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LA051190-0185

SOUTHLAND; LIZ TAYLOR SUFFERS RELAPSE, WILL BE IN HOSPITAL SIX MORE WEEKS

Pneumonia-stricken actress Elizabeth Taylor has suffered complications in her fifth week of hospitalization, including new infections, and doctors now say she will be hospitalized six more weeks. The recovery of Miss Taylor, near death two weeks ago with a viral pneumonia, has been complicated by bacterial pneumonia and a yeast infection, her doctors said today. "Miss Taylor has a resolving, newly acquired bacterial pneumonia secondary to her hospital stay at St. John's Hospital and Health Center," the doctors said in Santa Monica through Taylor's publicist, Chen Sam. "It is improving significantly," the physicians said. "She has also developed a fungemia of Candida albicans (infection in the blood), more commonly referred to as yeast and will be hospitalized for approximately six more weeks for intravenous therapy," the doctors added without elaboration. Bacterial pneumonia is generally considered less serious than the viral pneumonia Taylor initially contracted because antibiotics are effective against bacteria but not viruses.

actress elizabeth taylor;hospitalization;st. john's hospital;viral pneumonia;intravenous therapy;yeast infection;miss taylor;bacterial pneumonia

LA051590-0065

WORST FIRE SEASON IN DECADES SEEN

Prolonged drought, bark beetles and a rare fungus are drying out and killing brush and trees that surround many Southern California neighborhoods, creating the potential for one of the worst wildfire seasons in decades, fire officials warned Monday. A map released Monday by the Los Angeles County Fire Department showed that some of the most vulnerable fire zones can be found this summer in chaparral-covered foothill and mountain-canyon slopes beside densely developed residential districts of Los Angeles and its suburbs. The map was released as the state Department of Forestry officially opened the region's 1990 fire season, which means its firefighting crews have been placed on higher alert and various fire prevention regulations are now in effect. While the fire-season announcement came only two to three weeks earlier than usual in the vulnerable foothills, it was a full two months ahead of schedule in the heavily wooded mountain terrain of Southern California's national forests. "The last really good rainfall was back in '82-83, so our brush really hasn't recuperated in seven years," said Gordon Rowley, a fire management specialist with the U.S. Forest Service. "Unless we get a hurricane or something -- and that's not very likely -- we're going to have a very bad year." Rowley said other Western states also are experiencing drought, "which means they won't be able to send us the firefighting forces they normally can deploy out here. . . . It doesn't look good." Los Angeles, which has an annual average of 14.93 inches of rainfall, has received 6.18 inches so far this season, promising to make this the driest season in 30 years. The rainfall season, which runs from July 1 to June 30, is almost over for 1989-90, and Southern California seldom gets much measurable rain in late May and the month of June. In 1982-83, 31.25 inches of rain fell on the city, more than twice the seasonal average. But since then, the annual rainfall here has averaged only 11.57 inches. Rowley said the long drought has weakened the vegetation in Southern California, making it more vulnerable to disease and infestation by pests. He said that with normal rainfall, pine trees are vigorous enough to fight off bark beetles, which bore into trunks and limbs to lay their eggs. He said healthy trees repel the insects with a flow of pitch that suffocates them and forces them out of the bark. But during the current dry spell, the trees haven't been able to produce enough sap to rid themselves of the beetles. Rowley said the insects have proliferated, killing vast stands of pines and leaving tinder-dry fuel for fires. The problem is acute in the Cleveland and San Bernardino national forests. In foothill districts closer to Los Angeles, a fungus that preys upon drought-weakened brush has killed as much as 60% of the chaparral in some portions of the Santa Monica and San Gabriel mountains. The fungus, first observed about eight years ago, attacks broad-leafed plants such as mountain lilac, manzanita and sumac, some of the more fire-resistant species of brush. Officials said large patches of this dead and dying brush now mottle the hillsides, ready to burst into flame at the slightest spark. And because of the drought, even the live brush is more incendiary than usual, officials said. Capt. Scott Franklin, a vegetation management officer with the county Fire Department, said the dead trees and dry brush combine to form a fuel source so volatile that "any ignition now could become a major fire." Fire officials generally have responded to the threat with increased training and requests for federal money to pay for extra firefighting personnel. Each densely thicketed acre of hillside chaparral contains about 60 tons of brush, he said, and that 60 tons has about the same fuel energy as 3,750 gallons of gasoline. "Then, if you put 80 m.p.h. winds -- the kind of Santa Anas we get in September -- behind all that, a fire can consume 100 acres a minute and keep right on going," Franklin said. "You're talking an energy release equivalent to several nuclear events, the energy of a number of Hiroshimas." The county Fire Department map shows that the most threatened residential areas include a number of hillside and canyon communities within the city of Los Angeles, including parts of Baldwin Hills, Hollywood, the Los Feliz district, Tarzana, Encino, Sherman Oaks, Sunland and Sylmar. Especially threatened suburban communities include portions of Rolling Hills, Rancho Palos Verdes, Beverly Hills, Glendale, Pasadena, Altadena, Arcadia, Monrovia, Bradbury, Duarte, Azusa, Glendora, Claremont and Whittier. Doug Allen, a fire prevention officer with the state Division of Forestry, said residents should clear tall grass, brush, trash, firewood and other combustibles at least 30 feet from any building. FIRE STRESS AREAS Map shows largely undeveloped land where dead brush and a lack of leaf moisture in live brush create high fire hazards. Fire officials say these are areas where blazes can start and expand rapidly, spreading from open land to homes and other structures. What You Can Do Fire officials have a number of recommendations for residents of areas where the wildfire danger is high: Clear brush and grass a minimum of 30 feet away from any buildings. Do not not store firewood, trash or other combustibles within 30 feet of any building. Do not smoke, barbecue or build a campfire outdoors until the rainy season resumes in the fall. Do not drive motor vehicles in off-road areas where brush and grass grow. Exhaust sparks and hot mufflers start many wildfires. Do not use an indoor fireplace that is not equipped with a spark-arresting device. In case of fire, turn off all tap water unless instructed otherwise. Indiscriminate use of water can lower the pressure to those who need it to fight the blaze.

fire officials;fuel source;prolonged drought;rainfall season;vulnerable foothills;southern california neighborhoods;wildfire danger;fire prevention regulations;vulnerable fire zones;wildfire seasons;high fire hazards

LA052289-0050

RENEWAL AT YELLOWSTONE; FIRE RULES AFFECTED; CONTROVERSY STILL SMOLDERS AT YELLOWSTONE

This has always been a land of stark contrasts and magnificent subtleties, never more so than in the aftermath of last summer's spectacular season of fire which scorched enough timber and meadow to rival Rhode Island in size. From the sky where the graceful bald eagles soar, the oldest and grandest of our national parks now resembles a peculiar marble cake, baked by the caprice of nature into patternless swirls of vegetation and death. Much Unscathed Despite infernos that whipped through the treetops like blast furnaces, most of the pristine landscape emerged unscathed, as did the elusive grizzly bears in the high country, the resilient herds of elk and bison and the famous geysers that fill the air with eerie puffs of steam and mist. With the last of the winter snow rapidly melting, much of Yellowstone is bathed in the glorious hues of spring. But cut into the green are huge gashes of once-thriving forest that now appear either pitch black or rusty brown, depending on whether the trees were roasted or merely singed. Either way, they're dead. Once-lush hillsides are now covered by little more than the skeletons of stately lodgepole pines. Their needles, twigs and even limbs gone up in smoke, some of these "widowmakers," as loggers call them, still jut precariously from the charred dirt. Others lay scattered across the ground like giant pick-up-sticks. Down at ground level, the same scenery is a thing of beauty, not devastation, to the eyes of soil scientist Henry Shovic. He turns a spade of blackened earth and finds rich brown soil just beneath the crust, a sign that the forest not only remains fertile but will soon be teeming with new life. Already, clumps of grasses are beginning to jut to the surface and here and there a yellow buttercup or purple shooting star has also broken through. In a few weeks, meadow floors will be carpeted in a thick blanket of wildflowers. "Did you see the green?" asks Shovic, ecstatic. "I'm amazed. It's going to be a picture postcard." Spring Brings Rebirth Spring has come to Yellowstone and with it an inspiring process of rebirth and renewal. But while the 1988 blazes have long since flamed out, the controversy they kindled is still smoldering. It is sure to leave its mark on future fire and management policies not just at Yellowstone but throughout the vast system of national parks and wilderness areas. "It was a hell of a summer, let me tell you," said Yellowstone Supt. Bob Barbee. Arguments still rage over the impact of the fires on wildlife, the conduct of officials responsible for monitoring the blazes and the role of the media and others in creating an erroneous impression that a national treasure had somehow been reduced to cinders. The debate has also served to underscore a basic conflict in the mission of national parks as set out by Congress. On the one hand, they are supposed to be preserves of the past, the last outposts in America where nature is allowed to take its course with as little intrusion as possible from man. On the other hand, they are also set aside as vacation and tourist havens for the taxpayers, who, after all, pay the bills. If nothing else, said James Agee, a forest ecology specialist at the University of Washington, the furor raised by the fires should force environmentalists to temper their purist approach to park management. Ecologists argue that wildfires clear away dead timber and overgrowth and are vital to the rejuvenation of forests. Tied to Neighbors But "parks can no longer be considered ecological and sociological islands," Agee told a conference of conservationists here over the weekend. "They are inextricably tied to their neighbors for better or worse." Some movement in that direction may already be under way. The Interior Department, parent of the National Park Service, has already ordered a summer-long moratorium on its politically sensitive "let-burn" policy, under which lightning-triggered blazes are allowed to burn unless they threaten human lives or property. The edict applies to all but two parks in Florida. "With the exception of Big Cypress and the Everglades, we will be in full suppression mode," a park service spokesman explained. And, after a sweeping review and nationwide public hearings, the agency has tentatively decided to modify -- though not flatly abandon -- the controversial fire strategy once the moratorium expires. Under the changes, expected to be announced shortly by Bush Administration officials, all parks would have to run through a safety check list that includes an assessment of weather, moisture, winds and available firefighting crews before they could make a decision on whether or not to let a lightning fire burn. Leading environmentalists are cautiously optimistic about the new plan because it retains at least a stated commitment to the retention of so-called "natural" policies. At the same time, however, they warn that saddling park managers with extensive conditions could effectively result in quick suppression of all wildfires. May Become Gun-Shy Michael Scott, regional director of the Wilderness Society, said restrictions could lead to a "systematic politicization of ecosystem management" and make officials gun-shy about letting fire burn for any reason. "They're going to say 'we better just put out the fires,' " Scott predicted. "There could be a chilling effect on allowing nature to take its course." From an ecologist's standpoint, the "let-burn" policy could be the most serious casualty of last year's blazes, which swelled to historic proportions and ultimately seared nearly 1 million of the park's 2.2 million acres. Heeding complaints that fires were getting out of hand and could threaten surrounding communities, officials suspended the policy by mid-July. And some of last year's most destructive blazes were triggered by man, not nature, and fought from the first sign of smoke. Eventually 25,000 firefighters were called in from around the nation and the bill for suppression efforts soared to $120 million, nearly 10 times the size of Yellowstone's annual operating budget. Authorities say the flames were fanned by record drought and gale- force winds and virtually nothing could have stopped them. "What is most humbling is that one-quarter inch of rain and snow on Sept. 11 essentially stopped what the greatest firefighting effort in history could not," argued John Varley, Yellowstone's chief scientist. But many local politicians and residents disagree. They say the park did too little, too late and let the fires get out of hand. And many people who live in nearby resort communities remain bitter over what they contend was a preventable tragedy that could scare away tourists and imperil their livelihoods. "If (park superintendent) Barbee were here I'd choke him to death even today," said Betty Morton, a motel owner in tiny Cooke City, where the threat of fire forced a temporary evacuation last September. "Even a 5-year-old child knows if something's burning you got to stop it quick. All that stuff about burning's good for growth is a crock. I'll never see any of it in my lifetime." Will Keep Job While many critics have called for Barbee's head, Interior Secretary Manuel Lujan Jr. said in an interview that the Yellowstone superintendent was in no danger of losing his job. Still, Lujan, a former New Mexico congressman appointed to his Cabinet post only this year, said park officials should have "admitted" that they erred in losing control of the blazes. To a great extent, lingering resentment over the conduct of firefighting efforts is fueled by economic uncertainty. Morton, for example, said all 12 of the cabins she rents out are usually reserved for the Memorial Day weekend weeks in advance. This year, only one of the rooms has been taken so far. There are conflicting signals over what impact the fires have had on the tourist trade. Other independent innkeepers, as well as lodges in the park, also report that reservations are soft. However, Marsha Karle, a spokeswoman for the park, said letters and calls logged by Yellowstone operators are about double their usual pace and the number of visitors entering the park so far this spring has been well above normal. The park has embarked on an unprecedented publicity drive as well as an $8.5-million rehabilitation project to reassure reluctant tourists that it has not been transformed into a bleak wasteland. The centerpiece of the campaign appears to be an effort to turn what, to some might appear a disaster, into an opportunity.

yellowstone park fires;fire ecology;natural fires;lodgepole pines;lightning fire;human-caused fires;yellowstone national park reforestation;firefighting efforts;destructive blazes;firefighting crews

LA060490-0083

ONE SYMPTOM OF 'MAD COW' DISEASE IS TRADE FRICTION

"Mad cow" disease, an enigmatic nervous disorder that has killed thousands of cattle in Britain, is causing trade friction in Europe and is threatening the $3.7-billion British beef industry. On Friday, West Germany joined France in a ban on British beef imports, citing health fears related to the mysterious ailment, whose technical name is bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE). Concern that the disease can be transmitted to humans has made the subject Topic A in the pubs and press of Britain, and has put a serious crimp in domestic beef sales. Despite assurances from the British government that the beef is safe, consumers and some scientists remain skeptical. British officials complain that the French and German import ban is a result of economic, not health, concerns. The price of British beef is dropping in the wake of the "mad cow" scare. Therefore, British officials believe, France and West Germany imposed the bans to protect their domestic sales. "It's totally unjustified and illegal," said Patrick Barrow, spokesman for the Meat and Livestock Commission, a trade organization. France accounted for slightly more than half of Britain's beef exports last year, buying 70,000 tons of beef worth $264 million. West Germany bought $50 million worth last year. Although other countries have recently placed some restrictions on British beef and cattle, the French and German moves were the strongest by far. The United States does not import British beef and recently rescinded permits for the importation of live cattle. British officials have been joined by European Community commissioners in protesting the French and Germany import ban. Mad cow disease has been responsible for the deaths of nearly 14,000 cows since it was first noticed in the mid-1980s. BSE-infected cows "degenerate very quickly," said a spokeswoman from Britain's Ministry of Agriculture. The cows become aggressive and then wobbly-legged before dying. No one is certain what causes the disease, which affects the cow's brain. But the prime suspect is tainted cow feed. Some experts believe that cattle contracted the disease as a result of eating food contaminated with the remains of sheep infected with a BSE-like disease called scrapie. Although government and industry officials have been concerned for some time, mad cow disease did not become a household word until recently. On May 11, the Ministry of Agriculture revealed that a Siamese cat had died from a disease identical to BSE. The press went wild with the story, suggesting, in boldface, that if cats can get it, people can too. Panic ensued. "BSE has been around for six or seven years," said David Lewis of the Meat and Livestock Commission. "And until the cat, it hadn't been brought into the home." Beef sales dropped, with surveys showing that about a quarter of British households had stopped eating it. Two thousand schools dropped beef from their menus. The government and meat industry fought back. Some regulations were enacted to fight the disease, but more overt was the publicity campaign: Princess Anne said her family was still eating British beef.

mad cow disease;bovine spongiform encephalopathy;germany import ban;health fears;bse-infected cows;british beef imports;trade friction

LA061589-0143

U.S. REACTION; BEN JOHNSON'S 100-METER RECORD SHOULDN'T STAND, ATHLETES AND OFFICIALS SAY

Ben Johnson should be stripped of his world record in the 100-meter dash and it should be awarded to Carl Lewis, many U.S. track and field officials and athletes said Wednesday in the aftermath of Johnson admitting to his steroid use. Johnson testified this week at a Canadian inquiry that his seven-year involvement with illegal performance-enhancing drugs included injections before the 1987 World Championships in Rome, where he set the existing world record of 9.83 seconds. "I would have to see the evidence, but if he was on drugs at the time of the World Championships, my thought would be to remove his record," said Ollan Cassell, executive director of The Athletics Congress, the national governing board for the sport. Cassell is also a vice president of the International Amateur Athletic Federation, the world governing organization. The possibility that Johnson could lose his record was raised when the IAAF asked for "an urgent legal opinion" to see what it could do about records and championships of confessed drug users. The issue would be decided at the IAAF Congress, scheduled for Barcelona, Spain, in September. "The . . . actions would allow the IAAF, if it so decided, retroactively to withdraw results obtained and any records achieved by such athletes," the statement said. It was not clear, however, whether any action taken by the congress would affect Johnson's world mark because effective dates of retroactive sanctions would have to be worked out. Frank Greenberg, TAC president, said: "We'll wait to see what Canada does," following the country's inquiry at which 40 persons, among them Johnson, his coach, Charlie Francis, and his physician, Jamie Astaphan, testified. "I feel we will do our best to advocate that our athlete, Carl Lewis, gets the world record," Greenberg said. Lewis has the second-fastest legal time in history, 9.92, in finishing second to Johnson at last year's Seoul Olympics. Johnson, who clocked 9.79 in that race, lost the record and his gold medal, and was barred from competition for two years after testing positive for an anabolic steroid. There was much discussion among athletes competing this week in the TAC Championships about whether Johnson should be allowed back into the sport after he completes his two-year suspension. Lewis thinks he should. "He went a long time without telling the truth, but he broke down and he has told the truth," said Lewis, a six-time Olympic gold medalist. "He is giving us an opportunity to believe him, to support him. "I even heard him speaking out against drugs and that's the important thing." Al Joyner, the 1984 Olympic gold medalist in the triple jump, said Johnson should be allowed to compete again, only because that is the rule. "But all his records should be taken because he admitted it," Joyner added. "He killed a lot of fans . . . a lot of young kids . . . and he almost killed our sport . . . he put a dark shadow over it . . . because of who he was," Joyner said. Sprinter Harvey Glance, a three-time Olympian and president of TAC's Athletes Advisory Committee, said Johnson should be allowed to return after two years. "But if he admits he was on anything (when he set the record), then it should go to the next person, Carl Lewis," Glance said. "Only the records will show it and only Ben knows." Johnson was tested after his world-record run in Rome, but the results were negative.

canadian inquiry;carl lewis;world record;steroid use;world championships;100-meter dash;ben johnson;illegal performance-enhancing drugs

LA070189-0080

ANTELOPE VALLEY BLAZE CONTAINED; CLEVELAND FOREST FIRE CONTROLLED

Firefighters got the upper hand Friday on an 8,200-acre brush fire in Cleveland National Forest that destroyed 11 structures near Lake Elsinore in Riverside County. Aided by higher humidity and a decrease in wind, fire crews had more than 85% of the blaze surrounded late Friday afternoon and began releasing many of the 2,300 people who had been fighting the fire. Officials predicted that the blaze would be completely under control by Saturday morning but would not be extinguished until midday Sunday. 2,000 Acres Burned Meanwhile, a brush fire that burned more than 2,000 acres of mostly rugged terrain in the Antelope Valley this week was contained by firefighters Friday morning, authorities said. Authorities estimated that fighting the fire near Lake Elsinore will wind up costing $1.5 million. They said the blaze resulted in more than $1.1 million damage to various structures in remote canyons and to the watershed that feeds Lake Elsinore. Investigators said the fire appears to have been caused by people near a roadside store just across the Orange County line, near the crest of Ortega Highway. They again appealed to the public for help in identifying those responsible. Charred Landscape Dean McAlister, a U.S. Forest Service spokesman, said fire crews late Friday were hiking into the rugged, charred landscape along the Orange-Riverside county line to do battle with sections of the fire still consuming brush and timber. Officials said they hope to salvage some of the unaffected terrain, which can act as habitat islands for birds and other wildlife. Although officials first believed that the fire would be contained by late Friday afternoon, they revised their estimates because of troubles battling lingering flames on the southern edge of the blaze, inside the rugged, 3,400-acre San Mateo Wilderness. Fire crews were forced to work mostly with shovels, picks and other hand equipment to cut fire lines in that area. "It's down to the hard grunt work, the stuff for the guys who like to sweat," said Stephen Guarino, a Riverside County Fire Department spokesman. Residents Return Residents evacuated from 200 homes near Lake Elsinore on Wednesday evening have returned to their houses, authorities said. The Ortega Highway will remain closed through the weekend as crews continue to work, effectively shutting down several popular campgrounds and picnic spots over the busy holiday. Four firefighters were injured fighting the blaze, one of them seriously, authorities said. U.S. Forest Service spokesman Robert Brady said the Antelope Valley fire was 100% contained at 8 a.m. Friday. All Los Angeles County firefighters were released from the fire lines, and a crew of 95 Forest Service firefighters were left to "mop up," Brady said. Home Burned The fire claimed 2,250 acres along the outskirts of Elizabeth Lake and Green Valley. Six structures were burned, including one home, and more than 1,000 people were forced to temporarily evacuate on Wednesday. More than 300 firefighters battled the blaze during the three days. Brady said there were no injuries reported. Times staff writer Michael Connelly contributed to this article.

brush fire;damage;fire crews;blaze;investigators;firefighters;cleveland national forest

LA070190-0073

'MR. TORNADO' DEVOTES LIFE TO UNDERSTANDING NATURE'S AWESOME DESTRUCTIVE POWER

Tetsuya Theodore Fujita saw his only natural tornado near Denver in 1982. "It was like meeting my lover," he says. "Since then, my passion really went up," said Fujita, a professor of geophysical science who has been studying tornadoes for 42 years and is considered one of the world's foremost authorities on the violent storms. Fujita, 69, spends much of his time in his lab at the University of Chicago creating tornadoes for research. He creates tornadoes over a large fan, which makes a swirling motion; another fan above simulates a low-pressure system by adding an updraft to the mix. With a bit of steam added to make the phenomenon visible, he creates twisters six to eight feet tall. The miniature versions are as impossible to redirect or squelch as their full-size cousins, he says. He has tried by crawling right up next to them and using rulers or books to change their direction. Fujita came to the United States from Japan in 1953, partly because there are so many tornadoes in this country. "Tornadoes are very rare in Japan," Fujita said. "They have about 10 to 15 a year. But one occurred within about 15 miles of my hometown. I was quite impressed with the localized severity of the wind." When he saw his first tornado, he and a team of scientists were studying wind shear and its effect on aircraft. "It's a beautiful thing," Fujita said. "Of course, I was 20 miles away from that one. "If you're in it," he added, "it's a terrible thing." Forecasters still have trouble predicting tornadoes. But Fujita has helped define the conditions most likely to spawn them. Groups of thunderstorms are not as likely to spawn tornadoes as single, large storms because multiple storms in the same area compete. "Each one tries to rotate, but they all can't. They're just like human beings: The rich may become richer and the poor may get poorer." Fujita also discovered that most strong tornadoes are actually six or seven small twisters he calls suction vortices, rotating around the center of a larger tornado. "A suction vortex can pick up a car or a small house or something, but when you're standing right next to it you can be completely safe." He has studied tornadoes that have dropped houses into lakes, made off with one car and left another right next to it untouched, and moved whole flocks of cows and sheep -- which lived through the experience. He also developed the Fujita scale for measuring the strength of tornadoes. It runs from zero -- a tornado that might break twigs on trees -- to five -- a twister that can rip houses from their foundations. But Fujita considers his work on other air movements called downbursts and microbursts among his most significant achievements. Downbursts are powerful drafts of air moving down from a thunderstorm cloud. Scientists long thought the drafts dissipated before reaching the ground. Microbursts are smaller versions of downbursts, but are more dangerous because they give pilots less time to react, Fujita said. The National Transportation Safety Board has cited microbursts, a term coined by Fujita, as the cause of 17 aircraft accidents in the last 15 years, causing 577 fatalities. Among them was the 1985 crash of a Delta L-1011 in Dallas that killed 137 people. A downburst also was implicated in the collapse of a wall at a school in Newburgh, N.Y., that killed nine children. Fujita's work helped persuade the Federal Aviation Administation to begin installing a new radar system at 47 major airports beginning in the early 1990s. The Doppler radar system was credited with helping three jetliners at Denver's airport avoid potentially catastrophic microbursts last year. Fujita retires from teaching this year, but will continue his research at the university. "In Texas one time, five people were killed when they drove right into a tornado. They just didn't know any better," Fujita said. "I want to make people safer."

violent storms;small twisters;tornadoes;scientists;natural tornado;fujita;thunderstorms

LA071589-0076

BID TO EXCLUDE ILLEGALS FROM CENSUS HIT; OFFICIALS SAY MOVE WOULD HURT STATE IN CONGRESS, CUT FEDERAL AID

Public officials throughout California have condemned a U.S. Senate vote Thursday to exclude illegal aliens from the 1990 census, saying the action will shortchange California in Congress and possibly deprive the state of millions of dollars of federal aid for medical emergency services and other programs for poor people. "I think it's an outrageous piece of legislation and probably unconstitutional," Assemblyman Peter Chacon said Friday. Chacon, a San Diego Democrat, is the chairman of the Assembly's Elections, Reapportionment and Constitutional Amendments Committee. At the same time, the Senate's action has created great confusion and stirred hopes, especially among urban Democrats, that it will be overturned by the House of Representatives. Major Impact If it becomes law, the Senate's action could have a major impact on California and other states where the influx of illegal aliens significantly boosts the population and, thus, can affect the size of congressional delegations and the amount of federal aid that is doled out. With an estimated population of about 28 million people, California is thought to have at least 50% of the nation's 3 million to 8 million illegal aliens. Authorities on reapportionment have widely predicted that California would gain five to seven congressional seats as a result of population gains made during the last decade. But if illegal aliens are not counted, the experts say the state would not get one of the anticipated seats. "It's hard to tell exactly how many congressional seats California will lose. But we could have gotten six or seven additional seats and this could cost us one or two. It's possible," said state Sen. Milton Marks, a San Francisco Democrat who chairs the Senate's Elections and Reapportionment Committee. Loss of Funds Feared Jesse R. Huff, the state's financial director, said the state could lose as much as $300 million in federal aid that is allocated on the basis of population as determined by census counts. Los Angeles County officials said the measure could cut off federal funds for emergency medical services for illegal aliens. In the past, about $80 million annually in such services for illegal aliens has been paid out, with about half of that amount paid in Los Angeles County, according to Mark Tajima, a legislative analyst employed by the county's chief administrative officer. Los Angeles City Atty. James K. Hahn described the Senate's vote as an attempt by "callous, self-serving interests in Washington, D.C., to deny representation and financial resources to minorities and underprivileged in our cities." Hahn's office said the city could lose at least $20 million in federal aid over the next 10 years -- money that goes for child care, housing rehabilitation, drug counseling and services for homeless people. Immigration Law Overhaul The measure passed by the Senate was part of a larger overhaul of the nation's immigration laws that, if it becomes law, would place an annual cap of 630,000 immigrants for each of the next three years and make room for more residents of Western Europe. The Senate bill is expected to face tough opposition in the House, where states such as California, New York and Illinois with large alien populations have many votes. Moreover, a federal court in Pittsburgh ruled earlier this year that excluding illegal aliens from the census would be unconstitutional. But even if the Senate's action were to become law, it is not clear how much impact it would have on federal aid. "I think the effect is going to be minimal," said Michael Myers, counsel to the House subcommittee on immigration and refugee affairs. Myers said the measure would prohibit aliens from receiving direct federal benefits, such as Social Security payments. But he maintained that such ineligibility is already written into a number of federal programs. Myers said that most of the assistance that states and cities now receive comes in the form of block grants that do not qualify as direct financial aid and, therefore, would not be affected. Puzzled by Action Still, many local officials remain puzzled by the Senate's action. Tajima said he was not sure whether programs such as foster care for abused and neglected children or Supplemental Security Income for aged, blind or disabled people would be vulnerable. "They all involve direct payments by the county of federal money," he said. In Orange County, with the second-largest illegal alien population in the state, officials warned that any effort by the Census Bureau to identify illegals would promote "fear and intimidation" among recent immigrants, both legal and illegal. Any such effort, officials said, would discourage people from participating in the census and even further reduce official population figures. "They counted them in 1980, and now for them to say they won't count them in 1990 is ludicrous," said Angelo Doti, director of financial assistance for the Orange County Social Services Agency. "The fact is they are here. They're going to stay here. They pay taxes and are going to avail themselves of our services. We need to know the numbers. To not count them is to close our eyes," Doti said. Times staff writers Jerry Gillam and Marcida Dodson contributed to this article.

1990 census;federal aid;congressional seats;census bureau;u.s. senate vote;illegal aliens;census counts;california

LA071590-0068

4 WHO CLAIM POLICE BEAT THEM WERE NOT CHARGED; OXNARD: THE PUBLIC DEFENDER'S OFFICE SAYS IT IS VERY UNUSUAL FOR THE DISTRICT ATTORNEY'S OFFICE NOT TO PROSECUTE SUSPECTS ACCUSED OF CRIMES BY POLICE.

Over the past two years, the Ventura County district attorney's office in four separate incidents has declined to prosecute suspects who contended that they were victims of police brutality while being arrested for various offenses by Oxnard officers, records show. In a fifth and more recent incident, the district attorney's office declined to file a charge of assaulting an officer against an Oxnard man who says he and several other guests at a June 15 private party were beaten by Oxnard police. Instead, Anthony Flores, 22, was charged with five misdemeanor counts of resisting arrest. The men involved in three of the five incidents have filed police brutality lawsuits against the city, the department or the police officers involved. The suits, which seek unspecified damages and medical and legal expenses, are pending. Two of the incidents have led to an investigation by the Police Department's internal affairs division. Deputy Dist. Atty. Edward Brodie, misdemeanor supervisor for the office, said the decisions not to prosecute the suspects do not necessarily mean that Oxnard police were not justified in making the arrests. In each of the four cases, Brodie said, his office did not prosecute because it found that police did not provide enough evidence to prove the charges "beyond a reasonable doubt." But Jean Farley, a supervisor for the Ventura County public defender's office, said it is extremely rare for the district attorney's office not to prosecute a suspect who is accused by police. The district attorney's office may have declined to prosecute the suspects because police brutality has been alleged, she said. Prosecution is usually turned down when the arresting officer is suspected of using excessive force, she said. Assistant Police Chief William Kady declined to discuss the brutality allegations against the Oxnard officers because of pending litigation. He said, however, that the decisions by the district attorney's office not to prosecute the suspects do not reflect poorly on the department. "I don't think our reputation is any worse than any other department's," he said. "There is always going to be a disagreement over how much force is used." The latest incident involving an accusation of police brutality stemmed from the June 15 clash between 18 officers and about 12 party guests at a house in the 1300 block of South E Street. It began when four officers answered complaints about a loud party. A police report said Flores started the fight by shoving a policeman. Flores and his brothers, Alex, 19, and Luis Jr., 24 -- all of whom suffered gashes and scrapes on their heads and bodies -- said the officers beat them without provocation. Police had arrested Flores on suspicion of assaulting an officer and of resisting arrest but the district attorney's office decided two weeks later to prosecute Flores on the five misdemeanor counts of resisting arrest. "Based upon my review of all the reports, the charges were the most appropriate charges to file," said Deputy Dist. Atty. Donald Gran, who declined to elaborate. Police Chief Robert Owens has ordered an investigation into the incident. In an incident April 7, Sergio E. Gonzalez, 19, accused Oxnard officers of ordering a police dog to attack him before he was arrested. In a suit filed June 29, Gonzalez said he was standing on Sunkist Circle when the dog attacked him, biting him on the arm and left shoulder. Gonzalez was taken to St. John's Regional Medical Center, where he underwent surgery and spent two weeks recovering from his injuries. Edward M. Fox, an attorney representing Gonzalez, said his client, a gardener, might suffer some permanent injury to his right arm. According to a police report filed by Officer Michael Cole, police were sent to a parking lot outside the Oxnard Moose Lodge to investigate a report of an altercation between several men after a wedding reception. Cole's report said Gonzalez was found hiding in the parking lot and "was bit by a police service dog during the arrest." The report, however, does not say why the dog attacked Gonzalez or whether Gonzalez resisted arrest. Police arrested Gonzalez on suspicion of disturbing the peace, Brodie said. But the district attorney's office declined to file any charges because the police report failed to show that Gonzalez was involved in the altercation, Brodie said. Fox said Gonzalez did not attend the wedding but was visiting a friend nearby and went to the parking lot to find out what was causing the commotion. In a third incident, Louis M. Cornett, a retired teacher and licensed gun dealer, said he was beaten on Oct. 20 while in custody at Oxnard police headquarters. Cornett said the altercation began as he was returning home after scouting out a site for quail hunting near Santa Maria. Officer Robert Camarillo said in a police report that Cornett was arrested in the 3600 block of Taffrail Road on suspicion of brandishing a weapon, resisting arrest and possessing a loaded firearm. Camarillo said in the report that he stopped Cornett while investigating a complaint of a man waving a gun from a car and threatening youngsters packed into another vehicle. Camarillo said Cornett fit the description of the man who allegedly brandished the weapon. When he searched Cornett's car, Camarillo said, he found a semiautomatic handgun, several rounds of ammunition and a 12-gauge shotgun. Camarillo admitted that he later shoved Cornett against a wall at police headquarters because the suspect had struggled and had clenched his fists in a threatening manner. But a lawsuit against Camarillo filed May 8, 1989, alleges that while in custody at the police station, Camarillo shoved and punched Cornett in the mouth. "He slammed me in the mouth once, twice and a third time," Cornett said in an interview. Cornett, maintaining that he never struggled with the officer, said he suffered a broken tooth and a cut lip during the beating. The district attorney's office declined to file charges against Cornett because, Brodie said, there was insufficient evidence to prove that Cornett brandished a gun. In a fourth incident, Alejandro Guzman-Flores, 21, accused three Oxnard officers of beating him on his face, causing severe damage to his eyesight. Guzman-Flores said he was working in a motorcycle repair shop on Jan. 27, 1989, when his boss asked him to investigate a noise in the alley behind the shop in the 1500 block of South Pine Street. In a suit filed against the city Nov. 14, 1989, the Police Department and officers Jana Younger, Fred Sedillos and James Struck, Guzman-Flores contends that he was grabbed from behind by Younger while in the alley. The officer poked him with a baton and questioned him about a car parked nearby, Guzman-Flores said in the suit.

excessive force;forcible brutality;police officers;victims;arrest report;police brutality

LA072089-0140

JET CARRYING 293 CRASHES, BURNS IN IOWA; 166 SURVIVE

A crippled United Airlines DC-10 crashed a half-mile short of a runway while trying to make an emergency landing Wednesday afternoon, bursting into a cartwheeling fireball that broke into what one eyewitness described as "15,000 pieces" and killing at least 123 of the 293 passengers and crew members on board. Remarkably, as many as 166 persons survived the violent crash, according to Richard Vohs, a spokesman for Iowa Gov. Terry E. Branstad. The fate of four others was not immediately known. Tail Engine Explodes The plane's tail engine exploded before the crash but it was not immediately clear how the explosion contributed to what a Federal Aviation Administration spokesman called "complete hydraulic failure," an occurrence regarded as extremely rare in the wide-bodied DC-10, which has three independent hydraulic systems that operate all the plane's control surfaces on its wings and tail, and landing gear and brakes. As rescuers worked underneath floodlights to remove bodies from the crash site, original estimates of the death toll -- one as high as 190, which would have made the crash the second worst in U.S. history -- were reduced. "We don't have a firm count" of the dead, Vohs acknowledged at a press conference seven hours after the crash. "But right now, the number (of survivors) confirmed is 166." The survivors of Wednesday's United Flight 232 from Denver to Philadelphia via Chicago included several dozen passengers who managed to walk out of a dark, smoke-filled, upside-down section of the jet after it broke off and came to rest in a tall cornfield off the runway. "I walked out (through the back of the plane) and found myself in the cornfield," passenger David Landsberger told Cable News Network. "We were all walking around in shock. I just walked through it like it was a dream. I was a little dazed." "It's the goddamndest thing I ever saw in my life," said Charles Mertz of Castle Rock, Colo., another of those who walked away. Suitcases, paper, mail, clothes, chunks of burning metal and bodies were strewn over the inactive runway at Sioux Gateway Airport, where the plane crashed after desperately circling for a half-hour. One hundred ambulances, fire trucks and helicopters from as far away as South Dakota plucked out the victims. The search for bodies was difficult because some of them were scattered in the cornfield. Many of the survivors were listed in critical condition with burns or broken bones. United Airlines declined to comment on the number of survivors or to release the names of the 282 passengers and 11 crew members. Eyewitnesses said pieces of the 15-year-old airplane -- one of the oldest airliners in United's fleet -- were falling off as far as 75 miles from the site of the crash. A team of National Transportation Safety Board investigators left Washington Wednesday night for Sioux City. The hydraulic system that disintegrated Wednesday works the same way a power steering system operates in a car. By forcing liquid through a tube, the system provides enough power for a pilot to move an airliner's huge tail rudder and elevators, and wing panels known as flaps and ailerons -- all needed to steer an aircraft. Some aviation experts, speculating on why Flight 232 crashed after completing less than half of its scheduled 930-mile trip to Chicago, suggested that the explosion of the tail engine sent shards of metal through the tail section, somehow destroying common lines that serve the three hydraulic systems. There were reports from passengers and observers that the plane's right-wing engine also failed before the crash. In what survivors described as a heroic effort that nearly succeeded, the plane's Seattle-based captain, A. C. Haynes -- a 33-year veteran of the airline who along with the other 10 crew members survived the crash -- struggled for a half-hour to maintain control of the wobbling plane. Radio transmission indicated the plane's maneuverability was limited to right-hand turns. At one point, Haynes attempted a landing on Highway 20 near Cushing, Iowa, but chose not to touch down there in favor of trying to make Sioux City, a farming and livestock center of 82,000 in the northwest corner of Iowa along the Missouri River. Preparing for Crash Landing "Then they said we were preparing for a crash landing. They said it would be about 30 seconds, but it was about five minutes," another passenger said. Haynes brought the plane into the airport's 9,000-foot-long southwest runway, surrounded by corn, soybeans and pasture with some trees seven miles outside downtown Sioux City. At about 4 p.m. CDT, the plane made its final approach. Onlookers watched hopefully. "We thought it was going to make it," said Glen Olson, city editor of the Sioux City Journal. It didn't. Shortly before touchdown the plane's right wing began to dip and the nose began to fall. The wing hit the ground a half-mile before the runway. The impact caused the aircraft to turn over several times as it slid down the runway, "breaking up very badly," catching on fire and then exploding, according to Bob Raynesford, an FAA spokesman. "I think it turned over a couple of times. I think it landed upside down," said passenger Melanie Cincala of Toledo, Ohio, who said the plane burst into flames after she got off. A large piece of the fuselage barreled onto the runway. Huge clouds of smoke and flames billowed upward as firemen sprayed foam over the wreckage. Rescue helicopters hovered overhead. "We were sitting there upside down and it began to fill up with smoke," said Cliff Marshall of Columbus, Ohio, who was returning home from Denver. 'Push Little Girl Out' "Then God opened a hole in the basement (the bottom of the plane) and I pushed a little girl out. I grabbed another, kept pulling them out until they didn't come no more." Marshall said he thought he helped a half-dozen out and then he ran. Dr. Romaine Bendixen, clinic commander of Iowa National Guard's 185th tactical fighter group, said he was the first doctor on the scene, about three minutes after the crash. He had just landed in another plane. He said the living were scattered among the dead. "In one group of six seats, a woman sitting in the middle was barely injured, her husband beside her was dead and two behind her were dead," Bendixen said. He said rescuers pulled out three of the flight crew alive.

united airlines dc-10;violent crash;air crash;crash victims;flight crew;tail engine;explosion;emergency landing;complete hydraulic failure;crash landing

LA073089-0118

THE NRA FIGHTS BACK; ON THE DEFENSIVE OVER ASSAULT WEAPONS, THE GUN LOBBY IS USING CONTROVERSIAL TACTICS TO TARGET ITS ENEMIES

IN BLOOD-RED letters, the sign on the front window of the Dealers Outlet gun store in suburban Phoenix declared: "Urgent! Act Now! Stop the Gun Ban!" Inside, customers took time out from browsing through AK-47 assault rifles and a flock of other firearms to sign a petition -- and to vent their wrath at a local "turncoat," U.S. Sen. Dennis DeConcini (D-Ariz.). "We are petitioning to protest the semiautomatic gun-control bills before Congress," read the text above a fast-growing list of names. "If we allow the government to become involved in any type of gun control, we are violating a basic constitutional right, the right to keep and bear arms." The petitioners' target that sunny day last spring was DeConcini, a longtime opponent of gun-control measures who had suddenly switched sides, sponsoring one of the nine bills currently in Congress to ban the sale of assault weapons. "I'm a one-issue voter, and I'm going to do everything in my power to take DeConcini out," George Hiers, a burly man on crutches, vowed as he bought a semiautomatic shotgun for his wife to defend herself with while he's away on hunting trips. The attack on DeConcini was stirred up by the National Rifle Assn. in a display of fury that represented far more than retaliation against a former supporter. Long described as "the powerful gun lobby," the NRA is now scrambling to recover from stunning setbacks in the past three years. Over the NRA's opposition, Congress and state legislatures have enacted legislation banning "cop-killer bullets" that penetrate protective vests, plastic guns that can be slipped past metal detectors and "Saturday night specials" that are used in many crimes. And most recently, the group found itself caught in the furor over assault weapons that was ignited by the massacre of five children in a Stockton schoolyard last January. Those killings, combined with the increasing use of the weapons by drug dealers and youth gangs, have exacerbated the contentious relations between the NRA and its former allies. Law-enforcement leaders, concerned about rising violence and terrorism, have ended their friendliness toward the gun lobby and become well-organized in opposition. Politicians once fearful of the NRA have been much more willing to stand up to it; President Bush, an NRA "Life Member," on July 7 imposed a permanent ban on imports of assault rifles and has proposed limiting the semiautomatics' ammunition clips. The ban so infuriated some NRA members that they have launched petition drives in two dozen states to oust Bush from the organization. Meanwhile, California, whose voters only seven years ago defeated an initiative that would have frozen the number of handguns in the state, last May became the first state to ban assault weapons. At the same time, gun-control organizations are beginning to match the NRA's mass mailings, ads and lobbying; many schools are showing "Guns and the Constitution," an anti-gun video produced by Handgun Control Inc., whose chairwoman is Sarah Brady, wife of former White House Press Secretary James Brady, who was disabled by gunfire in the 1981 assassination attempt on then-President Reagan. And the NRA even is feeling pressure from more-militant gun groups that threaten to drain away members and funds. Although enjoying a membership surge, the NRA ran up a record $5.9-million deficit last year after spending more than $83 million. Thus, in fending off the assaults on assault weapons, the 118-year-old NRA is facing what its leaders call its most daunting challenge. "We're at a crossroads," James Jay Baker, the NRA's top congressional lobbyist, acknowledged as DeConcini's assault-weapons bill cleared its first Senate hurdle in April. "We're going to go down the road of either prohibitive firearms regulations or tough criminal justice provisions" -- that is, more prosecutors, penalties and prisons, the course sought by the NRA. "Once you get into a (gun-control) rut, it's tough to get out of that rut." Aside from the nation's capital, two of the hottest battlegrounds in the assault-weapons fight are Arizona and Florida. That would seem ironic, since guns permeate the cultures of those generally conservative states. But with opinion polls in both states showing that large majorities of residents support bans -- and with police complaining about being outgunned by criminals -- legislators have moved into action, spurring angry counterattacks from the NRA. Call Now! Write Today! AS PAT JONAS signed the petition in the gun store near Phoenix, one could witness the NRA's true political power: mobilizing citizens at the grass roots. "I don't want to see guns outlawed," Jonas said, "because I like to collect guns." Probably no other organization in the world floods government officials with as many phone calls, letters, telegrams and visits from its members as the NRA. Charles J. Orasin, president of 15-year-old Handgun Control -- the NRA's chief nemesis -- estimates that as many as 500,000 members of the NRA and other gun groups regularly lobby elected officials and bureaucrats. The outpouring is prompted by red-alert mailings churned out by NRA leaders, all sounding essentially the same alarm: They're out to get your guns. These letters go not only to the NRA's 2.9 million members, whose $25 annual membership fee brings such benefits as a magazine, gun-theft insurance and safety instruction, but also to 10,000 affiliated hunting organizations and shooting-competition groups. Time and again, the NRA has proved that citizen action generated by such mailings can have far more effect on legislation than opinion polls, especially when a majority for gun control is relatively silent. "If a lawmaker is looking for an excuse to vote with the NRA, all he has to say is, 'I got a hundred calls from the NRA, but none from the other side,' " said a congressional aide. And in a close election, a well-organized, single-interest group such as the NRA can wield decisive power by turning out highly motivated voters. It was one of these red-alert warnings, written by NRA lobbyist Baker, that had been delivered to 100,000 gun owners in Arizona and riled up the customers at the Dealers Outlet outside Phoenix. Baker's letter assailed DeConcini's bill, a scaled-down version of the one enacted by California in May. DeConcini's bill calls for a nationwide ban on sales of AK-47s and eight other semiautomatic rifles -- guns enjoying wide popularity because they have the menacing look and much of the firepower of fully automatic assault weapons used by the military and police. (Automatic guns fire 20 bullets or so per trigger pull; semiautomatics fire one bullet per trigger squeeze, but a fast index finger can get off as many as 20 shots in five seconds as ammunition is automatically reloaded from a clip.

gun-control bills;gun-control measures;nra;deconcini;gun control;constitutional right;firearms;gun ban;gun lobby

LA080189-0042

CREW TRAPPED IN CAPSIZED OIL RIG IN GULF; HURRICANE PERILS TEXAS, LOUISIANA

Hurricane Chantal, the first of the season, aimed for the Texas and Louisiana coasts Monday, a day in which the storm's winds capsized an oil drilling work vessel and trapped as many as 10 crew members inside. Three of the crewmen were picked up by a nearby fishing vessel and a fourth was plucked from the water by a Coast Guard helicopter. The Coast Guard also said there were unconfirmed reports that two others had been picked up by another boat. Rescue divers, however, were unable to search the overturned service vessel for survivors because of increasingly strong winds and high waves. The hope was that at least some of the crew would be in airtight cabins with enough oxygen to survive until help reached them. But Coast Guard Petty Officer Bob Morehead said the search was called off in the late afternoon because winds were in excess of 60 m.p.h. and waves were at 12 feet and building. Shortly thereafter, the National Hurricane Center in Miami announced that Chantal was blowing at more than 74 m.p.h., strong enough to move it into the lowest hurricane classification, and the winds were later reported at 75 m.p.h. The 72-foot service vessel, leased to the Chevron Corp. by the Avis Bourg Co., capsized about 25 miles south of Morgan City, La. It is a self-propelled vessel with legs that can be extended to the ocean floor. The boat was ordered into port because of the impending storm. Late Monday afternoon, Chantal was about 200 miles south-southeast of Galveston, Tex., traveling northwest at about 10 m.p.h. Officials at the National Hurricane Service in Miami said the storm was expected to reach land some time this afternoon or evening. The best estimate Monday was that the center of the hurricane would hit the western Louisiana or upper Texas coast. Hurricane warnings were issued from Freeport, Tex., to Morgan City. Tropical storm warnings were issued as far south as Port O'Connor, Tex., and as far east as Mobile, Ala. Bob Ebaugh, a weather specialist at the hurricane center, said 10 to 15 inches of rain was expected in southern Mississippi, Louisiana and East Texas. Meanwhile, coastal residents began what has long been a ritual along the Gulf Coast during hurricane season, which begins in late spring and runs through early fall. Grocery stores began reporting a steady demand for hurricane staples -- bottled water, batteries, canned goods and tape for windows. One particular concern in Houston was the possibility of major flooding should the city be on the wet, or eastern, side of the hurricane. In that event, the Houston area would have "extensive flooding," said Bill Evans, flood watch director for the Harris County Flood Control District. Besides heavy rains and wind, the hurricane is expected to cause tides 5 to 7 feet above normal. Chantal is the third named storm since the beginning of the hurricane season June 1. Tropical Storm Allison dumped huge amounts of rain on Texas and Louisiana in June, and Tropical Storm Barry dissipated in the Atlantic without reaching land.

coast guard;coastal residents;hurricane chantal;oil drilling work vessel;crew members;hurricane warnings;hurricane staples;hurricane season;rescue divers

LA080790-0111

JOE MORGAN'S SUIT PROTESTS DRUG 'PROFILE'; CIVIL RIGHTS: THE FORMER BASEBALL STAR SAYS HE WAS UNFAIRLY TARGETED BY POLICE AND ARRESTED AT LAX BECAUSE HE IS BLACK. A SECOND TRIAL ON HIS CLAIM IS SET.

