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However, the economy was already hit by significant commodity price increases and the ongoing correction in the housing market in some euro area countries. 2 BIS Review 158/2008 After two negative quarters of economic growth, GDP growth in the 4th quarter 2008 and in the coming quarters will be very weak.

Israel broke the back of its hyperinflation in the mid-1980s with the aid of a fixed exchange rate but then made a gradual and successful transition to inflation targeting. And, of course, this argument provides no rationale for the use of fixed exchange rates by countries, such as the East Asian emerging-market countries, that have not experienced episodes of high inflation.

Lael Brainard: Transitions in the outlook and monetary policy Speech by Ms Lael Brainard, Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, at the John F Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 1 March 2017 * * * These remarks represent my own views, which do not necessarily represent those of the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee.

We should, however, also not forget that during the last two decades, industrialised countries have experienced a marked reduction in the average level of inflation and in the volatility of both output and inflation.

While the share of people who support the euro hit a low of around 60% during the sovereign debt crisis, that figure is now close to 80%.5 And the depth of this support has also been demonstrated at the ballot box whenever membership of the euro area has featured in national elections.

Looking forward But this success does not mean that our work is done. It means that we are now in a position to make the best choices for our monetary union – rather than about having a union at all. It is now time for the next chapter in the euro's story to be written.

So, instead of trying to achieve the impossible task of describing the precise policy response to any conflict, I will say something briefly about the framework we use in assessing the issue. An obvious but sometimes overlooked point is that ECB monetary policy is based on an comprehensive assessment of the outlook for price stability.

This is affected, but not solely determined, by movements in oil prices. To the extent that oil prices do alter the outlook for price stability, we try to look through the so-called first round impact, but try to counter any second-round impact. In the oil crises of the 1970s, we learned that we need to prevent an upward wage-price spiral developing.

Kaltstart – Volkswirtschaftliche Aspekte der deutschen Einheit. 3rd revised edition, Deutscher Taschenbuch Verlag. 3 Ibid. 4 Sinn, Gerlinde and Sinn, Hans-Werner (2015). Die deutsche Vereinigung als Vorbild für Europa? FAZ, 2 October 2015. 5 Sinn, Gerlinde and Sinn, Hans-Werner (1993). Kaltstart – Volkswirtschaftliche Aspekte der deutschen Einheit. 3rd revised edition, Deutscher Taschenbuch Verlag.

2 BIS central bankers’ speeches economic union between the two Germanys. And he feared that this would allow wages to remain above the market clearing level for too long.

From Bank Indonesia’s perspective, the macroeconomic condition in 2007 is expected to remain stable and will become the primary foundation to achieve higher growth, provided that micro risk factors and distortions in the real sector can be minimized and the investment climate improves significantly.

13 See Evangelos Benos, Richard Payne, and Michalis Vasios, Centralized trading, transparency and interest rate swap market liquidity: evidence from the implementation of the Dodd-Frank Act (PDF) , Bank of England, Staff Working Paper No. 580, January 15, 2016. 14 See Tobias Adrian, Michael Fleming, Daniel Stackman, and Erik Vogt, What's Driving Dealer Balance Sheet Stagnation?

Given the momentum in sales and expectations for a stronger pace of inventory building in the second half, the consensus is that growth will rebound in the second half to trend or above, though we have not yet seen the effects on spending of the rise in bond rates and the flattening of equity prices since the spring.

This should help to slow the growth of domestic demand. Although there is some risk that growth could remain above trend and therefore aggravate any initial excess demand, a major concern remains that the prevailing balance of supply and demand in the labor market might put upward pressure on inflation, even if growth slows to trend ahead.

As such, these labour market trends represent a key factor in preserving growth and inflation momentum in conditions where global demand may become a less dependable engine of growth. Factors warranting prudence We have therefore every reason to be more confident in the strength of the recovery than we were one year ago. But we cannot be sanguine over the economic outlook.

Besides the geopolitical risks that remain prevalent, there are indeed three factors that warrant caution: the profitability of euro area banks, the relative weakness of inflation dynamics, and the dependence of the recovery on accommodative monetary policy.

This tension between strict observance of antiquated rules and the imperatives to take timely actions and implement policies can only be resolved if an exhaustive review of the rules is undertaken. The fear of the PAC and NAB will otherwise end into a paralysis of decision making by the bureaucracy.

Institutional reforms Civil service reforms aimed at improving recruitment, training, performance management, career progression, right sizing of ministries and attached departments, and improving compensation for government employees are the reforms that have been initiated for building strong institutions in the country.

2 This thinking is similar to that called “forecast targeting,” which uses whether a forecast will reach the target rate as a judgment criterion. BIS Review 137/2010 3 including the accumulation of financial imbalances being overlooked.

But not only do we need cooperation between authorities of different countries. In my speech, I have mainly discussed how to reform regulation. But there is one thing we should be aware of: we cannot solve all of our problems through regulation. In order to reshape the world of finance, change has also to come from within.

This is consistent with the observation that when there is a typical amount of uncertainty, and the risks are evenly balanced, then central banks globally tend to follow a smoothed path and keep their policy rate unchanged or move in 25 basis point increments. There is another reason that the kōtuku is prominent in Māori culture.

In traditional Māori oral history, around 1000 years ago Kupe is said to have journeyed from Hawaiki, the ancestral homeland of Māori, to become the first person to navigate the dangers and challenges of Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa (the Pacific Ocean) and discover Aotearoa, New Zealand. The kōtuku is associated with Kupe in artwork capturing the significance of his journey.

Many new topics also joined the research agenda, such as: the misuse of the so-called originate-to-distribute model, in particular resorting to complex derivatives and other opaque products; the pro-cyclical nature of the existing capital regulation framework; the adequacy of financial regulation and supervision frameworks. Banks were forced to adapt their business models and management strategies.

Ukraine's continued cooperation with its international partners will remain one of the key factors in supporting the economy during the full-scale war and contributing to its recovery after the active phase of hostilities ends. Ukraine will continue to work closely with international financial organizations in 2023, including through the launch of a new IMF program to support macroeconomic stability in the country.

