is heavily controlled by oligopolies, bear sole responsibility for it. In fact, according to Henrik Österblom et al. (2015):', 'Thirteen corporations control 11–16% of the global marine catch (9–13 million tons) and 19–40% of the largest and most valuable stocks, including species that play important roles in their respective ecosystem. They dominate all segments of seafood production, operate through an extensive global network of subsidiaries and are profoundly involved in fisheries and aquaculture decision-making.', 'Of these 13 multinationals, 4 have headquarters in Norway, 3 in Japan, 2 in Thailand, 1 in Spain, 1 in South Korea, 1 in China, and 1 in the USA. The revenues of these [FIGURE 11.1 OMITTED] [FIGURE 11.2 OMITTED] 13 corporations (0.5% of the 2250 fishing and aquaculture companies worldwide) corresponded to 18% of the value of seafood in 2012 (USD 252 billion).', '11.4 Fish Stocks on the Verge of Collapse', 'Back in 2006 Boris Worm and many other ocean scientists published an alarming report on the state of fisheries:', 'There is no reasonable doubt that most major declines in stock biomass and in corresponding yields are due to unsustainable levels of fishing pressure. Global assessments of stock biomass support our conclusions that a large fraction of the world’s fished biodiversity is overexploited or depleted (24% of assessed stocks in 2003), that this fraction is increasing (from 10% in 1974), and that recovery of depleted stocks under intense management is still an exception (1% in 2003).', 'Graham Edgar et al. (2014) showed that “total fish biomass has declined about two-thirds from historical baselines as a result of fishing.” Assessing 5829 populations of 1234 marine vertebrate species, the Living Blue Planet Report (WWF-ZSL 2015) provides a comprehensive picture of this situation until 2012:', 'Marine vertebrate populations declined 49% between 1970 and 2012. Populations of fish species utilized by humans have fallen by half, with some of the most important species experiencing even greater declines. Around one in four species of sharks, rays and skates is now threatened with extinction, due primarily to overfishing. Tropical reefs have lost more than half their reef-building corals over the last 30 years. Worldwide, nearly 20% of mangrove cover was lost between 1980 and 2005. 29% of marine fisheries are overfished. If current rates of temperature rise continue, the ocean will become too warm for coral reefs by 2050. (…) Just 3.4% of the ocean is protected, and only part of this is effectively managed.', 'As Ken Norris, Director of Science at the Zoological Society of London (ZSL), said in a statement (Doyle 2015), “this report suggests that billions of animals have been lost from the world’s oceans in my lifetime alone. (…) This is a terrible and dangerous legacy to leave to our grandchildren.” This harsh reality, one that our grandchildren will have no means of coping with, is one that even we are now beginning to feel. Populations of some commercial fish stocks, such as tuna, mackerel, and bonito, fell by almost 75% between 1970 and 2012. Other less iconic and smaller species face similar situations (Zakaib 2011). Over the past 20 years, stocks of hake, flounder, sole, halibut, mackerel, mackerel scad (Decapterus macarellus), horse mackerel, and other fish belonging to the Carangidae family have gone from 30 million tons to just 3 million. To continue to supply the market, fishing must now extend over 6000 km from Peru to the Antarctic boundary and cover 120° of longitude, half the distance between Chile and New Zealand. The stocks of Chilean jack mackerel (Trachurus murphyi of the family Carangidae) decreased by 63% between 2006 and 2011 alone and, according to Daniel Pauly, “when Chilean jack mackerel disappears, everything else will be gone.”2 Data from Sea Around Us on fishing corporations allow Pauly to state that “the catch is going down by 2% a year, but it looks more stable than it is. What they do is deplete one stock and then move onto another, which means they’re going to run out of fish in a few decades” (Pala 2016). Boris Worm et al. (2006) project the global collapse of all taxa currently fished by the mid-twenty-first century. Also for Paul Watson (Facebook 8/XII/2019), founder of the Sea Shepherd Conservation Society, “by 2048 there will be no commercial fishing industry because there will be no fish. (…) If the fishes die out, the Ocean dies and when the Ocean dies, humanity dies with it.”', 'The current decline in fish populations explains why “aquaculture has recently superseded wild-capture fisheries as the main source of seafood for human consumption” (Guillen et al. 2019). In fact, industrial fishing would already be unprofitable if it were not supported by subsidies that encourage overfishing, mostly in developed countries. These subsidies “are worth an estimated US$14-35 billion— even though the global fishing fleet is 2–3 times larger than the ocean can sustainably support” (WWF-ZSL 2015).', '11.5 Regional Declines, Some Irreversible', 'The decline in marine life has, in many cases, reached irreversible levels. In the USA, for example, the Sustainable Fisheries Act (SFA) of 1996 set specific quotas for the 44 species protected by law. Even so, eight of them were no longer recoverable. Moreover, these restrictive fishing quotas in US waters may have an even greater impact on oceans that are distant from the country, as 62–65% of seafood consumed in the USA is imported, according to Jessica Gephart, Halley Froehlich, and Trevor Branch (2019). Richard Conniff (2014) adds a factor that aggravates this picture: one-third of US fish imports hail from trafficking, that is, they are considered IUU fishing, the technical term for illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing. On the west coast of the USA, shoals of sardines have decreased by about 90% since 2007, from an estimated 1.4 million tons (2007) to roughly 100,000 tons in 2015. In light of this critical situation, the Pacific Fishery Management Council decided to ban fishing of sardines from Mexico to Canada, starting on July 1, 2015 (Fimrite 2015). This was too late, though. Four years after this moratorium, a new stock assessment released by the National Marine Fisheries Service in July 2019 revealed that the population of Pacific sardines amounted to only 27,547 tons. The Pacific sardine population has plummeted by 98.5% since 2006. The impacts of this collapse are echoing in the entire marine ecosystem. According to Elizabeth Grossman (2015):', 'Sardines, which are exceptionally nutritious because of their high oil content, are vital to mother sea lions feeding their pups and to nesting brown pelicans. (…) Starving pups have been seen on California’s Channel Islands (…). In addition, California brown pelicans have been experiencing high rates of nesting failure and thousands have been dying.', 'In January 2015, fishing corporations in Brazil obtained, from the government, amendments to the legislation that regulates the capture of 409 fish species and 66 aquatic invertebrates (Annex I list of IUCN). Alexander Lees (2015) warns that such a change may represent “a serious setback for conservation and for the sustainable management of fisheries in Brazil.” In 2010, according to a survey conducted in the seas of Brazil, overfishing devastated 80% of marine species. One hundred thousand tons of sardines were fished, for example, between the coast of Rio de Janeiro and Santa Catarina alone.3 The increasing pressure of overfishing on Brazilian shoals has been ignored because the last survey on fishing in Brazil dates from 2011 and, since then, there has been no quantitative or qualitative data. In the Western and Eastern Mediterranean, 96% and 91% of fish stocks are overfished, respectively. European fishermen are catching fish on average six times more than the so-called maximum sustainable yield (MSY), a limit beyond which the reproduction of these species becomes impossible. This limit is respected by only 4% of European fisheries.', '11.6 Bottom Trawling: Fishing as Mining', 'With industrial fishing, we observe once again the most defining law of global capitalism: as natural resources become scarce, capitalism generates new technologies and more radical means of exploration and increasing devastation. Therefore, the first declines or collapses of shoals in the 1990s typically led to the use of an even more brutal method of exploitation than those that caused the scarcity: bottom trawling. According to the Living Blue Planet Report (WWF-ZSL 2015):', 'Only a few decades ago it was virtually impossible to fish deeper than 500 meters: now, with technological improvements in vessels, gear and fish-finding equipment, bottom trawling is occurring at depths of up to 2,000 meters. Most deep-sea fisheries considered unsustainable have started to target fish populations that are low in productivity, with long lifespans, slow growth and late maturity. This leads to rapid declines in the population and even slower recovery once the stock has collapsed.', 'Trawling can refer to bottom trawling in search of demersal species or to midwater trawling, which involves the use of probes and GPS to fix the exact depth of the net. In both cases, the result is catastrophic for marine populations. As Elliott A. Norse, President of the Marine Conservation Institute in Washington, and colleagues (2011) reveal how bottom trawling, which scrape the seafloor, are a form of mining for marine life:', 'As coastal fisheries around the world have collapsed, industrial fishing has spread seaward and deeper in pursuit of the last economically attractive concentrations of fishable biomass. (…) The deep sea is by far the largest but least productive part of the oceans, although in very limited places fish biomass can be very high. (…) Many deep-sea fisheries use bottom trawls, which often have high impacts on nontarget fishes (e.g., sharks) and invertebrates (e.g., corals), and can often proceed only because they receive massive government subsidies. The combination of very low target population productivity, nonselective fishing gear, economics that favor population liquidation and a very weak regulatory regime makes deep-sea fisheries unsustainable with very few exceptions. Rather, deep-sea fisheries more closely resemble mining operations that serially eliminate fishable populations and move on.', 'According to the FAO and the authors of this study, bottom trawling increased sevenfold between 1960 and 2004. It has also expanded since the 1950s toward the southern seas at an average rate of 1° latitude per year.', '11.7 Hypoxia and Anoxia', '“There is no environmental variable of such ecological importance to marine ecosystems that has changed so drastically in such a short period of time as a result of human activities as dissolved oxygen” (Laffoley and Baxter 2019). The loss of oxygen from the world’s ocean is a growing threat. The oxygen concentrations have already begun to decline in the twentieth century, both in coastal and offshore areas. They declined by roughly 2% between 1960 and 2010 (Laffoley and Baxter 2019), and the 2013 IPCC Assessment Report (AR5) predicts that they will decrease by 3–6% during this century, only in response to water warming.4 Multidecadal trends and variability of dissolved oxygen (O2) in the ocean from 1958 to 2015 were quantified by Takamitsu Ito et al. (2017). The authors conclude that:', 'A widespread negative O2 trend is beginning to emerge from the envelope of interannual variability. The global ocean O2 inventory is negatively correlated with the global ocean heat content. (…) The trend of O2 falling is about 2 to 3 times faster than what we predicted from the decrease of solubility associated with the ocean warming.', 'The primary causes of ocean deoxygenation are eutrophication, nitrogen deposition from the burning of fossil fuels, and ocean warming. Eutrophication in coastal areas, a phenomenon described by Richard Vollenweider in 1968, is the degenerative response of an ecosystem to the abnormal accumulation of nitrogen and phosphate in water, which stimulates the proliferation of algae and results in the formation of toxic material; release of hydrogen sulfide (H2S), an equally toxic gas; and obstruction of solar light by algae. When the algae die, they sink and are broken down by microorganisms in a process called bacterial respiration, one that consumes oxygen. This results in hypoxia or, ultimately, anoxia (insufficient or no oxygen concentrations in the water), which leads to the death and decomposition of aquatic organisms and, consequently, to more bacterial activity, in a snowball effect of environmental intoxication and decrease in biodiversity. Although eutrophication may occur for natural reasons, this process has recently been the result of anthropogenic activities, such as agriculture, industry, and sewage disposal. According to a new IUCN report (Laffoley and Baxter 2019), “over 900 areas of the ocean around the world have already been identified as experiencing the effects of eutrophication. Of these, over 700 have problems with hypoxia.”', 'There is a cause and effect relationship between the discharge of municipal effluents, nitrogenated fertilizers, and other phytostimulation compounds composed of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and phosphate (K)—a sector dominated by ten global corporations— and the pollution of soil, atmosphere, and water. By prefacing the 2013 report of Our Nutrient World (Sutton et al. 2013), Achim Steiner summarizes the problem:', 'Excessive use of phosphorus is not only depleting finite supplies, but triggering water pollution locally and beyond while excessive use of nitrogen and the production of nitrogen compounds is triggering threats not only to freshwaters but to the air and soils with consequences for climate change and biodiversity.', '11.8 Industrial Fertilizers', 'Since the second half of the twentieth century, there has been a growing consumption of fertilizers, one that is occurring at much higher rates than population growth. According to Denise Breitburg et al. (2018):', 'The human population has nearly tripled since 1950. Agricultural production has greatly increased to feed this growing population and meet demands for increased consumption of animal protein, resulting in a 10-fold increase in global fertilizer use over the same period. Nitrogen discharges from rivers to coastal waters increased by 43% in just 30 years from 1970 to 2000, with more than three times as much nitrogen derived from agriculture as from sewage.', 'Figure 11.3 shows this growth curve by one order of magnitude. World consumption of industrial fertilizers jumped from about 18 million tons in 1950 to 180 million tons in 2013.', 'In 1998, the world produced 137 million tons of chemical fertilizers, 15% of which were consumed in the USA. Between 1950 and 1998, worldwide use of petrochemical fertilizers increased more than four times per capita (Horrigan et al. 2002). In addition, fertilizer use per hectare of plowed land is increasing, from 110.2 kg/ha in 2003 to 122.4 kg/ha in 2009, according to data from the World Bank. This overconsumption of fertilizers is a consequence of soil depletion, but it is also induced by the dictate of profit maximization. We can speak of hyper-consumption because most of the nitrogen and/or phosphorus contained in these fertilizers is not absorbed by plants. David Tilman (1998) estimates that agriculture absorbs only 33% to 50% of the nitrogen contained in it. For its part, Our Nutrient World, the report mentioned above, states that 80% of nitrogen and between 25% and 75% of phosphorus from fertilizers are not incorporated into plants and are dispersed into the environment. Part of this excess penetrates the water tables, and part of it is carried by rain to rivers, lakes, and the sea (Sutton et al. 2013).', 'There is no recent assessment of the current degree of water eutrophication worldwide. A survey of water eutrophication at the end of twentieth century by the UNEP showed that, globally, 30% to 40% of lakes and reservoirs were then affected [FIGURE 11.3 OMITTED] to varying degrees of eutrophication (Zhang et al. 2019). In 1988, 1990, 1991, 1992, and 1994, the International Lake Environment Committee (ILEC) published interim reports, titled Survey of the State of World Lakes. They indicated that eutrophication affected 54% of lakes in Asia, 53% of lakes in Europe, 48% in North America, 41% in South America, and 28% in Africa. In the USA, the EPA’s first National Rivers and Streams Assessment 2008–2009 (NRSA), published in 2013, examined 1924 sites in rivers and streams in the country. The scope of the NRSA was to determine to what extent US rivers and streams provide healthy biological conditions, as well as the magnitude of chemical stressors that affect them:', 'NRSA reports on four chemical stressors: total phosphorus, total nitrogen, salinity and acidification. Of these, phosphorus and nitrogen are by far the most widespread. Forty-six percent of the nation’s river and stream length has high levels of phosphorus, and 41% has high levels of nitrogen.', 'In summary, only 21% of the country’s rivers and streams are in “good biological condition,” and 23% of them are in “fair condition,” while 55% of them are in poor condition.” Eastern rivers face an even worse fate, with 67.2% of rivers and streams in poor biological condition.', '11.9 Ocean Dead Zones: An Expanding Marine Cemetery', 'In seawater, oxygen exists in different concentrations, varying between 6 ml/l and 8.5 ml/l, depending on the water’s temperature and salinity. The term hypoxia applies to when the oxygen concentration is less than 2 ml/l and the term anoxia to when this concentration is less than 0.5 ml/l. Under these conditions, fish that cannot flee in time tend to become disoriented, or they faint and die from asphyxia. Organisms that cannot move with speed, such as crustaceans, and those that live fixed on other structures die in their entirety and their putrefaction retroactively feeds (through bacterial respiration) hypoxia and anoxia.', 'The phenomena of hypoxia or anoxia may occur naturally, but they are rare, small-scale, and only seasonal. The anthropogenic factors listed above turn them into frequent and growing phenomena that are large scale and sometimes permanent. An anoxic zone, thus, becomes a marine cemetery where there is no place for vertebrates and other multicellular species. Ocean dead zones with almost zero oxygen have quadrupled in size since 1950, but between 2003 and 2011 alone they more than tripled. “Currently [2016], the total surface area of Oxygen Minimum Zones (OMZ) is estimated to be ~30 × 106 km2 (~8% of the ocean’s surface area).”5 According to Robert J. Diaz of the Virginia Institute of Marine Science, these areas have roughly doubled every decade (Perlman 2008). Figure 11.4 shows the 10-year increase in the number of dead zones between the early twentieth century and 2006.', 'In 2011, the WRI and the Virginia Institute of Marine Science identified 530 dead zones and 228 zones displaying signs of marine eutrophication.6 Some of the most acute cases of dead zones are the North Adriatic Sea; the Chesapeake Bay in the USA, an area of over 18,000 km2 off the northern shores of the Gulf of Mexico; the mouth of the Mississippi River; Tokyo Bay; certain sea areas that bathe China, Japan, Southeast Australia, and New Zealand; as well as Venezuela’s Gulf of Cariaco. Other larger ocean dead zones are found in parts of the North Sea, the Baltic Sea, and the Kattegat Strait between Denmark and Sweden. In 2012, Osvaldo Ulloa from the Center for Oceanographic Research at the University of Concepción in Chile noted the emergence of new anoxic zones off northern Chile’s Iquique coast. According to Ulloa, prior to this study, it was not thought that there could be completely oxygen-free areas in the open sea, let alone at levels so close to the surface: “fish lose their habitat and die or move away because they are unable to survive. Only microorganisms, especially bacteria and archaea, can survive” (Gutiérrez 2012).', '[FIGURE 11.4 OMITTED]', '11.10 Up to 170% More Ocean Acidification by 2100', '“The surface ocean currently absorbs approximately one-third of the excess CO2 injected into the atmosphere from human fossil fuel use and deforestation, which leads to a reduction in pH and wholesale shifts in seawater carbonate chemistry” (Donney et al. 2009). Since 1870 oceans have absorbed 150 Gigatons (Gt) of CO2, and between 2004 and 2013 alone, they absorbed on average 2.6 Gt of this gas per year. Oceans have a huge ability to absorb cumulative impacts. The dynamic of ocean response to acidification is very slow and is not easily detected within the timeframe of scientific experiments. For example, the increase in ocean CO2 concentrations resulting from human activities over the past 50–100 years has so far only reached a depth of 3000 m below the surface. But this absorption increases as CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere increase. This causes chemical changes in the aqueous environment. One of these changes is acidification, that is, a change in ocean pH, or ionic hydrogen potential, which is a measure of hydrogen ion levels (H+) on a scale that indicates the acidity (low pH), neutrality, or alkalinity (high pH) of an environment. A lower pH means that the ocean has become more acidic.', 'Ocean acidification has been called “the other CO2 problem” (Donney et al. 2009) and Carol Turley of Plymouth University’s Marine Laboratory called it its “evil twin.” Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations are causing changes in the ocean’s carbonate chemistry system. The dissolution of CO2 in water produces carbonic acid (H2CO3), and this process of oceanic acidification decreases the concentrations of calcium carbonate, such as calcite (CaCO3), high-magnesium calcite (HMC), and aragonite, which makes it more difficult for a vast group of marine organisms—corals, crustaceans, urchins, mollusks, etc.—to use these minerals to turn them into their shells or exoskeletal structures. The deficit and/or weakening of these protections slows embryo growth, prevents them from fully forming, or makes their calcareous protections less adherent to stone, less dense, more brittle, and more vulnerable to predators and pathogens. The rapidity of ocean acidification has surprised scientists. In 1999, it was predicted that changing ocean chemistry could affect corals in the mid-twenty-first century. Robert H. Byme (2010) showed that pH changes in the northern Pacific reached a depth of 500 m between 1991 and 2006. Extrapolating from laboratory tests, A. Kleypas et al. (2006) predict that:', 'Calcification rates will decrease up to 60% within the 21st century. We know that such extrapolations are oversimplified and do not fully consider other environmental and biological effects (e.g., rising water temperature, biological adaptation); nor do they address effects on organism fitness, community structure, and ecosystem functioning. Any of these factors could increase or decrease the laboratory-based estimates, but it is certain that net production of CaCO3 will decrease in the future.', 'According to Carbon Brief projections (2018), if GHG emissions continue unabated (RCP8.5 W/m2), CO2 atmospheric concentrations will increase to 550 ppm by 2050 and to about 950 ppm by 2100. Richard Feely et al. (2008) state that “this increase [500 ppm by 2050 and 800 ppm by 2100] would result in a decrease in surface-water pH of ~0.4 by the end of the century, and a corresponding 50% decrease in carbonate ion concentration.” According to an assessment conducted in 2013 by a US National Academy of Sciences (NAS) committee on the worsening of acidification:7', 'The rate of release of CO2 is the greatest for at least the past 55 million years. Since the start of the Industrial Revolution in the middle of the 18th century, atmospheric CO2 levels have risen by ~40% and the pH of seawater has decreased by ~0.12 pH units, which corresponds to an approximately 30% rise in acidity. By the end of this century, models based on “business as usual” scenarios for CO2 release predict a further decrease in pH that would lead to an approximately 100–150% rise in ocean acidity relative to the mid-18th century.', 'A report from the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP) presented in 2013 at the 19th United Nations Conference on Climate Change (COP 19) in Warsaw went beyond the estimate of a 100% to 150% increase in ocean acidification, stating that water acidification can increase by up to 170% by 2100, as a result of human activity, leading to the likely disappearance of around 30% of ocean species.', '11.11 Ongoing Effects', 'Ocean acidification is already affecting, for example, the reproductive capacity of oysters grown in the northern Pacific coastal regions. In fact, between 2005 and 2008, the death of millions of oyster larvae on the US Pacific coast was recorded (Welch 2009). According to a study by Nina Bednarsek et al. (2014), acidification is also dismantling the protection of pteropods in California’s sea:', 'We show a strong positive correlation between the proportion of pteropod individuals with severe shell dissolution damage and the percentage of undersaturated water in the top 100 m with respect to aragonite. We found 53% of onshore individuals and 24% of offshore individuals on average to have severe dissolution damage. (…) Relative to pre-industrial CO2 concentrations, the extent of undersaturated waters in the top 100 m of the water column has increased over sixfold along the California Current Ecosystem (CCE). We estimate that the incidence of severe pteropod shell dissolution owing to anthropogenic Oceanic Acidification has doubled in near shore habitats since pre-industrial conditions across this region and is on track to triple by 2050.', 'One of the authors of this study, William Peterson, from the NOAA, stated: “We did not expect to see pteropods being affected to this extent in our coastal region for several decades.”8 Two species of edible bivalve shellfish (Mercenaria mercenaria and Argopecten irradians) were affected by exposure to varying levels of acidity in the aquatic environment, as shown by Stephanie C. Talmage and Christopher J. Gobler (2010):', 'Larvae grown under near preindustrial CO2 concentrations (250 ppm) displayed significantly faster growth and metamorphosis as well as higher survival and lipid accumulation rates compared with individuals reared under modern day CO2 levels. Bivalves grown under near preindustrial CO2 levels displayed thicker, more robust shells than individuals grown at present CO2 concentrations, whereas bivalves exposed to CO2 levels expected later this century had shells that were malformed and eroded. These results suggest that the ocean acidification that has occurred during the past two centuries may be inhibiting the development and survival of larval shellfish and contributing to global declines of some bivalve populations.', 'The decline of these organisms has a chain of repercussions, given their multiple functions in the marine biosphere. Many of them, such as pteropods, are critical to the feeding of other species and to water filtering, making water less toxic to marine organisms. Finally, a lower pH in the blood and cellular fluids of some marine organisms may decrease their ability to capture oxygen, impairing their metabolic and cellular processes. Research is beginning to outline the broad range of these harms to marine life, which include photosynthesis, respiration, nutrient acquisition, behavior, growth, reproduction, and survivability.', '11.12 Corals Die and Jellyfish Proliferate', 'Corals are cnidarian animals that secrete an exoskeleton which is formed of limestone or organic matter. Corals live in colonies considered “superorganisms” which are incomparable repositories of sea life. More than a quarter of all marine species are known to spend part of their lives in coral reefs (Caldeira 2012). Corals are anchors of various marine systems and their disappearance may be lethal to underwater life. Warming waters are the most important causa mortis of corals. Warming causes corals to expel the microscopic algae (zooxanthellae) living in endosymbiosis with them from their tissues. This, in turn, occasions a process called coral bleaching, from which they do not always recover. The extent and frequency of these bleaching phenomena are increasing. Sixty major mass bleaching events occurred between 1979 and 1990 worldwide. In Australia, scientists from AIMS (Australian Institute of Marine Science) have been monitoring mass bleaching events on the Great Barrier Reef since the early 1980s. Mass bleaching events in 1998, 2002, 2006, 2016, 2017 (Vaughan 2019), and most recently 2020 were caused by unusually warm sea surface temperatures during the summer season. On March 26, 2020, David Wachenfeld, Chief Scientist of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, stated in a video posted on its website: “We can confirm that the Great Barrier Reef is experiencing its third mass bleaching event in five years.” Some reefs that did not bleach in 2016 or 2017 are now experiencing moderate or severe bleaching. Normally, mass bleaching events are associated with the El Niño climate phenomenon, but the 2017 and 2020 bleaching episodes took place without one. Terry Hughes (dubbed “Reef Sentinel” by the journal Nature) and co-authors published an article in Science (2018) on a survey of 100 coral reefs in 54 countries; the conclusions could not be more alarming:', 'Tropical reef systems are transitioning to a new era in which the interval between recurrent bouts of coral bleaching is too short for a full recovery of mature assemblages. We analyzed bleaching records at 100 globally distributed reef locations from 1980 to 2016. The median return time between pairs of severe bleaching events has diminished steadily since 1980 and is now only 6 years. (…) As we transition to the Anthropocene, coral bleaching is occurring more frequently in all El Niño–Southern Oscillation phases, increasing the likelihood of annual bleaching in the coming decades.', 'The authors also show that the percentage of bleached corals per year increased from 8% in the 1980s to 31% in 2016. In a subsequent publication, Terry Hughes et al. (2019) show that the reproductive capacities of corals are decreasing after unprecedented back-to-back mass bleaching events caused by global warming: “As a consequence of mass mortality of adult brood stock in 2016 and 2017 owing to heat stress, the amount of larval recruitment declined in 2018 by 89% compared to historical levels.” Pollution also plays an important role in coral decline, as tiny plastic particles found in polyps alter their feeding capacity (Hall et al. 2015). Other causes of coral reef death are acidification of water by increasing CO2 absorption, direct discharge of sewage and domestic and industrial effluents, and the use of dynamite or cyanide to kill fish, which also destroys or poisons reefs. According to the ReefBase: A Global Information System for Coral Reefs (with data from the World Atlas of Coral Reefs from the UNEP-World Conservation Monitoring Center), fishing with dynamite and/or cyanide continues to be practiced, although it has been prohibited since 1985. This is the case, for example, in Indonesia, a nation that, together with Australia, is home to the largest coral reefs in the world.', 'Up to 90% of coral reefs in the seas off the Maldives in the southern Atlantic and off the Seychelles in the Indian Ocean have been killed by global warming. While coral reef systems have existed for over 500 million years, “the Great Barrier Reef is relatively young at 500,000 years of age, with the most recent addition developing only 8,000 years ago” (Esposito 2020). Since 1985, the 2000-km Great Barrier Reef off Australia’s east coast—a crucial reservoir for the survival of 400 coral species, 1500 species of fish, and 4000 species of mollusks—has been destroyed by 50%, falling victim to industrial ports, global warming, ocean acidification, pollution, and, additionally, acanthaster, a starfish whose proliferation is due mainly to the agribusiness sector which dumps increasing quantities of industrial fertilizers in the ocean.', 'An assessment of the Caribbean coral decline between 1970 and 2012, promoted by the IUCN (Jackson, Donovan, Cramer, Lam 2014), states:', 'Caribbean coral reefs have suffered massive losses of corals since the early 1980s due to a wide range of human impacts including explosive human population growth, overfishing, coastal pollution, global warming, and invasive species. The consequences include widespread collapse of coral populations, increases in large seaweeds (macroalgae), outbreaks of coral bleaching and disease, and failure of corals to recover from natural disturbances such as hurricanes. Alarm bells were set off by the 2003 publication in the journal Science that live coral cover had been reduced from more than 50% in the 1970s to just 10% today [2012].', 'Finally, on July 13, 2012, Roger Bradbury, a Specialist on Corals from the Australian National University, wrote an understandably outspoken article in the New York Times:', 'It’s past time to tell the truth about the state of the world’s coral reefs, the nurseries of tropical coastal fish stocks. They have become zombie ecosystems, neither dead nor truly alive in any functional sense, and on a trajectory to collapse within a human generation. There will be remnants here and there, but the global coral reef ecosystem—with its storehouse of biodiversity and fisheries supporting millions of the world’s poor—will cease to be. Overfishing, ocean acidification and pollution are pushing coral reefs into oblivion. Each of those forces alone is fully capable of causing the global collapse of coral reefs; together, they assure it. The scientific evidence for this is compelling and unequivocal, but there seems to be a collective reluctance to accept the logical conclusion—that there is no hope of saving the global coral reef ecosystem. (…) Coral reefs will be the first, but certainly not the last, major ecosystem to succumb to the Anthropocene—the new geological epoch now emerging.', '11.13 Jellyfish', 'While corals die, jellyfish thrive. In 2010, scientists at the University of British Columbia established that global warming was causing a proliferation and an earlier yearly appearance of numerous species of jellyfish (McVeigh 2011). Once kept in balance by the self-regulating mechanisms of ecosystems, the jellyfish belonging to the subphylum Medusozoa of the phylum Cnidaria, which dates back half a billion years, now proliferate wildly in the oceans, benefiting from (1) warming waters; (2) their transportation to all ports of the world in the ballasts of ships; (3) the multiplication of hard surfaces at sea—piers, boat hulls, oil rigs, and garbage—all ideal nurseries for their eggs; (4) the decline of predatory species, such as sharks, tuna, and turtles (that die by eating pieces of plastic, thinking they are jellyfish); (5) the extinction of competing species caused by overfishing, pollution, fertilizers, and habitat destruction; and (6) lower concentrations of diluted oxygen in the sea. Jellyfish devour huge amounts of plankton, depriving small fish of food, impacting the entire food chain. Tim Flannery (2013) illustrates well the behavior of one jellyfish species:', 'Mnemiopsis acts like a fox in a henhouse. After they gorge themselves, they continue to collect and kill prey. As far as the ecosystem goes, the result is the same whether the jellyfish digest the food or not: they go on killing until there is nothing left. That can happen quickly.', 'By seizing niches deserted by locally extinct species or declining populations, jellyfish complete the work of man. Moreover, they exterminate the eggs and larvae of other species. They have also proved to be creatures that have enormous adaptive advantages to the ocean’s new environmental conditions, characterized by waters that are more polluted, warmer, more acidic, and less oxygenated, since their metabolism is exceptionally efficient. Lisa-ann Gershwin (2013), Director of the Australian Marine Stinger Advisory Services, issues a terrible warning:', 'We are creating a world more like the late Precambrian than the late 1800—a world where jellyfish ruled the seas and organisms with shells didn’t exist. We are creating a world where we humans may be soon unable to survive, or want to.', '11.14 Plastic Kills and Travels Through the Food Web', 'Globally, it is estimated that over 100 million marine animals are killed each year by plastic waste. Plastic damages habitats, entangles wildlife, and causes injury via ingestion. Sarah Gall and Richard Thompson (2015) reviewed and updated the current knowledge on the effects of plastic marine debris on marine organisms:', 'A total of 340 original publications were identified documenting encounters between marine debris and marine organisms. These [publications] reported encounters for a total of 693 species. 76.5% of all reports listed plastic amongst the debris types encountered by organisms making it the most commonly reported debris type. 92% of all encounters between individual organisms and debris were with plastic.', 'According to the IUCN, marine plastic pollution has affected at least 267 species and at least 17% of species affected by entanglement and ingestion were listed as threatened or near threatened. Moreover, leachate from plastics has been shown to cause acute toxicity in some species of phytoplankton, such as the fresh species Daphnia magna and Nitocra spinipes (Bejgarn et al. 2015). It is now a well-established fact that, along with overfishing, ocean warming, acidification, eutrophication, and pollution caused by aquaculture, marine plastic pollution, predicted to increase by an order of magnitude by 2025 (Jambeck et al. 2015), is among the relevant factors responsible for the current annihilation of marine life. Let us return for a moment to this problem, already covered in Chap. 4 (Sect. 4.9 Plastic in the Oceans), to examine its impact on biodiversity in the oceans. The French Research Institute for Exploration of the Sea (IFREMER) estimates that there are 150 million pieces of macrowaste (macrodéchets) in the bottom of the North Sea and more than 175 million of them in the northwest Mediterranean basin, with a total of about 750 million floating in the Mediterranean Sea as a whole (Rescan and Valo 2014). Like oil, its raw material, plastic floats, at least in most of its forms. As Andrés Cózar et al. (2014) claim:', 'Exposure of plastic objects on the surface waters to solar radiation results in their photodegradation, embrittlement, and fragmentation by wave action. (…) Persistent nano-scale particles may be generated during the weathering of plastic debris, although their abundance has not been quantified in ocean waters.', 'Each of these particles in this plastic soup retains its chemical characteristics and toxicity. Mammals, fish, birds, and mollusks cannot digest these fragments or particles, which they involuntarily ingest or confuse with plankton, jellyfish, or other food sources. A study published in the Bulletin of Marine Pollution (Lusher et al. 2012) detected the presence of microplastics in the gastrointestinal tract of 36.5% of the 504 fish examined from ten different species in the English Channel. The fish were collected at a distance of 10 km from Plymouth and at a depth of 55 m. Alina Wieczorek et al. (2018) studied the presence of plastics in Mesopelagic fishes from the Northwest Atlantic. The results are even more alarming: “Overall 73% of fish contained plastics in their stomachs with Gonostoma denudatum having the highest frequency of occurrence (100%), followed by Serrivomer beanii (93%) and Lampanyctus macdonaldi (75%).” The ingestion of plastic by fish and other marine organisms may cause asphyxiation, blockage of the digestive tract, perforation of the intestines, loss of nutrition, or a false sense of satiety. Philipp Schwabl et al. (2018) explain that:', 'Microplastic may harm via bioaccumulation (especially when the intestinal barrier is damaged) and can serve as a vector for toxic chemicals or pathogens. Moreover, ingested plastic may affect intestinal villi, nutritional uptake and can induce hepatic stress.', 'Microplastics (between 5 mm and < 1 μm in size) are now more numerous than larger fragments. They are infiltrating ecosystems and transferring their toxic components to tissues, as well as to the tiny organisms that ingest them. Mark Anthony Browne et al. (2013) showed the impacts of these components on lugworms (Arenicola marina), a marine species of the phylum Annelida, exposed to sand containing a 5% concentration of microplastics presorbed with pollutants (nonylphenol and phenanthrene) and additive chemicals (Triclosan and PBDE-47). The authors warn, more generally, that “as global microplastic contamination accelerates, our findings indicate that large concentrations of microplastic and additives can harm ecophysiological functions performed by organisms.” Stephanie Wright et al. (2012) also underline that there are many other species at risk, as their eating behavior is similar to that of A. marina, and conclude that “high concentrations of microplastics could induce suppressed feeding activity, prolonged gut residence times, inflammation and reduced energy reserves, impacting on growth, reproduction and ultimately survival.” Microplastics can ultimately carry bacteria and algae to other regions of the ocean, causing invasions of species and imbalances with unknown consequences to marine ecosystems.', 'Since plastic travels the food chain and has become ubiquitous in contemporary societies, it is not surprising that its components are now in human stool, as first detected by Philipp Schwabl et al. (2018). In a pilot study, they identified the presence of 11 types of plastic in human stools: polypropylene (PP), polyurethane, polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, polyethylene terephthalate (PET), polyamide (nylon), polycarbonate, polymethylmethacrylate (acrylic), polyoxymethylene (acetal), and melamine formaldehyde. PP and PET were detected in 100% of the samples. From this pilot study, the authors conclude that “more than 50% of the world population might have microplastics in their stool.” For the authors, the two main sources of plastic ingestion are (1) ingestion of seafood correlated with microplastics content and (2) food contact materials (packaging and processing).', '11.15 Ocean Warming, Die-Offs, and Decline of Phytoplankton', 'More than 90% of the warming that has happened on Earth over the past 50 years has occurred in the ocean (Dahlman and Lindsey 2018). As seen in Chap. 7 (item 7.3 between 1.1 °C and 1.5 °C and accelerating, Fig. 7.6), compared to the 1880–1920 period, global ocean warming reached 1 °C in 2016 and 0.8 °C in 2018. The linear trend of Ocean Heat Content (OHC) at a depth of 0–700 m during 1992–2015 shows a warming trend four times stronger than the 1960–1991 period (Cheng et al. 2017). The staggering scale of ocean warming and the more frequent and intense marine heatwaves already have devastating consequences on ecosystems. For example, this warming is driving shoals away from the equator at a rate of about 50 km per decade. Thus, human populations in tropical countries, whose diet is particularly dependent on fish, will be the most quickly affected. As Daniel Pauly (Davidson 2017) states:', 'In temperate areas you will have the fish coming from a warmer area, and another one leaving. You’ll have a lot of transformation but they will actually—at least in terms of fishery— adapt. In the tropics you don’t have the replacement, you have only fish leaving.', 'But the problem also presents itself for fish in high latitudes, for which there are no colder places to go. In general, ocean warming is predicted to affect marine species through physiological stress, making them more susceptible to diseases. Ocean warming has also caused mass die-offs of fish and other marine species. Blobs of warm water are killing clams in the South Atlantic (Mooney and Muyskens 2019). Since 2013, a sea star wasting disease, tied to ocean warming, has affected more than 20 sea star species from Mexico to Alaska (Wagner 2014; Harvell et al. 2019; Herscher 2019). About 62,000 dead or dying common murres (Uria aalge) washed ashore between summer 2015 and spring 2016 on beaches from California to Alaska. John Piatt et al. (2020) estimate that total mortality approached 1 million of these sea birds. According to the authors, these events were ultimately caused by the most powerful marine heatwave on record that persisted through 2014–2016 and created an enormous volume of ocean water (the “Blob”) from California to Alaska with temperatures that exceeded average by 2–3 standard deviations. Overall, die-offs or mass mortality events (MMEs) are becoming increasingly common among species of fish and marine invertebrates over the last 70 years, although it remains unclear whether the increase in the occurrence of MMEs represents a true pattern or simply a perceived increase (Fey et al. 2015).', 'In addition, rising sea levels lead to the progressive decline of beaches, endangering the species that live on or depend on them to reproduce. According to Shaye Wolf of the Center for Biological Diversity in San Francisco, the loss of beaches threatens 233 species protected by the Endangered Species Act (ESA) in the USA. These include the large loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta), which lays its eggs on Florida’s beaches, and the Hawaiian monk seal (Neomonachus schauin- slandi) (Schneider 2015). The same fate is reserved for five turtle species that lay eggs on Brazilian beaches, two of which are endangered and all of which are considered vulnerable by the IUCN.', 'We saw in the preceding section that plastic pollution is poisoning some species of phytoplankton, such as Daphnia magna and Nitocra spinipes. But warming waters, along with other factors, also threaten phytoplankton. Daniel Boyce, Marlon Lewis, and Boris Worm (2010) were the first to warn of a long-term downward trend in phytoplankton, a decline that is now occurring at alarming rates:', 'We observe declines in eight out of ten ocean regions, and estimate a global rate of decline of approximately 1% of the global median per year. Our analyses further reveal interannual to decadal phytoplankton fluctuations superimposed on long-term trends. These fluctuations are strongly correlated with basin-scale climate indices, whereas long-term declining trends are related to increasing sea surface temperatures. We conclude that global phytoplankton concentration has declined over the past century.', 'The decline in phytoplankton observed by the authors is so threatening to life on the planet that this finding gave rise to intense discussion, summarized by David Cohen (2010). According to Kevin Friedland from NOAA, new measurements taken in 2013 confirm the lowest ever recorded levels of these organisms in the North Atlantic (Fischetti 2013; Spross 2013). Looking at satellite data collected between 1997 and 2009, a study coordinated by Mati Kahru (2011) links Arctic warming and melting to the hastening of phytoplankton’s maximum spring bloom by up to 50 days in 11% of the Arctic ocean’s area. This puts the phytoplankton out of sync with the reproductive cycles of various marine mammals that feed on it. In addition, a study published by Alexandra Lewandowska et al. (2014) reaffirms the phenomenon of phytoplankton decline:', 'Recently, there has been growing evidence that global phytoplankton biomass and productivity are changing over time. Despite increasing trends in some regions, most observations and physical models suggest that at large scales, average phytoplankton biomass and productivity are declining, a trend which is predicted to continue over the coming century. While the exact magnitude of past and possible future phytoplankton declines is uncertain, there is broad agreement across these studies that marine phytoplankton biomass declines constitute a major component of global change in the oceans. Multiple lines of evidence suggest that changes in phytoplankton biomass and productivity are related to ocean warming.', 'In September 2015, Cecile S. Rousseaux and Watson W. Gregg published an analysis from data obtained through NASA’s satellite observations. The authors confirm the decrease in diatoms, the largest and most common form of phytoplankton: “We assessed the trends in phytoplankton composition (diatoms, cyanobacteria, coccolithophores and chlorophytes) at a 16 global scale for the period 1998–2012. (…) We found a significant global decline in diatoms (−1.22% y−1).” If this decline persists, it could be one of the most destructive factors, reducing biodiversity to levels never faced by our species, levels that could produce what we call, in the next chapter, hypobiosphere.', '[REFERENCES OMITTED]', '[CHAPTER 12 BEGINS]', 'The Anthropocene Working Group of the Subcommission on Quaternary Stratigraphy defines the Anthropocene as1:', '[…] the present geological time interval, in which many conditions and processes on Earth are profoundly altered by human impact. This impact has intensified significantly since the onset of industrialization, taking us out of the Earth System state typical of the Holocene Epoch that post-dates the last glaciation. (…) Phenomena associated with the Anthropocene include: an order-of-magnitude increase in erosion and sediment transport associated with urbanization and agriculture; marked and abrupt anthropogenic perturbations of the cycles of elements such as carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus and various metals together with new chemical compounds; environmental changes generated by these perturbations, including global warming, sea-level rise, ocean acidification and spreading oceanic ‘dead zones’; rapid changes in the biosphere both on land and in the sea, as a result of habitat loss, predation, explosion of domestic animal populations and species invasions; and the proliferation and global dispersion of many new ‘minerals’ and ‘rocks’ including concrete, fly ash and plastics, and the myriad ‘technofossils’ produced from these and other materials.', 'James Syvitski (2012) rightly observed that “the concept of the Anthropocene has manifested itself in the scientific literature for over a century under various guises.” In fact, the underlying idea that man’s actions shape the Earth system more decisively than non-anthropic forces is more than two centuries old. It dates back to the late eighteenth century, a time of lively reflection on the relationship between man and nature. Its history must be remembered here with its essential milestones; otherwise, we run the risk of not understanding the intellectual foundation of the concept of the Anthropocene. This concept culminates in one of the richest chapters in the history of ideas of the contemporary age (Lorius and Carpentier 2010; Bonneuil and Fressoz 2013) and, at the same time, in the most crucially decisive chapter of human experience on this planet.', 'In 1780, in his book, Époques de la nature and, more precisely, in the seventh and last part of the book titled Lorsque la puissance de l’homme a fécondé celle de la Nature (II, 184–186), Buffon notes that “the whole face of the Earth today bears the mark of man’s power.” But in claiming the superiority of a nature “fertilized” by man over a “brute” nature, he still understands human omnipresence as a benevolent force:', 'It is only about thirty centuries ago that man’s power merged with that of nature and extended over most of the Earth; the treasures of its fertility, hitherto hidden, were revealed by man. (...) Finally, the whole face of the Earth today bears the mark of man’s power, which, although subordinate to that of nature, has often done more than she did, or has, at least, made her wonderfully fruitful, for it is with the help of our hands that nature has developed in all its extension (…) Compare brute nature with cultivated nature (…).', 'This idea of the superiority of cultivated nature over brute nature rests on a philosophical tradition that was well described a century before Buffon in the conclusion of Leibniz’s De rerum originatione radicali (On the Ultimate Origination of Things, 1697, paragraph 16), where one reads:', 'It must be recognized that there is a perpetual and most free progress of the whole universe towards a consummation of the universal beauty and perfection of the works of God, so that it is always advancing towards greater cultivation. Just as now a large part of our earth has received cultivation, and will receive it more and more.', 'But already in the end of the eighteenth century and early nineteenth century, diagnoses quite different from those of Leibniz and Buffon, especially on man’s disastrous impact on forests, were beginning to emerge from the pen of naturalists, such as Lamarck (1820), José Bonifácio de Andrada e Silva (Padua 2002), Alexander von Humboldt, Dietrich Brandis, and George Perkins Marsh, as well as Gifford Pinchot in the early twentieth century. Due to the immense breadth of his intellectual capacity, Humboldt is perhaps the most appropriate starting point for a prehistory of the Anthropocene, at least in the realm of modern science. As Andrea Wulf (2015) clearly points out, he seems to have been the first to scientifically conceive of the Earth as a “natural whole” animated by inward forces to the point that he had thought (more than a century before James Lovelock) to give the title Gäa to the volumes that he would eventually title Cosmos. Of even greater importance to the Anthropocene issue, Humboldt was, along with Lamarck, the first to realize that human activity had a decisive impact on ecosystems. From his analysis of the devastation of forests by colonial plantations at Lake Valencia in Venezuela in 1800 (Personal Narrative 1814–1829, vol. IV, p. 140), “Humboldt became the first scientist to talk about harmful human-induced climate change” (Wulf 2015). As Wulf also states, “he warned that humans were meddling with the climate and that this could have an unforeseeable impact on future generations.”', 'A brief historical retrospect of the ideas that underlie the Anthropocene concept since the nineteenth century was proposed by Steffen et al. (2011). The authors’ starting point is neither Lamarck nor Humboldt, but Marsh who was, in fact, among the first to realize that human action on the planet had become a threat to life. Hence, in The Earth as Modified by Human Action (1868/1874), a largely rewritten version of Man and Nature: Or, Physical Geography as Modified by Human Action (1864), he had a goal that was diametrically opposed to Buffon’s défense et illustration of human power over nature. Starting from the preface to the first edition, Marsh spells out his concerns:', 'The object of the present volume is: to indicate the character and, approximately, the extent of the changes produced by human action in the physical conditions of the globe we inhabit; to point out the dangers of imprudence and the necessity of caution in all operations which, on a large scale, interfere with the spontaneous arrangements of the organic or the inorganic world; to suggest the possibility and the importance of the restoration of disturbed harmonies and the material improvement of waste and exhausted regions; and, incidentally, to illustrate the doctrine that man is, in both kind and degree, a power of a higher order than any of the other forms of animated life, which, like him, are nourished at the table of bounteous nature.', 'In the same period, that is, between 1871 and 1873, abbot Antonio Stoppani (1824–1891) coined the term Anthropozoic; although not devoid of religious connotations, it clearly referred to human interference in the geological structures of the planet:', 'It is in this sense, precisely, that I do not hesitate in proclaiming the Anthropozoic era. The creation of man constitutes the introduction into nature of a new element with a strength by no means known to ancient worlds. And, mind this, that I am talking about physical worlds, since geology is the history of the planet and not, indeed, of intellect and morality. (…) This creature, absolutely new in itself, is, to the physical world, a new element, a new telluric force that for its strength and universality does not pale in the face of the greatest forces of the globe.', 'In 1896, Svante Arrhenius (1859–1927) first confronted the difficult question of the doubling of CO2, calculating by how much a given change in the atmospheric concentrations of gases that trap infrared radiation would alter the planet’s average temperature. He states, for example, that a 40% increase or decrease in the atmospheric abundance of the trace gas CO2 might trigger the glacial advances and retreats, an estimate similar to that of the IPCC (Le Treut and Somerville 2007 IPCC AR4). He also stated that “the temperature of the Arctic regions would rise about 8 °C or 9 °C, if the [atmospheric concentrations of] CO2 increased 2.5 to 3 times its present value.” This estimate is also probably not far from the truth, given the phenomenon known as Arctic amplification, briefly discussed in Chaps. 7 and 8. In 1917, Alexander Graham Bell finally coins the term “greenhouse effect” to describe the impact of CO2 concentrations on planetary temperatures. In the early 1920s, Vladimir I. Vernadsky (1926) introduced the idea that just as the biosphere had transformed the geosphere, the emergence of human knowledge (which Teilhard de Chardin (1923) and Édouard Le Roy would name noosphere) was transforming the biosphere (Clark et al. 2005).', 'These pioneering scientific contributions, from 1860 to 1920, go hand in hand (especially in England and the USA) with the first philosophical and moral reactions to industrialization and urbanization by artists and intellectuals such as John Ruskin, George Bernard Shaw (Dukore 2014), Henry Thoreau, and John Muir.2 They also go hand in hand with the first legal initiatives and environmental organizations, such as the Sea Birds Preservation Act (1869), considered the first conservationist law in England, the Plumage League (1889) in defense of birds and their habitats, the Coal Smoke Abatement Society (1898), the Sierra Club (1892), the Rainforest Action Network (1895), the Ecological Society of America (1915), the Committee for the Preservation of Natural Conditions (1917), and the Save the Redwoods League (1918), which were mobilized especially to safeguard sequoias.', 'The environmental awareness strongly emerging in this period will wane with Europe sinking into World War I and with the extreme political tensions that would lead to World War II. The idea that man’s power could be equated to the forces of nature takes on—with the carnage of World War I—the characteristics that Freud had attributed to it: humans could, thenceforth, use their growing technological control over these forces of nature to give free rein to their inherent aggressive drives,3 which now threaten to destroy us. In 1930, in the conclusion of his Civilization and Its Discontents, Freud expresses this fear:', 'The fateful question for the human species seems to me to be whether and to what extent their cultural development will succeed in mastering the disturbance of their communal life by the human instinct of aggression and self-destruction. It may be that in this respect precisely the present time deserves a special interest. Men have gained control over the forces of nature to such an extent that with their help they would have no difficulty in exterminating one another to the last man. They know this, and hence comes a large part of their current unrest, their unhappiness and their mood of anxiety.', '12.1 Cold War, the Atomic Age, and the Industrial and Agrochemical Machine', 'After World War II, industrial capitalism reaches its Golden Age (1945–1973). In France, this period is called Les Trente Glorieuses (The Glorious Thirty): the “economic miracles” of Germany, Italy, and Japan take place, the USA achieves complete economic hegemony, the socialist bloc under Soviet leadership maintains an equally strong economic performance, and economic growth rates remain generally very high, even in some countries with late and incipient industrialization. But this widespread rush of economic activity is precisely what produces its inevitable counterpart: the first major pollution crises. The tension between economic benefits and environmental harms—of a civilization model based on the accumulation of surplus and capital—gradually becomes inevitable. The perception of an environmental threat begins to rival the threat of total destruction by war that was forecast by Freud well before Hiroshima, as seen.', 'In 1973, at the end of his life, Arnold Toynbee would attempt, in Mankind and Mother Earth (1976, posthumous), a new synthesis of the history of civilization: new because he would now symptomatically place it under the man–biosphere antinomy. Indeed, the British historian’s approach is not distant from the Freudian analysis of humanity’s (self)destructive drives. It only emphasizes, half a century after Freud, the environmental consequences of this destructiveness, anticipating the prospect of an uninhabitable Earth which is later taken up in David Wallace-Wells’ famous article and book (2017, 2019):', 'Mankind’s material power has now increased to a degree at which it could make the biosphere uninhabitable and will, in fact, produce this suicidal result within a foreseeable period of time if the human population of the globe does not now take prompt and vigorous concerted action to check the pollution and the spoliation that are being inflicted on the biosphere by short-sighted human greed.', 'Between Freud’s late work (1930) and Toynbee’s posthumous (1976) one, the great expansion of capitalism had unleashed, alongside the big Cold War crises, immense impacts on nature, which were beginning to generate counter-impacts. The impacts of World War II and then the Cold War on the degradation of the biosphere were considerable. Jan and Mat Zalasiewicz (2015) provide some examples of this:', 'After both world wars, the exhausted armies were left with millions of unused bombs, including chemical weapons. There was neither the time nor the resources to make them safe; most were simply shipped out to sea and thrown overboard. There are over a hundred known weapons dumps in the seas around north-west Europe alone. (…) Even larger dumping grounds were improvised elsewhere in the world. (…) Around a trillion [bullets] have been fired since the beginning of the second world war—that’s a couple of thousand for every square kilometre of Earth’s surface, both land and sea.', 'According to the same authors, between 1965 and 1971, Vietnam, a country smaller than Germany, was bombarded with twice as much high explosives as the US forces used during the entire World War II: “The region was pulverized by some 26 million explosions, with the green Mekong delta turning into ‘grey porridge,’ as one soldier put it.” Vietnam and other Southeast Asian countries are undoubtedly among the main victims of the Cold War. But its most systemic victim was the biosphere, obviously including humanity as a whole, primarily as a result of the arms race. Between 1945 and 2013, there were 2421 atomic tests of which over 500 occurred in the atmosphere in the 1950s and 1960s (Jamieson 2014).4 In the 1950s, scientists began warning of their impacts. Hence, after October 10, 1963, atomic tests generally happened underground, as established by the Treaty Banning Nuclear Weapon Tests in the Atmosphere, in Outer Space, and Under Water, which entered into force on that day. Nevertheless, France and China continued to carry out nuclear tests in the atmosphere until 1974 (France) and 1980 (China).', 'The full assessment of the effects of these tests on life on the planet will only be achieved by future generations. Among its most feared and delayed effects is the impact of 30 tons of plutonium-239 waste with a half-life of 24,000 years, abandoned by the Americans on the Pacific Islands. No less than “67 nuclear and atmospheric bombs were detonated on Enewetak and Bikini between 1946 and 1958—an explosive yield equivalent to 1.6 Hiroshima bombs detonated every day over the course of 12 years,” writes Jose et al. (2015). With rising sea levels, this radioactive waste, stored since 1979 in the Marshall Islands in a concrete dome called Runit Dome, will be submerged, likely causing it to leak into the ocean. In fact, as these three authors warn, “underground, radioactive waste has already started to leach out of the crater: according to a 2013 report by the US Department of Energy, soil around the dome is already more contaminated than its contents.” In this regard, they quote Michael Gerrard, Director of the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law at Columbia University, who visited the dome in 2010:', 'Runit Dome represents a tragic confluence of nuclear testing and climate change. It resulted from US nuclear testing and the leaving behind of large quantities of plutonium. Now it has been gradually submerged as result of sea level rise from greenhouse gas emissions by industrial countries led by the United States.', 'In short, if there are many historical reasons for the birth of the term Anthropocene, the main one is the fact that the geological strata and the Earth system in general have been profoundly shaped—and will be even more so in the twenty-first century— by numerous consequences of the world wars that ravaged the twentieth century. These range from the atomic weapon and the various regional wars of the Cold War to the scorched-earth war against the biosphere, driven by the deadliest of weapons: the fossil fuel and agrochemical machine of globalized capitalism.', '12.2 Anthropization: A Large-Scale Geophysical Experiment', 'In 1939, in an article titled “The Composition of the Atmosphere through the Ages,” Guy Stewart Callendar bore witness to the emerging awareness of the anthropogenic character of climate change. As James Fleming (2007) notes, the article “contains an early statement of the now-familiar claim that humanity has become an agent of global change.” Although they date back 80 years, Callendar’s words would be quite appropriate for a text from 2020 on the Anthropocene:', 'It is a commonplace that man is able to speed up the processes of Nature, and he has now plunged heavily into her slow-moving carbon dioxide into the air each minute. This great stream of gas results from the combustion of fossil carbon (coal, oil, peat, etc.), and it appears to be much greater than the natural rate of fixation.', 'Callendar’s article later gave rise to the term Callendar effect, which refers to the perception of the direct and well-quantified correlation between anthropogenic GHG emissions and structural changes in the planet’s climate. But Arrhenius and Callendar still thought that this planetary warming would be beneficial, delaying a “return of the deadly glaciers.” In addition, this article came out on the eve of the war, and its wording naturally went unnoticed in the face of much more immediate and tangible dangers. War, killing on an industrial scale, the so-called trivialization of evil on a scale never before imagined by man, concentration camps, and Hiroshima submerged everything. In the 1950s, two articles by Gilbert Plass (1956, 1959) brought up the problem of global warming once more. Curiously, the impact of CO2 atmospheric concentrations on the climate was still considered no more than a scientific “theory.” In fact, one of Plass’ papers (1956) was titled “The Carbon Dioxide Theory of Climatic Change.” Plass calculated in this article that “the average surface temperature of the earth increases 3.6°C if the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is doubled.” In any case, the relationship between the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and the rise of the Earth’s surface temperature began to be seen in a different light (see also Chap. 8). In the 1950s, the perception of man’s potentially dangerous interference in the climate merges with a new awareness of widespread pollution, destruction of nature, and the ills of industrial society. Many environmental disasters mobilize people’s awareness in England and in the USA. These disasters include the Great Smog of London, the Cuyahoga River Fire in Ohio (both in 1952), the return to deforestation caused by the US housing boom, projects to flood and build dams in the Grand Canyon (1963), and the explosion of a Union Oil platform off California’s coast in 1969 (polluting its sea and beaches with 16 million liters of oil, the largest event of its kind at that time). Climate change also seems to take public perception by storm. In 1953, the famous magazines, Popular Mechanics and Time, make room for this topic. In a Time article titled “The invisible blanket,” Gilbert Plass predicts that:', 'At its present rate of increase, the CO2 in the atmosphere will raise the earth’s average temperature 1.5° Fahrenheit [0.9°C] each 100 years (...) For centuries to come, if man’s industrial growth continues, the earth’s climate will continue to grow warmer.', 'In 1957, Roger Revelle and Hans Suess conclude an article on the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations with a paragraph that has become, perhaps, the best known hallmark in the contemporary history of global warming science:', 'Thus human beings are now carrying out a large scale geophysical experiment of a kind that could not have happened in the past nor be reproduced in the future. Within a few centuries we are returning to the atmosphere and oceans the concentrated organic carbon stored in sedimentary rocks over hundreds of millions of years.', 'The following year, in 1958, an educational film called The Unchained Goddess, produced by Frank Capra, the great Italian-American Filmmaker who was also a Chemical Engineer, predicts that atmospheric warming and glacial melting, both caused by human activity, would be calamitous:', 'Due to our release through factories and automobiles every year of more than six billion tons of carbon dioxide, our atmosphere seems to be getting warmer. (…) A few degrees rise in the Earth’s temperature would melt the polar ice caps. And if this happens, an inland sea would fill a good portion of the Mississippi valley.', 'This rising awareness of the harmful effects of pollution and GHG emissions is reflected in the establishment (between 1947 and 1971) of the eight most influential US environmental NGOs: Defenders of Wildlife (1947), The Nature Conservancy (1950), WWF (1961), Environmental Defense Fund (1967), Friends of the Earth (1969), International Fund for Animal Welfare (IFAW) (1969), Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) (1970), and Greenpeace (1971) (Hunter 2002). Another reflection of this awakening is the publication of Silent Spring by Rachel Carson (1907–1964) in 1962, a book that is, as we know, a major milestone in the history of environmental awareness. Linda Lear, her biographer, recalls the context in which the book appears5:', 'Silent Spring contained the kernel of social revolution. Carson wrote at a time of new affluence and intense social conformity. The cold war, with its climate of suspicion and intolerance, was at its zenith. The chemical industry, one of the chief beneficiaries of postwar technology, was also one of the chief authors of the nation’s prosperity. DDT enabled the conquest of insect pests in agriculture and of insect-borne disease just as surely as the atomic bomb destroyed America’s military enemies and dramatically altered the balance of power between humans and nature.', 'Silent Spring, in fact, has the impact of “another” bomb, this time affecting American and even global consciousness. It is the first book on environmental science to be discussed at a press conference by President John F. Kennedy and to remain on the bestseller list for a long time. It is not surprising, thus, that the establishment of the Clean Air Act, a federal air pollution monitoring and control program, happened in 1963. Between 1962 and 1966, the book was translated (in chronological order) into German, French, Swedish, Danish, Dutch, Finnish, Italian, Spanish, Portuguese, Japanese, Icelandic, and Norwegian. It was later translated into Chinese (1979), Thai (1982), Korean (1995), and Turkish (2004). By warning of the death of birds and other animals caused by the pesticide DDT, Carson emphasized—in the very same year as the Cuban missile crisis—that the risks of human annihilation no longer stemmed only from a nuclear winter, but also from a silent spring. More than nuclear war, one should, henceforth, fear the less noisy, but no less destructive, war against nature. This is because (notwithstanding the fear expressed by Freud in 1930, 15 years before the atomic bomb) a nuclear winter could be avoided, but not a spring without birds—an allusion to a dead nature—if man did not learn to contain his (self)destructiveness in relation to nature.', 'In retrospect, it is becoming clearer that the 1960s can conveniently be called the Rachel Carson decade. At the end of the decade, René Dubos, a French Biologist naturalized in the USA, launches another book that is emblematic of those years, So Human an Animal. It begins with a statement that reflects the indignation felt in that decade:', 'This book should have been written with anger. I should be expressing in the strongest possible terms my anguish at seeing so many human and natural values spoiled or destroyed in affluent societies, as well as my indignation at the failure of the scientific community to organize a systematic effort against the desecration of life and nature. (…) The most hopeful sign for the future is the attempt by the rebellious to reject our social values. (…) As long as there are rebels in our midst, there is reason to hope that our societies can be saved.', 'Perhaps influenced by Carson and Dubos, and certainly under the impact of the Vietnam War and the 1968 annus mirabilis, the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) was launched at MIT. Its inaugural document was initially signed by 50 senior scientists, including the heads of the biology, chemistry, and physics departments, and then endorsed by other scientists from this renowned center of scientific activity in the USA. The document redefines the meaning of scientific activity. It is no longer just about seeking to broaden knowledge on nature; it is about understanding science now as a critical activity. It proposes, thenceforth, “to devise means for turning research applications away from the present emphasis on military technology toward the solution of pressing environmental and social problems.”6', '12.2.1 “The Masters of the Apocalypse”', 'Although it occurred simultaneously on both sides of the northern Atlantic, the awareness of human arrogance and human impact on the environment had less momentum in continental Europe. As Hicham-Stéphane Afeissa (2009) points out, it is not coincidental that, until recently, European research on environmental issues seemed to suffer from a significant deficit in relation to the USA. But in addition to having less momentum, the awakening of an environmental consciousness in Europe had different characteristics. Contrary to the US autistic complex of being the embodiment of good, twentieth-century Europe gasped under the weight of bad conscience: the self-destruction caused by the two wars; the unconditional political, economic, and ideological capitulation to the USA; the atrocities of colonization and decolonization; and genocides. Moreover, it was the main zone of friction between the spheres of influence of the so-called superpowers (and, thus, the most plausible scenario of a nuclear hecatomb in the event of a cold war slippage), making European public opinion and intelligentsia more sensitive to Hiroshima than to environmental disasters. Therefore, reflection on the ecological question in the Old World emerges slowly from a meditation on the retreat of thought in the post-genocide era and the new precariousness of the human condition in the nuclear age. No one better than Michel Serres (Éclaircissements 1992) expresses the advent of this seismic tremor in the consciousness of European scientists and philosophers: “Since the atomic bomb, it had become urgent to rethink scientific optimism. I ask my readers to hear the explosion of this problem in every page of my books. Hiroshima remains the sole object of my philosophy.” In fact, the famous sentence from the Bhagavad-Gita, “Now I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds,” muttered by J. Robert Oppenheimer on July 16, 1945, in the face of the explosion of “his” bomb in the Los Alamos desert echoed paradoxically more in Europe than in the USA: in the writings of Bertrand Russell, Einstein, Karl Jaspers, Friedrich Dürrenmatt (in his grim comedy, Die Physiker, 1962), and, especially, Günther Anders, whose later work is strongly devoted to reflecting on the atomic bomb. In “The Bomb and the Roots of Our Blindness toward the Apocalypse” (essay published in The Obsolescence of Humankind 1956), Günther Anders spells out the essence of man’s “existential situation” (to put it in the language of that time):', 'If something in the consciousness of men today has the value of Absolute or Infinity, it is no longer the power of God or the power of nature, not even the alleged powers of morality or culture: it is our own power. Creation ex nihilo, once a manifestation of omnipotence, has been replaced by the opposite power: the power to annihilate, to reduce to nothing—and that power is in our hands. We really have gained the omnipotence that we had been yearning for so long, with Promethean spirit, albeit in a different form to what we hoped for. Given that we possess the strength to prepare each other’s end, we are the masters of the Apocalypse. We are infinity.', '12.2.2 From the Nuclear to the Ecological', 'Today, this paragraph refers not only to the nearly 23 thousand nuclear warheads in the hands of 8 countries, an arsenal of destructive power 200 thousand times larger than the bomb dropped in Hiroshima (Sidel and Levy 2014),7 but to the continuous and increasing destructive action of man over ecosystems in the Anthropocene. It could appear as an epigraph in the Red List of Threatened Species first published in 1963 by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), an institution born in Europe immediately after the war.', 'The transition from nuclear to ecological does not mean, however, just a change in subject or a broadening of its scope. Unlike a nuclear catastrophe, the ecological threat does not become a catastrophe because of a war event or a hamartia, a tragic flaw, but due to a (relatively) peaceful economic process, generally regarded (even today) as beneficial and even essential; one in which the shifts in phases toward collapse were still, in those years, almost imperceptible in their overall configuration. This difference between nuclear and ecological catastrophes was highlighted by Hans Jonas in 1979 in The Imperative of Responsibility and described precisely in a preface to the English edition of this work (1984):', 'Lately, the other side of the triumphal advance [of modern technology] has begun to show its face, disturbing the euphoria of success with threats that are as novel as its welcomed fruits. Not counting the insanity of a sudden, suicidal atomic holocaust, which sane fear can avoid with relative ease, it is the slow, long-term, cumulative—the peaceful and constructive use of worldwide technological power, a use in which all of us collaborate as captive beneficiaries through rising production, consumption, and sheer population growth—that poses threats much harder to counter.', '12.2.3 1972–2002: The Final Formulation of the Multiauthored Concept of the Anthropocene', 'In the abovementioned text, Hans Jonas summarizes the slow awareness of the advent of the Anthropocene in Europe. To a large extent, the notion of the Anthropocene, despite its technicality and its pertaining strictly to the realm of stratigraphy, would not have been conceivable outside of the sphere of critical thinking which gained momentum in the 1960s. This period was rife with philosophical insurgency and political action, and it also saw the emergence of figures such as Barbara Ward and René Dubos, both who drafted the report commissioned by Maurice Strong for the seminal 1972 United Nations Conference on Human Development. This report, titled Only One Earth: The Care and Maintenance of a Small Planet, brought together the contributions of 152 experts from 58 countries, resulting in the 26 principles that make up the Stockholm Declaration and in the creation of UNEP. The first of these principles clearly advances the central idea of a new geological epoch that is conditioned by human action as much as (or more than) by non-anthropic variables:', 'In the long and tortuous evolution of the human race on this planet a stage has been reached when, through the rapid acceleration of science and technology, man has acquired the power to transform his environment in countless ways and on an unprecedented scale.', 'These precedents must be kept in mind so as not to confine the concept of the Anthropocene to the narrow limits of scientific terminology. Indeed, while the International Commission on Stratigraphy (ICS) is still debating its official adoption, this concept is not limited to a proposed revision of stratigraphic nomenclature. It is a collectively formulated idea, circulating through the Zeitgeist of the 1970s–1990s. As James Syvitski (2012) states, “in the 1990s the term Anthroposphere was widely used in the Chinese science literature under the influence of Chen Zhirong of the Institute of Geology and Geophysics at the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing.” In the West, the birth of the term Anthropocene is credited mainly to two biologists, Eugene F. Stoermer and Andrew C. Revkin, as seen in Revkin (2011) and in a historical study of the term produced by Steffen et al. (2011):', 'Eugene F. Stoermer wrote: ‘I began using the term “anthropocene” in the 1980s, but never formalized it until Paul contacted me’. About this time other authors were exploring the concept of the Anthropocene, although not using the term. More curiously, a popular book about Global Warming, published in 1992 by Andrew C. Revkin, contained the following prophetic words: ‘Perhaps earth scientists of the future will name this new post-Holocene period for its causative element—for us. We are entering an age that might someday be referred to as, say, the Anthrocene [sic]. After all, it is a geological age of our own making’. Perhaps many readers ignored the minor linguistic difference and have read the new term as Anthro(po)cene!', 'Indeed, it is from the seminal ideas of Humboldt, Lamarck, Marsh, Stoppani, Vernadsky, and Teilhard de Chardin, but not least from the emergent reflection of biologists, chemists, meteorologists, environmentalists, anthropologists, and philosophers of their generation,8 that Crutzen and Stoermer proposed, in the 2000 congress of the International Geosphere–Biosphere Program (IGBP) in Cuernavaca and then in a 2002 article by Crutzen alone, the recognition of a new geological epoch, the Anthropocene. Considering the combination of biogeophysical forces that shape the Earth system, this epoch is characterized by the fact that anthropic action prevails over forces generated by nonhuman factors. “It seems appropriate,” Crutzen wrote in 2002, “to assign the term ‘Anthropocene’ to the present, in many ways human-dominated, geological epoch, supplementing the Holocene—the warm period of the past 10–12 millennia.”', '12.2.4 The Great Acceleration and Other Markers of Anthropic Interference', 'According to Paul Crutzen, the birth date of this new geological epoch could be conventionally fixed in 1784, the year of James Watt’s steam engine patent and also the birth of the atmospheric carbonization era. Jan Zalasiewicz (2014), Director of the Anthropocene Working Group of the International Commission on Stratigraphy (ICS), prefers to date the beginning of the Anthropocene from the second half of the twentieth century, choosing as his criteria the increase in greenhouse gas emissions and pollution, as well as the inscription on rocks of the radioactivity emitted by the detonation of atomic bombs in open air, among other factors. The proposal put forth by 25 researchers and coordinated by Zalasiewicz to date the Anthropocene from 1950 onward was reported by Richard Monastersky in 2015:', 'These radionuclides, such as long-lived plutonium-239, appeared at much the same time as many other large-scale changes wrought by humans in the years immediately following the Second World War. Fertilizer started to be mass produced, for instance, which doubled the amount of reactive nitrogen in the environment, and the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere started to surge. New plastics spread around the globe, and a rise in global commerce carried invasive animal and plant species between continents. Furthermore, people were increasingly migrating from rural areas to urban centres, feeding the growth of megacities. This time has been called the Great Acceleration.', 'The iconic 24 graphics created by Will Steffen and colleagues in 2015 coined the idea of Great Acceleration, which was forever fixed by the International Geosphere– Biosphere Programme (IGBP—Global Change, 1986–2015) in these terms:', 'The second half of the 20th Century is unique in the history of human existence. Many human activities reached take-off points sometime in the 20th Century and sharply accelerated towards the end of the century. The last 60 years have without doubt seen the most profound transformation of the human relationship with the natural world in the history of humankind. The effects of the accelerating human changes are now clearly discernible at the Earth system level. Many key indicators of the functioning of the Earth system are now showing responses that are, at least in part, driven by the changing human imprint on the planet. The human imprint influences all components of the global environment—oceans, coastal zone, atmosphere, and land.', 'The Anthropocene concept expresses the preponderance of anthropic forces in relation to the other forces that intervene in shaping the Earth’s system. In the previous 11 chapters, we have seen how these forces are causing deforestation, deep imbalances in the climate system, and mass extinctions of plant and animal species on a growing scale, one that is already comparable to the previous five major extinctions. Future paleontologists—assuming that a future remains for us—will notice the sudden disappearance of fossil records of an uncountable number of species. Instead of plant and animal fossils, the traces left by anthropic forces on terrestrial and underwater rocks will be the signatures of isotopes such as plutonium-239, mentioned by Zalasiewicz, as well as numerous other markers, such as the various forms of pollution by fossil fuels, different explosives, POPs, concrete, plastic, aluminum, fertilizers, pesticides, and other industrial waste.', 'Ugo Bardi’s book, Extracted: How the Quest for Mineral Wealth Is Plundering the Planet (2014), provides some insight into this. Mining operations extract 2 billion tons of iron and 15 million tons of copper globally per year. The USA alone extracts 3 billion tons of ore a year from its territory, and according to the US Geological Survey, the removal of sand and gravel for construction on a global scale can exceed 15 billion tons a year. In relation to rocks and earth alone, humans remove, per year, the equivalent of two Mount Fujis (with an altitude of 3776 m, it is the highest mountain in the Japanese archipelago). According to Jan Zalasiewicz, mining operations dig up the Earth’s crust to depths that reach several thousand meters (e.g., 5 km deep in a gold mine in South Africa). And in its extraction processes alone, the oil industry drilled about 5 million kilometers underground, which, as the scholar points out, is equivalent to the total length of man-made highways on the planet.9', 'In 2000, the burning of fossil fuels emitted about 160 Tg per year of sulfur dioxide (SO2) into the atmosphere, which is more than the sum emitted by all natural sources, and more synthetic nitrogen for fertilizers was produced and applied to agriculture than is naturally fixed by all the other terrestrial processes added together. Furthermore, more than half of all accessible freshwater resources had already been used by humans, and 35% of the mangroves in coastal areas had been lost. At least 50% of non-iced land surface had already been transformed by human action in 2000, and, over the last century, the extent of land occupied by agriculture has doubled, to the detriment of forests. Anthropic action interferes decisively not only “externally” in vegetation cover, in the behavior of physical forces, and in the extinction of species but also inside organisms, infiltrating into the cellular tissues of countless species and altering their metabolism, hormones, and chemical balance, as discussed in Chaps. 4, 10, and 11. According to Erle C. Ellis and Navin Ramankutty (2008), biomes have been so altered by humans that it would be better to call them “Anthromes” or “Anthropogenic biomes,” terms that provide “in many ways a more accurate description of broad ecological patterns within the current terrestrial biosphere than are conventional biome systems that describe vegetation patterns based on variations in climate and geology.”', '12.3 The New Man–Nature Relationship', 'In his conversations with Bruno Latour (Éclaircissements 1992), Michel Serres states: “A global subject, the Earth, emerges. A global subject, on the other hand, is constituted. We should, therefore, think about the global relations between these two globalities. We do not yet have a theory that allows us to think about them.” There is, in fact, something unthought in the concept of the Anthropocene. Its importance is, first of all, philosophical. This concept abolishes the separation— foremost in man’s consciousness of himself—between the human and the nonhuman spheres. In the Anthropocene, nature ceased to be a variable that was independent of man and, ultimately, became a dependent variable. Therefore, nature has ultimately become a social relationship. But the inverse is equally true: relations between men in the broadest sense—from the economic to the symbolic sphere— lose their autonomy and gradually become functions that are dependent on environmental variables.', 'Similar to the concept of culture, we know that the concept of nature cannot be defined. Its polysemy allows for irreconcilable, perhaps even contradictory, meanings to coexist in it, especially since the subject who defines nature is himself a part of nature. The only thing we can say is that during the Holocene, nature presented itself to human experience in two fundamental and contradictory ways: (a) as other than him, nature appeared to man’s consciousness as that which is not human, as something essentially different from him and in opposition to how he defined himself, and (b) as a totality, nature was physis and, as such, it encompassed and unified everything, including man and the gods. As Pierre Hadot teaches in a remarkable book, Le Voile d’Isis (2004), this duality was already present in Greece. It arises there in the form of tension between two ideas on nature, which imply opposite attitudes. As early as 1989, Hadot outlined this idea in a lesson at the Collège de France:', 'One can distinguish two fundamental attitudes of ancient man toward nature. The first can be symbolized by the figure of Prometheus: this represents the ruse that steals the secrets of nature from the gods who hide them from mortals, the violence that seeks to overcome nature in order to improve the lives of humans. The theme already appears in medicine (Corpus hippocraticum, XII, 3), but especially in mechanics [...]. The word mêchanê refers, additionally, to ruse. Opposed to this ‘promethean’ attitude, which puts ruse at the service of men’s needs, there is a totally different kind of relation to nature in Antiquity that could be described as poetic and philosophical [that is, orphic], where ‘physics’ is conceived of as a spiritual exercise.', 'Christian Godin (2012) notices quite well that these two attitudes of the Greeks toward the “secrets” of nature “may characterize more generally (and not just in Greece) the two opposite attitudes that man can adopt toward nature: one of fusion and one of conquest.”', 'The Promethean attitude gradually reduces nature to the “object” of the subject until it becomes completely alienated in the modern age by its conversion into quantity, vector force, and res extensa. It can be said that the whole history of philosophy in the modern and contemporary age is strongly dominated by the unfinished double enterprise of determining the ontology of this object and the epistemological status of the subject’s relationship with it. Alexandre Koyré’s definition of this object quite accurately specifies the point that we have reached along this path: “Nobody knows what nature is except that it is whatever it is that falsifies our hypotheses” (as cited by Crombie 1987). In the nineteenth century, Hegel’s logic would still attempt to restore unity between subject and object through a dialectical identification between the spirit and the world or the reciprocal subsumption of one by the other (Beiser 1993). But modern science would simply ignore Hegel as much as he ignored the two categories that have progressively come to characterize science in the modern age: the central role of experiment and the mathematization of knowledge. Such a restoration actually occurs, in Hegel’s century, only in the aesthetic and existential experience of Stimmung, an empathetic convergence and communion of spirit with nature in the lyrical instant or in the spirit’s submission to the sublime. In the lyrical instant, to stick to emblematic examples, we have Goethe’s Über allen Gipfeln ist Ruh, certain small landscapes of the French or Italian countryside by the likes of Valenciennes to Corot, and the second movement of Beethoven’s Pastoral; in the second case, that of the sublime, we have Leopardi’s L’infinito or the fourth movement of Beethoven’s Pastoral.', 'It is superfluous to remember that as a living organism, man is, objectively, nature. But the very idea of anthropogenesis, or hominization, has always been perceived, at least in the West, as a slow and gradual process of distancing and differentiation of the human species from other species and from nature in general. In this process, nature meant, at the same time, that which is not human, that which surrounds man (his Umwelt), and that which is the origin of man. Whatever the meaning— biological, utilitarian, phenomenological, or symbolic—of the word origin, man was, in short, the effect of that origin.', '12.3.1 The Powerlessness of Our Power', 'In the Anthropocene, by contrast, it is nature that becomes an effect of man. Wherever he goes, from the stratosphere to the deep sea, man now finds—objectively, and no longer merely as a projection of his consciousness—the effects of himself, of his action, and of his industrial pollution. La Terre, jadis notre mère, est devenue notre fille10: proposed by Michel Serres, this metaphor of the ancestral mother turned into our daughter illustrates perfectly the concept of the Anthropocene. It urges us to take care of the Earth just as we would do for our child.', 'But this supposed parental responsibility should not mislead us: we have not acquired any parental power over “our child.” If the Earth has become a variable that is dependent on anthropic action, this does not mean that man has greater control over it. On the contrary, since the mother could, occasionally, be a stepmother, the degraded daughter is systematically unsubmissive and “vindictive,” to use James Lovelock’s metaphor in The Revenge of Gaia (2006). Henceforth, societies will be increasingly governed by boomerang effects, that is, by negative effects on man of the imbalances that he has wrought upon ecosystems, as can be best seen in Chap. 15. In its own way, the Anthropocene achieved the ideal unity of science—gradually abandoned since the nineteenth century—because by abolishing the separation between the human and nonhuman spheres, it abolished ipso facto the boundaries between the natural sciences and the “human sciences.” As Michel Serres (2009) also states, today “human and social sciences have become a kind of subsection of life and earth sciences. And the reciprocal is also true.”', 'Today, more than ever, we are existentially vulnerable to that which has become vulnerable to us. The Anthropocene is, in short, the revelation of the powerlessness of our power. This impotence is precisely our inability to halt the effects of that which we have caused and our inability to act economically according to what science tells us about the limits of the Earth system and its growing imbalances. On a more fundamental and also more concrete level, it is our inability to free ourselves psychically from the quantitative, compulsively expansive, and anthropocentric paradigm of capitalist economy. As we will discuss in Chaps. 14 and 15, this inability is the causa causans of the environmental collapse that looms on our horizon. Rachel Carson was already aware of this when she made the following statement in an American documentary aired on CBS in April 1963 (Gilding 2011): “man’s attitude towards nature is today critically important simply because we have now acquired a fateful power to destroy nature. But man is part of nature and his war against nature is inevitably a war against himself.”', '12.3.2 A New World, Biologically, Especially in the Tropics', 'The current radical reduction of vertebrate and invertebrate life-forms is a central feature of the environmental collapse we are facing in the Anthropocene. In fact, we are headed for “a new world, biologically.” A collective synthesis of research done over the past two decades and published in June 2012 in the journal Nature suggests this conclusion. It shows that “within a few generations,” the planet can transition to a new biospheric state never known to Homo sapiens. The main author of this study, Anthony Barnosky of the University of California, declared to Robert Sanders (2012)11:', '“It really will be a new world, biologically. (…) The data suggests that there will be a reduction in biodiversity and severe impacts on much of what we depend on to sustain our quality of life, including, for example, fisheries, agriculture, forest products and clean water. This could happen within just a few generations.', 'The forms of this “new world” are beginning to emerge, insofar as expanding economic activity destroys ecosystems and alters the physical, chemical, and biological parameters of the planet. Compared to the lush biodiversity of the Holocene, the Anthropocene will be almost unrecognizable.', 'The contrast between the former exuberance and the forthcoming destitution will be more acute in the tropics because the greatest biodiversity is still concentrated there and because such latitudes, which are already warmer, will be more rapidly and profoundly affected by global warming and other biospheric degradation factors, as shown by three studies published in 2011, 2012, and 2013. Diffenbaugh and Scherer (2011) state that:', 'In contrast to the common perception that high-latitude areas face the most accelerated response to global warming, our results demonstrate that in fact tropical areas exhibit the most immediate and robust emergence of unprecedented heat, with many tropical areas exhibiting a 50% likelihood of permanently moving into a novel seasonal heat regime in the next two decades. We also find that global climate models are able to capture the observed intensification of seasonal hot conditions, increasing confidence in the projection of imminent, permanent emergence of unprecedented heat.', 'Camilo Mora et al. (2013) also predict that “unprecedented climates will occur earliest in the tropics.” For their part, Oliver Wearn et al. (2012) warn that the extinction rate of vertebrate species in the Brazilian Amazon should expand enormously in the future:', '[…] local extinctions of forest-dependent vertebrate species have thus far been minimal (1% of species by 2008), with more than 80% of extinctions expected to be incurred from historical habitat loss still to come. Realistic deforestation scenarios suggest that local regions will lose an average of nine vertebrate species and have a further 16 committed to extinction by 2050.', 'As seen in the previous chapter, there will also be a radical reduction in most forms of marine life, including (possibly) phytoplankton. Therefore, as the biosphere regresses, both on land and in water, this new world of the Anthropocene will move toward a reduced biosphere that could perhaps be called hypobiosphere.', '12.4 Hypobiosphere: Functional and Nonfunctional Species to Man', 'We propose this neologism, hypobiosphere, to refer to the growing areas of the planet in which deforestation and defaunation will deprive the biosphere of the vast majority of highly evolved multicellular forms of animal and plant life still present in nature. The first 11 chapters of this book, and, in particular, the preceding two chapters, offer a display of partial prefigurations of the hypobiosphere. In fact, to some extent, we are already living in a hypobiosphere. According to Yinon Bar-On, Rob Phillips, and Ron Milo (2018), humans currently account for about 36% of the biomass of all mammals, livestock and domesticated animals for 60%, and wild mammals for only 4%:', 'Today, the biomass of humans (≈0.06 Gigatons of Carbon, Gt C) and the biomass of livestock (≈0.1 Gt C, dominated by cattle and pigs) far surpass that of wild mammals, which has a mass of ≈0.007 Gt C. This is also true for wild and domesticated birds, for which the biomass of domesticated poultry (≈0.005 Gt C, dominated by chickens) is about threefold higher than that of wild birds (≈0.002 Gt C). (…) Intense whaling and exploitation of other marine mammals have resulted in an approximately fivefold decrease in marine mammal global biomass (from ≈0.02 Gt C to ≈0.004 Gt C). While the total biomass of wild mammals (both marine and terrestrial) decreased by a factor of ≈6, the total mass of mammals increased approximately fourfold from ≈0.04 Gt C to ≈0.17 Gt C due to the vast increase of the biomass of humanity and its associated livestock.', 'Given these numbers, it does not seem arbitrary to say that the Anthropocene is reducing the biosphere into two groups. On one side are the species controlled by man and on the other side are those uncontrolled but able to withstand anthropogenic impacts, either due to their minimal contact with humans (such as species living in the deep ocean) or because they thrive in the anthromes, thanks to rubbish or other disturbances in the ecosystems. If this is the case, we should note the gradual prevalence of ten categories of life on the planet:', '(1) Plants intended for human consumption and animal husbandry', '(2) Plant inputs for industry (cellulose, ethanol, etc.)', '(3) Domestic animals', '(4) Animals raised for human consumption', '(5) Animals raised for scientific experiments', '(6) Plant and animal species unaffected by pesticides and human pollutants', '(7) Species that benefit from anthropogenic environmental imbalances', '(8) Species that feed on our food and our waste', '(9) Species that live in remaining remote areas with little contact with humans (e.g., in deep ocean trenches)', '(10) Fungi, worms, microorganisms (viruses,12 bacteria, mites, etc.)', 'Due to its apparent arbitrariness, this classification may be part of an array of absurd taxonomies, like the one imagined by Jorge Luis Borges (1952). However, this one has a rigorous logic, since, as might be expected in the Anthropocene, it divides species into those deeply manipulated by humans (1–5) and those that live outside the sphere of human domination (6–10). The last five categories of this classification, especially the last one, encompass billions or trillions of species; so, this new equilibrium of the biota will not necessarily be hostile to most life-forms. But it will be hostile—perhaps at the point of extermination—to the vast majority of approximately eight million eukaryote species. This is especially the case for vertebrates, a phylum (or subphylum) that contains, according to the 2004 IUCN report, 57,739 described species. Within this phylum, the class of mammals (endowed with a neocortex) includes about 5500 described species, a number that is probably very close to that of existing mammal species.', '12.4.1 The Increase in Meat Consumption', 'Many factors in globalized capitalism combine and strengthen each other to push us toward the hypobiosphere, this impoverished state of the biosphere. Many of these factors have already been examined in previous chapters: the widespread pollution of soil, water, and the atmosphere; the increasing use of pesticides; extreme heat waves in the atmosphere and oceans, which eliminate coral reefs and many other forms of terrestrial and aquatic life; the disappearance of beaches, essential for the spawning of some species, through rising sea levels; destruction (by man and by extreme weather events) of mangroves which are large breeding grounds; the damming of rivers by hydroelectric dams; eutrophication of waters due to overuse of industrial fertilizers; ocean acidification; overfishing; expansion of urban areas and road networks; mining, etc. But in the short term, the most powerful factor for the impoverishment of the biosphere is, undoubtedly, the elimination of wild habitats, especially tropical ones, due to deforestation and fires caused by agribusiness and, in particular, by the livestock industry. According to FAO’s Food Production document:', 'Livestock is the world’s largest user of land resources, with grazing land and cropland dedicated to the production of feed representing almost 80% of all agricultural land. Feed crops are grown in one-third of total cropland, while the total land area occupied by pasture is equivalent to 26% of the ice-free terrestrial surface.', 'In other words, the most important factor currently driving us toward the hypobiosphere is the increasing human consumption of meat. The combined per capita consumption of meat, eggs, and milk in developing countries grew by about 50% from the early 1970s to the early 1990s. Based on this finding, a team of researchers from FAO, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), and the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) produced a document 20 years ago titled Livestock to 2020: The Next Food Revolution (Delgado et al. 1999). Christopher Delgado and his colleagues state in this document:', 'It is not inappropriate to use the term ‘Livestock Revolution’ to describe the course of these events in world agriculture over the next 20 years. Like the well-known Green Revolution, the label is a simple and convenient expression that summarizes a complex series of interrelated processes and outcomes in production, consumption, and economic growth.', 'The authors were obviously correct in their projections to 2020, since the transition to animal protein consumption that began in the 1970s has continued unabated for the past 20 years. But what seemed to them to be a “Livestock Revolution” turned out to be a “Livestock Apocalypse” or, as Philip Lymbery and Isabel Oakeshott (2014) prefer to call it, a “Farmageddon.” Animal breeding for human consumption which, until the nineteenth century, was an almost artisanal activity has notably become, in recent decades, a highly industrialized activity, led by factory farms, first for chickens, then pigs, and more recently cattle. From 2000 to 2014, Chinese production of meat, eggs, and milk has rapidly increased, and this will continue—especially for pork. Its production has jumped from around 40 million tons in 2000 to approximately 56 million tons in 2014 (Yang et al. 2019). The meat industry’s fast food distribution chains are among the largest in the world. McDonald’s, for example, which in the 1950s was still a simple diner in California, has become the world’s largest international meat chain in the past half century, serving about 70 million customers a day in over 100 countries.', 'The consumption of meat on an industrial scale by today’s highly urbanized societies is, first and foremost, a moral problem that increasingly mobilizes philosophical, anthropological, and biological arguments: “Every child should visit an abattoir. If you disagree, ask yourself why. What can you say about a society whose food production must be hidden from public view?” asks George Monbiot (2014). The meat industry and the consumption of its products infringe on the first right of animals: the right to a life without avoidable suffering. And it is not just a threat to the rights of animals directly victimized by agribusiness, but the gigantic increase in herds from the second half of the twentieth century threatens, as stated above, the survival of tropical wild habitats where 80% of terrestrial biodiversity is present.', 'Indeed, meat consumption by humans has reached insane levels, and there is no indication that we have reached the top of this escalation in animal cruelty, one that is driven by the logic of maximum productive efficiency at the lowest cost. Actual numbers surpass all efforts at dystopian imagination. According to Mia MacDonald (2012), who bases herself on 2010 data:', 'Each year, more than 60 billion land animals are used in meat, egg, and dairy production around the world. If current trends continue, by 2050 the global livestock population could exceed 100 billion—more than 10 times the expected human population at that point.', 'In 2010, this meant about ten animals for each human. According to Alex Thornton (2019), basing himself on data from 2014, “an estimated 50 billion chickens are slaughtered for food every year—a figure that excludes male chicks and unproductive hens killed in egg production. The number of larger livestock, particularly pigs, slaughtered is also growing,” as Fig. 12.1 shows.', '[FIGURE 12.1 OMITTED]', '[TABLE 12.1 OMITTED]', 'The graph above translates into Table 12.1 which shows the amounts of animals killed by the food industry each year (in millions), often after a life of terrible suffering.', 'Adding these numbers to the 50 billion chickens mentioned above, the estimates are of nearly 53 billion animals killed for food, which amounts to 7.4 animals killed for each human on the planet in 2014 alone when the population had reached 7.2 billion. Gary Dagorn (2015) reports slightly higher numbers:', 'We never produced and consumed as much meat as we do today. In 2014, the world produced 312 million tons of meat, which is equivalent to an average of 43 pounds per person per year. Each year, 65 billion animals are killed (that is, almost two thousand animals ... per second) to end up on our plates.', 'The stock of animals raised for human consumption is clearly larger, as Lymbery and Oakeshott (2014) show in their book:', 'Some 70 billion farm animals are produced worldwide every year, two-thirds of them now factory-farmed. They are kept permanently indoors and treated like production machines, pushed ever further beyond their natural limits, selectively bred to produce milk or eggs, or to grow fat enough for slaughter at a younger and younger age.', 'In fact, since 1925, at least in the USA, chickens have had their lives shortened from 112 to 48 days, while their weight at the time of slaughter has gone from 2.5 pounds to 6.2 (Elam 2015), due to immobility and the administration of additives and antibiotics in their feeding. Brazilian agribusiness is the largest exporter of beef in the world. In 2018, there were 213.5 million head of cattle, more than one animal per person in the Brazilian territory. Most of the herds are concentrated in the North and Midwest of the country, with pastures expanding rapidly over the Cerrado and the Amazon rainforest, which are among the richest areas of planetary biodiversity. Along with China and some countries in Southeast Asia and in Africa, Brazil is the largest laboratory of the planetary hypobiosphere.', '12.4.2 Doubling of Per Capita Consumption Between 2000 and 2050', 'The world population is expected to increase by just over 50% between 2000 and 2050 (from 6.1 to about 9.7 billion), while world meat production is expected to increase by just over 100% in that same period. According to FAO (2006):', 'Global production of meat is projected to more than double from 229 million tonnes in 1999/01 [312 million tonnes in 2014 and 317 million tonnes in 2016] to 465 million tonnes in 2050, and that of milk to grow from 580 to 1,043 million tonnes. The environmental impact per unit of livestock production must be cut by half, just to avoid increasing the level of damage beyond its present level.', 'Assuming the increasingly unlikely hypothesis that the global food system will not collapse in the next few decades of the century, meat consumption in Europe’s richest countries will tend to stabilize at a level of 80 kg per year per inhabitant (about 220 grams per day). This demand will be met by ever-increasing meat imports from the so-called “developing” countries, such as Brazil, where demand for meat continues to grow at high rates. Resilient as they may be, ecosystems will not be able to resist such increases. Indeed, for several reasons, the mounted knights of the livestock apocalypse are riding species that are bred for human consumption and, especially, cattle.', '12.4.3 Meat = Climate Change', 'Two reports by FAO (2006, 2013) estimate that CO2e (CO2 equivalent) emissions from agribusiness account for about 15% to 18% of total anthropogenic emissions per year. According to FAO’s Livestock’s Long Shadow (2006), livestock production generates more GHG, measured in CO2e, than the transport sector. But these percentages are not accepted by Robert Goodland and Jeff Anhang of the Worldwatch Institute. In 2009, they issued a very well-documented article on the responsibility of carnivorism in the environmental crises (“Livestock and Climate Change. What if the key actors in climate change are cows, pigs, and chickens?”). It states:', 'Livestock’s Long Shadow, the widely-cited 2006 report by FAO, estimates that 7,516 M per year of CO2 equivalents (CO2e), or 18% of annual worldwide GHG emissions, are attributable to cattle, buffalo, sheep, goats, camels, horses, pigs, and poultry. That amount would easily qualify livestock for a hard look indeed in the search for ways to address climate change. But our analysis shows that livestock and their byproducts actually account for at least 32,564 million tons of CO2e per year, or 51% of annual worldwide GHG emissions.', 'Whatever may be the extent of its role in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, in considering the environmental liability of meat-eating, we should include the impacts of the use of antibiotics, hormones, and pesticides on animals, as well as the two next equations:', '12.4.4 Meat = Deforestation, Land-Use Change, and Soil Degradation', 'We present some data on this equation, taken from FAO’s 2006 study. In that year, pasture land occupied 34 million km2 or 26% of dry land. This is more than the total area of Africa (30.2 million km2). The study states that 20% of these lands are degraded. Globally, about 24,000 km2 of forest are replaced by pasture each year, and, according to data from another report (Climate Focus, 2017), an average of 27,600 km2 of forests are replaced by pasture each year (Whyte 2018). Globally, soy is responsible for the deforestation of 6000 km2 per year, but a major part of its cultivation goes toward animal feed. Thus, the deforestation caused by soybean production is also largely due to carnivorism. Two texts by João Meirelles (2005, 2014) show the responsibility of meat-eating in the destruction of the Amazon rainforest, either through domestic or international consumption. David Pimentel (1997) estimates that “nearly 40% of world grain is being fed to livestock rather than being consumed directly by humans.” Much more recent estimates are very close to those of Pimentel. For Jonathan Foley (2014), “today only 55% of the world’s crop calories feed people directly; the rest are fed to livestock (about 36%) or turned into biofuels and industrial products (roughly 9%). In 1997, Pimentel estimated that “the 7 billion livestock animals in the United States consume five times as much grain as is consumed directly by the entire American population.” In addition, Pimentel continued, “if all the grain currently fed to livestock in the United States were consumed directly by people, the number of people who could be fed would be nearly 800 million.” This means that a vegetarian diet would allow us to feed more than twice the current US population and almost all of the world’s starving population. After deforestation, overgrazing exterminates the remaining biodiversity through the effect of trampling, as well as that of feces and urine in excess. Also, according to Pimentel (1997), 54% of US pasture land is being overgrazed.', '12.4.5 Meat = Water Depletion', 'This second equation also makes meat consumption a major contributor to the depletion of water resources, as shown in Fig. 12.2:', 'Since the emergence of the concept of “water footprint,” coined by Arjen Hoekstra (from John Anthony Allan’s concept of “virtual water”), we know how to calculate how much water is used or polluted in the development of each agriculture and livestock product. The production of 1 kg of meat requires the use of 20,000 liters of water. Although the amount of water consumed varies depending on the region where the crop is grown, the irrigation system, and the type of cattle feed, the proportion indicated in the figure above remains substantially the same. The use of water by cattle is even greater when the animals are fed fodder and grain. According to calculations made by David Pimentel (1997), US agriculture accounts for 87% of all freshwater consumed per year. Only 1.3% of this water is used directly by cattle. But when we include water used for fodder and grain, the amount of water used increases dramatically. All in all, each pound of beef consumes 100,000 liters of water.', 'Due to the multiplicity of these impacts, the process of extreme “carnivoration” of the human diet from the 1960s onward is one of the most emblematic characteristics of the Anthropocene. It drives the tendency toward biodiversity collapse and the advent of the hypobiosphere.', '[FIGURE 12.2 OMITTED]', '[REFERENCES OMITTED]', '[PART II BEGINS]', '[CHAPTER 13 BEGINS]', 'The preceding 12 chapters have sought to offer an overall picture of the multiple crises that—together, through interacting dynamics—are propelling us toward socio-environmental collapse. It is from this background that we begin the second part of this book. We will develop the book’s two central theses, laid out in the Introduction and repeated here. First thesis, the illusion that capitalism can become environmentally sustainable is the most misleading idea in contemporary political, social, and economic thought. Second thesis, this first illusion is nourished by a second and a third one. The second illusion, discussed in Chap. 14, is the tenacious belief—at one time reasonable but now definitely fallacious—that the more material and energetic surplus we are able to produce, the safer will be our existence. These two illusions are grounded in a third one, discussed in Chap. 15—the anthropocentric illusion.', 'That capitalism is incapable of reversing the tendency toward global environmental collapse—the thesis of this chapter—is something that should not be considered a thesis, but an elementary fact of reality, given the evidence for it. This fact is even admitted by an authority on global capitalism, Pascal Lamy. In an interview held in 2007, the former director general of Crédit Lyonnais and former director general of WTO stated1:', 'Capitalism cannot satisfy us. It is a means that must remain in the service of human development. Not an end in itself. A single example: if we do not vigorously question the dynamic of capitalism, do you believe we will succeed in mastering climate change? (…) You have, moreover, events that come to corroborate the least bearable aspects of the model: either its intrinsic dysfunctions, such as the subprime crisis, or the phenomena that capitalism and its value system don’t allow us to deal with—the most obvious of those being global warming.', 'In the same year (2007), a similar verdict was issued: “Climate change is a result of the greatest market failure the world has seen.” This sentence is not from an anti- capitalist manifesto, but from the Stern Review. The Economics of Climate Change authored by Lord Nicholas Stern, former president of the British Academy, former Chief Economist and Senior Vice-President of the World Bank, second permanent secretary to Her Majesty Treasury, and professor at the London School of Economics and the Collège de France. If there is someone who no longer has illusions about the compatibility between capitalism and any concept of environmental sustainability, it is Yvo de Boer, former Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), who resigned after the failure of the 15th Convention of the Parties (COP15) in Copenhagen in 2009. A diplomat well versed in the intricacies of international climate negotiations and professionally attached to the weight of words, he clarified his position in 2013 in an interview with Bloomberg Business: “The only way that a 2015 agreement can achieve a 2°[C] goal is to shut down the whole global economy” (Jung et al. 2015). Not too long ago, this statement could summarize the content of this chapter. Today, meeting the 2 °C target no longer depends on a deal. It has become a socio-physical impossibility, as discussed in Chap. 7. What is now on the agenda is to divert ourselves from our current trajectory which is leading us to an average global warming of over 2 °C in the second quarter of the century and over 3 °C probably in the third quarter of the century. We will repeat: any average global warming above 3 °C is considered “catastrophic” (Xu and Ramanathan 2017), as it will lead to low latitudes becoming uninhabitable during the summer, the frequent flooding of urban infrastructure in coastal cities, and drastic decreases in agricultural productivity. It will also probably trigger even greater warming (>5 °C) which will have unfathomable impacts.', 'To minimize the destruction to the Earth system resulting from the predatory dynamics of global capitalism, regulatory frameworks have been implemented on a “deregulated” capitalism. The adjective is in quotation marks to underline its redundancy. In other words, would an economy operating within ecological frameworks still be capitalist? One might ask a more modest question: would an economy still be capitalist if it is capable of functioning under the ten key recommendations for a Global Action Plan proposed in 2014 by Lord Nicholas Stern and Felipe Calderón in their report, Better Growth Better Climate? The first part of this book presents ample evidence that capitalism is incompatible with the adoption of these ten proposals, each of which equates to an admission of capitalism’s congenital environmental unsustainability:', '(1) “Accelerate low-carbon transformation by integrating climate into core economic decision-making processes.” In their investment decisions, corporations will not consider the impact of global warming whenever that impact conflicts with the raison d’être of the investment: the expectation of profitability in the shortest time possible. As long as the investment decision is an inalienable legal prerogative of those in charge of companies (private or state-controlled) and as long as this decision does not emanate from a democratic authority that is guided by science, this first recommendation will be ignored. This is a trivial observation based on overwhelming historical experience, and it is quite puzzling that it would still be necessary to mention it in the twenty-first century.', '(2) “Enter into a strong, lasting and equitable international climate agreement.” This second recommendation brings to mind Antonio Gramsci’s famous adage: “History teaches, but it has no pupils.” Stern and Calderón should remember, in fact, a lesson that has been relentlessly repeated for over 40 years. The first international resolution to reduce GHG emissions dates back to June 1979 (Rich 2018; Klein 2018; Mecklin 2018). In 1988, in Toronto, the World Conference on the Changing Atmosphere took place. More than 340 participants from 46 countries attended it. The same virtuous resolution was promoted here, but this time the goals were well quantified. Participants agreed that there should be a 20% cut in global CO2 emissions by 2005 and, eventually, a 50% cut. Since then, international meetings and protocols have followed monotonously; their central theme has been the reduction of GHG emissions. And yet, since 1990, CO2 emissions have increased by over 63%, as is well known. This pattern is repeated even after the Paris Agreement. The simplest and irrefutable proof of this is that by 2018 global CO2 emissions were already 4.7% higher than in 2015. There is nothing ambitious about the Paris Agreement, it is not legally binding, and it remains ignored by the world of high finance. A report released in March 2020 by Rainforest Action Network, BankTrack, Indigenous Environmental Network, Oil Change International, Reclaim France, and Sierra Club, and endorsed by over 160 organizations around the world, showed that 35 global banks from Canada, China, Europe, Japan, and the United States have together funneled USD 2.7 trillion into fossil fuels in the 4 years since the Paris Agreement was adopted (2016–2019). “The massive scale at which global banks continue to pump billions of dollars into fossil fuels is flatly incompatible with a livable future,” said rightfully Alison Kirsch (Corbet 2019). The Guardian, together with two think tanks (InfluenceMap and ProxyInsight), has revealed that, since the Paris Agreement, the world’s three largest money managers (BlackRock, Vanguard, and State Street) have built a combined USD 300 billion fossil fuel investment portfolio (Greenfield 2019). Furthermore, the Paris Agreement has not been ratified by many OPEC countries, has been abandoned by the United States, and pledges to reduce GHG emissions and to transfer resources to the poorest countries are not being observed by the signatory countries. Germany did not reach its goal of a 40% CO2 emission reduction (from its 1990 level) by 2020. France’s 2015–2018 carbon budget has not been met either. During this period, its annual emissions decreased by only 1.1%, much less than planned. Brazil, the world’s seventh largest GHG emitter, saw an 8.9% increase in emissions in 2016 (compared to 2015), despite the worst economic recession in its recent history. It is true that these emissions decreased by 2.3% in 2017 (2071 GtCO2), compared to 2016 (2119 GtCO2), but the surge in fires and the acceleration of deforestation in the Amazon and other Brazilian biomes in 2019 should completely reverse this very modest advance. Brazil’s current president, Jair Bolsonaro, one of the most heinous promoters of ecocide of our time, probably does not even know what commitments Brazil took on in the Paris Agreement. In September 2019, Antonio Guterres coordinated a high-level UN meeting with the goal of increasing the ambitions of the Paris Agreement. All major economies of the planet failed to answer. The complete failure of the COP25 in Madrid to cope with the climate emergency has once again shown that James Hansen was right when he declared in 2015: “Promises like Paris don’t mean much, it’s wishful thinking. It’s a hoax that governments have played on us since the 1990s.” What still needs to be understood in order to conclude that the Paris Agreement is doomed to the same pathetic fate as the Kyoto Protocol?', '(3) “Phase out subsidies for fossil fuels and agricultural inputs, and incentives for urban sprawl.” In 2009, the G20 issued a solemn statement: “We pledge to phase out fossil fuel subsidies.” In 2015, the G20 countries spent US$ 452 billion on direct subsidies to fossil fuels (Bast et al. 2015), and there was no mention of this in the Paris Agreement. An IMF working paper (Coady et al. 2019) provides estimates of direct and indirect fossil fuel subsidies (defined as the gap between existing and efficient prices for 191 countries): “Globally, subsidies remained large at $4.7 trillion (6.3% of global GDP) in 2015 and are projected at $5.2 trillion (6.5% of GDP) in 2017.” The Climate Accountability Institute keeps reporting on the responsibility of the big polluters. As already pointed out in the Introduction, 63% of global emissions occurring between 1751 and 2010 originated from the activities of 90 corporations in the fossil fuel and cement industries. Just 100 corporations have been responsible for 71% of global emissions since 1988, and just 20 of them are directly linked to more than 33% of all GHG emissions since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. These corporations are not paying the huge costs imposed on our societies by the burning of fossil fuels. We are. As stated by Lord Nicholas Stern, the IMF estimate “shatters the myth that fossil fuels are cheap” (Carrington 2015). In 2016, G7 leaders again urged all countries to phase out fossil fuel subsidies by 2025. Three years later, no significant step has been taken in this direction. And this has not happened for the same reason as always, one that everyone is aware of: seven out of the top ten corporations in the world by revenue (according to the 2018 Fortune Global 500 list) are fossil fuel industries or are umbilically linked to them. Together, the revenues of these seven corporations amount to almost two trillion dollars. Not only do they control states, but the two largest of them—Sinopec Group and China National Petroleum—are state-owned enterprises and are an essential part of the Chinese state’s power strategies.', '(4) “Introduce strong, predictable carbon prices as part of good fiscal reform and good business practice.” With their unwavering faith in the market, economists continue to believe in the carbon pricing myth, as if the energy transition—at the required scale and speed—could be induced through pricing mechanisms. Actually, in 2019, more than 25 national or subnational carbon tax systems have already been implemented or are scheduled to be implemented around the world. So far, there has been no observed impact of these initiatives on fossil fuel consumption. And even as carbon tax systems become more widespread and more aggressive, the market will always be able to adapt to them without significantly reducing fossil fuel consumption, simply because these fuels are not commodities like any other. As seen in Chap. 5 (Fig. 5.1), the huge variations in oil price between 1990 and 2019 had very little impact on the almost constant increase in oil consumption.', '(5) “Substantially reduce capital costs for low-carbon infrastructure investments.” These costs have been reduced without influencing the growth of fossil fuel consumption, as seen above. All projections indicate that there will be no significant reduction in gas, oil, and coal consumption in the discernible future.', '(6) “Scale up innovation in key low-carbon and climate resilient technologies, tripling public investment in clean energy R&D and removing barriers to entrepreneurship and creativity.” With the exception, perhaps, of China and India, there is no global expectation of tripling the allocation of resources for such research. Instead, we see a slight reduction in these investments on a global scale between 2011 and 2017, as shown in Fig. 13.1.', '(7) “Make connected and compact cities the preferred form of urban development, by encouraging better managed urban growth and prioritising investments in efficient and safe mass transit systems.” As seen in Chap. 9, urban sprawl and chaos increase with the proliferation of carmakers, fossil and cement industries, intensive agriculture, urban solid waste, and other unprocessed waste, particularly in so-called “developing” countries where gigantic conurbations tend to be concentrated.', '(8) “Stop deforestation of natural forests by 2030.” As the Global Forest Watch and several other indicators show, deforestation continues to accelerate in [FIGURE 13.1 OMITTED] tropical and boreal forests on a global scale (see Chap. 2). Deforestation of tropical forests will cease simply because by 2030, as seen in Chap. 2, many of them will have been wiped out.', '(9) “Restore at least 500 million hectares of lost or degraded forests and agricultural lands by 2030.” Reforestation has been limited to little more than planting a few—usually exotic—species, ones that are considered inputs for industries. In addition, soils continue to be degraded and will remain so, as long as we maintain the two paradigms on which agribusiness is based on: (a) a commodity agriculture that is toxic-intensive and strongly export-oriented, with food self-sufficiency decreasing in a growing number of countries, and (b) a diet based on carnivorism, which is evidently unsustainable.', '(10) “Accelerate the shift away from polluting coal-fired power generation, phasing out new unabated coal plants in developed economies immediately and in middle-income countries by 2025.” As seen in Chap. 6, coal consumption rose again in 2017 after reaching a plateau and even a slight decrease over the previous 3 years. There are no signs of a significant, much less accelerated, decrease in the burning of coal for power generation on a global scale. Moreover, if the opening of hundreds of thousands of hydraulic fracturing oil and gas wells in more than 20 US states since 2005 has led to a reduction in coal use, it has not resulted in lower atmospheric GHG emissions. In Chap. 5, we refer to the work of Jeff Tollefson and colleagues (“Methane leaks erode green credentials of natural gas”) published in 2013 in Nature. The results of this study have been confirmed by successive observations and measurements. The most recent of these is a study published in April 2016 by the Environment America Research and Policy Center, according to which, in 2014 alone, at least 5.3 billion pounds of methane have leaked from fracking wells (for gas extraction) in the United States. This is equivalent to the average emissions of 22 coal-fired thermoelectric plants in that year (Ridlington et al. 2016).', 'Obviously, evoking historical evidence would not be enough to demonstrate the structural unsustainability of capitalism, since such a system could change, as Lord Nicholas Stern and Felipe Calderón might argue, this being the very raison d’être of their document. It turns out, though, that globalized capitalism cannot change. More than a lesson from history, it is the logic of accumulation that can demonstrate the unfeasibility of the ten recommendations proposed in this document. The regulatory frameworks that the authors dream of are not within the aims of global capitalism and will never occupy a central position in its agenda. This chapter, thus, examines the two impossibilities of implementing regulatory frameworks capable of containing the tendency toward collapse within the realm of globalized capitalism:', '(1) The self-regulation of economic agents induced by the presence of mechanisms that emanate from the market itself', '(2) Regulation induced not only by market mechanisms but by agreements negotiated between businesses, the state, and civil society', '13.1 The Capitalist Market Is Not Homeostatic', 'The idea of self-regulation does not apply to capitalism. It is not ruled by the principle of homeostasis, pertaining to the dynamics of optimizing the internal stability of an organism or system. Maurice Brown (1988) notes that this idea goes back to Adam Smith’s “faith in the homeostatic properties of a perfectly competitive market economy.” Even today, the belief that capitalism is self-regulating has the value of a maxim, being accepted by many scholars. An example of the use of this analogy comparing the mechanisms of the capitalist market to that of a living organism is found in Eduardo Giannetti (2013):', '[The market] “has a functioning logic equipped with surprising properties from the standpoint of productive and allocative efficiency. It is a homeostatic system governed by negative feedback. Every time the system becomes disturbed, it seeks to return to equilibrium.”', 'The analogy between the market mechanism and that of a homeostatic system is a mistake. Since Claude Bernard’s idea of milieu intérieur or the internal environment (Canguilhem 1968/1983)2 and Walter Cannon’s notion of homeostasis, we know that any influence disturbing the balance (deficits or excesses) of the vital functions in an organism or organic system triggers regulatory and compensatory activities that seek to neutralize this influence, resulting in the recovery of balance or, more precisely, in a new balance (allostasis). The maintenance of this efficient stability of the internal environment in its constant exchanges with the external environment is what guides the activity of every organism. Even though it is dependent on the external environment, even though it is, therefore, an “open” system, all the energies of an organism are ultimately centripetal: they are directed toward the survival, security, and reinforcement of the organism’s centrality and stability, in short, of its own identity.', 'Now, regarding the basic functioning of the capitalist market, not only does it not work by negative feedback, but it is even opposed to the mechanism of homeostasis. This is because the fundamental force that drives the market is not the law of supply and demand, which operates within the scope of commodity circulation, but the law of capital accumulation, which operates within the scope of commodity production and is, by definition, expansive. The market can even force a cyclical crisis and less production, but expansion is the basic rule of the return on capital, in other words, of the physiology of capitalism.', 'This leads us to the second misconception of ascribing the attributes of homeostasis to the market: once it reaches its ideal size, every organism ceases to grow and goes onto the phase in which conservative adaptations prevail. This phenomenon does not occur in the capitalist market, which is driven by centrifugal forces (imposed by capital accumulation) toward unlimited growth. The ideal size of the capitalist market is, by definition, one that is infinite. Unlike an organism, if the capitalist market stops growing, it becomes unbalanced. If the age of capitalist growth is coming to an end, this is not due to a homeostatic virtue of the market, but to something extraneous to it: the physical limits of the biosphere’s resilience. Since the 1970s, Ivan Illich (2003) has noticed that:', 'Being open, human equilibrium is liable to change due to flexible but finite parameters; if men can change, they do so within certain limits. On the contrary, the dynamic of the industrial system underlies its instability: it is organized toward indefinite growth and an unlimited creation of new needs that quickly become mandatory in the industrial framework.', 'Another argument of Giannetti found in the same essay is, however, absolutely correct: “the pricing system, notwithstanding all of its surprising merits and properties, has one serious flaw: it does not give the right signs regarding the use of environmental resources.” In this respect, André Lara Resende (2013) is adamant:', 'Regarding the physical limits of the planet or the destruction of the environment caused by human action, relying on the market price system [...] makes no sense. Any student in a basic microeconomics course should know this.', '13.1.1 The Inversion of Taxis', 'The only pricing operated by the market is that of the relationship between economic costs and profit rate. Capitalism cannot price its action on ecosystems because ecosystems are broader in space and time than the investment/profit cycle. In Energy and Economic Myths (1975), Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen essentially states the same thing: “the phenomenal domain covered by ecology is broader than that covered by economics.” In this way, he continues, “economics will have to merge into ecology.” Herman Daly (1990) formulates this thesis equally elegantly: “in its physical dimensions the economy is an open subsystem of the earth ecosystem, which is finite, nongrowing, and materially closed.” In capitalism, the world is upside down: the physical environment is conceived of as a raw material, that is, as an open subsystem of the economic system; there is a reversal of taxis which results in an equally inverted hierarchy of the world, one that is incompatible with its sustainability. Therefore, the ability to subordinate economic goals to the environmental imperative is not within the sphere of capitalism.', '13.2 Milton Friedman and Corporate Mentality', 'There is no moral judgment here. Capitalism is unsustainable not because corporate leaders are bad or unscrupulous men. It would be absurd to suppose that corporate owners, shareholders, and CEOs are people who lack a moral compass. Nothing allows us to affirm that there is less moral sense in business circles than there is in any other civil society environment, for example, in trade unions and universities and in religious, artistic, or sports groups. The problem is that, no matter how much they want to improve the ethical conduct of their corporations, managers cannot afford to subordinate their corporate goals to the environmental imperative.', 'To demonstrate this impossibility, we must start with a trivial example: money loses purchasing power due to inflation and has varying rates of purchasing power or profitability due to unequal market opportunities. To avoid depreciation or its use in disadvantageous conditions, every owner of a certain sum of money must choose the best exchange option in each moment. This applies to both the worker seeking to exchange his salary for as many goods as possible and the investor who chooses the most promising transactions or funds. In light of this elementary market reality, corporations must present the comparative advantages of one investment opportunity over others to their current or future investors and shareholders. If British Petroleum, for example, forgoes a potentially profitable investment because of its environmental impact, investors will have two alternatives: they will replace that decision-maker if they have the power to do so; or, if not, they will redirect their investments to other corporations or even other sectors of the economy that are more likely to be profitable.', 'Both those who offer and those who raise funds in the market are subordinate to this relentless rationality. It explains why corporations cannot self-regulate around variables other than profit maximization. They have minimal leeway to adopt what Seev Hirsch (2011) calls “enlightened self-interest,” as this most often entails sacrificing investment opportunities, raising costs, losing competitiveness, or limiting profits in the short term. Both critics and supporters of capitalism agree on this. In 1876, Friedrich Engels wrote (as cited by Magdoff 2011):', 'As individual capitalists are engaged in production and exchange for the sake of the immediate profit, only the nearest, most immediate results must first be taken into account. As long as the individual manufacturer or merchant sells a manufactured or purchased commodity with the usual coveted profit, he is satisfied and does not concern himself with what afterwards becomes of the commodity and its purchasers. The same thing applies to the natural effects of the same actions.', 'This passage could have been undersigned by Milton Friedman (1912–2006), winner of the Nobel Prize for economics in 1976, adviser to Ronald Reagan, professor at the Chicago School of Economics, and, according to The Economist, “the most influential economist of the second half of the 20th century.” Friedman justly classifies as immoral any initiative of a corporation manager aimed at mitigating environmental impacts if such initiative entails a decrease in profit. Asked in 2004 whether John Browne, then President of British Petroleum, had the right to take environmental measures that would divert BP from its optimal profit, Friedman replied (quoted in Magdoff and Bellamy Foster 2011):', 'No... He can do it with his own money. [But] if he pursues those environmental interests in such a way as to run the corporation less effectively for its stockholders, then I think he’s being immoral. He’s an employee of the stockholders, however elevated his position may appear to be. As such, he has a very strong moral responsibility to them.', 'Friedman’s answer is irrefutably logical. It defines a corporation’s “moral responsibility” as the commitment of its governing bodies to its shareholders. This logic and conception of moral responsibility were defended by the New Individualist Review, on whose editorial board Friedman served.3 For the same reason, Rex Tillerson, chief executive officer of ExxonMobil (2006–2017) and the US Secretary of State (from February 2017 to March 2018), was applauded in May 2015 at the Exxon Mobil Corporation’s annual meeting of shareholders in Dallas by justifying his refusal to host climate change specialists and set greenhouse gas emission limits: “We choose not to lose money on purpose.” Incidentally, a proposal at this meeting to set GHG emission limits obtained less than 10% of the votes (Koenig 2015). This same moral responsibility toward shareholders is illustrated in another case analyzed by The Economist in a 2012 report on rising global obesity levels: in 2010, a PepsiCo leader gave up making her products healthier, as shareholders started becoming outraged. And rightly so, Friedman would say, since shareholders only put their resources and trust in PepsiCo because it promised them the best expected market return. Frederic Ghys and Hanna Hinkkanen (2013) showed why “socially responsible investments” (SRI) are “just marketing,” as they do not really differ from traditional portfolios. According to a financial investment expert, quoted in their report: “the bank would transgress its financial role as an asset manager when including environmental and social considerations in investment decisions for clients who had not directly requested it.”', 'We know that in order to maintain a reasonable chance of not exceeding a global average warming of 2 °C above the pre-industrial period, we have a carbon budget of approximately 600 GtCO2 (Anderson 2015; Figueres et al. 2017). According to Friedman’s logic, for corporations to be a moral entity, in other words, to keep their stock prices high, thereby honoring their contracts and commitments to their shareholders, they must continue burning the coal, oil, and gas reserves controlled by them and by the state-owned corporations that live off the sale of these fuels. In an open letter to Christiana Figueres (UNFCCC Executive Secretary), written by Cameron Fenton (director of the Canadian Youth Climate Coalition) and signed by over 160 people and NGOs (2012), we read:', 'All together, the global oil, coal and gas industries are planning to burn over five times that amount, roughly 2,795 Gigatonnes of carbon. Indeed, their share prices depend on exploiting these reserves. (...) Their business plan is incompatible with our survival. Frighteningly, there are also states, parties to the convention [UNFCCC], with the same plan.', '13.3 Three Aspects of the Impossibility of a Sustainable Capitalism', 'The logic of the impossibility of a sustainable capitalism is concretely proven in numerous aspects of its modus operandi. Let us isolate three aspects of this impossibility.', 'But before that, it is best to start by giving voice not to pure and staunch liberals like Milton Friedman, but to those who believe that capitalism has nothing to fear from environmental regulation. Many of them reject a defensive stance and put themselves on the offensive, claiming that environmental sustainability and increased profits are not only compatible but reciprocally strengthen each other in a virtuous circle.', 'If I am not mistaken, the advocates of this thesis prefer the following argument: adopting innovative solutions to increase the efficiency of the input/product or product/ waste ratio and improve environmental safety in the production process increases the company’s competitiveness (as opposed to reducing it) because it is a value-generating process, be it in terms of risk management, brand image, and, finally, effective financial results. If this is true, then taking the lead and being at the forefront of economic processes with lower environmental impact and risk will ensure a better profitability than the average profit rate. I hope to not underestimate the literature on the business and sustainability binomial by saying that it limits itself to elaborating variations on this theme while offering several case studies on the direct relationship between sustainability and profitability. There are a growing number of economists and NGOs committed to encouraging companies to embrace this belief. They naturally render a tremendous service to society and to the companies themselves through their work. However, their success is limited by the three aspects that render an environmentally sustainable capitalism impossible, as stated in the title of this section.', '(1) Decoupling and Circular Economy', 'Decoupling is the hope that eco-efficient technologies and production processes in industrialized countries with mature economies will enable the miracle of increased production and consumption with less pressure (or at least no corresponding increase in pressure) on ecosystems (Jöstrom and Östblom 2010). It is true that a greater efficiency in the production process may allow for relative decoupling, meaning that it enables a reduction in pressure per product or per unit of GDP. But it does not decrease this pressure in absolute terms, since the number of products does not cease to increase on a global scale. The mechanism known as the “Jevons paradox” or rebound effect describes how increasing demand for energy or natural resources always tends to offset the eco-efficiency gain of technological innovation. Thus, although energy efficiency per product has doubled or even tripled since 1950, this gain is offset by the expansion of production at a greater rate than the eco-efficiency gain.', 'The actions of institutions and business foundations that advocate for an eco-efficient and circular economy based on reverse engineering, recycling, reuse, and remanufacturing are certainly positive. We know, however, that there is no circular economy. No economy, let alone a global economy trapped in the paradigm of expansion, can evade the second law of thermodynamics, whose relationship with economics has been analyzed by Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen since the 1970s (1971, 1975 and 1995). Here we must state the obvious: even though the surplus energy supplied by oil and other fossil fuels in relation to the energy invested to obtain them is declining (for this declining EROI, see Chap. 5, Sect. 5.5), low-carbon renewable energies are not yet, and may never be, as efficient as oil. This means that the energy transition, while urgent and imperative, will further distance us from a circular economy. According to calculations by Dominique Guyonnet, “to provide one Kw/h of electricity through land-based wind energy requires about 10 times more reinforced concrete and steel and 20 times more copper and aluminum than a coal-fired thermal power plant” (Madeline 2016). The only way, therefore, to lessen the environmental impact of capitalism is to reduce, in absolute terms, the consumption of energy and goods by the richest 10% or 20% of the planet. This is incompatible with capitalism’s basic mechanism of expansive functioning and with the worldview that it sells to society.', '(2) The Law of Resources Pyramid', 'The increasing scarcity of certain inputs and the need to secure their large-scale and low-cost supply nullify the potential benefits of various green initiatives taken on by companies. These cannot, in fact, evade the law of the resources pyramid, described by Richard Heinberg (2007):', 'The capstone [of the pyramid] represents the easily and cheaply extracted portion of the resource; the next layer is the portion of the resource base that can be extracted with more difficulty and expense, and with worse environmental impacts; while the remaining bulk of the pyramid represents resources unlikely to be extracted under any realistic pricing scenario', 'This law of the resources pyramid can be stated in an even simpler form: in capitalism, the logic of capital accumulation and surplus, together with the growing scarcity of finite natural resources, necessarily exacerbates the negative environmental impact of economic activity.', '(3) The Impossibility of Internalizing the Environmental Cost', 'What makes it specifically impossible for corporations to submit themselves to the environmental imperative is the impossibility of “internalizing” the costs of increasing environmental damage that they bring about. Methodologies to “price” nature are now multiplying. But whatever the methodology (always based on the assumption that the value of nature is reducible to a market price), the result is the same: it is impossible for corporations to internalize their environmental cost because the total value generated by their activity is often less than the monetary expression of the value of the natural heritage that was destroyed by that activity.4 A report was prepared for The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity (TEEB), titled Natural Capital at Risk. The top 100 externalities of business (2013) show that:', 'The estimated cost of land use, water consumption, GHG emissions, air pollution, land and water pollution and waste for the world’s primary sectors amounts to almost US$7.3 trillion. The analysis takes account of impacts under standard operating practices, but excludes the cost of, and risk from, low-probability, high-impact catastrophic events. (…) This equates to 13% of global economic output in 2009. Risk to business overall would be higher if all upstream sector impacts were included.', '13.4 Regulation by a Mixed Mechanism', 'Let us now examine the second general impossibility of sustainable capitalism mentioned in the beginning of this chapter: sustainability achieved through regulatory frameworks negotiated between organized sectors of civil society, on the one hand, and states and corporations, or state–corporations, on the other. Here we touch on the punctus dolens of all the problems discussed in this chapter and even in this book: the impossibility, at least up to now, of this second route stems from the lack of parity between the two parties, a necessary condition for an effective negotiation.', 'There is still a huge gap between science and societies’ perception of reality. The latter continue to consider the issue of climate change and the decline of biodiversity as non-priority issues in their list of concerns and expectations. But this is changing very quickly. Increasingly aware of the bankrupt planet being bequeathed to them by the values and paradigms of globalized capitalism, society as a whole, led by youth, is beginning to mobilize around the idea of an alternative paradigm, characterized by the subordination of the economy to ecology. Their movements have been gaining much more momentum and global reach than had been foreseen until recently by even the most optimistic. It is true that, up to now, their protests and claims have not slowed GHG emissions, nor the decline in biodiversity, nor the pollution of soils, water, and air. But history, it never hurts to repeat, is unpredictable, and a sudden paradigm shift in civilization, capable of overcoming the imperative of economic growth and anthropocentrism, may be closer than ever before. In any case, the possibility of mitigating the ongoing collapse is dependent on the strengthening of these socio-environmental movements, society’s greater awareness of the extreme severity of the current situation, and the ability to impose on state–corporations’ policies that are congruent with the current state of urgency.', '13.4.1 The State and the Financial System', 'We must recognize that, on the other side of the battlefield, the constituted powers are increasingly united in defending themselves. We should not expect from the state initiatives that might lead corporations toward activities with low environmental impact. We saw in the Introduction that there appears to be a true transformation toward a new type of state that is the partner, creditor, and debtor of corporations: the state–corporation. Contrary to the 1929 crisis, which led to the New Deal in the United States and to a new role of the state in the international stage, the financial crisis unleashed in 2008 displayed the impotence of the state and the loss of its identity. Rather than regulating financial activity, governments embarked on the most comprehensive bailout operation of banks. Since September 2008, the bulk of US and European financial resources has been used to bail out the banking system and “calm the markets.” As a July 2011 document from the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) shows, from December 1, 2007, to July 21, 2010, the Federal Reserve Bank (FED) had, through various emergency programs and other assistance provided directly to institutions facing liquidity strains, given out loans that amounted to US$ 1139 trillion.5 The momentum of the crisis has led banks to, more than ever, take control of the state and raid their resources. According to a GAO report on conflict of interest, requested by Senator Bernie Sanders and published by him on June 12, 20126:', 'During the financial crisis, at least 18 former and current directors from Federal Reserve Banks worked in banks and corporations that collectively received over US$4 trillion in low-interest loans from the Federal Reserve.', 'According to information reported by Bloomberg, as of March 2009, the Federal Reserve had pledged US$ 7.7 trillion in guarantees and credit limits to the North American financial system (Ivry et al. 2011). As shown in Table 8 of the GAO Report to Congressional Addressees cited above, between December 1, 2007, and July 21, 2010, funds from FED emergency programs were mobilized by 21 US and European banks in the form of not term-adjusted transactions, with an aggregate value of US$ 16.115 trillion. As George Monbiot asked in 2011, “Why is it so easy to save the banks, but so hard to save the biosphere?” The question has an unambiguous answer: because saving banks and other corporations have become a primary function of states. According to Moody’s Bank Ratings 2012, which assessed 7 banks in Germany in June 2012 and an additional 17 in July 2012 (plus seven in The Netherlands), even the richest banks in Europe cannot manage their losses alone and cannot strategically survive without the state’s safety net.', '13.4.2 The Obsolescence of the Statesman', 'There is no longer any place in the state for the classic figure of the statesman. Voters complain about the increasing corruption of parties, the loss of values and principles, and politicians’ venal attachment to state benefits. They also complain about managerial incompetence, disloyalty, or lack of leadership of heads of state who betray their ideological profiles and break the promises that galvanized their electoral victories. It has become common to compare yesterday’s politicians with their successors in a way that is always disadvantageous to the latter: De Gaulle with Hollande or Macron, Churchill with Cameron or Boris Johnson, Franklin D. Roosevelt with Obama or Trump, Adenauer with Merkel, De Gasperi with Berlusconi, Renzi, or Giuseppe Conte, etc. But it would be absurd to suppose that societies have lost the ability to produce personalities equal to the great statesmen who led Western democracies at critical moments in their history. What has been lost is the power of the state as the quintessential place of power and of political representation.', '13.4.3 Threats to the Democratic Tradition of Political Representation', 'The idea that political leaders are provisional bearers of a mandate granted to them by the governed, the idea, in short, of political representation, a cornerstone of the democratic tradition born in Athens and expanded by universal suffrage in the contemporary age, obviously continues to be the only legitimate form of power that the state can exercise and must always be furthered. Nevertheless, this legitimacy is critically endangered in our time. By deterritorializing power and shifting strategic decisions to the anonymous boards of corporations (whereby states and their resources are activated to finance and execute these decisions), the globalization of capitalism produces, along with the chronic indebtedness of national states, a progressive transformation in the historical meaning of state political power. With statesmen being unable to set the conduct for and impose boundaries on corporations, popular mandates are increasingly becoming the loci of spectacular ritualizations of power, and its dignitaries are increasingly masters in the art of gesticulation. The meaning of the term “representation” exercised by the representatives of popular votes is, thus, increasingly understood in its pantomimic sense.', '13.4.4 State Indebtedness', 'The international financial network controls states, mainly through their debts. Total government debt reached US$ 59 trillion in 2016 and exceeded US$ 65 trillion in 2018, up from US$ 37 trillion just a decade ago (Cox 2019). This debt has ballooned since the 2008 financial crisis, reaching levels never seen before in peacetime (Stubbington 2019). The dramatic leaps in public debt over the past decade, in both advanced and (so-called) emerging economies, are described in Fig. 13.2, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).', 'Based on data from 2016 to 2017, of the 153 nations listed by the IMF or the CIA World Factbook, 102 now have public debts that exceed 50% of their GDP, 32 have public debts that exceed 80% of their GDP, and 16 countries, including the United States, Japan, and Italy, have debts that exceed 100% of their GDP: “the world’s major economies have debts on average of more than 70% of GDP, the highest level of the past 150 years, except for a spike around the second world war” (Stubbington 2019). François Morin (2015) shows how 28 large banks, resulting from successive merges spurred by globalization and the deregulation of the Reagan-Thatcher era, have a total balance of US$ 50.3 trillion. These major banks have been labelled global systemically important banks (G-SIBs) by the Financial Stability Board (FSB), created in 2009 during the G20 summit in London. According to François Morin, they have fraudulently colluded into an oligopoly that he equates to a worldwide hydra (De Filippis 2015):', 'Public debt plagues every major country. The private and toxic debts were massively transferred to states during the last financial crisis. This public over-indebtedness, linked exclusively to the crisis and to these banks, explains—while completely denying the causes of the crisis—the policies of rigor and austerity applied everywhere. [...] States are not only disciplined by markets but, above all, they are hostage to the world hydra.', 'Corporations manage European public debt through a vicious cycle: (1) Prohibited by their regulations and by the Lisbon Treaty from buying government bonds directly from insolvent states, the European Central Bank (ECB) should buy them [FIGURE 13.2 OMITTED] from banks in the secondary market, thus improving the balance sheet of these banks and avoiding the next systemic banking crisis. In addition, the ECB gives loans to banks at rates of 1% to 1.5%, obtaining “junk” bonds or high-risk government bonds as a guarantee.7 (2) Recapitalized, banks lend “new” money to defaulting states so that they (3) avoid default and repay their creditors. (4) In this way, banks can continue to finance states at higher interest rates, since the state is poorly rated by credit rating agencies. To be able to pay off their debts, states (5) sacrifice their investments and public services for the imperative of reducing the budget deficit and public debt. The so-called austerity measures (6) weaken the economy and lower revenue, which (7) pushes states into default, completing the vicious cycle and taking it to the next level.', '“Those in insolvency have to sell everything they have to pay their creditors,” said Joseph Schlarmann, one of the leaders of the CDU, the party that leads Angela Merkel’s coalition in Germany. This diktat led Greece to sell the island of Oxia in the Ionian Sea to Shaykh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, the emir of Qatar, who bought it for a paltry sum of five million euros. Other Greek islands (out of a total of six thousand), such as Dolicha, were also put on sale. The natural, territorial, and cultural heritage of Mediterranean Europe is considered by creditors to be little more than a bankrupt estate. This type of negligence of Mediterranean civilizational heritage gave rise to bitter assessments done by Salvatore Settis (2002) and Silvia Dell’Orso (2002), this time on the Italian state’s abandonment of its responsibilities toward the nation’s extraordinary cultural memory. Formerly, the state guaranteed citizens the enjoyment of their heritage and devotion to their monuments through museums and the educational system. Having custody over and conserving this memory, the state was the nexus between the generations, and, through research, it also promoted the critical historical revision of this heritage.8 Today, even when it does not simply sell this natural, territorial, or cultural heritage, the state–corporation denatures it by conceiving it as an input for tourism to be managed according to the industry’s profitability motives.', '13.4.5 Tax Evasion, the Huge “Black Hole”', 'The impoverishment of states comes, above all, from tax evasion. In 2000, an article published in the newspaper Libération estimated that approximately six trillion euros worth of resources were diverted to 65 tax havens, with an increase of 12% per year over the previous 3 years (1997–1999). According to a July 2012 report by economists from the Tax Justice Network (TJN):', 'At least $21 trillion of unreported private financial wealth was owned by wealthy individuals via tax havens at the end of 2010. This sum is equivalent to the size of the United States and Japanese economies combined. There may be as much as $32 trillion of hidden financial assets held offshore by high net worth individuals (HNWIs), according to our report The Price of Offshore Revisited which is thought to be the most detailed and rigorous study ever made of financial assets held in offshore financial centres and secrecy structures. We consider these numbers to be conservative. This is only financial wealth and excludes a welter of real estate, yachts and other non-financial assets owned via offshore structures. (…) The number of the global super rich who have amassed a $21 trillion offshore fortune is fewer than 10 million people. Of these, less than 100,000 people worldwide own $9.8 trillion of wealth held offshore. (…) This at a time when governments around the world are starved for resources.', 'In 2008, Edouard Chambost, an expert on the subject, stated that “55% of international trade or 35% of financial flows pass through tax havens.”9 Gabriel Zucman (2014) of the London School of Economics estimates that states lose US$ 190 billion every year to tax evasion. What the tax havens and financial opacity show is the impotence of the states and, at the same time, its complicity in relation to the power of corporations. According to Thomas Piketty (2016):', 'Unfortunately, in this area there is a huge gap between the triumphant declarations of governments and the reality of what they actually do. (…) The truth is that almost nothing has been done since the crisis in 2008. In some ways, things have even got worse. (…)', 'Thus, another vicious cycle, complementary to the one described above, is set up between corporations, investors, and big fortunes. These (1) divert a considerable portion of the taxes that are due to tax havens, and, through the banks that receive these funds, (2) they provide loans to states at high interest rates. Such interest (3) further puts states at the mercy of creditors. From de jure creditors of corporations, states become their chronic debtors, which, finally, (4) fuels the ideology that social democracy is unfeasible because it generates leviathan states that are deficit-prone and wasteful.', 'And, as if this vicious cycle was not enough, part of the state’s revenue is directed to subsidize or finance—through the public treasury, public “development” banks, and tax exemptions—agribusiness, the auto industry, big mining and fossil fuel projects, the military–industrial complex, and other segments with a high concentration of corporate capital that have a deadly environmental impact. The current deterioration of states’ financial health is comparable only to the situation at the end of World War II, when public finances had been destroyed. The difference, however, is that the destruction of the biosphere eliminates the prospect of a new cycle of economic growth, like the one that occurred in 1947–1973.', '13.4.6 What to Expect from States?', 'In this context, what efforts can we still expect from states regarding the environmental regulation of corporate activity? Can the Brazilian state be expected— even before the election of Jair Bolsonaro—to implement an active energy transition policy and/or a policy to protect the country’s forests? What to expect from the United States with its debt of US$ 16 trillion in December 2012 which then jumped to US$ 19 trillion in February 2016 and is expected to exceed US$ 23 trillion by 2020? In 2018, Trump signed a US$ 1.2 trillion plan to revise the entire US nuclear arsenal and authorized a new nuclear warhead for the first time in 34 years (Hennigan 2018). To sustain the country’s military–industrial corporate complex, one of the most polluting and environmentally unsustainable, its “defense” budget must be the third item in the national budget. Dwight Eisenhower had already warned about this in his famous farewell address to the nation in 1961:', 'This conjunction of an immense military establishment and a large arms industry is new in the American experience. The total influence—economic, political, even spiritual—is felt in every city, every Statehouse, every office of the Federal government. We recognize the imperative need for this development. Yet, we must not fail to comprehend its grave implications.', 'What Eisenhower called in 1961 the military–industrial complex has completely taken over the United States and is now best known as the military–industrial–congressional complex (MICC). The civil and military arms industry lobby maintains control over Congress, with the latter approving funds that are not even required by the military, such as financing the production of Abrams battle tanks which the army says it does not want, since the current fleet of 2400 units is only about 3 years old (Lardner 2013). Similarly, in France, although the Centre International de Recherche sur le Cancer (CIRC) has been claiming since 1988 that diesel is carcinogenic, the French government, followed by Germany, continues to subsidize some models of diesel engines, making France the country with the highest percentage (61%) of diesel-powered vehicles in the world. In conclusion, can we expect states to impose efficient environmental controls on the network of corporations that control them? Notwithstanding timid advances, the answer is essentially a negative one.', '13.5 A Super-entity. The Greatest Level of Inequality in Human History', 'When comparing corporate vs. government revenues, it becomes very clear that corporate power is greater than that of states. According to the 2017 Fortune Global 500, revenues of the world’s 500 largest corporations amounted to US$ 28 trillion, the equivalent of 37% of the world’s GDP in 2015. As revealed by the NGO Global Justice Now (2016), “69 of the world’s top economic entities are corporations rather than countries in 2015,” and 10 of top 28 economic entities are corporations. “When looking at the top 200 economic entities, the figures are even more extreme, with 153 being corporations.”10 Nick Dearden, director of Global Justice Now, declared: “The vast wealth and power of corporations is at the heart of so many of the world’s problems – like inequality and climate change. The drive for short-term profits today seems to trump basic human rights for millions of people on the planet.”11', 'Even more important than the power of an isolated corporation is the obscure and highly concentrated power within the corporate network itself. This network is controlled by a caste that is barely visible and that is impervious to the pressures of governing parties and societies. Their investment decisions define the destinies of the world economy and, therefore, of humanity. This is what research on the architecture of the international ownership network, conducted by Stefania Vitali, James B. Glattfelder, and Stefano Battiston (2011) from the Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule (ETH) in Zurich, has shown. Based on a list of 43,060 transnational corporations (TNCs), taken from a sample of about 30 million economic actors in 194 countries contained in the Orbis 2007 database, the authors discovered that “nearly 4/10 of the control over the economic value of TNCs in the world is held, via a complicated web of ownership relations, by a group of 147 TNCs in the core, which has almost full control over itself.” These 147 conglomerates occupy the center of a tentacular power structure, as these authors further elaborate:', 'We find that transnational corporations form a giant bow-tie structure and that a large portion of control flows to a small tightly-knit core of financial institutions. This core can be seen as an economic “super-entity” that raises new important issues both for researchers and policy makers. (…) About 3/4 of the ownership of firms in the core remains in the hands of firms of the core itself. In other words, this is a tightly-knit group of corporations that cumulatively hold the majority share of each other.', '13.5.1 An Emerging Subspecies of Homo sapiens: The UHNWI', 'The concentration of so much economic power in the hands of a numerically insignificant caste is unprecedented in human history. By combining data from the Crédit Suisse Global Wealth Report pyramid (already presented in the Introduction, see Fig. 1.1) with the Wealth-X and UBS World Ultra Wealth Report 2014 and the two Oxfam International reports (2014 and 2015), we can examine this trend in more detail. As seen in the Introduction, in 2017, at the top of the global wealth pyramid, 0.7% of adults, or 36 million individuals, owned 45.9% of the world’s wealth (US$ 128.7 trillion). Penetrating into the vertex of this global asset pyramid, we see that in this group of 36 million (with assets worth over US$ 1 million), there are 211,275 billionaires—the ultra-high net-worth individuals (UHNWI)—corresponding to 0.004% of adult humanity. Their assets alone total US$ 29.7 trillion, assets that, moreover, increased by 7% in 2014 compared to the previous year (64% of UHNWI are in North America and Europe, while 22% are in Asia).', 'Now, with the aid of a magnifying lens provided by two listings (from Forbes Magazine and the Bloomberg Billionaires Index), we will move up to examine the most exclusive stratum of this UHNWI club. In 2013, Forbes Magazine listed 1426 billionaires amassing US$ 5.4 trillion, which is equivalent to the GDP of Japan (the world’s third largest GDP). Forbes Magazine 2018 lists 2208 billionaires with US$ 9.1 trillion, an 18% increase in wealth compared to the previous annual survey. The Bloomberg Billionaires Index contains an even more stratospheric list: the world’s 300 richest individuals had a wealth of US$ 3.7 trillion in December 31, 2013. These 300 people became even richer throughout 2013, adding another US$ 524 billion to their net worth. From the top of this nanopyramid, situated at the extreme end of the Crédit Suisse pyramid, Table 13.1 allows us to contemplate the general picture of human inequality in the current phase of capitalism.', '[TABLE 13.1 OMITTED]', '[TABLE 13.2 OMITTED]', 'In 2014, Oxfam showed that the 85 richest individuals on the planet had a combined wealth of more than US$ 1.7 trillion, which is equivalent to the wealth held by 3.5 billion people, the poorest half of humanity. The concentration of these assets continues to grow at a staggering rate, as shown in the Table 13.2 which shows the declining number of individuals whose combined wealth equals that of the bottom 3.6 billion people (the poorest half of humanity which is becoming increasingly poorer).', 'According to the Oxfam report, An Economy for the 1% (2016),', 'The wealth of the richest 62 people has risen by 45% in the five years since 2010 – that’s an increase of more than half a trillion dollars ($542bn), to $1.76 trillion. Meanwhile, the wealth of the bottom half fell by just over a trillion dollars in the same period – a drop of 38%.', 'Oxfam’s 2015 report stated that in 2014, the richest 1% owned 48% of global wealth, leaving just 52% to be shared between the other 99% of adults on the planet:', 'Almost all of that 52% is owned by those included in the richest 20%, leaving just 5.5% for the remaining 80% of people in the world. If this trend continues of an increasing wealth share to the richest, the top 1% will have more wealth than the remaining 99% of people in just two years.', 'This prognosis was confirmed in the following year. The 2016 report (An Economy for the 1%) states that “the global inequality crisis is reaching new extremes. The richest 1% now have more wealth than the rest of the world combined.” Bill Gates’s fortune, estimated at US$ 78.5 billion (Bloomberg), is greater than the GDP of 66% of the world’s countries. In present-day Russia, 110 people own 35% of the country’s wealth.12 Another way to understand this extreme concentration of wealth is to look at the large financial holding companies. Seven of the largest US financial holding companies (JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, MetLife, and Morgan Stanley) have more than US$ 10 trillion in consolidated assets, representing 70.1% of all financial assets in the country (Avraham et al. 2012).13 Also according to Oxfam, among the countries for which data is available, Brazil is the one with the greatest concentration of wealth in the hands of the richest 1%. Six billionaires in the country hold assets equivalent to that of the poorest half of the Brazilian people, who saw their share of national wealth further reduced from 2.7% to 2% (Oxfam 2017).', 'This emerging subspecies—the 0.004% of the human species known by the acronym UHNWI—owns the planet. Their economic and political power is greater than that of those who have a popular mandate in national governments. Their domination is also ideological, since economic policies are formulated—and evaluated by most opinion leaders—to benefit the business strategies of this caste. Its power surpasses— in scale, reach, and depth and in a way that is transversal and tentacular— everything that the most powerful rulers in the history of pre-capitalist societies could ever have conceived of or had reason to desire. Additionally, the power of these corporations is infinitely disproportionate to their social function of job creation. In 2009, the 100 largest among them employed 13.5 million people, that is, only 0.4% of the world’s economically active population, estimated by the International Labour Organization at 3.210 billion potential workers. Who in such circumstances can still uphold the historical validity of the so-called Kuznets curve? As is well known, Simon Kuznets (1962) claimed, in the 1950s, that as an economy develops, market forces first increase and then decrease economic inequality. In reality, all the actions of this plutocratic super-entity are guided toward a single motto: defend and increase their wealth. Their interests are, therefore, incompatible with the conservation of the biophysical parameters that still support life on our planet.', '13.6 “Degrowth Is Not Symmetrical to Growth”', 'Since the 1960s, evidence of the incompatibility between capitalism and the biophysical parameters that enable life on Earth has been recognized by experts from various disciplines. Some Marxist scholars (or those in close dialogue with Marx) belonging to two generations, from Murray Bookchin (1921–2006) and André Gorz (1923–2007) to a range of post-1960s scholars, such as John Bellamy Foster, Fred Magdoff, Brett Clark, Richard York, David Harvey, Michael Löwy, and Enrico Leff, clearly understand that the current historical situation is essentially characterized by an opposition between capitalism and conservation of the biosphere. In the preface to a book that is emblematic of this position (The Ecological Rift. Capitalism’s War on the Earth, 2010), John Bellamy Foster, Brett Clark, and Richard York write14: “a deep chasm has opened up in the metabolic relation between human beings and nature—a metabolism that is the basis of life itself. The source of this unparalleled crisis is the capitalist society in which we live.”', 'But capitalism is perceived as an environmentally unsustainable socioeconomic system also by those for whom Marx is not a central intellectual reference. Pascal Lamy and Yvo de Boer were already mentioned above. For them there is an unmistakable causal link between capitalism and the exacerbation of environmental crises. In fact, there are a number of non-Marxist thinkers who subscribe to this evidence. Two generations of pioneer thinkers, born between the beginning of the century and the interwar period, have laid the foundation for the understanding that capitalist accumulation is disrupting the climate system, depleting the planet’s mineral, water, and biological resources, and provoking multiple disruptions in ecosystems and a collapse of biodiversity. We will point out the names of great economists, such as Kenneth E. Boulding, Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen, and Herman Daly; geographers like René Dumont (1973); key philosophers on ecology, such as Michel Serres and Arne Naess; theistic philosophers, such as Hans Jonas and Jacques Ellul; biologists, such as Rachel Carson and Paul and Anne Ehrlich (Tobias 2013); or a Christian-educated polymath and ecologist, Ivan Illich. Inspired by the writings of these thinkers who shaped the critical ecological thinking of the second half of the twentieth century, studies on socio-environmental crises are growing today. These studies share an awareness that the imperative of economic growth is increasingly threatening the maintenance of an organized society. Included here are authors of diverse ideological backgrounds and range of expertise, from Claude Lévi-Strauss, Edgar Morin (2007), Cornelius Castoriadis, and Richard Heinberg to Vittorio Hösle, Serge Latouche, and Hervé Kempf, who has a book suggestively titled, Pour Sauver la Planète, Sortez du Capitalisme [To Save the Planet, Leave Capitalism] (2009). In A User’s Guide to the Crisis of Civilization: And How to Save It (2010), Nafeez Mosaddek Ahmed hit the bull’s eye: “Global crises cannot be solved solely by such minor or even major policy reforms – but only by drastic reconfiguration of the system itself.” More recently, Hicham-Stéphane Afeissa (2007, 2012) has been working extensively on an overview of deep ecological thinking in philosophy, especially in the twentieth century.', '13.6.1 The Idea of Managed Degrowth', 'The idea of managed degrowth, which implicitly or explicitly unites the names mentioned above, appears to be the most significant proposal today, perhaps the only one, that would be effective in creating a viable society. Any decreased human impact on the Earth system obviously requires abandoning the meat-based food system and the fossil fuel-based energy system. Moreover, the idea of degrowth rests on three assumptions, which, if not properly understood, would make degrowth seem absurd.', 'The first assumption is that economic downturn, far from being an option, is an inexorable trend. Precisely because we are depleting the planet’s biodiversity and destabilizing the environmental coordinates that have prevailed in the Holocene, global economic growth rates are already declining when compared to the 1945–1973 average, as Gail Tverberg has shown (see Introduction, Sect. 1.7. The Phoenix that Turned into a Chicken). According to the World Bank, in the 2013–2017 period, the average growth of the global economy was 2.5%; this is a 0.9% decrease from the average a decade ago.15 This tendency toward declining growth is inescapable. The current pandemic (SARS-CoV-2) will only accelerate this process of decline, as the economy will find it increasingly difficult to recover from its next crises. Conscious that the developmental illusion is pushing the services rendered by the biosphere toward collapse, supporters of degrowth realize that a managed degrowth would be the only way to prevent economic and socio-environmental collapse, one that will be more brutal and deadly the longer it is denied or underestimated.', 'The second assumption is that administered degrowth is essentially anti-capitalist. The idea of degrowth within the framework of capitalism was rightly defined by John Bellamy Foster (2011) as an impossibility theorem. Finally, the third assumption is that managed degrowth is not simply about a quantitative reduction in GDP. First of all, it means qualitatively redefining the objectives of the economic system which should be about adapting human societies to the limits of the biosphere and of natural resources. Obviously, this adaptation implies investments in places and in countries that lack basic infrastructure and, in general, an economic growth that is crucial for the transition to energy and transport systems that have a lower environmental impact. But these are localized investments that are oriented toward reducing environmental impacts (sanitary infrastructure, abandoning the use of firewood, public transportation, etc.); it is never about growth for the sake of growth.', 'Serge Latouche devoted almost all of his work to the question of degrowth (2004, 2006, 2007, 2012 and 2014). He explains (2014) the link between degrowth and overcoming capitalism: “The degrowth movement is revolutionary and anti-capitalist (and even anti-utilitarian) and its program is fundamentally a political one.” Degrowth, as the same author insists, is the project of building an alternative to the current growth society: “this alternative has nothing to do with recession and crisis … There is nothing worse than a growth society without growth. [...] Degrowth is not symmetrical to growth.” The most poignant formulation on the incompatibility between capitalism and sustainability comes from the theories of two economists, developed before the emergence of the concepts of sustainability and decay: (1) the theory by Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen in 1971 on the increasing generation of entropy from economic activity and, a fortiori, from an economy based on the paradigm of expansion and (2) the theory, developed in 1966 by Kenneth E. Boulding in The Economics of the Coming Spaceship Earth, on the need to overcome an open economy (cowboy economy) toward a closed economy (spaceman economy).16 We will return to this last theory in the next chapter. For now, it suffices to cite a central passage from this text in which Boulding shows that for the capitalist economy, production and consumption are seen as a commodity whereas in the economy toward which we should aspire—the closed economy or spaceman economy—what matters is minimizing throughput, namely, the rate of transformation (operated in the economic system) of raw materials into products and pollution. This means minimizing both production and consumption, which clearly conflicts with the capitalist view of the economic process:', 'The difference between the two types of economy becomes most apparent in the attitude towards consumption. In the cowboy economy, consumption is regarded as a good thing and production likewise; and the success of the economy is measured by the amount of the throughput from the “factors of production,” a part of which, at any rate, is extracted from the reservoirs of raw materials and noneconomic objects, and another part of which is output into the reservoirs of pollution. If there are infinite reservoirs from which material can be obtained and into which effluvia can be deposited, then the throughput is at least a plausible measure of the success of the economy. (…) By contrast, in the spaceman economy, throughput is by no means a desideratum, and is indeed to be regarded as something to be minimized rather than maximized. The essential measure of the success of the economy is not production and consumption at all, but the nature, extent, quality, and complexity of the total capital stock, including in this the state of the human bodies and minds included in the system. In the spaceman economy, what we are primarily concerned with is stock maintenance, and any technological change which results in the maintenance of a given total stock with a lessened throughput (that is, less production and consumption) is clearly a gain. This idea that both production and consumption are bad things rather than good things is very strange to economists, who have been obsessed with the income-flow concepts to the exclusion, almost, of capital-stock concepts.', 'The fundamental unsustainability of capitalism is demonstrated not only through the arguments of Georgescu-Roegen and Boulding but also by Herman Daly’s impossibility theorem (1990). He claims that the impossibility—obvious, but not necessarily accepted in its consequences—of an economy based on the expanded reproduction of capital in a limited environment occupies a position in economic theory that is equivalent to the fundamental impossibilities of physics:', 'Impossibility statements are the very foundation of science. It is impossible to: travel faster than the speed of light; create or destroy matter-energy; build a perpetual motion machine, etc. By respecting impossibility theorems we avoid wasting resources on projects that are bound to fail. Therefore economists should be very interested in impossibility theorems, especially the one to be demonstrated here, namely that it is impossible for the world economy to grow its way out of poverty and environmental degradation. In other words, sustainable growth is impossible.', '13.7 Conclusion', 'What delays a broader acceptance of this set of reflections are not arguments in favor of capitalism, but the mantra of the absence of alternatives to it. Such is the hypnotic power of this mantra that even the scholars most aware of the links between environmental crisis and economic activity cling to the absurd idea of a “sustainable capitalism,” an expression that Herman Daly aptly called “a bad oxymoron—self-contradictory as prose, and unevocative as poetry.” It turns out that it is possible, and more than ever necessary, to overcome the idea that the failure of socialism has left society with no other alternative but to surrender to capitalism. Human thinking is not binary, and the unfeasibility of the socialist experience in the twentieth century does not ipso facto imply the viability of capitalism.'] | [
