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Now he’s alerted me to a new study and related lecture on what he and his co-authors are calling “peak farmland” — an impending stabilization of the amount of land required for food as humanity’s growth spurt plays out. While laying out several important wild cards (expanded farming of biofuels among them), Ausubel and his co-authors see a reasonable prospect
for conserving, and restoring, forests and other stressed terrestrial ecosystems even as humanity exerts an ever greater influence on the planet. The study, “Peak Farmland and the Prospects for Sparing Nature,” is by Ausubel, Iddo K. Wernick and Paul E. Waggoner and will be published next year as part of a special supplement to the journal Population and Development Review,
published by the Population Council. Drawing on a host of data sets, the authors conclude that a combination of slowing population growth, moderated demand for land-intensive food (meat, for instance) and more efficient farming methods have resulted in a substantial “decoupling” of acreage and human appetites. Here’s the optimistic opener: Expecting that more and richer people will demand more from
the land, cultivating wider fields, logging more forests, and pressing nature, comes naturally. The past half-century of disciplined and dematerializing demand and more intense and efficient land use encourage a rational hope that humanity’s pressure will not overwhelm nature. Ausubel will describe the findings in a talk during a daylong symposium at his university on Tuesday honoring Paul Demeny, who
at age 80 is stepping down as editor of the journal. Ausubel’s prepared remarks are online. In his talk, he explains that while the common perception is that meeting humanity’s food needs is the task of farmers, there are many other players, including those of us who can choose what to eat and how many children to have: [T]he main
actors are parents changing population, workers changing affluence, consumers changing the diet (more or less calories, more or less meat) and also the portion of crops entering the food supply (corn can fuel people or cars), and farmers changing the crop production per hectare of cropland (yield). The new paper builds on a long string of studies by Ausubel and
the others, including the 2001 paper “How Much Will Feeding More and Wealthier People Encroach on Forests?.” Also relevant is “Restoring the Forests,” a 2000 article in Foreign Affairs co-written by Ausubel and David G. Victor (now at the University of California, San Diego) This body of analysis is closely related to the core focus of this blog: finding ways
to fit infinite human aspirations (and appetites) on a finite planet. The work presents a compelling case for concentrating agriculture through whatever hybrid mix of means — technological or traditional — that best fits particular situations, but also fostering moderation in consumption. Here’s an excerpt from the paper’s conclusion, which notes the many wild cards that make the peak farmland
scenario still only a plausible, and hardly inevitable, future: [W]ild cards remain part of the game, both for and against land sparing. As discussed, the wild card of biofuels confounded expectations for the past 15 years. Most wild cards probably will continue to come from consumers. Will people choose to eat much more meat? If so, will it be beef,
which requires more land than poultry and fish, which require less? Will people become vegetarian or even vegan? But if they become vegan, will they also choose clothing made from linen, hemp, and cotton, which require hectares? Will the average human continue to grow taller and thus require more calories? Will norms of beauty accept obesity and thus high average
calories per capita? Will a global population with a median age of 40 eat less than one with a median age of 28? Will radical innovations in food production move humanity closer to landless agriculture (Ausubel 2010)? Will hunger or international investment encourage cropland expansion in Africa and South America? (Cropland may, of course, shrink in some countries while expanding
in others as the global sum declines.) And will time moderate the disparities cloaked within global averages, in particular disparities of hunger and excess among regions and individuals? Allowing for wild cards, we believe that projecting conservative values for population, affluence, consumers, and technology shows humanity peaking in the use of farmland. Over the next 50 years, the prospect is
that humanity is likely to release at least 146 mHa [146 million hectares, or 563,710 square miles], one and a half times the size of Egypt, two and a half times that of France, or ten Iowas, and possibly multiples of this amount. Notwithstanding the biofuels case, the trends of the past 15 years largely resemble those for the past
50 and 150. We see no evidence of exhaustion of the factors that allow the peaking of cropland and the subsequent restoration of nature. In an e-mail exchange today, I asked Ausubel about another issue touched on in the paper: Looking around the planet, it’s clear from a biodiversity standpoint that all forests — or farming pressures — are not
equal. For instance, in Southeast Asia, palm oil and orangutans are having a particularly hard time co-existing. So while the overall trend is great, do you see the need for maintaining a focus on particular “hot spots,” to use a term familiar in environmental circles? So far, I don’t see lots of evidence that conservation campaigners (you are one on
ocean resources) have found a way to accept this kind of good news and/or incorporate it in their prescriptions for sustaining a rich and variegated biological sheath on Earth. If you agree, any idea why? Indonesia is the number one place where letting the underlying trend work will not work fast enough. The list of threatened regions is quite well
identified: parts of the central African forest, parts of the Amazon. Some conservation groups have realized that the slow growth in demand for calories as well as pulp and paper are creating big chances to reserve or protect more land. In the right places, where crops are no longer profitable, some amounts of money can acquire large amounts of land
for nature. Conservation groups also ought to attend more to the ecological disaster called biofuels. I encourage you to dig in on this paper and related work, which provides a useful guide for softening the human impact on a crowding planet. There’ll be plenty of losses, and surprises, but there are real prospects for sustaining a thriving, and peopled, orb.
