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Falloon, P. D.; Dankers, R.; Betts, R. A.; Jones, C. D.; Booth, B. B. B.; Lambert, F. H.

Role of vegetation change in future climate under the A1B scenario and a climate stabilisation scenario, using the HadCM3C Earth system model

BIOGEOSCIENCES

The aim of our study was to use the coupled climate-carbon cycle model HadCM3C to quantify climate impact of ecosystem changes over recent decades and under future scenarios, due to changes in both atmospheric CO2 and surface albedo. We use two future scenarios - the IPCC SRES A1B scenario, and a climate stabilisation scenario (2C20), allowing us to assess the impact of climate mitigation on results. We performed a pair of simulations under each scenario - one in which vegetation was fixed at the initial state and one in which vegetation changes dynamically in response to climate change, as determined by the interactive vegetation model within HadCM3C. In our simulations with interactive vegetation, relatively small changes in global vegetation coverage were found, mainly dominated by increases in shrub and needleleaf trees at high latitudes and losses of broadleaf trees and grasses across the Amazon. Globally this led to a loss of terrestrial carbon, mainly from the soil. Global changes in carbon storage were related to the regional losses from the Amazon and gains at high latitude. Regional differences in carbon storage between the two scenarios were largely driven by the balance between warming-enhanced decomposition and altered vegetation growth. Globally, interactive vegetation reduced albedo acting to enhance albedo changes due to climate change. This was mainly related to the darker land surface over high latitudes (due to vegetation expansion, particularly during December-January and March-May); small increases in albedo occurred over the Amazon. As a result, there was a relatively small impact of vegetation change on most global annual mean climate variables, which was generally greater under A1B than 2C20, with markedly stronger local-to-regional and seasonal impacts. Globally, vegetation change amplified future annual temperature increases by 0.24 and 0.15K (under A1B and 2C20, respectively) and increased global precipitation, with reductions in precipitation over the Amazon and increases over high latitudes. In general, changes were stronger over land - for example, global temperature changes due to interactive vegetation of 0.43 and 0.28K under A1B and 2C20, respectively. Regionally, the warming influence of future vegetation change in our simulations was driven by the balance between driving factors. For instance, reduced tree cover over the Amazon reduced evaporation (particularly during June-August), outweighing the cooling influence of any small albedo changes. In contrast, at high latitudes the warming impact of reduced albedo (particularly during December-February and March-May) due to increased vegetation cover appears to have offset any cooling due to small evaporation increases. Climate mitigation generally reduced the impact of vegetation change on future global and regional climate in our simulations. Our study therefore suggests that there is a need to consider both biogeochemical and biophysical effects in climate adaptation and mitigation decision making.

2012

10.5194/bg-9-4739-2012

Nelson, Harry W.; Williamson, Tim B.; Macaulay, Casey; Mahony, Colin

Assessing the potential for forest management practitioner participation in climate change adaptation

FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT

The sensitivity of forests to local climate and the long time periods involved in forest management combine to result in conditions where forests and forest management are vulnerable to climate change. Minimizing the risks and impacts of climate change on forest management outcomes and reducing the vulnerability of forest management systems requires adaptation. Forest management system adaptation is a multi-scale incremental process that involves diverse actors collaborating to define issues, develop options, and implement solutions. Enabling adaptation may require revising assumptions (e.g., assumptions about stationary climate), upgrading formal and informal institutions (including mandates), re-engineering governance, addressing knowledge gaps and information management issues, and changing practices. Given the heightened uncertainty associated with climate change, adaptation also includes enhancing capacities, reducing risks through diversification, increasing flexibility, and enhancing resiliency by creating decision environments conducive to learning, foresight, knowledge integration, and adaptive management. Forest management practitioners have a fundamental role in identifying, evaluating, and implementing climate change adaptation measures. This study develops and applies a framework (derived from recent scholarship on adaptation) for assessing the perceptions of forest management practitioners about issues, challenges, and factors that they consider important relative to their potential to contribute to climate change adaptation. The framework draws from, and ties together various aspects of adaptation process including psychological factors, knowledge management, forest management capacity, institutions and governance, and the state of information methods that support forest management (i.e., planning, monitoring, and assessment). The framework is applied utilizing the results of surveys of forest practitioners in British Columbia, Canada. The application provides an opportunity to test concepts and to identify key barriers from a practitioner perspective. Proof of concept is tested by evaluating the extent to which respondents were able and willing to provide answers to survey questions. In general, responses were robust suggesting some understanding and recognition of the importance and validity of the underlying adaptation concepts by forest professionals. The results suggest that forest professionals have diverse viewpoints about climate change. The majority is concerned and support adaptation. However, a significant minority do not support modification of current forest management. Discourse, education, and engagement are called for. Other key factors that from the perspective of professionals may reduce participation potential include knowledge deficits, lack of mandate to adapt, limited resources for adaptation, institutional barriers, inadequate assessment, and persistence of planning and monitoring approaches that do not account for climate change.

2016

10.1016/j.foreco.2015.09.038

Munialo, Sussy; Siddique, Kadambot H. M.; Barker, Nigel P.; Onyango, Cecilia Moraa; Amissah, Jacqueline Naalamle; Wamalwa, Lydia Nanjala; Qwabe, Qinisani; Dougill, Andrew J.; Sibanda, Lindiwe Majele

Reorienting research investments toward under-researched crops for sustainable food systems

FOOD AND ENERGY SECURITY

The dominance of a few staple crops (maize, rice, and wheat) in most agricultural systems hampers the application of interventions to improve food security and nutrition. Research and development attention has focused on improving the production and utilization of these crops, leaving other crops under-researched and underutilized. Subsequently, there have been high malnutrition rates due to poor diet diversity, yet there are opportunity crops that remain under researched. The opportunity crops can unlock solutions to food insecurity, malnutrition, a lack of biodiversity, and indeed poor climate adaptation. The study explored diversification in agricultural systems to analyze whether reorientation of research investment to include under-researched crops can increase nutrient gain and enhance dietary diversity. Research outputs benchmarked as the number of publications from three leading African universities, Nairobi, Pretoria, and Ghana, were related to crop diversity and nutrition of crops in five clusters: cereals, vegetables, legumes, roots and tubers, and nuts. The findings show that maize was the predominantly researched crop across the three institutions. Low research outputs were observed for pearl millet, finger millet, and yam across the three institutions: amaranth and nightshade (Pretoria), sweet potatoes (Pretoria and Ghana), Marama bean (Nairobi), and soya bean (Nairobi and Ghana). There was nutrient gain across all five clusters, particularly from under-researched indigenous crops such as finger millet, amaranth, nightshade, yam, sweet potatoes, Marama bean, and soybean. Nutrient gain was contributed more by cereals and root and tuber crops from Pretoria, vegetables and nuts (Ghana), as well as legumes (Nairobi). The findings demonstrate that incorporating research on the least researched crops with successful integration of other research and development initiatives (policy and dissemination) can increase nutrition and improve dietary diversity. The nutrient gain will positively affect food security and nutrition, contributing to the achievement of Africa Agenda 2063, the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals, and reducing food imports. The findings can inform research investment and decision across different institutions within the African continent. Research investment targeting crops such as finger millet, amaranthus, sweet potatoes, soya beans, and cashew nuts is needed considering the nutritional contribution, climate change adaptability, market potential, and biodiversity contribution. Further analysis should explore production, socio-economic (marketability and income generation), and environmental gains (adaptive ability to climate change) for specific crops. The development of frameworks to guide the analysis of the nature and scope of factors affecting the contribution of these crops to food security and nutrition, as well as research on specific crops considering geographic distribution and institutional involvement, is also needed.

2024

10.1002/fes3.538

Crncevic, Tijana; Lovren, Violeta Orlovic

Displacement and climate change: improving planning policy and increasing community resilience

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGIES AND MANAGEMENT

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to present the major gaps in the field of planning policy and its implementation regarding climate change and disaster risk reduction (DRR), with special reference to the displacement of people, together with the knowledge needed to increase community resilience. The researched relations are illustrated by the example of Serbia. The Republic of Serbia has been faced with increasingly visible impacts of climate change in recent years-floods, heat waves, droughts and others. During the floods that hit Serbia in 2014, over 30,000 people experienced displacement. These events have triggered numerous efforts, both to repair the incurred damage and to analyze opportunities for prevention. Design/methodology/approach - This research has used document analysis to investigate contemporary approaches defined by policies, programs and research reports regarding climate change and DRR, with special reference to the displacement of people. An analytical framework has been used to evaluate to what extent the planning policy framework in Serbia addresses these issues in the context of achieving resilient development. Secondary analysis of research data has been used to recognize the gaps and identify needs for increasing community resilience. Findings-Based on the growing trends in projections of climate change as a result of induced natural disasters for the region in the future and international trends in coping with these issues, this paper argues that it is necessary to improve the implementation of the planning policy framework and the capacities of professionals and citizens, to reduce future displacement and increase community resilience to climate change. The key weaknesses found within DRR and the emergency management system in Serbia were the lack of an appropriate information base of the cadastre of risk zones and the lack of information and coordination of actors on the local to the national level. During the pre-disaster period, findings stress a weak partnership and capacity development practice at the local level, as well as between local responsible bodies and regional/national entities in charge of emergency management and DRR. The paper singles out the main preconditions for achieving effective resilient planning, so that such a plan can move people away from marginal areas and provide living conditions that are resilient. Originality/value - This paper provides a comprehensive insight analysis of the relations between climate change and DRR, with special reference to the planning policy. Using the lessons learned from the recent climate-induced disaster with its implications on displacement, the paper identifies needs for strengthening capacities to establish more resilient communities in Serbia. The gaps and needs identified, as well as the recommendations provided, may be of value for neighboring countries as well, who face similar challenges in climate change adaptation and who need to increase disaster risk resilience.

2018

10.1108/IJCCSM-05-2017-0103

Ning, Ding; Vetrova, Varvara; Bryan, Karin R.; Koh, Yun Sing

Harnessing the Power of Graph Representation in Climate Forecasting: Predicting Global Monthly Mean Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies

EARTH AND SPACE SCIENCE

The variability of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is crucial in climate dynamics, influencing marine ecosystems and human activities. This study leverages graph neural networks (GNNs), specifically a GraphSAGE model, to forecast SSTs and their anomalies (SSTAs), focusing on the global scale structure of climatological data. We introduce an improved graph construction technique for SST teleconnection representation. Our results highlight the GraphSAGE model's capability in 1-month-ahead global SST and SSTA forecasting, with SST predictions spanning up to 2 years with a recursive approach. Notably, regions with persistent currents exhibited enhanced SSTA predictability, contrasting with equatorial and Antarctic areas. Our GNN outperformed both the persistence model and traditional methods. Additionally, we offer an SST and SSTA graph data set based on ERA5 and a graph generation tool. This GNN case study has shown how the GraphSAGE can be used in SST and SSTA forecasting, and will provide a foundation for further refinements such as adjusting graph construction, optimizing imbalanced regression techniques for extreme SSTAs, and integrating GNNs with other temporal pattern learning methods to improve long-term predictions. Have you ever wondered how scientists predict climate changes like warming oceans or unusual weather patterns? Our team is improving these predictions by focusing on sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and SST anomalies (SSTAs)-changes in ocean temperatures that greatly impact our environment and society. Traditionally, scientists use grid-based machine learning models for these forecasts. We have taken a new approach using graph neural networks (GNNs), which are excellent at learning spatial patterns. This method does not just predict temperatures; it understands how different ocean areas are interconnected. Our technique successfully forecasts SSTs up to 2 years ahead and SSTAs 1 month in advance, particularly in regions with strong ocean currents. This accuracy is crucial for anticipating and preparing for climate impacts on marine and human activities. We have developed tools and data sets for researchers, which will foster advancements in graph-based climate forecasting. Our findings demonstrate that using appropriate graph re-sampling and GNNs can help understand the complex climate system. In summary, we are pioneering new ways to predict ocean temperature changes through machine learning, contributing to our understanding of and adaptation to climate change. This work benefits not just scientists, but anyone interested in climate and ocean studies. Explores the power of graph representation for global sea surface temperature (SST) and SST anomaly (SSTA) forecasting Addresses the issues with traditional grid-based models and provides an SST graph data set and a tool for converting SST grid data to graphs Shows the efficacy of the GraphSAGE model for global SST and SSTA forecasting and identifies the regions where SSTAs are more predictable

2024

10.1029/2023EA003455

Asmael, Nazeer; Dupuy, Alain; Mclachlan, Paul; Franceschi, Michel

Hydro-Geochemical Characteristics of the Shallow Alluvial Aquifer and Its Potential Artificial Recharge to Sustain the Low Flow of the Garonne River

WATER

The complex and interconnected water challenges linked to global climate change and natural and anthropogenic water resources pressure have become major challenges in the 21st century. The Garonne River and its accompanying alluvial aquifers are considered the most important source for agricultural activities in the Garonne Valley, Nouvelle-Aquitaine Region, southwest France. The water is used for irrigation in summer and to reduce frost damage in spring. The alluvial shallow aquifer is recharged by rainfall, lateral inflow from the hillside, and seepage from the riverbed during the flood periods. The aquifer maintains the flow of the river during dry periods. Moreover, the potential recharge of this aquifer is particularly sensitive to annual climatic fluctuations and consequently affects surrounding ecosystems and related socio-economic activities. The increasing impacts of climate change have increased the concern about the availability of these resources. Various adaptation strategies have been considered to mitigate and adapt to the new situation in southwest France. The artificial recharge of the alluvial aquifer is one such regional adaptation strategy to adapt to climate change. The study has two main objectives: to assess the natural and anthropogenic influence on the groundwater chemistry, and to model water infiltration, and understand the aquifer response and, consequently, the effects on river baseflow. The TAG (Technopole Agen-Garonne) project aims to increase the economic wealth of the region while respecting the region's agricultural traditions. Runoff water from the TAG zone is collected in retention basins and is a potential source to recharge the shallow alluvial aquifer. Sampling campaigns were carried out during the summer of 2019 to collect groundwater samples from several observation wells. Groundwater levels were measured in 132 wells/boreholes to determine the groundwater level fluctuations and create piezometric maps. Piper, spatial distribution, and ionic ratio plots were used to determine the dominant hydrochemical processes and to delineate the hydrochemical facies in the study area. The groundwater chemistry is controlled by silicate weathering and anthropogenic influence. Groundwater quality appears to be affected by the river water in the wells located in the low plain area. The measurements showed that the groundwater levels in the wells located near the river increase more than 2 m after a flood event. The artificial recharge has increased the groundwater level by more than 1 m close to the infiltration basin after a rainstorm. Similarly, a three-dimensional (3D) groundwater model shows a similar magnitude aquifer response to the induced infiltration. The modeling-obtained result shows that the infiltrated water would take about 4 months to reach the Garonne River, which is an appropriate time to maintain the river's low-flow and thermal buffering capacity, and thus the functioning of its ecosystems during dry periods.

2023

10.3390/w15162972

Wouters, Hendrik; Petrova, Irina Y.; van Heerwaarden, Chiel C.; de Arellano, Jordi Vila-Guerau; Teuling, Adriaan J.; Meulenberg, Vicky; Santanello, Joseph A.; Miralles, Diego G.

Atmospheric boundary layer dynamics from balloon soundings worldwide: CLASS4GL v1.0

GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT

The coupling between soil, vegetation and atmosphere is thought to be crucial in the development and intensification of weather extremes, especially meteorological droughts, heat waves and severe storms. Therefore, understanding the evolution of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) and the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks is necessary for earlier warnings, better climate projection and timely societal adaptation. However, this understanding is hampered by the difficulties of attributing cause-effect relationships from complex coupled models and the irregular space-time distribution of in situ observations of the land-atmosphere system. As such, there is a need for simple deterministic appraisals that systematically discriminate land-atmosphere interactions from observed weather phenomena over large domains and climatological time spans. Here, we present a new interactive data platform to study the behavior of the ABL and land-atmosphere interactions based on worldwide weather balloon soundings and an ABL model. This software tool - referred to as CLASS4GL (http://class4gl.eu, last access: 27 May 2018) - is developed with the objectives of (a) mining appropriate global observational data from similar to 15 million weather balloon soundings since 1981 and combining them with satellite and reanalysis data and (b) constraining and initializing a numerical model of the daytime evolution of the ABL that serves as a tool to interpret these observations mechanistically and deterministically. As a result, it fully automizes extensive global model experiments to assess the effects of land and atmospheric conditions on the ABL evolution as observed in different climate regions around the world. The suitability of the set of observations, model formulations and global parameters employed by CLASS4GL is extensively validated. In most cases, the framework is able to realistically reproduce the observed daytime response of the mixed-layer height, potential temperature and specific humidity from the balloon soundings. In this extensive global validation exercise, a bias of 10.1 mh(-1), -0.036 Kh(-1) and 0.06 g kg(-1) h(-1) is found for the morning-to-afternoon evolution of the mixed-layer height, potential temperature and specific humidity. The virtual tool is in continuous development and aims to foster a better process understanding of the drivers of the ABL evolution and their global distribution, particularly during the onset and amplification of weather extremes. Finally, it can also be used to scrutinize the representation of land-atmosphere feedbacks and ABL dynamics in Earth system models, numerical weather prediction models, atmospheric reanalysis and satellite retrievals, with the ultimate goal of improving local climate projections, providing earlier warning of extreme weather and fostering a more effective development of climate adaptation strategies. The tool can be easily down-loaded via http://class4gl.eu (last access: 27 May 2018) and is open source.

2019

10.5194/gmd-12-2139-2019

Wang, Deli; Wang, Ling

A new perspective on the concept of grassland management

CHINESE SCIENCE BULLETIN-CHINESE

As the largest managed terrestrial ecosystem on the earth, grasslands play the irreplaceable important roles in the production of livestock husbandry, the protection of regional ecological environment, and the preservation of pastoral nationality and their cultural heritages. Grasslands are considered as natural resources supporting primarily for food production in the past but increasingly for human wellbeing now. The utilization efficiency and productivity of the grassland resources are strongly dependent upon grassland management practices such as grazing and cutting, forage production, vegetation stability, to name a few. The implication, scope, and significance of grassland resources continuously expand with increasing awareness and improved management of human on grassland values. Traditionally, grasslands are used as the important means of production and livelihood for human beings because they can provide sustainable livestock products (such as meat, milk, and wool) and ecological services (such as carbon storage and biodiversity conservation). At present, grasslands are often referred to as a living capital, and such capital benefit of grasslands is determined by grassland characteristics, management mode, and governance, and thereby grassland management is a central issue for grassland ecosystem sustainability. The traditional grassland management is mainly based on control of livestock carrying capacity or stocking rate, aiming at increasing animal and plant productivity. However, it is considerably difficult to determine a realistically achievable carrying capacity, given that natural grasslands are heterogeneous in vegetation and temporal primary production as a result of environmental fluctuations. As the impacts of environmental changes and human activities increase, it is necessary to carry out targeted grassland management (such as climate change adaptation, biodiversity loss, degradation). Adaptive grassland management emphasizes the maintenance of grassland systematical productivity and ecological sustainability by ensuring livestock-vegetation balance. That is, the practice of grassland management should conform to the complexity of frequent climatic stresses and intensively human disturbance. When social demand for grassland products and ecological services continues to increase, adaptive management strategy should transition towards multi-functional management strategy. The core of multi-functional management is to exert synergistic effects on the functions and services of grassland ecosystems. Such management involves vegetation, soil, livestock, environment, economy, and society. Only by optimizing and coupling the structure, process, and function of grassland ecosystem and applying auxiliary energy input and artificial regulation can the multi-functional management be accomplished. The development of grassland management practices needs not only strong multidisciplinary theoretical support but also robust technical foundation.

2019

10.1360/N972018-01036

Meshesha, Abyiot Teklu; Birhanu, Belay Simane; Ayele, Mintewab Bezabih

Effects of perceptions on adoption of climate-smart agriculture innovations: empirical evidence from the upper Blue Nile Highlands of Ethiopia

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGIES AND MANAGEMENT

Purpose This study aims to examine smallholder farmers' perceptions toward the adoption of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) in smallholder farmers in the Upper Blue Nile Highlands of Ethiopia. Available research focused on profitability and economic constraints alone, disregarding the farmers' perception of the adoption of CSA innovations. There is relatively little empirical work on farmers' perceptions of innovations. Hence, a critical research gap that will strengthen CSA innovation research and practice includes understanding farmers' perceptions about CSA innovations and how these perceptions interact with their adoption. Design/methodology/approach A cross-sectional household survey was conducted among 424 smallholder farmers selected from five agro-ecosystems. A structured questionnaire was used to collect primary data and a review of literature and documents was used to collect secondary data. The study used a multivariate probit model to examine perception factors affecting the likelihood of adopting multiple CSA innovations. The dependent variables were eight CSA innovations, while the independent variables were crafted from the three pillars of CSA. Findings Major CSA innovations adopted by farmers include improved variety, crop residue management, crop rotation, compost, row planting, soil and water conservation, intercropping and agroforestry. Farmers' perception toward CSA innovations includes: CSA innovations sustainably increase productivity and income; enhance soil fertility; diversify livestock feed and energy sources; reduce soil erosion, weed infestation and crop failure; enhance soil organic matter, reduce chemical fertilizer use and rehabilitate land. Farmers' positive perceptions of the benefits of CSA innovations for increasing crop productivity, reducing agricultural vulnerability to climate change and lowering farm greenhouse gas emissions have boosted adoption. Practical implications Farmers' perceptions toward CSA innovations must be enhanced to increase the adoption of CSA innovations in the smallholder agriculture system. The CSA innovation scale-up strategies should focus on farmers' perception of CSA innovation benefits toward food security, climate change adaption and mitigation outcomes. Awareness of CSA needs the close collaboration of public extension as well as local institutions such as farmers' training centers. Originality/value The study adopts a multivariate probit model that models farmers' simultaneous CSA innovation choices. Hence, this study contributes to the literature in four significant areas. First, it argues for differential treatment of the perception of smallholder farmers about innovations is needed. Second, it recognizes the interdependence of the adoption of innovations. Third, it directly assesses the farmers' perception, while others use proxies to measure it. Finally, there are limited or no studies that address the perception of innovations within the lens of adopter perception theory.

2022

10.1108/IJCCSM-04-2021-0035

Guo, Danlu; Thomas, Jacqueline; Lazaro, Alfred; Mahundo, Clarence; Lwetoijera, Dickson; Mrimi, Emmanuel; Matwewe, Fatuma; Johnson, Fiona

Understanding the Impacts of Short-Term Climate Variability on Drinking Water Source Quality: Observations From Three Distinct Climatic Regions in Tanzania

GEOHEALTH

Climate change is expected to increase waterborne diseases especially in developing countries. However, we lack understanding of how different types of water sources (both improved and unimproved) are affected by climate change, and thus, where to prioritize future investments and improvements to maximize health outcomes. This is due to limited knowledge of the relationships between source water quality and the observed variability in climate conditions. To address this gap, a 20-month observational study was conducted in Tanzania, aiming to understand how water quality changes at various types of sources due to short-term climate variability. Nine rounds of microbiological water quality sampling were conducted for Escherichia coli and total coliforms, at three study sites within different climatic regions. Each round included approximately 233 samples from water sources and 632 samples from households. To identify relationships between water quality and short-term climate variability, Bayesian hierarchical modeling was adopted, allowing these relationships to vary with source types and sampling regions to account for potentially different physical processes. Across water sources, increases in E. coli/total coliform levels were most closely related to increases in recent heavy rainfall. Our key recommendations to future longitudinal studies are (a) demonstrated value of high sampling frequency and temporal coverage (a minimum of 3 years) especially during wet seasons; (b) utility of the Bayesian hierarchical models to pool data from multiple sites while allowing for variations across space and water sources; and (c) importance of a multidisciplinary team approach with consistent commitment and sharing of knowledge. Plain Language Summary It is vital to understand how different types of water sources (both improved and unimproved) are influenced by changing climate conditions. This is needed to appreciate the reliability of these water sources in the future. A 20-month observational study was carried out in Tanzania to explore these relationships. Nine rounds of sampling were conducted across three study sites within different climatic regions, with fecal pathogen levels sampled at both water sources and households. A novel statistical model was developed to link water quality change with types of water quality and climate variability. We found that across different source types, the increases in fecal pathogen levels are most closely related to increases in recent heavy rainfall. We recommend that future studies to include at least 3 years of data collection. The successful study design here shows the value of multidisciplinary teams to ensure that appropriate statistical modeling structure can be used to analyze the data and provide new information for climate change adaptation. In the long term, such studies will provide evidence for decision-makers to prioritize future water investments and improvements to maximize public health outcomes.

2019

10.1029/2018GH000180

Chen, Jie; Shi, Xinyan; Gu, Lei; Wu, Guiyang; Su, Tianhua; Wang, Hui-Min; Kim, Jong-Suk; Zhang, Liping; Xiong, Lihua

Impacts of climate warming on global floods and their implication to current flood defense standards

JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY

Floods usually threaten human lives and cause serious economic losses, which can be more severe with global warming. Therefore, it is a salient challenge to find out how global flood characteristic changes and whether current flood protection standards will face more pressures. This study aims to characterize changes in global floods and explicit flood defense pressures in warming climates of 1.5-3.0 degrees C above pre-industrial levels by running four well-calibrated lumped hydrological models using bias-corrected Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations for 9045 watersheds worldwide. The results show that global warming from 1.5 to 3.0 degrees C has increasingly dominated all continents, with amplification effects on changes of flood frequency and magnitude. Southeast Eurasia, Africa, and South America are hotspots of changes for significant proportions of watersheds with larger flood patterns and greater changing extents than others. For example, for the 3.0 degrees C warming period under the combination of shared socioeconomic pathway 2 and representative concentration pathway 4.5 (SSP245) scenario, the regionally averaged 50-year flood magnitude will increase by 25.6 %, 30.6 %, and 16.4 % for these regions, respectively. The increases in occurrence and magnitude indicate that current flood protection standards will face increasing pressures in future warming climates. The design-level flood frequency is projected to increase for about 47 %, 55 %, 70 %, and 74 % of watersheds in 1.5, 2.0, 2.5, and 3.0 degrees C warming periods under the SSP245 scenario. However, large uncertainty are observed for the change of flood characteristics dominated by GCMs and their interactions with SSP scenarios and hydrological models. This study implies that the current flood defense standards should be enhanced and climate adaptation and mitigation strategies should be proposed to cope the change of future flood.Plain language summary: Floods usually threaten human lives and cause serious economic losses, which can be more severe in the context of global warming. It is a salient challenge to find out how global flood risk changes and whether current flood protection standards will face more pressures. This study aims to characterize changes in global floods and explicit flood defense pressures in warming climates of 1.5, 2.0, 2.5, and 3.0 degrees C above pre-industrial levels. Here we show that amplification effects of higher air temperature on the range of changes in flood frequency and magnitude are projected. Southeast Eurasia, Africa, and South America are hotspots of changes for significant proportions of watersheds with larger flood patterns and greater changing extents than others. Most watersheds worldwide is likely to face increasing flood defense pressures in warming climates. Our findings could improve the understanding of future flood conditions under the warming climates and provide information to mitigation and adaptation policymaking.

2023

10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129236

Araya, A.; Kisekka, I.; Girma, A.; Hadgu, K. M.; Tegebu, F. N.; Kassa, A. H.; Ferreira-Filho, H. R.; Beltrao, N. E.; Afewerk, A.; Abadi, B.; Tsehaye, Y.; Martorano, L. G.; Abraha, A. Z.

The challenges and opportunities for wheat production under future climate in Northern Ethiopia

JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCE

Wheat is an important crop in the highlands of Northern Ethiopia and climate change is expected to be a major threat to wheat productivity. However, the potential impacts of climate change and adaptation on wheat yield has not been documented for this region. Wheat field experiments were carried out during the 2011-2013 cropping seasons in Northern Ethiopia to: (1) calibrate and evaluate Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM)-wheat model for exploring the impacts of climate change and adaptation on wheat yield; (2) explore the response of wheat cultivar/s to possible change in climate and carbon dioxide (CO2) under optimal and sub-optimal fertilizer application and (3) assess the impact of climate change and adaptation practices on wheat yield based on integration of surveyed field data with climate simulations using multi-global climate models (GCMs; for short- and mid-term periods) for the Hintalo-Wajrat areas of Northern Ethiopia. The treatments were two levels of fertilizer (optimal and zero fertilization); treatments were replicated three times and arranged in a randomized complete block design. All required information for model calibration and evaluation were gathered from experimental studies. In addition, a household survey was conducted in 2012 in Northern Ethiopia. Following model calibration and performance testing, response of wheat to various nitrogen (N) fertilizer rates, planting date, temperature and combinations of other climate variables and CO2 were assessed. Crop simulations were conducted with future climate scenarios using 20 different GCMs and compared with a baseline. In addition, simulations were carried out using climate data from five different GCM with and without climate change adaptation practices. The simulated yield showed clear responses to changes in temperature, N fertilizer and CO2. Regardless of choice of cultivar, increasing temperatures alone (by up to 5 degrees C compared with the baseline) resulted in reduced yield while the addition of other factors (optimal fertilizer with elevated CO2) resulted in increased yield. Considering optimal fertilizer (64kg/ha N) as an adaptation practice, wheat yield in the short-term (2010-2039) and mid-term (2040-2069) may increase at least by 40%, compared with sub-optimal N levels. Assuming CO2 and present wheat management is unchanged, simulation results based on 20 GCMs showed that median wheat yields will reduce by 10% in the short term and by 11% in the mid-term relative to the baseline data, whereas under changed CO2 with present management, wheat yield will increase slightly, by up to 8% in the short term and by up to 11% in the mid-term period, respectively. Wheat yield will substantially increase, by more than 100%, when simulated based on combined use of optimal planting date and fertilizer applications. Increased temperature in future scenarios will cause yield to decline, whereas CO2 is expected to have positive impacts on wheat yield.