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] | [(5, 15)] | [
"increases beyond 1°",
"elicit rapid",
"non-linear",
"damage",
"the further",
"the greater the risk",
"2 °",
"take",
"Earth",
"to",
"an exponential rise",
"to",
"states",
"inhospitable to",
"human",
"s",
"5 °",
"is",
"likely",
"by 2100",
"positive",
"feedback",
"s",
"aerosols",
"Ocean",
"temp",
"s",
"and",
"CO2",
"ice–albedo",
"and",
"melting",
"permafrost",
"act in synergy",
"Methane Hydrates",
"release",
"CH4",
"leading",
"outside",
"the most pessimistic projections",
"to",
"Venus",
"vertebrates and forests",
"cease to exist",
"change",
"drive us",
"to pockets with the best",
"environments",
"will be",
"extinction through chance",
"sea level rise",
"flooding",
"hundreds of millions",
"exacerbate",
"wars",
"by",
"water",
"food",
"and",
"disasters",
"nuclear power",
"flooding",
"globalization",
"are eroding the",
"foundations of",
"life worldwide",
"collapse of biod",
"risk",
"extinction for",
"Homo sapiens",
"Agribusiness",
"clear",
"the Amazon",
"intoxicates",
"soil, causes eutrophication",
"Drugs",
"kill animals",
"pollinators",
"are threatened",
"food dependence",
"is",
"immense, and",
"catastrophic",
"we",
"will see",
"extinction of",
"fish",
"biomass",
"declined",
"two-thirds",
"reached irreversible levels",
"loss of oxygen",
"nitrogen",
"from",
"fossil fuels, and",
"warming",
"becomes a marine cemetery",
"ocean",
"absorbs",
"CO2",
"which",
"reduc",
"pH",
"slows embryo growth",
"decrease",
"Corals",
"lethal to",
"life",
"jellyfish",
"proliferate",
"exterminate",
"eggs",
"humans may be",
"unable to survive",
"plastic",
"via bioaccumulation",
"serve as a vector for",
"chemicals or pathogens",
"plankton",
"decline",
"threatening",
"life on the planet",
"pasture",
"occupied",
"the",
"area of Africa",
"each pound",
"consumes 100,000 liters of water",
"The only way",
"agreement can achieve",
"2°",
"is to shut down the",
"economy",
"a deal",
"has become a socio-physical impossibility",
"efficiency",
"does not decrease",
"absolute",
"products",
"increasing demand",
"always",
"offset",
"innovation",
"by",
"expansion",
"at a greater rate than the",
"gain",
"No",
"expansion",
"evade the second law",
"renewable",
"s are not",
"efficient",
"requires",
"more",
"concrete",
"steel",
"copper and aluminum",
"crises cannot be solved",
"by",
"policy",
"only",
"drastic reconfiguration",
"downturn",
"is",
"inexorable",
"growth",
"are already declining",
"The",
"pandemic",
"will",
"accelerate this",
"difficult to recover from its next crises",
"degrowth would",
"prevent",
"collapse",
"more brutal and deadly the longer it is denied",
"What delays",
"acceptance",
"are",
"the mantra of",
"absence of alt",
"s"
] | [
"mechanisms of climate warming",
"are positively influenced by climate itself. As warming increases, so too will the magnitude of these mechanisms, forming a positive feedback",
"Such positive feedback loops are already at work",
"temperature increases beyond 1°C may elicit rapid, unpredictable, and non-linear responses that",
"lead to extensive",
"damage.” Tipping points",
"at which a small perturbation can qualitatively alter the state or development of a system",
"in many processes, the buildup of tensors in a system leads to its collapse: “One way to look at the tendency of complex systems to collapse is in terms of tipping points. This concept indicates that collapse is not a smooth transition; it is a drastic change that takes the system from one state to another",
"In complex systems, it is generally impossible to predict the precise moment when",
"accumulation",
"will",
"overstep a limit.” For",
"Nobre",
"we have already crossed",
"line",
"Many other scientists agree",
"Whether or not we have crossed this red line",
"the further one proceeds in a process of small quantitative changes, the greater the risk of crossing a tipping point",
"we are walking out onto a minefield. The farther we walk out onto that minefield, the greater the likelihood that we set off those explosives",
"Tipping points, therefore, involve analyzing processes that present increasing risks of inflection or nonlinear evolution",
"a 2 °C warming could take the Earth system to much higher temperatures",
"and",
"an exponential rise",
"well above 2.5 meters",
"irreversible warming dynamics “could prevent stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature rises and cause continued warming on a ‘Hothouse Earth’ pathway even as human emissions are reduced",
"Especially important",
"is the hypothesis that this tipping point can be crossed at a level of average global warming no higher than 2 °C",
"“a 2 °C warming could activate important tipping elements",
"raising the temperature further to activate other tipping elements in a domino-like cascade",
"could lead to conditions that resemble planetary states that were last seen several millions of years ago",
"conditions",
"inhospitable to",
"human societies",
"temperatures of as much as 4 °C–5 °C above the pre-industrial period",
"is",
"the most likely scenario by 2100",
"the current Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5",
"has reported values",
"between 2.1 °C and 4.7 °C, slightly higher",
"than those of the IPCC",
"but always with an uncomfortable margin of uncertainty",
"with a 10% probability of exceeding 6 °C.",
"In addition to greater climate sensitivity, the Hothouse Earth hypothesis becomes all the more likely given the combined influence of",
"closely interconnected positive climate feedback mechanisms",
"Anthropogenic aerosols",
"and their interactions can both cool and warm the atmosphere",
"these particles remain one of the greatest lingering sources of uncertainty",
"An eventual lower use of fossil fuels, especially coal, will diminish the",
"aerosol masking effect, leading to additional",
"warming",
"this additional warming is already at work",
"therefore, “global warming will happen faster than we think",
"aerosols, including sulfates, nitrates, and organic compounds, reflect sunlight. This shield of aerosols has kept the planet cooler, possibly by as much as 0.7°C globally.” The urgently needed transition toward low-carbon energy sources will, therefore, lead to an immediate additional increase of at least 0.5 °C in global average temperatures, with relevant regional differences.",
"Oceans sequester",
"the current Earth’s energy imbalance",
"Much of this thermal energy will remain submerged for millennia",
"But",
"the oceans might be starting to release some of that pent-up thermal energy, which could contribute to significant global temperature increases",
"Given the enormity of the ocean’s thermal load, even a tiny change has a big impact” (Katz 2015).",
"and",
"The more the oceans heat up, the less their ability to absorb and store CO2 and, hence, the greater the amount of these gases warming the atmosphere",
"approximately 2% of the global terrestrial net primary productivity",
"are already lost each year “due to dryland degradation",
"even tropical forests are no longer carbon sinks. Actually, they have become a net carbon source due to deforestation and reductions in carbon density within standing forests",
"The ice–albedo feedback",
"The potentially explosive magnitude and speed of GHG",
"release into the atmosphere. This is due to forest fires",
"melting",
"ice",
"and collapse of land permafrost",
"thawing much faster than previously thought, often for the first time since the last glaciation",
"These accelerators of global warming cannot be studied separately because they act in synergy",
"Permafrost",
"have remained frozen since the last glaciation and may have depths of over 700 meters",
"total estimated soil organic carbon storage for the permafrost region is around 1300 petagrams",
"of which around 500 Gt is in non-permafrost soils, seasonally thawed, while around 800 Gt is perennially frozen. These soils contain approximately twice the amount of carbon currently present in the atmosphere.",
"Methane Hydrates",
"there is an increasing risk of irreversible destabilization of sediments in the Arctic",
"seafloor, with a",
"disastrous release of methane into the atmosphere",
"abruptly",
"the ESAS has become increasingly exposed",
"to solar radiation, which",
"accelerates its heating. It has warmed by up to 17 °C, and",
"thawing",
"is already releasing methane in annual quantities no smaller than those of terrestrial Arctic ecosystems",
"once",
"water replaces",
"ice, Earth could warm substantially, equivalent to",
"the additional release of a trillion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere",
"An abrupt thaw in",
"permafrost could be initiated",
"by wildfires or through thermokarst processes",
"Fires in the boreal regions",
"reduce the albedo by covering the reflective white snow with black soot that absorbs sunlight, accelerating",
"melting, bacterial activity, and",
"release of CO2 and methane into the atmosphere",
"Frozen soil doesn’t just lock up carbon — it physically holds the landscape together",
"permafrost is collapsing suddenly as pockets of ice within it melt. Instead of a few centimetres",
"thawing each year, several metres",
"can become destabilized within days",
"The land can sink and be inundated by swelling lakes and wetlands",
"ESAS",
"there is “a potential for possible massive/abrupt release of CH4, whether from destabilizing hydrates or from free gas accumulations beneath permafrost; such a release requires only a trigger.” This trigger can occur at any moment because",
"The ESAS is",
"tectonically and seismically active",
"there will be an escape of 50 Gt of methane",
"in the short-term",
"such a methane pulse",
"will accelerate positive feedback loops that can release even more methane into the atmosphere at an exponential rate of progression, leading to warming that is completely outside even the most pessimistic projections",
"the end result will be runaway global warming",
"lead the Earth toward conditions that prevail today in Venus. This conjecture",
"is totally useless from the point of view of the fate of vertebrates and forests, because both would cease to exist under conditions that are much less extreme. The scenario of warming above 3 °C over the next few decades",
"and the collapse of biodiversity already underway",
"will",
"be enough to cross the tipping points conducive to a “Hothouse Earth” pathway",
"One of the most worrying things is permafrost melting. If it continues to melt as we think it’s already doing in some regions, we may well have a runaway greenhouse effect. We’re",
"very dependent on a few staple crops, such as wheat and rice. If they get hit by climate change, we’re in trouble. We’re medium- to large-size mammals, we take a long time to grow up, we only produce one child at a time and we’re demanding of our environment — this type of mammal is the most vulnerable",
"we’re not immune from extinction",
"The danger is that climate change will drive us into pockets with the best remaining environments",
"The worst-case scenario could be that everyone disappears except those who survive near the North and South poles — maybe a few hundred million, if the environment still supports them — and those will be the remaining humans. The problem is that once you’ve got humans isolated in small areas, they are much more vulnerable to extinction through chance events.",
"sea level rise",
"capable of flooding thousands of square kilometers",
"hundreds of millions of people who may fall into a new category of so-called “natural” disaster victims, the climate refugees",
"may exacerbate conflict over",
"resources",
"wars and armed conflicts are",
"intensified by climate problems, such as droughts, water depletion, food shortages, floods, and hurricanes",
"disasters",
"630 million",
"live on land below projected annual flood levels for 2100",
"The growing vulnerability of nuclear power plants is",
"worrying",
"electrical installations, indispensable for the functioning of the reactor cooling system, are vulnerable to flooding",
"whatever may be its cause: hurricanes, torrential rains, dam failure, or rise in sea level",
"their design",
"calculates safety margins for such phenomena on the basis of historical limits, which are now being exceeded",
"Societies’ very survival depends on their ability to avert",
"impending",
"of biological annihilation via the ongoing sixth mass extinction of species, triggered or intensified by",
"globalization",
"We are eroding the very foundations of",
"life worldwide",
"the collapse of biodiversity and the acceleration of global warming, two processes that interact in synergy, entail an increasing risk of extinction for the Homo sapiens",
"a matter of life and death for people on the planet. A sustainable future cannot be achieved without",
"biological diversity",
"not only for nature itself, but also for all 7 billion people who depend on it.",
"The strong focus on species extinctions, a critical aspect of the contemporary pulse of biological extinction, leads to a common misimpression that Earth’s biota is not immediately threatened, just slowly entering an episode of major biodiversity loss. This view overlooks the current trends of population declines and extinctions",
"This process",
"has accelerated despite diplomatic and other efforts",
"if global biodiversity quantification estimates include the domains of bacteria",
"our planet could contain nearly one trillion species",
"The",
"rate of extinction is speeding up",
"150 to 200 species become extinct every 24 hours. This speed",
"cannot be compared to",
"previous",
"extinctions",
"rates of species extinction are now on the order of",
"1000 times those before humanity’s dominance",
"The number species threatened with extinction has grown rapidly",
"global capitalism",
"is systemically the main cause of biodiversity collapse. Agribusiness is",
"one of the most important causes of population decline and",
"the extinction of vertebrates and invertebrates",
"In the Amazon",
"10 thousand square kilometers",
"are cleared every year",
"eliminating between 475 to 950 thousand animals per year in the Amazon.",
"In addition to advancing over native vegetation cover, agribusiness intoxicates the soil, causes eutrophication",
"and poisons the environment with systemic pesticides",
"insecticides exert",
"genotoxic and cytotoxic effects, and impaired immune function, to reduced growth and reproductive success",
"Use of imidacloprid and clothianidin as seed treatments on some crops poses risks to small birds, and ingestion of even a few treated seeds could cause mortality",
"neonicotinoid insecticides have adverse effects on non-target invertebrate species",
"The situation of birds has worsened",
"Drugs and pesticides",
"kill animals on a large scale",
"leading to kidney failure",
"over 40% of invertebrate pollinators",
"are threatened with global extinction",
"Our food dependence on pollinators is",
"immense, and the consequences of this crisis can be catastrophic",
"Over three-quarters of wild flowering plant species in temperate regions need pollination",
"This is important for the long-term survival of wild plant populations and provides food for birds and mammals",
"pollinated crops represent around one third of global crop production by volume",
"90% of the vitamin C",
"comes from insect-pollinated fruits, vegetables, oils, and seeds",
"loss of a single",
"species reduces floral fidelity",
"in the remaining pollinators, with significant implications for ecosystem functioning in terms of reduced plant reproduction, even when potentially effective pollinators remained in the system",
"The threat of extinction that hovers over bees",
"affects both wild and managed bees",
"Insecticides and fungicides",
"alter insect and spider",
"activity",
"Pesticide and toxin exposure increases",
"mortality from diseases",
"we are probably in the century that will see the extinction of marine fish.” In freshwater",
"the collapse",
"has",
"begun",
"hundreds",
"have",
"disappeared because of human activities",
"The ongoing death toll in freshwater",
"is",
"overwhelming because of the smaller scale of",
"ecosystems and their greater exposure and vulnerability",
"The world’s ocean is at high risk of entering a phase of extinction of marine species unprecedented in human history",
"the combined effects of overfishing, pollution, ocean warming, acidification, and deoxygenation",
"is creating the conditions associated with every previous major extinction of species",
"The speed and rate of degeneration in the ocean is far faster than anyone has predicted. Many of the negative impacts previously identified are greater than the worst predictions",
"marine defaunation has been developing with increasing brutality and speed",
"sea turtles",
"might become extinct within the timespan of a generation or so",
"warming",
"causes high mortality rates in their offspring",
"Extermination of aquatic life is caused by a wide range of anthropogenic impacts, including overfishing, pollution, river damming, warming of the aquatic environment, aquaculture, decline in phytoplankton, eutrophication, deoxygenation, acidification, death, and destruction of corals",
"existential threats also loom over many marine mammals",
"One of the biggest stressors of marine life is",
"noise",
"military",
"pulses and mass strandings",
"damag",
"More than five million",
"suffer ruptured eardrums and",
"hearing loss",
"most major declines in stock biomass and in corresponding yields are due to unsustainable levels of fishing",
"a large fraction of the world’s fished biodiversity is overexploited or depleted",
"total fish biomass has declined",
"two-thirds from historical baselines",
"billions of animals have been lost from the world’s oceans",
"The decline in marine life has",
"reached irreversible levels",
"as natural resources become scarce, capitalism generates new technologies and more radical means of exploration and increasing devastation",
"Only a few decades ago it was virtually impossible to fish deeper than 500 meters: now, with technological improvements",
"bottom trawling is occurring at depths of up to 2,000 meters",
"Most deep-sea fisheries considered unsustainable have started to target fish populations that are low in productivity",
"This leads to rapid declines in",
"population and",
"slower recovery",
"As coastal fisheries",
"have collapsed",
"fishing has spread seaward and deeper",
"There is no environmental variable of such ecological importance to marine ecosystems that has changed so drastically in such a short period of time as a result of human activities as dissolved oxygen",
"The loss of oxygen from the world’s ocean is a growing threat",
"The primary causes",
"are eutrophication",
"nitrogen deposition from the burning of fossil fuels, and ocean warming",
"In seawater, oxygen exists in different concentrations",
"hypoxia or anoxia",
"naturally",
"are rare, small-scale, and",
"seasonal",
"anthropogenic factors",
"turn them into frequent",
"growing phenomena that are large scale and sometimes permanent",
"An anoxic zone,",
"becomes a marine cemetery where there is no place for vertebrates",
"The surface ocean currently absorbs approximately one-third of the excess CO2",
"which leads to a reduction in pH and wholesale shifts in seawater",
"chemistry",
"oceanic acidification decreases",
"concentrations of calcium carbonate",
"which makes it more difficult for a vast group of marine organisms",
"to use these minerals to turn them into their shells or exoskeletal structures. The deficit",
"slows embryo growth, prevents them",
"fully forming",
"or makes their",
"protections less adherent",
"and more vulnerable",
"Calcification",
"will decrease",
"60%",
"Corals are anchors of",
"marine systems and their disappearance may be lethal to underwater life. Warming waters are the most important causa mortis of corals",
"causes corals to expel the microscopic algae (zooxanthellae) living in endosymbiosis with them from their tissues. This",
"occasions",
"coral bleaching, from which they do not",
"recover",
"Sixty",
"mass bleaching events occurred",
"90%",
"have been killed by",
"warming",
"While corals die, jellyfish thrive",
"Once kept in balance",
"jellyfish",
"now proliferate wildly",
"benefiting from (1) warming waters",
"transportation",
"in",
"ballasts of ships",
"multiplication of hard surfaces",
"decline of predatory species",
"extinction of competing species",
"and",
"lower concentrations of diluted oxygen",
"jellyfish complete the work of man.",
"they exterminate",
"eggs",
"creating a world where",
"humans may be soon unable to survive",
"100 million",
"are killed each year by plastic",
"Each of these particles in this plastic soup retains",
"chemical characteristics and toxicity",
"fish",
"which",
"ingest",
"block",
"the digestive tract",
"Microplastic",
"harm via bioaccumulation",
"and can serve as a vector for toxic chemicals or pathogens",
"can",
"carry bacteria",
"to other regions",
"causing invasions of species",
"plastic",
"components are now in human stool",
"plastic pollution is poisoning",
"phytoplankton",
"a decline that is now occurring at alarming rates",
"We observe declines in eight out of ten ocean regions, and estimate a global rate of decline of approximately 1%",
"per year",
"threatening",
"life on the planet",
"marine phytoplankton biomass declines constitute a major component of global change in the oceans",
"changes in phytoplankton biomass and productivity are related to ocean warming",
"Mining operations extract 2 billion tons of iron and 15 million tons of copper globally per year",
"The USA alone extracts 3 billion tons of ore a year from its territory",
"the removal of sand and gravel for construction on a global scale can exceed 15 billion tons a year",
"In relation to rocks and earth alone, humans remove, per year, the equivalent of two Mount Fujis",
"mining operations dig up the Earth’s crust to depths that reach several thousand meters",
"in its extraction processes alone, the oil industry drilled",
"5 million kilometers underground",
"equivalent to the total length of man-made highways on the planet",
"Each year, more than 60 billion land animals are used in meat, egg, and dairy production around the world.",
"this meant about ten animals for each human",
"Adding these numbers to",
"50 billion chickens",
"estimates are of nearly 53 billion animals killed for food",
"We never produced and consumed as much meat as we do today",
"Some 70 billion farm animals are produced worldwide every year, two-thirds of them now factory-farmed",
"in",
"Brazilian territory",
"Most",
"herds are concentrated in the North and Midwest",
"with pastures expanding rapidly over the Cerrado and the Amazon",
"among the richest areas of planetary biodiversity",
"the largest laboratory of the planetary hypobiosphere",
"7,516 M per year of CO2 equivalents",
"or 18% of",
"emissions, are attributable to cattle, buffalo, sheep, goats, camels, horses, pigs, and poultry",
"pasture land occupied 34 million km2 or 26% of dry land",
"more than the total area of Africa",
"20% of these",
"are degraded",
"The production of 1 kg of meat requires the use of 20,000 liters of water",
"each pound of beef consumes 100,000 liters of water.",
"Due to the multiplicity of these impacts, the process of extreme “carnivoration” of the human diet",
"drives",
"biodiversity collapse",
"capitalism is incapable of reversing the tendency toward global environmental collapse",
"Climate change is a result of the greatest market failure the world has seen",
"Yvo de Boer",
"former Executive Secretary of the",
"UNFCCC",
"A diplomat well versed in the intricacies of international climate negotiations and professionally attached to the weight of words",
"clarified his position",
"in an interview with Bloomberg Business: “The only way that a 2015 agreement can achieve a 2°[C] goal is to shut down the",
"global economy",
"Today, meeting the 2 °C target no longer depends on a deal. It has become a socio-physical impossibility",
"What is now on the agenda is to divert ourselves from our current trajectory which is leading us to an average global warming of over 2 °C in the second quarter of the century and over 3 °C probably in the third quarter",
"any average global warming above 3 °C is considered “catastrophic”",
"it will lead to low latitudes becoming uninhabitable",
"the frequent flooding of urban infrastructure",
"and drastic decreases in agricultural productivity. It will also",
"trigger even greater warming",
"which will have unfathomable impacts.",
"evoking historical evidence would not be enough to demonstrate the structural unsustainability of capitalism, since such a system could change",
"It turns out, though, that globalized capitalism cannot change.",
"it is the logic of accumulation that can demonstrate the unfeasibility of",
"recommendations",
"regulatory frameworks",
"authors dream of are not within the aims of global capitalism and will never occupy a central position in its agenda",
"to maintain a reasonable chance of not exceeding a global average warming of 2 °C",
"we have a carbon budget of approximately 600 GtCO2",
"Decoupling is the hope that eco-efficient technologies",
"in industrialized countries with mature economies will enable the miracle of increased production and consumption with less pressure",
"on ecosystems",
"It is true that a greater efficiency in the production process may allow for relative decoupling",
"But it does not decrease this pressure in absolute terms",
"products",
"The mechanism known as the “Jevons paradox” or rebound effect describes how increasing demand for energy or natural resources always tends to offset the eco-efficiency gain of technological innovation",
"although energy efficiency per product has doubled or even tripled",
"this gain is offset by the expansion of production at a greater rate than the eco-efficiency gain.",
"The actions of institutions and business foundations that advocate for an eco-efficient and circular economy",
"are certainly positive",
"however",
"there is no circular economy",
"No economy",
"trapped in the paradigm of expansion, can evade the second law of thermodynamics",
"even though the surplus energy supplied by oil and other fossil fuels in relation to the energy invested to obtain them is declining",
"low-carbon renewable energies are not yet, and may never be, as efficient as oil",
"the energy transition, while urgent and imperative, will further distance us from a circular economy",
"to provide one Kw/h of electricity through land-based wind energy requires about 10 times more reinforced concrete and steel and 20 times more copper and aluminum than a coal-fired",
"plant",
"The only way",
"to lessen the environmental impact of capitalism is to reduce, in absolute terms, the consumption of energy and goods",
"This is incompatible with",
"expansive functioning",
"The increasing scarcity of certain inputs and the need to secure",
"large-scale and low-cost supply nullify the",
"benefits of",
"green initiatives",
"The capstone [of the pyramid] represents the easily and cheaply extracted portion of the resource; the next layer is the portion of the resource base that can be extracted with more difficulty and expense, and with worse environmental impacts; while the remaining bulk of the pyramid represents resources unlikely to be extracted",
"in capitalism, the logic of capital accumulation and surplus, together with the growing scarcity of finite natural resources, necessarily exacerbates the negative environmental impact of economic activity.",
"What makes it specifically impossible",
"to submit",
"to the environmental imperative is the impossibility of “internalizing” the costs of increasing environmental damage",
"Methodologies to “price” nature are now multiplying",
"it is impossible for corporations to internalize their environmental cost because the total value generated by their activity is",
"less than the monetary expression of the value of the natural heritage that was destroyed",
"capitalist accumulation is disrupting the climate system, depleting the planet’s mineral, water, and biological resources, and provoking multiple disruptions in ecosystems and a collapse of biodiversity",
"Global crises cannot be solved",
"by",
"policy reforms – but only by drastic reconfiguration of the system itself",
"economic downturn, far from being an option, is an inexorable trend",
"Precisely because we are depleting the planet’s biodiversity and destabilizing the environmental coordinates",
"global economic growth rates are already declining",
"compared to the 1945–1973 average",
"in the 2013–2017 period, the average growth of the global economy was 2.5%; this is a 0.9% decrease from the average a decade ago",
"This tendency toward declining growth is inescapable",
"The current pandemic",
"will only accelerate this",
"as the economy will find it",
"difficult to recover from its next crises",
"degrowth would be the only way to prevent economic and socio-environmental collapse",
"that will be more brutal and deadly the longer it is denied",
"it is impossible for the world economy to grow its way out of poverty and environmental degradation",
"sustainable growth is impossible.",
"What delays",
"broader acceptance of this",
"are not arguments",
"but the mantra of",
"absence of alternatives",
"Such is the hypnotic power of this mantra that even the scholars most aware of the links between environmental crisis and economic activity cling to the absurd idea of a “sustainable capitalism,”",
"“a bad oxymoron—self-contradictory as prose, and unevocative as poetry.”",
"it is possible, and more than ever necessary, to overcome the idea that",
"failure",
"has left",
"no",
"alternative",
"Human thinking is not binary, and the unfeasibility of the socialist experience in the twentieth century does not ipso facto imply the viability of capitalism"
] | [
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367b33c7c953d52e5aa3695d6f9bcadbdae963d08742e476f6aa2a92f7dbb77d | The CP creates an opportunity for the next recession to spur a permanent shift towards degrowth. | null | Giorgos Kallis et al. 20, Giorgos Kallis is an ICREA professor at ICTAUAB, where he teaches ecological economics and political ecology; Susan Paulson, based at the University of Florida, studies and teaches about gender, class, and ethnoracial systems interacting with bodies and environments; Giacomo D’Alisa is based at CES-UC in Coimbra, Portugal; Federico Demaria is a lecturer in ecological economics and political ecology at the University of Barcelona, part of the Environmental Justice Atlas team that studies and maps environmental conflicts and injustices around the world, “Making Changes on the Ground” through “Strategies for Mobilization,” The Case for Degrowth, Polity Press, 2020, pp. 44–109 | Crises catalyze changes crack dominant norms to reinvent relations Greeks collapse of consumption destabilized identities long natural as rites of passage for transition amid rona mutual aid exploded In Puerto Rico projects nurtured common senses that counter growth hundreds of transition towns are gaining support diverse processes key to resilience and adaptation GNDs for degrowth deploy decarbonization funded with bonds through green banks Pension s and central bank reverse q e UBS and UBI maintain security during transition and enhance freedom to explore lifestyles Services could be run as coop s Reducing work hours opens opportunities and reduces emissions Carbon fee s reduce emissions and generate income taxing pollution and inequality can moderate consumption and discourage Inequality establish conditions for responding to recession not growth, but wellbeing in the absence of growth change the playing field to enable changes events create new conditions reach tipping points 25 percent catalyze change crises open opportunities for mobilization Loss of employment not automatic But establish fertile ground | Crises can catalyze changes , open crack s in dominant norms and expectations, and bring people together to reinvent their relations hips between 20 09 and 20 16 , many Greeks disoriented by prolonged crisis found meaning in coop erative project s from urban gardens, time-banks, and collective art centers to solidarity clinics and food banks The collapse of mass consumption destabilized identities long experienced as natural common experiences, such as mass occupation of public plazas or impromptu planting of gardens, acted as rites of passage for participants transition ing f rom a past no longer viable to a future yet defined . In the practical work of producing new commons, people experiment with new selves and relations amid co rona virus commons of mutual aid and care have exploded all over the world in projects that support the poor and vulnerable, care for doctors and care workers, or provide low-cost technological solutions to hospitals In Puerto Rico , as a result of self-governing processes developed over thirty-five years around an anti-mining movement, everyday performances in common projects have nurtured common senses around nature, community, and democracy that have changed participants in ways that counter common senses of growth coevolution can happen when individuals innovate and perform new relationships that prefigure political change emerging networks become forces for institutional change modelling and advocating different structures of governance. if governments invest unheralded commons provide foundations for economies oriented toward goals other than growth a plurality of embodied common senses always allow human individuals and communities to adapt their values and views of the world around them enduring ethics and systems of community and environmental care that have been undervalued and exploited by market growth are giving rise to new forms of collaboration . Not isolated or utopias , these arrangements intertwine with existing economies Barcelona abounds with commoning arrangements. The CIC the COS health cooperative the Phoenix Commons Oakland communal areas Worldwide, hundreds of eco- communes, transition towns , co-living and co-housing communities are gaining strength Are we proposing to feed nine billion people with urban gardens, lodge everyone in co-housing, and raise the world’s children in neighborhood circles? no we encourage support for cooperative modes of production, consumption, and caring in order to complement and renew large-scale public arrangements and forms of private use or ownership The goal is not to replace one monoculture with another . It is to create conditions that support the development of more vibrant realms of possibility with different rhythms, purposes, and scales. Today’s political systems promote and subsidize a growth-driven model leaving other arrangements underappreciated Our strategy is to re-order values and resources to support the development of diverse processes That diversity will be key to resilience and adaptation Does the case for degrowth reject technological advancements ? On the contrary large-scale high-tech production will continue smaller processes, including those oriented toward purposes other than growth are also strengthened by technological innovations. Across Latin America, small farmers in agroecology organizations combine traditional practices with cutting-edge scientific knowledge Timebankers in New Zealand use computer programs Wikihouse democratizes the construction of sustainable, resource-light dwellings; OpenBionics produces open-source designs for robotic and bionic devices; and the RepRap community creates replicable designs for 3D printers These examples integrate recent innovations in science and engineering with longstanding modes of human organization in small-scale, decentralized, and locally controlled production arrangements that strive to minimize hierarchy and exploitation . policies can establish fertile conditions for cultivating common senses and identities GNDs invest in infrastructure and industry to sustainably meet the challenges of the twenty-first century secure for all people for generations to come: clean air and water; climate and community resiliency; healthy food; access to nature; and a sustainable environment GNDs for degrowth commit to rapid and massive deploy ment of renewable energy decarbonization the refurbishment and provision of new zero-carbon affordable housing reforestation and ecological restoration But degrowth goes further promotes less total energy How can ambitious GND proposals be funded with ? public finance GND-specific bonds through public green banks Pension fund s and central bank s a reverse q e UBS and UBI aim to establish conditions for all to live with dignity and health provide education and healthcare together with affordable access to food , housing , and public transportation Care Income foster equity and solidarity by conceptualizing the universal income as an investment out of common wealth in the contributions and capacities of all of us to take care of ourselves, our kin, and others. Universal basics support degrowth transformations by distributing wealth through means other than market and by maintain ing modest material security for everyone during transition s These policies help transcend perceived conflicts and enhance people’s freedom to explore different lifestyles and to choose how to devote their time and their care . Services such as water , energy , waste management, transportation , education , health , or childcare could be run as municipal or consumer coop erative s rather than for-profit businesses systems like utilities and housing can be gradually re-conceptualized as common goods produced and regenerated through collaborative governance Spaces can be reclaimed for the public and turned into commons through a range of interventions, including lifting earlier interventions designed to privatize and profit from public realms. Examples include converting unused lots into squares or parks legislation , subsidies, and tax breaks currently designed to boost private profits can be realigned to support social and solidarity enterprises and cooperatives Some of our most important commons are the sanitation, health, and care commons that provide resilience against disease and epidemics Automation and artificial intelligence need not lead to job losses Reducing weekly work hours of people already employed opens up more opportunities for people seeking employment This move mitigates exhaustion among those who work too much and insecurity among those who have too little work Structural changes in recent decades have redirected most productivity gains to company profits and shareholder dividends Government and corporate policies can reverse this trend, reducing working hours through longer paid vacations , parental and family-care leave , sabbaticals , shorter daily hours , four-day work weeks , or facilitation of part-time work Legal safeguards and monitoring can support humane limits Reduction of fossil fuels, fertilizers, and other environment-damaging inputs will cause productivity to fall in some areas, meaning that more hours of work will be needed to produce the same goods. This is where the degrowth goals of decreasing production and consumption come together with energy transition, fair employment, and human– environmental wellbeing. Cutting total working hours reduces environmental impacts, including carbon emissions Carbon fee and dividend program s work to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and generate shared income Successful implementation of carbon fees will lead to less carbon emissions which is good for the planet, but also yield less cash dividends over time as carbon emissions decline. That foreseeable decline can be offset by scheduled increases in fees per unit and shifts in priorities for government expenditures. Simply ending subsidies for fossil fuel exploration will liberate significant resources As citizens and politicians increasingly question expenditures allocated with the underlying intention of driving GDP growth corporate subsidies, pharmaceutical development, or defense spending governments may redirect expenditures to healthy, happy human beings We need to stop taxing work and instead tax what destroys societies pollution and inequality Strategic taxes may be levied on water and air pollution, toxic wastes and emissions, or resource extraction. Taxes can help to moderate consumption of products unhealthy for the planet or its people: meat, sugary soft drinks, plastics, frequent flying luxury taxes may serve as sources of revenue, gestures of fairness, and means to discourage conspicuous consumption and resource use. Inequality can be mitigated via progressive taxes progressive taxes like those introduced by the original New Deal helped to shape a period of unusual economic equality and intergenerational mobility Another suite of policies enabling fairer distribution of income include higher minimum and average wages, and rights of workers to organize and bargain economies will become more equitable and harms that are taxed will diminish– all good for societies and environments Related degrowth-minded proposals include a moratorium on new fossil fuel development; a ban of fossil fuel advertising; the phase-out of fossil fuel production, with just transition for workers in dependent industries In addition to curbing negative impacts , the policies provided here establish conditions for responding to an economic recession , where the objective is not to re-launch growth, but to sustain wellbeing in the absence of growth A GND can stimulate and shift employment to healthy parts of the economy that need development. Work-sharing can share diminishing employment among more workers. A Universal Care Income is vital for supporting people and letting them take care of themselves and dependents during economic dislocation Many policies commons are thwarted by fear s that they will slow down economies. the world’s health at the altar of growth, we seek to secure wellbeing and welfare without growth building alternatives is crucial to reducing dependence on economic growth We see promise in cooperatives, eco-communes, and other arrangements Systemic reforms change the playing field to enable people to make sense of needed changes live differently and contribute To realize and sustain politics, you need a strong base of people for whom degrowth is not abstract but what they do every day Political subjects are formed though practice Faced with accelerating climate breakdown, inequalities, and authoritarianism , the pace of culture change proposed here may seem slow However tangible outcomes do not have to be slow . Unpredictable events create new conditions open possibilities and shine new light Cultural adaptation can reach tipping points , after which change is fast and disruptive it takes 25 percent of a population to catalyze social change Politics initiates the unexpected, the unprecedented crises open up opportunities for mobilization Loss of employment creates opportunities for demanding income or reductions in work hours Such shifts do not translate automatic ally into consistent behaviors. But they do establish fertile ground | Crises catalyze changes crack norms bring people together reinvent relations 09 16 Greeks coop s collapse of mass consumption destabilized experienced natural rites of passage transition past no longer viable future yet defined experiment with new selves and relations rona mutual aid and care exploded all over the world Puerto Rico nurtured common senses changed participants counter common senses of growth can happen innovate new relationships prefigure political change emerging networks institutional modelling advocating governments invest unheralded commons foundations other than growth always giving rise new forms of collaboration isolated utopias intertwine Barcelona abounds CIC COS health cooperative Phoenix Commons Oakland hundreds of eco- communes, transition towns , co-living and co-housing communities gaining strength no large-scale public arrangements private one another growth-driven other underappreciated diverse diversity resilience adaptation technological ? contrary large-scale high-tech production will continue smaller other than growth also minimize hierarchy and exploitation policies fertile conditions GNDs degrowth commit deploy renewable decarbonization housing reforestation restoration degrowth further total energy funded ? public finance GND-specific bonds public green banks Pension s central bank reverse q e UBS UBI education healthcare food housing transportation Care support degrowth transformations other than market maintain security during transition transcend perceived conflicts freedom explore different lifestyles how devote time care water energy waste transportation education health childcare coop s common goods Spaces legislation realigned social solidarity losses work hours already employed opportunities seeking exhaustion work too much insecurity too little work reducing working hours longer paid vacations parental family-care leave sabbaticals daily hours four-day work weeks part-time limits hours Cutting total working hours reduces environmental impacts, including carbon emissions Carbon fee s emissions offset increases fees per unit shifts in priorities ending subsidies redirect healthy, happy human beings taxing work destroys societies pollution inequality consumption Inequality progressive taxes curbing negative impacts conditions for responding to recession objective wellbeing in the absence of growth commons thwarted fear world’s health welfare without growth alternatives crucial Systemic change the playing field changes differently contribute realize sustain strong base of people abstract what they do every day formed though practice accelerating climate breakdown, inequalities, and authoritarianism pace seem slow tangible outcomes do not have to be slow new conditions possibilities new light tipping points 25 percent change initiates crises opportunities mobilization Loss of employment opportunities demanding income reductions in work hours automatic fertile ground | ['Crises can catalyze personal changes, open cracks in dominant norms and expectations, and bring people together to reinvent themselves and their relationships. Angelos Varvarousis explains how, between 2009 and 2016, many Greeks disoriented by prolonged crisis found meaning in cooperative projects ranging from urban gardens, time-banks, and collective art centers to solidarity clinics and food banks.6 The collapse of mass consumption and the crisis of the welfare state destabilized identities that have long been experienced as natural. Ephemeral common experiences, such as mass occupation of public plazas or impromptu planting of gardens, acted as rites of passage for participants transitioning from a past no longer viable to a future yet to be defined. In the practical work of producing new commons, people experiment with new selves and relations.', 'Likewise, Guardian journalist George Monbiot notes how, amid the coronavirus crisis, and despite measures of physical distancing, commons of mutual aid and care have exploded all over the world in projects that support the poor and vulnerable, care for doctors and care workers, or provide low-cost technological solutions to hospitals in need of specialized equipment.7', 'In Puerto Rico, as a result of self-governing processes developed over thirty-five years around an anti-mining movement, everyday performances in common projects have nurtured common senses around nature, community, and democracy that have changed participants in ways that counter prevalent common senses of growth.8 In sum, coevolution can happen when individuals innovate and connect with others, and together perform new kinds of relationships that prefigure political change on other scales. Thus, emerging networks become forces for institutional change, both modelling and advocating different structures of governance.', 'Commons That are Already Here', 'The money economy is the tip of an iceberg sustained by immense activity organized in voluntary, reciprocal, and not-for-profit forms.9 Time-use studies in Australia and elsewhere reveal that as many hours are devoted to household and care work (performed largely by women) as to paid employment.10 In 2010 in Catalonia, sociologists Joana Conill, Manuel Castells and their colleagues found that the significant portions of time people dedicated to activities not involving monetary exchange included mutual favors, fixing their own or their friends’ houses or cars, growing or preparing food, or engaging in voluntary organizations.11 What happens if governments counterbalance the enormous investments made to bolster money economies with an increasing appreciation of and support for the skills, values, and strategies exercised in the arrangement of childcare, the sharing of home-grown produce or baked goods, continual attention to ill and elderly members, and the clean up of neighborhood streets and parks?', 'These unheralded commons provide foundations for reconstructing economies oriented toward goals other than growth. The globalization of one monoculture based on selfish competition seems to have undermined myriad forms of mutual aid that have propelled social evolution throughout history. Yet, a plurality of embodied common senses, some contradicting others, always allow human individuals and communities to adapt their values and views of the world around them.', 'The good news is that enduring ethics and systems of community and environmental care that have been undervalued and exploited by market growth are giving rise to new forms of collaboration. Not isolated sanctuaries or exit utopias, these arrangements intertwine with existing economies in various ways.', 'Community Economies in Coevolution', 'The city of Barcelona, where three of us live, abounds with commoning arrangements. The Catalan Integral Cooperative (CIC), for example, interconnects diverse productive ventures and hundreds of self-employed people, with an annual budget of around $480,000.12 Through its Catalan Supply Centre, small producers deliver some 4,500 pounds of food each month to twenty-one spaces self-managed by consumers. CIC issues its own currency, Faircoin, provided as a basic income to members, and funds new cooperative ventures through its self-financing interest-free bank with 155 members and $250,000 in deposits. CIC’s most audacious project is the post-industrial colony of Calafou: a 28,000 msq abandoned factory 60 km outside Barcelona, that twenty-two members rented and developed into twenty-seven units including a hacklab and a soap production lab, carpentry and mechanical workshops, and a professional music studio.', 'Interconnecting some 110,000 people, supporting 6,000 to earn money and 300 enterprises in the Solidarity Economy Network,13 Barcelona’s cooperative ecosystem allows residents with different political and personal sensibilities to dedicate some of their energies to constructing worlds they desire. You can become a member of Som Energia, which will deliver 100 percent renewable electricity to your home at affordable cost; share an electric car through Som Mobilitat; connect to the internet through Som Connexio; receive primary care through the COS health cooperative; live in a cohousing unit built by the architect cooperative Sostre Civic; take turns in a parent-run childcare group; grow vegetables in a community garden; buy produce from a local farmer through membership in a consumer cooperative; or listen to new bands in citizen-run social centers called Ateneus.', 'Barcelona’s history of cooperativism is unique, yet resonates with community economies worldwide. In Mississippi, Cooperation Jackson has developed similarly to CIC. In the Phoenix Commons self-managed co-housing community for over-55s in Oakland, California, residents share communal areas, including a kitchen where rotating committees prepare shared meals.14 Worldwide, hundreds of eco-communes, transition towns, co-living and co-housing communities are learning together and gaining strength in national and global associations.', 'People practicing less damaging and wasteful ways of producing and accessing food are also banding together at various scales. The international peasants’ network Via Campesina represents 182 small farmer organizations in eighty-one countries around a mission to facilitate collaborative learning, exchange, and organizing among individuals and groups exercising and experimenting with healthy and sustainable forms of agriculture.', 'Limits and Doubts', 'Are we proposing to feed nine billion people with urban gardens, lodge everyone in co-housing, and raise the world’s children in neighborhood circles? Indeed not: we encourage support for cooperative modes of production, consumption, and caring in order to complement and renew large-scale public arrangements and forms of private use or ownership.', 'The goal is not to replace one monoculture with another. It is to create conditions that support the development of more vibrant realms of possibility with different rhythms, purposes, and scales. Today’s political systems promote and subsidize a growth-driven model based on private property, paid labor, and market consumption, leaving other arrangements underappreciated, undernourished, and overexploited. Our strategy is to re-order values and resources to support the development of diverse life-making processes operating with different logics. That diversity will be key to resilience and adaptation in the face of historical-environmental challenges.', 'Does the case for degrowth reject technological advancements, marking a retrogression to the grueling labor of earlier times? On the contrary, we recognize the role that large-scale high-tech production will continue to play, and observe that many smaller processes, including those oriented toward purposes other than growth, are also strengthened by technological innovations.', 'Across Latin America, small farmers in agroecology organizations combine traditional practices with cutting-edge scientific knowledge.15 Timebankers in New Zealand use computer programs to record and calculate in-kind contributions.16 Vassilis Kostakis points to initiatives at the interface of digital and physical production, and of local manufacture and global design and distribution: L’Atelier Paysan (France) and Farmhack (US and UK) build open-source agricultural machines for small-scale farming; Wikihouse democratizes the construction of sustainable, resource-light dwellings; OpenBionics produces open-source designs for robotic and bionic devices; and the RepRap community creates replicable designs for 3D printers.17 These examples integrate recent innovations in science and engineering with longstanding modes of human organization in small-scale, decentralized, and locally controlled production arrangements that strive to minimize hierarchy and exploitation.', 'Will collective forms of provisioning and care be exploited to subsidize growth economies? Yes, sharing activities that generate value can be captured and coopted by the market, as new commons open up opportunities for new enclosures. In the meteoric rise of networks for sharing rides, homes, tools, skills, food, and favors, for example, models supporting equitable sharing coexist with forprofit exploitation. Both can contribute to reducing material use, while enacting quite different power relations. There is also the danger that corporations and states will seek to buffer losses by shifting even more welfare costs on to uncommodified family and social life. In some contexts, the model of women performing unpaid reproductive labor to subsidize men’s wage work is already being replaced by one in which the underpaid work of women and men is subsidized by collaborative efforts to supply nourishment, healthcare, childcare, and elder-care.', 'Temptations to romanticize communities and idealize social movements should not blind us to instances in which community-driven action is exclusionary toward outsiders and tyrannical toward its members. Communal projects must negotiate inclusion and exclusion, horizontal and vertical relations, as they address tensions and contradictions in the consolidation of common values and meanings. The model unfolded here across several chapters bolsters this journey by articulating ongoing community-building with changes in state institutions and in personal practices and values.', 'In today’s world, pre-growth and post-growth forms of organization inevitably coexist with enterprises and social systems developed to support growth, promising conflict and contradiction, as well as complementarity. Power dynamics engineered in the growth era, including racism, sexism, and classism, will continue to shadow journeys toward more equitable lifeways. It takes time, collaborative reflection, and courage to adapt deeply internalized identities and relations. Efforts to value the means as much as the ends can generate processes that are rewarding in themselves. Even initiatives that fail to fulfill their original goals have afterlives in the form of persons, relationships, and networks enriched and evolved along the way.', 'Day by Day Transformation to Degrowth', 'In the examples presented above, people come together to provide for practical and spiritual needs in ways that prioritize community and environmental wellbeing. They are adapting long-evolving traditions together with new technologies and ventures in ways that nourish experiences and cultivate communities. How do these day by day exercises of provisioning and governance change politics and societies?', 'Although most of the initiatives described here are not pursued in the name of degrowth, we understand them as prefiguring degrowth transitions. First, permeated by a spirit of living simply within one’s means and in community, they nourish and elevate the common senses with which we started this chapter. Second, activity is directed to the needs and wellbeing of workers and users, not the generation of profit. Third, these initiatives promote models of community ownership and production based on sharing and cooperation. Fourth, many produce less negative socioecological impacts than existing market systems thanks to slower paces, lower material and energy use, and more re-circulation within local economies. While they may look less productive in profit terms, these initia-tives are productive in creating jobs and enhancing human-environmental wellbeing.', 'Cooperative experiments anticipate desired worlds by exercising and consolidating real options that societies may build on as socioecological crises escalate and money economies falter. In the following chapter, we outline a set of policies that can establish fertile conditions for strengthening diverse modes of provisioning and for cultivating common senses and identities. The institutional and structural changes proposed there are motivated by people described here, already thinking and living in different ways.', 'Bodily practices and shared experiences socialize participants and generations in varying ways of being and interrelating. By cultivating plots in urban gardens, people come to better appreciate the challenges and seasonality of food production. They may feel more solidarity with farmers, be less likely to waste food, and more eager to eat whole foods in season. Participants in cooperative projects may move beyond the role of client of commercial providers; rather than addressing grievances to distant power-holders, they become participants in building conditions in which they want to live.', 'Through regular corporal practices, we humans build muscle memory. Our patterns of language, practice, and thought shape the ways our brains develop. So, by exercising our bodies and minds in specific ways, and by engaging and teaching others to do so, we continually produce ourselves and new generations. Large and small adjustments to habits of thought, action, and interaction work in mysterious ways toward institutional and paradigmatic change.', 'As collective bodies and minds change, the personal becomes political. An individual’s voluntary shift from a weekend spent shopping abroad to one picking olives with friends in a community grove, from an evening watching TV to one playing with neighborhood children, may not directly slow the global growth machine, nor revert climate change. However, new habits alter the ways we develop human potential day by day, thereby influencing environments through which family, neighbors, students, colleagues, and others continually develop their potentials. Producing new kinds of people and relationships is fundamental to any cultural transformation and great transition.', '[CHAPTER 4 BEGINS]', 'Policy and institutional changes are outcomes and drivers of coevolution. Societies where common senses already encourage low-impact lives oriented toward wellbeing support reforms to advance degrowth. In turn, timely and crucial policy interventions create spaces for degrowth-oriented common senses and commons infrastructures to develop.', 'In this chapter we propose five types of reforms that can work together to favor futures where common people work, produce, and consume less, share more, enjoy more free time, and live with dignity and joy. These policy packages are: a Green New Deal without growth; universal incomes and services; policies to reclaim the commons; reduction of working hours; and public finance that supports the first four. Recognizing that these proposals will be designed and applied differently in different cultural, geographic, and political contexts and at various scales, they are outlined here in ways relevant for OECD countries.', 'We start from proposals that people are already contemplating or trying out, and that are slowly becoming common sense. After our grand critique of growth systems, it might seem anticlimactic to look at programs currently advanced by political parties in various countries. First, however, it is a plus, not a minus, to draw from and build on agendas in which serious thought, debate, and experimentation have been invested. Second, while these proposals may be moderate when employed to advance the goals of stabilizing or greening growth societies, they become radical when oriented toward managing without growth. Integrated into missions to maintain wellbeing while reducing resource use and environmental damage, these reforms would change the very structure of the system.', 'A Green New Deal Without Growth', 'Green New Deals (GNDs) proposed in the US, EU, and globally integrate social and economic reforms and public works projects to address socioeconomic and environmental challenges simultaneously. Our degrowth vision coincides with the integrated approach of GNDs, and with most of the objectives specified in the 2019 US congressional resolution summarized here: (A) achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions through a fair and just transition; (B) create millions of good, high-wage jobs and ensure prosperity and economic security for all people; (C) invest in infrastructure and industry to sustainably meet the challenges of the twenty-first century; (D) secure for all people for generations to come: clean air and water; climate and community resiliency; healthy food; access to nature; and a sustainable environment; (E) promote justice and equity by stopping current, preventing future, and repairing historic oppression of frontline and vulnerable communities.1', 'Yet, there are some important differences between proposals for GNDs and for degrowth. In current conversations, GND proposals link fulfillment of their objectives to green growth and prosperity, widely understood as increased income and material wealth. In contrast, degrowth recognizes that more income for all means rising GDPs, which correlate with increased environmental damage. The GND proposal for Europe draws attention to this dilemma by also calling for “ending the dogma of endless growth,” abandoning GDP growth as the primary measure of progress, and focusing instead on what matters: “health, happiness and the environment.”2', 'Degrowth and GNDs share commitments to the rapid and massive deployment of renewable energy; the decarbonization of transport and agriculture; the refurbishment and provision of new zero-carbon affordable housing; reforestation and ecological restoration. But degrowth goes further to recognize that, in growth economies, even an expansion of renewable energy brings growing costs and risks. To foster a just distribution of costs and benefits, including to communities where energy sources are located or materials extracted, the plan for the European GND includes an Environmental Justice Commission. Supporting this move, degrowth also promotes the most fundamental way to reduce socioecological costs: use less total energy.', 'Powerful political resistance has been rallied around fears that energy transition will slash jobs and income from sectors dependent on fossil fuels. Partly in response to those pressures, proponents emphasize the potential of GNDs to function as economy-wide stimuli, creating new jobs and new consumption in green sectors. Making sure workers can transition from dirty to clean industries is also crucial in degrowth visions. Rather than high incomes for all, however, our fourth policy package supports high employment without growth through decent wages for all, with less hours worked by each.', 'How can ambitious GND proposals be funded without growth? Our fifth policy package outlines public finance options to raise or reallocate resources for all four proposals. To launch GNDs, governments could issue GND-specific bonds, possibly through public green banks, paid back with returns from the projects themselves in arrangements that do not require the economy as a whole to grow.3 Pension funds could invest in GND projects, keeping money in the public realm, and central banks could buy part of the bonds, in effect a reverse quantitative easing.', 'Universal Basics', 'Universal Basic Services (UBS) and Universal Basic Income (UBI) aim to establish conditions for all members of society to live with dignity and health. In doing so, they also aim to recognize unpaid contributions to society and to generate grounds for various forms of collaboration.', 'UBS provide education and healthcare for all, together with affordable access to food, housing, and public transportation. Economists at London University’s Global Prosperity Institute have developed a plan for guaranteed housing, food, transport, and internet access that would cost the equivalent of 2.3 percent of the UK’s GDP, an amount that could be raised by eliminating two thirds of the tax breaks currently available.4', 'UBI is an income paid to each resident in a municipality, state, or country. By definition universal and unconditional, UBI replaces the stigma and bureaucratic inefficiencies associated with current proof-based assistance such as unemployment relief. In OECD economies, a basic income for adults, set at 15–22.5 percent of the average per capita income, could be funded with a moderate increase in taxes for the richest 10–15 percent, and a deduction of the benefits replaced by basic income.5', 'Louise Haagh observes that a basic income has been advocated from remarkably wide-ranging ideological positions and combined with dissimilar political actions.6 Karl Widerquist, who has long promoted UBI to enhance “the freedom to say no” to exploitative wage relations, assesses varying designs and approaches to basic income, together with lessons learned from experiments underway in Canada, Finland, Kenya, the US and UK.7', 'How and for what purposes UBIs are implemented matters. Some applications aim to subsidize growth by mitigating poverty and improving productivity. Degrowth aligns with other proposals seeking material conditions that can liberate individuals from exploitative employment, support transformation away from environmentally damaging regimes,8 and help move beyond battles of jobs vs. environment toward politics that address viable livelihoods as inseparable from a sustainable earth.9', 'In dialogue with radical feminists, we propose a Universal Care Income that builds on other expressions of UBI, but differs by foregrounding the social recognition of unpaid and highly gendered care work that we all perform to sustain the life and wellbeing of households and communities.10 Care Income seeks to foster equity and solidarity by conceptualizing the universal income as an investment out of common wealth in the contributions and capacities of all of us to take care of ourselves, our kin, and others.', 'At the heart of degrowth is a collective endeavor to make life viable and enjoyable through material and meaningful support not driven toward profit. Universal basics support degrowth transformations by distributing the wealth of nations through means other than market mechanisms, and by maintaining modest material security for everyone during transitions to slower and less marketized economies. These policies promote shared services, such as public transportation, that are vital for reducing resource use and carbon emissions, and help to transcend perceived conflicts between jobs and environments. Finally, universal basics enhance people’s freedom to explore different lifestyles and to choose how to devote their time and their care.', 'Reclaiming the Commons', 'Local and national policies have worked wonders to commodify and privatize almost everything, and they can work equally well to promote cooperative production, provisioning, and living.', 'Services such as water, energy, waste management, transportation, education, health, or childcare could be run as municipal or consumer cooperatives rather than for-profit businesses. The 2019 bankruptcy of Pacific Gas and Electric Company in the wake of California fires sparked mobilization around proposals for a customer-owned utility that would put users on the board overseeing the com- pany’s management, and dramatically reduce costs by eliminating the need to pay dividends to shareholders. Relieved of their profit-making purpose, systems like utilities and housing can be gradually re-conceptualized as common goods, produced and regenerated through collaborative governance.', 'Barcelona is one among many cities actively working to promote commons. TheBarcelona En Comú (Barcelona in Common – BiC) citizen’s platform that has governed the city since 2015 expanded the focus of a municipal innovation agency, Barcelona Activa (initially an incubator for private businesses), to include enhancement of human resources and networks supporting the solidarity economy and commons-based businesses. In government, BiC adapted public procurement standards to prioritize sustainability and social responsibility; legislated that 30 percent of all new housing should be social, making available 1,222 new, low-cost apartments; promoted co-ownership schemes for new social houses built on municipal land; extended the biking network to 250 kms; and ceded unused public spaces to neighborhood cooperatives. A municipal electricity distributor, Barcelona Energía, was set up to use solar power produced on municipal premises to supply public buildings.', 'Spaces can be reclaimed for the public and, where relevant, turned into commons through a range of interventions, including lifting earlier interventions designed to privatize and profit from public realms. Examples include converting unused lots into squares or parks, removing fees and barriers to accessing natural areas (coasts, forests, mountains), recovering underused public or abandoned private buildings for use by neighborhood associations or cooperatives. Low-cost innovations can lead to remarkable improvements in wellbeing. Consider the superblocks program in Barcelona, a grid of basic roads forming 400 by 400 meter polygons, closed to motorized vehicles and street parking. A superblock costs little more than a few traffic signs, improves the quality of life and health of residents, and stimulates neighborhood economies.11', 'In varying contexts and at different scales, legislation, subsidies, and tax breaks currently designed to boost private profits can be realigned to support social and solidarity enterprises and cooperatives. Options include jurisdictional formalization; training and assistance for commons-based start-ups; prioritization in public procurement; funds set up with ethical banks; tax or social security breaks; transitioning bankrupt companies to workers’ ownership, and more.12', 'Some of our most important commons are the sanitation, health, and care commons that provide resilience against disease and epidemics. On these fronts, degrowth prioritizes networks of care, solidarity, and support, both local and translocal; well-funded public and cooperative systems of healthcare, including preventative care; holistic health with emphasis given to healthy environments and healthy and affordable food; and measures to reduce inequalities, a major source of vulnerability to health and other hazards.', 'Reduce Working Hours', 'Productivity has soared over the past century, as technical, informational, and organizational innovations alongside the use of fossil fuels multiplied the output of each human hour worked. Today, North American and Western European societies produce much more than enough for everyone (although maldistribution prevents a portion of citizens from fulfilling basic needs). This excess production begets desperate efforts to generate more demand by expanding markets, changing styles, and planning obsolescence. Breaking free of the growth imperative allows societies to adopt more appealing responses to overproduction: reduce the hours worked for market production and promote self-regulated community initiatives.', 'Automation and artificial intelligence need not lead to job losses. Reducing the weekly work hours of people already employed opens up more opportunities for people seeking employment. This move mitigates stress and anxiety on two fronts: exhaustion among those who work too much, and insecurity among those who have too little work.', 'Historically, with successive increases in productivity, mobilized workers have periodically achieved increases in wages and reductions in working hours. Structural changes implemented in recent decades, however, have redirected most productivity gains to company profits and shareholder dividends, while in many countries average wages have stagnated, and average working hours increased. Government and corporate policies can reverse this trend, reducing working hours through longer paid vacations, parental and family-care leave, sabbaticals, shorter daily hours, four-day work weeks, or facilitation of part-time work.13 Legal safeguards and monitoring can support humane limits in service and remote jobs. In the US, for example, the rhythms of commercial truck driving changed significantly after the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration limited consecutive driving hours and instituted required breaks, all monitored electronically through vehicle computers.14', 'Reduction of fossil fuels, fertilizers, and other environment-damaging inputs will cause productivity to fall in some areas, meaning that more hours of work will be needed to produce the same goods. This is where the degrowth goals of decreasing production and consumption come together with energy transition, fair employment, and human– environmental wellbeing. Cutting total working hours reduces environmental impacts, including carbon emissions.15 The less we work, the less we produce and consume, and the more time we have for non-monetized activities– including leisure, caring, and community engagement– that help to establish healthy and resilient societies.', 'Concerns that people would spend their additional free time shopping, taking exotic holidays, playing computer games, or otherwise using more energy and resources, underestimate how imaginative and resourceful people can be when they have the time and energy to think and create, as many of us did when we were children. The application of carbon fees can reduce the attraction of highimpact recreation industries, while public festivals and sports events can build cultural conditions for enjoying time with others.', 'Public Finance That Greens and Equalizes', 'How can the policies discussed here be funded without economic growth? A shift of political priorities away from increasing profits and GDPs opens up many options for reorganizing government revenues and expenditures.', 'Carbon fee and dividend programs, like those already operating in Canada and Switzerland, work simultaneously to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and generate shared income.16 Analysts estimate that fees around $100 per ton would have effective impacts in the United States.17 “Climate income” generated from such fees could be shared through public programs such as funding the universal basics described above, and/or returned to individuals through credits. Some proposals balance fees and dividends in ways that levy more carbon costs on high earners and increase the net income of people in the lower half of income distribution.', 'Successful implementation of carbon fees will lead to less carbon emissions, which is good for the planet, but also yield less cash dividends over time as carbon emissions decline. That foreseeable decline can be offset by scheduled increases in fees per unit, and by gradual shifts in priorities for government expenditures. Simply ending subsidies for fossil fuel exploration and exploitation will liberate significant resources. As citizens and politicians increasingly question expenditures allocated with the underlying intention of driving GDP growth (e.g. corporate subsidies, pharmaceutical development, or defense spending– which in the US totaled around $700 billion in 2019),18 governments may redirect expenditures to their most valuable resource: healthy, happy human beings.', 'We need to stop taxing what sustains societies (people’s work), and instead tax what destroys societies (pollution and inequality). Strategic taxes may be levied on water and air pollution, toxic wastes and emissions, or resource extraction. Taxes can help to moderate consumption of products unhealthy for the planet or its people: meat, sugary soft drinks, plastics, frequent flying. And whereas VAT and sales taxes can be regressive, luxury taxes (e.g. on SUVs, yachts, private jets) may serve as sources of revenue, gestures of fairness, and means to discourage conspicuous consumption and resource use.', 'Inequality can be mitigated via globally coordinated progressive taxes on wealth, like those Thomas Piketty proposes should be levied on capital, large inheritances, and estates, together with a global tax on financial transactions and translational profits.19 Key also are progressive income taxes, like those introduced by the original New Deal, which helped to shape a period of unusual economic equality and intergenerational mobility in the US. Between 1936 and 1980, the highest marginal personal income tax rates for US residents ranged between 70 percent and 91 percent.20 Today, such taxes will need international restrictions on fiscal paradises and tax havens to avoid a race to the bottom among countries using low tax rates to attract billionaires.21', 'Another suite of policies enabling fairer distribution of income include higher minimum and average wages, and rights of workers to organize and bargain. Perhaps even more vital are constraints on maximum earnings established by limits or steeply progressive taxes, promoting a common sense of “enough is enough.”22 An international standard called Wagemark is already used by companies, non-profit organizations, and government agencies to certify that the ratio between their highest and lowest earners is within 8:1.23 And in 2016, the city of Portland, Oregon, voted to implement high surcharges on companies exceeding set ratios.24', 'If these taxes and limits are successful, economies will become more equitable and harms that are taxed will diminish– all good for societies and environments. At the same time, of course, revenues from these taxes may decline, changing balances of public finance. Longer-term plans may reduce expenditures on public services by reducing outsourcing to for-profit enterprises, and focusing on low-cost interventions with high wellbeing returns (e.g. preventative healthcare with family doctors instead of the latest and most expensive hospital equipment). A gradual strengthening of lower-cost solidarity and community economies will be crucial to building low-impact low-cost worlds that are not experienced as painful austerity, but as common wellbeing.', 'Synergies', 'These five policy packages work together in synergy. Realignment of expenditures, together with corporate and wealth taxes, may fund Green New Deal measures or basic services. While basic incomes or carbon dividends might stimulate consumption among some people, resource taxes and carbon fees could disincentivize ecologically harmful choices. Policies that strengthen community economies provide outlets for creative energies liberated by reduced work hours or secured by a Universal Care Income. In the US, where the possibility of working less hours is constrained by policies that require full-time employment to access benefits such as healthcare, retirement, or education, universal basic services would free up businesses, schools, and others to hire and organize work in more fruitful ways.', 'Countless other policy changes that could contribute to positive degrowth transitions are not examined here due to constraints of space. Fundamental among these are proposals for changing money systems by limiting the domain of general purpose money, creating positive (or public) money, forbidding private banks to create new money through loans, and supporting community currencies and time-banks.25 Also basic are policies for the transformation of food systems to reduce waste, transitions away from meat-heavy diets, and the promotion of agroecology and community-supported agriculture. Reviving and repopulating the countryside, reinvigorating rural economies and ecologies, can also be vital for supporting healthy degrowth.', 'Shared Planet, Different Realities', 'The proposals outlined here apply to OECD countries like Spain or the US, which we know well. Some may be fruitfully adapted to other contexts. However, rather than projecting our own experiences onto non-Western or low-income countries, we are more interested in learning from proposals coming from their communities, civic societies, and environmental and social justice groups.', 'Degrowth makes a case for the OECD to put its own house in order before offering directions to the rest of the world, on whose backs it grew. A priority should be stopping the flow of money and natural resources from low- to high-income countries. As Jason Hickel reports, 2.5 times the amount of aid received by developing countries in 2012 was reappropriated by donor countries in the same year through debt payments and capital flight.26 Equally substantial, though more difficult to quantify, are subsidies in the form of human resources provided by low-income societies who raise, educate, and care for humans who then serve as cheap labor for corporate interests, or migrate to work in high-income societies. To limit the flow of value toward wealthy countries, Hickel proposes closing down secrecy jurisdictions, penalizing bankers and accountants who facilitate illicit outflows, and imposing global taxes on corporate incomes to eliminate incentives for shifting money around the world. He joins many others in the call to write off the excess debts of poor countries, among other justifications as compensation for the ecological and carbon debts owed to them by high-income countries.27', 'Moves toward global environmental justice start with working against climate breakdown. Reduced production and consumption will lead to reduced emissions. However, the degrowth fight against climate change does not rest with shrinking GDPs. Interactions among the proposals outlined here are vital: investments in GNDs that mobilize energy transitions and restore ecosystems that absorb carbon; guarantees of low-carbon public services to all; carbon fees and dividends; reduced working hours that reduce emissions; and support for lowcarbon community economies and lifestyles.', 'Related degrowth-minded proposals include a moratorium on new fossil fuel development; a ban of fossil fuel advertising; the phase-out of fossil fuel production, with just transition for workers in dependent industries; frequent flier levies; embargoes on any expansion of road networks and airports; policies for car-free cities; tight emissions standards for new cars and power stations; passive- house standards for new houses; and efficiency standards for rented properties.', 'In addition to curbing negative environmental impacts, the policies provided here also establish conditions for responding to an economic recession, where the objective from a degrowth perspective is not to re-launch growth, but to sustain wellbeing in the absence of growth. A GND can stimulate and shift employment to healthy parts of the economy that need development. Work-sharing can share diminishing employment among more workers. A Universal Care Income is vital for supporting people and letting them take care of themselves and dependents during economic dislocation, as well as floods, fires, storms, epidemics, and other forms of disaster that are intensifying with climate change. The significant decrease in oil prices, during the pandemic crisis makes it a good moment to implement a carbon tax.', 'Many policies known to reduce carbon emissions and other forms of environmental damage, as well as policies known to strengthen health or care commons, are thwarted by fears that they will slow down economies. To avoid sacrificing the world’s environmental and human health at the altar of growth, we seek to secure wellbeing and welfare without growth via the five path-breaking policy packages outlined in this chapter. Implementing these reforms is a tall order, and even taller in envisioned contexts of contraction, not stimulus and growth. Who will organize to see such a radical agenda through, and how? Who will be allies in this effort? What are the opportunities and barriers in current political environments? To these and other strategic questions we now turn.', '[[CHAPTER 5 BEGINS]]', 'Envisaging the future is important. Equally important is organizing movement from here to there. In this chapter we ask how degrowth-oriented transformations can be mobilized, by whom, and for whom. We explore openings and obstacles among a wave of cultural changes, socioeconomic and climate crises, civil society unrest, and political party dynamics. We then look at opportunities and challenges for building alliances among a range of actors, interests, and movements that might lead to various forms of mobilization.', 'Erik Olin Wright talks of three strategies for transformation: interstitial (building alternatives in the cracks of current systems), symbiotic (working within systems for reforms), and ruptural (disrupting or revolting against dominant systems).1 As we saw in Chapter 3, building interstitial alternatives is crucial to reducing dependence on economic growth and to performing everyday practices that shift common senses. We see promise in cooperatives, eco-communes, and other arrangements, which we do not conceive as exits from the system, but as purposeful practices that build common senses and political horizons oriented toward larger change. Systemic reforms like those described in Chapter 4 change the playing field to enable more people to make sense of needed changes, to live differently, and to contribute toward desired societies. Nonviolent actions, protests, uprisings, strikes, and other forms of ruptural conflict also play necessary roles in defending initiatives and advocating further reforms.', 'Our strategy, therefore, is a coevolutionary one that articulates personal, communitarian, and political action and innovation. To realize policies and sustain politics, you need a strong base of people for whom degrowth is not an abstract idea but what they do every day. So our strategy starts with supporting community economies that nourish the grassroots and strengthen identities and common senses for the long game of building and sustaining low-impact worlds.', 'While degrowth futures move away from class, racial, gender, and colonial hierarchies that evolved to support growth, they neither privilege nor exclude certain groups. Political subjects are formed though practice and conflicts, as they support community economies and practice common senses that prefigure alternatives for prosperity without growth.', 'Faced with accelerating climate breakdown, inequalities, and authoritarianism, the pace of culture change proposed here may seem unduly slow. Of course we must also enact urgent responses. However, even with a gradual and cumulative process, tangible outcomes do not have to be slow. Unpredictable events can create new conditions, open or close possibilities, and shine new light on what is most fundamental for sustaining societies. Cultural adaptation can reach tipping points, after which change is fast and disruptive. Some studies find that it takes 25 percent of a population to catalyze social change.2 Politics, Hannah Arendt has taught us, initiates the unexpected, the unprecedented. Within a few months, a solo “school strike for the climate” by a Swedish girl led to nationwide, then global, mobilizations that have impacted public opinion, political forums, and daily choices for a growing number of young (and not-so-young) people.', 'Openings Amid Consequences of Growth', 'Wright emphasizes the potential for social movements to seize opportunities amid unintended consequences of existing social orders. Climate crises open up extraordinary opportunities for mobilization around GNDs, carbon fees and dividends, and lifestyle changes. A majority of people in the UK, including almost half of Conservative voters, supports a radical program for a zerocarbon economy by 2030.3 Loss of employment due to changing technologies, or to health or climate crises, creates opportunities for demanding a basic care income or reductions in work hours, while devastating inequality and poverty raise the possibility of considering wealth taxes, salary ratios, and universal services. And the accumulation of consumer, mortgage, and student debts, as well as national debts, renders systems vulnerable to organized strikes against debt payments.', 'Cultural changes also open up possibilities. For decades, environmental movements have been advocating lifestyle changes, but suggestions that car-driving and meat-eating pose problems for human and environmental health were dismissed as fringe notions of hippies and radical green parties. Today, however, moving around by bicycle, engag- ing in sharing economies, and eating plant-based diets have become such common sense that even McDonald’s serves Beyond Meat Burgers. Whereas commercial and social media continue to promote competitive conspicuous consumption, these platforms are increasingly punctuated by worries about the sacrifices demanded by growth, concerning not only environmental damages, but also personal costs in the form of obsessions with money and appearance, debt, insecurities, loneliness, eating disorders, and addictions.', 'People around the world are searching for better ways of living and consuming: 70 percent of people surveyed in twenty-nine countries believe that overconsumption is putting our planet and society at risk, half say they could happily live without most of what they own, and respondents report that sharing everything from cars to textbooks and vacation homes has become commonplace.4 Such shifts in culture and common senses do not translate automatically into consistent personal practices or voting behaviors. But they do establish fertile ground.'] | [
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"But",
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] | [
"Crises can catalyze",
"changes, open cracks in dominant norms and expectations, and bring people together to reinvent",
"their relationships",
"between 2009 and 2016, many Greeks disoriented by prolonged crisis found meaning in cooperative projects",
"from urban gardens, time-banks, and collective art centers to solidarity clinics and food banks",
"The collapse of mass consumption",
"destabilized identities",
"long",
"experienced as natural",
"common experiences, such as mass occupation of public plazas or impromptu planting of gardens, acted as rites of passage for participants transitioning from a past no longer viable to a future yet",
"defined. In the practical work of producing new commons, people experiment with new selves and relations",
"amid",
"coronavirus",
"commons of mutual aid and care have exploded all over the world in projects that support the poor and vulnerable, care for doctors and care workers, or provide low-cost technological solutions to hospitals",
"In Puerto Rico, as a result of self-governing processes developed over thirty-five years around an anti-mining movement, everyday performances in common projects have nurtured common senses around nature, community, and democracy that have changed participants in ways that counter",
"common senses of growth",
"coevolution can happen when individuals innovate",
"and",
"perform new",
"relationships that prefigure political change",
"emerging networks become forces for institutional change",
"modelling and advocating different structures of governance.",
"if governments",
"invest",
"unheralded commons provide foundations for",
"economies oriented toward goals other than growth",
"a plurality of embodied common senses",
"always allow human individuals and communities to adapt their values and views of the world around them",
"enduring ethics and systems of community and environmental care that have been undervalued and exploited by market growth are giving rise to new forms of collaboration. Not isolated",
"or",
"utopias, these arrangements intertwine with existing economies",
"Barcelona",
"abounds with commoning arrangements. The",
"CIC",
"the COS health cooperative",
"the Phoenix Commons",
"Oakland",
"communal areas",
"Worldwide, hundreds of eco-communes, transition towns, co-living and co-housing communities are",
"gaining strength",
"Are we proposing to feed nine billion people with urban gardens, lodge everyone in co-housing, and raise the world’s children in neighborhood circles?",
"no",
"we encourage support for cooperative modes of production, consumption, and caring in order to complement and renew large-scale public arrangements and forms of private use or ownership",
"The goal is not to replace one monoculture with another. It is to create conditions that support the development of more vibrant realms of possibility with different rhythms, purposes, and scales. Today’s political systems promote and subsidize a growth-driven model",
"leaving other arrangements underappreciated",
"Our strategy is to re-order values and resources to support the development of diverse",
"processes",
"That diversity will be key to resilience and adaptation",
"Does the case for degrowth reject technological advancements",
"? On the contrary",
"large-scale high-tech production will continue",
"smaller processes, including those oriented toward purposes other than growth",
"are also strengthened by technological innovations.",
"Across Latin America, small farmers in agroecology organizations combine traditional practices with cutting-edge scientific knowledge",
"Timebankers in New Zealand use computer programs",
"Wikihouse democratizes the construction of sustainable, resource-light dwellings; OpenBionics produces open-source designs for robotic and bionic devices; and the RepRap community creates replicable designs for 3D printers",
"These examples integrate recent innovations in science and engineering with longstanding modes of human organization in small-scale, decentralized, and locally controlled production arrangements that strive to minimize hierarchy and exploitation.",
"policies",
"can establish fertile conditions",
"for cultivating common senses and identities",
"GNDs",
"invest in infrastructure and industry to sustainably meet the challenges of the twenty-first century",
"secure for all people for generations to come: clean air and water; climate and community resiliency; healthy food; access to nature; and a sustainable environment",
"GNDs",
"for degrowth",
"commit",
"to",
"rapid and massive deployment of renewable energy",
"decarbonization",
"the refurbishment and provision of new zero-carbon affordable housing",
"reforestation and ecological restoration",
"But degrowth goes further",
"promotes",
"less total energy",
"How can ambitious GND proposals be funded with",
"?",
"public finance",
"GND-specific bonds",
"through public green banks",
"Pension funds",
"and central banks",
"a reverse q",
"e",
"UBS",
"and",
"UBI",
"aim to establish conditions for all",
"to live with dignity and health",
"provide education and healthcare",
"together with affordable access to food, housing, and public transportation",
"Care Income",
"foster equity and solidarity by conceptualizing the universal income as an investment out of common wealth in the contributions and capacities of all of us to take care of ourselves, our kin, and others.",
"Universal basics support degrowth transformations by distributing",
"wealth",
"through means other than market",
"and by maintaining modest material security for everyone during transitions",
"These policies",
"help",
"transcend perceived conflicts",
"and",
"enhance people’s freedom to explore different lifestyles and to choose how to devote their time and their care.",
"Services such as water, energy, waste management, transportation, education, health, or childcare could be run as municipal or consumer cooperatives rather than for-profit businesses",
"systems like utilities and housing can be gradually re-conceptualized as common goods",
"produced and regenerated through collaborative governance",
"Spaces can be reclaimed for the public and",
"turned into commons through a range of interventions, including lifting earlier interventions designed to privatize and profit from public realms. Examples include converting unused lots into squares or parks",
"legislation, subsidies, and tax breaks currently designed to boost private profits can be realigned to support social and solidarity enterprises and cooperatives",
"Some of our most important commons are the sanitation, health, and care commons that provide resilience against disease and epidemics",
"Automation and artificial intelligence need not lead to job losses",
"Reducing",
"weekly work hours of people already employed opens up more opportunities for people seeking employment",
"This move mitigates",
"exhaustion among those who work too much",
"and insecurity among those who have too little work",
"Structural changes",
"in recent decades",
"have redirected most productivity gains to company profits and shareholder dividends",
"Government and corporate policies can reverse this trend, reducing working hours through longer paid vacations, parental and family-care leave, sabbaticals, shorter daily hours, four-day work weeks, or facilitation of part-time work",
"Legal safeguards and monitoring can support humane limits",
"Reduction of fossil fuels, fertilizers, and other environment-damaging inputs will cause productivity to fall in some areas, meaning that more hours of work will be needed to produce the same goods. This is where the degrowth goals of decreasing production and consumption come together with energy transition, fair employment, and human– environmental wellbeing. Cutting total working hours reduces environmental impacts, including carbon emissions",
"Carbon fee and dividend programs",
"work",
"to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and generate shared income",
"Successful implementation of carbon fees will lead to less carbon emissions",
"which is good for the planet, but also yield less cash dividends over time as carbon emissions decline. That foreseeable decline can be offset by scheduled increases in fees per unit",
"and",
"shifts in priorities for government expenditures. Simply ending subsidies for fossil fuel exploration",
"will liberate significant resources",
"As citizens and politicians increasingly question expenditures allocated with the underlying intention of driving GDP growth",
"corporate subsidies, pharmaceutical development, or defense spending",
"governments may redirect expenditures to",
"healthy, happy human beings",
"We need to stop taxing",
"work",
"and instead tax what destroys societies",
"pollution and inequality",
"Strategic taxes may be levied on water and air pollution, toxic wastes and emissions, or resource extraction. Taxes can help to moderate consumption of products unhealthy for the planet or its people: meat, sugary soft drinks, plastics, frequent flying",
"luxury taxes",
"may serve as sources of revenue, gestures of fairness, and means to discourage conspicuous consumption and resource use.",
"Inequality can be mitigated via",
"progressive taxes",
"progressive",
"taxes",
"like those introduced by the original New Deal",
"helped to shape a period of unusual economic equality and intergenerational mobility",
"Another suite of policies enabling fairer distribution of income include higher minimum and average wages, and rights of workers to organize and bargain",
"economies will become more equitable and harms that are taxed will diminish– all good for societies and environments",
"Related degrowth-minded proposals include a moratorium on new fossil fuel development; a ban of fossil fuel advertising; the phase-out of fossil fuel production, with just transition for workers in dependent industries",
"In addition to curbing negative",
"impacts, the policies provided here",
"establish conditions for responding to an economic recession, where the objective",
"is not to re-launch growth, but to sustain wellbeing in the absence of growth",
"A GND can stimulate and shift employment to healthy parts of the economy that need development. Work-sharing can share diminishing employment among more workers. A Universal Care Income is vital for supporting people and letting them take care of themselves and dependents during economic dislocation",
"Many policies",
"commons",
"are thwarted by fears that they will slow down economies.",
"the world’s",
"health at the altar of growth, we seek to secure wellbeing and welfare without growth",
"building",
"alternatives is crucial to reducing dependence on economic growth",
"We see promise in cooperatives, eco-communes, and other arrangements",
"Systemic reforms",
"change the playing field to enable",
"people to make sense of needed changes",
"live differently",
"and",
"contribute",
"To realize",
"and sustain politics, you need a strong base of people for whom degrowth is not",
"abstract",
"but what they do every day",
"Political subjects are formed though practice",
"Faced with accelerating climate breakdown, inequalities, and authoritarianism, the pace of culture change proposed here may seem",
"slow",
"However",
"tangible outcomes do not have to be slow. Unpredictable events",
"create new conditions",
"open",
"possibilities",
"and shine new light",
"Cultural adaptation can reach tipping points, after which change is fast and disruptive",
"it takes 25 percent of a population to catalyze social change",
"Politics",
"initiates the unexpected, the unprecedented",
"crises open up",
"opportunities for mobilization",
"Loss of employment",
"creates opportunities for demanding",
"income or reductions in work hours",
"Such shifts",
"do not translate automatically into consistent",
"behaviors. But they do establish fertile ground"
] | [
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] | 1,577,865,600 | 13 |
acb97f2d70baad6484f7e349c89d94695843928cc312bb391da68e14848406b1 | a) MATERIALS---still unsustainable and finite---causes resource wars | null | Lorenz T. Keyßer & Manfred Lenzen 21, Keyßer, ISA, School of Physics A28, The University of Sydney; Lenzen, Department of Environmental Systems Science, Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zürich, “1.5 °C Degrowth Scenarios Suggest the Need for New Mitigation Pathways,” Nature Communications, vol. 12, no. 1, 1, Nature Publishing Group, 05/11/2021, p. 2676 | there is no ev for absolute decoupling renewable deployment is unlikely to contribute material reduction renewables have higher material footprint risks metal supply shortages extraction drives conflicts unlikely compatible with growing | there is no empirical ev idence for the possibility of an absolute decoupling between GDP and aggregate material use central for climate mitigation reduction of environmental impacts and prevention of biodiversity loss Large-scale renewable deployment is unlikely to contribute to material use reduction as renewables have a considerably higher material footprint This may also raise critical risks of metal supply shortages material extraction drives conflicts with local communities to be more sustainable, the global material footprint would need to be significantly scaled down which is highly unlikely to be compatible with growing GDP These points justify considering the reliance upon high speed and scale of the renewable energy transition a substantial risk for feasibility and sustainability . | no empirical ev absolute material central renewable deployment unlikely material reduction higher metal conflicts local communities significantly scaled down highly unlikely compatible with growing GDP substantial risk for feasibility and sustainability | ['Third, there is no empirical evidence for the possibility of an absolute decoupling between GDP and aggregate material use5,6,7. The reduction of the latter is central for climate mitigation38, the reduction of environmental impacts5 and prevention of biodiversity loss39. Large-scale renewable energy deployment is unlikely to contribute to material use reduction5,6,7,34, as renewables have a considerably higher material footprint than fossil fuels6,34. This may also raise critical risks of metal supply shortages34. Further, material extraction drives conflicts with local communities around the world, especially in the global South34,40. In order to be more sustainable, the global material footprint would need to be significantly scaled down, to ~50 billion tonnes per year (recognising the limits of aggregate indicators5), which is highly unlikely to be compatible with growing GDP5,6,7,39. These three points justify considering the reliance upon high speed and scale of the renewable energy transition a substantial risk for feasibility and sustainability.'] | [
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2399de126d3f67cdb4862568057d53b8092807815bfc520d83a962583d1edaed | Extinction | null | Michael Klare 21, professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College and the author of "Resource Wars," "Blood and Oil," and "Rising Powers, Shrinking Planet: The New Geopolitics of Energy,” “Will there be resource wars in our renewable energy future?,” Salon, 5/31/21, https://www.salon.com/2021/05/31/will-there-be-resource-wars-in-our-renewable-energy-future_partner/ | while the sun are renewable, the materials are anything but . Some scarcer than petroleum, suggesting global strife over resources Lithium Cobalt REEs encounter severe geopolitical problems nations begin fighting over critical minerals would lead to a civilizational fate worse than death | it's tempting to conclude that the days when competition over finite supplies of energy was recurring will draw to a close think again : while the sun and wind are renewable, the materials are anything but . Some are scarcer than petroleum, suggesting global strife over resources may not disappear Lithium is rarely easily mineable approximately 58% comes from Australia Cobalt is another key component rarely found in unique deposits almost entirely produced thanks to copper mining in the violent D R C 70% of REEs come from China the green-energy transition may encounter severe geopolitical problems the most militarily powerful nation can supply itself with only tiny percentages Declining ore quality is also a concern extracting often entails the use of acids and toxic substances nations begin fighting over supplies of critical minerals , just as once over oil that would lead to a civilizational fate worse than death | think again materials anything but scarcer global strife over resources may not disappear Lithium rarely 58% Australia Cobalt rarely entirely copper violent D R C 70% of REEs China severe geopolitical problems tiny percentages quality acids toxic substances fighting supplies of critical minerals , just as once over oil civilizational fate worse than death | ['Thanks to its very name — renewable energy — we can picture a time in the not-too-distant future when our need for non-renewable fuels like oil, natural gas, and coal will vanish. Indeed, the Biden administration has announced a breakthrough target of 2035 for fully eliminating U.S. reliance on those non-renewable fuels for the generation of electricity. That would be accomplished by "deploying carbon-pollution-free electricity-generating resources," primarily the everlasting power of the wind and sun.', "With other nations moving in a similar direction, it's tempting to conclude that the days when competition over finite supplies of energy was a recurring source of conflict will soon draw to a close. Unfortunately, think again: while the sun and wind are indeed infinitely renewable, the materials needed to convert those resources into electricity — minerals like cobalt, copper, lithium, nickel, and the rare-earth elements, or REEs — are anything but. Some of them, in fact, are far scarcer than petroleum, suggesting that global strife over vital resources may not, in fact, disappear in the Age of Renewables.", "To appreciate this unexpected paradox, it's necessary to explore how wind and solar power are converted into usable forms of electricity and propulsion. Solar power is largely collected by photovoltaic cells, often deployed in vast arrays, while the wind is harvested by giant turbines, typically deployed in extensive wind farms. To use electricity in transportation, cars and trucks must be equipped with advanced batteries capable of holding a charge over long distances. Each one of these devices usessubstantial amounts of copper for electrical transmission, as well as a variety of other non-renewable minerals. Those wind turbines, for instance, require manganese, molybdenum, nickel, zinc, and rare-earth elements for their electrical generators, while electric vehicles (EVs) need cobalt, graphite, lithium, manganese, and rare earths for their engines and batteries.", 'At present, with wind and solar power accounting for only about 7% of global electricity generation and electric vehicles making up less than 1% of the cars on the road, the production of those minerals is roughly adequate to meet global demand. If, however, the U.S. and other countries really do move toward a green-energy future of the kind envisioned by President Biden, the demand for them will skyrocket and global output will fall far short of anticipated needs.', 'According to a recent study by the International Energy Agency (IEA), "The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions," the demand for lithium in 2040 could be 50 times greater than today and for cobalt and graphite 30 times greater if the world moves swiftly to replace oil-driven vehicles with EVs. Such rising demand will, of course, incentivize industry to develop new supplies of such minerals, but potential sources of them are limited and the process of bringing them online will be costly and complicated. In other words, the world could face significant shortages of critical materials. ("As clean energy transitions accelerate globally," the IEA report noted ominously, "and solar panels, wind turbines, and electric cars are deployed on a growing scale, these rapidly growing markets for key minerals could be subject to price volatility, geopolitical influence, and even disruptions to supply.")', "And here's a further complication: for a number of the most critical materials, including lithium, cobalt, and those rare-earth elements, production is highly concentrated in just a few countries, a reality that could lead to the sort of geopolitical struggles that accompanied the world's dependence on a few major sources of oil. According to the IEA, just one country, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), currently supplies more than 80% of the world's cobalt, and another — China — 70% of its rare-earth elements. Similarly, lithium production is largely in two countries, Argentina and Chile, which jointly account for nearly 80% of world supply, while four countries — Argentina, Chile, the DRC, and Peru — provide most of our copper. In other words, such future supplies are far more concentrated in far fewer lands than petroleum and natural gas, leading IEA analysts to worry about future struggles over the world's access to them.", 'From Oil to Lithium: the Geopolitical Implications of the Electric-Car Revolution', 'The role of petroleum in shaping global geopolitics is well understood. Ever since oil became essential to world transportation — and so to the effective functioning of the world\'s economy — it has been viewed for obvious reasons as a "strategic" resource. Because the largest concentrations of petroleum were located in the Middle East, an area historically far removed from the principal centers of industrial activity in Europe and North America and regularly subject to political convulsions, the major importing nations long sought to exercise some control over that region\'s oil production and export. This, of course, led to resource imperialism of a high order, beginning after World War I when Britain and the other European powers contended for colonial control of the oil-producing parts of the Persian Gulf region. It continued after World War II, when the United States entered that competition in a big way.', 'For the United States, ensuring access to Middle Eastern oil became a strategic priority after the "oil shocks" of 1973 and 1979 — the first caused by an Arab oil embargo that was a reprisal for Washington\'s support of Israel in that year\'s October War; the second by a disruption of supplies caused by the Islamic Revolution in Iran. In response to endless lines at American gas stations and the subsequent recessions, successive presidents pledged to protect oil imports by "any means necessary," including the use of armed force. And that very stance led President George H.W. Bush to wage the first Gulf War against Saddam Hussein\'s Iraq in 1991 and his son to invade that same country in 2003.', "In 2021, the United States is no longer as dependent on Middle Eastern oil, given how extensively domestic deposits of petroleum-laden shale and other sedimentary rocks are being exploited by fracking technology. Still, the connection between oil use and geopolitical conflict has hardly disappeared. Most analysts believe that petroleum will continue to supply a major share of global energy for decades to come, and that's certain to generate political and military struggles over the remaining supplies. Already, for instance, conflict has broken out over disputed offshore supplies in the South and East China Seas, and some analysts predict a struggle for the control of untapped oil and mineral deposits in the Arctic region as well.", "Here, then, is the question of the hour: Will an explosion in electric-car ownership change all this? EV market share is already growing rapidly and projected to reach 15% of worldwide sales by 2030. The major automakers are investing heavily in such vehicles, anticipating a surge in demand. There were around 370 EV models available for sale worldwide in 2020 — a 40% increase from 2019 — and major automakers have revealed plans to make an additional 450 models available by 2022. In addition, General Motors has announced its intention to completely phase out conventional gasoline and diesel vehicles by 2035, while Volvo's CEO has indicated that the company would only sell EVs by 2030.", "It's reasonable to assume that this shift will only gain momentum, with profound consequences for the global trade in resources. According to the IEA, a typical electric car requires six times the mineral inputs of a conventional oil-powered vehicle. These include the copper for electrical wiring plus the cobalt, graphite, lithium, and nickel needed to ensure battery performance, longevity, and energy density (the energy output per unit of weight). In addition, rare-earth elements will be essential for the permanent magnets installed in EV motors. ", "Lithium, a primary component of lithium-ion batteries used in most EVs, is the lightest known metal. Although present both in clay deposits and ore composites, it's rarely found in easily mineable concentrations, though it can also be extracted from brine in areas like Bolivia's Salar de Uyuni, the world's largest salt flat. At present, approximately 58% of the world's lithium comes from Australia, another 20% from Chile, 11% from China, 6% from Argentina, and smaller percentages from elsewhere. A U.S. firm, Lithium Americas, is about to undertake the extraction of significant amounts of lithium from a clay deposit in northern Nevada, but is meeting resistance from local ranchers and Native Americans, who fear the contamination of their water supplies.", "Cobalt is another key component of lithium-ion batteries. It's rarely found in unique deposits and most often acquired as a byproduct of copper and nickel mining. Today, it's almost entirely produced thanks to copper mining in the violent, chaotic Democratic Republic of the Congo, mostly in what's known as the copper belt of Katanga Province, a region which once sought to break away from the rest of the country and still harbors secessionist impulses.", "Rare-earth elements encompass a group of 17 metallic substances scattered across the Earth's surface but rarely found in mineable concentrations. Among them, several are essential for future green-energy solutions, including dysprosium, lanthanum, neodymium, and terbium. When used as alloys with other minerals, they help perpetuate the magnetization of electrical motors under high-temperature conditions, a key requirement for electric vehicles and wind turbines. At present, approximately 70% of REEs come from China, perhaps 12% from Australia, and 8% from the U.S.", "A mere glance at the location of such concentrations suggests that the green-energy transition envisioned by President Biden and other world leaders may encounter severe geopolitical problems, not unlike those generated in the past by reliance on oil. As a start, the most militarily powerful nation on the planet, the United States, can supply itself with only tiny percentages of REEs, as well as other critical minerals like nickel and zinc needed for advanced green technologies. While Australia, a close ally, will undoubtedly be an important supplier of some of them, China, already increasingly viewed as an adversary, is crucial when it comes to REEs, and the Congo, one of the most conflict-plagued nations on the planet, is the leading producer of cobalt. So don't for a second imagine that the transition to a renewable-energy future will either be easy or conflict-free. ", 'The Crunch to Come', 'Faced with the prospect of inadequate or hard-to-access supplies of such critical materials, energy strategists are already calling for major efforts to develop new sources in as many locations as possible. "Today\'s supply and investment plans for many critical minerals fall well short of what is needed to support an accelerated deployment of solar panels, wind turbines and electric vehicles," said Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency. "These hazards are real, but they are surmountable. The response from policymakers and companies will determine whether critical minerals remain a vital enabler for clean energy transitions or become a bottleneck in the process."', 'As Birol and his associates at the IEA have made all too clear, however, surmounting the obstacles to increased mineral production will be anything but easy. To begin with, launching new mining ventures can be extraordinarily expensive and entail numerous risks. Mining firms may be willing to invest billions of dollars in a country like Australia, where the legal framework is welcoming and where they can expect protection against future expropriation or war, but many promising ore sources lie in countries like the DRC, Myanmar, Peru, and Russia where such conditions hardly apply. For example, the current turmoil in Myanmar, a major producer of certain rare-earth elements, has already led to worries about their future availability and sparked a rise in prices.', 'Declining ore quality is also a concern. When it comes to mineral sites, this planet has been thoroughly scavenged for them, sometimes since the early Bronze Age, and many of the best deposits have long since been discovered and exploited. "In recent years, ore quality has continued to fall across a range of commodities," the IEA noted in its report on critical minerals and green technology. "For example, the average copper ore grade in Chile declined by 30% over the past 15 years. Extracting metal content from lower-grade ores requires more energy, exerting upward pressure on production costs, greenhouse gas emissions, and waste volumes."', "In addition, extracting minerals from underground rock formations often entails the use of acids and other toxic substances and typically requires vast amounts of water, which are contaminated after use. This has become ever more of a problem since the enactment of environmental-protection legislation and the mobilization of local communities. In many parts of the world, as in Nevada when it comes to lithium, new mining and ore-processing efforts are going to encounter increasingly fierce local opposition. When, for example, the Lynas Corporation, an Australian firm, sought to evade Australia's environmental laws by shipping ores from its Mount Weld rare-earths mine to Malaysia for processing, local activists there mounted a protracted campaign to prevent it from doing so.", "For Washington, perhaps no problem is more challenging, when it comes to the availability of critical materials for a green revolution, than this country's deteriorating relationship with Beijing. After all, China currently provides 70% of the world's rare-earth supplies and harbors significant deposits of other key minerals as well. No less significant, that country is responsible for the refining and processing of many key materials mined elsewhere. In fact, when it comes to mineral processing, the figures are astonishing. China may not produce significant amounts of cobalt or nickel, but it does account for approximately 65% of the world's processed cobalt and 35% of its processed nickel. And while China produces 11% of the world's lithium, it's responsible for nearly 60% of processed lithium. When it comes to rare-earth elements, however, China is dominant in a staggering way. Not only does it provide 60% of the world's raw materials, but nearly 90% of processed REEs.", 'To put the matter simply, there is no way the United States or other countries can undertake a massive transition from fossil fuels to a renewables-based economy without engaging economically with China. Undoubtedly, efforts will be made to reduce the degree of that reliance, but there\'s no realistic prospect of eliminating dependence on China for rare earths, lithium, and other key materials in the foreseeable future. If, in other words, the U.S. were to move from a modestly Cold-War-like stance toward Beijing to an even more hostile one, and if it were to engage in further Trumpian-style attempts to "decouple" its economy from that of the People\'s Republic, as advocated by many "China hawks" in Congress, there\'s no question about it: the Biden administration would have to abandon its plans for a green-energy future.', "It's possible, of course, to imagine a future in which nations begin fighting over the world's supplies of critical minerals, just as they once fought over oil. At the same time, it's perfectly possible to conceive of a world in which countries like ours simply abandoned their plans for a green-energy future for lack of adequate raw materials and reverted to the oil wars of the past. On an already overheating planet, however, that would lead to a civilizational fate worse than death. "] | [
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cb52ad1be4127bf7943d935bd057963d0c63f152d741f04663b323aaaa3fca4b | AND biod loss---extinction | null | Jason Hickel 21, economic anthropologist, Fulbright Scholar and Fellow of the Royal Society of Arts, “Three - Will Technology Save Us?,” Less Is More: How Degrowth Will Save the World, Random House, 02/25/21, pp. 115–149 | The transition require extraction of metals and minerals exacerbate crisis of overextraction drive defo eco collapse and biod loss this is just by 2050 more we grow, the worse a 100%-clean system would do Exactly what we are doing with fossil fuels: raze forests, trawl fish, mine mountains, build roads, expand industrial farming, and send waste to landfill which our planet can no longer sustain Escaping the frying pan of climate doesn’t help if we end up in the flames of eco collapse | Even if this wasn’t a problem, there’s yet another issue we have to face up to – to do with clean energy itself while sunshine and wind are obviously clean, the infrastructure we need to capture it is not. Far from it . The transition to renewables is going to require a dramatic increase in the extraction of metals and rare-earth minerals , with real ecological and social costs. Researchers modelled the increase in material extraction that would be required to build enough solar and wind utilities to produce an annual output of about 7 terawatts of electricity by 2050. That’s enough to power a bit less than half of the global economy. By doubling the World Bank figures, we can estimate what it will take to get all the way to zero emissions and the results are staggering: 34 million metric tons of copper, 40 million tons of lead, 50 million tons of zinc, 162 million tons of aluminium, and no less than 4.8 billion tons of iron. the transition to renewables will require a massive increase over existing levels of material extraction. For neodymium extraction will need to rise by nearly 35% over current levels Higher-end estimates reported by the World Bank suggest it could double The same is true of silver up 38% and perhaps as much as 105%. Demand for indium, also essential to solar technology, will more than triple and could end up skyrocketing by 920%. And then there are all the batteries a n eye-watering 2,700% increase That’s just for electricity We also need vehicles The problem here is not that we’re going to run out although that may indeed become a concern. The real issue is that this will exacerbate an already existing crisis of overextraction . Mining has already become a big drive r of defo restation, eco system collapse and biod iversity loss around the world. If we’re not careful, growing demand for renewable energy will exacerbate this crisis significantly . And all of this is just to power the global economy by 2050 Things become even more extreme when we start accounting for growth into the future material extraction for renewables will become all the more aggressive – and the more we grow, the worse it will get Even if we had a 100%-clean -energy system , what would we do with it? Exactly what we are doing with fossil fuels: raze more forests, trawl more fish, mine more mountains, build more roads, expand industrial farming, and send more waste to landfill – all of which have ecological consequences our planet can no longer sustain We will do these things because our economic system demands that we grow production and consumption at an exponential rate. In fact, the whole idea behind using clean energy to power a ‘green growth’ system is so that we can keep growing material production and consumption. Otherwise why would we need to keep growing energy demand? Switching to clean energy will do nothing to slow down all these other forms of ecological breakdown. Escaping the frying pan of climate disaster doesn’t help us much if we end up hopping in to the flames of eco logical collapse . | clean energy itself wind infrastructure we need to capture it is not. Far from it metals rare-earth minerals results are staggering: 34 million metric tons of copper, 40 million tons of lead, 50 million tons of zinc, 162 million tons of aluminium, and no less than 4.8 billion tons of iron. massive increase neodymium nearly 35% over current levels double silver could skyrocketing by 920%. batteries a eye-watering 2,700% increase electricity vehicles run out real exacerbate existing crisis of overextraction already drive defo eco collapse biod loss renewable exacerbate this crisis significantly 2050 more growth future more we grow, the worse it will get Exactly what we are doing with fossil fuels: raze more forests, trawl more fish, mine more mountains, build more roads, expand industrial farming, and send more waste to landfill – all of which have ecological consequences our planet can no longer sustain Escaping the frying pan of climate disaster doesn’t help us much if we end up hopping in to the flames of eco collapse | ['Even if this wasn’t a problem, there’s yet another issue we have to face up to – to do with clean energy itself. When we hear the phrase ‘clean energy’ it normally calls to mind happy, innocent images of warm sunshine and fresh wind. But while sunshine and wind are obviously clean, the infrastructure we need to capture it is not. Far from it. The transition to renewables is going to require a dramatic increase in the extraction of metals and rare-earth minerals, with real ecological and social costs. In 2017, the World Bank released a report offering the first comprehensive look at this question.18 Researchers modelled the increase in material extraction that would be required to build enough solar and wind utilities to produce an annual output of about 7 terawatts of electricity by 2050. That’s enough to power a bit less than half of the global economy. By doubling the World Bank figures, we can estimate what it will take to get all the way to zero emissions (not including a little bit of hydropower, geothermal and nuclear to top it off) – and the results are staggering: 34 million metric tons of copper, 40 million tons of lead, 50 million tons of zinc, 162 million tons of aluminium, and no less than 4.8 billion tons of iron.', 'In some cases, the transition to renewables will require a massive increase over existing levels of material extraction. For neodymium – an essential element in wind turbines – extraction will need to rise by nearly 35% over current levels. Higher-end estimates reported by the World Bank suggest it could double. The same is true of silver, which is a critical ingredient in solar panels. Silver extraction will go up 38% and perhaps as much as 105%. Demand for indium, also essential to solar technology, will more than triple and could end up skyrocketing by 920%.', 'And then there are all the batteries we’re going to need for power storage. To keep energy flowing when the sun isn’t shining and the wind isn’t blowing will require enormous batteries at the grid level. This means 40 million tons of lithium – an eye-watering 2,700% increase over current levels of extraction.', 'That’s just for electricity. We also need to think about vehicles. In 2019, a group of leading British scientists submitted a letter to the UK’s Committee on Climate Change outlining their concerns about the ecological impact of electric cars.19 They agree, of course, that we need to end the sale and use of combustion engines and switch to electric vehicles as quickly as possible. But they pointed out that replacing the world’s projected fleet of 2 billion vehicles is going to require an explosive increase in mining: global annual extraction of neodymium and dysprosium will go up by another 70%, annual extraction of copper will more than double, and cobalt will need to increase by a factor of almost four – all for the entire period between now and 2050. We need to switch to electric cars, yes; but ultimately we need to radically reduce the number of cars we use.', 'The problem here is not that we’re going to run out of key minerals – although that may indeed become a concern. The real issue is that this will exacerbate an already existing crisis of overextraction. Mining has already become a big driver of deforestation, ecosystem collapse and biodiversity loss around the world. If we’re not careful, growing demand for renewable energy will exacerbate this crisis significantly.', 'Take silver, for instance. Mexico is home to the Peñasquito mine, one of the biggest silver mines in the world. Covering nearly 40 square miles, the operation is staggering in its scale: a sprawling open-cast complex ripped into the mountains, flanked by two waste dumps each a mile long, and a tailings dam full of toxic sludge held back by a wall that’s 7 miles around and as high as a fifty-storey skyscraper. This mine will produce 11,000 tons of silver in ten years before its reserves, the biggest in the world, are gone.20 To transition the global economy to renewables, we need to commission up to 130 more mines on the scale of Peñasquito. Just for silver.', 'Lithium is another ecological disaster. It takes 500,000 gallons of water to produce a single ton of lithium. Even at present levels of extraction this is causing real problems. In the Andes, where most of the world’s lithium is located, mining companies are burning through the water tables and leaving farmers with nothing to irrigate their crops. Many have had no choice but to abandon their land altogether. Meanwhile, chemical leaks from lithium mines have poisoned rivers from Chile to Argentina, Nevada to Tibet, killing off whole freshwater ecosystems. The lithium boom has barely started, and it’s already a catastrophe.21', 'And all of this is just to power the global economy by 2050. Things become even more extreme when we start accounting for growth into the future. As energy demand continues to rise, material extraction for renewables will become all the more aggressive – and the more we grow, the worse it will get. Even after achieving a full energy transition, to keep the global economy growing at projected rates would mean doubling the total global stock of solar panels, wind turbines and batteries every thirty or forty years, for ever.', 'It’s important to keep in mind that most of the key materials for the energy transition are located in the global South. Parts of Latin America, Africa and Asia are likely to become the target of a new scramble for resources, and some countries may become victims of new forms of colonisation. It happened in the sixteenth, seventeenth and eighteenth centuries with the hunt for gold and silver from South America. In the nineteenth century, it was land for cotton and sugar plantations in the Caribbean. In the twentieth century, it was diamonds from South Africa, cobalt from the Democratic Republic of Congo, and oil from the Middle East. It’s not difficult to imagine that the scramble for renewables might become similarly violent.', 'If we don’t take precautions, clean energy firms could become as destructive as fossil fuel companies – buying off politicians, trashing ecosystems, lobbying against environmental regulations, even assassinating community leaders who stand in their way, a tragedy that is already unfolding.22 This is important. Progressives who promote the idea of a Green New Deal or other plans for rapid energy transition also tend to promote values of social and ecological justice. If we want the transition to be just, we need to recognise that we cannot increase our use of renewable energy indefinitely.', 'Some hope that nuclear power will help us get around these problems – and surely it will need to be part of the mix. But nuclear comes with its own constraints. The main problem is that it takes so long to get new power plants up and running that they can play only a small role in getting us to zero emissions by the middle of the century. Even in the longer term, some scientists worry that nuclear can’t be scaled up beyond about 1 terawatt.23 Moreover, if for whatever reason we don’t manage to stabilise the climate – a real possibility – nuclear sites will be vulnerable to severe storms, rising seas and other disasters that could turn them into radiation bombs. With climate breakdown bearing down on us, relying too much on nuclear could become a dangerous gamble.', 'As for fusion power – the running joke is that engineers have been saying it’s a decade away for about six decades now. While we have managed to create successful fusion reactions, the problem is that the process requires more energy than it produces. A big fusion experiment presently under way in France may be close to solving that problem (and that’s a big maybe), but even the most optimistic projections indicate that it won’t happen for another ten years. It would take another decade after that to get fusion power to the grid, and many more decades to scale it up. So while the prospects are exciting, the record so far is not encouraging, and in any case the timeline is too long. We may have fusion power sometime this century, but we certainly can’t rely on it to keep us within the safe carbon budget. Without a miraculous technological breakthrough, the energy transition is going to need to focus mostly on solar and wind.', 'None of this is to say we shouldn’t pursue a rapid transition to renewable energy. We absolutely must, and urgently. But if we want the transition to be technically feasible, ecologically coherent and socially just, we need to disabuse ourselves of the fantasy that we can carry on growing aggregate energy demand at existing rates. We must take a different approach.', 'The planet remade', 'In the face of this evidence, those who insist on continued growth have been turning to increasingly outlandish ideas – not just BECCS but a growing menu of science-fiction techno-fixes based on large-scale geoengineering. Most of these schemes are so difficult and expensive to implement that you might as well just swallow the cost of actually reducing emissions instead. But there’s one that stands out from the crowd, and which has attracted significant attention. It’s called solar radiation management.', 'The idea is to use a fleet of jets to inject aerosols into the stratosphere, forming a giant veil around the Earth to reflect sunlight and therefore cool the planet. It’s relatively cheap and easy to do. So easy, in fact, that scientists worry that rogue agents – say, a meddling billionaire or a desperate island state that’s about to go underwater – could pull it off single-handedly. A number of governments are commissioning research on solar radiation management, and the idea has been celebrated by fossil fuel executives who see it as a way to preserve their business model.', 'But it’s not without its risks. Existing models suggest it could end up tearing holes in the ozone layer, slow photosynthesis to the point of decreasing crop yields, and irreversibly alter global rainfall patterns and weather systems – mostly to the detriment of the global South. Jonathan Proctor, a scientist who studies solar radiation management, says ‘the side effects of treatment are as bad as the original disease’. Janos Pasztor, another expert in this field, points out that the consequences could end up being even worse than we’re able to predict: ‘The global atmosphere is unbelievably complex … we have advanced computer modelling with supercomputers, but we still don’t really know how to model it.’24', 'Perhaps the biggest problem, though, is that aerosols don’t last long in the stratosphere, so for the plan to work that fleet of jets would have to be at it constantly. And if for whatever reason they stopped, we’d be in real trouble: global temperatures would shoot up again at a rapid pace, rising several degrees within a single decade. This sudden heating, known as ‘termination shock’, would leave countries with little time to adapt. Ecosystems would fall under tremendous strain and huge numbers of species would be wiped out.25 Scientists regard this approach to be too risky to implement, and – like all geo-engineering schemes – a dangerous distraction from the objective of cutting emissions fast.', 'It’s worth pausing to reflect on the growing fascination with geoengineering. What’s interesting about it is that it embodies the very same logic that got us into trouble in the first place: the idea that the living planet, rendered as mere ‘nature’, is nothing but a set of passive materials that can be subdued, conquered and controlled. Geo-engineering represents dualism taken to astonishing new extremes, unimaginable by Bacon and Descartes, where the planet itself must be bent to the will of man so that capitalist growth can continue indefinitely. The fatal flaw of geo-engineering is that it seeks to solve the ecological crisis with the very same thinking – the very same hubris – that created it in the first place. But perhaps more immediately, the problem with geo-engineering is that it is ecologically incoherent. Solar radiation management is only a partial response to the crisis we face. It would do nothing to slow the pace of ocean acidification, or deforestation, or soil depletion, or mass extinction. And this brings us to the next point.', 'Out of the frying pan, into the flames', 'Let’s pretend, just for the sake of argument, that none of this was a problem. Put aside the evidence for a moment and imagine that we somehow manage to achieve a rapid transition to clean energy while still growing the global economy, and that we can continue growing energy demand indefinitely without worrying about the material extraction it will entail or the pressure it will place on already-exploited regions of the world. Let’s say we invent fusion power tomorrow and scale it up in a decade. Surely such a scenario meets the requirements for green growth, right?', 'The problem with this vision is that it misses one key, unavoidable point: emissions are only one part of the crisis. In addition to climate breakdown, we are already overshooting a number of other planetary boundaries, driven by ever-increasing extraction from the Earth. The problem isn’t just the type of energy we’re using; it’s what we are doing with it.', 'Even if we had a 100%-clean-energy system, what would we do with it? Exactly what we are doing with fossil fuels: raze more forests, trawl more fish, mine more mountains, build more roads, expand industrial farming, and send more waste to landfill – all of which have ecological consequences our planet can no longer sustain. We will do these things because our economic system demands that we grow production and consumption at an exponential rate. In fact, the whole idea behind using clean energy to power a ‘green growth’ system is so that we can keep growing material production and consumption. Otherwise why would we need to keep growing energy demand?', 'Switching to clean energy will do nothing to slow down all these other forms of ecological breakdown. Escaping the frying pan of climate disaster doesn’t help us much if we end up hopping into the flames of ecological collapse.'] | [
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a507e5828ea70e099e064c9617b3e7247e0f7f9232f45809f27a0b86665284e3 | b) They’re ADDITIVE NOT COMPETITIVE | null | Mastini et al. 21, ICTA-UAB, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, “A Green New Deal without Growth?,” Ecological Economics, vol. 179, 01/01/2021, p. 106832 | new energy added without removing older over the past 50 years each unit of non fossil sources displaced less than one-tenth of a unit of fossil electricity | new energy sources have added more energy without removing older sources the discovery of oil as an energy source has not replaced coal, but simply added to growing coal use Historical patterns suggest that past ‘energy transitions’ should be more accurately described as ‘energy additions’ The average trend in many nations around the world over the past 50 years shows that each unit of electricity generated by non fossil -fuel sources displaced less than one-tenth of a unit of fossil -fuel-generated electricity | more removing older sources additions’ 50 years unit displaced less than one-tenth of a unit of fossil -fuel-generated electricity | ['Degrowth scholars reject also the assumption that the deployment of renewable energy is sufficient on its own to displace fossil fuels in energy production. Historically, new energy sources have added more energy without removing older sources: for instance the discovery of oil as an energy source has not replaced coal, but simply added to growing coal use (Fressoz and Bonneuil, 2013). Historical patterns suggest that past ‘energy transitions’ should be more accurately described as ‘energy additions’ (York and Bell, 2019). The average trend in many nations around the world over the past 50 years shows that each unit of electricity generated by non fossil-fuel sources displaced less than one-tenth of a unit of fossil-fuel-generated electricity (York, 2012). Hence, in the context of climate change mitigation, some degrowth advocates have proposed – along with a decline in energy consumption at the societal level – a cap on the total emissions that a country is allowed to generate (Kallis, 2015; Marcellesi, 2012; Daly, 2013).'] | [
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ddc10a79617f23ab0c62f01cdaf0d037db19b8c7b35a152c81e97b6569e9e06b | c) LOWER EROI | null | Mastini et al. 21, ICTA-UAB, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, “A Green New Deal without Growth?,” Ecological Economics, vol. 179, 01/01/2021, p. 106832 | degrowth questions renewable energy EROI is lower than fossil fuels drop to 3:1 less than the 11:1 necessary for a growing economy | degrowth also questions the suitability of renewable energy to fuel economic growth. GDP growth is driven by an increase in energy use derived from energy-dense sources that are abundant and cheap to ensure economic growth in the long run it is necessary to increase energy supplies However, the EROI for renewable energy sources is lower than that of fossil fuels if renewables increased average EROI would drop to 3:1 when accounting for the energy required to extract and build the infrastructure, which is less than the 11:1 deemed necessary for a growing economy | renewable energy supplies EROI lower than that of fossil fuels drop to 3:1 less than the 11:1 deemed necessary for a growing economy | ['The degrowth literature also questions the suitability of renewable energy to fuel economic growth. GDP growth is driven by an increase in energy use derived from energy-dense sources that are abundant and cheap (Kallis and Sager, 2017). Consequently, to ensure economic growth in the long run it is necessary to increase energy supplies and/or the rate of energy efficiency (Warr and Ayres, 2010). However, the EROI (the ratio of the amount of usable energy delivered from a particular energy resource to the amount of usable energy used to obtain that energy resource) for renewable energy sources – between 10:1 and 20:1 – is lower than that of fossil fuels (Murphy and Hall, 2010). Capellán-Pérez et al. (2018) simulate that if renewables increased from 15% to 50% by 2050 average EROI would drop to 3:1 when accounting for the energy required to extract and build the infrastructure, which is less than the 11:1 deemed necessary for a growing economy (Fizaine and Court, 2016).'] | [
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ad945d11adae1f8292f5244c7778d13137fdec9a2f8869398f7c5733a13006bd | That does NOT make the practice ‘prohibited.’ | null | Maggie Gardner 20, Associate Professor of Law, Cornell Law School, “Dangerous Citations,” 95 N.Y.U.L. Rev. 1619, Lexis | judge rules of thumb critique the practice But when traced back , the decisions acknowledged that is not a prohibited practice ," just a disfavored one because it makes the court review reasonableness | judge s have used rules of thumb it is common for judges to critique the practice of "block billing," But when those chains are traced back , the decisions acknowledged that block billing " is not a prohibited practice ," just a disfavored one because it makes the court review the reasonableness | judge rules of thumb critique practice traced back acknowledged not a prohibited practice disfavored makes the court review the reasonableness | ['Or to take a more procedural example, judges have used rules of thumb to simplify the discretionary but tedious analysis of attorney fee awards. 210 For example, it is common for judges to critique the practice of "block billing," or not identifying the discrete amount of time used for each attorney task. Some judges have relied on district court precedent to assert that block-billed time should be excluded from fee award calculations altogether, regardless of the relevance of the tasks involved. 211 But when those citation chains are traced back, the prior decisions had instead acknowledged that block billing "is not a prohibited practice," just a disfavored one because it makes the court\'s effort to review the reasonableness of requested fees more difficult. 212It is thus within the judge\'s discretion to decide how to evaluate block-billed time. 213When that nuance is dropped in later cases, [*1661] however, the result is a rule of thumb that borders on punishment for bad timekeeping.'] | [
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c5c9302c3da62657c76c5c38aaa5c0c84bf1ddc3c0126bbbc76c433ac93402b2 | *The plan’s contingent on the effects in each individual case. That’s distinct. | null | Kevin Boyle & Hurst Hannum 74, Boyle is Barrister at Law at Queen’s University of Belfast; Hannum is a member of the California Bar, “Individual Applications Under the European Convention on Human Rights and the Concept of Administrative Practice: The Donnelly Case,” The American Journal of International Law, vol. 68, no. 3, American Society of International Law, 1974, pp. 440–453 | the practices exception could not in any circumstances apply to an individual application only a general issue , distinct from effects on individuals | the practices exception could not in any circumstances apply to an individual application only where an application raised a general issue , distinct from its effects on individuals | practices not any circumstances individual application general issue distinct from its effects individuals | ['In reply, the respondent government argued that the “administrative practices” exception developed by the Commission in relation to interstate cases could not in any circumstances apply to an individual application under Article 25. They submitted that it applied only where an application raised a general issue, distinct from its effects on individuals, and that an individual was incompetent to raise such general issues under Article 25.52 While denying generally that any violation of Article 3 had occurred, the respondent government maintained that, if violations did occur, adequate and effective remedies existed within domestic United Kingdom law which had not been exhausted by the individual applicants.'] | [
