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Over the past two decades, it has been the endeavour of the Reserve Bank to strengthen the monetary transmission process, but these efforts have yet not yielded the desired results. The transmission from the policy repo rate to bank lending rates, which is the dominant transmission channel in India, has remained a matter of concern.
With the recent explicit objective of price stability mandated by the legislature, the issue of smooth monetary transmission has assumed an added significance. 7 Acharya, Viral V (2017), “The Unfinished Agenda: Restoring Public Sector Bank Health in India”, 8th R K Talwar Memorial Lecture.
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If overheating of those economies cannot be retrained successfully through somewhat tightened policy conduct, from a longer-term perspective, there is a risk that an unwinding activity from the excess will become large and those economies will be forced to make sharp and substantial adjustments. Second, developments in advanced economies.
In the United States and Europe, through the mid-2000s while asset prices including real estate prices were rising, households made excessive borrowing and home purchases, and financial institutions increased lending to an extent that can be seen as excessive from now. It was the generation of the so-called credit bubble.
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In order to achieve our goal we have: Refreshed our Diversity, Equity and Inclusion strategy; Commenced measuring critical areas of activity for gender and ethnic pay gaps; Commenced a Women Leaders programme; and Piloted a number of programmes in unconscious bias and cultural intelligence. Te Ao Mori We have also continued to build out our Te Ao Mori strategy.
* * * Introduction I would like to thank the Banque Centrale du Luxembourg for the invitation to speak here today. It gives me great pleasure to congratulate the Banque Centrale du Luxembourg on its tenth anniversary. It is a great honour for me to contribute to the Pierre Werner Lecture and to address such a distinguished audience on this occasion.
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After several years of subdued pass-through of intermediate costs to consumer prices, margin pressure appears to be reversing. Alongside stronger economic growth than expected, these developments raise the prospect that higher import prices feed through more directly to consumer prices.
But beyond that, I do not see a strong case today for further fiscal centralisation. There are three reasons for this. First, fiscal discipline starts at home. Most citizens do not want decisions on taxing and spending to be made at the European level, at least for the time being. This means that governments have to take responsibility for delivering sound budgetary policies.
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It is very difficult to tell which of these explanations, or some combination of them, is on the mark and whether there are unknown fourth or fifth explanations. In each case there is an international self-interest argument to explain the situation, and it is difficult to assess the durability of this self-interest.
The co-dependency view could have a natural stopping point when foreign central banks begin to worry about their heavy asset concentration in dollar-denomination assets and diversify their stock. The world-saving view could have a natural stopping point when the populations of the accumulating countries begin to retire, run down their assets, and sell their dollar-denominated assets to support the consumption of retirees.
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• Third, what is also important is an in-depth exchange of information as well as cooperation among debt managers, institutional investors, market associations, on the one hand, and the IMF, the World Bank and multilateral development banks, on the other.
In his summary section, he declared: “Continuous and self-sustaining improvement in production and in the real standards of living can be achieved in Mauritius only if over the next five years or so there is a relentless effort to introduce all those economic reforms which are essential to set this process of economic growth to work.
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BIS Review 82/2010 5 In addition much will depend on how these extra savings are invested, and whether this is domestically or internationally. Financial markets do not judge our savings balance directly, but rather through its funding implications and its contributions to the external balance.
The result 2 BIS Review 90/2008 would surely have been that resource and energy prices, and CPI inflation everywhere, would now be lower than they are. Even now, the current situation could be handled quite well by widespread use of a flexible inflation-targeting approach.
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If the outlook for the banks is to be improved, the process of overhauling Basel III also needs to be brought to a swift close this year. First, the revised framework will provide banks with greater stability. Much has already been achieved in this regard, as I have already pointed out.
And employers’ input has influenced work across the Fed System, including the Cleveland Fed, as they look at how skills on the lower end of the pay scale can transfer to higher-earning jobs. So from me, and on behalf of my colleagues: Thank you for your time today and for your ongoing insight.
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Deflation will reduce the rate of return on investment in businesses and in risk assets such as stocks on the one hand, but on the other hand increase the real rate of return on cash and deposits, for which nominal values do not decrease.
Therefore, for firms and households, it becomes a rational behavior to restrain business fixed investment and consumption and to hold surplus funds in the form of cash and deposits.
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Over the past three years, the PBOC and relevant European agencies have continued to harmonize the standards of green finance between China and Europe, and jointly published the CGT in 2021 and an updated version in June 2022. The latest version of CGT is 80 percent aligned with the European version.
Conclusion It is clear that it will take all of us working together to solve the problems that face communities today. Collaboration among government, nonprofits, and our partners in the private sector should focus on innovative ideas that can address the changing conditions of our communities. As the nature of problems change, we all need to be flexible and modify our responses.
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The reason for these panics, arguably, was the inflexibility of the banking system, more specifically limits on the maximum amount of currency outstanding associated with a specie reserve, whose limited quantity acted as a severe, and often sudden, constraint whenever conditions put a stress on liquidity.
To do this, we need to lay the groundwork on two fronts. One is about information disclosure. The PBC plans to set up a mandatory disclosure system with uniform standards, and promote greater information sharing between financial institutions and companies. We will also strengthen international coordination under the G20 framework. The other is about green finance taxonomy.
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 The Bank continues to expect consumer spending to slow to a pace more consistent with income growth.  Business fixed investment has been more subdued than expected and its level is still depressed.
The major milestone that enabled Uganda to move towards full compliance with the Basel Core Principles was the enactment of the new Financial Institutions Act (FIA, 2004). In addition Bank of Uganda fully shifted to the risk based supervision approach since January 2003.
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For example, banks will not be able to confirm that they meet the "chiefly compensated" standard in the trust and fiduciary exception until they review all of their compensation earned at the end of the year.