2017

10.1017/S0021859616000460

Derner, Justin; Briske, David; Reeves, Matt; Brown-Brandl, Tami; Meehan, Miranda; Blumenthal, Dana; Travis, William; Augustine, David; Wilmer, Hailey; Scasta, Derek; Hendrickson, John; Volesky, Jerry; Edwards, Laura; Peck, Dannele

Vulnerability of grazing and confined livestock in the Northern Great Plains to projected mid- and late-twenty-first century climate

CLIMATIC CHANGE

The Northern Great Plains (NGP) region of the USA-which comprises Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska-is a largely rural area that provides numerous ecosystem services, including livestock products, cultural services, and conservation of biological diversity. The region contains 25% of the Nation's beef cattle and approximately one-third of the confined beef cattle, as well as the largest remaining native prairie in the US-the Northern Mixedgrass Prairie. With rising atmospheric CO2, the NGP is projected to experience warmer and longer growing seasons, greater climatic variability, and more extreme events (e.g., increased occurrence of large precipitation events). These climatic changes may affect livestock production both directly via physiological impacts on animals and indirectly via modifications to forage, invasion of undesirable plants, and increased exposure to parasites. This raises concerns about the vulnerability of grazing livestock operations and confined livestock operations to projected changes in mid- (2050) and late- (2085) twenty-first century climate. Our objectives are to (1) describe the NGP's exposure to temperature and precipitation trends, inter-annual variability, and extreme events; (2) evaluate the sensitivity of beef cattle production to direct and indirect effects imposed by these projected climatic changes; and (3) provide a typology of adaptation strategies to minimize adverse consequences of projected changes and maximize beneficial consequences. Agricultural managers have developed considerable adaptive capacity to contend with environmental and economic variability. However, projected climatic changes, especially the increased frequency and magnitude of weather extremes, will require even greater adaptive capacity to maintain viable production systems. Consequently, regional vulnerability to projected climatic changes will be determined not only by ecological responses but also by the adaptive capacity of individual managers. Adaptive capacity in the NGP will differ from other regions, in part because projections suggest some opportunities for increased livestock production. Adaptations in both grazing and confined beef cattle systems will require enhanced decision-making skills capable of integrating biophysical, social, and economic considerations. Social learning networks that support integration of experimental and experiential knowledge-such as lessons learned from early adopters and involvement with science-based organizations-can help enhance decision-making and climate adaptation planning. Many adaptations have already been implemented by a subset of producers in this region, providing opportunities for assessment, further development, and greater adoption. Context-specific decision-making can also be enhanced through science-management partnerships, which aim to build adaptive capacity that recognizes multiple production and conservation/environmental goals.

2018

10.1007/s10584-017-2029-6

Zagaria, Cecilia; Schulp, Catharina J. E.; Zavalloni, Matteo; Viaggi, Davide; Verburg, Peter H.

Modelling transformational adaptation to climate change among crop farming systems in Romagna, Italy

AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS

As the impact of climate change on the agricultural sector has begun to manifest itself in its severity, adaptation planning has come under scrutiny for favoring the preservation of status-quo conditions over more substantial changes. The uptake of transformational adaptations, involving a significant re-structuring of the agricultural system, is however hindered by a lack of assessment tools capable of quantifying the effects of these often more complex, far-reaching, and unprecedented changes. Agent-based models can simulate decision processes and multi-level feedbacks between system components and may therefore illustrate how transformational adaptations emerge and help identify cases where their implementation is necessary and desirable. We explore this modelling potential and aim to quantify (1) how climate change, farmer behavior and water policies may influence strategic adaptation decision-making at the farm-level, (2) the extent to which implemented adaptations represent transformations, and (3) their impact on farm structure and wider socio-ecological change. We investigate these aims through a case study of crop farming systems in the drought-prone historical region of Romagna (NE Italy), integrating insight from stakeholder interviews, local reports, spatially-explicit biophysical data and behavioral theory in the construction of an agent-based model. Results show that, on average, more than half of all implemented adaptations are transformations, thereby requiring important social and financial investments from farmers. The number of implemented transformations is highest in scenarios where drought risk perception among farmers is more widespread, notably in scenarios simulating drier climates, more adaptive behaviors and policies promoting greater water use efficiency. Under higher drought risk perception, farmers are motivated to explore a broader set of adaptations, including those outside of the trajectory determined by their farming strategy. This process particularly favors the implementation of transformational increases in farm size and irrigated area, eventually stimulating farmers to adopt an expansionist strategy. Regionally, these adaptations lead to the smallest decline in agricultural extent with fewest, yet highest profit-earning farmers, largely exacerbating presently occurring trends. Under policy scenarios simulating increased irrigation availability, fewer farmers initially experience drought and therefore perceive a drought risk. Consequently, fewer farmers undertake transformational adaptations and switch from a contractive to an expansive strategy, culminating in a relatively smaller and less profitable agricultural extent despite a larger farmer population. As transformative changes to farming strategy trigger farmers to engage in new path-dependencies, aims of water policies may therefore rebound into unintended effects, emphasizing the importance of accounting for transformational perspectives.

2021

10.1016/j.agsy.2020.103024

De Pauw, Eddy; Ramasamy, Selvaraju

Rapid detection of stressed agricultural environments in Africa under climatic change 2000?2050 using agricultural resource indices and a hotspot mapping approach

WEATHER AND CLIMATE EXTREMES

Agricultural environments in Africa are most vulnerable to climate change because of extensive reliance on rainfed crop and livestock production, high intra-and inter-seasonal climate variability, recurrent extreme weather and climate events. The dependency of Africa's population on generating income mostly from the agricultural resource base combined with persistent poverty and food insecurity increases exposure and vulnerability to climate variability and climate change. In this paper an approach is outlined for the rapid identification of agricultural areas under stress due to potential mismatches between natural resource availability under changing climatic conditions and needs for a growing and largely agricultural population. In this approach spatial data on climate, soils, topography, and water resources for agriculture were converted into thematic indices to quantify spatial variations in the resource base under baseline 1960-1990 climatic conditions and climate change projections for 2050. These indices were combined to produce integrated agricultural resource availability indices, which were then combined with population density using a per-capita Agricultural Resource Availability Index, which was subjected to a hotspot-cold spot analysis. The hotspot-cold spot analysis allows to make a rapid synthesis of changes in the agricultural resource base under various climate change projections and population pressure. The results of the analysis indicate that in all African countries, the per-capita Agricultural Resource Availability Index tends to decline under climate change projections combined with population growth. Countries that currently already are hotspots (Burkina Faso, Burundi, Nigeria, Rwanda) remain hotspots entirely, whereas countries with significant 'cold spot' areas (Tanzania, Zimbabwe, and to a lesser extent Ethiopia) see these areas further turn into hotspots due to combined effect of population growth and climate change scenario used. The impact of climatic change is expected to be greater where rural populations are dense, poorer and largely dependent on income generation from agriculture. The analysis can serve as an exploratory medium-term and broad-spectrum forecasting tool for identifying areas that either already are or could eventually become stressed in their food security due to the combination of climate change and pressure on the resource base from population increase. Introducing capabilities in medium-term warning at the national level could be facilitated greatly by starting or strengthening the process of compiling relevant databases that allow a better synthesis within countries of the likely evolution of the agricultural resource base under climate change. Many data, even if imperfect, already exist for this purpose and could serve as very useful additions for national-level climate change adaptation responses, which offers principles, practices and options for 'cooling off' hotspots.

2020

10.1016/j.wace.2019.100211

Buzasi Attila; Csizovszky Anna

Sustainability and climate adaptation in urban development - lock-in analysis in Budapest XVII. district

TER ES TARSADALOM

Due to global warming, humanity has to face irreversible effects regarding social, environmental, and economic systems. Climate change and its impacts fundamentally affect the transition to sustainable development. Therefore beside sustainability, resilience is getting more and more popular in urban research. Despite the academic relevance, it is barely understood how these paradigms affect each other, particularly in practice. People, economic functions and related environmental encumbrances are densified in cities that are main contributors of global warming and related extreme weather events. Thus, urban areas play a crucial role in the adaptation to changing conditions. This study attempts to identify how the core spatial planning actions limit sustainability and resilience at the micro-level. The study area is the 17th District of Budapest, the capital of Hungary, but the used method can be adapted to other settlements based on local circumstances. Aspects of strong sustainability, adaptation to climate change, and lock-in are taken into account in three different but associated ex-ante surveys. Direct and indirect effects are deeply considered in the presented framework as part of a complex impact assessment. The elaborated method eases the identification of trade-offs, synergies, and potential lock-ins among the key projects at the design stage; hence it can be a beneficial ex-ante tool for decision-makers. The presented analysis can be used universally; however, the results depend significantly on local conditions, purposes, and the defined adaptation aspects. The applied methodology provides decision-making in urban development with a novel input, which was not or barely considered before, despite the fact that adaptation to climate change as a horizontal part of sustainable development is crucial. it is shown that these aspects can stay hidden in a comprehensive sustainability assessment. The identified adverse effects should not automatically mean the cancellation of the project. On the contrary, they can open decision-makers' and planners' eyes to potential issues, which risk long-term transition to sustainability. Besides, they indicate where more conscious and profound planning and implementing is required. In sum, the elaborated method is capable of a complex ex-ante impact assessment of urban planning projects. It can unveil previously hidden aspects of sustainability and potential path dependencies thus, it can be a useful tool for decision-makers and urban planners. After a short introduction, an academic review sums up linkages between the paradigms of sustainability and resilience. Then the description of the study area and methods are discussed, followed by the analysis of results, including synergies and trade-offs of the three ex-ante cases Finally, the potentials, limits, and challenges of the elaborated impact assessments are featured in the conclusion with recommendations for further research paths.

2021

10.17649/TET.35.1.3291

Das, Usha; Ansari, M. A.; Ghosh, Souvik

Effectiveness and upscaling potential of climate smart agriculture interventions: Farmers? participatory prioritization and livelihood indicators as its determinants

AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS

CONTEXT: Adaptation to climate change is crucial to achieve food security and sustainable agricultural devel-opment. United Nations Sustainable Development Goal on climate action urges to combat climate change im-pacts that are more pronounced in developing countries and on marginal & small farmers. Climate smart agriculture (CSA) that jointly addresses food security and sustainable agriculture systems has been emphasized, still adoption of CSA practices is low demanding a framework for location specific identification, prioritization and upscaling of CSA interventions.OBJECTIVE: Present study is contemplated to prioritize and upscale climate smart agriculture interventions in climatically vulnerable coastal and non-coastal ecosystems based on perceived effectiveness and upscaling po-tential by farmers. It also attempts to delineate the livelihood indicators of farmers influencing perceived effectiveness of CSA and its upscaling potential.METHODS: Farmers' participatory framework to prioritize CSA interventions in most climatically vulnerable coastal and non-coastal ecosystems of India, where National Innovations on Climate Resilience Agriculture (NICRA) programme of Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) has been implemented. Farmers have prioritized CSA interventions on the basis of four pillars of CSA giving maximum weightage to income followed by productivity, resilience, and mitigation in both coastal and non-coastal regions. While judging upscaling potential of CSA interventions, coastal district farmers have given highest weightage to technical feasibility followed by synergy with Govt. plans, cost of technology and gender inclusivity; contrastingly, highest weightage is given to cost of technology followed by gender inclusivity, technical feasibility and synergy with Govt. plans by the farmers of non-coastal district.RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Micro level stratifications of dominant livelihoods and their differential prefer-ences for CSA interventions (like scientific technology, institutional innovations, indigenous technical knowledge and information & communication technologies interventions) are unraveled. Climate smart agricultural pro-duction technologies prioritized are mainly resistant crop varieties & livestock breeds, intercropping, water management and vaccination of livestock; farmers have also preferred adaptation through indigenous technical knowledge to build resilience. However, adequate institutional infrastructures and use of ICTs are less than sufficient which needs strengthening. The major determinants of CSA effectiveness and upscaling potential in terms of farm livelihood indicators are revealed through multiple regression and path analyses.SIGNIFICANCE: This approach would be helpful for future policy advocacy to prioritize and upscale location specific CSA interventions so as to insulate farmers better from the climatic adversities in similar ecosystems of other developing countries.

2022

10.1016/j.agsy.2022.103515

Yeung, Yuki; Elliott, Susan J.

Investigating student perceptions and vulnerability to heat stress in campus residences using Reddit: Climate change, health, and wellbeing

CANADIAN GEOGRAPHIES-GEOGRAPHIES CANADIENNES

This exploratory research investigated the sufficiency of existing infrastructure to adapt to high temperatures and explored the perceptions of heat stress from students in on-campus residences at the U15 Group of Universities in Canada. The prevalence of air conditioning in student residences was used to estimate the adaptive capacity of existing infrastructure, and posts and comments on Reddit relevant to the perceptions of heat stress were collected in January 2023 through a query of relevant key words within each institution's subreddit. Most institutions (80%) had some residences with air conditioning. However, four main themes emerged through the thematic analysis of 409 posts and comments on Reddit: (1) complaints, (2) impacts on wellbeing, (3) adaptation strategies, and (4) climate change. The perceptions of heat stress from students suggest that existing available cooling strategies do not provide sufficient adaptation to high indoor temperatures. Recognizing student perceptions and experiences is necessary in designing and implementing future adaptation strategies to promote the health and wellbeing of postsecondary students in Canada. Cette etude exploratoire se penche sur l'efficacite des infrastructures existantes pour s'adapter aux temperatures elevees et analyse les perceptions du stress thermique des etudiants dans les residences sur les campus du groupe d'universites U15 au Canada. La prevalence de la climatisation dans les residences etudiantes a ete utilisee pour estimer la capacite d'adaptation des infrastructures existantes. De plus, les messages et commentaires sur Reddit relatifs a la perception du stress thermique ont ete recueillis en janvier 2023 par le biais d'une requete de mots cles dans le subreddit de chaque institution. La plupart des etablissements (80%) ont des residences climatisees. Cependant, quatre elements principaux ont emerge de l'analyse thematique de 409 messages et commentaires sur Reddit : (1) les plaintes, (2) les impacts sur le bien-etre, (3) les strategies d'adaptation et (4) le changement climatique. Les perceptions du stress thermique par les etudiants suggerent que les strategies de climatisation existantes sont insuffisantes. Il est necessaire de tenir compte de ces informations pour concevoir et mettre en oe uvre de futures strategies d'adaptation visant a promouvoir la sante et le bien-etre des etudiants de niveau postsecondaire au Canada. Extreme heat is a threat to global health and is of increasing concern, even in traditionally cold countries like Canada. The importance of extreme temperatures in the indoor environment is often overlooked despite its impact on health and wellbeing, and its significance in climate change adaptation. Postsecondary students are vulnerable to heat stress, with evidence suggesting that Canadian postsecondary students currently experience adverse impacts on wellbeing as a result of high indoor temperatures in on-campus residences.

2024

10.1111/cag.12912

Balde, Hamadou; Hmimina, Gabriel; Goulas, Yves; Latouche, Gwendal; Soudani, Kamel

Synergy between TROPOMI sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence and MODISspectral reflectance for understanding the dynamics of gross primaryproductivity at Integrated Carbon Observatory System (ICOS) ecosystem fluxsites

BIOGEOSCIENCES

An accurate estimation of vegetation gross primary productivity (GPP), which is the amount of carbon taken up by vegetation through photosynthesis for a given time and area, is critical for understanding terrestrial-atmosphere CO2 exchange processes and ecosystem functioning, as well as ecosystem responses and adaptations to climate change. Prior studies, based on ground, airborne, and satellite sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) observations, have recently revealed close relationships with GPP at different spatial and temporal scales and across different plant functional types (PFTs). However, questions remain regarding whether there is a unique relationship between SIF and GPP across different sites and PFTs and how we can improve GPP estimates using solely remotely sensed data. Using concurrent measurements of daily TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) SIF (daily SIFd); daily MODIS Terra and Aqua spectral reflectance; vegetation indices (VIs, notably normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), near-infrared reflectance of vegetation (NIRv), and photochemical reflectance index (PRI)); and daily tower-based GPP across eight major different PFTs, including mixed forests, deciduous broadleaf forests, croplands, evergreen broadleaf forests, evergreen needleleaf forests, grasslands, open shrubland, and wetlands, the strength of the relationships between tower-based GPP and SIFd at 40 Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS) flux sites was investigated. The synergy between SIFd and MODIS-based reflectance (R) and VIs to improve GPP estimates using a data-driven modeling approach was also evaluated. The results revealed that the strength of the hyperbolic relationship between GPP and SIFd was strongly site-specific and PFT-dependent. Furthermore, the generalized linear model (GLM), fitted between SIFd, GPP, and site and vegetation type as categorical variables, further supported this site- and PFT-dependent relationship between GPP and SIFd. Using random forest (RF) regression models with GPP as output and the aforementioned variables as predictors (R, SIFd, and VIs), this study also showed that the spectral reflectance bands (RF-R) and SIFd plus spectral reflectance (RF-SIF-R) models explained over 80 % of the seasonal and interannual variations in GPP, whereas the SIFd plus VI (RF-SIF-VI) model reproduced only 75 % of the tower-based GPP variance. In addition, the relative variable importance of predictors of GPP demonstrated that the spectral reflectance bands in the near-infrared, red, and SIFd appeared as the most influential and dominant factors determining GPP predictions, indicating the importance of canopy structure, biochemical properties, and vegetation functioning on GPP estimates. Overall, this study provides insights into understanding the strength of the relationships between GPP and SIF and the use of spectral reflectance and SIFd to improve estimates of GPP across sites and PFTs.

2023

10.5194/bg-20-1473-2023

Gercek, Deniz; Guven, Ismail Talih

Assessment of Mutual Variation of Near-Surface Air Temperature, Land Surface Temperature and Driving Urban Parameters at Urban Microscale

SUSTAINABILITY

The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect is of critical concern for cities' adaptation to climate change. The UHI effect shows substantial intra-urban variation at the city microscale, causing disparities in thermal comfort and energy consumption. Therefore, air temperature assessment should be prioritized for effective heat mitigation and climate adaptation. However, meteorological stations' spatial distribution is far from meeting the scale that the UHI and its driving parameters operate. This limitation hampers demonstrating the intra-city variability of UHI and its origin of sources; for example, most studies employ Land Surface Temperature (LST), usually without demonstrating the relationship between UHI and LST. The current body of knowledge on urban climate implies a much better understanding and more detailed information on the spatial pattern of UHI and the driving factors to provide decision-makers with tools to develop effective UHI mitigation and adaptation strategies. In an attempt to address the adequacy of the use of LST and UPs in describing the intra-city variability of UHI, this study investigates the relationship between LST daytime and nighttime, and air temperature (Ta) daytime and nighttime, and driving urban parameters (UPs) of UHI together. Although it is well recognized that the intensity of the UHI is characterized by Ta, particularly at night, so-called nocturnal UHI, the use of remotely sensed LST is common, owing to the lack of spatially detailed Ta data in cities. Our findings showed that nocturnal UHI is weakly correlated with nighttime LST with a Pearson correlation (r) of 0.335 at p > 0.05 and that it is not correlated with daytime LST for the case study, highlighting the need for Ta observations for representing the intra-urban variation of nocturnal UHI. Among UPs, Sky View Factor (SVF), Building Volume Density (BVD), and Road Network Density (RND) explained 69% of the variability of Ta nighttime that characterizes nocturnal UHI. Therefore, UPs that performed well in estimating nocturnal UHI may be used in the absence of densely distributed Ta measurements. In a further investigation of the urban cooling phenomenon based on UHI diurnal changes, a particular region with high nighttime temperatures spoiled the Ta daytime and nighttime coherence. This region is characterized by high Mean Building Height (MBH), BFD, and BVD that re-emits heat, low SVF that prevents urban cooling, and high RND that releases extra heat at night. These particular UPs can be of prior interest for urban cooling. The present study, exploring the relationships of LST and Ta in a diurnal context, offers a further understanding of the preference of LST, Ta, or UPs to characterize UHI. Ta, in relation to major causative factors (UPs), provides insights into addressing the localities most vulnerable to the UHI effect and possible strategies targeting heat mitigation for sustainability and climate change resilience.

2023

10.3390/su152215710

Miranda Sara, Liliana; Jameson, Shazade; Pfeffer, Karin; Baud, Isa

Risk perception: The social construction of spatial knowledge around climate change-related scenarios in Lima

HABITAT INTERNATIONAL

Lima's environmental sustainability is threatened by increasing water scarcity, heavy rain events and limited attention for water vulnerability and climate change scenarios. In this paper we examine how knowledge construction and risk perception on water-related disaster risks and vulnerabilities affects decision-making and implementation in urban governance networks, specifically looking at some of the reasons behind high levels of risk tolerance and the lack of decision-making initiatives in putting adaptation and/or preventive measures in place. New forms of metropolitan governance have constructed spatial knowledge about water-related vulnerabilities using inclusive scenario-building processes. These unpack complexities, uncertainties and spatial inequalities in water governance, making them visible by mapping and spatial representations as strategic instrument for social and policy learning. This article analyzes two case studies, which either already are or can become disasters (scenario building). The first, concerns the long-term plausible scenario of water scarcity and droughts analyzing population growth rates, water distribution and consumption through the Chance2Sustain research project and presenting spatial representations. The maps were used to define possible spatial intervention priorities to deal with future water vulnerabilities in Lima. The second, refers to short term extreme weather events that already manifest as mudslides and floods and El Nino in Chosica, eastern Lima. We investigate the first at the metropolitan city scale level and the second at the scale of vulnerable communities. The cases illustrate iterative spatial knowledge construction, in which processes of risk prioritization, normalization and tolerance occur, and the resulting [in-]action by a variety of actors so far. The methodology used collective and iterative mapping processes, using technical, organizational and geographical knowledge from a variety of governance, experts and practitioner networks in Lima. The main outcome is the social learning derived from bringing together different kinds of knowledge and integrating several dimensions through spatial representations. This has raised awareness, increased capacities for dealing with uncertainty and contributed to the approved metropolitan Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, but not implemented by the Lima Municipality yet. The main conclusions are two: 1) spatial planning is a quite political process (c.f. Flyvbjerg 1998), in which knowledge is contested or even when acknowledged, does not necessarily steer decision-making processes, either by local communities, authorities and private institutions. And 2) existing models linking knowledge construction to risk framing, risk tolerance and how these influence decision-making processes and actions to prevent disaster may ignore the issues of risk tolerance, through normalization and prioritization at their peril.

2016

10.1016/j.habitatint.2015.12.025

Tan, Qilu; Wen, Zongguo; Chen, Jining

Goal and technology path of CO2 mitigation in China's cement industry: from the perspective of co-benefit

JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION

The concept of co-benefit, a negotiation topic in CO2 mitigation attracts worldwide attention including China in coping with climate change. Energy saving technologies as common measures for CO2 abatement, generally lead to co-benefits of local air pollution (LAP) because most LAP emissions are generated from combustion of carbonic fuels along with CO2. However, in the technological dimension, there are technologies that induce opposite effects on the co-benefit of CO2 and LAP in specific industry sectors. Precalcinating line and shaft kiln, two types of technologies adopted in clinker calcinating procedure in cement industry are examples: the former consume less energy but emit more dust and NOx than the later. As a result, the overall co-benefits of LAP reductions for cement industry are uncertain. This study consequently aims at assessing the overall co-benefit (although it may be a negative co-benefit) of CO2 mitigation policy on dust, NOx, SO2 emissions in China's cement industry aggregately by establishing bottom-up optimization model on the basis of all types of technologies which are called technology system in cement production. CO2 mitigation goal, as represented by reduction rate is regarded as constraint input into the model. In order to investigate the evolution of co-benefits and technology paths with the change of CO2 mitigation goal, hundreds of reduction rates are selected randomly between the range 0.5-10.5%. The lower bound 0.5% reveals CO2 emission reduction that can be reached for cement industry under existing political constraints and without any extra CO2 mitigation goal. The upper bound 10.5% is the greatest reduction rate under which the model could derive feasible solution. According to changes of technology penetration rates as CO2 goal tightens, we could evaluate the more cost-effective technologies from the perspective of co-benefit. They are vertical milling, precalcinating line with the scale of 7000-10,000 ton/day, roll-squeezer belonging to Main Production Technology (MPT), utilization of cement grinding aids, multi-channel coal burner belonging to Affiliated Energy-saving technology (AES), combination of bag-filter and electrostatic precipitator and ultra-low NOx burning technology belonging to Pollution Control Technology (PCT). With respect to the evolution of co-benefits on air pollutions, when the CO2 reduction rate is below 2.3%, co-benefit of dust and SO2 reduction exist while that of NOx does not; and when the rate is above 2.3%, co-benefits of all the three pollutants exist. A practically referable goal of CO2 mitigation rate of short/mid-term is approximately 5.5% in view of the following three considerations: a) co-benefits augment as CO2 reduction rate increases; b) total cost increases as the CO2 abatement goal becomes stricter; and c) the majority of emerging technologies normally cannot penetrate to 100% in cement production within a relatively short time.

2016

10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.06.148

Ortega-Guerrero, Marcos Adrian

Groundwater flow and transport in fractured geological media: a review

REVISTA MEXICANA DE CIENCIAS GEOLOGICAS

The groundwater flow and the transport of solutes and contaminants in fractured geologic media play a very important role in various hydrogeological and geological processes. Fractures are discontinuities that occur in practically all types of rocks, consolidated and semi-consolidated sediments, in which groundwater flows at different scales of space and time. This article reviews more than 20 years of research in the CGEO of different selected examples in Mexico, from local to regional scales, associated with 1) gravitational Groundwater Flow Systems, 2) hydrogeochemical interaction of groundwater with fractured rocks through which it circulates, 3) instrumentation and coupled numerical analysis of flow parameters and time -varying geomechanics, during consolidation associated with pumping, 4) analysis of fracture generation with the development and application of coupled flow and geomechanical equations, 5) formation of new minerals, 6) sustenance of ecosystems, 7) artificial fracturing of soils for their conservation and infiltration of rainwater improvement; and on the issue of transport of natural solutes, 8) used as a tracers, 9) toxic elements to health and environment, 10) spills of hydrocarbon derivatives in low permeability and double porosity media due to fracturing and 11) heat. The results show the importance of the physical -chemical interaction between fractured and granular geological media at both local and regional scales, where groundwater residence times range from a few days to thousands of years; which implies modifying the criteria for water management and the permanence of ecosystems in the country. The complexity of these processes requires different methodologies for their evaluation, among them the instrumentation and calibration of numerical models from 1D to 3D for analysis, predictions and the proposal of restoration, sustainability and management solutions; they also help to prevent, control and mitigate the negative impacts on health and the environment caused by the induction of geogenic elements and by various types of pollutants; fractured geologic media also support numerous terrestrial and marine ecosystems; in the case of damaged agricultural soils, artificial fracturing allows increasing rainwater infiltration and improving productivity in adaptation to climate change and reducing the extraction in aquifers where safe capacity has been exceeded; unfortunately, excessive extraction in closed basins is causing fracturing of the aquitards, both hydraulic and due to differential settlement, which favors the migration of pore water rich in elements harmful to human health and the environment, whose natural function was its protection. All this requires designing mechanisms for the transfer of scientific knowledge to society and decision makers to propose novel restoration and sustainability strategies, under the new paradigm of Gravitational Groundwater Flow Systems.

2024

10.22201/cgeo.20072902e.2024.1.1772

Mankin, Justin S.; Lehner, Flavio; Coats, Sloan; McKinnon, Karen A.

The Value of Initial Condition Large Ensembles to Robust Adaptation Decision-Making

EARTHS FUTURE

The origins of uncertainty in climate projections have major consequences for the scientific and policy decisions made in response to climate change. Internal climate variability, for example, is an inherent uncertainty in the climate system that is undersampled by the multimodel ensembles used in most climate impacts research. Because of this, decision makers are left with the question of whether the range of climate projections across models is due to structural model choices, thus requiring more scientific investment to constrain, or instead is a set of equally plausible outcomes consistent with the same warming world. Similarly, many questions faced by scientists require a clear separation of model uncertainty and that arising from internal variability. With this as motivation and the renewed attention to large ensembles given planning for Phase 7 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP7), we illustrate the scientific and policy value of the attribution and quantification of uncertainty from initial condition large ensembles, particularly when analyzed in conjunction with multimodel ensembles. We focus on how large ensembles can support regional-scale robust adaptation decision-making in ways multimodel ensembles alone cannot. We also acknowledge several recently identified problems associated with large ensembles, namely, that they are (1) resource intensive, (2) redundant, and (3) biased. Despite these challenges, we show, using examples from hydroclimate, how large ensembles provide unique information for the scientific and policy communities and can be analyzed appropriately for regional-scale climate impacts research to help inform risk management in a warming world. Plain Language Summary Estimating uncertainties in projections of climate change poses challenges but is crucial to focusing scientific and policy efforts. Initial condition large ensembles (the same model run many times with the same set of assumptions) has revealed that irreducible uncertainty arising from natural variations in the climate system-called internal variability-can be larger and more persistent than expected when compared to the set of models typically used in climate impacts assessments. Because of this, some argue that the large magnitude of internal variability presents a challenge to effective adaptations in response to climate change. Here we show using examples from water management that characterizing internal variability, even if it is large and irreducible, is the means to more effective decision-making, pointing to the importance of initial condition large ensembles in this effort. We also discuss the criticisms of large ensembles: that they are costly, redundant, and biased. We show that despite these challenges, large ensembles provide unique information that is consistent with the insights from decision science about how to position effective decisions under conditions of deep uncertainty.