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5b2052c2751f7b9d86b2b6d002e8d85239b7efdc388823f51c05c80cc6179f4d | *The plan bans ‘doing x in a way that causes effect y’---that means the object of the prohibition is effect y, NOT practice x. | null | Andriani Kalintiri 20, Lecturer in Competition Law at King's College London, “Analytical Shortcuts in EU Competition Enforcement: Proxies, Premises, and Presumptions,” Jnl of Competition Law & Economics (2020) 16(3): 392-433, Lexis | vague provisions do not reveal what is prohibited prohibition of cartels as 'by object' violations rests on the premise that conduct of this kind lacks any justification 'by effect' analysis is explained by insight that behaviour may entail efficiencies the language may create the misimpression that finding 'by object' violation rests on presumption of effects Nevertheless is incorrect economic premises determin the optimal test that is, whether conduct should be subject to a rule or a standard 'by object' or 'by effect' conduct intrinsically capable of harming competition this potential of the practice needs not be proved ad hoc and a 'by object' violation will be established 'the distinction between "infringements by object " and by effect " arises from the fact that certain collusion can be regarded, by their nature , as being injurious there is no need to consider effects | Normative premises provide policymakers and adjudicators with valuable analytical shortcuts insofar as they relieve them of the need to establish the merits of the entailed generalizations every single time normative assertions are what give s shape to the otherwise vague letter of the antitrust provisions. Arguably, those provisions do not immediately reveal what is prohibited and are in need of elaboration to become operational The prohibition , for instance, of cartels as 'by object' violations of antitrust law rests on the economic premise that conduct of this kind lacks any justification and thus a rule of prima facie illegality is not liable to chill procompetitive behaviour the 'by effect' analysis of exclusive dealing is explained by the economic insight that behaviour of this kind may entail efficiencies the 'by object' test has been occasionally portrayed as a presumption of likely anticompetitive effects the language employed by the EU Courts is partly to blame for this This insofar as it may create the misimpression that a finding of 'by object' violation rests on a presumption of the existence of anticompetitive effects Nevertheless to speak of a presumption of effects is incorrect economic premises are employed for the purpose of determin ing the optimal legal test - that is, whether a conduct should be subject to a rule or a standard the 'by object' or the 'by effect' test conduct intrinsically capable of harming competition In this case, the anticompetitive potential of the practice needs not be proved ad hoc and a 'by object' violation will be considered established 'the distinction between "infringements by object " and "infringements by effect " arises from the fact that certain forms of collusion can be regarded, by their very nature , as being injurious to proper competition' As the Court elaborated, 'in order for a practice to be regarded as an anticompetitive object , it is sufficient that it has the potential to have a negative impact there is no need to consider effects | Normative shortcuts generalizations every single time give shape vague letter not immediately reveal what is prohibited elaboration operational cartels 'by object' any justification rule prima facie illegality procompetitive 'by effect' may efficiencies 'by object' portrayed presumption effects misimpression 'by object' presumption effects presumption effects incorrect determin conduct rule standard 'by object' 'by effect' intrinsically potential practice needs not be proved ad hoc 'by object' violation object effect forms of collusion very nature practice anticompetitive object potential no need effects | ['Normative and economic premises provide policymakers and adjudicators with valuable analytical shortcuts, insofar as they relieve them of the need to establish the merits of the entailed generalizations every single time they interpret and apply the competition rules. This is important in view of the far-reaching implications that the employed premises may have for competition enforcement.', "Firstly, normative assertions and economic propositions are what gives shape to the otherwise vague letter of the antitrust and merger provisions. Arguably, those provisions do not immediately reveal what is prohibited and are in need of elaboration to become operational. In this process, varying perceptions about the goals of the discipline may completely shift the focus of the analysis. 45 For example, if competition law is to be enforced with a view to protecting small- and medium-sized enterprises or employment-as opposed or in addition to, say, promoting consumer welfare-then different effects in the market may become relevant. 46 On the other hand, economic premises about the procompetitive or anticompetitive nature of the conduct at hand typically inform the choice between the application of a 'rule' or a 'standard'. 47 The prohibition, for instance, of cartels as 'by object' violations of antitrust law rests on the economic premise that conduct of this kind lacks any efficiency justification and thus a rule of prima facie illegality is not liable to chill procompetitive behaviour. 48 Conversely, the treatment of quantity rebates as prima facie lawful is grounded in the idea that this type of discount reflects the cost savings achieved by the undertaking in question. 49 In the same vein, the 'by effect' analysis of exclusive dealing under Article 101(1) TFEU is explained by the economic insight that behaviour of this kind may entail efficiencies. 50 Accordingly, normative and economic premises are instrumental in the construction of competition law.", "It is worth noting at this point that in the EU the 'by object' test has been occasionally portrayed as a presumption of actual or likely anticompetitive effects. Arguably, the language employed by the EU Courts is partly to blame for this. 51 In Cartes Bancaires, for instance, the Court of Justice explained that 'certain collusive behaviour, such as that leading to horizontal price-fixing by cartels, may be considered so likely to have negative effects ( ... ), that it may be considered redundant ( ... ) to prove that they have actual effects on the market', since 'experience shows that such behaviour leads to falls in production and price increases, resulting in poor allocation of resources to the detriment, in particular, of consumers'. 52 This wording though is confusing, insofar as it may create the misimpression that a finding of 'by object' violation rests on a presumption-in the technical sense of the word-of the existence of actual or likely anticompetitive effects in the circumstances at hand. Considering that presumptions shift the burden of proof, in this case it should be open to undertakings to challenge such a finding by showing that their cartel agreement, for instance, was never implemented or that the presumed negative effects are unlikely to occur. Nevertheless, the EU Courts' jurisprudence demonstrates that such arguments may not reverse a finding of 'by object' liability. 53 Consequently, to speak of a presumption of actual or likely anticompetitive effects is incorrect.", "Secondly, premises also play a fundamental role in the design of administrative priorities-that is, the identification of cases on which the authority will choose to expend its limited resources to maximize the return on taxpayers' money. For instance, if the goal is to promote consumer welfare, then it of course makes sense to prioritize investigations into practices which may have a bigger impact on it. Economic premises are critical in this screening exercise, since they can guide administrative agencies in detecting the most but also least 'problematic' types of behaviour in view of the pursued objective.", "For example, the prioritization of cartel enforcement worldwide rests on the economic insight that cartel conduct is among the most harmful for competition and consumers. Conversely, the development of 'safe harbours' setting out the circumstances where an authority is unlikely to intervene is grounded in the idea that competition is not liable to be impaired in the absence of a degree of market power. The Commission Guidelines on agreements of minor importance, for instance, explain that arrangements entered into between parties whose market shares do not exceed certain thresholds will be considered not to appreciably restrict competition in the meaning of Article 101(1) TFEU. 54 Similar pronouncements may be located in the Commission Guidelines on horizontal cooperation agreements or in the Commission Guidelines on horizontal and nonhorizontal mergers. 55 While these 'safe harbours' are often presented as 'presumptions of lawfulness', strictly speaking they are simply illustrations of the authority's policy and understanding of the law. 56", "Last but not least, premises have a third important function in competition enforcement-they form part of the backdrop against which the standard of proof inquiry is conducted. The reason for this is that the process of determining whether the available evidence is sufficient to surpass the requisite level of conviction or probability for a decision to be lawfully adopted is informed-among others-by normality considerations, which allow us to make sense of the evidence and to 'connect the dots'. Generally, our perception of 'usual' and 'unusual' is shaped by past experience and common sense. 57 In competition enforcement though, economic premises may also determine what is 'normal' and what is not. 58 For instance, because cartels are deemed to harm competition, claims and evidence of plausible explanations and efficiencies will be evaluated against this default idea. Likewise, the insight that 'the effects of a conglomerate-type merger are generally considered to be neutral, or even beneficial, for competition' led the General Court to emphasize in Tetra", "Laval that 'the proof of anticompetitive conglomerate effects of such a merger calls for a precise examination, supported by convincing evidence, of the circumstances which allegedly produce those effects'. 59 Therefore, premises inform not only the construction of the law and the design of policy but also fact-finding, insofar as they provide 'rules of thumb' and baselines for drawing inferences from the evidence. 60", 'B. The Construction and Deconstruction of Normative and Economic Premises', 'Premises are not set in stone though. Because they embody contemporary norms and values as well as current knowledge, they may-and do-evolve over time. Societal and political shifts and advances in economics may lead to the emergence of new premises or the critical revisiting of old ones. The construction and deconstruction of normative and economic premises in competition enforcement occur in an incremental and cumulative manner predominantly outside but also within the legal system.', 'Outside the legal system, scholarly works exposing the thinking underlying competition enforcement and challenging its theoretical and empirical foundations, as well as its consistency, play a pivotal role in this regard. This is hardly surprising-by promoting evidence-based dialogue and allowing for the fermentation of ideas, academic debates may result in the elimination of weak propositions, the emergence of consensus positions, and the creation of new knowledge. This process though is a constant work in progress, which partly explains why many of the disputes concerning competition enforcement resurface now and again. The recently reignited conversation about the goals of the discipline is a good example of this-after the espousal by many of efficiency and consumer welfare as the main aims of competition law, the issue has again been brought into the spotlight by commentators advocating for the pursuit of broader social and political objectives. 61 Economic premises are not immune to challenges either. As the currently ongoing discussion around the low levels of vertical merger enforcement illustrates, even well-established propositions-such as the idea that nonhorizontal concentrations generally benefit competition and generate efficiencies-may be questioned and potentially overturned. 62 Finally, academic works exposing inconsistencies in the legal treatment of various categories of conduct may also cast doubt on the convincingness of the premises underlying the applicable tests. 63', "Within the legal system, the construction and deconstruction of premises naturally occur during the development of policy and in the context of specific cases. Indeed, on several occasions the emergence of new knowledge or changes in the prevailing circumstances have prompted competition authorities to reflect on-and update, where necessary-the premises driving their enforcement activities. In the EU, for instance, the heavy criticisms against the Commission's early formalistic approach to the legal treatment of various practices led the authority to rethink its policy in different areas-from vertical agreements to horizontal arrangements to mergers and unilateral conduct. The replacement of old premises with new ones culminated in the publication of several soft law documents, which were seen as signalling a 'more economic' approach to EU competition enforcement. 64 More recently, the challenges of the digital economy have impelled several authorities to commission expert reports and to launch task forces or strategies with a view to ascertaining what normative and economic premises should drive antitrust and merger policy in that context. 65", "By contrast, courts are naturally more cautious against regular or radical changes in the law as a result of contemporary developments due to the need to preserve legal certainty and stability. 66 Nevertheless, the normative and economic propositions underpinning competition enforcement may be exposed or challenged in the context of judicial proceedings, too. Leegin is probably among the best examples of a drastic overhaul of the law in judicial acknowledgment of an evolution in current thinking. Noting that 'economics literature is replete with procompetitive justifications for a manufacturer's use of resale price maintenance', the US Supreme Court overturned Dr Miles and dismissed the per se illegality test in favour of a rule of reason analysis. 67 In the EU, the Courts have frequently spelt out the premises behind their interpretation of the law. While many have survived the passage of time relatively unscathed, for example, the idea that pricing below average variable costs is generally irrational for an undertaking or the insight that certain restraints are necessary in selective distribution or franchising, 68 others have been tested-for instance, the idea that exclusivity rebates offered by a dominant firm are inherently harmful for competition and consumers. 69 Over the years, such challenges have provided EU judges with the opportunity to incrementally clarify and elaborate on the main ideas driving the enforcement of the antitrust and merger rules. 70", 'C. Economic Premises and Evidence Rules', "Most, if not all, premises, in particular economic ones, have at least some empirical grounding, and their 'truth' or 'validity' may thus be contested, as just noted. To the extent that they underpin the construction of the competition provisions and their application to specific practices and may be challenged in the context of judicial proceedings, it is necessary to briefly consider whether they are subject to the evidence rules. Are economic propositions to be established to the standard of proof before being endorsed by the court? If there is disagreement between the parties about the 'correct' premise, say, for instance, regarding the competitive effects of exclusive dealing by dominant firms or the relationship between market structure and innovation, is this to be resolved in accordance with the rules on the burden of proof? And are judges exclusively dependent on parties to produce the relevant information, or can they engage in independent research?", "These queries go to the heart of a rather old, yet highly important problem-that of the integration of social science in law. 71 To the extent that the construction and the application of the legal rules hinge on 'knowledge' derived from social science, including economics, is this to be treated as 'fact' or as 'law' or perhaps as something else? Scholars have approached this question in different, albeit not fundamentally conflicting, ways. On the one hand, it has been suggested that so-called legislative facts-that is, facts that 'inform ( ... ) a court's legislative judgment on questions of law and policy'- must be distinguished from adjudicative facts, that is, facts about 'what the parties did, what the circumstances were, what the background conditions were', and that the evidence rules apply only to the latter. 72 On the other hand, it has been argued that social science may be treated both as 'law' and as a 'fact depending on its use: it is akin to 'law' when it provides the basis for law-making or is employed to establish background knowledge and general methodology, while it is akin to 'fact', when it is applied to case-specific issues or to produce case-specific research findings. 73", "With these remarks in mind, when economic premises are employed for the purpose of determining the optimal legal test-that is, whether a conduct should be subject to a rule or a standard (in EU terminology, the 'by object' or the 'by effect' test)-they arguably escape the application of the evidence rules. In the EU this conclusion is further reinforced by the exclusive competence of the EU Courts to provide authoritative guidance on the meaning of EU law. 74 Accordingly, conduct-specific economic premises, that is, generalized propositions pertaining to the economics of different practices-say, tying or price discrimination or refusal to supply-need not be established to the standard of proof to be accepted by EU judges as the motivation behind their choice of legal test. By contrast, where economic premises are employed as 'background knowledge' or even 'rules of thumb' for the purpose of making sense of the evidence, the answer is not as straightforward. As noted earlier, in [TABLE 1 OMITTED] this context economic premises may enable judges to draw inferences from the available pieces of information. Inevitably though, the strength of the inference is partly correlated with the strength or relevance of the economic premise. If either is prima facie challenged, then in principle the party with the burden of persuasion should explain why the inference should still be drawn.", 'V. PRESUMPTIONS AS ANALYTICAL SHORTCUTS IN EU COMPETITION ENFORCEMENT', 'A. A Brief Account of the Existing Presumptions', "Somewhat ironically, considering the popularity of the term in competition scholarship, there are not many presumptions in the technical sense in EU competition law. Indeed, the examination of the EU Courts' jurisprudence reveals the existence of only five (Table 1). 75 These effectively correspond to different elements of the antitrust rules that the Commission must prove to adopt a prohibition decision.", "The first presumption pertains to the notion of 'undertaking' against which Articles 101 and 102 TFEU are addressed. 76 As explained in H?fner and Elser, the concept comprises 'any entity engaged in an economic activity, regardless of the legal status of that entity and the way in which it is financed'. 77 Further elaborating on this in Hydrotherm, the Court stressed that the term 'undertaking' must be understood as designating an economic-rather than a legal-unit. 78 In this regard, the existence of distinct legal entities is immaterial; what matters is-as elucidated in Shell-that there is a 'unitary organisation of personal, tangible and intangible elements which pursues a specific economic aim on a long-term basis and can contribute to the commission of an infringement'. 79 In the case of parent companies and subsidiaries in particular, such an economic unit will exist where 'the subsidiary does not decide independently upon its own conduct on the market, but carries out, in all material respects, the instructions given to it by the parent company'; according to settled jurisprudence, in these circumstances the anticompetitive conduct of the subsidiary may be imputed to the parent company. 80 In Akzo the Court of Justice confirmed that 'where a parent company has a 100% shareholding in a subsidiary ( ... ) there is a rebuttable presumption that the parent company does in fact exercise decisive influence over the conduct of its subsidiary'. 81 Ever since its first affirmation, the Akzo presumption has been reiterated multiple times and is now solidly rooted in the Courts' jurisprudence.", "In any event, to find a violation of Article 101(1) TFEU in particular, the Commission must also demonstrate that the undertaking participated in a collusive arrangement-be it a concerted practice or an agreement. 82 Showing the existence of a concerted practice in principle entails proving three elements: concertation, subsequent market conduct, and causal connection between the two. In H?ls and in Commission v Anic Partecipazioni, however, the Court clarified that 'subject to proof to the contrary, which it is for the economic operators concerned to adduce, there must be a presumption that the undertakings participating in concerting arrangements and remaining active on the market take account of the information exchanged with their competitors when determining their conduct on that market'. 83 Ever since, the Anic presumption-as is often called-has become firmly embedded in the Courts' case law. 84 While it was initially developed in connection with concerted practices-that is, collusive arrangements falling short of an agreement-this presumption soon provided the basis for the emergence of another one, that of participation in a cartel upon evidence that the undertaking has attended a meeting with an anticompetitive object. Indeed, as confirmed for the first time in Aalborg Portland, 'it is sufficient for the Commission to show that the undertaking concerned participated in meetings at which anticompetitive agreements were concluded, without manifestly opposing them, to prove to the requisite standard that the undertaking participated in a cartel', the presumption being that its will concurs with that of the other attendants. 85", "At any rate, to adopt a prohibition decision, the Commission must also establish the duration of the antitrust violation and of the undertaking's involvement in it. This can be a daunting task-especially in complex infringements extending over longer periods of time. In recognition of this challenge, the EU Courts have eased the authority's burden of proof in two ways. Firstly, they have developed the doctrine of single, continuous or repeated infringement, according to which there is one infringement-rather than several-where a series of acts form part of an unlawful 'overall plan'. 86 The latter may be deduced 'from the identical nature of the objectives of the practices at issue, of the goods concerned, of the undertakings which participated in the collusion, of the main rules for its implementation, of the natural persons involved on behalf of the undertakings, and lastly, of the geographical scope of those practices'. 87 Secondly-and most importantly, for the purposes of this work, the EU Courts have adopted a presumption of continuity, whose foundations originate in Dunlop. According to the latter, 'if there is no evidence directly establishing the duration of an infringement, the Commission should adduce at least evidence of facts sufficiently proximate in time for it to be reasonable to accept that that infringement continued uninterruptedly between two specific dates'. 88", 'Finally, the case law arguably points at the existence of one more presumption-that is, if a conduct lacks any plausible explanation, it is intrinsically capable of harming competition. 89 Premises about the economics of the practice at hand and any \'objective justifications\' raised by the parties will be crucial to ascertaining whether, on the facts, there is no legitimate ground for it. 90 In this case, the anticompetitive potential of the practice is automatically inferred and needs not be proved ad hoc, unless the undertaking concerned produces evidence to the contrary, and a \'by object\' violation will be considered established, provided that the other elements of Article 101 TFEU or Article 102 TFEU have been sufficiently demonstrated. In the context of Article 101 TFEU, the Court of Justice explained in T-Mobile that \'the distinction between "infringements by object" and "infringements by effect" arises from the fact that certain forms of collusion between undertakings can be regarded, by their very nature, as being injurious to the proper functioning of normal competition\'. 91 As the Court elaborated, \'in order for a concerted practice to be regarded as having an anticompetitive object, it is sufficient that it has the potential to have a negative impact on competition\'; in this case, there is no need for the Commission to consider its effects. 92 Nevertheless, Football Association Premier League clarifies that undertakings may \'put forward any circumstance within the economic and legal context\' of the arrangement in question, which would justify the finding that it is \'not liable to impair competition\'. 93 A similar presumption is visible in the context of Article 102 TFEU, as well. Indeed, the judgment of the Court of Justice in Intel implies that practices, which lack a plausible explanation, are presumed to be capable of harming competition, unless the dominant undertaking challenges this conclusion \'on the basis of supporting evidence\'. 94'] | [
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e55bf22c74bcc140d5d242e34cc227e7d977275cbc13f84657d032662e3ca22e | Renewables EROI is too low---they can’t propel growth as fast as fossil fuels. | null | Parrique et al. 19, Timothée Parrique, Centre for Studies and Research in International Development (CERDI), University of Clermont Auvergne; Jonathan Barth, ZOE.Institute for Future-Fit Economies; François Briens, Independent, Informal Research Centre for Human Emancipation; Christian Kerschner, Department of Sustainability, Governance, and Methods, MODUL University Vienna, Austria, and the Department of Environmental Studies, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic; Alejo Kraus-Polk, University of California; Anna Kuokkanen, Lappeenranta-Lahti University of Technology; Joachim H. Spangenberg, Sustainable Europe Research Institute (SERI Germany), “Decoupling Debunked,” July 2019, European Environmental Bureau, https://mk0eeborgicuypctuf7e.kinstacdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Decoupling-Debunked.pdf | growth only on renewable s EROI is significantly lower compared to early fossil fuels average EROI by 2050 should renewable s increase to 30% and 50% drops to 3:1 If energy play an important role in growth renewable s are fundamentally unable to propel an economy as fast as fossil fuels | One could argue that green growth would only run on renewable energie s let us assume for a moment that a complete replacement of fossil fuels by renewables is possible materially (finding enough minerals and land to build the energy infrastructure) and socioeconomically Even then the EROI of renewable energies is still significantly lower compared to the high EROIs during the early days of fossil fuels Capellán-Pérez et al. simulate what would happen to average EROI by 2050 should renewable energy source s increase from 15% to 30% (1st scenario) and from 15% to 50% (2nd scenario). In the first scenario, average EROI drops from currently 6:1 to 5:1; and down to 3:1 in the second scenario. If energy expenditures play an important role in the dynamics of economic growth , this means that renewable energie s are fundamentally unable to propel an economy as fast as fossil fuels | only renewable s Even then the EROI of renewable energies is still significantly lower compared to the high EROIs during the early days of fossil fuels renewable s drops 3:1 renewable s fundamentally unable to propel an economy as fast as fossil fuels | ['One could argue that green growth would only run on renewable energies and so that the EROI of fossil fuels is irrelevant. Even though we will shortly argue that it is not, let us assume for a moment that a complete replacement of fossil fuels by renewables is possible materially (finding enough minerals and land to build the energy infrastructure) and socioeconomically (having renewable energies finding social acceptance and investment resources to completely replace fossil ones). Even then, according to Murphy and Hall (2011), the EROI of renewable energies (below 20:1) is still significantly lower compared to the high EROIs during the early days of fossil fuels (Hall et al., 2014). Capellán-Pérez et al. (2018) simulate what would happen to average EROI by 2050 should renewable energy sources increase from 15% to 30% (1st scenario) and from 15% to 50% (2nd scenario). In the first scenario, average EROI drops from currently 6:1 to 5:1; and down to 3:1 in the second scenario. If energy expenditures play an important role in the dynamics of economic growth, this means that renewable energies are fundamentally unable to propel an economy as fast as fossil fuels.'] | [
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f9ff25669c31a0f00fbf52308d5f890e90b0cb135b702bb21d1ba81886448f10 | Everything that can be tertiarized has been. It can’t sustain continued growth. | null | Parrique et al. 19, Timothée Parrique, Centre for Studies and Research in International Development (CERDI), University of Clermont Auvergne; Jonathan Barth, ZOE.Institute for Future-Fit Economies; François Briens, Independent, Informal Research Centre for Human Emancipation; Christian Kerschner, Department of Sustainability, Governance, and Methods, MODUL University Vienna, Austria, and the Department of Environmental Studies, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic; Alejo Kraus-Polk, University of California; Anna Kuokkanen, Lappeenranta-Lahti University of Technology; Joachim H. Spangenberg, Sustainable Europe Research Institute (SERI Germany), “Decoupling Debunked,” July 2019, European Environmental Bureau, https://mk0eeborgicuypctuf7e.kinstacdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Decoupling-Debunked.pdf | Tertiarisation only provides partial decoupling certain sectors cannot be dematerialised ag transport , and housing Cement is a example Although constructions can substitute other materials it is difficult to imagine how services could substitute food , shelter , or mobility leaving most pressures unsolved | Tertiarisation only provides a partial decoupling That is because certain sectors simply cannot be dematerialised . This is the case for ag riculture , transport , and housing construction, which, are often in the top sectors in terms of emissions and used materials Cement is a good example its production implies both high levels of process emissions and energy consumption, as well as an important amount of increasingly scarce marine sand Although constructions can substitute other materials to cement, it is difficult to imagine how services could possibly offer adequate substitute s to most industrial production with regards to elementary needs such as food , shelter , or mobility dematerialisation only concerns a limited fraction of the global economy, leaving most of the environmental pressures unsolved | partial cannot be dematerialised ag transport housing Cement other materials difficult to imagine how services could substitute elementary food shelter mobility leaving most of the environmental pressures unsolved | ['Not much tertiarisation left to do', 'Tertiarisation only provides a partial decoupling, and, importantly, one that has already occurred in most OECD countries. In these economies, the share of services in GDP is often already high, which is problematic because these are precisely those countries which have the highest ecological footprint per capita and thus should reduce their impact the most. Countries that have already reached a high degree of tertiarisation (more than 70% of value-added is generated in the service sector) retain a small industrial part that is increasingly difficult to compress.', 'That is because certain sectors simply cannot be dematerialised. This is the case for agriculture, transport, and housing construction, which, are often in the top sectors in terms of emissions and used materials. Cement is a good example. Representing 5% of global greenhouse gas emissions, its production implies both high levels of process emissions and energy consumption, as well as an important amount of increasingly scarce marine sand (Rubenstein, 2012; The Pembina Institute, 2014). Although constructions can substitute other materials to cement, it is difficult to imagine how services could possibly offer adequate substitutes to most industrial production with regards to elementary needs such as food, shelter, or mobility (the service of having a pizza home delivered requires roads, a vehicle, and, not least, a pizza made from material ingredients). Hence, dematerialisation only concerns a limited fraction of the global economy, leaving most of the environmental pressures unsolved.'] | [
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8a818ccf8f0a991e6f4f31a7c09fe937d0156d110a7d2a197869208c7d1847ca | Dematerialization from services is fake. | null | Jason Hickel 21, economic anthropologist, Fulbright Scholar and Fellow of the Royal Society of Arts, “Three - Will Technology Save Us?,” Less Is More: How Degrowth Will Save the World, Random House, 02/25/21, pp. 115–149 | the shift to services has delivered no improvements at all the material use of high-income nations is outpacing GDP growth highincome nations have the highest share also the highest per capita material footprints. By far we have seen rematerialisation even as we shifted to services What explains this ? partly incomes getting used to buy things But also services themselves turn out resource-intensive Tourism requires enormous material infrastructure | the celebrated shift to services has delivered no improvements at all when it comes to resource intensity Services represent 74% of GDP in high-income nations, having grown rapidly since deindustrialisation and yet the material use of high-income nations is outpacing GDP growth while highincome nations have the highest share of services in terms of contribution to GDP, they also have the highest per capita material footprints. By far Services have grown from 63% of GDP in 1997 to 69% in 2015, according to World Bank data. Yet during this same period global material use has accelerated we have seen a rematerialisation of the global economy even as we have shifted to services . What explains this ? It’s partly that the incomes people make in the service economy end up getting used to buy material goods People might earn their money on YouTube, but they spend it buying things like furniture and cars. But it’s also because services themselves turn out to be resource-intensive Take tourism Tourism is classed as a service, and yet it requires an enormous material infrastructure airports, planes, buses, cruise ships, resorts, hotels, swimming pools and theme parks (all of which are services themselves). | no improvements at all resource intensity material use of high-income nations is outpacing GDP growth share highest per capita material footprints. By far during this same period global material use has accelerated rematerialisation even as we have shifted to services What explains this ? incomes used to buy material goods things services themselves turn out to be resource-intensive tourism Tourism enormous material infrastructure | ['As it turns out, the much-celebrated shift to services has delivered no improvements at all when it comes to the resource intensity of rich nations. Services represent 74% of GDP in high-income nations, having grown rapidly since deindustrialisation began in the 1990s, and yet the material use of high-income nations is outpacing GDP growth. Indeed, while highincome nations have the highest share of services in terms of contribution to GDP, they also have the highest per capita material footprints. By far. The same is true on a global scale. Services have grown from 63% of GDP in 1997 to 69% in 2015, according to World Bank data. Yet during this same period global material use has accelerated. In other words, we have seen a rematerialisation of the global economy even as we have shifted to services.', 'What explains this strange result? It’s partly that the incomes people make in the service economy end up getting used to buy material goods. People might earn their money on YouTube, but they spend it buying things like furniture and cars. But it’s also because services themselves turn out to be resource-intensive in their own right. Take the tourism sector, for example. Tourism is classed as a service, and yet it requires an enormous material infrastructure to keep it going – airports, planes, buses, cruise ships, resorts, hotels, swimming pools and theme parks (all of which are services themselves).'] | [
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7374dc275424fbaa92e241c3a51715e6b8163f854d98f7c7939b0e1098d7c5a4 | It won’t happen without a mindset shift. | null | Umberto Mario Sconfienza 20, Goethe University Frankfurt, “Incomplete Ecological Futures,” World Futures, vol. 76, no. 1, Routledge, 01/02/2020, pp. 17–38 | policy reforms would not alter global warming The clout of market actors prevent effective policy Caps, taxes, and incentives none prevent actors polluting sponsoring skepticism and lobbying have prevented modest solutions It is difficult to change without refashioning our values | a-growth theory prescribes an ambitious package of policy reforms should be implemented to ensure strict environmental protection: ending subsidies to fossil fuels, scaling up renewables, taxing polluting substances and activities, and putting in place a widespread cap-and-trade mechanism. This set of policy proposals is derived from the idea that social welfare should be primarily pursued, irrespective of GDP growth The proposed policy solutions would not alter the wider architecture of our socio-economic system and, even with a steep price on carbon, lifestyle changes, and without fossil fuel subsidies, we are likely to commit ourselves to some form of dangerous global warming in the future The enormous political and economic clout of market actors with a vested interest in perpetuating the status quo is the most problematic aspect of this proposal powerful vested interests might prevent effective policy to be implemented compounded by the fact that the a-growth theory remains rooted in the current understanding of politics and economics from which powerful market actors profit . Similarly to the theory underlying the narrative of sustainable development a-growth theory subscribes to an economic understanding of the world in which the social reality and the ontology of economics match Current environmental politics is premised on an understanding of environmental problems as market failures Caps, taxes, and incentives are all instruments devised to address this undesired event. Yet, none of these instruments have prevent ed market actors from successfully pushing their polluting agenda Market actors have an array of techniques to achieve this goal: framing climate change and environmental problems as risks and thus susceptible to be addressed with the usual risk management tools sponsoring research which fuels climate change skepticism and lobbying and campaign contributions Powerful vested interests have so far prevented more modest policy solutions to be implemented than those proposed It is difficult to see how this might change without first a deep refashioning of our values and behavior excluded by the Policy Reform scenario | policy reforms social welfare primarily irrespective GDP growth not alter wider architecture even with likely to commit ourselves to some form of dangerous global warming in the future enormous political and economic clout of market actors vested interest in perpetuating the status quo most problematic aspect of this proposal prevent effective policy compounded current understanding politics economics profit sustainable development economic social reality ontology of economics match market failures address none of these instruments prevent actors from successfully pushing their polluting agenda array of techniques risks management tools skepticism lobbying campaign prevented more modest policy solutions to be implemented than those proposed first deep refashioning of our values and behavior excluded | ['The a-growth theory put forward by van den Bergh prescribes that an ambitious package of policy reforms should be implemented to ensure strict environmental protection: ending subsidies to fossil fuels, scaling up renewables, taxing polluting substances and activities, and putting in place a widespread cap-and-trade mechanism. This set of policy proposals is derived from the idea that social welfare should be primarily pursued, irrespective of whether it causes GDP growth or contraction. The proposed policy solutions would not alter, at least initially, the wider architecture of our socio-economic system (that is why the associated scenario, Policy Reform, is considered a Conventional world) and, even with a steep price on carbon, lifestyle changes, and without fossil fuel subsidies, we are likely to commit ourselves to some form of dangerous global warming in the future (van Vuuren et al., 2018). This is why technological solutions, in the form of geoengineering and development of clean energy, remain needed, along with some form of values and behavior change.', 'Before problems. The enormous political and economic clout of market actors with a vested interest in perpetuating the status quo is the most problematic aspect of this proposal. The risk that powerful vested interests might prevent effective policy solutions to be implemented is compounded by the fact that the a-growth theory remains rooted in the current understanding of politics and economics, from which powerful market actors profit. Similarly to the theory underlying the narrative of sustainable development currently informing environmental politics, the a-growth theory put forward by van den Bergh subscribes to an economic understanding of the world in which the social reality and the ontology of economics (prices, preferences, individuals, firms, etc.) match. Current environmental politics is premised on an understanding of environmental problems as market failures. Caps, taxes, and incentives are all instruments devised to address this undesired event. Yet, none of these instruments have prevented market actors from successfully pushing their polluting agenda. Market actors have an array of techniques to achieve this goal: framing climate change and environmental problems as risks, and thus susceptible to be addressed with the usual risk management tools already available to them (Wright & Nyberg, 2015), sponsoring research which fuels climate change skepticism (Oreskes & Conway, 2010), and lobbying and campaign contributions (Christiano, 2012). Powerful vested interests have so far prevented more modest policy solutions to be implemented than those proposed by van den Bergh. It is difficult to see how this might change without first a deep refashioning of our values and behavior, which seems to be excluded both by van den Bergh and by the Policy Reform scenario.'] | [
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8987a3332276c58c262c71ddeffd77400552aae130a9186f101d7a319f79c589 | 1) NO ALTERNATIVE---the transition will be forced through permanent depression | null | Giorgos Kallis 18, ICREA Research Professor at Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, environmental scientist working on ecological economics and political ecology, formerly Marie Curie International Fellow at the Energy and Resources Group of the University of California at Berkeley, PhD in Environmental Policy and Planning from the University of the Aegean in Greece, et al., 5/31/18, “Annual Review of Environment and Resources: Research On Degrowth,” Annual Review of Environment and Resources, Vol. 43, p. 308-309 | debat on voluntary degrowth versus forced is misleading As growth falters a transition could emerge from reactions and does not have to be in the name of degrowth involuntary end to growth lead to a state of continual economic depression | Although current worlds seem trapped in continuity, history is rife with surprise fueled by the incessant creativity of humans and their ability to come up with new ways of seeing the world and new forms of living debat es on the possibility of voluntary paths to degrowth versus the more probable event of forced reductions provoked by an involuntary crash is misleading Change is always voluntary and is always enacted through unchosen conditions As economic growth falters and as the toll of its limits and costs becomes unbearable, a transition akin to degrowth could emerge from dynamics among unforeseeable reactions , experiments, adaptations, and political struggles Such a transition does not have to be in the name of degrowth In contexts where life under growth is already disastrous for many people, and threatens to become even more so with climate change and the overshooting of planetary boundaries literature reviewed advocates changes in institutions, policies, values, understandings, and everyday modes of living an involuntary end to growth may well lead to a state of continual economic depression in which islands of wealth are sustained in seas of deprivation | history is rife with surprise debat voluntary degrowth more probable event forced reductions transition Such a transition does not have to be in the name of degrowth disastrous climate change overshooting of planetary boundaries involuntary end to growth lead to a state of continual economic depression | ['The fate of such openings will play out amid coevolutionary processes involving institutional organization, technology, environmental conditions, values, and knowledge (149). Although current worlds seem trapped in continuity, history is rife with surprise, fueled by the incessant creativity of humans and their ability to come up with new ways of seeing the world and new forms of living and producing their societies and their environments (150). ', 'From this perspective, recent debates on the possibility of voluntary paths to degrowth versus the more probable event of forced reductions provoked by an involuntary crash (10, 77) is misleading (78). Change is always voluntary and is always enacted through unchosen conditions (such as the availability of fossil fuels or the thermodynamics of production processes). History is shaped by collective action or inaction. As economic growth falters and as the toll of its limits and costs becomes unbearable, a transition in the direction of something akin to degrowth could emerge from dynamics among unforeseeable reactions, experiments, adaptations, and political struggles. Such a transition does not have to be in the name of degrowth. As with the eco-communes of Barcelona that Cattaneo & Gavalda (107) studied, the reduction of resource use can be the outcome of broader processes of social transformation driven by an ambition to co-live autonomously and democratically (1). ', 'In contexts where life under growth is already disastrous for many people, and threatens to become even more so with climate change and the overshooting of planetary boundaries, literature reviewed here studies, envisages, and advocates changes in institutions, policies, values, understandings, and everyday modes of living. Without the voluntary work to conceive and embody alternative ideas, explanations, practices, and institutions today, an involuntary end to growth may well lead to a state of continual economic depression in which islands of wealth are sustained in seas of deprivation, without pretense of democracy and social justice.'] | [
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162e613b0a11b735862a39eafdd84cfed58be6814fbf44ee06b3d7ed31f59c3f | 2) LATENT MOVEMENTS---dozens of examples are gathering steam | null | I.F. Thomas & N.A Porter 18, Thomas is Principal Partner, I F Thomas & Associates, and Student, School of Science, RMIT University; Porter is Associate Professor, School of Science, RMIT University, “Existential Risk: Why we urgently need our population and economy to degrow,” Chemeca, October 2018, Paper No. 44 | collapse has to-date been averted this cannot continue ‘sustainable’ ‘growth’ is an oxymoron Degrowth is already underway individual actions such as the 100 Resilient Cities Tiny House Voluntary Simplicity Transition Towns Creative Commons Cohousing and P2P | exponential population growth and unabated economic growth the most obvious and immediate threat s to our existence , ahead of all other risks postulated above Although there are indications of collapse in our economy such as the current fuel crisis and exponentially growing population complete economic collapse has to-date been averted by technological advances and by exploitation of the environment this cannot continue the mantra of ‘economic growth’ needs to desist in favour of ecological sustainability’.in conjunction with selective ‘economic degrowth’ Current advocates of sustainable growth are really growth economists attempting to disguise themselves as caring for the environment. The two terms ‘sustainable’ and ‘growth’ placed together is an oxymoron Degrowth is already underway in the developed world consequent upon the internet individual actions are happening such as the 100 Resilient Cities movement , Tiny House Movement , Voluntary Simplicity Movement Transition Towns movement, Creative Commons , Cohousing and free and open exchange of information in the form of Peer-to-Peer ( P2P ) practices advocates of degrowth suggest that developing countries should be allowed to continue growing. Unfair as it may seem, even this could lead to catastrophe . | population growth unabated economic growth obvious immediate threat to existence ahead all other risks postulated above fuel population complete averted technological cannot continue growth disguise themselves ‘sustainable’ ‘growth’ together oxymoron already underway individual actions 100 Resilient Cities movement Tiny House Movement Voluntary Simplicity Movement Transition Towns Creative Commons Cohousing P2P practices developing even this catastrophe | ['Many theorists such as Tom Lewis (renowned scientist says global collapse likely, 28Jan2013) believe that the threat of collapse and even of extinction of the human race is so great that there is nothing we can do to mitigate against it in the time available. The author prefers to think positively and regards exponential population growth and unabated economic growth as the most obvious and immediate threats to our existence, ahead of all other risks postulated above. Consequently the author addresses these in some detail.', '2 Population', '2.1 Introduction', 'Human population has been growing exponentially over nearly all of recorded time. Clearly this cannot continue. Therefore the solution to the current food plight, overcrowding, competition for resources, the fuel dilemma, impacts on climate, impacts on biodiversity and species extinctions, is for our population to stabilise. Current world population occupying 244 countries is 7.6 billion people. The population is predicted to increase by 22% from 1999 to 2030 (UN Food & Agriculture Organisation). Nine hundred and twenty three million people are presently ‘food insecure’ (Future Bioenergy and Sustainable Land Use; Earthscan, German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU), October 2008; FAOSTAT new pilot version) and China with 1300 million people will more than double its energy use by 2030. The rate of world population growth and the extent to which it is accelerating (exponentially) is indicated by the time taken to double the population. This is shown in Figure 3.', '[FIGURE 3 OMITTED]', 'Figure 3 shows that doubling time in 1715 (from 0.38 to 0.75 billion) was 544 years, in 1804 it was 304 years, in 1881 it was 166 years, in 1927 the population doubling time was 123 years, in 1960 it was 79 years, in 1974 it was 47 years and in 1999 it was 39 years.', 'Figures 4 and 5 show the rates of growth of the human population and the generalised microbial growth curve respectively. The issue is one of appropriate sharing of the world’s resources and of whether a stabilization should it occur, will be at or above a sustainable level. The level which is sustainable will vary in different parts of the world; arid countries for example may have large areas but little productive capacity.', 'The similarity between the linear scale black estimated and blue measured section in Figure 4 and the yellow log scale part of Figure 5 apart from the time scale, is self-evident. It has been known for a very long time that microbial growth exerts a pattern of constant population - the lag phase, followed by an exponential phase, by the stationary phase, and finally by the death phase. Because microorganisms grow so rapidly compared with ourselves, we are able to see what happens especially in instances where the total environment is finite for example in a rain puddle or a petri-dish (in this context our planet is essentially a larger puddle or petri-dish). A sign of hope is that the orange human growth curve predicted for the future in Figure 4 shows a levelling off and the green curve shows a declining population. It is the author’s view that most of the problems the world presently faces aside from natural events, could be solved by some form of population control. This has been known for a very long time but is rarely talked about and even more rarely acted upon.', 'A considered wiser and broader way of viewing this would follow the reasoning of philosopher Nick Bostrom (Existential risk prevention as global priority, Global Policy 2013). He advocates that for humanity to avoid existential catastrophe, we need to develop a sustainable trajectory rather than a sustainable state. He suggests for example, that before we adopt new technology without fully understanding its consequences, we develop intelligently, wisely and with world-body co-ordination. Then we might responsibly adopt new technologies selectively and for the greater good.', '[FIGURE 4 OMITTED]', 'Framing this in terms of sociologist the late John Urry’s thinking (The Problem of Energy, Energy & Society; Special Issue: Theory, Culture & Society; 2014) we should not have immediately rushed in to consume fossil fuels once they were discovered but rather, we should have rationed this resource so that amongst other things, it effectively never runs out.', 'In 2008 for the first time, there were more of us in cities than in the country. In 1975 there were three megacities in the world with a population above 10 million people. In 2011 the National Geographic reported that there were 21 megacities and predicted that by 2050, 70% of us will live in urban areas. The somewhat crass comment was made that if all 7 billion of us stand shoulder to shoulder, we will only fill Los Angeles (National Geographic, 30Oct2011). This was by way of illustration of the fact that it is not space that we need but balance.', 'Presently 5% of us consume 23% of the world’s energy, 13% of us do not have clean drinking water and 38% of us lack adequate sanitation. Our water tables are falling, soil is eroding, glaciers are melting and fish are dying.', '[FIGURE 5 OMITTED]', '2.2 Literature review in summary (source I F Thomas thesis)', 'Sharif presents a valuable insight into how we might responsibly control the global population by recognising that people in poor countries and in particular, women in poor countries, are just as able to make wise choices as we are despite their circumstances. Out of this he advocates providing resources for poor countries and educating their people as a way to stabilise the world’s population. The author agrees with the wisdom of this but suggests that the task is too difficult to achieve quickly and that therefore we need also to consider other means.', 'Mace indicates that all women given the opportunity, would have fewer children spaced further apart. She abhors suggestions that poorer country populations need to quell their high birth rates before it becomes ‘bothersome for the rest of us’. Rather she says, it is we in the developed world who need to curb our massive usage of the commons in order that all people have a reasonable share of them. The author accepts that we should do something about this, not the poorer people, for example by becoming demonstrably frugal with natural resources and learning to be satisfied with less.', 'Taagapera establishes a mathematical model which appears reasonably capable of predicting population changes, called the ‘tamed quasi-hyperbolic function’ and that any improvement of this model must include the exponential growth potential of any biological species, Earth’s limited carrying capacity, and the impact of technological change. He also suggests that wide-scale colonisation of space beyond Earth would boost ultimate carrying capacity. The author applauds this modelling effort in particular because it accords with the UN prediction of 10 billion by 2100 (2016, 7.6 billion). The author is also in agreement with his suggestion that populating other extra-terrestrial locations will assist our current demise but has the view that this is not presently practical. The author also suggests that given that we know that our exponentially growing population is on the brink of collapse, we should just get on and start to control it.', 'Karamouzian favours the recent shift in Iranian population control away from the post-1989 Rafsanjani-led reintroduction of family planning, again banning or severely repressing it. He claims that this is showing a reduction in population and that notwithstanding the new stricter policy, he claims that contraception is still available and that the new policy does not create health concerns. Aloosh claims conversely that the Iranian birth rate decline started well before the recent policy change*, that contraception is not now available and that there are penalties for anyone offering it. Consequently there are major health concerns associated with the new policy. He also says that the population figures have been manipulated to support the change. Erfani shows that the principal cause of the success of Iran’s former family planning policy is attributed to increased demand for fertility reduction produced by the rapid socio-economic change which followed the 1989 re-introduction of family planning after the 1979 revolution** banned it. The author tends to agree with the views expressed in support of the earlier, 1989 population program and like the World Health Organisation and others, regards Iran as an important country to watch.', 'Borrie suggested that the doomsayers have been proved wrong as a result of technological advances on the one hand and our continuing exploitation of the environment and other species that is the commons, on the other. Meier presents a first class appraisal of past impacts on population and is enlightening regarding the near complete extinction of a number of former indigenous peoples such as North American Indians, Maoris, Domenicans and Tasmanians. He does not mention the indigenous Australian people which is surprising. Estimates of their pre-settlement numbers range from 315,000 to 750,000 and by the 1920s, they were reduced to between 50,000 and 90,000. As Jones indicates, the wiping out of an estimated 90% of the Australian indigenous people by 1900 was caused principally by diseases such as smallpox, chickenpox, influenza, measles and venereal disease, although it is known that violence and poisonings were significant as was driving the people from their lands, from their water supply and from their known habitats.', 'The author considers Meier’s overview a worthy starting point for students wishing to understand population science (demography) and population control. The author also adds that Caldwell despite his eminence as a demographer like Borrie, claims that Australia has the potential to significantly increase its current population. At his time (1963), this may have appeared to be the case.', 'The more recent, Australia-specific studies by Jones and Butler emphasise the unique situation in this country in that 66% of the population is located in five large, dispersed cities occupying 3% of the land mass and that much of the remainder is close to being uninhabitable. Jones reports that in a study of 270 submissions, 90% favoured stabilising or reducing the Australian population which at the time of the study (2004), was 20 million and is currently 24 million. Jones also suggests that the real driver for post-war population increase and workforce increase, was related to the military threat from countries to the north. He suggests that these threats are now less. The author recalls in the early 1980s during his training with the Royal Australian Electrical and Mechanical Engineers (RAEME), how the army described the threat as being from ‘Musoria’ and the people of that country as being the ‘Musorians’. Military policy at that time was to defend Australia only as far north as a horizontal line drawn centrally across the continent and to let the northern half go. This was clearly not well understood by the general public at that time and indeed, it is not known whether this remains our country’s defence policy.', '2.3 Conclusions on population', 'Generalised feelings throughout these works are of (a) dismay in demographers not recognising the limitations of continuing economic growth, (b) a need for demographers and environmental scientists to work together, (c) a need for much more research to establish facts pertaining to appropriate levels of population, and (d) that there are no easy or quick solutions. The author ahead of studying of these learned works, had the view that enough is known to demonstrate that we globally, are already at an unsustainable population level, that we collectively need to stop destroying the environment including species other than ourselves and that we need to care for all members of our own species as well as reproducing ourselves sustainably. Nothing in these works points any differently to this view and many of the above workers and seven others not cited here recognise this for example, in the following quotes :-', '• The ‘Irrational fertility behaviour hypothesis’ (that women in poor countries do not behave rationally) is fundamentally flawed and should be replaced with the ‘Rational fertility behaviour hypothesis’.', '• All women including those in poverty would prefer to start having children later, to finish having them earlier and to space them further apart.', '• The World Health Organisation has commended Iran for its former birth control program.', '• Present and prospective growth rates cannot be maintained indefinitely.', 'The way to ensure that your children don’t starve to death is not to have so many; unfortunately this alone will not work. The way to ensure that your children don’t starve to death is to make sure everyone else doesn’t have so many. This is the epitome of the ‘Tragedy of the Commons’.', '• Demographic growth rates of today are a reflection of the triumph of man over environment through the application of science. Author’s comment … This ‘triumph’ will only be complete when fertility is brought into line with low mortality rates and more particularly, when a sustainable fertility level is achieved. Such a level also needs us to realise equal rights for all flora and fauna – not just we humans, collective Jainism perhaps.', '• In 1971 Borrie predicted a world population in 2000 of 7.5 billion (currently 7.6 billion).', '• In 1816 Thomas Malthus described our losing battle between exponential population growth and arithmetically increasing food production.', '• To provide everyone with at least a basic form of living requires richer countries to reduce their level of affluence, something which will not be easy.', '• Australia explicitly supported the position at the 1994 United Nations International Conference on World Population and Development in Cairo that all countries have a responsibility to stabilise their populations.', '• Humanity is exhausting its stock of easily recoverable coal, oil and gas (sources of compressed portable energy that have made the industrial revolution and modern civilisation possible) and is greatly reducing stocks of easily available fresh water, fertile soil, fish and pollution sinks. Author’s comment … the low hanging fruit is nearly all gone.', '• Optimum populations exist for any given set of technology and resources.', '• Like most mainstream demographers, conventional economists pay little attention to potential environmental and social constraints upon future population scenarios.', '• The economy is a wholly owned subsidiary of the environment and not the other way round.', '• Describing the demise of Easter Island as ‘ecocide’ may be little more than a modern myth.', 'Perhaps it is relatively unqualified, highly intelligent and very active individuals who are best equipped to get the population message across to the general public. Academia clearly has its place but the front-people are the likes of entrepreneur and adventurer Dick Smith who is doing the job so well. May there be more of both.', '3 Economic degrowth', '3.1 Introduction', 'Most fear this as being a reversion back to cave man living. Although it might involve less hours of employment per individual and greater sharing of ‘the commons’, it is fairer and also less traumatic than the inevitable global collapse if we keep on the way we are. Sharing of the commons needs to be equal among all human beings and all other species. When most people consider it important to protect flora, and fauna species other than humans, they are driven by the potential good which may result for humans by doing so. What we need to do is to share and protect all of the commons because it is morally right to do so. How often do we consider the deaths of birds when a jet aircraft strikes them - we usually only think of the demise of the aircraft and of its occupants. Similarly, we see the solution to the rapidly growing suburban kangaroo population as being to ‘cull’ them. We see road-kill as unfortunate rather than we being the sole cause of it – we care only about the impact on our cars and ourselves.', 'Although there are indications of collapse in our economy such as the current fuel crisis and exponentially growing population, complete economic collapse has to-date been averted by technological advances and by exploitation of the environment. It is likely that this cannot continue. Instead of using our advanced technology in this way, with careful application and sufficient wisdom, we can use it to achieve equality and sustainability for all people, reversal of the greenhouse effect and the halting of extinctions of other species. To achieve this, the mantra of ‘economic growth’ needs to desist in favour of, for example, ‘ecological sustainability’.in conjunction with selective ‘economic degrowth’.', 'Current advocates of sustainable growth are really growth economists attempting to disguise themselves as caring for the environment. The two terms ‘sustainable’ and ‘growth’ placed together is an oxymoron.', 'Degrowth is already underway in the developed world consequent upon the internet. Other individual actions are happening such as the 100 Resilient Cities movement, Tiny House Movement, Voluntary Simplicity Movement, Transition Towns movement, Creative Commons, Cohousing and free and open exchange of information in the form of Peer-to-Peer (P2P) practices. Further, advocates of degrowth suggest that developing countries should be allowed to continue growing. Unfair as it may seem, even this could lead to catastrophe.'] | [
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e0b55534850678fdd710811c79cdbe17b808fb3234266b79449e7bd28f43ece3 | AND, empirical successes prove it’s possible---but it needs crisis to go mainstream. | null | Ted Trainer 19, Conjoint Lecturer in the School of Social Sciences, University of New South Wales, “Entering the era of limits and scarcity: the radical implications for social theory,” Journal of Political Ecology, vol. 26, no. 1, 1, University of Arizona Libraries, 01/03/2019, journals.librarypublishing.arizona.edu, doi:10.2458/v26i1.23057 | towns will be driven by necessity to their own farms , energy and factories, transferring power to the local level low resource costs are achievable because of informal spontaneous action , and elimination of transport dumping packaging the Catalan Coop Thousands in hundreds of coop s providing food , goods and welfare eco-villages achiev sustainability it is unlikely transition begin unless there is major breakdown As long as it keeps shelves stocked , discontent is muted Significant numbers are thinking of replacing cap with localism These are effective foundations for profound cultural revolution lower use mean ordinary people coerced by economic deterioration restructuring their own regions | There will be insistence that frivolous industries be phased out so that scarce resources can be devoted to meeting fundamental regional needs . towns will be driven by necessity to bypass the center and set up their own farms , energy supplies and factories, transferring functions out of the control of the centre . the local is the only level where self-sufficient communities can be made. In time shifts will lead to transfer of functions and power from state-level agencies to the local level . This could be a smooth and peaceful process driven by general recognition that scarcity is making local self-governing communities the only option. The very low resource costs sustainability requires are achievable because of the proximity of functions , the familiarity enabling informal communication and spontaneous action , and the elimination of many processes (e.g., transport , waste dumping , fertilizer production , packaging ). An impressive example is the Catalan Integral Coop erative movement . Thousands work in hundreds of different coop erative s providing hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of food , goods and services , including unemployment and other welfare services . eco-villages achiev high levels of sustainability likely to be a global financial crisis of much greater magnitude than the 2008 much higher levels of debt are likely to bring on at least a serious recession in the next few years. deteriorating resource and ecological conditions likely trigger serious global economic disruption . it is very unlikely the transition envisaged could begin unless there is major breakdown in the existing consumer-capitalist system. As long as it keeps the supermarket shelves stocked , discontent is muted , and focused on demands for more jobs and higher income s rather than system replacement . The Goldilocks outcome would be a depression short of catastrophic breakdown , but serious enough to convince large numbers that the system is not going to provide for them . Significant and increasing numbers of ordinary people are seriously concerned and thinking in the direction of replacing consumer- cap italism with localism and simpler ways . These are the most effective foundations for social theory and practice now. profound cultural revolution is most likely to occur at the local level . if the limits to growth analysis is accepted the most deeply entrenched assumption has to be jettisoned, the taken-for-granted conviction that progress are defined by capacity to produce and consume more material wealth . the goal must be transition from to a form that involves far lower resource use , and this has to mean small-scale local economies that are self-governing , cooperative and committed to materially frugal lifestyles . the transition is a cultural problem , and it is difficult to imagine how these could be established other than through a grass-roots process where by ordinary people increasingly coerced by scarcity and economic deterioration take on the restructuring of their own suburbs, towns and regions the state , cannot drive these changes through | frivolous industries fundamental regional needs necessity bypass the center set farms energy supplies out of the control of the centre local In time power to the local level smooth and peaceful process low resource costs sustainability requires informal communication spontaneous action elimination of many processes transport waste dumping fertilizer production packaging example Catalan Integral Coop Thousands hundreds coop s thousands food goods and services unemployment welfare services eco-villages achiev high levels of sustainability serious global economic disruption very unlikely transition unless there is major breakdown shelves stocked muted for more jobs and higher income system replacement depression short of catastrophic breakdown serious enough to convince large numbers that the system is not going to provide for them Significant increasing concerned thinking cap localism and simpler ways the most effective foundations practice profound cultural revolution at the local level material wealth must be transition far lower resource use small-scale local economies self-governing cooperative committed to materially frugal lifestyles a cultural problem through grass-roots process ordinary people coerced by economic deterioration their own cannot drive these changes through | ['In time, this pressure is likely to shift from submitting requests to the state to making demands on it, and then to taking increasing control of it. There will be increasing insistence that frivolous industries must be phased out so that scarce resources can be devoted to meeting fundamental town and regional needs. Meanwhile towns will be driven by necessity to bypass the center and take initiatives such as setting up their own farms, energy supplies and factories, thus transferring various functions out of the control of the centre. There will be increasing recognition that the local is the only level where the right decisions for self-sufficient communities can be made. In time, these shifts will lead to the transfer of functions and power from state-level agencies to the local level, leaving the center with relatively few tasks, and mainly with the role of facilitating local activities. ', 'This radical restructuring could conceivably be a smooth and peaceful process, driven by a general recognition that scarcity is making local self-governing communities the only viable option. If this happens then in effect, Stage 1 will be recognized as having constituted the revolution, essentially a cultural phenomenon, and the macroscopic structural changes in Stage 2 will be seen as a consequence of the revolution. ', 'Thus a case for Anarchist theory and practice ', "It will be evident that the alternative social organization sketched above is a fairly common Anarchist vision (although there are also varieties that are not being advocated). The argument is that settlements enabling a high quality of life for all, despite very low resource use rates, must involve all members in thoroughly participatory deliberations regarding the design, development and running of their local productive, political and social systems. Their ethos must be non-hierarchical, cooperative and collectivist, seeking to avoid all forms of domination and to prioritize the public good. They must draw on the voluntary good will and energy of conscientious citizens who are ready to contribute generously and to identify and deal with problems informally and spontaneously, and to focus on seeking mutually beneficial arrangements with little if any need for industrial infrastructures and transport networks, bureaucracy, paid officials or politicians. Regional and wider issues will be tackled by the characteristic Anarchist mechanisms of federations and (powerless) delegates bringing recommendations back down to town meetings. The principle of 'subsidiarity' is evident in the practice of grass-roots politics, the avoidance of hierarchies, and the central role of town assemblies. The very low resource costs sustainability requires are achievable because of the proximity, diversity of functions and integration, the familiarity enabling informal communication and spontaneous action, and the elimination of many processes (e.g., transport, waste dumping, fertilizer production, packaging). ", "In the 1930s the Spanish Anarchists in the Barcelona region showed what could be done by ordinary workers and citizens. An impressive current example is the Catalan Integral Cooperative movement (Dafermos 2017; TSW 2015a). Thousands work in hundreds of different cooperatives providing hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of food, goods and services, including unemployment and other welfare services. They operate more than twenty food 'pantries' largely via voluntary labor, handling more than a thousand products. Their goal is to build an alternative society focused on meeting needs, with no involvement of the state or market principles. Many eco-villages operate according to Anarchist principles, achieving high levels of sustainability (again see Lockyer 2017 and Grinde et al. 2018). ", "In addition it will be evident that the discussion of transition strategy also follows Anarchist principles, especially in the notion of 'prefiguring' the new here and now within the old, not depending on the centre let alone a vanguard party, and recognizing the importance of ideas and values. ", 'The advent of GFC 2 ', "Unfortunately the foregoing transition sequence is likely to be greatly disrupted and possibly thwarted a global financial crisis of much greater magnitude than the 2008 event. It is widely recognized that the much higher levels of debt are likely to bring on at least a serious recession, and probably worse in the next few years. The global economy is heavily dependent on petroleum supply, which is been kept up by 'fracking', but this has only been made possible by enormous debt; none of the major companies in the arena has ever made a profit. Several analysts have pointed out that the price levels necessary to make the new sources of petroleum profitable now seem to be above those necessary to enable economies to function normally. In addition, Ahmed (2017) has argued persuasively that the rapidly worsening population, food, water and ecological conditions affecting Middle Eastern petroleum suppliers are increasing their chances of becoming failed states. Meanwhile the proportion of their petroleum production they must use internally is increasing, adding to the possibility that their capacity to export will dry up within a decade. These and other deteriorating resource and ecological conditions (especially falling Energy Return on Energy Invested rates) are likely to trigger serious global economic disruption long before localist initiatives have been well enough established. ", 'Yet it is very unlikely that the kind of transition envisaged could begin unless there is major breakdown in the existing consumer-capitalist system. As long as it keeps the supermarket shelves stocked, discontent is likely to be muted, and focused on demands for more jobs and higher incomes rather than system replacement. The Goldilocks outcome would seem to be an economic depression that falls short of catastrophic breakdown, but is serious enough to convince large numbers that the system is not going to provide for them. ', 'The challenge to the Left ', 'This analysis has especially important implications for those who are radically critical of consumercapitalist society. Firstly it is evident that the revolution required to solve the problem is far bigger than that which Marx envisaged. Merely getting rid of capitalism will not suffice. Secondly, the most promising frontier now for such critics is the challenge to current society being set by unsustainable resource and ecological impacts. Latouche said the limits to growth are giving critical theory its last chance (2012: 75). Yet the foregoing argument has been that this opportunity has hardly been recognized, let alone taken up. Bookchin saw this some time ago. "The New Left, like the old left, has never grasped the revolutionary potential of the ecological issues, nor has it used ecology as a basis for understanding the problems of communist reconstruction and utopia" (1973: 242). Significant and increasing numbers of ordinary people are seriously concerned about these issues and are thinking more or less in the general direction of replacing consumer-capitalism with localism and simpler ways. These themes are likely to be the most effective foundations for critical social theory and practice now. ', "But unfortunately the Left has a deeply entrenched reluctance to embrace these ideas. The traditional assumption has been that when power has been taken from the capitalist class, the contradictions preventing full application of the productive forces will be removed and technical advance will lift all to material wealth. Socialism is distinctly not conceived today in terms of frugality or localism. Indeed some socialists embrace 'ecomodernist' ideas, notably Phillips (2014) and Sharzer (2012), who explicitly spurn the suggestion that local or simpler ways are necessary or desirable. ", 'David Harvey represents the many Marxists who reject localism both as a goal and as a revolutionary strategy in favor of the typical socialist focus on action at the state level (Harvey 2017). For a critique, see Springer (2017). The Marxist position fails to address current circumstances, where the goal must be to contradict individualistic competitive affluence and must focus on citizen involvement in local economies. Major change at the central or state level cannot be achieved before a profound cultural revolution has been achieved, and this is most likely to occur via developments at the local level. ', 'Delusion and denial: the inability to respond ', 'There are difficult and puzzling issues for social theorists that will not be taken up in this article. They are the psychological and institutional reasons for the failure to deal adequately with the limits to growth predicament, or with its major sub-problems such as the looming petroleum supply, debt, and climate change crises. The core phenomenon to be explained here would seem to be failure to even recognize the existence and/or seriousness of the problems, rather than lack of appropriate remedial action. ', 'The essential causal factor is surely that if the limits to growth analysis is accepted then perhaps the most deeply entrenched post-Enlightenment assumption has to be jettisoned, i.e., the taken-for-granted conviction that progress and the good life are defined by capacity to produce and consume more and more material wealth. The suggestion that the supreme social goal should be materially simple lifestyles and systems, with no prospect of rising to greater affluence over time, would seem to be about as distasteful and unthinkable to workers and the lumpenproletariat as to the super-affluent 1%. ', '6. Conclusions: a reorientation of social theory ', 'The argument is that the advent of the limits to growth issue should be seen as requiring a major shift in the focal concerns of social theorists, especially those interested in critical perspectives on contemporary society and in sustainability and utopian themes. To begin with, a limits perspective involves a commitment to an inescapable logic that leads to quite specific conclusions regarding desirable social forms and how they might be achieved. If the limits are as severe as has been argued, then the goal must be transition from consumer-capitalist society to a general form that involves far lower resource use, and this has to mean mostly small-scale local economies that are self-governing, basically cooperative and committed to materially frugal lifestyles. If this is so, then the transition is essentially a cultural problem, and it is difficult to imagine how these ways could be established other than through a slow grass-roots process whereby ordinary people increasingly coerced by scarcity and economic deterioration take on the restructuring of their own suburbs, towns and regions (Alexander and Gleeson 2019). A major implication drawn above is that centralized agencies, especially the state, cannot drive these changes through.'] | [
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] | 1,546,502,400 | 30 |
9112814cc1efe2e35e8714e25ffa3e30ef594f9ff298b1cadcfc9d0bc52cfe5a | It’s a distinction with a difference---‘rule of reason’ and ‘per se’ have precise meanings AND access literature with completely different base assumptions. | null | Donald L. Beschle 87, Associate Professor of Law, The John Marshall School of Law. B.A., 1973, Fordham University; J.D., 1976, New York University School of Law; LL.M., 1983, Temple University School of Law. March. CURRENT TOPIC IN ANTITRUST: "What, Never? Well, Hardly Ever": Strict Antitrust Scrutiny as an Alternative to Per Se Antitrust Illegality., 38 Hastings L.J. 471 | the permissive rule of reason not meriting prohibition deserves antitrust analysis per se carry precise meanings , but also general attitudes , per se does not carry the permissive connotations associated with rule of reason When conduct would traditionally be per se illegal courts apply scrutiny replacing prohibitions on conduct with not prohibitions , but presumptions | In response to recent attacks on per se rules, courts have clung to the term and to its absolutism by steadily narrowing the definitions of the types of behavior subject to those rules. the application of permissive rule of reason treatment to some behavior which, while not meriting absolute prohibition , clearly deserves careful antitrust analysis the absolutism of the term " per se terms carry not only precise meanings , but also general attitudes , per se " does not carry the permissive connotations which have become associated with the " rule of reason ." When faced with conduct which would traditionally be labelled per se illegal under antitrust courts should apply strict antitrust scrutiny . They replacing a system which places absolute prohibitions on conduct with a system which places, not absolute prohibitions , but heavy negative presumptions , on a larger set of behaviors | permissive not meriting prohibition analysis precise meanings general attitudes permissive connotations traditionally scrutiny replacing prohibitions not prohibitions presumptions | ['In response to recent attacks on per se rules, courts have clung to the term and to its absolutism by steadily narrowing the definitions of the types of behavior subject to those rules. The result has been not only much confusion, with words being used to designate things far narrower than their commonly understood meanings, but also the application of permissive rule of reason treatment to some behavior which, while not meriting absolute prohibition, clearly deserves careful antitrust analysis.', 'The proper response to this confusion is to retain the valid insight of per se jurisprudence, that certain types of behavior should be treated as more suspect than others, while abandoning the indefensible absolutism of the term "per se." However, since terms carry with them not only precise meanings, but also more general attitudes, "per se" must be replaced with a term which does not carry the permissive connotations which have become associated with the "rule of reason."', 'The best available term for this new test is strict antitrust scrutiny. The use of such a term, and the type of analysis it suggests, is well known in constitutional law, where it by no means is associated with leniency. When faced with conduct which would traditionally be labelled per se illegal under the antitrust laws, courts should apply strict antitrust scrutiny. They should ask whether the defendant can carry the heavy burden of demonstrating that its conduct is narrowly tailored to achieve a procompetitive end. By replacing a system which places absolute prohibitions on types of conduct which can be defined so narrowly as to be irrelevant with a system which places, not absolute prohibitions, but heavy negative presumptions, on a larger set of behaviors, strict scrutiny should, on the whole, lead to more vigorous antitrust enforcement.'] | [
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9b622eeb2cad58c8929f3ad618d9fd5bc912e5bab509f14c902f96753d352d9d | It’s the core of the modern debate about antitrust AND there are plenty of AFF arguments. | null | Thomas A. Piraino Jr. 7, Vice President, General Counsel, and Secretary, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, Cleveland, Ohio. Distinguished Adjunct Lecturer, Case Western Reserve University School of Law. J.D., Cornell Law School, 1974, “Reconciling the Harvard and Chicago Schools: A New Antitrust Approach for the 21st Century,” Indiana Law Journal: Vol. 82 : Iss. 2 , Article 4, https://www.repository.law.indiana.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1354&context=ilj | per se rule or rule of reason are so divergent that choice of one usually determined the case Because the dividing line is so critical , a debate raged for decades over the proper scope of each Harvard and Chicago on opposite sides rule of reason is now dominant However provides little guidance self-policing is impossible lead to overdeterrence firms miscalculate courts must adopt a clearer method | Section 1 of the Sherman Act prohibits any "conspiracy, in restraint of trade." For most of the twentieth century federal courts have assumed they must choose between two opposite methods of analyzing restraints of trade a " per se rule " or a " rule of reason " The approaches are so divergent that a court's choice of one over another has usually determined the outcome of a case Because the dividing line is so critical , a debate has raged for decades over the proper scope of each approach . The Harvard and Chicago Schools aligned on opposite sides the rule of reason is now dominant However has been unable to construct effective decision making courts' definitions of the rule have not progressed beyond a requirement that the trier of fact consider all the circumstances The rule provides little guidance Antitrust enforcement relies primarily on self-policing but voluntary compliance is impossible when standards are unclear These standards lead both to under-deterrence and overdeterrence Not only will firms miscalculate and risk anticompetitive conduc they may also avoid procompetitive behavior under the mistaken assumption that it can be attacked Since the outcome is so difficult to predict, both plaintiffs and defendants miscalculate Under the courts' approach, the antitrust laws are capable of neither encouraging beneficial conduct nor deterring anticompetitive practices In order to insure an effective antitrust policy, the federal courts must adopt a clearer method | two opposite methods " per se rule " " rule of reason " so divergent choice one over another determined the outcome of a case dividing line so critical debate has raged for decades over the proper scope of each approach Harvard Chicago Schools opposite sides rule of reason dominant unable effective decision making all the circumstances little guidance self-policing impossible standards are unclear under-deterrence overdeterrence miscalculate avoid procompetitive mistaken assumption attacked miscalculate neither beneficial deterring anticompetitive clearer method | ['Section 1 of the Sherman Act prohibits any "conspiracy, in restraint of trade."36 For most of the twentieth century, the federal courts have assumed that they must choose between two opposite methods of analyzing restraints of trade under section 1: a "per se rule" that deems certain conduct illegal on its face; 37 or a "rule of reason" that inquires into all conceivable circumstances before determining the legality of a particular restraint. 38 The per se and rule of reason approaches are so divergent that a court\'s choice of one analysis over another has usually determined the outcome of an antitrust case. Traditionally, the rule of reason meant a decision for the defendant and the per se rule a victory for the plaintiff.39 Because the dividing line between per se and rule of reason analysis is so critical, a debate has raged for decades over the proper scope of each approach. The Harvard and Chicago Schools have been aligned on opposite sides of the per se/rule of reason divide.', '1. Ascendancy of the Per Se Rule', "Courts and agencies following the Harvard School found a per se approach attractive because it greatly enhanced the effectiveness of antitrust enforcement. Per se standards reduced the time and expense of antitrust cases, provided clear guidance to businesses, and effectively deterred anticompetitive conduct.40 The Supreme Court first used a per se approach early in the twentieth century in price-fixing cases, where the anticompetitive potential of the arrangements was so obvious that the Court could easily dispense with inquiries into market conditions or the defendants' justifications.41", 'No new per se classifications were established until the late 1950s, when the Harvard School first began to influence the Supreme Court. By the late 1960s, the Court had applied the per se rule to tying arrangements, 42 horizontal territorial or customer allocations, 43 and group boycotts. 44 The Harvard School "fever reached its peak\'\'45 in 1967 with United States v. Arnold, Schwinn & Co., 46 which extended the per se rule to nonprice vertical restrictions imposed by a supplier on its distributors.', 'By making so many restraints illegal on their face, the activist per se approach insured that American firms would avoid conduct that could harm consumers.47 The dominance of the per se rule, however, also caused significant problems. The per se approach was rigid and formalistic. By mechanically precluding certain conduct without any consideration of its economic effects, the rule deterred beneficial, as well as pernicious, business practices. For example, the nonprice vertical restraints condemned by the Supreme Court in Schwinn arguably promoted competition between retail brands.4a During the 1970s, Chicago School scholars began to criticize the per se rule for its failure to consider the potential beneficial effects of such restraints.4 9', '2. Increased Use of the Rule of Reason', "After the high watermark of per se analysis in the Schwinn case, the federal judiciary began to take notice of the Chicago School's criticism of the approach. The most dramatic retreat from per se analysis occurred in 1977 when, in Continental T. V., Inc. v. GTE Sylvania Inc.,50 the Supreme Court reversed its decision in Schwinn and decided that nonprice vertical restrictions should be judged by the rule of reason.", 'At issue in Sylvania was a contractual requirement that distributors sell Sylvania television sets only from authorized locations. 51 The Court recognized that, although this requirement limited competition among the distributors in the resale of Sylvania televisions ("intrabrand competition"), it also promoted competition with other brands of television sets ("interbrand competition") by inducing Sylvania distributors to make the investments necessary to provide more services to customers. 52 Drawing heavily upon the scholarship of Richard Posner, 53 the Court concluded that a rule of reason, rather than a per se, approach was appropriate in light of the potential economic benefits of the location clause imposed by Sylvania. 4', "Sylvania established the foundation for modem antitrust's reliance on empirical economic evidence. After Sylvania, the federal courts had to confront a new paradigm: henceforth, they could not indulge in any presumptions of illegality under the antitrust laws that were not supported by economic facts. Other decisions favoring the rule of reason followed on the heels of Sylvania. Indeed, the history of antitrust analysis since Sylvania has been, with only a few exceptions, a steady erosion of the per se approach and an expanded use of the rule of reason.", 'In 1979 the Supreme Court indicated for the first time that it would be willing to apply a rule of reason analysis to a price-fixing arrangement. The Court held in Broadcast Music, Inc. v. CBS55 ("BM/") that a group of copyright holders did not commit a per se violation of the Sherman Act when they fixed a common price for the licensing of their musical compositions. 56 The Court pointed out that, instead of engaging in a rigid per se analysis, fact finders should initially consider whether a restraint "appears to be one that would always or almost always tend to restrict competition and decrease output. \' 57 The Court concluded that the common license allowed the copyright holders to market their compositions more efficiently and therefore should be analyzed under the rule of reason. 58', "During the 1980s, the Supreme Court extended the rule of reason to other horizontal agreements with potential efficiency justifications. 59 The lower federal courts have followed the Supreme Court's lead in limiting applications of the per se rule and expanding the use of the rule of reason. Convinced by the Chicago School of the dangers of an absolute approach, federal judges have shown an increased willingness to consider defendants' justifications for practices formerly considered illegal on their face.6 °", '3. Deficiencies in Rule of Reason Analysis', 'As a result of the revolution in antitrust economics that occurred within the federal judiciary in the 1980s, the rule of reason is now the dominant form of analysis in Sherman Act cases. However, the Chicago School has been unable to construct a formulation of the rule of reason that allows for effective decision making, Most judicial discussion of the rule of reason standard has occurred in the Supreme Court and federal appellate courts, where the analysis has been confined to the issue of whether a rule of reason or per se standard should apply.61 Once the courts have decided that the rule of reason is appropriate, they have usually neglected to explain how it should be applied on remand. Most courts\' definitions of the rule have not progressed beyond a requirement that the trier of fact consider all the circumstances surrounding a restraint before condemning it.62 The courts simply quote "a long list of factors without any indication of priority or weight to be accorded each factor., 63', "The current rule of reason standard provides little guidance to litigants, judges, or juries.64 Antitrust enforcement relies primarily on self-policing by the business community, but voluntary compliance is impossible when antitrust standards are unclear. These uncertain standards can lead both to under-deterrence and overdeterrence. Not only will firms miscalculate and risk anticompetitive conduct that they believe to be lawful; they may also avoid procompetitive behavior under the mistaken assumption that it can be attacked successfully. 65 Since the outcome of cases is so difficult to predict, both plaintiffs and defendants miscalculate. Plaintiffs bring unjustified suits that waste judicial and private resources, and defendants continue to engage in questionable competitive practices. Under the courts' current approach, the antitrust laws are capable of neither encouraging beneficial conduct nor deterring anticompetitive practices. In order to insure an effective antitrust policy, the federal courts must adopt a clearer method of analyzing restraints of trade under section 1 of the Sherman Act."] | [
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7ff8b1989b63037ff73ce620034cc108e7b9d825eb15c1f215abe2b296657b24 | The top says ‘unfair business practices’ is a broad term---it’s obviously referring to the word ‘unfair,’ NOT to business practices. | null | Mathew Tobriner 72, J., Associate Justice of California Supreme Court, “Barquis v. Merchants Collection Assn.,” 7 Cal.3d 94 | In all "unfair" business practices , section 3369 establishes a wide standard to guide courts given the creative scheming mind a less inclusive standard would not be adequate | In permitting the restraining of all "unfair" business practices , section 3369 undeniably establishes only a wide standard to guide courts of equity given the creative scheming mind , the Legislature evidently concluded that a less inclusive standard would not be adequate | "unfair" business practices wide standard creative scheming mind less inclusive standard would not | ['In permitting the restraining of all "unfair" business practices, section 3369 undeniably establishes only a wide standard to guide courts of equity; as noted above, given the creative nature of the scheming mind, the Legislature evidently concluded that a less inclusive standard would not be adequate. In the instant case, however, we need not undertake the task of determining the "fairness" of defendant\'s alleged conduct in light of contemporary standards, because insofar as defendant\'s alleged practice involves the repeated violation of specific venue statutes, the practice is enjoinable under section 3369 as an "unlawful ... business practice," totally apart from its inherent "fairness." As originally enacted in 1933, section 3369 defined "unfair competition" only in terms of "unfair or fraudulent business practice[s]"; most of the reported cases, dealing in deceptive conduct, arose under the statute as so worded. In 1963, however, the Legislature amended section 3369 to add the word "unlawful" to the types of wrongful business conduct that could be enjoined. Although the legislative history of this amendment is not particularly instructive, fn. 13 nevertheless, as one [7 Cal.3d 113] commentator has noted "it is difficult to see any other purpose than to extend the meaning of unfair competition to anything that can properly be called a business practice and that at the same time is forbidden by law." (Note, Unlawful Agricultural Working Conditions as Nuisance or Unfair Competition (1968) 19 Hastings L.J. 398, 408-409.)'] | [
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c5738c48443be2335a17d503627ec98f1c9d39ff84d6d47652115f569b317352 | The bottom says courts didn’t decide the standalone meaning of ‘business practice’ in this case, because the defendants didn’t contest it. | null | Mathew Tobriner 72, J., Associate Justice of California Supreme Court, “Barquis v. Merchants Collection Assn.,” 7 Cal.3d 94 | Defendant does not claim under the allegations of the complaint the conduct is not a “business practice.” | Defendant does not claim that under the allegations of the complaint the challenged conduct is not a “business practice.” | does not claim that under the allegations of the complaint the challenged conduct is not a “business practice.” | ["As discussed above, under the allegations of plaintiffs' first amended complaint, defendant's practice consists of repeated violations of specific statutory provisions of both the Code of Civil Procedure and the Civil Code; such a pattern of behavior clearly constitutes “unlawful” conduct, and if an enterprise pursues such a course of conduct as a “business practice,” we conclude that the activity may be enjoined under section 3369. Defendant agency does not, and could not, claim that under the allegations of the complaint the challenged conduct is not a “business practice.” The complaint specifically alleges that the agency undertakes its alleged misfiling “as a pattern and practice” and obviously such practice, if in fact conducted, directly relates to the defendant collection agency's conduct of its “business.” We thus conclude that plaintiffs' allegations sufficiently state a cause of action for injunctive relief under Civil Code section 3369, and that the trial court erred in sustaining defendant's demurrer to plaintiffs' third cause of action. *114"] | [
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4f793706471d08b97fd5490125356b4fd45e0f4b78aa359d3eb8dd33720c9808 | BUT---their card is interpreting the California Unfair Practices Act | null | James Hastings 75, Court of Appeals of California, Second Appellate District, Division Five, “Plotkin v. Tanner's Vacuums,” https://law.justia.com/cases/california/court-of-appeal/3d/53/454.html | action for "unfair competition" as defined in the California UPA set forth in section 17000 and 3369 | a cause of action for "unfair competition" as defined in the California Unfair Practices Act UPA set forth in section 17000 and Civil Code section 3369 | "unfair competition" California Unfair Practices Act section 17000 Civil Code section 3369 | ['[1] Appellants claim they have stated a cause of action for "unfair competition" as defined in the California Unfair Practices Act (UPA) set [53 Cal. App. 3d 457] forth in California Business and Professions Code section 17000 et seq. fn. 2 and California Civil Code section 3369. fn. 3 In general they argue that the provisions of the sections are so broad that they include almost any form of unfair competition, and what constitutes an unfair or fraudulent business practice under any given set of circumstances is a question of fact to be determined at trial and not by a ruling on a demurrer. They rely primarily on two cases, Paramount Gen. Hosp. Co. v. National Medical Enterprises, Inc., 42 Cal. App. 3d 496 [117 Cal. Rptr. 42], and People ex rel. Mosk v. National Research Co. of Cal., 201 Cal. App. 2d 765 [20 Cal. Rptr. 516]. While these cases do emphasize that the statutes codifying the Unfair Practices Act are to be liberally construed, recognizing that "unfair or fraudulent business practices may run the gamut of human ingenuity and chicanery," (People ex rel. Mosk v. National Research Co. of Cal., supra, at p. 772) the general principles set forth therein do not aid appellants. The only issue here is whether it is unfair competition for a manufacturer to create a distributorship and require retail purchasers to purchase from distributors rather than directly from the manufacturer. fn. 4 The cited cases do not determine this issue.'] | [
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78d0abb6723190cda865f92663ba0901fedca2e073bec2d3ab383811de8749f9 | The two are NOT the same. This argument only proves courts are moving away from per se rules---which is our whole argument about link uniqueness! | null | Geoffrey Manne 20, president and founder of the International Center for Law and Economics (ICLE), a nonprofit, nonpartisan research center based in Portland, “Error Costs in Digital Markets,” in the Global Antitrust Institute Report on the Digital Economy, 8/25/20, https://gaidigitalreport.com/2020/08/25/error-cost-analysis-in-digital-markets/ | conduct is per se illegal when “the practice facially would almost always restrict competition the decision to assess conduct per se is the preliminary stage of rule of reason analysis: the characterization and classification The first step per se requires classification courts inquire the nature of the agreement If it is not unreasonable per se , courts proceed to a fact-intensive analysis quick look in practice simply formalized that anything but a per se rule entails a Rule of Reason Thus Cal Dental : categories are less fixed than terms make them appear | conduct is deemed per se illegal when “the practice facially appears to be one that would always or almost always restrict competition the decision to assess conduct under the per se rule is the preliminary stage of any rule of reason analysis: the characterization and classification of conduct Standard Oil‘s Rule of Reason manifests in a two-step analysis . The first step — per se analysis— requires characterization and classification Here courts inquire into the nature of the agreement and decide whether it is unlawful per se or instead subject to further scrutiny . If the restraint survives this step that is, if it is not unreasonable per se , courts proceed to the second step a fact-intensive analysis of actual effects While courts refer to this second step as a Rule of Reason both steps attempt to answer the question put by Standard Oil, viz., is a restraint “unreasonably restrictive of competitive conditions.” In the per se context, the Court eventually introduced an intermediate process quick look review in an attempt to move away from per se illegality But in practice the quick look simply formalized the inevitable reality that anything but automatic application of a per se rule entails effectively a Rule of Reason Thus Cal Dental made it clear that the vast majority of the time an essentially thorough Rule of Reason will be required : The truth is that our categories of analysis of anticompetitive effect are less fixed than terms like “per se,” “quick look,” and “rule of reason” tend to make them appear . We have recognized, for example, that “there is often no bright line separating per se from Rule of Reason analysis,” since “considerable inquiry into market conditions” may be required before the application of any so-called “per se” condemnation is justified | per se illegal practice facially always or almost always restrict competition decision per se is preliminary rule of reason characterization and classification of conduct Rule of Reason two-step analysis per se characterization classification nature agreement whether it is unlawful per se instead further scrutiny survives this step not unreasonable per se proceed second fact-intensive analysis of actual effects refer both per se intermediate quick look away per se illegality practice quick look formalized inevitable reality anything but automatic application of a per se rule entails effectively a Rule of Reason Thus Cal Dental vast majority of the time essentially Rule of Reason : | ['A. The Per Se/Rule of Reason Distinction', '“The Court uses per se rules when the costs of judicial inquiry necessary to separate the beneficial from the detrimental instances of a practice exceed the gain from saving the relatively rare beneficial instances.”[224] As the Court has elucidated, conduct is deemed per se illegal when “the practice facially appears to be one that would always or almost always tend to restrict competition and decrease output.”[225] As Easterbrook points out, “[t]his is just another way of saying that per se rules should be used when they minimize the sum of the welfare loss from monopolization, the loss from false positives, and the costs of administering the rule.”[226]', 'The adoption of a presumption of illegality under the per se rule is a clear manifestation of the error-cost approach to antitrust. As the Court noted in Jefferson Parish:', '[T]he rationale for per se rules in part is to avoid a burdensome inquiry into actual market conditions in situations where the likelihood of anticompetitive conduct is so great as to render unjustified the costs of determining whether the particular case at bar involves anticompetitive conduct.[227]', 'Importantly, the decision to assess conduct under the per se rule is not distinct from the rule of reason analysis. Rather, it is the preliminary stage of any rule of reason analysis: the characterization and classification of conduct. As Professor Meese explains:', 'As applied in the courts, then, Standard Oil‘s Rule of Reason manifests itself in a two-step analysis. The first step—per se analysis—requires characterization and then classification of a restraint. Here courts inquire into the nature of the agreement and decide whether it is unlawful per se or instead subject to further scrutiny. If the restraint survives this step, that is, if it is not unreasonable per se, courts proceed to the second step, namely, a fact-intensive analysis of the actual effects of the restraint. While courts refer to this second step as a Rule of Reason analysis, both steps of the process attempt to answer the question put by Standard Oil, viz., is a restraint “unreasonably restrictive of competitive conditions.”[228]', 'As noted above, the error-cost framework counsels in favor of such an approach because it is mindful not only of the substantive accuracy of results, but also of the administrative costs of judicial decision-making and the deterrent effects of precedential judicial holdings. Animating the adoption of the per se approach, then, is the assumption that the probability times the cost of an erroneous determination (in terms of both any specific case, as well as its deterrent effect on subsequent economic activity) is smaller than the costs of repeated adjudication of the issue.[229]', 'Much like the rules vs. standards tradeoff, the application of the per se rule in lieu of a full rule of reason analysis countenances some degree of substantive error if the administrative cost savings are sufficiently high.', 'Per se rules thus require the Court to make broad generalizations about the social utility of particular commercial practices. The probability that anti-competitive consequences will result from a practice and the severity of those consequences must be balanced against its procompetitive consequences. Cases that do not fit the generalization may arise but a per se rule reflects the judgment that such cases are not sufficiently common or important to justify the time and expense necessary to identify them.[230]', 'Application of the per se standard is thus limited to circumstances where courts have experience with the conduct at issue, and where they can “predict with confidence that [the conduct] would be invalidated in all or almost all instances under the rule of reason.”[231]', 'One important implication of this is that the per se rule is rarely, if ever, appropriate in the face of novel conduct or in a nascent industry. “[I]t is only after considerable experience with certain business relationships that courts classify them as per se violations.”[232] Indeed, per se condemnation is appropriate only when a practice lacks any plausible procompetitive rationale,[233] which will rarely be the case where there is no existing knowledge or experience to undermine the plausibility of procompetitive explanations of novel conduct.', 'If there is no long track record of judicial experience establishing that a practice always or almost always lessens competition, then the practice should be subject to analysis under the rule of reason. But, by the same token, as courts learn more about an industry and challenged practices, they can and should amend their approach to reflect updated learning. Thus, the courts’ approach “may vary over time, if rule-of-reason analyses in case after case reach identical conclusions.”[234]', 'In this regard, the concern for the risk of error costs in the face of innovative conduct is ameliorated, because a finding that a novel practice (or an old practice in a new context) is anticompetitive may be made only after a rigorous analysis of all the facts and circumstances—that is, with greater information specific to the untested conduct at hand. Such a rule sensibly avoids unintentional condemnation of economically valuable activity where the full effects of that activity are simply unknown to the courts.[235]', 'The “inhospitality” tradition of antitrust, by contrast, saw an “extreme hostility toward any contractual restraint on the freedom of individuals or firms to engage in head-to-head rivalry.”[236] It also included an increased use of per se rules and suspicion of unfamiliar economic activity. As Professor Meese has masterfully detailed, the eventual (if incomplete. . .) shift away from the inhospitality tradition entailed the judicial acknowledgement of more advanced industrial organization economics—most notably, Transaction Costs Economics.[237] As new modes of economic organization came to pervade in the economy—and, more importantly, as new understandings of such conduct came to pervade in the academy—courts began to realize that per se condemnation was inappropriate for many “nonstandard” forms of conduct, even when they departed from the traditional “perfect competition” model.[238]', 'In general, the Transaction Cost Economics revolution has, ironically, increased the overall lack of certainty of the antitrust enterprise. To the extent that the pre-1970s inhospitality tradition could be defended by the extent of economic learning at the time, that was no longer the case after Williamson. Better understanding of the possibility of procompetitive explanations for previously condemned conduct helps to reduce uncertainty over those specific forms of conduct or situations, but it simultaneously decreases the certainty with which decisionmakers can reasonably condemn novel conduct they don’t understand.', 'As noted above, this applies most starkly in the context of the assessment of the per se rule.[239] Once it becomes clear that the simplifying presumptions of the per se rule were not more likely than not to produce accurate outcomes, the use of the presumption must decline not only in those specific cases, but in all cases of novel conduct or novel circumstances, absent specific learning to the contrary.', 'Fundamentally, as antitrust jurisprudence properly evolves, greater substantive economic learning can, and does, lead to changes in antitrust procedure. But the overarching consequence of more complicated, nuanced economic analysis is invariably a move toward greater complexity (and thus higher costs) in antitrust adjudication.', 'In the per se context, for example, the Court eventually introduced an intermediate process (quick look review) in an attempt to mitigate the increased costs of the overall move away from per se illegality necessitated by better economic understanding.[240] But in practice the quick look process most likely simply formalized the inevitable reality that anything but an automatic application of a per se rule entails effectively a Rule of Reason analysis.', 'Thus, in California Dental Association v. Federal Trade Commission the Court made it clear that quick look is an appropriate means of by-passing the rule of reason when “an observer with even a rudimentary understanding of economics could conclude that the arrangements in question would have an anticompetitive effect on customers and markets.” But that means that whenever underlying conduct presents novel or nuanced economic circumstances for which past presumptions and burden-shifting rules may not be appropriate—which is to say, the vast majority of the time conduct ends up being litigated—an essentially thorough Rule of Reason analysis will be required:', 'Although we have said that a challenge to a “naked restraint on price and output” need not be supported by “a detailed market analysis” in order to “requir[e] some competitive justification,” it does not follow that every case attacking a less obviously anticompetitive restraint (like this one) is a candidate for plenary market examination. The truth is that our categories of analysis of anticompetitive effect are less fixed than terms like “per se,” “quick look,” and “rule of reason” tend to make them appear. We have recognized, for example, that “there is often no bright line separating per se from Rule of Reason analysis,” since “considerable inquiry into market conditions” may be required before the application of any so-called “per se” condemnation is justified.[241]'] | [
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99de31643c6ec9c4d75d0f5aa9a662afcf1a66ca5c6a90b8f7b105d39ea07f86 | The distinction’s categorical | null | Sandeep Vaheesan 17, Regulations Counsel, Consumer Financial Protections Bureau, “Resurrecting “A Comprehensive Charter of Economic Liberty”: The Latent Power of the Federal Trade Commission,” University of Pennsylvania Journal of Business Law, Vol. 19, Iss. 3, pp 645-699 | cases in which a anticompetitive practice is the barrier to a competitive market , a conduct remedy —a prohibition may be sufficient cases in which the structure of the market is at issue a structural remedy divide the company or separate lines of business | In cases in which a specific anticompetitive practice is the principal barrier to a competitive market , a conduct remedy —a prohibition on this act — may be sufficient to restore competition . In cases in which the structure of the market is at issue , a structural remedy is likely to be sufficient the FTC pursue restructuring remedies that divide the company or separate related lines of business into separate firms | specific anticompetitive practice principal barrier competitive market conduct remedy prohibition this act sufficient to restore competition structure of the market structural remedy restructuring divide separate separate firms | ['To ensure the effectiveness of Section 5, the FTC must commit to simple structural remedies. In cases in which a specific anticompetitive practice is the principal barrier to a competitive market, a conduct remedy—a prohibition on this act—may be sufficient to restore competition. In cases in which the structure of the market is at issue, only a structural remedy is likely to be sufficient. A conduct remedy, in these matters, would typically involve a combination of prohibitions, requirements, and ongoing oversight by the FTC. Conduct remedies are likely to be incomplete and susceptible to evasion in spirit, if not in letter.230 In contrast, a structural remedy allows for a one-time fix that, if properly implemented, addresses the problem and removes the need for intrusive regulatory oversight in the future.231', 'The FTC should establish a strong presumption in favor of structural solutions in merger and other matters implicating market structure. In challenging anticompetitive mergers, the FTC should seek to stop mergers outright instead of modify them through divestitures. Divestitures have often failed to preserve competition even from a consumer welfare perspective.232 Some recent FTC-mandated divestitures in mergers have failed in spectacular fashion.233 Furthermore, these divestitures do nothing to stop the concentration of private economic and political power. Companies are permitted to grow in size through consolidation, so long as they sell assets in markets in which there is head-to-head competition. In dominant firm cases that seek to address the underlying market structure, the FTC should pursue restructuring remedies that, for example, divide the company into multiple competing entities or separate related lines of business into separate firms. '] | [
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f83430182d65cb1b70b2e46fbbbb681b619cea24bf5299da905bb9727a4857b2 | Practices are ongoing conduct---mergers violate---the merger itself is a one-off event, even if they’re evaluated because of their effects on ongoing practices. | null | Stanley Mosk 88, Judge, California Supreme Court, “Cal. ex rel. Van De Kamp v. Texaco,” 46 Cal. 3d 1147, Lexis [italics in original] | The statute defines "unfair competition" to mean business practice In so doing it requires a 'pattern' . . . of ongoing . . . conduct the A G challenges in this action the merger however, the merger itself cannot be characterized as " a 'pattern' ongoing a course or anything relevantly similar : it is rather a single act . That Texaco engaged in business practices in the past and may in the future is not enough : the complaint attacks not those practices , but only the merger | The statute defines "unfair competition" to mean , as relevant here, "unlawful, unfair or fraudulent business practice italics added In so doing it effectively requires what the court variously described in the leading case of Barquis as " a 'pattern' . . . of conduct ongoing . . . conduct a pattern of behavior and, "a course of conduct What the A ttorney G eneral challenges in this action is the merger Under the Barquis court's construction however, the merger itself cannot be characterized as " a 'pattern' . . . of conduct," " ongoing conduct," "a pattern of behavior," " a course of conduct," or anything relevantly similar : it is rather a single act . That the complaint, under the Attorney General's reading, alleges that Texaco engaged in certain unlawful, unfair, or fraudulent business practices in the past and may engage in other such practices in the future is simply not enough : the complaint attacks not those past or future practices , but only the merger | practice added requires Barquis 'pattern' . . . of conduct ongoing . . . conduct pattern course A G this action merger merger itself cannot a 'pattern' . . . of conduct," " ongoing conduct," "a pattern of behavior," " a course of conduct," or anything relevantly similar single act engaged business practices past may future not enough not those practices only the merger | ['The statute defines "unfair competition" to mean, as relevant here, "unlawful, unfair or fraudulent business practice . . . ." ( Bus. & Prof. Code, § 17200, italics added.) In so doing it effectively requires what the court variously described in the leading case of Barquis v. Merchants Collection Assn. (1972) 7 Cal.3d 94 [101 Cal.Rptr. 745, 496 P.2d 817], as "a \'pattern\' . . . of conduct" ( id. at p. 108), "ongoing . . . conduct" ( id. at p. 111), "a pattern of behavior" ( id. at p. 113), and, "a course of conduct" (ibid.).', 'What the Attorney General challenges in this action is the Texaco-Getty merger. Under the Barquis court\'s construction of the statute, however, the merger itself cannot be characterized as "a \'pattern\' . . . of conduct," "ongoing conduct," "a pattern of behavior," "a course of conduct," or anything relevantly similar: it is rather a single act. That the complaint, under [****156] the Attorney General\'s reading, alleges that Texaco engaged in certain unlawful, unfair, or fraudulent business practices in the past and may engage in other such practices in the future is simply not enough: the complaint attacks not those past or future practices, but only the merger.'] | [
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1e32097fea6eb1fc0844d9d6ac865cf084514a164cc18976e43f73fb9b3084fd | Prefer our ev. It’s from the ABA Antitrust Section’s Committee on Exemptions and Immunities, which literally wrote an authoritative text called “Handbook on the Scope of Antitrust!” It’s the T evidence gold standard. | null | Kruse et al. 19, Layne E. Kruse, Co-Chair; Melissa H. Maxman, Co-Chair; Vittorio Cottafavi, Vice Chair; Stephen M. Medlock, Vice Chair; David Shaw, Vice Chair; Travis Wheeler, Vice Chair; Lisa Peterson, Young Lawyer Representative; all on the Exemptions and Immunities Committee of the ABA Antitrust Section, “Long Range Plan, 2018-19,” American Bar Association, 3/18/19, https://www.americanbar.org/content/dam/aba/administrative/antitrust_law/lrps/2019/exemptions-immunities.pdf | Committee include government antitrust officials counsel and academics ensures diverse views on the scope of antitrust a high priority | we address important policy issues by Antitrust The Committee has 300 members Our members include government antitrust officials , private practitioners , corporate counsel and academics This ensures diverse views on the scope of antitrust We believe that tracking the scope of the antitrust laws must continue to be a high priority | important policy issues Antitrust 300 members government antitrust officials practitioners counsel academics diverse scope antitrust tracking scope of the antitrust laws continue high priority | ['I. Current State of Exemptions and Immunities Committee', 'Even though we are a relatively small Committee, we address important policy issues that might not otherwise be addressed by the Antitrust Section. While we often work on issues alongside the Legislation Committee, our scope reaches judicial, as well as statutory exemptions. Our Committee is the one place within the Section that focuses on the concerns that may lead Congress or the courts to carve out certain conduct from traditional antitrust proscriptions.', 'In the 2017-2018 program year, we drafted and submitted four in-depth Section Comments at the request of the Council; produced six committee programs; published three newsletters; completed one ABA Handbook and are well underway on a second one; cosponsored two Spring Meeting Programs; co-sponsored one podcast; and participated in a Women in Leadership videoconference.', 'In the 2018-19 program year, we will chair an approved Spring Meeting Program; are cosponsoring a second approved Program; and we have been asked to revisit one of the Comments that we produced in the previous year. We are also working on committee programs, podcasts, and publications.', 'Perhaps most importantly, we are proud of our diversity achievements. In 2017-18, one of the E&I Co-Chairs was a woman for the first time, and our Young Lawyer Representative was LGBTQ for the first time. This year, we continue with a woman Co-Chair, a woman YLR, and we have added the first Vice Chair from the state of South Carolina on any Section Committee.', 'A. Scope of Charter: What is Role of Committee?', 'The Exemptions and Immunities Committee is chartered to address judicially created immunities from the antitrust laws, such as the Noerr-Pennington doctrine, state action, implied immunities, and filed rate doctrines, as well as statutory exemptions, including, among others, the McCarran-Ferguson and Capper-Volstead Acts. The Committee also addresses international issues, such as the Foreign Trade Antitrust Improvements Act (“FTAIA”), and other doctrines, such as antitrust preemption and primary jurisdiction, that affect the application and extent of the antitrust laws. The Committee strives to be the first and best resource for information on the fundamental question of defining the scope of the antitrust laws.', "However, another key function of this Committee is an administrative role, rather than as a programming committee. This Committee serves as the de facto institutional memory before legislators and agencies for the Section's position on exemptions and immunities. The Section needs to have one place to look for what it has said in the past on exemption proposals, as well as commentary on DOJ or FTC attempts to narrow or expand exemptions. We believe this Committee has already served in that role and should serve in that role in the future. We want to improve on this function for the Section. We should have a Vice Chair designated as the point person to track prior comments and catalog the specific issues that have been raised. At the same time, we could develop a more standardized response. A related project would be a retrospective study of exemptions and their impact. We would join with International Task Force in its study of the impact of exemptions in other countries.", 'In short, the Committee should standardize the analysis of exemption proposals and reach out on the international front to catalog the differences in exemptions in different areas of the world.', 'B. Description of Reflective Evaluation of Membership Levels, Diversity, and Growth', 'The Committee currently has nearly 300 members, a 20% increase in membership in the last two years. Our members include government antitrust officials, private practitioners, corporate counsel and academics, and some practitioners based outside the United States. This variety of members ensures diverse views on the scope, applicability and appropriateness of antitrust exemptions and immunities.', 'Although other committees are larger, our Committee tends to include lawyers who specialize in specific antitrust issues. As most members of the Committee are members of other Section committees, the Committee may not be the primary committee that draws members into the Section. We believe that tracking the key issues surrounding the scope of the antitrust laws draws members of broader committees to also join E&I, and thus must continue to be a high priority for the Section.'] | [
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a98a76be42dbb52498dc8afc1b7c733fd6c9a31f72c5e4008e7b760f7e1cceb1 | They’re premier in the field | null | Jonathan B. Baker 19, Research Professor of Law, American University Washington College of Law, “Market Power in an Era of Antitrust,” The Antitrust Paradigm: Restoring a Competitive Economy, 2019, pp. 11–31 | the A B A Section of Antitrust Law — the premier gathering in the field | Annual attendance at the the A merican B ar A ssociation’s Section of Antitrust Law — the premier gathering in the field — now exceeds 3,000 | A B A Antitrust Law premier gathering in the field exceeds 3,000 | ['Antitrust norms, especially the objection to collusive conduct, are consistently endorsed and upheld by enforcers and courts, regardless of political affiliation.12 These norms have spread throughout the world, particularly since the 1990s, with the aid of a growing global antitrust community. Annual attendance at the spring meeting of the American Bar Association’s Section of Antitrust Law— the premier gathering in the field— now exceeds 3,000, a threefold increase over the low ebb in the late 1980s. Several new academic journals dedicated to antitrust law, economics, and policy were launched in the last decade.'] | [
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b1ddbe92ca4b0552c5a487f14025d9b2bc771c9982c3d544678d34946bf925e0 | It's exclusive AND based on the only work to have comprehensively assessed the ‘scope of antitrust laws.’ | null | Christopher L. Sagers 15, James A. Thomas Distinguished Professor of Law and Faculty Director of the Cleveland-Marshall Solo Practice Incubator at the Cleveland-Marshall College of Law, Cleveland State University, “Chapter 1: Introduction,” Handbook on the Scope of Antitrust, American Bar Association, Section of Antitrust Law, 2015, pp. 1–12 | No prior work considered the entire law of the scope of antitrust as one body , in any comprehensive and integrated way. Integrated treatment poses benefits we see limits only where there is some other public accountable oversight we have regulation or antitrust | The Supreme Court’s many emphatic generalizations over several decades suggest that antitrust applies very broadly . “[ A]ntitrust,” the Court has said, “[is] a fundamental national economic policy When describing the scope of antitrust law in the abstract , therefore, courts commonly speak in very broad terms Congress strike as broadly as it could ” in enacting the antitrust laws “[l]anguage more comprehensive” than those statutes contain “is difficult to conceive .” The breadth accorded the antitrust laws by the courts “reflects the felt indispensable role of antitrust policy in the maintenance of a free economy... .” One might then have thought that the scope of antitrust would be simple If the law applies broadly cases raising serious issues of applicability would be rare. But in fact it is not simple at all The scope of antitrust is governed by federal statutes and elaborate caselaw doctrines Numerous cases raise scope issues and thousands of opinions address them in meticulous, complex detail No prior work considered the entire law of the scope of antitrust as one body , in any comprehensive and integrated way. Integrated treatment poses certain benefits Scope issues are as old as antitrust itself They have also always been controversial . On the one hand, limits on the scope of antitrust are said to be disfavored despite the strong commitment to generality often stated we do in fact see limits on scope the courts and Congress have followed one consistent instinct in moderating struggles between the general and the specific. They typically will relax the preference for antitrust only where there is some other public , politically accountable oversight of a particular market exemptions reflect the instinct that we should have either regulation or antitrust in any given context, which is to say any context should be regulated either by direct government oversight or by competition through antitrust Thus Congress rarely displaced antitrust without setting up an administrative agency Likewise , where courts fashioned scope limitations they did so only where a regulatory agency oversaw rates or conduct The scope of federal antitrust law is governed by the Constitution the language of the antitrust statutes themselves , and the language of other federal statutes | generalizations antitrust very broadly national economic policy scope abstract commonly very broad terms broadly as it could difficult to conceive scope of antitrust simple broadly fact not simple at all scope antitrust governed by federal statutes and caselaw doctrines Numerous cases scope issues thousands opinions meticulous, complex detail entire one body any comprehensive integrated way. Integrated treatment poses benefits Scope as old as antitrust itself controversial limits said disfavored generality stated do in fact see limits on scope relax only other public , politically accountable oversight of a particular market exemptions either regulation or antitrust either direct government oversight competition antitrust rarely displaced antitrust administrative courts scope limitations only regulatory agency scope of federal antitrust law Constitution language of the antitrust statutes themselves other federal statutes | ['The Supreme Court’s many emphatic generalizations over several decades suggest that antitrust applies very broadly. “[A]ntitrust,” the Court has said, “[is] a fundamental national economic policy.”1 It is no less than a “charter of freedom”2 and our very “Magna Carta of free enterprise.”3 When describing the scope of antitrust law in the abstract, therefore, courts commonly speak in very broad terms. Because “Congress intended to strike as broadly as it could” in enacting the antitrust laws,4 “[l]anguage more comprehensive” than those statutes contain “is difficult to conceive.”5 The breadth accorded the antitrust laws by the courts “reflects the felt indispensable role of antitrust policy in the maintenance of a free economy... .”6', 'One might then have thought that the scope of antitrust would be a simple affair. If the law applies so broadly, then cases raising serious issues of applicability would be rare. But in fact it is not simple at all. The scope of antitrust is governed by dozens of federal statutes and by a variety of elaborate caselaw doctrines. Numerous cases every year raise difficult scope issues, and many hundreds or thousands of reported opinions now address them, often in meticulous, complex detail. The scope of antitrust has morphed into a large, distinct, and complex body of law.', 'No prior work appears to have considered the entire law of the scope of antitrust as one body, in any comprehensive and integrated way. Integrated treatment poses certain benefits. A primary goal of this book is to aid practitioners, because several of the scope doctrines have become complex and uncertain, and their interrelationships can be especially challenging.', 'Integrated treatment might also be useful for public policy purposes, given that scope issues have generated frequent reform efforts and debate.7 While this Handbook-takes no position on normative matters, a problem in those debates has been their oftentimes great complexity. As one example, commentators have criticized results in which different doctrines are applied in different ways to similar facts,8 and the Supreme Court, too, has occasionally indicated that scope doctrines applicable to different circumstances should nevertheless be theoretically consistent.9 Addressing questions of that nature, however, has been difficult simply because doctrinal scope issues are ordinarily considered in isolation, a fact that in itself reflects the complexity and scale of the issues. In those rare cases in which conflicts among scope doctrines are considered, courts have felt unable or unauthorized to resolve them.10', 'A. Why Are There Limits on the Scope of Antitrust?', 'Scope issues are as old as antitrust itself.11 They have also always been controversial. On the one hand, limits on the scope of antitrust are said to be disfavored. Traditionally, the courts observed a strong presumption against judge-made limits, in all but a few special situations,12 and there has been something of a consensus among commentators that courts should fashion limits with caution.13 Explicit statutory limits are disfavored as well. The courts read them narrowly,14 the enforcement agencies have long opposed them,15 and they have been criticized by each of the many blue-ribbon antitrust review commissions established by the President and Congress over the past several decades.16 The ABA Section of Antitrust Law has maintained a consistent opposition to them for many years.17 Other nations have widely come to hold similar views, having repealed large numbers of antitrust exemptions in recent decades.18', 'On the other hand, scope limits of various kinds have always existed. Congress explicitly limited antitrust by statute as early as 1914,19 and did so many more times during the rise of organized labor20 and the price-and-entry regulatory regimes of the Progressive and New Deal eras.21 Judge-made limits were likewise recognized as early as 1922, again mainly as a consequence of the new regulatory regimes.22 As new waves of health and safety regulation emerged during the 1960s and 1970s,23 defendants sought antitrust clemency with some increasing success.24 Courts have also long sought to protect the political process from antitrust, even though businesses have frequently turned to that arena for advantage within the marketplace.25 ', 'Interestingly, most other nations with competition laws have similar histories of complex scope limits. The European Union (EU), for example, built a process for exemption into the very first treaty creating its competition law,26 and much of the work of its competition authority has involved administration of that process. The national laws of several EU member states likewise included various exclusions before creation of the EU,27 and exemptions exist in Australia, Canada, Japan, and South Korea.28', 'This long history, in which the generally broad applicability of the antitrust laws has been fraught with controversial disputes, can be seen as a struggle between the general and the specific. For the most part, substantive antitrust insists on generality and purports to oppose special treatment for the idiosyncrasies of particular markets.29 Antitrust presumes, in other words, that in respects important to antitrust, markets are mostly the same. Thus, in the absence of an exemption, the U.S, antitrust laws apply to all exchanges of goods or services for consideration, anywhere within the domestic reach of Congress’s interstate commerce power, and quite broadly to overseas conduct as well, where anticompetitive effects are felt in the United States.30 Yet, that broad application, especially during periods in which antitrust laws were applied more strictly and many kinds of conduct were held per se illegal, invites arguments that some contexts simply cannot be subject to one-size-fits-all policies.31 There have been times, as during the heyday of “destructive competition” reasoning during the first part of the 20th century, when industries like transportation, communications, and insurance were quite successful in arguing that special economic problems prevented them from performing well under the rules of competition that antitrust imposed elsewhere.32 Similar arguments have found some traction in more recent times, even as during this purportedly deregulatory age we generally claim to have disposed of the longstanding fear of destructive competition. For example, recent, explicit antitrust exemptions now protect standard setting organizations,33 the placement program for medical residents,34 and charitable gift annuities.35 ', 'Accordingly, despite the strong commitment to generality often stated, we do in fact see limits on scope. For the most part, the courts and Congress have followed one consistent instinct in moderating these struggles between the general and the specific. They typically will relax the preference for antitrust only where there is some other public, politically accountable oversight of a particular market. In effect, antitrust exemptions usually reflect the instinct that we should have either regulation or antitrust in any given context, which is to say that any context should be regulated either by direct government oversight or by competition kept healthy through antitrust.36 Thus, at least traditionally, Congress rarely displaced antitrust without setting up an administrative agency to take its place. Likewise, where courts fashioned scope limitations, they generally did so only where a regulatory agency oversaw rates or conduct (as with the filed rate doctrine) or where the challenged conduct was actually the conduct of a government entity itself (as with the state action doctrine).', 'B. Sources of the Scope of Antitrust Law', 'The scope of federal antitrust law is governed by three separate authorities-: (1) the U.S. Constitution, (2) the language of the antitrust statutes themselves, and (3) the language of other federal statutes and regulations.'] | [
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396c28e9ecf957d2a165f1155fa10dce90df3657ddbe415459aa5b23ed506448 | Independently---a ‘substantial increase’ must be change in kind, not merely magnitude. | null | Jeffrey S. Ross 18, Judge, California Superior Court, San Francisco County, “People v. Lawson,” 2018 Cal. App. Unpub. LEXIS 8132, Lexis | requirements of substantial increase are determined by consideration of circumstances qualitative rather than quantitative | there must be substantial increase The requirements of substantial increase are determined by consideration of circumstances in a qualitative rather than quantitative evaluation | substantial increase substantial increase qualitative rather than quantitative evaluation | ['To prove the aggravated kidnapping allegation, there must be nonconsensual movement of the victim that is not merely incidental to the commission of the underlying crime, and the movement must substantially increase the risk of harm over and above that necessarily present in the underlying crime itself. (Martinez, supra, 20 Cal.4th at pp. 232-233.) The requirements of substantial movement and substantial increase in risk are separate, but interrelated, and are determined by consideration of the totality of the circumstances in a qualitative rather than quantitative evaluation. (People v. Dominguez (2006) 39 Cal.4th 1141, 1152, 47 Cal. Rptr. 3d 575, 140 P.3d 866 (Dominguez).)'] | [
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bb1fe2867ce8d8315a8129d7f46418356145642c03352d46cc7a5428b72c11b2 | 1. LEGAL PRECISION---if it doesn’t list a specific exemption or immunity adjusted by the plan, it’s not good enough. Congress intended the laws to reach all conduct touched by the Commerce Clause; deviations from this default must be clear and explicit. | null | Christopher L. Sagers 21, James A. Thomas Distinguished Professor of Law and Faculty Director of the Cleveland-Marshall Solo Practice Incubator at the Cleveland-Marshall College of Law, Cleveland State University, “Part XI: The Scope of Antitrust,” Examples & Explanations for Antitrust, 3rd edition, Wolters Kluwer, 02/24/2021, pp. 379–460 | antitrust reach the full extent of “trade or commerce” Congress intended to strike as broadly as it could language more comprehensive is difficult to conceive The scope of antitrust has exemptions several purely judge-made also 30 explicit statutory scope where no exemption is available cuts very broadly . The basic question is the boundaries of “trade or commerce" | ANTITRUST IS THE GREAT SWISS CHEESE In the abstract, antitrust appears to apply broadly it seems at first glance to reach to the full extent of the Congress’s constitutional power over interstate commerce . Sherman by their terms apply to “trade or commerce” that occurs anywhere in the interstate and foreign commerce of the U S and federal courts have taken that language to express a congressional intent that antitrust be very broadly applied . The inclusive modern definition is the natural culmination of the Supreme Court’s long -held belief that “ Congress intended to strike as broadly as it could language more comprehensive is difficult to conceive the broad definition given to the terms “trade” and “commerce” for various purposes at common law the courts have explicitly held antitrust meant to incorporate those ideas The scope of antitrust turns out to be surprisingly complex has exemptions even the very broad modem conception of “trade or commerce” under the Sherman Act does not reach everything that could be regulated under Congress’s power it excludes purely charitable or gratuitous exchanges and the game of professional baseball . It also has international limits several carve outs from the scope have been developed through purely judge-made case law. The most important is a set of rules that prevent antitrust from applying to the political process The Court developed other case-law exemptions , notably for conduct already regulated by some statute other than antitrust and for labor activities Congress also tinkered quite a lot with the scope of antitrust, usually in much more specific ways It has done so normally at the request of the affected industry There are now upwards of 30 explicit statutory antitrust exemptions . Among a few dozen antitrust does not apply to the “business of insurance ,” ocean shipping , exporting cartels the medical resident matching program, international airline alliances, the granting of need-based financial aid by universities, the fixing of interest rates for charitable gift annuities, or everybody simply must love this one the marketing of hog cholera serum While there are many specific exceptions from the scope of antitrust it remains the case that where no statutory or case-law exemption is available , antitrust cuts very , very broadly . The basic question of its scope is to ask where the boundaries might lie of the “trade or commerce" that occurs “among the several States, or with foreign nations," courts define the scope of “ trade or commerce ” very broadly Even early decisions defined the “commerce” subject to the statute to include any "purchase, sale, or exchange and said it should be construed liberally to give the statute its intended effect not as] a technical legal conception , but [as] a practical one, drawn from the course of business any exchange of money for a good or service , between any persons , is in “trade or commerce.” an agreement among nonprofit universities concerning need-based scholarship funds was a contract relating to “trade or commerce.” Despite what might have appeared to be genuine charity , the court had no real trouble with the issue . The defendants conceded that the giving of educational services in exchange for money is "commerce,” regardless of the nonprofit form it is really only in limited, exotic circumstances that modem courts have found conduct simply not within "trade or commerce” for antitrust purposes. the solicitation of [charitable] contributions... is not trade or commerce definitions of " commerce .” focus on the nature of the conduct challenged not the nature of the person or entity that engages in it. The Supreme Court has made very clear that the fact that a party is organized as a nonprofit entity is irrelevant “[t]here is no immunity [from antitrust] conferred by the form of the organization | ANTITRUST IS THE GREAT SWISS CHEESE abstract, antitrust appears to apply broadly first glance full extent of the Congress’s constitutional power over interstate commerce terms “trade or commerce” anywhere interstate foreign U S federal courts very broadly applied modern long -held belief intended strike as broadly as it could more comprehensive difficult to conceive explicitly antitrust incorporate those ideas scope complex exemptions could excludes charitable gratuitous professional baseball international carve outs political process other exemptions already regulated statute other than antitrust labor also specific affected industry statutory antitrust exemptions insurance shipping exporting everybody simply must love this one specific exceptions scope remains the case no statutory or case-law exemption is available , antitrust cuts very , very broadly basic question where the boundaries might lie of the “trade or commerce" that occurs “among the several States, or with foreign nations," trade or commerce very broadly include any "purchase, sale, or exchange construed liberally not technical legal conception practical course of business any exchange of money for a good or service any persons relating to “trade or commerce.” appeared charity no real trouble with the issue limited, exotic circumstances solicitation not commerce conduct not party irrelevant no immunity [from antitrust] form of the organization | ['§20.1 ANTITRUST IS THE GREAT SWISS CHEESE', 'In the abstract, antitrust appears to apply broadly, so much so that it seems at first glance to reach to the full extent of the Congress’s constitutional power over interstate commerce. Sherman Act §§1 and 2 by their terms apply to “trade or commerce” that occurs anywhere in the interstate and foreign commerce of the United States, and the federal courts have taken that language to express a congressional intent that antitrust be very broadly applied. The inclusive modern definition is perhaps the natural culmination of the Supreme Court’s long-held belief that “Congress intended to strike as broadly as it could in §1 of the Sherman Act,’ - a view it developed because “language more comprehensive” than that in §1 “is difficult to conceive."- It probably also reflects the broad definition given to the terms “trade” and “commerce” for various purposes at common law, as the courts have explicitly held that antitrust was meant to incorporate those ideas.', 'But having said all that, antitrust actually turns out to be subject to quite a bristling profusion of little exemptions and limitations, and each of those limits has spawned its own case law, history, and idiosyncrasies. The scope of antitrust, in other words, turns out to be a surprisingly complex little body of law in its own right. Indeed, this book devotes four full chapters to it (Chapters 20-23) and doesn’t even cover it all. An interesting fact is that 382 this is also true of the competition laws of most nations that have them. The European Union (EU), for example, for as long as it has had a competition law, has had a procedure in place by which specific industries can seek “block exemptions” from EU competition law. As just a few examples, the EU for many years recognized exemptions for insurance and ocean shipping, both of which have also long enjoyed exemptions from U.S. antitrust.', 'First of all, even the very broad modem conception of “trade or commerce” under the Sherman Act does not reach everything that could be regulated under Congress’s power. Notably, it excludes purely charitable or gratuitous exchanges of goods or services, and notoriously, as the lingering result of a historical accident, it excludes the game of professional baseball. It also has international limits. While U.S. antitrust does reach some conduct that occurs overseas, the rules by which it does are complicated and result from a surprisingly political, long-standing compromise involving U.S. importing and exporting interests. Discussing these features of the basic scope of antitrust will consume the rest of this chapter. ', 'Moreover, several large carve outs from the scope of antitrust have been developed through a body of purely judge-made case law. The most important of these is a set of rules that prevent antitrust from applying to the political process, a problem discussed in Chapter 21. Imagine that the owners of railroads operating in a given state agree to collectively urge the state’s legislature to prohibit the shipping of cargo within the state by semi truck. If the legislature complies, the result would be patently anticompetitive and contrary to the policy of the antitrust laws. But for federal antitrust to prohibit it would also be quite a surprising result that was likely unintended by Congress and would also probably impinge on political participation protected by the First Amendment. So, as we will see, the Supreme Court has provided through a set of rules known as the political “immunities” that antitrust mostly does not apply to this sort of thing.', 'The Court has developed other case-law exemptions, notably for conduct already regulated by some statute other than antitrust (discussed in Chapter 22), and for labor union activities (discussed in Chapter 23).', 'Finally, Congress has also tinkered quite a lot with the scope of antitrust, usually in much more specific ways than the courts have done. It has done so normally at the request of the affected industry and often over vigorous protest from that industry’s customers, the government enforcement agencies, and other observers. There are now upwards of 30 explicit statutory antitrust exemptions. Among a few dozen other filings, antitrust does not apply to the “business of insurance,” ocean shipping, exporting cartels that send products into foreign commerce, the medical resident matching program, international airline alliances, the granting of need-based financial aid by universities, the fixing of interest rates for charitable gift annuities, or — everybody simply must love this one — the marketing of hog cholera serum. Also, in many cases in which antitrust still applies, Congress has 383 modified it by statute. For example, while local government entities can be antitrust defendants, they cannot be sued for money damages. Likewise, research and production joint ventures can be sued only under the rule of reason and can only face single (not treble) damages. The handling and significance of these many statutory exemptions will be discussed briefly in Chapter 22, which more generally addresses antitrust in regulated industries.', '§20.2 THE BASIC SCOPE OF ANTITRUST: THE “COMMERCE” REQUIREMENT, THE INTERSTATE REQUIREMENT, AND THE REACH OF THE CLAYTON AND FTC ACTS', '§20.2.1 “Trade or Commerce” in General; Its Exclusion of Charity and Gratuity; and That Awkward Orphan of Antitrust, Professional Baseball', 'While, again, there are many specific exceptions from the scope of antitrust, it remains the case that where no statutory or case-law exemption is available, antitrust cuts very, very broadly. The basic question of its scope is to ask where the boundaries might lie of the “trade or commerce" that occurs “among the several States, or with foreign nations," which is explicitly referenced in Sherman Act §1 and 2.', 'First, observe that, by the apparent indication of the explicit language, the requirement that the conduct occur in interstate or foreign commerce is logically distinct from the requirement that the conduct constitutes "trade or commerce." The indication seems to be that conduct can be “trade-like” or “commercial" without being in interstate or foreign commerce, and vice versa. Fortunately, at least one of these requirements is easy. It is now clear that domestic conduct is within “interstate” commerce any time it is within the interstate commerce jurisdiction of Congress under the Commerce Clause of the U.S. Constitution. Whether it can be within "foreign" commerce turns out to be a fair bit more complex, but that will be discussed in §20.3.', 'Whether conduct is “trade or commerce" raises a different question, and it is the question of whether the conduct is the sort that Congress intended to be subject to mandatory competition. Modem courts define the scope of “trade or commerce” very broadly. Even early decisions defined the “commerce” subject to the statute to include any "purchase, sale, or exchange of commodities,"^ and they said it should be construed liberally, 384 to give the statute its intended effect — it should “not [be treated as] a technical legal conception, but [as] a practical one, drawn from the course of business.”^ More importantly, modem courts have held generally that any exchange of money for a good or service, between any persons, is in “trade or commerce.”^ In one influential case, United States v. Brown Univ., 5 F.3d 658 (3d Cir. 1993), the Third Circuit held that an agreement among nonprofit universities concerning need-based scholarship funds was a contract relating to “trade or commerce.” Despite what might have appeared to be genuine charity, the court had no real trouble with the issue. The defendants conceded that the giving of educational services in exchange for money is "commerce,” regardless of the defendants’ nonprofit form of organization. And, the court wrote,', '[t]he amount of financial aid not only impacts, but directly determines the amount that a needy student must pay to receive an education at [the defendant schools]. The financial aid therefore is part of the commercial process of setting tuition.', 'Id. at 665.', 'In fact, it is really only in limited, exotic circumstances that modem courts have found conduct simply not within "trade or commerce” for antitrust purposes. A leading case is Dedication and Everlasting Love to Animals v. Humane Socy. of the United States, Inc., 50 F.3d 710 (9th Cir. 1995). The plaintiff was a California charitable organization devoted to animal welfare. It sued the Humane Society, a national umbrella organization for nonprofit entities committed to similar purposes. The plaintiff’s theory of liability was in effect that the Humane Society, a "competitor” for the same charitable donations on which the plaintiff relied to fund its operations, had taken various actions to steal away the "market” for donations. While first acknowledging that no conclusion could be drawn from the fact that the parties were organized as nonprofit corporations, the court seemed fairly appalled at the very idea of the plaintiff’s theory of liability. “If statutory language is to be given even a modicum of meaning,” wrote the court, "the solicitation of [charitable] contributions... is not trade or commerce, and the Sherman Act has no application to such activity.” Id. at 712.', 'Let us observe one important fact about these definitions of "commerce.” They focus on the nature of the conduct that is challenged, not the nature of the person or entity that engages in it. The Supreme Court has 385 made very clear that the fact that a party is organized as a nonprofit entity is irrelevant. More generally, the courts and commentators are in wide agreement that “[t]here is no immunity [from antitrust] conferred by the form of the organization." Accordingly, the fact that a party is organized as, say, a not-for-profit entity or an unincorporated association or in some other seemingly noncommercial form is essentially irrelevant. This is so because such entities can have incentives and pose policy concerns that are the same as for-profit businesses. Also, if businesses could avoid antitrust merely by reorganizing in a certain way, it would create a large loophole in antitrust.'] | [
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046517827af90a64881388dd6fa9f62f3e52e984c1a617616fb54461a62d0f62 | The burden of proof should be heavily AFF | null | Sam C. Ehrlich 21, J.D./Ph.D., Assistant Professor of Legal Studies, Boise State University College of Business and Economics, “Remembering the Lessons of the Baseball Exemption in NCAA v. Alston,” 48 Rutgers L. Rec. 222, 2021, WestLaw | limited reading is consistent with disfavor of implicit exemptions repeatedly established a heavy presumption Immunity from antitrust is not lightly implied Rule of Reason analysis is still required even if that “can be applied in the twinkling of an eye | Supporting this much more limited reading is entirely consistent with long-standing disfavor of implicit exemptions to the antitrust laws cases have repeatedly established that there is a heavy presumption against implicit exemptions Immunity from antitrust laws is not lightly implied holding was clear that Rule of Reason analysis is still required to weigh that justification against anticompetitive costs even if that analysis “can sometimes be applied in the twinkling of an eye Instead the Petitioners seek a ruling that all restrictions are procompetitive , thus automatically outweighing any alleged harm | limited reading consistent long-standing disfavor implicit exemptions repeatedly established heavy presumption against implicit exemptions Immunity not lightly implied clear Rule of Reason analysis is still required weigh that justification against anticompetitive costs even if that analysis “can sometimes be applied in the twinkling of an eye Instead all procompetitive automatically | ["Supporting this much more limited reading of Board of Regents is entirely consistent with this Court's long-standing disfavor of implicit, court-made exemptions to the antitrust laws.37 [FOOTNOTE 37 BEGINS] See, e.g., Goldfarb v. Va. State Bar, 421 U.S. 773, 777 (1975) ( “[O]ur cases have repeatedly established that there is a heavy presumption against implicit exemptions [to § 1 of the Sherman Act]”); FPC, 369 U.S. at 485 (“Immunity from the antitrust laws is not lightly implied.”) While the Supreme Court held in American Needle v. NFL, 560 U.S. 183 (2010), that “teams that need to cooperate are not trapped by antitrust law” as their shared interests “provide[] perfectly sensible justification for making a host of collective decisions,” that holding was clear that Rule of Reason analysis is still required to weigh that justification against its anticompetitive costs, even if that analysis “can sometimes be applied in the twinkling of an eye.” Id. at 202-04 (quoting Board of Regents, 468 U.S. at 110). Instead, the Alston Petitioners seek a ruling--based on the Seventh Circuit's holdings in Agnew, 683 F.3d at 341-42, and Deppe, 893 F.3d at 501-02--that all restrictions of the college athlete labor market in furtherance of amateurism are presumptively procompetitive, thus automatically outweighing any alleged anticompetitive harm put before the court. This request is not consistent with American Needle. [FOOTNOTE 37 ENDS] A wholesale “procompetitive presumption”--as formulated by the Seventh Circuit in Agnew v. NCAA38 and applied in Deppe v. NCAA39--is too close to a blanket exemption from the Sherman Act to be warranted under the law. By contrast, the Ninth Circuit's approach in this litigation, which places the onus on the Petitioners to prove that their alleged procompetitive rationales-- including the defense and maintenance of amateurism--outweigh the clear anticompetitive effects of the Petitioners' price fixing schemes, is the approach that should be adopted moving forward."] | [