The NFCC was, in the beginning, strongly opposed to this telephone business model, primarily favoring face-to-face counselling as a more effective solution. Eventually, all organizations practiced both phone and faceto-face processes with some agencies using large inbound call centers driven by mass media advertising.

The Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005 made credit counselling a requirement for consumer debtors filing for bankruptcy in the United States. In order to meet this requirement, during the 180-day period preceding the filing of bankruptcy, the debtor must complete a program with an approved non-profit budget and credit counselling agency.

The use of statistics has increased manifold and the demand is for real time or near real time data on almost all aspects of life and economy. The System of National Accounts and the related accounting system on balance of payments, fiscal and financial statistics provide the basic framework for collection of statistics.

As the monetary policy responds quickly to emerging developments in the economy, and its effectiveness depends on market expectations, the set of data required for the same, like business expectations and inflation expectations, need to be collected through quick surveys. With increased globalisation and liberalisation of financial system, informed decision holds the key to successful implementation of policy.

We continue to pursue policy and supervisory enhancements relevant to cybersecurity. Even as we provide an enabling environment for technological innovations in the payments system, the BSP likewise is internally undergoing transformation by digitalizing its own payments processes and upgrading its organizational resources and capabilities. Recently, a unit dedicated to studying cybersecurity threats was established in the BSP.

To further facilitate the integration of the euro area and to complement the services of ACHs, last June the Eurosystem decided to develop an instant payments settlement system in central bank money, the Target Instant Payment Settlement (TIPS). Bank of Italy will be deeply involved in its development. Dramatic technological advances in the financial system are creating new opportunities for payment users.

To make matters a little more practical, I believe that you may examine one or two case studies and consider how to build cyber resilience into FinTech innovation. I am sure that you are also looking forward to learning how cyber-threats are addressed by the other central banks represented here and the latest developments in this regard.

Conclusion I encourage you to explore and share your ideas on cybersecurity candidly, and I wish you well as you work on the important details of collaborating on, and laying the foundations of, effective and efficient resilience against the cyber-threats of today and of the future. May you remain forever vigilant. Thank you. 4 BIS central bankers’ speeches

For examiners, those facts may be gleaned from a credit analysis and the review of credit files. Despite all the innovation and structural changes we have witnessed throughout the financial system, extending credit and limiting the volume of bad loans remain the primary business of banks.

Examiners will continue to need to evaluate whether a bank’s own internal assessment of its exposures is sound, which will by necessity involve a review of a sample of loans. In another, less appealing, way consultants and bank examiners are quite similar. In both cases the process can be obtrusive, with outsiders asking for scarce time and attention from bank employees.

The asset purchase programme will be extended to September 2018, at the lower amount of € billion per month, or beyond if necessary, until the Governing Council sees a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation consistent with its definition of price stability. This decision was made in an environment of robust demand growth, but with still modest increases in the underlying inflation rate.

In fact, the recent increase in intra-firm trading enables businesses to shift their activities across borders smoothly, thereby strengthening the response of economic activity to exchange rate movements in the long run. Asset price fluctuations and financial systems Asset price fluctuations have important implications for promoting more efficient resource allocations and achieving sustained growth in the long run.

For years we have been witnessing a trend characterised by: • Europeanisation and globalisation; • consolidation; and • computerisation of banking business. This trend is exceptionally complex and has gathered pace over the last two years. Also, I would like to discuss the implications for the structure and operating procedure of banking supervisors. II.

As is often the case, there appear to be many reasons which we must balance. The low inflation pressures are in part due to the slowdown in global economic growth, a regular cyclical event that central banks are well practiced in responding to. But there are also structural factors dampening inflation pressure and/or altering the impact of lower interest rates on investment and spending.

But today, it is people like me, and my colleagues in the Central Bank who have an important role to play. We have a responsibility to understand and help to explain the transitions that are shaping the world we live in, to assess the risks and to take action where we can.

I am convinced that, together, we will surmount the difficulties our economies are experiencing and that the G20 strategy for strong, sustainable and balanced growth will be successful.

In the advanced economies there is a determination to make sure that there is no risk of a repeat of the crisis and an acceptance that in practice this means financial institutions will be smaller and less profitable than in the past. Governments, central banks and regulators around the world are now busy constructing a new financial architecture.

New institutions and new regulations are being put in place. The structure of the financial industry itself is open to review, with some distinguished people questioning whether it is desirable to allow the combination of commercial and investment banking. Some fundamental questions are being asked about the type of financial system that can best serve the economic needs of society.

Green finance and inclusive green finance are issues that are very close to our hearts in Fiji, as we in the South Pacific are at the frontline in the war against climate change. Year after year, we are faced with the threat of stronger and more severe natural disasters, rising sea levels and the resulting negative impacts including the displacement of our communities.

2 Evidence-based policy can “work" 1/7 BIS central bankers' speeches One way to promote an evidence-based agenda is to show that evidence-based policy in fact works and that its challenges are common to many fields. Here are three examples from financial regulation and supervision.

Ensuring favourable financing conditions At our October monetary policy meeting, we announced that, on the basis of a thorough assessment of the economic outlook and the balance of risks surrounding it, we will recalibrate our instruments, as appropriate, to respond to the unfolding situation and to ensure that financing conditions remain favourable to support the economic recovery and counteract the negative impact of the pandemic on the projected inflation path.

* * * Over the past twenty years, the American economy has absorbed the major shocks of two stock market slumps, the terrorist attacks of September 11, and debilitating corporate scandals. But we have also been subjected to other shocks, the most immediately prominent ones being the oil and gas price surges of the past two years.

It establishes waiting periods and incompatibility conditions with respect to previously held political positions. It sets experience and independence requirements for the top officers of foundations and also of the banks in which they hold stakes. These indications must be made fully effective. They must also be strengthened by prohibiting passage from top positions in foundations to those in banks.

