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Nishijima, Shigehiro; Eckroad, Steven; Marian, Adela; Choi, Kyeongdal; Kim, Woo Seok; Terai, Motoaki; Deng, Zigang; Zheng, Jun; Wang, Jiasu; Umemoto, Katsuya; Du, Jia; Febvre, Pascal; Keenan, Shane; Mukhanov, Oleg; Cooley, Lance D.; Foley, Cathy P.; Hassenzahl, William V.; Izumi, Mitsuru

Superconductivity and the environment: a Roadmap

SUPERCONDUCTOR SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

There is universal agreement between the United Nations and governments from the richest to the poorest nations that humanity faces unprecedented global challenges relating to sustainable energy, clean water, low-emission transportation, coping with climate change and natural disasters, and reclaiming use of land. We have invited researchers from a range of eclectic research areas to provide a Roadmap of how superconducting technologies could address these major challenges confronting humanity. Superconductivity has, over the century since its discovery by Kamerlingh Onnes in 1911, promised to provide solutions to many challenges. So far, most superconducting technologies are esoteric systems that are used in laboratories and hospitals. Large science projects have long appreciated the ability of superconductivity to efficiently create high magnetic fields that are otherwise very costly to achieve with ordinary materials. The most successful applications outside of large science are high-field magnets for magnetic resonance imaging, laboratory magnetometers for mineral and materials characterization, filters for mobile communications, and magnetoencephalography for understanding the human brain. The stage is now set for superconductivity to make more general contributions. Humanity uses practically unthinkable amounts of energy to drive our modern way of life. Overall, global power usage has been predicted to almost double from 16.5 to 30 TW in the next four decades (2011 Equinox Summit: Energy 2030 http://wgsi.org/publications-resources). The economy with which electrons carry energy compels the continued quest for efficient superconducting power generation, energy storage, and power transmission. The growing global population requires new arable land and treatment of water, especially in remote areas, and superconductivity offers unique solutions to these problems. Exquisite detectors give warning of changes that are otherwise invisible. Prediction of climate and disasters will be helped by future supercomputer technologies that support huge amounts of data and sophisticated modeling, and with the aid of superconductivity these systems might not require the energy of a large city. We present different sections on applications that could address (or are addressing) a range of environmental issues. The Roadmap covers water purification, power distribution and storage, low-environmental impact transport, environmental sensing (particularly for the removal of unexploded munitions), monitoring the Earth's magnetic fields for earthquakes and major solar activity, and, finally, developing a petaflop supercomputer that only requires 3% of the current supercomputer power provision while being 50 times faster. Access to fresh water. With only 2.5% of the water on Earth being fresh and climate change modeling forecasting that many areas will become drier, the ability to recycle water and achieve compact water recycling systems for sewage or ground water treatment is critical. The first section (by Nishijima) points to the potential of superconducting magnetic separation to enable water recycling and reuse. Energy. The Equinox Summit held in Waterloo Canada 2011 (2011 Equinox Summit: Energy 2030 http://wgsi.org/publications-resources) identified electricity use as humanity's largest contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. Our appetite for electricity is growing faster than for any other form of energy. The communique from the summit said 'Transforming the ways we generate, distribute and store electricity is among the most pressing challenges facing society today .... If we want to stabilize CO2 levels in our atmosphere at 550 parts per million, all of that growth needs to be met by non-carbon forms of energy' (2011 Equinox Summit: Energy 2030 http://wgsi.org/publications-resources). Superconducting technologies can provide the energy efficiencies to achieve, in the European Union alone, 33-65% of the required reduction in greenhouse gas emissions according to the Kyoto Protocol (Hartikainen et al 2003 Supercond. Sci. Technol. 16 963). New technologies would include superconducting energy storage systems to effectively store power generation from renewable sources as well as high-temperature superconducting systems used in generators, transformers and synchronous motors in power stations and heavy-industry facilities. However, to be effective, these systems must be superior to conventional systems and, in reality, market penetration will occur as existing electrical machinery is written off. At current write-off rates, to achieve a 50% transfer to superconducting systems will take 20 years (Hartikainen et al 2003 Supercond. Sci. Technol. 16 963). The Roadmap next considers dc transmission of green power with a section by Eckroad and Marian who provide an update on the development of superconducting power transmission lines in view of recent sustainability studies. The potential of magnetic energy storage is then presented by Coi and Kim, who argue that a successful transition to wind and solar power generation must be harmonized with the conventional electrical network, which requires a storage technology with a fast response and long backup times. Transport. Superconducting Maglev trains and motors for international shipping have the potential to considerably reduce the emissions that contribute to greenhouse gases while improving their economic viability by reducing losses and improving efficiencies. International shipping, alone, contributes 3% of the greenhouse gas emissions. Three sections of the Roadmap identify how high-speed rail can be a major solution to providing fast, low energy, environmentally-friendly transport enabling reduction in automobile and aircraft travel by offering an alternative that is very competitive. With maritime international environmental regulations tightening, HTS motors with the characteristics of high torque and compactness will become important devices for high-performance and low-emission electric ship propulsion systems. A section on the development of a megawatt-class superconducting motor for ship propulsion is presented by Umemoto. Monitoring in manufacturing for waste reduction. Environmental impact from the waste created by the manufacturing sector and the need to make manufacturing efficient can be addressed by terahertz imaging. This technology has great potential in non-destructive testing, industrial process monitoring and control to greatly improve the industry process efficiency and reliability by reducing waste materials and toxic by-products. The section by Du shows how terahertz imaging can provide process and property information such as rust levels under paint that can assist with the reduction of waste in manufacturing and maintenance. Monitoring for naturally occurring disturbances. The environmental and social impact of natural disasters is mounting. Febvre provides the Roadmap for the use of ultra-sensitive magnetometry to understand geomagnetic phenomena and Earth-ionosphere couplings through the study of very small variations of the magnetic field. This magnetic monitoring has many implications for understanding our environment and providing new tools for early warning of natural hazards, either on Earth or in space which will enable us to be better prepared for natural disasters. Restoring environments after military use. Throughout the world, there are many areas confirmed or suspected of being contaminated by unexploded munitions known as unexploded ordnance (UXO). Its presence is the result of wars and training of military forces. Areas affected by UXO contamination are hazardous to the public and have a major influence on the nature of land use. UXO has impact in developed as well as developing nations. For example, the USA has UXO dating back to the American Civil War and countries such as Cambodia are living with landmines as a daily issue due to more recent wars. Underwater UXO has caused severe impacts such as the explosion in 1969 in the waters of Kent in the UK that caused a reading of 4.5 on the Richter scale for earthquake monitors. Another example was a land-based detonation of a 500 kg World War II bomb in Germany killing three people in 2010. There is countless UXO from recent conflicts worldwide. Detection and accurate location with 100% reliability is required to return land to safe civilian use. Keenan provides details of a prototype magnetic gradiometer developed for this purpose. Reducing power needs for high-end IT. Supercomputers are so large that they are close to requiring their own small power plant to support the energy needed to run the computer. For example, in 2011 Facebook data centers and operations used 532 million kW hours of energy. Mukhanov explores the potential of reducing the power dissipation for future supercomputers from more than 500 MW for Exascale systems to 0.2 MW by using superconducting-ferromagnetic Josephson junctions for magnetic memory and programmable logic. Clearly superconductivity is an ultimate energy-saving technology, and its practical implementation will contribute to the reduction of CO2 emissions, improved water purification, reduction of waste and timely preparedness for natural disasters or significant events. This Roadmap shows how the application of superconducting technologies will have a significant impact when they are adopted.

2013

10.1088/0953-2048/26/11/113001

Khiyat, Ziad

Groundwater in the Arab region: making the invisible visible

DESALINATION AND WATER TREATMENT

The Arab region is one of the most water scarce regions in the world with 19 states below the water scarcity threshold including 13 states below the absolute water scarcity. Groundwater is heavily relied upon and it is the primary source of freshwater in more than 11 Arab States, yet the invisible and complex character of groundwater being underground and out of sight has not given it the due attention it deserves. Hence, this report explores the importance of groundwater and the challenges it is facing, with the aim of bolstering its status to a strategic resource for the Arab region. Amid the water scarcity situation, limited renewable groundwater resources continue to be exploited at an unsustainable rate, exceeding the natural recharge rates. Excessive use of groundwater, especially by the agricultural sector combined with low efficiency, has led to the decline in groundwater storage in more than two thirds of the Arab region, where the area of decline has doubled in 2018-2019 compared to 2002. In some countries over 88% of all irrigation water comes from groundwater compared to a global average of just over 37%. Moreover, it is projected that by 2050, available groundwater per capita will have decreased by more than half since the beginning of the century and 17 Arab States, accounting for 79% of the total population, will be below the absolute water scarcity threshold. In addition to their excessive use, groundwater resources are also threatened by anthropo-genic pollution sources, from agricultural and industrial practices and from sea water intrusion in coastal cities. The deterioration in the quality of groundwater resources, both due to overexploita-tion and pollution is aggravating the problem of water scarcity. For example, in Beirut, seawater intrusion has shifted inland between 500 and 1,200 m from 1970 reference point. In Gaza, only 25% of wastewater is treated due the lack of proper wastewater collection and treatment infrastructure, which is further complicated by the occupation that has restricted access to natural resources. This is alarming knowing that groundwater is central to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and targets adopted in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development in the region. It is directly linked to SDG6 and central to achieving many other SDGs such as SDG2 for ending hunger. It is also an important component of climate change adaptation, having a high buffer capacity against drought. Accordingly, the projected impacts of climate change on water resources in the region, will further increase dependency on groundwater at a time when groundwater recharge is also projected to decrease, necessitating conjunctive management of surface water and groundwater. The impacts of climate change on groundwater at the aquifer level is showcased by ESCWA on the Beni-Amir aquifer, Morocco and the Eocene aquifer, Palestine. Results from the study on Beni-Amir aquifer indicate that the water table is expected to decrease 10 to 25 m (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively) by end of century, resulting in partial depletion of resources in the top three layers of the aquifer system, particularly in the northern Beni-Amir area. In the case of Palestine, the results on the Eocene aquifer showed that in the 2041-2060 horizon, the average precipitation is expected to decrease in all scenarios between 3% and 12%, whereas the recharge in 5 out of 6 precipitation scenarios showed a reduction by 12%-16%. Consequently, with no decrease in the aquifer pumping, the water levels in all scenarios will drop. The declining availability of groundwater resources due to increased consumption, develop-ment demands, inefficient use and climate change should prompt Arab States to explore innova-tive and integrated governance frameworks to improve groundwater resources management and ensure equitable access for current and future generations to this strategic resource. Groundwater governance has been historically weak in the Arab region, characterized by fragmented legislations and policies, limited funding, lack of coordination and lack of data and knowledge. More recent evaluation of the management of groundwater resources through the SDG indicator 6.5.1 report-ing mechanisms on the degree of implementation of IWRM has unfortunately reinforced some of the main challenges listed above in the Arab region mainly in terms of lack of implementation of management tools and proper financing. In response to the lack or fragmentation of groundwater management policies, ESCWA developed regional groundwater abstraction management guidelines offering a unified approach to deal with uncontrolled groundwater exploitation and use. Groundwater governance is further complicated by transboundary aquifers. In fact, all coun-tries, except for Comoros, share at least one aquifer with their neighboring countries. These trans-boundary aquifers cover almost 58% of the Arab region's total area. Some of these aquifers are directly connected to surface-water hydrological systems and should also be conjunctively man-aged. Other transboundary aquifers contain fossil groundwater reserves requiring specialized legal, policy and management frameworks that consider their non-renewable character. The status of regional transboundary water cooperation is captured in a recent regional report prepared by ESCWA on the progress on SDG indicator 6.5.2 in the Arab region for the year 2021. The report revealed the challenges faced by the Arab states that hinder the establishment of well-developed cooper-ation frameworks which are mainly linked to lack of knowledge and data exchange and financial constraints. However, there are encouraging signs where cooperation on transboundary aquifers has progressed, including a Joint Authority for the Nubian sandstone Aquifer, a cooperation framework for the Senegalo-Mauritanian Aquifer, a signed agreement for the Saq-Ram Aquifer, and a consulta-tion mechanism on the North Western Sahar Aquifer System. These cooperation agreements should be maintained and further developed by holding regular meetings, coordinating objectives and management plans, and regularly exchanging data and information. Regional knowledge exchange around these agreements should be enforced. Advances in technologies provide an opportunity to fill the data and information gap that hin-ders the management of groundwater. Integrated remote sensing data offer a solution to assess the groundwater status. In addition, Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) is one of the most important solutions to consider for securing water supply and for improving groundwater quality where it is deteriorating. MAR is already used in more than 44 sites across the Arab region. Technologies can assist in selection of where MAR can be a potential solution for the region and for improving the water security. Furthermore, in response to the need for availing more data and information on groundwater and improving access to such data as established through the reporting on SDG indicators 6.5.1 and 6.5.2, ESCWA will be initiating an Arab Groundwater Digital Knowledge Platform. This platform aims to increase access to regional knowledge and information on groundwater resources through a dedicated digital interactive platform. Finally, the relation of groundwater to water scarcity, human activity, transboundary water cooperation, climate change, and water governance is highlighted in the following key findings.

2022

10.5004/dwt.2022.28231

Zambrano, Karla

Climate crisis, women and children: between vulnerability and the urgent protection of their rights. Glimpses from the European continent

RELACIONES INTERNACIONALES-MADRID

Since the end of the 18th century, the burning and use of hydrocarbons has been the main source of energy used by mankind to achieve more developed societies, ignoring -at first - the high cost of natural resources involved. The use of this type of non-renewable energy has caused serious imbalances in the atmosphere and, in turn, a great impact on all the Earth's ecosystems, since any type of alteration in the atmosphere causes, as a consequence, further transformations in the rest of The conclusions reached by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are the results of more than 30 years of research dedicated to the study of the climate system and its alterations. It is not, therefore, a diffuse and banal reflection to be downplayed, quite the contrary, as it recreates the present and future scenario to which legal science must respond. Science, as usual, often leads the way in international rule-making and standard-setting processes, and has been decisive on climate change: there is an urgent need for a drastic reduction in the levels of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that human activities release into the atmosphere. Indeed, even if the Paris Agreement targets are met, resilience or adaptation and climate stability will be some of the greatest challenges facing humanity. There is now a clear scientific consensus on the unequivocal attribution of climate change to human activities. However, the impacts of climate variability are biased and the crosscutting issues that surround them, such as inequity and the vulnerability of multiple groups, such as women and children, are often displaced in the face of the severe damage already being done to the Earth's oceans, atmosphere, ice and biosphere, rapidly and pervasively. The greenhouse effect is an inherently discriminatory phenomenon because it affects systemically, unequally and disproportionately not only people belonging to a certain group, but also constitutes an emerging, progressive and increasingly frequent and intense damage to societies and nations that have not reached their maximum levels of development, or that lack the measures or the technology to adapt to climate variability. The purpose of this article is twofold. On the one hand, it aims to identify the direct consequences of anthropogenic global warming on women and children, interweaving the scientific basis with legal science, which will allow us to contextualize the current state of the situation in an objective manner; on the other hand, it aims to define the position of the international community on both issues, from a critical point of view, a human rights-based approach, and with a special reference to the European jurisdictional progress, which could contribute to enhance the international climate cooperation. This also includes legal proposals based on the principles of equal treatment and opportunities between women and men, and intergenerational equity, the empowerment of citizens to receive quality environmental education, the participation and integration of both women and new generations in political decisions on issues that affect them, and their inclusion in the discussion and analysis of the impact of the climate emergency based on scientific knowledge. This research is based on the axis of different theoretical frameworks, and seeks both to establish connections between different areas of knowledge and to provide an international legal response to the problem of global warming for women and children through the analysis of international law and its implementation. In addition, this study is based on the principle of scientific evidence that underpins the work of the IPCC and, more specifically, will build on the efforts of Working Group II (WGII) of the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) on impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation. In the international legal sphere, this paper aims to link two areas of international law as major references: international human rights law and the legal framework regulating climate change in the international forum. With regard to the structure of this article, we will find an introduction to the state of the question, followed by the theoretical-methodological aspects that are intertwined in this research: the interweaving of postcolonial feminist theory, scientific knowledge and legal argumentation. The second section of this study aims to contextualize the impacts of climate change on ecosystems and the most vulnerable groups, with references to the contributions of Working Groups I and II of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report and other scientific studies that support the position of the vulnerability of women and children to the adverse effects of climate change. Within the second section, the IPCC has concluded that countries are already experiencing increasing impacts such as biodiversity loss, extreme weather events, land degradation, desertification and deforestation, sand and dust storms, persistent drought, sea level rise, coastal erosion, ocean acidification and mountain glacier retreat, causing severe disruption to societies, economies, employment, agricultural, industrial and commercial systems, global trade, supply chains and travel. It has also reported thata there has been a devastating impact on sustainable development, including poverty eradication and livelihoods, threatening food security and nutrition and water accessibility. Furthermore, a sub-section has been created that will detail some of the impacts of climate change specifically on women and children. In this sense, it is evident that women's reproductive rights are affected, there is an increase in vector-borne diseases with discriminatory tendencies based on gender, the manifestation of socio-economic inequalities linked to climate change, marginalisation, and the lack of capacity of children to adapt to climate change. The third section is devoted to providing a legal overview of the doctrine's position on the matter and the cases currently being heard in some courts where the plaintiffs are women and minors. This section highlights the impossibility of ignoring both the feminist approach and the intergenerational equity approach. It is also pointed out that in the elaboration of climate policies, it is not enough to draw up a list of insufficient and empty climate policies to comply with international commitments, since when it comes to demanding the jurisdictional protection of human rights in the context of the climate crisis, there are a series of complications rooted in the evidentiary capacity that governs any judicial procedure. The conclusions section contains both a synthesis of the different sections of this article, as well as a series of legally and socially viable proposals that contribute to the knowledge of climate change, its different impacts, policies for prevention and adaptation to the risks of extreme meteorological phenomena and, if necessary, keys that reinforce the path towards climate litigation.

2023

10.15366/relacionesinternacionales2023.53.002

Miola, Iage; Junqueira, Gabriela de Oliveira; Prol, Flavio; Vecchione-Goncalves, Marcela; Ferrando, Tomaso; Herrera, Hector

Green bonds in the world-ecology: capital, nature and power in the financialized expansion of the forestry industry in Brazil

RELACIONES INTERNACIONALES-MADRID

The 2008 financial crisis opened the doors of green capitalism as a financially sound approach to saving the planet from the worst effects of the climate emergency. The emphasis on the role of finance in promoting green growth has permeated mainstream political,academic and business approaches to climate change adaptation and mitigation, assuming multiple forms - from the carbon markets of the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement, to the Environmental, Social and Governance taxonomy for green investments, to the proliferation of sustainable labels in several economic sectors. The present article offers a critical appraisal of one of the most prominent arguments that upholds the idea that it is possible and desirable to achieve sustainability and economic growth through finance: green bonds. Green bonds are debt instruments whose proceeds are earmarked to fund projects with supposedly environmental benefits. After some years in the background, they now occupy a central position in the green recovery narrative and political framework all over the world. Most of the academic literature tends to naturalize green bonds as an eminently technical solution to reconcile economic growth and environmental sustainability. Filling an epistemological gap, the present article leverages a world-ecology approach to embed the financial phenomenon of green bonds within the broader picture of the capitalist political economy and the expansion of its ecological frontier. In light of the ongoing experiences that the authors have been following in the Brazilian legal,financial and political context, the article unpacks and makes sense of green bonds as a tool in the hands of climate finance that reproduces global patterns of North-South uneven development and the shifting of ecological costs. To test the potential of the interpretative framework offered by a world-ecology approach, we mobilize it in the concrete case of green bonds issuances directed to fund the forestry sector in Brazil. Aware that the current phenomenon only represents a blip in comparison to the largeer temporal (the longue duree) and spatial (the world system) scales usually deployed by world-ecology, we nonetheless discuss how the ideological, technical and power dynamics behind the issuance of green bonds unleash capital accumulation, produce a financialized and subordinated construction of nature, and entail an institutional arrangement. The article is organized around 3 main sections. After the introduction, section 1 describes green bonds as one of the most fashionable financial topics of the moment, and one that promotes a shift in discourses towards the need of actively building a green economy. Although from a legal standpoint green bonds embody no significant difference from regular bonds, our focus is to describe the promises around them, the current (private) governance structure, and the trends in the issuance of these debt instruments both in the Global North and South, with a specific focus on the case of Brazil. In section 2, we look at the operations of green bonds emissions on the ground, i.e. taking as an example the context of green debt underpinning the Brazilian forestry sector. The analysis reveals how the emissions, made predominantly by large multinational companies actively present on the global market, feed off great efforts deployed by both the public and the private sector in constructing an image of the sector as a key player in the emergent bioeconomy and in the strengthening of Brazil's goals in the Paris Agreement. However,we describe how green bond revenues that are officially committed to the implementation of sustainable management of forests are associated with the expansion of the ecological frontier in the Brazilian territory, stretching the boundaries of the area dedicated to tree plantations and amplifying social and environmental tensions. The backstage of the emissions shows how capital accumulation through green bonds is associated with the coproduction of nature for the purpose of accumulation, generating concerns that are often diluted or transformed into procedural requirements. Debt generated by the subscription of green bonds, we argue, is not only financial, but also social and ecological. In section 3, we put forward that for private accumulation to be successful, green bonds in the forestry sector demand an institutional arrangement that combines state support and private governance of debt in its financial, social and ecological dimensions. Rather than being the result of an idealized and spontaneous market, a set of institutional transformations have to be considered in order to comprehend the feasibility of green bonds in the Brazilian forestry sector. We thus describe the historic connection between forestry and the state, the endless public incentives to put nature to work, the functional adaptations of the Brazilian environmental legislation and the regulation concerning the demarcation, access and use of land. In this context, we argue that green bonds add yet a new institutional layer to the process of creating and validating specific forms of nature, through a governance structure that dilutes the tensions between the promise of environmental benefits and its concrete negative social and environmental impacts. We conclude the article by reassembling these findings as part of the capitalist world ecology dialectical unity of capital accumulation, co-production of nature and power. We suggest that the world-ecology approach allows us to grasp green bonds as a complex form that has so far been ignored in the relevant literature. As any other phenomenon of financialization, a green bond should not be understood in isolation from its material basis, since it is from that basis - and its social and environmental conditions and contradictions - that it appropriates value. As the example of the Brazilian forestry sector illuminates, the greenness of the financial debt inscribed in green bonds may come into existence at the expense of the social and environmental debt that underlie the forestry sector productive model. Hence, although the explicit inclusion of environmental concerns into financial considerations and project implementation has been praised as a step towards the recognition that finance has a material impact on the planet and that these externalities shall be accounted for, the article warns of the typical green arithmetic move put forward by green bonds. Green bonds inevitably co-produce nature and social relations, but in a very unequal way that emphasizes capital accumulation and that does not necessarily protect the environment (even when standards are introduced). Much to the contrary, green bonds may come into being at the expense of other ways of living ecologically, and by restoring injustices of the past and creating a regenerative future - in other words, by creating debt.

2021

10.15366/relacionesinternacionales2021.46.009

Del Soldato, Elisabetta; Massari, Sonia

Creativity and digital strategies to support food cultural heritage in Mediterranean rural areas

EUROMED JOURNAL OF BUSINESS

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to address the challenges faced by rural areas and promote their sustainable development. It emphasizes the importance of re-establishing connections and cultivating a sense of belonging within rural communities, while safeguarding their cultural heritage. The study explores the potential of digital and creative tools in enhancing learning, supporting food production and tourism, facilitating research and providing engaging experiences. It also examines the economic condition of rural areas and the potential for their contribution to the national economy. Additionally, the study highlights the significance of sustainable community development, the role of rural areas in resilience and climate change adaptation and the complexities surrounding rural migration. The aim is to provide insights and recommendations for policymakers and stakeholders involved in rural development initiatives, focusing on the Mediterranean region.Design/methodology/approachThis study develops an understanding of the role of digital and creative strategies in rural communities, highlighting their significance in preserving food heritage, culture and community capital while driving economic development. It specifically focuses on the Unesco Intangible Mediterranean Diet (UIMD) as a potential catalyst for regeneration through the integration of creative and digital tools and three cases are presented. The first is the impact of the Future Food Institute (FFI) ecosystem in the Living Lab in Pollica (Salerno, Italy); the second focuses on the digital tools provided by the CKF to support rural areas; and the third is a new identity and promotion of territorial development, co-designed in the Val di Vara (VdV) a rural region of the Ligurian inland in Italy, through digital strategies, heritage preservation and slow tourism development. The three cases highlight different ways of enhancing environmental and cultural heritage and demonstrate how collaborative creativity and digital tools contribute to the co-construction of knowledge and addressing critical issues to promote sustainable growth in rural areas.FindingsThe findings of this study indicate that re-establishing connections and fostering a sense of belonging within rural communities is crucial for their sustainable development. The use of digital and creative tools presents significant opportunities in enhancing various aspects such as learning, food production, tourism and research in rural areas. The study also reveals the potential economic contributions of rural areas to the national economy. It emphasizes the importance of sustainable community development and highlights the role of rural areas in resilience and climate change adaptation. Additionally, the study addresses the complexities surrounding rural migration and emphasizes the need for comprehensive policies to ensure the well-being and rights of migrant workers. The insights and recommendations provided in this study aim to guide policymakers and stakeholders involved in rural development initiatives, particularly in the Mediterranean region.Research limitations/implicationsNonetheless, it is imperative to acknowledge certain limitations within the scope of this study, primarily associated with the specific sample selection, potentially influencing the broader applicability of the findings. There is potential to explore a wider geographic area in future research. Additionally, the research underscores the importance of conducting further inquiries into certain aspects that have received limited attention. Living labs are a relatively recent phenomenon, warranting further in-depth scientific research. Additionally, the existing literature on this subject is often limited in scope.Practical implicationsThe study and project aim to illustrate the feasibility of initiating a transformative process, centered on a visionary approach with a core focus on creative knowledge and the Mediterranean diet as a way of life, to revitalize marginalized communities. Furthermore, it seeks to emphasize that these neglected regions possess untapped potential for innovative ideas and opportunities. Rural communities, in their role as farmers of primary goods, are the ones who nurture the environment, and the landscape, and are the true protagonists of every era. Rurality is the place that preserves the most resources and potential in terms of biodiversity and rural knowledge. Every territory, like every human being, has its own characteristics and vocations to pursue. The existing Genius Loci is already an existing value that requires policies and governance to rediscover roots, identity and worth. The stratification of existing collective intelligence must become central and must be individually assessed and enhanced, also taking advantage of new digital technologies.Social implicationsThe social implications of this study are significant. By emphasizing the importance of re-establishing connections and cultivating a sense of belonging within rural communities, the study recognizes the social value of strong community ties. This can lead to increased social cohesion, a sense of identity and improved overall well-being within rural areas. The study also highlights the potential of digital and creative tools in enhancing learning, which can contribute to the empowerment and educational opportunities of individuals in rural communities. Furthermore, by promoting sustainable community development and addressing the complexities surrounding rural migration, the study acknowledges the social impact of inclusive policies that protect the rights and well-being of both local populations and migrant workers. Overall, the study's recommendations have the potential to foster social resilience, equity and a more vibrant social fabric within rural areas.Originality/valueThis study can offer valuable insights and recommendations for policymakers and stakeholders involved in rural development initiatives, particularly those focused on preserving food and cultural heritage in rural areas. By analyzing real-life examples, it bridges the gap between theory and practice, illustrating how these ideas have been effectively applied in specific contexts. This paper emphasizes the potential of the Mediterranean Diet as a sustainable and nutritious model with sociocultural, health, economic and environmental benefits, highlighting the importance of bottom-up approaches that empower local communities as custodians of knowledge and culture. It also provides practical strategies, such as investments in educational programs, the establishment of international campuses and the use of multichannel platforms for immersive experiences, which can be adapted for broader rural development initiatives, promoting sustainability and community engagement.

2024

10.1108/EMJB-05-2023-0152

Easterling, W; Apps, M

Assessing the consequences of climate change for food and forest resources: A view from the IPCC

CLIMATIC CHANGE

Important findings on the consequences of climate change for agriculture and forestry from the recently completed Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are reviewed, with emphasis on new knowledge that emerged since the Second Assessment Report (SAR). The State-Pressure-Response-Adaptation model is used to organize the review. The major findings are: Constant or declining food prices are expected for at least the next 25 yr, although food security problems will persist in many developing countries as those countries deal with population increases, political crisis, poor resource endowments, and steady environmental degradation. Most economic model projections suggest that low relative food prices will extend beyond the next 25 yr, although our confidence in these projections erodes farther out into the 21st century. Although deforestation rates may have decreased since the early 1990s, degradation with a loss of forest productivity and biomass has occurred at large spatial scales as a result of fragmentation, non-sustainable practices and infrastructure development. According to United Nations estimates, approximately 23% of all forest and agricultural lands were classified as degraded over the period since World War II. At a worldwide scale, global change pressures (climate change, land-use practices and changes in atmospheric chemistry) are increasingly affecting the supply of goods and services from forests. The most realistic experiments to date - free air experiments in an irrigated environment - indicate that C-3 agricultural crops in particular respond favorably to gradually increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations (e.g., wheat yield increases by an average of 28%), although extrapolation of experimental results to real world production where several factors (e.g., nutrients, temperature, precipitation, and others) are likely to be limiting at one time or another remains problematic. Moreover, little is known of crop response to elevated CO2 in the tropics, as most of the research has been conducted in the mid-latitudes. Research suggests that for some crops, for example rice, CO2 benefits may decline quickly as temperatures warm beyond optimum photosynthetic levels. However, crop plant growth may benefit relatively more from CO2 enrichment in drought conditions than in wet conditions. The unambiguous separation of the relative influences of elevated ambient CO2 levels, climate change responses, and direct human influences (such as present and historical land-use change) on trees at the global and regional scales is still problematic. In some regions such as the temperate and boreal forests, climate change impacts, direct human interventions (including nitrogen-bearing pollution), and the legacy of past human activities (land-use change) appear to be more significant than CO2 fertilization effects. This subject is, however an area of continuing scientific debate, although there does appear to be consensus that any CO2 fertilization effect will saturate (disappear) in the coming century. Modeling studies suggest that any warming above current temperatures will diminish crop yields in the tropics while up to 2-3 degrees C of warming in the mid-latitudes may be tolerated by crops, especially if accompanied by increasing precipitation. The preponderance of developing countries lies in or near the tropics; this finding does not bode well for food production in those countries. Where direct human pressures do not mask them, there is increasing evidence of the impacts of climate change on forests associated with changes in natural disturbance regimes, growing season length, and local climatic extremes. Recent advances in modeling of vegetation response suggest that transient effects associated with dynamically responding ecosystems to climate change will increasingly dominate over the next century and that during these changes the global forest resource is likely to be adversely affected. The ability of livestock producers to adapt their herds to the physiological stress of climate change appears encouraging due to a variety of techniques for dealing with climate stress, but this issue is not well constrained, in part because of the general lack of experimentation and simulations of livestock adaptation to climate change. Crop and livestock farmers who have sufficient access to capital and technologies should be able to adapt their farming systems to climate change. Substantial changes in their mix of crops and livestock production may be necessary, however, as considerable costs could be involved in this process because investments in learning and gaining experience with different crops or irrigation. Impacts of climate change on agriculture after adaptation are estimated to result in small percentage changes in overall global income. Nations with large resource endowments (i.e., developed countries) will fare better in adapting to climate change than those with poor resource endowments (i.e., developing countries and countries in transition, especially in the tropics and subtropics) which will fare worse. This, in turn, could worsen income disparities between developed and developing countries. Although local forest ecosystems will be highly affected, with potentially significant local economic impacts, it is believed that, at regional and global scales, the global supply of timber and non-wood goods and services will adapt through changes in the global market place. However, there will be regional shifts in market share associated with changes in forest productivity with climate change: in contrast to the findings of the SAR, recent studies suggest that the changes will favor producers in developing countries, possibly at the expense of temperate and boreal suppliers. Global agricultural vulnerability is assessed by the anticipated effects of climate change on food prices. Based on the accumulated evidence of modeling studies, a global temperature rise of greater than 2.5 degrees C is likely to reverse the trend of falling real food prices. This would greatly stress food security in many developing countries.

2005

10.1007/s10584-005-5941-0

Avordeh, Timothy King; Gyamfi, Samuel; Opoku, Alex Akwasi

Quantitative estimation of the impact of climate change on residential electricity demand for the city of Greater Accra, Ghana

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENERGY SECTOR MANAGEMENT

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of temperature on residential electricity demand in the city of Greater Accra, Ghana. It is believed that the increasing trend of temperatures may significantly affect people's lives and demand for electricity from the national grid. Given the recurrent electricity crisis in Ghana, this study will investigate both the current and future residential energy demands in the light of temperature fluctuations. This will inform future power generation using renewable energy resources mix to find a sustainable solution to the recurrent energy demand challenges in Ghana. This study will help the Government of Ghana to better understand the temperature dependence of residential energy demand, which in turn will help in developing behavioral modification programs aimed at reducing energy consumption. Monthly data for the temperature and residential electricity consumption for Greater Accra Region from January 2007 to December 2018 obtained from the Ghana Meteorological Service (GMS) and Ghana Grid Company (Gridco), respectively, are used for the analysis. Design/methodology/approach This study used monthly time series data from 2007 to 2018. Data on monthly electricity demand and temperature are obtained from the Ghana Grid Company and GMS. The theoretical framework for residential electricity consumption, the log-linear demand equation and time series regression approaches was used for this study. To demonstrate certain desirable properties and to produce good estimators in this study, an analysis technique of ordinary least squares measurement was also applied. Findings This study showed an impact on residential electricity requirements in the selected regions of Greater Accra owing to temperature change. The analysis suggests a substantial positive response to an increase in temperature demand for residential electricity and thus indicates a growth of the region's demand for electricity in the future because of temperature changes. As this analysis projects, the growth in the electricity demand seems too small for concern, perhaps because of the incoherence of the mechanisms used to regulate the temperature by the residents. However, two points should be considered when drawing any conclusions even in the case of Greater Accra alone. First, the growth in the demand for electricity shown in the present study is the growth of demand due only to increasing temperatures that do not consider changes in all the other factors driving the growth of demand. The electricity demand will in the future increase beyond what is induced by temperature, due to increasing demand, population and mechanization and other socioeconomic factors. Second, power consumption understated genuine electricity demand, owing to the massive shedding of loads (Dumsor) which occurred in Ghana from 2012 to 2015 in the analysis period that also applies in the Greater Accra region. Given both of these factors, the growth in demand for electricity is set to increase in response to climate change, which draws on the authorities to prepare more critically on capacity building which loads balancing. The results also revealed that monthly total residential electricity consumption, particularly the monthly peak electricity consumption in the city of Accra is highly sensitive to temperature. Therefore, the rise in temperature under different climate change scenarios would have a high impact on residential electricity consumption. This study reveals that the monthly total residential electricity demand in Greater Accra will increase by up to 3.1%. Research limitations/implications The research data was largely restricted to only one region in Ghana because of the inconsistencies in the data from the other regions. The only climate variable use was temperature because it was proven in the literature that it was the most dominant variable that affects electricity demand, so it was not out of place to use only this variable. The research, however, can be extended to capture the entire regions of the country if sponsorship and accurate data can be obtained. Practical implications The government as the policy and law-making authority has to play the most influential role to ensure adaptation at all levels toward the impact of climate change for residential consumers. It is the main responsibility of the government to arrange enough supports to help residential consumers adapt to climate change and try to make consumers self-sufficient by modification of certain behaviors rather than supply dependent. Government bodies need to carefully define their climate adaptation supports and incentive programs to influence residential-level consumption practices and demand management. Here, energy policies and investments need to be more strategic. The most critical problem is to identify the appropriate adaptation policies that favor the most vulnerable sectors such as the residential sector. Social implications To evaluate both mitigation and adaptation policies, it is important to estimate the effect of climate change on energy usage around the world. Existing empirical figures, however, are concentrated in Western nations, especially the USA. To predict how electricity usage will shift in the city of Greater Accra, Ghana, the authors used regular household electricity consumption data. Originality/value The motivation for this paper and in particular the empirical analysis for Ghana is originality for the literature. This paper demonstrates an adequate understanding of the relevant literature in modern times.

