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{ "en": "1929 or 1989?", "zh": "1929年还是1989年?" }

{ "en": "PARIS – As the economic crisis deepens and widens, the world has been searching for historical analogies to help us understand what has been happening. At the start of the crisis, many people likened it to 1982 or 1973, which was reassuring, because both dates refer to classical cyclical downturns.", "zh": "巴黎-随着经济危机不断加深和蔓延，整个世界一直在寻找历史上的类似事件希望有助于我们了解目前正在发生的情况。一开始，很多人把这次危机比作1982年或1973年所发生的情况，这样得类比是令人宽心的，因为这两段时期意味着典型的周期性衰退。" }

{ "en": "The tendency is either excessive restraint (Europe) or a diffusion of the effort (the United States). Europe is being cautious in the name of avoiding debt and defending the euro, whereas the US has moved on many fronts in order not to waste an ideal opportunity to implement badly needed structural reforms.", "zh": "如今人们的心情却是沉重多了，许多人开始把这次危机与1929年和1931年相比，即使一些国家政府的表现仍然似乎把视目前的情况为是典型的而看见的衰退。目前的趋势是，要么是过度的克制（欧洲），要么是努力的扩展（美国）。欧洲在避免债务和捍卫欧元的名义下正变得谨慎，而美国已经在许多方面行动起来，以利用这一理想的时机来实行急需的结构性改革。" }

{ "en": "Of course, the fall of the house of Lehman Brothers has nothing to do with the fall of the Berlin Wall. Indeed, on the surface it seems to be its perfect antithesis: the collapse of a wall symbolizing oppression and artificial divisions versus the collapse of a seemingly indestructible and reassuring institution of financial capitalism.", "zh": "然而，作为地域战略学家，无论是从政治意义还是从经济意义上，让我自然想到的年份是1989年。当然，雷曼兄弟公司的倒闭和柏林墙的倒塌没有任何关系。事实上，从表面上看，两者似乎是完全是相反的：一个是象征着压抑和人为分裂的柏林墙的倒塌，而另一个是看似坚不可摧的并令人安心的金融资本主义机构的倒塌。" }

{ "en": "The end of the East-West ideological divide and the end of absolute faith in markets are historical turning points. And what happens in 2009 may jeopardize some of the positive results of 1989, including the peaceful reunification of Europe and the triumph of democratic principles over nationalist, if not xenophobic, tendencies.", "zh": "然而，和1989年一样，2008-2009年很可能也能被视为一个划时代的改变，其带来的发人深省的后果将在几十年后仍能让我们感受得到。东西方意识形态鸿沟的结束，以及对市场绝对信心的后果，都是历史的转折点。而2009年所发生的事情可能会威胁1989年革命所带来的积极成果，包括欧洲的和平统一和民主制度战胜了民族主义倾向，如果不是恐外倾向的话。" }

{ "en": "In 1989, liberal democracy triumphed over the socialist ideology incarnated and promoted by the Soviet Bloc. For many of his supporters, it was President Ronald Reagan who, with his deliberate escalation of the arms race, pushed the Soviet economy to the brink, thereby fully demonstrating the superiority of liberal societies and free markets.", "zh": "1989年，自由民主战胜了由苏联集团具体化并推崇的社会主义意识形态。对于里根总统的许多的支持者来说，就是他精心策划的军备竞赛的升级，把苏联经济推向了崩溃的边缘，从而充分显示了自由社会和自由市场的优越性。" }

{ "en": "First, and perhaps above all, the revolutions of 1989 and the subsequent collapse of the Soviet Union put an end to global bipolarity. By contrast, 2009 is likely to pave the way to a new form of bipolarity, but with China substituting for the Soviet Union.", "zh": "当然，现在的情况和1989年的情况明显不同了。首先，也许是最重要的，1989年的革命和随后的苏联解体结束了全球的两极化。与此相反，2009年很可能会为一种新的两极化形式铺平道路，只是中国取代了苏联。" }

{ "en": "Second, whereas democracy and market capitalism appeared as clear – if more fragile than expected – winners in 1989, it is difficult in 2009, with the spread of the global crisis, to distinguish winners from losers. Everyone seems to be a loser, even if some are more affected than others.", "zh": "其二，民主制度和市场资本主义，或许要比预期的要脆弱些，看来确实是当时的赢家。而在2009年，随着全球危机的蔓延，却很难区分赢家和输家；每个人似乎都是输家，即使有些国家比其它国家受到的影响更大。" }

{ "en": "Yet, history is unfair, and the US, despite its greater responsibility for today’s global crisis, may emerge in better shape than most countries from the morass. In better shape, but not alone.", "zh": "而历史是不公平的。尽管美国要为当今的全球危机负更大的责任，但美国可能会比大多数国家以更良好的势态走出困境。美国会恢复得更好，但并不是唯一能恢复的国家。作为哈佛大学和麻省理工学院的访问教授，我能看到危机过后的世界是什么样子的。" }

{ "en": "One senses something like the making of an American-Asian dominated universe. From the incredible media lab at MIT to the mathematics and economics departments at Harvard, Asians – Chinese and Indians, in particular – are everywhere, like the Romans in Athens in the first century BC: full of admiration for those from whom they were learning so much, and whom they would overcome in the coming decades.", "zh": "我们能感受到一个美国和亚洲占主导地位的世界正在形成。从一流的麻省理工学院的媒体实验室到哈佛大学的数学和经济系，亚洲人-尤其是中国和印度人-到处都是，犹如公元前一世纪在雅典的罗马人一样：他们对那里学到太多东西的人们充满了敬佩，而他们将在今后几十年打败他们学习的对象。" }

{ "en": "But before this new order appears, the world may be faced with spreading disorder, if not outright chaos. What, for example, will happen to a country as central and vulnerable as Egypt when hundred of thousands of Egyptians working in the Gulf are forced to return to their homeland as a result of the crisis in the oil-producing countries?", "zh": "但是，在这一新秩序的出现之前，世界可能会面临更广泛的混沌，如果不是彻底的混乱的话。例如，对埃及这样一个重要而又脆弱的国家，有数十万的埃及人曾在海湾工作但现在因石油生产国出现的危机而被迫返回了自己的家园，那埃及会发生什么情况呢？当富人不再那么富了，穷人就会更穷。还有，对于那些追求“欧洲梦”的外来工人，现在他们面临着理应是开放的欧洲国家的仇外心态可能的爆发，他们会有怎样的遭遇？" }

{ "en": "The consequences of 1989 ended up being less enduring than many observers, including me, would have assumed. We can only hope that, in the end, the consequences of 2009 similarly prove to be far less dramatic than we now – intuitively and in our historical reflexes – feel them to be.", "zh": "1989年革命所带来的成果，最后没有包括我在内许多观察家所想象的那么持久。我们只能希望2009年的危机同样地最后被证明是远远低于我们现在以直觉和历史回顾的方式所感觉到的那么剧烈。" }

