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In both countries, families of Arab descent are particularly heavily invested in the maquiladora industry, which has benefited more from IMF and World Bank liberalization policies tied to debt relief than any other industry. Free Trade Zones set up with the aim of attracting foreign investment capital to exploit the countries’ cheap labor without paying taxes also attracted these local elites (adding to a sense among locals of non-Arab descent that the oligarchy is a foreign enemy among them). If these industries were taxed even minimally, that income could have been used to strengthen infrastructure and thus provide equitable access to resources, and popular access to allegedly democratic governments. Such access could have resulted in death tolls from both Hurricane Mitch and Haiti’s earthquake closer to those from events of similar magnitude in countries with an infrastructure equipped to deal with them, just as the deaths of thousands of people during Hurricane Katrina can be blamed on poor infrastructure and lack of democratic process in the implementation of policies benefiting powerful business interests. But instead of holding maquiladoras democratically accountable, regressive taxation policies imposed from the outside in combination with other neoliberal policies mandated as a condition of debt relief, have resulted in an increased concentration of wealth, the privatization of public infrastructure, and the impoverishment and disenfranchisement of ever larger numbers of citizens in Honduras and Haiti.

Pine 2k10 [Adrienne, Professor of Anthropology at American University and a Senior Research Associate at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs-Summer 2k10]

families of Arab descent are particularly heavily invested in the maquiladora industry, which has benefited more from IMF and World Bank liberalization policies tied to debt relief than any other industry Free Trade Zones set up with the aim of attracting foreign investment capital to exploit the countries’ cheap labor without paying taxes also attracted these local elites regressive taxation policies imposed from the outside in combination with other neoliberal policies mandated as a condition of debt relief, have resulted in an increased concentration of wealth, the privatization of public infrastructure, and the impoverishment and disenfranchisement of ever larger numbers of citizens

Perm do both-shields the net benefit

Venezuela Debt Relief Affirmative - DDI 2013 SS.html5

Dartmouth DDI

Affirmatives

2013

Members of Congress are similarly unlikely to give the IMF ¶ top priority on their legislative agenda. Unlike domestic financial institutions, the IMF cannot lend to or manage the assets ¶ 19. As conceptualized by the institutionalist approach to international relations. See, for example, Keohane (1984).¶ A s the largest contributor to the IMF, ¶ the United S tates wields more votes ¶ than any other single member.N u m b e r P b 0 9 - 1 2 J u N e 2 0 0 9¶ ¶ of their constituents. Unlike federal agencies, the IMF does not ¶ serve the constituents in their states or districts directly. Within ¶ Congress, moreover, responsibility for legislation and oversight ¶ is fragmented, with the banking, international relations, and ¶ appropriations committees of both houses involved. So, as in ¶ the case of other international institutions, few members of ¶ Congress are willing to champion the IMF; it is “orphaned.” ¶ Finally, Congress is wary of letting the authority that it jealously ¶ guards in disputes with the executive branch over domestic ¶ matters slip away under the guise of international cooperation.20¶ Outright opposition to the IMF in Congress tends not to be ¶ broad and intense, but neither is support a high priority for ¶ most members.

Henning 9 (C Randall Henning, Peterson Institute for International Economics, “US Interests and the International Monetary Fund, June 2009, http://www.iie.com/publications/pb/pb09-12.pdf TSD)

Members of Congress are similarly unlikely to give the IMF top priority on their legislative agenda Unlike federal agencies, the IMF does not serve the constituents in their states or districts directly. So, as in the case of other international institutions, few members of Congress are willing to champion the IMF; it is “orphaned.” Finally, Congress is wary of letting the authority that it jealously guards in disputes with the executive branch over domestic matters slip away under the guise of international cooperation neither is support a high priority for most members.

Cooperation Adv is a DA to the counterplan—only direct engagement sends the proper signal

Venezuela Debt Relief Affirmative - DDI 2013 SS.html5

Dartmouth DDI

Affirmatives

2013

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -- The U.S. Congress on Wednesday approved a foreign aid bill that includes the full $435 million pledged by President Clinton (news - web sites) to forgive or alleviate the crippling debt burdens of some of the world`s poorest nations.¶ The Senate gave final approval to the $14.9 billion foreign assistance bill in a comfortable bipartisan vote of 65 to 27 after it easily passed in the House of Representatives by a 307-101 vote.¶ The debt-relief measure, championed by the White House, charity groups and religious and cultural figures from Pope John Paul (news - web sites) II to singer Bono of the rock band U2, allows the United States to pay its share under the global Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative to forgive the debts of some 30 Third World countries. ¶ ``This enables America to do something that is good and just and manifestly in our interests,`` Clinton said of a debt pact struck by Congressional negotiators before the votes.

Reuters 2k12 [“Congress approves 3rd world debt relief”-October 26]

Congress approved a foreign aid bill to forgive or alleviate the crippling debt burdens of some of the world`s poorest nations The Senate gave final approval in a comfortable bipartisan vote This enables America to do something that is good and just and manifestly in our interests

Bureaucracy DA—IMF policies must go through an approval of several different agencies/countries—which means there is a t/f differential

Venezuela Debt Relief Affirmative - DDI 2013 SS.html5

Dartmouth DDI

Affirmatives

2013

"My hope would be is that we would go to the Congress very shortly with a framework of how we recommend that this money be allocated," U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Thomas Nides told reporters during a conference call to discuss goals for a U.S. business delegation headed to Egypt this weekend.¶ President Barack Obama promised in May 2011 to relieve Egypt of up to $1 billion of the $3.2 billion debt it owes the United States, and to guarantee another $1 billion in loans for infrastructure and job creation programs.¶ Following Egypt's first free elections, which brought Islamist president Mohamed Mursi to power in June, the United States has started detailed discussions with Egyptian officials on how the money would be used.¶ "We're still in those discussions. I think we're getting close to finalizing it. Obviously the Congress has to approve what we're doing and we're consulting with both Republicans and Democrats and there's really, quite frankly, bipartisan support for this," Nides said.

Palmer 2k12 [Doug, senior reporter for Reuters-- http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/07/us-usa-egypt-debt-idUSBRE8860T220120907 - September 7]

we would go to the Congress very shortly with a framework of how we recommend that this money be allocated," Obama promised in May 2011 to relieve Egypt of up to $1 billion of the $3.2 billion debt it owes the United States Congress has to approve what we're doing and we're consulting with both Republicans and Democrats and there's really bipartisan support for this

Past policies prove debt relief is popular

Venezuela Debt Relief Affirmative - DDI 2013 SS.html5

Dartmouth DDI

Affirmatives

2013

When the Chamber of big-government commerce is not pimping the massive federal highway bill, they are lobbying the State Department to forgive Egypt’s $2 billion debt to the U.S.¶ This, from CQ:¶ The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is launching an effort to revive negotiations on debt relief for Egypt, a high priority for Cairo, but the request could hardly have come at a tougher time.¶ The six-week standoff over Egypt’s raids on more than a dozen Western democracy-promotion organizations — including several American groups — has profoundly soured relations, and lawmakers are in no mood to help Cairo’s new leaders at the moment.¶ But Chamber officials insist that the United States needs to look at the country’s long-term prospects, and consider the risks that an economic collapse in Egypt would create for both the region and the international community. And the business group is pointing to a new study it commissioned from the Peter G. Peterson Institute, released Friday, that demonstrates how multilateral debt relief efforts could help put Cairo on firmer economic ground.

Horwitz 2k12 [Daniel, senior reporter for Madison Project- http://madisonproject.com/2012/02/chamber-of-commerce-lobbies-for-egypt-debt-forgiveness/ -February 10, 2012]

the Chamber of big-government commerce is not pimping the massive federal highway bill, they are lobbying the State Department to forgive debt The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is launching an effort to revive negotiations on debt relief Chamber officials insist that the United States needs to look at the country’s long-term prospects, and consider the risks that an economic collapse

The Chamber of Commerce likes the plan

Venezuela Debt Relief Affirmative - DDI 2013 SS.html5

Dartmouth DDI

Affirmatives

2013

AMERICA’S first chamber of commerce was founded in Charleston in 1773, but it was not until April 22nd 1912 that business found a national voice. At the urging of President William Howard Taft, the Chamber of Commerce of the USA was established by a gathering of 700 delegates from 44 states, representing 324 voluntary organizations, in a Washington hotel. Taft turned the meeting over to his commerce secretary, Charles Nagel, suggesting he keep it brief "in order that the inventive genius and the power of original thought in this representative body… may not be restricted." For much of the Chamber’s first 85 years it sought to settle disputes by consensus, much like its small-town namesakes.That began to change in 1997 when the wiry Thomas Donohue (pictured) was appointed chief executive after a stint reinvigorating America’s trucking association. The organization he inherited was cash-strapped and lacked punch. His goal, he wrote at the time, "is simple--to build the biggest gorilla in this town--the most aggressive and vigorous business advocate our nation has ever seen." He has succeeded on many measures. Today the Chamber is by far the most muscular business lobby group in Washington. From its historic headquarters opposite the White House it wields huge political influence, spending heavily to sway congressional contests. In doing so it has become more controversial and, say critics, more pro-Republican. This has done its coffers no harm: in 2010 it took in $189m in contributions and grants, roughly five times its pre-Donohue inflows. Today’s Chamber is not shy about staking out strong (some would say extreme) positions on hot-button issues: it has led the running on supporting tort and entitlement reform and greater domestic energy production, and in opposing "excessive" regulation, government-run health care and cap-and-trade schemes. Its leaders seem to love locking horns with the left, not least the Labour unions that spend hundreds of millions promoting their views in each election cycle. "Our adversaries will never leave the field, so neither can we," says Bruce Josten, the Chamber’s chief lobbyist. Labour groups have been so spooked by its surging testosterone that they have set up US Chamber Watch, an outfit dedicated to undermining it. The Chamber’s spending on lobbying has jumped under Mr Donohue (see chart 1), though it fell sharply last year as an unprecedented lobbying blitz on health and financial reform subsided. It is expected to rebound after November’s elections. The Chamber uses both its team of in-house lobbyists and outsiders. Last year it paid a team led by Michael Mukasey, a former United States attorney-general, $180,000 to call for amendments to declaw the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. Its electioneering activities are equally impressive. Its political spending exceeded that of all other groups bar the two parties in the 2010 mid-terms, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, a campaign-finance watchdog. Much of the money goes on "issue advocacy" ads, which do not explicitly back or attack candidates but discuss their stance on business issues. Business associations naturally lean right. But critics say the Chamber has become more brazenly pro-Republican under Mr Donohue.. Its ranks of lobbyists, strategists and flacks bristle with former Republican congressional attack dogs Its people are said to meet periodically with Republican-supporting groups to share intelligence, such as polling data, and to co-ordinate ad spending. It has ties to Karl Rove’s American Crossroads political action committee, whose president is the Chamber’s former chief lawyer.

The Economist ’12 Independent Economic Think Tank, “The Chamber Of Commerce Has Been Transformed Into One Of The Most Powerful Political Forces In Washington” April 23, 2012 (http://articles.businessinsider.com/2012-04-23/politics/31385442_1_political-spending-chamber-labour)

the Chamber of Commerce Chamber is by far the most muscular business lobby group in Washington it wields huge political influence, spending heavily to sway congressional contests. In doing so it has become pro-Republican . Today’s Chamber is not shy about staking out strong positions on hot-button issues Its political spending exceeded that of all other groups in the 2010 mid-terms, the Chamber has become more brazenly pro-Republican Its ranks of lobbyists, strategists and flacks bristle with former Republican congressional attack dogs Its people are said to meet periodically with Republican-supporting groups to share intelligence

The Chamber of Commerce is the biggest and most powerful lobbying group in the nation, especially in regards to Republicans

Venezuela Debt Relief Affirmative - DDI 2013 SS.html5

Dartmouth DDI

Affirmatives

2013

Over the last seven years, we have worked steadily to implement this vision using a variety of tools. We refer to this as our Total Economic Engagement, or TEE strategy, using in a coordinated manner all elements of our economic policy and development tools to foster economic growth with key countries and regions of the world. This strategy has had a positive impact in many areas of the world. I want to highlight three broad initiatives of our TEE strategy that have had a positive impact in our Hemisphere.¶ First, we have revolutionized our approach to development assistance. In 2002 world leaders gathered at Monterrey, Mexico and agreed to significantly increase development assistance, while developing countries would focus on implementing more responsible economic policies.¶ To implement this “new compact” for development, the Bush Administration–with bipartisan support in Congress–has dramatically increased U.S. official development assistance (ODA). In fact, the Bush Administration has launched the largest ODA increase since the Marshall Plan, and we met our Monterrey Commitment to increase ODA by 50% three years early.¶ The numbers speak for themselves. In the last year of the Clinton Administration, U.S. ODA averaged about $10 billion. Between 2001 and 2006, it has averaged about $22 billion. This historic increase has manifested itself in different ways. For example, the Bush Administration has quadrupled our development assistance to sub-Saharan Africa.¶ U.S. funding to combat HIV/AIDS under the President’s PEPFAR initiative will exceed $18 billion over the initiative’s first five years. This amount is as much as the rest of the world’s governments combined. And for the next five years, the President has requested an additional $30 billion. Already, PEPFAR is saving lives and bringing hope to millions afflicted with HIV/AIDS.¶ We also have launched a five-year, $1.2 billion program to combat malaria and we continue to provide more than half of all global food aid.¶ Under our Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) initiative, we have further implemented the Monterrey Consensus by working in partnership with recipient governments to establish assistance compacts that focus on their key priorities. At the same time, the MCC supports only governments that rule justly, invest in people, and promote economic freedom. In this way, we have generated an “MCC effect” that spurs MCC and even non-MCC recipients to undertake responsible and effective economic policies.¶ This record of revolutionizing development assistance has been a key part of our engagement with Latin America. For example, with strong bipartisan support, U.S. foreign assistance to the region has nearly doubled since the start of this Administration from $862 million in fiscal 2001 to over $1.5 billion in fiscal 2008.¶ The United States has committed nearly $1 billion in aid to El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Paraguay, Guyana and Peru’s MCC Compacts and threshold programs. This MCC engagement focuses on working with these countries to eliminate corruption, promote transparency, improve health care and education, and build infrastructure to connect people, businessmen and farmers to national and international markets.¶ A second element of this strategy that I would like to highlight is debt relief. The Bush Administration has provided strong global leadership on debt relief by supporting two major initiatives -- the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative and the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI)–that are expected to provide over $110 billion in debt relief over time to 33 heavily-indebted poor countries.¶ Latin America has been an important part of this debt relief strategy. Since the beginning of the Bush Administration, we have led efforts through international financial institutions to provide more than $17 billion in debt relief to the poorest countries in the region.¶ A third element of our TEE strategy that I would like to highlight has been to open markets–bilaterally, regionally and globally. The President’s intense focus on promoting open markets and free trade has taken many forms.¶ For example, in 2002, the Administration was able to secure Trade Promotion Authority that allows for Congress to consider trade legislation under streamlined procedures. We also played a leading role in launching the Doha Development Round in 2001, and remain committed from the President on down to an ambitious conclusion to the Doha Round by year’s end. In fact, just yesterday this was a significant topic of discussion at the U.S.-EU Summit.

Sullivan 2k8 [Daniel, Assistant Secretary for Economic, Energy and Business Affairs@ State Department-- http://2001-2009.state.gov/e/eeb/rls/rm/2008/106426.htm -6/11/2008-- SR]

Economic Engagement strategy using three broad initiatives First, development assistance Mexico and agreed to significantly increase development assistance, while developing countries would focus on implementing more responsible economic policies U.S. funding to combat HIV/AIDS second is debt relief. Latin America has been an important part of this debt relief strategy third has been to open markets–bilaterally, regionally and globally.

Economic engagement includes developmental assistance, debt relief, and opening markets—prefer our evidence-its from the state department and is in the context of Latin America

Venezuela Debt Relief Affirmative - DDI 2013 SS.html5

Dartmouth DDI

Affirmatives

2013

One industry flocking to Mexico for its lower cost structure and ample workforce is aerospace manufacturing. Between 2010 and 2011, total sales in Mexico's aerospace cluster increased by 25% to $4.5 billion, according to the Aerospace Industries Association, far outstripping the industry's overall annual growth rate of 15%, according to data from the World Bank. More than 250 aerospace companies and suppliers, including Aernnova, Bombardier, Cessna, Eurocopter, Hawker Beechcraft and Messier Dowty, now operate in Mexico and employ 29,000 people. As large OEMs set up shop, suppliers follow. Qubec-based Heroux-Devtek, a manufacturer of aerospace and industrial products, made the move after prompting from some of its biggest clients. "Customers such as Boeing were saying, 'If you want to be a key supplier, then you should consider Mexico'," says Michael Deshaies, general manager of the firm's Quertaro operations. Quertaro is one of the top states in Mexico for the industry along with Chihuahua and Sonora.

Selko 12 (Adrienne Selko and Tonya Vinas, industry week, 3/10/12, “Nearshoring Fuels Mexican Manufacturing Growth,” http://www.industryweek.com/global-economy/nearshoring-fuels-mexican-manufacturing-growth)

One industry flocking to Mexico for its lower cost structure and ample workforce is aerospace manufacturing. total sales in Mexico's aerospace cluster increased by 25% to $4.5 billion outstripping the industry's overall annual growth rate More than 250 aerospace companies and suppliers now operate in Mexico a manufacturer of aerospace and industrial products, made the move after prompting from some of its biggest clients. "Customers such as Boeing were saying, 'If you want to be a key supplier, then you should consider Mexico',

Mexican Manufacturing is key to US aerospace production – suppliers

Mexico Currency Affirmative Supplement - Northwestern 2013 6WeekSeniors.html5

Northwestern (NHSI)

Affirmatives

2013

The ruthless mercantilism practiced by the CCP is thus a form of economic warfare. China's rulers seek to move as much of the world's manufacturing base to their country as possible, thus increasing the PRC's ''comprehensive national strength'' at the same time that it undermines U.S. national security by hollowing out America's industrial base in general and key defense-related sectors of the economy in particular. China will not lightly abandon this policy, which strengthens China as it weakens the U.S., and is an integral part of China's drive for Hegemony. Many of China's military modernization efforts—supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles, stealthy submarines, theater based missiles with terminal guidance systems—are aimed specifically at U.S. forces and bases. By is acquiring weapons designed to exploit U.S. vulnerabilities, the PRC is clearly preparing for a contest with the United States. Beijing is interested in deterring, delaying, or complicating U.S. assistance to Taiwan in the event of an invasion, so as to force a quick capitulation by the democratically elected Taiwan government. But while the near-term focus is Taiwan, many of China's new lethal capabilities are applicable to a wide range of potential operations beyond the Taiwan Strait. As the 2005 Report to Congress of the USCC report notes, ''China is in the midst of an extensive force modernization program aimed at increasing its force projection capabilities and confronting U.S. and allied forces in the region.''(see footnote 20) The rapid growth in China's military power not only threatens Taiwan—and by implication the U.S.—but U.S. allies throughout the Asian Pacific region. China possesses regional, even global ambitions, and is building a first-rate military to realize those ambitions. It is naive to view the PRC's military build-up as ''merely'' part of the preparations for an invasion of Taiwan in which American military assets in the Asian-Pacific will have to be neutralized.

Mosher 6 (Stephen Mosher, President of the Population Research Institute, CQ Congressional Testimony, “Chinese Influence on U.S. Foreign Policy,” February 14, 2006, pg lexis)

ruthless mercantilism practiced by the CCP is a form of economic warfare. China's rulers seek to move as much of the world's manufacturing base to their country as possible increasing the PRC's strength'' it undermines U.S. national security by hollowing out America's industrial base which strengthens China as it weakens the U.S., and is an integral part of China's drive for Hegemony. Many of China's military modernization efforts are aimed specifically at U.S. forces the PRC is preparing for a contest The rapid growth in China's military power threatens Taiwan—and U.S. allies throughout the Asian Pacific China possesses regional, even global ambitions, and is building a first-rate military to realize those ambitions

Prevents China-Taiwan conflict and Chinese heg

Mexico Currency Affirmative Supplement - Northwestern 2013 6WeekSeniors.html5

Northwestern (NHSI)

Affirmatives

2013

Taiwan is the most likely potential crisis that could trigger a nuclear war between China and the US, a new academic report concludes.¶ “Taiwan remains the single most plausible and dangerous source of tension and conflict between the US and China,” says the 42-page report by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).¶ Prepared by the CSIS’ Project on Nuclear Issues and resulting from a year-long study, the report emphasizes that Beijing continues to be set on a policy to prevent Taiwan’s independence, while at the same time the US maintains the capability to come to Taiwan’s defense.¶ “Although tensions across the Taiwan Strait have subsided since both Taipei and Beijing embraced a policy of engagement in 2008, the situation remains combustible, complicated by rapidly diverging cross-strait military capabilities and persistent political disagreements,” the report says.¶ In a footnote, it quotes senior fellow at the US Council on Foreign Relations Richard Betts describing Taiwan as “the main potential flashpoint for the US in East Asia.”¶ The report also quotes Betts as saying that neither Beijing nor Washington can fully control developments that might ignite a Taiwan crisis.¶ “This is a classic recipe for surprise, miscalculation and uncontrolled escalation,” Betts wrote in a separate study of his own.¶ The CSIS study says: “For the foreseeable future Taiwan is the contingency in which nuclear weapons would most likely become a major factor, because the fate of the island is intertwined both with the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party and the reliability of US defense commitments in the Asia-Pacific region.”¶ Titled Nuclear Weapons and US-China Relations, the study says disputes in the East and South China seas appear unlikely to lead to major conflict between China and the US, but they do “provide kindling” for potential conflict between the two nations because the disputes implicate a number of important regional interests, including the interests of treaty allies of the US.¶ The danger posed by flashpoints such as Taiwan, the Korean Peninsula and maritime demarcation disputes is magnified by the potential for mistakes, the study says.¶ “Although Beijing and Washington have agreed to a range of crisis management mechanisms, such as the Military Maritime Consultative Agreement and the establishment of a direct hotline between the Pentagon and the Ministry of Defense, the bases for miscommunication and misunderstanding remain and draw on deep historical reservoirs of suspicion,” the report says.¶ For example, it says, it is unclear whether either side understands what kinds of actions would result in a military or even nuclear response by the other party.¶ To make things worse, “neither side seems to believe the other’s declared policies and intentions, suggesting that escalation management, already a very uncertain endeavor, could be especially difficult in any conflict,” it says.¶ Although conflict “mercifully” seems unlikely at this point, the report concludes that “it cannot be ruled out and may become increasingly likely if we are unwise or unlucky.”¶ The report says: “With both sides possessing and looking set to retain formidable nuclear weapons arsenals, such a conflict would be tremendously dangerous and quite possibly devastating.”

Lowther 3/16 William, Taipei Times, citing a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 3/16/13, “Taiwan could spark nuclear war: report,” http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2013/03/16/2003557211

Taiwan is the most likely potential crisis that could trigger a nuclear war between China and the US a year-long study emphasizes Beijing continues to be set on a policy to prevent Taiwan’s independence, while the US maintains the capability to come to Taiwan’s defense the situation remains combustible complicated by rapidly diverging cross-strait military capabilities and persistent political disagreements neither Beijing nor Washington can fully control developments that might ignite a Taiwan crisis This is a recipe for miscalculation and uncontrolled escalation Taiwan is the contingency in which nuclear weapons would most likely become a major factor because the island is intertwined with the legitimacy of the C C P and the reliability of US defense commitments Although Beijing and Washington have a range of crisis management mechanisms, the bases for miscommunication and misunderstanding remain and draw on deep historical reservoirs of suspicion it is unclear whether either side understands what kinds of actions would result in a military or nuclear response by the other neither side seems to believe the other’s declared policies and intentions suggesting escalation management could be especially difficult With both sides possessing formidable nuclear weapons arsenals such a conflict would be devastating

Taiwan escalates and goes nuclear---no defense

Mexico Currency Affirmative Supplement - Northwestern 2013 6WeekSeniors.html5

Northwestern (NHSI)

Affirmatives

2013

Responses to bioterrorism require rapid procurement and distribution of medical and pharmaceutical supplies, trained personnel, and information. Thus, they present significant logistical challenges. On the basis of a review of the manufacturing and service supply chain literature, the authors identified five supply chain strategies that can potentially increase the speed of response to a bioterrorism attack, reduce inventories, and save money: effective supply chain network design; effective inventory management; postponement of product customization and modularization of component parts; coordination of supply chain stakeholders and appropriate use of incentives; and effective information management. The authors describe how concepts learned from published evaluations of manufacturing and service supply chains, as well as lessons learned from responses to natural disasters, naturally occurring outbreaks, and the 2001 US anthrax attacks, can be applied to design, evaluate, and improve the bioterrorism response supply chain. Such lessons could also be applied to the response supply chains for disease outbreaks and natural and manmade disasters.

Brandeau 7 (Brandeau ML, Hutton DW, Owens DK, Bravata DM, Department of Management Science and Engineering @ Stanford University, “Planning the bioterrorism response supply chain: learn and live,” Am J Disaster Med. 2007 Sep-Oct;2(5):231-47, http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18491839)

Responses to bioterrorism require rapid procurement of medical and pharmaceutical supplies , they present significant logistical challenges. On the basis of a review of the manufacturing and service supply chain literature, the authors identified five supply chain strategies that can potentially increase the speed of response to a bioterrorism attack The authors describe how concepts learned from published evaluations of manufacturing can be applied to design, evaluate, and improve the bioterrorism response supply chain. lessons could also be applied to the response for disease and natural and manmade disasters

Manufacturing solves bioterror – supply chain speed

Mexico Currency Affirmative Supplement - Northwestern 2013 6WeekSeniors.html5

Northwestern (NHSI)

Affirmatives

2013

The risks from anthropogenic hazards appear at present larger than those from natural ones. Although great progress has been made in reducing the number of nuclear weapons in the world, humanity is still threatened by the possibility of a global thermonuclear war and a resulting nuclear winter. We may face even greater risks from emerging technologies. Advances in synthetic biology might make it possible to engineer pathogens capable of extinction-level pandemics. The knowledge, equipment, and materials needed to engineer pathogens are more accessible than those needed to build nuclear weapons. And unlike other weapons, pathogens are self-replicating, allowing a small arsenal to become exponentially destructive. Pathogens have been implicated in the extinctions of many wild species. Although most pandemics "fade out" by reducing the density of susceptible populations, pathogens with wide host ranges in multiple species can reach even isolated individuals. The intentional or unintentional release of engineered pathogens with high transmissibility, latency, and lethality might be capable of causing human extinction. While such an event seems unlikely today, the likelihood may increase as biotechnologies continue to improve at a rate rivaling Moore's Law.

Anders Sandberg 8, is a James Martin Research Fellow at the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford University; Jason G. Matheny, PhD candidate in Health Policy and Management at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and special consultant to the Center for Biosecurity at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center; Milan M. Ćirković, senior research associate at the Astronomical Observatory of Belgrade and assistant professor of physics at the University of Novi Sad in Serbia and Montenegro, 9/8/8, “How can we reduce the risk of human extinction?,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists,http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/features/how-can-we-reduce-the-risk-of-human-extinction

humanity is threatened by  global thermonuclear war We may face even greater risks from emerging technologies Advances in synthetic biology might make it possible to engineer pathogens capable of extinction-level pandemics unlike other weapons, pathogens are self-replicating, allowing a small arsenal to become exponentially destructive Although most pandemics "fade out engineered pathogens might be capable of causing human extinction

Bioterror leads to extinction

Mexico Currency Affirmative Supplement - Northwestern 2013 6WeekSeniors.html5

Northwestern (NHSI)

Affirmatives

2013

Continuing economic development across Mexico is opening the doors to exciting growth opportunities for U.S. businesses. Mexico is already the United States' third-largest trading partner, while the United States ranks first among Mexico's trading partners. Mexico's established manufacturing base has created many jobs and an increasingly prosperous working class. As a result, Mexico is attracting attention as a growing consumer market. The opening of 275 Walmart stores throughout Mexico last year—despite the impact of the global economic contraction—provides strong evidence that major global corporations see a bright future for the region. Last year, retail sales increased 7.4 percent as more than 2,000 new stores opened, according to Mexico's retailer association ANTAD. In addition, Mexico's future as a manufacturing base shines brighter than ever. Today, 80 percent of Mexico's exports move to the United States. Mexico also has free trade agreements involving 41 countries, and is negotiating agreements with Japan and Brazil. This diverse array of trading partners should support ongoing growth, job creation, and economic development. Further supporting job growth, more global companies are considering "right-shoring" strategies. Manufacturers are re-evaluating the costs and business risks of locating operations in distant Asian markets. Instead, they are establishing manufacturing sites closer to their critical markets in North America. With its quality, low-cost labor force, Mexico is becoming a destination of choice for these companies.

Nava 10 (Jose Fernando Nava is president, DHL Supply Chain, Latin America, “Capitalizing on Mexico’s Economic Growth” September 2010, http://www.inboundlogistics.com/cms/article/capitalizing-on-mexicos-economic-growth/)

Continuing economic development across Mexico is opening the doors to growth opportunities for U.S. businesses Mexico's base has created many jobs Mexico's future as a manufacturing base shines brighter than ever This diverse array of trading partners should support ongoing growth job creation, and economic development more global companies are considering "right-shoring" strategies. Manufacturers are re-evaluating costs in distant Asian markets they are establishing manufacturing sites closer to their critical markets in North America Mexico is becoming a destination of choice for these companies

Continued growth is key to manufacturing

Mexico Currency Affirmative Supplement - Northwestern 2013 6WeekSeniors.html5

Northwestern (NHSI)

Affirmatives

2013

However, it has been in the past decade that Mexico's aerospace manufacturing growth has mushroomed. Political reform led it to pursue a global free trade agenda vigorously and its 1994 signing of the North American Free Trade Agreement (Nafta) benefitted Mexico greatly. Still, it took about a decade for the aerospace sector to take off. Until 2004, growth was scattered, says Queretaro state Gov. Jose Calzada. Not anymore. “We've seen incredible changes in just the last five years,” he says. The boom times are a testament to Mexico's geography, its embrace of free trade and adoption of legal mechanisms that provide a “soft landing” for foreign-owned factories. Local leaders clear red tape and amaze U.S. and European executives at how quickly they can put up factories. A typical response comes from Peter Huij, a senior Fokker Aerostructures executive in Chihuahua, about how quickly the company went from bare earth in May 2011 to a completed 75,000-sq.-ft. factory in November: “It would be impossible in Europe.” Behind all of this is Mexico's Maquiladora factory system for supporting foreign companies, which allows them to control their own destiny, importing raw materials such as aerospace-quality alloys, or wiring and then exporting the finished product tax-free. Foreign manufacturers commonly turn to a large service provider—Intermex and American Industries Group are leaders for the aerospace sector—that lease buildings to their clients and handle their human resources, tax and other business needs under Mexican law. About 80% of the aerospace companies in Mexico use such services. Of the 36 Maquiladoras registered by the Mexican government last year, six were in aerospace, including a GKN Aerospace plant in Mexicali, Latecoere in Hermosillo, coatings specialist Ellison Surface Technologies and Rolls-Royce turbine supplier JJ Churchill in Guaymas and a fourth division for Zodiac in Chihuahua.

Mecham 13 (Michael, Northern California Bureau Chief @ Aviation Week & Space Technology Intelligence Network, “Mexico’s Welcome Mat Attracts Aerospace Manufacturers,” 4/1/13, http://www.aviationweek.com/Article.aspx?id=/article-xml/AW_04_01_2013_p44-562383.xml)

in the past decade Mexico's aerospace manufacturing has mushroomed it took a decade for the aerospace sector to take off Behind all of this is Mexico's Maquiladora factory system for supporting foreign companies, which allows them to control their own destiny, importing raw materials such as aerospace-quality alloys, or wiring and then exporting the finished product tax-free. Foreign manufacturers commonly turn to a large service provider—Intermex and American Industries Group are leaders for the aerospace sector 80% of the aerospace companies in Mexico use such services. Of the 36 Maquiladoras , six were in aerospace

Mexican Manufacturing Key to US aerospace – lack of regulations means high production

Mexico Currency Affirmative Supplement - Northwestern 2013 6WeekSeniors.html5

Northwestern (NHSI)

Affirmatives

2013

With its high-profile speakers and 3D simulation stations, the second annual Baja Aero Space Show did a pretty good job of putting the Mexican state of Baja California on the map — at least when it comes to aerospace manufacturing. “People’s perceptions about what cross-border manufacturing, what maquiladoras are like, is still based upon what was happening in the 70s and maybe the 80s,” said Kenn Morris, president of Crossborder Group, a San Diego-based market research firm. “The fact is that a lot of the factories, whether they produce medical devices, aerospace, or electronics; they are built in such a way these days, and they’re managed in such a way, that they can be put anywhere on the planet,” Morris said. “But they’re coming to Mexico.” According to Mexico’s Trade Ministry, more than 50 aerospace and defense companies have started operations in Baja in the last five to 10 years. Most of them are American and manufacture parts for companies like Honeywell, Goodrich and Gulfstream. They produce a wide variety of items, from electronic components, air conditioning systems, and cable harnesses, to steel bolts for commercial and military aircraft. Their advantage is the proximity to the United States and to Western ports that ship to the Asian markets. They have access to a large, high-tech workforce in Tijuana, made up of engineers, technicians and software developers. But the main reason the companies come to Baja is simple: The cost of that highly skilled labor is low — about one-third of what it is in the U.S. Currently, the Baja aerospace industry employs more than 10,000 machine operators and technicians. And that number has been growing steadily since 2007, when Mexico dropped import duties on aeronautics components. According to Mexico’s Trade Ministry, between 2007 and 2008, the amount of aerospace companies with operations in the Mexican border state grew by 50 percent.

Guidi 11 (Ruxandra Guidi, Fronteras reporter at KPBS, covering immigration, border issues and culture, recipient of Johns Hopkins University’s International Reporting Project, 9/28/11, “Border Business: Aerospace As A Binational Industry” http://www.fronterasdesk.org/news/2011/sep/28/business-mexico-aerospace-industry-maquiladora/)

putting the Mexican state of Baja California when it comes to aerospace manufacturing. “People’s perceptions about what cross-border manufacturing is based upon what was happening in the 70s that a lot of the factories they’re coming to Mexico.” more than 50 aerospace and defense companies have started operations in Baja Most of them are American and manufacture parts They produce a wide variety of items for commercial and military aircraft. Their advantage is the proximity to the United States and to Western ports that ship to the Asian markets. They have access to a large, high-tech workforce in Tijuana The cost of that highly skilled labor is low the Baja aerospace industry employs more than 10,000 operators that number has been growing the amount of aerospace companies with operations in the Mexican border state grew by 50 percent

Key to US aerospace and defense manufacturing

Mexico Currency Affirmative Supplement - Northwestern 2013 6WeekSeniors.html5

Northwestern (NHSI)

Affirmatives

2013

The most striking observation in Table 1 is that the same manufacturing industries occupy top spots for both exports and imports. Road motor vehicles, exports of which have grown in importance since 1980, were also the top Mexican import in both 1980 and 2004. Likewise, such manufacturing industry categories as Telecommunications apparatus, Other electrical machinery, Machinery and appliances-non electrical, and Office machines make up a large part of both export and import flows. This evidence of strong interindustry trade suggests that the effect of the exchange rate, and, more importantly, its volatility, might be weak. Arndt (2004), for example, discussed how production-sharing between countries and firms leads to the insensitivity of the trade balance to changes in the real exchange rate. If firms are able to hedge against risk, they will avoid potential losses that arise from this type of uncertainty. We thus expect exchange rate volatility to have a limited effect on Mexico's trade with the United States.

Bahmani-Oskooee 9 (Mohsen, Wilmeth Professor and UWM Distinguished Professor Chair, Department of Economics @ University of Wisconsin, Scott W. Hegerty, Economics professor @ Northeastern Illinois University, “The Effects of Exchange-Rate Volatility on Commodity Trade between the United States and Mexico,” Southern Economic Journal, 2009, http://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/27751431.pdf)

the same manufacturing industries occupy top spots for both exports and imports manufacturing industry categories make up a large part of both export and import flows. This evidence of strong interindustry trade suggests that the effect of the exchange rate, and, more importantly, its volatility, might be weak production-sharing between countries and firms leads to the insensitivity of the trade balance to changes in the real exchange rate. If firms are able to hedge against risk, they will avoid potential losses that arise from this type of uncertainty. We thus expect exchange rate volatility to have a limited effect on Mexico's trade with the United States

No Impact to Exchange Rate fluctuations – Production sharing

Mexico Currency Affirmative Supplement - Northwestern 2013 6WeekSeniors.html5

Northwestern (NHSI)

Affirmatives

2013

None of these studies made use of disaggregated, industry-level data. Disaggregation of aggregate or bilateral trade data by commodity allows us to identify whether specific industries are affected negatively, positively, or not at all. Thus, there is an important gap in the literature for an analysis of U.S.-Mexico bilateral trade at the industry level. We close the gap with this paper by looking at the impact of exchange rate volatility on the imports and exports of 102 industries between the two countries. To this end, we introduce our models and estimation method in section 2. The empirical results are presented in section 3, and a summary and conclusion are given in section 4. Data definitions are cited in the Appendix.

Bahmani-Oskooee 9 (Mohsen, Wilmeth Professor and UWM Distinguished Professor Chair, Department of Economics @ University of Wisconsin, Scott W. Hegerty, Economics professor @ Northeastern Illinois University, “The Effects of Exchange-Rate Volatility on Commodity Trade between the United States and Mexico,” Southern Economic Journal, 2009, http://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/27751431.pdf)

None of the studies made use of disaggregated, industry-level data. Disaggregation by commodity allows us to identify whether specific industries are affected there is an important gap in the literature for an analysis of U.S.-Mexico bilateral trade at the industry level. We close the gap with this paper by looking at the impact of exchange rate volatility on the imports and exports of 102 industries between the two countries.

Prefer Neg evidence – the aff’s aggregated data doesn’t assume individual commodities

Mexico Currency Affirmative Supplement - Northwestern 2013 6WeekSeniors.html5

Northwestern (NHSI)

Affirmatives

2013

Our paper is also related to the large and growing literature that attempts to evaluate the effects of NAFTA on the Mexican economy. This literature has analyzed among other issues the impact of NAFTA on wage inequality, aggregate growth and productivity.2 We contribute to the literature by focusing on how NAFTA altered the responsiveness of the economy to real exchange rate shocks. The causal link underlying our analysis is straight- forward: NAFTA increased the size of the external market for Mexican products. Hence, following a significant depreciation of the real exchange rate, the increase in external demand for Mexican output would be larger in the post-NAFTA era, and possibly large enough to offset the decline in domestic demand caused by the crisis.