* * * I am grateful to John Ammer, Christopher Erceg, Joseph Gruber, and Beth Anne Wilson of the Federal Reserve Board’s staff for their assistance in preparing these remarks. I am happy to be here today, and I thank the organizers for inviting me.

The data released over the past two months or so accord with the view that the earlier soft readings on the economy were not presaging a more serious slowdown in the pace of activity. Employment has remained on an upward trend, retail spending has posted appreciable gains, inventory levels are modest, and business investment appears to have firmed.

At the same time, low long-term interest rates have continued to provide a lift to housing activity. Although both overall and core consumer price inflation have eased of late, the prices of oil and natural gas have moved up again on balance since May and are likely to place some upward pressure on consumer prices, at least over the near term.

But investing more, to increase capital or to boost productivity, will require other adjustments as well. More resources will need to be put aside to finance these investments. As individuals and families understand the challenges of aging, they may realize how much more savings they will need to maintain their standard of living throughout retirement.

In this regard, improving financial literacy can help promote these adjustments, through a better understanding of financial products and the important role of private savings. It will also be crucial to ensure that pension funds, and the financial system more generally, channel these savings into long-term productive investments.

However, I would like to emphasize that the quantitative and qualitative monetary easing and prudential policy do not conflict with each other and are consistent, and that the Bank’s thinking on the conduct of prudential policy remains unchanged. This thinking can be summarized into two points.

First, although the Bank expects financial institutions to actively take on risks under the quantitative and qualitative monetary easing, its basic stance remains unchanged, in that it will urge financial institutions to appropriately manage the amount of risks they bear relative to their financial strength.

“ ‘Real time’ early warning indicators for costly asset price boom/bust cycles: A role for global liquidity”, presented at the EABCN and CREI Conference on Business Cycle Developments, Financial Fragility, Housing and Commodity Prices, Barcelona, 21-23 November 2008. Allen, F. and D. Gale (2005). “From cash-in-the-Market pricing to Financial Fragility,” Journal of the European Economic Association 3, pp. 535-546.

Brunnermeier, M. and L Pedersen (2009). “Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity,” forthcoming in the Review of Financial Studies. Ashcraft, A. and T. Schuermann (2008). “Understanding the Securitization of Subprime Mortgage Credit”, Fed New York Staff Reports N. 318. Cassola, N., M. Drehmann, P. Hartmann, M. Lo Duca, and M. Scheicher (2008).

In this regard, one trend that we are continuing to monitor very closely is expectations regarding the future movements of official rates: in recent days, the short-term real interest rate curve shifted sharply upwards, signalling widespread perceptions of a particularly hawkish stance on the part of the ECB; this perception is not, in my view, warranted, given the attention we will continue to pay to the evolving cyclical outlook, which continues to be highly uncertain.

4 The increase in short-term interest rates has accentuated the rise, underway for some months now, of long-term rates, which play a key role in the economic activity of firms and households.

Ben S Bernanke: Central bank talk and monetary policy Remarks by Mr Ben S Bernanke, Member of the Board of Governors of the US Federal Reserve System, at the Japan Society Corporate Luncheon, New York, 7 October 2004. The references for the speech can be found on the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System’s website.

* * * A few days before the last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), I noticed a wire service story about the upcoming meeting with the following headline: “It’s Not What They Do, It’s What They Say.” The story alluded to the fact that, with a 25-basis-point increase in the federal funds rate target at the FOMC meeting being widely anticipated, financial-market participants planned to focus their attention instead on the statement that would accompany the announcement of the rate decision.

Historically, Canadian banks have benefited from diversification in their business lines, and the consolidated supervision of the banking group by the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions has been effective. 8 A lot of work remains at the international level.

It hasn’t been easy to agree on plans to coordinate cross-border recovery and resolution for global systemically important banks (G-SIBs), and not for a lack of effort and goodwill on the part of the home and host authorities.

These include: The conditions of the UK’s exit and type of trade deal which will emerge from the negotiations The resulting impact on the UK, and the extent to which this is transmitted to Ireland and Irish firms including financial institutions The many possible regulatory outcomes.

Fehmi Mehmeti: The financial sector was the main pillar of support for businesses and individuals Speech by Mr Fehmi Mehmeti, Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Kosovo, at the year-end press conference with journalists, Pristina, 24 December 2021.

Another study also based on cross section of countries reported that the negative effect of inflation was very pronounced and powerful at inflation rates exceeding eight per cent. What the appropriate inflation threshold beyond which costs tend to exceed benefits need to be estimated for each country separately.

Nevertheless, people worry about even moderate inflation levels because if not held in check, a little inflation can lead to higher inflation and eventually affect growth. 18.

The new set-up is headed by the Financial Stability Committee, which now combines the management boards of the BFC, the ISO and the NBB, alongside the Financial Services Authority Supervisory Board, which will combine the supervisory boards and council of regency of the various institutions.

These steady inflows of foreign exchange have built ample gross international reserves (GIR) to an all-time high of $ billion. As of end-August 2019, the GIR could cover 7.5 months’ worth of imports of goods and payments of services and primary income. It was 5.5 times the country’s short-term external debt based on original maturity and 4.0 times based on residual maturity.

Page 8 of 13 Within the universe of overnight deposits, it is proposed that all corporate call deposits of R20 million and larger be included in the benchmark calculation instead of just focusing on the top 20 corporate deposits. It is also proposed that the transactions of all banks be included rather than just the five largest banks, as is currently the practice.

With respect to Jibar, it is recommended that:  the current Jibar calculation methodology be phased out and replaced with a transaction-based rate, comprising a combination of negotiable certificates of deposit (NCDs) and non-bank financial corporate deposits; and  the current Jibar calculation methodology be changed such that the reformed Jibar is measured as a volume-weighted average rate of all the eligible transactions, to make the rate less sensitive to erroneous or potentially manipulative trades.

The Federal Reserve has supervisory and regulatory authority for bank holding companies and their nonbank subsidiaries, as well as for approximately 800 state-chartered banks that are members of the Federal Reserve System (state member banks), and certain other financial institutions and activities.

