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And in Europe, it has been a few years now since the underlying problems last erupted. Globally, monetary policy remains accommodative, there has been a lot of financial system repair and fiscal policy is no longer contractionary. This is all helping. So we are in a better position than we have been for some time.

After all, economists are still debating the events surrounding the Great Depression three-quarters of a century after it ended. Indeed, I would argue that none of us have the economic theory exactly right. That is why I believe it is useful and important that policy discussions include a healthy debate with different perspectives clearly represented.

At the same time, the gradual adaptation of Ukraine’s economy and the psychological shock giving way to the economic decision-making logics of businesses and households require changing the approach to monetary policy. Under such conditions, insufficient yields on hryvnia assets increase the threat that economy dollarization might rise and the financial system might lose respective resources.

Depreciation expectations of households and businesses are not stable and are susceptible to war developments, in particular to changes on the frontline and other situational factors. As a result, the NBU has increased its interventions to sell foreign currency. Amounting to around USD 2 billion in March and April, the interventions reached USD 3.4 billion in May.

Jerome H Powell: Government securities settlement Opening remarks by Mr Jerome H Powell, Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, at the Evolving Structure of the US Treasury Market: Second Annual Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City, 24 October 2016.

* * * This panel will focus on the settlement infrastructure for U.S. government securities—a vital component of the Treasury market and one that is undergoing an important transition. This segment of the industry has been in a period of slow but steady consolidation for several decades now.

A brief look at the academic literature on the relationship between competition and stability in banking confirms this. Survey studies on the relationship between banking competition and stability tend to find that both theory and empirical evidence illustrate cases of complementarities between competition and stability as well as cases of trade-offs. Some influential studies, however, may overstate the trade-offs.

In this difficult situation, what we need here in Europe is a strong EU – not only to stand up for our 5 / 10 BIS central bankers' speeches own interests at the negotiating table, but also to preserve and refine the multilateral rules-based trade order. Tuesday saw the European Commission present a concept paper for reforming the World Trade Organization (WTO).

But as the demand for cash has not yet taken full shape, it is too early to assess whether the cash changeover will have a long-term impact on the use of cash by the general public and, if so, in which direction.

Certainly, a number of domestic as well as foreign factors will play a role in the longer-term demand for euro banknotes: First, with regard to domestic demand, the introduction of the single currency itself has facilitated the use of cash across the euro area countries.

I always like to open a new bank – • It is good for aspiring staff • It encourages others to do better • It is good for competition in the high street • It is good for customers • And it is good for the country There is much goodness in new banks.

Before exploring, towards the end of my remarks, possible opportunities stemming from this changing global landscape, as we cast our eyes out to 2020, I will briefly share with you how we at the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) have been thinking about and approaching these challenges.

As regards the projection of fiscal movements, in 2017 consolidated deficit is expected to be at a level similar to that in 2016, despite the wage and pension increase and higher capital expenditures, mainly due to the continued rise in tax revenues. In late 2016 public debt was lower than in late 2015 (a year prior relative to the initial projection).

If these statistics are compiled in accordance with international standards, international comparability of these statistics will be improved. It is for these reasons that the Bank is revising Japan’s flow of funds accounts.

The interest rate increases seen to date, and the prospects for more increases to come in some countries, have been associated with somewhat increased volatility in financial markets, as investors adjust their expectations about future growth. This withdrawal of liquidity is completely appropriate, given that the global economy is now likely not too far away from the limits of its capacity.

The process of preparing and executing both federal and local budgets has been substantially improved. At the beginning of 2004, the Stabilization Fund of the Russian Federation was set up. The Stabilization Fund receives the part of the taxes, paid to the federal budget by producers and exporters of crude oil. This part is the result of the high world oil prices.

A particularly popular type of defined contribution plan is the 401(k), which lets workers make pre-tax contributions to retirement accounts through payroll deduction. Twenty-five years ago, such plans did not exist. Today, they cover more than 40 million workers, take in $ billion in annual contributions, and hold assets of about $ trillion.

As a result, the official sector has had to step in to support LIBOR by securing a voluntary agreement with the remaining banks to continue submitting through 2021. At the same time, the official sector has convened national working groups to help develop alternative risk-free rates and navigate a very complicated transition. Many people have used reference rates with little thought.

* * * Monetary Board Members; Mr. Vicente Castillo, CEO, Philippine Dealing System Holdings Corp; Mr. Ramon Sy, President, Bankers Association of the Philippines; guests from our partners in the banking sector; BSP officials; our friends from the media; ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon!

Today’s MOA signing is another landmark in our joint efforts to provide an integrated national payments and settlements system. As partners in the financial reform agenda, we have all vigorously worked together to have the various pieces of the payments puzzle be put together.

At the moment, it is possible that we could start this second phase in December of this year – this is the guidance of the EU Council, but for it to happen substantial progress has yet to be made on several fundamental issues such as the rights of EUcitizens in the UK after Brexit.

The Fed stated the purpose of purchasing longer-term Treasury securities is “to help improve conditions in private credit markets” in March 2009; the BOE conducts its purchase of gilts as a means of “Quantitative Easing.” However, the BOJ has been conducting outright purchases of Japanese governments bonds as a traditional tool of market operation, to provide longer-term liquidity.

Lord Meghnad Desai, Professor Emeritus, London School of Economics; Shri Rana Kapoor, Managing Director & CEO, Yes Bank and President, ASSOCHAM; Shri Sameer Kochhar, Chairman, SKOCH Group; members of the print and electronic media; ladies and gentlemen!

Transparency introduces predictability and helps to ensure that expectations are consistent with the objective of price stability, thus lowering the cost of achieving the inflation target. As pointed out by prominent economists many years ago, monetary policy should avoid exacerbating fluctuations of output and employment by introducing unnecessary uncertainty.

This is a point which needs to be driven home very strongly. 15. In 2008, when the global financial crisis (GFC) happened, multilateralism was at the forefront of global discourse. Ten years later, today, when there is a global slowdown, it is no more the dominant theme – bilateralism has overtaken the multilateral sentiment.

This year, particularly, in line with the latest trends in payment and settlement innovation, we will focus on getting ourselves fully ready for the shift of our retail payment system to a real-time gross settlement (RTGS) method and for the launch of a central bank digital currency (CBDC).3 We must also change the way we conduct our internal management in an effort to adapt to the structural changes of the environment that I mentioned earlier.