2020

10.1029/2020EF001610

Williams, Jack E.; Neville, Helen M.; Haak, Amy L.; Colyer, Warren T.; Wenger, Seth J.; Bradshaw, Stan

Climate Change Adaptation and Restoration of Western Trout Streams: Opportunities and Strategies

FISHERIES

Climate change is contributing to the severity and rate of stream degradation by changing the timing of peak flows, altering flow regimes, creating more frequent and intense disturbances, and increasing stream temperatures. Herein we describe three case studies of trout stream adaptation that address existing and climate-driven causes of degradation through habitat restoration. The case studies vary in geography and complexity, but all include restoration efforts intended to address multiple causes of stream degradation and improve the resilience of these streams to floods, droughts, and wildfires. Four elements of successful climate adaptation projects emerge: (1) habitat assessments that help drive project location and design, (2) projects that directly address climate change impacts and increase habitat resilience, (3) projects that combine to achieve watershed-scale impacts, and (4) projects that include sufficient monitoring to determine their effectiveness. We describe solutions to common challenges in conducting climate change adaptation, including how to balance scientific assessments with opportunities when choosing projects, how smaller projects can be aggregated to achieve watershed-scale benefits, and how citizen science efforts can augment monitoring programs.

2015

10.1080/03632415.2015.1049692

Stupar, Aleksandra; Mihajlov, Vladimir

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION IN SERBIA: THE ROLE OF INFORMATION NETWORKS

METU JOURNAL OF THE FACULTY OF ARCHITECTURE

The importance of problems caused by global warming and increased GHG emissions have been recognised by the international community which responded to this challenge through a growing number of studies, agreements and policies dealing with climate change prevention, mitigation and adaptation. The shift to green economy is confirmed as the highest development aim, while establishing a balanced relationship between environmental policies, economic efficiency, technological upgrading and behavioural transition is one of main global assignments of our epoch. The importance of knowledge and innovations is also emphasised, while their availability, diffusion and exchange represent a key-reinforcement of green transition, especially in societies which are facing severe economic, social and environmental problems caused by sensitive local circumstances. The case of Serbia, which is the focus of this article, presents one of possible paths towards climate change adaptation, conditioned by more than two turbulent decades of the recent history of the country. Since democratic changes in 2000, environmental issues have become visible on institutional (governmental) level - through introduction of new environmental laws, research funding, preparation and implementation of specific documents or strategies, and on non-institutional (non-governmental) level - as different environmentally focused initiatives, usually supported by international, regional or local funds. However, on both levels information networks represent an inevitable structural ingredient, which enables a sustainable and locally adjusted approach to climate adaptation. Following global trends, information networks in Serbia are mainly used in the domain of public communication of climate changes, covering three major thematic areas of climate adaptability - human behaviour, ecological awareness and general efficiency. Considering all these specificities, the article provides a review of detected practices related to the use of information networks in climate change adaptation on both global and local level, stressing the possible benefits and limitations in the context of Serbia. The first part of the article introduces a global background of the problem of climate adaptation, summarising major environmental trends, research problems and policy responses, and emphasising the relation between climate change and urban(ised) environment. The second part is dedicated to the case of Serbia, focusing on three aspects - general condition of the environment, the legal framework and the perception/recognition of urban context and its environmental effects in recent development documents. The third part is focused on the relation between information networks, built environment/cities and climate changes, providing an overview of global trends and Serbian practice, while possible improvements of detected local weaknesses are given in the concluding part.

2016

10.4305/METU.JFA.2016.1.3

Owoeye, Rufus Sunday

COMPARING CLIMATE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES ON TECHNICAL EFFICIENCY OF CASSAVA PRODUCTION IN SOUTHWEST, NIGERIA

AGRICULTURAL AND RESOURCE ECONOMICS-INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC E-JOURNAL

Purpose. The purpose of the article - to assess the technical efficiency of climate adaptation practices on cassava production in two different agro-ecological zones within the study area to know where the climate adaptation practices are more productive. To achieve the main objective of the study, the specific objectives were stated as follows: (a) describe relevant socio-economic characteristics of cassava farmers in southwestern region of Nigeria; (b) assess the influence of the used climate change adaptation strategies on technical efficiency of cassava production in both agro-ecological zones. Methodology / approach. The study was carried out in Ekiti, Osun and Oyo State in the southwestern region of Nigeria, where two different agro-ecological zones (AEZ) (rain forest and guinea savannah) were chosen for the study. The study used multi-stage sampling procedures, with well-structured questionnaire, to select 150 cassava producers from each AEZ, making a total of 300 cassava producers for the study. Data analysis was done using descriptive statistics and stochastic frontier production function. Results. From the study, it was revealed that cassava farmers in the study area were relatively young, fairly educated, mostly married, well experienced, adequately aware of climate change, but operated on a small scale. The result on the influence of climate adaptation strategies on technical efficiency of cassava production in both rain forest and savannah AEZs within the study area revealed that technical inefficiency existed in cassava production as confirmed by the gamma values of 0.687 and 0.639 in rain forest and savannah respectively Originality / scientific novelty. The study has really revealed diverse climate adaptation options available to cassava farmers in order to sustain its production as a means of employment to the unemployed, food consumption and contribution to the national gross domestic product. Studies comparing climate adaptation practices on the technical efficiency of cassava production in different agro-ecological zones in southwestern part of Nigeria are relatively scarce considering the mixture of socio-economic and climate variables to assess technical efficiency of cassava production. Practical value / implications. The study has succeeded in identifying key factors that will enables policy makers to formulate a sustained policy framework that would encourage the use of multiple climate adaptation practices by the cassava farmers. To ensure sustainability of cassava production, it is therefore recommended that farmers should use different adaptation strategies to climate change e.g crop diversification, multiple planting dates, land fragmentation, use of improved varieties and off farm income activities that would bring increase in their scale of operation as most of the cassava farmers in the study areas cultivated less than 2 hectares of land for cassava production.

2020

Ekstrom, Julia A.; Bedsworth, Louise

Adapting air quality management for a changing climate: Survey of local districts in California

JOURNAL OF THE AIR & WASTE MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATION

Air quality can be affected by weather and thus is sensitive to a changing climate. Wildfire (influenced by weather), consecutive high temperature summer days, and other extreme events are projected to become more severe and frequent with climate change. These may create challenging conditions for managing air quality despite policy targets to reduce precursor and pollutant emissions. Although extreme events are becoming more intense and interest in climate adaptation is increasing among public health practitioners, little attention in scholarly literature and policy covers climate adaptation for air quality governance. Understanding the management and managers' perspectives at the local level provides insight about the needs for climate adaptation, including their adaptation status, perspectives, responsibilities, and roles. This study explores local manager perspectives and experiences of managing air quality within a changing climate as one puzzle piece to understand the gap in climate adaptation within the air quality sector. A broader goal is to contribute to the discussion of developing a multi-jurisdictional vision for reducing the impacts of air quality in a changing climate. In 2016 local air quality district managers in California were invited to participate in an online survey of 39 questions focused on extreme event impacts on air quality. The questionnaire focused on present air quality threats and extreme event challenges, adaptation status and strategies, adaptive capacities, perceived barriers to adaptation, and jurisdictional responsibilities and roles. Over 85 percent of the 35 local air districts in California participated in the survey, which represents 80 percent of the state's population. High awareness and knowledge of climate change among local managers indicates they are ready to adopt and take action on policies that would support climate adaptation, but barriers reported suggests they may need policies and adequate funding to take action and make necessary changes.Implications: Downscaled global climate models project an increasing severity and frequency of extreme events. In the southwestern United States, these include wildfire, heat events, and dry periods, among others, all of which can place an extra burden on air quality managers and emitters to achieve air quality standards even as they reduce emissions. Despite climate change presenting increasing challenges to meet air quality standards, in the southwestern United States, policy and action to mitigate these impacts have been surprisingly absent. California presents a valuable case study on the topic because of its historic leadership in air quality management for the United States and also because of its initiatives in combating climate change. Yet still we found that adaptation has not been incorporated into air quality management thus far, but local managers seem sufficiently knowledgeable and willing.

2018

10.1080/10962247.2018.1459325

Nafi, Eeusha; Webber, Heidi; Danso, Isaac; Naab, Jesse B.; Frei, Michael; Gaiser, Thomas

Can reduced tillage buffer the future climate warming effects on maize yield in different soil types of West Africa?

SOIL & TILLAGE RESEARCH

The sustainable intensification of crop production in West Africa is constrained by soil degradation exacerbated by climatic factors such as excessive rainfall and high temperature. Adoption of climate-smart soil and crop management practices could buffer future extreme weather effects on maize yield. To test this hypothesis, the overarching aim of our study was to (i) calibrate and evaluation the DSSAT model for maize and parameterize the DSSAT tillage module for different tillage practices (contour ridge tillage and reduced tillage), and (ii) simulate the effects of different management options (tillage and crop residue incorporation) to buffer future extreme climate events on maize yield in four soil types (Lixisols and Plinthosols) located in two landscape positions (upslope and footslopes) of Benin and Burkina-Faso in West Africa, using two climate scenarios (baseline and 2 degrees C above pre-industrial period). Scenario analysis was performed using factorial combination of two tillage operations (contour ridge and reduced tillage), one crop residue treatment (with crop residue), and two N fertilizer rates (recommended N rate: 60 kg ha(-1) and double recommended N rate: 120 kg ha-1) using HAPPI dataset. Model performance (calibration, evaluation and tillage model parameterization) was good as indicated by the lower normalized root mean square error (nRMSE, 12 %-18 %) and mean root absolute error (MRAE, 10 %-16 %), and higher D-index (0.78-0.93) depending on tillage practices and soil types. Long term future climate simulations and cumulative probability distribution confirmed that with both fertilization cases (recommended and double recommended), contour ridge tillage along with crop residue application could enhance maize yield (4 %-7 %) at upslope field sites under a future 2 degrees C warming scenario, where soil erosion and loss of water and nutrients through runoff is a serious risk. Simultaneously, reduced tillage with crop residue application under both fertilization cases could be a valuable alternative to farmer's practice in fields with deep soils at footslope position (St1 and St3), as it resulted in a higher increase of maize yield (14.5 %) under future 2 degrees C warming scenario compared to the baseline and could be preferred by risk-averse farmers. Maize production on gravelly soils with low water retention capacity (St1, 63-66 mm) may suffer (-11 %) from future 2 degrees C warming regardless of the tillage practice. However, despite the significant site-specific tillage effects, intensified N fertilizer application could reduce maize yield losses on St2, St3, and St4, irrespective of tillage practices by improving maize N uptake under elevated CO2 during future warming period. Hence, the application of site-specific tillage operations and crop residue application has the potential to buffer future warming effects on maize yield as confirmed by DSSAT simulations.

2021

10.1016/j.still.2020.104767

Bellocchi, Gianni; Rivington, Mike; Matthews, Keith; Acutis, Marco

Deliberative processes for comprehensive evaluation of agroecological models. A review

AGRONOMY FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

The use of biophysical models in agroecology has increased in the last few decades for two main reasons: the need to formalize empirical knowledge and the need to disseminate model-based decision support for decision makers (such as farmers, advisors, and policy makers). The first has encouraged the development and use of mathematical models to enhance the efficiency of field research through extrapolation beyond the limits of site, season, and management. The second reflects the increasing need (by scientists, managers, and the public) for simulation experimentation to explore options and consequences, for example, future resource use efficiency (i.e., management in sustainable intensification), impacts of and adaptation to climate change, understanding market and policy responses to shocks initiated at a biophysical level under increasing demand, and limited supply capacity. Production concerns thus dominate most model applications, but there is a notable growing emphasis on environmental, economic, and policy dimensions. Identifying effective methods of assessing model quality and performance has become a challenging but vital imperative, considering the variety of factors influencing model outputs. Understanding the requirements of stakeholders, in respect of model use, logically implies the need for their inclusion in model evaluation methods. We reviewed the use of metrics of model evaluation, with a particular emphasis on the involvement of stakeholders to expand horizons beyond conventional structured, numeric analyses. Two major topics are discussed: (1) the importance of deliberative processes for model evaluation, and (2) the role computer-aided techniques may play to integrate deliberative processes into the evaluation of agroecological models. We point out that (i) the evaluation of agroecological models can be improved through stakeholder follow-up, which is a key for the acceptability of model realizations in practice, (ii) model credibility depends not only on the outcomes of well-structured, numerically based evaluation, but also on less tangible factors that may need to be addressed using complementary deliberative processes, (iii) comprehensive evaluation of simulation models can be achieved by integrating the expectations of stakeholders via a weighting system of preferences and perception, (iv) questionnaire-based surveys can help understand the challenges posed by the deliberative process, and (v) a benefit can be obtained if model evaluation is conceived in a decisional perspective and evaluation techniques are developed at the same pace with which the models themselves are created and improved. Scientific knowledge hubs are also recognized as critical pillars to advance good modeling practice in relation to model evaluation (including access to dedicated software tools), an activity which is frequently neglected in the context of time-limited framework programs.

2015

10.1007/s13593-014-0271-0

Yan, Qina; Le, Phong V. V.; Woo, Dong K.; Hou, Tingyu; Filley, Timothy; Kumar, Praveen

Three-Dimensional Modeling of the Coevolution of Landscape and Soil Organic Carbon

WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is going through rapid reorganization due to anthropogenic influences. Understanding how biogeochemical transformation and erosion-induced SOC redistribution influence SOC profiles and stocks is critical to our food security and adaptation to climate change. The important roles of erosion and deposition on SOC dynamics have drawn increasing attention in the past decades, but quantifying such dynamics is still challenging. Here we develop a process-based quasi 3-D model that couples surface runoff, soil moisture dynamics, biogeochemical transformation, and landscape evolution. We apply this model to a subcatchment in Iowa to understand how natural forcing and farming practices affect the SOC dynamics in the critical zone. The net soil thickness and SOC stock change rates are -0.336 (mm/yr) and -1.9 (gC/m(2)/year), respectively. Our model shows that in a fast transport landscape, SOC transport is the dominant control on SOC dynamics compared to biogeochemical transformation. The SOC profiles have noses below the surface at depositional sites, which are consistent with cores sampled at the same site. Generally, erosional sites are local net atmospheric carbon sinks and vice versa for depositional sites, but exceptions exist as seen in the simulation results. Furthermore, the mechanical soil mixing arising from tillage enhances SOC stock at erosional sites and reduces it at depositional ones. This study not only helps us understand the evolution of SOC stock and profiles in a watershed but can also serve as an instrument to develop practical means for protecting carbon loss due to human activities. Plain Language Summary Understanding how soil organic carbon (SOC) content changes in space and time are critical for our food security and adaptation to climate change. It changes through the belowground transformationdecomposition of litter and release of CO2, and surficial transportlateral physical redistribution. The balance between the two interactions has been strongly shifted by human activities. Quantifying such interactions has remained challenging. Here we developed a 3-D model, which simulates the movement and burial of SOC and compare the impacts of natural and human activities in the critical zone. We apply this model to a watershed in Iowa. Our results show that the net soil thickness and SOC stock change rates are both decreasing. The fast burial of legacy carbon by modern carbon results in a nose profile at depositional sites, which is consistent with soil cores sampled in the watershed. The lateral transport rate can be significantly larger than the transformation rate, but this balance is modified by the mechanical mixing from tillage. Generally, erosional sites are net sinks for atmospheric carbon and depositional sites are net sources. The model can serve as an important tool for protecting soil carbon change caused by both human and natural events.

2019

10.1029/2018WR023634

Vedeld, Trond; Hofstad, Hege; Mathur, Mihir; Buker, Patrick; Stordal, Frode

Reaching out? Governing weather and climate services (WCS) for farmers

ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY

High-quality weather and climate services (WCS) can be critical for communicating knowledge about current and future weather and climate risks for adaptation and disaster risk management in the agricultural sector. This paper investigates the structure and performance of weather and climate services for farmers from a governance perspective. Empirically the paper compares the institutional design and operations of agro-meteorological services in Maharashtra/India and Norway through a 'most different case study' approach. The two cases were selected to represent great diversity in location, scale and institutional design. A governance approach based on semi-direct interviews and policy and institutional analysis was combined with local survey data of farmers' perceptions and use of the services. Despite the fact that the context for the two agromet advisory services was very different from a climate-weather, eco-agriculture and socio-institutional angle, the analysis reveals great similarities in the services structures and critical governance challenges. In both countries the agromet services communicated knowledge that was largely perceived not to be well tailored to farmers' needs for decisions in specific crops- and farm operations, spatially too coarse to address local issues, and, often unreliable or inaccurate in terms of the quality of data. Farmers did, however, respond positively to specific and locally relevant information on e.g., warnings about high rainfall and spread of pests. Observing such similarities across very diverse contexts enhances the generalization potential, precisely because they evolved under very different circumstances. Similar observations find support in the wider WCS literature. Based on the empirical findings, we propose a more deliberate approach to institutional design of WCS in order to enhance governance performance and co-creation of the services at local, district and national scales. It is suggested that greater participation of farmers and agricultural extension agents in the co-creation of these services is a necessary means of improving the services, supported by the WCS literature. However, we insist that greater participation is only likely to materialize if the deficiencies in institutional design and knowledge quality and relevance are addressed to greater extent than done today. The comparison between the two services shows that Norway can learn from India that a more ambitious scope and multiple forms of communication, including the use of social media/WhatsApp groups, can facilitate greater awareness and interest among farmers in multi-purpose agromet services for multi-way communication. India can learn from Norway that a more integrated and decentralized institutional design can strengthen the network attributes of the services, foster co-creation, and improve participation of both poor and large-scale farmers and extension agents.

2020

10.1016/j.envsci.2019.11.010

Anandhi, Aavudai; Bendey, Chance

Predicted 21st century climate variability in southeastern US using downscaled CMIP5 and meta-analysis

CATENA

Trends and variability of the climate in the southeastern United States, including Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee was studied for an array of future scenarios in the 21st century. The region is a biodiversity hotspot affected by more billion-dollar disasters than any other region in the country. Assessing the impacts of climate change in southeastern United States is important and often requires knowledge of plausible future climate change (e.g. scenarios of temperature and precipitation change). Although several methods are available in literature to develop plausible scenarios of the changes, there exists a usability gap [gap between what scientists understand as useful information and what users recognize as usable]. A novel conceptual framework that represents the plausible future climate change scenarios in southeastern United States was developed using information from meta-analysis and outputs from similar to 19 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) Global Climate Models (GCMs) [data analysis] in the form of scenario funnels (represent the plausible trajectories of changes in climate). The systematic literature review provided 33 values of precipitation changes from 15 studies and 35 for temperature changes from 14 studies. In general, the meta-analysis revealed, the precipitation changes observed ranged from -30 to + 35% and temperature changes between - 2 degrees C to 6 degrees C by 2099. Fiftieth percentile of the GCMs predicts no precipitation change and an increase of 2.5 degrees C temperature in the region by 2099. Among the GCMs, 5th and 95th percentile of precipitation changes range between - 40% to 110% and temperature changes between - 2 degrees C to 6 degrees C by 2099. Finally, the usability of scenario information to stakeholders in various southeastern United States ecosystems and guidelines for developing causal chains and feedback loops with three levels of complexity were provided. They include utilizing the information from impact assessment studies, stakeholder's expertise and requirement as well as understanding the potential impacts in ecosystems (e.g. agroecosystems, coastal, wetland) by relating the structural components of an ecosystem, their interactions with each other, within and across ecosystems for improved management and sustainable use of their resources. These would improve understanding of ecosystem functioning for better management and sustainable use of resources. Although the methodology was demonstrated for southeastern United States, it could also be applicable to other regions of the world. However, the scenario funnels, potential impacts on ecosystems and causal chain/loops are subjective to the study region, availability of literature, the changes observed in the literature and data analyzed, the characteristics of the study region, the stakeholder and their requirement.

2018

10.1016/j.catena.2018.06.005

Fonseca, Andre; Fraga, Helder; Santos, Joao A.

Exposure of Portuguese viticulture to weather extremes under climate change

CLIMATE SERVICES

Grape berry quality and yield are notably influenced by complex multi-scale interactions between grapevines and local environmental conditions. In established wine-growing regions, bestowing to local climatic conditions, yield and quality are mostly optimized, planting the best wine variety and applying specific cultural practices. Thus, the sustainability of the winemaking sector worldwide is being challenged by ongoing climate change, requiring adaptation at different levels. Climate change will inflict progressively dry and warm conditions on Portuguese vineyards, with changes in frequency and intensity of weather extremes. However, the future pro-jections of these extreme events and their potential impacts on viticulture are less understood. For this purpose, in this study, seventeen climate extreme indices were calculated for the Portuguese wine denomination of origin regions/subregions, in the historical period (1981-2010) and future periods (2041-2070 and 2071-2100), under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, and based on a five-member ensemble of Regional Climate Model-Global Climate Model chain simulations. Furthermore, a principal component analysis was undertaken for both precipitation and temperature extreme indices independently. We found an increase in temperature ex-tremes in all wine regions in Portugal, particularly in the westernmost regions. Regarding the precipitation extremes, they reveal a lessening effect for future periods, accompanied by a generalized decrease of precipi-tation, but will remain an important threat in the northeastern regions. Conversely, the dry extremes, potenti-ating severe droughts, will be significantly strengthened. Lastly, it was possible to identify the most exposed and vulnerable wine regions to weather extremes in future climates. This information is critical for supporting decision-making in the sector, namely for long-term planning, climate change adaptation and risk reduction. Practical Implications: In the winemaking sector, resorting to climate information is an effective way of mitigating climate-related risks to attain specific terroirs. To effectively deliver this information to winemakers, climatic vulnerability needs to be identified regionally, in order to promote suitable and locally adjusted measures and policies. In this study, Wine Protected Denomination of Origin (PDO) in Portugal are the key target of the climate (temperature and precipitation) extreme variability between present and future periods. The results provided and synthesized in this study should be able to inform winemakers by identifying potential areas of risk con-cerning the ongoing climate change and acting accordingly based on the potential occurrence of these climate extremes in each PDO area. Furthermore, some short-term and long-term strategies are presented to mitigate the general increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation.

2023

10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100357

Rohat, Guillaume; Flacke, Johannes; Dosio, Alessandro; Dao, Hy; van Maarseveen, Martin

Projections of Human Exposure to Dangerous Heat in African Cities Under Multiple Socioeconomic and Climate Scenarios

EARTHS FUTURE

Human exposure to dangerous heat, driven by climatic and demographic changes, is increasing worldwide. Being located in hot regions and showing high rates of urban population growth, African cities appear particularly likely to face significantly increased exposure to dangerous heat in the coming decades. We combined projections of urban population under five socioeconomic scenarios-shared socioeconomic pathways-with projections of apparent temperature under three representative concentration pathways in order to explore future exposure to dangerous heat across 173 large African cities. Employing multiple shared socioeconomic pathway and representative concentration pathway combinations, we demonstrated that the aggregate exposure in African cities will increase by a multiple of 20-52, reaching 86-217 billion person-days per year by the 2090s, depending on the scenario. The most exposed cities are located in Western and Central Africa, although several Eastern African cities showed an increase of more than 2,000 times the current level by the 2090s, due to the emergence of dangerous heat conditions combined with steady urban population growth. In most cases, we found future exposure to be predominantly driven by changes in population alone or by concurrent changes in climate and population, with the influence of changes in climate alone being minimal. We also demonstrated that shifting from a high to a low urban population growth pathway leads to a slightly greater reduction in aggregate exposure than shifting from a high to a low emissions pathway (51% vs. 48%). This emphasizes the critical role that socioeconomic development plays in shaping heat-related health challenges in African cities. Plain Language Summary Very hot and humid weather often leads to numerous health issues, ranging from heat cramps to death. Due to changing climatic conditions and to demographic growth, the number of people exposed to very hot and humid days is increasing worldwide. This is particularly the case across the African continent, where population growth is rapidly increasing and very hot and humid days are becoming more and more frequent, particularly in tropical areas. In this study, we consider more than 150 large African cities across 43 countries and project the number of people that will be exposed to dangerous heat conditions. Our projections suggest that this number will be 20 to 52 times higher at the end of the 21st century than currently. Large cities in Western and Central Africa appear to be particularly at risk, whereas cities in Southern Africa will remain relatively unscathed. We also show that a restrained urban demographic growth could lead to a 50% reduction in the number of people exposed to dangerous heat conditions. Population and urbanization policies should be part of the wide range of urban climate adaptation options in order to minimize future exposure to extreme heat.

2019

10.1029/2018EF001020

Sohn, Soo-Jin; Tam, Chi-Yung

Long-lead station-scale prediction of hydrological droughts in South Korea based on bivariate pattern-based downscaling

CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Capturing climatic variations in boreal winter to spring (December-May) is essential for properly predicting droughts in South Korea. This study investigates the variability and predictability of the South Korean climate during this extended season, based on observations from 60 station locations and multi-model ensemble (MME) hindcast experiments (1983/1984-2005/2006) archived at the APEC Climate Center (APCC). Multivariate empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis results based on observations show that the first two leading modes of winter-to-spring precipitation and temperature variability, which together account for similar to 80 % of the total variance, are characterized by regional-scale anomalies covering the whole South Korean territory. These modes were also closely related to some of the recurrent large-scale circulation changes in the northern hemisphere during the same season. Consistent with the above, examination of the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) indicates that drought conditions in South Korea tend to be accompanied by regional-to-continental-scale circulation anomalies over East Asia to the western north Pacific. Motivated by the aforementioned findings on the spatial-temporal coherence among station-scale precipitation and temperature anomalies, a new bivariate and pattern-based downscaling method was developed. The novelty of this method is that precipitation and temperature data were first filtered using multivariate EOFs to enhance their spatial-temporal coherence, before being linked to large-scale circulation variables using canonical correlation analysis (CCA). To test its applicability and to investigate its related potential predictability, a perfect empirical model was first constructed with observed datasets as predictors. Next, a model output statistics (MOS)-type hybrid dynamical-statistical model was developed, using products from nine one-tier climate models as inputs. It was found that, with model sea-level pressure (SLP) and 500 hPa geopotential height (Z500) as predictors, statistically downscaled MME (DMME) precipitation and temperature predictions were substantially improved compared to those based on raw MME outputs. Limitations and possible causes of error of such a dynamical-statistical model, in the current framework of dynamical seasonal climate predictions, were also discussed. Finally, the method was used to construct a dynamical-statistical system for 6 month-lead drought predictions for 60 stations in South Korea. DMME was found to give reasonably skillful long-lead forecasts of SPEI for winter to spring. Moreover, DMME-based products clearly outperform the raw MME predictions, especially during extreme wet years. Our results could lead to more reliable climatic extreme predictions for policymakers and stakeholders in the water management sector, and for better mitigation and climate adaptations.

2016

10.1007/s00382-015-2770-3

Buchholz, Wolfgang; Rubbelke, Dirk

Overstraining international climate finance: when conflicts of objectives threaten its success

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGIES AND MANAGEMENT

Purpose Climate finance is regularly not only seen as a tool to efficiently combat global warming but also to solve development problems in the recipient countries and to support the attainment of sustainable development goals. Thereby, conflicts between distributive and allocative objectives arise, which threaten the overall performance of such transfer schemes. Given the severity of the climate change problem, this study aims to raise concerns about whether the world can afford climate transfer schemes that do not focus on prevention of (and adaptation to) climate change but might be considered as a vehicle of rent-seeking by many agents. Design/methodology/approach Future designs of international transfer schemes within the framework of the Paris Agreement are to be based on experience gained from existing mechanisms. Therefore, the authors examine different existing schemes using a graphical technique first proposed by David Pearce and describe the conflicts between allocative and distributional goals that arise. Findings In line with the famous Tinbergen rule, the authors argue that other sustainability problems and issues of global fairness should not be primarily addressed by climate finance but should be mainly tackled by other means. Research limitations/implications As there is still ongoing, intense discussion about how the international transfer schemes addressed in Article 6 of the Paris Agreement should be designed, the research will help to sort some of the key arguments. Practical implications There are prominent international documents (like the Paris Agreement and the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development) seeking to address different goals simultaneously. While synergies between policies is desirable, there are major challenges for policy coordination. Addressing several different goals using fewer policy instruments, for example, will not succeed as the Tinbergen Rule points out. Social implications The integration of co-benefits in the analysis allows for taking into account the social effects of climate policy. As the authors argue, climate finance approaches could become overstrained if policymakers would consider them as tools to also solve local sustainability problems. Originality/value In this paper, the authors will not only examine what can be learnt from the clean development mechanism (CDM) for future schemes under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement but also observe the experiences gained from a non-CDM scheme. So the authors pay attention to the Trust Fund of the Global Environment Facility (GEF) which was established with global benefit orientation, i.e. - unlike the CDM - it was not regarded as an additional goal to support local sustainable development. Yet, despite its disregard of local co-benefits, the authors think that it is of particular importance to include the GEF in the analysis, as some important lessons can be learnt from it.

