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{ "en": "These problems are now being compounded by the growth slowdown in China, the fulcrum of global trade.", "zh": "如今，这些问题因为全球贸易的支柱 — — 中国增长放缓而雪上加霜。" }

{ "en": "And the worst is yet to come.", "zh": "而最坏的时刻还没有到来。" }

{ "en": "China’s huge industrial overcapacity and property glut needs to be wound down; the hubris driving its global acquisitions must be reined in; and its corruption networks have to be dismantled.", "zh": "中国巨大的工业过剩产能和房地产过剩还没有消化；推动其全球兼并的傲慢必须得到遏制；其腐败网络也必须打破。" }

{ "en": "In short, the factors that dragged down the global economy in 2015 will persist – and in some cases even intensify – in the new year.", "zh": "简言之，2015年拖累全球经济的因素在新的一年里还会持续 — — 有的甚至还会加剧。" }

{ "en": "Emerging economies will remain weak.", "zh": "新兴经济体将继续疲软。" }

{ "en": "The eurozone, having enjoyed a temporary reprieve from austerity, will be constrained by listless global trade.", "zh": "暂时摆脱了紧缩的欧元区将受到全球贸易萎靡的束缚。" }

{ "en": "Rising interest rates on corporate bonds portend slower growth in the US.", "zh": "公司债券利率的提高预示美国增长减速。" }

{ "en": "China’s collapsing asset values could trigger financial turbulence.", "zh": "中国资产价值崩盘可能引发金融动荡。" }

{ "en": "And policymakers are adrift, with little political leverage to stem these trends.", "zh": "而决策者就像是无根之木，没有政治手段来遏制这些趋势。" }

{ "en": "The IMF should stop forecasting renewed growth and issue a warning that the global economy will remain weak and vulnerable unless world leaders act energetically to spur innovation and growth.", "zh": "IMF应该停止更新增长预测，而是发布警告：全球经济将继续保持萎靡和脆弱，除非世界领导人着力刺激创新和增长。" }

{ "en": "Such an effort is long overdue.", "zh": "这样的措施早就应该实行了。" }

{ "en": "Trumpian Uncertainty", "zh": "特朗普的不确定性" }

{ "en": "NEW YORK – Every January, I try to craft a forecast for the coming year.", "zh": "发自纽约 — — 每年一月，我都会尝试对未来一年作出预测。" }

{ "en": "Economic forecasting is notoriously difficult; but, notwithstanding the truth expressed in Harry Truman’s request for a one-armed economist (who wouldn’t be able to say “on the other hand”), my record has been credible.", "zh": "经济预测是件极为困难的事情；以至于哈里·杜鲁门总统（Harry Truman）曾要求手下给他找一位独臂经济学家 — — 这样此人就无法模棱两可地说“另一方面（on the other hand ） ” 了 — — 但一直以来我的预测还是靠谱的。" }

{ "en": "In recent years, I correctly foresaw that, in the absence of stronger fiscal stimulus (which was not forthcoming in either Europe or the United States), recovery from the Great Recession of 2008 would be slow.", "zh": "这几年来我正确地预见到，在缺乏更强有力财政刺激政策（在欧洲或美国都一样）的情况下，2008年大衰退的复苏进程将较为缓慢。" }

{ "en": "In making these forecasts, I have relied more on analysis of underlying economic forces than on complex econometric models.", "zh": "同时我的预测更多地依赖于对基本经济力量的分析，而非复杂的经济计量模型。" }

{ "en": "For example, at the beginning of 2016, it seemed clear that the deficiencies of global aggregate demand that have been manifest for the last several years were unlikely to change dramatically.", "zh": "例如在2016年初，很显然在过去几年中呈现的全球总需求不足将不大可能出现巨大改变。" }

{ "en": "Thus, I thought that forecasters of a stronger recovery were looking at the world through rose-tinted glasses. Economic developments unfolded much as I anticipated.", "zh": "因此我认为那些相信会实现强劲复苏的预测者是过于乐观了，最终实际的经济发展也与我的预测一致。" }