I will start with a few comments on how the recovery is likely to unfold and the forces that will be driving it, and what this outlook means in terms of the output gap. Then I'd like to look at Canada's growth trajectory beyond the recovery by focusing on two key variables that affect both potential and actual output – labour input and productivity.
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With regard to corporate finance, while funding needs for real economic activities seem to be decreasing, some firms, especially large ones, are seeking to secure ample on-hand liquidity to prepare for unexpected situations. Reflecting such increase in credit demand, the growth rate in M2+CD has slightly recovered since the summer of 1998.
However, Japanese financial institutions have become more cautious in extending loans, facing up severe fund-raising environments and deteriorating business conditions of borrower companies. While especially large firms are steadily increasing the issuance of commercial paper and corporate bonds, small and medium-sized firms and relatively low-rated ones continue to face difficult conditions for fund-raising in capital markets.
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However, given that prices have BIS central bankers’ speeches 5 risen due to the consumption tax hike, we often hear the question from consumers why, on top of that, the Bank is aiming at 2 percent inflation.
In addition, with supply constraints such as labor shortages becoming more pronounced, some ask whether it is desirable to have inflation while growth remains low. Let me respond to these questions. Why aim at 2 percent?
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But then, a flow of stronger-than-expected data, both here and abroad, resulted in a shift in the distribution of possible future outcomes for the cash rate. In particular, these data implied that there was a reasonable probability of an increase in the cash rate before 2024.
Euro area enlargement adds to the role of the euro and the European economy, which is particularly important at a time of increased geopolitical tensions. The euro remains the second most widely used currency for trade invoicing, crossborder lending and foreign exchange trading, and holds the second largest share of global foreign exchange reserves, after the US dollar.
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At the same time, this tracker shows some tentative signs of easing in the latest readings.
In view of these developments, the December 2022 Eurosystem staff projections were based on an assessment that compensation per employee growth will increase from 4.5 per cent in 2022 to 5.2 per cent in 2023, 4.5 per cent in 2024 and 3.9 per cent in 2025 and unit labour costs by 3.2, 5.0, 3.1 and 2.6 per cent, respectively.
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Thus, they contributed critically to containing the spreading of financial instability. This resilience, however, was not a “dues ex machine”. It was the outcome of well designed international standards for market infrastructures. Still, we need to closely analyse the lessons from the crisis also in this area – e.g.
in terms of market infrastructure risk management and transparency and the arrangements for cross-border cooperation among authorities. These lessons will be incorporated in the global CPSS-IOSCO recommendations for financial market infrastructures to be issued early next year. Despite the good performance of market infrastructures, there is a need to further develop highly resilient market infrastructures, particularly in the field of OTC derivatives.
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But in times of stress, the loss rate on CRE can jump considerably higher BIS Review 95/2006 1 relative to the good years, compared with the behavior of other types of loans.
As banks' concentration of CRE grows, they must upgrade their portfolio risk management practices, especially monitoring proposed projects and conditions in the sector of the CRE market in which they are lending. Since CRE losses tend to cluster in times of stress, bankers must focus more intently on their risk appetite for losses as their concentration grows.
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Under what conditions would this forecast materialize? The primary assumption of the NBU Board is that Ukraine will continue to make progress on its cooperation with the IMF. IMF financing was a significant catalyst of the Ukrainian economy in 2020–2021.
Cooperation with the IMF stands to be at least as important in the years ahead, especially as geopolitical tensions loom large and competition for capital between EMs and other countries intensifies amid the tighter monetary policies pursued by central banks around the globe.
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Putting the federal budget on a sustainable path when the economy is strong would help ensure that policymakers have the space to use fiscal policy to assist in stabilizing the economy during a downturn. A more sustainable federal budget could also support the economy’s growth over the long term. Finally, I will briefly review our planned technical operations to implement monetary policy.
The February Monetary Policy Report provides details of our operations to date. Last October, the FOMC announced a plan to purchase Treasury bills and conduct repo operations. These actions have been successful in providing an ample supply of reserves to the banking system and effective control of the federal funds rate.
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The impact 2 BIS Review 2/2005 of such flows on the stock markets is discernible, but perhaps less evident at this juncture in corporate ownership and control.
The possible issues that need to be considered if one were to achieve a better management of non-debt components of capital flows that will address emerging concerns are: First, a view needs to be taken on the quantity and quality of FII flows.
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While serving the SUERF’s aim of promoting contacts and discussions on monetary and financial issues, the topic of this conference covers the most crucial, and most rapidly changing, elements of present developments in the EU, namely i) the evolving composition of the EU and ultimately the euro area, ii) the prospects for European finance and finally, iii) issues of governance – and I am looking forward to hearing the results of today’s discussions.
On the back of such performance, a number of initiatives have taken place in the region to build a safety net, thereby raising its capacity for crisis management. These initiatives are namely (i) the Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI), (ii) the Asian Bond Fund (ABF), and (iii) the Asian Bond Markets Initiative (ABMI).
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To achieve this goal, we need to develop a vibrant payment ecosystem that includes identity authentication, validation solutions, an open and neutral participation of many players on a level playing field, and adequate risk mitigation. This applies within and across jurisdictions.
And they concluded that given the economic conditions at that time, during President Cory Aquino’s time, the long-term growth of the Philippine economy was in the neighborhood of 3 percent. Repeat, 3 percent. We could only grow at 3 percent. That was then. Things are significantly different now.
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In subsequent statements, we reiterated that intention, added to some totals, subtracted from others, added purchases of Treasury securities, and ultimately stated our intentions to stop purchasing the securities. Minutes If you are interested in the debate, though, the best place to look for information on the topics discussed and views presented in FOMC meetings is in the minutes.
The Reserve Bank Board meets 9 times a year to monitor and provide oversight on the Bank’s operations and policy decisions, and the Bank’s Governors appear before the Finance and Expenditure Committee 7 times a year.