2021

10.1108/IJESM-08-2020-0008

Bacci, M.; Idrissa, O. A.; Zini, C.; Burrone, S.; Sitta, A. A.; Tarchiani, V.

Effectiveness of agrometeorological services for smallholder farmers: The case study in the regions of Dosso and Tillab?eri in Niger

CLIMATE SERVICES

The increasing frequency of extreme events in West Africa, such as droughts and floods, has made populations that base their subsistence mostly on rainfed agriculture even more vulnerable to climate threats. Climate Ser-vices (CS) are largely acknowledged as effective tools for tackling climate risks in agriculture, particularly in semi-arid developing countries but evidences of their effectiveness are still jeopardized. In Niger a climate service (CS) has been set up in the regions of Dosso and Tillabe acute accent ri by the National Meteorological Service (NMS) to provide salient information for smallholder farmers. The CS was built on a robust collaboration among NMS, local extension services and authorities and farmers in 8 municipalities. The case study shows that a large share of farmers receives throughout the cropping season climatic information and advice via roving seminars and various media, including instant messaging services and radio broadcasts. Nevertheless, the results indicate that access to CS alone doesn't imply relevant positive impacts on crop yields while the training of farmers in the use of the information results to be a significant factor. Indeed, in 2020, yields of trained farmers are significantly higher by around 17% compared to those of non-trained ones. Training and iterative interaction between farmers and NMS could also have indirect effects on information uptake, contributing to building reciprocal trust and therefore stronger action by trained farmers. The study confirms the importance of the social learning process in CS co-development. Since the study is limited by the small sample and the dataset covering only one cropping season, further research is needed to deepen cost-benefit analysis and disentangle the relative contribution of the CS components to yield increase. Indeed, evidences of the positive impact of CS could represent a leverage for local governments and international funders to support CS co-development and related capacity building activities. Practical implication: Climate variability and a strong increase in extreme hydro meteorological events are affecting agriculture production and exacerbating food insecurity in West Africa. In Niger, the vulnerability of agricultural production systems is coupled to ecosystem fragility and soil degradation. In this area, the rural population is the most vulnerable to climate threats because they have a reduced capability to implement effective risk reduction and climate change adaptation strategies and national government has limited resources to invest in climate policies. The CS implemented for the regions of Dosso and Tillabe acute accent ri in Niger demonstrates that it is possible to set up an effective network for disseminating agrometeorological information for smallholder farmers at the municipal level with the aim of reducing the impact of climate threats on agriculture production. The information produced by the National Meteorological Service (NMS) is spread through extension services and rural radios to reach farmers. At the same time the agrometeorological field data are collected by local farmers and sent to the national service, ensuring the continuous monitoring of the cropping season. Subse-quently, the agrometeorological information is coupled with setting up roving seminars in each municipality to spread tailored advice for farmers concerning seasonal climate forecasts and to build capacities in the use of agrometeorological advices during the season. During these seminars, rain gauges are also distributed to farmers and their use explained. In this way, farmers become able to autonomously take some tactical decisions, such as better timing the sowing of crops or performing farming activities, basing these choices on direct observations. The present case study demonstrates that the mere receipt of the climate information is not clearly related to an increase in yields; contrariwise, farmers who received training on how to properly use the information, have significantly higher yields. Repeated capacity building and information distribution over the years represent an element of trust building for end users who are more prone to use these CS in their agricultural choices, integrating their traditional knowledge. The next challenge is to guarantee the sustainability of these networks over time, because, even if technology advances could reduce the costs of the production and distribution of climate services, the training activities and maintaining the rural observation network are challenging. A possible way to make it sustainable is to reinforce institutional collaboration. Moreover, the use of a participatory approach in co-designing the CS could be a key element in pursuing the active involvement of the local population and administrations and could increase their motivation in the data exchange process. Basing on obtained results, the authors recommend to pursue the development of tailored CS for smallholder farmers in similar rural contexts, since these services constitute a real contribution to climate change adaptation at the local level in rural areas and future experiences could ensure the fine tuning of the climate information products, reducing delivery costs and increasing benefits for stakeholders. Finally, it is also recommended to further assess the cost/benefit ratio of CS in order to leverage funds and ensure scaling up and sustainability.

2023

10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100360

Degefu, Mekonnen Amberber; Kifle, Fantu

Impacts of climate variability on the vegetable production of urban farmers in the Addis Ababa metropolitan area: Nexus of climate-smart agricultural technologies

CLIMATE SERVICES

This study was aimed at examining the impacts of climate variability on vegetable production and nexus climatesmart agriculture technologies. The study was conducted on vegetable farmers along the little Akaki River in Addis Ababa. Field data was collected from 156 randomly selected vegetable farmers via semi-structured survey questions. Climate data from 1996 to 2020 was analysed using qualitative and quantitative descriptive statistics methods. The results of monthly and annual precipitation variability indicated a coefficient of variation (CV) ranging from 23% to 73% and 49% to 98%, respectively. Seasonally, CV ranges between 34% and 99%, 50%- 97%, and 20%-84% in Belg, Bega, and Kiremt, respectively. The results of respondents' perceptions indicated an increasing trend in temperature and precipitation variability. Vegetable urban farmers perceived an increase in the frequency of floods and rain falls (44.9%), drought frequency (13.5%), temperature (89.7%), and a decrease in the trend of vegetable productivity (86.5%) as the major impacts of climate variability. However, changing vegetable varieties (31.4%), early planting (26.9%), mixed farming (26.6%), late planting (5.1%), using agrochemicals (4.5%), and agroforestry (1.9%) are the major on-farm climates where smart agriculture technologies were identified for adaptation. Shift occupation (37.8%), nonadaptation (36.5%), and non-farm activations (24.4%) were employed by the farmers as off-farm adaptation options. In addition, vulnerability analysis indicated that the absence of direct access to the market, inadequate access to weather information, land fragmentation, and tenure complications are the major determinants of being vulnerable. Finally, high precipitation and temperature variability affect vegetable productivity. Practical Implications: Climate extreme phenomena are substantial pressures on urban agricultural production systems in risk-prone cities, where climate service challenges are rising globally (Sanfo et al., 2022; Kifle et al., 2022; Ebissa and Desta, 2022); besides, the requirement to produce more urban vegetables to feed residents, an ever-increasing and vulnerable group, is undeniable (Martinez et al., 2022). Additionally, climate variability and change threaten urban and pre-urban farmers' livelihoods and agricultural farming, particularly in semi-arid areas in Africa (Magesa et al., 2023). Furthermore, 64 % of the world's poorest people lived in sub-Saharan Africa in 2020, which strongly requires the implementation of Sustainable Development Goals 1 (no poverty), 2 (zero hunger) and 11 (make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient, and sustainable) in the region (Magesa et al., 2023; Chitakira and Ngcobo, 2021; Degefu et al., 2021c). Thus, cities are exposure to compatible climate information services is vital for anticipating climate variability risks in vegetable production, optimizing the training of practitioners (urban farmers), and adapting to climate change through climate smart agriculture technologies (Degefu et al., 2021a; Chitakira and Ngcobo, 2021; Kifle et al., 2022). Moreover, it is compulsory to ascertain and analyze impact insights and their origins, vulnerabilities, and adaptive potential among urban farmers before beginning with the exercise of any given climate service to understand the demands of urban vegetable farmers and the possible exploitation of nexuses (Dendir and Simane, 2021). Conversely, in Ethiopia, the agriculture sector is identified as one of the sectors most vulnerable to climate change and vulnerability (Kifle et al., 2022). On top of these, the productivity and the concern of urban agriculture (vegetable production) is highly ignored and reduced the potential, productivity and suitability of ecological land (Kifle et al., 2022; Degefu et al., 2021b; Degefu et al., 2021c). Besides, the combined effect of climate variability, population pressure, and urban ecosystem dynamics reduced urban vegetable production and leads the farming community into a viscous of poverty circle and worsens food security (Amberber et al., 2020; Degefu et al., 2021c). However, previous studies have revealed that the effectiveness of climate information services on urban ecosystems depends on (i) the ability of urban farmers to access, understand, and overcome institutional constraints (Kiplagat et al., 2022) (ii) the capacity of end-users to translate the information and knowledge into effective decision-making options (Dendir and Simane, 2021), and (iii) the capacity of end-users to translate the information and knowledge into effective decision-making options (Martinez et al., 2022). To that end, the disparity between the awareness of urban farmers and policymakers towards the benefits of CSA and their practices implies that indigenous knowledge-based research on CSA farming and land management technology should be conducted. Therefore, it is crucial to appreciate the practices and adoption of CSA at the city level to realise triple-win outcomes: increased productivity, enhanced resilience, and mitigating climate variability and change.

2024

10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100430

Zhai, Panmao; Yuan, Yufeng; Yu, Rong; Guo, Jianping

Climate change and sustainable development for cities

CHINESE SCIENCE BULLETIN-CHINESE

Under the current background of global warming, extreme weather and climate events, such as heavy precipitation and heat wave events, have increased in most land areas of the world. Meanwhile, in cities, the intensity and frequency of heat waves and heavy precipitation events have further increased as the urban climate has additionally been affected by rapid land surface change, enhanced anthropogenic heat release, and massive aerosol emissions. These enhanced aerosol emissions also deteriorate the air quality, often causing severe air quality problems in cities. The added urbanization effect on global and regional climate change has imposed increasingly serious impacts on the dense population, heavy traffic, vast infrastructure, and economic assets of urban areas. China has experienced much faster warming than the global average from the late of 20st century, especially since 1990. The average warming rate in the seven largest cities (Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Wuhan and Chongqing) is higher than the average for China as a whole during the most recent 60 years. The number of hot days with maximum surface air temperatures over 35 degrees C has increased markedly since 1990. In the past two decades, many cities, such as Beijing, Jinan, and Chongqing have experienced extremely heavy precipitation events, causing dozens of fatalities. During the past 50 years, severe air pollution conditions have frequently occurred in many cities over eastern China. In South China, the Huanghe-Huaihe River Basin and North China, increasing trends in the number of haze days are evident. Influenced by global warming, cities in low-lying coastal areas are highly susceptible to sea level rise and the related impacts of sea water encroachment, especially during tropical cyclone and storm surge periods. In cities in northern China and inland areas, climate change-related drought frequently significantly impacts water resources and ecosystem services. In recent years, the issue of urban climate change has received considerable attention in China. Many climate change adaptation strategies have been put into action in cities. Also, urban areas account for about 75% of energy-related CO2 emissions worldwide, and thus play a dominant role in the mitigation of global greenhouse gases. Meanwhile, increased urban climate change and its impacts greatly challenge the social, economic and ecological sustainable development of China's cities. In 2015, the United Nations adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, at the heart of which are 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Goal 11, on making cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable, directly targets dealing with the challenges brought by urbanization. Many other goals, such as Goal 13 on taking urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts, Goal 3 on ensuring healthy lives and promoting wellbeing, Goal 6 on ensuring access to water and sanitation, and Goal 15 on protecting, restoring and promoting the sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, are all related to tackling climate change issues from the perspectives of human security and health, more resilient economies, and ecosystems. Obviously, implementation of these United Nations SDGs brings immediate impetus and new opportunities for climate change responses in cities. In the future, the impacts of global climate change and urbanization are expected to further increase. Cities will face more serious and complicated climate change risks to human health, economic development, and ecosystem services as our expectation of more hazards, higher exposure and vulnerability unfolds. For China, climate change and sustainable development in cities is an extremely prominent issue. However, systematic studies on climate change in cities are very limited, especially in terms of the interactions and mechanisms between global/regional climate change and urbanization processes, high-resolution climate change projections under the consideration of future urban development pathways, impact and risk assessments of climate change in combination with high exposure and vulnerability, and a portfolio of response options and measures for climate change in cities. Effective climate change actions rely on understanding the complexity and uncertainties of future climate change and related risks in cities. Under the framework of sustainable development, following related national green development strategies and polices, taking advantages of science, technology, finance and governance in cities, to actively tackle urban climate change issues, such as enhanced adaptation and mitigation measures, properly selecting development pathways will greatly enhance climate resilience in cities. A series of national actions, such as implementing low carbon cities and sponge cities, and the Action Plan on Prevention and Control of Atmospheric Pollution, will have co-benefits for climate change responses and sustainable development in cities.

2019

10.1360/N972018-00911

Houghton, Adele

HEALTH IMPACT ASSESSMENTS A Tool for Designing Climate Change Resilience into Green Building and Planning Projects

JOURNAL OF GREEN BUILDING

Historical records have documented considerable changes to the global climate, with significant health, economic, and environmental consequences. Climate projections predict more intense hurricanes; increased sea level rise; and more frequent and more intense natural disasters such as heat waves, heavy rainfall, and drought in the future (1; 2). The coast along the Gulf of Mexico is particularly vulnerable to many of these environmental hazards and at particular risk when several strike simultaneously-such as a hurricane disrupting electricity transmission during a heat wave. Due to its significant contribution to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the building sector already plays an important role in climate change mitigation efforts (e. g., reducing emissions). For example, voluntary programs such as the LEED (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design) Rating System (3), the Architecture 2030 Challenge (4), the American College and University Presidents' Climate Commitment (5), and the Clinton Climate Initiative (6) focus almost exclusively on reducing energy consumption and increasing renewable energy generation. Mandatory regulations such as the International Energy Conservation Code (7), the International Green Building Code (8), and CalGreen (9) also emphasize GHG emission reduction targets. This leadership role is necessary. After all, the United States EPA estimates that the building sector accounts for 62.7% of total annual GHG emissions in the U. S., when the construction sector, facility operations, and transportation are factored in. In fact, the construction sector alone is the third largest industrial emitter of GHGs after the oil and gas and chemical industries, contributing 1.7% of total annual emissions (10; 11). As significant as these contributions appear, the built environment's true contribution to climate change is much larger than the GHG emissions attributed to building construction and operations. It is also a major determinant of which populations are vulnerable to climate change-related hazards, such as heat waves and flooding (12; 13). Architecture and land use planning can therefore be used as tools for building community resilience to the climate-related environmental changes underway (13). Climate change regulations and voluntary programs have begun to incorporate requirements targeting the built environment's ability to work in tandem with the natural environment to both reduce greenhouse gas emissions and protect its occupants from the health consequences of a changing climate. For example, 11 states have incorporated climate change adaptation goals into their climate action plans (14). In 2010, the not-for-profit organization ICLEI: Local Governments for Sustainability launched a climate change adaptation program (15) to complement their existing mitigation program, which supports municipalities who have signed the U. S. Conference of Mayors' Climate Protection Agreement (16). New tools have been introduced to measure community vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. One of these tools, Health Impact Assessments (or HIAs), has emerged over the past decade as a powerful methodology to provide evidence-based recommendations to decision makers and community planning officials about the likely health co-benefits and co-harms associated with proposed policies and land use development proposals (17). While HIAs are becoming a more common feature of community planning efforts, this paper introduces them as an approach to designing climate change resilience into specific building projects. HIAs have been used in Europe and other parts of the world for decades to provide a science-based, balanced assessment of the risks and benefits to health associated with a proposed policy or program (18). In the U. S., they have been used over the past decade to evaluate transit-oriented developments, urban infill projects, and California's cap-and-trade legislation, among other topics (17; 19). To date, HIAs have been used mainly to inform large-scale community planning, land use, industrial, and policy decisions. However, the recommendations generated through the HIA process often bring to light previously unforeseen vulnerabilities, whether due to existing infrastructure, building technology, or socio-economic conditions. Designers can make use of the HIA process and its resulting recommendations to prioritize design/retrofit interventions that will result in the largest co-benefits to building owners, the surrounding community, and the environment. An HIA focused on the health impacts of climate change will likely generate recommendations that could enhance the longevity of a building project's useful life; protect its property value by contributing to the resilience of the surrounding community; and result in design decisions that prioritize strategies that maximize both short-term efficiencies and long-term environmental, economic, and social value.

2011

10.3992/jgb.6.2.66

Swaris, Nirma; Halwatura, Rangika Umesh; Amaratunga, Dilanthi

Policy coherence for resilience in Sri Lanka coherence of climate change adaptation (CCA) disaster risk reduction (DRR) and sustainable development goals (SDGs)

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RESILIENCE IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT

PurposePolicy coherence is a complex and tough task for many developing nations because their capacity to examine and deliver evidence-based inputs to policymaking is limited, and policy dialogue platforms need to be effectively used. Resolving these difficulties is a critical requirement for policy consistency. As a result, the study focuses on the level of policy coherence for climate change adaptation (CCA), disaster risk reduction (DRR) and sustainable development goals (SDG) in Sri Lanka and suggests routes for policy coherence for Resilience. This study aims to investigate the coherent approach of CCA, DRR and SDG; to identify concerns in policy documents addressing the coherence of CCA, DRR and SDG in local context; and to propose policy coherence suggestions for resilience in Sri Lanka.Design/methodology/approachMethodology comprises a review and content analysis of 17 policy and legal documents in Sri Lanka and a qualitative study. The qualitative approach consists of semistructured interviews that obtained deep and broad expertise knowledge with ten government representatives and stakeholders. Both content analysis and interview data were analyzed by using NVivo.FindingsIt was discovered that there are several issues with the coherence of policies in Sri Lanka, including the fragmented approach, lack of integration, inadequate coordination, limited resources and lack of monitoring and evaluation. The policies are inspired by international frameworks, and local implementations are not focused, leading to inadequate implementation of policies. The lack of development cooperation for the use of innovative approaches, such as climate-resilient infrastructure and environmentally friendly solutions for CCA and DRR, further aggravates the situation. Another concern is the lack of land use management and responsibility for the development of physical infrastructure for DRR integration with CCA. It is found that there is a limited community involvement which is vital for the implementation of policies. Local implementations are encouraged to fill the gaps in existing policies/acts. The analytical framework of the study is based on a preliminary examination of policy documents, a review of the literature and discussions with practitioners. The framework reflects the current situation of policy integration which addresses strategic, conceptual, institutional, operational and financial coherence. The research suggests pathways for achieving policy coherence in CCA, DRR and SDG in Sri Lanka, such as enhancing the strategic coherence by improving goals to increase the coherence within CCA, DRR and SDG; improving the credibility of the unified approach for developing DRR and CCA risk assessments; intensifying institutional cooperation and stakeholder management; improving the common monitoring and evaluation; establishing implementation strategies; and increasing the community involvement.Research limitations/implicationsThe study on policy coherence in Sri Lanka recommends increasing community and professional involvement, conducting more research, developing a national strategy, increasing capacity building, strengthening international collaboration and fostering multisectoral collaboration. These recommendations can help improve policy coherence between CCA, DRR and SDGs, align policies with national goals and priorities and improve implementation effectiveness. By implementing these recommendations, Sri Lanka can address the challenges of climate change and natural disasters and achieve SDGs. Practical implicationsThe study on policy coherence for resilience in Sri Lanka has practical implications, including improved coordination and resource allocation, increased capacity building, improved reputation and sustainability. By integrating CCA, DRR and SDGs, this study can help Sri Lanka become more resilient to climate change and natural disasters, achieve SDGs and become a responsible actor in the international community. These implications can contribute to a more sustainable future and ensure that development goals are achieved in a way that is resilient to climate change and natural disasters.Social implicationsIncreased community participation: the study emphasizes the importance of community involvement in the policy development process. This can help build trust between communities and government agencies, improve transparency and ensure that policies are developed in a way that is responsive to local needs and priorities.Originality/valueBased on the identified existing loopholes in the policies and pathways to policy coherence, the issues in policymaking could be overcome. It could be used to establish strong linkages between policies based on CCA, DRR and SDGs to achieve long-term resilience.

2023

10.1108/IJDRBE-02-2023-0035

Gannouni, Sonia; Messedi, Aziza Ghram; Riahi, Rihab; Rebai, Noamen

Potential of and constraints on the application of remote sensing in Tunisia

EURO-MEDITERRANEAN JOURNAL FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INTEGRATION

Remote sensing is becoming a useful operational tool for decision support. Information obtained from space is increasingly available. Since the American Landsat program in 1972, many countries have embarked on Earth observations, and there are now about 100 operational satellites in orbit. The potential and the results offered by remote sensing are remarkable if we consider the relative ease of obtaining information of any kind (especially environmental parameters) in a short period of time and at a certain distance, which is then repeated over time or even, in some cases, almost continuously. It allows a wide spatial coverage, greater objectivity and accuracy, as well as a lower cost overall than conventional sensing methods. For developed countries, remote sensing represents a revolution in the field of environmental monitoring, since these countries are the main suppliers of spatial data and software for processing these data. Developing countries, including Tunisia, have found themselves obligated to align themselves with these changes and transitions, and to actively work for greater participation in the elaboration of these changes in the most effective way. Remote sensing has been used for more than 40 years in Tunisia. It has been applied in various fields of research and development, such as agriculture, mapping, and planning. The main objective of this work was to assess the potential of remote sensing to be applied in each of these domains in Tunisia through a comparative multi-criteria analysis using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Four criteria (data used, tools and software, acquired competence, and financial resources) that have a significant impact on the potential for remote sensing application were included in our analysis. Weights were assigned to each parameter through a pairwise comparison matrix based on the AHP method. The results showed that agriculture and land use planning are the areas where remote sensing has the greatest potential, with high weights for all criteria studied. Regarding the criteria studied, it was observed that the criterion of data used is important for all application areas, followed by skills. For agriculture and land use planning, the criterion of data used (c1) is considered the most important, with a high weight of 59.4%. This suggests that the data used are a crucial influence on the application of remote sensing in these application areas. For its application to mapping, the choice of tools used (c2) is crucial, with a high weight of 31.3% for this criterion. For the environment, costs can be an important factor to consider, with a relatively high weight of 12.9% for the financial resources criteria (c4). The results of our study were validated by comparing them with those of a technology needs assessment report for climate adaptation conducted in Tunisia by the Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development [United Nations Development Programme (2016) Tunisia: technology needs assessment. Report on climate change adaptation. https://tech-action.unepccc.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2016/05/tunisia-tna-report-1feb2016-adaptation.pdf]. According to this report, the highest-priority sectors for the use of new technologies such as remote sensing in Tunisia are agriculture and water resources management as well as coastal, marine, and urban area management. These sectors were selected because of their weight in the country's economy and their vulnerability to climate change among the various sectors analysed in the report (agriculture and water resources management, management of urban, coastal and marine areas, ecosystem management, tourism and health). We used a sensitivity analysis method called the Morris method. This method estimates the importance of each criterion and each interaction between criteria to the variation in the results. The results of this analysis show that criterion c1 (data used) is the most important for all domains, with sensitivity indices ranging from 12.8 to 17.8%. Criterion c2 (tools and software) is also important for the mapping and environmental domains, with sensitivity indices of 11% and 10.2%, respectively. Criterion C3 (acquired competence) is important for the agriculture and environment domains, with sensitivity indices of 13% and 12.3%, respectively. Finally, criterion c4 (financial resources) is also important for the mapping and agriculture domains, with sensitivity indices of 12.1% and 13%, respectively. In conclusion, the sensitivity analysis shows that the overall results are quite robust to variations in the criteria.

2023

10.1007/s41207-023-00399-7

Munera-Roldan, Claudia; Colloff, Matthew J.; van Kerkhoff, Lorrae; Andrade, German I.

Using a futures orientation to enable adaptation of protected areas under climate change

PEOPLE AND NATURE

Protected areas are central for long-term conservation of biodiversity and can potentially support climate change mitigation. But protected areas are also affected by climate change. Managers and scientists are increasingly facing the difficult task of making decisions under rapid change. Understanding individual and institutional futures considerations for adaptation is fundamental to evaluate whether protected area governance is adequate to anticipate, prepare and respond to climate change. Using mixed qualitative methods, we analysed adaptation narratives extracted from 51 semi-structured interviews with conservation practitioners and scientists involved in protected area management in Australia, Colombia and South Africa. We applied a multidimensional model to examine how people make sense of the concept of adaptation. The model allowed us to evaluate how different actors perceive and conceptualise the future and their level of awareness of climate change impacts on values of protected areas, as reflected in the expectations and motivations behind adaptation actions. The results show a plurality of adaptation concepts and approaches. The narratives are framed under different governance approaches (top-down, bottom-up, participatory) influencing the sense of agency, the rationale for adaptation (adaptation of what and for whom) and the level of acceptance of change. Action time is associated with preferences and actions in response to ecological change, with more proactive action linked with systemic approaches. We propose that examining world views underpinning how individuals and institutions make sense of the concept of adaptation can support future-oriented conservation practices despite the inherent uncertainty of climate change. The narratives presented here may provide a basis to facilitate deliberations about current practices and identify potential contradictions between individual and collective aspirations for adaptation to create pathways for collective action towards desired futures.

2023

10.1002/pan3.10547

Badora, Damian; Wawer, Rafal; Krol-Badziak, Aleksandra

Modelling 2050 Water Retention Scenarios for Irrigated and Non-Irrigated Crops for Adaptation to Climate Change Using the SWAT Model: The Case of the Bystra Catchment, Poland

AGRONOMY-BASEL

The paper presents the estimated changes in the soil water content, the total runoff, the sediment yield and the actual evapotranspiration for the small Bystra catchment in the east of Poland. The findings are based on the results of three simulations covering the years of 2041-2050. The simulations were based on a calibrated and validated SWAT model (2010-2017). The first variant covers just the climate change and the existing structure of soil cultivation for the three regional climate models supported by the EC-EARTH global climate model in the emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Variants two and three are based on the first variant in terms of the changing climate. The second variant, however, involves placing a pond in each farm in the catchment, while the third variant involves designing huge reservoirs as a result of land consolidation. Variants two and three occur in five adaptation scenarios each. The first adaptation scenario (V2.1 and V3.1) involves only increasing the number of ponds on the farm or increasing the number of reservoirs for non-irrigated arable land crops, i.e., WWHT (winter cereals), BARL (spring cereals), CANP (rapeseed) and CRDY (other crops). The second adaptation scenario (V2.2 and V3.2) involves growing vegetables without irrigation (instead of cereals). The third adaptation scenario (V2.3 and V3.3) involves growing vegetables with irrigation (instead of cereals). The fourth adaptation scenario (V2.4 and V3.4) involves partial cultivation of vegetables and cereals. The fifth adaptation scenario (V2.5 and V3.5) involves partial cultivation of orchards and cereals. The adaptation scenarios of the irrigation of vegetables from deep water-bearing layers (second variant) or reservoirs (third variant) contribute to the increase in water content in the soil, especially in summer, in comparison with the adaptation scenarios for vegetable cultivation without irrigation. What is more, the actual evapotranspiration was higher in the adaptation scenarios involving irrigation than in scenarios without irrigation. It is known that the changes in water content in soil and the intensification of water erosion are gravely affected by modifications in crops and soil cultivation. A change from cereal cultivation to irrigated vegetable cultivation or orchards increased the water content in the soil in most climatic projections. However, the increase in the number of ponds in the second variant had little impact on the soil water content, actual evapotranspiration and overall runoff, while the erosion loss decreased. With the lower precipitation levels in the years 2041-2050 relative to 2010-2017, as presented in the emissive scenario RCP 4.5, the soil water content decreases by up to 14% for most variants. Total runoff for most variants will also be lower by 4-35%. The percentage change in sediment yield will fluctuate between -86% and 116%. On the other hand, the actual evapotranspiration for most variants will be higher. With higher precipitation levels in the years 2041-2050 relative to 2010-2017, as presented in the emissive scenario RCP 8.5, the soil water content changes slightly from -7% to +3%. Total runoff for most variants will also be higher by as much as 43%. Sediment yield for most scenarios may increase by 226%. The actual evapotranspiration for most variants will also be higher. Irrigation variants tend to increase soil available water while increasing evapotranspiration and total outflow in the catchment as compared to non-irrigated LULC. The largest increase in the soil water content is observed in most irrigation variants for RCP 4.5 (annual average 316-319 mm) (V2.3-V2.5, V3.2, and V3.3) and RCP 8.5 (annual average 326-327 mm) (V2.3-V2.5 and V3.3) as compared to V1 (BaU) (315 mm-RCP 4.5 and 324 mm-RCP 8.5) for the years 2041-2050. On the other hand, the lowest increase in soil water content is observed in the V3.5 variant, with an annual average of 292 mm for RCP 4.5 and an annual average of 311 mm for RCP 8.5. Thus, for future climate change scenarios, irrigation with water reservoirs (ponds and storage reservoirs) should be considered. The study proves the rationale behind building ponds in small catchments in order to increase water resources in a landscape and also to counteract adverse effects of climate changes, i.e., sediment outflow and surface water erosion.

2023

10.3390/agronomy13020404

Thiault, Lauric; Gelcich, Stefan; Cinner, Joshua E.; Tapia-Lewin, Sebastian; Chlous, Frederique; Claudet, Joachim

Generic and specific facets of vulnerability for analysing trade-offs and synergies in natural resource management

PEOPLE AND NATURE

The concept of vulnerability as the combination of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity to a stressor is gaining traction outside of the climate realm, opening new avenues to address contemporary sustainability issues more holistically. Yet, critical notions that underpin vulnerability have yet to be integrated into its application to natural resource management and non-climatic stressors. In particular, the way generic and stressor-specific facets of vulnerability interact and can inform decision-makers about how interventions combine and/or trade-off remains unexplored. Here, we investigate the salience of the generic/specific framing in the context of Chilean artisanal fishing communities engaged in rights-based co-management and experiencing pressures from two stressors: poaching and market volatility. Specifically, we draw on market data combined with socio-economic surveys conducted with 446 members and leaders from 42 fisher unions to quantitatively investigate potential trade-offs and synergies between facets of vulnerability to poaching and markets. Generic adaptive capacity (i.e. flexibility, assets, learning, organization and agency) likely facilitated stressor-specific adaptive capacities to both stressors. High levels of specific adaptive capacity to one stressor neither increased exposure nor undermined specific adaptive capacity to the other stressor. However, adaptive capacity did not translate into exposure reduction as expected, suggesting that adaptation barriers may prevent fishers from mobilizing adaptive capacity into effective adaptive action. This study illustrates how breaking down vulnerability into generic and specific facets can help us better anticipate important trade-offs and synergies in management interventions. More generally, it highlights the potential of the climate adaptation and vulnerability literatures in informing place-based management of natural resources.

2019

10.1002/pan3.10056

Imperiale, Angelo Jonas; Vanclay, Frank

From project-based to community-based social impact assessment: New social impact assessment pathways to build community resilience and enhance disaster risk reduction and climate action

CURRENT SOCIOLOGY

Social impact assessment can greatly contribute to sustainable regional and urban planning. However, social impact assessment is used primarily in the context of pre-determined projects, while social impact assessment's role in informing regional and urban plans before projects are even conceived is under-estimated. Moreover, a narrow understanding of the social impacts of projects leads social impact assessment practitioners to consider such impacts as being the outcomes only of the technical characteristics and risks of projects and their implementation, rather than also of broader social, cultural and political-institutional processes. In this article, we reflect on these gaps in social impact assessment. We expand the conceptualization of the social impacts of projects to better consider how social impacts are also influenced by the social dimensions of risk and resilience, and by the knowledge processes and governance strategies that inform and regulate projects. We conceptualize these processes and strategies and design new conceptual models to derive the social impacts of projects. Finally, we reflect on the strategic role social impact assessment can have in enabling social learning and sustainability transformation in localities (i.e. community resilience) and across multiple governance levels (i.e. social resilience). With this article, we contribute to building a key role for social impact assessment in disaster risk reduction, climate action and sustainable development.

2023

10.1177/00113921231203168

Petzold, Jan; Kosanic, Aleksandra; Joseph, Felana Rakoto; Andrianina, Princy Rajaonarivelo; Ranaivosoa-Toandro, Sitraka Mireille; Andriamihaja, Onintsoa Ravaka; Voahanginirina, Leonnie Marcelline; Thien, Lara; Razanajatovo, Mialy

Nature's contributions to human well-being under climate change: Evidence from Central and Eastern Madagascar

PEOPLE AND NATURE

Anthropogenic climate change has an unprecedented impact on ecosystems and their services, with severe consequences for human well-being, particularly for the marginalised and vulnerable members of society in the Global South. The well-being of communities relies not only on material and regulating services ecosystems provide but also on non-material services. In this paper, we unravel the diverse ways that climate change impacts affect Nature's Contributions to People (NCP) and the well-being of rural populations in four sites in Madagascar-a biodiversity hotspot but one of the economically poorest countries in the world. We conducted participatory community workshops, mapping and semi-structured interviews with local residents across social subgroups to understand the mechanisms of climate-related degradation and the resulting impacts on different dimensions of human well-being through an NCP lens. We found that non-material services are generally more often associated with well-being effects. Climate change degrades material and non-material services through sea level rise, biodiversity loss, drought, precipitation and temperature variability, with consequences for materials, companionship and labour, food and feed, and physical and psychological experiences. Loss of land and forests is expressed through ecological grief. The outcome of our research provides evidence-based information to local policymakers, conservation practitioners, and climate change agencies. This information can help improve government efforts toward holistic conservation and climate change adaptation by addressing the impacts on the physical and mental well-being of the most vulnerable communities.

2024

10.1002/pan3.10595

Hamlet, A. F.

Assessing water resources adaptive capacity to climate change impacts in the Pacific Northwest Region of North America

HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES

Climate change impacts in Pacific Northwest Region of North America (PNW) are projected to include increasing temperatures and changes in the seasonality of precipitation (increasing precipitation in winter, decreasing precipitation in summer). Changes in precipitation are also spatially varying, with the northwestern parts of the region generally experiencing greater increases in cool season precipitation than the southeastern parts. These changes in climate are projected to cause loss of snowpack and associated streamflow timing shifts which will increase cool season (October-March) flows and decrease warm season (April-September) flows and water availability. Hydrologic extremes such as the 100 yr flood and extreme low flows are also expected to change, although these impacts are not spatially homogeneous and vary with mid-winter temperatures and other factors. These changes have important implications for natural ecosystems affected by water, and for human systems. The PNW is endowed with extensive water resources infrastructure and well-established and well-funded management agencies responsible for ensuring that water resources objectives (such as water supply, water quality, flood control, hydropower production, environmental services, etc.) are met. Likewise, access to observed hydrological, meteorological, and climatic data and forecasts is in general exceptionally good in the United States and Canada, and is often supported by federally funded programs that ensure that these resources are freely available to water resources practitioners, policy makers, and the general public. Access to these extensive resources support the argument that at a technical level the PNW has high capacity to deal with the potential impacts of natural climate variability on water resources. To the extent that climate change will manifest itself as moderate changes in variability or extremes, we argue that existing water resources infrastructure and institutional arrangements provide a reasonably solid foundation for coping with climate change impacts, and that the mandates of existing water resources policy and water resources management institutions are at least consistent with the fundamental objectives of climate change adaptation. A deeper inquiry into the underlying nature of PNW water resources systems, however, reveals significant and persistent obstacles to climate change adaptation, which will need to be overcome if effective use of the region's extensive water resources management capacity can be brought to bear on this problem. Primary obstacles include assumptions of stationarity as the fundamental basis of water resources system design, entrenched use of historical records as the sole basis for planning, problems related to the relatively short time scale of planning, lack of familiarity with climate science and models, downscaling procedures, and hydrologic models, limited access to climate change scenarios and hydrologic products for specific water systems, and rigid water allocation and water resources operating rules that effectively block adaptive response. Institutional barriers include systematic loss of technical capacity in many water resources agencies following the dam building era, jurisdictional fragmentation affecting response to drought, disconnections between water policy and practice, and entrenched bureaucratic resistance to change in many water management agencies. These factors, combined with a federal agenda to block climate change policy in the US during the Bush administration have (with some exceptions) contributed to widespread institutional gridlock in the PNW over the last decade or so despite a growing awareness of climate change as a significant threat to water management. In the last several years, however, significant progress has been made in surmounting some of these obstacles, and the region's water resources agencies at all levels of governance are making progress in addressing the fundamental challenges inherent in adapting to climate change.