As they scanned the flow of passengers at Los Angeles International Airport, police detective Clayton Searle and his fellow narcotics officer searched for the likely companion of the suspected drug courier who stood handcuffed nearby. When Searle noticed a short, muscular black man walk toward them and then turn abruptly toward a bank of telephones, the plainclothes Los Angeles police detective moved in quickly to question him. Within minutes, however, their words had turned into violence, and the two men toppled to the terminal floor where Searle handcuffed his suspect and pulled him to his feet. Placing his hand across the man's mouth, the officer then marched him away before a gathering crowd of gaping passersby. Only later did Searle and his partner from the Drug Enforcement Administration realize that the suspected drug courier they had arrested on that March day in 1988 was Joe Morgan, the former Cincinnati Reds second baseman who was inducted Monday into Major League baseball's Hall of Fame. The 46-year-old Morgan, who is now an Oakland businessman and baseball broadcaster, is suing Searle and the city of Los Angeles in federal court, claiming that he was unfairly targeted because he is black and fit a certain "profile" that narcotics officers think a drug courier should look like. "There's no doubt in our mind that the only reason they stopped Joe Morgan was because he is black and he was the first black who happened to come by," said William Barnes, one of the attorneys representing the former ballplayer. The Morgan case also reflects a growing criticism of police use of the drug courier profile to stem the flow of drugs through airports. "It's purely based on race or dress, not on whether you are involved in any drug activity," said Gary Trichter, a Houston defense lawyer and former police officer who specializes in such cases. First developed in the 1970s, the drug courier profile was based on patterns of behavior believed to be used by those who use commercial airline flights to transport narcotics. Such suspicious behavior include erratic movements, paying for tickets with cash, using an alias, boarding a long flight without luggage and staying briefly in distant cities known to be sources of narcotics. Last year, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that government agents may stop and question airline passengers who look and act like drug couriers. But the court said brief detentions must be based on a person's behavior, not just on race or appearance. "Profiles are important and we use them, but exactly how we use them or what the profile is I cannot tell you," said Los Angeles Police Department Cmdr. William Booth. "It is certainly not something based on any prejudice or racism. It's based on trying to protect the public." He said that last year, 254 narcotics arrests were made at Los Angeles International Airport. Through Aug. 3 of this year, there have been 121 such arrests. Frank Schults, chief of public affairs for the DEA in Washington, denied that his agency uses drug courier profiles. "We have any number of investigative techniques and ways to identify people involved in moving drugs, but a profile is not one of them," he said. Neither Booth nor Schults would comment on the Morgan lawsuit, which is scheduled to go to trial for a second time next month in Los Angeles. Morgan is seeking unspecified damages, claiming that his civil rights were violated. Last April, a six-person federal jury rejected Morgan's case. But two months later, U.S. District Judge Mariana R. Pfaelzer set aside the verdict after ruling that she had failed to instruct jurors that Morgan had been illegally detained by police. "There isn't any possible other conclusion but that the stop was illegal," the judge concluded. Both Searle, a 20-year Police Department veteran, and William Woessner, a DEA agent who was subsequently dropped from the lawsuit, have denied that they did anything wrong. "I wish that this hadn't happened," Searle said. "I wish (Morgan) luck now that I know who he is. I just hope I never see him again." Morgan could not be reached for comment. But in court documents, he said that on March 15, 1988, he was waiting at Los Angeles International Airport for a connecting flight to Tucson to attend a golf tournament and was innocently making a phone call when Searle suddenly grabbed his shoulder and spun him around. Asked to identify himself, Morgan said he told the officer that his wallet was in an attache case about 40 feet away but that Searle refused to let him retrieve it. When a bystander -- who would later testify for Morgan -- recognized the former player and tried to intervene, both men claimed that Searle warned the man to stay away. Minutes later, Morgan said, Searle grabbed him by the neck and they fell to the floor. Morgan said the officer then put a knee in his back, wrenched his arms behind him and handcuffed him. He was taken to a small children's nursery in the terminal and interrogated, but within minutes the officers had confirmed his identity, Morgan said. Searle then offered to free him if he would forget the matter, according to Morgan's lawsuit. Instead, Morgan filed his complaint, in part, to discourage similar incidents from occurring, his attorneys said. "This happened to Joe Morgan, but it really is applicable to any black person who uses Los Angeles airport," said Oakland attorney Edwin Wilson Jr., who also is black. "If it wasn't Joe, this could have happened to me or my father or to any other black person." Searle, 42, denied the allegations but told The Times he could not discuss specifics of the case. "All I can say is that the guy is a great baseball player and appears to be a good announcer," Searle said. "I wish it didn't happen. He just sort of went out of control." Assistant City Atty. Honey A. Lewis, who represents the officer and the Police Department, said Searle had acted properly and was merely asking Morgan to identify himself when Morgan suddenly became belligerent, spewing profanities and slapping the officer. "My argument is that Mr. Morgan overreacted," Lewis said. "If he had cooperated, none of this would have happened. I think he had a bruised ego, and he was offended because the officer hadn't recognized him." According to Searle's sworn court deposition, the incident began after he and Woessner, working together as members of an airport anti-drug task force, had arrested a passenger as a suspected drug courier. They said he was using an alias. Although the officers found no drugs in his possession, Searle said they discovered that the passenger was holding a second plane ticket, and they began looking for his companion. Since the passenger was black and indicated that his companion "looked like me," the officer began looking for a black man who was nervous-looking or having "other characteristics of a narcotics courier." When they spotted Morgan, Searle said, he tried to speak to him but Morgan started screaming profanities and "making animal noises" and hit him in the chest with a wild swing. In his suit, Morgan denies that and contends that he suffered "acute physical and emotional distress and embarrassment" after the incident and expressed concern about damage to his reputation. RELATED STORY: C14

police officer;drugs;public affairs;clayton searle;joe morgan;los angeles;racism

LA081489-0025

LELAND CRASH SITE FOUND; ALL 16 KILLED; WRECKAGE OF PLANE WITH CONGRESSMAN SPOTTED IN ETHIOPIA

U.S. military helicopters on Sunday located the wreckage of a plane that crashed last Monday with Texas congressman Mickey Leland and 15 others aboard. Witnesses who visited the site said there were no survivors. U.S. rescue and recovery teams said that the plane hit a mountain about 4,300 feet above sea level, having missed clearing the peak by about 300 feet. The crash site is about 75 miles east of the Fugnido refugee camp that Leland was flying to visit when the plane vanished in heavy weather last Monday. "If they would have flown over that peak they would have been home free," said Rep. Gary L. Ackerman (D-N.Y.), a colleague of Leland's who has accompanied search crews for the last two days and was aboard the helicopter that first spotted the wreckage Sunday. Ackerman said that the plane appeared to have hit "nose first, right into the rocks; its two wings sheared off, its engines melted, its fuselage gone." Wreckage Examined Ackerman said that military paratroopers lowered themselves from his helicopter on ropes to examine the wreckage. "They told us everyone had died instantaneously," Ackerman said. The 44-year-old Leland, a Democrat, was making his sixth tour of refugee camps along the Ethiopia-Sudan border as chairman of the House Select Committee on Hunger, a panel he had helped to establish five years ago. Also aboard the plane were Hugh Anderson Johnson Jr. and Patrice Yvonne Johnson, both aides to Leland (who were not related); Joyce Francine Williams, an aide to Rep. Ronald V. Dellums (D-Berkeley), and an expert on child nutrition; Y. Ivan Tillen, a New York businessman and friend of Leland's; Robert Woods, a political and economic officer at the American Embassy in Addis Ababa; Gladys Gilbert, a special projects officer for the mission of the U.S. Agency for International Development attached to the embassy; Thomas Worrick, the acting AID representative in Ethiopia, and Worrick's wife, Roberta. 7 Ethiopians Killed Also on board were Debebe Agonofer, an Ethiopian agricultural economist with the AID mission, and six other Ethiopians, including the plane's crew of three. Reaction to the news in the United States was one of sadness coupled with an outpouring of praise for Leland's work. A statement issued by President Bush said that "Mickey Leland and the other members of his traveling party, both Americans and Ethiopians, were engaged in a noble cause -- trying to feed the hungry." Dellums spoke of his staff aide who lost her life in the crash as "a close personal friend for over a decade" and said that everyone on the plane "shared a common commitment to helping the poor, the starving and the dispossessed in that war-torn, drought-stricken land." "Their deaths are a collective loss to all humanity," Dellums said. Discovery of the crash site ended what had been one of the most extensive American search and rescue operations ever conducted in a Third World country. By Sunday, 18 aircraft, including four American helicopters, two American C-130 airplanes and 12 Ethiopian aircraft, were involved in the search. Three more American helicopters were reported to be en route from Eglin Air Force Base in Florida when word of the discovery came. The search on Sunday was hampered again by thunderstorms, poor visibility and other conditions that characterized many of the previous days of search. "The terrain was fairly rugged and the weather conditions were bad getting there," said Capt. Clair M. Gilk, commander of one of the two helicopters that were the first to spot the wreckage. Gilk said that the crash site, in a mountainous and heavily wooded region, is so remote and inaccessible that the nearest landing site for helicopters is half a mile away, a distance that he said could take as much as three hours to cover on foot. Recovery Planned for Today Air Force personnel were assigned to remain near the site Sunday night to keep it secure. Recovery of the remains of those aboard the plane, a twin-engine Twin Otter, was to commence at first light today. Because of the site's inaccessibility, it could take at least two days to recover all of the bodies, according to Maj. Gen. James F. Record, who came here from Washington to oversee the search effort. Record arrived in Addis Ababa about 10 minutes after the first reports were received of the sighting of the crash site. In Washington, a Pentagon spokesman, Navy Capt. Stan Bloyer, said that the remains of the Americans will probably be returned to the United States through Torrejon Air Base near Madrid, where the American armed forces maintains full mortuary facilities. Dellums to Accompany Bodies Dellums, House Majority Whip William H. Gray III (D-Pa.) and Republican Reps. Bill Emerson of Missouri and Jack Fields of Texas plan to fly to Addis Ababa to accompany the bodies back to the United States. Discovery of the crash site came at about 1:15 p.m. local time Sunday. Ackerman said that the helicopter he was traveling in set down during the morning at an airstrip near the village of Dembi Dolo. There, the crew came upon a Roman Catholic missionary who told them that he had heard reports from local villagers that a plane had been heard nearby last week. Presently, the crew found an Ethiopian surveyor who said he could guide them to an area near where the plane had been heard. The surveyor was taken aboard, crew members said, but on their way toward their destination they spotted the crash site. The location was described as very steep, with the plane resting on land that was pitched at an angle of about 60 degrees. 'Mostly Rocks and Brush' Crew members described the site as "mostly rocks and brush" and indicated that the pilot of Leland's plane may have been trying to escape bad weather on Monday by following the pathway of a river flowing through a valley. Before the plane reached safety, it ran into the mountainside. Rep. Alan Wheat (D-Mo.), who with Ackerman had been flying with search crews for the last two days, said he telephoned House Speaker Thomas S. Foley (D-Wash.) from Addis Ababa soon after the discovery was made. He said that Foley was "heartbroken" at the news. The crash site was described by U.S. authorities as being about 20 nautical miles due east of the town of Gambela and 230 nautical miles west-southwest of Addis Ababa. It appeared to be near the village of Bure.

heavy weather;texas congressman mickey leland;crash site;wreckage;rescue operations;twin-engine twin otter;american helicopters;fugnido refugee camp

LA081490-0030

WILDFIRE CREWS PAY A HEAVY PRICE IN HEALTH

The 80,000 men and women who battle the nation's wildfires have always known their lives were endangered by flames or heat or falling debris. But now, two new studies show they also face an unseen hazard: Their health is under siege from the poisonous stew of gases and soot in wildfire smoke. Among the culprits are carbon monoxide, which slows reaction and impairs judgment; microscopic particles of carbon that lodge in the lungs; aldehydes and acids that irritate air passages, and hydrocarbon-based substances and other chemicals that can damage genes and cause cancer, tests show. Wildland firefighters, whose only protection is the cotton bandanna covering their faces, lose as much as 10% of their lung capacity after one routine season, and the damage persists for weeks, according to the studies by the California Department of Health Services and the Johns Hopkins University School of Hygiene and Public Health in Baltimore. Combined, the researchers tested the lungs of more than 100 California wildland firefighters before and after the 1988 and 1989 fire seasons. Health experts also suspect that exposure to wildfire smoke may accelerate aging, prompt fatal heart attacks or cancer and trigger respiratory diseases such as chronic bronchitis or asthma. "After fires, they cough up black gunk. Then, after a week, they think they're back to normal. But our studies show their lungs aren't back to normal," said Dr. Robert Harrison, the California health department's chief of occupational health surveillance and the physician in charge of one of the studies. "For some of the firefighters, the drop in lung function was rather striking." The worst doses of carbon monoxide and other hazardous chemicals, which can be fatal, are given off when fires smolder, the stage in which firefighters spend most of their time, said Darold Ward, a U.S. Forest Service chemist. Mark Linane, who heads a national firefighting crew known as the Hotshots, said he has seen wildland firefighters so poisoned by carbon monoxide that they can't decide which shoe to tie. The hazards are particularly acute in Southern California, which is prone to more large, smoky fires than anywhere else in the nation. Its four-year drought has turned grasslands tinder dry, and its stagnant weather conditions and topography can trap smoke for days. Furthermore, forestry officials predict that the region's 1990 fire season will be devastating. The Yosemite fires, which have scorched more than 15,000 acres and are still out of control, and the recent Santa Barbara and Glendale fires, which destroyed nearly 500 homes, are only the largest of hundreds of blazes in the state. "We've got lots of summer ahead of us and we've already burned 600 or 700 structures," said Deputy Chief Keith Metcalfe of the state's southern regional firefighting crew in Riverside. " . . . Because of the dryness, fires are burning more rapidly and more intensely." For nearly 10 years, urban firefighters have known that toxic smoke from burning structures and cars greatly increases their chances of cancer and heart disease. The bandannas that once were their only protection were replaced by air tanks and masks long ago. But the U.S. Forest Service and state and county fire officials have been unable to protect their wildfire crews because they know of no gear light enough for firefighters to wear while hiking miles in burning terrain or effective enough to filter out the wide variety of toxic materials in smoke. Furthermore, developing protection for the crews has gotten little attention and virtually no state or federal funding. National fire officials say they cannot get help from Congress unless they can prove firefighters are dropping dead. But because no mortality studies have been funded, all they have is the old joke heard around the fire camp: Just try to find a wildland firefighter still breathing after 60. "It's a crime that we continue to let these guys function like this," said James Johnson, director of hazard control projects at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in Northern California, which is developing respiratory gear for its firefighters. "They're a forgotten group, a hidden subset of people who have been ignored en masse. In all my 18 years of experience in industrial hygiene, I've never seen anything like it.". In the past, firefighters believed their coughing and congestion were fleeting side effects. But the new health studies have documented physiological changes in the lungs and airways that do not vanish with the smoke. The Johns Hopkins tests, conducted on 52 Northern California wildland firefighters during the 1988 season, showed that their lung function -- or flow of oxygen -- remained reduced by as much as 3% even eight weeks after exposure. The researchers said they have not determined if the lungs heal between seasons or if the damage accumulates. The California health department's tests on 63 firefighters showed they lost as much as 10% of their lung capacity during one six-month fire season, with an average loss of 4%. For many firefighters, the lung congestion turns into bronchitis or walking pneumonia three times a year, said Linane, 46, who has fought wildfires for 28 years. "You take antibiotics and it eventually goes away," Linane said. "But then it comes back. And more often." During the four months of fires in 1988 at Yellowstone National Park, 12,000 firefighters sought medical aid for respiratory problems, and about 600 needed a doctor's care after returning home, a U.S. Forest Service report says. Stan Stewart, 37, said he knew when he joined the Forest Service at 17 that the job was dangerous. But he didn't know he would feel sicker and sicker every year. "The doctor told me I look like I've smoked 10 packs of cigarettes a day all my life. But I've never smoked," said Stewart, foreman of the Hotshot crew in Los Padres National Forest near Ojai. "My lungs are probably shot. I'm a little more worried every year." Health researchers, usually reluctant to interfere in policy decisions, said they feel strongly enough about the hazard that they are urging fire officials to provide respiratory protection as soon as possible. "We're not surprised firefighters have decreased lung function. We just wanted to document it so the firefighting agencies would take action," said Dr. John Balmes, a pulmonary specialist and occupational health expert at UC San Francisco who helped with the state's study. Harrison said the forestry agencies and fire departments should at least warn their crews -- and potential recruits -- of the danger and consider rotating shifts more often to reduce smoke exposure. Although the findings of the national studies have not yet been published, word has spread to top officials in the state Forestry Department, who say they are now starting to search for protection for the agency's 3,500 full-time firefighters and about 2,000 seasonal ones.

wildfire smoke;poisonous stew;hazardous chemicals;wildfires;lung function;carbon monoxide;respiratory protection;california wildland firefighters;respiratory diseases;fatal heart attacks;health services;unseen hazard

LA081589-0043

MISSISSIPPI REP. SMITH DIES IN AIR CRASH

Freshman congressman Larkin Smith (R-Miss.) died in a light plane crash in Mississippi, authorities said Monday, making him the second member of the House killed in an aviation accident in a week. The single-engine Cessna 177 crashed Sunday night in thick woods near the tiny community of Janice. Smith and the pilot, Charles Vierling, who also was killed, were flying from Hattiesburg to Gulfport, according to federal and local officials. Searchers combed the heavily wooded DeSoto National Forest through the night but were unable to find the wreckage until Monday morning, when they spotted it from the air. "There was a 300-foot-long path cut by the plane," Harrison County Sheriff's Department Capt. Rick Gaston said in a telephone interview. Smith, 45, died the same day the wreckage of a plane carrying Rep. Mickey Leland (D-Tex.) and 15 others was found on an Ethiopian mountainside. Leland's plane had been missing almost a week after he took off on a fact-finding mission to combat hunger. News of Smith's death was followed by an outpouring of sympathy from Mississippi to Washington, even as Smith's colleagues were still mourning Leland's death. At the White House, spokesman Marlin Fitzwater said President and Mrs. Bush "deeply regret" Smith's death, adding that Smith, who was elected to a seat vacated by Sen. Trent Lott (R-Miss.), "was just beginning a promising career in the Congress." Smith, a former sheriff and police chief, was already developing a reputation on the House Judiciary Committee as a zealous opponent of illegal drugs. "We (the congressional delegation) had come to depend on him in the fight against drugs," said Rep. G. V. (Sonny) Montgomery (D-Miss.) "This is a tremendous loss to his family, his state, and the nation." Smith had thrown out the first ball at the Dixie Youth World Series baseball tournament Sunday and was heading home to Gulfport, taking off at about 9:10 p.m. for the 35-minute flight. Jack Barker, a Federal Aviation Administration spokesman here, said the plane "lost radar contact" at 9:25. He said area residents "heard the airplane crash" and notified officials. Barker said visibility was 4 to 6 miles, and "rain was reported, but not heavy." Lamar Breland told the Associated Press that "my wife was preparing to go to bed, and we heard a plane coming over. I thought at the time it was unusual for a plane to be in the area at night." He said he heard a "revving sound and then a crash." In Miami, Jorge Prellezo, regional director of the National Transportation Safety Board, said a team of investigators had been dispatched to the scene. Investigators generally take months to establish a probable cause of such incidents. The plane belonged to the Institute for Marine Mammal Studies Inc. in Gulfport. The institute immediately issued a statement saying that Smith had requested use of the plane "to accommodate his busy schedule." Jody Canady, a spokeswoman, said Smith was to reimburse the institute. The statement said the plane, manufactured in 1973, and purchased by the institute last year, had a "current inspection." The pilot received his license in 1964 and had a physical examination on June 28, the statement said. Smith was elected last November to represent Mississippi's 5th congressional district. He was Harrison County Sheriff from 1984 to 1989, and was Gulfport police chief from 1977 to 1983. As sheriff, Smith coordinated anti-drug efforts of federal, local and state agencies across five states. Smith, survived by a wife and one child, was lauded by Mississippi Gov. Ray Mabus, who called his death "a tragic loss" for the state and ordered flags on state property flown at half staff. Friends and former associates in Gulfport were stunned and saddened. Gaston, who worked for Smith nine years both in the sheriff's department and earlier when Smith was Gulfport police chief, called Smith "a pillar of strength. He was progressive, and above all, honest. You just never thought something like this would happen." Researcher Edith M. Stanley in Atlanta and staff writer Lori Silver in Washington contributed to this story.

light plane crash;single-engine cessna 177;mississippi;wreckage;freshman congressman larkin smith;aviation accident;airplane crash

LA081890-0039

SWAI HOPES COMEBACK TRAIL INCLUDES VICTORY IN HALF MARATHON

Alphonce Swai, who ran in the 1984 Olympics for Tanzania, but who later fell prey to alcoholism, continues his comeback bid in Sunday's America's Finest City HomeFed Half Marathon. The race is scheduled to begin at 7 a.m. at the Cabrillo Monument atop the Point Loma Peninsula. It will wind its way to the finish line in Balboa Park. Swai began his comeback in late May when he ran the Trib 10K, finishing 16th in 30 minutes 8 seconds. Since then, however, Swai has won two races, the Coronado Half Marathon in July, which he finished in 1:04.50, and the Goodwill Games 10-kilometer run last month in Seattle. The Goodwill Games victory came despite Swai's taking a wrong turn and running 150 yards in another direction before getting back on track. Now Swai, 26, is looking to turn in a 1:02 or 1:03 on Sunday. He insists he'll need that kind of a time to beat a bevy of Mexican and African runners. The runners Swai fears most include: Carlos Ayala of Mexico City, who finished fourth in this year's Grandma's Marathon; Jose Luis Chuela of Mexico, who was second in this race in 1988 (1:03:42); Sam Sitonik of Kenya, who placed fourth in the 1987 America's Finest City Half Marathon at 1:06:01; and Sammy Rotich, a Kenyan who ran a personal best 1:01:55 in 1987. The women's field is led by Kim Jones of Spokane, Wash. Track & Field News ranked Jones third among women marathoners in 1989 and first among U.S. competitors. Jones, 32, finished the 1989 New York City Marathon second to Ingrid Kristiansen of Norway with a personal-best time of 2:27.54. Also in 1989, Jones won the Twin Cities Marathon, placed second in Houston and third in Boston. She will be challenged by Janine Aiello of Toas, N.M., who placed second in this year's San Francisco Marathon; Lynn DeNinnof of St. Louis, who won a gold medal in the 10 kilometer at the 1990 TAC championships; and Kathryn Evans of Fort Collins, Colo., winner of the 1990 Nebraska Half Marathon. The course is considered by runners to be a difficult one -- so difficult, in fact, that most elite runners who train in San Diego stay away from the race. "It is a challenging course," Swai said. "The runner who is smart and thinks through it will be the one who is going to win. You can't just go out and run hard on this course."

challenging course;homefed half marathon;alphonce swai;runners;comeback bid;race

LA091889-0088

THIRD WORLD'S MASSIVE DEBT GROWING WORSE; WORLD BANK REPORT SAYS ECONOMIC GROWTH MIXED

Third World debtors had to pay $50.1 billion more to service their debts to the United States and other creditors last year than they received in new loans -- a major drain on their already cash-strapped economies -- the World Bank reported Sunday. The figure, contained in the bank's annual report and made public before its annual meeting here Sept. 23, was almost a third larger than in 1987, when the net pay-back totaled $38.3 billion. The cash drain has been growing steadily since 1984, when it was $10.2 billion. The bank also reported that, despite the relatively buoyant economic growth in most industrial countries, developing countries turned in a decidedly mixed performance, ranging from a mini-boom in Southeast Asian economies to further impoverishment in Africa. The bank said that it plans to increase its own commitments for new loans to Third World countries to about $16.4 billion in the current fiscal year, up from $14.8 billion in fiscal 1988. However, actual disbursements of loan money are expected to remain at about $11 billion. The figures on the cash drain showed that these "net resource transfers," as the bank parlance terms them, are mushrooming rapidly -- a measure of the mounting strain that the global debt burden is placing on Third World economies. Sunday's total is approximately $7 billion higher than a preliminary estimate of $43 billion for 1988 that the bank published last December. "The situation in the Third World is getting worse, not better," a bank official said. A bank spokesman said that part of the reason that the figure is so bloated is that some countries, such as cash-rich South Korea, are paying off their debts early. And the new U.S. plan to help countries reduce their debts is expected to trim the total some. Still, the figure is massive by any measure. The total debt burden of Third World countries currently is estimated at about $993 billion. The debt service for this total -- that is, the payments to cover interest and principal -- amounts to about $143 billion a year. The bank gave a variety of reasons for the disparity in growth rates among developing countries. In general, however, it said that countries whose governments follow sensible economic policies, such as in East Asia, have attracted heavy new investment and have performed well. But others, such as those in Latin America, the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa, that are heavily state-owned economies and consume more than they produce, have not. In particular, investment has lagged in these countries as residents have sent their capital abroad. The bank said the continuing deterioration in the debt situation underscores the need for further efforts by the industrial countries to help Third World governments pare back their debt -- a major aim of the U.S. plan offered by Treasury Secretary Nicholas F. Brady. Drain Began in 1984 However, efforts under the Brady plan are going relatively slowly, and World Bank officials cautioned that the results may not show up for at least two or three more years. Some critics believe that the plan -- designed to let debtors swap debt for securities -- may have limited use. The net cash drain from the debtor countries to the richer ones began in 1984. Until then, the richer countries had provided more in new loans to Third World nations than those countries paid back. World Bank officials said the outflows are likely to prompt the institution to intensify its emphasis on programs that are designed to alleviate poverty, not just speed development. The bank also intends to step up lending for environmental projects.

cash-strapped economies;third world countries;third world debtors;creditors;global debt burden;new loans;cash drain

LA092189-0123

BOMB SUSPECTED IN CRASH OF FRENCH PLANE IN AFRICA

A French DC-10 jetliner with 171 people aboard experienced a powerful high-altitude explosion, possibly from a terrorist bomb, before crashing in a remote desert region of Niger in northern Africa, officials in France said Wednesday. In Washington, intelligence specialists said they believe that the jetliner may have been bombed by people seeking to retaliate against France for its recent actions in Lebanon. For several months, France has played an active part in the Lebanon crisis, attempting to broker a settlement between Christian and pro-Syrian forces. Late last month, the French government sent a naval task force of five warships into Lebanese waters as part of what President Francois Mitterrand called a "rescue mission" for several thousand French nationals living in the war-torn country. But the action was widely perceived as an attempt to provide protection and support for Maj. Gen. Michel Aoun and his Maronite Christian forces against Syrian troops and Muslim militias in Lebanon. Ever since, one intelligence official said Wednesday, the French government has realized that its planes were being targeted for some sort of terrorist attack. The DC-10 operated by the French airline UTA crashed Tuesday after taking off from N'Djamena, Chad, on a flight that originated in Brazzaville, Congo. French military helicopter crews who visited the crash site in the desolate reaches of the Sahara Desert late Wednesday afternoon found no survivors. Included among the presumed dead was the wife of the American ambassador to Chad. On Wednesday, Michel Friess, a spokesman for UTA, said that "the wide surface over which the debris of the airplane has been found suggests a high-altitude explosion that leads one to think of a criminal attack." Anonymous callers to the airline office in Paris and to a Western news agency in London claimed responsibility for the crash on behalf of the Shiite Muslim terrorist organization Islamic Jihad. The London caller linked the attack to the seizure of a Shiite cleric, Sheik Abdel Karim Obeid, by Israeli forces in southern Lebanon on July 28. Saying he was reading a statement from Islamic Jihad, the London caller declared: "We are proud of this action, which was very successful. We would like to say the French are warned not to exchange information regarding Sheik Obeid with the Israelis no more. We demand the freedom of Sheik Obeid, and otherwise we will refresh the memories of the bombings in Paris of '85 and '86. Long live the Islamic Republic of Iran." However, the message made little sense in the context of France's limited role in the Obeid matter. A more likely possibility, speculated terrorist experts and one intelligence source in Washington, was a terrorist attack on behalf of pro-Syrian Muslim forces in Lebanon. The French Foreign Ministry declined to comment Wednesday about the possibility of a terrorist attack. "The pieces are widely scattered, so it didn't crash on impact," a Foreign Ministry spokesman said. Air controllers lost contact with UTA Flight 772 less than an hour after it took off from N'Djamena. The sudden loss of contact was another explanation given by the French airline authorities supporting the theory of a terrorist explosion. "If there had been a very serious problem on board, other than an explosion or the sudden disintegration of the airplane," said UTA spokesman Friess, "there would have been at least several seconds or minutes for the crew to re-establish contact." UTA officials insisted that the DC-10 was in good working condition, having completed 60,000 hours of flying time on 14,700 flights in 16 years of service. Since it was formed in 1949, UTA, which specializes in African and Pacific routes, had never experienced a crash during a commercial flight. However, in 1984 a UTA DC-8 aircraft flying the same route was damaged by a bomb explosion before takeoff at the N'Djamena airport. Twenty-five people on board were injured in that attack, which the Chadian government blamed on Libya. Chad-Libyan relations have recently normalized after a 10-year guerrilla war. At the White House, Press Secretary Marlin Fitzwater said the U.S. government's information on Tuesday's disaster was limited. "We can't at this time state for a fact that (the plane) was blown up, but it does have those appearances," he said. In Santa Monica, a RAND Corp. analyst, Bruce Hoffman, said Wednesday he believed the attack was probably staged by Shiite Muslim groups concerned that France might intervene in Lebanon on behalf of the Maronite Christians led by Aoun. "It seems to me that there's a much stronger Middle Eastern context than an African context," Hoffman said. "It could be that the Maronites' opponents in general were determined to deliver some sort of a knockout blow in Lebanon, and (it) was designed as a warning to make the French think twice. "This would send a pretty clear message to France that they ought to back away," Hoffman added. He noted that by the end of August, "all the main Shiite players in Lebanon had threatened some sort of retribution against France." Threats by Militants On Aug. 20, the Revolutionary Justice Organization threatened to "strike deep into the heart of French territory." Three days later, Hezbollah threatened to stage suicide attacks against French targets. On Aug. 25, a previously unknown group, the Organization in Defense of the Oppressed, threatened to strike "at French interests everywhere." An Air France flight on Aug. 28 was delayed for more than five hours before taking off from Dulles International Airport in Washington when security officials received a last-minute bomb threat. According to one well-informed intelligence official, both French and American officials took that threat seriously and searched all the luggage on the plane before allowing it to depart. While France's willingness to bargain with terrorists for the freedom of hostages had in the past created a modus vivendi that appeared to spare the country from violent attacks, Hoffman and other analysts suggested that the stakes in Lebanon had become too important for those old rules to apply. "In these people's eyes, we're really talking about Lebanon's future. That wrenches the entire struggle in Lebanon onto a higher plateau," Hoffman said. "The last battle for Beirut has yet to be fought." "If it's not the beginning of the end of things there, it's certainly the opening of a new wave of conflicts there," agreed another analyst, Jim Blackwell of Georgetown University's Center for Strategic and International Studies. Another analyst at the center, Robert Kupperman, discounted the possibility that a small terrorist group alone could have been responsible for the airborne bombing. "When someone puts a bomb on the plane, it normally takes the resources of a state, at least to set it up," Kupperman said. Apart from Syrian-backed Lebanese forces, Kupperman suggested that Libya and Iran also could have been motivated to stage such an attack. According to intelligence specialists, security at the airport in Chad at which the plane stopped is under the control of French officials. However, the French do not control airport security in Brazzaville, the city from which the plane took off.

niger;rescue mission;crash site;terrorist attack;french dc-10 jetliner;powerful high-altitude explosion;lebanon crisis;terrorist bomb

LA092490-0095

END OF HIS BAN ONLY STARTS THE QUESTIONS; TRACK AND FIELD: MARKETABILITY OF BEN JOHNSON AFTER SUSPENSION FOR STEROID USE POSES A GAMBLE FOR PROMOTERS.

It was a scene that recalled the golden days for Ben Johnson. Almost. The media were there, as before, chronicling a news conference. Johnson was as before, shy and yet brimming with confidence. There was the bluster, the bragging, the promise of big things to come. This scene, which played out two weeks ago in Italy, was familiar, with one exception. The new element was the pervasive skepticism that now attends Johnson's boasts. Overweening confidence among world class athletes is well accepted -- even expected. However, part of the expectation includes the understanding that the athlete can back up the boasts. Johnson will at last get his chance to do that. It has been two years since Johnson, then world record-holder at 100 meters, was stripped of his gold medal after testing positive for anabolic steroids at the Seoul Olympics. Johnson was also suspended from competition for two years; that suspension ends today. And so the questions begin: What can Johnson do when not assisted by performance-enhancing drugs? "Once he returns to the sport, and if he returns a winner, all is forgiven," said Paul Gaines, assistant meet director for the Hamilton Spectator Indoor Games, the Canadian meet to be held Jan. 11 that will mark Johnson's return to competition. "I think that is the attitude the public will display. You hear grumblings among media types and in some circles of the sport, but you have to give the guy the benefit of the doubt. "When this happened, it was a bitter disappointment for everyone in the sport to acknowledge that the No. 1 athlete in the sport was using drugs. With the accolades cast upon him in the previous years, people were resentful. With the humility and shame that has been reflected on him, people tend to be more open minded about it. They hope the guy comes back clean and fast." Clean and fast. To some in track and field that represents a contradiction in terms. It is this apparent contradiction that Ben Johnson must overcome in his comeback. Charlie Francis, who coached Johnson for 12 years, estimated that steroids made Johnson faster by one meter. How much ground will Johnson lose as a drug-free sprinter? Johnson, speaking at a news conference in Castelfranco Veneto, Italy, expressed little doubt he can regain his form of 1988. "I want to take back the titles and the records I have been deprived of," the Associated Press quoted Johnson as saying. "I have been training very hard recently. I am at 90% right now. By strengthening training, I will be 100% by January. I have decided to start again to show everybody I'm still the best. I'm convinced I can set a new world record." BIG MONEY Promoters of indoor meets this season doubt that Johnson will regain his records, but they hope that fans will turn out in huge numbers to watch him try. Indeed, in a season that holds the promise of high performance levels in general (as athletes peak for the world indoor championships in Seville, Spain, in March), Johnson's return to competition might help rejuvenate a sport in need of public interest. Al Franken, promoter of the Sunkist Invitational, is close to signing Johnson for his Jan. 18 meet, saying Johnson will receive the highest appearance fee Franken has ever paid -- $30,000, compared to the $23,000 Franken paid Carl Lewis. And there is a bonus in the contract that rewards Johnson for high attendance figures. "I think honestly, you have to figure that a lot of it is curiosity," Franken said. "You'll get people who don't care about track, and you may attract back people who have quit coming to track. We need a push in the sport. It's been struggling. We need a hype. Someone who is a ticket seller. Ben sort of transcends the sport, and, God knows, we need someone to transcend the sport." Transcendent is the word for the appearence fees Johnson will reportedly earn. His value in Europe and Japan has not waned. He will be paid $60,000 for a meet in Stockholm. But American meet directors say they can't pay that kind of money, especially for an unproven runner. "If he's eligible to compete, to me, Ben Johnson is an attraction," said Ray Lumpp, meet director for the indoor meet at the Meadowlands in East Rutherford, N.J.. "I'd like to have Ben Johnson regardless of how he runs. But how well he's running will determine his value. That's the key. Whether he is worth as much after six meets, I don't know. You're only as good as your last race, and the fans know that." Howard Schmertz of the Millrose Games in New York has an interest in Johnson, but perhaps not the budget. "There is a lot of interest in seeing whether this fellow is a truly great runner or if he is what Carl Lewis said he is, a fair runner who got there by taking drugs," Schmertz said. "I have no way of knowing. As far as the money, I expect a lot of big stars and I'm going to have a lot of problems giving out (big appearence fees). If you give him $10,000 and people are beating him, you could have problems." Already the backlash has begun. There is talk of informal athlete boycotts in Canada, where indoor meets often provide car fare and little else to star athletes. Johnson reportedly will be paid $10,000 (Canadian) for the meet in Hamilton, a figure that has caused some jealousy among his peers. Lumpp, who traditionally has one of the largest budgets in North America, said resentment is a problem faced every season by meet directors. "How many heavy hitters can a meet afford?" he said. "There are very few secrets among athletes, especially when there's X dollars given to one athlete." Hamilton promoter Gaines has heard it before, and makes no apology for paying Johnson more than other athletes. "My answer to that is 'Who puts (fans) in the seats? Right now, I can't think of anybody who would arouse as much interest as Ben Johnson." It would be ironic if Johnson becomes the star who revitalizes indoor track and field after being blamed for the steady decline of sponsor interest in outdoor track. "There has been damage to the sport and people want to blame Ben personally for that damage," Gaines said. "We are very cognizant of the fact that people are looking upon his return with something like skepticism and animosity. To what extent, we don't know." Some meet directors report concern that longtime sponsors will be reluctant to be associated with a meet that has Johnson as its marquee athlete, given Johnson's former association with anabolic steroids. Franken said he had meetings with his sponsor, Sunkist, to discuss the possible image problem.

drug tests;news conference;hamilton spectator indoor games;suspension;expectation;ben johnson;seoul olympics;performance-enhancing drugs;world record-holder;anabolic steroids

LA092790-0010

PERSPECTIVES ON TERM LIMITATIONS; . . . NO, IT'LL SHIFT POWER TO THE UNELECTED; SURE, VOTERS ARE ANGRY. BUT INTEREST GROUPS WITH THEIR OWN AGENDAS ARE FUNNELING THE ANGER TO THEIR OWN BENEFIT.

Proposals to limit the terms of members of Congress and of state legislators are popular and getting more so, according to the pundits and the polls. Students of government like me find it hard to understand why. Contrary to most of the propaganda on the subject, these constitutional changes won't do what their proponents say they want to accomplish. For example, term limitations will not decrease the influence of interest groups and their money on elections. Quite the contrary. Forcing senior members of a legislature to retire means that the new candidates who try to take their place will have to invest heavily in achieving the name recognition that the veterans already have. This will require large new infusions of money and electoral alliances with interest groups who can supply it. Veteran members -- proven vote-getters -- are much more powerful in relation to special interests than candidates who have to prove themselves in an uncertain and expensive campaign environment. Term limitations won't improve the functioning of the legislature, either. People need time to learn their jobs. Term limitations throw away the benefits of learning from experience. Inexperienced legislators are less powerful in relation to legislative staff, executive branch bureaucrats and interest-group lobbyists from whom they must learn the customs and routines of legislative operations and the stories behind policy proposals. New people in any complex institution are highly dependent on the people around them. Term limitations just shift power from elected officials to the relatively inaccessible officials, bureaucrats and influence peddlers who surround them. Why do we assume that new blood is automatically better than old? Of course we should pay attention to the quality of our legislators and vote against those whose performance we find wanting. Term limits merely guarantee that the good will disappear along with the bad. Finally, term limitations won't enhance representative democracy. Just the opposite, since they create an artificial barrier preventing voters from returning to office legislators they might otherwise favor. Why are we so certain that voters have such terrible judgment that they need a constitutional restriction keeping them from voting for incumbents they know and like? It is hard to see how restricting voters' alternatives in this arbitrary way can be proposed in the name of representative government or of democracy. One must conclude that other forces are at work. More likely, groups and interests that now have a hard time winning against incumbents are seeking term limitations to improve their chances of winning office. They are undoubtedly calculating that non-incumbents are easier to beat, or buy. They're probably right about that.

electoral alliances;term limitations;constitutional changes;term limits;state legislators;representative democracy;interest groups;constitutional restriction

LA093089-0076

SENATE VOTES TO BAR COUNTING OF ILLEGAL ALIENS IN CENSUS

In a blow to California and other states with large immigrant populations, the Senate voted Friday to bar the Census Bureau from counting illegal aliens in the 1990 population count. The action came on a voice vote, despite arguments from the Bush Administration and other opponents that it is both unconstitutional and unworkable. Just before the voice vote, the senators voted, 50 to 41, against killing the proposal to bar aliens from the count. A Senate-House conference committee will decide whether the prohibition against including illegal immigrants in the census totals will be retained or dropped from a $17.4-billion appropriations bill for the State, Justice and Commerce departments. Even if the prohibition survives, Secretary of Commerce Robert A. Mosbacher has said that he would ask President Bush to veto any bill that comes to his desk with such a provision. At stake are the number of seats in Congress for California, Florida, New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania and other states that will be reapportioned on the basis of next year's census. Federal aid to states also is frequently based on population counts, so millions of dollars in grants and other funds made available on a per capita basis would be affected. The issue cuts across partisan lines in the Senate, with Minority Leader Bob Dole (R-Kan.) arguing against the White House position on grounds that including illegal aliens in the census is unfair to American citizens. Loss of Seats Cited "Some states will lose congressional seats because of illegal aliens," Dole argued. Sen. Thad Cochran (R-Miss.) said that Georgia and Indiana both lost House seats after the 1980 Census, and California and New York -- centers of illegal immigration -- each gained seats. "The bottom line is illegal aliens ought to be deported, not counted," Cochran said. Sen. Pete Wilson (R-Calif.) countered that excluding illegal residents from the decennial census is unfair to the states that have suffered from a huge influx of immigration beyond the legal limits. "There are enormous additional costs for states who have had a surge of population," Wilson said, adding that those states should receive additional federal aid to cope with the added problems. Opponents of a ban on counting illegal aliens said that a ban is impractical because the Census Bureau already has printed questionnaires that do not contain any question about legality of residence. For 190 years, said Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan (D-N.Y.), the federal government has counted all inhabitants without regard to citizenship in accordance with the Constitution's provisions. "Fiddling with the numbers" now will destroy confidence in the census results, he added. The Senate's action was sharply criticized by Undersecretary of Commerce Michael Darby, but he voiced hope that it would be reversed by a Senate-House conference. "There really is a widespread realization that this would not only be unconstitutional but literally impossible," Darby said. But he added that he is "optimistic, cautiously optimistic," that House conferees would resist the Senate-approved ban and not force Bush to veto the legislation. Mario Moreno, head of the Mexican American Legal Defense Fund, said he was shocked by the Senate's decision. "It is going to have a dramatic and disastrous impact in the Hispanic community," Moreno said. "People are going to be discouraged from participating." A Census Bureau spokesman took a more dispassionate view, however. "Our position is that we count everybody at their place of residence," said bureau spokesman James Gorman. "If Congress passes a law that says we will or will not count people, we will do what it says."

prohibition;voice vote;congressional seats;illegal immigrants;federal aid;census bureau;appropriations bill;house seats;illegal aliens;1990 population count

LA093089-0126

SENATE VOTES TO PROHIBIT COUNTING OF ILLEGAL ALIENS IN CENSUS

In a blow to California and other states with large immigrant populations, the Senate voted Friday to bar the Census Bureau from counting illegal aliens in the 1990 population count. "I'm stunned," said Santa Ana City Council member Miguel A. Pulido. Pulido and other Santa Ana council members say that the 1980 census substantially under-counted its population at 215,000. The city has been lobbying hard to have its illegal alien population -- estimated at 50,000 -- included in the 1990 count. The Senate's action came on a voice vote, despite arguments from the Bush Administration and other opponents that it is both unconstitutional and unworkable. Just before the voice vote, the senators voted, 50 to 41, against killing the proposal to bar aliens from the count. A Senate-House conference committee will decide whether the prohibition against including illegal immigrants in the census totals will be retained or dropped from a $17.4-billion appropriations bill for the State, Justice and Commerce departments. Would Urge Veto Even if the prohibition survives, Secretary of Commerce Robert A. Mosbacher has said that he would ask President Bush to veto any bill that comes to his desk with such a provision. At stake are the number of seats in Congress for California, Florida, New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania and other states that will be reapportioned on the basis of next year's census. Federal aid to states also is frequently based on population counts, so millions of dollars in grants and other funds made available on a per capita basis would be affected. State officials have said California could lose up to $300 million in federal aid if illegal aliens were uncounted. Santa Ana has estimated its potential loss at $2 million a year. In addition, Pulido and county advocates for poor Latino residents expressed concern that the decision would promote fear and intimidation in the community. In 1985, before the federal immigration reform act, the number of illegal aliens in Orange County was estimated at 229,000, ranking it just behind Los Angeles County in California, a county official said. There are no current estimates. "For example, we have close to 50,000 people in the city that have qualified through the amnesty process for legal residency," Pulido said. "Those individuals, when asked or challenged about their status, can be legitimately concerned. I think the census's attempt to question them could be misconstrued as an attempt by the immigration service to get information." Councilman John Acosta said he "was saddened" by the Senate's action because the city was determined "to count every single person, and I know that (now) we're going to to suffer from this monetarily." But Pulido said he believes the House of Representatives will not allow the prohibition to survive, especially since it killed an earlier, similar effort. The issue cuts across partisan lines in the Senate, with Minority Leader Bob Dole (R-Kan.) arguing against the White House position on grounds that including illegal aliens in the census is unfair to American citizens. Loss of Seats Cited "Some states will lose congressional seats because of illegal aliens," Dole argued. Sen. Thad Cochran (R-Miss.) said that Georgia and Indiana both lost House seats after the 1980 Census, and that California and New York -- centers of illegal immigration -- each gained seats. "The bottom line is illegal aliens ought to be deported, not counted," Cochran said. Sen. Pete Wilson (R-Calif.) countered that excluding illegal residents from the decennial census is unfair to the states that have suffered from a huge influx of immigration beyond the legal limits. "There are enormous additional costs for states who have had a surge of population," Wilson said, adding that those states should receive additional federal aid to cope with the added problems. The Senate's action would also have an impact on smaller California cities without substantial Latino populations because census population figures play an important role in Community Development Block Grant formulas, said Don Vestal, Westminster city planner. Westminster is following a recommendation by the Census Bureau to form a Complete Count Committee of officials and community leaders to help ensure cooperation from all city residents. "We feel that it's in our best interest to get as complete a count as we can," he said. The Community Development Block Grant formula, among other things, Vestal said, includes use of income figures and percentage of lower income residents in the city. "In addition to just counting heads, they're getting economic information of the city that will affect us in the future," he added. Gloria McDonough, director of Abrazar Center, an elderly-assistance center for Latinos in Westminster, said the senators' action shows they have no understanding of the impact of illegal immigration to California communities. "Whether you count them or not, the undocumented residents are still going to impact federal dollars in our community. And whether we like it or not they're here and here to stay," McDonough said. In recent weeks, representatives from the census office in Santa Ana have visited such social centers as Abrazar and others and told center staff people that they intend to count "everyone, regardless of where they came from," McDonough said. "Their big thing was, 'We do not care about the origins of where these people are from, but, more importantly, their impact to local economies,' " she said. When asked to comment, census officials in Santa Ana referred media inquiries to the regional office in Van Nuys. Adrian Dove, assistant regional director for the U.S. Census in charge of outreach, said that despite the Senate's decision, the census bureau "really doesn't know how to go about finding who was legal or illegal." "But we have a mandate to follow that law, and we would have to find out," he said. Opponents of a ban on counting illegal aliens said that a ban is impractical because the Census Bureau has already printed questionnaires that do not contain any question about legality of residence. For 190 years, said Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan (D-N.Y.), the federal government has counted all inhabitants without regard to citizenship in accordance with the Constitution's provisions. "Fiddling with the numbers" now will destroy confidence in the census results, he added. The Senate's action was sharply criticized by Undersecretary of Commerce Michael Darby, but he voiced hope that it would be reversed by a Senate-House conference. "There really is a widespread realization that this would not only be unconstitutional but literally impossible," Darby said. But he added that he is "optimistic, cautiously optimistic," that House conferees would resist the Senate-approved ban and not force Bush to veto the legislation. Mario Moreno, head of the Mexican American Legal Defense Fund, said he was shocked by the Senate's decision. "It is going to have a dramatic and disastrous impact in the Hispanic community," Moreno said. "People are going to be discouraged from participating." A Census Bureau spokesman took a more dispassionate view, however. "Our position is that we count everybody at their place of residence," said bureau spokesman James Gorman. "If Congress passes a law that says we will or will not count people, we will do what it says."

federal aid;voice vote;congressional seats;illegal immigrants;census bureau;senators;appropriations bill;house seats;illegal aliens;large immigrant populations;1990 population count

LA100789-0007

INTERPRETING 2ND AMENDMENT: RESTRICTING GUN OWNERSHIP

This is not an argument regarding the merits of gun control laws. Second Amendment states (1791): "A well regulated militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed." As often happens in law, a simple English sentence may have legal significance which determines the application of the words. The Second Amendment was, as was the rest of the first 10 amendments (the Bill of Rights), insisted upon by some of the states for their own protection from the federal government. The Second Amendment stated one of the subjects about which the federal government was prohibited from making any laws. The word "people" as used in constitutional law is used collectively and refers to a political entity, such as a state, and does not mean "persons" or individuals. An early ruling in 1875 in U.S. vs. Cruikshank established the view of the U.S. Supreme Court, upheld in cases in 1886, 1894 and 1939. The court in Cruikshank said that the Second Amendment did not create a federally protected right of individuals but was an express limitation on the powers of the national (federal) government. There have been lower federal court decisions regarding the Second Amendment, all supportive of this established principle. The status of the Second Amendment as a constitutional issue is and has been for nearly 200 years: 1) A restriction on the power of the federal government to limit or deny the states the right to have state militia. 2) Not a federally protected right of individuals. There is no national document controlling the states with regard to arms. The states may regulate arms within their borders. WILLIAM NEALY Studio City

constitutional law;second amendment;gun control laws;arms;federal government;security

LA101090-0017

PERSPECTIVE ON TERM LIMITATIONS; THE CONSEQUENCES OF TINKERING; VOTERS MAY FIND THAT THIS PROPOSAL IS AKIN TO BURNING DOWN THE HOUSE JUST TO GET RIDOF THE RATS.