Fuentes 5 (Miguel, Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Pablo Ibarraran, Office of Evaluation and Oversight, IADB, May 6, 2005, “Firm Dynamics And Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations: Does Trade Openness Matter? Evidence From Mexico's Manufacturing Sector,” http://www.webmeets.com/files/papers/LACEA-LAMES/2006/701/Fuentes%20Ibarraran%202005.pdf)

by focusing on how NAFTA altered the responsiveness of the economy to real exchange rate shocks. The causal link is straight- forward NAFTA increased the size of the external market for Mexican products , following a significant depreciation of the real exchange rate, the increase in external demand for Mexican output would be larger in the post-NAFTA era large enough to offset the decline in domestic demand caused by the crisis

NAFTA minimized the effect of exchange rate fluctuations – external demand

Mexico Currency Affirmative Supplement - Northwestern 2013 6WeekSeniors.html5

Northwestern (NHSI)

Affirmatives

2013

This also has another implication for exchange rate policy. Because peso devaluations correspond with periods of high volatility, and high volatility has been shown to hurt trade in more industries than it helps, devaluations can have an indirect negative impact on the trade flows of some industries. Thus, some industries in this study that did not respond in the long term to devaluations were affected by this negative "side effect." Mexican trade might benefit to some extent by both a stable peso/dollar exchange rate and a policy that avoids devaluations altogether. Appendix Data Definition

Bahmani-Oskooee 9 (Mohsen, Wilmeth Professor and UWM Distinguished Professor Chair, Department of Economics @ University of Wisconsin, Scott W. Hegerty, Economics professor @ Northeastern Illinois University, “The Effects of Exchange-Rate Volatility on Commodity Trade between the United States and Mexico,” Southern Economic Journal, 2009, http://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/27751431)

Because peso devaluations correspond with periods of high volatility, and high volatility has been shown to hurt trade in more industries than it helps, devaluations can have an indirect negative impact on the trade flows of some industries industries that did not respond in the long term to devaluations were affected by this negative "side effect." Mexican trade might benefit to some extent by both a stable peso/dollar exchange rate and a policy that avoids devaluations altogether

Volatility has indirect negative impacts on trade

Mexico Currency Affirmative Supplement - Northwestern 2013 6WeekSeniors.html5

Northwestern (NHSI)

Affirmatives

2013

Mexico’s economic outlook is different than that of the rest of Latin America. Though its economic growth underperformed its regional peers for most of the last couple of decades, the opposite trend has now taken hold. There are reasons to be skeptical, however. Expansionary periods in Mexico have been followed by financial crises during the 80s and 90s. Nevertheless, given the solid macroeconomic fundamentals and the structural reforms that are being advanced by the new administration, Mexico is in a much better position to achieve lasting economic growth. As many Latin American countries face an adverse policy outlook, they will be increasingly tempted to embrace state capitalism and further rely on nationalist measures. On the other hand, Mexico’s geographic position and integration with the world economy will provide it with the incentives to continue opening its border to international trade and investments. This means that Mexico, unlike most Latin American countries, is willing and able to serve as a more and more important strategic partner to the U.S., a country where economic issues are at the top of Obama’s second term agenda. Its economic model and proximity make Mexico a pivot state that could serve America’s interests, both domestically and geopolitically. Ultimately, assuming economic recovery in the U.S. and the passage of key structural reforms, such as the fiscal and energy ones, Mexico would secure economic growth, while outperforming that of Brazil. This would not only highlight two distinct economic views in the region, but would also create a new geopolitical configuration, with Mexico setting a model to other commodity-driven economies.

Peña-Franco 4/4 (Ramón, political risk consultant with Eurasia Group and as a Research Analyst with The Economist Group, “The Great Debate: Will Mexico Assume Clear Leadership in Latin America?” Columbia University Journal of International Affairs, 4/4/13, http://jia.sipa.columbia.edu/great-debate-will-mexico-assume-clear-leadership-latin-america)

Mexico’s economic outlook is different than that of the rest of Latin America. Though its economic growth underperformed its regional peers for most of the last couple of decades, the opposite trend has now taken hold. There are reasons to be skeptical . Expansionary periods in Mexico have been followed by financial crises , given the solid macroeconomic fundamentals and the structural reforms Mexico is in a much better position to achieve lasting economic growth. As many Latin American countries face an adverse policy outlook, they will be tempted to embrace state capitalism and nationalist measures Mexico’s geographic position and integration with the world economy will provide it with the incentives to continue opening its border to international trade and investments Its economic model and proximity make Mexico a pivot state that could serve America’s interests, both domestically and geopolitically assuming economic recovery in the U.S. and the passage of key structural reforms, such as the fiscal and energy ones, Mexico would secure economic growth This would not only highlight two distinct economic views in the region, but would create a new geopolitical configuration, with Mexico setting a model

Mexican trade spills over – geographic position creates unique opportunities

Mexico Currency Affirmative Supplement - Northwestern 2013 6WeekSeniors.html5

Northwestern (NHSI)

Affirmatives

2013

Pragmatic Leadership The global economic turmoil of recent years has made this much clear: arguably the most important determinant of economic success is leaders who understand and can implement the reforms required for growth. It’s far too early in the Peña Nieto administration to declare success, but the president and his team have been highly effective thus far. Labor, accounting and education reform measures passed during the transition were substantive accomplishments and signaled a break from years of inaction and gridlock. The "Pacto por México," announced after hours of the inauguration, saw the three main political parties presenting a unified front for the first time in decades. Fiscal and energy reform are top priorities, as both are essential if the country is to accelerate growth and improve its competitiveness. The mere fact that a PRI government is willing to tackle both underscores the generational shift within the party and growing acceptance of the need for change in how the country manages its economic affairs. A Favorable Convergence of Issues A short list of the issues and developments that appear to be trending positively includes: a recovering U.S. economy; growing global demand for U.S. and Mexican manufactures; a likely reform of U.S. immigration policies; the rising costs of doing business in China and transatlantic interest in deepening trade and investment ties with Latin America. Mexico faces brighter prospects than it has in decades. But to fully realize the promise of what the president has termed “Mexico’s moment,” the administration must do more than ensure progress on the economic front. It must also modernize institutions, strengthen its commitment to good governance, assert the rule of law, support human rights, lead on the environment and promote greater inclusiveness. Mexico has set its sights high. By aiming even higher, it just might find itself not only growing, but leading in Latin America and transitioning into a real leadership role in the world.

Garza 2/22/13 (Antonio Garza served as U.S. Ambassador to Mexico from 2002-2009, “A More Ambitious Vision for Mexico” http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/opinion/2013/02/22/more-ambitious-vision-for-mexico/)

the most important determinant of economic success is leaders who understand and can implement the reforms required for growth Fiscal and energy reform are top priorities issues and developments appear to be trending positively growing global demand for Mexican manufactures rising costs of doing business in China and transatlantic interest in deepening trade and investment ties with Latin America Mexico faces brighter prospects than it has in decades Mexico has set its sights high it just might find itself leading in Latin America and transitioning into a real leadership role

Mexican growth is key to regional leadership and trade

Mexico Currency Affirmative Supplement - Northwestern 2013 6WeekSeniors.html5

Northwestern (NHSI)

Affirmatives

2013

For the sake of comparison, we provide key results for total exports and imports alongside our industry analysis. The cointegration statistics are given in Table 2; the relevant short- and long-term coefficients are presented in Table 3 for exports and Table 4 for imports. Both exports and imports are found to be cointegrated with the explanatory variables; although, the evidence is somewhat weaker for Mexican imports. The key result from these total trade specifications is that neither the real exchange rate nor its volatility has any statistically significant long-run effect on aggregate export or import flows. This is consistent with our prediction that interindustry trade might render the peso/dollar exchange rate less effective on Mexico's total trade with the United States. It also suggests that the use of disaggregated data is necessary to uncover significant industry effects that are obscured when aggregate trade data are used. These effects will be discussed in more detail later.

Bahmani-Oskooee 9 (Mohsen, Wilmeth Professor and UWM Distinguished Professor Chair, Department of Economics @ University of Wisconsin, Scott W. Hegerty, Economics professor @ Northeastern Illinois University, “The Effects of Exchange-Rate Volatility on Commodity Trade between the United States and Mexico,” Southern Economic Journal, 2009, http://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/27751431.pdf)

For The cointegration statistics The key result from these total trade specifications is that neither the real exchange rate nor its volatility has any statistically significant long-run effect on aggregate export or import flows. This is consistent with our prediction that interindustry trade might render the peso/dollar exchange rate less effective on Mexico's total trade with the United States the use of disaggregated data is necessary to uncover significant industry effects that are obscured when aggregate trade data are used

Doesn’t affect overall trade

Mexico Currency Affirmative Supplement - Northwestern 2013 6WeekSeniors.html5

Northwestern (NHSI)

Affirmatives

2013

However important and beneficial this interdependence may be from an economic point of view, it is not likely to be a significant factor for strategic stability. Famously, economists before World War I sounded clear warnings that Europe had become economically interdependent to an extent that war there would ruin Europe. The war was fought nevertheless, Europe was duly ruined, and the ensuing political consequences haunted Europe to the end of World War II. Other cases exist. Modern war has been an economic disaster. Economic realities, including economic interdependence, play little role in whether a country goes to war or not. Economic myths certainly do and they usually affect strategic stability quite negatively. This is another reason why domestic perceptions matter: they determine which myths are believed.

May 5—Professor Emeritus (Research) in the Stanford University School of Engineering and a senior fellow with the Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. Former co-director of Stanford University's Center for International Security and Cooperation. Principal Investigator for the DHS. (Michael, “The U.S.-China Strategic Relationship,” September 2005, http://www.ccc.nps.navy.mil/si/2005/Sep/maySep05.asp)

economists before World War I sounded warnings that Europe had become economically interdependent to an extent that war would ruin Europe. The war was fought nevertheless interdependence, play little role in whether a country goes to war

Interdependence doesn’t solve war

Mexico Currency Affirmative Supplement - Northwestern 2013 6WeekSeniors.html5

Northwestern (NHSI)

Affirmatives

2013

In fact, the theory of a unitary executive has nothing to do with the extent of presidential power but only with who is to exercise those powers, however broad, allocated to the executive. Its proponents seek not to evade the limitations of separated powers, but rather insist— especially when dealing with the other branches—that the President alone is responsible for the actions of the executive branch. The idea seems ominous today because so many functions have been allocated to the now-fragmented executive branch that reuniting it under presidential leadership seems to the present generation both to enhance presidential authority unimaginably and to create an unmanageable administrative structure. We suggest the “unitary executive” has fallen into ill repute and apparent obsolescence not because of an executive bent upon autocracy but because of a legislature freed from the constraints of the separation of powers. In Part I we introduce the nondelegation doctrine as a necessary corollary of the unitary executive and examine the failure of the Supreme Court to enforce that doctrine. In Part II we examine the similar failure of the President to resist encroachments by the Congress. In Part III we explore the implications of these failures.

Ginsburg and Menashi 10 (Douglas H Ginsburg, U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia, and Steven Menashi, Georgetown University Law Center, Kirkland and Ellis LLP, Universtity of Pennsylvania Journal of Constitutional Law, Vol. 12, No. 2, p. 251, http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1567819)

the theory of a unitary executive has to do with who is to exercise powers allocated to the executive. Its proponents seek not to evade the limitations of separated powers, but insist the President alone is responsible for the actions of the executive branch We suggest the “unitary executive” has fallen into ill repute and apparent obsolescence not because of an executive bent upon autocracy but because of a legislature freed from the constraints of the separation of powers In Part II we examine the similar failure of the President to resist encroachments by the Congress

Congress has too much power now, unitary executive power is key to restoring SOP

Mexico Currency Affirmative Supplement - Northwestern 2013 6WeekSeniors.html5

Northwestern (NHSI)

Affirmatives

2013

Considering the forces arrayed against the President within his own branch of government, we recur to Madison’s insight that “the weakness of the executive may require . . . that it should be fortified.” 76 Perhaps the greatest and most vigorous exponent of an expansive administrative state, Franklin Roosevelt, was acutely aware of the need to shore up the executive against the Congress, as is highlighted by the episode, recounted in The Unitary Executive, concerning the Brownlow Committee. Louis Brownlow, an architect of FDR’s domestic policy, also served as chairman of his Committee on Administrative Management, which recommended (with the President’s enthusiastic support) the integration of the so-called independent agencies into the executive departments. The Committee observed that the Constitution “places in the President, and in the President alone, the whole executive power of the Government of the United States,”77 yet “governmental powers of great importance are being exercised under conditions of virtual irresponsibility” by regulatory commissions beyond the President’s direction: The commissions produce confusion, conflict, and incoherence in the formulation and in the execution of the President’s policies. Not only by constitutional theory, but by the steady and mounting insistence of public opinion, the President is held responsible for the wise and efficient management of the Executive Branch of the Government. The people look to him for leadership. And yet we whittle away the effective control essential to that leadership by parceling out to a dozen or more irresponsible agencies important powers of policy and administration.78 The Committee concluded the so-called independent agencies had become a “‘fourth branch’ of the government for which there is no sanction in the Constitution” and which had begun to “defeat[] the constitutional intent that there be a single responsible Chief Executive to coordinate and manage the departments and activities in accordance with the laws enacted by the Congress.”79 The Committee implicitly invoked the Lockean nondelegation principle that stood behind the constitutional design: “[p]ower without responsibility has no place in a government based on the theory of democratic control,” read its report, “for responsibility is the people’s only weapon, their only insurance against abuse of power.”80 In other, more familiar words, the people having delegated legislative power to the Congress, that power could not properly be delegated further to unelected and hence potentially unaccountable agencies.81 The Brownlow Committee’s recommendations represented the executive’s attempt to maintain the constitutional separation of powers through a robust nondelegation doctrine, on the one hand, and a unitary executive branch, on the other. Notably, the President said in transmitting the report to the Congress: What I am placing before you is not the request for more power, but for the tools of management and the authority to distribute the work so that the President can effectively discharge those powers which the Constitution now places upon him. Unless we are prepared to abandon this important part of the Constitution, we must equip the Presidency with authority commensurate with his responsibilities under the Constitution.82

Ginsburg and Menashi 10 (Douglas H Ginsburg, U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia, and Steven Menashi, Georgetown University Law Center, Kirkland and Ellis LLP, Universtity of Pennsylvania Journal of Constitutional Law, Vol. 12, No. 2, p. 251, http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1567819)

the weakness of the executive may require . . . that it should be fortified. the greatest and most vigorous exponent of an expansive administrative state, Franklin Roosevelt, was aware of the need to shore up the executive against the Congress The Committee observed that the Constitution “places in the President, and in the President alone, the whole executive power of the Government of the United States governmental powers of great importance are being exercised under conditions of virtual irresponsibility” by regulatory commissions beyond the President’s direction: The commissions produce confusion, conflict, and incoherence the President’s policies the President is responsible for leadership yet we whittle away the effective control essential to that leadership by parceling out to a dozen or more irresponsible agencies important powers of policy and administration The Committee concluded the so-called independent agencies had become a “‘fourth branch’ of the government for which there is no sanction in the Constitution , the people having delegated legislative power to the Congress, that power could not properly be delegated further to unelected and hence potentially unaccountable agencies the President said in transmitting the report to the Congress: What I am placing before you is not the request for more power, but for the tools of management and the authority to distribute the work so that the President can effectively discharge those powers which the Constitution now places upon him

The president needs more power to keep congress from delegating to non-reputable agencies

Mexico Currency Affirmative Supplement - Northwestern 2013 6WeekSeniors.html5

Northwestern (NHSI)

Affirmatives

2013

This logic also sheds light on the role of economic crises in threatening democratic regimes. What matters is not the rate of growth per se but the impact of economic crises on the level of per capita income. Each country, characterized by its income distribution, has some specific threshold of per capita income above which democracy survives independently of election results. Economic crises matter if they result in income declining from above to below this threshold, but not when they occur at income levels below or well above this threshold. In Venezuela, which enjoyed democracy during forty-four years, per capita income declined to one half of its peak level and this decline may be responsible for the emergence of anti-democratic forces in that country. But economic crises do not threaten democracy in wealthier countries.

Przeworski 4 (Adam, Professor @ Department of Politics @ New York University, “Democracy and Economic Development,” 2004, http://as.nyu.edu/docs/IO/2800/sisson.pdf)

logic sheds light on the role of economic crises in threatening democratic regimes. What matters is not the rate of growth but the impact of economic crises on the level of per capita income. Each country has some specific threshold above which democracy survives Economic crises matter if they result in income declining from above to below this threshold per capita income declined to one half of its peak level and this decline may be responsible for the emergence of anti-democratic forces in that country

Decline Kills Democracy – Per Capita Incomes

Mexico Currency Affirmative Supplement - Northwestern 2013 6WeekSeniors.html5

Northwestern (NHSI)

Affirmatives

2013

Democracy has a positive effect on environmental quality. The theory suggests that democracy sustains and encourages freedom of speech, freedom of press, political participation and social awareness. These elements provide a conduit for social demands. As urban population and income grow, citizens increase their demand for higher environmental standards and quality. The enactment of new policies and regulations that incentive individuals and firms may lead to a reduction in pollution, environmental degradation and deforestation; therefore, leading to a higher level of environmental quality.¶ This study analyzed 19 Latin America countries for the period 1995-2008. A panel data system of equations estimates suggest that a 10% increase in democracy may reduce CO2 emissions per capita in 0.48% or 0.60% in Latin America. Similarly, a 10% increase in education may reduce emissions in 0.71% or 0.73%. These results suggest that democracy and education have a positive effect on environmental quality.

Callejas 10 (Danny, Professor of Economics at the Universidad de Antioquia, Colombia, “Democracy and Environmental Quality in Latin America: A Panel System of Equations Approach, 1995-2008,” November)

Democracy has a positive effect on environmental quality. The theory suggests that democracy sustains and encourages freedom of speech, freedom of press, political participation and social awareness. These elements provide a conduit for social demands. As urban population and income grow, citizens increase their demand for higher environmental standards and quality. The enactment of new policies and regulations that incentive individuals and firms may lead to a reduction in pollution, environmental degradation and deforestation; therefore, leading to a higher level of environmental quality. This study analyzed 19 Latin America countries These results suggest that democracy and education have a positive effect on environmental quality.

Latin American democracy solves the environment

Mexico Currency Affirmative Supplement - Northwestern 2013 6WeekSeniors.html5

Northwestern (NHSI)

Affirmatives

2013

A second major interest is the promotion of democracy. At first glance, this might appear to be a peripheral concern. For much of its history, the United States was perfectly comfortable with authoritarian regimes in Latin America, so long as they did not threaten higher priority interests like regional security or U.S. economic holdings. But that is no longer the case. U.S. values have changed; democracy has been elevated to the status of an "important" interest. In part, this has been because American leaders have gained a greater appreciation of the role of legitimacy as a source of political stability. Governments that are popularly elected and respect human rights and the rule of law are less dangerous to both their citizens and their neighbors. Nations which are substantively democratic tend not to go to war with one another. They are also less vulnerable to the threat of internal war provoked, in part, by government violence and illegality.(5) In short, democracy and economic integration are not simply value preferences, but are increasingly bound up with hemispheric security. To take just one example: The restoration of democracy in Brazil and Argentina and their increasingly strong and profitable relationship in Mercosur have contributed in no small degree to their decisions to foresake the development of nuclear weapons. Perceptions of threat have declined, and perceptions of the benefits of cooperation have grown, and this has permitted progress on a range of security issues from border disputes, to peacekeeping, environmental protection, counternarcotics, and the combat of organized crime.¶ CONTINUES¶ Until recently, the primary U.S. concern about Brazil has been that it might acquire nuclear weapons and delivery systems. In the 1970s, the Brazilian military embarked on a secret program to develop an atom bomb. By the late 1980s, both Brazil and Argentina were aggressively pursuing nuclear development programs that had clear military spin-offs.54 There were powerful military and civilian advocates of developing nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles within both countries. Today, however, the situation has changed. As a result of political leadership transitions in both countries, Brazil and Argentina now appear firmly committed to restricting their nuclear programs to peaceful purposes. They have entered into various nuclear-related agreements with each other—most notably the quadripartite comprehensive safeguards agreement (1991), which permits the inspection of all their nuclear installations by the International Atomic Energy Agency—and have joined the Missile Technology Control Regime. Even so, no one can be certain about the future. As Scott Tollefson has observed: • . . the military application of Brazil’s nuclear and space programs depends less on technological considerations than on political will. While technological constraints present a formidable barrier to achieving nuclear bombs and ballistic missiles, that barrier is not insurmountable. The critical element, therefore, in determining the applications of Brazil’s nuclear and space technologies will be primarily political.55 Put simply, if changes in political leadership were instrumental in redirecting Brazil’s nuclear program towards peaceful purposes, future political upheavals could still produce a reversion to previous orientations. Civilian supremacy is not so strong that it could not be swept away by a coup, especially if the legitimacy of the current democratic experiment were to be undermined by economic crisis and growing poverty/inequality. Nor are civilian leaders necessarily less militaristic or more committed to democracy than the military. The example of Peru’s Fujimori comes immediately to mind. How serious a threat might Brazil potentially be? It has been estimated that if the nuclear plant at Angra dos Reis (Angra I) were only producing at 30 percent capacity, it could produce five 20-kiloton weapons a year. If production from other plants were included, Brazil would have a capability three times greater than India or Pakistan. Furthermore, its defense industry already has a substantial missile producing capability. On the other hand, the country has a very limited capacity to project its military power via air and sealift or to sustain its forces over long distances. And though a 1983 law authorizes significant military manpower increases (which could place Brazil at a numerical level slightly higher than France, Iran and Pakistan), such growth will be restricted by a lack of economic resources. Indeed, the development of all these military potentials has been, and will continue to be, severely constrained by a lack of money. (Which is one reason Brazil decided to engage in arms control with Argentina in the first p1ace.) In short, a restoration of Brazilian militarism, imbued with nationalistic ambitions for great power status, is not unthinkable, and such a regime could present some fairly serious problems. That government would probably need foreign as well as domestic enemies to help justify it’s existence. One obvious candidate would be the United States, which would presumably be critical of any return to dictatorial rule. Beyond this, moreover, the spectre of a predatory international community, covetous of the riches of the Amazon, could help rally political support to the regime. For years, some Brazilian military officers have been warning of “foreign intervention.” Indeed, as far back as 1991 General Antenor de Santa Cruz Abreu, then chief of the Military Command of the Amazon, threatened to transform the region into a “new Vietnam” if developed countries tried to “internationalize” the Amazon. Subsequently, in 1993, U.S.-Guyanese combined military exercises near the Brazilian border provoked an angry response from many high-ranking Brazilian officers.57 Since then, of course, U.S.-Brazilian relations have improved considerably. Nevertheless, the basic U.S./ international concerns over the Amaazon—the threat to the region’s ecology through burning and deforestation, the presence of narcotrafficking activities, the Indian question, etc.—have not disappeared, and some may very well intensify in the years ahead. At the same time, if the growing trend towards subregional economic groupings—in particular, MERCOSUR—continues, it is likely to increase competition between Southern Cone and NAFTA countries. Economic conflicts, in turn, may be expected to intensify political differences, and could lead to heightened politico-military rivalry between different blocs or coalitions in the hemisphere.

Schulz 2k (Donald Schulz, Chairman of the Political Science Department at Cleveland State University, March 2000, The United States and Latin America: Shaping an Elusive Future, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub31.pdf)

A major interest is the promotion of democracy American leaders have gained a greater appreciation of the role of legitimacy as a source of political stability. Governments that are popularly elected and respect human rights and the rule of law are less dangerous to both their citizens and their neighbors. Nations which are substantively democratic tend not to go to war with one another. They are also less vulnerable to the threat of internal war provoked, in part, by government violence and illegality.(5) In short, democracy and economic integration are not simply value preferences, but are increasingly bound up with hemispheric security. To take just one example: The restoration of democracy in Brazil and Argentina and their increasingly strong and profitable relationship in Mercosur have contributed in no small degree to their decisions to foresake the development of nuclear weapons. Perceptions of threat have declined, and perceptions of the benefits of cooperation have grown, and this has permitted progress on a range of security issues As a result of political leadership transitions in both countries, Brazil and Argentina appear firmly committed to restricting their nuclear programs to peaceful purposes Even so, no one can be certain about the future. the military application of Brazil’s nuclear and space programs depends less on technological considerations than on political will. changes in political leadership were instrumental in redirecting Brazil’s nuclear program towards peaceful purposes, future political upheavals could still produce a reversion to previous orientations. Civilian supremacy is not so strong that it could not be swept away by a coup, especially if the legitimacy of the current democratic experiment were to be undermined Brazil would have a capability three times greater than India or Pakistan That government would need foreign enemies to help justify it’s existence. One obvious candidate would be the U S Abreu threatened to transform the region into a “new Vietnam” if developed countries tried to “internationalize” the Amazon Economic conflicts could lead to heightened politico-military rivalry between different blocs or coalitions in the hemisphere.

Democratic backsliding in Latin America causes regional proliferation and nuclear conflict

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2013

As the world continues to grapple with the issues of non-proliferation and disarmament, the experience of Latin America and the Caribbean in creating the Tlatelolco regime remains important. One should be careful not to generalise to much from the experience of one disarmament regime in a region almost unique in its absence of serious armed conflict[128] Nonetheless, the Tlatelolco experience does provide some lessons that that advocates of nuclear disarmament would be wise to heed. The Latin American NWFZ demonstrates quite clearly the wisdom in creating a treaty with the long game in mind.¶ The flexible entry-into force-requirements allowed the Treaty to gain vital impetus at its inception while it also kept the more reluctant countries tied to the treaty’s principles. Together with its flexible amendment procedure, this allowed it to pick up momentum when favourable changes in geopolitics and domestic conditions permitted it. Using this formula the Treaty of Tlatelolco created the first nuclear-weapon-free zone in the inhabited world, and has successfully expanded to include every state in the region. With the successful product of ingenuity, dedication and above all patience, Latin America’s NWFZ has consolidated the regions reputation for peaceful co-operation. The Treaty’s permanent secretariat, OPANAL, is active in both building regional consensus and in enhancing the region’s presence in international organizations. While it remains to be seen how future disarmament efforts will unfold, Latin American states are well positioned to play a significant role in the continuing efforts aimed at reaching the goal of a world free of nuclear weapons.

Beamont and Rubinsky 12 (Paul D. Beamont and Thomas Rubinsky, International Law and Policy Institute, “An Introduction to the Issue of Nuclear Weapons in Latin America and the Caribbean,” December, http://nwp.ilpi.org/?p=1851)

As the world continues to grapple with the issues of non-proliferation and disarmament, the experience of Latin America and the Caribbean in creating the Tlatelolco regime remains important. the Treaty of Tlatelolco created the first nuclear-weapon-free zone in the inhabited world, and has successfully expanded to include every state in the region. Latin America’s NWFZ has consolidated the regions reputation for peaceful co-operation. The Treaty is active in enhancing the region’s presence in international organizations. Latin American states are well positioned to play a significant role in the continuing efforts aimed at reaching the goal of a world free of nuclear weapons.

Key to stop global prolif

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2013

Deterrence relationships in Asia won’t look like East–West deterrence. They won’t be relationships of mutual assured destruction (MAD), and there will be many asymmetries among them. Regional nuclear-weapon states will articulate a spectrum of strategies ranging from existential deterrence to minimum deterrence to assured retaliation; and sometimes doctrinal statements will outrun capabilities. The smaller arsenals of Asia and the absence of severe confrontations will help to keep doctrines at the level of generalised deterrence. Extended nuclear deterrence will continue to be important to US allies in East Asia, although it is hard to imagine other Asian nuclear weapon states ‘extending’ deterrence to their clients or allies. Alagappa’s propositions contain a ‘picture’ of what a more proliferated Asia might look like. It could well remain a region where deterrence dominates, and where arsenals are typically constrained: an Asia, in fact, that falls some way short of a ‘nuclear chaos’ model of unrestrained proliferation and mushrooming nuclear dangers.¶ An order in flux? Notwithstanding Alagappa’s more reassuring view, we shouldn’t understate the extent of the looming change from a nuclear relationship based on bipolar symmetry to a set of relationships based on multiplayer asymmetries. As one observer has noted, when you add to that change the relatively constrained size of nuclear arsenals in Asia, the likelihood of further nuclear reductions by the US and Russia, and ballistic missile defences of uncertain effectiveness, the world is about to enter uncharted territory (Ford 2009:125).¶ Some factors certainly act as stabilising influences on the current nuclear order, not least that nuclear weapons (here as elsewhere) typically induce caution, that the regional great powers tend to get along reasonably well with each other and that the region enters its era of nuclear pre-eminence inheriting a strong set of robust norms and regimes from the earlier nuclear era. But other factors imply a period of looming change: geopolitical dynamism is rearranging strategic relationships; the number of risk-tolerant adversaries seems to be increasing; most nuclear weapons states are modernising their arsenals; the American arsenal is ageing; and the US’s position of primacy is increasingly contested in Asia.¶ Indeed, it may be that dynamism which could most seriously undermine the Solingen model of East Asian nonproliferation. Solingen, after all, has not attempted to produce a general theory about proliferation; she has attempted to explain only proliferation in the post-NPT age (see Solingen 2007:3), when the P-5 of the UN Security Council already had nuclear weapons. In essence, though, it’s exactly that broader geopolitical order that might be shifting. It isn’t yet clear how the Asian nuclear order will evolve. It’s one of those uncertainties that define Australia’s shifting strategic environment. It’s not too hard to imagine an order that’s more competitive than the one we see now.¶ The ‘managed system of deterrence’¶ The second approach to thinking about the Asian nuclear order is to attempt to superimpose upon it William Walker’s two key mechanisms of the first nuclear age: the ‘managed system of deterrence’ and the ‘managed system of abstinence’. What might those ‘systems’ look like in Asia?¶ In Walker’s model, the managed system of deterrence included:¶ the deployment of military hardware under increasingly sophisticated command and control; the development of strategic doctrines to ensure mutual vulnerability and restraint; and the establishment of arms control processes through which policy elites engaged in dialogue and negotiated binding agreements. (Walker 2007:436)¶ It isn’t obvious that those core aspects of the ‘managed’ system are all central features of Asian nuclear relationships. Perhaps most importantly, it isn’t obvious that the world even has a good model for how deterrence works in asymmetric relationships. Within the US, there’s been something of a revival of interest in matters nuclear as strategic analysts attempt to reconceptualise how nuclear relationships might work in the future. Recent work on the problems of exercising deterrence across asymmetrical strategic contests, for example, suggests a number of problems: ‘In asymmetric conflict situations, deterrence may not only be unable to prevent violence but may also help foment it’ (Adler 2009:103).¶ Some of the problems arise precisely because weaker players seem increasingly likely to ‘test’ stronger players’ threats—as part of a pattern of conflict that has emerged over recent centuries, in which weaker players have often prevailed against stronger opponents.3 If we were to look at the case study of the India–Pakistan nuclear relationship—which is grounded in an enduring strategic rivalry, and therefore not ‘typical’ of the broader nuclear relationships in Asia—it’s a moot point whether Pakistani behaviour has been much altered by the ‘deterrence’ policies of India.¶ Indeed, the case seems to show that Pakistan doesn’t even accept a long-term condition of strategic asymmetry with India, and that it intends to use its nuclear weapons as an ‘equaliser’ against India’s larger conventional forces by building a nuclear arsenal larger than the Indian arsenal arrayed against it. That would imply, more broadly, that increasing strategic rivalries across Asia could be accompanied by efforts to minimise asymmetrical disadvantages between a much wider range of players. In short, in a more competitive Asian strategic environment, nuclear asymmetries that are tolerable now might well become less tolerable.¶ Furthermore, we need to think about how we might ‘codify’ deterrence in Asia. In the Cold War days, the MAD doctrine tended to be reflected in arms control accords that limited wasteful spending and corralled the competition. As Walker acknowledges, the agreements were important ‘stabilisers’ of the broader nuclear relationship, but to what extent can they be replicated in conditions of asymmetry? It might be possible to codify crisis management procedures, but designing (and verifying) limitations on weapons numbers would seem to be much more difficult when the arsenals are of uneven size, and when the weaker party (perhaps both parties) would probably be relying on secrecy about the numbers and locations of weapons to minimise the vulnerability of their arsenals.

Lyon 9 Program Director, Strategy and International, with Australian Strategic Policy Institute, previously a Senior Lecturer in International Relations at the University of Queensland, “A delicate issue, Asia’s nuclear future”, December, online

Deterrence relationships in Asia won’t be relationships of mutual assured destruction and there will be many asymmetries among them. Regional nuclear-weapon states will articulate a spectrum of strategies and doctrinal statements will outrun capabilities Notwithstanding Alagappa’s more reassuring view, we shouldn’t understate the extent of the looming change from a nuclear relationship based on bipolar symmetry to a set of relationships based on multiplayer asymmetries Some factors certainly act as stabilising influences But other factors imply a period of looming change: geopolitical dynamism is rearranging strategic relationships; the number of risk-tolerant adversaries seems to be increasing It isn’t obvious that core aspects of the ‘managed’ system are central features of Asian nuclear relationships In asymmetric conflict situations, deterrence may not only be unable to prevent violence but may also help foment it’ problems arise precisely because weaker players seem increasingly likely to ‘test’ stronger players’ threats—as part of a pattern of conflict that has emerged over recent centuries, in which weaker players have often prevailed against stronger opponents. increasing strategic rivalries across Asia could be accompanied by efforts to minimise asymmetrical disadvantages between a much wider range of players in a more competitive Asian strategic environment, nuclear asymmetries that are tolerable now might well become less tolerable. In the Cold War arms control accords were important ‘stabilisers’ of the nuclear relationship, but limitations on weapons numbers would seem to be much more difficult when the arsenals are of uneven size, and when the weaker party would probably be relying on secrecy about the numbers and locations of weapons to minimise the vulnerability of their arsenals.

New prolif ensures widespread nuclear conflict --- asymmetries

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2013

When TCOs and gangs become the de facto government in portions of the national territory, it is more than a national security problem; it is a development problem that goes to the heart of democratic governance. As they become more deeply involved in politics, real estate, and religious and community organizations, gangs and their allies become social and political actors. Although it appears that monetary gain is the primary motivation for the various gang activities, they are simultaneously challenging governments for virtual control of parts of the state. Their objective is to intimidate the state and its citizenry into submission and obtain a free hand to pursue their lucrative illicit businesses without interference. They have no interest in overthrowing governments, but this violent coercion of the legitimate system is at minimum a criminal insurgency. Even partial collapse of the state is tantamount to the physical erosion of democracy (Manwaring, 2011), and, the populace consequently often brings into question the efficacy of democracy. Such a situation may not constitute “an unconstitutional alteration of the constitutional regime,” as anticipated in Article 20 of the IADC, but there should be no doubt that it “seriously impairs the democratic order in a member state.”

Bryan 12 (Anthony T, senior associate in the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C. and an Honorary Senior Fellow at the Institute of International Relations at the University of the West Indies-St. Augustine, May 7, 2012, “Democracy and Security: Observations from Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean,” http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.2041-7373.2012.00058.x/full)

When gangs become the de facto government in portions of the national territory it is a development problem that goes to the heart of democratic governance. As they become more deeply involved , gangs and their allies become social and political actors they are challenging governments for virtual control of parts of the state . They have no interest in overthrowing governments, but this violent coercion of the legitimate system is at minimum a criminal insurgency Even partial collapse of the state is tantamount to the physical erosion of democracy and, the populace consequently often brings into question the efficacy of democracy it “seriously impairs the democratic order in a member state.”

Drug violence kills Democracy – obviates popular support

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2013

Yet the current period in world history defies these patterns. By all accounts, the global financial crisis that began in September 2008 has triggered the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. Yet it appears to have had little effect on the survival of democracy so far, for three reasons. First, the countries hardest hit economically by the financial crisis have mostly been the wealthy, industrialized democracies or the new European market economies. As Przeworski and his colleagues also showed, democracy has never broken down in a wealthy country, and after many decades of successful functioning, these democracies are now consolidated and deeply institutionalized. The postcommunist democracies of Central and Eastern Europe that have recently been admitted into the European Union (and that would face enormous economic costs for abandoning democracy) also now appear to be consolidated. Second, in the newer and weaker democracies (including both the upper-middle-income ones in Eastern Europe and the less developed ones), the effect of economic turbulence has been the defeat of democratically elected governments but not the demise of democracy. And third, the breakdowns of democracy that have been occurring largely predate the onset of the global recession and are due to bad internal governance, not unfavorable global conditions. In fact, in a surprising number of instances, democratic breakdowns occurred while aggregate rates of economic growth were fairly robust. The analysis that follows should not be read as implying that economic circumstances make no difference to the fate of fragile democracies. On the contrary, the data from recent decades suggests that such circumstances do matter—especially for younger and lower-income demo cracies.5 But where governance is bad—in particular, where corruption and abuse of power are rampant, and where inequality is extreme and intensifying—it may not matter much for democracy that the economy as a whole is expanding. To the extent that democracies depend for their survival on the support or at least acquiescence of the governed, bad governance undermines that support and inclines at-risk democracies toward calamity. Both survey data and objective trends suggest that in the short run, political factors may be more important than economic ones in determining the fate of new and fragile democracies. Thus, even if the world economy recovers quickly and vigorously from the current [End Page 18] recession, more democracies will fail if they do not improve the quality of governance and rein in abuse of power.

Diamond 11 (Larry, Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, professor by courtesy of political science and sociology @ Stanford University, and founding co-editor of the Journal of Democracy, “Why Democracies Survive,” Journal of Democracy Volume 22, Number 1, January 2011, http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/journal_of_democracy/v022/22.1.diamond.html)

the current period defies patterns the global financial crisis that began in 2008 has triggered the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. Yet it appears to have had little effect on the survival of democracy for three reasons the countries hardest hit economically by the financial crisis have mostly been the wealthy, industrialized democracies or the new European market economies democracy has never broken down in a wealthy country after many decades of successful functioning democracies are consolidated and deeply institutionalized postcommunist democracies now appear to be consolidated in the newer and weaker democracies the effect of economic turbulence has been the defeat of democratically elected governments but not the demise of democracy. breakdowns of democracy that have been occurring largely predate the onset of the global recession and are due to bad internal governance, not unfavorable global conditions in a surprising number of instances, democratic breakdowns occurred while aggregate rates of economic growth were fairly robust But where governance is bad—in particular, where corruption and abuse of power are rampant, and where inequality is extreme and intensifying—it may not matter much for democracy that the economy as a whole is expanding bad governance undermines that support and inclines at-risk democracies toward calamity , political factors may be more important than economic ones in determining the fate of new and fragile democracies

Economic Growth doesn’t sustain democracy

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2013

What has been the political impact on democracy in the economically harder-hit countries? So far, surprisingly little: Governments have come and gone, but democracy has remained. Both effects—the instability of governments and the stability of democracy—have been quite striking. In those democracies that have been hit harder by the recession but are more strongly rooted as democracies, incumbents have often taken an electoral beating. In my count of the 32 democratic elections that have taken place in these countries (where power was up for grabs) between October 2008 and October 2010, the party of the incumbent president or prime minister has lost slightly more than half the time (17 elections).12 Overall, as we see in Table 2 on page 28, incumbent parties or presidents have gone down to defeat or suffered a setback in 19 of 34 elections.13 The impression of tough sledding for incumbents is intensified by the severe setbacks that ruling parties have encountered in midterm elections [End Page 23] held by the presidential systems in Argentina, Mexico, and Venezuela (and if one widens the optic to include the wealthier democracies, the United States as well).