{ "en": "What Failed in 2008?", "zh": "2008年败在何处？" }

{ "en": "You actually have to implement the solution – and be willing to change course if it turns out that you did not know quite as much as you thought. That is the message of two recent books that, together, tell you everything you need to know about the 2008 financial crisis: what caused it, what can be done to prevent it from recurring, and why those things have yet to be done.", "zh": "伯克利—要解决问题，光知道做什么是不够的。你实际上必须实施解决办法——并且在事实证明你知道的并不如你认为的那样多时，你得愿意改变办法。这就是两本新书一起告诉你的信息。这两本新书讲述了你需要知道的关于2008年金融危机的一切：什么引起了金融危机，可以做什么防止它再次发生，以及为何这些事情还没有人去做。" }

{ "en": "The first book is The Shifts and the Shocks, by the conservative British journalist Martin Wolf, who begins by cataloguing the major shifts that set the stage for the economic disaster that continues to shape the world today. His starting point is the huge rise in wealth among the world’s richest 0.1% and 0.01% and the consequent pressure for people, governments, and companies to take on increasingly unsustainable levels of debt.", "zh": "第一本书是《变化和冲击》（The Shifts and the Shocks），作者是保守派英国记者马丁·沃尔夫（Martin Wolf）。在书的开头，他对酝酿了至今仍在影响世界的这场经济灾难的重要变化做了归纳编目。首先，他指出世界最富有的0.1%和0.01%人群财富剧增，这给人民、政府和公司造成了日益不可持续的高负债的压力。" }

{ "en": "Meanwhile, policymakers were lulled into complacency by the widespread acceptance of economic theories such as the “efficient-market hypothesis,” which assumes that investors act rationally and use all available information when making their decisions. As a result, markets were deregulated, making it easier to trade assets that were perceived to be safe, but were in fact not.", "zh": "与此同时，决策者因为“有效市场假说”等经济理论的广泛接受而志得意满，有效市场假说认为投资者的行为是理性的，在作出决策时会利用一切可获得的信心。结果，市场监管被放松，交易被认为安全但实际并不安全的资产变得更加容易。结果，系统性风险悄然酝酿，并且超过了央行官员最大胆的想象。" }

{ "en": "They set inflation targets at around 2% – leaving little room for maneuver when the water got choppy. And, most audaciously of all, the European Union introduced the euro as a common currency.", "zh": "未受检验并且最终错误的假设形成了一个只能用狂妄自大形容的决策环境。官员低估了尾部风险。它们将通胀目标设定在2%左右——这意味着当波涛汹涌时他们根本没有多少施展空间。此外，最大胆的动作要数欧盟引入欧元作为共同货币。" }

{ "en": "Indeed, wrongheaded policymaking continued long after the crisis began. Politicians responded to worsening economic conditions by hewing as closely as possible to failed prescriptions, making sure to do no more than absolutely necessary to address the biggest economic disaster since the Great Depression.", "zh": "事实上，方向错误的决策在危机开始后仍然能维持了很长时间。政客对恶化的经济条件的反应是坚定实施错误的药方，对于这场大萧条以来最严重的经济灾难，他们除了绝对需要做的事情意外什么都不做。" }

{ "en": "In the short term, he suggests that countries with reserve currencies spend more (especially to finance public-sector investments) and issue more debt. Their central banks, he argues, should raise inflation targets to 3% or even 4% per year.", "zh": "沃尔夫给抵御这场危机开出的药方简单、明智并且无懈可击。在短期，他建议拥有储备货币的国家增加支出（特别是公共部门投资融资）、发行更多债务。他指出，这些国家的央行应该将通胀目标提高到每年3%甚至4%。" }

{ "en": "Over the medium term, according to Wolf, countries need to put in place regulatory measures that lower debt levels and discourage overleveraging. The eurozone, too, must resolve its internal contradictions, either by disbanding or by introducing “a minimum set of institutions and policies” that allow the monetary union to function properly.", "zh": "在中期，沃尔夫认为各国需要实施监管措施降低债务水平、阻止过度举债。欧元区也必须解决其内部矛盾，要么通过解散欧元区实现，要么通过引入能令货币联盟正常运行的“最小限度的机构和政策组合”实现。沃尔夫的长期解决方案包括遏制不平等、“更加全球化的监管”、更大程度的“个体国家自己决定反应方式的自由”以及更少受到自由市场思想束缚的经济分析。一开始正是自由市场思想让我们陷入了危机。" }

{ "en": "And yet, as recommendable as Wolf’s proposals may be, little has been done to implement them. The reasons why are found in the second book: Hall of Mirrors, by my friend, teacher, and patron, Barry Eichengreen.", "zh": "但是，尽管沃尔夫的方案值得推荐，但几乎没有任何实施。原因可以从第二本书中找到：由我的朋友、老师和“老板”巴里·艾肯格林（Barry Eichengreen）所著的《镜厅》（Hall of Mirrors）。" }

{ "en": "Eichengreen traces our tepid response to the crisis to the triumph of monetarist economists, the disciples of Milton Friedman, over their Keynesian and Minskyite peers – at least when it comes to interpretations of the causes and consequences of the Great Depression. When the 2008 financial crisis erupted, policymakers tried to apply Friedman’s proposed solutions to the Great Depression.", "zh": "艾肯格林认为，我们对这场危机反应不温不火，原因要追溯到作为弗里德曼（MiltonFriedman）门徒的货币经济学家对凯恩斯主义和明斯基（MInskyite）主义同行的胜利——至少在解释大萧条的原因和后果方面是如此。2008年金融危机爆发时，决策者试图使用弗里德曼提出的大萧条方案。不幸的是，事实证明这是错的，直言不讳地说，货币主义者对大萧条的解释在众多方面都是错误的，并且非常不完整。" }

{ "en": "The result is today’s stagnant economy, marked by anemic growth that threatens to become the new normal. The United States and Europe are on track to have thrown away 10% of their potential wealth, while the failure to strengthen financial-sector regulation has left the world economy exposed to the risk of another major crisis.", "zh": "由此产生的政策足以阻止2008年后的衰退演变为完全的萧条；但这一局部成功的代价也是巨大的，它让政客宣布危机已经被克服，应该采取紧缩并专注于结构改革。结果就是现在的经济停滞，其特征是增长无力并且随时可能成为新常态。美国和欧洲损失了10%的潜在财富，而没有强化金融部门监管让世界经济随时可能迎来新一场大危机。" }

{ "en": "Wolf and Eichengreen would agree that the main shortcomings that led to the 2008 financial crisis – and that continue to underpin our inadequate response to it – are intellectual. Indeed, the only true lesson of the crisis so far seems to be that its lessons will never truly be learned.", "zh": "沃尔夫和艾肯格林会认为，导致2008年金融危机的主要缺陷——以及继续破坏我们对危机的不充分反应的主要缺陷——是知识缺陷。事实上，到目前为止，危机的唯一真正教训是它的教训从未被真正汲取。" }