2021

10.1108/IJCCSM-06-2021-0071

Marini, Giovanni; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Marques Toledo, Cecilia A.; Teixeira, Mauro; Rosa, Roberto; Merler, Stefano

Effectiveness of Ultra-Low Volume insecticide spraying to prevent dengue in a non-endemic metropolitan area of Brazil

PLOS COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY

Management of vector population is a commonly used method for mitigating transmission of mosquito-borne infections, but quantitative information on its practical public health impact is scarce. We study the effectiveness of Ultra-Low Volume (ULV) insecticide spraying in public spaces for preventing secondary dengue virus (DENV) cases in Porto Alegre, a non-endemic metropolitan area in Brazil. We developed a stochastic transmission model based on detailed entomological, epidemiological and population data, accounting for the geographical distribution of mosquitoes and humans in the study area and spatial transmission dynamics. The model was calibrated against the distribution of DENV cluster sizes previously estimated from the same geographical setting. We estimated a ULV-induced mortality of 40% for mosquitoes and found that the implemented control protocol avoided about 24% of symptomatic cases occurred in the area throughout the 2015-2016 epidemic season. Increasing the radius of treatment or the mortality of mosquitoes by treating gardens and/or indoor premises would greatly improve the result of control, but trade-offs with respect to increased efforts need to be carefully analyzed. We found a moderate effectiveness for ULV-spraying in public areas, mainly due to the limited ability of this strategy in effectively controlling the vector population. These results can be used to support the design of control strategies in low-incidence, non-endemic settings. Author summary Dengue is a mosquito-borne infection that causes millions of symptomatic infections and thousands of deaths per year. This pathogen is expanding its geographic range to areas that were previously free from autochthonous transmission thanks to the intensification of international travels, urbanization and to climatic adaptation of mosquitoes and viruses. Usually interventions against dengue transmission consist in insecticide spraying aimed at killing adult mosquitoes, but the impact of this practice has been rarely evaluated in real-life settings. In this work, we estimate the proportion of dengue cases avoided by Ultra-Low-Volume insecticide spraying in public areas in Porto Alegre (Brazil). This city is characterized by a subtropical climate, negligible pre-existing immunity and low dengue incidence. The low incidence makes this region unsuitable for deployment of the currently licensed vaccine, which is only recommended by the WHO for high-transmission areas. We found that insecticide spraying avoided approximately one fourth of all symptomatic cases. The performance of the intervention was negatively affected by the low treatment-induced mosquito mortality, as we estimated that only 40% of Ae. aegypti are killed by the insecticide. Control outcomes could be improved by increasing the targeted area and including private premises, but trade-offs against increased efforts need to be carefully analyzed.

2019

10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006831

Mumtaz, Muhammad

Role of civil society organizations for promoting green and blue infrastructure to adapting climate change: Evidence from Islamabad city, Pakistan

JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION

This study contributes to understand the role of the civil society organizations (CSOs) for promoting the green and blue infrastructure (GBI) by studying the case of Islamabad city. Pakistan is facing severe crises of changing climate and it is ranked one of the most vulnerable countries due to climate change. Adaptation to climate change is the main strategy of Pakistan to deal with climatic impacts. Implementing the GBI plays a key role in urban areas for promoting adaptive governance towards climate change. Many efforts have been initiated to manage the issue of climate change by the national, provincial, and local governments in Pakistan. The latest and notable strategy by Pakistani government was devised in the form of the Clean Green Pakistan Strategy (CGPS) to promote the GBI as adaptation strategy to address climate change. However, there are multiple challenges and hurdles for effective implementation of the CGPS. On the heels of Paris Agreement 2015, the CSOs have growing role to overcome such challenges and to prepare the local communities in collaboration with local institutions especially in cities for advancing the GBI and tackling climate change effectively. This study is conducted to understand and uncover the role of the CSOs for promoting the GBI as adaptive strategy in dealing with climate change in Islamabad city of Pakistan. The study focuses to investigate and dig out the prominent initiatives of the CSOs towards the GBI in Pakistani governance system. It also identifies the hurdles and challenges for the CSOs in relation to promote the GBI in Pakistan. A case study approach as research methodology is employed where semistructured interviews were conducted with relevant actors in Islamabad city. The study finds that the CSOs are actively involved in promotion of the GBI in collaboration with Islamabad administration through plantation drive, educating school students on the GBI, arranging training programs for the local community, providing advocacy assistance and helping the city government for establishing policies and action plans for the GBI. The CSOs act as representative of the local community in devising the GBI policies and implementation actions at local scale through consistent engagements with the local administration and the local community in the city. The CSOs have emerged as a mediator in aligning intergovernmental relations for implementing the GBI as the CSOs are closely working with local, provincial, and federal institutions, thus they are key for all tiers of the government. The major challenges faced by the CSOs are identified: weak linkage and cooperation among local and international organizations, limited financial resources, and weak capacity of local organizations. The role of the CSOs appears in an infancy stages but it is emerging with a reasonable pace for effective adaptive governance in relation with the GBI in Pakistan.

2021

10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.127296

Lickley, Megan; Fletcher, Sarah

Bayesian Estimation of Advanced Warning Time of Precipitation Emergence

EARTHS FUTURE

Climate models disagree on the direction of precipitation change over about half of the Earth. Current characterizations of expected change use the ensemble mean, which systematically underestimates the magnitude and overestimates the time of emergence (ToE) of precipitation change in regions of high uncertainty. We develop a new approach to estimate both ToE and the potential to update uncertainty in precipitation over time with new observations. Further, we develop two new metrics that increase the usefulness of ToE for adaptation planning. The time of confidence estimates when projections of precipitation emergence will have high confidence. Second, the advance warning time (AWT) indicates how long policymakers will have to prepare for a new precipitation regime after they know change is likely to occur. Our approach uses individual model projections that show change before averaging across models to calculate ToE. It then applies a Bayesian method to constrain uncertainty from climate model ensembles using a perfect model approach. Results demonstrate the potential for widespread and decades-earlier precipitation emergence, with potential for end-of-century emergence to occur across 99% of the Earth compared to 60% in previous estimates. Our method reduces uncertainty in the direction of change across 8% of the globe. We find positive estimates of AWT across most of the Earth; however, in 34% of regions there is potential for no advanced warning before new precipitation regimes emerge. These estimates can guide adaptation planning, reducing the risk that policymakers are unprepared for precipitation changes that occur earlier than expected. Understanding if and when precipitation will change in response to anthropogenic warming is needed for policymakers to design adaptation plans. However, climate model projections of precipitation are highly uncertain, with models disagreeing on the direction of change across about half of Earth's surface. We develop a methodology for estimating when we expect future precipitation change to be known with a high degree of confidence. We estimate the time of emergence of new precipitation regimes on individual climate models. We also estimate how much advance warning time policymakers will have between learning that precipitation will likely change and the onset of such change. We demonstrate that precipitation change could be more widespread and sooner than previously expected, but that most regions will have advance warning. Together, our findings provide information that policymakers can use to more effectively adapt to climate change before impacts occur. We develop a method to reduce uncertainty in precipitation change by integrating observations If precipitation will change, emergence will be sooner and more widespread than previous estimates In most regions, we expect to have advanced warning time of precipitation emergence

2024

10.1029/2023EF004079

Feleke, Hirut Getachew; Savage, Michael J.; Fantaye, Kindie Tesfaye; Rettie, Fasil Mequanint

The Role of Crop Management Practices and Adaptation Options to Minimize the Impact of Climate Change on Maize (Zea mays L.) Production for Ethiopia

ATMOSPHERE

Climate change impact assessment along with adaptation measures are key for reducing the impact of climate change on crop production. The impact of current and future climate change on maize production was investigated, and the adaptation role of shifting planting dates, different levels of nitrogen fertilizer rates, and choice of maize cultivar as possible climate change adaptation strategies were assessed. The study was conducted in three environmentally contrasting sites in Ethiopia, namely: Ambo, Bako, and Melkassa. Future climate data were obtained from seven general circulation models (GCMs), namely: CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, CSIRO-MK3-6-0, EC-EARTH, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-MR, and MIROC5 for the highest representative concentration pathway (RCP 8.5). GCMs were bias-corrected at site level using a quantile-quantile mapping method. APSIM, AquaCrop, and DSSAT crop models were used to simulate the baseline (1995-2017) and 2030s (2021-2050) maize yields. The result indicated that the average monthly maximum air temperature in the 2030s could increase by 0.3-1.7 degrees C, 0.7-2.2 degrees C, and 0.8-1.8 degrees C in Ambo, Bako, and Melkassa, respectively. For the same sites, the projected increase in average monthly minimum air temperature was 0.6-1.7 degrees C, 0.8-2.3 degrees C, and 0.6-2.7 degrees C in that order. While monthly total precipitation for the Kiremt season (June to September) is projected to increase by up to 55% (365 mm) for Ambo and 75% (241 mm) for Bako respectively, whereas a significant decrease in monthly total precipitation is projected for Melkassa by 2030. Climate change would reduce maize yield by an average of 4% and 16% for Ambo and Melkassa respectively, while it would increase by 2% for Bako in 2030 if current maize cultivars were grown with the same crop management practice as the baseline under the future climate. At higher altitudes, early planting of maize cultivars between 15 May and 1 June would result in improved relative yields in the future climate. Fertilizer levels increment between 23 and 150 kg ha(-1) would result in progressive improvement of yields for all maize cultivars when combined with early planting for Ambo. For a mid-altitude, planting after 15 May has either no or negative effect on maize yield. Early planting combined with a nitrogen fertilizer level of 23-100 kg ha(-1) provided higher relative yields under the future climate. Delayed planting has a negative influence on maize production for Bako under the future climate. For lower altitudes, late planting would have lower relative yields compared to early planting. Higher fertilizer levels (100-150 kg ha(-1)) would reduce yield reductions under the future climate, but this varied among maize cultivars studied. Generally, the future climate is expected to have a negative impact on maize yield and changes in crop management practices can alleviate the impacts on yield.

2023

10.3390/atmos14030497

Scafetta, Nicola

ON THE RELIABILITY OF COMPUTER-BASED CLIMATE MODELS

ITALIAN JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY AND ENVIRONMENT

Since 1850 the global surface temperature of the Earth has warmed by about 0.9 degrees C. The computer climate models adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), such as the General Circulation Models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), projected that the global surface temperature could rise more than 1.5 degrees C by 2030 and more than 4-5 degrees C by 2100 relative to the pre-industrial period (1850-1900) because of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. These computer projections are being used to justify expensive mitigation policies to drastically reduce CO2 emissions due to the use of fossil fuel. However, these models must be validated before their interpretation of climate change could be considered reliable. Herein, I summarize recent scientific research pointing out that these GCMs fail to properly reconstruct the natural variability of the climate throughout the entire Holocene and at multiple time scales such as: (1) the Holocene Climatic Optimum (9000-6000 years ago) with the subsequent cooling from 5000 years ago to now, (2) the large millennial oscillations observed throughout the Holocene that were responsible, for example, for the Medieval Wann Period; (3) several shorter climatic oscillations with periods of about 9.1, 10.4, 20, 60 years; (4) the climate change trend after 2000 to date, which the models greatly overestimate; and many other patterns. These different pieces of evidence imply two main facts: (1) the models' equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) to radiative forcing, such as to an atmospheric CO2 doubling, is overestimated at least by a factor of 2, which implies a more realistic ECS between 1 degrees C and 2 degrees C; (2) there area number of solar and astronomical forcings that are still missing in the models or are poorly understood yet. Consequently, these GCMs are not physically reliable for properly interpreting past and future climatic changes. Alternatively, semi-empirical climatic models should be used. Data analysis found that the climatic natural variability is made of several oscillations from the decadal to the millennial scales (e.g. periods of about 9.1, 10.4, 20, 60, 115, 1000 years) and others. These oscillations are coherent with solar, lunar and astronomical oscillations. A semi-empirical climate model that makes use of these oscillations plus a reduced ECS reconstructs with great accuracy the climate variability observed since 1850 and projects a very moderate warming until 2040 and a warming lower than 2 degrees C from 2000 to 2100 using the same anthropogenic emission scenarios used for the 21st-century climate simulations of the CMIP5 models. This result suggests that climatic adaptation policies, which are far less expensive than the mitigation ones, could be sufficient to address the consequences of climatic changes that could occur during the 21st century.

2019

10.4408/IJEGE.2019-01.O-05

Sannan, M. C.; Nageswararao, M. M.; Mohanty, U. C.

Performance evaluation of CORDEX-South Asia simulations and future projections of northeast monsoon rainfall over south peninsular India

METEOROLOGY AND ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS

The northeast monsoon (October-December; NEM) rainfall is a very important entity to about 250 million people residing in the South Peninsular India (SPI) region as it is their principle rainy season and contributes mostly to their annual rainfall. The aim of the study is to obtain the future projections of NEM rainfall over this region representing three different greenhouse gas emission scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for two future time slices, i.e., near (2020-2049) and far future (2070-2099) estimated from a set of high-resolution regional climate simulations performed under CORDEX-SA experiments. To achieve that, first, an assessment of ten CORDEX-SA regional climate model (RCM) simulations is done for NEM rainfall over SPI for present climate (1976-2005) against India Meteorological Department high resolution (0.25o x 0.25o) gridded rainfall analysis dataset. Then, the change in NEM rainfall over SPI in the near and far future is computed after applying standardized reconstruction technique to adjust the bias present in the models. The results suggest that most of the CORDEX-SA experiments are able to simulate the spatial distribution of NEM seasonal rainfall and its variability over SPI but there is an inability in capturing realistic magnitudes and the errors are more over the east and west coast where most of the rainfall occurs. The experiment with RCA4 driven by EC-EARTH global model and REMO2009 driven by MPI-ESM has a fairly lesser bias than the other models, whereas the bias is more in LMDZ-IITM-RegCM4. The experiments by CCAM models have very similar characteristics in representing the rainfall pattern. The standardized reconstruction bias correction technique was found to significantly improve the performance of the climate models in representing the climatological mean and inter-annual variability of (IAV) of NEM rainfall over SPI, but in case of categorical rainfall years, improvement is seen only in the normal rainfall years. In the future, for RCP 2.6, there is a rise in NEM rainfall in the first half of the twenty-first century, which is projected to decline after that; however, in the other two scenarios, the rainfall is projected to increase. It is also found that there may be lesser excess rainfall years and more deficit rainfall years in the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios in the near future, and no deficit rainfall years are projected in the far future in both these scenarios based on the present climate. It is also noticed that the variability in the NEM rainfall over this region may remarkably increase in all the three future scenarios, which will highly impact various water resources management sectors. Thus, this study is very useful in determining the effects on various sectors due to the variability in NEM rainfall over this region and for adapting to climate change using advanced technologies for a sustainable future.

2020

10.1007/s00703-019-00716-2

Rudinskiene, Ausra; Marcinkeviciene, Ausra; Velicka, Rimantas; Steponaviciene, Vaida

The Effects of Incorporating Caraway into a Multi-Cropping Farming System on the Crops and the Overall Agroecosystem

AGRONOMY-BASEL

The scientific aim of this article is to investigate the potential benefits of implementing a multi-cropping system, specifically focusing on the incorporation of caraway, to improve soil agrochemical and biological properties, prevent soil degradation and erosion, and ultimately enhance soil quality and health to better adapt to climate change. This study aims to provide valuable insights into the comparative analysis of various soil parameters and biological indicators to showcase the promising perspectives and importance of perennial crop production for improving soil quality and agricultural sustainability. These crops are designed to provide multiple benefits simultaneously, including improved yields, enhanced ecosystem services, and reduced environmental effects. However, an integrated assessment of their overall effects on the agroecosystem is crucial to understand their potential benefits and trade-offs. The field experiment was conducted over three consecutive vegetative seasons (2017 to 2021) at the Experimental Station of Vytautas Magnus University Agriculture Academy (VMU AA) in Kaunas district, Lithuania. The experimental site is located at 54 degrees 53 ' 7.5 '' N latitude and 23 degrees 50 ' 18.11 '' E longitude. The treatments within a replicate were multi-cropping systems of sole crops (spring barley (1), spring wheat (2), pea (3), caraway (4)), binary crops (spring barley-caraway (5), spring wheat-caraway (6), pea-caraway (7)), and trinary crops (spring barley-caraway-white clover (8), spring wheat-caraway-white clover (9), pea-caraway-white clover (10)) crops. However, an integrated assessment of their impact on the agroecosystem is needed to understand their potential benefits and processes. To determine the complex interactions between indicators, the interrelationships between indicators, and the strength of impacts, this study applied an integrated assessment approach using the comprehensive assessment index (CEI). The CEI values showed that integrating caraway (Carum carvi L.) into multi-cropping systems can have several positive effects. The effect of the binary spring barley and caraway and the trinary spring barley, caraway, and white clover crops on the agroecosystem is positively higher than that of the other comparative sole, binary, and trinary crops. Caraway, after spring wheat together with white clover, has a higher positive effect on the agroecosystem than caraway without white clover. Specifically, this study addresses key aspects, such as soil health, nutrient cycling, weed management, and overall agricultural sustainability, within the context of multi-cropping practices. By evaluating the effects of these cropping systems on soil agrochemical properties and ecosystem dynamics, the research provides valuable insights into sustainable agricultural practices that promote environmental conservation and long-term soil health.

2024

10.3390/agronomy14030625

Zhu, Huanhuan; Jiang, Zhihong; Li, Laurent; Li, Wei; Jiang, Sheng; Zhou, Panyu; Zhao, Weihao; Li, Tong

Intercomparison of multi-model ensemble-processing strategies within a consistent framework for climate projection in China

SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES

Climate change adaptation and relevant policy-making need reliable projections of future climate. Methods based on multi-model ensemble are generally considered as the most efficient way to achieve the goal. However, their efficiency varies and inter-comparison is a challenging task, as they use a variety of target variables, geographic regions, time periods, or model pools. Here, we construct and use a consistent framework to evaluate the performance of five ensemble-processing methods, i.e., multi-model ensemble mean (MME), rank-based weighting (RANK), reliability ensemble averaging (REA), climate model weighting by independence and performance (ClimWIP), and Bayesian model averaging (BMA). We investigate the annual mean temperature (Tav) and total precipitation (Prcptot) changes (relative to 1995-2014) over China and its seven subregions at 1.5 and 2 & DEG;C warming levels (relative to pre-industrial). All ensemble-processing methods perform better than MME, and achieve generally consistent results in terms of median values. But they show different results in terms of inter-model spread, served as a measure of uncertainty, and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). ClimWIP is the most optimal method with its good performance in simulating current climate and in providing credible future projections. The uncertainty, measured by the range of 10th-90th percentiles, is reduced by about 30% for Tav, and 15% for Prcptot in China, with a certain variation among subregions. Based on ClimWIP, and averaged over whole China under 1.5/2 & DEG;C global warming levels, Tav increases by about 1.1/1.8 & DEG;C (relative to 1995-2014), while Prcptot increases by about 5.4%/11.2%, respectively. Reliability of projections is found dependent on investigated regions and indices. The projection for Tav is credible across all regions, as its SNR is generally larger than 2, while the SNR is lower than 1 for Prcptot over most regions under 1.5 & DEG;C warming. The largest warming is found in northeastern China, with increase of 1.3 (0.6-1.7)/2.0 (1.4-2.6) & DEG;C(ensemble's median and range of the 10th-90th percentiles) under 1.5/2 & DEG;C warming, followed by northern and northwestern China. The smallest but the most robust warming is in southwestern China, with values exceeding 0.9 (0.6-1.1)/1.5 (1.1-1.7) & DEG;C. The most robust projection and largest increase is achieved in northwestern China for Prcptot, with increase of 9.1%(-1.6-24.7%)/17.9% (0.5-36.4%) under 1.5/2 & DEG;C warming. Followed by northern China, where the increase is 6.0%(-2.6-17.8%)/11.8% (2.4-25.1%), respectively. The precipitation projection is of large uncertainty in southwestern China, even with uncertain sign of variation. For the additional half-degree warming, Tav increases more than 0.5 & DEG;C throughout China. Almost all regions witness an increase of Prcptot, with the largest increase in northwestern China.

2023

10.1007/s11430-022-1154-7

McIntosh, Matthew M.; Spiegal, Sheri A.; McIntosh, Stacia Z.; Sanchez, Jose Castano; Estell, Richard E.; Steele, Caitriana M.; Elias, Emile H.; Bailey, Derek W.; Brown, Joel R.; Cibils, Andres F.

Matching beef cattle breeds to the environment for desired outcomes in a changing climate: A systematic review

JOURNAL OF ARID ENVIRONMENTS

Cattle graze approximately 30% of global land, making their interactions with Earth's social and ecological systems of critical importance. Cattle have experienced a long process of evolution and domestication. Certain breeds are more adapted to specific environments, differentially affecting those breeds' impact on the envi-ronment, their interaction with ecosystems experiencing climate change impacts, and their capacity to provide goods and landscape management services. Emerging evidence suggests that, compared to more artificially selected conventional breeds, some less specialized, or 'heritage' beef cattle breeds exhibit unique foraging behaviors that could support desired outcomes such as biodiversity or climate change adaptation. We provide a novel, systematic characterization of breed-based behavioral differences to assist researchers and beef producers in selecting breed-based management strategies for achieving adaptation goals. We conducted a systematic search of studies that compared beef cattle breeds for behavioral trends, and found 54 studies conducted between 1966 and present day, located in 9 of the 14 major terrestrial world biomes, with 60 beef or dual-purpose breeds represented. We created a typology of the studies with respect to decade, continent, breed provenance (Conti-nental, Criollo, Hybrid, B. indicus, Mediterranean, Sanga, British Isles), breed selection intensity (heritage, conventional, hybrid), biome, study intent, and whether breeds met desired outcomes described by the study authors. Most studies (69%) were conducted in arid rangeland settings in developed nations where researchers sought to minimize the environmental impacts of beef production. In comparisons of grazing behavior of heritage versus conventional types (n = 25 studies), and hybrid versus conventional types (n = 18 studies), heritage and hybrid displayed more adapted traits (e.g., better grazing distribution) in 88% and 78% of the studies, respec-tively. No differences were found in grazing behaviors among most studies wherein heritage breeds were compared to other heritage breeds or conventional with conventional (n = 6 and 15 studies, respectively). In the subset of studies coded with the intent of foraging behavior, heritage types traveled faster across a range of pasture sizes, suggesting a lighter environmental footprint and adaptive capacity to heat impacts. Overall, our review suggests that locally derived breeds display grazing behaviors that demonstrate adaptation to their respective native environments and may help producers meet production goals in similar environments. We conclude that breeds with more natural selection tend to exhibit less rigid grazing behaviors, which is a necessary coping strategy in variable climates and locales with heterogeneous forage availability, both of which are increasingly common scenarios caused by climate change.

2023

10.1016/j.jaridenv.2022.104905

Ceola, S.; Mard, J.; Di Baldassarre, G.

Drought and Human Mobility in Africa

EARTHS FUTURE

Human mobility from droughts is multifaceted and depends on environmental, political, social, demographic and economic factors. Although droughts cannot be considered as the single trigger, they significantly influence people's decision to move. Yet, the ways in which droughts influence patterns of human settlements have remained poorly understood. Here we explore the relationships between drought occurrences and changes in the spatial distribution of human settlements across 50 African countries for the period 1992-2013. For each country, we extract annual drought occurrences from two indicators, the international disaster database EM-DAT and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI-12) records, and we evaluate human settlement patterns by considering urban population data and human distance to rivers, as derived from nighttime lights. We then compute human displacements as variations in human distribution between adjacent years, which are then associated with drought (or non-drought) years. Our results show that drought occurrences across Africa are often associated with (other things being equal) human mobility toward rivers or cities. In particular, we found that human settlements tend to get closer to water bodies or urban areas during drought conditions, as compared to non-drought periods, in 70%-81% of African countries. We interpret this tendency as a physical manifestation of drought adaptation, and discuss how this may result into increasing flood risk or overcrowding urban areas. As such, our results shed light on the interplay between human mobility and climate change, bolstering the analysis on the spatiotemporal dynamics of drought risks in a warming world. Prolonged water shortages induced by droughts can have severe consequences on both the environment and society. For instance, the mobility of people can be influenced by drought events. In order to test this assumption, we relate the movement of people to drought occurrences, without considering any additional factor. We focus on Africa, since it is one of the most drought-prone continents and the movement of people is more prominent compared to other areas. We find that people tend to move closer to rivers and to urban centers during droughts, as compared to non-drought periods. This pattern is found for the majority of African countries, which suggests a large-scale signal. The increased movement of people toward rivers during droughts might generate larger human losses if flood events take place in the future. A new methodology integrating satellite data is developed for evaluating drought-induced human displacements in AfricaWe found that 70%-81% of African countries exhibit larger displacements during droughts, as compared to non-drought periodsHuman displacement toward rivers and urban centers is triggered, other things being equal, by drought occurrences

2023

10.1029/2023EF003510

Zhao, Jin; Yang, Xiaoguang; Sun, Shuang

Constraints on maize yield and yield stability in the main cropping regions in China

EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF AGRONOMY

Understanding the distributions of zones of high/low and stable/unstable recorded maize (Zea mays L.) yield, and identifying the constraints on yield and yield stability, is essential for optimized crop distribution and agricultural management to mitigate limitations and improve maize production under climate change. In this study, we collected recorded maize yields and simulated three levels of yield potentials (radiation-temperature yield potential Y-p climatic yield potential Y-pw and soil-climatic yield potential Y-pws) with the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM-Maize) from 1981 to 2010 in the three main cropping regions in China [the North China spring maize region (NCS), the Huanghuaihai summer maize region (HS), and the Southwest China mountain maize region (SCM)]. The distributions of four categories of maize yield and yield stability zones, and limitations by precipitation, soil and technology & management on average yield, yield stability and total production were analyzed. The county-level average recorded yields during the period under study were 4624.26 kg ha(-1), 4718.32 kg ha(-1) and 3880.44 kg ha(-1) in NCS, HS and SCM, respectively. Coefficients of variations (CV) for recorded yields were 0.40, 0.30 and 0.27 in NCS, HS and SCM, respectively. Based on comprehensive analysis of both average yields and CV values, we divided the main maize cropping areas into four zone categories: those with high and stable yields (high-stable zone), those with high and unstable yields (high-unstable zone), those with low and stable yields (low-stable zone), and those with low and unstable yields (low-unstable zone). Comparison of Y-p, Y-pw,Y-pws and Y-a at the county level, among the three regions, revealed that precipitation was the most important limiting factor on both averages (56%, 9436.97 kg ha(-1) and 53%, 8114.21 kg ha(-1)) and CVs (0.42 and 0.39) of yield in all four zone types in NCS and HS. On the other hand, technology & management was the most important limiting factor in SCM (39%, 3934.87 kg ha(-1)). Total maize productions were reduced by 47.6% and 52.7% by precipitation in NCS and HS, respectively. Nevertheless, the limiting effect of soil was lower than that of technology & management in NCS, while it was higher in HS. In SCM, technology & management was the most important limiting factor (1295.72 x 10(4) t and 39.3%), followed by precipitation (613.80 x 10(4) t and 18.6%) and soil (219.62 x 10(4) t and 6.7%). In the three main cropping regions, the limiting effect of each factor on total productions in high-stable zone was the highest among all four zone types. Our results could be used to provide a theoretical basis for targeted climate change adaptation policies to improve maize yield and yield stability in China. In addition, our results may serve as a reference for other maize cropping regions in the world.

2018

10.1016/j.eja.2018.07.003

Marzouk, Mohamed; Attia, Khalid; Azab, Shimaa

Assessment of Coastal Vulnerability to Climate Change Impacts using GIS and Remote Sensing: A Case Study of Al-Alamein New City

JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION

Recently, climate change has become a catastrophic phenomenon in the whole world. It has not only devastating effects on the environment but also on the social and economic aspects of societies, especially those seeking to achieve sustainable development. Coastal areas are classified as one of the areas that are particularly exposed to current and projected risks connected to climate change. Selection of suitable climate adaptation means requires an integrated evaluation of climate change impacts and detects the vulnerability degree of various areas exposed to climate change. Therefore, this paper uses Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques to develop a GIS data model (Climate-Coastal Model) for evaluating the long-term impacts of climate changes and delineating the most vulnerable areas in coastal zones. In this regard, specific indicators are needed to detect the vulnerable areas. Four main effective parameters of climate change impacts were selected, which are meteorological parameter, topographical structures parameter (Earth Shape), engineering geology parameter, and shoreline parameter. The paper considered that all indicators in the four parameters have equal weights, where the results depended on changing the values of model indicators during the study period, which is 30 years. Al-Alamein New City in Egypt is presented as a case study to demonstrate the practical features of the proposed model. The results of a developed model according to 30 years study period reveal that the affected areas from climate change impacts are those located along the shoreline. Vulnerability along the shoreline has divided into three categories. The first one represents the least vulnerable areas, which located in Al-Alamein city and constitute about 0.00154 km(2) from the total area (227.65 km(2)). This is due to being affected by low values of meteorological indicators and minor erosion and accretion processes comparing to the other sections. The second one represents the moderate vulnerable areas, which scattered throughout all sections of the case study: Al-Alamein City, Tel Al-Eis, and Sidi Abd El-Rahman. It constitutes about 0.9941 km(2) from the total area. The last one represents the most vulnerable areas, which located also in all sections of the study area and forms about 0.72092 km(2) from the total area which have low elevations below the average mean of sea water level that means it is most vulnerable to any climate change scenarios. It is also affected by high values of coastal erosion, costal accretion, and wind speed as well as a high percentage of dew point. The proposed model is considered as a decision support tool, which helps the decision-makers to detect the vulnerability degree of any areas exposed to climate-change impacts based on multi-criteria and parameter to give the priority for such areas.

2021

10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.125723

Zeleke, Titay; Beyene, Fekadu; Deressa, Temesgen; Yousuf, Jemal; Kebede, Temesgen

Smallholder farmers' perception of climate change and choice of adaptation strategies in East Hararghe Zone, Eastern Ethiopia

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGIES AND MANAGEMENT

Purpose Change of climate is attributed to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere observed over comparable periods. The purpose of this paper is to explore smallholder farmers' perceptions of climate change and compare it with meteorological data, as well as to identify perceived adaptation barriers and examine the factors that influence the choice of adaptation options in eastern Ethiopia. Design/methodology/approach In total, 384 sample households were chosen from four districts of the zone. A cross-sectional survey was used to conduct the study. Primary data was acquired through key informant interviews, focus group discussions and semistructured interviews, whereas meteorological data was collected from the National Meteorological Service Agency of Ethiopia. A Mann-Kendall statistical test was used to analyze temperature and rainfall trends over 33 years. A multivariate probit (MVP) model was used to identify the determinants of farmers' choice of climate change adaptation strategies. Findings The result indicated that temperature was significantly increased, whereas rainfall was significantly reduced over the time span of 33 years. This change in climate over time was consistently perceived by farmers. Smallholder farmers use improved varieties of crops, crop diversification, adjusting planting dates, soil and water conservation practices, reducing livestock holdings, planting trees and small-scale irrigation adaptation strategies. Moreover, this study indicated that sex of the household head, landholding size, livestock ownership, access to extension, access to credit, social capital, market distance, access to climate change-related training, nonfarm income, agroecological setting and poverty status of the households significantly influence farmers' choice of adaptation strategies. Research limitations/implications Further research is required to evaluate the economic impact of each adaptation options on the livelihood of smallholder farmers. Practical implications Institutional variables significantly influenced how farmers adapted to climate change, and all of these issues might potentially be addressed by improving institutional service delivery. To improve farm-level adaptation, local authorities are recommended to investigate the institutional service provision system while also taking demographic and agroecological factors in to account. Originality/value This study compared farmers' perceptions with temperature and rainfall trend analysis, which has been rarely addressed by other studies. This study adopts an MVP model and indicated the adaptation strategies that complement/substitute strategies each other. Furthermore, this study discovered that the choice of adaptation options differed between poor and nonpoor households, which has been overlooked in previous climate change adaptation research.