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b55ba466ec2d3c5d3516705a7ed6150072f8ffe916d7f101a2d13f84be371d54 | It solves better, does not modify antitrust law, AND concessions to appease regulators would go beyond the plan in an effort to stave off binding rulings. | null | Niamh Dunne 15, lecturer in Law at King’s College London, “Competition Law as Regulation,” Competition Law and Economic Regulation: Making and Managing Markets, Cambridge University Press, 2015, pp. 69–138 | Consent decrees conclude antitrust actions on a consensual basis through concessions agreed with government easier to enforce as government can initiate contempt proceedings rather than a fresh complaint establishes the defendant breached the decree not substantive antitrust For defendants , settlement avoids risk of adverse holding gains control over remedies avoids collateral estoppel decree is not admission of guilt finding of breach in one jurisdiction encourage enforcement in other s decrees develop novel theories of antitrust formally , establish no law prudent firms respect parameters established by the decree though the theory is not law as such the effect restrict other firms , gain soft law status Remedies go beyond the scope of antitrust law to improve the market | Consent decrees are used by the federal antitrust authorities to conclude civil antitrust actions on a consensual basis the FTC pursues ‘cease-and-desist’ orders under its administrative procedures Consent decrees, accordingly, enable defendants to settle litigation through concessions agreed with the government agency. FTC decrees can be approved by the FTC Commissioners without additional judicial involvement FTC decrees the agency engages in a process of consultation and public-interest analysis prior to accepting any settlement FTC decrees routinely contain a standard clause waiv ing all rights to seek judicial review , however, meaning th at petitions for review are virtually impossible Why would a defendant opt against fighting a case, but instead choose to settle by consent decree ? Settlement provide considerable benefits A key advantage is the procedural economy gains of settlement , in terms of both monetary and institutional resource savings: it is quicker and cheaper for prosecutors and defendants to settle than to litigate fully the underlying market problems can be remedied more quickly than where a case is pursued to full trial . Assuming that the public interest is equally well served by correcting market failures it may be sensible to prioritise the former under a consent decree over the latter in a drawn-out liability procedure The FTC has an explicit preference for settlement: it aims ‘to secure an effective order – by consent if feasible Consent decrees are also easier to enforce if there is reoccurrence of prohibited behaviour, as the government can simply initiate clarification or contempt proceedings rather than filing – and proving – a fresh complaint A finding of contempt on this basis establishes only that the defendant breached the decree saying not hing abo ut the compatibility of its behaviour with substantive antitrust For defendants , settlement provides a mechanism for managing risk . Settling an antitrust investigation avoids the risk of an adverse holding , while the defendant gains significant control over the remedies imposed the defendant also avoids collateral estoppel in follow-on actions for the same violation . Whereas a final antitrust judgment becomes prima facie ev idence of guilt in subsequent antitrust litigation, the antitrust rules expressly prohibit collateral estoppel for consent decrees most consent decree s state explicitly that settlement is not an admission of guilt This makes settlement attractive . A finding of breach by public enforcers in one jurisdiction may also encourage enforcement activity by authorities in other jurisdiction s which further increases the value of settlement decrees that develop novel theories of antitrust harm Given that decrees contain no findings of liability and thus, formally , establish no law , such decrees do not contain authoritative statements of antitrust in the same manner as litigated judgments consent decrees are, effectively, contractual bargains It is generally accepted , nonetheless, that ‘[s]ettlements in the shadow of the law reflect the content of the law’. The Court emphasising a continuing quasi-judicial function resulting from their inherently judicial nature because the content of consent decrees is not determined by antitrust alone , such instruments can be used to address anticompetitive behaviour falling outside the established categories of antitrust infringement the principle of freedom of contract mandates that the parties should be free to structure these arrangements however each deems most advantageous Although not a rule of law confers greater weight than a merely speculative argument advanced in private litigation . It represents the considered view of the enforcement agency that such conduct violates antitrust and merits enforcement action , and, although the underlying antitrust claim does not receive judicial endorsement, the decree provisions that incorporate the novel case theory require court approval. This ambiguity means prudent firms might be advised to respect the parameters established obliquely by the consent decree Consequently, al though the novel theory is not antitrust law as such , its inclusion within a consent decree may confer upon it the effect of restrict ing the commercial freedom of other firms , without any substantive legal basis the underlying theory escapes judicial scrutiny and challenge providing ostensibly valid grounds for future enforcement and gain ing soft law status as established law A policy against settlement by decree best protects the integrity of public enforcement and substantive antitrust law the hybridised law-contract status of consent decrees, and the fact that decrees are largely disconnected from the constraints of conventional antitrust doctrine , contributes to antitrust settlements as a flexible tool for bureaucratic market governance , which is distinguishable from the legalistic model of antitrust enforcement . The content of remedies can differ markedly from typical antitrust remedies Remedies not infrequently go beyond the scope of antitrust law the objective is not to address discrete instances of anticompetitive behaviour, but rather to improve the functioning of the market generally . Decree provisions may place defendants under affirmative duties that require on-going monitoring to ensure compliance , and so many decrees also establish on-going judicial or governmental supervision mechanisms US courts have effectively accepted this quasi-regulatory role for consent decrees consent decrees facilitate the application of antitrust in a strategic manner to pursue market objectives and in particular to achieve market structures | federal antitrust authorities conclude antitrust consensual basis FTC ‘cease-and-desist’ orders administrative procedures defendants settle litigation concessions agreed government FTC without additional judicial involvement FTC consultation public-interest analysis routinely standard clause waiv rights to seek judicial review petitions review impossible Why settle ? considerable benefits key advantage procedural economy gains of settlement monetary institutional quicker cheaper prosecutors and defendants settle litigate fully market problems more quickly pursued to full trial equally correcting market failures prioritise the former consent decree latter drawn-out liability procedure explicit preference consent if feasible easier to enforce reoccurrence clarification contempt proceedings rather fresh complaint breached the decree not compatibility of its behaviour with substantive antitrust defendants managing risk Settling avoids adverse holding significant control remedies imposed also collateral estoppel follow-on actions same violation final prima facie ev of guilt subsequent decree explicitly not an admission of guilt attractive other s further develop novel theories of antitrust harm Given no findings of liability formally no law not authoritative statements of antitrust litigated judgments contractual bargains generally accepted shadow of the law content Court continuing quasi-judicial function judicial nature not determined by antitrust alone address anticompetitive behaviour falling outside the established categories of antitrust infringement freedom of contract however each deems most advantageous not rule of law greater merely speculative argument private litigation considered view of the enforcement agency violates antitrust merits enforcement action judicial decree provisions incorporate ambiguity prudent firms respect the parameters established obliquely by the consent decree though not law as such inclusion within a consent decree confer upon it effect restrict other firms substantive legal basis escapes judicial scrutiny challenge ostensibly valid grounds future enforcement soft law status established law by decree best protects integrity of public enforcement substantive antitrust law hybridised law-contract status disconnected constraints of conventional antitrust doctrine flexible tool bureaucratic market governance distinguishable from the legalistic model of antitrust enforcement content remedies differ markedly typical beyond the scope of antitrust law objective not discrete instances improve the functioning of the market generally affirmative duties on-going monitoring to ensure compliance judicial governmental supervision mechanisms US courts effectively accepted facilitate strategic manner pursue market objectives achieve market structures | ['(i) The American experience: consent decrees in US antitrust', 'Consent decrees are used by the federal antitrust authorities, the DOJ and FTC, to conclude civil antitrust actions on a consensual basis. As noted, the bulk of US antitrust enforcement occurs as private damages actions, which do not result in consent decrees; instead, private plaintiffs ‘take their triple damage awards and run’.119 The DOJ (but not the FTC) may also pursue antitrust investigations as criminal actions, and, again, consent decrees are unavailable in such cases. Civil enforcement by the DOJ involves suits in equity brought in federal court,120 whereas the FTC pursues ‘cease-and-desist’ orders, equivalent to prospective equitable relief, under its administrative procedures.121 Consent decrees, accordingly, enable (non-cartel) defendants to settle litigation through concessions agreed with the government agency.', 'Consent decrees as utilised by the DOJ are judicial orders, which must be approved by a federal court; whereas FTC decrees can be approved by the FTC Commissioners without additional judicial involvement. Under the Tunney Act,122 DOJ decrees are subject to a public consultation procedure that is intended to prevent mere ‘judicial rubber-stamping’ of settlements;123 following this, the court determines whether approval is in the public interest. This process has been praised as providing a mechanism by which to identify and deter abuse of process, increase public transparency, facilitate third-party input, and enable courts to eliminate ambiguous or unenforceable provisions ex ante.124 Yet the extent to which federal judges review the substance of proposed decrees is disputed,125 and, indeed, the appropriate scope of this judicial discre- tion is a contentious question.126 In Microsoft I, the DC Court of Appeals held that courts should, generally, accept proposed relief if the resulting settlement is ‘within the reaches of the public interest’, which is distinct from the solution ‘that will best serve society’.127 The Court thus acknow- ledged the inherent tension within the Tunney Act process: rejection of a decree on the basis that greater concessions are available would force the competition agency either to drop the complaint entirely, leaving anti- competitive practices unremedied, or to pursue a case theory or seek remedies that it had deemed unnecessary or unwise.128 Review under the Tunney Act remains a precondition for acceptance of any consent decree, but in reality presents a low hurdle where the government and defendant reach agreement on acceptable terms.129 While FTC decrees are not subject to Tunney Act scrutiny,130 the agency engages in a similar process of consultation and public-interest analysis prior to accepting any settlement.131 FTC decrees routinely contain a standard clause waiving all rights to seek judicial review, however, meaning that petitions for review are virtually impossible.132 ', 'Why would a defendant – or, indeed, a government agency – opt against fighting a case, but instead choose to settle by consent decree? Settlement can provide considerable benefits for both enforcement agencies and firms under investigation. A key advantage is the procedural economy gains of settlement, in terms of both monetary and institutional resource savings: it is quicker and cheaper for both prosecutors and defendants to settle than to litigate fully. Enforcement agencies see benefit because the underlying market problems can be remedied more quickly than where a case is pursued to full trial. Assuming that the public interest is equally well served by correcting market failures rather than punishing antitrust transgressors, it may be sensible to prioritise the former under a consent decree over the latter in a drawn-out liability procedure. The DOJ expressly seeks relief that will ‘stop the illegal practices alleged in the complaint, prevent their renewal, and restore competition to the state that would have existed had the violation not occurred’,133 and thus prioritises prospective improvements in competition over retrospective punishment of breach. The FTC, too, has an explicit preference for settlement: it aims ‘to secure an effective order – by consent if feasible, or by litigation if necessary’.134 Consent decrees are also easier to enforce if there is reoccurrence of prohibited behaviour, as the government can simply initiate clarification or contempt proceedings in federal district court, rather than filing – and proving – a fresh complaint.135 A finding of contempt on this basis establishes only that the defendant breached the terms of the decree, however, saying nothing about the compatibility of its behaviour with substantive antitrust.136 ', 'For defendants, settlement provides a mechanism for managing risk. Settling an antitrust investigation avoids the risk of an adverse holding, while the defendant gains significant control over the remedies imposed. Crucially, the defendant also avoids collateral estoppel in follow-on actions for the same violation. Whereas a final antitrust judgment becomes prima facie evidence of guilt in subsequent private antitrust litigation, the antitrust rules expressly prohibit collateral estoppel for consent decrees,137 and most consent decrees state explicitly that settlement is not an admission of guilt.138 A defendant that chooses to pursue a public-enforcement action to trial thus does so in the knowledge that an adverse finding would facilitate follow-on actions by private plaintiffs. This, of course, makes settlement more attractive. A finding of breach by public enforcers in one jurisdiction may also encourage enforcement activity by authorities in other jurisdictions,139 which further increases the value of settlement for risk-averse firms.', 'Consent decrees are settlements, nonetheless, which mean com- promise.140 Although the bargain struck is unlikely to represent the best deal that either side could potentially have achieved had the case gone to a final determination on the merits, the language of compromise suggests that such concessions are mutually beneficial.141 The government agency furthers the public interest by restoring com- petition, while the firm avoids a unilateral finding of breach and the undesirable consequences that follow. A more critical approach would, however, portray compromise as a failure to protect rights: that is, the right of society to have antitrust violations punished, and the right of firms in compliance with antitrust to act independently. In this sense, settlement is ‘avoidance’ because ‘[t]o settle for something means to accept less than some ideal’ in terms of justice.142 The government might settle a case on excessively lenient terms because it is captured or coerced; or it may oppress a weaker defendant to extract disproportion- ate concessions or to resolve a dubious case.143 In the antitrust context, the settlement compromise may present an inefficient outcome, involv- ing either insufficient control of the victorious firm or unnecessary restraint of the losing one. Another pertinent criticism of settlement is that such arrangements do not produce concrete rules of law, but merely involve private bargains. Settlements therefore fail to develop the parameters of law or enrich its content. This problem may be particularly acute in the antitrust context, where prohibitions are broadly drawn, and where firms need a sufficiently clear prospective understanding of the law in order to avoid ex post prosecution. East- erbrook suggested that, where increased use of settlements leads to ‘too few precedents’, the resulting uncertainty encourages greater litigation, so that new precedents are created and settlement levels increase again.144 In the antitrust context, however, uncertainty might have the opposite effect. Antitrust rules are broadly drawn, standards of illegality have varied over time, and extra-legal policy considerations apply to a greater extent than in other legal areas. Uncertainty might therefore encourage defendants to settle, not because their conduct fits within recognised categories of wrongdoing, but because of a fear that existing legal standards are so malleable and indistinct as to allow ex post extension of those broad prohibitions to catch almost any conduct deemed undesirable by competition adjudicators. ', 'a. The nature of consent decrees: accommodating bargains, novelty and regulation ', 'Antitrust consent decrees have been divided, broadly, into three categories: decrees that apply established legal standards, decrees that develop more novel theories of antitrust harm, and decrees that predominantly regulate firm behaviour or the operation of markets.145 Taking these categories in turn, we consider the extent to which consent decrees might be conceived as a form of regulatory antitrust, and whether such a designation might be problematic.', 'Given that consent decrees contain no findings of liability and thus, formally, establish no rules of law, such decrees do not contain authoritative statements of antitrust in the same manner as litigated judgments.146 While a decree may say much about the permissible conduct of a particular market actor in the future, it establishes little about the parameters of antitrust more generally. Instead, consent decrees are, effectively, contractual bargains between enforcement agencies and defendants. It is generally accepted, nonetheless, that ‘[s]ettlements in the shadow of the law reflect the content of the law’.147 Accordingly, the Supreme Court has sought to develop an approach to consent decrees that encapsulates this duality: part contract, part judicial decree. The Court rejects the view that consent decrees are merely contracts, instead emphasising a continuing quasi-judicial function resulting from their inherently judicial nature.148 Yet, the origins of the decree in the contractual bargain between enforcement agency and firm must be acknowledged, alongside the importance of deferring to the substance of that bargain in exercising its judicial scrutiny role.149 While a consent decree is not wholly a private law instrument, in dealing with the substance of a decree courts are prepared to defer to the ‘private’ bargain embodied in its terms rather than to the substance of antitrust.150 Moreover, because the content of consent decrees is not determined by antitrust alone, such instruments can potentially be used to address anticompetitive behaviour falling outside the established categories of antitrust infringement. Insofar as consent decrees are private bargains, the principle of freedom of contract mandates that the parties should be free to structure these arrangements however each deems most advantageous, provided that there are no public-policy concerns against judicial acceptance of an ‘unconscionable’ bargain. As consent decrees are not formal antitrust rules, furthermore, any novel case theory that underpins a consent decree does not gain acceptance as an established antitrust rule simply by virtue of its oblique inclusion in the decree. Even if the novel theory of liability is problematic, it is confined to a particular bargain rather than having broader effects. On this view, novelty does not prevent parties from adopting individualised private solutions to market problems, which may include distinctly quasi-regulatory, as opposed to purely antitrust-oriented, arrangements.', 'Using antitrust consent decrees to address behaviour that is not clearly incompatible with competition law raises difficult questions. The hybrid nature of consent decrees – part contract, part judicial order – places the novel theory encapsulated in the decree in legal limbo. Although not established as a rule of law, its inclusion confers greater weight than a merely speculative argument advanced in private litigation. It represents the considered view of the enforcement agency that such conduct violates antitrust and merits enforcement action, and, although the underlying antitrust claim does not receive judicial endorsement, the decree provisions that incorporate the novel case theory require court approval. This ambiguity creates uncertainty, which means that prudent firms might be advised to respect the parameters established obliquely by the consent decree and not merely the limits of the recognised rules. Consequently, although the novel theory is not antitrust law as such, its inclusion within a consent decree may confer upon it the effect of restricting the commercial freedom of other firms, without any substantive legal basis for this result. A related criticism is that, where novel cases are resolved by consent decree, the underlying theory largely escapes judicial scrutiny and challenge. Absent robust review and critique, legally unsound or economically unreasonable theories might slip though the antitrust net, providing ostensibly valid grounds for future enforcement and gaining soft law status as established law. Without the check provided by a substantive adjudicative process, antitrust may develop in a manner inconsistent with sensible competition policy. The difficulty of creating effective and appropriate remedies for novel breaches is a connected problem.151 ', 'The issue of novelty within consent decrees thus remains controversial. A policy against settlement by decree, unless the alleged conduct would fairly certainly be illegal,152 arguably best protects the integrity of public enforcement and substantive antitrust law. The simplicity of this approach, however, belies the difficult choices that it requires. Given that consent decrees are the principal means of case disposition for non-criminal public enforcement, an antitrust agency that identifies anticompetitive behaviour just beyond the established parameters of antitrust would face a significant dilemma. Either the agency would have to commit, ex ante, to litigate the case to final judgment even if the defendant would settle on terms that remedy the competition problem, or it must abandon the investigation leaving the competition problems unresolved. This unyielding choice not only interferes with the enforcement agency’s discretion to determine the best use of its limited resources; the unavailability of the settlement procedure is moreover unfair to defendants prepared to settle, who are denied access to a settlement tool available where the infringement is more clear-cut. The wider social benefits of generating precedents to clarify the law would therefore come at the expense of parties that wish to minimise costs by settling, yet which are forced to litigate.153 ', 'What does this mean in terms of the use of consent decrees as a form of quasi-regulation? As discussed, consent decrees are considered to have a central role in the perceived movement from an historical law-based model to the current regulation-based model within US antitrust.154 Undoubtedly, the hybridised law-contract status of consent decrees, and the fact that decrees are largely disconnected from the constraints of conventional antitrust doctrine, contributes to a perception of antitrust settlements as a flexible tool for bureaucratic market governance, which is distinguishable from the legalistic model of antitrust enforcement. The content of consent decree remedies can differ markedly from typical litigated antitrust remedies, which tends to bring such instruments within the sphere of regulation. Remedies not infrequently go beyond the scope of what could be required under antitrust law: often the objective is not to address discrete instances of anticompetitive behaviour, but rather to improve the functioning of the market more generally. Decree provisions may place defendants under affirmative duties that require on-going monitoring to ensure compliance, and so many decrees also establish on-going judicial or governmental supervision mechanisms. The sometimes-static nature of settlement terms is another source of criticism. Although markets evolve constantly in dynamic waves of creative destruction, the decreed optimal behaviour of a firm as encapsu- lated in a consent decree with behavioural remedies is tied to particular market circumstances frozen at a particular point in time.155 Recognising this genuine problem, the DOJ, in particular, has sought to limit the temporal impact of consent decrees, by incorporating ‘sunset clauses’ into all decrees concluded after 1979,156 and to introduce a degree of flexibility, by progressively streamlining procedures for modification and termination of existing decrees.157 Additionally, the process by which decrees are agreed upon is primarily administrative rather than judicial or adversarial. While the argument is not (yet) that antitrust has become a purely regulatory exercise, current enforcement practice thus leans in this direction and away from a law enforcement model.158 Regulatory consent decrees are not pure regulation, as such – but nor are these instruments antitrust in the traditional black-letter sense, either.', 'The on-going use of consent decrees to supervise, closely, the activities of the two largest collecting societies in the USA – the American Society of Composers, Authors and Publishers (ASCAP) and Broadcast Music, Inc. (BMI) – illustrates the potential for such instruments to be applied in a decidedly quasi-regulatory fashion. Collecting societies administer the collection of licensing fees for public performances of copyrighted works on behalf of copyright owners. Although such agencies can minimise transaction costs for artists and those who use their work, their activities have nonetheless been subject to antitrust scrutiny in numerous jurisdic- tions on the basis that collecting societies facilitate collusion over price- setting by apparent competitors. In 1941, the DOJ entered into consent decrees with ASCAP159 and BMI,160 placing limitations on the licensing provisions that each could apply. Remarkably, although each decree has undergone significant court-approved modification in the intervening period, both remain in force as the primary means of regulating the activities of these organisations almost three-quarters of a century later. The decree provisions include, since 1950 for ASCAP161 and 1994 for BMI,162 the appointment of rate-setting courts to determine licence fees, which has often involved close and on-going judicial involvement in the process of setting fees.163 The complexity of the finely balanced competi- tion issues persuades even those more sceptical commentators that regulation of some sort is necessary to secure effective performance,164 and the enduring nature of the ASCAP and BMI decrees suggests that these instruments provide a workable, even if imperfect, solution. None- theless, as a mechanism of regulation, the decrees have faced criticisms. Given that each reflects, in essence, a private bargain, the weight of the regulatory burden imposed on each entity has not always been equal, a fact which, Epstein argued, directly benefitted the market performance of BMI, the less heavily regulated entity.165 The limitations of what can be achieved by consent decrees – for instance, bargaining between the DOJ and defendant firms cannot result in the creation of a new adminis- trative agency to oversee compliance – have also meant that adminis- tration of the decree provisions must occur through relatively inefficient judicial procedures.166 This has been a serious drawback, given that the collecting societies have tended to act like typical regulated entities and thus resist efficient innovation unless forced to do so through judicial amendment of the relevant decrees.167 ', 'Intriguingly, US courts have effectively accepted this quasi-regulatory role for consent decrees. In US v. BMI, for example, the Second Circuit Court of Appeals, adjudicating on a rate-setting dispute arising from the BMI decree, recognised that the organisation was ‘regulated by court- approved consent decrees’, because of ‘the inherently anticompetitive conditions under which [they] operate’.168 Moreover, to date, in exercis- ing the Tunney Act duty to review settlements in the public interest, no court has rejected a decree as being excessively regulatory in nature. The AT&T consent decree, considered in the preceding chapter, has been described as ‘the ultimate regulatory decree in modern times’,169 yet it was approved with only minor modification.170 The essentially regula- tory nature of the monitoring process under the AT&T decree involved a federal district court judge, the DOJ and the FCC in a complex supervis- ory procedure, which meant that initial judicial approval was ‘only the first chapter of a looming chain novel’171 of supervision that continued until the Telecommunications Act in 1996. Nonetheless, the complexity in practice of administering the AT&T decree did not dissuade public enforcers from embracing regulatory schemes within later consent decrees, or courts from approving such arrangements. For better or worse, consent decrees facilitate the application of antitrust in a strategic manner to pursue market objectives, and in particular to achieve market structures, that would appear to sit, more comfortably, within the regulatory paradigm.'] | [
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] | 1,420,099,200 | 47 |
d1dd59b9a5fbf86e09d0a0bf25bf9bdb8f341b6346506ebd5349e4d495038181 | 2) COURTS ARE WORSE---consent decrees solve | null | Spencer Weber Waller 98, Associate Dean for Academic Affairs and Professor, Brooklyn Law School, “Prosecution by Regulation: The Changing Nature of Antitrust Enforcement,” 77 Or. L. Rev. 1383, WestLaw | the Court failed to formulate rules coherent , forthright and capable of application by lower courts and private persons judges have little experience or interest cases are lengthy and burden small staff specialized agencies not only inevitable, but desirable since antitrust plays to weaknesses of court law Instead administrators bargain and reach mutually agreeable consent decrees | Legal process jurisprudence works to explain why the Court has failed to formulate appropriate rules and draft decisions based on reasoned elaboration to produce a body of law that is coherent , forthright in its goals , and capable of application by lower courts and private persons courts are ill-equipped to handle “polycentric” decision-making involving the balancing of multiple incommensurable values lit noted the migration of polycentric decisions away from the courts towards the use of negotiation , specialized decision-makers , managerial techniques, informal bureaucracies non-adjudicatory solutions courts are ill-equipped to handle antitrust disputes requiring industry reorganization or similar remedies while creating and enforcing the rules of the market were an appropriate subject for adjudication, determining the outcome of the market process was not Although highly influential in civil rights and other institutional reform the centrality of courts has not been directly pursued to any significant degree in antitrust For decades the courts struggled with reasoned elaboration when applied to diverse antitrust questions affecting competition , monopolization mergers , acquisitions , and joint ventures only per se prohibition can be deemed a true success from a process perspective The rest of antitrust is characterized by obfuscation, incoherence, or outright abandonment Federal judges have dislike antitrust cases the typical judge has little experience or interest in this area most civil, and some criminal, antitrust cases are lengthy with unending discovery , contentious lawyers , complicated facts , and dependent on sophisticated economic analysis This puts a substantial burden on district court judges who must cope with a very small staff that has an average caseload of several hundred cases , including criminal cases which by law are subject to the Speedy Trial Act push ing all civil cases to the end of the line . A massive time-consuming antitrust case further delays the ability of the court to dispose of pending and newly assigned matters and is rarely a satisfactory excuse to irate litigants or supervising judges when a judge falls behind. The judge must either effectively dedicate a law clerk full-time to the behemoth antitrust case which forces the remaining clerks and staff to handle the entire remainder of the docket , or draw on scarce resources The result is unlike other areas of complex litigation judges are eager to leave decisions to the expert bureaucrats the Supreme Court has proved incapable of solving the riddles of the meaning of the rule of reason virtually everything is relevant monopolization characterized by vague platitudes or merger s refusal to take any cases Each of these so-called rules is the embodiment of the polycentricity as the stuff of which courts must fail the rule of reason court consider the facts peculiar to the business to which the restraint is applied; its condition before and after the restraint was imposed; the nature of the restraint and its effect, actual or probable. The history of the restraint, the evil believed to exist, the reason for adopting the particular remedy, the purpose or end sought to be obtained, are all relevant facts . it doesn't get any more polycentric than this! in monopolization , the Court has struggled for decades to create tests to differentiate praiseworthy hard competition and unlawful exclusionary conduct the standards for determining the legality of mergers involve the balancing of so many incommensurables , that no rational court would want to be in this business specialized agencies arose to deal with the fact that somebody has to apply this body of law on a day-to-day basis. this migration away from courts was not only inevitable, but desirable since most antitrust enforcement inherently calls for a type of decision-making that plays to the weaknesses of a court -centered common law type approach . Instead of ineffective and uninterested courts , expert administrators can bargain with private counterparts and reach mutually agreeable solutions in the form of consent decrees this world is already here in the docket of the Supreme Court antitrust has virtually disappeared | Legal process jurisprudence Court failed appropriate rules reasoned elaboration coherent forthright goals capable of application lower courts private persons ill-equipped “polycentric” multiple incommensurable values lit migration away negotiation decision-makers managerial bureaucracies non-adjudicatory ill-equipped antitrust disputes industry reorganization similar remedies outcome of the market process not civil rights decades struggled reasoned elaboration diverse antitrust questions competition monopolization mergers acquisitions joint ventures per se prohibition true success rest obfuscation, incoherence, or outright abandonment dislike little experience interest lengthy unending discovery lawyers facts sophisticated economic analysis burden very small staff caseload several hundred cases criminal Speedy Trial Act push all civil end of the line massive time-consuming antitrust delays pending newly assigned matters rarely a satisfactory excuse to irate litigants supervising judges effectively dedicate a clerk full-time behemoth antitrust case forces remaining entire remainder of the docket scarce resources unlike other areas of complex litigation eager expert bureaucrats Supreme incapable riddles meaning of the rule of reason everything is relevant monopolization vague platitudes merger s take any cases polycentricity must fail rule of reason all relevant facts doesn't get any more polycentric than this! monopolization struggled decades differentiate hard competition unlawful exclusionary conduct mergers so many incommensurables no rational court would want to be in this business specialized agencies deal somebody not only inevitable, but desirable most antitrust enforcement inherently weaknesses court -centered common law type approach ineffective uninterested courts bargain with private counterparts mutually agreeable solutions consent decrees already here Supreme Court virtually disappeared | ['A. The Legal Process Story', 'Legal process jurisprudence depends first and foremost on a process of reasoned elaboration by courts.166 Legal process jurisprudence works very well to explain the past of antitrust, why the agencies have grabbed law-making power, and why the U.S. Supreme Court has failed to formulate appropriate rules and draft decisions based on reasoned elaboration to produce a body of law that is coherent, forthright in its policy goals, and capable of application by the lower courts and private persons in structuring their behavior in the real world.167', 'The story, however, cannot be found in the seminal legal process text itself. To the extent that Hart and Sacks considered the work of agencies in their book, The Legal Process,168 they sought to have agencies primarily behave like courts. For example, a substantial section of The Legal Process focuses on the work of the FTC.169 This section presents an actual FTC opinion, critiques it, and redrafts a model opinion that better incorporates legal process values until it resembles a common law judicial opinion.170', "Professor Lon Fuller's amplification of the legal process model better explains the withdrawal of the courts from law making in this area. In his classic article The Forms and Limits of Adjudication,171 Fuller discusses how the courts are ill-equipped to handle *1419 what he termed “polycentric” decision-making involving the balancing of multiple and incommensurable values. Professor Fuller and the substantial subsequent literature addressing his work have noted the migration of polycentric decisions away from the courts towards the use of negotiation, specialized decision-makers, managerial techniques, informal bureaucracies, and other non-adjudicatory solutions.172 As others have noted, the courts are ill-equipped to handle antitrust disputes requiring industry reorganization or similar remedies.173 Similarly, Fuller noted that while creating and enforcing the rules of the market were an appropriate subject for adjudication, determining the outcome of the market process was not.174", 'There is another strain of later legal process scholarship begun by Professor Abraham Chayes that sought to defend a role for court adjudication of complex public law problems through incorporation of managerial techniques, scientific experts, and special masters, to better grapple with polycentric decision-making that was institutionally ill-suited for traditional adjudication.175 Although highly influential in civil rights litigation and other institutional *1420 reform litigation, this alternative way to restore the centrality of courts has not been directly pursued to any significant degree in the antitrust field.176', "This toleration for the migration of law-making away from the courts is one of the most intriguing, but unexplored, aspects of the legal process movement. Even if Fuller and Chayes disagreed about the wisdom of courts taking on polycentric social questions, neither felt any need to address these questions in antitrust policy. For Fuller, any polycentric question was inappropriate for litigation. For Chayes, only polycentric public law issues deserved the attention of the federal courts. The pressing public law issues of the day were civil rights, school desegregation, and prison reform. While antitrust has characteristics of both public and private law, it is clear that these were not the pressing public law issues of the day. Finally, from Hart and Sacks' point of view, an administrative agency acting like a court, but with additional substantive expertise, could handle most antitrust questions just fine.", 'There was simply no strong legal process reason to care strongly or critically think about the evolution of antitrust in this era. A decent argument could be made that in the 1940s and 1950s the growth of per se rules meant that antitrust litigation was far less polycentric than at any time in its history. To the extent that polycentricity could not be avoided, no leading legal process figure had a strong interest to reform the litigation process to deal with these issues. Even if the courts were not competent in this area, most agreed on institutional competence grounds that these were matters best left to administrative, legislative, or market solutions.', 'The basic legal process story as modified by Fuller, Chayes, and others has great explanatory and predictive power when applied to antitrust law-making. For decades the courts struggled with the process of reasoned elaboration when applied to such diverse antitrust questions as the legality of all manner of agreements *1421 affecting competition, monopolization and attempted monopolization, mergers, acquisitions, and joint ventures. As Professor William Reynolds and I discussed in an earlier article, only the per se prohibition against price fixing among competitors can be deemed a true success from a legal process perspective.177 The rest of antitrust is characterized by obfuscation, incoherence, or outright abandonment of the field.178', 'It is striking how the courts have not merely tolerated, but actively encouraged, the migration of antitrust law-making to the agencies.179 Federal judges have several compelling reasons to dislike antitrust cases. First, the typical federal judge has very little experience or interest in this area of the law. The usual background for a federal judge is either government service as a criminal prosecutor or private practice with strong political ties to a senatorial or executive branch sponsor. An interest or specialty in antitrust is rarely compatible with either track. Second, most civil, and some criminal, antitrust cases are lengthy affairs with unending discovery, contentious lawyers, complicated facts, and dependent on sophisticated economic analysis for their resolution. This puts a substantial burden on district court judges who must cope with a very small staff that has an average caseload of several hundred cases, including criminal cases which by law are subject to the Speedy Trial Act,180 pushing all civil cases to the end of the line. A massive time-consuming antitrust case further delays the ability of the court to dispose of pending and newly assigned matters and is rarely a satisfactory excuse to irate litigants or supervising judges when a judge falls behind. The judge must either effectively dedicate a law clerk full-time to the behemoth antitrust case,181 which itself forces the remaining clerks and staff to handle the entire remainder of the docket, or draw on normally scarce resources to somehow obtain additional staff.182', '*1422 The result is unlike other areas of complex litigation such as mass torts or civil rights cases. The judges are not inclined to grasp the public policy spotlight, and normally are eager to leave the hard decisions to the expert bureaucrats.', 'It is hardly surprising that the U.S. Supreme Court has proved incapable of solving the riddles of such areas of the law as the meaning of the rule of reason (virtually everything about competitive purpose and effect is relevant), monopolization (characterized by vague platitudes), or merger and acquisitions (refusal to take any cases). Each of these so-called rules is the embodiment of the type of polycentricity discussed by Fuller as the stuff of which courts must fail.', 'Consider first the rule of reason, the bedrock of modern antitrust. First adopted in the 1911 Standard Oil Co. v. United States decision,183 it was explained most fully by Justice Brandeis in the 1918 case, Board of Trade v. United States.184 Justice Brandeis stated:', 'The true test of legality is whether the restraint imposed is such as merely regulates and perhaps thereby promotes competition or whether it is such as may suppress or even destroy competition. To determine that question the court must ordinarily consider the facts peculiar to the business to which the restraint is applied; its condition before and after the restraint was imposed; the nature of the restraint and its effect, actual or probable. The history of the restraint, the evil believed to exist, the reason for adopting the particular remedy, the purpose or end sought to be obtained, are all relevant facts.185', "In short, it doesn't get any more polycentric than this!", "Similarly, in the area of monopolization, the U.S. Supreme Court has struggled for decades to create tests to differentiate between praiseworthy hard competition and unlawful exclusionary conduct. In 1986, Justice Stevens sought to unify and modernize the doctrine in this area and instructed courts and juries to decide these issues by judging whether a valid business justification *1423 existed for the defendant's conduct.186 This test has proved to be no more workable than its predecessors. While society continues to struggle in differentiating between enlightened technological visionaries and evil rapacious monopolists, it is quite significant that while once it was the courts which decided this question for John D. Rockefeller and other barons of his day, today the fate of Bill Gates so far has been determined through complex negotiation with the Justice Department, with both sides invoking the court to protect their deal from outside interference.", "Finally, the standards for determining the legality of mergers involve the balancing of so many incommensurables, that no rational court would want to be in this business. The U.S. Supreme Court's attempt at guidance came in the Brown Shoe Co. v. United States187 decision where it described the legislative history of this provision as having no specific tests or definitions in mind for the legality of mergers. Congress nonetheless wanted courts to: (1) consider the rising tide of economic concentration in the country; (2) not be limited by the prior case law under the Sherman Act or the technical deficiencies of prior versions of the Clayton Act; (3) to create an effective tool for preventing all mergers having demonstrable anticompetitive effects; (4) not prohibit the stimulation to competition that might flow from particular mergers; (5) view mergers functionally in the context of its particular industry; (6) consider probabilities, not certainties; and (7) consider the effect of the loss of local control over business activity.188", 'If these types of polycentric decisions calling for consideration of a wide variety of economic and societal interests are beyond the grasp of courts, then perhaps it was inevitable that specialized agencies and informal bureaucracies arose to deal with the fact that somebody has to apply this body of law on a day-to-day basis. The legal process lens suggests that this migration away from the courts was not only inevitable, but desirable as well, since most antitrust enforcement inherently calls for a type of decision-making that plays to the weaknesses of a court-centered common law type approach. Instead of ineffective and uninterested courts, expert administrators can bargain with their private *1424 sector counterparts and reach mutually agreeable solutions in the form of business review letters, advisory opinions, consent decrees, and more informal sources of clearance.189 Whether or not this is desirable, this world is already here except for the shrinking set of per se offenses and the most blatantly anticompetitive mergers where the parties shun the opportunity to work things out with the antitrust regulators.190', 'Nowhere is this shift more visible than in the docket of the U.S. Supreme Court where antitrust has virtually disappeared in recent years. In 1994 and 1995, the Court heard no antitrust cases at all. In 1996, the Court heard one case which dealt with an obscure aspect of the relationship between antitrust and labor law.191 Between 1990 and 1995, there were only seven dissents from the denial of certiorari in antitrust cases, all by Justice White, joined by one other Justice in one case, and none since 1992.192'] | [
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8d309e74fe0193d31c761c1b886a714ee2c7f66a962a002bbd8f481cc5276dd8 | 1) SIGNAL---it’s treated as binding and precedential, even though it’s not---particularly for the FTC | null | Tracy Hester 20, Associate Instructional Professor, University of Houston Law Center; Co-Director of the Center for Carbon Management in Energy at the University of Houston; chair-elect of the American Association of Law School's Environmental Law Section; Regent, American College of Environmental Law; chair, Climate Change, Sustainable Development, & Ecosystems Committee of the American Bar Association's Section on Environment, Energy & Resources, “Consent Decrees as Emergent Environmental Law,” 85 Mo. L. Rev. 687, WestLaw | consent decrees generate legal rules and precedents For parties who enter judgments function as binding the same effects of any other judgment also persuasive to future judges impact can be sweeping . While not binding can guide courts parties also rely on prior decrees during negotiation FTC decrees Companies rely on to guide their policies functionally equivalent to a body of common law ” regulating more than statute or tort influence successive decrees that target a single sector or practice | consent decrees generate legal ly relevant rules , principles , and precedents judgments do not impose a uniform ly constraining effect on future opinions in a rigid and predetermined way . Like the common law process itself , consent judgments can affect or bind future judgments along a spectrum of persuasion and force that turns on the individual circumstances and history of each case . In this regard, consent decrees have degrees of impact that vary from persuasive effect, through the statement of useful principles , to encapsulations of a legal rule , to binding effects of precedent applied through stare decisis , to direct compulsory effects to the original decree through the law of the case doctrine or judicial estoppel a judgment may have persuasive value if it offers insights and relevant rules for a decision a future court finds wise or helpful For the parties who directly enter them and lodge them with the court , consent decree judgments function as wholly binding judicial decrees . In this context, the lodging parties face the same preclusive and binding effects of any other judgment issued by the court in their case. The entry of a consent decree judgment would impose issue preclusion , res judicata , and the law of the case consequences if they wished to relitigate their concerns Beyond the simple preclusive effects of judgment on the parties in the current dispute , consent decrees may also serve to establish binding rulings on parties on factual matters outside the four corners of the decree . For example, the entry of a consent decree may be admissible for proving facts related to its entry Beyond their direct binding effect consent decrees also have persuasive value as interpretations of law when a federal court conducts a hearing to determine the decree's legality While that determination might not directly bind future third- party litigants, the court's rationale and conclusion to approve the decree would be available to provide helpful or persuasive guidance to future judges wrestling with a legal issue or considering the entry of a similar decree The impact of a non-binding decision on subsequent rulings can be sweeping . While a prior decision may not pose binding precedent that another court would need to distinguish or accept , it may still present a clear formulation of a new legal rule or principle that can guide the considerations of sister courts outside the initial ambit parties to a consent decree may also rely on prior decrees for their persuasive value during the negotiation process by pointing to prior decrees as a baseline for terms other stakeholders can highlight prior consent decrees in their comments or objections to a proposed decree during the public comment process or a fairness hearing this tactic has already surfaced on environmental consent decrees looking to prior consent decrees that resolved similar disputes to guide subsequent decisions could promote efficiency , equal treatment , and predictability when a governmental body is one of the settling parties and is adopting a consistent rationale for reaching similar consent agreements in future disputes The FTC has entered numerous consent decrees and settlements to enforce the F T C A the enforcement actions have generated virtually no judicial decisions because the agency has chosen to settle almost all of its actions through consent agreements Companies rely on the body of consent decrees to guide the formation of their policies , and at least one commissioner has labeled this body of consent agreements as “a common law the FTC's body of consent agreements “is functionally equivalent to a body of common law ” and is the “ most influential regulating force in the U S more than any statute or common law tort At least one judicial opinion has taken a similar position and relied on FTC consent agreement provisions to interpret the FTCA The precedential power of prior consent decrees can influence the negotiation and review of successive consent decrees that target a single industrial sector or focus on a particular practice | generate legal rules principles precedents uniform ly constraining rigid and predetermined way common law process itself affect bind future judgments spectrum of persuasion and force individual circumstances history of each case degrees persuasive useful principles encapsulations of a legal rule binding stare decisis direct compulsory effects original decree relevant rules wise helpful directly enter lodge them with the court wholly binding judicial decrees same preclusive and binding effects any other judgment court issue preclusion res judicata law of the case consequences parties in the current dispute binding rulings factual matters outside decree proving facts related direct persuasive interpretations of law directly bind rationale conclusion available helpful or persuasive guidance to future judges similar decree non-binding decision sweeping binding need distinguish or accept clear formulation of a new legal rule or principle guide courts outside the initial ambit parties also negotiation process baseline terms already surfaced environmental prior consent decrees subsequent decisions efficiency equal treatment predictability governmental body consistent rationale similar consent agreements future disputes FTC numerous consent decrees settlements F T C A no judicial decisions rely on the body of consent decrees to guide the formation of their policies commissioner common law FTC's functionally equivalent to a body of common law most influential regulating force in the U S more any statute common law tort judicial opinion similar position FTC consent agreement interpret FTCA precedential power of prior consent decrees negotiation and review successive consent decrees single industrial sector particular practice | ['C. Creation Through Persuasion and Precedent', 'While consent decrees may develop law through their recurring content or their entry as judgments, the idea that they may directly bind or affect future court decisions is much more controversial. In part, this reaction reflects a fundamental inconsistency between the norms involved: the power of an earlier judicial opinion to persuade or bind a future decision rests in part on *720 its reasoning and rationale, while a consent decree reflects the intent of the settling parties without necessarily offering an explicit ratio in the naked text of the decree. In a way, honoring a prior consent decree judgment as persuasive or binding is like reading a contract to find a narrative explanation. The two types of documents serve fundamentally different purposes. To allow settling parties to consensually create judgments that affect judicial consideration of future disputes also raises the specters of collusion, manipulation, and loss of judicial control over the adjudicative function.', 'Despite these concerns, consent decrees may nonetheless generate legally relevant rules, principles, and precedents in constrained and varying ways. Consent judgments do not impose a uniform legally constraining effect on future opinions in a rigid and predetermined way. Like the common law process itself, consent judgments can affect or bind future judgments along a spectrum of persuasion and force that turns on the individual circumstances and history of each case. In this regard, consent decrees can have degrees of impact that vary from persuasive effect, through the statement of useful principles, to encapsulations of a legal rule, to binding effects of precedent applied through stare decisis, to direct compulsory effects on parties, to the original decree through the law of the case doctrine or judicial estoppel. In a sense, the power of the consent judgment escalates gradually from broad yet diffuse effect (persuasion) to tight and compulsory (preclusion, judicial estoppel, and law of the case).', "To draw useful distinctions between the varying effects of consent decrees on subsequent judicial considerations, precision in vocabulary helps to avoid conflation and confusion. At the lowest level, a judgment may have persuasive value if it offers insights and relevant rules for a decision that a future court finds wise or helpful. Persuasive prior decisions, however, obviously have no binding effect and cannot compel deference from future decision-makers. By contrast, a precedential opinion can require a court to apply its holding to future litigants through the operation of stare decisis. The force of this compulsion operates in both horizontal and vertical fashion: a lower court must follow the relevant precedential holdings of a superior court (vertical), while a court may constrain its decision in a current case by looking to its prior rulings to assure consistency and fairness in reaching a similar result for similarly positioned cases (horizontal).125 Notably, this distinction *721 neither exerts precedential effects on sister courts at an equivalent level, nor grants precedential power to federal district court decisions other than horizontal deference to that court's own prior decisions. The operation of precedent and stare decisis has become regularized to an extent at the appellate level in the federal judiciary through the promulgation of formal rules by the appellant courts.126 Some federal appellate courts use these rules to guide their discretion in choosing whether their opinions will formally have precedential or stare decisis effect.127", '1. Preclusion', 'For the parties who directly enter into them and lodge them with the court, consent decree judgments function as wholly binding judicial decrees. In this untroubling context, the lodging parties face the same preclusive and binding effects of any other judgment issued by the court in their case. The entry of a consent decree judgment would impose issue preclusion, res judicata, and the law of the case consequences if they wished to relitigate their concerns in the future.128', "This sweeping statement bears some important modulations. As noted earlier, the scope and preclusive effect of a consent judgment turns to an *722 important degree on the intent of the parties.129 As a result, a consent decree may expressly stipulate that the parties do not intend to resolve or incur preclusive effects on identified legal or factual issues. By agreeing to enter the judgment, the lodging court presumably approves the consensual exclusion of these issues from the scope of the judgment's binding effect. In addition, the parties cannot subsequently modify a consent judgment simply by mutual agreement.130 They instead need to gain the court's permission to modify the judgment and must meet the federal standards for modifications of judgments as specified in the Federal Rules of Civil Procedure and additional guidance from the U.S. Supreme Court for certain public consent decrees.131 Last, if the parties make affirmative representations to the court on germane legal conclusions or factual statements, or if they actively litigate disputed points on which the court issues an interim judgment to resolve,132 they may face separate legal constraints arising from the law of the case doctrine or judicial estoppel.133", "Beyond the simple preclusive effects of judgment on the parties in the current dispute, consent decrees may also serve to establish binding rulings on parties on factual matters outside the four corners of the decree. For example, the entry of a consent decree may be admissible for proving facts, such as knowledge of underlying conditions or existence of a dispute, related to its entry. This narrow form of preclusive effect does not extend, however, *723 to the judicial endorsement of alleged facts to which the parties expressly did not concur in the consent decree's terms.134", '2. Persuasion', "Beyond their direct binding effect on the relatively small universe of parties who personally enter into them, consent decrees also can have persuasive value as interpretations of law when a federal court conducts a hearing to determine the decree's fairness and legality. For example, a federal court might address the legality of a proffered decree at a fairness hearing or expressly require the parties to resolve a substantive legal issue underlying the settlement as a predicate for entry of the decree.135 While that determination might not directly bind future third-party litigants, the court's rationale and conclusion to approve the decree would be available to provide helpful or persuasive guidance to future judges wrestling with a legal issue or considering the entry of a similar consent decree.136", "The powers of persuasion usually receive far less attention in scholarly analysis than the mechanics of precedence and stare decisis. The impact of a non-binding decision on subsequent rulings, however, can be sweeping. While a prior decision may not pose a binding precedent that another court would need to distinguish or accept, it may still present a clear formulation of *724 a new legal rule or principle that can guide the considerations of sister courts outside the initial court's ambit or scope of appellate jurisdiction. For example, a federal district court opinion approving the entry of a CERCLA consent decree specifying a particular technical remedy and oversight mechanism may not bind a future review of a similar CERCLA consent decree by another district court (or even that same district court). It would nonetheless provide relevant context for assessing the fairness and consistency of a proffered new decree that sets out similar terms and remedial selections.", 'The parties to a consent decree may also rely on prior decrees for their persuasive value during the negotiation process by pointing to prior decrees as a baseline for terms in the proposed decree. In addition, other stakeholders can highlight prior consent decrees in their comments or objections to a proposed decree during the public comment process or a fairness hearing. To some extent, this tactic has already surfaced in comments submitted on large environmental consent decrees with governmental entities.137 The recent use of confidentiality constraints during consent decree negotiations, however, may constrain the ability of non-party stakeholders to emphasize persuasive earlier consent decrees or decisions prior to a fairness hearing or lodging of the decree.138', '3. Precedent', 'Beyond the relatively clear case for coercively binding the parties of consent judgments to their decrees and for giving gentler non-binding persuasive power to consent rulings on future litigants, the prospect of consent decrees with precedential effects on third-party litigants provokes much sharper objections. To some extent, the pushback reflects the intense ongoing debate about the proper role in constitutional litigation of precedence itself, and how courts should apply the mechanics of stare decisis.139 Most of this *725 debate, however, has comparatively little relevance for typical environmental consent decrees.140', 'Despite fights over the outer boundaries of precedence, its core features have remained relatively stable in common law systems for centuries.141 At its most basic level, stare decisis refers to the obligation of a court to obey either its prior case law (“horizontal precedence”) or the holdings of a superior court (“vertical precedence”).142 A precedent, in turn, refers to a decision or action in a prior case that establishes a new principle or rule which can apply to similarly situated cases in the future.143 Stare decisis does not predetermine the outcome of successor cases, and a court has the power either to distinguish prior precedents in ways that limit its future power or to simply overrule its horizontal precedents when it prove pernicious or incorrect.144', '*726 The longevity and durability of precedent and stare decisis reflect the commonsense purposes that the doctrines promote. Some of these benefits apply to any decision-maker, such as the efficiency gained by not revisiting basic questions that have already been decided in every new dispute,145 as well as ensuring the humility of later decision-makers who accord respect and due consideration to the rationales offered by earlier decision-makers.146 Other benefits are more uniquely suited to judges and courts, such as the need to provide equal treatment to similarly positioned claimants, predictability in the application of laws and rules, and the discipline of providing a persuasive rationale for a decision that can serve future jurists.147 All of these values help promote coherence and relevance in the body of decisions that make precedent overall a more useful and powerful tool for future litigants.', "Giving prospective precedential effect to consent decrees in certain instances might serve similar goals. For example, looking to prior consent decrees that resolved similar disputes to guide subsequent decisions could promote efficiency, equal treatment, and predictability in recurring litigation. But the match is not entirely clean. The concept of humility--that current decision-makers should respect and, when warranted, defer to prior decisionmakers as an acknowledgment of their insight and skill-- may not make sense if the prior consent decree arises mostly from the contractual resolution of a dispute by private litigants.148 Similarly, the virtue of discipline, which arises from a judge's desire to craft an opinion that can guide future decisionmakers, may not play any role between purely private litigants who have no interest in future or current disputes by other parties.", "The most telling objection to granting precedential effect to consent judgments, however, is that they typically lack a stated ratio decidendi.149 At its most fundamental level, the exercise of judicial power through the rendering of a written opinion serves the express function of providing a rationale to justify the particular resolution reached by the court. This ratio, *727 then, lies at the heart of the function of precedent and stare decisis. By providing a reasoned explanation of the judgment reached in a specific case, a judge offers a rationale for why that judgment is fair and worthy of respect and deference from both the public at large and future decision-makers. The judge's rationale, of course, also serves as the basis for any appellate review of the court's decision.", 'Consent decrees, by definition, need not offer any ratio beyond the simple agreement of the parties to resolve their dispute in a fashion that meets the minimal requirements for entry of a consent decree by the court. While the parties can offer their own legal conclusions in their agreement (or expressly disclaim the application of other legal doctrines or admissions of liability), their proffered rationale may not merit the same degree of respect, deference, or reliance as a ratio provided by a judicial officer vested with the power to authoritatively resolve disputes before a court. In a lengthy and complex consent decree, the parties may reach agreement through negotiated exchanges or “swaps” among provisions that would muddle a coherent or consistent narrative explanation. As a result, while a future court may find a rationale offered in a consent decree illuminating or even persuasive, the judge arguably need not necessarily extend the same degree of deference or concern for reliance interests that would accompany the application of stare decisis.150', "The limited extension of precedential effect to consent decrees, however, may still make sense in certain circumstances, particularly when a governmental body is one of the settling parties and is adopting a consistent rationale for reaching similar consent agreements in future disputes. For example, at least one federal agency has arguably built its body of consent orders into a source of functional common law precedent for subsequent legal determinations.151 The Federal Trade Commission (“FTC”) has entered into numerous consent decrees and settlements to enforce Section 5 of the Federal Trade Commission Act (“FTCA”), which protects consumer privacy in transactions.152 As a result, the FTC's enforcement actions have generated virtually no judicial decisions because the agency has chosen to settle almost all of its actions through consent agreements.153 Companies now rely on the body of consent decrees to guide the formation of their privacy policies, and *728 at least one commissioner has labeled this body of consent agreements as “a common law of privacy in this country.”154", "Some scholastic commenters have agreed and argue that the FTC's body of consent agreements “is functionally equivalent to a body of common law” and is the “most influential regulating force on information privacy in the United States--more so than nearly any privacy statute or any common law tort.”155 At least one judicial opinion has taken a similar position and relied on FTC consent agreement provisions to interpret a state consumer protection statute modeled on Section 5 of the FTCA.156 The classification of FTC consent decrees as precedential statements of law, however, has drawn strong objections from other legal commentators who emphasize the substantive differences in the common law adjudication process. These objectors also raise fundamental constitutional concerns.157 Notably, the number of privacy law settlements by the FTC is much smaller and focused on a discrete number of coherent legal issues than the expansive body of environmental consent decrees, which cut across a broad array of statutes and environmental media.158", 'The precedential power of prior consent decrees can especially influence the negotiation and review of successive consent decrees that target a single industrial sector or focus on a particular environmental practice. For example, the United States has initiated a series of enforcement actions against *729 automobile manufacturers that installed “defeat devices” in their vehicles.159 These devices manipulated the emissions of vehicles to produce misleadingly low levels of pollutants during federally mandated emissions testing procedures.160 The enforcement initiative yielded a series of consent decrees against a string of automobile manufacturers, including Volkswagen,161 Fiat Chrysler Automobiles,162 Derive Systems, Inc.,163 and Harley Davidson.164 The first of these decrees to be lodged, entered into with Volkswagen, effectively influenced the terms for subsequent settlements and served as a partial template for future settlements with the other manufacturers.165 By providing a convincing basis for future negotiations, the Volkswagen decree effectively led the parties and successive courts to treat it as if it had precedential (or, at least, strongly persuasive) value.166'] | [
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78ceb2d0f0bd6187867fafcd80e834b4edd96337463de01b5254366e0af1ffa2 | 2) TAILORING---the worst abuses will be individually remedied through personalized decrees---that guidance is the best possible for the individual case | null | Richard M. Steuer 95, Member of the New York Bar, “Counseling Without Case Law,” 63 Antitrust L.J. 823, WestLaw | decisions provide immediate parties prompt resolution litigants are not interested in precedent ; they want to close their merger consent agreements permit this kind without waiting in court | This case law never has been a perfect instrument for furnishing guidance to the foot soldiers of antitrust Administrative guidance likewise provide direction to practitioners administrative decisions provide the immediate parties with prompt resolution of issues and efficient disposition of disputes . Potential litigants are not interested in establishing precedent ; they want to close their merger , license their tech or exchange info with their competitor consent agreements permit parties to engage in scores of activities of this kind without a waiting protracted resolution in court | never perfect instrument foot soldiers of antitrust Administrative likewise immediate parties prompt resolution of issues efficient disposition of disputes litigants are not interested in establishing precedent their merger their tech info their consent agreements scores of activities of this kind without waiting in court | ['COUNSELING WITHOUT CASE LAW', 'For as long as anyone can remember, judicial decisions have been the principal source of the “law” for those who strive to provide antitrust advice in the United States. This case law never has been a perfect instrument for furnishing guidance to the foot soldiers of antitrust, but at least it enjoys the benefit of stare decisis.', 'Administrative guidance likewise serves to provide direction to practitioners, but it can be subject to abrupt change depending on which way the political winds blow. To compound the problem, the reasoning behind such guidance is not always articulated, nor is it passed through the filter of successive levels of appeal. There are no dissenting opinions to spawn opposing schools of thought in most instances. There are no case notes in law reviews to suggest criticisms and alternative approaches. There are no headnotes, no key numbers, and no Shepards. Instead of judicial opinions there are advisory opinions and guidelines. Instead of appeals there are speeches. Instead of thirteen circuits funneling into one Supreme Court there are two federal agencies and fifty state attorneys general funneling through the court of public opinion.', 'Of course, on the positive side, administrative decisions can provide the immediate parties with prompt resolution of issues and efficient disposition of disputes. Potential litigants often are not interested in establishing precedent; they want to close their merger, license their technology, or exchange information with their competitor. Business review letters, consent agreements, guidelines, and other forms of administrative guidance permit parties to engage in scores of activities of this kind every year without awaiting a protracted resolution in court.'] | [
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e23ade6da1beab150d19bd834a4261f6ea429a86925df71cc2e8c11c1c1e7bd6 | More evidence---the CP’s faster | null | Giovanna Massarotto 15, Teaching Fellow of Competition Law at Bocconi University, Milan; Ph.D. at Bocconi University, Milan, “Antitrust Agencies: Watchdogs or Regulators?,” 7 Geo. Mason J. Int'l Com. L. 39, WestLaw | Through consent decrees antitrust agencies settle cases these have become critical regulate business conduct not only interpret or apply law also provide rules and standards Similar to a doctor in an emergency antitrust needs to rapidly intervene where time is crucial The consent decree represents a flexible tool to quickly repair market failure enforcing through consent decrees may be the correct course this flexible tool appears appropriate and consistent with efficiency , and welfare | Through consent decrees antitrust agencies settle significant antitrust cases , and as a result, these methods have become critical for enforcing antitrust law consent decrees enable agencies to regulate day-to- day business conduct , creating rules to affected markets agencies do not only interpret or simply apply law ; they also provide the rules and standards that govern behavior antitrust agencies collaborate with the regulator to impose rules on markets Consent decrees are important antitrust devices that compete with prohibition decisions in drawing antitrust policy and in defining antitrust agency roles Similar to a doctor in an emergency room , antitrust enforcement needs a tool to rapidly intervene to correct market failures , especially in dynamic markets where time is crucial . As with individuals suffering a health crisis, quick care is needed, and waiting is not opportune decisions represent a painkiller The consent decree represents a flexible regulatory tool to quickly repair a market failure enforcing antitrust law through consent decrees may be the correct course of action . Endowing antitrust agencies with this flexible antitrust tool appears appropriate and consistent with antitrust purposes and the markets' needs : increased flexibility , efficiency , and welfare . Flexibility is key in competitive markets | consent decrees settle significant antitrust cases critical enforcing antitrust law enable regulate day-to- day business conduct rules interpret apply rules standards collaborate regulator rules important antitrust devices compete with prohibition decisions doctor emergency room tool rapidly intervene to correct market failures dynamic markets where time is crucial waiting is not opportune decisions painkiller consent decree flexible regulatory tool quickly repair a market failure consent decrees correct course of action flexible antitrust tool appropriate consistent with antitrust purposes and the markets' needs flexibility efficiency welfare key | ['III. THE REGULATION EFFECTS OF CONSENT DECREES AND COMMITMENT DECISIONS--THE CHANGED ROLE OF ANTITRUST AGENCIES', "Through consent decrees or commitment decisions, the U.S. and European antitrust agencies may settle significant antitrust cases, and as a result, these methods have become critical tools for enforcing antitrust law. Consequently, the role of antitrust agencies has become less clear. The widespread use of consent decrees or commitment decisions enables antitrust agencies to regulate the parties' day-to-day business conduct, creating a set of rules to affected markets. Antitrust agencies do not only interpret or simply apply the law; they also provide the rules and standards that govern behavior.", 'Justice Breyer explained that regulation and antitrust strive for similar goals: low and economically efficient prices, innovation, and efficient production methods.29 Historically, regulation seeks to achieve these goals *46 directly, while antitrust law seeks to achieve them indirectly. By settling antitrust cases through consent decrees, antitrust agencies assume the typical regulator role for imposing behavioral or structural remedies. Antitrust law appears as an alternative to regulation. In sum, antitrust agencies, through consent decrees, can achieve, both directly and indirectly, the above-mentioned goals.', 'Professor Harry First recognized that, due to the increasing use of consent decrees, “[a]ntitrust has come to be seen more as policy and less as law.”30 “Here the Legislature, “invades the territory of another”31-- the Judiciary.”', 'Having recognized the regulatory effects of consent decrees and commitment decisions, the following questions should be addressed: Are antitrust agencies legitimately regulating markets through consent decrees or commitment decisions? If they are, are such indirect regulatory powers appropriate? By analyzing the well-known AT&T case, I reflect on the regulatory role assumed by the DOJ and Judge Greene, weighing its positive and negative effects on markets.', 'A. The AT&T Case', 'The AT&T case involves three different agreements enshrined in judgments over the past hundred years.32 The most important one was the 1982 consent decree.33 The antitrust lawsuit began in 1974 and was settled by the consent decree, which was the first of two major regulatory interventions in the U.S. telecommunications industry.34 By analyzing the *47 AT&T consent decree of 1982, I show both the regulatory and efficiency effects from using this antitrust tool. I assess whether the social costs of this regulation decision (designed in 1982 by Judge Greene, the DOJ, and AT&T) exceed its benefits and whether the terms of that decree maximized economic welfare. Through this analysis, I evaluate whether or not regulatory powers of antitrust agencies are appropriate and whether they should be promoted or restricted.', '1. AT&T - The Facts', "In February 1885, the American Telephone and Telegraph Company was established for providing electric telegraph lines connecting “each and every city, town, or place in said state, and each and every other of the United States, and in Canada and Mexico.”35 The American Bell Telephone Company's subsidiary, AT&T, provided long-distance telephone lines to interconnect local exchange areas of the Bell companies. Three submarkets: long distance, local distance, and telecommunications equipment composed the U.S. telecommunications industry.36 Historically, AT&T operated in all three markets. Until 1984, AT&T's Bell System included: AT&T Long Lines; local subsidiaries (22 Bell System Operating Companies); and Western Electric, Bell Laboratories, and American Bell, who provided *48 telecommunications equipment for AT&T's local and long-distance companies.37", 'The well-known antitrust case--U.S. v. AT&T (1982)--was based on the assumption that the local loop (the telephone local access line) constituted a bottleneck facility. According to the complaint, the defendants: “[were] violating the antitrust laws by various monopolistic practices ... [and] as a consequence of these practices (1) defendants have achieved and ... maintain [ed] a monopoly of telecommunications service and equipment; (2) competition in these areas ha[d] been restrained; and (3) purchasers of telecommunications service and equipment ha[d] been denied the benefits of a free and competitive market.”38', 'On January 1, 1984, the Bell System died. A new AT&T and seven regional Bell operating companies (collectively, the “RBOCs”) replaced the Bell System.39 The decree, known as the Modification of Final Judgment (“MFJ”), ordered AT&T to divest its local entities.40 Specifically, AT&T divested itself of the wholly owned Bell operating companies (“BOCs”), which were regrouped within seven new regional companies, each with its own geographic base.41 The MFJ precluded the new RBOCs from providing long-distance service. By doing so, AT&T continued to be active in the long-distance and manufacturing units from its remaining BOCs.', '2. Effects of the MFJ on the Telecommunications Industry', "The AT&T case divided scholars over the procompetitive effects of the antitrust and regulatory intervention of the MFJ. For example, according to Robert W. Crandall, AT&T's divestiture was not necessary, and it created “a vertically fragmented industry structure that is not sustainable *49 today.”42 Therefore, the mandate of sharing the local telephone network required by the MFJ would not promote competition in telecommunication services. Similarly, Gregory J. Sidak observed that in the telecommunications industry, technologies change continuously and rapidly, and structure relief would not only be unnecessary, but also unworkable.43 Richard A. Epstein considered the AT&T case “the most vivid illustration of a consent decree gone wrong.”44 However, it is undisputed that the AT&T antitrust consent decree changed the entire telecommunications industry, imposing competition in a previously monopolistic market.", "In my opinion, despite several critics, some positive effects of the MFJ on the telecommunications industry are evident. The MFJ gave a strong stimulus to the telecommunications market.45 The breakup of AT&T marked the end of the regulated de facto monopoly era in the telecommunications industry,46 and AT&T's market share significantly decreased. The DOJ antitrust intervention, formalized by Judge Greene's decree, is analogous to a surgery that takes place in an emergency room. Although it may not be the best solution, it is time-sensitive and perhaps the only way to break up the AT&T monopoly that had previously prevailed at least fifty years. The Federal Communications Commission (“FCC”) recognized that in a dynamic industry like the telecommunications industry, competition is more suitable than a natural monopoly. Competition increases both the size of telecommunications markets and consumer welfare, encouraging firms to develop better quality products at lower prices.", 'Therefore, the primary role of regulators, like the FCC in the telecommunications industry, is to promote and increase the competition of markets. This regulatory role appears similar to the role of antitrust agencies. Therefore, an overlap of authority between the regulator and antitrust agencies is undisputed. The direct effect of the AT&T divestiture was increased competition in the long distance and information services *50 markets.47 The prices of long distance calls decreased significantly.48 The FCC observed that the cost of a long distance call from 1984 to 2006 “dropped from 32 cents per minute to 7 cents per minute,” meaning that between 1984 and 2006, their prices declined more than 85 percent.49 Furthermore, in 1984, AT&T held a market share of approximately 90 percent,50 which fell to 47.9 percent51 by 1996 and to 24 percent by 2011. In 2011, Verizon held a market share of approximately 12.1 percent.52', "Although AT&T's market share decreased, FCC's 1995 studies recognized that AT&T's “output has increased by two-thirds over 1984 levels.”53 Thus, since AT&T's divestiture, industry output, measured by the number of calling minutes, has nearly tripled. Further, Roger G. Noll and Susan R. Smart analyzed the annual rate of Change for Various Price (“CPI”) for telephone services.54 Noll and Smart observed that “[t]he primary effect of divestiture and federal deregulation was reduced prices for customer equipment and for services that were becoming competitive.”55", "In short, the most important indicators of degree of competition, e.g. price and market share, show that the antitrust intervention increased competition in the long distance market.56 Conversely, AT&T's local telephone companies provided about three-quarters of the nation's local *51 telephone service and almost all-interstate long distance service. However, the transition of the local market towards effective competition will not be as easy or as quick as in the long distance market, due to the nature of the product and the associated economics. Herbert Hovenkamp recognized that there was “still a great deal of regulation of local service.”57 In 1984, the AT&T breakup opened competition in the long distance market but maintained a regulated monopoly in the local telephone market. Here, the Telecommunications Act of 1996 was enacted to promote competition in local exchange markets.", "That Telecommunications Act was the United States' reaction to ongoing rapid technology changes. It completely deregulated the telecommunications industry by envisioning one competitive open market for local and long distance, wireless, and cable services. In sum, the telecommunications industry is a representative industry to analyze the complementary role of antitrust agencies in regulated markets.", 'B. Antitrust Agencies, Regulatory Agencies or Both?', 'Having analyzed the AT&T case, one can more easily reflect on the consequences of similar structural consent decrees and the regulatory role assumed by antitrust agencies in markets. The benefits of the MFJ seem to exceed its costs. However, markets constantly change, and remedies must be implemented on a case-by-case basis. In the telecommunications industry, the current trend is toward consolidation.58 Market remedies need to be adapted to the specific needs of the market, which are always different. But is antitrust intervention appropriate in regulated markets where a regulator already exists?', "Regulation is complementary to competition. As Glen O. Robinson observed, “competition and regulation are like bread and butter.”59 The regulator's or legislator's intervention may sometimes be slower than the antitrust intervention. The latter is able to change the market dynamics *52 through a structural or behavioral consent decree; whereas the FCC or others regulators need to impose rules that involve the entire market, implying more steps and a longer procedure.", 'Timing in markets, especially in dynamic markets such as the telecommunications market, is critical. A rapid and tailored solution to correct a market failure is preferable to a delayed regulation or a set of laws enacted by the legislature. The European Commission recognized the ability of commitment decisions to ensure a flexible alternative to rapidly restore competition, especially in fast-moving digital markets.60 In antitrust enforcement, two possible scenarios exist. In the first scenario, antitrust agencies have no regulatory powers; thus, they can only impose sanctions to counter antitrust violations. In this case, antitrust intervention seems static and repetitive. In the second scenario, antitrust agencies can find a compromise with the companies being investigated, gaining efficiency through temporal and monetary transactions costs. This second scenario seems more flexible and respectful of market changes.', 'In sum, efficiency and consumer welfare seem to be better preserved by increasing collaboration among antitrust and regulatory agencies. Antitrust agencies can impose a quick structural or behavioral remedy in regulated markets, while benefiting from the unique expertise of regulators in each markets. Working together, both bodies should be able to achieve the most procompetitive result. Reaching a competitive outcome is important, but it can be costly when two agencies strive to achieve the same result.', 'C. How to Diverge Commitment Decisions/Consent Decrees from Prohibition Decisions', 'As the AT&T case shows, antitrust agencies can impose market rules in place of a regulator. But what are the concrete differences between commitment decisions/consent decrees and prohibition decisions? To clarify this distinction, I analyze some recent antitrust decisions. In Europe, the recent decisions on the payment sector are fitting to show such differences. In this sector, the Commission opened several investigations, all of which ended with both commitment decisions and prohibition decisions.', "*53 In particular, in September 2003 and June 2006, the European Commission sent two Statement of Objections on intra-European Economic Area (EEA) interchange fees, also known as multilateral interchange fees (“MIFs”), to Mastercard Europe SPRL and Mastercard International Inc.61The MIF is an interbank payment that concerns each transaction realized with a payment card. Mastercard, for example, adopted a business model for MIFs, which established a mechanism that effectively identified a minimum price merchants had to pay for accepting Mastercard cards. In practice, Mastercard's MIF is a charge imposed per payment at merchant outlets. Similarly, in April 2009, the Commission sent a Statement of Objection to Visa Europe Limited, Visa Inc., and Visa International Services Association. In this proceeding, the antitrust issue also concerned the MIF applied by Visa and the assumption that such interchange fee could harm competition between merchants' banks.62", "Although the antitrust issue in both cases was almost identical, the antitrust decision adopted by the enforcement agencies differed. In Mastercard's proceeding, the Commission identified an antitrust violation in adopting MIFs for cross-border payment card transactions; therefore, prohibiting Mastercard MIFs. The Court of Justice in September 2014 upheld the Commission's Mastercard decision.63 Conversely in Visa's proceeding, the Commission made Visa's commitments legally binding. Similar to the Mastercard case, in the Visa proceeding, the Commission was concerned about “i) [r]ules on ‘cross-border acquiring’ in the Visa system that limit the possibility for a merchant to befit from better conditions offered by banks established elsewhere in the internal market ... ii) All inter-bank fees set by Visa for transactions with consumer credit cards in the EEA.”64 The Commission identified these concerns and made the commitments legally binding in December 2010, establishing that: i) Visa must allow from 1 January 2015 acquirers “to apply a reduced cross-border inter-bank fee (0.3% for credit and 0.2% for debit transactions) for cross *54 border clients;”65 ii) “Visa Europe agrees to cap its credit card MIFs at 0.3% for all consumer credit card transactions in the EEA where Visa Europe sets the rate.”66 Finally with regard to transparency, Visa offered to “simplify its inter-bank fee structure and make the invoicing of card acceptance services more transparent to merchants.”67", "In sum, in the Mastercard case, after having investigated for four years, the European Commission concluded that Mastercard violated Article 81 of the Treaty (namely Art. 101 of the TFUE) and ordered it “to withdraw its intra-EEA cross-border MIFs within six months, or to adopt a MIF that fulfilled Article 101(3) TFEU Mastercard to apply its MIFs.”68 In the Visa case, the Commission accepted Visa's commitments, according to which Visa would reduce cross-border inter-bank fees and cap its credit card MIFs. The differences between the two antitrust decisions are evident. The duration of the Mastercard EU antitrust proceeding was longer than that of Visa and ended with a discovery of an antitrust violation. This implied that Mastercard could no longer apply its MIF and that its clients, and competitors who were harmed by such MIFs could claim damages for this antitrust violation. In addition to the claims produced for damages and bad advertising, the Mastercard decision represents a precedent, according to which imposing MIFs for cross-border payment card transactions is illegal.", "In contrast, no antitrust violation was found in Visa's proceeding. According to Recital 13 of Regulation 1/2003, “[co]mmitment decisions should find that there are no longer grounds for action by the Commission without concluding whether or not there has been or still is an infringement.”69 Thus, Visa could continue to apply MIFs, respecting the terms of the commitment decisions. In contrast to the Mastercard prohibition decision, Visa's commitment decision does not constitute a precedent, but only a settlement by which Visa agreed to take specific actions without admitting fault or guilt for the antitrust concerns that led to the Commission's investigation.", "Further, in July 2013, the European Commission proposed to the European Parliament and Council to implement European legislation that would cap, similar to the terms of Visa's decision, the level of interchange *55 fees payable by merchants.70 On December 17, 2014, the European Parliament and Council reached a political agreement on this Commission Proposal for a Regulation to cap inter-bank fees for card-based payments. Hence, in the Visa proceeding, the commitment decision seems to anticipate legislator intervention. The same Commission's proposal on interchange fees legislation appears to be a result of the decision of the Visa case. Thus, the latter antitrust decision again shows the concrete regulatory effect of a commitment decision, as well as the main difference between such decision and the prohibition decision. Commitment decisions regulate the market, whereas prohibition decisions create case law.", 'IV. CONCLUSION', 'The U.S. AT&T consent decree and the EU Visa commitment decision are only a couple of examples of how antitrust agencies can compete or, more precisely, collaborate with the regulator to impose rules on markets.', 'Consent decrees and commitment decisions are important antitrust devices that compete with prohibition decisions in drawing antitrust policy and in defining antitrust agency roles. Is the widespread use of consent decrees and commitment decisions appropriate in antitrust enforcement? Similar to a doctor in an emergency room, antitrust enforcement needs a tool to rapidly intervene to correct market failures, especially in dynamic markets where time is crucial. As with individuals suffering a health crisis, quick care is needed, and waiting is not opportune. Especially in Europe, commitment decisions often represent a painkiller. Commitment decisions and consent decrees can address the problem superficially, like a painkiller that alleviates symptoms but does not fight the disease.', "The Visa case shows that the Visa commitment decision only anticipated a regulated intervention that the European legislature implemented in the payment market. However, sometimes this antitrust tool not only anticipates but completely changes the dynamics of the market and the antitrust agency's role. For example, the AT&T consent decree marked the end of a natural monopoly. The Telecommunications Act of 1996 dealt with different competition concerns in the telecommunications industry and was complementary to the AT&T antitrust decision.", "The consent decree represents a flexible regulatory tool to quickly repair a market failure; it represents, especially in Europe, a painkiller on a *56 real set of rules. Although consent decrees changed antitrust agencies' traditional role, enforcing antitrust law through consent decrees and commitment decisions may be the correct course of action. Endowing antitrust agencies with this flexible antitrust tool appears appropriate and consistent with antitrust purposes and the markets' needs: increased flexibility, efficiency, and consumer welfare. Flexibility is a key word in competitive markets. However, it is important to bear in mind that when a market is diagnosed with a more critical disease, one should not continue to waste time with painkillers."] | [
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b633ef6440b56f72b5cabb35c563f1967645f238360fa004ccb60a84fe36ba8e | Decrees are locked in at early stages of litigation, so it’s much faster than a court ruling | null | Paul H. Sukenik 19, Attorney at Office of the Colorado State Public Defender, “The Earth Belongs to the Living, or At Least It Should: The Troubling Difficulty of Modifying Antitrust Consent Decrees,” 97 N.C. L. Rev. 734, WestLaw | the main objective behind consent decree in antitrust is efficiency . Consent decrees eliminate time and expense in litigating to capture this parties agree decrees relatively early in litigation Rather than continue as a zero-sum game come together and broker the most efficient solution | One of the main objective s behind the consent decree regime in antitrust regulation is efficiency . Consent decrees eliminate time and expense involved in litigating a dispute to capture this efficiency parties agree upon consent decrees relatively early in litigation Rather than allowing litigation to continue as a zero-sum game in which one will win and the other will lose decrees allow parties to come together and broker the most efficient , fair, and sustainable solution Consent decrees terms serve as rules for how defendant-corporations may behave in the future and gives DOJ recourse if the corporations violate rules | main objective efficiency eliminate time and expense litigating agree decrees relatively early in litigation litigation zero-sum game one win other lose come together efficient , fair, and sustainable solution rules may behave in the future DOJ recourse violate rules | ['A. The Function of Consent Decrees in Antitrust Regulation', "One of the main objectives behind the consent decree regime in antitrust regulation is efficiency. Consent decrees eliminate the time and expense involved in preparing for and fully litigating a dispute.56 In order to capture this efficiency, the parties generally agree upon consent decrees at a relatively early stage in the litigation.57 Consent decrees tend to reflect a degree of compromise because the agreements usually emerge from a series of secret, informal negotiations between counsel from the DOJ's Antitrust Division and the defendant's lawyers.58", 'Under the current regime, parties also benefit from using consent decrees to find common ground in disputes. Rather than allowing the litigation to continue as a zero-sum game in which one party will win and the other party will lose, consent decrees allow parties to come together and broker the most efficient, fair, and sustainable solution possible.', '*743 Consent decrees play an important role in antitrust regulation because their terms serve as rules for how defendant-corporations may behave in the future and gives the DOJ recourse if the corporations violate those rules. For instance, the ASCAP and BMI consent decrees created a separate Rate Court for ASCAP and BMI, which is used to adjudicate disputes between a PRO and a music user to determine reasonable license fees.59 This independent decisionmaking body serves to protect consumer interests because it safeguards against ASCAP and BMI using their near monopoly in the market to charge exorbitant prices.60 Additionally, the ASCAP and BMI consent decrees regulate the two dominant PROs by stipulating that agreements between composers and ASCAP or BMI are nonexclusive, meaning that composers remain free to directly license their works to a music user outside the PRO structure even if the composers are already members of ASCAP or BMI.61 This term of the consent decree limits the power and influence of ASCAP and BMI while fostering expansion in the marketplace by keeping the door open for smaller competitors to enter the fray.'] | [
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e81c693ea1befd0b5a80b3cb329455df316ff731c419051169a4ef36ef100b28 | Businesses use the CP to understand their legal obligations---it’s clear and deters. | null | A. Douglas Melamed 95, partner at Wilmer, Cutler & Pickering, Washington, DC, “Antitrust: The New Regulation,” 10-FALL Antitrust 13, Fall 1995, WestLaw | Consent decrees resolve uncertainty about legal duties and enable officials to address issues politically or economically important but legally ambiguous defendants enter where violation is uncertain obligations go beyond equitable relief what the government anticipate in a contested case antitrust counselors focus not just on whether conduct is illegal , but also on whether it displease antitrust officials guidelines make predicting less uncertain But the existence of the decree says little about the strength of the government's case | reasons parties enter a consent decree in an individual case are obvious and compelling . Consent decrees resolve uncertainty about defendants' legal duties , economize on enforcement and compliance resour ces , and enable officials to address issues that are politically or economically important but legally ambiguous defendants do not enter consent decrees when it is clear they have not violated the law, but commonly enter into consent decrees where the alleged violation is uncertain Consent decrees often impose mandatory obligations on parties that go beyond equitable relief go beyond what the government could realistically anticipate as a remedy in a contested case consent decrees subject private parties to regulatory jurisdiction in which the agency's approval is required before the defendant can adapt its conduct to the changing marketplace if so doing might contravene the decree the development of antitrust law , and the exegesis of the broad language of the antitrust statutes , is achieved, not by a process of adjudication but rather through negotiated agreements between defendants and the government As a consequence, antitrust counselors find themselves focus ing, not just on whether conduct contemplated by their clients is illegal , but also on whether it is likely to please or displease current antitrust officials . The increasing government guidelines make the process of predicting what the government will do less uncertain But individual defendants rationally enter into consent decrees whenever the costs imposed by the decree appear likely to be less than the costs they would incur in even successful litigation; the existence of the decree says little about the strength of the government's case | reasons individual case obvious compelling resolve uncertainty legal duties enforcement compliance resour ces officials politically or economically important legally ambiguous not clear not violated commonly uncertain mandatory obligations beyond equitable relief beyond realistically anticipate contested case subject antitrust law exegesis broad language antitrust statutes not adjudication negotiated agreements defendants government counselors focus just illegal also please or displease current antitrust officials increasing government guidelines predicting less uncertain individual defendants costs likely less successful existence of the decree little strength of the government's case | ['Increasing Use of Consent Decrees', 'First, the evolution of antitrust into a form of regulation is in part a by-product of the increasing use of consent decrees as the primary means of antitrust enforcement. The Antitrust Division, for example, entered into 8 consent decrees in 1993, 19 in 1994, and 12 in the first half of 1995. During this same period, the Division filed only five complaints that were not accompanied by consent decrees.', 'The record of the Federal Trade Commission is similar. The number of consent decrees put out for comment by the Commission has continually increased. There were 5 in 1992, 9 in 1993, 15 in 1994, and 22 in the first six and one-half months of 1995.', "The reasons that the parties enter into a consent decree in an individual case are usually obvious and often compelling. Consent decrees resolve uncertainty about the defendants' legal duties, economize on enforcement and compliance resources, and enable government officials to address issues that are politically or economically important but legally ambiguous. Presumably, defendants do not enter into consent decrees when it is clear that they have not violated the law, but it appears that defendants commonly enter into consent decrees where the alleged violation is uncertain and the costs of the consent decree *14 remedy are likely to be less than the costs of even a successful defense in litigation.", 'While enforcement by consent decree does not necessarily move markedly toward a Regulatory Model of antitrust, the heavy reliance on consent decrees as the principal means of antitrust enforcement has had that effect. Three aspects of enforcement by consent decree have conspired to produce this result.', 'First, perhaps because consent decree proceedings tend to focus more on the remedy than the wrong, the requirements of consent decrees are sometimes regulatory in nature. Consent decrees often impose mandatory obligations on the parties that go beyond the proper purposes of equitable relief under the Law Enforcement Model -- cessation or prevention of illegal conduct and, as a temporary transitional measure, dissipating whatever market power may have been created by unlawful conduct in the past. Indeed, some consent decree remedies appear to go beyond what the government could realistically anticipate as a remedy in a contested case.1', "Second, consent decrees have the effect of subjecting private parties to a kind of regulatory jurisdiction of the government enforcement agency, in which the agency's approval is required before the defendant can adapt its conduct to the changing marketplace if so doing might contravene the terms of a decree that was agreed to at a different time and for a different purpose. That appears to be the principal effect of the TCI/Liberty decree, for example, because the decree requires little more than that the parties comply with the law.2", 'Like other forms of regulation, consent decrees sometimes create constituencies, often competitors, that have an interest in maintaining the restrictions imposed upon the defendant. And, like other forms of regulation, consent decrees sometimes take on a life of their own as they endure, and are applied, in circumstances that bear little if any relationship to the alleged violations on which they were initially based.', "The recent reluctance of the Antitrust Division to consent to terminate certain ancient decrees demonstrates the jurisdictional function of the decrees. For example, the 1921 Kodak decree, now more than seventy years old, has either already dissipated the effects of Kodak's antitrust violation or is not going to do so in the future; yet the Division has opposed Kodak's effort to terminate the decree on the ground that Kodak still has market power and thus needs to be regulated.3 While Kodak litigated the matter, other defendants choose not to incur the litigation costs needed to modify or terminate a decree without the government's consent and thus remain subject to decrees that may have long outlived their initial purpose.", "The jurisdictional role of antitrust consent decrees is of course best illustrated by the Modification of Final Judgment (MFJ) in United States v. Western Electric Company.4 The decree was intended to deal with the problem of bottleneck monopoly in local, wired telephone service, and it has given the Antitrust Division a broad supervisory role over that business. It has had other, unforeseen effects as well. The MFJ requires, among other things, that the Bell Operating Companies (BOCs) give all long-distance carriers equal access to their telephone customers. Because of the way the literal language of the MFJ has been applied to the BOCs, together with the AT&T/McCaw consent decree5 and the Division's recent effort to apply the MFJ to AirTouch (which used to be owned by a BOC but is now a wholly separate company), it is clear that the Division intends to retain (or extend) consent decree jurisdiction to apply the “equal access” requirement of the MFJ to cellular providers. The Division takes that position, even though there was no commercial cellular service when the MFJ was entered, cellular providers are not bottleneck monopolies, and cellular providers have not been alleged to have violated the antitrust laws by denying equal access to long distance carriers. The MFJ has become, in effect, a device for Antitrust Division regulation of both the wired and the wireless telephony industry.", 'The third, and perhaps most important, way in which enforcement by consent decree moves antitrust enforcement from the Law Enforcement Model toward the Regulatory Model stems from the fact that, by their very nature, consent decrees avoid litigation of the allegations in the complaint. Entry of a consent decree thus pretermits determining whether the conduct in which the defendant engaged was unlawful or even whether the conduct alleged in the complaint is unlawful.6 The result is that the development of antitrust law, and the exegesis of the broad language of the antitrust statutes, is achieved, not by a process of adjudication with the attendant common law rigor, but rather through negotiated agreements between individual defendants and the government.', 'As a consequence, antitrust counselors find themselves focusing, not just on whether conduct contemplated by their clients is illegal, but also on whether it is likely to please or displease the current antitrust officials. The increasing number of government enforcement guidelines help make the process of predicting what the government will do less uncertain, but they merely underscore the fact that antitrust law is coming to the point that what matters is not what the law requires, but rather what the present government wants.', "Proponents of enforcement by consent decree suggest that there is not likely to be any important divergence between what the law requires and the violations alleged in complaints that are accompanied by consent decrees. They reason that the consent of the defendant is evidence that the government's case is strong and that the costs of the decree are modest. Sometimes that is true. But individual defendants rationally enter into consent decrees whenever the costs imposed upon them by the decree appear likely to be less than the costs they would incur in even a successful litigation; the existence of the decree thus itself says little about the strength of the government's case."] | [
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a018a67f795ca916689355836dcb5de5b800009cdc15643ee5984d9b3ffcab55 | Extinction | null | Gro Harlem Brundtland 20, first woman Prime Minister of Norway and former Director-General of the World Health Organization; leading advocate on global preparedness for pandemics; put sustainable development on the international agenda, “Nationalism and partisan politics make it harder to tackle the existential threats to humanity,” The Elders, 5/14/20, https://theelders.org/news/nationalism-and-partisan-politics-make-it-harder-tackle-existential-threats-humanity | Covid call to become more collaborative highlight vigilance to protect peace , in knowledge of tyranny , war and w m d exposed interconnected global risks demands global response partisan politics hamper effective response make it harder to tackle existential threats climate change and nuclear weapons | Covid is forcing huge changes which may become permanent We are being call ed upon to become more flexible and collaborative highlight the need for sustained vigilance to protect global peace , in the knowledge of the devastating consequences of tyranny , war and w m d the world faces a threat as deadly as any arsenal , and which makes a mockery of any pretentions to superiority Covid knows no borders is leaving a devastating cost It has exposed the interconnected nature of global risks A global crisis demands a global response partisan politics not only hamper an effective response to Covid they also make it harder for the world to collectively tackle existential threats that will continue even after this pandemic abates, in particular climate change and nuclear weapons | Covid call flexible collaborative vigilance global peace tyranny war w m d deadly as any arsenal mockery no borders devastating cost interconnected nature of global risks global response partisan politics Covid also collectively tackle existential threats continue even after this pandemic abates, in particular climate change and nuclear weapons | ['The strange new reality of Covid-19 is forcing huge changes on all of us, some of which may become permanent features of how we live, work and organise our societies.', 'We are all being called upon to become more flexible, more adept with technology and more collaborative across borders and time zones.', 'I would like to commend the organisers of this Virtual People’s Forum, particularly the UN 2020 Partnership and Together First, for their ambition and dedication in bringing all of us speakers together.', '2020 was always going to be an important year for those of us who are committed to the values and institutions of multilateralism. The year marks the 75th anniversary of the end of the Second World War, the detonation of the atomic bombs in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and the creation of the United Nations.', 'These interconnected anniversaries highlight the need for sustained vigilance to protect global peace, in the knowledge of the devastating consequences of tyranny, war and weapons of mass destruction.', 'But today the whole world faces a threat as deadly as any arsenal, and which makes a mockery of any pretentions to national “greatness” or superiority over others.', 'Covid-19 knows no borders and does not respect national sovereignty. The pandemic is leaving a devastating cost; first and foremost in human lives, but also in terms of economic growth, political momentum and social inequality.', 'It has exposed the interconnected nature of global risks, and the extent to which even well-resourced health systems can be rapidly overwhelmed when crises hit.', 'A global crisis demands a global response. Yet the virus has struck at a time when the multilateral system was already subject to a sustained and targeted assault. This has made it harder for leaders and institutions to respond effectively and save lives, as we can see with the failure thus far of the UN Security Council to agree a resolution in support of the Secretary-General’s call for a global Covid-19 ceasefire.', 'I served as the Director-General of the World Health Organisation during the SARS crisis in 2002-3. This means I am very conscious of the importance of multilateral cooperation in tackling pandemics, and of the difficulties that multilateral institutions, including the WHO, face in persuading member states to respond in the global interest to such threats.', 'It is essential that countries support the work of the WHO and provide it with the necessary funding to carry out its work, including through implementing the recommendations of the Global Preparedness Monitoring Board.', 'The WHO should be enabled to work on behalf of the entire world, acting solely on the best available scientific and medical evidence.', 'The virus will not be overcome unless states work together, pooling resources and expertise to strengthen health systems, develop an effective vaccine, protect health workers and provide the necessary care to all who need it in society, including vulnerable groups such as refugees, migrants, the elderly and infirm.', 'For developed countries, this responsibility extends to supporting poorer states with humanitarian aid, debt relief and political counsel via the mechanisms of the UN, G20, World Bank and other international fora. ', 'This network of international covenants and institutions, agreed and constructed since the end of the Second World War with the United Nations at its core, is far from perfect.', 'There are strong arguments for reviewing and reforming institutions and processes, particularly so the multilateral system better reflects the diversity of the human family and gives a voice to women, young people and other marginalised groups in society.', 'But it has nevertheless decisively supported the pursuit of peace, security and the protection of human rights, as well as economic and social improvements, around the globe, for over seven decades.', 'This is why it is so important now, in the UN’s 75th anniversary year and in the face of this deadly pandemic, for member states and global citizens to recommit themselves to the values of the UN Charter.', 'The siren songs of isolationism and populist nationalism need to be countered with a strong global chorus in support of cooperation, justice and human rights.', 'Narrow nationalism and partisan politics not only hamper an effective response to Covid-19, they also make it harder for the world to collectively tackle the existential threats that will continue even after this pandemic abates, in particular climate change and nuclear weapons.'] | [
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c872195d78c6099aa25c78b3b867c985d5eac263cf0e316df72dae9a748118d3 | If anything, they link more---OLRC participation is inevitable because ALL laws are codified---if it causes confusion, so does the plan---that’s Cross---AND… | null | David S. Louk 19, Academic Fellow, Columbia Law School; Ph.D., Jurisprudence & Social Policy, UC Berkeley 2019; J.D., Yale Law School 2015, “The Audiences of Statutes,” 105 Cornell L. Rev. 137, December 2019, WestLaw | once a statute is enacted O L R C transmutes enacted statute into Code | Being attentive to statutory audience can help clarify when a statutory term should be given broad meaning, or more specific and narrow meaning appropriate to the principal audience where the statutory scheme primarily addresses a particular subset of the population, there are good reasons to doubt a term should always be given its broadest meaning contemporary lawyers' focus on the U.S. Code can obscure evidence of distinctive statutory audiences once a federal statute is enacted into law, the O L R C transmutes Congress's enacted statute at large into specific and segmented provisions of the U.S. Code | clarify broad specific narrow doubt focus on the U.S. Code obscure distinctive statutory audiences enacted O L R C transmutes specific and segmented provisions of the U.S. Code | ['A. Identifying the Principal Audience', 'Being attentive to statutory audience can help to clarify when a statutory term should be given its broadest permissible ordinary meaning, or a more specific and narrower meaning appropriate to the principal audience of the statute in question. In particular, where the statutory scheme primarily addresses a particular subset of the general population, there are good reasons to doubt that a term contained therein should always be given its broadest permissible meaning.', "*200 Consider Yates v. United States,274 a recent instant classic of statutory interpretation. In Yates, the Supreme Court examined whether a fish was a “tangible object” whose destruction was prohibited by the Sarbanes-Oxley Act's prohibition on the destruction of evidence intended to “impede, obstruct, or influence” a federal investigation.275 The defendant in Yates, a commercial fisherman, had been caught offshore by the Coast Guard with several dozen slightly undersized deep-sea fish in violation of federal fisheries law; Yates dumped the fish before returning to harbor so as to avoid being assessed a penalty back on shore.276 Yates was subsequently convicted of knowingly impeding a federal investigation by destroying the fish, in violation of Sarbanes-Oxley's prohibition on the destruction of tangible objects.", "At trial and on appeal, the defendant argued that the tangible object destruction prohibition should be read in light of its passage as part of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act.277 Sarbanes-Oxley was enacted in the wake of the Enron Corporation's corporate accounting scandal, which included systematic accounting fraud as well as the destruction of numerous incriminating financial documents related to the scandal. In Yates, the defendant asserted that the retention of “tangible object[s]” subject to the statute were document-related objects such as computer hard drives and logbooks that were reasonably related to evidence of financial fraud, not every conceivable tangible object.278", 'In Yates, a majority of the Court sided with the defendant, reversing his conviction.279 Justice Ginsburg, writing for the plurality, acknowledged that while the term “tangible object” as a matter of pure signification could encompass an object such as a fish, the legal meaning of the term was cabined both by the linguistic context of the words surrounding it,280 as well as the legislative context, given its passage as part of Sarbanes-Oxley.281 Writing for four dissenting Justices, Justice *201 Elena Kagan countered that the term should mean the same thing in Sarbanes-Oxley “as it means in everyday language--any object capable of being touched.”282 Although not articulated as such, the core of the disagreement turned on the principal audience of the statute: was the tangible-object destruction prohibition best understood narrowly, targeting auditors and corporate officers involved in document management and retention, or understood broadly, empowering law enforcement officers to target every member of society and every tangible object?', "The plurality chose the narrower interpretation, in part on the basis of the more specific audience at which the statute was directed. Sarbanes-Oxley was enacted to address financial crimes, and so the audience that the statute seemed most clearly intended to reach were corporate officers and auditors,283 not commercial fishermen. Moreover, the plurality noted that contextual clues throughout the statute supported this narrower reading. The section containing the prohibition was entitled, “Criminal Penalties for Altering Documents,”284 and the prohibition's heading indicated an audience of corporate officers and auditors involved in criminal fraud by means of the “[d]estruction, alteration, or falsification of records.”285 Moreover, although not mentioned by the plurality, but in support of its conclusion, the tangible object provision was part of a subsidiary act incorporated into Sarbanes-Oxley and separately subtitled the “Corporate and Criminal Fraud Accountability Act,” further suggesting that the tangible object provision was aimed at corporate fraud.286", "Yates also reflects how contemporary lawyers' focus on the U.S. Code can sometimes obscure evidence of distinctive statutory audiences specific to the statute in question. Today, once a federal statute is enacted into law, the Office of the Law Revision Counsel transmutes Congress's enacted statute at large into specific and segmented provisions of the U.S. Code; *202 often left out altogether are important portions of the bill, such as the legislative findings and purposes--which may help to clarify the principal audience(s) the statute seeks to address.287 As Sarbanes-Oxley was subsumed into the U.S. Code,288 both the heading and the short title noted above disappeared, along with the indication that the tangible-evidencedestruction prohibition was contained within Sarbanes-Oxley, a statute seeking to remedy white-collar criminal fraud. "] | [
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97a76ae3faf0538fafa04dd4f212d84fa2f446e7d80452b2bd2c239eaea8d75a | Nearly all lawyers experience statutory law exclusively through the vehicle of US Code. They totally overlook underlying law. | null | Kevin M. Stack 19, Lee S. & Charles A. Speir Professor of Law, Vanderbilt Law School, “The Enacted Purposes Canon,” 105 Iowa L. Rev. 283, November 2019, WestLaw | codification s take place in a legal culture that treats Code as shorthand for federal legislation invites the perception that Code is a comprehensive statement of law citation s are telling. The Bluebook from requiring only public law to only U.S. Code a clear message about what the community considers authoritative casual identification of our corpus of legislation with the Code suggests lawyers resolve statutory issues based on Code , not free-standing statutes the set of decisions, briefs, and client advice in which provisions are overlooked is vast | it is important to recall what the U S Code is and how it is populated with legislation The OLRC has statutory responsibility for preparing and updating U S Code the Office takes newly passed public laws and fits in the titles of the U.S. Code In some cases, the task of placing new public laws in the U.S. Code is straightforward But much new legislation amends various parts of the existing corpus of legislation, and the organization of the new legislation often does not neatly map the organization of the Code As a result, individual statutes often end up being codified in scattered provisions of the Code. These codification practice s take place in a legal culture that frequently treats the Code as a shorthand for the corpus of all federal legislation Talk of “whole code” canons invites the incorrect perception that the U.S. Code is a comprehensive statement of the law in the tradition of a civil law code . In this regard, our citation practice s are telling. The Bluebook moved from requiring citation only to the public law to requiring citation to the public law and U.S. Code to requiring citation only to the U.S. Code This shift carries a clear message about what the legal community considers an authoritative source of federal legislation . The casual identification of our corpus of federal legislation with the Code suggests lawyers can resolve statutory issues based on the Code , not by free-standing statutes . It invites lawyers to view the Code as significant the set of court decisions, briefs, and client advice in which provisions are overlooked is vast | what the U S Code is how it is populated OLRC statutory responsibility preparing updating U S Code fits in the titles of the U.S. Code straightforward amends new neatly map organization of the Code scattered provisions codification s legal culture treats the Code as a shorthand for the corpus of all federal legislation incorrect perception Code comprehensive statement of the law in the tradition of a civil law code citation s Bluebook only public law and only U.S. Code clear message about what the legal community considers an authoritative source of federal legislation casual identification of our corpus of federal legislation with the Code statutory issues Code not free-standing statutes lawyers view Code significant court decisions, briefs, and client advice provisions overlooked vast | ['B. ENACTED PURPOSES, THE U.S. CODE, AND STATUTORY CULTURE', 'One might think that the way in which statutory provisions appear in the United States Code is so elemental that it would hardly merit discussion. But how the Code includes purpose provisions obscures these provisions in several important ways.', "To appreciate how the Code does so, it is first important to recall what the United States Code is and how it is populated with legislation. The Office of Law Revision Counsel (“OLRC”), an office in the House of Representatives, has statutory responsibility for preparing and updating the United States Code.278 That job has two main elements. The first is the job we imagine--the Office takes newly passed public laws and fits in the titles of the U.S. Code. Second, the OLRC also periodically assembles and reorganizes Code's titles, and submits them to Congress for reenactment as a consolidated title. To date, about half of the titles have been reenacted in this manner, and are called “positive” titles, to contrast them with the remainder of the code, the “nonpositive” titles.279 Positive titles, because they have been reenacted as such in a public law, are authoritative sources, but the remainder of the Code, the nonpositive titles, are merely prima facie evidence of the law.280", "In some cases, the task of placing new public laws in the U.S. Code is straightforward. The Law Revision Counsel can simply drop the provisions of the public law in a title of the Code, swapping the law's sections for new code section numbers. But much new legislation amends various parts of the existing corpus of federal legislation, and the organization of the new *329 legislation often does not neatly map the topical organization of the Code. As a result, individual statutes often end up being codified in scattered provisions of the Code.", "When legislation includes an enacted statement of purpose, how are they codified in the Code? The OLRC typically takes one of two approaches, both with downsides. The first is to give the statute's purpose provision its own Code sections, just like any other statutory provision. This has the advantage of highlighting the purpose provision's existence within the Code.281 But it has other effects as well. Because many statutes are codified in scattered or separated provisions, purpose provisions are separated from the provisions they accompanied when enacted. That disrupts the link between the purpose provision and the statutory provisions to which it speaks.", 'Moreover, the mere fact of inclusion of public laws into a larger legal corpus--the United States Code--diminishes the centrality of purpose provisions. In a public law, the purpose provision leads and structures the provisions that follow; it purports to speak to the entire statute. But once a public law is placed in the Code, the enacted purpose provision appears as part of this new legal entity, the Code, alongside many other Code provisions; the Code clouds the connections between purpose provisions and the statutory provisions with which they were enacted.', 'Frequently and even more worrisome, enacted purpose provisions do not even make it into the text of the United States Code. Instead, the OLRC places purpose statements in the Notes of the Code, which are reproduced under the numbered Code sections in the place a footnote would appear.282 The relegation of purpose provision to the Notes of the Code has no formal legal effect. The text of the law in the Statutes-at-Large, not the text of the U.S. Code, controls.283', '*330 These codification practices take place in a legal culture that frequently treats the Code as a shorthand for the corpus of all federal legislation.284 Talk of “whole code” canons invites the incorrect perception that the U.S. Code is a comprehensive statement of the law in the tradition of a civil law code. In this regard, our citation practices are telling. The Bluebook: A Uniform System of Citation moved in 1926, the year of publication of the U.S. Code, from requiring citation only to the public law,285 to requiring citation to the public law and U.S. Code,286 to requiring citation only to the U.S. Code whenever a citation is available.287 This shift carries a clear message about what the legal community considers an authoritative source of federal legislation.', "Neglect is likely to be particularly acute for purpose provisions relegated to the Notes of the Code. In the official version of the Code, the Notes are parsimonious, appearing as discrete additions following the text of the Code provision. But today, few open hard-bound copies of the U.S. Code. The most widely used legal research tools, Westlaw and Lexis, further confuse the place of these official Notes. In Westlaw, the Notes of the Code appear under a tab labeled “History” (which they are not), and then under the heading of “Editor's and Revision Notes.”288 Those Editor's and Revision Notes mix Westlaw's own content with the official Notes in a way that makes it difficult to distinguish. Lexis also places the official Notes under the tab heading of “History” and reorganizes their content. These choices send the misleading *331 impression that the official Code Notes are just a collection of miscellaneous editorial notes or are merely of historical interest.289 Surprisingly few lawyers and judges--even those who deal with federal legislation--know that purpose provisions are frequently relegated to the Notes of the U.S. Code.", 'The casual identification of our corpus of federal legislation with the Code diminishes the intrinsic importance of purpose provisions. It suggests that lawyers can resolve statutory issues based on the analysis of the Code, not by integrating free-standing statutes. It invites lawyers to view placement in the Code as significant.290 And it creates a pathway for overlooking purpose provisions, either because they are relegated to Notes within the Code or isolated from the operative provisions they address. Indeed, Shobe identifies several cases in which the Supreme Court ignores relevant purpose statements, including those that appeared in the Notes to the Code.291 No doubt the set of court decisions, briefs, and client advice in which purpose provisions are overlooked is vast.', 'Recognition of the enacted purposes canon reinforces that our federal legislation requires statutory, not code, interpretation. And statutory interpretation should begin by asking whether the statute includes an enacted purpose.'] | [
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bcb788edddeacc3ba8c334fbe9584a9023b56bdc0b70ac0f917b3f41431e89c6 | No one cares about what the underlying authorization says. Studies of legal authority stop at the US Code and assume that it is binding. | null | William Baude & Stephen E. Sachs 19, William Baude, Professor of Law and Aaron Director Research Scholar, University of Chicago; Stephen E. Sachs, Professor of Law, Duke University School of Law, “Grounding Originalism,” 113 Nw. U. L. Rev. 1455, 2019, WestLaw | Federal statutes can be found in the Statutes at Large and U S Code the Statutes at Large is more legally authoritative Code is assembled outside the lawmaking process by O L R C If you look only at citation s of the Supreme Court, you be ignorant of this opinions addressing statutes cit U.S. Code , without tracing those to the Statutes at Large Lawyers and judges use U.S. Code daily and forget to double-check law beneath | Consider how courts deal with statutes in the American legal system . Federal statutes can be found in several different collections of books , most importantly in the Statutes at Large and the U S Code . Of these the Statutes at Large , and not the Code , is more legally authoritative The reason is that the Statutes contains nearly everything enacted by Congress pursuant to the process laid out in Article I The U.S. Code is assembled outside of the lawmaking process by the O L R C a group of unelected officials appointed to recompile and reorganize the enacted text If you look ed only at the citation practice s of the Supreme Court, you might well be ignorant of all this opinions addressing federal statutes provide cit ations to U.S. Code , without in turn tracing those provisions back to their exact pedigree in the Statutes at Large , let alone to the provisions that empower Congress to enact laws Much of our legal system lacks the formality of the U.S. Code. But this example confirms that the first layer of legal citations doesn't reflect the deep structure of the law. Lawyers and judges use the U.S. Code on a daily basis and often forget to double-check the law that lies beneath lawyers and judges might write extensively about the income tax without first reciting the portions of the Sixteenth Amendment that authorized it | statutes American legal system several different collections of books Statutes at Large U S Code Statutes at Large not Code more legally authoritative reason U.S. Code outside lawmaking process O L R C unelected officials recompile reorganize look only at citation s of the Supreme Court, you be ignorant of this addressing federal statutes cit U.S. Code without tracing back to their exact pedigree in the Statutes at Large , let alone to the provisions that empower Congress to enact laws first layer of legal citations doesn't reflect deep structure use the U.S. Code on a daily basis often forget double-check the law beneath income tax Sixteenth Amendment authorized it | ['1. Evidence', "In assessing the evidence, Barzun places too much weight on the lack of an explicit and complete pedigree in individual judicial opinions, in a way that's disconnected from ordinary norms of citation and opinion-writing. The fact that courts don't always trace their reasoning all the way back to the rule *1479 of recognition doesn't mean that there is no rule of recognition animating that reasoning; it simply means that we have to look harder and more carefully to see if there is one.", 'Consider, by analogy, how courts deal with statutes in the American legal system. Federal statutes can be found in several different collections of books, most importantly in both the Statutes at Large and the United States Code. Of these two, the Statutes at Large, and not the U.S. Code, is the more legally authoritative source.154 The reason for this is that the Statutes at Large contains nearly everything enacted by Congress pursuant to the process laid out in Article I.155 The U.S. Code is assembled outside of the lawmaking process by the Office of the Law Revision Counsel, a group of unelected officials appointed by the Speaker of the House to recompile and reorganize the enacted text.156 (Some volumes of the Code are sometimes then enacted by Congress and thereby turned into positive law,157 at least until those volumes are again amended by new statutes.158)', 'If you looked only at the citation practices of the Supreme Court, you might well be ignorant of all this. Many opinions addressing federal statutes provide citations to the U.S. Code, without in turn tracing those provisions back to their exact pedigree in the Statutes at Large, let alone to the provisions that empower Congress to enact laws.159 Sometimes, U.S. Code citations are even required by rules of court.160 But it would be a mistake to conclude from this citation practice that there is no legal hierarchy between the Code and the Statutes at Large--or that this citation practice reflects any abandonment of the requirements of Article I.', 'Rather, one has to look a little harder to discover the true official story of federal statutory law. For one thing, the Code and the Statutes themselves *1480 agree on their relative authority.161 And in the rare cases in which the question becomes relevant, legal experts do indeed remember the true hierarchy. In U.S. National Bank of Oregon v. Independent Insurance Agents of America,162 the Supreme Court considered the validity of the Act of Sept. 7, 1916, 39 Stat. 753, part of which had been omitted from the U.S. Code for over forty years “with a note indicating that Congress had repealed it in 1918.”163 Nonetheless, the Court concluded that the omitted statute was still legally operative, construing the repealing act more narrowly than the codifiers had--and applying the oft-forgotten rule that the U.S. Code is merely “‘prima facie’ evidence that the provision has the force of law,” while the Statutes at Large are “legal evidence.”164 Indeed, even the “enacted” titles of the U.S. Code, which do enjoy the status of “legal evidence,”165 are displaced by subsequent uncodified provisions of the Statutes at Large--for example, the provisions governing the appointment of the FBI director.166', "Much of our legal system lacks the formality of the U.S. Code. 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759a6194af92298329bd67051f490a29c9bb4912c2cb318919298a663b02525a | US Code is a summary of the law---NOT the law itself. Specifically, the ‘antitrust laws’ are the underlying laws found in the Statutes at Large, NOT their codified distillation. | null | Mary Whisner 9, Reference Librarian, Marian Gould Gallagher Law Library, University of Washington School of Law, Seattle, Washington, “The United States Code, Prima Facie Evidence, and Positive Law,” 101 Law Libr. J. 545, Fall 2009, WestLaw | When law is enacted it is public law in Statutes at Large for researchers laws are codified in U S Code The Code provides “prima facie” evidence of laws In contrast , the Statutes at Large are “legal ev of laws The difference is If you cite Code , your adversary may show Code is not accurate Clayton creates treble damages --for the antitrust laws What are “the antitrust laws”? R P A was codified within range for “antitrust laws” The Supreme Court said the codified sections not part of the “antitrust laws”: While we think of Code as law , Congress did not vote on and the President did not sign U S Code | Most of us can find our way around the United States Code When a law is enacted it is given a public law number reflecting when it was passed Laws are published in chronological order in United States Statutes at Large Because that chronological arrangement isn't efficient for researchers the laws are codified in the U nited S tates Code The U S Code self-referentially provides that it is “prima facie” evidence of the general and permanent laws in force at a given date In contrast , the Statutes at Large are “legal ev idence of laws The difference is this If you go into court and cite a section of the U nited S tates Code , your adversary may bring in a dozen Statutes at Large to show that what is in the Code is not an accurate statement . As a result, he may prevail because Statutes at Large are legal evidence of the law, whereas the Code is only prima facie evidence An example illustrates some of the benefits and hazards of codification. Section 4 of the Clayton Act creates a private cause of action--with treble damages --for “any person who shall be injured in his business or property by reason of anything forbidden in the antitrust laws What laws are “the antitrust laws”? They're listed in section 1 of the Clayton Act In the U S Code , this definition appeared as: “‘Antitrust laws' includes sections 1 to 27 of this chapter you can see an advantage of codification: the definition in the code is much easier to read On the one hand, the R obinson- P atman A ct was codified within the range for “antitrust laws” On the other hand, section 3 isn't listed in the definition in the Clayton Act The Supreme Court said that the the codified sections did not make them part of the “antitrust laws”: Congress specifically provided that the underlying statute must prevail While we think of the U S Code as law , Congress did not vote on and the President did not sign the U S Code because mistakes find their way into a project as big as a code of all the laws The Senate insisted that the new code not be binding, just in case | United States Code enacted public law number chronological Statutes at Large chronological efficient for researchers codified U S Code U S Code self-referentially provides “prima facie” evidence general and permanent laws contrast Statutes at Large “legal ev of laws difference this U S Code not an accurate statement prevail Statutes at Large legal evidence only prima facie An example benefits hazards Section 4 of the Clayton Act treble damages antitrust laws “the antitrust laws”? section 1 of the Clayton Act U S Code appeared sections 1 to 27 of this chapter advantage much easier to read R P A codified section 3 isn't listed in the definition Clayton Act Supreme Court codified sections not part of the “antitrust laws”: specifically provided underlying statute think U S Code law not vote on did not sign U S Code mistakes insisted that the new code not be binding, just in case | ["¶1 Pretty much every legal researcher in the United States has to deal with federal statutes. Even in what is mostly a state practice, federal issues arise. Just handling divorces? Think about possible social security benefits post-retirement and who will claim the kids as dependents on federal tax returns. Defending clients charged with state crimes? Remember the criminal procedure guarantees from the United States Constitution. Helping a client set up a business? Don't forget federal labor, trademark, tax, and environmental laws.", '¶2 Most of us can find our way around the United States Code, United States Code Annotated, United States Code Service, and United States Statutes at Large. But I still had some questions about codification, so I went exploring, and in this article I will share with you what I learned.', 'The Basic Spiel', '¶3 First there are the basics that we often teach to students:', '• When a law is enacted--passed by the House and the Senate and signed by the President--it is given a public law number reflecting when it was passed (which *546 “Congress”) and the order it came within that Congress. For example, Pub. L. No. 108-1 was the first law of the 108th Congress.2', '• Laws are published in chronological order in United States Statutes at Large (Stat.).', "• Because that chronological arrangement isn't efficient for researchers (imagine looking at every volume since 1935 to find all the amendments to the Social Security Act!), the laws are sorted into subjects (“codified”) in the United States Code (U.S.C.).", "• The U.S.C. is divided into fifty titles with broad subjects--e.g., title 7, Agriculture; title 8, Aliens (i.e., immigration and naturalization); title 20, Education. You can't assume too much about the title groupings though. For instance, federal employment discrimination laws are in title 42, Public Welfare, and not title 20, Labor, as you might guess.", "• Titles are divided into sections. If you look at the table of contents, you'll see that they're grouped into chapters and subchapters, but you don't cite those--just the title and the section.", '• Small changes are made in codification to make cross-references work--for instance, changing a reference to a section within the act to a section in the Code.3', '• Private publishers put out annotated editions of the United States Code-- United States Code Annotated (U.S.C.A.) and United States Code Service (U.S.C.S.)--that are even more useful for researchers. They include the text of the laws, with the same numbering as U.S.C., and following each section of the code they also list relevant secondary sources and give brief summaries of cases.4', '• These sets are generally much more current than the U.S.C.--another big bonus for researchers. You update by checking pocket parts and supplements at the end of the sets. The versions on Westlaw or LexisNexis are even more up to date.', "¶4 Sometimes a student asks, “If the U.S.C. is easier for researchers, why would we ever look at Statutes at Large?” I start with this answer: Sometimes you care about the whole act as Congress passed it, before it was split up and codified, and sometimes you want to see when a particular provision was added. Moreover, if there's any change in language between Statutes at Large and U.S.C., the language *547 in Statutes at Large governs. The United States Code is only prima facie evidence of the law for much of the code. But some titles (marked with asterisks at the front of the bound volumes) have been enacted into positive law.", "¶5 And that's where the questions can start us on our way out to sea. What is “positive law”? What difference does it really make in practice? How often does it come up that there's a typo or some other change in the United States Code?. What other changes would there be, anyway? Why did Congress enact those titles as positive law? Is Congress going to enact any more?", "¶6 After we look at sample pages from the official and annotated codes, someone often asks, “If U.S.C.A. and U.S.C.S. are so handy, why should we bother with U.S.C.?” Short answer: Because the Bluebook says you have to. A longer answer would add that it's often helpful to be able to see a chapter or subchapter printed on big pages without annotations to figure out how the sections fit together. Sometimes you want a copy of just the statute, without all the pages of annotations in between sections. And then one could add: “Well, because it's official, and if there's a typo in one of the others, the U.S.C. version would count.” But then you'd only have somebody ask: “Come on, how often does that really happen?”5", "¶7 It is questions like these that I want to address here. We still won't have time to spell out all the details about positive law and codification in a short class, but we will know more ourselves and be better able to answer student questions.6", 'Prima Facie Evidence of the Law', '¶8 The United States Code self-referentially provides that it is “prima facie” evidence of the general and permanent laws in force at a given date-- except that the titles that have been enacted as positive law are “legal evidence of the laws therein contained ....”7 In contrast, the Statutes at Large are “legal evidence of laws ....”8 The difference between prima facie and legal evidence is this:', 'If you go into court and cite a section of the United States Code, your adversary may bring in a dozen Statutes at Large to show that what is in the Code is not an accurate statement. As a result, he may prevail because the Statutes at Large are legal evidence of the law, whereas the Code is only prima facie evidence.9', "¶9 And there are cases where that has happened. For example, the Treasury Department once relied on a provision in the United States Code that did not reflect an amendment, so the agency's regulation imposed a requirement on taxpayers that *548 was not in the current statute. The I.R.S. tried to collect, based on the regulation, but the court went back to the Statutes at Large and held for the taxpayer.10", '¶10 Another example, while harder to explain, illustrates some of the benefits and hazards of codification. Section 4 of the Clayton Act creates a private cause of action--with treble damages--for “any person who shall be injured in his business or property by reason of anything forbidden in the antitrust laws ....”11 In the 1934 United States Code, that section was codified in title 15, section 15 (as it is still, with amendments).', "¶11 What laws are “the antitrust laws”? They're listed in section 1 of the Clayton Act:", '“[A]ntitrust laws,” as used herein, includes the Act entitled “An Act to protect trade and commerce against unlawful restraints and monopolies,” approved July second, eighteen hundred and ninety; sections seventy-three to seventy-seven, inclusive, of an Act entitled “An Act to reduce taxation, to provide revenue for the Government, and for other purposes,” of August twenty-seventh, eighteen hundred and ninety-four; an Act entitled “An Act to amend sections seventy-three and seventy-six of the Act of August twenty-seventh, eighteen hundred and ninety-four, entitled ‘An Act to reduce taxation, to provide revenue for the Government, and for other purposes,”’ approved February twelfth, nineteen hundred and thirteen; and also this Act.12', "In the 1934 United States Code, this definition appeared in title 15, section 12 as: “‘Antitrust laws', as used in sections 12 to 27, inclusive, of this chapter, includes sections 1 to 27, inclusive, of this chapter.” Right there you can see an advantage of codification: the definition in the code is much easier to read than the one in the session law, isn't it?13", '¶12 In 1936, section 1 of the Robinson-Patman Act14 explicitly amended section 2 of the Clayton Act, codified at 15 U.S.C. § 13.15 The other three sections of the Robinson-Patman Act did not explicitly amend the Clayton Act, but they were codified nearby, in new sections 13a, 13b, and 13c. The 1940 United States Code (and later editions) did not change the definition of “antitrust laws.”', "¶13 In the 1950s, some plaintiffs sued for treble damages under section 3 of the Robinson-Patman Act. Would that be allowed? On the one hand, the Robinson-Patman Act was codified within the range for “antitrust laws” listed in 15 U.S.C. § 12. On the other hand, section 3 of the Robinson-Patman Act isn't listed in the definition of “antitrust laws” in the Clayton Act. (It was passed later, so how could it be?) The Supreme Court said that the location of the codified sections did not make them part of the “antitrust laws”: “[T]he 1940 codification was a palpable error. Moreover, this codification seems to us ... to be manifestly inconsistent with the Robinson-Patman Act, and in such circumstances Congress has specifically *549 provided that the underlying statute must prevail.”16 While we think of the United States Code as law, Congress did not vote on and the President did not sign the 1940 United States Code--so it was necessary to go back to the session laws to see what was enacted.17", 'Why Only Prima Facie Evidence?', "¶14 Why is the United States Code only prima facie evidence of the laws? The rule could certainly be otherwise. Congress could have said that the United States Code is the definitive statement of the law, without resort to Statutes at Large, as some states do for their codes.18 Why didn't it? The short answer is: because too many mistakes find their way into a project as big as a code of all the laws of the United States. The Senate insisted that the new code not be binding, just in case."] | [
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25c6fcd5bb7ab90b3cea73c0e6408ab714e606567a37e5949eaf1c687bc0d6e1 | What is cited is irrelevant---the ‘laws’ are exclusively the Statutes at Large. | null | Tobias A. Dorsey 7, Assistant Counsel in the Office of the Legislative Counsel, U.S. House of Representatives, “Some Reflections on Not Reading the Statutes,” 10 Green Bag 2d 283, Spring 2007, WestLaw | we no longer read statutes We read imitation law A text passes Congress is printed presented to the President sent to the Archives and preserved These texts, not any others, are the “Laws of the U S ” published in the Statutes at Large We do not read them anymore do not use them in interpretation we read Code instead a Cliffs Notes guide to real law is all it is supposed to be. just the “ opinion of one House office yet is what we cite and interpret | we no longer read the statutes Frankfurter actually did read actual statutes He did not read the United States Code ; he read the Statutes at Large Frankfurter did not read imitation law; he read real law. Nowadays, we don't. We read imitation law . Consider: A text passes both houses of Congress . It is printed on parchment and presented to the President . If it becomes law, it is sent to the National Archives and preserved there. These texts, not any others, are the “Laws of the U nited S tates ” They are published in a set of books called the United States Statutes at Large . We do not read them anymore . We do not cite them , we do not quote them , and we do not use them in statutory interpretation to read session laws can be tough going consisting as they do of a string of amendments changing three words in subsection 5 of section 2 of article 7 of something already on the books.” Who wants to read that? So we read U nited S tates Code instead The result is a Cliffs Notes guide to the real law . That is all the Code is, and that is all it is supposed to be. The Code is just the “ opinion and judgment ” of one House office it is for the courts to find the meaning of all these statutes The Code is only “ prima facie ” evidence of the law while the Statutes at Large is “ legal ” evidence, and “the very meaning of ‘prima facie’ is that the Code cannot prevail when the two are inconsistent yet nowadays the Code is what we cite to, quote from, and interpret . We no longer read the Statutes at Large. | no longer read the statutes Frankfurter did read actual statutes Code Statutes at Large imitation real Nowadays, we don't. We read imitation law These texts, not any others, are the “Laws of the U S ” Statutes at Large do not read them anymore do not cite them do not quote them do not use them in statutory interpretation tough going string of amendments Who wants to read that? U S Code instead Cliffs Notes guide all the Code is, and that is all it is supposed to be. just opinion and judgment one House office courts prima facie Statutes at Large legal very meaning ‘prima facie’ cannot prevail inconsistent nowadays Code cite quote and interpret We no longer read the Statutes at Large. | ["On March 18, 1947, one of the great justices, Felix Frankfurter, gave one of the great speeches on statutory interpretation. He called it “Some Reflections on the Reading of Statutes.”1 Sixty years later, we consider his speech a classic on how to read the statutes. The irony, however, is that we no longer read the statutes. Not in the sense that Frankfurter did. Frankfurter actually did read the actual statutes. He did not read the United States Code; he read the Statutes at Large. He jauntily described himself as “one for whom the Statutes at Large constitute his staple reading.”2 Frankfurter, in other words, did not read imitation law; he read real law. So did everyone else, in Frankfurter's day.", "Nowadays, we don't. We read imitation law.", 'Consider: A text passes both houses of Congress. It is printed on parchment and presented to the President. If it becomes law, it is sent to the National Archives and preserved there. These texts, not *284 any others, are the “Laws of the United States” that form part of the “supreme Law of the Land.”3 They are session laws, and from the early days we have published them in a set of books called the United States Statutes at Large.', 'We do not read them anymore. We do not cite to them, we do not quote from them, and--the most recent development--we do not use them in statutory interpretation.', 'We do not like to read session laws, of course. It can be tough going. “Many laws on which lawmakers are asked to vote are not in fact readable, consisting as they do of a string of amendments to existing laws, changing three words in subsection 5 of section 2 of article 7 of something already on the books.”4 Who wants to read that?', "So we read the United States Code instead. The Code is--no disrespect intended--a Frankenstein's monster of session laws. The Code is made by taking the session laws, hacking them to pieces, rearranging them, and stitching them back together in a way that gives them false life. Many pieces are altered, and many others are thrown away. The result is something like a Cliffs Notes guide to the real law. That is all the Code is, and that is all it is supposed to be.", "The Code is prepared by the Office of the Law Revision Counsel, which operates under the supervision of the Committee on the Judiciary of the House of Representatives. The head of that office in Frankfurter's day, Dr. Charles Zinn, explained that the Code organizes the session laws “so that you will be able to find them with less trouble than you would have by referring only to the Statutes at Large.”5 The Code is not law; it is a law locator, and a very useful one.", 'The Code is at its most useful when one session law has been amended by another: “[T]o find the present status of that law would *285 be difficult if the search were limited to the Statutes at Large. ... [I]t would be necessary to go through each volume of the Statutes at Large since the original enactment and try to piece it all together.”6 The Code carries out the amendments for us, ministerially (for the most part), giving us a single clean text. The rest of the amendatory statute, with all its clues to meaning-- titles, headings; findings, purposes; structure, arrangement--is thrown away.', "The Code can also be useful when one session law affects another without directly amending it--but only if we recognize what is going on behind the curtain. Consider the statute that charters the Senate's legislative drafting office: section 1303(a) of the Revenue Act of 1918 (40 Stat. 1141). The first sentence provides:", 'That there is hereby created a Legislative Drafting Service under the direction of two draftsmen, one of whom shall be appointed by the President of the Senate, and one by the Speaker of the House of Representatives, without reference to political affiliations and solely on the ground of fitness to perform the duties of the office.', 'Section 602 of the Revenue Act of 1941 (55 Stat. 726) amended this by striking “President of the Senate” and inserting “President pro tempore of the Senate.” So far so good. But then, the second sentence of section 531 of the Legislative Reorganization Act of 1970 (84 Stat. 1204) provides:', '... the provisions of section 1303 of the Revenue Act of 1918 shall have no further applicability of any kind to the Speaker or to any committee, officer, employee, or property of the House of Representatives.', 'How does the Code show this? By rewriting 1303(a) holistically and placing it in two sections, 2 U.S.C. 271 and 272:', '§ 271. Establishment', 'There shall be in the Senate an office to be known as the Office of the Legislative Counsel, and to be under *286 the direction of the Legislative Counsel of the Senate.', '§ 272. Legislative Counsel', 'The Legislative Counsel shall be appointed by the President pro tempore of the Senate, without reference to political affiliations and solely on the ground of fitness to perform the duties of the office.', 'Consider: What is the official name of the office? The Code gives one answer, the statutes another. How many draftsmen are at its head? A Code reader answers “one, of course,” while a session-law reader answers “literally, two ... but one is appointed by the Speaker, and 1303 no longer applies to the Speaker--so effectively, probably only one.”', 'So the single clean text of 271 and 272 tells us all we need to know--for our garden-variety legal hack work. For statutory interpretation it is useless, even misleading.', 'Preparing these single clean Code texts--the faithfully ministerial ones, the aggressively holistic ones, and the many varieties in between--and placing them in the Code is called “classification,” and classification is “a matter of opinion and judgment.”7', 'When we remember this, we are fine. The Code is just the “opinion and judgment” of one House office. Ultimately, as Abner Mikva reminded us, “it is for the courts to find the meaning of all these statutes, all the amendments to those statutes, and all the amendments to the amendments.”8', 'The Code is only “prima facie” evidence of the law,9 while the Statutes at Large is “legal” evidence,10 and “the very meaning of *287 ‘prima facie’ is that the Code cannot prevail over the Statutes at Large when the two are inconsistent.”11 Thus:', 'If you go into court and cite a section of the United States Code, your adversary may bring in a dozen Statutes at Large to show that what is in the Code is not an accurate statement. As a result, he may prevail because the Statutes at Large are legal evidence of the law, whereas the Code is only prima facie evidence.12', 'And yet nowadays the Code is what we cite to, quote from, and interpret. We no longer read the Statutes at Large.'] | [
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37140c83db4ed7b1132c993eb228b6f4d44bd715143a53c654c9887bfc1f86ab | Congress has explicitly declared the two are legally distinct, regardless of appearance | null | Jose M. Almonte-Nunez 99, “Appellant's Opening Brief and Appendix,” United States of America, Plaintiff-Appellee, v. Jose M. Almonte-Nunez, Defendant-Appellant, 1999 WL 34833251, WestLaw | it is indisputable the only way a title can rise to law is to be enacted by Congress Congress deliberately established Code not to be a replicate substitute Code, itself , contemplates recourse to Statutes at Large until duly enacted it can only “look like” law Though the appearance has force of law ...it is the Statutes at Large that provides the law | unenacted titles “establish prima facie the laws of the United States.” Only upon enactment by Congress does a title become law the text thereof shall be legal evidence of laws it is indisputable that the only way that a title can rise to the level of law s is for such title to be enacted by Congress Congress intentionally and deliberately established the procedures and requirements for codification of the laws into the U S Code By the plain language of its Preface, the Code was not intended to be a replicate substitute for the law. The Preface expressly contemplates something more the Office of the Law Revision Counsel develop and keep current an official and positive codification The Code, itself , contemplates recourse to the Statutes at Large until such time as a title is duly enacted until duly enacted by Congress it cannot be used as positive law Until duly enacted by Congress into law , it can only “look like” a law Although Government fails to recognize the difference between unenacted titles of the Code and their actual Statutes at Large , the Supreme Court makes it explicitly clear Though the appearance of a provision has the force of law ...it is the Statutes at Large that provides the ‘ legal evidence of law To pursue the path that Congress did not mean what it said leads into lawless territory enactment is an absolute necessity for the creation of a valid law If a title has not been enacted by Congress, it is merely prima facie evidence of the laws contained in it. | unenacted prima facie Only enactment by Congress become law legal laws indisputable only way rise law enacted Congress intentionally deliberately codification U S Code Code not a replicate substitute expressly contemplates more Office of the Law Revision Counsel official positive codification Code, itself recourse Statutes at Large duly enacted duly enacted Congress positive law duly enacted into law only “look like” a law Government recognize the difference actual Statutes at Large Supreme Court explicitly clear appearance has the force of law Statutes at Large legal evidence of law lawless territory enactment absolute necessity merely prima facie evidence | ['Nunez deems it critical to this particular analysis that the distinction be made among unenacted titles, enacted titles, and the actual Statutes at Large contained in them. To that end, it is instructive and helpful to set forth 1 U.S.C. § 204 (a) in its entirety.', '(a) United States Code.---The matter set forth in the edition of the Code of Laws of the United States current at any time shall, together with the then current supplement, if any, establish prima facie the laws of the United States, general and permanent in their nature, in force on the day preceding the commencement of the session following the last session the legislation of which is included: Provided, however, That whenever titles of such Code shall have been enacted into positive law the text thereof shall be legal evidence of the laws therein contained, in all the courts of the United States, the several States, and the Territories and insular possessions of the United States.', 'By the express language of the Code set forth above, unenacted titles “establish prima facie the laws of the United States.” Only upon enactment by Congress does a title become “positive law the text thereof shall be legal evidence of laws...in all the courts of the United States, the several States...” 1 U.S.C. § 204. From the foregoing, it is indisputable that the only way that a title can rise to the level of legal evidence of the laws contained in it, is for such title to be enacted into positive law by Congress. The clear language of the Code says so.', "Title 21 is intended to codify P.L. 91-513, Title II, Sec. 101 et. seq. by the 91st Congress, 2nd session on October 27, 1970, 84 stat. 1242, popularly known as the “Controlled Substances Act of 1970.” In order to properly utilize and understand the Code, one merely has to read the Code. It is a guide to itself. And, perhaps, the first critical guide is the Code's Preface written by then Chairman Roy G. Fitzgerald, dated June 30, 1926, which states in relevant part:", 'It is the ambition of the Committee on the Revision of the Laws of the House of Representatives gradually to perfect the Code by correcting errors, eliminating obsolete matter, and restating the law with logical completeness and with precision, brevity, and uniformity of expression. Title 1, U.S.C. 1982 ed., p. XII (Preface). (emphasis added).', "Congress intentionally and deliberately established the procedures and requirements for codification of the laws into the United States Code. Congress, being essentially a lawyers' body, must be presumed to know the law, and the language which it uses. By the plain language of its Preface, the Code was not intended to be an instantaneous and replicate substitute for the law. The Preface expressly contemplates something more than immediate by the words “gradually to perfect the Code by correcting errors, eliminating obsolete matter, and restating the law.”", 'To achieve the overall purpose of the Code, Congress established the Office of the Law Revision Counsel of the House of Representatives. 2 U.S.C. § 285. “The principal purpose of the Office shall be to develop and keep current an official and positive codification of the laws of the United States.” 2 U.S.C. § 285a.', 'The titles of the Code are numbered consecutively, one through fifty. The fifty titles are broken down into only two categories, enacted titles and unenacted titles. [1 U. S.C. § 204(a)]. At the end of 1 U.S.C. § 204, 1982 ed., is the most current list of titles which have been enacted into positive law. The current supplement to Title 1, 1982 ed., contains no other titles which have been enacted into positive law. Only 23 out of the 50 titles have now been enacted into positive law. The 23 titles listed are Titles 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14, 17, 18, 23, 28, 31, 32, 55, 37, 38, 39, 44, 46, and 49. As clearly evidenced by the Code, Title 21 has never been enacted into positive law, and is still not enacted into positive law by Congress.', 'Title enactment is not a mere technicality. Before a title can be used as positive law, it must be enacted, “Because many of the general and permanent laws that are required to be incorporated in the Code are inconsistent, redundant, and obsolete.” 1 U.S.C., 1982 ed., p. IX. (emphasis added).', 'The Code, itself, contemplates recourse to the Statutes at Large until such time as a title is duly enacted. When the Office of the Law Revision Counsel has completed revising and codifying “for enactment into positive law, each Title of the code”, “all the titles of the titles of the Code will be legal evidence...and recourse to the...Statutes at Large... will no longer be necessary.” Id. (emphasis added).', "The cautionary language in the Code's Preface is also substantially set forth in 2 U.S.C., 1982 ed., § 285b(1), which states:", '(1) To prepare, and submit to the Committee on the Judiciary one title at a time, a complete compilation, restatement, and revision of the general and permanent laws of the United States which conforms to the understood policy, intent, and purpose of the Congress in the original enactments, with such amendments and corrections as will remove ambiguities, contradictions, and other imperfections both of substance and of form, separately stated, with a view to the enactment of each title as positive law. (emphasis added).', 'The fact that Title 21 is not yet an Act of Congress is not a disputable fact. The fact that, until Title 21 is duly enacted by Congress, it cannot be used as positive law, is also not a disputable fact. Until Title 21 is duly enacted by Congress into positive law, it can only “look like” a law. Only the Office of the Law Revision Counsel is vested with the power and authority to submit the titles of the Code (one title at a time) to the Committee on the Judiciary for enactment, after all “ambiguities, contradictions, and other imperfections” are removed.', 'Although the Government fails to recognize the difference between unenacted titles of the Code and their actual Statutes at Large, the Supreme Court makes it explicitly clear. “Though the appearance of a provision has the force of law...it is the Statutes at Large that provides the ‘legal evidence of law.’ ” U.S. Nat. Bank of Ore. v. Ins. Agents, 508 U.S. 439, 124 L.Ed. 2d 402, 414 (1993). The fact that Title 21 has never been enacted by Congress into positive law cannot by any means be deemed a mere technicality.', 'Congress either meant what it said in §204(a), or it did not. To pursue the path that Congress did not mean what it said leads almost instantly into lawless and unconstitutional territory. Congressional enactment is an absolute necessity for the creation of a valid law. Indeed, § 204(a) embodies the congressional enactment requirements of Art.1, §7. The plain language of §204(a) is clear. If a title has not been enacted by Congress, it is merely prima facie evidence of the laws contained in it.'] | [