{ "en": "Not so the political events of 2016.", "zh": "2016年的政治事件也是如此。" }

{ "en": "I had been writing for years that unless growing inequality – especially in the US, but also in many countries throughout the world – was addressed, there would be political consequences.", "zh": "多年来我一直指出，除非在全球许多国家（尤其是美国）日益严重的不平等问题得到解决，否则必将产生某些政治后果。" }

{ "en": "But inequality continued to worsen – with striking data showing that average life expectancy in the US was on the decline.", "zh": "但不平等状况依然持续恶化 — — 令人震惊的数据显示，美国的预期平均寿命正在下降。" }

{ "en": "These results were foreshadowed by a study last year, by Anne Case and Angus Deaton, which showed that life expectancy was on the decline for large segments of the population – including America’s so-called angry men of the Rust Belt.", "zh": "正如安娜·凯斯（Anne Case）和安格斯·迪顿（Angus Deaton）的一项研究表明：美国大部分人口的预期寿命都在下降，包括所谓北部老工业区的愤怒居民们。" }

{ "en": "But, with the incomes of the bottom 90% having stagnated for close to a third of a century (and declining for a significant proportion), the health data simply confirmed that things were not going well for very large swaths of the country.", "zh": "而由于90％的底层人士收入增长已经停滞了将近1/3个世纪（且其中很大比例都出现了下滑 ） ， 医疗数据清晰明白地证实了美国大部分地区处境不妙。" }

{ "en": "And while America might be at the extreme of this trend, things were little better elsewhere.", "zh": "但美国可能处于这种趋势的极端，其他地方的情况会好一点。" }

{ "en": "But, if it seemed clear that there would be political consequences, their form and timing were far less obvious.", "zh": "但如果这似乎必然预示着某些政治后果，那么其形式和时间就不那么明显了。" }

{ "en": "Why did the backlash in the US come just when the economy seemed to be on the mend, rather than earlier?", "zh": "为什么美国的下行会在经济恢复期出现，而不是更为提前？" }

{ "en": "And why did it manifest itself in a lurch to the right?", "zh": "为何这会表现为政治右倾？" }

{ "en": "After all, it was the Republicans who had blocked assistance to those losing their jobs as a result of the globalization they pushed assiduously. It was the Republicans who, in 26 states, refused to allow the expansion of Medicaid, thereby denying health insurance to those at the bottom.", "zh": "毕竟正是共和党人拒绝援助那些因他们全力推动全球化而失业的人们，是共和党人否决在26个州扩大医疗补助，从而拒绝为底层的人提供医疗保险。" }

{ "en": "And why was the victor somebody who made his living from taking advantage of others, openly admitted not paying his fair share of taxes, and made tax avoidance a point of pride?", "zh": "为什么一个依靠占他人便宜来谋生，公开承认并未支付合理份额税收，并以避税为荣的人会成为大选最终赢家？" }

{ "en": "Donald Trump grasped the spirit of the time: things weren’t going well, and many voters wanted change.", "zh": "唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）抓住了时代精神：境况不佳，许多选民都想来点改变。" }

{ "en": "Now they will get it: there will be no business as usual. But seldom has there been more uncertainty.", "zh": "但如今他们会意识到真相：再也没有什么常态可言，但也不会存在更多的不确定性。" }

{ "en": "Which policies Trump will pursue remains unknown, to say nothing of which will succeed or what the consequences will be.", "zh": "特朗普将实施何种政策仍然是未知之数，更遑论哪些政策将会成功或者后果将是什么了。" }

{ "en": "Trump seems hell-bent on having a trade war.", "zh": "特朗普似乎拼命想发起一场贸易战。" }

{ "en": "But how will China and Mexico respond?", "zh": "那么中国和墨西哥将如何应对？" }

{ "en": "Trump may well understand that what he proposes will violate World Trade Organization rules, but he may also know that it will take a long time for the WTO to rule against him.", "zh": "特朗普清楚知道他的提议会违反世贸规则，但他估计也明白世贸组织需要很长时间来推翻这一做法。" }