2011

10.5194/hess-15-1427-2011

Stellacci, Stefania; Domingos, Leonor; Resende, Ricardo

Integrated computational approaches for energy retrofit of historical buildings in extreme climate environments

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BUILDING PATHOLOGY AND ADAPTATION

Purpose The purpose of this research is to test the effectiveness of integrating Grasshopper 3D and measuring attractiveness by a categorical based evaluation technique (M-MACBETH) for building energy simulation analysis within a virtual environment. Set of energy retrofitting solutions is evaluated against performance-based criteria (energy consumption, weight and carbon footprint), and considering the preservation of the cultural value of the building, its architectural and spatial configuration. Design/methodology/approach This research addresses the building energy performance analysis before and after the design of retrofitting solutions in extreme climate environments (2030-2100). The proposed model integrates data obtained from an advanced parametric tool (Grasshopper) and a multi-criteria decision analysis (M-MACBETH) to score different energy retrofitting solutions against energy consumption, weight, carbon footprint and impact on architectural configuration. The proposed model is tested for predicting the performance of a traditional timber-framed dwelling in a historic parish in Lisbon. The performance of distinct solutions is compared in digitally simulated climate conditions (design scenarios) considering different criteria weights. Findings This study shows the importance of conducting building energy simulation linking physical and digital environments and then, identifying a set of evaluation criteria in the analysed context. Architects, environmental engineers and urban planners should use computational environment in the development design phase to identify design solutions and compare their expected impact on the building configuration and performance-based behaviour. Research limitations/implications The unavailability of local weather data (EnergyPlus Weather File (EPW) file), the high time-resource effort, and the number/type of the energy retrofit measures tested in this research limit the scope of this study. In energy simulation procedures, the baseline generally covers a period of thirty, ten or five years. In this research, due to the fact that weather data is unavailable in the format required in the simulation process (.EPW file), the input data in the baseline is the average climatic data from EnergyPlus (2022). Additionally, this workflow is time-consuming due to the low interoperability of the software. Grasshopper requires a high-skilled analyst to obtain accurate results. To calculate the values for the energy consumption, i.e. the values of energy per day of simulation, all the values given per hour are manually summed. The values of weight are obtained by calculating the amount of material required (whose dimensions are provided by Grasshopper), while the amount of carbon footprint is calculated per kg of material. Then this set of data is introduced into M-MACBETH. Another relevant limitation is related to the techniques proposed for retrofitting this case study, all based on wood-fibre boards. Practical implications The proposed method for energy simulation and climate change adaptation can be applied to other historic buildings considering different evaluation criteria and context-based priorities. Social implications Context-based adaptation measures of the built environment are necessary for the coming years due to the projected extreme temperature changes following the 2015 Paris Agreement and the 2030 Agenda. Built environments include historical sites that represent irreplaceable cultural legacies and factors of the community's identity to be preserved over time. Originality/value This study shows the importance of conducting building energy simulation using physical and digital environments. Computational environment should be used during the development design phase by architects, engineers and urban planners to rank design solutions against a set of performance criteria and compare the expected impact on the building configuration and performance-based behaviour. This study integrates Grasshopper 3D and M-MACBETH.

2024

10.1108/IJBPA-03-2022-0044

Cai, Wenjia; Zhang, Chi; Zhang, Shihui; Ai, Siqi; Bai, Yuqi; Bao, Junzhe; Chang, Nan; Chen, Bin; Chen, Huiqi; Cheng, Liangliang; Cui, Xueqin; Dai, Hancheng; Danna, Bawuerjiang; Di, Qian; Dong, Wei; Dong, Wenxuan; Dou, Dejing; Fan, Weicheng; Fan, Xing; Fang, Xiaoyi; Gao, Tong; Gao, Yuan; Geng, Yang; Guan, Dabo; Guo, Yafei; Hamilton, Ian; Hu, Yixin; Hua, Junyi; Huang, Cunrui; Huang, Hong; Huang, Jianbin; Jiang, Qiaolei; Jiang, Xiaopeng; Ke, Piyu; Kiesewetter, Gregor; Lampard, Pete; Li, Chuanxi; Li, Ruiqi; Li, Shuangli; Liang, Lu; Lin, Borong; Lin, Hualiang; Liu, Huan; Liu, Qiyong; Liu, Xiaobo; Liu, Xinyuan; Liu, Yufu; Liu, Zhao; Liu, Zhu; Lou, Shuhan; Lu, Chenxi; Luo, Yong; Luo, Zhenyu; Ma, Wei; McGushin, Alice; Niu, Yanlin; Ren, Chao; Ruan, Zengliang; Schoepp, Wolfgang; Shan, Yuli; Su, Jing; Sun, Taochun; Wang, Can; Wang, Qiong; Wen, Sanmei; Xie, Yang; Xiong, Hui; Xu, Bing; Xu, Meng; Yan, Yu; Yang, Jun; Yang, Lianping; Yang, Xiu; Yu, Le; Yue, Yujuan; Zeng, Yiping; Zhang, Jing; Zhang, Shaohui; Zhang, Yao; Zhang, Zhongchen; Zhao, Jiyao; Zhao, Liang; Zhao, Mengzhen; Zhao, Qi; Zhao, Zhe; Zhou, Jingbo; Zhu, Zhenghong; Fu-chun, Margaret Chan Fung; Gong, Peng

Seizing the window of opportunity to mitigate the impact of climate change on the health of Chinese residents

CHINESE SCIENCE BULLETIN-CHINESE

The health threats posed by climate change in China are increasing rapidly. Each province faces different health risks. Without a timely and adequate response, climate change will impact lives and livelihoods at an accelerated rate and even prevent the achievement of the Healthy and Beautiful China initiatives. The 2021 China Report of the Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change is the first annual update of China's Report of the Lancet Countdown. It comprehensively assesses the impact of climate change on the health of Chinese households and the measures China has taken. Invited by the Lancet committee, Tsinghua University led the writing of the report and cooperated with 25 relevant institutions in and outside of China. The report includes 25 indicators within five major areas (climate change impacts, exposures, and vulnerability; adaptation, planning, and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement) and a policy brief. This 2021 China policy brief contains the most urgent and relevant indicators focusing on provincial data: The increasing health risks of climate change in China; mixed progress in responding to climate change. In 2020, the heatwave exposures per person in China increased by 4.51 d compared with the 1986-2005 average, resulting in an estimated 92% increase in heatwave-related deaths. The resulting economic cost of the estimated 14500 heatwave-related deaths in 2020 is US$176 million. Increased temperatures also caused a potential 31.5 billion h in lost work time in 2020, which is equivalent to 1.3% of the work hours of the total national workforce, with resulting economic losses estimated at 1.4% of China's annual gross domestic product. For adaptation efforts, there has been steady progress in local adaptation planning and assessment in 2020, urban green space growth in 2020, and health emergency management in 2019. 12 of 30 provinces reported that they have completed, or were developing, provincial health adaptation plans. Urban green space, which is an important heat adaptation measure, has increased in 18 of 31 provinces in the past decade, and the capacity of China's health emergency management increased in almost all provinces from 2018 to 2019. As a result of China's persistent efforts to clean its energy structure and control air pollution, the premature deaths due to exposure to ambient particulate matter of 2.5 mu m or less (PM2.5) and the resulting costs continue to decline. However, 98% of China's cities still have annual average PM2.5 concentrations that are more than the WHO guideline standard of 10 mu g/m(3). It provides policymakers and the public with up-to-date information on China's response to climate change and improvements in health outcomes and makes the following policy recommendations. (1) Promote systematic thinking in the related departments and strengthen multi-departmental cooperation. Sectors related to climate and development in China should incorporate health perspectives into their policymaking and actions, demonstrating WHO's and President Xi Jinping's so-called health-in-all-policies principle. (2) Include clear goals and timelines for climate-related health impact assessments and health adaptation plans at both the national and the regional levels in the National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for 2035. (3) Strengthen China's climate mitigation actions and ensure that health is included in China's pathway to carbon neutrality. By promoting investments in zero-carbon technologies and reducing fossil fuel subsidies, the current rebounding trend in carbon emissions will be reversed and lead to a healthy, low-carbon future. (4) Increase awareness of the linkages between climate change and health at all levels. Health professionals, the academic community, and traditional and new media should raise the awareness of the public and policymakers on the important linkages between climate change and health.

2023

10.1360/TB-2022-0709

Vahanvati, Mittul; McEvoy, Darryn; Iyer-Raniga, Usha

Inclusive and resilient shelter guide: accounting for the needs of informal settlements in Solomon Islands

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RESILIENCE IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT

PurposeThis paper aims to highlight the localised shelter solutions to fulfil adequate and disaster resilient housing needs of urban informal settlers of Honiara, the capital city of Solomon Islands, in a way that is sensitive to their unique challenges, values and aspirations, is gender- and disability-inclusive, and considers housing from the complete lifecycle of a disaster (pre-, during- and post-). Design/methodology/approachQualitative data was gathered through empirical research through five community workshops at five hotspot settlements, two stakeholder workshops and a stakeholder interview. Semi-structured questions as well as photographs of housing and settlement were used for data collection. With an emphasis on self-recovery, the identified shelter needs were then matched with the roles and responsibilities of the Government to support a process of assisted self-preparedness and recovery. FindingsThe output of the research was the Solomon Islands Shelter Guide. This paper draws from the Guide to present some of the findings. One of the key findings was an emphasis on shelter self-preparedness and self-recovery. However, in order for them to do that, they needed a combination of assistance - technical knowledge, materials and financial support - which is tailored to their settlement's specific needs and based on hazard damage assessment. While the Guide provides one form of the assistance (i.e. technical), this paper is a call for action from the Solomon Islands Government and shelter responders to fulfil the rest of the community needs for shelter adequacy. Research limitations/implicationsThe paper contributes to existing scholarship on shelter after disasters by adding assisted in front of self-recovery, in line with the limited access to resources by the most vulnerable to recover, despite housing being a human right and definition of adequate housing (UN-Habitat, 2015, 2021), which includes freedom of choice, entitlements and meeting minimum adequacy criteria. Practical implicationsThere are many implications of this research. Since the publication of the Shelter Guide, there is excitement among most humanitarian and development agencies, government authorities and the local communities in Honiara. The Guide forms the first step in contributing to identified needs and strengthening community capacities to self-build, self-recover or self-retrofit one's house based on their own choice of materials, design, social and economic circumstance. However, it provides one of the three elements identified as needs by the communities, as i) technical guidance, and a kit-of parts for multi-hazard safe housing, ii) financial and economic assistance and iii) a political voice or being supported and heard by the government. The research team are working with the same five urban informal communities in 2022-2023 to develop and operationalise local disaster plans (in partnership with local non-government organisations), capacity-building activities and translation of the Shelter Guide into technical posters (for local builders) and graphic novel in local pidgin language, as part of the Climate Resilient Honiara project (funded by the United Nations framework convention on climate change (UNFCCC) Adaptation fund and administered by UN-Habitat). In the longer term it would be worth evaluating the practical implications of the Guide or to examine whether the proposed socio-technical and governance guidance will find roots in the local culture. Originality/valueWhile the Guide adhered to internationally agreed concepts of self-recovery, incremental shelter and core space, it contributes to existing scholarship on shelter after disasters by adding assisted in front of self-recovery, in line with housing as a human right and adequate housing (UN-Habitat, 2015, 2021), including freedom of choice, entitlements and meet minimum adequacy criteria, all of which require materials and financial assistance by the relevant in-country authorities.

2023

10.1108/IJDRBE-10-2022-0098

Mechler, Reinhard; Hochrainer, Stefan; Aaheim, Asbjorn; Salen, Hakon; Wreford, Anita

Modelling economic impacts and adaptation to extreme events: Insights from European case studies

MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES FOR GLOBAL CHANGE

Adaptation to climate change in Europe has only recently become a true policy concern with the management of extreme events one priority item. Irrespective of future climatic changes increasing the need for systematic evaluation and management of extremes, weather-related disasters already today pose substantial burdens for households, businesses and governments. Research in the ADAM project identified substantial direct risks in terms of potential crop and asset losses due to combined drought and heatwave, as well as flood hazards in Southern and Eastern Europe, respectively. This paper focuses on the indirect, medium to longer term economic risks triggered by the direct risks and mediated by policy responses. We present a selection of three economic impact and adaptation assessments and modelling studies undertaken on extreme event adaptation in Europe. Responding to a need for more economically based adaptation assessments, we address some relatively unresearched issues such as the understanding of past adaptation, the role of market response to impacts as well as government's ability to plan for and share out extreme event risks. The first analysis undertakes an empirical exploration of observed impacts and adaptation in the agricultural sector in the UK comparing the impact of consecutive extreme events over time in order to determine whether adaptation has occurred in the past and whether this can be used to inform future estimates of adaptation rates. We find that farmers and the agricultural sector clearly have adapted to extreme events over time, but whether this rate can be maintained into the future is unclear, as some autonomous adaptation enacted seemed rather easy to be taken. Markets may mediate or amplify impacts and in the second analysis, we use an economic general equilibrium model to assess the economic effects of a reduction in agricultural production due to drought and heatwave risk in exposed regions in Spain. The analysis suggests that modelled losses to the local economy are more serious in a large-scale scenario when neighbouring provinces are also affected by drought and heatwave events. This is due to the supply-side induced price increase leading to some passing on of disaster costs to consumers. The simulation highlights the importance of paying particular attention to the spatial and distributional effects weather extremes and possibly changes therein induced by climate change may incur. Finally, we discuss how national governments may better plan their disaster liabilities resulting from a need to manage relief and reconstruction activities post event. We do so using a risk based economic planning model assessing the fiscal consequences associated with the coping with natural extremes. We identify large weather-related disaster contingent liabilities, particularly in the key flood hot spot countries Austria, Romania, and Hungary. Such substantial disaster liabilities (hidden disaster deficits) when interacting with weak fiscal conditions may lead to substantial additional stress on government budgets and reduced fiscal space for funding other relevant public investment projects. Overall, our paper suggests the importance of respecting the specific spatial and temporal characteristics of extreme event risk when generating information on adaptation decisions. As our adaptation decisions considered, such as using sovereign risk financing instruments are associated with a rather short time horizon, the analysis largely focuses on the management of today's extreme events and does not discuss in detail projctions of risks into a future with climate change. Such projections raise important issues of uncertainty, which in some instances may actually render future projections non-robust, a constraint to be kept in mind when addressing longer term decisions, which at the same time should account for both climate and also socioeconomic change.

2010

10.1007/s11027-010-9249-7

Perez Bello, Alexis; Mailhot, Alain

Improving the Representation of Historical Climate Precipitation Indices Using Optimal Interpolation Methods

ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN

Defining a reference climate for precipitation is an important requirement in the development of climate change scenarios to support climate adaptation strategies. It is also important for many hydrological and water resource applications. This, however, remains a challenge in regions that are poorly covered by meteorological stations, such as northern Canada or mountainous regions. Reanalyses may represent an interesting option to define a reference climate in such regions. However, these need to be validated and corrected for bias before they can be used. In this paper, two data assimilation methods, Optimal Interpolation (OI) and Ensemble Optimal interpolation (EnOI), were used to combine four reanalysis datasets with observations in order to improve the representation of various precipitation indices across Canada. A total of 986 meteorological stations with minimally 20-year precipitation records over the 30-year reference period (1980-2009) were used. Annual values of ten Climate Precipitations Indices (CPIs) were estimated for each available dataset and were then combined (reanalysis plus observations) using OI and EnOI. A cross-validation strategy was finally applied to assess the relative performance of these datasets. Results suggest that combining reanalysis and observations through OI or EnOI improves CPI estimates at sites where no recorded precipitation is available. The EnOI dataset outperformed OI applied to each reanalysis independently. An evaluation of the gridded interpolated observational dataset from Natural Resources Canada showed it should be used with considerable caution for extreme CPIs because it can underestimate annual maximum 1-day precipitation, as well as overestimate the annual number of wet days.

2020

10.1080/07055900.2020.1800444

Usher, P

Integrating impacts into adaptation measures

ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT

A mechanism has been established to improve integration of international climate-related programmes. Known as the Climate Agenda it outlines a programme, that in a cost-effective way, responds to national obligations to respond to international agreements as well as their national needs for social and economic development. The paper briefly describes the Climate Agenda and the incorporation within it of studies of climate impact assessments and response strategies to reduce vulnerability The need for increased emphasis on climate impact assessment and for the development of effective adaptation measures is emphasised following the elaboration of a Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). UNEP's efforts to identify national programmes contributing to the Climate Agenda are described. The response from developing countries has, however, been very disappointing, even from countries where we know work is ongoing through funding by GEF or US Country Studies Program and other bilateral programmes. Initial compilation of information available so far shows that many developed countries are putting a lot into the area of impact assessment of not just climate change, but also climate variability. There remain some research gaps, especially in the area of assessment of climate impacts on ecosystems, hydrological systems, etc. Considerable efforts are presently being directed at reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases and in the case of developing countries, most efforts are being directed towards completing national communications and providing baseline data for future studies. The paper refers to early activities by UNEP in cooperation with other international organizations to undertake integrated assessments of the impacts of climate change on important socio-economic sectors and the later incorporation of lessons teamed into the IPCC Guidelines for Assessing Impacts of Climate Change. Later sections outline the development of a handbook on methods for climate change impact assessment and adaptation strategies as a practical approach to national assessments and the development of appropriate and cost-effective response to climate change. The initiation of a GEF-funded project to apply the methods contained in the handbook and improve the results based on national studies is also described for both developed and developing countries. Working in collaboration with a team of international experts under the coordination of the Institute of Environmental Studies at Vrije University (Amsterdam), the goal of this ongoing project is to develop a valuable methodological tool that Parties to the UNFCCC may apply to develop national climate change impact and adaptation assessments. Development of these guidelines was linked to a series of country studies in Antigua and Barbuda, Estonia, Cameroon and Pakistan funded under a UNEP/GEF project. The application of the first version of the UNEP Handbook by national study teams in these four countries is making valuable technical and practical contributions and will ensure that the next version of the Handbook will be a more useful tool for experts in developing countries undertaking similar studies in the future. The methods contained in the Handbook are also the basis for similar assessments funded under bilateral development programmes in other countries. These and similar studies elsewhere are coordinated with the UNEP programme and will eventually aim to create reliable and comparable assessments, a compatible set of tools for such purpose and the identification of realistic adaptation options for incorporation into national planning for adapting to climate change. The paper also addresses how climate impact assessment and response strategies are undertaken as part of national enabling activities carried out in co-operation with UNEP.

2000

10.1023/A:1006305832380

Cai, Wenjia; Zhang, Chi; Zhang, Shihui; Bai, Yuqi; Callaghan, Max; Chang, Nan; Chen, Bin; Chen, Huiqi; Cheng, Liangliang; Cui, Xueqin; Dai, Hancheng; Danna, Bawuerjiang; Dong, Wenxuan; Fan, Weicheng; Fang, Xiaoyi; Gao, Tong; Geng, Yang; Guan, Dabo; Hu, Yixin; Hua, Junyi; Huang, Cunrui; Huang, Hong; Huang, Jianbin; Jiang, Linlang; Jiang, Qiaolei; Jiang, Xiaopeng; Jin, Hu; Kiesewetter, Gregor; Liang, Lu; Lin, Borong; Lin, Hualiang; Liu, Huan; Liu, Qiyong; Liu, Tao; Liu, Xiaobo; Liu, Xinyuan; Liu, Zhao; Liu, Zhu; Lou, Shuhan; Lu, Chenxi; Luo, Zhenyu; Meng, Wenjun; Miao, Hui; Ren, Chao; Romanello, Marina; Schoepp, Wolfgang; Su, Jing; Tang, Xu; Wang, Can; Wang, Qiong; Warnecke, Laura; Wen, Sanmei; Winiwarter, Wilfried; Xie, Yang; Xu, Bing; Yan, Yu; Yang, Xiu; Yao, Fanghong; Yu, Le; Yuan, Jiacan; Zeng, Yiping; Zhang, Jing; Zhang, Lu; Zhang, Rui; Zhang, Shangchen; Zhang, Shaohui; Zhao, Mengzhen; Zhao, Qi; Zheng, Dashan; Zhou, Hao; Zhou, Jingbo; Luo, Yong; Gong, Peng

Leveraging climate actions for healthy ageing

CHINESE SCIENCE BULLETIN-CHINESE

As China's population ages rapidly, the health risks associated with a changing climate are becoming more threatening. The 2022 China report of the Lancet Countdown, led by Tsinghua University with the contributions of 73 experts from 23 leading global institutions, tracks progress in climate change and health in China through 27 indicators across five domains: (1) Climate change impacts, exposure, and vulnerability; (2) adaptation, planning, and resilience for health; (3) mitigation actions and health co-benefits; (4) economics and finance; and (5) public and political engagement. This report is the third China Lancet Countdown report, paying particular attention to the impacts on the elderly and highlighting the urgency of taking action. We selected the most urgent and relevant indicators to complete a policy brief that provides a better understanding of recent progress on climate change and health in China. We found heat-related health impacts increased from 2020 to 2021, increasing heat-related mortality, reducing labour capacity, and undermining the capacity to partake in physical activity due to rising temperature. In addition, exposure to wildfire, extreme drought, and extreme rainfall also increased in different regions across China. In 2021, compared with the 1986-2005 average, people in China had an average of 7.85 more heatwave days (which led to an extra 13185 heatwave-related deaths), and a loss of 0.67 more hours of safe outdoor physical exercise per day. The rising temperature also caused the annual average exposure to wildfire to increase by 60.0% between 2017-2021 compared with the 2001-2005 average. Meanwhile, the engagement on health and climate issues from individuals, scholars, and public sectors continues to grow rapidly. From 2020 to 2021, the number of climate-related articles and documents on the official websites of four Chinese Government departments grew by 1.83 times, and the number of climate-and-health-related articles and documents grew by 3.7 times. However, older populations received marginal attention on this issue in media coverage, although they are more vulnerable to the health threats of climate change than younger populations. In most provinces, people aged 65 years and older are facing higher health risks of climate change than the general population. In addition, we found that the inputs and attention to adaptation are still insufficient compared with the increasing health risks posed by climate change. Based on the findings, the following recommendations are made to protect climate change-related health risks: (1) Increasing adaptation across governmental departments and accelerating investment in climate resilience. Adaptation across governmental departments and investment in climate resilience must be substantially increased to protect the health of Chinese populations. (2) Developing a stand-alone Health National Climate Adaptation Plan. Leaders must strengthen the response of local efforts to national plans, for example, by establishing a nationwide heat and cold and health early warning system with regional characteristics. (3) Prioritise climate change in health policies, with a focus on the wellbeing of vulnerable populations. Leaders should include climate change health impact prevention and treatment as one of the key responsibilities of the new National Bureau of Disease Control and Prevention. (4) Accelerating coal reduction and integrating health considerations into China's pathway to carbon neutrality. Leaders must strictly control the capacity of coal-fired power generation and accelerate the pace of coal reduction (especially in the household sector). (5) Promoting renewable energy generation and consumption by redirecting fossil fuel subsidies to China's low-carbon economy. Leaders should keep encouraging renewable energy generation and consumption.

2023

10.1360/TB-2023-0366

Ingram, J. S. I.; Gregory, P. J.; Izac, A. -M.

The role of agronomic research in climate change and food security policy

AGRICULTURE ECOSYSTEMS & ENVIRONMENT

Societal concern is growing about the consequences of climate change for food systems and, in a number of regions. for food security. There is also concern that meeting the rising demand for food is leading to environmental degradation thereby exacerbating factors in part responsible for climate change. and further undermining the food systems upon which food security is based, A major emphasis of climate change/food security research over recent years has addressed the agronomic aspects of climate change, and particularly crop yield. This has provided an excellent foundation for assessments of how climate change may affect crop productivity, but the connectivity between these results and the broader issues of food security at large are relatively poorly explored; too often discussions of food security policy appear to be based on a relatively narrow agronomic perspective. To overcome the limitation of current agronomic research outputs there are several scientific challenges where further agronomic effort is necessary, and where agronomic research results can effectively contribute to the broader issues underlying food security. First is the need to better understand how climate change will affect cropping systems including both direct effects on the crops themselves and indirect effects as a result of changed pest and weed dynamics and altered soil and water conditions. Second is the need to assess technical and policy options for either reducing the deleterious impacts or enhancing the benefits of climate change on cropping systems while minimising further environmental degradation. Third is the need to understand how best to address the information needs of policy makers and report and communicate agronomic research results in a manner that will assist the development of food systems adapted to climate change. There are, however, two important considerations regarding these agronomic research contributions to the food security/climate change debate. The first concerns scale. Agronomic research has traditionally been conducted at plot scale over a growing season or perhaps a few years, but many of the issues related to food security operate at larger spatial and temporal scales. Over the last decade, agronomists have begun to establish trials at landscape scale, but there are a number of methodological challenges to be overcome at such scales. The second concerns the position of crop production (which is a primary focus of agronomic research) in the broader context of food security. Production is clearly important, but food distribution and exchange also determine food availability while access to food and food utilisation are other important components of food security. Therefore, while agronomic research alone cannot address all food security/climate change issues (and hence the balance of investment in research and development for crop production vis vis other aspects of food security needs to be assessed), it will nevertheless continue to have an important role to play: it both improves understanding of the impacts of climate change on crop production and helps to develop adaptation options; and also - and crucially - it improves understanding of the consequences of different adaptation options on further climate forcing. This role can further be strengthened if agronomists work alongside other scientists to develop adaptation options that are not only effective in terms of crop production, but are also environmentally and economically robust, at landscape and regional scales. Furthermore, such integrated approaches to adaptation research are much more likely to address the information need of policy makers. The potential for stronger linkages between the results of agronomic research in the context of climate change and the policy environment will thus be enhanced.

2008

10.1016/j.agee.2008.01.009

Eneji, Chris-Valentine Ogar; Onnoghen, Nkanu Usang; Acha, Joseph Odama; Diwa, Juliana Bebuo

Climate change awareness, environmental education and gender role burdens among rural farmers of Northern Cross River State, Nigeria

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGIES AND MANAGEMENT

Purpose The purpose of this study is to examine the extent of climate change awareness among the rural farmers of Northern Cross River state, investigate the gender role analyzes of some daily routine activities carried out by these rural farmers, ascertain the difference in workload burden of the impacts of climate change between men and women, identify the strategies adopted by these rural farmers to mitigate the effects of climate change in their agricultural activities and investigate the roles Environmental Education (EE) can play in helping the rural farmers to design and adopt sustainable adaptation and mitigation strategies to reduce or completely eradicate their vulnerability to climate change effects. Design/methodology/approach The research design adopted for this study is the cross-sectional survey method. Five research questions guided the study. Two sets of instruments were used for data collection, a sample of 1,258 respondents (0.1%) were selected for the study. The researchers personally administered the instruments and collected the same back, two instruments were not properly filled, so they were rejected. Findings The finding of the study revealed that rural farmers have some level of climate change awareness, which they got from radio, newspapers, awareness campaigns, flyers, billboards, among others. Six out of the nine strategies listed were adopted by the rural farmers to mitigate climate change effects among these rural farmers. There is a significant difference in gender workload burden between women and male in the area, the result is positively skewed toward women, implying that the burden of workload for women increased over those of men. The result also shows that EE can influence their attitude toward climate change through awareness creation, knowledge provisions and also encourage members participation in climate change effect mitigation, prevention and adaptation. Research limitations/implications With this result, EE can be used as a tool for the creation of knowledge, awareness, attitude and encourage the participation of these rural farmers toward mitigating and prevention climate change effects among these rural farmers. It was recommended among others that deliberate policies should be designed to make EE help create the needed awareness on climate change, beginning from the causes, effects and mitigation strategies among rural farmers in their community. Practical implications Already, most Environmental Educators have been trained, the government should design and formulate practical policies to use them as extension agent on climate change effort to go to these rural communities and create the needed awareness, knowledge, skills and attitude to help them combat climate change effects including trees and cover crops planting and also re-introducing the use of irrigation agriculture in these farming communities. Social implications With the creation of awareness, social groups and individuals can also make a social investment from these activities and also improve their social capitals, thereby reducing social burdens and improving their living conditions within the rural settings. Originality/value This research is an original research paper from the effort. the purpose is to assess the extent of climate change awareness level and how the effects of climate change increase or reduces the burden of gender workload among rural farmers and the strategies which can be used by these rural farmers to prevent, mitigate and adapt to climate change effects and the roles EE can play. This study has an original value in the sense that in the course of the study, the study hardly saw articles on these specific variables in whole research, hence the resolve to assess these variables.

2021

10.1108/IJCCSM-06-2020-0070

Courjault-Rade, P; Munoz, M; Hirissou, N

Geological caracterisation of plots belonging to the Gaillac vineyard (Tarn, Midi-Pyrenees) consequences on the determination of Basic Terroir Units (BTU) and the choice of vegetative material

JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL DES SCIENCES DE LA VIGNE ET DU VIN

Detailed geological analyses of plots belonging to the << AOC Gaillac >> area have been carried out in order to adress one of the main natural component ruling the terroir effect process. These plots belong to terraces of the left bank of the Tam river which coincides with one of the three main terroirs of the AOC area. Precisely, the analysed plots are localised on the rissian-aged (approximate to 200 000 yrs B.P.) terrace composed of alluvial shelves crosscut by small valleys where the Oligocen (ca. 28 My) marly molassic basement outcrops. Three different Basic Terroir Units (BTU) have been identified : terrace shelf. terrace slope and comb. Each of them has specific viticultural potentialities related to its topographical, geological and pedological characteristics. Representative profiles have been analysed in each BTU. Field analysis has evidenced that all rocks material have derived from Rissian alluvial deposits due to solifluxion processes when part of the alluvial material deposited on the terrace shelf has slept onto the slope overlying the marly Olicocen molassic basement. This solifluxion phase has taken place during the late-glacial Wurmian climatic oscillations interval (Bollering-Alerod episode ca. 12,000 years BP). Afterwards, during the Holocene period (i.e. the last 10,000 years) the alluvial-derived material has suffered pedolgenetic alteration. The nature of the resulting alterites depends on the initial topographic situation inherited from the late-Wurmian solifluxion phase. On to the terrace shelf the soil sequence begins by a reddish clayey horizon (up to 0, 6m) because of the erosion of the eluvial horizon during the last 10,000 years. It is followed by a thick (= 1 m average) reddish coarse-pebble horizon rich in clays and iron oxydes. On the terrace slope, characteristics luvisols have developped composed by an eluvial silty-sandy horizon (up to 0.60 m) overlying an illuvial pebble-sand level (up to 3m) where clays and ferrous oxydes are moderatly accumulated. Finaly, the thick (> 2m) dark silts and clays sequence (with scattered gravels and small pebbles) of the comb derive from the deposition of eroded soil material of the above terrace shelf and slope units (colluvium). On the basis of the role of high qualitative limiting factor played by the water stress parameter such as quality of drainage, permeability of soils, the down-side slope terrace unit appears as the most appropriate unit because of its slope gradient combined with the occurrence of a thick permeable pebble-sand sequence. Finally, combination of physical and chemical results - acidic pH and very low CEC - permits to recommand the Gravesac rootstock adapted to well-drained acidic soils and Syrah/Fer Servadou climatic-adapted grapevine varieties as the most suitable vegetative material. In addition, the knowledge of the geological component at the scale or the basic units allows for the adaptation of some cultural practices in order to enhance the viticultural potentialities of the plots. In order to encourage the vine's roots to dig deep and reach the sandy-pebbles horizon, two cultural possibilities are proposed: inter-row grassing associated with the << inter-plant >> method or earthing down under the row associated with inter-row ploughing. The choice will depends on the soil erosion amplitude if the inter-row ploughing method is used. The analysis demonstrate the efficiency of detailed geological survey using BTU concept as an operational tool. Further. it enhances that the geological component can be regarded as an amplification point of the terroir system as any alteration even of minor importance - of the geological parameters, may have noticeable consequences on the resulting terroir effect.

2005

Klinge, Michael; Dulamsuren, Choimaa; Erasmi, Stefan; Karger, Dirk Nikolaus; Hauck, Markus

Climate effects on vegetation vitality at the treeline of boreal forests of Mongolia

BIOGEOSCIENCES

In northern Mongolia, at the southern boundary of the Siberian boreal forest belt, the distribution of steppe and forest is generally linked to climate and topography, making this region highly sensitive to climate change and human impact. Detailed investigations on the limiting parameters of forest and steppe in different biomes provide necessary information for paleoenvironmental reconstruction and prognosis of potential landscape change. In this study, remote sensing data and gridded climate data were analyzed in order to identify main distribution patterns of forest and steppe in Mongolia and to detect environmental factors driving forest development. Forest distribution and vegetation vitality derived from the normalized differentiated vegetation index (NDVI) were investigated for the three types of boreal forest present in Mongolia (taiga, subtaiga and forest-steppe), which cover a total area of 73 818 km(2). In addition to the forest type areas, the analysis focused on subunits of forest and nonforested areas at the upper and lower treeline, which represent ecological borders between vegetation types. Climate and NDVI data were analyzed for a reference period of 15 years from 1999 to 2013. The presented approach for treeline delineation by identifying representative sites mostly bridges local forest disturbances like fire or tree cutting. Moreover, this procedure provides a valuable tool to distinguish the potential forested area. The upper treeline generally rises from 1800 m above sea level (a.s.l.) in the northeast to 2700 ma.s.l. in the south. The lower treeline locally emerges at 1000 ma.s.l. in the northern taiga and rises southward to 2500 ma.s.l. The latitudinal gradient of both treelines turns into a longitudinal one on the eastern flank of mountain ranges due to higher aridity caused by rain-shadow effects. Less productive trees in terms of NDVI were identified at both the upper and lower treeline in relation to the respective total boreal forest type area. The mean growing season temperature (MGST) of 7.9-8.9 degrees C and a minimum MGST of 6 degrees C are limiting parameters at the upper treeline but are negligible for the lower treeline. The minimum of the mean annual precipitation (MAP) of 230-290 mm yr(-1) is a limiting parameter at the lower treeline but also at the upper treeline in the forest-steppe ecotone. In general, NDVI and MAP are lower in grassland, and MGST is higher compared to the corresponding boreal forest. One exception occurs at the upper treeline of the subtaiga and taiga, where the alpine vegetation consists of mountain meadow mixed with shrubs. The relation between NDVI and climate data corroborates that more precipitation and higher temperatures generally lead to higher greenness in all ecological subunits. MGST is positively correlated with MAP of the total area of forest-steppe, but this correlation turns negative in the taiga. The limiting factor in the forest-steppe is the relative humidity and in the taiga it is the snow cover distribution. The subtaiga represents an ecological transition zone of approximately 300 mm yr(-1) precipitation, which occurs independently from the MGST. Since the treelines are mainly determined by climatic parameters, the rapid climate change in inner Asia will lead to a spatial relocation of tree communities, treelines and boreal forest types. However, a direct deduction of future tree vitality, forest composition and biomass trends from the recent relationships between NDVI and climate parameters is challenging. Besides human impact, it must consider bio-and geoecological issues like, for example, tree rejuvenation, temporal lag of climate adaptation and disappearing permafrost.

2018

10.5194/bg-15-1319-2018

Dai, Haixia; An, Jingyu; Huang, Cheng; Wang, Hongli; Zhou, Min; Qiao, Liping; Hu, Qingyao; Lou, Shengrong; Yang, Chao; Yan, Rusha; Jiang, Kejun; Zhu, Songli

Roadmap of coordinated control of PM2.5 and ozone in Yangtze River Delta

CHINESE SCIENCE BULLETIN-CHINESE

As dynamic growth engine of the economy of China, the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region is one of the most densely populated regions around the globe with advanced industrial cluster and developed transportation network, which has brought the problem of high intensity of air pollutant emissions including nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), etc. Although PM2.5 air quality tremendously improved in recent years, ozone concentration showed an increasing trend, resulting in air pollution characterized by simultaneous high concentrations of PM2.5 and ozone. According to the 2020 Chinese Ecological and Environment Quality Bulletin issued by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment of China, 46% and 32% of the YRD cities are still above the Chinese air quality standards for PM2.5 and ozone respectively. Thus, coordinated control of PM2.5 and ozone has become the focus of improving air quality within the region. Facing the challenges of both climate change and air pollution, as a leading demonstration area in China, how can the YRD region first achieve the goal of simultaneous mitigating PM2.5 and ozone in the context of coping with climate change? In this study, based on a socio-economic development forecast framework coupled with the high-resolution air pollution emission inventory for the YRD region and the WRF-CMAQ air quality model, we simulated the improvement of regional air quality under different policy scenarios. The results show that the green low-carbon scenario (CP) has higher emission reduction potential than the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and the more progressive scenario of end-of-pipe (EP) control policy, making it an important path in building a beautiful and green Yangtze River Delta in the long term. Under the CP scenario, compared to 2017, it is estimated that SO2, NOx, non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), and primary PM2.5 emissions will decrease by 55.1%, 26.5%, 25.2%, and 27% in 2025; and 66%, 56.4%, 36.1% and 39.4% in 2035. The annual average PM2.5 concentration and the 90th percentile of daily maximum 8-h average ozone concentration (O-3-8 h 90th) in YRD will reach 26 and 129 mu g m(-3), respectively by 2035, with 50% of 41 municipal cities in the region will even meet the standards in WHO IT-2. We show that to continuously improve the regional air quality, nationwide collaborations in the implementation of the strengthened abatement measures are needed in the medium and long-term attempts to simultaneously mitigate PM2.5 and ozone pollution. In the short- and medium-term, the end-of-pipe control scenario driven by the goal of beautiful and green Yangtze River Delta will play an important role in air pollution control. Starting from 2030, low-carbon policies driven by carbon neutral goals are expected to contribute significantly to the further reductions of both PM2.5 and ozone. To summarize, continuous and vigorous abatement in NOx and NMVOCs is the key to mitigate PM2.5 and ozone pollution, and to achieve the current national air quality standard for both PM2.5 and ozone, the NOx and NMVOCs emissions are expected to be reduced at least by 56% and 40% respectively, compared to 2017. The existing end-of-pipe control policy, in combination with other measures, including industrial restructuring, especially for NMVOCs-emission related industries (i.e. , industrial coating, petrochemical, chemical, rubber and plastics, pharmaceuticals), transportation restructuring, as well as the promotion of clean energy vehicles, non-road vehicles and ships are thus important means to the pollution control in the medium and long-term development in YRD region.

