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44. Few comments. |
It seems fairly straightforward to me but I supposed I've been following the science for a year or so. As you say it depends on audience and what you can assume about them. |
One thing that jumped out is that you switch between energy/heat/temperature alot. You could think about just talking about one of them. I think the clearest is talking about energy building up in the system. I don't know whether by sticking to one term it makes the ideas flow better. With one line to at the start or end to say that energy build up = rising temperatures. |
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45. RE#36 garythompson, #37 Riccardo |
Two things: |
From eyeballing the adapted "CO2 science" graph (with my ruler on the monitor I get 0.27 deg warmer in the MWP than today based on matching the red peak to the blue peak so I don't know how they got that. |
But when I quickly read over the journal paper as far as I can tell it was incorrect method anyway to interpret figure 2b or at least to compare it to modern times as they author's state a few things: |
...reconstruction suggests that at least during the Medieval Warm Period, and possibly the preceding 1,000 years, Indonesian SSTs were |
similar to modern SSTs....Contrary to the Indonesia SST reconstruction, however, the Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction does not estimate temperatures as warm as modern at any time during the past two millennia. |
The author's then continues to say: We note that the high-amplitude variations resulting fromthese hypothesized changes in G. ruber seasonality also preclude accurate estimates of the rates of SST change in the past and a meaningful comparison to the rate of SST increase during the past |
Reading this, makes me instantly skeptical of the claim at "CO2 Science" that the Medieval Warm Period was warmer than the Current Warm Period. I infer that they intentional (not just that they can't read graphs) with their lack of transparency over how they interpret the science. |
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46. CO2 science has something of history in misrepresentation of science papers by selective quoting. I think you can get a list of other examples by putting "CO2science misrepresent" into google and follow links sounding like annoyed authors. |
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47. Everything in the "dumbed down" talk sounds good and true, but it seems to miss the point. The skeptics, for example, could immediately make it all SOUND meaningless by pointint out that in the past (was it Late Triassic? I forget), we had MUCH higher CO2 levels, but rather small climate change due to it. |
This would APPEAR to overrule the presentation's observations that 1) climate changes took place in the past due to forcings and 2) CO2 is a forcing. |
What is the right approach to this? My understanding (I would certainly welcome Cook's corrections) is that the degree to which the climate is sensitive to forcings has itself also been highly variable. Specifically, that with the Late Triassic configuration of continents and corresponding ocean currents, even a rather large CO2 forcing had a surprisingly small effect; but with modern ocean currents, it is well-expected to have a MUCH larger effect. |
So if that understanding is correct, then it certainly should be included in the presentation for engineers. |
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Response: Funnily enough, this was one of the questions I was asked at the presentation - "are you saying climate sensitivity was lower in the past?" |
On the contrary, climate sensitivity has been surprisingly consistent in the past, even going back millions of years. So if someone asked about CO2 being much higher in the past (noone did bring that up at the talk), I would say that the sun has been getting steadily brighter over Earth's history. Millions of years ago when CO2 was much higher, solar output was lower. The combined effect of sun and CO2 show good correlation with climate. For more details, see CO2 was higher in the past. |
In fact, it's because the sun was cooler in the past that CO2 was so much higher. CO2 acts as a natural thermostat for our climate, regulated by rock weather which is the process of removing CO2 from the atmosphere by chemical reactions. When it's cooler, rock weathering activity slows so there's less removal of CO2 from the air. This means CO2 builds up, warms up the planet. Then as it gets warmer, rock weathering activity increases which removes CO2 out of the atmosphere. |
This process is a natural way of keeping our climate within a certain temperature range. It means that if the sun was cooler, temperatures get cooler so rock weathering slows down, increasing CO2 levels. This is a fascinating process but of course, I didn't go into that much detail at the talk - I just mentioned that climate sensitivity has been consistent in the past. |
48. Oh, and about understanding thermodynamics: I had a VERY long argument in Topix with somebody who clearly had an engineering background, yet believed that EVERY climate scientist claiming AGW was relying on violations of the First Law of Thermodynamics (occasionally he claimed 2nd too) in their understanding of the energy balance. He even claimed to find this flaw in Trenberth's famous diagram. |
But when I turned to the diagram (and Trenberth's original paper, whose title I forget), what I saw was something very different: I could not find evidence of any such violation (of course), but I DID find evidence of some very disappointing mistakes in presentation that made it difficult to verify that the First Law is satisfied by his numbers. |
So what is the implication of all this for this article? I would say two things 1) do NOT assume a deep understanding of Thermodynamics, not even from engineers 2) make sure that quantities, variables, scales etc. are CLEARLY marked in the diagrams, and that simple questions like which way how much heat/energy flux flows are easily visible on the diagram. Diagrams like the one in post#27 in this thread are damn near useless. |
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49. John, this mechanical engineer had no problem understanding either your previous explanation, or the new simplified one. |
As you've mentioned, though, perhaps the issue is that you got bogged down in the details. A different order of presentation may be required, where you present a simplified overview, then explore a few areas in more depth, perhaps having some of those detailed explanations in reserve to answer questions. |