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In the years that followed the introduction of the euro, the crisis-hit countries at first experienced vibrant economic growth. In fact, in many of today’s problem countries, the booming economy masked the fact that their competitiveness was waning. By contrast, ten years ago, Germany was referred to as the “sick man of Europe”, and there were good reasons for that sobriquet.
Particularly between 2001 and 2005, German growth was weaker than that of just about any other euro-area country.
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The objective of such assistance is to enable the bank concerned to implement corrective measures and to prevent the contagion effect of a run on the bank. The liquidity under the lender-of-last-resort function is provided on a short-term basis only and has to meet certain important preconditions.
These preconditions include that the institution has to be solvent; sufficient collateral is available; the institution has sought other reasonably available sources before seeking assistance from the Reserve Bank; the shareholders of the bank have made a reasonable effort to support it; there is no prima facie evidence that the management is not fit and proper, or that the liquidity problem is due to fraud; and the institution has developed and is committed to the implementation of a viable plan of appropriate remedial action to deal with its liquidity problems.
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In the context of good corporate governance, the issue of greater disclosure on the part of banks and corporates has become important. In the case of complex structured products, it is imperative on the part of the banks / corporates to be transparent and disclose the nature and quantum of risks contracted and the systems put in place to monitor these risks.
While accounting and disclosure issues are engaging our attention, the RBI is also examining other recommendations of the Technical Group for phased implementation. One of the recommendations relates to covered options. As things stand, the corporates are only allowed to purchase options supported by genuine underlying transaction/receivable.
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BIS central bankers’ speeches 7 8 BIS central bankers’ speeches BIS central bankers’ speeches 9 10 BIS central bankers’ speeches BIS central bankers’ speeches 11 12 BIS central bankers’ speeches
At the same time, these supervisors are poised to act quickly, proactively, prudently, and mindfully to maximize the benefits of these technologies while minimizing the attendant risks to the financial system. As the financial system continues to rapidly develop because of technology, you can expect the central banks and financial supervisors to also evolve as necessary.
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Firstly, the data are expensive and data from different providers are not comparable. Secondly, company-level data vary due to different disclosure methods. Thirdly, the extent to which a business model is dependent on carbon-intensive suppliers hardly shows up in company-level reporting. Furthermore, it is difficult to relate the climate data to the financial data of the companies.
The lack of adequate data and models cannot be a reason to do nothing, however. It is each financial company’s own responsibility to develop their risk assessment methods. Collaboration and common understanding are needed to ensure that the analysis is fit and relevant for the purpose.
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We felt it was important to tailor implementation of Basel II to our own individual banking and financial environment, as other authorities will be doing for their own markets, even though it means the reconciliation of the different approaches to implementation across countries will create some complications for banking organizations.
The AIG is working hard to minimize those effects, and we have confidence in their ability to develop reasonable and effective solutions. Nonetheless, we appreciate our responsibility to work with U.S. subsidiaries whose foreign bank parent will, at least initially, adopt F-IRB in their home country.
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We will be happy to take your questions after our brief opening words. As we state in the annual report, the failures of the banking system here have rocked the economy and the public finances, with severe impacts on all members of society.
The second, and even more fundamental change is the establishment of a new authority at the EU level with a mandate for both direct and indirect AML/CFT supervision across all EU Member States. We see this as an important shift which has the potential to bring a more harmonised application of EU AML/CFT requirements and convergence of practices in AML/CFT supervision across the EU.
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Whilst against the background of ever faster technical progress and structural change it was relatively uncontroversial that the traditional “once-in-a-lifetime schooling strategy” has to give way to continuous updating of knowledge and skills (“lifelong learning”), Dietmar Harhoff (2017) warned that so far there is little systematic implementation and institutional development.
But in 1922 Congress restated the purpose of the 1921 act as “an act for the prevention and removal of obstructions and burdens upon interstate commerce in grain, by regulating transactions on grain futures exchanges,” and renamed it the Grain Futures Act of 1922. As an explicitly regulatory measure, it was later upheld by the Court.
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Our model specifications are documented on our website, and our policy reaction function is a form of what economists call a “Taylor Rule,” named for the economist John Taylor. According to the Taylor Rule, the policy interest rate depends on projected inflation and economic growth. Our version is calibrated for the Canadian economy.
We use it each quarter to calculate a path for interest rates that is predicted to keep inflation under control within our economic model and given the numerous assumptions we must make. But this exercise gives us only a starting point for our interest rate deliberations.
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It also calls for journalists who are prepared to really digest this information, not just to “zap” through it in search of an eye-catching headline; they also need to study the sometimes technical background of central banking. A particular group of BIS Review 57/1999 2 journalists awards the prize of European central banker of the year.
Perhaps it would be a good idea to award a prize to the best European financial journalist of the year. Let me make myself clear, I should not want to be involved in the organisation of such a competition, nor even to have a vote in selecting the winner. I have to admit, though, that I would be interested in the outcome.
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For central banks, it is essential to monitor these underlying structural changes and assess the implications for economic growth and inflation dynamics along both cyclical and trend dimensions.
The direct and indirect effects of digitalisation and the carbon transition on the financial system and the drivers of the equilibrium real interest rate also warrant intensive study, especially in view of the possible implications for the monetary transmission mechanism.
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Graph 1 Another example concerns the household saving ratio, which is useful in gauging current and prospective developments in household consumption. Revisions can have a material effect on the profile of the household saving ratio. At times, these have been substantial (in both directions), which can change our understanding of what was going on at any particular point in time.
K C Chakrabarty: Regulation for financial consumer protection – present status and future directions Opening remarks by Dr K C Chakrabarty, Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, at the Conference of Principal Code Compliance Officers – 2013, organized by the Banking Codes and Standards Board of India (BCSBI), College of Agricultural Banking, Pune, 29 April 2013.
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In summary, to help stabilize financial markets and to mitigate the effects of the crisis on the economy, the Federal Reserve established a number of temporary lending programs. Under nearly all of the programs, only short-term credit, with maturities of 90 days or less, was extended, and under all of the programs credit was overcollateralized or otherwise secured as required by law.