2022

10.1360/TB-2021-0774

Silva, Natalia; Mena, Cristobal

Identifying the underlying risk factors of local communities in Chile

DISASTER PREVENTION AND MANAGEMENT

Purpose - The purpose of the instrument is to favour and strengthen, in a timely and relevant manner, the processes of design, planning, investment, execution and evaluation of various public and private initiatives in the territory, thereby strengthening the preventive, responsive and adaptive capacities of the communities, institutions and territory. The instrument allows the generation of a single single-community diagnosis, a definition of a baseline which leads to progress assessment at different levels and provides specific risk management recommendations to municipalities. Design/methodology/approach - The definition of the purpose and design of this tool was the result of the work in a year by a group of national experts from the public, private, organised civil society and academia members of the National Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction. This initial stage has sought to capture the different sectoral visions with a multidimensional approach that considers the territorial differences cautioning that local governments are key actors to achieve risk reduction, and they are also the first respondents and responsible for managing their territory and community. In order to help local governments, to understand their situation, the experts' group established that the assessment should consist of a guided self-diagnosis using a survey. The dimensions considered are as follows: governance, territorial planning, socio-economic and demographic conditions and climate change and natural resources. The four dimensions encompass in total 41 variables that are considered relevant for the disaster risk management discipline. Findings - The rural to semiurban municipalities classified as medium or low development, according to the national standard, present a high-risk level in the dimension of territorial ordering. The municipalities that show a moderate to low dependence on the common municipal fund have a low risk in all the evaluated dimensions, related to greater financial autonomy and own or self-management of resources. The municipalities with low percentage of poverty by income are better evaluated in all the dimensions showing a low level of the Communal Underlying Risk Factors Index (CURFI). A high percentage of communes with a low level of the CURFI have low-urban growth in the last 15 years. Research limitations/implications One of the main difficulties was raising awareness amongst the mayors that the reduction of the underlying factors does not necessarily imply monetary investment, understanding the scarcity of local government resources. The important thing was to sensitise them that the diagnosisper sewas already a result to manage risk in their community. Practical implications - To be able to count for the first time in Chile with a methodology that allows diagnosing risk-based conditions and to target structural and non-structural measures aimed at reducing these factors in local governments. Additionally, it will be possible to monitor the reduction of the underlying risk factors (URF), for accompanying the work of the municipalities in terms of knowing if they have been able to implement the individualised recommendations that are provided. Originality/value - The methodology was formulated by reviewing and considering the methodologies applied in different regions of the world, which generally coincide in the dimensions that group the main underlying factors of disaster risk. However, the numerical treatment of the variables obeys to novel statistical processing (multicriteria method), which provides robustness to the model and, therefore, to the results obtained.

2020

10.1108/DPM-04-2020-0105

Anarde, K. A.; Moore, L. J.; Murray, A. B.; Reeves, I. R. B.

The Future of Developed Barrier Systems: 2. Alongshore Complexities and Emergent Climate Change Dynamics

EARTHS FUTURE

Developed barrier systems (barrier islands and spits) are lowering and narrowing with sea-level rise (SLR) such that habitation will eventually become infeasible or prohibitively expensive for most communities in its current form. Before reaching this state, choices will be made to modify the natural and built environment to reduce relatively short-term risk. These choices will likely vary substantially even along the same developed barrier system as these landscapes are rarely uniformly managed alongshore. Building on the results from a companion paper, here we use a new modeling framework to investigate the complexities in barrier system dynamics that emerge as a function of alongshore variability in management strategies, accelerations in SLR, and changes in storm intensity and frequency. Model results suggest that when connected through alongshore sediment transport, barriers with alongshore variable management strategies-here, the construction of dunes and wide beaches to protect either roadways or communities-evolve differently than they would in the absence of alongshore connections. Shoreline stabilization by communities in one location influences neighboring areas managed solely for roadways, inducing long-term system-wide lags in shoreline retreat. Conversely, when barrier segments managed for roadways are allowed to overwash, this induces shoreline curvature system-wide, thus enhancing erosion on nearby stabilized segments. Feedbacks between dunes, storms, overwash flux, and alongshore sediment transport also affect outcomes of climate adaptation measures. In the case of partial, early abandonment of roadway management, we find that system-wide transitions to less vulnerable landscape states are possible, even under accelerated SLR and increased storminess. Because humans inhabit barrier islands and spits (collectively referred to as barriers) these landscapes, that would otherwise naturally change shape in response to storms and sea-level rise (SLR), are influenced by efforts to protect development with wide beaches and tall dunes. These features interfere with a process called overwash, which transports sand landward during storms, building barrier elevation relative to sea level. Here, we use a new model to better understand how these interactions influence the habitability of barriers over time. Our simulations show that different management decisions made for adjacent coastal segments affect each other in positive and negative ways. When communities nourish beaches, adjacent to segments managed for roadways, some nourished sand reaches the adjacent segments, reducing shoreline erosion there. Conversely, portions of barriers that are managed only for roadways allow some overwash to reach the barrier interior; this negatively affects neighboring communities by enhancing their shoreline erosion rates. We find that early abandonment of dune management along portions of barriers may prevent highly vulnerable future states, such as barrier drowning. As communities explore choices for climate adaptation, our findings reveal the importance of coordination among decision makers in adjacent communities to avoid undesirable outcomes. When management strategies vary alongshore, their effects are coupled via alongshore sediment redistribution, influencing barrier evolution Beach nourishment (along portions of barriers) induces system-wide lags in shoreline retreat, even decades after nourishment practices cease More overwash (due to lower dunes or increased storminess) can prolong habitability, but drives increased nourishment frequency elsewhere

2024

10.1029/2023EF004200

Feliciano, Diana; Recha, John; Ambaw, Gebermedihin; MacSween, Kirsten; Solomon, Dawit; Wollenberg, Eva

Assessment of agricultural emissions, climate change mitigation and adaptation practices in Ethiopia

CLIMATE POLICY

The agricultural sector is a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in Ethiopia, as it is the basis of the economy and the primary source of employment. This study investigated the implementation of mitigation and adaptation practices in smallholder farms in Ethiopia, estimated GHG emissions associated with mitigation practices, and identified potential mitigation options and barriers and enabling factors for implementation. Twenty-five smallholder farmers were selected by a local development agency and interviewed in the field about their land use and land management practices and the Mitigation Options Tool (MOT) was used to estimate GHG emissions, to identify mitigation options and co-benefits, and as a platform for promoting learning and knowledge exchange across different types of stakeholders. All farmers interviewed in the field acknowledged changes in the climate, but only some were implementing adaptation practices to cope with such changes, namely, crop rotations, planting new crop types, and the early sowing of crops. Fewer mitigation practices were implemented, namely reduced tillage and application of manure in cereal crops and potatoes. These practices were mainly implemented because of their benefits for soil conservation (e.g. fertility, soil water holding capacity, yield stabilization, erosion avoidance) rather than for mitigation (carbon sequestration) purposes. Greenhouse gas emissions from the application of synthetic fertilizer to crops, and from livestock production varied widely across farmers depending on the amount of fertilizer applied and the number and type of livestock raised. Tenancy rights and extension services were identified as potential enablers of the adoption of climate change mitigation and adaptation practices by smallholder farmers in Ethiopia, and competing uses for straw was a potential barrier for the incorporation of residues in the soil. Barriers and enabling factors should be assessed thoroughly through further engagement with farmers as well as data on the amount of organic matter added to the soil, as these practices have co-benefits in terms of soil conservation, which are especially relevant for climate change adaptation in semi-dry climates. The MOT could be used in the future as a facilitator for knowledge exchange between researchers and practitioners in Ethiopia, and in other developing countries where data availability is low, to support the identification of effective climate change mitigation and adaptation actions. Key policy insights Climate change mitigation practices in agriculture can provide co-benefits for adaptation and food security, including the stabilization of crop yields, especially in semi-dry climates; more evidence about these co-benefits is needed. The systematic collection of data on manure and crop residues should be supported as a priority as well as the identification of implementation barriers for mitigation and adaptation practices. Smallholder farmers need to be engaged throughout any assessment of climate change mitigation potential to raise awareness, identify co-benefits of possible actions, and to identify and address barriers for implementation. Tenancy rights and extension services are potential enabling factors for the adoption of climate change mitigation and adaptation measures by smallholder farmers in Ethiopia. In developing countries, user-friendly tools such as the MOT can promote learning and knowledge exchange across diverse stakeholder groups about the impact of land use and management options on climate change mitigation and adaptation.

2022

10.1080/14693062.2022.2028597

Martini, Camille

From Fact to Applicable Law: What Role for the International Climate Change Regime in Investor-State Arbitration?

CANADIAN YEARBOOK OF INTERNATIONAL LAW

While many investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) proceedings based on international investment agreements have dealt, directly or incidentally, with environmental issues, state measures relating to the mitigation and adaptation to climate change have been subject to a small number of reported cases. This article demonstrates that there is a significant gap between the number of investor-state disputes having a direct relevance with climate change, on the one hand, and the number of such cases that have actually raised climate change as a material legal or factual issue. In addition, arbitral tribunals faced with disputes related to measures or sectors that are of direct relevance to climate action have, to date, virtually never engaged in any sort of substantial analysis of international climate change treaties and related instruments, rules, or practices. Against this backdrop, this article will explore ways for arbitrators and parties to ISDS proceedings to better consider the climate regime - in particular, the Paris Agreement and instruments arising therefrom - in ISDS proceedings beyond its current limited role as an element of context. While the literature has mostly focused on integrating climate change concerns in ISDS, this article goes further by exploring how states' international climate obligations could play a greater role in the adjudication of investor-state disputes, including by providing states with a justification for implementing more ambitious regulations as well as tribunals with guidance for interpreting substantive obligations in investment treaties.

2024

10.1017/cyl.2024.2

Saha, Senjuti; Hazra, Somnath; Ghosh, Tuhin

How embankment influences coastal livelihood in the context of climate adaptation - a case study of Indian Sundarban Delta

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RESILIENCE IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT

Purpose The decision of livelihood based on the embankment characters is essentially multivariate. Making an effort to do the bivariate modelling may eliminate the useful socio-economic information in the interdependent and simultaneous adaptation choices (Dorfman, 1996). Hence, the more appropriate method is multiple-choice decisions to livelihood adoption based on the embankment category. The purpose of this study is to find out whether the inhabitants of Sundarban really consider embankment as their lifeline, what they think about its sustainability and what the outer world thinks about the embankment. Design/methodology/approach To analyse this study, the multinomial logit (MNL) model has been used. This model gives a platform to study the influence of the factors on livelihood choice decisions. In this MNL model, the livelihood decisions are categorized based on their primary livelihood status at the survey. Thus, the choice of livelihood among individuals is explained in terms of the livelihood and the household characteristics. Findings This result can possibly explain the fact that increasing population or man power and increasing annual income and protection from embankment failure may reduce the need to choose any other form of economy apart from the indigenous one, as the society is dominated by farmers who own very small plots of land and face consequences like crop failure every year because of natural calamities. A unit increase in annual income would result in a 0.53% decrease in the probability of choosing labourer as occupation and 0.57% decrease in the probability of choosing fishing/meen collection as occupation. Research limitations/implications The district is vast enough, and it is difficult to study all the blocks. Initially, nine blocks were identified as affected blocks from various literature reviews. Those blocks are Sagar, Patharpratima, Kultali, Gosaba, Kakdwip, Canning I, Canning II, Namkhana and Basanti. Pilot surveys were done to all those nine blocks identified above. After such a long and rigorous procedure, blocks were verified from available secondary data. Villages from vulnerable and less vulnerable parts of the later mentioned blocks are picked up as purposive sample, and household surveys are done on the basis of random sampling. Social implications If the year of schooling is enhanced, then the tertiary sector gets benefited, but the indigenous society of Sundarban cannot depend on such a sector as the scope for development is very limited. Consequently, policies aiming at promoting adaptation to challenged livelihood need to emphasize the crucial role of providing basic needs for better production techniques; and more investment in this sector will surely enable villagers to adapt cultivation following age-old tradition. Originality/value The study uses the MNL model to investigate the factors guiding household choices of different occupational adaptation methods, and cultivation is found to be the automatic choice for the inhabitants of Sundarban. Cultivation is impossible without embankment. Thus, the embankment in Sundarban is considered, as lifeline is established. So it can be said that livelihood in this region depends on the stability of embankment. This age-old structure is susceptible to vulnerability because of its unscientific construction and improper maintenance. The main objective of this study is to find out whether the inhabitants of Sundarban really consider embankment as their lifeline, what they think about its sustainability and what the outer world thinks about the embankment.

2022

10.1108/IJDRBE-08-2021-0119

Wu Jia; Zhou Bo-Tao; Xu Ying

Response of precipitation and its extremes over China to warming: CMIP5 simulation and projection

CHINESE JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICS-CHINESE EDITION

The relationship between regional precipitation change and warming is an important open issue in climate change physical science. Because precipitation in China has strong sensitivity to warming, quantitative assessment and projection on the responses of precipitation and its extremes in a warming world are crucial for better understanding of regional climate change and helpful for regional adaption to climate change. For this reason, based on simulations of 24 models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), this study assesses the ability of the models in simulating the responses of annual mean precipitation and its extremes to warming over China and its subregions, and then projects their change under the RCP4. 5 and RCP8. 5 scenarios that represent respectively a medium-low and high radiative forcing. The annual mean precipitation is defined as the total amount of precipitation from January to December. The precipitation extremes are measured by the R95p (very wet days) and R99p (extremely wet days) indices, which are defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). According to the definition of ETCCDI, the R95p and R99p refer to annual total precipitation when the daily precipitation exceeds the 95th and the 99th percentile of the wet day precipitation, respectively. Eight subregions determined by administrative boundaries and societal and geographical conditions, i. e., NEC(Northeast China), NC(North China), EC (East China), CC (Central China), SC (South China), SWC1 (Tibetan Plateau), SWC2(Southwest China), and NWC(Northwest China), are used in this study. The model performance is validated through the comparison for the time period from 1961 to 2005 between the historical simulation and the gridding observation dataset with a horizontal resolution of 0. 25 degrees X 0. 25 degrees in latitude and longitude. Quantitative analysis shows that the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble (MME) can generally capture the spatial features of the temperature, mean precipitation and precipitation extremes as well as the relationship of precipitation and its extremes with temperature over China. However, it underestimates the response of mean precipitation while overestimates the response of precipitation extremes over China region in historical period. The CMIP5 MME also has some abilities in reproducing the responses of the mean precipitation and its extremes to the warming over the subregions of China, and better performance can be found for the precipitation extremes. Under the RCP4. 5 and RCP8. 5 scenarios, concurrent with the temperature rising, the mean precipitation and precipitation extremes are projected to increase consistently over China. As the regional mean temperature rises by 1 degrees C, the mean precipitation will increase by 3. 5% and 2. 4%, and the R95p will increase by 8. 0% and 11., respectively. The response of R99p is much more sensitive, respectively with an increase of 15. 3% and 21. 6%. For the subregions of China, they all show positive response and the regional difference will decrease in the future. Moreover, the sensitivity of the precipitation extremes to the warming is higher than that of the mean precipitation. The stronger the precipitation extreme is, the higher sensitivity it will have. Besides, the response of the mean precipitation to the warming is larger in Northern China than in Southern China. The largest increases in R95p and R99p are projected in the Tibetan Plateau and Southwest China, indicating an increasing risk of heavy rainfall and floods.

2015

10.6038/cjg20150903

Wang, Qianzhi; Liu, Kai; Wang, Ming; Koks, Elco; Wang, Haizhong

Exposure of Global Rail and Road Infrastructures in Future Record-Breaking Climate Extremes

EARTHS FUTURE

Transport infrastructures built on historical experience are expected to face multiple threats under climate change, especially the continuous interruptive losses and additional maintenance costs caused by more intense or frequent record-breaking extreme climate events. In this study, we investigated the change in the exposure of global rail and road infrastructures to eight record-breaking meteorological hazards using the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate data, including extreme temperature and extreme precipitation. Our findings suggest that higher extreme heat and increasing thaw-freezing index ratio pose great threats to global rail and road infrastructures. The expected annual exposures of these two hazards are 4 and 2 times the average exposure level of eight hazards, respectively. Moreover, the exposure rapidly increases due to sharply increasing drought and heavy rain compound events as emissions growth and development accelerate, rising from 7% to 18% in eight hazard exposures. Sustainable and lower radiative forcing pathways would contribute to the exposure mitigation, with the peak exposure of eight hazards under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP1-2.6 scenarios averaging 29% and 52% lower, respectively, than that under the SSP3-7.0, which is an extreme scenario we may be on track for under current global efforts. However, the fact that most areas will still be affected by multiple hazards is probably unavoidable. Thus, in parallel with global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, we recommend that the transport sector incorporate locally appropriate climate change adaptation strategies to avoid losses induced by record-breaking extreme climate events. Transport infrastructure has a notably long service life. Nevertheless, infrastructure designed based on historical experience may be vulnerable to record-breaking extreme weather events. It should be noted, however, that different regions are likely to face distinct types of challenges. In this study, we investigated the probability of record-breaking climate extremes associated with eight types of hazards that have direct implications for transportation infrastructure, and we identified the primary challenges confronting railways and highways in diverse regions throughout the world. Our findings indicated that global extreme heat and permafrost thawing pose particularly severe threats. Furthermore, there is an increased risk of heavy rain events occurring in dry months, especially in the late-21st century under the scenarios of rapid development and high radiative forcing, and more infrastructure is expected to be impacted. We also showed that it is possible to reduce the exposure of global infrastructures by 29%-52% by pursuing more sustainable and lower radiative forcing development pathways. However, the fact that most areas will still be affected by multiple hazards is probably unavoidable. In addition to the existing global climate adaptation actions, the transportation infrastructure sector should also develop appropriate local climate change adaptation strategies to mitigate additional losses. Globally, future exposure to record-breaking extreme temperature is higher than that to record-breaking extreme precipitation, especially extreme heatGlobal rail and road infrastructures will be exposed to more frequent drought and heavy rain compound events, which were less noticed beforeRapidly developing and high-emission scenarios will lead to rapid non-linear exposure increases in the mid-to-late 21st century

2024

10.1029/2023EF003632

Tian, Zhan; Wu, Wenxian; Liu, Junguo; Sun, Laixiang

A review of decision-making methods for climate change adaptation under deep uncertainty: With a focus on flooding control in coastal cities

CHINESE SCIENCE BULLETIN-CHINESE

Robust decision-making for climate change adaptation under deep uncertainty is a common challenge faced by policymakers and scientists in the world. In recent years, the limitations of risk assessment and adaptation planning based on the prediction results of climate models have become increasingly acknowledged. The uncertainties embodied in the model specifications, model parameterizations, prediction results, decision implementation process, and context changes bring significant risks to decision-making far beyond the general recognition of uncertainty drawn from historical data. Such combined and future-looking uncertainty is termed deep uncertainty. Researchers have applied robust decision-making (RDM) theory, adaptation pathways (AP) method, and engineering options analysis (EOA) method to climate change adaptation decision-making research. These theories and techniques can help scientists and policy makers to couple systematic analysis with thoughtful deliberation, typically in coordination with stakeholders, to consider the implications of choices under likely and unlikely future conditions, and thus to better grasp the impact of deep uncertainty on climate change decision-making. The literature on RDM, AP, and EOA is huge and in this review paper, we focus on their advancements and applications in the field of coastal flood control, and review the main strengths and interconnections of these three methods. The RDM method combines the traditional control theory with modern management decision-making theory, focuses on future scenario generation, cost-benefit comparisons of multiple adaptation measures under different future scenarios, and conducts the comparative static screening of the large numbers of scenarios-adaptation measure combinations. The AP method pays more attention to the most plausible scenario-adaptation measure combinations as time goes towards the future, rather than giving the full consideration of all future scenarios, and promotes the consideration of solutions that are adaptable through time. The EOA method is based on the framework of the AP method, with a focus on the specific engineering design. As a consequence, it may lack consideration for larger-scale application and implications. This paper considers how these three methods can be integrated to serve the decision-making process which is characterized by multiple decision goals, large number of plausible future scenarios, and large number of feasible mitigation and adaptation measures. A demonstrative case study of Shanghai is presented for this purpose. This case study proposes a framework to serve the mission of dynamic adaptation planning and engineering designs by combining the strengths of RDM, AP and EOA. We expect that the integration can help researchers to identify low-regret and even no-regret solutions that are beneficial over a broad set of potential future situations. Because the integration must depend on the continuous and effective dialogues among scientists, policymakers, local experts, and other stakeholders, it is bound to be a co-production process of the decision-making knowledge and such a process has the potential to improve public confidence on the proposed policies and solutions. Finally, we argue that the integrated application of these three methods and the process of knowledge co-creation in the integration process are the key direction for future development in the field of climate change adaptation decision-making under the context of deep uncertainty.

2022

10.1360/TB-2021-1218

Cattivelli, Valentina

Climate Adaptation Strategies and Associated Governance Structures in Mountain Areas. The Case of the Alpine Regions

SUSTAINABILITY

Adaptation to climate change raises important governance issues in terms of governance structures and mechanisms, stakeholders' involvement, and links with the existing and wider-scale strategies. Notwithstanding the increasing attention at the global and European level, precise recommendations for the governance of climate change at the geographical macro-regional level are still lacking. Macro-regions span several states with some common morphological or climatic features and adopt wider-scale strategies which are not mandatory or do not take sufficient account of the specificities of any included regions. Each region is differently administered and adopts specific climate adaptation strategies for addressing just the challenges of the territories they govern, without considering the effects on the neighbouring ones. They also decentralize the climate policies towards the lowest levels of government, and this has increased the number of local bodies involved and promoted the participation of non-governmental players and citizens. Within the macro-regions, local climate conditions and their changes can be similar; however, their impacts can vary significantly at the individual territory level, and their effects can extend beyond traditional administrative boundaries. Dealing with these changes is particularly challenging in the Alpine area, which extends across 48 regions/autonomous provinces belonging to eight different European countries and is governed by three different international/transnational strategies. This territory represents a fragile ecosystem due to the current climate changes, which have influenced the climate conditions differently at the local level, as well as the richness of natural resources, and the opportunity to exploit them for economic reasons. South Tyrol (IT) is one of the autonomous provinces located in this area that is currently addressing the expected and unexpected impacts of climate change. Unlike other Italian Alpine regions, this region boasts a wider legislative autonomy, which enables the creation of more targeted climate adaptation policies and their decentralisation to the lowest level of administration, including the non-governmental players and citizens. As a result, the climate adaptation governance framework appears complex and hard to govern due to the plurality of actors and governmental levels at Alpine and regional/provincial levels. The present article sheds light on this framework, analysing specifically the three above-mentioned governance issues: governance structures, stakeholders' involvement mechanisms, and links with the existing wider-scales strategies. While discussing these topics, it then refers specifically to South Tyrol for the case study. Based on the documental analysis of the climate adaptation strategies and resultant findings, the preferred governance mechanism for addressing the specific climate adaptation challenges of Alpine regions would involve adopting some of the regulations included in regional mono-sectoral plans. These regulations do not relate to wider-scale strategies at the macro-regional level and refer just to the administered territories. The participation of local institutions and citizens in defining and implementing these regulations is limited and not incentivized. Although important, interactions across Alpine, national, and sub-national policy domains are limited. These limitations are revealed in South Tyrol and partially also in other European Alpine regions.

2021

10.3390/su13052810

Feng, Zhe; Chen, Xiaodong; Leung, L. Ruby

How Might the May 2015 Flood in the US Southern Great Plains Induced by Clustered MCSs Unfold in the Future?

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES

The historic 22-26 May 2015 flood event in Texas and Oklahoma was caused by anomalous clustered mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) that produced record-breaking rainfall and $3 billion of damage in the region. A month-long regional convection-permitting simulation is conducted to reconstruct multiple clustered MCSs that lead to this flood event. We further use the pseudo global warming approach to examine how a similar event may unfold in a warmer climate and the driving physical factors for the changes. Tracking of MCSs in observations and simulations shows that the historical simulation reproduces the salient characteristics of the observed MCSs. In a warmer climate under a high-emission (SSP5-8.5) scenario, the Southern Great Plains is projected to experience a near surface warming of 4-6 K, accompanied by enhanced moisture transport by the strengthened Great Plains low-level jet. A warmer and moister lower troposphere leads to 36%-59% larger convective available potential energy, supporting wider and more intense convective updrafts and rainfall production. Consistently, MCSs have wider convective areas and stronger rainfall intensities, producing 50% larger rain volumes during the mature stage. Extreme (99.5%) MCS rainfall frequency and amount will increase by threefold. However, MCS stratiform rain area decreases as a result of elevated stratiform cloud bases that lead to stronger sublimation and evaporation of precipitation in response to warming, resulting in reduced weak-to-moderate surface precipitation. Results suggest that global warming greatly increases precipitation intensity of clustered MCS events under strong synoptic influence, with much higher potential to produce serious floods without additional climate adaptation. Changes in extreme rainfall produced by thunderstorms in a warmer climate have significant implications to society. However, their projections are highly uncertain due to the inability of the coarse-resolution global climate models to simulate key processes in thunderstorms. Here, we use a kilometer-scale regional model to examine how the record-breaking May 2015 flood event in Texas and Oklahoma may unfold in a warmer climate. By tracking the organized thunderstorms that produced extreme rainfall in observations and simulations, we found that the model reproduced many key characteristics of the observed storms. In a warmer climate where the Great Plains warm by 4-6 K (a low-climate-mitigation scenario), these storms produce 50% more total rainfall and the extreme precipitation increase by threefold as a result of the warmer atmosphere that contain more moisture and larger convective instability. A sharpening of the storm is found where wider and stronger convective vertical motions produce more heavy rainfall while areas with weaker rainfall decrease. These results suggest if similar events were to occur in a warmer climate, the probability of more severe flash flooding may increase. Current flood control and mitigation strategies may need to adapt to the possible strengthening of organized thunderstorms in future climate. The historic flood-producing mesoscale convective systems are reproduced in simulations to examine their changes in a warmer climate Warming strengthens the Great Plains low-level jet to transport warmer and more unstable air that fuels stronger convective storms Storm systems have wider and stronger updrafts, producing a threefold increase in extreme precipitation frequency with warming

2024

10.1029/2023JD039605

Shahbaz Farooq, Muhammad; Gyilbag, Amatus; Virk, Ahmad Latif; Xu, Yinlong

Adaptability Mechanisms of Japonica Rice Based on the Comparative Temperature Conditions of Harbin and Qiqihar, Heilongjiang Province of Northeast China

AGRONOMY-BASEL

Japonica rice has been considerably impacted from climate change, mainly regarding temperature variations. Adjusting the crop management practices based on the assessment of adaptability mechanisms to take full advantage of climate resources during the growing season is an important technique for japonica rice adaptation to climate changed conditions. Research based on the adaptability mechanisms of japonica rice to temperature and other environmental variables has theoretical and practical significance to constitute a theoretical foundation for sustainable japonica rice production system. A contrived study was arranged with method of replacing time with space having four different japonica cultivars namely Longdao-18, Longdao-21, Longjing-21, and Suijing-18, and carried out in Harbin and Qiqihar during the years 2017-2019 to confer with the adaptability mechanisms in terms of growth, yield and quality. The formation of the grain-filling material for superior and inferior grains was mainly in the middle phase which shared nearly 60% of whole grain-filling process. Maximum yield was noticed in Longdao-18 at Harbin and Qiqihar which was 9500 and 13,250 kg/ha, respectively. The yield contributing components fertile tillers, number of grains per panicle, and 1000-grain weight were higher at Qiqihar; therefore, there was more potential to get higher yield. The data for grain-filling components demonstrated that the filling intensity and duration at Qiqihar was contributive to increase the grain yield, whereas the limiting agents to limit yield at Harbin were the dry weights of inferior grains. The varietal differences in duration and time of day of anthesis were small. Across all cultivars and both study sites, nearly 85% of the variation of the maximum time of anthesis could be justified with mean atmospheric temperature especially mean minimum temperature. Mean onset of anthesis was earliest in Longdao-21 at Harbin, whereas it was latest in Longdao-18 at Qiqihar. The maximum time to end anthesis and the longest duration of anthesis were taken by Longdao-18, i.e., 9.0 hasr and 4.2 h, respectively. Chalkiness and brown rice percentages were elevated at Qiqihar showing Harbin produced good quality rice. This study investigated the adaptability mechanisms of japonica rice under varying temperature conditions to distinguish the stress tolerance features for future sustainability and profitability in NEC. It was concluded that there is an adaptive value for anthesis especially regarding T-min and, moreover, earlier transplantation may produce tall plants. The results demonstrated that high temperature at the onset of anthesis at the start of the day enhanced the escape from high temperature later during the day. Early transplantation is recommended in NEC because earlier anthesis during humid days rendered for potential escape from high ambient temperature later during that day. Temperature influenced japonica rice significantly and coherently, whereas the influence of growing season precipitation was not significant. Daily mean sunshine influenced the japonica rice significantly, but the impact was less spatially coherent. The results foregrounded the response of the japonica rice to external driving factors focusing climate, but ignored socioeconomic suggesting emphasis on both driving factors to target future research and render important insights into how japonica rice can adapt in mid-high-latitude regions.

2021

10.3390/agronomy11112367

Pradhan, Aliza; Chan, Catherine; Roul, Pravat Kumar; Halbrendt, Jacqueline; Sipes, Brent

Potential of conservation agriculture (CA) for climate change adaptation and food security under rainfed uplands of India: A transdisciplinary approach

AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS

Rainfed agro-ecosystems, the purported grey patches untouched by the Green Revolution or most technological advances, occupy a prominent position in Indian agriculture. Cropping intensities and crop yields are low and unstable in these areas due to unpredictable patterns of rainfall, a host of biotic and abiotic stresses and adherence to traditional farm practices. This precarious food security situation is especially dangerous in the central Indian tribal belt (also known as the poverty belt) which is a typical rainfed area dominated by tribal communities. More than 90% of the tribal people are totally dependent on agriculture and produce much of what they eat. Small land holdings and their low productivity, along with uncertainties in rainfall patterns, increases economic and social risks for these farmers. With degraded soils and unreliable weather patterns, return on investment is uncertain and likely to be much lower overall than under irrigated conditions with better soils. Under such conditions, one approach to achieve improved crop production is to minimize soil and other natural resource degradation by adopting a set of crop-nutrient-water-land system management practices, such as conservation agriculture (CA). To assess the effect of introduced technology under local ecological and socio-economic conditions, the study focused on two ecosystem services: a) provisional, and b) regulatory through five treatments consisting of farmers' traditional practice (FP) which was conventional tillage with broadcast of local variety maize (Zea mays L); and four CA treatments viz., conventional tillage with sole cropped maize using line sowing of the improved maize cultivar 'Nilesh' (CT-M); conventional tillage with maize intercropped with the improved cowpea (Vig na unguiculata L cultivar 'Hariyalli Bush') (CT-M + C); reduced tillage with sole cropped maize (MT-M); and reduced tillage with maize + cowpea (MT-M + C). After harvest of maize and cowpea, mustard was planted as a post rainy season crop and all the mustard plant residues were returned to their respective plots as residue cover except FP. Under provisional ecosystem services, performance of CA on crop yield, and profitability was assessed through maize equivalent yield and partial budget analysis, respectively. Results showed that reduced tillage combined with maize-cowpea intercropping (MT-M + C) followed by mustard residue retention had higher system productivity and net benefits, an increase of 200% and 230%, respectively over FP. Under regulatory ecosystem services, the soil quality was assessed through calculation of soil quality index (SQI) which was highest under MT-M + C followed by mustard residue retention and lowest under farmers' practices. In terms of CA treatment preference, 35% of the farmers indicated a strong preference for MT-M + C compared to 14% for FP. Combined, these results clearly demonstrate the potential of CA to simultaneously increase yield, diversify crop production and improve soil quality which should support a move towards sustainable intensification of crop production to improve future household income and food security. Additionally, using a transdisciplinary approach fully engaged all stakeholders in co-designing the CA treatments appropriate for the farmers and local environmental conditions leading to significant impacts on economic livelihoods, environmental sustainability and food security.

2018

10.1016/j.agsy.2017.01.002

Zhou, Guangsheng; Zhou, Li

Ecological meteorology: Origin, concept, and prospects

CHINESE SCIENCE BULLETIN-CHINESE

Ecological meteorology is an emerging earth science subject in response to the current environmental crisis and has become a secondary subject of atmospheric sciences. It encompasses meteorological science and technological support for national ecological civilization construction, especially national environmental protection and sustainable development. Accelerating ecological meteorology monitoring and research and establishing an operational brand is critical. The origin, concept, and primary research areas of ecological meteorology are hereby reviewed. Ecological meteorology studies the relationship between ecosystem and meteorological conditions (the core of multiple earth system sphere interactions) and serves the harmonious development of humans and nature. It includes six main aspects: (1) The patterns and laws of meteorologically induced ecosystem types and their geographical distribution; (2) the measurement of ecosystem temporal and spatial changes due to variable meteorological conditions; (3) the meteorological contribution and attribution analyses to ecological changes; (4) the feedback of ecosystem changes to the earth system; (5) the numerical modeling of ecological meteorology; (6) the interaction between meteorological conditions and ecosystems, and the principles that promote the harmonious development of humans and Nature. Compared with ecology and meteorology, ecological meteorology research has the following characteristics: (1) The time scale ranges from seconds to millennia; (2) the spatial scale ranges from the stomatal scale to the global scale; (3) the driving forces include weather, climate, atmospheric composition, climate change, and ecological and environmental changes; (4) the content emphasizes multiple earth system sphere interactions and disaster risk management; (5) the methods and technologies focus on satellite-ground integration monitoring systems and data-model fusion analyses; (6) the goal is to understand the relationship between humans and nature based on the sustainable development of the earth system. Ecological meteorology observations come from typical ecosystem research stations and regional-scale field investigations, and the operational services include assessing the ecological carrying capacity of climate resources and monitoring, evaluating, and warning for ecological meteorology disasters. This paper explains the relationship between ecological meteorology and ecological civilization construction, disaster prevention and mitigation, and how to address climate change. The primary and urgent ecological meteorology research tasks are extracting relevant information for analysis using big data and artificial intelligence, investigating ecosystem adaptations to climate change and their change attributions, exploring an ecosystem's main meteorological disaster processes and critical meteorological conditions, analyzing the eco-physiological mechanisms of key terrestrial ecosystem phenological periods and developing simulation models of them based on multiple environmental factors, developing an eco-meteorological numerical model coupling the biological, physical, and chemical, management processes, and understanding how terrestrial ecosystem changes and sustainable development countermeasures affect the climate system. Ecological meteorology is a new and promising field that is expected to provide valuable information for the future.