As President of the ECB, let me in particular highlight the fact that the euro indeed acted as a strong catalyst for the further integration of European financial markets.

With the benefit of hindsight, however, some argue that policymakers here and around the world took out too much insurance. Nonetheless, it ultimately allowed us to avoid the long-term scarring effects on employment that had been a hallmark of previous recessions.

In a sense, the German experience between the two world wars demonstrates how painful deviations from price stability can be – both in economic and in political terms.

Second, “macroeconomic environment”: the decline in the ranking is even more pronounced than that of “infrastructure”, from 22 in 2008/09 to 82. I would, however, suggest that this probably exaggerates any underlying deterioration.

Indeed, bank deposits have been amongst the fastest growing asset classes for the superannuation sector over recent times. As a result of these developments, super funds currently hold $ billion of liabilities issued by banks, representing 15 per cent of the banking sector’s total liabilities.

We do not know for sure which particular component of the long-term bond yield – the real interest rate, expected inflation or risk premia – determines volatility. Thus, the informational value of these measurements is limited. Third, financial market prices give us insights into the expectations of market participants with regard to monetary policy action. EURIBOR rates are especially helpful in this respect.

The lack of observable market prices, differences in modeling assumptions, expectations of future events and market conditions, as well as customer behavior make the task of assigning appropriate valuations very difficult. Certainly, a non-complex instrument that is highly liquid with an observable market price is easier to value with more precision than a highly complex, illiquid instrument.

In today's world, with the myriad of complex financial instruments that exist and are constantly being created, developing verifiable and auditable fair value estimates is a major concern. And because fair value models are forward looking, the auditor has an additional challenge of determining the line between normal variability in expectations that surrounds any forecast and earnings manipulation.

The subsequent fall in commodity prices was associated with relatively low growth of wages over recent years which, alongside some depreciation of the exchange rate, is helping to restore earlier levels of competitiveness. 5 • Wages may have become more flexible over time. It may be that there has been some general shift in the bargaining power of labour.

“More Law Degrees for Women, but Fewer Good Jobs,” New York Times, November 30. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (2016). “PF2.2: Use of Childbirth-Related Leave by Mothers and Fathers,” OECD Family Database, last updated January 3, www.oecd.org/els/family/PF2-2-Use-childbirth-leave.pdf. Thévenon, Olivier (2013). “Drivers of Female Labour Force Participation in the OECD,” OECD Social, Employment, and Migration Working Papers No. 145.

This has raised expectations of a possible reprofiling of the Promissory Notes, on which the Government makes an annual payment of € billion, or 2 per cent of GDP. Agreement that results in a more favourable time profile of payments would improve the 14 See “Rettung für den Musterknaben”, Der Spiegel, January 7, 2013, p. 28.

15 For the 29 June EU Summit Statement, see: http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_data/docs/ pressdata/en/ec/131359.pdf. For information on the Outright Monetary Transactions programme, see: http://www.ecb.int/press/pr/date/2012/html/pr120906_1.en.html. BIS central bankers’ speeches 7 Government’s fiscal position and greatly enhance its ability to regain full access to the markets. 5. Conclusions Ireland has undergone a disastrous boom-bust cycle in the last the decade.

Many people here will have taken an Uber or Lyft, and then paid your driver without relaunching the app, much less reaching for your wallet. Similarly, payment providers can now leverage the application programming interfaces (APIs)—essentially the protocols—of smartphone messaging services to integrate their payment tools directly into messaging applications: Nowadays, consumers can simply “attach” money while messaging a friend.

Innovation in retail payments can also offer tangible benefits to consumers beyond convenience. Improvements in security, such as our ability to authenticate consumers and detect fraudulent transactions, are also possible through innovation.

And you also enjoyed using art to open the doors to the Bundesbank. One example was the time you inaugurated the freshly restored fountain designed by Emil Cimiotti, a sculptor and native of Lower Saxony, situated in the Brunnenhof courtyard on Baringstrasse.

In your speech, you stressed that too much water from the fountain can be harmful, specifically if it’s left to spray out unchecked, while too little water robs the fountain of its vitality. With these musings on the nefarious effects of too little and too much, perhaps you also had monetary policy in mind, too.

The result was a significant loss of central bank independence, which in the United States happened as early BIS central bankers’ speeches 1 as 1933 as a part of Roosevelt’s New Deal policies, and in the United Kingdom and France immediately after the war, when the Bank of England and Banque de France were nationalised.

New policy instruments emerged as central banks were assigned broad regulatory powers over foreign capital movements, retail banks’ interest rates and the investment of banks’ asset portfolios . Financial market regulation was tightened, but there was little need for active financial stability policy as understood today, given the high level of stability of banking systems overall. Occasional balance-of-payment crises still took place, however.

Amando M Tetangco, Jr: The 2006 BSP praise awards – a harvest of excellence Speech by Mr Amando M Tetangco, Jr, Governor of the Central Bank of the Philippines (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas), at the 2006 BSP Praise Awarding Ceremony, Manila, 25 July 2007.

The requests were carefully screened and scrutinized against a set-out selection criteria, which is categorised into: production efficiency and scalability; local content capacity; job creation and human capital development; operating sector relevance; and potential contribution to economic growth.

We have definitely not exhausted all our options. We have scope to take further action, and we will take further action should it become necessary. But it’s also clear, as I said, that the negative side effects are becoming ever more pronounced.

In conclusion, I would like to come back to the theme of intellectual openness in the context of changing role of institutions.

Unfortunately, microeconomic evidence on the link between housing wealth and consumption is much more limited. But the substantial gains in housing wealth that have been experienced in recent years and the disparate movement of house and equity prices make this an issue of both policy and academic interest. I hope that future analyses will add to our understanding of this linkage.

The Joint Forum has taken some initiatives in this direction, which may have to be pursued further to achieve parity in the level of regulatory burden across the three sectors, which compete amongst themselves for the business of financial intermediation.

Long stretches of unemployment can damage or end workers’ careers as their skills lose value and professional networks dry up, and leave families in greater debt.4 The loss of thousands of small- and medium-sized businesses across the country would destroy the life’s work and family legacy of many business and community leaders and limit the strength of the recovery when it comes.