There is a recurring temptation in American politics to wreak vengeance on one's adversaries by overhauling the political institutions that they dominate. What usually results from this ill-considered radical surgery is that the very people who scheduled the operations end up in the recovery room. Franklin D. Roosevelt's plan to expand the Supreme Court in 1937 to dilute the votes of conservatives resulted in the creation of an opposing political coalition that lived on after the controversy to plague every subsequent Democratic President. The Republicans in 1951 wanted to ensure that there would never be another F.D.R., so they pushed through the 22nd Amendment limiting presidents to two terms. The first President to come under the restriction was Dwight D. Eisenhower, a Republican who might very well have won a third term. The latest institutional patients to be wheeled into the shock-trauma unit are the state legislatures. The quack therapy being performed on them is the imposition of limits on the number of terms that state lawmakers can serve. The first cut took place on Sept. 18, when Oklahoma voters endorsed overwhelmingly a ballot initiative limiting state lawmakers to 12 years' service. By itself, the term limitation in Oklahoma might be written off as a cranky act of vengeance in a state not renowned as a political trend-setter, but similar measures will be voted on in November in California and Colorado. Eager for straws in the wind in an otherwise trendless political year, some journalists have seen in the Oklahoma vote a backlash against incumbents, a manifestation of public alienation and an ominous sign to the Democrats, the party that holds the largest number of legislative seats. The Oklahoma referendum is none of these. It is, rather, the kind of minor political tempest that gets highlighted briefly by the media, is copied in a few places and then disappears. It is Republicans, naturally enough, who seem to be the most enthusiastic puffers of term limitation, since they have the most to gain, at least in the short term, from an indiscriminate clean-out of the nation's deliberative bodies. What makes term limitation such a singularly inappropriate tool is the almost total lack of connection between the fancied sins of the lawmakers and the discipline proposed. The very weakness and vulnerability to corruption that have often plagued state legislatures usually result from the amateurism of lawmakers -- the quality that term-limitation backers now assert as a virtue. Where state legislators are underpaid, have no professional staffs and meet rarely, they usually come under the sway of full-time governors, executive-branch bureaucrats and highly paid lobbyists. Indeed, the goal of legislative reformers for the past 50 years has been more professionalism in the state assemblies, not less. By turning out the legislators every 12 years -- or even worse, every six years -- you pretty much guarantee that those who are elected won't have much of a stake in their jobs. They will use them as temporary hitching posts on their way to other offices without term limitations. Not every state lawmaker has his eye on a seat in the U.S. Senate or House of Representatives. But it's a safe bet that more people will be using state seats to groom for higher office if they know that the law will force them out soon. Lobbyists, of course, will rejoice. Their influence over these legislative birds of passage will grow because they will be guaranteed a perennial crop of callow and ignorant lawmakers. One thing that legislators now have going for them is that they can become conversant with public issues and so challenge, if they care to, the self-serving propaganda of the special interests. Celebrating, along with the lobbyists, will be the legislative staffs whose tenure would be unaffected. These unelected officials are permanent and beyond the reach of voters, while the very people who are in some measure accountable will be hustled out of office. Ultimately, what the term limit amounts to is an indictment of citizenship. It is an admission that the voters are civic imbeciles who cannot discriminate between bad lawmakers and good ones. Where surgical strikes are needed to eliminate the incompetent or corrupt, the term limitation uses carpet bombing in the hope that in the resulting carnage, some of the guilty will suffer along with the innocent. At the most basic level, term limitation is just flat-out wrongheaded and illogical: To throw everybody out when all you want to do is throw out the rascals is like burning down your house in order to get rid of the rats.

american politics;state lawmakers;opposing political coalition;term limitations;state legislatures;political institutions;legislative reformers;term-limitation backers

LA101289-0194

SILENT KILLER: ONE IN EIGHT LATINOS HIT BY DISEASE

Consuelo wishes she could share her First Communion this year with Abuelita. She misses her grandmother very much. Abuelita was not very old -- just 62 -- but there was not much the doctors could do to save her life. She had uncontrolled diabetes: her kidneys were failing, her blood pressure was too high and she finally died of a heart attack. Consuelo and Abuelita aren't actual people, but their story nevertheless is played over and over again among the more than 3 million Latinos in the Los Angeles metropolitan area, health officials say. The reason is diabetes, a silent killer that afflicts one in eight Latino adults. This rate is higher than that of any ethnic group except for American Indians. Nationwide, it is estimated that there are more than 2 million Latinos who already have diabetes, many of them undiagnosed. That is why the American Diabetes Assn. and other health education groups in the Los Angeles area and California have begun a major push to educate Latinos about diabetes. The effort is being aided by interested physicians and by drug companies, which make insulin and other drugs used for diabetes that can't be controlled by changes in eating habits. Like heart disease, the adult-onset diabetes most common among Latinos is a condition that can be largely prevented with proper diet and exercise, doctors say. Being 20% or more overweight is one of the major diabetes risk factors. "We need to get into the communities and start teaching the kids and the adolescents and the parents to make some changes in their habits," said Dr. Jaime Davidson, a Dallas physician who has spearheaded the diabetes association's Latino education efforts. "Many people think that when Latinos come here (to the United States) they gain weight because they continue to eat the way they ate at home. But in fact, they change," Davidson said. "What happens is, fast foods are readily available . . . and they are higher in fat and calories. And at home they didn't have a car, and here instead of walking we take the car to go one block. "That ends in having more obesity. If you have already a predisposed group of people, such as the Latinos, you get more obesity and you get more diabetes." With funding from Upjohn Co., the Los Angeles chapter of the American Diabetes Assn. sponsored a diabetes health fair at Olvera Street Plaza on Aug. 26. Of 3,000 who attended the fair, 1,000 underwent tests for diabetes. More of this kind of effort and wider education among the public and physicians can be expected in the future, said Janet Matkin, of the association's California affiliate. Diabetes is a defect in the body's system for using sugar in the blood. It results from the body's failure to make insulin or, some studies indicate, from its inability to use insulin that is available. Latinos are more than twice as likely to get diabetes than are Anglos, and incidence of the disease increases with age. In one survey done in San Antonio, a third of the Latinos between the ages of 55 and 65 had diabetes, Davidson said. Latinos' higher susceptibility is thought to result from a combination of both heredity and diet. Similarly, American Indians have the highest diabetes incidence of any ethnic group in the United States. Genetically controlled defects in the body's insulin system are also thought to exist both for them and Latinos. In addition, Latino diets can be rich in high-calorie fried foods that promote obesity and increase the chance of getting diabetes. Diabetes that begins in childhood requires daily insulin injections. Most commonly in Latinos, however, diabetes takes the form called Type II, which first appears in adulthood and often can be controlled with proper diet and exercise. The disease tends to show up in the late 20s and early 30s among Latinos, a decade earlier than it does in Anglos, Davidson said. But, because it progresses slowly, Type II diabetes can go undiagnosed for years, allowing complications such as kidney failure, heart disease, blindness and the need for amputation of a foot or toe. Latinos, who often have less access to regular health care than Anglos, are more likely to go undiagnosed, Matkin said. The new educational efforts to change that picture are necessary, not only because they help individuals stay healthy but also because the nation's health care funding crisis will only get worse if the problem is not reduced, Davidson said. "We are facing a problem that is going to grow, maybe at epidemic proportions," Davidson said. "In some states like California or Texas, if nothing is done we're going to pay so much money for health care for people of Latino origin that it may become prohibitive." The number of Latino diabetics in the United States will nearly quadruple by the year 2000 to 8 million, according to projections by Eli Lilly Co. Caring for them will cost more than $10 billion a year, even if the disease has no complications, the company projects. Yet life-style changes today to cut down on obesity can prevent many of those cases from ever occurring, health officials say. That means adapting an Anglo-oriented health education network to the needs of a diverse Latino community that has a different social structure, health beliefs and eating habits from the majority culture. For instance, the fact that Type II diabetes frequently shows up in women during or shortly after pregnancy gives health educators an ideal chance to influence an entire Latino family's eating habits, said Dr. Martin Montoro, co-director of the diabetes and pregnancy service at Los Angeles County-USC Medical Center. Any Latino woman whose child was born at 9 pounds or larger should consider herself at risk of diabetes and alter her diet, Davidson said. Recent immigrants and even some longtime U.S. residents are not likely to want to switch completely away from a diet reliant on beans, tortillas and other carbohydrates, Montoro noted, but modifications can be made easily. One of the most important is to cut down on fat in the diet by eliminating fried foods -- for instance, by not frying tortillas for tacos or enchiladas. Other barriers to Latinos getting care for diabetes are more subtle, doctors interested in the issue say. Chief among these is that the Latino patient is less likely to volunteer information or to notice early diabetes symptoms than the Anglo patient, said Dr. Aliza Lifshitz, a board member of the California Hispanic American Medical Assn. Any physician practicing in Southern California needs to be aware of that and to learn to ask more diabetes-related questions of their Latino patients, Lifshitz said. Davidson said he is confident that Latinos will respond to education efforts on diabetes. He pointed to the recent indications that Americans' risk of heart disease is lowering as examples of how educational programs can work. "I think that if we give them the opportunity and the tools that Latinos are no different than anybody else," Davidson said. "We need to give them the opportunity to enter the health care system, and we need to give them the opportunity to learn that diabetes is the biggest health care issue that they are going to face into the year 2000."

education efforts;adult-onset diabetes;american diabetes assn.;latino diabetics;major diabetes risk factors;uncontrolled diabetes;american indians;blood pressure;diabetes complications

LA101690-0040

TUBERCULOSIS NOW THE DEADLIEST DISEASE AS TOLL CLIMBS

Tuberculosis has become the world's deadliest infectious disease, and the toll could soon rise even more dramatically if controls are not initiated quickly, the World Health Organization said Monday. The U.N. agency, in its first comprehensive look at global tuberculosis in a decade, said the disease kills nearly 3 million people a year, most of them between the ages of 15 and 59, "the segment of the population that is economically most productive." WHO attributed the sharp rise in part to the growing AIDS epidemic. It estimated that about 3 million people worldwide are dually infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), which causes AIDS, and tuberculosis. "It is becoming a parallel epidemic, and it is this trend that has public health officials worried," Dr. Hiroshi Nakajima, director general of WHO, said in a statement. The agency estimated that between 15 million and 20 million adults will be infected with HIV by the year 2000, and it predicted that the number of cases and deaths from tuberculosis will rise sharply as a result, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia. "These new data have been stunning to everyone, because an awful lot of people had thought that tuberculosis had gone away," said Dr. Barry Bloom, a professor of microbiology at the Albert Einstein College of Medicine in New York and a consultant to the United Nations. Tuberculosis is a highly communicable disease of the lungs and other organs caused by a bacterium transmitted through the air when infected people cough or sneeze. There are about 8 million new cases of tuberculosis a year, according to the U.N. agency. About half of these are infectious. Also, an estimated 1.7 billion individuals worldwide carry the organism but are not infectious to others. In these individuals, the organism can remain dormant without causing active disease for many years unless the immune system is somehow impaired. AIDS, or acquired immune deficiency syndrome, destroys the body's immune system. An individual does not have to have a damaged immune system to contract an active case of tuberculosis. But when a case of tuberculosis becomes active, as it can in individuals who carry the organism, that person can also infect numerous others. This is what is happening in developing nations, where the AIDS epidemic is raging. "In many places, more than half the beds in medical wards are patients with tuberculosis," Bloom said. "Many of these people do, in fact, die of AIDS. But if they're not treated for tuberculosis, those people will be spreading the disease (tuberculosis) in their communities. You don't have to have a depressed immune system to get tuberculosis." In the United States, public health officials began to recognize about five years ago that tuberculosis -- after steadily declining since the 1950s -- was making a surprising comeback as a result of the AIDS epidemic. At that time, they noticed a startling and unexpected drop in the rate of decline of tuberculosis cases. This year, Bloom said, the number of cases of active tuberculosis in the United States is up nearly 5% over last year, with 23,495 new cases. The overall incidence of tuberculosis in the United States is 9.5 cases per 100,000 population, he said. In New York City, which has the highest number of AIDS cases in the nation, the incidence is 36 per 100,000, Bloom said. Effective drugs to combat tuberculosis cost about $30 to $50 per person, given over six months. However, the drugs are not always available in developing countries, and compliance is a major problem. The drugs must be taken for the entire six months to eliminate the infection.

deadliest infectious disease;global tuberculosis;human immunodeficiency virus;tuberculosis cases;world health organization;parallel epidemic;aids epidemic

LA102189-0151

ORANGE COUNTY FOCUS: COUNTYWIDE; PLAN WOULD COUNT ILLEGALS IN '90 CENSUS

The director of the county Social Services Agency wants all Orange County residents, including illegal aliens, to be counted in the 1990 Census, and he will ask the Board of Supervisors to support his position. A resolution doing just that will be introduced at the supervisors' meeting Tuesday. Agency officials said that if illegal aliens were to be excluded from the count, it would mean that, on paper, the county had 200,000 fewer residents than the county's actual population. That lower figure would result in the loss of an estimated $56 million a year in federal revenue, they said. In a letter to the supervisors, Larry Leaman, director of the agency, urged the board to adopt the resolution supporting a complete count of all county residents and opposing "all attempts to systematically exclude any groups from the census." Such exclusions, the letter said, could result in the county losing representatives in Congress because districts are determined by population. Just Thursday, efforts to include illegal aliens in the Census received a major boost when negotiators from the U.S. Senate and House agreed on the issue. Before Thursday's action, the Senate had voted to bar the Census Bureau from counting illegal aliens, although the House had twice rejected efforts to exclude aliens. The agreement worked out Thursday at the House-Senate conference will go back to each body before it is sent to President Bush, but it is considered likely to be approved. Orange County officials contend that much is at stake in whether aliens are included in the count. In 1985, before the Federal Immigration Reform Act, the number of illegal aliens in the county was estimated at 300,000. In Santa Ana, home to 44.5% of the county's Latinos, city officials worried about the ramifications of undercounting its residents. They figured that in the 1980 Census, the city was shortchanged by at least 50,000 people. If those residents had been included, it could have meant another $2.2 million in state and federal revenue, according to city officials. GEORGE FRANK

federal revenue;complete count;1990 census;orange county residents;census bureau;representatives;illegal aliens;u.s. senate

LA102190-0045

POLITICAL FORECAST; TERM LIMITS: WHAT WOULD BE CHANGED?

Two propositions on California's Nov. 6 ballot would, among other things, limit the terms of statewide officeholders and state legislators. Proposition 131 would limit statewide elected officials to two consecutive four-year terms, state legislators to 12 consecutive years in office; Proposition 140 would hold Assembly members to six years in office, state senators and statewide elected officials to eight. If either passes, or both do, what would state government be like by 1996 and thereafter? Would passage of such measures be likely to spur similar legislation in other states, or at the federal level? The Times asked six legislators and legislative specialists. Richard L. Mountjoy, member of the state Assembly (R-Monrovia), first elected in 1978, a former general contractor who has served as mayor and city councilman of Monrovia (1968-76): By 1996, there would be all new faces. The argument that the lobbyists would take advantage of them, I believe, is not valid. Term limits would give the people of California more control over the Legislature, and the Legislature would be less prone to special interests, because legislators would know they are going to be there for six years and they're out. (Term limits) would stop (politics) from being a professional occupation. For many members, that's all they've ever done -- be in the Legislature, legislative staff. I think it will return the Legislature to more of a citizen-type legislator. The Legislature, right now, is controlled by those people who have a vested interest in legislation. I came to the Legislature after eight years on the (Monrovia) City Council. I knew the system there pretty well. I knew how to get things done. I think that the legislative committee hearings are nothing more than City Council meetings on different subject matters. I think that what would happen in the Legislature is more expertise coming out of the citizenry. I think there would be people from all walks of life. I think the age bracket would creep up a little more. Get people who have been in business. Folks who want to do it as a public service. At least it would not be dominated by professionals. Robert Presley, state senator (D-Riverside) since 1974, formerly a member of the Riverside County Sheriff's Department for 24 years, 12 of them as undersheriff: My guess is that in about 20 years, there would be another initiative to change (term limits) because we will have found that (they) didn't work. The lobbyists are there for a very long time, and they become very expert in their fields . . . and will be even more influential, more powerful. They are not really accountable to anyone except their employers. It would become clear rather quickly that you have a bunch of elected amateurs trying to run a very complex, complicated system of state government. We are not a little backwater state, anymore. We have a population of about 30 million people. We are growing at the rate of three-quarters of a million people a year, and that, alone, is hard for people to comprehend. It is not just the numbers. It is the ethnic mix, the cultural diversity -- all of those things have to be cranked in. So, governing the state of California . . . is not as easy and simple as a lot of people would think. And the other thing a lot of people seem to think is that you the governor -- or you the legislator -- can get up there and solve these problems tomorrow. Well, there are some of them that are almost not solvable. You have to keep trying. Karl T. Kurtz, director of state services, National Conference of State Legislatures: The most negative and pernicious impact of term limitations will be on the leadership of the Legislature . . . They need leaders who have a great deal of experience, skill and ability to lead and to get things done, so that they avoid the kind of stalemate we have had in Congress in recent years. But legislatures also need strong committee chairmen, and term limits mean that relatively inexperienced people are going to be in leadership and that they are -- by definition -- lame ducks from the very beginning. That is probably the most negative impact. There has been a national movement that started in California, 25 years ago, to really strengthen the role of legislatures and to make them co-equal branches of government; things like term limitations, which would restrict the power and authority of legislatures, are a step backward in that movement. It would mean that, in relative terms, the legislatures would cede more power and authority to the executive branch, to lobbyists and to legislative staff. Mark P. Petracca, assistant professor of politics and society, UC Irvine: The national effect would be very impressive because, unlike Oklahoma (where voters recently approved a 12-year-limit on legislators), which does not have a reputation for being in the vanguard of political change in America, California does. Because it is the largest political state in the country, a success for either proposition here is likely to have spinoff moves around the country. . . . Since states do have the power to amend the Constitution on their own, although it is much harder to do it that way, it could very well be that the groundswell of support for (this) movement in some key industrial states would lead to, not only initiatives in those states to restrict their own state legislative terms, but also . . . a demand for a constitutional amendment to do the same. As to what are the implications of term limitations in the state of California, a lot of people think that this is a partisan issue. I have tried to make the argument that it is not really partisan at all. The parties could be helped by this . . . people would have to become more dependent on the party for funding and for guidance, and less dependent on the special interests. The big problem is that nationally -- or locally -- we do not have a culture that encourages and rewards public service for short periods of time. Democracy requires that, and yet we do not have it. That is why we created what, in effect, is a professional elite to govern us. Representation does not occur well then. Antonia Hernandez, president of the Mexican-American Legal Defense Fund: The Schabarum initiative (Proposition 140, backed by Los Angeles County Supervisor Pete Schabarum), with a six-year limit (for Assembly members), would have an adverse effect on the Latino community. We have begun to look at whether it would violate the Voting Rights Act. Running for election is a very expensive proposition. For minorities who do not have a financial base, it is usually extremely hard to raise the money . . . well-financed, well-organized candidates who are supported by other communities will have a much better chance. It seems that as we (Latinos) begin to make entries into the political process, the rules are beginning to change. Elected officials are supposed to represent the people who elect them. If there are constant changes, the impact of term limits would be to empower the bureaucracy -- the people who are not elected -- and (they) would definitely empower the special interests who have the finances and the ability to assist the bureaucrats.

special interests;political change;consecutive four-year terms;term limitations;professional occupation;statewide officeholders;political process;negative impact;term limits;state legislators;california

LA103089-0043

CHICAGO MARATHON; PATIENCE CARRIES DAVIES-HALE, WEIDENBACH

Mother Nature conspired against this struggling marathon Sunday, serving up balmy, windy weather and wilting both the men's and women's fields. Temperatures during the Old Style/Chicago marathon hovered in the mid-60s, with 53% humidity. The heat sapped the strength of most runners, giving the patient and steady runners a distinct advantage. Among the men, Paul Davies-Hale of England proved the most patient, winning in a rather pedestrian 2 hours 11 minutes 25 seconds, in his first marathon ever. It was the slowest winning time in this race since 1982. Among the women, Lisa Weidenbach of Issaquah, Wash., repeated as champion, with a personal best of 2:28:15, impressive under the circumstances. It was the second-hottest race in Chicago history, only 1978 was worse. By comparison, last year's race was 30 degrees cooler at the start. Most distance runners prefer temperatures in the 40s, with cloud cover. The race conditions were simply more bad luck for the 12th running of Chicago's marathon, which has been fighting for respectability since losing its sponsor in 1986 and staging no race in 1987. After a week of summer-like weather, race organizers hoped to be salvaged by a good race; to have, if not impressive times on this flat and fast course, at least a memorable race. That developed, at points, Sunday, as about 8,000 runners started at Daley Plaza downtown and wended their way through city streets. A pack of five men took off fast, maintaining a 2:09 pace at nine miles. Those early leaders: El-Mostafa Nechchadi of Morocco, Don Janicki of Colorado, Gerardo Alcala of Mexico, Carlos Montero of Spain and Gabriel Kamau of Kenya. They did the early work against the wind, while a second pack hovered 20 seconds behind. The lead pack went through the half-marathon at 1:04:50, a pace that would wither in the second half. No one who was in the lead pack at the halfway point, with the exception of Montero, finished in the top five. Davies-Hale had been among those who had cagily stayed back, going with a more conservative approach. "I was concentrating on running five-minute miles," he said. He accomplished that, almost exactly. His time works out to 5:00.8 mile splits. Davies-Hale caught the second pack at 13 miles and met up with pre-race favorite Steve Binns, who lives 30 miles from Davies-Hale in England's West Midlands. The two quickly went in different directions -- Binns falling back (he eventually dropped out) and Davies-Hale moving up. "I asked Binnsie who was in the first group, he told me, and I went," Davies-Hale said. At 22 miles, Davies-Hale was in the lead and in control, running smoothly and not appearing to labor under the bright sun. Following him, and likewise picking off the fading runners in the first pack, were Ravil Kashapov of the Soviet Union, who was second in 2:13:19, and David Long, also from the British Midlands, who was third in 2:13:37. Ed Eyestone was the first U.S. finisher in fourth, 2:14:57. In the women's race, Weidenbach had not been the favorite and she agreed with that handicapping. "To be honest with you, I was afraid of Cathy (O'Brien)," she said. With reason. O'Brien, a 22-year-old from Boston, has been on the verge of a breakthrough for a long time. She took off in Sunday's race with authority and ran with a 20-30-second cushion for 15 miles. Then, the heat from the sun and the perceptible heat of Weidenbach constantly gaining did her in. At 18 miles, Weidenbach came up on O'Brien, her New Balance teammate. They shared some water, then Weidenbach tossed aside the water bottle and put on a surge that left O'Brien flat. It was the same spot, the corner of Wells and North Avenue, that Weidenbach had taken the lead in last year's race. It was also where dozens of her family members and friends were posted. Carla Beurskens of the Netherlands, at 37 still an amazing runner, eventually passed the struggling O'Brien and placed second 2:30:24. O'Brien was third in 2:31:19. Given the heat, the humidity and the wind, Weidenbach's time might have been as much as two minutes faster. Even the 2:28 is respectable -- only five U.S. women have run under 2:30. "I guess when you are having a good day, nothing is going to get you down," she said. Davies-Hale, a former plumber from Rugeley, Straffordshire, seemed bemused by the attention and nonplussed that he had just won $50,000 in prize money. About as far as he seemed willing to go, on the celebrity scale, was to say he had pitched the plumbing job. "I'll still do the odd washing machine . . . good rates," he said. Davies-Hale, 27, came to the United States in 1985 and settled in Boulder, Colo., the nation's unofficial running center. Davies-Hale may have shown a liking for running in heat when he won the Boulder Bolder that year in terrific heat. He was a 1984 Olympian in the steeplechase and, on the advice of others, moved up to 5,000 and 10,000 meters. Still, Davies-Hale is unsure what his future in the marathon is. Like his fellow countrymen, he's low-key and practical and not interested in speculating. "I've already had a great track season," Davies-Hale said. "I may run another marathon next year . . . but I really want to get back on the track." Marathon Notes Race organizers insist that this race is at a world-class level, especially pointing to the world's richest purse. That may be so, but all major marathons have drug testing and Chicago has none. Race director Tim Murphy said the race was not selected by The Athletics Congress, which governs the sport, to conduct testing. . . . Men's and women's winners won $50,000, second place won $30,000 and third place $20,000. . . . Scot Hellebuyck won the men's wheelchair race in 1:45:30. Ann Cody Morris won the women's wheelchair race in 1:58:51.

distance runners;race conditions;windy weather;steady runners;patient;chicago marathon;second-hottest race

LA103089-0070

JET CRASHES ON CARRIER; FIVE KILLED

A jet trainer crashed Sunday on the flight deck of the aircraft carrier Lexington in the Gulf of Mexico, killing five people, injuring at least two and damaging several aircraft, the Navy said. The crash of the two-seat T-2 Buckeye caused several fires on the World War II-era ship that sailors quickly brought under control, officials said. Cmdr. Dennis Hessler, spokesman for the chief of naval education and training at Pensacola, said he did not know whether the plane was taking off or landing at the time of the crash. It was unclear how many people were aboard the jet. The crash also did major damage to two aircraft on the flight deck and minor damage to another, a Pentagon spokesman said. The Lexington, the Navy's oldest aircraft carrier, was 17 miles south of its home port of Pensacola when the accident occurred, Coast Guard Lt. Mark Kasper said in New Orleans. The jet was assigned to Training Squadron 19, based at the Meridian, Miss., Naval Air Station, the Navy said. The victims' identities were being withheld pending notification of next of kin. Navy helicopters took the injured to hospitals, Kasper said. A burn victim was taken to the University of South Alabama Medical Center in Mobile. Kasper said that the Coast Guard sent a jet from Mobile to fly a team of ordnance experts in Panama City to Pensacola because the Navy apparently was concerned that fuel cells aboard the jet might explode after being damaged in the crash. The 46-year-old Lexington is the only aircraft carrier used by the Navy exclusively for training.

crash;major damage;aircraft carrier lexington;flight deck;victims;jet trainer;t-2 buckeye

LA110490-0184

OFFICER PLANS MARATHON ON BATTLESHIP

While Lt. Guy Zanti's wife and father run a marathon today in Washington, the naval officer intends to match their efforts on the battleship Wisconsin in the waters of the Middle East. Zanti became interested in marathon running in April when he watched his 53-year-old father run his first marathon in California. Zanti told his father that even if he couldn't make it to today's Marine Corps Marathon, he would still run the 26.2 miles. "He had been based in the Mediterranean, so he planned on training on land and the ship, and then running the marathon on land," said his father, Frank Zanti. "When this crisis came up, he was deployed to the gulf. But he didn't stop his training, and he's going to run on the ship." The Wisconsin is 887 feet long, about one-sixth of a mile; the 29-year-old Zanti will have to make about 75 laps.

marine corps marathon;washington;training;battleship wisconsin;marathon running;lt. guy zanti

LA110589-0082

CHILE WILL STUDY SAN FRANCISCO QUAKE

Scientists and engineers in Chile, which has the distinction of playing host to the largest earthquake ever measured, are waiting with serious interest reports on the Oct. 17 San Francisco earthquake. Measured by magnitude, "Chile is the world's most seismic country," said building engineer Elias Arze, president of the Chilean Seismology and Anti-Seismic Engineering Assn. The San Francisco quake measuring 7.1 was comparable to the earthquake that struck Santiago and central Chile in March, 1985, killing 180 people and toppling some 70,000 homes. And like California, Chile is still waiting for another "big one," an earthquake of magnitude 8 or more. Both areas are situated along the Pacific "ring of fire," the huge faults created by the collision of massive plates of the earth's surface. "Chile, along with Alaska, are the sites that have had the biggest seismic occurrences," said Prof. Edgar Kausel, chairman of the Geophysics Department at the University of Chile. Chile has about 2,270 miles of its coast along the earthquake fault between the Nazca plate and the South American plate. The frequency of earth movements prompts Chileans to say that every president has at least one major earthquake during the traditional six-year term in office. The long history of earth movements in Chile has led to a sharing of information with U.S. and Japanese scientists and engineers over the behavior of the earth and of buildings during earthquakes. Arze said after the 1985 earthquake, teams of foreign experts arrived in Chile to study the effects of the earthquake on buildings. "Our buildings performed very well," he said. Since earthquake building codes were implemented in Chile in the 1930s, only two engineered buildings have collapsed, he said. Older buildings have been replaced over the years. "We have so many earthquakes in Chile it has cleaned up our construction," Arze said. Chilean earthquakes tend to be sharper and last longer than those of California, leading to differences in building design. While California engineers have promoted a flexible design of steel framed buildings that allows them to swing in a quake, Chileans opt for stiffer construction. Chilean buildings are of reinforced concrete with more inside walls. "Our buildings move little compared to (those of) the Americans," said Arze. Descriptions of earthquakes in Chile date back to Spanish settlers in 1575. In an 1835 journal entry about a stop the ship the Beagle made in Chile, scientist Charles Darwin described an earthquake he experienced. Just a few months before the 1906 earthquake in San Francisco, a quake measuring 8.5 struck the central Chilean coast, destroying the city of Valparaiso. On May 21, 1960, an earthquake measuring 9.5 struck an area about 600 miles long in southern Chile, releasing energy nearly 1,000 times that of this year's San Francisco quake. Parts of the coast stretching south from the city of Concepcion, 325 miles south of Santiago, dropped nine feet. "It was the biggest registered in the history of seismic instrumention," said Kausel. About 5,000 people were killed in the sparsely populated area, most of them when the coastline dropped. A tsunami, a tidal wave created by the earthquake, killed others and caused considerable damage in Japan and Hawaii.

considerable damage;massive plates;chilean earthquakes;seismic country;chilean buildings;earth movements;major earthquake;chilean seismology;chile;san francisco earthquake

LA110590-0038

KENYAN LEADS A FOREIGN SWEEP; RUNNING: DOUGLAS WAKIIHURI AND POLAND'S WANDA PANFIL ARE WINNERS OF THE NEW YORK CITY MARATHON.

Foreigners continued their domination of the New York City Marathon but the winners weren't Juma Ikangaa or Grete Waitz. Douglas Wakiihuri, a Kenyan who trains in Japan, was the overall winner and Poland's Wanda Panfil, who lives in Mexico, was the women's winner in Sunday's race which was plagued by heat and humidity. It was the third consecutive marathon victory for each. Ikangaa, who had captivated New Yorkers last year by winning in course-record time, and Waitz, who had won the race nine times, each ran fourth in their respective divisions. For Waitz, the result was different than anything she had experienced in New York. It was the first time she had finished the race without winning. Since Waitz, of Norway, ran the marathon for the first time in 1978, no American has won the women's division. The last American women's champion was Miki Gorman in 1977. The last American men's winner was Alberto Salazar in 1982, when he took the title for the third time. Kim Jones of Spokane, Wash., finished second among the women for the second consecutive year, five seconds behind Panfil to make it the closest finish in the race's 21-year history. Panfil was timed in 2 hours 30 minutes 45 seconds, Jones in 2:30:50. It was the slowest winning women's time since Waitz's 2:32:30 in 1978. Wakiihuri, who bolted away at 20 miles, clocked 2:12:39, the slowest since Orlando Pizzolato of Italy won in 2:14:53 in 1984, when the temperature reached 79 degrees, the hottest in race history. Sunday, the temperature got as high as 72 degrees and the humidity peaked at 66 percent. Ken Martin of Dallas, the runner-up last year, failed to finish this time. Bothered by a virus for the past two months, he dropped out after 19 miles. The first American finisher was Gerry O'Hara, a 26-year-old New Yorker who was 29th in 2:26:15. Mohamed Idris of Brooklyn, N.Y., who finished 22nd in 2:22:23, originally was announced as the top American, but race officials later determined he was an Egyptian citizen. It was Wakiihuri's first marathon in the United States and the third for Panfil, who did not finish the '88 New York City Marathon, after falling near the 16-mile mark and suffering a bruised ankle. After staying with the lead pack for the first 20 miles, the cool, composed Wakiihuri took control and pulled away to a 40-second victory over Salvador Garcia of Mexico. In only seven previous marathons, the 27-year-old Wakiihuri has won the '87 world championship, the '89 London Marathon in a personal-best 2:09:03 and the '90 Commonwealth Games marathon. He also finished second in the 1988 Olympic Games.

douglas wakiihuri;foreigners;third consecutive marathon victory;winners;wanda panfil;new york city marathon

LA120290-0163

'HELLO' AND 'BONJOUR' AS TUNNELERS MEET; ENGLISH CHANNEL: BRITISH AND FRENCH WORKERS KNOCK OUT A PASSAGE BIG ENOUGH TO WALK THROUGH, LINKING THE TWO SIDES OF THE 'CHUNNEL.'

Cheers erupted Saturday on both sides of the English Channel when British and French workers digging the Channel Tunnel finally met after knocking out a passage large enough to walk through and shake hands. "Today, for the first time, men can cross the channel underground," French President Francois Mitterrand said. "What a brilliant sign of the vitality of our two countries." The breakthrough came in a 6-foot-tall service tunnel that will be used to maintain two rail tunnels still being bored. It marked a symbolic milestone in Europe's biggest engineering project. Using jackhammers, Graham Fagg, 42, of Dover, England, and Philippe Cozette, 37, of Calais, France, knocked out the last foot of chalk to link up the British and French sides of the tunnel -- which has been dubbed a "chunnel." The smiling pair then clasped hands, embraced and exchanged their national flags. Workers in overalls looked on and applauded. "God save the queen!" cried French workers, uncorking Champagne bottles. "Vive la France!" came the reply from the British side. Saturday's handshake came three years to the day after tunneling began at Sangatte, near Calais, and in Folkestone, England. The $16.7-billion Channel Tunnel will make it possible to travel from Paris to London by high-speed train in 3 1/2 hours when it opens in June, 1993. The train trip through just the tunnel is expected to take 35 minutes, compared with 90 minutes to cross the channel by ferry. Fares for the undersea crossing have not been set. But experts say the charges may be at least double the 1986 projections of $46 per person in a car and $19 per train passenger. The tunnelers have spent the last month drilling through the last 100 yards of chalk with giant American-built boring machines, trying to align the two halves. The British tunnelers actually linked up with the French on Oct. 29, when workers drilled a 2-inch hole through the chalk in a service tunnel. The connection ended Britain's island separation from continental Europe for the first time since the last Ice Age about 8,000 years ago. Fagg and Cozette were chosen by draw from among the 3,000 workers to represent their countries in Saturday's meeting. After widening the passage from the size of a peephole to a window, they laid down their tools and shook hands. "Bonjour," boomed Fagg. "Hello," Cozette said, chuckling. Michel Delebarre and Malcolm Rifkind, the French and British transportation ministers, rode in small service trains down the maintenance tunnel to witness the handshake. Fagg and Rifkind rode on to Sangatte, while Cozette and Delebarre headed for Folkestone to join in celebrations that lasted into the night. Nine workers have been killed during the project. The cost has climbed from an initial estimate of $9.4 billion to $16.7 billion. The tunnel is viewed positively in France, where it is expected to revive economically depressed northern areas. But Britain has shown worry over the loss of its historic moat from the Continent. Many Britons fear drug traffickers or terrorists will invade their island via the tunnel.

continental europe;high-speed train;english channel;brilliant sign;channel tunnel;rail tunnels;6-foot-tall service tunnel;engineering project;symbolic milestone

LA120389-0130

FUTURE HURRICANES MAY PACK MORE PUNCH

The names will be different, but more hurricanes with the powerful punches of Hugo and Gilbert may be prowling the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico in the future. "The probability of more intense hurricanes in the Atlantic region is greater in the next decade or two than it has been in the 1970s and '80s," says meteorologist William M. Gray of Colorado State University, who analyzes hurricane patterns. Gray predicts a possible return of the more ferocious hurricanes of the '50s and '60s, because of an apparent break in the periodic West African drought. Rainfall in the Sahel, typically associated with more intense hurricane activity, was above average in 1988 for the first time since 1969, he says. A second rainy summer this year indicates an end to the drought. The most intense hurricanes, Gray explains, usually form at low latitudes from tropical disturbances moving westward from Africa. The well-watered conditions in the '50s and '60s produced 31 of the most severe kind (categories 4 and 5) in the 17-year period 1950 to 1967. Hurricanes are classified by the Saffir-Simpson scale, the fiercest a No. 5, or catastrophic storm. The atmospheric pressure at its center drops drastically and its wind speed exceeds 155 m.p.h. In the drier 17-year period of 1970 to 1987, there were only 13 severe storms. In the '88 and '89 seasons -- June through November -- there have been five. Last year's Gilbert, which left a wide swath of devastation across Jamaica and the Mexican Yucatan, was the mightiest hurricane on record in the Western Hemisphere. Its atmospheric pressure dropped to 885 millibars and its wind speed reached 200 m.p.h. This September's Hugo, which ripped through the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico before clobbering South Carolina, had sustained winds of 150 m.p.h. and an atmospheric pressure of 918 millibars (27.1 inches). Officially a 4 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, it "may be a borderline 5," says meteorologist Mark Zimmer of the National Hurricane Center in Miami. The strongest recorded storm on Earth, Zimmer says, was 1979 Typhoon Tip in the western Pacific, with a low pressure of 870 millibars. Outside the Atlantic area and the eastern Pacific, hurricanes are called typhoons or cyclones. Fortunately, most Atlantic-region hurricanes do not develop to their worst potential. In this century, only two No. 5 hurricanes have struck the United States with full force, the 1935 Labor Day storm that ravaged the Florida Keys and 1969's Camille, which slammed ashore at Mississippi and Louisiana. In 1980, Allen, the mightiest Caribbean storm then recorded, had lost much of its punch before it hit the Gulf Coast of Texas. "If the future is like the past with its pattern of atmospheric conditions, there is a good probability of the return of stronger storms," Gray said. But in the 1990s, he warns, U.S. destruction will be at least four to five times more costly than in the '50s and '60s, because of the boom in population and property development along coastal areas. The threat of global warming also portends hurricanes more powerful than any yet recorded, says meteorologist Kerry Emanuel of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Hurricanes are like huge, self-sustaining heat engines spinning across the sea. They get their power from the water's warmth. To develop, they need tropical ocean-surface temperatures of about 80 degrees Fahrenheit. "If tropical ocean temperatures go up, the intensity of hurricanes will," Emanuel explains. "Sea-surface temperatures set the upper limits." The biggest uncertainty, he says, is whether global warming will affect tropical ocean temperatures. The gradual warming of the Earth results from the greenhouse effect, caused primarily by the accumulation of carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere, which, like the glass of a greenhouse, trap heat.

atmospheric conditions;intense hurricanes;catastrophic storm;hurricane patterns;ferocious hurricanes;atlantic region;meteorologist william gray

LA121189-0017

LATE ENTRANT WINS A RUN FOR MONEY; MARATHON: ERNESTO BEATRIZ MARTINEZ OF MEXICO CITY, TRAVELED A LONG ROAD TO THE FINISH LINE SUNDAY, BUT HIS VICTORY AND PRIZE MONEY WILL GO ALONG WAY TOWARD HELPING HIS FAMILY AND FRIENDS.

While more than a thousand runners were treated to an evening of comedy, music and magic at Saturday night's carbo load dinner on Mission Bay, Ernesto Beatriz Martinez of Mexico City was treated to a bumpy 12 1/2-hour bus ride from his hometown to border town Tijuana. Not until early Sunday morning did Beatriz Martinez, 29, cross the U.S./Mexican border to register for, then reach the starting line of, the San Diego International Marathon on East Mission Bay Drive. His recovery was simply amazing. Two hours, 16 minutes and 12 seconds later, in only his second marathon -- his first was this event last year when he finished eighth -- Beatriz Martinez crossed the finish line 39 seconds ahead of South African Mark Plaatjes, now of Lake Forest, Ill. "I wasn't 100% sure I'd win," he said through an interpreter, "but I had much confidence that I'd do well. I was well prepared." Marie Rollins, a member of the 1988 Irish Olympic team and now of Glendale, kicked her race up a gear after the 16th mile and won the women's race in 2:39:05, handily defeating hometown favorite Mindy Ireland (2:42:18) of Escondido. It was the first marathon Rollins has completed this year, after dropping out of the New York City Marathon four weeks ago in mile 18 because of stomach cramps. "The main thing was to feel the best I could," said Rollins, 30. "I went out real conservative, I ran my own race and it paid off." Indeed it did. Beatriz Martinez and Rollins received $5,000 each for their victories. And for Beatriz Martinez, who ran cross country for San Diego City College in 1988, he might as well have won the lottery. This was a man who earlier this week was running in tattered shoes and had a TV raffled in his honor to raise the $180 required to cover transportation, the entrance fee and other expenses. "I want to help my family and friends who raised the money for me," said Beatriz Martinez, a school teacher in Mexico City. "My family, they are very poor." Plaatjes and Ireland took home $2,500 each, and Maurilio Castillo (2:18:06) of Naucalpan, Mexico, the men's third place finisher, and Great Britian's Gillian Horovitz (2:43:20), now of New York City, third in the women's race, received $1,500. Doug Kurtis of Detroit was successful in his bid to run his 12th marathon in a calendar year under 2 hours, 20 minutes. His 2:18:16 finish set a world record. Kurtis was originally awarded third place, but miscommunication somewhere along the 26.2-mile course gave Castillo third in his first marathon and moved Kurtis to fourth. Castillo was entered in the accompanying half marathon, but he and Pedro Casillas missed that races' turn at just over the mile mark and mistakenly followed the longer route. According to Dr. Bill Burke, co-owner of the marathon, Castillo was told several times that he was running the marathon course, but he decided to continue. "I traveled too much to get here to go home and say I went the wrong way," Castillo said, also using an interpreter. There was some question that Castillo hadn't finished the entire race as reporters and photographers on the lead vehicle didn't see him for several miles. But Plaatjes said it was because he and Casillas, who eventually dropped out at mile 18, were so far ahead of the lead pack of Plaatjes, Danny Bustos, Dick LeDoux, Kurtis and Leodigard Martin. "We saw them way ahead of us," said Plaatjes. "I told them (Bustos, LeDoux and Martin) not to worry about me, I'm not racing, but they better go catch the other guys. The first time we caught them was at 18 miles." Said Burke: "My position is that he paid the same fee, he ran the same race and he finished the race." Although the city didn't allow any vehicles on the course from miles 18-22, Burke said cameras would verify that he did cover the complete distance. Bustos of Las Vegas, N.M., led for the first 14 miles, followed closely by Plaatjes, Beatriz Martinez and LeDoux. But Beatriz Martinez took the lead at 23 miles and Plaatjes couldn't close the gap. Rollins and Ireland ran together for 11 miles until Kathy Smith of Irvine took the lead for miles 12-17. Rollins reeled Smith in gradually and took the lead for the remainder. Marathon Notes Marie Rollins' time is the fourth best for women in San Diego-area marathon history and breaks Chantal Best's 1988 race record of 2:42:22. Best decided late Saturday to run the marathon, but dropped out after 18 miles . . . There were 6,014 entries for the marathon (3,056) and half marathon (2,958). . . .San Diego's Steve McCormack finished sixth, 10 minutes behind fifth place LeDoux, with a 2:29:08. . . .Jeffrey Holyfield of San Diego won the men's half marathon in 1:07:44, and Katie Webb of Escondido was the women's winner in 1:21:46. . . . Bill Fricke of Los Angeles won the wheelchair marathon in 1:55:30 and 14-year-old Eric Neitzel of San Diego, recent winner of the Mission Bay 25K, won the wheelchair half marathon in 1:13:14.

marie rollins;ernesto beatriz martinez;runners;marathon course;mexico city;san diego international marathon

SJMN91-06012224

JOHNSON SECOND IN FIRST RACE SINCE BAN

His time of 5.77 seconds was eclipsed by the 5.75-second time of Daron Council, a former narcotics officer who now works in crime prevention for the Alachua County, Fla., sheriff's department.; The brief race produced a record crowd of 17,050 and drew nearly 500 journalists from 14 countries in North America, Europe and Asia.; They were attracted by the return of Johnson, whose day of infamy, Sept. 24, 1988, has assured him a millennium of fame.; He would merely have been a gold medalist if a positive test at the 1988 Olympics had not turned him into the most vilified champion in the history of the Games. It also led to the two-year suspension from the sport that made an epic event of Johnson's race Friday.; Johnson got off to an uncharacteristically slow start and finished second by a few inches to Council.; "I got caught in the blocks," Johnson said.; By then, the start had been delayed eight minutes by two false starts and a problem with the board track.; Johnson took his second-place finish in stride. "I think it was a success," Johnson said. "There was a lot of pressure on me because it was my first race back, and it was hard to concentrate on the race with the way the fans were yelling for me."; It was Johnson's first indoor loss in 11 meets dating to February 1987. His time was far from the 5.55 he ran in 1987 that is still listed as the fastest ever at 50 meters.; "I'm in very good shape, but I'm not in racing shape," Johnson said as he was escorted to drug testing, for which he was randomly selected.; It was a different-looking Johnson than the one who had bolted to apparent victory in the Olympics.; This Johnson wasn't as bulky in the upper body, nor was his face as puffy.; Despite Johnson's trimness, he said he weighed the same -- 174 pounds -- and was lifting the same amount of weight -- bench-pressing 365 pounds -- as before his two-year suspension for testing positive for a performance-enhancing steroid.; "People are saying I'm smaller," Johnson said before the race. "Size doesn't matter. It's how fast you run . . . it's speed."; When he was introduced before the race, Johnson was given a thunderous standing ovation. When the race ended, the fans thought he had won and broke into loud cheering.; Banners welcoming him back were draped around the arena. One said, "Ben Knows Track and Field -- Just Do It, Ben." Another said, "Go Ben Go!" and a third read, "Burn Rubber, Ben."

two-year suspension;slow start;second-place finish;johnson;record crowd;daron council;first race;drug testing;first indoor loss

SJMN91-06071022

RAINSTORMS INCREASE THE THREAT OF FOREST FIRES

As of last month, live pines in the Mount Palomar area near San Diego had less moisture than boards at a lumber yard.; Firefighting also will be made tougher this year because much of the military reserve and National Guard equipment and pilots normally mobilized against wildfires are still in the Persian Gulf and probably will be there several more months.; The area at risk of severe fires spreads beyond California and takes in about a third of the United States mainland, including Oregon and Washington east of the Cascades and much of Nevada, Arizona, Utah, Colorado, Wyoming, Idaho, Montana and the Dakotas.; But the threat is most extreme in California, where the December freeze added to the accumulation of dead vegetation, or fuel, as firefighters call it.; While reluctant to predict fires because they depend not just on drought but also on temperature and wind patterns, fire officials are deeply worried.; "This year is shaping up to be the worst fire season we've ever experienced," said Warner McGrew, assistant fire chief at Santa Barbara, where the drought is worst and where brush fires destroyed 600 homes and did $200 million damage last year.; The freeze killed the avocado and lemon orchards that used to serve as fire breaks, and McGrew said fire codes are being strictly enforced to compel homeowners to remove vegetation near houses.; Given the severity of the threat and lack of equipment and water to fight fires, officials throughout the region say they plan an unusually aggressive approach this spring, trying to put out even the smallest wildfires before they spread, and taking preventive measures such as deploying firefighters to an area where lightning storms are forecast.; It worked in Oregon; That approach helped last year in the Umatilla National Forest in northeastern Oregon, where 170 fires were reported, said Gordon Reinhart, a fire and recreation officer with the U.S. Forest Service in Pendleton, Ore.; One reason the fire threat is so grave in California is population growth, which has spread suburban development into wilderness areas such as the canyons east of Malibu Beach, 25 miles from central Los Angeles, where million-dollar homes sit on brushy hillsides covered with highly flammable greasewood.; Fire corridor; Fire officials consider the Malibu canyons a natural fire corridor because high winds whip through them to the ocean.; "We are going to have quite a time trying to protect those structures," said Paul H. Rippens, assistant chief for forestry at the Los Angeles County Fire Department.; The department is clearing some areas by setting small fires that are tightly controlled, the first of which recently burned off 335 hillside acres in the Monte Nido area of Malibu.; Expand youth corps; Gov. Pete Wilson has proposed expanding the state's youth conservation corps to replace the troops who traditionally have stepped in to help fight the worst Western fires.; But it will be difficult to replace the C-130 planes that are converted into air tankers to drop retardants onto flames, and the military helicopters with infrared sensing devices that peer through smoke.

firefighting;preventive measures;fire season;severe fires spreads;wildfires;fire threat;natural fire corridor;aggressive approach;brush fires;firefighters;california

SJMN91-06084228

RUNNING AWAY FROM THE TRUTH

St. Martin's, 306 pp., $18.95; CHARLIE Francis, testifying in 1988 in Toronto at a federal inquiry about the use of performance-enhancing drugs in sports, seemed a mad scientist, something on the order of Dr. Frankenstein. Francis, the Canadian national sprint coach, knew the polysyllabic names and complex characteristics of steroids -- furazabol, stanozolol, Dianabol -- as if they were members of his family. And although he spoke of his athletes as if they were family members, too, he made it plain, under oath, that he had given them every steroid combination imaginable, his experiments all carefully calibrated, charted and analyzed.; His system had worked remarkably. On Sept. 24, 1988, Francis' most famous pupil, Ben Johnson, who immigrated to Toronto from Jamaica as a scrawny 14-year-old, ran 100 meters in 9.79 seconds at the Olympics in Seoul, South Korea. The time was a world record and gave Johnson the gold medal, ahead of the defending champion, U.S. star Carl Lewis.; But the Francis system, like all systems, was not foolproof. "About 42 hours after my life's greatest moment," Francis writes on the first page of his confessional, "Speed Trap," his "nightmare began."; Johnson, the world's fastest man, had tested positive for illegal steroid use. Suddenly he was the world's fastest cheat. Millions of dollars worth of endorsements shriveled up. His gold medal was revoked, and his world record was, too.; Because Johnson was caught, the Canadians were embarrassed. Because they were embarrassed, they conducted a federal inquiry. Because they held an inquiry, Francis had to testify. And because of that testimony, we have "Speed Trap," an elaboration of what Francis said at the inquiry and a history of his remarkable path through the world of track and field.; He argues, essentially, that to be a world-class sprinter, you must use steroids -- he makes this argument even as Johnson attempts a comeback for the 1992 Olympic Games in Barcelona, Spain, without them.; Steroids do not make a runner run faster, Francis explains, but they enable a runner to train harder. The desire for speed comes with incredible costs, and they are the trap. By encouraging his athletes to use steroids -- and Francis maintains that they all wanted to do so and knew about steroids before the coach brought the subject up -- Francis argues that he is simply helping to create a level playing field.; We learn that the use of performance-enhancing drugs is nothing new in the world of sports -- that cocaine and arsenic and codeine were used by athletes in the 1896 Olympic Games. We learn that Johnson harmed his own world-record times by raising his hand jubilantly as he approached the finish line. We learn that if athletes take steroids on their own, independent of an official (but still illicit, of course) program, it's called "free-lancing." That's one of Francis' theories for why Johnson got caught.; But, Francis says, there is no logical reason for Johnson to have been caught. After all, he had never been caught before. No one of Johnson's standing had been caught before. Francis offers theories for the positive test result -- free-lancing, sabotage, a screw-up by the team doctor -- but there is no clear answer.; For all its candor, answers and revelations are not forthcoming in "Speed Trap." Francis, without naming names, convinces us that steroid usage is rampant, but he tells us what that means to him only in a technical sense. The book lacks a strong sense of character development. It does not take any moral stand; it lacks passion. How did Francis feel violating the rules? What drove him? What did he really feel toward Johnson?; After a two-year ban, Johnson is running again without Francis' coaching. The early word is that he is still extremely fast, probably one of the fastest men in the world -- but no longer the fastest. Francis would have us believe that without steroids, Johnson cannot be the fastest. (Johnson disagrees.); At the end of "Speed Trap," Francis says that steroids cannot be simply banned -- their use is too prevalent, they can be disguised too easily and they work too well. The dangers have been exaggerated, Francis says. People who want running to be a "natural" sport are naive. "We ceased being natural ages ago, the moment we stopped running barefoot on dirt paths," Francis writes. "It is a formidable challenge to distinguish between nature and artifice, a task I would leave to the philosophers."; But "Speed Trap" left me wishing Francis had at least tried his hand at philosophy. Isn't that everyone's responsibility? To ask why we do the things we do? "But I was a sprint coach, and I had a different job," he concludes. "To help a few gifted people run as fast as they could."; They ran fast, all right. But he never seems to have asked himself: Is it worth it? (box)

gold medal;charlie francis;world record;canadian national sprint coach;ben johnson;federal inquiry;performance-enhancing drugs;toronto;illegal steroid use;steroid combination;steroids