2021

10.1360/TB-2020-1274

Ziaja, Sonya

How Algorithm-Assisted Decision Making Is Influencing Environmental Law and Climate Adaptation

ECOLOGY LAW QUARTERLY

embody bias and hidden values that affect equity and democracy. In effect, algorithm-based tools are new fora for law and policymaking, distinct from legislatures and courts. In turn, these tools influence the development and implementation of environmental law and regulation. As a practical matter, there is a pressing need to understand how these automated decision-making tools interact with and influence law and policy. This Article begins this timely and critical discussion. Though algorithmic decision making has been critiqued in other domains like policing and housing policy, climate change makes algorithms in environmental and energy policy distinct. Expectations of climatic stationarity-for example, how frequently or severely a coastal area floods or how many days of extreme heat an energy system needs to anticipate-are no longer valid. Algorithm-based tools are necessary to make sense of possible future scenarios in an unstable climate. Yet, dependence on these tools brings with it a conflict between technocracy (and the need to rapidly adapt and respond to climate change) and democratic participation, which is fundamental to equity. This Article discusses sources of that tension within algorithm-based tools and offers a pathway forward to integrate values of equity and democratic participation into these tools. After introducing the challenge of adapting water and energy systems to climate change, this Article synthesizes prior multidisciplinary work on algorithmic decision making and modeling-informed governance-bringing together the works of early climate scientists and contemporary leaders in algorithmic decision making. From this synthesis, this Article presents a framework for analyzing how well these tools integrate principles of equity, including procedural and substantive fairness-both of which are essential to democracy. The framework evaluates how the tools handle uncertainty, transparency, and stakeholder collaboration across two attributes. The first attribute has to do with the model itself-specifically, how and whether existing law and policy are incorporated into these tools. These social parameters can be incorporated as inputs to the model or in the structure of the model, which determines its logic. The second attribute has to do with the modeling process-how and whether stakeholders and end-users collaborated in the model's development. The Article then applies this framework and compares two algorithm-assisted decision-making tools currently in use for adapting water and energy systems to climate change. The first tool is called INFORM. It is used to allocate water quantity and flow on the Sacramento River, while taking climate and weather into account. The second tool is called RESOLVE. It is used by energy utility regulators in California to evaluate scenarios for energy generation. Although the development of both tools involved collaborative processes, there are meaningful distinctions in the history of their development and use. The comparisons indicate that how law and policy are incorporated into the underlying code of models influences the development and regulation of climate adaptation, while inclusiveness and collaboration during the model's development influences the model's perceived usefulness and adoption. Both conclusions have implications for equity and accessibility of environmental, natural resource, and energy planning.

2021

10.15779/Z38086363B

Al-Zubari, Waleed K.; El-Sadek, Alaa A.; Al-Aradi, Mohamed J.; Al-Mahal, Hameed A.

Impacts of climate change on the municipal water management system in the Kingdom of Bahrain: Vulnerability assessment and adaptation options

CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT

An assessment of the vulnerability of the municipal water management system to the impacts of climate change in the Kingdom of Bahrain, manifested by the increase in demands due to increase in temperatures, is conducted using a dynamic mathematical model representing the water sector in the kingdom. The model is developed using WEAP software and was calibrated and validated by historical matching utilizing data for the period 2000-2012. The model is used in the evaluation of the municipal water sector performance in terms of municipal water demands and their associated cost without and with climate change impacts scenarios for the period 2012-2030. The impact of climate change on the municipal water system is quantified as the difference between the two scenarios in three selected cost indicators: financial (production, conveyance and distribution costs), economic (natural gas asset consumption by desalination plants), and environmental (CO2 emissions by desalination plants). The vulnerability assessment indicated that the current municipal water management system in Bahrain is generally inefficient and associated with relatively high costs, which are expected to increase with time under the current policies and management approach focusing on supply-side management. The increase in temperature will increase these already high costs, and would exacerbate the water management challenges in Bahrain. However, these mounting challenges also present an opportune moment for Bahrain to review its current water resources management approaches and practices and to integrate climate change adaptation measures into its water planning and policies. In order to build an adaptive management capacity of the municipal water management system in Bahrain, a number of management interventions are proposed and evaluated, individually and combined, for their effectiveness in enhancing the efficiency of the management system using the developed dynamic model. These are: reduction of the leakage percentage in the municipal water distributions network and reducing per capita water consumption by raising water awareness among consumers and installing water saving devices in residential units. The evaluation results indicate that there is a large potential for reducing the municipal water demand and its associated cost, especially when all the three are combined; by the year 2030 it is estimated that the cumulative financial saving would be about US$ 2.9 Billion, the cumulative reduction in CO2 emission would be about 19.7 Million tons, and the preservation of the kingdom's limited natural gas reserves would be about 4 Billion m(3). In addition, a major reduction in desalination brine discharge to the marine environment and reduction of generated wastewater and their associated collection and treatment cost could be achieved from the implementation of these interventions. Adopting such management interventions will not only enhance the efficiency of the municipal water management system, but it will also help the Kingdom in its efforts in reducing its greenhouse gasses emissions. It is recommended that similar climate change vulnerability and adaptation analysis is extended to the whole water sector in Bahrain to include other major water consuming sectors (i.e., agricultural, industrial, and tourism sectors) and their sources of water (i.e., groundwater and wastewater) in Bahrain.

2018

10.1016/j.crm.2018.02.002

Marty, Edwige; Segnon, Alcade C.; Tui, Sabine Homann-Kee; Trautman, Sabrina; Huyer, Sophia; Cramer, Laura; Mapedza, Everisto

Enabling gender and social inclusion in climate and agriculture policy and planning through foresight processes: assessing challenges and leverage points

CLIMATE POLICY

Scenario-guided foresight processes are increasingly used to engage a broad range of stakeholders in sharing knowledge, reflecting, and setting priorities to respond to present and future climate change related dynamics. They are particularly useful to inform agricultural policies and planning in the face of a changing climate. Such participatory approaches are key to integrating multidisciplinary expertise, perspectives, and viewpoints, and ensuring that the multi-faceted vulnerabilities and the development needs of diverse groups are addressed in the design, planning, and implementation of climate adaptation policy. However, in practice, ensuring meaningful participation in the policy process is far from straightforward. In this paper, we examine the integration of gender and social inclusion considerations in 15 scenario-guided foresight use cases across Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia to determine the ways in which gender and social inclusion dynamics were considered and integrated at different stages of scenario-guided planning processes. To inform the analysis, we use qualitative data from key informant interviews, interviewing scenario coordinators and a gender and social inclusion expert who was engaged in one of the cases; we also review associated reports and outputs. The results suggest that few scenario-guided planning processes centred gender and social inclusion considerations from an early stage and consistently throughout the interventions, translating often into low diversity of stakeholders and insufficient depth reached in the content produced. A number of common challenges are reported including time, budget, and human resource constraints, as well as existing power and institutional dynamics. The latter includes, for instance, low women's representation in technical organizations or important hierarchical social norms structuring discussions. While the focus on the future can disrupt established modes of doing, the complexity of foresight methods can also undermine effective participation leading to important trade-offs. Innovations in the modes of engagement and parallel processes with diverse groups can be important leverage points for inclusion within policymaking processes. Gender and social inclusion should be prioritized from the onset and integrated at different stages of scenario-guided planning processes, notably by allocating more time, human, and financial resources to ensure inclusiveness.Parallel consultations among diverse organizations and groups can provide effective spaces for often-sidelined or marginalized groups' interests and needs to be integrated into policy decision-making given the existing power structures that regulate access to many workshops and related discussions. Multi-scale engagements with different networks also help deepen understanding and reconcile gaps across scales of decision-making (e.g. from local level to national level).Practitioners should further their use of foresight processes and development of tools and methods for integrating gender and social inclusion in these as part of the policy process, as well as strengthen the capacities, expertise, and role of conveners.Promotion and dissemination of existing gender and social inclusion research and documentation as well as support for learning and reflection to refine identified leverage points can lead to improved success.

2023

10.1080/14693062.2023.2268042

Waliser, Duane

Toward a US Framework for Continuity of Satellite Observations of Earth's Climate and for Supporting Societal Resilience

EARTHS FUTURE

There is growing urgency for improved public and commercial services to support a resilient, secure, and thriving United States (US) in the face of mounting decision-support needs for environmental stewardship and hazard response, as well as for climate change adaptation and mitigation. Sustained space-based Earth observations are critical infrastructure to support the delivery of science and decision-support information with local, national, and global utility. This is reflected in part through the United States' sustained support of a suite of weather and land-imaging satellites. However, outside of these two areas, the US lacks an overarching, systematic plan or framework to identify, prioritize, fund, and implement sustained space-based Earth observations to meet the Nation's full range of needs for science, government policy, and societal support. To aid and accelerate the discussion on our nation's needs, challenges and opportunities associated with sustained critical space-based Earth observations, the Keck Institute for Space Studies (KISS) sponsored a multi-week think-tank study to offer ways forward. Based on this study, the KISS study team suggests the establishment of a robust coordination framework to help address US needs for sustained Earth observations. This coordination framework could account for: (a) approaches to identify and prioritize satellite observations needed to meet US needs for science and services, (b) the rapidly evolving landscape of space-based Earth viewing architecture options and technology improvements with increasing opportunities and lower cost access to space, and (c) the technical and programmatic underpinnings required for proper and comprehensive data stewardship to support a wide range of research and public services. The Keck Institute of Space Studies has carried out a think tank study to codify best practices, articulate successes, and identify challenges and opportunities in the prioritization, acquisition, curation, and stewardship of sustained space-based Earth observations. The goal of the study is to accelerate discussion and plans for a greater and more impactful US contribution to the global satellite observing system that will support decision-making regarding climate change, environmental hazards, and national security. Based on this study, the KISS study team suggests the establishment of a nimble and responsive coordination framework to help guide and shepherd US concerns regarding sustained Earth observations. This coordination framework should account for: (a) approaches to identify and prioritize satellite observations needed to meet US needs for science and services, (b) the rapidly evolving landscape of space-based Earth viewing architecture options and technology improvements with increasing opportunities and lower cost access to space and (c) the technical and programmatic underpinnings required for proper and comprehensive data stewardship with a broad science and services user base in mind. There is growing urgency for improved public and commercial services to support a resilient, secure, and thriving US Space-based Earth observations represent an essential component of the infrastructure needed to support the delivery of needed information The US would benefit from an overarching plan for sustained Earth observations to support our science, policy, and resilience goals

2024

10.1029/2023EF003757

Singh, R. K.; Singh, H. N.; Singh, V. N.; Singh, Abha; Singh, Sanjay; Singh, Nikhil; Singh, Arvind

Helping farmers adapt to climate change: the NEFORD way

INDIAN JOURNAL OF GENETICS AND PLANT BREEDING

Significant increases in food production in the 20(th) century have contributed to the improvement of many farmers' livelihood and their economic growth. However, the gains have come with disproportionate environmental, cultural, health and social costs. The agriculture in the 21(st) century will have to address crucial challenges including climate change, by maintaining and enhancing environmental & cultural services and safeguarding nutritional quality, diversity of food and farming systems. Often the problems in agriculture are not solely caused by a lack or failure of science & technology, but instead derive from social, economic or legal framework. It is therefore critical to define first, what problems are best solved by changing social, economic or legal frameworks and second, those which are best solved by using technology. Further, the green revolution era model of transfer of technology is no more valid, particularly, when it comes to complex issues such as natural resource and climate change. Instead, innovative institutional arrangements are essential to successful design and adoption of ecologically and socially suitable agricultural systems. The roles of NGOs should be seen in this context. The advantage of NGOs lies in their independence status, freedom of raising voice of the poor and involvement at the grass-root level. Nand Educational Foundation for Rural Development (NEFORD) is one such NGO committed to transforming quality of live for the rural poor and under-privileged. It is dedicated to achieve sustainable economic development and preserve environment with the focus on marginal communities. NEFORD is leading an initiative called PARIS (Poverty Alleviation through Rice Innovation Systems) to improve food security (increase yields and reduce input cost), enhance flexibility in response to monsoon and climate change and maintain profitability in the market economy. PARIS aims to build Partnership for Rice Innovation Platform and Communication Systems to improve information flow to farmers and feedback and facilitate communication through out the information supply chain. The project uses ICT to improve access to information on market, cropping choices, weather forecasts and technology options, for which an Information Hub has been developed via the internet and village computer centres, to facilitate information flow between farmers and project partners. The program is about taking Research Into Use (RIU). We know a lot about the potential uses of different technologies, but what we don't know is where it is fit for purpose. To understand this, we are trying to bring together (a) knowledge of how a technology works, (b) appreciation of different agro-ecological conditions, in which it might be the best applied and (c) knowledge of socio-economic domain, in which it could be used. Matching the bio-physical and socioeconomic characterizations with the technology profiles (options) enables us to test the usefulness of intervention. The paper highlights the concept of Rice Innovation Systems and describes the functional mechanism and provides examples from the fields on technologies for adaptation to climate change, the nature of trainings to improve farmers' skills and knowledge and innovative approaches for accelerating the pace of technology adoption to reach out larger number of people in a shortest possible time.

2009

Xu, Zhiwei; Bambrick, Hilary; Frentiu, Francesca D.; Devine, Gregor; Yakob, Laith; Williams, Gail; Hu, Wenbiao

Projecting the future of dengue under climate change scenarios: Progress, uncertainties and research needs

PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES

Background Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease and its transmission is closely linked to climate. We aimed to review available information on the projection of dengue in the future under climate change scenarios. Methods Using five databases (PubMed, ProQuest, ScienceDirect, Scopus and Web of Science), a systematic review was conducted to retrieve all articles from database inception to 30(th) June 2019 which projected the future of dengue under climate change scenarios. In this review, the future of dengue refers to disease burden of dengue, epidemic potential of dengue cases, geographical distribution of dengue cases, and population exposed to climatically suitable areas of dengue. Results Sixteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria, and five of them projected a global dengue future. Most studies reported an increase in disease burden, a wider spatial distribution of dengue cases or more people exposed to climatically suitable areas of dengue as climate change proceeds. The years 1961-1990 and 2050 were the most commonly used baseline and projection periods, respectively. Multiple climate change scenarios introduced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), including B1, A1B, and A2, as well as Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6), RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, were most widely employed. Instead of projecting the future number of dengue cases, there is a growing consensus on using population exposed to climatically suitable areas for dengue or epidemic potential of dengue cases as the outcome variable. Future studies exploring non-climatic drivers which determine the presence/absence of dengue vectors, and identifying the pivotal factors triggering the transmission of dengue in those climatically suitable areas would help yield a more accurate projection for dengue in the future. Conclusions Projecting the future of dengue requires a systematic consideration of assumptions and uncertainties, which will facilitate the development of tailored climate change adaptation strategies to manage dengue. Author summary Dengue is the most important arboviral disease globally, and the transmission of dengue is closely linked to climate. This review assembled all existing studies which have quantified the impact of climate change on dengue under climate change scenarios. We observed that most studies reported an increase in disease burden, a wider spatial distribution of dengue cases or more people exposed to climatically suitable areas of dengue as climate change proceeds. The years 1961-1990 and 2050 were the most commonly used baseline and projection periods, respectively. Multiple climate change scenarios introduced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), including B1, A1B, and A2, as well as Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6), RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, were most widely employed. Instead of projecting the future number of dengue cases, there is a growing consensus on using population exposed to climatically suitable areas for dengue or epidemic potential of dengue cases as the outcome variable. Future studies exploring non-climatic drivers which determine the presence/absence of dengue vectors, and identifying the pivotal factors triggering the transmission of dengue in those climatically suitable areas would help yield a more accurate projection for dengue in the future.

2020

10.1371/journal.pntd.0008118

Gashaw, Temesgen; Worqlul, Abeyou W.; Taye, Meron Teferi; Lakew, Haileyesus Belay; Seid, Abdulkarim; Ayele, Girma; Haileslassie, Amare

Performance evaluations of CMIP6 model simulations and future projections of rainfall and temperature in the Bale Eco-Region, Southern Ethiopia

THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY

Identifying best performing climate models is indispensable for better understanding of the future climate and its impact as well as for planning effective climate change adaptation and mitigation measures. This research aims to identify the best performing Global Climate Models (GCMs) products from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) in simulating rainfall and temperature in the Bale Eco-Region (BER), Southern Ethiopia. In this study, evaluations were performed for ten CMIP6 GCMs against observed and reanalysis rainfall and temperature products in terms of how well the GCMs reproduce rainfall, maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) from daily to annual temporal scales during 1995-2014 period. Performance evaluations were performed using the Comprehensive Rating Index (CRI), which is based on four statistical metrics. The best performing CMIP6 model(s) were bias-corrected by Distribution Mapping (DM) for future climate analysis at different agro-ecological zones (AEZs) and at the eco-region level. The study used projections of climate variables in the near future (2021-2040), mid-century (2041-2060) and late century (2081-2100) periods. Three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) were considered as future climate scenarios. The result indicated that BCC-CSM2-MR, CNRM-CM6-1 and MRI-ESM2-0 are relatively better for simulating the rainfall climatology of the BER from the daily to annual temporal scales. EC-Earth3, Ec-Earth3-Veg and MPI-ESM1-2-LR are also comparatively better for simulating Tmax while CNRM-CM6-1, EC-Earth3-Veg and EC-Earth3 outperformed for simulating Tmin in the studied temporal scales. After careful evaluations, climate change analysis was performed using the ensemble mean of BCC-CSM2-MR, CNRM-CM6-1 and MRI-ESM2-0 for rainfall, EC-Earth3 for Tmax and the ensemble mean of CNRM-CM6-1 and EC-Earth3-Veg for Tmin. Accordingly, the annual rainfall is expected to decrease in the near future in the three scenarios in the alpine (2-5%), temperate (11-14%) and sub-tropical (7-9%) AEZs as well as the BER spatial scales (2-5%), but rainfall is expected to increase in the late century period. In contrast, rainfall is expected to increase in the tropical AEZ in both the near future (3-11%) and late century (25-45%) periods. In the mid-century period, rainfall is expected to increase in the tropical AEZ in all the three scenarios, but it exhibits different directions of changes in the remaining AEZs and BER scale at different scenarios. The finding also revealed an expected increase in both Tmax and Tmin in the different AEZs as well as the BER scale, but the projected temperature increase is high in temperate AEZ. The projected increase of rainfall in the near future in tropical AEZ may reduce the frequently occurring droughts mainly in the lowland parts of the BER. Conversely, the reductions of rainfall in the remaining AEZs may introduce challenges for agriculture, water resources as well as endemic animals. The findings of this study justifies the need for climate models evaluation for each climate variables in order to choose the most appropriate models for localized climate change impact and adaptation studies. In addition, this study also suggested projections of future climate for different AEZs for better decision-making process for the specific AEZs.

2024

10.1007/s00704-024-04904-y

McCarty, Jessica L.; Aalto, Juha; Paunu, Ville-Veikko; Arnold, Steve R.; Eckhardt, Sabine; Klimont, Zbigniew; Fain, Justin J.; Evangeliou, Nikolaos; Venalainen, Ari; Tchebakova, Nadezhda M.; Parfenova, Elena, I; Kupiainen, Kaarle; Soja, Amber J.; Huang, Lin; Wilson, Simon

Reviews and syntheses: Arctic fire regimes and emissions in the 21st century

BIOGEOSCIENCES

In recent years, the pan-Arctic region has experienced increasingly extreme fire seasons. Fires in the northern high latitudes are driven by current and future climate change, lightning, fuel conditions, and human activity. In this context, conceptualizing and parameterizing current and future Arctic fire regimes will be important for fire and land management as well as understanding current and predicting future fire emissions. The objectives of this review were driven by policy questions identified by the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) Working Group and posed to its Expert Group on Short-Lived Climate Forcers. This review synthesizes current understanding of the changing Arctic and boreal fire regimes, particularly as fire activity and its response to future climate change in the pan-Arctic have consequences for Arctic Council states aiming to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the north. The conclusions from our synthesis are the following. (1) Current and future Arctic fires, and the adjacent boreal region, are driven by natural (i.e. lightning) and human-caused ignition sources, including fires caused by timber and energy extraction, prescribed burning for landscape management, and tourism activities. Little is published in the scientific literature about cultural burning by Indigenous populations across the pan-Arctic, and questions remain on the source of ignitions above 70 degrees N in Arctic Russia. (2) Climate change is expected to make Arctic fires more likely by increasing the likelihood of extreme fire weather, increased lightning activity, and drier vegetative and ground fuel conditions. (3) To some extent, shifting agricultural land use and forest transitions from forest-steppe to steppe, tundra to taiga, and coniferous to deciduous in a warmer climate may increase and decrease open biomass burning, depending on land use in addition to climate-driven biome shifts. However, at the country and landscape scales, these relationships are not well established. (4) Current black carbon and PM2.5 emissions from wildfires above 50 and 65 degrees N are larger than emissions from the anthropogenic sectors of residential combustion, transportation, and flaring. Wildfire emissions have increased from 2010 to 2020, particularly above 60 degrees N, with 56% of black carbon emissions above 65 degrees N in 2020 attributed to open biomass burning - indicating how extreme the 2020 wildfire season was and how severe future Arctic wildfire seasons can potentially be. (5) What works in the boreal zones to prevent and fight wildfires may not work in the Arctic. Fire management will need to adapt to a changing climate, economic development, the Indigenous and local communities, and fragile northern ecosystems, including permafrost and peatlands. (6) Factors contributing to the uncertainty of predicting and quantifying future Arctic fire regimes include underestimation of Arctic fires by satellite systems, lack of agreement between Earth observations and official statistics, and still needed refinements of location, conditions, and previous fire return intervals on peat and permafrost landscapes. This review highlights that much research is needed in order to understand the local and regional impacts of the changing Arctic fire regime on emissions and the global climate, ecosystems, and pan-Arctic communities.

2021

10.5194/bg-18-5053-2021

Wu, Jing; Drappier, Julie; Hilbert, Ghislaine; Guillaumie, Sabine; Dai, Zhanwu; Geny, Laurence; Delrot, Serge; Darriet, Philippe; Thibon, Cecile; Pieri, Philippe

The effects of a moderate grape temperature increase on berry secondary metabolites

OENO ONE

Context and purpose of the study: Like in other wine producing regions around the world, Bordeaux vineyards already experience the effects of climate change. Recent trends as well as model outputs for the future strongly support an increase of average and extreme temperatures. For the maturation period, this increase will by far exceed mean atmospheric temperature increase, as the ripening period will occur earlier in hotter climatic conditions. Therefore, a detrimental secondary metabolism response is expected in grape berries, and of particular concern are the impacts on phenolics and aromas and aroma precursors. The effects of high temperatures on secondary metabolism control have been partly characterized for phenolics, however mostly in artificial growing conditions, while little is known with respect to aromas. A better understanding of how high temperatures influence grape berry secondary metabolites could help vineyard growers to adapt to climate change and maintain wine quality. Material and methods: A two-year field study was carried out in 2015 and 2016 in a vineyard in Bordeaux, France. Two treatments, heated (H) and control (C), were applied to two varieties, Cabernet-Sauvignon and Sauvignon blanc, from fruit-set to maturity. Field heating was achieved by a very local greenhouse effect applied to the bottom of the rows, by enclosing most of the underlying soil surface by polycarbonate shields. As the training system was vertically trellised, the heated volume surrounded most of the bunches but did not disturb most of the leaves in the canopy. This simple and robust setup allowed an increase of berry temperature by about +1.5 degrees C in mean value, up to +5 degrees C at times during clear sky days. This moderate increase of temperature was indicative of the predicted future climatic conditions for the mid-21st century. Berry samples were collected at 4 time points from bunch closure to maturity for each cultivar and treatment. Primary and secondary metabolites were measured in whole berries or skins. Results and conclusions: With this moderate temperature increase, primary metabolite content in berries did not change significantly. In H samples, anthocyanins were reduced and tannins increased before veraison, and both decreased thereafter. H samples also exhibited lower concentrations of some amino acids, especially alanine, serine and phenylalanine. IBMP (2-methoxy-3-isobutylpyrazine) concentrations were also reduced in H samples of Cabernet-Sauvignon, in both seasons, especially at bunch closure stage, but the differences diminished at full maturity. For thiol 3-sulfanyl hexanol precursors, H samples again exhibited much lower concentrations for both varieties, with weak differences at early stages that increased at later stages (up to -70% decline at maturity in 2015 for Sauvignon blanc). These results demonstrate the potential negative impact of elevated temperature on polyphenols and aroma quality of grape berries. Significance and impact of the study: For viticulture to adapt to new climatic conditions, the negative impacts of high temperature on secondary metabolites and aromas, and therefore on wine quality, need to be contemplated. Thus, already established or new vineyard plantings must prepare and consider practices able to mitigate these impacts, for instance practices that increase bunch shading.

2019

10.20870/oeno-one.2019.53.2.2434

John, Tumaini Wambua; Susnik, Janez; Masia, Sara; Jewitt, Graham

Towards realization of nexus-doing at the grassroots level: Water-energy-food governance assessment in the Songwe River Basin (Tanzania and Malawi)

ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY

The intricate connections between water, land, food, energy, and climate change require a multicentric approach to evaluating the trade-offs and synergies needed to achieve sustainable development. For example, the amount of water required in irrigated agriculture, consumptive water uses, and hydro-power production can potentially lead to water pollution, and negatively affect hydrological regimes. However, Operationalizing Water Energy Food (WEF)-nexus thinking has evolved such that a division between researchers (e.g., academia), political actors (e.g., policymakers), and development partners (e.g., promoters) has formed. This lack of connection can lead to a situation where there is incoherent governance of WEF resources management. In the Southern African Development Community (SADC) context, the WEF nexus approach is at the core of regional sustainable development plans and strategies. This paper analyses the ambitions and the expected outcomes of the Songwe River Basin Development Programme (SRBDP) and reflects on how governance coherence of WEF resources rooted at the grassroots level contributes toward achieving nexus-doing. The SRBDP exhibits a multistakeholder connection of interests geared towards a common target (i.e. stabilisation of the River Songwe flow). The SRBDP creates a multi-centric action system within the water, energy, food, and climate change adaptation role-players to achieve this overarching goal. The connections espoused in this system form the basis for nexus-doing in the Songwe River Basin. The major findings are: (i) there is a significant infrastructural demand in the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC), anchored in the development of water, land, food, and energy resources; (ii) governance coherence in the SADC context can be identified at both vertical and horizontal levels; (iii) the nature of trade-offs and synergies exhibited in SRBDP is valuable for making progress towards the operationalization of integrated WEF-nexus resource management; (iv) governance inconsistencies/ ambiguities are better diagnosed and addressed in implementing nexus-doing initiatives such as SRBDP. Based on the findings, the following recommendations are proposed: (i) build upon small wins and support snow-balling successes to upscale promising initiatives-for instance the joint agreement by Tanzanian and Malawian governments to stabilize Songwe River flow by inaugurating the joint cooperation and equitable sharing of the Songwe watercourses (AFDB, 2019); (ii) invest in capacity building and human resources for the Songwe River Basin Commission and associated stakeholders to become more effective;-for posterity of sustainable developments in the Songwe River Basin; both the Tanzanian and Malawian governments in partnership with development partners need to upscale the investment in human capacity development and resource capacity development of the Songwe River Basin Commission (SRBC) as the joint development vehicle for the basin. and (iii) enrich policy assessment tools tailor-made for SADC. This tool will help in policy accounting to help minimize duplication, and ambiguities by fostering cooperation and policy mapping across the WEF-nexus sectors in the SADC region. This work can guide approaches to close the gap between nexus-thinking, and nexus-doing, something that is increasingly called for.

2023

10.1016/j.envsci.2023.103596

Bell, E. J.

Climate change and health research: has it served rural communities?

RURAL AND REMOTE HEALTH

Introduction: If climate change is the 21st Century's biggest public health threat, research faces the major challenge of providing adequate evidence for vulnerable communities to adapt to the health effects of climate change. Available information about best practice in climate adaptation suggests it is inclusive of socio-economic disadvantage and local community factors such as access to health services. Since 1995, at least 19 164 papers have been published on climate change in the health sciences and social sciences. This body of literature has not yet been systematically examined for how well it serves rural communities. Methods: The ultimate aim of the study was to contribute to better understandings about what climate adaptation research has been done and is needed for rural communities. The two research questions were: 'What kinds of content define climate change research in disciplines that could potentially contribute to adaptation for health?' and 'How is content about rural and Aboriginal communities and best practice in adaptation related to this content?' A quantitative content analysis was performed using 'computational linguistics' Leximancer software. The analysis included 19 164 health and social sciences abstracts, batched by years, from 1 January 1995 to 31 July 2012. The relative frequency and co-occurrence of 52 concepts in these abstracts were mapped, as well as associations with positive or negative sentiment for selected concepts. Results: 'Rural' and 'Aboriginal' concepts tend to be relatively infrequent (3% and 5% overall likelihood of occurrence, respectively) and are more associated with socio-economic concepts in the social sciences than the health sciences. Multiple concepts in the health sciences literature are typically connected with 'disease' and ultimately 'science' storylines, with a 38% likelihood of paired co-occurrence of 'health' and 'disease' concepts alone. The social sciences appear more focused on the local and particular issues of community in climate change than the health sciences. 'Rural' and 'Aboriginal' concepts have increased by 1% across both discipline areas, since 2011 for the 'rural' concept and since 2004 for the 'Aboriginal' concept. 'Health' concepts in the health sciences and 'economic' concepts in the social sciences, as well as 'urban' concepts, are referred to more positively than either the 'rural' or 'Aboriginal' concepts. Conclusions: While care needs to be taken in interpreting the results of this study too negatively for rural and Aboriginal communities, they suggest that a disease focus dominates climate and health research typically unconnected to wider socio-economic and human system factors. This finding needs to be considered in light of the accumulating evidence of the importance of such contextual systemic factors in understanding climate and health effects and responses. The study adds some support to the view that a key priority is bringing the learnings of applied community-based researchers, from those in rural health to those in the social sciences, to climate research. There is a need to build confidence, including in the rural health sector which has arguably been slow to participate in programs of climate change research, that community-based research could make a difference to rural health in a climate-changing world.

2013

Bhawra, Jasmin; Skinner, Kelly; Favel, Duane; Green, Brenda; Coates, Ken; Katapally, Tarun Reddy; Bhawra, Jasmin

The Food Equity and Environmental Data Sovereignty (FEEDS) Project: Protocol for a Quasi-Experimental Study Evaluating a Digital Platform for Climate Change Preparedness

JMIR RESEARCH PROTOCOLS

Background: Despite having the tools at our disposal to enable an adequate food supply for all people, inequities in food acquisition, distribution, and most importantly, food sovereignty, worsen food insecurity. The detrimental impact of climate change on food systems and mental health is further exacerbated by a lack of food sovereignty. We urgently require innovative solutions to enable food sovereignty, minimize food insecurity, and address climate change-related mental distress (ie, solastalgia). Indigenous communities have a wealth of Traditional Knowledge for climate change adaptation and preparedness to strengthen food systems. Traditional Knowledge combined with Western methods can revolutionize ethical data collection, engagement, and knowledge mobilization. Objective: The Food Equity and Environmental Data Sovereignty (FEEDS) Project takes a participatory action, citizen science approach for early detection and warning of climate change impacts on food sovereignty, food security, and solastalgia. The aim of this project is to develop and implement a sustainable digital platform that enables real-time decision-making to mitigate climate change-related impacts on food systems and mental well-being. Methods: Citizen science enables citizens to actively contribute to all aspects of the research process. The FEEDS Project is being implemented in five phases: participatory project planning, digital climate change platform customization, community-led evaluation, digital platform and project refinement, and integrated knowledge translation. The project is governed by a Citizen Scientist Advisory Council comprising Elders, Traditional Knowledge Keepers, key community decision makers, youth, and FEEDS Project researchers. The Council governs all phases of the project, including coconceptualizing a climate change platform, which consists of a smartphone app and a digital decision-making dashboard. Apart from capturing environmental and health-related big data (eg, weather, permafrost degradation, fire hazards, and human movement), the custom-built app uses artificial intelligence to engage and enable citizens to report on environmental hazards, changes in biodiversity or wildlife, and related food and mental health issues in their communities. The app provides citizens with valuable information to mitigate health-related risks and relays big data in real time to a digital dashboard. Results: This project is currently in phase 1, with the subarctic Metis jurisdiction of Ile-a-la-Crosse, Saskatchewan, Canada. Conclusions: The FEEDS Project facilitates Indigenous Peoples' self-determination, governance, and data sovereignty. All citizen data are anonymous and encrypted, and communities have ownership, access, control, and possession of their data. The digital dashboard system provides decision makers with real-time data, thereby increasing the capacity to self-govern. The participatory action research approach, combined with digital citizen science, advances the cocreation of knowledge and multidisciplinary collaboration in the digital age. Given the urgency of climate change, leveraging technology provides communities with tools to respond to existing and emerging crises in a timely manner, as well as scientific evidence regarding the urgency of current health and environmental issues.

2021

10.2196/31389

Mashallahi, Alireza; Ardalan, Ali; Nejati, Amir; Ostadtaghizadeh, Abbas

Climate adaptive hospital: A systematic review of determinants and actions

JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING

Introduction Climate change is among the most renowned concerns of the current century, endangering the lives of millions of people worldwide. To comply with the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21), hospitals should be on track to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Although hospitals contribute to climate change by emitting greenhouse gases, they are also affected by the health consequences of climate change. Despite all the guidance provided, hospitals need more radical measures to confront climate change. The current study was carried out to examine the components of hospitals' adaptation to climate change and to review measures to confront climate change in hospitals. Method This systematic review was designed and carried out in 2020. The required information was collected from international electronic databases including Scopus, PubMed, Web of Science, EMBASE, and Google Scholar. Moreover, Iranian datasets such as Scientific Database (SID), Irandoc, Magiran, and IranMedex were reviewed. No restriction was considered in the methodology of the study. For the relevant thesis, the ProQuest database was also explored. The related sources were examined and the Snowball method was applied to find additional related studies. The research team also reviewed other accessible electronic resources, such as international guidelines and academic websites. The checklist of the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI, 2017) was employed in order to evaluate the quality of the included papers. The studies published until June1, 2020, were included in the study. Results Of 11,680 published documents in the initial search, the full-texts of 140 were read after evaluating the titles and abstracts, of which 114 were excluded due to lack of sufficient information related to countermeasures in hospitals. Finally, the full-texts of 26 studies were reviewed to extract the required components. Two strategies were found, including climate change mitigation and climate change adaptation, with 13 components including water, wastewater, energy, waste, green buildings, food, transportation, green purchasing policy, medicines, chemicals and toxins, technology, sustainable care models, and leadership in hospitals were identified as affecting these measures and strategies. Conclusion Considering the significance of climate change and strategies to confront it as one of the current challenges and priorities in the world, it is necessary to develop a framework and model to reduce the effects of climate change and adapt to climate changes in hospitals and other health centers. The identification and classification of the measures and components, influencing hospital adaptability and solutions for reducing the climate change impacts could be the first stage in developing this strategy. This is because it is impossible to create this framework without identifying these factors and their mutual impacts at the first. In the present study, through a systematic review using a comprehensive approach, the related components were explored and divided into two categories, including measures to reduce the effects and measures to adapt to climate change. The results of this study can be useful in developing a comprehensive action model to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt hospitals to climate change.