6:57 p.m. \| Addendum \| For relevant work with somewhat different conclusions review the presentations from “Intensifying agriculture within planetary boundaries,” a session at the Planet Under Pressure conference in London last March. I’ll be adding links to other relevant analysis here.
Although uncommon, an entirely different group of factors plays a role when an athlete suffers a stroke. Head and neck trauma are often factors in stroke during athletic competitions. Direct head trauma can result in leakage from blood vessels, depriving large regions of the brain of necessary nutrients. Violent forward and backward movement of the head can result in tearing
the inner lining of vital arteries responsible for directing blood to the brain. This condition, known as arterial dissection, can form a clot within the affected blood vessel or become a source of small clots. These smaller clots often move toward the brain as emboli and block other arteries. Treatment for arterial dissection involves the use of blood thinning medications
and avoiding violent collision sports. Another common risk factor for stroke in athletes is the existence of a patent foramen ovale (PFO). A PFO is a hole between the upper chambers of the heart, the right and left atria. The foramen ovale forms in the fourth week of embryonic development and should close in the first three months after birth.
When it does not close, it is considered patent or open. This abnormal channel allows direct passage of blood clots to the brain. These clots often originate in the legs and may result from immobilized lower extremities. PFOs can be treated with equal success by surgical closure or blood thinning medications. Athletes appear to do better with surgical closure and
There are many ways to effectively teach a dog. Not so long ago, most of the accepted methods for training were forceful or aversive. Unfortunately, some of these methods still are in use among the abusive and uneducated. One of the pioneers of gentle training techniques was Barbara Woodhouse. This English dog trainer was instrumental in paving the way for
today’s nonaversive and positive methods of training. She was a genius at molding behaviors with lures and gently “modeling” a dog into positions without force. But even Woodhouse used some techniques that can be considered rough by today’s standards. If you have researched dog-training methodologies at all, you probably have noticed that a percentage of the available training books advocate
the use of a “choke chain” (otherwise called the training collar). When used properly, this training device relies on aversion to get the dog’s attention or to make a correction when your dog doesn’t respond to a command correctly. A sharp snap of the leash tightens the collar around the dog’s neck, startling the dog with a momentary, low-level pain.