{ "en": "And by then, America’s trade account may have been rebalanced.", "zh": "到那时候美国的贸易账户可能早就实现重新平衡了。" }

{ "en": "But two can play that game: China can take similar actions, though its response is likely to be more subtle.", "zh": "但这个博弈可是双方面的：中国也可以采取类似但更为隐秘微妙的行动。" }

{ "en": "If a trade war were to break out, what would happen?", "zh": "那么如果真爆发一场贸易战的话，将会出现何种状况？" }

{ "en": "Trump may have reason to think he could win; after all, China is more dependent on exports to the US than the US is on exports to China, which gives the US an advantage.", "zh": "特朗普可能觉得自己有把握能赢；毕竟中国对向美国出口的依赖要强于美国对中国出口，这是美国的优势。" }

{ "en": "But a trade war is not a zero-sum game. The US stands to lose as well.", "zh": "但贸易战可不是一场此消彼长的零和游戏，美国也会输。" }

{ "en": "China may be more effective in targeting its retaliation to cause acute political pain.", "zh": "中国的报复可能更具针对性，足以对美国造成严重的政治压力。" }

{ "en": "And the Chinese may be in a better position to respond to US attempts to inflict pain on them than the US is to respond to the pain that China might inflict on Americans.", "zh": "而中国人可能比美国人处于更有利的地位来应对对方施加的危机。" }

{ "en": "It’s anybody’s guess who can stand the pain better.", "zh": "大家都在猜测谁的承受能力更强：是普通民众在泥潭里长期挣扎的美国？" }

{ "en": "Will it be the US, where ordinary citizens have already suffered for so long, or China, which, despite troubled times, has managed to generate growth in excess of 6%?", "zh": "还是即便在困难时期也得以实现超过6％增长的中国？" }

{ "en": "More broadly, the Republican/Trump agenda, with its tax cuts even more weighted toward the rich than the standard GOP recipe would imply, is based on the idea of trickle-down prosperity – a continuation of the Reagan era’s supply-side economics, which never actually worked.", "zh": "更宏观地看来，共和党/特朗普的议程 — — 其税收削减甚至比标准的共和党方案更为偏袒富人 — — 意味着这些政策都是基于涓滴繁荣（富人多赚钱消费从而穷人有工作）的理念，也是里根时代供给侧经济学政策的延续 — — 但这一政策从未奏效过。" }

{ "en": "Fire-breathing rhetoric, or raving three a.m. tweets, may assuage the anger of those left behind by the Reagan revolution, at least for a while.", "zh": "惹火的言论或者半夜三点在推特上发表的胡言乱语至少能在一段时间内安抚那些被里根革命所抛弃的愤世者。" }

{ "en": "But for how long?", "zh": "但这能维持要多久呢？" }

{ "en": "And what happens then?", "zh": "随后又会是何种状况？" }

{ "en": "Trump might like to repeal the ordinary laws of economics, as he goes about his version of voodoo economics. But he can’t.", "zh": "特朗普可能喜欢颠覆常规的经济学法则，因为他乐于奉行自己那一套巫术经济学，但这是行不通的。" }

{ "en": "Still, as the world’s largest economy leads the way into uncharted political waters in 2017 and beyond, it would be foolhardy for a mere mortal to attempt a forecast, other than to state the obvious: the waters will almost certainly be choppy, and many – if not most – pundit ships will sink along the way.", "zh": "而随着美国这个全球最大经济体在2017年及以后的年月进入一片未知的政治水域，除了指出一些显而易见的事实之外，任何人类的预测都是不智的：这片水域几乎肯定会激起风浪，而许多 — — 如果不是大多数 — — 预测专家的航船也将随之倾覆沉没。" }

{ "en": "9/11 and the New Authoritarianism", "zh": "9/11和新独裁专制主义" }

{ "en": "Five years after the attacks on the Twin Towers in New York and the Pentagon in Washington, “9/11” is no longer a mere date.", "zh": "袭击纽约双子塔和华盛顿五角大楼五年后 ， “ 9/11”已经不再仅仅是一个日期了。" }