2023

10.1108/IJCCSM-01-2022-0014

Voegt, Verena; Harrs, Jan-Albrecht; Reinhart, Vanessa; Hollenbach, Pia; Buehler, Michael Max; Tewes, Tim

Implementing Agile Data Workflows to Unlock Climate-Resilient Urban Planning

CLIMATE

Cities around the world are facing the implications of a changing climate as an increasingly pressing issue. The negative effects of climate change are already being felt today. Therefore, adaptation to these changes is a mission that every city must master. Leading practices worldwide demonstrate various urban efforts on climate change adaptation (CCA) which are already underway. Above all, the integration of climate data, remote sensing, and in situ data is key to a successful and measurable adaptation strategy. Furthermore, these data can act as a timely decision support tool for municipalities to develop an adaptation strategy, decide which actions to prioritize, and gain the necessary buy-in from local policymakers. The implementation of agile data workflows can facilitate the integration of climate data into climate-resilient urban planning. Due to local specificities, (supra)national, regional, and municipal policies and (by) laws, as well as geographic and related climatic differences worldwide, there is no single path to climate-resilient urban planning. Agile data workflows can support interdepartmental collaboration and, therefore, need to be integrated into existing management processes and government structures. Agile management, which has its origins in software development, can be a way to break down traditional management practices, such as static waterfall models and sluggish stage-gate processes, and enable an increased level of flexibility and agility required when urgent. This paper presents the findings of an empirical case study conducted in cooperation with the City of Constance in southern Germany, which is pursuing a transdisciplinary and trans-sectoral co-development approach to make management processes more agile in the context of climate change adaptation. The aim is to present a possible way of integrating climate data into CCA planning by changing the management approach and implementing a toolbox for low-threshold access to climate data. The city administration, in collaboration with the University of Applied Sciences Constance, the Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), and the University of Stuttgart, developed a co-creative and participatory project, CoKLIMAx, with the objective of integrating climate data into administrative processes in the form of a toolbox. One key element of CoKLIMAx is the involvement of the population, the city administration, and political decision-makers through targeted communication and regular feedback loops among all involved departments and stakeholder groups. Based on the results of a survey of 72 administrative staff members and a literature review on agile management in municipalities and city administrations, recommendations on a workflow and communication structure for cross-departmental strategies for resilient urban planning in the City of Constance were developed.

2023

10.3390/cli11090174

Yeleliere, Enoch; Nyamekye, Andy Bonaventure; Antwi-Agyei, Philip; Boamah, Emmanuel Frimpong

Strengthening climate adaptation in the northern region of Ghana: insights from a stakeholder analysis

CLIMATE POLICY

Climate change significantly impacts agriculture. Building an informed and collaborative process among stakeholders remains vital in minimizing climate risks and building climate-adaptive and resilient agricultural systems in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). However, stakeholders' involvement and collaboration in agriculture decision-making are framed by institutional, power, and resource dynamics, often ignoring vulnerable stakeholders most susceptible to climate shocks. These collaborative dynamics are less studied in the climate adaptation literature, especially in the context of Ghana and SSA. This study promotes stakeholder engagement and collaboration in climate-adaptive and conservation agriculture (CA) by examining the influence of and relationship dynamics among key stakeholders in the northern region of Ghana (NRG). Drawing from the normative stakeholder theory and literature on climate adaptation intervention, we use multiple qualitative research methods (e.g. brainstorming, semi-structured interviews, and focus group sessions) to profile and explore stakeholders' roles, interests, and collaboration in CA and adaptation interventions. Our findings suggest that collaborations in CA in these smallholder farming communities are often fragmented, providing few collaboration advantages to smallholder farmers. Where collaboration occurs, it is often characterized by redundancy or duplication of roles and functions performed by stakeholders, poor coordination among key government actors, or by conflictual relationships among non-governmental organizations (NGOs); relationships amongst stakeholders are often driven by conflicting interests and asymmetric power differentials. These findings suggest that measures to engage stakeholders must carefully consider aligning stakeholders' interests and addressing power differentials, which are necessary to minimize conflicts in collaborative governance arrangements for adaptation and CA. Key policy insights: Conservation agriculture (CA) creates resilient agricultural systems for enhanced food security and poverty alleviation. Stakeholder roles, interests, and collaborations should be identified to understand who should be included to establish a collaborative connection for adaptation planning. Policymakers should actively engage stakeholders, including smallholder farmers, in the design and implementation of climate adaptation planning and interventions. As the principal resource for adaptation planning and decision-making is the people themselves, engaging them will leverage their knowledge, experiences, and expertise for the design of effective adaptation policies and ensure effective implementation. Collaborative action involving stakeholders can promote effective action on climate change by fostering consensus and building local ability and expertise to collectively adopt adaptation measures.

2022

10.1080/14693062.2022.2134085

Cervelli, Elena; di Perta, Ester Scotto; Pindozzi, Stefania

Energy crops in marginal areas: Scenario-based assessment through ecosystem services, as support to sustainable development

ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS

Starting from the identification of marginal areas, this work presents a possible physical-mathematical approach as a support to landscape planning, based on the pragmatic determination of the predictable environmental effects connected to land use changes (LUC) and related to objective and quantitative ecological indicators for environmental impact assessment. Fringe areas, which are more suitable to change in a medium-short time frame, were determined through a spatial multicriteria decision analysis (S-MCDA) process. Three land use changes scenarios were identified and analysed, namely: the current situation, energy crop cultivation in marginal lands, and the possible abandonment of lands such as these. Energy crop cultivation in marginal lands is widely considered to be a useful opportunity for farmers, against the progressive risk of under-utilization or abandonment; nevertheless, the large areas needed can cause important environmental side-effects. In order to assess the possible variations in environmental components in the ex-ante planning phase, scenarios were assessed in terms of habitat and biodiversity ecosystems services (using both monetary and indexes approach), focusing also on possible environmental fragmentation analysis by means of landscape metrics, which are simple measures used to deepen landscape configuration and structure. The S-MCDA process allowed about 10% of the study area with less favourable environmental conditions to be defined, where land use change is desirable in a medium-short time frame. For the energy crops scenario, the ecosystem services (ESs) approach highlights positive repercussions in terms of habitat quality and biodiversity value. Similar trends are highlighted by different ESs assessment methods adopted (monetary and indexes), confirming themselves. Also, landscape pattern analysis confirmed positive habitat connectivity trends: the delineation of fringe areas has preserved, in energy crops scenario, natural and semi-natural classes, reducing the risk of disturbance with respect to the biodiversity and habitat. This condition assumes that adopted S-MCDA method can contribute positively and significantly to the definition of LUC scenarios and land management. In conclusion, marginal lands can become an opportunity to improve socio-economic conditions and to enhance land image, while respecting the environment. LUC scenarios building, and their assessment by means of ecological indicators become a dynamic and structured tool in the land use planning/management process to support decision maker choices and to re-calibrate interventions, with the aim of contributing to sustainable policies of land management (ecological corridors, compensation and / or mitigation measures, etc.), emphasizing land sustainable management benefits (such as climate change adaptation or disaster risk reduction).

2020

10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106180

Gibson, Peter B.; Rampal, Neelesh; Dean, Samuel M.; Morgenstern, Olaf

Storylines for Future Projections of Precipitation Over New Zealand in CMIP6 Models

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES

Large uncertainty exists in the sign of long-term changes in regional scale mean precipitation across the current generation of global climate models. To explore the physical drivers of this uncertainty for New Zealand, here we adopt a storyline approach applying cluster analysis to spatial patterns of future projected seasonal mean precipitation change across CMIP6 models (n = 43). For the winter precipitation change signal, the models split roughly into two main groups: both groups have a very robust wet signal across the west coast of the South Island but differ notably in terms of the sign of precipitation change across the north of the North Island. These far north winter precipitation differences appear related to how far the Hadley cell edge and regional eddy-driven jet shift across the models relative to their historical positions. In contrast, for summer, most models have a markedly weaker and spatially non-uniform response, where internal variability often plays a large role. However, a small group of models predict a robust wet signal across most of the country in summer. This wet model group is characterized by a regional La Nina-like increase in high pressure shifted further to the south-east of New Zealand, associated with more frequent north-easterly flow over the country and accompanied by significant warming of local sea surface temperatures. This regional circulation response appears related to changes in stationary Rossby wave paths as opposed to changes in La Nina occurrence frequency itself. At the regional scale, future changes to mean precipitation under climate change could carry large societal consequences. Unfortunately, large uncertainties still exist on regional scales which may hinder climate change adaptation efforts. Here we explore and characterize these uncertainties across the latest generation of global climate models for the New Zealand region. Across the models, winter precipitation changes are shown to be much more consistent compared to summer precipitation changes. In winter, changes in the jet stream and Hadley cell edge positions in the models are important for determining the regional spatial patterns of precipitation change. In summer, internal variability uncertainty plays a larger role, models that predict robust wet changes across the country are associated with more north-easterly flow conditions in the future period. Changes to Rossby wave pathways appear important for setting up this regional circulation response in summer. Storylines are used to characterize and explain the main precipitation change patterns across models Spatial patterns of precipitation change are more robust in winter, inter-model differences relate to Hadley cell and jet changes Spatial patterns of precipitation change are less robust in summer, internal variability and Rossby wave pathway changes are important

2024

10.1029/2023JD039664

Devendra, C.

Improved Feed Technologies for Expanding the Productivity Frontiers in Asia: The Importance of System Perspectives for Transforming Waning Animal-agriculture

ANIMAL NUTRITION AND FEED TECHNOLOGY

Agricultural productivity and economic growth have had an unprecedented rate of rural growth, improved livelihoods and increased prosperity in Asia. Feed resources, the primary determinant of productivity, are most important, but are constrained to drive the supply of animal proteins. Currently the scenario is challenged by at least four defining factors: (i) the need for more food and productivity growth, (ii) rampant poverty and malnutrition, (iii) inefficient use of natural resources, and (iv) the effects of climate change. A fifth critical factor is underutilisation of productivity-enhancing technologies, adoption, replication and intensification that link production with post-production in supply value and food chains. Serious doubts have been raised about the capacity and resource efficiency to expand food production. With ruminants, the doubts are reflected in low productivity and inadequate supplies of animal proteins, meat and milk to meet current and projected human demands. Ensuring efficient feed utilisation and production systems are thus central to innovative strategies and pathways are necessary to accelerate productivity and also cope with climate change. Current trend in research on feeds is testing the component technologies. The traditional research-farmer-extension model for technology delivery is unacceptable, due to the top down prescriptions, inappropriate production systems, complex interactions of the natural resources, doubtful technical capacity of the extension personnel, and inability to respond quickly to farmers' needs. Transformation is necessary and is determined by (i) intensive use of new technologies that are adapted to climate change, (ii) empowering farmers into agents of poverty reduction and stewards of the environment, and (iii) when there is community-based participation in economic activities and expansion. Ruminants can be the entry point for the development of LFAs. The limited availability of feeds in small farm systems enables the development of low input systems and cost-effective increased productivity. That forms the backbone of about 470 million mainly mixed small farms in Asian agriculture. They provide jobs for about 60% of the working population, and account for 50-90% of Asia's total food production. The opportunities for technology-induced feed-based productivity gains in economic production systems, policy framework, rigorous R&D, investments, and multinational engagement for improving livelihoods are most challenging. Small farmers and the landless have an enduring dream of well-fed animals, sustained food security, reduced poverty, assured survival, and ability to cope with climate change in harmony with agricultural landscapes and self-reliance. These goals are achievable, provided there is collective will to serve and vision to provide direction and lead the way.

2015

10.5958/0974-181X.2015.00034.7

Iocca, Luciana; Fidelis, Teresa

Are the rights and knowledge of indigenous peoples and local communities being attended to by climate framework laws?

CLIMATE POLICY

Climate change has become a central concern on the international political agenda, challenging the decision-making of different levels of administration and types of actors. Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities (IPLC) have been recognized as relevant actors in climate matters, given their knowledge about territory, biodiversity, and their harmonious practices towards nature. With the evolution of knowledge on climate change, an increasing number of countries have developed climate laws. Given the provisions of the Paris Agreement to consider IPLC and their knowledge for climate action, it is relevant to assess how the contents of these types of laws pursue such ambition. By describing and categorizing the contents of climate laws, this article develops evidence-based research about how IPLC are attended to in climate framework laws of different countries. It examines whether the related contents of these laws align with the recommendation of the Paris Agreement regarding the need to consider traditional, indigenous, and local knowledge in the design of adaptation measures. The results show that only one-third of the identified climate laws refer to IPLC. Within these laws, those communities and their knowledge are scarcely attended to. However, a few climate laws develop relevant elements about these communities. The most common element relates to the participation of IPLC in deliberative bodies or climate decisions. In contrast, the least common element relates to the involvement of relevant communities in climate research. Notably, the climate laws of Finland (Europe) and Peru (South America) emerge as more comprehensive in addressing the IPLC and their knowledge than what is found in other countries. Despite the recognized relevance of IPLC and their traditional knowledge for climate change adaptation, the use of climate framework laws to formally foster such recognition is still lacking. Setting up a scheme to monitor how the translation of the Paris Agreement is being undertaken into subsequent legislative processes is desirable. Such a scheme may clarify how IPLC and their traditional knowledge are effectively being considered as initially expected. International climate policy is increasingly recognizing the rights of IPLC.As a guiding policy and legal instrument at the national level, emerging climate framework laws may usefully protect and engage with these rights to strengthen policy outcomes.By establishing general principles and obligations for national climate policy, climate framework laws can develop mechanisms to address the rights of IPLC and include them in subsequent climate plans and programmes.Climate framework laws can also usefully create mechanisms to monitor the public policy instruments following these laws, contributing to the implementation of climate treaties regarding the rights of IPLC.

2023

10.1080/14693062.2023.2262416

Jeffery, M. Louise; Guetschow, Johannes; Rocha, Marcia R.; Gieseke, Robert

Measuring Success: Improving Assessments of Aggregate Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Goals

EARTHS FUTURE

Long-term success of the Paris Agreement will depend on the effectiveness of the instruments that it sets in place. Key among these are the nationally determined contributions (NDCs), which elaborate country-specific goals for mitigating and adapting to climate change. One role of the academic community and civil society in supporting the Paris Agreement is to assess the consistency between the near-term action under NDCs and the agreement's long-term goals, thereby providing insight into the chances of long-term success. Here we assess the strengths and weaknesses of current methods to estimate the effectiveness of the mitigation component of NDCs and identify the scientific and political advances that could be made to improve confidence in evaluating NDCs against the long-term goals. Specifically, we highlight (1) the influence of post-2030 assumptions on estimated 21st century warming, (2) uncertainties arising from the lack of published integrated assessment modeling scenarios with long-term, moderate effort reflecting a continuation of the current political situation, and (3) challenges in using a carbon budget approach. We further identify aspects that can be improved in the coming years: clearer communication regarding the meaning, likelihood, and timeframe of NDC consistent warming estimates; additional modeling of long-term, moderate action scenarios; and the identification of metrics for assessing progress that are not based solely on emissions, such as infrastructure investment, energy demand, or installed power capacity. Plain Language Summary Under the Paris Agreement, all countries came together to strengthen their commitment to limit warming to well below 2 degrees C and established an aim toward 1.5 degrees C. Each country also presented its own climate action plan, including a description of how it intends to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. A major challenge of the Paris Agreement is ensuring that, when combined, the individual actions of countries are sufficient to achieve the collective long-term goals. In this study, we review the methods used so far to evaluate the sufficiency of the climate action plans and examine how those methods can be improved. A significant difference between current methods is in the assumption of how countries' efforts to reduce emissions will change after the current timeframe of planned action (until 2030)-will it be weaker, stronger, or similar? Some methods are more complex and help to identify opportunities for additional action, while others are better at providing a quick estimate of the warming we can currently expect. We conclude that combining some of the methods we reviewed, modeling of scenarios similar to the current situation, and some clarification in communication would provide a better assessment of collective progress toward the Paris Agreement goals.

2018

10.1029/2018EF000865

Khan, Md Faisal Abedin; Rahman, Md Saifur; Giessen, Lukas

Mangrove forest policy and management: Prevailing policy issues, actors' public claims and informal interests in the Sundarbans of Bangladesh

OCEAN & COASTAL MANAGEMENT

Mangrove forests have enormous ecological and socio-economic importance for a number of different stakeholders and policy actors. Hence, a wide range of often conflicting material interests can be expected surrounding mangrove forest policy and management. These conflicts result in different issues of mangrove policy and management, on which different actors articulate their positions through publicly stated claims. It is unclear, in how far these publicly stated positions and claims resemble the formal interest of the actors only, or if they also reveal parts of their informal interests. In the Sundarbans mangrove forests, a number of issues have arisen, which are of contemporary policy concern. The aim of this study is to identify the most recent issues relating to the Sundarbans in Bangladesh and analyse the actors' claims/arguments on the identified issues which were publicly stated as an expression of formal or informal interest. In order to analyse these public claims, content analysis of selected Bangladeshi national newspapers, experts' deliberations and national policy documents was undertaken as an empirical method to ascertain relevant issues and actors' claims. A theory-based actor typology was applied to distinguish the relevant actors, and the concept of formal and informal interests was employed. The results indicate that the most salient policy issues around mangrove forest policy and management are: establishing Rampal power plant; protection of the Sundarbans forest area; environmental pollution; biodiversity conservation; reputation as a World Natural Heritage Site; relevance for climate change adaptation and mitigation; and local people's livelihoods. Government and Administration are found to be the most active actor in all the observed issues. Surprisingly, only very few administrations partake in public deliberations and the Prime Minister seems to dominate the public debate. This might be explained by the fact that the Rampal power plant project is perceived as the most contentious issue among all actors, with strong discursive support from the Prime Minister. In light of this issue structure, non-governmental actors as well as most bureaucracies are rarely found to actively engage in public debate on mangrove issues while informal interests were being displayed by Prime Minister and non-ruling political parties to a limited extent. Future empirical study to be conducted on the historical trajectory of Rampal power plant addressing the Prime Minister's arguments and environmental concerns of civil society actors. Also it would be worth to map the high degree of bureaucratic rivalry which can be assumed form the conflicting interest in mangrove forests between the responsible ministry-the Ministry of Environment, Forests and Climate Change (MoEFCC) and other ministries in their struggle for power.

2020

10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2019.105090

Sonwa, Denis J.; Nkem, Johnson N.; Idinoba, Monica E.; Bele, Mekou Y.; Jum, Cyprain

Building regional priorities in forests for development and adaptation to climate change in the Congo Basin

MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES FOR GLOBAL CHANGE

Indentifying common priorities in shared natural resource systems constitutes an important platform for implementing adaptation and a major step in sharing a common responsibility in addressing climate change. Predominated by discourses on REDD + (Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation and conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries) with little emphasis on adaptation there is a risk of lack of policy measures in addressing climate change in the Congo Basin. Forest products and ecosystem services provide security portfolios for the predominantly rural communities, and play major roles in national development programmes in both revenue and employment opportunities. Thus, raising the profile of forests in the policy arena especially in the twin roles of addressing climate change in mitigation and adaptation and achieving resilient development is crucial. Within the framework of the Congo Basin Forests and Climate Change Adaptation project (COFCCA) project, science policy dialogue was conducted to identify and prioritize forest based sectors vulnerable to climate change but important to household livelihoods and national development. The goal of the prioritization process was for the development of intervention in forest as measures for climate change adaptation in Central Africa. Participants constituted a wide range of stakeholders (government, Non Governmental Organizations, research institutions, universities, community leaders, private sectors etc.) as representatives from three countries directly involved in the project: Cameroon, Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of Congo. Building on national priorities, four forest related sectors were identified as common priorities at the regional level for focus on climate change adaptation. These sectors included: (1) energy with emphasis on fuel wood and Charcoal; (2) Water principally quality, quantity, accessibility, etc.; (3) Food with emphasis on Non Timber Forest Products, and (4) Health linked to healthcare products (medicinal plants). Using these prioritized sectors, the project focused on addressing the impacts of climate change on local communities and the development of adaptation strategies in the three pilot countries of the Congo Basin region. The four sectors constitute the key for development in the region and equally considered as priority sectors in the poverty reduction papers. Focused research on these sectors can help to inject the role of forests in national and local development and their potentials contributions to climate change adaptation in national and public discourses. Mainstreaming forest for climate change adaptation into national development planning is the key to improve policy coherence and effectiveness in forest management in the region.

2012

10.1007/s11027-011-9335-5

Barnes, Mallory L.; Zhang, Quan; Robeson, Scott M.; Young, Lily; Burakowski, Elizabeth A.; Oishi, A. Christopher.; Stoy, Paul C.; Katul, Gaby; Novick, Kimberly A.

A Century of Reforestation Reduced Anthropogenic Warming in the Eastern United States

EARTHS FUTURE

Restoring and preserving the world's forests are promising natural pathways to mitigate some aspects of climate change. In addition to regulating atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, forests modify surface and near-surface air temperatures through biophysical processes. In the eastern United States (EUS), widespread reforestation during the 20th century coincided with an anomalous lack of warming, raising questions about reforestation's contribution to local cooling and climate mitigation. Using new cross-scale approaches and multiple independent sources of data, we uncovered links between reforestation and the response of both surface and air temperature in the EUS. Ground- and satellite-based observations showed that EUS forests cool the land surface by 1-2 degrees C annually compared to nearby grasslands and croplands, with the strongest cooling effect during midday in the growing season, when cooling is 2-5 degrees C. Young forests (20-40 years) have the strongest cooling effect on surface temperature. Surface cooling extends to the near-surface air, with forests reducing midday air temperature by up to 1 degrees C compared to nearby non-forests. Analyses of historical land cover and air temperature trends showed that the cooling benefits of reforestation extend across the landscape. Locations surrounded by reforestation were up to 1 degrees C cooler than neighboring locations that did not undergo land cover change, and areas dominated by regrowing forests were associated with cooling temperature trends in much of the EUS. Our work indicates reforestation contributed to the historically slow pace of warming in the EUS, underscoring reforestation's potential as a local climate adaptation strategy in temperate regions. A century of eastern US reforestation has had a cooling effect that helps to explain a lack of regional warming in the 20th century, which stands in contrast to warming trends across the rest of North America during the same period. Our study shows that forests across much of the eastern United States have a substantial adaptive cooling benefit for surface temperature, and for the first time, we demonstrate that this benefit also extends to near-surface air temperature. Therefore, reforestation in temperate zones could provide a complementary set of benefits: mitigating climate change by removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, while also helping with adaptation to rising temperatures by cooling surface and air temperatures over large areas. Reforestation in the eastern United States (EUS) contributes to cooling the land surface and near-surface air temperature The biophysical impacts of reforestation help explain the anomalous lack of 20th-century warming in the EUS Reforestation in temperate regions can provide biophysical climate adaptation benefits by cooling surface and air temperatures

2024

10.1029/2023EF003663

Khairul, Islam M.; Rasmy, Mohamed; Koike, Toshio; Takeuchi, Kuniyoshi

Inter-Comparison of Gauge-Corrected Global Satellite Rainfall Estimates and Their Applicability for Effective Water Resource Management in a Transboundary River Basin: The Case of the Meghna River Basin

REMOTE SENSING

The Meghna River basin is a transboundary basin that lies in Bangladesh (similar to 40%) and India (similar to 60%). Due to its terrain structure, the Bangladesh portion of the basin experiences frequent floods that cause severe human and economic losses. Bangladesh, as the downstream nation in the basin, faces challenges in receiving hydro-meteorological and water use data from India for effective water resource management. To address such issue, satellite rainfall products are recognized as an alternative. However, they are affected by biases and, thus, must be calibrated and verified using ground observations. This research compares the performance of four widely available gauge-adjusted satellite rainfall products (GSRPs) against ground rainfall observations in the Meghna basin within Bangladesh. Further biases in the GSRPs are then identified. The GSRPs have both similarities and differences in terms of producing biases. To maximize the usage of the GSRPs and to further improve their accuracy, several bias correction and merging techniques are applied to correct them. Correction factors and merging weights are calculated at the local gauge stations and are spatially distributed by adopting an interpolation method to improve the GSRPs, both inside and outside Bangladesh. Of the four bias correction methods, modified linear correction (MLC) has performed better, and partially removed the GSRPs' systematic biases. In addition, of the three merging techniques, inverse error-variance weighting (IEVW) has provided better results than the individual GSRPs and removed significantly more biases than the MLC correction method for three of the five validation stations, whereas the two other stations that experienced heavy rainfall events, showed better results for the MLC method. Hence, the combined use of IEVW merging and MLC correction is explored. The combined method has provided the best results, thus creating an improved dataset. The applicability of this dataset is then investigated using a hydrological model to simulated streamflows at two critical locations. The results show that the dataset reproduces the hydrological responses of the basin well, as compared with the observed streamflows. Together, these results indicate that the improved dataset can overcome the limitations of poor data availability in the basin and can serve as a reference rainfall dataset for wide range of applications (e.g., flood modelling and forecasting, irrigation planning, damage and risk assessment, and climate change adaptation planning). In addition, the proposed methodology of creating a reference rainfall dataset based on the GSRPs could also be applicable to other poorly-gauged and inaccessible transboundary river basins, thus providing reliable rainfall information and effective water resource management for sustainable development.

2018

10.3390/rs10060828

Cholakova, Siya; Dogramadjieva, Elka

Climate change adaptation in the ski industry: Stakeholders? perceptions regarding a mountain resort in Southeastern Europe

JOURNAL OF OUTDOOR RECREATION AND TOURISM-RESEARCH PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT

Within the ski industry, the production of artificial snow, product diversification, and year-round operation are the three most popular climate change adaptation strategies resorts already apply. The opinions on these of different parties involved in local tourism development are crucial for the overall success of climate change adaptation in a destination. The paper identifies and analyses similarities and differences in various stakeholders' perceptions towards these adaptation scenarios in the ski resort of Pamporovo, Bulgaria. Three stakeholder groups are subjected to study: (1) tourists, (2) representatives of the local tourism industry and authorities, and (3) local population. A mixed method approach is applied comprising questionnaire-based surveys of tourists and residents, with similar questions allowing for direct comparison, and interviews conducted with key local business and authority representatives.Results clearly indicate that the strategy most preferred by local tourism business - artificial snow production - is not one-sidedly perceived by customers and residents. Most tourists would want the resort to demonstrate its own unique atmosphere, combined with a variety of activities and year-round operation. The strategies for product diversification and all-year operation are even wider supported by residents since these would create permanent employment opportunities. However, their implementation is questioned by local business repre-sentatives. Considering the perceptions found in the study, none of the three strategies can be efficient on its own. A balanced approach of combining different adaptation strategies should be taken to achieve sustainable adaptation to all sorts of crises, not only limited to climate change.Management implications: The choice of climate change adaptation is a difficult task for every ski resort and the implementation may fail due to contrasting stakeholder opinions. Our results reveal that artificial snow pro-duction is currently seen as the most important and at the same time the most problematic adaptation strategy. While many tourists and locals are uncertain if they support it or not, business representatives strongly rely on it, with just a few interviewees considering it a short-term solution only. In theory, product diversification and four-season resort operation receive considerable support from all interested parties since they would refresh the mature ski industry and guarantee full employment opportunities. However, key informants from the business question the diversification strategy as not cost-effective and some doubt the mass success of four-season op-erations. Overall, the successful management of a small vulnerable ski destination should balance between cost-effective snow production and diversified unique product, preferably offered all-year round.

2023

10.1016/j.jort.2023.100611

Tauzer, Erica; Borbor-Cordova, Mercy J.; Mendoza, Jhoyzett; De La Cuadra, Telmo; Cunalata, Jorge; Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M.

A participatory community case study of periurban coastal flood vulnerability in southern Ecuador

PLOS ONE

Background Populations in coastal cities are exposed to increasing risk of flooding, resulting in rising damages to health and assets. Adaptation measures, such as early warning systems for floods (EWSFs), have the potential to reduce the risk and impact of flood events when tailored to reflect the local social-ecological context and needs. Community perceptions and experiences play a critical role in risk management, since perceptions influence people's behaviors in response to EWSFs and other interventions. Methods We investigated community perceptions and responses in flood-prone periurban areas in the coastal city of Machala, Ecuador. Focus groups (n = 11) were held with community members (n = 65 people) to assess perceptions of flood exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and current alert systems. Discussions were audio recorded, transcribed, and coded by topic. Participatory maps were field validated, georeferenced, and digitized using GIS software. Qualitative data were triangulated with historical government information on rainfall, flood events, population demographics, and disease outbreaks. Results Flooding was associated with seasonal rainfall, El Nino events, high ocean tides, blocked drainage areas, overflowing canals, collapsed sewer systems, and low local elevation. Participatory maps revealed spatial heterogeneity in perceived flood risk across the community. Ten areas of special concern were mapped, including places with strong currents during floods, low elevation areas with schools and homes, and other places that accumulate stagnant water. Sensitive populations included children, the elderly, physically handicapped people, low-income families, and recent migrants. Flood impacts included damages to property and infrastructure, power outages, and the economic cost of rebuilding/repairs. Health impacts included outbreaks of infectious diseases, skin infections, snakebite, and injury/ drowning. Adaptive capacity was weakest during the preparation and recovery stages of flooding. Participants perceived that their capacity to take action was limited by a lack of social organization, political engagement, and financial capital. People perceived that flood forecasts were too general, and instead relied on alerts via social media. Conclusions This study highlights the challenges and opportunities for climate change adaptation in coastal cities. Areas of special concern provide clear local policy targets. The participatory approach presented here (1) provides important context to shape local policy and interventions in Ecuador, complimenting data gathered through standard flood reports, (2) provides a voice for marginalized communities and a mechanism to raise local awareness, and (3) provides a research framework that can be adapted to other resource-limited coastal communities at risk of flooding.