Diamond 11 (Larry, Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, professor by courtesy of political science and sociology @ Stanford University, and founding co-editor of the Journal of Democracy, “Why Democracies Survive,” Journal of Democracy Volume 22, Number 1, January 2011, http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/journal_of_democracy/v022/22.1.diamond.html)

What has been the political impact on democracy in the economically harder-hit countries surprisingly little: Governments have come and gone, but democracy has remained stability of democracy have been quite striking. In democracies hit harder by the recession but are more strongly rooted incumbents have often taken an electoral beating. In the 32 democratic elections that have taken place , the party of the incumbent president or prime minister has lost slightly more than half the time The impression of tough sledding for incumbents is intensified by the severe setbacks that ruling parties have encountered in midterm elections

Decline doesn’t hurt democracy – backlash against incumbents

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Northwestern (NHSI)

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2013

Second, the global incidence of democratic breakdowns has been increasing as this long third wave continues. If we count not only blatant democratic reversals—by either military or executive coup—but also incremental degradations of the democratic process that eventually drag a system below the threshold of electoral democracy, then by my count (which is very close to that of Freedom House) one of every five democracies that has existed during the third wave has been reversed. This is a significantly higher percentage than is generally appreciated. And more important, it is a significantly higher percentage than was the case just a few years ago, because the incidence of democratic reversals has been rising. In fact, three-fifths of the thirty democratic reversals that have occurred during the 35 years of the third wave have occurred in the last decade or so (beginning with the Pakistani coup in October 1999), and eight democracies broke down just in the recent three-year period spanning 2007 through 2009 (see Table 1 on page 20). I would not yet term this a “reverse wave,” but the number of transitions away from democracy is beginning to exceed the number toward democracy. And note that recent breakdowns have occurred in large and strategically important states such as the oil exporters Nigeria, Russia, and Venezuela as well as Bangladesh, Pakistan, the Philippines, and Thailand.

Diamond 11 (Larry, Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, professor by courtesy of political science and sociology @ Stanford University, and founding co-editor of the Journal of Democracy, “Why Democracies Survive,” Journal of Democracy Volume 22, Number 1, January 2011, http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/journal_of_democracy/v022/22.1.diamond.html)

the global incidence of democratic breakdowns has been increasing as this long third wave continues. If we count incremental degradations then one of every five democracies that has existed during the third wave has been reversed And more important, it is a significantly higher percentage than was the case just a few years ago, because the incidence of democratic reversals has been rising the number of transitions away from democracy is beginning to exceed the number toward democracy. recent breakdowns have occurred in large and strategically important states such as the oil exporters Nigeria, Russia, and Venezuela

Empirically Denied – transitions of strategically important states disproves transition violence

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2013

The trading relationship between Mexico and the United States is an important one. More than 70% of Mexico's exports go to the United States; likewise, Mexico is still the second-largest market for U.S. exports (after Canada). Mexico has taken advantage of its relatively inexpensive labor to attract U.S. manufacturing firms and expand its exports. Mexico imports automobile parts from the United States, for example, and then exports completed automobiles. Assembly line factories, known as maquiladoras, have attracted much attention, but with the growth of China and competition from its even less expensive labor, this sector has actually declined. In addition, the United States is Mexico's main trading partner for agricultural products. Thus, the two countries share important trade flows across a wide variety of sectors.

Bahmani-Oskooee 9 (Mohsen, Wilmeth Professor and UWM Distinguished Professor Chair, Department of Economics @ University of Wisconsin, Scott W. Hegerty, Economics professor @ Northeastern Illinois University, “The Effects of Exchange-Rate Volatility on Commodity Trade between the United States and Mexico,” Southern Economic Journal, 2009, http://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/27751431.pdf)

The trading relationship between Mexico and the U S is an important one. More than 70% of Mexico's exports go to the U S Mexico is still the second-largest market for U.S. exports Mexico has taken advantage of its relatively inexpensive labor to attract U.S. manufacturing firms and expand its exports maquiladoras, have attracted much attention , the United States is Mexico's main trading partner for agricultural products the two countries share important trade flows across a wide variety of sectors.

Mexican collapse kills the US economy – statistics, agriculture, manufacturing

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2013

There is concern among public health professionals that the current economic downturn, initiated by the financial crisis that started in 2007, could precipitate the transmission of infectious diseases while also limiting capacity for control. Although studies have reviewed the potential effects of economic downturns on overall health, to our knowledge such an analysis has yet to be done focusing on infectious diseases. We performed a systematic literature review of studies examining changes in infectious disease burden subsequent to periods of crisis. The review identified 230 studies of which 37 met our inclusion criteria. Of these, 30 found evidence of worse infectious disease outcomes during recession, often resulting from higher rates of infectious contact under poorer living circumstances, worsened access to therapy, or poorer retention in treatment. The remaining studies found either reductions in infectious disease or no significant effect. Using the paradigm of the “SIR” (susceptible-infected-recovered) model of infectious disease transmission, we examined the implications of these findings for infectious disease transmission and control. Key susceptible groups include infants and the elderly. We identified certain high-risk groups, including migrants, homeless persons, and prison populations, as particularly vulnerable conduits of epidemics during situations of economic duress. We also observed that the long-term impacts of crises on infectious disease are not inevitable: considerable evidence suggests that the magnitude of effect depends critically on budgetary responses by governments. Like other emergencies and natural disasters, preparedness for financial crises should include consideration of consequences for communicable disease control.

Suhrcke 11 (Marc Suhrcke, Norwich School of Medicine@ University of East Anglia, David Stuckler, Harvard School of Public Health, Jonathan E. Suk, Future Threats and Determinants Section, Scientific Advice Unit, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Monica Desai, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Michaela Senek, Norwich School of Medicine@ University of East Anglia , Martin McKee, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Svetla Tsolova, Future Threats and Determinants Section, Scientific Advice Unit, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Sanjay Basu, Department of Medicine @ University of California San Francisco, Ibrahim Abubakar, Norwich School of Medicine @ University of East Anglia, Paul Hunter, Norwich School of Medicine@ University of East Anglia, Boika Rechel, Norwich School of Medicine@ University of East Anglia, Jan C. Semenza, Future Threats and Determinants Section, Scientific Advice Unit, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, “The Impact of Economic Crises on Communicable Disease Transmission and Control: A Systematic Review of the Evidence,” June 10, 2011, http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0020724)

There is concern that economic downturn could precipitate the transmission of infectious diseases while also limiting capacity for control analysis has yet to be done focusing on infectious diseases 230 studies of which 37 met our inclusion criteria 30 found evidence of worse infectious disease outcomes during recession, often resulting from higher rates of infectious contact under poorer living circumstances, worsened access to therapy, or poorer retention in treatment We also observed that the long-term impacts of crises on infectious disease are not inevitable: considerable evidence suggests that the magnitude of effect depends critically on budgetary responses by governments. Like other emergencies and natural disasters, preparedness for financial crises should include consideration of consequences for communicable disease control.

Economic decline increases infectious disease spread – government prevention cuts, living conditions, and treatment cuts

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Similarly, significant reductions in public sector healthcare provision, especially among low-income groups, during Mexico's financial crisis in 1994–1995 corresponded to a rise in infectious disease mortality rates by 6% [60]. During the South Asian economic crisis of the mid-1990s, there were recessions in both Thailand and Malaysia. However, while the Thai government opted for significant cuts in health expenditure, the Malaysian government increased expenditure on primary care. The Thai government's decision to disinvest in health promotion and HIV/AIDS control was associated with a rise in incidence of AIDS by 2% as well as rises in incidence of STDs and malaria, and a decline in the numbers of immunised children [61]. No such rises were observed in Malaysia at the time, even though numbers of immunized children also decreased.

Suhrcke 11 (Marc Suhrcke, Norwich School of Medicine@ University of East Anglia, David Stuckler, Harvard School of Public Health, Jonathan E. Suk, Future Threats and Determinants Section, Scientific Advice Unit, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Monica Desai, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Michaela Senek, Norwich School of Medicine@ University of East Anglia , Martin McKee, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Svetla Tsolova, Future Threats and Determinants Section, Scientific Advice Unit, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Sanjay Basu, Department of Medicine @ University of California San Francisco, Ibrahim Abubakar, Norwich School of Medicine @ University of East Anglia, Paul Hunter, Norwich School of Medicine@ University of East Anglia, Boika Rechel, Norwich School of Medicine@ University of East Anglia, Jan C. Semenza, Future Threats and Determinants Section, Scientific Advice Unit, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, “The Impact of Economic Crises on Communicable Disease Transmission and Control: A Systematic Review of the Evidence,” June 10, 2011, http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0020724)

significant reductions in public sector healthcare provision , during Mexico's financial crisis corresponded to a rise in infectious disease mortality rates During the crisis there were recessions the government opted for significant cuts in health expenditure The government's decision to disinvest in health promotion and HIV/AIDS control was associated with a rise in incidence and a decline in the numbers of immunised children

Empirics Prove the internal link– Mexican collapse results in critical healthcare cuts

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2013

On the demand side, several factors can lead to reductions in healthcare access by citizenries under financial strain. Public spending on health is vulnerable during an economic downturn; in the USA between 1980 and 1982, reductions in spending were associated with raised incidence of syphilis, tuberculosis, and genitourinary infections as well as diminished immunisation rates among children [62]. Reports further suggest that due to the economic crisis, the poor, especially in countries with high degrees of out-of-pocket spending, are unable to effectively utilize healthcare services and prescribed treatments due to inability to afford co-payments to visit or stay in a health facility or buy prescription drugs [8]. A study of the financial crisis in Peru during the late 1980s reported a 2.5% increase in mortality among children born during this period, attributed to reduced access to health care [63].

Suhrcke 11 (Marc Suhrcke, Norwich School of Medicine@ University of East Anglia, David Stuckler, Harvard School of Public Health, Jonathan E. Suk, Future Threats and Determinants Section, Scientific Advice Unit, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Monica Desai, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Michaela Senek, Norwich School of Medicine@ University of East Anglia , Martin McKee, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Svetla Tsolova, Future Threats and Determinants Section, Scientific Advice Unit, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Sanjay Basu, Department of Medicine @ University of California San Francisco, Ibrahim Abubakar, Norwich School of Medicine @ University of East Anglia, Paul Hunter, Norwich School of Medicine@ University of East Anglia, Boika Rechel, Norwich School of Medicine@ University of East Anglia, Jan C. Semenza, Future Threats and Determinants Section, Scientific Advice Unit, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, “The Impact of Economic Crises on Communicable Disease Transmission and Control: A Systematic Review of the Evidence,” June 10, 2011, http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0020724)

several factors can lead to reductions in healthcare access by citizenries under financial strain. Public spending on health is vulnerable during an economic downturn reductions in spending were associated with raised incidence of syphilis, tuberculosis, and genitourinary infections diminished immunisation due to the economic crisis, the poor in countries with high degrees of out-of-pocket spending, are unable to effectively utilize healthcare services and afford prescription drugs

Economic Decline increases disease spread – reductions of public health and out of pocket spending

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Northwestern (NHSI)

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2013

This study uses aggregate data for 23 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries over the 1960–1997 period to examine the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and deaths. The main finding is that total mortality and deaths from several common causes rise when labor markets strengthen. For instance, controlling for year effects, location fixed-effects (FE), country-specific time trends and demographic characteristics, a 1% point decrease in the national unemployment rate is associated with growth of 0.4% in total mortality and the following increases in cause-specific mortality: 0.4% for cardiovascular disease, 1.1% for influenza/pneumonia, 1.8% for liver disease, 2.1% for motor vehicle deaths, and 0.8% for other accidents. These effects are particularly pronounced for countries with weak social insurance systems, as proxied by public social expenditure as a share of GDP. The findings are consistent with evidence provided by other recent research and cast doubt on the hypothesis that economic downturns have negative effects on physical health.

Ruhm 6 (Christopher J, University of North Carolina at Greensboro and National Bureau of Economic Research, Ulf-G. Gerdtham, Health Economics Program, Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund University, Malmö University Hospital, “Deaths rise in good economic times: Evidence from the OECD,” Economics & Human Biology Volume 4, Issue 3, December 2006, Pages 298–316)

This study uses aggregate data over the 1960–1997 period to examine the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and deaths. total mortality and deaths from several common causes rise when labor markets strengthen a 1% point decrease in the national unemployment rate is associated with growth of 0.4% in total mortality : 0.4% for cardiovascular disease, 1.1% for influenza/pneumonia, 1.8% for liver disease, 2.1% for motor vehicle deaths, and 0.8% for other accidents. These effects are particularly pronounced for countries with weak social insurance systems findings cast doubt on the hypothesis that economic downturns have negative effects on physical health

Economic Growth Increases Disease – Statistics Prove

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Northwestern (NHSI)

Affirmatives

2013

Even if Mexico does not descend into complete chaos, the security situation there is troubling enough to require substantially increased attention from US officials. And American leaders already have a full plate dealing with strategic priorities in both the Muslim world and East Asia. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, concerns about Pakistan’s stability, the worrisome al Qaeda presence in such places as Yemen and Somalia, and the nuclear proliferation crises involving Iran and North Korea are ample testimony to America’s position as the overloaded superpower. Something has to give, especially if Washington no longer enjoys the luxury of stable neighbors on both of its land borders. And given the deteriorating security environment in Mexico, that factor clearly does not exist any more on the southern frontier. The most likely scenario is that US leaders will decrease their attention to the region that appears to have few, if any, significant security problems. Europe fits that description more than any other portion of the world in which the United States has meaningful interests. That does not mean that Washington will ignore Europe in the future, but it does mean that the continent will no longer be America’s top priority. The need to address the troubles in Mexico is not the only reason for that probable shift, but it is certainly a major factor.

Carpenter 11 (Ted Galen, senior fellow for defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, “Troubled Neighbor: Washington’s Emerging Security Problem in Mexico,” July 14, 2011, http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/troubled-neighbor-washingtons-emerging-security-problem-mexico?print)

, the security situation there is troubling enough to require substantially increased attention from US officials American leaders already have a full plate dealing with strategic priorities in both the Muslim world and East Asia Iraq and Afghanistan Pakistan’s stability al Qaeda presence , and the nuclear proliferation crises involving Iran and North Korea are testimony to America’s position as the overloaded superpower Something has to give if Washington no longer enjoys the luxury of stable neighbors on both of its land borders given the deteriorating security environment in Mexico, that factor clearly does not exist any more

Mexican Instability diverts focus from other Key conflicts – <<<Afghanistan, Pakistan, terrorism, Iran Prolif, North Korea>>>

Mexico Currency Affirmative Supplement - Northwestern 2013 6WeekSeniors.html5

Northwestern (NHSI)

Affirmatives

2013

The main thrust of the violence occurring in the state of Mexico is focused on the vast northern border. “The most violent conflict [between competing drug trafficking organizations] is concentrated in, but not limited to, the Juarez Plaza.”56 This area could possibly become increasingly volatile if the state is unable to provide adequate security for the people of Mexico. The members of the various drug trafficking organizations could use these areas to promote their illicit activities and violate the sovereignty of the United States. Moreover, these areas could be used by foreign terrorist organizations in conjunction with the DTOs. This would provide an additional security threat to the people of the United States as individuals linked to terrorist organizations could smuggle people and weapons across the border easily. This issue has the attention of the United States‟ top military leadership. According to Brigadier General Benjamin R. Mixon‟s testimony before Congress on 21 April 2004, “We at U.S. Southern Command view drugs and its movement into the United States as a weapon of mass destruction, and we treat it accordingly.”57 This strong language directed towards the various drug trafficking organizations highlights the importance of targeting the assorted DTOs as well as any foreign terrorist organizations who wish to use corridors within Mexico in order to infiltrate into the United States. The topic of foreign terrorist organizations and their ability to use Mexico will be explored more thoroughly later in this thesis. Another topic of concern is the drug trafficking organization‟s influences that are already in place throughout the United States.

Pease 11 (Shadd A Pease, Master of Arts in International Security from University of Denver Josef Korbel School of International Studies, concentration on the areas of military analysis and intelligence, June 2011, “Instability in the South: The Implications of Mexican State Failure on U.S. National Security”)

the northern border could become increasingly volatile if the state is unable to provide adequate security for the people of Mexico. members of the various drug trafficking organizations could use these areas to promote their illicit activities and violate the sovereignty of the United States. areas could be used by foreign terrorist organizations in conjunction with the DTOs This would provide an additional security threat as individuals linked to terrorist organizations could smuggle weapons across the border This issue has the attention of the United States‟ top military leadership. According to General Mixon We at U.S. Southern Command view drugs and its movement into the United States as a weapon of mass destruction, and we treat it accordingly This strong language directed towards the various drug trafficking organizations highlights the importance of targeting the assorted DTOs as well as any foreign terrorist organizations

Instability leads to WMD terrorism – DTO border smuggling

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Northwestern (NHSI)

Affirmatives

2013

The declining capability of the Mexican security apparatus to thoroughly secure and protect the sovereignty of Mexico may encourage members of foreign terrorist organizations to infiltrate and conduct operations on Mexican soil with the purpose of entering the United States. This creation of safe havens or headquarters, along with the operations of the various drug trafficking organizations, is the highest threat to the security of the United States if Mexico is no longer able to effectively secure its territory. The United States is currently conducting military operations in multiple areas of the world. Additionally, the U.S. devotes huge sums of money to foreign states such as Pakistan and Afghanistan in order to bolster their security and prevent terrorist organizations from establishing protected bases of operation. Although stabilizing the Mideast region by combating terrorist organizations is important for the United States, it is also important that United States foreign policymakers understand that a real threat exists with our neighbor to the south, and the ability of foreign terrorist organizations to possibly exploit a declining Mexican security apparatus.

Pease 11 (Shadd A Pease, Master of Arts in International Security from University of Denver Josef Korbel School of International Studies, concentration on the areas of military analysis and intelligence, June 2011, “Instability in the South: The Implications of Mexican State Failure on U.S. National Security”)

The declining capability of the Mexican security apparatus may encourage members of foreign terrorist organizations to infiltrate and conduct operations on Mexican soil with the purpose of entering the United States creation of safe havens or headquarters is the highest threat to the security of the United States if Mexico is no longer able to effectively secure its territory , it is important that U S policymakers understand that a real threat exists with our neighbor to the south, and the ability of foreign terrorist organizations to possibly exploit a declining Mexican security apparatus.

Mexican instability causes terrorism – safe havens

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Northwestern (NHSI)

Affirmatives

2013

The possibility of foreign terrorist organizations using Mexico as a base of operations for future attacks on the United States would have major implication on U.S. national security. Foreign terrorist organizations, most likely linked to Al-Qaeda, would have greater freedom of movement in Mexico due to the lack of security in that country. Organizations such as Al-Qaeda seem to move from country to country preying on weak and chaotic states. The government of Mexico would be unable to sufficiently hamper the activities of terrorist organizations due to a failed state scenario. The Mexican military and police forces would have limited leadership from the federal government which is needed in order to confront terrorist organizations. The lack of security within the border of Mexico would provide terrorist organizations with the needed cover to plan, train, and conduct terrorist activities. This insecurity in Mexico is in stark contrast when compared to the United States neighbor to the north, Canada.

Pease 11 (Shadd A Pease, Master of Arts in International Security from University of Denver Josef Korbel School of International Studies, concentration on the areas of military analysis and intelligence, June 2011, “Instability in the South: The Implications of Mexican State Failure on U.S. National Security”)

The possibility of foreign terrorist organizations using Mexico as a base of operations for future attacks on the United States would have major implication on U.S. national security. Foreign terrorist organizations likely linked to Al-Qaeda, would have greater freedom of movement in Mexico due to the lack of security Organizations move from country to country preying on weak and chaotic states. The government of Mexico would be unable to sufficiently hamper the activities of terrorist organizations due to a failed state scenario military and police forces would have limited leadership from the federal government which is needed in order to confront organizations. The lack of security within the border of Mexico would provide terrorist organizations with the needed cover to plan, train, and conduct terrorist activities.

Mexican collapse casues terrorism – opens up a base of future operations

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Northwestern (NHSI)

Affirmatives

2013

An additional threat to the American homeland from terrorist organizations is attacks using radioactive material, more specifically, radiological dispersal devices also known as “dirty bombs.‟ Terrorist organizations could smuggle rather easily radioactive material from a lawless Mexico into the United States for potential attacks. Radiological dispersal devices are used to disperse radioactive material into the environment by using some type of explosive device.105 The amount of material used in the bomb will determine how many casualties are affected as well as the area of contamination.106 The material used in these bombs can cause tissue damage, radiation poisoning, and cause mass panic within those who were targeted for this attack.107 Terrorist organizations would have the opportunity to use Mexico as a base for their operations; these operations may include smuggling personnel into the United States or smuggling WMD type weapons.

Pease 11 (Shadd A Pease, Master of Arts in International Security from University of Denver Josef Korbel School of International Studies, concentration on the areas of military analysis and intelligence, June 2011, “Instability in the South: The Implications of Mexican State Failure on U.S. National Security”)

An additional threat to the American homeland from terrorist organizations is attacks using radioactive material, more specifically, radiological dispersal devices also known as “dirty bombs.‟ Terrorist organizations could smuggle rather easily radioactive material from a lawless Mexico into the United States for potential attacks. Radiological dispersal devices are used to disperse radioactive material into the environment by using some type of explosive device these bombs can cause tissue damage, radiation poisoning, and cause mass panic

Terrorists could smuggle WMD weapons

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Northwestern (NHSI)

Affirmatives

2013

There is one dynamic in the literature of weak and failing states that has received relatively little attention, namely the phenomenon of “rapid collapse.” For the most part, weak and failing states represent chronic, long-term problems that allow for management over sustained periods. The collapse of a state usually comes as a surprise, has a rapid onset, and poses acute problems. The collapse of Yugoslavia into a chaotic tangle of warring nationalities in 1990 suggests how suddenly and catastrophically state collapse can happen - in this case, a state which had hosted the 1984 Winter Olympics at Sarajevo, and which then quickly became the epicenter of the ensuing civil war. In terms of worst-case scenarios for the Joint Force and indeed the world, two large and important states bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse: Pakistan and Mexico. Some forms of collapse in Pakistan would carry with it the likelihood of a sustained violent and bloody civil and sectarian war, an even bigger haven for violent extremists, and the question of what would happen to its nuclear weapons. That “perfect storm” of uncertainty alone might require the engagement of U.S. and coalition forces into a situation of immense complexity and danger with no guarantee they could gain control of the weapons and with the real possibility that a nuclear weapon might be used. The Mexican possibility may seem less likely, but the government, its politicians, police, and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and pressure by criminal gangs and drug cartels. How that internal conflict turns out over the next several years will have a major impact on the stability of the Mexican state. Any descent by the Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland security alone. Yes, the “rapid collapse” of Mexico would change everything with respect to the global security environment. Such a collapse would have enormous humanitarian, constitutional, economic, cultural, and security implications for the U.S. It would seem the U.S. federal government, indeed American society at large, would have little ability to focus serious attention on much else in the world. The hypothetical collapse of Pakistan is a scenario that has already been well discussed. In the worst case, the U.S. would be able to isolate itself from most effects emanating from south Asia. However, there would be no running from a Mexican collapse.

Haddick 8 (Robert, Managing Editor, Small Wars Journal, former U.S. Marine Corps officer, advisor for the State Department and the National Intelligence Council on irregular warfare issues, former Director of Research at the Fremont Group, http://westhawk.blogspot.com/2008/12/now-that-would-change-everything.html, MH)

weak and failing states represent chronic, long-term problems two large and important states bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse: Pakistan and Mexico. he Mexican possibility may seem less likely, but the government, its politicians, police, and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and pressure by criminal gangs and drug cartels. How that internal conflict turns out over the next several years will have a major impact on the stability of the Mexican state Any descent by the Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland security alone. Such a collapse would have enormous humanitarian, constitutional, economic, cultural, and security implications for the U.S. It would seem the U.S. federal government, indeed American society at large, would have little ability to focus serious attention on much else in the world the U.S. would be able to isolate itself from most effects emanating from south Asia. However, there would be no running from a Mexican collapse.

Mexican collapse causes U.S. isolationism

Mexico Currency Affirmative Supplement - Northwestern 2013 6WeekSeniors.html5

Northwestern (NHSI)

Affirmatives

2013

The first two issues that this chapter dealt with, continued operations by Mexican drug trafficking organizations and stronger ties between the DTOs and American street gangs, are issues that may occur regardless of the security situation in Mexico. The Mexican government has little control over the operations that the various drug trafficking organizations conduct in the United States, or control over the American street gangs that act as their proxies. However, the next six topics that this thesis will investigate are issues that are directly tied to a failed state in Mexico. The following problems are possible due to a limited and constrained Mexican government that no longer has the capacity to combat, in a serious manner, the groups that have deteriorated that state’s security situation. The following topic, regional instability, is a broad overview of how a Mexican failed state scenario would destabilize the region as a whole and in effect reduce the national security of the United States. The following five implications in this thesis will address more specifically the destabilizing factors of the deteriorating situation in Mexico. A possible failed state in the country of Mexico would accelerate instability in the surrounding region. The countries that surround the state of Mexico would be affected by a sharp decrease in stability and security within the Mexican state. Mexican citizens will begin to move to other areas of their own country, as well as, other states in order to escape violence and disorder in their own towns and villages. Mexican internally displaced persons already exist primarily as the result of fighting in the state of Chiapas located in the extreme south of the country; however, movement resulting from land disputes, narcotics trafficking and religious intolerance has led to involuntary movement.84 According to the Geneva-based Internal Displacement Monitoring Center (IDMC) an estimated “115, 000 people have been forcibly displaced by Mexico‟s drug violence…”85 Additional movements will inevitably cause instability both economic and security related not only to the United States, but to other Latin American states. This problem is elevated as the South American region is already ranked the “third most unstable region in the world in the post-war era.

Pease 11 (Shadd A Pease, Master of Arts in International Security from University of Denver Josef Korbel School of International Studies, concentration on the areas of military analysis and intelligence, June 2011, “Instability in the South: The Implications of Mexican State Failure on U.S. National Security”)

problems are possible due to a limited and constrained Mexican government that no longer has the capacity to combat, in a serious manner, the groups that have deteriorated that state’s security situation regional instability, is a broad overview of how a Mexican failed state scenario would destabilize the region as a whole and in effect reduce the national security of the United States. A failed state would accelerate instability in the surrounding region. The countries that surround the state of Mexico would be affected by a sharp decrease in stability and security within the Mexican state. Mexican citizens will begin to move to other areas movement resulting from land disputes, narcotics trafficking and religious intolerance has led to involuntary movement 85 Additional movements will inevitably cause instability both economic and security related not only to the United States, but to other Latin American states. This problem is elevated as the South American region is already ranked the “third most unstable region in the world in the post-war era.

Mexican instability spills over – migration

Mexico Currency Affirmative Supplement - Northwestern 2013 6WeekSeniors.html5

Northwestern (NHSI)

Affirmatives

2013

The ability of foreign states to conduct operations inside the country of Mexico may be a concern if the Mexican government is no longer able to secure and promote stability throughout the Mexican state. Foreign states such as Iran and China have recently put more emphasis into the Latin American region. These states, particularly Iran, are unfriendly to the United States. Consequently, Iran has begun to deepen its ties to countries in Latin America; this deepening in relationship is to a certain extent based on shared aggression towards the United States. Although the government of Iran seeks to enjoy regional hegemony in the Middle East, there is the possibility of members of the Iranian government actively seeking influence in a Mexican state that is unable to secure its borders or effectively govern the entire country. This type of action by Iran would elevate its authority in the Latin American region therefore providing better leverage between itself and the United States: this deed would be particularly important due to the ongoing nuclear talks that are extremely contentious between Iran and many Western states. This thesis will explore the possibility of foreign states such as Iran, China, and Russia actively exploiting the situation in Mexico in order to gain greater influence in the Latin American region in the subsequent sections.

Pease 11 (Shadd A Pease, Master of Arts in International Security from University of Denver Josef Korbel School of International Studies, concentration on the areas of military analysis and intelligence, June 2011, “Instability in the South: The Implications of Mexican State Failure on U.S. National Security”)

The ability of foreign states to conduct operations inside the country of Mexico may be a concern if the Mexican government is no longer able to promote stability Foreign states such as Iran and China have recently put more emphasis into the Latin American region. Iran, are unfriendly , Iran has begun to deepen its ties to countries in Latin America; this deepening in relationship is to a certain extent based on shared aggression there is the possibility of members of the Iranian government actively seeking influence in a Mexican state that is unable to secure its borders or effectively govern the entire country. This type of action by Iran would elevate its authority in the Latin American region therefore providing better leverage between itself and the United States: this deed would be particularly important due to the ongoing nuclear talks that are extremely contentious between Iran and many Western states

Mexican Collapse Gives Iran leverage in nuclear talks

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Northwestern (NHSI)

Affirmatives

2013

The experts who study this depressing issue seem to agree that a Middle East in which Iran has four or five nuclear weapons would be dangerously unstable and prone to warp-speed escalation.¶ Here’s one possible scenario for the not-so-distant future: Hezbollah, Iran’s Lebanese proxy, launches a cross-border attack into Israel, or kills a sizable number of Israeli civilians with conventional rockets. Israel responds by invading southern Lebanon, and promises, as it has in the past, to destroy Hezbollah. Iran, coming to the defense of its proxy, warns Israel to cease hostilities, and leaves open the question of what it will do if Israel refuses to heed its demand.¶ Dennis Ross, who until recently served as President Barack Obama’s Iran point man on the National Security Council, notes Hezbollah’s political importance to Tehran. “The only place to which the Iranian government successfully exported the revolution is to Hezbollah in Lebanon,” Ross told me. “If it looks as if the Israelis are going to destroy Hezbollah, you can see Iran threatening Israel, and they begin to change the readiness of their forces. This could set in motion a chain of events that would be like ‘Guns of August’ on steroids.”¶ Imagine that Israel detects a mobilization of Iran’s rocket force or the sudden movement of mobile missile launchers. Does Israel assume the Iranians are bluffing, or that they are not? And would Israel have time to figure this out? Or imagine the opposite: Might Iran, which will have no second-strike capability for many years -- that is, no reserve of nuclear weapons to respond with in an exchange -- feel compelled to attack Israel first, knowing that it has no second chance?¶ Bruce Blair, the co-founder of the nuclear disarmament group Global Zero and an expert on nuclear strategy, told me that in a sudden crisis Iran and Israel might each abandon traditional peacetime safeguards, making an accidental exchange more likely.¶ “A confrontation that brings the two nuclear-armed states to a boiling point would likely lead them to raise the launch- readiness of their forces -- mating warheads to delivery vehicles and preparing to fire on short notice,” he said. “Missiles put on hair-trigger alert also obviously increase the danger of their launch and release on false warning of attack -- false indications that the other side has initiated an attack.”¶ Then comes the problem of misinterpreted data, Blair said. “Intelligence failures in the midst of a nuclear crisis could readily lead to a false impression that the other side has decided to attack, and induce the other side to launch a preemptive strike.”¶ ‘Cognitive Bias’¶ Blair notes that in a crisis it isn’t irrational to expect an attack, and this expectation makes it more likely that a leader will read the worst into incomplete intelligence. “This predisposition is a cognitive bias that increases the danger that one side will jump the gun on the basis of incorrect information,” he said.¶ Ross told me that Iran’s relative proximity to Israel and the total absence of ties between the two countries -- the thought of Iran agreeing to maintain a hot line with a country whose existence it doesn’t recognize is far-fetched -- make the situation even more hazardous. “This is not the Cold War,” he said. “In this situation we don’t have any communications channels. Iran and Israel have zero communications. And even in the Cold War we nearly had a nuclear war. We were much closer than we realized.”¶ The answer to this predicament is to deny Iran nuclear weapons, but not through an attack on its nuclear facilities, at least not now. “The liabilities of preemptive attack on Iran’s nuclear program vastly outweigh the benefits,” Blair said. “But certainly Iran’s program must be stopped before it reaches fruition with a nuclear weapons delivery capability.”

Jeffrey Goldberg 12, Bloomberg View columnist and a national correspondent for the Atlantic, January 23, 2012, “How Iran Could Trigger Accidental Armageddon,” online: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-24/how-iran-may-trigger-accidental-armageddon-commentary-by-jeffrey-goldberg.html

experts agree a Middle East in which Iran has nuclear weapons would be dangerously unstable and prone to warp-speed escalation Blair an expert on nuclear strategy, told me in a sudden crisis Iran and Israel might abandon traditional peacetime safeguards making an accidental exchange more likely A confrontation would lead them to raise the launch- readiness of their forces Missiles on hair-trigger alert increase the danger of launch on false warning Then comes the problem of misinterpreted data in a crisis it isn’t irrational to expect an attack, this makes it more likely a leader will read the worst This is a cognitive bias that increases the danger one side will jump the gun Iran’s proximity to Israel and the total absence of ties make the situation even more hazardous. we don’t have any communications channels The answer is to deny Iran nuclear weapons not through an attack

Iran prolif causes nuclear war

Mexico Currency Affirmative Supplement - Northwestern 2013 6WeekSeniors.html5

Northwestern (NHSI)

Affirmatives

2013

Chinese economic incentives to Mexico would hinder American influence in the region. The failing and desperate Mexican government may extend a warm welcome to the Chinese; this act could provide China with greater influence as they would potentially provide economic aid packages to Mexico, and would presumably expect some type of mutual reciprocity from the Mexican government. Additionally, China may attempt to further expand their influence in Latin American states other than Mexico which would advance the prestige of many anti-American leaders. Two such leaders are Evo Morales in Bolivia and Hugo Chavez in Venezuela. The Bolivarian leader as well as Venezuela‟s President could claim to have attained a strong pact with an emerging economic and military power in order to advance their agendas, agendas that do not coincide with that of the United States. Furthermore, Chinese expansionism in Mexico may provide leverage for the Chinese positions on issues such as N. Korea and Taiwan as greater influence in the Western Hemisphere would provide China with greater power in these cases. This would undoubtedly place the United States at a disadvantage if China garnered greater authority with the Mexican state.

Pease 11 (Shadd A Pease, Master of Arts in International Security from University of Denver Josef Korbel School of International Studies, concentration on the areas of military analysis and intelligence, June 2011, “Instability in the South: The Implications of Mexican State Failure on U.S. National Security”)

Chinese economic incentives to Mexico would hinder American influence in the region. The failing and desperate Mexican government may extend a warm welcome to the Chinese this act could provide China with greater influence as they would potentially provide economic aid packages to Mexico China may attempt to further expand their influence in Latin American states other than Mexico which would advance the prestige of many anti-American leaders. Bolivia and Venezuela. The Bolivarian leader as well as Venezuela‟s President could claim to have attained a strong pact with an emerging economic and military power in order to advance their agendas, agendas that do not coincide with that of the United States Chinese expansionism in Mexico may provide leverage for the Chinese positions on issues such as N. Korea and Taiwan as greater influence in the Western Hemisphere would provide China with greater power

American influence key to prevent Chinese influence – that gives power to anti-American leaders and gives China leverage in the Taiwan and North Korea issues

Mexico Currency Affirmative Supplement - Northwestern 2013 6WeekSeniors.html5

Northwestern (NHSI)

Affirmatives

2013

Taiwan – domestic, or foreign policy?¶ China’s goals in the region amount to more than the capture of natural resources. Although the People’s Republic of China considers resolution of the Taiwan issue to be a domestic issue, it is with some irony that one of China’s main foreign policy goals is to isolate Taipei internationally. The PRC and the ROC compete directly for international recognition among all the states in the world. . Nowhere is this more evident than in Latin America, where 12 of the 23 nations that still have official diplomatic relations with the ROC reside.¶ The historical background¶ Following the mainland Communist victory in the Chinese Civil War in 1949, the nationalist Kuomintang retreated to the island of Formosa (Taiwan) where it continued to claim to be the legitimate government of all of China. In June 1950 the United States intervened by placing its 7th fleet in the Taiwan straits to stop a conclusive military resolution to the civil war and slowly the battlefield became primarily political, concerned with legitimacy.¶ When the United Nations was formed in 1945, the Republic of China (ROC) became one of the five permanent members of the Security Council. This gave the ROC a de facto advantage over the PRC in attaining recognition from other nation states; particularly as the diplomatic clout of the hegemonic United States supported its position as the true representative of the Chinese people, until the rapprochement of the 1970s, when the Nixon administration wished to improve ties with the de facto rulers of China in order to exploit the Sino-Soviet split. UN Resolution 2758 granted the ’China seat’ to the PRC at the expense of the ROC who were in effect exiled from the organization, and the famous 1972 visit of President Nixon to China further added legitimacy to the communist regime. All this resulted in a thawing of world opinion, and gradually as the durability and permanence of the PRC regime became ingrained, countries began switching their diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing.¶ The economics of international recognition¶ In the Americas, the PRC had international recognition and longstanding support from ideological allies such as Cuba. However, the ROC has maintained more diplomatic support in the Americas than any other region, mainly due to the small nature of the states involved and the importance of Taiwanese aid to their economies. Li notes that “from the late 1980s to the early 1990s, roughly 10 percent of Taiwan’s direct foreign investment (FDI) went to Latin America and the Caribbean,” [51] highlighting the concerted effort made in the region. Economic solidarity is increasingly important to the formation of the Taiwan-Latin America relationship, for two reasons. The first is that for Latin American states, the decision of which China to support is less ideological and political than it ever has been; which makes the decision a straight up economic zero-sum choice. The second is that Latin America is home to natural resources which are of great significance to the hungry growing economies of the PRC and the ROC regardless of international recognition.¶ However, while the decision is not political for Latin American countries, for Taiwan, every country which switches its recognition to the PRC damages its legitimacy as a nation state in the international arena. The Table below shows the designation of diplomatic recognition in the region in 2008.¶ Countries Recognising the PRC (China)Countries Recognising the ROC (Taiwan)Central AmericaMexico, Costa RicaEl Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, PanamaCaribbeanAntigua & Barbuda, Bahamas, Barbados, Cuba, Dominica, Grenada, Guyana, Jamaica, Suriname, Trinidad & TobagoBelize, Dominican Republic, Haiti, St Kitts & Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent & the GrenadinesSouth AmericaArgentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Uruguay, VenezuelaParaguay¶ On the other hand, for the PRC, every state which withdraws its support for the ROC takes it one step closer to being in a position where it can resolve the ‘Taiwan issue’ unilaterally. Subsequently, undermining Taiwan is of the utmost importance to China, and it has taken to ‘outbidding’ Taiwan in offers of foreign aid, a strategy made possible by the decline in aid from the defunct Soviet Union, and the West, which is pre occupied with terrorism and the Middle East. Li notes that “the region’s leaders have turned to Asia for help to promote trade and financial assistance, and consequently played the PRC and Taiwan against each other.” [53] Despite its smaller size, Taiwan has fared remarkably well in this bidding war; focusing its aid investments on infrastructure such as stadiums in St Kitts & Nevis for the Cricket World Cup in 2007.¶ However, even Taiwan‘s economy can be put under strain by the seemingly relentless stream of foreign aid which has brought only debateable and mild gains to the Taiwanese cause. This has contributed to the PRC picking off the few remaining supporters of the ROC – take for example, the Dominican case.¶ In early 2004, Commonwealth of Dominica asked Taipei for a $58 million aid, which is unrelated to public welfare. The Caribbean nation had relied on Taiwan to develop its agriculture-based economy since 1983. Diplomatic relationship was soon broken after Taipei turned down the request. [54]¶ This incident showcased the fact that in economic terms, the PRC is winning the battle for Latin America.¶ Political strategies of the PRC¶ In political terms too; the PRC is in an advantageous position, thanks in part again to its position within the UN. While it can be argued that China “provides incentives but does not threaten harm to induce countries to defect from recognizing Taiwan,” [55] the reality is that the use of force and direct harm are not the only means available to an economic entity as powerful as China. It refuses to maintain official relations with any state that recognises the ROC; an action which can be quite prohibitive to the country being able to take advantage of the growing Chinese market. Although Domínguez suggests that the PRC “has not been punitive toward those states that still recognize the Republic of China (Taiwan),” [56] the legitimacy of this claim has to be brought into question – for example “in June 1996, China fought the extension of the UN mission in Haiti, to punish the Caribbean nation for its appeal for UN acceptance of Taiwan.” [57] This incident showed that China is prepared to use its global clout to play spoiler and apply indirect pressure on countries to adopt its position. Similarly, China’s experience with one-party rule has taught it the importance of party-to-party relations in addition to state-to-state relations, further cementing the PRC by establishing a relationship based on goodwill and common understanding. Indeed by the start of 1998 “the CCP had established relations with almost all major political parties in the countries that were Taiwan’s diplomatic allies in Latin America,” [58] further isolating the ROC.¶ The effect on American interests¶ Were the ROC to be deserted by its remaining allies in Latin America, the USA would be disadvantaged in attempting to maintain the status quo across the Taiwan Strait. A Taiwan that was not recognised by any state from the Americas, or Europe (with the exception of the Vatican) would not be seen as a genuine sovereign entity whose defence would be more important than the upkeep of good relations between China and the West. As China’s economic and political position in the world improves vis-à-vis both America and Taiwan, so might its ambitions. The U.S.A might find itself in a position where it could no longer withstand the diplomatic pressure to allow the PRC to conclude a settlement on Taiwan, perhaps by force.