SJMN91-06105230

EARLY SPEED MAY TURN BOSTON MARATHON INTO RACE OF ATTRITION

And for the sentimentalists, there will be 83-year-old Johnny Kelley starting in his 60th Boston Marathon. There have only been 35 editions of this race run without him.; The last three Boston marathons have turned into reckless speed duels. They have produced five of the top 10 times and eight of the top 15 in the race's storied history.; They also have resulted in a race of attrition, with many of the early speedsters burning out completely or faltering in the late stages.; Along the historic route that begins in Hopkinton, west of Boston, and ends in Copley Square in the Back Bay section of the city, checkpoint records have fallen at an alarming rate.; For example, all 11 checkpoint records were shattered through the first 20 miles last year, either by Simon Robert Naali or Juma Ikangaa, both of Tanzania. Neither won.; The winner was 1988 Olympic champion Gelindo Bordin, who outsmarted the early pacesetters by running a patient, calculating race.; Running alone about 200 meters behind a pack of six Africans, Bordin passed them all by 21 miles and went on to win in 2 hours, 8 minutes, 19 seconds, the second-fastest time in the race's history, behind only the 2:07:51 by Rob de Castella in 1986.; Ikangaa finished a distant second in 2:09:52. It was his third consecutive runner-up finish in Boston.; Ikangaa is back again, along with several other formidable Africans. They include Ibrahim Hussein of Kenya, the 1988 winner in 2:08:43, the third-fastest time in Boston and one second ahead of Ikangaa; Abebe Mekonnen of Ethiopia, the 1989 champion in 2:09:06, Boston's eighth-best time; Douglas Wakiihuri of Kenya, the 1987 world champion and 1988 Olympic silver medalist who is making his Boston debut; and Naali, the third-place finisher in the 1990 Commonwealth Games.; Among those chasing them will be John Treacy, the 1984 Olympic silver medalist and the third-place finisher in Boston in 1988 and 1989; Geoff Smith, the Boston winner in 1984-85; Ed Eyestone, the top-ranked U.S. marathoner; Salvador Garcia, the runner-up to Wakiihuri in last year's New York City Marathon; and Rolando Vera, who finished third in his marathon debut in Boston in 1990.; The women's division also is filled with many respectable entrants.; Foremost among them are Kristiansen, the 35-year-old Norwegian who holds the world record of 2:21:06 and won in Boston in 1986 and 1989, and Samuelson, 33, the U.S.-record holder at 2:21:21, 1984 Olympic gold medalist and Boston champion in 1979 and 1983.; Challenging them will be Uta Pippig, Wanda Panfil and Kim Jones.; Pippig finished second in Boston last year in a career-best 2:28:03. Panfil won the London Marathon in 2:26:31, her personal best, and won the New York City Marathon in 1990.

alarming rate;checkpoint records;boston marathons;storied history;race run;60th boston marathon;respectable entrants

SJMN91-06129119

LET CITIZENS REVIEW COP CONDUCT

This was a real case involving a Santa Clara County police agency. I represented the suspect.; The offending officer's police report indicated that the suspect's injuries were due to a fall from his bike and that he appeared unconscious, although he had also struggled against being handcuffed.; There is no mention of police brutality. None of the back-up officers reported any brutality. One sergeant reported that the suspect kept trying to move around and had to be told to remain lying down. Another officer reported that the only verbal abuse was by the suspect toward officers.; The suspect subsequently complained of brutality. The internal affairs department determined that the complaint was unsubstantiated and the matter was dropped.; But four citizens called to complain that they had witnessed the arrest and that the suspect not only was not struggling but also had been brutally beaten.; According to the witnesses, the officer taunted the suspect, knelt on the suspect's stomach, beat him numerous times with his club and kicked him in his face.; The witnesses also said:; The suspect at no time resisted. The only words from the suspect were pleas for help. In response to another officer's inquiry, the original officer picked up the suspect, let his head fall to the pavement and said, "It looks like he's dead." Both officers smirked and laughed.; The offending officer was later arrested and prosecuted by the district attorney.; What if there had not been four citizens who observed the brutal beating of my client?; One of the problems in monitoring police brutality is that almost all victims of police abuse have themselves committed some kind of law violation. This makes their complaints difficult to sustain.; But there is another problem: a police discipline system that is cloaked in secrecy.; San Jose Police Chief Joseph MacNamara recently referred to the Los Angeles incident as "disgusting brutality" and pointed out that the disturbing aspect was the failure of leadership and the code of silence. MacNamara diagnosed the problem as an organizational attitude for which the leadership must take responsibility. He correctly notes that it is important for police credibility that police chiefs break the code of silence and repudiate such acts and attitudes.; Unfortunately, MacNamara also believes that San Jose does not need a citizens' review board. I respectfully disagree. That is precisely what we need. Communities often don't know the extent and the nature of police misconduct. State privacy laws combined with investigation and reporting procedures keep brutality complaints sealed.; This is bad public policy. Government must remain accountable to its citizens. Those government employees who are given the right and the power to use force against citizens should be the most accountable. As MacNamara points out, police are public servants. A minimal invasion of their privacy is a small price to pay for the power to maim and kill.; Monitoring police brutality is further complicated by the fact that local communities leave it to the police departments to investigate citizen complaints. Although the penal code makes the findings of investigations confidential, investigations themselves can be conducted by the public and can be open to the public.; Complaints of police brutality should be handled in an open process that is neutral and thorough. Having the fox guard the chicken house fails to provide that assurance.; The attitude of the public will determine the effectiveness of the police discipline system. A system can be theoretically sound, but it must be respected by the public.; I agree with Councilwoman Blanca Alvarado's suggestion and the San Jose City Council's decision to create a system where a city official will receive and track citizen complaints about the police. I would further recommend that local communities establish citizen review boards.; Police accountability includes the right of the public to review records of investigations of complaints. Any loss of police confidentiality is a fair and necessary trade-off for the right to carry and use a club. Or a .45.

brutality complaints;police abuse;injuries;santa clara;police brutality;police misconduct

SJMN91-06136305

CLASS COMBATS DIABETES FROM HISPANIC COOKING

Beginning this summer, Torres and other health professionals will be offering nutrition and exercise classes geared toward Hispanics in an effort to educate them on the dangers of diabetes.; According to state Health Department statistics, the incidence of diabetes in the Hispanic population is three times that of the general population. Health experts believe the Hispanic diet and genetic predisposition may be contributing factors.; "Our food is one of the richest in terms of taste and nutrition," said Torres. "But it's the way we prepare the food that messes things up for us."; In her classes, Torres said she will instruct her students to prepare tamales, refried beans and other traditional Hispanic dishes using polyunsaturated oil rather than the more traditional recipes that call for the use of lard. And instead of eating four tortillas at one sitting, she recommends they be eaten throughout the day.; Although courses for Hispanic diabetics and their families have been offered by the Diabetic Society for almost three years, lessons on the benefits of good nutrition and exercise to combat the disease will be offered for the first time.; Sue Ann Kelly, education director for the Diabetes Society, said the classes may be the first ones ever geared specifically toward the Hispanic lifestyle.; "It's a powerful feeling our educators get when they discover all the cultural issues that come in to play when dealing with diabetes," she said.; IF YOU'RE INTERESTED; The next course for Hispanic diabetics and their families will be 9 a.m. to noon Saturday at Alexian Brother's Hospital, 225 N. Jackson Ave. Registration will begin at 8:30 a.m. Classes are free. For more information, call (408) 287-3785. For those who can't make it to class, the Diabetes Society of Santa Clara County offers the bilingual booklet, "Comer Bien Para Vivir Mejor," a seven-day Mexican food menu for diabetics as well as those who want to eat healthy.

hispanic diabetics;hispanic diet;good nutrition;health professionals;diabetes society;education director;hispanic lifestyle

SJMN91-06142126

'TINDERBOX' WORSENS WORRY OVER WILDFIRES

"Right now the rains have caused everything to green up, but that can change in a few weeks," Lisa Boyd, a spokeswoman for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection in Sacramento, said Monday. "The state's really a tinderbox this year. Everyone's going to have to be extra careful."; In Santa Clara County, the conditions are not yet extreme; March storms probably delayed fire season until mid-June.; But the county's wild lands are littered with heavy fuel -- brush and trees -- killed by the drought or the December freeze.; "The late rains have given us a real good grass crop, the catalyst to ignite heavier fuels," said fire prevention officer Dick Mauldin at the forestry department's Morgan Hill ranger unit.; Particularly vulnerable are the eucalyptus groves that did not survive the freeze, Mauldin said. "Fires in there are going to be particularly hot, hard to put out," he said.; Statewide, according to the U.S. Forest Service, 10 percent of the trees in the 18 national forests have been killed by the drought or the insect infestations it spawned.; State forestry officials estimate 10 million trees -- Boyd called them "standing kindling" -- have died in California's wooded areas since the drought began.; California's worst fire year was 1987, when 900,000 acres burned. Summer weather will be the key to how severe this fire season is.; "If we get into a period of temperatures in the 90s and 100s and it stays that way for a week or so, there is some real potential for major fires," Mauldin said.; Firefighters are most concerned about rural areas of the South Bay and East Bay where people have built homes among heavy vegetation.; "We preach every year for homeowners to take precautions (such as clearing brush from around their houses), and a lot of people don't do it," Mauldin said. "They think 'it's never going to happen to me,' and when it does they start pointing fingers."; Mauldin said the Morgan Hill ranger unit will begin manning some of its seasonal stations Monday, begin hiring summer season firefighters June 3, and have all of the back-country stations opened by July 1.; The Morgan Hill unit covers parts of Santa Clara, Alameda, Contra Costa, Stanislaus, San Joaquin and Merced counties.; In Alameda and Contra Costa counties, officials also are bracing for a long, hot summer. "We don't want to say this is the worst fire season in X years, but we are gearing up for it," said Ned MacKay, spokesman for the East Bay Regional Park District. "We have to be prepared."; Statewide, the biggest fire threat looms in the chaparral-covered coastal mountains south of Santa Barbara, where the moisture content of trees and shrubs is the lowest ever recorded for this time of year, Boyd said.; "Every year the drought continues, the conditions get more explosive, but we can't say for sure what is going to happen this year," Boyd said.; Two of the forestry department's 22 ranger units -- both in Southern California -- are fully staffed for the fire season now, Boyd said, and all are expected to be ready by mid-June.; California doesn't face the fire threat alone.; Officials at the federal Boise Interagency Fire Center in Idaho, which coordinates firefighting efforts throughout the West, said parts of 11 states in the far West, and North Dakota and Minnesota, also face major fire danger this year.; Wildfire precautions; The California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection advises residents of rural areas to take special precautions to protect their homes from wildfires this summer:; (box)Clear at least a 30-foot defensible space of brush and dry grass around your house. On some properties, such as those on the ridge tops, the clear area should be as much as 100 feet wide. The break doesn't have to be bare dirt, but could be planted with fire-resistant vegetation.; (box)Remove all pine needles and leaves from your roof, eaves and rain gutters.; (box)Trim tree limbs within 10 feet of your chimney and trim all dead limbs hanging over your house or garage.; (box)Install a spark arrester on your chimney. They are available at hardware stores.; (box)Treat wood shingle roofs with fire retardant on a regular basis.; (box)Make sure there is adequate access for firefighters to get to your home, and ensure that neighborhood streets are clearly identified.; (box)Further information can be obtained from the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection's fire prevention unit in Morgan Hill, (408) 779-2121.; Source: California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection

heavy fuel;fire season;national forests;fire threat;wildfire precautions;firefighting efforts;fire protection;california department;fire prevention unit;u.s. forest service

SJMN91-06143070

GANDHI'S SLAYING IGNITES TURMOIL MILITARY PLACED ON 'RED ALERT'

India's military and paramilitary forces were put on "red alert" as gangs took to the streets of New Delhi and other cities, looking for scapegoats.; India's chief election commissioner, T.N. Seshan, early this morning postponed the remaining two phases of the national parliamentary elections until next month. He acted after consulting the president and the acting prime minister.; The first phase of the elections took place Monday, but voting for the remaining 60 percent of the 537 seats at stake will be June 12 and 15 instead of Thursday and Sunday.; Eyewitnesses at the assassination scene said Gandhi's body was ripped apart and decapitated by the force of the explosion. At least 14 other people, including a senior police officer, died in the blast.; Officials in New Delhi said the blast was caused by either a time bomb or remote-control device. A Congress Party spokesman said the bomb was hidden in a bouquet of flowers offered to Gandhi as he approached the dais for his speech.; It is not clear whether the bomb was thrown at Gandhi or whether he was handed flowers that contained explosives. He had been receiving bouquets and garlands all evening.; Gandhi recently had been shrugging off security guards.; There was no immediate indication who was responsible for the bomb, but speculation centered on Tamil separatists seeking an independent state in nearby Sri Lanka.; President Bush and other world leaders expressed horror and sadness at the slaying. "When you look at his contribution to international order and you think of his decency, it's a tragedy," Bush said in Washington.; End of dynasty; Gandhi's death marks the likely end of the political dynasty that has dominated Indian politics since independence in 1947. Analysts here said there is no obvious successor to him as leader of the Congress Party, which was founded by his grandfather, Jawaharlal Nehru, India's first prime minister, and later dominated by his mother, Indira Gandhi, who was prime minister when she was assassinated in 1984.; This morning, Gandhi's body was flown to a stunned New Delhi.; His widow, Sonia, sobbed and hugged the couple's daughter Priyanka as the women stepped down from the air force Boeing 737 that had flown them to Madras to bring Gandhi's body home.; Even before Gandhi's death, more than 150 people had died this week in violence connected to the election.; After the assassination, violent mobs rampaged along roads leading to Madras on Tuesday night, smashing vehicles and other property, according to Indian news agencies.; Government officials in New Delhi ordered all government offices, schools and colleges shut amid widespread fears that the assassination would touch off a wave of violence in a country that has endured a spate of riots during the past year, mainly over religious and caste conflicts.; Outside Gandhi's house in New Delhi on Tuesday night, hundreds of angry Congress Party workers chanted slogans against the CIA, accusing the U.S. intelligence agency of engineering the assassination. The CIA is often blamed by India's conspiracy-minded political activists for a wide variety of the country's ills.; Home ransacked; Some demonstrators in New Delhi set fire to the home of a political rival and attacked foreign camera operators. People broke into the house of Gandhi's neighbor, former Labor Minister Ram Vilas Paswan, and set furniture ablaze, police said.; Police fired shots in the air to drive away the angry, shouting crowd. There were no injuries.; Paswan, a member of the Janata Dal party, which defeated Gandhi's Congress Party in the 1989 general elections, was not home at the time.; Some shocked Indian political leaders told reporters they feared Rajiv Gandhi's assassination augured the death of India's four-decades-old democracy. But others, including leaders of the main rival to the Congress Party in this election, the Hindu revivalist Bharatiya Janata Party, denounced the killing and urged the country to remain calm in its aftermath.; "It's a tremendous loss to democracy," senior Congress leader Vasant Sathe told reporters. "The loss can never be made up." J.B. Patnaik, a powerful Congress politician in the eastern state of Orissa, said: "I don't know what is going to happen now, how democracy will survive."; At the site of the bomb blast in Tamil Nadu, there was no immediate evidence as to who was responsible.; Gandhi and his Congress Party have many enemies on the subcontinent, including violent separatists in Kashmir and Punjab, leftist revolutionaries and rightist Hindu militants.; Guerrillas suspected; Most of the early speculation, however, focused on Gandhi's most hardened opponents in Tamil Nadu, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, a disciplined and violent guerrilla force that has used Tamil Nadu as a base in its campaign to win a separate state in Sri Lanka, the island nation just off India's southeastern coast. The Tamil Tigers have assassinated dozens of political enemies in Sri Lanka and southern India, often using powerful plastic explosives set off by remote control.; Earlier this year, the state government of Tamil Nadu was dismissed and central rule imposed after allegations that local politicians were providing aid and protection to the Tamil Tigers. Gandhi, whose Congress Party provided the main backing to the New Delhi government at the time, was widely seen as being behind the dismissal, which angered the Tamil Tigers and their supporters in southern India.; During the current election, the Congress Party faced a brisk challenge from a leftist coalition led by former Prime Minister V.P. Singh, who denounced what he called Congress's "culture of corruption" and advocated divisive job set-asides for India's lower castes and religious minorities.; An even tougher test for the Congress -- and the centrist ideology that has held India together for four decades -- has been mounted by Hindu ultranationalists from the Bharatiya Janata Party, who denounced Gandhi for allegedly pandering to India's Muslim minority and directing too many government resources to religious and caste minorities in an effort to win votes.; Election in India: turmoil and tragedy; The Congress Party, which has dominated Indian politics since independence in 1947, is being challenged by a center-left coalition that wants to break down the caste system and a right-wing party that seeks a more openly Hindu, less secular India.; ...; Caste system; Hierarchical ranking of social groups rooted in Hindu religious beliefs that people are born with different intellectual and spiritual qualities and capabilities. Caste membership is a birth-given condition that remains unchangeable during a lifetime.

india;political dynasty;new delhi;gandhi;time bomb;blast;congress party;indian politics;assassination scene;national parliamentary elections

SJMN91-06161012

BEST SEATS ARE SOLD OUT FOR CELESTIAL SHOW

With some people having booked trips as long as three years in advance, airline seats, rental cars and hotel reservations range from difficult to impossible to get, travel agents and others report.; "The closer you get to the event, the less there is" available, said Paul Kloetzel, president of O'Brien Travel Service in San Jose. "It's an event, and it rarely, rarely happens. There is a certain element of traveler out there (and) there's an awful lot of those people."; The eclipse will be seen from Hawaii to central Brazil. If clouds don't spoil the show, viewers along that path will see the moon slip slowly in front of the sun. The sky will grow darker, as if dusk has fallen, until the sun is completely blocked out for a few minutes as the moon's shadow falls on the earth. Stars will shine.; The length of this "period of totality," as it's known, will depend on where viewers are along the path. The eclipse will last the longest -- six minutes and 58 seconds -- at the center of the shadow in the town of Tuxpan, on Mexico's west coast. In the Bay Area, the moon will cover about 55 percent of the sun's surface.; Among fans of the heavens, a solar eclipse inspires awe, fascination and grandeur. Firm estimates aren't available, but blotted-out-sun watchers are expected to number more than 100,000 -- perhaps 50,000 to 70,000 in Hawaii and an equal number in Baja.; "The effect of it -- the view of seeing the sun disappear little by little and then actually having the (blue) sky disappear and having the birds stop singing -- it's miraculous," said Irving Hochman, a member of the San Francisco Amateur Astronomers. "It really is the most spectacular natural phenomenon possible."; Bob Bruynesteyn, head of the San Mateo Astronomical Society, puts it succinctly: "Not too many people have stood in the shadow of the moon."; It's romantic images like these that are inspiring a last-minute surge of would-be eclipse-watchers, travel agents say.; Pamela and Daniel Dei Rossi of Campbell were among those scramblers. Learning of the eclipse only a month ago, they began calling travel agents. "But they basically said they wouldn't even try -- everything was booked," said Pamela Dei Rossi.; They called places where relatives had stayed in Mexico. No luck. She called a friend in Hawaii for a place to stay, but airline ticket and rental car problems still loomed. Then, good fortune struck. She called a travel agent who had taken a class with West Valley College astronomy instructor Tom Bullock. Bullock was leading a group to Hawaii, and some late cancellations came up. The Dei Rossis were in.; "We are so excited," Pamela Dei Rossi said. "We had given up."; Though travel arrangements are now tough to come by, some opportunities remain.; One is to go by the back door.; Hawaii and Baja are the prime spots, because -- statistically at least -- they offer the best chance of cloudless skies. But after enveloping the Big Island and then slicing across southern Baja, the moon's shadow will cross the Gulf of California and race across the southern flank of Mexico and down the west coast of Central America. Two of Mexico's biggest cities, Gaudalajara and Mexico City, lie in the path of totality. So does Mazatlan.; Puerto Vallarta, a resort city, is only a short distance away. Airline ticket availability is reported spotty for the resorts but still available for other destinations.; Another possibility is to search around for groups making the trip that have had late cancellations, as the Dei Rossis did.; What probably won't work is the overland route to Baja. From the border to the northern edge of where the eclipse will be total is about a 16-hour drive, said Raul Cardenas, the Mexican consul in San Jose. Mexican authorities will have a checkpoint from July 7-15 at Guerrero Negro, about halfway down the peninsula. Travelers who can't produce original documents showing they have accommodations will be turned back, Cardenas said. Those staying in private homes must also produce a letter of some kind, he said.; Even firm reservations may not be all they seem. Airlines routinely overbook seats, in expectation of no-shows. With the eclipse, there's concern the overbooking could be particularly bad, especially on inter-island flights in Hawaii. That's important because many eclipse-watchers haven't been able to book a flight directly to the Big Island. They've had to get flights into somewhere else, like Honolulu, and do a short hop to where they want to be.; "These flights are so overbooked it's actually a laughingstock," said O'Brien's Kloetzel. "I have a feeling this is going to be an ugly scene."; IF YOU'RE INTERESTED; An eight-page brochure on the July 11 eclipse is available for $2 from the Astronomical Society of the Pacific, 390 Ashton Ave., San Francisco, CA 94112. Special Mylar viewers for safely observing the eclipse are also available for another $2.

hawaii;total eclipse;eclipse-watchers;special mylar viewers;solar eclipse;mexico city

SJMN91-06169114

FLORIDA WAITING FOR A 'BIG ONE' TO COME FROM SEA

Newspaper headlines have documented Miami's subsequent hurricanes. The city was "Lashed" in '47, "Slammed" in '49 and "Pounded" in '50. The last to hit Miami was Cleo, a small one, in 1964, and the intervening period of calm defies all odds.; Many folks here worry about the "Big One" just as Californians worry about the Big Quake. What would one of those legendary storms of the past with 200 mph winds pushing huge tidal surges do to this low-lying metropolis on the Atlantic? No one is sure.; Hurricane season officially extends from June 1 through Nov. 30, and scientists at the National Hurricane Center, tucked away on the sixth floor of a nondescript office building in this Miami suburb, are perking up after another winter lull.; From now until the end of the season, the six hurricane specialists will monitor weather computers 24 hours a day. In this part of the world, technology has made obsolete such disasters as the unnamed hurricane that surprised Galveston, Texas, in 1900, killing 6,000 people.; The hurricane specialists use the nation's only working geostationary weather satellite to follow developing storms. When a disturbance becomes threatening, a specially equipped plane is sent into the storm's heart to measure barometric pressure, wind speed and temperature.; One of the specialists, Lixion Avila, has begun counting tropical waves that form off the coast of Africa every few days during hurricane season. About 60 of these waves of air, not water, form every year. About 20 of them intensify into stronger disturbances, ranging from tropical depressions, with wind speeds to 38 mph; to tropical storms, with winds from 39 to 73 mph; to hurricanes, with winds exceeding 74 mph.; Last year, 16 tropical depressions developed in the Atlantic. Fourteen became tropical storms, seven of which became hurricanes, fewer than usual.; People who venture into such dubious endeavors as long-term hurricane forecasting said this could be another light year. But, they said, a relatively quiet year does not guarantee a thing.; One such year was 1935 -- only six hurricanes formed, but one was the strongest to hit the continent. More than 800 workers, brought down to build the Overseas Highway through the Florida Keys, were killed when 200 mph winds knocked their evacuation train off the tracks.; NO MATTER what long-range forecasters say, scientists at the Hurricane Center know that the laws of probability are closing in on Miami. They are a conservative bunch, not given to Sunday-supplement scare stories. Miami has grown immensely since the last major storm and is greatly overdue, they said.; "Historically, south Florida has had more hurricanes than any other site," said Jerry Jarrell, a hurricane specialist eyeing Miami's 27-year hiatus nervously. "We would expect a major hurricane to hit within 75 miles of Miami every eight years."; At the center, scientists built a computer model to calculate what would happen if the 1926 hurricane were to hit Miami today. That storm was almost exactly the strength of Hurricane Hugo, which hit in South Carolina with 135 mph winds in September 1989. The scientists took data from Hugo and applied it to the path taken by the 1926 hurricane into Miami.; "It would be a totally different story here," said Max Mayfield, who collected photos from the 1926 storm to illustrate the model. "How many high-rises did they have on those barrier islands up in South Carolina? None. I think all these folks in their Miami Beach condos are going to be in for a rude awakening."; A worst-case storm, with winds topping 150 mph, would put 5 feet of water in Joe's Stone Crabs restaurant, a Miami Beach landmark, and 9 feet of water on Biscayne Boulevard in downtown Miami. Surging water could reach levels of 13 1/2 feet in low-lying areas south of Miami.; DESPITE MODERN technology, the specialists cannot forecast precisely where a hurricane will hit. Hurricanes change direction and intensify in a matter of hours and, in 24 hours, the specialists said, they could miscalculate one's track by 100 miles. This, and the number of years since the last major storm hit, has spawned a certain complacency among residents that the specialists find disturbing.; Mayfield went to Miami Beach recently to discuss his model with officials there, and what he heard worried him.; "The fire department did a survey, and 90 percent of the people they talked to said they wouldn't evacuate for a hurricane," Mayfield said. "That makes my hair stand straight up."

miami;tropical storms;tropical depressions;hurricane specialists;national hurricane center;hurricane season;long-term hurricane forecasting

SJMN91-06182091

ARMY GIVES ULTIMATUM TO SLOVENIA FEDERAL FORCES THREATEN ATTACK AS CEASE-FIRE AGREEMENT FALTERS

His statement, just a day after both sides agreed to a cease-fire, indicated that a plan to resolve the state's ethnic, political and economic disputes had gone off the rails less than 18 hours after it was accepted.; The ultimatum also appeared to confirm Slovenian fears that the army is acting outside government control in its effort to subjugate the secessionist republic. The independent television station Yutel quoted a federal official as saying the government did not approve of the military statement.; Earlier Saturday evening, Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic forced yet another delay in the election of Stipe Mesic, a Croat, as president of Yugoslavia.; Mesic election was key; Mesic's election was the political keystone in the peace plan, which also called for the federal troops in Slovenia to return to the barracks and for a three-month delay by the breakaway republics of Slovenia and Croatia in carrying out their independence declarations.; Slovenia refused Saturday night to send a representative to Belgrade for a meeting of the eight-member Yugoslav presidency. Such a meeting might have resolved the leadership vacuum in the federal government.; Preparations for hostilities were widespread.; The Tanjug news agency reported that 200,000 Serbs were expected to join a territorial militia in Serbia, the biggest Yugoslav republic, which opposes independence for Slovenia and Croatia, and Negovanovic said Croatia had ordered a mobilization of its "police" reserves.; Urgent legislative meeting; Slovenia's parliament was called into emergency session after a 12-point list of demands from the army was presented to republic leaders, insisting that all impediments to federal army operations be removed as part of a Western-brokered cease-fire.; The peace package was assembled by federal Prime Minister Ante Markovic, brokered by an emergency mission of the European Community and accepted by the leaders of Slovenia and Croatia, as well as Serbia.; But Saturday night Markovic charged that Slovenia's President Milan Kucan had "torpedoed" the plan by insisting that the moratorium on independence had to be approved by his parliament to take effect.; Condition upon condition; Milosevic, seizing on Kucan's statement, insisted that Serbia would not allow Mesic to become president in the normal rotation until the Slovenian and Croatian parliaments agreed to the moratorium.; The Slovenian government charged the army with repeated breaches of the cease-fire and demanded the surrender of army units and installations that Slovenian forces had surrounded and cut off since the fighting began Thursday.; At the end of the day, the maneuvering by all three republics ensured a prolongation of the crisis that has deprived the country of a civilian commander in chief for more than six weeks and effectively left the army to make its own moves.; Kucan all but ruled out the chances of negotiating the return of Slovenia to Yugoslavia.; 'No way back'; "There is no way back from Slovenian independence," he told reporters in Ljubljana. "I cannot foresee Slovenia becoming a part of Yugoslavia in a democratic way. The only possibility in this connection is her forced annexation."; The Yugoslav army appeared to be beefing up its military presence in Slovenia, sending additional tanks across Croatia toward Slovenia and dispatching two warships from Split, in Croatia, to the port of Koper, in Slovenia. The Slovenian defense forces continued efforts to recapture border posts and said they had several under their control.; Casualties mount; At least 40 people were killed in the first two days of fighting in Slovenia, including 20 federal army soldiers, four Slovenian fighters and 12 civilians, said Janez Jansa, the Slovenian defense minister. He estimated that the toll might actually be twice as high.; Ljubljana, the Slovenian capital, was an armed camp, where armed civilians and territorial guards stopped people at random and demanded identification cards. Driving across the republic, which is about the size of Maryland, was difficult because of checkpoints by territorial guards, barricades of trucks or the wrecks of Slovenian vehicles destroyed by Yugoslav government tanks.; Croatia digs in; The situation also seemed to be deteriorating in Croatia, which announced that it was halting all contributions to the central government and would send no more recruits to the federal army.; In Zagreb, the Croatian capital, federal military aircraft flew low, and federal garrisons stood on full alert. Croatian peasants, fearing a surprise attack, reportedly hid in the woods near the Slovenian border 50 miles north of the capital.; Croatian President Franjo Tudjman said his republic was not hoping for a fight but was ready if need be. "We do not want to cut all links with other republics," he said. "But if we are attacked, we will respond."; Austria and Hungary sent armored units to the Slovenian border, describing the action as precautionary.; The crisis evoked further expressions of anguish from foreign leaders, and for the first time a high-placed U.S. official hinted that the administration may be weighing the possibility of recognizing Croatia and Slovenia. "The president and the secretary (of state) have never said 'never,' " Deputy Secretary of State Lawrence Eagleburger said in a television interview.; The State Department said Saturday that U.S. dependents at its consulate in Zagreb, Croatia's capital, were being allowed to leave Yugoslavia. The only other U.S. diplomatic post in Yugoslavia is in Belgrade, the federal capital.; The State Department made the announcement a day after urging Americans in Slovenia and Croatia to leave as soon as they could and suggesting that Americans defer non-essential travel to Yugoslavia until the tensions subside.

federal troops;croatia;serbia;slovenian defense forces;yugoslav army;breakaway republics;western-brokered cease-fire;slovenian fears;yugoslav republic;independence declarations;federal army operations;slovenia;slovenian independence

SJMN91-06184003

BUSH PICKS CONSERVATIVE BLACK TO FILL MARSHALL'S SHOES ON COURT

But Thomas, who has risen in Republican ranks as an advocate of bootstrap conservatism, would present a striking change from Marshall, a civil-rights pioneer and an anchor of the court's declining liberal faction.; Thomas, barely half the age of the man whose seat he was named to fill, came of age in the world that Marshall helped create.; Now the question is to what extent Thomas would add weight to the court's new majority that appears willing to dismantle important parts of the legacy that Marshall helped to build.; While not much is known about Thomas' views on most issues likely to come before the court, he has made clear his opposition to affirmative action and to policies that can be viewed as incorporating quotas or racial preferences.; Opposes affirmative action; In his year as a federal appeals court judge, he has not ruled on affirmative action, but he has long been outspoken in taking the position that government affirmative-action programs are not only unwise but unconstitutional.; However, in other respects, this nomination is very much a wild card both for conservatives who jumped instantly to embrace it and for liberals whose responses ranged from cautious to hostile.; His views on other major issues before the court, including abortion, church-state relations and the definition of constitutional due process, are unknown. Those views may well remain unknown through a confirmation process that may be contentious but that in the end is not likely to derail the nomination.; Studied for priesthood; Thomas attended Roman Catholic schools through college and studied for the priesthood. Although the Catholic Church vigorously opposes abortion, Thomas has apparently never taken a public position on abortion or on the dimensions of the constitutional right to privacy, on which the right to abortion was based.; His position on affirmative action is probably sufficient to shift the court's direction since the court remains closely divided.; "My opposition to preferences and quotas not only is a constitutional, legal opposition, it has been a moral, ethical opposition," he said five years ago at a conference sponsored by the Anti-Defamation League of B'nai B'rith.; In its most recent affirmative-action decision, a year ago, the court split 5-4 in upholding a Federal Communications Commission policy that gives preference to blacks and members of other minorities in acquiring some radio and television licenses.; Justice William Brennan wrote that decision a few weeks before he retired from the court. Marshall joined it. The views of Justice David Souter, Brennan's successor, remain largely unknown.; Views on big issues unknown; Thomas' views on the other major issues remain unknown, although the 1990 confirmation hearing for his seat on the Court of Appeals was widely viewed on Capitol Hill and in ideological interest groups as a rehearsal for a Supreme Court nomination.; Some Democratic senators said at the time and again Monday that their votes to confirm him for the appeals court should not be taken as endorsements for the Supreme Court.; Three years ago, the Senate denied confirmation to Judge Robert Bork despite having voted to confirm him only a few years earlier to the same court on which Thomas now sits.; Leaders of abortion rights groups said Monday that they would press the Senate to deny confirmation to Thomas unless he expresses his support for the Supreme Court's abortion precedents, including continued adherence to Roe vs. Wade, the 1973 ruling that established the constitutional right to abortion.; Abortion faction speaks out; "The Souter model of silence and evasion that we saw last year is absolutely unacceptable," said Kate Michelman, executive director of the National Abortion Rights Action League.; Her reference was to Souter's confirmation hearing last September, during which the nominee gracefully but firmly deflected questions on abortion.; Sen. Howard Metzenbaum, an Ohio Democrat who serves on the Judiciary Committee, endorsed Michelman's position.; "I'm through reading tea leaves and voting in the dark," he said.; But the Judiciary Committee includes some of the most conservative Democrats in the Senate as well several combative Republican conservatives. If Thomas maintains his silence, his nomination is unlikely to founder on the abortion issue alone.; Rights groups cautious; Civil rights groups took a cautious tone Monday, essentially noting "concerns" and saying they would study the record.; "We urge the Senate not to rush to judgment," said a statement from a Leadership Conference on Civil Rights, an umbrella group of 185 organizations that took an early and leading role in the defeat of the Bork nomination.; Introducing his nominee to the country at a televised news conference Monday, Bush drew on the powerful appeal of Thomas' life story as a self-motivated and self-made success.; "Judge Thomas' life is a model for all Americans," Bush said.; At his side stood a black man who was 5 years old when Marshall won his Supreme Court argument in Brown vs. the Board of Education and who was a college freshman when Marshall joined the Supreme Court.; That was a generation ago, when the court was still rewriting the ground rules by which Americans were to live their lives. Well before Bush presented Thomas to the country Monday, it was clear that that chapter in the court's history is largely closed and that a new page was about to be turned. After Monday's nomination, some -- but by no means all -- of the blanks on that page have been filled in.; CLARENCE THOMAS; Born: June 23, 1948, in Pinpoint, Ga.; Education: B.A. from Holy Cross College, 1971; J.D. from Yale Law School, 1974.; Career:; (box) 1974-'77: assistant attorney general, state of Missouri; (box) 1977-'79: attorney, Monsanto Co.; (box) 1979-'81: legislative assistant to Sen. John Danforth, R-Mo.; (box) 1981-'82: assistant secretary for civil rights, Education Department; (box) 1982-'90: chairman of the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission; (box) 1990-: U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals for District of Columbia; Source: Who's Who Among Black Americans; WHAT'S NEXT?; Now that President Bush has nominated Clarence Thomas to the Supreme Court, the next step is up to the Senate.; (box)The Senate Judiciary Committee is expected to begin confirmation hearings in September, after the August recess.; (box)After the committee makes a recommendation, the nomination will be voted on by the full Senate.; (box)If confirmed promptly, Thomas could be on the Supreme Court by the time it begins hearing cases in October.; Source: Mercury News Wire Services

thurgood marshall;nomination;clarence thomas;racial preferences;second black;affirmative action;supreme court

SJMN91-06184021

GRANDPARENTS MOLDED JUDGE NOMINEE GOES FROM POVERTY TO HIGH COURT

Thomas and his brother made it in the white world. Their sister, reared by an aunt, had four children and went on welfare.; Thomas, 43, credits everything he has achieved to his grandparents. He choked up twice on national television Monday when he mentioned them. In a hostile world, they taught him to rely on himself. They shaped his views on individualism, race and society, views that guide him today.; "I was raised to survive under the totalitarianism of segregation," Thomas wrote in a paper for the Heritage Foundation, a conservative public policy institute in Washington. "We were raised to survive in spite of the dark, oppressive cloud of governmentally sanctioned bigotry.; Self-sufficiency, security; "Self-sufficiency and spiritual and emotional security were our tools to carve out and secure freedom," he added. "Those who attempt to capture the daily counseling, oversight, common sense and vision of my grandparents in a governmental program are engaging in sheer folly."; The very beliefs that have brought Thomas to the steps of the U.S. Supreme Court make him suspect to black political activists, veterans of the struggle to make government accountable for the wrongs done to blacks.; Yet as Washington Post journalist Juan Williams has pointed out, Thomas is firmly grounded in the black intellectual tradition of Booker T. Washington, who advocated education, self-reliance and mutual support as the principal means of advancement.; Clarence Thomas was born June 23, 1948, in Pinpoint, Ga., a town in the marshes near Savannah. His mother, Leola, 18 at the time, lived in a house that had no plumbing.; Before Thomas' second birthday, his father moved to the North and left the family behind. His mother remarried, and her second husband did not want the children of her first marriage.; Taken in by grandparents; At age 7, Thomas was sent to live with his grandparents. His grandfather, Myers Anderson, had little formal schooling. But life had taught him a lot.; "He could barely read and write -- read enough to read the Bible," Thomas said in a 1983 interview with the Washington Post. "But he was a tough old man."; He elaborated in the Heritage Foundation paper: "Of course, I thought my grandparents were too rigid and their expectations were too high. I also thought they were mean at times. . . . The most compassionate thing they did for us was teach us how to fend for ourselves in a hostile environment."; But the world that lay beyond the confines of poverty and segregation was not totally closed to Thomas. His grandfather, a Catholic, enrolled him in an all-black school run by the church. On Monday, Thomas also made sure to thank "the nuns."; As a young man, he wanted to become a priest. In 1967, he was accepted at the all-white Immaculate Conception Seminary in Conception Junction, Mo. He was in for a shock. Other seminarians referred to him as the "black spot on a white horse." Disgusted, he left at the end of his first year.; Flirts with 'black power'; Thomas went on to attend Holy Cross College in Worcester, Mass. In the 1960s, he flirted with the politics of "black power" and considered himself a follower of Malcolm X. But his true interest was in the law. He received his law degree from Yale University in 1974.; As a young lawyer, Thomas worked in the office of Missouri Attorney General John C. Danforth. He later joined Monsanto Co.; Thomas' introduction to Washington came in 1979. By then, Danforth was a Republican senator. Thomas, a former Democrat, joined his staff as a legislative assistant.; In 1982, after a year as assistant education secretary for civil rights, Thomas was named by President Reagan to lead the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission.; His tenure at the commission, which investigates discrimination complaints, was controversial. Critics said the agency went soft under Thomas. Abandoning support for hiring goals and timetables, Thomas focused on resolving thousands of individual discrimination complaints. He took credit for improving efficiency.; When President Bush nominated Thomas to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia, a steppingstone to the Supreme Court, a contentious confirmation process was forecast. But the hearings went smoothly, perhaps because Thomas was never among the Reagan administration's most outspoken critics of civil rights. He took his seat on the appeals court in March 1990.; Thomas, who lives in suburban Virginia, is married and has a son.; "In my view," he said of his life Monday, "only in America could this have been possible."

u.s. supreme court;grandparents;black power;discipline;clarence thomas;hard work

SJMN91-06184088

THOMAS FACES TOUGH SCRUTINY DEMOS WANT ANSWERS ON THE DIVISIVE ISSUES

But Sen. Howard Metzenbaum, D-Ohio, said the Senate Judiciary Committee, in confirming four justices without learning how they felt about abortion, has "given them a free ride" and should be tougher in ferreting out Thomas' views.; "The failure to give an answer may cause me and others to be unwilling to vote for his confirmation," Metzenbaum said on "CBS This Morning."; Sen. Arlen Specter, R-Pa., noted that Metzenbaum did not press Justice David Souter during confirmation hearings about his position on abortion. "I do not think it is appropriate to ask a nominee the ultimate question as to how he is going to decide a specific case," Specter said.; "I will not support yet another Reagan-Bush Supreme Court nominee who remains silent on a woman's right to choose, and then ascends to the court to weaken that right," said Metzenbaum, the only member of the Judiciary Committee who voted against Thomas' nomination to the Circuit Court of Appeals to the District of Columbia.; Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, said on NBC's "Today" show that "literally nobody nominated for the Supreme Court should give his or her views with regard to cases that might come up in the future."; But Sen. Patrick Leahy, D-Vt., said "in the past few months alone the Supreme Court is throwing out past decisions, and I think it is legitimate to ask Judge Thomas, what do you think of settled law, like Roe vs. Wade (legitimatizing abortion), what do you think of a woman's right to privacy, free speech issues, issues of freedom of religion."; Civil rights groups have opposed Thomas on grounds he was insensitive to the concerns of minorities and the elderly as chairman of the federal Equal Employment Opportunities Commission in the 1980s.; "The fact that he is an African-American should not be a basis for avoiding very careful scrutiny of his civil rights record," said Julius L. Chambers, director of the NAACP Legal Defense and Education Fund.; While some Democrats immediately blasted the nomination, the party's biggest guns held their fire.; Judiciary Committee Chairman Joseph Biden, D-Del.; Senate Majority Leader George Mitchell, D-Maine; and Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, D-Mass., all promised a thorough review of the nomination.; Confirmation hearings are expected to begin after Congress' August recess.; Thomas, 43, would strengthen the 6-3 conservative majority on the nine member court. An unabashed conservative, he would succeed the court's leading liberal -- and first and only black justice.; Bush rejected suggestions that he chose Thomas because he wanted to keep a black in that seat.; "I kept my word to the American people and to the Senate by picking the best man for the job on the merits. And the fact he's minority, so much the better," Bush said at a news conference outside his vacation home in Kennebunkport, Maine.; Potential opponents of the nominee promised in their statements to ignore Thomas' race when they examine his record.; "The background of Judge Clarence Thomas is less important than his views and what they mean to protecting our constitutional rights," said Sen. Paul Simon, D-Ill.; When head of the EEOC during the Reagan administration, Thomas "seemed to go out of his way to find ways to weaken some of the basic civil rights protections," said Simon, a member of the Senate Judiciary Committee.; On a number of occasions Thomas has expressed objections to racial quotas. In a 1985 statement, Thomas said, "Federal enforcement agencies . . . turned the statutes on their heads by requiring discrimination in the form of hiring and promotion quotas, so-called goals and timetables."; In a 1987 article for the Yale Law & Policy Review he referred to affirmative action as "social engineering."; "I don't want my vote to contribute to an increasingly large and conservative anti-choice majority on the Supreme Court," said Sen. Alan Cranston, D-Calif.; Thomas said he looked forward to the confirmation process "and to be an example to those who are where I was, and to show them that, indeed, there is hope."; Thomas declined to answer questions about his legal views until his hearings.; WHAT'S NEXT?; Now that President Bush has nominated Clarence Thomas to the Supreme Court, the next step is up to the Senate.; (box)The Senate Judiciary Committee is expected to begin confirmation hearings in September, after the August recess.; (box)After the committee makes a recommendation, the nomination will be voted on by the full Senate.; (box)If confirmed promptly, Thomas could be on the Supreme Court by the time it begins hearing cases in October.; Source: Mercury News Wire Services; CLARENCE THOMAS; Born: June 23, 1948, in Pinpoint, Ga.; Education: B.A. from Holy Cross College, 1971; J.D. from Yale Law School, 1974.; Career:; (box) 1974-'77: assistant attorney general, state of Missouri; (box) 1977-'79: attorney, Monsanto Co.; (box) 1979-'81: legislative assistant to Sen. John Danforth, R-Mo.; (box) 1981-'82: assistant secretary for civil rights, Education Department; (box) 1982-'90: chairman of the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission; (box) 1990-: U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals for District of Columbia; Source: Who's Who Among Black Americans

conservative majority;circuit court;black justice;columbia;clarence thomas;supreme court nomination;senate judiciary committee;confirmation hearings

SJMN91-06187248

CLARENCE THOMAS' TRIAL BY FIRE FROM A CRUCIBLE OF POVERTY, A CONSERVATIVE IS FORMED

There, in the segregated black Georgia of four decades past, began the toughening of Clarence Thomas, nominee to the United States Supreme Court.; Abandoned by his father, driven by his hard-eyed grandfather and a band of nuns sent south to teach black children, young Clarence learned sharecropping and scholarship, hard labor and the Latin mass, and how to survive the walk home through black Savannah in his Catholic school uniform.; From these roots, he might have become one of any number of bright, activist black men to rise out of Southern poverty and press a politically aggressive liberal agenda of civil rights and affirmative action -- as did men like Thurgood Marshall, the retiring justice whose Supreme Court seat Thomas might take.; Instead, Thomas, now 43, became something else -- a hybrid product of harsh Southern history and baby-boom ambition, a proponent of personal strength over dependence, of individualism over government activism.; By the time he arrived in Washington with the Reagan administration, he had developed into a rare breed -- a black conservative so impressive to Republican presidents that he was set on the road to the highest court in the land. But he was so disturbing to traditional liberals that they are eager to deprive him of Senate confirmation in September.; Historically, trying to predict Supreme Court nominees has been extremely risky. Still, many liberals are convinced that Thomas' past clearly shows his future. He would, they say, oppose abortion rights, school busing plans and affirmative action programs. He would also weaken the wall separating government and religion and further restrict the rights of criminal suspects and defendants.; Not surprisingly, Thomas' many friends and supporters draw different conclusions. They see him as an independent spirit, a probable centrist on a court that has been steering rightward for several years.; The Georgia beginning; But any attempt to understand the potential successor to the revered Thurgood Marshall must begin in Georgia.; There, just the other day, Leola Williams, Thomas' mother, talked about how the force of family worked on her son:; "Clarence was surrounded by all our older parents. He saw how our family and other people struggled to make a living.; "I guess Clarence wanted to prove to himself he could be what he wanted to be -- and prove to his grandfather he could be the kind of person (his grandfather) wanted him to be."; The grandfather, the late Myers Anderson, began training Thomas in earnest when the boy was 9 and Leola Williams' life suddenly began coming apart. Her house off Pin Point Avenue had gone up in smoke, and some months later, her husband went north to Philadelphia, leaving her with two young children and a third on the way.; Williams took her daughter, Emma Mae, and moved in with an aunt while she awaited the birth of her second son, Myers. Clarence went to live with his grandparents in Savannah, to help with Anderson's year-round oil and ice delivery business.; His grandfather proved to be a profound force in Thomas' life -- a mentor, a role model, an unrelenting taskmaster and the embodiment of a personal philosophy that Thomas once recalled this way:; "He used to tell me that there was no problem that elbow grease couldn't solve. Then he'd say, 'Old Man Can't is dead. I helped bury him.' "; When Anderson wasn't coaching Thomas, in his farm fields or on his delivery truck, he made sure the lessons continued, in the hands of the Franciscan nuns of all-black St. Benedict the Moor School.; Thomas, who had experienced racial mistreatment by white seminarians in Georgia, ultimately rejected seminary life. He has identified an episode at Immaculate Conception Seminary in Conception, Mo., in 1968 as the final humiliation. He said he heard a seminarian there react to the shooting of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. by saying, "Good, I hope the son of a bitch dies."; Thomas left the seminary and went north to enroll at Holy Cross College in the gritty New England factory city of Worcester, Mass.; A Southerner in New England; The Southern farm boy was forced to endure not only the harsh winters of New England, but also the chilly atmosphere of a white college just beginning to widen opportunities for blacks.; Within days of King's assassination, the school created a scholarship fund named after the civil-rights leader and stepped up the recruiting of blacks. And so Thomas, who was driven from the Missouri seminary by racism, became one of the beneficiaries of an effort to combat it.; Thomas, who paid for his college education with loans, jobs and the newly raised scholarship funds, soon was drawn into the turbulence of Vietnam War and "black power" politics.; He helped found a Black Student Union, writing and typing its constitution. In December 1969, he and other black students resigned to protest the suspensions of black students who had blocked a General Electric recruiter on campus. Stung, school officials granted a blanket amnesty and the students returned.; Thomas went on to run track and write for the campus newspaper. He graduated from Holy Cross with honors and left for Yale University Law School in New Haven, Conn.; Freewheeling liberalism; "He came into law school espousing liberal views from his freewheeling, unattached undergraduate days," said Harry Singleton, a black classmate, close friend and a former civil rights official in the Reagan Education Department.; "But he became more conservative as he went through the process of legal education."; Yale law students, Singleton explained, were exposed to conservative law professors with powerful minds.; "I used to discuss conservative ideas with Clarence and he was interested in them," Singleton said. "They were about the dangers of big government trying to solve all the ills of society and how every time you do that you take away from the liberties of the people."; But it was Thomas Sowell, the conservative black economist now at Stanford University's Hoover Institution, whose work came to grip Thomas' mind.; Shortly after his arrival at Yale, Thomas remembered when someone gave him one of Sowell's books and "I threw it in the trash" because "it really went against all the things we'd been indoctrinated to believe about the radical movement and the peace movement."; But after law school, Thomas rediscovered one of Sowell's books. Sowell's provocative 1983 work, "The Economics and Politics of Race," was "manna from heaven," Thomas said.; In that book, Sowell, arguing from a laissez-faire perspective, endorsed the notion that blacks would benefit more from pursuing economic achievement than political agitation.; From Yale to Washington; Thomas, always a top student, was recruited out of Yale in 1974 by John Danforth, R-Mo., then Missouri attorney general, a Yale trustee and a frequent campus visitor. Danforth brought Thomas to Jefferson City, Mo., to work in the attorney general's office.; When Danforth became a U.S. senator in 1977, Thomas stayed in St. Louis to work as an assistant counsel for the Monsanto Corp., then in 1979 joined Danforth in Washington as a legislative aide.; Reagan administration officials were so impressed by Thomas and his new conservative leanings that they appointed him assistant secretary for civil rights in the Department of Education. In 1982, they promoted him to the more visible post of chairman of the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission. There controversy dogged him for the next eight years.; Congress learned in 1989 that the EEOC under Thomas' direction had permitted more than 13,000 age discrimination claims to lapse.; Civil-rights groups accused Thomas of failing to enforce other anti-discrimination laws as well, and of retaliating against employees who disagreed with his policies.; Thomas concentrated on winning relief for victims of actual discrimination. He steered away from lawsuits based on statistical evidence and remedies that included timetables for future hiring.; But he was unwilling to go along with more strident voices in the Reagan administration who opposed most legal remedies for discrimination, so he often felt isolated from both the administration and the civil rights establishment.; Several years ago, a top Reagan domestic adviser who wanted his coffee cup refilled at a black-tie dinner looked up and spotted a black man in a tuxedo hovering near the table. Holding the cup aloft, the official asked for more coffee. The black man reached past the cup to shake hands and said evenly: "Perhaps we haven't met. I'm Clarence Thomas.";

supreme court nominees;u.s. court;black conservative;thomas sowell;clarence thomas;hard-eyed grandfather;affirmative action programs;senate confirmation