2019

10.1371/journal.pone.0224171

Zhang, Yanze; Chao, Nengfang; Li, Fupeng; Yue, Lianzhe; Wang, Shuai; Chen, Gang; Wang, Zhengtao; Yu, Nan; Sun, Runzhi; Ouyang, Guichong

Reconstructing Long-Term Arctic Sea Ice Freeboard, Thickness, and Volume Changes from Envisat, CryoSat-2, and ICESat-2

JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING

The rapid decline of Arctic sea ice (ASI) has significantly impacted the global climate, polar ecosystems, and shipping courses. Precise long-term and high-resolution changes in ASI estimates are crucial for adapting to climate change and developing Arctic marine resources. Satellite altimeters have been applied to detect ASI for several decades. However, the mission periods of various altimetry satellites are limited, making it challenging to estimate the long-term change process of ASI thickness from the observations of a single altimetry satellite or simply combining multi-source satellite altimetry data. The purpose of this study is to comprehensively obtain continuous long-term ASI freeboard, thickness, and volume characteristics using the gridded nadirization method from Envisat, CryoSat-2, and ICESat-2 altimeter data. The relationship between surface temperature and surface wind field is also investigated. The freeboard, thickness, extent, and area of ASI consistently showed loss trends during 2002-2021, and sea ice volume decreased by 5437 km3/month. Sea surface temperature and sea surface wind field are two of the essential influencing factors on ASI variations. This study will assist in clarifying the relationship between climate variations and the ASI decline. Abstract: Satellite altimeters have been used to monitor Arctic sea ice (ASI) thickness for several decades, but whether the different altimeter missions (such as radar and laser altimeters) are in agreement with each other and suitable for long-term research needs to be investigated. To analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of ASI, continuous long-term first-year ice, and multi-year ice of ASI freeboard, thickness, and volume from 2002 to 2021 using the gridded nadirization method from Envisat, CryoSat-2, and ICESat-2, altimeter data are comprehensively constructed and assessed. The influences of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface wind field (SSW) on ASI are also discussed. The freeboard/thickness and extent/area of ASI all varied seasonally and reached their maximum and minimum in April and October, March and September, respectively. From 2002 to 2021, the freeboard, thickness, extent, and area of ASI all consistently showed downward trends, and sea ice volume decreased by 5437 km(3)/month. SST in the Arctic rose by 0.003 degrees C/month, and the sea ice changes lagged behind this temperature variation by one month between 2002 and 2021. The meridional winds blowing from the central Arctic region along the eastern coast of Greenland to the North Atlantic each month are consistent with changes in the freeboard and thickness of ASI. SST and SSW are two of the most critical factors driving sea ice changes. This study provides new data and technical support for monitoring ASI and exploring its response mechanisms to climate change.

2023

10.3390/jmse11050979

Kanji, Repaul; Agrawal, Rajat

Exploring the use of corporate social responsibility in building disaster resilience through sustainable development in India: An interpretive structural modelling approach

PROGRESS IN DISASTER SCIENCE

The indomitable spirit of growth of mankind has led to rapid urbanisation, steered by industries and corporates. While globalisation and development mark the good face of the consequential coin, increased frequency of extreme events and disaster risks along with the phenomenon of climate change, marks the dark face of the same coin. Each time the society takes a catastrophic hit, humanity begs to question the role of corporates in disaster mitigation, management and rehabilitation. The most popular way of engagement for the corporates in such a time of dire need is through providing relief and support, be it in cash, kind, man-power etc. The idea of this study evolves from this very trend which appears to be embedded in the socio-political fibre of our society, especially India. The Companies Act, 2013 of India has steered India into becoming one of the few countries with a mandatory CSR regime. The avenues of expenditure, as mandated by the government, effectively circumscribes the objectives of sustainable development. This study finds its genesis in the logical question that follows this premise; since expenditure through CSR is already mandatory in India and is directed towards sustainable development, why not channel such investments in such a manner that disaster resilience and climate change adaptation becomes inclusive of the final objective of sustainable development? However, the socio-political ecosystemis not conducive to enforce such a paradigm shift; from CSR expenditures in relief and rehabilitation to disaster resilience oriented sustainable development. Hence, the purpose of this study is to identify those crucial elements of our society and their inter-dependencies which when ideally tweaked and nurtured will lead to a social setup where CSR investments would lead to sustainable development inclusive of disaster resilience. Extensive literature review was done to identify elements or enablers, which are critical in bringing about a change in the present socio-political texture of CSR investment and engagement. Questionnaire survey and interviews were used as a tool to judge and evaluate these enablers. Discussions and debates leading to feed backs and inputs from twenty experts from the relevant field and academicians were used for further refinement of the enablers and then the enablers were subjected to Interpretive Structural Modelling (ISM) which brought out the contextual relationships among the enablers. The resultant model is illustrated in the form of a hierarchical structure of enablers revealing their inter-dependencies and relations with each-other. This would help policymakers, corporates and other stakeholders to understand and know those, already existing, societal elements which when tapped upon would not only benefit them but also help in building a disaster resilient society.

2020

10.1016/j.pdisas.2020.100089

Liu, Dedi; Guo, Shenglian; Shao, Quanxi; Liu, Pan; Xiong, Lihua; Wang, Le; Hong, Xingjun; Xu, Yao; Wang, Zhaoli

Assessing the effects of adaptation measures on optimal water resources allocation under varied water availability conditions

JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY

Human activities and climate change have altered the spatial and temporal distribution of water availability which is a principal prerequisite for allocation of different water resources. In order to quantify the impacts of climate change and human activities on water availability and optimal allocation of water resources, hydrological models and optimal water resource allocation models should be integrated. Given that increasing human water demand and varying water availability conditions necessitate adaptation measures, we propose a framework to assess the effects of these measures on optimal allocation of water resources. The proposed model and framework were applied to a case study of the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang River Basin in China. Two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP4.5) were employed to project future climate, and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model was used to simulate the variability of flows under historical (1956-2011) and future (2012-2099) conditions. The water availability determined by simulating flow with the VIC hydrological model was used to establish the optimal water resources allocation model. The allocation results were derived under an extremely dry year (with an annual average water flow frequency of 95%), a very dry year (with an annual average water flow frequency of 90%), a dry year (with an annual average water flow frequency of 75%), and a normal year (with an annual average water flow frequency of 50%) during historical and future periods. The results show that the total available water resources in the study area and the inflow of the Danjiangkou Reservoir will increase in the future. However, the uneven distribution of water availability will cause water shortage problems, especially in the boundary areas. The effects of adaptation measures, including water saving, and dynamic control of flood limiting water levels (FLWLs) for reservoir operation, were assessed and implemented to alleviate water shortages. The negative impacts from the South-to-North Water Transfer Project (Middle Route) in the mid-lower reaches of the Hanjiang River Basin can be avoided through the dynamic control of FLWLs in Danjiangkou Reservoir, under the historical and future RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios. However, the effects of adaptation measures are limited due to their own constraints, such as the characteristics of the reservoirs influencing the FLWLs. The utilization of storm water appears necessary to meet future water demand. Overall, the results indicate that the framework for assessing the effects of adaptation measures on water resources allocation might aid water resources management, not only in the study area but also in other places where water availability conditions vary due to climate change and human activities.

2018

10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.12.002

Dhanya, Punnoli; Geethalakshmi, Vellingiri; Ramanathan, Subbiah; Senthilraja, Kandasamy; Sreeraj, Punnoli; Pradipa, Chinnasamy; Bhuvaneshwari, Kulanthaisamy; Vengateswari, Mahalingam; Dheebakaran, Ganesan; Kokilavani, Sembanan; Karthikeyan, Ramasamy; Sathyamoorthy, Nagaranai Karuppasamy

Impacts and Climate Change Adaptation of Agrometeorological Services among the Maize Farmers of West Tamil Nadu

AGRIENGINEERING

Climate change is often linked with record-breaking heavy or poor rainfall events, unprecedented storms, extreme day and night time temperatures, etc. It may have a marked impact on climate-sensitive sectors and associated livelihoods. Block-level weather forecasting is a new-fangled dimension of agrometeorological services (AAS) in the country and is getting popularized as a climate-smart farming strategy. Studies on the economic impact of these microlevel advisories are uncommon. Agromet advisory services (AAS) play a critical role as an early warning service and preparedness among the maize farmers in the Parambikulam-Aliyar Basin, as this area still needs to widen and deepen its AWS network to reach the village level. In this article, the responses of the maize farmers of Parambikulam-Aliyar Basin on AAS were analyzed. AAS were provided to early and late Rabi farmers during the year 2020-2022. An automatic weather station was installed at the farmers' field to understand the real-time weather. Forecast data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) were used to provide agromet advisory services. Therefore, the present study deserves special focus. Social media and other ICT tools were used for AAS dissemination purposes. A crop simulation model (CSM), DSSAT4.7cereal maize, was used for assessing maize yield in the present scenario and under the elevated GHGs scenario under climate change. Our findings suggest that the AAS significantly supported the farmers in sustaining production. The AAS were helpful for the farmers during the dry spells in the late samba (2021-2022) to provide critical irrigation and during heavy rainfall events at the events of harvest during early and late Rabi (2021-22). Published research articles on the verification of weather forecasts from South India are scanty. This article also tries to understand the reliability of forecasts. Findings from the verification suggest that rainfall represented a fairly good forecast for the season, though erratic, with an accuracy score or HI score of 0.77 and an HK score of 0.60, and the probability of detection (PoD) of hits was found to be 0.91. Verification shows that the forecasted relative humidity observed showed a fairly good correlation, with an R-2 value of 0.52. These findings suggest that enhancing model forecast accuracy can enhance the reliability and utility of AAS as a climate-smart adaptation option. This study recommends that AAS can act as a valuable input to alleviate the impacts of hydrometeorological disasters on maize crop production in the basin. There is a huge demand for quality weather forecasts with respect to accuracy, resolution, and lead time, which is increasing across the country. Externally funded research studies such as ours are an added advantage to bridge the gap in AAS dissemination to a great extent.

2022

10.3390/agriengineering4040065

Clermont-Dauphin, Cathy; Suvannang, Nopmanee; Pongwichian, Pirach; Cheylan, Vincent; Hammecker, Claude; Harmand, Jean-Michel

Dinitrogen fixation by the legume cover crop Pueraria phaseoloides and transfer of fixed N to Hevea brasiliensis-Impact on tree growth and vulnerability to drought

AGRICULTURE ECOSYSTEMS & ENVIRONMENT

Rubber tree plantations (Hevea brasiliensis) are expanding into marginal areas with low soil fertility and long dry seasons with a high risk of soil erosion and drought damage to trees. Introducing an N-2-fixing legume cover crop in rubber plantations may reduce runoff and soil erosion as well as increasing the availability of nutrients but may also increase competition for water. This study quantified the effect of the legume cover crop Pueraria phaseoloides on N, P and K nutrition, water status and growth of young rubber trees (three years old in 2007) over a four year period (2007-2010). The plantation was located on a toposequence with a range of soil depths and water storage capacities in northeast Thailand. The legume aboveground biomass production and its nutrient content and decomposition rate were measured and the N-2 fixation was estimated using the abundance of N-15 (delta N-15) in the legume. Measurements were taken of the tree stem girth and height and tree leaf predawn water potential, nutrient content and greenness. The transfer of N2 fixed by the cover crop to the trees was estimated using delta N-15 in the tree leaves. The annual biomass production of the legume was 8 Mg ha(-1) year(-1) and the N accumulation by the legume was 250 kg N ha(-1) year(-1). The natural abundance method applied to the aboveground components of the legume gave N-2 fixation rates varying from 85 to 93% depending on the year. The leaf delta N-15 was similar in the three non-legumes (H. brasiliensis,Vetiveria zizanioides and Praxelis clematidea) used as reference plants for estimating the N-2 fixation. The higher level of N and the much lower leaf delta N-15 values for the rubber trees intercropped with P. phaseoloides, compared to rubber trees growing without a legume cover crop, showed that there was a relatively high transfer of fixed N from the legume to the trees, varying from 39% to 46% of tree leaf N depending on the year. Neither N2 fixation nor N transfer varied significantly along the toposequence. At the bottom of the toposequence, both the nutrient (N, P and K) and water status of trees was significantly improved with the legume cover crop, doubling the tree girth at seven years of age (tree girth: 28 cm, tree height: 700 cm). However, at the top of the toposequence with low water storage capacity, the legume cover crop improved tree nutrition and growth but reduced the trees' ability, to survive intense drought. These results raise concern about the resilience to drought of the rubber tree/P. phaseoloides system, since the positive effect of the legume on rubber tree nutrition and growth may increase the risk of water stress and tree mortality. With future changes in climate, an increasing number of areas will be concerned by the question of optimizing the tradeoff between N inputs and water availability.

2016

10.1016/j.agee.2015.11.002

Lu, Ming; Sun, Guofei; Wang, Endong; He, Zichong

Modeling of Energy Saving and Comfort of Building Layout in Extreme Weather Urban Residential Area under the Background of Spatial Structure and Form Evolution: Taking Yichun as an Example

JOURNAL OF FUNCTION SPACES

After the founding of the People's Republic of China, the state formulated the first five-year plan for national economic development with the development of heavy industry as the core. The assistance of the Soviet Union completely opened the prelude to China's large-scale industrial construction. With the continuous increase of urban energy consumption in China and the huge pressure it brings to the environment, urban planning and design aiming at energy conservation and climate adaptability has attracted more and more attention. Residential building layout is an important part of urban planning and design, which is closely related to building environmental energy consumption and urban microclimate. Therefore, it is necessary to study the energy saving and climate adaptive design strategy of residential building layout. Yichun is a cold city, located in the northernmost part of the three northeastern provinces, with a population of about 1 million. Its climate is characterized by continuous low temperature in winter, and the extreme value of daily lowest air temperature in Yichun City since 1981 is similar to 42.2 degrees C. The highest temperature in summer is 35 degrees C. The unique geographical location and climate have created Yichun's unique urban quality, and outdoor cultural activities are also unique. Yichun is a place with four distinct seasons, and each season has its own characteristics. The beauty of the four seasons contrasts greatly. The best travel time in Yichun is from June to September. In this study, the scientific nature of environment numerical simulation software is verified. Taking the surrounding residential open space as the research object, reasonable grid simulation size and initial boundary conditions are set. The quantitative relationship between design elements and thermal comfort level is established through software simulation. After repeated and a large number of hourly simulation verification, combined with the spatial distribution map and numerical distribution map of thermal comfort, the design elements and open space are established. On this basis, the optimization strategies of open space in residential areas in extreme weather areas are put forward, including the reasonable layout of activity areas, careful selection of open positions, attention to the proportion of open space, attention to plane enclosure and corner units, encouragement of secondary restrictions of activity space, reasonable selection of underlying surface materials, and reasonable layout of water bodies. This paper mainly studies the design of outdoor communication space in Yichun residential area in winter. The average temperature in winter is -14 degrees C similar to -2 degrees C. Through the study of design methods and countermeasures, an operable Yichun residential area design method is found.

2022

10.1155/2022/6892035

Freitas, Emanuelle Neiverth de; Salgado, Jose Carlos Santos; Alnoch, Robson Carlos; Contato, Alex Graca; Habermann, Eduardo; Michelin, Michele; Martinez, Carlos Alberto; Polizeli, Maria de Lourdes T. M.

Challenges of Biomass Utilization for Bioenergy in a Climate Change Scenario

BIOLOGY-BASEL

Simple Summary The most recent intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC 2021) has shown that the human influence on climate change has been unprecedented, predicting a global temperature increase of 1.5 degrees C in the earlies 2030s. The burning of fossil fuels has increased the emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4), and carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere, amplifying the greenhouse effect in the last decades. In this scenario, the use of biorefineries, a renewable analog to petroleum refineries, has attracted a lot of attention since they use renewable sources as lignocellulosic feedstocks. However, climate change alters the temperature, rainfall patterns, drought, CO2 levels, and air moisture impacting biomass growth, productivity, chemical composition, and soil microbial community. Here, we discuss strategies to produce fuels and value-added products from biomass in a climate change scenario, potential feedstocks for bioenergy purposes, the chemical composition of lignocellulosic biomass, enzymes involved in biomass deconstruction, and other processes related to biomass production, processing, and conversion. Understanding these integrated factors involved in bioenergy production with plant responses to climate change shows that climate-smart agriculture is the only way to lower the negative impact of climate changes on crop adaptation and its use for bioenergy. The climate changes expected for the next decades will expose plants to increasing occurrences of combined abiotic stresses, including drought, higher temperatures, and elevated CO2 atmospheric concentrations. These abiotic stresses have significant consequences on photosynthesis and other plants' physiological processes and can lead to tolerance mechanisms that impact metabolism dynamics and limit plant productivity. Furthermore, due to the high carbohydrate content on the cell wall, plants represent a an essential source of lignocellulosic biomass for biofuels production. Thus, it is necessary to estimate their potential as feedstock for renewable energy production in future climate conditions since the synthesis of cell wall components seems to be affected by abiotic stresses. This review provides a brief overview of plant responses and the tolerance mechanisms applied in climate change scenarios that could impact its use as lignocellulosic biomass for bioenergy purposes. Important steps of biofuel production, which might influence the effects of climate change, besides biomass pretreatments and enzymatic biochemical conversions, are also discussed. We believe that this study may improve our understanding of the plant biological adaptations to combined abiotic stress and assist in the decision-making for selecting key agronomic crops that can be efficiently adapted to climate changes and applied in bioenergy production.

2021

10.3390/biology10121277

Morin, Samuel; Francois, Hugues; Reveillet, Marion; Sauquet, Eric; Crochemore, Louise; Branger, Flora; Leblois, Etienne; Dumont, Marie

Simulated hydrological effects of grooming and snowmaking in a ski resort on the local water balance

HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES

The presence of a ski resort modifies the snow cover at the local scale, due to snow management practices on ski pistes, especially grooming and snowmaking. Snow management exerts 2-fold effects on the local hydrological cycle, through (i) abstraction and transfer of water used for snowmaking, and (ii) changes in water runoff due to added snow mass through snowmaking and/or delayed melting of the snowpack due to snow grooming. This induces a local pressure on water resources, which has seldom been addressed in scientific studies hitherto.Here we introduce a method to compute the hydrological effects of snow management on ski pistes and we apply and illustrate its results for the case study of the La Plagne ski resort in the Northern French Alps. The approach mainly relies on snow cover modelling using the Crocus snow cover driven by SAFRAN reanalysis and climate projections. Model results are evaluated against in-situ hydrological observations and show that the modelling approach, although very simplified for many hydrological processes, provides relevant information and insights in terms of the influence of snow-related processes on water resources.Our study shows a visible impact of grooming, virtually eliminating snowmelt in winter, thus delaying the onset of snowmelt. This results is a lower snowmelt flux during the wintertime, low flow period, on the order of - 10 % to - 20 %, compensated by higher amounts when snow melts. While about 10 % of the water used for snowmaking is estimated to be lost by evaporation through the ice formation process from the liquid water droplets, we find that, in the case studied, the annual scale alteration of water resources is limited and estimated to be on the order of 1 % to 2 %. This is due to the fact that the amount of water used for snowmaking on ski pistes represents a fraction of 10 % to 20 % of total annual precipitation, that ski pistes cover typically 10 % of the surface area of catchments within which ski resorts are located, and that snowmaking equipment covers, in the case of La Plagne, 40 % of the surface area of ski pistes. Therefore, in this case, snowmaking mainly leads to a moderate shift in snow cover formation and snowmelt processes and plays, for example, a smaller role than the influence of future climate change on mountain hydrology.This study provides an initial overview of the influence of grooming and snowmaking on river flows in a mountain catchment, which can inform future studies on water management and climate change adaptation in areas with ski tourism facilities. This study does not discuss long-term sustainability challenges of ski tourism and other aspects of the local environmental impacts (landscape, biodiversity) of snow management, such as the construction and use of mountain water reservoirs and other earthworks in ski resorts.

2023

10.5194/hess-27-4257-2023

Butt, Firdous; Yasinzai, Masoom; Malik, Shaukat Iqbal; Munir, Anum

Isolation and Characterization of Leishmanial Adenine Aminohydrolase as a Drug Target

CURRENT COMPUTER-AIDED DRUG DESIGN

Background: Search for new drug targets is becoming imperative these days, given that marketed chemotherapeutic drugs have lost their efficacy against harmful agents because of adaptability to climatic changes and co-evolving vectors to new hosts. In the wake of such a challenge, the prominence of biochemical studies is increasing by way of exploring selective enzymes and investigating their structural and functional properties through biochemical kinetic parameter Km for the application of IC50 using designed drugs. Recently, discovered Adenine Aminohydrolase (EC 3.5.4.2) in Leishmania has been found to be absent in mammalian purine salvage pathway and thus considered as a promising drug target against infectious agents. Objectives: The objective of this study is to isolate and characterize AAH by learning its kinetic mode of action using preferred substrate Adenine and additives estimated through expected product formation Hypoxanthine. Bioassays designed to measure exact Enzyme kinetic parameter Km value through establishing hyperbolic curve of an enzyme reaction with the use of exact values of cellular quantities for IC50 application under experimental conditions devised by presteady state approach for SSA validity. Methods: Following saturation kinetic, the plot of hyperbolic equilibrium curve developed using initial rates of product formation as a function of (Si) through forward shift under circumstance dG0 the system allows product and reactant favored reactions in relation to (Ef) approximate to [E0 = KM] until complete saturation and estimates Km and Vmax of enzyme system under applied conditions. M-M equation used to assess experimental initial rate data for estimation of Km on excel using Solver and nonlinear least square coefficient correlation R2 using logarithmic equation for nonlinear curve assessment. teristic reaction constant Km equal toi15. 0 +/- 2 mu mol acquired from the Hyperbolic curve developed through the use of exact (Si) ranges at selected parameter Km and Vmax. The curve assessed by Michaelis Menten equation provides Km value=14.99 mu mol and non-linear least square coefficient correlation R2 value equal to 0.9895, along with that optimized lysis buffer formulation. In the docked complexes, the interactive amino acids identified were MSE441, ALA 364, GLN363, MSE518, VAL362, GLY517, ASP538, ALA445, TYR521, and TYR444. 2D interactions revealed hydrophobic and alkyl interactions at the noncompetitive binding site of the enzyme and therefore recommended as potential inhibitors against 3ICS protein. Conclusion: This study encourages biochemical analysis of the novel enzymes with the use of presteady state rationale in association with the computational tools as an effective way of designing drugs in a short time against selective enzymes to meet the current challenge efficiently.

2021

10.2174/1573409916666201207194815

Rotz, C. A.; Skinner, R. H.; Stoner, A. M. K.; Hayhoe, K.

EVALUATING GREENHOUSE GAS MITIGATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION IN DAIRY PRODUCTION USING FARM SIMULATION

TRANSACTIONS OF THE ASABE

Process-level modeling at the farm scale provides a tool for evaluating strategies for both mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to climate change. The Integrated Farm System Model (IFSM) simulates representative crop, beef, or dairy farms over many years of weather to predict performance, economics, and environmental impacts including various emissions and a farm-gate life cycle assessment of carbon, energy, water, and reactive nitrogen footprints of the feed, meat, or milk produced. To illustrate use of the model, a representative dairy farm in central New York was simulated over 25 years of recent historical weather to determine the environmental benefits and economic costs of alternative manure handling strategies. Use of an enclosed manure storage with a flare to burn the methane produced decreased the farm-gate carbon footprint of the milk produced by 20% at an increased annual cost of $42 cow(-1). Using an anaerobic digester to produce gas and electricity used on the farm reduced the carbon footprint by 19% and reduced profitability by $56 cow(-1). The addition of subsurface injection of manure along with a reduction in N fertilizer use greatly reduced ammonia emission from the farm and increased annual profit by $9 cow(-1). Climate change is projected to affect many aspects of dairy production, including growing season length, crop growth processes, harvest timing and losses, cattle performance, nutrient emissions and losses, and ultimately farm profitability. Climate projections for high and low emission scenarios were downscaled from nine general circulation models. IFSM was then used to simulate the same New York dairy farm over 25-year periods using recent, mid-century, and late century climate projected by each of the climate models. Simulations were done without and with adaptation through modified crop varieties and planting and harvest dates. Forage production normally increased with projected climate change and corn grain yields decreased, and together feed production was maintained. Warmer temperatures increased volatile loss of ammonia N, and changes in precipitation patterns increased nutrient runoff losses in surface water. The reactive N footprint of the milk produced was increased by 2% to 11% with the change in climate, but other environmental footprints were relatively unaffected. With appropriate adaptation to climate change, annual farm profitability increased by about $100 cow(-1). However, for the high emission, late century projection, profit decreased by $10 cow(-1) and the risk or annual variance in profit increased by 34%, reflecting greater annual variation in crop and animal productivity. Whole-farm and climate models provide useful tools for studying the benefits and costs of greenhouse gas mitigation and the adaptation of farms to changing climate.

2016

10.13031/trans.59.11594

Tandon, Rajesh; Srinivasan, Sumitra

Learning from life: The value of everyday knowledge for empowerment and change

INTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF EDUCATION

The use of participatory research and participation to promote the empowerment of the poor and marginalised began in the 1970s and gained momentum in the early 1980s. The approach builds on the learning for change paradigm in which everyday experience is the basis for developing agency, and committing to and taking action to create change, both individually and collectively. The paradigm has been used over decades, and in several contexts (e.g. women's literacy and political leadership, work health and safety, access to and control over natural resources, prevention of sexual harassment and violence against women, social accountability and participatory monitoring, access to basic services, and climate adaptation and resilience). In this research note, some of these contexts - work health and safety, women's political leadership, the urban poor and gender-based violence - are used as practical exemplars of work conducted by the non-profit research and training organisation Participatory Research in Asia (PRIA) to support poor, excluded and marginalised communities. The experiences shared in this research note bear witness to the power of popular knowledge and the inclusion of marginalised voices for transformatory, people-centric development.

2024

10.1007/s11159-023-10057-3

Goda, Ashraf M. A. -S.; Aboseif, Ahmed M.; Mohammedy, Eman Y.; Taha, Mostafa K. S.; Mansour, Ahmed I. A.; Ramadan, Enas A.; Aboushabana, Nevine M.; Zaher, Marwa M.; Otazus, Nora Ibanes; Ashour, Mohamed

Earthen pond-based floating beds for rice-fish co-culture as a novel concept for climate adaptation, water efficiency improvement, nitrogen and phosphorus management

AQUACULTURE

The current study was carried out to evaluate and investigate a unique rice/fish-polyculture as Integrated Aquaculture-Agriculture Systems (IAAS) model established in Egypt, using Earthen Pond-based Floating Bed (EPFB). This novel idea is intended to improve Water, Nitrogen, and Phosphorus Use Efficiency (WUE, NUE, and PUE, respectively). Three experiments were carried out in this investigation. The first and second experiments investigated the effects of rice planting density (20, 25, and 30 plant m2) and rice seed germination methods (Styrofoam Trays Technique, SFT; Directly Outside Germination method, DOG, and Outside Germination for 24 h, 24 h-OG) on rice characteristics, N-contents, P-contents, N-retention, and P-retention of different rice parts. While the third trial, which lasted 90 days, assessed the impact of the EPFB on rice production characteristics, fish growth performances, and nutrient utilization efficiency (N-, P-contents, and retentions) in comparison to Traditional Rice Cultivation (TRC). In terms of rice production characteristics, 30 plants m- 2 had the highest significant (p < 0.05) yield values. A density of 20 plants m- 2 produced the highest N-contents and total dietary P-content values in rice stem and leaf, whereas a density of 30 plant m- 2 produced the highest total dietary Nretention and P-content values. The SFT approach produced the most significant results in terms of rice production variables and total yield, with the EPFB surpassing the TRC in terms of rice production characteristics. TRC produced slightly more (4412.32 kg Fadden -1, 2.5%) than EPFB (4295.58 kg Fadden -1). The EPFB system demonstrated a cumulative improvement in apparent FCR values (1.15) when compared to the apparent average FCR (1.80) of the polyculture system (catfish and tilapia). In terms of nutrient utilization efficiency (N-content and retention), the EPFB exceeded the TRC with values of 41.49%, 61.16%, 32.39%, and 28.01%, respectively, in root N-content and retention, kernel N-retention, and total N-retention. TRC achieved higher P-contents and Pretentions contents (%) in all rice parts than the EPFB system. EPFB had a total N-retention gain of 70.22% (15.83% in Nile tilapia, 12.15% in catfish, and 42.23% in rice), and a total P-retention gain of 30.68% (7.48% in Nile tilapia, 7.38% in catfish, and 15.82% in rice). FBPS's net income, on the other hand, was 5.45 times that of TCR. In conclusion, fish culture coupled with rice has a low environmental impact since it avoids contaminated streams and recycles wastewater ponds after biological treatment with rice. By producing rice without the use of agrochemical fertilizers, the present unique EPFB idea as an integrated system model can positively boost biomass production, improve WUE, NUE, and PUE, and decrease climate impact.