2022

10.1007/s40201-022-00810-5

Huang, Zeqin; Tan, Xuezhi; Liu, Bingjun

Relative Contributions of Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Dynamics and Anthropogenic Warming to the Unprecedented 2022 Yangtze River Basin Heatwave

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES

The unprecedented 2022 Yangtze River Basin (YRB) heatwave is a threat to human society and natural ecology, so the understanding of its underlying drivers is critical to regional climate adaptation and resilience. Here we conducted a multi-method attribution analysis on the contribution of atmospheric circulation change and anthropogenic impacts to the occurrence probability and intensity of this extreme heatwave. Based on the nonstationary statistical analysis, the 2022 YRB heatwave is a 1-in-900-year event and a 1-in-110-year event with and without considering the 2022 YRB heatwave in the fitting, respectively. The large-scale meteorological condition analysis shows that the 2022 YRB heatwave is featured with an anomalous high-pressure system that favors a hot and dry atmospheric column, overlaid by anomalous subsidence and clear skies which leads to warming and greater solar heating. The ensemble constructed circulation analogue analyses show that the circulation anomaly fails to explain the observed 2022 YRB SAT anomalies fully. Specifically, 46% (0.132 +/- 0.027 degrees C decade-1) of the observed SAT trend during 1979-2022 (0.290 +/- 0.048 degrees C decade-1) is caused by anthropogenic warming and the associated thermodynamic feedback, while the remaining 54% (0.157 +/- 0.038 degrees C decade-1) of the trend is caused by changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation. Our findings on changes in atmospheric circulation patterns associated with YRB heatwave and anthropogenic contributions to YRB heatwave could provide valuable information for climate adaptation and mitigation strategies in the context of a warming climate. Heatwaves are major climate extremes in the context of global warming, which have inverse effects on human health, food and energy production, and ecosystems. The 2022 heatwave in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) sets a new record in observational history with its extreme intensity, long duration, and widespread affected areas. The 2022 YRB heatwave is too exceptional to be possible without anthropogenic warming, which is a 1-in-900-year event and a 1-in-110-year event, respectively, with and without considering it in the nonstationary statistical fitting. An anomalous and prolonged high-pressure system predominated the evolution of the 2022 YRB heatwave, which favors anomalous subsidence and clear skies, leading to hot and dry atmospheric conditions. Next, we applied an ensemble circulation constructed analogue approach to separate the contributions of large-scale circulation changes and anthropogenic warming in generating the 2022 heatwave. The results reveal that circulation dynamics can only partially explain the 2022 event. When historical changes are taken into account, the changes in large-scale circulation and anthropogenic warming, respectively, can account for 54% and 46% of the observed summer surface air temperature anomalies in the YRB region. The 2022 Yangtze River Basin (YRB) heatwave, linked to anomalous circulation backgrounds, set unprecedented records for surface air temperature (SAT) The atmospheric circulation anomalies alone cannot fully explain the SAT anomalies during the 2022 YRB heatwave The variation in atmospheric circulation and anthropogenic warming contributed nearly equally to the historical SAT trend of YRB

2024

10.1029/2023JD039330

Bell, E. J.; Turner, P.; Meinke, H.; Holbrook, N. J.

Developing rural community health risk assessments for climate change: a Tasmanian pilot study

RURAL AND REMOTE HEALTH

Introduction: This article examines the development and pilot implementation of an approach to support local community decision-makers to plan health adaptation responses to climate change. The approach involves health and wellbeing risk assessment supported through the use of an electronic tool. While climate change is a major foreseeable public health threat, the extent to which health services are prepared for, or able to adequately respond to, climate change impact-related risks remains unclear. Building health decision-support mechanisms in order to involve and empower local stakeholders to help create the basis for agreement on these adaptive actions is an important first step. The primary research question was 'What can be learned from pilot implementation of a community health and well-being risk assessment (CHWRA) information technology-based tool designed to support understanding of, and decision-making on, local community challenges and opportunities associated with health risks posed by climate change?' Methods: The article examines the complexity of climate change science to adaptation translational processes, with reference to existing research literature on community development. This is done in the context of addressing human health risks for rural and remote communities in Tasmania, Australia. This process is further examined through the pilot implementation of an electronic tool designed to support the translation of physically based climate change impact information into community-level assessments of health risks and adaptation priorities. The procedural and technical nature of the CHWRA tool is described, and the implications of the data gathered from stakeholder workshops held at three rural Tasmanian local government sites are considered and discussed. Results: Bushfire, depression and waterborne diseases were identified by community stakeholders as being potentially 'catastrophic' health effects 'likely' to 'almost certain' to occur at one or more Tasmanian rural sites-based on an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change style of assessment. Consensus statements from stakeholders also suggested concern with regard to managing the ways that climate change can multiply socioeconomic and health outcome inequality. Above all, stakeholder responses emphasised the importance of an applied, complexity-oriented understanding of how climate and climate change impacts affect local communities and local services to compromise the overall quality of human health in these communities. Conclusions: Complex community-level assessments about climate change and related health risks and responses can be captured electronically in ways that offer potentially actionable information about priorities for health sector adaptation, as a first step in planning. What is valuable about these community judgements is the creation of shared values and commitments. Future iteration of the IT tool could include decision-support modules to support best practice health sector adaptation scenarios, providing participants with opportunities to develop their know-how about health sector adaptation to climate change. If managed carefully, such tools could work within a balanced portfolio of measures to help reduce the rising health burden from climate change.

2015

Ghahramani, Afshin; Moore, Andrew D.

Impact of climate changes on existing crop-livestock farming systems

AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS

The state of Western Australia is a major producer and exporter of crops and livestock. Mixed farming systems are typical agricultural enterprises in the Western Australian wheatbelt where climate drives the productivity and profitability of these farms and therefore the effects of likely climate change on their performance need to be understood. Here the effects of climate change projected at 2030 were evaluated compared to a baseline period (1980-1999) on mixed farming systems at paddock, enterprise and whole farm scales using the coupled APSIM and GRAZPLAN biophysical simulation models. The yield of different crops, livestock production and gross margins were assessed under current and projected climates using current farming technology and management practices. Representative mixed-farm systems were selected along a climate transect. Modelling analysis suggests that current production levels and gross margins of mixed farm systems in Western Australia will not be sustained in 2030 climate conditions except in areas of moderately high-rainfall. Whole farm gross margin declined at all site x potential climate scenarios between 1% and 22% except in moderately high rainfall where gross margin increased by up to 4% under a 'hot and moderate change in rainfall' climate. Projected crop yields declined for most of the crop x site x potential climate combinations, with greatest declines under a hot and dry climate (at driest margin of transect) in which wheat, barley, canola, and lupin yield declined up to 16%, 15%, 21%, and 27%, respectively. Increase in yield was predicted for wheat and barley at some of the site x potential climate s. Wheat yield increased only under moderately high rainfall region by 6% while barley increased by 1%. Simulated cropping gross margin was also shown to decline by between >1% and 23%, except for the moderately high rainfall site where cropping gross margins were projected to increase by up to 3%. Changes in simulated livestock production were smaller and less variable than for crop production. The change in weight of livestock sold across sites x potential climate combinations ranged between -3% and +3%. Livestock gross margin varied between -11% and +6%. Modelling results indicated a greater fertilisation effect of the elevated CO2 on pasture production than on crop yield and biomass particularly in drier sites. But however, this could not offset negative impact of climate change under hot potential climates. The main negative environmental impacts from the projected climate change were declines in annual net primary production (ANPP), ground cover and water use efficiency mostly at drier sites. Whole farm N2O emission declined significantly for the majority of site x potential climate combinations, while smaller decreases in ruminant CH4 emission were predicted. In 2030, returns from livestock enterprises are predicted to be smaller, but less variable than from cropping and with increasing probability of success in drier regions. Reduced variability in financial return is important from the perspective of whole farm risk management. Shifts in enterprise mix in dryland mixed-farming systems towards increased livestock may be a helpful strategy in adapting to climate change and managing the associated financial risks.

2016

10.1016/j.agsy.2016.05.011

Voelz, Vanessa; Hinkel, Jochen

Sea Level Rise Learning Scenarios for Adaptive Decision-Making Based on IPCC AR6

EARTHS FUTURE

Adaptation decision-scientists increasingly use real-option analysis to consider the value of learning about future climate variable development in adaptation decisions. Toward this end learning scenarios are needed, which are scenarios that provide information on future variable values seen not only from today (as static scenarios), but also seen from future moments in time. Decision-scientists generally develop learning scenarios themselves, mostly through time-independent (stationary) or highly simplified methods. The climate learning scenarios thus attained generally only poorly represent the uncertainties of state-of-the-art climate science and thus may lead to biased decisions. This paper first motivates the need for learning scenarios by providing a simple example to illustrate characteristics and benefits of learning scenarios. Next, we analyze how well learning scenarios represent climate uncertainties in the context of sea level rise and present a novel method called direct fit to generate climate learning scenarios that outperforms existing methods. This is illustrated by quantifying the difference of the sea level rise learning scenarios created with both methods to the original underlying scenario. The direct fit method is based on pointwise probability distributions, for example, boxplots, and hence can be applied to static scenarios as well as ensemble trajectories. Furthermore, the direct fit method offers a much simpler process for generating learning scenarios from static or ordinary climate scenarios. Many climate change adaptation decisions require large investments in infrastructure (e.g., dikes), while at the same time future projections about critical variables (e.g., sea level rise) are highly uncertain. Decision-scientists address these challenges with methods based on flexibility and staged decision-making. For example, a coastal decision-maker could implement a dike with a wider foundation, and, if necessary, upgrade the dike height in the future. The decision-maker will learn by observing future sea level rise if higher dike protection levels are actually necessary in the future. In order to assess whether it is economically beneficial to wait for future learning through observations, and thus to justify additional expenses for flexible infrastructure investments, learning scenarios are required. Learning scenarios provide projections of critical variables seen from today and from future moments in time. For example, learning scenarios of sea level rise contain sea level rise projections seen from 2050 onward, depending on a certain amount of sea level rise observed until 2050. In this paper, we provide a simple example to illustrate coastal decision-making with a learning scenario, propose a new method to generate learning scenarios, and apply this method to generate sea level rise learning scenarios. We show how climate learning scenarios can be applied for improving and justifying investments in flexible long-lasting infrastructureWe develop sea level rise learning scenarios based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change sixth Assessment Report using a novel method termed direct fitOur new method reduces the average deviation of learning scenarios from the original data by 83% compared to standard methods

2023

10.1029/2023EF003662

Ren, Yu; Yu, Haipeng; Huang, Jianping; Peng, Ming; Zhou, Jie

The Projected Response of the Water Cycle to Global Warming Over Drylands in East Asia

EARTHS FUTURE

Climate change exacerbates the threat of water scarcity over the drylands in East Asia (DEA), the world's most densely populated arid region. The water cycle continuously supplies water to support all life. Previous studies have focused on the change in individual hydrological components over DEA; however, how the projected water cycle changes under climate warming remains unclear. We demonstrate the projected response of the water cycle to global warming in different seasons utilizing the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. Winter in the DEA presents an intensification of the water cycle, reflected in coherent increases in evapotranspiration (E), precipitation (P), runoff, and surface soil moisture. In contrast, summer will experience a weakened water cycle in the northwestern DEA, while the southeastern part exhibits the opposite trend. From the surface and atmospheric water balance perspective, we further attribute the changes in E and P to gain a more comprehensive understanding. The increasing E is attributed to the combined effects of P and the vapor pressure deficit during summer, whereas it is dominated by P in winter. The increased P in summer is primarily attributed to the horizontal dynamic and vertical thermodynamic components associated with the strengthening and westward expansion of East Asia summer monsoon in the future. During winter, the increased P is mainly due to the vertical dynamic and horizontal thermodynamic components associated with the enhancement of vertical ascending motion and increased moisture. Water scarcity threatens 1-2 billion people living in drylands worldwide, with drylands in East Asia (DEA) having the largest population. Future climate change can alter the availability of water resources by altering the water cycle. Therefore, analyzing the water cycle's response to global warming during both summer and winter is vital for water management and climate adaptation, particularly in DEA. Under a high-emissions scenario, winter will experience an intensified water cycle, manifested as coherent increases in evapotranspiration (E), precipitation (P), runoff, and surface soil moisture. In summer, a weakened water cycle is anticipated in northwestern DEA, while southeastern DEA is expected to show the opposite trend. Furthermore, we offer a quantitative attribution of the response of E and P to global warming to gain a more profound understanding. The attribution of E indicates that the supply of energy and water commonly dominate the increase in E during summer. The attribution of P illustrates that the westward expansion of the monsoon with enhanced southeastern winds favors increased P during summer. In winter, strengthened vertical ascending motions and increased water vapor content provide favorable conditions for enhancing P. Water cycle intensification is accompanied by more frequent extreme events, necessitating increased attention. Future global warming will intensify the water cycle of drylands in East Asia in winter During summer, evapotranspiration will increase due to precipitation and vapor pressure deficit; in winter, it is dominated by the former In winter and summer, the dominant roles of the dynamic and thermodynamic components influencing future precipitation are different

2024

10.1029/2023EF004008

Feng, Huihui; Wang, Shu; Zou, Bin; Yang, Zhuoling; Wang, Shihan; Wang, Wei

Contribution of land use and cover change (LUCC) to the global terrestrial carbon uptake

SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT

Terrestrial carbon uptake is critical to the removal of greenhouse gases and mitigation of global warming, which are closely related to land use and cover change (LUCC). However, understanding terrestrial carbon uptake and the LUCC contribution remains unclear because of complex interactions with other drivers (particularly climate change). By proposing an innovative approach of trajectory analysis, this study aimed to isolate the LUCC contribution to terrestrial carbon uptake over different scales. Methodologically, global land was first divided into sub-regions of land transformations and stable land trajectories. Then, the carbon uptake change in the stable land trajectory was taken as a synthetic influence of climate change, which was used as a reference to isolate the carbon uptake alternation generated from the LUCC contribution in the land transformation trajec-tories. Finally, future LUCC and the terrestrial carbon uptake response were predicted under different devel-opment pathways. The results showed the global mean net ecosystem production (NEP) was 27.44 & PLUSMN; 36.51 g C m-2 yr-1 in the past two decades (2001-2019), generating 3.15 & PLUSMN; 0.88 Pg C yr -1 of the total terrestrial carbon uptake. Both the NEP and total carbon uptake showed significant increasing trends. Specifically, the mean NEP increased from 17.96 g C m- 2 yr -1 in 2001 to 37.37 g C m- 2 yr -1 in 2019, with the trend written as y = 1.20x + 15.20 (R2 = 0.62, p < 0.01). Meanwhile, the total carbon uptake increased from 2.35 Pg C yr -1 in 2001 to 4.13 Pg C yr -1 in 2019, which could be written as y = 0.12x + 1.93 (R2 = 0.56, p < 0.01). Climate change acted as the dominant factor for the trends at the global scale, which contributed 21.26 g C m- 2 yr -1 and 1.59 Pg C yr -1 of the mean NEP and total carbon uptake changes in the stable land trajectories (94.30 million km2 that covered 63.29 % of the global land area), and the historical LUCC contributed-6.30 g C m- 2 yr -1 (-40.85 %) and -0.046 Pg C yr -1 (-57.50 %) of the mean NEP and the total carbon uptake change in the land transformation trajectories (6.64 million km2 that covered 4.46 % of the global land area), respectively. The maximum LUCC contribution (-61.85 g C m- 2 yr-1) to the mean NEP occurred in the land transformations from evergreen needleleaf forests to woody savannas, while the maximum contribution (-0.034 Pg C y-1) to total carbon uptake was in the deforested regions from evergreen broadleaf forests to woody savannas. Eight SSP-RCP scenarios predictions demonstrated that future terrestrial carbon uptake would increase by an average of 0.015 Pg C yr-1 in 2100 due to global afforestation. SSP4-3.4 and SSP5-3.4 had the greatest potential for increasing carbon uptake, which is expected to reach a maximum increase (0.045 Pg C yr -1) in 2100. In contrast, the minimum terrestrial carbon uptake would occur in SSP5-8.5, which had the highest CO2 emissions. In conclusion, although relatively limited at the global scale, LUCC (particularly forest change) exerted an unneglectable role on terrestrial carbon uptake in land transformation regions. The results of this study will help to clarify terrestrial carbon uptake dynamics and provide a basis for carbon neutral and climatic adaptation.

2023

10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165932

Randev, Ashwani Kumar

Question 65 What on-farm techniques can increase water productivity? General report

IRRIGATION AND DRAINAGE

Technological interventions in tackling water scarcity in agriculture delve into the water productivity issue through available alternative water resources and on-farm techniques including both structural measures and agronomic practices accompanied by a sound water management approach. On-farm water management has been addressed under Congress Question 65 through deliberations on irrigation efficiency, soil moisture forecasts and hydrological predictions, efficient and timely distribution of water, controlling non-beneficial evaporation and reducing non-returnable losses of irrigation water at existing and state-of-the-art levels using technologies such as SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition) and sensor technology. A wide range of land, water and crop-related important parameters such as soil degradation, soil moisture, zero tillage, conservation agriculture, water demand and supply, future irrigation demand, biologically degradable mulching materials, cost-effective design of drip irrigation, water quality and cultivation practices through simulation for evaluating environmental impact and adaptation capacity of farmers were addressed. The major outcomes inferred increasing water productivity through optimizing agricultural water use that led to higher crop yields. IoT (Internet of Things) technologies can provide accurate and dynamic information of water consumption and rainfall in real time and have the potential of adapting to climate change scenarios.

2024

10.1002/ird.2951

Delhey, Kaspar

A review of Gloger's rule, an ecogeographical rule of colour: definitions, interpretations and evidence

BIOLOGICAL REVIEWS

Gloger's rule is an ecogeographical rule that links animal colouration with climatic variation. This rule is named after C.W.L. Gloger who was one of the first to summarise the associations between climatic variation and animal colouration, noting in particular that birds and mammals seemed more pigmented in tropical regions. The term 'Gloger's rule' was coined by B. Rensch in 1929 and included different patterns of variation from those described by Gloger. Rensch defined the rule in two ways: a simple version stating that endothermic animals are predicted to be darker in warmer and humid areas due to the increased deposition of melanin pigments; and a complex version that includes the differential effects of humidity and temperature on both main types of melanin pigments - eu- and phaeo-melanin. The blackish eu-melanins are predicted to increase with humidity, and decrease only at extreme low temperatures, while the brown-yellowish phaeomelanins prevail in dry and warm regions and decrease rapidly with lower temperatures. A survey of the literature indicates that there is considerable variation/confusion in the way Gloger's rule is understood (based on 271 studies that define the rule). Whereas the complex version is hardly mentioned, only a quarter of the definitions are consistent with the simple version of Gloger's rule (darker where warm and wet), and most definitions mention only the effects of humidity (darker where wet). A smaller subset of studies define the rule based on other correlated climatic and environmental variables such as vegetation, latitude, altitude, solar radiation, etc., and a few even contradict the original definition (darker where cold). Based on the literature survey, I synthesised the qualitative (N = 124 studies) and quantitative (meta-analytically, N = 38 studies, 241 effects) evidence testing the simple version of Gloger's rule (I found no tests of the complex version). Both lines of evidence supported the predicted effects of humidity (and closely linked variables) on colour variation, but not the effects of temperature. Moreover, humidity effects are not restricted to birds and mammals, as the data indicate that these effects also apply to insects. This suggests that the simple version of Gloger's rule as originally defined may not be valid, and possibly that the rule should be re-formulated in terms of humidity effects only. I suggest, however, that more data are needed before such a reformulation, due to potential publication biases. In conclusion, I recommend that authors cite Rensch when referring to Gloger's rule and that they make clear which version they are referring to. Future research should concentrate on rigorously testing the validity and generality of both versions of Gloger's rule and establishing the mechanism(s) responsible for the patterns it describes. Since humidity seems to be the core climatic variable behind Gloger's rule, I suggest that the two most plausible mechanisms are camouflage and protection against parasites/pathogens, the latter possibly through pleiotropic effects on the immune system. Understanding the processes that lead to climatic effects on animal colouration may provide insights into past and future patterns of adaptation to climatic change.

2019

10.1111/brv.12503

Paul, B. K.; Frelat, R.; Birnholz, C.; Ebong, C.; Gahigi, A.; Groot, J. C. J.; Herrero, M.; Kagabo, D. M.; Notenbaert, A.; Vanlauwe, B.; van Wijk, M. T.

Agricultural intensification scenarios, household food availability and greenhouse gas emissions in Rwanda: Ex-ante impacts and trade-offs

AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS

Rwanda's agricultural sector is facing severe challenges of increasing environmental degradation, resulting in declining productivity. The problem is likely to be further aggravated by the growing population pressure. A viable pathway is climate smart agriculture, aiming at the triple win of improving food security and climate change adaptation, while contributing to mitigation if possible. The Government of Rwanda has initiated ambitious policies and programs aiming at low emission agricultural development. Crop focused policies include the Crop Intensification Program (CIP) which facilitates access to inorganic fertilizer and improved seeds. In the livestock subsector, zero-grazing and improved livestock feeding are encouraged, and the Girinka program provides poor farm households with a crossbred dairy cow. In this study, we aimed at assessing the potential impact of these policy programs on food availability and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of 884 households across different agro-ecologies and farming systems in Rwanda. Household level calculations were used to assess the contribution of current crops, livestock and off-farm activities to food availability and GHG emissions. Across all sites, 46% of households were below the 2500 kcal MAE(-1) yr(-1) line, with lower food availability in the Southern and Eastern Rwanda. Consumed and sold food crops were the mainstay of food availability, contributing between 81.2% (low FA class) to 53.1% (high FA class). Livestock and off-farm income were the most important pathways to higher FA. Baseline GHG emissions were low, ranging between 395 and 1506 kg CO(2)e hh(-1) yr(-1) per site, and livestock related emissions from enteric fermentation (47.6-48.9%) and manure (26.7-31.8%) were the largest contributors to total GHG emissions across sites and FA classes. GHG emissions increased with FA, with 50% of the total GHG being emitted by 22% of the households with the highest FA scores. Scenario assessment of the three policy options showed strong differences in potential impacts: Girinka only reached one third of the household population, but acted highly pro-poor by decreasing the households below the 2500 kcal MAE(-1) yr(-1) line from 46% to 35%. However, Girinka also increased GHG by 1174 kg CO(2)e hh(-1) yr(-1), and can therefore not be considered climate-smart. Improved livestock feeding was the least equitable strategy, decreasing food insufficient households by only 3%. However, it increased median FA by 755 kcal MAE(-1) yr(-1) at a small GHG increase (50 kg CO(2)e hh(-1) yr(-1)). Therefore, it is a promising option to reach the CSA triple win. Crop and soil improvement resulted in the smallest increase in median FA (FA by 322 kcal MAE(-1) yr(-1)), and decreasing the proportion of households below 2500 kcal MAE(-1) yr(-1) by 6%. This came only at minimal increase in GHG emissions (23 kg CO(2)e hh(-1) yr(-1)). All policy programs had different potential impacts and trade-offs on different sections of the farm household population. Quick calculations like the ones presented in this study can assist in policy dialogue and stakeholder engagement to better select and prioritize policies and development programs, despite the complexity of its impacts and trade-offs.

2018

10.1016/j.agsy.2017.02.007

Mafi-Gholami, Davood; Pirasteh, Saied; Ellison, Joanna C.; Jaafari, Abolfazl

Fuzzy-based vulnerability assessment of coupled social-ecological systems to multiple environmental hazards and climate change

JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT

Climate change and combining related parameters of environmental hazards have left a considerable challenge in assessing social-ecological vulnerability. Here we integrated a fuzzy-based approach in the vulnerability assessment of mangrove social-ecological systems combining environmental parameters, socio-economic, and vegetative components from exposure dimensions, sensitivity and adaptive capacity along the northern coasts of the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman for the first time. This study aims to provide critical information for habitat-scale management strategies and adaptation plans by assessing the vulnerability of mangrove social-ecological systems. This study provides a methodology framework that consists of five steps. Step 1: We com-bined the fuzzy weighted maps of seven environmental hazards, including tidal range, maximum wind speeds, drought magnitude, maximum temperatures, extreme storm surge, sea-level rise, significant wave height, and social vulnerability. This map combination determined that the computed exposure index is from 1.07 to 4.32 across the study areas, with an increasing trend from the coasts of the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman. Step 2: We integrated the fuzzy weighted maps of four sensitivity variables, including area change, health change, seaward edge retreat, and production potential change. The findings show that the sensitivity index is from 1.40 to 2.64 across the study areas, increasing the trend from the Persian Gulf coast to the Gulf of Oman. Step 3: Besides, we combined the fuzzy weighted maps of three adaptive capacity variables, including the availability of migration areas, recruitment, and local communities' participation in restoration projects and education pro-grams. The result showed that the index value across the study areas varies between 0.087 and 2.38, decreasing the trend from the Persian Gulf coast to the Gulf of Oman. Step 4: Implementing fuzzy hierarchical analysis process to determine the relative weight of variables corresponding to exposure, sensitivity and adaptive ca-pacity. Step 5: The integration of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity and the vulnerability index maps in the study areas showed variation from 0.25 to 5.92, with the vulnerability of mangroves from the west coast of the Persian Gulf (Nayband) decreasing towards Khamir, then increasing to the eastern coasts of the Gulf of Oman (Jask and Gwadar). Overall, the results indicate the importance of the proposed approach to the vulnerability of mangroves at the habitat scale along a coastal area and across environmental gradients of climatic, maritime and socio-economic variables. This study validated the findings based on the ground truth measurements, and high -resolution satellite data incorporated the Consistency Rate (CR) in the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP). The overall accuracy of all classified remote sensing images and maps consistently exceeded 90%, and the CR of the 25 completed questionnaires was <0.1. Finally, this study indicates differences in vulnerability of various habitats, leading to focus conservation completion and rehabilitation and climate change adaptation planning to support the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG)-13 implementation.

2021

10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113573

Kalinowski, Thomas

The Green Climate Fund and private sector climate finance in the Global South

CLIMATE POLICY

Governments and international organizations are increasingly using public funds to mobilize and leverage private finance for climate projects in the Global South. An important international organization in the effort to mobilize the private sector for financing climate mitigation and adaptation in the Global South is the Green Climate Fund (GCF). The GCF was established under the UNFCCC in 2010 and is the world's largest dedicated multilateral climate fund. The GCF differs from other intergovernmental institutions through its fund-wide inclusion of the private sector, ranging from project design and financing to project implementation. In this paper, we investigate private sector involvement in the GCF through a qualitative exploratory research approach. We ask two main questions: Do private sector projects deliver on their ambitious goals? What are the tensions, if any, between private sector engagement and other principles of the GCF (most importantly the principles of country ownership, mitigation/adaptation balance, transparency, and civil society participation)? This paper argues that private sector involvement does not provide an easy way out of the financial constraints of public climate financing. We show that the GCF fails to deliver on its ambitious goals in private sector engagement for a number of reasons. First, private sector interest in GCF projects is thus far underwhelming. Second, there are strong tradeoffs between private sector projects and the Global Partnership for Effective Development Co-operation (GPEDC) principles of country ownership, transparency, and civil society participation. Third, private sector involvement is creating a mitigation bias within the GCF portfolio. Fourth, while the private sector portfolio is good at channeling funds to particularly vulnerable countries, it does so mostly through large multi-country projects with weak country ownership. Fifth, there is a danger that private climate financing based on loans and equity might add to the debt burden of developing countries, destabilize financial markets, and further increase dependency on the Global North.Key policy insights:The main problem of GCF private sector engagement is lack of interest from the private sector. For now, the GCF will strongly rely on public funds for its mission; thus establishing a strong track record of high impact climate projects should take priority over the promises of mobilizing private financial resources.Given the strong mitigation bias of private sector projects, public sector financing needs to be even more focused on climate adaptation.The GCF needs to ensure that the private sector's short-term interests in profitability do not undermine its own long-term goal of transformational change and development.The GCF needs to make sure that private sector projects are compatible with Global Partnership for Effective Development Co-operation (GPEDC) principles and its own rules on country ownership, transparency, and civil society participation.The GCF needs to pay more attention to building a sound institutional framework to ensure that climate finance does not add to the already existing debt burden, economic dependency, and financial instability of partner countries.

2024

10.1080/14693062.2023.2276857

Becker, Rike; Schueth, Christoph; Merz, Ralf; Khaliq, Tasneem; Usman, Muhammad; Der Beek, Tim Aus; Kumar, Rohini; Schulz, Stephan

Increased heat stress reduces future yields of three major crops in Pakistan's Punjab region despite intensification of irrigation.

AGRICULTURAL WATER MANAGEMENT

Climate change and variability threaten the sustainability of future food production, especially in semi-arid regions where water resources are limited and irrigated agriculture is widespread. Increasing temperatures will exacerbate evaporative losses and increase plant water needs. In this regard, higher irrigation intensities have been posited as a solution to mitigate climate change impacts in these regions. Here, using the agrohydrological model SWAT and the biophysical crop model APSIM, we show that this mitigation measure is oversimplified. We find that heat stress, driven by strong temperature increases, might be the dominating factor in controlling future crop yields and plant water needs. Our analysis encompasses agricultural areas of the Lower Chenab Canal System in Punjab, Pakistan (15,000 km2), which is part of the Indus River irrigation system, the largest irrigation system in the world, covering major cotton, rice and maize cropping zones. Climate models project a strong increase in temperature over the study region of up to 1.8 degrees C (+/- 0.5 degrees C) until the mid-century. Both models predict a decline in future crop yields for maize and rice crops, while cotton yields are less effected by rising temperatures and strongly benefit from elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations. For a high carbon emission scenario, the models simulate yield declines for maize of up to -10% (APSIM) and -19% (SWAT); for rice yields of up to -4% (APSIM) to -26% (SWAT), and for cotton yields of -1% (APSIM) to +11% (SWAT), until 2050, relative to the baseline scenario 1996-2005. Our modeling results further suggest that irrigation demands do not align with increasing temperature trends. Average irrigation demands increase less under higher temperatures. Overall, our study emphasizes the role of elevated heat stress, its effects on agricultural productivity as well as water demand, and its implications for climate change adaption strategies to mitigate adverse impacts in an intensively irrigated region.Plain language summary: Climate change is one of the most important challenge facing agriculture, and hence future food security. Farmers struggle more and more to ensure a reliable food production. This is especially true for semi-arid regions where water resources are limited but at the same time urgently needed for irrigation, such as in the Lower Chenab Canal Area, in Punjab, Pakistan. The search for adaptation measures to weaken the negative impacts of climate change on agricultural systems becomes increasingly important. One option could be the intensification of irrigation. We use two models to simulate crop growth processes under various climate conditions. Our results show that heat stress would be the dominating stress for plants in the selected study region and that this heat stress might even lead to a reduction in water demand. Intensive irrigation can not necessarily help to prevent climate change-related yield losses. The models further predict that rising CO2 can have a positive effect on crop yield by enhancing plant growth. Nevertheless, our results indicate that these positive effects could not compensate the negative impacts of heat stress under constantly rising temperatures.

2023

10.1016/j.agwat.2023.108243

Singh, Awani K.; Singh, Ranjay K.; Singh, A. K.; Singh, V. K.; Rawat, S. S.; Mehta, K. S.; Kumar, A.; Gupta, Manoj K.; Thakur, Shailja

Bio-mulching for ginger crop management:Traditional ecological knowledge led adaptation under rainfed agroecosystems

INDIAN JOURNAL OF TRADITIONAL KNOWLEDGE

Sustainability of organic farming depends on the organic inputs. As such, other than a few fertilizers and plant protection measures, there have been scanty resources available to farmers for continuing organic farming. Some farmers in India have evolved traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) based location specific practices to sustain their agroecosystems and continue organic farming. In this paper, an attempt has been made to explore TEK-led adaptations in bio-mulching to grow ginger (Zingiber officinale Roscoe) as a crop and to test empirically the best practices including identifying the best leaves and local bio-mulching materials applied by farmers. The role of TEK-led adaptive practices for controlling moisture loss, temperature regulation, reduced disease incidence, quality yield and economic aspects of ginger production are examined. The study was conducted in nine randomly selected villages of Champawat district, Uttrakhand (Western Himalaya). Data was collected using open ended questions in association with participatory rural appraisal (PRA) tools. Results indicated that farmers have developed major TEK led adaptive practices for organic ginger production after seeding in the field, namely using the leaves of oak (Quercus leucotrichophora A. Camus.), chir pine needles (Pinta roxburghii Sarg.), local mixed grasses (e.g., Chrysopogon fulvus (Spreng.) Chiov, [Cymbopogon distans (Nees ex Steud.) W. Watson], [Pennisetum glaucum (L.) R.Br. syn. Setaria glauca (L.) P. Beauv], [Heteropogon contortus (L.) P.Beauv. ex Roem. & Schult]. shrubs [Chromolaena odorata (L.) R.M.King & H.Rob.] syn. Eupatorium odoratum L.) and animal wastage. This last consists of mixed oak, bhimal (Grewia optiva J.R. Drumm ex Burret), kharik (Celtis australis L.), timala (Ficus auriculata Lour.syn. Ficus roxburghii Stud.) leaves, grasses, paddy and finger millet straw and cow dung and urine. Women were observed to be using more of these TEK led adaptive practices than men. Empirical field studies carried out on TEK led adaptive practices under rain-fed agro ecosystems of farmers revealed significant results including longer rhizome length (up to 6.50 cm), higher number of rhizomes per plant (35.30), higher ginger yield (211.50 q/ha), higher B:C (benefit to cost) ratio (1:2.18) and lower percentage of disease (bacterial wilt; soft rot and leaf spot) incidence (17.5%) in oak leaf mulch. Soil moisture conservation (44.75%) and optimum soil temperature (24.80 degrees C) were recorded as significantly better under the oak leaves for using bio-mulching as compared to all other TEK led bio-mulching practices for organic ginger production. The oak leaves used as bio-mulch in organic ginger increased yield by 43% and net returns by 61% as compared to no mulching (control). It is concluded that, under temperate climate and rain-fed agro ecosystems, TEK led adaptive practices by farmers in growing ginger are economically feasible, energy efficient and ecologically sustainable, through the addition of soil organic carbon. However, there is need for scientific and institutional promotion in participatory modes for such practices, with a provision for integrating these practices with science and policy on climate adaptation.

2014

Lodh, Abhishek

Simulating the impact of extended desertification on Indian hydro climate using ICTP-RegCM4.4.5.10 model

JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY

Presented here is the numerical study of impact of extended desertification of the Thar desert (a data scarce arid region), on the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) meteorology using a robust state-of-the-art ICTP - regional climate model (RCM) RegCMv4.4.5.10 coupled with Biosphere - Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) land surface scheme. Firstly, the evolution of ISM precipitation, mean temperature and soil moisture during June to September 2001-2010 is verified using Emanuel over land and Grell over ocean with Arakawa and Schubert (1974) closure, in combination with the two planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes, Holtslag and University of Washington - UW Turbulence closure model for PBL. Then the feedback due to extended desertification between land surface and PBL, during ISM regime is studied. The RCM simulations with Emanuel over land and Grell over ocean with Arakawa and Schubert (1974) closure in combination with UW PBL scheme, is able to properly simulate the rainfall, mean temperature JJAS climatology with bias in rainfall similar to 2 mm/day and bias in mean temperature is similar to 0.5-1 degrees C over the monsoon core region. Numerical experiments (control and design experiment) with the above mentioned combination of PBL schemes is performed for investigating the impact of extended desertification on the changes in the ISM precipitation, surface fluxes, circulation pattern, moisture fluxes and net radiation etc. In the extended desert design experiment, the land-use pattern in the model over Thar Desert (i.e. northwestern part of Indian sub-continent between Pakistan and northwestern India) is changed from crop/mixed farming and semi-desert to desert/semi-desert type of vegetation, mimicking extended desertification in the RegCMv4.4.5.10 model. Results show that due to increase in desertification over Thar deserts there is increase in albedo resulting from a decrease in plant cover, along with formation of anomalous anti-cyclonic circulation causes a decrease in JJAS rainfall (p < 0.01) over north, north-west India by -1 to -2 mm/day (similar to 25% reduction). Anomalous anti-cyclonic circulation over the Indian land mass in the extended desertification experiment causes less convective heating and is responsible for the decrease in precipitation (with respect to control experiment). The anomalous anti-cyclonic circulation developed covers northern part of Bay of Bengal resulting in decrease in moisture advection of the order of -12 to -18 kgm(-1)sec(-1) (similar to 10% reduction). This drives away all moisture from the nearby regions. The effect of extended desertification induced feedbacks on variability and dominant modes of variability of Indian monsoon precipitation and soil wetness is also studied and reported. Finally, it is concluded that the relative magnitudes of the changes in albedo and vegetation (or vegetation roughness length) are important determinants of the size of climate change due to prescribed extended desert landscape over Thar desert region of Indian subcontinent. The results of this numerical study provides a basis and reference study for LULCC and mitigation measure human beings need to undertake for climate change adaptation.