We work with other federal and state supervisory authorities to ensure the safety and soundness of the banking industry, foster the stability of the financial system, and provide for fair and equitable treatment of consumers in their financial transactions.

FIJICLEAR enables the processing of payments to be done as and when they happen – hence the term “real time”. It is an electronic way of making payments within a country and getting immediate settlement of those payments.

BIS central bankers’ speeches 3 Sometimes inflation targeting and financial stability are complementary. For example, if the economy is running above potential, creating inflationary pressures, while financial vulnerabilities are also building, then both considerations point to tighter monetary policy.

Some adherents of either type of Phillips curve argue that their preferred model can explain the behavior of inflation during and after the financial crisis. For example, Gordon (2013) presents evidence in favor of an accelerationist model, while Del Negro, Giannoni, and Schorfheide (2015) make this claim for a New Keynesian model.

To this end, it is necessary for not only the observed inflation rate but also medium- to long-term inflation expectations to be about 2 percent. If the observed inflation rate hovers around 2 percent on average and firms and households act on the assumption that prices will increase by about 2 percent, this will lead to price stability in the medium to long term.

As macroprudential instruments in the foreign exchange sector, Korea established the ceiling on foreign exchange derivatives positions and imposed a Macroprudential Stability Levy to curb the inflow of short-term capital and prevent sudden capital outflows.

Hyun Shin of Princeton University showed that the introduction of macroprudential policy tool targeting non-core liabilities in open economies could increase the maneuvering room for the monetary policy operation by reducing the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on the economic system. And in accordance with his view, the introduction of foreign exchange macroprudential instruments by Korea can be assessed favorably.

Authorities should look at a possible macroprudential approach, and consider adjusting the policy framework accordingly, however challenging this may seem. Although FinTech has not raised issues from a systemic risk perspective so far, the authorities need to be vigilant and constantly update their knowledge of how these activities are evolving, to harness the opportunities for innovation while keeping risks in check.

• It is stated that non interest income accounts for nearly half of all operating income generated by US commercial banks. In India, it is less than one-fifth.

In particular, regulatory measures represent an obvious candidate for suitable ex ante action. Nonetheless, it has been argued that central banks might prevent asset price bubbles in the first place by responding to asset prices over and above their expected effect on inflation.

This owes largely to the ability of derivatives and other modern financial products to unbundle complex risks in ways that enable each counterparty to choose the combination of risks necessary to advance its business strategy and to eschew those combinations that do not.

(ii) Wau Microbank Limited was licenced as a pilot project.

And I very much welcome the international community’s efforts to tackle this topic: this summer, the G7 finance ministers and central bank governors identified the regulatory treatment of sovereign debt as a major topic to work on. Also, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision has been working on sovereign debt for almost a year now.

The New Zealand economy initially expanded more rapidly than several of its major trading partners, fuelled at the outset by rapid export growth but sustained by strong growth in investment and consumption, and, later, by strong inward migration and an expansive fiscal stance. The prices of goods and services not exposed to international competition rose significantly faster than the average increase in all prices.

The Eurosystem will do its best to make them come to the fore with full force in the years to come. BIS Review 139/2008 7

7 While the physical land area of Australia has not changed, the ABS volume estimates for land have increased over time, reflecting improvements in land quality. The ABS assumes that the volume of urban land increases at half the rate of growth in the volume of overlying non-dwelling construction and one-third the rate of growth in the volume of overlying dwelling construction.

There is no change in rural land volume over time, with rezoning of rural land to urban use assumed to be offset by rural land improvements. 8 Currently, rural land accounts for just 6 per cent of the value of land in Australia.

Almost all the examples of financial distress mentioned so far occurred before stress in the commercial banking system became acute, and in most cases well before. For example, only three commercial banks failed in the United States in 2007, and commercial bank distress did not peak until the end of 2008 and later.

For example, the improved ability of banks to lend to more opaque borrowers should provide some increased competition for the venture capitalists and angel financiers that were discussed at the conference yesterday. The value of gathering information through the relationship between banks and small businesses also bodes well for the survival of small community-based banks that tend to specialize in these relationships.

Such a process leads to higher global economic growth, since countries with surplus savings can invest them in countries that do not generate enough savings internally. In an ideal world, markets for goods, services, and capital function efficiently. Funds flow from areas with excess savings to areas with excess investment opportunities.

In this ideal world, domestic labour markets operate without any barriers to the movements of workers. And there are no restrictions on the trade of goods and services or on the flow of capital across borders.

Could you give us your view of your eight years in office? Do you have any regrets or is there anything that you wish you had done differently? I have not gone yet and I have a very demanding task ahead of me in the remaining month and a half.

In his point of view, the integration process underway in our countries, considering the existing investment opportunities, can contribute to the success of the fight against poverty and underdevelopment. According to the Governor, the Southern Africa needs to be united in order to eliminate information asymmetries.

* * * These have been challenging times for the U.S. economy. Homebuilding and house prices have gone through prolonged and deep declines; the resulting broad pullback in financial markets from risk-taking and credit extension has transmitted some of the weakness in the housing sector to other types of spending.

At the same time, a substantial run-up in the prices of petroleum and other commodities has simultaneously increased inflation and damped spending on other goods and services. I don't need to tell you that challenging times for the economy are also challenging times for those entrusted with managing pension funds.

The crisis has taught us that no country can be an island and that economic and financial disruptions anywhere can cause ripples, if not waves, everywhere. The crisis also taught us that given the deepening integration of countries into the global economic and financial system, uncoordinated responses will lead to worse outcomes for everyone.

The global problems we are facing today are complex and not amenable to easy solutions. Many of them require significant and often painful adjustments at the national level, and in a world divided by nation-states, there is no natural constituency for the global economy.

I will provide you with an insight on the current economic situation and also elaborate on the latest measures which the Bank has announced under its ongoing Covid-19 Support Programme. Let me at the very outset give you an overview on where the global economy stands. What we are experiencing today are unprecedented economic conditions.