The creation of a 20-staff SME Team to serve all parts of Fiji will positively impact SME growth in both credit and numbers. In addition, ANZ’s efforts in working together with local regulators and SME operators is welcome news for sector engagement towards SME development.
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Such recommendations are essentially based on the UK experience – which itself has now been subject to severe criticism in the episode involving the Northern Rock – and completely ignore the huge diversity of the regulatory system in other countries including those prevailing in successful international financial centres such as the US.
The first coin depicts on the obverse, the State House, Réduit, with the inscription “Rs1500” underneath, with the surrounding inscription “FATHER OF THE NATION PLATINUM SERIES * MAURITIUS 2009 * STATE HOUSE – REDUIT *”. The platinum content of the coin is ¼ oz, its weight is 7.8 grams and it has a diameter of 25mm.
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On the other hand, the tasks that can be better handled domestically than at the European level should be re-allocated to the national or regional level, in line with the principle of subsidiarity enshrined in the EU Treaty. Focusing the EU in this way would help making Europe stronger. 4 Conclusion Ladies and gentlemen The ancient agora can teach us several important lessons.
For one thing, it provides early evidence that markets function more efficiently if the state sets an incentive-compatible framework in terms of smart regulation and law enforcement. The liability principle is essential. And institutions matter. That was true for the functioning of ancient marketplaces and that is true for the economic and monetary union. "The whole is greater than the sum of its parts."
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The bank’s Monetary Policy Management Basic mechanism of monetary easing However, after the turn of the year, the global financial markets have continued to be volatile, as I have mentioned earlier.
At the Monetary Policy Meeting held at the end of January 2016, many Policy Board members pointed out that there is an increasing risk that such volatility in global financial markets might delay an improvement in business confidence of Japanese firms and conversion of the deflationary mindset, and might also negatively affect the underlying trend in inflation.
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The average rate of change in gross domestic expenditure changed from a decline of 0.3 per cent per annum from 1991 to 1993, to 4.9 per cent growth over the next three years. 2.
South Africa’s role in Southern Africa The developments over the past few years enabled South Africa to take on a more active part in the economic development of the Southern African region.
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I will then give our assessment of how the insurance sector is doing in Ireland before concluding with some current areas of focus and re ections on longer term trends. Insurance and the economy Insurance enhances the ef ciency and growth of the economy. It allows businesses to transfer risk, which facilitates funding. The sector pools and smoothens aggregate risks.
* * * Thank you for the opportunity to take part in this event to mark the official announcement of the launch of ANZ goMoney or Mobile Money Banking service in Solomon Islands, which will go live on Monday 16th September, 2013.
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The need for labour to migrate will decrease if capital moves towards labour. This has, in fact, happened broadly throughout Europe. Differences between global developments and the EU's internal development can also be found in capital flows. Developments within the EU have followed the 'normal theory', investment has flowed from wealthy economies to economies with a low capital stock.
In contrast, global developments have taken the opposite direction: investment has flowed from developed and from not so developed economies with surplus to the United States. This has been the cause of a major debate. Investment flows to new member states are generally reflected in large current account deficits in these economies.
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As mortgages are renewed at higher rates, more households will feel the restraining effects of monetary policy. Business investment is also expected to soften in the year ahead, dampened by weaker demand for Canadian exports and higher financing costs.
Taking these forces into consideration, we expect Canadian GDP growth to be weak for the rest of this year before beginning to pick up gradually in 2024 and through 2025. On an annual average basis, this suggests growth will slow from 3.4% last year to about 1.4% this year and 1.3% in 2024, and then pick up to 2.5% in 2025.
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The task requires strong partnerships among key stakeholders in the government and the private sector and the support of key international organizations and friendly governments. Today’s workshop is another important step for all of us to work together, share ideas and mobilize support toward promoting Islamic banking and finance in the country.
Specialization lends itself to long chains, but such specialization comes with incentive problems at every step of the chain. These incentive problems need to be recognized and dealt with. Proposals that require intermediaries along the chain to maintain "more skin in the game" are worth considering, but that approach is not a panacea.
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2 See “Competitive adjustment and recovery in the Spanish economy”, Annual Report 2015, Banco de España, pp. 39–63; Vansteenkiste, I., “Did the crisis permanently scar the Portuguese labour market? Evidence from a Markov-switching Beveridge curve analysis”, Working Paper Series, No 2043, ECB, April 2017; and Sestito, P. and Viviano, E., “Hiring incentives and/or firing cost reduction?
Evaluating the impact of the 2015 policies on the Italian labour market”, Questioni di economia e finanza (Occasional Papers), No 325, Banca d’Italia, March 2016. 3 For instance, Latvia’s total stock market capitalisation was 4% of GDP in 2013, which was the lowest rate among the EU Member States. See “Capital Markets Union factsheet”, European Commission, 30 September 2015, p. 2.
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I should like to underline – once again – that these two responsibilities are clearly distinct and should not be mixed. Since we last met in October, tensions continued to be observed and during the last period banks expressed concerns about their liquidity needs over the year-end.
All things considered, currently there are no symptoms of a weakened demand for domestic money. Deposits and credit do not seem to have been impacted by the international change of mood, and continue on their upward trend. Demand for dollar bills diligently rose and then fell to preexisting levels.
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While one of the main motivations for this change was that the unemployment rate might soon cross the 6-1/2 percent threshold, the new formulation is also well suited to help the FOMC explain policy adjustments that may arise in response to changes in the outlook.
The new measure is based on security-level information from the quarterly Securities Holdings Statistics. These data are only available from the last quarter of 2009 but allow for a more granular analysis that also takes into account holdings by other less price-sensitive investors, such as insurance companies and pension funds. Total outstanding debt relates to general government debt and not to the central government.