{ "en": "9/11 and the New Authoritarianism", "zh": "9/11和新独裁专制主义" }

{ "en": "It has entered the history books as the beginning of something new, a new era perhaps, but in any case a time of change. The terrorist bombings in Madrid and London and elsewhere will also be remembered; but it is “9/11” that has become the catchphrase, almost like “August 1914.”", "zh": "袭击纽约双子塔和华盛顿五角大楼五年后，“9/11”已经不再仅仅是一个日期了。它已经作为一个变革时代的某种开端或者是一个新的时代的开始而载入史册。恐怖分子在马德里和伦敦以及其他地方制造的爆炸事件也将被人铭记；但是，只有“9/11”几乎像“1914年8月”那样成为了流行语。" }

{ "en": "During the heyday of Irish terrorism in the UK, successive British governments went out of their way not to concede to the IRA the notion that a war was being waged. “War” would have meant acceptance of the terrorists as legitimate enemies, in a sense as equals in a bloody contest for which there are accepted rules of engagement.", "zh": "但是，那果真是一场开于2001年9月11日的战争吗？并不是所有人都赞同这一美国式的观点。当爱尔兰恐怖主义在英国猖獗之际，各届英国政府都竭力不屈从于爱尔兰共和军的观点，即正在进行一场战争。“战争”将会意味着把恐怖分子接受为合法的敌人，其含义与具有认同的交战规则的一场血腥战争的对等体相同。" }

{ "en": "This is neither a correct description nor a useful terminology for terrorist acts, which are more correctly described as criminal. By calling them war – and naming an opponent, usually al-Qaeda and its leader, Osama bin Laden – the United States government has justified domestic changes that, before the 9/11 attacks, would have been unacceptable in any free country.", "zh": "这既非对恐怖主义行为的正确描述，也不是有用的词汇。恐怖分子应该更为准确地被称为罪犯。但是通过称之为战争、并把基地组织及其领导人本拉登点名为对手，美国政府给某些国内变化提供了理由。这些国内变化在9/11袭击之前是不会被任何自由国家所接受的。" }

{ "en": "Though some of the changes simply involved administrative regulations, the Patriot Act’s overall effect was to erode the great pillars of liberty, such as habeas corpus , the right to recourse to an independent court whenever the state deprives an individual of his freedom. From an early date, the prison camp at Guantánamo Bay in Cuba became the symbol of something unheard of: the arrest without trial of “illegal combatants” who are deprived of all human rights.", "zh": "这些变化的大多数都体现在所谓的“美国爱国者法案”上。尽管某些变化仅仅涉及到行政规定，但是，爱国者法案的整体效果却是侵蚀自由的支柱，例如人身保护，也就是无论何时国家剥夺个人自由，均有向独立法院寻求救助的权利。很久以来，古巴关塔那摩湾的战俘营成为了闻所未闻的象征，也就是不经审判逮捕被剥夺所有人权的“非法战斗人员”。" }

{ "en": "For everyone else, a kind of state of emergency was proclaimed that has allowed state interference in essential civil rights. Controls at borders have become an ordeal for many, and police persecution now burdens quite a few.", "zh": "如今，世界并不知道在多少地方还有多少更多的遭受非人待遇的人。对于其他所有人而言，好像是宣布了某种紧急状态，允许国家干涉基本民权。边境检查已经成为许多人的煎熬，警察起诉给很多人带来了负担。一种恐惧的气候让任何看似可疑或者行为可疑的人、特别是穆斯林生活困难。" }

{ "en": "On the contrary, by and large it was the critics, not the supporters, of these measures who found themselves in trouble. In Britain, where Prime Minister Tony Blair supported the US attitude entirely, the government introduced similar measures and even offered a new theory.", "zh": "当采取这些限制自由的措施的时候并没有遇到很多公众的反对。相反，总体而言，那些措施的批评者，而非支持者发现遇到了麻烦。在英国，布莱尔首相全力支持美国的态度，政府引入了类似的措施，甚至提出了一个新的理论。布莱尔第一个主张安全是第一自由。换言之，自由并非是个人确定自身生活的权利，而是国家以安全的名义限制个人自由的权利。只有国家才能确定安全的含义。这就是一个新的独裁主义的开始。" }

{ "en": "There is even a debate – and indeed some evidence – concerning the question of whether involvement in the “war against terrorism” has actually increased the threat of terrorist acts. Germans certainly use this argument to stay out of the action wherever possible.", "zh": "这一问题存在于所有受到恐怖主义威胁的国家，尽管在许多国家中这已经变得非常具体。在大多数欧洲大陆国家，”9/11“已经成为一个美国人的日子。甚至还有人辩论，而且确实还有证据表明，参与到“反恐战争”之中是否实际上增加了恐怖主义行动的威胁。德国人当然在可能的情况下利用这一论点置身度外。" }

{ "en": "This stance, however, has not prevented the spread of something for which a German word is used in other languages, too: Angst . A diffuse anxiety is gaining ground.", "zh": "但是，这一立场并没有防止德语中所说的忧虑的扩散。一种弥散性的焦虑正在扩大。人们感到不安，特别是在旅行的时候。任何一个火车事故或者飞机坠毁现在都首先被怀疑是恐怖主义行为。" }

{ "en": "While terrorism is fought in the name of democracy, the fight has in fact led to a distinct weakening of democracy, owing to official legislation and popular angst. One of the worrying features of the 9/11 attacks is that it is hard to see their purpose beyond the perpetrators’ resentment of the West and its ways.", "zh": "这样，9/11已经直接或间接地意味着一个巨大的震惊事件，在心理上以及对于政治体系而言都是如此。尽管以民主的名义与恐怖主义作战，实际上这一斗争由于官方的立法以及民众的忧虑而已经导致对民主明显的削弱。9/11攻击的令人担忧的特性之一就是除了罪犯们仇恨西方及其生活方式之外，很难看到他们的目的。但是西方社会的主要特征，即民主和法治却已经在捍卫者手中遭到了严重的损害，其程度超过远远超过其攻击者。" }

{ "en": "First, we must make certain that the relevant legislation to meet the challenge of terrorism is strictly temporary. Some of today’s restrictions on habeas corpus and civil liberties have sunset clauses restricting their validity; all such rules should be re-examined by parliaments regularly.", "zh": "最重要的是，需要采取两个步骤来在受到9/11后果影响的民主国家恢复对自由的信心。首先，我们必须确保应对恐怖主义挑战的相关立法是严格具有时限的。当今的某些对人身自由以及民权的限制含有限制其时效的废止条款。所有这些法规都应当定期接受议会的重新审查。" }