Major companies around the world have shown worrying signs of distress leading to rapid job losses. The ensuing implications on financial stability are serious. I must emphasise that there is still substantial uncertainty on how the pandemic will evolve and what will be the ultimate impact on economies. As you are aware the world continues to face an unmatched crisis.

However, where a restructuring arrangement is not achieved, the Insolvency Service of Ireland helps borrowers who are struggling to repay their debt and offers advice in reaching debt solutions with creditors. For non-engaging borrowers, resolution through the legal system is the most probable outcome.

Non-bank entities (regulated retail credit firms and unregulated loan owners) held 7 percent of PDH loans and 11 percent of buy-to-let (BTL) mortgage accounts as at the end of 2017. Within this aggregate category, unregulated loan owners hold 2 percent of PDH mortgages and 5 percent of BTL mortgages.

Term lending through securitization would continue, probably at a smaller scale, with more closely matched term wholesale funding provided by institutional investors such as mutual funds, pension funds and life insurance companies.

These changes to the rules for money market funds and repo instruments would increase the stability of the shadow banking system because term lending outside the safety net would be less dependent on “demandable” funding and more reliant on term funding, and the pricing of risk would better reflect the actual risk incurred.

Central banks in industrialized economies usually have just one responsibility, that is, conducting monetary policy with the single objective of maintaining price stability. In contrast, central banks in emerging and developing countries usually have several tasks in addition to monetary policy. These tasks include debt management, advising the government, and financial sector regulation and supervision.

As a consequence, these central banks have to pursue several objectives in addition to exchange rate stability and promotion of economic growth. At the same time, the resources of these central banks, in particular financial and human resources, often are limited. Therefore, cooperation and coordination with other central banks can be very beneficial for these institutions.

We will draw on this expertise in our delivery of the Comprehensive Assessment. I would like to spend some time on each of the three broad elements of the Comprehensive Assessment. Asset Quality Review Firstly, the Asset Quality Review. You are aware that this has begun and project delivery is well underway.

This assessment is broad and inclusive, comprising credit and market exposures (including a quantitative and qualitative review of hard-to-value assets, particularly those qualifying as level 3 assets), on and off-balance sheet positions and domestic and nondomestic exposures.

• Second, within a monetary union or with a fixed exchange rate system, the appreciation of the real exchange rate may take place through a higher inflation rate. • Third, as a consequence of the above, the inflationary process associated with the real exchange appreciation may fuel an inflationary spiral that entails an overshooting of inflation and a boom-and-bust cycle.

In this context, nominal convergence is not consistent with the continuation of real convergence and might imply large adjustment costs. How can these last developments be avoided? The key word is flexibility. Let me elaborate on this. First, there must be flexibility in the wage and price adjustment setting.

Those intermediate production and distribution activities, so essential when information and quality control were poor, are being reduced in scale and, in some cases, eliminated. These trends may well gather speed and force as the Internet alters relationships of businesses to their suppliers and their customers. The process of innovation goes beyond the factory floor or distribution channels.

Design times and costs have fallen dramatically as computer modeling has eliminated the need, for example, of the large staff of architectural specification-drafters previously required for building projects. Medical diagnoses are more thorough, accurate, and far faster, with access to heretofore unavailable information. Treatment is accordingly hastened, and hours of procedures eliminated.

), Background Studies for the ECB’s Evaluation of its Monetary Policy Strategy, ECB, pp. 127-138. Cogley, T. and T.J. Sargent (2001), Evolving Post-WWII U.S. Inflation Dynamics, in: B. Bernanke and K. Rogoff (eds. ), NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, The MIT Press, Cambridge, pp. 331-337. De Grauwe, P. (2002), Economics of monetary union, fifth edition, Chapter 8., Oxford University Press, Oxford.

Andreas Dombret: Issues at the IMF-World Bank Annual Meeting 2013 Statement by Dr Andreas Dombret, Member of the Executive Board of the Deutsche Bundesbank, at the Atlantic-Brücke, Washington DC, 9 October 2013. * 1. * * Introduction Ladies and gentlemen I would like to thank the Hodges family for opening their house to us and for inviting me today.

Central banks should therefore consider incorporating downward wage and price rigidity and non-linear Phillips curves into their macroeconomic models. See “25 Years of Excess Unemployment in Advanced Economies: Lessons for Monetary Policy”, Joseph E. Gagnon and Madi Sarsenbayev, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Working Paper 22-17, October 2022 10 See Schnabel, 2023 (op. cit.)

CHOGM Logo has replaced the musical instruments vignette, 2. A color shifting windowed security thread has replaced of the silver foil stripe and the embedded security thread. The colour shift is from green to red and is distinguishable when the angle of view is changed.

I believed that an attempt to resolve one of these firms – a firm with multiple business lines carried out through 6 See Ben S. Bernanke (2012), “Banks and Bank Lending: The State of Play,” speech delivered at the 48th Annual Conference on Bank Structure and Competition, Chicago, Illinois (via satellite), May 10.

BIS central bankers’ speeches 3 countless legal entities, across many jurisdictions and different legal systems – could easily spin out of control. The result could be greatly increased uncertainty for creditors and counterparties, which could trigger or accelerate a run on the failed institution that could quickly spread and destabilize the whole system.

Their central banks were able to keep control of inflation, by tightening monetary policy through raising interest rates or reducing money supply growth, as illustrated on slide 17 of Antionette Sayeh’s presentation. Good monetary policy can offset the pass through from the exchange rate to domestic prices. The key is tightening monetary policy in a decisive and timely manner.

The lesson I would draw is that a combination of a flexible exchange rate and a monetary policy which targets domestic policy objectives is feasible and probably optimal for macroeconomic management for most countries in the region outside of the currency zones. How robust are estimates of Government financing envelopes?

There have been previous attempts at modelling the flow-offunds. On the theoretical side, the sectoral balance sheet approach by Tobin (1969), Brainard and Tobin (1968) and others in the late 1960s remains the natural conceptual framework for examining portfolio choice and the interaction with savings behaviour and the real economy.