2024

10.1016/j.aquaculture.2023.740215

Blanchy, Guillaume; Bragato, Gilberto; Di Bene, Claudia; Jarvis, Nicholas; Larsbo, Mats; Meurer, Katharina; Garre, Sarah

Soil and crop management practices and the water regulation functions of soils: a qualitative synthesis of meta-analyses relevant to European agriculture

SOIL

Adopting soil and crop management practices that conserve or enhance soil structure is critical for supporting the sustainable adaptation of agriculture to climate change, as it should help maintain agricultural production in the face of increasing drought or water excess without impairing environmental quality. In this paper, we evaluate the evidence for this assertion by synthesizing the results of 34 published meta-analyses of the effects of such practices on soil physical and hydraulic properties relevant for climate change adaptation in European agriculture. We also review an additional 127 meta-analyses that investigated synergies and trade-offs or help to explain the effects of soil and crop management in terms of the underlying processes and mechanisms. Finally, we identify how responses to alternative soil-crop management systems vary under contrasting agro-environmental conditions across Europe. This information may help practitioners and policymakers to draw context-specific conclusions concerning the efficacy of management practices as climate adaptation tools. Our synthesis demonstrates that organic soil amendments and the adoption of practices that maintain continuous living cover result in significant benefits for the water regulation function of soils, mostly arising from the additional carbon inputs to soil and the stimulation of biological processes. These effects are clearly related to improved soil aggregation and enhanced bio-porosity, both of which reduce surface runoff and increase infiltration. One potentially negative consequence of these systems is a reduction in soil water storage and groundwater recharge, which may be problematic in dry climates. Some important synergies are reductions in nitrate leaching to groundwater and greenhouse gas emissions for nonleguminous cover crop systems. The benefits of reducing tillage intensity appear much less clear-cut. Increases in soil bulk density due to traffic compaction are commonly reported. However, biological activity is enhanced under reduced tillage intensity, which should improve soil structure and infiltration capacity and reduce surface runoff and the losses of agro-chemicals to surface water. However, the evidence for these beneficial effects is inconclusive, while significant trade-offs include yield penalties and increases in greenhouse gas emissions and the risks of leaching of pesticides and nitrate. Our synthesis also highlights important knowledge gaps on the effects of management practices on root growth and transpiration. Thus, conclusions related to the impacts of management on the crop water supply and other water regulation functions are necessarily based on inferences derived from proxy variables. Based on these knowledge gaps, we outlined several key avenues for future research on this topic.

2023

10.5194/soil-9-1-2023

Lin, Lei; Wang, Zhili; Xu, Yangyang; Fu, Qiang; Dong, Wenjie

Larger Sensitivity of Precipitation Extremes to Aerosol Than Greenhouse Gas Forcing in CMIP5 Models

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES

The sensitivity of precipitation extremes (PEs; i.e., the change in PE per degree of change in global mean surface temperature) to aerosol and greenhouse gas (GHG) forcings is examined using the twentieth century historical multimodel ensemble simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Program phase 5 (CMIP5). We find a robustly larger sensitivity of PE to aerosols than GHGs across all available models. The aerosol/GHG-induced sensitivity ratios for globe-averaged monthly maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation (RX5day) and maximum 1-day precipitation (RX1day) in the multimodel ensemble are 1.6 and 1.4, respectively. Over land, the corresponding ratios for RX5day and RX1day are 2.3 and 1.8, respectively. In particular, the aerosol forcing leads to several times greater sensitivity than GHG forcing in West Africa, eastern China, South and Southeast Asia, northwestern South America, and Eastern Europe. The atmospheric energy balance, dynamical adjustment, and vertical structure of forcing, all contribute to the difference in the PE sensitivity to the two forcings. It is shown that the fast response primarily contributes to the greater-than-one aerosol-to-GHG ratios of the PE sensitivities, as for the mean precipitation. This is because of a stronger rainfall suppression effect induced by the GHG atmospheric forcing. We also find that the aerosol-to-GHG ratios of the PE sensitivities depend on the defined extreme precipitation indices. The aerosol-to-GHG sensitivity ratio is larger for more loosely defined PE, and it gradually converges to one for more severely defined PE. Our results further highlight the importance of considering the anthropogenic aerosol reduction in projecting the change in PE. Plain Language Summary Precipitation extreme (PE) has wide-ranging societal impacts. Warming caused by greenhouse gas (GHG) increases primarily contributes to the increase in PE during recent decades. To mitigate the air pollution, the expected declines of anthropogenic aerosols in the 21st century would impose an additional warming on the Earth, which will aggravate the PE caused by GHGs-induced warming. The ultimate response of PE is thus related to the strength of various forcing agents, and the sensitivity of PE to various forcing agents. We show whether the difference in the PE sensitivity between GHGs and aerosols is robust across models and what mechanisms lead to the difference. A robustly larger sensitivity of PE to aerosols than GHGs across all available models is found. This sensitivity difference is primarily associated with the fast response of PE to various forcings. This study further highlights the importance of considering the anthropogenic aerosol reduction in projecting the change in PE. It has implications for policy making on climate adaptation to PE. Key Points

2018

10.1029/2018JD028821

Lusk, JJ; Guthery, FS; DeMaso, SJ

Northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) abundance in relation to yearly weather and long-term climate patterns

ECOLOGICAL MODELLING

We used a multilayered, backpropagation neural network to investigate the relative effects of yearly weather and long-term climate patterns on the abundance of northern bobwhites (Colinus virginianus: hereafter, bobwhite) in Oklahoma, USA. Bobwhite populations have been declining for several decades across the United States, and predicted global climate change might accelerate the rate of decline. We were interested in whether bobwhite abundance was more responsive to yearly precipitation and temperature, or to annual deviations from long-term mean climate patterns. We used roadside count data collected over a 6 year period (1991-1997) by the Oklahoma Department of Wildlife Conservation as a measure of bobwhite abundance. We standardized quail counts among counties by calculating the standard normal deviate for each county. Weather data were obtained from weather stations closest to the roadside-count route. We had 280 training cases and 68 test-validation cases. Two data sets were constructed: one using yearly weather data (actual rainfall and temperature) and the second using annual deviations from long-term mean values. We conducted simulation analyses to determine the nature of the relationship between each dependent variable and the standardized bobwhite counts. A neural network with eight neurons was most efficient for the yearly weather data, accounting for 25% of the variation in the training data. The adjusted sum-of-squares for this model was 2.42. A four-neuron network was selected for the deviation-from-normal data set, accounting for 23% of the variation in the training data. The adjusted sum-of-squares for the deviation model was 1.44, indicating it performed better than the model for yearly weather patterns. Deviation from long-term mean July and August temperatures combined contributed 31.5% to the climate network's predictions, and deviations from mean winter, spring, and summer precipitation combined contributed 42.8% to the network's predictions. As July temperature increased over the long-term mean, the number of bobwhites counted increased over the route mean, but the relationship decelerated at high July temperatures. Predicted increases in bobwhites counted were highest when August temperatures were below the mean and decreased rapidly for all temperatures greater than the mean. Predicted bobwhite counts increased asymptotically as winter rain increased over the long-term mean, but were greatest at mean spring-rainfall amounts and at below average amounts of summer rainfall. We conclude that the absolute changes in yearly weather pattern predicted by some global change models will not have as great an impact on bobwhite abundance as will the magnitude of the deviations of these values from the climate bobwhites are adapted to in this portion of their range.

2001

10.1016/S0304-3800(01)00292-7

Yang, Qiang; Zheng, Jiazhu; Zhu, Hengchao

Influence of spatiotemporal change of temperature and rainfall on major grain yields in southern Jiangsu Province, China

GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND CONSERVATION

Spatiotemporal differences in temperature and rainfall play an important role in grain production and have wider implications for food security, an issue in China that has received worldwide attention. Jiangsu Province on China's east coast is a major contributor to grain production and therefore the region's climate has particular relevance to research on the nation's food security. This study explores the link between spatiotemporal climate patterns and grain production, which include rice output, summer grain output, and average grain output of those two seasons, using temperature and rainfall data from a study area in southern Jiangsu Province. Meteorological data covering about 40 years (1976-2013) were collected from 13 meteorological stations around the study region. Grain output was acquired from the same year's statistical report from the local government. Based on the thin plate spline method, meteorological data and grain output were interpolated to the same geographic grid. Several statistical methods-regression analysis, moving average, Mann-Kendall, moving t-test, and wavelet analysisdwere used to estimate the changing trends of metrological factors and grain output. The result showed that annual mean temperature, mean maximum temperature, and mean minimum temperature fluctuated and increased, and those changes were more abrupt in the late 1980s and early 1990s, with obvious periodic variation in three time scales: 25-32 years, 15-25 years, and 10-15 years. For abnormal annual rainfall, rainfall showed significant interannual difference in the region from 1976 to 2013. The results indicated that abrupt changes occurred from 1979 to 1980 and again from 2006 to 2007. Annual and seasonal rainfall also showed obvious periodic variation at the three time scales. The growth variation of average grain output increased with some fluctuation and was different in different periods. It gradually decreased from southeast to northwest, and had a very different spatial pattern. The annual mean temperature played an important role in agricultural production, but the annual rainfall had little effect on agriculture for annual and seasonal fluctuation from 1976 to 2013. Temperature indexes in spring, summer, and autumn had a significant effect on average rice output. For autumn grain output, temperature indexes also played an important role in summer and autumn. Moreover, correlation coefficients and p-values for temperature indexes and grain output were weak in summer, but also passed a significance test at the 95% confidence interval. The study helps understand the effect of climate change on grain production, and also provides a scientific foundation and theoretical support for formulating policy and measures on climatic adaptability for agricultural production in eastern China.

2020

10.1016/j.gecco.2019.e00818

Hoeben, Annechien Dirkje; Otto, Ilona M.; Chersich, Matthew F.

Integrating public health in European climate change adaptation policy and planning

CLIMATE POLICY

The study assesses the extent to which public health is integrated into European national and urban climate change adaptation policy and planning. We analyse national adaptation documents from the 27 European Union member states and interview city-level experts (n = 17) on the integration of three categories of adaptation efforts: general efforts to minimize health impacts related to climate change, targeted efforts to enhance resilience in health systems, and supportive efforts to foster the potential of the first two categories. At a national level, general efforts to address vector-borne diseases and heat-related illness are covered comprehensively, whereas efforts addressing several climate-related health risks are neglected (e.g. water-borne diseases, injuries from extreme weather and cardiopulmonary health) or overlooked (e.g. malnutrition and mental health). Targeted efforts to inform policy decisions, such as carrying out research, risk monitoring and assessments, are often described in detail, but efforts to manage day-to-day health care delivery and emergency situations receive little attention. At the urban level, health issues receive less attention in climate adaptation policy and planning. If health topics are included, they are often described as indirect benefits of adaptation efforts in other sectors and not perceived as the priority of the involved authorities. This effectively means that general and targeted efforts are the responsibility of other sectoral departments, while supportive efforts are the responsibility of the national government or external organizations. As a result, at an urban level, climate-related health system adaptation is not a policy aim in its own right, and many potentially high health risks are being ignored. In order for health risks to be better integrated into adaptation policy and planning, it is critical to interconnect national and urban levels, reduce sectoral thinking and welcome external expertize and facilitate large-scale data collection and sharing of health and climate indicators.Key policy insightsWe recommend focussing on cooperatively drafting strategies for integrating health issues into climate policy and planning with stakeholders at the national and urban levels, in different policy sectors and in society.Policy planners can build on the strengths of adaptation documents from other countries or cities and take note of any weaknesses.We advocate to foster co-benefits for health and climate action of various adaptation measures (e.g. by promoting active mobility and urban greenery, health impacts related to heat, (mental and physical) stress and air pollution are reduced).Large-scale data collection and sharing of health and climate indicators should be facilitated to support learning and pro-active decision-making.

2023

10.1080/14693062.2022.2143314

Wang, Yuwei; Zhao, Na

Spatiotemporal Variations of Global Human-Perceived Heatwave Risks and their Driving Factors Based on Machine Learning

REMOTE SENSING

With ongoing global warming, heatwave-related disasters are on the rise, exerting a multifaceted impact on both the natural ecosystem and human society. While temperature has been extensively studied in the effects of extreme heat on human health, humidity has often been ignored. It is crucial to consider the combined influence of temperature and humidity when assessing heatwave risks and safeguarding human well-being. This study, leveraging remote sensing products and reanalysis data, presented the first analysis of the spatiotemporal variations in global human-perceived heatwaves on a seasonal scale from 2000 to 2020, and further employed the Random Forest (RF) regression model to quantitatively assess the explanatory power of seven driving factors. The study found that since the 21st century (1) changes in Heat Index (HI) have varied significantly worldwide, with the majority of regions witnessing an increase, particularly at higher latitudes. The largest HI-increasing area was observed in the second quarter (S2), while the overall HI increase peaked in the third quarter (S3); (2) except for the decreasing area of none-risk regions, the regions under all other risk levels expanded (the proportion of high-risk areas in the world increased from 2.97% to 3.69% in S2, and from 0.04% to 0.35% in the fourth quarter (S4)); (3) aspect demonstrated the greatest explanatory power for the global heatwave distribution (0.69-0.76), followed by land-use coverage (LUCC, 0.48-0.55) and precipitation (0.16-0.43), while the explanatory power of slope and nighttime light (NTL) was rather low; (4) over the years, the explanatory power of each factor for heatwave distribution underwent a minor decrease without significant trend, but exhibited seasonal periodicity. Climatic factors and LUCC were most impactful in the first quarter (S1), while DEM and other human factors dominated in S2; and (5) interaction factors showed no significant trends over the years, but the explanatory power of DEM and slope increased notably when interacting with climate factor, aspect, and LUCC, respectively. The interactions between the aspect and LUCC with precipitation yielded the highest explanatory power (above 0.85) across all interactions. To effectively tackle heatwave risks, it is suggested to concentrate on high-latitude regions, reinforce land use and urban planning with eco-friendly strategies, scrutinize the interplay between precipitation and heatwaves, capitalize on topographic data for devising well-informed prevention measures, and tailor response strategies to accommodate seasonal fluctuations. This study offers valuable insights for enhancing climate change adaptation, disaster prevention, and mitigation strategies, ultimately contributing to the alleviation of extreme heatwaves and risk reduction.

2023

10.3390/rs15143627

Yuan, Yanping; Yu, Xiaoping; Yang, Xiaojiao; Xiao, Yimin; Xiang, Bo; Wang, Yi

Bionic building energy efficiency and bionic green architecture: A review

RENEWABLE & SUSTAINABLE ENERGY REVIEWS

Bionic building energy efficiency and bionic green architecture are important means of ensuring harmony between buildings and the natural environment, maintaining ecological balance, and achieving the sustainable development of buildings. Based on a review of bionic technologies for building functions, structures, and materials, the present study analyzes applications and typical cases of bionic building energy efficiency and bionic green architecture. For example, utilizing the wisdom of nature in buildings, architectural innovations using bionic functions have been created based on the favorable natural ventilation system found in termite mounds. Moreover, passive construction technology using solar energy resources can not only improve the indoor thermal environment but also achieve low energy consumption for buildings. Drawing inspiration from mechanical properties, structural relationships, and the material performance of natural objects, and applying this to a building's structure or shape design, large span structures, such as suspension cable and thin shell structure, which imitate cobwebs and eggshell respectively, have been designed to improve the efficiency of building resources. Using polar bear fur, lotus leaves, and other natural animals and plants as bionic building materials, self-compensation, regulation, and maintenance mechanisms have been achieved on building surfaces, allowing the buildings to actively adapt to their environment, thus reflecting the symbiotic relationship between architecture and the environment, and achieving the green development of buildings with high efficiency and low energy consumption. In addition, based on ecological principles and climate-adaptive design rules, the present study proposes an overall design concept for bionic green architecture and further notes that, in future research, it will be necessary to implement the following: strengthen the integration and optimization of diverse green building technologies; manage the energy efficiency of bionic buildings throughout their life cycles; develop bionic technologies for building functions based on the principle of regional suitability; promote innovative bionic technologies for building structures based on the principle of green ecological coexistence; and strengthen the research, development, and application of bionic building materials that regulate, repair, clean, and protect themselves. In short, the development of bionic building energy efficiency and bionic green architecture should follow and respect natural laws. It is necessary to study the mechanisms used in biological systems, which, combined with modern building technologies, should be employed to support building innovation and to realize the rapid development of building energy efficiency and green buildings.

2017

10.1016/j.rser.2017.03.004

Kuchimanchi, Bhavana Rao; van Paassen, Annemarie; Oosting, Simon J.

Understanding the vulnerability, farming strategies and development pathways of smallholder farming systems in Telangana, India

CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT

Climate change projections for the 21st century indicate an increase in the already high number of food-insecure people in India. While considerable research on vulnerability to climate change exists, research about Indian smallholder farming systems as a whole, encompassing farming strategies and development pathways in this context, is limited. Hence, the current study examines the vulnerability of three smallholder farming systems, namely, (i) crop without livestock (CWL), (ii) crop with small ruminants (CSR), and (iii) crop with dairy (CD), in the context of climate change in Telangana, India. A mixed methods approach was used to conduct the research with a sample size of ten households per farming system. We found that households of different farming systems faced differential vulnerability due to variation in perceptions of climate change exposures, access to livelihood capitals, and the farming strategies they chose. The CWL households were highly vulnerable to increased maximum temperature and erratic rainfall, while households that farmed both crop and livestock were more vulnerable to overall reduction in precipitation. Decision-making related to farming strategies was a complex process involving several factors, of which the availability of livelihood capitals, provided by government programs, was the foremost. Due to this, households of the different farming systems pursued divergent farming strategies, leading to varying types of adaptation and climate change resilience. Among the three farming systems, the households in the CWL system had the least access to all livelihood capitals and showed the highest vulnerability as their farm strategies only helped to cope with immediate needs. The households in the CD system had access to all critical livelihood capitals, which facilitated opting for sustainable farming strategies. However, as these households were highly dependent on scarce ground water resources for production, their strategies helped only short-term adaption. The households in the CSR system, despite having access to limited capitals, adopted long-term adaptation strategies which is attributed to them being a pastoral ethnic group. Lastly, despite the existence of an integrated climate change policy, state-level development programs continue to focus more on agricultural intensification than on climate change adaptation. This stimulates farming strategies that are lucrative in the short term but endanger farming system resilience to climate change in the long term. We therefore recommend policy makers to give high priority to climate smart development in state development programs, and science-based evaluations of these programs to enable proper climate change adaptation in dryland regions that is inclusive of perspectives of different populations.

2021

10.1016/j.crm.2021.100275

Huang, Lei; Zhang, Yongxiang; Chao, Qingchen; Yuan, Jiashuang; Hu, Ting

Suggestions on China's capacity building in response to climate change in the post-Paris era

CHINESE SCIENCE BULLETIN-CHINESE

Climate change presents an important environmental challenge that is being addressed by the global community. The socio-economic efforts to address climate change involve both international and domestic economic transformation, industrial upgrading, infrastructure protection, and disaster prevention and mitigation, amongst other considerations. In particular, capacity-building is a prerequisite for both participating in global climate governance and for targeting domestic response measures. After the Paris Agreement, global climate governance has entered the new so-called post-Paris era. Changes to the United States' global climate policy have exacerbated the complexity of global climate governance, but domestic actions by stakeholders at the national or sub-national level are still striving toward the goals agreed to in the Paris Agreement. In particular, China faces significant challenges in addressing climate change impacts in both global mitigation efforts and domestic adaptation needs. Here, we identify areas shortcoming in capacity building for China that are targeted for improvement in the post-Paris era. Firstly, advances in the basic scientific research capacity of China to study climate change should focus on climate change detection attribution, prediction and impact assessment. One specific approach includes the development of climate system models along with the improvement of the comprehensive climate observation system should be implemented to improve fundamental research on climate related topics. Secondly, it is necessary to further enhance China's climate adaptation capacity, particularly targeting adaptation goals for agriculture and urbanized areas as well as improving risk assessment and management of for already-occurring disasters. Thirdly, the development of a comprehensive understanding and support system for policy makers that can be used to integrate climate change responses into China's international and domestic policies is critical for formulating effective mitigation and adaptation efforts. Fourthly, efforts should also be taken in building and enhancing a clear legal system that addresses emerging challenges in mitigation and adaptation. To address many of the above challenges, improvements and expansions also need to be made to strengthen the national expertise in relevant professional fields of climate change, so as to effectively support the pertinence, specialization, refinement, and aptitude in developing strategies for the many climate change-related challenges facing China. Lastly, enhancements in public outreach, awareness and education on climate change will help the public to consciously practice many of the capacity-building efforts being developed, including adopting the concept of green and low carbon in their daily life.

2020

10.1360/TB-2019-0266

Bustamante, Mercedes M. C.; Silva, Jose Salomao; Scariot, Aldicir; Sampaio, Alexandre Bonesso; Mascia, Daniel Luis; Garcia, Edenise; Sano, Edson; Fernandes, Geraldo Wilson; Durigan, Giselda; Roitman, Iris; Figueiredo, Isabel; Rodrigues, Ricardo Ribeiro; Pillar, Valerio D.; de Oliveira, Alba Orli; Malhado, Ana Claudia; Alencar, Ane; Vendramini, Annelise; Padovezi, Aurelio; Carrascosa, Helena; Freitas, Joberto; Siqueira, Jose Alves; Shimbo, Julia; Generoso, Leonel Graca; Tabarelli, Marcelo; Biderman, Rachel; Salomao, Rafael de Paiva; Valle, Raul; Junior, Brienza; Nobre, Carlos

Ecological restoration as a strategy for mitigating and adapting to climate change: lessons and challenges from Brazil

MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES FOR GLOBAL CHANGE

Climate change is a global phenomenon that affects biophysical systems and human well-being. The Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change entered into force in 2016 with the objective of strengthening the global response to climate change by keeping global temperature rise this century well below 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 degrees C. The agreement requires all Parties to submit their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and to strengthen these efforts in the years ahead. Reducing carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation is an important strategy for mitigating climate change, particularly in developing countries with large forests. Extensive tropical forest loss and degradation have increased awareness at the international level of the need to undertake large-scale ecological restoration, highlighting the need to identify cases in which restoration strategies can contribute to mitigation and adaptation. Here we consider Brazil as a case study to evaluate the benefits and challenges of implementing large-scale restoration programs in developing countries. The Brazilian NDC included the target of restoring and reforesting 12 million hectares of forests for multiple uses by 2030. Restoration of native vegetation is one of the foundations of sustainable rural development in Brazil and should consider multiple purposes, from biodiversity and ecosystem services conservation to social and economic development. However, ecological restoration still presents substantial challenges for tropical and mega-diverse countries, including the need to develop plans that are technically and financially feasible, as well as public policies and monitoring instruments that can assess effectiveness. The planning, execution, and monitoring of restoration efforts strongly depend on the context and the diagnosis of the area with respect to reference ecosystems (e.g., forests, savannas, grasslands, wetlands). In addition, poor integration of climate change policies at the national and subnational levels and with other sectorial policies constrains the large-scale implementation of restoration programs. The case of Brazil shows that slowing deforestation is possible; however, this analysis highlights the need for increased national commitment and international support for actions that require large-scale transformations of the forest sector regarding ecosystem restoration efforts. Scaling up the ambitions and actions of the Paris Agreement implies the need for a global framework that recognizes landscape restoration as a cost-effective nature-based solution and that supports countries in addressing their remaining needs, challenges, and barriers.

2019

10.1007/s11027-018-9837-5

Chagumaira, Christopher; Rurinda, Jairos; Nezomba, Hatirarami; Mtambanengwe, Florence; Mapfumo, Paul

Use patterns of natural resources supporting livelihoods of smallholder communities and implications for climate change adaptation in Zimbabwe

ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY

Declining crop and livestock production due to a degrading land resource base and changing climate among other biophysical and socio-economic constraints, is increasingly forcing rural households in Zimbabwe and other parts of Southern Africa to rely on common natural resource pools (CNRPs) to supplement their household food and income. Between 2011 and 2013, we combined farmer participatory research approaches, remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS) to (1) understand the contribution of CNRPs to household food and income in Dendenyore and Ushe smallholder communities in Hwedza District, eastern Zimbabwe and (2) assess changes of the CNRPs in both space and time, and their implications on climate change adaptation. Across study sites, wetlands and woodlands were ranked as the most important CNRPs. Extraction and use patterns of products from the different pools differed among households of different resource endowment. Resource-constrained households (RG3) sold an average of 183 kg household(-1) year(-1) of wild loquats fruits (Uapaca kirkiana), realising about US$48, while resource-endowed farmers (RG1) had no need to sale any. The RG3 households also realised approximately US$70 household(-1) year(-1) from sale of crafts made from water reeds (Phragmites mauritianus). Empirical data closely supported communities' perceptions that CNRPs had declined significantly in recent years compared with two to three decades ago. More than 60 % of the respondents perceived that the availability of natural resources drawn from wetlands and woodlands, often used for food, energy and crafts, has decreased markedly since the 1980s. Classification of land cover in a GIS environment indicated that CNRPs declined between 1972 and 2011, supporting farmers' perceptions. Overall, woodlands declined by 37 % in both communities, while the total area under wetlands decreased by 29 % in Ushe, a drier area and 49 % in Dendenyore, a relatively humid area. The over-reliance in CNRPs by rural communities could be attributed to continued decline in crop yields linked to increased within-season rainfall variability, and the absence of alternative food and income sources. This suggests limited options for rural communities to adapt to the changing food production systems in the wake of climate change and variability and other challenges such as declining soil fertility. There is therefore a need to design adaptive farm management options that enhance both crop and livestock production in a changing climate as well as identifying other livelihood alternatives outside agriculture to reduce pressure on CNRPs. In addition, promotion of alternative sources of energy such as solar power and biogas among rural communities could reduce the cutting of trees for firewood from woodlands.

2016

10.1007/s10668-015-9637-y

Pasini, S.; Torresan, S.; Rizzi, J.; Zabeo, A.; Critto, A.; Marcomini, A.

Climate change impact assessment in Veneto and Friuli Plain groundwater. Part II: A spatially resolved regional risk assessment

SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT

Climate change impact assessment on water resources has received high international attention over the last two decades, due to the observed global warming and its consequences at the global to local scale. In particular, climate-related risks for groundwater and related ecosystems pose a great concern to scientists and water authorities involved in the protection of these valuable resources. The close link of global warming with water cycle alterations encourages research to deepen current knowledge on relationships between climate trends and status of water systems, and to develop predictive tools for their sustainable management, copying with key principles of EU water policy. Within the European project Life + TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groundwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change), a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was developed in order to identify impacts from climate change on groundwater and associated ecosystems (e.g. surface waters, agricultural areas, natural environments) and to rank areas and receptors at risk in the high and middle Veneto and Friuli Plain (Italy). Based on an integrated analysis of impacts, vulnerability and risks linked to climate change at the regional scale, a RRA framework complying with the Sources-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (SPRC) approach was defined. Relevant impacts on groundwater and surface waters (i.e. groundwater level variations, changes in nitrate infiltration processes, changes in water availability for irrigation) were selected and analyzed through hazard scenario, exposure, susceptibility and risk assessment. The RRA methodology used hazard scenarios constructed through global and high resolution model simulations for the 2071-2100 period, according to IPCC A1B emission scenario in order to produce useful indications for future risk prioritization and to support the addressing of adaptation measures, primarily Managed Artificial Recharge (MAR) techniques. Relevant outcomes from the described RRA application highlighted that potential climate change impacts will occur with different extension and magnitude in the case study area. Particularly, qualitative and quantitative impacts on groundwater will occur with more severe consequences in the wettest and in the driest scenario (respectively). Moreover, such impacts will likely have little direct effects on related ecosystems - croplands, forests and natural environments - lying along the spring area (about 12% of croplands and 2% of natural environments at risk) while more severe consequences will indirectly occur on natural and anthropic systems through the reduction in quality and quantity of water availability for agricultural and other uses (about 80% of agricultural areas and 27% of groundwater bodies at risk).

2012

10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.06.096

Yohannes, Zigiju; Teshome, Menberu; Belay, Mehretie

Adaptive capacity of mountain community to climate change: case study in the Semien Mountains of Ethiopia

ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY

Climate vagary has exposed farming communities in Semien Mountains (North West Ethiopia) to repeated droughts and famines in recent years. Most of the farming communities in this area have failed to produce sufficient food and have become dependent on foreign food donations. Yet, the impact, vulnerability and adaptive capacity of the community to climate change in the above-mentioned mountain areas are not well documented. This paper examined the temporal temperature and rainfall trends, and the communities' vulnerability to climate change as well as their adaptive capacities to the changing climate to fill the existing information gaps regarding issues called forth in the Semien Mountains and other highland environments. Data were gathered using questionnaires, interviews, focus group discussions and field observations. Information from meteorological recordings was also collected for this study. The collected data were analyzed using standardized precipitation index, livelihood vulnerability index, bi-logit model and descriptive statistics. The results confirmed highest climatic variability manifested in rainfall and temperature changes. Rainfall decreased by a total of 573.46 mm (by approximate to 16.38 mm per year on average) from 1979 to 2013. Mean annual temperature increased from 18.54 degrees C in 1979 to 20 degrees C in 2013. In this light, majority of the respondents (85%) reported facing climatic hazards. About 70% of them perceive that climate change has decreased land productivity and numerous others (74%) felt its future implications on farmlands. Recurrent crop and animal diseases were indicated by 95.21 and 93.41% of the sampled households, respectively. These climate change-induced incidents were exacerbated by lower adaptive capacities and limited institutional services. Livestock rearing, livelihood diversification, stone bund building, tree planting, organic fertilizer application, selling home articles, soil bund construction, rainwater harvesting, utilizing synthetic fertilizers and preparing hand-dug wells were important adaptive strategies used and ranked 1-10, respectively, by the studied households. Extension services, family size, farm income, access to training and livestock ownership found influential during the use of composting, terracing and tree planting to reduce the negative impact of climate change. Farmer-to-farmer extension appeared to significantly reduce composting, terrace building and tree planting at p < 0.01 level. This calls for further social and cultural related studies to explore the reasons. Climate change adaptation strategies should thus focus on enhancing households' access to key livelihood assets such as education (training), family size, farm income, extension service, and livestock ownership opportunities.