These businesses are a principal source of job creation—something we will sorely need as people seek to return to work. A prolonged recession and weak recovery could also discourage business investment and expansion, further limiting the resurgence of jobs as well as the growth of capital stock and the pace of technological advancement.

My third and fourth examples are very recent – just two months ago, two Venetian banks were liquidated under Italy’s national insolvency regime. So, within a short space of time, we have seen three different approaches to dealing with struggling banks in the euro area.

But to better understand what has happened in the economy over the past year or so, I will place my comments in the context of longer-term economic trends. The Adjustments of the 1990s Let me start by recalling the state of our economy as the 1990s began.

There also needs to be policy coherence and less regulatory uncertainty. If we are to succeed in reducing unemployment, we must have a growing, competitive economy. Competitiveness is not simply about the exchange rate; it is a multidimensional concept.

These dimensions include the quality of goods and services produced, reliability of delivery, reliable and appropriate infrastructure, appropriate technologies, appropriate and sufficient skills, the ease of doing business, and the minimisation of red tape. Our financial sector is regarded as one of the most efficient in the world, and we have a sound legal framework.

The coalition is a national leader among organizations that work to improve financial education for students from kindergarten through college. Its programs provide students with the knowledge and skills they need to make informed decisions that will have a positive impact on their economic well-being.

The stability created by the euro already extends beyond the euro area: The non-euro area EU Member States, many Eastern European, Middle Eastern and African countries are positively affected by the euro as well. The euro is a key currency for monetary policy in many countries. In 2006, 25% of all official foreign exchange reserves worldwide were held in euro.

Yves Mersch: Economic and legal limits of central banking Keynote speech by Mr Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, at the IMFS (Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability) Conference on Monetary and Financial Stability, Frankfurt am Main, 26 November 2013.

First of all, I would like to welcome all the representatives of the European Central Bank and the partner Central Banks included in the Program – Deutsche Bundesbank, Eesti Pank, Bank of Greece, Banco de España, Banque de France, Banca d’Italia, Oesterreichische Nationalbank and Banka Slovenije, then, the representatives of the Delegation of European Commission in BH and the Resident Program Coordinator, Mr. Santiago Fernandez de Lis.

Some of the gain in foreign growth is cyclical, but some is due to economic reforms (in both industrial and nonindustrial countries) and thus may be more persistent. Overall, we have seen some modest indications of improvement in the U.S. external balance recently.

To be sure, economic knowledge does not evolve in a straight path and setbacks are inevitable and unfortunate - the monetary policy failures of the 1930s and those of the 1970s are powerful reminders of that.

An example is the Asian Bond Fund II project, being developed by the 11 central banks of EMEAP economies, where EMEAP central banks will jointly invest in local currency denominated funds. As regards the third point, central banks in the region are now firmly focused on price stability and there is considerable progress in financial system reforms in each economy.

These encouraging signals are, if anything, rather endogenous and market driven in their nature. Yet, if we are to seriously explore the possibility of a single Asian currency, strong political will is going to be essential at some stage. This is because, if the Asian economies are to achieve convergence at a high level, rather painful reforms are indispensable.

Various agendas in the Indonesia Payment System Blueprint (BSPI - Blueprint Sistem Pembayaran Indonesia) 2025 have also been accelerated, including development of BI-FAST as a real-time retail payment system available 24/7, along with interlinkages between digital banking and FinTech, as well as payment system regulatory reform. iv.

According to the latest labor market data from the Central Statistical Office, the unemployment rate fell to 4.9 per cent in the second quarter of 2012 from 5.8 per cent in the second quarter of 2011. More recent data on retrenchment notices suggest that employment conditions may have subsequently deteriorated.

BIS central bankers’ speeches 5 reputation for disciplined macroeconomic management, a reputation essential for sustained recovery of employment and incomes. 15 4. Promissory Notes The origin of the PNs (for Anglo Irish Bank, INBS and EBS) has been explained in section 2 above.

The PNs were created and provided to these banks in order to ensure that they complied with regulatory capital requirements. As liquidity drained from the system in the last months of 2010, these PNs became part of the collateral pledged by Anglo to the Central Bank of Ireland in return for the growing amounts of ELA that were being provided.

This can help build trust in the central bank and support public confidence in its decisions. That is not to say that a broad mandate is required for the central bank to speak in these terms, but I think it makes it easier to do so.

The second perspective is that a broad mandate can provide an extra degree of freedom in 2/4 BIS central bankers' speeches responding to economic shocks. This is especially so in the case of supply shocks, where output and inflation move in different directions.

Maybe it is appropriate in this context to recall the words of another great inventor, Thomas Alva Edison: “Genius is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration”. From my perspective, not being complacent means remembering that sound macroeconomic policies, pro-competition product market regulations and well-functioning labour markets provide a favourable environment for productivity growth. I will structure my remarks as follows.

First, I will present an assessment of the growth performance of the euro area. Second, I will focus on productivity developments in the euro area since the mid-1990s. Third, I will explain the role of economic policies in promoting productivity growth. Finally, I will conclude by explaining where, in my opinion, responsibilities for fostering growth and prosperity in the euro area lie.

Banknotes in circulation consist of the special Faroese banknotes, but the money stock is otherwise made up of bank deposits in Danish kroner. The international ISO currency code for Danish kroner is DKK. This currency code is also used on the Faroe Islands. The Faroese banks use Danmarks Nationalbank’s monetary-policy instruments and the Danish payment systems.

Danmarks Nationalbank’s decisions relating to monetary and foreign-exchange policy - including interest-rate decisions - apply fully and directly to the Faroe Islands. It must thus be concluded that the Danish krone is used as the currency of the Faroe Islands today.

Based on movements in the index of industrial production (IIP), growth in manufacturing activity accelerated to 11.8 per cent during April-August 2006 from 9.6 per cent in the corresponding period of 2005. In terms of use-based classification, all sectors, excepting consumer non-durables have exhibited acceleration.

Notably, growth in capital goods production accelerated to nearly 19 per cent, even on a high base, reflective of strong investment activity in the economy (Table 8).