Also, from personal experience - if you were presenting to a bunch of students, then the 'blank looks' & shortage of questions aren't that uncommon while people are digesting the information just presented. |
Explaining AGW in terms of radiative heat transfer, though, is something any fourth-year engineering students should understand (heat transfer was 3rd year subject when I studied at UQ, but that was nearly 20 years ago...) |
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50. Petroleum reservoir engineers construct numerical models to forecast the production from an oil or gas field. They calibrate their models against recorded production rates in a process they refer to as a "history match". See, for example, this abstract which would, I guess, look familiar in many methodological aspects to climate modellers. So, if you were presenting to a bunch of petroleum engineers, you wouldn't have much problem explaining why palaeoclimate was important in calibrating forecast models. |
I think a major problem with people's misinterpreting the significance of palaeoclimate is the naturalistic fallacy: what's natural is good for us, or the Nietzschean corollary (recently popularized by the Koch brothers in the Smithsonian exhibit)that what doesn't kill us makes us stronger. What the general public doesn't usually understand is the extremely rapid rate of current changes compared to past changes, as well as the fact that the most extreme palaeoclimates would not permit the survival of our current civilization. |
There's also the logical fallacy that bverheggen noted (about past and present causes) that seems so elementary (to me) I'm amazed that people keep making it. Nevertheless, I've lost count of the number of times that I've used the forest fires/arson metaphor. |
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Troops Won't Receive Paycheck if Government Shuts Down |
VIDEO of President Obama talking about the government |
WATCH President Obama Sounds Off on Gov. Shutdown |
Soldiers deployed in Iraq and Afghanistan will not receive paychecks next week if the government fails to come together on a resolution to keep the government funded and avert a shutdown before funding dries up on midnight Friday, senior government officials said today. |
Military personnel will be paid eventually but not until Congress appropriates money to the Department of Defense. |
Marine Michael Goodwin, who serves in Camp Pendleton, Calif. and is about to be deployed overseas, said the shutdown could put his rent payment in jeopardy. |
"The main priority is gas so I could get back and forth to work," said Goodwin, who commutes about an hour to work every day. "And if I don't have enough for gas, then there wont be enough for food," "or rent, or car insurance." |
"We won't have a place to live if we don't get paid," said his wife, Denise. |
Like Goodwin, many military personnel and their spouses survive paycheck to paycheck. Many who are in the field and who are not married have set up automatic payments, and if they don't get word of the shutdown in time, their payments and credit could be impacted. |
"Everybody's being caught flat-footed," said Kathy Moakler, a mother of two active-duty service members and government relations director at the National Military Family Association. "I am personally incensed that [at] a time when our families are undergoing stress as it is, that Congress would force them to undergo more stress." |
Republicans plan to introduce a bill Thursday that would fund the Department of Defense until September and keep the government running for another week, while cutting $12 billion in discretionary spending. But President Obama has said he won't support such an extension without a long-term plan and it's unlikely to pass in the Senate. |
Even if a deal is reached, "it's going to take two or three days to actually put it all together," House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, said today. "We believe it's important to move this troop funding bill that would keep the government funded for another week." |
Civilian employees at the Pentagon could take a big hit if the government closes its doors. Since "non-essential" staff is furloughed during a government shutdown, Congress must decide once it reaches a resolution whether to give back pay to dismissed employees. |
"We expect a significant number of civilian DOD employees will unfortunately be furloughed if the government shuts down," a senior administration official said today. |
Louis Bornman, a DOD employee who has spent 12 years of active duty in the Army, said getting furloughed could jeopardize his entire retirement savings. He added that it will also adversely impact the federal government and taxpayers. |
"It is very demoralizing to think you're going to be laid off and not paid," said Bornman, based in Ft. Leavenworth, Kan. "People will have to work overtime in the near future, which ultimately will cost the government more money. ... It's very disconcerting that you're looked upon as disposable when you're providing that backup service that the nation depends upon." |
Defense contractors also will be impacted. During the last shutdown, contractors did not receive back pay, which some Democrats said could put small companies out of business. |
"It is going to be very severe," said Rep. Jim Moran, D-Va. "Large contractors are going to be OK. They have a sufficient cash reserve. Small contractors are not. ... They are hanging on by their fingernails." |
At least 800,000 federal employees are expected to be furloughed, the same as the 1995 shutdown. But unlike then, it's unclear whether they would receive back pay for the lost time. |
"I have a very strong conclusion after talking with some of these guys there will be no reimbursement," Moran said today. If the shutdown is prolonged, "it is going to have a very severe impact upon federal employees' ability to make their mortgage payments, car payments, et cetera. ... This is very, very serious." |
President Obama today chided Republicans for not coming together on a deal, saying that he and Democrats agreed to the spending cuts the GOP originally asked for. |
"We've agreed to a compromise but somehow we don't have a deal, because some folks are trying to inject politics in what should be a simple debate about how to pay our bills," the president said. "They're stuffing all kinds of issues in there: abortion and the environment, health care. You know, there's time to have those discussions but that time is not now." |
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