Fergusson 12 Robbie, Researcher at Royal Society for the Arts, Featured Contributor at International Business Times, Former Conference & Research Assistant at Security Watch, Former Researcher at University College London, Master of Science, China in the International Arena, The University of Glasgow, “The Chinese Challenge to the Monroe Doctrine,” http://www.e-ir.info/2012/07/23/does-chinese-growth-in-latin-america-threaten-american-interests/

China’s goals in the region amount to more than the capture of natural resources. Although China considers resolution of the Taiwan issue to be a domestic issue, it is with some irony that one of China’s main foreign policy goals is to isolate Taipei internationally. The PRC and the ROC compete directly for international recognition Nowhere is this more evident than in Latin America, where 12 of the 23 nations that still have official diplomatic relations with the ROC reside.¶ the ROC has maintained more diplomatic support in the Americas than any other region, mainly due to the small nature of the states involved and the importance of Taiwanese aid to their economies. Economic solidarity is increasingly important to the formation of the Taiwan-Latin America relationship, for two reasons. The first is that for Latin American states, the decision of which China to support is less ideological and political which makes the decision a straight up economic zero-sum choice. The second is that Latin America is home to natural resources which are of great significance to the hungry growing economies of the PRC and the ROC for Taiwan, every country which switches its recognition to the PRC damages its legitimacy as a nation state in the international arena. for the PRC, every state which withdraws its support for the ROC takes it one step closer to being in a position where it can resolve the ‘Taiwan issue’ unilaterally. undermining Taiwan is of the utmost importance to China, and it has taken to ‘outbidding’ Taiwan in offers of foreign aid This has contributed to the PRC picking off the few remaining supporters of the ROC In political terms too; the PRC is in an advantageous position It refuses to maintain official relations with any state that recognises the ROC; an action which can be quite prohibitive to the country being able to take advantage of the growing Chinese market. Similarly, China’s experience with one-party rule has taught it the importance of party-to-party relations in addition to state-to-state relations, further cementing the PRC by establishing a relationship based on goodwill and common understanding. Were the ROC to be deserted by its remaining allies in Latin America, the USA would be disadvantaged in attempting to maintain the status quo across the Taiwan Strait. As China’s economic and political position in the world improves vis-à-vis both America and Taiwan, so might its ambitions. The U.S.A might find itself in a position where it could no longer withstand pressure to allow the PRC to conclude a settlement on Taiwan, perhaps by force.

Chinese influence in Latin America causes Taiwan war

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2013

The security situation in Mexico may hamper trade relations with the United States. This unfortunate realization may hinder both job creation in America as well as affect United States national security. Many Americans rely on the economic success of both the United States and Mexico, and their respective comparative advantages. The possibility of Mexico becoming a failed state may jeopardize countless jobs within the American homeland; this would be due to Mexico‟s inability to perform the necessary duties of a sovereign state and execute economic policy. This would affect trade between the United States and Mexico. As the author Peter Evans points out, “…the state lies at the center of solutions to the problem of order. Without the state, markets, the other master institution of modern society, cannot function.”111 America is a key destination for approximately 80% of Mexico‟s exports.112 Mexico also exports cars, and electronic equipment to the United States.113 In addition, the country of Mexico is a key exporter of petroleum to the United States; Mexico exports approximately 1.3 million barrels of oil a day to its northern neighbor.114 The oil imports that the United States receives from Mexico are significant. However, the government of Mexico would be unable to adequately secure the transfer of oil to the United States due to the decreased security in the country. The situation that may unfold in Mexico could reflect the same serious situation that Iraq faces with attacks on important pipelines which sabotages oil production; the various drug trafficking organizations as well as terrorist organizations would most likely be the culprits of such attacks. In addition, the money that the state of Mexico generates from oil exports is significant; these exports constitute the largest source of revenue for the country. Mexico nationalized its oil production in 1938 under the national oil company, Pemex.115 This fact has significant consequences as private oil companies would be unable to assist the government of Mexico in any meaningful way. Falling oil revenues, lack of security for various oil pipelines and a continuation of economic decline in Mexico will have repercussions in the United States. Therefore, it is important that American policy-makers understand that “Mexico‟s ongoing political stability and economic health are critical to the prosperity and national security of the United States.116

Pease 11 [June/2011, Shadd A. Pease is a master of arts in international security and a former intelligence analyst. “Instability in the South: The Implications of Mexican State Failure on US National Security.” Online]

Americans rely on the economic success of Mexico The possibility of Mexico becoming a failed state may jeopardize countless jobs within the American homeland; this would be due to Mexico‟s inability to perform the necessary duties of a sovereign state and execute economic policy Mexico exports approximately 1.3 million barrels of oil a day to its northern neighbor The oil imports that the United States receives from Mexico are significant. the government of Mexico would be unable to adequately secure the transfer of oil to the United States due to the decreased security in the country the various drug trafficking organizations as well as terrorist organizations would most likely be the culprits of such attacks private oil companies would be unable to assist the government of Mexico in any meaningful way. Falling oil revenues, lack of security for various oil pipelines and a continuation of economic decline in Mexico will have repercussions in the United States

Economic downturn and stability guts Mexican oil exports

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Beteta noted that China imports three-quarters of the oil it consumes. "China needs to guarantee oil for its citizens' cars, but also obviously for its economy as a whole, which has a high energy intensity, and Mexico is an oil power," he said. At the same time, Pena Nieto's government has said that it will soon present an energy reform bill to allow greater national and international investment in its oil sector. It hasn't revealed the details of the initiative, but Beteta said it "has awakened the appetite of many people." State oil company Petroleos Mexicanos, or Pemex, already has taken small steps to increase its relationship with China, which until recently had been minimal. Of the roughly 2.5 million barrels of crude that Pemex produces a day, about 1.2 million are exported. Energy ministry figures show that 75 percent of these exports go to the United States and about 7 percent to the "Far East." It does not specify how much each specific country in that region receives. In April, during Pena Nieto's visit to China, Pemex signed its first long-term contract with a Chinese company, agreeing to ship 30,000 barrels a day to the state oil company Sinopec.

Castillo 6/2 (E. Eduardo, staff writer for AP, “China drawn to Mexico's opening economy,” 2013, http://news.yahoo.com/china-drawn-mexicos-opening-economy-163251051.html)

China imports three-quarters of the oil it consumes. "China needs to guarantee oil for its economy as a whole, which has a high energy intensity, and Mexico is an oil power Nieto's government has said that it will soon present an energy reform bill to allow greater national and international investment in its oil sector it "has awakened the appetite of many people. Pemex, already has taken steps to increase its relationship with China during Pena Nieto's visit to China, Pemex signed its long-term contract with a Chinese company

Mexican Oil Decline Kills the Chinese Economy

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2013

Despite China's problems with its food supply, the Chinese do not appear to be in danger of widespread starvation. Nevertheless, one cannot rule out the prospect entirely, especially if the earth's climate actually is getting warmer. The consequences of general famine in a country with over a billion people clearly would be catastrophic. The effects of oil shortages and industrial stagnation would be less lurid, but economic collapse would endanger China's political stability whether that collapse came with a bang or a whimper. PRC society has become dangerously fractured. As the coastal cities grow richer and more cosmopolitan while the rural inland provinces grow poorer, the political interests of the two regions become ever less compatible. Increasing the prospects for division yet further, Deng Xiaoping's administrative reforms have strengthened regional potentates at the expense of central authority. As Kent Calder observes, In part, this change [erosion of power at the center] is a conscious devolution, initiated by Deng Xiaoping in 1991 to outflank conservative opponents of economic reforms in Beijing nomenclature. But devolution has fed on itself, spurred by the natural desire of local authorities in the affluent and increasingly powerful coastal provinces to appropriate more and more of the fruits of growth to themselves alone.[ 49] Other social and economic developments deepen the rifts in Chinese society. The one-child policy, for instance, is disrupting traditional family life, with unknowable consequences for Chinese mores and social cohesion.[ 50] As families resort to abortion or infanticide to ensure that their one child is a son, the population may come to include an unprecedented preponderance of young, single men. If common gender prejudices have any basis in fact, these males are unlikely to be a source of social stability. Under these circumstances, China is vulnerable to unrest of many kinds. Unemployment or severe hardship, not to mention actual starvation, could easily trigger popular uprisings. Provincial leaders might be tempted to secede, perhaps openly or perhaps by quietly ceasing to obey Beijing's directives. China's leaders, in turn, might adopt drastic measures to forestall such developments. If faced with internal strife, supporters of China's existing regime may return to a more overt form of communist dictatorship. The PRC has, after all, oscillated between experimentation and orthodoxy continually throughout its existence. Spectacular examples include Mao's Hundred Flowers campaign and the return to conventional Marxism-Leninism after the leftist experiments of the Cultural Revolution, but the process continued throughout the 1980s, when the Chinese referred to it as the "fang-shou cycle." (Fang means to loosen one's grip; shou means to tighten it.)[ 51] If order broke down, the Chinese would not be the only people to suffer. Civil unrest in the PRC would disrupt trade relationships, send refugees flowing across borders, and force outside powers to consider intervention. If different countries chose to intervene on different sides, China's struggle could lead to major war. In a less apocalyptic but still grim scenario, China's government might try to ward off its demise by attacking adjacent countries.

Kane and Serewicz 1 [Thomas. Security Studies from Hull. And Lawrence – Foreign Policy Analyst “China's Hunger: The Consequences of a Rising Demand for Food and Energy” Parameters, Fall 2001]

one cannot rule out the prospect entirely The consequences would be catastrophic economic collapse would endanger China's political stability China is vulnerable to unrest of many kinds actual starvation, could easily trigger popular uprisings. Provincial leaders might be tempted to secede, China's leaders might adopt drastic measures to forestall such developments Civil unrest in the PRC would disrupt trade relationships, send refugees flowing across borders, and force outside powers to consider intervention. If different countries chose to intervene on different sides, China's struggle could lead to major war. In a less apocalyptic but still grim scenario, China's government might try to ward off its demise by attacking adjacent countries.

Chinese economic instability results in an internal war that causes lash-out

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2013

In general terms, those organizations involved in the financial markets could indeed play an important role in sustainable development according to their strategic management. Specifically, the banking sector, an important player in the financial markets, has developed specific environmental strategies in order to confront contemporary challenges such environmental risks assessment and risk management strategies. The interface between banking, environmental strategies and sustainability is outlined in Fig. 8.1. Most banks perceive environmental issues not only as threats, but also as an opportunity to gain financial benefits or to foresee potential future financial risks that should be avoided. Taking this into account, banks’ environmental strategies could be classified in two general approaches: those aiming at developing new financial products, and those related to environmental management strategies for improving their environmental performance and reputation. According to the former approach, banks have designed new financial tools and loans to finance cleaner technology (Thompson, 1998). Such tools are often called ‘green’ lending, ‘green’ funds, ‘green’ bond and other ‘green’ financial products. The overall purpose of these strategies is that they support banks not only by gaining benefits or avoiding risks, but also by playing the role of motivator for firms and other organizations to implement environmental and corporate social strategies and to achieve the ultimate goal: sustainable development. Additionally, banks have been implementing different environmental strategies such as energy efficiency and waste management programs and Environmental Management Systems (i.e. ISO 14001 and EMAS). These strategies assist banks in gaining financial benefits such as energy cost reduction, minimization of water and material use (McCammon, 1995).

Evangelinos 9 (Konstantinos I. Evangelinos, Research @ brown university, Antonis Skouloudis, Walter Leal Filho, Senior Professor at London Metropolitan University, Ioannis E. Nikolaou, Lecturer under contract in the Department of Environment at the University of the Aegean in the field of environmental economics, “An Analysis of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) and Sustainability Reporting Assessment in the Greek Banking Sector,” Professionals’ Perspectives of Corporate Social 157 Responsibility, 2009, http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2F978-3-642-02630-0_9.pdf)

organizations involved in the financial markets could indeed play an important role in sustainable development the banking sector has developed specific environmental strategies in order to confront contemporary challenges such environmental risks assessment and risk management strategies Most banks perceive environmental issues not only as threats, but also as an opportunity to gain financial benefits or to foresee potential future financial risks that should be avoided banks’ environmental strategies could be classified in two general approaches: those aiming at developing new financial products, and those related to environmental management strategies for reputation. banks have designed new financial tools and loans to finance cleaner technology Such tools are often called ‘green’ lending, ‘green’ funds, ‘green’ bond and other ‘green’ financial products. The overall purpose of these strategies is that they support banks not only by gaining benefits or avoiding risks, but also by playing the role of motivator for firms and other organizations to implement strategies , banks have been implementing different environmental strategies such as energy efficiency and waste management programs

Banking solves the warming and the environment – loans, green product, management strategies

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2013

PROXIMATE FACTORS CAUSING EXTINCTION FROM CLIMATE CHANGE We briefly review and categorize the diverse proximate factors that may cause extinctions due to climate change. We organize these factors by distinguishing between abiotic and biotic factors (following the literature on species range limits [21]). However, all factors are ultimately related to abiotic climate change. We make several caveats about this classification. First, we emphasize broad categories of factors, so some specific factors may not be included. Second, some factors are presently hypothetical and have not yet been demonstrated as causes of extinction. Third, we recognize that these factors are not mutually exclusive and may act synergistically to drive extinction. They may also interact with other, non-climatic factors (e.g. habitat modification [2,6]) and many different ecological and demographic factors may come into play as populations approach extinction [22]. Finally, we do not address factors that impede climate-induced dispersal. (a) Abiotic factors (i) Temperature (physiological tolerances) Many effects of anthropogenic climate change follow from an increase in temperature. The most obvious proximate factor causing extinction is temperatures that exceed the physiological tolerance of the species [10,12]. This factor may be most important in sessile organisms and those with limited thermoregulatory ability, and in regions and time scales in which temperature increase is greatest. The impacts of temperature may also be more indirect, but still related to physiological tolerances. For example, in spiny lizards (Sceloporus), local extinctions seem to occur because higher temperatures restrict surface activity during the spring breeding season to a daily time window that is overly short [23]. Similarly, increased air temperatures may both decrease activity time and increase energy maintenance costs, leading organisms to die from starvation rather than from overheating [14]. In aquatic organisms, increased water temperatures may lead to increased metabolic demand for oxygen while reducing the oxygen content of the water [24]. Variability in temperature may also be an important proximate cause of extinction [25], including both extreme events and large differences over the course of a year. In temperate and polar latitudes, a mismatch between photoperiod cues and temperature may be important, with fixed photoperiod responses leading to activity patterns that are inappropriate for the changed climate [26]. Here, both low and high temperatures could increase mortality rates and lead to population extinction. (ii) Precipitation (physiological tolerances) Anthropogenic changes are also modifying precipitation patterns [27], and these changes may drive extinction in a variety of ways. For example, decreasing precipitation may lead directly to water stress, death and local extinction for terrestrial species [28], and loss of habitat for freshwater species or life stages [29,30]. There may also be synergistic effects between heat and drought stress (e.g. in trees [31]). Changing precipitation may be more important to some species than changing temperature, sometimes leading to range shifts in the direction opposite to those predicted by rising temperatures [32]. (iii) Other abiotic factors Other abiotic, non-climatic factors may drive extinctions that are ultimately caused by climate change. For example, climate change can increase fire frequency, and these fires may be proximate causes of extinction (e.g. in South African plants [33]). Similarly, increases in temperature lead to melting icecaps and rising sea levels [27], which may eliminate coastal habitats and modify the salinity of freshwater habitats [34]. (b) Biotic factors The biotic factors that are the proximate causes of extinction from climate change can be placed in three general categories. (i) Negative impacts on beneficial species Climate change may cause local extinction of a given species by causing declines in a species upon which it depends. These may include prey for predators [35], hosts for parasites and specialized herbivores [16], species that create necessary microhabitats [36] and species that are essential for reproduction (e.g. pollinators [15]). (ii) Positive impacts on harmful species Alternately, climate change may cause extinction through positive effects on species that have negative interactions with a focal species, including competitors [37,38], predators [39,40] and pathogens [41–43]. Warming temperatures can also benefit introduced species, exacerbating their negative effects on native flora and fauna [44]. (iii) Temporal mismatch between interacting species Climate change may also create incongruence between the activity times of interacting species [45]. These phenological mismatches may occur when interacting species respond to different environmental cues (e.g. temperature versus photoperiod for winter emergence) that are not congruently influenced by climate change [46].We consider this category to be distinct from the other two because the differences in activity times are not necessarily negative or positive impacts on the species that are interacting with the focal species.

Cahill ’12 [10/17/12,Abigail E. Cahill, Matthew E. Aiello-Lammens, M. Caitlin Fisher-Reid, Xia Hua, Caitlin J. Karanewsky, Hae Yeong Ryu, Gena C. Sbeglia, Fabrizio Spagnolo, John B. Waldron, Omar Warsi and John J. Wiens. “How does climate change cause extinction,” http://life.bio.sunysb.edu/ee/wienslab/wienspdfs/2012/Cahill_et_al_2012_PRSL.pdf]

FACTORS CAUSING EXTINCTION FROM CLIMATE CHANGE We categorize the diverse proximate factors that cause extinctions due to climate change. all factors are ultimately related to abiotic climate change. these factors are not mutually exclusive and may act synergistically to drive extinction They interact with other, non-climatic factors and many different ecological and demographic factors may come into play as populations approach extinction Temperature effects of climate change follow from an increase in temperature The most obvious proximate causing extinction is temperatures that exceed the physiological tolerance of the species [ The impacts of temperature may also be more indirect, but still related to physiological tolerances increased air temperatures may both decrease activity time and increase energy maintenance costs, leading organisms to die from starvation increased water temperatures may lead to increased metabolic demand for oxygen while reducing the oxygen content of the water Variability in temperature may be an important proximate cause of extinction Precipitation Anthropogenic changes are also modifying precipitation patterns and these changes drive extinction in a variety of wa decreasing precipitation may lead directly to water stress, death and local extinction for terrestrial species and loss of habitat for freshwater species or life stage Changing precipitation may be more important to some species than changing temperature, sometimes leading to range shifts in the direction opposite to those predicted by rising temperatures Other abiotic, non-climatic factors may drive extinctions that are ultimately caused by climate change climate change can increase fire frequency Similarly, increases in temperature lead to melting icecaps and rising sea levels [ eliminate coastal habitats and modify the salinity of freshwater habitats Climate change may cause local extinction of a given species by causing declines in a species upon which it depends These include prey for predators hosts for parasites and specialized herbivores species that create necessary microhabitats and species that are essential for reproduction climate change may cause extinction through positive effects on species that have negative interactions Warming temperatures can also benefit introduced species, exacerbating their negative effects on native flora and fauna Climate change may also create incongruence between the activity times of interacting species These phenological mismatches may occur when interacting species respond to different environmental cues

Warming causes extinction of every species

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2013

By midcentury, the full impact of a fossil fuel economy should be in full swing: global warming. It is now indisputable that the earth is heating up. Within the last century, the earth’s temperature rose 1.3° F, and the pace is accelerating. The signs are unmistakable everywhere we look: The thickness of Arctic ice has decreased by an astonishing 50 percent in just the past fifty years. Much of this Arctic ice is just below the freezing point, floating on water. Hence, it is acutely sensitive to small temperature variations of the oceans, acting as a canary in a mineshaft, an early warning system. Today, parts of the northern polar ice caps disappear during the summer months, and may disappear entirely during summer as early as 2015. The polar ice cap may vanish permanently by the end of the century, disrupting the world’s weather by altering the flow of ocean and air currents around the planet. Greenland’s ice shelves shrank by twenty-four square miles in 2007. This figure jumped to seventy-one square miles in 2008. (If all the Greenland ice were somehow to melt, sea levels would rise about twenty feet around the world.) Large chunks of Antarctica’s ice, which have been stable for tens of thousands of years, are gradually breaking off. In 2000, a piece the size of Connecticut broke off, containing 4,200 square miles of ice. In 2002, a piece of ice the size of Rhode Island broke off the Thwaites Glacier. (If all Antarctica’s ice were to melt, sea levels would rise about 180 feet around the world.) For every vertical foot that the ocean rises, the horizontal spread of the ocean is about 100 feet. Already, sea levels have risen 8 inches in the past century, mainly caused by the expansion of seawater as it heats up. According to the United Nations, sea levels could rise by 7 to 23 inches by 2100. Some scientists have said that the UN report was too cautious in interpreting the data. According to scientists at the University of Colorado’s Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, by 2100 sea levels could rise by 3 to 6 feet. So gradually the map of the earth’s coastlines will change. Temperatures started to be reliably recorded in the late 1700s; 1995, 2005, and 2010 ranked among the hottest years ever recorded; 2000 to 2009 was the hottest decade. Likewise, levels of carbon dioxide are rising dramatically. They are at the highest levels in 100,000 years. As the earth heats up, tropical diseases are gradually migrating northward. The recent spread of the West Nile virus carried by mosquitoes may be a harbinger of things to come. UN officials are especially concerned about the spread of malaria northward. Usually, the eggs of many harmful insects die every winter when the soil freezes. But with the shortening of the winter season, it means the inexorable spread of dangerous insects northward. CARBONDIOXIDE—GREENHOUSEGAS According to the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, scientists have concluded with 90 percent confidence that global warming is driven by human activity, especially the production of carbon dioxide via the burning of oil and coal. Sunlight easily passes through carbon dioxide. But as sunlight heats up the earth, it creates infrared radiation, which does not pass back through carbon dioxide so easily. The energy from sunlight cannot escape back into space and is trapped. We also see a somewhat similar effect in greenhouses or cars. The sunlight warms the air, which is prevented from escaping by the glass. Ominously, the amount of carbon dioxide generated has grown explosively, especially in the last century. Before the Industrial Revolution, the carbon dioxide content of the air was 270 parts per million (ppm). Today, it has soared to 387 ppm. (In 1900, the world consumed 150 million barrels of oil. In 2000, it jumped to 28 billion barrels, a 185-fold jump. In 2008, 9.4 billion tons of carbon dioxide were sent into the air from fossil fuel burning and also deforestation, but only 5 billion tons were recycled into the oceans, soil, and vegetation. The remainder will stay in the air for decades to come, heating up the earth.) VISIT TO ICELAND The rise in temperature is not a fluke, as we can see by analyzing ice cores. By drilling deep into the ancient ice of the Arctic, scientists have been able to extract air bubbles that are thousands of years old. By chemically analyzing the air in these bubbles, scientists can reconstruct the temperature and carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere going back more than 600,000 years. Soon, they will be able to determine the weather conditions going back a million years. I had a chance to see this firsthand. I once gave a lecture in Reykjavik, the capital of Iceland, and had the privilege of visiting the University of Iceland, where ice cores are being analyzed. When your airplane lands in Reykjavik, at first all you see is snow and jagged rock, resembling the bleak landscape of the moon. Although barren and forbidding, the terrain makes the Arctic an ideal place to analyze the climate of the earth hundreds of thousands of years ago. When I visited their laboratory, which is kept at freezing temperatures, I had to pass through thick refrigerator doors. Once inside, I could see racks and racks containing long metal tubes, each about an inch and a half in diameter and about ten feet long. Each hollow tube had been drilled deep into the ice of a glacier. As the tube penetrated the ice, it captured samples from snows that had fallen thousands of years ago. When the tubes were removed, I could carefully examine the icy contents of each. At first, all I could see was a long column of white ice. But upon closer examination, I could see that the ice had stripes made of tiny bands of different colors. Scientists have to use a variety of techniques to date them. Some of the ice layers contain markers indicating important events, such as the soot emitted from a volcanic eruption. Since the dates of these eruptions are known to great accuracy, one can use them to determine how old that layer is. These ice cores were then cut in various slices so they could be examined. When I peered into one slice under a microscope, I saw tiny, microscopic bubbles. I shuddered to realize that I was seeing air bubbles that were deposited tens of thousands of years ago, even before the rise of human civilization. The carbon dioxide content within each air bubble is easily measured. But calculating the temperature of the air when the ice was first deposited is more difficult. (To do this, scientists analyze the water in the bubble. Water molecules can contain different isotopes. As the temperature falls, heavier water isotopes condense faster than ordinary water molecules. Hence, by measuring the amount of the heavier isotopes, one can calculate the temperature at which the water molecule condensed.) Finally, after painfully analyzing the contents of thousands of ice cores, these scientists have come to some important conclusions. They found that temperature and carbon dioxide levels have oscillated in parallel, like two roller coasters moving together, in synchronization over many thousands of years. When one curve rises or falls, so does the other. Most important, they found a sudden spike in temperature and carbon dioxide content happening just within the last century. This is highly unusual, since most fluctuations occur slowly over millennia. This unusual spike is not part of this natural heating process, scientists claim, but is a direct indicator of human activity. There are other ways to show that this sudden spike is caused by human activity, and not natural cycles. Computer simulations are now so advanced that we can simulate the temperature of the earth with and without the presence of human activity. Without civilization producing carbon dioxide, we find a relatively flat temperature curve. But with the addition of human activity, we can show that there should be a sudden spike in both temperature and carbon dioxide. The predicted spike fits the actual spike perfectly. Lastly, one can measure the amount of sunlight that lands on every square foot of the earth’s surface. Scientists can also calculate the amount of heat that is reflected into outer space from the earth. Normally, we expect these two amounts to be equal, with input equaling output. But in reality, we find the net amount of energy that is currently heating the earth. Then if we calculate the amount of energy being produced by human activity, we find a perfect match. Hence, human activity is causing the current heating of the earth. Unfortunately, even if we were to suddenly stop producing any carbon dioxide, the gas that has already been released into the atmosphere is enough to continue global warming for decades to come. As a result, by midcentury, the situation could be dire. Scientists have created pictures of what our coastal cities will look like at midcentury and beyond if sea levels continue to rise. Coastal cities may disappear. Large parts of Manhattan may have to be evacuated, with Wall Street underwater. Governments will have to decide which of their great cities and capitals are worth saving and which are beyond hope. Some cities may be saved via a combination of sophisticated dikes and water gates. Other cities may be deemed hopeless and allowed to vanish under the ocean, creating mass migrations of people. Since most of the commercial and population centers of the world are next to the ocean, this could have a disastrous effect on the world economy. Even if some cities can be salvaged, there is still the danger that large storms can send surges of water into a city, paralyzing its infrastructure. For example, in 1992 a huge storm surge flooded Manhattan, paralyzing the subway system and trains to New Jersey. With transportation flooded, the economy grinds to a halt. FLOODING BANGLADESH AND VIETNAM A report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change isolated three hot spots for potential disaster: Bangladesh, the Mekong Delta of Vietnam, and the Nile Delta in Egypt. The worst situation is that of Bangladesh, a country regularly flooded by storms even without global warming. Most of the country is flat and at sea level. Although it has made significant gains in the last few decades, it is still one of the poorest nations on earth, with one of the highest population densities. (It has a population of 161 million, comparable to that of Russia, but with 1/120 of the land area.) About 50 percent of the land area will be permanently flooded if sea levels rise by three feet. Natural calamities occur there almost every year, but in September 1998, the world witnessed in horror a preview of what may become commonplace. Massive flooding submerged two-thirds of the nation, leaving 30 million people homeless almost overnight; 1,000 were killed, and 6,000 miles of roads were destroyed. This was one of the worst natural disasters in modern history. Another country that would be devastated by a rise in sea level is Vietnam, where the Mekong Delta is particularly vulnerable. By midcentury, this country of 87 million people could face a collapse of its main food-growing area. Half the rice in Vietnam is grown in the Mekong Delta, home to 17 million people, and much of it will be flooded permanently by rising sea levels. According to the World Bank, 11 percent of the entire population would be displaced if sea levels rise by three feet by midcentury. The Mekong Delta will also be flooded with salt water, permanently destroying the fertile soil of the area. If millions are flooded out of their homes in Vietnam, many will flock to Ho Chi Minh City seeking refuge. But one-fourth of the city will also be underwater. In 2003 the Pentagon commissioned a study, done by the Global Business Network, that showed that, in a worst-case scenario, chaos could spread around the world due to global warming. As millions of refugees cross national borders, governments could lose all authority and collapse, so countries could descend into the nightmare of looting, rioting, and chaos. In this desperate situation, nations, when faced with the prospect of the influx of millions of desperate people, may resort to nuclear weapons. “Envision Pakistan, India, and China—all armed with nuclear weapons—skirmishing at their borders over refugees, access to shared rivers, and arable land,” the report said. Peter Schwartz, founder of the Global Business Network and a principal author of the Pentagon study, confided to me the details of this scenario. He told me that the biggest hot spot would be the border between India and Bangladesh. In a major crisis in Bangladesh, up to 160 million people could be driven out of their homes, sparking one of the greatest migrations in human history. Tensions could rapidly rise as borders collapse, local governments are paralyzed, and mass rioting breaks out. Schwartz sees that nations may use nuclear weapons as a last resort. In a worst-case scenario, we could have a greenhouse effect that feeds on itself. For example, the melting of the tundra in the Arctic regions may release millions of tons of methane gas from rotting vegetation. Tundra covers nearly 9 million square miles of land in the Northern Hemisphere, containing vegetation frozen since the last Ice Age tens of thousands of years ago. This tundra contains more carbon dioxide and methane than the atmosphere, and this poses an enormous threat to the world’s weather. Methane gas, moreover, is a much deadlier greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. It does not stay in the atmosphere as long, but it causes much more damage than carbon dioxide. The release of so much methane gas from the melting tundra could cause temperatures to rapidly rise, which will cause even more methane gas to be released, causing a runaway cycle of global warming.

Kaku 11 – Michio Kaku, co-creator of string field theory, a branch of string theory. He received a B.S. (summa cum laude) from Harvard University in 1968 where he came first in his physics class. He went on to the Berkeley Radiation Laboratory at the University of California, Berkeley and received a Ph.D. in 1972. In 1973, he held a lectureship at Princeton University. Michio continues Einstein’s search for a “Theory of Everything,” seeking to unify the four fundamental forces of the universe—the strong force, the weak force, gravity and electromagnetism. He is the author of several scholarly, Ph.D. level textbooks and has had more than 70 articles published in physics journals, covering topics such as superstring theory, supergravity, supersymmetry, and hadronic physics. Professor of Physics — He holds the Henry Semat Chair and Professorship in theoretical physics at the City College of New York, where he has taught for over 25 years. He has also been a visiting professor at the Institute for Advanced Study at Princeton, as well as New York University (NYU). “Physics of the Future” http://213.55.83.52/ebooks/physics/Physics%20of%20the%20Future.pdf Accessed 6/26/12 BJM

It is now indisputable that the earth is heating up. Within the last century, the earth’s temperature rose 1.3° F, and the pace is accelerating. The polar ice cap may vanish permanently disrupting the world’s weather by altering the flow of ocean and air currents around the planet sea levels have risen 8 inches in the past century caused by seawater as it heats up According to the United Nations, sea levels could rise by 7 to 23 inches by 2100 2000 to 2009 was the hottest decade. Likewise, levels of carbon dioxide are rising dramatically. They are at the highest levels in 100,000 years. with the shortening of the winter season, it means the inexorable spread of dangerous insects northward scientists have concluded with 90 percent confidence that global warming is driven by human activity especially the production of carbon dioxide via the burning of oil and coal the amount of carbon dioxide generated has grown explosively The rise in temperature is not a fluke we can see by analyzing ice cores scientists have been able to extract air bubbles that are thousands of years old. after painfully analyzing the contents of thousands of ice cores, these scientists have come to some important conclusions they found a sudden spike in temperature and carbon dioxide content happening just within the last century This unusual spike is not part of this natural heating process, scientists claim, but is a direct indicator of human activity. Computer simulations are now so advanced that we can simulate the temperature of the earth with and without the presence of human activity we can show that there should be a sudden spike in both temperature and carbon dioxide Coastal cities may disappear with Wall Street underwater cities may be deemed hopeless and allowed to vanish under the ocean, creating mass migrations of people. Since most of the commercial and population centers of the world are next to the ocean, this could have a disastrous effect on the world economy. In 2003 the Pentagon commissioned a study, done by the Global Business Network, that showed that chaos could spread around the world governments could lose all authority and collapse, so countries could descend into the nightmare of looting, rioting, and chaos. In this desperate situation, nations may resort to nuclear weapons. Envision Pakistan, India, and China—all armed with nuclear weapons skirmishing at their borders over refugees, access to shared rivers, and land, the report said. Schwartz, founder of the Global Business Network Tensions could rapidly rise as borders collapse governments are paralyzed, and nations may use nuclear weapons as a last resort. we could have a greenhouse effect that feeds on itself. release of so much methane gas from the melting tundra could cause temperatures to rapidly rise, which will cause even more methane gas to be released, causing a runaway cycle of global warming.

Global warming is real, caused by human CO2 emissions, and will cause flooding and feedback loops that causes population migrations fueling political instability, economic collapse, and failed states, escalating to nuclear war in a vicious cycle to extinction

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Affirmatives

2013

Parallel with the need for CSR, environmental or 'green' marketing has emerged as a key issue that could potentially resolve the present crisis, as it can be considered as a tool for sustainable development and for satisfying different stakeholders (Kärnä et al , 2003). As the protection of the environment has become a mainstream issue, a progressive increase in consumer environmental consciousness has emerged (Kalafatis et al , 1999; Chen, 2010), compelling companies to recognise that environmental responsiveness can facilitate innovation and lead to competitive advantages (Peattie and Charter, 1999). Green marketing appears to offer a solution for 'the day after' in the bank market, by contributing towards sustainable development (Portney, 2008) and forming a favourable environmental image that satisfies the customer's environmental desires and green needs (Chang and Fong, 2010). Consequently, future corporate managers are expected to focus particularly on environmental factors when making decisions (Portney, 2008). In support of this notion, several banks already implement environmental strategies and green banking, investing heavily in their environmental image in order to deal with contemporary challenges (Evangelinos et al , 2009). Therefore, bank CSR, green marketing and green brand image (GBI) have all recently attracted considerable research interest. Many academic researchers have attempted to examine bank practices that are being implemented to protect the environment, and a number of studies have been conducted to explore the role of CSR in banking. Furthermore, the concept of a GBI has been considered in various studies related to green management. However, the current marketing literature has not yet offered a holistic view of green bank marketing. In particular, no previous study has examined how green corporate social responsibility (GCSR) may relate to green bank marketing, as one of its constituent variables and no relationship between green marketing and GBI has yet been established.

Soureli 12 (Magdalini, Head of the Marketing Department of ATEbank, Constantine Lymperopoulos, Associate Professor at the University of the Aegean, Department of Business Administration and adjunct Professor at the Hellenic Open University, Ioannis E Chaniotakis, Deputy Director of Deposits and Investment Products Division of ATEbank, “A model of green bank marketing,” Journal of Financial Services Marketing (2012) 17, 177–186, http://www.palgrave-journals.com/fsm/journal/v17/n2/abs/fsm201210a.html)

'green' marketing has emerged as a key issue that could potentially resolve the present crisis it can be considered as a tool for sustainable development As the protection of the environment has become a mainstream issue, a progressive increase in consumer environmental consciousness has emerged compelling companies to recognise that environmental responsiveness can facilitate innovation and lead to competitive advantages Green marketing appears to offer a solution for 'the day after' in the bank market, by contributing towards sustainable development banks implement environmental strategies and green banking, investing heavily in their environmental image bank CSR, green marketing and green brand image (GBI) have all recently attracted considerable research interest

Banking Industry solves warming – Green marketing and green brand image

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2013

Moreover, the study's practical contribution is wide-ranging, as various managerial directions for a successful implementation of green bank marketing emerge, including new knowledge relevant to marketing efficiency, image enforcement and enhanced performance. More specifically, in order for bank marketers to 'go green', this study reveals specific ideas that can be put in action, such as sponsoring environmental projects, training customers and employees to become more conscious about the environment, participating in relevant events, publishing info-material, designing special eco-branches and offering loans that support green causes. On the basis of this study, bank marketers should also pay special attention to their internal processes, aiming at continuous improvement and eco-friendly system solutions. By engaging in these green actions, banks can acquire environmental reputation and establish their environmental concern, which is necessary today more than ever as a way out of the crisis dead-end. The insights that this study generates can result in enhanced planning and resource allocation for green marketing activities and create growth opportunities for banks. The research provides banks with specific strategic plans to consider when implementing green marketing and policies for building and enhancing their reputation. This new image will in turn help banks to win back lost customers and also attract new ones, contributing to banks' sustainability and future prosperity.