SJMN91-06189077

SKY-WATCHERS CHASING A SHADOW HAWAIIAN, MEXICAN ECLIPSE ZONES BRACE FOR ASTRONOMICAL CROWDS

While Angel and his followers meditate to prepare for their journey, French New Age musician Jean-Michel Jarre is coordinating an elaborate sound-and-light show to play at the foot of the pyramids in Teotihuacan, north of the capital.; Also on E-day, July 11, crowded cruise ships will linger off Mexico's Pacific Coast, and thousands of U.S. tourists will drive south into Baja California, which, usually boasting clear skies, is being billed as the world's most promising site from which to view nature's own light show.; Eclipse fans from Japan to New York to the Netherlands are expected in droves, but Californians -- because of their proximity to Baja and propensity for mystical phenomena -- should be conspicuous.; However, the chic hot spot for eclipse watchers won't be Mexico, but the big island of Hawaii, where the 18,000 tourists who would be there anyway to enjoy the sunshine will be joined by an additional 30,000 or more coming to watch the sun go out for four minutes.; Even more people might be there for the show, but for the lack of seats on flights to the island. Most visitors will be funneled in through the relatively small airport at Kailua.; Airlines are adding scores of flights to ferry thousands of people from neighboring islands in the hours just before the eclipse.; Car rental companies have shipped in 3,000 or so extra cars.; More than one caller from the mainland has asked the visitors' bureau whether the island is in danger of tipping over under the tourists' weight.; But Mexico will host the biggest share of travelers, partly because of its easy access from the United States and partly since the eclipse will last longest here: up to seven minutes, which is three more minutes than the maximum length in Hawaii. This will also be the longest-lasting total eclipse until 2132, according to Alan Dyer, an associate editor at Astronomy magazine.; The midday eclipse will consist of a 160-mile wide lunar shadow speeding at up to 5,000 miles per hour along the Earth's surface.; While many Mexicans are looking forward to the event, some are quietly taking precautions. In pre-Colombian times, eclipses were viewed as bad omens by the sun-worshiping Aztecs.; In the capital's Sonora market, specializing in magic, vendors have stocked up on garlic bulbs tied with red ribbon, which they hawk as protection from "the bad vibrations of the eclipse." A thriving trade is also taking place in magnets, for those with low blood pressure to carry in their pockets on July 11, and old copper coins for pregnant women to place as charms in their belly buttons.; As in Hawaii, Mexico could probably use some otherworldly intervention to cope with the scores of thousands of tourists who have already started arriving.; In the southern half of the Baja Peninsula, some hotels have had rooms reserved for more than a year. All are now booked up, and authorities fear competition at campsites.; "We're worried that Californians will drive down on the spur of the moment, without taking water or fuel," said Marivi Lerdo, who promotes tourism to Mexico in New York.; Although Hawaii's isolation will limit the size of the crowds, locals are still predicting problems. "By God, there's just one road on this island," a circle route that often narrows to two lanes, one shop owner said. "It's going to be total insanity."; "We're worrying that we won't have enough alcohol and food on the island," said the manager of a local restaurant and disco called The Eclipse, named by coincidence 10 years ago.; While authorities fret over infrastructure capacity, many Californians are preparing to revel in a New Age wonderland.; "These are people who have never, ever, missed a single episode of 'Star Trek,' " said Ken Stewart, who is planning to lead a caravan of 50 enthusiasts from San Diego to Cabo San Lucas, on the south tip of Baja.; Mexico's government is heavily involved in eclipse planning, having formed an Intersecretarial Commission for the Eclipse, which, among other things, is supposed to oversee production of as many as 60 million protective lenses. Newspapers here are carrying frequent reminders not to stare directly at the sun.; During the eclipse, the mystic and the scientific will not be far apart.; At six observatories atop Hawaii's Mauna Kea, a dormant volcano that is the highest peak in the Pacific, solar researchers will turn their telescopes on the sun's outer atmosphere as the moon covers the rest of the star.; Twenty miles downhill, at The Crystal Grotto in Honomu, Wendy Gilliam is selling pouches of three stones called corona crystals and advising people to "expose them to the energy" during the eclipse. "As the moon passes over the sun, there are certain power vortexes here that are going to be opened up and awakened," she said.; DON'T LOOK DIRECTLY AT IT; (box) If you want to watch the moon's progress across the sun: Don't look at it. Staring at the sun during a partial eclipse could quickly -- without your feeling a thing -- burn into your retina a permanent image of the crescent sun, causing severe and permanent vision loss.; (box) It's safest to watch the eclipse indirectly by projecting the sun's image through a pinhole and onto a sheet of white paper.; (box) Other safe methods: (check) Pieces of arc-welders' glass labeled 14 and available at welding supply stores. Most welders' goggles are not suitable protection. (check) Two or three layers of Mylar plastic heavily coated with aluminum. Some stores are selling "eclipse glasses" made with this material.; COMING TUESDAY IN SCIENCE & MEDICINE; (box) All the details about Thursday's eclipse, one of nature's most stunning events.; (box) How to watch it, including directions for a pinhole projector.

mexico;sun;tourism;hawaii;total eclipse;visitors;eye damage;eclipse fans

SJMN91-06191081

L.A. PANEL LETS GATES OFF RACISM, NOT CHIEF, IS FOCUS

A source speaking on the condition of anonymity said the panel report did not focus on Gates -- who said he would resign if the commission agreed with his critics that he created a climate within the department that condoned racism and brutality.; The report "deals with management issues, not directly with the chief of police," the source said.; Commission members and others who had seen the report declined comment Monday. Gates also wouldn't comment.; Mayor Tom Bradley, who has asked Gates to step down, said through a spokesman he believed the report focused on police management, excessive force and civilian control.; Sources familiar with testimony and evidence presented to the panel told the Los Angeles Times that a number of racially derogatory messages sent on police car computer terminals have been cataloged.; One message, for which no context was provided, read: "It's monkey slapping time."; The commission examined 90,000 pages of computer messages and found examples of racially and sexually "offensive" remarks scattered throughout. In one section encompassing several thousand messages, 260 such remarks were discovered, one source said.; In the days after the March 3 nightstick beating of Rodney G. King, the Police Department released transcripts of computer messages that one of the officers at the scene sent to a another officer. The transcripts contained a reference to an earlier incident involving black people, using the phrase "gorillas in the mist."; At the same time, secret testimony by as many as a dozen black police officers told of numerous instances of racial harassment within the ranks and the existence of a double standard in the treatment of minority suspects.; In one instance, officers said they found racial epithets spray-painted on the lockers inside police stations and concluded that other officers had put them there. In another, an officer testified behind closed doors that he was present when a caravan of patrol cars raced through a housing project with "Ride of the Valkyries" blaring from loudspeakers -- a scene reminiscent of the movie "Apocalypse Now."; The officers testified before the commission after being assured that their identities would be kept confidential.; The American Civil Liberties Union and other groups called for Gates to resign after the March 3 incident in which white police officers repeatedly struck King with batons, kicked him and shocked him with a stun gun after pulling him over for speeding. King, 26, is black.; A bystander's videotape of the beating prompted a federal investigation of police brutality. Four officers were charged in the case.; The commission, appointed by Gates and Bradley, held five public hearings, interviewed city leaders and reviewed more than 1 million pages of documents during its three-month investigation. It was headed by former Deputy Secretary of State Warren Christopher.; Gates was appointed by the Police Commission and cannot be fired by the mayor. The Police Commission consists of five civilians appointed by the mayor.; The chief has civil-service protection and can be removed only by the Police Commission for misconduct.; Geoffrey Taylor Gibbs, who sits on the board of John M. Langston Bar Association, which represents about 900 African American lawyers, said black and Latino neighborhoods are depending on the commission to confirm their view that the white, male-dominated Police Department has subjected them to years of brutality and ignored their complaints.; "People are looking to the commission," said Gibbs. "If they don't say this is a problem, then all of their recommendations won't mean a thing."; But Ramona Ripston, head of the Los Angeles ACLU, said it does not matter whether the report names Gates.; "If they find a series of things the matter with the department," she said, "don't you think it's going to point a finger at Gates whether they name him or not?"

investigation;racism;white police officers;excessive force;minority suspects;police brutality

SJMN91-06191174

LIGHTS OUT! ECLIPSE WILL DIM DAYLIGHT HERE, LEAVE OTHERS IN THE DARK

"It's maybe the greatest natural occurrence one can witness," said Larry Toy, a Chabot College astronomy professor. "The phenomenon is just awe-inspiring."; Solar eclipses occur twice a year, when the sun, moon and earth line up. (This line-up would occur at every new moon, except that the moon's orbit is tilted so it only crosses the sun's path every six months.); Because of variations in the moon's orbit, fewer than a third of the solar eclipses are total eclipses. In these cases the moon's shadow, up to 200 miles wide on the earth's surface, races west to east along the ground at 1,000 to 5,000 miles per hour for a few thousand miles.; Most total eclipses get little public attention. They occur over water, over the poles or in difficult-to-reach terrain. On average, any point on Earth is eclipsed just once every 360 years.; But when the shadow's narrow path does cross inhabited areas, people flock there to experience "totality" -- to watch the light snap off and the stars snap on, and to gaze at the sun's shaggy corona hanging in the dark sky for a few minutes before daylight abruptly returns.; In the United States, the opportunity has come twice in the past couple of decades -- along the East Coast in 1970 and across the Northwest and Northern Plains in 1979.; This Thursday the moon's shadow will be back for another performance, one of the century's best.; It's unusual for several reasons. At its peak, observers will see one of the longest-lasting eclipses this century -- six minutes, 53 seconds. Also, its 150-mile-wide path across Hawaii, Baja California, Mexico City and four Central American capital cities "puts more people in the moon's shadow than any other eclipse in history," says Alan Dyer, an editor of Astronomy magazine.; Finally, since the center of the shadow will pass right across the world's largest cluster of astronomical observatories, the audience will include several dozen solar scientists intent on getting the best view they've ever had.; "It's going to be great from up there on the mountain," said Harold Zirin, a California Institute of Technology astronomer who will be at one of the observatories atop Mauna Kea, a dormant volcano that makes up a large piece of the island of Hawaii.; Historic events; For science, two eclipses have proved especially historic: In 1868, spectroscopic study of the sun's halo turned up evidence of a new element, which was named helium, from Helios, the Greek sun god. And in 1919, astronomers spotted a star, which should have been behind the sun, instead peeking around the edge of the sun. That was the first confirmation of Albert Einstein's prediction that a star's gravity will bend the path of light.; But in recent years solar eclipses have declined in significance for researchers.; For one thing, chasing eclipses by trekking to remote regions with delicate astronomical instruments to capture a few minutes of data has lost much of its glamour, especially in times of tight budgets.; For another, some of the information now can be gathered any day of the year by using instruments that simulate a solar eclipse.; But this time, the eclipse is coming to them, and they can't resist a look. At 13,800 feet, Mauna Kea is the world's tallest island mountain. The air above it is still, dry and clean, making it one of the world's choicest spots for viewing the cosmos.; It's so high that oxygen deprivation is a serious concern. And, unlike most people headed for Hawaii, astronomers will be packing long underwear and down jackets in case, as sometimes happens even in July, the temperature at the summit drops below freezing.; 7 observatories in use; Seven of the nine observatories atop Mauna Kea will be used Thursday morning. (The Keck Observatory, being built by the University of California and the California Institute of Technology, is behind its original construction schedule and will not be completed in time for the eclipse.); What they want to know is more about the temperature and composition of the sun's upper atmosphere -- layers called the chromosphere and the corona -- which normally is difficult to examine against the glare of the sun.; They hope the information will provide clues to what causes the sun's 11-year cycle of sunspots and flares (now near its peak), what propels the solar wind and why the sun's outer atmosphere is, paradoxically, so much hotter than its lower atmosphere.; Solar wind studies; At some observatories, astronomers will take repeated photographs of the corona during the eclipse to study it close up and to watch for material accelerating outward to become solar wind.; Others will use telescopes to study the sun's emissions at microwave frequencies to learn more details about how its temperature varies with altitude.; But, frankly, the astronomers also want to watch the lights go out.; They'll be fighting the temptation to abandon their instruments and go outside to watch.; "The biggest problem," Zirin said, "is whether we're going to see the eclipse."

total eclipses;solar eclipses;shadow;sun;eclipse studies;hawaii;solar scientists;mexico city

SJMN91-06192123

AND HERE'S HOW YOU LOOK ECLIPSE WATCHERS SCRAMBLE FOR THEIR PLACE IN THE SHADOW

Sure, he'll be able to see Thursday's solar eclipse. But, oh, if only he and the hundreds of other customers could see themselves in the mirror, looking like an audience for a 3-D horror flick.; It appears from the way people in the Golden State have been acting these days that they have been in the sun too long. Actually, they can't wait to get into the shadow. Millions of Californians will pause Thursday morning to join in an international ritual: watching the longest-lasting solar eclipse until 2132.; "What other natural phenomenon can you be involved in and not get killed?" said Bert Beecher, spokesman for the Minolta Planetarium at De Anza College. "It's a lot safer than being in a volcano."; Eyeshades a hot item; Bay Area people Tuesday were desperately seeking eyeshades. It took 24 hours for Orion Telescope in Cupertino to sell its stock of 900 Eclipse Viewers, which are made with Mylar plastic lenses and supposedly safe for eclipse viewing. Welding supply stores were inundated with calls for welder's glasses made with the same plastic.; Local planetariums and observatories were deluged with requests from people wanting to attend solar viewing sessions, even though the Bay Area will be privy only to a partial eclipse -- 63 percent coverage of the sun by the moon from 10:10 a.m. to 12:34 p.m.; Some Bay Area "umbraphiles" -- lovers of the shadow -- were leaving few details to chance.; Flights heavily booked; Flights from here to Mexico and Hawaii -- where the eclipse can be seen in total -- were heavily booked by sunstruck people spending thousands of dollars to stand in 6 minutes, 53 seconds of darkness.; Scott Wiener, a computer company executive from Saratoga, is flying with two buddies to Baja, where thousands will toast the corona with Coronas.; "I figure we'll get there in time to see the eclipse from a cab," said Wiener, who stood in line at the telescope store Tuesday for the Eclipse Viewers. "We'll put on the glasses and stick our heads out the window.; "I figure it's worth it. I don't know if I'll be around for the next one in 150 years."; WHERE TO WATCH; Here are places to view Thursday's solar eclipse:; (box)The San Jose Astronomical Association will set up special telescopes at Branham Lane Park, near the intersection of Branham and Camden Avenue, from 9 a.m. to 2 p.m. For information, call the association's recorded message at (408) 997-3347.; (box)In Berkeley, the Lawrence Hall of Science will offer safe viewing. For information, call (415) 642-5133.; (box)At Foothill College, the Foothill Observatory will be open for public viewing. For information call (415) 949-7334.; (box)In Cupertino, viewing will be offered from 10 a.m. to 1 p.m. at the Orion Telescope Center store at 10555 S. De Anza Blvd. Call (408) 255-8770 for information.; (box)California State University, Hayward is hosting a "Safe Solar Eclipse" viewing from 10 a.m. to noon in front of the Student Union. The Society of Physics Students will set up several 6-inch telescopes, and a video camera will record the eclipse for viewing on television. For information, call Kenton White or Charlie Harper at the physics department, (415) 881-3401.; (box)In Santa Cruz, a telescope will be set up in front of the Orion Telescope Center at 2450 17th Ave., and at the Seabright Brewery, 519 Seabright Ave. For information, call (408) 464-0465.; Source: Mercury News

mexico;californians;total eclipse;hawaii;partial eclipse;solar eclipse;eclipse viewers

SJMN91-06193081

LIGHT SHOW 'ECLIPSE OF MILLENNIUM' DAZZLES MILLIONS DESPITE QUIRKS

From Hawaii to Mexico to Central America, more than 40 million people saw the moon obscure so much of the sun that only a blazing ring was visible. In Hawaii, Mauna Loa erupted for the first time in six years, stunning scientists by releasing a dazzling fountain of lava at the height of the eclipse.; And in the Bay Area, more than half the sun was covered when the eclipse peaked at 11:20 a.m. The world will not see such a long-lasting eclipse for another 151 years.; Few people who saw it today will forget "The Big One."; "It looks neat. It looks like someone took a bite out of an apple," said Matthew Mauranoh, 8, of Mountain View, who peered through a homemade black box at the Foothill Observatory.; The view was diminished for many in Hawaii and Mexico, where low cloud cover obscured the celestial display. In the 160-mile-wide swath from Hawaii to Baja to Mexico to Brazil, the morning turned into night -- the only region where the eclipse made the Earth totally dark.; Clouds obscured eclipse; As totality arrived at sea level on the Big Island, the sun was hidden by a cloud layer. At the astronomy observatory at the top of 13,800-foot Mauna Kea, high cirrus clouds thwarted three of the 10 scientific experiments.; It still got dark, but the clouds disappointed about 500 people gathered on the driving range at the Mauna Lani resort in south Kohala. Their hopes had fallen and risen in the previous hour as the clouds came and went.; "I came especially for this, and hope we get to see it," said Margaret MacLeod, a mathematics and science teacher from Manhattan Beach shortly before the eclipse in Hawaii. "If we don't get to see it, I may have to go to Iraq for the next one."; Because of the clouds, most were unable to see the stages of the eclipse until it got totally dark.; In the Bay Area, though, mostly sunny skies made eclipse watching a treat, except along the coast, where it was obscured by fog.; Parks, parking lots, shopping centers, back yards and planetariums became Eclipsefests as the peak approached.; More than a hundred sun gazers showed up at the Branham Lane Park in south San Jose with almost as many gizmos to help them spot sunspots and watch the moon cross the sun.; There were funny Mylar glasses, big pinhole cameras, small pinhole cameras, welder's glass, welder's masks, binoculars projecting images onto cardboard and telescopes.; None was as impressive as Ralph Reeves' interference birefrigent hydrogen alpha filter telescope. All most of us need to know is that it takes electricity (provided by a gas generator) to run. And that you can take pictures of the eclipse through it. That is, if you have film.; "I didn't bring any film with me," said Reeves, a retired Lockheed instrument builder. "Isn't that awful?"; At the Children's Discovery Museum in downtown San Jose, hundreds of youngsters and adults made cardboard telescopes, which projected the eclipse on white cards through a needle hole opening.; Paul Stonecipher , a discovery museum staff guide, said, "We wanted to make little theaters for all of the kids to see the eclipse without burning their eyes."; Using mirrors, the eclipse also was projected on the exterior walls of the lavendar-colored museum.; Eclipse theme park; For nearly a week now, Hawaii turned into an eclipse theme park. More than 500 astronomers and tens of thousands of amateurs flocked to the islands to sell nearly everything under the sun.; Sun-minded entrepreneurs hawked eclipse T-shirts (60 different designs), hats, posters and cookies. There was even an eclipse haircut and, of course, an eclipse drink at the Eclipse restaurant in Kailua-Kona.; "Everything is selling pretty well except for the eclipse Frisbees. Nobody wants eclipse Frisbees," said "Wild Bill" Lawrence, who helped out at Moonshadows, one of many small shops set up to

mexico;sun;hawaii;eclipsefests;moon obscure;eclipse

SJMN91-06193235

STILL IN THE DARK ABOUT ECLIPSE? HERE'S WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

A Although television networks were pushing to have the eclipse in prime time, nature refused to cooperate. In San Jose, the eclipse will begin at 10:10 a.m., peak at 11:20 a.m. and end at 12:34 p.m.; Q What is an eclipse?; A A solar eclipse occurs when the Earth's moon moves into a position to impede the sun's rays.; Q Can I look at the sun?; A No, a thousand times no. You'll burn your retina, causing permanent damage. You shouldn't look at the sun through film negatives, a camera viewfinder or sunglasses, either. So stand under a tree and watch the shadows. Or punch a hole in a piece of paper and look downward at the shadow.; Q Where can I get those goofy eclipse eyeshades?; A Orion Telescope Center in Cupertino has sold out of the special glasses designed for viewing the eclipse safely. A few welding supply stores offer "Mylar" glasses. But some astronomers warn that there is no guarantee that even these glasses will prevent eye damage.; Q Where is the best spot to experience the eclipse?; A Contrary to popular belief, you will not get a better sense of the eclipse on a mountaintop or from your roof. The major part of the shadow will fall mostly through Mexico and Hawaii, where it will get totally dark. The Bay Area gets cheated and will see the moon block only about half the sun's diameter.; Q Can I still get to Baja or Hawaii in time?; A Most flights to Baja are booked. And it's too late to make it to Hawaii. So you're missing 2,000 golfers who will play a shadowy round there with balls that glow in the dark.; Q Can overcast skies block the eclipse?; A In most parts of the Bay Area, skies are expected to be sunny. But along the coast, the morning fog is not likely to have cleared. The eclipse will still be visible through the haze, astronomers say, and the shadows there may actually be more interesting than in sunny San Jose. Again, don't stare at the sun, even through fog.; Q Can children go outside?; A As long as they don't look at the sun.; Q Can I sunbathe in the nude during the eclipse?; A As long as you don't open your eyes.; Q When is the next major eclipse?; A In another 151 years. By then, you may be able to shuttle to the moon and watch it from there.

sun;san jose;shadow;sunglasses;eye damage;eyeshades;mylar glasses;eclipse

SJMN91-06195131

CLINIC BLOCKADERS CHARGE BRUTALITY OPERATION RESCUE SAYS ITS CHARGES OF MISTREATMENT BY POLICE HAVE BEEN IGNORED

In mid-June, a lawsuit against the Los Angeles Police Department was settled when police agreed to stop using a martial-arts weapon, nunchakus, while arresting anti-abortion advocates.; Hundreds have charged that police in more than 50 cities have used excessive force in removing demonstrators intent on closing down abortion facilities. The demonstrators, most associated with Operation Rescue, have charged and testified that police tactics used during the past 2 1/2 years in cities such as Denver, Atlanta, Pittsburgh and Los Angeles have resulted in serious injury and led to sexual abuse against women who have been arrested.; Operation Rescue, which draws participants largely from conservative Catholic and Protestant circles, is a national movement that organizes demonstrations at abortion facilities. It is the practice of the protesters to go limp when ordered to move but to otherwise offer no resistance to police.; The persistent complaints and numerous suits against police by Operation Rescue have taken on a new significance in recent months in the wake of the Los Angeles police beating of motorist Rodney King.; The images of Los Angeles police swinging nightsticks at King as he lay on the ground, played repeatedly on national news programs, were burned into the national conscience and led to widespread calls for investigation of police brutality.; But government agencies, the press and civil libertarians have reacted quite differently to Operation Rescue videos showing apparent police brutality and to reports of police abuse of hundreds of the activists across the country.; A videotape of an Operation Rescue demonstration shows a man's arm apparently snapping under the pressure of being lifted in a manner similar to that used on Lynch. Other scenes show police apparently placing fingers into the nostrils of one demonstrator and grabbing the breast of a female protester to force compliance.; The settlement over police use of nunchakus in Los Angeles, like the videos and photographs showing police using pain compliance techniques on Rescue participants, received little attention from the public, civil rights groups or the press. Some critics say the lack of attention is a sign of a double standard.; Police, including Assistant Chief Craig Carrucci of West Hartford, deny the claims of brutality. The FBI investigated complaints of misconduct by members of his department, he said, and "every single case was closed."; He called pain compliance "a valid tool" used "in direct proportion to the amount of resistance." Even Gandhi and Martin Luther King Jr., when arrested, cooperated with police and the courts, he said.; Shortly after Rodney King's beating, a news program on ABC illustrating police brutality showed a still photo of police using a martial-arts weapon against a person being arrested, but there was no mention that the episode involved Operation Rescue.; Similarly, the CBS Evening News reported March 27 "on various aspects of police brutality" but did not include examples involving anti-abortion activists, a producer said.; "It (police abuse) has not attracted much attention because a lot of people are not sympathetic to Operation Rescue," said Dr. James Fyfe, a professor of justice at American University in Washington, D.C.; Police may also have a predisposition to use excessive force against the anti-abortion activists, said Fyfe, a former New York City policeman. Their tactics -- going limp and in some cases chaining themselves to buildings -- are "a little more than police are used to dealing with."; Dr. Philip Wogaman, professor of Christian social ethics at Wesley Theological Seminary in Washington, D.C.believes the comparison with other kinds of protests breaks down at several points. For instance, he said, civil rights demonstrators normally were picketing to assert their right to eat at a lunch counter or ride on a bus, not closing facilities to deny the rights of others.; As early as 1989, soon after Operation Rescue began widespread sit-ins to disrupt abortion facilities, William B. Allen, then chairman of the U.S. Civil Rights Commission, sounded an alarm. "I am concerned that anti-abortion protesters are receiving selective prosecution and selectively harsh treatment, unlike that received by other demonstrators for other causes," said Allen, who generally opposes abortion.; Colleen O'Connor, the American Civil Liberties Union's national public education director, and Carol Sobel, the ACLU's senior staff counsel in Los Angeles, said they agree that police have abused Operation Rescue participants. The ACLU is supporting Operation Rescue in some of those situations, they said.; But the civil liberties group is clearly caught between conflicting rights. The ACLU may support some of Operation Rescue's claims of police brutality, but Sobel said it also has won a $110,000 judgment in a case in which the ACLU had obtained an injunction against the anti-abortion group.; The Civil Rights Commission in 1989, under pressure from some members of Congress, decided against an investigation of alleged police brutality against anti-abortion activists and decided not to ask the Justice Department to investigate.; A commission spokeswoman said its legal mandate prohibits dealing with abortion issues. Critics of the commission's decision not to investigate say the issue was, and is, police brutality, not abortion.

civil rights demonstrators;anti-abortion;excessive force;serious injury;police abuse;demonstrations;police brutality

SJMN91-06212161

HOW TO MANAGE DIABETES FREE CLINIC FOR HISPANICS WILL FOCUS ON DIET, EXERCISE, MEDICATION

About 7 percent of the general population has diabetes, McNamara said.; Hispanics who have strong American Indian ancestry may be vulnerable to diabetes because about 50 percent of all Indians develop diabetes, McNamara said. Also, the high-fat diet of many Hispanics leads to obesity, which seems to trigger diabetes, McNamara said.; Eighty percent of Hispanics over 40 who are diagnosed as diabetic are overweight, she said.; The clinic Saturday will focus on three ways to manage diabetes -- diet, exercise and medication. Participants will learn that traditional dishes can be just as tasty -- but healthier -- when made with unsaturated fats, and that exercise will reduce weight, which in turn will lower the possibility of contracting diabetes.; "There is no magic pill to cure diabetes. You have to manage your own diabetes, and we're teaching people how to take care of themselves," McNamara said.; The hospital and the diabetes society are sponsoring neighborhood diabetes programs for Hispanics, which are taught by bilingual instructors.; The programs, which first began in 1984, are aimed at people who speak only Spanish or people who are more comfortable receiving instruction in that language.; "We found that the regular programs that we started years ago were not reaching the monolingual Spanish-speaker," McNamara said.; IF YOU'RE INTERESTED; The diabetes management program for Hispanics will be from 9 a.m. to noon at St. Louise Health Center, 18500 St. Louise Drive, off Cochrane Road in Morgan Hill. Registration begins at 8:30 a.m. Further information is available from the Diabetes Society of Santa Clara Valley at (408) 287-3785..

high-fat diet;hispanics;diabetes management program;exercise;diabetes society;contracting diabetes

SJMN91-06246065

THOMAS' FIERCE INDEPENDENCE IS AT HEART OF HIS CONSERVATISM

Yet in a matter of weeks, Thomas goes before the Senate Judiciary Committee as President Bush's nominee to join the increasingly conservative Supreme Court.; Thomas' dramatic political and philosophical transformation reveals more about the man than does his Horatio Alger journey from rural Southern poverty to Supreme Court nomination. To friends, his is a story of courage, to foes, a story of opportunism.; Racial anger, protest lyrics; The homespun homilies of his grandfather, the ruler-slapping discipline of the nuns who taught him at a Catholic school in segregated Savannah, Ga., the racial anger in the writings of Richard Wright and Malcolm X, the iconoclastic theories of such academicians as Thomas Sowell and William Barclay Allen, even the protest lyrics of singer-songwriter Nina Simone -- all are parts of the story.; As glimpsed in dozens of interviews and tens of thousands of pages of documents that Thomas has turned over to the Senate Judiciary Committee, these influences helped shape a set of beliefs that are now the subject of bitter controversy.; Thomas takes immense pride in having staked out an independent course despite suffering what he said was a heavy personal toll in lost friends and public condemnation.; Black 'intellectual clones'; "I refuse to submit to the racially derogatory orthodoxy which says that all blacks should share the same opinion on . . . affirmative action, busing or welfare. . . . I believe it is racist to act as though blacks are intellectual clones," he said in a 1984 speech to black students at Yale Law School, where he earned his law degree.; Thomas underscores his role as a minority figure within a minority by repeatedly quoting Robert Frost's poetic recollection: "Two roads diverged in a wood, and I -- I took the one less traveled by, and that has made all the difference."; Even his close friends have trouble explaining why Thomas took a different road.; As a youth, Clarence Thomas shared the liberal attitudes of many bright young black people who were born into a segregated America and came of age after freedom rides, lunch room sit-ins and the 1964 Civil Rights Act began erasing the overt signs of racial discrimination.; As a Holy Cross College student in the turbulent 1960s, he joined black protesters, wore a beret and a leather jacket, and decorated his dormitory room with a poster of Malcolm X.; But Thomas came to see his college years as wrongheaded.; His rightward shift -- or, by his account, his circling back to conservative values -- began while he was a Yale law student from 1971 to 1974.; Thomas was admitted while an affirmative action program was in effect, although there is no evidence that he would not have gotten in without it.; Friend's view; Whatever the reasons -- and his classmates and faculty members at Yale are unable to pinpoint any particular turning points or pivotal events -- Thomas "became more conservative as he went through the process of legal education," said Harry Singleton, a friend.; By the time Thomas arrived in Jefferson City, Mo., in 1974 to work for John Danforth, now Thomas' chief supporter in the Senate, then the Republican state attorney general, his attitudes were largely formed.; "His philosophy by that point was that he felt that this country was affording people opportunities if they were willing to work and that to rely on government was in the nature of servitude," said lawyer Harvey Tettlebaum, who worked with Thomas.; Several years later he captured the attention of the Reagan transition team, which offered a civil rights job to a reluctant Thomas. His friends urged him not to shun a rare opportunity to make policy, and he accepted successive jobs as assistant secretary of education for civil rights and chairman of the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission.; A colorblind Constitution; In those jobs, Thomas began questioning preferences in jobs and education for racial minorities who had historically suffered discrimination. Later, he began openly opposing such preferences, denouncing the Supreme Court decisions that upheld them and calling for a colorblind Constitution.; Some critics cynically attribute his ideological metamorphosis to opportunism.; Thomas, who has declined to be interviewed since his Supreme Court nomination, has not responded. But he has offered an explanation for his political change of heart. In handwritten notes from his files, he recalled telling his Democratic grandparents why he had turned Republican.; "You all made me become Republican," he told his incredulous grandparents. "Remember . . . when you told me that it wasn't right to beg as long as I could work and get it myself? . . . Remember when you told me that if I ever amounted to anything it would be by the sweat of MY brow and MY elbow grease?; "And remember when you said you would rather starve than have anyone give you something -- as long as you could work for it? . . . Politically, I had no choice: The only party openly standing for those values was the Republican Party."

political change;thomas sowell;clarence thomas;racial minorities;supreme court nomination;senate judiciary committee;affirmative action program

SJMN91-06255434

THOMAS' SPOUSE ALSO IN SPOTLIGHT CRITICS SAY HER VIEWS COULD INFLUENCE CASES

Her critics see her as more than the supportive spouse who'll accompany her husband, Clarence, through his Senate confirmation hearings, which began Tuesday and are likely to run through next week. They see a woman with strong opinions on issues that are bound to come before the court.; Some women's-rights activists are upset by her lobbying against such issues as comparable-worth legislation. Some religious rights groups are troubled by her anti-cult activities in light of her former involvement with Lifespring, a motivational group.; Skin color an issue; Even the color of her skin is being used to determine the content of Clarence Thomas's character. The fact that she is white has drawn criticism from some blacks who see the marriage as evidence that Clarence Thomas has rejected his roots.; In their respective careers, the Thomases have embraced the view that women and minorities are hindered, rather than helped, by affirmative action and government programs. True equality is achieved by holding everyone to the same standard, they believe.; "I don't think it's fair to say she's anti-women's rights," said Ricky Silberman, vice chairwoman of the EEOC and a friend of the Thomases. She said Virginia Thomas opposed legislation on comparable worth because it would have involved the government in determining wages, which is "not good for the economy, not good for workers, not good for women."; Conservative viewpoint; Virginia Thomas has represented the conservative viewpoint in her jobs as a staffer for a Republican congressman, spokeswoman at the U.S. Chamber of Congress and deputy assistant secretary at the Department of Labor.; Clarence Thomas advocates a colorblind society, and his marriage may be an example of that philosophy. But others see a different symbolism.; "His marrying a white woman is a sign of his rejection of the black community," said Russell Adams, chairman of Howard University's department of Afro-American studies. "Great justices have had community roots that served as a basis for understanding the Constitution. Clarence's lack of a sense of community makes his nomination troubling."; Religious leaders wonder; Some religious leaders are troubled as well. Dean Kelley, the National Council of Churches' counselor on religious liberty, wrote a critique of Clarence Thomas that was used as grounds for his organization's opposition to the Supreme Court nominee. The author did not mention Virginia Thomas in his text, but has said he was concerned about her involvement in the Cult Awareness Network (CAN), a Chicago-based organization that says it educates the public about "destructive" cults. That involvement, he said, might affect her husband's handling of religious-liberty cases if he shares her views on the subject.; During the early '80s, Virginia Thomas enrolled in Lifespring, a self-help course that challenges students to take responsibility for their lives. A small percentage of the program's 300,000 graduates have been deeply disturbed by Lifespring's methods, which involve intense emotional self-examination.; A clean break; Virginia Thomas was troubled by some of Lifespring's activities and eventually broke with the organization. Since 1985, she has been a public advocate against cult activities.; When she served as a labor-relations attorney at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce from 1985 to 1989, she represented the interests of the business community at congressional hearings on such issues as comparable worth, affirmative action and federal child-care legislation.

conservative viewpoint;nomination;supportive spouse;clarence thomas;affirmative action;senate confirmation hearings;criticism;supreme court;virginia thomas

SJMN91-06276078

MODERN OFFICE BUILDINGS ARE SLEEK, AIR-TIGHT AND PERFECT FOR SPREADING DISEASE THERE'S SOMETHING GOING AROUND

What's the link? A poor ventilation system that does little more than recycle old, stale air from one end of the building to another.; Millions of American office workers are getting more than they bargained for when they inhale in a building that has no fresh air. Along with oxygen, they may be getting flu and other infectious bugs from their co-workers.; That's because, in today's modern office buildings, recirculated air can mean recycled flu and other airborne infections. The evidence comes from various studies of tuberculosis, measles and flu that spread in a manner that can only be explained by poor air ventilation.; "Modern office buildings are tight," says Jon Rosenberg, public health officer in California's occupational health program. "In order to conserve energy, they're often sealed."; Experts say the problem is not the same as "sick building syndrome" -- a situation in which workers are exposed chronically to toxic chemicals and gases emitted from carpets, furniture and other building materials. Nor is it to blame for last month's outbreak in Richmond of Legionnaire's disease -- an illness caused by a bug linked to wet, damp spaces rather than poor ventilation.; But as in "sick building syndrome," it's the airtight environment that sets the stage for problems. Lack of windows is not necessarily the culprit. "If it has a good ventilation system . . . you don't necessarily have to have a sick building," Rosenberg says.; But, alas, many modern ventilation systems recirculate indoor air with little or no fresh air. So the infectious bugs that a worker exhales at one end of the building can end up, via the ventilation system, being inhaled at the other end.; "The building is not the source. People are the source," says Dr. Edward Nardell, who studies airborne infections for the Massachusetts Department of Public Health. "Very bad ventilation makes the system worse."; In a study published in the August issue of the American Review of Respiratory Diseases, Nardell and colleagues at Harvard Medical School found that an outbreak of tuberculosis documented in one unidentified government building could have been cut in half had the ventilation been better.; The study found that 40 percent of the building's workers -- or 27 of 47 -- were infected with tuberculosis from one 30-year-old sick employee. The infection rate was as high in some distant parts of the building as it was next to the sick employee.; "By recirculating the air, you spread it throughout the building," says Nardell. "People who had no direct contact with this case, might have been exposed in far reaches of the building."; If tuberculosis can spread in poorly ventilated buildings, so can other infectious bugs. Respiratory infection experts say that flu viruses and measles are easier to spread than TB.; "This particular study deals only with TB," says Dr. Jonathan Samet, a respiratory-disease expert at the University of New Mexico, "but the observations may apply to other organisms, such as the respiratory viruses that cause flu."; Building workers had complained for years about poor air quality.; The building's ventilation system permitted circulation of some outdoor air -- 15 cubic feet per minute -- a low level commonly found in buildings since the 1930s. Even lower levels of outdoor air ventilation, below 10 cfm, have become common since 1973, the post-oil embargo era.; In the study, Nardell estimated that if outdoor air ventilation in the government building had been doubled -- to about 35 cubic feet per minute, a level that Massachusetts recommends for buildings where smoking is permitted -- only half as many workers would have been infected with tuberculosis.; Other studies have documented:; (check) Flu spreads quickly on airplanes where ventilation systems consist entirely of recirculated air.; (check) Measles are transmitted by infectious air in a pediatrician's waiting room.; (check) Tuberculosis can spread in homeless shelters, prisons and hospitals where ventilation is poor.; Flu spreads much more easily than TB. "It may survive several hours in dry air," says Vernon Knight, a respiratory virus disease expert at Baylor College of Medicine in Houston. "In those tight buildings, they continue to recirculate it, and they probably build up."; Nardell and others recognize that the solution to this problem -- fixing or replacing ventilation systems to include more fresh air -- can be expensive. Flu and colds will probably never be eliminated from the workplace entirely, and it may not make sense to install a new ventilation system unless the air quality is very low.; In his tuberculosis study, he found that the biggest benefit comes from improving the worst ventilation systems that allow very little fresh air. If the ventilation is moderately effective but not ideal, further improvements yield only a slight decrease in infectious illness.; "There's only so much you can do," Nardell says. "There's going to be a price of living together in a communal society."; YOU'RE INTERESTEDEmployees who think that poor air quality at their workplace is contributing to health problems can call Cal-OSHA, a state agency that monitors worker safety and health. In San Jose, Cal-OSHA can be reached at (408) 452-7288.

tuberculosis study;airborne infections;ventilation system;poor air ventilation;infectious air

SJMN91-06283083

L.A. LAW UNDER THE PUBLIC'S GUN EVEN SHERIFF FEELS HEAT OF THE CRITICS

Just last week, a federal judge hearing a civil rights suit issued an unusual order that employees follow department policy -- and the department appealed, winning a temporary delay of the order.; The spotlight that had been trained on the police department and its 8,300 officers now has widened to take in the equally large sheriff's department. Block's measured response to the criticism -- and the lack of a riveting videotape -- have spared him the level of heat felt by Police Chief Daryl Gates. But after years of boasting that their methods were models in policing, both departments are facing pressure to revolutionize their tactics to better fit this first-of-its-kind metropolis.; "We are a multiracial, multicultural city more than any other," said Ramona Ripston, head of the American Civil Liberties Union of Southern California. "If something can be worked out here, it would be really, I think, a model that can be exported."; Joseph McNamara, retired chief of San Jose's department and now a fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution, said he has been getting calls all summer from cities around the country about racism and brutality in their departments.; "There's got to be a revolution in American policing," McNamara said. "Militarizing police is a definite trend in the past 10 years, and part of it is because of the Los Angeles models."; But some observers say that, for a variety of political and social reasons, the possibility for substantive change on L.A. law's front lines is scant.; Low level of interest; "There isn't the level of interest among voting people, people with power, people with influence," ACLU spokesman Joe Hicks said. "They don't really care much about police reform. They just want to make sure their communities are safe."; The poor minority communities that do care suffer "a lack of organization that really can take advantage of the anger over the police and keep some momentum going that could potentially force reforms," Hicks said.; The King beating led to an investigation of the police department by an independent commission that found racism, brutality, inadequate discipline, mismanagement and a "siege mentality" pitting officers against the community.; The Christopher Commission's scathing report made more than 100 recommendations, many of them aimed at moving away from the department's "hard-nosed" approach and improving relations with residents.; At the street level, it suggested officers spend more time out of their patrol cars, work more with community groups and ease up on the common practice of making suspects lie face down on the ground even when they pose no apparent threat.; The city council is reviewing the recommendations, some of which -- for instance, a term limit for the chief -- require voter approval.; Now, critics are calling for the same kind of independent investigation of the sheriff's department.; But Block has dug in his heels, insisting a panel he appointed is independent enough to advise which Christopher Commission recommendations might apply to his department. Critics say its leaders have been supporters of the local law establishment.; But because Block is elected, his is the last word.; Like Gates before him, Block maintains his department is a good one with "a reputation as being one of the most progressive, one of the most professional, one of the finest law enforcement agencies."; The sheriff has said that his department continually re-examines itself and launched several Christopher Commission recommendations before the commission even existed -- but that it can't do everything.; 'A last-resort mechanism'; "Law enforcement, and I'm going beyond the sheriff's department, did not create the social conditions out there from which the violence is springing," he said. "People are looking at the criminal justice system today as being the linchpins of government. . . . (But) We're a last-resort mechanism when other kinder and gentler processes fail in our society. And fail they have."; Block pointed to social ills including high drop-out and illiteracy rates, "young people who are raising themselves," and a county jail system that is "perhaps the major houser of mentally ill people in our society in this nation."; Countywide, homicides soared to 1,964 last year, compared with 1,463 five years earlier.; There are 950 known street gangs with more than 99,300 members in the county, according to the sheriff's department.; Agreeing that law enforcement is not the answer to all of society's failures, critics say Block is missing the point.; "Police brutality (or) racism is not a social problem, it's a law enforcement lack of leadership," the Hoover Institution's McNamara said. "The basic goal and mission of law enforcement people is to reduce conflict in the community. . . . The rhetoric of the Los Angeles police establishment through the years seems to have escalated conflict, not lowered it."; The FBI, Amnesty International and the county grand jury are investigating allegations about both departments.; But some critics are skeptical that the police culture here will change significantly.; 'Window dressing' predicted; On the city side, they worry that the Christopher Commission recommendations will be diluted by the time the city council and voters are finished with them. Besides a new police chief, the ACLU's Hicks predicted only "some window dressing and some moderate changes made to training."; On the county side, critics say Block's position as an elected official insulates him from the kind of independent review the city was able to order for the police department.; And although he can be voted out, they say, the voters include great numbers of people in cities that his department doesn't patrol.; John Burton, an attorney specializing in police misconduct cases, offers a grim view on the potential for change: "I think it's going to get worse, because of the general decay in social conditions and unemployment. The government doesn't have anything to offer except police repression, so that's what we get."

investigation;police reform;police brutality;public criticism;rodney king;inadequate discipline;racism

SJMN91-06290146

PRAYERS, SONG IN PIN POINT AS VOTE IS TAKEN

And, a reporter asked, what would she say to Anita Hill if she had the chance?; "I'd tell her to pray," she replied. "She needs God bad. I won't say nothing bad about her because she's a mother-child, too. But, whoever put her up to it, I just pray she'll get her life straightened out."; In Thomas' birthplace, the hometown crowd has made no attempt to disguise where its heart lies. A handwritten sign on the main thoroughfare announces: "Pinpoint Georgia, the home of Judge Clarence Thomas."; Not surprisingly, no one here seemed to believe Hill's allegation that Thomas had sexually harassed her between 1981 and 1983 while she worked for him.; From a roof, a sign announced: "We believe Clarence."; Much of the community gathered before the only big-screen television available, at the home of Abraham Famble, deacon of the Sweet Fields of Eden Baptist Church, as the time for the Senate vote neared.; Williams prayed silently in the kitchen, asking God to watch over her son as she rubbed her hands nervously. The crowd joined her in the 23rd Psalm : "Though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death . . ."; As the tally reached a majority for Thomas, a cry of joy and applause rang out.; "Earth hath no sorrow that heaven cannot heal," Famble said.

senate vote;williams;clarence thomas;hometown crowd;birthplace;georgia

SJMN91-06301029

WHY IT COULD HAPPEN HERE CONDITIONS IN SOUTH BAY HILLS MIRROR DEADLY MIX

Now, in the wake of that firestorm, local firefighters are looking up at the hills that surround this area and wondering not whether, but only when and where.; "I know it's there," said Saratoga Fire Chief Ernest Kraule. "Every fire chief -- there's 12 of us in this county -- knows it's there."; The danger is in the Saratoga foothills, where Kraule's department has battled nine deliberately set fires since June -- most recently Oct. 19, the same day Oakland firefighters thought they had contained a brush fire that a day later blossomed into the deadly firestorm.; It's in the mountain communities that straddle Highway 9 in Santa Cruz County, isolated by weak bridges that won't support some firetrucks and connected by a two-lane road that will hinder escape.; It's in Los Altos Hills, where residents in 1984 repealed an ordinance requiring fire-retardant roofs; a year later, a fire destroyed 100 acres and 12 homes, many of which have been rebuilt -- with the same flammable shake roofs.; In fact, the danger of an Oakland-like inferno is in almost all of the hills that ring the South Bay, where homes often are surrounded by dense brush or stately trees, the fuel of rapidly spreading wildfires.; And the risk is increasing, as cramped Bay Area residents push farther into the hills and canyons in search of living space and rural atmosphere. State officials say it's no coincidence that six of California's 10 most damaging wildfires have occurred since 1980.; "The tendency is to have bigger fires that are much more expensive to put out, with much more property loss," said Roy Pike, a deputy chief in the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection's Santa Rosa office.; Privacy's high price; Having pushed into these areas, city dwellers don't understand that the wooded seclusion and natural beauty exact a cost in fire protection, rescue workers complain.; In cities, a firetruck might respond to an alarm within two or three minutes; in the Highway 9 communities, they hope for 10 minutes. Instead of an eight- or 10-inch water main ensuring pressure for fire hoses, the mountains are laced with two-inch pipes.; "Those are the risks you take when you live in an area like this," said Dean Lucke, chief of the forestry department's San Mateo-Santa Cruz ranger unit. "We can't guarantee everyone's safety up here at all times."; In general, firefighters say, the heavily wooded Santa Cruz Mountains are more susceptible to major fires than the grass-covered eastern foothills. Take the 1985 fire above Lexington Reservoir, which blazed for six days, scorching nearly 14,000 acres and destroying 42 homes.; But there are exceptions, such as narrow Kilkare Canyon near Sunol, where 200 homes are strung along a narrow, five-mile dead-end road that empties onto narrow, winding Niles Canyon Road.; "A large concentration of vegetation, heavy fuel loads, lots of wooden structures, ingress-egress (problems), lack of water, they're all there," said Fremont Fire Chief Dan Lydon, whose department would be one of the first called to a fire in Kilkare. "If there's an area that has the significant potential for disaster, that's one."; Codes rarely enforced; In the hills, nearly every home is surrounded by thick brush or dense woods. Fire codes require residents to keep the trees 30 feet from their homes, but fire officials admit they rarely enforce them. Instead, as they drive by, some firefighters make mental notes about which homes would be worth saving.; "You do this evaluation of what you think you'd be effective at salvaging," said Don Shaw, a battalion chief for the Palo Alto Fire Department. By not trimming dense brush, he said, some homeowners are "virtually signing a death warrant."; And increasingly, fire officials worry about wildfires spreading into even more heavily populated areas at the base of the foothills, where numerous trees create an "urban forest."; "We could have a fire going from rooftop to treetop to rooftop to treetop in any number of areas in this city, if the weather conditions are right," said San Jose Fire Chief Robert Osby.; The lesson of the Oakland hills, firefighters say, is to contain and extinguish even the smallest fires as quickly as possible. But, often, that means firefighters have to overcome narrow roads, weak bridges, inadequate water pressure and gridlock from fleeing residents.; Challenge for firefighters; Many of the South Bay's most vulnerable areas -- such as Redwood Estates above Los Gatos and Emerald Lake Hills above Redwood City -- began as colonies of summer homes, a handful of secluded cottages strung along narrow winding roads. Now, these communities are the year-round home for thousands, often still dependent on volunteer firefighters and an overtaxed network of roads and water lines.; "On a good day, trying to maneuver fire apparatus on those roads is tough," said Steve Cavallero, a battalion chief for the Redwood City Fire Department, which covers a portion of Emerald Lake Hills. "Combine that with panic, with people getting out of the way, and you're setting the stage for disaster."; An estimated 25,000 people live in the communities along Highway 9 between Santa Cruz and Boulder Creek, the curvy, two-lane road that would be the only way out in the case of a major fire. How would all those people escape?; "That's a good question," said O.J. Burrell, chief of fire prevention at the San Mateo-Santa Cruz ranger unit.; Weak bridges keep firetrucks out of many of those communities, as well as New Almaden Valley south of San Jose, forcing firefighters to carry hoses by hand. Ed Ekers, chief of the Santa Cruz city fire department, worries about sending his trucks through "a tunnel of fire" if flames were ever to spread across the canopy of trees above Highway 9.; Will there be water?; Even if they can reach a blaze, firefighters know there may not be any water to fight it. In Oakland, water pressure dropped as electricity failures shut off pumps and thousands of open hydrants and water connections quickly drained reservoirs.; That could happen even in urbanized areas of Santa Clara County because the major water suppliers rely on a similar system of electric pumps to maintain water pressure in the foothills.

fire officials;brush fire;saratoga foothills;damaging wildfires;deadly firestorm;oakland firefighters;fire prevention;fire hazards;fire protection

SJMN91-06312120

VACATION? HOW 'BOUT A MARATHON?