The long term prospects for our economy depend on creating a business environment which is conducive to attracting investment by mid-sized companies on a large scale. If this sector is to expand to command a much larger share of the Uganda economy, which is necessary if per capita incomes are to rise substantially; thousands of new mid-sized companies will have to invest in Uganda.

The nature of diversification is that risks materialise more often, but each bank shares a smaller part of them. Inherently, internationally diversified financial institutions are in a better position to weather turbulent times.

Bank liquidity conditions in October 2021 were very loose, as reflected by a high ratio of liquid assets to deposits(AL/DPK - Alat Likuid/Dana Pihak Ketiga) at 34.05%, with deposit growth recorded at 9.44% (yoy), moderating on the previous period in line with the recovery of business activity and private consumption.

Bank intermediation charged into Demand and supply-side improvements are reviving the bank intermediation function. Demand for loans has improved, particularly from the business and consumption sectors, in response to increasing public activity.

In particular, we aim to keep the annual rate of consumer price inflation at the 2 per cent midpoint of a 1 to 3 per cent target range. This is the best contribution that we can make to achieving high, sustainable growth of output and employment. To be clear, inflation targeting is not an end in itself.

Some of the possible dilemmas/challenges that the regulators would be faced with in future are: • Whether payment and settlement would remain banks’ preserve? If not, what would be regulatory stance? • What would be the way forward in regulating virtual currencies?

I believe that the joint Eurosystem Information Campaign, the complementary information events scheduled by the Bank of Greece, as well as the programme jointly organised by the Ministry of National Economy and the European Commission will, by the end of the year, succeed in addressing the awareness gap which continues to exist with regard to the completion of the changeover to the euro.

IV A general conclusion that can be drawn from the previous sessions of this Conference is that the necessary technical preparations and operational adjustments for the introduction of the euro are progressing satisfactorily in the banking and the business sector. This, combined with the anticipated improvement in public awareness, seems to indicate that the transition to the euro will be a smooth one.

However, the responsiveness of consumption to disposable incomes and wealth does not appear to have changed, at least in a statistically significant way. There are two possible explanations for this observation. First, the growth of consumption of late could be affected by factors other than the stance of monetary policy.

The conference is structured around a number of presentations on three interrelated parts, each of which is dealt with in a number of presentations from different perspectives. The first part deals with the impact of international accounting developments on central banking, with particular focus on the interaction between accounting and financial stability.

I believe that tourism will continue to drive the economy in the next decade. We therefore need to nurture and protect this star performer to ensure that we exploit its potential. Building and construction The boom in the construction industry that started around 2002 is continuing largely at the back of the growth in the tourism industry.

The first is the effects higher tariffs would have on growth and inflation in the near to medium term. There are a number of important channels to consider, including the direct impact of tariffs on prices and growth, changes to financial conditions and effects on expectations and confidence.

This negative effect is explained by three factors: • Firstly, by the greater uncertainty over macroeconomic developments resulting from unsustainable debt paths.

Uncertainty leads to postponement of investment projects and a bias towards investments with short-term returns, at the expense of projects 2 BIS central bankers’ speeches which may potentially impact on economic growth, but whose returns tend to be long-term; • Secondly, by the increase in risk premia, which increases the economy’s financing costs and, in extreme cases, results in the interruption of financing; • Thirdly, by the fact that high debt levels constrain the counter-cyclical use of budget policy, which in the presence of hysteresis, may have lasting effects on the economy’s productive capacity, due to the depreciation of human capital and insufficient investment in physical capital.

Nevertheless, this signals the importance of swiftly coming up with a strategy, particularly at European level, that considers the problem of the diversification of energy sources, their storage and the identification of common resources for managing energy crises. Only this way will it be possible to coherently address a problem that will be difficult to solve through cyclical economic policies.

This is intended to avoid any confusion among the two sets of roles and to safeguard the ECB’s independence. In addition, the staff involved in carrying out supervisory tasks will be organised in separate Directorate Generals and be located in a different building once the staff responsible for monetary policy has moved to the new ECB premises.

For example, for some portfolios, losses reflected only the last year or two of results. Thus, the strong credit performance of recent experience was not balanced by higher losses at other points in the credit cycle.

Yves Mersch: The world economy transformed Remarks by Mr Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the European Central Bank, at the Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee Webinar Series, 25 June 2020.

A reasonable description of the present agenda is more along the lines of how the public finances can promote sound financial markets (see slide 2). Liquidity In turbulent times the price of liquidity increases.

The outcome could be lower or higher, depending largely on how quickly Asian countries resume their growth path. 1 2 See, for example, Bernanke (1983) and Romer (1993). See Llewellyn (1992).

Needless to say, banks are making efforts to improve profitability of their lending activities by enhancing the credit quality of unprofitable but viable companies through various supports. Nevertheless, there are a substantial number of non-viable companies. Furthermore, making progress in structural reforms in the economy and industries means, looking from the other side, a reduction of banks' unprofitable loans and non-performing assets.

Therefore, from a macro perspective, it is inevitable to a certain degree that banks' lending and balance sheet shrink in the process of structural reforms in the economy and industries. Also, for the purpose of restoring sound financial system, it is a necessary condition that banks put emphasis on profitability.

With concerns of potential souring of loans coming from both businesses and households, the BSP deployed a range of regulatory relief measures that include approaches that could support the treatment and management of affected loans. The regulatory relief measures aim to encourage BSP-Supervised Institutions to grant a temporary grace period for loan payments or to restructure the loan accounts of their borrowers.

As we face the challenges and uncertainties from this continuing pandemic, the BSP reiterates its commitment to use its entire arsenal of policy tools and instruments in a timely and prudent manner to help cushion the economy from the potential fallout.

4 3 Scale economies exist where average costs decline as a product or service is provided in larger quantities. Scope economies exist where average costs for a product or service are lower if it is produced jointly with another product or service.

4 The mergers and acquisitions example suggests a somewhat different source of competitive advantage for certain firms, arising from the fact that a firm may, over time, acquire sufficient experience that it can provide, 2 BIS central bankers’ speeches The paucity of empirical work means we can only hypothesize these scale and scope economies, though intuition and observation may make some hypotheses stronger than others.