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I often joke that, for a sense of shared purposes to be built-up in the euro area and to fully remove uncertainty in the eyes of interested external partners and observers, perhaps it would have been better to have a “single army” before adopting a “single currency”….
Jokes apart, and aware that issues such as this have been very much debated over the last sixty years or so, I believe that those taken in the last few years on monetary policy and banking supervision are critical steps ahead towards a stronger union.
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2 As I conclude this morning, it is my sincere hope that you will all leave here with a greater understanding of electronic payments, the benefits that it provides, as well as the specific role of the various stakeholders in the payments industry. Once again, it is my pleasure to welcome you to this workshop, and I look forward to the fruitful deliberations.
Thanks to this research we understand better how our economy works, and how the economy has evolved over time. Understanding the economy is the key to the formulation of good economic policy, and for public involvement in the execution of the economic strategy.
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Even where the data can be perfectly measured there is often discrepancy between the economic concept that we would want to measure and the real phenomenon that the statistics attempts to measure. For example Gross Domestic Product seeks to measure the total economic activity, the value added that takes place in the economy over time. It is almost impossible to measure this directly.
Instead much of the data is estimated from surveys. This gives rise to measurement issues relating to coverage, sampling and non-response, but not such as to undermine their integrity. It is therefore normal to have revisions as new information that improves the accuracy of the data is received.
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Esteemed ladies and gentlemen, dear colleagues, The National Bank of Serbia is the mirror of the state before the people and the reflection of the people before the world, just as the Association of Serbian Banks is the mirror of banks before citizens and businesses.
Today, when we are reminding ourselves of what has been done, let us not be lulled with what we have achieved. Just like all sectors, the banking sector must share the destiny of businesses and citizens, yesterday, today and tomorrow, because it is only in such way that we can last. “Study the past if you would define the future”, said Confucius.
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1/3 BIS central bankers' speeches On the monetary front, for instance, the BSP started issuing its own debt securities in September last year. This increases BSP’s set of tools to manage liquidity in the economy, consistent with our price stability mandate.
With the BSP at the forefront of efforts to digitize the Philippine economy, we launched the Digital Payments Transformation Roadmap last year which is expected to help propel boost economic growth. We also recently issued frameworks for enhanced risk management, and the creation of digital banks—all of which help further strengthen and enhance the financial system.
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However, a slower movement in relative prices makes this process more costly. The rotation of internal demand and the improvement in export performance is slowed down. And economic agents, foreseeing a prolonged period of relative price adjustment, form expectations of persistently low inflation.
This, in turn, pushes up the real interest rate faced by local households and firms and thus weighs down on the domestic economy. For this reason, the key area of policy intervention during the crisis has been in the realm of structural policies aimed at enhancing competition and reducing economic distortions in goods and labour markets.
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At the same time, we need to ensure proper development of the housing 4 BIS central bankers’ speeches sector; otherwise we may be seeing increasing number of slums and unauthorised settlements.
Financial constraints Another important constraint that has been existent all along for the housing sector is finance for the developers as well as finance for the households, particularly for the low cost/affordable housing category.
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Triggered by that event, the global economy deteriorated rapidly and simultaneously and economic activity in Japan deteriorated substantially, but mainly as a result of various policy measures by the governments and central banks around the world and progress in inventory adjustments, the economies both at home and abroad have started to pick up.
However, the outlook remains uncertain, and many challenges remain for the global economy to shift to a sustainable growth path. Today, before exchanging views with you, I will first explain the economic developments and outlook at home and abroad as well as the thinking on the Bank of Japan’s conduct of policy. I.
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One point on which there has so far been less reflection concerns the incentives for individual market participants, not only in trying to predict the behaviours of others but in trying to influence them.
Ultimately it is a well functioning and efficient financial market which can deal holistically with provision of financial services to the economy and population. Building financial inclusive system is, however, an integral and core pillar of financial sector reforms.
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Aside from CCAR, the FSB compiles an annual list of global systemically important banks (G-SIBs), which are subject to stricter capital requirements in the form of a capital surcharge.
When we have a transaction account, we enjoy all the benefits afforded by digital payments and innovations. When we have a transaction account, we are able to meaningfully participate in the gains of an increasingly digital economy. Hindi tayo napag-iiwanan.
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Also, the leading central banks continue to pursue diverging monetary policies due to different economic cycle phases of their economies, while financial conditions remain favourable. Thus, the international environment is still marked with uncertainty as to the speed of Fed’s monetary policy normalisation.
Another question concerns the duration of monetary accommodation of the European Central Bank due to faster than expected growth in the euro area. Strengthening of domestic fundamentals – as a response to external challenges It is indisputable that external challenges have existed and will exist.
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That's why we have to view economic crime as every bit as serious as certain crimes of violence. It is true that fraud is less physically dangerous than an armed robbery. But its social damage is every bit as severe. Both types of crime undermine the trust that people have in their society.
That's why a computer hacker who steals from a company is just as much a criminal as a bank robber who steals from a bank branch. And an illegal inside trader that has hijacked a million dollars from the pockets of investors is no less a criminal than the thief who commits an armed robbery.
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To raise productivity in services we must do all of the following: • Cultivate the individual customer; • Aim to exceed expectations, in every transaction; • Never leave the customer without the product or service they need, or without assistance towards obtaining what they need; • Always give excellent value for money; you may then charge what price you must in order to give excellent service, and the discerning customer will gladly pay.
• Deal patiently, courteously and fully with difficult customers and problematic circumstances. Even if the customer cannot be satisfied, they must nevertheless walk away having had a pleasant experience. These might not be what we think of when we think productivity, but they are the real sources of productivity, because they produce improved real value for the same input of labour and materials.
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Since public debt instruments play a key role in domestic financial markets and are an essential means of saving for the population, restructuring has very large wealth effects, with direct repercussions on the economy and also on society and on the democratic system.