However, attempts to incorporate asset demands and balance sheets into fully-fledged large scale econometric models have faced recurrent set-backs over recent 5 See J. Stark “Enhancing the monetary analysis”, speech at the conference “The ECB and its watchers IX”, Frankfurt 7 September 2007 (http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2007/html/sp070907_1.en.html). BIS Review 108/2009 5 decades.

The slowdown in overseas economies and the appreciation of the yen in the second half of 2011 might have put additional downward pressure on business fixed investment in the manufacturing industry.

If confidence in future stability is to be ensured, now is the time to set out an effective fiscal exit strategy. 4 BIS Review 103/2009

That is the model underlying the famous demand and supply cross which everyone who has done an elementary economics course will have encountered. The seller hopes for top dollar, the buyer is looking for a bargain, and the auctioneer achieves a price that is within an acceptable range for both parties. Except when he doesn’t.

As you know, it often happens that an auction item fails to reach the reserve price, so this is not a complete answer to the question of the fair value. The auction is also not objective. The result depends on who attends, where and when it is held, the skill of the auctioneer, and many other factors.

"Is it possible that such “hands on” and “very successful” communication by many central banks with regard to maintaining financial stability have resulted in under-pricing of risks by the private sector, or in a distinct lowering of aversion to financial risks?

On this basis, it expects that the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI) is likely to increase gradually toward 2 percent, mainly on the back of the output gap remaining positive and inflation expectations rising, despite the CPI inflation rate being affected by such factors as the decline in crude oil prices for the time being (Chart 10).

The war has also abruptly worsened global economic growth prospects, at a time when the damage caused by the pandemic has not yet been completely repaired. Uncertainty has dramatically increased the world over, affecting the pillars supporting the international economic and financial framework in place since the Cold War, namely the peaceful coexistence between nations, market integration and multilateral cooperation.

The economic outlook and the impact of the war in Ukraine The progressive worsening of geopolitical tensions has significantly accentuated the rise in energy prices associated with the recovery of economic activity after the public health crisis.

The new bank guidelines have adequate arrangements for ring-fencing of the financial services activities of the Promoter Groups from their non-financial (manufacturing/trading/others) activities and addressed the issues concerning conflict of interests by prohibiting lending to and investments in Promoter Group entities.

RBI has also been vested with adequate powers through amendments to the Banking Regulation Act, 1949 to supervise these banks in a consolidated manner. However, it is yet to be tested whether the ring-fence would work effectively or could be circumvented. Therefore, we in the RBI need to be extra vigilant to protect the interests of the depositors.

Turning to the euro area, and given that the correlation between US Treasuries (USTs) and German Bunds has remained high (70%), the latter should follow USTs, but only drift 8 slightly higher from their low levels given modest inflation expectations, the euro area’s weak economic momentum and enhanced political risks. Thank you very much for your attention! 9

The resulting shortfalls in the coverage of billions of dollars of maturing paper were managed by rolling fails into the next day's settlement or by drawing on bank lines, causing bank assets to balloon for a few days.

I am very pleased to have the opportunity today to address the graduates of the Master’s programme in Money, Banking, Finance and Insurance at the Panthéon-Sorbonne University. I studied at this University in 1994 myself for six months – that is 28 years ago, and I have plenty of fond memories of that time.

Financial markets overall had improved somewhat, but tighter terms and standards in the mortgage market – particularly in the nonprime and jumbo segments--appeared likely to intensify the correction in housing significantly, with adverse implications for construction activity and house prices. Indeed, incoming housing data had continued to soften even before the advent of the stress in financial markets.

It seems evident that this evolution, which was later labelled the “Great Inflation”,2 was mostly driven by increasing oil prices.3 However, Germany – and also Switzerland – was a notable exception.4 German inflation rose from 5.2% in 1971 to 5.4% in 1980. The Bundesbank chose to tighten its monetary policy stance.

This policy resulted in significantly higher real interest rates in Germany, compared to other OECD countries. This helped the economy to grow in line with its potential. Moreover, on account of the associated appreciation of the D-Mark, the oil price increase had a more limited direct impact on inflation.

In the fall, bank commercial and industrial lending surged for a time (the red dotted line in the right panel of figure 4), reportedly reflecting, in part, substantial draws on previously existing long-term lending commitments; then such lending contracted sharply as access to other sources of funding, such as commercial paper, improved.

In this manner, bank loans provided at least a partial substitute for market-based funding until market functioning improved. That said, the growth rate for debt of nonfinancial businesses decreased sharply in 2008.

Second, you have the humility to seek consensus when others may be held back by ego, and the finesse to bring people to an agreement. This is Angela "the pragmatist". Third, you have the inner strength and conviction to defend your most deeply held values when they are most at risk. This is Angela "the moral force".

So let me explore these three qualities in more detail. The scientist You have spoken about the challenges of growing up behind the Iron Curtain, yet it instilled in you qualities that – seen from the outside – have been indispensable to your success.

For the transfer of technology from the laboratory to the farm, agricultural extension systems were organized, first under the Intensive Agriculture Districts Programme (IADP) and later the Intensive Agriculture Area Programme (IAAP). For a considerable period of time both the research and extension systems proved to be quite effective, but deteriorated later.

However, these simple metrics neither take into account any hedging arrangements nor the impact of any repricing on the value and cost of financial institutions’ liabilities.

An enterprise-wide approach is appropriate for setting objectives across the organization, instilling an enterprise-wide culture, and ensuring that key activities and risks are being monitored regularly. Clearly, there is always an opportunity to improve upon ERM strategies and maintain the proper discipline to implement them effectively.

[7] See RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) (2020), ‘Regulators Release Feedback on Financial Institutions' Preparation for LIBOR Transition’, Media Release No 2020-12, 8 April. Available at https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2020/mr-2012.html. [8] While there are limited exceptions where authorities are providing for legacy LIBOR contracts to be supported beyond this date, this cannot be relied on in general.

Strict segregation of data between intermediaries and the Eurosystem, as well as privacy-enhancing techniques, would ensure that the Eurosystem cannot link any visible data to the identity of a digital euro user.10 The fact that settlement is performed by the Eurosystem does not imply that we would manage the accounts of users.