But a unique subset has formed: people who like to do both at the same time. And to help these folks along, companies arrange tours for marathon vacations. The result? Bangkok in November, London in April and Stockholm in May.; "Skiers have mountain ranges, tennis players have resorts, why can't a runner take a marathon vacation?" said Thorn Gilligan, president of Marathon Tours in Boston. "A runner should be able to enjoy a closed city for a day. It's a celebration for the sport as much as a competition."; Gilligan took 5,500 people last year on 20 tours to countries from Bermuda to Moscow. In addition to air fare and hotel, runners are guaranteed spots in restricted entry races such as the London Marathon. Qualifying times are not required.; London, the most popular European city to visit, holds the world's largest marathon (April 12 next year). Berlin's race (Sept. 27, 1992) has grown with the demise of the wall.; "Most marathons take you through cities, so you get a chance to see things you'd never see on a sightseeing bus," said Fred Lebow, president of the New York Roadrunner's Club and director of the New York Marathon. Lebow has run in 32 marathons, including London, Paris, Rome, Stockholm, Iceland, Seoul and Vienna.; "The most exciting thing is the start of the race," he said. "Each city has something unique."; The cities are different, but most marathons include a carbo-loading pasta party the night before, medical exams, a post-race celebration, commemorative T-shirts and awards to finishers. Entry fees vary; Brussels is $16, Venice $40.; Marathon Tours includes the entry price in the package. Going to Bermuda, for example, costs approximately $900 from San Francisco. The price includes round-trip air fare, four days and three nights at the Grotto Bay Beach hotel (per person, based on double occupancy), full breakfasts and dinners, a welcome cocktail party and post-race parties and discounts.; England has similar organizations: Sports Tours International and Keith Prowse, a company that specializes in British theater, sports and concert tours.; But it isn't necessary to run 26.2 miles to go on a running vacation, especially if it's a family trip. Some marathons, like Portland's, include additional races: a five-mile run, a five-mile walk and a kids run. Tel Aviv has a half-marathon and a fun run. Budapest offers a half-marathon and a mini-marathon along the Danube.; There are also trips that incorporate running into the sightseeing schedule. Running coach Pat Savage and Hal Higdon, a senior writer for Runner's World, are taking a group to Ireland in June. The eight-day trip will leave from Chicago and will include sightseeing, guided runs and a fun run from Malahide Castle to Swords.; "On a running vacation you plan something around running everyday," Higdon said. "We know the unique scenic routes and put together special runs."; Some runs are intriguing because of current events. The Tel Aviv Marathon course went past houses hit by Scud missiles during the Gulf War. The Belgrade Marathon was held despite Yugoslavia's turmoil. The Munich course is the same as the 1972 Olympic route and finishes in the same stadium.; Running 26 miles just to see a city definitely isn't for everyone, but at the very least, it's a way to kill two birds with one stone. In the recent Chicago Marathon, a German man ran with a camera, snapping photos every few miles.; IF YOU'RE INTERESTED; If you're interested in combining a vacation and marathon, here are some firms to contact:; (box) Marathon Tours, 108 Main St., Charlestown, Mass. 02129. (617) 242-7845.; (box) Roadrunner Tours, 2815 Lake Shore Dr., Michigan City, Ind. 46360. (219) 879-0133.; (box) Keith Prowse, based in England. (8OO) 6MY-TOUR.; (box) Sports Tours International, 91 Walkdon Rd., Walkdon, Worslay, Manchester M28 5DQ, United Kingdom. (061) 703-8161.

marathon vacations;running vacation;restricted entry races;marathon tours

WSJ870123-0101

REVIEW & OUTLOOK (Editorial): Wither Welfare Reform?

In his State of the Union address last January, President Reagan announced that welfare reform would be a priority of his administration in its final three years. He instructed his charges to draw up plans for "immediate action" that would enable poor families to achieve "real and lasting emancipation" from welfare dependency. "The success of welfare," he said, "should be judged by how many of its recipients become independent of welfare." The president's convincing message raised hopes that something would finally be done to break the cycle of poverty and dependency that afflicts several million welfare families. Americans have become increasingly exasperated by the enormous amount of money the federal government devotes each year to anti-poverty programs, with little apparent abatement in poverty. The president correctly sensed that the public wants reform. If the president lets up on welfare reform, he will disappoint those whose hopes he raised last January, a group that surely includes many of the poor who understand better than any politician how deficient the current system is. To build on the momentum he created a year ago, the president must make plain his commitment in the State of the Union message next Tuesday. To pull away now would be to undercut the welfare-reform movement just as it has hit its stride. The president ought to challenge Congress to respond to his initiatives. His Domestic Policy Council has drafted a blueprint. It would give the states wider latitude to experiment with welfare programs. Many of the governors seem to like the plan, as they have already unveiled their own proposals for welfare reform. The president and the governors should be natural allies on this issue, and the chances of success would be enhanced if they could jointly commit themselves to a plan of action. The president will need all the help he can get if he is to convince Democrats in Congress to go along. Most have paid lip service to the idea of welfare reform but nary a bill has been put on the docket. This suggests that the Democrats aren't as serious about welfare reform as the governors and the American public are. There is a reason for this. The Democrats have long been beholden to the welfare lobby, whose interests now have less to do with alleviating poverty than with enlarging the welfare bureaucracy. This past December, a coalition of some 80 organizations, most with headquarters in Washington, issued a "statement of principles" calling for increased spending for poverty and jobs programs. It also insisted that the federal government has "primary responsibility" for operating welfare. Congressional Democrats seem to be in agreement with the welfare lobby. However, the public wants the system changed. It will be difficult for Congress to sell restored or additional spending on current poverty programs when the American people are already spending more than $100 billion a year on these programs. The president should take up his case for reform directly with the American people. With the alliance of reform-minded governors and the support of the public, the president can press Congress to move off the deadening status quo. With the ball in its court, Congress can decide either to work with the president and the governors, or it can continue to place the interests of the welfare lobby ahead of the interests of the poor.

americans;welfare reform;president reagan;welfare programs;federal government;welfare dependency

WSJ870227-0149

REVIEW & OUTLOOK (Editorial): Toward a Welfare Consensus

While there is agreement in virtually every quarter that something needs to be done about welfare, disagreement remains over exactly what to do. The White House has a formula for welfare reform, as do Sens. Moynihan and Kennedy. Now the nation's governors are asking Washington to adopt their plan. Meeting this week in Washington, the governors said they want to transform the current welfare system -- largely an income-maintenance system -- into more of a job-support system. They would require all able-bodied welfare recipients (except mothers with children under 3 years of age) to work in exchange for their benefits. Those who do would be eligible for help with education and training, day care and transportation. Many states already have launched work-for-welfare experiments. The results in Massachusetts, California, Illinois, Pennsylvania and Utah have been promising. Substantial numbers of welfare recipients have moved into jobs and off the public rolls. These successes have encouraged the governors of New York, New Jersey, Washington and Missouri to undertake their own reform programs. The leaders of the National Governors Association came away from a White House meeting this past Tuesday pleasantly surprised that they were able to reach an accord with the president on many points. The conference's chairman, Democratic Gov. Bill Clinton of Arkansas, even backed off earlier criticism of the administration's welfare plan, saying after the White House meeting, "I feel better about the prospects of welfare reform than I did yesterday." That is not to say the president agreed with the governors on every count. One item on the governors' agenda that Mr. Reagan didn't go for was a national minimum level for an individual recipients's welfare benefits. By endorsing a federal welfare standard, the administration would undercut its own proposal to give the states wider latitude to set their own welfare criteria and standards, tailored to their populations. The most unattractive feature of the governors' welfare plan is its price tag -- up to $2 billion a year on top of the $100 billion-plus already devoted to assorted anti-poverty programs. However committed the administration and Congress may be to reform, they're unlikely to endorse a plan that increases the deficit. The governors argue that by spending the extra $2 billion a year, the federal government would be making an investment. By setting aside more money for job training, day care and other support, they say, taxpayers would ultimately realize savings as welfare recipients are weaned from the public rolls. But taxpayers can be forgiven if they view this part of the governors' argument with skepticism. After all, Americans have spent more than $1 trillion over the past two decades to alleviate poverty and curb dependency without seeing evidence of an appreciable return on their substantial investment. An extra $2 billion a year added to the present anti-poverty programs (which, as we have mentioned before, if simply handed out in cash would be enough to lift every poor household in America above poverty) is unlikely to accomplish all that the governors promise. Oversold political programs and promises are largely what got us into this mess. Nonetheless there is merit in the governors' plan, as there is in the administration's reform proposals, and in the reform bills under consideration in the Senate. Most important, the governors would require that welfare recipients do something productive in exchange for their benefits, be it completing school, receiving vocational training or holding a job. Only by requiring individual initiative and productivity can welfare recipients ever achieve self-sufficiency. The degree of consensus forming around welfare reform is unusual. All the important players -- the president, the governors and congressional leaders -- agree that the goal of such reform is to transform the welfare system into one that enables poor families to achieve, in the president's words, "real and lasting emancipation" from welfare dependency. On this point, at least, there doesn't seem to be much conflict. Since all of the principals agree on the ultimate goal of welfare reform, it seems reasonable to expect that they can achieve a plan of action.

welfare system;reform consensus;welfare recipients;welfare reform;president reagan;reform programs

WSJ870306-0171

De Beers Diamond Syndicate Flourishes As Other Commodity Cartels Flounder --- By Neil Behrmann Staff Reporter of The Wall Street Journal

Confounding predictions of its demise four years ago during the worst diamond slump since the 1930s, De Beers Consolidated Mines Ltd., the South African concern that controls 80% of the world's uncut-diamond market, is thriving. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is floundering, and the international tin cartel has collapsed. But De Beers not only halted a fall in rough-diamond prices, it raised them an average 14.5% last year. Sales still soared 40% to a near-record $2.56 billion, double the $1.26 billion posted in the 1982 doldrums. De Beers managed the comeback by convincing diamond producers, dealers and the jewelry industry that its marketing muscle was indispensable. "Selling diamonds is the business of dealers and jewelers; helping them to sell more is ours," says Stephen Lussier, a De Beers marketing executive. De Beers helped with an advertising and promotion budget that swelled to $110 million this year, up from $43 million in 1980. Supplemented by $20 million spent by the diamond trade, the De Beers campaign helped raise world sales of diamond jewelry to 47 million pieces valued at $21.6 billion in 1985, up from 42 million pieces valued at $16 billion in 1979. Figures for 1986 aren't yet available, but De Beers says it was another record. The promotional budget covers market research, a world-wide network of as many as 200 public-relations officials, and advertising campaigns coordinated by the agencies N.W. Ayer & Son in the U.S. and J. Walter Thompson Co. in 27 other countries. The master sales plan began in 1938, when former De Beers Chairman Harry Oppenheimer asked Ayer to woo American couples to buy expensive diamond engagement rings. Today the U.S. is the world's No. 1 market, with $8 billion in annual retail diamond jewelry sales, or about a 40% share, even though a 1971 antitrust law prevents De Beers from operating directly there. About three-fourths of American women own diamond engagement rings that cost an average $1,300. De Beers's strategy is two-pronged, says Mr. Lussier. General "diamond image" advertising aims at perpetuating the mystique of quality diamonds as "the ultimate expression of love," he says. De Beers applied similar promotional techniques world-wide. One out of 17 Japanese couples bought engagement rings two decades ago. Now two-thirds do, and Japan is the second-largest diamond jewelry market, followed by West Germany. De Beers's Central Selling Organization, known as the Syndicate, is the pipeline between diamond mines and dealers based mainly in Antwerp, Belgium; Bombay, India; Tel Aviv, Israel, and New York. As the sole middleman, De Beers usually avoids the acrimony that has divided other cartels. The Syndicate has purchase contracts with De Beers's own mines in South Africa and Namibia (a territory controlled by South Africa), other African states such as Botswana, Zaire and Sierra Leone, and Australia. De Beers offers its cache to select dealers 10 times a year at sales known as "sights." Each dealer gets a box containing uncut diamonds. The dealer must accept or reject the entire box, valued at between $1 million and $25 million. If the dealer refuses to buy, De Beers may never invite him back. This ritual has enabled De Beers to maintain price stability. The cartel hasn't cut prices since it was founded more than half a century ago. Despite grumbling, diamond dealers generally believe that a healthy international diamond market depends on the Syndicate. OPEC members "tend to do what they like," says Jo Flies, chief economist of the Antwerp Diamond Council. But De Beers is unique, he says, in influencing production and consumption of diamonds. "People mesmerized by the producers' cartels forget that De Beers is an aggressive, ruthless and effective sales organization," says a London dealer. Some analysts warn, however, that De Beers's future may be affected by the surge in diamond output elsewhere, notably Australia. World diamond production has soared to 88 million carats from 47 million carats in 1982. A carat equals 1/142 of an ounce. About 20% of the prize diamonds are produced in southern Africa, but the market is being flooded by cheaper diamonds mainly from Australia and Zaire. The Soviet Union, which produces an estimated 12 million carats of top-grade diamonds annually, is another unknown. De Beers has a sales arrangement with the Soviets, but Moscow has dumped diamonds before and may prove difficult to keep in line. Angola left the cartel last year, partly because it is involved in a bitter war with South African-backed rebels. Other African nations in the cartel want more control over distribution, dealers say. "De Beers can't stop evolution," says Jack Lunzer, chairman of IDC Holdings Ltd., a London-based diamond firm that sells diamonds for Guinea, an African nation that isn't a cartel member. While sales independence from De Beers "could be disastrous" for the market, Mr. Lunzer says, that won't deter those producers who want "more information and knowledge about final sales of their material." But the fate of De Beers, South Africa's most famous company, will depend largely on developments in that troubled country, dealers say. International sanctions, including a possible U.S. import ban on South African diamonds, pose a growing threat. Recent history indicates, however, that it would be hasty to write off the cartel. In 1981, Zaire, which mines 22% of world diamond output, left the cartel. Australia was about to open a huge diamond mine and a speculative boom had led to widespread dealer bankruptcies. The monopoly was threatened with extinction. While average prices of De Beers's rough diamonds rose 37%, prices of polished diamonds in dealers' stocks collapsed. The top-grade investment diamond, D-Flawless, tumbled to around $8,000 a carat in 1985 from an average of $55,000 in 1980. In a series of shrewd moves, De Beers forced Zaire to rejoin the cartel by dumping diamonds. Meanwhile, diamond demand by consumers increased, fueled by De Beers's promotion campaign and favorable economic trends. Dealers say trade is buoyant again because of lower interest rates and a weak dollar that makes dollar-priced diamonds cheaper in Japan and Europe. Since November 1985, prices of D-Flawless diamonds have risen 56% to around $14,000 a carat. "De Beers is powerful; it is everywhere," says Alfred Lachowsky, chairman of the Antwerp Diamond High Council. The cartel will continue to control world diamond markets, Mr. Lachosky says. "You can't mix diamonds with oil."

diamond jewelry;south african concern;diamond trade;de beers campaign;diamond producers;uncut-diamond market;world diamond markets;promotion campaign;rough-diamond prices;world diamond production;de beers consolidated mines ltd.

WSJ870501-0141

The Americas: Peruvian Rebels Supplant Army as Shield for Drug Producers --- By Tyler Bridges

In the late 1970s, poor farmers living in communities surrounding this small town began replacing their fields of cacao and coffee with coca to meet the growing U.S. demand for cocaine. Like thousands of other farmers in Peru's Upper Huallaga Valley, they discovered that while cacao and coffee could give their families enough to eat, coca could make them rich. Lately, someone else has been attracted by its big profits: the country's murderous guerrillas, the Shining Path. Development workers, farmers and priests in the area say that the rebels have steadily streamed into the Upper Huallaga, a vast stretch of jungle northeast of Lima, and the biggest coca-growing zone in the world. Until recently, the Shining Path had largely neglected the jungle. In pursuing its strategy of trying to topple Peru's democratically elected government, it had concentrated its bombings and shootings in the mountains and in Lima. But the guerrillas have discovered they can easily win support among farmers in the jungles of Upper Huallaga because of widespread anger generated by the U.S.-financed Peruvian anti-drug campaign. This effort focuses on interdicting drug trafficking and eradicating coca plants. While Washington has been quick to trumpet links between guerrillas and drug trafficking in other countries, U.S. officials downplay the connection between drugs and the Shining Path. One reason is embarrassment that the U.S.-financed anti-drug effort may have pushed coca growers closer to the guerrillas. But more important, if it were admitted that guerrillas are in large numbers in the Upper Huallaga, the army might again be given emergency control over the zone. And this is something Peruvian and U.S. officials apparently would rather avoid. The army was in force in the Upper Huallaga during the declared period of a state of emergency, from July 1984 to December 1985. During this period, the army had virtual dictatorial control over all military and nonmilitary operations in the region. Government officials from the anti-drug police (UMOPAR) and the coca-eradication unit (CORAH) sent into the region to wipe out drug production were often confined to their barracks by the army; they simply were not allowed to carry on with their work. The army continued its raids against the Shining Path in one part of the valley, but the drug growers were increasing production in several other parts while anti-drug officials were virtually kept under lock and key. Anti-drug police, Upper Huallaga residents and Interior Ministry officials report that army officers received hundreds of thousands of dollars in payoffs from drug lords for their help in keeping anti-drug officials at bay. "It's better for the 'narcos' when the army is here," says one UMOPAR officer. When new President Alan Garcia lifted the state of emergency, the army lost any ability it may have had to protect coca growers. Not only did it lose the power of authority in the region, but the number of troops in the Upper Huallaga Valley was dramatically reduced. The troops were dispatched to other areas of the country, particularly in the mountainous Ayacucho region where guerrillas have been active. With the army impediment gone, the anti-drug campaign set about pushing traffickers out of Tingo Maria, their former headquarters, eliminating coca growing in the immediate vicinity of the town. But the narcos have now entrenched themselves in the towns of Tocache and Uchiza, where the police have repeatedly been blocked from entering by armed residents. At the same time, farmers are now planting coca in rugged parts of the jungle, far from CORAH's sweep. Nevertheless, the loss of army protection provided the Shining Path with a golden opportunity. "The guerrillas now present themselves as the defenders of the coca farmers," says Segundo Ramirez, owner of Aucayacu's radio station. In return for their protection, the guerrillas demand that farmers turn over one-fifth of their coca crop, according to UMOPAR officers, farmers and priests. The rebels then process the leaves into coca paste and sell the paste to international traffickers -- usually Colombians -- for weapons and money, local sources say. The commander of the anti-drug police, Gen. Juan Zarate, says there are few guerrillas in the Upper Huallaga and denies that an alliance exists between the drug traffickers and the Shining Path. But residents insist that the rebels operate as a de facto government in the zone, even in Aucayacu and Tulumayo, where the police and army have outposts. An important guerrilla activity is organizing community self-defense groups against the hated police. Twenty-nine CORAH workers have been murdered in the valley since 1984, and it's likely that the Shining Path will encourage this kind of violence. In early January, the rebels were apparently behind a strike protesting the anti-drug program. For three days they shut down the 50-mile road from Tingo Maria to Rio Uchiza -- the only continuous, paved road in the valley. The relationship between the Shining Path and the people of the valley is not entirely cordial. As part of its efforts to impart revolutionary "justice" among the people, the Shining Path has administered brutal reprisals against those peasants who do not fit its "new-man" profile. During the January strike, the guerrillas killed an alleged thief and a seller of coca-paste cigarettes, according to a crop substitution program worker who works directly with the farmers in the area. The rebels are also believed responsible for the murders of four homosexual men last November in Aucayacu. On March 13 in El Triumfo, a small community near Aucayacu, they executed a 23-year-old man who spoke out against a guerrilla-organized activity. "That really shook up the 80 families in the community," says Enrique Pena, a parish priest who can no longer enter the guerrilla-controlled area. The guerrillas are held responsible for assassinating six mayors in the area since 1985, including two mayors from Aucayacu, which has 3,500 residents. Says Aucayacu Deputy Mayor Luis Salazar: "The captain of the army has told me I'm on the guerrillas' black list." The government's problem in combatting the current violence and influence of the Shining Path is how to ensure that army troops sent into this coca-rich region won't become corrupted by the lure of drug money, as they reportedly did in the past. This is the Catch-22 that now confounds Peruvian and U.S. officials trying to eradicate both drugs and guerrillas from Peru. --- Mr. Bridges is a free-lance writer.

peruvian anti-drug campaign;drug trafficking;guerrillas;coca farmers;anti-drug police;upper huallaga valley;emergency control;shining path;coca growers

WSJ870818-0002

Northwest Jet That Crashed in Detroit Had Engine Problems in Prior Years --- A Wall Street Journal News Roundup

The Northwest Airlines jet that crashed Sunday in Detroit, killing at least 154 people, was involved in two incidents of engine failure in the past two years. According to Federal Aviation Administration records, the McDonnell Douglas Corp. MD-82 jet made emergency landings in 1985 and 1986 following the loss of power in one of its two engines. A Northwest spokesman confirmed that the incidents happened, but said they weren't related to Sunday's crash of Flight 255. Though federal investigators were looking into a number of possible causes for the crash, which occurred shortly after takeoff, engine failure appeared to be a likely culprit. According to Associated Press reports, some witnesses to the crash, including an air traffic controller, said they saw blue flame coming from one of the jetliner's engines just before it hit the ground and exploded into a fireball. The accident, the second-deadliest ever in the U.S., could have a broad range of effects on the airline industry regardless of the specific causes, aviation specialists said. Following a summer of near-misses, delays and other snafus, some airline specialists said the accident could serve as a catalyst for a reassessment of the nation's air-travel system. Unlike the recent near-misses, the Detroit accident doesn't appear related to air-traffic control problems. Even so, some congressional aides believe there will be a "spillover" effect, and that all aviation safety issues will now get closer scrutiny. Moreover, although service problems have been the focus of much of the attention in recent months, the debate may now center more strongly on safety issues. "There is going to be a lot of noise from Capitol Hill," said John Galipault, president of the Aviation Safety Institute. "This one is going under the microscope." Added a Senate Commerce Committee staff member: "Delays and other consumer concerns will end up in the back seat." In Detroit, federal crash inspectors and representatives of United Technologies Corp.'s Pratt & Whitney unit, the engine maker, arrived at the accident scene. Officials said that the aircraft's flight recorders, which record cockpit conversations, had been found in wreckage that extended over half a mile. The MD-82 jet, which has a good safety record, is designed to be able to take off and land even if one engine fails. Safety officials wouldn't speculate on whether the plane's heavy load may have contributed to the crash. In addition to a large fuel load for the flight to Phoenix, Ariz., the flight was jammed with passengers. There were 153 people on a plane with 143 passenger seats. The extras included six crew members, two babies who were being held by passengers and two Northwest employees riding on two of the plane's jump seats. Wire-service reports said two persons on the ground also were killed, and that a 4-year-old girl was hospitalized in critical condition. Late last night, the Associated Press reported that the girl was identified by her grandfather. Her father, mother and brother were passengers on the Northwest airliner and died in the crash. The JT8D-219 engines used on the jet have been the subject of some concern among federal safety officals. In April, the National Transportation Safety Board urged the FAA to conduct a safety investigation of the 200 series of JT8D engines after some dangerous in-flight engine failures. The board made the recommendation after a March 23 incident in which an American Airlines MD-82 plane approaching the Minneapolis airport experienced an engine surge and loss of power. The engine, a JT8D-217A, was shut down, and the plane landed without further trouble. A later inspection showed that all 44 of the pins used to lock jet-engine turbine-vane clusters to the outer part of the turbine case had fractured. The board recommended that the FAA order inspections of the JT8D engines to detect any pin fractures and to replace existing ones with improved pins. The board said similar incidents involved Pacific Southwest Airlines and Muse Airlines. The FAA, in a May 29 response, told the board it essentially agreed with its recommendations and would take steps to require inspections of the engine and replacement of parts where necessary. The new rules, proposed last month, will go into effect this fall, FAA officials said. In its April report, the National Transportation Safety Board warned that "many" of the 330 MD-80 series airplanes operated by 12 U.S. and 14 foreign airlines world-wide "are potential candidates" for engine failure. More than 900 of the engines have been manufactured, according to the board. However, engineering changes have been made in some engines. In others, airlines have made changes, based on a Pratt & Whitney service bulletin, to reduce the risk of pin failure. Thomas Haueter, of the safety recommendations staff of the safety agency, said that the board hadn't put out an emergency recommendation for immediate replacement of the pins because it was unclear if the problems that had occurred were merely isolated incidents or reflected system problems. FAA officials at the crash scene wouldn't speculate on the reasons for the crash or comment on the plane's engines. John Lauber, one of five members of the National Transportation Safety Board, said at a news conference at a hotel near the airport last night that there was no evidence at this point that either engine exploded or caught fire during flight. He stressed that it was too early to draw any firm conclusions. A board spokesman said it will take nine to 12 months to determine the probable cause of the accident. Despite an excellent safety record, Northwest could be hurt in a number of ways by the crash. Among other things, the accident has focused attention on its recent service problems as well as discord among its workers. The airline early yesterday denied that its labor troubles may have played a role in the crash. Such concerns arose following reports of a work slowdown by Northwest mechanics. In January, the Federal Bureau of Investigation began investigating incidents of alleged tampering with Northwest planes in Minneapolis. Northwest, a unit of Minneapolis-based NWA Inc., also has had a rash of service problems since its acquisition of Republic Airlines last year. There were reports yesterday that relatives of crash victims being flown in from Phoenix were asked to switch from one Northwest jet to another because of mechanical problems. The MD-82 that crashed was a former Republic jet that Northwest acquired as part of the merger. The two emergency landings that involved the jetliner, number N312RC, took place in Minneapolis and San Francisco. In the Minneapolis incident, the plane landed missing part of its tail cone. A Northwest spokesman said the engines involved in those two incidents had since been replaced by other JT8D-200 series engines. The FAA said in Washington that air-traffic controllers in Detroit gave the Northwest flight takeoff clearance for Runway 3C, the center of the airport's three runways. The controllers reported that shortly after the jetliner lifted off, it pitched from left to right, according to FAA spokesman John Leyden. Then they "saw a blue flash from the left engine," Mr. Leyden said. "The left wing hit the ground, and the aircraft burst into flames," according to the controllers' account. FAA records show that besides those incidents that involved the plane that crashed, problems with the turbine sections of JT8D-200 series engines occurred on three Republic flights in the past four years. None of those problems resulted in a serious accident. In one such incident, in September 1983, falling debris from an engine caused fire damage to several homes around John Wayne International Airport in Orange County, Calif. In another incident, at the Detroit airport in October 1985, an engine on an MD-82 "popped and began to unspool" on takeoff. Later inspection revealed extensive turbine damage to the engine, the FAA report said. An FAA official said all jetliners, in order to be certified, must be capable of completing their takeoff ascent even if one engine fails, provided the aircraft is within prescribed weight limits. Why the Northwest airliner failed to make the climb and whether it was carrying too much weight will be subjects for federal investigators, he said. Congress is expected to act on a half-dozen major aviation bills this fall. Staff members now expect those bills to attract new measures aimed at improving safety.

dangerous in-flight engine failures;federal crash inspectors;aviation safety issues;emergency landings;northwest airlines jet;crash victims;detroit;safety investigation;heavy load

WSJ870908-0047

De Beers Plans to Raise Diamond Prices By 10% Next Month as Demand Surges --- By Neil Behrmann Staff Reporter of The Wall Street Journal

Flexing its muscles as a cartel, De Beers Consolidated Mines Ltd. is raising its diamond prices an average 10% next month. The South African concern, which controls 80% of the world diamond market through its London-based Central Selling Organization, sells a vast array of diamonds, varying in quality and size, dealers say. So the increase could be as much as 20% on top-grade diamonds. The rise follows an average price increase of 14.5% last year. "The diamond price increase was expected," said Jacques Zucker, of Lachowsky Zucker, diamond dealers in Antwerp, Belgium. By changing the mix of diamonds that it sells to dealers several months ago, De Beers signaled to the market that it intended to raise quotes, he said. "Few listened to us two years ago when we advised clients to buy diamonds at depressed values," Mr. Zucker said. "Now they must accept higher prices." "The price rise provides the necessary psychological lift to the market," said Peter Miller, a mining analyst at Shearson Lehman Securities in London. It will help the diamond producers "consolidate their gains." Prices of one-carat D-flawless diamonds have risen to about $14,800 a carat from $12,000 at the beginning of the year, dealers said. In 1985, at the low point of a deep slump, a top quality stone was $8,500 a carat, down from an average of $55,000 in 1980. A carat equals 200 milligrams. De Beers decided to raise prices because rough diamonds were already trading at a premium over its own quotes on the open market, said Andrew Lamont, a company spokesman. Demand is especially buoyant in the Far East. In the first seven months of 1987, Japanese imports of polished diamonds surged 60% from the similar period last year to $777 million, he added. After the U.S., Japan is the second biggest diamond jewelry market, followed by West Germany. Only one out of 17 Japanese couples bought engagement rings less than two decades ago; now more than two-thirds buy. "The sharp appreciation of the yen reduced the cost of diamonds for Japanese buyers," Mr. Lamont says. Stronger currencies and lower interest rates in West Germany and other European countries also boosted diamond sales, he says. Diamonds are priced in U.S. dollars. Demand for polished diamonds in the U.S., Hong Kong, Thailand, Singapore, Korea, and the Philippines also raised exports of the leading diamond cutting and dealing centers, primarily Antwerp, Tel Aviv, Bombay and New York. To meet growing orders from diamond dealers and cutters who supply the retail trade, De Beers sales of rough diamonds jumped to $1.56 billion in the first half of this year from $1.2 billion in the similar period in 1986. Sales of $2.56 billion last year were the highest since the 1980 boom when De Beers turnover reached $2.72 billion. Analysts are predicting sales of $3 billion in 1987. Yet some dealers worry because world diamond production surged to 89.6 million carats last year from 47 million carats in 1982. Only about 10% to 20% of the diamonds are gems, but De Beers must continue to find new markets, they say. De Beers surprised skeptics and revived trade from the slump in the first half of the decade by withholding stocks and pursuing an intensive marketing campaign. An advertising and promotion budget which rose to $110 million this year from $43 million in 1980 helped raise world-wide sales of diamond jewelry to a record 49 million pieces valued at $24.6 billion last year. In 1979, about 42 million pieces valued at $16 billion were sold, De Beers says. In more than half a century of its existence, the Central Selling Organization, which includes as members black African state producers, has outlasted other commodity cartels by never cutting diamond prices. The cartel controls most of the world's rough diamond market via a "pipeline" that stretches from mines in Africa to Australia to diamond dealers and cutters.

diamond prices;diamond price increase;south african concern;diamond jewelry market;diamond sales;london-based central selling organization;world diamond production;diamond dealers;world diamond market;de beers consolidated mines ltd.

WSJ871215-0109

)HL REVIEW & OUTLOOK (Editorial): Welfare's Trojan Horse

How much more of an "investment" should American taxpayers make in the welfare system? This is the question the House of Representatives is scheduled to take up today when it votes on the Family Welfare Reform Act of 1987. The bill proposes $5.2 billion in new spending over five years, and most of that will increase benefits currently received by welfare recipients. It appears that what we have here is something of a Trojan horse -- a piece of legislation that is represented as "reform" when all it does is expand existing welfare programs. The bill's questionable premise is that larger expenditures on welfare will reduce welfare dependency. This thinking was nicely summarized by Rep. Anthony Beilenson, who said plainly, "The truth is, for welfare reform to be successful, it's got to be expensive." The proposed new spending on welfare should be viewed as an investment, say its proponents, led by Rep. Thomas Downey. They point out that part of the money will go for special education, training and work programs for welfare mothers, to induce them off the rolls and into jobs. At the same time they say, certain existing benefits -- mainly Aid to Families With Dependent Children (AFDC) -- must be increased to offset real declines since the base year of 1970. House members on both sides of the aisle agree that welfare-to-work programs are worthwhile. That conclusion was presumably the basis for the bipartisan consensus that was going to produce a serious welfare-reform bill this year. But less than a quarter of the $5.2 billion outlay would go for that purpose. The bulk of the new money would go to higher AFDC pay-outs, extension of mandatory benefits to two-parent families and maintenance of certain benefits for welfare recipients earning some income. In short, the Family Welfare Reform Act amounts to an expanded investment in the status quo. Of course, House Democrats could hardly promote this bill as more of the same. That might produce reprisals from voters who've watched their tax dollars build and maintain the welfare system, with little evident return on their investment. Instead, after nearly 20 years, the system's defenders and funders repeatedly tell the public that the problem, if anything, has gotten worse. So the House's liberal majority hoped to achieve an increase in welfare outlays by making a bow to "reform." In fact, while the level of AFDC benefits has decreased in real terms since 1970, the total level of all welfare benefits has not. Nearly all AFDC families also receive Medicaid coverage, for instance; more than three-quarters receive food stamps, and one-third have children who receive free school meals. One-quarter receive housing assistance. Together, spending for the seven major welfare programs (those just mentioned plus the Women, Infants and Children program and the Low Income Energy Assistance program) has actually increased since 1970 by 232% in constant dollars, to an annual total $65.7 billion. The House Democrats' claim that welfare recipients are worse off than they were in 1970 -- in terms of the level of benefits received -- is dubious. Measured in the terms that really count -- namely the number of welfare dependents liberated from the rolls -- the situation has become worse. During the unprecedented expansion of the welfare state, the most notable and highly publicized phenomenon has been the development of an entrenched class of long-term welfare dependents. It is difficult to accept that the $4.3 billion increase in basic benefits proposed in the Family Welfare Reform Act will do much of anything about the problem of hard-core welfare dependency. At the least, welfare reform should have these goals: to shrink rather than enlarge the welfare system, to ultimately eliminate perverse incentives to remain on welfare, and to make work the focus of the system. The House bill doesn't do that. By adding several welfare programs to what already exists (without eliminating any), the House bill adds another layer to an already complex welfare system. By further increasing rather than gradually reducing the level of benefits available to recipients, it makes welfare more, not less, enticing. By diluting proposed work-for-welfare requirements, it diminishes the importance of work. Earlier this year, there were hopeful signs that we would see sweeping, serious welfare-reform legislation emerge from Congress. Democrats and Republicans alike agreed on the need for change. This rare opportunity is being squandered.

welfare system;house democrats;welfare recipients;welfare reform;american taxpayers;welfare programs;welfare benefits;investment;welfare dependency

WSJ871216-0037

Bank of Boston's Loan Write-Off Plan Is Expected to Have Wide Repercussions --- By Peter Truell Staff Reporter of The Wall Street Journal

Bank of Boston Corp.'s decision to treat its Third World loans much more conservatively is expected to have significant domestic and international repercussions, bankers and analysts say. Domestically, the move reflects the competitive advantage that regional banks with large loan-loss reserves have over their big brothers in such money centers as New York, Chicago and San Francisco. Internationally, it appears that it will be even more difficult for economically troubled developing nations to attract new bank loans. U.S. banks are increasingly splitting into two groups. On one hand, there is a small group of money-center banks with comparatively thin reserves against large loans to developing countries. On the other hand is a group of regional institutions which, with relatively small exposure to developing countries, are willing to establish big reserves against such loans or, as Bank of Boston decided Monday, to completely write off some loans as uncollectible. "It's a parting of the ways between the money centers who are out to collect on their assets and the regionals who want to get out," says Lawrence Cohn, an analyst at Merrill Lynch & Co. The Bank of Boston decision "may well drive a wedge between the money-center banks and the regional banks," adds James J. McDermott, Jr., director of research at Keefe Bruyette & Woods Inc., a securities firm which specializes in bank stocks. "It's created an enormous quandary for many money-center banks," Mr. McDermott says. Actions such as that taken by Bank of Boston highlight a potential competitive edge that regional banks have over money-center banks. Management could use their reserve position to emphasize stength when competing for deposits and banking business against larger banks. The reserve action also could make it easier for institutions like Bank of Boston to attract investors to their stock and other securities, bank analysts said. While the large banks are eager to remain competitive with such regionals as Bank of Boston, they also want to ensure that the regionals continue to lend to heavily indebted developing nations. Earlier this year, Bank of Boston proved one of the more difficult regionals to corral into a $6 billion bank loan for Mexico, according to New York bankers. Now that Bank of Boston has reserved and written off most of its loans to less-developed countries, it's likely to be much less willing to join any such new efforts. That could add to the lending burden for the biggest U.S. banks. Moreover, most of the nation's big banks couldn't afford to follow Bank of Boston's lead without crippling their capital, and reducing their common equity-asset ratios to unacceptably low levels. For instance, if Manufacturers Hanover Corp. imitated Bank of Boston's action, it would have to add $3.13 billion to reserves and would have a common assets ratio of only 0.69%, Keefe Bruyette estimates. In order to take steps similar to Bank of Boston's, large money-center banks would have to sell assets, shrink balance sheets and slash dividends -- and they show little sign of doing that. Yesterday, Manufacturers Hanover announced a regular quarterly dividend of 82 cents a share, offering investors a yield of more than 13% annually. Manufacturers Hanover declined to comment on whether it might follow Bank of Boston's action. Other large New York banks also declined to disclose their plans, although a spokeman for Chase Manhattan Corp., said, "We're obviously looking at it." Mellon Bank Corp. said yesterday that it expects a fourth-quarter loss of about $220 million, and that it would increase loan-loss reserves by about $180 million to cover troubled foreign loans. The stocks of several major money-center banks fell sharply yesterday in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. Chase Manhattan skidded $2.25 to close at $20.125, Manufacturers Hanover fell $2.375 to $24.25, and J.P. Morgan & Co. was off $1.50 to $30. Bank of Boston closed up 50 cents at $20.75, while Mellon fell $1 to $26.25. Analysts expect that other regional banks may copy the action taken by Bank of Boston. "I wouldn't be surprised if some of the medium-sized regionals decided to follow," said Cheryl Swaim, an analyst and vice president at Oppenheimer & Co. In Boston, there were rumors Bank of New England might announce a similar move, but a company spokesman said "reserve levels are appropriate." Bank of Boston announced Monday that it was writing off $200 million of loans to less-developed countries and that it was placing all but a small portion of its loans to the Third World on a non-accrual basis. When a loan is placed on non-accrual, a bank only credits interest it actually receives, and doesn't automatically accrue interest due. Bank of Boston also placed on non-accrual $470 million in loans to less-developed countries that are unrelated to trade. Along with $330 million in such loans previously put on non-accrual, Bank of Boston has now either charged off, or put on non-accrual, all of its $1 billion loans to heavily indebted developing countries. This doesn't include $170 million in trade-related debt. While Bank of Boston's action is the most striking to date to remove Latin exposure from its balance sheet, smaller similar actions began at other banks around mid-year. First Bank System Inc., Minneapolis, the nation's 15th biggest banking concern, charged off $25.4 million in troubled foreign loans during the third quarter. First Chicago Corp., the 11th largest banking concern, charged off $48.9 million in Third World loans during the quarter. And even before the big reserves were set aside, banks were quietly charging off Latin debt, though on a smaller scale. Last March, Continental Illinois Corp. said it had charged off about half of its $100 million of loans to Peru. Continental wouldn't comment yesterday on Bank of Boston's action.

regional banks;boston corp;loan-loss reserves;developing countries;money-center banks;u.s. banks;third world loans

WSJ880617-0024

White House Moves to Deal With Drought --- Farm Export Subsidy Curbs Are Mulled; Stock Prices Drop on Inflation Fears --- This article was prepared by Bruce Ingersoll in Washington And Scott Kilman and Alex Kotlowitz in Chicago

The Reagan administration moved to deal with the worsening drought, and a top trade official said that farm export subsidies may have to be curbed. Meanwhile, fears mounted that the fragile recovery of agriculture-related industries will be derailed by continuing lack of rain. Concern that the drought could fuel inflation drove stocks and bonds sharply lower yesterday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 37.16 points to close at 2094.24, while U.S. government bonds fell more than 1 1/2 points. Grain and soybean futures continued their drought-driven rally. President Reagan appointed an interagency group to deal with the drought and Agriculture Secretary Richard Lyng authorized farmers in drought parched counties in 13 states to harvest hay on idled crop land in the government's Conservation Reserve Program. White House spokesman Marlin Fitzwater said that the president is "very concerned" about the drought, and "wants to make certain that everything that the federal government can do to assist will be done." While he wouldn't predict what kind of disaster relief might be authorized, Mr. Fitzwater said the drought "certainly is going to drive up food prices. We've already seen some increases in some products." But he said the administration doesn't believe the drought will have "overall implications for the economy." At a news briefing, Special Trade Representative Clayton Yeutter warned that the administration may have to curb its so-called export enhancement program if the drought becomes even worse. This program is designed to boost farm exports by reimbursing U.S. exporters for the difference between the prices they receive for grain and other commodities in world markets and higher U.S. prices. "Clearly, we will have to appraise very carefully the desirability of using export enhancement funds at a time when (U.S.) supplies are unpredictable," Mr. Yeutter said. Shrinking soybean stockpiles and soaring prices have stirred speculation that the government may impose an embargo on exports of soybeans and soybean products. Growers still complain about the 1973 embargo, which they say hurt the nation's reputation as a reliable supplier. But Mr. Yeutter said he would "vigorously" oppose any embargo on U.S. soybean exports. Earlier this week, Agriculture Secretary Richard Lyng took an equally adamant stand against such an embargo. Before the drought began damaging crops this month, the year was shaping up as one of the best in the decade for rural industries that depend on farmers. Hefty government subsidies on last year's strong harvests put a record amount of cash into farmers pockets. But bankers that lend to farmers suddenly are worrying anew about their borrower's financial health. Farm equipment makers say they are concerned that sales could suffer. Realtors in rural areas say that land prices, which had just begun to turn around, may be affected. For many, the drought couldn't come at a worse time. "This is probably putting a damper on one of the most optimistic years in the last eight years," says Richard Hahn, president and chief executive of an Omaha, Neb.-based farm management concern. In April, the price of good-quality Iowa farm land was one-third higher than it was a year earlier. Tractor sales by farm equipment dealers were up 12.8% during the first five months of the year. Now, with farmers in many Midwest states expecting smaller harvests this year, these businesses are seeing their new-found trade evaporating. "Everybody is watching the dollars they have," says Allen Olson, a vice president of the National Bank of Harvey, N.D., where the drought has already halved the potential yield of the local wheat crop. "People are borrowing minimal amounts." Few in farming expect the drought to trigger an agricultural recession, although more farmers could go bankrupt because of it. But all bets are off on how farmers will fare at the end of this year's harvests. While crop prices are soaring on weather-worries, yields may be so low in many areas that farmers won't do nearly as well as expected. If farmers are strapped for cash this year, the effects would ripple throughout the farm economy. Bob Pfiefer, owner of a Massey-Ferguson farm equipment dealership in Sioux Falls, S.D., says he has already canceled some orders for fear that sales will soon begin dropping off. If the drought continues, he says, "it could bring us to our knees again." In Franklin, Tenn., implement dealer Larry Holt is slashing his fall orders by one-third, even though sales so far this year are up roughly 25%. He expects sales for the rest of this year to drop 10% to 20% from the second-half of 1987. J.I. Case, the farm implement-making unit of Tenneco Inc., is considering cutting production schedules if the drought continues through July. "It's already getting harder to sell farmers tractors because of the drought," says James K. Ashford, Case president and chief executive officer. He said that if the drought continues, industrywide tractor sales could turn flat next year instead of climbing the 5% to 6% that was originally forecast for 1989. Among rural banks, loan problems are expected to rise and profits to fall. "Before the drought we expected a very solid year" for farm lenders, says Mark Drabenstott, an economist at the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank. "There are a lot of question marks right now." Many rural lenders this spring were banking on farmers losing some of their post-farm crisis inhibitions about going into hock. One of the biggest problems for farm banks has been that their number of loans, a major source of bank income, has shriveled as farmers paid off their debts with last year's profits. In Anadarko, Okla., bankers worry now that ranchers are going to make less money this year because crop damage is escalating the cost of feeding cattle. "The drought is going to hurt us because it hurts the cattle market," says Lance Shenold, a vice president of Anadarko Bank & Trust Co. The land boom is wilting. Because of the drought, Iowa realtors expect land prices to rise somewhat less than the 5% to 10% they had been expecting. "Everybody has just kind of pulled in their horns," says Jim Frevert, vice president of Hertz Farm Management Inc., Nevada, Iowa. A big drop in harvests this year could squeeze investors who had planned on good yields to help pay their real estate loans. Most of the farmers who have bought land recently did so for cash, but many of the urban investors got in on credit, real estate agents say. Among all the uncertainty, however, some are looking for a silver lining.

export enhancement program;export enhancement funds;drought-driven rally;drought damage;worsening drought;reagan administration;disaster relief;food prices;farm economy;farm export

WSJ880621-0079

Under Fire: World Bank's Conable Runs Into Criticism On Poor Nations' Debt --- Liberals Assail His Refusal To Give Much Assistance; He Defends His Policies --- One Issue: His Ties to Baker

World Bank President Barber Conable was so well regarded during his 20-year career as a Republican congressman from New York that some journalists nicknamed him "H.R." -- for "highly respected." And to many on Capitol Hill, Mr. Conable still is. Rep. Tom Foley, a liberal Democrat from Washington State, calls him "a very strong asset" to the 151-nation institution "because of the enormous respect he has on both sides of the aisle." But at the World Bank, Mr. Conable finds himself under fire. After a year and a half in office, he has failed to move the bank into a leadership role on the Third World debt problem. "The World Bank has been reluctant to step out on this issue in confrontation and conflict with the Treasury," charges Sen. Bill Bradley, a New Jersey Democrat and Congress's leading voice on the debt problem. Rep. John LaFalce, a New York Democrat and another leader on the issue, agrees. "There surely is a much larger role for the World Bank in the debt problem than it has played so far, but they just can't get out ahead of the administration," he says. While the debt morass has deepened, Mr. Conable's World Bank has looked inward, shuffling its organization charts around in a disruptive reorganization and then campaigning for a $74.8 billion increase in its capital. As Congress considers the increase, liberal critics on Capitol Hill are demanding that Mr. Conable show he is ready to use the bank's vast resources to make some direct impact on reducing the huge burden of Third World debt. House Democrats, in fact, cut out of the foreign-aid bill passed last month all $70 million the administration had sought for the first year of the U.S. share of the increase in capital. The deletion was made pending action by a committee looking into the bank's approach to the debt crisis. So far, Mr. Conable has approached the debt crisis more like a cautious financier than a bold politician. He has clung to the bank's traditional role of a conventional lender and adviser to developing nations and has deferred on ideas about the debt to the man who picked him for his job -- U.S. Treasury Secretary James Baker. Mr. Conable subscribes to the "Baker Plan," which stresses new lending by commercial banks and the World Bank to debtor countries that adopt growth-oriented, market-based economic reforms. The bank has tried to help the countries by tiding them over with some new loans. That policy contrasts sharply with some of the more aggressive debt-reduction plans. Sen. Bradley, worried that the debt burden stalls growth and threatens political stability in developing countries, proposes that Third World debtors be required to make certain economic reforms; in return, their lending banks would forgive some of the loans and write them down on their books. Even the World Bank's longtime financial wizard, Eugene Rotberg -- who quit the bank for Merrill Lynch over Mr. Conable's reorganization plan -- proposed last month that the World Bank guarantee new 20-year commercial-bank loans to Third World countries. Other experts advocate a "debt facility" to buy and refinance the debts. Defending his approach to the debt problem, Mr. Conable explains: "We aren't a financial institution but a development institution. We can't go to our member countries and say, 'Give us a tremendous capital increase so we can assume the obligations of all these other creditors that a developing country owes.' Obviously, that would be viewed as our not performing a development function but our simply accepting other people's risks." But critics reject that view. Jeffrey Sachs, a Harvard economist who has offered one of many debt-reduction plans, says the World Bank's officials "have the great potential to play a central role in the problem, but they're basically ducking. There is a lack of intellectual leadership within the bank itself." Even some Reagan administration officials privately despair of Mr. Conable's leadership and fear that it may have been a mistake to appoint him. While financial experts often urge the bank to do more, the ponderous institution has intervened only about half a dozen times in debt crises, usually just to guarantee a small portion of a commercial-bank loan package. Mr. Conable makes it clear that it won't do that often. Recently, commercial-bank lenders to Brazil tried to get the World Bank to insure a portion of a big new loan package they were negotiating. But the U.S. Treasury was firmly opposed to the idea, saying it was unnecessary in Brazil's case and might foster the impression that such guarantees should be common. Secretary Baker says Mr. Conable is being criticized largely by legislators and academicians who favor grand debt-relief schemes that would "take the debt and put it on the backs of the taxpayers. I'll tell you who'll pay for it: you and me when we file our 1040s. It's a bad idea. They want Barber to subscribe to it, and I think that he sees that it's a bad idea." Yet even inside the bank, there is increasing worry that the Third World debt -- totaling $1.19 trillion last year -- frustrates the bank's goals. Because of "chronic debt problems . . . the development process in these countries has stalled," the World Bank said earlier this year. Also within the bank's own ranks, there is talk that could lead to a more aggressive role on debt once President Reagan leaves office. "Baker's approach has to be adapted to the circumstances of today," says the bank's No. 2 man, Operations Vice President Moeen Qureshi. "Perhaps we have excessively underplayed our own role." He adds, "It seems to me it will be desirable, in the present environment, to see what can be done" to reduce debt, rather than just lend new money. Partly in response to the external and internal pressures, Mr. Conable sent a debt study to his board early in April. "The likelihood is that the bank will need to play a more extensive and diversified role in two areas: new money packages and facilitating other forms of financial relief, including debt-reduction schemes," declares the study, which was drafted by David Bock, a vice president and the bank's debt expert. The document even says that for a few debtors, "consensual debt relief," including "outright forgiveness," might be the only workable solution, but it stresses that the bank must avoid moves that threaten the "preservation of the bank's prime standing in financial markets." The bank's own annual world-debt report illustrates its determination to stick to a back-seat role on the issue. Published early this year, the report noted that the debtor countries' position "has stubbornly failed to improve," said "imagination and resolve are needed," and emphasized that "leadership will itself be crucially important." But conspicuously absent from the report, which discussed debt-relief proposals from Secretary Baker, Sen. Bradley and others, were any ideas from the bank itself. The World Bank's ethos is decidedly traditional.

world bank president;third world debt problem;debt burden;third world debtors;debt crisis;third world debt;barber conable;criticism

WSJ880923-0163

Back to Life: Yellowstone Park Begins Its Renewal --- Research Biologist Despain Roots Around in the Ash, Finds Reasons for Cheer