Klaas Knot: The eurozone crisis – causes and solutions Speech by Mr Klaas Knot, President of the Netherlands Bank, to the Asia Society, Hong Kong, 15 October 2012. * * * Thank you for this opportunity to exchange views with you on this topical issue. I’ve accepted this invitation with pleasure.
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Similarly, the role of large, complex financial institutions in the international financial system calls for ongoing cooperation among the major central banks in underpinning the liquidity of international markets. Finally, let me emphasise that the locational decisions of financial firms within the euro area should not be driven by regulatory considerations.
Rather, a common regulatory system and a genuine single EU-wide market in financial services should allow firms to concentrate on the relative merits of alternative locations in relation to the standard factors identified in the economic geography literature. In the coming years, the analysis of these locational decisions promises to be a major research field for economists and financial geographers.
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Ladies and gentlemen As far as free trade and banking regulation are concerned, it is still unclear at the moment what exactly the future holds in store for international cooperation. The status quo is under the spotlight in other policy areas, too – the topic of international security springs to mind.
We are way behind other developing countries in these two aspects. One of the most gratifying aspects of our reforms in the financial sector during the last five years has been broadening access to financing by the middle and lower income groups.
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It was today, on the 11th of May, of 1998 that the first euro coins were minted. This, in some way, marked the beginning of the euro as “real” money that would circulate among by now 330 million European citizens. And no doubt, the single currency is and will in the future remain a guarantee of stability and prosperity in Europe.
But before I turn to the future of the international monetary system, let me look back in history and briefly sketch the evolution – and trace out some constant elements – of the international monetary system since the gold standard.
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Can insolvency proceedings be simplified? Are any organisational adjustments necessary? Thorough preparations can help banks to distinguish “good” risks from “bad” ones and continue to lend to firms with a sustainable business model. Phase 3: Facilitating structural change, limiting vulnerabilities Our simulations predict that insolvencies and loss allowances will rise in the future.
In the corporate sector as a whole, insolvencies could increase to more than 6,000 per quarter in the first few months of 2021. That would be fewer than during the global financial crisis, at which time roughly 8,000 enterprises filed for insolvency each quarter.
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Fortunately we are in a better position than most developing countries to withstand the recession and to accommodate a moderate level of deficit financing.
After negotiations that took nearly two years, the 12 banks agreed on a common denominator: children are welcome to open accounts with them with a minimum deposit of only 100 pesos or less than $ And to further help make saving a habit, bank representatives also go directly to schools to service children’s deposits.
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We will carefully examine various risk factors, in addition to developments in economic activity and prices as well as financial conditions, and weigh the benefits and costs of the policy effects. In this way, the Bank will continue to conduct its policy in an appropriate manner. Thank you very much for your attention.
11 Overcoming Deflation: Japan's Experience and Challenges Ahead Speech at the 2019 Michel Camdessus Central Banking Lecture, International Monetary Fund July 22, 2019 Haruhiko Kuroda Governor of the Bank of Japan Introduction I. Chronic Deflation, and Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE) II. Lessons Learned from Japan's Experience and Challenges Ahead Conclusion Chart 1 I.
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To address “exclusion” there is need to nurture policy inclusiveness, ensuring robust campaign of financial inclusion to broaden access to finance, while launching supportive development strategies and programs that enhance the viability and sustainability of the financial services provided to the vulnerable groups. Size and dimension of exclusion 4.
These forces--the destruction wrought by the hurricane and the reconstruction efforts--will be two of the key factors shaping economic activity in coming months. A frustrating aspect of the situation is that even now, some six weeks after the first of the hurricanes made landfall, the incoming data are only beginning to shed some light on the economic ramifications of the storms.
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For instance, shrinking labour input will put upward pressure on wages. Higher wages might provide greater incentives for workers to acquire more education and training. Scarcity of labour and lower costs of capital might offer greater incentives for firms to invest and increase productivity. But none of these challenges will be resolved magically by themselves and something will definitely have to give.
Implications for monetary policy It is not the Bank of Canada’s role to determine the extent of adjustments needed from each of us – government or private sector, households or businesses, current or future generations. This depends on our values and goals as a society and this is something that Canadians will have to decide on collectively. So what is the Bank’s role here?
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Although the banking industry may not always be subject to all of this constant movement, adaptability is definitely becoming more important and relies on a flexible IT infrastructure, for example, to support it. Business models can also be more open and flexible in structure; just think of the “digital ecosystem” strategies banks are now employing.
The attendance this afternoon well reflects the extent of our concern here in Mauritius. What is this FATCA? A quick recap FATCA was enacted on 18 March 2010 as part of the Hiring Incentives to Restore Employment Act.
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Second, the different contingencies in crisis conditions and the policy measures associated with them are unfamiliar to the public. This makes understanding our reaction function more 4 BIS central bankers’ speeches complex.
Hence, the probability distribution of outcomes tends to widen, the number of economic and financial variables that observers consider relevant for monetary policy and its transmission increases, while the yield curve becomes less informative as a summary indicator. To accurately steer expectations across a wider array of measures, more active communication on our reaction function is needed.
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These simple yet powerful measures were meant to prevent the recurrence of severe financial crises. Was this arrangement optimal? Maybe it was fit for the times; but, decades later, the intellectually unavoidable trade-off between stability-oriented supervisory constraints and efficiency-oriented market freedom resurfaced in the policy debate.
For example, to the extent they hold SSAs today, they should still hold them in the future. 4 For more details on the APRA media release, see APRA clarifies implementation of global liquidity standards in Australia, 28 February 2011.
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In addition, many firms have gone bankrupt and others will, especially some of the riskier ventures in the technology sector. But these patterns seem to have historical precedent in the corrections of both equity values and investment that follow, after a lag, the transition to a period of higher productivity growth. Some might expect that new-economy developments would make recessions less likely.