{ "en": "It has entered the history books as the beginning of something new, a new era perhaps, but in any case a time of change.", "zh": "它已经作为一个变革时代的某种开端或者是一个新的时代的开始而载入史册。" }

{ "en": "The terrorist bombings in Madrid and London and elsewhere will also be remembered; but it is “9/11” that has become the catchphrase, almost like “August 1914.”", "zh": "恐怖分子在马德里和伦敦以及其他地方制造的爆炸事件也将被人铭记；但是，只有“9/11”几乎像“1914年8月”那样成为了流行语。" }

{ "en": "But was it really a war that started on September 11, 2001?", "zh": "但是，那果真是一场开于2001年9月11日的战争吗？" }

{ "en": "Not all are happy about this American notion.", "zh": "并不是所有人都赞同这一美国式的观点。" }

{ "en": "During the heyday of Irish terrorism in the UK, successive British governments went out of their way not to concede to the IRA the notion that a war was being waged.", "zh": "当爱尔兰恐怖主义在英国猖獗之际，各届英国政府都竭力不屈从于爱尔兰共和军的观点，即正在进行一场战争。" }

{ "en": "“War” would have meant acceptance of the terrorists as legitimate enemies, in a sense as equals in a bloody contest for which there are accepted rules of engagement.", "zh": "“战争”将会意味着把恐怖分子接受为合法的敌人，其含义与具有认同的交战规则的一场血腥战争的对等体相同。" }

{ "en": "This is neither a correct description nor a useful terminology for terrorist acts, which are more correctly described as criminal.", "zh": "这既非对恐怖主义行为的正确描述，也不是有用的词汇。 恐怖分子应该更为准确地被称为罪犯。" }

{ "en": "By calling them war – and naming an opponent, usually al-Qaeda and its leader, Osama bin Laden – the United States government has justified domestic changes that, before the 9/11 attacks, would have been unacceptable in any free country.", "zh": "但是通过称之为战争、并把基地组织及其领导人本拉登点名为对手，美国政府给某些国内变化提供了理由。 这些国内变化在9/11袭击之前是不会被任何自由国家所接受的。" }

{ "en": "Most of these changes were embodied in the so-called “USA Patriot Act.”", "zh": "这些变化的大多数都体现在所谓的“美国爱国者法案”上。" }

{ "en": "Though some of the changes simply involved administrative regulations, the Patriot Act’s overall effect was to erode the great pillars of liberty, such as habeas corpus , the right to recourse to an independent court whenever the state deprives an individual of his freedom.", "zh": "尽管某些变化仅仅涉及到行政规定，但是，爱国者法案的整体效果却是侵蚀自由的支柱，例如人身保护，也就是无论何时国家剥夺个人自由，均有向独立法院寻求救助的权利。" }

{ "en": "From an early date, the prison camp at Guantánamo Bay in Cuba became the symbol of something unheard of: the arrest without trial of “illegal combatants” who are deprived of all human rights.", "zh": "很久以来，古巴关塔那摩湾的战俘营成为了闻所未闻的象征，也就是不经审判逮捕被剥夺所有人权的“非法战斗人员 ” 。" }

{ "en": "The world now wonders how many more of these non-human humans are there in how many places.", "zh": "如今，世界并不知道在多少地方还有多少更多的遭受非人待遇的人。" }

{ "en": "For everyone else, a kind of state of emergency was proclaimed that has allowed state interference in essential civil rights.", "zh": "对于其他所有人而言，好像是宣布了某种紧急状态，允许国家干涉基本民权。" }

{ "en": "Controls at borders have become an ordeal for many, and police persecution now burdens quite a few.", "zh": "边境检查已经成为许多人的煎熬，警察起诉给很多人带来了负担。" }

{ "en": "A climate of fear has made life hard for anyone who looks suspicious or acts suspiciously, notably for Muslims.", "zh": "一种恐惧的气候让任何看似可疑或者行为可疑的人、特别是穆斯林生活困难。" }