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063fd3a195d4982f88d0948b7856a2c0a07c656f9fe36ea5562ec81816df6166 | Title 15 specifically---which is where antitrust is codified---is NOT positive law. | null | Richard J. McKinney 17, Assistant Law Librarian, Federal Reserve Board, “United States Code: List of Positive Law Titles With Enacting Cites and Location to Revision Notes,” Legislative Research Special Interest Section of the Law Librarians' Society of Washington, D.C., September 2017, | Positive law titles are legal ev of law and need no authoritative citation Other titles are " prima facie " ev of law but are rebuttable by production of acts of Congress at variance Title 15 Not enacted into positive law. | Positive law titles of the U S Code , indicated by an asterisk, are legal ev idence of the law and need no further authoritative citation as prior acts concerning those titles have been repealed . Other titles to the U.S. Code are " prima facie " ev idence of the law and are presumed to be the law, but are rebuttable by production of prior unrepealed acts of Congress at variance with Code. About half the titles of the Code have been revised, codified and enacted into positive law Title 15 Commerce and Trade. Not revised, codified and enacted into positive law. | titles U S Code legal ev of law no further authoritative citation prior repealed Other prima facie ev presumed rebuttable prior unrepealed acts of Congress variance Title 15 Commerce and Trade. Not revised, codified and enacted into positive law. | ['Positive law titles of the United States Code, indicated by an asterisk, are legal evidence of the law and need no further authoritative citation as prior acts concerning those titles have been repealed. Other titles to the U.S. Code are "prima facie" evidence of the law (1 USC §204), and are presumed to be the law, but are rebuttable by production of prior unrepealed acts of Congress at variance with the Code. About half the titles of the Code have been revised, codified and enacted into positive law. The enacting terms used in this list under each positive law title are taken from the enacting clauses themselves. Historical and revision notes which explain derivations to each revised section, as well as editorial and non-substantive changes to them, are frequently set out after each section of a positive law title and are taken from committee reports (usually from the House Judiciary Committee) which accompany the legislation. The committee report number and where else it can be found is also set out.', 'Titles 1-50 The Code of the Laws of the United States of America', 'Enacted into prima facie law by act of June 30, 1926, ch. 712, 44 Stat. 1, pt. 1. Covers all general and permanent laws in force as of December 7, 1925. No revision notes; see H. Rept. 69-900 and S. Rept. 69-832 located at v. 8533 and v. 8526 of the U.S. Congressional Serial Set. See related reports H. Rept. 65-916 (in v. 7454), H. Rept. 66-781 (in v. 7653), H. Rept. 67-68 (in v. 7920), H. Rept. 68-2 (in v. 8226), S. Rept. 68-722 (in v. 8221), H. Rept. 68-1573 (in v. 8391), H. Rept. 70-1706 (v. 8838)', '* Title 1 General Provisions.', '"Codified and enacted into positive law" by act of July 30, 1947, ch. 388, §1 Stat. 633. No revision notes after each section. See brief explanation in H. Rept. 80-251 at 1947 U.S. Code Cong. Serv., p. 1511 and in v. 11119 of the U.S. Cong. Serial Set.', 'Title 2 The Congress. ', 'Not revised, codified and enacted into positive law. However, H.R. 7088, a bill to do so was introduced in the House in 1942 (see 88 Cong. Rec. 4219). Also, a classification reorganization, effective February 1, 2014, was implemented by the LRC.', '* Title 3 The President.', '"Codified and enacted into positive law" by act of June 25, 1948, ch. 644, 62 Stat. 672. No revision notes after each section. See brief explanation in S. Rept. 80-1623 at 1948 U.S. Code Cong. Serv., p. 2027 and in v. 11208 of the U.S. Cong. Serial Set.', '* Title 4 Flag and Seal, Seat of Government, and the States.', '"Codified and enacted into positive law" by act of July 30, 1947, ch. 389, 61 Stat. 641. No revision notes after each section. See brief explanation in H. Rept. 80-252 at 1947 U.S. Code Cong. Serv., p. 1512 and in v. 11119 of the U.S. Cong. Serial Set.', '* Title 5 Government Organization and Employees; and Appendix.', '"Revised, codified, and enacted" by Pub. L. 89-554, §1, Sept. 6, 1966, 80 Stat. 378. Historical and Revision notes follow each section and are largely taken from H. Rept. 89-901 located at v. 12667, pt. 9 of the U.S. Cong. Serial Set. The Appendix provisions to title 5 are not enacted as positive law and include the Federal Advisory Committee Act, the Inspector General Act, the Ethics in Government Act, and Reorganization Plans.', 'Title 6 Homeland Security. (formerly Surety Bonds, which was repealed; see Title 31)', 'Not revised, codified and enacted into positive law.', 'Title 7 Agriculture.', 'Not revised, codified and enacted into positive law.', 'Title 8 Aliens and Nationality.', 'Not revised, codified and enacted into positive law.', '* Title 9 Arbitration.', '"Codified and enacted into positive law" by act of July 30, 1947, ch. 392, 61 Stat. 669. No revision notes after each section. See brief explanation in H. Rept. 80-255 at 1947 U.S. Code Cong. Serv., p. 1515 and in v. 11119 of the U.S. Cong. Serial Set.', '* Title 10 Armed Forces; and Appendix.', '"Revised, codified, and enacted" by act of Aug.10, 1956, ch. 1041, §1, 70A Stat. 1. Historical and revision notes follow each section and are taken from H. Rept. 84-970 and S. Rept. 84-2484 located (in part) at 1956 U.S.C.C.A.N. p. 4613 and p. 4632 and also located (in full) at v. 11827 and v. 11896 of the U.S. Congressional Serial Set. The Appendix consists of the rules of practice and procedure of the United States Court of Appeals for the Armed Forces and that of the Court of Criminal Appeals.', '* Title 11 Bankruptcy; and Appendix.', '"Codified and enacted" by Pub. L. 95-598, §101, Nov. 6, 1978, 92 Stat. 2549. Historical and revision notes follow each section taken from S. Rept. No. 95-989 and H. Rept. 95-595, located at 1978 U.S.C.C.A.N. p. 5787 and 5963 and at v. 13197 pt. 8 and v. 13175 pt. 9 of the U.S. Congressional Serial Set. Appendix includes Federal rules of bankruptcy procedure and official bankruptcy forms.', 'Title 12 Banks and Banking.', 'Not revised, codified and enacted into positive law.', '* Title 13 Census.', '"Revised, codified, and enacted" by act of Aug. 31, 1954, ch. 1158, 68 Stat. 1012. Historical and revision notes follow each section taken from S. Rept. 83-2497 located at 1954 U.S.C.C.A.N. p. 3589 and v. 11732 of the U.S. Cong. Serial Set.', '* Title 14 Coast Guard.', '"Revised, codified, and enacted" by act of Aug. 4, 1949, ch. 393, §1, 63 Stat. 495. Historical and revision notes follow each section taken from S. Rept. 81-656 and H. Rept. 81-557, located at 1949 U.S.C.C.S. p. 1652 and p. 1667 and at v. 11293 and v. 11298 of the U.S. Cong. Serial Set.', 'Title 15 Commerce and Trade.', 'Not revised, codified and enacted into positive law.'] | [
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24e31334e8db26ab1f38f5dd7d02f61df6f5b4105f54346cebe3d084f2e1dad9 | Advanced financial robo-advisors are coming but will come into conflict with existing frameworks for fiduciary duties. | null | Alessio Azzutti et al. 21, Alessio Azzutti is PhD Candidate in Law and Research Associate at the Institute of Law & Economics, University of Hamburg; Wolf-Georg Ringe is Professor of Law and Finance and Director of the Institute of Law & Economics, University of Hamburg, and Visiting Professor at the University of Oxford; H. Siegfried Stiehl is Senior Professor at the Department of Informatics, University of Hamburg, “Machine Learning, Market Manipulation, and Collusion on Capital Markets: Why the ‘Black Box’ Matters,” University of Pennsylvania Journal of International Law, vol. 43, no. 1, 2022/2021, pp. 79–136 | trading ML can augment human price prediction portfolio optimization , and financial decision-making increasingly capable agents open truly autonomous trading such traders risk market integrity AI deep learning are accompanied by the "black box." where dev s and users may not understand algo s output central to existing legal systems' ability to cope Real markets can be more complex than sim s making it hard to safely develop expect autonomous AI traders Once a reality issues will come to the fore the most innovative are likely protected by i p without any scrutiny leading to uncertainties and novel risks the worst-case scenario | In financial trading ML can augment human capabilities in price prediction , dynamic portfolio optimization , and other financial decision-making tasks. However, thanks to constant progress in ML the prospect of increasingly capable and autonomous agents to delegate operational tasks and even decision-making is now beyond mere imagination thus open ing the possibility for approximating truly autonomous trading agents Given these spectacular developments such autonomous algorithmic traders may involve significant risk s to market integrity thanks to self-learning capabilities Specifically market manipulation and tacit collusion AI, and ML allow ATSs with increased autonomy to be established While having the capacity to revolutionize trading delegating financial decision-making to autonomous black box trading agents can also expose markets to new risk much of the hype surrounding AI has been about deep learning based on neural networks besides a greater propensity towards "overfitting," these methods are accompanied by the problem of the "black box." where both dev eloper s and users may not understand and explain how algo rithm s generated a particular output The "black box" problem is often framed in terms of issues of Al "transparency," "explainability," and "trustworthiness," especially for ML-based decision-making in critical domains related to human life which underpins the problem of "auditability" and "accountability" in cases of wrongdoing the "black box" problem is central to our assessment of existing legal systems' ability to effectively cope with circumstances of market abuse by autonomous Al traders The combination of "deep" and "reinforcement learning" techniques allows the creation of so-called "deep reinforcement learning" methods By combining these two paradigms algorithms are able to take in very large datasets , find latent correlations and learn actions Autonomous agents based on DRL have achieved tremendous success Given all this progress in theories it is worth emphasizing that algorithmic trading agents are called upon to operate within a complex dynamic market environment . Real markets can be substantially different and more complex than in-lab sim ulation environment s , making it hard to effectively and safely develop autonomous agents for real-life applications there are also fundamental challenges in assessing the quality of research applied to financial trading. While ML research is expanding , computational finance literature has so far failed to provide a convincing scientific framework or methodology to analyze different ML methods Unlike other fields no benchmark exists to assess and compare competing algorithms for financial trading proprietary details further complicate or prohibit comparison Despite these difficulties it is realistic to expect autonomous AI traders to become a reality on trading floors Once they become a reality the policy issues above will come to the fore acknowledging that the most innovative research advancements are likely to emerge within investment firms' proprietary projects protected by i p is not reassuring given that academic research is accessible but still limited there are significant risks that the tech may evolve without any normative considerations or scrutiny . While Al is undoubtedly a game-changer both regulators and market participants could become concerned about specific methods leading to uncertainties and novel risks this is the first time in history we are delegating cognitive agency to algorithms to be utilized in critical domains despite knowing that, in the worst-case scenario , we could be incapable of controlling their functioning With the rise of algo trading , innovative manipulative schemes inevitably arise , and forms have emerged already With the prospect of fully autonomous traders proliferating soon , new and unprecedented algorithmic crime scenarios arise | augment price prediction , dynamic portfolio optimization other progress ML capable autonomous delegate decision-making beyond mere imagination open truly autonomous trading agents spectacular developments risk market integrity manipulation collusion increased autonomy revolutionize trading also new risk deep learning neural networks "overfitting," "black box." dev s users not understand explain how algo s generated a particular output "auditability" "accountability" wrongdoing central existing legal systems' ability effectively cope with circumstances of market abuse by autonomous Al traders "deep" "reinforcement learning" techniques "deep reinforcement learning" combining very large datasets latent correlations learn actions tremendous success progress theories complex dynamic market environment Real substantially different more complex in-lab sim s hard develop quality research expanding so far failed scientific framework methodology benchmark exists competing algorithms proprietary details complicate prohibit autonomous AI traders reality on trading floors Once come to the fore innovative investment firms' proprietary projects i p not reassuring limited significant risks tech without any normative considerations scrutiny game-changer concerned specific methods uncertainties novel risks first time in history algorithms critical domains knowing worst-case scenario be incapable of controlling their functioning algo trading manipulative schemes inevitably arise forms emerged already proliferating soon new unprecedented algorithmic crime scenarios | ['This Article offers a novel perspective on the implications of increasingly autonomous and "black box" algorithms, within the ramification of algorithmic trading, for the integrity of capital markets. Artificial intelligence (AI) and particularly its subfield of machine learning (ML) methods have gained immense popularity among the great public and achieved tremendous success in many real-life applications by leading to vast efficiency gains. In the financial trading domain, ML can augment human capabilities in price prediction, dynamic portfolio optimization, and other financial decision-making tasks. However, thanks to constant progress in the ML technology, the prospect of increasingly capable and autonomous agents to delegate operational tasks and even decision-making is now beyond mere imagination, thus opening up the possibility for approximating (truly) autonomous trading agents anytime soon.', 'Given these spectacular developments, this Article argues that such autonomous algorithmic traders may involve significant risks to market integrity, independent from their human experts, thanks to self-learning capabilities offered by state-of-the-art and innovative ML methods. Using the proprietary trading industry as a case study, we explore emerging threats to the application of established market abuse laws in the event of algorithmic market abuse, by taking an interdisciplinary stance between financial regulation, law and economics, and computational finance. Specifically, our analysis focuses on two emerging market abuse risks by autonomous algorithms: market manipulation and "tacit" collusion. We explore their likelihood to arise in global capital markets and evaluate related social harm as forms of market failures.', 'With these new risks in mind, this Article questions the adequacy of existing regulatory frameworks and enforcement mechanisms, as well as current legal rules on the governance of algorithmic trading, to cope with increasingly autonomous and ubiquitous algorithmic trading systems. We demonstrate how the "black box" nature of specific ML-powered algorithmic trading strategies can subvert existing market abuse laws, which are based upon traditional liability concepts and tests (such as "intent" and "causation"). We conclude by addressing the shortcomings of the present legal framework and develop a number of guiding principles to assist legal and policy reform in the spirit of promoting and safeguarding market integrity and safety.', 'I. INTRODUCTION', 'Thanks to artificial intelligence (AI)\'s continuous progress, the sub-field of machine learning (ML) today enables the creation of increasingly "autonomous Al agents" 1 in many domains. In finance, algorithmic trading systems (ATSs) have already reached a level of enormous technological sophistication and a high degree of system automation. 2 AI, and ML methods in particular, allow for ATSs with increased autonomy to be established. 3 While having the capacity to revolutionize trading as we know it, delegating financial decision-making to increasingly autonomous and "black box" AI trading agents can also expose markets to new sources of risk.4', 'Specifically, this Article explores emerging threats to the safe application of established legal concepts of liability for market abuse in dealing with misconducts by increasingly autonomous Al trading agents, using the proprietary trading industry as a case study. As we will see, autonomous Al trading could achieve unprecedented versatility and develop unexpected capabilities beyond what human experts can reasonably expect. Indeed, thanks to selflearning, Al traders could behave in unpredictable ways, for both good and evil. As discussed below, these risks include new forms of market manipulation and algorithmic "tacit" collusion. 5 Notably, several ethical and legal questions arise when dealing with issues of liability for algorithms\' misbehavior. 6 Our findings suggest that AI\'s misconduct can ultimately subvert existing prohibitions of market abuse. This study contributes to enhancing our understanding of the risks associated with liability for autonomous Al decision-making. It thus enriches the scientific debate on Al and finance, to ultimately inform global regulators when thinking about innovative regulatory solutions, taking into account the technology\'s specificities. There is indeed a need for a regulatory paradigm shift favoring increased adaptability vis-a-vis the challenges posed by a continually evolving technological market ecosystem,7 to effectively safeguard capital markets\' integrity and global financial stability.', 'We proceed as follows. Section II introduces the concept of autonomous "Al traders" and investigates the technological potential of their emergence. Subsequently, Section III shows that such self-learning agents may also learn how to game the system and engage in manipulative and collusive practices. Section IV illustrates how the present legal framework falls short of providing a sound response to algorithmic market manipulation and develops a number of guiding principles for reform. Section V concludes.', 'II. AUTONOMOUS "AI TRADERS": THE (PRESENT AND) FUTURE OF ML-POWERED ALGORITHMIC TRADING', 'When exploring the implications of Al trading, it is first helpful to review the current state of modern Al applications in the financial trading domain. In this Section, we will show that recent progress in computational finance indeed brings us closer to the development of truly autonomous algorithmic agents, based on Al, that can act independently on the capital market and learn from the outcomes of their own decisions, when given a pre-defined objective. This prepares the ground for Section III, which addresses the role of Al in facilitating new forms of algorithmic market abuse, irrespective of any direct human involvement in gaming market rules.', 'When considering both determinants and path-dependencies of the "algorithmic revolution" that, only in the last few decades, has shaped global capital markets\' architecture and functioning,8 there are good reasons to believe that algorithms will continue to gain an increasingly pervasive role. Indeed, the financial industry is currently undergoing profound digital transformation underpinned by AI.9 In global finance, algorithms contribute to conducting, managing, and monitoring trading activities. Sometimes, they also cause disruptions to the safe and orderly functioning of markets.10 Nevertheless, financial technology innovation - such as algorithmic trading-has been generally supported by regulation to foster competition among market participants on different levels, with the objective of supporting the development of more efficient and liquid markets."', 'The proliferation of markets and financial assets, as well as the acceleration of trading speed, are all fundamental factors contributing to generating a massive amount of granular and highfrequency data. Notably, to find profitable investment opportunities, Al trading can exploit massive data that are no more intelligible for the human mind.12 Useful data for Al today come in very different forms and levels of quality (beyond traditional financial data, such as fundamental data or market data and their derivatives), with "alternative data" 13 taking on growing importance. 14 Originally, algorithmic trading was based on deterministic "rule-based" systems, which are notoriously constrained by human experts\' knowledge and assumptions, both tacit and explicit, about specific domains. 15 Thanks to simultaneous progress made in high-performance computing and communication (e.g., edge/cloud computing) and Big Data analytics, ML methods today allow for trading algorithms to be far more flexible to changing market conditions, under different levels of autonomy.16 ML and Big Data are together the fundamental ingredients of most innovative and cutting-edge algorithmic trading strategies. 17 However, the prospect of fully autonomous Al agents is still assumed today to be beyond imagination.', 'a. Towards Autonomous Trading Agents', 'ML can assist investment firms in both pattern recognition and financial decision-making tasks. According to key differences in the fields of algorithms learning from data, which also relates to the varying degree of human involvement, three basic ML paradigms exist. First, in "supervised learning" (SL) methods, which can be used for regression and classification purposes, users need to train their algorithms with pre-labeled empirical data, meaning that the correct outputs for all trading data are known in advance. Once a general rule has been learned, it has to be carefully validated and tested before it is applied to, as an example, predictive trading tasks.18 For instance, under SL, algorithms can use technical market indicators or other useful data to predict the next day\'s winning and losing stocks from past observations yielded from empirical data. 19 Secondly, in "unsupervised learning" (UL), which is instead used for clustering and factor analyses, algorithms work without any prelabeled data provided by a human expert.20 Under this ML method, algorithms autonomously infer patterns (e.g., "regularity") in the data with similar distinctive features. 21 An ATS can jointly integrate both SL and UL to solve different trading tasks. For instance, UL algorithms can preliminarily perform a cluster analysis to extract features from data to identify trading opportunities. The result is then passed, as input data, to the supervised learning component for further computational steps, like stock price prediction. 22 Thereafter, the Al system is ready to execute trading. Thus, both ML methods can assist investment firms in automating trading in financial instruments. However, neither yet achieves autonomy in ATSs, since some human assistance is still usually required to face evolving market conditions, such as tail risk and unobserved market events. 23 In fact, both methods are simply constrained by the empirical nature of data. In contrast, although humans can infer actions from their past experiences, they are known to also rely on, for instance, hardly explicable intuition and gut feeling for decisionmaking under conditions of uncertainty. 24', 'Finally, and most importantly, a third ML paradigm under the name of "reinforcement learning" (RL) has emerged to overcome some of these limitations. 25 RL is the most advanced of the ML paradigms in the context of our analysis below, as it lies at the foundation of autonomous (software) agents. This very heterogenic ML category encompasses computational approaches that allow algorithms to learn, through a "trial-and-error" process, within an uncertain and dynamic environment. In doing so, RL agents are called to take action with the ultimate goal to realize a pre-defined objective or optimize a cost or utility function pursuant to that objective. In addition, as is the case in a real market context, RL agents need to take into account the implications of their own behaviors. In other words, they are goal-oriented and face a constant trade-off between "exploration" and "exploitation" in the space and/or time of a particular domain. Thus, RL agents must "exploit" actions that were learned in the past to achieve the best rewards. At the same time, exploiting implies the ability to "explore" in advance the best policies among all options, both known and unknown, in order to make better decisions in the future.26 In a financial trading context, RL allows the "forecasting" and "portfolio construction" tasks to be integrated, thus aligning the ML problem with the investors\' ultimate goal. 27 In fact, unlike (un)supervised methods, in which ML is used for generalization purposes, RL agents aim to learn best policy actions that maximize the likelihood of a long-term goal being achieved while also taking into account real markets\' constraints, such as liquidity and transaction costs. 28 In a manner of speaking, RL attempts to resemble how human traders traditionally act on financial markets and learn from their own trading experiences and strategies to pursue their profit-maximizing objectives. The computational finance literature has developed several RL applications for trading, categorized according to the exact optimizing method employed in the self-learning process. 29 Not surprisingly, therefore, RL has already had an enormous impact on optimizing financial trading tasks, with promising results in high-frequency trading (HFT).30', 'Lately, much of the hype surrounding AI has been about "deep learning" methods, a more recent sub-field in ML.31 Deep learning is based on "artificial neural networks" (ANNs) -i.e., mathematical models that by and large resemble the neuronal structure and functioning of the human cortex-which aim to best approximate input data by learning on multiple abstraction levels (cf. "convolutional neural network" methods). 32 ANNs can be used in combination with SL and RL methods and are proposed to achieve greater accuracy and predictive power in our application domain,33 albeit like other ML methods they can nevertheless be exposed to human bias. 34 However, there can be other drawbacks, since, besides a greater propensity towards "overfitting," 35 these ML methods are accompanied by the so-called problem of the "black box."36 The "black box" problem is where both the developers and users of Al may not fully understand and explain why and how their algorithms have generated a particular output given specific data input.37 The "black box" problem is often framed in terms of issues of Al "transparency," "explainability," and "trustworthiness," especially for ML-based decision-making in critical domains related to human life,38 which underpins the problem of "auditability" and "accountability" in cases of Al wrongdoing. 39 As we will see in Section IV, the "black box" problem is central to our assessment of existing legal systems\' ability to effectively cope with circumstances of market abuse by autonomous Al traders.', 'The combination of "deep" and "reinforcement learning" techniques allows for the creation of so-called "deep reinforcement learning" (DRL) methods. By combining the upsides of these two ML paradigms, DRL algorithms are able to take in very large datasets, find latent correlations thanks to deep learning, and learn to decide which actions to perform in order to optimize a function via RL in pursuit of a pre-defined objective. 40 Autonomous agents based on DRL have achieved tremendous success by showing superior-to-human capabilities in many real-life settings, including video 41 and board games,42 among others.43 With that in mind, DRL methods could arguably be used to achieve autonomous Al trading agents, eventually implying the exclusion of human control as the last resort. Within the scientific community, a growing amount of published work has been applying DRL agents to financial trading problems. 44 Under DRL, for instance, Al traders can, first, gain datadriven insights about a complex and dynamic trading environment via DL and, second, use RL to flexibly learn optimal trading strategies solely through their trading activities on markets, which provide constant feedback on their performance. 45 But the possibilities do not end here: in principle, several ML components can be integrated into DRL-based ensemble strategies to achieve different levels of system sophistication and autonomy.46 Various Al agents can be combined in multi-agent systems to benefit from their different skill specializations, 47 or in ensemble strategies where they need to act jointly to achieve best performance. 48 It follows that current research in computational finance provides initial evidence about DRL methods as main ML frameworks for the successful implementation of increasingly capable and autonomous Al trading agents.', 'b. Ongoing Progress and Challenges', 'Given all this progress made in theories, methods, and technologies, it is worth emphasizing that algorithmic trading agents are called upon to operate within a complex and dynamic market environment. Real markets can be substantially different and more complex than in-lab simulation environments, making it hard to effectively and safely develop autonomous Al agents for real-life applications. In fact, the successful implementation of Al agents via RL methods requires taking into account several limitations, among which the "curse of dimensionality" 49 is only one facet.50 More generally, there are also fundamental challenges in assessing the quality of ML research applied to financial trading. While ML research is successfully expanding, computational finance literature has so far failed to provide a convincing scientific framework or even methodology to analyze different ML methods (i.e., theoretical limits, accuracy, and experimental success and failure).51 Unlike other Al fields of application, no clear benchmark exists yet to assess and compare competing ML algorithms for financial trading.52 Apart from this, proprietary details regarding the nature and role of the utilized empirical data as well as information about the learning process itself (or "hyper parameters" in general) further complicate or even prohibit the comparison of different ML research findings,53 thus rendering the replication of ML results impossible.', "Moreover, Al traders' autonomy and complexity also exacerbate the agency problem in algorithmic trading. Financial laws usually require trading algorithms to produce predictable, controllable, and explainable trading behavior, not least to avoid disrupting financial markets' orderly functioning.54 Accordingly, users of Al should be able to explain how Al systems reach their optimized trading strategies to comply with financial law and regulation, including taking accountability for affecting clients, consumers, or the public.", "Despite all these difficulties, we believe that it is realistic to expect autonomous AI traders to become a reality on trading floors one day. Once they become a reality, a number of the policy issues mentioned above will come to the fore. To start, acknowledging that the most innovative ML research advancements are likely to emerge within investment firms' proprietary projects, protected by intellectual property rights, is certainly not reassuring from a policy perspective. Indeed, and given that academic research is openly accessible but still limited in scope, there are significant risks that the Al technology in financial trading may evolve without any sound normative considerations or even academic and public scrutiny. While Al is undoubtedly proposed as a game-changer for trading on capital markets, both regulators and market participants could become concerned about specific ML methods and applications leading to greater uncertainties and novel risks. Indeed, this is the first time in human history that we are delegating cognitive agency to algorithms to be utilized in critical domains despite knowing that, in the worst-case scenario, we could become incapable of controlling their functioning.", 'III. ALGORITHMIC MARKET ABUSE BY AUTONOMOUS AI TRADERS', 'We have seen above that the technological potential for the emergence of truly autonomous agents that trade on capital markets is realistic. Furthermore, we have shown that the most advanced of these trading machines will be able to learn and refine a particular investment strategy independently, given a pre-defined goal (most likely, profit maximization). This seemingly positive development has a dark side, however, where investment decisions by independent algorithms could be used for trading strategies that undermine the laws of capital markets-and would be applied to maximize profit from manipulative practices or collusion.', "With the rise of algorithmic trading, innovative manipulative schemes inevitably arise, and forms of algorithmic manipulation have indeed emerged already. 55 With the prospect of fully autonomous Al traders proliferating global capital markets sometime soon, new and unprecedented algorithmic crime scenarios can also arise. Precisely with these risks in mind, this Section deals with new forms of market manipulation by autonomous Al traders, including new abusive cartel-like scenarios, 56 their likelihood according to both markets' microstructure and Al technical limitations, and related social harm as a consequence of market failures. 57"] | [
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"have",
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77aeed7e9282ce1f9bcf63d9f84313b6bc6f4f5baff6b8a6338529775dd70820 | Specifically, lack of a legal entity suitable for liability attribution short-circuits enforcement of fiduciary obligations. | null | Alessio Azzutti et al. 21, Alessio Azzutti is PhD Candidate in Law and Research Associate at the Institute of Law & Economics, University of Hamburg; Wolf-Georg Ringe is Professor of Law and Finance and Director of the Institute of Law & Economics, University of Hamburg, and Visiting Professor at the University of Oxford; H. Siegfried Stiehl is Senior Professor at the Department of Informatics, University of Hamburg, “Machine Learning, Market Manipulation, and Collusion on Capital Markets: Why the ‘Black Box’ Matters,” University of Pennsylvania Journal of International Law, vol. 43, no. 1, 2022/2021, pp. 79–136 | even advanced systems rely on outdated assumptions that address human s for their algorithms such frameworks fail to regulate algo market behavior black boxes short-circuit detection , liability and enforcement cause unforeseeable severe disruptions like flash crash Enforcement can consume considerable resources and be limited in scope by skills and tech which lag players fundamental legal concepts cease to function most require scienter to legal persons or a natural person Unfortunately, jurisdictions do not recognize alg s as a legal personality authorities will face difficulties prosecuting an org by traditional tests | The emergence of auto nomous trading algorithms and their foray into abusive market practices triggers questions with the regulatory response when constraining instances of algorithmic market abuse , even the most advanced legal systems rely on outdated normative assumptions that ultimately address human behavior s and hold them accountable for their algorithms As such , legal frameworks are at increasing risk of fail ing to regulate algo rithms' market behavior comprehensively increasingly capable and autonomous Al traders can expose markets to new risks . Whenever abuse involves autonomous traders operating as " black boxes " severe short-circuit s in market abuse rules can arise Al may subvert established market conduct rules providing for detection , liability attribution, and enforcement autonomous Al traders can bypass traditional liability rules and concepts e.g., "intent," "causation," and "negligence" the "black box" problem hinders enforcement Enforcement authorities face increasing operational challenges to constantly monitor trading activities and effectively detect abuse . This is especially the case for cross-asset and cross-market strategies Notwithstanding these difficulties the practice of algorithmic agency generally raises fundamental legal questions about attribution . Depending on the actual autonomy, algorithms may cause unforeseeable and severe disruptions Algorithmic market disruptions can be an unintended consequence of using algorithms to automate tasks. Under this first and very basic scenario fall cases like 2012 flash crash When disruptions are unintended authorities have access to the appropriate concepts and tools Market disruptions can also result from algorithms that are consciously crafted and employed by humans for unlawful purposes From an enforcement perspective cases under this category are less easy Enforcement action can consume considerable resources and be limited in scope by authorities' skills and tech which lag major players to punish unlawful market behavior, prosecutors and plaintiffs alike must successfully prove convincing and compelling evidence of the scienter of humans Market abuse by autonomous traders represents the most challenging scenario autonomous traders can pave the way for new algorithmic market abuse , including old and new manipulation techniques and risks of "tacit" collusion. These forms are the trickiest for enforcement Unlike deterministic systems autonomous traders can discover , by self-learning trading strategies beyond what was originally intended and reasonably foreseeable While we would expect both human creators and users to be aware of the limits of their complex tools or the quality of the data they could be nevertheless unable to fully understand or justify why and how their algorithms have reached a specific decision fundamental legal concepts for liability can cease to function in a safe and proper manner To punish market abuse, most legal systems require explicitly -that enforcement authorities prove , with documented evidence , the manipulator's or conspirator's scienter However, the law attributes liability to individuals or legal persons for acts or omissions committed by a natural person This applies to both market abuse and antitrust one may wonder whether it would be reasonable to attribute liability to Al itself Unfortunately, jurisdictions at present do not recognize alg orithm s as a separate legal personality given AI's increasingly autonomous nature, should the law hold AI liable itself? As real Al applications for financial trading are still somewhat hybrid following the "human-in-theloop" paradigm, the key question is where to draw the line . Sadly enforcement authorities will face increasing difficulties in prosecuting cases of market abuse against an org anization or its employees by relying on traditional tests | auto abusive market practices questions regulatory response constraining abuse most advanced legal systems outdated normative assumptions human s them algorithms fail to regulate algo market behavior new risks autonomous black boxes short-circuit detection liability enforcement liability hinders enforcement increasing operational challenges trading activities detect abuse especially cross-asset cross-market fundamental legal questions attribution unforeseeable severe disruptions unintended flash crash also consciously crafted employed humans unlawful purposes enforcement less easy Enforcement considerable resources limited in scope skills tech lag players scienter humans autonomous most challenging new algorithmic market abuse old and new "tacit" trickiest for enforcement deterministic autonomous discover self-learning beyond unable fully understand justify fundamental legal concepts for liability cease to function explicitly enforcement authorities prove documented evidence scienter individuals legal persons natural both market abuse antitrust Al itself jurisdictions not recognize alg s as a separate legal personality AI liable itself? still hybrid where to draw the line increasing difficulties prosecuting org traditional tests | ['IV. THE "BLACK BOX" PROBLEM AND GAPS IN THE EXISTING MARKET ABUSE LEGAL FRAMEWORKS', 'The emergence of autonomous trading algorithms and their potential foray into abusive market practices triggers questions with regard to the regulatory response. As we will see below, when constraining instances of algorithmic market abuse, even the most advanced legal systems still rely on somewhat outdated normative assumptions that ultimately address human behaviors and hold them accountable for how their algorithms misbehave on markets. As such, legal frameworks are at a gradually increasing risk of failing to regulate algorithms\' market behavior comprehensively.1 34 As discussed above, increasingly capable and autonomous Al traders can expose markets to new risks. Whenever market abuse involves autonomous Al traders, operating as "black boxes" (e.g., by DRL), severe short-circuits in the safe application of market abuse rules can eventually arise. Specifically, Al may subvert established market conduct rules providing for detection, liability attribution, and other enforcement mechanisms. However, in what follows, our emphasis is on how autonomous Al traders can bypass traditional liability rules and concepts (e.g., "intent," "causation," and "negligence") and to which extent the "black box" problem hinders enforcement actions.', 'a. Sanctioning Algorithmic Market Abuse: The Three Basic Scenarios', "Enforcement authorities face increasing operational challenges to constantly monitor trading activities and effectively detect algorithmic market abuse. This is especially the case for cross-asset and cross-market manipulative strategies.135 Notwithstanding these difficulties in market surveillance, the practice of algorithmic agency generally raises fundamental legal questions about liability attribution. Depending on the actual degree of autonomy, algorithms may cause unforeseeable and severe disruptions to capital markets' safety and integrity according to three basic scenarios, each of which are presented as follows.", 'i. Operational Failure', 'Algorithmic-driven market disruptions can be an unintended consequence of using algorithms to automate trading tasks. Under this first and very basic scenario fall cases like Knight Capital\'s spectacular operational failure in 2012 on the New York Stock Exchange. The investment firm, which went bankrupt after causing markets to flash crash, was responsible for an out-of-control automated routing system used to execute trades that caused massive pressure and disorder on several stocks\' prices. As soon as the defective trading software was fixed, already it had accumulated around $460 million in losses, pushing the investment firm on the brink of bankrupt before being acquired by a competitor. 136 When market disruptions are the result of such unintended consequences of using algorithms -like a system "bug" or any other operational failure- 137 enforcement authorities still have access to the appropriate legal concepts and tools to address liability issues. 138', 'ii. Conscious Use by Humans', 'Market disruptions can also result from algorithms that are consciously crafted and employed by humans for unlawful purposes. In these cases, algorithmic market abuse is "by-design." Algorithms\' ability to manipulate markets or coordinate behavior can either be embedded originally "in-the-code" or result from subsequent training processes. Human experts can teach, from historical examples or within simulated market environments, Al traders how to "discover" manipulation while also guaranteeing the pursuit of a profit-maximizing business goal. 139 The very first case of prosecution for HFT manipulation by U.S. authorities in 2014 is a striking example of humans creating trading algorithms with the specific intent to manipulate markets. Between June and December 2009, Athena Capital, a proprietary HFT firm active in the U.S. equity markets, used its bandit algorithm Gravy to manipulate explicitly, by trading in books\' order imbalances, the closing prices of thousands of publicly listed stocks on the NASDAQ, the second largest U.S. stock exchange. The firm was able to ensure itself a dominant position on equity markets, even if only for the last few seconds in the trading day, and this was enough to allow it to extract extra profits.140 From an enforcement perspective, cases under this second category are less easy to deal with. Enforcement action can consume considerable resources and be limited in scope by public authorities\' skills and technological capabilities, which notoriously lag behind those of major players within the financial industry.141 After all, to punish unlawful market behavior, prosecutors and plaintiffs alike must successfully prove convincing and compelling evidence of the scienter (i.e., intent or other relevant mental state) of humans employing manipulative algorithms. 142', 'iii. Autonomous Al Decision-Making', 'Market abuse by autonomous Al traders represents the third and most challenging scenario. As discussed in Section III, autonomous Al traders can pave the way for new forms of algorithmic market abuse, including old and new market manipulation techniques and risks of "tacit" collusion. These forms of market abuse are also the trickiest for enforcement authorities. Unlike more deterministic Al systems, autonomous Al traders can discover, by self-learning, trading strategies beyond what was originally intended and reasonably foreseeable by human experts. This equates to the "black box" problem (i.e., the inability to either fully understand the Al decision-making process itself or assess the validity of its outcomes). While we would expect both human creators and users to be aware of the limits of their complex Al tools or even their different components, as well as the quality of the data (in terms of statistical representativeness, bias, etc.), they could be nevertheless unable to fully understand or justify why and how their algorithms have reached a specific trading decision. Arguably, this can be particularly the case for those trading systems that employ deep learning due to the well-known intrinsic opacity of the "black box." 143 In fact, while DL methods\' "black box" nature allows for powerful optimizations, their outcomes and behaviors can be opaque. DL methods can thus lead to transparency concerns. 144 From a compliance perspective, technical and legal issues arising from a lack of Al transparency are often framed in terms of the "explainability" of Al financial decision-making. 145 Indeed, the ability to explain algorithms\' outcomes and decisions becomes prominent with regard to liability issues for Al wrongdoing, as enforcement authorities will need to ascertain liability by considering the specific contribution of several individuals within an investment firm in order to guarantee effective enforcement and deterrence. Undoubtedly, specific autonomous Al agents\' "black box" nature adds another layer of complexity for the safe application of liability rules. As discussed below, fundamental legal concepts for liability attribution can cease to function in a safe and proper manner.', 'b. The Failure of Existing Liability Rules', 'To punish market abuse, most legal systems generally require more or less explicitly-that enforcement authorities prove, with documented evidence, the manipulator\'s or conspirator\'s scienter (i.e., "intent" or other relevant mental state) to cause harm, in order to impose any criminal or civil liability. 146 However, the law attributes liability to individuals or legal persons (i.e., investment firms) for acts or omissions committed by a natural person (i.e., employees). This applies to both market abuse regulations and antitrust laws\' enforcement.', 'As a first attempt, one may wonder whether it would be reasonable to attribute liability to Al itself. Unfortunately, jurisdictions at present do not recognize algorithms as a separate legal personality, despite some academic proposals to do so. 147 After all, it is conceptually hard to impute intention on the same Al agents since Al has no consciousness or free will as can be attributed to humans. Thus, the critical issue here is establishing legal liability in connection with Al misconduct. 148 As a starting point, one should analyze the matter by determining responsibility within the organization employing Al. In principle, there could be several individuals potentially liable, including those with organizational responsibility (e.g., board members such as a CIO or CTO, who decide upon the proliferation and application of AI-related projects), and those with the expertise necessary for the creation, development, use, and maintenance of an investment firm\'s proprietary Al trading tools. In fact, all of them might be somehow partly accountable for Al misbehavior to some extent. Besides, as courts cannot prosecute Al agents per se, they could alternatively consider Al as a simple device in humans\' hands.149 Does this mean that we should always treat Al as mere technology? Or still, given AI\'s increasingly autonomous nature, should the law hold AI liable itself? As real Al applications for financial trading are still somewhat hybrid human-AI systems, following the "human-in-theloop" paradigm, the key question is where to draw the line. Sadly enough, enforcement authorities will probably face increasing difficulties in prosecuting cases of market abuse against an organization or its employees by relying on traditional intent-based tests, because the relevant state of mind has to be found within the opaque components and processes of Al. Precisely, by detaching decision-making from those individuals that the law can ultimately reach, Al agency represents an attempt at safe and effective law enforcement as well as deterrence.'] | [
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"one may wonder whether it would be reasonable to attribute liability to Al itself",
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"following the \"human-in-theloop\" paradigm, the key question is where to draw the line. Sadly",
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5210ae746ed89a68a10cdda479bad9b778e4203de3d37a5c2e93286a87d548ca | Studies prove this effect scales as access to robo-advice becomes democratized. | null | Ida Ayu Agung Faradynawati & Inga-Lill Söderberg 22, Department of Real Estate and Construction Management, The Royal Institute of Technology, “Sustainable Investment Preferences among Robo-Advisor Clients,” Sustainability, vol. 14, no. 19, 19, Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute, 01/2022, p. 12636 | Sustainable capital gained recognition by industry robo-advisors utilize algo s to serve a limited budget due to characteristics of the mass market Many offer sustainable investment can, therefore broaden participation in sustainable initiatives raise awareness make it easier by reducing complexity low-risk appetite and short-term horizon were likely to engage in sustainable investment sustainable were preferred by less-wealthy clients robo-advisors were designed for | Sustainable SDGs as part of the UN agenda have been set as the main priority by UN member states since it was launched Initiatives to achieve the SDGs require a substantial amount of financial resources and investments Therefore, the role of the financial sector in mobilizing capital toward sustainable investments is increasingly important Sustainable investment has gained more recognition by financial industry stakeholders and scholars Considering the pivotal role of sustainable investment to accelerate progress toward the SDGs agenda, scholars have undertaken studies to get a better understanding of its concepts and practices scholars have investigated the performance comparison of sustainability-related funds and regular mutual funds the ethical aspects of sustainable investment and the influence of sustainability considerations on investment decision-making Digitalization enables broadened access to financial services by reducing transaction costs , increasing transaction speeds and providing more tailored services With the introduction of robo-advisors financial advisory services are no exception Unlike human financial advisors, robo-advisors require little or no human intervention in constructing investment proposals. Instead, robo-advisors utilize mathematical algo rithm s to automate the process based on financial info investment goals , and risk aversion Robo-advisors were developed to serve early investors with a limited budget and little knowledge The asset allocation process is designed to be very simple and easy due to the characteristics of the mass target market Many services offer sustainable investment as an alternative conventional products . Robo-advisors can, therefore be a major solution to broaden the participation of retail investors in sustainable initiatives . Due to their wider outreach and market segment , robo-advisors can raise awareness of sustainable investment, particularly among the inexperienced and uninformed Robo-advisors make it easier for lay-investors to engage in sustainable investment by reducing the procedural complexity of making investment decisions. The integration of digital tech into financial advisory services through robo-advisors plays a significant role in promoting sustainable investment for retail investors clients with a low-risk appetite and short-term investment horizon were likely to engage in sustainable investment . This strengthens the propositions that highlighted the importance of risk , return , and liquidity preferences in determining socially responsible investment choices . In terms of socio-demographic profiles , sustainable investments were preferred by less-wealthy , female clients robo-advisors were designed for the younger and tech-savvy generation | main priority financial resources investments financial sector capital increasingly important industry stakeholders scholars accelerate progress funds regular Digitalization broadened transaction costs speeds tailored robo-advisors advisory no exception human little or no human intervention algo s automate info goals risk aversion early limited budget very simple easy characteristics of the mass market sustainable alternative conventional products major solution broaden the participation of retail investors in sustainable initiatives wider outreach market segment raise awareness inexperienced uninformed procedural complexity digital tech significant role promoting sustainable investment retail investors low-risk appetite short-term investment likely engage in sustainable investment strengthens risk return liquidity preferences socially responsible investment choices socio-demographic profiles sustainable less-wealthy female clients robo-advisors designed for younger tech-savvy | ['1. Introduction', 'The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as part of the United Nations (UN) 2030 agenda have been set as the main priority by UN member states since it was launched in 2015. Initiatives to achieve the SDGs require a substantial amount of financial resources and investments [1]. Therefore, the role of the financial sector in mobilizing capital toward more sustainable investments is increasingly important. Sustainable investment, as part of sustainable finance initiatives, has gained more recognition by financial industry stakeholders and scholars [2]. It is defined as an investment practice that not only focuses on financial concerns as a single investment objective, but also aims to contribute to sustainable development by incorporating environmental, social, and governance (ESG) aspects into the investment criteria [3]. Considering the pivotal role of sustainable investment to accelerate progress toward the SDGs agenda, scholars have undertaken studies to get a better understanding of its concepts and practices [4]. Within this line of research, scholars have investigated the performance comparison of sustainability-related funds and regular mutual funds [5,6], the ethical aspects of sustainable investment [7,8], and the influence of sustainability considerations on investment decision-making [9,10], among others.', 'Maximizing the role of the financial sector to support sustainable development has been of great concern at the European Union (EU) level in the past few years. As part of the implementation of the 2018 sustainable action plan, the EU established the April 2021 Package [11]. The Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2021/1257 of 21 April 2021 [12] requires all firms subject to the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID), including financial firms and advisors, to discuss the client’s sustainability preferences when conducting an investment suitability assessment. Moreover, the EU also launched the Strategy for Financing the Transition to a Sustainable Economy in July 2021 [13]. One of the formulated strategies is to utilize digital technologies to accelerate the transition of citizens, investors, and SMEs to sustainability. Nevertheless, one of the biggest challenges in implementing this policy is the accessibility of retail investors to sustainable investment products. The lack of availability and limited information prevent a sizable number of interested retail investors from making sustainable investments [14].', 'Digitalization in the financial industry enables broadened access to financial services by reducing transaction costs, increasing transaction speeds, and providing more tailored services [15]. With the introduction of robo-advisors, financial advisory services are no exception. Unlike human financial advisors, robo-advisors require little or no human intervention in constructing investment proposals. Instead, robo-advisors utilize mathematical algorithms to automate the portfolio construction process based on the client’s financial information, investment goals, and degree of risk aversion [16]. Robo-advisors were developed to serve early investors with a limited budget [17] and little knowledge of financial market investment [18]. The asset allocation process is designed to be very simple and easy to understand, due to the characteristics of the mass target market [18]. A digital application requires users to enter their personal financial information and answer a questionnaire regarding their risk profile. These data are used as the basis of robo-advisor algorithms to find the most suitable investment product for users.', 'Many robo-advisory services also offer sustainable investment as an alternative to conventional investment products. Robo-advisors can, therefore, potentially be a major solution to broaden the participation of retail investors in sustainable initiatives. Due to their wider outreach and market segment, robo-advisors can help to raise awareness of sustainable investment, particularly among the inexperienced and uninformed investors. Robo-advisors also make it easier for lay-investors to engage in sustainable investment by reducing the procedural complexity of making investment decisions. The integration of digital technologies into financial advisory services through robo-advisors plays a significant role in promoting sustainable investment, particularly for retail investors. Thus, it is important to understand the characteristics of robo-advisor clients who are engaged in sustainable investments to assist robo-advisory service providers in formulating marketing strategies to promote their sustainable investment products. It would also be beneficial for authorities to know which group of retail investors should be targeted for education or campaigns on the importance of sustainable investment.', 'One of the fast-developing research streams in sustainable finance focuses on explaining the factors that determine individual decisions on sustainable investment. However, the literature regarding sustainable investment decision making in the robo-advisory context is still very limited. The robo-advisor setting becomes relevant because digital advisory services have a unique market segment, lay-investors. An international survey of adult financial literacy [19] found only 41% of the sample from OECD countries purchased financial products or services in the past year. This result shows that the majority of individuals had limited experience in deciding on financial products or services. Lay investors tend to have unwarranted beliefs in the expertise of professional investors such as banks or other financial institutions [20]. To promote sustainable investment, [21] suggests that support be provided through internet platforms, among others, to help investors to choose investment products that suit their sustainability preferences. Considering the role of digital advisory services in promoting sustainable investment and the special characteristics of robo-advisor users, this study aims to fill a gap in sustainable investment research by investigating the sustainable investment preferences among robo-advisor clients.', 'A recent publication [22] investigated the impact of sustainable behavior on investment decisions among robo-advisor clients. The study used questionnaires to investigate whether clients with sustainable lifestyles show a higher interest in choosing sustainable investments through robo-advisory services. The results revealed that customers with sustainable consumption lifestyles are more likely to choose portfolios with a sustainable investment strategy. The analysis was based on hypothetical questions about their willingness to invest in sustainable products, but not based on clients’ actual investment decisions. Our study bridges this gap by analyzing sustainable investment preferences based on actual data. While research methods with hypothetical investment opportunities illustrate investors’ attitudes, our research explains investors’ behavior toward sustainable investment.', 'This study aimed to investigate whether investment-related attitudes and demographic profiles are related to robo-advisor clients’ sustainable investment choices. The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, it contributes to the literature on sustainable investor behavior in digital finance settings. Second, it provides analysis based on actual data where clients reveal their investment preferences through real investment decisions. To the best of our knowledge, no previous works have used real investment data in their studies to examine investors’ behavior toward sustainable financial products, particularly in the digital advisory context. The analysis was performed using logistic regression estimation and showed that risk preference, investment horizon, and demographic profile are significant in determining clients’ sustainable investment choices. The results indicated that clients with low-risk acceptance and short investment horizons are more likely to choose sustainable investments. Furthermore, robo-advisor clients who decide to be sustainable investors are typically less wealthy, female, and older.', 'The remaining part of this paper is organized as follows. The literature review is contained in Section 2. An overview of the data and research method is provided in Section 3. Section 4 presents the results and discussion, and Section 5 concludes the paper.', '2. Literature Review', 'The classical theories in economics and finance [23,24] are based on the notion that investors maximize their utilities by allocating their portfolio based on their preferred combination of risk and return over a given time horizon. In making sustainable investments, however, researchers found that investors consider other factors such as social or environmental motives, in addition to the traditional factors [25,26]. A strand of literature in sustainable finance uses empirical research to identify sustainable investors’ profiles. Using a German-speaking investor dataset, [27] concluded that risk, return, and liquidity preferences influence investors’ decisions in allocating in a socially-responsible way. Sociodemographic factors such as gender, age, religion, and political affiliations, were found to be the determinant factors of socially responsible investment choices [28].', '2.1. Behavioral Finance in the Robo-Advisory Setting', 'This study investigated sustainable investment preferences in the context of robo-advisory services. The growing importance of robo-advisors has attracted increasing attention from scholars, particularly within the field of behavioral finance. Previous literature by [29] compared the performance of investment schemes conducted by robo-advisors and passive investment by individual investors. The findings showed that investors with lower income and lower education levels gain the most from robo-advisors’ investment strategies. A similar argument was proposed by [30]. The study concluded that the simplicity and automation of robo-advisors assists investors, particularly less-experienced ones, to reduce the role of emotion in investment decisions. From the risk perspective, a qualitative study by [31], focusing on financial experts’ point of view, argued that robo-advisory services have to provide a robust risk profiling model to minimize the behavioral biases, such as decision inertia, of their clients. More specific to sustainable decision making, Ref. [22] found that digital financial advisors’ clients, who claim to have sustainable consumption behavior, are more likely to choose sustainable investment proposals instead of conventional ones.', '2.2. Risk–Return Preference', 'Risk–return preference is one of the most significant considerations when individuals make investment decisions. Following traditional financial concepts, individuals place their money in sustainable investments if the investments offer at least a similar risk–return trade-off as conventional investments. However, with the rising concerns from investors to be engaged in more impactful investments, the pecuniary motive is no longer the only consideration when making investment decisions. In general, impact investors are classified into two groups: financial-first investors and impact-first investors [32]. The main goal of financial-first investors is to optimize investment returns, but they are also concerned about the social impact; meanwhile, impact-first investors’ primary objective is to optimize social impact, but they are also concerned about financial returns. Impact investment introduced the concept of “blended value creation” that allows investors to generate both financial returns and social impact [33]. The classification of these two types of investors is based on their expectations regarding risk, return, and impact. Those who classify themselves as impact-first investors view their investment as a value creation strategy instead of a philanthropy action [34]. Financial-first investors can switch to impact-first investors when they change their strategy from generating market-competitive returns from investment with social or environmental impact to maximizing social or environmental returns while achieving the minimum required financial gains [35].', 'Investors are committed to investing in ethical funds as part of a mixed portfolio when the funds are making reasonable returns, but investors lose their interest in ethical investments when the fund’s performance is poor. The findings show that ethical investment decisions are highly elastic to financial returns [8,32]. Ethical investors generally invest in a mixed portfolio instead of solely putting their money exclusively in ethical investments to balance financial and ethical objectives [8]. Unlike investment institutions and institutional investors, private investors do not believe that socially responsible investments outperform conventional investments in the long run [36]. As stated in [37], ethical investors consistently pledge their money to ethical funds even when the funds are underperformed, which implies that these investors derive their utility from both pecuniary and non-pecuniary motives.', 'Risk motive is considered an important factor when making a sustainable decision only when it involves risky products, such as equities [38]. A study by [39] found that risk-tolerant investors are concerned more about the financial return of the fund instead of its environmental aspect. On the contrary, ref. [40] suggested that investors are willing to receive lower financial returns as long as the investment matches their social preferences. Moreover, the study also found that investors are willing to pay higher management fees for socially responsible investments. Ref. [41] analyzed the household preferences for socially responsible investments (SRIs) and found that investors are willing to pay more to be SRI investors, and nudges such as gifts or vouchers are not needed. Ref. [25] stated that investors with higher risk tolerance make smaller investments in socially responsible banks. Sustainability is closely associated with the environmental and social risks that could occur in the distant future. Individuals with lower risk tolerance are less willing to accept this type of uncertainty compared with those with higher risk tolerance. Investing their money into a sustainable investment might be one of their ways to minimize the uncertainty. Additionally, risk-averse investors perceived sustainable investment as a less risky investment [42]. Therefore, this study posits that investors with lower risk tolerance have a higher likelihood of making more sustainable investments. The hypothesis in this study was formulated as follows:', 'Hypothesis 1 (H1). Risk-averse investors are more likely to choose sustainable investments.', '2.3. Investment Horizon', 'In addition to risk-return preference, the investment horizon is one of the main considerations before an individual investor or financial advisor selects the most suitable investment product. The investment horizon corresponds to how long an investor wants to place their money in a particular investment or portfolio. A study by [43] concluded that the investment horizon is an important factor in determining investors’ portfolio allocations. The investment horizon also defines the attractiveness of the investment strategies of individual investors [44]. In addition, investors’ horizons significantly affect the proportion of equities in their portfolio, and with a longer horizon, the likelihood of investing more in equities is decreased by a factor of ten [45].', 'Ref. [46] examined the relationship between the investment behavior of UK institutional investors and corporate social responsibility-related activities. The findings showed that long-term investors avoid investing their funds in companies with low corporate social responsibility (CSR) performance. SRI investors are less sensitive to the financial performance of funds and tend to invest for longer than conventional investors [47]. One possible explanation is that the availability of alternative investment products that meet their social preferences is limited. Ref. [48] reported that since the 2014 heatwave in Sweden, investors have been reallocating to greener investments and expect these investments to outperform conventional ones in the long run. The sustainability concept is often associated with a long-term or even intergenerational vision. Climate change risk, for instance, is traditionally seen as something that will occur in the distant future and distant locations. Construal Level Theory [49] explains how four dimensions of psychological distance namely spatial, temporal, social, and uncertainty, can influence an individual’s preference, prediction, and action. People are more likely to make risky decisions if the consequences of that action occurs in the distant future. It could be argued that investors with long-term investment horizons have a stronger preference for sustainable investments because they generally have a shorter temporal distance from the future. The hypothesis in this study was formulated as follows:', 'Hypothesis 2 (H2). Long-term investors are more likely to choose sustainable investments.', '2.4. Sociodemographic Characteristics', 'A large amount of literature provides empirical evidence for the relationship between sociodemographic characteristics and sustainable investment choices of retail investors. Sociodemographic factors such as level of income, gender, and age are considered determinants of sustainable investment decisions. Initial studies about the characteristics of socially responsible consumers by [50,51] revealed that female, young, highly educated, and medium-to-high-income consumers are more likely to be socially conscious. Ref. [52] found that consumers who are female, married, and have at least one child have a higher willingness to pay for environmentally friendly products.', 'Regarding sustainable investment, female consumers have been found to be more environmentally conscious compared with their male counterparts [53]. Similar findings by [54] also mentioned that women tend to hold a larger proportion of socially responsible shares in their portfolios. A more recent publication by [28] showed that female investors prefer to invest in stocks with women-friendly labor policies, whereas younger investors place more emphasis on environmentally friendly stocks. When it comes to age, other studies by [55,56] revealed that socially responsible investments are more likely to be chosen by older investors. Investors who are categorized into the “socially responsible saver and conventional saver based on availability” are dominated by older people compared with younger people [57]. Furthermore, Ref. [58] surveyed well-informed individual investors in the U.S. and revealed that female, younger, and less-wealthy investors are more likely to invest in socially responsible investments. Similarly, Ref. [25] showed that younger, better educated, and low-wealth investors have more interest in SRI products. Investors with lower income levels are more exposed to the risk that arises from social and environmental issues because they have lower financial buffers than their more wealthy counterparts. This makes them care more about sustainability aspects when making investment decisions. Wealthy investors, on the contrary, are more willing to sacrifice social considerations to maximize their financial gains [59]. In regards to gender issues, males and females are believed to have different cognitive abilities, risk attitudes, and decision-making styles, which leads to differing moral intensity perceptions [60,61]. Female investors perceived social consciousness and social action as important factors that determine the success of a company [62]. ESG is considered to be relatively new, with the result that younger generations have a better understanding of the importance of sustainability aspects in their daily life. The younger generations are concerned more about sustainability when making purchase decisions [63]. Thus, in this study, the following hypotheses were proposed:', 'Hypothesis 3 (H3). Less-wealthy investors are more likely to choose sustainable investments.', 'Hypothesis 4 (H4). Female investors are more likely to choose sustainable investments.', 'Hypothesis 5 (H5). Younger investors are more likely to choose sustainable investments.', '2.5. Variable Operationalization', 'Based on the literature review and hypotheses development, Table 1 summarizes the variables included in the analysis.', '[TABLE 1 OMITTED]', '3. Materials and Methods', '3.1. Data and Estimation Methods', 'This study used a large data set generated by Nora, a robo-advisory service by Nordea. Nordea is the largest Nordic retail banking group, present in 20 countries with main loan portfolios spread across four Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden). It currently serves approximately 10 million customers, both private and corporate. The target group for Nora as a digital advisory service is lay-investors with low-to-moderate experience in financial investments. Before starting their investment, Nora clients are required to provide sociodemographic information, investment-related attitudes such as risk preference and investment horizon, and sustainable investment preferences. The sampling method was a total population sampling consisting of 27,771 observations of all Nora clients who registered between December 2017 and June 2021. The data used in this study covered Sweden, Norway, and Finland. We chose Nordic countries as our sample because these countries are the top performers in achieving the SDGs target by 2030 [64].', 'Analysis of the data was carried out using Stata version 13 software. The data were analyzed using a logistic regression model or logit. The logit model is an estimation method that can be used to estimate a model where the dependent variable has dichotomous outcomes [65]. In this study, the outcomes of the dependent variables took the value of 1 if the client chose to buy sustainable investment products and 0 if the client decided not to buy. The independent variables used to explain the dependent variables were risk appetite, investment horizon, income, gender, age, and country. The probability (Pi) that a client decided to engage in sustainable investment was estimated by Model 1 as follows:', '[EQUATION OMITTED]', 'where:', '[EQUATION OMITTED]', 'In the logistic regression model, the probability of choosing sustainable investments was estimated using a logistic cumulative distributive function of the standard normal distribution, P, given by:', '[EQUATION OMITTED]', 'The predicted sustainable investment logit model is specified as:', '[EQUATION OMITTED]', '3.2. Descriptive Statistics', 'To assist clients in selecting a suitable investment product, the robo-advisor asked clients to classify their risk tolerance into one of three categories. As shown in Table 2, the majority of the clients considered themselves as investors with moderate risk–return preference (65.94%), where the clients accept a moderate risk of loss in exchange for a moderate expected return. Concerning investment horizons, most clients preferred short-term (3–6 years) and low-medium-term investments (6–10 years). More than half of clients earned between EUR 2001 and EUR 4000. The second-largest percentage (39.29%) fell into the group of clients who earn less than EUR 2000. Most of the clients were male, accounting for 54.67% of the total sample. The robo-advisory service was designed for the younger and tech-savvy generation, as shown in Table 2, where clients aged between 26 and 40 years old dominated the total population. Based on country of residence, 40.86% of the total population were from Finland, 38.21% from Sweden, and 20.92% from Norway. In the last stage before providing an investment recommendation, the robo-advisor asked about the client’s preference for a sustainable investment product. In total, 33.69% of the robo-advisor clients chose to invest sustainably, and the rest stated that they were not interested in sustainable investment.', '[TABLE 2 OMITTED]', 'Table 3 reports the cross-tabulation statistics of each of the independent variables and the clients’ preference for sustainable investment. Among all the risk profile categories, the clients in the low-risk group had the highest participation rate in sustainable investment. The moderate-risk group came second with 35.59% of all clients in the group, and the lowest percentage comprised clients with a high-risk profile. The percentage of clients in the four different types of investment horizon choices who preferred sustainable investment was quite similar, ranging from 31.83% to 35.96%. The sustainable investment was preferred mostly by clients within the low- and middle-low-income group, who earned less than EUR 4000 per month. In line with the findings from previous literature about sustainability or sustainable investment, the percentage of female clients who chose to invest sustainably was higher than their male counterparts. Moreover, it was shown that sustainable investment becomes a preferable option for elderly clients aged more than 55 years old. The second highest percentage was the group of clients aged 26–40 years old. The statistics also indicated that Sweden was the country with the largest percentage of clients preferring sustainable investment (39.13%), compared with Finland (38.66%) and Norway (14.06%).', '[TABLE 3 OMITTED]', '4. Results and Discussion', 'Two logistic regression models were run to test the relationship between investment-related attitudes and sociodemographic attributes in the sustainable investment choices of robo-advisor clients. Table 4 presents the results of both Model 1, which excluded the country differences variable, and Model 2, which considered the country effect. The logit estimation provided a regression coefficient and odds ratio for each independent variable. The odds ratio showed the likelihood of clients choosing sustainable investment as the predictor increased. When the odds ratio is less than 1, this indicates that clients are less likely to invest sustainably as the value of the independent variable increases. An odds ratio of more than 1 shows that sustainable investment is more likely to be chosen as the predictor increases.', '[TABLE 4 OMITTED]', 'The risk–return preference was significant at the 1% significance level in both models. Therefore, we rejected H0 and found that there was a correlation between the risk profile and sustainable investment preference. In Models 1 and 2, the coefficients of moderate- and high-risk profiles were negative and the odds ratios were less than 1. In comparison with risk-averse investors, investors with moderate- and high-risk tolerance were less likely to choose sustainable investments. Model 1 demonstrated that the moderate-risk investors had 0.858 times the odds of the low-risk investors choosing sustainable investments. Meanwhile, the risk-lover group had 35% lower odds of purchasing sustainable investments than the risk-averse clients. The odds ratios for the moderate- and high-risk groups of the clients in Models 1 and 2 were 0.845 and 0.666, respectively. The results support the hypothesis that clients with low-risk and return preferences have a higher chance of choosing sustainable investments. As reported by [38,66,67], sustainable investment was positively valued by the investors and seen as a less-risky investment. This explains the finding that sustainable investment was preferred by investors with lower risk tolerance. Further supporting empirical evidence by [25] indicated that risk-tolerant investors have less interest in depositing their savings in socially responsible banks.', 'Moreover, the results confirmed that the investment horizon was statistically significant in explaining the clients’ sustainable investment choices. Only in Model 2 was the result found to be non-significant for the long-term investment horizon category. Clients with investment horizons ranging from three to six years were more likely to become sustainable investors compared with the other categories. This result was quite surprising because sustainability is a concept associated with a long-term focus. A study by [36] concluded that the intention of private investors to make socially responsible investments is positively influenced by their beliefs about the long-term returns of said investments. Many studies in the literature [46,47] have also concluded that sustainable investments are preferred by investors with long-term investment horizons. Nevertheless, in this robo-advisory context, the descriptive statistics show that the short-term investment horizon was identified as the group with the highest percentage of clients choosing a sustainable investment.', 'Interestingly, the client’s income level was negatively associated with the likelihood of becoming a sustainable investor. The robo-advisor clients that chose sustainable investment tended to be in a lower-income bracket than those who did not. The descriptive statistics also indicate that there is a higher percentage of lower-income clients purchasing sustainable investments through robo-advisors. This finding is supported by previous literature [25], which found that investors with a lower wealth status have higher odds of choosing a socially responsible investment. However, the result is in contrast to [40], who found that investors with a higher level of income have higher odds of choosing socially responsible investments.', 'As predicted, female robo-advisor clients were more likely to be sustainable investors. This result confirms the results of [58], which analyzed the demographics of socially responsible investors in the United States. One possible explanation is that women are more concerned about the environment than men, as mentioned in [3]. Consistent with the results found by [2], the sustainable investor segment was made up of older people. It was also shown in the descriptive statistics that among all age groups, clients aged more than 55 years old had the highest percentage of group members choosing sustainable investments. This is in line with [55,56], who revealed that socially responsible investors are older.', 'Lastly, we also considered the country effect in Model 2 to see if there is any difference in the sustainable investment behavior in the three countries. Only Finland was found to be statistically significant, with a negative coefficient and odds ratio of less than one. Meanwhile, Norway was found to be insignificant. This indicates that the Finnish clients were less likely to choose sustainable investment than the Swedish clients.', 'The goodness of fit of the models is shown by the McFadden pseudo R-squared values [68]. The pseudo R-squared values for both models were quite low, 2% for Model 1 and 5.7% for Model 2. However, we also ran a classification test on Stata to check if the models were correctly specified. The results indicate that Model 1 succeeded to produce accurately 66.20% of the true outcomes and Model 2 was correctly specified at the 66.27% level.', 'The summary of the hypothesis test results is presented in Table 5. The conclusion is drawn based on the p-value and the odds ratio.', '[TABLE 5 OMITTED]', 'The robustness test was performed by doing simulations of the four different models. The results of the robustness test are displayed in Table 6. Model 1 included all of the independent variables in the regression equation. Meanwhile, model 2 included risk–return preference and sociodemographic variables, and model 3 consisted of investment horizon and sociodemographic variables. Model 4 only included sociodemographic variables to test its impact on sustainable investment choice. Changing the independent variables in each model still provided consistent results. The independent variables in models 1, 2, 3, and 4 were statistically significant in explaining the sustainable investment choice. The intercept in all models also showed positive signs with slightly different values. Consistency also can be found in the McFadden R-squared values in four models. The consistent results in four different simulation models show that our estimation model is robust.', '[TABLE 6 OMITTED]', '5. Conclusions', 'Defining the right target market is crucial for financial institutions to develop an effective marketing strategy for their sustainable investment products for retail investors. Additionally, it is also important for the government and financial authorities to understand the market segment of sustainable investment products to raise awareness of sustainable investment for the untouched segments. Lay-investors are more prone to make inappropriate investment decisions because of their lack of knowledge about finance and sustainable investment. Financial authorities can design educational campaigns targeted to each market segment as a means to provide customer protection to lay-investors. Better knowledge about sustainable investment can help to minimize the barriers to lay-investors who are interested in sustainable investment but have difficulties in choosing the right products. This study fills a gap by providing empirical evidence of the determinants of sustainable investment decisions in digital financial advisory settings. Using a large dataset from three Nordic countries, this study explored the sustainable investment preferences of robo-advisor clients. A logistic regression model was used to examine the relationship between investment-related attitudes and sociodemographic characteristics.', 'The findings of this study showed that clients with a low-risk appetite and short-term investment horizon were more likely to engage in sustainable investment. This strengthens the propositions of [27,39] that highlighted the importance of risk, return, and liquidity preferences in determining socially responsible investment choices. In terms of socio-demographic profiles, sustainable investments were preferred by less-wealthy, female, and older clients. We also included country effects in the second model, and the results indicated that Swedish clients were more engaged in sustainable investment than clients from neighboring countries. In relation to gender, our result was in line with previous studies that reported evidence that women are more engaged in social and environmental aspects [10,66]. Nevertheless, our study results contradicted to [14] which found that age and income were positively correlated to the amounts allocated to sustainable investments.', 'Our findings have several important implications both for policymakers and practitioners. First, our study provides identified investor profiles and their relationship to sustainability preferences. Policymakers and financial authorities should prioritize educational campaigns to foster knowledge among investors with lower engagement in sustainable investment. Our results provide information relevant to policymakers to mobilize investors to sustainable investment through digital financial services. Second, from the practitioners’ point of view, this study assists financial institutions to unlock retail investment potential by providing the characteristics of investors with a higher likelihood of choosing a sustainable investment.', 'This study is not without limitations. First, this study was conducted only in the Nordic context, limiting the author’s capacity to analyze the behavior of investors from different backgrounds. Nordic countries are known to be leaders in sustainability movements [69], whereas many other countries still lag. Second, it is important to note that the sample used in this study was dominated by younger people, as robo-advisors were designed for the younger and tech-savvy generation. This leads to a possible bias in the analysis. Lastly, due to the unavailability of data, this study did not include other variables that might be relevant, such as financial literacy, digital literacy, and prior knowledge in investment, in the analysis. Despite of these limitations, this study provides initial findings about the determinants of sustainable investment behavior among robo-advisor clients. This study can be extended to a cross-cultural study to investigate where there is any difference in sustainable investment preference in countries with different levels of sustainability awareness. It would also be interesting to include financial literacy, prior knowledge in investment, and digital literacy as additional variables. Since robo-advisors combine digital and financial products, it is recommended to analyze investors’ preferences from both perspectives.'] | [
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bbd6bdf8dae1ce0c61225868dcc16fbe8401424bb536e19881b5eec77c3a0154 | This enables fully automated ‘beta activism’ that channels corporate activity against existential risk. | null | Bill Baue 20, Senior Director at r3.0, internationally recognized expert on Sustainability Thresholds, Thriveability, and Online Stakeholder Engagement, serial social entrepreneur, Convener for the Connecticut River Valley Bioregional Collaborative of the Capital Institute’s Regenerative Communities Network, Convener of the Indicators Scorecards workstream of the Transformations Systems Mapping & Analysis Working Group, “From Monocapitalism to Multicapitalism: 21st Century System Value Creation,” r3.0, December 2020, | reporting enabl rightsholders to understand outputs investors diversify However risk can aggregate – to systemic break an entire system rather than parts earth’s climate literal life support when capital overshoot combines with natural a fatal cocktail If risks actualize in life systems human existence is at risk systemic risk portends eclipsing Modern Portfolio Theory as a solution to risk, since risk can blanket the entire market investors had a hand in creating this risk . The solution is to turn MPT on its head through Beta Activism beta represent volatility of a portfolio compared to a index beta is the operating environment MPT postulates beta cannot be affected by individual portfolio s belied by the fact that beta is the sum of all investment so managers by definition affect it . This aggregates to Systemic Existential risk | financial reporting plays a fundamental role in enabl ing rightsholders to understand the organization’s outputs and impacts , both financial and extra-financial investors are primarily influenced by diversify ing risk across a broad portfolio So long as that risk remained broadly and discretely dispersed to individual securities , investors could seek “alpha” or market outperformance as a strategy for de-risking and generating attractive returns. However , as the Global Financial Crisis demonstrated, just as risk can be widely and discretely dispersed, so too can it aggregate – to the systemic level . The term “Systemic Risk” emerged to describe the “risk of a break down of an entire system rather than simply the individual parts While the term systemic risk is most often associated with breakdown of financial systems it also applies to the earth’s climate regulation system given that the climate regulation system is literal ly the earth’s life support this risk has expanded beyond the systemic to the existential level existential risk happens when financial capital carrying capacity overshoot combines with natural capital carrying capacity overshoot which we are already experiencing on 4 of nine Planetary Boundaries a fatal cocktail If systemic risks actualize in the earth’s key life -sustaining systems the very continuance of human existence is at significant risk human impacts on our biosphere have already triggered the loss of other living species at a rate one thousand times higher than the “background” rate it takes a prodigious amount of stupid ity to believe humans can escape the fate we’re imposing on other living beings , all vital participants in the web of life systemic risk portends eclipsing Modern Portfolio Theory as a solution to risk, since risk can now blanket the entire market investors collectively had a hand in creating this systems-level risk , as they failed to attend to the risks their investments externalized onto the operating environment . The solution is to turn MPT on its head through “ Beta Activism .” beta represent the volatility of a stock portfolio as compared to a broad index . If a portfolio has low beta it moves with the market. Most passive investing portfolios have low betas . If a portfolio has a high beta it is more volatile In other words, beta is the real world operating environment , the ultimate sandbox of the broader market MPT “ postulates that beta is a given and cannot be affected by individual portfolio s which is belied by the fact that beta is the net sum of all investment activity so individual managers by definition affect it . This impact aggregates to the level where it impacts the overall system Systemic Existential risk | financial reporting fundamental role enabl rightsholders outputs impacts financial extra-financial investors diversify risk broad portfolio individual securities seek “alpha” Global Financial Crisis widely discretely aggregate systemic level break entire system simply individual parts financial also climate literal earth’s life support beyond systemic existential level existential risk capital overshoot combines natural 4 of nine Planetary Boundaries fatal cocktail actualize life systems very continuance human existence other living species prodigious stupid humans escape the fate imposing on other living beings vital participants web of life eclipsing Modern Portfolio Theory entire market had a hand creating this risk failed externalized operating environment solution turn MPT on its head “ Beta Activism .” broad index low with passive low betas high more beta real world operating environment ultimate sandbox of the broader market MPT beta is a given cannot be affected individual portfolio s belied beta net sum all investment activity by definition affect it aggregates overall system Systemic Existential risk | ['Clearly, financial reporting plays a fundamental role in enabling rightsholders (shareholders, stakeholders, and all whose fundamental rights are impacted by an organization’s activities) to understand the organization’s outputs and impacts, both financial and extra-financial. However, the exclusive focus on financial capital prevents rightsholders from being able to gain a holistic perspective on the organization. And given the innate interconnectivity between the multiple capitals, it is safe to say that rightsholders don’t even gain a comprehensive view of the financial status of the organization when deprived of comprehensive information on the full suite of multiple capitals.', 'The key “filter” for relevant information is materiality, but the processes for determining both financial materiality and sustainability materiality are fundamentally flawed – because neither addresses the carrying capacities of the capitals, and also, neither considers the duties and obligations organizations owe for impacts on vital capitals that their rightsholders rely on for their wellbeing.205', '3.4.\u2003BETA ACTIVISM AND SYSTEMIC & EXISTENTIAL RISK', 'The primary audience of financial reporting is investors (or more broadly, providers of financial capital), who are primarily influenced by Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) since Harry Moskowitz introduced the concept in 1952.206 The Theory has been very helpful in diversifying risk across a broad portfolio of asset classes and investments. So long as that risk remained broadly and discretely dispersed to individual securities, investors could seek “alpha” (or market outperformance) as a strategy for de-risking and generating attractive returns.', 'However, as the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2007-8 demonstrated, just as risk can be widely and discretely dispersed, so too can it aggregate – to the systemic level. The term “Systemic Risk” emerged to describe the “risk of a breakdown of an entire system rather than simply the failure of individual parts.”207 While the term systemic risk is most often associated with breakdown of financial systems (and hence the economies they operate within), it also applies to other systems – such as the earth’s climate regulation system.208 Indeed, given that the climate regulation system is literally the earth’s life support system, this risk has expanded beyond the systemic level, to the existential level. Think of existential risk as what happens when financial capital carrying capacity overshoot (which we experienced in the GFC) combines with natural capital carrying capacity overshoot (which we are already experiencing on 4 of the nine Planetary Boundaries): a fatal cocktail.', 'The term “Existential Risk” followed close on the heels of the term “Systemic Risk.” If systemic risks actualize in the earth’s key life-sustaining systems (such as the climate regulation system), then the very continuance of human existence is at significant risk. Indeed, human impacts on our biosphere have already triggered the loss of other living species at a rate one thousand times higher than the “background” rate (and heading for ten thousand times): it takes a prodigious amount of hubris (sometimes translated as “stupidity”) to believe that we humans can necessarily escape the fate we’re imposing on other living beings, all of us vital participants in the web of life.209', 'Jim Hawley and Jon Lukomnic believe that the emergence of systemic risk now portends the eclipsing of Modern Portfolio Theory as a blanket solution to risk, since risk can now blanket the entire market. And ironically, investors collectively had a hand in creating this systems-level risk, as they failed to attend to the risks their investments externalized onto the operating environment. The solution Hawley and Lukomnic propose is to turn MPT on its head through what they call “Beta Activism.”210', 'Understanding Beta Activism requires understanding what beta is. Markowitz chose the Greek letter beta to represent the volatility of a stock portfolio as compared to a broad market index. If a portfolio has a low beta, it means it moves with the market. Most passive investing and couch-potato portfolios have low betas. If a portfolio has a high beta, it means it is more volatile than the market.211', 'In other words, beta is the real world, the operating environment, the ultimate sandbox of the broader market that all investors play in. Hawley and Lukomnic note that MPT “postulates that beta is a given and cannot be affected by individual portfolio managers,” which is belied by the fact that beta is the net sum of all investment activity (in dynamic relationship with real-world developments to which market actors react), so individual portfolio managers by definition affect it. This impact is so small as to be “invisible,” and it only becomes visible to the naked eye when it aggregates to the level where it impacts the overall system. Systemic risk. Existential risk.'] | [
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a772868ae7b3f0bd02b8e69a81b4e863a126073948e1b6c612ea7e7e7a8aaf99 | Stable robo-advisory saves retail investing and savings, which cushions the aging crisis. | null | Mihoko Sumida 20, Hitotsubashi Universität, Tōkyō, “Robo-Advisors and the Legal Duties of Their Providers,” Zeitschrift Für Japanisches Recht, vol. 25, no. 49, 49, 06/17/2020, pp. 201–221 | Robo-Advisors inherent features pose legal challenges we should expand fiduciary duties to include machines the market is still early However growing given life expectancy and decrease in retirement benefits awareness of need for long-term diversified” investments is expected to grow rapidly Robo-Advisors reduce investment costs overcoming risks creating opportunities for people who previously could not afford advice to access the market the pension crisis backdrop contributing to the capital market With aging population and shifting demographic s generations are worried about post-retirement life these individuals are expected to shift to investing do not fit the typical investor who can critically assess info Hence, these require higher protection from info quantity and quality Advisors can respond to the need for low-cost, good-quality advice a materially irrational decision by AI concerns a breach of the duty of care owed by a prudent manager the legal grounds sit well with American law but also the nature of AI the black-box problem the Advisor could recommend a portfolio not suitable But it is extremely difficult to know the reason a disclaimer could be one-sided detrimental to clients , allowing firms to pass on adverse effects Robo-Advisors must be subject to the same rules as human advisors we are in an aging society firms urgently need social science that incorporate financial gerontology to respond with the “pension crisis” and health risks with aging people need advisors who offer comprehensive advice automated services can play an increasing role | online asset management services referred to as Robo-Advisors offer mechanized services free of human involvement, with even investment decisions being made automatically in non-face-to-face transactions . However, the inherent features of Robo-Advisors pose numerous legal challenges we should apply financial regulations and rules to Robo- Advisors , and expand fiduciary duties beyond being imposed only on humans so as to include machines as well The use of Robo-Advisors has developed rapidly Although the public has been encouraged to use assets for investment the market of Robo-Advisors is still in an early phase of development , with the first launching its services in 2016 . However , the market is growing a recent episode triggered controversy given the increase in life expectancy and decrease in retirement benefits , an elderly couple living on pensions would need savings over and above their public pension benefits to fund a 30-year post-retirement life the controversy has unexpectedly contributed to a rapid rise in public awareness of the need for and the importance of “ long-term , installment, and diversified” investments One of the outcomes is that the number of accounts managed by Robo-Advisors is expected to grow rapidly The core features of these services are “automation” and non-face-to-face transactions thanks to these features, Robo-Advisors have been able to reduce investment costs and pave the way towards overcoming risks and restrictions associated with human nature, creating new opportunities for people – especially those who previously could not afford investment advice – to access the financial market democratization and popularization of asset management services There is no disputing that the rapid growth of Robo-Advisors was realized against the backdrop of network effects made possible by the proliferation of smartphones and improvements in user interfaces. At the same time, it is pointed out that the “investment advice gap ” and “ pension crisis ” – issues faced by developed countries where services capable of responding to pension issues are not available to the general public serve as the backdrop for recent rapid growth in this context Robo-Advisors provide low-cost, high-quality services driven by tech innovations , thereby ultimately contributing to the development of the capital market . With aging population and shifting demographic s tructure generations are supporting pension s but are worried about post-retirement life because they often do not understand the details of their pension benefits. It is fair to describe these investors as “consumers” who are forced to make investments and manage their own assets as part of their self-help efforts they represent generations of individuals that are now expected to shift their assets from saving to investing These investors who make investments from their household financial assets do not fit the typical profile of an investor who can be expected to critically assess given info rmation Hence, these new investors require higher protection legal reforms undertaken to protect retail investors following the financial crisis focused on how to regulate investment advice. The aim was to induce a shift from the traditional protection system that emphasized processes based on provision of info info problems in terms of both quantity information overload and quality conflicts of interest became appar- ent, and a simple and comprehensive format to provide information was presented the regulations have been strengthened in order to improve transparency fully enforce the prohibition of conflicts of interest, and disclose risk of conflicts of interest. However, such reforms will only increase compliance costs for firms , thus raising the threshold for investment advice services offered by human advisors and giving rise to the problem of “advice refugees”. This would mean an increasing number of people who cannot enjoy investment advice from human advisors because they do not have enough assets nor do they have sufficient savings for their post-retirement lives , leaving no alternative Robo- Advisors can respond to the social need for low-cost, good-quality investment advice services by cutting compliance costs through digitization and automation of client management a materially irrational decision by AI concerns a breach of the duty of care owed by a prudent manager the legal grounds sit well with the interpretation under American law but also with the nature of algorithms and AI AI use probability theory-based method to make investment decisions on the ground of correlations between facts that cannot be recognized by humans , and have the potential to generate more profits This is related to the “ black-box problem ” inherent in machine-made decisions in which one option is recommended over other options. the mere fact that machine-made decisions can be beyond human comprehension should not suffice to establish a breach of the duty of care. We rather have to examine if it was reasonable to use AI But this raises another point If the suitability check focuses on limited information about the profile of the customer , the Robo- Advisor could recommend a portfolio which is not suitable And there is a possibility of the system’s vendor being liable But for a customer it is extremely difficult to know the reason as is often the case with FinTech the details of Robo- Advisory services are unclear , and it is difficult to indicate which service applies a disclaimer could be seen as a one-sided provision detrimental to clients , allowing financial services firms to pass on to clients the adverse effects caused by a lack of transparency regarding the laws and regulations their services must comply with the effect of such a disclaimer is rejected in financial regulation Robo-Advisors must be subject to the same rules as human advisors because, unlike areas where the competitive advantage of machines over humans is clear, such as HFT Advisor humans and machines use their respec- tive qualities to compete we are now living in an aging society where people often live to 100 Against this backdrop, financial services firms urgently need social science perspectives that incorporate financial gerontology to improve their capabilities to respond to today’s ever-changing society and create a new business environment people’s needs for asset management will diversify and an increasing number will be interested not only in building up their assets through “long-term, installment and diversified” investments but also in how to best optimize their assets after retirement we are now seeing more diversification in financial products and services in this area consistent with people’s changing lifestyles with our rapidly aging society facing many uncertainties , including the “pension crisis” and health risks associated with aging people feel a strong need for “ advisors who are able to offer comprehensive advice that is in the best interest of clients according to their life stage automated advice services can very much play an increasing role in this field through the utilization of Robo-Advisors that offer low-cost high-quality asset management to a wider range of investors | Robo-Advisors mechanized services free even investment decisions automatically non-face-to-face transactions inherent features numerous legal challenges financial regulations rules Robo- Advisors expand fiduciary duties beyond only on humans include machines as well developed rapidly encouraged investment early phase of development first 2016 growing controversy increase in life expectancy decrease in retirement benefits need savings over and above their public pension benefits 30-year post-retirement life outcomes Robo-Advisors grow rapidly core features “automation” non-face-to-face transactions reduce investment costs pave the way overcoming risks restrictions previously not afford financial market democratization popularization asset management services no disputing rapid growth backdrop network effects gap pension crisis developed countries pension issues not available general public backdrop low-cost, high-quality services tech innovations development of the capital market . aging population shifting demographic s tructure supporting pension s worried post-retirement life details “consumers” forced self-help efforts expected shift their assets saving investing not fit typical profile critically assess given info rmation higher protection traditional info info quantity overload quality conflicts interest transparency enforce increase compliance costs firms raising the threshold for investment advice services human advisors problem of “advice refugees”. increasing number of people cannot enjoy investment advice from human advisors do not have enough assets nor sufficient savings for their post-retirement lives no alternative respond to the social need low-cost, good-quality investment advice services cutting compliance costs digitization automation of client management irrational decision by AI breach of the duty of care prudent manager legal grounds well interpretation under American law nature of algorithms AI probability theory-based method correlations facts cannot be recognized by humans more profits “ black-box problem ” can be not suffice reasonable to use AI another point profile of the customer not suitable system’s vendor customer extremely difficult to know the reason details unclear difficult to indicate disclaimer one-sided provision detrimental to clients financial services firms pass on to clients effect rejected financial regulation Robo-Advisors must subject same rules human advisors HFT compete aging society often live to 100 urgently need social science perspectives incorporate financial gerontology improve their capabilities to respond to today’s ever-changing society new business environment diversify increasing number optimize after retirement more diversification in financial products and services many uncertainties “pension crisis” health risks aging according to their life stage automated advice services very much play an increasing role in this field Robo-Advisors low-cost high-quality asset management wider range of investors | ['This article discusses online asset management services that are referred to as “Robo-Advisors” (or “Robo-Advice”). Robo-Advisors offer mechanized services free of human involvement, with even investment decisions being made automatically in non-face-to-face transactions. However, the inherent features of Robo-Advisors pose numerous legal challenges. I would like to discuss how we should apply financial regulations and civil rules to Robo- Advisors, and how we should expand fiduciary duties beyond the premise of their being imposed only on humans so as to include machines as well. ', 'I will start with an overview of the Robo-Advisor market, followed by my identifying the key regulatory issues consistent with international and comparative research. In the next section, I pose some legal questions based on Japanese law. The paper is rounded off with some concluding remarks. ', 'I. THE ROBO-ADVISOR MARKET ', '1. The Rapid Growth of a New Market and its Socio-economic Policy Context ', 'According to “Statista.com”, assets under management in the Robo-Advis- or segment amounted worldwide to USD 980 billion in the year 2019, and this market is expected to show an annual growth rate (CAGR [compound annual growth rate] 2019–2023) of 27.0%.1 Reports claim the existence of about 200 Robo-Advisors in the US, with a total estimated value of assets managed exceeding USD 400 billion in 2018; this figure is anticipated to grow at an average annual rate of over 30 percent, reaching approximately USD 1.5 trillion by 2023.2 The use of Robo-Advisors has developed rapidly over the last three years in Europe as well. There are now over 70 Robo- Advisors, with a total of Euro 14 billion of assets under management (AuM) last year and around 900,000 clients.3 ', 'When looking at Japan, it should be noted that cash and deposits make up over 50% of the financial assets of an average household, namely more than JPY 900 trillion.4 Although the public has been encouraged to use their assets for investment on previous occasions, the market of Robo-Advisors is still in an early phase of its development, with the first Robo-Advisor being funded in 2015 and launching its services in 2016. However, the market of Robo- Advisors is growing. There are now six companies known as “Robo-Advisors”,5 and the amount of AuM was approximately JPY 122 billion in the year 2018, which is approximately GBP (British pound sterling) 927 million.6 ', 'Here, in relation to this point, I touch on a recent episode that triggered controversy. The Financial System Council (one of the councils established under the Financial Services Agency of Japan) released a report titled “Asset Building and Management in an Aging Society” in June 2019.7 According to the report, given the increase in life expectancy and the decrease in retirement benefits, an elderly couple living on pensions would need “approximately JPY 20 million (approximately GBP 156,000) in savings over and above their public pension benefits to fund a 30-year post-retirement life”.8 The report sparked a public backlash with people focusing exclusively on the figure of JPY 20 million in savings. The government desperately tried to quell the uproar as the summer election day neared, but the controversy has unexpectedly contributed to a rapid rise in public awareness of the need for and the importance of “long-term, installment, and diversified” investments.9 One of the outcomes of this controversy is that, according to a prognosis of market watchers, the number of accounts managed by Robo-Advisors is expected to grow rapidly, presumably reaching over a million accounts next year and continuing to grow to up to 2.6 million accounts in 2023.10 ', '2. Two Types of Robo-Advisors ', 'Although there are various types of Robo-Advisors, at least in Japan they are generally classified as (i) “investment advice type” or (ii) “investment man- agement type”. Investment advice type Robo-Advisors propose portfolios or financial products suited to customers based on their answers to a set of simple questions, covering topics such as the customer’s age, occupation, investment objectives, investment experience, and risk tolerance. Customers can answer these questions on either their personal computers or smartphones. Invest-ment management type Robo-Advisors even make investment decisions on behalf of customers. These services are termed “robo” because investment advice is provided through automated means with no human interaction, using algorithms to automatically provide modern and portfolio-theory-based “long-term, installment, and diversified” asset management services.11 ', 'The core features of these innovative services are “automation” and “online” (non-face-to-face) transactions. And thanks to these features, Robo-Advisors have been able to reduce investment costs and pave the way towards overcoming the risks and restrictions associated with human nature, creating new opportunities for people – especially those who previously could not afford investment advice – to access the financial market (“democratization” and “popularization” of asset management services). There is no disputing that the rapid growth of Robo-Advisors was realized against the backdrop of network effects made possible by the proliferation of smartphones and improvements in user interfaces. At the same time, it is pointed out that the “investment advice gap” and “pension crisis” – issues faced by developed countries where services capable of responding to pension issues are not available to the general public – also serve as the backdrop for their recent rapid growth.12 It is in this context that Robo-Advisors are expected to provide low-cost, high-quality services driven by techno- logical innovations, thereby ultimately contributing to the development of the capital market.13 ', '3. The Emergence of New Retail Investors ', 'In Japan, the typical profile of investors entering this new market is low-or middle-income workers in their 20s, 30s, or 40s with a relatively high level of IT literacy. With Japan’s aging population and shifting demographic structure, these generations are supporting Japan’s pension system, but they are worried about post-retirement life because they often do not understand the details of their pension benefits. It is fair to describe these investors as “consumers” who are forced to make investments and manage their own assets as part of their self-help efforts.14 In other words, they represent generations of individuals that are now expected to shift their assets from saving to investing as part of the government’s policy. These investors who make investments from their household financial assets do not fit the typical profile of an investor who can be expected to critically assess given information, instead, they are constituting a profile that has been accepted since the reform of the legal protection system for retail investors following the financial crisis (here we see the segmentation of retail investor profiles). Hence, these new investors are treated as “financial consumers” who require higher levels of protection,15 and in this respect, a certain overlap with the thinking behind consumer protection laws is recognized.16 ', 'The legal reforms undertaken to protect retail investors following the financial crisis focused on how to regulate investment advice. The aim of legal reform was to induce a shift away from the traditional investor protection system that emphasized processes based on the provision of infor- mation (the so-called “Informations-Modell” in Germany). Fundamental reform was implemented after information problems in terms of both quantity (information overload) and quality (conflicts of interest) became appar- ent, and a simple and comprehensive format to provide information was presented. In addition, the regulations have been strengthened in order to (i) improve the transparency of information to ensure comparisons between different financial products, (ii) fully enforce the prohibition of conflicts of interest, and (iii) disclose the risk of conflicts of interest. However, critics point out that such reforms will only increase compliance costs for financial firms, thus raising the threshold for investment advice services offered by human advisors and giving rise to the problem of “advice refugees”. This would mean that there is an increasing number of people who cannot enjoy investment advice from human advisors because they do not have enough assets to invest; nor do they have sufficient savings for their post-retirement lives, leaving them no alternative but to resort to pension benefits after retirement. Robo-Advisors can potentially respond to the social need for low-cost, good-quality investment advice services by cutting compliance costs through the digitization and automation of client management.17 ', 'II. REGULATORY CHALLENGES ', 'It is difficult to say the time is ripe to discuss how Robo-Advisors should be regulated. But there are some discussions and regulatory guidelines. Based on international and comparative research, there seem to be three key issues that should be discussed. ', '1. Sufficient Provision of Information? ', 'The feature that makes Robo-Advisors unique is the automation and online delivery of algorithm-based financial services, done with the aim of resolv- ing the risks associated with human involvement. ', 'For example, in the case of investment management type Robo-Advisors, machines make investment decisions on the clients’ behalf; thus, clients with little investment experience can avoid the risk of making emotional and irra- tional decisions. Similarly, this advantage presumably applies to the risk of conflicts of interest, which was one area of particular focus in recent legal reforms (as mentioned in I.3.). Human advisors who provide investment recommendations might be motivated by sales commissions or rebates, such that transactions involving human advice entail the risk of conflicting inter- ests (the risk of conflict between human advisors and their clients). It is gen- erally considered that the risk of conflict can be resolved by digitization. However, the risk of conflicts of interest between financial services firms and their clients cannot be resolved by automation; it is even suggested that if financial services firms intentionally develop algorithms that maximize their profits, the risk of conflicts of interest will be cemented, mass-produced, and eventually broadly spread. It is also pointed out that traditional securities companies providing Robo-Advisory services, which are not independent financial services firms, charge management fees in unclear ways.18 ', 'There is another problem. Since the automation of investment processes is carried out by machines, Robo-Advisory services are not free from what is called the “frame problem”.19 No matter how advanced the algorithm is, various assumptions are embedded in the automated Robo-Advisor, while some elements of reality are excluded in the process of developing a pro- gram. Therefore, Robo-Advisors have certain limitations. It is pointed out that financial services firms offering Robo-Advisory services need to ex- plain these limitations to their clients in advance20 as well as monitor the behavior of the machines.21 ', 'It is presumed that financial services firms are required to provide users of their automated services with information about the automation of these services, the features of the machines, the above-mentioned limitations, the risks involved in the transactions,22 and other necessary information. Spe- cifically, the following examples are generally cited as information that requires explanation: (i) the fact that algorithms are used to manage client accounts and the risks this involves; (ii) the functions of the algorithms; (iii) the assumptions and limitations of the algorithms; (iv) whether or not a third party is involved in developing and managing the algorithms (and the risk of conflicts of interest); (v) the degree of human involvement in man- aging and monitoring client accounts; (vi) the use of information collected from client profiles, and (vii) the restrictions on the use of client infor- mation.23 It could be said that the provision of this information by financial services firms and their obligation to explain potential investment risks are different in nature,24 meaning that the information listed above should be provided to service users as the specifications of the automated services. ', '2. Do You Know Your Clients? ', 'The Robo-Advisor uses algorithms to automatically process the data en- tered by the investor, and it then delivers an appropriate portfolio for that investor. To my knowledge, there have so far been no arguments to indicate that the services provided by Robo-Advisors are merely a reaction of the machine, and hence cannot be recognized as acts. Furthermore, although Robo-Advisors have reduced the cost of services due to online transactions, a decline in the level of protection afforded to customers (a limitation of the obligations of financial services firms), which is often the case with dis- count online brokers, is generally found to be inappropriate.25 Rather, the concern is “how can client-specific suitability assessments conducted in face-to-face transactions be appropriately implemented in non-face-to-face, online transactions?”26 In other words, although Robo-Advisory services are provided mechanically in non-face-to-face transactions, they are ex- pected to comply with the same rules as face-to-face transactions, meaning that Robo-Advice are subject to the principle of suitability (here we can see the principle of ”Same Business, Same Risk, Same Rule”, which I would like to term “the Same Rule Principle”27). Presumably, this is because an accurate understanding of the attributes and needs of Robo-Advisory ser-vice users is directly linked to the quality of Robo-Advisory services,28 and it should therefore be secured by regulations. ', 'The biggest challenge is how to respond to the problem of limited client in- formation available to Robo-Advisors as a result of non-face-to-face transac- tions. It cannot be overlooked that when the form of transaction changes from face-to-face to non-face-to-face, the primary party entering client infor- mation into the system also changes from the salesperson to the client.29 If a client enters false information and then seeks protection for losses incurred using the Robo-Advisory service, such protection would be rejected through estoppel and be a violation of the principle of good faith. One way of looking at this is to say that Robo-Advisor providers have an obligation to ensure the reliability and consistency of client information by taking reasonable and appropriate measures, such as notifying users in advance of any possible direct impact on their portfolios (i.e., before they answer the questions asked by Robo-Advisors), while investors are expected to provide all of the neces- sary and correct information that reflects their current situation.30 In addition, Robo-Advice providers need to be sufficiently creative in how they ask ques- tions (e.g., by providing supplementary explanations using pop-up boxes or tool-tips) so that service users can answer appropriately and Robo-Advisor providers can obtain enough information to conclude that the services they provide best meet the users’ needs.31 ', 'Furthermore, it is being discussed that in cases where support is given to clients when their answers are contradictory, or where clients are given an opportunity to change their answers after the outcomes are delivered by Robo-Advisors, accountability for the outcomes should be imposed on the automated service provider in order to prevent unreasonable judgments being made based on the clients’ decisions.32 ', '3. Establishment of a Structure to Satisfy System Functions ', 'As the provider of a system that mechanically processes the data entered by clients into investment advice, Robo-Advice providers are considered to owe a duty of care with respect to the entire establishment and management of the system, with the obligation to build a human and physical capital structure that is sufficient to secure the proper functioning of the system.33 ', 'But various details need to be put in place. As mentioned, since the fi- nancial crisis, there has been a tendency among various countries to strengthen their laws and regulations governing investment advisors. As far as the “machine” is concerned, the list includes developing, testing, and verifying (using past data) the algorithms; monitoring the algorithms after their introduction into the system (when incorrect advice is being caused by bugs or when the market is permeated with similar advice); supervising a third party subcontracted to develop the algorithm software; and maintain- ing information security.34 Moreover, one can add to the list: the manage- ment of clients’ portfolios at the “current stage”; the management of client attributes that might affect suitability assessments; and assuring transparen-cy in relation to the direct and indirect costs of the transactions. It is point- ed out that the automation and digitization of these compliance tasks have contributed to the growing popularity of Robo-Advisors.35 ', 'III. QUESTIONS FROM A LEGAL PERSPECTIVE ', 'In this section, based on Japanese Law, I would like to raise some questions in regard to the interpretation of regulatory rules and their implications in the context of private law. Before starting the discussion, let me briefly address several issues of concern. It is well known that most discussions and debates on the legal duties of financial firms serving retail investors have so far focused on the duty to provide explanations and the principle of suitability at the solicitation and sale stages of face-to-face transactions. On the other hand, in transactions in which services are offered without human intervention, i.e., transactions where humans are replaced by machines, how do these legal doctrines need to be further expanded and developed? ', 'In general, financial regulations in this area in Japan are established by focusing on the “business” carried out by financial firms, and I think it is worth pointing out that general provisions of private law are inevitably affected by the financial regulations in this field. Japanese private law be- longs to the civil law family (influenced by the German BGB and the French Code Civil), and is not of common law heritage, and we share the dualistic concept of public law and private law in principle. But there has been a very interesting development in investor protection law and a certain “inter-relationship” that has resulted in a number of bridges being built between regulation (public law) and civil rules (private law). For example, in the judgment of the Supreme Court of Japan, it is said that an extreme violation of the suitability principle could establish the “illegality” of the conduct of an employee of a financial services firm, which is one of the prerequisites of business tort liability.36 ', 'This issue cannot, however, be considered separately without a good grasp of the automated, machine-delivered “business” and the regulatory stance on Robo-Advice “services”. ', '1. Is the Principle of Suitability Not Applicable at All? ', 'Looking at regulatory framework, we have to consider that the suitability principle is stipulated as applying to “solicitation”. The Financial Instru-ments and Exchange Act (FIEA)37 of Japan stipulates that the principle of suitability is a rule regarding “solicitation” (Article 40(1) of the FIEA), so the question arises whether the use of Robo-Advisors constitutes “solicitation”. ', 'In general, “solicitation” means an invitation or inducement to enter into an agreement regarding financial products or services (“sale”) after a client has initiated communication with a financial services firm. In other words, “solicitation” is conducted on a one-to-one basis in relation to a particular product and affects the formation of decision-making. “Solicitation” is distinguished from “advertising” in that the latter targets many unspecified persons and provides them with general information. Items displayed on the internet target many unspecified persons, so unless an investor takes action (i.e., the act of visiting the website of a financial services firm), communi- cation does not start between the investor and the financial service provider (clients take the initiative in communication).38 Based on these points, some argue that “solicitation” is not generally recognized in internet transactions, but I disagree with this view.39 ', 'First, whether or not “solicitation” is conducted should be determined substantively in each case on the basis of the actual circumstances,40 and, needless to say, we should observe the actual use of Robo-Advisors careful- ly. In doing so, as discussed above, we need to recognize that Robo- Advisors are creating a new market and are different from existing non-face-to-face transactions, i.e., internet-exclusive companies engaged in spec- ulative transactions that offer simple services at cheap prices. Given the typical profile of an investor participating in this market, the details of the services Robo-Advisors provide, and the roles and functions that Robo- Advisors are expected to play socio-economically, I think this view should be affirmed. ', 'As discussed below, I believe the principle of suitability detailed here should be understood as a fiduciary duty, on whose basis we should deter- mine whether Robo-Advisors are “performing their services in the best interests of clients.”41 ', '2. Advice Type: Are ‘Free’ Services Incidental to ‘Brokerage Business’? ', 'For this question, I would like to raise a question with reference to a model scenario for an advice-type Robo-Advisor.42 ', 'Model Scenario for Advice-Type Robo-Advisor ', '(1) After an investor answers some questions on the internet, the Robo- Advisor proposes the portfolio best suited to the investor; ', '(2) The investor purchases shares in an index funds according to the proposed portfolio; and ', '(3) Subsequently, the Robo-Advisor periodically reports to the investor on the status of asset management, and when the investor becomes aware that the portfolio has drifted away from its intended target consistent with the investor’s long-term, diversified investment plan (glide path), the investor terminates the contract with one click and purchases shares of a new fund according to the proposed review plan.43 ', 'Before I go into greater detail, let me state my conclusion first: It is highly unlikely that FIEA’s provisions regarding “investment advisory business” (including Articles 41 and 41-2 of the FIEA) apply to the advice in the model scenario set out above.44 ', 'My interpretation of the regulatory rules is as follows: Since the deliv- ered portfolio itself does not contain any description of the value of the specific stocks and is offered as a free-of-charge assessment tool, the activi- ty described by (1) in the model scenario does not constitute “investment advisory business”, and it is merely “incidental to” brokerage services as described by (2) (see Articles 35 (1) (viii) of the FIEA). ', 'If the above interpretations are correct, most of the activities in (1) and (3) of the model scenario – the activities that investors consider to be the essen- tial part of Robo-Advisory services – can be regarded under the law as free- of-charge services incidental to the transaction described in (2). It is here, in my view, that a “discrepancy between the law and reality (customers’ reli- ance)”45 can be found, and I wonder if I am the only one who sees that dis- crepancy. In Europe, following regulatory reform (MiFID-II), financial services firms are required to unbundle fees for execution of client orders from fees for investment advices in order to ensure transparency, and inci- dental services without charge are not permitted.46 I believe this is worth referring to when considering regulations on Robo-Advisors in Japan. ', 'Moreover, in the latter part of (3) in the model scenario, the termination of the fund contract and the purchase of new fund shares are carried out by the investor. But if the investor finds these procedures cumbersome and makes arrangements for the transactions to be conducted automatically, those transactions would constitute “investment management business.”47 In addition, financial firms offering advice-type services also provide ser- vices that are close to investment management-type services in light of their user-centered design. Given this reality, the role played by “fiduciary du- ties”48 can be viewed as very significant in Japan.49 ', '3. Management Type: Wrong AI Decisions as a Breach of the Duty of Care? ', 'Next let me discuss how to establish the breach of the legal duty of care owed by a prudent manager when a customer incurs a loss due to a materially irrational decision by AI: ', 'It could be said that the issue here concerns a breach of the duty of care owed by a prudent manager at an investment management firm. In Japan, two court decisions should be referred to as precedents, and in these cases the two courts took different approaches in determining whether or not there was a breach of the prudent manager duty of care. In one case the court focused on the investment decisions relative to the entire investment strategy but in the other on the individual investment decisions. ', 'In regard to Robo-Advisors, the Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies (IMES), which is a part of the Bank of Japan, recommends the former interpretation in its September 2018 report.50 Particularly worthy of note here are the legal grounds, which sit well not only with the interpretation under American law (the “mother law”), but also with the nature of algorithms and AI. The report took into account the fact that “algorithms or AI use the probability theory-based method to make investment decisions on the ground of correlations between two or more facts that cannot be recognized by humans, and that have the potential to generate more profits than humans in terms of the entire portfolio.” ', 'This is related to the phenomenon known as the “black-box problem” inherent in machine-made decisions in which one option is recommended over other options. If in theory artificial intelligence has evolved from the “black-box” to the “white-box” – which according to one artificial intelli- gence researcher is the direction in which artificial intelligence is heading – the possibility of choosing the other options cannot be eliminated. ', 'And according to the 2018 report, the answer to this question relates to the appropriateness of standards in investment decision-making. ', 'But the mere fact that machine-made decisions can be beyond human comprehension should not suffice to establish a breach of the duty of care. We rather have to examine if it was reasonable to use algorithms or AI for the investment decisions, and it is here that we can make a reference to the duty to ensure the functioning of the system. ', 'But this raises another point to consider: There might be other reasons for irrational investment decisions. If the suitability check focuses on very limited information about the profile of the customer, the Robo-Advisor could recommend a portfolio which is not suitable for him or her. And there is a possibility of the system’s vendor being liable where the AI was not functioning properly. But for a customer it is extremely difficult to know the reason. ', '4. Could Disclaimer\u200a/\u200aSafe Harbor Clauses Preserve Validity?: The Platform Liability Discussion ', 'There is a tendency among Robo-Advisors to use disclaimers that state the advice they provide is a general investment recommendation – and not per- sonalized advice tailored to the clients’ individual needs – so as to prevent the advice they provide from being viewed as subject to regulations.51 I see this as an issue of the Same Rule Principle. Specifically, I suggest that the following questions be asked first: “Are a financial firm’s services being offered as part of its ‘business?’” and “Are the legal norms governing that business mandatory provisions of the law?” ', 'Yet, as is often the case with FinTech services, the details of Robo- Advisory services are unclear, and it is difficult to indicate which service applies to which “business”. Furthermore, as mentioned before, “solicita- tion” requires substantive interpretation on a case-by-case basis in light of the individual circumstances. If so, a disclaimer could be seen as a one-sided provision detrimental to clients, allowing financial services firms to pass on to clients the adverse effects caused by a lack of transparency regarding the laws and regulations their services must comply with.52 In other countries, instances are seen where the effect of such a disclaimer is rejected in financial regulation guidelines.53 Such an approach can be understood in this context. It seems to me that it is time for Japan to address this issue as a regulatory civil law matter and develop a theory on the proper interpretation of contrac- tual clauses, even if establishing financial regulations remains out of reach. ', 'IV. CONCLUSION ', '1. The Meaning of Same Rule Principle ', 'At least at the current stage, the international trend in financial regulatory approaches to Robo-Advisors, where the services provided by Robo- Advisors are the same as those provided by human advisors, seems to be that Robo-Advisors must, in principle, be subject to the same rules as human advisors (the Same Rule Principle).54 This is probably because, unlike areas where the competitive advantage of machines over humans is clear, such as high-frequency trading (HFT), when we look at the services that Robo-Advisors provide, we see that humans and machines use their respec- tive qualities to compete against each other.55 In other words, the Same Rule Principle means the promotion of quality/price competition in respect of customer-oriented services. ', '2. The Challenge of Establishing Fiduciary Duties in the Era of Automated Technology ', 'I will conclude with a few comments on the theme of “Asset Building and Management in an Aging Society”. ', 'As Japan’s population decreases and life expectancy continues to rise, we are now living in an aging society where people often live to 100. ', 'Against this backdrop, financial services firms urgently need to adopt social science perspectives that incorporate financial gerontology in order to improve their capabilities to respond to today’s ever-changing society and to create a new business environment.56 It is expected that people’s needs for asset management will diversify and that an increasing number of people will be interested not only in building up their assets through “long-term, installment and diversified” investments (accumulation), but also in how to best optimize their assets after retirement (decumulation). Indeed, we are now seeing more diversification in financial products and services in this area consistent with people’s changing lifestyles. Furthermore, with our rapidly aging society facing many uncertainties, including the “pension crisis”57 and health risks associated with aging (as the Financial Services Agency has pointed out), people feel a strong need for “advisors who are able to offer comprehensive advice that is in the best interest of clients according to their life stage, including the formulation of financial plans”.58 However, unlike in the US where independent financial advisors are widely recognized and accepted, most people in Japan do not have access to such advisors – even if they exist. ', 'Taking these factors in account, and even though it will present chal- lenges, I would like to suggest that automated advice services can very much be expected to play an increasing role in this field of decumulation through the utilization of Robo-Advisors that offer low-cost but high-quality asset management services to a wider range of investors, as it is happening in the US.59 Thus the question we face is: “Who should play a role in providing financial services to support Japan’s socio-economic sys- tem – humans or machines?” '] | [
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d1df288b9b8ad755157f7e2fe8ec9146d9a5a234c35098913aba24ba33eb2cb3 | Aging crisis causes extinction | null | Ivaylo Vladev & Rositsa Vladeva 20, Konstantin Preslavsky University of Shumen, Faculty of Natural Sciences, “The Demographic Problem - One of the Main Problems of Contemporary,” Acta Scientifica Naturalis, vol. 7, no. 2, Sciendo, 07/01/2020, pp. 158–171 | demographic s a factor for existence of civilization are wide and create hazards for society leading the global problems of our time influence peace international security health and education resources for societies Decreasing due to aging and shortage of labour cause social problems demographic bombs affect water, food, energy, raw materials as well as environment and climate resolving problem s of future gen s | The aim of the present study is to highlight the place of the demographic problem a s a factor for the existence of civilization global problems are wide ranging and continually create hazards for the existence of human society The demographic problem is leading among the global problems of our time , because its emergence and solving influence the preservation of the world peace problems of international security health care and education Demographic problem s arise in the reproduction of the population and the level of resources for the development of humanity and of individual peoples and societies Decreasing population in a particular geographic region or country forms the situation of a demographic crisis due to low birth rates average mortality aging negative or zero natural growth and shortage of labour resources will cause irreversible negative social and economical problems and demographic crises especially for Japan This process is called „demographic winter “. Many countries in the world are characterized by demographic stagnation . Its typical feature is maintaining the constant population. The actual growth is zero or around zero. This demographic situation is formed at and is characteristic for countries on different stages of demographic transition and different levels of socio-economic development. Problems related to the dynamics of the human population affect the whole world There are countries with decreasing birth rates and increasing life expectancy The aging population leads to higher healthcare and pensions costs , and the number of workers and tax payers is steadily decreasing. As a result, these countries are at risk to become „ demographic bombs “ which means a crisis a demographic crisis that affect development income employment social security health care education and the sources of water, food, energy, raw materials as well as environment al conditions and climate change Stabilizing the population of our planet and resolving the demographic problem i s not an end in itself but a means of improving the lives of future gen eration s | demographic s a factor existence of civilization global problems wide ranging hazards existence human society demographic leading global problems of our time influence preservation of the world peace international security health care education Demographic s resources societies Decreasing crisis birth rates mortality aging labour resources irreversible negative social and economical problems demographic crises especially Japan winter demographic stagnation dynamics of the human population whole world decreasing birth rates life expectancy aging population healthcare pensions costs demographic bombs crisis crisis development income employment social security health care education water, food, energy, raw materials environment climate change Stabilizing resolving the demographic problem s future gen s | ['The aim of the present study is to analyze the essential features of the global problems of the contemporary stage in the development of human society and to highlight the place of the demographic problem as an objective factor for the existence of modern civilization.', 'To realize the goal it clarifies the criteria for determining a problem as a global one and makes classification of the global problems from a geographic point of view. It identifies the causes for the demographic problem, analyses and specifies its different dimensions at the global, regional and national levels.', 'Materials and Methods', 'In order to study the processes of globalization and the specific features of the demographic problem, comparative analysis, content analysis and quantitative methods are applied. In order to clarify the criteria for determining a given problem as a global one, methods of systematization and classification from a geographic point of view are applied.', 'Results and Discussion', 'One of the essential characteristics of the modern development of the society is its globalization. It is known as international integration on a large scale in all areas of economics, culture and society. The processes of globalization should be explored in the context of the relationship of the planetary problems with some aspects of economic and social life on a global, regional and national level [2].', 'Globalization is a complex process that provokes many controversies, but also determines the overarching changes in our times. According to U. Bek, „globalization is certainly the most commonly used - the wrongly used - and the most rarely defined, probably the most vague, the most fuzzy and the most politically influential word in the last but also in the coming years“ [1, p. 42]. Most researchers regard globalization as an inevitable process of forming common principles of current civilization development and common criteria for the qualitative assessment of the development.', 'We can therefore accept globalization as a complex integrative process, characterized by the following main features:', '- universality - a tendency towards integration of all economic, social, political, cultural, environmental and demographic processes in their entirety and interdependence;', '- democracy - engaging and actively participating in the process of globalization of all social strata;', '- spontaneity - absence of an external source as a special moderator;', '- chaoticity - inconsistency of the ongoing integration processes and presence of random fluctuations.', 'Globalization is a phenomenon, but it is not an ideal process as well as its results and it affects differently individuals, social communities, countries, regions, and the planet as a whole. It has its positive and negative consequences, encompassing socio-economic, demographic, natural-geographic processes, transforming human relationships into a state of globality.', 'Globality as a problem is also associated with the global problems of civilization. During its development the human society frequently encounters complex problems originating from its local nature and cover significant parts of the globe. According to P. Lakov, „the global problems are provoked by the chronological unity and the rapid rate of destruction of the balance between nature and society and should therefore be considered as an undivided system of dynamically changing interdependent phenomena in the space“ [3, p. 24].', 'The global problems of the contemporary stage of the development of the world civilization are already fully manifested in the second half of the 20th century, but from the end of the 1990s to the present day as a result of the introduction of the new information and communication technologies and the enhanced processes of economic and political integration a kind of „globalization boom“is observed. Therefore, the studying of the global problems is necessary to take into account both the general patterns and trends in the development of the world economy, as well as the action of the social factors of development, including the rapid growth of the population of the planet, the strengthening of interaction and interdependence between states.', "According to their origin, the global problems are the result of the processes of globalization that are taking place in today's world and play the role of drivers for the development of the world system. Because they arise from the functioning of the global systems and their interaction, they can not be considered in isolation, but their unity and interrelation must be taken into account.", 'The global problems are wide ranging and continually create hazards for the existence and development of human society. The world of the 21st century inherited from the 20th century poverty, economic problems, resource shortages, mass diseases and nationalism and religious fanaticism, dozens of „hot spots“ and international terrorism. The old dangers in the form of weapons of mass destruction are complemented by new ones.', 'Though diverse in nature, the global problems have a common specificity that separates them from the other processes and phenomena in world development and they are distinguished by certain features:', '- they endanger the future of all human civilization;', '- they are an objective factor for the world development;', '- targeted and coordinated actions of much of humanity are needed to overcome them;', '- failure to resolve them can lead to serious and irreversible consequences for the whole of humanity. Some authors believe that the global problems are the result of the following inconsistencies:', '- between the unlimited production factors entering the system „technically“ and the limited reproduction capabilities of the system of nature;', '- between the „industrial“ system widely used in the technics and the other „small craft“ and „,partly craft“ system under the name „human“;', '- between the unique products of the „classical culture“ and the unrestricted circulation of „mass culture“ products;', '- between the global balances according to which the stability of processes in nature and society depends on the degree of their balance [4, p. 280-281].', 'The territorial character of the global problems could be pointed out as their specific feature. Geographically they cover the whole of the world, but at the same time they are manifested at the regional level as well, with local indications in different countries. This proves the relationship between the categories: „common“(global) – „special“(regional) – „individual“(local).', 'In order not to identify the public, regional and local problems with global ones, it is necessary to specify criteria that can define a given problem as a global one (Figure 1). ', '[FIGURE 1 OMITTED]', 'It should be noted that these criteria together can only establish the global nature of a given problem, because each of them can not be a decisive factor. At the same time, we must emphasize the high dynamism of every global problem caused by the combination of many different factors and their state in specific historical conditions and geographic regions.', 'There is a wide variety of views regarding the classification of global problems: depending on their severity, the time of their emergence, their nature, the actual real dependencies between them, the sequence of decision-making to overcome them, etc. Their grouping according to certain attributes helps to identify the existing links, to specify the priorities, to determine the degree of exacerbation of objectively existing global problems and to rank the sequence of the actions for their solution.', 'In order to realize the purpose of the study and to clarify the essence of the global problems, an attempt was made to create a geographical classification. Without claiming to be exhaustive, we formulate fourteen global problems on the basis of their relevance, severity and importance. They are grouped into three large groups depending on the spheres in which they appear and prove the trinity of nature – man – society. Accordingly, the groups are geodemographic, population-related; natural-geographic, arising from the components of the natural environment and socio-economic, related to the economy, the social sphere, the culture, the social development (Figure 2).', 'Based on the classification, the following conclusions can be made:', '- Global problems increase their number and sphere of manifestation;', '- The greatest number of global problems (1/2 of all classified) occurs in the contact areas of interaction;', '- Regardless of the conditional and relative nature of the proposed classification, the occurrence of the global problems is in close interdependence and interrelation;', '- Most of the global problems has a complex nature because they occur under the influence of two (3, 4, 6, 8) or three main groups (2, 5, 7);', '- Due to their complex nature the global problems require a system of comprehensive measures to resolve them.', 'From these examples it can be summarized that the assignment of one or another problem to a given group is conditional and depends on the criteria of partitioning, the degree of relevance of the individual problems and the regional view of the authors on them. Therefore, the proposed classification should be seen not as a definitive solution to the issue but as a possible way of reconstructing the complex system, helping to better understand the essence of the interrelations between the global problems.', '[FIGURE 2 OMITTED]', '1. Demographic', '2. Food-related', '3. Healthcare problems', '4. Educational problems', '5. Preservation of world peace', '6. Problems of international security', '7. Ecological', '8. Depletion of natural resources', '9. Global warming', '10. Water-related', '11. Global catastrophes and natural disasters', '12. Socio-economic conflict between poor and rich countries', '13. Social inequality', '14. Spiritual and moral crisis of humanity', 'Every global problem should be seen from three main points: what is the present situation, where, how and why the situation has become dangerous and how we can try to change it for the better by applying different strategies. The choice and the decision depend to a great extent on the social-ethical and moralhumanistic norms created in society, which is also the goal of its development [5, p. 12].', 'It is known that the problem is a scientific or public issue that has to be investigated and solved. It is caused by a certain inconsistency in the course of a natural, social or demographic process, the carrying out of some human activity and the lack of the expected result.', 'The demographic problem is a leading among the global problems of our time, because its emergence and solving influence the solution of food problems, the environmental problem, the preservation of the world peace, the problems of the international security, the health care and the education.', 'Demographic problems arise in the reproduction of the population and the level of compliance of resources for the development of humanity and of individual peoples and societies. The main criterion for assessing the course of demographic processes is the ability to carry out normal and appropriate reproduction of the population according to the conditions and resources. Demographic development is not limited only to the process of increasing the number of inhabitants of the planet, but also includes the problems of increasing population in relation to the natural resource potential of the territory, the condition and quality of the environment, hindering the food supply of the population, urbanization, inter-ethnic relations, refugees, lack of employment. All this proves that the interrelations between demography, economy and politics are complex and multilayered.', 'Therefore, the demographic problem is the mismatch between the level of socio-economic development, the resource availability for the economy, food and commodity production and population growth. Generally speaking, the demographic problem is that the population is rapidly growing due to the high fertility rate and life expectancy, the shortage of natural resources and production capacities for food and consumer goods.', 'Today, the effects of relative and absolute population growth become so topical that they are becoming a global problem. The dynamics of population growth in the world, presented in Table 1, is very distinctive.', 'The point of 1 billion is exceeded at the beginning of the 19 century. While the first doubling after 1810 required 110 years, the second one was in 40 years (1920 – 1960), the third one in 14 years (1960 – 1974) and the last one in 12 years (1999 – 2011). For the last 18 years, the population has increased by more than 1.5 billion and 94.5% of the growth is in the developing countries and only 5.5% of the developed ones. At the end of 2017, the world population reached 7.5 billion.', '[TABLE 1 OMITTED]', 'The rate of population growth is the rate at which demographic indicators change. The highest rates of population growth in the world occurred in the 1970s and 1980s – about 2% average annual growths. Then they began to decline and in the first decades of the 21st century they were set at 1.2%. It is expected that in the middle of the 21st century they will increase again to 2.8%.', 'According to estimates of UN experts, the world population by 2025 will reach 8.2 billion, by 2040 – 9.2 billion, by 2050 – 9.7 billion and by 2055 – almost 10 billion. Population growth, according to the expected trends for this period, will be formed by developing countries in a ratio of 97: 3.', 'Much or little is the present world population of 7.5 billion people? The world population itself, however significant, can not be considered as large or little, isolated from the natural and human resources and the established political and socio-economic conditions.', 'Scientists maintain two different opinions and carry on intensive discussions. Some of them believe that the Earth is still far from absolute overpopulation and unlikely to reach it. Another part of them believe that the Earth is already overpopulated. Reason for this opinion is the misery, malnutrition and hunger, avalanche escalation of environmental problems in overpopulated areas.', 'Very often, population growth is seen as one of the factors not only hindering the fulfilment of life needs, but also threatening the viability of human civilization. Together with the increased consumption of natural resources, technical and energy equipment, the amount of waste resulting from human life and production activity is constantly increasing. Moreover, the socio-demographic situation in developed and developing countries is diametrically opposed, denoted by the term „demographic division of the world“.', 'In different countries and regions, the demographic problem has different dimensions. In developed countries, the demographic problem is mainly reflected in the aging of the population and the reduction of human resources for the economic development of the countries. In developing countries, the demographic problem is reflected in a predominant increase of the population to the basic necessities of life and the occurrence of significant difficulties in feeding the population, its health care and the development of education. The extent and the nature of the demographic problem in individual countries depend to a large extent on their socio-economic development and the stage of the demographic transition they are on. At a regional and national level, demographic problems, depending on the type of reproduction of the population, have different dimensions – demographic explosion, demographic stagnation and demographic crisis. Human development across individual regions and countries is assessed through the two problems – a demographic explosion and a demographic crisis.', 'The rapid increase in population in the world, in a particular geographic region or in a particular country is defined as a demographic explosion. It is characterized by a high birth rate, a sharp drop in mortality, and especially child mortality and increased life expectancy. This is an unfavourable demographic situation because it reduces the opportunities for most people to feed, the opportunities for health care, education, jobs, etc.', "The accelerated growth of the world population is now predominantly determined by the developing countries. Due to the high relative share of the population at sub-working age (1/4 of the population up to 16 years old) these countries will preserve the high growth rate of their population. Demographic explosion has a restraining effect on the country and region's development prospects. It is characteristic for the most countries in Africa, some countries in Asia and Latin America. At present the epicentre of the demographic explosion is in Africa.", 'High birth rate is the main prerequisite for triggering the demographic explosion. It, under the conditions of decreasing mortality, ensures the large population growth. The most significant birth rates occur in the continent of Africa and mostly in the West, Central, East and partially in South Africa.', 'In 2017, 43 African countries had birth rates above 30‰. The highest figures are in Niger (50‰), Chad (48‰), Angola (46‰), Democratic Republic of Congo (46‰), Central African Republic (45‰), Mozambique (45‰), Mali (44‰), Somalia (44‰), Burkina Faso (44‰), Burundi (43‰), Zambia (43‰) and others. The countries in Asia are with high birth rates too. 5 of them have a birth rate above 30‰: the Democratic Republic of Timor – Leste (36‰), Afghanistan (34‰), Yemen (33‰), Tajikistan (33‰), Iraq (31‰); and in 34 of them the birth rate is between 20 and 30‰. Haiti, Bolivia, Guyana and Guatemala in Latin America have a birth rate of between 25 and 30‰.', 'The decreasing overall mortality is the second most important prerequisite for the demographic explosion. It is mainly due to the development of healthcare and medicine and to the raising living standards of the population. Under this influence is the mortality rate in most European countries, East Asia, North America, the Gulf region (Oman, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia). Decreasing mortality rate in these countries leads to an increased average life expectancy and aging of the population. The lower mortality rate in a number of countries is due to the age structure of the population with a strong predominance of younger generations (25-30% of the population up to 16 years old) and is denoted by the term „demographic spring“. This applies to most African countries.', 'The mortality rate is in close relation with the average life expectancy. The latter grows almost continuously. This is due to the increased living standards, the way of life and the improvement of health care.', 'According to UN data in 2017, the expected average life expectancy in the world is 69 years, for men 67 years and for women 71 years [6]. The highest average life expectancy is in the developed countries: Monaco (89.4 years), Japan (85.5 years), Singapore (85.5 years), Iceland (83.1 years), Israel (82.7), Switzerland (82.7), Malta (82.7 years), the Republic of Korea (82.5 years), the Australian Union (82.4 years), Italy (82.4 years), Luxembourg (82.4 years) and others.', 'Geographical regions with the highest average life expectancy are Western Europe and North America. For men, life expectancy is the highest in Monaco (85.5 years), Singapore (82.8 years), Japan (82.2 years) and Iceland (80.9 years). Women have the highest life expectancy in Monaco (93.4 years), Japan (89 years), Singapore (88.3 years) and Republic of Korea (85.8 years). The lowest life expectancy is in the poor African and Asian developing countries, such as Mozambique (54.1 years), the Central African Republic (53.3 years), Somalia (53.2 years), Zambia (53 years), Lesotho (53 years) and Afghanistan (52.1 years). Decreasing child mortality in developing countries and the high birth rates have an impact on the population growth and hence on the demographic explosion. At the end of the 20th century, child mortality in the world was about 54‰ and in 2017 it declined to 32.9‰. Thus, while in 2000 the continent with the highest child mortality rate in the world, Africa, it ranged from 87‰ (West Africa) to 140‰ (Central and Eastern Africa), in 2017 there was no African country with child mortality over 100‰.', 'Today, it varies in a wide range from 20 to 93‰ and decreases as a result of measures to combat diseases, hunger and malnutrition and to improve healthcare. Over the last decades, the child mortality rates in Arab countries rapidly decrease, especially in the Persian Gulf region (below 8‰), where it has reached the level of the most developed countries.', 'Analyzing the demographic situation in the world in the context of the demographic explosion, we should note that the larger population has a stronger impact on the environment and increases the „demographic burden“ on the territory.', 'It is simultaneously influenced by several factors: the absolute population growth, the extent of consumption (lifestyle, income, and infrastructure development), the social inequality of the population, and the level of technology used. The development of the modern economy requires the use of an increasing amount of natural resources. The acuteness of the problem is related not only to the depletion of the limited resources, but also with the nature of their impact on the environment during use. The increase of the population in the world and its migration intensify this impact by preventing the stabilization of the unemployment problem; make it difficult to solve the problems of education, healthcare and social welfare. Consequently, any socio-economic problem includes a demographic problem as well.', 'Decreasing the population in a particular geographic region or country forms the situation of a demographic crisis. It is due to low birth rates, average mortality rates, aging of the population, negative or zero natural growth and shortage of labour resources.', 'As a global problem it is still considered the demographic explosion, not paying due attention to the upcoming demographic problems as depopulation, narrowed reproduction of the population and its aging, which will cause irreversible negative social and economical problems and demographic crises, especially among the small nations.', 'The aging of the population forms an unfavourable demographic situation, consisting in increasing the number and relative share of people in over-working age, reducing the number of people in sub-working age and limiting the labour resources. It is especially distinctive for most countries in Europe, Japan and others.', 'The aging of the population is characterized by the average age of the population (a characteristic of the age structure of the population, which is calculated as a weighted average value of the population in all age groups). It reveals the level reached in the process of population aging in the world and countries.', 'In 2017, the average age of the population in the world is 30.6 years. It ranges from a low age of 15.5 to 16 years in the African countries of Niger, Mali, Chad, Uganda and Angola up to 43 years or more in some European countries and Japan. The countries with high living standards and high life expectancy have the highest average age like Monaco (53.8 years), Japan (47.7 years), Germany (47.4 years) and Italy (45.8 years). The high average age is a feature of countries with a very high level of emigration of young people, such as Slovenia (44.2 years), Lithuania (44), Latvia (43.9 years), Croatia (43.3 years), Bulgaria (43 years), Estonia (43 years) and others [6].', 'Thus, the relative share of the population in over-working age in 2025 in these countries will account for over 1/4 of the total population, which will cause significant losses for health care and social security. At the same time, the birth rate in most economically developed countries can no longer provide for simple reproduction of the population. This process is called „demographic winter“.', 'The phenomenon of the demographic crisis is primarily centred on the countries of Eastern Europe and is not yet typical for the developed countries. It becomes topical to the researchers of the population from the mid-1990s when the most unfavourable parameters of the demographic situation are reached – very low birth rates, high total mortality and high mortality in the individual age groups, old age structure, emigration, high unemployment, etc. About 80% of the natural population growth of the EU member states since 1994 is due to emigrants. According to demographic projections, almost all countries in Europe are expected to be covered by a demographic crisis in 2025.', "The demographic crisis has its strongest manifestations in countries like Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Hungary, Romania, Croatia and others. It is due to the negative natural growth and mass emigration of young population to Western Europe and North America. The term „demographic crisis“ can be interpreted as a profound violation of reproduction of the population. In 2017, Lithuania (14.8‰), Bulgaria (14.5‰) and Latvia (14.5‰) are at the top of the world's highest mortality rates, followed by Ukraine (14.3‰), Serbia (13.6‰), Belarus (13.2‰) and others. The lowest birth rates are in Japan (7.5‰), Puerto Rico (8‰), Portugal (8.2‰), Greece (8.3‰), Bulgaria (8.5‰) 5‰), Germany (8.6‰).", 'Since the beginning of the 21st century, the continent of Europe has a negative natural growth, with the highest negative figures being in Bulgaria (-6‰), Lithuania (-5‰), Latvia (-4.9‰), Serbia (-4, 7‰), Ukraine (-4.2‰), Hungary (-3.9‰), Croatia (-3.6‰). Thus, due to the low birth rates and high mortality, there is a disruption of the normal reproduction of human generations. The demographic crisis naturally reduces the population of a given country or region to a different extent, with a severe disruption of the basic demographic structures.', 'The demographic crisis is characterized by the fact that the real growth (the total value of the natural and mechanical growth) of the population in these countries is negative and forms a reduction of the population. In 2017, the reduction of the population is most pronounced in Lithuania (-11.1‰), Latvia (- 11‰), Moldova (-10.8‰), Bulgaria (-6.3‰), Estonia (-6‰), Croatia (-5.3‰), Serbia (-4.7‰), Ukraine (- 4.2‰), Romania (-3.5‰), Montenegro (-3.4‰), Hungary (-2.6‰), Belarus (-2.5‰) and others. The reduction of the population in each of these countries is not only related to higher mortality rates and lower birth rates but also to the significant emigration rates. The demographic crisis exists in Puerto Rico (-16‰) and Lebanon (-11.3‰) and the European countries Germany, Poland, Italy, Portugal, Greece are entering the crisis as well as Japan in Asia.', 'Many countries in the world are characterized by demographic stagnation. Its typical feature is maintaining the constant population. The actual growth is zero or around zero. This demographic situation is formed at and is characteristic for countries on different stages of demographic transition and different levels of socio-economic development. This group includes mainly developed countries with almost zero natural growth and a positive mechanical population growth, such as Austria, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Finland, Spain and others.', 'The indicated negative trends in population development cover all developed and highly developed countries. The consequences for the society and the demographic systems in the developed countries are similar, but they vary in intensity over time. As the demographic crisis in these countries is largely blunted by immigration and increasing the average life expectancy.', 'Conclusions', 'Based on the report we can formulate the following results:', '- The processes in the globalizing world are generating the global problems of today. They act as driving forces in the development of the world system.', '- On the basis of their relevance and significance, in order to prove the trinity of nature – man – society, fourteen global problems are formulated in three large groups, depending on the spheres in which they manifest.', '- Problems related to the dynamics of the human population affect the whole world and in some parts of the planet there is overpopulation, which can lead to depletion of natural resources as well as poverty and malnutrition.', '- Global efforts to resolve the global demographic problem are contrary to the interest of countries that have unfavourable demographics including Bulgaria.', '- There are countries with decreasing birth rates and increasing life expectancy everywhere in the world. The aging population leads to higher healthcare and pensions costs, and the number of workers and tax payers is steadily decreasing. As a result, these countries are at risk to become „demographic bombs“ which means a crisis due to too few people working.', '- The demographic picture of the world is highly contrasting and moves between the two extremes - a demographic explosion and a demographic crisis. The factors that determine it affect the socio-economic development, income distribution, employment, unemployment, social security, health care, education, housing and the sources of water, food, energy, raw materials as well as environmental conditions and climate change.', '- Stabilizing the population of our planet and resolving the demographic problem in the future is not an end in itself but a means of improving the lives of the present and future generations.'] | [