{ "en": "The terrorists with whom we are currently at “war” cannot win, because their dark vision will never gain broad popular legitimacy. That is all the more reason for democrats to stand tall in defending our values – first and foremost by acting in accordance with them.", "zh": "第二，也是更为重要的是，我们的领导人应当力求平息、而不是利用公众的焦虑。我们目前“交战”的恐怖分子无法获胜，因为他们的黑暗的观点永远不会赢得广泛的公众合法认可。这也就是民主派人士应当身先士卒、首要地以遵循我们的价值观的方式来捍卫它们的原因。" }

{ "en": "9/11 in Perspective", "zh": "9·11：十年后的盘点" }

{ "en": "NEW YORK – It was a decade ago that 19 terrorists took control of four planes, flew two into the twin towers of the World Trade Center, hit the Pentagon with a third, and crashed the fourth in a field in Pennsylvania after passengers resisted and made it impossible for the terrorists to complete their malevolent mission. In a matter of hours, more than 3,000 innocent people, mostly Americans, but also people from 115 other countries, had their lives suddenly and violently taken from them.", "zh": "纽约——十年前，19名恐怖分子劫持了四架民航客机，其中两架撞上世贸中心双子塔，第三架撞击了五角大楼，第四架在乘客的反抗下无法完成袭击，坠毁于宾夕法尼亚旷野。只不过几个小时，3000多无辜平民被突如其来的暴行夺去了生命，其中大多是美国人，但也有来自其他115个国家的人。" }

{ "en": "September 11, 2001, was a terrible tragedy by any measure, but it was not a historical turning point. It did not herald a new era of international relations in which terrorists with a global agenda prevailed, or in which such spectacular terrorist attacks became commonplace.", "zh": "2001年9月11日，以任何标准看都是一个可怕的惨剧，但它并非一个历史转折点。它并未开启一个由全球恐怖主义主导国际关系的新时代，类似的大规模恐怖袭击也没有变成家常便饭。虽然人们在“全球反恐战争”上投注了大量精力，但是过去10年最重要的进展是信息技术的创新与传播、全球化、伊拉克与阿富汗战争以及中东的政治动荡。" }

{ "en": "As for the future, it is much more likely to be defined by the United States’ need to put its economic house in order; China’s trajectory within and beyond its borders; and the ability of the world’s governments to cooperate on restoring economic growth, stemming the spread of nuclear weapons, and meeting energy and environmental challenges.", "zh": "未来一个阶段的关键，则是美国整修其经济大厦的努力，中国在国内国际事务中的走向，各国政府在重振经济增长、控制核扩散以及应对能源与环境挑战方面的合作能力。" }

{ "en": "They can destroy but not create. It is worth noting that the people who went into the streets of Cairo and Damascus calling for change were not shouting the slogans of Al Qaeda or supporting its agenda.", "zh": "如果把反对恐怖主义当成负责任的政府在世界上的核心要务，这是错误的。恐怖主义仍是边缘角色，它们的吸引力终归是有限的。它们只破坏，不建设。值得注意的是，人们走上开罗和大马士革街头，呼喊的并不是基地组织的口号，也没有对它的纲领表示支持。" }

{ "en": "Borders have been made more secure and societies more resilient. International cooperation has increased markedly, in part because governments that cannot agree on many things can agree on the need to cooperate in this area.", "zh": "此外，种种措施已经成功地令恐怖分子退入守势。情报资源已重新配置，国境线已变得更安全，社会已变得更有弹性。反恐国际合作显著增强，部分是因为，各国政府都觉得需要在这一领域加强合作，尽管它们在其他领域颇有分歧。" }

{ "en": "Drones – unmanned aircraft that are remotely steered – have proven to be effective in killing a significant number of terrorists, including many of the most important leaders. Weak governments can be made stronger; governments that tolerate or support terrorism must be held accountable.", "zh": "军事力量也扮演着某种角色。基地组织丧失了位于阿富汗的巢穴，正式因为向它提供庇护的塔利班政府被推翻。奥萨马·本·拉登最终被美国特种部队找到并击毙。军事无人机在击毙恐怖组织头目的行动中作用非凡。软弱的政府可以得到加强，纵容乃至支持恐怖主义的政府则必须为此负责。" }

{ "en": "Terrorists and terrorism cannot be eliminated any more than we can rid the world of disease. There will always be those who will resort to force against innocent men, women, and children in pursuit of political goals.", "zh": "但进展不应被称作胜利。恐怖分子和恐怖主义不可能根除，就像我们不可能从地球上消灭疾病一样。总会有人试图对无辜者动用武力以追求其政治目标，不论是对男人、妇女还是儿童。" }

{ "en": "Pakistan remains a sanctuary for Al Qaeda and some of the world’s other most dangerous terrorists. A mixture of instability, government weakness, and ideology in countries such as Yemen, Libya, Somalia, and Nigeria are providing fertile territory for terrorists to organize, train, and mount operations – much as they did in Afghanistan did a decade ago.", "zh": "事实上，恐怖分子在某些领域走在了前头。巴基斯坦仍在为基地组织和世界上其他一些最危险的恐怖分子提供庇护所。由于局势动荡、政府软弱和意识形态等等原因，也门、利比亚、索马里和尼日利亚也在沦为恐怖主义滋生的沃土，它们在那些地方组织、训练、实施行动，就像在十年前的阿富汗一样。旧的组织刚被摧毁，新的组织就冒出头来。" }

{ "en": "We have seen it in Great Britain and the US. The Internet, one of the great inventions of the modern Western world, has shown itself to be a weapon that can be used to incite and train those who wish to cause harm to that world.", "zh": "本土恐怖主义的危险也在增长。我们在英国和美国都看到了这种迹象。互联网，这一现代西方世界的伟大发明，也被当成武器，激励并训练那些试图危害这个世界的人。" }

{ "en": "The question raised in October 2003 by then US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld is no less relevant today: “Are we capturing, killing, or deterring and dissuading more terrorists every day than the madrassas and the radical clerics are recruiting, training, and deploying against us?” All things being equal, we probably are.", "zh": "2003年10月，时任美国国防部长拉姆斯菲尔德曾提出一个问题，至今仍很中肯：“我们每天俘虏、击毙、关押和改造过来的恐怖分子，能比伊斯兰学校和激进宗教人士每天招募、训练和派遣出来反对我们的人数多吗？”如果将一切等量齐观，那我们也许已经做到了。但恐怖分子的任何一点微小成功，对开放社会都意味着高昂的生命和金钱成本，从这个意义上说，我们得不偿失。" }