The choke chain is not a training device for leash pullers, as is commonly thought, and when used incorrectly can, at the least, cause misalignment of the spine and trachea damage. At worst, it can cause brain damage and even death. Because there is such a high risk for misuse of this device (you may not realize that the choke
chain should be worn with the free ring up, for instance), the training world probably would be much better off without it. Your efforts to train your dog should focus on building a bond and nurturing trust. This bond becomes the motivator that drives your dog to learn, focus and respond. Why would anyone want to use force or violence
when positive reinforcement works so well? Why should your dog trust you if he knows that you are likely to hit him when he is unfocused or confused? That’s like your supervisor yelling at you when you have problems with a difficult task. Stress won’t help you concentrate or focus better. Abusive treatment of dogs in the name of training,
just as abusive handling of employees in the name of supervision, doesn’t work. It does, however, tell us a lot about the trainer. For any method of dog training to be successful, it must be: Effective – If it’s not effective, what’s the point? Efficient – Both you and your dog will become frustrated if training takes too long. Enjoyable
– Fun is an important ingredient in motivating both you and your dog. The proper execution of any training program is dependent on these three ingredients. But, ultimately, the most important ingredient in your training program is you, the owner. The trust you nurture in your dog will be evident in his willingness to look to you for leadership and
his motivation to work with you in any and all situations. Those qualities are in your dog right now but cannot be developed through the use of harsh training methods. Dog training can be whatever you want it to be. If you rely on anger and force, the relationship and trust will suffer. If you rely on motivation and reward,
A 2012 survey conducted by the Association for Pet Obesity Prevention found 52.5 percent of dogs and 58.3 percent of cats to be overweight or obese by their veterinarian. This translates to nearly 80 million dogs and cats in America with a weight problem. Dr. George Banta, chair of the Veterinary Technology department at Brown Mackie College - Akron and
to assess the condition of an animal, usually on a scale from one to five, taking into account height, weight, and relative proportions of muscle and fat. With a little knowledge, you can use sight and touch to figure your pet’s general condition. “When looking down on a dog or cat from above,” says Banta, “the body should slim to
a discernable waist. An animal is too thin if you can see the spine or ribs; however, you should be able to feel them beneath the fur.” An animal of ideal weight will also display a pelvic tuck when viewed from the side. “Just like humans, when animals overeat, they face increased risk for health problems like diabetes, heart disease,
gastrointestinal problems and cancer,” continues Banta. In fact, these risks also include a shortened life expectancy. Many owners feed pets according to the manufacturer’s suggested amounts; however, this instruction may not be right for your pet. “These guidelines are meant to cover all animals of a certain weight range,” says Wagner. “An owner must consider the age and activity level
of each pet. The more active they are, the more calories they will burn in a day.” Metabolism rates vary in animals the same way they do in people. Metabolism is the body process in which food is broken down for energy; another factor that affects the amount of food a pet needs. Wagner advises owners to keep an eye
on body condition to judge whether a pet is eating properly. “If your pet shows signs of being overweight, simply cut back the amount of food given at each meal. Then weigh the pet in two or three weeks to see if it has made a difference,” she says. Choosing the right food for your pet is important as well.
Different brands of pet food contain varying amounts of protein, fat, carbohydrates and calories. “As a general rule, young, active dogs need high protein food,” says Wagner. “Older dogs need higher fiber to keep the gastrointestinal (GI) tract moving.” Ingredients listed on the package appear in descending order of volume; the first item on the list is most abundant in
nada,” says Banta. “They are not good for two reasons. First, foods like chocolate, caffeine, grapes and raisins can be toxic to dogs. Second, the high fat content associated with table scraps, especially holiday trimmings, can lead to the onset of acute pancreatitis, which can be fatal.” He recommends offering a kibble of food or a carrot instead of a
cookie. If you must give cookies, try breaking them in half. “Pets do enjoy treats as a reward; however, attention from you is also a reward. It’s important to praise animals. In some ways, spending time with them is better than a treat,” Wagner says.
On this day in 1951, more than six years after the end of World War II in Europe, President Harry S. Truman signed a proclamation officially ending U.S. hostilities with Germany. The official end to the war came nine years, 10 months and 13 days after Congress had declared war on Nazi Germany. The lawmakers had responded to a declaration of war issued by
the Third Reich in the aftermath of the Dec. 7, 1941, Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor and other U.S. bases in the Pacific. The president explained why he had waited so long after the fighting had ended to act: It had always been America’s hope, Truman wrote, to create a treaty of peace with the government of a united and free Germany, but the
postwar policies pursued by the Soviet Union “made it impossible.” After the war, the United States, Britain, France and the Soviet Union divided Germany into four zones of occupation. Berlin, while located wholly within the Soviet zone, was jointly occupied by the wartime allies and also subdivided into four sectors because of its symbolic importance as the nation’s historic capital and seat of the
former Nazi government. The three western zones were merged to form the Federal Republic of Germany in May 1949, and the Soviets followed suit in October 1949 with the establishment of the German Democratic Republic. The East German regime began to falter in May 1989, when the removal of Hungary’s border fences punched a hole in the Iron Curtain, allowing tens of thousands of
East Germans to flee to the West. Despite the grants of general sovereignty to both German states in 1955, neither of the two German governments held unrestricted sovereignty under international law until after they were reunified in October 1990.