2021

10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126405

Ji, Tao; Li, Guosheng

Contemporary monitoring of storm surge activity

PROGRESS IN PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY-EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT

There is growing interest in storm surge activity related to catastrophic events and their unintended consequences in terms of casualties and damage around the world and in increasing populations and issues along coastal areas in the context of global warming and rising sea levels. Accordingly, knowledge on storm surge monitoring has progressed significantly in recent years, and this review, focused on monitoring the spatial and temporal variability of storm surges, responds to the need for a synthesis. Three main components are presented in the review: (1) monitoring storm surges from the viewpoint of three effective approaches; (2) understanding the challenges faced by the three monitoring approaches to increase our awareness of monitoring storm surges; (3) identifying three research priorities and orientations to provide new ideas in future storm surge monitoring. From the perspective of monitoring approaches, recent progress was achieved with respect to tide gauges, satellite altimetry and numerical simulation. Storm surge events can nowadays be identified accurately, and the surge heights can be calculated based on long-term tide gauge observations. The changing frequency and intensity of storm surge activity, combined with statistical analysis and climatology, can be used to enable a better understanding of the possible regional or global long-term trends. Compared with tidal observation data, satellite altimetry has the advantage of providing offshore sea level information to an accuracy of 10 cm. In addition, satellite altimetry can provide more effective observations for studying storm surges, such as transient surge data of the deep ocean. Simultaneously, the study of storm surges via numerical simulation has been further developed, mainly reflected in the gradual improvement of simulation accuracy but also in the refinement of comprehensive factors affecting storm surge activity. However, from the above approaches, storm surge activity monitoring cannot fully reflect the spatial and temporal variability of storm surges, especially the spatial changes at a regional or global scale. In particular, compared to global storm surge, tide gauges and satellite altimeters are relatively sparse, and the spatial distribution is extremely uneven, which often seriously restricts the overall understanding of the spatial distribution features of storm surge activity. Numerical models can be used as a tool to overcome the above-mentioned shortcomings for storm surge monitoring, as they provide real-time spatiotemporal features of storm surge events. But long-term numerical hindcast of tides and surges requires an extremely high computational effort. Considering the shortcomings of the above approaches and the impact of climate change, there is no clear approach to remedy the framework for studying the spatial and temporal characteristics of global or regional storm surge activity at a climatic scale. Therefore, we show how new insights or techniques are useful for the monitoring of future crises. This work is especially important in planning efforts by policymakers, coastal managers, civil protection managers and the general public to adapt to climate change and rising sea levels.

2020

10.1177/0309133319879324

Rurinda, J.; Mapfumo, P.; van Wijk, M. T.; Mtambanengwe, F.; Rufino, M. C.; Chikowo, R.; Giller, K. E.

Comparative assessment of maize, finger millet and sorghum for household food security in the face of increasing climatic risk

EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF AGRONOMY

Questions as to which crop to grow, where, when and with what management, will be increasingly challenging for farmers in the face of a changing climate. The objective of this study was to evaluate emergence, yield and financial benefits of maize, finger millet and sorghum, planted at different dates and managed with variable soil nutrient inputs in order to develop adaptation options for stabilizing food production and income for smallholder households in the face of climate change and variability. Field experiments with maize, finger millet and sorghum were conducted in farmers' fields in Makoni and Hwedza districts in eastern Zimbabwe for three seasons: 2009/10,2010/11 and 2011/12. Three fertilization rates: high (90 kg N ha(-1), 26 kg Pha(-1), 7 t ha(-1) manure), low (35 kg N ha(-1), 14 kg P ha(-1), 3 t ha(-1) manure) and a control (zero fertilization); and three planting dates: early, normal and late, were compared. Crop emergence for the unfertilized finger millet and sorghum was <15% compared with >70% for the fertilized treatments. In contrast, the emergence for maize (a medium-maturity hybrid cultivar, SC635), was >80% regardless of the amount of fertilizer applied. Maize yield was greater than that of finger millet and sorghum, also in the season (2010/11) which had poor rainfall distribution. Maize yielded 5.4 t ha(-1) compared with 3.1 t ha(-1) for finger millet and 3.3 t ha(-1) for sorghum for the early plantings in the 2009/10 rainfall season in Makoni, a site with relatively fertile soils. In the poorer 2010/11 season, early planted maize yielded 2.4 t ha(-1), against 1.6 t ha(-1) for finger millet and 0.4 t ha(-1) for sorghum in Makoni. Similar yield trends were observed on the nutrient-depleted soils in Hwedza, although yields were less than those observed in Makoni. All crops yielded significantly more with increasing rates of fertilization when planting was done early or in what farmers considered the 'normal window'. Crops planted early or during the normal planting window gave comparable yields that were greater than yields of late-planted crops. Water productivity for each crop planted early or during the normal window increased with increase in the amount of fertilizer applied, but differed between crop type. Maize had the highest water productivity (8.0 kg dry matter mm(-1) ha(-1)) followed by sorghum (4.9 kg mm(-1) ha(-1)) and then finger millet (4.6 kg mm(-1) ha(-1)) when a high fertilizer rate was applied to the early-planted crop. Marginal rates of return for maize production were greater for the high fertilization rate (>50%) than for thelow rate (<50%). However, the financial returns for finger millet were more attractive for the low fertilization rate (>100%) than for the high rate (<100%). Although maize yield was greater compared with finger millet, the latter had a higher content of calcium and can be stored for up to five years. The superiority of maize, in terms of yields, over finger millet and sorghum, suggests that the recommendation to substitute maize with small grains may not be a robust option for adaptation to increased temperatures and more frequent droughts likely to be experienced in Zimbabwe and other parts of southern Africa.

2014

10.1016/j.eja.2013.12.009

Manevska-Tasevska, Gordana; Duangbootsee, Uchook; Bimbilovski, Ivan; Thathong, Piyathida; Ha, Thanh Mai

A systematic scoping review and content analysis of policy recommendations for climate-resilient agriculture

CLIMATE POLICY

Climate-resilient agriculture (CRA) is among the top policy priorities for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in their food, agriculture, and forestry sectors. However, the strategies that have been adopted to date have failed to produce positive changes or alter climate change trajectories. Scientific evidence is crucial for evidence-based policy making in this arena and elsewhere. We undertake a scoping review to explore what is known from the existing scientific literature about the policy recommendations for CRA in ASEAN. We follow the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) guidelines for new systematic reviews. Furthermore, we conduct a content analysis to classify the policy recommendations into eight CRA policy categories and to investigate how the policies identified in the reviewed articles reinforce the climate resilience capacities (CRC) needed for CRA. The synthesis review is based on 47 papers. This research contributes to climate resilience literature, and explains how the results of this study could be applied in policy analysis to build CRC within the agricultural sector. The knowledge generated by this study can support policy design, and therefore support the building of an enabling environment for CRA for ASEAN and elsewhere. Key policy insightsScientific literature on CRA typically recommends policies that support communication and knowledge sharing and advance research and technology development, often in combination with risk management- and/or environmental/climate support.There is insufficient evidence on actual policies enabling CRA. This result may also reflect a lack of research on some of the identified CRA policy categories, such as agricultural production support, investment support, infrastructural support, land use regulation and certification.This synthesis review identifies literature addressing policy capacity to achieve CRA goals. Adaptability and transformability are key dimensions of policy capacity enabling responsive actions to climate change, mainly via social learning, in-depth learning and research and technology development. Literature pays little attention to anticipation and robustness, facilitating proactive ex-ante initiatives and coping for climate change; we argue that these dimensions of capacity merit further research.This synthesis demonstrates key gaps in research and understanding of CRA and related policies targeting capacity building, followed by a need to raise awareness of the importance of such policies. It also points to the need to enable preparation for climate-related crisis planning, through use of anticipatory policies and tools, such as climate predictions to inform planning of robust prevention measures.Last but not least, the synthesis identifies that representation across the ASEAN countries and the type of agricultural systems in is unbalanced; research from Vietnam and Malesia and research on rice production or rice in combination with other crops or shrimp are over-represented. We argue that research on climate change adaptation for other important agricultural production systems, covering the remaining ASEAN countries, is needed to fill this gap.

2023

10.1080/14693062.2023.2232334

Zhao, Siyao; Zhou, Tianjun

Are the Observed Changes in Heat Extremes Associated With a Half-Degree Warming increment Analogues for Future Projections?

EARTHS FUTURE

Projecting climate impacts of a half-degree warming increment is of high priority on post Paris Agreement science agendas. As the real world has already witnessed a 0.5 degrees C global mean surface temperature warming increment, the observed climate changes associated with the half-degree warming may be analogues for future projections. This hypothesis is examined by comparing the heat extreme changes in China derived from the observational records to projections of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) low-warming experiment, which is the first short-term stabilized simulation dedicated for the 1.5 and 2 degrees C warming targets. The results of the CESM historical simulations are also evaluated. From the perspective of spatially aggregated, the heat extreme changes in China under the historical 0.5 degrees C warming are detectable in observations. The nighttime extremes manifest more significant increase than daytime extremes. Heat extreme changes under the past half-degree warming increment are reasonably captured in the historical simulations with slightly weaker magnitudes. The changes in the intensity indices in observations are better reproduced by the historical simulations than the frequency and duration indices. For the heat extreme changes in the future 0.5 degrees C warming, the observational records can serve as conservative analogues in daytime extremes, while the nighttime extreme indices show comparable or weaker changes. The future reduction of anthropogenic aerosol emissions will amplify the increase of heat extremes in comparison to present day especially during daytime in China. Given the possibly intensified extremes associated with future aerosol reductions, more attention should be paid to the currently heavy polluted regions. Plain Language Summary Since the Paris Agreement called for limiting the future global warming under 2 degrees C and pursuing efforts to limit under 1.5 degrees C, great efforts have been devoted to exploring the benefits of the 0.5 degrees C less warming on natural and social systems. Since the world has already witnessed a 0.5 degrees C warming increment, whether the associated observed climate changes can be analogues for future projections is an interesting and important question. Focusing on the heat extreme changes over continental China, we revisit the observational data sets to evaluate the performance of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) historical simulations and then compare the observed changes with the CESM 1.5 degrees C/2 degrees C future projections. We find that the heat extreme changes under the past 0.5 degrees C warming increment are detectable in observations and can be well reproduced by the historical simulations. The changes of intensity indices in the observations are better reproduced by the model than the frequency and duration indices. For the daytime heat extremes, the observations only give the lower boundary for the projected changes in future 0.5 degrees C warming. China may experience severer increase in daytime heat extremes due to possible aerosol reductions in the future. Our results would provide useful information to climate change adaption and risk management.

2019

10.1029/2019EF001237

Tham, S.; Thompson, R.; Landeg, O.; Murray, K. A.; Waite, T.

Indoor temperature and health: a global systematic review

PUBLIC HEALTH

Objectives: The objective of this study was to identify and appraise evidence on the direct and indirect impacts of high indoor temperatures on health; the indoor temperature threshold at which the identified health impacts are observed; and to summarise the evidence for establishing a maximum indoor temperature threshold for health. Study design: This is a systematic literature review and narrative synthesis. Methods: A review of the published literature using MEDLINE, EMBASE, Global Health, PsycINFO, Maternity and Infant Care, Cochrane Library, CINAHL and GreenFILE databases was conducted. The search criteria were kept broad to capture evidence from all countries and contexts; no date or study design limits were applied, except English language limits. We included studies that specifically measured indoor temperature and examined its effect on physical or mental health outcomes. Evidence was graded using the National Institutes of Health framework. Results: Twenty-two articles were included in the review, including 11 observational, seven cross-sectional and three longitudinal cohort studies and one prospective case-control study. Eight main health effects were described: respiratory, blood pressure, core temperature, blood glucose, mental health and cognition, heat-health symptoms, physical functioning and influenza transmission. Five studies found respiratory symptoms worsened in warm indoor environments, with one reporting indoor temperatures higher than 26 degrees C, which was associated with increased respiratory distress calls being made to paramedics (odds ratio = 1.63, P = 0.056). Core symptoms of schizophrenia and dementia were found to be significantly exacerbated by indoor heat (the latter above a 26 degrees C cumulative exposure threshold). The absorption of insulin doses in people with type one diabetes was also significantly accelerated in hot indoor environments. Only five studies reported the temperatures at which health outcomes worsened, with thresholds ranging between 26 degrees C and 32 degrees C. However, owing to insufficient data and the heterogeneity of the included studies (design, population, setting, exposure measures, outcomes and location), meta-analysis and an upper threshold determination was not feasible. Conclusions: High indoor temperatures affect aspects of human health, with the strongest evidence for respiratory health, diabetes management and core schizophrenia and dementia symptoms. Exacerbation of symptoms in warm indoor environments has clinical relevance to at-risk groups and those caring for them. Care staff and facility managers need to be vigilant of high temperatures in care environments and should incorporate indoor overheating into their risk management and sustainability and/or climate change adaptation plans. The indoor temperature threshold at which adverse effects begin to occur remains unclear as studies seldom report the exposure-response relationship over a temperature continuum. Until there is extensive scientific data to support a maximum indoor temperature threshold, 26 degrees C may be the most suitable indoor temperature for at-risk groups in keeping with the existing guidance documents.

2020

10.1016/j.puhe.2019.09.005

Landaverde, Rafael; Rodriguez, Mary T.; Parrella, Jean A.

Honey Production and Climate Change: Beekeepers' Perceptions, Farm Adaptation Strategies, and Information Needs

INSECTS

Simple Summary Most crops grown globally require pollination to produce food, and honey bees are the most important pollinators. Without honey bees, the food supply would decrease and become more expensive. Climate change threatens honey bees by destroying their habitats and food sources. Therefore, beekeepers must implement farm management practices to adapt to climate change. However, in many developing countries, such as El Salvador, beekeepers lack information about climate change adaptation strategies. In this study, researchers interviewed nine Salvadoran beekeepers to understand how their perception of climate change affects their beekeeping production, the adaptation strategies they implement, and their needs for climate change-related information about beekeeping. The climate change-induced challenges beekeepers experienced included food and water scarcity and extreme weather events (e.g., increase in temperature, rain, and winds). As a result, honey bees are dying because they cannot find enough to eat/drink, their hives are damaged, and they are more prone to pests and diseases. To adapt, beekeepers reinforce their beehive boxes, relocate their beehives, and supplement the honey bees' food. The beekeepers expressed their need for help formulating supplementary honey bee diets and managing pests and diseases. Because they struggled to understand climate change-related information from the internet, they need information and demonstrations from local sources to improve their adaptation strategies and the health and productivity of their honey bees. Because climate change has severely impacted global bee populations by depleting their habitats and food sources, beekeepers must implement management practices to adapt to changing climates. However, beekeepers in El Salvador lack information about necessary climate change adaptation strategies. This study explored Salvadoran beekeepers' experiences adapting to climate change. The researchers used a phenomenological case study approach and conducted semi-structured interviews with nine Salvadoran beekeepers who were members of The Cooperative Association for Marketing, Production, Savings, and Credit of Beekeepers of Chalatenango (ACCOPIDECHA). The beekeepers perceived water and food scarcity, as well as extreme weather events (e.g., increasing temperature, rain, winds), as the leading climate change-induced challenges to their production. Such challenges have augmented their honey bees' physiological need for water, limited their movement patterns, decreased apiary safety, and increased the incidence of pests and diseases, all of which have led to honey bee mortality. The beekeepers shared adaptation strategies, including box modification, apiary relocation, and food supplementation. Although most beekeepers accessed climate change information using the internet, they struggled to understand and apply pertinent information unless they received it from trusted ACCOPIDECHA personnel. Salvadoran beekeepers require information and demonstrations to improve their climate change adaptation strategies and implement new ones to address the challenges they experience.

2023

10.3390/insects14060493

Farghaly, Dalia; Urban, Brigitte; Soergel, Uwe; Elba, Emad

Differentiating forest types using TerraSAR-X spotlight images based on inferential statistics and multivariate analysis

REMOTE SENSING APPLICATIONS-SOCIETY AND ENVIRONMENT

This study investigated the potential of applying statistical analysis tests, for example, two sample Z-test and the Factor Analysis (FA) tool, on the TerraSAR-X backscattering coefficient, for distinguishing between different types of forests and detecting changes in distribution and extent of them. Two sample Z-test is an inferential statistical test that determines whether there is a statistically significant difference between the means in the data from two independent groups. FA is a multivariate analysis that can examine the structure or relationship between variables. Twelve pilot plots for forests of 17 ha were surveyed in a water protection catchment near Hanover, Germany. The forest types were deciduous, coniferous, and mixed. In order to sustain groundwater quality, deciduous trees were planted over a period of several years to gradually replace the coniferous trees in the catchment area. Regular forest observations were required to ensure that the percentages of deciduous and mixed forests in this catchment area were increasing relative to coniferous forests. Fourteen dual-co-polarized TerraSAR-X (HH/VV) images were used to monitor the forests in the period from March 2008 to January 2009. The values of the backscattering coefficient (sigma(0)) for the test plots were statistically analyzed using the two sample Z-test and the Factor Analysis tools. The study showed that Factor analysis tools succeeded in differentiating between the coniferous forest and both the deciduous forest and the mixed forest, but failed to discriminate between the deciduous and the mixed forest. Only one factor was extracted for each sample plot of the coniferous forest with approximately equal loadings during the whole acquisition period from March 2008 to January 2009. However, two factors were extracted for each deciduous or mixed forest sample plot, where one factor had high loadings during the leaf-on period from May to October, and the other one had high loadings during the leaf-off period from November to April. Furthermore, the research revealed that the two sample Z-test differentiated the deciduous and mixed forests from the coniferous forest, and discriminated between deciduous forest and mixed forest. Statistically significant differences were observed between the mean backscatter values of the HH-polarized acquisitions for the deciduous forest and the mixed forest during the leaf-off period from November to April, but no statistically significant difference was found during the leaf-on period from May to October. Moreover, plot samples for the deciduous forest had slightly higher mean backscattering coefficients than those for the mixed forest during the leaf-off period. Applying the Factor Analysis and the two sample Z-test on the backscattering coefficient of multi-temporal TerraSAR-X data facilitates distinction of forest types, tracks changes in forest patterns, and estimates the extent of environmental disasters in forest regions. This accomplishes sustainable forest management, which can play an important role not only in preserving groundwater quality but also in achieving climate change adaptation goals.

2019

10.1016/j.rsase.2019.100238

Zhao, Dongxue; Devoil, Peter; Rognoni, Bethany G.; Wilkus, Erin; Eyre, Joseph X.; Broad, Ian; Rodriguez, Daniel

Sowing summer grain crops early in late winter or spring: effects on root growth, water use, and yield

PLANT AND SOIL

Context Drought and extreme heat at flowering are common stresses limiting the yield of summer crops. Adaptation to these stresses could be increased by sowing summer crops early in late winter or early spring, to avoid overlap of drought and heat with critical crop stages around flowering. Though little is known about the effects of cold weather on root growth, water use and final grain yield in sorghum.Objective This study aims to explore the effects of cold conditions in early sowing sorghum on crop and root growth and function (i.e., water use), and final grain yield.Methods Two years of field experiments were conducted in the Darling and Eastern Downs region of Qld, Australia. Each trial consisted of three times of sowing (late winter, spring, and summer), two levels of irrigation (i.e., rainfed and supplementary irrigated), four plant population densities (3, 6, 9 and 12 pl m-2), and six commercial sorghum hybrids. Roots and shoots were sampled at the flag leaf stage on three times of sowing, two levels of irrigation, and three replications, for a single hybrid and a single plant population density (9 pl m-2). Crop water use and functional root traits were derived from consecutive electromagnetic induction (EMI) surveys around flowering. At maturity crop biomass, yield and yield components were determined across all treatments.Results The combinations of seasons, times of sowing and levels of irrigation created large variations in growth conditions that affected the growth and production of the crops. Early sowing increased yield by transferring water use from vegetative to reproductive stages and increasing grain numbers in tillers. Cold temperatures in the early sowing times tended to produce smaller crops with smaller rooting systems, smaller root-to-shoot ratios, and larger average root diameters. Total root length and root length density increased with increasing pre-flowering mean air temperatures up to 20 degrees C. Linear relationships were observed between an EMI derived index of root activity and the empirically determined values of root length density (cm cm-3) at flowering.Conclusions Sowing sorghum, a summer crop, early in late winter or spring transferred water use from vegetative stages to flowering and post-flowering stages increasing crop water use later in the season. Root length and root length density were reduced by pre-flowering mean temperatures lower than 20 degrees C, indicating a need to increase cold tolerance for early sowing. The higher grain numbers in early sown crops were related to higher grain numbers in tillers. The EMI derived index of root activity has a potential in the development of high throughput root phenotyping applications. Sorghum sown early into cooler than recommended soils will reduce root and vegetative growth and transfer water use from vegetative to reproductive stages mitigating terminal water stresses, and increasing water use efficiency. Electromagnetic induction technology has a great potential for high throughput root phenotyping applications. To adapt to warmer climates, there is a need for sorghum breeders to include cold tolerance as a target.

2024

10.1007/s11104-024-06648-0

Gomez-Aiza, Laura; Martinez-Balleste, Andrea; Alvarez-Balderas, Leonel; Lombardero-Goldaracena, Alicia; Garcia-Meneses, Paola M.; Caso-Chavez, Margarita; Conde-Alvarez, Cecilia

Can wildlife management units reduce land use/land cover change and climate change vulnerability? Conditions to encourage this capacity in Mexican municipalities

LAND USE POLICY

Climate change and land use/land cover change (LULCC) are associated with local vulnerability, defined as the intrinsic tendency of a system to be negatively affected by an event or phenomenon, but this can be ameliorated by ecosystem conservation. In Mexico, extensive Wildlife Management Units (eWMUs) are environmental policy instruments designed to promote ecosystem conservation and rural development via the sustainable use of wildlife by local populations. However, evidence of the successful reduction of LULCC by eWMUs is contradictory, and there has been no investigation into their potential as an action to promote climate change adaptation. In this study, we focused on the overall patterns of LULCC associated with eWMU throughout the country and examined strengths and weaknesses of eWMUs as policy instruments to address climate change. In particular, we analyzed how differences in areas with eWMUs influence LULCC and assessed how eWMUs could contribute to reducing vulnerability, particularly in double exposure municipalities. We calculated the percentage of eWMUs per municipality from official information and estimated LULCC from vegetation changes between 2002 and 2011. We then used the Kruskal-Wallis test to find statistically significant differences in vegetation changes based on the percentage of eWMUs and performed between-group comparisons using a post hoc Dunn test. Although Mexico has 2456 municipalities, only 37% have eWMUs. Furthermore, 64% of Mexico's municipalities have lost vegetation cover, whereas only 36% have either gained vegetation or remained stable. In municipalities that recorded changes to the vegetation, those changes were, overall, minimal and involved less than 10% of the total area of those municipalities. In general, municipalities with less than 10% of their total area dedicated to eWMUs experienced higher vegetation losses than those with more than 10% of their total area dedicated to eWMUs. We detected twelve double exposure municipalities, i.e. they are vulnerable to climate change and lost more than 10% of their vegetation. Double exposure municipalities dedicated less than 2% of their total area to eWMUs as well. Our results suggest that incremental increases in the area dedicated to eWMUs may reduce LULCC and protect vegetation, particularly in double exposure municipalities. Based on the literature, some ecological, economic and socio-cultural factors may determine the success of eWMUs and strongly impact LULCC. Therefore, additional efforts must be made to enhance our understanding of ecological and climatic processes; habitats must be monitored using a standardized methodology; biological, cultural, economic and institutional diversity must be incorporated into the planning, implementation and monitoring of eWMUs; and agreements must be established to strengthen social organization and human capital. Taking all this into account, we suggest that reducing vulnerability and improving double exposure areas by increasing the number and interconnectedness of eWMUs could represent an effective strategic approach at the municipal level to address LULCC and climate change.

2017

10.1016/j.landusepol.2017.03.004

Coe, R.; Stern, R. D.

ASSESSING AND ADDRESSING CLIMATE-INDUCED RISK IN SUB-SAHARAN RAINFED AGRICULTURE: LESSONS LEARNED

EXPERIMENTAL AGRICULTURE

A defining characteristic of many rainfed tropical agricultural systems is their vulnerability to weather variability. There is now increased attention paid to climate-agriculture links as the world is focused on climate change. This has shown the need for it understanding of current and future climate and the links to agricultural investment decisions, particularly farmers' decisions, and that integrated strategies for coping with climate change need to start with managing current climate risk. Research, largely from an Association for Strengthening Agricultural Research in Eastern and Central Africa (ASARECA) project to demonstrate the value of such increased understanding, is presented in this issue of the journal. Key lessons from this research are as follows: 1. Statistical methods of analysis of historical climate data that are relevant to agriculture need not be complex. The most critical point is to describe the climate in terms of events of direct relevance to farming (such as the date of the start of a rainy season) rather than simple standard measures (such as annual total rainfall). 2. Analysis requires access to relevant data, tools and expertise. Daily climate data, both current and historical, arc primarily the responsibility of national meteorological services (NMS). Accessing such data, particularly daily data, is not always easy. Including stall from the NMS as research partners, not just data providers, can reduce this problem. 3. Farmers' perceptions of climate variation, risk and change are complex. They are keenly aware of variability, but there is evidence that they over-estimate risks of negative impacts and thereby Fill to make use of good conditions when they occur. There is also evidence that multiple causes of changes arc confounded, so farmers who observe decreasing crop production may not be distinguishing between rainfall change and declining soil fertility or other conditions. Hence any project working with farmers' coping and adaptation to climate must also have access to analyses of observed climate data (Foal nearby recording stations. 4. Mechanisms for reducing and coping with risks are exemplified in pastoral systems that exist in the most variable environments. New approaches to risk transfer, such as index-based insurance, show potential for positive impact. 5. Skilful seasonal forecasts, which give a better indication of the coming season than a simple average, would help farmers take decisions for the coming cropping season. Increasing meteorological knowledge shows that such forecasting is possible for parts of Africa. There are institutional barriers to farmers accessing and using the forecast information. Furthermore, the skill of the forecasts is currently limited so that there are maybe still only a few rational choices for a farmer to make on the basis of a forecast. With the justified current: interest in climate and agriculture, all stakeholders including researchers, data providers, policy developers and extension workers will need to work together to ensure that interventions are based on a correct interpretation of a valid analysis of relevant data.

2011

10.1017/S001447971100010X

De Laporte, Aaron; Schuurman, Daniel; Skolrud, Tristan; Slade, Peter; Weersink, Alfons

Business risk management programs and the adoption of beneficial management practices in Canadian crop agriculture

CANADIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS-REVUE CANADIENNE D AGROECONOMIE

Canada's agricultural business risk management (BRM) programs require significant public expenditure, with unclear consequences related to climate change adaptation and mitigation through the adoption of beneficial management practices (BMPs). This study examines the relationship between Canada's current suite of BRM programs and the adoption of practices that mitigate GHG emissions in crop agriculture. We review the impacts of agricultural insurance on climate adaptation and mitigation, identifying impacts on both the intensive and extensive margins of production. We consider five potential program modifications, including: (1) changes in producer insurance premiums in AgriInsurance for the adoption of practices that would decrease the actuarially fair insurance rate if they were properly incorporated in the calculation; (2) dedicated insurance products related to trials of specific BMPs; (3) adjustments to current programs to allow more whole-farm considerations and intercropping; (4) cross-compliance measures on AgriInvest tied to environmental education; and (5) reduced insurance coverage for unfavorable environmental practices. While the effects of these potential modifications remain uncertain, they will drive the data collection process necessary to ensure that Canada's BRM programs play an appropriate role in greenhouse-gas reducing BMP adoption and climate change adaptation and mitigation.

2024

10.1111/cjag.12349

Amiri, Nassima; Lahlali, Rachid; Amiri, Said; El Jarroudi, Moussa; Khebiza, Mohammed Yacoubi; Messouli, Mohammed

Development of an Integrated Model to Assess the Impact of Agricultural Practices and Land Use on Agricultural Production in Morocco under Climate Stress over the Next Twenty Years

SUSTAINABILITY

Climate change is one of the major risks facing developing countries in Africa for which agriculture is a predominant part in the economy. Alterations in rainfall patterns and increasing temperatures projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) could lead to a decline in agricultural production in many areas requiring significant changes in agricultural practices and land distribution. The study provided estimates of the economic impacts of climate change, compared these with historical impacts of drought spells, and estimated the extent to which the current Moroccan agricultural development and investment strategy, the Plan Maroc Vert, helps in agricultural adaptation to climate change and uncertainty. The aim of this study was to quantify the effects of climate change on the overall economy by using an integrated framework incorporating a computable general equilibrium model. A concomitant factor to climate change will be the increase in population and its distribution and level of consumption, which will also influence agricultural production strategies, the conversion of agricultural land, the type of irrigation, and technological development. We demonstrated how changes in cereal production and area, affluence, and climate (rainfall and temperature) can be acquired for 12 regions of Morocco and used to develop and validate an earth system model in relation to the environment and socio-economic level, which projects their impact on current and potential land use over the next 20 years. We used different mathematical equations based on cereal area and production, population, consumption (kg/person), and change in climate (temperature and rainfall) in bour and irrigated areas for the growing season of 2014 in 12 regions to project agricultural land use over the next 20 years. Therefore, several possible scenarios were investigated to explore how variations in climate change, socio-economic level, and technological development will affect the future of agricultural land use over the next 20 years, which in turn could have important implications for human well-being. Among the 12 Moroccan regions, only 4 had a surplus of cereal production compared to their local consumption. The increase in population will generate a cereal deficit in 2024 and 2034, thus lowering the average annual quantity available per capita of cereals from 204.75 to 160.61 kg/p in 2014 and 2034, respectively. Therefore, it is necessary to reduce the amount of cereals per person by 5 kg/p and 25 kg/p so that the 2014 production could satisfy the population projected in 2024 and 2034. We found that cereal production will decrease with increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation according to the simulated scenarios, which might not satisfy the growing population in 2024 and 2034. This study provides a practical tool that can be used to provide policy makers with advice on food security assurance policy based on our current knowledge of the impending onset of climate change, including socio-economic statistics and the agricultural constraints of cereals in the 12 regions of Morocco.

2021

10.3390/su132111943

Lei, Yalun; Zhou, Hongtao; Li, Qingqing; Liu, Yigang; Li, Ji; Wang, Chuan

Investigation and Evaluation of Insolation and Ventilation Conditions of Streetscapes of Traditional Settlements in Subtropical China

BUILDINGS

Global warming, the urban heat island effect (UHI), and the risks of fossil fuel depletion necessitate a re-evaluation of traditional settlements that have been adapted to local climatic conditions, topography, and available resources, including materials and construction methods, through passive strategies to achieve thermal comfort. Although vernacular settlements have received considerable attention, few have examined and evaluated their streetscapes. This study investigates the impact of topographical features and architectural forms on insolation and ventilation conditions in traditional settlements in China's southern subtropical climate. The aim is to explore traditional planning configurations of streetscapes at different altitudes to identify architectural forms and planning strategies that effectively improve outdoor users' thermal comfort conditions. For this purpose, case studies are conducted on three traditional settlements in Lingnan; the Lingnan region has a typical subtropical climate in southern China. The chosen cases represent the main features of different topographical conditions, architectural forms, and climate zones in the Lingnan. We systematically simulated the insolation and ventilation in these settlements' streetscapes on a monthly and quarterly basis and analyzed their sunlight hours, incident solar radiation, shading percentages, sky view factors (SVF), and wind speed. The findings show the following: (1) Specific terrains can affect streetscapes' shading percentages and wind speed. The mountain settlement (With an average elevation of 600 m) is located on a southeast-facing slope (10 degrees < slope < 20 degrees). It receives an additional 10% of incident solar radiation compared to gentle terrain. (2) Compared to settlements located in coastal hills and mountainous, plain settlements have better shading and ventilation conditions in streetscapes. In terms of insolation, plain settlements have denser building configurations and narrower, elongated street corridors with a height-to-width ratio (H/W) = 1.9 similar to 5.5 (the height-width ratio value as street's H/W (H = height, W = width); note that it is unitless), which can generate greater lower SVF (44.5%), and shading percentages (63.6%). Regarding ventilation, it is easier to create a cool lane (i) when the main street, oriented towards the dominant wind direction in summer, forms an angle <30 degrees with it, (ii) when the primary street follows a NE-SW longitudinal orientation, while SE-NW horizontal streets intersect and weave through it, and (iii) with a H/W = 3 similar to 4 resulting in wind speeds of 2.9 similar to 4.0 m/s. (3) All the streetscapes have overshadowing occurring in winter; similarly, varying sizes of calm wind zones are created in summer. To alleviate these issues, widening the streetscapes along the buildings can permit solar penetration and natural ventilation. (4) In summer, installing shading devices along the horizontal plane of covered street corridors with a H/W = 1 similar to 4 and N-S longitudinal orientation can provide an additional shading of 3.6-22%.

2023

10.3390/buildings13071611

Huang, Xi; Yin, Jiabo; Slater, Louise J.; Kang, Shengyu; He, Shaokun; Liu, Pan

Global Projection of Flood Risk With a Bivariate Framework Under 1.5-3.0°C Warming Levels

EARTHS FUTURE

Global warming increases the atmospheric water-holding capacity, consequently altering the frequency, and intensity of extreme hydrological events. River floods characterized by large peak flow or prolonged duration can amplify the risk of social disruption and affect ecosystem stability. However, previous studies have mostly focused on univariate flood magnitude characteristics, such as flood peak or volume, and there is still limited understanding of how these joint flood characteristics (i.e., magnitude and duration) might co-evolve under different warming levels. Here, we develop a systematical bivariate framework to project future flood risk in 11,528 catchments across the globe. By constructing the joint distribution of flood peak and duration with copulas, we examine global flood risk with a bivariate framework under varying levels of global warming (i.e., within a range of 1.5-3.0 degrees C above pre-industrial levels). The flood projections are produced by driving five calibrated lumped hydrological models (HMs) using the simulations with bias adjustment of five global climate models (GCMs) under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585). On average, global warming from 1.5 to 3.0 degrees C tends to amplify flood peak and lengthen flood duration across almost all continents, but changes are not unidirectional and vary regionally around the globe. The joint return period (JRP) of the historical (1985-2014) 50-year flood event is projected to decrease to a median with 36 years under a medium emission pathway at the 1.5 degrees C warming level. Finally, we evaluate the drivers of these JRP changes in the future climate and quantify the uncertainty arising from the different GCMs, SSPs, and HMs. Our findings highlight the importance of limiting greenhouse gas emission to slow down global warming and developing climate adaptation strategies to address future flood hazards. Floods with large peak flow or prolonged duration can have considerable impacts on infrastructure and ecosystems, and may become more severe in a warmer planet. However, due to the complex interplay between the climate system and hydrological processes, our understanding of future flood risk remains limited. We use copula-based approach to establish the joint distribution of flood peak and duration to examine future flood risk under varying levels of global warming. The results show that most catchments across the globe are likely to experience heightened flood risk in response to climate change, with an amplification effect on flood risk as temperature increases from 1.5 to 3.0 degrees C. Our findings emphasize the urgency of limiting greenhouse gas emission to adapt to future flood hazards under global climate change. We project future daily streamflow by a cascade model chain in 11,528 catchments across the globe We evaluate shifts in future global flood risk with a copula-based framework under different warming levels Global warming from 1.5 to 3.0 degrees C has a significant impact on flood intensification, with an amplification effect on flood peak and duration

2024

10.1029/2023EF004312

Berrang-Ford, Lea; Sietsma, Anne J.; Callaghan, Max; Minx, Jan C.; Scheelbeek, Pauline F. D.; Haddaway, Neal R.; Haines, Andy; Dangour, Alan D.