{ "en": "The establishment of a Palestinian state will not be enough for those terrorists who want to see the elimination of the Jewish state, any more than reaching a compromise over Kashmir will satisfy those Pakistan-based terrorists with bigger agendas vis-à-vis India. Reducing unemployment is desirable, of course, but many terrorists do not come from poverty.", "zh": "那我们该怎么办？可惜没有一蹴而就的办法。巴勒斯坦建国还是不够，因为恐怖分子想要消灭犹太人的国家；在克什米尔问题上达成妥协，也无法满足巴基斯坦恐怖分子对印度更大的领土要求。减少失业当然是件好事，但许多恐怖分子并非穷人出身。帮助中东和其他地方的社会变得更民主有助于缓解边缘化作用，遏制极端主义，但这说起来比做起来容易。" }

{ "en": "But what may be most important, particularly in the Arab and Islamic communities, is to end any acceptance of terrorism. The Nigerian father who warned the US embassy in Lagos that he feared what his own son might do – before that same young man attempted to detonate a bomb aboard a flight to Detroit on Christmas Day 2009 – is an example of just this.", "zh": "当然，我们需要继续想办法，让我们变强，让恐怖分子变弱。但最重要的是阻止恐怖主义以任何方式进行传播，尤其是在阿拉伯和伊斯兰社会。2009年圣诞节，尼日利亚的一位父亲向美国驻拉各斯大使馆警告说，他担心他的儿子会做出可怕的事情来，从而阻止了后者在飞往底特律的航班上引爆一枚炸弹，这就是一个很好的例子。" }

{ "en": "Only when more parents, teachers, and community leaders behave likewise will recruitment of terrorists dry up and law-enforcement authorities receive full cooperation from the populations they police. Terrorism must lose its legitimacy among those who have historically supported or tolerated it before it will lose its potency.", "zh": "只有当更多的父母、教师和社会领袖以这样的方式行动起来，才能令恐怖分子的来源枯竭，执法部门才能获得民众的全力配合。在那些传统上支持或纵容恐怖主义的地方，恐怖主义必须先丧失其合法性，才会进一步丧失能量。" }

{ "en": "Transatlantic Trade for All", "zh": "所有人的跨大西洋贸易" }

{ "en": "WASHINGTON, DC – The negotiations to create a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership between the European Union and the United States are being widely welcomed. British Prime Minister David Cameron has called the TTIP a “once-in-a-generation prize,” citing potential gains of £80 billion ($125.5 billion) each for the EU and the US and £85 billion for the rest of the world.", "zh": "华盛顿—欧盟和美国之间关于成立跨大西洋贸易和投资合作伙伴（TTIP）的谈判受到了广泛的欢迎。英国首相卡梅伦将TTIP称为“一代人只有一次的机会”，认为它将给欧盟和美国各带来800亿英镑的潜在收益，给世界其他地区带来850亿英镑的潜在收益。" }

{ "en": "For a world weary of waiting for the World Trade Organization’s interminable Doha trade round to conclude, even a bilateral trade initiative may seem like a boon, especially when, as a recent Financial Times editorial pointed out, “bilateral” covers half of the world’s economy. But there is a serious downside: The deal could hurt developing-country exporters, unless the EU and the US make a concerted effort to protect these actors’ interests.", "zh": "对于一个等待世贸组织冗长的多哈回合最后结果已经不耐烦的世界来说，即使是双边计划也像是天降恩惠，特别是在《金融时报》最近所指出的“双边”关系包括了世界经济半壁江山的当下。但风险也是巨大的：TTIP协议可能伤害发展中国家的出口，除非欧盟和美国携手保护这些行动方的利益。" }

{ "en": "Given low tariffs in the EU and the US – less than 5%, on average – further preferential reductions will not seriously handicap outsiders. But, when it comes to standards – such as those governing safety, health, and the environment – the market-access requirements are brutal and binary: either you meet the established standard or you do not sell.", "zh": "计划中的契约引起最多兴奋情绪的部分——其对强制性产品标准等监管壁垒的强调——实际上最应该引起关注。欧盟和美国关税很低——平均不到5%——因此进一步的优惠降税并不会严重影响其他国家。但是，在标准问题上——比如涉及安全、健康和环境的标准——市场准入标准是严酷且二分的：要么满足规定的标准，要么别来这里卖东西。" }

{ "en": "As a result, third-country firms’ options will depend on how TTIP standards are established: through harmonization (adoption of a common standard) or mutual recognition (acceptance of goods that meet one another’s established standards). The first option would enable producers everywhere to take advantage of economies of scale.", "zh": "其结果是第三国企业的选择将取决于TTIP标准如何设置：通过协调（采取共同标准）还是通过互相承认（接受满足彼此规定标准的商品和服务）。第一种选择将让世界各地的生产者都能够利用规模经济的优势。但是，在一些场合，协调后的标准可能比某些国家原先的标准更加苛刻。" }

{ "en": "Even though new standards would apply to suppliers from all exporting countries, compliance costs usually vary, meaning that those less equipped to meet higher standards could suffer. In the late 1990’s, when the EU decided to harmonize standards for aflatoxins (a group of toxic compounds produced by certain molds), eight member states – including Italy, the Netherlands, and Spain – raised their national standards substantially, which is likely to have caused African exports of cereals, dried fruits, and nuts to Europe to decline by as much as $670 million.", "zh": "尽管新标准将适用于所有出口国供应商，但合规成本通常各不相同，这意味着更难以满足高标准的企业会遭受损失。20世纪90年代末，欧盟决定协调黄曲霉素标准（黄曲霉素是某些霉菌产生的有毒成分族），八个成员国——包括意大利、荷兰和西班牙——大幅度提高了国家标准，这或许就是非洲国家队欧洲的谷物、水果干和坚果对欧出口下降6.7亿美元的原因。" }

{ "en": "If the policy were extended to third-country firms, it would have a powerful liberalizing impact. For example, Malaysian television producers could choose to comply with, say, America’s easier-to-meet safety standards, then sell the same product in both markets, reaping the benefits of economies of scale while lowering compliance costs.", "zh": "若采取互相承认，那么欧盟和美国将承认彼此的标准或合规评估程序，企业会在各种标准中选择不太苛刻的那种。如果该政策扩展到第三国企业，就会产生极大的自由化作用。比如，马来西亚电视生产商可能选择符合（比如）美国较易符合的安全标准，然后在欧美两地销售同样的产品，既享受了规模经济的好处，又降低了合规成本。" }

{ "en": "If, however, the TTIP excluded third-country firms from the mutual recognition policy, their competitiveness vis-à-vis European and American companies would diminish substantially. Indeed, our research shows that when mutual-recognition agreements include restrictive rules of origin, intra-regional trade increases – at the expense of trade with other countries – and that developing countries tend to suffer most.", "zh": "但是，如果TTIP将第三国企业排除在互相承认政策之外，那么它们相对欧洲和美股公司的竞争力将受到极大的削弱。事实上，我们的研究表明，若互相承诺协议包括严格的来源国限制，则地区内贸易将增加，与其他国家的贸易会削弱，发展中国家损失最大。" }