• In this context, improvements in the policy framework aimed at completing the EMU architecture with more coordination of economic policies, sufficient backstops to address liquidity shortfalls and, last but not least, common supervision of the financial sector. • The Stability and Growth Pact was strengthened through a series of EU regulations in 2011 and 2013.

On the upside, domestic demand could be greater than projected, given the strength of Canada's terms of trade and the momentum of household credit growth. Potential output could be lower than assumed, given ongoing weakness in labour productivity. Global inflationary pressures could also lead to higher-than-projected import costs for Canada. On the downside, commodity prices could be weaker than assumed.

Meanwhile, an index of applications for mortgages for home purchases has been trending up since July. Although these developments are encouraging, we should keep in mind that even if demand stabilizes in its current range, reducing the inventory of unsold homes to more normal levels will likely involve further adjustments in production.

The slowing pace of residential construction is likely to be a drag on economic growth into next year. Growth in some manufacturing industries has also slowed of late, and data prepared by the Federal Reserve show that aggregate manufacturing production declined in September and October.

Another motivation for this subject is that colleagues in the Reserve Bank have done substantial research in this area and a paper entitled “Real Interest Rate Impact on Investment and Growth: What the Empirical Evidence for India Suggests?” was placed in the public domain.1 I will urge you to look at that paper so that it generates further research and discussion.

In parallel, the European Commission’s package reviewing the current EU regulatory framework for banks is moving in the right direction in terms of risk reduction measures. It is expected to make a significant contribution to strengthening banking regulation, supervision and resolution, even if there are some areas for improvement.

A total of 15 critical projects covering around 562 km track length were completed in 2019-20 and railway electrification work of total 5782 route kms was also completed in 2019-20. India has also recorded an impressive growth in metro rail projects for urban mass transportation. 22. Notwithstanding this progress, the infrastructure gap remains large.

According to estimates of NITI Aayog, the country would need around US $ trillion for investment in infrastructure by 2030. On financing options for infrastructure, we are just recovering from the consequences of excessive exposure of banks to infrastructure projects. Non-performing assets (NPAs) relating to infrastructure lending by banks has remained at elevated levels. There is clearly a need for diversifying financing options.

Thanks to the coordinated efforts of the Greek authorities and the Bank of Greece, successful rights issues resulted in the full coverage of the shortfall by December 2015, with private investors subscribing about € billion. These efforts minimized HFSF participation and helped to restore confidence in the longer-term viability of Greek banks.

But the ECB cannot single-handedly create the conditions for a sustainable recovery in growth. This requires a concerted effort in terms of economic and fiscal policies.

On the one hand, consensus has grown around the idea to postpone the implementation of the ESM backstop to the Single Resolution Fund until 2024 unless further progress has been achieved in risk reduction measured solely in relation to NPL volumes (and in building up buffers of liabilities to be used in a crisis).

On the other hand, a situation is accepted whereby a disorderly liquidation is the only possible outcome for the crises of small and medium-sized intermediaries which, like most European banks, are not subject to resolution (albeit – it must be noted – they are required to contribute to the Single Resolution Fund).

These steps would result in deploying the high level of financial savings in the economy and reaping the best possible advantage in terms of gearing the economy towards the optimal growth path. Mobilization of resources Let me now turn to mobilization of resources for the purpose of funding.

This is another area that needs our urgent attention and calls for the extension of banking services to population group-wise as well as spatially.

Yet precisely because we do not grasp them very well, and because we have observed sharp changes in one direction, we cannot rule out that, if the underlying conditions change, equally strong changes could occur in the opposite direction.

Joseph Yam, Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, laments the situation in the following terms: Whether we like it or not, we now find ourselves in the unenviable position of holding a substantial part of our savings in the financial liabilities of an economy that does not save, fearing that a diversification of a small part of such holdings might lead to a sharp fall in the value of the rest, thus shooting ourselves in the foot.

7 Notably, these commitments were reaffirmed on October 11 in communiqués issued by the International Monetary and Financial Committee of the Board of Governors of the IMF and by the Group of Twenty finance ministers and central bank governors.

8 The FDIC's guarantee program complemented a temporary increase in the deposit insurance limit, from $ to $ per account, passed by the Congress as part of the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act, the bill that created the TARP. 4 BIS Review 27/2009 Washington on October 10.

I now stand ready to take your questions. 1 See Lagarde, C. (2019), “Opening Statement by Christine Lagarde to the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee of the European Parliament”, September. 2 See www.ecb.europa.eu/home/search/review/html/index.en.html 3 See www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/html/strategy_review.en.html 4 See ECB (2021),“ECB presents action plan to include climate change considerations in its monetary policy strategy”, ECB press release, July.

The outcome might be that insurers change their asset allocation to the detriment of bank debt securities. As insurers are among the most important investors in bank bonds, this could ultimately lead to an increase in banks’ funding costs. Within a single sector, too, different regulations can set conflicting incentives.

Our current forecasts, which are consistent with the Accord being met, suggest an annual construction rate of 8,700 in 2015, increasing to 11,000 by 2017. High-rise apartment construction and other high-density options will be a crucial part of increasing construction and reducing the supply shortage.

The need for increased densification has been recognised by the Auckland Council in recently proposed changes to the unitary plan, which will be finalised in mid-2016. It is also encouraging that the share of apartment consents in Auckland is rising, and is expected to increase further with several apartment projects currently in the planning stages.

We have the responsibility to prevent major financial market disruptions through development and enforcement of prudent regulatory standards and, if necessary in rare circumstances, through direct intervention in market events.

But we also have the responsibility to ensure that private sector institutions have the capacity to take prudent and appropriate risks, even though such risks will sometimes result in unanticipated bank losses or even bank failures.

The government sector also continues to be a substantial drag on activity, both at the federal level (chart 10) – where defense and nondefense spending look to have dropped last year – and at the state and local levels (chart 11). The declines in state and local government expenditures reflect continuing cutbacks in both employment and construction outlays.

The budgets of these governments are quite strained by the ongoing phase-out of federal stimulus grants and the weakness of local tax collections. 4 BIS central bankers’ speeches One area of the economy that has been performing relatively favorably is the trade sector.