Soureli 12 (Magdalini, Head of the Marketing Department of ATEbank, Constantine Lymperopoulos, Associate Professor at the University of the Aegean, Department of Business Administration and adjunct Professor at the Hellenic Open University, Ioannis E Chaniotakis, Deputy Director of Deposits and Investment Products Division of ATEbank, “A model of green bank marketing,” Journal of Financial Services Marketing (2012) 17, 177–186, http://www.palgrave-journals.com/fsm/journal/v17/n2/abs/fsm201210a.html)

, in order for bank marketers to 'go green', this study reveals specific ideas that can be put in action, such as sponsoring environmental projects, training customers and employees to become more conscious about the environment, participating in relevant events, publishing info-material, designing special eco-branches and offering loans that support green causes. bank marketers should also pay special attention to their internal processes, aiming at continuous improvement and eco-friendly system solutions. By engaging in these green actions, banks can acquire environmental reputation and establish their environmental concern The research provides banks with specific strategic plans to consider when implementing green marketing and policies for building and enhancing their reputation

Banking Industry key to solve warming – green strategies

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Affirmatives

2013

Coulson and Monks (1999, p. 5) state that ‘environmental management activities of companies also provide investment opportunities for banks’. Indeed, banks face the challenge of making new funding products to finance companies’ capital equipment for abatement pollution strategies with high returns and reduced financial risks. Numerous banks are now implementing strategies in order to face these contemporary challenges. Generally, these strategies could be separated in the following categories: a) bank lending environmental criteria, b) environmental management strategies, and c) ‘environmental’ financial products. The former category of strategies is based on the idea that the environment has significant impacts on financial institutions’ operations (Thompson and Cowton, 2004). Banks may certainly face financial liabilities from environmental damages caused by borrowers, whose extent depends on the severity of the damage and the prevailing environmental legislation ((Thompson, 1998). In such circumstances, several authors underline the necessity of the banking sector to introduce environmental concerns in their lending decisions (Sarokin and Schulkin, 1991; Smith, 1994; Coulson and Monks, 1999). The second category of strategies is based on and other resources. For this purpose, banks may implement environmental strategies for managing these resources from an economic and environmental point of view. According to Weiler et al. (1997), such environmental strategies may be the implementation of ISO 14001 and EMAS. Finally, the last category derives from the assumption that the physical environment has a symbiotic relationship with banks. For example, this view is adopted by some banks in connection with new financial products aiming to explore the tendency of firms to invest in new environmental management strategies including cleaner technology. Such products include loans for investments in new environmentally friendly technology and equipment, ‘environmental’ mutual funds, green charge cards, and specific bonds (Boyer and Laffont, 1997; Laundgren and Catasus, 2000; Schmitt and Spaeter, 2005).

Evangelinos 9 (Konstantinos I. Evangelinos, Research @ brown university, Antonis Skouloudis, Walter Leal Filho, Senior Professor at London Metropolitan University, Ioannis E. Nikolaou, Lecturer under contract in the Department of Environment at the University of the Aegean in the field of environmental economics, “An Analysis of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) and Sustainability Reporting Assessment in the Greek Banking Sector,” Professionals’ Perspectives of Corporate Social 157 Responsibility, 2009, http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2F978-3-642-02630-0_9.pdf)

environmental management activities of companies also provide investment opportunities for banks’ banks face the challenge of abatement pollution strategies Numerous banks are now implementing strategies in order to face challenges. strategies could be separated in the following categories: a) bank lending environmental criteria, b) environmental management strategies, and c) ‘environmental’ financial products former category of strategies is based on the idea that the environment has significant impacts on financial institutions’ operations Banks may certainly face financial liabilities from environmental damages second category of strategies is based on and other resources. For this purpose, banks may implement environmental strategies for managing these resources from an economic and environmental point of view. the last category derives from the assumption that the physical environment has a symbiotic relationship with banks. this view is adopted by some banks in connection with new financial products aiming to explore the tendency of firms to invest in new environmental management strategies including cleaner technology. Such products include loans for investments in new environmentally friendly technology and equipment, ‘environmental’ mutual funds, green charge cards, and specific bonds

Banking solves the environment – bank lending criteria, environmental management strategies, and environmental financial products

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Affirmatives

2013

The overall results regarding the long-term effects of exchange rate volatility are highly informative in relation to the exports and imports of an LDC. Mexico's exports of agricultural goods are clearly depressed by uncertainty: Table 3 shows that no unprocessed agricultural good responds positively, while various animal, vegetable, and wood products make up 6 of the 21 industries with negative effects. Imports are also affected. While the category of Oil-seeds, oil nuts, and oil kernels does seem to increase because of uncertainty, 6 of the 21 industries in which volatility reduces import flows are agricultural in nature. Mexican textile exports also show clear negative effects due to uncertainty, not only for the category of Clothing except fur clothing, but also for the inputs of Textile and leather machinery and Textile yarn and thread (in Table 4).

Bahmani-Oskooee 9 (Mohsen, Wilmeth Professor and UWM Distinguished Professor Chair, Department of Economics @ University of Wisconsin, Scott W. Hegerty, Economics professor @ Northeastern Illinois University, “The Effects of Exchange-Rate Volatility on Commodity Trade between the United States and Mexico,” Southern Economic Journal, 2009, http://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/27751431)

Mexico's exports of agricultural goods are clearly depressed by uncertainty no unprocessed agricultural good responds positively, while various animal, vegetable, and wood products make up 6 of the 21 industries with negative effects. Imports are also affected 6 of the 21 industries in which volatility reduces import flows are agricultural in nature. Mexican textile exports also show clear negative effects due to uncertainty

Exchange Rate Volatility Hurts Agriculture

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The result related to the exchange rate variable is consistent with the hypothesis that a depreciation of the Unites States currency relative to the Mexican peso makes imports into Mexico less expensive resulting in an increase of maize imports. The results in Table 5 also suggest that in the short-run volatility has a negative influence on Mexican imports of maize from the United States. Thus, risk-averse importers are discouraged by higher volatility episodes of the Mexico-US exchange rate which leads to lower volumes of maize imports by Mexico from the United States.

Sarker 11 (Rakhal, Associate Professor Department of Food, Agricultural and Resource Economics, “EXCHANGE RATE SENSITIVITY OF MEXICAN MAIZE IMPORTS FROM THE UNITED STATES: A COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS,” May 10, 2011, http://econmodels.com/upload7282/0b53e481581ff7cf54f1fe3e49036c79.pdf)

a depreciation of the Unites States currency relative to the Mexican peso makes imports into Mexico less expensive resulting in an increase of maize imports in the short-run volatility has a negative influence on Mexican imports of maize from the United States. Thus, risk-averse importers are discouraged by higher volatility episodes of the Mexico-US exchange rate which leads to lower volumes of maize imports by Mexico from the U S

Exchange Rate fluctuations Decrease Mexican Corn imports

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In order to analyse the effect of exchange rate uncertainty, we apply an empirical gravity equation to two sets of US bilateral trade data: fresh fruit over the period 1976–1999 for a panel of 26 countries; and fresh vegetables over the period 1976–2006 for a panel of nine countries. Based on panel estimation methods, and using both a moving SD measure and the Perée and Steinherr (1989) measure of exchange rate uncertainty, the results show that US bilateral fresh fruit trade has been negatively affected by exchange rate uncertainty. We also find some evidence that the exchange rate between the US dollar and the currencies of Latin American trading partners accounts for most of the negative impact of exchange rate uncertainty on bilateral trade flows in fresh fruit. In contrast, when using panel estimation methods and both measures of exchange rate uncertainty, we find no statistically significant evidence for any negative effect of exchange rate uncertainty on US bilateral fresh vegetable trade. However, we do find a statistically significant negative effect for exchange rate uncertainty when we estimate a US export gravity equation for fresh vegetables using the same panel of countries.

Pick 12 (D. Pick, Department of Agricultural, Environmental and Development Economics, The Ohio State University, S. R. Thompson, Economic Research Service, United States Department of Agriculture, I Sheldon, S. Khadka Mishra, 05 Apr 2012, “Exchange rate uncertainty and US bilateral fresh fruit and fresh vegetable trade: an application of the gravity model,” Applied Economics Volume 45, Issue 15, 2013, http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036846.2011.650330)

In order to analyse the effect of exchange rate uncertainty, we apply an empirical gravity equation using both a moving SD measure and the Perée and Steinherr (1989) measure of exchange rate uncertainty, the results show that US bilateral fresh fruit trade has been negatively affected by exchange rate uncertainty. exchange rate between the US dollar and the currencies of Latin American trading partners accounts for most of the negative impact of exchange rate uncertainty on bilateral trade flows in fresh fruit we do find a statistically significant negative effect for exchange rate uncertainty when we estimate a US export gravity equation for fresh vegetables using the same panel of countries

Fluctuations Hurt Fruit and Vegetable Trade

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Affirmatives

2013

As powerful and plausible as these constraints appear on the surface, some scholars have made important arguments defending the possibility of policy autonomy, at least in the OECD context. For example, Garrett (1998) makes a case for policy autonomy drawing on an extensive literature about the relationship between left party power and union power. In this conception, leftist governments are more capable of maintaining wage discipline in tandem with strong, encompassing labor unions than right-wing governments are. Thus, left-wing govern ments can finance social-democratic programs and avoid inflationary pressure because of negotiated wage restraint. An alternative argument comes from Carles Boix (1998) that focuses on different ways of shaping supply-side policies. Boix observes that internationalization of the economy has forced gov ernments to focus on the supply-side of the economy, but there are different ways to shape supply-side poli cies that conform clearly to partisan preferences. Left-wing governments are more concerned with employment and therefore seek to increase produc tivity of capital and labor through investment in edu cation and infrastructure (and even potentially through a public business sector). In contrast, right wing governments prefer to improve productivity and efficiency through increased private sector control of investments. Thus, right-wing governments lower taxes and attempt to limit public sector spending. Both Garrett and Boix are supported by a number of quantitative studies supporting the view that OECD countries are able to maintain policy autonomy, regardless of the pressure of the international finan cial system (for example, Oatley 1999).

Kingstone and Young ’09 (Peter Kingstone- Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of Connecticut and Joseph Young- Assistant Professor of Political Science, Southern Illinois University; “Partisanship and Policy Choice: What's Left for the Left in Latin America?”; March 2009; Source: Political Research Quarterly, Vol. 62, No. 1 (Mar., 2009), pp. 29-41; available on JStor—http://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/27759843.pdf)

As powerful as these constraints appear scholars have made important arguments defending the possibility of policy autonomy Garrett makes a case for policy autonomy drawing on an extensive literature about the left party power and union power , leftist governments are more capable of maintaining wage discipline in tandem with strong, encompassing labor unions than right-wing governments are. , left-wing govern ments can finance social-democratic programs and avoid inflationary pressure because of negotiated wage restraint Both Garrett and Boix are supported by a number of quantitative studies supporting the view that countries are able to maintain policy autonomy regardless of the pressure of the international system

Discussion of specific policies in Latin America is the only way to achieve political autonomy

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Case Negatives

2013

This focus on the role of politics- political regime type, parties, and state- provided social policy - builds on a growing body of research about the political econ- omy of Latin American poverty. This new line of investigation has begun to move away from the Washington Consensus' nearly exclusive focus on the impact of economic growth on poverty reduction and toward a more nuanced view of the achievement of so- cial welfare. At the height of the neoliberal Washington Consensus, economists and pol- icymakers stressed that Latin America's high poverty levels were largely the result of slow growth.4 This explanation gained support in the wake of the 1982 debt crisis and was maintained throughout the 1 990s by national and international technocrats, who ar- gued that Latin America's poor economic performance was the result of decades of "in- efficient" economic policy in the form of trade barriers, exchange rate controls, and a large public sector. Proponents of the Washington Consensus encouraged governments to liberalize their markets with the aim of boosting economic growth. This growth in GDP was expected to have automatic spill-over effects, such as increased employment and poverty reduction. In essence, technocrats suggested that, with the proper reforms, countries in the region could "grow" themselves out of poverty. In this way, the Washington Consensus painted a picture of Latin American poverty in which politics was of marginal importance, and the policy prescriptions paid little attention to political factors that mediate the effects of growth on poverty. This view of poverty reduction began to be challenged in the late 1990s, when after several years of steady growth in Latin America many countries continued to lag behind in poverty reduction. The puzzle presented by the coexistence of economic growth and high levels of poverty prompted a revision of the most orthodox versions of the Washington Consensus. Indeed, several new studies stressed the importance of public policy in determining poverty levels. This new policy-oriented approach to poverty reduction was supported by international financial institutions, such as the World Bank, and a new "human capital" approach to poverty reduction began to attract attention.5 While this new approach to poverty reduction recognizes the important role of public policy, particularly investment in education and healthcare, it still pays relatively little attention to domestic political factors such as the nature of parties, regime type, and the institutional structure of the state. This neglect of political differences among countries is shortsighted; differences in political regime type and partisan ideology have an important effect on cross-national variation in Latin American poverty

Pribble et al ’09 (Jennifer Pribble- Assistant Professor of Political Science and International Studies at the University of Richmond; Evelyne Huber- Morehead Alumni Professor of Political Science and Chair of the Department of Political Science at the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill; John D. Stephens- Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Sociology; Director, Center for European Studies, received his B.A. (1970) from Harvard University and his Ph.D. (1976) from Yale University; “Politics, Policies, and Poverty in Latin America”; July 2009; Comparative Politics, Vol. 41, No. 4 (July 2009), pp. 387-407; available on Jstor @ http://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/40599215.pdf)

research about the political econ- omy of Latin American poverty has begun to move away from the Washington Consensus' focus on the impact of economic growth the neoliberal Washington Consensus stressed that Latin America's high poverty levels were the result of slow growth technocrats suggested countries could "grow" themselves out of poverty the Washington Consensus painted a picture of Latin American poverty in which politics was of marginal importance, and the policy prescriptions paid little attention to political factors that mediate the effects of growth on poverty several new studies stressed the importance of public policy in determining poverty levels This new policy-oriented approach was supported by international financial institutions and began to attract attention this new approach recognizes the important role of public policy

Critical theory fails---research and policy focus in Latin America are vital---key to prevent poverty and other issues

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Case Negatives

2013

The growing interest in the interaction of policies and politics is a welcome antidote to the gap between theoretical and applied knowledge in the social sciences. Given the winners and losers and the sometimes dramatic political, social, and economic consequences of public policies, it is morally as well as professionally important to continue to try to bridge this chasm. The complexity of politics as they really happen means that policies usually result in consequences different from those intended by their designers and executors. It therefore makes sense for outsiders—in this case scholars—to join politicians, technocrats, interest groups, lobbyists, pundits, and the like in scrutinizing the complex interaction of politics and policies. The four volumes reviewed in these pages make original individual and collective contributions to this endeavor.

González no date (Francisco E.- Riordan Roett Senior Associate Professor of Latin American Studies at Johns Hopkins and British Academy Postdoctoral Fellow at Nuffield College at the University of Oxford; was a professorial lecturer at SAIS's Bologna Center and a lecturer in politics at St. John's College at the University of Oxford; received 2006 SAIS Excellence in Teaching Award; Ph.D., politics, University of Oxford; “POLITICS AND POLICIES”; http://lasa.international.pitt.edu/LARR/prot/fulltext/vol48no1/48-1_221-227_gonzales.pdf)

growing interest in the interaction of policies and politics is a welcome ntidote to the gap between theoretical and applied knowledge in the social sciences it is morally important to bridge this chasm complexity of politics means policies usually result in consequences different from those intended It therefore makes sense for scholars to join politicians, technocrats, interest groups, lobbyists, pundits, and the like in scrutinizing the complex interaction of politics and policies

Moral obligation to bridge the gap between theoretical and pragmatic approaches---scholars must engage in the policy debate

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Case Negatives

2013

An ongoing political trend in Latin America is the inconsistent execution of parties to create substantive policies that address social and economic needs of their countries. While citizens are hungry for solutions to problems affecting their everyday lives – challenges such as unemployment, high crime, bad roads, poor education and lack of medicine – their political parties are many times only offering speeches and rhetoric intended to win votes on Election Day. Within the ‘marketplace of ideas’, descriptive policy, strategic substance and thoughtful analysis give way to ambiguity, unachievable promises and shallow discourse. Within this framework, the race to win seats in public office no longer rely on the best ideas and the best plans, but instead hinge on the influence of money, scandals, superficial advertising and sensationalist journalism. The International Republican Institute’s (IRI) Latin America Think Tank Policy Initiative addresses this phenomenon and helps make political discourse substantive and relevant to the needs and interests of citizens. The initiative regularly joins together thought leaders and think tanks from countries in the region to share policy opinions and create common platforms of regional thematic priorities. In turn, these enlightened think tank analysts return their focus to their home countries and educate parties on innovative policy ideas, regional trends and helpful data. The goal is that parties and candidates will open themselves to this substantive influence and ultimately create their own thoughtful platforms. To help encourage the advancement of substantive policies, IRI fosters a policy-focused network that allows independent and party-affiliated think tanks throughout Latin America to not only convene and discuss important issues, but helps them share resources to study issues, share opinion research and develop specific policy direction that will ultimately be shared throughout the region. The network is focusing on eight priority themes which affect practically countries in Latin America: poverty reduction; education needs; health care improvement; environmental challenges; economic development, tax and fiscal policy; citizen security; democratic participation; and social inclusion. In the second phase of the initiative, IRI utilizes its relationships with political stakeholders, media and civil society to share these cooperative policy ideas more broadly, working with political leaders to incorporate these ideas into their own campaign platforms, policy agendas and governing strategies. Ultimately, these policy proposals will help drive more substantive discussion and debate among political leaders and elected officials on how to solve the most pressing issues facing Latin America.

IRI ’12 (International Republican Institute; “Latin America Think Tank Policy Initiative”; http://www.iri.org/sites/default/files/Latin%20America%20Think%20Tank%20Policy%20Initiative%2011-4-11_0.pdf)

An ongoing trend in Latin America is the inconsistent execution to create substantive policies that address social and economic needs citizens are hungry for solutions such as unemployment, high crime, bad roads, poor education and lack of medicine political parties are only offering rhetoric to win votes descriptive policy strategic substance and thoughtful analysis give way to ambiguity, unachievable promises and shallow discourse Within this framework the race no longer rely on the best ideas and plans but instead hinge on sensationalist journalism IRI fosters a policy-focused network focusing on themes which affect practically countries in Latin America: poverty reduction; education needs; health care improvement; environmental challenges; economic development, tax and fiscal policy; citizen security; democratic participation; and social inclusion. these policy proposals will help drive more substantive discussion and debate among political leaders and elected officials on how to solve the most pressing issues facing Latin America.

Link turn---the 1AC is analogous to Latin American politicians using rhetoric to win votes instead of discussing substantive policies---policy proposals facilitate discussion among officials on how to solve systemic problems in Latin America

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Northwestern (NHSI)

Case Negatives

2013

This analysis is offered from a critical point of view in the hope that it may not only provide a better understanding of the recent past but inform current debates about the way forward in economic policy making in Latin America. It is our conviction that the contested character of the recent reform process requires a revisionist exercise that unveils the shortcomings of prior policies and paves the way for innovative ideas that address the material aspirations and demands of the majority of Latin Americans better than the Washington Consensus did. Our position is not that ideas were the prime movers of neoliberal transformation—interests and institutions were also important—but that the mechanisms for their promulgation have been understudied.

Margheritis and Pereira ’07 (Ana- assistant professor of international relations and Latin American politics at the University of Florida and Anthony- associate professor of political science at Tulane University; “The Neoliberal Turn in Latin America: The Cycle of Ideas and the Search for an Alternative”; Latin American Perspectives, Vol. 34, No. 3, Contested Transformation (May, 2007),pp. 25-48)

This analysis is offered from a critical point of view in the hope that it may not only provide a better understanding of the recent past but inform current debates about the way forward in economic policy making in Latin America the recent reform process requires a revisionist exercise that unveils the shortcomings of prior policies and paves the way for innovative ideas that address the material aspirations and demands of the majority of Latin Americans better than the Washington Consensus did mechanisms have been understudied.

Only researching specific mechanisms will result in policies geared towards the interest of Latin Americans

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Case Negatives

2013

ANTIGUA, Guatemala — Latin American countries frustrated by the United States' refusal to change its drug war strategy are pushing the U.S. government to look at alternatives to a fight that has killed tens of thousands in a region beset by drug cartels.Guatemalan Foreign Relations Secretary Fernando Carrera said the subject of drugs will top the agenda at the Organization of American States' General Assembly, which began its three-day session in Antigua on Tuesday evening."We have already reached a consensus and agreed that our final declaration will include changes to the current anti-drug model," Carrera said. "We already have some ideas on how to change drug-fighting policies."U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Assistant Secretary for the Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs William R. Brownfield were attending the meeting, which comes two weeks after the OAS released a report calling for a serious discussion on legalizing marijuana.The OAS study doesn't make specific proposals and found there is "no significant support" among the OAS's 35 member states for legalizing cocaine, the illegal drug with the greatest impact on Latin America, or other harsher drugs.The study was commissioned after some Latin American leaders called on President Barack Obama to rethink the war on drugs at last year's Summit of the Americas in Cartagena, Colombia.It urges "assessing existing signals and trends that lean toward the decriminalization or legalization of the production, sale and use of marijuana. Sooner or later decisions in this area will need to be taken."The Obama administration, however, believes it has already adopted a comprehensive counter-narcotics approach that melds cutting demand for drugs and treatment withlaw enforcement and interdiction of supply.A senior U.S. official traveling with Kerry said the OAS would endorse that multi-pronged strategy and pointed out that there is no consensus either within the hemisphere or in individual countries on legalization.This is true even in the United States, where several states have legalized marijuana, said the official, who was not authorized to preview Kerry's discussions publicly. The U.S is open to discussing ideas, but will not as a federal government support decriminalization.Human Rights Watch urged the OAS countries to explore legal regulation as a way to help stem the violence of organized crime and drug traffickers inflicted on many Latin American countries. The international human rights group said that criminalizing personal drug use "undermine" basic human rights."The `drug war' has taken a huge toll in the Americas, from the carnage of brutal drug trafficking organizations to the egregious abuses by security forces fighting them," the group's Americas director, Jose Miguel Vivanco, said in a statement. "Governments should find new policies to address the harm drug use causes, while curbing the violence and abuse that have plagued the current approach."Dozens of human rights organizations from Canada to Argentina signed a letter Monday asking for leaders "to discuss and rethink the existing initiatives with a view to place human rights in the center of the debate."Among those countries pushing for a dialogue on drugs in the Western Hemisphere are many who have been close allies of the United States' fight against drugs, including Colombia and Guatemala.Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos was among those urging a discussion of legalization. He said that while his country extradites hundreds of alleged drug traffickers for trial in the U.S., criminals turn to other countries where law enforcement is weaker. Central America and Mexico in particular have been hit hard as traffickers shifted operations there.President Otto Perez Molina of Guatemala, a hard-hit cocaine transit country along with neighboring Honduras, made headlines shortly after taking office last year when he proposed legalizing drugs."The message has been sent that the hemisphere wants to look at alternative approaches and wants the United States to be part of that discussion," said Cynthia Arnson, director of the Latin American program at the Washington-based Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.Arnson said Latin American leaders will use the meeting to spur a discussion that can be sustained as countries try to go forward with a new strategy."Latin American countries will mostly be looking for ways to diminish the violence and the negative effects on their societies and their economies posed by organized crime and they may increasingly diverge with the United States over what policies to adapt," she said.While the OAS meeting promises to serve as a forum to begin discussing the legalization of marijuana, talking about harder drugs like cocaine, heroin and methamphetamines may be harder to bring to the table, Arnson said."It's one thing to say, `Let's break the ice on talking about these issues,' and it's another thing to come forward with concrete proposals for dealing with harder drugs that many countries can sign on to, including the United States," she said.

Huffington Post 6-4-13 (“Latin America Will Push U.S. To Discuss New Drug War Strategies At OAS Meeting”; http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/06/04/new-drug-war-strategy-_n_3383786.html)

Latin American countries frustrated by the United States' refusal to change its drug war strategy are pushing the U.S. government to look at alternatives We have reached a consensus our final declaration will include changes to the current model We have some ideas Latin American leaders called on Obama to rethink the war on drugs at last year's Summit Governments should find new policies to address the harm drug use causes, while curbing violence and abuse Dozens of human rights organizations signed a letter asking for leaders "to discuss and rethink the existing initiatives with a view to place human rights in the center of the debate." including Colombia and Guatemala It's one thing to say, `Let's break the ice and it's another thing to come forward with concrete proposals

The 1AC fails---we’ve been open to Latin American ideas but have failed to act---the drug war proves---they want concrete proposals---that means their bracketing argument doesn’t make sense

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Pragmatically, we understand that worse case scenarios will often win out in the realist, security-focused decisionmaking process. US policy-makers probably never considered ignoring the communist “threat” they perceived. Instead, they envisioned impending disaster: that the USSR would gain influence and the region would go “communistic,” as President Johnson liked to say. Therefore, Washington carried out policies that emphasized military and covert solutions to the potential of increased Soviet/communist influence. When danger seemed imminent, foreign policy makers believed that the ends would justify the means. The means, however, while not necessarily enhancing US military and economic power, undermined America’s soft power. ¶ The Cold War is now a part of history, and despite the recent alarm over the turn to the left, Latin America is completely devoid of any serious threats to democracy, capitalism, or U.S. security interests. If a clear danger exists, it is the threat posed by militaries that still retain some of the power amassed during the Cold War years when Washington gave them extensive material and moral support. If it is going to behave like a hegemon in Latin America, then the United States should introduce a more ethical (hegemonic) foreign policy toward the region. To this end we would recommend a few modest proposals to current U.S. policy. If Washington is not bold enough to take these steps in Latin America, then it is doomed to maintaining an anachronistic realpolitik stance that in the long term will undermine America’s power and image. A hegemonic power’s inability to provide collective, universal goods to subordinate states will necessarily result in its own downfall.¶ First and foremost, the United States should unilaterally adopt a policy of non-intervention and non-interference. Latin American scholars and political leaders have called for these policies almost since the time of independence in the early 1820s. Rather than comply, American presidents issued two interventionist policies, the Monroe Doctrine in 1823 and the Roosevelt Corollary to that doctrine in 1904, also known as Big Stick Diplomacy. In the 1930s, however, when the United States wanted Latin America’s cooperation, Franklin Delano Roosevelt announced the Good Neighbour Policy which called for non-intervention, non-interference, and consultation. At the time, the Organization of American States (OAS) did not exist so a regional international organization was not available for multilateral consultation. Along with non-intervention and non-interference, however, Washington should emphasize America’s commitment to deal with regional problems through the OAS, rather than unilaterally and via US pressure. If the US government adopted non-intervention as its default position, the nations of Latin America would, as they did in the 1930s, rejoice and begin to admire the colossus to the north.¶ This policy would be essentially cost-free (if not cost-saving, given the costs associated with intervention) and would go a long way to improve US-Latin American relations. A policy of non-intervention would move Washington away from one of the “sins” of US foreign policy—a heavy reliance on military solutions to global problems (Johnson, 2007, chapter 3). Former undersecretary of defence and noted scholar Joseph Nye underscored this problem when he wrote the following: “While Congress has been willing to spend 16 percent of the national budget on defence, the percentage devoted to international affairs has shrunk from 4 percent in the 1960s to just 1 percent today. Our military strength is important, but it is not sixteen times more important than our diplomacy” (Quoted in Pieterse, 2004, p. 18). This first step would yield a classic win-win situation since it would be enthusiastically welcomed throughout Latin America, would cost nothing, and would almost immediately enhance the US image in the region, thus enhancing rather than limiting US hegemony.¶ Along with the spirit of non-intervention is the notion of non-interference. Thus, we suggest that the United States should refrain to the greatest extent possible from using CIA covert operations and refrain from engaging in regime changes in democratic countries. We are not suggesting that this agency be abolished.¶ The CIA can be used to collect information, or “intelligence,” that may be useful for US decision-makers to keep well-informed and make sound decisions. Problems with intelligence have emerged in the past not so much from the accuracy of the information but from the way in which presidents have used the information. The US invasion of Iraq in 2003 is a dramatic, recent example. Washington’s mishandling of intelligence, however, is not new. For example, prior to the Cuban missile crisis, the CIA became aware via human intelligence that the Soviets were installing missiles on the island. The Kennedy Administration, however, did not consider the information as reliable because Khrushchev had personally given Kennedy assurances that he would take no such action. In the Dominican Republic in 1965, the CIA informed Washington that President Busch’s supporters were for the most part non-communist. Again, US decision makers ignored the information and decided to intervene militarily. On numerous occasions, then, the CIA has acquired valuable information that could have been very useful for making potentially good decisions. Consequently, a CIA that collects intelligence on friendly nations can be an important foreign policy asset. A CIA, however, that engages in covert operations against democracies is something that should be rejected both on ethical and realist grounds. More recently, the rapid U.S. recognition of governments that carried out military coups against elected presidents in Venezuela (2004) and Honduras (2009) shows that Washington continues to be more concerned with promoting pro-US regimes than preserving the principle of democratic rule. The dirty tactics of the Cold War, and earlier, should be terminated immediately, particularly since not one of the countries in the region can be even remotely perceived as an existential security threat to the United States.¶ Related to ending CIA dirty tricks is the recommendation that the U.S. government should cease special operations in Latin America by the US military and CIA. Covert incursions into sovereign territory of friendly and mostly democratic countries should not be a standard procedure conducted by the United States. No “threat” in Latin America can justify a breach of international law against countries that are friendly to the United States, especially those that have accepted the US political and economic models. If the US government believes that the drug trade is such a serious problem that covert operations are warranted, then it should seek and gain the consent of the nations in the region, or the particular country in which the operation is to be carried out, before carrying out such operations. Needless to say, Washington should also terminate its unilateral policy of “certification” of nations that are cooperating in the anti-drug effort. The certification process is mostly used for political purposes and only serves to develop a negative image of the United States. The drug problem is mostly a US consumption problem rather than a Latin American production and transhipment problem and thus Washington should be deal with it principally at home.¶ Next, the United States should introduce a socioeconomic development program for Latin America. In 1961, John F. Kennedy unveiled the Alliance for Progress, a bold, new U.S. policy initiative that called for Latin America’s socioeconomic transformation and development. The region was delighted with the Alliance and to this date there are literally hundreds of schools in the region named after Kennedy. The United States, via the Washington consensus, pressured the countries of the region to adopt neoliberal economic policies in the 1980s—policies that would help the US economy by opening the region to US exports. Latin America, for the most part although with hesitance, embraced these policies even though they were, and continue to be, disruptive politically and economically. Washington needs to ensure that these policies yield economic benefits for the region and thus should establish a new policy that helps the countries of the region with debt payments and to weather economic transformation. One drawback with Kennedy’s Alliance was that it also had a dark, militaristic side. Since the Alliance was designed principally to minimize the appeal of communism, the US government also provided large amounts of military aid to the militaries of the region, helping to undermine democracies and to overinstitutionalize the region’s armed forces. Since America currently faces no substantial threat in Latin America, a bold, new economic policy toward the region does not require a military dimension. Rather than instituting controversial initiatives such as Plan Colombia, the United States should instead assist the nations of the region in developing their civilian institutions— but only if those nations want assistance.

Sanchez and Sholar ’12 [December 2012, Peter, PhD Loyola University Chicago, and Megan, PhD Loyola University Chicago, “Power and Principle: A New US Policy for Latin America”, http://www.ijhssnet.com/journals/Vol_2_No_23_December_2012/3.pdf]

Pragmatically, we understand that worse case scenarios will often win out in the realist, security-focused decisionmaking process. US policy-makers probably never considered ignoring the communist “threat” they perceived. they envisioned impending disaster: that the USSR would gain influence and the region would go “communistic,” as President Johnson liked to say Washington carried out policies that emphasized military and covert solutions to the potential of increased Soviet/communist influence. When danger seemed imminent, foreign policy makers believed that the ends would justify the means Latin America is completely devoid of any serious threats to democracy, capitalism, or U.S. security interests. If a clear danger exists, it is the threat posed by militaries that still retain some of the power amassed during the Cold War years when Washington gave them extensive material and moral support. If it is going to behave like a hegemon in Latin America, then the United States should introduce a more ethical (hegemonic) foreign policy toward the region. To this end we would recommend a few modest proposals to current U.S. policy. If Washington is not bold enough to take these steps in Latin America, then it is doomed to maintaining an anachronistic realpolitik stance that in the long term will undermine America’s power and image. A hegemonic power’s inability to provide collective, universal goods to subordinate states will necessarily result in its own downfall. the United States should unilaterally adopt a policy of non-intervention and non-interference. Latin American scholars and political leaders have called for these policies almost since the time of independence in the early 1820s. Rather than comply, American presidents issued two interventionist policies, the Monroe Doctrine in 1823 and the Roosevelt Corollary to that doctrine in 1904, also known as Big Stick Diplomacy. In the 1930s when the United States wanted Latin America’s cooperation, Franklin Delano Roosevelt announced the Good Neighbour Policy called for non-intervention, non-interference, and consultation the Organization of American States did not exist so a regional international organization was not available for multilateral consultation. Along with non-intervention and non-interference, Washington should emphasize America’s commitment to deal with regional problems through the OAS, rather than unilaterally and via US pressure. If the US government adopted non-intervention as its default position, the nations of Latin America would rejoice and begin to admire the colossus to the north. This policy would be cost-saving given the costs associated with intervention) and would go a long way to improve US-Latin American relations. A policy of non-intervention would move Washington away from one of the “sins” of US foreign policy—a heavy reliance on military solutions to global problems This would yield a win-win situation since it would be enthusiastically welcomed throughout Latin America, would cost nothing, and would almost immediately enhance the US image in the region, thus enhancing rather than limiting US hegemony. we suggest the United States should refrain to the greatest extent possible from using CIA covert operations and refrain from engaging in regime changes in democratic countries. The CIA can be used to collect intelligence that may be useful for US decision-makers to keep well-informed and make sound decisions the U.S. government should cease special operations in Latin America by the US military and CIA. Covert incursions into sovereign territory of friendly and mostly democratic countries should not be a standard procedure conducted by the United States. No “threat” in Latin America can justify a breach of international law against countries that are friendly to the United States, especially those that have accepted the US political and economic models Washington should terminate its unilateral policy of “certification” of nations that are cooperating in the anti-drug effort the United States should introduce a socioeconomic development program for Latin America. In 1961, John F. Kennedy unveiled the Alliance for Progress, a bold, new U.S. policy initiative that called for Latin America’s socioeconomic transformation and development. The region was delighted with the Alliance and to this date there are literally hundreds of schools in the region named after Kennedy. The United States, via the Washington consensus, pressured the countries of the region to adopt neoliberal economic policies in the 1980s—policies that would help the US economy by opening the region to US exports. Latin America, embraced these policies Washington needs to ensure that these policies yield economic benefits for the region and thus should establish a new policy that helps the countries of the region with debt payments and to weather economic transformation Since America currently faces no substantial threat in Latin America, a bold, new economic policy toward the region does not require a military dimension.

State action is good---fiat allows us to imagine the possibility of any one of the plethora of possible ethical policies

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Case Negatives

2013

The economic challenges that Latin America faces are well known. The region needs higher and more sustained growth than it has experienced in recent decades, and growth needs to be more inclusive. It needs to bring about greater reductions in poverty and inequality than have happened in the past. Javier offers hope that some changes may be underway that would help the region meet these challenges. He notes that we may be witnessing in much of Latin America the emergence of the `politics or pragmatism'. I like this phrase very much. I think it is a very fortunate phase. It refers to a politics that, and here I am quoting from the book, "is more concerned with effective outcomes than with conceptual purity." The real challenge is: how do you get it going, how can you really bring about the political consensus to make this `politics of pragmatism' really work out. But I think this is a very close description of what is going on and more of such politics would be quite fruitful in the region. Growth in the past has suffered from policy reversals. Economic policies in the region have too often swung between extremes driven by the political whims of the party or person in power. It would be a welcome development if policies are chosen on the basis of evidence of what has worked. This ensures broad continuity in policies and sets a basis for sustained growth. To me, the clearest evidence of such a shift in attitudes is in the conduct of macroeconomic policies, particularly monetary policies.

Carstens ‘6 [2006, Agustín, Mexican economist who serves as the Governor of the Bank of Mexico, “Transcript of “Opening Remarks by Agustín Carstens”, http://www.imf.org/external/np/tr/2006/tr060523.htm]

Latin America needs more sustained growth we may be witnessing the emergence of the `politics or pragmatism' refers to a politics that is more concerned with effective outcomes than with conceptual purity The real challenge is how can you really bring about the political consensus to make this `politics of pragmatism' really work out Growth in the past have too often swung between extremes driven by the political whims of the party It would be a welcome development if policies are chosen on the basis of evidence of what has worked. the clearest evidence of such a shift in attitudes is in the conduct of macroeconomic policies, particularly monetary policies.

Our framework is the best methodology---reformist policies are key to Latin American economic prosperity

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Pragmatic Politics—Most Latin American countries are turning toward centrist, pragmatic politics that are directed at economic growth, social progress, and democratic governance . Ideology has not disappeared—and it is still important in some countries—but it drives politics in only a very few nations where global alignments have an ideological cast . To be sure, politics across the region remain competitive and highly contentious, and partisan battles are waged on the full spectrum of issues . But, for most countries, the emphasis in recent years has been on finding practical solutions to the problems at hand . The shift may reflect the region’s economic gains and the expansion of middle class voters

IADPP ’12 (Inter-American Dialogue Policy Report; “Remaking the Relationship the United states and Latin America”; April 2012; http://www.thedialogue.org/PublicationFiles/IAD2012PolicyReportFINAL.pdf)

Pragmatic Politics Latin American countries emphasis in recent years has been on finding practical solutions to the problems at hand

Aff is not a prior question---Latin American countries want pragmatic politics---the aff fails without a solution to years of neglect

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Despite the move towards more open trade regimes, Latin American economies are still relatively closed to international trade. Under the pressure of globalisation, it is likely that in the coming years the region will need to open further and adjust to compete in an increasingly challenging global environment. Latin America being one of the most unequal regions of the world, the assessment of the trade and poverty nexus is crucial to devise policies aiming at better distributing the gains from trade. Latin America-specific research on this topic will provide policymakers and stakeholders with evidence necessary to underpin a debate which seems to be nurtured more by anxiety than rigorous knowledge. In this light, it is useful to refer to a few conclusions with the aim of building up a solid base for policy debates and future research. There is a gap in the availability of methodologies to explore the link between macro policy reforms like trade liberalisation and micro-economic determinants of welfare and poverty. It is therefore crucial to invest in the generation of data and research techniques, to adapt the research agenda to the specificity of Latin America and to consider qualitative issues that are difficult to measure. Meanwhile, normative statements referring to the trade policy nexus should cautiously consider the limitations of current positive knowledge. Trade openness, inequality and poverty are wide multidimensional concepts. Measuring and attributing causal relations among these variables without carefully qualifying the specific dimensions explored or the particular transmission mechanisms at play may be misleading. It is mportant to disentangle the specific dimension of the trade and poverty nexus from the wider debate on globalisation and financial integration, the competing concepts of relative and absolute inequality and the objective and subjective dimension of poverty and deprivation. Despite the impossibility to rigorously and unambiguously assert that trade openness is conducive to growth and poverty reduction, the preponderance of evidence supports this conclusion. However, the majority of empirical macro studies also show that the impact of trade on growth and poverty is also generally small and that the causes of indigence are to be found elsewhere. But it is in fact extremely arduous to find evidence that supports the notion that trade protection is good for the poor. The question is therefore how to make trade and growth more pro-poor and not how to devise improbable alternatives to trade integration aiming at improving the livelihood of the poor. Specific evidence on Latin America reveals that deductive generalisations of the neoclassical trade theory and global cross-country empirical studies may be of little help in understanding the trade and poverty nexus in the region. Several factors may explain why the integration of Latin America into the global economy may not necessarily bring about rising wages of unskilled workers and poverty reduction. The most compelling arguments are related to the existence of rigidities in the labour markets, the historical pattern of protection that created rents in unskilled intensive sectors, the emergence of low wage countries such as China and India that shifts the comparative advantage of Latin American economies, and institutional factors that protract the effects of an initial unequal distribution of factor endowments against the poor. Trade liberalisation may in fact be associated with rising inequality. But country case studies present contrasting indications. Although there is some evidence of rising inequality in the aftermath of trade opening, such as in the case of Mexico, Colombia, Argentina and Chile, it seems that the specific effects of trade liberalisation are small or indirect. Skill-biased technical change, often directly related with the increase of foreign direct investment or with capital account liberalisation, seems to have a stronger explanatory power than trade liberalisation. There is also little evidence that trade opening has generated more informality. On the other hand, the case of Brazil, where trade liberalisation seems to have contributed to the reduction of wage inequality, is illustrative of the conditions under which trade reforms may have progressive distributive effects The empirical analysis addressing the direct effect of trade integration on poverty reveals a similar landscape. Trade integration seems to be good for the poor but the effects are small. Generalisations should be taken with a great deal of caution because this is a domain where data may present considerable shortcomings. In any event it seems that foreign trade reforms are more important for poverty reduction than unilateral ones or than the national component of reciprocal trade reforms. The countries of the region may therefore expect further contributions of trade integration to poverty reduction, particularly from the liberalisation of the agriculture sector where the greatest pockets of residual protectionism are still concentrated. However, predicting ex ante the pro-poor effects of trade reforms is an extremely sensitive task highly dependent on the quality of the data and the correct specification of the simulation instruments. It is hard to overstate the importance of strengthening the capacity of policymaking in this area.