{ "en": "In fact, excessively constraining rules of origin have proved problematic for some of the EU’s previous recognition agreements, such as those governing professional-services standards. While a Brazilian orange admitted for sale in Portugal can be sold throughout the EU, a Brazilian engineer or accountant licensed in Portugal must fulfill separate licensing requirements to work elsewhere in the EU, hampering much-needed labor mobility by forcing non-European workers to endure costly and inefficient bureaucratic procedures.", "zh": "事实上，欧盟此前的不少承认协议（比如在专业服务标准方面）表明，过度约束的来源地规则很有问题大有问题。尽管获准在葡萄牙出售的巴西橙可以在整个欧盟出售，但获得葡萄牙执照的巴西工程师和会计师仍必须满足欧盟其他地区各自的执业要求，这迫使非欧洲工人忍受费时费力的官僚主义流程，不利于急需的劳动力流动。" }

{ "en": "Furthermore, when it comes to tariffs and standards, WTO rules are not created equal. While they protect countries excluded from bilateral or regional tariff agreements, thereby ensuring that integrated markets do not receive additional advantages, few safeguards exist to shield third countries from the fallout of agreements on mandatory standards.", "zh": "此外，在关税和标准方面，世贸组织规则并不平等。尽管世贸组织规则保护着被双边和地区关税协定排除在外的国家，从而确保一体化市场不会获得其他附加的优势，但保护第三国免受强制性标准协议影响的保护措施几乎不存在。" }

{ "en": "First, they could allow all countries to reap the benefits of a bilateral mutual-recognition deal by agreeing not to impose restrictive rules of origin. Second, where they do consider harmonization, they could favor the less stringent of the original standards, unless there is credible evidence that it would not support the relevant regulatory objective.", "zh": "即使没有国际法，欧盟和美国也可以采取两个动作确保TTIP不会损害发展中经济体。首先，它们可以同意不实施严格的来源地规则，这将使所有国家都能享受到双边互相承认协议的好处。其次，在考虑协调的领域，它们可以倾向于原始标准中较不苛刻的一个，除非有充分的证据表明这样做不利于相关监管目标。这类似于世贸组织的脱离现行国际标准测试。" }

{ "en": "If the EU and the US made these two commitments, the rest of the world could follow the TTIP negotiations with hope, rather than trepidation.", "zh": "如果欧盟和美国实施了这两点，世界其他国家将可以带着希望而不是恐惧追踪TTIP。" }

{ "en": "A Balanced Look at Sino-American Imbalances", "zh": "中美贸易不平衡的平衡观" }

{ "en": "BEIJING – Before July 2007, most economists agreed that global imbalances were the most important threat to global growth. It was argued that the United States’ rising net foreign debt-to-GDP ratio – the result of chronic current-account deficits – would put a sharp brake on capital inflows, in turn weakening the dollar, driving up interest rates, and plunging the US economy into crisis.", "zh": "发自北京——在2007年7月以前，大多数经济学家都认为全球增长的最重大威胁来自于全球贸易不平衡。他们觉得美国净外债与GDP比率的不断上升——这是长期经常账户赤字所引发的后果——将导致资金流入急剧减少，随之削弱美元，而后利率上涨，并最终令美国经济陷入危机当中。" }

{ "en": "But this scenario failed to materialize. Instead, the crisis stemmed from the US sub-prime debacle, which quickly dragged the global economy into its deepest recession since the 1930’s.", "zh": "但这一设想却未能成为现实，事实上本次危机源自于美国次级贷款的崩盘，并当即将全球经济拖入了一场自1930年代以来最为严重的衰退当中。" }

{ "en": "Most economists failed to foresee the economic dynamics that actually led to the crisis, because they failed to pay enough attention to the rapid increase in US total debt. Instead, they focused exclusively on US foreign debt, ignoring household debt (mortgage and consumer debt), public debt, business debt, and financial debt.", "zh": "而大多数经济学家之所以无法预见到危机背后的真正经济驱动力，是因为他们对美国总债务的快速增长缺乏足够的关注。实际上他们把注意力都放在了美国的外债上，却忽视了家庭负债（抵押贷款和消费者债务）、公共负债，商业债务和金融债务等方面的问题。" }

{ "en": "In particular, they should have paid greater attention to the sustainability of US mortgage and consumer debt. In 2007, the mortgage and consumer debt-to-GDP ratio was more than 90%, compared to 24% for net foreign debt.", "zh": "他们尤其应当对美国抵押贷款和消费者债务的可持续性给予更多的关注。在2007年，上述两项负债与GDP的比率已经上升到90%以上，而与此同时净外债的相关比率只有24%。" }

{ "en": "Of course, the various components of debt differ considerably in their character and sources of financing – and thus in their sustainability. But all parts of a country’s total debt and how it is financed are interconnected.", "zh": "当然，债务的不同组成部分也因各自的特性和资金来源而大不相同——而其可持续性也是如此。但一国总债务的各个组成部分及其资助方式之间显然是有所关联的。" }

{ "en": "First, funds from different sources of finance are interchangeable to a certain degree: deficiency of funds for one component of total debt can be supplemented by surplus funds originally aimed at financing other components. Second, troubles in any single component of total debt will have an impact on all the other components.", "zh": "这意味着两点，首先：来自不同融资来源的资金在某种程度上是可互换的：总债务中某项资金出现的赤字可以用原本提供给其他用途的多余资金来填补。其二，总债务中某一部分所导致的问题将对其他部分造成影响。" }

{ "en": "After the subprime crisis erupted, mortgage and consumer debt was paid down by households either with their savings or by default. The fall in US total debt, and the narrowing of the financing gap between total debt and domestic funds, led to a significant improvement in the US current-account deficit in 2008-2009, disproving US Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke’s claim that the deficit was caused by a global “saving glut.”", "zh": "在次贷危机爆发之后，美国家庭只能用储蓄来支付抵押贷款和消费者债务，或者被迫放弃偿还。美国总债务的下降，以及总债务和国内资金之间财政缺口的缩窄，都使得美国经常账户赤字状况在2008-2009财年大大改善，也证明美联储主席伯南克宣称该赤字是由全球“储蓄偏好”所引发的观点是错误的。事实上尽管美元在避险需求下升值，美国经常账户状况却得到了巩固。" }

{ "en": "To offset the negative impact of private-sector deleveraging on growth, the US government has maintained expansionary fiscal and monetary policies. Now, with household debt sustained on a knife-edge after feverish government intervention, the fiscal position has deteriorated dramatically and the current-account balance has worsened again.", "zh": "但不幸的是，随着私人部门去杠杆化以及家庭储蓄的增加，由负债和消费驱动的美国经济陷入了衰退。为了减少私人部门去杠杆化对经济增长的负面影响，美国政府采取了一系列扩张性的货币和财政政策。如今政府大力干预后的家庭负债状况依然处于危险边缘，同时财政状况急剧恶化，经常账户平衡状况也再度变差。" }