{ "en": "Such restrictions on freedom did not meet with much public opposition when they were adopted.", "zh": "当采取这些限制自由的措施的时候并没有遇到很多公众的反对。" }

{ "en": "On the contrary, by and large it was the critics, not the supporters, of these measures who found themselves in trouble.", "zh": "相反，总体而言，那些措施的批评者，而非支持者发现遇到了麻烦。" }

{ "en": "In Britain, where Prime Minister Tony Blair supported the US attitude entirely, the government introduced similar measures and even offered a new theory.", "zh": "在英国，布莱尔首相全力支持美国的态度，政府引入了类似的措施，甚至提出了一个新的理论。" }

{ "en": "Blair was the first to argue that security is the first freedom.", "zh": "布莱尔第一个主张安全是第一自由。" }

{ "en": "In other words, liberty is not the right of individuals to define their own lives, but the right of the state to restrict individual freedom in the name of a security that only the state can define.", "zh": "换言之，自由并非是个人确定自身生活的权利，而是国家以安全的名义限制个人自由的权利。 只有国家才能确定安全的含义。" }

{ "en": "This is the beginning of a new authoritarianism.", "zh": "这就是一个新的独裁主义的开始。" }

{ "en": "The problem exists in all countries affected by the threat of terrorism, though in many it has not become quite as specific.", "zh": "这一问题存在于所有受到恐怖主义威胁的国家，尽管在许多国家中这已经变得非常具体。" }

{ "en": "In most countries of continental Europe, “9/11” has remained an American date.", "zh": "在大多数欧洲大陆国家 ， ” 9/11“已经成为一个美国人的日子。" }

{ "en": "There is even a debate – and indeed some evidence – concerning the question of whether involvement in the “war against terrorism” has actually increased the threat of terrorist acts.", "zh": "甚至还有人辩论，而且确实还有证据表明，参与到“反恐战争”之中是否实际上增加了恐怖主义行动的威胁。" }

{ "en": "Germans certainly use this argument to stay out of the action wherever possible.", "zh": "德国人当然在可能的情况下利用这一论点置身度外。" }

{ "en": "This stance, however, has not prevented the spread of something for which a German word is used in other languages, too: Angst .", "zh": "但是，这一立场并没有防止德语中所说的忧虑的扩散。" }

{ "en": "A diffuse anxiety is gaining ground.", "zh": "一种弥散性的焦虑正在扩大。" }

{ "en": "People feel uneasy and worried, especially when traveling.", "zh": "人们感到不安，特别是在旅行的时候。" }

{ "en": "Any train accident or airplane crash is now at first suspected of being an act of terrorism.", "zh": "任何一个火车事故或者飞机坠毁现在都首先被怀疑是恐怖主义行为。" }

{ "en": "Thus, 9/11 has meant, directly or indirectly, a great shock, both psychologically and to our political systems.", "zh": "这样，9/11已经直接或间接地意味着一个巨大的震惊事件，在心理上以及对于政治体系而言都是如此。" }

{ "en": "While terrorism is fought in the name of democracy, the fight has in fact led to a distinct weakening of democracy, owing to official legislation and popular angst.", "zh": "尽管以民主的名义与恐怖主义作战，实际上这一斗争由于官方的立法以及民众的忧虑而已经导致对民主明显的削弱。" }

{ "en": "One of the worrying features of the 9/11 attacks is that it is hard to see their purpose beyond the perpetrators’ resentment of the West and its ways.", "zh": "9/11攻击的令人担忧的特性之一就是除了罪犯们仇恨西方及其生活方式之外，很难看到他们的目的。" }

{ "en": "But the West’s key features, democracy and the rule of law, have taken a far more severe battering at the hands of their defenders than by their attackers.", "zh": "但是西方社会的主要特征，即民主和法治却已经在捍卫者手中遭到了严重的损害，其程度超过远远超过其攻击者。" }

{ "en": "Two steps, above all, are needed to restore confidence in liberty within the democracies affected by the legacy of 9/11.", "zh": "最重要的是，需要采取两个步骤来在受到9/11后果影响的��主国家恢复对自由的信心。" }