Giordano and Li 12 [November 2012, Paolo, PhD in Economics from the Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris, Lead Economist at the Integratoin and Trade Sector of the IADB, and Kun, Research Fellow at IADB, “An Updated Assessment of the Trade and Poverty Nexus in Latin America,” pages 375-377, http://www.iadb.org/en/publications/publication-detail,7101.html?id=67029]

Latin America being one of the most unequal regions of the world, the assessment of the trade and poverty nexus is crucial to devise policies aiming at better distributing the gains from trade. Latin America-specific research will provide policymakers with evidence necessary to underpin a debate which seems to be nurtured more by anxiety than rigorous knowledge. it is useful to refer to policy debates and future research It is crucial to invest in the generation of data and research techniques, to adapt the research agenda to the specificity of Latin America Trade openness, inequality and poverty are wide multidimensional concepts. Measuring and attributing causal relations among these variables without carefully qualifying the specific dimensions explored or the particular transmission mechanisms at play may be misleading. Despite the impossibility to unambiguously assert that trade openness is conducive to poverty reduction, the preponderance of evidence supports this conclusion it is extremely arduous to find evidence that supports the notion that trade protection is good for the poor. The question is therefore how to make trade and growth more pro-poor and not how to devise improbable alternatives to trade integration aiming at improving the livelihood of the poor deductive generalisations of the neoclassical trade theory and global cross-country empirical studies may be of little help in understanding the trade and poverty nexus in the region Trade liberalisation may be associated with inequality. But case studies present contrasting indications the specific effects of trade liberalisation are small or indirect. Skill-biased technical change, often directly related with the increase of foreign direct investment or with capital account liberalisation, seems to have a stronger explanatory power than trade liberalisation the case of Brazil, where trade liberalisation seems to have contributed to the reduction of wage inequality, is illustrative empirical analysis reveals Trade integration seems to be good for the poor Generalisations should be taken with a great deal of caution predicting effects is dependent on data and specification of the simulation It is hard to overstate the importance of policymaking in this area

Specific pragmatic reforms are key in Latin America

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One of the founding premises of this special issue and the conference with which it began is that Foucault has been read, and used, in different ways in different academic disciplines. In this article I will discuss one common way of using Foucault’s thought in my own discipline of anthropology. I will suggest that the strategy of using Foucauldian modes of analysis to ‘critique power’ (as it is often put) has frequently led to a rather sterile form of political engagement. Attention to some of Foucault’s own remarks about politics hints at a different political sensibility, in which empirical experimentation rather than moralistic denunciation takes center place. I will reference some examples of such experimentation that come out of my current research on the politics of social assistance in southern Africa (though I do not have space here to give a full exposition of these). The sort of use of Foucault that I have in mind is well represented in the anthropology of development (and the related field of what is sometimes called critical development studies). Here, the characteristic strategy is to use Foucauldian analysis to reveal the way that interventions, projects, etc., which claim to be merely technical or benevolent, really involve relations of power. This is a perfectly reasonable thing to do, but too often, in this field, such a simple demonstration is apparently seen as the end of the exercise. Power has been ‘critiqued’, an oppressive system has been exposed as such, and that seems to be taken as a satisfactory end to the matter. This impasse in development studies and anthropology is related, I think, to a wider predicament that progressive or left politics seems to find itself in today. The predicament is that the left seems increasingly to be defined by a series of gestures of refusal – what I call ‘the antis’ (anti-globalization, anti-neo-liberalism, anti-privatization, anti-Bush, sometimes even anti-capitalism – but always ‘anti’, never ‘pro’). The current world system, the politics of the ‘anti-’ points out, rests on inequality and exploitation. The global poor are being screwed, while the rich are benefiting. The powerless are getting the short end of the stick. This is all perfectly true, of course, if not terribly illuminating. But such lines of argument typically have very little to propose by way of an alternative ‘art of government’. Governing is exercising power over others, which is what the powerful do to the downtrodden. It appears as something to be resisted or denounced, not improved or experimented with. My first observation about this sort of analysis is that it rests on what seems tome a very un-Foucauldian idea of the political. Foucault did, certainly, valorize certain forms of resistance, and worked tirelessly to undermine and denaturalize taken-for-granted arrangements of power. But he never suggested that power ought not be exercised, or that it was illegitimate for someto seek to govern the conduct of others.On the contrary, he repeatedly insisted that it made no sense (in his scheme of things) to wish for a world without power.1 Naive readings of Foucault turned his skeptical analytics of power into a simple denunciation. Thus the question (once posed to him by an interviewer) of whether it would be an intolerable use of power for a parent to prevent a child from scribbling on the walls of a house. Foucault’s instructive answer was: If I accepted the picture of power that is frequently adopted – namely, that it’s something horrible and repressive for the individual – it’s clear that preventing a child from scribbling would be an unbearable tyranny. But that’s not it. I say that power is a relation. A relation in which one guides the behavior of others. And there’s no reason why this manner of guiding the behavior of others should not ultimately have results which are positive, valuable, interesting, and so on. If I had a kid, I assure you he would not write on the walls – or if he did, it would be against my will. The very idea! (Foucault, 1988a: 11–13) In the same interview, he complained of those who . . . think I’m a sort of radical anarchist who has an absolute hatred of power. No! What I’m trying to do is to approach this extremely important and tangled phenomenon in our society, the exercise of power, with the most reflective, and I would say prudent, attitude. . . . To question the relations of power in the most scrupulous and attentive manner possible, looking into all the domains of its exercise, that’s not the same thing as constructing a mythology of power as the beast of the apocalypse. (ibid.: 11–13) In fact, Foucault was as fascinated and attracted by power as he was by resistance, and his fundamental concern was with how (not whether) power is exercised. This led him, naturally enough, to the problem of government, which he inevitably took up as a pragmatic puzzle. Some contemporary practitioners of what I have termed ‘Foucauldian critique’ seem to think it is some sort of scandal that people should be governed at all – supposing it to be somehow illegitimate that some should seek to guide the conduct of others. But Foucault took a deep and largely sympathetic interest in the development of what he called ‘arts of government’. Indeed, he once suggested (in a provocative set of remarks on neo-liberalism) that while the right had, in the mid- to late 20th century, invented powerful new arts of government, the left had suffered from the ‘absence of a socialist art of government’, and a historic failure to develop an ‘autonomous governmentality’ comparable to liberalism (Foucault, 2008: 93–4). This observation leads to a question that must be a central one for what I am here terming ‘Foucauldian politics’. That is: What might a genuinely ‘left’ art of government look like? And where might we find the specific governmental techniques and rationalities that might enable such an art? Looking at the world as a whole – and especially at the poorest and most disadvantaged parts of it, in which both I and my discipline have long taken a special interest – it seems evident that we can only answer such questions if we are willing to question some of the foundational assumptions that have dominated left thought throughout the last century or more. Let me cite just two reasons for this. First, in much of the world (and especially in the poorest parts of it), formal wage labor does not play the central role that so much left thought ascribes to it. The semimythical figure of the proletarian was, of course, at the heart of ideologies of state socialism, even as the extraction of labor was foundational to its political economy. But the ‘able bodied worker’ was hardly less central to the workings of social democracies and welfare states, where Keynesian policies implied a kind of pact between capital and labor, mediated by the state. ‘Society’, in such a scheme, was grounded on the (normatively male) wage earning worker and ‘his family’, while ‘social welfare’ intervention was available for those left outside the security of labor (whether through injury, old age, or periodic dips in the business cycle). Insurance rationality provided the technical means for universalizing certain sorts of social citizenship (at the level of the nation-state) on the basis of the non-universal (but sufficiently widespread) social condition of wage labor. This template never really applied very well to Africa, where wage laborers have always been a small minority of the population. And it applies even less well today, when economic restructuring and de-industrialization have meant that formal wage employment is ever more the exception than the rule. In the rapidly expanding cities of today’s Africa, the great mass of the population is not ‘employed’ in the usual sense of the word, and increasingly lacks connections (or rights) to land as well. Neither workers nor peasants, they dwell in the socalled ‘informal economy’, eking out a meagre survival through an impressive range of improvised bits of this and that (cf. Davis, 2007). The poverty of our analytical vocabulary in describing such people and their way of life (Are they ‘the lumpen’? ‘The youth’? ‘The informal’ – whatever that means?) ismatched by our inability to conceive of forms of politics that would given them a central place. Certainly, the old left strategy of dismissing such people as a residual and degenerate fringe (Marx’s ‘lumpenproletariat’) can hardly suffice when we are talking (as we often are today) about the majority of the population. The second challenge I wish to note to conventional left thinking is the rise of forms of social assistance that bypass nation-states. The usual left stance identifies ‘neo-liberalism’ as the enemy of the state, and thus of such social goods as welfare and pensions. But in much of Africa, most forms of ‘social assistance’ are funded and implemented by non-state agencies. This has long been the case, in many areas, thanks to the key role of Christian missions in providing education, health care and other social services from the colonial era onward. The NGO revolution of the recent decades has only accentuated the pattern, to the point where many of the key governmental relations that servicer eceiving Africans have are not with state bureaucracies, but with NGOs funded by transnational philanthropic foundations. The most common left response to this transnationalization of ‘the social’ has been to oppose such developments (again, the ‘anti’), and to defend the sovereignty of African states, which are imagined as being (at least potentially) the agents of development and resistors of imperialism. Such stances have sometimes been justified, but they have not led to very effective forms of politics. Might another sort of left politics not be possible – one that would look forward and try to identify new possibilities and openings in the current transnational regime, instead of looking back to an (often misremembered or idealized) era of sovereign ‘developmental states’? And (crucially for my purposes here), might it not be possible to identify or discover new ‘arts of government’ that might take advantage of (rather than simply fighting against) recent transformations in the spatial organization of government and social assistance? This is the sort of rethinking that will be necessary if we are to get beyond the politics of the ‘anti’ and arrive at a convincing response to Foucault’s challenge to develop a true left art of government. Such rethinking will have to be willing to decenter the two sacred touchstones of 20th-century progressive politics – the worker and the nation-state – while finding or reinventing techniques of government that can gain traction in settings where most of ‘the masses’ are not workers, and most social services are not delivered by states. In such circumstances, simply attacking ‘neo-liberalism’ and defending ‘the welfare state’ is not terribly helpful. What is needed instead is a revitalized notion of the political good – and of what ‘social assistance’ might mean in a world where so many of the assumptions of the Keynesian welfare state no longer obtain. In matters of ‘social policy’, Foucault’s 1983 observation remains true nearly a quarter-century later: We are still bound up with an outlook that was formed between 1920 and 1940, mainly under the influence of Beveridge, a man who was born over a hundred years ago. For the moment . . . we completely lack the intellectual tools necessary to envisage in new terms the form in which we might attain what we are looking for. (Foucault, 1988b: 166) My recent work is concerned with empirical domains in which some of the conceptual innovation that Foucault called for may be under way. Perhaps the most provocative finding to date is that some of the most interesting and promising new forms of government being devised seem to be taking market mechanisms that we are used to associating with neo-liberalism, and putting them to new political uses. Consider, for instance, new anti-poverty programs in southern Africa that seek to provide cash support for incomes, and thus (in theory) harness markets to the task of meeting the needs of the poor. This is happening in several African countries, but also in a great many other postcolonial states – from Brazil and Venezuela to Mexico and Bangladesh – where leftist and rightist regimes alike have seen fit to introduce policies that transfer cash directly into the hands of the poor (Fiszbein and Schady, 2009; cf. Ferguson, 2010). The South African Basic Income Grant campaign is the example I know best. This involves a proposal to deal with a crisis of persistent poverty by providing a small unconditional minimum monthly payment to all. The argument goes like this: markets are not working for poor people because they are too poor to participate in them. Government programs are not working for them because the state is inefficient. So: provide income support directly, in the form of cash, then say to the poor: ‘You are now empowered to solve your own problems in the way you see best.’ In contrast to older forms of ‘welfare’ assistance, the claim is that such grants rely on poor people’s own ability to solve their own problems, without imposing the policing, paternalism and surveillance of the traditional welfare state. The ‘social’ of the social welfare state is largely discarded, in this scheme. Assistance is largely decoupled from familistic assumptions and insurance rationality alike, while the state is imagined as both universally engaged (as a kind of direct provider for each and every citizen) and maximally disengaged (taking no real interest in shaping the conduct of those under its care, who are seen as knowing their own needs better than the state does). (See Standing and Samson, 2003; Barchiesi, 20007; Ferguson, 2007.) Similar new lines of thought are visible in recent campaigns for an increased role for direct cash transfers in many forms of social and humanitarian policy. For instance, an increasingly influential argument in the area of humanitarian assistance maintains that hunger is best dealt with by boosting the purchasing power of those at risk, rather than by distributing food aid. The current international food aid system involves taking excess grain (produced under subsidized conditions in rich countries) and transporting it to places (largely in Africa) where people are at risk of hunger. Following Amartya Sen, critics have long noted the perverse effects of this: depressing producer prices for local farmers, and damaging the local institutions for producing and distributing food crops. Once food aid has arrived, local food production often never recovers, and the ‘temporary’ crisis becomes permanent. As an alternative, Sen’s followers have pushed for cash payments to be made directly to those at risk of food deficit. People with money in their pockets, Sen points out, do not starve. And the economic chain of events that is set in motion by boosting purchasing power leads (through market forces) to increased capacity for local production and distribution (Sen, 1983; Dreze and Sen, 1991). The argument recalls Jane Guyer’s groundbreaking work on feeding African cities (1989). Consider, Guyer suggests, how food ends up in bellies in the vast mega-cities of West Africa such as Lagos. The logistical task of moving thousands of tons of food each day fromthousands of local producers to millions of urban consumerswould be beyond the organizational capacity of any state (to say nothing of the less-than-exemplary Nigerian one). Here, market mechanisms, drawing on the power of vast self-organizing networks, are very powerful, and very efficient. Such forms of organization must appear especially attractive where states lack capacity (and let us remember how many progressive dreams in Africa have crashed on the rocks of low state capacity). Why should relying on this sort of mechanism be inherently right-wing? Well, the answer is obvious: markets serve only those with purchasing power. But the food aid example shows a way of redirecting markets toward the poor, by intervening not to restrict the market, but to boost purchasing power. I have become convinced that (at least in the case of food aid) this is good public policy. Is it also neo-liberal? Perhaps that is not the right question. Let us rather ask: Are there specific sorts of social policy that might draw on characteristic neo-liberal ‘moves’ (like using markets to deliver services) that would also be genuinely pro-poor? That seems to me a question worth asking. It seems clear that the governmental programs I have discussed here do draw on recognizably neo-liberal elements (including the valorization of market efficiency, individual choice and autonomy; themes of entrepreneurship; and skepticism about the state as a service provider).2 But those who advocate and fight for these policies would insist that they are, in fact ‘pro-poor’, and that they are ways of fighting against (rather than capitulating to) the growing inequality that recent ‘neo-liberal’ economic restructuring has produced. These claims, I think, are not easily dismissed. And this, in turn, raises the fascinating possibility that the ‘neo-liberal’ and the ‘pro-poor’ may not be so automatically opposed as we are used to supposing. What is of special interest here is the way that certain sorts of new progressive initiatives may involve not simply ‘opposing the neo-liberal project’, but appropriating key mechanisms of neo-liberal government for different ends. This does not mean that these political projects are therefore suspect – ‘contaminated’ by their association with neo-liberal rationality. Rather, it means that they are appropriating certain characteristic neo-liberal ‘moves’ (and I think of these discursive and programmatic moves as analogous to the moves one might make in a game) that while recognizably ‘neo-liberal’, can be used for quite different purposes than that term usually implies. As I have argued in a related paper (Ferguson, 2010), this situation may be analogous to the way that statistical techniques that were developed in the 19th century for calculating the probabilities of workplace injuries eventually became building blocks of the insurance techniques that enabled the rise of the welfare state. Such techniques were originally developed in the 19th century by large employers to control costs, but they eventually became the technical basis for social insurance, and ultimately helped enable unprecedented gains for the working class across much of the world (Ewald, 1986). Techniques have no necessary loyalty to the political program within which they were developed, and mechanisms of government that were invented to serve one purpose can easily enough be appropriated for surprising other uses. ‘Market’ techniques of government such as those I have discussed were, like workplace statistics, undoubtedly conservative in their original uses. But it seems at least possible that they may be in the process of being creatively appropriated, and repurposed for different and more progressive sorts of ends. To be sure: we need to be skeptical about the facile idea that problems of poor people can be solved simply by inviting them to participate in markets and enterprise. Such claims (which often ascribe almost magical transformative powers to such unlikely vehicles as ‘social entrepreneurship’ or ‘microcredit’) are almost always misleading, and often fraudulent. But it would be a mistake to dismiss the coupling of pro-poor social policy with market mechanisms out of hand, out of a reflexive sense that the latter are ‘neo-liberal’ and thus ‘bad’. Again, my interest here is in the potential mobility of a set of governmental devices. These devices originated within a neo-liberal project that deserves all the criticism it gets. But they may be in the process of being redeployed in creative ways. If so, some emergent political initiatives that might appear at first blush to be worryingly ‘neo-liberal’ may, on closer inspection, amount to something a good deal more hopeful. This leaves us with a politics that requires more of us than simply denouncing neo-liberalism. The political demands and policy measures I have mentioned here (whether conditional cash transfers, basic income, or cash-based food aid) do not merit, I think, either wholesale denunciation or uncritical acceptance. Instead, they call on us to remain skeptical and vigilant, but also curious and hopeful. They leave us less with strong opinions than with the sense that we need to think about them a bit more, and learn a bit more about the specific empirical effects that they may produce. Are cash transfers, for instance, a device for demobilizing the poor (as some traditional Marxists claim) – effectively buying the political quiescence of those who have the most to gain from radical social change for a paltry sum? Or do they have the contrary effect, as many proponents of basic income argue – opening up a new space of mobilization and political demand by radically decoupling labor and consumption and opening a new domain of decommodification? This is not a question to be answered theoretically or ideologically; the only answer that really convinces is the empirical and experimental one: Let us find out! Such a stance, I suggest, brings us much closer toward a truly Foucauldian politics. For politics, for Foucault, was always more about experimentation than denunciation. In an interview on social security, Foucault insisted that what was required for a progressive rethinking of social policy was not a theoretically derived ‘line’, but, as he put it, ‘a certain empiricism’. We have to transform the field of social institutions into a vast experimental field, in such a way as to decide which taps need turning, which bolts need to be loosened here or there, to get the desired change. . . . What we have to do . . . is to increase the experiments wherever possible in this particularly interesting and important area of social life. (Foucault, 1988b: 165) What this implies is a form of politics that has less to do with critique and denunciation than with experimentation and assessment. It is a matter not of refusing power, but rather exercising it in a way that would be provisional, reversible, and open to surprise. If we are indeed to arrive at viable left ‘arts of government’, we will need to be open to the unexpected, ready to ‘increase the experiments wherever possible’, and attentive to the ways that governmental techniques originally deployed for nefarious purposes can be appropriated toward other ends. To do this, we will need to forgo the pleasures of the easy, dismissive critique, and instead turn a keen and sympathetic eye toward the rich world of actual social and political practice, the world of tap-turning and experimentation. That is a world still full of invention and surprise, where the landscape of political possibility and constraint that we have come to take for granted is being redrawn, even as we speak.

Ferguson ’10 [2010, James, Stanford anthropology chair and professor, “Toward a left art of government: from ‘Foucauldian critique’ to Foucauldian politics”,History of the Human Sciences 2011 24: 61, SAGE]

. I will suggest the analysis to ‘critique power’ has frequently led to a rather sterile form of political engagement. the characteristic strategy is reveal the way that interventions which claim technical or benevolent really involve relations of too often , such a simple demonstration is apparently seen as the end of the exercise. Power has been ‘critiqued’, an oppressive system has been exposed as such, and that seems to be taken as a satisfactory end to the matte The predicament is that the left seems increasingly to be defined by a series of gestures of refusal – what I call ‘the antis’ (anti-globalization, anti-neo-liberalism always ‘anti’, never ‘pro’ such lines of argument typically have very little to propose by way of an alternative ‘art of government’. It appears as something to be resisted or denounced, not improved or experimented with. In fact, Foucault was as fascinated and attracted by power as he was by resistance, and his fundamental concern was with how (not whether) power is exercised. This led him, naturally enough, to the problem of government, which he inevitably took up as a pragmatic puzzle contemporary practitioners think it is some sort of scandal that people should be governed at all he once suggested that while the right invented powerful new arts of government, the left had suffered from the ‘absence of a socialist art of government’, and a historic failure to develop an ‘autonomous governmentality’ comparable to liberalism : What might a genuinely ‘left’ art of government look like? And where might we find the specific governmental techniques and rationalities that might enable such an art First, in much of the world formal wage labor does not play the central role that so much left thought ascribes to it And it applies even less well today, when economic restructuring and de-industrialization have meant that formal wage employment is ever more the exception than the rule. The second challenge I wish to note to conventional left thinking is the rise of forms of social assistance that bypass nation states The most common left response to this transnationalization of ‘the social’ has been to oppose such developments (again, the ‘anti’), and to defend the sovereignty o states . Such stances have sometimes been justified, but they have not led to very effective forms of politics. Might another sort of left politics not be possible – one that would look forward and try to identify new possibilities and openings in the current transnational regime, instead of looking back to an (often misremembered or idealized) era of sovereign ‘developmental states’? And (crucially for my purposes here), might it not be possible to identify or discover new ‘arts of government’ that might take advantage of (rather than simply fighting against) recent transformations in the spatial organization of government and social assistance? Such rethinking will have to be willing to decenter the two sacred touchstones of 20th-century progressive politics – the worker and the nation-state – while finding or reinventing techniques of government that can gain traction in settings where most of ‘the masses’ are not workers, and most social services are not delivered by states. In such circumstances, simply attacking ‘neo-liberalism’ is not terribly helpful Perhaps the most provocative finding to date is that some of the most interesting and promising new forms of government being devised seem to be taking market mechanisms that we are used to associating with neo-liberalism and putting them to new political use Why should relying on this sort of mechanism be inherently right-wing? markets serve only those with purchasing power. the food aid example shows a way of redirecting markets toward the poor have become convinced that (at least in the case of food aid) this is good public policy. Is it also neo-liberal? Perhaps that is not the right question Are there specific sorts of social policy that might draw on characteristic neo-liberal ‘moves’ that would also be genuinely pro-poor It seems clear that the governmental programs I have discussed here do draw on recognizably neo-liberal elements But those who advocate and fight for these policies would insist that they are, in fact ‘pro-poor’ And this, in turn, raises the fascinating possibility that the ‘neo-liberal’ and the ‘pro-poor’ may not be so automatically opposed as we are used to supposing. What is of special interest here is the way that certain sorts of new progressive initiatives may involve not simply ‘opposing the neo-liberal project’, but appropriating key mechanisms of neo-liberal government for different ends. This does not mean that these political projects are therefore suspect – ‘contaminated’ by their association with neo-liberal rationality. Rather, it means that they are appropriating certain characteristic neo-liberal ‘moves’ (and I think of these discursive and programmatic moves as analogous to the moves one might make in a game) that while recognizably ‘neo-liberal’, can be used for quite different purposes than that term usually implies. To be sure: we need to be skeptical about the facile idea that problems of poor people can be solved simply by inviting them to participate in markets and enterprise it would be a mistake to dismiss the coupling of pro-poor social policy with market mechanisms out of hand, out of a reflexive sense that the latter are ‘neo-liberal’ and thus ‘bad’ If so, some emergent political initiatives that might appear at first blush to be worryingly ‘neo-liberal’ may, on closer inspection, amount to something a good deal more hopeful. This leaves us with a politics that requires more of us than simply denouncing neo-liberalism What this implies is a form of politics that has less to do with critique and denunciation than with experimentation and assessment. It is a matter not of refusing power, but rather exercising it in a way that would be provisional, reversible, and open to surprise. If we are indeed to arrive at viable left ‘arts of government’, we will need to be open to the unexpected, ready to ‘increase the experiments wherever possible’, and attentive to the ways that governmental techniques originally deployed for nefarious purposes can be appropriated toward other ends. To do this, we will need to forgo the pleasures of the easy, dismissive critique, and instead turn a keen and sympathetic eye toward the rich world of actual social and political practice

The affirmatives rejection fails—it makes political action impossible—a pragmatic attack against neoliberalism solves best

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Northwestern (NHSI)

Case Negatives

2013

The confrontation of two views of modern capitalism – neoliberal capitalism and state capitalism - will determine the social market economy that forms the New Pragmatism in the future. Even the International Monetary Fund, for many years the hub of economic orthodoxy, admits that policy should be focused on increasing tax revenue, rather than on cutting budget expenditure (at cost of socioeconomic inequality). How to reconcile the practical approach with an approach which is fundamentally principled? Is it possible to practice economic pragmatism and remain a man of principle? Is it worth it? It is, indeed, both possible and worthwhile. If we want to live in a world of peace and harmonious development – and we certainly do – new values must be introduced to the process of economic reproduction, however without disregarding the requirements of pragmatism, which is a fundamental and indispensable feature of rational economic management. We need to adopt a more pragmatic approach, favoring multiculturalism and one emanating from a system of values that promote participatory globalization, social cohesion and sustainable development. There is no contradiction, as the core values underlying the social management process and its economic purposes are concordant to a large extent. The most important aspect of the two approaches is a balanced, long-term socio-economic development. Its equilibrium should be three-fold: (1) sustainable economic growth, or growth associated with goods and capital markets, as well as investment, finance and labor; (2) socially sustainable growth, or growth associated with a fair, socially acceptable distribution of income and an appropriate participation of the main population groups in basic public services; (3) environmentally sustainable growth, or growth associated with maintaining adequate relations between our economic activity and nature. Therefore, we do not have to sacrifice basic principles on the altar of short-term economic matters or tactical issues but, instead, adapt practical strategic activities to these principles. This imperative charts the evolutionary path for the political economy of the future.

Kolodko ‘13 [January 25th, 2013, Grzegorz, Professor and expert on economic policy, “The New Pragmatism and the Future of World Economy”, http://www.economonitor.com/blog/2013/01/the-new-pragmatism-and-the-future-of-world-economy/]

The confrontation of two views of modern capitalism – neoliberal capitalism and state capitalism - will determine the social market economy that forms the New Pragmatism in the future. How to reconcile the practical approach with an approach which is fundamentally principled Is it possible to practice economic pragmatism and remain a man of principle? If we want to live in a world of peace new values must be introduced to the process of economic reproduction, however without disregarding the requirements of pragmatism, which is a fundamental and indispensable feature of rational economic management We need to adopt a more pragmatic approach, favoring multiculturalism and one emanating from a system of values that promote participatory globalization, social cohesion and sustainable development the core values underlying the social management process and its economic purposes are concordant to a large extent The of the two approaches balanced, long-term socio-economic development. Its equilibrium should be three-fold sustainable economic growth socially sustainable growth fair, socially acceptable distribution of income and an appropriate participation environmentally sustainable growth associated with maintaining adequate relations between our economic activity and nature we do not have to sacrifice basic principles on the altar of short-term economic matters or tactical issues but, instead, adapt practical strategic activities to these principles This imperative charts the evolutionary path for the political economy of the future.

Pragmatic approach is key

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Case Negatives

2013

The U.S.-Mexico relationship is among the most important and complex bilateral relationships in the world. The plethora of issues, actors, and stakeholders add political challenges to what at times appear to be common sense, win-win solutions. Such complexity should not lead to fatalism, but rather creative and intensive joint problem solving. Within the broad array of voices that take interest in the relationship, there exists the potential for alliances and coalitions powerful enough to overcome opposition and to achieve significant advances. Right now, during the recovery from joint economic crises, cooperation to create jobs and strengthen the competitiveness of regional manufacturers offers a tremendous opportunity and should be at the center of the bilateral agenda. Prioritizing measures to enhance trade and reactivating the alliance between the private sectors of the United States and Mexico could change the tone and politics of the relationship. The security challenges faced by each country are real and unavoidable. They should be prioritized, yet balanced with an agenda based on economic opportunity and shared prosperity. The definition and implementation of new, more focused security strategies designed to reduce violence and strengthen the rule of law, within a framework of shared responsibility, may bring new energy and popular support to a difficult ongoing issue. Political spaces may be opening for each nation to tackle what are in political terms primarily domestic issues, despite their significant regional implications. The major decline in illegal immigration and corresponding improvement in border security in the United States presents a new starting point for discussions of comprehensive immigration reform. Along similar lines, a burgeoning pragmatism toward the development of petroleum resources in Mexico could change the parameters of the debate on energy reform. Progress in either Mexico or the United States on these seemingly intractable issues could breathe new energy into the bilateral relationship, and each side should seek to capitalize on any potential developments. Partisan politics generally loom large in election years, and 2012 is no different for the United States or Mexico. The truth is that there will be real political limitations on what the winner of each election can do, but if there is a lesson from the history of U.S.-Mexico relations, it is that an inclusive process of strategic planning can generate sound ideas and strengthen the political will to seek real advances. This is precisely why the Wilson Center and The Annenberg Retreat at Sunnylands came together: to stimulate this process. The ideas presented in this document are based on the observation that Mexico, the United States, and the global context have all undergone major transformations since the last time the two countries had simultaneous election years in 2000.

Acosta et al. ‘12 [April 1st, 2012, Mariaclaire, Project Director, Freedom House – Mexico, Bill Bratton, Chairman, Kroll Advisory Solutions, former Chief of the Los Angeles Police Department and former New York City Police Commissioner, Geo­rey Cowan, President, The Annenberg Foundation Trust at Sunnylands, John Engler, President, Business Roundtable, former Governor of Michigan, Rafael Fernández de Castro Chair, Department of International Studies, Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México, former Foreign Policy Advisor to President Calderón Michael Govan, CEO and Wallis Annenberg Director, Los Angeles County Museum of Art, Jane Harman, Director, President, and CEO, Wilson Center, former Member of Congress, Carlos Heredia, Director of International Studies, Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas, CIDE, former Member of Congress, Phil Heymann, James Barr Ames Professor of Law, Harvard Law School, former Deputy Attorney General, Barry Jackson, Chief of Staff to the Speaker of the House John Boehner, Enrique Krauze, Historian and Essayist, Founder and Editor-in-Chief of Letras Libres, Isaac Lee, President, News, Univision Communications Inc., Emilio Lozoya, Chairman, JFH Lozoya Investments, Mel Martinez, Chairman, Florida, Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean for JPMorgan Chase & Co., Chairman, JPMorgan Chase Foundation, Doris Meissner, Senior Fellow, Migration Policy Institute, former Commissioner of Immigration and Naturalization Service “Policy Recommendations for U.S.-Mexico Relations” Annenberg Retreat with the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, http://sunnylands.org/files/posts/159/stronger_f.pdf]

The U.S.-Mexico relationship is among the most important and complex bilateral relationships in the world. The plethora of issues, actors, and stakeholders add political challenges to what at times appear to be common sense, win-win solutions. Such complexity should not lead to fatalism, but rather creative and intensive joint problem solving Within the broad array of voices that take interest in the relationship, there exists the potential for alliances and coalitions powerful enough to overcome opposition and to achieve significant advances Prioritizing measures to enhance trade and reactivating the alliance between the private sectors of the United States and Mexico could change the tone and politics of the relationship. Political spaces may be opening for each nation to tackle what are in political terms primarily domestic issues, despite their significant regional implications a burgeoning pragmatism toward the development of petroleum resources in Mexico could change the parameters of the debate on energy reform Progress in either Mexico or the United States on these seemingly intractable issues could breathe new energy into the bilateral relationship each side should seek to capitalize on any potential developments. if there is a lesson from the history of U.S.-Mexico relations, it is that an inclusive process of strategic planning can generate sound ideas and strengthen the political will to seek real advances.

Pragmatic action is key in the context of Mexico

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Case Negatives

2013

Based on my review of the literature and indicators, the chief areas to which policy attention should be directed are therefore underinvestment in business R&D, low quality public sector research institutions and their weak links to industry, and generally low government support for R&D. The literature has identified the reasons for underinvestment (and a correspondingly high rate of return to private R&D) as the following: 1) difficulties in obtaining finance; 2) weak intellectual property protection, and 3) possibly barriers to new firm entry. There is some controversy over the second factor, since many of the successful development stories during the past 30 years took place without strong IP rights and were facilitated by imitation strategies, at least in their initial stages.

Hall ‘5 (Bronwyn H. Hall- Prof. of Economics at UC Berkeley; “Government Policy for Innovation in Latin America”; May 2005; http://elsa.berkeley.edu/~bhhall/papers/BHH05_LAC_innov.pdf)

the chief areas to which policy attention should be directed are underinvestment in business R&D low quality public sector research institutions and generally low government support for R&D

Topical versions of the aff

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Case Negatives

2013

There are clear signs that the era of the Washington Consensus and neoliberal economics in Latin America is drawing to a close. The optimism about economic development of the early 1990s has receded, and a slow but perceptible political backlash has set in. A series of political events has occurred that represents, at least in part, an intensification of popular dissatisfaction with the reigning economic model. These include the election of Hugo Chavez in Venezuela in 1998, the coup that overthrew President Jamil Mahuad in Ecuador in 2000, the Argentine debt default and street protests of December 2001, followed by the election of Nestor Kirchner in 2003, the election of Lucio Gutierrez in Ecuador in 2002, the violent protests in Bolivia in 2003 that led to the resignation of President Gonzalo Sanchez de Losada, and the election of Tabare Vasquez to the Uruguayan presidency in 2004. These events reflect the differential impact of recent economic reforms and show that in Latin America, once again, a prior consensus on economic policy is breaking down.

Margheritis and Pereira ’07 (Ana- assistant professor of international relations and Latin American politics at the University of Florida and Anthony- associate professor of political science at Tulane University; “The Neoliberal Turn in Latin America: The Cycle of Ideas and the Search for an Alternative”; Latin American Perspectives, Vol. 34, No. 3, Contested Transformation (May, 2007),pp. 25-48)

There are clear signs that the era of the Washington Consensus and neoliberal economics in Latin America is drawing to a close. A series of political events has occurred that represents, an intensification of popular dissatisfaction with the reigning economic model. These include the election of Hugo Chavez the coup that overthrew President Jamil Mahuad in Ecuador the Argentine debt default and street protests of December 2001 the election of Nestor Kirchner in 2003 the election of Lucio Gutierrez in Ecuador in 2002, the protests in Bolivia in 2003 that led to the resignation of President Gonzalo Sanchez de Losada, and the election of Tabare Vasquez to the Uruguayan presidency in 2004. These events reflect the differential impact of recent economic reforms and show that in Latin America, once again, a prior consensus on economic policy is breaking down.

Status quo solves---the era of neglect their authors describe is coming to a close

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Northwestern (NHSI)

Case Negatives

2013

It is the good news of Latin America’s progress that has most altered hemispheric relations . In the past decade, the region has posted its best economic performance in a generation and managed largely to sidestep the world financial crisis in 2008–2009 . The ranks of the middle classes have swelled .The region’s political structures have also opened up, giving way to growing participation by women, indigenous and Afro-descendant populations, and other once-excluded groups . All Latin Americans across a broadening spectrum have greater access to education and health services, consumer goods, and foreign travel . They now have real and rapidly expanding stakes in their societies. These advances have also led to new social stirrings which, along with demands and expectations, are notably on the rise . There are more and more pressures for further change and improvements .Impressive economic, political, and social progress at home has, in turn, given Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Colombia, Peru, and many other countries greater access to worldwide opportunities . Indeed, the region’s most salient transformation may be its increasingly global connections and widening international relationships .Brazil’s dramatic rise on the world stage most visibly exemplifies the shift .But other countries, too, are participating actively in global affairs and developing extensive networks of commercial and political ties . China is an increasingly prominent economic actor, but India and other Asian countries are intensifying their ties to the region as well.