{ "en": "Sustainability of public debt has replaced sustainability of private debt as the biggest threat to financial stability, and the focus of debate about the US current account has shifted from the sustainability of foreign debt to the impact of reducing the external deficit on growth and employment. The dilemma facing US policymakers is how to stimulate growth while lowering the level of total debt.", "zh": "公共债务的可持续性已经取代私人债务成为美国金融稳定的最大问题，而针对美国经常账户状况的争论焦点也从外债的可持续性转移到外部赤字降低对增长和就业的影响。对此美国的政策制定者目前陷入了困境：一方面要促进增长，另一方面又得降低总债务水平。" }

{ "en": "The most important way to achieve both objectives is to increase exports by strengthening US competitiveness. But where will increased competitiveness come from?", "zh": "而实现这两大目标的最重要方式就是透过提升美国国家竞争力的方式来增加出口。但这些竞争力的提升又从何而来？，" }

{ "en": "Because rapid fiscal deterioration now has investors worrying about capital losses on US government securities, devaluation would make foreigners more hesitant to finance America’s budget deficit. If foreign financing is not forthcoming, yields on US government debt will rise and the US economy will fall back into recession.", "zh": "将美元贬值的做法能在短期内提升美国的竞争力，但却非长久之策。因为财政状况的迅速恶化已经令投资者们对自己美国政府债券上的资本损失忧虑不已，此外贬值也将使外国人更不愿意资助美国的预算赤字。如果得不到外国资金，美国政府债务的收益率将被迫提升而美国经济也将重新陷入衰退。" }

{ "en": "In the long run, America’s growth pattern must undergo a structural shift from reliance on debt and consumption one based on Americans vaunted capacity for creativity and innovation. Only then will America improve its competitiveness enough to allow the government to reduce both private and public debt to sustainable levels while maintaining a respectable growth rate.", "zh": "长期来说，美国的发展模式必须由原本对负债和消费的依赖转向美国人引以为荣的创新能力。只有这样美国才能真正提升其竞争力，并使政府可以在保持合理增长率的同时将私人和公共债务都降低到一个可持续的水平上。" }

{ "en": "In the short run, the US current-account deficit will remain, regardless of which country runs bilateral surpluses. Thus, China’s continued reinvestment of its current-account surplus in US government securities is of utmost important for US growth and financial stability.", "zh": "但提升竞争力和减少总债务这两个目标都不可能一蹴而就。无论对其拥有双边贸易顺差的是哪一个国家，美国的经常账户赤字将在短期内继续存在。因此中国将其贸易盈余持续投资在美国政府债券上的行为对美国的经济增长和金融稳定都是极为重要的。" }

{ "en": "Given that America benefits mightily from China’s purchases of US government securities, it is difficult to understand why the US government and Congress have been complaining so much about the bilateral current-account deficit. It is also difficult to grasp why China is so reluctant to reduce its bilateral surplus, given meager returns on its massive holdings of US government securities and a sustained risk of large capital losses in the future.", "zh": "考虑到美国在中国购买美国国债方面获取的重大利益，我们很难理解美国政府和国会为何总是对中美双边经常账户赤字大肆抱怨。而于此同时，我们也难以解释中国为何不愿减少其双边贸易盈余，因为大规模持有美国政府债券回报极低，而且还存在着巨额资本流失风险。" }

{ "en": "The good news is that, following President Hu Jintao’s recent visit to Washington, both America and China have been taking positive steps to resolve their differences over the bilateral current-account balance. That augurs well for a more rational and constructive Sino-American dialogue on global imbalances, which would certainly benefit the global economy.", "zh": "但好消息是，在中国国家主席胡锦涛最近的访美之行中，中美两国都在解决双边贸易不平衡方面做出了积极的举措。这预示着一个更加理性也更富建设性的中美全球贸易不平衡对话，而这也将对全球经济有所裨益。" }

{ "en": "A Banking Union Baby Step", "zh": "银行联盟第一步" }

{ "en": "BRUSSELS – At the beginning of the financial crisis, it was said that banks were, in Charles Goodhart’s crisp phrase, “international in life, but national in death.” At the time (2008-2009), large international banks had to be rescued by their home countries’ governments when they ran into trouble.", "zh": "布鲁塞尔—金融危机开始时，人们用查尔斯·古德哈特（Charles Goodhart）的名言来描述银行：“生而国际，死而民族。”当是时（2008—2009年），国际大银行在深陷困境时不得不由母国政府出手相救。但如今，欧洲的问题与此正好相反，银行“生而民族，死而欧洲”。" }

{ "en": "In Spain, for example, local savings banks (cajas) financed an outsize real-estate boom. As the boom turned to bust, the losses threatened to overwhelm the capacity of the Spanish state, and the problem became European, because it threatened the very survival of the euro.", "zh": "比如，在西班牙，地方储蓄银行是超级地产繁荣的融资提供者。随着繁荣变为萧条，由此产生的损失已快要超过了西班牙整个国家的能力，这一问题变成了欧洲问题，因为事关欧元存亡。" }

{ "en": "National supervisors always tend to minimize problems at home. Their instinct (and their bureaucratic interest) is to defend their countries’ “national champion” bank(s) abroad.", "zh": "西班牙的状况是一个更大问题的症状。国家层面的监管者总是试图最小化国内问题。他们的本能（也是他们官僚主义利益之所在）是捍卫“国宝”（national champion）银行在国外的表现。" }

{ "en": "Until recently, the Spanish authorities maintained that the problems in their country’s real-estate sector were temporary. To acknowledge the truth would have meant admitting that for years they had overlooked the build-up of an unsustainable construction boom that now threatens to bankrupt the entire country.", "zh": "但他们对辨认国内问题的抵触更加严重。直到最近，西班牙当局才不再坚持该国房地产部门问题不是暂时性的。承认真相意味着多年来他们忽略了不可持续建设繁荣的风险，以至于如今整个国家都陷入了破产危险。" }

{ "en": "In the case of Ireland, the situation was initially not much different. When problems started to surface, the finance minister at the time initially claimed that the country would carry out “the cheapest bank rescue ever.”", "zh": "在爱尔兰，最初的情况与西班牙并没有太大不同。当问题开始浮现时，时任财政部长宣称爱尔兰将实行“史上成本最小的银行救援”。" }

{ "en": "Given national supervisors’ predictable tendency not to recognize problems at home, it seemed natural that the cost of cleaning up insolvent banks should also be borne at the national level. It thus seemed to make sense that even in the eurozone, banking supervision remained largely national.", "zh": "不难预料，国家级监管者总是倾向于对国内问题视而不见，因此，清算资不抵债银行的成本应该由各国自行承担似乎是自然而然的事情。于是，即使是在欧元区，银行监管大体上仍维持各国各自为政的局面似乎也不无道理。新近成立的欧洲银行局所有用的权限比日常工作主要根据国内情况进行的国家级监管者大不了多少。" }