Wearing a bright yellow flame-retardant shirt, Donald Despain crouches down to study the ash-covered forest floor. The scorched hillside around him appears utterly lifeless. Almost everything in sight is black, from the tips of trees 40 feet above the ground to the powdered ash blanketing the earth. The firestorm that raged through here in recent weeks was driven by 60-mile-an-hour winds that fanned temperatures to more than 1,600 degrees Fahrenheit. The fire was so intense that a gray shadow on the forest floor is all that remains of a fallen log. Where many people recoil at the sweep of nature's destructive power, the 47-year-old Mr. Despain marvels at the tiny steps life is already taking to renew itself. As Yellowstone National Park's research biologist, he has already begun to monitor the forest's rebirth from the worst fire on record. His eyes red from the blowing ash, Mr. Despain patiently counts the quarter-inch lodgepole pine seed "wings" within a rectangular frame he places on the hillside. The tiny seeds are slowly released from rock-hard pine cones only after the cones have been seared by the passing flames; indeed, they require a fire to propagate themselves. The little wings act like the rotary blades of a helicopter in dispersing the seeds. "This is amazing," says Mr. Despain, reflecting on his count. "This works out to one million seeds an acre." Only about 500 mature trees were on an acre of hillside here before the fire. Of course, not all the seeds will become trees. Deer mice will eat some of them. Others won't take root. But next spring many of the seeds, fertilized by nutrients leaching into the soil from the snow-packed ash, will sprout, along with a bouquet of grasses, flowers and shrubs, as burnt areas of the park erupt with life. The profusion of pine seeds is just one of the rejuvenating forces at work in Yellowstone even as the fires, largely quenched this week by rain and snow, still smolder. Grasses and several types of wildflowers, ranging from fireweed to wild geraniums, are already sprouting less than seven weeks after fire roared past Grant Village near Yellowstone Lake. Next year, the ground cover replacing the park's burnt stands of aging lodgepole pines should provide a 30-fold increase in plant species. More edible plants, in turn, support larger, and more various populations of birds and other animals. "We see what's going on here not as devastation and destruction, but, rather, rebirth and renewal of these ecosystems," says John Varley, Yellowstone's chief of research and Mr. Despain's boss. Mr. Despain's research should play a major role in a new debate over whether to reforest burnt areas of Yellowstone or to let nature take its course. In recent years, environmentalists have for the most part succeeded in promoting the natural processes of the parks. But the approach is again under attack. The National Park Service has already been at the center of a much-publicized political firestorm over its 16-year-old "natural burn" policy, which allows lightning-caused fires to burn themselves out, except where they threaten towns or park buildings. Critics, including elected officials from Western states and the logging and tourist industries, have grabbed headlines by blaming that policy for fueling the inferno that this summer raged over half of Yellowstone's 2.2 million acres and cost more than $100 million to fight and clean up. Reforestation would give wooded areas in Yellowstone a "five-year jump" on natural regrowth of the woods and would "get it green again," says John Davis, Willamette Industries Inc.'s general manager for Western timber logging operations in Lewiston, Idaho. Gerald M. Freeman, the president and chief operating officer of Stone Forest Industries Inc., agrees: "Controlled burning, selective logging and reforestation are a much better way to manage the forests." The pressure to bring back Yellowstone's forest through reforestation may get intense. In an average year, 2.5 million tourists visit the huge park, and a drop-off because of the fire damage could severely hurt business. In August, with fires out of control, the tourist trade was off 30% here. The emotional appeal of replanting the parks already has led to some reforestation proposals -- some of them a bit off the wall. New Jersey's governor, Thomas Kean, for instance, announced that his state planned to donate thousands of evergreen seedlings to replant Yellowstone, apparently without realizing that none of the proffered species are indigenous to the park. Although the offer was later amended to include native varieties, the park service politely declined. Mr. Despain hopes that the scientific evidence that park researchers are gathering will testify to the forest's ability to renew itself, while countering emotional calls for human help. "When I hear the word 're-vegetation,' my blood runs cold," he says. Mr. Despain joined the park's research department in 1971 after finishing his doctorate at the University of Alberta on the plants of the Bighorn Mountains in northern Wyoming. He worked under Glen Cole, the park's head of research from 1968 to 1976 and a leading advocate of letting natural processes prevail in the park. Alston Chase, an author and park critic, describes Mr. Despain as one of the park's "most orthodox believers" in the official natural management policy. Mr. Despain has set up or is planning several long-term research projects to study the effects of this year's fires. In addition to his seed-counting, Mr. Despain has created nine "before and after" study plots to gauge effects of the fire. Within these 15-by-25-meter plots, he and other researchers cataloged the size and the number of lodgepole pines, as well as the variety of plant growth on the forest floor. (He had to abandon one such study area two weeks ago. Fire licked at its corners even as he was mapping the trees within.) After the fire is out, he surveys damage to a plot. Next spring he will chronicle rebirth. Some of the impulse to reforest Yellowstone may be based on a misapprehension of just how much damage has been done here. Television pictures of the Yellowstone's fires at their height made things look worse than they are. True, fire boundaries within the park cover about half the park's acreage. Yet only 10% to 15% of land within these boundaries was scorched by raging crown fires that burn everything in sight, Mr. Varley estimates. In fact, nearly half the area within the fire zones remains untouched by fire.

fire damage;ash-covered forest floor;rebirth;firestorm;scorched hillside;tiny seeds;worst fire

WSJ890828-0011

Politics & Policy: @ Problems Loom for Census as Congress Debates @ Whether Illegal Immigrants Are U.S. 'Persons' @ ---- @ By David Wessel @ Staff Reporter of The Wall Street Journal

Though the forms for the 1990 census are already at the printers, Congress is contemplating adding a question: Are you an illegal immigrant? The Census Bureau, as it has in the past, is planning to count all residents of the nation regardless of legal status. But the Senate already has voted to force the Census Bureau to exclude illegal immigrants in preparing tallies for congressional reapportionment. A majority of the members of the House of Representatives has signaled support. "It is wrong to apportion congressional seats by counting people who would be deported if our immigration laws were enforced," Rep. Thomas Petri (R., Wis.) said in a recent House debate. Replied Rep. Jim Kolbe (R., Ariz.): "A very clear reading of the Constitution says that we shall count all those who are present." Although the debate is often couched in constitutional arguments, it's largely driven by geography. Wisconsin has few illegal immigrants; Arizona has lots. "It boils down to regional politics," says Arturo Vargas, census-program director for the Mexican American Legal Defense and Educational Fund, one of several Hispanic organizations lobbying in favor of counting illegal immigrants. Counting illegal immigrants in 1990 is likely to mean one less seat in the House for Pennsylvania and one more for California, according to the private Population Reference Bureau. The Census Bureau's chief antagonist in the Senate, Sen. Richard Shelby (D., Ala.), says seats for Connecticut, Michigan, North Carolina and Alabama also are at risk. On the other hand, Texas, Florida and New York could benefit. "Illegal aliens are actually taking representation away from Americans," says David Ray, spokesman for the Federation for American Immigration Reform. The Census Bureau, based on comparisons of its data with figures kept by the Immigration and Naturalization Service, estimates that it counted about two million illegal immigrants in 1980, half of them in California. That meant one extra seat in the House for California and New York and one less seat for Indiana and Georgia. "You end up diluting the vote when you start including illegals," says Rep. Thomas Ridge (R., Pa.), who leads the charge against the practice in the House. Organizations that represent Hispanics are particularly worried about the congressional campaign. They fear that any attempt to ascertain the legal status of respondents will exacerbate difficulties the Census Bureau already faces in accurately counting Hispanics and blacks. "As it is, the Census Bureau has a tremendous challenge in trying to convince everybody that the census is confidential," Mr. Vargas says. "If the Census Bureau attempts to ask people their immigration status, that's going to be even harder." The Census Bureau agrees. "We tell people: Put your name down on the census form. We won't report you to the housing authority {if there are too many occupants}," says Peter Bonpanne, an assistant director. "If they see a lot of questions on there about somebody's legal status, that could hurt all kinds of people's participation." Although the 106 million census forms can be reprinted if Congress acts soon, wording a question so that illegal immigrants answer accurately is a challenge, Mr. Bonpanne says. The bureau already plans to ask one in six respondents if they are citizens. To satisfy congressional critics, it would have to ask everyone that question, and then ask the legal status of anyone who isn't a citizen. Rep. Ridge dismisses the practical problems. "We're spending billions on the census, and the only thing we get is a bunch of belly-aching about how difficult it will be," he complains. "The primary purpose of the census is to distribute political power . . . not to gather demographic information." The Senate, by a vote of 58-41, added a provision to a pending immigration bill to require the government to subtract illegal immigrants when it comes up with figures used for reapportionment. Because California, Texas and other populous states that benefit from counting the illegal immigrants have such large delegations in the House, the House has always presented a bigger obstacle to the opponents of counting such immigrants. The House did open the door to an amendment to a spending bill that would have barred census takers from "knowingly" counting any illegal immigrants, but the provision was quickly sidetracked on procedural grounds. All sides in the debate predict a lawsuit no matter what Congress does. In 1980, a federal appeals court upheld a lower-court decision throwing out a suit that sought to bar the government from counting illegal immigrants. A similar suit was dismissed this year when a federal district judge in Pittsburgh ruled that the states that sued -- Pennsylvania, Kansas and Alabama -- couldn't show they had been harmed. The Constitution simply calls for apportioning the House on the basis of the "the whole number of persons" in each state. The Constitution originally called for counting "free persons" and indentured servants, and for counting slaves as three-fifths of a person. That was changed with the passage of the 14th Amendment in 1868. Only "Indians not taxed" were excluded, but no one has fallen into that category since 1940. Much of the argument in Congress turns on the use of the word "person" in references to the census. Elsewhere in the Constitution, the framers used the word "citizen." They wrote, for instance, that only those who have been "seven years a citizen of the United States" can serve in the House. The word "person" was repeated in the 14th Amendment, which was drafted after the Civil War. Those in Congress and at the Census Bureau who favor continuing the practice of counting all residents of the U.S. conclude that this language unambiguously resolves the debate. Their opponents say the drafters of the Constitution and the 14th Amendment never even considered the concept of an "illegal immigrant," let alone contemplated their current numbers. --- @ Estimates of Illegal Aliens @ Counted in 1980 Census @ TOTAL U.S. 2,057,000 @ California 1,024,000 @ New York 234,000 @ Texas 186,000 @ Illinois 135,000 @ Florida 80,000 @ Source: Census Bureau

congressional campaign;1990 census;congressional seats;illegal immigrants;census bureau;congressional reapportionment;illegal aliens

WSJ900418-0193

REVIEW & OUTLOOK (Editorial): Lawmakers for Life

The root of the problems with Congress is that, barring major scandal, it is almost impossible to defeat an incumbent. In the past three elections, 96% or more of House incumbents who ran won. This lack of turnover has resulted in legislative arrogance, a dearth of new ideas and unaccountability. Congress just violated its legal budget deadline; where are the special prosecutors? Franking privileges, huge staffs, gerrymandering and unfair campaign finance laws have combined to give incumbents a grossly unfair advantage. One out of four House districts this year likely will have an incumbent running with no major-party opposition -- up from one out of five in 1988. One-candidate races are now spreading to the Senate. Democratic Arkansas Senator David Pryor had spirited competition in 1984 when he won with 57%; this year he has no opponent at all. Senators have become just as brazen as their House brethren in shutting out competition. Take Republican Senator Larry Pressler's latest mailing to South Dakotans. It contains five pictures of the Senator and mentions his name 29 times on four pages. Last year, Mr. Pressler sent out more than 2.8 million pieces of mail, the equivalent of 10 pieces per household. Critics of term-limits say that -- franked mail or not -- it's wrong to blame Congress for the now nearly 100% re-election rates since it is just as easy to vote against an incumbent as for. Michael Kinsley writes in the New Republic that if incumbents always win, it's because voters can't be bothered. This presumes that voters can find out who the other candidate is. It is a political axiom that people won't vote for someone they know nothing about. That takes money, and skewed campaign finance laws combined with taxpayer-paid junk mail effectively mean that only incumbents have the cash to make themselves known and to be taken seriously by the media. Incumbents ended the 1988 elections with $63 million left over, while challengers were able to raise and spend a total of only $39 million. Some complain that limiting terms would infringe on democracy by not allowing voters to elect whom they please. The polls indicate voters by two to one think the only way they can control Congress effectively is by limiting terms. We also note that these critics are not agitating in support of Ronald Reagan's call for repeal of the two-term limit for Presidents. A big problem of the current system limiting Presidents but not Congress is that this means political power is constantly tipped in favor of the legislative branch. Getting incumbents to reduce the advantages they have voted themselves is something like asking banks to leave their vaults unlocked. That's why the Washington, D.C.-based Americans to Limit Congressional Terms is asking states to call for a constitutional amendment to limit terms. It already has won in Utah and South Dakota. This fall, the group will try to get both incumbents and challengers to pledge they will not serve more than 12 years in office. Self-imposed limits on office-holding were once part of this country's public-service ethic, with Members returning to private life after a couple of terms. As late as 1860, the average length of House service was four years. The number of freshmen in a new House never dipped below 30% until 1901. In the current House it is 8%. Term limitation, once the accepted American tradition, has been replaced by congressional careerism. The opinion polls for term limitation show that the voters don't like the change. They now think the voluntary service limitation of the past must be made mandatory. --- Curbing the Incumbents Do you think there should be a limit to the number of times a member of the House of Representatives can be elected to a two-year term, or not? FAVOR OPPOSE Total Sample 61% 31% By Party Republicans 64% 28% Democrats 60 30 By Philosophy/Ideology Liberal 58 34 Moderate 64 30 Conservative 63 29 By Presidential Preference Voters pro-Bush 61 32 Voters anti-Bush 60 28 By Race White 61 31 Black 61 27 By Gender Men 57 35 Women 63 27 Source: New York Times/CBS News poll. Survey of 1,515 adults conducted March 30-April 2, 1990, with a 3% margin of error.

house incumbents;unfair campaign finance laws;unfair advantage;voluntary service limitation;legislative arrogance;constitutional amendment;congressional careerism;opinion polls;limit congressional terms;term limitation

WSJ900615-0131

British Government Says It Won't Help Fund High-Speed Rail Link to `Chunnel' ---- By Barbara Toman Staff Reporter of The Wall Street Journal

Sarah Talbot-Williams, a spokeswoman for the Confederation of British Industry, Britain's main employers' group says, "1992 is going to produce a much more competitive market. "If we don't have the infrastructure to get the goods to Europe, we'll continue our status as an island." Long plagued by soaring costs and drilling delays, the tunnel now looks set to open on time in June 1993. British diggers, who once lagged months behind schedule, currently are just one week behind; their French counterparts are running three months ahead of plan. And although the project's estimated cost has soared to #7.66 billion ($13.11 billion) from #4.9 billion, tunnel executives have obtained underwriting for an equity rights offer and preliminary agreement for more bank loans to cover the added cost. "There will be no more talk of crisis," says Alastair Morton, chief executive officer of Eurotunnel PLC, the consortium building the cross-channel link. "The money will be together this year, and the project will be clear from there." But the lack of a high-speed rail link to London, and improved service beyond, means Britain may miss out on the tunnel's total benefits. "There is a danger of not being able to exploit the tunnel to its full potential," says Prof. Christopher Nash, a transport expert at Leeds University in Northern England. The government's refusal to help fund a fast rail service between London and the tunnel terminal at Folkestone culminates an 18-month squabble. European Rail Link Ltd., a consortium formed last November to build the rail link, had asked the government to contribute #350 million towards the total #2.6 billion cost of the link. Transport Secretary Cecil Parkinson told the House of Commons that the consortium's plans involved "unacceptable" risks for taxpayers. He said British Rail, which owns 50% of the consortium, would consider other options for a fast-rail link. But no one expects a viable scheme anytime soon. Defending the decision, Mrs. Thatcher earlier told Parliament that the government already had earmarked almost #2 billion for chunnel-related projects, including #600 million on roads leading to the tunnel and #1.3 billion in passenger and freight rail services. But that didn't satisfy opposition legislators. "Britain will enter the 21st century with an inadequate 19th-century railway link," said John Prescott, the Labour Party's transportation spokesman. As a result of Thursday's decision, the journey time to London from Paris will be about three hours -- 30 minutes longer than with a high-speed rail link. Passengers boarding high-speed trains in Paris will zoom at 180 miles an hour north to Calais, slow to 100 miles an hour through the tunnel, then crawl at an average of 60 miles an hour across southeast England's crowded commuter belt. "The traffic will now speed through as far as our side of the tunnel, and then the men with red flags will lead it on to London," complains Keith Speed, a Conservative member of Parliament whose constituency is near the tunnel terminal. Eurotunnel insists the tunnel will be financially viable without the high-speed rail link. The tunnel-building consortium argues that only 39% of its total revenue will come from direct London-to-Paris trains; the real money-spinner will be freight traffic hauled by road to the tunnel, then loaded onto special Eurotunnel wagons for the journey under the channel. "We make more money on road traffic using our tunnel," Mr. Morton says. "There is in no sense a feeling we must have that link to make the tunnel successful." But Mr. Morton admits he wants to see the high-speed link built, professing it would divert traffic from southeast England's clogged roads. The high-speed link "will be a benefit for us," he says, "but essential for the country." Some analysts go further, arguing the tunnel indeed needs better rail links if it is to compete with improving ferry and air services. "A high-speed link which covers {only} part of the route proves to be fairly uncompetitive with other transportation modes," says Bill Steinmetz, vice president of transport for consultants Booz-Allen & Hamilton Inc. in London. "If you're going to build high-speed rail, you have to decide how to provide complete links. It's like having part of a house built. It may function, but you do worry about it." The worries don't end in London. North of the capital, industrialists fear poor railway links will isolate them on the fringes of the European Community's single market. "The Channel Tunnel is a marvelous addition to the infrastructure," says David Merrill, corporate-affairs director at Pilkington PLC, the big glass maker based in St. Helens in Northwest England. But "it's important that the quality of the rail network and capacity is improved. I don't think there's any time to lose."

single market;added cost;channel tunnel;high-speed rail link;refusal;total benefits;cross-channel link;fast rail service

WSJ900705-0145

LEISURE & ARTS: Mad Dogs and Frenchmen: `Chunnel' Politics ---- By Isabel Fonseca

Folkestone, England -- "We've been fighting the bastards since 1066" was the taxi driver's response to my faint-hearted suggestion that the Channel tunnel, one end of which we were making our way toward, signaled a new epoch in Anglo-French relations. Had he read my mind, or just the same edition of the Sun, which that morning had offered the Black Death, Paris streets "ankle deep in dog mess," and a comparatively high suicide rate (in France "suicide relieves the daily grind") among its 10 reasons to hate the French? "Froggy bashing" is nothing new here, though it does seem to have gained momentum. But the English objection to the tunnel is not a simple xenophobic reflex. Nationwide opinion polls about this, the biggest civil-engineering project in Europe this century, show convincingly that the English don't want a fixed link; that they like ferries and their island story; that they are worried about the costs to the environment and to themselves; that they are afraid of long, dark tunnels underwater; and of rabies, rats and terrorists crawling through, not to mention other undesirables, say, Europeans in general. The chalk marl under the Channel may be perfectly pliable; the spirit of gloom and resentment about the tunnel (though the disgruntled always are noisier than the positive or the indifferent) may prove more intractable. Nevertheless, after at least 20 false starts since 1802, the project to join England to "Europe" is irreversibly under way. This attempt, which began life on Feb. 12, 1986, at Canterbury with the signing of the Tunnel Treaty by Margaret Thatcher and Francois Mitterrand (whose Rolls-Royce reportedly was met with flying eggs and chants of "Froggy, Froggy, Froggy, Out, Out, Out"), promises to be completed and open for business by June 1993. The British terminal may be seen, or at least imagined, below a ledge of dewy grass near Dover, dotted with poppies and daisies, with church spires in one direction and the white cliffs in another. Slow tractors are piling up walls of earth, cranes and pulleys hoist slabs of cast concrete through a jungle of rusting iron armatures. It looks like child's play, until you spot the men in hard hats: tiny beside their mechanical dinosaurs, they are the toys in the sandbox. Later, I get close to the toy chest, the construction camp in the shadow of Shakespeare Cliff, where nearly 1,000 of them live. "Farthingloe Village -- a new concept in community living" -- consists of 42 featureless blocks, spike-topped fencing, floodlights, security guards and warnings that "All personnel may be searched on leaving the premises"; residents pay #45, or $80, a week. But the men staying here -- most of them migrant laborers from Ireland and northern England -- are rumored to earn as much as $1,750 a week. Inside the tunnel it is cold and wet and dark, but mainly it's big. We few journalists, looking weedy as hell clutching our notebooks, trudge along in borrowed boots on a guided tour past some very large men (inwardly I take back all I thought, from the safety of the dewy green, poppy-sprayed ledge, about "toys"). The site manager gives us the big figures. The total length of each tunnel will be 32 miles, 25 of which will be under the sea. Seven thousand British and 4,000 French workers, on eight- to 12-hour shifts, have completed more than half of the job. Of the three tunnels -- two big ones for trains and another for service -- the smallest is the most advanced: They've bored more than 27 miles. The breakthrough is expected by November. The boring machines are fantastic: guided by satellite, gyroscope, computer and laser, these monsters, equipped with Cuisinart-style blades more than 16 feet wide, can chop and shred chalk at about 15 feet an hour, or 650-1,000 feet a week. We only hear of other machines, such as a giant pump in a 230-foot shaft that sucks the spoil slurry out of the tunnel, but we get some more big figures for the notebooks: Two thousand tons of spoil come out every hour; 500 tons of material go in; money, the press here reports, is being spent at a rate of $4.4 million a day. The 1986 treaty, which contains a clause prohibiting government subsidies for the tunnel, gave a 55-year concession to Eurotunnel, an Anglo-French partnership that commissioned Trans Manche Link, a consortium of five English contractors (Costain, Wimpey, Taylor Woodrow, Balfour Beatty and Tarmac) and five French (Boygues, Dumez, Societe Generale d'Entreprise, Societe Auxiliaire d'Entreprises, Spie Batignolles) to design and build the tunnel. The original forecast for the whole project was $8.5 billion; to the chagrin of the 206 banks involved, it now has reached $13.3 billion and many people estimate tunnel costs of $17.5 billion before we see the light at the end. All this for mad dogs and Frenchmen in 1993? Not quite. Nineteen ninety-two may mean an end to duty-free goods, but the tunnel will be more than a symbol of European unity; it will, transport analysts say, reinforce historically dominant trading links in the London-Frankfurt-Milan so-called "Golden Triangle," bolstering northern Europe as an economic entity at a time when its pre-eminence is being challenged by a strengthened Mediterranean "sunbelt," stretching from Barcelona to Trieste, and by new opportunities to the east. And for the rest of us, it will mean that you can climb aboard and whiz from London to Paris in three hours. There also is, however, a missing link. All leaders like to leave their monuments. For Mr. Mitterrand, with his pyramid and his own triumphal arch, the Chunnel is a new shape for the collection. For Mrs. Thatcher, in her way a choreographer or a sculptor, the monument may be seen in terms of negative space: The tunnel is perhaps her final proof that Britain's Victorian glory can be recaptured without spending a penny of public money. In the same week that the French government revealed its plans to spend 190 billion francs ($34 billion) on expanding its high-speed rail network, the prime minister announced that there will be no government subsidy for a fast train between London and the tunnel, in effect shelving plans for a much discussed new 70-mile link between London and Folkestone. Many observers believe that, by doing nothing to improve the nation's creaking rail system, Britain will lose out on the full benefits of the Chunnel. ("Britain is about to enter the 21st-century with the worst transport infrastructure in northern Europe," John Banham, the director general of the Confederation of British Industry, said recently. "We will become the butt of French jokes and be economically marginalized in Europe.") And travelers from France will have to adjust, perhaps by chewing gum rapidly, when they switch from the "grande vitesse" of the Chemins de Fer Francais to the homely milk route of British Rail, and sit out an extra half-hour until arrival at Waterloo.

full benefits;british industry;boring machines;tunnel treaty;dominant trading links;british rail;high-speed rail network;british terminal

WSJ900720-0113

The Americas: The Shining Path Fights On in Peru ---- By Gustavo Gorriti

As Alberto Fujimori prepares to take over as Peru's next president on July 28, the question of whether the Shining Path will hound his administration as it has the previous two ranks high among his concerns. Among Shining Path watchers ("Senderlogos") there is strong disagreement on fundamentals: Is the Shining Path getting stronger or weaker? Is it making progress or losing ground among the population? And finally, who is actually winning the war? There are no easy answers. There is not much of a dispute on the basic data, however. The Shining Path went to war in 1980, on the same day Peru was holding general elections after 12 years of a military dictatorship. Its first actions were cautious, modest and often ludicrous in a crazy way (like hanging dogs from lampposts, with scribbled insults over them to Chinese Communist martyrs). But the actions intensified and soon became quite lethal. While President Fernando Belaunde's regime did what it could to maintain democratic legality at first, it was quite unprepared to deal with any insurgency -- especially with one that had been meticulously planned and organized several years before the first shot was fired. In October 1981, emergency laws were imposed for the first time on part of Peru; they covered only 2% of the population. Now about 50% of all Peruvians live under emergency law. In 10 years, the war between the Shining Path and the government has cost about 20,000 lives. Damages are estimated at $16 billion, or about 85% of Peru's annual gross national product. If the armed forces have been rightly accused of systematic violations of human rights (Peru ranks as one of the world's worst human-rights offenders), the military faults the civilian authorities for failing to provide much-needed leadership. Mr. Belaunde (the first to deal with the problem), who tried to ignore the insurgency out of existence, is regarded as a well-meaning but inept leader. There are no kind words for Mr. Garcia, on the other hand. In the first weeks of his mandate, he made several right moves -- like emphasizing his role as commander in chief of the armed forces and reorganizing the corruption-ridden police. But things began to unravel soon after. At first, he tried a liberal approach, looking for a dialogue with the fanatical Shining Path, and sending scores of young professionals to the emergency areas to attack what he said were the "root causes" of the insurgency. But dialogue was disdainfully rejected: Dozens of these professionals were assassinated, and the armed forces slowed down their actions, while the rebels made largely unimpeded progress. Then, Mr. Garcia tried a tougher approach, and human-rights violations surged to their current level. And for the first time, death squads -- linked by some analysts to Mr. Garcia's APRA Party -- began to contribute to the killing. Midpoint during his term, Mr. Garcia lost all hope of defeating the Shining Path, and decided just to coexist with it, says Rafael Merino, a respected analyst on security matters. Not even in that was Mr. Garcia successful, as violence climbed steadily during the second half of his term. In 1988, 1,986 people were killed as a result of insurgent or counterinsurgent actions; in 1989, 3,198 were killed; and 1,730 during the first six months of 1990. How well is Mr. Fujimori expected to deal with the insurgency? His campaign pitch advocated an approach closely resembling that of Mr. Garcia's first year. According to Francisco Loayza, Mr. Fujimori's adviser on internal-security matters, military actions against the Shining Path should be subordinated to economic-development initiatives. "{The military} should mainly provide security for development projects," Mr. Loayza says. He stressed that the main thrust of Mr. Fujimori's "pacification" policies would be to address the "structural violence {read: social injustice} that makes subversion possible." Mr. Loayza says that President Garcia's approach failed because of corruption and ineptitude. He also feels that the Shining Path is weakened, and that an important Shining Path faction would be willing to engage in peace talks. This is only wishful thinking, according to Mr. Merino: "If President Fujimori thinks he'll finish the war through those `pacification' policies, it will be like riding into battle with no better dress or weapons than a tuxedo." Actually, Mr. Fujimori might end up implementing internal war policies that would be quite different from those advocated during his campaign. At least, that's what seems is going to happen with the economy, where the vote-getting populist message appears in the process of being replaced by a far more orthodox approach. Free-market economist Hernando de Soto, who has been advising Mr. Fujimori during the past month, thinks that might be the case. "He learns fast," Mr. de Soto told me recently, "and he has all the right instincts." Even if Mr. Fujimori proves to be a quick learner, he will have his work cut out for him. Running against all major trends of contemporary history, the insurgents have followed Shining Path founder Abimael Guzman with the commitment that the faithful reserve for their prophet. This was evident when walking through their safe house in Lima. It looked, said a Peruvian journalist, like the seed for the future "Museum of the Revolution" -- wood carvings; woven baskets; tapestries; paintings; chiseled stone; all meticulously, lovingly crafted with the mythified motifs of the internal war. There were also the hagiographic representations of Mr. Guzman himself, in the various postures that endeavored to combine the heroic with the intellectual. A whole closed, inbred culture, developed in the underground and unnoticed by most Peruvians -- except when it explodes in their faces. --- Mr. Gorriti is a Peruvian author and journalist.

peru;alberto fujimori;president garcia;emergency laws;next president;shining path;armed forces;democratic legality

WSJ900914-0127

Technology & Medicine: Rise in Hurricanes Off U.S. East Coast Is Forecast, Using Study of African Rain ---- By Michael Waldholz Staff Reporter of The Wall Street Journal

Based on the new findings, Mr. Gray predicted earlier this summer that the 1990 tropical storm season would be above average, and so far he seems to be right. In July he said there would be 11 storms severe enough to be named, of which six would be hurricanes. The National Hurricane Center said that as of yesterday there have been nine named storms this year, including four hurricanes, a higher rate than normal. Weather researchers have been seeking to predict hurricane patterns more accurately as an early warning for coastal residents of the U.S. and the Caribbean. A sharp decrease in hurricane activity over the past two decades spurred business and residential development that would be vulnerable to increased hurricane activity. Mr. Gray said the West African Sahel region is the newest of five indicators he uses to predict global hurricane activity. Atlantic hurricanes form from especially strong tropical storms that are triggered by winds and other air disturbances that sweep across Africa. Wind moving across warm ocean air causes powerful updrafts of air bearing sea water that eventually turn into rainclouds. Mr. Gray said he believes that in the absence of moisture, these storms quickly dissipate, but that the storms gather strength with additional moisture. Mr. Gray said his research, published in the current issue of Science, suggests that "intense Caribbean hurricanes Gilbert, Joan and Hugo of 1988 and 1989 may be the forerunners of this change." Comparing year-to-year rainfall levels in the Sahel with the number of high-powered Atlantic hurricanes, Mr. Gray found a striking correlation. From 1947 to 1969, for instance, rainfall in the western Sahel was especially abundant, and during this time there were 13 severe hurricanes that formed in the Atlantic Ocean. From 1970 to 1988, the Sahel suffered through a terrible drought, and hurricane activity was unusually low; only one severe hurricane, Gloria in 1985, formed in the area. Mr. Gray searched back in recent history and found that the Sahel, which includes parts of Senegal, Mauritania, Mali and Gambia, goes through long periods of alternating dry and wet weather. He found that the Sahel was especially wet from 1870 to 1900 and from 1915 to 1935. Hurricane activity was much higher during this time than during intervals when the Sahel was dry. Mr. Gray predicted that, based on historical cycles, the Sahel is entering a wet period. He said the drought conditions ended in 1988 and 1989. He based his 1990 storm forecast on the higher-than-normal rainfall in the Sahel in July. Mr. Gray said his research suggests that climate changes in the Sahel don't result from global warming problems associated with environmental pollution but from natural weather cycles.

west african sahel region;coastal residents;hurricane patterns;atlantic hurricanes;weather researchers;national hurricane center;rainfall levels;global hurricane activity;tropical storm season;mr. gray

WSJ900918-0121

Will the Earth Move On Dec. 3? Midwest Rattled by Prediction --- A Scientist Expects a Quake; Some Map Plans to Flee, And Entrepreneurs Profit ---- By Michael J. McCarthy Staff Reporter of The Wall Street Journal

But even as Memphians whoop it up, the prediction that the Big One may come in December is triggering tremors up and down the Mississippi Valley. Shaken, thousands of people are crowding into earthquake survival classes. In Arnold, Mo., 3,000 people showed up for one course. In Missouri and Arkansas, some schools and businesses have announced plans to close in early December. Entrepreneurs are hawking quake insurance, survival kits and gas-line safety gadgets. Some people are planning to flee. "You can't run from everything," says Tammy McCormick, a nurse in Blytheville, Ark., who will take her two youngsters and spend several days with relatives in North Carolina. "But it seems stupid to stay on a fault line with a prediction like this." Everybody talks about the San Andreas fault in California. But the Midwest actually has had three of the most powerful earthquakes on this continent. In 1811 and 1812, along a 120-mile zig-zag formation called the New Madrid fault, a series of quakes ravaged the Midwest. Researchers estimate those earthquakes ranked stronger than 8 on the Richter Scale, which hadn't been invented yet. They were more than 10 times greater than the 7.1 quake that rocked California's Bay Area last October. Church bells rang as far away as Boston. Chimneys crumbled in Cincinnati. And as tons of soil and rock bed pitched and rolled in a seismic frenzy, new waterfalls spiked up, causing part of the mighty Mississippi River to flow backward for several hours. The New Madrid (pronounced MAD-rid) fault still has 150 small, mostly unfelt, earthquakes a year. In the next 10 years, experts warn, the area has a 33% chance of a quake measuring 7.1. That could produce billions of dollars in damage and thousands of casualties. "We're overdue for one in the 6s and low 7s," says David Stewart, an earthquake expert at Southeast Missouri State University. Over the years, a few pinpoint-on-the map towns have tried to capitalize on the little-known fault. New Madrid, Mo., the fault's namesake, draws tourists to a museum with exhibits on the 19th century devastation. And Paragould, Ark., has held earthquake festivals with events like the "Miss Faultless" beauty contest. But as Monday, Dec. 3, approaches, the whole matter is becoming more serious. That's because the predictor has gained credibility in some important circles for his work on the climate. Iben Browning, a 72-year-old scientist, predicted October's Bay Area quake a week before it happened, say people who heard him speak to the Equipment Manufacturers Institute. And he predicted "geological danger" on Sept. 19, 1985, along a band of latitude that included Mexico City -- where a massive quake struck on that day. Mr. Browning, who has a Ph.D. in physiology, genetics and bacteriology, writes a climate newsletter out of New Mexico. He has clients, such as PaineWebber Inc., who have long paid for his wisdom on how the weather will affect their agricultural investments. Since 1971, Mr. Browning says, he has picked the correct dates of four large earthquakes, two volcanoes -- and one day with both a volcano and an earthquake. He bases his forecasts on tidal forces caused by the positions of the sun and the moon -- an old theory, critics say, that doesn't wash. On Dec. 3, those forces are expected to be at a 27-year high. Mr. Browning says that will exert pressure that could trigger faults already ripe to fail. The New Madrid area has a 50-50 chance of producing at least a 7 quake on Dec. 3, give or take a day or two on either side, Mr. Browning says. At that time, a similar quake has a lesser chance of occurring on California's San Andreas or Hayward faults, according to Mr. Browning, and an 8.2 quake in Tokyo has a greater chance. Skepticism abounds. "No responsible scientist can predict an exact day for an earthquake," says Brian Mitchell, a quake expert at St. Louis University, echoing the majority opinion. But Mr. Browning shouldn't be written off so quickly, says Southeast Missouri State's Mr. Stewart, who recently spent four days with Mr. Browning. "He has a methodology that can determine, plus or minus a window of a day or two, an enhanced probability of a volcano or an earthquake in certain latitudes," says Mr. Stewart. "No one else has been able to replicate it, but that doesn't mean it's wrong." Mr. Browning says it's not easy being on record with predictions that few other scientists will support. "I feel like a lonely little petunia in a cabbage patch," he says. But asked if he enjoys being right, he says, "It's the only damn thing that matters. If one is a business consultant, they don't pay you for being wrong." Plenty of other business people are cashing in on his prediction. Insurance salespeople are peddling earthquake coverage to homeowners and businesses. Salespeople from a Memphis company pop up at survival seminars with a device (for $259 and up) that turns off gas lines when a quake hits. And entrepreneurs are marketing two kinds of earthquake T-shirts in Memphis. One says, "I'm staying," the other, "I'm leaving." All of this has changed life in places like Blytheville, Ark. (pop: 24,314), tucked amid vast flat farmland, right at the corner of the Arkansas, Tennessee and Missouri borders. So many people plan to skip town on Dec. 3 that the Flexible Technologies tubing plant already plans to shut down for two days, at a cost of thousands of dollars. Says Jimmy Connell, plant superintendent, "It's going to be a ghost town around here." Robert Edwards, a Blytheville fireman who teaches seminars in earthquake survival, has become a hot property. For five years, most of his classes were lightly attended. Now his phone-answering machine says he is almost completely booked through October. For one recent class, he was in Osceola, Ark. It is 9 a.m. on a rainy Saturday, and 325 Osceolans, gripping legal pads and spiral notebooks, fill the high school auditorium for an all-day session on earthquake preparedness. With his booming voice, Mr. Edwards lays out a grim scenario: "One hundred and fifty thousand dead in Memphis instantly -- instantly. And all the federal emergency help is going to go there and St. Louis. You have to be prepared to take complete care of yourself for 24 hours to two weeks. You may be five to six months without power." After the seminar, two elderly sisters, both widows, split on what to do. Fearing their home will be looted, Bess Mann, 86 years old, wants to ride it out. But her sister, Hallie Peterson, 83, wants to stay with their nephew in Mississippi. Scared that the big Memphis-Arkansas bridge that spans the Mississippi River will collapse in a quake, she's charting an alternate route two hours out of her way. School districts in Earle and Wilson, Ark., have announced closings around Dec.

prediction methods;earthquake preparedness;quake insurance;earthquake expert;federal emergency help;new madrid fault;national earthquake prediction evaluation cuncil;earthquake survival classes

WSJ910107-0139

Detective Story: Brains Turn to Sponge And Scientists Find Some Bizarre Clues --- Research on Deadly Disease May Bear On Alzheimer's And Theories of Life Itself --- An Outbreak in Pennsylvania ---- By David Stipp Staff Reporter of The Wall Street Journal

Thus began another chapter in one of medicine's most bizarre mysteries, a tale of sick sheep and mad cows, cannibals and Pennsylvanians, ancient life forms and a cat named Max. The plot revolves around a family of brain diseases, probably variations of a single disorder, called spongiform encephalopathy. It is infectious, invariably fatal and as insidious as termites, sometimes eating away brain cells for years without detection before a critical mass is spongified. Then, over a few months, motor control buckles and cognition crumbles. Victims then die quickly, usually within a year. Now, after decades of detective work, medical sleuths appear to be closing in on the molecular culprits behind the disease. Their dogged pursuit won't nail a public-health enemy No. 1 -- the disease is rare -- but it may pay off in a big way because the findings could shed light on more common killers, including Alzheimer's disease. The work also promises basic science breakthroughs. Spongiform research already has raised questions about a cornerstone of biology and spawned a Nobel Prize. The uncanny nature of the disorder sometimes grips scientists with a kind of obsessive fascination, notes NIH researcher D. Carleton Gajdusek. He should know, having chased spongiform leads around the globe for 33 years and won a Nobel Prize in the process. Recently the fascination has taken on a more anxious cast as the disease has struck humans and animals with suspicious regularity in several places, underscoring a longstanding question: Do people get the disease from animals? The question has burned with special intensity since scrapie, the form of the disease in sheep, jumped to British cattle a few years ago after they were fed ground-up parts of infected sheep. About 20,000 British cattle have been destroyed since 1986 in hopes of eradicating the spongiform "mad cow" disease, which makes the animals jittery before they keel over. A few weeks ago, the first confirmed case of mad cow disease outside Britain turned up in Switzerland. U.S. meat producers have reason to be anxious about this because the incidence of scrapie has been rising in American sheep since the mid-1980s, says Richard Marsh, a University of Wisconsin scrapie expert. Scientists agree, however, that the disease in animals probably poses little danger to people. Scrapie has existed for centuries and "the world is bathed" in its infectious agent, says Dr. Gajdusek. Yet sheep have never been strongly implicated in cases of the human form of the disease, Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease, or CJD. At least not until the Poltar journalist and two other people died of CJD at about the same time in a rural, sheep-herding part of eastern Czechoslovakia. When Dr. Mitrova, a researcher at a Bratislava medical institute, heard of the unusual cluster of cases, she decided to investigate. From the first, one clue stood out like a bloodstain: "Almost all of the people are involved in raising and taking care of sheep," she says. The local cuisine includes a soup of sheep meat stewed in sheep milk. The area's equivalent of chicken soup for colds is sheep brain fried in onions. One CJD victim even slept with a pet sheep until age 13. Now such coincidences seem like a serial killer's pattern. Against all odds, CJD has struck again and again in the same region, called Slovakia -- 69 times since 1975, mainly grouped in two areas. The outbreak has become something of an epidemic around the Orava area, where 26 cases have occurred since 1987, a rate hundreds of times higher than normal for CJD. Residents of the affected areas "are very afraid," says Dr. Mitrova. She has found evidence of scrapie in the area's sheep. Now villagers there call CJD "our sheep disease." That's a leap of folklore, though, and the sheep link may well turn out to be false, cautions Dr. Mitrova. Indeed, CJD is a nefarious trickster; the first reported case of the disease, which entered medical texts in the 1920s, really wasn't CJD after all, scientists now believe. And it usually strikes so rarely and randomly -- killing about one in a million people world-wide each year -- that scientists didn't even begin to suspect it was infectious until 1957. That year, the NIH's Dr. Gajdusek, then a young scientist casting about for big questions, planned a trip to Papua New Guinea to visit a friend. He never arrived. En route, he heard that a primitive New Guinea tribe, the Fore, were dying in droves from an unknown brain disorder they called kuru, "the shivering disease," because it started with tremors. Fascinated, he dropped everything, plunged into the backwoods with a local doctor and took charge of investigating the affair, to the great annoyance of Australian authorities then overseeing the area. "Gajdusek . . . has an intelligence quotient up in the 180s and the emotional immaturity of a 15-year-old," one of his mentors warned the Australians in a letter, and "won't let danger, physical difficulty, or other people's feelings interfere in the least with what he wants to do." In short, he was perfect for the job. Soon kuru victims' brains started issuing from the heart of darkness to distant medical centers, compliments of Dr. Gajdusek. He swapped axes and salt for autopsy rights, dissecting one victim with a carving knife by lantern-light in a native hut during a howling storm, according to his letters home. He and the local doctor, Vincent Zigas, tried everything from tranquilizers to hormones on kuru patients. Nothing helped. The cause remained elusive. Two years later, William Hadlow, a U.S. veterinarian, saw a picture of one of the kuru brains in a medical journal and was struck by its spongy appearance. He had seen that look before in scrapie, the sheep disease, and put in a call to the NIH. Another link fell into place when Igor Klatzo, an NIH scientist, noticed kuru brains resembled ones from CJD victims. Based on the clues, Dr. Gajdusek, back at NIH, led studies in the 1960s showing kuru, CJD and scrapie to be essentially the same infectious disease, studies that won the 1976 Nobel Prize for medicine. The discoveries confirmed a long-suspected connection: The kuru outbreak sprang from a Fore mourning ritual, in which relatives ate their deceased kin's lightly cooked, and often kuru-infected, brains. But the infectious agent continued to baffle scientists. It somehow could hide in the brain for decades without causing the usual signs of infection, such as fever. Brain tissue of infected animals could transmit the disease when injected into different animals' brains, yet microscopes revealed no signs of infectious microbes. And why did the agent sporadically appear in people with no known exposure? It seemed like "biological spontaneous combustion," says NIH researcher Paul Brown. In the early 1980s, scientists discovered that CJD, like Alzheimer's disease, often gums up the brain with a kind of junk, or "amyloid," protein. Further studies showed the junk mainly contains a botched form of a naturally occurring brain protein, sometimes called a prion. Many scientists now believe it's the culprit. But their theory entails a biologically weird premise: that the altered protein replicates itself without the aid of genetic material, the basis of all known reproduction.

infection;mad cow disease;infected sheep;british cattle;sheep disease;cjd cases;cjd victims;altered protein

WSJ910208-0130

Letters to the Editor: Forget Gun Control; It's Crime Control

-- More than 90% of police chiefs and sheriffs surveyed agree that criminals are not affected by a ban on any type of firearm, while more than 70% oppose "waiting periods" for the same reason. -- A prisoner survey conducted by James D. Wright et al. found that unarmed felons listed tougher penalties for using a gun as an important reason for not arming themselves. -- 75%-80% of U.S. violent crimes are committed by career criminals, many on some form of conditional or early release (30%-35% of career criminals are rearrested with previous criminal charges still pending). -- Gary Kleck found that using a gun for protection from violent crime -- rape, robbery, assault -- reduces the likelihood that the crime will be completed and that intended victims will be injured. Clearly, the issue at hand is not gun control but, rather, crime control. According to Mr. Gartner, "this year about 3,000 teen-agers . . . will use handguns to kill themselves. Some 9,000 adults will do the same." Suicides are, without doubt, tragic events affecting parents, families and society. Is how these people killed themselves the real issue, or is why more important? The unfortunate truth is that if a person is desperate or depressed enough to commit suicide, he will find a way to do it. Guns or no guns. The most important fact of all must not be overlooked. Criminals don't care about gun-control laws. They never have and they never will. Frank T. Iorio Mamaroneck, N.Y. --- As a life member of the National Rifle Association, I agree with Mr. Gartner -- it is not too much to ask for a nationwide "seven-day `cooling-off' period" (the Brady Bill) to give the authorities time for background checks. As a law-abiding citizen, it would be of comfort to know that other potential handgun buyers would be screened and keep those with a criminal past from owning a handgun. The reason Washington has yet to enact serious gun-control laws is due to the enormous voting and financial pressure of the pro-gun lobby. While Congress is congratulating itself on how well it acted during the vote on the Persian Gulf war, more than 100 body bags were filled here in the U.S. due to handgun violence. The NRA has not acted prudently and is alienating the support and respect of many legislators, police departments and its members. James Forbes Atlanta --- It is refreshing to read the actual motives of those who claim they simply want a waiting period for the purchase of a handgun. Mr. Gartner has now made it abundantly clear that his goal is the elimination of handguns from our society. I find it incongruous that the president of NBC News, a man who should believe in the broadening of constitutional rights, obviously has no regard for the Second Amendment rights to keep and bear arms. I am sure that if there were a movement to narrow and restrict the First Amendment freedoms of the press, he would be at the forefront of the opposition. Mr. Gartner ignores the key issues regarding suicide and crime. The problem is not the instrument used to kill oneself or someone else. The problems are the breakdown of the family (black and white); an education system that fails to educate; poverty; illegal drugs, and emasculated police, justice and penal systems. This has been the message preached by the NRA for years. As evidenced by New York City and Washington, which have the nation's strictest gun-control laws and virtually ban the ownership of handguns by law-abiding citizens, Mr. Gartner's placebo doesn't work because it ignores the root causes of suicide and crime. Richard W. Bonds Cordova, Tenn. --- Mr. Gartner should have read The Federalist No. 46 by James Madison before he wrote his anti-gun diatribe. If he had, he would understand that the constitutional guarantee of uninfringed firearms possession is for protection against tyranny. It has nothing to do with duck hunting or target shooting. Furthermore, Madison makes it clear that state militias, by the fact of their being organized, would give private arms their greatest effectiveness in the resistance to tyranny. Otherwise, in the words of Alexander Hamilton, "the citizens must rush tumultuously to arms, without concert, without system, without resource; except in their courage and despair." Thus the "well-organized militia" phrase in the Second Amendment was not intended to restrict arms to those in the militia -- as the anti-gun lobby would have us believe. When we realize that the individual right to keep and bear arms is our ultimate defense against tyranny, all of the arguments about magazine capacity, armor-piercing bullets, sporting use, etc. suddenly stand before us in their naked falsity. Robert M. Beckett Fountain Valley, Calif.

violent crimes;gun-control laws;prisoner survey;brady bill;gun control;ban;criminals;protection;firearm

WSJ910304-0002

TB Cases Increased 38% In New York City in 1990

The health department said it is providing tuberculosis testing and treatment for the Human Resources Administration's program for the homeless, and will train staff members on tuberculosis prevention and control. The department also has an established residence for homeless tuberculosis patients, and is working with substance-abuse treatment services to extend tuberculosis prevention in its programs. The Board of Health approved a resolution last year requiring all children entering city schools to be tested. The Health Department estimates that one million New Yorkers may be infected by the TB germ. But only a fraction of a percent of those who have active tuberculosis disease can spread the infection to susceptible individuals. The germ is inactive in more than 99% of those infected. Those at high risk for contracting TB are people whose capacity for resisting infection is weakened, either through diseases such as HIV infection, by drug or alcohol abuse, serious illness such as cancer, or by poor nutrition. The greatest concentration of tuberculosis was in the 25-to-44 age group, accounting for 57% of the total. Men outnumber women two to one in the caseload.

tuberculosis prevention;health department;active tuberculosis disease;control;tuberculosis testing

WSJ910304-0005

Crash of United Jetliner Kills 25 in Colorado ---- By Asra Q. Nomani and Laurie McGinley Staff Reporters of The Wall Street Journal

Local news reporters quoted witnesses as saying that the plane appeared to nosedive into the earth. The crash comes at a particularly sensitive time for the travel industry. Although it has always been difficult to measure the effect of crashes on travel, this accident comes just as people were starting to get over fears of terrorism related to the Persian Gulf war. Airlines have been slashing their flight schedules and laying off employees because of the downturn. Some travel agencies have gone to four-day workweeks. Most of the travel sector has resorted to sharp discounting to spark travel. This, in fact, may have been one reason why the load on the United flight was light. The jet, which can hold at least 100 passengers, carried 20 passengers and a crew of two pilots and three flight attendants. Yesterday's marks the third crash of a United jet in the past three years. In July 1988, a United DC-10 crashed in Sioux City, Iowa, after an engine broke apart in flight, killing 112 people. In February 1989, the cargo door on United Boeing 747 burst open near Hawaii, tearing a gaping hole in the fuselage. Nine passengers died. About two hours before yesterday's crash, the National Weather Service in Colorado Springs issued its first high wind warning for the area since January, according to James Hall, a meteorological technician observer in Colorado Springs. Moments after the crash, the average wind speed was 23 miles per hour, gusting to 32 mph, Mr. Hall said. "When it's gusty like that, the conditions are quite choppy. It would be like a turbulent river current. It's essentially like water hitting rocks and splashing and foaming over." A Federal Aviation Administration official said, "There were some reports of gusting winds but whether or not that had any impact or whether there was any kind of mechanical problem, I can't speculate." Another FAA official said that although it is too early to pinpoint the cause, "wind shear would be a major area of investigation." If preliminary reports that there was wind shear in the area are true, then "that would indicate there was some instability in the atmosphere," he added. Wind shear is a sudden, violent shift in wind direction. It can smash an airplane into the ground. However, he said that wind shear is most dangerous when an aircraft is flying at a very low altitude, either shortly before landing or right after takeoff. In Sunday's crash, the jetliner was a few miles from the airport and so should have been at a somewhat higher altitude. The last major U.S. wind shear accident occurred in Dallas in 1985, when a Delta Air Lines jet crashed on approach. Since then, the FAA and the industry have revamped pilot training on wind shear and have devoted considerable resources to dealing with the hazard. No buildings or structures on the ground were damaged by the crash, according to the El Paso County Sheriffs Department. An eight-year-old girl who was playing nearby, was treated for a head injury and released. The jet involved in the crash is almost nine years old. It was delivered in May 1982 to now-defunct Frontier Airlines. United acquired the plane in June 1986. The plane was operated by an engine manufactured by United Technologies Corp.'s Pratt & Whitney division. --- Brett Pulley in Chicago contributed to this article.