{ "en": "First, we must make certain that the relevant legislation to meet the challenge of terrorism is strictly temporary.", "zh": "首先，我们必须确保应对恐怖主义挑战的相关立法是严格具有时限的。" }

{ "en": "Some of today’s restrictions on habeas corpus and civil liberties have sunset clauses restricting their validity; all such rules should be re-examined by parliaments regularly.", "zh": "当今的某些对人身自由以及民权的限制含有限制其时效的废止条款。 所有这些法规都应当定期接受议会的重新审查。" }

{ "en": "Second, and more importantly, our leaders must seek to calm, rather than exploit, public anxiety.", "zh": "第二，也是更为重要的是，我们的领导人应当力求平息、而不是利用公众的焦虑。" }

{ "en": "The terrorists with whom we are currently at “war” cannot win, because their dark vision will never gain broad popular legitimacy.", "zh": "我们目前“交战”的恐怖分子无法获胜，因为他们的黑暗的观点永远不会赢得广泛的公众合法认可。" }

{ "en": "That is all the more reason for democrats to stand tall in defending our values – first and foremost by acting in accordance with them.", "zh": "这也就是民主派人士应当身先士卒、首要地以遵循我们的价值观的方式来捍卫它们的原因。" }

{ "en": "9/11 in Perspective", "zh": "9·11：十年后的盘点" }

{ "en": "NEW YORK – It was a decade ago that 19 terrorists took control of four planes, flew two into the twin towers of the World Trade Center, hit the Pentagon with a third, and crashed the fourth in a field in Pennsylvania after passengers resisted and made it impossible for the terrorists to complete their malevolent mission.", "zh": "纽约 — — 十年前，19名恐怖分子劫持了四架民航客机，其中两架撞上世贸中心双子塔，第三架撞击了五角大楼，第四架在乘客的反抗下无法完成袭击，坠毁于宾夕法尼亚旷野。" }

{ "en": "In a matter of hours, more than 3,000 innocent people, mostly Americans, but also people from 115 other countries, had their lives suddenly and violently taken from them.", "zh": "只不过几个小时，3000多无辜平民被突如其来的暴行夺去了生命，其中大多是美国人，但也有来自其他115个国家的人。" }

{ "en": "September 11, 2001, was a terrible tragedy by any measure, but it was not a historical turning point.", "zh": "2001年9月11日，以任何标准看都是一个可怕的惨剧，但它并非一个历史转折点。" }

{ "en": "It did not herald a new era of international relations in which terrorists with a global agenda prevailed, or in which such spectacular terrorist attacks became commonplace. On the contrary, 9/11 has not been replicated.", "zh": "它并未开启一个由全球恐怖主义主导国际关系的新时代，类似的大规模恐怖袭击也没有变成家常便饭。" }

{ "en": "Despite the attention devoted to the “Global War on Terrorism,” the most important developments of the last ten years have been the introduction and spread of innovative information technologies, globalization, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the political upheavals in the Middle East.", "zh": "虽然人们在“全球反恐战争”上投注了大量精力，但是过去10年最重要的进展是信息技术的创新与传播、全球化、伊拉克与阿富汗战争以及中东的政治动荡。" }

{ "en": "As for the future, it is much more likely to be defined by the United States’ need to put its economic house in order; China’s trajectory within and beyond its borders; and the ability of the world’s governments to cooperate on restoring economic growth, stemming the spread of nuclear weapons, and meeting energy and environmental challenges.", "zh": "未来一个阶段的关键，则是美国整修其经济大厦的努力，中国在国内国际事务中的走向，各国政府在重振经济增长、控制核扩散以及应对能源与环境挑战方面的合作能力。" }

{ "en": "It is and would be wrong to make opposition to terrorism the centerpiece of what responsible governments do in the world.", "zh": "如果把反对恐怖主义当成负责任的政府在世界上的核心要务，这是错误的。" }

{ "en": "Terrorists continue to be outliers with limited appeal at best.", "zh": "恐怖主义仍是边缘角色，它们的吸引力终归是有限的。" }