{ "en": "But reality has shown that this approach is not tenable. Problems might originate at the national level, but, owing to monetary union, they quickly threaten the stability of the entire eurozone banking system.", "zh": "但现实已经证明，这条道路走不通。问题也许肇始于国家层面，但是，由于货币联盟的存在，它们很快会威胁到整个欧元区银行系统的稳定性。" }

{ "en": "At their June summit, Europe’s leaders finally recognized the need to rectify this situation, transferring responsibility for banking supervision in the eurozone to the European Central Bank. Given that financial integration is particularly strong within the monetary union, putting the ECB in charge was an obvious choice.", "zh": "在6月峰会上，欧洲领导人最终意识到修正这一情况、将欧元区银行监管职能移交给欧洲央行的重要性。作为货币联盟，金融一体化在欧元区非常牢固，这使得欧洲央行成了不二之选。" }

{ "en": "Moreover, the ECB already bears de facto responsibility for the stability of the eurozone’s banking system. But, until now, it had to lend massive amounts to banks without being able to judge their soundness, because all of that information was in the hands of national authorities who guarded it jealously and typically denied problems until it was too late.", "zh": "此外，欧洲央行事实上早已承担起了维持欧元区银行系统稳定的职能。但是，迄今为止，欧洲央行仍必须在无法判断银行稳健程度的情况下向它们大规模贷款，因为所有信息都掌握在国家级监管者手中，而后者对此死抓不放，出了问题总是拼命掩盖，直到无法收场为止。" }

{ "en": "Putting the ECB in charge should also help to stop the creeping disintegration process, which is not publicly visible, but is very real nonetheless. Just ask any of the large international banking groups headquartered in financially stressed eurozone countries.", "zh": "让欧洲央行来行使此职能还有助于阻止正在潜滋暗长的去一体化过程，该过程尽管还没有进入公众视野，但已成为现实威胁。只消问问坐落于受困欧元区国家的任何大型国际银行集团总部便可推知一二。" }

{ "en": "Consider the case of a bank headquartered in Italy, but with an important subsidiary in Germany. The German operations naturally generate a surplus of funds (given that savings in Germany far exceed investment on average).", "zh": "就拿总部设在意大利的某家一行来说吧，这家银行在德国设有一家重要分行。德国分行自然手握资金盈余（因为平均而言德国储蓄远高于投资）。总行希望使用这笔资金增强整个集团的流动性。但德国监管当局认为意大利存在风险，因此反对资金转移。" }

{ "en": "It would like to see the “internal capital market” operate as much as possible. Here, too, it makes sense to have the ECB in charge as a neutral arbiter with respect to these opposing interests.", "zh": "母国（意大利）监管者的利益正好与此相反。它希望看到“内部资本市场”操作，越多越好。在这里，让欧洲央行来充当尊重这些对立利益的中立仲裁者才是合适的。" }

{ "en": "But, while putting the ECB in charge of banking supervision solves one problem, it creates another: can national authorities still be held responsible for saving banks that they no longer supervise?", "zh": "但是，尽管让欧洲央行行使银行监管职能可以解决问题，但也会造成另一个问题：国家级监管当局是否需要继续对其不再行使监管职能的储蓄银行负责？" }

{ "en": "Officially, this has not yet been acknowledged. But that is often the way that European integration proceeds: an incomplete step in one area later requires further steps in related areas.", "zh": "经济（和政治）逻辑意味着很快欧元区又需要一个共同银行援助基金。这一需要尚未被正式承认。但此乃欧洲一体化进程中的典型做法：在某领域出台的不完整措施要求在相关领域出台后续措施。" }

{ "en": "This incremental approach has worked well in the past; indeed, today’s European Union resulted from it. But a financial crisis does not give policymakers the time that they once had to explain to voters why one step required another.", "zh": "这一增量办法在过去效果甚丰；事实上，今天的欧盟就是这样产生的。但金融危机使得决策者不再像过去那样有时间向选民解释为什么一项措施会带来另一项措施。他们需要大大加快动作不乏，这样才能拯救欧元。" }

{ "en": "The Renewed Promise of Abenomics", "zh": "安倍经济学的新一轮承诺" }

{ "en": "TOKYO – Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party scored a decisive victory in the December 14 parliamentary election, with Japanese voters demonstrating their overwhelming approval of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s macroeconomic policy agenda. Though voter turnout was relatively low, owing largely to the somewhat technical nature of the issues, the election’s message was clear: most Japanese abhor the prospect of a return to the grim economic trajectory that prevailed in Japan before “Abenomics.”", "zh": "发自东京——日本自民党在今年12月14日的国会大选中取得了决定性的胜利，因为日本选民们一面倒地支持首相安倍晋三的宏观经济政策议程。虽然选民投票率还是相对较低——这在很大程度上源自于这类事务的某种技术性本质——但这场选举所传达出来的信息也非常清晰：大多数日本人都不愿意回到“安倍经济学”之前那种低迷经济轨道中去。" }

{ "en": "When the first “arrow” of Abenomics – a fiscal stimulus program – was launched nearly two years ago, asset markets' immediate response was positive. The second arrow of Abenomics – monetary easing – intensified these effects.", "zh": "当安倍经济学的第一支箭——财政刺激计划——在两年前射出之后，资产市场立刻作出了积极回应。而安倍经济学的第二支箭——货币宽松——则强化了这一效应。" }

{ "en": "In the last two years, Japan’s stock market has almost doubled in value, increasing the wealth of Japanese consumers. Moreover, the yen has fallen by nearly one-third against the US dollar, from around ¥80 to nearly ¥120 per dollar, invigorating Japan’s export industries.", "zh": "在过去两年中，日本股票市场的市值几乎翻了一倍，使消费者的财富得到了增长。此外，日元对美元贬值了近三分之一，从原来的约80日元兑1美元下降到近120日元，令日本的出口工业蓬勃发展。" }

{ "en": "Even more encouraging are developments in the labor market, which, unlike those in asset markets, reflect outcomes, not expectations. Here, too, the news is good.", "zh": "更令人鼓舞的则是劳动力市场的变化发展，跟资产市场不同的是，这反映出了结果，而非仅仅是预期。在这方面形势也十分喜人。劳动力市场得到了巩固，失业率维持在3.5%，而职位和求职者的比率则高于1。" }

{ "en": "But the downturn, which resulted from April’s consumption-tax hike – from 5% to 8% – cannot be blamed on Abenomics. Indeed, Abe was honoring a law enacted by the previous government, led by the Democratic Party of Japan.", "zh": "无可否认，这其中还存在的一些挫折：日本的GDP在第二和第三季度出现了收缩。但这一由于四月份提升消费税（从5%提到8%）所导致的下滑状况不能归罪于安倍经济学。事实上，安倍只是在遵从由上届日本民主党政府所通过的一项法律而已。" }