IADPP ’12 (Inter-American Dialogue Policy Report; “Remaking the Relationship the United states and Latin America”; April 2012; http://www.thedialogue.org/PublicationFiles/IAD2012PolicyReportFINAL.pdf)

It is the good news of Latin America’s progress that has most altered hemispheric relations the region has posted its best economic performance in a generation and managed to sidestep the world financial crisis The ranks of the middle classes have swelled political structures have also opened up giving way to growing participation by women, indigenous and Afro-descendant populations, and other once-excluded groups Latin Americans have greater access to education and health services, consumer goods, and foreign travel Impressive economic, political, and social progress at home has given Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Colombia, Peru, and many other countries greater access to worldwide opportunities

Recent trends prove the status quo is improving---economic improvements, social progress, and political structures are better than they’ve ever been

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Case Negatives

2013

This is a common phenomenon. The Pew Research Center, in tracking attitudes in Latin America’s two biggest economies, found that in 2012 69% of people in both Brazil and Mexico had a favorable attitude to American music, movies, and television. But when it comes to how Americans “do business”, only 43% of Mexicans and 45% of Brazilians had a favorable view. By contrast, the most recent data indicate that favorable views of the United States have experienced a significant boost: 73% for Brazilians (up from 61% in 2012), and 66% for Mexicans (up from 56% in 2012).¶ “You can see the change in U.S. favorability ratings in Mexico in our 2013 report,” Molly Rohal of the Pew Research Center tells Nearshore Americas. “We also have trend data in the Global Indicators Database.”¶ The trend is your friend¶ Specific to Latin America, the trend data is cause for optimism, given that Latin America is a young continent, and younger people have a more positive view of the U.S. In Brazil, for example, 78% of those between 18 to 29 years of age, and 72% of those between 30 to 49, had a positive view of US popular culture. In Mexico, the percentages were 79% and 70% respectively. And for those over 50 years of age? Only 55% of Brazilians had a positive view, and 57% of Mexicans.¶ But Latin America is more than Mexico and Brazil, and the greater region is experiencing an ideological divide between populist left leaning governments (Argentina, Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador, Cuba, and Nicaragua) and neo-liberal regimes embracing market reforms (Colombia, Chile, and most of Central America). The populist governments like to ratchet up the anti-US rhetoric, echoing the Cold War divide when the United States supported many repressive right wing dictatorships.¶ The irony is that the overall perceptions are not that bad, and that the lower the economic engagement with the United States, the less favorable the view. This is interesting in that “business” scores low, suggesting that there is a more general challenge faced by the private sector, and not one that is specific to U.S. businesses. In fact, when U.S. business is involved, the populace tends to have a positive view.¶ Consequently, high-contact and business friendly governments like Chile and El Salvador have favorable views, at 68% and 79%, respectively. By comparison, 55% of Bolivians see the U.S. in a favorable light. In Argentina – a country that makes a habit of rounding out the bottom of positive attitudes to the U.S. – only 41% of the population has a positive view of the U.S.¶ Other research has revealed that Latin America, as a region, has a more positive view of the United States and her people than any other. The tenth joint report by Americas Quarterly and Efecto Naím, for example, has indicated that popular support for the U.S. exists even in those countries that have populist regimes critical of the United States. And ongoing research from Latinobarómetro has shown that majorities in most Latin American countries have a positive view of the United States.¶ As with other research, Latinobarómetro has found that close economic and cultural ties build a positive experience. Trade, remittances, and investment – including in technology driven areas that involve a skilled workforce, such as Business Process and IT Outsourcing – can build goodwill.

Wilson 7-24-13 (Tim Wilson- freelance journalist for Near Shore America; “Despite Chavez and Snowden, Pro-U.S. Sentiment Grows in Latin America”; http://www.nearshoreamericas.com/chavez-snowden-latin-america-perceptions-us/)

The Pew Research Center found 69% of people in both Brazil and Mexico had a favorable attitude to American music, movies, and television the most recent data indicate favorable views of the United States have experienced a significant boost: 73% for Brazilians and 66% for Mexicans You can see the change in U.S. favorability ratings in Mexico in our 2013 report We also have trend data in the Global Indicators Database , the trend data is cause for optimism younger people have a positive view of the U.S. The populist governments like to ratchet up the anti-US rhetoric, echoing the Cold War divide when the United States supported many repressive right wing dictatorships. overall perceptions are not that bad that the lower the economic engagement with the United States, the less favorable the view. when U.S. business is involved, the populace tends to have a positive view. high-contact and business friendly governments have favorable views Latin America, as a region, has a more positive view of the United States and her people than any other popular support for the U.S. exists even in those countries that have populist regimes critical of the United States. Latinobarómetro has found that close economic and cultural ties build a positive experience. Trade, remittances, and investment – including in technology driven areas that involve a skilled workforce, such as Business Process and IT Outsourcing – can build goodwill.

Economic engagement is well received---Latin America has a favorable view of America only when we are engaging

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Case Negatives

2013

In order to achieve these broad objectives, it is important that the peoples of the member states are involved in and direct ALBA. ALBA encourages popular participation in its planning and functioning. For that purpose, it has three councils that oversee its operations. The first two councils are the presidential and ministerial councils, while the third is made up of social movements. Though this, social movements have become directly involved in the planning and administration of ALBA. Currently, some of the largest social movements in Latin America -- such as the MST and Via Campesina -- participate in ALBA through this council. Their ideas about land redistribution, free healthcare, free education, and food security have become part of ALBA's goals. ALBA not only promotes participatory democracy in its own structures, it also commits member states to implement participatory democracy within their borders. The aim of promoting participatory democracy in ALBA sets it apart from the neo-liberal "free" trade agreements that are being foisted upon poorer states by the US and the EU. Indeed, ALBA's success hinges on its ability to fulfill its aim of participatory democracy.¶ ALBA has been in existence for only four years, and yet it has already recorded a number of successes. Since 2004, Venezuela has been exchanging oil for the services of 30,000 Cuban doctors and teachers. Under this deal, Cuba has received 1 billion dollars worth of subsidized oil a year, which has allowed Cuba to improve its economy. For Venezuela, this deal has allowed it to staff the thousands of new clinics and schools that it has built. This has seen Venezuela eradicating illiteracy and providing free healthcare to millions of people.¶ Cuba and Venezuela have also used ALBA's umbrella to create 5 major agricultural projects that are producing soy beans, rice, poultry, and dairy products. The goal behind these projects is to guarantee food security in both Cuba and Venezuela. In fact, Venezuela has used these projects to provide free or subsidized food to millions of people. Venezuela has also supplied Cuba with buses to improve its public transport system, assisted Cuba with the construction of a massive aqueduct to improve its water supply, and has helped Cuba revamp its main oil refinery.

Hattingh ‘8 [July 2nd, 2008, Shawn, International Labour Research and Information Group, “ALBA: Creating a Regional Alternative to Neoliberalism?” Monthly Review, http://mrzine.monthlyreview.org/2008/hattingh070208.html]

to achieve objectives, it is important that the peoples of the member states are involved in and direct ALBA some of the largest social movements in Latin America -- such as the MST and Via Campesina -- participate in ALBA through this council. Their ideas about land redistribution, free healthcare, free education, and food security have become part of ALBA's goals. ALBA not only promotes participatory democracy in its own structures, it also commits member states to implement participatory democracy within their borders. Venezuela has been exchanging oil for the services of 30,000 Cuban doctors and teachers Cuba has received 1 billion dollars worth of subsidized oil a year, which has allowed Cuba to improve its economy. For Venezuela, this deal has allowed it to staff the thousands of new clinics and schools that it has built. This has seen Venezuela eradicating illiteracy and providing free healthcare to millions of people. Cuba and Venezuela have also used ALBA's umbrella to create 5 major agricultural projects that are producing soy beans, rice, poultry, and dairy products to guarantee food security in both Cuba and Venezuela. Venezuela has used these projects to provide free or subsidized food to millions of people Venezuela upplied Cuba with buses to improve its public transport system, assisted Cuba with the construction of a massive aqueduct to improve its water supply, and has helped Cuba revamp its main oil refinery

ALBA movements are succeeding now—their author

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Case Negatives

2013

3. There is no such thing as neoliberalism! The blind-spot in theories of neoliberalism—whether neo-Marxist and Foucauldian—comes with trying to account for how top-down initiatives ‘take’ in everyday situations. So perhaps the best thing to do is to stop thinking of “neoliberalism” as a coherent “hegemonic” project altogether. For all its apparent critical force, the vocabulary of “neoliberalism” and “neoliberalization” in fact provides a double consolation for leftist academics: it supplies us with plentiful opportunities for unveiling the real workings of hegemonic ideologies in a characteristic gesture of revelation; and in so doing, it invites us to align our own professional roles with the activities of various actors “out there”, who are always framed as engaging in resistance or contestation. The conceptualization of “neoliberalism” as a “hegemonic” project does not need refining by adding a splash of Foucault. Perhaps we should try to do without the concept of “neoliberalism” altogether, because it might actually compound rather than aid in the task of figuring out how the world works and how it changes. One reason for this is that, between an overly economistic derivation of political economy and an overly statist rendition of governmentality, stories about “neoliberalism” manage to reduce the understanding of social relations to a residual effect of hegemonic projects and/or governmental programmes of rule (see Clarke, 2004a). Stories about “neoliberalism” pay little attention to the pro-active role of socio-cultural processes in provoking changes in modes of governance, policy, and regulation. Consider the example of the restructuring of public services such as health care, education, and criminal justice in the UK over the last two or three decades. This can easily be thought of in terms of a “hegemonic” project of “neoliberalization”, and certainly one dimension of this process has been a form of anti-statism that has rhetorically contrasted market provision against the rigidities of the state. But in fact these ongoing changes in the terms of public-policy debate involve a combination of different factors that add up to a much more dispersed populist reorientation in policy, politics, and culture. These factors include changing consumer expectations, involving shifts in expectations towards public entitlements which follow from the generalization of consumerism; the decline of deference, involving shifts in conventions and hierarchies of taste, trust, access, and expertise; and the refusals of the subordinated, referring to the emergence of anti-paternalist attitudes found in, for example, women’s health movements or anti-psychiatry movements. They include also the development of the politics of difference, involving the emergence of discourses of institutional discrimination based on gender, sexuality, race, and disability. This has disrupted the ways in which welfare agencies think about inequality, helping to generate the emergence of contested inequalities, in which policies aimed at addressing inequalities of class and income develop an ever more expansive dynamic of expectation that public services should address other kinds of inequality as well (see Clarke, 2004b J. Clark, Dissolving the public realm? The logics and limits of neo-liberalism, Journal of Social Policy 33 (2004), pp. 27–48.Clarke, 2004b). None of these populist tendencies is simply an expression of a singular “hegemonic” project of “neoliberalization”. They are effects of much longer rhythms of socio-cultural change that emanate from the bottom-up. It seems just as plausible to suppose that what we have come to recognise as “hegemonic neoliberalism” is a muddled set of ad hoc, opportunistic accommodations to these unstable dynamics of social change as it is to think of it as the outcome of highly coherent political-ideological projects. Processes of privatization, market liberalization, and de-regulation have often followed an ironic pattern in so far as they have been triggered by citizens’ movements arguing from the left of the political spectrum against the rigidities of statist forms of social policy and welfare provision in the name of greater autonomy, equality, and participation (e.g. Horwitz, 1989). The political re-alignments of the last three or four decades cannot therefore be adequately understood in terms of a straightforward shift from the left to the right, from values of collectivism to values of individualism, or as a re-imposition of class power. The emergence and generalization of this populist ethos has much longer, deeper, and wider roots than those ascribed to “hegemonic neoliberalism”. And it also points towards the extent to which easily the most widely resonant political rationality in the world today is not right-wing market liberalism at all, but is, rather, the polyvalent discourse of “democracy” (see Barnett and Low, 2004). Recent theories of “neoliberalism” have retreated from the appreciation of the long-term rhythms of socio-cultural change, which Stuart Hall once developed in his influential account of Thatcherism as a variant of authoritarian populism. Instead, they favour elite-focused analyses of state bureaucracies, policy networks, and the like. One consequence of the residualization of the social is that theories of “neoliberalism” have great difficulty accounting for, or indeed even in recognizing, new forms of “individualized collective-action” (Marchetti, 2003) that have emerged in tandem with the apparent ascendancy of “neoliberal hegemony”: environmental politics and the politics of sustainability; new forms of consumer activism oriented by an ethics of assistance and global solidarity; the identity politics of sexuality related to demands for changes in modes of health care provision, and so on (see Norris, 2002). All of these might be thought of as variants of what we might want to call bottom-up governmentality. This refers to the notion that non-state and non-corporate actors are also engaged in trying to govern various fields of activity, both by acting on the conduct and contexts of ordinary everyday life, but also by acting on the conduct of state and corporate actors as well. Rose (1999, pp. 281–284) hints at the outlines of such an analysis, at the very end of his paradigmatic account of governmentality, but investigation of this phenomenon is poorly developed at present. Instead, the trouble-free amalgamation of Foucault’s ideas into the Marxist narrative of “neoliberalism” sets up a simplistic image of the world divided between the forces of hegemony and the spirits of subversion (see Sedgwick, 2003, pp. 11–12). And clinging to this image only makes it all the more difficult to acknowledge the possibility of positive political action that does not conform to a romanticized picture of rebellion, contestation, or protest against domination (see Touraine, 2001). Theories of “neoliberalism” are unable to recognize the emergence of new and innovative forms of individualized collective action because their critical imagination turns on a simple evaluative opposition between individualism and collectivism, the private and the public. The radical academic discourse of “neoliberalism” frames the relationship between collective action and individualism simplistically as an opposition between the good and the bad. In confirming a narrow account of liberalism, understood primarily as an economic doctrine of free markets and individual choice, there is a peculiar convergence between the radical academic left and the right-wing interpretation of liberal thought exemplified by Hayekian conservatism. By obliterating the political origins of modern liberalism—understood as answering the problem of how to live freely in societies divided by interminable conflicts of value, interest, and faith—the discourse of “neoliberalism” reiterates a longer problem for radical academic theory of being unable to account for its own normative priorities in a compelling way. And by denigrating the value of individualism as just an ideological ploy by the right, the pejorative vocabulary of “neoliberalism” invites us to take solace in an image of collective decision-making as a practically and normatively unproblematic procedure. The recurrent problem for theories of “neoliberalism” and “neoliberalization” is their two-dimensional view of both political power and of geographical space. They can only account for the relationship between top-down initiatives and bottom-up developments by recourse to the language of centres, peripheries, diffusion, and contingent realizations; and by displacing the conceptualization of social relations with a flurry of implied subject-effects. The turn to an overly systematized theory of governmentality, derived from Foucault, only compounds the theoretical limitations of economistic conceptualizations of “neoliberalism”. The task for social theory today remains a quite classical one, namely to try to specify “the recurrent causal processes that govern the intersections between abstract, centrally promoted plans and social life on the small scale” (Tilly, 2003, p. 345). Neither neoliberalism-as-hegemony nor neoliberalism-as-governmentality is really able to help in this task, not least because both invest in a deeply embedded picture of subject-formation as a process of “getting-at” ordinary people in order to make them believe in things against their best interests. With respect to the problem of accounting for how “hegemonic” projects of “neoliberalism” win wider consensual legitimacy, Foucault’s ideas on governmentality seem to promise an account of how people come to acquire what Ivison (1997) calls the “freedom to be formed and normed”. Over time, Foucault’s own work moved steadily away from an emphasis on the forming-and-norming end of this formulation towards an emphasis on the freedom end. This shift was itself a reflection of the realization that the circularities of poststructuralist theories of subjectivity can only be broken by developing an account of the active receptivity of people to being directed. But, in the last instance, neither the story of neoliberalism-as-hegemony or of neoliberalism-as-governmentality can account for the forms of receptivity, pro-activity, and generativity that might help to explain how the rhythms of the everyday are able to produce effects on macro-scale processes, and vice versa. So, rather than finding convenient synergies between what are already closely related theoretical traditions, perhaps it is better to keep open those tiresome debates about the degree of coherence between them, at the same time as trying to broaden the horizons of our theoretical curiosity a little more widely.

Barnett ‘5 [2005, Clive, Open University social sciences faculty, “The Consolations of ‘Neoliberalism”, Geoforum, 36.1, ScienceDirect]

The blind-spot in theories of neoliberalism comes with trying to account for how top-down initiatives ‘take’ in everyday situations. So perhaps the best thing to do is to stop thinking of “neoliberalism” as a coherent “hegemonic” project altogether. For all its apparent critical force, the vocabulary of “neoliberalism” and “neoliberalization” in fact provides a double consolation for leftist academics: it supplies us with plentiful opportunities for unveiling the real workings of hegemonic ideologies in a characteristic gesture of revelation; and in so doing, it invites us to align our own professional roles with the activities of various actors “out there”, who are always framed as engaging in resistance or contestation between an overly economistic derivation of political economy and an overly statist rendition of governmentality, stories about “neoliberalism” manage to reduce the understanding of social relations to a residual effect of hegemonic projects Stories about “neoliberalism” pay little attention to the pro-active role of socio-cultural processes what we have come to recognise as “hegemonic neoliberalism” is a muddled set of ad hoc, opportunistic accommodations to these unstable dynamics of social change Processes of privatization, market liberalization, and de-regulation have often followed an ironic pattern in so far as they have been triggered by citizens’ movements arguing from the left of the political spectrum against the rigidities of statist forms of social policy The political re-alignments of the last three or four decades cannot therefore be adequately understood in terms of a straightforward shift from the left to the right, from values of collectivism to values of individualism theories of “neoliberalism” have great difficulty accounting for, or indeed even in recognizing, new forms of “individualized collective-action” (Marchetti, 2003) that have emerged in tandem with the apparent ascendancy of “neoliberal hegemony”: environmental politics and the politics of sustainability; new forms of consumer activism oriented by an ethics of assistance and global solidarity; the identity politics of sexuality related to demands for changes in modes of health care provision, and so on (see Norris, 2002). Instead, the trouble-free amalgamation of Foucault’s ideas into the Marxist narrative of “neoliberalism” sets up a simplistic image of the world divided between the forces of hegemony and the spirits of subversion clinging to this image only makes it all the more difficult to acknowledge the possibility of positive political action that does not conform to a romanticized picture of rebellion, The radical academic discourse of “neoliberalism” frames the relationship between collective action and individualism simplistically as an opposition between the good and the bad. In confirming a narrow account of liberalism, understood primarily as an economic doctrine of free markets and individual choice, there is a peculiar convergence between the radical academic left and the right-wing interpretation of liberal thought the discourse of “neoliberalism” reiterates a longer problem for radical academic theory of being unable to account for its own normative priorities in a compelling way. And by denigrating the value of individualism as just an ideological ploy by the right, the pejorative vocabulary of “neoliberalism” invites us to take solace in an image of collective decision-making as a practically and normatively unproblematic procedure. The turn to an overly systematized theory of governmentality, derived from Foucault, only compounds the theoretical limitations of economistic conceptualizations of “neoliberalism”

Their interrogation ignores historical trends which disproves their argument

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Case Negatives

2013

US-Latin America’s policy has failed to open a new relationship and certainly has deepened US isolation. Obama has increased the degree of alienation and failed to recover hegemony. In large part for the same reason that the Bush administration failed, Washington policymakers retain as the “model”, Latin American submission to US supremacy during the “golden years” of the 1990’s. Undersecretary Arturo Valenzuela during his visit to Argentina revealed this reactionary nostalgia when he recalled the “good times” during the Menem regime (1989-1999), a period of pillage, plunder and monumental corruption, universally condemned. This gaffe provoked a storm of protest and further soured Argentine-US relations beyond what existed under Bush. Rising militarization under Obama as evidenced in the US-Colombia-Venezuela triangle is out of sync with the Latin America’s big push for greater trade diversification, higher growth and increased regional integration, including countries targeted by Obama. Chavez, despite his defense spending, fits into the Latin American pattern, looking toward greater trade with Argentina, Brazil, China, Iran while freezing trade relations with Colombia and attempting to lower dependence on the US market. The Bush-Obama policy of confrontation and intimidation to force a break between Latin America’s center-left and centrist governments and the “radicals” has boomeranged, exacerbating conflicts across a series of diplomatic and economic issues. The strategy of isolating Cuba and Venezuela has highlighted Washington’s lone vote on each occasion. Washington’s resort to a military strategy reflects its global policy but one that is out of tune with the changing priorities and political complexion of Latin regimes. As much as anything, the Obama regimes’ military position reflects the decline of economic leverage, in part a reflection of the primacy of finance over manufacturing, in part a result of the demise of the empire-centered neo-liberal ideology which greased the wheels of US hegemony. It is clear that Washington has failed to recognize that the restoration of the type of client regimes of the previous decade is a highly dubious proposition; efforts to that effect are likely to provoke greater regime and mass rejection of any overtures to ‘new relations’. Washington’s double discourse of “free trade for your markets” and “protectionism for ours” does not fly. Brazil under Lula, a staunch free marketer has said as much in the face of US tariffs on ethanol and other competitive exports. What is striking about US-Latin American relations is that the deterioration occurs at a time when the so-called center-left regimes have embraced capitalism, foreign investment, moderate regulations on capital flows, co-opted radical social movements and trade unions, retained the bulk of the dubious privatizations and the agro-mineral export model. That the US and particular the Obama regime have failed to build a new positive relationship in these eminently democratic capitalist circumstances can only be attributed to its extremism, its deep-going commitment to military driven empire building. Even in the case of Venezuela, Bolivia, Nicaragua and Ecuador, joint economic ventures with foreign capital continue to thrive; the private sector still controls the mass media, banking, agriculture, commerce and transport. Positive investment and trade relations thrive with other economic blocs including the EU and the emerging dynamic capitalist countries of China, South Africa, Russia as well as the Middle East. Chavez’ rejection of US military policies and interventionism has solid popular backing and is supported by polls in the EU and even in the US. If Washington proceeds toward a proxy war with Venezuela using Honduras as a dress rehearsal, (in addition to its overstretch today in Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan and Yemen) can it win a prolonged offensive war? A highly dubious proposition. More likely it will re-radicalize the continent and certainly turn Venezuela toward socialization of the economy and deepen its ties to radical social movements elsewhere. As it stands today, Venezuela eschews ties to radical social movements, favoring ties with social liberal and even conservative regimes willing to sign trade and investment treaties and friendly diplomatic relations.

Petras ‘10 [January 5th, 2010, James, former Professor of Sociology at Binghamton University, “U.S.-Venezuelan Relations: Imperialism and Revolution”, http://dissidentvoice.org/2010/01/u-s-venezuelan-relations-imperialism-and-revolution/]

US-Latin America’s policy has failed to open a new relationship and certainly has deepened US isolation. Obama has increased the degree of alienation and failed to recover hegemony Rising militarization under Obama is out of sync with the Latin America’s big push for greater trade diversification, higher growth and increased regional integration The Bush-Obama policy of confrontation and intimidation to force a break between Latin America’s center-left and centrist governments and the “radicals” has boomeranged, exacerbating conflicts across a series of diplomatic and economic issues strategy of isolating Cuba and Venezuela has highlighted Washington’s lone vote Washington’s resort to a military strategy reflects its global policy but one that is out of tune with the changing priorities and political complexion of Latin regimes. As much as anything, the Obama regimes’ military position reflects the decline of economic leverage It is clear that Washington has failed to recognize that the restoration of the type of client regimes of the previous decade is a highly dubious proposition; efforts to that effect are likely to provoke greater regime and mass rejection of any overtures to ‘new relations’. What is striking about US-Latin American relations is that the deterioration occurs at a time when the so-called center-left regimes have embraced capitalism, foreign investment, moderate regulations on capital flows, co-opted radical social movements and trade unions, retained the bulk of the dubious privatizations and the agro-mineral export model. That the US and particular the Obama regime have failed to build a new positive relationship in these eminently democratic capitalist circumstances can only be attributed to its extremism, its deep-going commitment to military driven empire building Even in the case of Venezuela joint economic ventures with foreign capital continue to thrive; Positive investment and trade relations thrive with other economic blocs including the EU and the emerging dynamic capitalist countries Chavez’ rejection of US military policies and interventionism has solid popular backing If Washington proceeds toward a proxy war with Venezuela it will re-radicalize the continent and certainly turn Venezuela toward socialization of the economy and deepen its ties to radical social movements elsewhere As it stands today, Venezuela eschews ties to radical social movements, favoring ties with social liberal and even conservative regimes willing to sign trade and investment treaties and friendly diplomatic relations.

Latin American governments going to capitalism now

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Case Negatives

2013

Despite the surge in antineoliberal sentiment in Latin America, it is unlikely that many environmentally significant neoliberal policies will be reversed because governments do not have the financial resources to reinstate subsidies and renationalize land and water and are unlikely to disengage from the global trading system. More probable is a search for institutional solutions that mediate the most negative social and ecological effects of free trade and less government. This might include stronger oversight of private water and fisheries, enforceable standards for forest use and industrial activities, and targeted financial assistance from government, international institutions, and nongovernmental organizations to certain ecological regions or social groups. This suggests a need for more empirical and comparative studies that assess what policies and institutions best sustain landscapes and livelihoods in particular places, especially under pressures of global integration and in the context of local conditions.

Liverman and Vilas ‘6 [November 2006, Diana, Professor of Environmental Science at Oxford University, Silvina, Professor of Environmental Science at Oxford University, “Neoliberalism and the Environment in Latin America,” Annual Review of Environment and Resources, vol. 31, http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1081964]

Despite the surge in antineoliberal sentiment in Latin America, it is unlikely that many significant neoliberal policies will be reversed because governments do not have the resources to reinstate subsidies and renationalize land and water and are unlikely to disengage from the global trading system. More probable is a search for institutional solutions that mediate the most negative social and ecological effects of free trade and less government. This might include targeted financial assistance from government institutions to certain groups. This suggests a need for more empirical studies that assess policies and institutions in the context of local conditions

Impacts are inevitable---no shift from neolib

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Case Negatives

2013

There are compelling reasons for the United States and Latin America to pursue more robust ties .Every country in the Americas would benefit from strengthened and expanded economic relations, with improved access to each other’s markets, investment capital, and energy resources . Even with its current economic problems, the United States’ $16-trillion economy is a vital market and source of capital (including remittances) and technology for Latin America, and it could contribute more to the region’s economic performance . For its part, Latin America’s rising economies will inevitably become more and more crucial to the United States’ economic future .The United States and many nations of Latin America and the Caribbean would also gain a great deal by more cooperation on such global matters as climate change, nuclear non-proliferation, and democracy and human rights . With a rapidly expanding US Hispanic population of more than 50 million, the cultural and demographic integration of the United States and Latin America is proceeding at an accelerating pace, setting a firmer basis for hemispheric partnership. Despite the multiple opportunities and potential benefits, relations between the United States and Latin America remain disappointing . If new opportunities are not seized, relations will likely continue to drift apart . The longer the current situation persists, the harder it will be to reverse course and rebuild vigorous cooperation . Hemispheric affairs require urgent attention—both from the United States and from Latin America and the Caribbean.

IADPP ’12 (Inter-American Dialogue Policy Report; “Remaking the Relationship the United states and Latin America”; April 2012; http://www.thedialogue.org/PublicationFiles/IAD2012PolicyReportFINAL.pdf)

There are compelling reasons for the United States and Latin America to pursue more robust ties Every country would benefit from expanded economic relations with improved access to markets, investment capital, and energy resources the United States’ is a vital market and technology for Latin America The United States and Latin America would gain a great deal by more cooperation on climate change non-proliferation, and democracy and human rights The longer the current situation persists, the harder it will be to reverse course Hemispheric affairs require urgent attention

Delay DA---the affirmative makes things worse---economic engagement is good---acting now is key

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Case Negatives

2013

Washington’s failure to repair the United States’ broken immigration system is breeding resentment across the region, nowhere more so than in the principal points of origin and transit: Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean . Latin Americans find the idea of building a wall on the US-Mexico border particularly offensive .Despite bitter political battles over immigration in the United States, there is general agreement about what sensible reform would include . It combines effective border and employer enforcement, the adoption of a general worker program consistent with labor market needs in the United States, and a path toward residence and citizenship for the estimated 12 million unauthorized residents living in the country . This package is similar to the reform effort (unfortunately defeated in Congress) proposed under President George W . Bush .The complicated and divisive politics of the United States, compounded by the weakness of the US economy, have so far blocked this comprehensive approach . But more limited measures such as the Dream Act, allowing children brought to the United States without appropriate documentation an opportunity to qualify for citizenship, would not only be welcomed in US Latino communities and in Latin America, but it would demonstrate that the issue is being taken seriously and with a measure of compassion in Washington .Sensible US immigration policies promise to benefit the US economy .Migrants make up a significant percentage of younger workers . Their presence would improve the labor demographic and increase the US capacity for economic growth even while their contributions help sustain the US social security system . Immigration reform would also recognize the growing “Latinoamericanization” of the United States . Roughly one sixth of the population is currently of Latino descent . The cultural, demographic and family ties of those 50 million people will continue to deepen . The United States’ inability to respond to the policy challenge of immigration will have increasingly negative consequences, standing in the way of a more productive relationship with Latin America

IADPP ’12 (Inter-American Dialogue Policy Report; “Remaking the Relationship the United states and Latin America”; April 2012; http://www.thedialogue.org/PublicationFiles/IAD2012PolicyReportFINAL.pdf)

Washington’s failure to repair the immigration system is breeding resentment across the region Latin Americans find the idea of building a wall on the US-Mexico border particularly offensive divisive politics of the United States compounded by the weakness of the US economy have blocked this comprehensive approach more limited measures such as the Dream Act would be welcomed in Latin America it would demonstrate the issue is being taken seriously and with compassion in Washington The United States’ inability to respond to the policy challenge of immigration will have increasingly negative consequences, standing in the way of a more productive relationship with Latin America

Immigration reform is an alt cause---failure to pass a policy has bred resentment---the aff makes it worse

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That said, Mexican attitudes are more highly sensitive to U.S. immigration policy than is the case with other Latin American countries. The Arizona immigration law, for example, had a significant short-term effect on attitudes in Mexico: in 2010 the Mexican favorability numbers for the U.S. dropped from 62% to 48%, but those have since rebounded impressively in 2013 to 66%.¶ Clearly, a government is not its people. The most recent fiasco with regard to leaks from former U.S. intelligence contractor Edward Snowden is such example. Assertions that the U.S. has been intercepting phone calls and emails in Argentina, Ecuador, Brazil, Colombia and Mexico, have created a flurry of diplomatic activity – but likely won’t have a long-term effect on perception of the U.S. Similarly, over-arching U.S. policies toward Cuba, the war on drugs, and immigration, may be unpopular, but appear to have little lasting impact on attitudes to the United States and her people.¶ And it would seem that many people in Latin America are suspicious of the efforts by some populist, left-leaning governments to fan the fires of anti-Americanism. For example, Pew Research Center analyst Katie Simmons reports that “worsening ties with America is something the Venezuelan public wants to avoid,” with only 22% of all Venezuelans reporting that they would like their country to establish more distance from the U.S.¶ Over the years, “America the beautiful” has been represented by the occasional “ugly American”. However, it would seem now that the majority of people in Latin America maintain a positive view of the United States. And when they encounter American business people, more often than not that understanding is reinforced – a good thing for all involved.

Wilson 7-24-13 (Tim Wilson- freelance journalist for Near Shore America; “Despite Chavez and Snowden, Pro-U.S. Sentiment Grows in Latin America”; http://www.nearshoreamericas.com/chavez-snowden-latin-america-perceptions-us/)

Mexican attitudes are highly sensitive to U.S. immigration policy The Arizona law had a significant short-term effect on attitudes in Mexico Assertions that the U.S. has been intercepting phone calls and emails in Argentina, Ecuador, Brazil, Colombia and Mexico, have created a flurry of diplomatic activity Latin America are suspicious of the efforts by populist, left-leaning governments to fan the fires of anti-Americanism. Pew Research Center reports “worsening ties with America is something the Venezuelan public wants to avoid,” the majority of people in Latin America maintain a positive view of the United States. And when they encounter American business people, more often than not that understanding is reinforced – a good thing for all involved.

Multiple alt causes prove the aff doesn’t fix anything. Latin America has a positive long-term view of the US

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For this reason, the various movements against oppression need to be aware of and supportive of each other. In critical pedagogy, however, the exploration of questions of race, gender, class, and sexuality has proceeded so far with little acknowledgement of the systemic links between human oppressions and the domination of nature. The more-than-human world and human relationships to it have been ignored, as if the suffering and exploitation of other beings and the global ecological crisis were somehow irrelevant. Despite the call for attention to voices historically absent from traditional canons and narratives (Sadovnik, 1995, p. 316), nonhuman beings are shrouded in silence. This silence characterizes even the work of writers who call for a rethinking of all culturally positioned essentialisms. Like other educators influenced by poststructuralism, we agree that there is a need to scrutinize the language we use, the meanings we deploy, and the epistemological frameworks of past eras (Luke & Luke, 1995, p. 378). To treat social categories as stable and unchanging is to reproduce the prevailing relations of power (Britzman et al., 1991, p. 89). What would it mean, then, for critical pedagogy to extend this investigation and critique to include taken-for-granted understandings of “human,” “animal,” and “nature”? This question is difficult to raise precisely because these understandings are taken for granted. The anthropocentric bias in critical pedagogy manifests itself in silence and in the asides of texts. Since it is not a topic of discussion, it can be difficult to situate a critique of it. Following feminist analyses, we find that examples of anthropocentrism, like examples of gender symbolization, occur “in those places where speakers reveal the assumptions they think they do not need to defend, beliefs they expect to share with their audiences” (Harding, 1986, p. 112). Take, for example, Freire’s (1990) statements about the differences between “Man” and animals. To set up his discussion of praxis and the importance of “naming” the world, he outlines what he assumes to be shared, commonsensical beliefs about humans and other animals. He defines the boundaries of human membership according to a sharp, hierarchical dichotomy that establishes human superiority. Humans alone, he reminds us, are aware and self-conscious beings who can act to fulfill the objectives they set for themselves. Humans alone are able to infuse the world with their creative presence, to overcome situations that limit them, and thus to demonstrate a “decisive attitude towards the world” (p. 90). Freire (1990, pp. 87–91) represents other animals in terms of their lack of such traits. They are doomed to passively accept the given, their lives “totally determined” because their decisions belong not to themselves but to their species. Thus whereas humans inhabit a “world” which they create and transform and from which they can separate themselves, for animals there is only habitat, a mere physical space to which they are “organically bound.” To accept Freire’s assumptions is to believe that humans are animals only in a nominal sense. We are different not in degree but in kind, and though we might recognize that other animals have distinct qualities, we as humans are somehow moreunique. We have the edge over other creatures because we are able to rise above monotonous, species-determined biological existence. Change in the service of human freedom is seen to be our primary agenda. Humans are thus cast as active agents whose very essence is to transform the world – as if somehow acceptance, appreciation, wonder, and reverence were beyond the pale. This discursive frame of reference is characteristic of critical pedagogy. The human/animal opposition upon which it rests is taken for granted, its cultural and historical specificity not acknowledged. And therein lies the problem. Like other social constructions, this one derives its persuasiveness from its “seeming facticity and from the deep investments individuals and communities have in setting themselves off from others” (Britzman et al., 1991, p. 91). This becomes the normal way of seeing the world, and like other discourses of normalcy, it limits possibilities of taking up and confronting inequities (see Britzman, 1995). The primacy of the human enterprise is simply not questioned. Precisely how an anthropocentric pedagogy might exacerbate the environmental crisis has not received much consideration in the literature of critical pedagogy, especially in North America. Although there may be passing reference to planetary destruction, there is seldom mention of the relationship between education and the domination of nature, let alone any sustained exploration of the links between the domination of nature and other social injustices. Concerns about the nonhuman are relegated to environmental education. And since environmental education, in turn, remains peripheral to the core curriculum (A. Gough, 1997; Russell, Bell, & Fawcett, 2000), anthropocentrism passes unchallenged. 1

Bell and Russell 2K (Anne C. by graduate students in the Faculty of Environmental Studies, York University and Constance L. a graduate student at the Ontario Institute for Studies in Education, University of Toronto, Beyond Human, Beyond Words: Anthropocentrism, Critical Pedagogy, and the Poststructuralist Turn, http://www.csse-scee.ca/CJE/Articles/FullText/CJE25-3/CJE25-3-bell.pdf)

the exploration of questions of race, gender, class, and sexuality has proceeded so far with little acknowledgement of the systemic links between human oppressions and the domination of nature. The more-than-human world and human relationships to it have been ignored, as if the suffering and exploitation of other beings and the global ecological crisis were somehow irrelevant nonhuman beings are shrouded in silence. there is a need to scrutinize the language we use, the meanings we deploy, and the epistemological frameworks of past eras To treat social categories as stable and unchanging is to reproduce the prevailing relations of power The anthropocentric bias in critical pedagogy manifests itself in silence examples of anthropocentrism occur “in those places where speakers reveal the assumptions they think they do not need to defend, beliefs they expect to share with their audiences animals are doomed to passively accept the given, their lives “totally determined” because their decisions belong not to themselves but to their species whereas humans inhabit a “world” which they create and transform and from which they can separate themselves, for animals there is only habitat, a mere physical space to which they are “organically bound.” Humans are thus cast as active agents whose very essence is to transform the world – as if somehow acceptance, appreciation, wonder, and reverence were beyond the pale This discursive frame of reference is characteristic of critical pedagogy. The human/animal opposition upon which it rests is taken for granted, its cultural and historical specificity not acknowledged. And therein lies the problem. Like other social constructions, this one derives its persuasiveness from its “seeming facticity and from the deep investments individuals and communities have in setting themselves off from others” This becomes the normal way of seeing the world, and like other discourses of normalcy, it limits possibilities of taking up and confronting inequities The primacy of the human enterprise is simply not questioned.

The 1AC ironically neglects the non-human world---that ensures replicating human-centrism and reifying anthropocentric dominance

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2013

Conflict is inherent in our founding ideals, and gives us the opportunity to debate issues that impact our lives. Wilderness preservation and use affect every aspect of our lives, whether it is in the form of recreational pleasure to enrich our sense of well being or material resources to support our lifestyle. Out of necessity our thinking must evolve from an anthropocentric to a biocentric point of view. This may be possible as the world continues to move toward globalization and the consumption patterns of industrialized countries are closely scrutinized. Since democratic ideals are spreading throughout the world, they can now be used to generate global debate about environmental issues with resolutions via majority rule. Efforts toward global change can be supported at local levels through bold leadership and public policy. Change is not easy even when it is worthwhile and necessary. Human impacts on wilderness areas will continue to degrade the environment unless people reshape their thinking about the land, reevaluate their relationship to it, and curb their appetite for consumption. In other words, humans need to view themselves as citizens of the environmental community rather than conquerors of it: Indeed, people cannot really understand why each organism possesses the characteristics it does until they fathom the entire animal and plant community in which it functions .... Nature is infinitely more complex, and its individual parts more closely connected than anyone could have suspected before the age of ecological research (Hinchman & Hinchman 1989, 210-11). Hopefully, global efforts to promote environmental responsibility and develop sustainable living patterns will have a positive impact on localized wilderness debates. Biocentric thinking will become stronger as more individuals begin to view humanity as part of the environment rather than a species separate from and superior to it. In addition, culturally diverse ideas, like the diverse community of plants and animals, will contribute to sustaining the whole (Hinchman & Hinchman 1989, 213). The human species is the only one capable of destroying or protecting the natural world. Imagine a new political structure based on biocentric thinking, where political boundaries follow natural boundaries of ecosystems;12 where nature is viewed as “the widest circle within which we dwell,” and politics is “the citadel that educates us to the enduring value of nature, and ensures that there will be a nature left for us to experience” (Hinchman & Hinchman 1989, 224). Perhaps the thought of biocentric politics is too idealistic to consider. But at one time in history, the concept of a political system based on classical liberalism was considered idealistic.

Roberts no date – (Lynda Roberts- prof. at University of Utah; “The Wilderness Debate: A Conflict Between Values”; http://www.naspaa.org/initiatives/paa/pdf/lynda_roberts.pdf)

our thinking must evolve from an anthropocentric to a biocentric point of view This may be possible as the world continues to move toward globalization and the consumption patterns of industrialized countries are closely scrutinized. democratic ideals can now be used to generate global debate about environmental issues with resolutions Efforts toward global change can be supported at local levels through bold leadership and public policy. Change is not easy Human impacts on wilderness areas will continue to degrade the environment unless people reshape their thinking about the land, reevaluate their relationship to it, and curb their appetite for consumption humans need to view themselves as citizens of the environmental community rather than conquerors of it , global efforts to promote environmental responsibility and develop sustainable living patterns will have a positive impact on localized wilderness debates culturally diverse ideas will contribute to sustaining the whole Imagine a new political structure based on biocentric thinking, where political boundaries follow natural boundaries of ecosystems where nature is viewed as “the widest circle within which we dwell,” and politics is “the citadel that educates us to the enduring value of nature, and ensures that there will be a nature left for us to experience” Perhaps biocentric politics is too idealistic But at one time classical liberalism was considered idealistic.