Survey data is a snapshot of a population, a moment captured in numbers, like vital signs: height, weight, temperature, blood pressure, etc. People build trend lines and watch for changes,
shifting strategies as they make educated guesses about what’s going on. What’s holding steady? What’s spiking? What’s on the decline? Just as a thermometer makes no judgment, the Pew Research
Center provides data about the changing world around us. We don’t advocate for outcomes or recommend policies. Rather, we provide an updated record so that others can make those pronouncements
and recommendations based on facts. The latest in our health research series is being released today. Health Online 2013 finds that internet access and interest in online health resources are
holding steady in the U.S. For a quick overview, read on… What is new? 1 in 3 U.S. adults use the internet to diagnose themselves or someone else – and
a clinician is more likely than not to confirm their suspicions. This is the first time we – or anyone else – has measured this in a straightforward, national survey
question. 1 in 4 people looking online for health info have hit a pay wall. This is the first data I know of that begins to answer the important question:
what is the public impact of closed-access journals? We added three new health topics: - 11% of internet users have looked online for information about how to control their health
care costs. - 14% of internet users have looked online for information about caring for an aging relative or friend. - 16% of internet users have looked online for information
about a drug they saw advertised. (A full list of all the health topics we’ve included, 2002-10, is available here.) What has changed? The percentage of people who have consulted
online reviews of drugs and medical treatments dropped (and I don’t know why — do you have a theory? Please post a comment.) Related: why aren’t health care review sites
catching on? Pew Internet has tracked a boom in consumer reviews of other services and products — why not health care? What to keep an eye on? One of my
favorite survey questions is asked of all adults and attempts to capture a broad portrait of health care resources that someone might tap into when they’re sick. It’s a useful
question for keeping online resources in perspective. I think it’s also going to prove useful in the coming years as the landscape shifts and people have more opportunities to connect
with clinicians online. How fast will that ”Yes, online” group grow? Or will care always be hands-on at its core — and therefore we should see growth in the “Yes,
both” category? Speaking of keeping things in perspective, I think it’s important to remind ourselves that there are pockets of people who remain offline. Internet access drives information access. Here’s
a table from the Appendix that digs even deeper: In other words, 64% of college educated adults in the U.S. have researched a specific disease online, compared with just 16%
of U.S. adults who have not completed high school. These are just a few highlights — please read the report, ask questions, and tell us what you think: How’s the
Fewer rare sea turtles will die on the swordfish industry's longlines in Hawaii under an agreement between environmental groups and the government. The agreement settles a lawsuit challenging the federal government's plans that would have dramatically increase the number of turtles that could be killed. The Turtle Island Restoration Network,
Center for Biological Diversity and KAHEA sued the National Marine Fisheries Service for allowing 46 imperiled Pacific loggerhead turtles to be hooked last year. The new court-ordered settlement caps the number at 17 per year. Meanwhile the National Marine Fisheries Service is weighing whether loggerheads need more protection under the
Endangered Species Act. "It made absolutely no sense to have one arm of the National Marine Fisheries Service increasing the lethal capture of loggerheads, while the other arm is in the process of determining whether loggerheads should be uplisted from threatened to endangered," said Todd Steiner, biologist and executive director
of Turtle Island Restoration Network. "With extinction looming, these animals need more protection, not less." "With this decision, Hawaii's public-trust ocean resources can be better managed for our collective best interest, and not just the interests of this commercial fishery," said KAHEA program director Marti Townsend. "This is a victory
not just for the turtles, but for Hawaii's people who rely on a healthy, functioning ocean ecosystem." Conservation groups represented by Earthjustice filed a federal lawsuit challenging a 2009 rule allowing the swordfish fleet to catch nearly three times as many loggerhead sea turtles as previously permitted. This settlement freezes
the number at the previous cap of 17 while the government conducts additional environmental studies and decides whether or not to classify the loggerhead as endangered, rather than its current, less-protective status of threatened. For leatherback turtles, the bycatch limit remains at 16 per year. In 2010, eight Pacific leatherbacks
and seven loggerheads were caught in the longline fishery, according to the National Marine Fisheries Service. There have already been 4 loggerheads captured in 2011, which has sea turtle conservationists concerned. "Sea turtles have been swimming the oceans since the time of dinosaurs. But without a change in management, they
won't survive our voracious quest for swordfish and tuna," said Miyoko Sakashita, oceans director at the Center for Biological Diversity. "If loggerheads are going to survive in the North Pacific, we need to stop killing them in our fisheries." "Pacific loggerhead sea turtles are nearly extinct, so this bycatch rollback
helps right a serious wrong," said Teri Shore, program director at Turtle Island Restoration Network. "We can't allow these rare sea turtles to disappear for a plate of swordfish. It's tragic that it took a lawsuit to correct this fishery problem." Swordfish longline vessels trail up to 60 miles of
fishing line suspended in the water with floats, with as many as 1,000 baited hooks deployed at regular intervals. Sea turtles become hooked while trying to take bait or become entangled while swimming through the nearly invisible lines. These encounters can drown the turtles or leave them with serious injuries.