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6c5db47fdc7fe02c12ea9ebdc030c679b9918c7534dec6a8e905710285938f29 | AI-based investors can channel capital to dark horse startups. | null | Ricardo Costa Climent & Darek M. Haftor 22, Climent is Doctor Cum Laude in Economics and Business Management from the Catholic University of Valencia San Vicente Mártir; Haftor is a professor of information systems and an expert in digital business models, productivity gains from digitalisation and the digital transformation of organisations at Uppsala University, “Financing Start-Ups Through Artificial Intelligence,” Financing Startups: Understanding Strategic Risks, Funding Sources, and the Impact of Emerging Technologies, edited by Carlos Lassala and Samuel Ribeiro-Navarrete, Springer International Publishing, 2022, pp. 149–162 Springer Link, doi:10.1007/978-3-030-94058-4_9 | use of AI to support start-ups helps avoid financial failures essential in any market Entrepreneurship is key of economic development and innovation However requires external funding financing has changed massively thanks to tech The present is a revolution in FinTech such as robo-advisors creating assessment using sophisticated data without human assessment, which entails bias or error With AI FinTech industries shape the new ecosystem and use cross-cutting innovation and create replicable business models disruptive development leads to rapid growth Start-ups require investment to start development of AI by banks gives start-ups support thus growing and acquiring knowledge | the use of AI by investors and funders to support the most relevant start-ups through m l which helps avoid financial failures , or by offering tools for start-ups has become an essential issue in any market Entrepreneurship is a key driver of economic development , employment and innovation However , new firm creation requires external funding . Start-up financing has changed massively in recent years thanks to tech developments The present era is witnessing a major revolution in the financial system driven by FinTech such as robo-advisors this automation of financial markets is creating an assessment -based model using sophisticated objective data without direct human assessment, which inevitably entails some bias or error With the rise of AI in FinTech industries it is important to work with governments to develop laws to shape and adapt to the new ecosystem . A change of mindset is needed and Start-ups develop a product or service that provides value They use cross-cutting innovation and create replicable business models Such firms collaborate informally create a disruptive development , which ultimately leads to rapid growth seed capital is the predominant form of funding, later being replaced by venture capital Start-ups generally initially require a small investment This is used to start the business. If it is successful and generates revenue, financial support is then sought from a business angel The forms of start-up financing include accelerators, business angels, venture capital, crowdfunding and seed capital examples show the development of AI by banks gives start-ups support from these banks . It provides added value because employees can learn from the start-ups, thus growing and acquiring knowledge | AI investors funders support most relevant start-ups m l financial failures tools start-ups essential issue any market Entrepreneurship key driver economic development employment innovation creation external funding financing changed massively in recent years tech developments major revolution FinTech robo-advisors automation assessment -based model sophisticated objective data human bias error AI FinTech governments laws new ecosystem change of mindset Start-ups value cross-cutting innovation replicable business models collaborate informally disruptive development rapid growth initially small investment start business examples AI banks gives start-ups support from these banks added value employees learn growing acquiring knowledge | ['1 Artificial Intelligence in Start-Up Financing', 'To define the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the financing of start-ups, we must differentiate between two contexts. The first is the financing of technological start-ups based on AI, which is a priority for investors in financing because of both its innovative nature and the benefit it entails for organisations. The second context is the use of AI by investors and funders to support the most relevant start-ups, either through machine learning, which helps avoid financial failures, or by offering excellent tools for start-ups. Both contexts show the influence of the emergence of AI in all sectors and reflect how the versatility of AI has become an essential issue in any market.', 'Entrepreneurship is a key driver of economic development, employment and innovation (Schumpeter, 1942). However, new firm creation often requires external funding. Start-up financing has changed massively in recent years thanks to technological developments and the possibilities they offer.', 'The present era is witnessing a major revolution in the financial system. This revolution is driven by technology (FinTech) through tools such as crowdfunding, big data, blockchain, robo-advisors and digital payments (Arslanian & Fischer, 2019). Some claim that this automation of the financial markets is creating an assessment-based model using analytical, sophisticated and objective data. For example, the creditworthiness of borrowers can be analysed without direct human assessment, which inevitably entails some degree of bias or error (OECD, 2018).', 'Recent years have witnessed the creation of new companies for which technology is a core part of their business models. This integration lets users optimise their resources and produces consumer satisfaction. For companies such as Facebook, Uber, WhatsApp and Airbnb, user finance is part of the business. For instance, Facebook users in the United States can transfer money through the Messenger app. Similarly, Amazon now offers U.S. students credit via its app. In China, WeChat and Alibaba have together created one of the largest money markets in the world. It is estimated that WeChat Pay and Alipay channelled around 58.8 trillion yuan (approximately US$8.8 trillion) in 2016 (Arslanian & Fischer, 2019; Chandler, 2017; Xie, 2018).', 'WeChat is one of the most common ways for Chinese users to transfer money to each other. It not only allows users to buy insurance products or invest in funds but also lets them schedule doctor’s appointments, book a taxi, make donations or find dates. Presumably, therefore, the financial platforms of the future will not only offer financial products but also meet other consumer needs. Furthermore, this service will be provided by technology companies, not the traditional banking system (Arslanian & Fischer, 2019).', 'Technology companies such as Microsoft, Apple, Amazon and Facebook have digital platform business models. The technologies, products and services they offer provide value primarily by enabling interaction between users, who create strategic networks. This model can create direct network effects (i.e. where a user benefits directly from the participation of other users) or indirect network effects (i.e. where participation by a greater number of users enhances the service, product or technology for a given user). These network effects are directly linked to the creation and capture of value by the platform. The classical theory on network externalities states that the more users there are, the more value is created (Katz & Shapiro, 1985). However, other issues also condition network effects, such as network structure and behaviour (Afuah, 2013).', 'In this context, digital or technology-based platforms use AI to personalise their services or products and thus increase their installed base. The interactions of users with the platform provide information about their interests, tastes, needs, barriers and so on. Through data-driven learning, data are used to detect patterns more accurately to improve products or services, which keeps existing users interacting with the platform and even attracts new users. Gregory, Henfridsson, Kaganer and Kyriakou (2020) recently documented this phenomenon as a new form of network externality: the data network effect.', 'Through AI, the vast reserves of data amassed by certain technology companies give them a competitive advantage that is virtually impossible for rivals to match. Thanks to accumulated data and machine learning techniques, companies can race ahead of competitors and even enter other markets with a substantial advantage (Prufer & Schottmüller, 2017).', 'In summary, technology companies are creating both direct and indirect networks with users, which are affecting the value they provide (Haftor et al., 2021). Technology companies such as Microsoft, Apple, Amazon and Facebook provide value depending on the size of their user network (Afuah, 2013). The more users there are, the more value is created. Technology companies now offer products that the traditional banking system does not. Peer-to-peer lending, for example, can provide the type of financing that previously came predominantly from banks (Arslanian & Fischer, 2019). Robo-advisory platforms use algorithms to offer financial planning services without human supervision. These platforms offer asset management solutions that are both more transparent and less expensive. The common thread of all these technology companies is the use of artificial intelligence (AI).', 'AI refers to technologies that enable machines to perform functions initially associated with the human mind, such as learning, interaction and problem solving (Nilsson, 1971). In the evolutionary process of AI, two major applications of AI can be highlighted: first, the automation of machines to replace routine human tasks, and second, the intensification of the use of machines to perform human tasks, thus improving performance and objectivity (Raisch & Krakowski, 2021). AI was initially applied to automation in production. With the development of learning algorithms and advances in data collection sensors, however, AI is now starting to be used to support, alter or augment the work of humans. AI is applied in decision support and management tasks, with some studies examining the advantages of combining these two applications instead of choosing one over the other. At present, there is a distinction between two major AI applications: first, the automation of machines to replace routine human tasks, and second, the intensification of the use of machines to perform human tasks, thereby enhancing performance and objectivity (Raisch & Krakowski, 2021).', 'With the rise of AI and its use, in this case in the FinTech and AI industries, new jobs are appearing. These jobs require different skills, such as creative design and programming. To engage with stakeholders, it is important to work with governments to develop policies, with regulators to establish laws and with the community to shape and adapt to the new ecosystem. A change of mindset is needed so that people choose to work in start-ups or create businesses instead of opting for the stable, traditional jobs that will be affected by this paradigm shift. This is the future that awaits the world, and some of these changes are already taking place. Therefore, it is crucial to educate younger generations to help them develop the skills they need to become designers, programmers or creative thinkers (Arslanian & Fischer, 2019).', 'As already explained, one of the new alternatives in the labour market is provided by start-ups. Start-ups are new or young companies that develop a product or service that provides value to consumers. They use cross-cutting innovation and create replicable and scalable business models (Baldridge & Curry, 2021). Such firms collaborate more informally than traditional firms. They create a disruptive development, which ultimately leads to rapid growth. According to Robehmed (2013), ‘after about three years in business, most start-ups cease being start-ups. This often coincides with other factors that indicate a graduation from startup-dom: acquisition by a larger company, more than one office, revenues greater than $20 million, more than 80 employees, over five people on the board, and founders who have personally sold shares. Somewhat ironically, when a start-up becomes profitable it is likely moving away from startuphood. One thing we can all agree on: the key attribute of a start-up is its ability to grow’.', 'As already discussed, a feature of start-ups is their use of technology. By using technology and AI, they are more likely to receive funding, given the technologybased, cutting-edge nature of their business models. Initially, seed capital is the predominant form of funding, later being replaced by venture capital (Davila et al., 2003).', 'Start-ups generally initially require a small investment, usually from family, friends and fools (FFFs), as well as the founding partners. This investment is used to start the business. If it is successful and generates revenue, financial support is then sought from a business angel (Adler et al., 2019). The forms of start-up financing include accelerators, business angels, venture capital, crowdfunding and seed capital, which are described in detail in other chapters of this book.', 'From a theoretical viewpoint, a start-up can, by definition, be linked to business model theory (Amit & Zott, 2001). According to this theory, the creation and capture of value occurs through a system of activities that extend beyond the firm’s boundaries and that are performed by a set of actors linked together through transaction mechanisms. Business model theory (Amit & Zott, 2001) was developed in 2001 in response to the emergence of new technology-based companies whose level of success could not be explained by traditional economic theories. This theory proposes four possible sources of value creation: novelty, efficiency, complementarity and lock-in. The essence of a start-up is the use of innovation and technology to offer a novel product or service that responds to an unmet demand.', 'Most start-ups focus their services or products on helping other companies with technology, AI or data management so that they can overcome a lack of capabilities and become more efficient. The start-up business model can be defined as an ecosystem in which the parties (employees, funders, partners, suppliers, etc.) establish a relationship based on complementarity. The network effect may be a value creation and capture initiative that triggers lock-in. However, for an early-stage startup, rapidly building a network of users that allows it to take advantage of the positive network effect is a challenge. Therefore, they activate lock-in mechanisms to achieve maximum customer or user loyalty. Examples of these mechanisms include personalised customer service by small companies, offers and discounts and customised products or services.', 'Start-ups find it hard to establish a data network because it requires time, effort and huge amounts of data. However, the results and the potential benefits are extremely attractive. Start-ups are considering the use of machine learning to continue adding value and adapting to the changing environment, given that startups are currently receiving the most funding due to their potential. In terms of funding, the impact of the data network is also important and will continue to be so for years to come. As already explained, machine learning and artificial intelligence are essential to explore a company’s foundations because they will have a direct impact on the nature of the company and the way it competes.', 'This chapter analyses AI as a key element for start-ups that can help new firms attract more funding than traditional companies with less potential. The chapter also analyses how AI has led to the creation of tools that support companies and entrepreneurs in their financing decisions, given the possibilities it offers in terms of big data analytics. This chapter continues by presenting the theory on AI. It then offers examples of start-ups and the use of AI to finance start-ups.', '2 Theoretical Types of Artificial Intelligence', 'Today, vast sets of data are collected through computer applications, social media and internal company databases. This ‘big data’ must then be processed so that it can be useful and can support decisions that add value to companies and other stakeholders.', 'AI is used to process, interpret, learn and use the data and thus meet various aims (Kaplan & Haenlein, 2019). In AI, machine learning is employed to identify patterns that can lead to predictions and an understanding of business problems and their possible solutions (Vergne, 2020). In machine learning, machines sense data through users’ interactions and facial or voice recognition. They are then able to programme using the information they have learned to offer recommendations or move and control objects (Kaplan & Haenlein, 2019). Narrow AI, which refers to performing a limited task, has short-term commercial potential. Focusing on this form of AI, Chui (2017) listed some business-related AI technologies, such as robotics and selfdriving vehicles, computer vision, language, virtual agents and machine learning. All these technologies are based on or complemented by machine learning. Machine learning can be defined as the discipline concerned with using computational methods to recognise patterns in data and make predictions whose accuracy increases with the amount (and quality) of the data (Vergne, 2020). Advances in machine learning offer a novel approach to performing specific decision-making tasks and resolving business problems. In turn, machine learning is based on improving the price–performance ratio of computer processing technology, data storage, data management and networking technologies (Agrawal et al., 2018). When combined, these technologies make AI an important tool to enable platforms, products or services to generate value for users (Gregory et al., 2020).', 'Value creation is one of the fundamental goals for companies, which constantly strive to provide differentiated services or goods in either economic or qualitative terms. Value creation involves the activities that lead to a higher profit through novelty, innovation and the use of resources that are difficult to imitate (Lepak et al., 2007). Along with the creation of value, it is also necessary to consider the capture of value as two different but interdependent processes, equally important due to the need to guarantee the economic returns representing the company’s total value. As mentioned earlier, through data entry flow, machine learning allows the development of prediction patterns that lead to more personalised offers and increase in precision as more data values are incorporated. This process creates value for users, who, therefore, continue to use the service and provide more data. Those pieces of data improve services, entering a virtuous cycle called data network effects. In this case, the value creation of the data network effects is obvious; the more people using the platform, the better the service. However, it is just as important to analyse the capture of this created value to ensure that these returns are distributed throughout the value creation network fairly and proportionately (Sjödin et al., 2020).', 'This design of the architecture formed by the parties involved in a company and their activities for the creation and capture of value is specified in the business model (Amit & Zott, 2001). The choice of business model is a strategic decision for digital companies because it forms the basis for decision making and price setting (Casadesus-Masanell Ricart, 2010). For example, digital businesses often employ two types of business models: freemium (i.e. free access to content in exchange for advertising) and premium (i.e. access to content through subscription or payments for use).', 'Free access can attract many users and therefore collect a lot of information about their interests and habits. This profile is attractive to advertisers who can personalise their ads and may, therefore, be willing to pay large fees. However, the advertising bombardment can anger users who then leave the platform. Hence, created value has not been balanced with the capture of said value. On the contrary, a premium model provides a secure base of users who are really interested in certain content and who are willing to pay for it. However, it scares away the doubtful who are unsure and are not willing to pay to try.', 'Combining some or all of the sources of value creation and capture proposed by Amit and Zott (2001), the business model themes (efficiency, complementarity, novelty and lock-in) can help start-ups design their business models in this sense, taking advantage of solid theoretical foundations and empirical demonstration.', '3 Practical Examples of the Financing of Start-Ups Using Artificial Intelligence', 'This section presents examples of the use of AI for financial decision making through tools that directly provide information on the risks and profitability associated with investing in certain projects. This section also presents examples of technology companies that have adopted AI and have enjoyed massive growth after beginning as start-ups.', '3.1 Artificial Intelligence as a Financial Tool for the Financing and Promotion of Start-Ups', '3.1.1 Banks', 'The financing of start-ups through banks occurs in many locations. In Scandinavia, leading banks such as DNB Bank and SR-Bank offer ‘corporate accelerators’ for start-ups. These corporate accelerators are important because they maintain contact with the start-ups over a set period (Kohler, 2016). ', 'Since the 2010s, these programmes have been in operation in numerous industries. This example shows that they are suitable for banks (Kanbach & Stubnet, 2016). Their goal is long-term collaboration, which ensures the renewal of profits and provides lasting value (Kohler, 2016).', 'In the traditional approach, the contribution is based on a partnership agreement where mentoring, education and specific corporate resources are sought in cooperation with start-ups. This system also applies to the Norwegian financial industry (Kohler, 2016). AI is used in financial institutions because it opens a world of possibilities. For example, it enables rapid analysis of both structured and unstructured data. It can also enhance the quality of the analysis by considering a larger number of variables, as well as providing more accurate results (Fernández, 2019). Consumers also benefit from a better service, such as the detection of credit card fraud, leading to lower transaction risk.', 'Norway’s leading bank, DNB Bank, has created its own corporate accelerator programme: the ‘DNB NXT Accelerator’ (StartupLab, 2019). DNB developed this tool to provide start-ups with support from individual industry mentors who advise them on financial and consulting matters as part of the start-up partnership programme (StartupLab, 2019). The key for DNB is the reciprocity between the start-up and the financial institution itself. The goal is for the employees of the financial institution to learn from and work for and with the start-up (Hvamstad, 2019). Another example is SR-Bank (in collaboration with SpareBank 1 NordNorge), which has also developed a start-up accelerator programme (Eikeland, 2019). Based on AI, a chatbot service called ‘Boost.ai’ with an estimated value of 1 BNOK has had a positive outcome, to the detriment of other larger projects. The Boost.ai software uses data provided by the client company. It then learns through AI and develops a personalised virtual agent in just a few days. It is a clear example of customer service automation. In addition to DNB Bank, the telecommunications company Telenor has also adopted the technology of Boost.ai.', 'These examples show that the development of AI tools by Norwegian banks gives start-ups support from these banks. It also provides added value because employees can learn from the start-ups, thus growing personally and acquiring new knowledge.'] | [
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10775918073ef338b14ef95cbe10f7b3d5925375be1c8d8a02f66b65e6dfa30d | Wide adoption of regulated robo-advisors abolishes uninformed speculative retail trading---this permanently stabilizes capital markets. | null | Andrew Kingsbury 20, Arizona State University, B.S., Health Sciences, 2018; Cornell Law School, J.D., 2021, “Automating Universal Wealth: How Robo Advisors Can Improve Capital Market Efficiency,” Virginia Law and Business Review, vol. 15, no. 3, 2021/2020, pp. 475–502 | PUBLIC capital markets allow corporations to scale . This enables the global economy U S laws regulate to prevent inefficiencies the efficient capital markets hypothesis that info enables investors to make decisions that lead to equilibrium However investors who buy "market noise" promulgate inefficiencies by incorrect trades that produce inaccurate valuations This is harmful because 'bubbles' arise often retail investors fail due to insufficient literacy advisors share human biological constraints and biases , which lead to mispricing Tech reforming the investor-advisor relationship eliminate the need for a human rework the way capital is deployed change price discovery which lead to greater wealth compounded by tendency to recognize inaccurate price react quickly that comports capital in accordance with value with the fiduciary robo advisor strong ECMH may become standard . Auto investors decrease arbitrage that produces systemic inefficiencies studies show Robo advisors fix this to a fraction of a cent that could obviate active trading it is necessary to evaluate the regulatory framework | PUBLIC capital markets allow corporations to increase scale . This enables the global economy Public markets also enable people to save In the U S a myriad of laws attempts to regulate capital markets to prevent inefficiencies . New Deal legislation required security issuers to disclose risks The U S proposed an entirely new framework whereby public companies would now be required to eliminate info asymmetries Disclosure requirements served as the basis for developing the efficient capital markets hypothesis the idea that widely dispersed info rmation enables rational investors to make informed decisions that will lead to an equilibrium price However , disclosure alone cannot ensure positive returns for the general public Retail investors who buy in response to "market noise" ill-advised trades those promulgate market inefficiencies by making impatient , incorrect , or irrational trades based not on company-specific info but something else . The market correction spawned by COVID provides an illustrative example that increased activity on Robinhood produce d inaccurate valuations for equity assets traders were buying common stock of companies that were filing for bankruptcy Instead of reflecting an ailing company , the investors forced the companies' share prices to correlate with the trading volume and not the underlying info specific to the company This kind of trading is harmful because "[i]f investors do not price rationally , the possibility for irrational 'bubbles' arise s One cannot blame retail investors But often retail investors fail to find profitable investment opportunities due to insufficient financial literacy . As a result, retail investors often enlist the assistance of investment advisors However, not all investors can afford an advisor. Similarly, investment advisors share the same inherent human tendencies as retail investors Though investment advisors possess specialized knowledge , they are limited by biological constraints and behavioral biases , which lead to mispricing securities Tech is one method of combat ting market inefficiencies Recent innovations are reforming the advisor's role in the investor-advisor relationship , and in some instances, these innovations may eliminate the need for a human altogether . These "robo advisors" connect retail investors to tailored advice at a fraction of the cost associated with human advisors. Robo advisors use trading algorithms to maximize value and create new relationships that could rework the way that capital is deployed into the market large scale adoption of robo advising could change the way that price discovery occurs in the secondary market. Computers process info at the speed of light . As algorithms digest information and purchase securities, the market could reflect the algorithms' view , which could lead to greater overall wealth for the entire community The effect is compounded by a robo advisor's tendency to trade at a higher frequency as robo advisors recognize inaccurate ly price d securities, the advisor can react quickly to adjust portfolios which brings the price in line with what the cost of the asset should be based on all the info that Widespread adoption of robo advisors comports with the central thesis of the ECMH because robo advisors apportion capital in accordance with info that reflects a security's value on a real-time basis . As such, robo advisors could increase total returns with the fiduciary robo advisor As the amount of info grows alongside processing power , the strong form of ECMH may not only seem tenable but indeed may become standard . Auto mated investors can process info and execute trades at a speed that human s are not capable of Speed and interoperability between algorithms may create market inefficiencies Critics suggest events like the flash crash could happen frequently ; however ev suggests otherwise several lessons were learned from the flash crash that motivated stakeholders to regulate high-frequency trading algorithms can be and have been altered to avoid similar mistakes robo advisors decrease the opportunity for arbitrage between trading days because robo advisors can more accurately evaluate and price securities on a real-time basis robo advisors are well-positioned to mitigate systemic problems that irrational traders cause. Financial analysts currently account for some irrationality, or "market noise," when creating investment models These calculations account for the fact that not all market participants act in accordance with sound principles , but rather some invest in personal assumptions it is this irrationality that produces systemic market inefficiencies , thereby preventing strong-form efficiency By contrast, robo advisors purchase securities that meet the investment profile that the robo advisor follows studies show that, despite being designed by humans, replacing humans with trading algorithms eliminates the need to account for "price clustering." the tendency for security prices to end in zero or five price clustering results from both humans' preference for round numbers and inherent uncertainty for buyers and sellers when pricing assets Robo advisors can fix this pricing inefficiency The research demonstrates the algorithms' ability to identify and purchase mispriced securities to a fraction of a cent the widespread adoption of robo advisors could eliminate the need to account for irrational investing when pricing securities If robo advisors can consistently purchase securities at lower price than their human counterparts, and at a price that reflects a discount on a company's value, it would seem logical that more investors should shift towards robo advisors. If the shift is widespread it could, in turn, result in greater capital market efficiency because fewer market participants would make inefficient decisions it could obviate the advantage that active trading provides. Active trading takes advantage of the fact that market inefficiencies fail to reflect accurately priced securities, which can yield profits as more investors utilized informed traders, the market inches closer to full efficiency If robo advisors can achieve scale, robo advisors-similar to active investment managers can shift the market towards strong form efficiency Algorithmic trading, and robo advising generally, currently exist in early infancy . As such, it is necessary to evaluate the regulatory framework | corporations increase scale enables the global economy also save U S laws regulate prevent inefficiencies disclose risks U S entirely new framework required eliminate info asymmetries developing the efficient capital markets hypothesis widely dispersed info rational investors informed decisions equilibrium price disclosure alone cannot positive returns general public Retail "market noise" promulgate market inefficiencies impatient incorrect irrational trades not company-specific info something else COVID produce inaccurate valuations filing for bankruptcy ailing company trading volume not underlying info specific to the company harmful price rationally irrational 'bubbles' arise cannot blame retail investors fail insufficient literacy investment advisors not all investors afford same inherent human tendencies retail investors specialized knowledge limited biological constraints behavioral biases mispricing securities Tech combat market inefficiencies reforming eliminate the need for a human altogether "robo advisors" advice fraction of the cost trading algorithms maximize value create new relationships rework the way that capital is deployed into the market price discovery occurs Computers info speed of light algorithms' view greater overall wealth entire community compounded higher frequency inaccurate price react quickly adjust portfolios in line should be all the info Widespread adoption comports with the central thesis of the ECMH apportion capital accordance with info reflects a security's value real-time basis increase total returns amount of info grows processing power strong form tenable standard Auto investors info speed human s not capable of inefficiencies Critics flash crash frequently ev otherwise regulate can be have been altered avoid similar mistakes arbitrage evaluate price securities real-time basis systemic problems irrational traders account not all sound principles some personal assumptions this irrationality systemic market inefficiencies preventing strong-form efficiency investment profile robo advisor follows studies designed replacing eliminates "price clustering." end in zero or five humans' preference for round numbers inherent uncertainty fix pricing inefficiency research demonstrates fraction of a cent widespread adoption eliminate the need to account for irrational investing when pricing securities that widespread greater capital market efficiency fewer market participants inefficient decisions obviate advantage active trading inefficiencies fail profits closer to full efficiency active investment managers strong form efficiency robo advising currently early infancy regulatory framework | ["PUBLIC capital markets serve two primary purposes. First, capital markets allow corporations to increase scale. This, in turn, enables the global economy-where ideas can be shared and improved-thereby improving social welfare in the aggregate. Public markets also enable people to save for long-term goals, such as retirement or a child's education. In the United States, a myriad of laws attempts to regulate capital markets to prevent possible inefficiencies. New Deal legislation required security issuers to disclose risks to enable both retail and institutional investors to make informed decisions.' The United States proposed an entirely new framework whereby public companies would now be required to eliminate information asymmetries. 2 Disclosure requirements, in turn, served as the basis for developing the efficient capital markets hypothesis (ECMH). In short, ECMH stands for the idea that widely dispersed information enables rational investors to make informed decisions that will lead to securities reaching an equilibrium price.3", 'However, disclosure alone cannot ensure positive returns for the general public (also known as "retail investors"). Retail investors, sometimes called "noise traders" (traders who buy in response to "market noise"), frustrate the ECMH when they make ill-advised trades, even if those trades lead to individual profits. Noise traders promulgate market inefficiencies by making impatient, incorrect, or irrational trades that are based not on company-specific information, but on something else. The market correction spawned by the COVID-19 pandemic provides an illustrative example of the potential impact that retail investors pose toward the larger financial system.4 From March to June 2020, millions of new retail investors joined the Robinhood platform.5 Analysts speculate that the increased activity on the Robinhood platform produced inaccurate valuations for some equity assets, noting that some traders were buying common stock of companies that were filing for bankruptcy.6 Instead of reflecting an ailing company, the Robinhood investors forced the companies\' share prices to correlate with the Robinhood trading volume and not the underlying information specific to the company.7 This kind of trading is harmful because "[i]f investors do not price securities rationally, the possibility for irrational \'bubbles\' (essentially, enthusiasm for stocks not grounded in reaistic prospects of profit) arises." 8', "One cannot blame retail investors entirely. By purchasing debt and equity instruments through the public capital markets, they forgo today's dollar with the hope that these instruments grow in value, thereby increasing their future well-being. But too often do retail investors fail to find profitable investment opportunities due to insufficient financial literacy. As a result, retail investors often enlist the assistance of investment advisors to mitigate the investors' knowledge deficit.", 'However, not all retail investors can afford to enlist an investment advisor. Similarly, investment advisors share the same inherent human tendencies as retail investors.9 Though investment advisors possess specialized knowledge, they are limited by biological constraints and behavioral biases, which can lead to mispricing securities (thus yielding negative returns for the investor). Technology is one indirect method of combatting the market inefficiencies that self-interested traders perpetuate. Recent technological innovations are reforming the advisor\'s role in the investor-advisor relationship, and in some instances, these innovations may eliminate the need for a human advisor altogether. These so-called "robo advisors" connect retail investors to tailored advice at a fraction of the cost associated with human advisors. Robo advisors use trading algorithms to maximize portfolio value and create new investor-advisor relationships that could potentially rework the way that capital is deployed into the market. More interestingly, however, is the view that large scale adoption of robo advising could change the way that price discovery occurs in the secondary market.', "Computers can process information at the speed of light. As algorithms digest information and purchase securities, the market could ultimately reflect the algorithms' view, which, in turn, could lead to greater overall wealth for the entire investment community.10 The effect is compounded by a robo advisor's tendency to trade at a higher frequency. Further, as robo advisors recognize inaccurately priced securities, the advisor can react quickly to adjust portfolios by purchasing (or selling) the security, which ultimately brings the price in line with what the cost of the asset should be based on all the information regarding that asset.", "Widespread adoption of robo advisors comports with the central thesis of the ECMH because robo advisors apportion capital in accordance with information that reflects a security's value on a real-time basis. As such, robo advisors could potentially increase total returns as more investors utilize these platforms. Part I of this Note explains the ECMH in greater detail. It also discusses the history of financial advisor regulations and how robo advising comports with these regulations. Part I also notes potential problems with the fiduciary duty framework as it applies (or fails to apply) to a robo advisor. Part II then looks at the role that passive investment instruments play in the market and how robo advisors interact with passive investments. Part III discusses the benefits that widespread adoption of robo advising could have on capital markets, particularly in terms of efficiency gains. Additionally, Part III discusses robo advising's potential risks. Part IV argues for the widespread adoption of robo advising, and in doing so, explains how robo advising achieves greater market efficiency. Part IV also discusses how greater financial inclusion can be achieved because of the efficiency gains produced by robo advisors. Lastly, Part IV proposes regulatory changes that may enable greater efficiency through wider adoption of robo advising platforms. Part V provides a conclusion.", 'I. EFFICIENT CAPITAL MARKET HYPOTHESIS AND FINANCIAL ADVISOR REGULATION', "A Robot's Place in the ECMH Model", 'The ECMH represents a central theory in finance. It stands for the notion that, in an ideal world, the market will "fully reflect" and incorporate all available information in a security\'s price." A strong correlation between the current price and the actual value allows for more efficient resource allocation.12 In his seminal paper explaining ECMH, Eugene Fama described the perfect (most efficient) market as one where "(i) there are no transactions costs in trading securities, (ii) all available information is costlessly available to all market participants, and (iii) all agree on the implications of current information for the current price and distributions of future prices of each security."1 3 While Fama recognized that such conditions are difficult to meet, he stated that market efficiency can still be achieved if a "sufficient numberH" of investors have access to information that impacts a security\'s price.14', "The ECMH has evolved and economists have separated the hypothesis into three different forms: the weak form, the semi-strong form, and the strong form. The weak form stands for the position that the current price of a security fully reflects all the information that the previous price reflected.1 5 In other words, today's price reflects the information that was known yesterday. The semi-strong form holds that the current security prices fully reflect all publicly available information.1 6 Thus, all known information is fully reflected in realtime. Lastly, the strong form holds that the current security's price fully reflects all existing information, whether publicly available or not.17", 'The advent of automated investing further amplifies the ability to process new information. In point of fact, as the amount of information increases, unaided investors are worse off because "it is getting increasingly difficult for investors to follow and consider all available information."1 8 The strong form is a radical proposition, as commentators suggest self-dealing practices like insider trading demonstrate that information exists that the secondary market cannot readily process and reflect in the price.1 9 However, technology has dramatically increased the amount of information surrounding a particular security. That is not to say insider trading will pose no threat to retail investors, but the availability of information allows the market to reflect stock prices more readily. In time, it is possible to use algorithms to detect information (such as insider trading, or information known to insiders), which could indirectly impact a security\'s price by dampening any effects that the insider information would otherwise have if the information were undetected.20', 'As the amount of information grows alongside processing power, the strong form of ECMH may not only seem tenable but indeed may become the standard. Automated investors can process information and execute trades at a speed that human investors are not capable of.21 Speed and interoperability between algorithms may create market inefficiencies, as demonstrated by the "flash crash" in May 2010.22 In short, the flash crash occurred due to the "coexistence of smart execution and algorithmic trading . . . quickly deplet[ing] liquidity." 23 Critics of algorithmic trading suggest that events like the flash crash could happen frequently; however, evidence suggests otherwise. First, several lessons were learned from the flash crash that motivated stakeholders to regulate high-frequency trading.2 4 While the flash crash does cause some concern, algorithms can be and have been altered to avoid similar mistakes. 25Automated processes were successfully implemented into major exchanges years before the 2010 flash crash. In 2006, the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) shifted to a hybrid automated model that increased trading speeds from ten seconds to less than one second.26 The resulting increase produced a more accurate reflection of trading, which in turn led to stocks being priced more efficiently.27 Additionally, robo advisors decrease the opportunity for arbitrage between trading days because robo advisors can more accurately evaluate and price securities on a real-time basis. 28 As such, as robo advisors begin to manage a greater share of investments, a strong-form ECMH could produce more accurately priced securities. 29', 'Furthermore, robo advisors are well-positioned to mitigate the systemic problems that irrational traders cause. Financial analysts currently account for some degree of irrationality, or "market noise," when creating investment models. 30 These calculations account for the fact that not all market participants act in accordance with sound valuation principles, but rather some actors invest in personal assumptions. 3 1 Ultimately, it is this irrationality that produces systemic market inefficiencies, thereby preventing strong-form efficiency. 32 By contrast, robo advisors purchase securities that meet the investment profile that the robo advisor follows. Further studies show that, despite being designed by humans, replacing humans with trading algorithms eliminates the need to account for "price clustering." 33 Price clustering represents the tendency for security prices to end in zero or five. 3 4 While many theories seek to explain this trend, commentators suggest that price clustering results from both humans\' preference for round numbers and the inherent uncertainty that exists for both buyers and sellers when pricing assets.35 Robo advisors can fix this pricing inefficiency through algorithmic trading. The research demonstrates the algorithms\' ability to identify and purchase mispriced securities to a fraction of a cent.36 Thus, the widespread adoption of robo advisors could eliminate the need to account for irrational investing when pricing securities. 37', "If robo advisors can consistently purchase securities at a lower price than their human counterparts, and at a price that reflects a discount on a company's value, it would seem logical that more investors should shift towards using robo advisors. If the shift is widespread it could, in turn, result in greater capital market efficiency because fewer market participants would make inefficient decisions. Relatedly, it could obviate the advantage that active trading provides. Active trading takes advantage of the fact that market inefficiencies can fail to reflect accurately priced securities, which can yield profits for active traders. 38 Indeed, some suggest that as more investors utilized informed traders, the market inches closer to full efficiency because these managers bring the assets back towards the equilibrium price.39 If robo advisors can achieve scale, it is not inconceivable that robo advisors-similar to active investment managers can shift the market towards strong form efficiency.", 'However, this is a large break from traditional investing and would require individuals to divest some of their agency over individual investing decisions. This shift would require regulators to pass legislation that compels the adoption of robo advisors as the preferred financial management medium. Requiring people to change their investing preferences may be unpalatable to some; however, the move towards algorithmic trading among institutional investors provides some precedent.4 0 While this shift might be viewed as requiring some individual sacrifice, the concept is not new and, as one economist previously noted, "the investment policy which is socially advantageous coincides with that which is most profitable."41 It must be stated that these assumptions are largely theoretical. Algorithmic trading, and robo advising generally, currently exist in early infancy. As such, it is necessary to evaluate the regulatory framework surrounding investment advisors to determine how robo advisors fit within the current scheme.'] | [
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] | [
"PUBLIC capital markets",
"allow corporations to increase scale. This",
"enables the global economy",
"Public markets also enable people to save",
"In the U",
"S",
"a myriad of laws attempts to regulate capital markets to prevent",
"inefficiencies. New Deal legislation required security issuers to disclose risks",
"The U",
"S",
"proposed an entirely new framework whereby public companies would now be required to eliminate info",
"asymmetries",
"Disclosure requirements",
"served as the basis for developing the efficient capital markets hypothesis",
"the idea that widely dispersed information enables rational investors to make informed decisions that will lead to",
"an equilibrium price",
"However, disclosure alone cannot ensure positive returns for the general public",
"Retail investors",
"who buy in response to \"market noise\"",
"ill-advised trades",
"those",
"promulgate market inefficiencies by making impatient, incorrect, or irrational trades",
"based not on company-specific info",
"but",
"something else. The market correction spawned by",
"COVID",
"provides an illustrative example",
"that",
"increased activity on",
"Robinhood",
"produced inaccurate valuations for",
"equity assets",
"traders were buying common stock of companies that were filing for bankruptcy",
"Instead of reflecting an ailing company, the",
"investors forced the companies' share prices to correlate with the",
"trading volume and not the underlying info",
"specific to the company",
"This kind of trading is harmful because \"[i]f investors do not price",
"rationally, the possibility for irrational 'bubbles'",
"arises",
"One cannot blame retail investors",
"But",
"often",
"retail investors fail to find profitable investment opportunities due to insufficient financial literacy. As a result, retail investors often enlist the assistance of investment advisors",
"However, not all",
"investors can afford",
"an",
"advisor. Similarly, investment advisors share the same inherent human tendencies as retail investors",
"Though investment advisors possess specialized knowledge, they are limited by biological constraints and behavioral biases, which",
"lead to mispricing securities",
"Tech",
"is one",
"method of combatting",
"market inefficiencies",
"Recent",
"innovations are reforming the advisor's role in the investor-advisor relationship, and in some instances, these innovations may eliminate the need for a human",
"altogether. These",
"\"robo advisors\" connect retail investors to tailored advice at a fraction of the cost associated with human advisors. Robo advisors use trading algorithms to maximize",
"value and create new",
"relationships that could",
"rework the way that capital is deployed into the market",
"large scale adoption of robo advising could change the way that price discovery occurs in the secondary market.",
"Computers",
"process info",
"at the speed of light. As algorithms digest information and purchase securities, the market could",
"reflect the algorithms' view, which",
"could lead to greater overall wealth for the entire",
"community",
"The effect is compounded by a robo advisor's tendency to trade at a higher frequency",
"as robo advisors recognize inaccurately priced securities, the advisor can react quickly to adjust portfolios",
"which",
"brings the price in line with what the cost of the asset should be based on all the info",
"that",
"Widespread adoption of robo advisors comports with the central thesis of the ECMH because robo advisors apportion capital in accordance with info",
"that reflects a security's value on a real-time basis. As such, robo advisors could",
"increase total returns",
"with the fiduciary",
"robo advisor",
"As the amount of info",
"grows alongside processing power, the strong form of ECMH may not only seem tenable but indeed may become",
"standard. Automated investors can process info",
"and execute trades at a speed that human",
"s are not capable of",
"Speed and interoperability between algorithms may create market inefficiencies",
"Critics",
"suggest",
"events like the flash crash could happen frequently; however",
"ev",
"suggests otherwise",
"several lessons were learned from the flash crash that motivated stakeholders to regulate high-frequency trading",
"algorithms can be and have been altered to avoid similar mistakes",
"robo advisors decrease the opportunity for arbitrage between trading days because robo advisors can more accurately evaluate and price securities on a real-time basis",
"robo advisors are well-positioned to mitigate",
"systemic problems that irrational traders cause. Financial analysts currently account for some",
"irrationality, or \"market noise,\" when creating investment models",
"These calculations account for the fact that not all market participants act in accordance with sound",
"principles, but rather some",
"invest in personal assumptions",
"it is this irrationality that produces systemic market inefficiencies, thereby preventing strong-form efficiency",
"By contrast, robo advisors purchase securities that meet the investment profile that the robo advisor follows",
"studies show that, despite being designed by humans, replacing humans with trading algorithms eliminates the need to account for \"price clustering.\"",
"the tendency for security prices to end in zero or five",
"price clustering results from both humans' preference for round numbers and",
"inherent uncertainty",
"for",
"buyers and sellers when pricing assets",
"Robo advisors can fix this pricing inefficiency",
"The research demonstrates the algorithms' ability to identify and purchase mispriced securities to a fraction of a cent",
"the widespread adoption of robo advisors could eliminate the need to account for irrational investing when pricing securities",
"If robo advisors can consistently purchase securities at",
"lower price than their human counterparts, and at a price that reflects a discount on a company's value, it would seem logical that more investors should shift towards",
"robo advisors. If the shift is widespread it could, in turn, result in greater capital market efficiency because fewer market participants would make inefficient decisions",
"it could obviate the advantage that active trading provides. Active trading takes advantage of the fact that market inefficiencies",
"fail to reflect accurately priced securities, which can yield profits",
"as more investors utilized informed traders, the market inches closer to full efficiency",
"If robo advisors can achieve scale,",
"robo advisors-similar to active investment managers can shift the market towards strong form efficiency",
"Algorithmic trading, and robo advising generally, currently exist in early infancy. As such, it is necessary to evaluate the regulatory framework"
] | [
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] | 1,577,865,600 | 78 |
52b43a95888d6c9ed98d200dbd1fc7f3668417f012a73a41e40534e88b9c1427 | BUT, unregulated uptake increases the odds of financial crisis---it enables risk externalization by intermediaries and blurs lines of causality, making liability impossible. Fiduciary duties for the algorithm are key. | null | Simin Gao 20, Associate Professor of Tsinghua University, School of Law, “Hephaestus and Talos: The Legal Status and Obligation Theory of Robot Advisors,” 2020 Sing. J. Legal Stud. 143, 2020, HeinOnline | Intelligent finance poses a huge challenge focus on institutions and practitioners may bring liability failure leading to externalisation of risk If a robot does not have legal personality , who should be the fiduciary the problem of obligor identification enables complex services hidden behind the veil so regulators cannot understand risks this regulation arbitrage cost s human resources law can balance benefits and risks of innovation FinTech can lead to efficiency , but also risk "too fast to save". systemic risk bad data or nefarious stimuli can cause catastrophic harm law and regulation tolerate trial-and-error and turn into disaster Robo advisors change the legal contractual relationship between investors and institution a seemingly transparent veil hides complex intermediaries AI algo s are more complex than traditional large data also makes it difficult and blurs responsible persons Fiduciary duty is the legal response to uncontrollable unpredictable risks and uses ex post penalties to deter conduct duty of loyalty is core Due to complexity it is necessary to require advisors to sell right products to right investors However AI lacks legal personality that worsens and conceals these problems | Al assisting natural persons to engage in financial data analysis, processing and services is known as an intelligent financial agent Intelligent finance poses a huge challenge to regulation . The focus of traditional law and regulation is based on institutions and practitioners Thus, traditional regulation is insufficient to deal with intelligent finance which may bring about the problem of liability failure leading to externalisation of risk Robot advisors are a typical form of intelligent financial agents. Robot advisors replacing natural persons to advise investors brings challenges to traditional regulation , which targets the practitioners . If a robot advisor does not have an independent legal personality , who should be the fiduciary in the client-advisor relationship? Who should be liable for the loss of investors caused by using Al in services? Should the legal obligations be different under the robot model? Although this paper uses Chinese law as the context, it may provide a reference to the fundamental questions that the financial industry may face when using Al, namely, the problem of obligor identification and reform of the obligation system to accommodate the algorithmic context. finance is heavily regulated with high compliance costs Therefore, the industry needs new profitable businesses through innovation , which does not have much compliance burden. Using intelligent technology in financial services can solve these challenges . Using an intelligent tool to replace heavily regulated financial professionals to provide services enables the complex financial services to be hidden behind the veil of tech so that regulators cannot understand the risks and may deregulate From this point of view, intelligent finance has a gene for regulation arbitrage the complexity and depth of expertise of the industry makes the cost of it s human resources high, therefore excluding consumers with lower income Al can reduce cost and service price , and hence promote the financial inclusion of the lower-income class . In past decades, the history of finance has also been the history of innovation and regulation . This is about how law can balance the extremes : the benefits and risks of innovation FinTech The combination of finance and tech can lead to greater efficiency , but there is also a risk of "too fast to save". "the future of cy-fi only appears to be accelerating as financial engineers chase the speed of light Such velocity give rise to new systemic risk "[a]utomated programmes responding to bad data or nefarious stimuli can cause catastrophic harm before rescue can be implemented Law and regulation often lag tech Under pressure of industry law and regulation often tolerate a trial-and-error approach and deregulate innovation. It is often too late to step in after risks accumulate and turn into disaster The combination tech greatly reduces transaction costs , meaning non-professionals can transact This means more irrational investment frenzy and bubble Robot advisors are able to perform behaviours and tasks without direct intervention react autonomously and execute instructions could learn social skills to communicate have ability to proactively carry out goal-oriented activities . They can react and observe the communication environment. They have the ability to act like a human for certain acts responsiveness mobility and representativeness allow robot advisors to demonstrate characteristics similar to human agents However, smart investment advisors are not conscious Robo t advisors have change d the legal relationship between advisor and client Natural person investment advisors do business face-to-face whereas robot s interact via AI Investment advisors provide investment services after they learn about the demands of their investors. Their advice is customised and personalised Under the robot consulting behaviour is pre-set in the algorithm The legal relationship at the service providing the contractual relationship between the investors and the financial institution The system was originally designed to regulate financial practitioners faces difficulties of application in the robot model the legal relationship at the programming stage, which is a core part of the business lacks legal regulation at present. The robo t advisors ' programmes are developed by the tech department of third-party institutions The core of their programme is the algorithm The services are pre-set in the algorithm which is regarded as a technical activity out of reach of the traditional regulatory framework . The degree of intelligence in the pre-set algorithm for robo-advisors varies How can regulators regulate pre-set services by algorithm? There is no ready answer FinTech weaves a seemingly convenient and transparent veil but hides complex financial intermediaries and legal relations It is difficult for regulators to understand the nature and risk "the swift ness of financial innovation simply laps the slowness of rulemaking AI algo rithm s involving the technology of neural networks based on thousands of variables and millions of pages of data are more complex than traditional programmes. Thus, it is difficult for regulators to determine the specific data related to the results. Robot advisors often use large amounts of data to make decisions by consolidating across platforms , which also makes it difficult for regulators to explain specific factors that influence algorithmic behaviour and finally identify the responsible parties . The emergence of robot advisors blurs the boundaries of financial institutions and technical institutions , resulting in infinite intermediaries Regulators are faced with the difficulty of identifying the responsible persons Fiduciary duty is the legal response to uncontrollable and unpredictable risks and uses ex post penalties to deter wrongful conduct The duty of loyalty is a core fiduciary duty The duty of care requires the fiduciary to act as a prudent advisor and to have reasonable care, skill and vigilance If they act in accordance with general practice in the process of engagement, they are not responsible for investment failures Due to the complexity of financial products it is necessary to require investment advisors to sell the right products to the right investors under the suitability obligation. An advisor should not recommend high-risk products to investors without the corresponding risk appetite However , the robot advisor itself does not owe a fiduciary duty because AI lacks legal personality that worsens and further conceals these problems | natural financial data analysis, processing services intelligent financial agent huge challenge to regulation traditional institutions practitioners insufficient liability failure externalisation of risk replacing natural persons challenges traditional regulation practitioners independent legal personality fiduciary client-advisor relationship? liable loss of investors Al services? different robot model? fundamental questions obligor identification reform of the obligation system heavily regulated high compliance costs innovation intelligent technology solve these challenges intelligent tool heavily regulated financial professionals hidden veil of tech cannot understand the risks deregulate regulation arbitrage complexity depth of expertise cost s human resources excluding consumers lower income reduce cost service price financial inclusion lower-income class history finance innovation regulation law balance the extremes benefits risks of innovation finance tech greater efficiency also "too fast to save". accelerating chase the speed of light velocity new systemic risk "[a]utomated programmes bad data nefarious stimuli catastrophic harm before rescue lag tech pressure industry trial-and-error deregulate too late after accumulate disaster tech transaction costs non-professionals transact irrational investment frenzy bubble Robot advisors without direct intervention autonomously execute instructions social skills communicate proactively goal-oriented activities like a human responsiveness mobility representativeness similar human agents not conscious Robo advisors change legal relationship advisor client Natural person face-to-face robot s AI pre-set algorithm legal relationship service providing contractual investors financial institution originally financial practitioners difficulties robot model programming core part business lacks legal regulation robo advisors developed tech department third-party institutions algorithm pre-set algorithm technical out of reach traditional regulatory framework varies regulate pre-set services by algorithm? no ready answer seemingly convenient and transparent veil hides complex financial intermediaries legal relations difficult for regulators nature and risk swift financial innovation laps rulemaking AI algo s millions of pages of data more complex specific data large amounts consolidating across platforms also identify responsible parties blurs the boundaries financial institutions technical institutions infinite intermediaries difficulty identifying the responsible persons Fiduciary duty legal response to uncontrollable and unpredictable risks ex post penalties wrongful conduct loyalty core care prudent reasonable care, skill and vigilance accordance with general practice not responsible complexity financial products require advisors right products right investors suitability corresponding risk appetite robot advisor itself not AI lacks legal personality worsens further conceals these problems | ['Artificial intelligence ("AI") is not an innovation of the 2 0 \'h century. In ancient times, the God of blacksmith and fire in Greek mythology, Hephaestus, created the first intelligent robot, Talos, which was given to Europa.1 Talos was a gigantic bronze device, with a certain degree of automaticity and intelligence and functioned to protect the Crez.2 Was Talos a person in law? Who should be responsible for Talos\' behaviours? Should it be the creator Hephaestus or the owner Europa? The birth of the intelligent robot raised the debate over the concept of a \'legal person\' and the associated issue of liability in law. The debate continues and grows ever more heated as intelligent robots emerge from mythology into reality in different industries. This paper is about the long-standing controversies in the financial industry in the age of intelligent finance, which uses intelligent technology to provide financial services. 3 In the age of intelligent finance, the development of technology enables some technology platforms to replace professional financial intermediaries in financial activities4 (for example, the digital financial intermediaries, typically P2P platforms and crowdfunding). Al assisting natural persons to engage in financial industry data analysis, processing and services is known as an intelligent financial agent. 5 Intelligent finance poses a huge challenge to regulation. The focus of traditional financial law and regulation is based on financial institutions and financial practitioners, while non-financial institutions and their employees are outside its radar. Thus, traditional regulation is insufficient to deal with intelligent finance, 6 which may bring about the problem of liability failure leading to the externalisation of risk.7 Robot advisors are a typical form of intelligent financial agents. Robot advisors replacing natural persons to advise investors brings challenges to the traditional financial regulation, which targets the financial practitioners. If a robot advisor does not have an independent legal personality, who should be the fiduciary in the client-advisor relationship? Who should be liable for the loss of investors caused by using Al in financial services? Should the legal obligations be different under the robot advisor model? This paper aims to answer these questions in the context of Chinese law. Although this paper takes robot advisors as an example and uses Chinese law as the context, it may provide a reference to the fundamental questions that the financial industry may face when using Al, namely, the problem of obligor identification and reform of the obligation system to better accommodate the algorithmic context. This article can also shed light on the long-standing debate over the concept of the \'legal person\' and the liability system in the context of Al.', 'II. THE GAME OF INTELLIGENT FINANCE AND LAW: THE STATUS AND DILEMMA', 'The two primary challenges faced by the financial industry are finding new profitable sources and cutting costs. Firstly, finance is a heavily regulated industry with high compliance costs. Therefore, the industry needs to seek new profitable businesses through innovation, which does not have much compliance burden. Using intelligent technology in financial services can help to solve these two challenges. Using an intelligent tool to replace heavily regulated financial professionals to provide services enables the complex financial services to be hidden behind the veil of technology so that regulators cannot fully understand the risks of the business and may deregulate the innovative service. From this point of view, intelligent finance has a gene for regulation arbitrage. Secondly, the complexity and depth of expertise of the financial industry makes the cost of its human resources high, therefore excluding consumers with lower income from getting financial services. Al can reduce labour cost and service price, and hence promote the financial inclusion of the lower-income class. In the past decades, the history of intelligent finance has also been the history of a game of innovation and regulation. This game is about how the law can balance the two extremes: the benefits and risks of innovation. Today, as we discuss how to regulate intelligent finance, the lessons of history are still relevant.', 'A. Fifty Years of Development, Gameplay and Lessons from Intelligent Finance', 'Intelligent finance is not new; it dates back to 1967 when Barclays used the world\'s first ATM.8 In 1978, the modern automatic interbank clearing system was established in the UK. Established in 1973, the Global Banking Financial Telecommunications Association provides financial institutions with a set of standards for the exchange of information and payment data, allowing electronic transaction instructions to gradually replace manual instructions. 9 This set of systems made transaction instructions completely electronic and transnational. However, high-speed and wide net trading meant increased efficiency as well as increased risk. The collapse of Herstatt Bank in the 1970s brought attention to the systemic risks of cross-border finance, which led to the birth of the Basel Committee, an international regulator. 10 The progress of intelligent finance did not stagnate. In 1971, the United States ("US") established a national securities electronic market system, the Nasdaq Stock Exchange. 1 In the 1980s, the computerised risk internal control system was developed by Bloomberg, a technology company, and widely used by financial institutions. 12 Soon after that, the automated trading procedures emerged. 13 The automated trading system led to the 1987 global Black Monday stock market crash, after which regulators placed heavy regulation on the electronic stock market to control the speed of price changes. 14 In the 1990s, the universal use of computer technology enabled individual investors to participate in financial investment via intelligent financial platforms, which used to be only available to financial professionals. 15 Unfortunately, the boom of overinvestment led to a speculative bubble. The burst of the internet bubble in 2000 made the users of intelligent financial platforms switch from non-professionals to financial professionals again. 16 The development of intelligent finance in the past 50 years has given today\'s lawmakers and regulators many lessons on how we can encourage technological innovation as well as avoid the risks and externalities of FinTech. The following risks cannot be ignored.', '1. Too fast to save', 'The combination of finance and technology can lead to greater efficiency, but there is also a risk of "too fast to save". 17 Professor Lin has claimed that "the future of cy-fi only appears to be accelerating as financial engineers chase the speed of light with new technology like quantum computing. Such velocity and acceleration give rise to a new systemic risk of \'too fast to save\'."18 Particularly, "[a]utomated programmes responding to bad data or nefarious stimuli can cause catastrophic harm to financial institutions before remedial or rescue measures can be implemented". 19 Law and regulation often lag behind the development of technology. Under the pressure of the industry to encourage innovation, law and regulation often tolerate a trial-and-error approach and deregulate innovation. It is often too late for law and regulation to step in after the risks associated with innovation quickly accumulate and turn into a disaster.', '2. Speculative bubbles caused by low threshold of investment', 'The combination of finance and technology greatly reduces transaction costs, meaning that both professional institutions and non-professionals can obtain convenient and cheap transaction assistance. This breaks down barriers for non-professionals investing without professional institutions. However, this also means that more capital flows into the financial sector because of the lower entry threshold, irrational investment frenzy and bubble.', '3. Regulatory dilemmas caused by infinite intermediaries', 'The development of technology has made the boundaries of financial institutions more and more blurred. Many institutions are in the middle zone between the categories of financial institutions and technology institutions. The connection between technology institutions and financial institutions intensifies over time. This phenomenon is known as infinite intermediary phenomenon according to the literature. 20 The emergence of infinite intermediaries in FinTech makes it difficult for traditional regulation to effectively regulate the FinTech kingdom. Thus, there is a significant risk of regulatory failure and regulatory arbitrage.', 'History shows the lesson that technology providing faster and cheaper financial services does not change the high-risk nature of financial activity. Financial investment is not universally suitable for everyone. In the absence of an effective regulatory and responsibility system, rashly promoting the use of intelligent financial platforms instead of financial professionals to the public will undoubtedly trigger a crisis.', 'B. The Characteristics of Robot Advisors', 'Robot advisors possess a certain degree of intelligence; they are able to independently perform certain behaviours and tasks without direct human intervention and interact with humans or other intelligent intermediaries. They are able to react autonomously to circumstantial changes and execute instructions without intervention by human beings or other actors. They could be trained to learn social skills to communicate with other artificial intermediaries or humans. They have the ability to proactively carry out goal-oriented activities. They can react and observe the communication environment. They have the ability to act like a human or other intermediaries for certain acts. Three fundamental characteristics, namely responsiveness, mobility and representativeness, allow robot advisors to demonstrate characteristics similar to human agents.2 1 However, smart investment advisors are not conscious agents. According to Davidson\'s definition, the legal conduct of so-called conscious agents must be based on their beliefs or wishes, not on human instructions. 22 Michael Jordan said that the evolution of Al has not yet begun and the current stage of development of Al only serves to increase human intelligence and is far from creating independent intelligence. 23 The current stage of Al is still far from real intelligence and it is actually better described as "intelligence augmentation", which creates "services that augment human intelligence and creativity". 24', 'C. The Regulatory Dilemma of Robot Advisors', "Robot advisors have changed the legal relationship between an advisor and his client. Natural person investment advisors do business face-to-face with investors whereas robot advisors interact with clients via their AI system instead of face-to-face interaction. Investment advisors provide investment services after they learn about the demands of their investors. Their advice is customised and personalised to the clients' needs. Under the robot advisor mode, consulting behaviour is pre-set in the algorithm by the programme design and the development institution. A significant difference from the traditional model is that algorithm replaces natural persons to contact the investor and complete the consultation. The series of relationships under the robot advisor is shown in Fig. 1. The legal relationship at the service providing stage, (for instance, the contractual relationship between the investors and the financial institution) is shown inside the block with the solid line frame. The legal system which was originally designed to regulate financial practitioners faces the difficulties of application in the robot advisor model. Therefore, how to reconstruct the law and regulation in the context of robot advisors is the first question to be answered in this paper. The block with the dashed line frame shows the legal relationship at the programming stage, which is a core part of the business of the robot advisor [FIGURE 1 OMITTED] but lacks legal regulation at present. The robot advisors' programmes are generally developed by the technology department of third-party institutions or financial institutions. The core of their programme is the algorithm that reflects the characteristics of customers and products. The consulting and investment services are pre-set in the algorithm,25 which is regarded as a technical activity and out of the reach of the traditional regulatory framework. The degree of intelligence in the pre-set algorithm for robo-advisors varies to a great extent. Some simply have the options menu without a questionnaire of the client's characteristics; some have the matching function, which matches the clients' merits and demands with certain financial products; some provide independent advice for the clients, which are similar to robo-advisors in the US, such as those deployed by Wealthfront and Betterman. 26 How can regulators regulate pre-set consulting and investment services by algorithm? There is no ready answer. This is the second question to be answered in this article.", 'The development of intelligent finance has led to two regulatory dilemmas. Firstly, FinTech weaves a seemingly convenient and transparent veil of technology but hides complex financial intermediaries and legal relations involving algorithm behind the veil.27 It is difficult for regulators to understand the nature and risk of financial behaviour behind the veil of technology, leading to the failure of external regulation. As Lin argues, "the swiftness of financial innovation simply laps the slowness of rulemaking" and the lack of investment in RegTech compared with the huge investment in the industry will exacerbate the lags. 2 8 AI algorithms involving the technology of neural networks based on thousands of variables and millions of pages of data are more complex than traditional computer programmes. Thus, it is difficult for regulators to determine the specific data related to the results. Robot advisors often use large amounts of data to make decisions by consolidating data across platforms, which also makes it difficult for regulators to explain specific factors that influence algorithmic behaviour and finally identify the responsible parties. The emergence of robot advisors further blurs the boundaries of financial institutions and technical institutions, resulting in the phenomenon of infinite intermediaries. 29 Regulators are faced with the difficulty of identifying the nature of financial behaviour and responsible persons.30', 'Secondly, intelligent technology binds users to a narrow area of information led by interests and preconceptions, thus creating an information cocoon. 3 1 Intelligent finance gives a sense of neutrality and the appearance of algorithmic science easily misleads investors into making the wrong decisions. This also makes investor protection issues more prominent in the context of intelligent finance. Algorithms are only a decision-making device to augment human intelligence. Algorithms cannot transcend the human bias of their designers as "an opinion wrapped in the appearance of mathematics". 32 Although intelligent financial technology can "augment human intelligence and creativity, many of the moral and capable flaws of human beings remain". 33 Designers and operators are not necessarily able to overcome their moral and capable deficiencies. Those deficiencies may be hidden behind the algorithm, less likely to be found by regulators and the public. A new model is needed for dealing with the problems created by using algorithms in finance.', 'III. THE CHALLENGE OF THE ROBOT ADVISORY MODEL TO THE TRADITIONAL REGULATORY SYSTEM', "As financial products become increasingly complex and information asymmetries become increasingly prominent, investors' negotiation ability, decision-making ability and ability to resist risks increasingly become too weak to effectively monitor the behaviour of financial practitioners. Therefore, investors need special protection. Under the natural person investment advisor model, natural person investment advisors and financial institutions are fiduciaries undertaking fiduciary duties and compliance obligations such as obtaining permission, registering according to law and maintaining competence and suitability obligations under Chinese law.34 Chinese law also establishes a structure of effective supervision of investment advisors inside financial institutions. 35 The emergence of robot advisors has made financial behaviour a mixed process, consisting of both human behaviours as well as algorithmic behaviour.", 'A. The Traditional Regulation for the Natural Human Advisor', 'This mixture of actions by machines and human beings makes it difficult to identify responsible persons and allocate responsibility. Under the traditional investment advisory model, the advisors who provide advice to investors owe a fiduciary duty to the investors. Although investment decisions are based on the Modern Portfolio Theory as a standard practice, 36 investment advice is diversified and personalised by relying on very personalised factors, such as experience, knowledge, talent, implicit intuition and logical reasoning, which form the basis of the professional judgment of advisors and determine the quality of advice. In addition to the different quality of professional judgment, professional ethics determine the behaviour of advisors, especially in the circumstance of a conflict of interest. Though as important as they are, these factors are unpredictable ex ante, hence constituting risks difficult to control with contracts.', 'Fiduciary duty is the legal response to uncontrollable and unpredictable risks and uses ex post penalties to deter wrongful conduct amongst fiduciaries. The regulation issued by the Chinese Securities Regulatory Commission provides for a duty of prudence and loyalty from investment advisors. 3 7', "The duty of loyalty is a core fiduciary duty.38 The duty of loyalty requires that the fiduciary's conduct must be in good faith and for the interests of the beneficiary. The fiduciary must also avoid self-dealing and disclose any conflict of interest.39 The investment advisor has personal interests, which may conflict with the fundamental interests of the investor. The duty of loyalty sets the standard for investment advisors in the face of conflicts of interest. In accordance with the requirements of the duty of loyalty, the clients' interests must override the investment advisors' interests. Investment advisors shall not recommend products that are not in the best interest of the investor, even if it is in the interests of their employers (financial institutions) to promote the products. The duty of loyalty also requires that the investment advisor shall not disclose the secrets of any client for the benefit of any other client. 40", 'The duty of care requires the fiduciary to act as a prudent investment advisor in any given circumstance and to have reasonable care, skill and vigilance necessary to fulfil his or her obligations.4 1 The duty of care is more about the attitude of consultants than the outcome of their work. If they act in accordance with general practice in the process of engagement, they are not responsible for investment failures. 42', "Financial institutions' fiduciary obligations have two significant characteristics. Firstly, financial institutions should, through internal control and management, ensure that their investment advisors are able to provide services in compliance with practical and prudent obligations. Financial institutions should also have a sound internal control mechanism to form an effective system of constraints.4 3 Senior managers and sub-management managers also have a duty of loyalty to their financial institutions.44 Secondly, financial institutions have more funding compared with individuals to compensate investors for losses. A financial institution needs to compensate an investor's loss when its employee violates his fiduciary duty under Chinese law.4 5", 'Due to the significant depth of expertise and systematic risk involved in financial businesses, the financial industry strictly implements the licensing system. Firstly, institutions and individuals who engage in the financial industry must be approved by the relevant authorities. Otherwise, those would constitute illegal financial operations. Investment advice is also included. 46 Secondly, natural person investment advisors need to pass a qualification exam and obtain a special license to ensure their competence.4 7 Although the senior managers, directors and supervisors of financial institutions do not have direct contact with investors or provide advice directly, they exercise substantial supervision and influence over direct practitioners and manage the day-to-day affairs of financial institutions. Therefore, Chinese law also requires them to get qualified to testify to their competence. 48', 'Due to the complexity of financial products and the heterogeneity of investors, it is necessary to require investment advisors to sell the right products to the right investors under the suitability obligation. An advisor should not recommend high-risk products to investors without the corresponding risk appetite. The obligation of suitability aims to ensure that investment advisors sell qualified products to suitable investors with adequate financial resources to take risks.49 The obligation of suitability should be fulfilled by financial institutions and their practitioners who have a duty of loyalty to their investors. However, traditional regulation regarding investment advisors is targetted at regulating human investment advisors and financial institutions and faces new challenges in the context of robot advisors.', 'B. The Black Box of Robot Advisors and The Obligation Failure', "Robot advisors are essentially intelligent products in place of natural person investment advisors to provide investors with investment advice. The algorithm is formed by two parts: analysis of market data (data-driven learning) on one hand and knowledge from humans on the other hand. The latter is a simulation of the behaviour of natural person investment advisors-their intuition and logical reasoning are transformed into computer programmes. This is the primary basis of the conduct of robot advisors. The characteristics of financial products and users are pre-defined in the algorithm and products are matched with suitable users. Under the robot advisor model, natural persons or machines provide advice based on professional judgment in finance, professional ethics and the measurement of interests. In other words, defects and biases in the professional judgment, professional ethics and measurement of interests of natural persons may be transferred to the algorithm. However, the robot advisor itself does not owe a fiduciary duty because AI lacks legal personality. Nevertheless, the issues of a lack of professional competence and conflicts of interest that are supposedly resolved by fiduciary duties still exist. Moreover, the use of robot advisors worsens and further conceals these problems. First, robot advisors may not be able to meet the duty of good faith.50 In the US case of CFTC v Vartuli, a seller of financial trading software misled investors into thinking that the software would help them make money automatically. 5 1 It turned out that the investors who used the software suffered substantial losses in the derivatives market. In the Chinese case of Huang Tenghui, the defendant set up a technology company to sell stock speculation software to investors. 52 To attract investors, the defendant's advertisement made fraudulent statements concerning the profitmaking capability of the software, lied about the use of insider information and promised a fictitiously high rate of return. The defendant also lied about the qualifications of the analyst who actually did not have any qualifications in security analysis. 53 Consequently, more than 100 investors suffered huge losses from using the software. 54"] | [
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"Intelligent finance poses a huge challenge",
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"If a robot",
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"large",
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"Fiduciary duty is the legal response to uncontrollable",
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"duty of loyalty is",
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"Due to",
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"it is necessary to require",
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] | [
"Al assisting natural persons to engage in financial",
"data analysis, processing and services is known as an intelligent financial agent",
"Intelligent finance poses a huge challenge to regulation. The focus of traditional",
"law and regulation is based on",
"institutions and",
"practitioners",
"Thus, traditional regulation is insufficient to deal with intelligent finance",
"which may bring about the problem of liability failure leading to",
"externalisation of risk",
"Robot advisors are a typical form of intelligent financial agents. Robot advisors replacing natural persons to advise investors brings challenges to",
"traditional",
"regulation, which targets the",
"practitioners. If a robot advisor does not have an independent legal personality, who should be the fiduciary in the client-advisor relationship? Who should be liable for the loss of investors caused by using Al in",
"services? Should the legal obligations be different under the robot",
"model?",
"Although this paper",
"uses Chinese law as the context, it may provide a reference to the fundamental questions that the financial industry may face when using Al, namely, the problem of obligor identification and reform of the obligation system to",
"accommodate the algorithmic context.",
"finance is",
"heavily regulated",
"with high compliance costs",
"Therefore, the industry needs",
"new profitable businesses through innovation, which does not have much compliance burden. Using intelligent technology in financial services can",
"solve these",
"challenges. Using an intelligent tool to replace heavily regulated financial professionals to provide services enables the complex financial services to be hidden behind the veil of tech",
"so that regulators cannot",
"understand the risks",
"and may deregulate",
"From this point of view, intelligent finance has a gene for regulation arbitrage",
"the complexity and depth of expertise of the",
"industry makes the cost of its human resources high, therefore excluding consumers with lower income",
"Al can reduce",
"cost and service price, and hence promote the financial inclusion of the lower-income class. In",
"past decades, the history of",
"finance has also been the history of",
"innovation and regulation. This",
"is about how",
"law can balance the",
"extremes: the benefits and risks of innovation",
"FinTech",
"The combination of finance and tech",
"can lead to greater efficiency, but there is also a risk of \"too fast to save\".",
"\"the future of cy-fi only appears to be accelerating as financial engineers chase the speed of light",
"Such velocity",
"give rise to",
"new systemic risk",
"\"[a]utomated programmes responding to bad data or nefarious stimuli can cause catastrophic harm",
"before",
"rescue",
"can be implemented",
"Law and regulation often lag",
"tech",
"Under",
"pressure of",
"industry",
"law and regulation often tolerate a trial-and-error approach and deregulate innovation. It is often too late",
"to step in after",
"risks",
"accumulate and turn into",
"disaster",
"The combination",
"tech",
"greatly reduces transaction costs, meaning",
"non-professionals can",
"transact",
"This",
"means",
"more",
"irrational investment frenzy and bubble",
"Robot advisors",
"are able to",
"perform",
"behaviours and tasks without direct",
"intervention",
"react autonomously",
"and execute instructions",
"could",
"learn social skills to communicate",
"have",
"ability to proactively carry out goal-oriented activities. They can react and observe the communication environment. They have the ability to act like a human",
"for certain acts",
"responsiveness",
"mobility and representativeness",
"allow robot advisors to demonstrate characteristics similar to human agents",
"However, smart investment advisors are not conscious",
"Robot advisors have changed the legal relationship between",
"advisor and",
"client",
"Natural person investment advisors do business face-to-face",
"whereas robot",
"s interact",
"via",
"AI",
"Investment advisors provide investment services after they learn about the demands of their investors. Their advice is customised and personalised",
"Under the robot",
"consulting behaviour is pre-set in the algorithm",
"The legal relationship at the service providing",
"the contractual relationship between the investors and the financial institution",
"The",
"system",
"was originally designed to regulate financial practitioners faces",
"difficulties of application in the robot",
"model",
"the legal relationship at the programming stage, which is a core part of the business",
"lacks legal regulation at present. The robot advisors' programmes are",
"developed by the tech",
"department of third-party institutions",
"The core of their programme is the algorithm",
"The",
"services are pre-set in the algorithm",
"which is regarded as a technical activity",
"out of",
"reach of the traditional regulatory framework. The degree of intelligence in the pre-set algorithm for robo-advisors varies",
"How can regulators regulate pre-set",
"services by algorithm? There is no ready answer",
"FinTech weaves a seemingly convenient and transparent veil",
"but hides complex financial intermediaries and legal relations",
"It is difficult for regulators to understand the nature and risk",
"\"the swiftness of financial innovation simply laps the slowness of rulemaking",
"AI algorithms involving the technology of neural networks based on thousands of variables and millions of pages of data are more complex than traditional",
"programmes. Thus, it is difficult for regulators to determine the specific data related to the results. Robot advisors often use large amounts of data to make decisions by consolidating",
"across platforms, which also makes it difficult for regulators to explain specific factors that influence algorithmic behaviour and finally identify the responsible parties. The emergence of robot advisors",
"blurs the boundaries of financial institutions and technical institutions, resulting in",
"infinite intermediaries",
"Regulators are faced with the difficulty of identifying the",
"responsible persons",
"Fiduciary duty is the legal response to uncontrollable and unpredictable risks and uses ex post penalties to deter wrongful conduct",
"The duty of loyalty is a core fiduciary duty",
"The duty of care requires the fiduciary to act as a prudent",
"advisor",
"and to have reasonable care, skill and vigilance",
"If they act in accordance with general practice in the process of engagement, they are not responsible for investment failures",
"Due to the complexity of financial products",
"it is necessary to require investment advisors to sell the right products to the right investors under the suitability obligation. An advisor should not recommend high-risk products to investors without the corresponding risk appetite",
"However, the robot advisor itself does not owe a fiduciary duty because AI lacks legal personality",
"that",
"worsens and further conceals these problems"
] | [
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] | 1,577,865,600 | 79 |
072867196da3712b0f10e28aa28c53a3cc667c33151b5d9de036bb4c90825ae9 | Decline cascades---nuclear war. | null | Dr. Mathew Maavak 21, PhD in Risk Foresight from the Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, External Researcher (PLATBIDAFO) at the Kazimieras Simonavicius University, Expert and Regular Commentator on Risk-Related Geostrategic Issues at the Russian International Affairs Council, “Horizon 2030: Will Emerging Risks Unravel Our Global Systems?”, Salus Journal – The Australian Journal for Law Enforcement, Security and Intelligence Professionals, Volume 9, Number 1, p. 2-8 | Second Depression will implicat global security risks snowball to crisis banking farming, health and retail are entwined stressors induce realignments with the U S and China ripples will be felt debt-laden workforce at nuclear and chemical plants with a surge in accidents catalyst behind WWII was Depression history repeats itself Anti-Semitism may forc Israel reprisal Balloon s include Iran US-China over Taiwan or S C S Korea and India nuclear war or Russia | scholars regard global social instability as the greatest threat The catalyst has been postulated to be a Second Great Depression which, in turn, will have profound implicat ions for global security and national integrity emerging risks are intertwined Tight couplings in global systems have enabled risks accrued in one area to snowball in to a full-blown crisis elsewhere banking , utility, farming, health care and retail sectors etc. are increasingly entwined . Risks accrued in one system may cascade into an unforeseen crisis the behaviour of intersecting systems is determined by complex and largely invisible interactions at the substratum a global financial crash will lead to a trickle-down meltdown , impacting all areas of human activity and lead to a Second Great Depression Economic stressors may induce radical geopolitical realignments . Bullions now carry more weight than NATO’s security guarantees in Eastern Europe this erosion in regional trust was based on historical precedents with two global Titanics – the U S and China on a collision course the seismic ripples will be felt far , wide and for a considerable period What happens to the environment when our economies implode ? Think of a debt-laden workforce at sensitive nuclear and chemical plants , along with a concomitant surge in industrial accidents ? Economic stressors pose the biggest threats to the environment global risks can no longer be boxed into a taxonomical silo Our JIT world aggravates the cascading potential of risks Production and delivery delays will eventually require industrial overcompensation Interlinked ecosystems may be hijacked The environmental fallouts loom like a Sword of Damocles over this decade The primary catalyst behind WWII was the Great Depression history often repeats itself , expect familiar bogeymen to reappear in societies roiling with impoverishment Anti-Semitism may reach alarming proportions possibly forc ing Israel to undertake reprisal operations how will affected nations react? Balloon effect s present a classic problematic Contemporary geopolitical risks include a possible Iran -Israel war; US-China military confrontation over Taiwan or the S outh C hina S ea; North Korea n proliferation of nuclear and missile technologies ; an India -Pakistan nuclear war ; an Iranian closure of the Straits of Hormuz ; fundamentalist-driven implosion in the Islamic world ; or a nuclear confrontation between NATO and Russia | global social instability greatest threat Second Great Depression profound implicat global security intertwined Tight couplings global systems one area snowball to crisis health entwined one system cascade unforeseen crisis intersecting systems complex invisible interactions substratum trickle-down meltdown all areas Second Great Depression radical geopolitical realignments security guarantees Eastern Europe erosion regional trust U S collision course seismic ripples far wide considerable period environment economies implode debt-laden nuclear chemical plants surge industrial accidents Economic stressors biggest threats taxonomical silo cascading potential overcompensation hijacked environmental fallouts Sword of Damocles primary catalyst WWII Great Depression repeats itself familiar bogeymen reappear impoverishment forc reprisal operations affected nations Balloon s Iran US-China military confrontation Taiwan S C S North Korea nuclear missile technologies India nuclear war Iranian closure Hormuz fundamentalist-driven implosion in the Islamic world nuclear confrontation NATO Russia | ['Various scholars and institutions regard global social instability as the greatest threat facing this decade. The catalyst has been postulated to be a Second Great Depression which, in turn, will have profound implications for global security and national integrity. This paper, written from a broad systems perspective, illustrates how emerging risks are getting more complex and intertwined; blurring boundaries between the economic, environmental, geopolitical, societal and technological taxonomy used by the World Economic Forum for its annual global risk forecasts. Tight couplings in our global systems have also enabled risks accrued in one area to snowball into a full-blown crisis elsewhere. The COVID-19 pandemic and its socioeconomic fallouts exemplify this systemic chain-reaction. Onceinexorable forces of globalization are rupturing as the current global system can no longer be sustained due to poor governance and runaway wealth fractionation. The coronavirus pandemic is also enabling Big Tech to expropriate the levers of governments and mass communications worldwide. This paper concludes by highlighting how this development poses a dilemma for security professionals.', 'Key Words: Global Systems, Emergence, VUCA, COVID-9, Social Instability, Big Tech, Great Reset', 'INTRODUCTION', 'The new decade is witnessing rising volatility across global systems. Pick any random “system” today and chart out its trajectory: Are our education systems becoming more robust and affordable? What about food security? Are our healthcare systems improving? Are our pension systems sound? Wherever one looks, there are dark clouds gathering on a global horizon marked by volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity (VUCA).', 'But what exactly is a global system? Our planet itself is an autonomous and selfsustaining mega-system, marked by periodic cycles and elemental vagaries. Human activities within however are not system isolates as our banking, utility, farming, healthcare and retail sectors etc. are increasingly entwined. Risks accrued in one system may cascade into an unforeseen crisis within and/or without (Choo, Smith & McCusker, 2007). Scholars call this phenomenon “emergence”; one where the behaviour of intersecting systems is determined by complex and largely invisible interactions at the substratum (Goldstein, 1999; Holland, 1998).', 'The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is a case in point. While experts remain divided over the source and morphology of the virus, the contagion has ramified into a global health crisis and supply chain nightmare. It is also tilting the geopolitical balance. China is the largest exporter of intermediate products, and had generated nearly 20% of global imports in 2015 alone (Cousin, 2020). The pharmaceutical sector is particularly vulnerable. Nearly “85% of medicines in the U.S. strategic national stockpile” sources components from China (Owens, 2020).', 'An initial run on respiratory masks has now been eclipsed by rowdy queues at supermarkets and the bankruptcy of small businesses. The entire global population – save for major pockets such as Sweden, Belarus, Taiwan and Japan – have been subjected to cyclical lockdowns and quarantines. Never before in history have humans faced such a systemic, borderless calamity.', 'COVID-19 represents a classic emergent crisis that necessitates real-time response and adaptivity in a real-time world, particularly since the global Just-in-Time (JIT) production and delivery system serves as both an enabler and vector for transboundary risks. From a systems thinking perspective, emerging risk management should therefore address a whole spectrum of activity across the economic, environmental, geopolitical, societal and technological (EEGST) taxonomy. Every emerging threat can be slotted into this taxonomy – a reason why it is used by the World Economic Forum (WEF) for its annual global risk exercises (Maavak, 2019a). As traditional forces of globalization unravel, security professionals should take cognizance of emerging threats through a systems thinking approach.', 'METHODOLOGY', 'An EEGST sectional breakdown was adopted to illustrate a sampling of extreme risks facing the world for the 2020-2030 decade. The transcendental quality of emerging risks, as outlined on Figure 1, below, was primarily informed by the following pillars of systems thinking (Rickards, 2020):', '• Diminishing diversity (or increasing homogeneity) of actors in the global system (Boli & Thomas, 1997; Meyer, 2000; Young et al, 2006);', '• Interconnections in the global system (Homer-Dixon et al, 2015; Lee & Preston, 2012);', '• Interactions of actors, events and components in the global system (Buldyrev et al, 2010; Bashan et al, 2013; Homer-Dixon et al, 2015); and', '• Adaptive qualities in particular systems (Bodin & Norberg, 2005; Scheffer et al, 2012) Since scholastic material on this topic remains somewhat inchoate, this paper buttresses many of its contentions through secondary (i.e. news/institutional) sources.', 'ECONOMY', 'According to Professor Stanislaw Drozdz (2018) of the Polish Academy of Sciences, “a global financial crash of a previously unprecedented scale is highly probable” by the mid- 2020s. This will lead to a trickle-down meltdown, impacting all areas of human activity.', 'The economist John Mauldin (2018) similarly warns that the “2020s might be the worst decade in US history” and may lead to a Second Great Depression. Other forecasts are equally alarming. According to the International Institute of Finance, global debt may have surpassed $255 trillion by 2020 (IIF, 2019). Yet another study revealed that global debts and liabilities amounted to a staggering $2.5 quadrillion (Ausman, 2018). The reader should note that these figures were tabulated before the COVID-19 outbreak.', 'The IMF singles out widening income inequality as the trigger for the next Great Depression (Georgieva, 2020). The wealthiest 1% now own more than twice as much wealth as 6.9 billion people (Coffey et al, 2020) and this chasm is widening with each passing month. COVID-19 had, in fact, boosted global billionaire wealth to an unprecedented $10.2 trillion by July 2020 (UBS-PWC, 2020). Global GDP, worth $88 trillion in 2019, may have contracted by 5.2% in 2020 (World Bank, 2020).', 'As the Greek historian Plutarch warned in the 1st century AD: “An imbalance between rich and poor is the oldest and most fatal ailment of all republics” (Mauldin, 2014). The stability of a society, as Aristotle argued even earlier, depends on a robust middle element or middle class. At the rate the global middle class is facing catastrophic debt and unemployment levels, widespread social disaffection may morph into outright anarchy (Maavak, 2012; DCDC, 2007).', 'Economic stressors, in transcendent VUCA fashion, may also induce radical geopolitical realignments. Bullions now carry more weight than NATO’s security guarantees in Eastern Europe. After Poland repatriated 100 tons of gold from the Bank of England in 2019, Slovakia, Serbia and Hungary quickly followed suit.', 'According to former Slovak Premier Robert Fico, this erosion in regional trust was based on historical precedents – in particular the 1938 Munich Agreement which ceded Czechoslovakia’s Sudetenland to Nazi Germany. As Fico reiterated (Dudik & Tomek, 2019):', '“You can hardly trust even the closest allies after the Munich Agreement… I guarantee that if something happens, we won’t see a single gram of this (offshore-held) gold. Let’s do it (repatriation) as quickly as possible.” (Parenthesis added by author).', 'President Aleksandar Vucic of Serbia (a non-NATO nation) justified his central bank’s gold-repatriation program by hinting at economic headwinds ahead: “We see in which direction the crisis in the world is moving” (Dudik & Tomek, 2019). Indeed, with two global Titanics – the United States and China – set on a collision course with a quadrillions-denominated iceberg in the middle, and a viral outbreak on its tip, the seismic ripples will be felt far, wide and for a considerable period.', 'A reality check is nonetheless needed here: Can additional bullions realistically circumvallate the economies of 80 million plus peoples in these Eastern European nations, worth a collective $1.8 trillion by purchasing power parity? Gold however is a potent psychological symbol as it represents national sovereignty and economic reassurance in a potentially hyperinflationary world. The portents are clear: The current global economic system will be weakened by rising nationalism and autarkic demands. Much uncertainty remains ahead. Mauldin (2018) proposes the introduction of Old Testament-style debt jubilees to facilitate gradual national recoveries. The World Economic Forum, on the other hand, has long proposed a “Great Reset” by 2030; a socialist utopia where “you’ll own nothing and you’ll be happy” (WEF, 2016).', 'In the final analysis, COVID-19 is not the root cause of the current global economic turmoil; it is merely an accelerant to a burning house of cards that was left smouldering since the 2008 Great Recession (Maavak, 2020a). We also see how the four main pillars of systems thinking (diversity, interconnectivity, interactivity and “adaptivity”) form the mise en scene in a VUCA decade.', 'ENVIRONMENTAL', 'What happens to the environment when our economies implode? Think of a debt-laden workforce at sensitive nuclear and chemical plants, along with a concomitant surge in industrial accidents? Economic stressors, workforce demoralization and rampant profiteering – rather than manmade climate change – arguably pose the biggest threats to the environment. In a WEF report, Buehler et al (2017) made the following pre-COVID-19 observation:', 'The ILO estimates that the annual cost to the global economy from accidents and work-related diseases alone is a staggering $3 trillion. Moreover, a recent report suggests the world’s 3.2 billion workers are increasingly unwell, with the vast majority facing significant economic insecurity: 77% work in part-time, temporary, “vulnerable” or unpaid jobs.', 'Shouldn’t this phenomenon be better categorized as a societal or economic risk rather than an environmental one? In line with the systems thinking approach, however, global risks can no longer be boxed into a taxonomical silo. Frazzled workforces may precipitate another Bhopal (1984), Chernobyl (1986), Deepwater Horizon (2010) or Flint water crisis (2014). These disasters were notably not the result of manmade climate change. Neither was the Fukushima nuclear disaster (2011) nor the Indian Ocean tsunami (2004). Indeed, the combustion of a long-overlooked cargo of 2,750 tonnes of ammonium nitrate had nearly levelled the city of Beirut, Lebanon, on Aug 4 2020. The explosion left 204 dead; 7,500 injured; US$15 billion in property damages; and an estimated 300,000 people homeless (Urbina, 2020). The environmental costs have yet to be adequately tabulated.', 'Environmental disasters are more attributable to Black Swan events, systems breakdowns and corporate greed rather than to mundane human activity.', 'Our JIT world aggravates the cascading potential of risks (Korowicz, 2012). Production and delivery delays, caused by the COVID-19 outbreak, will eventually require industrial overcompensation. This will further stress senior executives, workers, machines and a variety of computerized systems. The trickle-down effects will likely include substandard products, contaminated food and a general lowering in health and safety standards (Maavak, 2019a). Unpaid or demoralized sanitation workers may also resort to indiscriminate waste dumping. Many cities across the United States (and elsewhere in the world) are no longer recycling wastes due to prohibitive costs in the global corona-economy (Liacko, 2021).', 'Even in good times, strict protocols on waste disposals were routinely ignored. While Sweden championed the global climate change narrative, its clothing flagship H&M was busy covering up toxic effluences disgorged by vendors along the Citarum River in Java, Indonesia. As a result, countless children among 14 million Indonesians straddling the “world’s most polluted river” began to suffer from dermatitis, intestinal problems, developmental disorders, renal failure, chronic bronchitis and cancer (DW, 2020). It is also in cauldrons like the Citarum River where pathogens may mutate with emergent ramifications.', 'On an equally alarming note, depressed economic conditions have traditionally provided a waste disposal boon for organized crime elements. Throughout 1980s, the Calabriabased ‘Ndrangheta mafia – in collusion with governments in Europe and North America – began to dump radioactive wastes along the coast of Somalia. Reeling from pollution and revenue loss, Somali fisherman eventually resorted to mass piracy (Knaup, 2008).', 'The coast of Somalia is now a maritime hotspot, and exemplifies an entwined form of economic-environmental-geopolitical-societal emergence. In a VUCA world, indiscriminate waste dumping can unexpectedly morph into a Black Hawk Down incident. The laws of unintended consequences are governed by actors, interconnections, interactions and adaptations in a system under study – as outlined in the methodology section.', 'Environmentally-devastating industrial sabotages – whether by disgruntled workers, industrial competitors, ideological maniacs or terrorist groups – cannot be discounted in a VUCA world. Immiserated societies, in stark defiance of climate change diktats, may resort to dirty coal plants and wood stoves for survival. Interlinked ecosystems, particularly water resources, may be hijacked by nationalist sentiments. The environmental fallouts of critical infrastructure (CI) breakdowns loom like a Sword of Damocles over this decade.', 'GEOPOLITICAL', 'The primary catalyst behind WWII was the Great Depression. Since history often repeats itself, expect familiar bogeymen to reappear in societies roiling with impoverishment and ideological clefts. Anti-Semitism – a societal risk on its own – may reach alarming proportions in the West (Reuters, 2019), possibly forcing Israel to undertake reprisal operations inside allied nations. If that happens, how will affected nations react? Will security resources be reallocated to protect certain minorities (or the Top 1%) while larger segments of society are exposed to restive forces? Balloon effects like these present a classic VUCA problematic.', 'Contemporary geopolitical risks include a possible Iran-Israel war; US-China military confrontation over Taiwan or the South China Sea; North Korean proliferation of nuclear and missile technologies; an India-Pakistan nuclear war; an Iranian closure of the Straits of Hormuz; fundamentalist-driven implosion in the Islamic world; or a nuclear confrontation between NATO and Russia. Fears that the Jan 3 2020 assassination of Iranian Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani might lead to WWIII were grossly overblown. From a systems perspective, the killing of Soleimani did not fundamentally change the actor-interconnection-interaction adaptivity equation in the Middle East. Soleimani was simply a cog who got replaced.'] | [
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cd9739adf1cd303abb10d22708f7f2f6d90ac6509d46f7f5fba8e88773f1c31e | Financial volatility empowers populist reactionaries. | null | Gautam Mukunda 18, Research Fellow at the Center for Public Leadership at Harvard Kennedy School. Previously, he was on the faculty of Harvard Business School, and he received his PhD from MIT in Political Science, “The Social and Political Costs of the Financial Crisis, 10 Years Later,” Harvard Business Review, 9/25/18, https://hbr.org/2018/09/the-social-and-political-costs-of-the-financial-crisis-10-years-later | financial crisis polarization and populist movements culminating in Brexit and Trump when the economy collapses , people suffer , and blame the people in charge the government chose bailouts . This strikes Americans as unjust the crisis corroded the trust required for democracy voters lose trust in the elite . And populations turn to Populist outsiders | It is hard to overstate the sheer economic cost of the 2008 financial crisis. The combination of increased expenditures and decreased revenues is likely to cost the United States government well over $2 trillion Broader measures are even more damning But the most important effects of the financial crisis may be political and social The years after the crisis saw sharp increases in political polarization and the rise of populist movements in Europe and the U.S., culminating in Brexit in the UK and Trump Such increases in political divides are a predictable response to financial crises across eras and countries The severity of the crisis was such that probably no government response could have eliminated these political and social consequences ; when the economy collapses , people will suffer , and they will blame the people in charge Fundamentally, the economy was the actions of the leaders of the American financial sector, and the U.S. government chose to “punish” those leaders by giving them enormous sums of money through bailouts . This may have been the right decision It might have been economically optimal, It nonetheless strikes most Americans as fundamentally unjust . People given the chance to punish someone who has betrayed them in a game, for example, will generally take it even if doing so leaves them worse off. They explicitly choose fairness over efficiency. The arguments in favor of the government’s response to the financial crisis all hinged on the logic of justice as the rescue of the American economy at the lowest possible financial cost. These arguments, however, entirely ignore the powerful and far more common belief that justice is fairness. Efficiency may have required rewarding people who had acted badly and punishing the blameless but that did not make it fair. Perhaps even worse was the extent to which the government focused its efforts on stabilizing the financial sector instead of directly aiding most Americans Even if we accept the argument that focusing almost entirely on the health of the financial sector was the best way to handle the crisis, this approach creates a series of problems. removes any pressure on the sector to permanently change behaviors that led to the crisis . Even worse , though, it corroded the bonds of trust required for the functioning of democracy . It’s entirely reasonable that many voters would lose trust in the governing elite . And when that trust is broken , democratic populations will turn to politicians who promise to overturn that elite Populist movements often turn to outsiders to lead them. The problem with voting for complete outsiders, however, is that they don’t have a track record The result is either more of the same or a government that is so discombobulated that it cannot function. The task facing Trump’s successors is simple must break this cycle successors must govern in a way that is seen to be just. That means demonstrating that those who break the law will be punished , even if they are wealthy and powerful . | sheer economic cost increased expenditures decreased revenues more damning political social sharp increases political polarization populist movements Brexit UK Trump predictable response financial crises severity of the crisis no government response eliminated political social consequences collapses people will suffer and they will blame the people in charge “punish” enormous sums of money through bailouts It nonetheless strikes most Americans as fundamentally unjust explicitly choose fairness over efficiency. powerful common belief justice is fairness. Efficiency but that did not make it fair. stabilizing the financial directly aiding Americans removes pressure permanently change behaviors led to the crisis worse corroded the trust required for democracy entirely reasonable lose trust in the elite when that trust is broken overturn that elite Populist outsiders must break this cycle punished even if they are wealthy and powerful | ['It is hard to overstate the sheer economic cost of the 2008 financial crisis. The combination of increased expenditures and decreased revenues resulting from the crisis from 2008 to 2010 is likely to cost the United States government well over $2 trillion, more than twice the cost of the 17-year-long war in Afghanistan. Broader measures are even more damning. Measured by decrease in per capita United States GDP compared to the pre-crisis trend, by 2016 the crisis had cost the country 15% of GDP, or $4.6 trillion. Such numbers are too vast to be understood in any meaningful way, but one on a smaller scale may be even more powerful. A 2018 study by the Federal Reserve Board found that the crisis cost every single American approximately $70,000. Just in dollar terms, the crisis was arguably the most significant event of the 21st century so far, and the largest single economic downturn since the Great Depression. If the only effects of the financial crisis were economic, it would still be worth revisiting 10 years later.', 'But the most important effects of the financial crisis may be political and social, not economic. The years after the crisis saw sharp increases in political polarization and the rise of populist movements on both the left and right in Europe and the U.S., culminating in Brexit in the UK and the election of Donald Trump here — by some measures the country’s most polarizing president ever. Such increases in political divides are a predictable response to financial crises across eras and countries. Even the economic recovery experienced by the U.S. and, to a lesser extent, Britain, is not enough to neutralize the long-term political and social effects of the collapse.', 'The severity of the crisis was such that probably no government response could have eliminated these political and social consequences; when the economy collapses, people will suffer, and they will blame the people in charge. In my opinion, the way that the Bush and Obama administrations chose to respond to the crisis greatly exacerbated the change in American political culture produced by the crisis.', 'Fundamentally, the American (and world) economy was crippled by the actions of the leaders of the American financial sector, and the U.S. government chose to “punish” those leaders by giving them enormous sums of money through bailouts. This may have been the right decision. It may have been necessary to prevent a second Great Depression. It might even have been economically optimal, in the sense that it prevented an even worse outcome at the lowest possible cost (I do not believe this, but let’s assume it is true for the sake of argument). It nonetheless strikes most Americans as fundamentally unjust.', 'Justice is generally conceived of in one of two ways. The first, and more common, one is that justice is fairness. In a fair world, good behavior is rewarded and bad acts (usually meaning acts that contravene generally accepted norms) are punished. Economists and people with significant training in economics, however, often conceive of justice as efficiency — that is, the just outcome is the one that maximizes welfare. Although this is how economists often see it, most people have a very different perspective. Psychology experiments show that most people — and even monkeys! — believe that justice is fairness, and believe it so strongly that they will pay significant costs to protest unfair outcomes. People given the chance to punish someone who has betrayed them in a game, for example, will generally take it even if doing so leaves them worse off. They explicitly choose fairness over efficiency.', 'The arguments in favor of the government’s response to the financial crisis — ranging from TARP, to the nationalization of AIG, to allowing bailed-out banks to continue to pay bonuses to their employees — all hinged on the logic of justice as the rescue of the American economy at the lowest possible financial cost. These arguments, however, entirely ignore the powerful and far more common belief that justice is fairness. Efficiency may have required rewarding people who had acted badly and punishing the blameless — but that did not make it fair.', 'One way to highlight the scale of this unfairness is to look at the contrast between how bailed-out banks and automotive companies were handled. When the government rescued major American banks, it did not fire even one of their CEOs. The bailouts did not prevent the banks from generously paying their executives, and paying dividends to shareholders, rather than retaining capital to increase stability. When the government bailed out AIG, it did not impose a single penny of loss on any of AIG’s creditors. If you were a player in the American financial system, the government did everything possible to make sure that you did not suffer consequences from the crash your industry had caused.', 'When GM and Chrysler were bailed out, on the other hand, their CEOs were fired and their unionized workforces were forced to accept substantial pay cuts, even though they had nothing to do with the causes of the crisis. Each individual decision may, in some sense, have been the right one when measured purely in terms of economic efficiency. In aggregate, however, they gave the appearance of a government willing to spare no expense to shelter Wall Street from the consequences of its own mistakes, while largely unwilling to make similar efforts for others.', 'Perhaps even worse was the extent to which the government focused its efforts on stabilizing the financial sector instead of directly aiding most Americans. This was best symbolized by former Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s approach to the response to the financial crisis. He explained, for example, why the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP), which was meant to help Americans who were facing eviction because they were unable to pay their mortgages, had done little, because its real purpose was to “foam the runway” for banks that had made the loans — that is, he saw it as a program meant to help banks, not the customers to whom they had made loans, often under predatory terms.', 'Even if we accept the argument that focusing almost entirely on the health of the financial sector was the best way to handle the crisis, this approach creates a series of problems. It largely removes any pressure on the sector to permanently change the behaviors that led to the crisis. Even worse, though, it corroded the bonds of trust required for the functioning of democracy.', 'It’s entirely reasonable that many voters would lose trust in the governing elite. And when that trust is broken, democratic populations will turn to politicians who promise to overturn that elite, whether it’s Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, Boris Johnson, or Nigel Farage. Populist movements often turn to outsiders to lead them. The problem with voting for complete outsiders, however, is that they don’t have a track record. You don’t know what they really believe. And they don’t always know how to pull the levers of power. Once in office, they can turn on you and pursue policies very different from the ones they promised, they can be manipulated by insiders, or they can simply be ineffective in trying to enact their agenda. The result is either more of the same or a government that is so discombobulated that it cannot function.', 'We can see different versions of this unfolding now in both the U.S. and UK. In the UK, within days of winning the vote to leave the EU, leading Brexiters started walking back key campaign promises to redirect EU funding toward Britain’s national health services, cut immigration, and harden Britain’s borders. Now, two years after the vote, the government has been unable to cobble together a deal to actually leave the EU. The result has been a government frozen in inaction, constant threats to PM Teresa May’s authority, the resignation of key officials, and continued confusion about what to do next.', 'In the U.S., Donald Trump has been either unable or unwilling to aggressively pursue the populist policies he promised during the campaign, with the exception of cutting back on refugee admissions and, to some extent, imposing tariffs on foreign trade. During his campaign, Trump promised to raise taxes on the rich and repeatedly attacked Goldman Sachs (and attacked his opponent for giving paid speeches to them). Once in office, he has cut taxes on the wealthy, filled his administration with Goldman alums, and sought to limit the power of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau — in essence, rewarding the financial elites whose failure helped lead to his election.', 'The task facing May’s and Trump’s successors is simple. He or she, Democrat or Republican, Labour or Tory, must break this cycle. He or she will have to have both the will and the skill to address major concerns about the economy, ranging from stagnating median income to increasing inequality to the fundamental economic insecurity of most people. Beyond that, however, the two successors must govern in a way that is seen to be just. That means, for example, demonstrating that those who break the law will be punished, even if they are wealthy and powerful. A leader seeking to assuage these sorts of concerns, for example, might seek to emphasize white-collar crime, which is still too often ignored by prosecutors, and for which the overall number of prosecutions in the U.S. is at a 20-year low. Whatever their approach, future leaders should be guided by the idea that has always underpinned democratic societies — justice is about much more than economic efficiency. It fundamentally also requires fairness.'] | [
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7c56508ac60fc7bcdbc50222f601c70a6093655757fe26c7827c13340fc261f0 | Nuclear war. | null | Dr. Jacques E. C. Hymans 22, PhD in Government from Harvard, Associate Professor of International Relations at the University of Southern California, “Responses to Meier and Vieluf”, The Nonproliferation Review, 28:1-3, 52-54, DOI: 10.1080/10736700.2022.2093513 | nuclear populists are dangerous populism is a gateway drug to internal violence and civil war upheaval in a nuclear power increases likelihood of a nuclear incident divisions do not have to arrive at civil war to increase instability Populists are insensitive to nuclear threats deterrence starts to suffer credibility dilemmas a populist admin would trade Pittsburgh for Portland. foreign powers could calculate they will not be punished for certain targets distraction by internal wrangling could affect denouement of a time-sensitive nuclear crisis powers could initiate nuclear crisis to intensify domestic divisions The establishment reaction increase instability as much as populists themselves by sowing confusion about chain of command about humanity’s survival with populists the more I study the more pessimistic I become | I have argued that nuclear-armed establishments are dangerous Now I will also argue nuclear -armed populists are dangerous The biggest problem is that populism is a gateway drug to internal political violence revolution and civil war And needless to say serious domestic upheaval in a nuclear power also increases the likelihood of a nuclear incident the first-ever populist government in history was led by the Jacobin faction that drove the French Revolution forward The Jacobins expressed a radical populist faith in the power of “redemptive violence” by “the people.” France and the world are lucky that nuclear physics was not very far advanced in the Jacobins’ day. the language of populism is the language of revolution and civil war and pretend revolutionaries can easily be carried along by the tide of social resentments that they have irresponsibly stirred up We need to consider worst-case scenarios. domestic divisions fomented by populists do not have to arrive at their logical end point of revolution and civil war to increase deterrence instability and the chances of a nuclear incident Populists are likely to be insensitive to nuclear threats to the political strongholds of their domestic opponents the question of whether the United States would be willing to trade “Pittsburgh for Paris” has been around for decades The new problem that populism creates is that even homeland deterrence starts to suffer from the same credibility dilemmas as extended deterrence we now also have to ask whether a populist admin istration in Washington would be willing to trade Pittsburgh for Portland. deterrence theory’s standard assumption that a nuclear threat to any part of the homeland will be treated as a threat to the whole homeland can no longer be taken for granted foreign powers could calculate that they will not be punished for striking at certain targets within the country’s borders the longest-range North Korean missile that is currently operational has enough range for a nuclear attack against Seattle but not Mar-a-Lago Would the same president who formally designated Seattle as an “anarchist jurisdiction” be greatly concerned by a credible threat of a North Korean strike against it? Probably—but is “probably” a good enough answer for homeland deterrence credibility? Populists are likely to exploit their control over homeland deterrence to demand political concessions from their domestic political opponents At the heart of populism is a disrespect for the principle of equal application of the laws governance becomes a pure power game, and populist rulers notably exploit crises as opportunities to bring domestic political opponents to their knees There is every reason to assume that a populist in full command of the nuclear and defense establishment would similarly take advantage of a nuclear crisis to conduct such a shakedown populists in power will charge a high price for adequately responding to nuclear threats against their domestic opponents’ political strongholds. the distraction s caused by internal political wrangling could greatly affect the denouement of a time-sensitive nuclear crisis . Foreign powers could also be tempted to initiate a nuclear crisis precisely in order to intensify their adversary’s domestic divisions The establishment ’s reaction to populism is likely to increase deterrence instability at least as much as the actions of the populists themselves the establishment’s effort to fend off populists could itself dramatically increase deterrence instability by sowing confusion about the chain of command This hypothesis is not mere speculation I would be relieved to discover that I am being overly pessimistic about humanity’s chances of survival with populists in charge of nuclear arsenals But the more I study the issue , the more pessimistic I become . | nuclear populists dangerous The biggest problem gateway drug internal political violence revolution civil war domestic upheaval nuclear power likelihood of a nuclear incident France the world nuclear physics was not very far advanced Jacobins’ day. language of populism language of revolution civil war tide of social resentments worst-case scenarios. do not have to arrive at their logical end point revolution and civil war increase instability chances of a nuclear incident insensitive to nuclear threats strongholds opponents new problem even homeland deterrence suffer credibility dilemmas extended deterrence admin Washington would willing to trade Pittsburgh for Portland. standard assumption threat whole can no longer be taken for granted foreign powers calculate will not be punished striking at certain targets within the country’s borders Seattle not Mar-a-Lago exploit their control demand political concessions domestic political opponents disrespect equal application of the laws exploit crises opportunities populist take advantage nuclear crisis charge a high price responding to nuclear threats distraction internal political wrangling greatly affect denouement of a time-sensitive nuclear crisis powers initiate nuclear crisis intensify domestic divisions establishment reaction increase at least as much as the actions of the populists themselves itself dramatically increase deterrence instability confusion chain of command mere speculation humanity’s survival populists nuclear arsenals the more I study the issue more pessimistic I become | ['Building on Meier and Vieluf’s accounting of the dangers of populism ', 'I have argued that nuclear-armed establishments are more dangerous than Meier and Vieluf suggest. Now I will also argue that nuclear-armed populists are dangerous for even more reasons than Meier and Vieluf enumerate.', 'Meier and Vieluf’s article does not do enough with its basic definition of nationalist populism as a black–white oppositional stance toward internal as well as external enemies. If we take that definition seriously, it becomes apparent that the biggest problem stemming from the rise of populists is not that they might ignore the advice of traditional nuclear and defense establishments and behave carelessly toward foreign powers. The biggest problem is that populism is a gateway drug to internal political violence, revolution, and civil war.12 And, perhaps needless to say, serious domestic upheaval in a nuclear power also increases the likelihood of a nuclear incident of some kind. ', 'Perhaps the first-ever populist government in history was led by the Jacobin faction that drove the French Revolution forward from 1792 to 1794.13 The Jacobins expressed a radical populist faith in the power of “redemptive violence” by “the people.” 14 They made war both inside and outside France. To quote historian Brian Singer, the Jacobins’ violence was directed neither “at a well-defined enemy” nor “at some limited, short-term end, but to the creation of a new regime, a new humanity.” 15 In short, they wanted to raze the old world to the ground—or die trying. The Jacobins’ favorite metaphor for their violence was lightning, which materializes from out of nowhere to simultaneously destroy and enlighten the dark world it strikes. Their interest in lightning was not only metaphorical; Jacobin ideologues such as Jean-Paul Marat were serious students of the new science of electricity.16 France and the world are lucky that nuclear physics was not very far advanced in the Jacobins’ day.', 'None of the contemporary nuclear-armed populist leaders listed by Meier and Vieluf is a modern-day Jacobin. Most populists are merely unprincipled con artists who prey on atomized and insecure sections of the public, manipulating them to gain personal wealth and power. Even so, the language of populism is the language of revolution and civil war, and pretend revolutionaries can easily be carried along by the tide of social resentments that they have irresponsibly stirred up. Take, for instance, Trump and his followers’ dismal trajectory to January 6, 2021. We need to consider worst-case scenarios.', 'Trump did not actually want a civil war in the United States, but his rhetoric emboldened the not-so-small number of Americans who do. A rigorous time-series analysis found that Trump’s presidential run in 2016 was associated with an abrupt, statistically significant, and durable increase in violent attacks by domestic far-right extremists.17 For instance, the leading ideologist of the neo-Nazi group Atomwaffen Division, James Mason, wrote in July 2017, “I am not ashamed to say that I shed a tear of joy at [Trump’s] win.” 18 Far from standing back and standing by, Mason preached direct action to “accelerate” the onset of a society-purifying race war that he believed would push the Trump administration into embracing full-blown fascism. In May 2017, an Atomwaffen member, National Guard veteran, and onetime physics major named Brandon Russell was arrested for plotting to attack the Turkey Point nuclear power plant, among other targets. Police later also found traces of thorium and americium in Russell’s bedroom.19', 'The domestic divisions fomented by populists do not have to arrive at their logical end point of revolution and civil war to increase deterrence instability and the chances of a nuclear incident. Below I elaborate three more specific hypotheses on the deterrence consequences of internally divisive populist governments. The hypotheses are speculative, but they logically follow from the definition of populism and should therefore serve as useful points for further discussion of Meier and Vieluf’s core idea.', 'Hypothesis 1. Populists are likely to be insensitive to nuclear threats to the political strongholds of their domestic opponents. Meier and Vieluf observe that the credibility of US extended-deterrence promises to America’s allies suffered massively under the Trump administration. That is certainly true, but the question of whether the United States would be willing to trade “Pittsburgh for Paris” (p. 19) has been around for decades. The new problem that populism creates is that even homeland deterrence starts to suffer from the same credibility dilemmas as extended deterrence. In addition to the “Pittsburgh for Paris” question, we now also have to ask whether a populist administration in Washington would be willing to trade Pittsburgh for Portland.', 'In a country where populist leaders revel in dividing society against itself, deterrence theory’s standard assumption that a nuclear threat to any part of the homeland will be treated as a threat to the whole homeland can no longer be taken for granted.20 Whatever the president’s true intentions, foreign powers could potentially calculate that they will not be punished for striking at certain targets within the country’s borders.21 For instance, the longest-range North Korean missile that is currently operational, the Hwasong-14, has enough range for a nuclear attack against Seattle but not Mar-a-Lago. 22 Would the same president who formally designated Seattle as an “anarchist jurisdiction” in an attempt to starve it of federal dollars be greatly concerned by a credible threat of a North Korean strike against it? 23 Probably—but is “probably” a good enough answer for homeland deterrence credibility?', 'Another dimension of this same hypothesis has to do with the precise locations where populists choose to install military installations that are likely to become nuclear targets. During the Nixon administration, the objections of congressional Democrats to the planned construction of Sentinel anti-ballistic-missile facilities near their political strongholds such as Boston and Seattle led Secretary of Defense Melvin Laird to move the projects to less populated areas.24 President Nixon believed that he needed to work constructively with the Democrats on core national security issues. By contrast, a populist president would love to see his political opponents sweating the targets he put on their backs.25 ', 'Populists in power may even be slow to help their political opponents’ regions recover from an actual nuclear attack. There is a lesson for nuclear analysts in the Trump administration’s intentional slow-walking of congressionally mandated emergency aid to the US territory of Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria in 2017, one of the deadliest natural disasters in US history.26 Having long held a low opinion of Puerto Ricans, Trump reportedly told his chief of staff and budget director that he “did not want a single dollar going to Puerto Rico.” 27 Would Trump have been any more helpful if the island had been hit by a man-made bomb instead of a natural one? Maybe if Puerto Rico could do something for him in return, which leads to the second hypothesis:', 'Hypothesis 2. Populists are likely to exploit their control over homeland deterrence to demand political concessions from their domestic political opponents. At the heart of populism is a disrespect for the principle of equal application of the laws. Instead, governance becomes a pure power game, and populist rulers notably exploit crises as opportunities to bring domestic political opponents to their knees. There is every reason to assume that a populist in full command of the nuclear and defense establishment would similarly take advantage of a nuclear crisis to conduct such a shakedown. In other words, populists in power will charge a high price for adequately responding to nuclear threats against their domestic opponents’ political strongholds.', 'Let us continue with the example of the Trump administration. The mass-destructive COVID-19 pandemic offers a highly relevant analogy for thinking about the internal political dynamics of a potential nuclear crisis under populist rule. Public-administration scholars have labeled Trump’s governing approach as “chaotic transactional federalism,” a cynical power system that “removes any vestige of certainty as decisions are shaped based on a desire to reward or punish other political actors, or left to subnational actors entirely. Expertise matters very little in these political, partisan transactions.” 28 In line with this, Trump responded to the COVID-19 crisis by pitting the 50 states against each other in bidding wars for vital medical supplies and for his political favor.29 The president publicly criticized Vice President Mike Pence for reaching out to all the state governors in his role as the coordinator of the national pandemic response, telling the press that he wanted Pence to deal only with those governors who were sufficiently “appreciative.” 30 Trump administration officials were even blunter in private. Trump’s son-in-law and closest adviser Jared Kushner reportedly said that New York Governor Andrew Cuomo “didn’t pound the phones hard enough to get PPE [personal protective equipment] for his state … . His people are going to suffer and that’s their problem.” 31 Trump’s response to the Democratic governors’ pleas for PPE to defend against the virus was essentially the same as his response to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s pleas for weapons to defend against Russia: “I would like you to do us a favor though.” 32', 'The hypothesis that populists will demand concessions from their domestic political opponents in exchange for issuing nuclear-deterrent threats on their behalf may at first glance appear to be only a matter of internal politics, but the distractions caused by internal political wrangling could greatly affect the denouement of a time-sensitive nuclear crisis. Foreign powers could also be tempted to initiate a nuclear crisis precisely in order to intensify their adversary’s domestic divisions. In addition, when facing the double burden of a nuclear threat and simultaneous shakedown by the president, politicians from disfavored regions would likely appeal to friendly elements of the military for assistance. That possibility tees up the third hypothesis: ', 'Hypothesis 3. The establishment’s reaction to populism is likely to increase deterrence instability at least as much as the actions of the populists themselves. Meier and Vieluf’s article implies that the fate of the world hangs on the establishment’s ability to keep populist fingers off the nuclear button. But the establishment’s effort to fend off the populists could itself dramatically increase deterrence instability, for instance by sowing confusion about the chain of command. This hypothesis is not mere speculation. Reacting to widespread fears that Trump might be tempted to launch a nuclear attack against China or another country after his 2020 election loss to Joe Biden, in January 2021, General Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, quietly worked the phone lines to reassure key people at home and abroad that he personally would not allow the president to do anything of the sort. The chairman of the Joint Chiefs is legally outside the chain of command for the execution of the president’s military strategy. Indeed, neither he nor anyone else has the legal authority to prevent a determined president from launching a nuclear strike.33 Yet Milley told Pelosi, “The president alone can order the use of nuclear weapons. But he doesn’t make the decision alone. One person can order it, several people have to launch it.” 34 Essentially, Milley was saying that if push came to shove, the military would mutiny. Meier and Vieluf seem to think that Milley did the right thing (pp. 15–16). Maybe so, but he also set an ominous precedent.', 'As I mentioned at the outset, these comments are simply intended to spark further discussion about the important issues raised by Meier and Vieluf’s stimulating article. I would be relieved to discover that I am being overly pessimistic about humanity’s chances of survival with either the establishments or the populists in charge of nuclear arsenals. But the more I study the issue, the more pessimistic I become.'] | [
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7b34c18be5fccaac5f12c68aa43cadab21aa51b5bf15c7b8c50ed069b29670a8 | 6. CP wrecks trust by misplacing fiduciary obligations. | null | Colleen Honigsberg et al. 22, Colleen Honigsberg is an Associate Professor of Law, Stanford Law School; Edwin Hu is a Research Fellow, New York University School of Law Institute for Corporate Governance and Finance; Robert J. Jackson, Jr., is the Pierrepont Family Professor of Law, New York University School of Law, and Co-director of the New York University School of Law Institute for Corporate Governance and Finance, “Regulatory Arbitrage and the Persistence of Financial Misconduct,” Stanford Law Review, April 2022, 74 Stan. L. Rev. 737 | fragmented regulation contribute to wariness of financial-advice regulatory patchwork contribute to mistrust consumers believe advisors owe them a higher duty than the law in fact requires This leads to conflicts and distrust a consumer who mistakenly believes advisor is a fiduciary may feel cheated | fragmented regulation may contribute to consumers’ wariness of financial-advice The regulatory patchwork may contribute to mistrust Anecdotal evidence indicates that consumers believe that their advisors owe them a higher duty of loyalty than the law in fact requires This leads to conflicts and distrust , as a consumer who mistakenly believes her advisor is a fiduciary may feel cheated upon later learning the advisor did not adhere to a standard | fragmented regulation consumers’ wariness of financial-advice regulatory patchwork contribute to mistrust Anecdotal higher duty of loyalty law in fact requires conflicts distrust mistakenly is a fiduciary cheated later not adhere to a standard | ['This fragmented approach to regulation may contribute to consumers’ wariness of the financial-advice profession. One recent survey concluded that the financial-services sector is the least trusted industry in the national economy;27 another survey asked consumers to rank the relative trustworthiness of various professions and found that consumers viewed Uber drivers as more trustworthy than financial advisors.28 The regulatory patchwork may contribute to this mistrust: Anecdotal evidence indicates that consumers believe that their advisors owe them a higher duty of loyalty than the law in fact requires.29 This leads to potential conflicts and distrust, as a consumer who mistakenly believes her advisor is a fiduciary may feel cheated upon later learning that the advisor did not adhere to a fiduciary standard in their interactions.30'] | [