That is not an entirely unreasonable presumption. The experience among faster-growing European economies in the earlier postwar period was that these economies tended to have fewer quarters of declining output – the sine qua non of a recession as defined in the United States – than was the case in the slower-growing United States.
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The same is true for securities settlement systems. BIS Review 14/2003 3 With the transposition of the Settlement Finality Directive into Luxembourg law in January 2001, the legislator has endowed the banking supervisory authority with the surveillance of the systems, and on an exceptional basis the BCL, under the condition that the BCL is a participant in those systems.
In particular, the lower are the net financing needs of the private sector at the bottom of the recession, the more likely it is that the economy can recover without bank credit.
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Chart 2 Introduction Potential Growth Rate Recent Developments 6 y/y % chg.
Developments in the 60s-80s 12 average y/y % chg. Labor 5 Number of employed persons Hours worked 4 3 10 Capital stock 8 Total factor productivity Real GDP growth rate Capital stock Total factor productivity Potential growth rate 2 6 1 4 0 2 -1 -2 FY 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 Notes: 1.
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Technological innovation and the Bank of Japan A. Changes brought about by technological innovation Central bank functions, which we have just looked at, have differed from country to country and from time to time, but are now well established in the major countries. However, the specifics of central banking operations enabling central banks to fulfill their role have been changing continually.
C. Advantages of inflation targeting policy In order to achieve stable and moderate inflation, what kind of policy will be desirable? One answer is a policy framework called inflation targeting. The Bank has been pursuing monetary easing under the price stability target of 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the CPI.
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CAR was kept at a high level of 15.6%; non-performing loan ratio was 0.61% which purported a continued good asset quality. Deposits amounted to MOP186.6 billion, loan-deposit ratio was 60.8%. At the moment, there is a change for the better in market operating environment which reflects a more optimistic market perspective.
The role of retail banking for economic development and monetary policy (i) Retail banking plays a crucial role in fostering economic activity Retail banking is the backbone of banking activities. Retail sector banks, in particular, have the expertise to provide credit to small and medium-sized enterprises (or SMEs) and to evaluate the associated risks.
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Three hours of work per day would suffice to satisfy the ‘old Adam in most of us’, he said, that is, mankind’s innate urge to produce with ‘the sweat of his brow’. We have twelve years left to reach this goal.
7 In the words of Mokyr et al., 8 ‘if someone as brilliant as David Ricardo could be so terribly wrong in how machinery would reduce the overall demand for labour, modern economists should be cautious in making pronouncements about the end of work.’ Our experience so far is that, in the long run, technological change improves living standards by boosting productivity and increasing output and consumption, without destroying jobs in the aggregate.
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4 Asian countries that have raised their benchmark interest rates include Malaysia and India in March, Taiwan in June, and South Korea and Thailand in July. In addition to the Asian economies, Australia and Brazil have been raising their policy interest rates.
This teaches us the important lesson that reforms pay off. Furthermore, robust employment during the crisis was the dividend of greater flexibility in German wage agreements and was also supported by temporary government measures such as the shorttime working, which proved to be an attractive option.
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For now, I would like to delve deeper into the first point – the limits of regulation. 4 The limits of regulation There is one thing that we can all agree on: we need an operational framework and ground rules for business. An operational framework creates trust and thereby attracts investors and customers.
For this reason, the banks themselves also have an interest in a functional operational framework. At this point, I would like to explain in greater detail two phenomena that impose limits on regulation: first, the challenges of globalisation and, second, the concept of what is known as homo oeconomicus.
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Private domestic demand in the United States has picked up and will be reinforced by recently announced monetary and fiscal stimulus. Growth in Europe has also been slightly stronger than anticipated, although ongoing challenges associated with sovereign and bank balance sheets will limit the pace of the European recovery.
Continued strong growth in emerging markets is supporting commodity prices, which have increased significantly since last autumn (Chart 1 and Chart 2). With some emerging-market economies overheating, authorities there have begun implementing more restrictive policies with the goal of containing rising inflationary pressures.
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Of the six LABs originally licensed, two have since ceased to exit as the licences granted to one of them was cancelled in January 2002 on account of grave irregularities observed in their operations while another one, whose financial position was unsatisfactory, was amalgamated in August 2004 with the Bank of Baroda under section 45 of the Banking Regulation Act, 1949.
Thus, there are only four LABs functioning at present, all of which are non-scheduled banks. The LABs were subject to the provisions of the B. R. Act, RBI Act and prudential norms on income recognition and asset classification, etc., since their inception. 36.
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Director of Ceremonies, let me indicate, at the outset, that today’s event, is of major signi cance in a myriad of ways.
First and foremost, I can imagine that it responds to a major aspiration of the people of the North West region of Botswana, the Okavango Sub-District in particular, which has been and continues to be comparatively underbanked, even if acknowledging that Absa Bank has three branches and eight ATMs in the North West District; second, the opportunity to project the potential fi fi fi fi fi economic bene ts emanating from broadening of access to nancial services in this region and, third and more broadly, what Absa has done is aligned to public policy objectives of growing a more inclusive nancial sector.
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It is likely that further implications, as yet unknown, will become evident as global warming progresses. In economic terms, such events have effects on both aggregate supply and demand. As a central bank, we can react to events as they occur. But we cannot build them into our economic forecasts or adjust our monetary policy in advance because each is unique and unpredictable.
In the short run, they may be viewed as a downside risk to economic activity in Canada, which we would take into account in our risk management framework for monetary policy. Over a longer period, that downside turns from risk into near-certainty—that is, a lower growth track for the Canadian economy than we would otherwise achieve.
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As policymakers of the National Government see it, our economy will grow by 7–8 percent in 2015 while the inflation target is at 2 to 4 percent.2 Other institutions and analysts project lower numbers for growth. But there is one thing they have in common – the view that the Philippines will continue to be comparatively buoyant.