Sea birds such as albatross dive for the bait and become hooked; marine mammals, including endangered humpback whales and false killer whales, also sometimes become hooked when they swim through the floating lines.
Volume 4 Number 2 ©The Author(s) 2002 The Continuity Framework: A Tool for Building Home, School, and Community Partnerships AbstractWe will need to become savvy about how to build relationships,
how to nurture growing, evolving things. All of us will need better skills in listening, communicating, and facilitating groups, because these are the talents that build strong relationships. (Wheatley, 1992,
p. 38) In the face of today's challenging social and family issues, many new efforts are underway to help children and families. One solution that many communities have adopted is
the establishment of a collaborative partnership that involves all the relevant partners—home, school, and community—in the planning and monitoring of services for children. Unfortunately, achieving a strong partnership with meaningful
participation can often be difficult and time-consuming. This article focuses on a set of training materials that has been developed to assist community partnerships in their efforts. These materials highlight
eight elements of continuity and successful partnerships: (1) families as partners, (2) shared leadership, (3) comprehensive/responsive services, (4) culture and home language, (5) communication, (6) knowledge and skill development, (7)
appropriate care and education, and (8) evaluation of partnership success. Results from a field study that included more than 200 reviewers and 8 pilot sites are summarized. Results indicate that
a majority of reviewers found the training materials easy to understand, relevant to their work, and up-to-date. In addition, data gathered from the pilot sites indicate that the partnerships found
the materials practical and useful for addressing a variety of issues, including time constraints, communication gaps, differences in professional training, and funding limitations. Communities face a host of problems that
threaten the health and well-being of their children and families. Poverty, unemployment, inadequate care/education, and poor health care are just a few of the difficult issues that communities must confront.
What makes these issues particularly challenging is that children and families who experience one problem are often likely to experience other problems as well. Compounding the problem is that delivery
of services to help children and families is typically fragmented and scattered. Even efforts designed to increase the quality and supply of services to children and families have, at times,
created greater fragmentation and discontinuity. In previous years, those who sought to improve outcomes for children concentrated only on the child. Today, however, many service providers have come to understand
that the best way to serve and preserve children is to serve and preserve the supportive networks that benefit children (Family Support America, 1996). An extensive body of research identifies
the elements that contribute to children's well-being, beginning with those closest to the child and moving outward to encompass the family, early care/education, the neighborhood, the community, and beyond. This
ecological perspective (Bronfenbrenner, 1979) has motivated a growing number of communities to focus more closely on the need for collaboration--engaging in a process that allows the community to address many
problems at once rather than one at a time. One solution that many communities have adopted is the establishment of a collaborative partnership involving all the relevant partners--home, school, and
service providers--in the planning and monitoring of services for children (Kagan, 1992; Hoffman, 1991). The goal of most of these collaboration initiatives is to improve child outcomes, recognizing that many
of the child's needs are closely linked to needs of the family and the community. Challenges to Collaboration Community collaboratives/partnerships represent one of the most challenging--yet one of the most
effective--efforts for creating a flexible, comprehensive system that meets the needs of children and families. They involve new relationships among service providers and the children and families they serve. They
require time, resources, and the willingness of collaborating agencies to learn about and establish trust with each other. In short, they require change (Bruner, Kunesh, & Knuth, 1992). As a
result of the new roles and responsibilities that service providers must assume, collaboratives/partnerships encounter many common difficulties, including (Melaville, Blank, & Asayesh, 1996): - staff or agency representatives who are
resistant to relinquishing power; - policies and regulations within individual agencies that make it difficult to coordinate services, information, and resources; - differences in prior knowledge, training, or experience that
make it difficult for members to communicate and work together; and - lack of time to meet and plan together. Many factors contribute to the success or failure of a
community collaborative, and no two collaboratives operate in exactly the same way. However, certain guidelines seem to help smooth the way for a more successful partnership, including (North Central Regional

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