first high wind warning;travel industry;colorado springs;last major u.s. wind shear accident;united flight;third crash

WSJ910326-0090

He Paints Still Lifes But John Kelley, 83, Is Still on the Move --- He Lives for Boston Marathon Which He'll Be in April 15, Running His 60th Race ---- By Joseph Pereira Staff Reporter of The Wall Street Journal

Mr. Kelley is in training for the Boston Marathon -- his 60th Boston Marathon. And even at the age of 83, he probably will finish ahead of a large number of the 13,000 runners expected to compete -- officially or unofficially -- on April 15. Bill Rodgers, a four-time Boston Marathon winner who plans to run again this year, marvels at Mr. Kelley: "It's incomprehensible that a man his age is doing what he's doing. I'm struggling at the age of 43. . . . This isn't golf." Even the thought of running a course of 26 miles and 385 yards leaves some of Mr. Kelley's rivals of yesteryear gasping. "Aghast is more like it," says Leslie Pawson, 86, a three-time Boston champion who ran against Mr. Kelley half a century ago. "My doctor says: `No running, whatsoever.' I can't even remember when I ran my last marathon." John Adelbert Kelley is a throwback to a time when marathoners did it for glory and cab fare. A two-time winner in Boston (1935 and 1945) and runner-up seven times, Mr. Kelley is to be the oldest competitor in the race this year -- as he has been for 15 years. Mr. Kelley is such an institution that Hopkinton, Mass., where the race begins, has made him an honorary citizen. ("That means I don't have to pay taxes there," he jokes.) Two state troopers will run alongside the 5-foot-6, 130-pound Mr. Kelley into Boston so he won't be trampled by "groupies," as he calls them, clamoring to shake his hand. Last year, five Japanese runners were waved away by the bodyguards, as they sidled up to the old celebrity during the race. Recalls Suni Tomomitsu, one of the runners: "At first we thought, `Oh, wow, he's like Mafia man.' Then we said, `Oh no, this is nice Johnny Kelley.' In Japan, he is awesome." Though he isn't the oldest person ever to enter the Boston Marathon, Mr. Kelley is the oldest to run it. Peter Foley, who was born in 1859, was a regular until he was well into his 80s. But he walked the course. Starting at dawn (six hours before the official noon start), Mr. Foley would eventually saunter across the finish line in the moonlight. Of course, Mr. Kelley -- not to be confused with the other John Kelley, who won the Boston Marathon in 1957 -- isn't the runner he was in 1935 when he won the race, in 2 hours, 32 minutes, 7 seconds. His best time ever was in 1945: 2 hours, 30 minutes, 40 seconds. Last year he finished in 5 hours, 5 minutes. He hopes to do better in 1991. "That's not a prediction, just a goal," he says. When John Kelley first toed the line in 1928, George Bush wasn't yet in kindergarten, Joe DiMaggio was an unknown and Nike was the winged goddess of victory, not a running shoe. In those days, Mr. Kelley recalls, he ran in black leather high-jumping shoes that he cut open at the toes with a razor blade. "I would have loved to run with the worst pair of sneakers on the market today," he says. Back then, the sport didn't have much of a following. Today, of course, the Boston Marathon is a big deal, covered by TV from start to finish and offering $402,000 altogether in prize money. "The winners get a medal and $55,000," says Mr. Kelley. "I got a medal and beef stew. God bless them," he adds. "They deserve it." The rosy-cheeked, supple Mr. Kelley is a medical wonder. Each year, he visits the Cooper Clinic at the Aerobics Center in Dallas for a battery of endurance tests. "Physiologically, whatever that means, I got all A's," Mr. Kelley reports of his checkup four months ago. "What that means," explains Kenneth Cooper, the physician who wrote "Aerobics" and several sequels and is now at work on a book on elderly athletes, "is that Johnny has the body of a man 23 years younger. He's going to be one of the stars of my book." Mr. Kelley's resting pulse rate -- 60 beats a minute -- is well below the average person's 72 beats. (That's good.) On the stress test the clinic gives, Mr. Kelley holds the endurance record for his age group. A mechanic for Boston Edison Co. before he retired in 1972, Mr. Kelley started running in the evenings after work more than six decades ago. His only purpose was to relax and have some fun. "All day long, I did what my boss told me to do," he recalls. "But when I ran at night, I felt free. I ran till I was exhausted." In 1928, when he was 21, he entered his first Boston Marathon but didn't finish. He dropped out three-quarters of the way through the race. Then, in 1933, he finished 37th in a field of about 200 runners. In all the years since, he has missed the race just once, in 1967. (He has competed, all told, in 112 marathons, including the 1936 and 1948 Olympics. Mr. Kelley well knows the jagged course from Hopkinton to downtown Boston: The first challenge comes five miles into the race, where a set of little hills can get a psyched runner to waste energy charging up the slopes. A mile and a half later, there's new reason to beware: The smells of Cavanaugh's Bakery can set off hunger pangs. An Exxon station in Wellesley marks the halfway point. A steep descent into Newton Lower Falls can jar a tired runner's bones. Then, at the end of a long column of oak and maple trees, is Heartbreak Hill, his nemesis. It cost him at least two victories, he says. And finally there's the Haunted Mile, a stretch where many runners have collapsed. Boston's skyline, 2 1/2 miles in the distance, can seem so far away. Though still going strong, Mr. Kelley acknowledges the marathon gets tougher each year. To compensate, he trains harder. He used to start preparing in earnest at the end of January. "In recent years, I've been in training 12 months a year," he says, though the serious stuff -- a daily one-hour run, sprints on the track and long, 2 1/2-hour runs every other week -- begins in December. (He doesn't count the miles he puts in, as many long-distance runners obsessively do, but he says he wouldn't object to an estimate of about 50 miles a week.) Mr. Kelley always trains at 5 a.m., and alone: "It's a quiet time, no traffic; the air is fresh and sweet." His routes vary. In January, he prefers the frozen sands of the beach. With the approach of spring, he takes to the alder and scrub-pine hills and bluffs where the sun can be seen rising over Cape Cod Bay. After his morning run, he spends a couple of hours painting (still lifes and Cape Cod scenes), a hobby he took up about 25 years ago. Unlike many runners, Mr. Kelley doesn't bother with stretching exercises before he runs in the morning. "This is my warm up: I empty the dishwasher, I set up the coffeepot, but I don't plug it in. I set up the breakfast table. Then I check the outside temperature to see what clothes to wear." He and his wife, Laura, live in a two-bedroom ranch-style house here in East Dennis, with more than 350 trophies, medals and sweat-stained marathon numbers scattered about. He isn't particular about brands of shoes ("I wear them all") or what he eats ("I never eat broccoli, but I love steak and ice cream.") Mr. Kelley aims to run till he is at least 100 years old. "He's a strange man," says Laura Kelley, in awe of her husband's vigor. The 82-year-old Mrs. Kelley adds, "I just try to stay in his shadow, but I have a hard time even doing that." In a rare moment of reflection, Mr. Kelley explains what makes him tick: "I paint because I like it. I run because I like it. If for some reason I don't finish the marathon, I don't owe an apology to anyone. But I'll tell you, the Boston Marathon -- with all those people waving -- is better than my birthday."

john kelley;training;two-time winner;runners;oldest competitor;60th boston marathon;mr. kelley

WSJ910405-0154

Police Chiefs Must Denounce Gates ---- By Joseph D. McNamara

A police chief plays an essential role in setting the climate in which his department operates. Through the years Mr. Gates has made public statements clearly at odds with the new concept of community policing, in which officers work with citizens to improve neighborhoods and prevent crime. A few years ago Chief Gates referred to gang members as "dirty little cowards," and warned them that "there is resounding applause to every fall of the hammer." The exchange sounded more like one gang challenging another than a police chief seeking to reduce conflict in the community. Indeed the Rambo-like challenge did not lower violence, and may have increased it. Hundreds of gang homicides occur every year in Los Angeles despite sweeps by the city's police. Mr. Gates would have been better advised to seek community programs for jobs, education, elimination of prejudice and improvement of neighborhoods. But this kind of reasoning is foreign to a man who publicly claimed that his SWAT team could free the Iranian hostages. Similarly, Mr. Gates vehemently opposed the Police Corps Program backed by other police chiefs. The Police Corps would send idealistic young people, including minorities, to serve a three -- or four -- year tour of duty after college graduation in return for federal funding of their educations. Mr. Gates opposed the Police Corps because its members would not be professionals. Yet the presence of such "non-professionals" would discourage the racism and brutality exposed by the Rodney King beating. Such attitudes survive only in a closed police culture. The presence of even one police corps officer witness would have deterred the criminal cops. Many chiefs openly disagreed with Mr. Gates when he opposed the Police Corps Bill in Congress. We should be as openly critical of his other statements. For example, Mr. Gates once said that blacks were more susceptible than "normal people" to chokeholds. More recently, he described the killer of a policewoman as an "El Salvadoran, who shouldn't have been here." The nationality of the murderer was irrelevant. Mr. Gates's statement did nothing to lessen the tragedy of the fallen officer, but like his statement about blacks, it gave comfort to bigots within and outside the department. And it hardly reduced conflict in a city where the majority of the population is made up of minorities who need and deserve police protection, whether or not they are citizens. Two years ago, on a national television documentary, Mr. Gates defended a special unit that had shot many criminals during stakeouts. The unit had advance knowledge that crimes were about to occur, but often stayed outside and let robberies occur, even though innocent retailers and customers were put at risk. The chief said that arresting the criminals before the robberies wasn't a good idea because the courts were so lenient. The unit has been allowed to continue to operate despite its high shooting rate -- or, worse still, because of the shootings. Last year Los Angeles paid $3 million to 52 residents of an apartment complex ransacked by police. Mr. Gates reluctantly admitted that the officers who did the ransacking were wrong, but said he could understand their frustration in trying to fight drugs. Even more recently, Mr. Gates told the Senate that "casual drug users should be taken out and shot." He assured the senators that he was not being facetious. And his initial reaction on television to the Rodney King brutality tapes was defensive. Mayor Tom Bradley told the media that such conduct wouldn't be tolerated, and that the wrongdoers would be sought out for punishment. Mr. Gates said that while he was shocked, he wasn't drawing conclusions and would look into the "background," of the incident. Presumably, the chief has now received wiser council. He has called for prosecution of three of the officers, and has produced a videotape for his troops condemning the beating. But condemnation of misconduct and excessive force should have been a constant message from the command staff before the brutality, and not an afterthought. Yet, it's hard to imagine commanders preaching restraint in light of the chief's constant belligerent pronouncements. Even Mr. Gates's apology to Mr. King sent the wrong message. He said that he hoped the incident might help Mr. King to straighten out his life. It is hard to imagine someone unlawfully beaten by uniformed officers as others looked on being inspired to respect law and order. Or was the chief suggesting that the beating was a warning against further run-ins with the police? Clearly, Daryl Gates's words and actions create doubt about his claim that the Rodney King incident was an aberration. Public opinion polls in Los Angeles show the majority of people believe police brutality is common, and they disapprove of the way Mr. Gates has done his job. When he characterizes such opposition as cop-haters, he embitters his department and to some extent all police. Mr. Gates's military style of policing is at odds with that in the rest of the country, and it's about time police leaders publicly repudiated it. It is hard to see how the Los Angeles Police Department can regain credibility unless Daryl Gates's leave becomes permanent. But the videotape of the LAPD brutality affects the credibility of all police officers. It has cast a cloud over policing that won't be lifted until police chiefs drop their own code of silence and speak out against one of their own's peculiar philosophy of policing. --- Mr. McNamara is the police chief in San Jose. He comes from a family of policemen and has been one for 35 years.

lapd brutality;excessive force;rodney king incident;los angeles;police brutality

WSJ910529-0003

Marketing & Media: Elizabeth Taylor, Enquirer Settle Actress's Lawsuit

The lawsuit, which has been pending for nine months, arose out of two articles published by the Enquirer in June 1990 reporting on Miss Taylor's condition and activities at St. John's Hospital, Santa Monica, Calif., where she was treated last spring for pneumonia. The Enquirer said that after gaining access to all of Miss Taylor's medical records, it is satisfied that the articles reporting on the actress's medical condition and the report that she was drinking were in error. The paper said it published the articles in good faith reliance on information provided to it, but the information was inaccurate. Iain Calder, Enquirer editor, said in a statement, "we regret the inaccuracies in the articles but are pleased that this dispute has come to an amicable end." Miss Taylor said she feels "completely vindicated," and that after the newspaper's management determined the articles were in error, the Enquirer "acted promptly and in good faith." Miss Taylor initially sought damages of $20 million in Los Angeles Superior Court, according to Neil Papiano, her attorney. Although Mr. Papiano wouldn't specify the size of the settlement, he said "we were persuaded that it was certainly large enough that we shouldn't go to trial." As previously reported, G.P. Group Inc., the Lantana, Fla., publisher of the Enquirer and Star tabloids, plans to raise $350 million by offering 43% of the firm in an initial public offering.

st. john's hospital;lawsuit;enquirer;pneumonia;medical condition;actress;miss taylor

WSJ910607-0063

Enterprise: Third-World Debt That Is Almost Always Paid in Full --- With a `Microloan,' Cameroonian Women Parlay a Rabbit Into Two Shops ---- By Brent Bowers Staff Reporter of The Wall Street Journal

Tiny Third World businesses commonly repay these "microloans" faithfully because they crave the security of a favorable credit rating. This rescues them from the clutches of loan sharks -- microloans typically charge the prevailing local commercial loan rate -- and lets them borrow again in hard times. The money helps them start or expand their businesses -- selling vegetables, sewing, repairing shoes, making furniture and the like -- and boosts their local economies. Their repayment performance shines when compared with that of many sovereign nations. It also looks good compared with a default rate of 17% by U.S. recipients of federally guaranteed student loans. Though microlending has been around for years, it is now booming. With the decline of communism, U.S. development groups believe they are exporting free-market economics to tiny businesses that can fuel growth in the developing world. "Micro-enterprise lending is the hottest thing in development since the Green Revolution. Everybody does it," says Accion International spokeswoman Gabriela Romanow. The Green Revolution sent farm output surging in many poor nations. Ms. Romanow cites the case of Aaron Aguilar, an unemployed factory worker in Monterrey, Mexico, who borrowed $100 to buy clay and glazes for making figurines with his wife in their back yard. In six years, the couple took out and repaid five loans and built their business to 18 full-time employees. Sometimes borrowers have to struggle against setbacks that might seem comical in the prosperous West. One group of women in Cameroon received $100 from New York agency Trickle Up to start a rabbit-breeding business, but the rabbit ate her offspring, recalls Mildred Leet, co-founder of the U.S. agency. Undaunted, the women switched to chickens and made enough money selling eggs to branch out into tomatoes and tailoring, ultimately opening two shops, Ms. Leet says. Some Third World commercial banks are taking note of poor entrepreneurs' repayment rates. Accion persuaded family-owned Multi Credit Bank of Panama City, Panama, to start making microloans two months ago. Isaac Btesh, a director and son of the founder, says the bank has lent $80,000 to 100 people so far on 60-day, rotating lines of credit -- with a 100% repayment rate. "When we got in touch with Accion, we were incredulous," Mr. Btesh says. "We couldn't believe their figures. But everything they said is true." Poverty lending has such promise that Multi Credit plans to make it the bank's number one activity, ahead of trade financing, consumer loans and merchant loans, the official adds. Accion, a Cambridge, Mass.-based nonprofit international development group and a leader in the U.S. microloan movement, says it plans to increase its microlending this year to $66.5 million from $37.8 million in 1990 and $9.8 million five years ago. It says it plans to add 64,000 new clients, up from 40,000 last year and 9,000 five years ago. Its average loan is $303. Accion's Ms. Romanow says the group, which serves Latin America, plans to expand the lending to a total of between $500 million and $1 billion over the next five years. The payback rate is 98%. CARE, New York, perhaps the world's largest private international-development group, says small economic-activity development -- primarily microlending -- is its fastest-growing portfolio. "There's energy and creativity out there, people bootstrapping who aren't waiting for the next handout," says Larry Frankel of CARE. Trickle Up, which makes thousands of $100 loans annually, says its budget rose to $1 million this year from $800,000 in 1989 after doubling almost every year throughout the 1980s. Trickle Up makes $100 loans in two installments of $50 each to small groups of individuals. "We feel private enterprise is the way to help the poor," says Mrs. Leet, who founded Trickle Up with her husband in 1979. The group started a program in China in 1989 and moved into Laos, Vietnam and Namibia last year. Betsy Campbell, economic-development manager of Westport, Conn.-based Save the Children, says her group underwent a shift in the 1980s "from being primarily a charitable organization" to being one oriented towards helping profit-making activities. She says microlending to individuals in 20 nations is rising sharply, with more than $3 million in circulation at the moment. Repayment rates in most nations exceed 90%, she says. "These people value access to credit so highly that default isn't really a problem," she says. Some Third World banks, notably in Asia, have been making microloans for years. Grameen Rural Bank of Bangladesh is considered a pioneer. However, most such banks were set up with state support specifically to target the poor. Not every charity group in the U.S. has joined the microloan bandwagon. The Christian Children's Fund of Richmond, Va., sticks to relief efforts and to person-to-person sponsorships, in which a U.S. donor makes regular payments to an impoverished Third World child, for example, while Africare House in Washington, D.C., focuses on helping cooperatives improve food production and health care. Nor is the booming field of microlending without its detractors -- or its controversies. David Munro, an official with TechnoServe of Norwalk, Conn., says he prefers to work "on a larger scale, and I also don't see {microlending} as passing on much in the way of skills." And officials at the U.S. Agency for International Development, which finances a big chunk of many private groups' overseas operations, say they support the principle of expanding poverty lending but oppose congressional efforts to mandate minimum levels. AID has more than doubled its micro-enterprise budget, which includes microlending, training and other activities, to an estimated $114 million this year from $58 million in 1988.

repayment performance;micro-enterprise lending;tiny third world businesses;favorable credit rating;microloans;poverty lending

WSJ910628-0109

International: Yugoslav Army Cracks Down on Rebels --- Militias Are Outmatched By Belgrade's Forces; Clash at Austria Border ---- By Roger Thurow Staff Reporter of The Wall Street Journal

JEZERSKO, Yugoslavia -- On Wednesday, the Slovene soldiers manning this border post raised a new flag to mark Slovenia's independence from Yugoslavia. Yesterday, under artillery fire from the federal army, they waved a white flag and surrendered as Yugoslavia lurched closer to civil war. Less than two days after Slovenia and Croatia, two of Yugoslavia's six republics, unilaterally seceded from the nation, the federal government in Belgrade mobilized troops to regain control. Accompanied by tanks, jet fighters, helicopters, the regular troops, including paratroopers, battled Slovene militiamen across the breakaway republic. They surrounded the airport near Ljubljana, Slovenia's capital, and retook Slovenia's main border crossings with Austria, Italy and Hungary, effectively cutting off international traffic. Local militiamen shot down a federal army helicopter as it flew over the capital, killing the pilot and co-pilot, the Associated Press reported. There were no official reports of casualties. But Slovene Defense Minister Janez Jansa said in a television interview that fighting was going on in at least 20 places in Slovenia, and he estimated there were more than 100 dead and wounded on both sides. He claimed six government helicopters had been downed. "To put it briefly, Slovenia is at war," he said. Reuters news service reported from Ljubljana that thousands of local defense forces were patrolling with automatic weapons. Outside the Slovene capital, government armored vehicles smashed through barricades and road blocks, leaving a trail of twisted metal, flattened cars and shattered glass. In Croatia, the army moved into areas where fighting erupted between Croats and minority Serbs, Yugoslavia's two largest nationalities and historic rivals. Four people had been killed and 14 hurt Wednesday. The first shooting between the federal army and the militias occurred here, in the mountains that mark the border with Austria. Throughout the morning, federal soldiers, some bearing bazookas, fanned out in the woods surrounding the Slovenia customs house. Meanwhile, tanks and artillery wound up the narrow mountain pass. In midafternoon, the customs house was rattled with a burst of rifle fire and a few minutes later it was rocked by three projectiles from anti-tank guns. The blasts left holes in the roof and walls and shattered windows in the house. The Slovenes, about three dozen strong, waved a white sheet from one of the windows, laid down their weapons and were marched down the road. None of them seemed to be injured. The scene was like something out of the U.S. Civil War, where civilians gathered for picnics to watch the early battles. Here, the drama was watched by several Yugoslavs trying to return to their country from Austria; the cooks, waitresses and a few guests at restaurants on both sides of the border; several tourists who were caught on the Yugoslav side; and a dozen Austrian customs officers and policemen. Those on the Austrian side gathered near the restaurant's beer garden and watched through binoculars as the army soldiers moved through the forest, and then they scrambled for cover when shots were fired. No spectators were harmed. Slovenes watching the action were horrified, as the consequences of their independence grab became clear. "Yesterday we had a big party, and today we're fighting," moaned Bogataj Vejko, a truck driver from near Ljubljana, who had safely crossed the border early in the morning and was now trying to get back home. "We were hoping it wouldn't come to this." After the shooting stopped, he talked to a group of the federal soldiers, and discovered that some were conscripts from Slovenia. "This is what we have come to," he said. "Slovenes shooting at Slovenes." After the army established control, Milan Jelen, a Slovene businessman, reached into the backseat of his car and retrieved his son's toy slingshot. "Now I'll go at them myself," he joked. Then he turned serious, scoffing, "Some independence." Emil Herlec, a leader of the local Slovene mountain rescue team, scrambled up the mountain, through the woods, when he heard the shooting. "The first shots that have been fired in Slovenia since after World War II," he said. "If we want our freedom, we will now have to defend it." In Ljubljana, Milan Kucan, Slovenia's president, vowed in a television address that the republic's militia would respond with "all methods" to any aggression against his "independent state." He called on Slovenes in the federal army to desert and join the republic's militia. In Croatia, officials also vowed to defend their sovereignty. But the poorly trained and equipped Slovene and Croatian militias, formed in the past several months, are no match for the 180,000-strong federal army. The local militias also have nothing to counter the central government's several thousand tanks and other armored vehicles, not to mention the government's air forces. Politically, the two republics' declarations of independence have been ignored by the rest of the world, which supports a united Yugoslavia. So far, no foreign countries have recognized Slovenian and Croatian independence. On the contrary, the European Community and the U.S. have lobbied heavily for the maintainance of the Yugoslav state, and have threatened to withhold millions of dollars in aid if the country breaks up. But U.S. Secretary of State James Baker appealed to Belgrade to find a way for Croatia and Slovenia to express their "national aspirations" through "negotiations and dialogue" rather than bloodshed. Mr. Baker and White House spokesman Marlin Fitzwater had suggested to reporters Wednesday that the breakaway republics be granted greater autonomy and sovereignty within a united Yugoslavia. The federal army, dominated by Serbs, has long warned that it won't stand by while the country disintegrates. And on Tuesday night, after the two republics declared their independence, the federal parliament called on the army to intervene. In a letter to Slovenia's premier, Gen. Konrad Kolsek of the federal military district that controls Slovenia said he had orders to seize all border crossings and would "crush" any resistence. The independence declarations came after months of unsuccessful negotiations among the leaders of the six republics over the post-Cold War shape of Yugoslavia. The Communist leadership of Serbia, Yugoslavia's largest republic, insists on strong central control from Belgrade, the capital of both Serbia and Yugoslavia. The nationalist governments of Slovenia and Croatia have been demanding a looser confederation of sovereign republics. Serbian attempts to deny Croatia and Slovenia their independence are motivated by two fears. They worry that the 600,000 Serbs living in Croatia (about 11% of that republic's population) will be discriminated against by the Croatian government. And they fear losing the economic support of Slovenia and Croatia, the two wealthiest republics. On the other hand, Slovenia and Croatia say they could no longer tolerate the erosion of their finances by the Serbian-dominated bureaucracy. Together, Slovenia, with two million people, and Croatia, with five million, supply nearly two-thirds of Yugoslavia's foreign exchange and about half of the country's gross national product. They are also Yugoslavia's gateway to Western Europe.

slovene soldiers;federal soldiers;breakaway republics;civil war;independence declarations;yugoslavia;strong central control;independence grab;slovene militiamen;federal government;croatian independence

WSJ910702-0078

Clarence Thomas on Law, Rights and Morality ---- By Dinesh D'Souza

What kind of justice would Clarence Thomas, President Bush's nominee to fill the Supreme Court seat vacated by Thurgood Marshall, be? In a series of interviews with me a few weeks prior to his nomination, Mr. Thomas echoed themes that run through his articles and speeches over the past decade. -- "I don't believe in quotas. America was founded on a philosophy of individual rights, not group rights. The civil rights movement was at its greatest when it proclaimed the highest principles on which this country was founded -- principles such as the Declaration of Independence which were betrayed in the case of blacks and other minorities." -- "I believe that society is now in a position to vigorously enforce equal rights for all Americans. . . . But I believe in compensation for actual victims, not for people whose only claim to victimization is that they are members of a historically oppressed group." -- "America should not fall into the trap of blaming all the problems faced by blacks or other minorities on others. We are not beggars or objects of charity. We don't get smarter just because we sit next to white people in class, and we don't progress just because society is ready with handouts. As a people, we need to find solutions to problems through independence, perseverance and integrity. As a society, we should develop better policies to deal with the underclass than the failed solutions of the past." While the views of President Bush's first Supreme Court nominee, David Souter, were virtually unknown before his confirmation, the 43-year-old Mr. Thomas has boldly articulated his vision of constitutional law, both as a judge -- he now sits on the Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, the nation's second-highest bench -- and, before that, as chairman of the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission for eight years. "Basically the job of a judge is to figure out what the law says, not what he wants it to say," Mr. Thomas told me. "There is a difference between the role of a judge and that of a policy maker. {Judge Robert} Bork was right about that, no question. Judging requires a certain impartiality." At the same time, "impartiality is not the same thing as indifference. This isn't law school speculation. When I hear a case, I know damn well that something is going to happen as a result of what I decide. People's lives are affected. Sometimes a man's life depends on the outcome. And these are people looking to me, to the judge, to figure out what's just, to correctly apply the law. That's not a responsibility I take lightly. No way." Many of Mr. Thomas's critics have taken his unconcealed admiration for Ronald Reagan, his former boss, and Robert Bork, his predecessor on the D.C. Circuit, as evidence that Mr. Thomas shares their philosophy of jurisprudence. But in fact, a careful reading of his articles and speeches reveals a different sort of judicial conservatism. Writing in the Howard Law Journal in 1987, Mr. Thomas argued for what he called a "natural law" or "higher law" mode of judging, in which the judge examines not only the text of the Constitution or statute but also the moral principles underlying the American form of government. Mr. Thomas maintains, with support from Abraham Lincoln and abolitionist Frederick Douglass, that the Constitution must be read in the context of the principle of equality inherent in the Declaration of Independence. In a powerful speech Mr. Thomas gave on Martin Luther King Day three years ago, he defended certain forms of civil disobedience. King often quoted Thomas Aquinas's statement, "An unjust law is a human law that is not rooted in eternal law and natural law." Part of King's legacy, for Mr. Thomas, is his reflection on the close connection between law and morality. President Bush's nominee understands the hostility he is likely to face in Congress. "When you're up before those confirmation hearings, it's like going through Dante's Inferno. . . . I've seen a glimpse of that process. When you get up there, you just hope that you don't get destroyed so that even if you don't make it, you can go on with your life." Mr. Thomas is likely to be a very different kind of judge from the man he is replacing. When reminded of Thurgood Marshall's comment that he could not wholeheartedly celebrate the bicentennial of the American founding because the Constitution permitted slavery, Mr. Thomas shook his head. "I have felt the pain of racism as much as anyone else," Mr. Thomas says passionately. "Yet I am wild about the Constitution and about the Declaration. Abraham Lincoln once said that the American founders declared the right of equality whose enforcement would follow as soon as circumstances permitted. The more I learn about the ideals of those men, the more enthusiastic I get. . . . I believe in the American proposition, the American dream, because I've seen it in my own life." Mr. Thomas's life is a remarkable story. Born in a small frame house on the outskirts of Savannah, Ga., in 1948, Mr. Thomas endured all the hardships of the segregated South. His father left before he could walk, and his mother worked as a housemaid and picked crabs from the marsh to eat and sell. The family shared a single outhouse with several neighbors. In the summer of 1955, Clarence Thomas and his brother went to live with their maternal grandparents, who owned an ice delivery and fuel oil business. It is here, under the stern tutelage of his grandfather, Myers Anderson, that Mr. Thomas locates the beginning of his true education. "My grandfather has been the greatest single influence on my life," he claims. In 1987 he told the Atlantic, "When the civil rights people indict me, the man they are indicting is that man. Let them call him from the grave and indict him." As Mr. Thomas remembers, his grandfather believed that "Man ain't got no business on relief as long as he can work. Damn welfare, that relief]" At home the Thomas boys worked six hours a day in addition to school: raising the chickens, pigs and cows; cleaning the house and the yard; painting, roofing, plumbing and fixing; maintaining the oil trucks and making deliveries. These lessons of hard work, personal dignity and self-sufficiency were reinforced through years of Catholic school and college. He finished his undergraduate studies at Holy Cross College in Worcester, Mass. "That's where I started to get political and radical," Mr. Thomas recalls. "I read Malcolm X. I became interested in the Black Panthers." In 1971 he founded the Black Student Union at Holy Cross. He went on to Yale Law School, where he worked summers at New Haven Legal Assistance, continuing what he calls "my political consciousness raising." Nevertheless, "I never gave up my grandfather's ideals, and when my left-wing opinions began to clash with those ideals, I began to move away from the left." Eventually he took a job with Missouri Attorney General (now Senator) John Danforth because "he promised to treat me like anyone else. He promised to ignore the hell out of me."

minorities;mr. Thomas;supreme court nominee;clarence thomas;columbia circuit;judge;judicial conservatism

WSJ910709-0115

Clarence Thomas: To Be Young, Gifted and Black ---- By Peggy Noonan

But the lesson that should not be lost is the transcendent one: Clarence Thomas made it in America because he was loved. His mother loved him. And when she could no longer care for him she gave him to her parents to bring up, and they loved him too. And they cared enough to scrape together the money every year to put him in a Catholic school where they hoped the nuns would teach and guide him and they did. He got love and love gave him pride and pride gave him confidence that he had a place at the table. This is something we in the age of the-family-that-is-not-a-family forget: the raw power of love and how it is the one essential element in the creation of functioning and successful people, and how its absence twists the psyche and the heart. (The children of the mother on crack are not consigned to lives of uselessness and pain because AFDC payments are low; they are so consigned because crack has broken the maternal bond that brings with it caring and succor.) Lives like Judge Thomas's remind us of this simple truth. --- It was once thought that to choose a conservative black for a high appointment put liberals in an uncomfortable position, but we will learn in the Thomas hearings that this is no longer so. Not that the hearings will be color blind, it's just that senators are going to use Mr. Thomas's race to prove things about themselves with it. Senators of the left will use him to prove they are not minority-whipped. They will demonstrate through measured abuse that they are able to treat a black man as their equal. Their ferocity, they will think, is proof of their sophistication, a compliment: "Our party doesn't patronize minorities." This will be cloud cover for their real intention, which is to serve the interests of the interest groups -- the pro-abortion lobby, the civil rights lobby, labor -- that control their careers. Some on the right will use Mr. Thomas's race to demonstrate again that ours is the party of true racial progress, that not a trace of racism clogs the conservative heart. Expect an especially spirited defense from Jesse Helms. The left will be tough not only because Mr. Thomas represents ideological insult. Those on the left are unmoved by Mr. Thomas's climb from nothing to something because he didn't do it the right way -- through them and with their programs. His triumph refutes their assumptions; his life declares that a good man of whatever color can rise in this country without the active assistance of the state. This is a dangerous thing to assert in a highly politicized age. And to make it worse, Judge Thomas didn't "make it on his own." He has been helped all his life by affirmative action, but the kind liberals do not see and cannot accept: the uncoerced, unforced affirmative action that Americans tend to take when someone at a disadvantage -- race, physical disability -- needs help. When Mr. Thomas made his moving statement at Kennebunkport last week he thanked the people who had helped him along the way, including the nuns who taught him. (What a touching and old-fashioned thing to do. If Sandra Day O'Connor had thanked the nuns it would have been a skit on "Saturday Night Live" and an issue in her confirmation.) The nuns' affirmative action for Clarence Thomas was the only effective, meaningful kind: the kind we perform for individuals, not because it is state-mandated but because it is right, not because we love a race but because we care for people and love our country. One strategy to be expected from Mr. Thomas's opponents: deference and respect. Expect phrases of rolling sympathy as senators of the left bring up for him his humble origins and congratulate him on his grit and determination. Already I can see Joe Biden's telegenic tick of a smile, the one he uses to show how civil he is in spite of his growing moral exasperation. He will celebrate Mr. Thomas's gifts and use them against him. "But what, Judge Thomas, about those who were not born with your advantages, and by that I mean not wealth and comfort but brilliance and determination and a family. What about those poor blacks not greatly gifted or guided -- what about them?" --- For Judge Thomas's proponents, two great hopes: One is that the administration will hit America where it lives and go over the heads of the talking suits and straight to the people, presenting as witnesses on television the affirmative action crew that lifted a young boy with nothing to great heights -- the mother who was a maid, the grandmother who saved up the tuition and the nuns who helped open his eyes. The force of their presence will remind us that real change in a democracy comes from the people up, not from the government down. The second hope: that the administration will demonstrate moral confidence in its choice and not go into a defensive crouch. In 1980, '84 and '88, the American people voted overwhelmingly for presidents who promised to appoint conservative jurists. The left calls the Thomas appointment a hijacking, a right-wing coup for the court, but this is the opposite of the truth. Mr. Thomas's appointment is not a traducing of the people's will but a fulfillment of their directive. --- Miss Noonan is a writer in New York.

thomas hearings;clarence thomas;conservative jurists;conservative black;triumph;affirmative action;judge thomas

WSJ910710-0123

International: Slovenia Awakens to Price of Its Dream --- Secession Takes Unexpected Toll on Identity, Economy ---- By Roger Thurow Staff Reporter of The Wall Street Journal

Yesterday, with a tenuous peace settling over Slovenia, the exchange panicked. Slovenia bonds slumped. No one touched the stocks. The foreign exchange rights went begging. "There is a certain logic to this," says Drasko Veselinovic, the exchange's chief executive. "Slovenes are now beginning to see the costs of independence more clearly than when we were at war." The two million people of this picturesque Alpine republic are waking up from their two-week nightmare sobered by the implications of their intoxicating declaration of secession from Yugoslavia on June 25. Their bravado is undiminished, reflected in the almost unanimous feeling that there can be no going back now that blood has been spilled in defense of independence. But there is also a growing unease about going forward, because no one knows where Slovenia is headed. For the moment, the Slovenes are feeling lonely, unrecognized by the nations of the world. Their considerable trade with the rest of Yugoslavia, which helped make them the country's richest people, is vanishing. Their identity is being turned upside down; once known as Yugoslavia's "developed north," Slovenia will now be lumped together with Western Europe's "underdeveloped south." Nationalism overshadows pragmatism, a quality that once distinguished Slovenia from the rest of the often bewildering Balkans. "We've decided to be our own country," says Mr. Veselinovic, "but we really don't know how we will execute it." The Balkanization of this Balkan country has also become Europe's worst nightmare. Almost every country on the continent has its own disenchanted minorities, from the Soviet Baltics to French Corsica, that could be encouraged by the independence declarations of Slovenia and the neighboring republic of Croatia. Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev has held up recent events here -- the Yugoslav army assault on Slovenia and the bitter ethnic clashes between Croats and Serbs -- as a warning to his land of what can happen when nationalism fractures a country. While the European Community is counting on the peace plan it brokered to defuse tensions (it calls for a three-month period of negotiations in Yugoslavia), most governments concede that the country's breakup is inevitable. But the West Europeans also are wary of moving toward recognition of the various pieces. "We have every sympathy for small peoples who aspire to affirm their national identity by democratic methods," the Swiss foreign minister reportedly told a European conference on national minorities. "But that doesn't mean we can accept the unilateral alteration of frontiers." This shunning by Western Europe, and the U.S., is particularly disillusioning for a people who enjoy their BMWs, Peugeots and Fiats, their shopping trips to Munich and Venice and their vacation chalets in the Alps. The Slovenes, from their days in the Austro-Hungarian empire, have always considered themselves to be Westerners. Nestled between the Alps and the Adriatic, Slovenia became the most prosperous patch of communist Europe. The per capita annual income of nearly $7,000 is 10 times that of the southern regions of Yugoslavia. But as Slovenes measure themselves with Western Europe, it is they who are the poorer cousins. Joze Mencinger, an economist and former finance minister of Slovenia, illustrates the republic's economic resilience by noting that while Yugoslavia's industrial output fell 18% so far this year, Slovenia's declined only 10%. When reminded by a visitor that Austria, in contrast, is posting robust growth, he grows somber. "Okay, we must realize that we will be the less-developed part of Europe," he says. "Unfortunately, in times of transition like this, people's expectations are often wrong. Everybody expected that we could become Austria and Switzerland overnight." Over a decade might even be too soon. Slovenia's exports of assembled cars, pharmaceuticals, refrigerators and furniture account for a third of the total value of the goods and services it produces. But Slovene economists reckon that exports would have to double to match the performance of other small European countries. Slovenia is counting on expanding its already extensive ties with Austria (a joint venture between Austrian and Slovene companies recently completed a high-tech Alpine tunnel opening another border crossing) as well as courting more business with its other old Austro-Hungarian partners, Czechoslovakia and Hungary. But what Slovenes dream of is one day being admitted to the EC. "It's not size that makes a country successful," says Josip Skoberne, head of the international division of the Slovene Chamber of Economy, citing EC-member Luxembourg, far smaller in population and area than Slovenia. "It's your ability to engage in international trade that makes you viable." Finding new markets in the West is all the more urgent with the certain decline in Slovenia's trade with the rest of Yugoslavia. A quarter of all goods produced in Slovenia are purchased by other Yugoslavs, and Slovene leaders counted on maintaining these ties even after declaring independence. But the recent fighting, they believe, ended all hope of economic union. "Unbelievable," scoffs Mr. Skoberne as he reads a letter telefaxed from the council of Banja Luka, a town with a large Serbian population in the province of Bosnia-Hercegovina, decreeing that all Slovene-owned assets in the city are to be inventoried and frozen. One of the major motivations behind Slovenia's independence grab was to free itself from the "Yugoslav risk" that hampered most attempts to attract foreign investment. Now, Mr. Skoberne and others worry about an emerging "Slovene risk." At the stock exchange, Mr. Veselinovic frets that his post-independence plans to trade in gold, commodities and foreign currencies are jeopardized by the uncertainty engulfing Slovenia. "We had been getting a lot of interest from abroad, but they won't invest now while things are so unsettled," he says. "But this is only logical. I wouldn't do it, either."

slovenia bonds;post-independence plans;slovene risk;national identity;independence declarations;european community;yugoslavia;industrial output

WSJ910710-0148

Politics & Policy: Report on Los Angeles Police Department Finds Racism, Suggests Changes, Gates's Resignation ---- By David J. Jefferson and Sonia L. Nazario Staff Reporters of The Wall Street Journal

While the commission stopped short of blaming Chief Gates for these problems, it said that no chief should serve more than two consecutive five-year terms, and that Mr. Gates, having served 13 years, should therefore turn in his badge following a transition period. But the chief, who has remained steadfast through repeated calls from community leaders for his ouster, said later: "I don't expect to just run away" from the job. Nearly one-quarter of 650 officers responding to a commission survey agreed that "racial bias on the part of officers toward minority citizens currently exists and contributes to a negative interaction between police and community," and in some cases "may lead to the use of excessive force," the report said. A scant eight hours is devoted to cultural awareness training at the Los Angeles Police Academy, and many officers who train new recruits in the field openly perpetuate the "siege mentality that alienates patrol officers from the community," the commission concluded. Officers commonly typed racial epithets to one another on their patrol car computer systems, such as: "Sounds like monkey slapping time" and "I almost got me a Mexican last night." Yet supervisors made no effort to monitor or control these messages, evidence of a "significant breakdown in the department's management responsibility," the report found. The Los Angeles Police Department has long been emulated by others around the country because of its reputation for being efficient and corruption-free. But the commission called for a shift away from the force's paramilitaristic, us-against-them style, and said the department must embrace the "community-based" policing style that encourages officers to spend less time in their cars and more time interacting with citizens in the communities they serve. "This report will be a must-read for police chiefs around the country," said Hubert Williams, executive director of the Police Foundation, a Washington, D.C., law enforcement research group. "The word is clear: the public expects high quality law enforcement within the parameters of the law." Mr. Williams likened the report to the Knapp Commission, a 1970s blue-ribbon study that exposed widespread corruption in the New York Police Department and led to significant improvements there. "As troubling as some of our findings are . . . they are not unique to Los Angeles," said John A. Arguelles, vice chairman of the 10-member Independent Commission on the Los Angeles Police Department. Among the commission's recommendations are: -- A commission appointed by the mayor that oversees the department should be reorganized and strengthened, and made responsible for handling citizen complaints. It also should be "reconstituted" with members not linked with the current controversy, in the interest of a "fresh start." -- A "major overhaul" of the police disciplinary system and the process used by citizens to file complaints against LAPD officers, especially in excessive force cases, is needed. The current system is "skewed against complainants," by allowing officers' station-house colleagues to investigate complaints, perpetuating a "code of silence" among officers. -- A new community-based police force should focus on "service to the public and prevention of crime" as primary tasks rather than amassing arrest statistics. However, the commission didn't address how Los Angeles would pay for this major overhaul, though Mr. Christopher said that "when you see the costs of settlements accelerating" in police misconduct lawsuits as they have in recent years, "I'm not sure there will be a net cost" increase to implement the changes. But with the city still sharply divided over the future of Chief Gates, and a general feeling that taxes are high enough already, it's questionable whether there will be a popular groundswell to immediately fund changes. Over the years, the city council and the mayor have been reluctant to even add additional officers to the LAPD. Of the six largest police departments in the U.S., the nation's second largest city has the fewest officers per thousand residents. There are 8,450 officers here for more than 3.5 million people; Chicago, with a smaller population, has 12,000. However, Michael Yamaki, one of the city's five police commissioners, believes that given the systemic problems in the department that have come to light, "citizens now will be more willing to fund police issues." The commission's recommendations will now be reviewed by the City Council, which will weigh whether to adopt them in whole or in part. Ultimately, voters must decide several issues, including whether to set term limits on the chief's tenure. The commission intends to reconvene in six months to assess the progress. Even before the commission's report was issued, community groups that monitor the LAPD noted a decline in brutality complaints. The harsh tone of the report was welcome vindication for community leaders who have claimed that police brutality is widespread. The report "proves once and for all that the Rodney King incident was not an aberration," said Ramona Ripston, executive director of the American Civil Liberties Union of Southern California. "Any fair reading of the report constitutes an `F' for {Chief Gates's} job performance." The report shows a particularly damning pattern of acceptance, and even encouragement, of officers who violate the rules governing excessive force. One officer who had seven complaints against him that had been sustained -- as well as numerous others that hadn't been -- was described in his performance evaluation this way: "His contacts with the public are always professional and positive and his attitude with the citizens is one of concern." The report also reveals that racially derogatory remarks are made on an ongoing basis within the department; racist jokes and cartoons appear from time to time on bulletin boards in station locker rooms. Sexism and homophobia abound. Minority officers complain that whites dominate managerial posts within the LAPD, possibly contributing to these problems. More than 80% of the black, Hispanic and Asian police officers in the force are in the entry-level ranks, the report said. But the most surprising part of the report was its recommendation that Chief Gates resign, after a transitional period in which he would begin implementing the commission's proposals. "We're not startled by any of the things in this report," the chief said a few hours after its release. He added that he has worked on his own to accomplish some of what the commission suggested, but has often been stymied by budget cuts. As for the recommendation that he step down, the embattled chief said he will wait until the voters sanction a move to limit a police chief's tenure. Overall, Chief Gates added, "It's a good report. There's a lot of thoughtful recommendations." And the chief said he will stay to implement them. Mayor Bradley said he hopes that Chief Gates's will "follow the commission's recommendations" to "commence the transition to a new chief of police." The mayor, who appointed Gates but lacks the authority to fire him, has previously called for Chief Gates's resignation.

excessive force;rodney king incident;brutality complaints;los angeles;racial bias;police brutality;lapd officers

WSJ910718-0143

Letters to the Editor: Hamilton, Madison Opposed Term Limit

For that reason and others, the Constitutional Convention unanimously rejected term limits and the First Congress soundly defeated two subsequent term-limit proposals. Hamilton, who did not even support term limitations on the presidency, reasoned that imposing limits "would be a diminution of the inducements to good behavior." Madison said that some members of Congress will "by frequent re-elections, become members of long-standing; will be thoroughly masters of the public business." In fact, that has been the case. Over the years, term limits would have unseated Daniel Webster and Henry Clay 10 years before they forged the 1850 Compromise that held the Union together. Term limits would have cost us Everett Dirksen, who rallied Republicans around early civil-rights bills and Florida's own Claude Pepper, who long defended Social Security and Medicare against revenue raids. It was not the Federalists but their adversaries who clamored for term limits, perhaps because they were then out of power. Robert Livingston said it best at the New York convention to ratify the Constitution: "The people are the best judges who ought to represent them. To dictate and control them, to tell them who they shall not elect, is to abridge their natural rights." T.K. Wetherel Speaker Florida House of Representatives Tallahassee, Fla.

constitutional convention;term limitations;natural rights;first congress;frequent re-elections;subsequent term-limit proposals;term limits

WSJ911030-0008

Reform Congress By Limiting Committee Stints ---- By Albert R. Hunt

But as Mr. Hart summarized their findings, the discussion quickly centered on the dismay and disgust many voters feel about politics and government these days. The reaction in the room was one of "deep depression," according to one participant. Another described it as "combustible." The Hart-Bailey report found the public "downbeat" about the way the country is going, convinced that Washington politicians are "more concerned with political self-preservation" than with the public good. Average citizens, the pollsters found, believe they "simply are not being heard in Washington," and more and more are losing confidence in the electoral system as a means of influencing government. Accordingly, these politicians may be in real trouble this year. The 1990 election offered some early warning signs. True, 96% of all incumbents were re-elected. But a few days after the election, political analyst Alan Baron offered a revelation: For the first time since World War II the average re-election margin of House incumbents from both parties declined from the previous election. Normally, when Republicans have a good year, Democrats' average victory margin declines, and vice versa. But in 1990, voters declared a plague on both parties' houses, underscoring what polls and other focus groups demonstrate: The disaffection with politicians isn't ideological. Voters don't want more conservative or more liberal representation; they want more responsive representation. This helps explain the strong momentum for limiting lawmakers' terms, a sentiment fueled by the recent disclosures of the House banking and restaurant fiascos. Term limits would accomplish few of their proponents' goals -- more-independentminded and less-beholden lawmakers -- and would result in many unintended consequences-far more power accruing to unelected staff and special-interest lobbyists. But that's of little concern to frustrated voters who are lashing out because nothing else seems to work. Plainly, Congress can best address this frustration by doing a better job on the issues bothering people-health care, taxes, jobs. But there's little consensus among either politicians or the voters themselves on these issues. So progress will be slow. Congress can make some symbolic moves, however. It can eliminate its more indefensible perquisites, such as the free prescription drugs. More important, lawmakers ought to overhaul the disgraceful campaign-finance system to make congressional elections more competitive, and to reduce the role of money and influence peddlers in campaigns. Granted, incumbents have little incentive to work against their narrow self-interest. But the threat of term limits or of electoral defeat focuses even the narrowly self-interested mind. But there also have to be more fundamental changes in Congress's cozy arrangements. The nexus of many of the problems -- entrenched arrogance, more concern for powerful interests than average citizens and the obscene preoccupation with campaign contributions -- is the committee system. A powerful antidote would be to limit committee service, which would have few of the political and constitutional drawbacks of term limits. The case is well articulated by two of the most experienced congressional observers: Richard Fenno, a University of Rochester political scientist and author of numerous books on Congress, and Charles Ferris, an attorney who served as chief counsel to both former Senate Majority Leader Mike Mansfield and former House Speaker Thomas P. O'Neill. While both men are deeply dismayed at the current state of Congress, they see term limits as a cure worse than the illness. "Term limits really hit at democracy," says Prof. Fenno. Argues Mr. Ferris: "Voters never should be prevented from electing a person who they think is the best representative of that community." But they see a lot of virtue in limiting committee assignments. "This really would challenge these guys to shake up the system," says Mr. Fenno, noting that the power of interest groups is centered in committees. Mr. Ferris believes this would "put a vitality in the system" while not resulting, unlike overall term limits, in "a bunch of neophytes who'd be more dependent on staff and lobbyists." Mr. Ferris notes that the current system, in which a lawmaker gets a cherished committee assignment in his first or second term and then stays there for the rest of his tenure, breeds staleness. "Technology and economics and world dynamics are moving so quickly, but many of these members, while very bright, are locked into outdated beliefs and approaches," he says. If lawmakers had to change areas of expertise every three or four terms, "they wouldn't have the luxury of being intellectually lazy." Currently, the Intelligence committees in both houses and the House Budget Committee limit members to six or eight years. Why shouldn't the Commerce committees and the tax-writing and appropriations panels be subjected to the same limits? Any loss of legislative expertise would be more than offset by new ideas, new receptivity -- new thinking. There'd be one other incalculable benefit. This would drive the lobbyists crazy. --- Mr. Hunt is the Journal's Washington bureau chief.

congressional elections;house incumbents;special-interest lobbyists;washington politicians;average re-election margin;electoral system;average victory margin;term limits;limiting committee assignments