2020

10.1007/s10668-019-00334-3

Liu Zhenhuan; Yang Peng; Wu Wenbin; You Liangzhi

Spatiotemporal changes of cropping structure in China during 1980-2011

JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES

Understanding the spatial and temporal variations of cropping systems is very important for agricultural policymaking and food security assessment, and can provide a basis for national policies regarding cropping systems adjustment and agricultural adaptation to climate change. With rapid development of society and the economy, China's cropping structure has profoundly changed since the reform and opening up in 1978, but there has been no systematic investigation of the pattern, process and characteristics of these changes. In view of this, a crop area database for China was acquired and compiled at the county level for the period 1980-2011, and linear regression and spatial analysis were employed to investigate the cropping structure type and cropping proportion changes at the national level. This research had three main findings: (1) China's cropping structure has undergone significant changes since 2002; the richness of cropping structure types has increased significantly and a diversified-type structure has gradually replaced the single types. The single-crop types-dominated by rice, wheat or maize-declined, affected by the combination of these three major food crops in mixed plantings and conversion of some of their planting area to other crops. (2) In the top 10 types, 82.7% of the county-level cropping structure was rice, wheat, maize and their combinations in 1980; however, this proportion decreased to 50.7% in 2011, indicating an adjustment period of China's cropping structure. Spatial analysis showed that 63.8% of China's counties adjusted their cropping structure, with the general change toward reducing the main food types and increasing fruits and vegetables during 1980-2011. (3) At the national level, the grain-planting pattern dominated by rice shifted to coexistence of rice, wheat and maize during this period. There were significant decreasing trends for 47% of rice, 61% of wheat and 29.6% of maize cropping counties. The pattern of maize cropping had the most significant change, with the maize proportion decreasing in the zone from northeastern to southwestern China during this period. Cities and their surroundings were hotspots for cropping structural adjustment. Urbanization has significantly changed cropping structure, with most of these regions showing rapid increases in the proportion of fruit and vegetables. Our research suggests that the policy of cropping structural adjustment needs to consider geographical characteristics and spatial planning of cropping systems. In this way, the future direction of cropping structural adjustment will be appropriate and scientifically based, such as where there is a need to maintain or increase rice and wheat cropping, increase soybean and decrease maize, and increase the supply of fruit and vegetables.

2018

10.1007/s11442-018-1535-4

Tachini, Ramiro; Bonnardot, Valerie; Ferrer, Milka; Fourment, Mercedes

Topography interactions with the Atlantic Ocean and its impact on Vitis vinifera L. 'Tannat'.

VITIS

Climate is one of the main factors conditioning the chemical composition of grapes and wine. At a vineyard scale, during the growing season, topography can explain spatial temperature variability. Furthermore, each topographical factor (altitude, slope, exposure) may have a different impact on grapevine pro-duction, even in low altitude terrains. This work aims to evaluate the mesoclimate of Uruguay's Atlantic region and determine the topography and ocean's effect on temperature and, thus on the response of the 'Tannat' grapevine. Data from 19 temperature sensors, installed in a coastal vineyard under contrasted topog-raphy conditions, were used over three growing seasons in order to study the relationships between bioclimatic indicators of dif-ferent sites and the plant response of nine 'Tannat' plots under similar agronomical management and soil type. Mesoclimate, especially due to altitude and exposition to the ocean winds, mostly explained 'Tannat' variability. Significant differences in ex-treme temperatures (minimum and maximum) were observed: The plots at higher altitudes (118-140 m a.s.l.) exposed to oce-anic winds had a lower daytime temperature than the plot shel-tered at lower altitude (70-94 m a.s.l.). The average difference was 0.9 degrees C during the hottest summer, reaching 1,7 degrees C between the most contrasted sites. In particular, the local sea breeze cir-culation during heat waves of the ripening period, prevent ex-treme high temperatures in sites facing the ocean. Temperature drop of 4.3 degrees C in upwind sites was noticed, against 0.9 degrees C in shel-tered plots. The plots at lower altitude presented a nighttime temperature lower than plots at higher altitude (up to 1.0 degrees C low-er, on average, during ripening), thus resulting in greater diurnal thermal amplitude (1.5 degrees C greater). A direct association between altitude, mesoscale temperature and 'Tannat' grape metabolites was observed for three consecutive years: plots at higher alti-tude recorded significative greater malic acid (+1.7 g L-1), while plots at lower altitude recorded greater anthocyanin potential (ApH1) (+1920 mg L-1). Other variables such as soluble solids, total titratable acidity, pH and polyphenols were differentiated at least over one growing season. No significant differences agronomic response parameters such as yield, pruning weight and Ravaz Index were observed. Topographic differences less than 70 m a.s.l. but enhanced by the Atlantic Ocean influence, made it possible to differentiate plots with equal vine respons- es. Seasonal and spatial climatic characterization of the region fine scale along with grapevine response will allow to optimize agronomic decisions especially in search of fresh terroirs where the vines can adapt to climate change.

2023

10.5073/vitis.2023.62.163-177

Kumar, Pankaj; Dasgupta, Rajarshi; Dhyani, Shalini; Kadaverugu, Rakesh; Johnson, Brian Alan; Hashimoto, Shizuka; Sahu, Netrananda; Avtar, Ram; Saito, Osamu; Chakraborty, Shamik; Mishra, Binaya Kumar

Scenario-Based Hydrological Modeling for Designing Climate-Resilient Coastal Water Resource Management Measures: Lessons from Brahmani River, Odisha, Eastern India

SUSTAINABILITY

Widespread urban expansion around the world, combined with rapid demographic and climatic changes, has resulted in serious pollution issues in many coastal water bodies. To help formulate coastal management strategies to mitigate the impacts of these extreme changes (e.g., local land-use or climate change adaptation policies), research methodologies that incorporate participatory approaches alongside with computer simulation modeling tools have potential to be particularly effective. One such research methodology, called the Participatory Coastal Land-Use Management (PCLM) approach, consists of three major steps: (a) participatory approach to find key drivers responsible for the water quality deterioration, (b) scenario analysis using different computer simulation modeling tools for impact assessment, and (c) using these scientific evidences for developing adaptation and mitigation measures. In this study, we have applied PCLM approach in the Kendrapara district of India (focusing on the Brahmani River basin), a rapidly urbanizing area on the country's east coast to evaluate current status and predict its future conditions. The participatory approach involved key informant interviews to determine key drivers of water quality degradation, which served as an input for scenario analysis and hydrological simulation in the next step. Future river water quality (BOD and Total coliform (Tot. coli) as important parameters) was simulated using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) tool, considering a different plausible future scenario (to 2050) incorporating diverse drivers and pressures (i.e., population growth, land-use change, and climate change). Water samples (collected in 2018) indicated that the Brahmani River in this district was already moderately-to-extremely polluted in comparison to the desirable water quality (Class B), and modeling results indicated that the river water quality is likely to further deteriorate by 2050 under all of the considered scenarios. Demographic changes emerged as the major driver affecting the future water quality deterioration (68% and 69% for BOD and Tot. coli respectively), whereas climate change had the lowest impact on river water quality (12% and 13% for BOD and Tot. coli respectively), although the impact was not negligible. Scientific evidence to understand the impacts of future changes can help in developing diverse plausible coastal zone management approaches for ensuring sustainable management of water resources in the region. The PCLM approach, by having active stakeholder involvement, can help in co-generation of the coastal management options followed by open access free software, and models can play a relevant cost-effective approach to enhance science-policy interface for conservation of natural resources.

2021

10.3390/su13116339

Soussana, Jean-Francois; Lutfalla, Suzanne; Ehrhardt, Fiona; Rosenstock, Todd; Lamanna, Christine; Havlik, Petr; Richards, Meryl; Wollenberg, Eva (Lini); Chotte, Jean-Luc; Torquebiau, Emmanuel; Ciais, Philippe; Smith, Pete; Lal, Rattan

Matching policy and science: Rationale for the '4 per 1000-soils for food security and climate' initiative

SOIL & TILLAGE RESEARCH

At the 21st session of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC, COP21), a voluntary action plan, the '4 per 1000 Initiative: Soils for Food Security and Climate' was proposed under the Agenda for Action. The Initiative underlines the role of soil organic matter (SOM) in addressing the three-fold challenge of food and nutritional security, adaptation to climate change and mitigation of human-induced greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions. It sets an ambitious aspirational target of a 4 per 1000 (i.e. 0.4%) rate of annual increase in global soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks, with a focus on agricultural lands where farmers would ensure the carbon stewardship of soils, like they manage day-to-day multipurpose production systems in a changing environment. In this paper, the opportunities and challenges for the 4 per 1000 initiative are discussed. We show that the 4 per 1000 target, calculated relative to global top soil SOC stocks, is consistent with literature estimates of the technical potential for SOC sequestration, though the achievable potential is likely to be substantially lower given socio-economic constraints. We calculate that land-based negative emissions from additional SOC sequestration could significantly contribute to reducing the anthropogenic CO2 equivalent emission gap identified from Nationally Determined Contributions pledged by countries to stabilize global warming levels below 2 degrees C or even 1.5 degrees C under the Paris agreement on climate. The 4 per 1000 target could be implemented by taking into account differentiated SOC stock baselines, reversing the current trend of huge soil CO2 losses, e.g. from agriculture encroaching peatland soils. We further discuss the potential benefits of SOC stewardship for both degraded and healthy soils along contrasting spatial scales (field, farm, landscape and country) and temporal (year to century) horizons. Last, we present some of the implications relative to non-CO2 GHGs emissions, water and nutrients use as well as co-benefits for crop yields and climate change adaptation. We underline the considerable challenges associated with the non-permanence of SOC stocks and show how the rates of adoption and the duration of improved soil management practices could alter the global impacts of practices under the 4 per 1000 initiative. We conclude that the 4 per 1000 initiative has potential to support multiple sustainable development goals (SDGs) of the 2030 Agenda. It can be regarded as no-regret since increasing SOC in agricultural soils will contribute to food security benefits that will enhance resilience to climate change. However, social, economic and environmental safeguards will be needed to ensure an equitable and sustainable implementation of the 4 per 1000 target.

2019

10.1016/j.still.2017.12.002

Li, Chuanxi; Wang, Zhendong; Yan, Yu; Qu, Yinan; Hou, Liangyu; Li, Yijie; Chu, Cordia; Woodward, Alistair; Schikowski, Tamara; Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento; Liu, Qiyong; Zhao, Qi; Ma, Wei

Association Between Hydrological Conditions and Dengue Fever Incidence in Coastal Southeastern China From 2013 to 2019

JAMA NETWORK OPEN

IMPORTANCE Dengue fever is a climate-sensitive infectious disease. However, its association with local hydrological conditions and the role of city development remain unclear. OBJECTIVE To quantify the association between hydrological conditions and dengue fever incidence in China and to explore the modification role of city development in this association. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This cross-sectional study collected data between January 1, 2013, and December 31, 2019, from 54 cities in 4 coastal provinces in southeast China. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was calculated from ambient temperature and precipitation, with SPEI thresholds of 2 for extreme wet conditions and -2 for extreme dry conditions. The SPEI-dengue fever incidence association was examined over a 6-month lag, and the modification roles of 5 city development dimensions were assessed. Data were analyzed in May 2022. EXPOSURES City-level monthly temperature, precipitation, SPEI, and annual city development indicators from 2013 to 2019. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome was city-level monthly dengue fever incidence. Spatiotemporal bayesian hierarchal models were used to examine the SPEI-dengue fever incidence association over a 6-month lag period. An interaction term between SPEI and each city development indicator was added into the model to assess the modification role of city development. RESULTS Included in the analysis were 70 006 dengue fever cases reported in 54 cities in 4 provinces in China from 2013 to 2019. Overall, a U-shaped cumulative curve was observed, with wet and dry conditions both associated with increased dengue fever risk. The relative risk [RR] peaked at a 1-month lag for extreme wet conditions (1.27; 95% credible interval [CrI], 1.05-1.53) and at a 6-month lag for extreme dry conditions (1.63; 95% CrI, 1.29-2.05). The RRs of extreme wet and dry conditions were greater in areas with limited economic development, health care resources, and income per capita. Extreme dry conditions were higher and prolonged in areas with more green space per capita (RR, 1.84; 95% CrI, 1.37-2.46). Highly urbanized areas had a higher risk of dengue fever after extreme wet conditions (RR, 1.80; 95% CrI, 1.26-2.56), while less urbanized areas had the highest risk of dengue fever in extreme dry conditions (RR, 1.70; 95% CrI, 1.11-2.60). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Results of this study showed that extreme hydrological conditions were associated with increased dengue fever incidence within a 6-month lag period, with different dimensions of city development playing various modification roles in this association. These findings may help in developing climate change adaptation strategies and public health interventions against dengue fever.

2023

10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.49440

Thornton, Philip K.; Jones, Peter G.; Alagarswamy, Gopal; Andresen, Jeff; Herrero, Mario

Adapting to climate change: Agricultural system and household impacts in East Africa

AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS

The East African region exhibits considerable climatic and topographic variability. Much spatial and temporal variation in the response of different crops to climate change can thus be anticipated. In previous work we showed that a large part of this variation can be explained in terms of temperature and, to a lesser extent, water effects. Here, we summarise simulated yield response in two crops that are widely grown in the region, maize and beans, and investigate how the impacts of climate change might be addressed at two levels: the agricultural system and the household. Regionally, there are substantial between-country and within-system differences in maize and bean production responses projected to 2050. The arid-semiarid mixed crop-livestock systems are projected to see reductions in maize and bean production throughout most of the region to 2050. Yields of these crops in the tropical highland mixed systems are projected to increase, sometimes substantially. The humid-subhumid mixed systems show more varied yield responses through time and across space. Some within-country shifts in cropping away from the arid-semiarid systems to cooler, higher-elevation locations may be possible, but increased regional trade should be able to overcome the country-level production deficits in maize and beans caused by climate change to 2050, all other things being equal. For some places in the tropical highlands, maize and bean yield increases could have beneficial effects on household food security and income levels. In the other mixed systems, moderate yield losses can be expected to be offset by crop breeding and agronomic approaches in the coming decades, while more severe yield losses may necessitate changes in crop types, movement to more livestock-orientated production, or abandonment of cropping altogether. These production responses are indicative only, and their effects will be under-estimated because the methods used here have not accounted for increasing weather variability in the future or changes in the distribution and impacts of biotic and other abiotic stresses. These system-level shifts will take place in a context characterised by high population growth rates; the demand for food is projected to nearly triple by the middle of this century. Systems will have to intensify substantially in response, particularly in the better-endowed mixed systems in the region. For the more marginal areas, the variability in yield response, and the variability in households' ability to adapt, suggest that, even given the limitations of this analysis, adaptation options need to be assessed at the level of the household and the local community, if research for development is to meet its poverty alleviation and food security targets in the face of global change.

2010

10.1016/j.agsy.2009.09.003

He, Qinsi; Liu, De Li; Wang, Bin; Li, Linchao; Cowie, Annette; Simmons, Aaron; Zhou, Hongxu; Tian, Qi; Li, Sien; Li, Yi; Liu, Ke; Yan, Haoliang; Harrison, Matthew Tom; Feng, Puyu; Waters, Cathy; Li, Guangdi D.; de Voil, Peter; Yu, Qiang

Identifying effective agricultural management practices for climate change adaptation and mitigation: A win-win strategy in South-Eastern Australia

AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS

CONTEXT: Farming systems face dual pressures of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to mitigate climate change and safeguarding food security to adapt to climate change. Building soil organic carbon (SOC) is proposed as a key strategy for climate change mitigation and adaptation. However, practices that increase SOC may also increase nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions, and impact crop yields and on-farm income. A comprehensive assessment of the effects of different management practices on trade-offs between GHG emissions and agricultural systems profitability under climate change is needed. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to: (1) analyze the long-term trends of SOC and N2O emissions, and ascertain whether the croplands of the study region are net GHG sources or sinks under climate change; (2) quantify the GHG abatement on a gross margin basis; (3) identify effective management practices that could achieve a win-win strategy; and (4) investigate sources of uncertainty in estimates of GHG emissions and gross margins under climate change. METHODS: APSIM was used to simulate the effects of three crop residue retention rates (10%, 50% and 100%), and six representative crop rotations (wheat-canola, wheat-field pea-wheat-canola, wheat-field pea-wheat-oats, wheat-wheat-barley, wheat-wheat-canola, and wheat-wheat-oats) under two Shared Socio-economic Pathways scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585) using climate projections from 27 GCMs. GHG emissions and gross margins from 1961 to 2092 were assessed across 204 study sites in southeastern Australia. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Our results showed that residue retention can turn the soil from a carbon source (10% retention, 304-450 kg CO2-eq ha(-1) yr(-1)) to a carbon sink (100% retention,-269 similar to-57 kg CO2-eq ha(-1) yr(-1)), and the potential of carbon sequestration was partly offset by concomitantly increased N2O emissions. The wheat-wheat-canola rotation with full residue retention was shown to be a win-win solution with both large potential of GHG abatement and high gross margin compared with other rotations. Spatial analysis showed that the southeastern part of the study region, with higher rainfall, had higher gross margins, while the drier northwestern part had greater GHG emission reduction potentials. Although climate change led to increased GHG emissions and decreased yields for some crops, these adverse effects were overweighed by the higher SOC and yield advantages from full residue retention. SIGNIFICANCE: This study emphasizes the significant potential for agronomic management to maximize gross margin and reduce GHG emissions under climate change in southeast Australia. Results from this study could be used by farmers and policymakers to mitigate climate change without compromising agroecosystem profitability.

2022

10.1016/j.agsy.2022.103527

Getachew, Fikadu; Bayabil, Haimanote K.; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Teshome, Fitsum T.; Zewdu, Eshetu

Irrigation and shifting planting date as climate change adaptation strategies for sorghum

AGRICULTURAL WATER MANAGEMENT

Climate change is projected to have a global impact that affect food production and security. The objectives of this study were to determine the potential impact of climate change on sorghum yield for rainfed production systems and to evaluate the potential of irrigation and shifting planting dates as adaptation options for two major sorghum production regions in Ethiopia. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) Cropping System Model (CSM)-CERES-Sorghum model was used to simulate the impact of climate change on sorghum yield for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs; RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and for three future periods including the 2025s (2010-2039), 2055s (2040-2069), and 2085s (2070-2099). The Agricultural Model Improvement and Inter-comparison Project (AgMIP) framework was used to select five representative GCMs for hot/dry, cool/dry, middle, hot/wet, and cool/wet climate scenarios. Two climate change adaptation practices including supplemental irrigation at two levels (deficit and full) to the current rainfed production system and shifting planting dates were evaluated. The CSM-CERES-Sorghum model was calibrated and evaluated using eight years of experimental data from Meisso, eastern Ethiopia. The model was then run for Kobo and Meisso under different climate change and crop management scenarios. Based on model evaluation results, the model performed well for simulating sorghum yield (R-2 = 0.99), anthesis (R-2 = 0.86, RMSE = 1.3), and maturity (R-2 = 0.79, RMSE = 4.4). The results showed that the average temperature for Kobo and Meisso is expected to increase by up to 6.C under RCP8.5 in 2085. For the rainfed production systems without adaptation practices, drought stress is projected to intensify during anthesis, which was reflected by projected yield reductions by up 2 t ha(-1) for the two sites. Full irrigation was effective in reducing moisture stress and, thereby, increasing sorghum yield by up to 3 t ha(-1) for Kobo and 2 t ha(-1) for Meisso. On average, full irrigation resulted in a 1 t ha(-1) yield increase compared with deficit irrigation. Early planting dates also resulted in an increase in yield compared to the baseline planting dates, especially when combined with supplemental irrigation, although late planting was consistently disadvantageous even with supplemental irrigation. This study highlighted that the CSM-CERES-Sorghum model can be effectively used to simulate climate change effects on sorghum yield and evaluate different climate change adaptation practices. The outcomes of this study can also help to implement management decisions towards climate change adaptation for the current subsistence and fragile rainfed crop production system in Ethiopia and similar ecoregions across the globe.

2021

10.1016/j.agwat.2021.106988

Kruger, Andries C.; Rautenbach, Hannes; Mbatha, Sifiso; Ngwenya, Sandile; Makgoale, Thabo E.

Historical and projected trends in near-surface temperature indices for 22 locations in South Africa

SOUTH AFRICAN JOURNAL OF SCIENCE

Motivated by the risks posed by global warming, historical trends and future projections of near-surface temperature in South Africa have been investigated in a number of previous studies. These studies included the assessment of trends in average temperatures as well as extremes. In this study, historical trends in near-surface minimum and maximum temperatures as well as extreme temperature indices in South Africa were critically investigated by comparing quality-controlled station observations with downscaled model projections. Because climate models are the only means of generating future global warming projections, this critical point comparison between observed and downscaled model simulated time series can provide valuable information regarding the interpretation of model-generated projections. Over the historical 1951-2005 period, both observed data and downscaled model projections were compared at 22 point locations in South Africa. An analysis of model projection trends was conducted over the period 2006-2095. The results from the historical analysis show that model outputs tend to simulate the historical trends well for annual means of daily maximum and minimum temperatures. However, noteworthy discrepancies exist in the assessment of temperature extremes. While both the historical model simulations and observations show a general warming trend in the extreme indices, the observational data show appreciably more spatial and temporal variability. On the other hand, model projections for the period 2006-2095 show that for the medium-to-low concentration Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5, the projected decrease in cold nights is not as strong as is the case for the historically observed trends. However, the upward trends in warm nights for both the RCP4.5 and the high concentration RCP8.5 pathways are noticeably stronger than the historically observed trends. For cool days, future projections are comparable to the historically observed trends, but for hot days noticeably higher. Decreases in cold spells and increases in warm spells are expected to continue in future, with relatively strong positive trends on a regional basis. It is shown that projected trends are not expected to be constant into the future, in particular trends generated from the RCP8.5 pathway that show a strong increase in warming towards the end of the projection period. Significance: Comparison between the observed and simulated trends emphasises the necessity to assess the reliability of the output of climate models which have a bearing on the credibility of projections. The limitation of the models to adequately simulate the climate extremes, renders the projections conservative, which is an important result in the light of climate change adaptation.

2019

10.17159/sajs.2019/4846

Quarshie, Philip Tetteh; Abdulai, Abdul-Rahim; Duncan, Emily; Bahadur, K. C. Krishna; Roth, Robin; Sneyd, Adam; Fraser, Evan D. G.

Myth or reality? The Digitalization of Climate-Smart Agriculture (DCSA) practices in smallholding agriculture in the Bono East Region of Ghana

CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT

Digitalization of Climate-Smart Agriculture practices leverages the power of digital agriculture tools/services (DATs) of any form (hardware, software, or data) in Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) practices to promote enhanced adaptation, GHGs emissions mitigation and increase productivity for smallholding agriculture. This research used a mixture of participatory and learning approaches with an emphasis on Expert Interviews and a Large-scale Household Survey involving 1219 farmers in the Bono East of Ghana to assess the awareness and utilization of DATs in smallholder farmers' CSA practices. Precisely, we assess farmers' engagement with Digital Agriculture Services (DAS) and DAT such as; TVs, Radios, Mobile phones/Tablets, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV)/Drones, Soil Sensor, Moisture Meters, Rain Gauges, Farm Management Software, Smartphone Applications, and Field Thermometers. The research suggests that the ubiquity of TVs, Radios, and feature phones in rural communities makes these tools the most used devices in farmers' climate-smart practices. However, the level of awareness, availability, accessibility, and utilization of complex tools such as UAVs and simpler tools such as soil sensors, moisture meters, field thermometers, rain gauges, smartphone applications (Facebook, WhatsApp, Twitter, etc.), and farm management software is minimal among rural farmers. The DAS facilitating farmers' climate-smart practices is limited to Digital Agroadvisory Purposes (digital extension), Agri-Digital Finance, and Digital Procurement services, while engagement with other DAS, such as Agri E-Commerce which facilitates most CSA Institution/Market Smart practice, is non-existing in rural communities. In addition, the Digitalization of Climate-Smart Agriculture, in its present form, is only limited to a few CSA practices and DATs engagement among smallholders owing to unmet training and information needs for most Climate-Smart Agriculture practices and interventions. Challenges such as DATs' unavailability, inaccessibility, high cost, high (digital)illiteracy, and inadequate extension support for the digitalization of CSA practices limit uptake. The study proposes increased capacity building for smallholders on CSA practice and interventions. Likewise, a strong public-private partnership across multiple scales is needed to stimulate needed investment to enhance farmers' access to affordable, easy-to-use, and tailor-made DATs while recognizing the power dependence and inequalities these digital tools may unleash in rural communities. Finally, increasing sensitization on DAT's use and benefits in rural communities and the larger population is critical to enhancing the widespread Digitalization of Climate-Smart Agriculture practices in smallholding agriculture.

2023

10.1016/j.crm.2023.100553

Budziak, Olha; Budziak, Vasyl; Drebot, Oksana

CLIMATE-ORIENTED LAND USE MANAGEMENT

AGRICULTURAL AND RESOURCE ECONOMICS-INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC E-JOURNAL

Purpose. The purpose of the article is to investigate the interaction of climate change with land use to properly understand the consequences and make management decisions, taking into account all the risks and opportunities to ensure non-extensive use and long-term conservation of land resources for future generations. Methodology / approach. The methodological approach involves studying the practice of land use management by analyzing integrated indicators: vulnerability of land use to climate change (responding for climate change prevention) and assessing the impact of climate change on land use (adaptation to climate change) the basis for the calculation of which were quantitative and qualitative indicators for the period 2000-2020. Results. It is established that the existing land management system in Ukraine in accordance with the policy of international organizations and the Sustainable Development Agenda until 2030 requires consideration of new technologies and practices in combating climate change and its consequences based on national conditions and priorities. Studies of the effectiveness of management measures in the field of land use showed that in the period 2000-2009, responding measures for climate change prevention were mostly targeted, and in 2010-2020 acquired signs of systemicity, while for the entire study period the effectiveness of adaptation measures underwent minor changes. At the same time, having positive dynamics, but different trends in the period from 2012 to 2014, measures to respond and adapt to climate challenges equalized in effectiveness. It is found that after 2014, more efforts, financial resources and means have begun to be spent on combating the consequences than on measures to adapt to climate change. This means that the current land management system needs immediate transformation. After all, it is impossible to allow any extreme phenomena to jeopardize the food security of the state. The effectiveness of management activities should be not only in a timely response, but first of all in trying to be proactive reducing vulnerability and increasing the resilience of land use to climate change. Originality / scientific novelty. This is the first comparative analysis of the effectiveness of land management measures regarding the interaction of climate change with land use according to indicators in dynamics. The need to increase the adaptive capacity to reduce potential losses in land use in the future is substantiated. Practical value / implications. The results of the study can serve as a basis for modernization of existing land use projects and improvement of ways to manage them on the basis of low-carbon development to ensure food security of the population of Ukraine in the context of climate change.

2022

10.51599/are.2022.08.03.06

Lagmay, Mahar; Alan Racoma, Bernard

Lessons from tropical storms Urduja and Vinta disasters in the Philippines

DISASTER PREVENTION AND MANAGEMENT

Purpose Tropical storms Urduja and Vinta battered the Philippines in December 2017. Despite advances in disaster risk reduction efforts of the country, the twin December storms caused numerous deaths in the Visayas and Mindanao regions. Analysis of these events shows that alerts raised during the Pre-Disaster Risk Assessment (PDRA) for both storms were largely ineffective because they were too broad and general calling for forced evacuations in too many provinces. Repeated multiple and general warnings that usually do not end up in floods or landslides, desensitize people and result in the cry-wolf effect where communities do not respond with urgency when needed. It was unlike the previous execution of PDRA from 2014 to early 2017 by the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), which averted mass loss of lives in many severely impacted areas because of hazard-specific, area-focused and time-bound warnings. PDRA must reinstate specific calls, where mayors of communities are informed by phone hours in advance of imminent danger to prompt and ensure immediate action. Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction information using probabilistic (multi-scenario) hazard maps is also necessary for an effective early warning system to elicit appropriate response from the community. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach Methods of early warning through the PDRA of the National Disaster Mitigation and Management Council (NDRRMC) of the Philippines during tropical storm Urduja and Typhoon Vinta were assessed in this study and compared to the previous PDRA system from 2014 to early 2017. Findings It was found out that the numerous casualties were due to inadequate warning issued during the approach of the tropical cyclones. During an impending hazard, warnings must be accurate, reliable, understandable and timely. Despite the availability of maps that identified safe zones for different communities, warnings raised during the PDRA for both tropical cyclones were deemed too general calling for evacuations of whole provinces. As such, not all communities were evacuated in a timely manner because of failure in the key elements of an effective early warning system. Originality/value To avoid future disasters from happening, it is recommended that the PDRA reinstate its hazards-specific, area-focused and time-bound warnings. Similarly, to increase the resilience of communities, more work on mainstreaming of Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk and Vulnerability Reduction systems for communities must be done as well. Learning from the lessons of these previous disasters will enable communities, their leaders and every stakeholder, not to repeat the same mistakes in the future.

2019

10.1108/DPM-03-2018-0077