15 In telecommunications, for instance, now largely or fully open to competition, labour productivity growth has significantly accelerated, from 4.4% between 1980 and 1995 to 7.4% between 1995 and 2005 and telephone prices charged by the former monopolies for national and international calls were reduced by more than 40% on average in Europe between 2000 and 2006.

Changes in these factors might also affect the behavior of the money market rates. III. Reforms toward globalization (shifting to the new gensaki method) Another important initiative is the unification of contract types for repos. Recently, market participants agreed on the uniform adoption of the new gensaki method, a more globally accepted form of a repurchase agreement.

Our households, like those elsewhere have observed financial turmoil abroad and have become more cautious – much to the disappointment of the merchants who were depending on Christmas sales for a large part of their income.

There are indications of a marked slowdown in housing activity, in part due to high interest rates but perhaps more so as a consequence of the unwinding of the construction and real estate boom of the last years. In addition, our manufacturing sector has begun to face the impact of the declining external and domestic demand.

Collaboration and synergy on national and international level is critical to the development of Digital Rupiah. Figure 20.

2 I congratulate the graduands for their successful completion of their studies and also thank the parents and guardians for their sacrifice to support the students, throughout their school life. Investment in building our country’s human capacity is the most valuable contribution which parents and guardians can make to the future of our nation.

An analysis by the Canadian Payments Association (CPA) revealed that international payment needs are not currently being met.10 Compared with domestic payments, cross-border payments involve higher transaction costs and longer processing times associated with converting from one national payment system to another. To achieve these four important characteristics, our core national payment clearing and settlement systems should be upgraded.

The Automated Clearing Settlement System (ACSS) was implemented in the early 1980s, and is showing its age. Access is limited, settlement occurs the next day and end-to-end processing of payments is slow. The Large Value Transfer System (LVTS) was implemented in 1999. It, too, could benefit from technological enhancements to clear and settle both retail and wholesale payments more efficiently.

The financial system is a private risk sharing device, but we have learned the lessons from the financial crisis in terms of budgetary costs, when excessive risk-taking in the private sector was eventually borne by the public sector.

Not to revert to the old world of implicit government guarantees for risky behaviour of financial institutions entails risk reduction in bank balance sheets through a more resilient loss1/4 BIS central bankers' speeches absorption capacity throughout the cycle. This makes banks equally liable across countries for the amount of risk they want to take into their respective balance sheet.

There are many possible paths of financial reform and each has advantages and disadvantages. The exact path taken by any country on the journey of financial reform will obviously depend upon its economic and financial conditions. China has seen the mistakes that others have made and it has been able to draw some lessons from these mistakes.

China’s early adoption of some BIS central bankers’ speeches 5 of the new Basel regulatory requirements can clearly be seen in this light, as can the gradual liberalisation of the capital account and of domestic interest rates. The point I want to emphasise though is that having undertaken our own broad journey of financial reform, we are glad we did so.

This involves such elements as a secure system for large-value payments, deposit insurance, bankruptcy laws, central bank provision of liquidity, and sound risk-management practices, including capital cushions and prudential regulation. Let me be very clear, the goal of these shock absorbers is not to prevent losses, but to absorb them without impairing the effective functioning of credit markets and the financial system in general.

And because the best levees can break down in a hurricane, we need strong crisis management that will mitigate the fallout from financial shocks without weakening the incentives for prevention of such breakdowns. One method that is increasingly being used to gauge the robustness of the financial system is the conduct of simulations to identify vulnerabilities to extreme shocks.

Secondly, we have a clear priority to ensure that a gender-segregated target for account usage is incorporated as well. I am confident that we can meet all of the targets, based on the progress I have seen so far. By reaching these targets, we hope to create at least 3 million new jobs, and additional exports of $ 5.5 billion.

The Government’s ownership in NFIS can also be determined by the fact that an NFIS Transformation Office will be established in the PM Office: a. To ensure 100% digitalization of Govt. payments, along with providing necessary technical services to provincial government, so they can possess or identify the pool of expertise in this regard. b. To act as Trouble-shooter in resolving Implementation Agencies issues.

Both of these mean enjoying now a level of consumption beyond what is produced locally: and in simplified terms, that is what a current account deficit is. BIS Review 8/1998 -4- Other things being equal, a strong demand to borrow tends to push up interest rates. It is those pressures which then draw in foreign capital.

Additionally, it is worth highlighting that, according to these results, none of the considered countries or regions benefits from such a situation, although some lose more than others.3 Notwithstanding the rigor with which these models are devised, we must not forget that they face severe limitations when trying to capture the effects of high levels of uncertainty.

This is where the SSM comes into play – more specifically, the relationship between macroprudential policy and monetary policy, the third side of the triangle. In principle, it should be easier, by expanding the toolkit which is available to the ECB, with the SSM to establish a clear separation of functions between the two policy areas.

Monetary policy should concentrate on price stability, which is an important variable throughout the euro area. The focus of macro-prudential policy should be on financial stability. Particular emphasis could be put on specific regional or sectoral imbalances. However, there may be circumstances under which a clear separation is not so simple.

The various so-called unconventional monetary measures undertaken by the ECB and other central banks throughout the crisis are a good example of adapting policy to changes in the real economy. Forward guidance, asset purchases, negative nominal interest rates and lending schemes that incentivise banks to increase lending, such as the targeted longer-term refinancing operations, were all designed to combat the challenges of the period.

Such policies were seen as appropriate – being both necessary and proportionate responses by central banks to fulfil their mandate for price stability. But as conditions normalise, it is unlikely that these policies will remain necessary.

BIS central bankers’ speeches 3 Going forward, we must be unremitting in our efforts to restore the robustness of the Korean economy, so that it is not so greatly swayed by domestic or external shocks.

I am firmly convinced that all AMCHAM members gathered here today will also contribute much, in your own individual fields of expertise, as our partners for the stable growth of the Korean economy. I should like to close by again expressing my gratitude to AMCHAM for giving me this opportunity to address you. 4 BIS central bankers’ speeches

* * * Mr Cœuré, we need to talk about Italy, where two populist parties are currently trying to form a coalition. In a draft paper they demanded debt relief of € billion from the European Central Bank. They have since withdrawn that demand, but it’s still a shock, isn’t it? The political discussion is still ongoing in Italy.