In the future, the products that are developed based on members’ need, and are suitable for trading among institutional investors who have pricing and risk managing abilities will be registered at the NAFMII and reported for filing with the regulatory authority. Administrative exam and approval procedure will be abolished for such products.

That is an enterprise which we need to embark on together, the industry, the community of professionals active in the international financial centre, Invest Barbados, the Ministry of International Trade, the Financial Services Commission and the Central Bank. Finally, a word on the role the Central Bank plays.

Next month look out for the first issue of our new quarterly IBFS newsletter, to be published on our website. It will update you on all the latest developments affecting our IBFS sector. Our contributors are all leading players in the industry, and we invite anyone who might wish to contribute to be in touch with Neville Pollard at the Central Bank.

All in, the largest banks will have to hold at least seven times as much high-quality capital as they did before the crisis. While Basel III calls for these changes to be implemented over the next six years, banks are not waiting to rebuild confidence in their creditworthiness.

Since the end of 2007, major banks in the United States and Europe have increased their common equity capital by $ billion and their common equity capital ratios by almost 30 per cent. National legislation has now been adopted to implement the Basel III capital framework in virtually all G-20 jurisdictions. Canada was one of the first jurisdictions to implement it.

Is the ECB’s monetary policy ineffective? As is widely agreed, monetary policy affects the real economy, and inflation, with “long and variable” lags.

While monetary actions and communications tend to affect financial markets’ interest rates and asset prices almost immediately, their transmission to the financing conditions of households and businesses and, subsequently, to consumer prices, tends to be much more gradual as economic agents revise their decisions to consume and to invest slowly and, in some cases, infrequently.

The Chinese government is adhering to its zero-COVID policy; faced with a recent spike in the number of confirmed cases, it has been working to contain the spread of infection by carrying out city lockdowns. 2.

Current state of Japan's economy Taking into account the COVID-19 situation that I have just described, I would like to focus on three aspects of the current state of Japan's economy -- namely, private consumption, business fixed investment, and exports.

In Cleveland, for example, residents who once worked in manufacturing lacked the necessary skills to obtain other available jobs, particularly in the growing health care sector. To address this problem, the Cuyahoga County Community College designed an innovative program to help individuals with limited formal education enter health care through a nursing assistant training program.

The Central Bank will have power via regulations to rollout the SEAR to other sectors in due course. It is our intention to increase the scope of application of the SEAR over time, with lessons from the initial roll-out to be incorporated as the scope is extended.

In December 2000, the UN General Assembly adopted a resolution 55/188 in which it called upon countries to cooperate through the United Nations system by devising ways and means of preventing and addressing the illegal transfer of assets and repatriating illegally transferred funds.

I would like to thank BBVA for the invitation to participate in this conference, and to share my thoughts with you on the challenges for emerging economies in the current unique global scenario. I will begin my presentation by reflecting on the extraordinarily loose monetary stances in most advanced countries.

No, I don’t believe so. Firstly, the kind of increases in capital requirements you will see are an improvement of the rules in regards to risk sensitivity, which are very bank specific, depending on their business model. It is not an average increase of capital for all banks, as such. Second, the Basel implementation is spread over nine years until 2027 — nine years!

Are banks overplaying this? I think that most of them are overplaying it. You always need to look at whether risk sensitivities are considered adequately. But that is up to the supervisor. The rules in Basel are general abstract rules.

Increasing real interest rates thus indicated that further monetary easing was necessary despite the policy rates being close to the zero lower bound. [Slide 7: Eurosystem’s accommodative monetary policy] In the June 2014 monetary policy meeting, the Governing Council eased the stance of monetary policy.

Let me tell you a brief story about the Bewick’s swan. This swan has its breeding grounds in the Russian tundra and spends its winters in north-west Europe. Until around fifty years ago, it would typically spend winter in Ireland, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands.

The role of the 1973 oil shock in all of this was also important, but it should be remembered that inflation in Australia had already reached double-digit rates before the oil shock occurred.

The rise and fall of the Phillips curve The early to mid 1970s was a period of re-evaluation of the earlier conventional thinking about monetary policy, prompted by the experience of a number of years of rising inflation. It is interesting to focus on the nature of that re-evaluation because it remains relevant to policy today.

We have also begun using consumer testing of mortgage disclosures to help develop more-effective disclosures around product features and other terms that consumers need to know.

If the three-year bond yield target is credible to the market, then the Reserve Bank does not need to purchase many bonds at all to achieve the target. Indeed, that has been the case over the past month or so and the RBA has not needed to buy any bonds since early May.

The current standard of T+3 settlement in the Australian market compares unfavourably with many other jurisdictions that have already progressed to shorter settlement cycles for OTC transactions in their domestic fixed income markets. A shorter settlement cycle will reduce the risks associated with settlement, in particular, counterparty risk.

Market makers in OTC fixed income securities may particularly benefit from the reduced period of counterparty exposure, as any given trade will count towards internal credit limits for a shorter period of time. This could boost market turnover and trading capacity for participants.

The general consensus is that while technology may displace workers in some firms or industries, the productivity gains and resulting welfare benefits imply that new industries emerge and overall employment continues to rise.

There could of course be huge inter-temporal factors that complicate the picture with long delays and lags between the destruction of a job in one sector and the emergence of new jobs in other sectors. There are also distributional effects which have to be considered.

For the postrecession period as a whole, low levels of resource utilization surely accounted for a substantial part of the weakness. But resource utilization has increased dramatically since 2009, and core price inflation has remained quite low. A sizable decline in import prices over the past year has also contributed.

As a result of the sharp increase in the dollar over the past year or so, prices for non-oil imports fell at an annual rate of a little over 4 percent in the first half of the year and look to decline a further 2 percent at an annual rate over the second half.

The Governing Council of the ECB has cut its policy interest rate by 225 basis points cumulatively since last summer. This substantial fall in rates over the last few months has been a response to reduced inflation risks at a time of deteriorating economic and financial developments in the euro area.