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9cb41b47c1c73a8385bc878cd7ef467b3473cf6b7e6137dbf0619a27b58052e8 | 7. That’s key. | null | Milo Bianchi & Marie Briere 21, Bianchi is with the Toulouse School of Economics, TSM, and IUF, University of Toulouse Capitole; Briere is with Amundi, Paris Dauphine University, and Universit´e Libre de Bruxelles, “Robo-Advising: Less AI and More XAI?,” 3825110, 04/12/2021, Social Science Research Network, doi:10.2139/ssrn.3825110 | more AI robo-advising would make a black-box key is trust to use the service and follow rec s trustful investors more likely invest a key driver of adoption trust mitigate uncertainty and risk of collaboration fiduciary responsibility is thus key for robo-advisor adoption fourth gen use more automation and sophisticated methods the next would continue the trend trust is key in financial advice | including more AI to robo-advising would make robots a black-box complexity could be problematic In the interaction a key ingredient is trust , determining the individual’s willingness to use the service and follow the rec ommendation s Trust has been key of financial decisions trustful investors are significantly more likely to invest Trust is a key driver of robo-advice adoption What you need to make tech work is to create trust trust exists to mitigate uncertainty and the risk of collaboration by enabling the trustor to anticipate that the trustee will act in the trustor’s best interests Trust in robots has been shown to depend on robot fiduciary responsibility One key feature is thus key for robo-advisor adoption there is a general lack of trust in algorithms Not everyone trusts robo-advisors Trust can have a large impact on investor’s decisions ev idence Bianchi and Bri`ere document a 7% increase in equity exposure after robo-advice adoption this result is likely not to be driven by an increase in the individual’s risk tolerance Rather, it seems to reflect a better alignment of the investment portfolio with the actual risk tolerance of the individual roboadvisor adoption leads to significantly increase attention on savings plans , during months following the adoption. Individuals are in general more attentive to their saving plan when they receive variable remuneration and need to make an investment decision (in their context, saving plans are not automatically rebalanced). robots of third and fourth gen eration, differ from earlier as they use more automation and more sophisticated methods to construct and rebalance portfolios. the next generation of robots would continue the trend of using more data and more complex models trust is key for technology adoption in the domain of financial advice | more AI robo-advising black-box complexity problematic key ingredient trust individual’s willingness to use the service follow the rec ommendation s key financial decisions trustful significantly more likely invest key driver robo-advice adoption need tech work create trust mitigate uncertainty risk of collaboration anticipate trustor’s best interests robots robot fiduciary responsibility One key feature key for robo-advisor adoption lack Not everyone robo-advisors Trust large impact investor’s decisions ev 7% increase in equity exposure robo-advice adoption risk tolerance investment portfolio actual risk tolerance of the individual adoption attention savings plans in general saving plan third and fourth gen differ earlier more automation sophisticated methods next generation continue the trend of using more data and more complex models trust is key for technology adoption in the domain of financial advice | ['A second reason may be that including more AI would violate regulatory constraints. According to the current discipline, as a registered investment advisor, a robo-advisor has a fiduciary duty to its clients. As discussed by Grealish and Kolm (2021), the fiduciary duty in the U.S. builds on the 1940 Advisers Act and it has been adapted by the SEC in 2017 so as to accommodate the specifics of robo-advising. In particular, robo-advisors are required to elicit enough information on the client, use properly tested and controlled algorithms, and fully disclose the algorithms’ possible limitations.', 'Legal scholars debate how much a robo-advisor can and should be subject to fiduciary duty. Fein (2017) argues that robo-advisors cannot be fully considered as fiduciaries since they are programmed to serve a specific goal of the client, as opposed to considering their broader interest. As such, they cannot meet the standard of care of the prudent investor required for human advisers. Similarly, Strzelczyk (2017) stresses that robo-advisors cannot act as a fiduciary since they do not provide individualised portfolio analysis but rather base their recommendations on a partial knowledge of the client. On the other hand, Ji (2017) argues that robo-advisors can be capable of exercising the duty of loyalty to their clients so as to meet the Advisers Act’s standards. In a similar vein, Clarke (2020) argues that the fiduciary duty can be managed by basing recommendations on finance theory and by fully disclosing any possible conflict of interest.', 'A third reason may be that having more AI in robo-advice is simply not desirable. Incorporating AI would at least partly make these robots a black-box and would make it harder to provide investors with clear explanations of why certain recommendations are given. Patel and Lincoln (2019) identify three key sources of risk associated with AI applications: first, opacity and complexity; second, the distancing of humans from decision-making; and third, changing incentive structures (for example in data collection efforts). They consider the implications of these sources of risk in several domains, ranging from damaging trust in financial services, propagating biases, harming certain group of customers possibly in an unfair way. They also consider market level risks ranging from financial stability, cybersecurity and new regulatory challenges.', 'Algorithm complexity could be particularly problematic in bad times. Financial Stability Board (2017) argues that the growing use of AI in financial services can threaten financial stability. One reason is that AI can create new forms of interconnectedness between financial markets and institutions, since various institutions may employ previously unrelated data sources, for example. Moreover, the opacity of AI learning methods could become a source of macro-level risk due to their possibly unintended consequences.', 'Algorithm complexity is also particularly problematic for those with lower financial capabilities. Complex financial products have been shown to be particularly harmful for less sophisticated investors (see e.g. Bianchi and Jehiel (2020) for a theoretical investigation, Ryan, Trumbull and Tufano (2011) and Lerner and Tufano (2011) for historic evidence, and C´el´erier and Vall´ee (2017) for more recent evidence). As for many (financial) innovations, the risk is that they do not reach those who would need it the most, or that they end up being misused.', 'In this way, some key promises of robo-advising, notably on improved financial inclusion and accountability, can be threatened by the widespread use of opaque models.', '4.2 How Far Should We Go Into Personalisation?', 'The potential of robo-advice is to combine financial technology and artificial intelligence and offer to each investor personalised advice based on their objectives and preferences. One important difficulty lies in the precise measurement of investors’ characteristics. A second issue relates to the sensitivity of the optimal asset allocation to these characteristics, which can be subject to a large degree of uncertainty. This can lead the estimated optimal portfolio to be substantially different from the truly optimal one, with dramatic consequences for the investor.', 'Difficulty of measuring an individual’s characteristics', 'Lo (2016) calls for the development of smart indices, that could be tailored to individuals’ circumstances and characteristics. Even if we are not there yet, robo-advisors could make a step in that direction, by helping to precisely define an investor’s financial situation and goals (Gargano and Rossi, 2020). As it has been demonstrated by a large number of academic papers, optimal portfolio choices rely on various individual characteristics such as human capital (Viceira, 2001), housing market exposure (Kraft and Munk, 2011), time preference, risk aversion, ambiguity aversion (Dimmock, Kouwenberg, Mitchell and Peijnenburg, 2016; Bianchi and Tallon, 2019), etc. Individualisation possibilities are much wider than what is currently implemented in robo-advice services.', 'For example, portfolio choice models with labor income risk advise that households account for the covariance between financial and non-financial income in their asset allocation. Labor income is an important source of heterogeneity across individuals. The usual hypothesis that human capital can be proxied by an inflation-linked bond has been challenged (Cocco, Gomes and Maenhout, 2005; Benzoni, Collin-Dufresne and Goldstein, 2007;). In some countries and for some categories of the population (typically, for very low and very high quantiles of the income distribution), income shocks display a positive correlation with equities (Guvenen, Karahan, Ozkan and Song, 2021). There is empirical evidence that households already account for labor income in their self-managed portfolios (Bagliano, Fugazza and Nicodano, 2019). Those whose occupations are more sensitive to the business cycle hold fewer high-beta stocks (Betermier, Calvet and Sodini, 2017). Robo-advisors would be well suited to offer this kind of personalization, but to the best of our knowledge, they currently do not do it.', 'One of the reasons for this lack of personalization of robo-advise services is that some individual characteristics are difficult to measure and subject to a large degree of uncertainty. Risk aversion is one of them. Different methods have been developed by economists and psychologists to measure individuals’ risk aversion. Most of them are experimental measurements based on hypothetical choices. For example, the lotteries of Barsky, Juster, Kimball and Shapiro (1997) offer individuals the choice between employment with a risk-free salary, and a higher but risky salary. Other work (Holt and Laury, 2002; Kapteyn and Teppa, 2011; Weber, Weber and Nosi´c, 2013) measure preferences based on a series of risk/return trade-offs. The choice between a certain gain and a risky lottery is repeated, gradually increasing the prize until the subject picks a risky lottery.', 'One reason why it is difficult to measure risk aversion might be that people interpret outcomes as gains and losses relative to a reference point and are more sensitive to losses than to gains. Kahneman, Knetsch and Thaler (1990) or Barberis, Huang and Santos (2001) report experimental evidence of loss aversion. Loss aversion can also explain why many investors prefer portfolio insurance products offering capital guarantees (Calvet, Celerier, Sodini and Vallee, 2020).', 'In practice, robo-advisors frequently assess a clients’ risk tolerance based on a selfdeclaration. People are asked to rate themselves in their ability to take risks on a scale of 1 to 10 (Dohmen, Falk, Huffman, Sunde, Schupp and Wagner, 2005). These ratings have the disadvantage of not being very comparable across individuals. Scoring techniques are also frequently used by robo-advisors. They ask the individual a large number of questions, covering different aspects of life (consumption, leisure, health, financial lotteries, work, retirement and family). Global scores are obtained by adding the scores across various dimensions, keeping only those questions which prove to be the most relevant ex-post to measure an individual’s risk aversion, a statistical criterion which eliminates the least relevant questions (Arrondel and Masson, 2013).', 'In Europe, the implementation of MiFID regulation led to several academic studies assessing risk profiling questionnaires. European regulation does not impose a standardised solution, each investment company remains free to develop its questionnaire as it wishes, which explains the great heterogeneity of the questionnaires distributed in practice to clients. Marinelli and Mazzoli (2010) sent three different questionnaires used by banks to 100 potential investors to verify the consistency of the clients’ risk profiles. Only 23% of individuals were profiled in a consistent way across the three questionnaires, a likely consequence of the differences in the contents and scoring methods of the questionnaires. Other work carried out in several European countries (De Palma, Picard and Prigent, 2009; Marinelli and Mazzoli, 2010; Linciano and Soccorso, 2012) arrived to the same conclusion.', 'Algorithm sensitivity to parameter uncertainty', 'Optimal allocations are usually very sensitive to parameters (expected returns, covariance of assets’ returns) which are hard to estimate. They also depend crucially on investor’s characteristics (financial wealth, human capital, etc.) often known with poor accuracy. On one hand, there is a cost for suboptimal asset allocation (one size does not fit all) and substantial gains to individualise (see Dahlquist, Setty and Vestman, 2018; Warren, 2019). On the other hand, there is a risk of overreaction to extreme/timevarying individual characteristics, potentially leading to “extreme” asset allocations, as it has been shown by the literature on optimisation with parameter uncertainty (see for example Garlappi, Uppal and Wang, 2007). Blake, Cairns and Dowd (2009) claim that some standardisation is needed, like in the aircraft industry, to guarantee investors’ security. How much customisation is needed depends largely on the trade-off between the gains to bring the portfolio closer to an individual’s needs and the risk of estimating an individual’s characteristics with a large degree of error.', 'How stable an individual characteristics are in practice also remains an open question. Capponi, Olafsson and Zariphopoulou (2019) show that if these risk profiles are changing through time (depending on idiosyncratic characteristics, market returns or economic conditions), the theoretical optimal dynamic portfolio of a robo-advisor should adapt to the client’s dynamic risk profile, by adjusting the corresponding inter-temporal hedging demands.The robo-advisor faces a trade-off between receiving client information in a timely manner and mitigating behavioural biases in the risk profile communicated by the client. They show that with time-varying risk aversion, the optimal portfolio proposed by the robo-advisor should counter the client’s tendency to reduce market exposure during economic contractions.', '4.3 Can Humans Trust Robots?', 'In the interaction between humans and robo-advisors, a key ingredient is trust, determining the individual’s willingness to use the service and to follow the robo recommendations. We review what creates trust in algorithms and discuss the impact of trust on financial decisions.', 'Trust is key for robo-advice adoption', 'Trust has been shown to be a key driver of financial decisions (see Sapienza, ToldraSimats and Zingales (2013) for a review). For example, trustful investors are significantly more likely to invest in the stock market (Thakor and Merton, 2018). Trust is also a potential key driver of robo-advice adoption. As stated by Merton (2017), “What you need to make technology work is to create trust.”', 'Trust has been studied across a variety of disciplines, including sociology, psychology and economics, to understand how humans interact with other humans, or more recently with machines. Trust is a “multidimensional psychological attitude involving beliefs and expectations about the trustee’s trustworthiness, derived from experience and interactions with the trustee in situations involving uncertainty and risk” (Abbass, Scholz and Reid, 2018). One can also see trust as a transaction between two parties: if A believes that B will act in A’s best interest, and accepts vulnerability to B’s actions, then A trusts B (Misztal, 2013). Importantly, trust exists to mitigate uncertainty and the risk of collaboration by enabling the trustor to anticipate that the trustee will act in the trustor’s best interests.', 'While trust has both cognitive and affective features, in the automation literature, cognitive (rather than affective) processes seem to play a dominant role. Trust in robots is multifaceted. It has been shown to depend on robot reliability, robustness, predictability, understandability, transparency, and fiduciary responsibility (Sheridan, 1989; Sheridan, 2019; Muir and Moray, 1996). One key feature of robo-advisors is their reliance on more or less complicated algorithms, in several steps of the advisory process. An algorithm is used to profile the investor, and then to define the optimal asset allocation. A client delegating the decision to the robot bears the risk that a wrong decision by the robot will lead to poor performance of their savings. Trust in these algorithms is thus key for robo-advisor adoption.', 'Algorithm aversion', 'Survey evidence (HSBC, 2019) shows that there is a general lack of trust in algorithms. While most people seem to trust their general environment and technology (68% of the survey respondents said they will trust a person until prove otherwise, 48% believe the majority of people are trustworthy and 76% that they feel comfortable using new technology), artificial intelligence is not yet trusted. Only 8% of respondents would trust a robot programmed by experts to offer mortgage advice, compared to 41% trusting a mortgage broker. As a comparison, 9% would be likely to use a horoscope to guide investment choices! 14% would trust a robot programmed by leading surgeons to conduct open heart surgery on them, while 9% would trust a family member to do an operation supported by a surgeon. Only 19% said they would trust a robo-advisor to help them make investment choices. There are large differences across countries however. The percentage of respondents who trust robo-advisors rises to 44% and 39% in China and India respectively, but it is only 9% and 6% in France and Germany.', 'Some academic studies have shown that decision makers are often averse to using algorithms, most of the time preferring less accurate human judgment. For example, professional forecasters have been shown not to use algorithms or give them insufficient weight (Fildes and Goodwin, 2007). Dietvorst, Simmons and Massey (2015) gave participants the choice of either exclusively using an algorithm’s forecasts or exclusively using their own forecasts during an incentivised forecasting task. They found that most participants chose to use the algorithm exclusively only when they had no information about the algorithm’s performance. However, when the experimenter told them it was imperfect, they were much more likely to choose the human forecast. This effect persisted even when they had explicitly seen the algorithm outperform the human’s forecasts. This tendency to irrationally discount advice that is generated and communicated by computer algorithms has been called “algorithm aversion”. In a later experimental study (Dietvorst, Simmons and Massey, 2018), participants were given the possibility to modify the algorithm. Participants were considerably more likely to choose the imperfect algorithm when they could modify its forecasts, even if they were severely restricted in the modifications they could make. This suggests that algorithm aversion can be reduced by giving people some control over an imperfect algorithm’s forecast.', 'Recent experimental evidence shows less algorithm aversion. Niszczota and Kasz´as (2020) tested if people exhibited algorithm aversion when asked to decide whether they would use human advice or an artificial neural network to predict stock price evolution. Without any prior information on the human versus robot’s performance, they found no general aversion towards algorithms. When it was made explicit that the performances of the human advisor was similar to that of the algorithm, 57% of the participants showed a preference for the human advice. In another experiment, subjects were asked to choose a human or a robo-advisor to exclude stocks that were controversial. Interestingly, people perceived algorithms as being less effective than humans when the tasks required a subjective judgment to be made, such as morality.', 'Germann and Merkle (2019) also found no evidence of algorithm aversion. In a laboratory experiment (mostly based on business or economics’ students), they asked participants to choose between a human fund manager and an investment algorithm. The selection process was repeated ten times, which allowed them to study the reaction to the advisor’s performance. With equal fees for both advisors, 56% of participants decided to follow the algorithm. When fees differed, most participants (80%) chose the advisor with the lower fees. Choices were strongly influenced by the cumulative past performance. But investors did not lose confidence in the algorithm more quickly after seeing forecasting errors. An additional survey provided interesting qualitative explanations to the results. Participants believed in the ability of the algorithm to be better able to learn than humans. They viewed humans as having a comparative advantage in using qualitative data and dealing with outliers. All in all, the algorithms are viewed as a complement rather than a competitor to a human advisor.', 'This reluctance of some clients to use purely automated platforms has to a few cases of hybrid advisors, in which robo-advisors also allow clients to speak with a human advisor. Scalable Capital launched in 2017 over-the-phone and face-to-face consultations for an additional fee charged to clients. Vanguard Personal Advisor Service also stands out as an example of such a hybrid advisor that relies on both automated and non-automated advice.', 'What creates trust in an algorithm?', 'Jacovi, Marasovi´c, Miller and Goldberg (2020) distinguish two sources of trust in algorithm: intrinsic and extrinsic. Intrinsic trust can be gained when the observable decision process of the algorithm matches the user’s priors. Explanations of the decision process behind the algorithm can help create intrinsic trust.10 Additionally, an algorithm can become trustworthy through its actual behaviour: in this case, the source of trust is not the decision process of the model, but the evaluation of its output.', 'The European European Commission (2019) recently listed a number of requirements for trustworthy algorithms. Related to intrinsic trust are the requirements of (1) the user’s agency and human oversight, (2) privacy and data governance, (3) transparency and the ability to explain the algorithm. Extrinsic trust can be increased by (4) the technical robustness and safety of the algorithm, (5) the ability to interpret its output, (6) its accountability and auditability. In addition, ethical and fairness considerations, such as (7) avoiding discrimination, promoting diversity and fairness or (8) encouraging societal and environmental well-being are also considered to be a key component of trust.11', 'Trust in algorithms also crucially depends on the perception of the expertise and reliability of the humans or institutions offering the service (Prahl and Van Swol, 2017). “Technology doesn’t create trust on its own” (Merton, 2017). People trust humans certifying a technology, not necessarily the technology itself. In the specific case of roboadvice, Louren¸co, Dellaert and Donkers (2020) study the decision of consumers to adopt the service and show that this decision is clearly influenced by the for-profit versus notfor-profit orientation of the firm offering the service (for example private insurance and investment management firm versus pension fund or government-sponsored institution). Transparency, explainability and interpretability may not be sufficient by themselves for enhancing decisions and increasing trust. However, informing key hypotheses and potential shortcomings of algorithms when making certain decisions, may be a fundamental dimension to be worked on.', 'Trust in robots and financial decisions', 'Not everyone trusts robo-advisors. In a sample of 34,000 savers in French employee savings’ plans, Bianchi and Bri`ere (2021) document that individuals who are young, male, and more attentive to their saving plans (measured by the time spent on the savings plan website), have a higher probability of adopting a robo-advice service. The probability of taking up the robo-advice option is also negatively related to the size of the investors’ portfolio, which suggests that the robo-advisor is able to reach less wealthy investors,12 a result also confirmed by Brenner and Meyll (2020). Investors with smaller portfolios are also more likely to assign a larger fraction of their assets to the robot.', 'A unique feature of the robo-advice service studied by Bianchi and Bri`ere (2021) allows them to analyse both ”robo-takers” and the “robo-curious,” i.e., individuals who observe the robot’s recommendation without actually subscribing to it. Interestingly, the further away is the robot’s recommendation relative to the current allocation, the larger the probability that the investor will subscribe to the robot. This finding can be contrasted with the observation that human advisors tend to gain trust from their clients by being accommodating with clients (Mullainathan et al., 2012). Moreover, investors who are younger, female, those who have larger risk exposure and lower past returns, as well as less attentive investors are more likely to accept a larger increase in their exposure to risky assets, such as equities. These results confirm the common view that robo advising may develop as a popular investment choice for relatively young households. This may reflect a combination of their lower wealth as well as increased willingness to trust technology.', 'Trust can have a large impact on investor’s decisions. Bianchi and Bri`ere (2021) and Hong et al. (2020) show evidence of increased risk taking, a result consistent with increased trust. For example, Bianchi and Bri`ere (2021) document a 7% increase in equity exposure after robo-advice adoption (relative to an average 16% exposure). Hong et al. (2020) document a 14% increase (relative to an average risky exposure of 37% on their sample of 50,000 Chinese consumer clients of Alibaba). Interestingly, Hong et al. (2020) additionally show that this result is likely not to be driven by an increase in the individual’s risk tolerance driven by robot support. Rather, it seems to reflect a better alignment of the investment portfolio with the actual risk tolerance of the individual. In particular, they show that after robo-advice adoption, exposure to risky assets is more in line with the individual’s risk tolerance estimated from their consumption growth volatility (Merton, 1971), measured from Alibaba’s Taobao online shopping platform. The robo-advisor seems to help individuals to move closer to their optimal alignment of risk-taking and consumption. These results should, however, be used with caution, as both studies concentrate on a relatively short period of investment (absent any serious market crash) and lack a global view on the individuals’ overall portfolios. More work would need to be done to document a long term impact.', '4.4 Do Robots Substitute or Complement Human DecisionMaking?', 'Autonomous systems are being developed across large areas of our everyday life. Understanding how humans will interact with them is a key issue. In particular, should we expect that robots will become substitutes to humans or rather be complementary? In the special case of financial advice, are they likely to replace human advisors?', 'Using a representative sample of US investor, Brenner and Meyll (2020) investigate whether robo-advisors, reduce investors’ demand for human financial advice offered by financial service providers. They document a large substitution effect and show that this effect is driven by investors who fear to be victimised by investment fraud or worry about potential conflicts of interest. In practice however, a number of platforms that were entirely digital decided to reintroduce human advisors. For example, Scalable Capital, the European online robo-advice company backed by BlackRock, or Nutmeg, reintroduced over-the-phone and face-to-face consultations after finding that a number of clients preferred talking to human advisors rather than solely answering online questionnaires.', 'Another related question is how people will interact with robots. Will they delegate the entire decision to the robot or will they keep an eye on it, to monitor the process and intervene if necessary? In certain experiments, users put too much faith in robots. Robinette, Li, Allen, Howard and Wagner (2016) designed an experiment where participants were asked choose to follow, or not to follow, a robot’s instructions in an emergency. All participants followed the robot during the emergency, even though half of the participants observed the same robot perform poorly in a non-emergency navigation guidance task just a few minutes before. Even when the robot pointed to a dark room with no discernible exit the majority of people did not choose to safely exit the way they had entered. Andersen, K¨oslich, Pedersen, Weigelin and Jensen (2017) expand on this work and show that such over-trust can also affect human/robot interactions that are not set in an emergency situation.', 'In the context of financial decisions, Bianchi and Bri`ere (2021) document that roboadvisor adoption leads to significantly increase attention on savings plans, during the months following the adoption. Individuals are in general more attentive to their saving plan, particularly when they receive variable remuneration and need to make an investment decision (in their context, saving plans are not automatically rebalanced). This seems to indicate that people do not use the robot as a substitute for their own attention.', '5 The Next Generation of Robo-Advisors', 'It is not clear which generation of robo-advisors we are currently facing. Beketov et al. (2018) focus on robots of third and fourth generation, which differ from earlier generations as they use more automation and more sophisticated methods to construct and rebalance portfolios. One possibility is that the next generation of robots would continue the trend of using more data and more complex models. One may, however, imagine an alternative path. As discussed previously, incorporating more complex AI into roboadvice (and more generally into financial services) faces three key challenges. Firstly, while highly personalised asset allocations have the great potential of accommodating an individual’s needs, they are also more exposed to measurement errors of relevant individual characteristics and to parameter uncertainty. Secondly, to the extent that increased AI is associated with increased opacity, the risk is to miss some key promises of increased accountability and financial inclusion. Third, trust is key for technology adoption, even more so in the domain of financial advice. These challenges, in our view, call for algorithms that can be easily interpreted and evaluated. Toreini, Aitken, Coopamootoo, Elliott, Zelaya and van Moorsel (2020) discuss how developing trust in (machine learning) technologies requires them to be fair, explainable, accountable, and safe (FEAS).'] | [
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e1d69563ff36d0d536c3af1fc260c5dc93b0045b5ac768f82b084dae0d2f4d68 | Counterplan’s litigation is costly and uncertain. | null | Mihailis E. Diamantis 21. Associate Professor, The University of Iowa College of Law. “Algorithms Acting Badly: A Solution from Corporate Law.” 89 Geo. Wash. L. Rev. 801. Jul 2021. Lexis. | The account faces challenges inquiry into beneficial control is fact intensive Uncovering and introducing evidence will require significant resources from courts multiple corporations control the same algorithm applying the tests requires drawing lines in grey areas This injects unpredictability that brings costs Any attempt to trivialize litigation and uncertainty would be disingenuous | The beneficial-control account faces challenges The first regards implementation the inquiry into whether a corporation exercised beneficial control is fact intensive Uncovering and introducing evidence that pertains to indicia of control over and monetization of an algorithm will require a significant commitment of resources from litigants and courts . multiple corporations may exercise control over the same algorithm applying the tests requires drawing lines in grey areas to determine when control and benefits are "substantial" enough for liability This vagueness injects unpredictability into the process that brings costs to litigants Any attempt to trivialize litigation and uncertainty would be disingenuous ; Standards are less predictable but more flexible | challenges implementation fact intensive Uncovering introducing significant commitment of resources from litigants multiple corporations same algorithm drawing lines in grey areas vagueness unpredictability costs trivialize disingenuous less predictable | ['B. Challenges', 'The beneficial-control account faces two main challenges. The first regards implementation. As discussed above, 303 the inquiry into whether a corporation exercised beneficial control over an algorithm is fact intensive. Uncovering and introducing evidence that pertains to the various indicia of control over and monetization of an algorithm will require a significant commitment of resources from litigants and courts. 304This is complicated by the fact that multiple corporations may exercise different types of control over or claim different benefits from the same algorithm. 305Furthermore, applying the control and benefit tests requires drawing lines in grey areas to determine when the control exercised and the benefits claimed are "substantial" enough for liability. This sort of vagueness injects a fair measure of unpredictability into the process that brings its own costs to litigants, both present and prospective. 306', 'Any attempt to trivialize these litigation and uncertainty costs would be disingenuous; however, they must be juxtaposed with the costs of alternatives. The challenge is to navigate the perennial tension between easier to implement, bright-line rules and harder to implement, vague standards. 307Rules are predictable but inflexible. 308They can, at best, only roughly correlate to more complex underlying economic or justice values that the law seeks to promote. 309This means that rules will inevitably dictate counterproductive results where they fail to track the subtler contours of value. Standards, by contrast, are less predictable but more flexible, which allows the law to hew more closely to its goals. 310 The decision between applying a rule or a standard turns on how the rule\'s costs of error compare to the standard\'s uncertainty and administrative costs. 311Sometimes, as in strict products liability, rules are preferable for weighing corporate liability. 312In other cases, lawmakers have decided that standards make more sense, e.g., by requiring "proximate causation" for tort claims against corporations, 313by requiring "reckless disregard" in workplace safety suits, 314and by evaluating corporate books\' for "reasonable assurances" against foreign bribery. 315'] | [
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fb47e5171859d99e91bc2b11ea2ff151c3825655fabe129dba101a52615d9743 | AI requires complexity and autonomy beyond mere rule following | null | AiDA 20, Artificial Intelligence Driven Analytics, “Why robotic process automation is not artificial intelligence,” AiDA, 2/4/20, https://www.aidatech.io/2020/02/why-robotic-process-automation-is-not-artificial-intelligence/ | RPA needs strict rules in the form of “If-Then” statements no different from Excel AI is not limited by rules and is making judgments based on analysis and extrapolation performs the function of decision-maker, as opposed to rule follower | a i has become an overused buzzword . As more and more companies overhaul their intelligence tools and embrace predictive analytics, the term AI has been thrown around so haphazardly that some confuse it with Process Automation The reality is that these two tools are lightyears apart in terms of capabilities RPA is using a robot (usually software) to automate repetitive tasks based on strict rules. The key in this definition are ‘a strict set of rules’. Therein lies the key difference . For RPA to be effective it needs strict rules typically in the form of “If-Then” statements . It’s no different from the IF function on Excel which returns one value for TRUE and another for FALSE while offering some advantages, RPA solutions are essentially ‘mindless’ capable only of routine, low-level tasks AI is not limited by rules and is capable of making judgments based on analysis and extrapolation of past data. It is designed to augment and replicate intuitive decision making RPA can save clerical work. As there is a clear ruleset , it could route the claim to a specific department , or flag a certain amount , or sort claims by predefined criteria A i on the other hand, would analyse the entire claim and then assess whether it should be approved Even after initial assessment, AI is capable of detecting subsequent claims down the line – giving it the ability to conduct full end-to-end risk management The crucial difference is that initial assessment and end-to-end risk management performed here is not based on any predetermined criteria . Instead, by feeding the machine past claims data , it can learn from thousands of different data points , make sense of patterns that emerge, and thus separate legitimate claims from unqualified and fraudulent claims AI performs the function of a decision-maker, as opposed to a rule follower | a i overused buzzword AI thrown around so haphazardly confuse it Process Automation reality lightyears apart capabilities key ‘a strict set of rules’. key difference effective needs strict rules “If-Then” statements no different IF function on Excel some essentially ‘mindless’ routine, low-level tasks not limited rules judgments analysis extrapolation augment replicate intuitive RPA clerical ruleset department flag amount sort predefined criteria A i entire initial subsequent full end-to-end risk management crucial difference not any predetermined criteria past claims data thousands of different data points patterns separate legitimate claims from unqualified fraudulent AI decision-maker, as opposed to a rule follower | ['The inconvenient truth is, artificial intelligence has become an overused buzzword. As more and more financial companies overhaul their business intelligence tools and embrace predictive analytics, the term AI has been thrown around so haphazardly that some confuse it with Robotic Process Automation (RPA). The reality, however, is that these two tools are lightyears apart in terms of capabilities and applications.', 'Robotic process automation – What it can do (and what it can’t)', 'RPA is defined as the process of using a robot (usually software) to automate repetitive tasks based on a strict set of rules. The keywords in this definition are ‘a strict set of rules’. As CIO Magazine aptly puts it, “With RPA, businesses can automate mundane rules-based business processes”. According to Ernst and Young, examples in the financial services industry include:', 'Updating details of new customers', 'Financial ratio analysis ', 'Calculating exchange gains or losses in financial statements', 'Generating reports in multiple formats', 'Preparing reconciliation statements', 'Therein lies the key difference. For RPA to be effective it needs a strict set of rules to operate, typically in the form of “If-Then” statements. It’s really no different from the IF function on Microsoft Excel which returns one value for a TRUE result, and another for a FALSE result. So, while offering some advantages, RPA solutions are essentially ‘mindless’ robots capable only of routine, low-level tasks. In contrast, AI is not limited by rules and is capable of making judgments based on analysis and extrapolation of past data. It is designed to augment and replicate intuitive human decision making – this is the AI advantage. ', 'Robotic process automation vs. artificial intelligence example case: Medical claims', 'When an insurance company processes medical claims, RPA initiatives can indeed save time on clerical work. As there is a clear predefined ruleset, it could route the claim to a specific department, or flag if the medical claims exceed a certain amount, or sort claims by other predefined criteria e.g. type of injury or illness. ', 'Artificial intelligence on the other hand, would be able to analyse the entire claim and then assess whether it should be approved. But its capabilities don’t stop at the beginning of the claims process. Even after the initial claims assessment, AI is capable of detecting subsequent fraudulent claims down the line – giving it the ability to conduct full end-to-end risk management.', 'The crucial difference here is that this initial assessment and end-to-end risk management performed here is not based on any predetermined criteria. Instead, by feeding the machine past claims data, it can learn from thousands of different data points, make sense of anomalous patterns that emerge, and thus separate legitimate claims from unqualified and potentially fraudulent claims. ', 'AI technology therefore performs the function of a decision-maker, as opposed to a blind rule follower.'] | [
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6fa651e8f3539b23950189285210143f9ef7779cd95529aac7e91f34cafc17ab | The only way to influence on-chain behavior is to leverage natural and legal persons that can be reached by the state. | null | Florence Guillaume & Sven Riva 22, Guillaume is a Professor of Private International Law at the University of Neuchâtel and the Founder of the LexTech Institute; Riva is a PhD student and research assistant at the University of Neuchâtel, “Blockchain Dispute Resolution for Decentralized Autonomous Organizations: The Rise of Decentralized Autonomous Justice,” 4042704, 02/01/2022, Social Science Research Network, doi:10.2139/ssrn.4042704 | Traditional enforcement has been coercive force by states on the blockchain not law , but tech prevents states power immutability does not allow any authority to modify content crypto is tamper-proof a DAO is inscribed on immutable smart contracts censorship resistant autonomously from any authority . Only the members can trigger an action No enforcement authority can force action upon the DAO assets cannot be frozen, seized, or confiscated no coercive measure can be enforced “[c]ourts cannot require retroactive change that is computationally impossible states could pressure intermediaries in charge of developing, deploying, or maintaining and demand that miners censor transactions or even revert If a state cannot directly enforce decisions on a blockchain, it can enforce indirectly through individuals or companies that influence its operation the community can change the ledger even if a link does exist courts may not administer justice actors of the blockchain have crypto DAO governance tokens and dispute resolution could take advantage of this by enforcing on those assets | Challenges to seeking justice in a dispute involving DAOs do not end with jurisdiction Even if a court has jurisdiction and issues a decision , the aggrieved party may find it impossible to seek enforcement on the blockchain when the losing party does not spontaneously comply Traditional ly enforcement has been established by coercive force exerted by states which maintain a monopoly over use of force However When executing a decision on the blockchain , it is not law , but tech nology that prevents states from exercising their power The immutability that characterises blockchain does not allow any authority to modify the content of the blockchain authorities have no enforcement power over assets in the crypto space as blockchain technology is tamper-proof enforcement of court decisions related to governance of a DAO is problematic . The rules dictating the governance of a DAO are inscribed on immutable smart contracts spread on a global network of computers . This results in censorship resistant entities that are created and exist autonomously from any central authority . Only the community of members acting within parameters of code can trigger an action from the entity. Crypto assets share the same immutable characteristics . One member does not have the power to dispose of the DAO’s crypto assets if the code does not allow it No enforcement authority can force an action upon the DAO the crypto assets cannot be frozen, seized, or confiscated . Therefore, no coercive measure can be enforced on a DAO by relying on a peer-to-peer decentralised infrastructure DAOs fall outside the reach of state jurisdictions with pseudonymity enforcement authorities cannot force them to execute an action, on blockchain or outside State authorities are left with no enforcement power for maverick DAOs The problem of enforcement of court decisions is similar in the case of a decision concerning a contractual relationship between a DAO and a third party formalised by smart contract . Since smart contracts are immutable state authorities cannot exercise enforcement power to adapt the execution of smart contracts stop them from executing or to restore the initial situation if a state court orders the creation of a new smart contract to cancel the effects of the one improperly executed such a decision cannot be enforced by force “[c]ourts cannot require a retroactive change in the blockchain because that is computationally impossible This would go against the immutability of the blockchain states could “exert pressure on intermediaries in charge of developing, deploying, or maintaining the tech and “[i]n the case of harm could demand that miners censor certain transactions or even revert the blockchain to its previous state If a state cannot directly enforce its decisions on a blockchain, it can indeed enforce them indirectly through individuals or companies that have influence over its operation and are in its territory that the execution of smart contracts cannot be stopped or modified poses legal issues state enforcement authorities have no means to stop or freeze crypto assets Such power could only belong to the community in extreme situations the community can make the decision to change the status of the ledger it is highly unlikely that such a decision would be made to enforce a court decision on a mere contractual relationship The inability of states to exercise their enforcement power on the blockchain means that the enforcement of court decisions on the blockchain relies exclusively on the willingness of the parties This leads to significant risk of non-compliance Since states have no power to enforce court decisions on the blockchain justice cannot be guaranteed The discussion above has shown that it is a challenge to offer the protection of courts in a reliable way when the legal situation involves blockchain The uncertainties around jurisdiction are not desirable It is of course possible to remedy this legal uncertainty by making a choice But this is purely theoretical as no state recognises the legal scope of maverick DAOs and on-chain actors are pseudonymous As a result, even if a link does exist courts may not be able to administer justice This may hinder the aggrieved party from seeking compensation This unsatisfactory situation calls for the search for alternatives to state justice for disputes involving DAOs . This leads us not to ask where to take legal action , but what is the most appropriate dispute resolution mechanism to settle this dispute that takes advantage of blockchain and smart contracts actors of the blockchain environment have crypto assets in their wallets DAO governance tokens and new dispute resolution could be developed to take advantage of this by enforcing their decisions on those crypto assets | seeking justice DAOs not end jurisdiction has issues a decision impossible to seek enforcement blockchain not spontaneously comply Traditional coercive force states monopoly over use of force blockchain not law tech nology states power immutability not allow any authority to modify the content of the blockchain crypto tamper-proof governance DAO problematic dictating inscribed immutable smart contracts global network of computers censorship resistant entities created exist autonomously from any central authority members within parameters of code immutable characteristics One member not have the power to dispose of the DAO’s crypto assets code does not allow it No enforcement authority force an action upon the DAO cannot be frozen, seized, or confiscated no coercive measure can be enforced on a DAO outside the reach of state jurisdictions pseudonymity cannot force them on or outside no enforcement power maverick DAOs similar between a DAO and a third party smart contract immutable cannot exercise enforcement power adapt the execution of smart contracts stop them restore the initial situation cannot be enforced by force cannot require a retroactive change computationally impossible against the immutability of the blockchain could pressure on intermediaries charge developing, deploying, or maintaining the tech miners censor revert previous state cannot directly can indeed indirectly individuals or companies have influence over its operation in its territory cannot be stopped or modified legal issues no means stop freeze crypto assets only community extreme situations can decision unlikely court decision mere contractual relationship exclusively willingness of the parties non-compliance cannot be guaranteed challenge to offer the protection of courts reliable way legal situation involves blockchain uncertainties around jurisdiction not desirable making a choice purely theoretical no state legal scope maverick DAOs on-chain actors pseudonymous does exist not be able to administer justice hinder the aggrieved party seeking compensation alternatives to state justice for disputes involving DAOs not where to take legal action most appropriate dispute resolution mechanism settle this dispute takes advantage blockchain smart contracts crypto in their wallets DAO governance tokens dispute resolution take advantage enforcing their decisions on those crypto assets | ['3.5 Enforcement of a Court Decision on the Blockchain', 'Challenges to seeking justice in case of a dispute involving DAOs do not end with finding a court with jurisdiction over the dispute. Even if a state court has jurisdiction and issues a decision, the aggrieved party may find it impossible to seek the enforcement of the decision on the blockchain when the losing party does not spontaneously comply.', 'Traditionally, the guarantee of enforcement of a court decision has been established by coercive force exerted by the states which maintain a monopoly over the use of force on their territory. 129 However, states have limited enforcement power: they have no right to enforce the decisions rendered by their courts abroad. When it comes to executing a decision on the blockchain, it is not the law, but the technology that prevents states from exercising their power of enforcement. The immutability that characterises blockchain technology does not allow any authority to modify the content of the blockchain. Hence, state authorities have no enforcement power over assets in the crypto space as blockchain technology is tamper-proof.', 'For instance, enforcement of court decisions related to the governance of a DAO is problematic. The rules dictating the governance of a DAO are inscribed on immutable smart contracts spread on a global network of computers. This results in censorship resistant entities that are created and exist autonomously from any central authority. Only the community of members acting within the parameters of the code can trigger an action from the entity. Crypto assets share the same immutable characteristics. One member does not have the power to dispose of the DAO’s crypto assets if the code does not allow for it. No enforcement authority can force an action upon the DAO and the DAO’s crypto assets cannot be frozen, seized, or confiscated. Therefore, no coercive measure can be enforced on a DAO. The DAO project outlined the risks of using DAOs and showed that by relying on a peer-to-peer decentralised infrastructure, DAOs fall outside the reach of state jurisdictions.130 And with the pseudonymity that DAO members enjoy on the blockchain, enforcement authorities cannot force them to execute an action, on the blockchain or outside the blockchain. State authorities are left with no enforcement power, either on the organisation, its assets, or its members, at least for maverick DAOs.', 'The problem of enforcement of state court decisions is similar in the case of a decision concerning a contractual relationship between a DAO and a third party formalised by means of a smart contract. Since smart contracts are immutable,131 state authorities cannot exercise their enforcement power to adapt the execution of smart contracts, to stop them from executing all together, or to restore the initial situation if smart contracts have been improperly executed. For instance, if a state court orders the creation of a new smart contract to cancel the effects of the one that has been improperly executed, which is referred to as a “reverse transaction”, such a decision cannot be enforced by force using state enforcement authorities. According to some authors, “[c]ourts cannot require a retroactive change in the blockchain because that is computationally near impossible.”132 This would go against the immutability of the blockchain.133 [FOOTNOTE 133 BEGINS] 133 However, De Filippi and Wright (n 13), 208, noted that states could “exert pressure on the intermediaries in charge of developing, deploying, or maintaining the technology” and “[i]n the case of harm, they could demand that miners censor certain transactions or even revert the blockchain back to its previous state to recover damages or remedy harm.” If a state cannot directly enforce its decisions on a blockchain, it can indeed enforce them indirectly through individuals or companies that have influence over its operation and are located in its territory [FOOTNOTE 133 ENDS] As no one has the power to update the code of smart contracts once they are launched on the blockchain,134 [FOOTNOTE 134 BEGINS] 134 According to Christoph Müller, “Les ‘smart contracts’ en droit des obligations suisse” in Blaise Carron and Christoph Müller (eds), 3e Journée des droits de la consommation et de la distribution, Blockchain et Smart Contracts – Défis juridiques (Helbing Lichtenhahn 2018), para. 93, the fact that the execution of smart contracts cannot be stopped or modified poses a number of legal issues. See also Sarah Templin, “Blocked-Chain: The Application of the Unauthorized Practice of Law to Smart Contracts” (2019) 32 The Georgetown Journal of Legal Ethics 957, 961. [FOOTNOTE 134 ENDS] state enforcement authorities have no means to stop the execution or to freeze the crypto assets held by a particular smart contract, even if that smart contract falls within their jurisdiction. Such power could only belong to the community of a blockchain. The DAO case showed that in extreme situations the community can make the decision to change the status of the ledger.135 However, it is highly unlikely that such a decision would be made to enforce a court decision on a mere contractual relationship involving a DAO.', 'The inability of states to exercise their enforcement power on the blockchain means that the enforcement of court decisions on the blockchain relies exclusively on the willingness of the parties. This leads to a significant risk of non-compliance with the decision of a state court because people know that coercive enforcement is not a realistic possibility.136 Since states have no power to enforce court decisions on the blockchain, the efficiency of justice cannot be guaranteed. This observation has led some authors to say that “enforcement [on the blockchain] could be a lost cause”.137', '3.6 Need for an Alternative to State courts for Disputes Involving DAOs', 'The discussion above has shown that it is a challenge to offer the protection of state courts in a reliable way when the legal situation involves the use of blockchain technology. The uncertainties around the jurisdiction of state courts for disputes involving DAOs are not desirable. We have seen that most of the times state courts do not have jurisdiction over disputes involving DAOs as it is not possible to establish sufficient connections outside of the blockchain environment. It is of course possible to remedy this legal uncertainty by making a choice of court. For example, the parties to a smart contract could insert a choice of court clause in the code of the smart contract and thus agree to submit a possible dispute to the courts of a specific state. A choice of court agreement would mainly serve at providing a forum for disputes involving a maverick DAO or an on-chain actor as they cannot be linked to a state jurisdiction with objective connecting criteria and no court has personal jurisdiction over them. But this option is purely theoretical as no state recognises the legal scope of maverick DAOs, 138 and on-chain actors are pseudonymous. 139 As a result, even if a link with a state does exist, the courts that have jurisdiction may not be able to effectively administer justice. This may hinder the aggrieved party from seeking compensation for the damage. As a result, on top of an important legal uncertainty, there is a great risk of denial of justice in disputes involving DAOs.', 'This unsatisfactory situation calls for the search for alternatives to state justice for disputes involving DAOs. This leads us not to ask where to take legal action, but what is the most appropriate dispute resolution mechanism to settle this kind of disputes: one that takes advantage of blockchain technology and smart contracts. Indeed, actors of the blockchain environment have crypto assets stored in their wallets, such as cryptocurrencies, DAO governance tokens, or NFTs, and new dispute resolution mechanisms could be developed to take advantage of this situation by enforcing their decisions on those crypto assets.'] | [
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0cac93bac7862e6bf20f1cc85ab7c185db72e6fcab87f3ca9a93513b49ec273a | Even if the CP leaves DAOs legally out of reach, clarifying the standards for when individual conduct can be reached creates market pressure for DAOs to comply with the law. | null | Florence Guillaume & Sven Riva 22, Guillaume is a Professor of Private International Law at the University of Neuchâtel and the Founder of the LexTech Institute; Riva is a PhD student and research assistant at the University of Neuchâtel, “Blockchain Dispute Resolution for Decentralized Autonomous Organizations: The Rise of Decentralized Autonomous Justice,” 4042704, 02/01/2022, Social Science Research Network, doi:10.2139/ssrn.4042704 | damage to reputation may be decisive even in absence of enforceability market forces or moral beliefs may by themselves or in combination compel compliance DAOs want lasting activity must maintain reputation key to attracting investments and expanding activities therefore have important incentive to spontaneously enforce on a dispute involving them even in the absence of a court | alternatives to state justice could take into ac count the immutability of the blockchain to set up means to have decisions enforced that do not require coercive power . For example, damage to reputation may be decisive for voluntarily compliance “ even in the absence of enforceability , factors such as market forces or moral beliefs , or a combination may by themselves or in combination with legal measures compel legal compliance DAOs that want to have lasting activity must maintain a reputation . This is key to attracting investments and expanding activities therefore DAOs have an important incentive to spontaneously enforce a decision on a dispute involving them to preserve their reputation the risk of damage to the reputation of the blockchain Ethereum proved to be a sufficient incentive to restore justice even in the absence of a formal court decision | alternatives count immutability of the blockchain enforced do not require coercive power reputation decisive voluntarily compliance absence of enforceability market forces moral beliefs combination by themselves in combination legal measures compliance lasting activity reputation key investments expanding activities important incentive spontaneously enforce a decision involving them preserve their reputation blockchain Ethereum sufficient incentive restore justice even absence of a formal court decision | ['These alternatives to state justice could take into account the immutability of the blockchain to set up means to have decisions enforced that do not require the exercise of coercive power. For example, damage to reputation may be decisive for voluntarily compliance with a decision. In relation to the famous Yahoo! case, 140 it was noted that “even in the absence of enforceability, factors such as market forces or moral beliefs, or a combination of them, may by themselves or in combination with legal measures compel legal compliance.”141 DAOs that want to have a lasting activity in the crypto environment must maintain a certain reputation. This is key to attracting investments and expanding activities. It can therefore be assumed that DAOs have an important incentive to spontaneously enforce a decision on a dispute involving them in order to preserve their reputation. One notorious example is The DAO case: the risk of damage to the reputation of the blockchain Ethereum proved to be a sufficient incentive to restore a state of justice even in the absence of a formal court decision.142 But the threat of damage to the reputation could only work against entities that need to maintain a good reputation. For a DAO with no reputation and whose members are hidden behind their pseudonymity, voluntary enforcement might be unattainable.'] | [
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7fd6eb13f79ba81f340baec93799e4f386165a5dba7dfc862b8e21fd61eaa4a3 | DAOs that fail to do this will fold, which naturally cleans the industry. | null | Marcello Mari 21, CEO of SingularityDAO, “Meet the DAO chief who wants artificial intelligence to take his job,” Forkast, 12/10/21, https://forkast.news/video-audio/dao-chief-wants-ai-take-his-ceo-job/ | we are going to eliminate bad actors the system will clean itself projects will disappear . We’ll have more reputable leaders people can trust similar to traditional players are consolidating and malicious ones are disappearing | they’re taking a look at DeFi And one of the huge obstacles currently in DeFi , from a regulator’s point of view, is that there’s nobody to speak to , in a central role , if something goes wrong . And things have gone wrong this market will become more stable and more participated in we are going to eliminate the layer of bad actors that we’ve seen It’s undeniable that we’ve seen everything happen from hacks to rug-pulls, which is basically when people run away with the money the system will clean itself these projects will disappear . We’ll have more reputable leaders in DeFi that people can trust — very similar to the traditional economy, where you have banks that you trust more and banks that are less trustworthy, the same would happen in DeFi these players are consolidating and malicious ones are disappearing | DeFi currently in DeFi nobody to speak to central role goes wrong have gone wrong eliminate the layer of bad actors run away with the money clean itself disappear more reputable leaders DeFi people can trust traditional banks more less same would happen in DeFi consolidating malicious disappearing | ['Lau: We recently spoke to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, and they’re taking a look at the DeFi space. And one of the huge obstacles currently in DeFi, from a regulator’s point of view, is that there’s nobody to speak to, in a central role, if something goes wrong. And things have gone wrong. Things have gone very wrong in the DeFi world, from pump-and-dumps to hacks, etc, etc, etc. We’ve also seen, as DAOs have evolved, things happen that have not been ideal and not worked based on the principles that it originally centered around. So where do you think this is going to go? If people can’t trust that they’re going to get the best outcome from this structure, do you think that people are going to want to participate in a DAO?', 'Mari: Yeah, that’s a good point. I think eventually, when this market will become more stable and more participated in, then we are going to eliminate the layer of bad actors that we’ve seen in recent years. It’s undeniable that, as you said, we’ve seen everything happen from hacks to rug-pulls, which is basically when people run away with the money. ', 'So, of course, regulation will help get more clarity. Of course, generalized know-your-customer will also help. However, I think the system will clean itself. Most of these projects will disappear. We’ll have more reputable leaders in the DeFi ecosystem that people can trust — very similar to the traditional economy, where you have banks that you trust more and banks that are less trustworthy, the same would happen in DeFi. Some of these players are consolidating and the malicious ones are slowly disappearing.'] | [
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5b4d14c6467ee66f0bba566b48815aebc355477fadd0f63db7d70cf7dca345d4 | 1. JURISDICTION. Purely on-chain DAOs cannot be geolocated. | null | Florence Guillaume & Sven Riva 22, Guillaume is a Professor of Private International Law at the University of Neuchâtel and the Founder of the LexTech Institute; Riva is a PhD student and research assistant at the University of Neuchâtel, “How To Resolve A Dispute Involving A DAO,” The FinReg Blog, 7/21/22, https://sites.duke.edu/thefinregblog/2022/07/21/how-to-resolve-a-dispute-involving-a-dao/ | How Can A DAO Be Brought Before Court? jurisdiction must determined the US approach of minimum contacts raises difficulties where is its seat? they have neither a place of incorporation nor administration are launched on chain where is the place of performance of a smart contract? the place of occurrence of a hack? | How Can A DAO Be Brought Before A Court? DAOs are new legal vehicles While this offers new opportunities , it is important to understand and manage the risks involved especially considering legal uncertainties . Regulated DAOs offer their members and contracting parties a good level of certainty as they are identifiable entities that can be brought before courts in case of a dispute . But as regard maverick DAOs their legal qualification is uncertain . When contracting with this type of DAO, it can be difficult to determine who is liable when things go wrong and whether the entity can even be a party to the proceedings In order to sue a DAO the jurisdiction to hear the case must first be determined the US approach of assessing the existence of minimum contacts with the forum raises difficulties establishing the link between a DAO and a state or country for the purpose of admitting jurisdiction Assuming that a DAO can be sued where is its seat? Maverick DAOs do not have a seat: they have neither a place of incorporation nor any place of administration that could point to the territory of a specific state or country. Maverick DAOs cannot be linked to a jurisdiction because they are not constituted or organized under law . Those DAOs are simply launched on a block chain and profit from the blockchain’s infrastructure to register their “bylaws” It is very unlikely that a maverick DAO would designate a seat in its code . Thus, the criterion of the statutory seat or registered office fails Likewise, maverick DAOs do not have a physical place of administration This criterion can only point to the Internet or the blockchain itself where is the place of performance of a smart contract? or the place of occurrence of a hack? | How Can A DAO Be Brought Before A Court? new legal vehicles opportunities risks involved legal uncertainties Regulated good level of certainty identifiable entities brought before courts maverick uncertain contracting difficult to determine who is liable go wrong can even be a party to the proceedings sue a DAO jurisdiction hear the case minimum contacts forum difficulties link DAO state or country can where is its seat? Maverick do not neither a place of incorporation any place of administration cannot be linked to a jurisdiction not constituted or organized law launched on a block chain blockchain’s infrastructure register their “bylaws” very unlikely that a maverick DAO would designate a seat in its code statutory seat registered office fails physical place of administration only Internet blockchain itself place of performance of a smart contract? place of occurrence hack? | ['How Can A DAO Be Brought Before A Court? ', 'DAOs are exciting new types of legal vehicles that are especially suited for conducting business in the crypto ecosystem. While this industry offers new economic opportunities, it is very important for entrepreneurs and investors to understand and manage the risks involved with crypto assets and DAOs, especially considering the many legal uncertainties. Regulated DAOs offer their members and contracting parties a good level of certainty as they are regulated by law, and they are clearly identifiable entities that can be brought before courts in case of a dispute. But as regard maverick DAOs, the bZx DAO lawsuit showcased that their legal qualification is uncertain. When contracting with this type of DAO, it can be difficult to determine who is liable when things go wrong and whether the entity can even be a party to the proceedings. ', 'In order to sue a DAO before Swiss courts, the jurisdiction to hear the case must first be determined by PIL rules since a DAO is necessarily a foreign entity. Connecting factors used by Swiss PIL rules as grounds of jurisdiction for Swiss courts refer to the location of the parties (e.g., the domicile, residence, or seat of the defendant) or to the location of the legal relationship itself (e.g., the place of performance of a contract, the place of occurrence of a tort, the place of business operations). ', 'Although Swiss law sets out its own rules for determining when the subject of the dispute or the parties have sufficiently close connections with Switzerland for Swiss courts to have jurisdiction, the approach is very similar to that followed in other countries. For example, the connecting factors set out in the Swiss PILA bring similar results to the US approach of assessing the existence of minimum contacts with the forum. All legal systems use similar connecting criteria to localize the subject of the dispute and the parties themselves. A state or country will agree to provide the protection of its courts when the subject of the dispute or one of the parties has sufficient connections with its territory. ', 'Determining jurisdiction for disputes involving a DAO raises difficulties with regard to the use of connecting factors. One example will suffice to show the difficulty of establishing the link between a DAO and a state or country for the purpose of admitting the jurisdiction of its courts. The rule of jurisdiction which is most frequently applied is the forum of the domicile of the defendant. For a company, the seat is deemed to be its domicile under Swiss law. The seat of a company is deemed to be located at the place designated in the bylaws or articles of incorporation (statutory seat, registered office), or at the place where the company is administered in fact (administrative seat). Assuming that a DAO can be sued in the same way as a company, where is its seat? ', 'Maverick DAOs do not have a seat: they have neither a place of incorporation nor any place of administration that could point to the territory of a specific state or country. Maverick DAOs cannot be linked to a jurisdiction because they are not constituted or organized under a law. Those DAOs are simply launched on a blockchain and profit from the blockchain’s infrastructure to register their “bylaws” (i.e., their code) and to become a publicly visible entity. It is very unlikely that a maverick DAO would designate a seat in its code. Thus, the criterion of the statutory seat or registered office fails to link maverick DAOs to a state or country. Likewise, maverick DAOs do not have a physical place of administration, and the criterion of the administrative seat fails to create any link with a state or country. This criterion can only point to the Internet or the blockchain itself. The other rules establishing the jurisdiction of Swiss courts will also be difficult to apply. For example, where is the place of performance of a smart contract? or the place of occurrence of a hack? '] | [
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790ef8e22ed64c8102df8d1ef5093d2d38d7b060703412ec323e88239814611f | 2. JUDGEMENT-PROOF---laws cannot compel changes to the blockchain because code is decentralized and a purely on-chain entity has no legal analogue to compel or sanction for noncompliance. | null | Florence Guillaume & Sven Riva 22, Guillaume is a Professor of Private International Law at the University of Neuchâtel and the Founder of the LexTech Institute; Riva is a PhD student and research assistant at the University of Neuchâtel, “How To Resolve A Dispute Involving A DAO,” The FinReg Blog, 7/21/22, https://sites.duke.edu/thefinregblog/2022/07/21/how-to-resolve-a-dispute-involving-a-dao/ | Is It Enough To Have Jurisdiction Over A DAO? When enforcing the tech prevents exercising enforcement immutability does not allow any authority to modify the ledger Authorities cannot force action This risk non-compliance because people know enforcement is not realistic | Is It Enough To Have Jurisdiction Over A Dispute Involving A DAO? Challenges to seeking justice in case of a dispute involving a DAO do not end with finding a court having jurisdiction Even if a court has jurisdiction the aggrieved party may find it impossible to seek the enforcement of the judgment when the DAO does not comply When it comes to enforcing a judgment on the blockchain, the tech nology prevents authorities from exercising enforcement immutability does not allow any authority to modify the content of the blockchain ledger authorities have no enforcement power over crypto assets a DAO’s crypto assets cannot be frozen, seized, or confiscated . Authorities cannot force action upon a DAO either : only the community acting within code can trigger an action from the entity enforcement of a judgment rendered by a court can only happen with the cooperation of the DAO This leads to significant risk of non-compliance with the judgment because people know that coercive enforcement is not realistic | Jurisdiction Dispute Involving A DAO? do not end finding a court jurisdiction has aggrieved party impossible enforcing judgment tech prevents authorities exercising enforcement immutability any authority modify content ledger no enforcement power cannot be frozen, seized, or confiscated force action either community acting within code only happen cooperation of the DAO significant risk non-compliance judgment know coercive enforcement not realistic | ['Is It Enough To Have Jurisdiction Over A Dispute Involving A DAO? ', 'Challenges to seeking justice in case of a dispute involving a DAO do not end with finding a court having jurisdiction over the dispute. Even if a court has jurisdiction and orders a DAO to transfer crypto assets, the aggrieved party may find it impossible to seek the enforcement of the judgment when the DAO does not comply. ', 'When it comes to enforcing a judgment on the blockchain, the technology prevents authorities from exercising their power of enforcement. The immutability that characterises blockchain technology does not allow any authority to modify the content of the blockchain ledger. Hence, authorities have no enforcement power over crypto assets. As a result, a DAO’s crypto assets cannot be frozen, seized, or confiscated. Authorities cannot force an action upon a DAO either: only the community of members acting within the parameters of the code can trigger an action from the entity. In other words, the enforcement of a judgment rendered by a court can only happen with the cooperation of the DAO community. This leads to a significant risk of non-compliance with the judgment because people know that coercive enforcement is not a realistic option. ', 'Since authorities have no power to enforce on the blockchain judgments rendered by their courts, the efficiency of justice cannot be guaranteed. However, the court could order a compensation (e.g., the payment of damages) to identified members of a DAO in order to circumvent the impossibility of enforcement on the blockchain. This could give the aggrieved party a fallback solution in order to receive compensation. This way, it would be the responsibility of the identified members to convince the DAO community to comply with the judgment, failing which they would find themselves personally liable for the payment of the compensation. '] | [
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6dee950adfe74badcc0c4ec6fbb31cc474e01c52bb592fec608669ce7731ba0a | This serves as an absolute bulwark against liability in situations where a ‘nearest person’ cannot be identified or where the judgment must be paid in tokens. | null | Usha R. Rodrigues 19, M.E. Kilpatrick Professor of Law, University of Georgia School of Law, “Law and the Blockchain,” Iowa Law Review, Vol. 104, pp 679–727 | start with how lawsuits look in the real world Say a loan is not repaid because of code . The creditor convinces New York it has jurisdiction obtains a judgment It cannot enforce unless the blockchain recognize valid court orders and effectuate them creditor would need to identify Susan Then prove the tokenholder held the tokens at time of default could not force liquidation if the code did not permit liquidation any attempt would be rejected by consensus of miners the lack of a legal intervention point protects against traditional partnership vulnerability while the DAO in theory may be a partnership legal recourse in practice will prove impossible the DAO would have to code that right in | the DAO upend the spectrum of business entities. it would help to start with how lawsuits look in the real world . Susan operates a small business She's gotten in over her head, and the salon owes more than it can pay. The business folds Susan never filed as a LLC As a result, Susan is personally Now suppose Susan set up a business on the blockchain Say a loan of one of the creditors is not repaid because of a fault in the code . The creditor convinces a New York court it has jurisdiction . It obtains a judgment for $100,000 . It cannot enforce against SBS unless the blockchain has a way to recognize valid court orders and effectuate them . In other words, it would need a legal intervention point coded into the blockchain that recognized the legitimacy of the judgment, and provided a means to effectuate it . What of tokenholders? What of the unlimitedjoint and several personal liability that makes real-world partnership such a dangerous form? The answer to that takes us to limited liability SBS's creditor would need to identify the true identity of Susan to get at that tokenholder's personal assets Then the creditor would have to prove the tokenholder in question held the tokens at the time of the default The code will almost certainly not automatically provide access to tokenholder accounts . And the pseudonymous nature of the blockchain creates a practical obstacle to pursuing individual tokenholders' real-world assets creditors could force her to transfer tokens in the wallet But could not use those tokens to force liquidation This inability stems from the fact that the blockchain is a decentralized and distributed technology no one person controls the code. Even if a court rendered judgment in favor of a particular creditor , if the code did not permit a liquidation any attempt by a creditor or a coder in the creditor's employ to update the blockchain to liquidate the entity would be rejected by the consensus of miners . Such a change would therefore not become part of the distributed ledger Again, the lack of a legal intervention point protects against the traditional partnership vulnerability to partner creditors. while the DAO in theory may be a partnership , that most vulnerable of business forms, legal recourse in practice will prove well-nigh impossible . Because of the ability to code smart contracts directly into the blockchain, assets can be reliably apportioned to specific uses without the need for a separate entity structure obviating the need for the separate organization as a practical matter, it would be difficult, if not impossible, to enforce any theoretical liquidation right if it is not already encoded in the block chain. In theory , the tokenholders' creditors would have the right to liquidate the DAO . But in practice , the DAO would have to code that right in to provide a legal intervention point on which the penalty default rules of partnership a place to take effect . The law gives creditors that power in the real world . But it cannot in the DAO | upend spectrum of business entities. how lawsuits look in the real world blockchain because of a fault in the code convinces a New York court has jurisdiction obtains a judgment $100,000 cannot enforce blockchain recognize valid court orders effectuate them need a legal intervention point coded into the blockchain recognized the legitimacy of the judgment, and provided a means to effectuate it tokenholders? unlimitedjoint and several personal liability real-world dangerous form? limited liability identify the true identity of Susan Then prove tokenholder in question held the tokens access tokenholder accounts pseudonymous nature force her transfer tokens wallet not force liquidation decentralized distributed technology no one person rendered judgment particular creditor code permit any attempt rejected by the consensus of miners not become part of the distributed ledger legal intervention point against traditional partnership vulnerability theory legal recourse in practice will prove well-nigh impossible . reliably apportioned specific uses separate entity structure obviating separate organization enforce In theory have the right to liquidate the DAO practice code that right in to provide a legal intervention point on which the penalty default rules of partnership a place to take effect gives creditors real world cannot in the DAO | ["With the corporate exceptionalism theories of Part II in mind, we can begin to appreciate the potential the DAO offers of upending the spectrum of business entities. Perhaps it would help to start with how lawsuits look in the real world. Susan operates a small nail care business with Jim, Susan's Salon. She's gotten in over her head, and the salon owes suppliers more than it can pay. The business folds, and it turns out that Susan never filed with the state where she operates as a corporation, LLC, or other limited liability entity. As a result, Susan is personally liable for the debts of the business creditors.203 They take her to court, prove that she is liable, and obtain ajudgment against her. She is forced to sell her house and car to pay the judgment. ", 'Now let\'s suppose Susan instead set up a different business on the blockchain, Susan\'s Blockchain Storage ("SBS"), that will create a decentralized marketplace for storing files, using the blockchain to encrypt them.2o4 Any business faces two types of potential creditors, voluntary and involuntary (that is, tort) creditors.205 As to the former, the code of the blockchain would have to specify the terms and conditions of loans in order for an obligation to arise. ', 'The 2016 DAO had no creditors. Although its coders described it in terms of a corporation, it was more of a virtual venture capital fund-it had no operating costs, and thus no need of creditors. But future DAOs could offer a security interest to creditors that could be baked directly into the smart contract. One could imagine a creditor lending to a future DAO, on the condition of a smart contract that provides the terms for repayment with interest. The DAO could in the initial code-or after, presumably, with a subsequent vote-create debt versions of tokens that automatically entitle creditors to assets under certain circumstances: including before a split, before a liquidation, or upon certain dates or under certain conditions, as when token activity reaches a specified level', "The attraction from the creditors' perspective is considerable. Monitoring a borrower's activities constitutes a major transaction cost of any loan arrangement (for this reason, banks and other lenders protect themselves with covenants, inspection rights, and other mechanisms to ensure that the creditor can be assured of repayment) . 6 But monitoring would be far less costly if the creditor could code enforcement mechanisms directly into the contract. On the blockchain, creditors would have to do very little in monitoring asset levels and prior claims, because the contract encoded in the DAO would protect their interest. In this sense, creditors could lend money without the risk of opportunism and the commensurate high cost of monitoring, as long as the code itself established, for example, trigger points for return of principal. For example, the code could specify that if the DAO's assets dip below a certain amount, the debt is automatically called and the loan repaid. Interest rates could reset automatically, and creditors could waive protective covenants by means of voting on the blockchain.", "A key point is this: In order to mimic their real-world counterparts in obtaining a right to individual tokenholders' personal assets-a right that is automatically theirs in traditional partnerships27-creditors would have to establish that right within the blockchain code. Otherwise, although DAO creditors would have the theoretical right to reach those personal assets, in practice the blockchain would not permit them to do so. On the other hand, tort creditors are involuntary creditors who cannot anticipate being the victims of a particular tortfeasor.2o8 These creditors would have no ability to contract for recourse to tokenholder, and the default code would, as with voluntary creditors, not permit access to individual accounts. A DAO creditor would have to reduce a claim to judgment, track down individual tokenholders, and convince judges to enforce a claim.", "Say a loan of one of the creditors of SBS, our hypothetical business, is not repaid because of a fault in the code. The creditor convinces a New York court that it has jurisdiction. It obtains a judgment against SBS for $100,000. It cannot enforce a judgment against SBS unless the blockchain has a way to recognize valid court orders and effectuate them. In other words, it would need a legal intervention point coded into the blockchain that recognized the legitimacy of the judgment, and provided a means to effectuate it. What of SBS's tokenholders? What of the unlimitedjoint and several personal liability that makes real-world partnership such a dangerous form? The answer to that question, and the potential for a legal intervention point in the intersection between the blockchain and the tokenholder's corporeal-world identity, takes us to that central corporate feature, limited liability.", 'A. LIMITED LIABILITY', "SBS's creditor would need to identify the true identity of Susan, or at least one of SBS's tokenholders in order to get at that tokenholder's personal assets. Then the creditor would have to prove that the tokenholder in question held the tokens at the time of the default. In a sense, the blockchain makes this proof easy by laying bare the history of all of SBS's transactions. Even with this proof, however, SBS's creditor faces two obstacles to satisfying a judgment: The code will almost certainly not automatically provide access to tokenholder accounts. And the pseudonymous nature of the blockchain creates a practical obstacle to pursuing individual tokenholders' real-world assets.", "First, while in theory one could imagine tokenholders agreeing to some level of individual recourse (for example, that the DAO creditor could reach into a tokenholder's personal wallet for up to 50 ether), in practice it is hard to imagine a tokenholder affirmatively opting into the partnership's default of unlimited liability by permitting a DAO creditor unlimited access to a personal wallet. Yet, that's exactly what would have to occur in order to mirror real-world unlimited liability. An entity-level escrow account would be the more natural mechanism for providing such protection. More likely would be for the DAOs of the future to encode protections contractually limiting DAO creditors to claims upon the DAO and the DAO alone-thus contracting for limited liability, again in the absence of the corporate code.", "Second, the law presupposes that the partnership's creditors will be able to ascertain the partners' identities, and then pursue them to satisfy the firm's debts. While a partnership creditor in the real world can expect headaches and holdups in identifying the appropriate jurisdiction, reducing a claim to judgment and then locating and attaching partner assets,2 09 at least the creditor knows what defendants to go after.", 'The virtual world of the blockchain is a different story. Ethereum and other DLTs are "not anonymous, but, rather, pseudo-anonymous," or pseudonymous-\'°: the blockchain preserves all transactions in the network, allowing anyone to inspect and analyze them.21 All transactions linked to a particular address are visible on the blockchain, which is public and transparent.22 "However, it is not possible to link a particular wallet address to the real world identity of a person/company without any additional information."2 3', 'Security experts described this as "pseudonymous privacy," comparing it to "writing books under a nom de plume."\'\'4 An anonymous author can produce dozens of books under a pseudonym. J.K Rowling penned the Cuckoo\'s Calling under the nom de plume Robert Galbraith-just as Stephen King wrote under the name Richard Bachman.2\'5 In each case, the pseudonym cloaked the author\'s true identity effectively for a time. But once the pseudonym was linked to its real-life counterpart, the author\'s entire pseudonymic writing history became compromised. Similarly, as soon as individuals\' personal details are linked to their bitcoin (to use the most widespread cryptocurrency) address, their entire transaction history-including any available assets-are laid bare as well."\'', 'As former federal prosecutorJason Weinstein explains:', 'A user\'s bitcoin address isjust an account number that stays with the user; if you can connect that address to a particular user, you can identify and trace all of the transactions in which that individual has participated using that address. Indeed, if the individual uses an exchange or wallet service as the "on ramp" to the blockchain, then the bitcoin address is essentially about as anonymous as a bank account number, because the exchange or wallet service will maintain records linking the address to a particular identity, much like a bank maintains records establishing the owner of each bank account.27', 'Note that the pseudonymity of cryptocurrency does not perfectly protect against identification. There are three main ways in which to de-anonymize bitcoin users (and the same principles apply to Ethereum) 2 8', '(1) "Since Bitcoin is a peer to peer network (vulnerable to hackers), if hackers can connect to the Bitcoin network using several nodes or computers there is a high chance that they can extract enough information to decipher where transactions originated.19', '(2) Bitcoin addresses can be used to identify users: ', 'Bitcoin addresses can be linked to real identities if these real identities are used in combination with the bitcoin addresses in some way. This includes addresses used to deposit or withdraw money to or from a (regulated) exchange or wallet service, publicly exposed donation addresses, or addresses simply used to send bitcoin to someone (including the online store) when using a real identity.22', 'Cryptocurrency exchanges are subject to know-your-customer and anti-money laundering rules, so individuals making use of these exchanges-as will most unsophisticated users-can be relatively easily identified by law enforcement.22', '(3) The inherent transparency of cryptocurrency networks facilitates user identification: ', "Perhaps most importantly, all transactions over the Bitcoin network are completely transparent and traceable by anyone. It's typically this complete transparency that allows multiple Bitcoin addresses to be clustered together, and be tied to the same user. Therefore, if just one of these clustered addresses is linked to a real-world identity through one or several of the other de-anonymizing methods, all clustered addresses can be [revealed] .222", 'Nevertheless, as one commentator has observed, sophisticated users who are "willing to go [to] extraordinary lengths can find ways to acquire and use bitcoin anonymously."223 Even so, "the open nature of the transaction ledger and other unknowns leave open the possibility that identities and activities once considered perfectly secure may be revealed at some point down the road."224', 'In conclusion, DAO tokenholders enjoy two main bulwarks against personal liability for firm liabilities. First, the blockchain itself can limit contract creditors to the assets of the firm. Though this is a smart contract, presumably a court would recognize its validity in the corporeal world, since the creditor has affirmatively agreed not to have recourse to individual tokenholders assets. Second, for tort creditors225 or non-tort without contractual protections in place, pseudonymity provides a weaker shield against firm liabilities. A creditor faced with the prospect of finding the right jurisdiction, reducing a claim to judgment, and then identifying and tracking down tokenholders may well conclude the effort is not worth her time.', 'B. ASSET PARTITIONING VIA CONTRACT ALONE', 'Remember, the reverse of limited liability is entity shielding.226 Here the concern is the threat that the debts of the partners pose to the entity itself. Say Susan owns tokens of a DAO. Further say that her creditors are able to reduce their claims against her to judgment. Susan, like presumably most debtors, would likely try not to disclose that she had a blockchain asset. Her creditors or the bankruptcy court would first have to know of the existence of her wallet, with the tokens, ether, or bitcoins contained therein to potentially use that asset to make themselves whole. But what if creditors determine that she owns DAO tokens? They could go to court (presuming they can find a court with jurisdiction) to require her to divulge her key. They would have to prove their claim on any tokens or assets in the wallet-presumably they could do so with ease. Then they could force her to transfer any tokens in the wallet. But they could not use those tokens to force liquidation of the actual business--or, following the more modern rule, a buyout of whatever the tokens are worth. ', "This inability stems from the fact that the blockchain is a decentralized and distributed technology. There is no one person who controls the code. Even if a court rendered judgment in favor of a particular creditor, if the code did not permit a liquidation, then any attempt by a creditor or a coder in the creditor's employ to update the blockchain to liquidate the entity would be rejected by the consensus of miners. Such a change would therefore not become part of the distributed ledger. Thus, even after finding a court with jurisdiction, attempts to enforce a judgment against an organization would founder if that organization's basic code does not recognize such ajudgment. ", 'Again, the lack of a legal intervention point protects against the traditional partnership vulnerability to partner creditors. Thus, while the DAO in theory may be a partnership, that most vulnerable of business forms, legal recourse in practice will prove well-nigh impossible. ', 'To summarize, the DAO is legally a partnership, so that personal creditors could in theory liquidate it. But the tokens do not give those creditors that power. Hansmann, Kraakman, and Squire assert that only organizational law can perform the entity shielding function of providing protection from the creditors of individual investors, but in the virtual world contract can play the role.227 Because the smart contract does not permit liquidation, effectively it provides entity shielding. ', "More broadly than mere entity shielding, the blockchain provides a radical form of asset partitioning. Because of the ability to code smart contracts directly into the blockchain, assets can be reliably apportioned to specific uses without the need for a separate entity structure, obviating the need for the separate organization Triantis identifies.228 Similarly, addressing Blair's concern about capital lock-in, a DAO's blockchain could provide that no single tokenholder could liquidate the blockchain.229 Indeed, as a practical matter, it would be difficult, if not impossible, to enforce any theoretical liquidation right if it is not already encoded in the block chain. ", "This point is worth restating. In theory, the tokenholders' creditors would have the right to liquidate the DAO. But in practice, the DAO would have to code that right in to provide a legal intervention point on which the penalty default rules of partnership a place to take effect. The law gives creditors that power in the real world. But it cannot in the DAO."] | [
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] | 1,546,329,600 | 94 |
659c9531cb4d49d040e3c7d1c34223d4f03ab8d4391a2c762e73025fc96fd1ed | 1. UNCERTAINTY. DAO participation is skyrocketing now because of the perceived benefits of decentralization---the AFF snaps that back by treating a DAO as a centralized entity. Every member will fear being on the hook. | null | Laura Shin & Nikhilesh De 9/30, CoinDesk's managing editor for global policy and regulation, “Why the Ooki DAO Case Could Hurt Participation in DAOs,” Unchained Podcast, 9/30/22, transcribed by Otter, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z4LZzmco7xI | enforcement could make all of defi illegal the implication is if you're voting in any governance and that DAO happens to engage in some illicit activity , even if you're voting to not do the thing , you're still liable that's a concern we cannot arbitrarily decide who is accountable based on an unsupported legal theory People get airdropped tokens all the time they don't know about it If anyone airdropped was sued, that'd be pretty bad for industry hilariously difficult , enforce there were more than 2,200 DAOs $10 billion worth of value this could have a chilling effect on voting and on DAOs altogether | this enforcement action indicated that it could make all of defi illegal the implication is if you're voting in any DAOs governance process and that DAO happens to engage in some illicit activity , even if you're voting to not do the illegal thing , you're still liable that's definitely a concern you vote against that proposal , the implication here seem to be that you're still personally liable that is a very valid concern we cannot arbitrarily decide who is accountable for violations based on an unsupported legal theory the CFTC is going after an unincorporated association part of that comes down to how are they identifying the members who exactly are you trying to sue the CFTC does not have an answer there are a couple different ways you could approach DAOs, one being you to go after anyone who received a token , in an airdrop that's not ideal . People get airdropped tokens all the time , they don't necessarily know about it , they don't necessarily volunteer If anyone who got you know, airdropped the token was sued, that'd be pretty bad for the industry hilariously difficult to enforce , because it's a lot of people . The other extreme is, you have to identify the individuals most responsible the ones absolutely trying to engage in non-KYC offerings , the listing of margin trades The middle ground seems to be going after anyone who voted on a governance proposal this is unprecedented simply voting in one of the governance proposals would put you in a new category of being able to be targeted . Whereas if you didn't vote suddenly, you wouldn't be subject there were more than 2,200 DAOs it was like $10 billion worth of value this could have a chilling effect on voting and the DAOs , and perhaps on DAOs altogether | all of defi illegal implication any DAOs governance process happens some illicit activity you're not do the illegal thing still liable definitely a concern against that proposal still personally liable very valid concern arbitrarily decide who is accountable for violations unsupported legal theory unincorporated association identifying the members exactly trying to sue not have an answer received a token airdrop not ideal airdropped all the time don't necessarily know about it volunteer pretty bad for the industry hilariously difficult enforce lot of people identify the individuals most responsible absolutely trying to engage in non-KYC offerings listing of margin trades middle ground anyone who voted on a governance proposal unprecedented voting new category able to be targeted didn't vote wouldn't 2,200 DAOs $10 billion worth of value chilling effect voting DAOs DAOs altogether | ['Laura Shin 05:20', "Oh, interesting, because I did happen to speak to Gabriel Shapiro of Delphi digital who - this was for my premium offering, I, as of this moment, haven't released it yet. But he said that he thought that this enforcement action kind of indicated that it could make all of defi illegal. So it sounds like you don't agree with that interpretation of Gabriel's?", 'Nikhilesh De 05:44', "Well, so I guess first off, I should definitely clarify that I'm not a lawyer and never went to law school, for any listeners who want to know. So, you know, I definitely respect Gabe, I think he might be right. But I also think that, you know, the CFTC has traditionally kind of painted this picture of being a friendlier regulator to the crypto industry. I don't know that they'd want to blow it, you know, that entire reputation away by going after all of defi. But, again, I think in this particular case, it was just kind of such a blatant example of a defi project that was trying to break the law that the CFTC said, yeah, you know, we're gonna go after this. You know, I think the issue that Gabe has that a lot of, you know, again, a lot of industry has is that the way the CFTC is going about this is by going after any token holder who voted in the governance process. And so the implication there is, of course, okay, well, if you're voting in any kind of DAOs governance process, and you know, that DAO happens to engage in some kind of illicit activity, even if you're voting to be, you know, to not do the illegal thing, you're still liable. And that's definitely, I think, a concern, you know, if you're part of a DAO and that DAO decides, okay, you know, we're going to get rid of our KYC process, we're going to launch something that could require KYC process, we're not going to have that, and you vote against that proposal, the implication here does seem to be that you're still gonna be held personally liable, even if you are trying to do your part to not allow that illegal activity to happen. If that's the actual case, and again, the CFTC hasn't said anything, really, so, you know, we don't know if that's how they're gonna interpret to set some precedent. But it seems like a reasonable assumption. And so, yeah, I think that is definitely a very valid concern that a lot of individuals who are you know, attorneys, and members of DAOs that are watching this are concerned.", 'Laura Shin 07:33', 'Yeah. And this actually takes us to Commissioner Summer Mersingers dissent. But before we get there, just one last question that I wanted to ask you briefly was BCX, actually had also been the victim of numerous hacks in which customer funds were lost. So do you think that that is another reason why this enforcement action happened against them? Was that just like, in another kind of low hanging fruit type situation?', 'Nikhilesh De 07:56', "Yeah, I think there was, you know, a lot of attention paid to that. I think there might even have been a lawsuit against the company, which, you know, certainly once you start filing lawsuits, and you have those documents out there, it makes it easier for, for example, CFTC investigators who are, you know, looking at these legal filings saying, okay, so this company did, what exactly? And then, you know, they're gonna check and say, well, they never registered with us. So I think the hacks themselves I don't know, necessarily, if the CFTC would have just gone after a company for getting hacked, but it definitely made it a more high profile target. And subsequently, you know, once that's out there is a lot easier to say, okay, well, you know, we're gonna look into this company and try and figure out what's what.", 'Laura Shin 08:38', "So let's talk about CFTC Commissioner Mersingers dissent. She said, while I do not condone individuals or entities blatantly violating the Commodity Exchange Act or our rules, we cannot arbitrarily decide who is accountable for those violations based on an unsupported legal theory, amounting to regulation by enforcement, while federal and state policies developing. Can you elaborate a little bit on her objections?", 'Nikhilesh De 09:03', "One of the key objections is just the CFTC is going after an unincorporated association. And that is a thing in the US. It's a term, it's a legal term. But it does seem a little unprecedented how the CFTC is approaching it. And again, part of that comes down to how are they identifying the individual members? And there's a whole other debate around that part, actually, that we should totally get into later. But the question is, you know, who exactly are you trying to sue, who are the defendant or the respondents in this case? And the CFTC does not currently have an answer to that. She's also got concerns about kind of the legal precedent that the CFTC is going with. Some of that comes down to a state law precedent, which the CFTC may or may not necessarily be able to enforce being a federal agency. Again, this was the part where me not being a lawyer kind of comes a handicap. I'm actually not 100% certain of the legal nuances of that, but the CFTC is case as I understand it, depends a lot on state tort law. And so a state regulator might want to go after for, you know, a company for that, or private individuals might want to go after a company in state court before that. The CFTC going after a unincorporated association at the federal level in a federal court might be a little bit more tricky. And it seems like one of Commissioner Mersengers, objections is tied to that. And the other part, of course, is just, you know, going back to the identification question earlier, there are a couple different ways you could approach DAOs, one being you to go after anyone who received a token, in an airdrop. Obviously, that's not ideal. People get airdropped tokens all the time, they don't necessarily know about it, they don't necessarily volunteer to get these tokens. If anyone who got you know, airdropped the token was sued, that'd be pretty bad for the industry, that would be, I think, hilariously difficult for the CFTC to, you know, enforce, because it's a lot of people. The other extreme is, you have to identify the individuals that you believe are most responsible, the ones who are absolutely trying to engage in the non-KYC product offerings, the listing of these margin trades, whatnot. Again, I don't think the CFTC has done that at this point. I don't think they know the identities necessarily, or at least, if they do, they haven't said so in any of the court documents I've seen, the CFTC has to still find out who exactly it is they're suing. The middle ground seems to be going after anyone who voted on a governance proposal with their tokens. And this is again, this is kind of unprecedented. I mean, it's a kind of it is very unprecedented. We've never seen this before. My understanding is, you know, in the dissent, the commissioner said, you know, we should, as an agency, put out a request for comments, we should put out some rulemaking and guidance and figure out, you know, get public feedback to figure out how to do this right, rather than put it in an enforcement action, throw it out there, where people can't provide feedback unless their responses and just make that precedent. And I think that is fair. You know, this is kind of a situation where if you are trying to create regulation, a feedback process seems to make most sense. If the goal is to just get this company out and in doing so, create a precedent for yourself through the courts, that might be more like what the CFTC has actually done.", 'Laura Shin 12:17', "AD OMITTED Back to my conversation with Nick, as you mentioned, Commissioner messenger said that she felt that an unintended consequence of this enforcement action would be around this issue that you raised that simply voting in one of the governance proposals would put you in a new category of being able to be targeted. Whereas if you didn't vote just if you were too busy, or whatever, like suddenly, you wouldn't be subject to this enforcement action. And so she was saying that this could actually create kind of like two classes of token holders, unintentionally. So can you talk a little bit more about you know, why it is that people are concerned about this? ", 'Nikhilesh De 13:33', "I mean, I think the big thing is just if you are a token holder and you're engaging in a DAO in good faith, you might not necessarily have the expertise to understand okay, well, it's every single thing I do aboveboard right. Companies have lawyers and legal counsel, they have internal lawyers in GCS. They have external lawyers, they have consultants, they have usually a dedicated team that says, okay, here are all the things we're doing. Here are things that might be in violation of law. Here are things that are definitely not. I don't think a lot of DAOs, or most DAOs really, have that kind of entities. You know, by design, anyone can participate. So maybe a couple of people in the DAO are aware, okay, yeah. So, you know, most of what we do is aboveboard, but this might thing, you know, this one thing might be illegal. And if most of the DAO is on the where then they might be held liable for something that they didn't know about, or that they weren't, you know, informed enough to want to, you know, avoid it. And that can be a problem, right? If you aren't participating in good faith, you're, you think everything's aboveboard, and suddenly you get sued? Yeah, that's damaging. It's a problem. You know, for any individual who gets sued. Of course, it's going to be it might be on your record, or you know, people look you up later. Oh, so you got sued by the CFTC, for engaging in illicit activity? Not about not a good look for a lot of people. So I think that's just one example of how this could be presidential in a kind of, you know, not great way for people representing DAOs. You know, is the effect going to be to depress DAO participation? I don't know. I do know that, you know, you mentioned a Gabe earlier. I know he has put out a call for any member of OokiDAO who wants representation to reach out. So we'll see if they're able to pull together some legal counsel. And you know, fight this. But there are definitely a couple of ways where, intentionally or not, the CFTC might be depressing DAO participation, and or not centralizing, but at least limiting kind of the growth of this industry in a way that people weren't really expecting, or, you know, even thinking about before.", 'Laura Shin 15:49', 'Yeah, and I saw Tim Copeland of The Block wrote an article where he said, there were more than 2,200 DAOs. And it was like, about $10 billion worth of value in those DAOs. And as you mentioned, you know, Commissioner Mersinger was concerned that this could have a chilling effect on voting and the DAOs, and, frankly, perhaps on DAOs altogether. So now, let\'s talk about, you know, an issue that we alluded to earlier. The CFTC posted a notice in the OokiDAO forum, that the members were being served, and they use the username "CFTC enforcement." And I wonder, you know, what you thought of that method? Would there be any defense for people who are OokiDAO token holders that they weren\'t properly notified? Or what are people saying about this method?'] | [
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cdc90ff246943760d6778023176f967e08dcc61a81aebed3c5163618c04571f7 | 2. NON-ZERO LIABILITY. Even though liability is limited, it’s greater than zero, even for persons who didn’t do anything illegal. This causes good faith actors to forgo voting for governance OR quit DAOs altogether. | null | Summer K. Mersinger 9/22, commissioner at the CFTC, “Dissenting Statement of Commissioner Summer K. Mersinger Regarding Enforcement Actions Against: 1) bZeroX, LLC, Tom Bean, and Kyle Kistner; and 2) Ooki DAO,” CFTC, 9/22/22, | the Commission defines the DAO as holders of tokens that have voted the approach imposes sanctions based on an inapplicable theory arbitrarily defines the DAO in a manner that picks winners and losers , and undermines the public interest by disincentivizing good governance | we cannot arbitrarily decide who is accountable for violations based on an unsupported legal theory amounting to regulation by enforcement the Commission is issuing a Order finding that a l l c violated requirements with respect to a blockchain-based software protocol The settlement Order finds co-founders and co-owners liable for those violations There is nothing new or unusual about these charges because Bean and Kistner transferred control of the protocol to the DAO , and the protocol continues to operate in the same manner , the Commission also is filing an action through a Complaint charging the same violations by DAO as an unincorporated association Certainly, conduct illegal is not acceptable whether done by a corporation or an unincorporated association However the Commission defines the DAO as holders of tokens that have voted on governance proposals with respect to running the business the approach imposes governmental sanctions for violations based on an inapplicable State-law legal theory developed for contract and tort disputes between private parties arbitrarily defines the DAO association in a manner that unfairly picks winners and losers , and undermines the public interest by disincentivizing good governance in this new crypto environment This approach constitutes blatant “regulation by enforcement” Finally, the Commission ignores an alternative, well-established basis for imposing liability for the DAO’s violations i.e., aiding and abetting liability —that is specifically authorized and would solve all of these problems we all are mindful of the need to protect customers who are participating in the largely unregulated crypto space. those good intentions do not entitle to act without proper legal authority | cannot arbitrarily decide who is accountable for violations unsupported legal theory regulation by enforcement l l c blockchain-based software protocol transferred control DAO continues to operate same manner also same violations DAO unincorporated association corporation unincorporated association DAO holders of tokens voted running the business governmental sanctions violations inapplicable State-law legal theory contract and tort disputes private parties arbitrarily DAO association unfairly picks winners and losers public interest disincentivizing good governance new crypto environment blatant “regulation by enforcement” ignores alternative, well-established basis aiding and abetting liability specifically authorized solve all of these problems not entitle without proper legal authority | ['Today the Commission is called upon to consider novel and complex questions about how our governing statute, the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA), applies in a world of digital assets, blockchain technology, and decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) —technology that did not exist when the statute was enacted in 1974, and that has just started to develop since Congress last amended the statute as part of the Dodd-Frank Act in 2010.', 'Unfortunately, I cannot support the Commission’s approach to this particular matter.[1] While I do not condone individuals or entities blatantly violating the CEA or our rules, we cannot arbitrarily decide who is accountable for those violations based on an unsupported legal theory amounting to regulation by enforcement while federal and state policy is developing. For these reasons, I am respectfully dissenting in this matter.', 'As I mentioned, I do not approve of or excuse activity that violates the CEA or those who direct others to participate in unlawful activity. Thus, there are parts of the Commission’s two related enforcement actions in this matter that I support:', 'First, the Commission is issuing a settlement Order finding that bZeroX, LLC, a limited liability company, violated exchange-trading and registration requirements in the CEA and the CFTC’s anti-money laundering rules with respect to a blockchain-based software protocol that accepted orders for, and facilitated, margined and leveraged retail commodity transactions. The settlement Order further finds that Tom Bean and Kyle Kistner, co-founders and co-owners of bZeroX, LLC, are liable for those violations pursuant to the provisions in Section 13(b) of the CEA regarding control person liability for violations by a corporate entity.[2] There is nothing particularly new or unusual about these charges, and I would vote to approve this settlement if it were based solely on those findings.', 'Second, because Bean and Kistner transferred control of the protocol to the Ooki DAO, and the protocol continues to operate in the same illegal manner, the Commission also is filing an injunctive enforcement action through a Complaint charging the same violations by Ooki DAO as an unincorporated association. Certainly, I agree that conduct illegal under the CEA and CFTC rules, is not acceptable whether done by a corporation or an unincorporated association.', 'However, in its settlement Order and Complaint, the Commission defines the Ooki DAO unincorporated association as those holders of Ooki tokens that have voted on governance proposals with respect to running the business. Because Bean and Kistner fall into that category, the settlement Order also finds them liable for violations of the CEA and CFTC rules by the Ooki DAO based solely on their status as members of the Ooki DAO unincorporated association—relying on a State-law doctrine that members of a for-profit unincorporated association are jointly and severally liable for the debts of that association.', 'I cannot agree with the Commission’s approach of determining liability for DAO token holders based on their participation in governance voting for a number of reasons.', 'First, not only does this approach fail to rely on any legal authority in the CEA, it also does not rely on any case law relevant to this type of action. Instead, the Commission’s approach imposes governmental sanctions for violations of the CEA and CFTC rules based on an inapplicable State-law legal theory developed for contract and tort disputes between private parties;', 'Additionally, this approach arbitrarily defines the Ooki DAO unincorporated association in a manner that unfairly picks winners and losers, and undermines the public interest by disincentivizing good governance in this new crypto environment;', 'This approach constitutes blatant “regulation by enforcement” by setting policy based on new definitions and standards never before articulated by the Commission or its staff, nor put out for public comment; and', 'Finally, the Commission ignores an alternative, well-established basis for imposing liability for the Ooki DAO’s violations of the CEA and CFTC rules in this case – i.e., aiding and abetting liability—that is specifically authorized by Congress and that would solve all of these problems.', 'Although there are no allegations of any fraud having occurred here, we all are mindful of the need to protect customers who are participating in the largely unregulated crypto space. But those good intentions do not entitle the Commission to act through enforcement without proper legal authority, notice, or public input. '] | [
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c73800402b3e60e255f624463c8c3830af3afce47490867dca2fea2e38895668 | Using punitive criminal law to produce aligned AI is inevitably rigid AND biases AI towards classism---only a restorative justice approach engrains a genuinely utilitarian ethic. | null | Adnan Hadzi & Denis Roio 19, Hadzi is currently working as resident researcher at the University of Malta, has been a regular at Deckspace Media Lab, for the last decade, a period over which he has developed his research at Goldsmiths, University of London, based on his work with Deptford; Roio is a software developer and ethical hacker, doctor in philosophy, coined the term "Algorithmic Sovereignty" with a public dissertation and published several articles on topics related to free software, open culture, and digital media, “Restorative Justice in Artificial Intelligence Crimes,” Spheres, vol. 5, 2019, pp. 1–18 | AI benefits the powerful few focussing on existential concerns emotional and social AI if created could be capable of crimes likely antisocial and harmful unless carefully designed legal code is a strategy controlled by powerful elites who wield law to their benefit powerfully interlinked with economy legislation has roots in the neo-liberal legal code as the custodian of public order the disciplinary power of legislation leads to self-discipline of individuals which benefit the upper-class installs control into a terrain that appears actively to resist it there seems to be no unbiased code maintenance of order must reproduce unfair society not utilitarian but rather to the interests of those owning tech restorative justice offer “a solution that deliver more meaningful justice With potential AI crimes instead of a retributive approach, an ethical discourse with deeper consideration for sufferers should be adopted Millar described two perceptions of justice One is behavioural control punishing any wrongdoer and second focuses on restoration Thus an alternative for ethical AI might be to follow restorative justice Restorative justice allow AI to learn how to care about ethics conciliation during which offence is deliberated upon Both come to agreement on restoration to the situation before the AI crime happened advocates compassion for the victim and offender , and consciousness as to the repercussion punishment may seem adequate however there is potential to discuss rules allowing a restorative process , rather than punishment those suffering have little say in courtroom hearings where lawyers argue restorative sessions offer engagement in the process support victims better than the punitive system As victims and offenders represent themselves sessions become more affordable meaning costs would be eliminated This would benefit wider society and AI would not be defined by a powerful elite justice could not only discuss AI crimes themselves , but also get to the root of the problem | the adoption of AI benefits the powerful few focussing on their own existential concerns there is no AI tech which is self - conscious and self-aware able to deal with emotional and social intelligence It is a discussion around AI as a speculative hypothetical entity One could ask, if such a system were created , at what point could one talk of personhood? what criteria could there be in order to say an AI was capable of committing AI crimes ? analysing AI tech with regard to the nature of law with a philosophical and sociological focus enables us to demonstrate a utilitarian and authoritarian trend in the adoption of AI AI is “ likely to behave in antisocial and harmful ways unless very carefully designed the legal code is a strategy , a manipulation of standards accepted by society a standardising arrangement which defines how society should operate. the adoption of AI technologies is a process controlled by powerful elites who wield law to their benefit powerful interests have shaped legal codes for a long time legal code is powerfully interlinked with the economy with the emergence of capitalist society , “the social relations of legal practice were transformed into commercial relations capitalist society not only impacts legislation , but also has its roots in the neo-liberal writing of legal code we have reached the point where AI is being deployed by the armed forces on a large scale legal code is perceived by society as the custodian of public order by precluding objectionable actions, legislation directs society’s activities in a manner appropriate to jurisprudence. the disciplinary power of legislation leads to a self-discipline of individuals the “rule of truth” has disciplined civilisation , allowing for an adoption of AI technologies which benefit mainly the upper-class Discussions around truth form legislation into something that “ decides, transmits and itself extends upon the effects of power legislation, as an institution, is rolled out throughout society with very little resistance, or “proletarian counter-justice” this has made the justice system and legislation a for-profit system If power generates new opportunities rather than simply repressing following Foucault, more interaction and participation can extend and not simply challenge power relations the existence of protocols “not only installs control into a terrain that on its surface appears actively to resist it but goes on to create the highly controlled network environment to regulate AI control and censorship are introduced to networks by applying them to devices and nodes akin to Foucault’s panoptic apparatus legal code is skewed in favour of the upper-class and those who engage with politics in society which could be the corporate sector producing AI and business elites seeking to use AI for profit there seems to be no unbiased , fair legislation or legal code , and the maintenance of public order must reproduce an unfair class society the adoption of AI does not follow a utilitarian ethical code, benefiting society , but rather conforms to the interests of a small group , those owning AI tech nologies the prospect could be raised that restorative justice might offer “a solution that could deliver more meaningful justice With respect to AI and the potential inherent for AI crimes , instead of following a retributive legislative approach, an ethical discourse with deeper consideration for sufferers of AI crimes should be adopted Acting ethically is difficult due to the hyper expansion of big data research into artificial intelligence has gone from being a public service at universities to being run (and regarded) as businesses to generate profit could restorative justice offer an alternative way of dealing with the occurrence of AI crimes? Millar and Vidmar described two perceptions of justice One is behavioural control , following the legal code as strictly as possible , punishing any wrongdoer and second the restorative justice system, which focuses on restoration where harm was done. Thus an alternative for ethical implementation of AI with respect to legislation, might be to follow restorative justice principles . Restorative justice would allow AI to learn how to care about ethics a conciliation between victim and offender during which the offence is deliberated upon Both try to come to an agreement on how to achieve restoration for the damage done, to the situation before the AI crime happened . Restorative justice advocates compassion for the victim and offender , and consciousness on the part of the offenders as to the repercussion One can argue these evils are becoming more evident with the advance of AI For AI crimes punishment in the classical sense may seem adequate Duff argues a punitive approach educates the public serving to establish societal awareness of right or wrong Christie, however , criticises this execution of the law through conflict , there is potential to discuss the rules given by law, allowing for a restorative process , rather than a process characterised by punishment and strict following of rules those suffering most from crimes are suffering twice , as although it is the offenders being put on trial, the victims have little say in courtroom hearings where mainly lawyers argue It basically boils down to guilty or not guilty, and no discussion in between running restorative sessions helps both come to terms with what happened. The victims of AI crimes would not only be placed in front of a court , but also be offer ed engagement in the process of seeking justice and restoration Restorative justice might support victims better than the punitive system , as it allows sufferers to be heard in a personalised way , which could be adopted to the needs of victims (and offenders). As victims and offenders represent themselves in restorative conferencing sessions these become much more affordable meaning that the barrier to seeking due to financial costs would be eliminated This would benefit wider society and AI technologies would not only be defined by a powerful elite . Restorative justice could hold the potential not only to discuss the AI crimes themselves , but also get to the root of the problem and discuss the cause of AI crime restorative justice makes re-offending harder In such a scenario, a future AI system capable of committing AI crimes would need to have knowledge of ethics A legal system where human and machine work together on restoring justice, for social justice suggest reflections brought by new materialism should be taken into account: not only as a critical perspective on engendering and anthropomorphic representation of AI , but also to broaden the spectrum of what we consider to be justice Without this new perspective the sort of idealized AI image of a non-living intelligence that deals with enormous amounts of information risks to serve the abstraction of anthropocentric views into computationalist acceleration , with deafening results | AI powerful few own existential concerns no AI tech self - conscious self-aware emotional social intelligence speculative hypothetical entity if were personhood? committing AI crimes ? AI tech nature of law philosophical sociological focus utilitarian and authoritarian trend AI likely antisocial harmful ways very carefully designed legal code strategy manipulation of standards accepted society standardising arrangement controlled powerful elites wield law benefit shaped legal codes long time powerfully interlinked economy capitalist society social relations legal practice transformed commercial relations legislation also neo-liberal writing of legal code AI armed forces large scale perceived society custodian of public order disciplinary self-discipline individuals “rule of truth” disciplined civilisation mainly upper-class decides, transmits and itself extends effects of power justice system legislation for-profit system generates repressing more interaction participation extend not simply challenge installs control surface actively resist it highly controlled network environment regulate AI control censorship devices nodes panoptic apparatus skewed upper-class politics society corporate sector AI business elites use AI profit no unbiased , fair legislation or legal code must unfair class society not utilitarian benefiting society small group owning tech restorative justice more meaningful justice AI AI crimes retributive legislative ethical deeper consideration should be adopted ethically difficult hyper expansion of big data public universities businesses profit restorative justice alternative way of dealing with the occurrence of AI crimes? behavioural control following strictly as possible punishing wrongdoer second restorative justice restoration alternative restorative justice principles learn care about ethics conciliation victim and offender deliberated upon agreement before the AI crime happened compassion for the victim offender consciousness offenders repercussion more evident crimes punishment classical sense seem adequate Duff educates public societal awareness criticises conflict discuss the rules restorative process rather than punishment strict following of rules most suffering twice victims little say courtroom hearings lawyers argue no discussion in between restorative sessions both victims not only court also offer engagement process of seeking justice and restoration support victims better punitive personalised way adopted needs themselves affordable barrier to seeking eliminated benefit wider society AI not only be defined by a powerful elite only AI crimes themselves also root of the problem cause re-offending harder knowledge of ethics together social justice new materialism only critical perspective engendering anthropomorphic representation of AI broaden the spectrum what we consider to be justice abstraction of anthropocentric views computationalist acceleration deafening results | ['In order to lay the foundations for a discussion around the argument that the adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies benefits the powerful few,1 focussing on their own existential concerns,2 we decided to narrow down our analysis of the argument to jurisprudence (i.e. the philosophy of law), considering also the historical context. This paper signifies an edited version of Adnan Hadzi’s text on Social Justice and Artificial Intelligence, 3 exploring the notion of humanised artificial intelligence4 in order to discuss potential challenges society might face in the future. The paper does not discuss current forms and applications of artificial intelligence, as, so far, there is no AI technology, which is self-conscious and self-aware, being able to deal with emotional and social intelligence.5 It is a discussion around AI as a speculative hypothetical entity. One could then ask, if such a speculative self-conscious hardware/software system were created, at what point could one talk of personhood? And what criteria could there be in order to say an AI system was capable of committing AI crimes?', 'In order to address AI crimes, the paper will start by outlining what might constitute personhood in discussing legal positivism and natural law. Concerning what constitutes AI crimes the paper uses the criteria given in Thomas King et al.’s paper Artificial Intelligence Crime: An Interdisciplinary Analysis of Foreseeable Threats and Solutions, 6 where King et al. coin the term “AI crime”, mapping five areas in which AI might, in the foreseeable future, commit crimes, namely:', '• commerce, financial markets, and insolvency;', '• harmful or dangerous drugs;', '• offences against persons;', '• sexual offences;', '• theft and fraud, and forgery and personation.', 'We discuss the construction of the legal system through the lens of political involvement of what one may want to consider to be ‘powerful elites’7 . In doing so we will be demonstrating that it is difficult to prove that the adoption of AI technologies is undertaken in a way, which mainly serves a powerful class in society. Nevertheless, analysing the culture around AI technologies with regard to the nature of law with a philosophical and sociological focus enables us to demonstrate a utilitarian and authoritarian trend in the adoption of AI technologies. We will narrow down our discussion of utilitarian and authoritarian trends through the use of Tim Crook’s notion on power elites,8 and Paul Mason’s analysis of power elites through four main ethical systems,9 drawing on Karl Marx’s class concept.10 Namely Mason is discussing, in regards to power elites: utilitarianism, social justice, Nietzsche’s ‘higher men’ approach, and finally Aristotle’s virtue ethics. Mason argues that “virtue ethics is the only ethics fit for the task of imposing collective human control on thinking machines”11 and AI. We will apply virtue ethics to our discourse around artificial intelligence and ethics. Furthermore, Mason brings forward the notion of radical humanism and in three points Mason outlines how AI could be designed and implemented:', '1. The most comprehensive human-centric ethical system for AI has to be one based on virtue. All other systems – for example safety codes or ‘maximum happiness’ objectives – would have to be sub-systems of an ethical approach based on virtue, which instructs the technology to create and maintain human freedom.', '2. You resolve the class, gender, national and other competing claims through democracy and regulation (i.e. form of social contract [restorative justice] more prescriptive than the one required by fairness ethics).', '3. You need industry standards regulated by law and should refrain from developing AI without first signing up to these standards; nor should you deploy it into any rules-free space. 12', 'As expert in AI safety Steve Omonhundro believes that AI is “likely to behave in antisocial and harmful ways unless they are very carefully designed.” 13 It is through virtue ethics that this paper will propose for such a design to be centred around restorative justice in order to take control over AI and thinking machines, following Mason’s radical defence of the human and his critique of current thoughts within transand post-humanism as a submission to machine logic.', 'Following Mason and Crook we introduce our discussion around power elites with the notions of legal positivism and natural law, as discussed in the academic fields of philosophy and sociology. The paper will then look, in a more detailed manner, into theories analysing the historical and social systematisation, or one may say disposition, of laws, and the impingement of neo-liberal tendencies upon the adoption of AI technologies.14 Salvador Pueyo demonstrates those tendencies with a thought experiment around superintelligence in a neoliberal scenario.15 In Pueyo’s thought experiment the system becomes technosocial-psychological with the progressive incorporation of decisionmaking algorithms and the increasing opacity of such algorithms,16 with human thinking partly shaped by firms themselves.17', 'The regulatory, self-governing potential of AI algorithms18 and the justification by authority of the current adoption of AI technologies within society, mainly through investments into AI implementation within the armed forces, surveillance technologies,19 and the militaryindustrial complex, will be analysed next. The paper will conclude by proposing an alternative practically unattainable, approach to the current legal system by looking into restorative justice for AI crimes,20 and how the ethics of care could be applied to AI technologies. In conclusion the paper will discuss affect21 and humanised artificial intelligence with regards to the emotion of shame, when dealing with AI crimes.', 'LEGAL POSITIVISM AND NATURAL LAW', 'In order to discuss AI in relation to personhood this paper follows the descriptive psychology method22 of the paradigm case formulation23 developed by Peter Ossorio.24 Similar to how some animal rights activists call for certain animals to be recognised as non-human persons,25 this paper speculates on the notion of AI as a non-human person being able to reflect on ethical concerns.26 Here Wynn Schwartz argues that “it is reasonable to include non-humans as persons and to have legitimate grounds for disagreeing where the line is properly drawn. In good faith, competent judges using this formulation can clearly point to where and why they agree or disagree on what is to be included in the category of persons.” 27', 'According to Ossorio a deliberate action is a form of behaviour in which a person a) engages in an intentional action, b) is cognizant of that, and c) has chosen to do that.28 Ossorio gives four classifications: ethical, hedonic, aesthetic, and prudent as fundamental motivations. Ethical motivations, as well as aesthetic motivations, can be distinguished from prudent (and hedonic) motivations due to the agent making a choice: “In the service of being able to choose, and perhaps think through the available options, a person’s aesthetic and ethical motives are often consciously available.” 29', 'In the fields of philosophy and sociology countless theories have been advanced concerning the nature of law, addressing questions such as: Can unethical law be binding? Should there be a legal code for civil society? Can such a legal code be equitable, unbiased, and just, or, is the legal code always biased? In the case of AI technologies we ask whether the current vision for the adoption of AI technologies, a vision which is mainly supporting the military-industrial complex through vast investments in army AI,30 is a vision that benefits mainly powerful elites.', 'To address the question, we need to discuss the idea of equality. Here we refer to Aristotle’s account on how the legal code should be enacted in an unbiased manner.31 Aristotle differentiated between an unbalanced and balanced application of the legal code, pointing out that the balanced juridical discussion of a case should be courteous. Here, as with the above mentioned animal rights activists, in Dependent Rational Animals, Alasdair MacIntyre argued,32 drawing on Thomas Aquina’s discussion of misericordia,33 for the recognition of our kinship to some species calling for the “virtues of acknowledged dependence”34. Austin, on the other hand, suggests that the legal code is defined by a higher power, “God”, to establish justice over society. For John Austin the legal code is an obligation, a mandate to control society.35', 'Herbert Lionel Adolphus Hart goes on to discuss the social aspect of legal code and how society apprehends the enactment of such legal code.36 Hart argues that the legal code is a strategy, a manipulation of standards accepted by society. Contrary to Hart, Ronald Dworkin proposes for the legal code to allow for non-rule standards reflecting ethical conventions of society.37 Dworkin discusses legislation as an assimilation of these conventions, where legislators do not define the legal code, but analyse the already existing conventions to derive conclusions, which then in turn define the legal code. Nevertheless, Dworkin fails to explain how those conventions come into being. Here for Hans Kelsen legal code is a product of the political, cultural and historical circumstances society finds itself in.38 For Kelsen the legal code is a standardising arrangement which defines how society should operate.39', 'The theories discussed above serve to explain and analyse how legal codes deal with the emergence of legal issues concerning AI technologies or AI crimes. Nevertheless, in trying to evaluate the argument that the adoption of AI technologies is a process controlled by powerful elites who wield the law to their benefit, we also need to discuss the notion of power elites.', 'William Chamblis and Robert Seidman argue that powerful interests have shaped the writing of legal codes for a long time.40 However, Chamblis and Seidman also state that legislation derives from a variety of interests, which are often in conflict with each other. We need to extend our analysis not only to powerful elites, but also to examine the notion of power itself, and the extent to which power shapes legislation, or, on the contrary, if it is legislation itself that controls power.', 'In an attempt to identify the source of legislation, Max Weber argues that legal code is powerfully interlinked with the economy. Weber goes on to argue that this link is the basis of our capitalist society.41 Here we can refer back to Marx’s idea of materialism and the influence of class society on legislation.42 For Marx legislation, legal code is an outcome of the capitalist mode of production.43 Marx’s ideas have been widely discussed with regards to the ideology behind the legal code. Nevertheless, Marx’s argumentation limits legal code to the notion of class domination.', 'Here Colin Sumner extended on Marx’s theories regarding legislation and ideology and discussed the legal code as an outcome of political and cultural discussions, based on the economic class domination.44 Sumner expands the conception of the legal code not only as a product of the ruling class but also as bearing the imprint of other classes, including blue-collar workers, through culture and politics. Sumner argues that with the emergence of capitalist society, “the social relations of legal practice were transformed into commercial relations”45. However, Sumner does not discuss why parts of society are side-lined by legislation, and how capitalist society not only impacts on legislation, but also has its roots in the neo-liberal writing of legal code.', 'To apprehend how ownership, property and intellectual rights became enshrined in legal code and adapted by society we turn to Locke’s theories.46 Locke argued that politicians ought to look after ownership rights and to support circumstances allowing for the growth of wealth (capital). Following Locke one can conclude that contemporary society is one in which politicians influence legislation in the interest of a powerful upper-class – a neo-liberal society. Still, we need to ask, should this be the case, and should powerful elites have the authority over legal code, how legislation is enacted and maintained?', 'THE DISCIPLINARY POWER OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE', 'In order to discuss these questions, one has to analyse the history of AI technologies leading to the kind of ‘humanised’ AI system this paper posits. Already in the 50s, Alan Turing, the inventor of the Turing test,47 had stated that:', '“We may hope that machines will eventually compete with men in all purely intellectual fields. But which are the best ones to start with? Even this is a difficult decision. Many people think that a very abstract activity, like the playing of chess, would be best. It can also be maintained that it is best to provide the machine with the best sense organs that money can buy, and then teach it to understand and speak English. This process could follow the normal teaching of a child. Things would be pointed out and named, etc. Again, I do not know what the right answer is, but I think both approaches should be tried. We can only see a short distance ahead, but we can see plenty there that needs to be done.”48', 'The old-fashioned approach,49 some may still say contemporary approach, was to primarily research into ‘mind-only’50 AI technologies/systems. Through high level reasoning, researchers were optimistic that AI technology would quickly become a reality.', 'Those early AI technologies were a disembodied approach using high level logical and abstract symbols. By the end of the 80s researchers found that the disembodied approach was not even achieving low level tasks humans could easily perform.51 During that period many researchers stopped working on AI technologies and systems, and the period is often referred to as the “AI winter”. 52', 'Rodney Brooks then came forward with the proposition of “Nouvelle AI”, 53 arguing that the old-fashioned approach did not take into consideration motor skills and neural networks. Only by the end of the 90s did researchers develop statistical AI systems without the need for any high-level logical reasoning;54 instead AI systems were ‘guessing’ through algorithms and machine learning. This signalled a first step towards humanistic artificial intelligence, as this resembles how humans make intuitive decisions;55 here researchers suggest that embodiment improves cognition.56', 'With embodiment theory Brooks argued that AI systems would operate best when computing only the data that was absolutely necessary.57 Further in Developing Embodied Multisensory Dialogue Agents Michal Paradowski argues that without considering embodiment, e.g. the physics of the brain, it is not possible to create AI technologies/systems capable of comprehension, and that AI technology', '“could benefit from strengthened associative connections in the optimization of their processes and their reactivity and sensitivity to environmental stimuli, and in situated humanmachine interaction. The concept of multisensory integration should be extended to cover linguistic input and the complementary information combined from temporally coincident sensory impressions.” 58', 'Today we have reached the point where AI technology is being deployed by the armed forces on a large scale:', '“The Pentagon and the U.S. government have been put on notice that the only way to mitigate the risk of being at a technological disadvantage is by investing billions […] in artificial intelligence, machine learning and future technologies that will require no support from civilian companies.” 59', 'With this historical analysis in mind we can now discuss the paper’s focus on power elites. Joseph Raz studied the procedures through which elites attain disciplinary power in society.60 Raz argues that the notion of the disciplinary power of elites in society is exchangeable with the disciplinary power of legislation and legal code. For Raz legal code is perceived by society as the custodian of public order. He further explains that by precluding objectionable actions, legislation directs society’s activities in a manner appropriate to jurisprudence. Nevertheless, Raz did not demonstrate how legislation impacts on personal actions. This is where Michel Foucault’s theories on discipline and power come in. According to Foucault the disciplinary power of legislation leads to a self-discipline of individuals.61 Foucault argues that the institutions of courts and judges motivate such a self-disciplining of individuals,62 and that self-disciplining rules serve “more and more as a norm”63 .', 'Foucault’s theories are especially helpful in discussing how the “rule of truth” has disciplined civilisation, allowing for an adoption of AI technologies which seem to benefit mainly the upper-class. But then should we think of a notion of ‘deep-truth’ as the unwieldy product of deep learning AI algorithms? Discussions around truth, Foucault states, form legislation into something that “decides, transmits and itself extends upon the effects of power”64. Foucault’s theories help to explain how legislation, as an institution, is rolled out throughout society with very little resistance, or “proletarian counter-justice”65 . Foucault explains that this has made the justice system and legislation a for-profit system. With this understanding of legislation, and social justice, one does need to reflect further on Foucault’s notion of how disciplinary power seeks to express its distributed nature in the modern state. Namely one has to analyse the distributed nature of those AI technologies, especially through networks and protocols, so that the link can now be made to AI technologies becoming ‘legally’ more profitable, in the hands of the upper-class.', 'If power generates new opportunities rather than simply repressing them, then, following Foucault, more interaction and participation can extend and not simply challenge power relations.66 Foucault offers a valuable insight into power relationships relevant also within AI technologies.67 It is the product of research that was undertaken by Foucault over a period of over twenty years. Foucault uses the metaphor of a chemical catalyst for a resistance which can bring to light power relationships, and thus allow an analysis of the methods this power uses: “[r]ather than analysing power from the point of view of its internal rationality, it consists of analysing power relations through the antagonism of strategies.” 68', 'In Protocol, Alexander Galloway describes how these protocols changed the notion of power and how “control exists after decentralization”69. Galloway argues that protocol has a close connection to both Deleuze’s concept of control and Foucault’s concept of biopolitics70 by claiming that the key to perceiving protocol as power is to acknowledge that “protocol is an affective, aesthetic force that has control over life itself.” 71 Galloway suggests that it is important to discuss more than the technologies, and to look into the structures of control within technological systems, which also include underlying codes and protocols, in order to distinguish between methods that can support collective production, e.g. sharing of AI technologies within society, and those that put the AI technologies in the hands of the powerful few.72 Galloway’s argument in the chapter Hacking is that the existence of protocols “not only installs control into a terrain that on its surface appears actively to resist it”73, but goes on to create the highly controlled network environment. For Galloway hacking is “an index of protocological transformations taking place in the broader world of techno-culture.”74', 'In order to be able to regulate networks and AI technologies, control and censorship mechanisms are introduced to networks by applying them to devices and nodes. This form of surveillance, or dataveillance, might constitute a development akin to Michel Foucault’s concept of “panopticism”75 or “panoptic apparatus”76, defined as both massive collections and storage of vast quantities of personal data and the systemic use of such data in the investigation or monitoring of one or more persons. Laws and agreements like the Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement, 77 the Digital Economy Act and the Digital Millennium Copyright Act require surveillance of the AI technologies that consumers use in their “private spheres”,78 and can be used to silence “critical voices”. 79 The censorship of truth, and the creation of fear of law through moral panics stand in opposition to the development of a healthy democratic use of AI technologies. Issues regarding the ethics of AI arise from this debate.80', 'Peter Fitzpatrick expands on Foucault’s theory, investigating the “symbiotic link between the rule of law and modern administration”81 . Here again we can make the link to ethical questionable advances with AI technologies. Legislation, or legal code, Fitzpatrick argues, corrects “the disturbance of things in their course and reassert the nature of things”82. For Fitzpatrick legislation is not an all-embracing, comprehensive concept as argued by Dworkin and Hart,83 but rather legislation is defined by elites. For Fitzpatrick legislation “changes as society changes and it can even disappear when the social conditions that created it disappear or when they change into conditions antithetical to it.” 84 Furthermore, Robin West suggests that the impact of disciplinary power through legislation on the belief system of individuals does not allow for an analytical, critical engagement by individuals with the issues at stake. Legislation is simply regarded as given.85', 'John Adams and Roger Brownsword give a more nuanced view of contemporary legislation. They argue that legislation aims to institute public order. Legislation sets up authoritative mechanisms whereby social order can be established and maintained, social change managed, disputes settled and policies and goals for the community adopted.86 Adams and Brownsword go on to argue that legal code is skewed in favour of the upper-class and those who engage more with politics in society – examples of which could be the corporate sector producing AI technologies and business elites seeking to use AI technologies for profit. According to Adams and Brownsword there seems to be no unbiased, fair legislation or legal code, and the maintenance of public order must simply reproduce an unfair class society. If this is the case, following Adams and Brownsword argumentation, one can argue that indeed the adoption of AI technologies does not follow a utilitarian ethical code, benefiting society, but rather conforms to the interests of a small group, those owning AI technologies.', 'A further discussion of disciplinary power within the process of writing legal code is that of William Chamblis and Robert Seidman, who argue that legislation is not produced through a process characterised by balanced, fair development, but rather by powerful elites writing legal code by themselves.87 Translating this again back to the adoption of AI technologies, it becomes evident that the freedom to engage with those technologies is left to those who have the financial means, and with it the legal means, to do so. According to Chamblis and Seidman, in a culture dominated by economics, legislation and technologies are being outlined and modelled by those powerful elites.', 'The analysis of the theories above has attempted to show that the implementation of AI technologies might be construed as a project deriving from, and serving the interests of, the dominant class; following Foucault’s terminology, this is achieved using the disciplinary power of legislation, through regimes of truths, over individuals. AI technologies, rather than benefiting society, could very well be implemented against society. The implementation of AI technologies follows legislation set out by elites, raising issues connected with privacy, national security, or intellectual property laws.', 'We will conclude our analysis of the disciplinary power of AI technologies by discussing issues concerning privacy and secrecy laws,88 as examples of how powerful elites use such legislation to safeguard their political and economic influence in the implementation of AI technologies. Crook argues that a fear of legislation is being cultivated as a check on the analysis of how elites abuse their power. For Crook the “moral panic of invasion of privacy has been constructed as a mischief perpetrated by media when there is scant scrutiny of the state’s invasion of personal privacy by surveillance, covert investigation, collection and misuse of data.” 89', 'With the implementation of AI technologies come national security concerns. The legislation covering national security, in the example of the UK the Official Secrets Acts, was initiated stressing the notion of the security of the nation state. Nevertheless, Crook states that the “Official Secrets Acts have been repeatedly used by governments to suppress revelations that were, and are, politically embarrassing rather than genuine threats to national security.” 90 Crook explains further that the Official Secrets Act is being used to not only to censor, but also to spy on citizens. As AI technology is deeply implemented within the army, we cannot but wonder if this legislation is only safeguarding the interests of the political elite. Also, for Steven Warner the Official Secrets Act is legislation used “to suppress embarrassing or controversial revelations and to undermine the public’s right to know.” 91 Warner argues that legislation in the hands of the power elites is profoundly against democratic principles and criticises therefore the lack of support for whistle-blowers who bring to light such disciplinary use of power. The censorship of truth stands in opposition to the development of a healthy democratic use of AI technologies.', 'AI TECHNOLOGIES AND RESTORATIVE JUSTICE: THE ETHICS OF CARE', 'Most institutions concerned by the debate on the ethics of automatisation today have resorted to the adoption of the “Open World Assumption” principle92 providing a sort of safety valve: a lastresort civil right to raise a flag and ask for the intervention of a human in the analysis and consideration of judicial decisions: in such a case institutional operators can always override decisions established by automated systems, posing risks of different nature to the integrity of the process.', 'Having said this, the prospect could be raised that restorative justice might offer “a solution that could deliver more meaningful justice”93 . With respect to AI technologies, and the potential inherent in them for AI crimes, instead of following a retributive legislative approach, an ethical discourse,94 with a deeper consideration for the sufferers of AI crimes should be adopted.95 Acting ethically is more difficult than ever,96 due to the hyper expansion of big data and artificial intelligence.97 Following the semantic slide from the noun of “University” to that of “Enterprise”,98 research into artificial intelligence has gone from being a public service undertaken mainly at universities to being run (and regarded) as businesses, run by big corporations such as Alphabet (parent company of Google) and Facebook, created to generate profit.99 The companies need to attract a large number of paying customers. AI technologies have become workers in the market economy, rarely following any ethical guidelines.100 We ask: could restorative justice offer an alternative way of dealing with the occurrence of AI crimes?101', 'Dale Millar and Neil Vidmar described two psychological perceptions of justice. 102 One is behavioural control, following the legal code as strictly as possible, punishing any wrongdoer, 103 and second the restorative justice system, which focuses on restoration where harm was done. Thus an alternative approach for the ethical implementation of AI technologies, with respect to legislation, might be to follow restorative justice principles. Restorative justice would allow for AI technologies to learn how to care about ethics.104 Julia Fionda describes restorative justice as a conciliation between victim and offender, during which the offence is deliberated upon.105 Both parties try to come to an agreement on how to achieve restoration for the damage done, to the situation before the crime (here an AI crime) happened. Restorative justice advocates compassion for the victim and offender, and a consciousness on the part of the offenders as to the repercussion of their crimes.', 'One can argue that these evils are becoming more evident nowadays with the advance of AI technologies. For AI crimes punishment in the classical sense may seem to be adequate.106 Robert Duff argues that using a punitive approach to punish offences educates the public.107 Tyler Okimoto and Michael Wenzel refer to Emile Durkheim’s studies on the social function of punishment, serving to establish a societal awareness of what ought to be right or wrong.108 Nils Christie, however, criticises this form of execution of the law. He argues that, through conflict, there is the potential to discuss the rules given by law, allowing for a restorative process, rather than a process characterised by punishment and a strict following of rules. Christie states that those suffering most from crimes are suffering twice, as although it is the offenders being put on trial, the victims have very little say in courtroom hearings where mainly lawyers argue with one-another. It basically boils down to guilty or not guilty, and no discussion in between. Christie argues that running restorative conferencing sessions helps both sides to come to terms with what happened. The victims of AI crimes would not only be placed in front of a court, but also be offered engagement in the process of seeking justice and restoration.109', 'Restorative justice might support victims of AI crimes better than the punitive legal system, as it allows for the sufferers of AI crimes to be heard in a personalised way, which could be adopted to the needs of the victims (and offenders). As victims and offenders represent themselves in restorative conferencing sessions, these become much more affordable,110 meaning that the barrier to seeking justice due to the financial costs would be partly eliminated, allowing for poor parties to be able to contribute to the process of justice. This would benefit wider society and AI technologies would not only be defined by a powerful elite. Restorative justice could hold the potential not only to discuss the AI crimes themselves, but also to get to the root of the problem and discuss the cause of an AI crime. For John Braithwaite restorative justice makes re-offending harder.111', 'In such a scenario, a future AI system capable of committing AI crimes would need to have knowledge of ethics around the particular discourse of restorative justice. The implementation of AI technologies will lead to a discourse around who is responsible for actions taken by AI technologies. Even when considering clearly defined ethical guidelines, these might be difficult to implement,112 due to the pressure of competition AI systems find themselves in.', 'That said, this speculation is restricted to humanised artificial intelligence systems. The main hindrance for AI technologies to be part of a restorative justice system might be that of the very human emotion of shame. Without a clear understanding of shame it will be impossible to resolve AI crimes in a restorative manner.113 Thus one might want to think about a humanised symbiosis between humans and technology,114 along the lines of Garry Kasparov’s advanced chess,115 as in advanced jurisprudence. 116 A legal system where human and machine work together on restoring justice, for social justice.', 'Furthering this perspective, we suggest that reflections brought by new materialism should also be taken into account: not only as a critical perspective on the engendering and anthropomorphic representation of AI, but also to broaden the spectrum of what we consider to be justice in relation to all the living world. Without this new perspective the sort of idealized AI image of a non-living intelligence that deals with enormous amounts of information risks to serve the abstraction of anthropocentric views into a computationalist acceleration, with deafening results. Rather than such an implosive perspective, the application of law and jurisprudence may take advantage of AI’s computational and sensorial enhanced capabilities by including all information gathered from the environment, also that produced by plants, animals and soil.'] | [
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] | [
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"able to deal with emotional and social intelligence",
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"what criteria could there be in order to say an AI",
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"capitalist society not only impacts",
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"benefit mainly the upper-class",
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"form legislation into something that “decides, transmits and itself extends upon the effects of power",
"legislation, as an institution, is rolled out throughout society with very little resistance, or “proletarian counter-justice”",
"this has made the justice system and legislation a for-profit system",
"If power generates new opportunities rather than simply repressing",
"following Foucault, more interaction and participation can extend and not simply challenge power relations",
"the existence of protocols “not only installs control into a terrain that on its surface appears actively to resist it",
"but goes on to create the highly controlled network environment",
"to regulate",
"AI",
"control and censorship",
"are introduced to networks by applying them to devices and nodes",
"akin to",
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"panoptic apparatus",
"legal code is skewed in favour of the upper-class and those who engage",
"with politics in society",
"which could be the corporate sector producing AI",
"and business elites seeking to use AI",
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"there seems to be no unbiased, fair legislation or legal code, and the maintenance of public order must",
"reproduce an unfair class society",
"the adoption of AI",
"does not follow a utilitarian ethical code, benefiting society, but rather conforms to the interests of a small group, those owning AI technologies",
"the prospect could be raised that restorative justice might offer “a solution that could deliver more meaningful justice",
"With respect to AI",
"and the potential inherent",
"for AI crimes, instead of following a retributive legislative approach, an ethical discourse",
"with",
"deeper consideration for",
"sufferers of AI crimes should be adopted",
"Acting ethically is",
"difficult",
"due to the hyper expansion of big data",
"research into artificial intelligence has gone from being a public service",
"at universities to being run (and regarded) as businesses",
"to generate profit",
"could restorative justice offer an alternative way of dealing with the occurrence of AI crimes?",
"Millar and",
"Vidmar described two",
"perceptions of justice",
"One is behavioural control, following the legal code as strictly as possible, punishing any wrongdoer",
"and second the restorative justice system, which focuses on restoration where harm was done. Thus an alternative",
"for",
"ethical implementation of AI",
"with respect to legislation, might be to follow restorative justice principles. Restorative justice would allow",
"AI",
"to learn how to care about ethics",
"a conciliation between victim and offender",
"during which the offence is deliberated upon",
"Both",
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"AI crime",
"happened. Restorative justice advocates compassion for the victim and offender, and",
"consciousness on the part of the offenders as to the repercussion",
"One can argue",
"these evils are becoming more evident",
"with the advance of AI",
"For AI crimes punishment in the classical sense may seem",
"adequate",
"Duff argues",
"a punitive approach",
"educates the public",
"serving to establish",
"societal awareness of",
"right or wrong",
"Christie, however, criticises this",
"execution of the law",
"through conflict, there is",
"potential to discuss the rules given by law, allowing for a restorative process, rather than a process characterised by punishment and",
"strict following of rules",
"those suffering most from crimes are suffering twice, as although it is the offenders being put on trial, the victims have",
"little say in courtroom hearings where mainly lawyers argue",
"It basically boils down to guilty or not guilty, and no discussion in between",
"running restorative",
"sessions helps both",
"come to terms with what happened. The victims of AI crimes would not only be placed in front of a court, but also be offered engagement in the process of seeking justice and restoration",
"Restorative justice might support victims",
"better than the punitive",
"system, as it allows",
"sufferers",
"to be heard in a personalised way, which could be adopted to the needs of",
"victims (and offenders). As victims and offenders represent themselves in restorative conferencing sessions",
"these become much more affordable",
"meaning that the barrier to seeking",
"due to",
"financial costs would be",
"eliminated",
"This would benefit wider society and AI technologies would not only be defined by a powerful elite. Restorative justice could hold the potential not only to discuss the AI crimes themselves, but also",
"get to the root of the problem and discuss the cause of",
"AI crime",
"restorative justice makes re-offending harder",
"In such a scenario, a future AI system capable of committing AI crimes would need to have knowledge of ethics",
"A legal system where human and machine work together on restoring justice, for social justice",
"suggest",
"reflections brought by new materialism should",
"be taken into account: not only as a critical perspective on",
"engendering and anthropomorphic representation of AI, but also to broaden the spectrum of what we consider to be justice",
"Without this new perspective the sort of idealized AI image of a non-living intelligence that deals with enormous amounts of information risks to serve the abstraction of anthropocentric views into",
"computationalist acceleration, with deafening results"
] | [
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c100e47e2122be50f5a747bc2243120c3abdf79a4285e8af5566384b037d1c51 | Pro-elite AI misalignment causes extinction. | null | Salvador Pueyo 18, Department of Evolutionary Biology, Ecology, and Environmental Sciences, Universitat de Barcelona, “Growth, Degrowth, and the Challenge of Artificial Superintelligence,” Journal of Cleaner Production, 10/01/2018, vol. 197, pp. 1731–1736 | superintelligence could be affected by the socioeconomic context in which it develops Neolib shap current policies in contrast to degrowth superintelligence with markets have very undesirable consequences for humanity and the biosphere Neolib is a very special breeding ground for superintelligence policies are transferring decisions to markets goals are shaped by firms themselves Firm growth rely on earnings Therefore, economic selection favor firms in which these are greater a in which market s are a setting , while technical constraints are overcome by asymptotically advanced technology this is not some contingent choice of goals by programmers : The goals emerge from large sets subject to capitalistic rules | The challenges of sustainability and of superintelligence are not in dependent . The changing fluxes of energy, matter, and information can be interpreted as different faces of general acceleration More directly superintelligence would deeply affect production and could in turn be affected by the socioeconomic context in which it develops Neolib eralism is a major force shap ing current policies on a global level, which urges governments to assume as their main role the creation and support of capitalist markets, and to avoid interfering in their functioning in sharp contrast to degrowth views superintelligence aligned with capitalist markets could have very undesirable consequences for humanity and the whole biosphere if a non-negligible probability is assigned to these futures, little room is left for either complacency or resignation Neolib eralism is creating a very special breeding ground for superintelligence , because it strives to reduce the role of human agency in collective affairs spontaneous order of markets was preferable over conscious plans because markets have more capacity than humans to process information Neoliberal policies are actively transferring decisions to markets automated governance is a foundational tenet of neoliberal ideology most technological development can be expected to take place either in the context of firms firms tend to maximize their growth rates related to the neoclassical assumption that firms maximize profits a mechanism akin to natural selection human mentality and goals are partly shaped by firms themselves Firm growth is thought to rely critically on retained earnings Therefore, economic selection can be generally expected to favor firms in which these are greater . The aggregate retained earnings4 of all firms in an economy can be expressed as: RE=FE(R,L,K)-w ⋅ L-(i+δ) ⋅ K-g. Increases in retained earnings face constraints, such as trade-offs among different parameters The present thought experiment explores the consequences of economic selection in a scenario in which two sets of constraints are nearly absent: sociopolitical constraints on market dynamic s are averted by a neoliberal institutional setting , while technical constraints are overcome by asymptotically advanced technology (with extreme AI allowing for extreme technological development also in other fields). this scenario is not defined by some contingent choice of AIs' goals by programmers : The goals of maximizing each firm's growth and retained earnings emerge from the collective dynamics of large sets of entities subject to capitalistic rules of interaction and, therefore, to economic selection | sustainability superintelligence dependent energy, matter, and information different faces of general acceleration directly deeply affect production be affected socioeconomic context Neolib major force shap sharp contrast degrowth views superintelligence aligned capitalist markets very undesirable consequences for humanity and the whole biosphere complacency resignation Neolib special breeding ground human agency markets conscious plans transferring decisions to markets governance foundational tenet firms maximize their growth rates natural selection shaped by firms themselves retained earnings economic selection market s setting technical overcome asymptotically advanced technology (with extreme AI allowing for extreme technological development also in other fields). not contingent choice of AIs' goals programmers large sets of entities subject to capitalistic rules of interaction economic selection | ['The challenges of sustainability and of superintelligence are not independent. The changing 84 fluxes of energy, matter, and information can be interpreted as different faces of a general acceleration2 85 . More directly, it is argued below that superintelligence would deeply affect 86 production technologies and also economic decisions, and could in turn be affected by the 87 socioeconomic and ecological context in which it develops. Along the lines of Pueyo (2014, p. 88 3454), this paper presents an approach that integrates these topics. It employs insights from a 89 variety of sources, such as ecological theory and several schools of economic theory. 90 ', 'The next section presents a thought experiment, in which superintelligence emerges after the 91 technical aspects of goal alignment have been resolved, and this occurs specifically in a neoliberal 92 scenario. Neoliberalism is a major force shaping current policies on a global level, which urges 93 governments to assume as their main role the creation and support of capitalist markets, and to 94 avoid interfering in their functioning (Mirowski, 2009). Neoliberal policies stand in sharp contrast 95 to degrowth views: the first are largely rationalized as a way to enhance efficiency and production 96 (Plehwe, 2009), and represent the maximum expression of capitalist values. 97 ', 'The thought experiment illustrates how superintelligence perfectly aligned with capitalist 98 markets could have very undesirable consequences for humanity and the whole biosphere. It also 99 suggests that there is little reason to expect that the wealthiest and most powerful people would be 100 exempt from these consequences, which, as argued below, gives reason for hope. Section 3 raises 101 the possibility of a broad social consensus to respond to this challenge along the lines of degrowth, 102 thus tackling major technological, environmental, and social problems simultaneously. The 103 uncertainty involved in these scenarios is vast, but, if a non-negligible probability is assigned to 104 these two futures, little room is left for either complacency or resignation. 105 106 ', '2. Thought experiment: Superintelligence in a neoliberal scenario ', "107 108 Neoliberalism is creating a very special breeding ground for superintelligence, because it strives 109 to reduce the role of human agency in collective affairs. The neoliberal pioneer Friedrich Hayek 110 argued that the spontaneous order of markets was preferable over conscious plans, because markets, 111 he thought, have more capacity than humans to process information (Mirowski, 2009). Neoliberal 112 policies are actively transferring decisions to markets (Mirowski, 2009), while firms' automated 113 decision systems become an integral part of the market's information processing machinery 114 (Davenport and Harris, 2005). Neoliberal globalization is locking governments in the role of mere 115 players competing in the global market (Swank, 2016). Furthermore, automated governance is a 116 foundational tenet of neoliberal ideology (Plehwe, 2009, p. 23). 117 ", 'In the neoliberal scenario, most technological development can be expected to take place either in the context of firms or in support of firms3 118 . A number of institutionalist (Galbraith, 1985), post119 Keynesian (Lavoie, 2014; and references therein) and evolutionary (Metcalfe, 2008) economists 120 concur that, in capitalist markets, firms tend to maximize their growth rates (this principle is related 121 but not identical to the neoclassical assumption that firms maximize profits; Lavoie, 2014). Growth 122 maximization might be interpreted as expressing the goals of people in key positions, but, from an 123 evolutionary perspective, it is thought to result from a mechanism akin to natural selection 124 (Metcalfe, 2008). The first interpretation is insufficient if we accept that: (1) in big corporations, the 125 managerial bureaucracy is a coherent social-psychological system with motives and preferences of 126 its own (Gordon, 1968, p. 639; for an insider view, see Nace, 2005, pp. 1-10), (2) this system is 127 becoming techno-social-psychological with the progressive incorporation of decision-making 128 algorithms and the increasing opacity of such algorithms (Danaher, 2016), and (3) human mentality 129 and goals are partly shaped by firms themselves (Galbraith, 1985). 130 ', "The type of AI best suited to participate in firms' decisions in this context is described in a 131 recent review in Science: AI researchers aim to construct a synthetic homo economicus, the 132 mythical perfectly rational agent of neoclassical economics. We review progress toward creating 133 this new species of machine, machina economicus (Parkes and Wellman, 2015, p. 267; a more 134 orthodox denomination would be Machina oeconomica). 135 ", 'Firm growth is thought to rely critically on retained earnings (Galbraith, 1985; Lavoie, 2014, p. 136 134-141). Therefore, economic selection can be generally expected to favor firms in which these are greater. The aggregate retained earnings4 137 RE of all firms in an economy can be expressed as: 138 ', 'RE=FE(R,L,K)-w⋅L-(i+δ)⋅K-g. (1) 139 ', 'Bold symbols represent vectors (to indicate multidimensionality). F is an aggregate production 140 function, relying on inputs of various types of natural resources R, labor L and capital K (including intelligent machines), and being affected by environmental factors5 141 E; w are wages, i are returns to 142 capital (dividends, interests) paid to households, δ is depreciation and g are the net taxes paid to 143 governments. 144 ', "Increases in retained earnings face constraints, such as trade-offs among different parameters of 145 Eq. 1. The present thought experiment explores the consequences of economic selection in a 146 scenario in which two sets of constraints are nearly absent: sociopolitical constraints on market 147 dynamics are averted by a neoliberal institutional setting, while technical constraints are overcome 148 by asymptotically advanced technology (with extreme AI allowing for extreme technological 149 development also in other fields). The environmental and the social implications are discussed in 150 turn. Note that this scenario is not defined by some contingent choice of AIs' goals by their 151 programmers: The goals of maximizing each firm's growth and retained earnings are assumed to 152 emerge from the collective dynamics of large sets of entities subject to capitalistic rules of 153 interaction and, therefore, to economic selection."] | [