The ECB will assess the new government’s plans when they are made public. So, to make the question more general: can the ECB relieve a euro area country from the debts owed to it by that country? No, it cannot. European treaties prohibit any such debt relief. Central banks cannot finance governments.

A core element of our approach is to ensure that the financial system is sufficiently resilient to withstand future shocks and that the impact of these shocks is mitigated. This public service mandate, together with the specific responsibilities laid out in legislation, underpins all that we do, and connects our five strategic priorities for the next three years.

The same is even more true for Japan, with the 5 See José Manuel Campa and Linda S. Goldberg (2005), “Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices,” Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 87 (November), pp. 679–90; and Christopher Gust, Sylvain Leduc, and Robert Vigfusson (2010), “Trade Integration, Competition, and the Decline in Exchange-Rate Pass-Through,” Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 57 (April), pp.

It is something we tend to take for granted – financial crises have been uncommon in this country. But evidence from a wide range of countries over many decades shows us that when they do happen, crises are damaging with long-lasting effects. They impact businesses and households, with reduced economic activity and lost output. They result in increased unemployment and costs for taxpayers.

Not only that, recovery can take over a decade and is often halting in nature. Put another way, financial instability creates inefficiency and waste on a large scale. Reducing the likelihood and severity of these episodes is therefore at the heart of our mission.

To counter these, we need to consider various multilateral policy initiatives, from international accounting standards to international capital requirements for banks, from a “New Financial Architecture” to crisis prevention and resolution mechanisms. Also, market participants will need to enhance their ability to manage vast quantities of collateral that are integral to globalized modern finance.

What is talent management? 8. Talent Management – is it the management of entertainers? There is an enormous array of literature and research on “Talent Management” – and a whole lot of companies and consultancies minting money out of “Talent Management”. What actually is Talent Management or Human Capital Management – the more fashionable phrase – implying the same thing?

(2015) Press Conference on the EDIS Proposal at the European Parliament, Strasbourg, http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_SPEECH-15–6154_en.htm, November 2015. 21. Hill, J. (2015) Opening statement on Structured Dialogue – European Parliament: Economic & Monetary Affairs Committee, Brussels, http://europa.eu/rapid/pressrelease_SPEECH-15–6206_en.htm, November 2015. 22. Hill, J. (2015) Speech at the launch of the Commission’s Green Paper on Consumer Finance, Brussels, http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_SPEECH-15–6293_en.htm, December 2015. 23. Hill, J.

(2015) Speech at the CRR Review Conference, DG FISMA, “The Impact of the CRR and CRD IV on Bank Financing of the Economy”, Brussels, http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_SPEECH-15–6310_en.htm, December 2015. 24. Hill, J. (2016) Keynote speech at the European Banking Authority’s 5th Anniversary Conference, London, http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_SPEECH-16–250_en.htm, February 2016. 25. King, M. (2016) “The End of Alchemy: Money, Banking and the Future of the Global Economy” Little, Brown.

Thus, Japan became a so-called processing trade country, leveraging strong price competitiveness to drive exports and acquiring foreign currency. The driven exports increased corporate profits and household income, which were eventually poured into financial institutions as deposits and then passed on to firms, mainly to be used for fixed and R&D investments. Consequently, a virtuous cycle operated in the Japanese industry.

Both these measures require a reliable large-value payment system with same-day (preferably real-time as is the norm) settlement. The effectiveness of any monetary policy measure depends to a large extent on the efficacy and soundness of the large-value payment system.

We saw considerable strength in demand in the United States in the 1990s, when productivity accelerated, and we are beginning to see it in China, where rising demand for imports is eroding the country’s large trade surplus and boosting the economies of some of its trading partners. People experiencing much brighter economic prospects will want much more in the way of consumer goods.

As per the end of April this year, aggregate assets of Macao banking system stood at MOP732.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.3%; total loans stood at MOP355.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.8%; total deposits were valued at MOP476.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 26.2%. Non-performing loan ratio was only 0.32%; capital adequacy ratio reached 15.1%, composed mainly of tier one capital.

BIS central bankers’ speeches 1 6. The second category of financially illiterates I call them “Greed-driven Illiterates”. These are people who are well educated and well understand the risks involved in various financial decisions that they make. But in their case, greed overpowers sanity.

Believe me in Reserve Bank of India, every day we keep receiving strange complaints or the grievances from people, who were offered a big sum of money from the British Government or a large corporate firm or someone has left them a big endowment.

Much of the strength of monetary growth in early 2003 was due to the high level of economic and financial market uncertainty prevailing at that time, which prompted portfolio shifts into safer, short-term liquid assets included in M3.

In the Governing Council’s assessment, the accumulation of excess liquidity was less of a concern for price stability as long as the economic recovery in the euro area remained gradual.

In that regard, with the approval of Northern hapu Te Roroa 3, we have borrowed the legend of Tāne Mahuta to connect with our stakeholders and tell the story of the Reserve Bank 4 (Figure 2). Figure 2.

Were expectations of deflation to become entrenched, on the other hand, policy would face a much more difficult task to remedy the situation. This highlights the importance of articulating the goals of policy as clearly as possible, so as to give expectations an anchor. For inflation targeting countries such as Australia, stressing the symmetry of the target is quite important in this context.

True, various measures of longer-term inflation expectations derived from financial markets and from expert surveys largely stand at around 2%. But initial signs of above-target revisions in those measures have to be monitored closely. We are worried about the high rate of inflation in the euro area, which has repeatedly surprised professional forecasters.

The Bundesbank is now expecting the inflation rate in Germany to reach close to 7% in 2022. The longer the high inflation figures persist, the greater the risk of second-round effects becomes. Monetary policy has to act before medium- to long-term inflation expectations show clear signs of de-anchoring. Acting too late would necessitate a stronger reaction to rein in inflation.

The Federal Reserve would have to give thought as to whether the borrowings of any institution should be limited in amount or frequency to forestall credit market distortions. A multifaceted approach An approach that uses all of the possibilities I've identified might be the best direction.

I start from the perspective that there are three different drivers of reserve injection and withdrawal in the BIS Review 84/2001 5 implementation of monetary policy. The first driver is the long-term increase in the demand for currency and reserves.