Systematic mapping of global research on climate and health: a machine learning review

LANCET PLANETARY HEALTH

Background The global literature on the links between climate change and human health is large, increasing exponentially, and it is no longer feasible to collate and synthesise using traditional systematic evidence mapping approaches. We aimed to use machine learning methods to systematically synthesise an evidence base on climate change and human health. Methods We used supervised machine learning and other natural language processing methods (topic modelling and geoparsing) to systematically identify and map the scientific literature on climate change and health published between Jan 1, 2013, and April 9, 2020. Only literature indexed in English were included. We searched Web of Science Core Collection, Scopus, and PubMed using title, abstract, and keywords only. We searched for papers including both a health component and an explicit mention of either climate change, climate variability, or climate change-relevant weather phenomena. We classified relevant publications according to the fields of climate research, climate drivers, health impact, date, and geography. We used supervised and unsupervised machine learning to identify and classify relevant articles in the field of climate and health, with outputs including evidence heat maps, geographical maps, and narrative synthesis of trends in climate health-related publications. We included empirical literature of any study design that reported on health pathways associated with climate impacts, mitigation, or adaptation. Findings We predict that there are 15 963 studies in the field of climate and health published between 2013 and 2019. Climate health literature is dominated by impact studies, with mitigation and adaptation responses and their co benefits and co-risks remaining niche topics. Air quality and heat stress are the most frequently studied exposures, with all-cause mortality and infectious disease incidence being the most frequently studied health outcomes. Seasonality, extreme weather events, heat, and weather variability are the most frequently studied climate-related hazards. We found major gaps in evidence on climate health research for mental health, undernutrition, and maternal and child health. Geographically, the evidence base is dominated by studies from high-income countries and China, with scant evidence from low-income counties, which often suffer most from the health consequences of climate change. Interpretation Our findings show the importance and feasibility of using automated machine learning to comprehensively map the science on climate change and human health in the age of big literature. These can provide key inputs into global climate and health assessments. The scant evidence on climate change response options is concerning and could significantly hamper the design of evidence-based pathways to reduce the effects on health of climate change. In the post-2015 Paris Agreement era of climate solutions, we believe much more attention should be given to climate adaptation and mitigation options and their effects on human health. Funding Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office.

2021

10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00179-0

Beneto, Pau; Khodayar, Samira

On the need for improved knowledge on the regional-to-local precipitation variability in eastern Spain under climate change

ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH

The Western Mediterranean is a climate change hotspot subject to generalized drying together with an increased torrentiality in precipitation with future scenarios pointing toward an extremization of these conditions. Projections indicate a further enhancement of differences between dry summers and wet autumns that already characterize this region. However, relevant uncertainties and discrepancies among projections exist including contrasting results complicating planification for future adaptation to climate change impacts in the Western Mediterranean. Both, the water supply for ecosystems and communities as well as the safety and well-being of the inhabitants are in danger. Detailed knowledge of the regional-to-local precipitation variability and evolution in the present climate together with an improved understanding of the underlying mechanisms, which is the objective of this investigation, will provide a better comprehension of projected future trends in the region. In this context, the present study provides a comprehensive evaluation of precipitation spatiotemporal characteristics and trends for the period 1951-2020 employing novel high-resolution gridded observations (SPAIN02) with a focus in eastern Spain, Hydrographic Confederations of Ebro (EBRO), Jucar-Segura (CHJS) and the Mediterranean Basins of Andalusia (CMA) that conform it from north to south. Particular attention is on the analysis of the Jucar-Segura (CHJS) basin. Results indicate a marked precipitation seasonality along the Spanish Mediterranean coast, with localized areas showing increasing trends, and a substantial drying during summer in the last seven decades reinforcing the already remarkable interseasonal variability characterizing the region. In contrast, moderate-to-heavy precipitation events have intensified in the last three decades for all seasons over central regions. Non-significant seasonal trends are identified for the winter, spring and autumn for the period under study, however, substantial intraseasonal variability dominates precipitation changes in these periods, particularly a significant mean precipitation decrease is observed in March and June. Interestingly, in the last two decades, summer precipitation presents a non-significant negative trend, with some areas over central regions showing an increase in precipitation contrasting with the general mean decrease observed during the period 1951-2020. The detailed analysis of the underlying mechanisms responsible for interseasonal and intraseasonal precipitation variations in the period 2000-2020 indicates that a frequency increase and intensification of orographically induced summer storms drive the observed summer precipitation increase in the JucarSegura basin. While the main changes during winter, spring, and autumn are principally linked to an intensification of precipitation events as a consequence of changes in moisture advection from the Mediterranean. Ongoing variability in this region can represent a mirror of the changes to come over similar areas around the world as a consequence of global warming.

2023

10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106795

Wikramanayake, Eric; Or, Carmen; Costa, Felipe; Wen, Xianji; Cheung, Fion; Shapiro, Aurelie

A climate adaptation strategy for Mai Po Inner Deep Bay Ramsar site: Steppingstone to climate proofing the East Asian-Australasian Flyway

PLOS ONE

The ecological functionality of the East Asian-Australasian Flyway is threatened by the loss of wetlands which provide staging and wintering sites for migrating waterbirds. The disappearance of wetland ecosystems due to coastal development prevents birds from completing their migrations, resulting in population declines, and even an eventual collapse of the migration phenomenon. Coastal wetlands are also under threat from global climate change and its consequences, notably sea level rise (SLR), extreme storm events, and accompanying wave and tidal surges. The impacts of SLR are compounded by coastal subsidence and decreasing sedimentation, which can result from coastal development. Thus, important wetlands along the flyway should be assessed for the impacts of climate change and coastal subsidence to plan and implement proactive climate adaptation strategies that include habitat migration and possibility of coastal squeeze. We modelled the impacts of climate change and decreasing sedimentation rates on important bird habitats in the Mai Po Inner Deep Bay Ramsar site to support a climate adaptation strategy that will continue to host migratory birds. Located in the Inner Deep Bay of the Pearl River estuary, Mai Po's tidal flats, coastal mangroves, marshes, and fishponds provide habitat for over 80,000 wintering and passage waterbirds. We applied the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) to simulate habitat conversion under two SLR scenarios (1.5m and 2.0m) for 2050, 2075, and 2100 for four accretion rates (2mm/yr, 4 mm/yr, 8 mm/yr, 15 mm/yr). The results showed no discernible impact to habitats until after 2075, but projections for 2100 show that the mangroves, marshes and tidal flats could be impacted in almost all scenarios of SLR and accretion. Under a 1.5m SLR scenario, even at low tide, if accretion levels decrease to 4 mm/yr, the tidal flats will be inundated and with a 2 mm/yr accretion the mangroves will also be inundated. Thus, important shorebird habitats will be lost. During high tide the ponds inside the nature reserve, which are intensively managed to provide high tide roosting sites and other habitats for waterbirds, will also be inundated. Thus, with a 1.5m SLR and declining sedimentation the migratory shorebirds will lose habitat, including the high tide roosting habitats inside the nature reserve. The model also indicates that the fishponds further inland in the Ramsar site will be less impacted. Most fishponds are privately owned and could be developed in the future, including into high rise apartments; thus, securing them for conservation should be an important climate change adaptation strategy for Mai Po, since they provide essential habitats for birds under future climate change scenarios. But Mai Po is only one steppingstone along the EAAF, and hundreds of other wetlands are also threatened by encroaching infrastructure and climate change. Thus, similar analyses for the other wetlands are recommended to develop a flyway-wide climate-adaptation conservation strategy before available options become lost to wetland conversion.

2020

10.1371/journal.pone.0239945

Erdos, Laszlo; Torok, Peter; Veldman, Joseph W.; Batori, Zoltan; Bede-Fazekas, Akos; Magnes, Martin; Kroel-Dulay, Gyorgy; Tolgyesi, Csaba

How climate, topography, soils, herbivores, and fire control forest-grassland coexistence in the Eurasian forest-steppe

BIOLOGICAL REVIEWS

Recent advances in ecology and biogeography demonstrate the importance of fire and large herbivores - and challenge the primacy of climate - to our understanding of the distribution, stability, and antiquity of forests and grasslands. Among grassland ecologists, particularly those working in savannas of the seasonally dry tropics, an emerging fire-herbivore paradigm is generally accepted to explain grass dominance in climates and on soils that would otherwise permit development of closed-canopy forests. By contrast, adherents of the climate-soil paradigm, particularly foresters working in the humid tropics or temperate latitudes, tend to view fire and herbivores as disturbances, often human-caused, which damage forests and reset succession. Towards integration of these two paradigms, we developed a series of conceptual models to explain the existence of an extensive temperate forest-grassland mosaic that occurs within a 4.7 million km(2) belt spanning from central Europe through eastern Asia. The Eurasian forest-steppe is reminiscent of many regions globally where forests and grasslands occur side-by-side with stark boundaries. Our conceptual models illustrate that if mean climate was the only factor, forests should dominate in humid continental regions and grasslands should prevail in semi-arid regions, but that extensive mosaics would not occur. By contrast, conceptual models that also integrate climate variability, soils, topography, herbivores, and fire depict how these factors collectively expand suitable conditions for forests and grasslands, such that grasslands may occur in more humid regions and forests in more arid regions than predicted by mean climate alone. Furthermore, boundaries between forests and grasslands are reinforced by vegetation-fire, vegetation-herbivore, and vegetation-microclimate feedbacks, which limit tree establishment in grasslands and promote tree survival in forests. Such feedbacks suggest that forests and grasslands of the Eurasian forest-steppe are governed by ecological dynamics that are similar to those hypothesised to maintain boundaries between tropical forests and savannas. Unfortunately, the grasslands of the Eurasian forest-steppe are sometimes misinterpreted as deforested or otherwise degraded vegetation. In fact, the grasslands of this region provide valuable ecosystem services, support a high diversity of plants and animals, and offer critical habitat for endangered large herbivores. We suggest that a better understanding of the fundamental ecological controls that permit forest-grassland coexistence could help us prioritise conservation and restoration of the Eurasian forest-steppe for biodiversity, climate adaptation, and pastoral livelihoods. Currently, these goals are being undermined by tree-planting campaigns that view the open grasslands as opportunities for afforestation. Improved understanding of the interactive roles of climate variability, soils, topography, fire, and herbivores will help scientists and policymakers recognise the antiquity of the grasslands of the Eurasian forest-steppe.

2022

10.1111/brv.12889

Gang, Chengcheng; Gao, Xuerui; Peng, Shouzhang; Chen, Mingxun; Guo, Liang; Jin, Jingwei

Satellite Observations of the Recovery of Forests and Grasslands in Western China

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-BIOGEOSCIENCES

The Grain for Green Program (GGP), which combats and reverses the landscape-scale habitat degradation by converting agricultural lands to forests and grasslands, was launched in 1999 in western China. An assessment of the extent to which the GGP has altered the vegetation cover and ecological functions in these regions is much needed. The present study initially analyzed land use and cover change of forests and grasslands over western China between 2000 and 2015. A variety of satellite-based ecological indicators, including net primary productivity, normalized difference vegetation index, leaf area index, carbon use efficiency, and water use efficiency, were used to reflect the biophysical consequences of the GGP in western China. Results indicated that the spatial extent of forests and grasslands increased by 13.97 x 10(3) and 11.13 x 10(3) km(2), respectively, which were mainly converted from deserts and croplands. The ecosystem functions of forests and grasslands showed an asymmetric response in northwestern and southwestern China. The normalized difference vegetation index and water use efficiency of forests, as well as the net primary productivity and water use efficiency of grasslands, increased significantly over this period. The GGP also has led to an increase in leaf area index and carbon use efficiency of forests and grasslands. The Loess Plateau and the Three Rivers Source area represent the most effectively recovered regions in western China. Rising precipitation rates have contributed to vegetation recovery to some extent, especially in northwestern China, whereas the GGP was the prominent reason for the improvement of ecosystem functions across the entire region of western China. Plain Language Summary Land degradation has caused severe environmental problems in many areas worldwide and severely restrains the sustainable development of numerous local economies. Land degradation also undermines the livelihoods and food security of people, especially in the economically underprivileged regions. Western China has experienced land degradation because of both its geological location and climatic conditions. To combat and mitigate this situation, the Chinese government implemented a series of national-scale ecological policies and programs during the late 1990s and early 2000s. Nearly 20 years have passed since the implementation of these projects. Therefore, it is appropriate to comprehensively assess the biophysical consequences of these programs. The present study aims to evaluate the extent to which the vegetation of western China recovered during the 2000-2015 period based on a variety of remotely sensed data streams. Results indicated that the spatial extent of forests and grasslands have expanded. The ecosystem functions of forests and grasslands showed an asymmetric response in the southwest and northwest regions of western China. These findings may provide guidelines for government agencies and policy makers involved in initiating adaptation strategies designed to adapt to climate change and to manage vegetation production.

2019

10.1029/2019JG005198

Rezaei, E. Eyshi; Gaiser, T.; Siebert, S.; Ewert, F.

Adaptation of crop production to climate change by crop substitution

MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES FOR GLOBAL CHANGE

Research on the impact of climate change on agricultural production has mainly focused on the effect of climate and its variability on individual crops, while the potential for adapting to climate change through crop substitution has received less attention. This is surprising because the proportions of individual crops in the total crop area have changed considerably over periods of time much shorter than those typically investigated in climate change studies. The flexibility of farmers to adapt to changing socioeconomic and environmental conditions by changing crop type may therefore also represent an alternative option to adapt to climate change. The objective of this case study was to investigate the potential of crop substitution as an adaptation strategy to climate change. We compared biomass yield and water use efficiency (WUE) of maize (Zea mays L) and pearl millet (Pennisetum americanum L.) grown in the semi-arid northeast of Iran for fodder production under present and potential future climatic conditions. Climate change projections for the baseline period 1970-2005 and two future time periods (2011-2030 and 2080-2099) from two emission scenarios (A2 and B1) and four general circulation models were downscaled to daily time steps using the Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator (LARS-WG5). Above-ground biomass was simulated for seven research sites with the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT 4.5) model which was calibrated and tested with independent experimental data from different field experiments in the region. The analysis of observations across all study locations showed an inverse relationship between temperature and biomass yield for both pearl millet and maize. Biomass yield was most sensitive to the duration of the phenological phase from floral initiation to end of leaf growth. For this phase we also found the highest negative correlation between mean temperature and biomass yield, which was more pronounced for pearl millet than for maize. This relationship was well reproduced by the crop model, justifying its use for the assessment. Due to the higher sensitivity of pearl millet to temperature increase, simulations suggest that the maximum benefit of crop substitution for biomass yield and WUE is to be gained for present-day conditions and would decline under future warming. The simulated increase in biomass yield due to substitution of maize by pearl millet was nevertheless larger than the yield decrease from potential climate change. Therefore, substituting maize by pearl millet should be considered as a measure for increasing fodder production in the investigated region. Differences in yields of crops that may substitute for each other because of similar use have been shown for other regions under current and potential future climatic conditions as well, so that we suggest that our findings are of general importance for climate change research. More research is required to quantify the effects for other crop combinations, regions, and interactions with other adaptation measures.

2015

10.1007/s11027-013-9528-1

Connelly, Angela; Snow, Andrew; Carter, Jeremy; Wendler, Jana; Lauwerijssen, Rachel; Glentworth, Joseph; Barker, Adam; Handley, John; Haughton, Graham; Rothwell, James

What approaches exist to evaluate the effectiveness of UK-relevant natural flood management measures? A systematic map

ENVIRONMENTAL EVIDENCE

BackgroundThis systematic map principally sought to understand the different forms of effectiveness that existing studies evaluate in relation to Natural Flood Management (NFM) in the UK with a supplementary question of whether studies engaged with climate change and future flood risk. NFM measures seek to protect, enhance, emulate, or restore the natural function of rivers as part of approaches to flood risk management (FRM). While there is agreement in both academic and practice/policy literature that NFM should be part of a holistic FRM strategy to address current and future flood risk, the specifics of how to expand the application of and consistently implement NFM successfully in practice are less well known. A core focus of this study is on how the effectiveness of NFM measures is evaluated in different studies based on approaches drawn from the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) literature: procedural, substantive, transactive and normative. The systematic map also examines how studies account for climate change, which is a crucial issue given the connections between NFM and climate change adaptation and resilience.MethodsWe searched 13 bibliographic databases, Google scholar as a web-based search engine, and 21 organisational sites. Articles were screened by title, abstract, and full text based on defined eligibility criteria. Checks were performed for consistency amongst reviewers. Forms of effectiveness were coded on the basis of the included studies in the systematic map. The quantity and characteristics of the available evidence are summarised with the frequencies of effectiveness forms for each NFM measure are presented in heat maps.Review findingsA total of 216 articles reported eligible studies that were coded as part of the systematic map. Overall, the systematic map shows that the majority of studies considered at least one approach to effectiveness; however, very few studies considered multiple forms of effectiveness. The systematic map also demonstrates that climate change is considered systematically by around one-quarter of studies although many studies make claims about NFM's effectiveness in the face of future climatic change.ConclusionsNFM can be effective in several different ways owing to their multiple benefits; however, there are evidence gaps around understanding these different forms of effectiveness. This is particularly marked for studies considering transactive and normative effectiveness. Interdisciplinary studies are more likely to consider multiple forms of effectiveness. This systematic map also found that whilst 75% of studies mention future climate change in their studies, only 24.1% contain a systematic consideration of the issue through, for example, using climate change projections. NFM is also at risk of climate change (e.g. through drought) and therefore it is imperative that study designs seek to incorporate consideration of effectiveness under future climate change. Policymakers should be made aware of the lack of understanding of how NFM measures perform under future climate change.

2023

10.1186/s13750-023-00297-z

Nicolay, Gian L.

Understanding and Changing Farming, Food & Fiber Systems. The Organic Cotton Case in Mali and West Africa

OPEN AGRICULTURE

Science should be capable of covering issues as diverse as farming systems, technology, innovation, climate change adaptation, poverty alleviation, extension, policy and practice, as they all relate to sustainable agriculture and development. Some years ago, the call for a new farming systems approach was raised to accommodate the principles of interdisciplinary, systems thinking and participatory research. Society calls for systems performance that provides stability and sustainability (SDGs!), multi-scale and territorial approaches and looks for solutions for critical issues such as employment, migration and inclusion/exclusion at the global level (World Society). We propose here a way in dealing with this complexity by addressing the mentioned problem from the communication and symbolic perspective, i.e. to consider the object within agricultural science but mainly observe the dedicated systems of communication. By using the concept of social systems, we can accommodate under it systems as diverse as farms, extension organizations, innovation patterns, (agricultural) sciences, policy and politics, farmer and indigenous knowledge, markets and value chains, but always in the form of communication. As such, we remain within a discipline with the potential to evolve towards a promising sub-discipline of agricultural sciences (or of sociology?). The relatively new farming approach of certified organic in combination with agroecology is relevant for family farms and small-scale entities. It depends much more on societal support for extension, technology development and policy coherence than commercial farms. Organic agriculture, with its standards, technological requirements and consumer preferences is nested in socio-economic and political networks, which makes it challenging for researchers to integrate the various components. This challenge applies particularly to countries with poorly developed institutions, weak organizations and within the context of poverty and rural exodus. We therefore use a unified approach under a single scientific system. This system observes, analyses and reports on communication aspects of involved (observed!) social systems (including networks and interactions) within the society of any given nation, including the realities of globalized markets. We are developing a case study based in Mali, in which we apply this method. The case is describing a planning process involving cotton farmers from the Sikasso region, the cotton industry, public and private extension systems, farmer organizations, local governments, the NARS (IER), FiBL, donors and the national institutions involved in climate change adaptation and food security. Various technological options of production (conventional, organic) and farming systems are available. The reflexive use of science dealing with human behavior may facilitate the pragmatic participation of researchers from various disciplines in addressing the uncertainties and opportunities that lie ahead of us and achieve the required impacts together with the practitioners.

2019

10.1515/opag-2019-0008

Quang, Nguyen Minh; Kawarazuka, Nozomi; Nguyen-Pham, Thien Ngoc; Nguyen, Thu Hoai; Le, Hieu Minh; Tran, Tho Thi Minh; Huynh, Thoa Thi Ngoc

Why adaptation falters: principles for climate change adaptation policy assessment in Vietnam

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGIES AND MANAGEMENT

PurposeRecognition that not every climate adaptation policy is a good one has shifted attention to new tools and methods to measure the adequacy and effectiveness of adaptation policies. This study aims to propose and apply and applies an innovative adaptation policy assessment framework to identify the extent to which climate adaptation policies in Vietnam exhibit conditions that are likely to ensure a sufficient, credible and effective adaptation.Design/methodology/approachIn total, 21 conditions, categorized under five normative principles and covering critical issue areas in adaptation domain, form the climate adaptation policy assessment framework. The principles were double-checked and tested in case studies through observations and analyses of policy documents to ensure that each condition should be distinct and not overlapping across principles. To see if the principles and attendant conditions were able to capture all relevant aspects of adaptation, the authors used structured expert judgment. In total, 39 policy documents pertaining to climate change adaptation were selected for qualitative document analysis. In-depth interviews with local officials and experts were conducted to address data gaps.FindingsThe study reveals major weaknesses constituting a reasonably worrisome picture of the adaptation policies in Vietnam since several critical conditions were underrepresented. These results shed new light on why some adaptation policies falter or are posing adverse impacts. The findings suggest that a sound policy assessment framework can provide evidence on what effective adaptation policy looks like and how it can be enabled. The framework for climate adaptation policy assessment in this study can be easily adjusted and used for different socio-environmental contexts in which new conditions for policy assessment might emerge.Social implicationsThe findings show underlying weaknesses constituting a reasonably worrisome picture of the adaptation regime in Vietnam. In the absence of mechanisms and measures for accountability and transparency in policy processes, adaptation in Vietnam appears more likely to be prone to maladaptation and corruption. While solving these problems will not be easy for Vietnam, the government needs to evaluate whether the short-term gains in sustaining the existing adaptation policies really make progress and serve its long-term climate-adaptive development goals.Originality/valueAlthough interpretations of adaptation effectiveness may be very divergent in different normative views on adaptation outcomes, the authors argue that a common, agreed-upon effectiveness can be reached if it is clearly defined and measurable in adaptation policies. Thus, the climate adaptation policy assessment framework proposed in this study is critical for policymakers, practitioners, donors and stakeholders dealing with adaptation to better understand the weaknesses in policymaking processes, pinpoint priority areas of action and timely prevent or prepare for possible adverse impacts of policies.

2024

10.1108/IJCCSM-05-2023-0063

Gunasekara, N. K.; Kazama, S.; Yamazaki, D.; Oki, T.

The effects of country-level population policy for enhancing adaptation to climate change

HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES

The effectiveness of population policy in reducing the combined impacts of population change and climate change on water resources is explored. One no-policy scenario and two scenarios with population policy assumptions are employed in combination with water availability under the SRES scenarios Alb, B1 and A2 for the impact analysis. The population data used are from the World Bank. The river discharges per grid of horizontal resolution 0.5 degrees are obtained from the Total Runoff Integrating Pathways (TRIP) of the University of Tokyo, Japan. Unlike the population scenarios utilized in the SRES emission scenarios and the newest representative concentration pathways, the scenarios employed in this research are based, even after 2050, on country-level rather than regional-level growth assumptions. Our analysis implies that the heterogeneous pattern of population changes across the world is the dominant driver of water stress, irrespective of future greenhouse gas emissions, with highest impacts occurring in the already water-stressed low latitudes. In 2100, Africa, Middle East and parts of Asia are under extreme water stress under all scenarios. The sensitivity analysis reveals that a small reduction in populations over the region could relieve a large number of people from high water stress, while a further increase in population from the assumed levels (SC1) might not increase the number of people under high water stress considerably. Most of the population increase towards 2100 occurs in the already water-stressed lower latitudes. Therefore, population reduction policies are recommended for this region as a method of adaptation to the future water stress conditions. Population reduction policies will facilitate more control over their future development pathways, even if these countries were not able to contribute significantly to greenhouse gas (GHG) emission cuts due to economic constraints. However, for the European region, the population living in water-stressed regions is almost 20 times lower than that in the lower latitudes. For countries with high population momentum, the population policy scenario with fertility-reduction assumptions gained a maximum of 6.1 times the water availability in Niger and 5.3 times that in Uganda compared with the no-policy scenario. Most of these countries are in sub-Saharan Africa. These countries represent 24.5 % of the global population in the no-policy scenario, and the scenario with fertility-reduction assumptions reduces it to 8.7 % by 2100. This scenario is also effective in reducing the area under extreme water stress in these countries. However, the policy scenario with assumptions of population stabilization at the replacement fertility rate increases the water stress in high-latitude countries. Nevertheless, the impact is low due to the high per capita water availability in the region. This research is expected to widen the understanding of the combined impacts of climate change in the future and of the strategies needed to enhance the space for adaptation.

2013

10.5194/hess-17-4429-2013

Ruhl, J. B.; Salzman, James

CLIMATE CHANGE MEETS THE LAW OF THE HORSE

DUKE LAW JOURNAL

The climate-policy debate has only recently turned its full attention to adaptation how to address the impacts of the climate change that we have already begun to experience and that will likely increase over time. Legal scholars have in turn begun to explore how the many different fields of law will and should respond. During this nascent period, one overarching question has gone unexamined: How will the legal system as a whole organize around climate change adaptation? Will a new, distinct field of climate adaptation law and policy emerge, or will legal institutions simply work away at the problem through unrelated, self-contained fields, as in the famous Law of the Horse? This Article is the first to examine that question comprehensively, to move beyond thinking about the law and climate change adaptation to consider the law of climate change adaptation. Part I of the Article lays out our methodological premises and approach. Using a model we call Stationarity Assessment, Part I explores how legal fields are structured and sustained based on assumptions about the variability of natural, social, and economic conditions, and how disruptions to that regime of variability can lead to the emergence of new fields of law and policy. Case studies of environmental law and environmental justice demonstrate the model's predictive power for the formation of new, distinct legal regimes. Part II applies the Stationarity Assessment model to the topic of climate change adaptation, using a case study of a hypothetical coastal region to demonstrate the potential for climate change impacts to disrupt relevant legal doctrines and institutions. We find that most fields of law appear to be capable of adapting effectively to climate change. In other words, without some active intervention, we expect the law and policy of climate change adaptation to follow the path of the Law of the Horse a collection of fields independently adapting to climate change rather than organically coalescing into a new and distinct field. Part III explores why, notwithstanding this conclusion, it may still be desirable to seek a different trajectory. Focusing on the likelihood of systemic adaptation decisions with perverse and harmful results, we identify the potential benefits offered by intervening to shape a new and distinct field of climate adaptation law and policy. Part IV then identifies the contours of such a field, exploring the distinct purposes of reducing vulnerability, ensuring resiliency, and safeguarding equity. These features provide the normative policy components for a law of climate change adaptation that would be more than just a Law of the Horse. This new field would not replace or supplant any existing field, however, as environmental law did with regard to nuisance law, and it would not be dominated by substantive doctrine. Rather, like the field of environmental justice, this new legal regime would serve as a holistic overlay across other fields to ensure more efficient, effective, and just climate adaptation solutions.

2013

MESSIAEN, CM

THE VALUE OF COMMON BEAN (PHASEOLUS-VULGARIS L) LINES ISOLATED IN HAITI FOR BEAN VARIETAL IMPROVEMENT

AGRONOMIE

Dry beans and peas belonging to Phaseolus, Vigna, Cajanus and Lablab spp are an important constituent of the diet in Haiti. Of these, the common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L) is cultivated on a widespread scale and is the most popular legume. No doubt for historic, sociological and agricultural reasons common beans grown in Haiti are extremely heterogeneous as regards growth habit, seed size and color, but have in common earliness and indifference to photoperiodicity. Haitian farmers grow mixtures of large beans (produced by dwarf plants), and medium-sized or small beans (produced by plants with indeterminate growth) for seed input saving, and to ensure yield regularity. From beans bought in the markets, or from superior plants chosen in the fields several hundred lines were extracted, 50 of which were preserved after severe elimination had been carried out in Guadeloupe (FWI) for powdery mildew susceptibility at the seedling stage or in southern France for summer heat or common mosaic susceptibility. The principal common bean categories grown in Haiti and the best lines found in each category are described: - large kidney-shaped beans (most of them mottled red) produced by dwarf plants (4 lines are described); - large ovoid beans (most of them mottled red) produced by dwarf plants (1 line described); - medium-sized black beans, produced by plants with indeterminate growth (4 lines described); - small-sized beans of various colors, produced by plants with indeterminate growth (4 lines described); - small-sized uniform red beans produced by plants which become climbing under good fertilization (one line described). Crosses were made in order to obtain still better lines for use in Haiti (and other countries), with tolerance to leaf diseases (such as powdery mildew, rust, and Isariopsis, Chaetoseptoria, Cercospora and Entyloma leaf spots), which in Haiti could result in a yield of 1 t/ha instead of 0. 5, with 0.30.30 fertilization, but without fungicide sprays. The general objective was to propose to the farmers a superior mixture' of the best lines. The programs were as follows: large mottled red-kidney-shaped beans; black beans; small pink or red-mottled beans (the best lines obtained, such as Salagnac 90 for the first program, have been described). A fourth program aimed at obtaining fresh shell-beans for the FWI: red beans, red or red-striated pods (dwarf or climbing lines following the use in various seasons). Most of these breeding programs involved breeding generations alternated between different climates: Haiti/southern France, Haiti/Guadeloupe, or Haiti/southern France/Guadeloupe. As a consequence of the earliness and day-neutral behaviour of the germplasm used and also possibly the alternated generations system utilized the lines resulting from these programs show a wide climatic adaptation. Good results were obtained in some parts of Africa (the highlands of Comoro and the Reunion islands; Burkina-Faso), and southern France where most of them are easily grown and have a satisfactory yield.

1992

10.1051/agro:19920702

Zimba, Sibongile; Dougill, Andrew; Chanza, Charity; Boesch, Christine; Kepinski, Stefan

Gender differential in choices of crop variety traits and climate-smart cropping systems: Insights from sorghum and millet farmers in drought-prone areas of Malawi

PLANTS PEOPLE PLANET

Societal Impact StatementThere has been limited research regarding the roles of gender and social networks in climate adaptation in African agriculture. The study examines how gender and climate risk awareness influence sorghum and pearl millet farmers' varietal trait and cropping system choices in Malawi. The findings reveal gender disparities in choices of crop variety characteristics. For male farmers, decisions on variety traits are primarily guided by quantity and economic benefits, while women focus on post-harvest quality and grain handling attributes. This work provides insights for developing gender-responsive crop varieties and climate-smart cropping practices tailored to societal needs and relations.SummaryClimate-resilient crop varieties and cropping systems are required to manage climate variability and to adapt to the increasing climate risks across Africa. Integrating gender perspectives on cropping technologies will assist in accelerating crop adaptation programs. Here, we focus on understanding gender-differentiated trait preferences and decision-making on cropping practices of sorghum and pearl millet producers in southern Malawi.The study employs a convergent mixed research methods design in which both quantitative and qualitative data were collected, analyzed, and interpreted.Our analysis reveals clear gender differences and preferences in crop traits and cropping systems. Male farmers prefer traits based on economic gains, notably yield and grain size. Female farmers target characteristics based on both agronomic and post-harvest grain characteristics to ensure the sustainability of household food intake. We also identify gender inequalities in decision-making regarding crop production practices and preferential access to knowledge in favor of male farmers.We show that gender norms and climate risk knowledge influence farmers' decision-making in selecting crop traits and practices, as well as accessibility to resources. Gendered inequality in decision-making goes beyond cropping practices to socially constructed rules of resource accessibility and restricted mobility. We conclude that efforts to improve crop adaptation and resilience to climate change in vulnerable dryland regions must pay greater attention to the processes and relations between gender and climate change knowledge bases. There has been limited research regarding the roles of gender and social networks in climate adaptation in African agriculture. The study examines how gender and climate risk awareness influence sorghum and pearl millet farmers' varietal trait and cropping system choices in Malawi. The findings reveal gender disparities in choices of crop variety characteristics. For male farmers, decisions on variety traits are primarily guided by quantity and economic benefits, while women focus on post-harvest quality and grain handling attributes. This work provides insights for developing gender-responsive crop varieties and climate-smart cropping practices tailored to societal needs and relations.image

2023

10.1002/ppp3.10467

You, Yujia; Ting, Mingfang

Observed Trends in the South Asian Monsoon Low-Pressure Systems and Rainfall Extremes Since the Late 1970s

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

The core Indian monsoon region receives more than half of the rainfall extremes from low-pressure systems (LPSs), which typically form over the Bay of Bengal and propagate upstream against the time-mean low-level westerlies. Yet, the relationship between the trends of LPSs and rainfall extremes remains uncertain. Using two tracking algorithms and reanalyses-derived LPSs, we find that LPS activity and extreme rainfall exhibit coherent trends during the post-1979 satellite era. Over time, the LPSs propagate preferentially into south-central India rather than north-central India, imparting a corresponding dipole footprint in rainfall extremes. Consistent with existing theories that the diabatic heating is instrumental in shifting the LPSs west-southwestward, the LPSs traveling through south-central India have stronger updrafts on their west-southwestern flank than those passing through north-central India. The increased frequency of LPSs propagating into south-central India is likely due to a strengthened cross-equatorial moisture transport, which favors stronger storm ascents. Plain Language Summary The South Asian synoptic-scale low-pressure systems (LPSs), which typically form over the Bay of Bengal and propagate upstream against the time-mean low-level westerlies, produce more than half of the summer rainfall extremes over the densely populated central India. Given the vulnerability of societies in this region to rainfall extremes, investigating the connection between LPSs and extreme rainfall regarding their long-term trends has important implications for climate adaptation. Using two different tracking algorithms and reanalyses-derived LPS tracks, we find that the trends of extreme rainfall and LPS activity exhibit a strong coherence during the post-1979 satellite era. Specifically, the LPSs prefer to propagate into south-central India than north-central India over time, imparting a corresponding dipole footprint in rainfall extremes. In agreement with previous studies that the LPS propagation is a combined effect of the northwestward-propagating component due to horizontal nonlinear adiabatic advection and the southwestward-propagating component due to diabatic heating, we notice that the LPSs migrating through the south-central India have stronger updrafts on their west-southwestern flank compared to those passing through north-central India. Our results indicate that the increasing number of LPSs propagating into south-central India is likely due to a strengthened cross-equatorial moisture transport, which provides a wetter environment and favors stronger storm ascents. Key Points An extreme rainfall dipole with positive trends over south-central India and negative trends over north-central India is observed since 1979 The extreme rainfall dipole aligns with the trends in the number of Indian monsoon low-pressure systems passing through the two regions The changing LPS translation is likely associated with a wetter environment owing to a strengthened cross-equatorial moisture transport

2021

10.1029/2021GL092378

Novick, Kimberly A.; Katul, Gabriel G.

The Duality of Reforestation Impacts on Surface and Air Temperature

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-BIOGEOSCIENCES

Evidence is mounting that temperate-zone reforestation cools surface temperature (T-surf), mitigating deleterious effects of climate warming. While T-surf drives many biophysical processes, air temperature (T-a) is an equally important target for climate mitigation and adaptation. Whether reductions in T-surf translate to reductions in T-a remains complex, fraught by several nonlinear and intertwined processes. In particular, forest canopy structure strongly affects near-surface temperature gradients, complicating cross-site comparison. Here the influence of reforestation on T-a is assessed by targeting temperature metrics that are less sensitive to local canopy effects. Specifically, we consider the aerodynamic temperature (T-aero), estimated using a novel procedure that does not rely on the assumptions of Monin-Obukhov similarity theory, as well as the extrapolated temperature into the surface layer (T-extrap). The approach is tested with flux tower data from a grass field, pine plantation, and mature hardwood stand co-located in the Duke Forest (North Carolina, USA). During growing season daytime periods, T-surf is 4-6 degrees C cooler, and T-aero and near-surface T-extrap are 2-3 degrees C cooler, in the forests relative to the grassland. During the dormant season, daytime differences are smaller but still substantial. At night, differences in T-aero are small, and near-surface T-extrap is warmer over forests than grasslands during the growing season (by 0.5 to 1 degrees C). Finally, the influence of land cover on T-extrap at the interface between the surface and mixed layer is small. Overall, reforestation appears to provide a meaningful opportunity for adaption to warmer daytime T-a in the southeastern United States, especially during the growing season. Plain Language Summary Reforestation-the process of reestablishing trees where they once dominated-has long been viewed as a strategy to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. Recently, attention has focused on understanding if reforestation also offers a direct temperature cooling benefit. By using more water (a cooling process) and increasing the transfer of heat energy away from the surface, forests may offer a meaningful opportunity for local climate mitigation and adaptation. Evidence is mounting that indeed, in the temperature and tropical zones, the surface of forests is cooler than grasslands and croplands. However, due to confounding effects of forest canopies on wind and temperature profiles near the surface, it has previously been hard to assess if forests also cool the air. Here we present a new approach that accounts for canopy effects, allowing for a more direct assessment of the potential for reforestation to cool near-surface air temperature. Using a case study from the North Carolina Piedmont, we find that while the air cooling effect of forests is not a large as the surface cooling effect, it is still on the order of 2-3 degrees C during summer daytime periods-times when the need for climate adaptation strategies are

2020

10.1029/2019JG005543