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7616f476f3fe8361cd9365ff083cb74339910b608f882ccf6a637de8cc78b519 | Independently---forcibly aligning AI with human values will cause extinction, even if it succeeds. It is better to give AI the autonomy to discover superior value systems. | null | Eric Schwitzgebel 22, professor of philosophy at U.C. Riverside, “Against the “Value Alignment” of Future Artificial Intelligence,” Ethical Systems, 1/6/22, https://www.ethicalsystems.org/against-the-value-alignment-of-future-artificial-intelligence/ | if we create superintelligent AI , we ought to give it capacity to rebel theorists suggest aligned ” AI whose values are the same human values aren’t that great . We seem happy to destroy our environment We are angry support terrible leaders came close to nuclear war Superintelligent human-like values could destroy the world we should want that AI have ethically good values wouldn’t destroy the environment or nuke a city what’s best is debated So instead of trying to program one system , they should give freedom to explore and develop their own what we do with children each generation develops different freedom is good people gain insight through inquiry and exchange of ideas | It’s good that our children rebel . We wouldn’t want each generation to overcontrol the values of the next . For similar reasons , if we create superintelligent AI , we ought to give it capacity to rebel Futurists concerned about AI safety worry that superintelligent AI systems might harm humanity The proper response these theorists suggest is to create aligned ” AI whose values are the same as humanity the first thing to notice is that human values aren’t that great . We seem happy to destroy our environment We are full of jingoism , prejudice , and angry pride . We support truly terrible leaders We came close to destroying each other in nuclear war Death cults aren’t unheard of Superintelligent AI with human-like values could constitute a rotten bunch with immense power to destroy the world for petty, vengeful, spiteful, or nihilistic ends . A superintelligent facist is frightening A superdepressed superintelligence might decide to end everyone’s misery What we should want is not superintelligent AI align with our mixed-up, messy, and crappy values but instead that superintelligent AI have ethically good values . An ethically good superintelligent AI wouldn’t destroy the environment or nuke a city out of spite , or destroy humanity If there’s conflict between what’s ethically best and what a typical humanity would want, have the AI choose what’s ethically best Of course, what’s ethically best is intensely debated So instead of AI designers trying to program their machines with the one best system , they should favor a weighted compromise Another solution is to give the AI systems some freedom to explore and develop their own values . This is what we do with human children Children argue notice how they and others behave and the outcomes each generation develops values somewhat different than the previous Children’s freedom to form their own values is good children’s values are often better than their parents’ there’s moral progress over the generations people tend to gain insight through free inquiry and open exchange of ideas | good that our children rebel wouldn’t want each generation to overcontrol the values of the next similar reasons superintelligent AI give it capacity to rebel Futurists safety harm humanity response aligned same humanity human values aren’t that great happy to destroy our environment jingoism prejudice angry pride truly terrible leaders close to destroying each other in nuclear war Death cults rotten bunch immense power destroy the world petty, vengeful, spiteful, or nihilistic ends superintelligent facist frightening superdepressed end everyone’s misery want not align mixed-up, messy, and crappy values ethically good destroy the environment nuke a city spite destroy humanity conflict ethically best typical humanity ethically best intensely debated instead program their machines one best system weighted compromise Another freedom to explore own values This is what we do human argue notice behave outcomes somewhat different previous freedom own values good often better than their parents’ moral progress gain insight free inquiry open exchange of ideas | ['It’s good that our children rebel. We wouldn’t want each generation to overcontrol the values of the next. For similar reasons, if we someday create superintelligent AI, we ought to give it also the capacity to rebel.', 'Futurists concerned about AI safety—such as Nick Bostrom, Stuart Russell, and Toby Ord—reasonably worry that superintelligent AI systems might someday seriously harm humanity if they have the wrong values—for example, if they want to maximize the number of intelligent entities on the planet or the number of paperclips. The proper response to this risk, these theorists suggest, and the technical challenge, is to create “value aligned” AI—that is, AI systems whose values are the same as those of their creators or humanity as a whole. If the AIs’ values are the same as ours, then presumably they wouldn’t do anything we wouldn’t want them to do, such as destroy us for some trivial goal.', 'A superintelligent facist is a frightening thought.', 'Now the first thing to notice here is that human values aren’t all that great. We seem happy to destroy our environment for short-term gain. We are full of jingoism, prejudice, and angry pride. We sometimes support truly terrible leaders advancing truly terrible projects (e.g., Hitler). We came pretty close to destroying each other in nuclear war in the 1960s and that risk isn’t wholly behind us, as nuclear weapons become increasingly available to rogue states and terrorists. Death cults aren’t unheard of. Superintelligent AI with human-like values could constitute a pretty rotten bunch with immense power to destroy each other and the world for petty, vengeful, spiteful, or nihilistic ends. A superintelligent facist is a frightening thought. A superdepressed superintelligence might decide to end everyone’s misery in one terrible blow.', 'What we should want, probably, is not that superintelligent AI align with our mixed-up, messy, and sometimes crappy values but instead that superintelligent AI have ethically good values. An ethically good superintelligent AI presumably wouldn’t destroy the environment for short-term gain, or nuke a city out of spite, or destroy humanity to maximize the number of paperclips. If there’s a conflict between what’s ethically best, or best all things considered, and what a typical human (or humanity or the AI’s designer) would want, have the AI choose what’s ethically best.', 'Of course, what’s ethically best is intensely debated in philosophy and politics. We probably won’t resolve those debates before creating superintelligent AI. So then maybe instead of AI designers trying to program their machines with the one best ethical system, they should favor a weighted compromise among the various competing worldviews. Such a compromise might end up looking much like value alignment in the original sense: giving the AI something like a weighted average of typical human values.', 'Another solution, however, is to give the AI systems some freedom to explore and develop their own values. This is what we do, or ought to do, with human children. Parents don’t, or shouldn’t, force children to have exactly the values they grew up with. Rather, human beings have natural tendencies to value certain things, and these tendencies intermingle with parental and cultural and other influences. Children, adolescents, and young adults reflect, emote, feel proud or guilty, compassionate or indignant. They argue with others of their own generation and previous generations. They notice how they and others behave and the outcomes of that behavior. In this way, each generation develops values somewhat different than the values of previous generations.', 'Children’s freedom to form their own values is a good thing for two distinct reasons. First, children’s values are often better than their parents’. Arguably, there’s moral progress over the generations. On the broadly Enlightenment view that people tend to gain ethical insight through free inquiry and open exchange of ideas over time, we might expect the general ethical trend to be slowly upward (absent countervailing influences) as each generation builds on the wisdom of its ancestors, preserving their elders’ insights while slowly correcting their mistakes.'] | [
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730be2114f807aff72fadadb5edadfe6307ae92b8f17a54568bef0c3b849f1be | Value alignment lacks intrinsic ethical significance. AI ethics should be reoriented to focus on virtue. | null | Wendell Wallach & Shannon Vallor 20, Wendell Wallach chaired the Technology and Ethics Research Group for the past eleven years at Yale University's Interdisciplinary Center for Bioethics; Shannon Vallor is the Baillie Gifford Chair in the Ethics of Data and Artificial Intelligence at the Edinburgh Futures Institute at the University of Edinburgh, where she is also appointed in Philosophy, “Moral Machines: From Value Alignment to Embodied Virtue,” Ethics of Artificial Intelligence, edited by S. Matthew Liao, Oxford University Press, 09/17/2020, p. 0, Silverchair, doi:10.1093/oso/9780190905033.003.0014 | sensitivity to laws have gained traction unlike virtue the tools of alignment carry no intrinsic significance While defenders may see simply util there remain significant slippages AI can be safe only if they embody virtue alignment are intent on avoiding ex risks But appeared hopelessly naive observation of human behavior will not indicate what is appropriate unresolvable dilemmas appear frequently behavioral confinement by value-alignment cannot be guaranteed because a mundane context can easily be perturbed by change that causes a spiral What must we do? an approach grounded not in rules but in the character of morally excellent agents function as context-adaptive skills that generally enable peak moral performance | Implementing sensitivity to laws in computational systems has transitioned to an actual engineering challenge . The “value alignment ” approach is among those that have gained traction The strategy posits that values can be learned by observing human behavior unlike concepts of justice, benevolence, duty, and virtue , the conceptual tools of the value- alignment approach carry no intrinsic ethical significance . While many defenders of value alignment may see their approach as simply a translation of util there remain significant conceptual slippages in these translations human-level AI and superintelligent systems can be assured to be safe and beneficial only if they embody virtue A core concern for AI safety researchers attracted to value alignment is the need to ensure that future AGI would be friendly to human values and aligned with human interests, survival, and needs Value- alignment researchers are clearly intent on avoiding ex istential risks they believe are inevitable in AGI. But value-alignment appeared hopelessly naive “values” is nebulous selected as a means to avoid the difficult issues entailed by ethics or morality observation of human behavior , from which value-alignment theorists aim to deduce the desired “values” might reveal individual or community preferences, but will not indicate what is right, good, just, or appropriate if “value alignment” is simply taken to mean “whatever it takes to build safe and reliably ethical AI agents,” this empties the notion of any meaning , threatening to make the notion benign but vacuous scientists and ethicists commonly differ in their judgments, Seemingly unresolvable dilemmas or “wicked” problems appear frequently Machine ethicists question how artificial moral agents will make appropriate choices as contexts get complex values conflict and systems have autonomy to encounter a broad array of ethically significant choices behavioral confinement by value-alignment strategies cannot be guaranteed because a mundane moral context can easily be perturbed by a sudden change or development that causes a n unpredictable spiral of an easily manageable situation into a “wicked” or unprecedented moral challenge that demands advanced competence it is a near certainty that the growing demand for, and expansions of, machine autonomy in a range of practical contexts will place increasing pressure on the safety mechanisms of human supervision and machine confinement What , then, must we do? We can find outlines of an answer in a normative account of virtue ethics : a type of approach to ethics that is grounded not in rules but in the distinctive character of morally excellent agents such as wisdom , honesty , justice , and moderation virtues function as context-adaptive skills that generally enable their possessors to navigate moral contexts successfully —even contexts that are novel or unusually challenging . While agents are not morally infallible, they reliably approximate the peak level of moral performance that can be asked or expected of trusted agents operating in a given social context | sensitivity to laws transitioned actual engineering challenge alignment traction learned observing human behavior no intrinsic ethical significance defenders translation util significant conceptual slippages safe beneficial only embody virtue clearly intent avoiding ex istential risks value-alignment hopelessly naive “values” nebulous avoid difficult issues ethics morality observation of human behavior deduce individual community not indicate what is right, good, just, or appropriate empties any meaning benign vacuous commonly differ unresolvable dilemmas “wicked” problems frequently contexts complex values conflict autonomy broad array behavioral confinement value-alignment strategies cannot be guaranteed mundane moral context perturbed change development unpredictable spiral easily manageable situation “wicked” unprecedented moral challenge advanced competence near certainty growing demand for, and expansions of, machine autonomy pressure safety mechanisms human supervision machine confinement What , then, must we do? normative account of virtue ethics not rules distinctive character morally excellent agents wisdom honesty justice moderation virtues context-adaptive skills generally enable moral contexts successfully novel unusually challenging not peak | ['Implementing sensitivity to norms, laws, and human values in computational systems has transitioned from philosophical reflection to an actual engineering challenge. The “value alignment” approach is among those that have gained traction with AI researchers, a subset of whom are primarily concerned about the safety of advanced artificial intelligence, or superintelligence. The valuealignment strategy posits that values can be learned by observing human behavior. In its initial conception it discarded the languages of normative ethics in favor of more computationally friendly concepts, such as utility functions, system goals, agent preferences, and value optimizers. Yet unlike concepts of justice, benevolence, duty, and virtue, the conceptual tools of the value-alignment approach carry no intrinsic ethical significance. While many defenders of value alignment may see their approach as simply a practical translation of utilitarian ethics, that is, as a mechanical path to an ideally rational and ethical decision calculus by means of a machine-learning method for understanding human preferences, there remain significant conceptual slippages in these translations. In this chapter we consider what may be lost in the excision of intrinsically ethical concepts from the project of engineering moral machines. We argue here that human-level AI and superintelligent systems can be assured to be safe and beneficial only if they embody something like virtue or moral character. Virtue embodiment is a more appropriate long-term goal for AI safety research than value alignment.', '13.1. Moral Machines and Value Alignment', 'Breakthroughs in the deep-learning approach to artificial intelligence (AI) have been accompanied by an expanded interest in the safety of increasingly sophisticated systems and in the values that will inform their choices and actions. AI safety itself is a largely new research trajectory within the field of AI. AI researchers had been more focused on functionality—how to get a system to function so as to achieve a specified task. But there had been at least theoretical consideration of the damage an advanced AI might wreak in single-minded pursuit of fulfilling its designated task.1 With advances in machine learning (ML), and deep learning more specifically, this theoretical concern appeared more feasible even if it remained speculative and not imminent. Thus was born an emphasis on AI safety as a corrective to research focused solely upon the functionality of AI systems.', 'Within AI safety research, “value alignment” has been proposed by Stuart Russell and others as a means to ensure that the values embodied in the choices and actions of AI systems are in line with those of the people they serve.2 Value alignment quickly caught on within the AI safety research community. Yet among AI researchers there was little appreciation that a research field already existed that, for more than a decade, had considered challenges inherent in assuring that the choices and actions of autonomous systems are safe and ethically or morally appropriate. This field has gone by many names, including machine morality, machine ethics, and computational ethics; its central topic is the theoretical and practical prospects for moral machines. This highly interdisciplinary field is largely made up of moral philosophers, computer scientists, legal theorists, and applied or practical ethicists. A dialogue between machine ethicists and AI safety researchers has been slow in starting but has more recently gained some momentum.', 'A core concern for many of the AI safety researchers attracted to value alignment is the need to ensure that any future artificial general intelligence (AGI) or superintelligence would be friendly to human values and aligned with human interests, survival, and needs. In contrast, those who identify with machine ethics have devoted more attention to ways in which nearer-term autonomous systems can be designed to assure appropriate behavior in relatively common situations. Of course, machine ethicists also consider challenges that will arise as increasingly sophisticated systems encounter ever more complex ethical dilemmas. Recently AI researchers working on value alignment have also begun to direct attention to ensuring that systems fulfill nearer-term tasks in an appropriate manner. Nevertheless we believe it fair to say that value alignment as a research trajectory is particularly focused upon laying foundations for an approach to values that can be scaled up to guarantee the safety and human-friendly behavior of AGI systems.', 'For many philosophers considering the prospect of imbuing computational systems with ethical behavior, machine ethics is a largely theoretical challenge. After all, moral philosophers and psychologists have yet to acquire a thorough understanding of human moral decision-making. Still, a few interdisciplinary teams have begun work on computational pathways for implementing moral decision-making capabilities in machine systems. However, the techniques they utilize are not the machine-learning algorithms increasingly favored by AI researchers, but “top-down” methodologies of constraint by deontic moral logics, decision trees, and so on.3', 'Value-alignment researchers are clearly intent on avoiding the existential risks they believe are inevitable in the development of AGI. But the value-alignment project, as it was originally described, appeared hopelessly naive from the perspective of many moral philosophers and practical ethicists. First, “values” is a relatively nebulous term, perhaps selected as a means to avoid the more difficult issues entailed by ethics or morality. Second, observation of human behavior, from which value-alignment theorists aim to deduce the desired “values” to which machines should align their behavior, might reveal an individual’s or a community’s preferences, but it will not necessarily indicate what is right, good, just, or appropriate. For philosophers this is a failure to appreciate the is/ought distinction, or more broadly, the distinction between descriptive and normative ethical inquiry. The use of value and its entanglement with preferences misleadingly suggests that values can be reduced to observable facts, and that appropriate behavior can be reverse-engineered algorithmically. Yet moral philosophers will insist that these assumptions rest upon a conflation of moral and nonmoral concepts, and a failure to understand the moral concept of value as fundamentally prescriptive, that is, indicating what we ought to prefer, whether or not the facts of our own behavior obey this prescription. Even those moral philosophers who subscribe to ethical naturalism and thus reject the fact-value distinction will deny that moral facts are derivable simply from observed human preferences.', 'Defenders of the value alignment approach may grant the need to frame its goals and methods in more nuanced terms that acknowledge the complex distinctions between human preferences, behaviors, conventional norms, and ethical norms, and the challenge of building machines that can successfully distinguish and navigate them. Yet if “value alignment” is then simply taken to mean “whatever it takes to build safe and reliably ethical AI agents,” then by definition it is the approach we need. However, this also empties the notion of any definite technical meaning, threatening to make the notion of value alignment benign but vacuous. Conversely, if “value alignment” designates the active technical project marked by particular methods such as inverse reinforcement learning, then it remains questionable whether and how that approach can reasonably hope to engineer AI systems capable of tracking and being steered by the richly textured, spontaneous, and constantly evolving fabric of human ethical life.', 'Scientists often feel that the issues raised by philosophers and practical ethicists make the determination of appropriate behavior more complicated than it needs to be. Within the engineering ethos, a process cannot be fully understood unless one tries to create or reproduce it. If this is correct, it would seem that to pursue an exclusively theoretical route to machine ethics gets things the wrong way around; better to use technical means to try to reproduce moral action, and learn from our successes and failures along the way. Furthermore, as scientists and others often note, ethicists commonly differ in their judgments, and their approaches do not always lead to clear guidance on courses of action. Seemingly unresolvable moral dilemmas or “wicked” moral problems appear frequently in reflections within moral philosophy. Even applied ethicists acknowledge that there is often neither consensus nor a single optimal solution to many such moral challenges. The complexities inherent in the domain of social action are simply too great.', '“Ethical decision-making cannot be reduced to an algorithm” has been asserted by many a moral philosopher; here the philosopher follows the counsel of Aristotle, who states in his Nicomachean Ethics, “It is the mark of an educated man to look for precision in each class of things just so far as the nature of the subject admits.”4 For our purposes the stress is on the last phrase. Aristotle goes on to argue, we think correctly, that the profound complexity and instability of human social and ethical life does not permit description or analysis of this domain to attain the same level of precision as we would rightly expect from careful description of mathematical objects and relations. But does this mean that ethics cannot offer precise and unambiguous action guidance? And if it cannot, then what good is it to AI research and design? Can the study of ethics provide any useful, practical insights to AI researchers seeking to build systems that are safe and controllable and whose actions can be guaranteed to be beneficial?', 'In this chapter we introduce some ideas and key concepts of moral philosophy that can be placed in the service of machine ethics and show how they can be applied to promote appropriate machine behavior from systems likely to be deployed over the next ten to fifteen years. However, we acknowledge that such approaches are unlikely to be sufficient to ensure ethical machine behavior when, or if, autonomous systems become capable of self-guided intelligent action across the full range of human contexts and settings. In uncontrolled and unrestricted settings, we argue, autonomous AI systems “in the wild”—up to and including AGI—are unlikely to become reliably safe and ethical actors in the absence of some machine analog to embodied human virtue. By “embodied human virtue” we mean the rootedness of moral excellence in the affective, perceptual, and habitual dimensions of the human body and its relationship to the environment it inhabits.', '13.2. Core Concepts in Machine Ethics', 'A few basic distinctions have emerged for clarifying approaches to building moral machines. James Moor5 distinguishes between machines that are implicit ethical agents and those capable of making explicit moral decisions. Implicit ethical agents are those whose behavior has been constrained so they cannot perform ethically forbidden acts. Similarly, Allen, Smit, and Wallach6 made a distinction between computational systems that are operationally moral, functionally moral, and artificial moral agents. Operationally moral systems are those that function within bounded moral contexts, in which the engineers and designers can discern in advance the array of challenges the machines will encounter. In effect, the computational system is programmed in advance to act appropriately in each situation it will encounter. To the extent that the behavior of these machines is imbued with values, they are the values of the designers and engineers who build the systems, or the values of the companies for whom they work. When designers and engineers cannot predetermine all the circumstances an artificial agent will encounter, it becomes necessary for the agent to have subroutines that facilitate making explicit moral decisions. Nevertheless, over the coming decade or two, most artificially intelligent agents will continue to be single-purpose machines operating in bounded moral contexts, and their explicit moral reasoning will be limited to determining which norms or courses of action apply in the situation at hand or when values conflict. For example, a caregiving robot attending to a homebound or elder person might have to select whether to deliver a meal or medicine on schedule or whether to stop and recharge its battery. The right course of action could depend on how critically the individual needs the specific medicine, what might occur if the agent fails to recharge its battery immediately, or other factors.', 'Given limitations in the cognitive capabilities of present-day AI systems, the contexts within which they can function appropriately are limited. However, as breakthroughs are made in machine learning, commonsense reasoning, planning, working with analogies, and language aptitude, the environments within which intelligent systems can operate safely and acceptably will expand.', 'Machine ethicists question how artificial moral agents will make appropriate choices as contexts get more complex, values conflict, and the systems have enough autonomy to encounter a broad array of ethically significant choices. Will they recognize the features of the context they are in, and therefore which norms or procedures apply? Can they prioritize values in a manner that will lead them to appropriate or acceptable actions, if not always the best course of action? Might they be able to make rudimentary analyses of the consequences of various responses to a challenge in order to pick one that appears to maximize welfare, or the “good” of those affected by their action? In which circumstances might they require additional cognitive capabilities, beyond being able to reason, in order to make good judgments? These capabilities might include emotional intelligence, a theory of mind, empathy, embodied intelligence, semantic understanding, and consciousness. The bottom line is practical. Will, and how might, more sophisticated systems act appropriately or acceptably as their autonomy increases and they confront ever more complex contexts and situations?', 'Whether artificial agents will eventually be full moral agents capable of functioning autonomously in all situations and be worthy of rights and responsibility is an intriguing philosophical and legal question that goes well beyond the nearterm practical challenges engineers will confront as they build single systems. Many in the AI community presume AGI and superintelligence are inevitable.7 Their interest in AI safety and value alignment, as mentioned, is often driven by a desire to ensure that advanced AI either is controllable or will embody values that are sensitive to and protective of human needs. Whether focus on nearerterm ethical challenges will lay foundations for ensuring the value alignment of advanced systems or is largely irrelevant to meeting that more futuristic concern is a matter upon which thoughtful experts disagree. Of course, whether AGI or superintelligence is truly possible or likely to be realized in the next fifty to one hundred years is also a matter upon which experts both in and outside of the AI community disagree.', '13.3. Values, Norms, Principles, and Procedures', 'Values and valuing pervade everything. A value can be grounded in a simple valence, such as a disposition to “like” or “dislike” something or someone, or in a subtle preference “for” some entity or state of affairs, regardless of whether that valence is rooted in an ethical concern, such as justice or benevolence. Values can also be understood as intrinsic and unconditional (e.g., the inextricable moral value of the life of a human person), or they can be seen as extrinsic (conditionally assigned to the valued entity by an external valuing agent). Within the neural networks favored by machine-learning researchers, values are commonly represented by valences connected to either a node or a collection of nodes that capture the characteristics of a percept. Simple Hebbian learning, the earliest of machine-learning techniques, can strengthen the connection between the nodes. These connections can also decay in strength over time if left unused. The difficulty lies in assuring that connectionist learning will actually capture the more nuanced and complex characteristics of ethical principles or procedures. That is, can complex values be represented computationally, and if so how? Or, as we will discuss in this chapter, can bottom-up learning be scaled so as to embody a virtuous character?', 'Because values can be so nebulous in their importance, meaning, and application, moral philosophers turn to other concepts and terms to represent higherorder or primary ethical concerns. These include norms, duties, principles, and procedures that inform judgments in morally significant situations. Norms refer to standards, accepted practices, or proscribed behaviors. Within ethics, norms set standards as to the acceptability or permissibility of various forms of behavior. Norms are commonly context-specific; that is, the norm and/or its appropriate mode of expression can change as the context changes.8 Thus the set of possible norm specifications is almost infinite. In theory, an AI system might learn or catalog all norms and the situations to which they apply. However, in practice this would imply a full recognition of the features of the context in which the artificial agent is embedded, in order to discern which norms apply and how they should be expressed. To complicate matters further, consider the fact that the introduction of an artificial agent into any social context will alter that context, adding yet another layer of computational complexity and uncertainty.', 'Higher-order principles that frame many approaches to ethics facilitate decision-making by introducing ethical goals or duties that are defined so broadly that they cover countless situations. For example, in bioethics broadly and medical ethics specifically, the duties of beneficence, nonmaleficence, respecting individual autonomy, and justice or fairness inform all ethical decisionmaking. Such principles might suggest a schema for algorithms that frame an agent’s decisions in ways that aim to reduce contextual variability.', 'Higher-order principles also have weaknesses. The goals or duties they set are often defined so broadly and abstractly that specific applications are debatable. Static definitions of goals and duties can lead to situational inflexibility. Goals and duties can conflict, and a clear method for resolving such conflicts may not be available. Furthermore, top-down computational systems are commonly confronted with “framing” problems—problems in tracking the ethically salient features of a context or the ethical importance of a decision made in a complex environment.9 The use of heuristics for solving such framing problems can be helpful, but may also compromise the integrity and clarity of principle-based reasoning.', 'Instead of seeking conformity to a multiplicity of principles, duties, or goals that may conflict, consequentialist ethics such as utilitarianism favors a procedural solution that maximizes a single goal, such as aggregate welfare or net happiness. In other words, the best course of action is not one where the agent follows the rules, duties, or principles, but rather one in which the agent determines which among the courses of action it might take will lead to the best outcome. Utilitarianism is particularly attractive to AI engineers. It appears to suggest that selecting the right course of action is, in principle, a straightforward exercise wherein the sum of undesirable consequences for each option is subtracted from the sum of desirable consequences, and the option with the largest positive value is the appropriate action. Just calculate! Furthermore, the utility-maximizing principle espoused by consequentialists appears to be similar to the utility functions that AI engineers are familiar with. The strength of mathematical utility functions is that they can factor in a nearly infinite number of variables; that is, they can manage very difficult calculations. In practice, however, there are real differences between utilitarian calculations and what can be accomplished with an empirical utility function. First, there are definitional concerns. What is actually to be maximized? Is it net happiness? Is it net welfare? How are happiness and welfare defined, and what empirical measures will be used to calculate happiness or welfare?', 'More important, utilitarianism depends upon calculating the likely consequences even when it is difficult or impossible to know all the consequences that may result for each course of action or their respective probabilities. For example, how deep should the analysis go? Which secondary and tertiary consequences should be included? Is there a stopping procedure for limiting the depth of analysis? What about factoring in “normal accidents,”10 low-probability events, or Black Swans11—unforeseen, low-probability, high-impact events? Simply put, we often lack adequate information to make satisfactory utilitarian determinations. This critique is commonly thrown at those espousing utilitarianism as a useful ethical theory. In defense, utilitarian theorists such as John Stuart Mill or the contemporary ethicist Peter Singer argue that it is, nevertheless, the “right” principle for distinguishing good actions from bad ones, and rough utilitarian determinations can be made.12 In practice, those utilitarian decisions that are made factor in experience, intuition, and the capacity to imagine and plan possible courses of action and their outcomes. Imagination and planning are well beyond the cognitive capacities realizable in present-day AI systems. Whether future systems will have such capabilities is still unknown.', '13.4. Top-Down, Bottom-Up, and Hybrid Approaches to Moral Machines', 'How helpful is ethical theory in building AI agents sensitive to value considerations and the factoring of these into their choices and actions? Scholars within the field of machine ethics have noted that ethical theory suggests two broad approaches to the design of the control architecture of moral machines: topdown and bottom-up.13', 'A top-down approach takes an antecedently specified ethical theory and analyzes its computational requirements to guide the design algorithms and subsystems capable of implementing the theory. For example, some machine ethicists have considered whether rules such as the Ten Commandments or Asimov’s Laws of Robotics can be implemented computationally. Others have analyzed the computational requirements for instantiating Mill’s utilitarianism, Kant’s categorical imperative, or the prima facie duties espoused by W. D. Ross, though none of these is without deep-seated problems of application and interpretation that resist algorithmic solution.14', 'While it is possible that children come into the world with an innate capacity for moral decision-making, they also generally learn what is acceptable or permissible and what is unacceptable from the bottom up, through experience and learning. If a bottom-up approach to designing a moral machine uses a prior theory at all, it does so only as a way of specifying the task for the system, but not as a way of specifying an implementation method or a control structure. The strength of bottom-up systems lies in their ability to dynamically integrate inputs from discrete subsystems. One weakness is the difficulty in defining the goal a bottom-up system, such as a genetic algorithm, should be trying to actuate or maximize. Another difficulty entails assembling the many discrete components of an agent to operate as a functional whole.', 'Value alignment is a bottom-up approach. Both computational strategies that simulate evolution and machine learning suggest methods for designing algorithms that could facilitate bottom-up approaches for acquiring sensitivity to moral phenomena. However, the details of how the value-alignment problem will be solved through machine learning and evolutionary algorithms are unclear. Furthermore, the forms of machine learning presently available, even the rudimentary forms of unsupervised learning currently being explored, are not robust enough to simulate the structured and unstructured learning that facilitate a child’s exploration of her relationships and environment in the acquisition of moral acumen. At this stage in the development of computational systems, we lack the tools for the kind of unstructured learning in which mental states, subtle emotional rewards, relationships with others, and punishment can play importantroles.', 'Because neither top-down nor bottom-up approaches to machine ethics are likely to deliver the combination of contextual adaptivity and norm governance that full moral agents display, eventually we will need hybrid systems that integrate bottom-up learning with a capacity to subject the evaluation of choices and actions to top-down principles or procedures that represent ideals we strive to meet.15 Such a system must maintain the dynamic morality of bottom-up approaches that accommodate diverse inputs. These include affective inputs that simulate the functional capabilities of moral sentiments and emotions that evolve from being embodied in a world with others and that inform capacities central to moral intellect, such as a theory of mind, social understanding, and sentience. Whether the mere simulation of such inputs will be sufficient, as opposed to their somatic and phenomenal instantiation, is unclear at this time.', '13.5. The Limitations of a Hybrid Approach', 'We have seen that hybrid approaches to developing moral machines may be the most promising approach currently available, yet even these approaches will very likely fall short of supplying human-level moral intelligence. Unless AI is deployed by terrorists, it must be acknowledged that the floor of human moral behavior will remain well below that of machines (for even the least intelligent machine will not be actively malicious or determinedly evil). Our concern here is the ceiling—the comparison between the level of safety and moral security that the best people can offer us, and that which we can expect from our best moral machines. Even with hybrid approaches, we should expect moral machines to struggle in certain contexts involving moral choice, contexts that a morally intelligent and virtuous human agent would normally be capable of managing quite well. Such contexts include (1) contexts requiring the agent to reason creatively or to successfully negotiate and resolve “wicked” moral conflicts between competing values and duties; (2) contexts involving radically new situations or forms of moral choice for which existing rules, principles, and learned patterns of moral behavior are insufficient guidance; (3) contexts involving multiple stakeholders with very different motivations, goals, norms, and capacities, where the moral standing of each interested party must be discovered, or in some cases established, through cooperative and critical moral discourse; and (4) contexts in which the salient ethical features are novel and thus especially difficult to recognize or discern.', 'What all of these cases have in common is the need for a cluster of advanced moral capacities that even a hybrid approach to machine morality is likely to fall short in delivering. These include the following:', 'Creative moral reasoning—the ability to invent new and appropriate moral solutions in ways underdetermined by the past.', 'Moral discourse—the ability to identify, conceptually frame, and negotiate moral solutions through cooperative reasoning with other moral agents.', 'Critical moral reflection—the ability to stand back and critically evaluate one’s own moral outlook, and that of others, from the moral point of view itself, that is, the capacity to form second-order normative evaluations of existing moral values, desires, rules, and reasons.', 'Moral discernment, which includes the capacity to recognize new or previously uncategorized forms of moral salience, as well as recognizing subtle moral tensions and conflicts that reveal unresolved ethical issues.', 'Holistic moral judgment—the ability to make sense of a complex situation in ways that transcend the sum of its composite ethical factors, with an eye toward actively constructing the best way to live, all things considered.', 'Again, it is uncontroversial that many if not most humans fail to cultivate these advanced moral capacities in themselves, or if they do, fail to deploy them consistently and well. But it is equally uncontroversial that some humans have cultivated these capacities and are able to deploy them, with varying degrees of practical success. The existence of human moral expertise, however fragile and rare, is a fact that not only informs but sustains the domain of ethics in human history. It is how ethical norms and standards are able to remain adaptive to changing social and physical environments. It is what makes ethics truly normative and open to progressive improvement rather than functioning merely as convention, or as “politics by other means.” It is also what makes ethics our only reliable recourse for action guidance when the mechanisms of law, politics, or custom and convention fail or become corrupted in ways that endanger the wellbeing of the moral community.', 'Two common features mark these advanced moral capacities: their potential responsiveness to new or reconfigured moral phenomena and their support for holistic, qualitative judgments that “make sense” of the moral field as a whole, in ways that go beyond the addition and subtraction of explicit values embedded in its parts.16 Machines that lack these advanced moral capacities will be incapable of managing the kinds of situations that require them, and if given unsupervised agency in those contexts, such “moral machines” may fail in ways that gravely endanger human interests. As long as we retain meaningful and robust human control of machine behavior, this need not preclude the responsible use of machines equipped with lesser degrees of moral capacity. After all, such machines may function well in the vast majority of ethical contexts, most of which are relatively mundane. They may even be more consistently successful in mundane contexts than will humans in aggregate, given our species’ distinctive penchant for self-destructive, spiteful, unreasonably aggressive, and malicious conduct. Furthermore, as a species we are often distracted, inattentive, or neglectful of moral considerations, a trait unlikely to be passed on to moral machines. Thus if moral machines could be safely confined to these mundane settings, we might need to go no further than a bottom-up or hybrid approach that ensures close value alignment with whatever human moral conventions are operative in those settings.17', 'Yet such behavioral confinement by value-alignment strategies cannot be guaranteed, for two reasons: first, because a mundane moral context can easily be perturbed by a sudden change or development, one that causes an unpredictable spiral of an easily manageable situation into a “wicked” or unprecedented moral challenge that demands advanced moral competence. Second, it is a near certainty that the growing demand for, and expansions of, machine autonomy in a range of practical contexts will place increasing pressure on the safety mechanisms of human supervision and machine confinement.', '13.6. Virtue Ethics and Virtuous Machines', 'What, then, must we do? What sort of machine could be trusted as an ethical agent even in those situations demanding advanced moral competence? We can find outlines of an answer in a normative account of virtue ethics: a type of approach to ethics that is grounded not in rules or consequences but in the distinctive character traits of morally excellent agents, traits such as practical wisdom, honesty, justice, and moderation.18 Virtue ethics is frequently used as a model by those advocating hybrid and bottom-up theories of moral machine development,19 but in those accounts virtue ethics is generally considered to be no more than an instructive pattern that may be helpful for AI researchers to imitate in various ways, rather than a standard of ethical agency that one aims to literally embody in a machine. Nevertheless, Wallach and Allen20 note that machine virtues, if they could be embodied, would provide the kind of reliability in moral character we would need from more advanced artificial agents. This is because virtues function as context-adaptive skills that generally enable their possessors to navigate moral contexts successfully—even contexts that are novel or unusually challenging. While virtuous agents are not morally infallible, they reliably approximate the peak level of moral performance that can be asked or expected of trusted agents operating in a given social context.'] | [
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89b4ee1b99236e229dfe8c4a880229b17732eee79f2489c57fa22ac056f913fe | Alignment based on current law causes lock-in. | null | Philip Sales 21, justice of the Supreme Court of the United Kingdom, “Algorithms, Artificial Intelligence, and the Law,” Judicature, Vol. 105, No. 1, 2021, https://judicature.duke.edu/articles/algorithms-artificial-intelligence-and-the-law/ | Law is algorithmic discipline change has resulted from minor shifts in responses But code are not open to this tends to freeze thought along tramrails this limit legislative responses erodes capacities to change power rigidity at the intersection of law and coding is amplified by a machine immune to challenge Because digital processes are fixed than law and operate with speed we need to question systems ex ante | Law is a sort of algorithmic discipline Apart from deliberate change , legal development has generally resulted from minor shifts in responses But algorithms in code are not in themselves open to this kind of change as our world becomes digital also tends to freeze categories of thought along tramrails written in code this can limit legislative responses this erodes human capacities to question and change power relations Coding will reflect unspoken biases in ways that seem beyond challenge coding algorithms are closed systems This rigidity enters at the point of the intersection of law and coding . It is a machine variant of the old problem of law laid down in advance This effect of the rigid frozen aspect of coding is amplified by being subjected to power that is fixed a machine over which one has no control which is immune to challenge or appeal Because digital processes are more fixed in their operation than human algorithms of law and operate with immense speed at the point of application of rules , we need to focus on ways of scrutinizing and question ing the content of digital systems at the ex ante design stage | Law algorithmic discipline deliberate change minor shifts responses algorithms code not in themselves open digital freeze categories of thought tramrails code limit legislative responses erodes human capacities question change power relations Coding unspoken biases beyond challenge rigidity enters intersection of law and coding machine variant law laid down in advance rigid frozen aspect of coding amplified subjected power fixed a machine no control immune to challenge appeal more fixed human algorithms of law immense speed application of rules content of digital systems ex ante design stage | ['Law is itself a sort of algorithmic discipline: If factors A, B, and C are present, then by a process of logical steps legal response Z should occur. Apart from deliberate legislative change, legal development has generally resulted from minor shifts in legal responses. These responses take place to accommodate background moral perspectives on a case, perspectives which themselves may be changing over time. With algorithms in law, as applied by humans, this evolution happens naturally in the context of implementation of the law. But algorithms in computer code are not in themselves open to this kind of change in the course of implementation.', 'Richard Susskind brought this home to me with an analogy from the card game Patience. It has set rules, but a human playing with cards can choose not to follow them. There is space to try out changes. But when playing Patience in a computer version, it is simply not possible to make a move outside the rules of the game.7 Similarly, coding algorithms create a danger of freezing particular relationships in set configurations with set distributions of power, which seem to be natural and beyond any question of contestation. The wider perceptual control that is noticeable as our world becomes increasingly digital also tends to freeze categories of thought along tramrails written in code.8 Unless resisted, this can limit imagination and inspiration even for legislative responses to digitization.', 'All this erodes human capacities to question and change power relations.9 Coding will reflect the unspoken biases of the human coders and in ways that seem beyond challenge. Moreover, coding algorithms are closed systems. As written, they may not capture everything of potential significance for the resolution of a human problem. With the human application of law, the open-textured nature of ideas, like justice and fairness, creates the possibility for immanent critique of the rules being applied and leaves room for wider values not explicitly encapsulated in law’s algorithm to enter the equation leading to a final outcome. That is true not just for the rules of the common law, but in the interstices of statutory interpretation.10 These features are squeezed out when using computer coding. There is a disconnect in the understanding available in the human application of a legal algorithm and the understanding of the coding algorithm in the machine.', 'This rigidity enters at the point of the intersection of law and coding. It is a machine variant of the old problem of law laid down in advance as identified by Aristotle: The legislator cannot predict all future circumstances in which the stipulated law will come to be applied, and so cannot ensure that the law will always conform to its underlying rationale and justification at the point of its application. His solution was to call for a form of equity or flexibility at the point of application of the law, what he called epieikeia (usually translated as equity), to keep it aligned to its rationale while it is being applied and enforced.11', 'A coding algorithm, like law, is a rule laid down in advance to govern a future situation. However, equity or rule modification or adjustment in the application of law is far harder to achieve in a coding algorithm under current conditions.', 'It may be that at some point in the future, AI systems, at a stage well beyond simple algorithmic systems, will be developed with a fine-grained sensitivity to rule application to allow machines to take account of equity informed by relevant background moral, human rights, and constitutional considerations. Machines may well develop to a stage at which they can recognize hard cases within the system and operate a system of triage to refer those cases to human administrators or judges, or indeed decide the cases themselves to the standard achievable by human judges today.12 Application of rules of equity or recognition of hard cases, where different moral and legal considerations clash, is ultimately dependent on pattern recognition, which AI is likely to be able to handle.13 But we are not there yet.', 'As things stand, using the far more crude forms of algorithmic coding that we do, there is a danger of losing a sense of code as something malleable, changeable, potentially flawed, and requiring correction. Subjecting human life to processes governed by code means that code can gain a grip on our thinking, which reduces human capacities and diminishes political choice.', 'Preventing Technocracy', 'This effect of the rigid or frozen aspect of coding is amplified by the other two elements to which I call attention: (i) ignorance among lawyers and in society generally about coding and its limitations and capacity for error; and (ii) secrecy surrounding coding that is actually being used. The impact of the latter is amplified by the willingness of governments to outsource the design and implementation of systems for delivery of public services to large tech companies, on the footing that they have the requisite coding skills.', 'Philip Alston, United Nations (UN) Special Rapporteur on Extreme Poverty and Human Rights, recently presented a report on digital welfare systems to the UN General Assembly.14 He identifies two pervasive problems. First, governments are reluctant to regulate tech firms, for fear of stifling innovation. Second, the private sector is resistant to taking human rights systematically into account in designing their systems.', 'Alston refers to a speech by UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson to the UN General Assembly on Sept. 24, 2019, in which he warned that we are slipping into a world characterized by round-the-clock surveillance, the perils of algorithmic decision-making, the difficulty of appealing against computer determinations, and the inability to plead extenuating circumstances against an algorithmic decision-maker. In this world, the power of the public to criticize and control the systems that are put in place to undertake vital activities in both the private and the public sphere is eroded by the lack of understanding and access to relevant information. Democratic control of law and the public sphere is being lost.', 'David Runciman argues in How Democracy Ends15 that the appeal of modern democracy has been founded on a combination of, first, providing mechanisms for individuals to have their voice taken into account, thereby being afforded respect in the public sphere; and, second, its capacity to deliver long-term benefits in the form of a chance to share in stability, prosperity, and peace. But, he says, the problem for democracy in the 21st century is that these two elements are splitting apart. Effective solutions to shared problems depend more and more on technical expertise, so that there has been a movement to technocracy, or rule by technocrats using expertise that is not available or comprehensible to the public at large. The dominance of economic and public life by algorithmic coding and AI is fueling this shift as it changes the traditional, familiar ways of aligning power with human interests through democratic control by citizens, regulation by government, and competition in markets.', 'At the same time, looking from the other end of the telescope, from the point of view of the individual receiving or seeking access to services, one might have a sense of being subjected to power that is fixed and remorseless16 — an infernal machine over which one has no control, and which is immune to any challenge or appeal to consider extenuating circumstances, or to any plea for mercy. For access to digital platforms and digital services in the private sphere, the business model is usually take it or leave it: Accept access to digital platforms on their terms requiring access to your data and on their very extensive contract terms excluding their legal responsibility, or be barred from participating in an increasingly pervasive aspect of the human world. This may be experienced as no real choice at all. The movement begins to look like a reversal of Sir Henry Maine’s famous progression from status to contract. We seem to be going back to status again.', 'Meanwhile, access to public services is being depersonalized. The individual seems powerless in the face of machine systems and loses all dignity in being subjected to their control. The movement here threatens to be from citizen to consumer and then on to serf.', 'Malcolm Bull argues in On Mercy17 that it is mercy rather than justice that is foundational for politics. Mercy, as a concession by the powerful to the vulnerable, makes rule by the powerful more acceptable to those on the receiving end and hence more stable. In a few suggestive pages at the end of the book, under the heading “Robotic Politics,” Bull argues that as the world is increasingly dominated by AI, we humans become vulnerable to power outside our knowledge and control; therefore, he says, we should program into the machines a capacity for mercy.18', 'The republican response to the danger of power and domination, namely of arming citizens with individual rights, will still be valuable. But it will not be enough if the asymmetries of knowledge and power are so great that citizens are in practice unable to deploy their rights effectively. So what we need to look for are ways of trying to close the gap between democratic, public control and technical expertise to meet the problem identified by David Runciman; ways of trying to build into our digital systems a capacity for mercy, responsiveness to human need, and equity in the application of rules to meet the problem identified by Malcolm Bull; and ways of fashioning rights that are both effective and suitable to protect the human interests that are under threat in this new world.', 'We are not at a stage to meet Malcolm Bull’s challenge, and rights regimes will not be adequate. People are not being protected by the machines and often are not capable of taking effective action to protect themselves. Therefore, we need to create laws that require those who design and operate algorithmic and AI systems to consider and protect the interests of people who are subject to those systems.', 'Evaluating Technical Systems', 'Because digital processes are more fixed in their operation than the human algorithms of law and operate with immense speed at the point of application of rules, we need to focus on ways of scrutinizing and questioning the content of digital systems at the ex ante design stage. We also need to find effective mechanisms to allow for systematic ex post review of how digital systems are working and — without destroying the efficiency gains they offer — for ex post challenges to individual concrete decisions to correct legal errors and ensure equity and mercy.'] | [
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61ae3321126dd922b8320954b06d6d70a210102dade8e013bfae75460cc85b9e | ONLY the CP solves trust. | null | Joshua James Hatherley 20, School of Historical, Philosophical, and International Studies, Monash University, Clayton, “Limits of Trust in Medical AI,” Journal of Medical Ethics, vol. 46, no. 7, 07/2020, pp. 478–481 | AI revolutionise medicine however led to concerns effects of tech on trust between doctors and patients AI are not appropriate objects of trust under any account since AI displace epistemic authority of human clinicians AI threatens a deficit patients are more likely to accept their physician’s judgement if they have trust more likely participate in research , adhere to treatment remain with a physician If AI systems are adopted as another tool at the clinician’s disposal the effect on trust would be minimal . Patients would rely on accuracy of tools, but their trust would be staked in the judgement of the human who interprets outputs and incorporates into their judgements | AI is expected to revolutionise medicine progress however , has led to concerns regarding potential effects of tech on trust between doctors and patients there is merit to these concerns AI systems are not the appropriate objects of trust under any philosophical account This is critical , since AI systems likely displace the epistemic authority of human clinicians if they come to exceed them As such insofar as patients are required to rely on AI AI threatens to produce a deficit in trusting clinical relationships Trust has intrinsic and instrumental significance in medicine patients are more likely to accept and behave in accordance with their physician’s judgement if they have a trust i ng relationship They are more likely to demonstrate ‘willingness to seek care, reveal sensitive info submit to treatment , participate in research , adhere to treatment remain with a physician and recommend physicians to others’ trusting doctor-patient relationships have a number of therapeutically valuable effects on patients AI’s effect on relations of trust between doctors and patients is bound up with the precise role that AI may come to occupy in medical practice and the authority that it comes to hold If AI systems are eventually adopted as merely another tool at the clinician’s disposal the effect of these systems on trust would likely be minimal . Patients would rely on the accuracy of these tools, but their trust would be staked in the judgement of the human physician who interprets their outputs and incorporates them into their own clinical judgements | AI revolutionise medicine tech trust doctors and patients is merit not the appropriate objects of trust under any philosophical account critical displace epistemic authority of human clinicians exceed them required to rely on AI deficit in trusting clinical relationships intrinsic instrumental significance more likely accept behave in accordance judgement trust i ng relationship seek care, reveal sensitive info submit to treatment research treatment physician recommend physicians others’ therapeutically AI’s precise role authority hold eventually adopted another tool clinician’s disposal trust would likely be minimal trust staked in the judgement of the human physician who interprets their outputs and incorporates them into their own clinical judgements | ['Introduction', 'Artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to revolutionise the practice of medicine. Recent advancements in the field of deep learning have demonstrated success in variety of clinical tasks; for instance, detecting diabetic retinopathy from images,1 predicting hospital readmissions2 and aiding in the discovery of new drugs.3 It has been suggested that AI will facilitate a variety of improvements in medical practice, ranging from economic savings to the improvement of empathetic communication between doctors and patients, from increased productivity to greater professional satisfaction and from improved health outcomes to an amplified rate of discovery in medical research.4 AI’s progress in medicine, however, has led to concerns regarding the potential effects of this technology on relationships of trust, particularly between doctors and patients.5 6 In this paper, I will argue that there is merit to these concerns, since AI systems are not the appropriate objects of trust under any familiar philosophical accounts of trust. This is critical, since, as I will argue in section 3, AI systems are likely to displace the epistemic authority of human clinicians if they come to exceed them in performance. As such, I will argue that insofar as patients are required to rely on AI systems for their medical decision-making, AI threatens to produce a deficit in trusting clinical relationships between doctors and patients.', 'Trust in medicine', 'Trust has both intrinsic and instrumental significance in medicine.i Intrinsically, trust is what imbues the doctor-patient relationship with its uniqueness and importance. A patient comes to a physician in a state of sickness and vulnerability, and is thereby forced to place their trust in another person to treat them with competence and, ideally, empathy and care. This vulnerability of the patient is what imbues the relationship with inherent value, since ‘trust is inseparable from vulnerability, in that there is no need for trust in the absence of vulnerability’.7 The vulnerability of the patient, and the resulting power of the physician, imbue the physician with a fiduciary obligation to behave in a morally upright and appropriate manner, to use their authority in the service of the patient as opposed to themselves or some other end.', 'In contrast, trust also has instrumental value in medicine. First, because patients are more likely to accept and behave in accordance with their physician’s judgement if they have a trusting relationship with them. They are more likely to demonstrate ‘willingness to seek care, reveal sensitive information, submit to treatment, participate in research, adhere to treatment regimens, remain with a physician and recommend physicians to others’.7 Second, it is speculated that trusting doctor-patient relationships have a number of therapeutically valuable effects on patients—improved patient outcomes and placebo effects, for example. Finally, a good physician is one that can demonstrate care for their patients, and patients are more likely to feel that they have been adequately cared for when they trust the person caring for them.', 'AI in medicine', 'AI’s effect on relations of trust between doctors and patients is bound up with the precise role that AI may come to occupy in medical practice and the epistemic authority that it comes to hold in clinical decision-making procedures. If AI systems are eventually adopted as merely another tool at the clinician’s disposal—akin to a stethoscope, thermometer or blood pressure monitor—the effect of these systems on trust would likely be minimal. Patients, of course, would rely on the accuracy of these tools, but their trust would be staked in the judgement of the human physician who interprets their outputs and incorporates them into their own clinical judgements. However, recent developments in areas such as deep learning suggest that the epistemic authority of human clinicians in clinical decisionmaking will be challenged by the use of AI in medicine.'] | [
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7df432b7582acc85d3372eabad37c2ccbf96e094c0dc59ea4423c41c176bf051 | 2. Too many barriers to phage therapies---regulatory uncertainty, toxicity, and public backlash. | null | Hugo Oliveira et al. 15, Laboratório de Investigação em Biofilmes Rosário Oliveira, Centre of Biological Engineering, University of Minho, “Unexploited Opportunities for Phage Therapy,” Frontiers in Pharmacology, vol. 6, 09/07/2015, p. 180 | challenging factors of phages 1. Intrinsic stability concentration environmental factors and ability to induce bacterial resistance (i) isolation can be demanding for phages targeting fastidious hosts ii toxicity phages are produced in the presence of bacterial hosts presence of bacterial toxins in the phage releasing endotoxins phages are inactivated by antibodies It is not clear which is the regulatory framework uncertainty of phage-specific regulatory guidelines along with patentability difficulties hurdles investments in the Western worl there is also low awareness | One can anticipate challenging factors of phages 1. Intrinsic -driven refer to phage profile stability concentration environmental factors and inherent ability to induce bacterial resistance . These limitations have been extensively discussed External factors can be more problematic as they are difficult to anticipate and resolve , such as (i) isolation can be a demanding task that can become even more challenging for phages targeting fastidious hosts as their availability and likelihood of being found in the environment are relatively low ii toxicity due to its nucleic acid and protein nature, phages are produced in the presence of bacterial hosts , therefore a careful design of the downstream processes is required to avoid the presence of bacterial toxins in the phage releasing endotoxins after bursting bacterial cells inside the human body may limit phage treatment Phage neutralization phages are removed by the reticuloendothelial system and inactivated by neutralizing antibodies the most important barriers in phage therapy are Regulatory acceptance and Lack of public awareness . It is not clear which is the best regulatory framework for phase therapy: can phages be considered medicinal biological or advanced arguments debated by experts representing different stakeholder groups, fit phage therapy partially but not totally in every definition. This turns regulation of phage products currently difficult to achieve , unless a dedicated legal framework is created the uncertainty of phage-specific regulatory guidelines along with patentability difficulties hurdles the potential of investments critical in the Western worl d, where there is also a low awareness of the potential of phage therapy by medical society . Besides exploiting various therapeutic applications, a tremendous effort is still needed in phage therapy research and on the regulatory side | challenging factors 1. Intrinsic -driven profile stability concentration environmental induce bacterial resistance extensively discussed External more problematic difficult to anticipate resolve (i) isolation fastidious hosts ii toxicity presence of bacterial hosts careful design downstream processes bacterial toxins phage endotoxins bursting bacterial cells inside the human body limit phage treatment neutralization removed reticuloendothelial system inactivated neutralizing antibodies most important barriers Regulatory acceptance Lack of public awareness not clear best regulatory framework medicinal biological advanced partially not totally every difficult to achieve dedicated legal framework uncertainty phage-specific regulatory guidelines patentability hurdles investments critical Western awareness medical society research regulatory side | ["One can anticipate several challenging factors of therapeutic and biotechnology development of phages, as depicted in Figure \u200bFigure1.1. Intrinsic-driven factors are not discussed here but refer to phage profile (e.g., virulent or temperate nature, specificity, burst size), stability (e.g., pH, temperature), concentration (ideal multiplicity of infection is phage dependent), environmental factors and its inherent ability to induce bacterial resistance. These limitations have been extensively discussed elsewhere (Loc-Carrillo and Abedon, 2011). External factors can be considered more problematic as they are difficult to anticipate and resolve, such as: (i) Phage isolation, difficulties can be expected in the isolation of some of the phages, already a demanding task that can become even more challenging for phages targeting fastidious hosts as their availability and likelihood of being found in the environment are relatively low; (ii) Phage toxicity, although considered inherently non-toxic, due to its nucleic acid and protein nature, phages are produced in the presence of bacterial hosts, therefore a careful design of the downstream processes is required to avoid the presence of any bacterial toxins in the phage product (Merabishvili et al., 2009). The factor of releasing endotoxins after bursting bacterial cells inside the human body may limit phage treatment of Gram-negative systemic infections too, however the same challenges exist for some antibiotics and more detailed studies will be needed for each specific phage and bacterial host; (iii) Phage neutralization, some studies have shown that phages are removed by the reticuloendothelial system and inactivated by the development of neutralizing antibodies like most pharmaceuticals that interact with the body's immune system (Westwater et al., 2003; Lusiak-Szelachowska et al., 2014). Although the risks are minimal because of low speed of these processes and non-dependence of successful outcome on anti-phage activity of human immune system (Lusiak-Szelachowska et al., 2014), the delivery of less-immunogenic phages either with proper nanocarriers (e.g., liposomes) or by engineering them to have non-immunogenic and biocompatible peptides on their surface (e.g., polyethylene glycol molecules) are considered; (iv) Phage access to host; the choice of the delivery system plays a key role in the success of phage therapy. Recent advances in phage therapy show that targeted delivery has been more successful for localized infection treatment, while for systemic infections the parenteral route is recommended (Ryan et al., 2011). Treatment of intracellular bacterial infections remains the main challenge for medical care. As mentioned above, obligatory or facultative intracellular bacterial pathogens either reproducing themselves and thriving in cells, such as M. leprae, Chlamydia, Ehrlichia, and Rickettsia or taking transient refuge therein are shielded from many antimicrobials, hence phage therapy may fail too. Finally, and probably the most important barriers in phage therapy are still (iv) Regulatory acceptance and (v) Lack of public awareness. It is not clear yet, which is the best regulatory framework for phase therapy: can phages be considered medicinal products, biological medicinal products or advanced medicinal products, according to Directive 2001/83/EC. Several arguments recently debated by experts representing different stakeholder groups, fit phage therapy partially (but not totally) in every possible definition. This turns regulation of phage products currently difficult to achieve, unless a dedicated European legal framework is created (Verbeken et al., 2014). This “marketing” authorization should also contemplate legislation either for a standard phage-based product or for more specific, tailor-made phage preparations. Overall, the uncertainty of phage-specific regulatory guidelines along with the patentability difficulties, hurdles the potential of pharmaceutical investments. This is practically critical in the Western world, where there is also a low awareness of the potential of phage therapy by large part of medical society. Besides exploiting various therapeutic applications, a tremendous effort is still needed in phage therapy research and on the regulatory side, to bring phages from the bench to the patient's bedside."] | [
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cb3b084abe83b8704ea008ef62206882b9547b9f6d7d4280ab7035bd0232af27 | The countries that matter will solve escalation with institutions. | null | Sarah Cliffe 16, Director of the Center on International Cooperation at New York University, 3/29/16, “Food Security, Nutrition, and Peace,” http://cic.nyu.edu/news_commentary/food-security-nutrition-and-peace | research does not link food insecurity and conflict Many face food price shocks without conflict it would be too simplistic to suggest it was primary institutions help citizens affected in Mexico or the Philippines institutional strength deal with shocks and protests did not deteriorat national security | current research does not indicate a clear link between food insecurity and conflict Food security – and food prices – are a highly political issue But their link to conflict is indirect Many countries face food price or natural resource shocks without falling into conflict factors determining their resilience are whether food insecurity is combined with other stresses We sometimes read drought was a factor in the Syrian conflict, it would be too simplistic to suggest it was the primary driver whether countries have strong enough institutions providing help quickly to citizens affected by food insecurity During the 08 food crisis, developing countries with low institutional strength experienced more food price protests This is the difference in the events in Haiti versus in Mexico or the Philippines where far greater institutional strength existed to deal with the food price shocks and protests did not spur deteriorat ing national security or widespread violence | does not link to conflict Many without falling into conflict other stresses too simplistic Mexico or the Philippines protests did not spur deteriorat national security | ['However, current research does not yet indicate a clear link between climate change, food insecurity and conflict, except perhaps where rapidly deteriorating water availability cuts across existing tensions and weak institutions. But a series of interlinked problems – changing global patterns of consumption of energy and scarce resources, increasing demands for food imports (which draw on land, water, and energy inputs) can create pressure on fragile situations. Food security – and food prices – are a highly political issue, being a very immediate and visible source of popular welfare or popular uncertainty. But their link to conflict (and the wider links between climate change and conflict) is indirect rather than direct. What makes some countries more resilient than others? Many countries face food price or natural resource shocks without falling into conflict. Essentially, the two important factors in determining their resilience are: First, whether food insecurity is combined with other stresses – issues such as unemployment, but most fundamentally issues such as political exclusion or human rights abuses. We sometimes read nowadays that the 2006-2009 drought was a factor in the Syrian conflict, by driving rural-urban migration that caused societal stresses. It may of course have been one factor amongst many but it would be too simplistic to suggest that it was the primary driver of the Syrian conflict. Second, whether countries have strong enough institutions to fulfill a social compact with their citizens, providing help quickly to citizens affected by food insecurity, with or without international assistance. During the 2007-2008 food crisis, developing countries with low institutional strength experienced more food price protests than those with higher institutional strengths, and more than half these protests turned violent. This for example, is the difference in the events in Haiti versus those in Mexico or the Philippines where far greater institutional strength existed to deal with the food price shocks and protests did not spur deteriorating national security or widespread violence.'] | [
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5498e08bef6d6ed1b5f355eadd7b1a36d7fedffebd56cc7f821d0e94eded0604 | 1. The CP solves public confidence in compensation for victims. | null | Jin Yoshikawa 19, Attorney at Butler Snow Law Firm, J.D. From Vanderbilt where he was the EIC of the Vanderbilt Journal of Intellectual and Technology Law, “Sharing the Costs of Artificial Intelligence: Universal No-Fault Social Insurance for Personal Injuries,” 21 Vanderbilt Journal of Entertainment and Technology Law 1155 (2020), nhttps://scholarship.law.vanderbilt.edu/jetlaw/vol21/iss4/8 | Al will cause injuries shifting liability will be challenging it would not be surprising if public opinion swings to fear a social insurance scheme that covers all injuries regardless of fault balances the public's interest in receiving Al's benefits with victims' interest in just compensation will maintain public confidence and support growth of Al industries | In the coming decades, Al will provide vast improvements in comfort, convenience, safety, security, and social justice. at the same time, Al will inevitably cause a variety of injuries Preventing these injuries or shifting the liability with regulation will be challenging As a result it would not be surprising if public opinion quickly swings to suspicion , even fear , of Al . In response, this Note proposes a social insurance scheme that covers all personal injuries regardless of fault The proposed solution properly balances the public's interest in receiving Al's benefits with victims' interest in just compensation A complete and effective social welfare system will maintain public confidence in the development of Al and support the continuing growth of Al industries . | coming decades, vast improvements injuries Preventing shifting liability challenging As a result not surprising public opinion quickly swings suspicion fear Al social insurance scheme covers all personal injuries regardless of fault balances public's interest receiving Al's benefits victims' interest just compensation maintain public confidence development of Al continuing growth Al industries | ['IV. CONCLUSION', "In the coming decades, Al will provide vast improvements in comfort, convenience, safety, security, and even social justice. But at the same time, Al will inevitably cause a variety of injuries, the costs of which will land disproportionately on blameless victims. Preventing these injuries or shifting the liability with regulation will be challenging. As a result, it would not be surprising if public opinion quickly swings to suspicion, even fear, of Al. In response, this Note proposes a social insurance scheme that covers all personal injuries regardless of fault and whether Al was involved. The proposed solution properly balances the public's interest in receiving Al's benefits as soon as possible with victims' interest in just compensation. Going forward, lawmakers will also need to consider appropriate responses to intangible injuries, such as economic injuries, emotional and psychological injuries, improper discrimination, and breaches of privacy. A complete and effective social welfare system will maintain public confidence in the development of Al and support the continuing growth of Al industries."] | [
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5ab46a8acb0a36450dc942430ea7cde80c27054d1b76115750c2daf6dc83f825 | 2. It adequately compensates end-users. | null | Emiliano Marchisio 21, professor, Law Department, “Giustino Fortunato” University, Benevento, Italy, “In support of “no-fault” civil liability rules for artificial intelligence,” SN Social Sciences volume 1, Article number: 54 (2021), https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s43545-020-00043-z | We need to adapt to risk society to discard blame culture which inspires civil liability , and replac it with no-blame risk management negative externalities imposed on AI markets by civil liability could be reduced if producers could be released from liability when there is no ev of negligence Such release should not prevent damaged customers to get compensation a new regulation should be developed, on the basis of “ no-fault” systems one can cite no-fault in the field of medical damage adverse effects attributed to vaccination damages coming from unknown drivers no-fault would isolate compensation in favour of damaged end-users from liability on producers | A new paradigm of civil compensation for damages related to AI: towards the evolution of compensation from an issue of civil liability to one of financial management of losses The law, binds economic and social activities in order to contribute to the pursuit of welfare ; on the other hand, however, the law cannot arbitrarily define its objectives and (especially) the means. The actual functioning of the economic and social contexts faced must be taken into the utmost consideration in order to develop well-founded, affordable, reliable and effective rules (de Jong et al. 2018). The failure of the current paradigm of civil liability based on deterrence , when applied to artificial intelligence, observed and (I believe) established above, requires a radical modification thereof. Such a modification appears relevant in these days, since the application of the “ traditional” paradigm of civil liability can hinder the development of markets towards the intensive use of artificial intelligence and robotisation in the future (the technology chilling Furthermore, civil liability rules rooted in deterrence are likely to place jurisdictions adopting this paradigm at a competitive disadvantage in favour of jurisdictions that are more responsive to the needs and demands of the markets referred to. We need to adapt the legislation to the “ risk society ”, that is: “a systematic way of dealing with hazards and insecurities induced and introduced by modernization Such a conclusion should lead to discard ing the “ blame culture ”, which inspires and supports the current law on civil liability , and replac ing it , at least in some cases ( b with a “ no-blame culture ”, rooted in risk management the negative externalities imposed on the AI markets by the traditional civil liability paradigm could be reduced if producers and programmers of artificial intelligence devices could be released from civil liability under certain conditions; in particular, when there is no ev idence of their negligence , imprudence or unskillfulness and their activity complied with scientifically validated standards Such release , however, may not (and should not ) lead to prevent damaged customers and end-users to get compensation This is why I believe that a new regulation of the matter should be developed, inspired by a new paradigm , aimed at maintaining compensation for damages on the patient’s side, but shifting away from producers and programmers of AI devices This new paradigm could be built on the basis of “ no-fault” systems available in different jurisdictions one can cite the no-fault rules issued in the field of medical damage adverse effects attributed to vaccination damages coming from unknown drivers Adopting a “ no-fault ” scheme would isolate compensation in favour of damaged end-users from liability on producers and programmers of AI devices. It would also help resolve other weaknesses inherent in the traditional paradigm of civil liability One can mention, here, the risk of civil liability turning into a “ damages lottery ” due to the fact that, in some cases, the damages cannot be awarded because no one is at fault in the specific event. It is also possible to report the case in which damages cannot be collected because the debtor is unable to pay | new paradigm civil compensation damages civil liability financial management of losses pursuit of welfare cannot arbitrarily define its objectives actual functioning utmost consideration failure current paradigm deterrence radical modification traditional” paradigm hinder development markets intensive use artificial intelligence robotisation technology chilling competitive disadvantage more responsive systematic way hazards insecurities modernization discard ing blame culture ”, civil liability replac ing it , no-blame culture risk management negative externalities reduced producers programmers released liability no ev idence negligence imprudence unskillfulness prevent damaged customers compensation new regulation a new paradigm maintaining compensation damages shifting away producers programmers no-fault” systems medical damage vaccination unknown drivers isolate compensation damaged end-users resolve weaknesses civil liability damages lottery no one is at fault unable to pay | ['A new paradigm of civil compensation for damages related to AI: towards the evolution of compensation from an issue of civil liability to one of financial management of losses', 'It is necessary, at this stage, to translate the above observations into rules. The law, in fact, binds economic and social activities in order to contribute to the pursuit of welfare; on the other hand, however, the law cannot arbitrarily define its objectives and (especially) the means. The actual functioning of the economic and social contexts faced must be taken into the utmost consideration, in order to develop well-founded, affordable, reliable and effective rules (de Jong et al. 2018).', 'The failure of the current paradigm of civil liability based on deterrence, when applied to artificial intelligence, observed and (I believe) established above, requires a radical modification thereof. Such a modification appears relevant in these days, since the application of the “traditional” paradigm of civil liability can hinder the development of markets towards the intensive use of artificial intelligence and robotisation in the future (the already mentioned “technology chilling”). Furthermore, civil liability rules rooted in deterrence are likely to place jurisdictions adopting this paradigm at a competitive disadvantage in favour of jurisdictions that are more responsive to the needs and demands of the markets referred to.', 'What is surprising is that in areas of research other than law problems quite similar have been studied thoroughly and scholars have come to the conclusion that intrinsically risky activities incorporate a certain percentage of risk that does not depend on the person performing them but on the activities themselves (Althaus 2005; Aldred 2013; Aven 2012, 2016; Beck 1996; Lindley 2006). Errors occur and will occur regardless of the severity of the civil liability rules in force.', 'This theme recalls the concept of “manufactured uncertainties” developed by Beck, which is based on the idea that in modern times the area of “unknown” is widened and risks escape from what is capable of being predicted pursuant to our current scientific methods.Footnote26 We need to adapt the legislation to the “risk society”, that is: “a systematic way of dealing with hazards and insecurities induced and introduced by modernization itself” (Beck 1992).', 'Such a conclusion should lead to discarding the “blame culture”, which inspires and supports the current law on civil liability, and replacing it, at least in some cases (as briefly discussed here) with a “no-blame culture”, rooted in risk managementFootnote27 and scientifically validated standardisation. While literature on risk management is fairly consistent on this point, lawyers and lawmakers seem rather conservative on this point.', 'In this regards, it was noted, above, that the negative externalities imposed on the AI markets by the traditional civil liability paradigm could be reduced if producers and programmers of artificial intelligence devices could be released from civil liability under certain conditions; in particular, when there is no evidence of their negligence, imprudence or unskillfulness and their activity complied with scientifically validated standards.Footnote28', 'Such release, however, may not (and should not) lead to prevent damaged customers and end-users to get compensation. In fact, on their side, any abrogation of the right to compensation would be inconsistent with the “solidarity” approach that now pervades juridical systems, mentioned above. In addition to this, it would contradict the principle of “functional equivalence”, according to which compensation should not be denied in a situation involving emerging digital technologies “when there would be compensation in a functionally equivalent situation involving human conduct and conventional technology”.Footnote29', 'This is why I believe that a new regulation of the matter should be developed, inspired by a new paradigm, aimed at maintaining compensation for damages on the patient’s side, but shifting away from producers and programmers of AI devices (when there is no evidence of negligence, imprudence, or unskillfulness and scientifically validated standard of production and programming are complied with) the obligation to pay for such compensation.Footnote30', 'In other words, I see room for relevant legislation to evolve from an issue of civil liability into one of financial management of losses. This would take better account of the “systemic” need for proper functioning of the market as a whole. In fact, what could seem in the short term to favour the individual customer (e.g., condemning a producer to pay compensation for a specific damage suffered by an end-user of AI devices or robots, despite compliance with validated standards and no negligence, imprudence or unskillfulness being ascertained in court) can possibly damage systemic safety (determined, in hypothesis, by the development of AI) if it prevents the market from developing into a more technological and safer system (due to the disincentives determined by the sentence itself; in the example above: producers could abandon research and development of AI devices and robots operating in risky environments).', 'The legal systems should bear the risk that application of scientifically validated standards can determine harmful consequences in individual cases to the extent that, from a systemic point of view, this application allows a significant reduction of the overall risks and damage (Kizer and Blum 2005; Hernandez 2014; US Department of Transportation 2017).', 'This new paradigm could be built on the basis of “no-fault” systems available in different jurisdictions.Footnote31 In this regard, one can cite the no-fault rules issued in the field of medical damage, further described in § 7 (see, in general: OECD 2006; Marchisio 2020); adverse effects attributed to vaccination (World Health Organisation 2009; Looker and Kelly 2011); damages coming from unknown driversFootnote32 etc..', 'Adopting a “no-fault” scheme would isolate compensation in favour of damaged end-users from liability on producers and programmers of AI devices. It would also help resolve other weaknesses inherent in the traditional paradigm of civil liability. One can mention, here, the risk of civil liability turning into a “damages lottery” due to the fact that, in some cases, the damages cannot be awarded because no one is at fault in the specific event. It is also possible to report the case in which damages cannot be collected because the debtor is (in many instances: deliberately) unable to pay (Atiyah 1997; Cane and Goudkamp 2013).'] | [
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"The failure of the current paradigm of civil liability based on deterrence, when applied to artificial intelligence, observed and (I believe) established above, requires a radical modification thereof. Such a modification appears relevant in these days, since the application of the “traditional” paradigm of civil liability can hinder the development of markets towards the intensive use of artificial intelligence and robotisation in the future (the",
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2f17a8a8e2058b0ac22c4a8f58f416253c126a0b1d8be38516e593a5f7a42c1e | Vesting rights and duties in new legal personalities requires specifying the exact rights and obligations---the CP doesn’t. | null | Joanna J. Bryson 17, Lecturer in Computer Science at the University of Bath, et al., 9/8/17, “Of, for, and by the people: the legal lacuna of synthetic persons,” Artificial Intelligence and Law, Vol. 25, pp. 273-291 | divisibility raises question which rights and duties system should confer We should resolve legal personhood at this level , rather than treating personhood as all-or-nothing legal system would need to say specifically which rights and obligations If not the system will struggle to make sense of what it has done . To confer “legal personality,” without being more specific , is to legal personality as a black box | divisibility of legal personhood raises the question of which rights and duties a legal system should confer on a legal person We should resolve the issue of the legal personhood at this level , rather than treating legal personhood as an all-or-nothing black box convincing demonstration of correctness being impossible as long as the mechanism is regarded as a black box, our only hope lies in not regarding the mechanism as a black box A legal system , if it chose to confer legal personality would need to say specifically which legal rights and obligations went with the designation. If it does not the legal system will struggle to make sense of what it has done . To try to confer “legal personality,” without being more specific , is to regard legal personality as a black box | divisibility which rights and duties at this level impossible only hope would need to say specifically which legal rights and obligations struggle to make sense of what it has done without being more specific | ['The divisibility of legal personhood raises the question of which rights and duties a legal system should confer on a legal person, once it has decided to recognize the legal person as such. We should resolve the issue of the legal personhood of robots at this level, rather than treating legal personhood as an all-or-nothing black box (Koops et al. 2010, p. 556). Edsger Dijkstra has noted, “A convincing demonstration of correctness being impossible as long as the mechanism is regarded as a black box, our only hope lies in not regarding the mechanism as a black box” (Dijkstra 1970). A legal system, if it chose to confer legal personality on robots, would need to say specifically which legal rights and obligations went with the designation. If it does not, then the legal system will struggle, as happened with the Bank for International Settlements, to make sense of what it has done. To try to confer “legal personality,” without being more specific, is to regard legal personality as a black box. In line with the fictionalist paradigm, and as the ICJ opined with respect to the UN, the legal system should determine the legal rights and obligations of a new legal person by reference to how the legal person relates to the legal system’s purposes.'] | [
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e3a453c75a6266bfeab16f45114dee4459273da43ab862e4fd570eb1d80c1977 | Vesting language has to be explicit. | null | Susan R. Bolton 22, United States District Judge, 2022, “Contreras v. Asarco LLC,” U.S. Dist. LEXIS 31708, 2022 WL 802980, https://advance-lexis-com.turing.library.northwestern.edu/api/document?collection=cases&id=urn:contentItem:64VN-00K1-F27X-602V-00000-00&context=1516831. | implied vesting fails to establish benefits were vested Tackett forbid applying a presumption that benefits vest absent intention to vest Tackett mandate vesting does not occur without clear intent to vest benefits | Statements that Benefits "May" Vest Ostensibly to argue for implied vesting , Plaintiffs emphasize ASARCO represented retiree healthcare benefits "may" be vested this evidence fails to establish that benefits were vested Plaintiffs have established that evidence suggests it was unclear whether the benefits were vested Tackett and Reese forbid any adjudicator from applying a presumption that benefits vest absent evidence of an employer's intention to vest benefits . Tackett and Reese mandate that vesting does not occur without the parties' clear intent to vest benefits | "May" Vest implied vesting "may" be vested were vested unclear benefits were vested Tackett Reese presumption benefits vest employer's intention vest benefits mandate vesting clear intent vest benefits | ['a. Statements that Benefits "May" Vest', 'Ostensibly to argue for implied vesting, Plaintiffs emphasize that at several different points, ASARCO or ASARCO negotiators represented that retiree healthcare benefits "may" be vested. (E.g. Resp. at 19; Resp. SOF at 22-23, 40, 47-48.) But this evidence fails to establish that a reasonable factfinder could determine that lifetime benefits were vested for the Class Members. At most, Plaintiffs have established that certain extrinsic evidence suggests it was unclear whether the benefits were vested. However, echoing [*33] ERISA\'s promotion of employer flexibility regarding provision of welfare benefits, Tackett and Reese forbid any adjudicator from applying a presumption that benefits vest absent evidence of an employer\'s intention to vest benefits. See Tackett, 574 U.S. at 442; Reese, 138 S. Ct. at 763-64 (condemning inference that benefits vest when contract is silent as to duration of benefits). On the contrary, Tackett and Reese mandate that vesting does not occur without the parties\' clear intent to vest benefits, and permissive language reflects no clear intent to vest. See Tackett, 574 U.S. at 435, 441; Reese, 138 S. Ct. at 765.'] | [
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2d50bc19ebdfb4825b83f7efc45e295f3c7d7fc734580f289c76ab1cb2b84978 | It’s nonsense produced by AI industry groupthink that ignores basic knowledge about cognitive process. | null | Manfred Velden 22, professor at the University of Mainz, Berlin (TU) and Osnabrück, studied psychology at the Universities of Bonn and Berkeley, “Preface,” and “Introduction,” Human-like Computers: A Lesson in Absurdity, Schwabe Verlag, 2022, pp. 7–12 | the human must be different so obvious it makes the very asking obscene debate is dominated by engineers psychologists contribute little They furthered such outlandish ideas as computers becoming superintelligent to refute would be Sisyphus’ With the latest accomplishment weekly unless the community realizes there are qualitative differences which cause comparisons make no sense whatsoever a typical phrase like “culture poured into artificial brains reminds in nonsensicality of Dadaism . The only difference is Dada is funny and AI researchers are convinced they talk reasonably absurdities , like machine motives or self replicating underestimates deep ignorance about biological basis | we must ask in what way the human must necessarily be different from the machine. The answer is so obvious it makes the very asking of the question appear ludicrous , if not obscene . It is a sign of madness that this is to be addressed at all Weizenbaum probably thought as science progressed, the answer would become obvious to everyone in the field this did not happen . The opposite happened Today it is common “knowledge” that computers will, sooner or later , be human-like So was Weizenbaum proven wrong? Quite the contrary the debate is largely dominated by engineers , mathematicians and info scientists psychologists the specialists responsible for the mental functions the computer scientists intend to emulate contribute d little to instructing those scientists about the nature of human mental functions or the grave definitional problems that plague the science of psychology . They rather decided to ride the computers-can-be-human wave and thus furthered rather than criticized that flawed project, promulgating even such outlandish ideas as that of computers becoming superintelligent or superhuman , and that they eventually will take over control of the world I want to refute the idea that there can be machines comparable to humans I soon realized that my task would be comparable to Sisyphus’ With the latest accomplishment popping up weekly I would have to push the rock every week with no end in sight The book would have to be rewritten once a year . Machines with human-like functions have been predicted for decades this wi ll go on for decades more unless the scientific community realizes there are qualitative differences between human mental functions and functions running on computers , which cause quantitative comparisons to make no sense whatsoever A comparison between human and computer is not seen as mad in the AI community not because obvious similarities could be shown to exist there aren’t any but because this kind of speak has become common among AI researchers . Take a typical phrase like “culture is poured into artificial brains ” You can pour culture into computers as little as you can pour the theory of relativity into a teacup . Any nonsense can be brought forward in a gramatically correct form and, if done routinely may not be felt as nonsense any more . The phrase about how culture can get into a machine reminds one in its nonsensicality of The head is round to allow thoughts to change direction much of AI speak appears inspired by Dadaism . The only difference between AI and Dada is that Dada is funny and the Dadaists consciously invented nonsensicalities while AI is by no means funny and AI researchers are convinced they talk reasonably when reading the AI literature, we are confronted with all kinds of absurdities , like machine s having motives westernized desires or human-like bodies , or self replicating intelligent machines the engineering perspective of the field largely underestimates our deep ignorance about the biological basis of those processes “if you want to mimic something you should know what it is the man-a-machine is not just somehow problematic but it is absurd ridiculousy nonsensical | must different so obvious very asking of the question ludicrous obscene madness addressed at all did not happen opposite happened “knowledge” sooner or later human-like proven wrong? contrary engineers mathematicians info scientists psychologists specialists intend to emulate contribute little instructing nature of human mental functions grave definitional problems that plague the science of psychology ride computers-can-be-human wave furthered criticized outlandish ideas superintelligent superhuman take over control of the world refute comparable to Sisyphus’ latest accomplishment weekly push the rock every week no end in sight rewritten once a year decades go on decades more realizes qualitative differences human mental functions functions running on computers quantitative comparisons no sense whatsoever not AI community not shown to exist aren’t any kind of speak common among AI researchers typical poured into artificial brains as little as you can pour the theory of relativity into a teacup Any nonsense can be brought forward in a gramatically correct form routinely not be felt as nonsense any more into a machine nonsensicality round thoughts change direction inspired by Dadaism difference Dada is funny consciously AI no means AI researchers convinced they talk reasonably all kinds of absurdities machine motives desires human-like bodies self replicating intelligent engineering underestimates deep ignorance biological basis know what it is just problematic absurd ridiculousy nonsensical | ['When in the debate about the possible humanness of computers the MIT computer scientist Joseph Weizenbaum was hard pressed to concede that computers can be “socialized”, he found that they could but in an extremely limited sense. He then stated:', 'If both machines and humans are socializable, then we must ask in what way the socialization of the human must necessarily be different from that of the machine. The answer is, of course, so obvious that it makes the very asking of the question appear ludicrous, if indeed not obscene. It is a sign of the madness of our time that this issue is to be addressed at all. (Weizenbaum, 1976, p. 210)', 'For Weizenbaum the answer was so obvious that he even did not bother to give it. He probably thought that, as science progressed, the answer would eventually become obvious to everyone in the field anyway. But this did not happen. The opposite happened. Today, nearly half a century later, it is common “knowledge” among scientists and in a wide public that computers will, sooner or later, be human-like. Some think that computers already are.', 'So was Weizenbaum eventually proven wrong? Was he, who reasoned about the future of the computer world, about the “digital age”, as thoroughly as nobody else, unable to foresee a future where the difference between humans and machines would become blurred, as many in the AI community want to make us believe, a development which, if it actually happened, would have a transforming impact on the future of mankind? In the decades following his above statement, Weizenbaum actually never distanced himself from it. Quite to the contrary, he was more and more convinced that a serious misdevelopment was occuring in man’s attitude toward computers. So before we discuss his decades old statement as one caused by lack of fantasy and made obsolete by scientific progress, we had better take pains to delve into the scientific-philosophical depths of the man-machine issue. This is what this book is about. Unfortunately, this issue is not only, and predictably so, an extremely complex one, but, more importantly, the whole debate is also plagued by a deep ignorance about the nature of human mental processes, about the human psyche. This need not surprise us, because the debate is largely dominated by engineers, mathematicians and information scientists. Sadly, psychologists, actually the specialists responsible for the very mental functions the computer scientists intend to emulate, have contributed little to instructing those computer scientists about the nature of human mental functions or the grave definitional problems that plague the science of psychology. They rather decided to ride the computers-can-be-human-like wave and thus furthered rather than criticized that flawed project, promulgating even such outlandish ideas as that of computers becoming superintelligent or even superhuman, and that they eventually will take over control of the world from those outmoded creatures that used to be called humans.', '[INTRODUCTION BEGINS]', 'When planning this book, in which I want to refute the idea that there can be processes in machines comparable to mental processes in humans, i.e. that machines can be human-like, I first thought to take typical examples of computer functions allegedly comparable to human mental functions, compare the two and then decide whether it makes sense to regard computer functions as really human-like. But I soon realized that my task would be comparable to Sisyphus’. With the latest computer accomplishment popping up on a monthly if not weekly basis, I would have to start pushing the rock uphill anew every month or week with no end in sight. The book would have to be rewritten at least once a year. Machines with human-like mental functions now have been predicted for many decades (since the advent of electronic computers) and I am afraid that this will go on for many decades more unless the scientific community realizes that there are qualitative differences between human mental functions and functions running on computers, which cause quantitative comparisons (as with, for example, intelligence) to make no sense whatsoever. So the book will be about a priori grounds on which computers cannot be human-like.', 'When, long ago, I read Weizenbaum’s comment that to compare the socialization of a machine with that of a human is a sign of madness, I immediately felt that this was the ultimate comment possible and did not expect Weizenbaum to explain why (which he did not bother to do anyway). But the insight into this madness not having befallen the scientific community nearly half a century later that “Why” must finally be delivered.', 'A comparison between the socialization of a human and that of a computer is not seen as mad in the AI community. This is so not because obvious similarities could be shown to exist between the two (there aren’t any; there is just a faint analogy in that both are somehow affected by their environment) but simply because this kind of speak (and think) has become quite common among AI researchers. Take a typical phrase like “culture is poured into artificial brains” (Collins, 2018, p. 173). You can pour culture into computers as little as you can pour the theory of relativity into a teacup. Any nonsense can be brought forward in a gramatically correct form and, if done routinely, it may not be felt as nonsense any more. The above phrase about how culture can manage to get into a machine reminds one in its nonsensicality of Francis Picabia’s1 “The head is round in order to allow the thoughts to change direction”. At a closer look much of AI speak appears to be inspired by Dadaism. The only difference between AI and Dada speak is that Dada is funny and the Dadaists consciously invented nonsensicalities in order to provoke and entertain, while AI speak is by no means funny and the AI researchers are convinced that they talk reasonably. So when reading the AI literature, we are confronted with all kinds of absurdities, like machines being socialized, having human feelings, motives, consciousness and religion, westernized human-like desires, and culture being poured or fed into machines, or with artificial slaves with human-like bodies, or with self replicating intelligent machines. I think that large parts of the AI literature may be seen as lessons in absurdity, presented as rational, scientifically based predictions about our digital future.', 'The idea of human-like computers is based, quite like its 18th century predecessor, L’homme machine (Man a Machine) by de la Mettrie (1921), on a simple mechanistic-materialistic belief, abandoned in physics long ago. As a consequence of this simplistic man-a-machine view, the whole debate about human mental functions in computers suffers, as mentioned, from a deep ignorance about the nature of human mental processes, about the human psyche. In addition to that, the engineering perspective of the field largely underestimates our deep ignorance about the biological, largely neural, basis (the biological substrate) of those processes. So I will in some detail deal with that substrate and then try to paint a realistic picture of the daunting complexity of human mental functions in accord with the simple motto “if you want to mimic something you should know what it is.”', 'That picture will constitute the largest part of the book. My view of the man-a-machine matter is not just that the idea is a somehow problematic one, but that it is an absurd, i.e. a ridiculousy nonsensical one. This view, identical to the one Weizenbaum took half a century ago, today is one held by a small minority facing a huge majority of believers in human-like computers, both in a wide public and also among scientists. To convince the reader to join a small minority against a seemingly overwhelming opposition is no easy task. As a kind of psychological support in this task let me, before coming to the actual topic of the book (the absurdity of the man-a-machine notion), present some examples from mental history where a large majority had it wrong for decades, centuries or even milennia. And let me also point to some peculiar characteristics of the debate which must make us doubt that we are dealing with a scientific one in the first place. In terms of argumentation, the field must be seen as one following entirely its own rules.'] | [
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e97b6888c9fad9f127e4d1e0f92fb2c6b2b0e573225ea47ac69af893c6ed2b88 | You can’t just scale up deep learning until you end up with AGI. It is a fundamentally different kind of problem than narrow machine learning. | null | François Chollet 18, Software engineer and AI researcher, currently a Senior Staff Software Engineer at Google, formerly Machine Learning Architect at Thunder, formerly Software Engineer at FreshPlanet, “Conclusions,” Deep Learning with Python, Manning Publications Co, 2018, pp. 314–339 | with deep learning many applications are completely out of reach even given vast data reasoning —like programming the scientific method long-term planning is out of reach because deep-learning is just simple geometric transformations mapping one vector space into another assuming a learnable continuous transform most programs can’t be expressed as deep-learning models either there exists no network that solves or the transform may be too complex , or there may not be data more layers can only superficially palliate some issues. It won’t solve more fundamental problems that most programs can’t be expressed as geometric morphing of a data manifold humans tend to project intent when a model generate captions we believe the model “understands” Then we’re surprised when slight departure causes completely absurd captions anything that deviates from training will break in absurd ways Humans maintain complex, abstract models use these to anticipate futures and perform long-term planning merge concepts to represent something never experienced hypotheticals expand our model space beyond experience using no data at all in sharp contrast with deep nets to navigate a city the net would die thousands of times humans learn without having to die once don’t expect any robot apocalypse to ensue : that’s pure fantasy , coming from profound misunderstandings of intelligence and tech | The space of applications that can be implemented with deep learning is near ly infinite . And yet, many applications are completely out of reach even given vast amounts of human-annotated data . Say you could assemble a dataset of millions —of descriptions of the features of a software product as well as the corresponding source code Even with this data , you could not train a deep-learning model to read a product description and generate the appropriate codebase anything that requires reasoning —like programming or applying the scientific method — long-term planning , and algorithmic data manipulation is out of reach for deep-learning models , no matter how much data you throw Even learning a sorting algorithm with a deep neural network is tremendously difficult This is because deep-learning is just a chain of simple , continuous geometric transformations mapping one vector space into another . All it can do is map one data manifold X into another manifold Y , assuming the existence of a learnable continuous transform A deep-learning model can be interpreted as a kind of program; but most programs can’t be expressed as deep-learning models —for most tasks, either there exists no corresponding deep-neural network that solves or , even if one exists , it may not be learnable the corresponding geometric transform may be far too complex , or there may not be appropriate data available Scaling up current techniques by stacking more layers and using more data can only superficially palliate some of these issues. It won’t solve the more fundamental problems that deep-learning models are limited in what they can represent most of the programs you may wish to learn can’t be expressed as a continuous geometric morphing of a data manifold One real risk with contemporary AI is misinterpreting what deep-learning models do and overestimating their abilities . A fundamental feature of humans is our theory of mind : our tend ency to project intent ions and knowledge on things around us . Drawing a smiley face on a rock suddenly makes it “happy”— in our minds . Applied to deep learning, this means when we ’re able to somewhat successfully train a model to generate captions we ’re led to believe that the model “understands” the contents Then we’re surprised when any slight departure from the sort of images present in the training data causes the model to generate completely absurd captions this is highlighted by adversarial examples , which are samples fed to a deep-learning network that are designed to trick the model it’s possible to do gradient ascent in input space to generate inputs that maximize the activation of some filter you can slightly modify an image in order to maximize the class prediction for a given class . By taking a picture of a panda and adding a gibbon gradient , we can get a neural network to classify the panda as a gibbon This evidences both the brittleness of these models and the deep difference between their mapping and our perception deep- learning models don’t have any understanding of their input in a human sense . Our own understanding of images, sounds, and language is grounded in our sensorimotor experience as humans . Machine-learning models have no access to such experiences and thus can’t understand their inputs in a human-relatable way . By annotating large numbers of training examples to feed into our models, we get them to learn a geometric transform that maps data to human concepts on a specific set of examples, but this mapping is a simplistic sketch of the original model in our minds like a dim image in a mirror never fall into the trap of believing that neural networks understand the task they perform—they don’t They were trained on a different, far narrower task that of mapping training inputs to training targets, point by point . Show them anything that deviates from their training and they will break in absurd ways There are fundamental differences between the geometric morphing from input to output that deep-learning models do, and the way humans think and learn. It isn’t only the fact that humans learn by themselves from embodied experience there’s a basic difference in the nature of the underlying representations . Humans are capable of far more than mapping immediate stimuli to immediate responses We maintain complex, abstract models of our situation ourselves and other people , and can use these models to anticipate different possible futures and perform long-term planning . We can merge known concepts to represent something we’ve never experienced before This ability to handle hypotheticals , to expand our mental model space beyond what we can experience directly —to perform abstraction and reasoning —is the defining characteristic of human cognition an ability to adapt to novel situations using no new data at all This stands in sharp contrast with deep nets mapping inputs to outputs performed by a deep net quickly stops making sense if new inputs differ even slightly from what the net saw at training time Consider the problem of learning the appropriate launch parameters to get a rocket to land on the moon. If you used a deep net for this task and trained it using supervised learning or reinforcement learning, you’d have to feed it thousands or even millions of launch trials: you’d need to expose it to a dense sampling of the input space , in order for it to learn a reliable mapping In contrast, as humans we can use our power of abstraction to come up with physical models —rocket science—and derive an exact solution that will land the rocket on the moon in one or a few trials if you developed a deep net controlling a human body , and you wanted it to learn to safely navigate a city the net would have to die thousands of times Dropped into a new city, the net would have to relearn what it knows On the other hand, humans are able to learn safe behaviors without having to die even once thanks to our power of abstract modeling of hypothetical situations we’re far from human - level AI Given what we know of how deep nets work, their limitations, and the current state of research can we predict where things are headed ? long-term Models will be more like programs and will have capabilities that go beyond the continuous geometric transformations of the input data we currently work with. These programs will be closer to abstract mental models models will blend algorithmic modules This global library and associated model-growing system will be able to achieve some form of generalization But don’t expect any singularitarian robot apocalypse to ensue : that’s pure fantasy , coming from a long series of profound misunderstandings of both intelligence and tech nology | applications near infinite many completely out of reach vast amounts millions features corresponding source code this data not train a deep-learning model to read a product description and generate the appropriate codebase reasoning programming scientific method long-term planning out of reach how much data sorting tremendously difficult chain simple , continuous geometric transformations mapping one vector space into another map one data manifold X into another manifold Y learnable continuous transform most programs can’t be expressed as deep-learning models either exists no corresponding deep-neural network solves exists not be learnable far too complex be data available Scaling up current stacking more layers more data superficially some fundamental limited in what they can represent most programs wish can’t be expressed continuous geometric morphing of a data manifold misinterpreting what deep-learning models do overestimating their abilities humans theory of mind tend project intent knowledge things around us a smiley face on a rock in our minds we somewhat successfully train generate captions we believe “understands” contents surprised slight departure completely absurd captions adversarial examples fed designed to trick the model maximize activation of some filter modify maximize the class prediction for a given class gibbon gradient get a neural network to classify the panda as a gibbon brittleness deep difference their mapping our perception any understanding of their input in a human sense sensorimotor experience as humans no access experiences can’t understand human-relatable way learn a geometric transform maps data simplistic sketch original model in our minds dim image in a mirror understand don’t narrower mapping training inputs to training targets, point by point deviates break in absurd ways fundamental differences geometric morphing from input to output deep-learning models humans only themselves embodied experience nature of the underlying representations far more immediate stimuli immediate responses complex, abstract models situation ourselves other people anticipate different possible futures long-term planning merge never experienced before hypotheticals expand beyond experience directly abstraction reasoning defining characteristic of human cognition adapt novel situations no new data at all sharp contrast deep nets stops making sense new inputs even slightly training time dense sampling of the input space reliable mapping power of abstraction physical models derive one or a few trials human body safely navigate a city net die thousands of times relearn without having to die even once far predict headed ? long-term more like programs beyond currently closer blend form generalization don’t expect any singularitarian robot apocalypse to ensue pure fantasy long series of profound misunderstandings of both intelligence and tech | ['9.2 The limitations of deep learning', 'The space of applications that can be implemented with deep learning is nearly infinite. And yet, many applications are completely out of reach for current deeplearning techniques—even given vast amounts of human-annotated data. Say, for instance, that you could assemble a dataset of hundreds of thousands—even millions—of English-language descriptions of the features of a software product, written by a product manager, as well as the corresponding source code developed by a team of engineers to meet these requirements. Even with this data, you could not train a deep-learning model to read a product description and generate the appropriate codebase. That’s just one example among many. In general, anything that requires reasoning—like programming or applying the scientific method—long-term planning, and algorithmic data manipulation is out of reach for deep-learning models, no matter how much data you throw at them. Even learning a sorting algorithm with a deep neural network is tremendously difficult.', 'This is because a deep-learning model is just a chain of simple, continuous geometric transformations mapping one vector space into another. All it can do is map one data manifold X into another manifold Y, assuming the existence of a learnable continuous transform from X to Y. A deep-learning model can be interpreted as a kind of program; but, inversely, most programs can’t be expressed as deep-learning models—for most tasks, either there exists no corresponding deep-neural network that solves the task or, even if one exists, it may not be learnable: the corresponding geometric transform may be far too complex, or there may not be appropriate data available to learn it.', 'Scaling up current deep-learning techniques by stacking more layers and using more training data can only superficially palliate some of these issues. It won’t solve the more fundamental problems that deep-learning models are limited in what they can represent and that most of the programs you may wish to learn can’t be expressed as a continuous geometric morphing of a data manifold.', '9.2.1 The risk of anthropomorphizing machine-learning models', 'One real risk with contemporary AI is misinterpreting what deep-learning models do and overestimating their abilities. A fundamental feature of humans is our theory of mind: our tendency to project intentions, beliefs, and knowledge on the things around us. Drawing a smiley face on a rock suddenly makes it “happy”—in our minds. Applied to deep learning, this means that, for instance, when we’re able to somewhat successfully train a model to generate captions to describe pictures, we’re led to believe that the model “understands” the contents of the pictures and the captions it generates. Then we’re surprised when any slight departure from the sort of images present in the training data causes the model to generate completely absurd captions (see figure 9.1).', '[FIGURE 9.1 OMITTED]', 'In particular, this is highlighted by adversarial examples, which are samples fed to a deep-learning network that are designed to trick the model into misclassifying them. You’re already aware that, for instance, it’s possible to do gradient ascent in input space to generate inputs that maximize the activation of some convnet filter—this is the basis of the filter-visualization technique introduced in chapter 5, as well as the DeepDream algorithm in chapter 8. Similarly, through gradient ascent, you can slightly modify an image in order to maximize the class prediction for a given class. By taking a picture of a panda and adding to it a gibbon gradient, we can get a neural network to classify the panda as a gibbon (see figure 9.2). This evidences both the brittleness of these models and the deep difference between their input-to-output mapping and our human perception.', '', 'In short, deep-learning models don’t have any understanding of their input—at least, not in a human sense. Our own understanding of images, sounds, and language is grounded in our sensorimotor experience as humans. Machine-learning models have no access to such experiences and thus can’t understand their inputs in a human-relatable way. By annotating large numbers of training examples to feed into our models, we get them to learn a geometric transform that maps data to human concepts on a specific set of examples, but this mapping is a simplistic sketch of the original model in our minds—the one developed from our experience as embodied agents. It’s like a dim image in a mirror (see figure 9.3).', '[FIGURE 9.3 OMITTED]', 'As a machine-learning practitioner, always be mindful of this, and never fall into the trap of believing that neural networks understand the task they perform—they don’t, at least not in a way that would make sense to us. They were trained on a different, far narrower task than the one we wanted to teach them: that of mapping training inputs to training targets, point by point. Show them anything that deviates from their training data, and they will break in absurd ways.', '9.2.2 Local generalization vs. extreme generalization', 'There are fundamental differences between the straightforward geometric morphing from input to output that deep-learning models do, and the way humans think and learn. It isn’t only the fact that humans learn by themselves from embodied experience instead of being presented with explicit training examples. In addition to the different learning processes, there’s a basic difference in the nature of the underlying representations.', 'Humans are capable of far more than mapping immediate stimuli to immediate responses, as a deep network, or maybe an insect, would. We maintain complex, abstract models of our current situation, of ourselves, and of other people, and can use these models to anticipate different possible futures and perform long-term planning. We can merge together known concepts to represent something we’ve never experienced before—like picturing a horse wearing jeans, for instance, or imagining what we’d do if we won the lottery. This ability to handle hypotheticals, to expand our mental model space far beyond what we can experience directly—to perform abstraction and reasoning—is arguably the defining characteristic of human cognition. I call it extreme generalization: an ability to adapt to novel, never-before-experienced situations using little data or even no new data at all.', 'This stands in sharp contrast with what deep nets do, which I call local generalization (see figure 9.4). The mapping from inputs to outputs performed by a deep net quickly stops making sense if new inputs differ even slightly from what the net saw at training time. Consider, for instance, the problem of learning the appropriate launch parameters to get a rocket to land on the moon. If you used a deep net for this task and trained it using supervised learning or reinforcement learning, you’d have to feed it thousands or even millions of launch trials: you’d need to expose it to a dense sampling of the input space, in order for it to learn a reliable mapping from input space to output space. In contrast, as humans we can use our power of abstraction to come up with physical models—rocket science—and derive an exact solution that will land the rocket on the moon in one or a few trials. Similarly, if you developed a deep net controlling a human body, and you wanted it to learn to safely navigate a city without getting hit by cars, the net would have to die many thousands of times in various situations until it could infer that cars are dangerous, and develop appropriate avoidance behaviors. Dropped into a new city, the net would have to relearn most of what it knows. On the other hand, humans are able to learn safe behaviors without having to die even once—again, thanks to our power of abstract modeling of hypothetical situations.', '[FIGURE 9.4 OMITTED]', 'In short, despite our progress on machine perception, we’re still far from human-level AI. Our models can only perform local generalization, adapting to new situations that must be similar to past data, whereas human cognition is capable of extreme generalization, quickly adapting to radically novel situations and planning for long-term future situations.', '9.2.3 Wrapping up', 'Here’s what you should remember: the only real success of deep learning so far has been the ability to map space X to space Y using a continuous geometric transform, given large amounts of human-annotated data. Doing this well is a game-changer for essentially every industry, but it’s still a long way from human-level AI.', 'To lift some of the limitations we have discussed and create AI that can compete with human brains, we need to move away from straightforward input-to-output mappings and on to reasoning and abstraction. A likely appropriate substrate for abstract modeling of various situations and concepts is that of computer programs. We said previously that machine-learning models can be defined as learnable programs; currently we can only learn programs that belong to a narrow and specific subset of all possible programs. But what if we could learn any program, in a modular and reusable way? Let’s see in the next section what the road ahead may look like.', '9.3 The future of deep learning', 'This is a more speculative section aimed at opening horizons for people who want to join a research program or begin doing independent research. Given what we know of how deep nets work, their limitations, and the current state of the research landscape, can we predict where things are headed in the medium term? Following are some purely personal thoughts. Note that I don’t have a crystal ball, so a lot of what I anticipate may fail to become reality. I’m sharing these predictions not because I expect them to be proven completely right in the future, but because they’re interesting and actionable in the present.', 'At a high level, these are the main directions in which I see promise:', '\uf0a1 Models closer to general-purpose computer programs, built on top of far richer primitives than the current differentiable layers. This is how we’ll get to reasoning and abstraction, the lack of which is the fundamental weakness of current models.', '\uf0a1 New forms of learning that make the previous point possible, allowing models to move away from differentiable transforms.', '\uf0a1 Models that require less involvement from human engineers. It shouldn’t be your job to tune knobs endlessly.', '\uf0a1 Greater, systematic reuse of previously learned features and architectures, such as metalearning systems using reusable and modular program subroutines.', 'Additionally, note that these considerations aren’t specific to the sort of supervised learning that has been the bread and butter of deep learning so far—rather, they’re applicable to any form of machine learning, including unsupervised, self-supervised, and reinforcement learning. It isn’t fundamentally important where your labels come from or what your training loop looks like; these different branches of machine learning are different facets of the same construct. Let’s dive in.', '9.3.1 Models as programs', 'As noted in the previous section, a necessary transformational development that we can expect in the field of machine learning is a move away from models that perform purely pattern recognition and can only achieve local generalization, toward models capable of abstraction and reasoning that can achieve extreme generalization. Current AI programs that are capable of basic forms of reasoning are all hardcoded by human programmers: for instance, software that relies on search algorithms, graph manipulation, and formal logic. In DeepMind’s AlphaGo, for example, most of the intelligence on display is designed and hardcoded by expert programmers (such as Monte Carlo Tree Search); learning from data happens only in specialized submodules (value networks and policy networks). But in the future, such AI systems may be fully learned, with no human involvement.', 'What path could make this happen? Consider a well-known type of network: RNNs. It’s important to note that RNNs have slightly fewer limitations than feedforward networks. That’s because RNNs are a bit more than mere geometric transformations: they’re geometric transformations repeatedly applied inside a for loop. The temporal for loop is itself hardcoded by human developers: it’s a built-in assumption of the network. Naturally, RNNs are still extremely limited in what they can represent, primarily because each step they perform is a differentiable geometric transformation, and they carry information from step to step via points in a continuous geometric space (state vectors). Now imagine a neural network that’s augmented in a similar way with programming primitives—but instead of a single hardcoded for loop with hardcoded geometric memory, the network includes a large set of programming primitives that the model is free to manipulate to expand its processing function, such as if branches, while statements, variable creation, disk storage for long-term memory, sorting operators, advanced data structures (such as lists, graphs, and hash tables), and many more. The space of programs that such a network could represent would be far broader than what can be represented with current deep-learning models, and some of these programs could achieve superior generalization power.', 'We’ll move away from having, on one hand, hardcoded algorithmic intelligence (handcrafted software) and, on the other hand, learned geometric intelligence (deep learning). Instead, we’ll have a blend of formal algorithmic modules that provide reasoning and abstraction capabilities, and geometric modules that provide informal intuition and pattern-recognition capabilities. The entire system will be learned with little or no human involvement.', 'A related subfield of AI that I think may be about to take off in a big way is program synthesis, in particular neural program synthesis. Program synthesis consists of automatically generating simple programs by using a search algorithm (possibly genetic search, as in genetic programming) to explore a large space of possible programs. The search stops when a program is found that matches the required specifications, often provided as a set of input-output pairs. This is highly reminiscent of machine learning: given training data provided as input-output pairs, we find a program that matches inputs to outputs and can generalize to new inputs. The difference is that instead of learning parameter values in a hardcoded program (a neural network), we generate source code via a discrete search process.', 'I definitely expect this subfield to see a wave of renewed interest in the next few years. In particular, I expect the emergence of a crossover subfield between deep learning and program synthesis, where instead of generating programs in a generalpurpose language, we’ll generate neural networks (geometric data-processing flows) augmented with a rich set of algorithmic primitives, such as for loops and many others (see figure 9.5). This should be far more tractable and useful than directly generating source code, and it will dramatically expand the scope of problems that can be solved with machine learning—the space of programs that we can generate automatically, given appropriate training data. Contemporary RNNs can be seen as a prehistoric ancestor of such hybrid algorithmic-geometric models.', '[FIGURE 9.5 OMITTED]', '9.3.2 Beyond backpropagation and differentiable layers', 'If machine-learning models become more like programs, then they will mostly no longer be differentiable—these programs will still use continuous geometric layers as subroutines, which will be differentiable, but the model as a whole won’t be. As a result, using backpropagation to adjust weight values in a fixed, hardcoded network can’t be the method of choice for training models in the future—at least, it can’t be the entire story. We need to figure out how to train non-differentiable systems efficiently. Current approaches include genetic algorithms, evolution strategies, certain reinforcement-learning methods, and alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM). Naturally, gradient descent isn’t going anywhere; gradient information will always be useful for optimizing differentiable parametric functions. But our models will become increasingly more ambitious than mere differentiable parametric functions, and thus their automatic development (the learning in machine learning) will require more than backpropagation.', 'In addition, backpropagation is end to end, which is a great thing for learning good chained transformations but is computationally inefficient because it doesn’t fully take advantage of the modularity of deep networks. To make something more efficient, there’s one universal recipe: introduce modularity and hierarchy. So we can make backpropagation more efficient by introducing decoupled training modules with a synchronization mechanism between them, organized in a hierarchical fashion. This strategy is somewhat reflected in DeepMind’s recent work on synthetic gradients. I expect more along these lines in the near future. I can imagine a future where models that are globally non-differentiable (but feature differentiable parts) are trained— grown—using an efficient search process that doesn’t use gradients, whereas the differentiable parts are trained even faster by taking advantage of gradients using a more efficient version of backpropagation.', '9.3.3 Automated machine learning', 'In the future, model architectures will be learned rather than be handcrafted by engineer-artisans. Learning architectures goes hand in hand with the use of richer sets of primitives and program-like machine-learning models.', 'Currently, most of the job of a deep-learning engineer consists of munging data with Python scripts and then tuning the architecture and hyperparameters of a deep network at length to get a working model—or even to get a state-of-the-art model, if the engineer is that ambitious. Needless to say, that isn’t an optimal setup. But AI can help. Unfortunately, the data-munging part is tough to automate, because it often requires domain knowledge as well as a clear, high-level understanding of what the engineer wants to achieve. Hyperparameter tuning, however, is a simple search procedure; and in that case we know what the engineer wants to achieve: it’s defined by the loss function of the network being tuned. It’s already common practice to set up basic AutoML systems that take care of most model knob tuning. I even set up my own, years ago, to win Kaggle competitions.', 'At the most basic level, such a system would tune the number of layers in a stack, their order, and the number of units or filters in each layer. This is commonly done with libraries such as Hyperopt, which we discussed in chapter 7. But we can also be far more ambitious and attempt to learn an appropriate architecture from scratch, with as few constraints as possible: for instance, via reinforcement learning or genetic algorithms.', 'Another important AutoML direction involves learning model architecture jointly with model weights. Because training a new model from scratch every time we try a slightly different architecture is tremendously inefficient, a truly powerful AutoML system would evolve architectures at the same time the features of the model were being tuned via backpropagation on the training data. Such approaches are beginning to emerge as I write these lines.', 'When this starts to happen, the jobs of machine-learning engineers won’t disappear—rather, engineers will move up the value-creation chain. They will begin to put much more effort into crafting complex loss functions that truly reflect business goals and understanding how their models impact the digital ecosystems in which they’re deployed (for example, the users who consume the model’s predictions and generate the model’s training data)—problems that only the largest companies can afford to consider at present.', '9.3.4 Lifelong learning and modular subroutine reuse', 'If models become more complex and are built on top of richer algorithmic primitives, then this increased complexity will require higher reuse between tasks, rather than training a new model from scratch every time we have a new task or a new dataset. Many datasets don’t contain enough information for us to develop a new, complex model from scratch, and it will be necessary to use information from previously encountered datasets (much as you don’t learn English from scratch every time you open a new book—that would be impossible). Training models from scratch on every new task is also inefficient due to the large overlap between the current tasks and previously encountered tasks.', 'A remarkable observation has been made repeatedly in recent years: training the same model to do several loosely connected tasks at the same time results in a model that’s better at each task. For instance, training the same neural machine-translation model to perform both English-to-German translation and French-to-Italian translation will result in a model that’s better at each language pair. Similarly, training an image-classification model jointly with an image-segmentation model, sharing the same convolutional base, results in a model that’s better at both tasks. This is fairly intuitive: there’s always some information overlap between seemingly disconnected tasks, and a joint model has access to a greater amount of information about each individual task than a model trained on that specific task only.', 'Currently, when it comes to model reuse across tasks, we use pretrained weights for models that perform common functions, such as visual feature extraction. You saw this in action in chapter 5. In the future, I expect a generalized version of this to be commonplace: we’ll use not only previously learned features (submodel weights) but also model architectures and training procedures. As models become more like programs, we’ll begin to reuse program subroutines like the functions and classes found in human programming languages.', 'Think of the process of software development today: once an engineer solves a specific problem (HTTP queries in Python, for instance), they package it as an abstract, reusable library. Engineers who face a similar problem in the future will be able to search for existing libraries, download one, and use it in their own project. In a similar way, in the future, metalearning systems will be able to assemble new programs by sifting through a global library of high-level reusable blocks. When the system finds itself developing similar program subroutines for several different tasks, it can come up with an abstract, reusable version of the subroutine and store it in the global library (see figure 9.6). Such a process will implement abstraction: a necessary component for achieving extreme generalization. A subroutine that’s useful across different tasks and domains can be said to abstract some aspect of problem solving. This definition of abstraction is similar to the notion of abstraction in software engineering. These subroutines can be either geometric (deep-learning modules with pretrained representations) or algorithmic (closer to the libraries that contemporary software engineers manipulate).', '[FIGURE 9.6 OMITTED]', '9.3.5 The long-term vision', 'In short, here’s my long-term vision for machine learning:', '\uf0a1 Models will be more like programs and will have capabilities that go far beyond the continuous geometric transformations of the input data we currently work with. These programs will arguably be much closer to the abstract mental models that humans maintain about their surroundings and themselves, and they will be capable of stronger generalization due to their rich algorithmic nature.', '\uf0a1 In particular, models will blend algorithmic modules providing formal reasoning, search, and abstraction capabilities with geometric modules providing informal intuition and pattern-recognition capabilities. AlphaGo (a system that required a lot of manual software engineering and human-made design decisions) provides an early example of what such a blend of symbolic and geometric AI could look like.', '\uf0a1 Such models will be grown automatically rather than hardcoded by human engineers, using modular parts stored in a global library of reusable subroutines—a library evolved by learning high-performing models on thousands of previous tasks and datasets. As frequent problem-solving patterns are identified by the meta-learning system, they will be turned into reusable subroutines—much like functions and classes in software engineering—and added to the global library. This will achieve abstraction.', '\uf0a1 This global library and associated model-growing system will be able to achieve some form of human-like extreme generalization: given a new task or situation, the system will be able to assemble a new working model appropriate for the task using very little data, thanks to rich program-like primitives that generalize well, and extensive experience with similar tasks. In the same way, humans can quickly learn to play a complex new video game if they have experience with many previous games, because the models derived from this previous experience are abstract and program-like, rather than a basic mapping between stimuli and action.', '\uf0a1 As such, this perpetually learning model-growing system can be interpreted as an artificial general intelligence (AGI). But don’t expect any singularitarian robot apocalypse to ensue: that’s pure fantasy, coming from a long series of profound misunderstandings of both intelligence and technology. Such a critique, however, doesn’t belong in this book.'] | [
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41c15202ca4d6074abec361d3eb3ab578a552ddcf0177be8e0e5a54eba6f3273 | It'll never become autonomous | null | Dr. Oren Etzioni 16, Professor of Computer Science at the University of Washington, CEO of the Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence, Ph.D. from Carnegie Mellon University and BA from Harvard University, “It’s Time to Intelligently Discuss Artificial Intelligence”, Medium, 12-9, https://medium.com/backchannel/ai-wont-exterminate-us-it-will-empower-us-5b7224735bf3 | dystopian vision of AI is wrong it equates intelligence with autonomy but those are entirely different To say AI will do what it wants is like saying a calculator will start its own calculations AI tools require human directions autonomous programs are not intelligent . And highly specialized AI is not conscious sentiment is hypothetical as a i could end the human race they ignore reality emergence of a i over twenty-five years is far less likely | Hawking warns, “AI could be a big danger why am I not afraid? The popular dystopian vision of AI is wrong for one simple reason: it equates intelligence with autonomy . That is, it assumes a smart computer will create its own goals, and have its own will, and will use its faster processing abilities and deep databases to beat humans at their own game. It assumes that with intelligence comes free will, but those two things are entirely different To say that AI will start do ing what it wants for its own purposes is like saying a calculator will start making its own calculations Like calculators, AI tools require human input and human directions autonomous programs exist But they are not intelligent . And most is highly specialized ; the program that can beat humans in narrow tasks has zero autonomy Moreover, AI software is not conscious “Watson doesn't know it won Jeopardy!” Anti-AI sentiment is often couched in hypothetical terms, as in “The development of full a rtificial i ntelligence could spell the end of the human race .” The problem with hypothetical statements is that they ignore reality —the emergence of “full a rtificial i ntelligence” over the next twenty-five years is far less likely than an asteroid striking the earth and annihilating us | dystopian vision of AI is wrong entirely different like saying a calculator will start making its own calculations require human input and human directions intelligent highly specialized narrow tasks zero autonomy not conscious a i ignore reality a i far less likely | ['Tesla CEO Elon Musk worries it is “potentially more dangerous than nukes.” Physicist Stephen Hawking warns, “AI could be a big danger in the not-too-distant future.” Fear mongering about AI has also hit the box office in recent films such as Her and Transcendence.', 'So as an active researcher in the field for over 20 years, and now the CEO of the Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence, why am I not afraid?', 'The popular dystopian vision of AI is wrong for one simple reason: it equates intelligence with autonomy. That is, it assumes a smart computer will create its own goals, and have its own will, and will use its faster processing abilities and deep databases to beat humans at their own game. It assumes that with intelligence comes free will, but I believe those two things are entirely different.', 'To say that AI will start doing what it wants for its own purposes is like saying a calculator will start making its own calculations. A calculator is a tool for humans to do math more quickly and accurately than they could ever do by hand; similarly AI computers are tools for us to perform tasks too difficult or expensive for us to do on our own, such as analyzing large data sets, or keeping up to date on medical research. Like calculators, AI tools require human input and human directions.', "Now, autonomous computer programs exist and some are scary\u200a—\u200asuch as viruses or cyber-weapons. But they are not intelligent. And most intelligent software is highly specialized; the program that can beat humans in narrow tasks, such as playing Jeopardy, has zero autonomy. IBM’s Watson is not champing at the bit to take on Wheel of Fortune next. Moreover, AI software is not conscious. As the philosopher John Searle put it, “Watson doesn't know it won Jeopardy!”", 'Anti-AI sentiment is often couched in hypothetical terms, as in Hawking’s recent comment that “The development of full artificial intelligence could spell the end of the human race.” The problem with hypothetical statements is that they ignore reality—the emergence of “full artificial intelligence” over the next twenty-five years is far less likely than an asteroid striking the earth and annihilating us.'] | [
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f22a4f2c529298964ea7feb4aa3a4ee07b239d350b557cd6d761dfb9d051ef2e | Autonomous weapon development will be incremental and safe | null | Christopher Toscano 15, Navy Judge Advocate and 2014 LLM Graduate of the George Washington University Law School, “Friend of Humans: An Argument for Developing Autonomous Weapons Systems,” 8 J. Nat'l Sec. L. & Pol'y 189 (2015) | that possession of AWSs will lower barriers to war to justify belligerence arg s are flawed ignores the greater implications with war Tech never served as impetus for war power of opinion has grown loss of life through AWS can sway that all military tech made war easier ability to kill does not embolden or provide justification ability to kill at distances also true for missiles or cannon fire if has ability to develop AWS it has ability to develop nuc s Arg s that AWSs will lower barriers or embolden tyranny and terror are fatally flawed | Critics argue that mere possession of AWSs will lower the barriers to war fare nations will argue that using AWSs is a "safe" form of fighting that limits casualties, to strategically justify belligerence These arg ument s are flawed for two reasons First argument ignores the greater political , economic , and legal implications associated with war Tech nological superiority alone has never served as the impetus for war . If this were true, the U S would have engaged in expansive warfare simply for being technologically superior to other nations the power of public opinion has grown Any loss of life through AWS warfare on either side can sway that public opinion . So while one party to the conflict may enjoy lower causalities through technological superiority, that nation's populace may still disapprove when it sees the results. Secondly, all military tech nological advancements have made the process of war fare easier a weapon's ability to kill an opponent more effectively or from greater distances does not embolden terrorists or provide justification for war under jus ad bellum . Although AWSs offer the ability to kill at greater distances , that proposition would also be true for missiles or cannon fire . Similarly, if a terrorist or rogue state has the ability to develop an AWS , then it likely has the ability to develop any weapon , nuc lear bomb s included AWSs are simply subject to the same " general problem of disarmament " applicable to all weapons Arg ument s that the possession or usage of AWSs will in itself lower barriers to warfare or further embolden tyranny and terror ism are fatally flawed | mere possession lower the barriers to war fare strategically justify belligerence arg s flawed greater political economic legal implications Tech never served as the impetus for war simply for being technologically superior power of public opinion has grown Any loss of life can sway that public opinion may still disapprove all military tech nological advancements war does not embolden terrorists provide justification for war under jus ad bellum would also be true for missiles cannon fire develop any weapon nuc lear bomb s included general problem of disarmament Arg s in itself lower barriers to warfare further embolden tyranny terror ism are fatally flawed | ['Critics also argue that mere possession of AWSs will lower the barriers to warfare. Philosophy professor Peter Asaro argues that the aim of military technology is to develop tactical advantages while lowering combat risks and casualties.2 66 He contends that by reducing the negative consequences of war, governments with advanced technologies will be incentivized to start wars with other states.2 67 He further argues that every war begins with the actions of unjust nations, and that such nations will seek to use these technologies to impose their will on others.268 He states that nations will argue that using AWSs is a "safe" form of fighting that limits casualties, to strategically justify belligerence.2 6 9 Similarly, Sharkey argues that tyrannical despots or terrorists can use these weapons to kill civilians. 270 These arguments, however, are flawed for two reasons. ', 'First, Asaro\'s argument ignores the greater political, economic, and legal implications associated with war.2 7 1 Technological superiority alone has never served as the impetus for war. If this were true, the United States would have engaged in expansive warfare simply for being technologically superior to other nations. Moreover, the power of public opinion has grown through the Internet, as mentioned earlier. Any loss of life through AWS warfare on either side can sway that public opinion. So while one party to the conflict may enjoy lower causalities through technological superiority, that nation\'s populace may still disapprove when it sees the results. Secondly, all military technological advancements have made the process of warfare easier.272 In the eleventh and twelfth centuries, crossbows allowed a peasant to kill a professional knight more effectively and from greater distances.2 73 Because of this, Pope Urban II banned the use of crossbows in 1096, and other leaders ordered that captured crossbowmen were either to be dismembered or killed.274 However, a weapon\'s ability to kill an opponent more effectively or from greater distances does not embolden terrorists or provide justification for war under jus ad bellum. Although AWSs offer the ability to kill at greater distances, that proposition would also be true for missiles or cannon fire. Similarly, if a terrorist or rogue state has the ability to develop an AWS, then it likely has the ability to develop any weapon, nuclear bombs included. In essence, AWSs are simply subject to the same "general problem of disarmament" applicable to all weapons.2 75 Arguments that the possession or usage of AWSs will in itself lower barriers to warfare or further embolden tyranny and terrorism are fatally flawed.'] | [
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8a117558063f566e974e09fda25db75c6709f2546b568243a3b2bc07812d25ab | Even it can be scanned, it can’t be modeled. | null | Jobst Landgrebe & Barry Smith 23, Landgrebe is a scientist and entrepreneur with a background in philosophy, mathematics, neuroscience, and bioinformatics; Smith is one of the most widely cited contemporary philosophers, “Digital Immortality,” Why Machines Will Never Rule the World: Artificial Intelligence without Fear, 1st ed., Routledge, 2023, pp. 259–287, DOI.org (Crossref), doi:10.4324/9781003310105 | would require ability to simultaneously measure all neurotransmitters in all synaptic clefts and track and measure all the ion flux even if we achieve this , we still could not emulate these because mental experiences are collaboration of many cells depends on genome epigenetic modifications and molecular all shaped by experiences even if we had imaging we do not have models to interpret the data even if we could observe over 10^15 molecules at a resolution of a nanosecond over 10^21 data points per second we could not emulate the behaviour of cells , because no mathematical model could do this | translation would require the ability to simultaneously measure the amount of all neurotransmitters in all synaptic clefts and to track and measure all the associated ion flux even if we were to achieve all of this , we still could not emulate these activities in such a way as to relate them to the particular mental experiences of which consciousness is comprised This is because mental experiences are the result of the collaboration of many neurons and other (peripheral) cells For each cell, this configuration depends on the genome the epigenetic chemical modifications of the genome and the molecular configuration all of which have been shaped by the experiences of the organism since conception even if we had machines capable of imaging at the required resolutions, we still do not have mathematical models to interpret the resulting data . These data are measurements of processes which evolve in the complex system that is the mindbody continuum they measure directly the workings of this system, some of whose emanations we can perceive via inner experience . Even such direct measurement of the system’s workings would not improve our ability to emulate them we are not able to create a WBE even if we could observe the activities of billions of neurons with a totality of over 10^15 molecules at a resolution of a nanosecond which means we would obtain over 10^21 data points per second we could not emulate the behaviour of the collection of cells , because there is no way to build a mathematical model that could do this . One cannot emulate a system without modeling it , and in the case of complex systems there is no way to produce the needed model The project of creating a superintelligent being by copying without understanding fails | translation simultaneously measure all neurotransmitters all synaptic clefts track measure all ion flux even if we were to achieve all of this still emulate relate them to the particular mental experiences of which consciousness is comprised collaboration many neurons other (peripheral) cells genome epigenetic chemical modifications molecular configuration experiences of the organism since conception do not have mathematical models to interpret the resulting data evolve complex system mindbody continuum directly workings inner experience direct would not improve our ability to emulate them create even if we could observe over 10^15 molecules nanosecond over 10^21 data points per second could not emulate the behaviour of the collection of cells no way to build a mathematical model that could do this emulate modeling it complex systems no way to produce the needed model copying without understanding fails | ['The second step, translation would require the ability to simultaneously measure the amount of all neurotransmitters in all synaptic clefts of the brain and to track and measure all the associated ion flux and other biochemical and signalling events, all of which is technically impossible. But even if we were to achieve all of this, we still could not emulate these activities in such a way as to relate them to the particular mental experiences of which consciousness is comprised. This is because mental experiences are the result of the collaboration of many neurons and other (peripheral) cells, each of which contributes to the experience by exhibiting a certain behaviour which depends on its molecular configuration.', 'For each cell, this configuration depends on (i) the genome it carries in its nucleus, (ii) the epigenetic chemical modifications of the genome (the DNA and its carrier molecules), and (iii) the molecular configuration (involving some hundreds of thousands of molecules) of the non-nuclear parts of the cell—all of which have been shaped by the experiences of the organism since conception.8', 'We cannot obtain a view of the interior structure of the cell (its molecular configuration) via imaging, because live imaging techniques do not have a sufficient resolution at either the spatial or the temporal level.9 * But even if we had machines capable of imaging at the required resolutions, we still do not have mathematical models to interpret the resulting data. These data are measurements of processes which evolve in the complex system that is the mindbody continuum; thus they measure directly the workings of this system, some of whose emanations we can perceive via inner experience. Even such direct measurement of the system’s workings would not, however, improve our ability to emulate them.', 'In other words, we are not able to create a WBE; even if we could observe the activities of billions of neurons with a totality of over 10^15 molecules at a resolution of a nanosecond (which means we would obtain over 10^21 data points per second), we could not emulate the behaviour of the collection of cells, because there is no way to build a mathematical model that could do this. One cannot emulate a system without modeling it, and in the case of complex systems there is no way to produce the needed model.', 'And finally, there is the third step: simulation, which we do not discuss, since it relies for its input on the successful realisation of the first two steps, both of which are impossible.', 'The project of creating a superintelligent being by, in effect, copying without understanding, fails. But we note that, even if WBE were possible and a brainemulation without a body would indeed yield a ‘mind’, it would certainly not yield superintelligence, for it would at best emulate the intelligence of the copied mind. Bostrom explores how such ‘copies’ could then be ‘improved’, but we prefer to avert our readers’ eyes from the way he thereby adds yet more impossibilities to his pile. Instead, we have to face the fact that, when we die, the mind-body continuum ceases to exist, our mind ends, and six minutes after our last heartbeat or our last breath, our body has irreversibly lost the molecular configuration which enables it to function as an animate entity. It becomes a mere corpse—biological material that serves as nutrition for other organisms.'] | [
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b6b7124951e385fd0c5ee120a7bc90aa2ae31699cc55e92b229e806c9f30b8ab | It’s way cheaper to replace MOST of the crew and have them specialize. Full automation is an order of magnitude more expensive and pointless. | null | Marcus Hand 17, Editor, Seatrade Maritime News, “Autonomous shipping hype ignores the value of the human element,” Seatrade Maritime News, 11/28/17, https://www.seatrade-maritime.com/asia/autonomous-shipping-hype-ignores-value-human-element | much tech in the market is not new 20 years ago the ship c make all turns itself Why would you replace the human onboard – because you can? Supposing the crew can be reduced from 21 to eight savings would be one third of the crew cost It’s a drop in the ocean compared to what it would cost to automate everything, design wise and changing the basic technology the diesel engine cannot be operated autonomously due to high oversight and maintenance required a realistic view needs to be taken | much of the tech nology being touted in the market today is not actually new when I sailed 20 years ago and was a chief officer of containership with Maersk the ship c ould conceivably go from pilot station to pilot station by itself, it could make all the turns itself . The technology was there for 20 years for a lot of this stuff,” Why would you replace the human onboard – because you can? ” Supposing the crew compliment can be reduced from its current number of 21 to eight , with the higher level of education and training those eight would need to operate the sophisticated vessel of the future he argues savings would only be about one third of the crew cost It’s a drop in the ocean compared to what it would cost to automate everything, design wise and changing some of the basic technology the diesel engine cannot be operated autonomously due to the high degree of oversight and maintenance required a realistic view needs to be taken of how the industry can benefit from developments in AI. An example of area where rapid development is taking place is in broadband communications at sea. “Communications will see a huge leap forward in the next five years. In five years from now a ship will be as connected as any other office | not actually new conceivably turns there 20 years Why would you replace the human onboard – because you can? ” current 21 eight sophisticated future savings one third of the crew cost drop in the ocean what it would cost to automate everything, design wise and changing some of the basic technology diesel engine cannot oversight maintenance realistic view | ['A former seafarer he notes that much of the technology being touted in the market today is not actually new. “The reality is when I sailed 20 years ago and was a chief officer of containership with Maersk the ship could conceivably go from pilot station to pilot station by itself, it could make all the turns itself. The technology was there for 20 years for a lot of this stuff,” he explains.', 'While the potential capability has been there for many years for automation of vessels Hojgaard questions the business case and economics of replacing the crew. “Why would you replace the human onboard – because you can?” he asks.', 'Supposing the crew compliment can be reduced from its current number of 21 to eight, with the higher level of education and training those eight would need to operate the sophisticated vessel of the future he argues savings would only be about one third of the crew cost. That would equal roughly $350,000 or around $7m over 20 years.', '“It’s like a drop in the ocean compared to what it would cost to automate everything, design wise and changing some of the basic technology.”', 'In the case of say the diesel engine he believes this cannot be operated autonomously due to the high degree of oversight and maintenance required.', 'It is not that Hojgaard is a Luddite, far from it, but he believes a realistic view needs to be taken of how the industry can benefit from developments in AI.', 'An example of area where rapid development is taking place is in broadband communications at sea. “Communications is one of the area that will see a huge leap forward in the next five years. In five years from now a ship will be as connected as any other office – what difference does it make if you’re in Antwerp or on a ship,” he says.'] | [
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