However, there are risks that cloud the future. The continuing uncertainty in the global financial markets is a concern as geopolitical tensions go on and economic performance among major economies remains divergent. 1 June 2014 Data for Financial Inclusion. 2 DBCC Macroeconomic Assumptions (2013–2017), as of 20 June 2014.
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Indeed, if inflation expectations were to begin to ratchet down toward the actual inflation rates that we have experienced recently, inflation could move appreciably lower. Having done this quick tour of the recent economic news, I would now like to address a few broader macroeconomic questions. First, why do I expect a gradual strengthening of economic activity?
The challenge in the coming months will be to create greater political awareness of the enormous importance of this highly technical area for Europe’s economy. At the same time, I want to point out that a capital markets union cannot be our only area of action. Financial policy, fiscal policy and economic policy are all equally important to keep the recovery on track.
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Ireland (6.6), Portugal (5.7) and Italy (3.1) have also undertaken substantial adjustment efforts, which are well above the euro area average of 2.2 percentage points. Spain is close to the average. However, further efforts are needed in most countries to bring public debt ratios to a more sustainable level, also in view of the long-term challenges, including ageing.
The markets were wrong both before and after the crisis, and continue to make mistakes, even with regard to sovereign risk. Moreover, they often behave inefficiently and facilitate collusion, especially when it is possible to buy derivatives that allow you to “bet” on a country’s bankruptcy, even without having invested in it.
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The high levels of innovation and fluidity of our economy have long been thought to be among the principal reasons for our high and rising living standards. 4 BIS central bankers’ speeches The slowdown in essentially all of these processes is seen in declining rates of creation and destruction of both firms and jobs.
Start-ups: Start-ups are a key driver of productivity growth.
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Journal of development economics. P253-268. 6 Ajayi, R, 1991, On the Simultaneous Interactions of External Debt, Exchange Rates, and Other Macroeconomic Variables: the Case of Nigeria, available at https://msuweb.montclair.edu/~lebelp/CERAFRM026Ajayi1991.pdf. Page 4 of 11 Second, does the level of indebtedness matter for economic growth? Reinhart and Rogoff7 argue that growth rates decline significantly when public debt ratios exceed 90% of GDP.
And, on top of this, he had no past. He had no future; he had no wife; he had no children; he had nothing, except a small black hulled canoe, and some wire fishpots and mangrove-stained lines he used to catch fish with.
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But this alone does not explain why there is so much less cross-border trade in services than in goods. [9] There are also home-grown barriers to trade.
Although these are familiar stories, they illustrate the need for change. One instance is the near-failure of Bear Stearns. Bear Stearns wasn’t one of the largest investment banks in the United States, but it was one of the most leveraged, with large broker-dealer and proprietary operations.
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The implications are that if we get our citizens into the mode of depending on the government for everything this will not get them into the creative spirit of creating wealth and jobs.
We must always remember that a nation is the aggregation of all its individual citizens and that if the nation is experiencing difficulty all of its citizens are also suffering in one way or the other.
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Since tomorrow is our next pre-set date for announcing changes in the Bank Rate, I hope you can appreciate that I cannot comment on the current economic situation. We will be doing that in tomorrow's press release.
It will allow depository institutions and their service providers to offer value-added services to their customers, ultimately enhancing competition in the market for payment services. Completing and implementing FedNow is a high priority, and we expect it to be available by mid-2023.
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BIS Review 18/2003 1 Given the needs of countries with a far different banking and regulatory structure than ours, Basel II contains three alternative approaches, which are described in the Vice Chairman's testimony.
Supervisors in this country have for some time contemplated that only the most risk-sensitive approaches, the Advanced Internal Ratings Based (A-IRB) option for credit risk and the Advanced Measurement approach (AMA) for operational risk, would be applied in the United States. These advanced approaches would be required for only our largest and most complex, internationally active banking organizations--about ten U. S. banks.
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Today, we know that central banking and risk management are very much interconnected. First, central banks have played a key role worldwide – through their operations in financial markets – in alleviating the implications of the dramatic intensification of banks’ liquidity risk since the summer of 2007.
It can lull us into a wrong sense of complacency. This is the answer to the question I posed earlier: We work on systemic risks, report our analysis-thank God for our staff and for our colleagues-and engage the public because we avoid the expected shocks and better manage when the unexpected ones happen. This is a point of resilience.
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Our past experience in applying the Pact, especially after weakening of its core provisions in 2005, have amply demonstrated that a reform of these procedures has to be a sine qua non of a determined response to the current crisis.
In this context, the Governing Council of the ECB regrets that the European Council did not decide to espouse the European Parliament’s views on this issue at the end of last week. This is an issue of key importance for the ECB. We consider that an essential progress in decision-making procedures in the Council is to make them more automatic.
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The debt management strategy has been exploring the idea of issuing sovereign bonds in international capital markets but as risks associated outweigh the benefits and thus, no such issuance has been contemplated. Some EMDEs which issued such bonds faced problems during the recent crisis period.
Finally, I would like to inform you that the Governing Council has decided that, as from today, it will – as a rule – assess the stance of the ECB's monetary policy only at its first meeting of the month. Accordingly, interest rate decisions will normally be taken during that meeting.
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The need to channel more credit to the traded goods sectors also underlines the urgency of reducing real lending rates in Uganda.
Industries which sell their products and services on competitive global markets cannot normally expect to earn very high rates of return to capital; this inevitably limits their capacity to borrow at real lending rates in the region of 20 percent, as is currently the case in Uganda.
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GDP has fallen by 9 per cent since 2007, industrial output by 25 per cent. There are fewer job opportunities: the number of persons in employment has fallen by 1 million, the unemployment rate is nearly 13 per cent, and more than 41 per cent among young people.
The free-market paradigm came under more-vigorous attack after the collapse of the world's major economies in the 1930s. As the global depression deepened, the seeming failure of competitive markets to restore full employment perplexed economists until John Maynard Keynes offered an explanation that was to influence policy practitioners for generations to come.
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