A new political idealism based on nature solves selective intervention

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The inconclusive conclusion affirms certain key points, namely that a confrontation with the past is possible, if not embraced by all involved, and that environmental destruction is ongoing for practical reasons, as well as sinister ones involving power, profit, and fear. All told, the environmental details bring a new discourse of environmentalism to bear upon “old” concerns like human rights and social justice in Latin America and point to what Ursula Heise calls a “sense of planet.” Heise has argued that “in a context of rapidly increasing connections around the globe, what is crucial for ecological awareness and environmental ethics is arguably not so much a sense of place as a sense of planet—a sense of how political, economic, technological, social, cultural, and ecological networks shape daily routines” (55). For Lobo, daily routines around a globalized world have insidious links to repression based in phobias and hatreds. When Lobo rewrites the picturesque town of her own childhood, she projects a different image, one that acknowledges the human and natural landscape of Chile as a place of exploitation, where wounds do not heal or close, but are instead often unacknowledged and paved over with progress. Lobo leaves readers with the vision of a town in which hydrangeas may grow in the garden, but the brutal past of the Pinochet years persists just below the surface of prosperity—out of sight beneath the pavement, under the azure surface of the lake, and in the shuttered memories of the town’s inhabitants. She also reminds us that a new biopolitics—in narrative and in praxis—must affirm not only “the life of the political community but also of its very condition of material production” (Mendieta xiii).

Barbas-Rhoden ’10 (Laura Barbas-Rhoden- Educational innovator & Spanish prof at Wofford C, author of Ecological Imaginations; “Biopolitics and the Critique of Neoliberalism in El corazón del silencio by Tatiana Lobo”; Fall 2010; http://www.ncsu.edu/project/acontracorriente/fall_10/articles/Barbas-Rhoden.pdf)

a confrontation with the past is possible and environmental destruction is ongoing for practical reasons, as well as sinister ones involving power, profit, and fear the environmental details bring a new discourse of environmentalism to bear upon “old” concerns like human rights and social justice in Latin America and point to what Heise calls a “sense of planet.” “in a context of rapidly increasing connections around the globe, what is crucial for ecological awareness and environmental ethics is arguably not so much a sense of place as a sense of planet—a sense of how political, economic, technological, social, cultural, and ecological networks shape daily routines” daily routines have insidious links to repression based in phobias and hatreds

Anthro comes first---prior question to understanding politics

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Colonial Latin America, which lasted for about 300 years for most of the region, was extraordinarily complex and rich in texture. There are enormous differences between Mexico, on the one hand, and Brazil, on the other. The term “Latin America” is not only shorthand but also a bit of a misnomer, for much of it was not Latin. It was Indian or mestizo or African, often with little more than a veneer of Iberian culture. The degree to which it was any of these are Spanish, Portuguese, African, Indian, or some combination thereof varies according to place and time. We have trouble deciding what to call other humans. Some terms are inaccurate; some are invented to satisfy the politics of the day. Some are acceptable in one era and unacceptable in another. In modern parlance, the earlier immigrants are often called "Native Americans," a term as inaccurate as the term "Indian" or indio as the Iberians called them. They immigrated just like everyone else but not all at the same time. Nor have we wanted to see the coming of the Europeans and Africans to the Western Hemisphere as just another episode in the many thousand years of its immigration history. One is at a loss to decide what terminology would be accurate and inoffensive. Equally serious, is that most people, even scholars, ignore the DNA evidence and the reasonable conclusions that are drawn from it. We do not want to think of all human beings as cousins, which they are, because it forces us to reconsider all kinds of cherished beliefs. We prefer to be inaccurate because it is easier and feels better. Similarly, we refer to some people as Spaniards when, in 1500, there was no Spain. Some Latin Americans today point out that it is politically incorrect for citizens of the United States to expropriate the name “American” for themselves. They see it as sheer arrogance, which it is. On the other hand, we see the Mexican people called Aztecs when, in fact, only a fraction were in 1519; that they are called thusly is imperialism on the part of those who rule Mexico. We do not have to look very hard in this part of the world to find other examples.

Mabry no date (Donald J.-Professor of History Mississippi State University and The Historical Text Archive; “COLONIAL LATIN AMERICA”; http://historicaltextarchive.com/latin/colonial.pdf)

Colonial Latin America was complex There are enormous differences between Mexico and Brazil The term “Latin America” is a misnomer It was Indian or mestizo or African The degree to which it was any of these are Spanish, Portuguese, African, Indian, or some combination thereof varies according to place and time. We have trouble deciding what to call other humans. Some terms are inaccurate; some are invented to satisfy the politics of the day Some are unacceptable We do not want to think of all human beings as cousins, which they are, because it forces us to reconsider all kinds of cherished beliefs. We prefer to be inaccurate because it is easier and feels better. Latin Americans today point out that it is politically incorrect for citizens of the United States to expropriate the name “American” for themselves They see it as sheer arrogance, which it is

Expropriating the term “American” is offensive---using one term to describe a diverse and complex nation inevitably dehumanizes the indigenous populations

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The words Latino and Hispanic have been so carelessly thrown around, used to label individuals, taken advantage of by some of the popular media (ie: Latin Grammy’s, AOL Latino, and the Hispanic Heritage Awards), and even used by some unknowing people as a tool to define their heritage. Yet do we really know what these words mean? There are over 25 countries where Spanish is either the official, or a commonly spoken language (including areas of the world that people don’t often associate with Spanish, like Andorra or the Philippines), and Spanish is the second most spoken language in the world. Additionally there are myriad regional dialects; some examples are the original Castilian Spanish of Spain (directly descended from the Latin language), Argentinean Spanish with its distinctive Italian flair, and Mexican Spanish with its characteristic blend of indigenous (Native American) words. There is no “typical” skin color for Spanish speakers - they range from the lightest whites to Mediterranean breeds, from those of Indian (Native Central/South American and Caribbean) heritage to black. All of the Spanish-speaking countries have their own unique peoples and their own distinctive cultures – they cannot be broadly and irresponsibly categorized into a “Latino” grouping. It is entirely imprecise to use such broad, vague, inaccurate terminology to categorize people based upon their language (whatever dialect it may be). Oddly enough, the term “Latino(a)” is never (or rarely) used in the USA to refer to Western Europeans such as Spaniards and Italians, when in fact the original Latin cultures lie within Italy, Spain, Portugal, Romania, Andorra, and France. Furthermore, when students arrive at college or pick up a book on European history, they will find that the term Latin, when used to refer to a monolithic culture, will speak of the Ancient Roman society, which is contrary to the ambiguous terminology employed by American media. The term Latin America first came into use in the late 1860’s and was used to describe the French presence in Mexico. This term was later shortened to refer to people from “Latin American” countries; thus solidifying the American misperception of the term. I have many Spanish-speaking friends, all of whom hail from different countries. My ex-college Professor is from Argentina and has almost nothing culturally in common with my friend from Mexico. As a matter of fact they too hate the use of the term Latino; they demand to be referred to according to their country of heritage, and rightly so! Furthermore, the terms Latino and Hispanic have been irresponsibly used as a “minority labeling system.” I find this to be even more reckless because any and all racism boils down to that which it always has: color. Another of my friends hails from Chile and has red hair and blue eyes, but according to popular media, a job application, or a government form, she is Latina or Hispanic, two terms that she earnestly hates because they pay no credence to her unique culture. Somehow I don’t think she was the minority prototype that they were looking for, but possibly that’s because the terminology is so rampantly and incorrectly used. Racism is despicable in any form, but if these silly questions are still going to be asked on government forms and job applications then they should address that which is truly in question: race. Anyone who hails from Central/South America or the Caribbean who is dark-skinned is likely to be either in part or fully of Indian heritage. Instead of making tons of superfluous categories on forms, why not just leave two boxes: Native American (North/Central/South/Caribbean) and African American? The other day I heard someone say, “Did you know that Latinos constitute the second largest minority population in America?” I thought to myself, “This is ridiculous.” Nobody needs to be forced into an inappropriate minority mentality; how has American cultural ignorance become so pervasive? Who are the minorities? The indigenous (native) population or the mestizo (mixed) population? Who exactly does this refer to? It’s so confusing. I am 100% Italian American. I speak both Spanish and Italian fluently. Since Italy is the patriarch of the Latin Culture, am I a minority too? This has become a very perplexing issue indeed. In Western Europe the term Latin(o)(a) is commonly used to refer the cultures of Italy, Spain, Portugal, Romania, and France. Additionally Europeans are shocked at how the term is used in America and who the term has been used to label. The term Latino(a) refers to the Latin culture, a culture that originally flourished in Italy during Roman times. It was during that time that the Romans spread the Latin language throughout Western Europe; the language then morphed into the modern Romance Languages such as Italian, Spanish, Portuguese, and French. In essence, the Italians are the original Latinos, and the only people who should be termed “Latino(a)” are those whose ancestry stems from Western Europe or those who have strong cultural ties to Latin Culture. Why would someone so irresponsibly refer to an indigenous Mexican as “Latino” when he has his own ancient, Pre-Columbian Heritage, ie: Aztec, or Mayan? Why would someone use the term to refer to someone of indigenous Peruvian heritage when he has his own Incan heritage? Why would someone label an indigenous-blooded Puerto Rican as “Latino” when his bloodline lies with the Borinquen Indians? People need to wake up and get educated on this issue. How many North Americans would like to be referred to as “Norths” or “Anglos” based upon our geographical location or our mother tongue? I for one, would not! The spread of such inaccurate terminology only helps to perpetuate myths that prevail in our society. Cultural ignorance seems to be a popular phenomenon in the U.S.A. Americans do not have the right to irresponsibly use terminology that attempts to alter history. We have the resources to become culturally educated; let’s use them and begin to express our heritage by country, not vague, “media and commerce friendly” generalities. If indeed we chose to speak of “Latinos,” using such a generalist quip, a quick reference term for all those who trace their roots to Latin America., then we should include the maternal Latin countries in that group: Italy, Spain, Portugal, even France. There is a pervasive Latin cultural flow that began in those countries and spread to Latin America. Latinos wouldn’t be “Latinoamericano” without the Europeans.

Grande ’05 (Michael Grande is a graduate student of Literature and Culture. In addition to English, he also speaks Italian, Spanish, French and basic Latin. In the past, he's been published in Manchester Times; “Latino & Hispanic? It’s Time to Rethink these Terms!”; 7/5/2005; http://www.globalpolitician.com/default.asp?2946-hispanic-latin-america-south-america/)

do we really know what these words mean? There is no “typical” skin color for Spanish speakers All of the Spanish-speaking countries have their own unique peoples and distinctive cultures – they cannot be broadly and irresponsibly categorized into a “Latino” grouping It is entirely imprecise to use such broad, vague, inaccurate terminology to categorize people based upon their language The term Latin America first came into use in the late 1860’s and was used to describe the French presence in Mexico. This term was later shortened to refer to people from “Latin American” countries; thus solidifying the American misperception of the term Another of my friends hails from Chile but according to a job application, or government form, she is Latina or Hispanic, two terms that she earnestly hates because they pay no credence to her unique culture. Anyone who hails from Central/South America or the Caribbean who is dark-skinned is likely to be either in part or fully of Indian heritage. Instead of making tons of superfluous categories on forms, why not just leave two boxes: Native American (North/Central/South/Caribbean) and African American? The term Latino(a) refers to the Latin culture, a culture that originally flourished in Italy during Roman times. It was during that time that the Romans spread the Latin language throughout Western Europe; the language then morphed into the modern Romance Languages such as Italian, Spanish, Portuguese, and French the Italians are the original Latinos Why would someone so irresponsibly refer to an indigenous Mexican as “Latino” when he has his own ancient, Pre-Columbian Heritage, ie: Aztec, or Mayan? Why would someone use the term to refer to someone of indigenous Peruvian heritage when he has his own Incan heritage? Why would someone label an indigenous-blooded Puerto Rican as “Latino” when his bloodline lies with the Borinquen Indians? People need to wake up and get educated on this issue. How many North Americans would like to be referred to as “Norths” or “Anglos” based upon our geographical location or our mother tongue? The spread of such inaccurate terminology only helps to perpetuate myths that prevail in our society. Cultural ignorance seems to be a popular phenomenon in the U.S.A. Americans do not have the right to irresponsibly use terminology that attempts to alter history. If indeed we chose to speak of “Latinos,” using such a generalist quip, a quick reference term for all those who trace their roots to Latin America., then we should include the maternal Latin countries in that group: Italy, Spain, Portugal, even France. There is a pervasive Latin cultural flow that began in those countries and spread to Latin America. Latinos wouldn’t be “Latinoamericano” without the Europeans.

Their description of Latin America denies cultural difference and enforces generalizations which are essentially racism in disguise---not only is it historically inaccurate, but it also denies political independence by pinning the country with their European and American imperialist heritage

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2013

HOMOGENIZING the image of the "other" has always been a way for groups to marginalize undesirable minorities and foreigners. Two dozen centuries ago, Hippocrates wrote that the Scythians — nomadic people whom the Greeks considered barbaric — all looked alike. By contrast, the good doctor could discern that his own people came in all shapes and sizes. To refuse to make distinctions among members of any given group is the first step to stripping them of individuality. And depriving people of individuality is the first step to dehumanizing them. You know the drill: All Jews are alike. Black people are all this. White people are all that. Last week, David Hiller, the new publisher of The Times, wrote a memo to his staff in which he expressed his belief that the newspaper needs to do a better job of reaching the readers he called "Hispanics" and the Times prefers to call "Latinos." A flap ensued over which word was better suited to the task. Yet if the paper really wants to reach "Hispanics" or "Latinos," what it must do is stop overusing such generic terms and instead concentrate on discerning the distinctions they cover up. Consider this: Two-thirds of U.S. Latinos are of Mexican origin. In California, that figure rises to 83%. It is odd then that over the last three decades, as the Mexican presence in the United States has grown astronomically, the term "Mexican American" has all but disappeared in daily journalism, especially in The Times. My concern is not a matter of ethnic pride. The use of the catchall term undermines the accuracy of stories. A few years ago, a Times editorial referred to tacos as a "Latino favorite," which is a little like saying pasta is a "European favorite." It's not untrue, but it makes you look silly. Likewise, a Los Angeles Times magazine story in the aftermath of the Kobe Bryant rape accusation referred to Bryant's wife, Vanessa, as "Latina," and nothing more. That tells me next to nothing about Mrs. Bryant. Does it mean she was born in Nicaragua or Uruguay? Or that her parents are from rural Mexico? Or maybe that she is the granddaughter of a Dominican plantation owner? There is no nation of Latinoland, and if her heritage is important to the story, then why not connect her (or her family) to a country with a unique culture and tradition. It's not just national origin that the term "Latino" masks. Times' reporters will refer to downtown Huntington Park, a heavily Mexican immigrant city, as a "Latino shopping district." Montebello, a town heavily populated by U.S.-born Mexican Americans, is also usually identified as "mostly Latino." By referring to both as Latino, journalists ignore critical distinctions between foreign and U.S.-born ethnic Mexicans. I'm not arguing to get rid of the terms "Latino" or "Hispanic." There are many instances when the catchall ID applies. Nor am I arguing that a pan-Latino identity does not exist. It does. But being Latino is a secondary — and oftentimes flimsy — identity in the same way that being European is. Just as Frenchmen and Poles will tell you that they are French and Polish before they are Europeans, Cuban Americans and Salvadoran Americans tend to adhere to national-origin identity more strongly than to the generic one. Not surprisingly, the generic terms are the products of politics. They gained currency in the 1970s as Mexican Americans in the Southwest decided to make common cause with Puerto Ricans in the Northeast, and they needed terms that bridged regional and cultural distinctions. The advent of race-based policies and set-asides encouraged Latino subgroups to forge a common front to position themselves to receive federal largesse. Old-fashioned partisan politics also played a role. The Nixon administration first pushed for a recognition of a "Spanish-speaking" identity group, as the GOP actively sought a strategy to lure Mexican American voters. President Nixon also insisted on the addition of a Hispanic-origin question on the census form. Historian John D. Skrentny discovered a 1971 White House memo that points to the administration's ulterior motive: "Spanish-speaking Americans will take what they can get from whomever will give it…. We should exploit Spanish-speaking hostility to blacks by reminding Spanish groups of the Democrats' commitment to blacks at their expense." But to do this, the government had to throw Mexican Americans into a single, overarching category that could be understood as analogous to blacks. In 1980, federal census demographers discovered that other than a handful of political elites who understood the advantages of becoming Latino, few Americans of Latin American origin wanted a collective name that suggested a collective identity. But a generation of the government and the media using the generic terms has changed all that. Today, "Latino" and "Hispanic" have way too much popular currency, and their overuse does nothing to give us a greater understanding of our city, state or nation. The terms are too broad to give us an accurate portrayal of the dynamism of this vast and growing population. My modest proposal to employ more specific descriptions is no panacea for this newspaper's outreach problems, but it could be a start. At least it'd make it more reflective of the complex ethnic reality of Los Angeles.

Rodriguez ’06 (Gregory Rodriguez- founding director of the Center for Social Cohesion, is a senior fellow at the New America Foundation, and executive director of Zócalo Public Square. He has written widely on issues of social cohesion, civic engagement, national identity, assimilation, race relations, religion, immigration, ethnicity, demographics and social and political trends in leading publications such as The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Economist, Time, Newsweek, and the Los Angeles Times, where he is an op-ed columnist. The author of Mongrels, Bastards, Orphans and Vagabonds: Mexican Immigration and the Future of Race in America (Pantheon), which The Washington Post listed among the “Best Books of 2007,” Rodriguez is at work on a book on the American cult of hope; “Look beyond the 'Latino' label”; November 12, 2006; http://www.latimes.com/news/la-op-rodriguez12nov12,1,1839578.column)

HOMOGENIZING the image of the "other" has always been a way for groups to marginalize undesirable minorities and foreigners To refuse to make distinctions is stripping them of individuality. And dehumanizing them You know the drill: All Jews are alike. Black people are all this. White people are all that. Two-thirds of U.S. Latinos are of Mexican origin. In California, that figure rises to 83%. It is odd then that over the last three decades, as the Mexican presence in the United States has grown astronomically, the term "Mexican American" has all but disappeared in daily journalism, especially in The Times. The use of the catchall term undermines the accuracy of stories. Likewise, a Los Angeles Times magazine story in the aftermath of the Kobe Bryant rape accusation referred to Bryant's wife, Vanessa, as "Latina," and nothing more. That tells me next to nothing about Mrs. Bryant. Does it mean she was born in Nicaragua or Uruguay? Or that her parents are from rural Mexico? Or maybe that she is the granddaughter of a Dominican plantation owner? if her heritage is important to the story, then why not connect her (or her family) to a country with a unique culture and tradition. the government had to throw Mexican Americans into a single, overarching category that could be understood as analogous to blacks Today, "Latino" and "Hispanic" have way too much popular currency The terms are too broad to give us an accurate portrayal of the dynamism of this vast and growing population.

The term “Latin America” is an overarching claim that serves to marginalize and dehumanize minorities---this strips them of their cultural identity and is a social primer for exclusion

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Recently, however, a wind of change has been blowing across Latin America. Starting with anti-IMF riots in Caracas in 1989, and the rise of the Zapatistas in the early 1990s, people in Latin America have started resisting neo-liberalism and US domination. Within the last few years, a number of progressive leaders -- for example, Chavez in Venezuela, Morales in Bolivia, and Correa in Ecuador -- have come to power on the back of this resistance. For these governments, breaking with neo-liberalism has been a priority.2 Perhaps the most important initiative for that has been the creation of the Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas (ALBA). Indeed, ALBA is aimed at striking a major blow against US hegemony, the IMF, the World Bank, "free" trade, and neo-liberalism in general.¶ ALBA as an Alternative to "Free" Trade¶ Since the late 1990s, the US has been trying to secure a regional "free" trade agreement with Latin American countries, known as the Free Trade Area for the Americas (FTAA). In 2001, under the Chavez government's leadership, a number of Latin American states, trade unions, and social movements successfully banded together to block the FTAA. With this, the US state and its corporate allies' hopes were smashed. However, the Chavez government was not satisfied with blocking the FTAA -- it wanted to create a viable regional alternative to "free" trade. Under Venezuela's leadership, ALBA was born in late 2004.¶ Initially, ALBA consisted of only two member states: Venezuela and Cuba. When the benefits of ALBA became evident, however, other states joined. At present, there are four full member states of ALBA: Bolivia, Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela. There are four observer states in ALBA -- Ecuador, Uruguay, the Dominican Republic, and St. Kitts3 -- who will become full members in the near future.4¶ ALBA rejects neo-liberalism and aims to forge a path away from "free" trade. ALBA itself has a wide range of guiding principles and has the following objectives:¶ To promote trade and investment between member governments, based on cooperation, and with the aim of improving people's lives, not making profits.

Hattingh ‘8 [July 2nd, 2008, Shawn, International Labour Research and Information Group, “ALBA: Creating a Regional Alternative to Neoliberalism?” Monthly Review, http://mrzine.monthlyreview.org/2008/hattingh070208.html]

ALBA is aimed at striking a major blow against US hegemony, the IMF, the World Bank, "free" trade, and neo-liberalism in general ALBA an Alternative to "Free" Trade government not satisfied with blocking the FTAA -- it wanted to create a viable regional alternative to "free" trade. ALBA rejects neo-liberalism and aims to forge a path away from "free" trade

The aff kills free trade and hegemony---their author

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This problem in recent progressive scholarship strikes me as related to a parallel problem in progressive politics more broadly. For over the last couple of decades, what we call “the Left” has come to be organized, in large part, around a project of resisting and refusing harmful new developments in the world. This is understandable, since so many new developments have indeed been highly objectionable. But it has left us with a politics largely defined by negation and disdain, and centered on what I will call “the antis.” Anti-globalization, anti- neoliberalism, anti-privatization, anti-imperialism, anti-Bush, perhaps even anti-capitalism—but always “anti”, not “pro”. This is good enough, perhaps, if one’s political goal is simply to denounce “the system” and to decry its current tendencies. And, indeed, some seem satisfied with such a politics. In my own disciplines of anthropology and African Studies, for instance, studies of state and development tend, with depressing predictability, to conclude (in tones of righteous indignation) that the rich are benefiting and the poor are getting screwed. The powerless, it seems, are getting the short end of the stick. This is not exactly a surprising finding, of course (isn’t it precisely because they are on the losing end of things that we call them “powerless” in the first place?). Yet this sort of work styles itself as “critique”, and imagines itself to be very “political”. But what if politics is really not about expressing indignation or denouncing the powerful? What if it is, instead, about getting what you want? Then we progressives must ask: what do we want? This is a quite different question (and a far more difficult question) than: what are we against? What do we want? Such a question brings us very quickly to the question of government. Denunciatory analyses often treat government as the simple expression of power or domination— the implication apparently being that it is politically objectionable that people should be governed at all. But any realistic sort of progressive politics that would seek a serious answer to the question “what do we want?” will have to involve an exploration of the contemporary possibilities for developing genuinely progressive arts of government.

Ferguson ‘10 [2010, James, Professor of Anthropology at Stanford, “The Uses of Neoliberalism,” Antipode, 41.1, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1467-8330.2009.00721.x/abstract]

This problem in recent progressive scholarship strikes me as related to a parallel problem in progressive politics more broadly the Left” has come to be organized, in large part, around a project of resisting and refusing harmful new developments in the world it has left us with a politics largely defined by negation and disdain, and centered on what I will call “the antis.” Anti-globalization, anti- neoliberalism, anti-privatization, anti-imperialism anti-capitalism always “anti”, not “pro”. This is good enough if one’s political goal is simply to denounce “the system” Yet this sort of work styles itself as “critique”, and imagines itself to be very “political” But politics is not about expressing indignation progressives must ask: what do we want? This is a quite different question (and a far more difficult question) than: what are we against? What do we want? Such a question brings us very quickly to the question of government. Denunciatory analyses often treat government as the simple expression of power or domination— the implication apparently being that it is politically objectionable that people should be governed at all. But any realistic sort of progressive politics that would seek a serious answer to the question “what do we want?” will have to involve an exploration of the contemporary possibilities for developing genuinely progressive arts of government.

Anti-neoliberalism movements fail---only neolib works

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In our analysis, like realists, we assume that a Great Power like the United States will seldom want to act benevolently and will concern itself principally with maintaining its security. Our goal, nevertheless, is to point out that in a hegemonic system an intersection exists between policies based on selfish interest and ethical considerations. For a great power to be accepted as a hegemon, it must act in ways that provide key benefits to subordinate states, principally democracy, peace, and security. If not, the great power will rely solely on force, rather than leadership, to achieve influence. Therefore, and perhaps ironically, an ethical US policy toward Latin America can better protect vital US interests than a purely realist policy. We will point out, as other scholars have done, that selfish US policies in the past have often been counterproductive in the long run, jeopardizing, rather than protecting, vital long-term interests. But our argument is not the classic conflict between liberalism and realism; rather, it is a recognition that the realist calculus changes when a Great Power becomes a hegemonic power. Nevertheless, if we can show that an ethical policy can preserve US interests more effectively than a policy based purely on selfish, immediate interests, then we can move closer to the acceptance of a policy that is increasingly ethical and help to bridge the gap between two key schools of thought in American foreign policy—realism and liberalism (Harries, 2005).¶ Moving beyond criticism, we then propose several concrete changes to US policy that would enhance America’s ethical stance toward Latin America, thereby enhancing US hegemony. In essence we provide a prescription that shows how a Great Power’s policies should change once it becomes a hegemonic power. These modest policy recommendations, if enacted, would preserve US interests by improving America’s image, an also result in enhanced security, democracy, and prosperity in the western hemisphere. Taking these steps is important for the United States because Latin America remains a vital region for US strategic, geopolitical, and economic interests (Hsiang, 2003, 59-60). If Washington cannot secure its key interests and be perceived positively in the Western Hemisphere, then attaining goals in the rest of the world will be a pipe dream.

Sanchez and Sholar ’12 [December 2012, Peter, PhD Loyola University Chicago, and Megan, PhD Loyola University Chicago, “Power and Principle: A New US Policy for Latin America”, http://www.ijhssnet.com/journals/Vol_2_No_23_December_2012/3.pdf]

in a hegemonic system an intersection exists between policies based on selfish interest and ethical considerations. For a great power to be accepted as a hegemon, it must act in ways that provide key benefits to subordinate states, , an ethical US policy toward Latin America can better protect vital US interests than a purely realist policy. We point out, as other scholars have done, that selfish US policies in the past have often been counterproductive in the long run, jeopardizing, rather than protecting, vital long-term interests. our argument is a recognition that the realist calculus changes when a Great Power becomes a hegemonic power if we can show that an ethical policy can preserve US interests more effectively than a policy based purely on selfish, immediate interests, then we can move closer to the acceptance of a policy that is increasingly ethical and help to bridge the gap between two key schools of thought in American foreign policy—realism and liberalism Moving beyond criticism, we then propose several concrete changes to US policy that would enhance America’s ethical stance toward Latin America, thereby enhancing US hegemony.

Ethical policies and selfish policies are indistinguishable

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The failure to consider that each being has intrinsic value, independent of its human use, its rational use, and that it is the bearer of the right to exist within the same common habitat, the planet Earth, has opened the path for nature to be treated as a mere object, to be exploited with no other consideration, in some cases, to the point of exhaustion. However, it fell to Latin America, as Eugenio Raul Zaffaroni, noted criminal lawyer and Justice of the Supreme Court of Argentina, shows in, Pachamama and the Human, (La Pachamama y el Humano, Ediciones Colihue 2012), to develop a constitutional theory of an ecological nature, where the Earth and all natural beings, particularly the animals and other living beings are endowed with rights. They must be included in the modern Constitutions that have put aside the deeply rooted anthropocentrism and the dominus paradigm of the human being as lord and dominant master of nature and of the Earth.
 The new Latin American constitutionalists unite two currents: one, the more ancestral, is that of the original Nations, for whom the Earth (Pacha) is mother (Mama), hence the name, Pachamama, and is entitled to rights because she is alive and gives us all that we need, and, in the end, because we are part of and belong to her, in the same way as the animals, woods, jungles, waters, mountains and landscape. They all deserve to exist and to coexist with us, forming the great community and cosmic democracy.
 They integrate this ancestral, efficacious, tradition of the Andean culture, that stretches from Patagonia to Central America, with the new understanding, derived from contemporary cosmology, genetic and molecular biology, and systems theory, that understands the Earth as a living super-organism that self regulates, (Maturana-Varela and Capra’s autopoiesis), seeking always to maintain life and the capacity to reproduce and to make it co-evolve. This Earth, called Gaia, consists of all beings, and generates and sustains the fabric of life in its vast bio-diversity. The Earth, as a generous Mother, must be respected, recognizing her potentialities and her limits, and therefore, accepted as a bearer of rights, -the dignitas Terrae- the basis for making possible and sustaining all the other personal and social rights.

Boff ’13 (Leonardo Boff- a theologian and writer, known for his active support for the rights of the poor and excluded. He currently serves as Professor Emeritus of Ethics, Philosophy of Religion and Ecology at the Rio de Janeiro State University; “Ecological Constitutionalism in Latin America”; May 18, 2013; http://revolucionalimentaria.wordpress.com/2013/05/18/ecological-constitutionalism-in-latin-america/)

it fell to Latin America to develop a constitutional theory of an ecological nature, where the Earth and all natural beings, particularly the animals and other living beings are endowed with rights. They must be included in the modern Constitutions that have put aside the deeply rooted anthropocentrism and the dominus paradigm of the human being as lord and dominant master of nature and of the Earth.
 The new Latin American constitutionalists unite two currents one that Pachamama is entitled to rights because she is alive and gives us all that we need, and we are part of and belong to her They all deserve to exist and to coexist with us, forming the great community and cosmic democracy.
 They integrate this with the new understanding This Earth consists of all beings, and generates and sustains the fabric of life in its vast bio-diversity. The Earth must be respected as the basis for making possible and sustaining personal and social rights.

Latin America has ecological constitutions that solve their impacts---that means the perm solves

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Using several distinct research approaches or sources of information in conjunction is a valuable strategy for developing generic knowledge. This strategy is particularly useful for meeting the challenges of measurement and inference. The nature of historical phenomena makes controlled experimentation—the analytic technique best suited to making strong inferences about causes and effects—practically impossible with real-life situations. Making inferences requires using experimentation in simulated conditions and various other methods, each of which has its own advantages and limitations, but none of which can alone provide the level of certainty desired about what works and under what conditions. We conclude that debates between advocates of different research methods (for example, the quantitative-qualitative debate) are unproductive except in the context of a search for ways in which different methods can complement each other. Because there is no single best way to develop knowledge, the search for generic knowledge about international conflict resolution should adopt an epistemological strategy of triangulation, sometimes called “critical multiplism.”53 That is, it should use multiple perspectives, sources of data, constructs, interpretive frameworks, and modes of analysis to address specific questions on the presumption that research approaches that rely on certain perspectives can act as partial correctives for the limitations of approaches that rely on different ones. An underlying assumption is that robust findings (those that hold across studies that vary along several dimensions) engender more confidence than replicated findings (a traditional scientific ideal, but not practicable in international relations research outside the laboratory). When different data sources or methods converge on a single answer, one can have increased confidence in the result. When they do not converge, one can interpret and take into account the known biases in each research approach. A continuing critical dialogue among analysts using different perspectives, methods, and data could lead to an understanding that better approximates international relations than the results coming from any single study, method, or data source.

Stern and Druckman 00 (Paul, National Research Council and Daniel, Institute for Conflict Analysis and Resolution – George Mason University, International Studies Review, Spring, p. 62-63)

Using several distinct approaches is a valuable strategy for developing generic knowledge debates between advocates of different research methods are unproductive except in the context of a search for ways in which different methods can complement each other Because there is no single best way the search for generic knowledge about international conflict resolution should adopt an epistemological strategy of “critical multiplism.” it should use multiple perspectives, sources of data, constructs, interpretive frameworks, and modes of analysis to address specific questions on the presumption that research approaches that rely on certain perspectives can act as partial correctives for the limitations of different ones. When different sources or methods converge on a single answer, one can have increased confidence When they do not one can interpret and take into account the known biases in each approach

Methodologies are always imperfect---endorsing multiple epistemological frameworks is effective compensation

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While theoretical debates at academic conferences are important to academics, the discourse and concerns of foreign-policy decisionmakers are quite different, so different that they constitute a distinctive problemsolving, theory-averse, policy-making subculture. There is a danger that academics assume that the discourses they engage are more significant in the practice of foreign policy and the exercise of power than they really are. This is not, however, to minimize the obvious importance of academia as a general institutional structure among many that sustain certain epistemic communities in particular states. In general, I do not disagree with Dalby’s fourth point about politics and discourse except to note that his statement-‘Precisely because reality could be represented in particular ways political decisions could be taken, troops and material moved and war fought’-evades the important question of agency that I noted in my review essay. The assumption that it is representations that make action possible is inadequate by itself. Political, military and economic structures, institutions, discursive networks and leadership are all crucial in explaining social action and should be theorized together with representational practices. Both here and earlier, Dalby’s reasoning inclines towards a form of idealism. In response to Dalby’s fifth point (with its three subpoints), it is worth noting, first, that his book is about the CPD, not the Reagan administration. He analyzes certain CPD discourses, root the geographical reasoning practices of the Reagan administration nor its public-policy reasoning on national security. Dalby’s book is narrowly textual; the general contextuality of the Reagan administration is not dealt with. Second, let me simply note that I find that the distinction between critical theorists and poststructuralists is a little too rigidly and heroically drawn by Dalby and others. Third, Dalby’s interpretation of the reconceptualization of national security in Moscow as heavily influenced by dissident peace researchers in Europe is highly idealist, an interpretation that ignores the structural and ideological crises facing the Soviet elite at that time. Gorbachev’s reforms and his new security discourse were also strongly selfinterested, an ultimately futile attempt to save the Communist Party and a discredited regime of power from disintegration. The issues raised by Simon Dalby in his comment are important ones for all those interested in the practice of critical geopolitics. While I agree with Dalby that questions of discourse are extremely important ones for political geographers to engage, there is a danger of fetishizing this concern with discourse so that we neglect the institutional and the sociological, the materialist and the cultural, the political and the geographical contexts within which particular discursive strategies become significant. Critical geopolitics, in other words, should not be a prisoner of the sweeping ahistorical cant that sometimes accompanies ‘poststructuralism nor convenient reading strategies like the identity politics narrative; it needs to always be open to the patterned mess that is human history.

Tuathail ‘96 [1996, Gearóid, Professor of Government and International Affairs, Virginia Tech, “The patterned mess of history and the writing of critical geopolitics: a reply to Dalby, Political Geography” 15:6/7, p 661-665]

While theoretical debates are important to academics, the discourse and concerns of decisionmakers are so different that they constitute a distinctive policy-making subculture academics assume that the discourses they engage are more significant The assumption that representations make action possible is inadequate Political, military and economic institutions are crucial fetishizing concern with discourse neglect institutional sociological cultural political and geographical contexts within which discursive strategies become significant

Discourse doesn’t shape policymaking

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Social identity in Latin America has been a very complicated issue since the beginning and has awakened great interest in many researchers in this region. What does it mean to be Latin American? What are the differences with the Anglo-Ameri- cans? What are the factors that Latin American nations share with the rest of the world? Does racial mixture (white, black, and indigenous) convey positive or negative implications? Are we a "global race" (a mixture of all races), or are we condemned to be second-class citizens without making any legacy to universal culture? In reality, we Latin Americans are part of Western, Judeo-Christian culture, inherited from Spaniards and Portuguese who colonized this part of the world 500 years ago. We are also members of the indigenous cultures and subcultures, rooted in this continent many centuries before the arrival of the Europeans, and we are descendants of the black slaves brought to America to work in the gold mines and plantations. We are the result of a mixture of different cultures and ethnic groups, a new culture that is manifested in every nation of Latin America, from Mexico to Patagonia, a culture that has many characteristics in common, despite the differ- ences that are observed among the various countries and within them. These points of convergence are more relevant than those of divergence, and are related to language, history, tradition, philosophy of life, and social conscience.

Ardila ’96 (Ruben Ardila- Colombian psychologist, he received a BA in Psychology at the National University of Colombia and later a PhD in Experimental Psychology at Nebraska University; “Political Psychology: The Latin American Perspective”; June 1996; Political Psychology, Vol. 17, No. 2 (Jun., 1996), pp. 339-351; available Jstor @ http://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/3791814.pdf?acceptTC=true)

What does it mean to be Latin American? What are the factors that Latin American nations share with the rest of the world? we Latin Americans are part of Western, Judeo-Christian culture, inherited from Spaniards and Portuguese who colonized this part of the world 500 years ago. We are also members of the indigenous cultures and subcultures, rooted in this continent many centuries before the arrival of the Europeans, and we are descendants of the black slaves brought to America to work in the gold mines and plantations. We are the result of a mixture of different cultures and ethnic groups, a new culture that is manifested in every nation of Latin America, from Mexico to Patagonia, a culture that has many characteristics in common, despite the differ- ences that are observed among the various countries and within them. These points of convergence are more relevant than those of divergence, and are related to language, history, tradition, philosophy of life, and social conscience.

It’s accurate---this is the Latin American point of view

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Geographers, it should be noted, giving priority to contiguous landmasses and bodies of water rather than to historical processes or cultural commonalities, traditionally divide the Americas into two continents and two regions. The continents are North America (from northern Canada to the isthmus of Panama) and South America (from the Panama-Colombia border to the southern tip of Tierra del Fuego, an island south of the straight of Magellan). The sub-regions are Central America (from Guatemala to Panama) and the Caribbean (the islands from the Bahamas and Cuba in the northwest to Trinidad and Tobago in the southeast). These different approaches to regional divisions and groupings have led to confusion as frequent as it is superficial. For example, Mexico might be placed in North America by geographers (and in the names of such economic and political arrangements as the North American Free Trade Agreement, NAFTA), but it is definitely part of Latin America for historians. And Puerto Rico, an island of the Caribbean, is politically attached to the United States, but is historically and culturally part of Latin America.

Holloway ‘08 (Thomas H.- author of “A Companion to Latin American History”; “Latin America: What’s in a Name?”; January 2008; http://www.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-1405131616.html>)

Geographers divide the Americas into two continents and two regions. North America ( and South America The sub-regions are Central America and the Caribbean Mexico might be placed in North America by geographers but it is definitely part of Latin America for historians. And Puerto Rico, an island of the Caribbean, is politically attached to the United States, but is historically and culturally part of Latin America

Geographers initiated the term---it’s not violent, simply convenient for productive discussions

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