A wider range of nonbank institutions, BIS Review 6/1998 -6- including viable debt and equity markets, are important safeguards of economic activity when banking fails. 8. Inadequate legal structures Finally, an effective competitive market system requires a rule of law that severely delimits government’s arbitrary intrusion into commercial disputes. Defaults and restructuring will not always be avoidable.

A similar but more moderate pattern was present for fiscal 2014. The chart indicates that a divergence of views was also present among economists for fiscal 2014 and 2015. Next, a comparison was made between the average of the economists’ forecasts and the median of the Bank’s Policy Board members’ forecasts.

Previously, regulators were mainly concerned with the supervision of banks and the oversight of payment systems. Now they have to contend with a much broader universe (which includes non-bank participants in the financial markets) and consider shadow-banking, how it affects the financial system and financial stability, and how to regulate these activities. The focus, however, is no longer narrowly on prudential regulation.

In addition, Holston, Laubach, and Williams (2016) find significant but somewhat smaller declines in equilibrium rates for the euro area, Canada, and the United Kingdom (see Kathryn Holston, Thomas Laubach, and John C. Williams (2016), “Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: International Trends and Determinants,” Working Paper 2016–11 (San Francisco: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, June), www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/wp2016–11.pdf).

17 For a discussion of the possible role played by these factors in explaining the current low level of interest rates in the United States and other advanced economies, see Lawrence H. Summers (2014), “U.S. Economic Prospects: Secular Stagnation, Hysteresis, and the Zero Lower Bound,” Business Economics, vol. 49 (April), pp.

Interest rates on term instruments are basically level on the whole. The Japan premium remains negligible. Yields on long-term government bonds are recently moving around 1.35-1.40 percent.

As for the yield spreads between private bonds (bank debentures and corporate bonds) and government bonds, while spreads between bonds with relatively high credit ratings and government bonds remain mostly unchanged, those between bonds with low credit ratings and government bonds seem to be expanding somewhat. Stock prices are recently starting to recover slightly.

On the other hand, imports decreased in nominal terms by 31% over the same period, accounting for roughly 3% of total Greek imports.

The long-standing ties with the UK are also reflected in the strong presence of Greek students and academics at UK universities and in general of Greeks working in UK firms, as well as in the notable presence of the Greek shipping community in London and, respectively, the large number of British nationals who live here, often having purchased holiday homes in our country.

4 Credit risk is improving. The flow of new non-performing loans (NPLs) has been decreasing since 2014. It is now about 2 per cent of total loans, below the pre-crisis average (Fig. 2).

• The monitoring of the Governor’s performance by the board to ensure that the Governor acts in a collegial manner, and has proper regard for the wide range of advice and input which is obtained from sources internal and external to the Bank. • The transparency provisions which ensure a close external scrutiny of the Governor’s decisions including, importantly, by financial markets.

China’s economic growth is close to the potential output, which means that the former is actually approaching the latter. Hence it is safe to say that resource mobilization and economic mobilization in China are relatively efficient, and our unemployment rate is not high and few resources are left idle. Meanwhile, China’s economic growth remains resilient.

Over the past 12 quarters, the economic growth rate has ranged between 6.7% and 6.9%. The overcapacity problem has been evidently alleviated, and a basic balance has been achieved between the supply and the demand. As you can see, there is a blue line and a red line in this figure.

From an annual average growth rate of 3.5 per cent during 1950 to 1980, the growth rate of the Indian economy accelerated to around 6.0 per cent in the 1980s and 1990s. In the last four years (2003-04 to 2006-07), the Indian economy grew by 8.6 per cent.

In 2005-06 and 2006-07, it had grown at a higher rate of 9.0 and 9.4 per cent, respectively. There is, thus, tangible evidence of self-accelerating growth. An important characteristic of the high growth phase of over a quarter of century is resilience to shocks and considerable amount of stability.

Academic studies of the time consistency problem in monetary policy, such as the seminal work of Barro and Gordon, offered an insight into this issue, while empirical evaluations showing a correlation between central bank independence and greater price stability provided compelling supporting evidence. By the early 1990s, the benefits of central bank independence had become conventional wisdom.

An increasing number of central banks achieved greater institutional independence. This world-wide trend was reflected in the Maastricht Treaty, which made the ECB one of the most independent central banks in the world. Assigning responsibility for an important public policy to an independent institution needs to be accompanied by a transparent and accountable policy framework.

We need to continue to find ways to minimize the pain of dislocation without standing in the way of economic growth and change. Indeed, the willingness to embrace difficult challenges is a defining characteristic of the American people.

With our strong institutions, deep capital markets, flexible labor markets, technological leadership, and penchant for entrepreneurship and innovation, no country is better placed than the United States to benefit from increased participation in the global economy.

But since the inception of the euro we have constantly asked the governments individually and collectively to live up to their responsibilities. As I said, we fought to defend the Stability and Growth Pact in 2005 when three main euro area countries wanted to water it down.

And since then we have been giving the Eurogroup detailed information on the evolution of the competitiveness of member states and we are calling for rigorous monitoring of fiscal and economic policies. 8. In your opinion then, national governments are to blame for the current situation. Let’s talk about Italy.

Clearing members need a full and detailed understanding of their risk exposure to CCPs, which means that clearing members must have detailed and appropriate information on stress-test results, the specification and application of margin models, and the sizing of default funds to cover losses.

The World Bank defined sustainable economic development as a situation under which extreme poverty is reduced to such an extent that the number of people making a living on less than $ per day will eventually be lowered to less than 3 per cent of the total global population by 2030.

The economic dynamics in Germany have been additionally slowed by a sharp increase in the level of taxes and social contributions in order to finance the burden of reunification. Moreover, the process of interest rate convergence during the changeover to the euro is likely to have been one factor impeding growth in Germany in relation to the rest of the euro area.

As a result of this convergence Germany lost its former interest rate advantages and competition for investment became more fierce. Beyond these specific German conditions, a Solow growth decomposition shows that labour made a considerably greater contribution to economic growth in the USA compared with Germany.