In this way, the price of money increases, the volume of cash in the economy shrinks and the pressure on 6 BIS central bankers’ speeches prices and wages recedes. With deflation it is harder. We are now in a situation in which we should reduce the interest rate further, but that is no longer possible.

6 level, this aim is being pursued by implementing the Capital Markets Union project: enriching the types of financing available to non-financial corporations, broadening the portfolio choices of investors, enhancing the efficiency of financial intermediation, removing barriers to cross-border investment, and increasing funding options for SMEs and infrastructure.

• What form will the EU legal framework for the banking union take? • How can we make sure that the sovereign tasks of banking supervision are adequately legitimised and are subject to parliamentary control? • What is the banking union’s position vis-à-vis other policy areas, in particular macroprudential policy and monetary policy?

You will recall that at the beginning of 2008, the year of the global financial crisis, the tier 1 capital ratio averaged around 9.1 %. Meanwhile, leverage has continued to decline and is likewise following a multi-year trend.

Competition should be strengthened in product markets, not least by the completion of the Single Market, and wages should adjust in a flexible manner, reflecting labour market conditions and productivity. These 2 BIS central bankers’ speeches growth-enhancing reforms would accelerate the necessary adjustment process and enhance job creation.

Finally, the Governing Council very much welcomes leaders at the last European Council meeting agreeing to step up their reflections on the long-term vision for Economic and Monetary Union. The Governing Council considers this a highly important step. We are now at your disposal for questions. BIS central bankers’ speeches 3

Figure 15: Oil prices and world prices for New Zealand’s key export commodities Strong growth in demand for biofuels suggests greater convergence between agriculture commodities and energy commodities in future.

Hall, F. Lotti and J. Mairesse (2013), “Evidence on the impact of R&D and ICT investment on innovation and productivity in Italian firms”, Economics of Innovation and New Technology, 22(3). 12 Eurostat (2010), Community Innovation Survey 2008. 4 BIS central bankers’ speeches less capable of patenting inventions and industrial designs, registering brands and protecting intellectual property rights.

This macro-prudential regime should have three main features: First, adjustments should only be possible in the direction of strengthening the harmonised minima. Second, and as mentioned earlier, only calibrations should be subject to upward adjustment. Definitions should be maintained, thus respecting the principle of an EU rulebook.

Since the first commercialised 8-bit 4 / 12 BIS central bankers' speeches microprocessor was introduced in 1974 there has been 20 doublings of technology for the same price, according to Moore’s Law, generating a growth factor of 1,048,576.

The ECB staff projections from September 2007 see growth ranging from 2.2% to 2.8% in 2007 and from 1.8% to 2.8% in 2008, even though risks are tilted to the downside. In a particularly welcome development, unemployment has declined significantly, from 9% in 1999 to 6.9% (July 2007). 12 million new jobs have been created since 1999.

Inflation has stood at 2.1% on average since the start of EMU, which shows that inflation expectations are firmly anchored. Hence, price stability has created a favorable environment for investment and growth in the euro area. Concerning the outlook for prices, ECB staff projects annual inflation to average between 1.9% and 2.1% this year and between 1.5% and 2.5% in 2008.

Further challenges will arise as new countries, including those currently at a relatively low level of financial development, join the European monetary system. Their accession will greatly complicate the harmonization process, but given what we know about the role of finance in economic development, the benefits for both the new members and the current ones could be very large. BIS Review 13/2004 7

Second, the structure of the two economies is very different – mainly with respect to the degree of market flexibility – producing different effects in the two areas in response to similar shocks, with specific implications for monetary policy. This interpretation does not deny the presence of some differences in the policy framework adopted in the two currency areas.

Some of the more important initiatives included the establishment of an in-house Actuarial Unit headed by an experienced Actuary. This Unit allows the Bank to closely monitor, analyse and set direct attention to the sufficiency of actuarial reserves held by life insurers, as well as being able to verify the adequacy of outstanding claim reserves for non life companies.

This means that they could crystalise across multiple jurisdictions and sectors simultaneously, think of the drought, heatwaves and wildfires all over Europe during the course of the summer. Such widespread climate events can have implications for the resilience of the broader financial system. Manifestations of climate risk may give rise to abrupt increases in risk premia across a wide range of assets.

More likely, this success is remarkable testimony to generations of managers who had a good assessment of risk, plenty of common sense, a strong attachment to their core business and an ability to resist the temptation of exotic new opportunities. It sounds simple.

In fact, many observers viewed the 2016 presidential election result in the US as one of many examples – albeit a key one – depicting a general shift of voters in advanced economies towards populist politics and policies, including a rejection of several key tenets of the wave of globalisation over the past few decades.

Against this background, the Italian G20 Presidency will promote work in two main areas: i) a harmonized implementation of FSB recommendations to address financial stability risks from so-called stablecoins, and ii) the development of measures necessary to effectively address other issues, such as such as money laundering and terrorism financing, data privacy, cyber security, consumer and investor protection and competition.

On these works I have two more specific remarks: 4 • First, the obstacles to achieving harmonized approaches in regulating stablecoins across jurisdictions, risks associated with diverging regulatory frameworks and possible cross-border regulatory gaps need to be clearly identified in order to avoid a negative impact on financial stability and to limit regulatory arbitrage.

Thus, conditional on the swap arrangement being in force, open-market purchases of government bonds by the BOJ would combine an expansionary monetary policy with a reduction of interest-rate risk in the banking system at no 8 budgetary cost. The simple step of immunizing the BOJ's balance sheet thus opens a number of interesting policy options.

5 There does not appear to be any provision in the Bank of Japan Law that addresses whether the Bank can or cannot have negative net worth, or what would happen if it were to report negative net worth.

Olli Rehn: On conventional and unconventional monetary policies Opening remarks by Mr Olli Rehn, Governor of the Bank of Finland, at the 70th Economic Policy Panel Meeting at the Bank of Finland, Helsinki, 10 October 2019. * * * Ladies and Gentlemen, Dear Colleagues and Friends, It is my great honour and pleasure to welcome you to the 70th Economic Policy Panel Meeting.

Economic Policy – the journal, that is – has had an invaluable impact on economists and policymakers in Europe since its establishment by Georges De Menil, Richard Portes, David Begg and Charles Wyplosz in 1985.